UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues · Aug 22, 2026 · Middleweight · Scheduled
Age 32
Height 6' 0"
Reach 75.0"
Weight 185 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 34
Height 6' 3"
Reach 75.0"
Weight 185 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Anthony Hernandez
4.57 SLpM
60.0% Str. Acc.
3.1 SApM
51.0% Str. Def.
5.88 TD Avg
48.0% TD Acc.
68.0% TD Def.
1.6 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Gregory Rodrigues
5.53 SLpM
51.0% Str. Acc.
4.78 SApM
50.0% Str. Def.
1.9 TD Avg
34.0% TD Acc.
75.0% TD Def.
0.4 Sub. Avg
Anthony Hernandez - Fight History
LOSS vs Sean Strickland
KO R3 2:23 · UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · Feb 21, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Sean Strickland 1 110 of 241 45% 111 of 242 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:18
Anthony Hernandez 0 55 of 122 45% 57 of 124 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:32
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Sean Strickland 0 32 of 90 35% 33 of 91 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Anthony Hernandez 0 23 of 48 47% 23 of 48 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:20
2 Sean Strickland 0 37 of 79 46% 37 of 79 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Anthony Hernandez 0 23 of 47 48% 23 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
3 Sean Strickland 1 41 of 72 56% 41 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Anthony Hernandez 0 9 of 27 33% 11 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Sean Strickland 110 of 241 45% 93 of 219 9 of 14 8 of 8 101 of 230 2 of 3 7 of 8
Anthony Hernandez 55 of 122 45% 29 of 93 13 of 16 13 of 13 55 of 120 0 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Sean Strickland 32 of 90 35% 24 of 80 3 of 5 5 of 5 32 of 90 0 of 0 0 of 0
Anthony Hernandez 23 of 48 47% 12 of 37 5 of 5 6 of 6 23 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Sean Strickland 37 of 79 46% 30 of 69 4 of 7 3 of 3 37 of 79 0 of 0 0 of 0
Anthony Hernandez 23 of 47 48% 12 of 36 6 of 6 5 of 5 23 of 47 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Sean Strickland 41 of 72 56% 39 of 70 2 of 2 0 of 0 32 of 61 2 of 3 7 of 8
Anthony Hernandez 9 of 27 33% 5 of 20 2 of 5 2 of 2 9 of 25 0 of 2 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Sean Strickland vs. Anthony Hernandez

Round 1
Herb Dean is the referee. Strickland lands an inside leg kick followed by a jab. A 1-2 from Strickland keeps Hernandez at bay. Hernandez lands a hard calf kick. Strickland, as expected, is using his jab liberally. Hernandez jabs the body. Inside leg kick lands for Hernandez and he jabs the body Strickland continues to pump his jab in Hernandez’s mug. Hernandez just misses a right hand. Hernandez looks to get inside and Strickland lands a short uppercut. Strickland follows a front kick with a jab. Strickland tags Hernadnez with a combination and “Fluffy” grins at him. Hernandez follows a combination by clinching with Strickland, but the former champ is able to circle out and extract himself. Multiple jabs land for Strickland. Hernandez fires back and Strickland appears to slip as he circles away. A solid right lands for Hernandez and Stirckland angels out. Strickland keeps firing his lead hand to keep Hernandez at a safe distance, but “Fluffy” is having his moments to land, as well. Hernandez follows an inside leg kick with a late flurry before the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Strickland

Round 2
Strickland with an inside low kick. They both trade low kicks. Hernandez fakes a takedown and then follows with an overhand right. Strickland lands a straight right. Hernandez pressures but Strickland is able to angle out of dnager. Hernandez counters a front kick with a right. More jabs and then a rigth hand connect for Strickland. A solid leg kick connects for “Fluffy.” Strickland’s patented jab and front kick both find the range. They briefly trade in close quarters, with Hernandez finding the rage on an uppercut. Hernandez pressures and Strickland pumps out his jab. Hernandez lands a jab of his own, but he’s still struggling to get into takedown range. Hernandez jabs the body. Strickland lands a 1-2. Hernandez answers with a couple shots to the body. They clinch and Strickland pushes Hernandez into the fence. They separate in short order with 40 seconds to go. Hernandez gets inside and forces the clinch, but Strickland lands an elbow as they separate. Strickland lands a nice combination late in the round.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Strickland

Round 3
Hernandez follows a combination with a head kick early to provide a different look. Strickland doubles up on his jab. Hernandez is trying to put pressure on his opponent, but Strickland always seems to have an anwer with volume and intelligent movement. Hernandez forces the clinch, but Strickland lands an elbow on the break. Moments later, Strickland seems to have hurt Hernandez with a knee to the body. Hernandez is on the retreat as he tries to recover.
Strickland goes in for the kill and it’s just a barrage of punches as Hernandez covers up against the fence. A series of uppercuts does the trick, and finally “Fluffy” goes down. Strickland polishes off the victory with about eight unanswered standing-to-ground punches.
That’s the end of Hernandez’s eight-fight UFC winning streak, and don’t look now, but Strickland is right back in the thick of the middleweight title picture.

The Official Result
Sean Strickland def. Anthony Hernandez via TKO (Knee to the Body and Punches) R3 2:33
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Angelo picks Anthony Hernandez, drawing parallels to DDP's wins over Strickland via relentless forward pressure. He believes Hernandez's cardio and takedown volume will prevent Strickland from settling into his jab-heavy style. He respects Strickland's resume but thinks the matchup favors Hernandez.

"Anthony Hernandez has to be the pick."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2026 (13 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Big Brady picks Anthony 'Fluffy' Hernandez to defeat Sean Strickland. He notes that Strickland has not wrestled in years, landing only two takedowns in his last several five-round fights, and that Fluffy's relentless takedown pressure will exhaust Strickland for the first time. He predicts Fluffy will land 10-15 takedowns over 25 minutes and win a decision, though a late finish wouldn't surprise him. He emphasizes Fluffy's cardio and ability to repeatedly take down opponents.

Fluffy by decision; over 10.5 takedowns implied
"I think Fluffy can go out there against Strickland here and I think he can put up 15 plus takedowns... I like Fluffy here to win this fight. I'll say it's by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Cody believes Strickland hasn't shown knockout power and that Hernandez's cardio and grappling will be too much. He notes Strickland's tendency to abandon game plans and thinks Hernandez wins by decision or late finish. He also mentions that Strickland's split decision history makes him unreliable as a favorite.

"I think Fluffy wins. I think Fluffy probably by decision, maybe a late finish."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Sean Strickland

Connor picks Strickland because he believes Hernandez's pressure will be too slow to overcome Strickland's defensive jab and front kicks. He notes that Hernandez has never faced a sprawl-and-brawl type like Strickland, and that Strickland's takedown defense, while questionable, should hold up enough to win early rounds. He also points out that Strickland has only been finished twice by huge shots, which Hernandez is unlikely to land.

Strickland by decision; odds: Strickland +230, Hernandez -270; Connor thinks the line should be closer to even
"I'm picking Sean Strickland though by decision. Hope I'm wrong."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert picked Feb 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)

The host is torn on this fight. He acknowledges that all the value lies with Strickland as a +225 underdog, citing Hernandez's injury concerns and Strickland's elite cardio and takedown defense. However, he also notes that Strickland lacks finishing power and is passive at times, making a decision win difficult. He ultimately cannot decide whether to bet Strickland and passes on betting Hernandez due to the steep -290 price.

Hernandez injury concern; Strickland lacks finishing power; fight likely goes to decision
"I haven't made my mind up on this one yet. I really haven't."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Lucrative James picks Fluffy Hernandez to win by decision, citing his relentless pace, pressure, and cardio. He notes that Strickland has all the tools to win but often makes poor decisions in the cage, as seen in his last fight against Du Plessis. James believes Hernandez's volume and grappling will overwhelm Strickland over five rounds, though he admits the betting value is on Strickland at plus money.

