Career Averages - Miesha Tate
Career Averages - Julia Avila
Miesha Tate
Julia Avila
Miesha Tate - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yana Santos | 0 | 66 of 117 | 56% | 87 of 143 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:46 |
| Miesha Tate | 0 | 40 of 115 | 34% | 108 of 204 | 1 of 7 | 14% | 0 | 0 | 5:05 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yana Santos | 0 | 31 of 61 | 50% | 43 of 76 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:25 |
| Miesha Tate | 0 | 22 of 55 | 40% | 33 of 72 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:47 | |
| 2 | Yana Santos | 0 | 31 of 44 | 70% | 39 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:21 |
| Miesha Tate | 0 | 13 of 43 | 30% | 18 of 48 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:40 | |
| 3 | Yana Santos | 0 | 4 of 12 | 33% | 5 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Miesha Tate | 0 | 5 of 17 | 29% | 57 of 84 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:38 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yana Santos | 66 of 117 | 56% | 37 of 87 | 15 of 16 | 14 of 14 | 47 of 96 | 19 of 21 | 0 of 0 |
| Miesha Tate | 40 of 115 | 34% | 25 of 88 | 8 of 17 | 7 of 10 | 29 of 100 | 8 of 10 | 3 of 5 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yana Santos | 31 of 61 | 50% | 14 of 44 | 9 of 9 | 8 of 8 | 19 of 47 | 12 of 14 | 0 of 0 |
| Miesha Tate | 22 of 55 | 40% | 14 of 43 | 4 of 7 | 4 of 5 | 20 of 52 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Yana Santos | 31 of 44 | 70% | 20 of 33 | 6 of 6 | 5 of 5 | 24 of 37 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Miesha Tate | 13 of 43 | 30% | 6 of 28 | 4 of 10 | 3 of 5 | 7 of 36 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Yana Santos | 4 of 12 | 33% | 3 of 10 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Miesha Tate | 5 of 17 | 29% | 5 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 |
Angelo picks Yana Santos as the underdog, citing her superior striking and footwork. He believes Miesha Tate is one-dimensional and will struggle to get takedowns. He notes that Santos looked good in her last fight and that Tate has not evolved enough to compete. He also mentions a possible spread bet if available.
Big Brady picks Miesha Tate, citing a clear path to victory via takedowns and ground control. He notes that Yana Santos has poor takedown defense (42%) and looks bad on bottom, as seen against Holly Holm and Ketlen Vieira. Despite Tate's age (38) and inconsistency, her ground game is strong with submissions and ground and pound. He predicts Tate will finish by second-round submission.
Tate should take advantage of Santos's grappling shortcomings. She will mix up takedowns, get top control, and grind out a decision win.
The MMA Guru picks Miesha Tate, stating that Yana Santos has shown an inability to do anything on the ground. He believes Tate's wrestling and experience will be enough to outwrestle Santos. He criticizes the state of women's bantamweight but expects Tate to get the win.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miesha Tate | 0 | 32 of 37 | 86% | 127 of 152 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 1 | 0 | 10:55 |
| Julia Avila | 0 | 3 of 11 | 27% | 11 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Miesha Tate | 0 | 16 of 18 | 88% | 50 of 61 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:54 |
| Julia Avila | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Miesha Tate | 0 | 16 of 18 | 88% | 69 of 82 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 4:50 |
| Julia Avila | 0 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 10 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Miesha Tate | 0 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 8 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:11 |
| Julia Avila | 0 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miesha Tate | 32 of 37 | 86% | 31 of 35 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 27 of 29 |
| Julia Avila | 3 of 11 | 27% | 3 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Miesha Tate | 16 of 18 | 88% | 16 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 14 |
| Julia Avila | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Miesha Tate | 16 of 18 | 88% | 15 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 15 |
| Julia Avila | 2 of 7 | 28% | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Miesha Tate | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Julia Avila | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Cody takes Tate as an underdog. He argues that Tate has fought much higher competition and even in losses she's competitive. He notes Avila's wins are over low-level opponents and she has poor takedown defense. He thinks Tate's experience and wrestling will be the difference, and that Avila's layoff and knee injury are concerns. He believes Tate's back class carries her.
Lucrative James leans towards Miesha Tate, citing intangibles such as Julia Avila's layoff after having a baby (possibly via C-section) and her previous gym issues. He believes Tate's grappling can neutralize Avila's striking, and that Avila's path to victory is on the feet. He suggests attacking props like Tate by decision rather than the moneyline.
Tate is a former champion with a strong wrestling base, and she should be able to take Avila down and grind out a win. Avila is aggressive but lacks technical striking and has shown takedown defense issues. Both fighters are returning from long layoffs, but Tate's wrestling advantage and underdog odds make her a good value pick. The fight is expected to get easier for Tate in rounds two and three.
Paul sides with Avila, citing her strength and striking. He thinks Tate's motivation is questionable and that this could be a retirement fight. He notes Avila is the better striker and stronger, but acknowledges Tate's higher level of competition. He has a creeping suspicion that both fighters might retire after this.
