vs
-325 +275
UFC on ESPN: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · Dec 02, 2023 · Lightweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC on ESPN: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan Next Fight
Age 37
Height 5' 8"
Reach 69.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Age 44
Height 5' 7"
Reach 70.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Joaquim Silva
3.43 SLpM
43.0% Str. Acc.
4.17 SApM
53.0% Str. Def.
0.34 TD Avg
50.0% TD Acc.
70.0% TD Def.
0.8 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Clay Guida
2.63 SLpM
33.0% Str. Acc.
3.0 SApM
61.0% Str. Def.
3.1 TD Avg
35.0% TD Acc.
66.0% TD Def.
0.6 Sub. Avg
Joaquim Silva
Moneyline
BetWay -325
KO/TKO
BetRivers +230
Submission
BetRivers +350
Decision
FanDuel +260
Clay Guida
Moneyline
BetMGM +275
KO/TKO
BetMGM +900
Submission
BetWay +1600
Decision
BetRivers +600
Joaquim Silva - Fight History
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · Sep 13, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Claudio Puelles 0 21 of 63 33% 58 of 102 4 of 16 25% 0 0 7:25
Joaquim Silva 1 25 of 66 37% 95 of 136 0 of 0 --- 1 0 1:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Claudio Puelles 0 3 of 8 37% 37 of 44 2 of 3 66% 0 0 4:22
Joaquim Silva 0 0 of 4 0% 29 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Claudio Puelles 0 6 of 31 19% 6 of 31 1 of 5 20% 0 0 0:55
Joaquim Silva 0 11 of 29 37% 13 of 31 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:18
3 Claudio Puelles 0 12 of 24 50% 15 of 27 1 of 8 12% 0 0 2:08
Joaquim Silva 1 14 of 33 42% 53 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:45
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Claudio Puelles 21 of 63 33% 14 of 56 7 of 7 0 of 0 16 of 56 2 of 2 3 of 5
Joaquim Silva 25 of 66 37% 12 of 50 9 of 12 4 of 4 19 of 52 3 of 5 3 of 9
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Claudio Puelles 3 of 8 37% 3 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 3 0 of 0 3 of 5
Joaquim Silva 0 of 4 0% 0 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Claudio Puelles 6 of 31 19% 3 of 28 3 of 3 0 of 0 6 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
Joaquim Silva 11 of 29 37% 2 of 18 5 of 7 4 of 4 11 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Claudio Puelles 12 of 24 50% 8 of 20 4 of 4 0 of 0 10 of 22 2 of 2 0 of 0
Joaquim Silva 14 of 33 42% 10 of 28 4 of 5 0 of 0 8 of 19 3 of 5 3 of 9
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Sep 7, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Claudio Puelles

Angelo is torn on this fight. He calls Puelles a 'butt scooter' who looks like a puppy cleaning a dingleberry, but acknowledges his takedowns looked improved in his last fight. He says if Puelles' takedowns look as good as they did last time, he wins. He admits his gut won't let him say it out loud, but he's leaning Puelles. He notes Silva is a BJJ guy with big power and explosive striking, always looking for the knockout.

"I'm not going to say it. I'm going to think it. I'm going to write it down on the website. I can't say it with my own words, but that's the direction we're going with this fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Sep 11, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Joaquim Silva

Big Brady leans toward Silva because Puelles is one-dimensional and has no plan B if his grappling fails. He notes Silva has a BJJ base, power on the feet, and has hurt top competition. He predicts Silva wins by second-round knockout, as Puelles has been knocked out before and Silva has the power to do it.

Second round knockout
"I'm going to take Silva to win this fight by second round knockout."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Joaquim Silva

Silva is a big fan favorite and the host is surprised he is an underdog. He notes Silva has never been submitted and has a striking advantage. He expects Silva to fend off takedowns, walk Puelles down, and win by knockout in the second or third round.

win by knockout in second or third round
"I think he'll be able to fend off the takedowns from Puyus. Walk Pyus down on the feet and eventually on Cork knockout either in the second or third round."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Joaquim Silva

The MMA Guru picks Joaquim Silva, expressing disdain for Claudio Puelles' jiu-jitsu style. He describes Silva as a strong, powerful, explosive lightweight who can cause problems on the feet. He criticizes Puelles as a 'martial artist, not a fighter' and recalls his quit against Dan Hooker. He believes Silva's power will be a big factor.

"I can't pick Clauddio Poles to win a fight. Can't do it. ... I'm going to go with Wim Silva."
LOSS vs Drakkar Klose
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · May 04, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Drakkar Klose 1 59 of 93 63% 143 of 179 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:55
Joaquim Silva 0 70 of 123 56% 96 of 151 0 of 7 0% 0 0 5:33
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Drakkar Klose 0 20 of 30 66% 25 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Joaquim Silva 0 29 of 54 53% 35 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:20
2 Drakkar Klose 0 15 of 20 75% 79 of 86 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:13
Joaquim Silva 0 17 of 23 73% 35 of 43 0 of 4 0% 0 0 3:58
3 Drakkar Klose 1 24 of 43 55% 39 of 58 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:41
Joaquim Silva 0 24 of 46 52% 26 of 48 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:15
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Drakkar Klose 59 of 93 63% 25 of 53 21 of 27 13 of 13 33 of 63 22 of 26 4 of 4
Joaquim Silva 70 of 123 56% 40 of 82 22 of 30 8 of 11 44 of 91 26 of 32 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Drakkar Klose 20 of 30 66% 6 of 14 7 of 9 7 of 7 15 of 23 5 of 7 0 of 0
Joaquim Silva 29 of 54 53% 18 of 36 8 of 12 3 of 6 19 of 41 10 of 13 0 of 0
2 Drakkar Klose 15 of 20 75% 3 of 6 10 of 12 2 of 2 6 of 11 9 of 9 0 of 0
Joaquim Silva 17 of 23 73% 5 of 9 11 of 13 1 of 1 4 of 8 13 of 15 0 of 0
3 Drakkar Klose 24 of 43 55% 16 of 33 4 of 6 4 of 4 12 of 29 8 of 10 4 of 4
Joaquim Silva 24 of 46 52% 17 of 37 3 of 5 4 of 4 21 of 42 3 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 28, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Drakkar Klose

Angelo picks Klose as the more technical and well-rounded fighter with multiple paths to victory. He notes Silva's power makes him live but Klose is durable. He mentions Klose's neck injury from a weigh-in shove but says he hasn't looked different since.

"jakar Clos is a guy that you can trust"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Drakkar Klose

Big Brady likes Klose's well-rounded game, including cardio, volume, takedowns, and BJJ. He questions Silva's durability and notes his knockout loss to Ricky Glenn. He predicts Klose will land a big shot and finish Silva by third-round knockout.

"I'm taking close to win this fight by third round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Drakkar Klose

Cody picks Klose, citing his superior wrestling, durability, and fresher fight miles. He notes Silva is a brawler with durability issues and has been knocked out by lesser fighters. Cody expects Klose to break Silva down and finish late.

Klose by KO/TKO in round 3
"Late stoppage close is what I would look at... I think close just breaks them down systematically and then takes them out late."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Joaquim Silva

Daniel Vreeland leans with Silva, citing his one-punch power and the home crowd advantage in Brazil. He acknowledges Klose's physicality and close-fight history but is not confident enough to lay the -175 price. He notes Silva's slow starts but believes he can land a big shot or edge a decision in Brazil.

"I'll lean with uh with the underdog with yoim Silva"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 3, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Drakkar Klose

Klose is the more complete fighter, utilizing striking and takedowns to outwork Silva. Silva is dangerous with early knockout power, but Klose's chin should hold up. Klose wins by decision.

"give me close and close by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Drakkar Klose

Paul picks Klose, noting his level of competition and ability to avoid big shots. He believes Silva is knockout-or-bust and Klose's volume and takedowns will win rounds. Paul expects Klose by decision or late stoppage.