"I am going to end up saying that I believe Fluffy Hernandez wins a decision here."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 17, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Hernandez is on an eight-fight winning streak with relentless wrestling and improved durability. Strickland's takedown defense is good, but Hernandez's pace and ability to chain wrestle should wear him down. Strickland will have success on the feet, but Hernandez's grappling control and submission threats should win rounds. The over 4.5 rounds is also a strong play as both have great cardio.

over 4.5 rounds at -120
"I'm going Anthony Fluffy Hernandez by decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Paul acknowledges Strickland's takedown defense and cardio but questions his motivation and age (turning 35). He thinks Hernandez's constant pressure and grappling will edge him on scorecards, and notes that Strickland's style leaves him at mercy of judges. He prefers to live bet Hernandez after the first round.

"Hernandez winning in a main event against a former champion in Sean Strickland in Texas and his last name is Hernandez. This is what his career needs."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Sean Strickland

The MMA Guru picks Sean Strickland, believing his teep to the body and high output will be key. He notes Hernandez is often hurt to the body and that Strickland is difficult to hold down. He thinks Strickland's wrestling instincts and training with Chimaev and Ankalaev will help him stuff takedowns. He predicts a fourth or fifth round TKO.

fourth or fifth round TKO, teep to the body, underdog
"I think Strickland's going to win this one by fourth or fifth round TKO."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Feb 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Zane picks Hernandez despite sharing Connor's caution. He argues that Hernandez's pressure is methodical and builds over time, and that Strickland's footwork falls apart under pressure. He notes that Hernandez has improved his striking significantly, using feints and leg kicks to cut off the cage, and that Strickland has never faced a pressure grappler like Hernandez. He also points out that Strickland's win condition relies on frustrating opponents, but Hernandez has a different mindset and will keep coming.

Zane thinks the line should be closer to even; notes Strickland opened +110 and is now +230, Hernandez opened -250 and is now -270
"I am picking Anthony Hernandez. Again, I see what you're saying. You know, I share the caution, but I just think Hernandez is as much as Sean Strickland is a kind of opponent that Hernandez has never fought, I don't …"
WIN vs Roman Dolidze
Submission R4 2:45 · UFC on ESPN: Dolidze vs. Hernandez · Aug 09, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Roman Dolidze 0 36 of 107 33% 39 of 110 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:45
Anthony Hernandez 0 91 of 152 59% 120 of 187 9 of 11 81% 1 0 7:48
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Roman Dolidze 0 10 of 31 32% 13 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:45
Anthony Hernandez 0 19 of 37 51% 21 of 39 2 of 4 50% 0 0 0:50
2 Roman Dolidze 0 20 of 52 38% 20 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Anthony Hernandez 0 44 of 73 60% 52 of 83 3 of 3 100% 0 0 1:47
3 Roman Dolidze 0 4 of 16 25% 4 of 16 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Anthony Hernandez 0 18 of 27 66% 28 of 38 3 of 3 100% 0 0 3:28
4 Roman Dolidze 0 2 of 8 25% 2 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Anthony Hernandez 0 10 of 15 66% 19 of 27 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:43
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Roman Dolidze 36 of 107 33% 25 of 88 4 of 11 7 of 8 34 of 101 2 of 6 0 of 0
Anthony Hernandez 91 of 152 59% 67 of 128 6 of 6 18 of 18 48 of 102 13 of 18 30 of 32
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Roman Dolidze 10 of 31 32% 5 of 25 0 of 1 5 of 5 9 of 30 1 of 1 0 of 0
Anthony Hernandez 19 of 37 51% 11 of 29 1 of 1 7 of 7 16 of 34 3 of 3 0 of 0
2 Roman Dolidze 20 of 52 38% 15 of 42 3 of 7 2 of 3 19 of 49 1 of 3 0 of 0
Anthony Hernandez 44 of 73 60% 38 of 67 2 of 2 4 of 4 22 of 47 7 of 11 15 of 15
3 Roman Dolidze 4 of 16 25% 3 of 13 1 of 3 0 of 0 4 of 15 0 of 1 0 of 0
Anthony Hernandez 18 of 27 66% 11 of 20 2 of 2 5 of 5 5 of 13 0 of 0 13 of 14
4 Roman Dolidze 2 of 8 25% 2 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 7 0 of 1 0 of 0
Anthony Hernandez 10 of 15 66% 7 of 12 1 of 1 2 of 2 5 of 8 3 of 4 2 of 3
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Aug 3, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Angelo leans Anthony Hernandez, citing his incredible cardio and pace. He notes Hernandez is a good grappler but Roman Dolidze is a phenomenal grappler with power. Angelo thinks Hernandez will take over in later rounds with pressure, similar to Umar vs Morab. He expects Hernandez to win a decision after giving up early rounds.

"I am going to lean Anthony Hernandez here."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Big Brady is confident in Anthony Hernandez, calling him a future champion with an unmatched pace. He acknowledges Dolidze's power and tricky grappling, but believes Hernandez will survive the early rounds and take over as Dolidze's cardio fades. Brady predicts a late finish, specifically a fifth-round TKO.

fifth round knockout
"I'm going to go with Hernandez here. I'm going to take him to win by fifth round knockout TKO."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Connor picks Anthony Hernandez because Hernandez has a clear, consistent game plan focused on relentless wrestling and pace, while Dolidze is clumsy, slow, and has poor takedown defense. He notes that Hernandez's cardio and mental toughness are key, and that Dolidze's only path to victory is an opportunistic finish early. Connor compares it to Ngannou vs. Gane, where the smaller wrestler exhausts the bigger opponent.

Odds mentioned: Dolidze opened +145, jumped to +285, currently +270; Hernandez opened -170, currently -330.
"You have to pick Anthony Hernandez. He's the only guy who seems like a good middleweight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

The host expects Hernandez to utilize his classic smothering grappling game and put it on Dolidze. He acknowledges Dolidze will land big shots early, but believes Hernandez can eat them and eventually break Dolidze, leading to a round four or five finish by submission.

submission, round 4 or 5
"look for him to utilize his classic smothering grappling game and really putting it on to and as long as he can eat a few big shots early that are definitely going to land from I think it's just a …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Roman Dolidze

The MMA Guru picks Roman Dolidze, highlighting his underrated jiu-jitsu and ability to attack from his back. He believes Dolidze's size and presence on the feet will trouble Hernandez, who relies on volume. He predicts a submission or ground-and-pound TKO in round two or three, possibly after hurting Hernandez on the feet.

Dolidze wins by submission or TKO in round 2 or 3
"I'm going with Roman Dizzier. ... I think Ditzi's got a perfect anti-grappler style."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Zane agrees with Connor, emphasizing that Hernandez's wrestling process is relentless and that Dolidze's takedown defense is terrible (33%). He notes that Hernandez is a smaller middleweight but has great cardio, while Dolidze is a big, lumbering oaf who gasses. Zane thinks Hernandez will exhaust Dolidze against the cage and eventually get a finish.

