UFC 323 · Dec 06, 2025 · Bantamweight · Completed
Age 39
Height 5' 4"
Reach 64.0"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 27
Height 5' 10"
Reach 70.0"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Switch
Career Averages - Henry Cejudo
3.83 SLpM
47.0% Str. Acc.
3.84 SApM
57.0% Str. Def.
1.78 TD Avg
29.0% TD Acc.
72.0% TD Def.
0.1 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Payton Talbott
6.62 SLpM
56.0% Str. Acc.
3.41 SApM
46.0% Str. Def.
0.78 TD Avg
44.0% TD Acc.
77.0% TD Def.
0.2 Sub. Avg
Henry Cejudo - Fight History
LOSS vs Payton Talbott
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 323 · Dec 06, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Henry Cejudo 0 60 of 116 51% 77 of 136 1 of 7 14% 0 0 2:39
Payton Talbott 1 134 of 217 61% 156 of 240 3 of 5 60% 0 0 3:31
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Henry Cejudo 0 22 of 44 50% 26 of 49 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Payton Talbott 0 40 of 57 70% 50 of 67 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:37
2 Henry Cejudo 0 18 of 38 47% 30 of 52 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:13
Payton Talbott 1 50 of 88 56% 57 of 95 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:36
3 Henry Cejudo 0 20 of 34 58% 21 of 35 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:26
Payton Talbott 0 44 of 72 61% 49 of 78 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:18
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Henry Cejudo 60 of 116 51% 33 of 83 10 of 12 17 of 21 51 of 104 7 of 10 2 of 2
Payton Talbott 134 of 217 61% 89 of 167 34 of 39 11 of 11 90 of 168 28 of 31 16 of 18
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Henry Cejudo 22 of 44 50% 11 of 28 1 of 2 10 of 14 18 of 39 2 of 3 2 of 2
Payton Talbott 40 of 57 70% 28 of 45 7 of 7 5 of 5 29 of 46 4 of 4 7 of 7
2 Henry Cejudo 18 of 38 47% 11 of 30 3 of 4 4 of 4 16 of 34 2 of 4 0 of 0
Payton Talbott 50 of 88 56% 35 of 69 13 of 17 2 of 2 29 of 62 12 of 15 9 of 11
3 Henry Cejudo 20 of 34 58% 11 of 25 6 of 6 3 of 3 17 of 31 3 of 3 0 of 0
Payton Talbott 44 of 72 61% 26 of 53 14 of 15 4 of 4 32 of 60 12 of 12 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Payton Talbott

Angelo picks Payton Talbott, acknowledging Henry Cejudo's Olympic wrestling credentials but believing Cejudo is too old and past his prime. He notes that Talbott is much larger, athletic, and has improved his wrestling since the Hani Barcelos fight. Angelo expects Talbott to use his size and speed to overwhelm Cejudo, despite his personal admiration for Cejudo.

"Payton Talbot's the pick."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 26, 2025 (10 days before fight)
Payton Talbott

Big Brady picks Payton Talbott, noting Cejudo's retirement talk, lack of recent wins, and decline. He highlights Talbott's improvements in takedown defense and scrambling after the Barcelos fight. He expects Talbott to win by third-round knockout.

Talbott by third round knockout
"I'm going to take Payton Tabata to make a statement and get some of the hype he once lost and get that back and then some with the big performance here. Give me Payton Tabata to win by third round …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Dec 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Payton Talbott

Cody is hesitant but picks Talbott, noting that Cejudo's recent fights show he doesn't wrestle enough. He points out that Cejudo's takedown attempts have declined and he relies on striking, where Talbott has a reach advantage. He mentions that Talbott's wrestling looked improved against Felipe Lima. He is tempted by Cejudo's dog odds but doesn't trust him to wrestle.

"If I could trust Henry Cejudo to come out here and make this a wrestling match, I'd be all about Henry Cejudo at like plus 215. The problem is like he doesn't really want to do that anymore."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Payton Talbott

Connor picks Talbott, arguing that Cejudo doesn't want to wrestle and will likely revert to his preferred striking. He notes that Talbott has shown improvement in defensive wrestling since the Barcelos fight, and his pressure-volume style is effective. Connor believes Cejudo can hit takedowns but doubts his ability to stick with a wrestling-heavy game plan, especially at 38. He sees Talbott as a younger, more dynamic striker who understands pace and pressure.

Odds: Cejudo opened +210, now +215; Talbott opened -250, now -255.
"I'm not picking him to win. I mean, I expect him to try, but it's just not what he wants. Even if he tries, can you do it sustainably?"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 27, 2025 (9 days before fight)
Payton Talbott

Daniel picks Talbott, citing Cejudo's age (38), size disadvantage (5'4 vs 5'10), and decline since retirement. He expects Cejudo to have early success but fade, while Talbott's power and athleticism will take over. He notes Talbott's learning from his first loss and improved confidence.

"I'm going to go Payton Talba to come out here and overcome some stuff early and then Cejudo is going to start to gas out and I think Pton Talba's going to put a beating on Triple C."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 29, 2025 (7 days before fight)
Payton Talbott

Lucrative James believes Henry Cejudo is not fully committed to MMA, citing his content creation and retirement talk. He thinks Talbott's relentless pressure and body work will wear down Cejudo, especially in rounds 2 and 3. He notes Talbott's presence and striking flow are exceptional and predicts a round 3 stoppage or decision win.

"Payton Talba is going to go out there and break Henry Ceudo in my opinion."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Payton Talbott

The host expects the fight to be more competitive than the -255 odds suggest but still picks Talbott to land more effective damage and do enough defensive grappling to keep Cejudo from grinding. He predicts a decision win for Talbott.

win by decision; odds comment: minus 255 on Talbet
"I'm expecting this fight to be much more competitive than the minus 255 on Talbet indicates... Talba comes out on top by decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Payton Talbott

Paul picks Talbott, echoing Cody's concerns about Cejudo's wrestling. He notes that Cejudo's best wins came against older or smaller opponents and that he hasn't knocked anyone out since 2020. He believes Talbott's length and accuracy will cause problems for Cejudo, who is reluctant to shoot takedowns. He thinks Talbott wins by decision or TKO.

"I think Payton Taba wins this fight as well. Yeah, wrestling with uh with Frank Oceans, one of the best bases for MMA, I've heard."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Henry Cejudo

The Guru picks Henry Cejudo as a +230 underdog over Payton Talbott. He believes Talbott is being pushed too fast and Cejudo's experience and chin will be too much. The Guru predicts a 29-28 decision win for Cejudo.

plus 230 underdog
"I'm going with Sudo over Payton Tabet by 2928 decision."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Payton Talbott

Zane agrees with Connor, noting that Cejudo's career shows a reluctance to wrestle unless forced. He points out that Talbott's game is built on pressure and volume, similar to Colby Covington's approach, but with actual striking talent. Zane believes Talbott will come in improved after the Lima fight, where he showed better defensive wrestling. He thinks Cejudo's takedowns will be less effective as the fight goes on, and Talbott's pace will overwhelm him.

Same odds commentary as Connor.
"Yes, we're both picking Talbott."
LOSS vs Song Yadong
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song · Feb 22, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Henry Cejudo 0 67 of 133 50% 67 of 133 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Song Yadong 0 84 of 178 47% 84 of 178 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Henry Cejudo 0 13 of 25 52% 13 of 25 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Song Yadong 0 21 of 31 67% 21 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Henry Cejudo 0 29 of 55 52% 29 of 55 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Song Yadong 0 33 of 69 47% 33 of 69 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Henry Cejudo 0 25 of 53 47% 25 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Song Yadong 0 30 of 78 38% 30 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Henry Cejudo 67 of 133 50% 40 of 100 12 of 18 15 of 15 67 of 132 0 of 1 0 of 0
Song Yadong 84 of 178 47% 46 of 133 14 of 21 24 of 24 82 of 176 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Henry Cejudo 13 of 25 52% 3 of 13 3 of 5 7 of 7 13 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
Song Yadong 21 of 31 67% 6 of 16 5 of 5 10 of 10 19 of 29 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Henry Cejudo 29 of 55 52% 18 of 42 3 of 5 8 of 8 29 of 54 0 of 1 0 of 0
Song Yadong 33 of 69 47% 17 of 49 5 of 9 11 of 11 33 of 69 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Henry Cejudo 25 of 53 47% 19 of 45 6 of 8 0 of 0 25 of 53 0 of 0 0 of 0
Song Yadong 30 of 78 38% 23 of 68 4 of 7 3 of 3 30 of 78 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Henry Cejudo vs. Yadong Song

Round 1
His back against the wall, former two-division champ Cejudo (16-4, 10-4 UFC) finds himself on a rare losing streak, albeit to two of the best bantamweights in the world in Aljamain Sterling and Merab Dvalishvili. The Olympic gold medalist takes a slight step down in competition to face Song (21-8-1, 1 NC; 10-3-1 UFC), who also lost his last fight against a champ-level fighter in Petr Yan. The 135ers are brought to the center of the cage by referee Jason Herzog, and they acknowledge one another and double bump their gloves together. It’s on with the show. Cejudo pump-fakes his hips several times to give the impression of a looming takedown, and Song does not bite on a single one and fires off a heavy low kick. Cejudo rushes forward with a one-two that misses the mark, and he races forward and catches Song at the end of an exchange. Song bounces off the cage and gets back to kicking the wrestler in the lead leg and little else. Song sits down on a counter, but Cejudo is in and out with a body kick before that happens. Cejudo fakes a takedown to come up overt the top with a left hook, and after that fails, he motions low for a level change and attack with a flying knee. Cejudo lets fly a low kick and gets jabbed in the belly for his handiwork. Song uses his range to potshot from afar with jabs, low kicks and reaching left hooks. Cejudo fakes his way in but does not engage in anything other than a low kick of his own, and as Song backs off, Cejudo kicks him in the side. Chants of “USA” rain down in support of the wrestler, and Song takes advantage of the energy by clipping the American with a right hand and further flusters him with low kicks. The two drill one another with low kicks, and Song’s ankle bends awkwardly as he tries to put pressure on it. Cejudo keeps kicking the calf, and he shoots low and comes out swinging high. Song rips a kick to the side, and he nearly splits the guard with an uppercut. Both fighters blitz and pull back before letting things go, and Song sits down on a right hand. When Cejudo kicks the body of his foe, Song cracks him with another right hand. Cejudo is fired up and swings back with a vengeance, and he chases Song around until the bell sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Song
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Song
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Song