The MMA Guru picks Miesha Tate as an underdog, noting her competitive fights against top competition like Ketlen Vieira and Lauren Murphy. He believes Julia Avila's inactivity and unimpressive last performance make Tate a live dog. He expects Tate to win by decision.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lauren Murphy | 0 | 102 of 184 | 55% | 128 of 211 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:18 |
| Miesha Tate | 0 | 85 of 164 | 51% | 121 of 201 | 0 of 7 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:05 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lauren Murphy | 0 | 26 of 48 | 54% | 35 of 57 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:32 |
| Miesha Tate | 0 | 25 of 47 | 53% | 38 of 60 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:04 | |
| 2 | Lauren Murphy | 0 | 38 of 66 | 57% | 53 of 82 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:41 |
| Miesha Tate | 0 | 32 of 55 | 58% | 46 of 69 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:00 | |
| 3 | Lauren Murphy | 0 | 38 of 70 | 54% | 40 of 72 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Miesha Tate | 0 | 28 of 62 | 45% | 37 of 72 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lauren Murphy | 102 of 184 | 55% | 77 of 154 | 24 of 29 | 1 of 1 | 68 of 142 | 31 of 39 | 3 of 3 |
| Miesha Tate | 85 of 164 | 51% | 61 of 122 | 18 of 34 | 6 of 8 | 67 of 138 | 18 of 26 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lauren Murphy | 26 of 48 | 54% | 17 of 37 | 9 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 33 | 11 of 15 | 0 of 0 |
| Miesha Tate | 25 of 47 | 53% | 12 of 26 | 10 of 18 | 3 of 3 | 16 of 34 | 9 of 13 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Lauren Murphy | 38 of 66 | 57% | 31 of 57 | 6 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 26 of 52 | 9 of 11 | 3 of 3 |
| Miesha Tate | 32 of 55 | 58% | 27 of 44 | 4 of 9 | 1 of 2 | 25 of 46 | 7 of 9 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Lauren Murphy | 38 of 70 | 54% | 29 of 60 | 9 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 27 of 57 | 11 of 13 | 0 of 0 |
| Miesha Tate | 28 of 62 | 45% | 22 of 52 | 4 of 7 | 2 of 3 | 26 of 58 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Miesha Tate but is hesitant due to her flyweight debut. He believes Tate's wrestling and grappling will be key, and that she can avoid being bullied by Murphy. He notes Murphy's losses came via grappling dominance, and assumes Tate will be strong at 125. He is unsure about betting.
Big Brady picks Miesha Tate to win by decision. He notes that Tate is the more skilled fighter overall and can get takedowns to control the fight on the mat. He is not impressed by Murphy's wins and thinks the striking will be competitive. He says he would not bet Tate at -220 odds but picks her to win.
Cody picks Tate, citing her wrestling advantage, strength, and experience. He notes that Tate has been preparing for this fight for a long time and has been in great shape. He believes Tate's clinch work and takedowns will be too much for Murphy, and that Murphy's only path is to bully Tate, which he doubts she can do.
Daniel Levi leans Miesha Tate but expresses disinterest in the fight. He notes Tate is past her prime and coming off a loss, while Murphy is coming off a title fight loss and has health issues. He considers it a dog-or-pass situation and won't lay the -220 price on Tate.
Paul leans towards Murphy as an underdog, citing the uncertainty of Tate's weight cut to 125 and the fact that Murphy is a natural 125er. He notes that Murphy has decent striking and could potentially outwork Tate. However, he admits he is not confident and will wait until weigh-ins before betting.
The MMA Guru picks Miesha Tate over Lauren Murphy, criticizing Murphy's lack of skill and Tate's experience. He believes Tate will win grappling exchanges and has slightly better striking. He predicts a unanimous decision win for Tate, with Tate winning the first two rounds clearly before slowing down due to weight cut.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ketlen Vieira | 0 | 113 of 263 | 42% | 156 of 313 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Miesha Tate | 0 | 122 of 276 | 44% | 145 of 302 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 2:52 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ketlen Vieira | 0 | 14 of 38 | 36% | 18 of 44 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Miesha Tate | 0 | 13 of 38 | 34% | 16 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:52 | |
| 2 | Ketlen Vieira | 0 | 29 of 54 | 53% | 29 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Miesha Tate | 0 | 21 of 54 | 38% | 21 of 54 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Ketlen Vieira | 0 | 20 of 55 | 36% | 28 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Miesha Tate | 0 | 24 of 57 | 42% | 26 of 59 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:26 | |
| 4 | Ketlen Vieira | 0 | 20 of 43 | 46% | 50 of 78 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Miesha Tate | 0 | 31 of 54 | 57% | 44 of 70 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:34 | |
| 5 | Ketlen Vieira | 0 | 30 of 73 | 41% | 31 of 74 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Miesha Tate | 0 | 33 of 73 | 45% | 38 of 78 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ketlen Vieira | 113 of 263 | 42% | 95 of 243 | 14 of 16 | 4 of 4 | 105 of 254 | 8 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| Miesha Tate | 122 of 276 | 44% | 52 of 175 | 60 of 88 | 10 of 13 | 110 of 260 | 12 of 16 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ketlen Vieira | 14 of 38 | 36% | 12 of 36 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 36 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Miesha Tate | 13 of 38 | 34% | 8 of 24 | 4 of 11 | 1 of 3 | 13 of 37 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Ketlen Vieira | 29 of 54 | 53% | 24 of 48 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 29 of 54 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Miesha Tate | 21 of 54 | 38% | 14 of 42 | 6 of 10 | 1 of 2 | 21 of 54 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Ketlen Vieira | 20 of 55 | 36% | 18 of 52 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 20 of 55 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Miesha Tate | 24 of 57 | 42% | 4 of 28 | 15 of 24 | 5 of 5 | 21 of 54 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Ketlen Vieira | 20 of 43 | 46% | 16 of 39 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 38 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Miesha Tate | 31 of 54 | 57% | 8 of 27 | 21 of 25 | 2 of 2 | 24 of 45 | 7 of 9 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Ketlen Vieira | 30 of 73 | 41% | 25 of 68 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 28 of 71 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Miesha Tate | 33 of 73 | 45% | 18 of 54 | 14 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 31 of 70 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
At long last, we have reached the main event. It’s been a journey tonight. Vieira (11-2, 5-2 UFC) will try to get back in the win column against former champ Tate (19-7, 6-4 UFC). The cage commander for this final fight of the night is referee Jason Herzog, and both with an eye on a crack at the bantamweight belt in the future touch hands to start things out. Vieira captures the center of the cage in the early going, but they keep a very safe range from the other to not land punches or kicks. They take turns following the other, until Vieira sits down with a right hand to smack Tate in the face. Tate tries to jab the body a few times, and Vieira is there to pop her with a left hand over the top. Tate swings, misses, and gets countered by the Brazilian. Vieira sticks out a crisp jab, and her range is giving Tate pause at how to get in on her. When Tate jumps forward into a one-two, Vieira swats it out of the way and dances back when Tate aims a kick at her leg. Tate appears jittery as she hops back and forth to try to get in on Vieira, throwing a single front kick to the body. Vieira tags Tate with a right hand when Tate closes in on her, and the former champ lands a pair of successful punches. Caught celebrating her work a little too long, Vieira counters her with heavier blows before Tate can escape. The distance between the two is vast, and Tate resorts to staggering and stutter-stepping her way in. Tate chases Vieira down and slugs her in the face with a combination, and when Vieira tries to answer her with strikes of her own, Tate ties her up and presses her into the wall. Although Vieira separates, Tate knees her once to the body. Tate ducks a punch combination to push Vieira back into the wire, and like before, Vieira is able to separate without issue. From a distance, Vieira shoots in for a takedown, and Tate is able to stop it from succeeding. They end the round in an awkward position with Tate’s hand on her foe’s backside.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Tate