Odds mentioned: Dolidze opened +145, jumped to +285, currently +270; Hernandez opened -170, currently -330.
"Yeah, he's the only guy who seems like a good middleweight."
WIN vs Brendan Allen
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song · Feb 22, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Brendan Allen 0 14 of 26 53% 53 of 71 0 of 1 0% 1 3 2:58
Anthony Hernandez 0 30 of 42 71% 72 of 91 4 of 8 50% 0 2 10:22
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Brendan Allen 0 8 of 13 61% 30 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 1 2:09
Anthony Hernandez 0 3 of 5 60% 10 of 13 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:23
2 Brendan Allen 0 1 of 1 100% 6 of 8 0 of 0 --- 1 1 0:44
Anthony Hernandez 0 13 of 16 81% 25 of 29 1 of 1 100% 0 1 4:04
3 Brendan Allen 0 5 of 12 41% 17 of 25 0 of 1 0% 0 1 0:05
Anthony Hernandez 0 14 of 21 66% 37 of 49 2 of 5 40% 0 1 3:55
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Brendan Allen 14 of 26 53% 8 of 19 3 of 3 3 of 4 10 of 22 2 of 2 2 of 2
Anthony Hernandez 30 of 42 71% 30 of 42 0 of 0 0 of 0 12 of 17 0 of 1 18 of 24
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Brendan Allen 8 of 13 61% 4 of 9 2 of 2 2 of 2 6 of 11 0 of 0 2 of 2
Anthony Hernandez 3 of 5 60% 3 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 3
2 Brendan Allen 1 of 1 100% 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Anthony Hernandez 13 of 16 81% 13 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 12 of 15
3 Brendan Allen 5 of 12 41% 4 of 10 1 of 1 0 of 1 3 of 10 2 of 2 0 of 0
Anthony Hernandez 14 of 21 66% 14 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0 11 of 14 0 of 1 3 of 6
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Brendan Allen vs. Anthony Hernandez

Round 1
In 2018, Allen (24-6, 12-3 UFC) and Hernandez (13-2, 1 NC; 7-2 UFC) collided for the LFA middleweight strap, and “Fluffy” emerged the victor by decision. Since then, both men have made their mark on the UFC’s 185-pound division, and a spot in the top 10 now looms for the winner. Referee Mike Beltran will get to handle the proceedings for the co-main event, one that should have two extra rounds. Gloves are touched, and Allen opens up with a hearty low kick. Allen probes out a few jabs, and he disrupts Hernandez who is looking for an early takedown. Allen nails his foe with a leg kick and then wraps a head kick around the guard. With Hernandez stunned, Allen jumps on to his back, only for Hernandez to hurl him to his back. Allen scrambles wildly to get to his knees, and he nearly gets Hernandez’ back again in the process. Hernandez stops him from completing a takedown or back take, and he leans Allen against the wall. “Fluffy” wrangles Allen to the mat, where he lands in side control. The knee guard from Allen protects him from losing mount, and he sits up and leans up against the cage while Hernandez is still behind him. Allen tries to stand, but Hernandez is on him like a cheap suit, pushing on the back of Allen’s neck while always flirting with some kind of submission setup. Allen turns him around to claim top position, flipping Hernandez to his back and dropping down a few strikes. Hernandez strikes back off his back, being busy enough to make Allen think twice about recklessly passing guard. Allen partially isolates an arm-triangle choke while sitting in half guard, and Hernandez motions a thumbs-up to his corner. Allen postures up and jacks Hernandez in the jaw with a few punches, and he isolates Hernandez’ arm for an armlock setup. Allen nearly takes the back, but he slides into mount and starts hammering Hernandez in the face with right hands and elbows. Allen wraps up a rear-naked choke, and it is briefly under the chin until Hernandez turns himself to his back and slithers out. Allen smashes down with a number of elbows that split Hernandez’ forehead open, and the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Allen
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Allen
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Allen

Round 2
Allen kicks off the round with another powerful low kick, and Hernandez sprints at him in pursuit of a takedown. As they whirl around, Hernandez succeeds in grounding Allen. Hernandez hangs on from the side and keeps Allen on his seat, and he leans over to wrap up a guillotine choke. Allen escapes the submissions without a modicum of concern, and he keeps moving in hopes of rolling his foe over. Hernandez follows the scrambles and grabs hold of a rear-naked choke, and this time it is Allen who turns the proper directly to break it up. Hernandez gets one hook in while Allen is on his knees, and he elbows Allen in the side of the head. Allen hangs onto the wrist to keep Hernandez from gaining a dominant position, and he shoots in for a takedown only to find Hernandez setting up an anaconda choke. Allen knows it is coming and turns to his back, permitting Hernandez to establish top position for the moment. Allen turns over voluntarily and keeps spinning, and Hernandez him until exploding around to take Hernandez’ back. Allen has his own hook in, and he attempts a brute force neck crank without bothering to fasting his hooks or the grip all the way. Hernandez grits his teeth and stands up, chucking Allen to his back and dropping down heavy strikes. Allen scrambles and gives up half guard on his back so as to not be in submission danger, but this opens him up to Hernandez’ right hand and elbow. A few more strikes come from Hernandez before the round concludes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez

Round 3
The fighters hug it out as the third round begins, and this time Allen punches instead of kicks to get going. Hernandez strikes back, and Allen claims he was poked in the eye while Hernandez states it was a closed fist. Beltran calls time and checks the replay, and when they determine it was indeed a punch, they resume the action. Hernandez surges right forward to grapple, and Allen pushes it off and drills Hernandez in the face with a left hook. Hernandez clutches his eye as he is suddenly in jeopardy, and he backs away. When Hernandez’ back hits the fence, he swings hard, and Allen dodges and attempts a standing submission. The two scramble and return to their feet, where Allen again clubs his man in the face to hurt him. Hernandez desperately pursues a takedown, and Allen deliberately lowers himself to one knee to take knees to the head out of the equation. When Hernandez sells out for a takedown, Allen keeps himself afloat and never truly goes down, although he returns to one knee down. Hernandez has his hands clasped around the waist, and he turns the corner and gets Allen down to his seat momentarily. Allen winces and returns to a knee, and Hernandez slips his arm beneath the chin for a second but is stopped from getting a choke. Hernandez keeps heavy on top of his opponent, not letting Allen get to his feet, and Allen appears frustrated and wants to fight instead of wrestle in this stalemate position. Hernandez has no plan on changing gears, and he snatches up a rear-naked choke and falls off the side. Allen uses two-on-one wrist control to free himself from the worst of it, and he smacks Hernandez and knocks his mouthpiece out. The two fall all over the place, possibly from fatigue or sweat, and Hernandez is the one who establishes top position raining down strikes. Allen backwards somersaults in a desperate attempt to get out, but Hernandez hangs onto him until the final buzzer. This could have used two more rounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez (29-28 Hernandez)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez (29-28 Hernandez)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez (29-28 Hernandez)

The Official Result
Anthony Hernandez def. Brendan Allen via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 16, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Angelo, a self-proclaimed 'fluffy underestimator', picks Anthony Hernandez for the first time. He credits Hernandez's incredible cardio as the key weapon that weaponizes his other skills, noting his win over Michel Pereira was wildly impressive. He thinks the pace will matter even in a three-round fight, and that Hernandez's work ethic makes the difference.

"I don't know if I've ever picked Fluffy to win a fight ever, but I am now."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 17, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Big Brady picks Anthony 'Fluffy' Hernandez, noting his relentless wrestling and scrambling pace that most middleweights can't keep up with. He thinks Brendan Allen may have early success and win the first round, but Hernandez will wear him down, take him down, and dominate the later rounds. He references Allen's poor performance against Imavov, where he was out-grappled, and says if that version of Allen shows up, Hernandez finishes him. He predicts Hernandez by decision.

by decision
"I think Hernandez is going to wear on Allen I think he's going to get him tired I think he's going to take him down rinse his repeat out scramble him end up on top getting into some dominant positions"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Connor picks Hernandez, agreeing that Allen's gas tank is a concern and that Hernandez's pressure will be too much. He notes that Allen improved a lot in the UFC and has submitted good grapplers, but Hernandez's style of constant scrambling and pace is a bad matchup. Connor also mentions that Hernandez's striking is terrible but his willingness to eat damage and keep pace makes it work.

"I think there's a real good shot for him to get this one back"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

The host believes Hernandez is clearly in his prime and will utilize his classic style: putting Allen through the ringer, pushing him against the cage, dragging him to the ground, and being too much. He predicts Hernandez wins on the scorecards.

