Career Averages - Dustin Stoltzfus
Career Averages - Punahele Soriano
Dustin Stoltzfus
Punahele Soriano
Dustin Stoltzfus - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelvin Gastelum | 1 | 57 of 117 | 48% | 58 of 118 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 0 | 64 of 146 | 43% | 69 of 151 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 1 | 2:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kelvin Gastelum | 0 | 14 of 25 | 56% | 15 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 0 | 24 of 49 | 48% | 25 of 50 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:47 | |
| 2 | Kelvin Gastelum | 1 | 23 of 43 | 53% | 23 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 0 | 20 of 45 | 44% | 24 of 49 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 1:13 | |
| 3 | Kelvin Gastelum | 0 | 20 of 49 | 40% | 20 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 0 | 20 of 52 | 38% | 20 of 52 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelvin Gastelum | 57 of 117 | 48% | 30 of 81 | 16 of 24 | 11 of 12 | 56 of 116 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 64 of 146 | 43% | 25 of 93 | 25 of 34 | 14 of 19 | 55 of 134 | 4 of 5 | 5 of 7 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kelvin Gastelum | 14 of 25 | 56% | 4 of 14 | 6 of 7 | 4 of 4 | 14 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 24 of 49 | 48% | 3 of 23 | 13 of 17 | 8 of 9 | 20 of 44 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Kelvin Gastelum | 23 of 43 | 53% | 14 of 30 | 6 of 9 | 3 of 4 | 23 of 43 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 20 of 45 | 44% | 12 of 35 | 4 of 5 | 4 of 5 | 15 of 38 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 7 | |
| 3 | Kelvin Gastelum | 20 of 49 | 40% | 12 of 37 | 4 of 8 | 4 of 4 | 19 of 48 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 20 of 52 | 38% | 10 of 35 | 8 of 12 | 2 of 5 | 20 of 52 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Kelvin Gastelum, calling him a great wrestler and striker with an unbelievable chin, but wasted talent due to poor work ethic. He says this is the easiest matchup Kelvin has had in five years, and he should win the striking exchanges and eat whatever comes back. He notes concern about Kelvin's takedown defense after the Sean Brady fight, but thinks he should be a better wrestler than Stoltzfus. He says the line should be wider but isn't because people can't trust Kelvin.
Big Brady picks Gastelum as the better striker who should keep the fight standing. He notes Stoltzfus is not on Gastelum's level and that a loss would be Gastelum's worst. He predicts a decision win but says he won't bet on it.
Connor picks Gastelum hesitantly, noting that Stoltzfus is glacially slow and has been knocked out multiple times. However, he warns that Gastelum could have a Punahele Soriano-like performance where he fails to impose himself and gets outworked. Connor believes Gastelum's athleticism and scrambling will be key, but he is not confident.
Despite Gastelum's inconsistency, the host sees this as a fight he should win. He expects Gastelum to showcase his takedown defense and pressure with power striking, leading to a knockout in the second or third round.
The MMA Guru picks Kelvin Gastelum, believing he has a clear advantage in technical ability and power. He notes Stoltzfus has been knocked out multiple times and lacks the tools to drop or ragdoll Gastelum. He predicts a TKO win in the middle of the fight, possibly late first or second round, as Gastelum pressures and finishes a tiring Stoltzfus.
Zane picks Gastelum hesitantly, acknowledging that Stoltzfus could replicate his win over Punahele Soriano by pressuring and outworking Gastelum. He notes that Gastelum is still athletic and durable but has shown a tendency to not consider bad positions. Zane believes Gastelum's scrambling ability and power will be enough, but he can easily see this fight looking like the Soriano fight.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 0 | 21 of 37 | 56% | 41 of 62 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 2 | 0 | 5:11 |
| Nursulton Ruziboev | 0 | 35 of 68 | 51% | 53 of 94 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 2 | 3:21 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dustin Stoltzfus | 0 | 5 of 13 | 38% | 10 of 18 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 1:14 |
| Nursulton Ruziboev | 0 | 13 of 27 | 48% | 21 of 36 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 1:24 | |
| 2 | Dustin Stoltzfus | 0 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 14 of 18 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:13 |
| Nursulton Ruziboev | 0 | 11 of 19 | 57% | 21 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 1:55 | |
| 3 | Dustin Stoltzfus | 0 | 14 of 21 | 66% | 17 of 26 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 1:44 |
| Nursulton Ruziboev | 0 | 11 of 22 | 50% | 11 of 23 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 21 of 37 | 56% | 5 of 19 | 4 of 6 | 12 of 12 | 19 of 34 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
| Nursulton Ruziboev | 35 of 68 | 51% | 24 of 53 | 8 of 11 | 3 of 4 | 24 of 52 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 15 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dustin Stoltzfus | 5 of 13 | 38% | 2 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Nursulton Ruziboev | 13 of 27 | 48% | 8 of 19 | 2 of 4 | 3 of 4 | 11 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Dustin Stoltzfus | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Nursulton Ruziboev | 11 of 19 | 57% | 9 of 17 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 14 | |
| 3 | Dustin Stoltzfus | 14 of 21 | 66% | 2 of 7 | 2 of 4 | 10 of 10 | 13 of 19 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Nursulton Ruziboev | 11 of 22 | 50% | 7 of 17 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Nursulton Ruziboev confidently, calling him an absolute beast. He highlights Ruziboev's massive 6'5" frame, wrestling and grappling prowess, and a good chin. He notes that Ruziboev's only UFC loss was to Buckley at 170 lbs, which is credible. Angelo expects Ruziboev to be patient, eat a few shots, and then pour it on later. He finds the -280 odds affordable and suggests the over might be sneaky good if a round line is available.
Big Brady picks Dustin Stoltzfus as a plus-240 underdog, citing Ruziboev's poor takedown defense and lack of volume. He believes Stoltzfus can take Ruziboev down and control him, making Ruziboev's power useless. He expects a decision win if Stoltzfus fights smart.
The host acknowledges Ruziboev's power and striking advantage but notes he has been grinded out by lesser grapplers. He believes Stoltzfus, with his BJJ black belt and wrestling improvements from Extreme Couture, can get Ruziboev to the ground and grind him out from top position, either winning on the scorecards or finding a submission.
The Guru picks Nursulton Ruziboev, calling him a dirty fighter who moves well and has a ton of experience. He thinks Ruziboev is better at middleweight with more power. He notes Stoltzfus has been styled on by opponents like Bruno Ferreira and doesn't see a path to victory. He predicts a TKO in the first or second round.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 0 | 7 of 11 | 63% | 13 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Marc-André Barriault | 1 | 13 of 20 | 65% | 23 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 3:54 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dustin Stoltzfus | 0 | 7 of 11 | 63% | 13 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Marc-André Barriault | 1 | 13 of 20 | 65% | 23 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 3:54 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 7 of 11 | 63% | 6 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 7 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| Marc-André Barriault | 13 of 20 | 65% | 11 of 17 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 5 | 7 of 10 | 4 of 5 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dustin Stoltzfus | 7 of 11 | 63% | 6 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 7 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| Marc-André Barriault | 13 of 20 | 65% | 11 of 17 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 5 | 7 of 10 | 4 of 5 |
Angelo picks Marc-André Barriault, expecting him to weather an early storm from Dustin Stoltzfus and take over with volume. He notes Barriault has impressive striking volume (almost 6 sig strikes per minute) but is also hit a lot. He thinks Stoltzfus is dangerous early with power but has a questionable chin. He suggests betting the over if a 1.5 round line is available, as the fight could go long.
Big Brady picks Marc-André Barriault to win by decision. He likes Barriault's cardio, volume, and takedown defense. He thinks Stoltzfus's striking is not good and that Barriault will piece him up over 15 minutes. Brady expects Barriault to stuff takedowns and outwork Stoltzfus on the feet.
Cody picks Marc-André Barriault, citing his pressure, power, and volume advantage over Stoltzfus. He notes that Stoltzfus relies on wrestling but has poor takedown success against strong grapplers, and Barriault's takedown defense is solid. He also mentions Stoltzfus's recent KO loss and potential psychological issues, and believes Barriault can finish him late or win a decision.
Daniel Vreeland picks Marc-André Barriault, citing his durability and tendency to get better as the fight progresses. He questions Dustin Stoltzfus's confidence and ability to handle adversity, noting that Barriault will expose any weaknesses in cardio or chin. Vreeland acknowledges Stoltzfus's skills but believes Barriault's toughness and pressure will prevail, though the price (-205) makes it a pass for betting.