Lev Pisarsky scores the round: 10-9 Tate
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Tate
Round 2
A tense exchange begins the second round, and Vieira lands cleanly on Tate’s left eye, forcing some reddening and immediate swelling. Tate pays it no mind as she kicks Vieira in the head, but it is only a glancing blow as the Brazilian rolls with it. Tate keeps reaching out to try to get in on her opponent, and she eats a Vieira punch so that she can score a solid right hand. The former champ plants the fall of her foot on Vieira’s torso, interrupting Vieira from landing a strike. Tate winds up with a stiff right hand, nailing Vieira and forcing her to reel. In response, Vieira scores a left hand down the pipe. Vieira chops at the leg, and they both start trading heavy leather in front of one another. Tate lands, and Vieira is stuck countering instead of leading the exchanges. This allows Tate to land on her first before replying. Tate connects with a big kick to Vieira’s face, and she sees that it has done some damage as she follows it with a chain of punches. Tate strings together a few one-twos, and Vieira shakes it off and lands her own thudding left hook on the side of Tate’s head. The woman formerly known as “Takedown” attempts one in the open cage, and Vieira stuffs it without issue. She tries again, and Vieira stops that one as well and separates. Tate walks Vieira down with kicks and punches, while not appearing too worried about the single counters that come back at her. Tate scores with a pair of clean right hands, and the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Tate
Lev Pisarsky scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Tate
Round 3
Tate comes out firing to start off the second round, surprising the Brazilian early with a short blitz of blows. Backing away before the counters follow suit, Tate changes things up with an inside leg kick and then one on the outside. Vieira leans into a left hand, and after a lull in the action, Tate reaches out with a left hand to stop a punch and she pokes Vieira square in the eyeball. Herzog acknowledges this and brings in the doctor, and after a minute to clear things out, Vieira is ready to go again. Tate wants to capitalize on this accident by chasing Vieira down with jabs and follow-up right hands. Tate keeps a low stance, and she punches the body while Vieira is sitting firmly on counters. Tate punches, slips the response and jabs out again. Tate gives chase, and a big right hand gets caught under Vieira’s armpit. Tate lands a right, tries to clinch up and eats a short right hand for her effort. Tate goes up high with a kick, and when it collides off of Vieira’s guard, Vieira aims a right hand down the middle. Tate advances, and Vieira swings a pair of looping hooks to keep Tate honest. The former champ lands a single strike, while Vieira’s prepared counter of an uppercut and a right hand knocks Tate back. The Brazilian lands cleanly in another exchange, forcing Tate to change levels and pursue a takedown. Vieira defends it well and separates without going down to her knees. When Vieira gets up, Tate meets her outstretched leg with a kick, and Vieira lances her with a right hand in a sharp retort. Tate rushes forward to clinch her up to end the round, and she holds on to the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Lev Pisarsky scores the round: 10-9 Tate
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Round 4
They meet and touch gloves in the center of the cage to initiate the championship rounds. Tate starts off aggressively, chasing her opponent down and landing punches. Tate clubs her opponent with a crisp right hand, and she escapes when Vieira sets up a counter. The Brazilian lands a few punches from a distance, and they trade heavily suddenly. Tate mixes things up with a takedown attempt, and she finally hits it and gets Vieira down. As “Fenomeno” stands up, Tate takes her back and looks to hit a mat return by tripping Vieira down. Clinched up, Tate gives up on the takedown entry so that she can land short strikes to the body and head. Staying tight keeps Tate away from eating any counters, and she presses her full body weight on her opponent that had never before fought beyond the third round. Vieira grits her teeth and pushes Tate away, and she starts lunging out with jabs. Tate marks her up with a big punch, and Vieira blasts her right back. Both women wear it well, and Tate kicks Vieira in the body from afar. Tate lands a few punches before coming in to clinch, and she knees Vieira in the body once. Vieira gives several punches back to the midsection, until Tate has had enough of that and pushes away. A Tate leg kick is met with a straight left hand, and Vieira catches Tate coming in with a string of punches. Vieira loads up on a right hand, and she elbows Tate when Tate tries to clinch. Vieira welcomes the clinch again in the open cage, as she repeatedly punches Tate in the side as she did before. Tate holds on tight with a clinch, and she releases a knee to the head. Another knee scores for the former champ, who ends the round in the Thai clinch.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Lev Pisarsky scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Tate
Round 5
The bantamweights touch hands and then come in to hug to commence the last round. Vieira lets her hands go when they start fighting, and she connects cleanly with power punches as Tate looks to be safe. They come together in a clinch, and Tate works the body before Vieira separates. Vieira tags her opponent with an uppercut and a left hand, and Tate is forced to back off and gather her thoughts. When she does, the ex-champ kicks the body and then tries to get a knee off to the chest. Tate kicks the body, but Vieira is there to bang with her as she starts throwing hard. As Tate backs off, Vieira leans on a long jab, and she busts Tate’s nose open with a powerful knee and a few punches up top. Tate misses on one-twos as Vieira appears to be the fresher, more composed woman right now. Tate springs back and forth, jabbing out but not throwing nearly as much as she did before the nose got cracked. Tate sneaks a right hand over the top, but Vieira throws three back at her that are much heavier. They trade single jabs, and Tate steps forward into a one-two that knocks Vieira back. Vieira returns fire with jabs that continue to pound into Tate’s bloodied nose, and the former champion’s face has transformed into a crimson mask. Hardly recognizable, Tate does not care, as she continues to swing punches while Vieira is tight and crisp with her boxing. The jabs have shut Tate’s left eye as well as making her nose bleed furiously, and Tate marches on and kicks her in the side. Tate continues to pour it on as Vieira stays on her bicycle, successfully scoring with laser-accurate strikes that barely register for Tate. The fight comes to an end after 25 minutes of action, and it could be anyone’s guess who wins this fight based on how close most of the rounds were. UFC Fight Night 198, and a consecutive weekend stretch of 10 UFC cards, comes to an end with an event that brought 10 decisions in 11 bouts. We all could use a week off, and we will have it. When the UFC returns in December, it will be on ESPN for U.S. audiences with a barnburner of a main event between Rob Font and Jose Aldo. We will be here for it, and we hope you are too.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vieira (48-47 Vieira)
Lev Pisarsky scores the round: 10-9 Vieira (48-47 Vieira)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Vieira (48-47 Tate)
The Official Result
Ketlen Vieira def. Miesha Tate via Unanimous Decision (48-47, 48-47, 49-46)
Angelo picks Ketlen Vieira, citing her power, size, and solid takedown defense (92%). He notes Miesha Tate's striking is poor and she relies on takedowns, but Vieira has stuffed takedowns from Olympic wrestler Sarah McMahon. He expects Vieira to win by decision or late stoppage, and placed a moneyline bet at even money (+100). He also mentions live betting opportunities.
