vs
-162 +150
UFC Freedom 250 · Jun 14, 2026 · Featherweight · Scheduled
Prev Fight UFC Freedom 250
Age 31
Height 5' 11"
Reach 72.0"
Weight 145 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 34
Height 6' 0"
Reach 75.0"
Weight 145 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Career Averages - Diego Lopes
3.83 SLpM
47.0% Str. Acc.
4.56 SApM
45.0% Str. Def.
0.88 TD Avg
50.0% TD Acc.
68.0% TD Def.
1.4 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Steve Garcia
5.39 SLpM
49.0% Str. Acc.
2.12 SApM
59.0% Str. Def.
0.86 TD Avg
40.0% TD Acc.
88.0% TD Def.
0.4 Sub. Avg
Diego Lopes
Moneyline
Pinnacle -162
KO/TKO
FanDuel +260
Submission
FanDuel +420
Decision
BetRivers +370
Steve Garcia
Moneyline
BetOnline +150
KO/TKO
BetRivers +295
Submission
FanDuel +3000
Decision
FanDuel +550
Diego Lopes - Fight History
SCHED vs Steve Garcia
UFC Freedom 250 · Jun 14, 2026
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Lean picked Jun 3, 2026 (11 days before fight)
Steve Garcia

AJ is leaning towards Steve Garcia, citing Garcia's terrifying hands and cardio to go three hard rounds. He thinks Garcia could outstrike Lopes and notes that Lopes is not a grapple smotherer, making it hard for him to control Garcia. He also mentions Garcia's chin and finishing ability.

"I think I'm gonna end up going Steve Garcia. I won't lie to you guys."
Decision R5 5:00 · UFC 325 · Feb 01, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alexander Volkanovski 0 98 of 160 61% 112 of 178 2 of 7 28% 1 0 2:49
Diego Lopes 0 70 of 158 44% 74 of 162 2 of 5 40% 0 0 1:50
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alexander Volkanovski 0 12 of 27 44% 17 of 32 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:27
Diego Lopes 0 12 of 28 42% 12 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Alexander Volkanovski 0 19 of 30 63% 20 of 33 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Diego Lopes 0 16 of 34 47% 19 of 37 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:39
3 Alexander Volkanovski 0 21 of 35 60% 21 of 35 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Diego Lopes 0 17 of 38 44% 17 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Alexander Volkanovski 0 25 of 44 56% 25 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Diego Lopes 0 22 of 48 45% 22 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Alexander Volkanovski 0 21 of 24 87% 29 of 34 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:22
Diego Lopes 0 3 of 10 30% 4 of 11 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:11
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alexander Volkanovski 98 of 160 61% 72 of 118 3 of 6 23 of 36 88 of 149 3 of 4 7 of 7
Diego Lopes 70 of 158 44% 33 of 98 17 of 33 20 of 27 66 of 152 3 of 4 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alexander Volkanovski 12 of 27 44% 5 of 12 0 of 1 7 of 14 12 of 26 0 of 1 0 of 0
Diego Lopes 12 of 28 42% 3 of 15 2 of 5 7 of 8 12 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Alexander Volkanovski 19 of 30 63% 13 of 20 0 of 2 6 of 8 19 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
Diego Lopes 16 of 34 47% 9 of 23 3 of 5 4 of 6 15 of 33 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Alexander Volkanovski 21 of 35 60% 21 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 2 21 of 35 0 of 0 0 of 0
Diego Lopes 17 of 38 44% 8 of 24 5 of 8 4 of 6 15 of 36 2 of 2 0 of 0
4 Alexander Volkanovski 25 of 44 56% 15 of 33 2 of 2 8 of 9 25 of 44 0 of 0 0 of 0
Diego Lopes 22 of 48 45% 10 of 29 7 of 13 5 of 6 22 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Alexander Volkanovski 21 of 24 87% 18 of 20 1 of 1 2 of 3 11 of 14 3 of 3 7 of 7
Diego Lopes 3 of 10 30% 3 of 7 0 of 2 0 of 1 2 of 7 0 of 1 1 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 25, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

Angelo picks Volkanovski to win the rematch, citing his insane cardio, high fight IQ, and ability to game plan. He believes Volkanovski will wrestle more this time to take away Diego's distance, where he landed his best shots. Angelo acknowledges Diego's dangerous grappling and striking, and notes that Diego was close to finishing Volkanovski in the first fight. He suggests a prop bet on Diego Lopes winning inside the distance, as you get a refund if he doesn't and get paid if he does.

Diego Lopes wins inside the distance (refund if not)
"The bet has always and will always be Diego Lopez wins inside the distance because you get a refund if he doesn't and you get paid if he does."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jan 25, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Diego Lopes

Big Brady leans toward Diego Lopes for the upset, citing that Lopes needs to be more aggressive and make it a 'car crash' to touch Volkanovski's chin, which has been cracked. He notes Lopes dropped Volkanovski in the first fight and started turning it on in the later rounds. However, he acknowledges Volkanovski wins a decision 90% of the time if it goes the distance, so Lopes must finish. Brady predicts a second-round knockout for Lopes.

Lopes by KO in round 2
"I'm going to lean Lopez here. I'm going to say he does touch the chin. ... Give me Lopez here by second round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 28, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

Cody believes Volkanovski will win a decision similar to the first fight, citing his superior striking volume and takedown defense. He notes that Volkanovski landed 158 significant strikes in the first fight and that Lopes' ground game was ineffective. He acknowledges Volkanovski's age and potential decline but sees no evidence of regression yet. He picks Volkanovski by decision.

Volkanovski by decision +170
"I still think Vulcanoski does enough to get the job done so one I do have Vulk but two I don't think he knocks out Lopez and I don't think he's miss Lopez so it's a vulk by decision play …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Jan 29, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Diego Lopes

Connor picks Diego Lopes because he believes that Volkanovski is older and more vulnerable, and that Lopes has a puncher's chance that becomes more likely the more times they fight. He notes that Lopes is insanely fast and durable, and that Volkanovski's defensive decisions have worsened. However, he acknowledges that Volkanovski is still the more technical fighter and that Lopes could easily lose.

Odds: Lopes +124, Volkanovski -145. Connor mentions the odds are a 'loaded coin' and that Lopes is bound to win one of these matchups eventually.
"I'm going to pick him at this point, just because I think that the UFC is literally like, if he loses, they're literally going to do it again."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2026 (17 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

Daniel Vreeland picks Volkanovski to outclass Lopes again, citing his superior fight IQ, feinting game, and all-around skills. He notes that Lopes needs a finish to win, as he has a negative record in decisions, but Volkanovski is tough to put away and has already proven he can handle Lopes' best shots. Vreeland acknowledges Lopes' dangerous finishing ability but believes Volkanovski's adjustments and experience will prevail.

"I think Vulk's going to pick this man apart. I really do."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jan 25, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Diego Lopes

James picks Diego Lopes to win the rematch, citing Lopes' momentum from his KO of Jean Silva, improved camp, and admission of ego issues in the first fight. He believes Lopes will push a higher pace and force pocket exchanges where he can land a knockout. James notes Volkanovski's age and potential decline, and that the close odds (Volk -155) suggest the fight is a toss-up. He also mentions Lopes' durability and submission threat.

"I'm actually going to pick Diego Lopez for this one. I'm going to pick him for the upset."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 27, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

Volkanovski's fight IQ and tactical approach will allow him to execute a game plan similar to their first fight: jab, leg kick, takedowns to disrupt Lopes' rhythm. He out-struck Lopes 158 to 63 in their first bout, landing at 61% in rounds three and five. Lopes may be more aggressive this time, but Volkanovski's submission defense and ability to stick and move should neutralize that. The host notes that if Lopes wins, it likely comes by knockout, but he favors the better overall fighter. He suggests waiting for better odds on Volkanovski during fight week.

Volkanovski by decision likely; Lopes by knockout if he wins; wait for better odds on Volkanovski
"I'm going to go Alexander Vulcganowski and still featherweight champion Mr. Vulcanowski."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 28, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

Paul argues that Volkanovski clearly won the first fight 4-1 and that the line is too close given that result. He acknowledges Lopes' improvements and Volkanovski's age but believes the champion's skills and experience will prevail. He sees a similar outcome, possibly a 48-47 decision.

"I just watched this fight. It was fairly decisive going one way."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 31, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Diego Lopes

The Guru picks Diego Lopes by TKO in round two, citing his performance in the first fight where he dropped Volkanovski. He believes Volkanovski's age, layoff, and lack of motivation will be factors, while Lopes has improved and has a lottery ticket mentality. He expects Lopes to finish him this time.

TKO in round two
"I'm going to go with Diego Lopez to put away Alexander Vulcganowski by TKO in this fight."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 29, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

Zane picks Volkanovski, arguing that Lopez has atrocious defense and poor footwork, and that Volkanovski will walk him into jabs and overhand rights. He notes that Lopez might win with a puncher's chance due to his durability and speed, but believes Volkanovski's technical superiority will prevail. He also points out that Lopez is an opportunist who starts hot but fades if he doesn't get an early finish.

Odds: Volkanovski -145, Lopes +124. Zane mentions the odds but does not make a betting recommendation.
"Lopez is not a good game planner. He has atrocious defense and poor footwork. Volkanovski is going to walk him into jabs and overhand rights."
WIN vs Jean Silva
KO R2 4:48 · UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · Sep 13, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Diego Lopes 1 74 of 135 54% 86 of 154 3 of 4 75% 0 0 2:40
Jean Silva 0 43 of 91 47% 43 of 91 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Diego Lopes 0 43 of 77 55% 50 of 86 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:58
Jean Silva 0 10 of 20 50% 10 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:03
2 Diego Lopes 1 31 of 58 53% 36 of 68 2 of 3 66% 0 0 0:42
Jean Silva 0 33 of 71 46% 33 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Diego Lopes 74 of 135 54% 63 of 118 1 of 1 10 of 16 31 of 65 1 of 2 42 of 68
Jean Silva 43 of 91 47% 26 of 67 10 of 17 7 of 7 42 of 90 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Diego Lopes 43 of 77 55% 36 of 67 0 of 0 7 of 10 14 of 24 0 of 0 29 of 53
Jean Silva 10 of 20 50% 5 of 11 2 of 6 3 of 3 10 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Diego Lopes 31 of 58 53% 27 of 51 1 of 1 3 of 6 17 of 41 1 of 2 13 of 15
Jean Silva 33 of 71 46% 21 of 56 8 of 11 4 of 4 32 of 70 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Diego Lopes vs. Jean Silva
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Silva (-270); Lopes (+220)

Round 1
Mike Beltran is the referee. Lopes alnds an outside leg kick. Silva with a front kick close to Lopes’ chin. Lopes is attacking with low kicks. Another front kick up high for Silva, just missing the mark. Lopes with another low kick. Silva working the front kick. Silva throws a couple leg kicks of his own. Lopes gets a takedown to counters a Silva spinning back kick. Lopes wants to take the back. Silva gives up full mount instead. Silva wants to buck him off. Lopes cuts his foe with a downward elbow. He smiles and drops more elbows. Lopes alternates between elbows and punches and Silva gives up his back. Silva is in defensive mode. More elbows and punches for Lopes, who isn’t giving up mount. Lopes drops elbows on the smiling mug of Silva. He switches to punches and Silva rolls. Lopes continues the beating, but finally Silva breaks free. He is bloodied but ready to get to work. Silva jabs and rocks Lopes with a snap kick to the chin. Lopes goes bck to the leg kick and Silva lands a jab. Lopes avoids the snap kick this time. Lopes pumps his jab and Silva lands a left hook to the body. Silva with a right. Silva wipes the blood off his head and smiles as the round concludes.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Lopes
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-8 Lopes
Mike Pendleton scores the round: 10-8 Lopes

Round 2
Silva comes out with a couple leg kicks. Silva with a right to the body. Silva steps in with a solid one-two. Lopes counters with a right during an exchange. Silva with a right hook and he smiles. Silva goes body-head, and he does it again. Lopes is eating heavy shots. That propels Lopes to fire back. Silva steps in with an elbow and he just misses a spinning back elbow. Lopes lands a calf kick and he advances. Silva rocks his foe with a counter right. Silva touches the chin of Lopes again, and now he’s opening up, landing punches in bunches. Silva is mixing in some elbows to his offense. They trade low kicks. Silva digs to the body, but Lopes counters with a right. A big right lands for Silva. Lopes is still in Silva’s face. Silva over extends and Lopes gets a takedown. He lands a series of rights from Silva’s back as he laces the right leg. Lopes slams Silva, but “Lord” rolls. Lopes is able to transition to side control during a scramble. Silva uses a single-leg to stand and he’s unloading now. They’re both trading heavy punches and a finish seems like it could be imminent. Silva kicks the body and is in pursuit of his opponent. A spinning elbow from Lopes — virutally the same one “Lord” has been using repeatedly — drops Silva near the fence.
The Fighting Nerds product is stunned, and Lopes tees off with ground-and-pound. Silva isn’t recovering, and the assault continues. Beltran has finally seen enough, and he waves off the fight to save a badly bloodied Silva.
In the aftermath of the stoppage, an upset Silva attempts to go after Lopes, but he’s held back by security. The slump for the Fighting Nerds continues, but there’s no shame in this defeat: This is a “Fight of the Year” candidate.

The Official Result
Diego Lopes def. Jean Silva via TKO (Spinning Back Elbow and Punches) R2 4:48
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 7, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Jean Silva

Angelo picks Jean Silva, calling him the fighting nerds' last hope. He says Silva is a powerful striker, loose, creative, and composed. He notes Diego Lopez has dangerous BJJ and power, but his technique goes out the window as the fight goes on, and he is too busy coaching others. He thinks Silva will beat the hell out of Lopez, and the odds reflect that accurately.

"I think Jean Silva beats the [__] out of Diego Lopez. It'll be a very fun fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 11, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jean Silva

Big Brady picks Silva because of his exceptional power and Lopes's poor striking defense. He notes Lopes has only two takedowns in the UFC and Silva has good takedown defense, so the fight stays standing. He predicts Silva knocks out Lopes, who has been knocked out twice before, in the third round.

