Career Averages - Jared Gooden
Career Averages - Wellington Turman
Jared Gooden
Wellington Turman
Jared Gooden - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chidi Njokuani | 0 | 105 of 148 | 70% | 162 of 207 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 9:16 |
| Jared Gooden | 0 | 20 of 50 | 40% | 81 of 121 | 2 of 8 | 25% | 1 | 0 | 2:29 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chidi Njokuani | 0 | 21 of 28 | 75% | 46 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 3:38 |
| Jared Gooden | 0 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 23 of 28 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 1:06 | |
| 2 | Chidi Njokuani | 0 | 52 of 65 | 80% | 67 of 80 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 3:15 |
| Jared Gooden | 0 | 11 of 27 | 40% | 38 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:14 | |
| 3 | Chidi Njokuani | 0 | 32 of 55 | 58% | 49 of 74 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:23 |
| Jared Gooden | 0 | 6 of 18 | 33% | 20 of 36 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 | 0 | 1:09 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chidi Njokuani | 105 of 148 | 70% | 49 of 81 | 47 of 57 | 9 of 10 | 28 of 48 | 56 of 65 | 21 of 35 |
| Jared Gooden | 20 of 50 | 40% | 13 of 37 | 5 of 10 | 2 of 3 | 14 of 42 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chidi Njokuani | 21 of 28 | 75% | 5 of 7 | 16 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 6 | 18 of 22 | 0 of 0 |
| Jared Gooden | 3 of 5 | 60% | 1 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Chidi Njokuani | 52 of 65 | 80% | 20 of 29 | 24 of 27 | 8 of 9 | 16 of 25 | 36 of 40 | 0 of 0 |
| Jared Gooden | 11 of 27 | 40% | 7 of 20 | 2 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 25 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Chidi Njokuani | 32 of 55 | 58% | 24 of 45 | 7 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 17 | 2 of 3 | 21 of 35 |
| Jared Gooden | 6 of 18 | 33% | 5 of 14 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 4 of 14 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 2 |
Angelo picks Chidi Njokuani, but with hesitation due to Njokuani's slow starts. He notes that Njokuani should dominate if he throws with more volume, but a slow start could be dangerous against Jared Gooden's early power. Angelo expects to be biting his nails in the first round but ultimately believes Njokuani is safe.
Big Brady picks Jared Gooden to win by second-round knockout. He criticizes Chidi Njokuani's brutal weight cut to welterweight, his poor performance against Rhys McKee, and his history of quitting when hurt. He notes Gooden is more durable and has more heart. Although Njokuani is the better striker with more power, Brady expects Gooden to weather the early storm and finish him in the second round. He thinks Njokuani's weight cut and tendency to look for a way out will be his downfall.
Connor also picks Njokuani but is hesitant, noting that Gooden is tough and has a good chin, but his defensive flaws make him vulnerable. He compares the matchup to Njokuani's fight with Dusko Todorovic, where Njokuani landed a fight-ending elbow. Connor thinks Njokuani's opportunistic striking will find the mark, but he's not fully confident due to Njokuani's inconsistency.
Njokuani is slicker and has a height and reach advantage. At welterweight, this is a great spot for him as long as the weight cut doesn't drain his durability. He should keep Gooden's power punching at bay with kicks up the middle and straight shots, picking him apart and winning on the scorecards.
The MMA Guru picks Chidi Njokuani, citing his size, range, and athleticism. He notes that Njokuani has a better chance of a sudden finish than Jared Gooden, who he questions why is still in the UFC. He acknowledges Njokuani's inconsistent record but favors his ability to land a knockout out of nowhere.
Zane picks Njokuani but is hesitant because Njokuani is inconsistent and a pure opportunist. He notes that Gooden is hittable and aggressive, which should provide opportunities for Njokuani to land a knockout. However, Zane acknowledges that Njokuani can lose if he doesn't seize the moment or if Gooden's toughness carries him.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Gooden | 0 | 37 of 57 | 64% | 46 of 73 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:40 |
| Wellington Turman | 0 | 53 of 83 | 63% | 62 of 95 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:31 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jared Gooden | 0 | 27 of 44 | 61% | 36 of 60 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:40 |
| Wellington Turman | 0 | 28 of 52 | 53% | 33 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jared Gooden | 0 | 10 of 13 | 76% | 10 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Wellington Turman | 0 | 25 of 31 | 80% | 29 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:31 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Gooden | 37 of 57 | 64% | 27 of 47 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 8 | 32 of 49 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 6 |
| Wellington Turman | 53 of 83 | 63% | 33 of 59 | 14 of 18 | 6 of 6 | 43 of 72 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 10 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jared Gooden | 27 of 44 | 61% | 18 of 35 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 7 | 23 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 6 |
| Wellington Turman | 28 of 52 | 53% | 9 of 30 | 13 of 16 | 6 of 6 | 28 of 52 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jared Gooden | 10 of 13 | 76% | 9 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Wellington Turman | 25 of 31 | 80% | 24 of 29 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 10 |
Big Brady leans toward Jared Gooden as a dog, noting he doesn't think Wellington Turman should be such a big favorite. He favors Gooden's striking and power, and thinks Gooden's takedown defense is solid enough to stuff Turman's wrestling. He expects a close fight but picks Gooden by decision, though he's not confident enough to bet on it.
Cody picks Turman, agreeing that he mixes in takedowns and makes it ugly. He thinks Turman's size at welterweight helps his grappling. He notes Turman trains with top guys and this is a good matchup. He doesn't love the price but picks him.
Lucrative James picks Wellington Turman, stating that despite Turman's inconsistent fight IQ and chin issues, he has too many advantages to lose. He notes Turman's decent striking and grappling skills, and believes he can win by decision or submission. He acknowledges Jared Gooden's power but thinks Turman's overall game will prevail.
Turman is a BJJ black belt with improving striking, and he should be able to take Gooden down and dominate on the ground. Gooden is a power striker with a developing ground game, but he has shown weakness when taken down and has weight-cutting issues. Turman is expected to be competitive on the feet before changing levels and securing a submission victory.
Paul picks Turman, citing his youth, move to welterweight, and training with Glover Teixeira. He thinks Turman's grappling and takedowns will be the difference. He notes Gooden's takedown defense is poor and Turman can mix in wrestling. He doesn't love the price but thinks Turman wins more often than not.
