vs
-556 +540
UFC Freedom 250 · Jun 14, 2026 · Lightweight · Scheduled
UFC Freedom 250 Next Fight
Age 29
Height 5' 7"
Reach 69.0"
Weight 145 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 37
Height 5' 11"
Reach 70.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Ilia Topuria
4.81 SLpM
48.0% Str. Acc.
3.83 SApM
64.0% Str. Def.
1.96 TD Avg
61.0% TD Acc.
93.0% TD Def.
1.1 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Justin Gaethje
6.48 SLpM
58.0% Str. Acc.
7.05 SApM
51.0% Str. Def.
0.33 TD Avg
40.0% TD Acc.
74.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Ilia Topuria
Moneyline
Betfair Exchange -556
KO/TKO
BetRivers -165
Submission
FanDuel +460
Decision
FanDuel +1200
Justin Gaethje
Moneyline
BetRivers +540
KO/TKO
FanDuel +650
Submission
FanDuel +4000
Decision
BetRivers +2000
Ilia Topuria - Fight History
SCHED vs Justin Gaethje
UFC Freedom 250 · Jun 14, 2026
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked Jun 3, 2026 (11 days before fight)
Ilia Topuria

AJ believes Topuria's hands are too precise and his boxing is too elite for Gaethje. He mentions that Gaethje's calf kicks and forward pressure give him a chance, but ultimately Topuria's striking is different and he expects Topuria to get the win.

"I think Tapori is a problem... I think Tapora's striking is different."
KO R1 2:27 · UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · Jun 28, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ilia Topuria 1 21 of 29 72% 24 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:01
Charles Oliveira 0 9 of 16 56% 10 of 18 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:21
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ilia Topuria 1 21 of 29 72% 24 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:01
Charles Oliveira 0 9 of 16 56% 10 of 18 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:21
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ilia Topuria 21 of 29 72% 17 of 23 3 of 3 1 of 3 18 of 24 0 of 0 3 of 5
Charles Oliveira 9 of 16 56% 3 of 8 2 of 4 4 of 4 8 of 14 1 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ilia Topuria 21 of 29 72% 17 of 23 3 of 3 1 of 3 18 of 24 0 of 0 3 of 5
Charles Oliveira 9 of 16 56% 3 of 8 2 of 4 4 of 4 8 of 14 1 of 2 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
UFC Lightweight Title Fight: Ilia Topuria vs. Charles Oliveira
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Topuria (-440), Oliveira (+340)

Round 1
One way or another, lightweight history will be made tonight. Either Topuria (16-0, 8-0 UFC) will become the first undefeated two-division champ in UFC history, or Oliveira (35-10, 1 NC; 23-10, 1 NC UFC) will serve as the first two-time 155-pound king. The finish rates of the two are high, excitement is higher and the
fighter
that was
electrocuted in Thailand
on Sunday at a Weed Boxing show may be the highest. Locked and loaded, referee Marc Goddard has got this. Before the mayhem begins, the 155ers vying for the vacant throne share a respectful fist bump. It’s on with the show.
Oliveira is quick to deliver a hard leg kick, and they get right to swinging. Both men tag one another immediately, with the former lightweight champ hitting harder but suffering a cut on the eye. Oliveira rushes forward to grab hold of Topuria, searching for a body lock takedown. Oliveira tries to throw Topuria to the mat, but he ends up falling to his back. Blood flows from the eyebrow of “Do Bronxs,” who latches onto a leglock that drags Topuria to the floor. Topuria scrambles wildly to get his leg out, turning towards the Brazilian and exploding his way up. He slaps Oliveira with a few low kicks to either side, until Goddard tells Oliveira to stand. Topuria lets loose with swinging fists, and Oliveira clinches and throws him to the wall. Oliveira dips and delivers an uppercut on the chin, and Topuria goes to the body. Topuria’s power is maximum, as he unleashes a thunderous right hook and a lightning bolt left that sends Oliveira collapsing to the floor, completely unconscious. Before Goddard can get between them, Topuria hammers the nail with a couple brutal, unnecessary hammerfists. The snoozing Oliveira’s eyes stare into the void, and the void stares back into him until he regains consciousness.
While Oliveira has been stopped with strikes before, including taking a one-hitter quitter from Cub Swanson in 2012, no one has done that to the Brazilian at 155 pounds. The vacancy of the lightweight belt is now filled, and it is in the arms of “El Matador.” Topuria called his shot perfectly, claiming before the match that he would knock out Oliveira in the first round. He did just that, and the next question is who will be next for him. Three awaiting contenders are shown in the crowd: Justin Gaethje, Paddy Pimblett and Arman Tsarukyan. Topuria calls out Pimblett specifically, and declares, “If you think you are ready, come on you blonde b--ch.” Pimblett jumps out of the crowd to hurry into the cage, and politely gives Topuria credit for the hellacious knockout while patting him on the shoulder. “Paddy the Baddy” then announces that he will finish Topuria, and that “El Matador” could not knock him out. Topuria shoves Pimblett as dollar signs flash in the eyes of UFC executives, with the company apparently matching the fight right now. If that fight does materialize, it will be a big one, and we will be here for it. We hope you are too.

The Official Result
Ilia Topuria def. Charles Oliveira R1 2:27 via KO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Ilia Topuria

Angelo picks Ilia Topuria because he believes Topuria's boxing, footwork, and wrestling are superior to Charles Oliveira's. He notes that Oliveira has been rocked in almost every fight, while Topuria has only been dropped once and recovered to win. He acknowledges that Oliveira is a great grappler but thinks Topuria's wrestling is better and his hands are cleaner. He is slightly concerned about Topuria's size at lightweight but thinks he will get the job done.

"The pick is going to be Ilia. I think he's just better."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2025 (7 days before fight)
Ilia Topuria

Big Brady believes this is a bad matchup for Oliveira, citing Topuria's excellent takedown defense and power. He notes Oliveira has been dropped in recent fights and Topuria hits harder than anyone Oliveira has faced. Brady thinks the fight will stay standing, where Topuria will land big shots and potentially finish early. He also mentions that referee Mark Goddard is quick to stop fights, which favors Topuria. He predicts a first-round knockout.

Topuria wins by first round knockout
"I'm going to say Tap to wins this fight. I think it's first round knockout."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jun 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Ilia Topuria

Connor sees this as a bad stylistic matchup for Oliveira. He notes that Oliveira's losses come against fighters who aren't afraid to grapple with him and who pressure him, both of which describe Topuria. He also highlights Topuria's body punching and pressure fighting as key advantages, and believes Topuria's wrestling defense is sufficient to neutralize Oliveira's grappling. He expects Topuria to finish Oliveira relatively quickly, either by knockout or by dominating on the ground.

"I am forced to conclude whatever angle I look at this from that it feels like a bad matchup for Charles Oliveira, kind of fundamentally."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Ilia Topuria

The host believes Topuria can walk Oliveira down and land big power shots, setting up a knockout. He also notes Topuria might look to take the fight to the ground to submit the UFC submission leader, but ultimately expects a knockout victory.

knockout, possible submission attempt
"I think he can really walk Charles Olivera down, land his big power shots and I think it ultimately sets up that knockout."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Ilia Topuria

The host picks Ilia Topuria by TKO, citing his crisp boxing, power, and ability to hurt Oliveira. He notes that Oliveira gets hurt by everyone and that Topuria's compact style will be difficult for Oliveira to grapple with. He predicts multiple knockdowns leading to a finish late in the first round.

TKO
"Ilia Puria is who I'm going to take to win this fight. I am terrified that he will look like an absolute dwarf out there..."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Ilia Topuria

Zane agrees that Topuria is a bad matchup for Oliveira. He points out that Oliveira's game relies on fear and aggression, and if an opponent doesn't respect his grappling, Oliveira can be beaten. He notes that Topuria is a pressure fighter who is comfortable in the pocket and has good takedown defense. Zane also mentions that Oliveira looked slower and more cautious in his last fight against Chandler, which is a worrying sign. He expects Topuria to win, possibly by knockout or by outgrappling Oliveira.

"I think so too. Um, and you know, maybe there is some surprise in there. Like Olivera at this point is a, is a very big lightweight. Sure. And Ilia Toporia, as you noted, is not even a particularly big …"
WIN vs Max Holloway
KO (punches) R3 1:34 · UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · Oct 26, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ilia Topuria 1 75 of 144 52% 78 of 147 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:45
Max Holloway 0 79 of 204 38% 84 of 209 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ilia Topuria 0 22 of 47 46% 24 of 49 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:41
Max Holloway 0 30 of 75 40% 35 of 80 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Ilia Topuria 0 32 of 62 51% 32 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Max Holloway 0 35 of 102 34% 35 of 102 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Ilia Topuria 1 21 of 35 60% 22 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Max Holloway 0 14 of 27 51% 14 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ilia Topuria 75 of 144 52% 49 of 114 11 of 14 15 of 16 71 of 140 0 of 0 4 of 4
Max Holloway 79 of 204 38% 47 of 151 13 of 30 19 of 23 79 of 204 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ilia Topuria 22 of 47 46% 13 of 38 3 of 3 6 of 6 22 of 47 0 of 0 0 of 0
Max Holloway 30 of 75 40% 17 of 56 7 of 12 6 of 7 30 of 75 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Ilia Topuria 32 of 62 51% 20 of 47 5 of 7 7 of 8 32 of 62 0 of 0 0 of 0
Max Holloway 35 of 102 34% 23 of 79 3 of 13 9 of 10 35 of 102 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Ilia Topuria 21 of 35 60% 16 of 29 3 of 4 2 of 2 17 of 31 0 of 0 4 of 4
Max Holloway 14 of 27 51% 7 of 16 3 of 5 4 of 6 14 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
UFC Featherweight Title Fight: Ilia Topuria vs. Max Holloway
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Topuria (-230), Holloway (+190)

Round 1
One of the best fights the UFC could possibly make serves as the main attraction, and it is one for all the marbles. Topuria (15-0, 7-0 UFC) puts his featherweight strap and undefeated record on the line against former champ Holloway (26-7, 22-7 UFC), and excitement is at a fever pitch. No more introductions are needed. Referee Marc Goddard brings the gladiators to the center of the Octagon to touch gloves, and they do just that. It’s on with the show. Topuria stands in the middle of the cage and points to the ground, and Holloway motions a matador gesture to counter him. They do not brawl it out immediately. Topuria advances calmly instead, measuring the former champ and blocking a head kick and a few jabs. Topuria goes over the top with a right hand that misses the mark, and a second nearly lands as well. Holloway keeps active with jabs and body kicks, and he swipes out with a right hook that misses the mark. Topuria puts everything he has into a huge right hand, and Holloway is wise to it and pecks at him with sharp jabs. Topuria shoots in and lifts “Blessed” off his feet, driving him to the canvas with a solid double. Holloway wall-walks, and Topuria forced a mat return. Holloway stands once more and breaks away, and he checks a low kick and advances with a right hand. Topuria gives him a right to think about, but Holloway does not let him off the hook and pegs him with a pair of punches. Topuria chops at the front leg a few times, and he tags Holloway with a right hand. Holloway skirts out of the way before absorbing more than a few, and Topuria works his front leg with another hard kick. Holloway snaps out a jab, marking up Topuria’s face and coming up short with a front kick. Topuria reaches his target with a jab, and Holloway prods out with low kicks. Topuria tries to swing it out, and Holloway is composed enough to evade the blows and get off a long right hand on the way out. Holloway splits the guard with a front kick and has his guard high to defend the counters, and his head kick bounces off the guard. Holloway peppers his opponent with a low kick and jabs, and he follows a jab with a two. Topuria shakes it off and walks into a jab that makes him reset, and he dodges a spinning back kick in time. Topuria throws hammers, and he knocks an off-balance Holloway down to the mat in what was more of a slip or a trip than a clean strike, and the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Holloway
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Holloway
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Holloway

Round 2
The featherweights clap hands to get started again, and Holloway fights immediately behind his jab. Topuria comes up short with a low kick and a right hand, and he gets caught on the way in with a jab. Holloway tags the champ with a clean right, and he trades low kicks with his opponent. Holloway goes to the head and body with jabs, and he takes one on the nose to back him away. Topuria wings power punches that hit air, but his calf kick finds its mark. Topuria clubs Holloway on the side of the head with winging punches, and he chains a calf kick after it. Topuria gets in a right hand and has a leg kick checked, and Holloway snaps his head back with a jab. Holloway steps in with a knee behind a few jabs, and he stomps at the front knee of his adversary. Topuria drills Holloway in the chin with a left hand, and he goes after the front leg with a kick again. Topuria’s punches connect cleanly on the jaw of the Hawaiian, who shows him what time it is with a left hook and a head kick on the other side. Topuria loads up on power strikes, and Holloway’s jabs are disrupting him just enough so that he does not get them full blast. Holloway dips a huge hook and jabs away, and he reaches out with a body shot. Topuria answers in kind, and he rolls with a right hook. Holloway kicks the side as he fires off jabs, and he checks a kick and kicks his man back. Holloway knees the side as Topuria barrels down on him, and he nails the champ with a short left and a power right. Topuria responds with a right hand, and he is met with multiple low kicks in response. Chants for both fighters are deafening in the building, and Holloway chains a number of punches together to decent effect. Topuria kicks the front leg and gets met with a body kick, and he eats a right hand when throwing one. Holloway scores a spinning back kick to the body, and Topuria shrugs at him before the round comes to a close.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Holloway
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Topuria
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Topuria

Round 3
It’s back to more face-punching as they resume again, and Holloway uses his punches to set up two low kicks and a third up high. Topuria walks through a leg kick to land a right on the chin, and Holloway scores a left hand as Topuria points at him. Topuria deploys a powerful leg kick, and a second one is met with long punches from the former champ. Holloway stomps at his foe’s front leg a few times, and Topuria does not lie it. Topuria winds up with a huge right hand, knocking the former champ back and stunning him. Holloway shells up and defends himself from an onslaught, and he is still rocked even as he counters and circles away. Topuria is on top of him ready to finish the job, further backing Holloway up to the wall and letting loose with a bombardment of punches. A ferocious left hand in the midst of a fierce flurry knocks Holloway down to the ground, and Topuria has achieved something no featherweight has ever accomplished. Topuria lowers himself down to blast Holloway with a number of hammerfists, and Holloway’s lights go out and get switched back on from the stream of blows. Goddard sees that Holloway has had enough and waves the fight off, and Topuria wanders away and motions sipping at tea. Incredible! Topuria has done the impossible, knocking out a fighter who had never before been stopped with strikes. Topuria is still undefeated, having notched back-to-back finishes that will stack up among the greatest ever performed in the division. Topuria leaps out of the cage to embrace anyone he can find, including UFC chief exec Hunter Campbell and television host Steve Harvey. As he returns to the cage, he receives a rose for his effort. Topuria welcomes all challengers, including former champion Alexander Volkanovski, who takes the cage to greet him. Topuria says he does not want to fight anyone right now, and instead wants to hug Volkanovski. He does just that. Full of love, Topuria wants to celebrate this victory with his family and team. It remains to be seen who is next for the champion, who cements himself as a star and one of the greats in his weight class because of this spectacular triumph. No matter who is next for "El Matador," we will be here for it. We hope you are too.

The Official Result
Ilia Topuria def. Max Holloway R3 1:34 via KO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 20, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Ilia Topuria

Angelo picks Ilia Topuria as the final leg of his villain parlay with a full unit bet, but admits he would be happy to lose the bet if Max wins. He praises Topuria's speed, power, and wrestling entries, and believes he is the next generation of fighter. He thinks Topuria will be too fast and diverse for Max, but acknowledges Max's legendary striking and durability.

Final leg of villain parlay with a full unit bet; hopes it loses.
"Ilia has to be the pick here I think he's just going to be too fast too diverse for Max but Max wins this and I lose that parlay I you the biggest smile on my face for a losing …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Max Holloway

Big Brady thinks this is a very close fight. He believes Topuria will have early success but that Holloway's durability, cardio, and pace will take over in the later rounds. He notes that Holloway has never been knocked out and has absorbed the most significant strikes in UFC history, so he cannot pick anyone to knock him out. He predicts a split decision win for Holloway.

"I'm going to take Max here I'm going to take Max to win this fight by a very close Split Decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Max Holloway

Cody picks Max Holloway as a plus 200 underdog, citing Holloway's unparalleled volume and pace, which he believes will overwhelm Topuria in the later rounds. He notes that Topuria has been outlanded in most of his fights before landing a knockout, and that Holloway has never been knocked out. Cody also mentions that Topuria's cardio slowed in the fifth round against Josh Emmett, and that Holloway's takedown defense is elite. He sprinkles on Holloway by KO in rounds 4 and 5 at long odds.