Third round knockout
"I'm going to take Gene Silva to win this fight by third round knockout."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Sep 11, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jean Silva

Connor picks Jean Silva, emphasizing Silva's superior positioning and distance management, which he compares to Anderson Silva. He notes that Silva's natural feel for the fight and ability to remain unanxious will allow him to handle Lopes's pressure. Connor acknowledges Lopes's power and durability but believes Silva's style is better suited for an unstructured fight, where his innate skills shine.

Silva opened at -250, currently -230; Lopes opened at +210, currently +196. Connor says he's 'okay with that' and it 'probably shouldn't really be no wider.'
"I think my instinct is to pick Jean Silva here. The biggest reason is that his style opens him up to an evolution over each round."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jean Silva

The host believes people are realizing Lopes is not as good as he seemed. He expects Silva to dictate the pace, take the center, land big shots, break Lopes down, fend off takedowns, and eventually find a knockout, cementing himself as a top contender.

win by knockout
"Look for Jean Silva to dictate the pace from jump. take the center of the cage, land his big shots against Lopez, really start breaking Lopez down, fending off a few of the takedowns attempts that are inevitably going to …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Diego Lopes

The MMA Guru picks Diego Lopes, arguing that Jean Silva is being overhyped and that the 'Fighting Nerds' mystique has faded. He notes Lopes has championship experience, having gone five rounds with Volkanovski, and crashes well, which will trouble Silva. He believes Silva's loose, goofy style will be shut down when Lopes lands power. He predicts a second-round finish.

Round 2 finish
"I'm gonna go with Diego Lopez getting this one done. And I'm going to say he gets this one done by second round finish over Jean Silva."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Sep 11, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jean Silva

Zane picks Jean Silva, citing Silva's natural positioning and ability to evolve over rounds, which allows him to time opponents better as the fight progresses. He notes that Silva's lack of anxiety and tendency to stay composed under pressure will be key against Lopes's aggressive but unstructured style. Zane acknowledges Lopes's finishing ability and toughness but believes Silva's natural gifts and adaptability will prevail in an unstructured fight.

Silva opened at -250, currently -230; Lopes opened at +210, currently +196. Zane says he's 'okay with that' and it 'probably shouldn't really be no wider.'
"I think the long arc of this fight probably does favor Silva, but I can easily see opportunities for him to make big mistakes that cost him."
Decision R5 5:00 · UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · Apr 12, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alexander Volkanovski 0 158 of 259 61% 165 of 266 1 of 11 9% 0 0 1:18
Diego Lopes 1 63 of 194 32% 71 of 203 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alexander Volkanovski 0 27 of 44 61% 31 of 48 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:58
Diego Lopes 0 8 of 22 36% 11 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
2 Alexander Volkanovski 0 24 of 52 46% 27 of 55 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:20
Diego Lopes 1 16 of 33 48% 17 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
3 Alexander Volkanovski 0 25 of 45 55% 25 of 45 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Diego Lopes 0 9 of 37 24% 9 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Alexander Volkanovski 0 39 of 57 68% 39 of 57 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Diego Lopes 0 16 of 43 37% 16 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Alexander Volkanovski 0 43 of 61 70% 43 of 61 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Diego Lopes 0 14 of 59 23% 18 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alexander Volkanovski 158 of 259 61% 136 of 225 8 of 14 14 of 20 142 of 237 7 of 11 9 of 11
Diego Lopes 63 of 194 32% 49 of 171 7 of 13 7 of 10 59 of 185 3 of 8 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alexander Volkanovski 27 of 44 61% 21 of 34 2 of 4 4 of 6 14 of 27 4 of 6 9 of 11
Diego Lopes 8 of 22 36% 5 of 16 1 of 2 2 of 4 8 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Alexander Volkanovski 24 of 52 46% 18 of 42 0 of 3 6 of 7 24 of 52 0 of 0 0 of 0
Diego Lopes 16 of 33 48% 15 of 32 1 of 1 0 of 0 15 of 32 0 of 0 1 of 1
3 Alexander Volkanovski 25 of 45 55% 21 of 38 1 of 2 3 of 5 25 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
Diego Lopes 9 of 37 24% 7 of 33 1 of 3 1 of 1 9 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Alexander Volkanovski 39 of 57 68% 36 of 53 2 of 2 1 of 2 39 of 57 0 of 0 0 of 0
Diego Lopes 16 of 43 37% 13 of 37 2 of 5 1 of 1 14 of 39 2 of 4 0 of 0
5 Alexander Volkanovski 43 of 61 70% 40 of 58 3 of 3 0 of 0 40 of 56 3 of 5 0 of 0
Diego Lopes 14 of 59 23% 9 of 53 2 of 2 3 of 4 13 of 55 1 of 4 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
UFC Featherweight Title Fight: Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopes
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Volkanovski (-155), Lopes (+130)

Round 1
In the UFC 314 headliner in April 2025, Volkanovski (27-4, 14-3 UFC) took Lopes (27-7, 6-2 UFC) to task across 25 minutes, with the Brazilian claiming one round on two official scorecards when it all wrapped up. With promotional matchmakers seemingly out of ideas or options, the Lobo Gym MMA product only needed a single win to get another crack at gold, while it serves as an immediate rematch for the Aussie. No matter the thoughts on the pairing, it is here now, and fans should appreciate “The Great” for as long as we have him. Walking out to “Down Under” by Men at Work, he holds the arena in the palm of his hand. Referee Marc Goddard receives the final assignment today and brings the two 145ers to the center of the cage, issuing their instructions and setting them loose after their respectful fist bump. It’s all up to them now.
Volkanovski moves directly to the center of the cage, circling towards the power right hand of Lopes. Volkanovski lands first with a low kick, and Lopes answers back. Chants in favor of the Aussie boom through the building. Volkanovski stays light on his feet, never staying on one place, and he switches stances a few times and absorbs a kick to the liver. Lopes intercepts him with a low kick, and he takes one in response. Volkanovski connects with a hard low kick, and Lopes retaliates with a head kick that gets blocked. Volkanovski shoots, and Lopes tosses him aside and tags him with a right hand while Volkanovski resets. Lopes bounces on his heels and absorbs a low kick and one to the midsection, and neither man seems ready to fully commit after two minutes. Volkanovski loads up on a right hand, and he rushes at Lopes to toss out two more big right hands. The Aussie checks a kick, and he parries a jab.
Lopes constantly changes stances, firing off his high kick while in southpaw. Volkanovski kicks him on the inner calf, and he chips away on the other side before Lopes can get to him. Volkanovski gets in and out with his low kick, and Lopes tries and fails to counter him back. Volkanovski pecks out with a jab, and he shoots for a speedy double and presses Lopes to the wall. “The Great” clasps his hands and looks to elevate Lopes, and he releases his grip and starts slugging Lopes with his right hand. Lopes frames off with his knee, and he breaks off and gets sideswiped with a right hand. Volkanovski clips Lopes with a flush right hand, who shakes his head at him. Volkanovski connects with another right, and Lopes flashes a grin but cannot deny he got tagged. Lopes drills the champ with a stern body kick right before the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Volkanovski
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Volkanovski
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Volkanovski

Round 2
The fighters touch gloves to get started again, and this time, Lopes positions himself in the center of the cage right off the bat. Volkanovski measures with a jab out of range, and he leans back as a high kick soars past him. Volkanovski slips to the side when taking a kick, and he dings Lopes twice and has a kick bounce into the cup. Lopes does not cry foul, and they continue fighting. Volkanovski works both sides of the lead leg, and he jabs to keep Lopes busy. Lopes chambers and fires a leg kick to the back leg, and they whip additional leg kicks at one another. Lopes slowly pressures forward, scoring a low kick and crashing the pocket to sneak in a right hand.
Lopes charges in, and Volkanovski ducks away and gets off a left hand on the way. Lopes lands a hard leg kick and a right hand, and Volkanovski counters him as he takes a side step. Lopes flashes his own jab, forcing Volkanovski to rush him and start trading. Lopes hits him back, and he cuts Volkanovski’s right cheek. Volkanovski pays it no mind and rails Lopes with a ferocious right hand, and Lopes comfortably tanks a blow that would fell lesser men. Lopes draws Volkanovski into a brief slugfest, and he takes a few but manages to land at the end of his long right. Volkanovski bashes Lopes in the jaw with a one-two, and Lopes steels himself and races in for a takedown. Volkanovski jumps guard with a flying guillotine choke, and he falls to his back and laughs when Lopes and his slippery hair slide out of the submission. Volkanovski scrambles, and Lopes climbs on his back and wraps his arm around the chin. Lopes hangs on until the horn sounds, and the two high-five after 10 close minutes of combat.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Volkanovski
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Lopes
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Volkanovski

Round 3
Round 3 The athletes once more greet with a glove touch, and Lopes leads off with a chopping kick. As Volkanovski is moving and listening to his corner, Lopes wags his finger at them and laughs. Lopes strides forward behind an elbow, skimming it off the raised guard. Lopes jabs to the head and body, and he skirts away from a calf kick. Lopes goes to the body when Volkanovski aims high, and the Aussie checks a low kick that zips towards him. Volkanovski reestablishes his jab, peppering the challenger to open up a right hand. Lopes pops him with his own to make Volkanovski take a few steps back, and he absorbs a flush right hand up top. They clash together, and Lopes gets the better of the exchange with an elbow on the break.
Volkanovski sits down on two fierce right hands, stumbling Lopes and transitioning to a takedown. Lopes stops the first try, knees Volkanovski in the belly and stops a second subsequent effort. Volkanovski resets and kicks the lead leg to open up his right hand, and Lopes answers with a single kick to the ribcage. Lopes just misses a huge right hand, and he avoids a similar one as the champ smiles. Both of these two are having a blast in the cage together, and they are not afraid to show it. Volkanovski leads with his jab, constantly moving to not get pinned down by the larger man. Volkanovski races in with a right hand, and he stumbles possibly from taking a counter right but he might have thrown himself off-balance. The champ pops right back up, and he proceeds to slam his fists in the sides of Lopes’ melon. Lopes drives home a knee to the liver, and he takes a jab as the round concludes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Volkanovski
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Volkanovski
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Volkanovski

Round 4
The two have reached the championship rounds again, and it has been remarkably close. Volkanovski comfortably jabs out and tosses his leg kick to disrupt Lopes’ forward movement, and he turns his lead leg to check an oncoming kick. Lopes scores an inside thigh kick, and he aims another to the same spot. The Brazilian fakes a takedown and eats a right hand, but not before landing an inside low kick. Volkanovski chops at the front leg and doubles up on a jab, and he uses that jab to come over the top with an oddly timed right hand. Volkanovski parries the jabs and steps in with a knee to the body, and he slides back just out of range of the counter. Volkanovski sinks in a crisp right on the nose, and Lopes is stuck jabbing him. Volkanovski clubs him with a pair of hooks on either side of the head, and Lopes grits his teeth and doubles up on an outside leg kick.
The challenger is met with jabs, and when he tries to answer, he turns to avoid the worst of a right hand. Volkanovski snaps the head back with a jab, one so effective that Lopes nods at him as if to celebrate the strike. Chants for the champ rain down once more, as fans had been silent and one could hear a pin drop in the arena. Volkanovski busts Lopes in the chops with a blistering right hand, taking advantage of Lopes coming at him with his right. Volkanovski lets fly a body kick, and he goes low and bangs it into the cup. Volkanovski is upset by the foul and goes to apologize immediately, but Goddard gets between them and has the champ go to a neutral corner while Lopes recovers. Lopes is good to go after 35 seconds, and Volkanovski is full of apologies. Lopes accepts them, and he marches the champion down and lobs a head kick at him. Volkanovski dodges it and kicks low, and he evades a step-in elbow. Volkanovski sees right hands coming and disengages before taking them on the chin, and his jab is a masterclass and his follow-up right is money. Lopes draws him into a big exchange, and Lopes lands as much as Volkanovski does. Lopes falls over when missing on a head kick, and the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Volkanovski
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Volkanovski
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Volkanovski

Round 5
Five minutes remain in this match, one with scores that could range from 4-0 Volkanovski to 2-2. It could potentially be all up for grabs in this last round, and Volkanovski is quick to get right behind his jab again. The snappy jab has an extra impact as Lopes hair moves when he absorbs the blow, and he remains elusive and hard to pin down. Volkanovski shoots for a single, and Lopes answers with an arm-in guillotine choke. Volkanovski rolls through it and Lopes follows him upright by clinging to it, kneeing the champ in the head. Volkanovski drops his man with a right hand, and he chains a body lock and trip takedown into it the moment Lopes recovers. Lopes posts off his hands to get up, and Volkanovski holds on from behind and keeps to Lopes when Lopes spins. Lopes explodes and manages to take the champion to the floor, and during the scramble, he takes the back.
Volkanovski stands up, with a body triangle around his waist, and he promptly breaks the leg grip and calmly shucks Lopes off. Lopes transitions to a double, and Volkanovski hacks down with elbows before reversing the position and putting Lopes to the fence. Volkanovski trips Lopes up with his feet, and he swirls around to take Lopes’ back and drags the fight down again. Lopes hits a kimura to sweep him, and he chains it into an armbar. Volkanovski sits up and his arm is still trapped, so he keeps tightly pressed to the challenger rather than lean back to possibly straighten it. Volkanovski yanks his arm out of danger and sits on Lopes’ face, and he pumps his fist to the crowd with 30 seconds left while they go wild for him. Lopes tries for a Hail Mary leglock, and Volkanovski stands up and shrugs to Goddard when he does. Volkanovski lowers himself down, and he commences one final bombardment of elbows to punish Lopes. The audience is so loud, the fighters are lucky that Goddard knows when time is up because it is practically impossible to hear the final horn.
The fighters are happy that it’s over, after a combined 50 minutes of combat with one another. Barring something extreme, there does not need to be a third match between the two. As expected, Volkanovski has the belt wrapped around his waist, further defying the age curse that many imposed on him. The masses in the building practically blow the roof off when the victorious Aussie’s arm is raised. The defending champion is all smiles after facing a wrecking machine in Lopes, and he is proud to have his moment in Sydney in front of his home country faithful. “The Great” lauds his grit, determination and many other factors for his success to this date, and he is not ready to call it quite yet. There is no clear-cut contender at the moment, with the potential for Lerone Murphy and Movsar Evloev to establish that in London soon. He welcomes the challenge. When Volkanovski fights again, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Volkanovski (50-45 Volkanovski)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Volkanovski (49-46 Volkanovski)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Volkanovski (50-45 Volkanovski)

The Official Result
Alexander Volkanovski def. Diego Lopes via Unanimous Decision (49-46, 49-46, 50-45)
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

Connor picks Volkanovski, echoing Zane's reasoning about Lopes' lack of process. He emphasizes that Lopes' success is built on favorable matchups and short-notice opponents, and that Volkanovski has multiple paths to victory. Connor notes that Lopes' style is similar to Paddy Pimblett's but with better athleticism, and that Volkanovski's wrestling and fight IQ should be enough to overcome Lopes' early aggression. He acknowledges the risk of Volkanovski's chin but believes Lopes is not the same level as Topuria or Makhachev.