"I think Hernandez is clearly in his prime I think we're going to see him utilize his classic Hernandez Style putting Allen through the ringer through the the spin cycle pushing him against the cage dragging him to the ground …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 21, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

The Guru picks Hernandez, citing his positional grappling dominance and better cardio compared to Allen. He notes Allen's tendency to lose position by chasing submissions, as seen in the Jacob Malkoun fight. He believes Hernandez is a better version of Malkoun—bigger, rangier, more durable—and will outgrapple Allen over three rounds. He also questions Allen's fight IQ.

"I'm going to go Anthony Hernandez over Brendan Allen I'm going to tell you why with a few key fights in Brendan Allen's career"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Zane picks Hernandez because he believes Hernandez's relentless scrambling and pace will overwhelm Allen, who gassed against Nassourdine Imavov. He notes that Allen's best path is to catch Hernandez in a submission, but Hernandez never accepts a bad position and keeps scrambling. Zane also points out that Allen's striking is poor and he will willingly fall into the clinch, playing into Hernandez's game.

"i'm picking hernandez but that's not to say that alan might not just hit one nice back take in round one and choke him out"
TKO (elbows) R5 2:22 · UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira · Oct 19, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Anthony Hernandez 0 152 of 212 71% 219 of 293 10 of 29 34% 0 0 15:42
Michel Pereira 0 24 of 53 45% 29 of 62 0 of 1 0% 1 1 0:56
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Anthony Hernandez 0 27 of 52 51% 30 of 55 1 of 8 12% 0 0 1:25
Michel Pereira 0 15 of 34 44% 17 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
2 Anthony Hernandez 0 30 of 47 63% 47 of 68 2 of 6 33% 0 0 3:18
Michel Pereira 0 2 of 7 28% 2 of 7 0 of 0 --- 1 1 0:35
3 Anthony Hernandez 0 44 of 55 80% 64 of 77 2 of 6 33% 0 0 4:17
Michel Pereira 0 3 of 8 37% 4 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Anthony Hernandez 0 29 of 35 82% 48 of 62 3 of 6 50% 0 0 4:35
Michel Pereira 0 3 of 3 100% 5 of 9 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
5 Anthony Hernandez 0 22 of 23 95% 30 of 31 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:07
Michel Pereira 0 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Anthony Hernandez 152 of 212 71% 125 of 182 22 of 24 5 of 6 43 of 81 12 of 14 97 of 117
Michel Pereira 24 of 53 45% 8 of 27 16 of 26 0 of 0 20 of 45 4 of 8 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Anthony Hernandez 27 of 52 51% 20 of 42 5 of 7 2 of 3 17 of 40 4 of 5 6 of 7
Michel Pereira 15 of 34 44% 7 of 19 8 of 15 0 of 0 12 of 28 3 of 6 0 of 0
2 Anthony Hernandez 30 of 47 63% 25 of 42 4 of 4 1 of 1 9 of 15 0 of 1 21 of 31
Michel Pereira 2 of 7 28% 0 of 4 2 of 3 0 of 0 2 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Anthony Hernandez 44 of 55 80% 31 of 42 11 of 11 2 of 2 8 of 15 4 of 4 32 of 36
Michel Pereira 3 of 8 37% 1 of 4 2 of 4 0 of 0 2 of 6 1 of 2 0 of 0
4 Anthony Hernandez 29 of 35 82% 28 of 34 1 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 6 3 of 3 21 of 26
Michel Pereira 3 of 3 100% 0 of 0 3 of 3 0 of 0 3 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Anthony Hernandez 22 of 23 95% 21 of 22 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 5 1 of 1 17 of 17
Michel Pereira 1 of 1 100% 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Anthony Hernandez vs. Michel Pereira
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Hernandez (-135), Pereira (+114)

Round 1
Much like last week, the UFC put on an event with an alright lineup on paper and what looks like an absolute thriller in the main attraction. At UFC Fight Night 244, Brandon Royval and Tatsuro Taira threw down in a “Fight of the Year” candidate, and the promotion is trotting out another matchup that could deliver bonkers action before it is said and done. Streaking middleweights go at it for five rounds to push to the next echelon of the weight class, and oddsmakers do not expect this one will go the distance. Winner of five straight with four stoppages, Hernandez (12-2, 1 NC; 6-2 UFC) keeps passing tests with flying colors, while high-flying Brazilian Pereira (31-11, 2 NC; 9-2 UFC) is a buzzsaw destroying anyone he meets at the new weight class. Referee Herb Dean draws the charge for the main attraction, and he brings the two together to touch gloves and seal the cage. It’s on with the show. Hernandez advances but is quickly met by a swarming Pereira, who swats at him with two jabs and a left hand. Hernandez slips out of the way, and when walking forward again, he is stabbed in the body with a powerful front kick that appears to hurt him. Pereira marches forward to continue working the body, and Hernandez grimaces and leans against the cage. Pereira tries to finish the job with a torrid salvo of strikes, and Hernandez toughs it out, bounces off the cage and wings a right hand to keep his man honest. Pereira backs off, kicks him in the ribs, and retreats. Hernandez marches the Brazilian down, slugging him to set up a takedown attempt. Hernandez reaches his foe with a right hand, and one of pieces of ear tape falls off. Hernandez spins with a wheel kick that glances off the guard, and his pressure makes Pereira retreat. Pereira gets pushed against the wall, turns about and comes out swinging. Hernandez has a spinning back kick land flush in close range, and he punches his way into a single-leg entry. Hernandez falls to his back as he tries to complete the takedown, and he stands back up before Pereira can make him pay for the attempt. Pereira checks a kick and digs a left to the liver, and he defends a shot with an effective sprawl and avoids a looping right. Pereira sets up a Thai clinch to knee his man repeatedly, and Hernandez punches his way out of it and backs Pereira up once more. Hernandez leans on Pereira against the fencing, and he surprises “Demolidor” with a spinning back elbow. Hernandez uses the close range to rip Pereira off his feet with a body lock and a trip, landing on top in a modified half guard. Hernandez sits and stands to land a bit of ground-and-pound, with the horn breaking them up.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez

Round 2
A fist bump leads to Hernandez jabbing and shooting in on the hips for a takedown. Pereira defends against it to break out of the attempt, and he pushes off and grazes Pereira’s eye with a swipe of his finger. Dean sternly warns Hernandez for the foul, and Pereira takes 30 seconds before he is ready to return. Hernandez reintroduces himself with a spinning back kick to the leg, and he punches high to shoot in low. Pereira sprawls successfully, getting pushed to the wall and turning his man about to escape. Pereira prepares for the takedown that will inevitably come by snatching hold of a guillotine choke as Hernandez shoots. Pereira uses the submission to briefly assume mount, and Hernandez worms his way out to claim top position. Hernandez opens up with ground-and-pound, smacking Pereira with his free left hand. “Fluffy” shuts down Pereira’s bucks and movements to get out, and he takes advantage of a moment to take Pereira’s back and set up an arm-triangle choke. The Brazilian wildly turns through the submission and fights back to his feet. Hernandez chases after him, grabbing hold of Pereira with a double and dumping him to the mat. Hernandez controls Pereira, imposing his weight on him while Pereira stands. When Pereira does get back up, Hernandez puts a hole on his morale by hitting a double. Pereira defends from a submission, sitting up to absorb punches, and Hernandez tries another guillotine. Pereira protects his neck once more, and Hernandez stands up and knees him in the chest. Hernandez follows a rolling, grounded Pereira with big right hands, and he opens up with elbows. The horn sounds while Hernandez is laying into him, and he helps Pereira up to his feet.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez

Round 3
There is a touch of gloves to get going, with Pereira on full defense mode thanks to his corner telling him to take the round off to recover. Hernandez leads off with a takedown shot, and he drags Pereira down from his side. The Brazilian bursts back to his feet, and Hernandez clips him with short but effective punches until Pereira circles away. Hernandez shoots and is stuffed, leading to Hernandez going deep on the hips with a double. When that fails, he pursues a body lock, and Pereira pushes him away and wants to set up a Thai clinch to knee Hernandez in the face. Hernandez uses that clinch to jam Pereira up instead, and he hits a double and climbs into half guard. Pereira is quick to turn to his side in an effort to escape, but Hernandez easily thwarts that and pounds on the Brazilian. Hernandez grinds with elbows, and he steps over to the side and right into mount. Pereira times the push off the hips to stop Hernandez from getting dominant position for long, so Hernandez drops down a hearty elbow on his jaw. Hernandez attacks an arm-triangle choke, and he allows Pereira to turn to his side so he can further lock it down. Pereira grits out the choke and is punched in the back of the head, and Hernandez adjusts his trajectory while Pereira returns to a knee. Hernandez elbows his man in the side repeatedly to further take wind out of his sails, kneeing the other side as Pereira is stuck clinging to Hernandez’ left wrist. Hernandez paints Pereira’s face with his fists until the horn sounds, and Pereira has somehow reached the championship rounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Hernandez
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-8 Hernandez
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-8 Hernandez

Round 4
The tired fighters clap hands to get going, and Hernandez wastes little time to shoot in for a takedown. Pereira remains upright, with Hernandez pushing him to the wire but not able to ground him. Pereira breaks free and times an uppercut, and he kicks the body and eats a right hand. Hernandez hits a takedown even with a knee landing on his jaw, and he begins to smother the Brazilian some more. Pereira leans to his side to not be flattened out in either way, and Hernandez measures him with elbows while smacking him with free right hands. Pereira turns over to his knees to stand back to his feet, and he celebrates a moral victory by stopping a subsequent trip attempt. Hernandez gingerly sets him down, and he uses his body weight to shove Pereira to his seat. Hernandez opens up with elbow after elbow, and he chains several punches together to force Pereira to turn over and put his head on the mat. Hernandez holds on from the side, finding one serious undercut before Pereira gets to a knee. Even totally wiped out, Pereira manages to get back to his feet once more. Hernandez pursues a double and plants Pereira flat on his back, taking to half guard and framing off to drill the Brazilian with hammerfists. Hernandez’ blows begin to get louder and heavier, and Dean watches on closely but is not ready to intervene just yet. Dean asks Pereira to fight back, and Pereira somehow wills himself back to his feet miraculously. Hernandez spins with an elbow, and Pereira is barely able to stand up but is throwing hands. Pereira shoots for a single, and Hernandez easily lowers him to the mat. The round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez

Round 5
The middleweights hug it out as they have gotten through 20 minutes of combat, and Hernandez wants nothing more than to drag the fight to his world. Pereira survives the first attempt, and hits his hands and knees on the second. Pereira wrenches his way upright despite a record number of takedown attempts at middleweight put on him. Hernandez goes for one more and digs deep to scoop Pereira off his feet and dump on him on his backside. Hernandez moves to half guard rather than side control so he can establish more control, and he sharpens his elbow and slashes it down like a horror movie villain to spilt Pereira’s eyebrow wide open. Blood is soon to flow, and he turns over to halt the bludgeoning. Dean calls for Pereira to fight back, and Hernandez seizes his moment, knowing that he does not need much more to get a stoppage. “Fluffy” lets his man have it with a final salvo of elbows, finishing the job and further extending his impressive win streak. Dean waves them off, and Pereira appears to still want to continue fighting as he doggedly clings to Hernandez’ leg until Dean lets him know the fight is over. This performance will likely hurl the Californian to new heights, and he admits he does not know the roster well enough to know a proper name to call out. Instead, he asks the UFC brass to give him a title eliminator, believing he needs one more win to get a crack at gold. There will be a wealth of options at his disposal, and most names in the top 10 are fresh matchups for him. When he takes on his next challenge, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.

The Official Result
Anthony Hernandez def. Michel Pereira R5 2:22 via TKO (Elbows)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 13, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Michel Pereira

Angelo picks Michel Pereira as an underdog, having bet on him at +135. He believes Pereira's athleticism, power, and grappling are too much for Anthony Hernandez, whose only path to victory is grappling. He thinks Pereira is the more dynamic and dangerous fighter, and that Hernandez cannot out-strike him. He notes Pereira's recent success at middleweight and dismisses cardio concerns, saying Pereira has shown he can maintain pace. He is confident Pereira wins.

bet on Pereira at +135
"Michelle P is the pick and I think we're going to Rattle off a couple of Underdog wins"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Big Brady picks Anthony Hernandez by third-round submission. He sees it as Pereira early, Hernandez late. Pereira has three quick wins but gasses; Hernandez has great cardio and grappling. If Hernandez survives the first five to seven minutes, he will take over, take Pereira down, and finish him in the third round. He mentions a good live bet spot.

third round submission, live bet
"I like Hernandez here probably a good live bet spot for sure um but yeah I like Hernandez to get it done I'll say third round submission for for Anthony Hernandez"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Connor picks Hernandez, comparing his style to a larger, more skilled Tristan Connelly who will make Pereira pay for every bad decision. He notes that Hernandez's pace and pressure grappling are exactly the kind of game that troubled Pereira in the past. However, he acknowledges that Hernandez might get knocked out early, as he has been hurt in many of his recent wins.

"I am very much inclined to pick Anthony Hernandez while also having to acknowledge that he might just get dusted"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Feb 21, 2026 (fight day)
Anthony Hernandez

Lucrative James believes Fluffy Hernandez will overwhelm Sean Strickland with constant forward pressure, takedown attempts, and volume. He notes that Strickland struggles when opponents don't let him establish his jab and one-two rhythm. James predicts Hernandez will win a decision by outworking Strickland over five rounds.

"I think Fluffy Hernandez has a lot of volume... he's going to walk forward, shoot takedowns, throw kicks, throw punches... I believe that is the way to offset Shawn's game entirely."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Pereira will be dangerous in the opening five minutes, but Hernandez has done a great job wearing opponents down, keeping them in the clinch, taking them down, and utilizing submission attempts. Hernandez will wear Pereira down and get a finish in the third or fourth round.

finish in round 3 or 4
"I think that Hernandez has done a great job in terms of finding ways to wear opponents down keep them in the clinch take them to the ground Matt return them utilize a ton of submission attempts but eventually wear …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 15, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Michel Pereira

The Guru picks Pereira despite acknowledging Hernandez's grappling skills. He believes Pereira's athleticism, power, and body work will be too much, predicting an early finish by TKO or submission. He notes Pereira has finished all his middleweight opponents quickly and envisions Pereira stuffing a takedown, landing knees to the body, and getting a guillotine or rear-naked choke.

early finish, TKO or submission, body work
"I'm going to go Mel P I think he's two athletic too strong too powerful"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Michel Pereira

Zane picks Pereira because of his insane speed at middleweight, which he believes Hernandez will not be ready for. He acknowledges that if Hernandez survives the early onslaught, he will likely take over with pressure and grappling, but Zane trusts Pereira's athleticism to get the job done early. He notes that Pereira has learned to pace himself after the Tristan Connelly loss, but still has that loss in him.