Klose by decision
"Close late or by decision is how I see it... the volume adds up..."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Drakkar Klose

The MMA Guru picks Drakkar Klose by decision, citing his consistency, composure, and professional decision-making. He notes Klose's wins over Bobby Green and others, and believes he will outpoint Joaquim Silva with crisp kicks, jabs, and body work. He acknowledges Silva's potential in scrambles but trusts Klose's experience.

by decision
"I'm going to go with him by decision here"
WIN vs Clay Guida
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · Dec 02, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Joaquim Silva 0 43 of 134 32% 63 of 155 2 of 11 18% 0 0 4:23
Clay Guida 0 46 of 91 50% 85 of 141 2 of 3 66% 2 0 2:35
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Joaquim Silva 0 18 of 64 28% 19 of 66 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:29
Clay Guida 0 15 of 32 46% 40 of 65 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:39
2 Joaquim Silva 0 14 of 33 42% 29 of 48 2 of 7 28% 0 0 3:19
Clay Guida 0 15 of 20 75% 26 of 34 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:31
3 Joaquim Silva 0 11 of 37 29% 15 of 41 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:35
Clay Guida 0 16 of 39 41% 19 of 42 1 of 2 50% 1 0 1:25
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Joaquim Silva 43 of 134 32% 19 of 103 14 of 20 10 of 11 36 of 127 7 of 7 0 of 0
Clay Guida 46 of 91 50% 33 of 72 9 of 15 4 of 4 28 of 64 15 of 19 3 of 8
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Joaquim Silva 18 of 64 28% 6 of 51 6 of 6 6 of 7 17 of 63 1 of 1 0 of 0
Clay Guida 15 of 32 46% 13 of 30 0 of 0 2 of 2 8 of 20 4 of 5 3 of 7
2 Joaquim Silva 14 of 33 42% 9 of 26 5 of 7 0 of 0 11 of 30 3 of 3 0 of 0
Clay Guida 15 of 20 75% 12 of 17 3 of 3 0 of 0 7 of 9 8 of 10 0 of 1
3 Joaquim Silva 11 of 37 29% 4 of 26 3 of 7 4 of 4 8 of 34 3 of 3 0 of 0
Clay Guida 16 of 39 41% 8 of 25 6 of 12 2 of 2 13 of 35 3 of 4 0 of 0
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 29, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Joaquim Silva

Cody picks Silva, echoing that Guida is old and Silva has power. He thinks Silva's takedown defense is okay and his cardio is decent. He notes Guida's only path is takedowns and Silva can stuff them. He also mentions a Clay Guida by split decision prop as a possible sprinkle.

considering Clay Guida by split decision prop
"wae Sila would be the pick I suppose for whatever that's worth"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Joaquim Silva

Lucrative James picks Joaquim Silva, noting that Silva showed enough in his last fight to be favored. He believes Silva can get a submission, possibly a guillotine when Clay Guida shoots for a takedown. However, he is not betting at -350 due to Guida's grappling ability and durability.

Silva inside the distance, possibly by submission
"I definitely feel like he could get a submission Guillotine here when Clay is shooting in on a Tak down"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Joaquim Silva

Silva is a powerful striker with a BJJ black belt, and he should be able to land big shots on Guida if he lets his hands go. Guida relies on movement and cardio, but Silva's power and pressure could lead to a finish. However, if the fight reaches the third round, Guida's cardio could make things competitive. Silva is expected to win, possibly by finish.

finish predicted, but not confident inside distance
"I'm going to go waim Silva I think he gets the Finish over Guida but if this fight reaches the third round things could get a little bit shaky"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 29, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Joaquim Silva

Paul picks Silva but doesn't love the money line. He thinks Silva's takedown defense is decent and his cardio is good enough to outlast Guida. He notes Guida is almost 42 and slowing down, and if Guida can't get takedowns early, he'll get boxed up. He considers a Clay Guida by split decision prop as a sprinkle.

considering Clay Guida by split decision prop
"the pick's got to be Yim Silva"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 28, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Joaquim Silva

The MMA Guru picks Joaquim Silva, citing his power, jiujitsu, and finishing ability. He notes that Clay Guida tends to lose to fighters with finishing ability and that Silva is dangerous. He believes Silva's technical skills outweigh Guida's grit and expects Silva to win.

"I got to go Joaquim Silva... dangerous powerful good jiujitsu... if you have finishing ability you beat Clay Guida."
LOSS vs Arman Tsarukyan
TKO (punches) R3 3:25 · UFC on ESPN: Vettori vs. Cannonier · Jun 17, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Arman Tsarukyan 0 80 of 115 69% 134 of 175 4 of 5 80% 0 0 9:01
Joaquim Silva 0 23 of 41 56% 77 of 96 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Arman Tsarukyan 0 12 of 13 92% 28 of 29 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:26
Joaquim Silva 0 2 of 3 66% 27 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Arman Tsarukyan 0 33 of 57 57% 39 of 63 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:47
Joaquim Silva 0 16 of 30 53% 41 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Arman Tsarukyan 0 35 of 45 77% 67 of 83 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:48
Joaquim Silva 0 5 of 8 62% 9 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Arman Tsarukyan 80 of 115 69% 64 of 95 13 of 17 3 of 3 32 of 64 7 of 8 41 of 43
Joaquim Silva 23 of 41 56% 11 of 27 9 of 11 3 of 3 11 of 25 10 of 13 2 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Arman Tsarukyan 12 of 13 92% 9 of 10 3 of 3 0 of 0 2 of 3 1 of 1 9 of 9
Joaquim Silva 2 of 3 66% 1 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2
2 Arman Tsarukyan 33 of 57 57% 23 of 43 7 of 11 3 of 3 23 of 46 6 of 7 4 of 4
Joaquim Silva 16 of 30 53% 8 of 20 6 of 8 2 of 2 8 of 19 7 of 10 1 of 1
3 Arman Tsarukyan 35 of 45 77% 32 of 42 3 of 3 0 of 0 7 of 15 0 of 0 28 of 30
Joaquim Silva 5 of 8 62% 2 of 5 3 of 3 0 of 0 2 of 5 3 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lock picked Jun 11, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Angelo is extremely confident in Arman Tsarukyan, calling him a massive favorite. He expects Tsarukyan to dominate with relentless wrestling, avoiding Silva's submissions. Silva has knockout power but will be defending takedowns the entire time. Angelo says there is no reason to overcomplicate this pick.

"Armin is a minus 1100 favorite there is no reason to over complicate this armin's gonna dominate with the wrestling he's gonna avoid the submissions"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 10, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Big Brady picks Arman Tsarukyan to win by first-round knockout. He calls this an astronomical step down in competition for Tsarukyan, who has fought top-tier opponents like Islam Makhachev and Mateusz Gamrot. Brady believes Tsarukyan will get takedowns at will, as Silva's takedown defense and durability are poor. He expects a vicious finish, either by knockout on the feet or TKO via ground and pound, similar to Tsarukyan's win over Joel Alvarez. Brady questions why this fight was even made.

"I think saruki and not only wins this fight but wins it in uh vicious fashion and probably a first round finish."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 14, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Cody sees this as a massive step down for Tsarukyan, who has been fighting elite competition. He expects Tsarukyan to win easily, likely by TKO in the second round, as Tsarukyan has a traditional Russian grinding style that breaks down lesser opponents. He notes Silva is a banger with knockout power but poor takedown defense, and at 34, his skills aren't improving. Cody thinks Tsarukyan will take him down and finish him in the second round.

Tsarukyan wins in round 2 at +300; mentions prop hunting
"I would think in the second round he's not necessarily like I need to kill you in the first round as much as he's got that traditional Russian style where he's gonna grind on you and lean on you and …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jun 15, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Connor agrees with Zane, calling Tsarukyan a 'gimme matchup' for Silva. He highlights Tsarukyan's elite grappling and physicality, and notes that Silva's only path to victory is an early knockout. Connor is confident Tsarukyan will dominate with his wrestling and pressure.

"This is a gimme matchup, but to layup."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 15, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Daniel Levi picks Arman Tsarukyan to win by knockout in round one or two. He notes Tsarukyan's improved striking and power, and expects a dominant performance. He compares it to the Giagos fight where Tsarukyan finished quickly, rather than the Fiziev fight which was more competitive. He respects Silva but sees a clear mismatch.

knockout round 1, knockout round 2
"I like The Knockout round one for most of what I'm gonna put down on it and then some knockout round two"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 13, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Tsarukyan can dominate Silva anywhere and will finish him. He is a solid grappler with improving striking and cardio. Silva is a BJJ black belt but prefers striking and has been knocked out in recent fights. Tsarukyan should make an emphatic statement. The pick is Tsarukyan inside the distance rather than the heavy moneyline.

Tsarukyan inside the distance
"I'll be looking at that walk uh sarukian inside the distance line rather than taking the minus 1000... give me sarukin via KO"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 14, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Paul agrees Tsarukyan is a justifiable massive favorite, but he doesn't see an edge in betting the moneyline at -1000. He prefers to chase a prop or just avoid the fight entirely. He notes that Tsarukyan is 26, improving, and has gone five rounds before, while Silva is a banger with nothing to lose but likely gets taken down and finished.

suggests chasing a prop or avoiding the fight; mentions Tsarukyan by second round TKO
"you definitely gotta chase a prop here or just don't like I mean I probably just want that this fight at all because that's just not how I roll"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 13, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

The MMA Guru picks Arman Tsarukyan easily, calling it a straightforward matchup. He notes Silva has been KO'd by Ricky Glenn and Nazareno Malegarie, and hasn't had a first-round finish since 2014. He expects Tsarukyan to stay calm, out-strike Silva, and get a late TKO.