Volkanovski should be -200 to -300 favorite; odds too wide in Lopes' favor
"I think Volkonovski deserves to be in the minus two to 300 range, frankly. I get that like the vibe is out there on Lopez, but it just should not happen."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Apr 16, 2025 (fight day)
Diego Lopes

Daniel Levi picked Diego Lopes going into the fight, believing Lopes would catch Volkanovski and close the show as he normally does. He expected Volkanovski to be diminished from back-to-back knockout losses. However, he notes that Lopes was gunshy and hesitant after hurting Volkanovski, failing to pull the trigger enough, which cost him the fight.

"I actually picked Diego Lopez going into the fight and I thought that he was going to be able to catch Vulcanowski and when he did, I thought he was going to close the show like he normally does."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Apr 9, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

Lucrative James picks Alexander Volkanovski to win, citing his superior skill set, cardio, fight IQ, and ability to win the minutes. He believes Volkanovski will dominate in rounds four and five, as Lopes has shown a tendency to fade late. He acknowledges the danger of Lopes' early finishing ability but thinks Volkanovski's experience and durability will carry him. He also notes that Volkanovski has taken a year off to recover, which should benefit him. The biggest worry is Volkanovski's age and potential decline, but he still sides with the former champion.

He suggests betting on Volkanovski inside the distance in rounds four or five, possibly via ground and pound. He also mentions that if betting on Lopes, one should take his round one or round two KO props.
"Alexander Vulcanowski is my pick in this one. I believe he can win it inside the distance in the late rounds."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

Zane picks Volkanovski because he believes Diego Lopes lacks a coherent process and relies on reckless aggression and counter-punching without controlling the initiative. He notes that Volkanovski has multiple paths to victory: pressuring, counter-fighting, or wrestling. Zane compares Lopes to Dricus du Plessis and Paddy Pimblett, suggesting his success is built on favorable matchups and short-notice opponents. He acknowledges Volkanovski's recent knockout losses and potential chin issues but sees Lopes as a step down from the elite fighters who beat Volk.

Volkanovski should be -200 to -300 favorite; odds too wide in Lopes' favor
"I cannot help but pick Volkonovski. It is one of those things where like I would pick Volkonovski if he gets to pressure. I would pick Volkonovski if he gets to fight on the back foot and counter fight and …"
WIN vs Brian Ortega
Decision (unanimous) (30–26, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 306: O'Malley vs. Dvalishvili · Sep 14, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Diego Lopes 0 63 of 195 32% 69 of 201 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:06
Brian Ortega 0 106 of 206 51% 113 of 214 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:45
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Diego Lopes 0 15 of 45 33% 21 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Brian Ortega 0 29 of 57 50% 34 of 63 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:03
2 Diego Lopes 0 16 of 48 33% 16 of 48 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Brian Ortega 0 22 of 46 47% 22 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
3 Diego Lopes 0 32 of 102 31% 32 of 102 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:06
Brian Ortega 0 55 of 103 53% 57 of 105 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:35
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Diego Lopes 63 of 195 32% 52 of 180 4 of 8 7 of 7 61 of 192 1 of 1 1 of 2
Brian Ortega 106 of 206 51% 75 of 172 13 of 15 18 of 19 75 of 161 6 of 7 25 of 38
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Diego Lopes 15 of 45 33% 11 of 41 1 of 1 3 of 3 14 of 43 0 of 0 1 of 2
Brian Ortega 29 of 57 50% 24 of 50 2 of 3 3 of 4 14 of 31 0 of 0 15 of 26
2 Diego Lopes 16 of 48 33% 12 of 42 1 of 3 3 of 3 16 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
Brian Ortega 22 of 46 47% 11 of 35 1 of 1 10 of 10 20 of 43 2 of 3 0 of 0
3 Diego Lopes 32 of 102 31% 29 of 97 2 of 4 1 of 1 31 of 101 1 of 1 0 of 0
Brian Ortega 55 of 103 53% 40 of 87 10 of 11 5 of 5 41 of 87 4 of 4 10 of 12
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Diego Lopes vs. Brian Ortega
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Lopes (-175), Ortega (+145)

Round 1
A backdrop of the Mexico City Metropolitan Cathedral is the fighting area for this next bout, one that signals the victory of Mexico in winning its independence. A relatively short-notice matchup between these upcoming fighters turned into a spectacle at UFC 303, when Ortega (16-3, 1 NC; 8-3, 1 NC UFC) realized that he would not be anywhere close to reaching the featherweight limit. When the weight cut down to 155 pounds still sickened him to the point of withdrawing from the bout, Lopes (25-6, 4-1 UFC) made modern UFC history when Dan Ige stepped in just a few hours before the match. Rescheduled for this September showcase and neither man having issue making weight, the two elite featherweights will settle things. Referee Marc Goddard draws the assignment for this intense 145-pound contest, and he checks the fighters in. They clap hands, and proceed cautiously. Ortega leads off with his boxing, sticking out a few short strings of punches. Lopes responds with a low kick, and a remarkably powerful barrage of blows that knock Ortega off his feet. Ortega recovers to try to escape, and Lopes follows him, lifts him up and hurls him to the mat like a side of beef. Lopes decides to get into the guard so he can hammer Ortega with ground-and-pound, and he shrugs off a triangle choke to bust up Ortega’s eye. Lopes lowers himself down again to attack, once more pushing past a triangle, and the cut on Ortega’s left eye is even worse. Ortega turns over to give up his back, and the Brazilian leaps on top of him and lays into him with right hands. Ortega works his way off the fence and smacks Lopes with an upkick, so Lopes responds by grabbing hold of the ankle and lowering himself down to attack. Ortega’s snake-like offensive guard threatens every step of the way, and Lopes appears to want to make a point by either submitting Ortega or playing fearlessly in his guard. Lopes cannot find a way in, so he backs off and beckons Ortega back to his feet. Ortega thanks him for this by landing a pair of punches, and Lopes returns fire to that damaged eye. Ortega plants two kicks in the inside of his foe’s leg, and he connects with an uppercut and a left hand. Lopes jabs his way in, and Ortega’s is far more concussive as he knocks Lopes back. Lopes scoops a left hook around the guard and square into Ortega’s jaw, and Ortega responds with a blitz that is met with an elbow. Lopes sticks out his jab and follows it with a low kick, and he checks a kick coming back his way. Ortega catches a kick and winds up a right hand, but Lopes beats him to the punch when wrenching it back and clips Ortega with a three-fist bouquet. Lopes loops a left over the guard, and he connects with three punches before Ortega can give one back. “T-City” plants a kick to the ribs, and the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Lopes
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Lopes
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Lopes

Round 2
The two men high-five before engaging again. Ortega leads off behind his jab, and Lopes sways as his mullet follows behind him. Ortega boxes his way in, and has his chin checked by powerful punches from the Brazilian. Lopes walks through a jab to load up on a right hand, and he tags a speeding Ortega with a right hand as Ortega comes by him. Ortega lets his right hand fly as well, and Lopes ducks and works the body. Lopes gets off a few leg kicks, and Ortega shoots in for a single and is uppercutted several times to stop his approach. Lopes keeps working on the front leg during the lulls, and Ortega loads up on a pair on his own side. Lopes wings a right hand that is easily parried, and he hops forward with a left hook that just misses the mark as well. The looping Lopes right hand knocks Ortega back, and he shakes it off and eats a subsequent head kick like a chile relleno. Lopes darts in with two punches, Ortega pays him back, and they trade power shots. Lopes blasts the former title challenger with a leg kick that knocks Ortega off his feet, and a huge welt has developed on and around his shin. Lopes lets him stand back up, and he kicks the same spot once before Ortega races at him. The two trade jabs, and Ortega follows one with a straight right hand. Lopes’ counter combo bounces off the guard, and he slaps a low kick as Ortega fails on checking it. Lopes plants a right hand on the jaw at the end of three punches, and Ortega counters with a right up top and a few jabs. Ortega partially checks a chopping kick, and his jab reddens the nose of the Brazilian. The round comes to a close.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Lopes
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Lopes
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Lopes

Round 3
The fighters clap hands one final time as the last round begins, and Ortega is not sure-footed as he slips on his front leg. Lopes scoops a left hand around the guard and nails Ortega’s swollen shin with another kick. Ortega jabs the body, and Lopes sits down on a left hook that clubs “T-City” on the side of the noggin. The featherweights trade jabs, and Ortega attacks his own leg kick. Lopes does the same with another kick, and he catches Ortega in the midst of a combination. Ortega stands in the pocket and trades leather, and Lopes clips him again but Ortega is right there to deliver punishment in response. Lopes absorbs several straight punches, and he loads up on responses. Lopes snaps the head back with bitter strikes, and Ortega remains right in front of him putting his hands in his face. Lopes chops the front leg and goes after a push kick, and Ortega catches the second but sets it down. Ortega sneakily works his way into a takedown attempt, and the Brazilian stops it in its tracks and pushes Ortega away. Lopes nails the front leg with his umpteenth kick, and Ortega pops Lopes in the chops with a big right hand. Lopes hurts Ortega with a right hand and a left, and Ortega wipes his eye as if he got poked, but it appeared to be a punch and not an outstretched digit. Lopes races at him throwing hands, but he ties him up and holds on instead of taking him down or otherwise attacking. They separate, and Lopes apologizes in case he was a poke after all. Ortega acknowledges it, and the two start slugging. Ortega fights behind his jab, and Lopes wobbles him twice with massive left hooks. Ortega’s chin is made of sterner stuff as he rarely backs off, but eventually Lopes’ left hook finds its home in the perfect way. Lopes sends “T-City” flying, and he runs after him and takes his back to try to submit the grappler. He bails from that submission setup to stand and bang for the remaining seconds, and he batters Ortega with a final flurry of fists.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Lopes (30-27 Lopes)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Lopes (30-27 Lopes)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Lopes (30-27 Lopes)

The Official Result
Diego Lopes def. Brian Ortega via Unanimous Decision (30-26, 30-27, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 8, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Diego Lopes

Angelo picks Diego Lopes confidently, having placed a full unit on him at -175. He dismisses concerns about Lopes fading in the third round of his last fight, attributing it to the chaos of multiple opponent and weight class changes on short notice. He believes Lopes is the better striker and grappler, and that Ortega's takedown accuracy is poor. He criticizes Ortega for missing weight and calls him a 'fat slob', expecting Lopes to steamroll him again.

Placed 1 unit on Lopes at -175.
"Diego Lopez is going to be the pick I have a full unit on him at minus 175"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Diego Lopes

Big Brady picks Lopes, citing his rapid improvement, youth, and hunger. He notes Lopes can win by decision or early finish, but expects Ortega's toughness to carry him to a decision loss. He predicts Lopes wins 29-28.

"I got to go Lopez here... I'll officially say Lopez by decision I think Ortega is tough enough to survive these first two rounds... I think Lopez wins it 29-28"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Sep 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Brian Ortega

Daniel Vreeland picks Brian Ortega as a dog, citing his grappling advantage as the difference maker. He notes Ortega nearly submitted Alexander Volkanovski and controlled Yair Rodriguez on the mat. He believes Diego Lopez relies on scrambles, while Ortega catches people in scrambles. He trusts Ortega's grappling to hold up and likes the plus money.

"I'm gonna take Brian Ortega um and I you know I took him the first time obviously the pull out's a little bit of a concern uh but the the odds have swung even further in the other direction which …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Sep 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Diego Lopes

Daniel picks Diego Lopes but with low confidence, citing Lopes' tendency to fade in third rounds and Ortega's legendary third-round finishing ability. He thinks Lopes will win a controversial split decision by taking the first two rounds, but worries about Ortega's durability and Lopes' cardio. He notes Lopes' dangerous hooks and Ortega's ability to weather storms.

"I'm think I'm picking Lopez but not impressively I think I'm picking Lopez by like a controversial Split Decision"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Sep 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Diego Lopes

Jeff Fox picks Diego Lopes because he is bigger, younger, and can grapple a bit. He took Lopes last time and is sticking with him, noting Lopes is on a roll.

"I took Lopez last time I'm taking Lopez this time as well bigger younger um I like him much better than the feet and he can uh he can grapple a little bit as well so uh give me the …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Jun 2, 2025 (fight day)

The transcript does not discuss this fight. The host covers other fights but not Lopes vs Ortega.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Sep 13, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Diego Lopes

Lopez's BJJ background will save him from the threat Ortega normally poses on the ground. Lopez also provides more threats in the striking realm. Expects Lopez to win inside the distance.

wins inside the distance
"I expect his BJJ background to say him from the threat that Orga normally puts people in when they get fights to the ground and I do think that Lopez provides more threats in the Striking room as well I'm …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 9, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Diego Lopes

The MMA Guru picks Diego Lopes. He notes that Ortega is a slow starter and Lopes is more switched on currently. He believes Lopes has better takedown defense and grappling conditioning than Yair Rodriguez, and his striking is more consistent. He also mentions Ortega has taken a lot of damage and has had only one fight in over two years. He sees Lopes winning by finish or decision.