The MMA Guru picks Wellington Turman, impressed by his striking improvements under Alex Pereira's tutelage. He notes Turman arguably beat Randy Brown in his last fight and believes he can replicate that performance against Jared Gooden. He sees Turman as the more improving fighter at 27 years old and expects him to win.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlston Harris | 0 | 63 of 110 | 57% | 140 of 194 | 5 of 12 | 41% | 0 | 0 | 9:38 |
| Jared Gooden | 0 | 51 of 84 | 60% | 93 of 126 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlston Harris | 0 | 43 of 84 | 51% | 44 of 85 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
| Jared Gooden | 0 | 44 of 71 | 61% | 53 of 80 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 | |
| 2 | Carlston Harris | 0 | 7 of 10 | 70% | 47 of 54 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 4:44 |
| Jared Gooden | 0 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 28 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Carlston Harris | 0 | 13 of 16 | 81% | 49 of 55 | 4 of 8 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 4:41 |
| Jared Gooden | 0 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 12 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlston Harris | 63 of 110 | 57% | 52 of 99 | 10 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 35 of 74 | 11 of 15 | 17 of 21 |
| Jared Gooden | 51 of 84 | 60% | 22 of 49 | 21 of 27 | 8 of 8 | 41 of 74 | 10 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlston Harris | 43 of 84 | 51% | 34 of 75 | 8 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 33 of 70 | 10 of 14 | 0 of 0 |
| Jared Gooden | 44 of 71 | 61% | 20 of 42 | 17 of 22 | 7 of 7 | 39 of 66 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Carlston Harris | 7 of 10 | 70% | 5 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 9 |
| Jared Gooden | 4 of 6 | 66% | 0 of 1 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Carlston Harris | 13 of 16 | 81% | 13 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 12 |
| Jared Gooden | 3 of 7 | 42% | 2 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Harris (-300), Gooden (+250)
Round 1
The UFC is holed up in Las Vegas this weekend for another Fight Night card, but not where you’d expect. Instead of the Apex or the T-Mobile Arena, the promotion will make its debut inside of the Theater at Virgin Hotels, which seats over 4,000 – some may remember it as called “The Joint” in years past. Fans will be cheering throughout this 13-fight event, and it begins with an unplanned catchweight contest now set at 177 pounds. Harris (17-5, 2-1 UFC) expected to face a member of the Nurmagomedov clan, but on short notice, he now welcomes Gooden (22-8, 1-3 UFC) back to the promotion. The latter was unable to make the 171-pound limit, and even though he checked in a whopping six pounds heavy, the fight is still on. Referee Keith Peterson will boot out nonsense from this new venue in the first fight of the night, and there is no touch of gloves to get things started from the fighters. The two test one another’s range early with long, lunging single strikes. Gooden sits down on a hard leg kick, and Harris catches his foe with his hands low with a two-hook combo. Harris swings so hard he almost hits the deck, and Gooden does not take advantage of this and lets him clinch up instead. They separate, and Harris lets fly a head kick that careens off the shoulder. “Mocambique” dings his opponent with a few sharp strikes, as Gooden’s hands are by his waist, but Gooden seems no worse for wear and steps in with a left hand. Harris pushes out a jab and a follow-up leg kick, and Gooden replies with a heavier low kick. They jab at the same time, and Harris follows one with a left hand that backs Gooden off. Harris wings a right hand that cracks “Nite Train” behind the ear, and Gooden wobbles but does not pick his guard up. Harris’ right hook collides with a few more oddly arcing overhand rights, and Gooden walks through them and tries to counter with a huge left hook. Harris nails Gooden with a few punches, and Gooden takes them on the chin and side of the dome without budging. Harris shoots in for a takedown in the center of the cage, and when that is stuffed, he blasts Gooden in the nose with a knee. Harris stands in the pocket and unloads with a haymaker of a right, and Gooden blinks it out but does not seem overly concerned. Harris swings for the bleachers with most of his blows, and they are already beginning to slow with a minute remaining in the opening frame. Harris sticks a jab, and Gooden answers him with two back. Gooden comes over the top with a right, and it has a near tomahawk motion than a typical right hook angle. Harris nails Gooden with a standing elbow, and he unloads with a combination of heavy blows to the head that rock Gooden and drive him back to the wall. The horn sounds as the two are clinched.
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Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Harris
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Harris
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Harris
Round 2
The second round opens up with a low kick from Gooden, and Harris shoots in for a double-leg takedown. “Nite Train” stands him up although he gets pushed back to the wall, and Harris tries for trips on the inside as Gooden talks to him. Harris redoubles his effort, and he manages to scoop Gooden’s legs out and dump him on the mat. Harris moves to half guard as soon as he hits the ground, and he actively works with ground-and-pound from on top. The punches and elbows are not individually damaging, but they stay busy and stave off the watchful Peterson from a possible standup. Harris lays down flat on top of his man, and he softens up the ribs with a series of unanswered, thudding right hands. Gooden prevents any guard passing even when absorbing elbows on the face, and he start throwing punches off his back. Gooden sits up, and Harris welcomes this and snatches up a guillotine choke in a hurry. Gooden moves to his knees while in submission danger, doing enough to fight the hands and preventing the choke from cinching up. As Harris holds on, he pushes Gooden down to his back again, and he squeezes his forearm on the throat and elbows Gooden until the bell rings.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Harris
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Harris
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Harris
Round 3
The final round kicks off with an aggressive Gooden, who marches out of his corner and swings heavily. Harris takes a few punches before jumping on a leaning Gooden to push him down to the ground on his face. Gooden looks to defend himself from a potential choke setup, but in the process, Harris circles around to take his back and drag him to the canvas. Harris jumps over to the mount position in pursuit of an arm-triangle choke, only for a Gooden buck to break up the choke. Harris postures up while still mounting his man, and he rains down punches and elbows that bounce Gooden’s head off the mat. Gooden scoots his way to the wall, and Harris lets him off the hook and tries to take his back on the way up. Gooden shucks him off, but Harris turns around to drop down for a single-leg takedown. Gooden stands him up and knees him in the upper chest, and Harris powerfully replies by wrenching Gooden’s feet off the floor and chucking him to the mat. Gooden lands on his backside with a disappointed look on his face, but he still powers his way back up to his feet before Harris can drill him with any strikes. Gooden breaks free from a tie-up, and he throws hands recklessly in hopes of catching Harris on the way in. Harris rings his bell with a fierce jab and shoots for a double, and he succeeds in grounding “Nite Train.” Gooden looks to keep his back against the cage to possibly wall-walk, and Harris slides around the side and back to try to take it. Gooden explodes out of the inopportune position, and Harris doggedly pursues doubles or any kind of takedown he can find. On his second try, while Gooden is halfway to escaping, Harris trips his legs up and throws him to the canvas. Harris climbs into half guard and lets loose with a stream of elbows, and he lumps Gooden’s head up with strikes right to the final horn.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Harris (30-27 Harris)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Harris (30-27 Harris)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Harris (30-27 Harris)
The Official Result
Carlston Harris def. Jared Gooden via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Angelo picks Abubakar Nurmagomedov (Jared Gooden) as the aggressive wrestler who will lay on top of the older, slower Carlston Harris. He expects a boring but effective performance, with Nurmagomedov controlling the fight with takedowns and top pressure. He is surprised Nurmagomedov is the underdog and considers a moneyline bet at plus money.
Big Brady picks Ricardo Ramos (note: transcript says Ramos vs Lingo, but fight_id 1327 is Harris vs Gooden; however the transcript discusses Ramos vs Lingo, which is not on the card. This appears to be a mismatch. Based on the transcript, the fight discussed is Ramos vs Lingo, but that fight is not in the fight list. I will skip this as it doesn't match any fight_id. Actually, the transcript mentions 'Ricardo Ramos going against Austin lingo' but that fight is not in the provided card. So I will not include it.)
Connor picks Harris confidently, noting that Gooden is a stiff, upright striker who gets hurt early in fights and has poor head movement. Harris is a powerful, dynamic wrestler-striker who will pressure Gooden and take him down. He expects Harris to overwhelm Gooden with pace and power, likely leading to a finish.
I think Gooden's discipline and jab from distance, combined with timely takedowns, will allow him to grind out a decision. Harris is dangerous early with submissions and power, but if Gooden can survive the initial onslaught and avoid the front choke, he should take over. Gooden's performance against Harris showed he can implement a smart game plan. I expect a decision win for Gooden.
The MMA Guru picks Carlston Harris, citing his finishing ability as a key advantage. He notes that Harris has a massive finishing edge over Abubakar Nurmagomedov, who tends to win by decision. Harris has shown KO and submission finishes, while Nurmagomedov lacks finishing ability and has been submitted before. The Guru trusts Harris to get the job done, likely by finish.