Round 2
The fighters high-five to get started again, and then pull back without trading. Song eventually works his way forward, chipping away with kicks to the body. Cejudo surges forward with two hooks, and his low kick is all that lands from it. Song darts back and works the body, and Cejudo says something to him and strikes. Song swipes out with a left hook, and leg kicks fly from both sides. Song splits the guard with a double jab, and his naked leg kick is nearly countered with a right up top. Song backs off the former champ with a few long punches, and he puts a few right hands down the pipe and goes to the body after. Cejudo waves him on, and he comes up top with a right hand when faking a takedown. Cejudo goes after a takedown, and Song shrugs it off and triples up on his jab. They whip kicks at one another, and Cejudo times a solid left. A jumping switch kick from Cejudo lands to the side, and he drops down in pursuit of a takedown. Song’s sprawl shuts it down, and he fires off kicks to the lead leg. One skims the cup, but Cejudo motions that he does not want to pause. As Song keeps kicking, he falls over, and Cejudo charges at him and then backs off. Song allows Cejudo to come in so he can belt him in the face with a pair of hooks, and he trips Cejudo up with his leg kicks and forces a stance switch. Song jabs and jabs, following a few with right hands and beating the elder statesman to the punch. Song gets a right hand in and escapes, only for Cejudo get his hands on him with a fierce right. Song staggers back and is ready to engage, as if he needs to take damage to get out of first gear. Song suddenly drops down for a single, and Cejudo tosses it aside and scores a right hand. The former champion lands another overhand right, and Song clips him with an uppercut. Song stands his man up with a left, and Cejudo wants to bang it out and does just that. A few right hands from “The Messenger” bloody up Song’s nose, and the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Cejudo
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Cejudo
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Cejudo

Round 3
Song wants to pay Cejudo back right out of the gate, surging forward throwing punches. Cejudo stands in the pocket ready for battle, and he fakes his takedown every so often to further open things up on the feet. Song never bites, and instead stands Cejudo up with his sharper punches. The punches from Cejudo open a cut on Song’s cheek, and Song blocks a jump knee and pushes Cejudo aside. The two trade one after the other, not concerned about power and willingly engaging. Cejudo blocks a few punches to throw back, but it is Song’s one-two that gets through. When Cejudo lashes out, Song pushes off with a front kick that lands on the cup. Herzog asks replay to check if this is a direct foul, and after 30 seconds, they get back to it. Cejudo ducks a few jabs and swings hard, and again drops down for a level change only to swing up high. This results in a furious brawl, with Cejudo right there in front of the fighter from China swinging hard. Song jumps at his man with a knee, and Cejudo blocks it just in time. Song knocks Cejudo back during an exchange and grins, and he slaps a kick low and backs off when Cejudo hurls a left hook at him. Cejudo sneaks in a clean right hand to get Song’s attention, and Song pays him back with a clubbing right. Song pushes off with his fingers outstretched, and his fingers jam into both of Cejudo’s eyes like a Three Stooges poke. Herzog pauses the action and tells Song to be careful, and Cejudo asks for a cloth to wipe his eyes while telling Herzog to take a point. Cejudo wipes his eyes out with a wet towel, taking ample time to recover while blinking his eyes repeatedly to clear his vision. Cejudo declares to Herzog that he wants to fight and needs to take the time to see better, and he sits down. The crowd showers him with boos, and Cejudo tells the audience to cool it because he was the recipient of a nasty foul. Cejudo uses the complete five-minute break to clear up, and when they resume, Song still holds his fingers out towards his opponent. Song walks Cejudo down and busts him in the chops, clipping him with a solid uppercut when Cejudo is circling away. Song backs Cejudo against the fence, trying to cut him off and aim long strikes at him like front kicks and jabs. Cejudo ducks back to defend from further uppercuts, and he dodges a jump knee to get to the end of the round. Cejudo complains to his corner that he cannot see, and Herzog is paying close attention to this. Cejudo asks the promotion to call in the doctor, and that he cannot see out of his left eye.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Song
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Song
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Song

Round 4
Herzog allows the third round to complete, and he goes to start the fourth round and calls time, officially bringing in the doctor and waving the fight off. This means that the fighters will be going to a technical decision, and everyone in the building is disappointed. The first three rounds will be scored in their entirety, and a rematch is almost certainly in the cards for these two. After such a terrific start to the event, it is unfortunate for the night to end like this. Both fighters are game to run it back. When they do, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.

The Official Result
Yadong Song def. Henry Cejudo via Unanimous Technical Decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 16, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Song Yadong

Angelo picks Song Yadong despite being a huge Henry Cejudo fan. He notes Cejudo is 38 and hasn't won since 2020, while Song is young, fast, and a clean striker. He thinks Song will look better as the fight goes longer. He will not bet on the fight because he will be rooting for Cejudo and never bets on someone he doesn't think will win.

No bet due to rooting interest
"I think Song wins this fight... I'll be rooting for Henry Cejudo, I want him to win, but I don't think he's going to get it done."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 17, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Song Yadong

Big Brady picks Song Yadong, noting that Henry Cejudo is 38 years old and may not be taking his career seriously, citing an interview where Cejudo was smoking. He believes Song's takedown defense and get-up game have improved significantly since the Stamann fight, and that Song is 11 years younger with a height advantage. He expects Song to win a clear one-sided decision, with Cejudo maybe getting a takedown here or there but being outworked.

by decision
"give me S Yong I I'll say s Yong wins this fight a pretty pretty clear one-sided decision"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Feb 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Song Yadong

Connor picks Song Yadong but is hesitant, noting that if the fight were three rounds he would pick Cejudo. He acknowledges Cejudo's ability to take Song down early and grind, but doubts Cejudo can maintain pace or finish Song. Connor points out that Cejudo's speed may not shock a young fighter like Song, and that Song is very tough to finish.

"if this were a three round fight I would probably pick henry sauto to win it... but it's five rounds and song yadong is younger and harder hitting"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Song Yadong

The host thinks Song's striking style will be too much for Cejudo, who may make the fight closer than odds indicate. He believes the damage Song inflicts will lead to a decision victory.

"I think that song's striking style will end up being too much for shudo here shudo might have some success to make this fight look closer than the odds indicate I still believe that the damage that song will be …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 21, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Song Yadong

The Guru picks Song Yadong by decision, arguing he is more athletic, faster, and has better footwork. He doubts Cejudo's takedown effectiveness, noting he hasn't seen a good takedown from him in years and that opponents often get back up. He believes Song's defensive grappling is strong and that he will outpoint Cejudo on the feet over five rounds, predicting a 48-47 score.

decision win
"I'm gonna go with s Yong I'm gonna go with son Yong and I'm gonna say that song wins this fight by decision three rounds to two four rounds to one"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Song Yadong

Zane picks Song Yadong because he believes Cejudo is too old and knockout-dependent, and Song is younger, harder hitting, and more durable. He notes that Cejudo's last decision win was a robbery over Demetrious Johnson and that he slows down in later rounds. However, Zane expresses disappointment that Song likely won't show any new skills, as he expects a win that teaches nothing new.

"I have to pick song yadong, but the unfortunate truth is it's probably i'm expecting a win where I learn literally nothing new about him"
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · Feb 17, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Merab Dvalishvili 0 74 of 172 43% 167 of 273 5 of 11 45% 1 0 4:23
Henry Cejudo 0 29 of 78 37% 54 of 106 1 of 7 14% 0 0 2:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Merab Dvalishvili 0 16 of 32 50% 42 of 59 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:13
Henry Cejudo 0 11 of 20 55% 36 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:53
2 Merab Dvalishvili 0 34 of 78 43% 49 of 94 2 of 4 50% 1 0 1:46
Henry Cejudo 0 9 of 29 31% 9 of 29 1 of 5 20% 0 0 0:12
3 Merab Dvalishvili 0 24 of 62 38% 76 of 120 2 of 5 40% 0 0 2:24
Henry Cejudo 0 9 of 29 31% 9 of 29 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Merab Dvalishvili 74 of 172 43% 44 of 128 20 of 34 10 of 10 51 of 134 13 of 24 10 of 14
Henry Cejudo 29 of 78 37% 13 of 54 5 of 11 11 of 13 24 of 68 5 of 10 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Merab Dvalishvili 16 of 32 50% 9 of 22 4 of 7 3 of 3 9 of 23 6 of 8 1 of 1
Henry Cejudo 11 of 20 55% 4 of 13 3 of 3 4 of 4 9 of 18 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Merab Dvalishvili 34 of 78 43% 22 of 61 9 of 14 3 of 3 27 of 64 1 of 6 6 of 8
Henry Cejudo 9 of 29 31% 6 of 22 2 of 5 1 of 2 6 of 24 3 of 5 0 of 0
3 Merab Dvalishvili 24 of 62 38% 13 of 45 7 of 13 4 of 4 15 of 47 6 of 10 3 of 5
Henry Cejudo 9 of 29 31% 3 of 19 0 of 3 6 of 7 9 of 26 0 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 11, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Angelo picks Merab Dvalishvili, citing his insane conditioning and relentless chain wrestling. He notes Henry Cejudo gave up four takedowns to Aljamain Sterling and expects Merab to take him down repeatedly. He is rooting for Cejudo but believes Merab's style is the worst matchup for him in the division.

"morab is going to be the pick I will be rooting big time for Henry cejudo here but you got to go morab"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Big Brady picks Merab Dvalishvili to win by decision. He praises Merab's relentless pace and volume, referencing his record 49 takedown attempts against Petr Yan. He believes Cejudo, at 37 and coming off a layoff, will struggle to keep up. He compares it to the Jose Aldo fight where Merab lost all takedowns but still won via pressure and cage control. He expects a similar outcome here.

Merab by decision
"I'm taking Mor Rob here I'm taking Mor Rob by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Henry Cejudo

Cody leans toward Cejudo as an underdog, thinking his Olympic-level wrestling could neutralize Merab's takedown-heavy game. He notes that Cejudo is a natural flyweight and may not be outsized by Merab. He questions whether Merab's wrestling will be effective against a gold medalist. He sees value in Cejudo at plus money.

"I have interest in the underdog Henry cejudo um just because I think he obviously being a Olympic champion in wrestling can maybe thwart uh Mor's best path to Victory which is nonstop attacking takedowns."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Daniel Vreeland picks Merab Dvalishvili, emphasizing his youth, cardio, and relentless pace. He notes Merab's 49 takedown attempts against Petr Yan and his ability to outwork opponents. He questions Cejudo's motivation and training situation, suggesting he is not in the same shape as during his championship run. He believes Merab's pressure and volume will fatigue Cejudo and lead to a decision win.