Holloway by KO round 4 (+3300), Holloway by KO round 5 (+3900)
"I did sprinkle on the Max Holloway round 5 KO plus 3900 and Max Round 4 KO plus 3,300"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 24, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Ilia Topuria

Connor picks Topuria, citing his relentless pressure and power advantage. He notes that Max Holloway, while still capable of greatness, has shown signs of age and accumulated damage, and his recent win over Gaethje was more a reflection of Gaethje's poor performance. Connor believes Topuria's pressure and power will be too much for Holloway, especially if Holloway tries to fight on the back foot.

Topuria opened at -235, currently -258; Holloway +202 to +221
"We are both picking Ilya Toporia."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ilia Topuria

Daniel Vreeland picks Ilia Topuria to win, citing Topuria's power edge, durability, and grappling upside. He notes that Max Holloway has taken a lot of damage over his career and that Topuria's upward trajectory and maturity in the octagon give him the advantage. Vreeland also mentions that Topuria's boxing defense is superior and that he has the ability to finish Holloway, possibly becoming the first to knock him out. He is not concerned about Holloway's late-round cardio narrative, pointing to Topuria's performance against Josh Emmett in round five.

"I'm picking toor to win"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ilia Topuria

Lucrative James picks Ilia Topuria to win, citing Topuria's massive power advantage and grappling upside. He notes that Topuria can close distance, pressure Holloway against the cage, and land heavy shots, and also has submission threats. He acknowledges Holloway's elite chin and takedown defense but believes Topuria's speed and clinical punching will be too much. He predicts a KO or decision win for Topuria.

"I have to pick Ilia Toria to get the job done this weekend... I'm picking a toore KO or decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Max Holloway

Holloway can take Topuria's best shot and then come back with a volume-heavy approach that Topuria cannot keep up with. Topuria had great cardio against Josh Emmett but will not have that luxury against Holloway, who gets stronger in deep waters. Holloway will turn up the pressure in championship rounds and get a TKO finish in the fourth or fifth round.

Holloway wins by TKO in rounds 4-5
"look for a hallay to continue to turn up the volume and pressure in the championship rounds which could lead to a brage of strikes to get a TKO finish in the fourth or fifth round"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Max Holloway

Paul also picks Max Holloway, emphasizing that the fight is closer to 50-50 than the odds suggest. He argues that Topuria's power is real but he gets outlanded in most fights before landing a kill shot, and that Holloway's durability and volume will be key. Paul points out that Topuria's wins over Volk and Emmett came against opponents with durability issues, and that Holloway's experience and pace will expose Topuria. He also mentions that Topuria's reluctance to fight Holloway initially suggests doubt.

"I think it's probably in my mind closer to a 50-50 type fight"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Ilia Topuria

The Guru picks Ilia Topuria to win by decision, citing Topuria's superior boxing and power as the prototype to beat Max Holloway. He notes that Holloway struggles against shorter opponents, as seen in the Volk trilogy, and that Topuria's low kicks and ability to cut Holloway will be key. He also mentions Holloway's recent weight cut from lightweight and scar tissue as disadvantages. The Guru predicts Topuria will hurt Holloway early, open a cut, and survive a late rally to win a damage-based decision.

"I'm going with Ilia Topuria to win this fight by decision and I think Holloway is going to have moments later on and people are going to complain."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 24, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Ilia Topuria

Zane picks Topuria, agreeing with Connor that Topuria's pressure and power are key. He notes that Holloway's recent performances have been less assertive and that Topuria's ability to counter the jab and walk opponents down will be problematic for Holloway. Zane also mentions that Holloway's best chance is to pressure Topuria, but he's not sure Holloway will do that.

Topuria opened at -235, currently -258; Holloway +202 to +221
"We are both picking Ilya Toporia."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 26, 2024 (fight day)
Ilia Topuria

Zane picked Topuria going into the fight, citing his power and ability to press and stay on the front foot, while Holloway's willingness to work the back foot and counter would be too big a hill to climb. He noted that Holloway's height, length, and diversity of skills gave Topuria trouble early, but Topuria's huge power and deadly pocket countering were the equalizer. Zane emphasized that Holloway has never been a big power puncher and could not match Topuria's power, and that Holloway's style of taking one to give three eventually caught up to him.

"I picked Ilya Toporia going in figured his power and his ability to press and stay on the front foot and Holloway's willingness to work the back foot and counter would just be too big a hill for Holloway to …"
KO (punch) R2 3:32 · UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · Feb 17, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ilia Topuria 0 47 of 107 43% 47 of 107 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alexander Volkanovski 1 35 of 77 45% 36 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ilia Topuria 0 26 of 52 50% 26 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alexander Volkanovski 0 15 of 38 39% 16 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Ilia Topuria 0 21 of 55 38% 21 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alexander Volkanovski 1 20 of 39 51% 20 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ilia Topuria 47 of 107 43% 21 of 68 11 of 22 15 of 17 44 of 102 3 of 5 0 of 0
Alexander Volkanovski 35 of 77 45% 17 of 53 12 of 16 6 of 8 28 of 70 4 of 4 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ilia Topuria 26 of 52 50% 8 of 29 7 of 12 11 of 11 24 of 49 2 of 3 0 of 0
Alexander Volkanovski 15 of 38 39% 4 of 25 7 of 8 4 of 5 13 of 36 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Ilia Topuria 21 of 55 38% 13 of 39 4 of 10 4 of 6 20 of 53 1 of 2 0 of 0
Alexander Volkanovski 20 of 39 51% 13 of 28 5 of 8 2 of 3 15 of 34 2 of 2 3 of 3
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
UFC Featherweight Title Fight: Alexander Volkanovski vs. Ilia Topuria
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Volkanovski (-118), Topuria (-102)

Round 1
We have reached the marquee matchup of the evening, and it is one that fight fans have been waiting patiently to watch for several months. Unable to secure a second title, Volkanovski (26-3, 13-2 UFC) will have to make do with attempting the sixth defense of his featherweight throne. Much has been said about his age, having recently turned 35, and he steered into it on fight week by donning an “Old Man Volk” persona. Eight years the junior of the champ, full of vinegar and that other thing, fired up unbeaten Topuria (14-0, 6-0 UFC) wants that gold belt, and to claim it he will have to become the first fighter to defeat Volkanovski at 145 pounds. No matter how this fight plays out, referee Jason Herzog will take care of the proceedings. When he brings the fighters together, they opt to touch gloves first. Topuria moves towards the center of the cage, and he blocks a quick head kick. As Topuria advances, Volkanovski snipes him with kicks high and low. Volkanovski paws out with a left and a body kick, and Topuria walks through them and retaliates with a sharp right hand over the top. Volkanovski times a kick to the body and continues throwing them to the lead leg and midsection, even flicking one up high as he keeps Topuria from reaching him. Volkanovski rips the body with another kick, and he pokes out a jab. Topuria winds up with a hard leg kick, spinning the champ all the way around, and Volkanovski recovers with a spinning back fist just in case Topuria was advancing. Topuria kicks the calf low with bad intentions, and he backs the champ off with an overhand right that glances off his guard. Topuria gets off another low kick, and he forces Volkanovski to change stances just a few in. Volkanovski dances out of the way of a short combo of fists, and he whips a kick up high to keep Topuria honest. Volkanovski delivers a calf kick back, and he follows suit with a body kick. Volkanovski paws out a left as Topuria charges, but Topuria manages to break through and sting Volkanovski with a right hand. Volkanovski bounces off the fence and shakes it off, where he peppers kicks to stave off the offense from the challenger. Volkanovski connects with a body kick and slips a huge punch, and he drives two heavy low kicks home to stumble Topuria. Volkanovski tags Topuria on the way in with a short left hand, and Topuria motions to him that his punches do not faze him. Volkanovski signals that he did land cleanly, and he shoots for a takedown only to break and knee the Georgian three times in rapid succession. The close round ends with a trickle of blood leaking from the bridge of Topuria’s nose.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Topuria
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Topuria
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Topuria

Round 2
The featherweights touch ‘em up in the middle of the cage, and Volkanovski is fleet of foot, darting in and out with jabs and kicks to any target he can find. Topuria crashes the pocket with two hooks, and Volkanovski rolls with them and shifts to the side. Topuria chases with an overhand right, and Volkanovski measures with jabs. Topuria lands cleanly with a right and then a left, and Volkanovski nods at him and clinches up only to knee the challenger on the break. Volkanovski connects with a right hand and a low kick as Topuria resets, and Volkanovski reaches him on the way back with a body kick. Topuria lunges to land a single punch, and the jabs from Volkanovski have opened the slight cut on Topuria’s nose again. Topuria knocks Volkanovski back with a right hand, and he digs a kick to the calf as Volkanovski changes stances. They snap out jabs at the same time, with the champion reaching more cleanly and frequently when they trade them. Volkanovski peppers the lead leg with kicks, and he drives a right hand into Topuria’s forehead to give him a moment of pause. Topuria lands a low kick, and Volkanovski gives him back one to the calf and one to the body. Volkanovski springs forward with jabs that have marked the face up of the challenger, and he does not slow in his approach of kicking to any target he can find. Frustrated with taking potshots from afar, “El Matador” charges like a bull. Volkanovski slips the oncoming fire, rebounding off the cage wall, but Topuria does not slow. Topuria unleashes a lightning bolt of a right hand that completely short circuits the champion. All the way out, Volkanovski collapses with his back to the fence, and Topuria dings him on the way down with a speedy left to follow. Herzog sprints between them to save Volkanovski from any further punishment, as the champion is no longer conscious—and no longer the champion. Topuria hammers any final nail with a few right hands until Herzog reaches him to pull him off of the downed Aussie. Incredible! Spain and Georgia now have a UFC champion, and his name is Ilia Topuria. The new champ is now an undefeated 15-0 with 13 finishes, with none bigger than this stunning moment. Topuria springs the only betting upset of the evening, starching one of the greatest to ever do it with one monumental punch. Welcome to the Topuria era.

The Official Result
Ilia Topuria def. Alexander Volkanovski R2 3:32 via KO (Punch)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 11, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

Angelo picks Alexander Volkanovski, citing his dominance at featherweight and well-rounded skills. He acknowledges Topuria's power and wrestling but notes Topuria hasn't faced anyone as skilled as Volkanovski. He is concerned about Volkanovski's recent knockout loss but believes he has defied age-related stats before. He will not bet on this fight.

"I got to go vul here he hasn't shown me anything at this weight class to make me think he won't win this fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

Big Brady picks Alexander Volkanovski to win by decision. He argues that Topuria hasn't proven himself against top competition, with his best wins being Bryce Mitchell and an aging Josh Emmett. He believes Volkanovski is on another level, having beaten Max Holloway three times and Jose Aldo. He acknowledges the narratives about Volkanovski's age and drinking but thinks the line is too close, calling a Topuria win a major upset.

"give me Alexander volkanovski to win this fight and Win It by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

Cody agrees with Paul, emphasizing Volkanovski's status as the featherweight GOAT and his near-win over Islam Makhachev. He questions Topuria's competition level (Jay Herbert, Bryce Mitchell, Josh Emmett) compared to Volkanovski's resume. He notes Topuria's potential cardio issues in the fifth round, as he took off the fifth against Emmett. He favors the champ's pressure and volume at even money.

"I got to go with the devil I know then the devil I don't and toor's got some things he needs to prove still to this point whereas volkanovski I'm comfortable with where he's at and when he brings to …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Ilia Topuria

Daniel Vreeland picks Ilia Topuria to win, citing a changing of the guard. He emphasizes Topuria's youth, less damage taken, and well-rounded skills including submission grappling and striking. He notes Volkanovski's recent knockout loss, weight cut issues, and age as concerns, but says his pick was made before those factors. He believes Topuria can match Volkanovski's output and has the heart to survive adversity, as shown in his comeback from head kick knockdowns.

"I've bet on Toria in every single one of his UFC fights... it should be no surprise that I'm picking him here."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

Volkanovski is the most complete featherweight possibly ever. He will execute a master game plan, stifle Topuria's power punching, and grind on the mat. Topuria is a high-level prospect but this is a huge step up. Expects Volkanovski to hand out a veteran lesson and win by decision.

"I think volkanovski is going to show him a thing or two handing out a veteran lesson and defending the title by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

Paul believes the line is skewed by Volkanovski's short-notice loss to Makhachev. He thinks Volkanovski can secure takedowns and hang out in guard, avoiding Topuria's power. He cites Volkanovski's volume, pace, and experience against top competition like Brian Ortega. He feels the line should be closer to -175, so even money is a trap in his favor.

"I'm going with VA volkanovski in the main event here because I feel like this line is getting skewed by what happened with volkanovski taking the rematch against makev over in the Middle East on like 10 days notice..."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Ilia Topuria

The MMA Guru picks Ilia Topuria, citing his power, grappling, and momentum. He notes Volkanovski's recent KO loss to Makhachev, his drinking, and the weight cut. He believes Topuria's boxing and power will be key, and that Volkanovski's chin may be suspect. He predicts a KO in round two, with Volkanovski complaining about an early stoppage.

"I'm going with Ilia Topuria... KO round two, Vault complains about an early stoppage."
WIN vs Josh Emmett
Decision (unanimous) (50–44, 50–42, 49–45) R5 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Emmett vs. Topuria · Jun 24, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ilia Topuria 0 87 of 305 28% 89 of 309 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Josh Emmett 1 152 of 344 44% 171 of 365 3 of 3 100% 0 0 3:35
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ilia Topuria 0 14 of 68 20% 14 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Josh Emmett 0 21 of 56 37% 21 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Ilia Topuria 0 19 of 68 27% 19 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Josh Emmett 0 30 of 75 40% 30 of 75 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
3 Ilia Topuria 0 31 of 81 38% 31 of 81 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Josh Emmett 0 37 of 91 40% 37 of 91 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Ilia Topuria 0 13 of 52 25% 15 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Josh Emmett 1 56 of 100 56% 62 of 107 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:58
5 Ilia Topuria 0 10 of 36 27% 10 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Josh Emmett 0 8 of 22 36% 21 of 36 3 of 3 100% 0 0 2:33
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ilia Topuria 87 of 305 28% 43 of 232 26 of 53 18 of 20 87 of 305 0 of 0 0 of 0
Josh Emmett 152 of 344 44% 124 of 302 9 of 16 19 of 26 114 of 289 2 of 2 36 of 53
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ilia Topuria 14 of 68 20% 8 of 58 4 of 8 2 of 2 14 of 68 0 of 0 0 of 0
Josh Emmett 21 of 56 37% 14 of 47 4 of 5 3 of 4 21 of 56 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Ilia Topuria 19 of 68 27% 8 of 47 6 of 15 5 of 6 19 of 68 0 of 0 0 of 0
Josh Emmett 30 of 75 40% 25 of 66 0 of 0 5 of 9 25 of 68 0 of 0 5 of 7
3 Ilia Topuria 31 of 81 38% 16 of 60 7 of 12 8 of 9 31 of 81 0 of 0 0 of 0
Josh Emmett 37 of 91 40% 30 of 80 3 of 5 4 of 6 37 of 91 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Ilia Topuria 13 of 52 25% 6 of 39 6 of 12 1 of 1 13 of 52 0 of 0 0 of 0
Josh Emmett 56 of 100 56% 50 of 90 2 of 6 4 of 4 26 of 55 2 of 2 28 of 43
5 Ilia Topuria 10 of 36 27% 5 of 28 3 of 6 2 of 2 10 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
Josh Emmett 8 of 22 36% 5 of 19 0 of 0 3 of 3 5 of 19 0 of 0 3 of 3
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Josh Emmett vs. Ilia Topuria
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Topuria (-320), Emmett (+265)

Round 1
We have reached the main event after a fairly lengthy midday event. It should be a treat that presents a great deal of excitement, giving the Jacksonville fans one last brawl. Coming off an unsuccessful shot at the interim strap, Emmett (18-3, 9-3 UFC) wants to show at 38 he is not done yet. On the other side of the equation, 12 years Emmett’s junior, Topuria (13-0, 5-0 UFC) is undefeated and fast on the rise with violence in spades. Chins will almost certainly be tested before it is all said and done, and referee Marc Goddard receives the honor of officiating this hopefully thrilling headliner. There is nothing but respect between the two, as they tap their gloves together before the hostilities commence. Emmett blitzes forward right out of the gate, making the Georgian retreat early as Emmett bears down on him. Topuria is no worse for wear, and Emmett targets the body and head with surges of punches. Emmett circles around his relatively stationary adversary, and he stumbles as he drops low. Emmett gets up and goes back to potshotting Topuria with power range punches. Topuria sits down on a right hand counter, giving Emmett a little pause to advance recklessly. The two start trading furiously from up close, and Topuria backs off and targets the body. Emmett takes a solid right hand on the jaw, and he keeps moving and swaying. Topuria reaches him with an uppercut to the midsection, and he leans back from a swatting combo coming back at him. They trade left hooks, and Topuria flicks out several jabs to mark up Emmett’s face. Emmett throws so hard he nearly falls over, putting everything he has into his punches. Topuria’s guard is able to protect him from the worst of the blows, and he sees the wide looping right hands from afar. Topuria lands a low kick and keeps active with a jab, and he absorbs a flush right hand on the cheek. Topuria drills a kick that makes Emmett turn around, and he intercepts an advancing Emmett with another calf kick and a jab. A cut on the corner of Emmett’s eye opens up, and Emmett ignores it and throws caution to the wins with a chopping kick and an overhand right. Topuria jabs his way into an exchange, and Emmett is right there to stand and bang. Emmett reaches out with a right hand, and he clips Topuria with a check left hook while Topuria is backing away. Topuria closes in and wings two punches, and the tense round comes to a close.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Topuria
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Topuria
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Topuria