"I'm going to go Diego Lopez I'm going to trust in the favorite here... I think he's more switched on as a fighter right now in his career"
WIN vs Dan Ige
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · Jun 29, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Diego Lopes 0 42 of 77 54% 67 of 103 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:39
Dan Ige 0 49 of 100 49% 90 of 143 1 of 3 33% 1 0 4:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Diego Lopes 0 9 of 24 37% 9 of 24 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Dan Ige 0 22 of 47 46% 23 of 48 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:23
2 Diego Lopes 0 8 of 12 66% 17 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dan Ige 0 12 of 16 75% 51 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:10
3 Diego Lopes 0 25 of 41 60% 41 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:39
Dan Ige 0 15 of 37 40% 16 of 38 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:33
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Diego Lopes 42 of 77 54% 34 of 67 4 of 5 4 of 5 24 of 53 3 of 4 15 of 20
Dan Ige 49 of 100 49% 32 of 74 8 of 14 9 of 12 38 of 85 10 of 14 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Diego Lopes 9 of 24 37% 6 of 21 2 of 2 1 of 1 7 of 21 2 of 3 0 of 0
Dan Ige 22 of 47 46% 16 of 38 3 of 6 3 of 3 14 of 37 8 of 10 0 of 0
2 Diego Lopes 8 of 12 66% 6 of 9 1 of 1 1 of 2 6 of 10 0 of 0 2 of 2
Dan Ige 12 of 16 75% 6 of 9 3 of 3 3 of 4 11 of 15 0 of 0 1 of 1
3 Diego Lopes 25 of 41 60% 22 of 37 1 of 2 2 of 2 11 of 22 1 of 1 13 of 18
Dan Ige 15 of 37 40% 10 of 27 2 of 5 3 of 5 13 of 33 2 of 4 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Dan Ige vs. Diego Lopes
ODDS: Lopes (-275), Ige (+220)

Round 1
The sport never fails to surprise. As recent as a few hours ago, two-time former featherweight title challenger Ortega was planning on facing surging 145er Lopes (24-6, 3-1 UFC). That fight came together on quite short notice, and as a result, Ortega was unable to make 146 pounds comfortably—transforming the matchup into a lightweight affair. However, on fight day, Ortega fell ill and was forced out of the fight. In a first for the UFC, Xtreme Couture product Ige (18-7, 10-6 UFC), who trains in Las Vegas, is stepping up to serve as the latest-notice replacement imaginable. Again, this has never happened before. Ige hit the scale at 164.5 pounds today, making the 165-pound catchweight affair official—the magnificently mulleted Lopes weighed 161 pounds on the other side of the equation. The two will give it their all while referee Jason Herzog keeps things clean, and they decide to touch ‘em up before swinging for the fences. Lopes starts right out in the center of the cage, keeping his guard up to parry early jabs from the Hawaiian. Lopes lands a quick leg kick, ducks down and lets go with two fast punches. Ige comes in to swing, and Lopes dips to drive a counter knee up the middle. Ige counters on the way out, and they reset with Lopes pawing with a front kick. Ige misses a huge left hand, and Lopes catches him with a knee that spins his man around. Ige twirls and recovers without issue, evading the worst of the rest that comes his way. Ige shells up to protect against a few punches and a step-in elbow, and he lets Lopes bounce punches off his guard. Lopes sneaks in a knee, and he strings three punches around the guard as well. Lopes slams his shin on the outside of Ige’s front leg and flashes a jab, and the two in alternating stances hand-fight on the outer edge. Ige swings and misses, and Lopes meets him with a right hand before Ige backs off. Lopes whiffs with a jump knee, and he lands lobbing hooks from both hand. Ige prevents them from getting to him and pushes Lopes away, keeping his guard up to defend against a head kick that follows. Lopes winds up on a power right hand, and it is one-and-done as Ige lets it harmless clatter off the guard. Ige ducks down to race forward and engage in a slugfest, and Lopes drives him back with a combination punctuated with an uppercut. Ige walks through a low kick to shoot for a takedown, and Lopes hits the ground and instinctively snatches up a guillotine choke. Ige turns to the right direction, and Lopes adjusts his grip to set up a brabo choke. Ige keeps twisting and returns to his feet, and the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Lopes
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Lopes
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Lopes

Round 2
The fighters jog towards one another to start the second round, where they share a fist bump. Ige is the initial aggressor, sliding in to deliver a straight left hand and slipping away to not get countered. Lopes chambers and fires a calf kick that spurs Ige into movement, and Lopes is ready for him coming in and tags him with a right hand. Lopes works on the front leg again, forcing a stance switch. Lopes tries to jab and is caught with a right hand behind the ear, and he shakes it off and meanders forward to let go with a leg kick. Ige returns fire with his own calf kick, prompting Lopes to loose a few body shots. A few jabs have opened a cut on the bridge of Ige’s nose, and he pays it no mind and slings a head kick that bangs onto the man with the mullet. Lopes grabs hold of it and chucks the Hawaiian down to the ground, where Ige scrambles and is quick to recover back to his feet. Lopes follows him and gets hold of him from behind, and he allows Ige to roll through so he can maintain the back control while locking down a body triangle in a hurry. Lopes softens Ige up with short, frustrating right hands, and he searches for a rear-naked choke but does not have a free hand to get it. Ige turns over to his knees, and Lopes adjusts his leg lock around the waist to keep Ige stuck in his grasp. Lopes smacks Ige upside the head a few times, and his search for the choke is fruitless as Ige maintains smart two-on-one wrist control. Lopes keeps bopping Ige with minor strikes, and Ige turns to his side and start slugging Lopes in the face with surprisingly powerful blows. Lopes transitions to an armbar with seconds to spare, and Ige turns over and rides it out to end the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Lopes
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Lopes
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Lopes

Round 3
Lopes offers a double glove touch and pats Ige on the side to initiate the final frame, and he backs away to commence offense. The Brazilian reaches out with a front kick while adjusting his gloves, and Ige walks through it and a low kick to back Lopes to the wall. Ige loops a left hand over the top that brushes Lopes’ hair, and he tries again and does the same. Lopes gets off six punches in a rapid flurry while Ige chucks one bomb, and Lopes is not concerned about the flamethrowing Hawaiian. Lopes gets out a jab, and Ige touches him with a right hand that briefly wobbles Lopes. Lopes fires back with an uppercut, and he appears to have his legs beneath him again in a hurry. Ige charges swinging punches, and he walks into a leg kick that disrupts his movement. Lopes rushes him and nearly completes a takedown, but Ige scrambles to burst back to his feet. Ige walks Lopes down, who may be flagging, and he has his right hand ready to release. Ige releases it. Lopes takes it on the temple and absorbs a subsequent uppercut, and he digs a left to the body and right to the head. A huge left hand from the Hawaiian knocks Lopes against the fencing, prompting a desperation single from the Brazilian. Lopes manages to turn the corner and drive Ige down to a knee, and Ige stands back up with a hook around him as Lopes tries to make him carry their body weight. Ige forces Lopes to slide off his back, and he lowers himself down to the guard to bust Lopes in the chops with fierce punches. Lopes ties him up with a closed guard to ride out the clock, and Ige sits up to nail him with a stiff right. Ige postures up to deliver a single elbow on the cheek, and he rains two more down and smiles. Ige drops right hands on the midsection, and he lets loose with a number of pounding left hands. Ige is pushed up to his feet from Lopes’ legs after Lopes gets tagged, and Lopes upkicks him and flusters him until the final horn sounds. No matter the result, these two men should be proud of their performances and simply the fact that the fight happened. History was made tonight.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ige (29-28 Lopes)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Ige (29-28 Lopes)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Ige (29-28 Lopes)

The Official Result
Diego Lopes def. Dan Ige via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 26, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Cody fades the hype on Diego Lopes and picks Brian Ortega. He argues that Lopes' wins are over lower-level competition (Gavin Tucker, Pat Sabatini, Sodi Yusuf) and that his takedown defense is poor. Ortega, on the other hand, has fought the elite of the division and has shown improved wrestling, taking down Yair Rodriguez, Alexander Volkanovski, and Max Holloway. Cody believes Ortega's experience, durability, and Jiu-Jitsu will neutralize Lopes' grappling, and that Ortega has multiple paths to victory including submission or decision.

"The fade train's going to roll into town here, we're going to go with T-City to take out Diego Lopez."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jun 27, 2024 (2 days before fight)

Daniel Vreeland picks Brian Ortega as the underdog, arguing that people are writing him off too soon. He notes that Ortega was a whisper away from submitting Alexander Volkanovski, and his grappling is at another level. Vreeland believes Ortega can hold his own on the feet and will get the better of scrambles. He compares this fight to Ortega vs. Yair Rodriguez, where Ortega proved doubters wrong. He also questions whether Diego Lopes is as good as Yair Rodriguez.

"I like the dog here I'm going Brian Ortega... people have been writing off Brian Ortega for some time... we're literally three fights removed from him damn near submitting Alexander volkanovski."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Jun 27, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Dan Ige

Daniel is leaning towards Ortega (Ige) by decision, citing Ortega's durability, offensive wrestling improvements, and experience against top competition. He notes that Lopes has a poor record when fights go to decision (2-4) and that Ortega is 5-1 in decisions with the only loss to Volkanovski. He expects Ortega to weather early adversity and accumulate top control.

wins by decision
"I'm leaning towards Ortega by decision... I'm going Brian Ortega here to get past the early adversity and accumulate some top control."
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Jun 27, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Diego Lopes

Jeff Fox picks Diego Lopes, stating he is far more explosive on the feet, which is a concern for Ortega. He acknowledges Ortega's grappling is elite but notes that the Volkanovski fight was almost four years ago. Fox prefers the younger fighter who has been mowing through people and sees good value in the line. He admits it's a close matchup but leans Lopes.

"Give me Lopez... far more far more explosive on the feet that's got to be a concern for artega... I'll take the younger fighter who is just been mowing through people."
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Jun 26, 2024 (3 days before fight)

The host does not discuss this fight at all in the transcript. The entire podcast is focused on the Conor McGregor vs Michael Chandler fight, which is not on the provided fight card. Therefore, no pick is made for this fight.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jun 25, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Diego Lopes

The host gives a slight lean to Diego Lopes, citing his momentum, confidence, and striking improvements. He believes Lopes has good enough defensive jiu-jitsu to avoid Ortega's submissions and should have a striking advantage. He notes Ortega has more high-level experience but thinks Lopes' style is perfect to beat Ortega. He mentions the line has moved from -160 to -125 and says he might bet if Lopes becomes the underdog.

"I'm going to lean ever so slightly with Diego Lopez... I think just where he's at in his career and going up against the guy in Diego Lopez who seems to have all the confidence and all the momentum in …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 26, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Paul agrees with Cody, noting that the market loves Lopes but that Ortega has never been finished and has fought the best. He points out that Lopes has low striking volume and questionable takedown defense, while Ortega has a proven ability to win decisions or submissions. Paul also mentions that Ortega's experience against top competition gives him a clear edge, and that Lopes' hype is based on flashy finishes over lesser opponents.

"I agree with pretty much everything you said there. The market seems to absolutely love Diego Lopez this week."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 25, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Diego Lopes

The Guru picks Diego Lopes over Brian Ortega (note: transcript says Ortega vs Lopes, but fight card lists Lopes vs Ige; likely a mistake in transcript). He is confident in Lopes, citing his dangerous striking and submission skills. He believes Lopes will be aggressive from the start, while Ortega may be hesitant. He notes Lopes' short-notice advantage and year-round training. He predicts a first-round finish for Lopes.

finishes in the first round
"I'm going to go with Diego Lopez... I reckon he finishes him in the first round"
WIN vs Sodiq Yusuff
TKO (punches) R1 1:29 · UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · Apr 13, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Diego Lopes 0 2 of 5 40% 2 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sodiq Yusuff 2 26 of 32 81% 29 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:34
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Diego Lopes 0 2 of 5 40% 2 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sodiq Yusuff 2 26 of 32 81% 29 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:34
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Diego Lopes 2 of 5 40% 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 4 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sodiq Yusuff 26 of 32 81% 21 of 27 2 of 2 3 of 3 3 of 4 5 of 7 18 of 21
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Diego Lopes 2 of 5 40% 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 4 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sodiq Yusuff 26 of 32 81% 21 of 27 2 of 2 3 of 3 3 of 4 5 of 7 18 of 21
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Sodiq Yusuff vs. Diego Lopes
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Lopes (-135), Yusuff (+114)

Round 1
The hits keep right on coming, as well-schooled fist-fighter Yusuff (13-3, 6-2 UFC) would like to professionally break down the surging Lopes (23-6, 2-1 UFC) in front of a wild crowd at the T-Mobile Arena. The lion’s share of Yusuff’s wins have come via strikes, while Lopes is an equal opportunity destroyer. Referee Mark Smith will need to keep his head on a swivel when overseeing these featherweights, and it does not feature a glove touch. Yusuff reaches out with a long low kick, and when that misses, he tries again. Lopes meets him with one that is checked. The two fighters trade calf kicks and little else, until Lopes springs into action with a one-two and a checked low kick. Lopes unloads with an uppercut that knocks “Super Sodiq” off his feet, and Yusuff collapses down to the mat. Lopes gives chase, pounding on his man, and Yusuff fights back to his feet valiantly.
Lopes rushes after him and smashes him in the face with another uppercut, and Yusuff crashes to the ground, totally defeated. Lopes, his mullet waving majestically behind him, drums out a flattened Yusuff with punches to the side of the head, with a seemingly unending barrage of strikes that only concludes when Smith gets between them to call a halt to the one-sided bludgeoning.
This is a huge moment for the meteorically rising Lopes, who will likely be ranked come Monday.

The Official Result
Diego Lopes def. Sodiq Yusuff R1 1:29 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Apr 7, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Sodiq Yusuff

Angelo picks Sodiq Yusuff as the underdog, believing he is the much better striker with good fight IQ to avoid grappling. He notes Lopes has dangerous BJJ but will struggle to get the fight to the ground. He also likes the over 2.5 rounds prop.

Over 2.5 rounds
"I am going to pick the underdog here in sadik YF but he is going to need to fight a perfect 15 minutes"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Sodiq Yusuff

Cody fades Diego Lopes again, noting Lopes' wrestling isn't great and he stands tall, leaving himself open to be hit. He points out that Lopes has been taken down by Movsar Evloev and Gavin Tucker. Yusuff is a sharpshooter with good Jiu-Jitsu from Team Lloyd Irvin, and he has cardio and decent power. Cody believes Yusuff can use a point-fight style, staying at range and picking Lopes apart. He also mentions that Yusuff has takedown defense to keep the fight standing. Cody picks Yusuff as an underdog.