Pereira opened at +132, now +115; Hernandez opened -147, now -128
"I am gonna take Pereira cuz he's just so goddamn fast at middleweight"
WIN vs Roman Kopylov
Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 3:23 · UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · Feb 17, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Anthony Hernandez 0 34 of 77 44% 39 of 82 3 of 14 21% 2 0 4:05
Roman Kopylov 0 35 of 57 61% 41 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Anthony Hernandez 0 20 of 42 47% 23 of 45 1 of 11 9% 0 0 2:05
Roman Kopylov 0 16 of 29 55% 21 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Anthony Hernandez 0 14 of 35 40% 16 of 37 2 of 3 66% 2 0 2:00
Roman Kopylov 0 19 of 28 67% 20 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Anthony Hernandez 34 of 77 44% 28 of 68 4 of 6 2 of 3 24 of 65 8 of 10 2 of 2
Roman Kopylov 35 of 57 61% 21 of 43 8 of 8 6 of 6 34 of 56 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Anthony Hernandez 20 of 42 47% 16 of 35 3 of 5 1 of 2 13 of 35 6 of 6 1 of 1
Roman Kopylov 16 of 29 55% 8 of 21 3 of 3 5 of 5 16 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Anthony Hernandez 14 of 35 40% 12 of 33 1 of 1 1 of 1 11 of 30 2 of 4 1 of 1
Roman Kopylov 19 of 28 67% 13 of 22 5 of 5 1 of 1 18 of 27 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Anthony Hernandez vs. Roman Kopylov
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Hernandez (-205), Kopylov (+170)

Round 1
To kick off the main card, two middleweights that struggled early on in their UFC tenures only to figure things out as they went along will come crashing into one another. One of these four-fight win streaks will come to a grinding halt, whether it is wild submission specialist Hernandez (11-2, 1 NC; 5-2 UFC) or knockout artist Kopylov (12-2, 4-2 UFC). In their last eight outings, the two men have combined for seven finishes, so referee Jason Herzog needs to be on his A-game from here on out. There is a show of respect as the two decide to touch gloves before engaging. The two toss leg kicks at one another to immediately engage, and Hernandez dives forward after a low leg only to get stood up by the Russian. Hernandez threatens with another takedown to keep Kopylov guessing, and when that comes up short, Kopylov kicks him in the lead calf. Kopylov intercepts Hernandez coming in with a straight left hand, and he lands a solid body kick that draws a wince out of “Fluffy.” Kopylov just misses with a massive head kick, and Hernandez continues to put his foot on the gas even if he is throwing far less volume. Kopylov scores another body kick, and Hernandez races at him to get hold of a takedown, but that is also rebuffed. Kopylov bounces off and drives a one-two on the chin, and Hernandez tries to fires back and reaches him with an overhand right. Kopylov gets off a low kick and a right hand over the top, and his body kick that follows lands with emphasis. Kopylov remains busy even when on his bike, and he stops only to defend a single from “Fluffy.” Hernandez drags his man to one knee, but he cannot keep him there. Kopylov jabs until he is backed off from a right hand, and Hernandez gives chase and scores a right hook before diving after a double. Kopylov defends against it, and Hernandez changes to a single as he pushes Kopylov into the wall. Kopylov keeps his balance despite the numerous attempts, and he bounces off the fence to stay on his feet when Hernandez redoubles his effort. Hernandez doggedly looks for takedowns, and when stood up, he rips an elbow before shooting low again. Kopylov thwarts him, so Hernandez changes his strategy to just try to toss him down with a body lock. Kopylov spins all the way around but does not go down, and Hernandez knees him high and elbows him a few times before one final shot at the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov

Round 2
The middleweights touch ‘em up to start off the second stanza, and Hernandez reaches out early with a swatting right hand. Kopylov retaliates with a thudding kick to the ribs, and Hernandez darts forward to jab the body. Kopylov digs a left to the body, and Hernandez grins but might have been hurt with it. Hernandez continues to pour on his pressure and offense, walking through shots and allowing himself to get hit so he can strike back. Kopylov stuns him with a body kick, and he lands a few additional shots, fires off a head kick that bounces off the guard and scores one more kick to the ribs. Hernandez sticks his tongue out, and he wades forward for a takedown. Kopylov plants his shin on Hernandez’ belly while Hernandez is shooting, and Hernandez partially gets Kopylov down but cannot quite ground him completely. Hernandez gets stonewalled, and he threatens with a guillotine before dropping down to scoop up the Russian’s legs and plat him on the mat. Hernandez instantly starts fishing for a neck crank, with a rear-naked choke grip not in play. Kopylov defends the hands, but Hernandez wraps both hooks around the waist and squeezes with all his might and pulls back. Kopylov is in grave danger, and he toughs it out and signals a thumbs-up to show he is still in it. Hernandez sees this gesture and adjusts his grip to the other side, where his forearm slices beneath the chin. This time, it is done, and Hernandez knows it as he grins to the camera and nods. Hernandez squeezes and waits, and Kopylov thinks about going out on his shield but taps out instead. An elated Hernandez points to his corner as soon as he releases the grip, and he chucks his mouthpiece in a celebratory gesture after a big victory.

The Official Result
Anthony Hernandez def. Roman Kopylov R2 3:23 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 11, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Roman Kopylov

Angelo picks Roman Kopylov as a dog, citing his superior striking and improved takedown defense. He notes Hernandez averages seven takedowns per fight but struggles to hold people down. He expects Kopylov to make Hernandez pay for every entry and potentially finish. He plans a small bet on Kopylov and may bet the under if a 2.5 round line is available.

under 2.5 rounds (potential)
"I'm going to pick Roman kopilov he's got good takedown defense hopefully his get up game has improved a little bit"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Big Brady picks Anthony Hernandez to win by second-round submission, specifically an anaconda choke. He highlights Hernandez's incredible wrestling (6.79 takedowns per 15 minutes) and cardio, and notes Kopylov's poor ground game as seen in losses to du Plessis and Roberson. He warns that Hernandez must avoid Kopylov's body attacks, which have hurt him in the past, but expects him to wrestle early and break Kopylov.

Hernandez by submission, round 2, anaconda choke
"give me Anthony Hernandez to win this fight by second round submission and I think it's going to be an anaconda"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Roman Kopylov

Cody leans toward Kopylov as a dog, noting his technical striking and improved takedown defense after training in Dagestan. He questions whether Hernandez can get takedowns early and often. He sees value in Kopylov at plus money, but admits he's not fully confident pre-fight.

"I guess I would lean towards a dog shot on kopov but but yeah it really comes down it's like is Fluffy going to be able to get those takedowns early and often and I wouldn't be surprised if he …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lock picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Daniel Vreeland is extremely confident in Anthony Hernandez, calling it a slam dunk. He highlights Hernandez's relentless pressure wrestling, cardio, and submission skills, noting he has taken down and submitted high-level grapplers like Rodolfo Vieira. He believes Kopylov's takedown defense is untested and that he gasses, while Hernandez will wear him down and finish him. He thinks the true price should be -350 to -400.

"I think this is a slam dunk... I think that the true price of this fight might sound crazy, I think fluffy Hernandez should be a minus 350 minus 400 favorite here."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Feb 15, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Hernandez has a grapple-heavy, pressure style that breaks opponents. Kopylov is dangerous with combinations but Hernandez will push him to the cage, chain wrestle, and eventually break him. Expects a third-round submission.

"I'll have to lean Hernandez here getting a third round submission Victory"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Paul picks Hernandez, comparing him to Jacob Malkoun for his relentless wrestling and cardio. He notes Hernandez's ability to chain-wrestle and submit opponents, as seen against Rodolfo Vieira and Josh Fremd. He questions Kopylov's takedown defense against a high-volume wrestler, noting that Kopylov has gassed in fights. He believes Hernandez will grind on Kopylov and eventually get a finish or decision.

"for me the pck is Fluffy Hernandez all right."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

The MMA Guru picks Anthony Hernandez, citing his underrated grappling and pace. He notes Kopylov was outgrappled by Cole Roberson and had moments of struggle against lesser opponents. He believes Hernandez's cardio and wrestling will overwhelm Kopylov, predicting a finish in round two or three. He also mentions Kopylov's body is open for body shots.