Round 2
The second round opens with a glove touch, and the swelling around Emmett’s left eye has grown. Emmett strikes first with a leg kick, and he comes up just short with two looping hooks. Topuria jabs effectively to stifle Emmett’s best offense, and Emmett responds with multiple body shots. Topuria chops at the lead wheel and pokes out with a jab, which reminds Emmett that he can also jab as well. Emmett lunges with a few punches, and the low kick at the end of his strikes connects. Topuria pulls back on a few big strikes, and Emmett closes in and pops him with a left hook. Topuria does not let him off the hook, landing with his own blow. Emmett lumps up the calf with a kick, and he charges in with four punches. Topuria counters him cleanly with a single right hand to make Emmett think twice, and he settles down with a hard low kick. Topuria beats Emmett to the punch with a right hook, and his speed is giving Emmett fits thus far. Emmett checks a low kick and wings a right hand that glances off the side. Topuria is frequently moving when Emmett loads up on his big right hook, and this lets very few of them land flush. The jabs from Topuria have bloodied up Emmett’s nose as well, and it snaps out and is met with a left hook on the way in. Topuria chains a few punches together and backs off when Emmett bullrushes him. Emmett slips on the way in, and Topuria takes advantage of this by smashing him in the face with a right hand. Emmett gets his back against the ropes, and he swings with bad intentions and drops Topuria. The Spanish/Georgian fighter scampers back to his feet and is not overly concerned, and he returns to his tactic of jabs and low kicks. Emmett brushes his right hand over the hair, and he checks a kick on the way back. Topuria slides out of the way of a big shot from Emmett, and he cracks the Californian with a right hand. Emmett drops to his hands, and Topuria rushes down and starts smacking him upside the head. Topuria lets go when Emmett rears back with a right hand, and the second frame wraps.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Topuria
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Topuria
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Topuria

Round 3
The two reach the third round and begin trading, and Topuria slides back and kicks the lead calf of Emmett. Emmett staggers from the damage, and he gathers his thoughts and wings an overhand right. Topuria comes at him throwing two big shots, and Emmett goes high with a kick. Emmett slams his shin on the calf twice, and he jabs Topuria when Topuria closes the distance. Emmett chips with another kick and misses with an overhand right, and Topuria just comes up short with his own counter. As Emmett ducks down to throw him off, Topuria follows him. Emmett catches Topuria with a left hook, and Topuria snipes him with a left hook back and connects with a leg kick. The featherweights crash together with fierce fists, and Emmett tags Topuria with a few huge punches. Topuria gives it right back, and he slashes open a cut on the cheek while also advancing Emmett’s swelling. Emmett stings Topuria with a right hand on the temple, and they clack their shins together with simultaneous kicks. Emmett digs a left to the body, and he is intercepted with a short right hand. Topuria knocks his man back with a jab, and he eats a clean right hand without batting an eye. Topuria measures Emmett with accurate jabs and follow-up punches, while Emmett meets him in the middle and bangs. Emmett walks through a leg kick, and they proceed to swing for the fences. Topuria snaps his jab out brilliantly, and Emmett’s left eye is almost closed. Emmett uses his own jab to decent effect, but its volume is nowhere near the unbeaten fighter’s. Topuria strings a few punches together to bust Emmett’s face up badly, and the side of it is covered in red. Emmett ducks a few punches to counter, and he pops Topuria in the chops with a left hook. Emmett beats Topuria to the punch with a right hand, and he waves Topuria on to brawl with him. Emmett overswings with his punches, and he targets the body and lead calf as the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Emmett
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Topuria
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Emmett

Round 4
We have ourselves a fight as the two reach the championship rounds, and they clap hands to get started. Emmett wades into the fray, landing at the end of a few punches as Topuria’s movement has slowed to a small degree. Emmett blitzes, and Topuria hops out of the way to evade most of the strikes. Topuria sticks out a jab, and he pins a one-two on the chin when Emmett chops at his calf. Topuria flicks out a few more jabs, and Emmett goes over the top with a big right. Topuria continues to work his jab, and Emmett aims a punch to the chest and one to the ribs. Topuria nails his foe with a leg kick, and Emmett has to hop back for a second to get his bearings. Emmett reaches out with a right hook, but Topuria is able to lean back and zip out a few jabs and a one-two. Emmett looks for a left to the body, and he gets his calf kicked and he squats down after it lands hard. Emmett rushes with looping shots that Topuria is able to avoid without problems, and when that one fails, he blitzes a second time. The body shot from Emmett does score, and Topuria’s jab snaps Emmet’s head back. Topuria times a big right hand to counter with one of his own, and he spins away before Emmett can reach him. Two punches from Topuria knock Emmett off-balance, and he learns that he is in trouble before his body does. Emmett falls to the ground, and Topuria beats on him in an effort to stop the fight. Emmett’s toughness is off the charts, as he survives the barrage of unanswered punches and gets back to his feet. Emmett climbs up with the fence behind him and wings power punches, but Topuria is faster and more accurate. A vicious leg kick and second flurry from “El Matador” knocks Emmett of his feet again, and he jumps straight into mount and tries to finish the job with his fists. Topuria drops down punches and hammerfists, and Emmett turns to his stomach and manages to survive to the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Topuria
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Topuria
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Topuria

Round 5
Between rounds, Goddard calls in the doctor to check on the swelling and damage of Emmett’s face. Emmett is able to pass the vision tests, and he informs Goddard he is more than willing to keep fighting despite his disfigurement. The two featherweights touch ‘em up one final time to begin the last round, and Emmett is a man possessed. Emmett charges with everything he has, and he rocks Topuria with a huge right hand. Topuria bounces off the fencing several times, in a surprisingly bad way, and Emmett gives chase swinging bombs. Emmett checks a kick, and Topuria gets back to his rhythm of jabs and calf kicks. Emmett hops around to get some feeling back in his leg, and he kicks with his other one. Emmett walks through a jab to lob a left hook, and he is throwing haymakers that Topuria is barely dodging. Emmett whiffs on a huge left hand, and he kicks the calf while Topuria is jabbing him. Emmett strikes the body and fires off massive hooks, and Topuria sees them coming and blocks them. Emmett reaches Topuria with a shovel left hook, and Topuria keeps moving so that he does not present as a stationary target. Emmett goes to the body with a left and bring a right over the top, and he swings with a subsequent left that opens him up to a takedown attempt. Topuria lands in half guard from his successful double, and Emmett turns to his side and works to a knee. Emmett wipes at his badly swollen eye as Topuria holds on from behind, although he cannot explode back up to his feet. Topuria clings to Emmett as precious seconds tick off the clock, and he manages to hit a mat return. Emmett scrambles, and the two roll around until Topuria follows to get the back again. Emmett works his way up, thanks in part to a fence grab, and Topuria wrenches him right back down. Topuria takes the back and flattens Emmett out for a moment, but Emmett turns to his side once more as he uses all of his last remaining energy to get up. Topuria punches Emmett on the side of the head a few more times for good measure, and Emmett muscles his way to his feet right at the sound of the final bell. These two featherweights have gone the distance after five violent rounds, and the stock of the younger Topuria is going to climb significantly after this excellent showing. Topuria will advance himself to a clean 14-0 as a pro, with two decision wins on his ledger now. In victory, “El Matador” declares himself as “the next guy” for the featherweight belt, and he wants to take on Alexander Volkanovski to become the first one to beat him at this weight class. There is little time to savor this, as the UFC train will keep on rolling. The next show will be in the UFC Apex in a week, and we will be here for it. We hope you are too.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Topuria (49-45 Topuria)
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Topuria (50-45 Topuria)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Topuria (49-46 Topuria)

The Official Result
Ilia Topuria def. Josh Emmett via Unanimous Decision (50-44, 50-42, 49-45)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 18, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Ilia Topuria

Angelo picks Ilia Topuria, citing his phenomenal wrestling, speed, power, and ability to adjust on the fly. He notes Topuria is the better wrestler, faster, and hits just as hard as Emmett. He acknowledges Emmett has insane power and Topuria has been rocked before, but outside of a lucky punch, Emmett won't have much to offer. He says the 3-to-1 odds seem correct.

"Ilya should absolutely work Josh Eman here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Ilia Topuria

Big Brady picks Ilia Topuria, believing he should win but notes the line is wide. He emphasizes Topuria's elite grappling and BJJ black belt, which he should use to take Emmett down. He has concerns about Topuria's cardio if the fight goes deep and his tendency to get hit, as seen against Jai Herbert. He predicts a first-round submission, but acknowledges a knockout is possible. He notes Emmett's power and age (38) as factors.

first round sub
"I'm gonna take the 40 to win this fight by first round sub"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Jun 21, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Ilia Topuria

Cody picks Topuria but with hesitation, citing concerns about Topuria's cardio in a five-round fight and the step up in competition. He notes Emmett's power and experience, and suggests this fight is better for live betting. He ultimately sides with Topuria due to youth and skills but is wary of the hype.

Live betting recommended; considers taking Emmett if Topuria drops early.
"I actually kind of think I like this one better from a live betting standpoint."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Ilia Topuria

Connor picks Topuria, focusing on the question of whether Topuria can fight outside the pocket and if Emmett can keep him out. He argues that Emmett is a potshotter who struggles when opponents force prolonged exchanges, as seen against Yair Rodriguez. Connor believes Topuria's boxing defense and counter-punching are reliable against Emmett's headhunting, but notes the massive caveat that Emmett's power is a constant threat, especially given Topuria's history of being hurt.

Odds too wide; Topuria -321 is too high given Emmett's power. Emmett could be the 'hot stove' that hurts Topuria.
"I do favor Toporia, but it cannot be ignored that like the fight I see Toporia winning is... 60 40, a suicide mission."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Ilia Topuria

Daniel Levi picks Ilia Topuria to win, citing Topuria's youth (12 years younger), superior boxing, and better jiu-jitsu. He believes Topuria will outbox and finish Emmett in the mid to late rounds. He acknowledges Emmett's power and wrestling but thinks Topuria's cardio concerns are overblown, noting Topuria's short-notice fight against Yusuff. He also mentions Topuria's ability to mix in takedowns and his overall versatility. He is not betting at -310 but is confident in the pick.

No bet at -310; thinks line is about right.
"I think tapiro is the crisper boxer I think he's better Jiu Jitsu... I tend to think the period is gonna outbox and finish them in the mid late rounds but yeah he's my pick but I have no bet …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Jun 19, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Ilia Topuria

The host picks Ilia Topuria to win but is hesitant due to the line being too wide at around -300. He notes that Josh Emmett has tremendous experience against high-level competition and that Topuria hasn't proven himself against a fighter of Emmett's caliber. He suggests value on Emmett's side and expects violence, possibly a finish from either fighter. He ultimately goes with Topuria but advises against betting the moneyline at current odds.

violence (fight doesn't go to decision)
"I'm gonna go with the young girl fighter here in toporia but I think the line is a little bit too wide if anybody's looking to chase value on Josh Ahmed I think the value at least from my perspective …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Ilia Topuria

Paul picks Topuria, acknowledging his elite boxing and jiu-jitsu, but notes the only question mark is his chin after being dropped by Jai Herbert. He thinks the line is accurate and that Topuria outclasses Emmett in many departments, but he won't tie himself financially to this fight.

"I think the line is relatively pretty accurate here at minus 325 like if they fought 10 times he probably wins seven to eight."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Ilia Topuria

The Guru picks Ilia Topuria to win, citing Topuria's youth (26 vs 38), longer layoff without damage, and superior combination punching. He notes Emmett's tendency to throw only 1-2 shots before resetting, while Topuria strings together multi-punch combinations with pauses that can catch Emmett coming out of his own exchanges. He also mentions Emmett's quick turnaround after a war with Yair Rodriguez and brutal weight cuts as potential factors. However, he acknowledges both have one-punch KO power and calls it a dangerous fight, closer to 60-40 than the lopsided public polling suggests.

Mentions that both can knock each other out in the first round; notes Emmett got gifted decisions against Kattar and Ige, implying he's overranked.
"I'm picking Ilya to Puria to win in no way at whatsoever should the poll on topology be 92 Superior eight percent Josh Emmett... this is arguably like a 60 40 type of fight to Ilya to Puria"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Ilia Topuria

Zane picks Topuria, emphasizing that Emmett's style is vulnerable to aggressive pressure fighters who don't respect his power, as seen in losses to Yair Rodriguez and Jeremy Stephens. He notes Topuria's superior boxing technique and body punching, but acknowledges the risk of Topuria's recklessness and Emmett's one-shot power. Zane sees Topuria as the more skilled pocket fighter but warns that Emmett could land a fight-ending shot at any moment.

Odds too wide; Topuria opened -299 now -321, Emmett +253 to +270. Topuria's best win is Bryce Mitchell, not a comparable physical test.
"I got to pick Toporia to the assertiveness and the persistence in the form... I have to pick Toporia here."
Submission (arm-triangle choke) R2 3:10 · UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev · Dec 10, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ilia Topuria 0 36 of 82 43% 46 of 94 1 of 9 11% 0 0 1:29
Bryce Mitchell 1 40 of 77 51% 53 of 93 0 of 0 --- 1 0 1:18
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ilia Topuria 0 21 of 52 40% 31 of 64 1 of 5 20% 0 0 1:29
Bryce Mitchell 0 17 of 38 44% 27 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Ilia Topuria 0 15 of 30 50% 15 of 30 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:00
Bryce Mitchell 1 23 of 39 58% 26 of 43 0 of 0 --- 1 0 1:18
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ilia Topuria 36 of 82 43% 22 of 57 11 of 22 3 of 3 34 of 79 1 of 1 1 of 2
Bryce Mitchell 40 of 77 51% 34 of 63 5 of 13 1 of 1 29 of 64 3 of 4 8 of 9
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ilia Topuria 21 of 52 40% 13 of 38 6 of 12 2 of 2 20 of 50 0 of 0 1 of 2
Bryce Mitchell 17 of 38 44% 12 of 27 4 of 10 1 of 1 16 of 37 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Ilia Topuria 15 of 30 50% 9 of 19 5 of 10 1 of 1 14 of 29 1 of 1 0 of 0
Bryce Mitchell 23 of 39 58% 22 of 36 1 of 3 0 of 0 13 of 27 2 of 3 8 of 9
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Bryce Mitchell vs. Ilia Topuria
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Topuria (-135), Mitchell (+115)

Round 1
In this main card opener, only one undefeated fighter will remain shortly. Entering into his seventh outing as a UFC fighter, “Thug Nasty” Mitchell (15-0, 6-0 UFC) would very much like to spoil the fellow perfect record of Topuria (12-0, 4-0 UFC), all while sporting special camouflage fight shorts. Topuria does not receive special apparel, but he does celebrate a 92% finish rate that could play a factor very soon. 2022 Referee of the Year award winner Marc Goddard is on the call for this important featherweight pairing, and the fighters he oversees do not bother touching gloves first. Topuria stays low, and he wades forward into action. After Mitchell leads off with a kick to the knee and a side kick, Topuria blasts the Arkansas native in the face with four powerful punches. Topuria digs into the lead calf with a kick to force an immediate stance switch, and Mitchell shoots in for a takedown that fails. Topuria meet him in the middle and catches Michell cleanly with a right hand, and Mitchell responds with a few solid jabs and a low kick. Topuria connects with a right hand down Broadway, and Mitchell replies with a left. The single hooks from Topuria get around the guard and get Mitchell’s attention, with his right finding the target again and again. Mitchell tosses out a front kick that aims at the face, and he shoots for a failed takedown that Topuria easily avoids. As they clash together, a cut opens on the inner left eyebrow of the American. Mitchell lines up two punches and changes levels for a low single, but Topuria springs away to push his back to the wall. Topuria nearly turns things around, forcing Mitchell to drop to a knee, and ultimately stopping the entry. Mitchell releases the clinch and gets off a body shot, but Topuria rings his bell with an overhand right. “El Matador” throws two punches so hard he stumbles, but Mitchell does not capitalize on this and instead allows Topuria to return to striking stance. Topuria dodges a kick and uses head movement to work his way in, and Mitchell crashes forward and practically tackles Topuria to put him on his back. “Thug Nasty” lands in half guard, but Topuria pulls him back to the guard and boxes the ear from off his back. Mitchell scores a few punches, but Topuria stings him with a left hand off his back. Mitchell rides out the top position until the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Topuria
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Topuria
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Topuria

Round 2
Mitchell starts the second round rushing forward, but ultimately he walks into two lightning-quick punches. Mitchell attempts to respond with a side kick, but Topuria pushes it aside and stuffs a takedown try. When Mitchell stands up, Topuria nails his man in the face with a pair of strikes. Mitchell recovers and gets backed off by the swinging offense of his opponent, and they clash together again and may bump heads, but Mitchell cannot ground him with another effort. Mitchell looks to time the overhand right with takedown tries, but time and time again, he falls short. Topuria overthrows a punch, and Mitchell gets his attention with a short combo that fires up the crowd. Topuria sets up an uppercut with two punches to follow it, and he knocks the Arkansan off his feet and down to the mat. Topuria leaps down to possibly pull off a neck-based choke, but a bloodied Mitchell welcomes this so that he can set up a scramble or go for a submission. Topuria does not let him off the hook, bludgeoning him repeatedly with thunderous blows until Mitchell works his way up. Mitchell attempts to get a takedown when Topuria is laying into him, but Topuria throws him over to the mat like a kid wrestling with his dad. A deflated Mitchell tries with all his might to turn or twist, and he manages to sit up. This is not the best position for him, as Topuria snatches on to a seated arm-triangle choke and hurls Mitchell back down, with the submission exceptionally tight. The submission specialist Mitchell, who had won 15 fights as a pro – the loss the UFC claimed took place on “The Ultimate Fighter” and was an exhibition match – surrenders for the first time in his career. This is a massive victory for Topuria, who stamps himself as a featherweight contender and calls for a UFC card in Spain.