"I'm going to be going with Armand sarukian I reckon he wins this matchup pretty easily"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 15, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Zane sees this as a complete stylistic layup for Tsarukyan. He notes that Tsarukyan is one of the best wrestler-grapplers in the sport, while Silva is a dynamic but limited striker who struggles against physical pressure. Zane believes Tsarukyan will bully Silva on the feet and take him down at will, making Silva's only chance a flying knee in the first minute.

"It's a layup. Like it is a complete stylistic layup."
WIN vs Jesse Ronson
TKO (knee and punches) R2 3:08 · UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan · Oct 01, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Joaquim Silva 1 45 of 90 50% 51 of 96 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
Jesse Ronson 0 39 of 83 46% 39 of 83 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Joaquim Silva 0 20 of 41 48% 22 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Jesse Ronson 0 25 of 53 47% 25 of 53 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Joaquim Silva 1 25 of 49 51% 29 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Jesse Ronson 0 14 of 30 46% 14 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Joaquim Silva 45 of 90 50% 26 of 67 12 of 16 7 of 7 38 of 76 0 of 0 7 of 14
Jesse Ronson 39 of 83 46% 22 of 55 11 of 18 6 of 10 39 of 83 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Joaquim Silva 20 of 41 48% 13 of 31 3 of 6 4 of 4 20 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jesse Ronson 25 of 53 47% 12 of 32 9 of 14 4 of 7 25 of 53 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Joaquim Silva 25 of 49 51% 13 of 36 9 of 10 3 of 3 18 of 35 0 of 0 7 of 14
Jesse Ronson 14 of 30 46% 10 of 23 2 of 4 2 of 3 14 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Sep 28, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jesse Ronson

Cody picks Jesse Ronson as an underdog, citing his better striking and size advantage. He acknowledges Ronson looked bad in his last fight but attributes it to the illegal knee and layoff. He believes Ronson's counter-punching could knock out Silva, who has a questionable chin. He is not very confident but likes the plus money.

"I'm gonna take Jesse Ronson but uh yeah I think you like the PRP pick it might be like one line above the PRP pick"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Sep 28, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Joaquim Silva

Paul picks Joaquim Silva, but is not confident. He notes that both fighters are coming off losses and are in a 'kill or be killed' situation. He believes Silva has a slight grappling advantage and that Ronson looked poor in his last fight. He prefers the 'fight doesn't go to decision' prop as the best bet on this fight.

Fight doesn't go to decision -145
"I'll fade Canada I'll take joaquim Silva but I throw one more wrench in the middle but I think the best bet is fight doesn't go to decision by far on this fight"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 27, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Joaquim Silva

The MMA Guru picks Joaquim Silva, noting that Silva has fought better competition and is more reliable than Jesse Ronson. He mentions that Ronson is 'chokey' and has questionable split decision losses, while Silva has been training grappling extensively. He thinks Silva can win by submission or decision, but is not confident enough to bet on it.

"I think I'd pick Silva in that one. There's no way I would ever trust Jesse Ronson with any form of bet."
LOSS vs Ricky Glenn
KO (punches) R1 0:37 · UFC on ESPN: The Korean Zombie vs. Ige · Jun 19, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ricky Glenn 0 1 of 2 50% 1 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Joaquim Silva 2 10 of 17 58% 14 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ricky Glenn 0 1 of 2 50% 1 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Joaquim Silva 2 10 of 17 58% 14 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ricky Glenn 1 of 2 50% 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Joaquim Silva 10 of 17 58% 9 of 16 0 of 0 1 of 1 2 of 4 2 of 3 6 of 10
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ricky Glenn 1 of 2 50% 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Joaquim Silva 10 of 17 58% 9 of 16 0 of 0 1 of 1 2 of 4 2 of 3 6 of 10
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jun 16, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Joaquim Silva

Angelo picks Joaquim Silva, citing his knockout power and ability to close distance. He notes that Silva's power is always present and that he doesn't give up. However, he is hesitant due to the long layoff for both fighters. He does not have Silva in his DraftKings lineup and is not placing a money bet.

"joaquim silva wins this fight and joaquim silva is my pick."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jun 15, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Joaquim Silva

Big Brady is hesitant due to long layoffs for both fighters. He notes Silva hits hard and Glenn is hittable, but Glenn has never been knocked out. He expects Silva to land harder shots and win a decision, but recommends staying away from betting.

win by decision
"I'm going to say that you know silva does win a decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 16, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Joaquim Silva

Cody picks Silva, citing Silva's power and experience at 155 lbs. He notes Glenn's long layoff (almost 3 years) and move up in weight, which could be problematic. Silva's power and pressure should be too much for Glenn, who is not a big hitter.

"i would go with joakim silva but uh looking at the line which is 135"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 18, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Joaquim Silva

Daniel Levi picks Joaquim Silva, citing his power and durability. He notes that while Ricky Glenn has better technique, he is defensively vulnerable and marks up easily. He thinks Silva will bruise Glenn up and possibly get a knockout or decision. He also mentions Silva's black belt in jiu-jitsu as an additional threat.

"i'm going to go with joking silva man um and i'm not worried about the big layoff on either side"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Hesitant picked Jun 16, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Joaquim Silva

Jacob also picks Joaquim Silva, but with low confidence. He worries about Silva's cardio and notes that Silva's last loss was to a southpaw, and Ricky Glenn is also a southpaw. He sees both as counter punchers and expects a slow fight. He is not putting Silva in his lineup and would not bet on it.

monkey knife fight: less on Silva, less on Glenn (or less more)
"i'm going with silva but i'm not i don't feel good enough about it to put him in my lineup."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 17, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Joaquim Silva

The host is confident in Joaquim Silva, citing his heavy Muay Thai striking, power, and ability to capitalize on Ricky Glenn's wild, open striking. He notes Glenn's low takedown accuracy (13% in UFC) and that Silva has put cardio concerns to rest with third-round finishes. He expects Silva to land damaging blows and predicts a second-round knockout, as Glenn's durability may be tested by Silva's power. He mentions Silva's body work and that Glenn's layoff and hip surgery could be factors.

Fight doesn't go to decision at +160 mentioned as a bet; Silva by second-round knockout predicted
"i'll go with silva to win by a second round knockout"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 16, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Joaquim Silva

Paul picks Silva, agreeing with Cody. He notes Glenn's layoff and weight class change, and Silva's recent competition. Paul thinks Silva's power and durability will be key.

"i think i'm gonna go with joakim silva"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2021 (fight day)
Ricky Glenn

The MMA Guru picks Ricky Glenn to win by unanimous decision (30-27). He believes Glenn's size and strength will be too much for Joaquim Silva, despite Glenn moving up from featherweight. He expects Glenn to land good shots on the feet early, mix in takedowns, and use his range with kicks. He thinks Silva won't have the strength to deal with Glenn's pressure and grappling.

"i'm gonna go over rick glenn here... 30-27 unanimous decision"
KO (punches) R2 0:36 · UFC on ESPN: Covington vs. Lawler · Aug 03, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nasrat Haqparast 0 15 of 56 26% 15 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Joaquim Silva 1 21 of 38 55% 21 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nasrat Haqparast 0 13 of 49 26% 13 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Joaquim Silva 0 9 of 22 40% 9 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Nasrat Haqparast 0 2 of 7 28% 2 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Joaquim Silva 1 12 of 16 75% 12 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nasrat Haqparast 15 of 56 26% 0 of 35 6 of 11 9 of 10 15 of 56 0 of 0 0 of 0
Joaquim Silva 21 of 38 55% 18 of 33 2 of 4 1 of 1 12 of 29 0 of 0 9 of 9
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nasrat Haqparast 13 of 49 26% 0 of 30 5 of 10 8 of 9 13 of 49 0 of 0 0 of 0
Joaquim Silva 9 of 22 40% 7 of 18 2 of 4 0 of 0 9 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Nasrat Haqparast 2 of 7 28% 0 of 5 1 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Joaquim Silva 12 of 16 75% 11 of 15 0 of 0 1 of 1 3 of 7 0 of 0 9 of 9
WIN vs Jared Gordon
KO (punches) R3 2:39 · UFC on Fox: Lee vs. Iaquinta 2 · Dec 15, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Joaquim Silva 0 116 of 194 59% 149 of 228 3 of 8 37% 0 0 4:24
Jared Gordon 0 95 of 191 49% 121 of 218 1 of 1 100% 2 0 0:38
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Joaquim Silva 0 37 of 55 67% 60 of 79 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:39
Jared Gordon 0 19 of 37 51% 25 of 43 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
2 Joaquim Silva 0 37 of 56 66% 45 of 64 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:45
Jared Gordon 0 25 of 51 49% 45 of 72 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:38
3 Joaquim Silva 0 42 of 83 50% 44 of 85 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Jared Gordon 0 51 of 103 49% 51 of 103 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Joaquim Silva 116 of 194 59% 94 of 166 10 of 15 12 of 13 88 of 163 13 of 15 15 of 16
Jared Gordon 95 of 191 49% 54 of 138 30 of 42 11 of 11 78 of 172 15 of 17 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Joaquim Silva 37 of 55 67% 28 of 43 3 of 5 6 of 7 18 of 34 9 of 11 10 of 10
Jared Gordon 19 of 37 51% 13 of 28 2 of 5 4 of 4 14 of 32 3 of 3 2 of 2
2 Joaquim Silva 37 of 56 66% 26 of 44 6 of 7 5 of 5 30 of 48 2 of 2 5 of 6
Jared Gordon 25 of 51 49% 14 of 39 10 of 11 1 of 1 21 of 47 4 of 4 0 of 0
3 Joaquim Silva 42 of 83 50% 40 of 79 1 of 3 1 of 1 40 of 81 2 of 2 0 of 0
Jared Gordon 51 of 103 49% 27 of 71 18 of 26 6 of 6 43 of 93 8 of 10 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Joaquim Silva vs. Jared Gordon