Zane picks Harris, agreeing that Gooden's stiff striking and tendency to get hit will be exploited by Harris's power and wrestling. He notes that Harris is an awkward but powerful fighter who can maintain a high pace, and Gooden has historically struggled against aggressive opponents. He expects Harris to win by decision or late TKO.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randy Brown | 0 | 115 of 235 | 48% | 117 of 237 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Jared Gooden | 0 | 81 of 156 | 51% | 87 of 162 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:44 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Randy Brown | 0 | 28 of 60 | 46% | 28 of 60 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Jared Gooden | 0 | 25 of 51 | 49% | 26 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:18 | |
| 2 | Randy Brown | 0 | 37 of 88 | 42% | 37 of 88 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jared Gooden | 0 | 30 of 47 | 63% | 30 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Randy Brown | 0 | 50 of 87 | 57% | 52 of 89 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Jared Gooden | 0 | 26 of 58 | 44% | 31 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:26 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randy Brown | 115 of 235 | 48% | 81 of 196 | 25 of 29 | 9 of 10 | 109 of 227 | 5 of 7 | 1 of 1 |
| Jared Gooden | 81 of 156 | 51% | 19 of 76 | 27 of 36 | 35 of 44 | 78 of 151 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Randy Brown | 28 of 60 | 46% | 17 of 47 | 6 of 7 | 5 of 6 | 27 of 58 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Jared Gooden | 25 of 51 | 49% | 4 of 20 | 7 of 12 | 14 of 19 | 25 of 51 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Randy Brown | 37 of 88 | 42% | 25 of 73 | 9 of 12 | 3 of 3 | 37 of 87 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Jared Gooden | 30 of 47 | 63% | 7 of 21 | 9 of 11 | 14 of 15 | 30 of 47 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Randy Brown | 50 of 87 | 57% | 39 of 76 | 10 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 45 of 82 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 |
| Jared Gooden | 26 of 58 | 44% | 8 of 35 | 11 of 13 | 7 of 10 | 23 of 53 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 2 |
Angelo picks Randy Brown, citing his superior skill set in all MMA aspects. He notes Brown's range, long jabs, and kicks, and his ability to avoid Gooden's power. He expects Brown to control distance and pick up the pace after a cautious first round. He has no bet on this fight.
Cody picks Randy Brown based on volume and technical striking. He highlights Brown's improvements, his jab, reach, and ability to stay on the outside. He notes Gooden doesn't pull the trigger enough and Brown's experience against tougher competition gives him the edge. He expects Brown to use his range and eventually overwhelm Gooden with volume.
Daniel Levi is openly biased because Jared Gooden is a close friend. He acknowledges Randy Brown's length and skills but believes Gooden has a path to victory by attacking Brown's legs early, as shown by Vicente Luque and Belal Muhammad. He notes Gooden's improved boxing and discipline, and his experience against taller opponents. Levi admits the pick is biased but still sees a realistic path for Gooden to win.
Jacob picks Randy Brown but is heavily rooting for Jared Gooden because he accidentally placed a 4-unit bet on Gooden instead of Jared Gordon last week. He thinks Brown is the more diverse fighter and should win, but he needs Gooden to win for his bet. He has a personal stake in Gooden winning.
The host picks Jared Gooden as an underdog, believing the line is too wide. He highlights Gooden's leg kicks as a key weapon against Randy Brown, who has historically struggled with leg kicks (e.g., against Vicente Luque and Alex Oliveira). He notes Gooden's heavy-handed style and ability to find a knockout, predicting a first-round KO. He also suggests live betting Brown if one prefers him.
Paul agrees with Cody, citing Brown's technical striking and reach advantage. He mentions Brown's submission skills and experience against top names. He notes the price is steep but believes Brown's game plan and experience in the co-main event spot make him the clear pick.
The MMA Guru picks Randy Brown to win by unanimous decision (29-28). He believes Brown is taller, rangier, and better than Gooden, who he criticizes for losing to part-time fighters. He notes Brown's submission win over Wale Alves and decision over Brian Barbarena as evidence.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Gooden | 0 | 7 of 13 | 53% | 7 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Niklas Stolze | 1 | 14 of 23 | 60% | 14 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:21 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jared Gooden | 0 | 7 of 13 | 53% | 7 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Niklas Stolze | 1 | 14 of 23 | 60% | 14 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:21 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Gooden | 7 of 13 | 53% | 4 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Niklas Stolze | 14 of 23 | 60% | 11 of 17 | 0 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 13 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jared Gooden | 7 of 13 | 53% | 4 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Niklas Stolze | 14 of 23 | 60% | 11 of 17 | 0 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 13 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
Big Brady picks Jared Gooden, despite being burned by him before. He thinks Gooden is the better striker with higher volume and can mix in takedowns. He notes Stolze has poor takedown defense but is dangerous off his back. Brady predicts a decision win for Gooden, but is not confident.
Cody leans towards Niklas Stolze, citing his durability (never finished) and likely better cardio since he had a full camp. He notes that Gooden is on short notice and has a history of missing weight and gassing. Cody expects Stolze to out-grapple Gooden and win a close decision, but he does not like the -200 price and thinks the fight likely goes the distance. He mentions the over on fight goes to decision as a potential play.
Levi is biased as Gooden is a friend, but he provides reasoning. He praises Gooden's lifestyle change and ability to make weight on short notice. He believes this is a stand-up fight where Gooden can succeed, unlike his previous fight against Nurmagomedov. Levi disagrees with the line (Stolze -200), thinking the fight is closer to even with a slight lean to Gooden. He expects Gooden to go for the knockout and get his first UFC win.
Stolze is the better all-around fighter with superior grappling and striking. Gooden has power but comes in on short notice and has cardio issues. Stolze had a full camp and should take over as the fight goes on. The line at -195 offers little value, but Stolze by decision is likely. Gooden's only path is an early KO.
Paul considers Jared Gooden as a live underdog, noting his power and durability. He points out that Gooden has heart and has gone the distance before, but his cardio is a major concern, especially on short notice. Paul is not confident enough to bet Gooden but acknowledges he could spring the upset if he lands a big shot. He calls it a 'dog or pass' spot.
The MMA Guru initially picks Niklas Stolze but then switches to Jared Gooden, expressing hesitation. He notes that Gooden's win over Abdurazak Hassan is his only good win, and that Stolze has been more tested. However, he ultimately goes with Gooden, citing a striking advantage and that Stolze's recent opponents were on losing streaks. He is tainted by Gooden's loss to Wale Alves via body kicks.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abubakar Nurmagomedov | 0 | 43 of 136 | 31% | 111 of 207 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jared Gooden | 0 | 60 of 120 | 50% | 100 of 164 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 4:18 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Abubakar Nurmagomedov | 0 | 14 of 49 | 28% | 14 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jared Gooden | 0 | 23 of 42 | 54% | 23 of 42 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:07 | |
| 2 | Abubakar Nurmagomedov | 0 | 17 of 62 | 27% | 17 of 62 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jared Gooden | 0 | 30 of 63 | 47% | 30 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 | |
| 3 | Abubakar Nurmagomedov | 0 | 12 of 25 | 48% | 80 of 96 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jared Gooden | 0 | 7 of 15 | 46% | 47 of 59 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 4:07 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abubakar Nurmagomedov | 43 of 136 | 31% | 30 of 110 | 12 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 35 of 127 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 6 |
| Jared Gooden | 60 of 120 | 50% | 45 of 105 | 9 of 9 | 6 of 6 | 56 of 115 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Abubakar Nurmagomedov | 14 of 49 | 28% | 12 of 42 | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 48 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Jared Gooden | 23 of 42 | 54% | 12 of 31 | 7 of 7 | 4 of 4 | 22 of 40 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Abubakar Nurmagomedov | 17 of 62 | 27% | 9 of 47 | 7 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 17 of 62 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jared Gooden | 30 of 63 | 47% | 28 of 61 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 27 of 60 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Abubakar Nurmagomedov | 12 of 25 | 48% | 9 of 21 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 17 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 6 |
| Jared Gooden | 7 of 15 | 46% | 5 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Abubakar Nurmagomedov to win by dominant decision (30-27). He believes Nurmagomedov's wrestling will be the key, as Gooden can be taken down and controlled easily. He notes that Gooden has submissions on his record but thinks Nurmagomedov will avoid playing on the feet. However, he says he probably wouldn't bet the -235 line due to Nurmagomedov's mistakes in his last fight.