The Official Result
Ilia Topuria def. Bryce Mitchell R2 3:10 via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Ilia Topuria

Angelo is extremely confident Topuria wins, calling him a world-class wrestler from Georgia who can outstrike and outwrestle Mitchell. He compares it to Roman Dolidze vs Jack Hermansson, where the world-class wrestler dominated. He has a moneyline bet on Topuria placed earlier and is shocked Topuria isn't a 9-1 favorite. He believes Mitchell's Arkansas wrestling is no match for Topuria's lifelong Georgian wrestling.

Moneyline bet placed earlier; interested in takedown prop bets (who gets more takedowns).
"Ilia taporia is going to smoke Vice Mitchell he can outstrike him he can out wrestle him he's gonna do whatever the hell he wants"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Dec 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Bryce Mitchell

Big Brady slightly leans toward Bryce Mitchell as a dog, citing Mitchell's superior cardio and wrestling. He notes Topuria has shown cardio issues in his only decision win, while Mitchell has improved striking and can push a pace. He expects a back-and-forth war with Mitchell edging out a split decision, but has low confidence.

Mitchell wins by decision; fight goes to decision
"I think I'm gonna slightly lean with the dog in in Bryce Mitchell... give me Bryce Mitchell for the decision win but no confidence in it"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Bryce Mitchell

Cody picks Bryce Mitchell, citing his development, wrestling, durability, and cardio. He thinks Mitchell's pressure and takedowns will be key, and that Topuria's wrestling may not be enough to stop him. He notes Topuria's close fight with Herbert Burns and that Mitchell has better cardio and can take over late. He predicts Mitchell by decision.

Mitchell by decision
"I think it's a Bryce Mitchell decision I think he just he gets the takedowns he backs him up he puts the pressure gives a punch to take a punch sure but just you know is the guy that's continuously …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 8, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Bryce Mitchell

Connor picks Mitchell, citing his versatility, wrestling, and ability to take advantage of opportunities. He notes Topuria has a narrow approach and Mitchell has proven he can adapt and take fights where he wants. Connor believes Mitchell's takedowns and top control will be decisive, as Topuria hasn't faced a grappler of Mitchell's caliber.

Odds: Mitchell opened +130, now +119; Topuria opened -150, now -143.
"I'm going to pick him here because I think Taporia's just got a slightly narrower approach. Mitchell has already proven in multiple fights that he can take whatever opportunities his opponent gives him."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Ilia Topuria

Daniel Levi picks Ilia Topuria to hand Bryce Mitchell his first loss. He is impressed by Topuria's fast-twitch athleticism, nasty hands, body work, and Greco-Roman wrestling background. Levi notes Topuria's ability to stuff takedowns and his proven heart (coming back from a head kick knockdown). He believes Topuria's athleticism and well-rounded game will be too much for Mitchell, who relies on relentless takedown attempts. Levi acknowledges Mitchell's toughness and top control but thinks Topuria can sprawl and brawl, making Mitchell pay for his shots.

"I'm gonna go with Ilya taporia to hand Bryce Mitchell his first official defeat"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 9, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Ilia Topuria

Lock likes Topuria on the moneyline and on PredictionStrike, noting that at -130 and $1.75 on PredictionStrike, there is good value. He acknowledges question marks about Topuria's third round against Yousuff and getting rocked by Jai Herbert, but credits him for battling back from adversity. He believes Topuria has tremendous potential and that the hype is justified, though he needs to prove it. He recommends taking Topuria on PredictionStrike and moneyline, while for Mitchell, he suggests just the moneyline as a dog.

"here minus 130 and on prediction strike as the quote unquote Underdog in this matchup on prediction strike I think you can get a damn good return on your advice investment should you bet him on the money line and …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Dec 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Bryce Mitchell

Paul picks Mitchell, noting his intelligence in the fight and ability to pick his spots. He thinks Mitchell's wrestling and submission threat will be a factor, and that Topuria's power and speed are dangerous early. He suggests a Mitchell round 3 prop or live betting, as Mitchell may take over later. He is not fully confident but leans Mitchell.

Mitchell round 3 prop (suggested)
"I'm gonna pick Mitchell but I think this is more like a maybe maybe we jump on to like a Mitchell round three prop"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Ilia Topuria

The MMA Guru picks Ilia Topuria over Bryce Mitchell by first-round TKO via body shots. He respects Mitchell's skills but believes Topuria's boxing is too clean and he will push Mitchell backwards, ripping body shots. He notes Topuria's scrambling ability and submission threats, and thinks Mitchell will struggle to get takedowns. He predicts Topuria finishes him early.

"I'm gonna go with Ilya to Puria over Bryce Mitchell"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 8, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Ilia Topuria

Zane picks Topuria, citing his confidence on the ground from the Ryan Hall fight and his superior athleticism. He believes Topuria's grappling will get him back to his feet repeatedly, and his striking pressure will force Mitchell to process the fight too often. Zane notes Mitchell's striking gaps when he's indecisive, and Topuria's body punching will be key.

Odds: Mitchell opened +130, now +119; Topuria opened -150, now -143.
"I'm going to stick with Taporia here because I do think that Taporia's confidence on the ground, as shown in the Ryan Hall fight, is well earned out of very, very smart and well-trained positional control."
WIN vs Jai Herbert
KO (punches) R2 1:07 · UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Aspinall · Mar 19, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ilia Topuria 1 22 of 63 34% 50 of 94 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Jai Herbert 1 20 of 41 48% 31 of 55 1 of 4 25% 0 0 2:41
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ilia Topuria 1 19 of 47 40% 47 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Jai Herbert 0 12 of 27 44% 23 of 41 1 of 4 25% 0 0 2:38
2 Ilia Topuria 0 3 of 16 18% 3 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jai Herbert 1 8 of 14 57% 8 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ilia Topuria 22 of 63 34% 20 of 60 1 of 2 1 of 1 19 of 59 1 of 1 2 of 3
Jai Herbert 20 of 41 48% 17 of 37 3 of 4 0 of 0 14 of 35 2 of 2 4 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ilia Topuria 19 of 47 40% 18 of 45 0 of 1 1 of 1 16 of 43 1 of 1 2 of 3
Jai Herbert 12 of 27 44% 11 of 25 1 of 2 0 of 0 6 of 21 2 of 2 4 of 4
2 Ilia Topuria 3 of 16 18% 2 of 15 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jai Herbert 8 of 14 57% 6 of 12 2 of 2 0 of 0 8 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jai Herbert vs. Ilia Topuria

Round 1
Kicking off the main card is a classic stylistic battle when the appropriately titled “Black Country Banger” Herbert (11-3, 1-2 UFC) faces off against Spanish submission threat Topuria (11-0, 3-0 UFC) in the lightweight division. Trying to keep a lid on what is sure to be a fast-paced tilt will be referee Marc Goddard, although he does not need to worry about disrespect as the two touch gloves first. Herbert bounces up and down before snapping out a jab, and he steps in with a knee when Topuria advances towards him. Herbert keeps his opponent at bay with long, rangy strikes, getting the smaller Topuria’s attention quickly. Herbert lets his hands go and follows it with a head kick, dropping Topuria in the opening minute, and the audience bursts into cheers for their local man. “El Matador” springs back to his feet and crashes forward to go after a takedown, pushing Herbert all the way back to the cage but not getting him down. After multiple fence grabs from Herbert, Topuria is finally able to lift him up off the ground and slam him to the mat with emphasis. Topuria lands in side control, where he starts to isolate Herbert’s right arm and set up a crucifix. The scrambling Brit is able to recover his position, and he drags Topuria all the way back to his guard. Topuria madly dashes to try to pass guard, smashing Herbert in the face a few times, and he gets kicked off briefly but dives back on top. Herbert ties Topuria up, defending himself from much offense and keeping Topuria in his guard, but Topuria slowly works his way to open up on punches. Herbert scrambles, and he forces his way back to his feet and blasts Topuria with a back-elbow. Topuria is wobbled, and Herbert drills him with a long combination that knocks Topuria back. Goddard stops the fight for a second to replace Topuria’s mouthpiece, as it had been knocked out from the heavy punches from the Brit. Topuria gathers himself, as Herbert lets him off the hook and allows the Georgian to attack with winging punches. Herbert intercepts his man with a knee as Topuria comes in, and the mouthpiece goes flying again in a cinematic fashion. Topuria’s chin holds up, and the two lightweights furiously slug it out to the bell. What a round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Herbert
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Herbert
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Herbert

Round 2
The second round begins with Topuria aggressive, stalking Herbert down and trying to take the Brit’s reach advantage away from him. Topuria wings a right hand that just misses as Herbert kicks the body, and Herbert ducks back by an inch to avoid the massive blow. Herbert aims an uppercut that comes up short, and he strafes back and forth while Topuria comes after him.
With bad intentions in his eyes, Topuria stalks Herbert down and wings a few punches at him. Herbert reaches out with a jab, and “El Matador” unleashes a right behind the ear, a thudding left to the body and an earthshattering right hand flush on the chin that sends Herbert collapsing to the ground in a crumpled heap.
As the crowd goes completely silent, Topuria walks away without bothering to deliver a follow-up blow, with Herbert out cold beneath him. Making the most of his post-fight interview moment, Topuria does not call for bonus money – his work should speak for itself – but instead sets his sights on “that blonde b---ch” Paddy Pimblett. Should Pimblett win later tonight, matchmakers can take the day off as that came together without them having to budge.

The Official Result
Ilia Topuria def. Jai Herbert R2 1:07 via KO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 12, 2022 (7 days before fight)
Ilia Topuria

Angelo picks Ilia Topuria to win by stoppage, citing his well-rounded game and ability to win on the feet or via wrestling. He notes that Jai Herbert has been taken down multiple times by opponents like Moicano and Trinaldo, and expects Topuria to do the same. He plans to bet on an Ilia Topuria wins inside the distance prop.

wins inside the distance prop bet
"i'm probably going to be looking for an iliad supporia wins inside the distance prop bet here when those lines drop"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Ilia Topuria

Big Brady picks Ilia Topuria to win by first-round submission. He notes Topuria is moving up a weight class on short notice and faces a massive size disadvantage, but he believes Topuria's grappling is elite and Jai Herbert has shown horrendous takedown defense and a weak chin. Brady expects Topuria to take the fight to the mat and submit Herbert quickly, as Herbert has little ground game and poor durability.

first round submission
"give me deforia first round submission i think there are levels to this"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lock picked Mar 16, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Ilia Topuria

Cody picks Topuria as a lock, citing his superior grappling and Herbert's weak chin. He thinks Topuria can win by submission or KO, and notes that Herbert has been knocked out by lesser fighters. He calls Topuria the top ticket.

"topuria is your top ticket and i can't really argue against that in any way shape or form"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Mar 17, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Ilia Topuria

Daniel Levi picks Ilia Topuria, but with reservations. He notes that Topuria has finished all his UFC fights in the first round except against a short-notice opponent, where he gassed. Levi believes Topuria's ground game is a huge advantage, as Herbert has poor wrestling and chin issues. However, he warns against overhyping Topuria, as Herbert has a puncher's chance with his reach and power. Levi expects a finish inside the distance.

Herbert by KO/TKO +700; Topuria by submission +100
"give me toporia to win this fight but i think we need to kind of pump the brakes on this future top five talk"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 16, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Ilia Topuria

Topuria should replicate what Moicano did to Herbert: get the fight to the ground and use superior jiu-jitsu for a finish. Herbert is a good striker but struggles against grapplers with heavy top pressure. 23 of 25 fights for these two haven't gone to decision, and that trend should continue. The fight doesn't go to decision at -350 is a better bet than Topuria straight. I'm picking Topuria via first-round submission.

Fight doesn't go to decision (-350); Topuria via submission round 1
"I like Topuria quite a bit here I think he goes out there runs through Jai Herbert and gets that first round finish."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lock picked Mar 16, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Ilia Topuria

Paul picks Topuria as a lock, emphasizing Herbert's defensive liabilities and Topuria's all-around game. He notes that Herbert has been knocked out by lesser punchers and that Topuria's grappling is a major threat. He agrees Topuria is the top ticket.

"he's a top ticket guy he's our play this week"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Ilia Topuria

The Guru picks Ilia Topuria but thinks the odds are too wide; he should be around -200. He notes Jai Herbert's weak chin and lack of physical strength, calling him a 'malnourished lightweight.' He believes Topuria's grappling and power will be too much, predicting a first-round TKO. He acknowledges an upset is possible but favors Topuria's skill set.

first round TKO, odds should be -200
"i'm going to go with ilya superior... the odds should not be what they are... i'll say first round tko"
WIN vs Ryan Hall
KO (punches) R1 4:47 · UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3 · Jul 10, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ilia Topuria 0 10 of 17 58% 13 of 21 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Ryan Hall 0 18 of 32 56% 18 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:20
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ilia Topuria 0 10 of 17 58% 13 of 21 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Ryan Hall 0 18 of 32 56% 18 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:20
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ilia Topuria 10 of 17 58% 2 of 7 4 of 5 4 of 5 9 of 16 0 of 0 1 of 1
Ryan Hall 18 of 32 56% 11 of 24 2 of 2 5 of 6 3 of 8 0 of 0 15 of 24
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ilia Topuria 10 of 17 58% 2 of 7 4 of 5 4 of 5 9 of 16 0 of 0 1 of 1
Ryan Hall 18 of 32 56% 11 of 24 2 of 2 5 of 6 3 of 8 0 of 0 15 of 24
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Ryan Hall vs. Ilia Topuria

Round 1
The next matchup is a highly anticipated featherweight tilt between the returning grappling wizard Hall (8-1, 4-0 UFC) against the unbeaten Spaniard Topuria (10-0, 2-0 UFC). Something’s gotta give between these two, with Hall’s last loss coming in 2006 while Topuria has yet to taste defeat. Referee Jason Herzog will be taking charge to make sure everything is above board, and a half-hearted glove touch is what we get to start the fight. Hall meets him in the center of the cage and backs away, circling around the cage while Topuria stalks him down. Hall lands the first strike, a kick to the body, and Topuria just looks at him. Hall pump-fakes a possible takedown to get a reaction out of the Spaniard, and he hits him with a spinning hook kick. Hall rolls for an Imanari roll to pursue a leg, and Topuria does not bite, kicks his outstretched leg a few times and lets him stand back up. Hall whiffs on a left hand, and another as he rolls for some sort of a tackle to grab Topuria’s leg. Once more, Topuria shrugs it off and lets Hall somersault around to miss. Hall’s fourth roll manages to snare Topuria, and he grabs Topuria’s glove to hold on to him but cannot keep him grounded. Hall rolls through and elbows Topuria in the side of the head, and Topuria takes his back and lands a few punches before breaking free. Hall walks into a few punches, and Topuria gets confident as he cracks Hall with a right hand. Hall flops to roll and take him down, and he lets Topuria wade into his guard but Topuria springs out of the way. Hall ducks a punch with his hands down, and he boots Topuria in the body twice. “The Wizard” rolls through a few more times, and Topuria never bites so the crowd begins to turn on him. The Spaniard stings him with a right hand, and Hall ducks down to roll and grab a heel but cannot get it. Hall continues to roll around and pop back up as if he were in a gymnastics class, and Topuria walks into a right hand but darts out of the way from yet another Hall roll. Hall connects with a spinning heel kick, and he dodges and weaves from any Topuria aggression. When Hall attempts another heel kick, Topuria closes the distance to bully Hall to the ground.
“El Matador” dives after him and stuns him with hammerfists, and his right hand starts to do damage as he continues to club Hall on the chin again and again. As Hall turns to his side, he has no where else to go and is trapped, and Topuria keeps smashing him in the face. The damage mounts until Hall is relieved of his consciousness, and Herzog steps in to stop the fight.
This is a huge win for the undefeated Topuria, who may have just earned a spot on the rankings with a smart performance.