Big Brady picks Miesha Tate to win by late finish (4th or 5th round). He notes that Ketlen Vieira has never fought five rounds and tends to slow down in the third round, as seen in fights against Eubanks and Kanutsukai. He believes Tate's improved striking and wrestling will allow her to survive early and take over as Vieira fades. He sees a late stoppage as very live.
Cody believes Miesha Tate is undervalued as a slight underdog. He points to Tate's championship pedigree, improved striking, and excellent conditioning for a five-round fight. He highlights Ketlen Vieira's history of gassing in the third round of her fights, including against Yana Kunitskaya where she was out-struck 44-7. Cody argues that Tate's wrestling is good enough to stuff takedowns and that if the fight stays standing, Tate has the advantage. He expects Tate to take over in rounds four and five as Vieira fades.
Daniel Levi picks Ketlen Vieira despite her history of mental lapses and cardio issues. He notes that Vieira has superior skills across the board, including judo and power, but worries about her hitting a wall in later rounds. He believes Miesha Tate is stiff and slow, and that Vieira has no pressure on her in this fight. However, he acknowledges Tate's toughness and comeback ability, making this a hesitant pick.
Lock sees this as a classic early Vera vs late Tate fight. He thinks Vera gasses badly after round two, and Tate will take over with takedowns and top control. He notes Tate is hunting a finish and might get it late. Lock likes the under 4.5 rounds at +140 and Tate inside the distance at +375. He also sprinkled Tate round 4 and round 5 props.
Paul agrees with Cody's assessment, noting that Vieira's gas tank is a major concern, especially in a five-round fight. He references the Yana Kunitskaya fight where Vieira missed weight and gassed hard at the end of round three. Paul believes that if Vieira cannot put Tate away early, Tate will take over late. He also mentions that this could be a good live bet opportunity if Vieira slows down in round three and Tate is still available at plus money.
The MMA Guru picks Miesha Tate over Ketlen Vieira. He notes that Vieira slows down in later rounds, as seen against Yana Kunitskaya and Sijara Eubanks. He highlights Tate's championship experience, composure, and conditioning. He expects a stalemate on the feet early, but Tate to win scrambles and land ground and pound in the later rounds, finishing with a fourth-round TKO.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miesha Tate | 0 | 25 of 64 | 39% | 48 of 88 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Marion Reneau | 0 | 65 of 120 | 54% | 110 of 183 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 5:52 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Miesha Tate | 0 | 15 of 37 | 40% | 30 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Marion Reneau | 0 | 25 of 43 | 58% | 34 of 52 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:36 | |
| 2 | Miesha Tate | 0 | 8 of 18 | 44% | 16 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Marion Reneau | 0 | 22 of 40 | 55% | 45 of 64 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:01 | |
| 3 | Miesha Tate | 0 | 2 of 9 | 22% | 2 of 9 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Marion Reneau | 0 | 18 of 37 | 48% | 31 of 67 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:15 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miesha Tate | 25 of 64 | 39% | 16 of 54 | 7 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 15 of 49 | 7 of 9 | 3 of 6 |
| Marion Reneau | 65 of 120 | 54% | 44 of 93 | 16 of 20 | 5 of 7 | 32 of 74 | 8 of 8 | 25 of 38 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Miesha Tate | 15 of 37 | 40% | 8 of 29 | 5 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 26 | 6 of 8 | 2 of 3 |
| Marion Reneau | 25 of 43 | 58% | 15 of 31 | 9 of 10 | 1 of 2 | 19 of 37 | 5 of 5 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Miesha Tate | 8 of 18 | 44% | 7 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 |
| Marion Reneau | 22 of 40 | 55% | 15 of 29 | 3 of 6 | 4 of 5 | 8 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 15 | |
| 3 | Miesha Tate | 2 of 9 | 22% | 1 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Marion Reneau | 18 of 37 | 48% | 14 of 33 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 12 | 3 of 3 | 10 of 22 |
Cody is confident in Miesha Tate despite the five-year layoff, citing her excellent physical shape and the fact that Marion Reneau is on a four-fight losing streak and has announced her retirement. He believes Tate's wrestling and grappling will be the difference, and he is surprised the odds are not wider. He acknowledges the red flags but thinks the matchup is favorable.