Fight goes the distance (+135) or over 1.5 rounds (-180) mentioned as alternatives
"I will go with Underdog number three technically two however we want to look at it that plus money on soq St I'm willing to try to fade Diego Lopez one time."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Apr 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Diego Lopes

Connor picks Lopes, arguing that his relentless chaos and willingness to keep trying different attacks will overwhelm Yusuff. He notes that Yusuff often starts strong but fades as opponents adjust, while Lopes just increases the intensity. Connor admits that Yusuff could win by controlling Lopes on the ground, but he believes Lopes' unpredictability and durability will carry him.

Odds: Lopes opened -169, now -138; Yusuff opened +132, now +124. Connor mentions the line movement.
"I think I am going to pick Diego Lopez. I think the best way to beat him is either to knock him out or finish him very quickly, which most fighters are incapable of doing."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Sodiq Yusuff

Daniel Vreeland picks Sodiq Yusuff, citing his superior boxing, output, and defensive skills. He believes Yusuff can outpoint Lopes and avoid submissions, noting that Lopes is opportunistic but limited. Vreeland acknowledges Lopes' finishing ability but trusts Yusuff's experience and durability.

"I truly believe that Sodiq can outpoint this guy"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Apr 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Lucrative James does not make a pick for this fight. He calls it a banger and says he is very interested in it, but does not give a prediction. He notes that most people won't know about it unless they are hardcore fans, and that it will be on the prelims.

"I'm very very interested in that fight and that fight is going to be on the prelims so to have a fight like that on the prelims it just shows you what Dana has in store for this card"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Sodiq Yusuff

Yusuff has better experience and a higher level striking game. His takedown defense and ability to keep the fight upright will force Lopes to make mistakes on the feet, allowing Yusuff to counter and find a knockout in round two.

knockout in round two
"give me Yousef by knockout in round two"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Sodiq Yusuff

Paul sides with Cody, noting that Yusuff should have advantages at range. He acknowledges a red flag: Edson Barboza, not known for wrestling, took Yusuff down three times, so Lopes could get the fight to the ground. However, Paul believes Yusuff has enough takedown defense and ground skills to survive. He thinks the fight could go to decision and mentions the decision prop at +250. Paul expects Yusuff to keep the fight upright and win a decision.

Decision prop (+250) mentioned
"I'm going to side with you I think that you know sodi will have just enough takedown defense to keep this one upright and at range."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Diego Lopes

The MMA Guru picks Diego Lopes to win by rear-naked choke, despite initially considering Sodiq Yusuff. He notes Yusuff struggled against Alex Caceres and that Lopes thrives under pressure. He believes Lopes's finishing ability and scrambling will be too much for Yusuff, who may be hesitant after a five-round war.

rear-naked choke
"I'm going with Diego Lopez rear naked choke."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Apr 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Sodiq Yusuff

Zane picks Yusuff, believing his wrestling and clinch control will neutralize Lopes' chaotic style. He notes that Yusuff is a strong wrestler and physically powerful, and Lopes' car-crash approach often leads to him being controlled. Zane acknowledges that Lopes could catch Yusuff with a submission or knockout, but he trusts Yusuff's consistency and defensive grappling.

Odds: Lopes opened -169, now -138; Yusuff opened +132, now +124. Zane mentions the line movement.
"I think I'm going to take use of here. It's only been like stylistically. It doesn't feel like it should be that difficult for him to just sort of neuter Lopez."
WIN vs Pat Sabatini
KO (punches) R1 1:30 · UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira · Nov 11, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Diego Lopes 1 13 of 18 72% 13 of 18 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Pat Sabatini 0 7 of 12 58% 10 of 16 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Diego Lopes 1 13 of 18 72% 13 of 18 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Pat Sabatini 0 7 of 12 58% 10 of 16 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Diego Lopes 13 of 18 72% 11 of 15 2 of 2 0 of 1 4 of 8 3 of 3 6 of 7
Pat Sabatini 7 of 12 58% 3 of 7 3 of 4 1 of 1 5 of 10 1 of 1 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Diego Lopes 13 of 18 72% 11 of 15 2 of 2 0 of 1 4 of 8 3 of 3 6 of 7
Pat Sabatini 7 of 12 58% 3 of 7 3 of 4 1 of 1 5 of 10 1 of 1 1 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Diego Lopes vs. Pat Sabatini
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Sabatini (-120), Lopes (+100)

Round 1
The main card is upon us, and it should provide a grappler’s delight as the two featherweights about to invade the Octagon combine for 23 submission victories without a single defeat via tapout. Aiming to prove he is not just a grappler, action-packed Brazilian contender Lopes (22-6, 1-1 UFC) will bring his 89% finish rate and try to threaten every step of the fight. With not a great deal of New Yorkers on the card, the UFC dipped into the Tri-State Area to pull Pennsylvanian Sabatini (18-4, 4-1 UFC) up onto the billing, and he too would like to showcase his jiu-jitsu chops when it counts. Referee Keith Peterson will draw the assignment for the pay-per-view opener, and the fighters quickly touch ‘em up. No nonsense will be permitted for the next 15 minutes or less. Both men bounce up and down while quite distant from one another, and Lopes tries to reach with a kick. Sabatini surges forward with a three-punch salvo that gets Lopes’ attention, and Lopes has to shake it off early. Sabatini jumps with a switch kick to the body, and Lopes looks to catch it but lets it go all while chants for “USA” rain down in support of Sabatini. The Pennsylvanian comes up short with another jump kick, and the two come together for a possible takedown effort of some sort. Lopes stands his man up with an uppercut as they try to get upright, and Sabatini is stunned when he tries to take a step back. The Brazilian immediately follows suit with a vicious right hand on the temple, and Sabatini might be out on his feet as he turns to another direction and his eyes go wide. Lopes will not let this fish get away, and he charges after Sabatini with powerful fists until pushing Sabatini down to his side. Lopes traps the Pennsylvania native’s arm behind his back and begins battering Sabatini with his free hand. Sabatini, unable to block his face and clinging to consciousness, gets knocked out, back in, and out again as Lopes punishes him with right hands. Peterson recognizes that Sabatini cannot defend himself at all, and he calls a stop to the beating. What a performance for Lopes, who likely catapults himself into featherweight contendership by wrecking a tough out in about a minute and a half.

The Official Result
Diego Lopes def. Pat Sabatini R1 1:30 via KO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 5, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Pat Sabatini

Angelo picks Sabatini, believing his takedowns and BJJ will neutralize Lopes. He criticizes Lopes' takedown defense and striking, and thinks Sabatini will control the fight on the ground. He plans to bet on Sabatini later in the week.

"I think Pat sabatini is going to win this fight and I'm somewhat confident in that."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Diego Lopes

Big Brady picks Diego Lopes as the underdog, predicting a second or third round submission. He likes Lopes' evolving striking, power, and dangerous submission game off his back. He worries about Sabatini's durability on the feet, noting he has been dropped early in fights. Brady thinks Lopes has more ways to win and that Sabatini will have to fight off submissions for 15 minutes.

Lopes by submission in rounds 2-3
"I'm going to take the dog here in Lopez, I think he gets it done by second or third round submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Pat Sabatini

Cody picks Sabatini, expecting him to get takedowns and control the fight on top. He notes Sabatini's suffocating top game and ability to avoid submissions. He thinks Lopes' guard is dangerous but Sabatini's grappling is good enough to avoid trouble, and he sees value at even money.

"I like Pat sabbatini I think he gets the takedowns I think he establish top control he avoids those tricky submission attempts"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Nov 7, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Diego Lopes

James leans Diego Lopes because he believes Lopes has a clear advantage on the feet with more power and a better chin, while Sabatini's wrestling may not be sufficient to consistently control Lopes. He notes that Sabatini has been submitted before and is chinny, and Lopes has submission upside. However, he acknowledges Sabatini could have control time on top, making it a tricky matchup.

"I lean Lopez in this spot."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Pat Sabatini

Sabatini is the better wrestler and will dictate where the fight takes place. He is a good enough BJJ artist to fend off Lopes' submission attempts. Sabatini will control positions and grind out a decision win. The line at -120 is a good value. Notes that recency bias from Lopes' highlight finishes is inflating his line.

"at minus 120 sign me up for Pat sabatini"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Pat Sabatini

Paul picks Sabatini, emphasizing his wrestling and top control. He notes Lopes has been taken down easily in the past and relies on submissions from guard. He thinks Sabatini's suffocating style will neutralize Lopes' offense and lead to a decision win.

"sabatini is just way too suffocating man"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Diego Lopes

The MMA Guru picks Diego Lopes, noting his superior Jiu-Jitsu and comfort on the ground, which neutralizes Sabatini's back-taking game. He also highlights Lopes' striking advantage, size, and reach. He predicts a TKO win for Lopes, referencing his recent performances against Movsar Evloev and Gavin Tucker.

TKO
"I'm going with Diego Lopez I think he's slick dangerous everywhere I think he's going to get a TKO on Pat satini"
Steve Garcia - Fight History
SCHED vs Diego Lopes
UFC Freedom 250 · Jun 14, 2026
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Lean picked Jun 3, 2026 (11 days before fight)
Steve Garcia

AJ is leaning towards Steve Garcia, citing Garcia's terrifying hands and cardio to go three hard rounds. He thinks Garcia could outstrike Lopes and notes that Lopes is not a grapple smotherer, making it hard for him to control Garcia. He also mentions Garcia's chin and finishing ability.

"I think I'm gonna end up going Steve Garcia. I won't lie to you guys."
WIN vs David Onama
KO R1 3:34 · UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama · Nov 01, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Steve Garcia 1 33 of 62 53% 43 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
David Onama 0 2 of 16 12% 2 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Steve Garcia 1 33 of 62 53% 43 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
David Onama 0 2 of 16 12% 2 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Steve Garcia 33 of 62 53% 28 of 56 5 of 6 0 of 0 26 of 52 5 of 7 2 of 3
David Onama 2 of 16 12% 1 of 14 0 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Steve Garcia 33 of 62 53% 28 of 56 5 of 6 0 of 0 26 of 52 5 of 7 2 of 3
David Onama 2 of 16 12% 1 of 14 0 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Steve Garcia vs. David Onama
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Garcia (-130); Onama (+110)

Round 1
It’s time for the main event, a ranked featherweight five-rounder that should be a banger. After what has happened so far tonight, one can hope that Herb Dean can keep things legitimate because there have been some
serious
questions of integrity tonight. Garcia (18-5, 7-2 UFC) and Onama (14-2, 6-2 UFC) are about to let their hands go, and before they do, Dean brings them to the center of the cage to issue final instructions. Will they follow them? Who the heck knows.
The main event opens with a fist bump from the athletes. The featherweights are jittery and trying to figure things out early, so Garcia breaks that silence about 15 seconds in with a clubbing right hand. He walks Onama down, peppering him with his jab and follow-up left hook. Onama bounces off the fence, so Garcia chases him down with a bouquet of blistering left hands. Garcia mixes up body shots, and he snaps out a jab to intercept a front kick. Garcia reaches out with a left hook, shaking Onama up, and he continues to chain together his lefts. Onama fires back when he back, but Garcia’s volume and looping lefts are getting Onama’s attention time and time again.
Garcia steps in behind a left hand, and Onama is tough but quickly becoming a heavy bag. Garcia beats his man to the punch with a combo featuring his left, and when Onama bounces back up, Garcia comes right after him. “Mean Machine” does not let Onama off the hook, blasting him with a number of left hands that knock him from one side of the cage to another. Garcia lets fly a head kick as well, and he continues to rush at “Silent Assassin” with a barrage of brutal lefts. Onama fires back and shreds open a cut on Garcia’s eyebrow, but Garcia is a man on a mission and wants to finish the job.
Garcia’s offense wilts Onama, bending him over with a liver kick. He sees his opening to put the Factory X fighter away and takes it, swarming him with punches that topple Onama to the floor. From there, Garcia keeps pounding away as Onama turtles up, and only a few hammerfists are needed for “Mean Machine” to seal the deal.
Onama protests when Dean calls a halt to the match, but he soon realizes that he will not be convincing anyone after his performance. This was one-way traffic for the Jackson-Wink fighter, who prevails in under four minutes and punches his ticket to greater things coming soon. While the triumphant man calls out Max Holloway for the BMF belt, he may have to look elsewhere to climb the ladder before getting there. When he does compete next, however, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.

The Official Result
Steve Garcia def. David Onama R1 3:34 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Oct 31, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Steve Garcia

Angelo picks Steve Garcia, citing his awkward, lurching movement and sheer size for the weight class as problematic for David Onama. He notes Garcia's power and forward pressure, but acknowledges Onama is faster and more technical. He mentions Garcia has been knocked out before, while Onama hasn't, but doesn't see Onama knocking him out. He calls it a close competitive fight and leans Garcia.

"I do like Steve Garcia in this match-up because I think he has... awkward enough that it can be a problem."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Oct 31, 2025 (1 day before fight)
David Onama

Big Brady leans toward David Onama, citing Steve Garcia's tendency to leave openings and get dropped, as seen in fights against Charlie Ontiveros and Maheshate. He acknowledges Garcia hits hard and is all violence, but believes Onama is more durable and can take advantage. He predicts a second-round knockout for Onama.

second round knockout, plus 110 underdog
"I'm going to I'm going to lean with Oama just because I can't get the the Antivero's fight out of my head. ... I'll actually go Oama to win this fight. I'll take on to win this fight by second …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Oct 30, 2025 (2 days before fight)
David Onama

Connor picks Onama, reasoning that Garcia's losses are worse than Onama's, with more randomness. He notes that Onama has lost to wild brawlers like Nate Landwehr and Mason Jones, which could be Steve Garcia, but those were exhausting fights. He thinks Onama may find success with wrestling and is a better athlete than Garcia's recent opponents.