"I think Merab is going to win too... I think he gets it done here."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Dvalishvili's high cardio, pace, and output overwhelm opponents, forcing mistakes. Cejudo has technical advantages but his prime is past. Expects Dvalishvili to win by decision.

"give me deales fi by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Paul picks Merab, citing his non-stop pressure and takedown volume. He notes that Merab's wrestling is his staple, and even if he doesn't hold Cejudo down, the constant takedown attempts will wear on Cejudo. He references Merab's win over Petr Yan, where he attempted 49 takedowns, and his ability to out-strike Aldo without any takedowns. He believes Merab's cardio and pace will be too much for Cejudo.

"yeah man because that ability to just keep going the non-stop pressure in the action so I I think that that eventually grinds away as audo and uh gives him a points Victory."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

The MMA Guru picks Merab Dvalishvili, citing his size advantage, cardio, and pressure. He notes Cejudo's inactivity and overthinking in the Aljamain Sterling fight. He believes Merab's grappling and pace will annoy Cejudo, even if Cejudo gets back up. He mentions a conspiracy about Cejudo firing his coach, but ultimately trusts Merab's momentum.

"I'm going with Merab... Morab's got not that bad standup... monstrous cardio and you're giving him a size and mass advantage over Cejudo."
Decision (split) (47–48, 48–47, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo · May 06, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Aljamain Sterling 0 135 of 210 64% 186 of 261 4 of 15 26% 0 0 4:00
Henry Cejudo 0 99 of 174 56% 143 of 219 3 of 8 37% 0 0 5:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Aljamain Sterling 0 20 of 34 58% 29 of 43 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:37
Henry Cejudo 0 7 of 18 38% 15 of 26 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:47
2 Aljamain Sterling 0 29 of 55 52% 29 of 55 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Henry Cejudo 0 31 of 53 58% 31 of 53 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:02
3 Aljamain Sterling 0 26 of 29 89% 45 of 48 1 of 6 16% 0 0 1:30
Henry Cejudo 0 15 of 29 51% 38 of 53 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:43
4 Aljamain Sterling 0 36 of 52 69% 52 of 68 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:38
Henry Cejudo 0 19 of 33 57% 24 of 38 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:46
5 Aljamain Sterling 0 24 of 40 60% 31 of 47 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:15
Henry Cejudo 0 27 of 41 65% 35 of 49 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:48
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Aljamain Sterling 135 of 210 64% 51 of 112 50 of 60 34 of 38 103 of 174 24 of 28 8 of 8
Henry Cejudo 99 of 174 56% 35 of 99 30 of 37 34 of 38 82 of 152 16 of 21 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Aljamain Sterling 20 of 34 58% 5 of 15 10 of 12 5 of 7 12 of 25 3 of 4 5 of 5
Henry Cejudo 7 of 18 38% 3 of 13 1 of 1 3 of 4 7 of 16 0 of 2 0 of 0
2 Aljamain Sterling 29 of 55 52% 10 of 33 11 of 14 8 of 8 28 of 53 1 of 2 0 of 0
Henry Cejudo 31 of 53 58% 10 of 26 7 of 11 14 of 16 29 of 51 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Aljamain Sterling 26 of 29 89% 12 of 15 11 of 11 3 of 3 17 of 20 7 of 7 2 of 2
Henry Cejudo 15 of 29 51% 7 of 19 5 of 6 3 of 4 10 of 23 4 of 5 1 of 1
4 Aljamain Sterling 36 of 52 69% 11 of 25 13 of 14 12 of 13 27 of 42 8 of 9 1 of 1
Henry Cejudo 19 of 33 57% 7 of 20 5 of 6 7 of 7 16 of 30 3 of 3 0 of 0
5 Aljamain Sterling 24 of 40 60% 13 of 24 5 of 9 6 of 7 19 of 34 5 of 6 0 of 0
Henry Cejudo 27 of 41 65% 8 of 21 12 of 13 7 of 7 20 of 32 7 of 9 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
UFC Bantamweight Title Fight: Aljamain Sterling vs. Henry Cejudo
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Cejudo (-115), Sterling (-105)

Round 1
This one is for all the marbles, and a fair amount of divisional glory as well. Sterling (22-3, 14-3 UFC) will be trying to set the UFC bantamweight record by notching his third successful title defense, while Cejudo (16-2, 10-2 UFC) would like nothing more than to get his old belt back. The winner of this pairing will elevate themselves in the all-time rankings at bantamweight, and they will have 25 minutes to figure it out. Like the legion of fans in the Prudential Center, referee Herb Dean is excited for how this one will play out. The fighters share a stern glove touch, and let the games begin. Sterling comes out aggressively, and he leads the dance with an early head kick. They clash shins at the same time, and Sterling recovers and kicks the leg. Cejudo ignores a few low kicks and backs away when Sterling leaps at him with a flying knee. Cejudo dodges a body kick, and he counters with a right hand. Sterling stalks him down and reaches out with a swatting right up high and left to the body. Cejudo tries to catch leg, and he elects to snatch up a body lock and easily take the champ to the mat. Sterling sits up against the wall, and Cejudo holds on in half guard until Sterling sets up butterfly hooks. Cejudo drops down to grab hold of a guillotine choke with Sterling on his knees, and Sterling breaks the grip but is holding Sterling’s head down. Sterling explodes to his feet, and he eats a leg kick and a right hand on the way. Sterling loads up with a body kick, and Cejudo catches it and whiffs with a huge right hand. Sterling snipes him with his superior range, and Cejudo pushes forward into a clinch. Sterling considers a level change, and Cejudo staves it off and again presses on the back of Sterling’s neck to keep him low. They stand up, and Sterling hunts for a single-leg with Cejudo against the cage. The crowd opens up with chants for “Henry” despite Sterling the fighter from the area, and Sterling manages to take that energy and muscle the ex-champ down to his knees. Sterling cannot keep him down or take his back, and he slams a few knees to the side before Cejudo stands. Sterling hits a mat return, and he snatches up back control and gets one hook in. Cejudo looks to break up the leg wrap, and Sterling knees his man in the thigh a few times and swings with a huge punch right before the bell sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Sterling
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Sterling
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Sterling

Round 2
Cejudo starts off the second frame with a calf kick, and Sterling greets him with sharp jab and a body kick. Sterling jumps with a switch kick that lands on the shoulder, and Cejudo is still trying to find his distance. Cejudo connects with a calf kick, and Sterling shoots in on him. Sterling shoulder rolls a few punches, and he sticks Cejudo with a straight left. They trade low kicks, and Sterling catches a kick only to get caught with an uppercut to let it go. Cejudo presses the action and shocks Sterling with a head kick, and the champion reels and reaches out with a right hook. Sterling pushes out a front kick, turns to dodge a head kick, and he intercepts Cejudo with a knee to the guts. Sterling surprises his foe with a left hook when faking with a front kick, and he throws kicks to all targets to fluster the ex-flyweight. Sterling shoots in for a takedown, and Cejudo stops it in its tracks with ease. Sterling gets in a left hand, and when Cejudo counters, Sterling is there to catch him with a strike and be out of harm’s way in time. Cejudo puts some mustard into an overhand right, and Sterling jukes and keeps moving. “Funk Master” retains his awkward movement and strange angles, and this allows him to take most of the steam out of the heavy strikes Cejudo throws. Cejudo backs his man up with a straight right to the pectorals, and Sterling spins him around with a calf kick. Cejudo walks into a left hand, and he tries to hop forward with a hook only to get backed off. Sterling quickly spins with an elbow, and Cejudo looks for answers and loads up on a power right. When Sterling ducks away, Cejudo nearly dislodges his dome with a head kick. Sterling slides away and gets a straight left out, and he keeps a high guard to blow what comes back immediately. Sterling digs a punch to the body, and Cejudo replies with a few punches up top. Sterling kicks the side, and Cejudo looks for a takedown only to get shut down. Cejudo wings a monster right hand, and Sterling brushes past it and looks to trip Cejudo down. The wild scramble allows Cejudo to land on top, but the round ends before anything comes from it.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Sterling
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Sterling
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Sterling

Round 3
Cejudo practically comes out sprinting from his corner, and the two engage in a series of leg kicks. Cejudo breaks this up with one to the ribcage, and Sterling ducks down with a jab. Cejudo times a perfect flying knee that skims off the top of the head, and Sterling drops down to shoot in for a takedown. Cejudo sprawls perfectly and is pushed down to the floor, with no submission or anything from Cejudo. “The Messenger” lets him back up, and Sterling thanks him with a big right hand. Sterling shoots for another takedown, and this time, Cejudo makes him pay for this try with a stern knee. Sterling pursues another from a different angle, and Cejudo defends it and turns his foe around to push him to the fence. Sterling gets off a short knee while they jockey for position, and Sterling trips out a leg and drops Cejudo to the floor. Sterling sneaks his right leg in for a potential hook, and Cejudo hangs onto Sterling’s left arm but cannot keep the gold medalist grounded. Sterling lets him up so that he can smash Cejudo in the face with a clean knee, and he aims one more to the body. Sterling looks for another takedown entry, and Cejudo tosses him out of the way. Sterling lands a left, and Cejudo replies with a right and sprawls to stop a naked takedown. Cejudo nearly circles around to the side, and Sterling answers by switching up for a single. Cejudo keeps his chest pressed on the back of Sterling’s head to stop the takedown from getting anywhere, and he hammers Sterling with a punch before waving Sterling back up. Sterling obliges and they trade body kicks. Sterling fires off a one-two into a level change, and Cejudo stops it but absorbs a pair of flush knees to the torso. Cejudo hits a trip, plopping Sterling on his back with seconds to spare, and he rides out the remainder of the round in the guard.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Sterling
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Cejudo
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Cejudo