"I'm going Anthony Hernandez over Roman Kopylov... I think he'll be able to outgrapple him and I love his grappling."
TKO (elbows and punches) R3 1:01 · UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill · May 20, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Anthony Hernandez 0 30 of 51 58% 33 of 55 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:41
Edmen Shahbazyan 0 63 of 88 71% 77 of 105 6 of 15 40% 4 0 7:11
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Anthony Hernandez 0 25 of 42 59% 27 of 45 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:23
Edmen Shahbazyan 0 15 of 27 55% 17 of 30 2 of 8 25% 2 0 2:29
2 Anthony Hernandez 0 4 of 8 50% 5 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:18
Edmen Shahbazyan 0 28 of 39 71% 39 of 50 3 of 6 50% 2 0 3:54
3 Anthony Hernandez 0 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Edmen Shahbazyan 0 20 of 22 90% 21 of 25 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:48
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Anthony Hernandez 30 of 51 58% 21 of 42 8 of 8 1 of 1 17 of 35 11 of 14 2 of 2
Edmen Shahbazyan 63 of 88 71% 55 of 79 4 of 4 4 of 5 15 of 33 8 of 8 40 of 47
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Anthony Hernandez 25 of 42 59% 17 of 34 7 of 7 1 of 1 13 of 27 10 of 13 2 of 2
Edmen Shahbazyan 15 of 27 55% 13 of 24 1 of 1 1 of 2 7 of 19 6 of 6 2 of 2
2 Anthony Hernandez 4 of 8 50% 4 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 7 1 of 1 0 of 0
Edmen Shahbazyan 28 of 39 71% 22 of 33 3 of 3 3 of 3 7 of 13 2 of 2 19 of 24
3 Anthony Hernandez 1 of 1 100% 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Edmen Shahbazyan 20 of 22 90% 20 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 19 of 21
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Anthony Hernandez vs. Edmen Shahbazyan
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Hernandez (-240), Shahbazyan (+200)

Round 1
It’s an all-California middleweight rumble in the co-main attraction, as the resurgent Shahbazyan (12-3, 5-3 UFC) looks to halt the impressive but brief win streak of “Fluffy” Hernandez (10-2, 1 NC; 4-2 UFC). Finish rates of 92% for the former and 80% for the latter mean that while the judges might not be needed for the bout’s duration, referee Herb Dean very well may be required. Before the action begins, the two 185ers try to touch gloves and miss, so they abandon it. Shahbazyan lands the first blow with a right hand, and Hernandez responds with a takedown entry. Shahbazyan loads up with a right hand to hurt “Fluffy” and bends him over, and Hernandez backs away to the wall as Shahbazyan unloads with a series of punches. Hernandez backs away, shells up, sticks his tongue out and counters. Hernandez then goes for a takedown, and he gets tossed out of the way and tagged with a serious jab from his foe. Shahbazyan steps in with a one-two that knocks Hernandez back, and Hernandez rolls with it to take away the worst of it but he cannot buy a takedown at this point. Shahbazyan counters an entry with a knee and stands his foe up when trying, and he scores an elbow and looks to counter with a takedown of his own. Hernandez jumps guard with a guillotine choke, and he bails on it to stand when it is not close. When both are up again, Shahbazyan kicks his foe in the chest, and Hernandez gives chase and drills him the face with a right hand. Hernandez jams his man into the wire, where he looks for a body lock takedown or a throw. Hernandez chains his attempt to a single, and he runs his foe from one side of the cage to the other but cannot ground him. Shahbazyan defends well and plants a knee on the chest, and Hernandez slashes an elbow over the top to cut open the left eyebrow. Hernandez shoots and finds himself in guillotine choke danger, and he turns all the way through it to get out. Shahbazyan rolls to his back to go after an armbar, and he loses the grip and winds up in choke danger on his own side. Hernandez looks for a modified arm-in guillotine choke, and he lets it go so that he can take the fight down on his own terms. Shahbazyan works his way up, and he eats a few elbows and succumbs to a double with 20 seconds to spare. Hernandez sets up a rear-naked choke while his foe is seated, and Shahbazyan stands up and takes a knee on the chin before the horn sounds to end the wild frame.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez

Round 2
The middleweights meet in the center of the cage, and Hernandez lands a punch, a kick and shoots in for a takedown. When Shahbazyan turns it around on him, Hernandez goes for his unorthodox guillotine again. Shahbazyan turns through to get to a knee, and he stands up and pushes off with a right hand. The two trade jabs, their pace slowed momentarily, and Hernandez chains a jab into an elbow. When Shahbazyan backs into the cage, Hernandez rings his bell with a straight right hand. This leads to a tie-up, and both men fight to get a takedown and drop to a knee. Shahbazyan drops down for a single, and Hernandez dumps him on his face, turns the corner and hits a double. Hernandez lets him sit up so he can punch him in the face, and he stays pinned to a fatiguing Shahbazyan and looks to pick him up and throw him down again. Shahbazyan stands up and gets kneed in the chest, and he is fading fast as Hernandez is on him, smothering him or landing punches. Hernandez grabs hold of a guillotine choke, and he flips his foe over to full mount. When Shahbazyan scrambles, Hernandez transitions the choke to another side, and then to an anaconda. Shahbazyan escapes them all, winding up on top, but Hernandez is on him with another guillotine in the blink of an eye. Hernandez takes his back and looks for a choke, all while working Shahbazyan over with elbows when he can find one. Hernandez goes for another one of his strange guillotine chokes, and he lets it go to take the back and fish for a rear-naked choke. Shahbazyan turns and defends properly, but he cannot get Hernandez off of him. Hernandez sits up with fierce punches and elbows, and he thumps Shahbazyan with elbows to the head, body and thigh until the horn blares.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Hernandez
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Hernandez

Round 3
The fighters have reached the last round, and Hernandez reintroduces himself to his foe with a head kick. It does not take more than about 12 seconds for Hernandez to hit a takedown, and he sits up and starts belting the spent Shahbazyan with punches and elbows.
The elbows from “Fluffy” have opened up another cut on the face of his opponent, and he sits up and keeps beating on his doomed adversary. Hernandez, seeing that he has Shahbazyan at the end of his rope, slashes down with elbows and adds in few punches to seal the deal. Dean, seeing that Shahbazyan is completely cooked, intervenes for a merciful stoppage
, saving the young fighter from any further punishment. “Fluffy” made a seriously statement to the rest of the middleweight division with this gutsy performance, and he might have a number next to his name next week, now celebrating four stoppages in row.

The Official Result
Alexander Hernandez def. Edmen Shahbazyan R3 1:01 via TKO (Elbows and Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 14, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Angelo picks Anthony Hernandez confidently, citing his superior grappling and high takedown volume. He notes that while Hernandez's control could be better, Shahbazyan struggles to get back to his feet when taken down. He considers Hernandez safe for parlays.

"fluffy is the pick and is potentially safe for parlays so I'm pretty confident in Anthony Hernandez to get this done"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 12, 2023 (8 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Big Brady picks Anthony Hernandez to submit Edmen Shahbazyan in the second round. He calls it a terrible matchup for Shahbazyan, who has historically faded in later rounds. Hernandez is known for his cardio, pressure, and wrestling, and should break Shahbazyan. He notes Shahbazyan is dangerous early but expects Hernandez to weather the storm and finish him in the second.

submission in round 2
"give me Hernandez to break Emma Shabazz and I'll take Hernandez second round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 18, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Cody highlights Hernandez's relentless wrestling and cardio, noting he averaged 8 takedowns in his last two fights. He contrasts Shahbazyan's tendency to fade after the first round and poor takedown defense. He expects Hernandez to wear Shahbazyan down with chain wrestling and secure a late finish or dominant decision.

"I have to go with the favorite here with Hernandez and I'm gonna have to trust him a little bit this week."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked May 18, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Edmen Shahbazyan

Connor picks Shahbazyan, citing his much cleaner striking and the potential to finish Hernandez early. He acknowledges the risk of Hernandez's pace but believes Shahbazyan's improved camp (ditching Tiverdian, sparring with Sean Strickland, training at Xtreme Couture) and his composed performance against Lungiambula are good signs. He thinks Shahbazyan could easily knock Hernandez out or tune him up, and that Hernandez's wide-open striking leaves opportunities for Shahbazyan to land clean shots.