Lucrative James picks Marc-André Barriault, expecting him to dominate with pace and pressure in the clinch. He believes Stoltzfus will be competitive in round one but fade, and that Barriault will get a third-round finish or decision. He highlights Barriault's body shots and uppercuts in the clinch.
Barriault is coming back too quickly after a knockout, but if his durability holds up, he should put pace and pressure on Stoltzfus and finish him in the second or third round via TKO.
Paul agrees with Cody, adding that Stoltzfus's recent facial fracture and nerve damage may affect his performance. He notes that Barriault's constant pressure and power should overwhelm Stoltzfus, and he sees a potential late stoppage. He also suggests live betting Barriault if he loses the first round.
The Guru picks Marc-André Barriault over Dustin Stoltzfus, believing Barriault's pace and activity will be decisive. He notes Stoltzfus lacks finishing ability and cardio, while Barriault keeps a high output. He expects a decision win for Barriault.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brunno Ferreira | 1 | 24 of 36 | 66% | 27 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 0 | 18 of 40 | 45% | 20 of 44 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 2 | 0 | 1:31 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brunno Ferreira | 1 | 24 of 36 | 66% | 27 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 0 | 18 of 40 | 45% | 20 of 44 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 2 | 0 | 1:31 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brunno Ferreira | 24 of 36 | 66% | 16 of 27 | 6 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 22 of 33 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 18 of 40 | 45% | 12 of 34 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 13 of 34 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brunno Ferreira | 24 of 36 | 66% | 16 of 27 | 6 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 22 of 33 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 18 of 40 | 45% | 12 of 34 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 13 of 34 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 3 |
Angelo picks Brunno Ferreira, citing his insane power against Dustin Stoltzfus's questionable chin. He notes that all of Ferreira's wins are finishes, and Stoltzfus has been knocked out before. He thinks it's a trap fight because it seems too easy, but he is falling into the trap. He predicts Ferreira wins inside the distance.
Big Brady picks Brunno Ferreira to win by first-round knockout. He highlights Ferreira's incredible one-punch power and vicious ground and pound. He notes that Stoltzfus is hitable with 48% striking defense and that Ferreira will follow up if he hurts him. He mentions a potential live bet on Stoltzfus if he survives the first round.
Cody picks Stoltzfus as a greasy underdog, noting that Ferreira is a first-round knockout artist with questionable cardio and wild striking. Stoltzfus has decent cardio, wrestling, and BJJ, and has been competitive against tough opponents. Cody believes if Stoltzfus can survive the first round, he can take over with his grappling and pressure. He sees value in the plus money and expects Stoltzfus to win by decision or late submission.
Daniel picks Stoltzfus as a live dog, believing Ferreira is too small for middleweight and that Stoltzfus can survive the early onslaught and take over after the seven-minute mark. He notes Ferreira's all-first-round finishes but criticizes his awkward movement and lack of in-between striking. He warns that Stoltzfus stands straight up and gets hit early, but if he can drag the fight out, his grappling and experience could pay off.
Jacob picks Brunno Ferreira, agreeing with Angelo. He notes that Stoltzfus has a suspect chin and Ferreira has big power. However, he warns that if the fight gets out of the first round, Ferreira might fade. He has Ferreira in a parlay but is not betting him heavily. He plans to live bet Stoltzfus if the first round ends without a finish.
Stoltzfus has a reach and height advantage, and his straight shots down the pipe should keep Ferreira at bay. Ferreira is a power puncher with a BJJ black belt, but Stoltzfus showed improved performance against Soriano. At +220, Stoltzfus is a good underdog pick to win by decision, possibly even a late finish.
Paul sees this as a dogger pass situation. He acknowledges Ferreira's first-round knockout power but notes the lack of value on Ferreira by knockout props. He thinks Stoltzfus could win if he survives the early storm, but he's not confident enough to make a pick.
The Guru picks Ferreira to 'smoke' Stoltzfus, saying Stoltzfus isn't the same level of danger on the feet and will be more scared in the fight. He notes Ferreira has KO power and that Stoltzfus's wins aren't impressive (e.g., Dwight Grant, Punahele Soriano). He expects a KO win for Ferreira.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 0 | 31 of 73 | 42% | 33 of 76 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Punahele Soriano | 1 | 64 of 123 | 52% | 78 of 140 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 1 | 0 | 2:12 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dustin Stoltzfus | 0 | 22 of 47 | 46% | 22 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Punahele Soriano | 1 | 41 of 79 | 51% | 43 of 82 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0:29 | |
| 2 | Dustin Stoltzfus | 0 | 9 of 26 | 34% | 11 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Punahele Soriano | 0 | 23 of 44 | 52% | 35 of 58 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:43 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 31 of 73 | 42% | 18 of 56 | 9 of 11 | 4 of 6 | 30 of 72 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Punahele Soriano | 64 of 123 | 52% | 24 of 79 | 23 of 27 | 17 of 17 | 60 of 116 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dustin Stoltzfus | 22 of 47 | 46% | 13 of 35 | 7 of 9 | 2 of 3 | 21 of 46 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Punahele Soriano | 41 of 79 | 51% | 15 of 51 | 17 of 19 | 9 of 9 | 37 of 72 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Dustin Stoltzfus | 9 of 26 | 34% | 5 of 21 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 3 | 9 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Punahele Soriano | 23 of 44 | 52% | 9 of 28 | 6 of 8 | 8 of 8 | 23 of 44 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Punahele Soriano to win by first-round knockout, citing Soriano's power and wrestling advantage. He notes Soriano has eight knockouts, seven in the first round, and that Stoltzfus is hittable. However, he expresses concern about Soriano's cardio if the fight gets extended, but believes Soriano will finish early.
Cody picks Soriano, noting his power and wrestling base. He thinks Soriano's size advantage is not as big as usual and that Stoltzfus's chin is questionable. He mentions Soriano's cardio issues but believes he can finish early. He likes the Soriano round one KO prop at +335.
Lucrative James picks Punahele Soriano, stating that Dustin Stoltzfus is too hitable and has poor striking defense. He believes Soriano will knock him out, likely in round one. He notes that Soriano is a deserved favorite and could be even higher than the current line.
Soriano has explosive power and typically finishes opponents early. Stoltzfus has a chin issue and was knocked out quickly in his last fight. Soriano is expected to crash the pocket and land big shots for a knockout. However, his gas tank is a concern if the fight goes past the first round. The minus 300 price is steep, so a round 1 prop or under 1.5 rounds is recommended.
Paul picks Soriano but is not super confident. He thinks Soriano's wrestling and power should be enough against Stoltzfus, who has no real X-factor. He notes Soriano's cardio issues but believes the lower level of competition will allow Soriano to look better. He also mentions Stoltzfus's COVID issues and questionable chin.
The MMA Guru picks Punahele Soriano, citing his finishing ability and athleticism. He believes Dustin Stoltzfus lacks knockout power and is coming off a long layoff and a KO loss. He predicts Soriano will get a KO in the second round or late in the first.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abusupiyan Magomedov | 1 | 7 of 7 | 100% | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 0 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Abusupiyan Magomedov | 1 | 7 of 7 | 100% | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 0 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abusupiyan Magomedov | 7 of 7 | 100% | 6 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 |
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Abusupiyan Magomedov | 7 of 7 | 100% | 6 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 |
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo leans toward Dustin Stoltzfus because of high-level experience, noting that Abusupiyan Magomedov has not fought this level of competition. He thinks Stoltzfus can use takedowns to control for a win, similar to his last fight. He calls it a toss-up and a very low confidence pick.
Big Brady picks Abusupiyan Magomedov to win by decision. He notes that Magomedov has a significant striking advantage and good wrestling, while Stoltzfus has poor takedown defense and striking defense. The only concern is Magomedov's 20-month layoff, but he doesn't think Stoltzfus can exploit it. He expects Magomedov to control the fight wherever it goes.
Cody picks Dustin Stoltzfus as a dog, arguing that Abusupiyan Magomedov is overrated with a padded record, poor wrestling, and a suspect chin. He notes that Magomedov has been inactive and has injury issues, while Stoltzfus has better cardio and top control. Cody believes Stoltzfus can tire Magomedov out and win by pressure and grappling.