The Official Result
Ilia Topuria def. Ryan Hall R1 4:47 via KO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 2, 2021 (8 days before fight)
Ilia Topuria

Angelo picks Topuria, believing the sport has passed Hall by. He notes Topuria has superior wrestling, traditional jiu-jitsu, and striking. He doesn't see Hall catching Topuria in a submission. He agrees with the DraftKings price and odds.

"i think the sport has sort of passed him by i think japora's uh legitimate wrestling background combined with his jiu-jitsu i think he can get it to the ground"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 4, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Ilia Topuria

Big Brady picks Ilia Topuria to win by decision. He notes Topuria is good everywhere, a great striker with power, a solid wrestler, and a black belt in BJJ. He thinks Topuria can close the distance and keep the fight on the feet, avoiding Hall's guard. He acknowledges Hall's tricky style and underrated striking, but believes Topuria's youth, activity, and game plan will prevail. He mentions a possible knockout but leans decision.

"i do think he's going to win a decision against ryan hall"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Ilia Topuria

Cody picks Topuria, citing his body work, power, and takedown defense. He notes Hall's dangerous jiu-jitsu but thinks Topuria's striking and physicality will be too much. He expects Topuria to win by decision or TKO.

"ilia torpurio wins 70 to 75 percent of the time in this matchup and i think it's a lot of like he just like melts his body and just roasts his liver"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Ilia Topuria

Daniel Levi picks Ilia Topuria to win. He respects Ryan Hall's unique leglock game and spin kicks, but believes Topuria's confidence, youth, and well-rounded skills will neutralize Hall. He notes that Topuria has knockout power, good grappling, and heart, as shown when he got dropped and came back to win. He worries that Topuria's overconfidence could lead him to engage on the mat, but thinks he has the goods to win. He finds the plus 200 on Hall tempting but sticks with Topuria.

"i'm going to take to porya"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lock picked Jul 2, 2021 (8 days before fight)
Ryan Hall

Jacob is extremely confident in Hall, calling it his most confident lock of the week ever. He believes Hall's unorthodox jiu-jitsu and kicks will lead to a submission. He notes Hall's ability to incorporate kicks to set up takedowns and that nobody wants to fight him. He plans to bet on Hall at plus odds.

Ryan Hall by submission at plus odds
"the most confident lock of the week i've ever had in my life ryan hall will find a way to submit this guy"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Ilia Topuria

I'm going with Topuria by KO. He is a young, hot prospect with great grappling and striking. Hall is wild and unorthodox, but Topuria's striking is much better. Topuria can also grapple with Hall if needed. I think Topuria will land a knockout after accumulating damage, probably in the second or third round. I like Topuria inside the distance and by KO.

Topuria inside the distance (+120), Topuria by KO (+195)
"i'm going with tuporia by finish... i think that tupora definitely can um find the knockout shot here"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Ilia Topuria

Paul picks Topuria, noting his well-rounded skills, youth, and improvement. He thinks Topuria's takedown defense and striking will neutralize Hall's jiu-jitsu. He expects Topuria to dictate where the fight takes place and win by decision.

"i'm going to take to pouria i'm leaning towards that deporya by decision"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2021 (fight day)
Ilia Topuria

The Guru predicts Topuria will win by first-round KO. He expects Hall to dive for leg locks and use imanari rolls, but Topuria will escape and kick Hall's leg while Hall is on his back. Hall will get back up and throw wheel kicks, but each time Topuria will close the distance and smother him. Topuria will work the body throughout, causing Hall to hunch over. Then Topuria will land a lead left hook to the body followed by a right hand over the top to knock Hall out.

Topuria wins by KO in round 1
"ilya tapiria gets this one done by first round ko body shot right hand over the top lands on ryan hall who's expecting body shots"
Justin Gaethje - Fight History
SCHED vs Ilia Topuria
UFC Freedom 250 · Jun 14, 2026
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked Jun 3, 2026 (11 days before fight)
Ilia Topuria

AJ believes Topuria's hands are too precise and his boxing is too elite for Gaethje. He mentions that Gaethje's calf kicks and forward pressure give him a chance, but ultimately Topuria's striking is different and he expects Topuria to get the win.

"I think Tapori is a problem... I think Tapora's striking is different."
Decision R5 5:00 · UFC 324 · Jan 24, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Justin Gaethje 2 144 of 254 56% 200 of 313 3 of 3 100% 0 0 5:55
Paddy Pimblett 0 156 of 311 50% 170 of 326 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:48
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Justin Gaethje 1 27 of 45 60% 40 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:01
Paddy Pimblett 0 37 of 65 56% 38 of 66 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Justin Gaethje 1 32 of 50 64% 52 of 70 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:23
Paddy Pimblett 0 22 of 47 46% 25 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Justin Gaethje 0 24 of 53 45% 25 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Paddy Pimblett 0 41 of 78 52% 42 of 79 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Justin Gaethje 0 32 of 54 59% 44 of 66 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:26
Paddy Pimblett 0 35 of 58 60% 36 of 59 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
5 Justin Gaethje 0 29 of 52 55% 39 of 65 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:05
Paddy Pimblett 0 21 of 63 33% 29 of 72 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:48
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Justin Gaethje 144 of 254 56% 120 of 222 15 of 21 9 of 11 102 of 198 20 of 27 22 of 29
Paddy Pimblett 156 of 311 50% 83 of 221 48 of 63 25 of 27 140 of 284 16 of 27 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Justin Gaethje 27 of 45 60% 23 of 40 3 of 3 1 of 2 22 of 37 1 of 1 4 of 7
Paddy Pimblett 37 of 65 56% 17 of 43 12 of 14 8 of 8 30 of 58 7 of 7 0 of 0
2 Justin Gaethje 32 of 50 64% 30 of 45 2 of 5 0 of 0 13 of 27 5 of 6 14 of 17
Paddy Pimblett 22 of 47 46% 9 of 31 7 of 10 6 of 6 18 of 37 4 of 10 0 of 0
3 Justin Gaethje 24 of 53 45% 16 of 42 3 of 5 5 of 6 24 of 53 0 of 0 0 of 0
Paddy Pimblett 41 of 78 52% 21 of 54 11 of 14 9 of 10 41 of 78 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Justin Gaethje 32 of 54 59% 27 of 48 3 of 4 2 of 2 21 of 39 7 of 10 4 of 5
Paddy Pimblett 35 of 58 60% 19 of 38 14 of 18 2 of 2 33 of 55 2 of 3 0 of 0
5 Justin Gaethje 29 of 52 55% 24 of 47 4 of 4 1 of 1 22 of 42 7 of 10 0 of 0
Paddy Pimblett 21 of 63 33% 17 of 55 4 of 7 0 of 1 18 of 56 3 of 7 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Justin Gaethje vs. Paddy Pimblett
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Pimblett (-230), Gaethje (+190)

Round 1
If the UFC wanted an action-packed headliner in its inaugural Paramount effort, it could do little worse than placing bonus magnet Gaethje (26-5, 9-5 UFC) in the marquee. He vies for the interim lightweight strap, as Ilia Topuria still holds the disputed belt while he takes time off. To become an ultra-rare two-time UFC interim champion, “The Highlight” will have to get past brash Liverpudlian and submission specialist Pimblett (23-3, 7-0 UFC). Whether this one takes place on the ground or predominantly on the feet, it will first commence with referee Marc Goddard bringing the two together to issue final instructions. One last fist bump seals the cage around them, and it’s time for some action.
Gaethje gets right to walking the Brit down, who keeps him at bay early with a few sweeping low kicks. Pimblett loops a right hand around the guard, stumbling “The Highlight” for a brief moment. Pimblett then lands a right hand and a body kick, and he gets off a low kick as well before getting caught with an overhand right. Gaethje works the body, and Pimblett knocks him back with a looping hook. Pimblett intercepts an advancing Gaethje with a knee and a crisp right hand, nailing the American until he gets hit with something he does not like and turns to the side. Gaethje unloads, blasting the Scouser with an uppercut that knocks him down to the floor. Pimblett rolls over to avoid the diving punch that he still can sense is coming, turning to his knees to survive the attack. When Gaethje backs off, he lets Pimblett stand and walks face-first into an uppercut. Gaethje marches down the retreating Pimblett with impunity, keeping Pimblett to the wall and knocking him down with a kick. Pimblett stands, and he knees Gaethje square in the face and makes him laugh.
Gaethje is throwing everything he has at Pimblett, charging recklessly and not showing one iota of concern about the heat coming back at him. Pimblett gets him with a few body shots, and Gaethje whiffs with his haymaker and grabs his foe from behind. Pimblett grabs the fence to improve his position, and they trade short strikes on the inside until separating. Gaethje is right in Pimblett’s face, pitching big kicks while Gaethje is headhunting. Pimblett times his uppercut again, as Gaethje ducks into it almost every time. Pimblett kicks and keeps himself composed, and Gaethje drills him with a right hand and posts off with his left to jam a finger in the eye socket of “The Baddy.” Goddard immediately calls time, and Pimblett motions to the crowd with confusion as to why they are booing him after a clear eye poke. Gaethje paces back and forth while waiting for a minute for Pimblett to recover, and Goddard issues a hard warning saying one more foul would result in a point deduction. When they get back to it, Pimblett sets up kicks, including to the dome and a few to the front leg. Gaethje shrugs them off and belts the Brit with fierce hooks, and Pimblett throws back with a vengeance until they tie up from momentums clashing. Pimblett, with his back to the wall, jams Gaethje in the chest with a few knees, and he just misses on a spinning back elbow. Gaethje scores a right hand and tries to throw a low kick, but he throws himself off-balance. The dramatic round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje

Round 2
The lightweights high-five to get going, and Pimblett quickly revs up his engine as Gaethje bears down on him. Gaethje drills Pimblett coming at him, and he absorbs a few low kicks on his way forward. Gaethje swings so hard he almost falls over, and Pimblett drops to his knees to defend what turns into a half-hearted takedown with a head lock control. Gaethje lands a few short uppercuts before they work back to their feet. Pimblett lands a body kick and gets popped with a left, and he develops some swelling on his right eye. Pimblett falls over when kicking, and Gaethje looks at him, lets him back up and lays into him with swarming punches. Pimblett connects with a few clean knees, and his uppercut is money in the bank, but Gaethje ignores it all and keeps on him swinging with everything he has. Pimblett sinks in a low kick and narrowly misses a “Mortal Kombat”-esque uppercut, and he settles himself down to lump Gaethje up with knees to the body.
They split apart, and Gaethje ducks a haymaker to clip the Liverpudlian. Pimblett ties him up and delivers a bouquet of knees to the sternum, and he takes a right hand on the temple that changes his facial expression. Gaethje walks through a low kick to measure Pimblett when swaying, and he allows Pimblett to drop down so he can grab him by the back of the neck and force him down. Gaethje knees his foe in the shoulder when holding on, and Pimblett bides his time while Gaethje is pressing on him. Pimblett forces his way back up, and he takes a knee that knocks him right back down. It may have been a flash knockdown, but it is enough to set a chain of events in motion where Gaethje further presses his foot on the gas to beat down on “The Baddy.” Pimblett survives and hits the deck from the oncoming blows, with Gaethje then dropping down punishment on him in hopes of finishing the fight. Pimblett looks for an upkick to keep him safe, but Gaethje leaps through it and bashes his face in. A bloodied Pimblett barely survives the barrage of blistering blows, and he makes it to the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-8 Gaethje
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje

Round 3
Between rounds, replays show that Gaethje thumbed Pimblett in the eye, which is what might have hurt him to start. Because it was not called during the round, Goddard cannot go back and assess a penalty. They start up after a 10-minute brawl, and Pimblett gets knocked down within seconds, but it might have been part of his evasion plan as he pops back up no worse for wear. Gaethje walks him down and loads up on leg kicks which made him famous, and he prepares a check when he sees Pimblett is about to respond in kind. Gaethje meanders forward, lunging in but taking some damage on the way. Pimblett scores a calf kick and pumps out his sharp jab, and he shoulder rolls what Gaethje whips at him. Gaethje does land another heavy calf kick, and fans start changing his name. Pimblett chains punches together, and Gaethje sways and pulls back before committing. He walks Pimblett to the wall and is quite inaccurate when loading up, allowing Pimblett to circle out and keep working the jab.
The volume from Gaethje has slowed significantly, but his leg kick is finding its home repeatedly. Gaethje drills his foe with an overhand right, and Pimblett goes to the body with a kick response. Pimblett’s kicks might be making a difference, as Gaethje’s movement is compromised and he is favoring his right hand. His left still gets through, but Pimblett rocks him with a series of punches. Pimblett takes advantage of the slowing Arizonan by picking at him with jabs and follow-up punches, and he leaps at his foe with a knee that bangs into the cup. Gaethje grabs his groin and groans, and Goddard calls time and lets Pimblett know the knee did indeed land low. After 45 seconds, Gaethje is good to go, and they resume with less than a minute remaining in the round. Pimblett beats Gaethje to the punch, the fresher of the two with heavy right hands that set up a big head kick. Gaethje rips a kick to the liver, and he snaps the head back with a jab, but Pimblett is right there throwing fire. Gaethje stuns Pimblett with a ferocious right hand, and Pimblett tanks it and points at his chest as the round wraps.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Pimblett
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Pimblett
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Pimblett

Round 4
Having reached the championship rounds, the lightweights high-five. Gaethje starts off the round with a jab to the body, and Pimblett does the same. They both pick and poke at one another’s torsos, and Gaethje sways directly into a right hand that gets his attention. Gaethje staggers his foe with a looping right, and Pimblett hops away and takes two more on the forward bow. When Pimblett rushes him for a possible takedown, Gaethje clips him on the way in and drops him to his knees. Gaethje presses on the back of the neck to hold the Scouser down, and he stands back up and knocks Pimblett to the wall. Pimblett gathers himself and flashes his jab, and he brings up a knee but is knocked off his feet by a Gaethje left. Gaethje allows him to stand, and he pressures forward and takes a flush knee but does not bat an eye. Pimblett lands a hard calf kick, and Gaethje frowns and staggers Pimblett with a powerful right. Gaethje bends Pimblett over and knees him on the back of the thigh, and when Pimblett turns, he blasts him in the face with his furious fists.
Pimblett is tough as any one of those expressions that comes to mind, with Gaethje hitting the younger man with practically everything, the kitchen sink, the chair under the announcer’s booth and the table itself. When close together, a Gaethje knee bangs into the cup, but it also strikes the body so Goddard calls it legal. Gaethje bloodies up “The Baddy,” but he does not put him away, as Pimblett marches towards him with fists and feet flying. Gaethje catches a kick, and he ducks a spin so he can blast Pimblett in the face with his monster right. Pimblett’s face is a horror show, but he still throws back and is responsive enough to make Gaethje pay on some counters. Gaethje overswings, and he blocks a high kick but does not defend a leg kick. Pimblett spurs into action, hurting Gaethje, who proceeds to knock the Liverpudlian over and lay into him with punches until they stand. When Gaethje releases him, he launches a kick, and the horn blares.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje

Round 5
The crowd is electric after 20 insane minutes of all-out combat, and they hug it out to get it going. Gaethje ducks a punch to fire off a right hand, and his subsequent jab lands cleaner. Pimblett fakes a takedown to open up offense, nailing Gaethje in the jaw with a knee but not slowing him one second. Gaethje unloads with a missile of a right hand, and Pimblett’s defense may be not great but his toughness is off the charts. Gaethje prods a jab to open up a cut on the cheek of Pimblett, who is fired up and ready to recklessly engage. Gaethje is happy to live in the fire, walking through anything fired at him to do damage. Pimblett goes all-in for a takedown, and Gaethje spins around to defend the first try and puts himself to the wall to keep his balance. Pimblett knees the body when clinched up, and Gaethje does the same.
Gaethje works his way out and skims the chin with a right, but when he loads up with another, he catches Pimblett cleanly. The otherworldly durability of the Scouser is on full display here, as he is still very much in the fight that has about two minutes remaining. Gaethje ducks a telegraphed spin, and he loads up on three successive right hands. Pimblett backs him off one single step with a jump knee, but Gaethje gives him fireballs right back. Gaethje gets caught with a stream of punches from the Brit, and he has to clinch up to keep himself on his feet now. Gaethje slows down the fiery Liverpool native to ride out most of the rest of the round, with the 10-second clapper sounding. Pimblett goes wild, jumping with a knee that slams into the cup, and Gaethje turns around and clutches his groin. Goddard does not call it, so Pimblett attacks so ferociously that he is the one to fall over. As soon as the time expires to end this tremendous title tilt, the lightweights share an embrace. Hello, "Fight of the Year? We have something for you already, just one major event in."