Paul expresses significant doubts about Miesha Tate's return, citing the five-year layoff, her split with longtime coach Brian Caraway, and her lackluster performances before retiring. He notes that Marion Reneau is durable and has experience, but ultimately he has no confidence in either fighter and passes on betting the fight. He does not make a clear pick.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raquel Pennington | 0 | 21 of 65 | 32% | 48 of 93 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 4:26 |
| Miesha Tate | 0 | 43 of 77 | 55% | 111 of 156 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 3 | 0 | 6:47 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raquel Pennington | 0 | 7 of 29 | 24% | 12 of 34 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:35 |
| Miesha Tate | 0 | 8 of 21 | 38% | 14 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 0 | 0:20 | |
| 2 | Raquel Pennington | 0 | 13 of 32 | 40% | 26 of 46 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:36 |
| Miesha Tate | 0 | 24 of 37 | 64% | 55 of 74 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:57 | |
| 3 | Raquel Pennington | 0 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 10 of 13 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Miesha Tate | 0 | 11 of 19 | 57% | 42 of 55 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 4:30 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raquel Pennington | 21 of 65 | 32% | 8 of 34 | 11 of 28 | 2 of 3 | 11 of 47 | 10 of 18 | 0 of 0 |
| Miesha Tate | 43 of 77 | 55% | 31 of 65 | 8 of 8 | 4 of 4 | 19 of 46 | 13 of 15 | 11 of 16 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raquel Pennington | 7 of 29 | 24% | 2 of 13 | 3 of 13 | 2 of 3 | 7 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Miesha Tate | 8 of 21 | 38% | 7 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Raquel Pennington | 13 of 32 | 40% | 5 of 17 | 8 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 14 | 10 of 18 | 0 of 0 |
| Miesha Tate | 24 of 37 | 64% | 16 of 29 | 8 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 22 | 13 of 15 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Raquel Pennington | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Miesha Tate | 11 of 19 | 57% | 8 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 16 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amanda Nunes | 0 | 3 of 15 | 20% | 3 of 15 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Miesha Tate | 0 | 40 of 63 | 63% | 40 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:27 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amanda Nunes | 0 | 3 of 15 | 20% | 3 of 15 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Miesha Tate | 0 | 40 of 63 | 63% | 40 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:27 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amanda Nunes | 3 of 15 | 20% | 2 of 12 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 14 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Miesha Tate | 40 of 63 | 63% | 35 of 54 | 3 of 5 | 2 of 4 | 30 of 50 | 3 of 5 | 7 of 8 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amanda Nunes | 3 of 15 | 20% | 2 of 12 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 14 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Miesha Tate | 40 of 63 | 63% | 35 of 54 | 3 of 5 | 2 of 4 | 30 of 50 | 3 of 5 | 7 of 8 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miesha Tate | 0 | 59 of 142 | 41% | 68 of 151 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:51 |
| Holly Holm | 0 | 40 of 104 | 38% | 65 of 132 | 2 of 9 | 22% | 2 | 0 | 5:06 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Miesha Tate | 0 | 14 of 28 | 50% | 14 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Holly Holm | 0 | 7 of 27 | 25% | 7 of 27 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Miesha Tate | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Holly Holm | 0 | 11 of 18 | 61% | 29 of 36 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 4:30 | |
| 3 | Miesha Tate | 0 | 13 of 41 | 31% | 13 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Holly Holm | 0 | 7 of 23 | 30% | 8 of 24 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Miesha Tate | 0 | 14 of 40 | 35% | 22 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:40 |
| Holly Holm | 0 | 7 of 22 | 31% | 12 of 29 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 | |
| 5 | Miesha Tate | 0 | 17 of 31 | 54% | 18 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
| Holly Holm | 0 | 8 of 14 | 57% | 9 of 16 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 | 0 | 0:35 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miesha Tate | 59 of 142 | 41% | 35 of 109 | 16 of 21 | 8 of 12 | 57 of 139 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Holly Holm | 40 of 104 | 38% | 29 of 83 | 7 of 12 | 4 of 9 | 26 of 88 | 4 of 4 | 10 of 12 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Miesha Tate | 14 of 28 | 50% | 8 of 19 | 5 of 5 | 1 of 4 | 14 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Holly Holm | 7 of 27 | 25% | 7 of 23 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 2 | 6 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Miesha Tate | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Holly Holm | 11 of 18 | 61% | 10 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 12 | |
| 3 | Miesha Tate | 13 of 41 | 31% | 9 of 35 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 13 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Holly Holm | 7 of 23 | 30% | 3 of 16 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 4 | 7 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Miesha Tate | 14 of 40 | 35% | 8 of 30 | 3 of 6 | 3 of 4 | 12 of 38 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Holly Holm | 7 of 22 | 31% | 6 of 20 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 20 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Miesha Tate | 17 of 31 | 54% | 10 of 24 | 5 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 17 of 30 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Holly Holm | 8 of 14 | 57% | 3 of 8 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Julia Avila - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julia Avila | 0 | 54 of 138 | 39% | 57 of 145 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:39 |
| Jacqueline Cavalcanti | 0 | 73 of 199 | 36% | 75 of 201 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Julia Avila | 0 | 24 of 49 | 48% | 24 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jacqueline Cavalcanti | 0 | 32 of 81 | 39% | 32 of 81 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Julia Avila | 0 | 12 of 35 | 34% | 15 of 40 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:23 |
| Jacqueline Cavalcanti | 0 | 17 of 54 | 31% | 17 of 54 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Julia Avila | 0 | 18 of 54 | 33% | 18 of 56 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:16 |