Daniel Levi picks Abusupiyan Magomedov but is not confident, noting that Magomedov's fights can be close and that Stoltzfus has been competitive in his losses. He acknowledges Magomedov's talent but questions the dominance at -260. He does not bet.
The host is very confident in Magomedov, citing his superior striking, range control, and ability to mix in grappling. He dismisses Stoltzfus's only UFC win as unimpressive and believes Magomedov is outmatched everywhere. He predicts a finish inside the distance, possibly by submission or knockout.
Paul picks Abusupiyan Magomedov, but with low confidence. He thinks Magomedov's power and striking are better than Stoltzfus's, and that Stoltzfus's wrestling may not be good enough to take Magomedov down. Paul says he will not bet the -270 line and is not confident in the pick.
The MMA Guru picks Abusupiyan Magomedov over Dustin Stoltzfus, citing Magomedov's size, athleticism, and grappling ability. He believes Stoltzfus lacks the power or explosiveness to trouble Magomedov early, and if the fight goes past the first round, Magomedov will win. He predicts a second or third round TKO finish for Magomedov.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 0 | 52 of 100 | 52% | 54 of 102 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Dwight Grant | 0 | 49 of 112 | 43% | 102 of 173 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 4:17 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dustin Stoltzfus | 0 | 23 of 35 | 65% | 23 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Dwight Grant | 0 | 17 of 43 | 39% | 17 of 43 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:26 | |
| 2 | Dustin Stoltzfus | 0 | 14 of 28 | 50% | 16 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Dwight Grant | 0 | 20 of 38 | 52% | 31 of 52 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:51 | |
| 3 | Dustin Stoltzfus | 0 | 15 of 37 | 40% | 15 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Dwight Grant | 0 | 12 of 31 | 38% | 54 of 78 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 52 of 100 | 52% | 35 of 79 | 7 of 9 | 10 of 12 | 50 of 97 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Dwight Grant | 49 of 112 | 43% | 23 of 81 | 7 of 8 | 19 of 23 | 35 of 88 | 3 of 4 | 11 of 20 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dustin Stoltzfus | 23 of 35 | 65% | 19 of 30 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 4 | 21 of 32 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Dwight Grant | 17 of 43 | 39% | 7 of 30 | 2 of 3 | 8 of 10 | 15 of 40 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Dustin Stoltzfus | 14 of 28 | 50% | 5 of 16 | 5 of 7 | 4 of 5 | 14 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Dwight Grant | 20 of 38 | 52% | 12 of 29 | 4 of 4 | 4 of 5 | 10 of 21 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 16 | |
| 3 | Dustin Stoltzfus | 15 of 37 | 40% | 11 of 33 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 15 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Dwight Grant | 12 of 31 | 38% | 4 of 22 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 8 | 10 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 |
Angelo picks Dwight Grant as the overall better fighter, but is hesitant due to Grant's chin and cardio issues, and Stoltzfus's power. He notes both fighters have flaws and advises against betting due to too many traps.
Big Brady picks Dwight Grant to win by decision, but with very low confidence. He notes that Grant is hit-or-miss and hard to predict. He thinks Grant's takedown defense and striking should be enough to outpoint Stoltzfus, who is a grappler but may not be able to get the fight down. He mentions Grant is moving up a weight class, which is a concern.
Cody picks Stoltzfus as a slight underdog, citing his policy of fading Dwight Grant as a favorite. He notes Grant's low output, poor cardio, and tendency to lose close fights. He believes Stoltzfus can take Grant down and grind out a win, but he is not betting it.
Daniel Levi picks Dustin Stoltzfus for the upset, believing he is better across the board. He notes Grant's low output, age, and recent decline, while Stoltzfus's 0-3 UFC start was against grapplers, not strikers like Grant. He expects Stoltzfus to land takedowns and possibly get a submission, and considers betting him at underdog odds.
Paul also picks Stoltzfus, arguing that Grant's power will be less effective at 185 and that Stoltzfus has better grappling. He notes that Grant has been taken down by lesser fighters and that Stoltzfus can exploit that. However, he calls it a dogger pass and won't bet it.
The MMA Guru picks Dwight Grant over Dustin Stoltzfus, emphasizing Grant's power advantage and tougher division background. He criticizes Stoltzfus's lack of impressive wins, noting losses to Kyle Daukaus and Rodolfo Vieira, and believes Grant's size and reach will be decisive. He predicts a KO victory for Grant, as Stoltzfus has been finished in kickboxing and Grant's power exceeds that of Stoltzfus's previous opponents.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gerald Meerschaert | 0 | 12 of 32 | 37% | 51 of 72 | 4 of 4 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 7:27 |
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 0 | 11 of 22 | 50% | 19 of 30 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 3 | 0 | 3:14 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gerald Meerschaert | 0 | 5 of 11 | 45% | 24 of 30 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:21 |
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 0 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 7 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 2:03 | |
| 2 | Gerald Meerschaert | 0 | 5 of 11 | 45% | 24 of 30 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 3:56 |
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 0 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 7 of 8 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Gerald Meerschaert | 0 | 2 of 10 | 20% | 3 of 12 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:10 |
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 0 | 3 of 12 | 25% | 5 of 14 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 0 | 1:11 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gerald Meerschaert | 12 of 32 | 37% | 8 of 28 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 24 | 0 of 1 | 5 of 7 |
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 11 of 22 | 50% | 8 of 19 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 21 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gerald Meerschaert | 5 of 11 | 45% | 3 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 4 of 5 | 80% | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Gerald Meerschaert | 5 of 11 | 45% | 3 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 4 of 5 | 80% | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Gerald Meerschaert | 2 of 10 | 20% | 2 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 8 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 3 of 12 | 25% | 2 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Grappler faces grappler in the preliminary headliner, as grizzled veteran Meerschaert (33-14, 8-6 UFC) comes in with more submission wins (25) than his opponent Stoltzfus (13-3, 0-2 UFC) has in total professional appearances (16). Keeping a close eye on the proceedings will be referee Mark Smith, who observes the middleweights come forward without any interest in touching gloves. Meerschaert lands first with an overhand right, and Stoltzfus greets him in the middle and throws back with bad intentions. “GM3” delivers a clean kick straight to the liver, and when Stoltzfus absorbs it, Meerschaert crashes forward to hit a double that sets Stoltzfus on his backside. Seated against the fence, Stoltzfus holds on Meerschaert’s neck with a guillotine choke, but Meerschaert is not remotely concerned as he pulls his opponent from away from the fence and steps over to try to claim guard. Stoltzfus clings to a shoulder lock from his back, and again, Meerschaert does not register this as he slowly works his way to secure full mount. Stoltzfus manages to get Meerschaert’s legs back to settle for half guard, and Meerschaert mounts him until he gets pulled back once more. Stoltzfus explodes back to his feet, where he searches for a single. Stoltzfus finds himself in a precarious position as Meerschaert grabs hold of a combined armbar and kneebar, but Stoltzfus is able to wriggle both limbs out so that he can take top position. Meerschaert scrambles when Stoltzfus starts to score with elbows, and he gets to his knees but Stoltzfus is ready for him. As soon as Stoltzfus puts Meerschaert on his back, Meerschaert reintroduces himself with a speedy armbar. Stoltzfus fights out of danger, where he gets into side control with Meerschaert on his side. Stoltzfus ends up in half guard delivering some ground-and-pound right to the bell, concluding the close first frame in top position.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Meerschaert
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Meerschaert
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Meerschaert
Round 2
The middleweights start throwing hands right out of the gate, when Meerschaert sneaking in a right hand and ducking back from a looping punch coming his way. They swing for the fences, and Meerschaert throws himself off-balance in the exchange. Stoltzfus throws a leg kick, and it gets caught, but he does not manage to do anything with it before setting it down. They both miss with high-intensity kicks, although Meerschaert is able to close the distance and deliver a knee square to the solar plexus. As they tie up, Stoltzfus pursues a takedown, and he grounds Meerschaert and falls into a guillotine choke setup. Stoltzfus pops his head out without much concern, and he stacks Meerschaert up to prohibit him from setting up anything with his legs. Meerschaert pushes off with his feet on the thighs, but Stoltzfus is able to leap back down in time before “GM3” can stand. This time, Meerschaert closes his guard, and Stoltzfus keeps his weight pressed tightly on his foe. Every so often, Stoltzfus sits up to throw a strike, and he comes back down before Meerschaert can do anything off his back. Meerschaert looks for an armlock as Stoltzfus again stacks him up, but there is nothing doing while Stoltzfus clings to him in half guard. When Stoltzfus lands a few strikes from above, Meerschaert bursts back up and gets to his knees. Stoltzfus attacks with a brabo choke when Meerschaert is in this position, and he puts his leg above Meerschaert’s neck to set up a modified version of a Peruvian necktie. “GM3” defends against it, only for Stoltzfus to jump back down when Meerschaert is on his back to land some ground strikes. He ends the second round doing damage with ground-and-pound.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Stoltzfus
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Stoltzfus
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Stoltzfus
Round 3
Meerschaert blocks an immediate high kick when Stoltzfus attacks to begin the final round, and he lays into Stoltzfus with an overhand right. Stoltzfus turns him around and hits the double, and Meerschaert defends again with a guillotine choke that is suddenly tight. Stoltzfus turns and twists while the arm is beneath his chin, but he calmly, methodically slips his neck out of the choke. Meerschaert powers back up, and he blocks a punch to go for one of his own. The two tired men throw bombs, and Meerschaert lands and absorbs a strike coming back at him. Stoltzfus drives through with a double, putting Meerschaert on his back and landing in side control. Meerschaert once more scrambles, letting Stoltzfus slip out the back door so he can wind up on top. Stoltzfus stays on his knees as Meerschaert tries to take his back, until Stoltzfus suddenly turns to attack a leglock. “GM3” spins through it to free his ankle, and he aims to take Stoltzfus’ back and manages to get a hook in.