Round 4
The championship rounds are upon them, and Sterling scores a few low kicks to start them off. Sterling swings a left hand, and Cejudo answers with a leg kick. The champ measures a kick to the side, and he loads up with another. Cejudo tries to fire back a low kick, and Sterling strikes the same spot and then has one calf kick checked. Cejudo blocks one and lunges forward, with a right hand connecting before Sterling is able to escape. Sterling sits down on a leg kick, and he follows with a right hand. Cejudo steps in with a knee and two punches, and these two are striking tit-for-tat one after the other. Sterling stings the calf with a shin, prompting Cejudo to charge at him with his fists out to clinch up. Cejudo cannot keep him tied up, and he tosses him away and catches a kick to release a left hand over the top. Sterling sticks out a jab and fails for a takedown, and he nails the calf with another kick. Sterling snaps the head back courtesy of a sharp jab, and Cejudo walks through a kick on his calf to consider a takedown. Sterling breaks free and aims a punch high and a kick low. Cejudo fakes a takedown and walks Sterling down to smack him with a shovel uppercut, and Sterling knees him in the liver. Cejudo grabs the raised leg but cannot elevate him, and Sterling turns the corner and knees his foe in the body. Cejudo whips Sterling around and uses a head lock to drag Sterling to the mat. Sterling pushes through to attack a double, and Cejudo does a whole split but cannot stop Sterling from taking him down. Sterling laces up the leg and lands a few right hands, and Cejudo bursts back up and gets slugged in the chops before the horn blares.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Sterling
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Sterling
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Sterling

Round 5
Sterling points at the ground and says “Let’s go” to start off the last round, and the bantamweights meet in the middle of the cage for five more minutes of combat. Cejudo charges, ignoring a leg kick and launching one up high off the shoulder. Sterling slaps another calf kick to the swollen leg of his opponent, and Cejudo blocks one to his liver to follow. Sterling circles on the outside to avoid the looping strikes of his opponent, and Cejudo steps in with a solid body kick. Sterling gives two right back, and he whiffs on a big right hand. Cejudo charges recklessly, face-first into a right hand, but he pays it no mind as he strikes the side with his shin. Cejudo is pressuring aggressively, and Sterling backs him away with a few punches and a high kick. Cejudo scores a right hand as he comes in, and the fans rain down cheers for “Henry” again. Sterling spins with a back kick as Cejudo is kicking low, breaking up this attack. Cejudo stuns the champ with a left hand, and Sterling blinks it out and fights off a single. Cejudo lets it go and cracks Sterling with a right hand and follows it with a leg kick. Sterling reaches out with a right that misses the mark, and he boots the liver as Cejudo takes a look at the clock. Sterling slips a punch and sticks a straight left out, and Cejudo absorbs a calf kick and stuffs a takedown. Cejudo knees the body a few times and looks to follow it with an uppercut, and Sterling rolls with a punch and gets tied up. Sterling backs away from the advancing Cejudo, who grabs hold of a single and lifts Sterling’s leg in the air. Sterling topples down to his seat, but he powers right back up to his feet with Cejudo holding on from behind. Sterling tries to break the grip, and he spins around to get tied up. Cejudo lets go with clinch punches and knees, and the fight has reached its conclusion. It might go either way, possibly depending on the scoring of the second round. In victory, Sterling becomes the first bantamweight champion in UFC history to record three consecutive title defenses. One of the most underappreciated champs in the company is received by a series of boos, but Sterling lets it slide off like water off a duck’s back.
The defending champ calls out Sean O’Malley for his next challenge, and O’Malley enters the cage wearing a jacket reminiscent of “Thriller” by Michael Jackson. O’Malley steps right up to Sterling’s face and constantly repeats the line “you better do better than that.” UFC head Dana White gets between them, and Sterling calls for O’Malley to be removed from his cage. O’Malley approaches Sterling’s teammate, Merab Dvalishvili, who grabs his jacket, puts it on himself and runs away. Sterling is ready to go help out his teammate should a skirmish break out, with O’Malley hurling expletives and middle fingers until his red coat is returned. The security prevents anything bad from arising, and Sterling takes the mic again and tells O’Malley that they will fight in September. After this cools down, Cejudo is given the microphone, and he removes his gloves. Cejudo expresses his disappointment for the close fight, but holds no ill will towards the man that defeated him. Quoting “Talladega Nights,” Cejudo states that “If I’m not first, I’m last” and says this might be the last time he competes. If he fights again, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Cejudo (49-46 Sterling)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Cejudo (48-47 Sterling)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Cejudo (48-47 Sterling)

The Official Result
Aljamain Sterling def. Henry Cejudo via Split Decision (47-48, 48-47, 48-47)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Aljamain Sterling

Angelo picks Aljamain Sterling despite acknowledging asterisks on his title wins (illegal knee, split decision, TJ Dillashaw with one arm). He believes Sterling's size and activity will be decisive, as Sterling is a weight bully and has been fighting consistently while Cejudo returns after three years. Angelo is rooting for Cejudo but thinks the layoff and cardio questions are too much to overcome. He notes Cejudo's Olympic wrestling credentials but doubts he can take down the much larger Sterling.

"I have to go with the current champion who is more active who is much larger I have to go with Al Jermaine Sterling here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked May 1, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Aljamain Sterling

Big Brady picks Sterling due to activity, youth, volume, and size advantages. He notes Cejudo's three-year layoff is a major concern, especially at lower weight classes. He acknowledges that if prime Cejudo shows up, he should win, but he's not confident in that. He mentions Sterling's reach and height advantages and that Sterling is in his prime training with Merab Dvalishvili. He says this is his least confident pick on the card and he's likely not betting it.

Least confident pick on the card; likely not betting this fight
"I'm gonna go with Sterling here in this matchup but if we do get Prime sahudo he should win this fight I'm just not sure if we will get that so give me Sterling to win this fight I'll say …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked May 3, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Aljamain Sterling

Cody acknowledges the massive question marks around Henry Cejudo's three-year layoff and whether he can replicate his past success. He gives Sterling advantages in speed, striking, grappling, and recent experience, but notes that Cejudo's constant pressure could exploit Sterling's tendency to fade in later rounds. He suggests playing Sterling live after the first round for a better price rather than betting pre-fight, and only as a small play if nothing else on the card jumps out.

Live betting after first round; only small play on top line
"I just feel like for this price on algeman Sterling I would have to play now not something I'm super confident in I would only put it on the top line just like last week's rookie Simone pick"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked May 4, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Henry Cejudo

Connor leans toward Cejudo, citing raw speed as a major factor and noting that Cejudo is the fastest fighter Sterling has faced since Marlon Moraes. He believes Cejudo's pressure and willingness to take risks will be effective, and that Cejudo will land the bigger shots. Connor acknowledges the age and ring rust concerns but is willing to take that flyer.

"So I think I'm going to lean Henry Sahutto here. I'm going to take the age flyer. I'm going to take the time off flyer."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 1, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Henry Cejudo

The host believes Henry Cejudo's speed, explosiveness, and defensive grappling will be too much for Aljamain Sterling. He notes that Cejudo is difficult to take down and control, and his calf kicks and power punching could be key. He expects Cejudo to win by knockout in the third or fourth round, assuming he hasn't regressed too much from the layoff.

Cejudo by knockout, round 3 or 4
"I think that suhuru hasn't you know regressed too much after being out of the cage for as long as he has but if he comes by even 90 of what he used to be I think he has a …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 3, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Aljamain Sterling

Paul agrees with Cody's reasoning, noting that while Cejudo could return like Jon Jones or GSP, the three-year layoff is a major unknown. He highlights Sterling's seven-inch reach advantage and massive speed advantage from training with Rob Font. He says it's 'algermane or pass' for him but doesn't feel he has an edge betting-wise, so he likely won't place a bet.

"it's it's algermane or pass for me right now but I don't know if I'm going to get to get to it from a betting perspective"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked May 1, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Aljamain Sterling

The Guru leans toward Sterling, citing Cejudo's three-year layoff and age (36) as major factors. He believes Sterling's reach and height advantages will allow him to pick at Cejudo from range with front kicks and jabs. He also notes that Cejudo's wrestling may be neutralized by Sterling's body triangle, which can burn rounds. However, he admits it's a 50-50 fight and hopes Cejudo wins for entertainment, showing low confidence.

"aljo's gonna win it's a 50-50 fight I'm leaning towards Al Jermaine Sterling here"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 4, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Aljamain Sterling

Zane picks Sterling, noting that he always starts strong with a clear game plan and is underrated for his toughness and resilience. He highlights Sterling's high output, body work, and weapons like knees and uppercuts to counter shorter fighters. Zane acknowledges the risk of Sterling getting caught or fading late, but believes Sterling's grappling danger and ability to take Cejudo's back are key advantages.

"Yeah, I'm going to stick with Alderman Sterling. I mean, I think if I assume ring rest to be a factor at all, all I know is Alderman Sterling always starts."
WIN vs Dominick Cruz
TKO (knee and punches) R2 4:58 · UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · May 09, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Henry Cejudo 1 53 of 83 63% 56 of 86 1 of 5 20% 0 0 0:14
Dominick Cruz 0 33 of 81 40% 33 of 81 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Henry Cejudo 0 19 of 29 65% 21 of 31 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:08
Dominick Cruz 0 14 of 29 48% 14 of 29 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Henry Cejudo 1 34 of 54 62% 35 of 55 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:06
Dominick Cruz 0 19 of 52 36% 19 of 52 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Henry Cejudo 53 of 83 63% 24 of 50 6 of 8 23 of 25 44 of 70 0 of 2 9 of 11
Dominick Cruz 33 of 81 40% 15 of 58 8 of 11 10 of 12 31 of 78 2 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Henry Cejudo 19 of 29 65% 3 of 10 2 of 3 14 of 16 18 of 28 0 of 0 1 of 1
Dominick Cruz 14 of 29 48% 4 of 16 6 of 7 4 of 6 14 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Henry Cejudo 34 of 54 62% 21 of 40 4 of 5 9 of 9 26 of 42 0 of 2 8 of 10
Dominick Cruz 19 of 52 36% 11 of 42 2 of 4 6 of 6 17 of 49 2 of 3 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2020 (9 days before fight)
Dominick Cruz

Big Brady picks Dominick Cruz as an underdog, citing his movement, speed, volume, and takedown defense. He believes Cruz can outpoint Cejudo if he avoids Cejudo's power and the fight stays on the feet. He sees value in Cruz at plus 185 and plans to bet it, predicting a close decision win.