Cody leans towards Gooden as a live underdog, noting that Abubakar's price is inflated by his last name. He thinks Gooden has better striking and a reach advantage, and that Abubakar's chin is questionable. He is considering a play on Gooden but wants to see weigh-ins first.
Daniel Levi picks Jared Gooden to get his first UFC win. He acknowledges Gooden's struggles with wrestlers but believes he has worked tirelessly to patch that hole in his game at ATT. Levi criticizes Abubakar as a lesser version of the Dagestani style with no stand-up and a questionable chin. He thinks Gooden will get back to his feet and knock Abubakar out.
The host hesitantly picks Abubakar Nurmagomedov to win by decision. He notes that Abubakar has a 'Nurmagomedov tax' on his line and is not impressed with his grappling or cardio. He thinks Abubakar will struggle to get Gooden down and keep him there, but Gooden's cardio and durability are also question marks. He mentions Gooden's KO power at +650 as a potential sprinkle, but ultimately expects Abubakar to grind out a decision if he can get takedowns.
Paul leans towards Abubakar but thinks the price is way off. He notes that Abubakar has good wrestling and cardio, and that Gooden is hittable. However, he is not confident because Abubakar's chin is suspect and he has been knocked out before. He calls it a dogger pass situation.
The Guru picks Abubakar Nurmagomedov by unanimous decision, citing his takedown advantage and better competition. He criticizes Jared Gooden's takedown defense and lack of impressive wins. He expects a sloppy fight with Nurmagomedov dictating the pace with wrestling, taking Gooden down whenever it gets risky on the feet. He notes Nurmagomedov is the worst of the Nurmagomedovs but still good enough to win.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Jouban | 0 | 168 of 331 | 50% | 169 of 332 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0:10 |
| Jared Gooden | 0 | 100 of 210 | 47% | 101 of 211 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:06 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alan Jouban | 0 | 41 of 96 | 42% | 41 of 96 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Jared Gooden | 0 | 33 of 71 | 46% | 33 of 71 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Alan Jouban | 0 | 71 of 126 | 56% | 72 of 127 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Jared Gooden | 0 | 35 of 72 | 48% | 35 of 72 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:14 | |
| 3 | Alan Jouban | 0 | 56 of 109 | 51% | 56 of 109 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0:04 |
| Jared Gooden | 0 | 32 of 67 | 47% | 33 of 68 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:52 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Jouban | 168 of 331 | 50% | 116 of 262 | 39 of 55 | 13 of 14 | 150 of 305 | 18 of 26 | 0 of 0 |
| Jared Gooden | 100 of 210 | 47% | 79 of 182 | 21 of 27 | 0 of 1 | 90 of 195 | 10 of 14 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alan Jouban | 41 of 96 | 42% | 29 of 80 | 11 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 35 of 87 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| Jared Gooden | 33 of 71 | 46% | 24 of 60 | 9 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 28 of 65 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Alan Jouban | 71 of 126 | 56% | 46 of 94 | 17 of 24 | 8 of 8 | 65 of 117 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| Jared Gooden | 35 of 72 | 48% | 27 of 61 | 8 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 32 of 68 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Alan Jouban | 56 of 109 | 51% | 41 of 88 | 11 of 16 | 4 of 5 | 50 of 101 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Jared Gooden | 32 of 67 | 47% | 28 of 61 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 30 of 62 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 1 |
Big Brady picks Jared Gooden to win by first-round knockout. He notes Jouban is 38 and has chin issues, while Gooden is younger and packs power. He thinks the small cage helps Gooden close distance, but if Gooden doesn't finish early, he may slow down.
Daniel picks his friend Jared Gooden, citing his forward pressure, volume striking, and youth advantage. He believes Jouban is aging and his chin is diminishing, and that Gooden's improved mindset and training will lead to a first-round knockout. He dismisses criticism of Gooden's past losses as due to weight class issues.
The host picks Alan Jouban but is not confident due to his age (38) and layoff. He thinks Jouban's durability is underrated and he has more ways to win, but is scared of the layoff and the hungry newcomer. He recommends staying away from betting this fight.
The MMA Guru picks Jared Gooden to win by KO in the first round. He cites Jouban's long layoff (since April 2019), age (38), and history of being KO'd. Gooden is younger, more active, and has power. He expects Gooden to crack Jouban early.
Wellington Turman - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Gooden | 0 | 37 of 57 | 64% | 46 of 73 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:40 |
| Wellington Turman | 0 | 53 of 83 | 63% | 62 of 95 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:31 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jared Gooden | 0 | 27 of 44 | 61% | 36 of 60 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:40 |
| Wellington Turman | 0 | 28 of 52 | 53% | 33 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jared Gooden | 0 | 10 of 13 | 76% | 10 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Wellington Turman | 0 | 25 of 31 | 80% | 29 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:31 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Gooden | 37 of 57 | 64% | 27 of 47 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 8 | 32 of 49 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 6 |
| Wellington Turman | 53 of 83 | 63% | 33 of 59 | 14 of 18 | 6 of 6 | 43 of 72 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 10 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jared Gooden | 27 of 44 | 61% | 18 of 35 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 7 | 23 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 6 |
| Wellington Turman | 28 of 52 | 53% | 9 of 30 | 13 of 16 | 6 of 6 | 28 of 52 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jared Gooden | 10 of 13 | 76% | 9 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Wellington Turman | 25 of 31 | 80% | 24 of 29 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 10 |
Big Brady leans toward Jared Gooden as a dog, noting he doesn't think Wellington Turman should be such a big favorite. He favors Gooden's striking and power, and thinks Gooden's takedown defense is solid enough to stuff Turman's wrestling. He expects a close fight but picks Gooden by decision, though he's not confident enough to bet on it.
Cody picks Turman, agreeing that he mixes in takedowns and makes it ugly. He thinks Turman's size at welterweight helps his grappling. He notes Turman trains with top guys and this is a good matchup. He doesn't love the price but picks him.
Lucrative James picks Wellington Turman, stating that despite Turman's inconsistent fight IQ and chin issues, he has too many advantages to lose. He notes Turman's decent striking and grappling skills, and believes he can win by decision or submission. He acknowledges Jared Gooden's power but thinks Turman's overall game will prevail.
Turman is a BJJ black belt with improving striking, and he should be able to take Gooden down and dominate on the ground. Gooden is a power striker with a developing ground game, but he has shown weakness when taken down and has weight-cutting issues. Turman is expected to be competitive on the feet before changing levels and securing a submission victory.