Round 1
Gordon opens with a front kick to the face. Gordon mixing up his kicks early, going low and to the body of his opponent. A one-two lands for Gordon. “Flash” hurts Silva in an exchange and catches him in an arm-triangle choke as he drives the Brazilian to the canvas. Silva works his way to his feet and eats a knee to the face. Silva presses forward with a combination and gets dazed by a massive right hand. Gordon lands a takedown after eating a couple shots. The Roufusport member is in half guard, applying pressure from above. Silva recovers full guard but has his head bounced off the canvas with a right hand. Silva works his way toward the fence and stands. Silva’s ear has busted open and his eye is swollen. The Brazilian hurts Gordon with an overhand right and follows up with a flying knee. Gordon shoots out of desperation. Silva locks in a 10-finger guillotine. Gordon appears to be on his way out, but Silva lets go just before the horn sounds. 10-10.

Round 2
Silva is aggressive right away. Gordon mixes up his kicks before shooting. Silva sprawls and Gordon tries again, but “Neto BJJ” defends once more. Silva lands an uppercut before Gordon shoots for a takedown against the fence. Gordon is working his way toward Silva’s back, but the Brazilian falls to his back. Gordon is inside Silva’s full guard. “Flash” lands some solid left hands after passing to half guard. Silva stands with Gordon attached to him. Gordon lands a knee in the clinch before the combatants separate. Gordon follows a combination with a high kick. Silva answers with a knee. Silva shucks off a takedown attempt, and both fighters trade in the pocket. Gordon lands a hard right during the exchange. A jab and a low kick connect for Gordon, and Silva responds with an uppercut. Silva explodes for a takedown with about 30 seconds remaining in the round. Silva is attached to his foe’s back as Gordon returns to his feet. Silva nearly has a kneebar as time expires. 10-9 Gordon.

Round 3
Gordon makes Silva stumble back briefly with a right hand. Gordon might be feeling the effects of the kneebar at the end of the previous round, as he’s movement somewhat gingerly around the Octagon. Nonetheless, another right hand lands for “Flash.” Gordan works his jab while Silva attacks with leg kicks. A right hook to the body lands for Silva, but Gordon is doing well with combinations. Both fighters are trading willingly in the pocket for an extended period. Silva sprawls on a takedown and they go right back to trading punches in the pocket. Silva digs numerous body shots to Gordon. Silva lands a left hook and follows up with a pair of straight shots. They’re still going toe-to-toe and it’s a left hook to the chin followed by a a massive right hand from Silva that stuns Gordon. The American falls back into the fence, and
Silva seals the deal with a three-punch combination.
The fight is halted with Gordon out on his feet.

The Official Result
Joaquim Silva def. Jared Gordon via TKO (Punches) R3 2:39
Clay Guida - Fight History
LOSS vs Chase Hooper
Submission (armbar) R1 3:41 · UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · Dec 07, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Chase Hooper 0 5 of 13 38% 6 of 15 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Clay Guida 0 7 of 15 46% 14 of 28 3 of 6 50% 1 0 2:08
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Chase Hooper 0 5 of 13 38% 6 of 15 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Clay Guida 0 7 of 15 46% 14 of 28 3 of 6 50% 1 0 2:08
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Chase Hooper 5 of 13 38% 3 of 9 2 of 4 0 of 0 2 of 10 3 of 3 0 of 0
Clay Guida 7 of 15 46% 5 of 10 2 of 5 0 of 0 5 of 12 1 of 2 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Chase Hooper 5 of 13 38% 3 of 9 2 of 4 0 of 0 2 of 10 3 of 3 0 of 0
Clay Guida 7 of 15 46% 5 of 10 2 of 5 0 of 0 5 of 12 1 of 2 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2024 (7 days before fight)
Chase Hooper

Angelo picks Chase Hooper, arguing that Clay Guida is 42 years old and past his prime, while Hooper's grappling and evolving striking will be too much. He mentions Hooper already submitted Guida in their first fight with a calf slicer. Angelo dismisses the idea that Hooper can't win a kickboxing match, stating Guida is too old and worn down. He is confident Hooper will win again.

"Chase Hooper absolutely smokes here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Chase Hooper

Cody picks Hooper, citing his youth, jiu-jitsu, and improvement. He notes Guida's age and submission losses. He expects Hooper to win inside the distance, likely by submission.

Hooper inside the distance
"Chase Hooper inside the distance... whether it be submission or TKO."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Chase Hooper

Connor is very confident in Hooper, stating that Guida can no longer wrestle or strike effectively. He notes that Hooper is much larger with long arms, and that if Guida tries to wrestle, Hooper will submit him. Connor points out that Guida's style has been ineffective for years and that Hooper's modern technique will be too much.

"This is just a layup for chase. Hooper. Yeah, it should be right really should be."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Chase Hooper

Daniel believes Hooper has matured and can beat Guida anywhere. He references their previous grappling match where Hooper submitted Guida. He expects Hooper to finish Guida, possibly by submission.

by submission
"I think he's going to come out here and finish Klay Guida."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Chase Hooper

Hooper should absolutely smash Clay Guida, who is notorious for coming up short against submission specialists early, just as Charles Oliveira and Jim Miller were able to do. I expect Hooper to submit Guida within the first five minutes.

submission within first round
"I expect Hooper to submit quido within the first five minutes"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Chase Hooper

Paul picks Hooper, emphasizing his grappling and physical advantages. He notes Guida's age and lack of offense. He expects Hooper to submit Guida, but suggests inside the distance is safer.

Hooper by submission (small bet)
"Chase Hooper by submission is somewhat playable."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Chase Hooper

The MMA Guru picks Chase Hooper, noting Guida's age (42) and tendency to make grappling mistakes that lead to submissions. He thinks Hooper's reach, youth, and improved striking will allow him to dominate. He sees Hooper latching up a guillotine or getting dominant position. He does not see Guida having the power to knock Hooper out.

Chase Hooper wins by submission (guillotine)
"I'm going with Chase Hooper um getting this one done against Klay Guida"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Chase Hooper

Zane agrees, confidently picking Hooper. He notes that Guida is ancient and cannot wrestle or strike anymore, while Hooper is a young, skilled grappler with a size advantage. Zane believes Hooper will either outstrike Guida or submit him if Guida tries to wrestle.

"Jay super is gonna beat him using modern technology."
LOSS vs Joaquim Silva
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · Dec 02, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Joaquim Silva 0 43 of 134 32% 63 of 155 2 of 11 18% 0 0 4:23
Clay Guida 0 46 of 91 50% 85 of 141 2 of 3 66% 2 0 2:35
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Joaquim Silva 0 18 of 64 28% 19 of 66 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:29
Clay Guida 0 15 of 32 46% 40 of 65 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:39
2 Joaquim Silva 0 14 of 33 42% 29 of 48 2 of 7 28% 0 0 3:19
Clay Guida 0 15 of 20 75% 26 of 34 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:31
3 Joaquim Silva 0 11 of 37 29% 15 of 41 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:35
Clay Guida 0 16 of 39 41% 19 of 42 1 of 2 50% 1 0 1:25
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Joaquim Silva 43 of 134 32% 19 of 103 14 of 20 10 of 11 36 of 127 7 of 7 0 of 0
Clay Guida 46 of 91 50% 33 of 72 9 of 15 4 of 4 28 of 64 15 of 19 3 of 8
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Joaquim Silva 18 of 64 28% 6 of 51 6 of 6 6 of 7 17 of 63 1 of 1 0 of 0
Clay Guida 15 of 32 46% 13 of 30 0 of 0 2 of 2 8 of 20 4 of 5 3 of 7
2 Joaquim Silva 14 of 33 42% 9 of 26 5 of 7 0 of 0 11 of 30 3 of 3 0 of 0
Clay Guida 15 of 20 75% 12 of 17 3 of 3 0 of 0 7 of 9 8 of 10 0 of 1
3 Joaquim Silva 11 of 37 29% 4 of 26 3 of 7 4 of 4 8 of 34 3 of 3 0 of 0
Clay Guida 16 of 39 41% 8 of 25 6 of 12 2 of 2 13 of 35 3 of 4 0 of 0
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 29, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Joaquim Silva

Cody picks Silva, echoing that Guida is old and Silva has power. He thinks Silva's takedown defense is okay and his cardio is decent. He notes Guida's only path is takedowns and Silva can stuff them. He also mentions a Clay Guida by split decision prop as a possible sprinkle.

considering Clay Guida by split decision prop
"wae Sila would be the pick I suppose for whatever that's worth"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Joaquim Silva

Lucrative James picks Joaquim Silva, noting that Silva showed enough in his last fight to be favored. He believes Silva can get a submission, possibly a guillotine when Clay Guida shoots for a takedown. However, he is not betting at -350 due to Guida's grappling ability and durability.