Cruz by decision; Cruz plus 185; will bet that
"I'm going to be taking Dominic Cruz here. ... I think he's going to be the more active fighter as long as he avoids that huge right hand from Cejudo."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 5, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Henry Cejudo

Daniel Levi is extremely confident in Henry Cejudo, calling him an all-time great and dismissing Cruz's chances. He highlights Cejudo's wins over DJ, TJ, and Moraes, and his championship adjustments. Levi believes Cruz is in denial, hasn't evolved, and will be finished within two rounds, noting that Cejudo will pounce if he drops Cruz, unlike Cody Garbrandt.

finishes Cruz within two rounds
"Henry cejudo will put down many crews down within two rounds and he's gonna be the first guy to stop him with strikes"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked May 6, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Dominick Cruz

Matt picks Cruz as an underdog, citing his footwork, height advantage, and ability to frustrate Cejudo. He questions Cejudo's striking entries and recovery from shoulder surgery, and believes Cruz can win a decision. He sees value at plus money but is not betting due to other viable dogs on the card.

Dominick Cruz by decision
"I'm picking Dominick Cruz to win by a decision the bet would be Dominick Cruz if he can get him at plus 200"
WIN vs Marlon Moraes
TKO (punches) R3 4:51 · UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes · Jun 08, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Henry Cejudo 0 90 of 171 52% 99 of 182 1 of 4 25% 1 0 2:40
Marlon Moraes 0 57 of 119 47% 59 of 121 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Henry Cejudo 0 5 of 22 22% 5 of 22 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Marlon Moraes 0 16 of 37 43% 16 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Henry Cejudo 0 38 of 84 45% 41 of 87 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marlon Moraes 0 31 of 59 52% 31 of 59 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Henry Cejudo 0 47 of 65 72% 53 of 73 1 of 3 33% 1 0 2:40
Marlon Moraes 0 10 of 23 43% 12 of 25 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Henry Cejudo 90 of 171 52% 73 of 150 13 of 16 4 of 5 45 of 118 19 of 23 26 of 30
Marlon Moraes 57 of 119 47% 35 of 89 7 of 8 15 of 22 54 of 116 2 of 2 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Henry Cejudo 5 of 22 22% 3 of 19 0 of 0 2 of 3 5 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marlon Moraes 16 of 37 43% 4 of 20 3 of 3 9 of 14 16 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Henry Cejudo 38 of 84 45% 31 of 75 5 of 7 2 of 2 27 of 70 11 of 14 0 of 0
Marlon Moraes 31 of 59 52% 24 of 50 1 of 2 6 of 7 30 of 58 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Henry Cejudo 47 of 65 72% 39 of 56 8 of 9 0 of 0 13 of 26 8 of 9 26 of 30
Marlon Moraes 10 of 23 43% 7 of 19 3 of 3 0 of 1 8 of 21 1 of 1 1 of 1
TKO (punches) R1 0:32 · UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dillashaw · Jan 19, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Henry Cejudo 1 18 of 23 78% 18 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
T.J. Dillashaw 0 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Henry Cejudo 1 18 of 23 78% 18 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
T.J. Dillashaw 0 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Henry Cejudo 18 of 23 78% 17 of 22 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 6 0 of 0 15 of 17
T.J. Dillashaw 1 of 3 33% 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Henry Cejudo 18 of 23 78% 17 of 22 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 6 0 of 0 15 of 17
T.J. Dillashaw 1 of 3 33% 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Decision (split) (48–47, 47–48, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC 227: Dillashaw vs. Garbrandt 2 · Aug 04, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Henry Cejudo 0 81 of 134 60% 121 of 174 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:36
Demetrious Johnson 0 51 of 147 34% 80 of 178 3 of 11 27% 0 0 4:37
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Henry Cejudo 0 21 of 32 65% 21 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Demetrious Johnson 0 4 of 29 13% 4 of 29 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Henry Cejudo 0 15 of 29 51% 30 of 44 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Demetrious Johnson 0 11 of 33 33% 19 of 42 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:29
3 Henry Cejudo 0 20 of 28 71% 32 of 40 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:27
Demetrious Johnson 0 10 of 30 33% 12 of 32 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:09
4 Henry Cejudo 0 9 of 18 50% 18 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Demetrious Johnson 0 9 of 19 47% 22 of 32 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:14
5 Henry Cejudo 0 16 of 27 59% 20 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Demetrious Johnson 0 17 of 36 47% 23 of 43 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:45
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Henry Cejudo 81 of 134 60% 23 of 62 19 of 21 39 of 51 73 of 125 7 of 8 1 of 1
Demetrious Johnson 51 of 147 34% 29 of 116 18 of 25 4 of 6 31 of 120 17 of 22 3 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Henry Cejudo 21 of 32 65% 5 of 10 4 of 6 12 of 16 20 of 31 1 of 1 0 of 0
Demetrious Johnson 4 of 29 13% 4 of 28 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 24 3 of 5 0 of 0
2 Henry Cejudo 15 of 29 51% 4 of 11 5 of 5 6 of 13 14 of 27 1 of 2 0 of 0
Demetrious Johnson 11 of 33 33% 5 of 24 5 of 7 1 of 2 9 of 30 2 of 3 0 of 0
3 Henry Cejudo 20 of 28 71% 5 of 13 6 of 6 9 of 9 17 of 25 2 of 2 1 of 1
Demetrious Johnson 10 of 30 33% 6 of 24 3 of 4 1 of 2 8 of 27 2 of 3 0 of 0
4 Henry Cejudo 9 of 18 50% 3 of 12 1 of 1 5 of 5 8 of 17 1 of 1 0 of 0
Demetrious Johnson 9 of 19 47% 5 of 15 3 of 3 1 of 1 4 of 11 2 of 3 3 of 5
5 Henry Cejudo 16 of 27 59% 6 of 16 3 of 3 7 of 8 14 of 25 2 of 2 0 of 0
Demetrious Johnson 17 of 36 47% 9 of 25 7 of 10 1 of 1 9 of 28 8 of 8 0 of 0
Payton Talbott - Fight History
WIN vs Henry Cejudo
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 323 · Dec 06, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Henry Cejudo 0 60 of 116 51% 77 of 136 1 of 7 14% 0 0 2:39
Payton Talbott 1 134 of 217 61% 156 of 240 3 of 5 60% 0 0 3:31
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Henry Cejudo 0 22 of 44 50% 26 of 49 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Payton Talbott 0 40 of 57 70% 50 of 67 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:37
2 Henry Cejudo 0 18 of 38 47% 30 of 52 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:13
Payton Talbott 1 50 of 88 56% 57 of 95 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:36
3 Henry Cejudo 0 20 of 34 58% 21 of 35 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:26
Payton Talbott 0 44 of 72 61% 49 of 78 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:18
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Henry Cejudo 60 of 116 51% 33 of 83 10 of 12 17 of 21 51 of 104 7 of 10 2 of 2
Payton Talbott 134 of 217 61% 89 of 167 34 of 39 11 of 11 90 of 168 28 of 31 16 of 18
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Henry Cejudo 22 of 44 50% 11 of 28 1 of 2 10 of 14 18 of 39 2 of 3 2 of 2
Payton Talbott 40 of 57 70% 28 of 45 7 of 7 5 of 5 29 of 46 4 of 4 7 of 7
2 Henry Cejudo 18 of 38 47% 11 of 30 3 of 4 4 of 4 16 of 34 2 of 4 0 of 0
Payton Talbott 50 of 88 56% 35 of 69 13 of 17 2 of 2 29 of 62 12 of 15 9 of 11
3 Henry Cejudo 20 of 34 58% 11 of 25 6 of 6 3 of 3 17 of 31 3 of 3 0 of 0
Payton Talbott 44 of 72 61% 26 of 53 14 of 15 4 of 4 32 of 60 12 of 12 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Payton Talbott

Angelo picks Payton Talbott, acknowledging Henry Cejudo's Olympic wrestling credentials but believing Cejudo is too old and past his prime. He notes that Talbott is much larger, athletic, and has improved his wrestling since the Hani Barcelos fight. Angelo expects Talbott to use his size and speed to overwhelm Cejudo, despite his personal admiration for Cejudo.

"Payton Talbot's the pick."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 26, 2025 (10 days before fight)
Payton Talbott

Big Brady picks Payton Talbott, noting Cejudo's retirement talk, lack of recent wins, and decline. He highlights Talbott's improvements in takedown defense and scrambling after the Barcelos fight. He expects Talbott to win by third-round knockout.

Talbott by third round knockout
"I'm going to take Payton Tabata to make a statement and get some of the hype he once lost and get that back and then some with the big performance here. Give me Payton Tabata to win by third round …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Dec 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Payton Talbott

Cody is hesitant but picks Talbott, noting that Cejudo's recent fights show he doesn't wrestle enough. He points out that Cejudo's takedown attempts have declined and he relies on striking, where Talbott has a reach advantage. He mentions that Talbott's wrestling looked improved against Felipe Lima. He is tempted by Cejudo's dog odds but doesn't trust him to wrestle.

"If I could trust Henry Cejudo to come out here and make this a wrestling match, I'd be all about Henry Cejudo at like plus 215. The problem is like he doesn't really want to do that anymore."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Payton Talbott

Connor picks Talbott, arguing that Cejudo doesn't want to wrestle and will likely revert to his preferred striking. He notes that Talbott has shown improvement in defensive wrestling since the Barcelos fight, and his pressure-volume style is effective. Connor believes Cejudo can hit takedowns but doubts his ability to stick with a wrestling-heavy game plan, especially at 38. He sees Talbott as a younger, more dynamic striker who understands pace and pressure.

Odds: Cejudo opened +210, now +215; Talbott opened -250, now -255.
"I'm not picking him to win. I mean, I expect him to try, but it's just not what he wants. Even if he tries, can you do it sustainably?"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 27, 2025 (9 days before fight)
Payton Talbott

Daniel picks Talbott, citing Cejudo's age (38), size disadvantage (5'4 vs 5'10), and decline since retirement. He expects Cejudo to have early success but fade, while Talbott's power and athleticism will take over. He notes Talbott's learning from his first loss and improved confidence.

"I'm going to go Payton Talba to come out here and overcome some stuff early and then Cejudo is going to start to gas out and I think Pton Talba's going to put a beating on Triple C."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 29, 2025 (7 days before fight)
Payton Talbott

Lucrative James believes Henry Cejudo is not fully committed to MMA, citing his content creation and retirement talk. He thinks Talbott's relentless pressure and body work will wear down Cejudo, especially in rounds 2 and 3. He notes Talbott's presence and striking flow are exceptional and predicts a round 3 stoppage or decision win.