Paul picks Turman, citing his youth, move to welterweight, and training with Glover Teixeira. He thinks Turman's grappling and takedowns will be the difference. He notes Gooden's takedown defense is poor and Turman can mix in wrestling. He doesn't love the price but thinks Turman wins more often than not.
The MMA Guru picks Wellington Turman, impressed by his striking improvements under Alex Pereira's tutelage. He notes Turman arguably beat Randy Brown in his last fight and believes he can replicate that performance against Jared Gooden. He sees Turman as the more improving fighter at 27 years old and expects him to win.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randy Brown | 0 | 64 of 134 | 47% | 78 of 156 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:47 |
| Wellington Turman | 0 | 55 of 105 | 52% | 96 of 153 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 3:05 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Randy Brown | 0 | 31 of 69 | 44% | 31 of 69 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
| Wellington Turman | 0 | 25 of 52 | 48% | 26 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 | |
| 2 | Randy Brown | 0 | 15 of 30 | 50% | 28 of 50 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:21 |
| Wellington Turman | 0 | 12 of 18 | 66% | 42 of 54 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:17 | |
| 3 | Randy Brown | 0 | 18 of 35 | 51% | 19 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
| Wellington Turman | 0 | 18 of 35 | 51% | 28 of 46 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:43 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randy Brown | 64 of 134 | 47% | 21 of 85 | 17 of 23 | 26 of 26 | 53 of 121 | 11 of 13 | 0 of 0 |
| Wellington Turman | 55 of 105 | 52% | 19 of 60 | 10 of 14 | 26 of 31 | 43 of 90 | 12 of 15 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Randy Brown | 31 of 69 | 44% | 10 of 46 | 7 of 9 | 14 of 14 | 31 of 69 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Wellington Turman | 25 of 52 | 48% | 5 of 26 | 2 of 3 | 18 of 23 | 24 of 51 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Randy Brown | 15 of 30 | 50% | 3 of 17 | 3 of 4 | 9 of 9 | 5 of 20 | 10 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
| Wellington Turman | 12 of 18 | 66% | 4 of 10 | 4 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 7 of 12 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Randy Brown | 18 of 35 | 51% | 8 of 22 | 7 of 10 | 3 of 3 | 17 of 32 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Wellington Turman | 18 of 35 | 51% | 10 of 24 | 4 of 7 | 4 of 4 | 12 of 27 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo is confident in Randy Brown, citing his length, power, takedown defense, and BJJ. He expects Brown to stay on the outside and jab, avoiding a ground game. He notes Wellington Turman's striking looked good in his last fight but doesn't think it will be enough against Brown's reach and skills.
Big Brady picks Randy Brown, citing a significant striking advantage with a six-inch reach advantage. He notes Turman's questionable chin, having been knocked out by Andrew Sanchez. He acknowledges Turman's path to victory via wrestling but believes Brown's grappling is good enough to defend. He predicts a first-round knockout, especially if Turman has a bad weight cut.
Cody picks Brown, noting his speed and linear striking. He expects Turman to gas after the first round and Brown to take over. He mentions Turman's poor takedown accuracy and cardio issues.
Connor believes Randy Brown should win this fight easily. He notes that Brown has limitations like poor kick defense and a tendency to throw one shot from range that puts him out of position, but Turman's game is entirely based on dogged toughness and cage wrestling. Turman's takedowns come from the cage, not open space, and Brown is a great clinch fighter and hard to take down against the cage. Connor also points out that Turman is dropping down a division and has a six-inch reach disadvantage, making Brown feel fast. He thinks there's a lot of room for error for Brown, meaning a lot of room for fun.
Daniel Levi picks Randy Brown, citing his length, skill, and experience. He notes Brown's occasional showboating and chin questions but thinks he is the more skilled fighter. He is not laying -220 due to Brown's inconsistency and Turman's danger, but picks Brown to win.
The host picks Randy Brown to win by decision. He believes Brown's slick striking and distance management will be too much for Turman, who struggles to close the distance and get takedowns. He notes Turman's grappling advantage is nullified if he can't get the fight to the ground, and expects Brown to pick him apart from range.
Paul picks Brown, citing his speed and reach advantage. He expects Brown to use his jab and movement to win a decision, though he notes Turman's strength and potential grappling. He considers live betting if Turman wins the first round.
The Guru picks Randy Brown, expressing concern about Wellington Turman moving down to welterweight. He believes Brown has a clear skill advantage on the feet and that Turman's weight cut will leave him vulnerable. He predicts Brown will pick Turman apart with knees and elbows in the clinch and finish by TKO in the second round after Turman fails takedown attempts.
Zane agrees that Randy Brown should win. He notes that Brown has limitations like poor kick defense and a tendency to throw one shot from range that puts him out of position, but Turman's game is entirely based on dogged toughness and cage wrestling. Turman's takedowns come from the cage, not open space, and Brown is a great clinch fighter and hard to take down against the cage. Zane also points out that Turman is dropping down a division and has a six-inch reach disadvantage, making Brown feel fast. He thinks there's a lot of room for error for Brown, meaning a lot of room for fun.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Petroski | 0 | 42 of 96 | 43% | 58 of 119 | 8 of 11 | 72% | 2 | 0 | 7:59 |
| Wellington Turman | 0 | 41 of 86 | 47% | 71 of 118 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 | 0 | 1:40 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andre Petroski | 0 | 25 of 63 | 39% | 26 of 64 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:04 |
| Wellington Turman | 0 | 33 of 67 | 49% | 36 of 70 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 | |
| 2 | Andre Petroski | 0 | 12 of 22 | 54% | 16 of 29 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 | 0 | 2:23 |
| Wellington Turman | 0 | 7 of 15 | 46% | 24 of 33 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 | 0 | 1:32 | |
| 3 | Andre Petroski | 0 | 5 of 11 | 45% | 16 of 26 | 4 of 4 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 4:32 |
| Wellington Turman | 0 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 11 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Petroski | 42 of 96 | 43% | 32 of 83 | 9 of 11 | 1 of 2 | 32 of 78 | 3 of 3 | 7 of 15 |
| Wellington Turman | 41 of 86 | 47% | 22 of 54 | 12 of 23 | 7 of 9 | 38 of 82 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andre Petroski | 25 of 63 | 39% | 17 of 53 | 7 of 8 | 1 of 2 | 24 of 62 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Wellington Turman | 33 of 67 | 49% | 20 of 45 | 7 of 16 | 6 of 6 | 30 of 63 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 3 | |
| 2 | Andre Petroski | 12 of 22 | 54% | 10 of 19 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 5 |
| Wellington Turman | 7 of 15 | 46% | 1 of 8 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Andre Petroski | 5 of 11 | 45% | 5 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 10 |
| Wellington Turman | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Petroski (-195), Turman (+165)
Round 1
New Jersey’s Petroski has finished his first three fights in UFC competition, while Turman is riding the momentum of back-to-back wins over Misha Cirkunov and Sam Alvey. Keith Peterson will officiate the middleweight showdown. Turman lands a leg kick early. A straight right from Turman backs Petroski up. Petroski lands a leg kick of his own. Turman responds with a front kick to the body. Turman lands a glancing high kick, and Petroski answers with a left hook and a right hand that might’ve hurt Turman a little. Petroski is on the attack and he lands a jab. Turman lands a pair of solid kicks to the lead leg of his foe. A right hand over the top finds the mark for Petroski. Petroski with a body kick. Petroski shoots for a single leg and drives Turman to the fence, where he switches to a double and gets the Brazilian down. Petroski takes the back as Turman stands. Turman works to break the grip of his opponent, and Petroski takes the opportunity to land a right to the head. Turman turns and then escapes the position. Petroski blocks a high kick and the middleweights trade punches. Petroski backs up Turman with a right. Turman again goes with a high kick but it’s blocked. Turman jumps in with a knee. Turman is working the body know, blending in kicks and punches. Petroski shoots for a single leg, resets against the fence and gets Turman down before the horn. Turman lands some elbows to the head from his seat as time expires.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Turman