| Jacqueline Cavalcanti | 0 | 24 of 64 | 37% | 26 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julia Avila | 54 of 138 | 39% | 17 of 86 | 9 of 18 | 28 of 34 | 51 of 134 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Jacqueline Cavalcanti | 73 of 199 | 36% | 54 of 176 | 11 of 13 | 8 of 10 | 73 of 198 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Julia Avila | 24 of 49 | 48% | 5 of 28 | 3 of 4 | 16 of 17 | 24 of 49 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jacqueline Cavalcanti | 32 of 81 | 39% | 21 of 69 | 5 of 6 | 6 of 6 | 32 of 81 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Julia Avila | 12 of 35 | 34% | 4 of 20 | 2 of 6 | 6 of 9 | 12 of 34 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Jacqueline Cavalcanti | 17 of 54 | 31% | 12 of 48 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 17 of 53 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Julia Avila | 18 of 54 | 33% | 8 of 38 | 4 of 8 | 6 of 8 | 15 of 51 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Jacqueline Cavalcanti | 24 of 64 | 37% | 21 of 59 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 1 | 24 of 64 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Cavalcanti (-440), Avila (+340)
Round 1
There still ain’t no gettin’ offa’ this train we’re on until the middle of April, so strap in and enjoy the ride. We surge through February with a UFC Apex offering, the first of three in the next five weeks for better or worse. Suitably, the event only features a couple ranked competitors and a few names could be on the chopping block should they come up short. Potentially with her back against the wall is bantamweight Avila (9-3, 3-2 UFC), who took 2024 off instead of completely retiring, having lost two of her last three. The same cannot be said for Portugal’s Cavalcanti (8-1, 3-0 UFC) who will be nine years the younger. The ladies touch ‘em up over the oversight of referee Chris Tognoni, and the fights begin. As a note, the old gloves are officially in effect for every UFC card going forward. Cavalcanti in the center of the cage paws out with jabs that clatter off the guard, and Avila gives her back a surprisingly heavy leg kick to think about. Avila kicks on the other side of the leg, and she backs off as Cavalcanti swarms her. Avila circles away to check a kick and let one go, and the two try to find their range from distance. Both lunge with long strikes, and Avila mixes in low kicks. Avila parries a front kick and chews up the Portuguese woman’s front calf, making her shake it out. Cavalcanti jabs a foot to the belly and strings a few punches together, and this activates Avila into start trading. Cavalcanti reaches out with a long left hook to intercept Avila a few times, and she gets a body shot in to further frustrate the geologist. Avila checks a kick and loops a right hand over the top to keep Cavalcanti honest. The woman from Portugal strings together a one-two down the pipe, and she chains a few punches behind it but gets smacked with an overhand right. Cavalcanti leans back to dodge the worst of the swinging strike and connects on Avila, putting in body work to open up the head. Cavalcanti brushes a pair of hooks off the temple, and she wraps a kick around the side. Avila kicks her back at the end of the round.
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Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Cavalcanti
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Cavalcanti
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Cavalcanti
Round 2
Cavalcanti is the aggressor to start off the second round, having found her preferred range with jabs and kicks. Avila throws caution to the wind, absorbing a strike to get in, and she connects cleanly on her opponent. Cavalcanti shrugs it off to put a one-two on the chin and slide back from the anticipated looping counter. Avila is telegraphing her approach, giving Cavalcanti the right read to avoid the worst of the damage. Cavalcanti draws out a counter, prods out a pair of stabbing kicks to the midsection and catches a kick that flies back at her. Cavalcanti sets it down after landing once, and her one-two again is right on point. Cavalcanti snaps the head to the side with a right hand down Broadway, and Avila’s lunging blows are hitting air. Cavalcanti uses a perfect front kick to intercept the advancing Avila, stunning her and clipping her with a pair of fists. Cavalcanti wraps two punches around the guard and sneaks a kick up, with Avila practically standing straight in front of her foe taking shots. Avila sinks in on a hearty low kick, and she belts the belly with a resounding thud. As Cavalcanti turns away, Avila falls over and grabs Cavalcanti’s ankle. Cavalcanti tries to escape, but Avila torques her down to the mat and blood starts streaming down her face from a sharp right hand from the Portuguese woman. Cavalcanti controls the guard, tying Avila up from all but the least effective ground strikes, with Avila largely settling for bleeding on her foe. Avila wraps up a guillotine choke when Cavalcanti stands, but she is too slippery to get it so the round concludes.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Cavalcanti
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Cavalcanti
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Cavalcanti
Round 3
Blood flow on Avila’s cut is largely stemmed for now, but a few good strikes in the third round will undoubtedly open it up again. Avila keeps her guard up high while rattling off solid leg kicks, and she rushes forward and gets her leg caught. The pressure of Avila surprises her opponent, as she wings punches and forces awkward exchanges befitting of her “Raging Panda” nickname. Cavalcanti slows her foe down with jabs, busting Avila’s nose up and practically ignoring anything thrown at her. Avila slings for the bleachers, but Cavalcanti is the more accurate and active of the two. Avila hurls all power, and those strikes glide past her adversary. Cavalcanti lets Avila crowd her so she can pop her with short, effective punches, and picks her opportunities to get away safely in time. Cavalcanti connects with a one-two from afar, letting Avila flail back as Avila is still swinging hard but her accuracy is falling fast. Cavalcanti lets her overswing so she can ding here, staying calm under fire and further transforming Avila’s face into a crimson mask. The two crash together at the same time, and it is Cavalcanti who bounces forward first. Avila jabs and scores a right hand to tie the heavy favorite up and jam her to the wall, but this clinch exchange will not likely get her the edge she was seeking. With seconds to go, Avila lets go with everything she has, and the horn blares.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Cavalcanti (30-27 Cavalcanti)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Cavalcanti (30-27 Cavalcanti)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Cavalcanti (30-27 Cavalcanti)
The Official Result
Jacqueline Cavalcanti def. Julia Avila via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Angelo is confident in Jacqueline Cavalcanti, noting she is younger, stronger, and faster. He believes Julia Avila's best days are behind her and that toughness alone is not enough. He wishes Cavalcanti wrestled more to exploit Avila's defensive gaps, but still picks her confidently.
Big Brady picks Cavalcanti, noting that while she is overrated and has gone to split decisions, Avila has no path to victory. Avila cannot take Cavalcanti down (90% takedown defense) and is outmatched on the feet. He expects a unanimous decision win for Cavalcanti.
Cavalcanti is the better striker with technical advantages that will allow her to keep the fight standing and batter Avila from distance. However, the host notes that Cavalcanti is too big a favorite and wouldn't mind a small bet on Avila for the upset. Official pick is Cavalcanti by decision.