Silva inside the distance, possibly by submission
"I definitely feel like he could get a submission Guillotine here when Clay is shooting in on a Tak down"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Joaquim Silva

Silva is a powerful striker with a BJJ black belt, and he should be able to land big shots on Guida if he lets his hands go. Guida relies on movement and cardio, but Silva's power and pressure could lead to a finish. However, if the fight reaches the third round, Guida's cardio could make things competitive. Silva is expected to win, possibly by finish.

finish predicted, but not confident inside distance
"I'm going to go waim Silva I think he gets the Finish over Guida but if this fight reaches the third round things could get a little bit shaky"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 29, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Joaquim Silva

Paul picks Silva but doesn't love the money line. He thinks Silva's takedown defense is decent and his cardio is good enough to outlast Guida. He notes Guida is almost 42 and slowing down, and if Guida can't get takedowns early, he'll get boxed up. He considers a Clay Guida by split decision prop as a sprinkle.

considering Clay Guida by split decision prop
"the pick's got to be Yim Silva"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 28, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Joaquim Silva

The MMA Guru picks Joaquim Silva, citing his power, jiujitsu, and finishing ability. He notes that Clay Guida tends to lose to fighters with finishing ability and that Silva is dangerous. He believes Silva's technical skills outweigh Guida's grit and expects Silva to win.

"I got to go Joaquim Silva... dangerous powerful good jiujitsu... if you have finishing ability you beat Clay Guida."
LOSS vs Rafa García
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Holloway vs. Allen · Apr 15, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rafa García 0 63 of 252 25% 63 of 252 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Clay Guida 0 141 of 287 49% 143 of 289 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:20
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rafa García 0 23 of 92 25% 23 of 92 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Clay Guida 0 34 of 89 38% 34 of 89 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Rafa García 0 21 of 88 23% 21 of 88 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Clay Guida 0 65 of 110 59% 65 of 110 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Rafa García 0 19 of 72 26% 19 of 72 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Clay Guida 0 42 of 88 47% 44 of 90 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:20
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rafa García 63 of 252 25% 49 of 227 4 of 12 10 of 13 63 of 252 0 of 0 0 of 0
Clay Guida 141 of 287 49% 130 of 269 5 of 12 6 of 6 138 of 284 3 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rafa García 23 of 92 25% 16 of 82 2 of 4 5 of 6 23 of 92 0 of 0 0 of 0
Clay Guida 34 of 89 38% 29 of 81 1 of 4 4 of 4 34 of 89 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Rafa García 21 of 88 23% 17 of 80 1 of 4 3 of 4 21 of 88 0 of 0 0 of 0
Clay Guida 65 of 110 59% 63 of 107 2 of 3 0 of 0 62 of 107 3 of 3 0 of 0
3 Rafa García 19 of 72 26% 16 of 65 1 of 4 2 of 3 19 of 72 0 of 0 0 of 0
Clay Guida 42 of 88 47% 38 of 81 2 of 5 2 of 2 42 of 88 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Rafa Garcia vs. Clay Guida
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Garcia (-260), Guida (+220)

Round 1
The main card opens up with the lightweights, as eternally youthful 41-year-old Guida (38-22, 18-16 UFC) looks to go on his first win streak in six years. Standing in his way will be Combate Americas vet Garcia (14-3, 3-3 UFC), who also happens to be 13 years his junior. Whether this is a passing of the torch fight or proof that the now short-haired Guida very much still has it, they have 15 minutes to determine this while referee Dwayne Bess watches on. There is no plan for a bump of fists as the crowd goes crazy for Guida, and he starts off like he always does, with herky-jerky movement and plenty of energy. The two fighters meet right in the middle, throwing hands, and Guida gets the better of the exchange. Guida ducks a huge overhand right to stick him with a right, and he considers a takedown to mix things up. Garcia scores a right hand, and Guida slips and backs off to take a low kick. Guida returns fire with a leg kick, and Garcia quickly covers with a right over the top. Guida chains a low kick into punches, and Garcia backs him off with solid straight right hands. Guida circles along the outside, and he evades a one-two that soars at him. Guida lands a left and moves, and he swipes out with a left hand as Garcia reaches him with the right. Garcia rushes forward with a left to the ribs, and he misses the mark swinging a few hooks. Guida absorbs a flush leg kick at the end of a combination, and he gets tagged with a solid right to follow. They meet with jabs, and “Gifted” bestows Guida with a gift of a left hook. Guida bobs and moves in, and Garcia marks him up with five or six jabs in rapid succession. Guida’s nose is showing some damage from the punches, and Garcia clubs him with a right that lands on the jaw. Garcia counters with a sharp elbow, and Guida is eating shots every time he initiates his offense. Guida lands two punches coming in, and Garcia snaps out a jab at the end. Garcia’s jabs begin to sting Guida and make him smile, and the round ends after a pair of missed haymakers from both fighters.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Garcia

Round 2
Guida races out of his corner to start off firing, and he sticks several jabs in then face of his opponent. Guida gets rocked with an uppercut, and he shakes it out and slaps down with a leg kick. Guida steps in with a knee, and he closes in on the clinch but does not change levels. A few punches from “The Carpenter” bounce off the guard, while a low kick does score. Garcia is timing uppercuts when Guida ducks or bobs, and chants for “Let’s go Guida” energize him slightly but do not change his strategy. Garcia nails his foe with a few right hands, and Guida catches him with a clean right in response before ducking into a single. Garcia stands him up and meets him with an elbow, and his jab is doing work. Guida shakes his head repeatedly when absorbing this blow again and again, but he cannot seem to get around it as his face bleeds out of multiple cuts. Guida checks a kick but gets tagged up top, and they trade punches with Garcia getting the better of them. Garcia knocks Guida’s mouthpiece out, and the veteran goes to retrieve it and continues to work towards Garcia. Guida does land a solid right, but Garcia is doing work with punches in bunches. Guida takes his foot off the gas to stop walking into so many jabs, and he adjusts his approach by not throwing as much to get countered. Guida punches his way into range, but Garcia reaches him with a few straight rights. Garcia rings Guida’s bell with a pair of straight shots, and Guida takes them on the chin and keeps coming forward. Garcia paws out with jabs to keep Guida at bay, and he allows Guida to throw with impunity as he tags him with right hands. A big right from Garcia ends the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Garcia

Round 3
Like usual, Guida engages face-first in his approach. Garcia counters with a right over the top, and Guida counters with a head kick and takedown effort. Garcia shuts it down and gets popped with a few left hooks. “Gifted” intercepts Guida with an uppercut as Guida changes levels, and he lumbers forward throwing shots that Guida dodges. Guida connects with a left, a right and a low kick, and Garcia backpedals. Garcia loads up on an elbow that whizzes past Guida’s head, and he gets caught with a left as Guida is moving constantly. Garcia darts in with a left hook, and Guida ties him up and eats a few body shots before getting shoved back. Guida lands three punches up top as Garcia backs off with a right, and they trade punches while standing right in front of one another. Guida launches a head kick that gets blocked, and Garcia shells up and makes him pay with a few uppercuts. Garcia jabs to the body, and he swings and misses with a high kick in hopes of catching Guida barreling down on him. Guida gets his chin checked by a powerful right hook at the end of a string of punches, and the veteran shake it off and does not falter. Guida walks into a right hand as he tries to push the action, and he guard against a head kick. Garcia chains a few punches together, and he rocks Guida with a right hand as Guida staggers to the side. Garcia bloodies Guida up further as he drives jab after piston-like jab into the face, and Guida checks the sight of his blood and shoots for a takedown. Garcia escapes the grip and drills Guida with two more punches. Garcia leaps in the air with a knee, and Guida is out of the way but also out of time. The last round comes to an end, and the lightweights hug it out after 15 minutes of striking. When the dust settles, Guida takes his gloves off and holds them to earn an interview with Daniel Cormier. He does not hang them up, instead saying he will keep fighting, and asks to trade gloves with his opponent. This is the second fighter to do a retirement fake-out tonight.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Garcia (30-27 Garcia)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Garcia (30-27 Garcia)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Garcia (30-27 Garcia)

The Official Result
Rafa Garcia def. Clay Guida via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 9, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Rafa García

Angelo picks Rafa García, expecting him to get takedowns and win striking exchanges. He notes García's grappling and power, but also his cardio issues. He is not betting on García at -190 because the odds are too high, especially against a relentless pressure fighter like Guida who could expose cardio issues.