From there, the Roufusport grappling coach instantly attacks the neck, sinking in a rear-naked choke as the arm slides beneath the chin. Stoltzfus tries to punch Meerschaert twice from behind his head to do something, anything. He promptly bails on punching, and taps out as he would be put to sleep seconds later.
This is a big comeback for “GM3,” who has notched three submission wins in a row over three tough opponents.
The Official Result
Gerald Meerschaert def. Dustin Stoltzfus R3 2:58 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Angelo picks Gerald Meerschaert because he is dangerous on the ground and has proven he can survive being stunned. He notes that Meerschaert's chin looked better in his last fight, but Stoltzfus has legitimate power. Angelo thinks Meerschaert will avoid the KO, get the fight to the ground, and win by submission. However, he acknowledges a Stoltzfus KO is very live.
Big Brady picks Gerald Meerschaert, citing his superior experience, striking improvements, and dangerous ground game (94% finish rate, 76% submission rate). He is not sold on Stoltzfus, who was out-struck by Kyle Daukaus and slowed down against Rodolfo Vieira. He expects Meerschaert to get a late submission.
Cody is confident in Meerschaert, noting his experience, BJJ, and better striking and wrestling than Stoltzfus. He points out that Stoltzfus has poor takedown defense and has been submitted by lower-level opponents. Cody thinks Meerschaert can win wherever the fight goes, though he warns about Meerschaert's chin. He considers -235 a fair price.
Daniel Levi leans toward Gerald Meerschaert but is not comfortable laying -230. He respects Meerschaert's submission record and veteran savvy, but notes that Meerschaert typically wins as an underdog. Levi thinks Stoltzfus is no slouch and has faced tough competition, but believes Meerschaert's experience and ground game will be the difference. He expects a competitive fight where Meerschaert eventually finds a submission or wins a decision, but advises passing the bet or taking the dog.
Jacob picks Dustin Stoltzfus, believing he will dominate the fight. He thinks Meerschaert's takedowns are sloppy and that Stoltzfus will defend them and win the striking exchanges. Jacob notes that Stoltzfus outstruck Rodolfo Vieira 2-1 before being submitted, and that Meerschaert's chin is questionable. He expects Stoltzfus to knock Meerschaert out.
The host leans towards Meerschaert inside the distance at even money. He notes that Meerschaert is hittable but has great submissions, and Stoltzfus is not UFC quality. However, he is not passionate due to Meerschaert's inconsistency.
Paul agrees with Meerschaert, noting his submission record and cardio. He thinks Stoltzfus hasn't shown anything in the UFC to get excited about. Paul doesn't love laying -235 but sees Meerschaert as the clear better fighter.
The MMA Guru calls this one of the locks of the card, picking Gerald Meerschaert to win by second-round guillotine choke. He notes Meerschaert has been looking great recently and Stoltzfus is one-dimensional. He thinks Stoltzfus cannot take Meerschaert down or submit him, and Meerschaert will land big shots and latch on a guillotine when Stoltzfus shoots for a takedown.
Punahele Soriano - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ramiz Brahimaj | 0 | 38 of 67 | 56% | 43 of 73 | 3 of 11 | 27% | 0 | 0 | 3:48 |
| Punahele Soriano | 0 | 40 of 92 | 43% | 66 of 123 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 5:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ramiz Brahimaj | 0 | 31 of 56 | 55% | 31 of 56 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Punahele Soriano | 0 | 17 of 52 | 32% | 21 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:20 | |
| 2 | Ramiz Brahimaj | 0 | 5 of 7 | 71% | 10 of 12 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:47 |
| Punahele Soriano | 0 | 7 of 12 | 58% | 26 of 32 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:35 | |
| 3 | Ramiz Brahimaj | 0 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 2 of 5 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 1:59 |
| Punahele Soriano | 0 | 16 of 28 | 57% | 19 of 32 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 2:05 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ramiz Brahimaj | 38 of 67 | 56% | 16 of 42 | 21 of 24 | 1 of 1 | 35 of 63 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Punahele Soriano | 40 of 92 | 43% | 29 of 79 | 11 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 25 of 74 | 14 of 15 | 1 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ramiz Brahimaj | 31 of 56 | 55% | 13 of 37 | 17 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 30 of 54 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Punahele Soriano | 17 of 52 | 32% | 14 of 47 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 50 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 | |
| 2 | Ramiz Brahimaj | 5 of 7 | 71% | 2 of 3 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Punahele Soriano | 7 of 12 | 58% | 2 of 7 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 5 | 6 of 6 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Ramiz Brahimaj | 2 of 4 | 50% | 1 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Punahele Soriano | 16 of 28 | 57% | 13 of 25 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 19 | 7 of 8 | 0 of 1 |
Angelo picks Punahele Soriano, citing his power, wrestling credentials, and ability to stay safe on top. He acknowledges Ramiz Brahimaj's submission threat but believes Soriano's wrestling and striking will prevail. He notes the line has flipped but remains confident in Soriano.
Big Brady picks Ramiz Brahimaj to defeat Punahele Soriano, citing Brahimaj's recent underdog wins and Soriano's poor takedown defense and cardio. He notes Soriano has success early but fades, and Brahimaj is tough and has good submissions. He predicts Brahimaj will survive the early storm, mix in takedowns, and submit Soriano in the second round. He references Soriano's losses to Dustin Stoltzfus and Nick Maximov as evidence of his vulnerability.
Cody thinks Brahimaj's jiu-jitsu and hometown crowd give him an edge. He notes Soriano's inconsistency and cardio issues. He expects Brahimaj to win by submission or decision.
Connor agrees with Zane, picking Soriano. He notes that Soriano's recent wins are more trustworthy and indicative of a step forward, while Brahimaj's wins are against fighters with no defense. Connor also mentions that if Court McGee could grind Brahimaj, Soriano can too.
The host leans towards Soriano, noting his advantage on the feet with power and aggression, and his improved cardio since dropping to welterweight. He believes Soriano can outstrike and outgrapple Brahimaj if his gas tank holds up. However, he is not betting because Brahimaj has proven cardio and could make Soriano work hard, and both fighters are evolving, making it difficult to predict which version shows up.
James picks Ramiz Brahimaj, citing his superior jiu-jitsu and front choke series. He notes that Soriano's wrestling could put him in danger of submissions, and that Brahimaj is the better striker over 15 minutes. James believes Brahimaj will catch Soriano in a front headlock and submit him.
Brahimaj has improved his cardio and takedown defense since moving to Chicago, and he is more calculated now. Soriano is a power puncher but relies on wrestling to grind out wins, and he doesn't threaten submissions. Brahimaj's grappling defense should be good enough to keep it standing or scramble, and he can catch Soriano in a submission. The under 2.5 rounds also makes sense.
Paul thinks Soriano at 170 is a different beast with better cardio and power. He acknowledges Brahimaj's grappling but thinks Soriano's wrestling and strength will be enough. He calls it a pick'em and leans Soriano.