The MMA Guru picks Jacqueline Cavalcanti over Julia Avila, citing Avila's recent loss to Miesha Tate and her age (36). He notes Cavalcanti's wins over tough opponents like Josiane Nunes and Nora Cornolle, and sees her as younger, rangier, and with more room to improve.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miesha Tate | 0 | 32 of 37 | 86% | 127 of 152 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 1 | 0 | 10:55 |
| Julia Avila | 0 | 3 of 11 | 27% | 11 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Miesha Tate | 0 | 16 of 18 | 88% | 50 of 61 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:54 |
| Julia Avila | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Miesha Tate | 0 | 16 of 18 | 88% | 69 of 82 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 4:50 |
| Julia Avila | 0 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 10 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Miesha Tate | 0 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 8 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:11 |
| Julia Avila | 0 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miesha Tate | 32 of 37 | 86% | 31 of 35 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 27 of 29 |
| Julia Avila | 3 of 11 | 27% | 3 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Miesha Tate | 16 of 18 | 88% | 16 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 14 |
| Julia Avila | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Miesha Tate | 16 of 18 | 88% | 15 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 15 |
| Julia Avila | 2 of 7 | 28% | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Miesha Tate | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Julia Avila | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Cody takes Tate as an underdog. He argues that Tate has fought much higher competition and even in losses she's competitive. He notes Avila's wins are over low-level opponents and she has poor takedown defense. He thinks Tate's experience and wrestling will be the difference, and that Avila's layoff and knee injury are concerns. He believes Tate's back class carries her.
Lucrative James leans towards Miesha Tate, citing intangibles such as Julia Avila's layoff after having a baby (possibly via C-section) and her previous gym issues. He believes Tate's grappling can neutralize Avila's striking, and that Avila's path to victory is on the feet. He suggests attacking props like Tate by decision rather than the moneyline.
Tate is a former champion with a strong wrestling base, and she should be able to take Avila down and grind out a win. Avila is aggressive but lacks technical striking and has shown takedown defense issues. Both fighters are returning from long layoffs, but Tate's wrestling advantage and underdog odds make her a good value pick. The fight is expected to get easier for Tate in rounds two and three.
Paul sides with Avila, citing her strength and striking. He thinks Tate's motivation is questionable and that this could be a retirement fight. He notes Avila is the better striker and stronger, but acknowledges Tate's higher level of competition. He has a creeping suspicion that both fighters might retire after this.
The MMA Guru picks Miesha Tate as an underdog, noting her competitive fights against top competition like Ketlen Vieira and Lauren Murphy. He believes Julia Avila's inactivity and unimpressive last performance make Tate a live dog. He expects Tate to win by decision.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julia Avila | 0 | 48 of 91 | 52% | 107 of 163 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 | 2 | 3:31 |
| Julija Stoliarenko | 0 | 40 of 94 | 42% | 60 of 115 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 1 | 3:32 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Julia Avila | 0 | 29 of 58 | 50% | 29 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Julija Stoliarenko | 0 | 27 of 65 | 41% | 27 of 65 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Julia Avila | 0 | 17 of 30 | 56% | 42 of 59 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 0:28 |
| Julija Stoliarenko | 0 | 10 of 24 | 41% | 21 of 35 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:34 | |
| 3 | Julia Avila | 0 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 36 of 46 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 1 | 3:03 |
| Julija Stoliarenko | 0 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 12 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:58 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julia Avila | 48 of 91 | 52% | 31 of 72 | 11 of 13 | 6 of 6 | 42 of 84 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 4 |
| Julija Stoliarenko | 40 of 94 | 42% | 27 of 73 | 5 of 9 | 8 of 12 | 37 of 88 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Julia Avila | 29 of 58 | 50% | 21 of 49 | 7 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 28 of 56 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Julija Stoliarenko | 27 of 65 | 41% | 18 of 49 | 3 of 7 | 6 of 9 | 27 of 64 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Julia Avila | 17 of 30 | 56% | 8 of 20 | 4 of 5 | 5 of 5 | 12 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 4 |
| Julija Stoliarenko | 10 of 24 | 41% | 6 of 19 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 3 | 8 of 20 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 1 | |
| 3 | Julia Avila | 2 of 3 | 66% | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Julija Stoliarenko | 3 of 5 | 60% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Julia Avila, reasoning that Stoliarenko will accept being on her back, throw up submissions but not get any, and end up losing a decision. He notes Avila is a heavy-handed brawler who is aggressive on top. He advises staying away from Avila in betting due to high price but likes the over on strikes.
Big Brady picks Julia Avila to win by KO, citing her massive striking advantage and strength. He warns against going to the ground with Stoliarenko, who has eight armbar wins, but believes Avila can keep it standing and finish. He notes Stoliarenko's poor wrestling and that she has been finished by strikes in half her losses. He would not bet Avila at -400 but expects her to win.
Cody picks Avila, noting her athletic background and well-rounded skills. He criticizes Stoliarenko's level of competition and one-dimensional armbar game. He thinks Avila's striking and top game will be too much, and Stoliarenko's only path is pulling guard, which plays into Avila's strength. He is confident but acknowledges the price is high.
Jacob picks Julija Stoliarenko, citing her judo throw into armbar that she has done many times. He mentions that Joe Todora says Avila is his girl so he will stay away from her. Jacob is confident Stoliarenko finds a way to get the submission.
Avila should keep the fight on the feet and overpower Stoliarenko. Stoliarenko is dangerous off her back with armbars, so Avila must be careful. Avila will look for a knockout via ground and pound after dropping her. The under 2.5 rounds is intriguing as both are live for finishes. However, Avila at -345 is not a betting recommendation.
Paul picks Avila, noting Stoliarenko's poor UFC debut and limited skills. He thinks Avila's wrestling and striking are superior. He is not excited about the -360 price but sees Avila as a safe play. He mentions that Stoliarenko passed out on the scale in their previous booking, which is a red flag.