"half is going to be the pick I'm not gonna bet on him I just don't like those odds"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Rafa García

Big Brady picks Rafa García to win by first-round submission. He highlights García's improved cardio and grappling since moving to Elevation Fight Team, and notes Guida's age (41) and history of being submitted (11 times). He expects García to take Guida down and submit him early.

first round submission
"I like Garcia to win this fight by first round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Rafa García

Cody sees Garcia as a younger, better version of Guida with pressure wrestling and improving skills. He thinks Garcia's clinch strength and cardio will overwhelm the aging Guida. He acknowledges the line is steep but believes Garcia wins.

"gotta go with Rafa Garcia"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 13, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Rafa García

Connor also picks Garcia, agreeing that Guida's style is not threatening enough to stop Garcia's forward pressure. He notes that Guida is more evasive than aggressive at this stage, and Garcia's willingness to keep working even when takedowns fail will be key. Connor believes Garcia's youth and activity will overwhelm the 41-year-old Guida.

"I got to take Rafa Garcia."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Rafa García

Garcia is younger and entering his prime, while Guida's recent wins are over older or retiring fighters. Garcia's boxing and forward pressure should outwork Guida, though Guida's cardio and grinding style could make it close. Garcia's ability to mix in takedowns and maintain pace should earn him a decision victory.

Over 2.5 rounds
"I expect him to land the better and more significant strikes in the early goings of this fight maybe not put clay Guido away but do enough to win a decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Clay Guida

Paul is intrigued by Guida's plus money, noting Guida's takedown defense (only 2 takedowns allowed in 14 fights) and the possibility of a close decision. He thinks Garcia's takedown totals may be inflated and that Guida could grind out a win. He placed a small bet on Guida.

Small bet on Guida moneyline; also considering Guida by split decision prop
"I'm leaning towards clay just because of the money line we'll see where the where it goes I added a little bit of plus 210 really really small little play"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Rafa García

The MMA Guru picks Rafa García, citing his youth (28), well-rounded skills, and potential to finish the 41-year-old Guida. He believes García will corner Guida and put an end to his recent string of close decisions. He notes Guida's durability and movement but thinks García's prime and power will prevail.

García wins by finish (KO/TKO)
"Rafa Garcia gets the job done"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 13, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Rafa García

Zane picks Garcia, noting that Guida's recent win over Scott Holtzman was unimpressive and that Garcia's relentless pressure and wrestling will be too much. He acknowledges that Garcia can struggle if his takedowns are stuffed, but believes Guida's lack of offensive pressure and age will allow Garcia to implement his game plan. Zane expects Garcia to push forward, land punches, and mix in takedowns.

Garcia opened -250/-230, now -245; Guida opened +200, now +213. Zane does not mention betting.
"I'm picking Rafa Garcia. This is not a hard fight to pick."
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Thompson vs. Holland · Dec 03, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Clay Guida 0 66 of 183 36% 95 of 215 4 of 15 26% 0 0 5:35
Scott Holtzman 0 65 of 166 39% 77 of 178 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:18
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Clay Guida 0 23 of 79 29% 23 of 79 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Scott Holtzman 0 18 of 63 28% 19 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Clay Guida 0 17 of 40 42% 29 of 53 2 of 8 25% 0 0 2:55
Scott Holtzman 0 22 of 42 52% 32 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
3 Clay Guida 0 26 of 64 40% 43 of 83 2 of 6 33% 0 0 2:40
Scott Holtzman 0 25 of 61 40% 26 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:17
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Clay Guida 66 of 183 36% 30 of 134 23 of 36 13 of 13 58 of 173 5 of 7 3 of 3
Scott Holtzman 65 of 166 39% 55 of 146 5 of 13 5 of 7 60 of 160 5 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Clay Guida 23 of 79 29% 10 of 59 5 of 12 8 of 8 22 of 77 1 of 2 0 of 0
Scott Holtzman 18 of 63 28% 11 of 48 3 of 9 4 of 6 18 of 63 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Clay Guida 17 of 40 42% 9 of 31 5 of 6 3 of 3 17 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0
Scott Holtzman 22 of 42 52% 21 of 40 0 of 1 1 of 1 19 of 38 3 of 4 0 of 0
3 Clay Guida 26 of 64 40% 11 of 44 13 of 18 2 of 2 19 of 56 4 of 5 3 of 3
Scott Holtzman 25 of 61 40% 23 of 58 2 of 3 0 of 0 23 of 59 2 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 27, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Scott Holtzman

Angelo picks Scott Holtzman, believing he will be a step ahead in striking and should be able to defend Clay Guida's takedown attempts. He notes Guida is a grinder who will come forward with volume but lacks one-punch KO power or sudden submissions, giving Holtzman time to settle into a rhythm. He expects a fun fight and thinks Holtzman will dominate the striking.

"Scott Holtzman is absolutely the pick but I think we all love clay Guida right we're all going to be rooting for him here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Nov 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Scott Holtzman

Big Brady picks Holtzman, citing his striking advantage and ability to get back up from takedowns. He notes Guida is older (41) and has more fights, but expresses concern about Holtzman's layoff (1 year 7 months) and age (39). He expects Holtzman to win a dominant decision unless he shows decline.

Holtzman wins by decision
"give me Scott Holtzman to go out there and win a decision I think he makes it look pretty dominant"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Clay Guida

Cody picks Guida, citing Holtzman's takedown defense issues and Guida's wrestling. He notes Holtzman's inactivity and questions his motivation. He sees Guida as a live dog.

"I gotta go put that plus 135 clay Guida could be the PRP pick on a 15 fight card"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Scott Holtzman

Connor picks Scott Holtzman, agreeing that Holtzman will keep fighting back from takedowns and create scrambles, eventually hurting Guida. He notes that Guida could get submitted or run into a knee, but Holtzman's ability to keep giving himself chances is the deciding factor.

"If he keeps giving himself chances to hurt, Clay Guida at some point, I have to assume that you'll hurt him bad enough to win."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Nov 30, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Scott Holtzman

Daniel Levi leans Holtzman but is unsure. He notes Holtzman's durability and power, but questions his motivation at 39 and after two KO losses. He thinks it's a dog-or-pass situation and will likely not bet.

"I think it might be a dog or pass situation to be quite Frank with you but I'm gonna lean I'm gonna lean Scotty but I'm I'm not I'm not sure"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 29, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Scott Holtzman

The host is confident in Holtzman, calling the minus 150 line a steal. He thinks Holtzman's takedown defense and power will be too much for the aging Guida. He expects Holtzman to finish Guida inside the distance, noting that Guida has no finishing threat. He believes the year-and-a-half layoff and two-fight losing streak have created recency bias against Holtzman.

Holtzman inside the distance
"I love the minus 150 line on him I think that's a bit of a steal and I think there's a little bit of recency bias there"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Clay Guida

Paul picks Guida, noting Holtzman's long layoff and uncertainty. He thinks Guida's wrestling and pace could be enough. He sees it as a dog or pass situation.

"I'm thinking clay as well and Clay has this ability with refs or with the judges too it's just like you know he does a lot of crazy motion and stuff and doesn't really throw some strikes but it's like …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Scott Holtzman

The MMA Guru picks Scott Holtzman, citing his power advantage and size for the division. He notes Holtzman has beaten tough guys like Jim Miller and Alan Patrick, while Guida's recent wins haven't aged well. He predicts Holtzman will stuff a takedown and land big elbows for a finish.

Holtzman by TKO (elbows)
"I'm going with Scott Holtzman over cleguider"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Scott Holtzman

Zane picks Scott Holtzman hesitantly, reasoning that Holtzman is younger and will keep creating scrambles, giving himself chances to hurt Guida. He notes that Guida is old and the tread is off the tires, but Holtzman is susceptible to wrestlers and could get submitted.