"Payton Talba is going to go out there and break Henry Ceudo in my opinion."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Payton Talbott

The host expects the fight to be more competitive than the -255 odds suggest but still picks Talbott to land more effective damage and do enough defensive grappling to keep Cejudo from grinding. He predicts a decision win for Talbott.

win by decision; odds comment: minus 255 on Talbet
"I'm expecting this fight to be much more competitive than the minus 255 on Talbet indicates... Talba comes out on top by decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Payton Talbott

Paul picks Talbott, echoing Cody's concerns about Cejudo's wrestling. He notes that Cejudo's best wins came against older or smaller opponents and that he hasn't knocked anyone out since 2020. He believes Talbott's length and accuracy will cause problems for Cejudo, who is reluctant to shoot takedowns. He thinks Talbott wins by decision or TKO.

"I think Payton Taba wins this fight as well. Yeah, wrestling with uh with Frank Oceans, one of the best bases for MMA, I've heard."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Henry Cejudo

The Guru picks Henry Cejudo as a +230 underdog over Payton Talbott. He believes Talbott is being pushed too fast and Cejudo's experience and chin will be too much. The Guru predicts a 29-28 decision win for Cejudo.

plus 230 underdog
"I'm going with Sudo over Payton Tabet by 2928 decision."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Payton Talbott

Zane agrees with Connor, noting that Cejudo's career shows a reluctance to wrestle unless forced. He points out that Talbott's game is built on pressure and volume, similar to Colby Covington's approach, but with actual striking talent. Zane believes Talbott will come in improved after the Lima fight, where he showed better defensive wrestling. He thinks Cejudo's takedowns will be less effective as the fight goes on, and Talbott's pace will overwhelm him.

Same odds commentary as Connor.
"Yes, we're both picking Talbott."
WIN vs Felipe Lima
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · Jun 28, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Payton Talbott 0 59 of 118 50% 97 of 165 0 of 1 0% 0 1 4:49
Felipe Lima 0 26 of 58 44% 37 of 70 3 of 15 20% 0 0 3:23
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Payton Talbott 0 14 of 26 53% 22 of 36 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:43
Felipe Lima 0 10 of 20 50% 17 of 27 1 of 5 20% 0 0 1:45
2 Payton Talbott 0 21 of 46 45% 35 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:52
Felipe Lima 0 9 of 20 45% 11 of 22 1 of 5 20% 0 0 0:30
3 Payton Talbott 0 24 of 46 52% 40 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:14
Felipe Lima 0 7 of 18 38% 9 of 21 1 of 5 20% 0 0 1:08
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Payton Talbott 59 of 118 50% 48 of 103 5 of 7 6 of 8 37 of 93 2 of 2 20 of 23
Felipe Lima 26 of 58 44% 17 of 48 6 of 6 3 of 4 21 of 52 3 of 4 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Payton Talbott 14 of 26 53% 11 of 22 1 of 1 2 of 3 9 of 19 2 of 2 3 of 5
Felipe Lima 10 of 20 50% 8 of 18 1 of 1 1 of 1 7 of 16 1 of 2 2 of 2
2 Payton Talbott 21 of 46 45% 19 of 42 1 of 2 1 of 2 10 of 34 0 of 0 11 of 12
Felipe Lima 9 of 20 45% 5 of 16 3 of 3 1 of 1 8 of 19 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Payton Talbott 24 of 46 52% 18 of 39 3 of 4 3 of 3 18 of 40 0 of 0 6 of 6
Felipe Lima 7 of 18 38% 4 of 14 2 of 2 1 of 2 6 of 17 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Felipe Lima

Angelo picks Felipe Lima because he believes Lima is a better all-around fighter than Payton Talbott, with superior grappling and the ability to mix striking and takedowns. He notes that Talbott's takedown defense was exposed in his last fight, and Lima has better wins in the UFC. He disagrees with the odds, saying both are even prospects and the line should be closer, but he still favors Lima.

Angelo says he does not agree with the odds, implying they are off.
"I am going to pick Felipe because the reality is I think he can do more than Payton can do."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2025 (7 days before fight)
Felipe Lima

Big Brady identifies a clear hole in Payton Talbott's game: his wrestling and ground defense, as seen in the Barcelos fight where he was taken down repeatedly. He notes that Felipe Lima is well-rounded and a high-level grappler who can take Talbott down and control him. Brady believes Lima will use his wrestling advantage to secure a decision win, as Talbott's striking is good but Lima can hang on the feet and then dominate on the mat.

Lima wins by decision
"I got to go Lima with the wrestling grappling upside. And I'll take Lima to win this fight and win it by decision."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Jun 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Payton Talbott

Connor picks Talbott but acknowledges the risk. He believes Talbott is a special striker with a deep understanding of pace and pressure, and that he will likely land big shots early. However, he notes that Lima is incredibly durable and mentally resilient, and that Talbott has shown vulnerability to wrestling and grinding fights. He thinks this is reckless matchmaking for Talbott after his loss.

"I think I'm, I, I, I think I'm going to pick him because I think Philippe Lima is going to end up getting hit brutally hard in a way that he probably never has very quickly into the fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Felipe Lima

The host considers Lima a higher-level prospect than Talbott, expecting Lima to touch him up with combinations and takedown attempts, grinding out a decision win.

win on scorecards
"Lima is a very highlevel prospect and even brighter of a prospect than Peyton Talbet and I think we'll see him touch up Talbet with combinations mix in some slick takedown attempts behind it and eventually grind this fight out …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Felipe Lima

The host picks Felipe Lima, arguing that Talbott's wins have aged poorly and that Lima is more well-rounded. He criticizes Talbott's head movement and ground defense, noting that he gives up his back often. He believes Lima will finish by rear-naked choke in the first or second round, as he is a more proven prospect with better striking and grappling.

rear-naked choke
"I'm actually going to go Filipe Lemur. I know, shock. You didn't see that one coming after I told you I wasn't going to pick Payton Tab to win."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Jun 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Payton Talbott

Zane also picks Talbott but is cautious. He agrees that Talbott is a special striker and that Lima's wrestling may not be enough to exploit Talbott's weaknesses. However, he notes that Lima is a tough, durable fighter who can turn the fight into a war, and Talbott has not been in such a fight before. He thinks there is a strong chance Talbott loses composure.

"I think this is some very short-sighted matchmaking. If they really are viewing Talbot as a future star, because you would want to give this dude a bounce back."
LOSS vs Raoni Barcelos
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–26) R3 5:00 · UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · Jan 18, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Raoni Barcelos 0 49 of 84 58% 59 of 95 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:25
Payton Talbott 0 62 of 85 72% 91 of 115 8 of 15 53% 2 0 9:43
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Raoni Barcelos 0 2 of 2 100% 2 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Payton Talbott 0 8 of 11 72% 19 of 23 3 of 4 75% 1 0 4:51
2 Raoni Barcelos 0 25 of 44 56% 26 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Payton Talbott 0 17 of 22 77% 23 of 28 3 of 8 37% 0 0 2:35
3 Raoni Barcelos 0 22 of 38 57% 31 of 47 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:25
Payton Talbott 0 37 of 52 71% 49 of 64 2 of 3 66% 1 0 2:17
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Raoni Barcelos 49 of 84 58% 39 of 74 7 of 7 3 of 3 37 of 67 7 of 10 5 of 7
Payton Talbott 62 of 85 72% 59 of 81 2 of 3 1 of 1 18 of 30 5 of 5 39 of 50
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Raoni Barcelos 2 of 2 100% 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0
Payton Talbott 8 of 11 72% 8 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 8 of 11
2 Raoni Barcelos 25 of 44 56% 21 of 40 2 of 2 2 of 2 25 of 44 0 of 0 0 of 0
Payton Talbott 17 of 22 77% 14 of 19 2 of 2 1 of 1 11 of 16 2 of 2 4 of 4
3 Raoni Barcelos 22 of 38 57% 18 of 34 4 of 4 0 of 0 11 of 22 6 of 9 5 of 7
Payton Talbott 37 of 52 71% 37 of 51 0 of 1 0 of 0 7 of 14 3 of 3 27 of 35
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Raoni Barcelos vs. Payton Talbott
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Talbott (-1200), Barcelos (+750)

Round 1
A red-hot commodity in flashy, undefeated Talbott (9-0, 3-0 UFC) will serve as the preliminary headliner, hoping to wrest the torch from aging Brazilian Barcelos (18-5, 7-4 UFC) in a pivotal bantamweight affair. Talbott has only heard the final bell one time, while his opponent can say he has been involved with more decisions than Talbott has pro fights. Referee Herb Dean will serve as the arbiter of this bout, and the fighters acknowledge him and one another but do not tap their gloves together. Barcelos starts the fight by leaping at Talbott’s left leg, pursuing a single without letting the youngster get started. Talbott backs himself to the wall and sets up a guillotine choke, but the veteran trips him up and puts him on his seat without fear of the submission. Talbott is loudly warned by grabbing inside of Barcelos’ gloves, and he wall-walks to get back up and lean against the fence. Barcelos laces his legs between his opponent’s in hopes of snaking him down, and he jumps on Talbott’s back to further threaten him. Talbott shakes him off, and Barcelos tries again to be a malicious backpack but settles for pulling the unbeaten fighter face-first to the floor. Barcelos wraps his leg around the waist for a single hook, and Talbott is once more warned for foot grabs. Barcelos times a Talbott scramble perfectly to wrap his forearm around the neck, only to let it go so he can start slugging Talbott on the side of the head. Talbott turns to his side while under fire, and he fights off a choke and finds himself in a second. Barcelos does not have the choke under the chin and is more neck/face cranking him to make his life miserable, and he once more releases it to shift into full mount. The Brazilian drops down a powerful elbow and he moves to half guard to he can set up an arm-triangle choke, squeezing down hard but not going for broke to get it done. Talbott remains calm and composed despite getting dominated, and Barcelos leaps over him and holds him down from the other side while in half guard. Barcelos gets directly to full mount like a hot knife cutting through butter, and he lets Talbott give up his back so he can go for one final choke before time runs out in the round. The one-sided round ends before Barcelos can get it.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Barcelos
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-8 Barcelos
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-8 Barcelos