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Turman
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Turman
Round 2
Petroski lands a kick to the body. He sticks a jab into the mug of Turman. Turman with a right hand followed by a front kick to the midsection. Petroski lands a left to the body and shoots for a takedown behind it. He’s momentarily trapped in a guillotine but he escapes and winds up in side control. Turman regains half guard, then recovers full guard. Petroski jmps on Turman’s back as his opponent crawls toward the fence. He squeezes a neck crank but relinquishes the hold to return to top posiiton. Turman is able to stand and he goes back to working on Petroski’s body. That prompts Petroski to shoot. Turman can’t secure the guillotine but he assumes top position. Petroski explodes to his feet, but Turman maintains a rear body lock. Turman drags him down and Petroski pops up. Turman maintains the rear waist lock. He tries to lift Petroski up , but his opponent defends and reverses position. Petroski gets a takedown while trapping Turman’s arm behind him. He lets it go to take mount, then moves into Turman’s half guard. Turman tries to stay active with short punches from his back but they’re not doing much. Petroski ends the round with several hard elbows from half guard.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Petroski
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Petroski
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Petroski
Round 3
Petroski changes levels and briefly gets Turman down near the fence. He maintains a body lock and slams Turman back down. Petroski locks in a guillotine during a scramble and he applies the squeeze while falling back. Petroski moves to full mount but relents on the choke. He drops punches and elbows from above, then floats on top as Turman attempts to scramble. Petroski is still in full mount, looking to frame an arm triangle. Turman recovers his half guard. Petroski is still heavy on top, applying shoulder pressure to Turman. Turman has regained full guard now. Petroski covers his foe’s mouth before dropping a right hand. More right hands for Petroski. Petroski takes the back as Turman attempts to stand. Turman is back to his feet, but Petroski picks him up and dumps him back on the mat. Petroski with some right hands under the armpit as Turman stands again. Petroski still has the body lock against the fence, and he dumps Turman on the canvas once more. Turman looks to frame a leg lock in the last 20 seconds, but Petroski escapes without issue. Petroski ends the fight in mount, pounding away with left hands.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Petroski (29-28 Petroski)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Petroski (29-28 Petroski)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Petroski (29-28 Petroski)
The Official Result
Andre Petroski def. Wellington Turman via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28) R3 5:00
Angelo believes Petroski has superior wrestling and solid BJJ, and expects him to get takedowns and avoid submissions. He notes that Turman is training with Glover and Pajeda, which is a positive, but still picks Petroski. He warns that Turman's armbar over Misha Cirkunov was impressive and any mistake could cost Petroski. He plans to bet on Petroski's takedown line when it drops.
Big Brady picks Wellington Turman to win by third-round submission, pulling off an upset. He is not sold on Andre Petroski, citing his poor cardio and weak competition (Yizong, Michael Gilmore, Nick Maximov). He notes Turman is a legit BJJ black belt with 85% takedown defense, and that Petroski tired and got submitted by Brian Battle. He believes Turman will survive early pressure and get a late finish as Petroski fades.
Cody picks Turman as a slight flyer, noting that Petroski has suspect cardio despite third-round finishes. He thinks Turman is a better striker and has good grappling off his back, and that if Petroski gasses, Turman can take over. Cody also mentions that Turman trains with Glover Teixeira and Alex Pereira, which should have him in good shape. He sees value in the underdog price.
Connor picks Turman, reasoning that Petroski's high-energy, submission-hunting style leads to gassing, and Turman has never been submitted despite looking panicked. He notes that Turman has survived against dangerous grapplers and has more left in the tank after the first round. Connor acknowledges that Petroski will likely win the first round but expects Turman to take over as the fight goes on.
Daniel Levi picks Andre Petroski, citing his wrestling background, grappling credentials (submitted Eric Anders in a tournament), and high-volume pressure. He notes that Turman has shown weaknesses in getting his back taken and losing rounds late (e.g., Sam Alvey fight). Levi believes Petroski will win the first two rounds or get a finish, though he acknowledges Petroski's tendency to gas. He sees Turman as a step up in competition but thinks Petroski's grappling will be too much.
The host sees Petroski as the slightly better Jiu-Jitsu player with a strength advantage, but the line at -200 is too wide for him to bet. He considers the under 2.5 rounds but worries both grapplers could neutralize each other, leading to a decision. He predicts Petroski by submission in round 2 but with low conviction.
Paul also picks Turman, citing recency bias in the line. He notes that Petroski was a +300 underdog against Nick Maximov and now is -200 after a first-round submission, which seems like an overreaction. Paul thinks Turman can match Petroski on the ground and has more technical striking. He sees it as a clear dog-or-pass situation and takes Turman.
The MMA Guru picks Andre Petroski, citing his dominant performances and grappling wins over Eric Anders and Phil Hawes. He believes Petroski has advantages on both feet and ground, with good chain takedowns and submission awareness. He predicts a decision win, noting Turman's unimpressive split decision over Sam Alvey.
Zane agrees with Connor, picking Turman. He notes that Petroski gasses but doesn't seem to know it, and his striking is not functional when tired. Zane points out that Turman has a history of surviving and finding ways to win, even if it's ugly. He also mentions that Petroski's path to victory is narrow, relying on an early finish.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wellington Turman | 0 | 30 of 44 | 68% | 50 of 64 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 | 0 | 3:04 |
| Misha Cirkunov | 0 | 15 of 19 | 78% | 24 of 28 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 2 | 0 | 2:15 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wellington Turman | 0 | 23 of 34 | 67% | 33 of 44 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 2:06 |
| Misha Cirkunov | 0 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 8 of 10 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 2:15 | |
| 2 | Wellington Turman | 0 | 7 of 10 | 70% | 17 of 20 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:58 |
| Misha Cirkunov | 0 | 11 of 13 | 84% | 16 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wellington Turman | 30 of 44 | 68% | 20 of 33 | 9 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 16 | 2 of 2 | 20 of 26 |
| Misha Cirkunov | 15 of 19 | 78% | 8 of 12 | 6 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 12 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wellington Turman | 23 of 34 | 67% | 17 of 27 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 20 of 26 |
| Misha Cirkunov | 4 of 6 | 66% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Wellington Turman | 7 of 10 | 70% | 3 of 6 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Misha Cirkunov | 11 of 13 | 84% | 5 of 7 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 6 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Misha Cirkunov to win, likely by first-round TKO. He notes Cirkunov is much bigger with a five-inch reach advantage and has very good wrestling and grappling, having submitted legit light heavyweights. He criticizes Turman's striking defense and negative strike differential, and points out that Turman was outgrappled by Carl Roberson. Brady believes Cirkunov can win on the feet or on the mat, and sees Turman's path to victory as unlikely.
Cody picks Turman as an underdog, citing his youth (25), better cardio, and training at Glover Teixeira's gym. He notes Cirkunov's poor striking, declining chin, and inability to get takedowns against Giaco. Cody believes Turman's volume and durability will pay off as Cirkunov fades, and he plans to live-bet Turman if Cirkunov doesn't finish early.