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje (49-46 Gaethje)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje (49-45 Gaethje)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Pimblett (48-47 Gaethje)

The Official Result
Justin Gaethje def. Paddy Pimblett via Unanimous Decision (48-47, 49-46, 49-46)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Jan 18, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Paddy Pimblett

Angelo picks Paddy Pimblett but with low confidence, calling the line disrespectful. He trusts Paddy's grappling and durability, believing he can avoid getting knocked out and land takedowns. He acknowledges Justin Gaethje's toughness and striking volume but thinks Paddy's youth and recent improvements give him the edge. He says he is not betting on this fight.

I am not betting on this main event.
"I'm going to pick Patty to win. I'm going to pick him to win because I trust him. ... I am not betting on this main event."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2026 (9 days before fight)
Paddy Pimblett

Big Brady thinks the ground is lava for Gaethje, who gets dominated and submitted when taken down. He notes Pimblett has a massive grappling advantage and will likely get the fight to the mat. On the feet, Gaethje is better but hasn't knocked anyone out recently except Poirier, and Pimblett is durable. He predicts Pimblett by second-round submission.

Pimblett by submission in round 2
"The ground is lava for Justin Gachi. You know, Gachi, he does have a wrestling background, but anytime we've seen Gachi on his back, it's been atrocious."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 21, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Justin Gaethje

Cody picks Justin Gaethje as an underdog, citing Gaethje's proven durability, cardio, and experience against top competition. He questions Paddy's resume, noting he hasn't faced the upper echelon of the division. Cody believes Gaethje's striking and pressure will be key, and he likes the plus money value.

"When it comes down to price, I end up going with Justin Gatei. Underdog play. The plus money's there on him."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Jan 22, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Justin Gaethje

Connor picks Gaethje but is hesitant, acknowledging that Pimblett's style is a real threat. He argues that Gaethje's low kicks and pocket power could be decisive, and that Pimblett's 42% striking defense is historically terrible. However, he admits Gaethje has lost speed and finishing touch, and that Pimblett's durability and grappling could cause problems. Connor ultimately trusts Gaethje's experience and power to find a finish, but says he doesn't feel good about it.

Gaethje opened at +160, now +190; Pimblett opened at -185, now -225. Connor says odds should be even.
"I'm taking Gaethje, but I don't feel good about it."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jan 8, 2026 (16 days before fight)
Paddy Pimblett

Daniel Vreeland picks Paddy Pimblett to win by finish. He notes that Gaethje is aging at 37 and has been rocked in many fights, while Pimblett is durable, improving, and has a deceptive ground game. Vreeland believes Pimblett can time Gaethje's kicks and land a hook, and that his jiu-jitsu and durability will be key. He also mentions that Gaethje has been submitted before and that Pimblett's confidence is high.

"I'm going to go Patty Pimlet to come out here, become the new UFC interim lightweight champion, and finish the legend Justin Gachi in the main event at UFC 324."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jan 14, 2026 (10 days before fight)
Paddy Pimblett

James highlights a massive grappling disparity, noting Pimblett is a legitimate black belt while Gaethje is a blue belt who admitted to not training grappling. He believes Pimblett will get the fight to the ground via clinch trips or judo throws and submit Gaethje, possibly with a triangle choke. He also notes Gaethje's durability issues and a potential staph infection. James predicts a submission win in round three.

"I'm going to pick Patty to win the fight inside the distance. I mean, five rounds is a very long time to go with such a disparity on the mat."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 20, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Paddy Pimblett

The host believes Paddy Pimblett's size, strength, and grappling will be too much for an aging Justin Gaethje. He notes that Gaethje's best chance is to box and use leg kicks, but expects Pimblett to eventually drag him to the mat and secure a submission, similar to his win over Michael Chandler. The host acknowledges the line at -225 is a bit wide but sees Pimblett catching Gaethje at the perfect time.

Pimblett by submission (rear naked choke), fight finishes inside 2.5 rounds
"I think it's just a matter of time before Pimpblelet eventually gets his hands on him, eventually drags him to the ground and gets that submission."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jan 21, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Paddy Pimblett

Paul leans toward Paddy Pimblett, noting his improved lifestyle and cardio. He believes Paddy's grappling will be the difference over five rounds, potentially securing a submission. However, he is hesitant on the money line and prefers the prop bet of Paddy by submission at +185.

Paddy Pimblett by submission +185
"I find myself leaning towards Patty Pin, but on the money line, I haven't got to it. I did take uh Patty by sub plus 185."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 23, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Paddy Pimblett

The MMA Guru picks Paddy Pimblett by submission, citing Gaethje's grappling vulnerabilities and Pimblett's jiu-jitsu. He notes that Gaethje's KO power is inconsistent and that Pimblett can slow the pace. He predicts an armbar or triangle.

submission (armbar or triangle)
"I'm going to go with Pimllet by submission."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 22, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Paddy Pimblett

Zane picks Paddy Pimblett, citing Gaethje's age (37) and mileage, his recent struggles with takedowns (e.g., against Fiziev), and Pimblett's venomous grappling and fearlessness. He notes that Gaethje's one-shot KO power has diminished and that Pimblett's chaotic style often leads to ground scrambles where Gaethje panics. Zane acknowledges Pimblett's terrible striking defense (42%) but believes his durability and ability to create weird grappling opportunities will be decisive.

Gaethje opened at +160, now +190; Pimblett opened at -185, now -225. Zane says odds should be even.
"I'm going to pick Paddy Pimblett in this fight. I think the stodgy old man on this and someone's got a pick with kg."
CANCEL vs Dan Hooker
WIN vs Rafael Fiziev
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · Mar 08, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Justin Gaethje 1 72 of 134 53% 98 of 163 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:32
Rafael Fiziev 0 68 of 119 57% 81 of 134 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:40
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Justin Gaethje 0 12 of 21 57% 17 of 27 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:14
Rafael Fiziev 0 21 of 32 65% 22 of 33 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:40
2 Justin Gaethje 1 21 of 52 40% 34 of 65 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:43
Rafael Fiziev 0 17 of 40 42% 17 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Justin Gaethje 0 39 of 61 63% 47 of 71 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:35
Rafael Fiziev 0 30 of 47 63% 42 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Justin Gaethje 72 of 134 53% 56 of 117 9 of 9 7 of 8 41 of 92 26 of 34 5 of 8
Rafael Fiziev 68 of 119 57% 20 of 61 43 of 52 5 of 6 49 of 100 14 of 14 5 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Justin Gaethje 12 of 21 57% 7 of 15 1 of 1 4 of 5 9 of 15 3 of 6 0 of 0
Rafael Fiziev 21 of 32 65% 6 of 16 13 of 14 2 of 2 9 of 20 7 of 7 5 of 5
2 Justin Gaethje 21 of 52 40% 16 of 47 4 of 4 1 of 1 11 of 39 5 of 5 5 of 8
Rafael Fiziev 17 of 40 42% 6 of 24 9 of 13 2 of 3 16 of 39 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Justin Gaethje 39 of 61 63% 33 of 55 4 of 4 2 of 2 21 of 38 18 of 23 0 of 0
Rafael Fiziev 30 of 47 63% 8 of 21 21 of 25 1 of 1 24 of 41 6 of 6 0 of 0
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Justin Gaethje

Connor picks Gaethje because he has more faith in Gaethje's cardio and durability than Fiziev's coming off a knee injury and short notice. He notes that Fiziev faded in their first fight and has not looked good since, while Gaethje's loss to Holloway was a stylistic nightmare that doesn't reflect his overall level. Connor believes Gaethje's jab and pressure will be too much for a rusty Fiziev.

Odds: Gaethje opened at -110, now +135; Fiziev opened at -110, now -163. Connor is surprised bettors are backing Fiziev.
"I'm just, I'm going to pick Gagey again, like I, yeah. He might go through the same process, but I can't have more faith in physives, uh, in physives cardio and his fitness coming off of a horrible injured, like …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Mar 6, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

Lucrative James picks Fiziev but is not confident due to intangibles like Gaethje's recent KO loss and Fiziev's knee injury layoff. He thinks Fiziev is the better striker and will land counters, but Gaethje could take over late if he pressures. He predicts Fiziev by KO, similar to his first fight prediction. He notes the line has moved from -250 to -155, indicating market correction.

Fiziev via KO; under 2.5 rounds at plus money
"I'm going to go with Rafael fiz here I'm not super confident about it but I will predict him to win the fight via KO the exact same prediction as I gave in the first iteration of this fight"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Justin Gaethje

Zane picks Gaethje, echoing Connor's reasoning about Fiziev's injury and short notice. He notes that Fiziev's pacing has always been a problem and that he tends to gas in round three. Zane also points out that Fiziev's style of crashing into Gaethje plays into Gaethje's strengths in the clinch and pocket. He is surprised by the betting line moving toward Fiziev.

Odds: Gaethje opened at -110, now +135; Fiziev opened at -110, now -163. Zane is surprised bettors are backing Fiziev.
"I got to think Gagey should be the favorite, especially on a short note, it's coming off an injury. Like, I know, I don't understand why gamblers would be leaning on Fiziv here."
LOSS vs Max Holloway
KO (punch) R5 4:59 · UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · Apr 13, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Max Holloway 0 103 of 199 51% 103 of 199 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Justin Gaethje 1 181 of 309 58% 181 of 309 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Max Holloway 0 12 of 26 46% 12 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Justin Gaethje 0 25 of 39 64% 25 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Max Holloway 0 18 of 26 69% 18 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Justin Gaethje 0 30 of 53 56% 30 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Max Holloway 0 20 of 38 52% 20 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Justin Gaethje 0 29 of 53 54% 29 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Max Holloway 0 35 of 60 58% 35 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Justin Gaethje 0 35 of 61 57% 35 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Max Holloway 0 18 of 49 36% 18 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Justin Gaethje 1 62 of 103 60% 62 of 103 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Max Holloway 103 of 199 51% 44 of 121 26 of 42 33 of 36 103 of 199 0 of 0 0 of 0
Justin Gaethje 181 of 309 58% 62 of 149 62 of 91 57 of 69 181 of 308 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Max Holloway 12 of 26 46% 4 of 15 2 of 4 6 of 7 12 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
Justin Gaethje 25 of 39 64% 10 of 18 5 of 10 10 of 11 25 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Max Holloway 18 of 26 69% 6 of 13 3 of 4 9 of 9 18 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
Justin Gaethje 30 of 53 56% 4 of 20 13 of 17 13 of 16 30 of 53 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Max Holloway 20 of 38 52% 5 of 18 9 of 14 6 of 6 20 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
Justin Gaethje 29 of 53 54% 6 of 24 13 of 18 10 of 11 29 of 53 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Max Holloway 35 of 60 58% 18 of 38 11 of 16 6 of 6 35 of 60 0 of 0 0 of 0
Justin Gaethje 35 of 61 57% 15 of 29 9 of 19 11 of 13 35 of 61 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Max Holloway 18 of 49 36% 11 of 37 1 of 4 6 of 8 18 of 49 0 of 0 0 of 0
Justin Gaethje 62 of 103 60% 27 of 58 22 of 27 13 of 18 62 of 102 0 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Bad MF Bout: Justin Gaethje vs. Max Holloway
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Gaethje (-175), Holloway (+145)

Round 1
Whether you believe the “BMF” title should matter or not, what bestowing that trophy on this next fight did was extend it to five rounds, and everyone should be thankful. It’s Justin Gaethje (25-4, 8-4 UFC) vs. Max Holloway (25-7, 21-7 UFC) in what many have pegged as a potential “Fight of the Year” entry. Nothing more needs to be said, other than that the lightweights receive instructions from referee Marc Goddard and that they touch gloves before fireworks ensue. Buckle up. The first strike likely of many comes from Holloway, who jabs the midsection and kicks it with his opposite leg. Gaethje bears down on him and loads up on an overhand right, missing the Hawaiian by inches. Gaethje sits down on a leg kick, and Holloway flicks out jabs to the body and head. Holloway pops a low kick on the thigh, and Gaethje hammers one back. Holloway sits down on a low kick and drives forward launching uppercuts. Gaethje slips back and knocks Holloway to his seat with a vicious calf kick. Holloway climbs back up without issue and bites on a feint from the BMF beltholder. Holloway strides in and lances a left hand down the middle, and Gaethje unloads and fires two big hooks. Holloway scores a clean uppercut, and he meets Gaethje in the middle and cracks him with another uppercut and a strong left hook. Gaethje keeps a solid poker face but he had his bell run in the exchange, and Holloway does not draw himself into a reckless exchange and instead measures with a front kick. Holloway prods out a left hand to intercept an advancing Gaethje, and he ignores a leg kick to mark up Gaethje’s nose. Chants for Holloway boom inside of the T-Mobile Arena, and he pokes out a leg kick and stays moving and rarely stays in the same place to not put himself in harm’s way. Holloway checks a kick, and he tosses out a half-hearted high kick. Gaethje responds with one that bounces off the shoulder, and Holloway nods at him. Holloway just misses on an uppercut, and he chips at the front leg with two kicks to the knee. Holloway checks another kick and unleashes a left and a stern right hand, and Gaethje chambers and fire a massive right hand that skims past the cheek. Holloway lunges forward with a right hand to the body, and Gaethje stumbles and gets back upright. Holloway high-fives him to make sure he is good to go, and Gaethje is fine. Holloway jabs with his foot, and a spin kick on the nose sends Gaethje flying. As the cage door opens to bring in corners for the middle of the round, Gaethje nearly falls out of the cage itself. Gaethje adjusts his nose that might have suffered some damage from the kick, and the tense round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Holloway
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Holloway
Shane Clifford scores the round: 10-9 Holloway

Round 2
Gaethje appears overly concerned about his nose to begin the round, and it starts tentatively between the two. As Holloway sticks out a few jabs, blood streams from it, and Gaethje is not happy about it. Gaethje loads up on a huge right hand, and Holloway barely slides out of the way in time. Holloway rifles out jabs to the nose, and he chains two together before releasing a high body kick. The crowd is deafening with calls for Holloway, and Gaethje absorbs a little of the energy to land a powerful leg kick. Holloway gives him one back, and he reaches out to throw hands as Gaethje comes in swinging aggressively. Holloway stretches his finger out, and it jams deep into Gaethje’s eye. Goddard sees it and immediately calls time, and Gaethje is not about to stop because of some eye damage. After about 45 seconds, Gaethje declares he is good to go, and the fighters share a glove touch before getting after it. Gaethje lands a body kick, and Holloway does too. Gaethje winds up and slings a leg kick that Holloway partially checks. Holloway jabs the body and wraps a kick up that slaps into the BMF beltholder’s armpit. Gaethje slides to the side and adjusts his nose, and he springs forward with a right hand and a low kick. Holloway stands firm in front of him and continues targeting the body with long punches. Gaethje looses a right hand as Holloway pokes his hand out, and Holloway immediately apologizes and Gaethje gets time to recover. Goddard asks Holloway to be careful, and Gaethje is irritated but only takes 20 seconds before going back to it. Gaethje releases a heavy leg kick, and Holloway can only partially defend against it. Gaethje lashes out with a right and a left, missing the mark by a small margin. Holloway pushes out a teep kick and goes after a jab to the midsection, and Gaethje punishes him with a calf kick at the right time. Holloway raises his leg up a few times to take some of the pain away, and he surges into action with a pair of clean punches. Gaethje gets away with another stunning calf kick, and Holloway reaches him back with two punches. Holloway spins with a kick, and he tosses up high a body kick as the two brawl to the conclusion of the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Holloway
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Holloway
Shane Clifford scores the round: 10-9 Holloway

Round 3
There is a touch of gloves between the fighters to get started. Gaethje parries one punch, but Holloway lands a second to the midsection. Gaethje chops at his front leg, and Holloway pitches two back. Holloway lets go with a right hand to the sternum, and he kicks Holloway in the side and takes one right back. Gaethje whips a kick at him, and it buzzes past his opponent. Holloway has a body kick graze the cup, and Gaethje shakes it off and is fine. Gaethje stabs his toes at the midsection, and Holloway jabs him in the face. When Gaethje advances, Holloway reaches him with a clean uppercut. Gaethje batters the calf with another vicious kick, and Holloway’s do not nearly have the same impact. Gaethje scores a check left hook, and front kicks from both men go flying. Holloway beans Gaethje with a one-two and he blasts Gaethje with a spinning back kick that lands on the face. Gaethje tries to fire back, and Holloway chains a number of punches that drop Gaethje to a knee. Gaethje climbs back up and swings with bad intentions, and a low kick nearly compromises the former featherweight king as his leg swells up badly. Gaethje clears the cobwebs and backs away from a lunging combination, and he ducks down and a spinning back kick catches him flush in the ribs. Gaethje steels himself and eats a right hand, and he marches Holloway down and tries to unleash the thunder. Holloway keeps moving, circling to the right way to avoid the worst of the power. Gaethje kicks him in the shoulder, and Holloway comes back throwing with a left hand. Holloway gets in an uppercut, and Gaethje unloads a right hand and a low kick in response. Holloway rips a straight right hand to the midsection, and he releases a right hand that skims past Gaethje’s ear. They clash together when throwing hands violently, and Gaethje gathers himself and checks a leg kick. Gaethje kicks the body, and Holloway does the same to mirror what Gaethje does to him. Gaethje releases two more high kicks that are block before the bell sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Holloway
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Holloway
Shane Clifford scores the round: 10-9 Holloway