Round 2
The fighters race towards one another to start the second round, and Talbott is the aggressor as he pushes jabs out to keep Barcelos honest. Barcelos scores a few low kicks, but one is met with a right hand over the top. Barcelos shoots, and Talbott shuts him down. As Talbott slides forward to strike, Barcelos deftly trips him up and places him flat on his back. Barcelos lands immediately in half guard, and he is active on top. Talbott scrambles to get to his knees, and he takes a knee on the chin while freeing himself. Talbott walks Barcelos down with long, straight punches, and Barcelos returns fire with a right hand that leads into a clean takedown. The Brazilian hits the mat on top in side control, and he leaps into full mount uncontested. Barcelos gets a little high, and before Talbott can buck him off or sneak out the back, he moves himself down a bit. This does not matter, as Talbott still escapes to get up, but not before taking a knee on the liver. Talbott is surprised by the strike, opening Barcelos up to nail him with a spinning back fist. The prospect walks forward ready to trade, and he connects with a few punches only to get nailed with a right hand on the way back. Talbott smiles and waves him on, as he is much more comfortable in a wild striking exchange than a grappling affair. Talbott shucks off a takedown and connects with a powerful uppercut, and he fights off another takedown try. On the third, Barcelos manages to wrangle Talbott to the floor, and he gets to half guard and hops to the side to drop down a powerful elbow. As Barcelos is about to set up a crucifix, the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos

Round 3
The bantamweights get right to it to start off the last round, with Talbott pressuring fully and clipping Barcelos with an uppercut. A few more punches are strung together, and Barcelos goes after a telegraphed takedown. Talbott sees it coming and hits a beautiful throw that reverses the Brazilian and puts him on the mat. As “USA” chants echo through the Intuit Dome, Barcelos worms his way to the fencing but absorbs some ground-and-pound to get there. Talbott scores a few punches, and Barcelos tosses his leg up to hook an omoplata shoulder lock. As he does this, he hooks his hand in the fence, and Dean sees it and pauses the fight. Dean offers to take away the position from the foul, and when Talbott says no, they resume in the position they left off. Barcelos explodes back to his feet and blasts the youngster with a flurry of punches, including a flying knee that does some damage. Talbott responds with a flying knee that rocks the Brazilian, and as they both hit the ground from wild strikes, they climb back up and trade again. Barcelos backs off to take some breathes, and Talbott drops his hands and marches forward like a Terminator. Barcelos fakes a level change, and Talbott answers with a spinning wheel kick that slaps him in the face. Barcelos grins and attacks another takedown, landing it and taking some of the wind out of the American’s sails. Talbott turns to his knees, and Barcelos follows him every step of the way and wraps his legs around his waist. Barcelos slides into full mount when Talbott turns to his back, and he sets up an arm-triangle choke. Barcelos releases the choke and sits up to wrench on the arm with an unorthodox straight armbar, and he switches gears for a rear-naked choke that is not under the chin. Talbott signals a thumbs-up, and Barcelos lets it go to pound on Talbott with punctuating ground-and-pound. Barcelos unleashes a fury of punches and elbows, laying down one final bombardment that only ends with 15 minutes elapsing—a few more seconds and he might have gotten the stoppage. The elder statesman put on a show here, shutting down the likely formerly unbeaten prospect and spring what may be “Upset of the Year” with Talbott closing with a betting line around -1200. What a performance, as Barcelos appears to have found the fountain of youth at the tender age of 37.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos (30-26 Barcelos)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos (30-26 Barcelos)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos (30-26 Barcelos)

The Official Result
Raoni Barcelos def. Payton Talbott via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-26)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 12, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Payton Talbott

Angelo is extremely confident in Payton Talbott, citing his youth, speed, and striking ability. He believes the age and speed gap will be decisive and expects Talbott to potentially knock out Barcelos. He warns against betting Talbott at -1200, calling it too risky.

Do not bet on -1200 favorite.
"pyon talot should win this fight now should you bet on him no these are fist fights minus 1200 is far too gone"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Payton Talbott

Cody picks Payton Talbott confidently, viewing him as a rising star. He notes Talbott's exceptional striking, athleticism, and rapidly improving takedown defense. Cody points out that Barcelos is 37 and has slowed down, with recent losses showing regression in wrestling, striking defense, and reflexes. He believes Talbott's speed and power will be too much, and that Barcelos's best days are behind him. Cody expects Talbott to win dominantly, possibly by knockout.

No specific prop bet mentioned, but Talbott is part of the Saftic Super Boost parlay.
"I'm not stepping in front of the tow but... I thought about this long and hard I was like what at what number would I consider betting rowny"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jan 14, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Payton Talbott

Daniel picks Talbott by knockout, citing his volume, power, and swag. He notes that Barcelos is almost 40 and has taken too much damage in recent fights. Daniel mentions that Barcelos is a savvy vet but Talbott is quicker, younger, and more durable. He says he cannot lay -1200 but expects Talbott to win by knockout.

Daniel picks Talbott by knockout. He says he cannot lay -1200 but expects a flashy finish.
"I'm gonna go pay and Tabet here by knockout"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Payton Talbott

The host is a huge Barcelos fan but acknowledges Talbott is a much slicker striker who uses speed and power to land big shots. He expects Talbott to put Barcelos away in under one and a half rounds.

under 1.5 rounds
"he's going up against a much Slicker Striker who utilizes speed and power to land big shots on celos and put him away in under one and a half rounds"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Payton Talbott

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Talbott. He notes that Talbott looks like he's in the Matrix and is a new-generation fighter. Paul believes Barcelos is too slow and past his prime, and that Talbott's speed and striking will be decisive. He also mentions that Barcelos has been taken down and outworked by younger fighters recently. Paul is not stepping in front of the Talbott train.

No specific prop bet mentioned.
"I'm not stepping in front of talbet here bro"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 14, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Payton Talbott

The MMA Guru picks Payton Talbott to win by TKO. He notes Barcelos' chin is deteriorating with age (37), and Talbott is a big bantamweight with reach advantage. He worries about Talbott's activity and social media distractions but believes he will catch Barcelos on the feet. He predicts a KO late in the first or second round.

TKO
"I'm actually going to go with another KO win for pton tabot maybe late in the first or in the second round"
KO (punches) R1 0:19 · UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · Jun 29, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Payton Talbott 1 13 of 13 100% 13 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Yanis Ghemmouri 0 1 of 2 50% 1 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Payton Talbott 1 13 of 13 100% 13 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Yanis Ghemmouri 0 1 of 2 50% 1 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Payton Talbott 13 of 13 100% 12 of 12 0 of 0 1 of 1 4 of 4 0 of 0 9 of 9
Yanis Ghemmouri 1 of 2 50% 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Payton Talbott 13 of 13 100% 12 of 12 0 of 0 1 of 1 4 of 4 0 of 0 9 of 9
Yanis Ghemmouri 1 of 2 50% 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 26, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Payton Talbott

Cody picks Talbott, calling him a future star. He notes that Talbott has excellent footwork, speed, and precision, and that he has finished all his opponents. Cody believes Ghemmouri is a step down in competition and that Talbott will likely win by knockout. He also mentions that Talbott's takedown defense has improved and that he is comfortable striking.

"Payton Talbott is the pick, shocker."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jun 27, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Payton Talbott

Daniel sees Talbott as a rising star with astronomic improvements, citing his win over Cameron Simon as eye-opening. He thinks Ghemmouri is a solid but low-output kickboxer who lacks the 'it factor.' He expects Talbott to eventually make reads and finish, possibly by guillotine or head kick, but acknowledges it could go the distance.

"I'm gonna go with Payton Talbott... it doesn't take a genius to pick like a minus 2,000 favorite but I'm gonna go with Payton Talbott."
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Jun 26, 2024 (3 days before fight)

The host does not discuss this fight at all in the transcript. The entire podcast is focused on the Conor McGregor vs Michael Chandler fight, which is not on the provided fight card. Therefore, no pick is made for this fight.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 25, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Payton Talbott

The host is very confident Talbott will win, calling him one of the best bantamweight strikers. He expects a highlight-reel knockout, noting Talbott's speed, footwork, and improved takedown defense. He criticizes Ghemmouri's management for taking this fight and says Talbott should have no trouble finishing him.

Talbott by knockout at -245
"Look for pton talba to put on an absolute show here a clinic that will lead to a finish over Giannis gamori."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 26, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Payton Talbott

Paul agrees with Cody, noting that Talbott is a massive favorite for a reason. He points out that Talbott has never finished anyone in the first round but wears opponents down with volume. Paul believes Talbott will eventually get a knockout or submission, but the minus-1700 price is too high to bet straight. He suggests the knockout prop at minus-250 as a better option.

"Minus 1700 is insanity... Payton Talbott by knockout is like minus 250 and that's really not that bad."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 25, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Payton Talbott

The Guru picks Payton Talbott over Yanis Ghemmouri. He acknowledges Talbott's hype but notes he is not a future champion. He believes Talbott has composure and finishing potential. He predicts a TKO in the second or third round, but warns that Ghemmouri may have moments and that Talbott should not be such a heavy favorite.

TKO in the second or third round
"I'm going to go with pton tabber... TKO in the second or third round"
TKO (punches) R2 0:21 · UFC on ESPN: Ribas vs. Namajunas · Mar 23, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Payton Talbott 1 79 of 129 61% 83 of 135 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:30
Cameron Saaiman 0 31 of 64 48% 33 of 66 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Payton Talbott 0 59 of 105 56% 63 of 111 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:16
Cameron Saaiman 0 31 of 62 50% 33 of 64 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Payton Talbott 1 20 of 24 83% 20 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
Cameron Saaiman 0 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Payton Talbott 79 of 129 61% 52 of 96 21 of 27 6 of 6 54 of 98 6 of 8 19 of 23
Cameron Saaiman 31 of 64 48% 13 of 40 11 of 17 7 of 7 30 of 63 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Payton Talbott 59 of 105 56% 32 of 72 21 of 27 6 of 6 53 of 96 6 of 8 0 of 1
Cameron Saaiman 31 of 62 50% 13 of 38 11 of 17 7 of 7 30 of 61 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Payton Talbott 20 of 24 83% 20 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 19 of 22
Cameron Saaiman 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Mar 17, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Payton Talbott

Angelo picks Payton Talbott, citing his dangerous striking and the poor performance of Saaiman in his last loss. He notes that Talbott's takedown defense is a concern, but Saaiman is not a great wrestler. He is undecided on a bet but may place a small wager or include Talbott in a high-risk parlay due to the even odds.

possible small bet or parlay
"I like pton the win here he's certainly the more dangerous Striker my only concern is the wrestling"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Payton Talbott

Big Brady picks Payton Talbott, citing his striking volume, power, pressure, cardio, and durability advantages. He notes Saaiman's takedown threat is a concern but believes the fight will primarily be on the feet. He predicts Talbott wins by decision, possibly finishing late.