"I think he's winning his wins. His hit right now. He is beating fighters who have lost. Whatever made them good at any point has been taken from them."
LOSS vs Claudio Puelles
Submission (kneebar) R1 3:01 · UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andrade · Apr 23, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Claudio Puelles 0 3 of 4 75% 4 of 6 0 of 1 0% 0 1 1:10
Clay Guida 0 1 of 3 33% 11 of 13 0 of 0 --- 2 0 0:14
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Claudio Puelles 0 3 of 4 75% 4 of 6 0 of 1 0% 0 1 1:10
Clay Guida 0 1 of 3 33% 11 of 13 0 of 0 --- 2 0 0:14
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Claudio Puelles 3 of 4 75% 1 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 2 2 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 1
Clay Guida 1 of 3 33% 1 of 2 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Claudio Puelles 3 of 4 75% 1 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 2 2 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 1
Clay Guida 1 of 3 33% 1 of 2 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 17, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Claudio Puelles

Angelo picks Claudio Puelles to win a decision via grappling. He notes Puelles is young, hungry, and dangerous, and that it's easier to finish a bad takedown than defend one. He says Puelles will entertain striking but ultimately push a grappling game plan, get takedowns, and ride out a decision. He mentions Clay Guida only has two wins in 35 UFC fights against opponents who took him down.

"i like claudio playlist to ride out a decision win and he's going to do so with the grappling"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Apr 19, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Claudio Puelles

Big Brady picks Claudio Puelles to win by submission, citing his youth, size advantage, and BJJ brown belt. He notes that Puelles is 15 years younger and has a four-inch height and two-inch reach advantage. He thinks Puelles can submit Guida if the fight goes to the mat, especially since Guida has been submitted 10 times. However, he acknowledges Guida's cardio advantage and that the fight is close, so he won't bet on it.

Win by submission, first round submission
"I'm actually going to take uh poyus here to win... I'm going to take him to win by submission at some point... first round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 20, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Clay Guida

Cody leans Guida, citing Puelles' poor takedown defense and Guida's grinding style. He notes Puelles is young and improving but has been taken down by non-wrestlers. Guida's submission defense has improved, and his cardio should wear on Puelles. He suggests live betting Guida after the first round.

Live betting opportunity after round 1
"the official pick will ever so slightly be with uh the carpenter clay guido"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 23, 2022 (fight day)
Clay Guida

The host picks Clay Guida to win, betting 1.07 units at -107. He expects the fight to go the full 15 minutes with Guida getting his hand raised. He also includes Guida in a parlay with Andrade and Barriault.

Included in a parlay with Andrade and Barriault. Also bet on over 2.5 rounds in the totals parlay.
"i'm going clay guido 1.07 units at -107 so pretty much just to win one unit there"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 20, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Clay Guida

Paul agrees with Cody, highlighting Guida's durability and activity. He thinks Guida's wrestling and pressure will be key, and that Puelles may tire. He mentions Guida's recent grappling improvements and suggests a decision win or live betting opportunity.

Clay by decision; live betting
"clay clay by decision could be uh good looks and clay in the live market could even could even be better"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 19, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Clay Guida

The MMA Guru picks Clay Guida, expressing shock that 70% of tipsters are picking Puelles. He argues Puelles is mediocre and had a tough fight with Chris Gruetzemacher. He highlights Guida's submission defense from Quintet and his wrestling pace that prevents submissions. He believes Puelles has no power or technique on the feet to worry Guida. He predicts Guida will grind out a win, possibly a third-round finish, and notes Guida's recent activity. He hopes the public money on Puelles will make Guida an underdog.

third round finish possible
"i am going to go have clay guida here it is a shock to me it is an absolute shock to me that seventy percent of topology are picking claudio poelas here"
Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 1:21 · UFC on ESPN: Font vs. Aldo · Dec 04, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Clay Guida 0 18 of 50 36% 50 of 87 2 of 7 28% 1 0 2:09
Leonardo Santos 1 41 of 60 68% 65 of 92 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Clay Guida 0 8 of 30 26% 34 of 57 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:11
Leonardo Santos 1 39 of 58 67% 63 of 90 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:01
2 Clay Guida 0 10 of 20 50% 16 of 30 1 of 3 33% 1 0 0:58
Leonardo Santos 0 2 of 2 100% 2 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Clay Guida 18 of 50 36% 8 of 39 6 of 6 4 of 5 7 of 38 0 of 1 11 of 11
Leonardo Santos 41 of 60 68% 22 of 39 17 of 19 2 of 2 13 of 21 16 of 23 12 of 16
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Clay Guida 8 of 30 26% 6 of 27 1 of 1 1 of 2 5 of 26 0 of 1 3 of 3
Leonardo Santos 39 of 58 67% 21 of 38 16 of 18 2 of 2 11 of 19 16 of 23 12 of 16
2 Clay Guida 10 of 20 50% 2 of 12 5 of 5 3 of 3 2 of 12 0 of 0 8 of 8
Leonardo Santos 2 of 2 100% 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Dec 1, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Leonardo Santos

Angelo picks Leonardo Santos, though his heart says Guida. He notes Santos has better jiu-jitsu, power, and striking, but Guida's pace could be an issue. Angelo thinks Santos is the smarter pick but the odds are crazy.

"my heart is saying clay guida but my brain is saying leonardo"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Leonardo Santos

Big Brady picks Leonardo Santos to win by first-round submission. He notes Santos has a massive height and reach advantage, superior striking, and is a BJJ black belt. He points out that Clay Guida has been submitted 10 times and is often finished. However, he warns that Santos has poor cardio (about 1.5 rounds), so if he doesn't finish early, Guida could take over. Brady is confident Santos will finish early, likely by submission after hurting Guida on the feet.

first round submission
"give me santa's win... first round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Dec 1, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Leonardo Santos

Cody also picks Santos but is not confident, citing Santos's age (41) and recent poor performances. He thinks Santos has the skills to win but his gas tank is a concern. Cody notes that Guida has a history of getting submitted and that Santos could catch him, but he's not sold on the -180 price.

"i honestly think santos will probably out him i would strike him on the better strikes i strike him on the cleaner stuff but yeah volume could be clay guide is in your right in a small octagon where clay …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Dec 2, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Leonardo Santos

Daniel Levi picks Leonardo Santos to win by submission, specifically a guillotine or rear-naked choke. He notes Santos's length, underrated hands, calf kicks, and elite jiu-jitsu, and points out that Guida has been submitted multiple times. He is concerned about Santos gassing but believes Santos can finish early if he gets Guida to the mat.

submission (guillotine or rear-naked choke)
"Let me go leo santos via either guillotine or rear naked choke submission here"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Clay Guida

Jacob picks Clay Guida, citing his pressure and cardio. He notes Santos is a defensive striker and Guida can pressure him against the fence. Jacob thinks Guida's wrestling and jiu-jitsu are good enough to avoid submissions, and he will win a typical Guida fight.

"i like quickly guided to win this fight the way that he always wins his fights"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Leonardo Santos

I like Santos. He is the better striker with power and range, and he has good takedown defense. Guida's pace is not what it used to be, and he struggles against fighters who can keep him at distance. Santos can finish on the feet or via submission. I like Santos inside the distance at plus 200 and Santos by submission at plus 315.

Santos inside the distance +200, Santos by submission +315
"i like santos santos sub census inside the distance"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Dec 1, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Leonardo Santos

Paul picks Santos but with low confidence, noting Santos's skill advantage but poor gas tank and lack of volume. He thinks Santos should win if he uses his reach and grappling, but worries about his cardio and tendency to underperform. Paul mentions that Santos by submission is tempting but he can't trust him to get the fight to the mat.

Santos by submission +375
"pick is santos i mean if santo if i knew santos was gonna attack the wrestling and try to get this fight to the mat i would be a lot more um aggressive with with the play"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2021 (fight day)
Clay Guida

The MMA Guru picks Clay Guida to win by 29-28 unanimous decision. He expects Santos to win the first round with striking and takedown defense, but Guida's cardio will take over in the second and third. Guida will secure takedowns and land ground strikes as Santos fades, winning the last two rounds.