The MMA Guru picks Punahele Soriano, citing his nasty knockout power, solid chin, and physicality. He believes Soriano won't be lost on the feet and can avoid Brahimaj's guillotine. He notes Brahimaj's wins are over lesser competition and that Soriano has dominated grapplers before. He predicts a TKO finish in round one or two.
Zane picks Soriano, believing he will bully Brahimaj with his athleticism and power. He notes that Soriano has options and is too dangerous. If Soriano chooses to wrestle, he might get caught in a submission, but that's a thin chance. Zane trusts Soriano's recent wins more than Brahimaj's.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Punahele Soriano | 0 | 39 of 54 | 72% | 163 of 200 | 4 of 11 | 36% | 1 | 1 | 12:35 |
| Nikolay Veretennikov | 0 | 9 of 12 | 75% | 34 of 37 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 2 | 0 | 0:49 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Punahele Soriano | 0 | 21 of 30 | 70% | 82 of 105 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 4:05 |
| Nikolay Veretennikov | 0 | 6 of 7 | 85% | 21 of 22 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:21 | |
| 2 | Punahele Soriano | 0 | 11 of 13 | 84% | 34 of 44 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 | 1 | 4:13 |
| Nikolay Veretennikov | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:28 | |
| 3 | Punahele Soriano | 0 | 7 of 11 | 63% | 47 of 51 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 4:17 |
| Nikolay Veretennikov | 0 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Punahele Soriano | 39 of 54 | 72% | 38 of 51 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 37 of 49 |
| Nikolay Veretennikov | 9 of 12 | 75% | 2 of 2 | 6 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 6 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Punahele Soriano | 21 of 30 | 70% | 21 of 28 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 20 of 27 |
| Nikolay Veretennikov | 6 of 7 | 85% | 1 of 1 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Punahele Soriano | 11 of 13 | 84% | 11 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 12 |
| Nikolay Veretennikov | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Punahele Soriano | 7 of 11 | 63% | 6 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 10 |
| Nikolay Veretennikov | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Soriano (-245), Veretennikov (+200)
Round 1
Two knockout-inclined welterweights will ply their trades against one another with continued preliminary action. A win for Soriano (11-4, 5-4 UFC) would keep him above the dreaded .500 line in the promotion, while Kazakhstan’s Veretennikov (13-6, 1-2 UFC) needs to get past “Story Time” to reach that level. If a brawl ensues, referee Marc Goddard will keep a lid on it as best he can. Before that prospective slugfest, they tap gloves.
Soriano takes right to the center of the cage, hopping back to avoid a stomp kick to the knee and springing ahead to fire off a body kick. He aims a second to the same spot, and when Veretennikov counters, Soriano charges with a double and takes Veretennikov off his feet. Veretennikov bounces off and up in the air, and with Soriano on his knees, he measures and blasts the Hawaiian with a mighty knee to the ribs. Veretennikov settles down and wraps up a guillotine choke with his left arm, and when Soriano lifts him up and slams him down, the choke briefly tightens. Soriano sits up and breaks out of the choke, and he starts raining down left hands. Veretennikov attacks back with his own offense from below, but the power differential is drastic from that position. Soriano keeps pounding on his opponent, briefly trapping his foe’s right arm beneath his knee to open up more shots.
Soriano switches to hammering Veretennikov with elbow after unanswered elbow, and his position tying Veretennikov up while not keeping him flat is pinning Veretennikov to the floor. Soriano’s left hands continue to bludgeon the Kazakhstan native, and even though Goddard is not anywhere close to considering stepping in, these consistent blows are draining him. Soriano holds Veretennikov down with his left arm and beats on his ribs with his right, and the ground-and-pound may not be devastating but it is effective as can be. He continues to drive punches down, developing a pattern similar to iambic pentameter in that he lands a soft blow and then a powerful one, and alternates them like ba-dum ba-dum as the sound of the impact echoes around the ring. The one-sided round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Soriano
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Soriano
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Soriano
Round 2
It takes Soriano 15 seconds to commit to a takedown, and he lifts Veretennikov up in the air and deposits him gingerly to the mat. Veretennikov defends instinctively with a guillotine choke, and Soriano uses this opportunity to trap him with a Von Preux shoulder choke. Veretennikov offers a thumbs-up to show he is fine, and he slowly manages to wriggle his neck out of danger. Soriano reintroduces himself with a blistering elbow from above, and even though he has his own leg stuck between Veretennikov’s, he seems to prefer this position lording over his adversary with ground strikes galore. Veretennikov does what he can to tie up Soriano and slow the beating, and Soriano lowers himself down to pursue an arm-triangle choke.
Veretennikov does not fall victim to the submission, so Soriano hacks at him with a pair of mean-spirited elbows. Soriano’s left hand keeps landing until Veretennikov wills himself to his feet, through sheer horsepower. Soriano trips and Veretennikov pounces, wrapping up a rear-naked choke and tightening it quickly. Soriano explodes out of the bad position and turns the Kazakh over, where he gets back into his groove of methodical ground attacks. Veretennikov flirts with an armbar to keep Soriano honest, but this only allows Soriano to hammer him with four or five long punches. Veretennikov sits up and gets in a position to aim a knee to the sternum, and he drives one or two in before the round wraps.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Soriano
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Soriano
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Soriano
Round 3
Hands are clapped to open Round 3, and Veretennikov strikes first with a punch to the body. That one strike is all he gets off before Soriano darts in to pursue a takedown. The two twirl around while Soriano hangs onto the single, and Veretennikov grips a guillotine around the side of the head to further threaten. Soriano lifts and slams Veretennikov with an exclamation point, freeing himself from the choke and pushing his hand off Veretennikov’s face. One of Veretennikov’s coaches claims that Soriano is out from the guillotine that Veretennikov is still holding, and Goddard tells that coach to knock it off as Soriano is fine. In fact, the Hawaiian postures up a moment or two later to get out of the sub, and he works the body and head when establishing himself. Goddard asks for more, so Soriano punches Veretennikov in the face.
Soriano stacks Veretennikov up, who is searching for an armbar or otherwise using a high guard to control or attack something. Soriano steps over easily to the side to break up the setup, and he pounds an elbow down on the jaw. As Soriano slows down, Goddard asks for more activity from the fighters. Not wanting to let them just sit around and smooch—figuratively speaking, of course—he stands the fighters up. Soriano takes a deep breath and shoots for a single from afar, and Veretennikov jumps for a guillotine choke and wraps it up while standing. Soriano’s eyes go wide as he is pulled down on top of the Kazakh, and Veretennikov squeezes the choke with all his might. Soriano signals thumbs-up as he slithers his neck out of danger, and he concludes the match with emphatic elbows.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Soriano (30-26 Soriano)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Soriano (30-27 Soriano)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Soriano (30-27 Soriano)
The Official Result
Punahele Soriano def. Nikolay Veretennikov via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Angelo trusts that Punahele Soriano will use his wrestling, as a Division III All-American, to win, despite his tendency to sometimes just strike. He notes Soriano has heavy hands but poor takedown defense, while Veretennikov is a powerful striker who can be taken down. His concern is that Soriano might abandon wrestling after a recent knockout win. He is not betting on this fight.
Big Brady likes Soriano, especially at welterweight, where he seems like a different animal with improved cardio and strength. He notes that Veretennikov has awful cardio and a poor ground game, and that Soriano can wrestle him, get him tired, and finish him on the mat. He predicts a second-round TKO for Soriano.
Connor agrees with Zane, picking Soriano but noting that it depends on whether Soriano fights well. He hopes to see a more aggressive, active, and wrestling-minded Soriano, as seen in his welterweight debut, but acknowledges that his previous opponents (Miguel Baeza and Eros Medich) were not reliable tests.
Soriano is expected to put his power on Veretennikov early, and if he doesn't finish within the first minute and a half, he will resort to wrestling and grind out a decision win.
The MMA Guru confidently picks Punahele Soriano, comparing him to Francisco Prado who gave Veretennikov trouble. He notes Soriano's power, pressure, and ability to close distance, while Veretennikov stands too upright and struggles with aggressive fighters. He predicts a first-round KO.