"I think I am going to pick David Onama here. I think if we're doing some MMA math Steve Garcia's losses are worse than David Onama's."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Oct 27, 2025 (5 days before fight)
David Onama

Lucrative James picks David Onama to win by knockout, but he is not confident. He notes that both fighters have questionable chins and get hurt often, but Onama has never been finished while Garcia has been knocked out before. He also mentions Onama's superior training partners, including Justin Gaethje, and his wrestling upside as potential advantages. However, he emphasizes that this is a pick'em fight and he will not bet the moneyline, instead looking at under props.

under 1.5 rounds, under 2.5 rounds, fight ends by KO
"I'm going to pick David Oama to get the knockout just because I mean there's no real rhyme or reason to it."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Oct 31, 2025 (1 day before fight)
David Onama

The fight is a coin flip; whoever lands the big punch first wins. The host leans slightly to Onama's speed and more tools, thinking he will land a big shot and put Garcia away. But it could easily go the other way, so confidence is low.

inside the distance
"I have to lean ever so slightly to the speed and more tools for the David Onam side. I think it's just a matter of time before he lands that big shot on Garcia and puts him away. ... I …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Steve Garcia

The MMA Guru picks Steve Garcia, citing his recent impressive wins over Melquizael Costa, Kyle Nelson, and Calvin Kattar. He believes Garcia's pressure and volume will break David Onama, who has struggled against similar styles (e.g., Romero). He notes Onama's lack of consistent finishes and potential work ethic issues. He predicts a second or third round TKO.

second or third round TKO
"I'm going to go with Steve Garcia here. I'm glad I remembered that Romero fight of Onama because that was a real worrying look."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Oct 30, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Steve Garcia

Zane picks Garcia because he has seen Onama get hurt badly and fail to focus from the start. He notes that if Garcia can't knock Onama out, it will be a wild war, but he is more willing to believe Onama will never find comfort against Garcia than that Onama can lock Garcia down. He acknowledges the high chaos and randomness in both fighters' careers.

"I think I'm gonna take Garcia just because I have seen Onama get hurt so bad, yeah, and I have seen him not focus on having the right fight from the jump."
WIN vs Calvin Kattar
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Lewis vs. Teixeira · Jul 12, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Calvin Kattar 0 26 of 123 21% 26 of 123 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:21
Steve Garcia 1 85 of 250 34% 85 of 250 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Calvin Kattar 0 8 of 26 30% 8 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Steve Garcia 0 22 of 71 30% 22 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Calvin Kattar 0 5 of 47 10% 5 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Steve Garcia 0 32 of 87 36% 32 of 87 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Calvin Kattar 0 13 of 50 26% 13 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:21
Steve Garcia 1 31 of 92 33% 31 of 92 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Calvin Kattar 26 of 123 21% 21 of 116 3 of 5 2 of 2 26 of 123 0 of 0 0 of 0
Steve Garcia 85 of 250 34% 52 of 208 23 of 29 10 of 13 85 of 249 0 of 0 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Calvin Kattar 8 of 26 30% 4 of 22 2 of 2 2 of 2 8 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
Steve Garcia 22 of 71 30% 11 of 53 5 of 10 6 of 8 22 of 71 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Calvin Kattar 5 of 47 10% 5 of 47 0 of 0 0 of 0 5 of 47 0 of 0 0 of 0
Steve Garcia 32 of 87 36% 19 of 72 10 of 11 3 of 4 32 of 87 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Calvin Kattar 13 of 50 26% 12 of 47 1 of 3 0 of 0 13 of 50 0 of 0 0 of 0
Steve Garcia 31 of 92 33% 22 of 83 8 of 8 1 of 1 31 of 91 0 of 0 0 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Calvin Kattar vs. Steve Garcia
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Garcia (-120); Kattar (+100)

Round 1
On a career-long four-fight skid, Kattar (23-9, 7-7 UFC) has not gotten his hand raised since outdueling Giga Chikadze in 2022. Possibly in the later stages of his career at 37 years old, he is being matched up against a dangerous brawler in Garcia (17-5, 6-2 UFC) who is knocking on the door of ludicrous status should he clock “The Boston Finisher.” Referee Jason Herzog understands his assignment, and the fighters do too, as they touch gloves to engage.
The two featherweight strikers measure one another in the early going, with Garcia eventually leading the dance with a looping pair of punches and some awkward kicks to any target he can find. Kattar ducks and swings hard on an overhand right counter that zips right past the Jackson-Wink representative. Garcia is in the driver’s seat but his connect rate remains low a minute in. Garcia wraps a right around the guard, but his left goes wide. Woots, whoops and cries rain down throughout the Bridgestone Arena, and Garcia silences them with a long punch combination and three head kicks in a row. Kattar defends well but stumbles, and he gets back to his feet and takes a left hand on the jaw. Garcia scores with a left hand and kicks after it.
Katter misses with a huge left hand, and Garcia races through it and lands a combination on Kattar’s face. Kattar is stuck not hitting anything of note, while Garcia is scoring to the head, body and legs. Garcia spins with a sudden wheel kick, and Kattar shells up but his nose takes the brunt of it. Kattar steps in with an elbow on the chin after Garcia hits him a few times, and he partially connects with a lead hook. Garcia forces Kattar to constantly defend himself, and his power drives “The Boston Finisher” back a few steps. Kattar starts to put his jab together, and he is answered with a Jackson-Wink-style oblique kick to the knee. One more kick to the lead leg ends the tepid round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Garcia

Round 2
Both featherweights trade right hands as the round begins, and Garcia stays in Kattar’s face but walks into a left hand on the jaw. Garcia shrugs it off and bounces around before settling down, planting a one-two on Kattar’s visage. Kattar’s looping punches continue to miss, as he is telegraphing his big right and Garcia is able to dodge or stay away from them. Garcia walks Kattar down, spinning with a clean back kick to the ribs, and he drives home several rib-roasters as well. This fires up Kattar, who cracks the favorite. Garcia gives it right back, happy to be getting the brawl he was seeking. Garcia beats Kattar to the jab time and time again.
Kattar employs a step-in elbow that graces Garcia’s melon, and Garcia gives him back several body shots to think about. Garcia dips and dodges the oncoming fire to crack Kattar with a huge left, smashing Kattar’s nose and forcing Kattar to paw at it. Garcia strikes the body when he sees an opening, and he skips forward to deliver two lefts on the chin. Garcia misses a right and left hook by a matter of inches, and he kicks the front of Kattar’s thigh to back him off. The body work from Garcia is getting Kattar to drop his hands, and he winds up with a bomb of a left that buzzes past the longtime vet. Garcia keeps doing work until the bell rings.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Garcia

Round 3
Garcia immediately engages to start the last round, putting hands in Kattar’s face early and often. A heavy left hand drives Kattar back a ways, and he times a head kick and a spinning back fist that Garcia is able to defend. Kattar hops back and forth switching stances, but he does not engage and is just backpedaling when Garcia comes at him. Garcia reaches him with a left hand, and he loads up a subsequent bomb that nearly separates Kattar from his senses. Kattar bounces off the fence to stay afloat, and he clinches Garcia to get his head right. Garcia breaks off and chases the wounded man down, stabbing body kicks and following with liver punches that draw reactions almost every time he connects. Garcia fearlessly walks “The Boston Finisher” down, hurling one-twos and any open strike he can lob. Garcia tries for two clubbing lefts that do not get through, and he parries a front kick and pushes a left hand down the pipe.
Kattar appears to have recovered, but Garcia is not about to let him of the hook and hacks at him with a tomahawk elbow. Garcia kicks Kattar’s leg out, and he lets him back up to swing heavy leather. Kattar bites down on his mouthpiece and walks into a left hand, and he spins with an elbow that bangs square into Garcia’s temple. Garcia, blood now streaking from the bridge of his nose, boots Kattar upside the head and follows him with a left hand. He pushes Kattar back and pops him with a front kick, staying up close and looping lefts. Kattar stands him up with a right hand, and he strikes with a knee and a spinning back fist that both get part of the betting favorite. Garcia tosses windmills, and he waits for Kattar to spin so he can blast him when he plants. Garcia lets loose with a head kick and a spinning wheel kick, and Kattar knocks him back with a fierce overhand right. The two trade last strikes until time expires, and Garcia’s knockout streak has officially ended. Despite that, he still has soundly beaten a legitimate force at featherweight, and has announced himself as a new contender.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Garcia (30-27 Garcia)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Garcia (30-27 Garcia)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Garcia (30-27 Garcia)

The Official Result
Steve Garcia def. Calvin Kattar via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jul 6, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Steve Garcia

Angelo picks Steve Garcia but was initially not confident at higher odds. He notes Calvin Kattar is still a good striker with good takedown defense, but hasn't won in three years and is 37. At even money, he thinks Garcia is a decent play because he's younger and on a knockout streak, but he acknowledges Kattar has never been knocked out.

At even money, thinks Garcia is a decent play.
"Steve Garcia is the pick. I was never going to bet him at a minus 160, but at minus 110, which is unfortunately even money here, I think Steve Garcia could be a decent play."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Calvin Kattar

Big Brady is a fan of Steve Garcia but picks Calvin Kattar due to durability. He notes Garcia has been dropped multiple times, while Kattar has never been knocked out in over 30 fights. He expects a stand-up war and believes Kattar will finish what Charlie Ontiveros started, picking Kattar by first-round knockout.

first round knockout
"Calvin Kedar to win this fight by first round knockout."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Jul 10, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Calvin Kattar

Connor picks Kattar despite his losing streak, reasoning that Kattar has fought only elite fighters and has an incredible chin that has never been cracked. He views Steve Garcia as a 'bad fighter' who closes his eyes and swings wildly, and believes Kattar's durability and experience will carry him. Connor admits he is tired of being wrong about Garcia but trusts the pattern of Kattar losing only to top-tier opponents.

"I'm going to pick Calvin Kattar. ... Steve Garcia, I think is a bad fighter."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 9, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Calvin Kattar

The host acknowledges recency bias making Garcia a slight favorite, but notes that Kattar has never been finished by knockout (except an injury). He believes this is a perfect stylistic matchup for Kattar to counter Garcia effectively and find a knockout, reminding people of his quality. The pick is based on Kattar's durability and counter-striking.

knockout
"Ton of recency bias here making Garcia a very slight favorite. And yes, he is very dangerous, especially with him coming off a fiveight winning streak with all of those wins coming by knockout. But Kater has never been finished …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Steve Garcia

The MMA Guru picks Steve Garcia, citing his recent finishes (Chase Hooper, Shalan Nerd Beck) and his pressure style. He criticizes Calvin Kattar's recent performances, noting poor footwork and takedown defense since his leg injury. He expects Garcia to get in Kattar's face immediately, mix in wrestling, and finish him, though he acknowledges Kattar could win if he finds his rhythm late.

finish
"I'm going to go with Steve Garcia over Calvin Kater. ... I think he's actually gonna finish Calvin Kater here."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Jul 10, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Steve Garcia

Zane picks Garcia, partly to avoid being mocked by a friend named Eddie for always picking against Garcia. He acknowledges that Garcia is a wild, unhinged fighter who frequently gets into trouble but has been winning. Zane notes that Kattar has slowed down and lost venom, and that Garcia's aggressive blitz could overwhelm him, similar to how Arnold Allen attacked Kattar. However, he admits Garcia is not a good technical fighter.

"I'm going to pick Steve Garcia. I'm going to say this is the day that it happens for Calvin Kattar that starting slow..."
WIN vs Kyle Nelson
TKO (elbows and punches) R1 3:59 · UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady · Sep 07, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Steve Garcia 0 22 of 37 59% 39 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:36
Kyle Nelson 0 1 of 2 50% 31 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:13
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Steve Garcia 0 22 of 37 59% 39 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:36
Kyle Nelson 0 1 of 2 50% 31 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:13
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Steve Garcia 22 of 37 59% 20 of 35 1 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 3 0 of 0 20 of 34
Kyle Nelson 1 of 2 50% 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Steve Garcia 22 of 37 59% 20 of 35 1 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 3 0 of 0 20 of 34
Kyle Nelson 1 of 2 50% 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Steve Garcia vs. Kyle Nelson (148.5: Missed Weight)
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Garcia (-192), Nelson (+160)

Round 1
Garcia (16-5, 5-2 UFC) is hungry, and he wants to share his lunch of knuckle sandwiches as the short-notice substitute against Nelson (16-5-1, 4-4-1 UFC). Both men come into this pairing on win streaks, so someone’s momentum is about to come to a grinding halt. Garcia has notably recorded four straight knockouts, a rarity for the weight class. This bout will officially take place at 149 pounds due to the Canadian missing weight, but that should not preclude the two from slugging it out as expected. Gloves are not touched under the watchful eye of referee Mark Smith, and instead they want to fight. Garcia lets fly a kick and a few punches, and he gets pushed back to the wall and trips. Nelson jumps on top to take Garcia’s back in a hurry, and he gets both hooks in without effort. Garcia hand-fights to prevent Nelson from setting up a submission, so the Canadian smacks him in the forehead several times. Nelson tries to set up the body triangle, but Garcia is able to fight off the first setup while he twists to one side and uses two-on-one wrist control. Garcia explodes to spin around, and he falls into an armbar. Garcia unloads with punches with his free arm, and he strikes his way out of the submission and lets Nelson have it with an onslaught of punches and elbows. Nelson turns to his side and shells up, and he slows Garcia down. Garcia elects to grind his elbow on the cheek, and he thumps it down every so often. Garcia slams down a few punches, and he nails Nelson with an elbow that makes Nelson turn to turtle up. As Garcia unleashes a fury, Nelson keeps his wits about him and kicks off Garcia to force him upright. Garcia leaps down and elbows Nelson in the back of the head, and a lump develops in a hurry. Nelson sits up with his back to the cage, and Garcia rails him with an elbow that makes Nelson crumble to his side. Garcia releases a final flurry of elbows and punches, and Smith sees that Nelson is no longer defending himself and intervenes. Nelson tries to stand back up after the fight has been called off, and Smith is there to make sure he does not fall over. This is a statement performance for the ultraviolent Garcia, who has earned five straight knockouts and pounds his way into contender status.