"i'm going to go of clay guida 29-28 unanimous decision"
LOSS vs Mark Madsen
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Cannonier vs. Gastelum · Aug 21, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mark Madsen 0 72 of 212 33% 72 of 212 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Clay Guida 0 98 of 192 51% 101 of 198 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:54
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mark Madsen 0 15 of 50 30% 15 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Clay Guida 0 32 of 52 61% 35 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:40
2 Mark Madsen 0 26 of 72 36% 26 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Clay Guida 0 31 of 58 53% 31 of 60 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:07
3 Mark Madsen 0 31 of 90 34% 31 of 90 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Clay Guida 0 35 of 82 42% 35 of 82 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mark Madsen 72 of 212 33% 30 of 161 5 of 13 37 of 38 64 of 203 8 of 9 0 of 0
Clay Guida 98 of 192 51% 70 of 159 17 of 21 11 of 12 80 of 172 18 of 20 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mark Madsen 15 of 50 30% 7 of 38 0 of 3 8 of 9 13 of 48 2 of 2 0 of 0
Clay Guida 32 of 52 61% 17 of 33 12 of 15 3 of 4 18 of 36 14 of 16 0 of 0
2 Mark Madsen 26 of 72 36% 10 of 56 3 of 3 13 of 13 22 of 67 4 of 5 0 of 0
Clay Guida 31 of 58 53% 24 of 50 3 of 4 4 of 4 29 of 56 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Mark Madsen 31 of 90 34% 13 of 67 2 of 7 16 of 16 29 of 88 2 of 2 0 of 0
Clay Guida 35 of 82 42% 29 of 76 2 of 2 4 of 4 33 of 80 2 of 2 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Aug 17, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Mark Madsen

Big Brady picks Mark Madsen, but is concerned about his gas tank. He notes Madsen has slowed down in previous fights, while Guida has endless cardio. However, he believes Madsen's wrestling is elite and he can get a finish early. He predicts a first-round submission.

first round submission
"i'm going to say mark mathen does get a first round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Aug 18, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Mark Madsen

Cody picks Madsen but with hesitation due to red flags: Madsen's broken jaw, infection, wife's MS, layoff, and cardio issues. He notes Madsen's elite wrestling but poor striking and potential to gas. He thinks Madsen's wrestling is enough to beat a 38-year-old Guida, but warns of submission danger from Guida's neck exposure.

Madsen by sub +550 (DraftKings); decision likely but sub possible
"i'll pick mark matson i think he gets it off early with that wrestling it is elite"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 18, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Clay Guida

Madsen has cardio issues and has never faced a pace like Guida's. Guida's work rate and scrambling will be too much for Madsen in the later rounds. If Madsen doesn't get an early submission, Guida takes over. I'm picking Guida by decision, and he's a great live bet after round one.

Guida by decision (+290); live bet on Guida after round 1
"i'm going with the clay guitar side of things here i do think that he uh nullifies the amount of damage and submission threats that's going to be coming his way early in this fight and then i think he …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 18, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Mark Madsen

Paul picks Madsen, citing his Olympic-level wrestling and training with Henry Cejudo at Fight Ready. He acknowledges Guida's cardio and durability but believes Madsen can turn it into a wrestling match and win. He notes Guida's tendency to leave his neck exposed, making a submission possible.

Madsen by sub +550 (DraftKings); decision likely but sub possible
"i think mark madsen can come come back here off the shelf i know he hasn't fought in a while but uh i think that he can just turn this into just a straight up wrestling match and get the …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Mark Madsen

The MMA Guru picks Mark Madsen to win by 29-28 unanimous decision. He expects Madsen to win the first two rounds with wrestling and grappling, then Guida to rally in the third but fall short. He notes Madsen's Olympic-level wrestling and size advantage, but questions his cardio.

"i think he's gonna beat the [ __ ] out of mark madsen in the third round i can see a 29-28 mark madsen here"
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Volkov · Feb 06, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Clay Guida 0 58 of 126 46% 70 of 138 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:03
Michael Johnson 0 49 of 89 55% 65 of 107 3 of 7 42% 1 0 6:53
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Clay Guida 0 31 of 66 46% 32 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:33
Michael Johnson 0 29 of 44 65% 31 of 46 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:24
2 Clay Guida 0 14 of 27 51% 18 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:04
Michael Johnson 0 13 of 24 54% 21 of 32 1 of 4 25% 0 0 2:50
3 Clay Guida 0 13 of 33 39% 20 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:26
Michael Johnson 0 7 of 21 33% 13 of 29 1 of 1 100% 1 0 2:39
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Clay Guida 58 of 126 46% 52 of 113 5 of 12 1 of 1 47 of 115 6 of 6 5 of 5
Michael Johnson 49 of 89 55% 31 of 71 12 of 12 6 of 6 32 of 72 14 of 14 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Clay Guida 31 of 66 46% 26 of 55 4 of 10 1 of 1 27 of 62 4 of 4 0 of 0
Michael Johnson 29 of 44 65% 21 of 36 5 of 5 3 of 3 22 of 37 7 of 7 0 of 0
2 Clay Guida 14 of 27 51% 13 of 26 1 of 1 0 of 0 10 of 23 2 of 2 2 of 2
Michael Johnson 13 of 24 54% 4 of 15 6 of 6 3 of 3 5 of 16 7 of 7 1 of 1
3 Clay Guida 13 of 33 39% 13 of 32 0 of 1 0 of 0 10 of 30 0 of 0 3 of 3
Michael Johnson 7 of 21 33% 6 of 20 1 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 19 0 of 0 2 of 2
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Feb 1, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Michael Johnson

Big Brady picks Michael Johnson but with low trust, calling him one of the least trustworthy fighters. He notes Johnson's massive striking advantage and excellent takedown defense, but warns that Johnson often loses as a big favorite. He expects Johnson to win a decision by outpointing Guida, but advises leaving him off parlays.

betting advice: leave off parlays
"You've got to go with Johnson here, I think he's one of the least trustworthy fighters I've ever seen... I'm gonna say Johnson wins by decision."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Feb 5, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Michael Johnson

Daniel Levi picks Michael Johnson but is hesitant due to Johnson's history of pulling stunts and losing fights he should win. He acknowledges Johnson's speed and better competition, but worries about his takedown defense and submission vulnerability. He suggests live betting Clay Guida if he gets takedowns, but pre-fight goes with Johnson.

"i gotta go with michael johnson to get it done um hopefully he does uh don't don't [ __ ] this one up"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Feb 1, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Clay Guida

Michael Johnson is extremely untrustworthy, having lost 6 of his last 8 fights with mental lapses and slip-ups. He has all the skills but cannot be relied upon. Clay Guida brings relentless pressure, takedowns, and clinch work, and has a great gas tank. Johnson's takedown defense and fight IQ are questionable. Guida should be able to grind out a decision by pushing Johnson against the cage and taking him down. Skill-for-skill Johnson is better, but Guida's mentality and experience give him the edge.

Guida by decision; if Guida hits +200 it might be worth a play
"i'm picking clay gordy here i think he wins by decision i think we just see him over and over again just just grind on michael johnson"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2021 (7 days before fight)
Michael Johnson

The MMA Guru picks Michael Johnson, believing his grappling is good enough to stuff Clay Guida's takedowns. He notes Johnson's wins over Poirier and Ferguson, and training with Usman. He predicts Johnson will land big shots early and finish Guida by TKO in the first or second round, suggesting Guida should retire.

first or second round TKO
"i'm gonna go with michael johnson here getting it done he didn't take any damage in his last bout"
Expert Picks (5)
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 29, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Joaquim Silva

Cody picks Silva, echoing that Guida is old and Silva has power. He thinks Silva's takedown defense is okay and his cardio is decent. He notes Guida's only path is takedowns and Silva can stuff them. He also mentions a Clay Guida by split decision prop as a possible sprinkle.

considering Clay Guida by split decision prop
"wae Sila would be the pick I suppose for whatever that's worth"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Joaquim Silva

Lucrative James picks Joaquim Silva, noting that Silva showed enough in his last fight to be favored. He believes Silva can get a submission, possibly a guillotine when Clay Guida shoots for a takedown. However, he is not betting at -350 due to Guida's grappling ability and durability.

Silva inside the distance, possibly by submission
"I definitely feel like he could get a submission Guillotine here when Clay is shooting in on a Tak down"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Joaquim Silva

Silva is a powerful striker with a BJJ black belt, and he should be able to land big shots on Guida if he lets his hands go. Guida relies on movement and cardio, but Silva's power and pressure could lead to a finish. However, if the fight reaches the third round, Guida's cardio could make things competitive. Silva is expected to win, possibly by finish.

finish predicted, but not confident inside distance
"I'm going to go waim Silva I think he gets the Finish over Guida but if this fight reaches the third round things could get a little bit shaky"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 29, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Joaquim Silva

Paul picks Silva but doesn't love the money line. He thinks Silva's takedown defense is decent and his cardio is good enough to outlast Guida. He notes Guida is almost 42 and slowing down, and if Guida can't get takedowns early, he'll get boxed up. He considers a Clay Guida by split decision prop as a sprinkle.

considering Clay Guida by split decision prop
"the pick's got to be Yim Silva"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 28, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Joaquim Silva

The MMA Guru picks Joaquim Silva, citing his power, jiujitsu, and finishing ability. He notes that Clay Guida tends to lose to fighters with finishing ability and that Silva is dangerous. He believes Silva's technical skills outweigh Guida's grit and expects Silva to win.

"I got to go Joaquim Silva... dangerous powerful good jiujitsu... if you have finishing ability you beat Clay Guida."