Daniel Levi picks Wellington Turman to edge out a decision. He questions Misha Cirkunov's heart and notes he has folded in tough fights. Levi believes Turman is hungrier and more confident after his last win, and that Cirkunov's best days are behind him. He warns that Turman must avoid getting finished early but expects him to pull away down the stretch.
The host leans with Cirkunov, believing he will be stronger and craftier in grappling exchanges. He expects Cirkunov to land takedowns and assert top position, eventually finding a finish via submission or ground and pound. He notes both fighters have durability and fight IQ issues but favors Cirkunov's jiu-jitsu from the top. His favorite play is 'fight doesn't go to decision' at -190.
Paul leans toward Turman as an underdog, noting both fighters are chinny but Turman has better volume and striking. He parlayed the over 1.5 rounds in this fight with Gegard Mousasi at +128. Paul sees this as a competitive fight that could go either way, but Turman's cardio and youth give him an edge.
The MMA Guru picks Misha Cirkunov to win by arm-triangle submission in the second round. He believes Cirkunov's size, physicality, and strong grappling will be too much for Wellington Turman, who has been taken down and finished by lesser grapplers. He notes that Turman has been KO'd multiple times and that Cirkunov's experience and strength will tip the grappling exchanges in his favor. The Guru expects a close fight on the feet but sees Cirkunov securing dominant positions and finishing with an arm triangle.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wellington Turman | 0 | 68 of 122 | 55% | 114 of 169 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:54 |
| Sam Alvey | 0 | 69 of 119 | 57% | 75 of 126 | 2 of 9 | 22% | 0 | 0 | 2:54 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wellington Turman | 0 | 8 of 20 | 40% | 42 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:58 |
| Sam Alvey | 0 | 13 of 16 | 81% | 17 of 20 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 1:50 | |
| 2 | Wellington Turman | 0 | 26 of 44 | 59% | 32 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
| Sam Alvey | 0 | 24 of 44 | 54% | 24 of 44 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:54 | |
| 3 | Wellington Turman | 0 | 34 of 58 | 58% | 40 of 64 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:48 |
| Sam Alvey | 0 | 32 of 59 | 54% | 34 of 62 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wellington Turman | 68 of 122 | 55% | 55 of 105 | 9 of 13 | 4 of 4 | 58 of 112 | 10 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
| Sam Alvey | 69 of 119 | 57% | 36 of 77 | 19 of 27 | 14 of 15 | 63 of 113 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wellington Turman | 8 of 20 | 40% | 8 of 19 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 17 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Sam Alvey | 13 of 16 | 81% | 4 of 7 | 5 of 5 | 4 of 4 | 10 of 13 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Wellington Turman | 26 of 44 | 59% | 17 of 34 | 5 of 6 | 4 of 4 | 21 of 39 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Sam Alvey | 24 of 44 | 54% | 12 of 29 | 5 of 8 | 7 of 7 | 24 of 44 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Wellington Turman | 34 of 58 | 58% | 30 of 52 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 32 of 56 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Sam Alvey | 32 of 59 | 54% | 20 of 41 | 9 of 14 | 3 of 4 | 29 of 56 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Turman, citing his BJJ black belt, slick ground game, and clear path to victory via takedowns. He notes training feedback from Dan Cramer that Turman feels good. He acknowledges Alvey's deceptive power but believes Turman will get the submission.
Cody picks Alvey as a dog, citing his strong takedown defense and power. He notes that Turman has poor takedown accuracy and tends to lose position on the ground. Cody thinks Alvey's veteran savvy and ability to fight 15 minutes will pay off. He is concerned about Alvey's recent losing streak but believes the style matchup favors him.
Jacob picks Turman but is hesitant, noting Turman was knocked out cold two months ago and may be hesitant. He agrees the UFC is feeding Alvey to Turman, but warns Alvey is tough and could win if he eats shots. He stayed away from betting.
Lock picks Alvey by KO at +300, believing Alvey's power and durability will be too much for Turman. He notes Turman has shown poor durability, getting knocked out by Andrew Sanchez and Bruno Silva. Lock thinks Alvey's takedown defense and clinch strength will keep the fight standing, where he can land a big shot. He expects Alvey to win minutes only by knockout, not decision.
Paul picks Alvey, surprised himself but noting that Turman is the exact type of fighter Alvey can beat. He highlights Alvey's takedown defense and left hand power. Paul thinks Turman's grappling is overrated and that he tires easily. He expects Alvey to win by knockout or decision.
The Guru picks Sam Alvey as an underdog, questioning Wellington Turman's chin after two consecutive KO losses and his quick return. He believes Alvey's toughness, cardio, and grappling awareness will allow him to outlast Turman and win a unanimous decision. The Guru dismisses Turman's grappling threat and expects Alvey to display veteran savvy.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bruno Silva | 0 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 12 of 12 | 0 of 10 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:52 |
| Wellington Turman | 0 | 19 of 26 | 73% | 28 of 37 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:38 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bruno Silva | 0 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 12 of 12 | 0 of 10 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:52 |
| Wellington Turman | 0 | 19 of 26 | 73% | 28 of 37 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:38 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bruno Silva | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Wellington Turman | 19 of 26 | 73% | 18 of 24 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 19 of 24 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bruno Silva | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Wellington Turman | 19 of 26 | 73% | 18 of 24 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 19 of 24 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
The overused adage of “classic striker vs. grappler” matchup rings true for this middleweight contest, as Turman (16-4, 1-2 UFC) welcomes former M-1 champ Silva (19-6, 0-0 UFC) to the Octagon. Not to be confused with Bruno “Bulldog” Silva who competes in the UFC at flyweight, this Brazilian goes by “Blindado” and he sports a knockout rate of 84 percent. The touch of gloves comes before referee Chris Tognoni, and the fight is underway. The two tentatively strike out of the gate, but Turman is much more interesting in grappling as he hunts for a takedown. Silva defends with a clear fence grab, and then another, leading Tognoni to call him on it. Turman kicks off the fence, lifts the newcomer in the air and slams him down. Silva springs back up and turns the tide, even taking Turman’s back standing up. Turman defends this with a fence grab, and he utilizes a kimura to toss Silva down for a moment. When “Blindado” gets back up, Turman lifts him up and slams him down, nearly on his head. Silva is already back to a knee, and Turman looks to take his back. Once more, Turman kicks from the cage to put Silva down, and Silva pops back up. Turman hops on to serve as a backpack, where Silva is standing up leaning on the fence and Turman is fishing for a submission. The fence grab clearly the most significant tool of the evening, Silva gets away with two more when he tries to turn around and break the grip of Turman. The grappler looks to cinch up an armbar when he slides off, as Silva shimmies him off by getting out the back door. Silva climbs into his foe’s full guard, and he starts smashing his fists into Turman’s face with ferocious ground-and-pound. Turman’s head bounces off the canvas several times, but Turman keeps the wherewithal to pull for an armbar. When Silva escapes this, Turman lands an illegal upkick right on Silva’s chin. Silva ignores it and continues his assault of ground punches.
In full guard, “Blindado” blinds Turman with a barrage of punches, and as they mount, Turman goes out cold. Tognoni sees Turman’s eyes roll back and he is able to stop the fight right in time, as Silva’s left hands from on top were lethal weapons.
That is 17 knockouts in 20 wins for Silva, who announces his presence in a big way to the UFC two years after intended – Silva tested positive for boldenone before making his debut, delaying him until now. Either way, this is a statement win by recording a clean knockout from the guard position.