The Official Result
Steve Garcia def. Kyle Nelson R1 3:59 via TKO (Elbows and Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Sep 1, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Steve Garcia

Angelo picks Steve Garcia because he hits very hard, has good wrestling, and is on a four-fight knockout streak. However, he is hesitant because Kyle Nelson has been looking good lately and has power and toughness. He plans to have very little exposure on this fight if he bets.

Angelo says he will bet a very small amount if he bets on Steve Garcia.
"I think Steve Garcia wins but I'm not that confident"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 5, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Steve Garcia

Big Brady picks Steve Garcia to win by knockout in round one. He highlights Garcia's four-fight knockout streak and his dog mentality, but acknowledges Garcia gets dropped often. Brady thinks Garcia will get dropped but get back up and finish Nelson. He favors Garcia more as the fight goes into later rounds.

round 1 KO
"Steve Garcia wins this fight I take him to Win It by knockout but I think somebody's getting served in this one Garcia round one KO"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Kyle Nelson

Cody picks Nelson on the moneyline, citing Garcia's poor chin and tendency to get dropped, while Nelson has improved cardio, wrestling, and durability. He notes Garcia's wins are often against tired or compromised opponents, and that Nelson's pressure and pace can overwhelm Garcia. He sees value at plus money and is confident Nelson can win.

Nelson by decision +1000 (tempting)
"I'm going to go call Nelson money line with the plus money"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Sep 5, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Steve Garcia

Daniel acknowledges Kyle Nelson's improved style but thinks Garcia's kill-or-be-killed pressure will force Nelson to fight, potentially bringing back his old issues. He admits he hasn't been good at predicting the new Kyle Nelson, but he picks Garcia to extend his knockout streak. He notes Garcia is a killer who either knocks you out or gets knocked out.

"I'll pick Steve Garcia here. I think that Steve Garcia is gonna make this guy fight then we're gonna see the old tencies come back from Kyle Nelson and I think that Steve Garcia is gonna extend his kill streak."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Steve Garcia

Garcia is on a four-fight KO streak and has awkward angles that could trouble Nelson. Nelson is also on a roll but Garcia's power is a threat. The under 1.5 rounds is the preferred bet, as Garcia tends to finish early. Garcia by first-round KO is the pick.

Under 1.5 rounds; Garcia by first-round KO
"the under one and a half is where I will put my money here... I'm going to go Garcia Garcia by first round knockout."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Sep 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Kyle Nelson

Paul likes the over 1.5 rounds at +140, believing Nelson's improved cardio and fight IQ will avoid an early knockout. He thinks Nelson can make it competitive and potentially win a decision. He is not confident in betting Garcia at nearly -200, so he leans Nelson but prefers the over prop.

over 1.5 rounds +140 (already bet), may take more if number grows
"I like the over one and a half from this fight I know st's been a oneman rcking crew absolutely knocking out everyone he's got P power in his hands but I feel like seven and a half minutes Kyle …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 3, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Steve Garcia

The MMA Guru picks Steve Garcia over Kyle Nelson, citing a bias against Canadian men. He notes Garcia's weird look as an advantage and his training at Jackson Wink and Soul Focus. He mentions Garcia has beaten good opponents like Melquizael Costa and Saimon Oliveira, but was finished by Chase Hooper. He predicts a decision or KO win.

decision or KO
"I'm going to go with Steve Garcia over Kyle Nelson... I've got Steve Garcia getting this one done by decision or KO"
WIN vs SeungWoo Choi
TKO (punches) R1 1:36 · UFC on ESPN: Lemos vs. Jandiroba · Jul 20, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Steve Garcia 1 15 of 27 55% 18 of 34 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:37
SeungWoo Choi 0 9 of 15 60% 9 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Steve Garcia 1 15 of 27 55% 18 of 34 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:37
SeungWoo Choi 0 9 of 15 60% 9 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Steve Garcia 15 of 27 55% 10 of 19 2 of 5 3 of 3 9 of 19 1 of 2 5 of 6
SeungWoo Choi 9 of 15 60% 7 of 13 0 of 0 2 of 2 9 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Steve Garcia 15 of 27 55% 10 of 19 2 of 5 3 of 3 9 of 19 1 of 2 5 of 6
SeungWoo Choi 9 of 15 60% 7 of 13 0 of 0 2 of 2 9 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Seung Woo Choi vs. Steve Garcia
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Garcia (-148), Choi (+124)

Round 1
Finding himself in the unexpected situation of serving as the co-main event after the cancelation of Brad Tavares vs. Jun Yong Park, “Mean Machine” Garcia (15-5, 4-2 UFC) is ready to rise the occasion and lock down his fourth win in a row. The Jackson-Wink fighter will try to hand Choi (11-6, 4-5 UFC) his fourth loss in five fights, and the two featherweights will likely meet in the middle and throw down. When they do, referee Herb Dean will be hanging on tight. There is a touch of gloves, and Garcia is the initial aggressor as he gets into the center of the cage and lands a stomp kick to the knee. Garcia ducks back to avoid two looping hooks, only to race forward and bump into Choi’s forehead to tie him up. Garcia ties up a leg but is unable to put the South Korean down, and when Choi escapes, he throws hands. Garcia welcomes the exchange, and when things settle down, he lands another kick to the knee. Choi chambers and fires a low kick that puts Garcia down to a knee, and Garcia climbs back up and gets swept with another kick. Garcia wades forward, thinks about throwing a front kick and lets it go to stand and bang. Stand and bang is exactly what “Mean Machine” does, rocking Choi and getting clipped in a destructive exchange.
Garcia lands the cleaner of the blows as he continues to slug it out, and he knocks Choi off-balance with a left hand and floors him with another bomb of a left. Choi turns to his side and then knees in an effort to shell up and survive, but Garcia is a man possessed at getting the win. Garcia stings “Sting” repeatedly with hammerfists, raining down a seemingly unending onslaught of fists until Dean has no choice but to stop the fight.
Choi looks up at Dean quizzically as blood streams from his mouth, and Garcia runs to the cage wall to scream and then scales it to shout even louder. This is a big moment for Garcia, who has now picked up four straight knockout victories. The triumphant Garcia calls for an MMA fight against Dan Ige, a popular name lately, while also calling out commentator Daniel Cormier for a golf match.

The Official Result
Steve Garcia def. Seung Woo Choi R1 1:36 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 14, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Steve Garcia

Angelo picks Steve Garcia because he is sneaky good with five UFC wins all by KO/TKO. He believes Garcia's striking and wrestling are there, and that Choi Seung-woo has been finished before. He has placed a bet on Garcia at -140 and expects the line to move.

bet placed at -140
"Steve Garcia is the pick I got a nice little bet on him at minus 140"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jul 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Steve Garcia

Cody also picks Garcia but with less confidence, noting Garcia's own durability issues and the fact that both fighters have been dropped. He sees the fight as close to 50/50 and suggests taking Choi if plus money is available. He emphasizes the under 2.5 rounds as the best bet, expecting a violent finish.

"I got one guy that's on a three-fight winning streak... I got to get the guy in the three-fight winning streak."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Steve Garcia

Daniel Vreeland picks Steve Garcia by knockout, comparing the fight to a coin flip but ultimately choosing Garcia. He notes both fighters have high knockdown rates and can be dropped, but Garcia's size (6'0", 75" reach) and recent form (5 knockdowns in last 3 fights) give him the edge. He expects a stand-up war ending in a Garcia knockout.

by KO
"heads we're gonna go with Steve Garcia here to uh drop Troy a couple times and then all out War"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jul 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Steve Garcia

Garcia is a -140 favorite. He relies on his knockout power and has a three-fight KO streak. Choi is more technical but has been finished before. Garcia can survive early pressure and land a big shot to get the KO. I prefer Garcia by knockout rather than moneyline, as his KO line is around +130.

Garcia by knockout
"I would rather Garcia by knockout rather than Garcia moneyline at minus 140"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Steve Garcia

Paul likes Garcia's momentum and power, noting his three-fight winning streak with five knockdowns. He questions Choi's durability, pointing out Choi has been knocked down five times in his last three fights. Paul thinks Garcia's power is the difference and expects a knockout, though he acknowledges both have shaky chins.

"I think it's Steve all day here."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Steve Garcia

The MMA Guru picks Steve Garcia, noting he has doubted Garcia before but he keeps winning. He highlights Garcia's recent finishes over Malik El Kousa, Shannon Nurnbeck, and Chase Hooper, and his training at Jackson Wink. He points out Choi Seung-woo's questionable chin, getting wobbled in most fights, and believes Garcia's power and size at 145 will be too much.

"I'm gonna go with um Steve Garcia I've doubted Steve Garcia enough"
KO (elbows) R2 1:01 · UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez · Dec 09, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Steve Garcia 1 29 of 49 59% 41 of 66 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:46
Melquizael Costa 0 6 of 10 60% 20 of 25 2 of 10 20% 0 0 4:41
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Steve Garcia 0 4 of 11 36% 12 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Melquizael Costa 0 5 of 7 71% 19 of 22 2 of 9 22% 0 0 4:41
2 Steve Garcia 1 25 of 38 65% 29 of 43 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:46
Melquizael Costa 0 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Steve Garcia 29 of 49 59% 26 of 45 2 of 3 1 of 1 4 of 10 3 of 8 22 of 31
Melquizael Costa 6 of 10 60% 1 of 5 2 of 2 3 of 3 2 of 3 4 of 7 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Steve Garcia 4 of 11 36% 3 of 9 1 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 7 1 of 4 0 of 0
Melquizael Costa 5 of 7 71% 0 of 2 2 of 2 3 of 3 1 of 2 4 of 5 0 of 0
2 Steve Garcia 25 of 38 65% 23 of 36 1 of 1 1 of 1 1 of 3 2 of 4 22 of 31
Melquizael Costa 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 2 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Melquizael Costa vs. Steve Garcia
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Costa (-275), Garcia (+225)

Round 1
The predominant method of victory for these two fighters—now competing at lightweight due to the short-notice nature of their rescheduled pairing—is the knockout. Referee Chris Tognoni should don his hard hat before going out against these two sluggers. “Mean Machine” Garcia (14-5, 3-2 UFC) has performed his last six victories via strikes, while LFA vet Costa (20-6, 1-1 UFC) has earned two of his last three wins by knockout. Before the fists fly, they meet together in a sporting manner. Garcia springs forward, but he pulls back before engaging. On his second advance, Garcia throws caution to the wind, winging big punches. Costa shimmies to the side and allows Garcia to push past him, and he hooks his leg around Garcia’s and tries to drag him down to the floor. Costa elects to lift Garcia up and slam him to the mat, but “Mean Machine” moves back up to his feet quickly. Costa clings to Garcia from behind relentlessly, and Garcia tries to defend with no-look elbows. Costa knees Garcia in the backside and upper thigh as he pressures his man, and Garcia responds with elbows on the thigh. Costa whips Garcia to a knee, and Garcia considers grabbing the fence but at the last second just points at it. Costa forces his man down to a knee again, but Garcia springs up with no ill effects. Costa continues to embrace the grind from behind, shutting down any offense from Garcia and forcing him to spend energy in strange exchanges. When Costa looks to get a hook in, Garcia shucks it off. Costa peppers with knees until scooping Garcia up and dumping him down once more. Garcia powers back upright, and he wiggles and wriggles but cannot escape. Costa trips Garcia out but is unable to keep him grounded for more than a second, and he stays in this position until the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Costa

Round 2
Garcia comes out of his corner angrily, and he swings violently and connects with a few of his shots. Costa responds as the two engage in a mad brawl, with punches and elbows flailing in all directions. Garcia wings a left and a right, catching Costa and knocking him down to the canvas. “Mean Machine” follows him to the mat and drives down a vicious elbow, splitting Costa wide open, and Costa is in a bad way. Garcia smashes his man with fists and sharp elbows, and blood sprays around the canvas. Costa turns over and gives up his back, and Garcia snatches up a rear-naked choke. Perhaps due to the blood flow, Costa is able to slide out of the choke and turns to his back.
Garcia postures up, in full mount, and he demolishes “Melky” with three ruthless elbows. Tognoni halts the fight, with Costa out or very nearly out.
When Garcia dismounts his defeated adversary, Costa tries to take Tognoni down, and he is deep in on a single. Tognoni displays excellent takedown defense as officials flood the cage, with one very loud shouting at Costa to wake him back up. Costa realizes that he is trying to take down a referee and that the fight is over, and he surrenders.

The Official Result
Steve Garcia def. Melquizael Costa R2 1:01 via KO (Elbows)
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Melquizael Costa

Cody picks Melquizael Costa. He notes that Costa is a volume puncher and Garcia is a knockout-or-bust fighter. Cody points out that Garcia has poor defense and gets rocked in his wins and losses. He thinks Costa's volume and durability will be key. Cody is suspicious that the line hasn't moved despite Garcia pulling out last week due to illness and moving up a weight class. He still favors Costa.

"I like Costa I'm playing Costa cost going to be high up there but it almost favors a little bit Garcia a little bit better"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Melquizael Costa

Paul picks Melquizael Costa. He notes that he liked Costa last week and nothing has changed. Paul points out that Garcia has a history of missing weight and was sick last week, but now fights at lightweight without cutting weight. He thinks Garcia's power is a threat but Costa's volume and durability should win out. Paul is not taking Garcia just because of the circumstances.