Round 4
The championship rounds are reached, and they begin with a fist bump. They hand-fight with one another before Gaethje pushes out a front kick. Holloway doubles up on the same kick, leading Gaethje to slam his shin on Holloway’s swollen calf. Holloway rips a right hand to the midsection, and he kicks on the other side as Gaethje tries to catch it but releases the leg. They trade body shots, and Gaethje whizzes past with a mighty one-two. Holloway lands a body kick and scores two big punches, and Gaethje whirrs into action with a barrage of heavy punches punctuated by two big right hands. Holloway marks the face up, and he forces Gaethje to buckle so he can work the body. Holloway jabs up the face, continuing to damage Gaethje’s busted nose, and Gaethje reels when he absorbs the blows but is more than willing to ruthlessly sling leather back at him. Gaethje chops down the front leg once more, and Holloway slides away from the other blows and lands a few of his own. Gaethje catches the Hawaiian standing still, landing several punches in rapid succession before Holloway can get away. “The Highlight” further batters the front leg, and Holloway responds with an accurate uppercut. Gaethje comes up short with a haymaker, allowing Holloway to roll and counter with a right hand. Holloway steps in with a knee and eats the end of a left hand with little effect. Gaethje beats down the front leg, and Holloway ignores the pain to put three punches to together to the body and head. Gaethje uncorks a bomb of a right hand drops Holloway to his seat, in what could register as the first knockdown in Holloway’s UFC career. Holloway pops right back up and fights behind his jab, making sure not to eat any unnecessary power shots while landing his own. They both lash out with body kicks, and Gaethje puts out a front kick for good measure. Gaethje smacks Holloway with a left hand, and he stings Holloway with a left and a right before the exciting round wraps.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje
Shane Clifford scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje

Round 5
There is a shared fist bump, and a sharp inhale from the attendees of the T-Mobile Arena for what could be a ridiculous fifth and final frame. Gaethje uses his own jab, and Holloway meets him with a head kick that knocks Gaethje back several steps. Gaethje ducks a looping left hand, square into an uppercut waiting for him. He pays it no mind and jabs the body to follow it with a right over the top. Holloway spins with a kick that slides off Gaethje’s body, and he recovers and lines up two punches down Broadway. Gaethje scoops down to the Earth’s core to come up with a ferocious uppercut, and it blazes past Holloway and singes his hair. Holloway attacks, entering vintage “Blessed” mode by chaining well over a dozen punches together to the head and body. Gaethje responds with massive hooks, and Holloway spins with a back kick to the ribs. Gaethje takes a deep breath and allows Holloway to reach him with a right hand. Gaethje swipes out with a left, and Holloway’s spinning back kick again finds its home. Gaethje goes high with a kick that is blocked, and Holloway dings him with a right hand and jumps with a spin kick that catches “The Highlight.” Gaethje sits down on a low kick and jabs out with his hands, and Holloway bloodies his nose with a short blitz. Holloway ducks and digs a right hand to the body and a left to the head. Holloway connects with a solid left on the forehead, and he stomp kicks Gaethje’s knees coming in. Gaethje walks into a spin kick that connects cleanly, and he hits air when Holloway slips away. Holloway unloads with a painful kick to the body, and he strings a few more punches together. Gaethje tries to kick him upside the head, and Holloway blocks it and jumps at him with a knee. Gaethje kicks the lead leg, and Holloway is in trouble after all of this damage sustained. As Holloway hears that it’s time to power up, he points to the ground and signals that a tremendous brawl is about to ensue. Gaethje meets him in the middle, and with about 15 seconds left, everything they have left is unleashed in the Octagon. Gaethje slings violently, and Holloway does the same. Both men blast one another with hellacious power, knocking one another around the cage in a slugfest perfectly representing the “BMF” name. Holloway ducks down and channels all of his remaining energy into his right fist. “Blessed” releases it and smashes it into Gaethje’s temple, and Gaethje slumps to the ground on his face, completely annihilated. Holloway did it! With maybe one second left in a fight he was likely going to win, Holloway threw everything in the air and let the chips fall where they may. Absolutely incredible! Max Holloway is the baddest mister falcon in the UFC, and he did it in a way that will live forever on highlight reels. “Knockout of the Year” is likely well and sewn up now. The triumphant Hawaiian calls for championship fights at featherweight or lightweight, and with Alexander Volkanovski not the champ of the former, he can call his shots practically anywhere he wants. He also demands double bonus money for “Fight of the Night” and “Performance of the Night.” Give the man what he wants, for he is a superstar.

The Official Result
Max Holloway def. Justin Gaethje R5 4:59 via KO (Punch)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 7, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Justin Gaethje

Angelo picks Justin Gaethje, citing his power and wrestling as the edge. He notes Max Holloway has volume and speed, and the five rounds help Max, but Gaethje's power and wrestling give him a slight advantage. He calls the -200 odds too wide and advises against parlaying Gaethje.

Odds comment: -200 is too wide
"Justin gagei is going to be the pick but I would not be parlaying Justin gagei against somebody like Max Holloway"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Justin Gaethje

Cody believes Max Holloway is a legendary fighter but is undersized at lightweight. He points out that when Holloway jumps up, he lands volume but the bigger opponents land the more damaging shots, as seen in the Dustin Poirier fights. Gaethje is the bigger, stronger man with power and leg kicks. Cody notes Gaethje's durability and that he's been fighting the best of his career recently. He expects Gaethje to attack the leg and land the bigger hooks, and thinks Holloway will have to outpoint him for 25 minutes, which is unlikely. Cody predicts Gaethje gets the job done, likely by decision.

"I have pretty much the same opinion... gatei just being the bigger stronger more powerful man all the respect to Max Holloway he's a BMF for stepping up but he's unfortunately going to drop not drop the title he's not …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Max Holloway

Daniel Vreeland picks Max Holloway to win the BMF title, citing his superior cardio, five-round experience, and ability to make adjustments on the fly. He believes Holloway's volume and durability will overwhelm Gaethje in the later rounds, and notes Holloway's improved grappling as a potential factor. He is concerned about Gaethje's leg kicks but trusts Holloway's chin and recovery.

wins by submission +1000
"I bet on Max Holloway I got him at plus 170"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Justin Gaethje

Daniel Vreeland picks Justin Gaethje, citing Gaethje's size, power, and recent form. He notes that Holloway's move up to lightweight didn't go well before, and that Gaethje hits much harder. He also mentions that Gaethje is fighting smarter now, which plays into his advantage.

"give me gatei here um we've seen Holloway at at lightweight before did not go particularly well I don't see it going particularly well here either"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Justin Gaethje

Jeff Fox picks Justin Gaethje, agreeing with Vreeland. He notes that Holloway's path to victory is narrow, relying on volume and pressure, but Gaethje matches that. He mentions that Gaethje's punches are much harder and that he will steal rounds with power shots. He also notes that Gaethje is fighting safer now, which helps him.

"I'm not worried about Holloway's chin at all but I am worried about what that fight looked like with Dustin poer because this to me is an even worse match up for him"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Apr 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Lucrative James discusses the fight as a banger but does not make a pick. He mentions that many people think it will go the same way as Holloway's last loss at 155 to Dustin Poirier, but he is not sure. He says he will have a separate analysis video coming soon. He also notes he is looking at the odds as a gambler but does not reveal a side.

"I'm not too sure man we ain't going to get into the Stylistics or the analysis of that fight right now you already know I'll have something coming to my channel soon"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Max Holloway

Holloway's ability to go into deep waters and turn on the pressure will allow him to pull away. Gaethje has lost in championship fights in the third or fourth rounds when opponents put pressure and output on him. Holloway will overwhelm him with a barrage of shots, similar to Dustin Poirier and Eddie Alvarez, and get a stoppage in rounds 3-5.

stoppage in rounds 3-5
"I expect Max hallway to do the same here and pull off the upset"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Justin Gaethje

Paul has never liked Max Holloway at lightweight, citing his size disadvantage. He notes that Gaethje will attack the legs heavily and that Holloway has never faced a leg kicker like Gaethje. Paul mentions Holloway's volume is unmatched but his opponents land the stiffer, more damaging shots, which judges favor. He references the Dustin Poirier fights where Holloway outlanded Poirier but lost because Poirier's shots were harder. Paul sees Gaethje as the rightful favorite and expects him to win, likely by decision.

"I just have never liked Max Holloway at lightweight simple as that... gatei right rightful favor for me."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Max Holloway

The MMA Guru picks Max Holloway to win by third-round TKO, citing Holloway's volume and ability to capitalize on Gaethje's two-punch sequencing. He questions Gaethje's knockout power, noting he hasn't knocked out elite competition with punches. He believes Holloway's range, kicks, and durability will be key.

third round TKO
"Max Holloway third round TKO."
KO (head kick) R2 1:00 · UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · Jul 29, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Justin Gaethje 0 27 of 52 51% 27 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dustin Poirier 1 41 of 66 62% 41 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Justin Gaethje 0 27 of 51 52% 27 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dustin Poirier 0 33 of 56 58% 33 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Justin Gaethje 0 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dustin Poirier 1 8 of 10 80% 8 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Justin Gaethje 27 of 52 51% 21 of 46 4 of 4 2 of 2 25 of 49 2 of 3 0 of 0
Dustin Poirier 41 of 66 62% 23 of 48 7 of 7 11 of 11 38 of 63 2 of 2 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Justin Gaethje 27 of 51 52% 21 of 45 4 of 4 2 of 2 25 of 48 2 of 3 0 of 0
Dustin Poirier 33 of 56 58% 18 of 41 5 of 5 10 of 10 31 of 54 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Justin Gaethje 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dustin Poirier 8 of 10 80% 5 of 7 2 of 2 1 of 1 7 of 9 0 of 0 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 23, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Dustin Poirier

Angelo picks Dustin Poirier, expecting a similar fight to their first meeting but without a finish. He believes Poirier's technical striking and fight IQ will outpoint Gaethje over five rounds. He notes that both have evolved at the same pace, but if Gaethje uses wrestling, it could change things. He is excited for the fight but not betting on it.

"I think it's gonna be more the same here Justin is tough he's dangerous Poirier is going to be Technical and I think he's going to out point for the win just like he did last time I don't think …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jul 24, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Dustin Poirier

Big Brady picks Dustin Poirier to win by late third-round finish. He references the first fight where Poirier landed 142 head strikes and broke Gaethje in the fourth round. He trusts Poirier's durability (only two KO losses in 36 fights) and volume, and expects damage to accumulate. However, he is not confident, acknowledging Gaethje's improvements and power. He calls it a toss-up but leans Poirier.

late third round finish
"I'm gonna take Dustin for you to finish Justin gaichi late third round here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 26, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Dustin Poirier

Cody picks Poirier based on the first fight where Poirier adjusted after leg kicks and knocked Gaethje out. He notes Poirier's training partners at ATT (Chris Duncan, Grant Dawson) have had career-best performances recently, suggesting good camp. He acknowledges Gaethje's leg kicks and durability but believes Poirier's boxing and ability to weather the storm give him the edge. He does not plan to bet pre-fight.

"I'm gonna side with Dustin Poirier but like this is this fight you know we've already seen it it already kind of plays out like absolute chaos"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jul 25, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Dustin Poirier

James picks Poirier, trusting his boxing accuracy, durability in wars, and ability to adjust to leg kicks. He notes Gaethje has improved technically but still gets hit and has been finished in wars before. He expects a war that goes into championship rounds, with Poirier's dog and cardio giving him the edge.

over 2.5 rounds (implied)
"I'm picking Dustin in this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Dustin Poirier

Poirier's precision striking and combinations will hurt Gaethje eventually and put him away. The fight doesn't go to decision is the spot I lean into most. Poirier by knockout, probably in the fourth or fifth round. Gaethje's leg kicks were effective in the first fight but Poirier's hands will find the big shot again.

fight doesn't go to decision
"I'm leaning Dustin Poirier, leaning fight doesn't go to decision like I said as my favorite prediction for this matchup give me Poirier by knockout probably once again and the fourth possibly even fifth round of this fight"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jul 26, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Justin Gaethje

Paul leans Gaethje due to plus money and Gaethje's proven ability to break opponents down in later rounds, referencing the Fiziev fight where Gaethje faded Fiziev in the third. He questions Poirier's durability and willingness to take damage at 34, noting Poirier's recent fights have been early finishes or high-damage affairs. He also highlights Gaethje's camp in Colorado producing good results. He calls it a 'dog or pass' and prefers the plus money ticket.

"I'm gonna end up going with just engaging fair enough"
WIN vs Rafael Fiziev
Decision (majority) (29–28, 29–28, 28–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · Mar 18, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Justin Gaethje 0 103 of 171 60% 106 of 174 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:05
Rafael Fiziev 0 97 of 169 57% 97 of 169 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Justin Gaethje 0 23 of 36 63% 23 of 36 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Rafael Fiziev 0 27 of 50 54% 27 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Justin Gaethje 0 27 of 48 56% 29 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Rafael Fiziev 0 32 of 49 65% 32 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Justin Gaethje 0 53 of 87 60% 54 of 88 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:05
Rafael Fiziev 0 38 of 70 54% 38 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Justin Gaethje 103 of 171 60% 81 of 142 14 of 15 8 of 14 84 of 147 19 of 24 0 of 0
Rafael Fiziev 97 of 169 57% 38 of 100 52 of 61 7 of 8 81 of 151 16 of 18 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Justin Gaethje 23 of 36 63% 11 of 21 7 of 8 5 of 7 20 of 33 3 of 3 0 of 0
Rafael Fiziev 27 of 50 54% 11 of 29 15 of 19 1 of 2 25 of 48 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Justin Gaethje 27 of 48 56% 22 of 41 3 of 3 2 of 4 23 of 44 4 of 4 0 of 0
Rafael Fiziev 32 of 49 65% 12 of 27 18 of 20 2 of 2 27 of 43 5 of 6 0 of 0
3 Justin Gaethje 53 of 87 60% 48 of 80 4 of 4 1 of 3 41 of 70 12 of 17 0 of 0
Rafael Fiziev 38 of 70 54% 15 of 44 19 of 22 4 of 4 29 of 60 9 of 10 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Justin Gaethje vs. Rafael Fiziev
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Fiziev (-148), Gaethje (+124)

Round 1
It might not be the fight some were hoping to see, but if their first rumble was any indication, Gaethje (25-5, 8-5 UFC) vs. Fiziev (12-3, 6-3 UFC) 2 should be crackerjack material. Due to the late notice of this lightweight rematch, the two will be scheduled for three five-minute rounds instead of 5x5 like when Gaethje was planning on facing Dan Hooker. In a contest that could easily headline any Fight Night offering out there, these two strikers plan on picking right where they left off. Referee Jason Herzog has donned his hard hat to protect from any errant blows once these two mighty gladiators start swinging. There is a sign of respect before the anticipated brawl, as the men high-five in the center of the cage. Immediate chants of “USA” in support of Gaethje drown out any other audio in the building, and they die down as the fighters do not commit to much. When Gaethje lands his first full-throated strike, Fiziev tackles him to the canvas with a surprise takedown. Gaethje scrambles to get out of the precarious predicament, and Fiziev quickly tries for another level change. The man from Kazakhstan successfully puts Gaethje down again, where he winds up sitting in an inverted triangle choke position dropping down elbows. Gaethje calmly remains in the position until exploding out, and he resets in the center of the cage and takes a right hand over the top. Fiziev jabs his foe in the stomach and then comes up top with another, only for Gaethje to walk him down and uppercut him in the jaw. Gaethje wings a right hand that lands at the end of it, and it is one-and-done as he slowly creeps forward towards his adversary. Fiziev pushes his foe back with a jab to the chest and a leg kick, and his jab keeps Gaethje from engaging fully. Gaethje swings his way in, and Fiziev greets him with a knee and a tie-up. Fiziev rips another two knees to the body, and Gaethje strikes back and swings a right hand up top. Fiziev targets the body with a kick and stings him with a left hand, and he goes after another audible body kick. Gaethje closes in on him as if he wants to take the fight down, but Fiziev’s balance holds up as he knees Gaethje in the ribcage. Gaethje slashes with an elbow up close and forces a break, and he unloads a right hand square on Fiziev’s eye socket. Fiziev kicks, and he recoils it awkwardly. Gaethje shoots for a takedown, and when it fails, he catches Fiziev with a pair of punches. Gaethje goes wide with a kick, and Fiziev sneaks in a left right before the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Fiziev
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Fiziev
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Fiziev