Zane picks Soriano because the welterweight move has made him feel bigger, stronger, and more confident, allowing him to wrestle more effectively. He notes that Veretennikov is a bad wrestler who gave up takedowns to Francisco Prado, and Soriano should be able to exploit that. However, he cautions that Soriano is prone to inactivity and single-idea offense.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Punahele Soriano | 1 | 13 of 17 | 76% | 13 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Uroš Medić | 0 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Punahele Soriano | 1 | 13 of 17 | 76% | 13 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Uroš Medić | 0 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Punahele Soriano | 13 of 17 | 76% | 12 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 9 |
| Uroš Medić | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Punahele Soriano | 13 of 17 | 76% | 12 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 9 |
| Uroš Medić | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Uroš Medić, citing his superior striking, speed, and power. He notes that Punahele Soriano's only path to victory is wrestling, but Medić's takedown defense is a concern. However, he believes Medić is the better striker and will land clean shots. He has Medić in a parlay with César Almeida, though he expresses some nervousness about the bet.
Big Brady sees a clear path for Soriano: take Medić down. He notes Medić's takedown defense and ground game are questionable, and Soriano looked dominant at welterweight against Baeza, landing 331 strikes. He worries Soriano might strike instead of wrestle, but believes if he uses his wrestling, he can win by TKO or decision. He picks Soriano to win, possibly by TKO via ground and pound.
Cody picks Medić, questioning Soriano's one good performance at 170 against a shot Miguel Baeza. He believes Medić's power and pace will cause Soriano to fatigue. He notes Medić's finishing ability and Soriano's history of gassing.
Connor picks Soriano because he believes Soriano's wrestling and physicality will be effective at welterweight. He notes that Soriano showed a grinding game against Miguel Baeza, and Medić is bad at dealing with sustained pressure and takedowns. While Soriano is uncreative and has shown little improvement, Connor thinks his size and strength advantage will allow him to control the fight. He acknowledges it's not a smart pick but sees a path.
Daniel notes Medić is more technically sound on the feet with better volume and diversity, while Soriano has big power in his left hand but shaky in-between and cardio concerns at welterweight. He thinks Medić will win the minutes, but Soriano could land a big shot or use wrestling. He picks Medić but is not interested in betting.
Lucrative James picks Uroš Medić to win, citing Medić's superior striking and cleaner kickboxing. He acknowledges Soriano's wrestling advantage and power, but believes Medić's skill on the feet will prevail over three rounds. He notes Soriano's cardio issues and that Medić has decent takedown defense. He also mentions that Soriano moved down from 185 and Medić moved up from 155, but still favors Medić's higher ceiling.
Soriano is a solid wrestler as shown in his welterweight debut against Miguel Baeza. He will get to his grappling, keep Medić on his back, and grind out a decision win as long as he doesn't get finished early.
Paul picks Soriano as a plus-money underdog, citing his impressive wrestling at 170 in his last fight. He expects fireworks and has bet under 1.5 rounds. He acknowledges Medić's danger but likes Soriano's path via takedowns.
The Guru picks Medić, noting his size as a big lightweight at welterweight, his KO of Tim Means, and his better technique and speed. He criticizes Soriano's recent performances, including losses to Dustin Stoltzfus and a poor showing against Miguel Baeza. He predicts an early TKO for Medić.
Zane picks Medić because he is a more dangerous finisher and expects Soriano to struggle to impose his game plan. Medić's movement and kicks could frustrate Soriano, who is hittable and plotting. Zane notes that Soriano's win over Baeza was more about Baeza's poor performance than Soriano's skill. Medić's ability to keep the fight in open space and avoid being clinched gives him the edge.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Punahele Soriano | 0 | 7 of 12 | 58% | 22 of 33 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 3 | 0 | 0:47 |
| Miguel Baeza | 0 | 144 of 175 | 82% | 331 of 394 | 5 of 6 | 83% | 0 | 0 | 10:58 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Punahele Soriano | 0 | 5 of 9 | 55% | 11 of 17 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 3 | 0 | 0:47 |
| Miguel Baeza | 0 | 42 of 59 | 71% | 54 of 80 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:27 | |
| 2 | Punahele Soriano | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Miguel Baeza | 0 | 49 of 59 | 83% | 93 of 111 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:46 | |
| 3 | Punahele Soriano | 0 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Miguel Baeza | 0 | 53 of 57 | 92% | 184 of 203 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 4:45 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Punahele Soriano | 7 of 12 | 58% | 0 of 1 | 6 of 8 | 1 of 3 | 5 of 9 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Miguel Baeza | 144 of 175 | 82% | 129 of 158 | 13 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 7 | 5 of 5 | 136 of 163 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Punahele Soriano | 5 of 9 | 55% | 0 of 1 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 2 | 3 of 6 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Miguel Baeza | 42 of 59 | 71% | 40 of 56 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 5 | 5 of 5 | 36 of 49 | |
| 2 | Punahele Soriano | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Miguel Baeza | 49 of 59 | 83% | 43 of 52 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 48 of 58 | |
| 3 | Punahele Soriano | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Miguel Baeza | 53 of 57 | 92% | 46 of 50 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 52 of 56 |
Angelo picks Punahele Soriano, citing Miguel Baeza's three-fight losing streak and two-year layoff, with his last two losses being knockouts. He notes that Soriano has power and wrestling, and while he has been losing, he has been active. He thinks Baeza's chin issues and ring rust are too much to overlook, and Soriano's power could be the difference.
Big Brady picks Miguel Baeza to win by second-round submission. He notes that Baeza is more well-rounded and skilled, but his chin is worrisome after knockout losses. He expects Baeza to survive the first round and then take over as Soriano gasses. He calls it a 'club and sub' finish.
Cody picks Baeza, noting that Soriano has poor cardio and takedown defense, and is moving down to welterweight after struggling at middleweight. Baeza is a BJJ black belt who has been focusing on grappling during his layoff. Cody believes if Baeza can survive the first round, he can take Soriano down and dominate. He expects Baeza to win by decision or submission.
Daniel leans Baeza as the better talent with a nasty jab and calf kicks, but questions his chin and confidence after recent knockout losses. He notes Soriano has power and could knock Baeza out if Baeza's defense is poor. He calls it a pass due to too many question marks.
Jacob picks Miguel Baeza, disagreeing with Angelo. He argues that even at 60-70% of his former self, Baeza has the tools to box up Soriano, who is coming down in weight. He notes that Baeza is fast and has good grappling, and Soriano lacks the speed to counter him. Jacob has placed a big bet on Baeza, believing he will style on Soriano.
Baeza is more complete with his calf kicking and striking, and Soriano's weight cut to welterweight may slow him down. Baeza should chip away and win a decision, but his durability and long layoff are concerns. Soriano has early KO power, so a hedge on Soriano by KO is possible. Leaning Baeza but likely passing.
Paul picks Soriano by knockout in round one, noting that Baeza has been knocked out before and Soriano has power. He acknowledges Soriano's cardio issues but thinks the move to welterweight could help. Paul bet Soriano by knockout at plus 300 and round one knockout at plus 675, expecting an early finish.
The Guru picks Baeza because he thinks Soriano is a middleweight moving down to welterweight, which won't work. He notes Baeza is a big welterweight with reach advantage and won't be bullied. He mentions Baeza took Colby Covington to the third round and didn't get smoked early, so Soriano's power shouldn't be a problem. He predicts a second or third-round finish for Baeza.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 0 | 31 of 73 | 42% | 33 of 76 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Punahele Soriano | 1 | 64 of 123 | 52% | 78 of 140 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 1 | 0 | 2:12 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dustin Stoltzfus | 0 | 22 of 47 | 46% | 22 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Punahele Soriano | 1 | 41 of 79 | 51% | 43 of 82 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0:29 | |
| 2 | Dustin Stoltzfus | 0 | 9 of 26 | 34% | 11 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Punahele Soriano | 0 | 23 of 44 | 52% | 35 of 58 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:43 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 31 of 73 | 42% | 18 of 56 | 9 of 11 | 4 of 6 | 30 of 72 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Punahele Soriano | 64 of 123 | 52% | 24 of 79 | 23 of 27 | 17 of 17 | 60 of 116 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dustin Stoltzfus | 22 of 47 | 46% | 13 of 35 | 7 of 9 | 2 of 3 | 21 of 46 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Punahele Soriano | 41 of 79 | 51% | 15 of 51 | 17 of 19 | 9 of 9 | 37 of 72 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Dustin Stoltzfus | 9 of 26 | 34% | 5 of 21 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 3 | 9 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Punahele Soriano | 23 of 44 | 52% | 9 of 28 | 6 of 8 | 8 of 8 | 23 of 44 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Punahele Soriano to win by first-round knockout, citing Soriano's power and wrestling advantage. He notes Soriano has eight knockouts, seven in the first round, and that Stoltzfus is hittable. However, he expresses concern about Soriano's cardio if the fight gets extended, but believes Soriano will finish early.