"I'm going to pick him to win this fight and I think he could potentially get it done late... I'll say Tabit by decision here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Mar 21, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Cameron Saaiman

Cody prefers the known commodity in Saaiman, who has proven his toughness and volume. He notes that Talbott is untested and lost the first round against Nick Aguirre. Cody believes Saaiman's forward pressure and volume will earn him rounds, and he likes the plus money on the underdog.

"I would rather go with the guy I know is good and let po pton talber prove it to me so Cameron Simon slight dog money."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Mar 20, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Payton Talbott

Daniel Vreeland leans toward Payton Talbott, citing his physical attributes, durability, and cardio. He notes Talbott is a slow starter but comes on strong in later rounds, while Saaiman is more technically sound. He expects a competitive fight but thinks Talbott's intangibles edge him out.

"I'm gonna lean with Payton to Edge it out"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Payton Talbott

Talbott is the cleaner striker with good combinations and improving defensive grappling. Saaiman relies on athleticism and power but has been taken down and ground out before. Talbott should keep the fight standing and land cleaner shots, possibly opening up a finish. Saaiman's power is a threat, but Talbott's technical edge should win a decision.

"I think that talber is a cleaner cleaner fighter uh overall here... I'm going to go with talbet I think talbet out strikes him on the feet... wins it on the scorecards."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 21, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Payton Talbott

Paul leans toward Talbott based on his reach advantage and high volume output (145 significant strikes in his Contender Series fight). He acknowledges Saaiman's takedown ability but thinks Talbott's striking and familiarity with the Vegas environment give him an edge. Paul sees it as a close fight.

"I'm ever so slightly leaning towards Talbot most mostly based on what I perceive as if it just turns into a striking match."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Cameron Saaiman

The MMA Guru picks Cameron Saaiman over Payton Talbott, citing Saaiman's kicks and clinch work as key. He thinks Talbott is kickable and that Saaiman's body kicks and low kicks will be effective. He also favors Saaiman's grappling and scrambles. He predicts Saaiman wins a decision, losing the third round.

decision win
"I'm going with Cameron Simon here over Payton tabot... by decision 2928"
WIN vs Nick Aguirre
Submission (rear-naked choke) R3 0:58 · UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig · Nov 18, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Payton Talbott 0 28 of 53 52% 58 of 90 0 of 0 --- 1 0 3:25
Nick Aguirre 0 5 of 12 41% 18 of 29 2 of 10 20% 0 0 5:46
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Payton Talbott 0 1 of 2 50% 5 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Nick Aguirre 0 0 of 3 0% 13 of 20 1 of 4 25% 0 0 4:50
2 Payton Talbott 0 15 of 29 51% 39 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:00
Nick Aguirre 0 4 of 5 80% 4 of 5 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:56
3 Payton Talbott 0 12 of 22 54% 14 of 26 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:25
Nick Aguirre 0 1 of 4 25% 1 of 4 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Payton Talbott 28 of 53 52% 22 of 46 4 of 5 2 of 2 12 of 27 0 of 0 16 of 26
Nick Aguirre 5 of 12 41% 4 of 11 1 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 9 0 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Payton Talbott 1 of 2 50% 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Nick Aguirre 0 of 3 0% 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 3 0 of 0
2 Payton Talbott 15 of 29 51% 14 of 27 1 of 2 0 of 0 5 of 12 0 of 0 10 of 17
Nick Aguirre 4 of 5 80% 3 of 4 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Payton Talbott 12 of 22 54% 8 of 18 3 of 3 1 of 1 6 of 13 0 of 0 6 of 9
Nick Aguirre 1 of 4 25% 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Payton Talbott

Angelo picks Payton Talbott, noting he is a flashy striker with power and movement. He acknowledges Talbott can be out-grappled but expects him to starch his opponent. He comments that the odds at 4-to-1 or 5-to-1 seem wide but the UFC is building him up.

Odds comment: 4-to-1 to 5-to-1 favorite, seems wide
"Payton's going to be the pick and the UFC's clearly trying to build themselves another star by throwing this kid in a main card"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 17, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Payton Talbott

Big Brady thinks Talbott is a big favorite for a reason, with incredible striking and improved takedown defense. He notes Aguirre's striking is non-existent and that Dan Arretta out struck him 27-13. He predicts Talbott will drown Aguirre with volume and finish him in the second round, unless Aguirre gets a first-round submission. He says the price is wide but warranted.

"I think talbat takes over drowns this guy in the in the second round round and and finishes them gets him out of there so give me tabbut to win this fight in very dominant fashion tabut by second round …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert picked Nov 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)

Cody does not make a clear pick for this fight. He notes that Talbott is a huge favorite at -700 but is making his UFC debut, which makes him hesitant. He considers a sprinkle on Aguirre by submission as a dog play but does not commit to a pick.

Cody mentions a possible sprinkle on Aguirre by submission at plus money.
"I'll be looking for like a a guer by submission sprinkle just cuz I really don't know what to expect from talit"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Nov 17, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Nick Aguirre

Aguirre is a slick submission specialist with crafty BJJ. Talbott is a striker who has struggled with grappling control in the past. Aguirre can get the fight to the ground via clinch or pulling guard and find a submission. The line is too wide; a small poke on Aguirre by submission at +1000 is a steal.

win by submission at +1000
"I'm going to take a very small poke on Nick aary especially his submission line which at plus 1,000 I think is a steal"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Nov 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)

Paul also does not make a clear pick. He discusses the line being too high for an unproven debutant and mentions that Aguirre has a chance via submission. He leans towards not betting the favorite but does not pick a side.

"I'm not going to pick the underdog but uh should tala be 10 to one I'd like to see him have a few fights in the UFC first"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Payton Talbott

The MMA Guru picks Payton Talbott to win by TKO, calling Nick Aguirre 'garbage' and criticizing the matchup as a gimme for Talbott. He praises Talbott's striking from the Contender Series and believes he will easily win.

TKO
"Payton Talbott's going to [expletive] whoop him up badly... I reckon he gets a TKO."
Expert Picks (10)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Payton Talbott

Angelo picks Payton Talbott, acknowledging Henry Cejudo's Olympic wrestling credentials but believing Cejudo is too old and past his prime. He notes that Talbott is much larger, athletic, and has improved his wrestling since the Hani Barcelos fight. Angelo expects Talbott to use his size and speed to overwhelm Cejudo, despite his personal admiration for Cejudo.

"Payton Talbot's the pick."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 26, 2025 (10 days before fight)
Payton Talbott

Big Brady picks Payton Talbott, noting Cejudo's retirement talk, lack of recent wins, and decline. He highlights Talbott's improvements in takedown defense and scrambling after the Barcelos fight. He expects Talbott to win by third-round knockout.

Talbott by third round knockout
"I'm going to take Payton Tabata to make a statement and get some of the hype he once lost and get that back and then some with the big performance here. Give me Payton Tabata to win by third round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Dec 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Payton Talbott

Cody is hesitant but picks Talbott, noting that Cejudo's recent fights show he doesn't wrestle enough. He points out that Cejudo's takedown attempts have declined and he relies on striking, where Talbott has a reach advantage. He mentions that Talbott's wrestling looked improved against Felipe Lima. He is tempted by Cejudo's dog odds but doesn't trust him to wrestle.

"If I could trust Henry Cejudo to come out here and make this a wrestling match, I'd be all about Henry Cejudo at like plus 215. The problem is like he doesn't really want to do that anymore."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Payton Talbott

Connor picks Talbott, arguing that Cejudo doesn't want to wrestle and will likely revert to his preferred striking. He notes that Talbott has shown improvement in defensive wrestling since the Barcelos fight, and his pressure-volume style is effective. Connor believes Cejudo can hit takedowns but doubts his ability to stick with a wrestling-heavy game plan, especially at 38. He sees Talbott as a younger, more dynamic striker who understands pace and pressure.

Odds: Cejudo opened +210, now +215; Talbott opened -250, now -255.
"I'm not picking him to win. I mean, I expect him to try, but it's just not what he wants. Even if he tries, can you do it sustainably?"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 27, 2025 (9 days before fight)
Payton Talbott

Daniel picks Talbott, citing Cejudo's age (38), size disadvantage (5'4 vs 5'10), and decline since retirement. He expects Cejudo to have early success but fade, while Talbott's power and athleticism will take over. He notes Talbott's learning from his first loss and improved confidence.

"I'm going to go Payton Talba to come out here and overcome some stuff early and then Cejudo is going to start to gas out and I think Pton Talba's going to put a beating on Triple C."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 29, 2025 (7 days before fight)
Payton Talbott

Lucrative James believes Henry Cejudo is not fully committed to MMA, citing his content creation and retirement talk. He thinks Talbott's relentless pressure and body work will wear down Cejudo, especially in rounds 2 and 3. He notes Talbott's presence and striking flow are exceptional and predicts a round 3 stoppage or decision win.

"Payton Talba is going to go out there and break Henry Ceudo in my opinion."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Payton Talbott

The host expects the fight to be more competitive than the -255 odds suggest but still picks Talbott to land more effective damage and do enough defensive grappling to keep Cejudo from grinding. He predicts a decision win for Talbott.

win by decision; odds comment: minus 255 on Talbet
"I'm expecting this fight to be much more competitive than the minus 255 on Talbet indicates... Talba comes out on top by decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Payton Talbott

Paul picks Talbott, echoing Cody's concerns about Cejudo's wrestling. He notes that Cejudo's best wins came against older or smaller opponents and that he hasn't knocked anyone out since 2020. He believes Talbott's length and accuracy will cause problems for Cejudo, who is reluctant to shoot takedowns. He thinks Talbott wins by decision or TKO.

"I think Payton Taba wins this fight as well. Yeah, wrestling with uh with Frank Oceans, one of the best bases for MMA, I've heard."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Henry Cejudo

The Guru picks Henry Cejudo as a +230 underdog over Payton Talbott. He believes Talbott is being pushed too fast and Cejudo's experience and chin will be too much. The Guru predicts a 29-28 decision win for Cejudo.

plus 230 underdog
"I'm going with Sudo over Payton Tabet by 2928 decision."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Payton Talbott

Zane agrees with Connor, noting that Cejudo's career shows a reluctance to wrestle unless forced. He points out that Talbott's game is built on pressure and volume, similar to Colby Covington's approach, but with actual striking talent. Zane believes Talbott will come in improved after the Lima fight, where he showed better defensive wrestling. He thinks Cejudo's takedowns will be less effective as the fight goes on, and Talbott's pace will overwhelm him.

Same odds commentary as Connor.
"Yes, we're both picking Talbott."