Round 2
The lightweights touch gloves to get back to it, and Gaethje leads the dance with two inaccurate hooks. Gaethje ducks and lashes out with a right and a left, staying in Fiziev’s face until Fiziev partially lands a groin kick. Herzog calls time, and Gaethje takes a little more than 15 seconds before he’s good to go again. Fiziev lunges with a left hand, and his right that follows scores effectively. Gaethje dings him with two hooks, and he absorbs a leg kick before he can back out. “The Highlight” come up short on most of his swings, but he does clip the striking coach with a left hook. Fiziev considers a takedown, bailing on it and taking a few punches on the way out. Fiziev lands a couple in the pocket, but he wants to get out of the brawl and into his preferred technical range. Fiziev looses a body kick and a left to the ribs, and he waves Fiziev on for more as he walks him down. Gaethje slips and comes up top with a vicious overhand right, and he absorbs a body kick and has a head kick skim his dome. Gaethje shakes it off, asks for more and puts his hands on Fiziev’s face. Fiziev misses with a massive right hand, and he kicks low and is checked. Fiziev steps in with a knee to the torso, and Gaethje gives him a clean uppercut to the body and a right hand to break up the brief clinch. Gaethje intercepts his foe with a short left, and he ducks into an uppercut. Fiziev times a perfect knee when Gaethje ducks, and Gaethje slips a few punches and blasts Fiziev with a brutal uppercut that knocks him clean off his feet. Gaethje pounces to try to finish the job, smothering Fiziev when Fiziev turns to his knees and starts beating on his side. Fiziev grits his teeth and works to his feet, but Gaethje drills him with a right hand on the way. Fiziev swings a head kick that bangs into the raised guard, and he leans back to watch a Gaethje head kick pass him by. The tense, exciting round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje

Round 3
There is a final high-five to open the final stanza, and Gaethje is quick to engage and swat his left hand. Gaethje looks for his uppercut, and it just grazes the beard. Fiziev backs off to unload a spinning wheel kick that bangs into Gaethje’s chin, and Gaethje wipes his nose and paws out a left hand. Fiziev chops at the lead leg, and Gaethje unloads three successive uppercut right hands that catch Fiziev cleanly. Fiziev stands firm in the pocket and cracks Gaethje with a left hand, and Gaethje waves him on. Fiziev whips kick after kick to the body, with Gaethje calling him on every time. Fiziev kicks him upside the head, and Gaethje drills him with an uppercut on the way out. Gaethje trips and stumbles but gathers himself, tying Fiziev up and clipping him with a right hand. Fiziev blasts him with punches and knees to the body, while Gaethje punches him in the head time and time again. One fierce right hand from Gaethje lumps up Fiziev’s left eye in a hurry, and the two get in the clinch and practiced muay thai with ferocious knees. Gaethje breaks and swings a sneaky head kick up top, catching Fiziev in the side of the head leaned over. Gaethje pushes his foe against the wall and delivers three crisp uppercuts on the jaw, and he takes a step back and slips. Gaethje pours it on with power punches, and he uppercuts Fiziev a few more times when they are tied up. Fiziev knees Gaethje in the belly any time they clinch, and Gaethje scores the right hand frequently when breaking. Gaethje strings a jab and an uppercut into a takedown effort, where he pushes Fiziev to the wire but does not ground him. Gaethje imposes his pressure and works the body, and Fiziev knees him back up close. When Fiziev tries to escape, Gaethje catches him on the way out. Fiziev sits on two punches and a high kick, and Gaethje laughs it off and kicks Fiziev in the face. Gaethje unloads a swarm of wild hooks, rocking Fiziev and hurting him badly. Fiziev steels himself and knees Gaethje, and the horn sounds to conclude the dramatic lightweight tilt. What a fight, living up to the hype about as much as it can.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje (29-28 Gaethje)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje (29-28 Gaethje)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje (29-28 Gaethje)

The Official Result
Justin Gaethje def. Rafael Fiziev via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

Angelo is confident in Fiziev because he is the most technical striker in the division and Gaethje struggles with technical strikers. He notes Fiziev has phenomenal takedown defense and has defended takedowns from elite grapplers. He thinks Gaethje's power is always a threat but Fiziev should outclass him on the feet.

"I think physique wins this fight I think he's uh someone of an easy pick here because stylistically Justin gagey struggles with technical Strikers."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

Big Brady picks Fiziev, citing his technical striking and youth. He questions Gaethje's durability due to accumulated damage and notes Gaethje looked tired in the Oliveira fight. He believes Fiziev can knock Gaethje out, predicting a second-round KO. He expects a war but trusts Fiziev's cardio and skills.

"I like physia by knockout I think he's Gonna Knock Out Just engage you at some point in this fight"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

Cody picks Fiziev, citing Gaethje's accumulated damage and declining durability. He notes Gaethje's reckless style leaves him open to counters, and Fiziev's technical striking and ability to intercept shots will be key. He mentions Gaethje's wrestling is an option but he chooses not to use it. He doesn't love the moneyline but sees Fiziev as the cleaner striker. He has no strong prop lean but says the pick is Fiziev.

"I will go with Raphael physique don't have a prop on it as much as I would like to say physique by decision... the pick would be fizzy"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2023 (fight day)
Rafael Fiziev

Connor picks Fiziev because Gaethje has become a back-foot counter puncher who no longer pressures. He notes that Gaethje's new approach makes him vulnerable to fighters who can draw out his counters and come back with combinations, as Eddie Alvarez and Dustin Poirier did. Fiziev is a fast, technical striker with good body work and defensive responsibility. Connor thinks Fiziev's ability to slip and counter will be key, and that Gaethje's lack of subtle adjustments will hurt him. He also notes that Fiziev's kicking game and creativity will give Gaethje trouble.

Gaethje opened +235, currently +187; Fiziev opened -275, currently -232
"I think physique is a smart enough fighter to put a lot of bodywork in even if he just does his normal amount, it will take its toll."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

Jacob is a big fan of Fiziev and thinks he is the best striker in the UFC regardless of weight class. He notes Fiziev knocked out his former striking coach Brad Riddell. He thinks Fiziev will expose Gaethje's striking as high school level with precise counters. He expects a dominant win.

"I think he's the best striker in the UFC currently regardless of weight class he's going to show it off Saturday and get a dominant win."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

Fiziev is a technical Muay Thai striker with good defense and cardio, while Gaethje is a brawler who may be slowing down at 34. Fiziev's technical advantage should allow him to counter Gaethje's wild hooks and leg kicks, leading to a knockout. Gaethje's durability is a concern, and Fiziev is the younger, hungrier fighter.

"I think the technical advantages that physiev has in this matchup is going to open up a tremendous amount of knockout opportunities for him"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

Paul echoes Cody's sentiment, picking Fiziev as the better striker. He notes Fiziev's takedown defense was impressive against dos Anjos, and Gaethje is unlikely to wrestle. He acknowledges Gaethje's power and volume make him live, but thinks Fiziev's technical edge wins out. He says minus 225 is about right and he won't bet it, but Fiziev is the pick.

"I'm picking physiv I think he's the better overall Striker... minus 225 I think the books have this vote right like gaichi's 100 live"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

The MMA Guru picks Rafael Fiziev to win by TKO, calling it a terrible matchup for Gaethje. He notes Fiziev is a kickboxer who doesn't have to worry about takedowns, allowing him to focus on striking. Gaethje's weaknesses include leg kicks, body shots, and a high guard that leaves his body open. Fiziev has the best body shots in the division and will chop the legs, rip the body, and eventually land a body-head combo for a KO. He also mentions Gaethje's accumulated damage and recent KO loss as factors.

Fiziev wins by TKO (body-head combo)
"terrible matchup for Gucci I'm going with physiev by TKO"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2023 (fight day)
Rafael Fiziev

Zane also picks Fiziev, citing Gaethje's increasing unwillingness to pressure. He notes that Gaethje has struggled against consistent technical strikers who are not easily breakable, like Poirier and Alvarez. Fiziev is a fast, powerful kicker who can work at range and in the pocket. Zane thinks Fiziev's defense and combination punching will be effective, and that Gaethje's habit of overcommitting on counters will leave him off-balance. He also mentions that Fiziev's body work could slow Gaethje down, and that this is a good matchup for Fiziev at the right time.

Gaethje opened +235, currently +187; Fiziev opened -275, currently -232
"The increasing unwillingness to pressure from Gachie is a major concern."
Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 3:22 · UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · May 07, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Charles Oliveira 1 30 of 47 63% 33 of 52 0 of 1 0% 2 0 0:39
Justin Gaethje 1 21 of 33 63% 21 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Charles Oliveira 1 30 of 47 63% 33 of 52 0 of 1 0% 2 0 0:39
Justin Gaethje 1 21 of 33 63% 21 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Charles Oliveira 30 of 47 63% 18 of 32 11 of 13 1 of 2 20 of 34 8 of 10 2 of 3
Justin Gaethje 21 of 33 63% 13 of 22 3 of 3 5 of 8 15 of 26 6 of 7 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Charles Oliveira 30 of 47 63% 18 of 32 11 of 13 1 of 2 20 of 34 8 of 10 2 of 3
Justin Gaethje 21 of 33 63% 13 of 22 3 of 3 5 of 8 15 of 26 6 of 7 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
UFC Lightweight Title Fight: Charles Oliveira (155.5: Missed Weight) vs. Justin Gaethje
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Oliveira (-165), Gaethje (+145)

Round 1
For the first time in UFC history, a defending champion missed weight, when
Oliveira
(32-8, 1 NC; 20-8, 1 NC UFC) could not reach the lightweight championship limit and hit the scales at 155.5 pounds. As a result, the title has been stripped from the Brazilian, and only
Gaethje
(23-3, 6-3 UFC) is eligible to win it. Should Oliveira get his hand raised, he will serve as the number one contender and will fight for the vacant belt at a later date. Many had already circled this matchup on their calendar as must-see TV given the excitement quotient that each provides, and the weigh-in drama added yet another layer of intrigue to the pairing. Getting things started will be referee Marc Goddard, who brings them to the center of the cage, issues the formalities and instructs the fighters to touch gloves. They do. With that, the fight is on, and buckle up. The first strike comes in 10 seconds with a leg kick, and they both crack one another with right hands to hurt one another. Oliveira stings him again in the clinch, and Gaethje backs off and lets fly another leg kick. Gaethje knocks the ex-champ clean off his feet, and he stands back to let Oliveira stand back up. When the Brazilian gets back up, Gaethje chops down his lead leg and nails him with a right hand that drops Oliveira again. Oliveira is swollen and bleeding from multiple places on the head, and Oliveira works his way back up to his feet. Gaethje gathers himself and absorbs a flush knee to the body, while Gaethje slings a right hand for all his worth. Gaethje gets stung and fights back, and Oliveira tries for a standing guillotine but gets pushed off. Oliveira closes the distance, jumps guard with a guillotine, and Gaethje shrugs him off and powers out of the position. They both stand back up, and Oliveira clips the challenger with a right hand. Oliveira leaps in the air with a front kick, and chants for “USA” rain down for the Arizona native. Gaethje blocks a knee, gets blasted with a right hand, and the right sends “The Highlight” crashing to the mat in big trouble. Oliveira gives chase, and he jumps on to snatch up the back and latch on to a choke. Gaethje bucks him off, fights off an armbar setup and rolls to his knees. The mighty move is for naught, as he gets yanked back down by Oliveira. This time, "Do Bronx" has Gaethje’s back on lock, and he hunts for a rear-naked choke. The arm slides beneath Gaethje’s chin, and Gaethje is in serious danger now and struggling to fight the grip. As Gaethje gasps for breath, he decides to tap out instead of going out like when he fought Khabib Nurmagomedov, and Oliveira has done it. He has survived the toughest that Gaethje could offer, suffering two knockdowns, coming back to drop Gaethje and land the submission in remarkable fashion. The UFC lightweight title is officially still vacant, with Oliveira as the current number one contender, and he will face an undetermined challenger in the future. With any luck, it will be a top active fighter like Islam Makhachev, and not a famous but undeserving person on a losing streak to slot in with hopes of selling pay-per-views. Oliveira declares that the lightweight champion does have a name, and his name is Charles Oliveira. Whoever Oliveira fights next, that man will truly have his hands full, as Oliveira is a force to be reckoned with. When he competes again for his old belt, we will be there for it. We hope you are too.

The Official Result
Charles Oliveira def. Justin Gaethje R1 3:22 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2022 (7 days before fight)
Justin Gaethje

Angelo picks Justin Gaethje, believing his volume and chin will overwhelm Oliveira. He argues that Oliveira's submissions are off the table because Gaethje won't go to the ground, and that Gaethje's forward pressure will wear Oliveira down. He acknowledges Oliveira's technical striking but thinks Gaethje's style is a bad matchup for him.

"justin gagey is the pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 2, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Charles Oliveira

Big Brady picks Charles Oliveira to win by second-round submission. He believes Oliveira will weather Gaethje's early storm, pressure him against the cage, and drag the fight to the mat where Oliveira's elite BJJ will take over. He notes that Gaethje has shown vulnerability to wrestling, as seen in the Khabib fight, and that Oliveira has improved his cardio and durability, surviving early adversity against Chandler and Poirier. Brady thinks the striking is competitive but that Oliveira has more paths to victory, while Gaethje's main path is a first-round knockout.

second round submission
"I'm going to say second round submission for Charles Oliveira I think he weathers that early storm I think he mixed it up to the body I think he makes gaichi work"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked May 4, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Charles Oliveira

Cody leans towards Charles Oliveira but is hesitant due to the -165 price tag. He notes that Oliveira has been hurt in recent fights (by Chandler and Poirier) but has shown heart to come back. Cody believes Gaethje's wild, reckless style creates openings for Oliveira's takedowns and submissions. He points out Gaethje's takedown defense is only 77% and that Oliveira took down Tony Ferguson and Dustin Poirier easily. However, Cody is concerned about Gaethje's cardio and durability, and plans to hedge if he gets far into the parlay.

"i do have charles oliveira i think the fight eventually hits the ground and when it does i mean charles oliveira on top of his gonna be a beast"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked May 5, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Charles Oliveira

Daniel Levi picks Charles Oliveira but is very hesitant, acknowledging that he sees a different outcome every time these two fight. He notes Oliveira's offensive brilliance and improved mental fortitude, but worries about his defensive liabilities, especially against Gaethje's leg kicks and power. He says he leans with the favorite because Oliveira has more paths to victory, but he is not betting the fight himself. He respects the value on Gaethje at plus 150 odds and understands why anyone would take the dog.

Daniel mentions he is not betting this fight, but notes the value on Gaethje at +150. He does not place a bet himself.
"I don't [__] know and usually when I don't know I take the dog but I kind of lean with the favorite here because I think he's got more paths to victory."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 6, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Charles Oliveira

The host picks Charles Oliveira to win, likely by submission in the second round. He highlights Oliveira's finishing ability and record 15 UFC submission wins. He expects Oliveira to check leg kicks, stun Gaethje, and take the fight to the ground. He prefers betting under 2.5 rounds at -150, noting that only one of Oliveira's last 16 fights went over 2.5. He acknowledges Gaethje's power and durability but believes Oliveira's adversity-fighting has improved. He is not betting Oliveira moneyline due to the line being too wide.

under 2.5 rounds -150; under 3.5 rounds -220
"i'm going charles i'm thinking club and sub probably second round"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 4, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Charles Oliveira

Paul picks Charles Oliveira, believing he will eventually find his spot and get a submission. He notes that Oliveira doesn't necessarily need a takedown, but if he gets it to the ground, his BJJ is unmatched. Paul prefers the under 2.5 rounds at -145, expecting either Gaethje to melt Oliveira early or Oliveira to grab a submission. He acknowledges Gaethje's leg kicks and toughness but trusts Oliveira's finishing ability.

under 2.5 rounds at -145
"i think doe bronx eventually is going to find his spot he's going to find his neck and uh and get the job done"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 2, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Charles Oliveira

The MMA Guru picks Charles Oliveira, citing Gaethje's lack of jiu-jitsu awareness as seen against Khabib. He believes Oliveira will use a rangier game, mixing in kicks and takedowns, and eventually take Gaethje's back and choke him out in the first round. He notes Gaethje may be overthinking due to the title fight pressure and the threat of the takedown. He predicts a standing rear-naked choke.

Oliveira by standing rear-naked choke in round one
"oliveira is going to go out there play a much rangier game he'll then educate a brawl or sort of uh accept a brawl happening we've just engaged here they'll scrap they'll scrap blast double leg gates you'll stuff it …"
Expert Picks (1)
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked Jun 3, 2026 (11 days before fight)
Ilia Topuria

AJ believes Topuria's hands are too precise and his boxing is too elite for Gaethje. He mentions that Gaethje's calf kicks and forward pressure give him a chance, but ultimately Topuria's striking is different and he expects Topuria to get the win.

"I think Tapori is a problem... I think Tapora's striking is different."