Cody picks Soriano, noting his power and wrestling base. He thinks Soriano's size advantage is not as big as usual and that Stoltzfus's chin is questionable. He mentions Soriano's cardio issues but believes he can finish early. He likes the Soriano round one KO prop at +335.
Lucrative James picks Punahele Soriano, stating that Dustin Stoltzfus is too hitable and has poor striking defense. He believes Soriano will knock him out, likely in round one. He notes that Soriano is a deserved favorite and could be even higher than the current line.
Soriano has explosive power and typically finishes opponents early. Stoltzfus has a chin issue and was knocked out quickly in his last fight. Soriano is expected to crash the pocket and land big shots for a knockout. However, his gas tank is a concern if the fight goes past the first round. The minus 300 price is steep, so a round 1 prop or under 1.5 rounds is recommended.
Paul picks Soriano but is not super confident. He thinks Soriano's wrestling and power should be enough against Stoltzfus, who has no real X-factor. He notes Soriano's cardio issues but believes the lower level of competition will allow Soriano to look better. He also mentions Stoltzfus's COVID issues and questionable chin.
The MMA Guru picks Punahele Soriano, citing his finishing ability and athleticism. He believes Dustin Stoltzfus lacks knockout power and is coming off a long layoff and a KO loss. He predicts Soriano will get a KO in the second round or late in the first.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roman Kopylov | 0 | 39 of 107 | 36% | 39 of 107 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Punahele Soriano | 0 | 82 of 128 | 64% | 82 of 128 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roman Kopylov | 0 | 18 of 46 | 39% | 18 of 46 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Punahele Soriano | 0 | 35 of 62 | 56% | 35 of 62 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:10 | |
| 2 | Roman Kopylov | 0 | 21 of 61 | 34% | 21 of 61 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Punahele Soriano | 0 | 47 of 66 | 71% | 47 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roman Kopylov | 39 of 107 | 36% | 35 of 101 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 33 of 98 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| Punahele Soriano | 82 of 128 | 64% | 56 of 101 | 14 of 15 | 12 of 12 | 76 of 120 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roman Kopylov | 18 of 46 | 39% | 18 of 46 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 17 of 45 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Punahele Soriano | 35 of 62 | 56% | 22 of 49 | 4 of 4 | 9 of 9 | 34 of 61 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Roman Kopylov | 21 of 61 | 34% | 17 of 55 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 53 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Punahele Soriano | 47 of 66 | 71% | 34 of 52 | 10 of 11 | 3 of 3 | 42 of 59 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Soriano (-165), Kopylov (+140)
Round 1
This middleweight scrap may not last long, and referee Kerry Hatley will need to keep his head on a swivel. Dueling 89% finish rates for Soriano (9-2, 3-2 UFC) and Kopylov (9-2, 1-2 UFC) crash into each other like ships in a storm, although neither man has ever been stopped by strikes. Before the fists meet faces, the fists bump into one another respectfully. Kopylov is quick to back off as Soriano comes out guns blazing, with a pair of overhand rights getting his attention in a hurry. “Story Time” suddenly goes for a double, and when that fails, he wings a huge left hand. Kopylov blocks the worst of the haymakers flying towards him, but Soriano is still gunning for him with that big left. Kopylov sticks out a jab to disrupt the swinging hammers, sticking and moving to make Soriano hit air. Kopylov chops at the lead calf and blocks high as he expects a big left aimed at him. He is correct, as it collides off the guard and he resets. Kopylov sticks out several jabs, chaining them into a right hand, and Soriano grits his teeth and slugs right back. Kopylov is more content to touch while Soriano is swinging for the bleachers, and this allows Kopylov to see the strikes coming and block the dangerous ones. The Russian pierces out a jab, splitting the guard repeatedly and stifling the worst of the worst that is fired his direction. The jab continues to find its home, a piston connecting with the nose again and again. Soriano whiffs on a bomb and bounces off the cage wall, and he takes a deep breath just three minutes into the match. Soriano winds up and misses on another overhand left, with Kopylov composed and moving comfortably. Kopylov chips at the leg and paws out jabs, and he shuts down a tackling double-leg entry from the Hawaiian. Kopylov leaves a jab out too long, and Soriano reaches him with a huge left. When Soriano advances, Kopylov turns the tables on him with his own tackle of a takedown that sets his man down briefly. When Soriano scrambles, Kopylov just lets him back up, and the two get back after it on the feet. Kopylov sticks “Story Time” with a pair of punches, and he backs off until the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov
Keith Shillan scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov
Jack Dankoff scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov
Round 2
The middleweights touch ‘em up to start, and Kopylov decides to lead the dance initially. With a fast chain of punches, he knocks Soriano back, and forces Soriano to attack from a different angle. Soriano slows himself down and starts loading up on single shots, but this lets Kopylov pop him again and again with a stinging jab. Soriano swats the jab out of the way to close in and fire, and he unloads a fastball of a left hand that just misses the mark by a matter of millimeters. Kopylov spins to crack the body like a whip with a spinning back kick, and Soriano takes it flush and groans. Soriano lets them close in so that he can pound a few uppercuts on the nose, and this marks up Kopylov’s nose. Kopylov keeps his right hand out, further disrupting the Hawaiian and frustrating him. Kopylov dogs body shots, and he rips a kick to the ribs as Soriano winces in pain. The Russian knows the body is the weakness, and he targets the majority of his blows at the midsection. Soriano, with every bit of his remaining energy, swings recklessly and keeps Kopylov honest enough to not put him away.
Kopylov takes a breath, and he smashes his shin in the Hawaiian's liver. Soriano is barely on his feet, frozen in time momentarily as he cannot even take a breath. Kopylov chains together a long salvo of punches, and Soriano shells up and bends over but does not go down. Knowing that there is nothing more Soriano has to offer, Hatley mercifully halts the fight.
With that sterling performance in the books, Kopylov has now become the first fighter to ever finish the durable Hawaiian.
The Official Result
Roman Kopylov def. Punahele Soriano R2 3:19 via TKO (Body Kick and Punches)
Angelo picks Soriano because he has more ways to win, including wrestling and power. He notes Kopylov is the better striker but Soriano's wrestling could be the difference. However, he doesn't trust Soriano to execute and advises not betting. He mentions Soriano's takedown defense issues and Kopylov's vulnerability to takedowns.
Big Brady picks Roman Kopylov as an upset, citing Kopylov's technical striking advantage and better cardio. He notes that Soriano has a wrestling background but rarely uses it, and if the fight stays on the feet, Kopylov has more tools and body kicks. He worries about Soriano's power but trusts Kopylov to outwork him as the fight goes on, predicting a decision win. He acknowledges Soriano could knock out Kopylov but leans toward Kopylov's consistency.
Cody leans towards Kopylov, agreeing that Soriano's cardio is a major issue. He notes Soriano fades after 7.5 minutes and doesn't wrestle due to gas concerns. He sees Kopylov as live if the fight goes the distance, and mentions a possible Kopylov by decision bet.
Connor picks Soriano because he is insanely tough and has many ways to win, including powerful striking and a solid wrestling background. He notes that Soriano can soak up damage and has a good left hand and low kicks. However, Connor expresses concern that Soriano doesn't always use his wrestling and can be inconsistent, but believes his toughness and power will carry him against Kopylov's predictable boxing.
Jacob picks Kopylov as a live underdog, believing he is the better striker and may even wrestle. He notes Soriano's poor defensive wrestling and Kopylov's toughness. He thinks Soriano can't be trusted and Kopylov has good value. He mentions Kopylov's camp and takedown defense.
Paul picks Kopylov as an underdog, citing Soriano's poor cardio and reluctance to wrestle. He notes Kopylov's improved performance against Dichirico and believes he can outwork Soriano with leg kicks and combinations. He mentions a possible Kopylov by decision prop at +430.