The MMA Guru picks Julia Avila, noting her better record, competition, and technique. He highlights her hands and combination punching, referencing her first-round finish of Gina Mazany. He also points out Stoliarenko's severe weight cut issues (fainting on the scales twice) as a major red flag, making Avila the safer bet.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sijara Eubanks | 0 | 34 of 87 | 39% | 66 of 128 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:54 |
| Julia Avila | 0 | 53 of 107 | 49% | 107 of 171 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 3 | 1 | 10:12 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sijara Eubanks | 0 | 13 of 29 | 44% | 19 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:54 |
| Julia Avila | 0 | 13 of 34 | 38% | 15 of 36 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 1 | 2:00 | |
| 2 | Sijara Eubanks | 0 | 13 of 33 | 39% | 31 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Julia Avila | 0 | 17 of 34 | 50% | 44 of 67 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 3 | 0 | 4:02 | |
| 3 | Sijara Eubanks | 0 | 8 of 25 | 32% | 16 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Julia Avila | 0 | 23 of 39 | 58% | 48 of 68 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 4:10 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sijara Eubanks | 34 of 87 | 39% | 26 of 76 | 4 of 7 | 4 of 4 | 32 of 83 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 |
| Julia Avila | 53 of 107 | 49% | 46 of 98 | 7 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 25 of 65 | 0 of 1 | 28 of 41 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sijara Eubanks | 13 of 29 | 44% | 10 of 24 | 1 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 11 of 26 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
| Julia Avila | 13 of 34 | 38% | 11 of 30 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 11 | |
| 2 | Sijara Eubanks | 13 of 33 | 39% | 10 of 30 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Julia Avila | 17 of 34 | 50% | 15 of 32 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 14 | |
| 3 | Sijara Eubanks | 8 of 25 | 32% | 6 of 22 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 24 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Julia Avila | 23 of 39 | 58% | 20 of 36 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 22 | 0 of 1 | 14 of 16 |
Big Brady picks Julia Avila, but expects the fight to be closer than the odds suggest. He notes Eubanks has crisp boxing and hits hard, but her cardio is a concern. Avila has decent upside and ground game, but he is worried about Eubanks' takedowns. He predicts Avila by decision, but cannot bet it himself.
The host expects Avila's pressure and 'raging panda' style to overwhelm Eubanks, who tends to fade later in fights. He notes Avila has good cardio, striking, and grappling, and predicts a second-round TKO. He also mentions the 'fight doesn't go to decision' prop at +130 as a potential play.
The MMA Guru picks Julia Avila based on her convincing win over Gina Mazany and her victory over Pannie Kianzad, who beat Bethe Correia, who in turn beat Sijara Eubanks. He notes that Eubanks had a close decision with Aspen Ladd but believes Avila will out-strike her for three rounds and keep the fight standing, winning by unanimous decision.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julia Avila | 0 | 11 of 20 | 55% | 11 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Gina Mazany | 0 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Julia Avila | 0 | 11 of 20 | 55% | 11 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Gina Mazany | 0 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julia Avila | 11 of 20 | 55% | 10 of 19 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 6 | 10 of 14 | 0 of 0 |
| Gina Mazany | 2 of 4 | 50% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Julia Avila | 11 of 20 | 55% | 10 of 19 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 6 | 10 of 14 | 0 of 0 |
| Gina Mazany | 2 of 4 | 50% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
The MMA Guru picks Julia Avila, stating that Gina Mazany is not very good at fighting and is taking the fight on short notice. He notes that Avila is the bigger girl at the weight class. He confidently predicts Avila will get the job done.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julia Avila | 1 | 49 of 122 | 40% | 66 of 142 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 5:46 |
| Pannie Kianzad | 0 | 33 of 83 | 39% | 39 of 95 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:43 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Julia Avila | 0 | 20 of 38 | 52% | 32 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:22 |
| Pannie Kianzad | 0 | 17 of 33 | 51% | 18 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:47 | |
| 2 | Julia Avila | 0 | 18 of 51 | 35% | 19 of 52 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:40 |
| Pannie Kianzad | 0 | 14 of 38 | 36% | 17 of 44 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:49 | |
| 3 | Julia Avila | 1 | 11 of 33 | 33% | 15 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 3:44 |
| Pannie Kianzad | 0 | 2 of 12 | 16% | 4 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julia Avila | 49 of 122 | 40% | 30 of 96 | 11 of 16 | 8 of 10 | 28 of 93 | 17 of 23 | 4 of 6 |
| Pannie Kianzad | 33 of 83 | 39% | 26 of 73 | 3 of 6 | 4 of 4 | 25 of 69 | 7 of 13 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Julia Avila | 20 of 38 | 52% | 12 of 29 | 6 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 25 | 12 of 13 | 0 of 0 |
| Pannie Kianzad | 17 of 33 | 51% | 15 of 29 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 22 | 6 of 11 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Julia Avila | 18 of 51 | 35% | 11 of 39 | 4 of 8 | 3 of 4 | 14 of 43 | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Pannie Kianzad | 14 of 38 | 36% | 10 of 33 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 12 of 35 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Julia Avila | 11 of 33 | 33% | 7 of 28 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 4 | 6 of 25 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 6 |
| Pannie Kianzad | 2 of 12 | 16% | 1 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Expert Picks (5)
Cody takes Tate as an underdog. He argues that Tate has fought much higher competition and even in losses she's competitive. He notes Avila's wins are over low-level opponents and she has poor takedown defense. He thinks Tate's experience and wrestling will be the difference, and that Avila's layoff and knee injury are concerns. He believes Tate's back class carries her.
Lucrative James leans towards Miesha Tate, citing intangibles such as Julia Avila's layoff after having a baby (possibly via C-section) and her previous gym issues. He believes Tate's grappling can neutralize Avila's striking, and that Avila's path to victory is on the feet. He suggests attacking props like Tate by decision rather than the moneyline.
Tate is a former champion with a strong wrestling base, and she should be able to take Avila down and grind out a win. Avila is aggressive but lacks technical striking and has shown takedown defense issues. Both fighters are returning from long layoffs, but Tate's wrestling advantage and underdog odds make her a good value pick. The fight is expected to get easier for Tate in rounds two and three.
Paul sides with Avila, citing her strength and striking. He thinks Tate's motivation is questionable and that this could be a retirement fight. He notes Avila is the better striker and stronger, but acknowledges Tate's higher level of competition. He has a creeping suspicion that both fighters might retire after this.
The MMA Guru picks Miesha Tate as an underdog, noting her competitive fights against top competition like Ketlen Vieira and Lauren Murphy. He believes Julia Avila's inactivity and unimpressive last performance make Tate a live dog. He expects Tate to win by decision.
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