"him getting sick and pulling out of a fight last week did not cause me to change my pick this week to suddenly take him so no no not taking Steve Garcia gonna stick with M Costa"
KO (body kick and punches) R2 0:36 · UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2 · Apr 08, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Steve Garcia 1 18 of 35 51% 31 of 63 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:34
Shayilan Nuerdanbieke 1 17 of 40 42% 50 of 77 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Steve Garcia 1 16 of 32 50% 29 of 60 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:33
Shayilan Nuerdanbieke 0 6 of 23 26% 39 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
2 Steve Garcia 0 2 of 3 66% 2 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Shayilan Nuerdanbieke 1 11 of 17 64% 11 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Steve Garcia 18 of 35 51% 15 of 31 3 of 4 0 of 0 8 of 16 0 of 0 10 of 19
Shayilan Nuerdanbieke 17 of 40 42% 14 of 37 3 of 3 0 of 0 12 of 35 1 of 1 4 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Steve Garcia 16 of 32 50% 13 of 29 3 of 3 0 of 0 6 of 13 0 of 0 10 of 19
Shayilan Nuerdanbieke 6 of 23 26% 5 of 22 1 of 1 0 of 0 6 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Steve Garcia 2 of 3 66% 2 of 2 0 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Shayilan Nuerdanbieke 11 of 17 64% 9 of 15 2 of 2 0 of 0 6 of 12 1 of 1 4 of 4
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Steve Garcia vs. Nuerdanbieke Shayilan
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Nuerdanbieke (-200), Garcia (+170)

Round 1
Moving right along, this next fight takes place in the featherweight category. Fresh off some sort of controversy from his last match with Darrick Minner – you can look it up – Shayilan (39-10, 3-1 UFC) wants to move on from that messiness and keep his win streak going. In his 50th professional MMA bout at the tender age of 28, Shayilan battles Garcia (13-5, 2-2 UFC), who has been on the giving and receiving ends of rough knockouts as of late. Before the fists fly, referee Larry Folsom clocks them in, and the fighters do not elect to touch gloves first. Garcia goes after a front kick, but Shayilan is well out of the way. Shayilan intercepts a kick to land a solid one-two, and Garcia pushes off with a front kick that slams into the cup. Folsom sees this and pauses the action immediately. After a little under a minute, Shayilan clears his pain and discomfort and is good to go. They crash together with big punches, and Shayilan backs off to coil back his big right hand. Garcia rushes in, and Shayilan unloads it, blasting Garcia in the face and sending him crumpling to the mat. Shayilan looks to finish the job with a barrage of punches, but Garcia ties him up and holds on to clear his wits. Shayilan postures up to nail Garcia with an elbow, and Garcia scoots his way back to the fencing. Garcia wall-walks to stand back up, and Shayilan drags him back to a knee in short order. Shayilan sneaks around to take the back of “Mean Machine,” and Garcia slides back into the clinch and pushes the Chinese fighter to the wire. Shayilan throws him to the mat and slashes down with an elbow, and he lowers himself into the guard. Garcia hangs on from on bottom to quell the bludgeoning, and Shayilan methodically opens up every so often to connect with a solid shot. Garcia works his way back up and bursts to his feet, and he has busted Shayilan open with his own strikes. Garcia rushes out, pushing the pace on “Wolverine” and unloading with a few punches. Garcia belts Shayilan in the face, stunning him and forcing Shayilan to shoot for a desperation takedown. Garcia, from his back, kicks a downed Shayilan in the face illegally, and the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Shayilan
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Shayilan
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Shayilan

Round 2
Garcia is amped up to start off the second round, rushing after the Chinese competitor and throwing bombs. Shayilan ducks down, and Garcia times a perfect kick that smashes Shayilan in the face and relocates his nose. Sensing that his opponent is in big, big trouble, Garcia unleashes a high kick, a right hand and a left that knock Shayilan back to the wall.
Garcia digs a stabbing, toe-first kick to the liver, and he punches the exact same spot, and “Wolverine” crumples to the mat. Any subsequent ground-and-pound is purely academic, and “Mean Machine” hammers the nail with a couple follow-up punches.
This is a mighty comeback for Garcia, who got cracked at the beginning of the fight and recovered to come on strong and pull off the solid stoppage.

The Official Result
Steve Garcia def. Nuerdanbieke Shayilan R2 0:36 via KO (Body Kick and Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Shayilan Nuerdanbieke

Angelo picks Shayilan Nuerdanbieke but is hesitant to bet because of his low volume output. He notes that Shayilan is a powerful grappler with a bully style, but Steve Garcia is a high-volume striker who could steal rounds if Shayilan doesn't push the pace early. He is waiting for significant strike prop bets to drop, as he believes Steve Garcia will land more significant strikes even if Shayilan wins.

significant strikes prop (Steve Garcia to land more)
"I think shylon wins this fight the problem is the only thing that's preventing me from betting the hell out of shylon is he's a low volume guy"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Shayilan Nuerdanbieke

Big Brady picks Shayilan Nuerdanbieke due to his wrestling advantage and durability concerns with Steve Garcia. He notes Garcia has been dropped multiple times in recent fights, questioning his chin. He believes Nuerdanbieke can mix takedowns and control the fight, potentially winning by decision or even knocking out Garcia. He predicts a decision win for Nuerdanbieke.

"I'll say Charlie on by decision I'll say he does mixing the takedowns it's what he does best"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Steve Garcia

Cody also picks Garcia, agreeing with Paul's reasoning. He notes Garcia's improvements and power, and that Nuerdanbieke's wrestling may not be enough to control Garcia. Cody mentions that Garcia has never been taken down in the UFC. He is cautious but sees value at +155. He says he took a shot on Garcia but warns it's a risky bet.

"at plus 155 Steve will be the pick for me as well"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Shayilan Nuerdanbieke

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Nuerdanbieke. He notes that Garcia is fun and dangerous but his path to win leads him into his opponent's offense.

"I'm fine with the odds getting a little closer. Like I, I have always said Garcia is a better fighter than his record shows..."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Shayilan Nuerdanbieke

Jacob is confident in Shayilan, noting that he trusts his chin more and believes he has the wrestling to slow down Steve Garcia's pressure. He thinks Garcia will come out aggressively, but Shayilan can counter him or take him down. He mentions that Garcia gets dropped often, so Shayilan has a good chance of a knockout. However, he wouldn't bet it because Garcia is a dangerous opponent who risks it all.

"I trust shylon's chin uh more and he's got the wrestling in this back pocket to kind of slow everything down"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Apr 3, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Shayilan Nuerdanbieke

Nuerdanbieke uses his stocky frame to grind opponents with takedowns and top pressure, but his striking is wild and he slows down. Garcia has knockout power and unorthodox angles, but his consistency is questionable. I'm skeptical but think the grappling-heavy fighter is the smarter pick, though I have low confidence due to Garcia's power and unknowns.

"I am going to pick that as my prediction though as I think that usually it's smarter to go with the Garoppolo heavy fighter but there are so many question marks on the Steve Garcia side"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Steve Garcia

Paul picks Garcia but with very low confidence. He notes Garcia's tendency to run into punches and get dropped, but believes Nuerdanbieke is not a power puncher and relies on wrestling. Paul argues that Garcia has good takedown defense and power, and that Nuerdanbieke's low striking output could lead to a decision loss if he can't hold Garcia down. He also mentions the Florida crowd may favor Garcia's aggression. He calls it a 'fool pick of the week' and warns not to bet much.

"I will take Steve Garcia and it may be the PRP pick all the way at the bottom zero confidence in this fight whatsoever"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2023 (fight day)
Shayilan Nuerdanbieke

The MMA Guru picks Shayilan Nuerdanbieke to win by 29-28 decision. He expects Nuerdanbieke to get a takedown in the first round, control the grappling, and mix in strikes. He thinks Garcia will have some success on the feet in the third round but not enough to overcome the earlier rounds. The prediction is detailed with round-by-round scenarios.

"I'm gonna go with by 29-28 decision"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Shayilan Nuerdanbieke

Zane picks Nuerdanbieke because Garcia has terrible wrestling defense and Nuerdanbieke is persistent and strong. He notes that Nuerdanbieke will work hard and take Garcia down, which is too much of a hole for Garcia to overcome.

"I got to pick him. He's very persistent and he's super strong too, which sets up for a lot of his technical shortcomings."
WIN vs Chase Hooper
TKO (punches) R1 1:32 · UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Allen · Oct 29, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Steve Garcia 0 10 of 30 33% 10 of 32 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Chase Hooper 3 29 of 44 65% 31 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:17
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Steve Garcia 0 10 of 30 33% 10 of 32 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Chase Hooper 3 29 of 44 65% 31 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:17
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Steve Garcia 10 of 30 33% 7 of 25 2 of 4 1 of 1 10 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
Chase Hooper 29 of 44 65% 19 of 33 7 of 8 3 of 3 26 of 40 0 of 0 3 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Steve Garcia 10 of 30 33% 7 of 25 2 of 4 1 of 1 10 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
Chase Hooper 29 of 44 65% 19 of 33 7 of 8 3 of 3 26 of 40 0 of 0 3 of 4
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Steve Garcia vs. Chase Hooper

Round 1
The quintessential “striker vs. grappler” label certainly applies to this next pairing at 145 pounds, when the submission-minded Hooper (11-2-1, 3-2 UFC) comes to blows with “Mean Machine” Garcia (12-5, 1-2 UFC). The third man in the cage for this fight that could end suddenly is referee Herb Dean, and he prepares himself should he need to step in. The fighters touch gloves, and Hooper is immediately the aggressor. He walks into a few punches from Garcia, and Hooper is stung in a hurry. Garcia follows a combination with a knee, and Hooper shakes it off and backs off. Garcia sets him down with a left hand, and he does not follow him down. When Hooper stands back up, “Mean Machine” blasts him with another left hand, and Hooper hits the mat for the third time in under a minute. The youngster Hooper keeps his wits about him and works his way back up, and Garcia is not about to let him off the hook. Hooper flails and spins with a back fist, but the power of Garcia is vastly more significant.
The Jackson-Wink fighter chains together a right to the body and a left to the head, and “The Dream” becomes a nightmare as he crumples to the mat from a thudding left hand. While he might still be able to keep going, Dean recognizes that the last knockdown was a bad one as Hooper’s face is busted and swelling fast. The onslaught has ripped open Hooper's left eyebrow to leak blood in the young man's eye, and it does not take more than a few mean hammerfists from “Mean Machine” to prompt Dean’s intervention.
This was largely one-way traffic for Garcia, who registered an instant contender for “Beatdown of the Year” by demolishing the 23-year-old in a hair over 90 seconds.

The Official Result
Steve Garcia def. Chase Hooper R1 1:32 via TKO (Punches)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Chase Hooper

Big Brady picks Chase Hooper to win by second-round TKO. He highlights Hooper's improved wrestling and striking, and his dangerous ground game, noting that Hooper finished the tough Felipe Colares in his last fight. He contrasts Garcia's sketchy chin and poor grappling defense, referencing Garcia's fight against Luis Pena where he was controlled for 14 minutes. Brady believes Hooper will get the fight to the mat and finish Garcia.

Hooper wins by second-round TKO
"I like Cooper to win this fight inside the distance I'll say like a second round like a TKO for Chase super"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 26, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Chase Hooper

Cody picks Chase Hooper, noting his improvements in wrestling and striking, and his physical maturity. He criticizes Steve Garcia's poor chin, striking defense, and lack of X-factor. Cody expects Hooper to take Garcia down, backpack him with a body triangle, and finish with ground and pound. He likes Hooper by knockout at +475.

Hooper by knockout at +475
"Chase by knockout plus 475 that's what I'm in on this one I think Chase Hooper's got a good chance to go out there to take this fight to the ground dominate the exact same way and just pile up …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 27, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Chase Hooper

Connor picks Hooper confidently, highlighting his improved understanding of MMA grappling and his aggressive ground and pound. He notes that Garcia's game is built on getting to the pocket and taking people down, which will give Hooper opportunities to wrap him up and do damage. Connor compares it to Garcia's fight against Luis Pena, but with more damage coming back.

Same odds commentary as Zane.
"This will be that pain you fight, but with a lot more damage coming back."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Oct 26, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Chase Hooper

Daniel Levi picks Chase Hooper, citing his heart, improvement, and grappling skills. He notes Garcia's weight issues and recent KO losses. He references the Luis Pena fight where Pena backpacked Garcia, giving confidence in Hooper's grappling. He is not interested in laying -260.

"I'm gonna go with Chase super here I'm just not in any kind of Rush delay a price like minus 250 on him."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Chase Hooper

Jacob is very confident in Chase Hooper, citing his improved striking, toughness, and elite grappling. He notes Steve Garcia gets dropped often and has chin issues, and if Garcia wrestles, that plays into Hooper's strengths. Jacob sees a potential TKO or submission for Hooper.

inside the distance for Chase Hooper
"my official pick is Chase Hooper I love him in this matchup"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Oct 27, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Chase Hooper

Hooper is a jiu-jitsu ace but his striking is still developing. Garcia has power but poor takedown defense and can be controlled against the cage. Hooper should be able to take Garcia down and work for a submission, similar to Luis Pena's performance. However, the heavy chalk on Hooper is concerning given his past struggles. The submission prop at +250 is appealing.

Hooper by submission +250
"I still get a little queasy thinking about taking Chase super at this type of chalk but this still seems like a spot he should go out there control the majority of the fight until he can eventually lock up …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 26, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Chase Hooper

Paul picks Chase Hooper but is hesitant to bet at -300. He notes Hooper's youth and development, but is concerned about his wrestling and stand-up still being works in progress. Paul says he will pick Hooper for the show but may not bet him.

"I'm gonna pick them for the purposes of this show but I don't know how I really get there from a betting perspective"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Chase Hooper

The MMA Guru picks Chase Hooper over Steve Garcia, impressed by Hooper's last performance where he gassed out and finished Felipe Colares. He notes Hooper's grappling pace and ability to drown opponents on the ground. He believes Garcia, coming off a brutal KO loss, will struggle with Hooper's pressure and that Hooper will win by 29-28 decision, losing the first but winning the last two rounds.

"I'm going with Chase Hooper here I've doubted him at times in his career but I must admit... after his last performance it was so impressive"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 27, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Chase Hooper

Zane picks Hooper confidently, noting his huge improvements in striking and grappling aggression. He describes Hooper as a super technical grappler who now uses ground and pound effectively. Zane argues that Garcia's style of pushing into the pocket and clinching plays directly into Hooper's strengths, and that Garcia is not a great athlete, making him vulnerable to Hooper's submissions and control.

Hooper opened -185 now -267, Garcia opened +159 now +214.
"Chase Hooper is going to make that really apparent."
Expert Picks (1)
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Lean picked Jun 3, 2026 (11 days before fight)
Steve Garcia

AJ is leaning towards Steve Garcia, citing Garcia's terrifying hands and cardio to go three hard rounds. He thinks Garcia could outstrike Lopes and notes that Lopes is not a grapple smotherer, making it hard for him to control Garcia. He also mentions Garcia's chin and finishing ability.

"I think I'm gonna end up going Steve Garcia. I won't lie to you guys."