Zane picks Soriano because he is too tough and has too many other options, including wrestling and low kicks. He notes that Kopylov is a predictable boxer who struggles with opponents who can mix in kicks and takedowns. Zane also points out that Soriano's wrestling background gives him an edge if he chooses to use it, and that Kopylov's lack of defensive wrestling is a liability.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Punahele Soriano | 1 | 17 of 35 | 48% | 19 of 37 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Dalcha Lungiambula | 0 | 11 of 22 | 50% | 17 of 28 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:39 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Punahele Soriano | 0 | 11 of 28 | 39% | 13 of 30 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Dalcha Lungiambula | 0 | 10 of 21 | 47% | 16 of 27 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:39 | |
| 2 | Punahele Soriano | 1 | 6 of 7 | 85% | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Dalcha Lungiambula | 0 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Punahele Soriano | 17 of 35 | 48% | 8 of 25 | 9 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 26 | 4 of 5 | 4 of 4 |
| Dalcha Lungiambula | 11 of 22 | 50% | 6 of 16 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 9 of 18 | 0 of 2 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Punahele Soriano | 11 of 28 | 39% | 3 of 19 | 8 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 23 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Dalcha Lungiambula | 10 of 21 | 47% | 6 of 16 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 8 of 17 | 0 of 2 | 2 of 2 | |
| 2 | Punahele Soriano | 6 of 7 | 85% | 5 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 |
| Dalcha Lungiambula | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Dalcha Lungiambula, citing his power, takedown defense, and durability. He notes Soriano's poor takedown defense and that Lungiambula looked great in his last fight before a bad decision. He placed a half-unit moneyline bet and plans an inside the distance decision no action bet.
Big Brady picks Punahele Soriano to win by decision. He notes that both fighters have poor cardio, but Soriano's is slightly better. He thinks Soriano wins the first round and may take over later. He mentions that Soriano has better finishing ability but expects the fight to go to decision due to both fighters' durability. He does not recommend betting Soriano at -275.
Cody picks Soriano but with low confidence, noting that both fighters are untrustworthy. He acknowledges Soriano's durability and power, but also his poor wrestling and cardio. He believes Soriano's chin and training at a world-class gym give him an edge, but he won't bet this fight.
Daniel Levi leans Punahele Soriano but is not confident at the -225 price. He notes both fighters have knockout power and that Soriano is cleaner and more well-rounded, but Lungiambula is dangerous. He considers it closer than the odds suggest and wants more info on sparring sessions before committing.
Paul also picks Soriano but with hesitation, citing Lungiambula's tendency to gas out and make mistakes. He notes that Soriano has a good chin and has shown improvement. However, he agrees the -240 price is too steep and will not bet it.
The MMA Guru picks Punahele Soriano over Dalcha Lungiambula, citing Soriano's toughness and power. He notes Lungiambula's poor cardio and that Soriano is difficult to finish. He predicts Soriano will catch Lungiambula with body shots and knees in the clinch, leading to a second-round TKO.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Maximov | 0 | 45 of 63 | 71% | 74 of 93 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:37 |
| Punahele Soriano | 0 | 29 of 45 | 64% | 60 of 82 | 11 of 16 | 68% | 1 | 1 | 8:45 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nick Maximov | 0 | 15 of 21 | 71% | 22 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:40 |
| Punahele Soriano | 0 | 5 of 14 | 35% | 10 of 20 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 1 | 0 | 2:16 | |
| 2 | Nick Maximov | 0 | 21 of 32 | 65% | 32 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:54 |
| Punahele Soriano | 0 | 13 of 19 | 68% | 19 of 27 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 2:20 | |
| 3 | Nick Maximov | 0 | 9 of 10 | 90% | 20 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Punahele Soriano | 0 | 11 of 12 | 91% | 31 of 35 | 5 of 5 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 4:09 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Maximov | 45 of 63 | 71% | 28 of 46 | 17 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 20 of 38 | 2 of 2 | 23 of 23 |
| Punahele Soriano | 29 of 45 | 64% | 19 of 33 | 6 of 8 | 4 of 4 | 15 of 31 | 10 of 10 | 4 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nick Maximov | 15 of 21 | 71% | 11 of 17 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 8 |
| Punahele Soriano | 5 of 14 | 35% | 2 of 9 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Nick Maximov | 21 of 32 | 65% | 16 of 27 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 6 |
| Punahele Soriano | 13 of 19 | 68% | 11 of 17 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 14 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Nick Maximov | 9 of 10 | 90% | 1 of 2 | 8 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 9 |
| Punahele Soriano | 11 of 12 | 91% | 6 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 3 | 5 of 5 | 4 of 4 |
Angelo picks Punahele Soriano as a striker with power. He notes Soriano's takedown defense is untested but his striking is far superior to Maximov's. Maximov is a BJJ specialist with raw striking and okay takedowns. Angelo expects Soriano to win on the feet, but warns he gassed against Allen. If Soriano gasses, Maximov could take over, making it a live bet situation.
Cody agrees with Soriano but is hesitant due to Soriano's suspect cardio. He notes that Maximov has a wrestling background and could take the fight to the ground, where he has slick transitions. However, Soriano has the striking advantage and power. Cody worries that if Maximov gets an early takedown, Soriano may gas, but he still leans Soriano.
Daniel Levi picks Punahele Soriano, emphasizing his All-American wrestling background which should allow him to stuff Maximov's takedowns. He notes Soriano has faced tougher competition like Dusko Todorovic and Brendan Allen, while Maximov is less tested. Levi expects Soriano to land big shots after stuffing takedowns, potentially getting a finish. He respects Maximov's toughness but sees Soriano as the more proven fighter.
Lock of the Night picks Soriano, expecting him to defend takedowns and land enough on the feet to win a decision. He notes Soriano's wrestling background and power, but questions his durability if extended. He thinks Maximov will close distance irresponsibly and leave himself open to shots, but Soriano may not knock him out. He likes Soriano by decision at +350 and the over 1.5 rounds.
Paul thinks Soriano has the striking and power advantage, and if he keeps the fight upright, he will likely finish Maximov. He notes that Maximov's stand-up is a work in progress and that his grappling transitions looked solid but he struggled with cardio. Paul is concerned about Soriano's cardio but still picks him because Maximov's takedown entries may not be good enough.
The MMA Guru picks Punahele Soriano, criticizing Nick Maximov's lack of athleticism and power. He expects Soriano to stuff takedowns and land a big overhand right, knocking Maximov out in the first round. He references Maximov's fight with Cody Brundage where he did no damage, and calls the matchup a 'mismatch'.
Expert Picks (6)
Big Brady picks Punahele Soriano to win by first-round knockout, citing Soriano's power and wrestling advantage. He notes Soriano has eight knockouts, seven in the first round, and that Stoltzfus is hittable. However, he expresses concern about Soriano's cardio if the fight gets extended, but believes Soriano will finish early.
Cody picks Soriano, noting his power and wrestling base. He thinks Soriano's size advantage is not as big as usual and that Stoltzfus's chin is questionable. He mentions Soriano's cardio issues but believes he can finish early. He likes the Soriano round one KO prop at +335.
Lucrative James picks Punahele Soriano, stating that Dustin Stoltzfus is too hitable and has poor striking defense. He believes Soriano will knock him out, likely in round one. He notes that Soriano is a deserved favorite and could be even higher than the current line.
Soriano has explosive power and typically finishes opponents early. Stoltzfus has a chin issue and was knocked out quickly in his last fight. Soriano is expected to crash the pocket and land big shots for a knockout. However, his gas tank is a concern if the fight goes past the first round. The minus 300 price is steep, so a round 1 prop or under 1.5 rounds is recommended.
Paul picks Soriano but is not super confident. He thinks Soriano's wrestling and power should be enough against Stoltzfus, who has no real X-factor. He notes Soriano's cardio issues but believes the lower level of competition will allow Soriano to look better. He also mentions Stoltzfus's COVID issues and questionable chin.
The MMA Guru picks Punahele Soriano, citing his finishing ability and athleticism. He believes Dustin Stoltzfus lacks knockout power and is coming off a long layoff and a KO loss. He predicts Soriano will get a KO in the second round or late in the first.
Kevin is a fat fuck who missed weight by 6 pounds. Boxing looked good. Dustin gave it a go a few times but ultimately its b star vs a star
Kelvin is more skillful but should not be fighting at 185. Lazy sack of shit. Dustin is stiff in the pocket ect and gets dropped but has improved his striking. Also will be in better shape.