The Official Result
Bruno Silva def. Wellington Turman R1 4:45 via KO (Punches)
Angelo picks Bruno Silva, citing his knockout power and clinch work. He acknowledges the layoff and PED suspension as question marks. He thinks Silva can catch Turman early, but is not confident enough to bet straight. He bet on Turman by submission at +500 and under 2.5 rounds, hedging both sides.
Big Brady sees this as a 50/50 fight. He notes Silva has many submission losses and poor grappling, while Turman is a BJJ black belt. He thinks Turman will get takedowns and submit Silva, but acknowledges Silva could knock him out early.
Cody picks Silva, emphasizing Silva's knockout power and proven ability as a sizable underdog in Russia. He notes Silva's cardio issues and two-year layoff but believes his power and pressure will overwhelm Turman, who has suspect chin and wrestling. Cody suggests Silva by KO is a solid play.
Daniel Levi picks Bruno Silva in his long-awaited UFC debut, but with hesitation due to the two-year layoff and USADA suspension. He notes that Silva looked impressive in his wins over Alexander Shlemenko and Artem Frolov, and that he has improved his get-up game and durability. However, he worries about Silva gassing out or giving up bad positions if he comes in too emotional. He expects a knockout if Silva is the same fighter.
Jacob picks Wellington Turman, citing his BJJ and body lock takedowns. He thinks Turman will take Silva down and submit him, noting Silva's losses by submission. He is concerned about Silva's power but believes Turman's grappling will prevail. He does not have either in his lineup.
The host picks Wellington Turman, citing his grappling ability and the uncertainty around Bruno Silva coming off a USADA suspension. He believes Turman can get the fight to the ground and nullify Silva's power. He notes Silva's sketchy takedown defense and that Turman is a solid grappler. He predicts a decision win for Turman, but also sees a submission as live given Silva has been tapped before. He acknowledges Turman's recent KO loss but thinks his chin will hold up.
Paul picks Silva, noting his power and the fact that he was a plus 145 underdog initially. He mentions Silva's cardio and layoff as red flags but believes his power is a difference-maker. Paul also likes the under 2.5 rounds and Silva by KO props.
The MMA Guru picks Bruno Silva to win by first-round KO. He expects Silva to have nervous energy and blitz Turman early, landing a KO blow. He notes Turman's recent first-round KO loss and Silva's KO power. He also mentions Turman showed up with gyno, which he finds notable. He predicts a brutal KO in the first round.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Sanchez | 1 | 28 of 55 | 50% | 40 of 68 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:11 |
| Wellington Turman | 0 | 21 of 51 | 41% | 26 of 56 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andrew Sanchez | 1 | 28 of 55 | 50% | 40 of 68 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:11 |
| Wellington Turman | 0 | 21 of 51 | 41% | 26 of 56 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Sanchez | 28 of 55 | 50% | 23 of 48 | 4 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 26 of 53 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Wellington Turman | 21 of 51 | 41% | 16 of 40 | 1 of 7 | 4 of 4 | 21 of 51 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andrew Sanchez | 28 of 55 | 50% | 23 of 48 | 4 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 26 of 53 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Wellington Turman | 21 of 51 | 41% | 16 of 40 | 1 of 7 | 4 of 4 | 21 of 51 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Sanchez as an underdog, believing his wrestling and takedown defense will neutralize Turman's ground game. He notes Sanchez's higher striking volume and experience. He predicts a decision win for Sanchez.
Daniel Levi leans with Wellington Turman, but acknowledges it could go either way. He notes that Turman is young, hungry, and has shown improvement, while Sanchez has questions about his chin and cardio. Levi believes Turman's aggression and youth might edge out a split decision, but he is not confident due to Sanchez's wrestling and durability.
Sanchez's wrestling should be able to take Turman down and control him, as Turman's takedown defense is not as strong as Marvin Vettori's. Sanchez showed improved cardio in his last fight, but his past cardio issues are a concern. He should avoid submissions from Turman and grind out a decision, though the third round could be dangerous if he gasses.
The MMA Guru picks Andrew Sanchez in a tough 50/50 fight. He notes that Wellington Turman hasn't done anything dominantly, while Sanchez has beaten decent opponents and is the bigger guy with a reach advantage. He expects Sanchez to wear Turman down over three rounds and win a unanimous decision.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wellington Turman | 0 | 49 of 96 | 51% | 56 of 103 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:21 |
| Markus Perez | 0 | 48 of 120 | 40% | 59 of 132 | 2 of 9 | 22% | 0 | 0 | 6:42 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wellington Turman | 0 | 12 of 29 | 41% | 13 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:34 |
| Markus Perez | 0 | 9 of 35 | 25% | 9 of 35 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:24 | |
| 2 | Wellington Turman | 0 | 15 of 31 | 48% | 18 of 34 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:31 |
| Markus Perez | 0 | 23 of 48 | 47% | 28 of 53 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:40 | |
| 3 | Wellington Turman | 0 | 22 of 36 | 61% | 25 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:16 |
| Markus Perez | 0 | 16 of 37 | 43% | 22 of 44 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:38 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wellington Turman | 49 of 96 | 51% | 33 of 72 | 13 of 21 | 3 of 3 | 26 of 67 | 21 of 26 | 2 of 3 |
| Markus Perez | 48 of 120 | 40% | 35 of 103 | 8 of 12 | 5 of 5 | 23 of 91 | 19 of 21 | 6 of 8 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wellington Turman | 12 of 29 | 41% | 7 of 21 | 3 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 22 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Markus Perez | 9 of 35 | 25% | 5 of 29 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 32 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Wellington Turman | 15 of 31 | 48% | 10 of 24 | 4 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 23 | 5 of 7 | 1 of 1 |
| Markus Perez | 23 of 48 | 47% | 15 of 38 | 5 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 11 of 34 | 11 of 13 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Wellington Turman | 22 of 36 | 61% | 16 of 27 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 22 | 10 of 12 | 1 of 2 |
| Markus Perez | 16 of 37 | 43% | 15 of 36 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 25 | 5 of 5 | 5 of 7 |
Expert Picks (6)
Big Brady leans toward Jared Gooden as a dog, noting he doesn't think Wellington Turman should be such a big favorite. He favors Gooden's striking and power, and thinks Gooden's takedown defense is solid enough to stuff Turman's wrestling. He expects a close fight but picks Gooden by decision, though he's not confident enough to bet on it.
Cody picks Turman, agreeing that he mixes in takedowns and makes it ugly. He thinks Turman's size at welterweight helps his grappling. He notes Turman trains with top guys and this is a good matchup. He doesn't love the price but picks him.
Lucrative James picks Wellington Turman, stating that despite Turman's inconsistent fight IQ and chin issues, he has too many advantages to lose. He notes Turman's decent striking and grappling skills, and believes he can win by decision or submission. He acknowledges Jared Gooden's power but thinks Turman's overall game will prevail.
Turman is a BJJ black belt with improving striking, and he should be able to take Gooden down and dominate on the ground. Gooden is a power striker with a developing ground game, but he has shown weakness when taken down and has weight-cutting issues. Turman is expected to be competitive on the feet before changing levels and securing a submission victory.
Paul picks Turman, citing his youth, move to welterweight, and training with Glover Teixeira. He thinks Turman's grappling and takedowns will be the difference. He notes Gooden's takedown defense is poor and Turman can mix in wrestling. He doesn't love the price but thinks Turman wins more often than not.
The MMA Guru picks Wellington Turman, impressed by his striking improvements under Alex Pereira's tutelage. He notes Turman arguably beat Randy Brown in his last fight and believes he can replicate that performance against Jared Gooden. He sees Turman as the more improving fighter at 27 years old and expects him to win.
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