Shahbazyan opened at +264, currently +196; Hernandez opened at -313, currently -225.
"I'm picking Shahbazyan. I just think he's so much more a dynamic threat that he could just as easily crush Hernandez very much like Kevin Holland did."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 18, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Daniel Levi confidently picks Anthony 'Fluffy' Hernandez. He highlights Hernandez's relentless takedown game, noting he landed 16 takedowns in his last two fights (8/11 vs Josh Fremd, 8/14 vs Marc-André Barriault). He believes Hernandez will survive Shahbazyan's dangerous first round and then break him with pressure and grappling, as Shahbazyan has historically faded past the first round. Levi acknowledges Hernandez's durability concerns (body shots) but thinks his wrestling and cardio will be the difference.

"I'm gonna go with Anthony fluffy Hernandez to defeat Edmund shabazian"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 15, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

The host is very confident in Anthony Hernandez, calling it a smash spot. He believes Hernandez's relentless forward pressure, cardio, and grappling will drown Shahbazyan, who has cardio issues. He predicts a submission in round two, noting that if Shahbazyan doesn't get an early KO, Hernandez will take over.

round two by submission
"I love Hernandez in the spot... I feel like stylistically if he can evade that big punch punching power early he's gonna drown shabazzian and finish him later on in this matchup no doubt about it"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 18, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Paul agrees, citing Hernandez's improved pace and cardio, and the stylistic advantage of his wrestling against Shahbazyan's suspect takedown defense. He notes that Shahbazyan's cardio issues are likely to be exploited, leading to Hernandez dominating later rounds.

"it's Hernandez for me as well."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 16, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

The MMA Guru picks Anthony Hernandez, calling him a style designed to beat Edmen Shahbazyan. He highlights Hernandez's pace-pushing wrestling and scrambles, which he believes will get into Shahbazyan's head. He notes Shahbazyan's demons may creep in as the fight goes on, and that Hernandez is a nightmare matchup. He acknowledges a chance Shahbazyan wins by first-round TKO but expects Hernandez to overcome early danger and win.

"I'm going with Anthony Hernandez ... he's sort of like the new Pace pushing wrestler on the Block in that division"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 18, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Zane picks Hernandez because he believes Shahbazyan's historical issues with pace and grappling pressure will resurface. He notes that Hernandez has one of the best gas tanks and pushes a relentless pace, which is exactly the kind of problem Shahbazyan has struggled with. Even with Shahbazyan's improved camp and confidence from his last win, Zane needs to see more than a win over Dalcha Lungiambula to trust him against a pressure fighter like Hernandez.

Shahbazyan opened at +264, currently +196; Hernandez opened at -313, currently -225.
"I'm picking Hernandez here. I just think this seems like the exact kind of problem that Shahbazyan has had so often."
Technical Submission (arm-triangle choke) R3 1:53 · UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Song · Sep 17, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Anthony Hernandez 0 39 of 60 65% 58 of 84 8 of 14 57% 2 0 8:45
Marc-André Barriault 0 25 of 53 47% 34 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:25
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Anthony Hernandez 0 19 of 34 55% 25 of 42 3 of 8 37% 0 0 3:04
Marc-André Barriault 0 13 of 29 44% 19 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:25
2 Anthony Hernandez 0 18 of 23 78% 31 of 39 2 of 2 100% 1 0 4:06
Marc-André Barriault 0 10 of 20 50% 13 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Anthony Hernandez 0 2 of 3 66% 2 of 3 3 of 4 75% 1 0 1:35
Marc-André Barriault 0 2 of 4 50% 2 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Anthony Hernandez 39 of 60 65% 31 of 52 8 of 8 0 of 0 18 of 35 8 of 12 13 of 13
Marc-André Barriault 25 of 53 47% 16 of 44 9 of 9 0 of 0 15 of 42 10 of 11 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Anthony Hernandez 19 of 34 55% 15 of 30 4 of 4 0 of 0 11 of 23 5 of 8 3 of 3
Marc-André Barriault 13 of 29 44% 8 of 24 5 of 5 0 of 0 8 of 24 5 of 5 0 of 0
2 Anthony Hernandez 18 of 23 78% 15 of 20 3 of 3 0 of 0 5 of 9 3 of 4 10 of 10
Marc-André Barriault 10 of 20 50% 7 of 17 3 of 3 0 of 0 6 of 15 4 of 5 0 of 0
3 Anthony Hernandez 2 of 3 66% 1 of 2 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marc-André Barriault 2 of 4 50% 1 of 3 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 3 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Angelo picks Hernandez because he is a superior grappler who should get takedowns against Barriault, who has been taken down by lesser grapplers. He notes that Barriault is the better striker, so Hernandez must be careful on the feet. Angelo believes Hernandez's path is clear: takedowns and control.

"i like fluffy to get the takedowns to get the win but he's definitely gonna need to be careful on his feet"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 13, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Big Brady picks Anthony Hernandez to win by decision. He highlights Hernandez's relentless wrestling (5.39 takedowns per 15 minutes with 70% accuracy) and cardio. Brady notes that Barriault has poor takedown defense but a good get-up game, so Hernandez may not hold him down for long. However, Brady believes Hernandez's pace and pressure will wear down Barriault, and he expects Hernandez to wrestle his way to a decision victory. He also mentions that the striking should be competitive, with a slight edge to Barriault.

decision
"give me fluffy hernandez to win give me fluffy hernandez to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Cody thinks Hernandez's relentless wrestling and cardio will overwhelm Barriault. He notes Barriault's recent losses and that he was knocked out by Chidi Njokuani. Cody expects Hernandez to grind out a decision or possibly get a submission.

Hernandez by submission +300
"i feel like hernandez just get on him like a dog on a bone wrestle him to the ground be relentless press him up against the cage tire him out"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Marc-André Barriault

Daniel Levi picks Marc-André Barriault at plus 155 odds, placing one unit. He likes Barriault's move to Sanford MMA, improved takedown defense, and body attack potential against Hernandez, who has shown vulnerability to body shots. He thinks Barriault's output and cardio can carry him in a close fight, but acknowledges Hernandez's submission threat and grinding style. He sees value in the underdog.

Bet one unit on Marc-André Barriault moneyline at +155
"I took andre barrio plus 155 i can't say i'm super confident but what i can say is that i think it has the potential to be a very very close fight"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Jacob is all-in on Hernandez, noting that Barriault's takedown defense is poor and that Hernandez is a better wrestler than Jordan Wright, who was about to dominate Barriault before getting caught in a guillotine. Jacob believes Hernandez will not make that mistake and will dominate the wrestling. He thinks the -174 odds are good value.

"i'm all in on anthony hernandez and i think it's a pretty good value too"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 16, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Hernandez will drown Barriault with his wrestling and pace, similar to a poor man's Cain Velasquez. Barriault is not a big finisher and Hernandez's durability is the only question mark. If Hernandez stays conscious, he will win via takedowns and pressure. Barriault's heavy strikes will be countered with level changes. Hernandez by decision at +200 is a good spot.

Hernandez by decision at +200
"Anthony Hernandez will drown him with that wrestling he'll drown him with that pace and I think that even the big shots that are coming coming back from the Barrio side will be countered with level changes and takedowns"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Paul leans Hernandez, noting Barriault's takedown defense issues. He thinks Hernandez can wrestle and potentially submit him. He mentions the prize picks line of 3 takedowns for Hernandez and thinks that's achievable.

"fluffy should be able to just at least match barrio's pace if it's on the feet"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 13, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

The MMA Guru picks Anthony Hernandez by decision. He is impressed by Hernandez's pace and grappling, especially after his win over Josh Fremd. He thinks Barriault relies on outpacing opponents but won't be able to outpace Hernandez. He notes Barriault has been KO'd by Chidi Njokuani and struggled against durable fighters. He expects Hernandez to take over in later rounds with heavy grappling and improved striking, winning a close 29-28 decision.

"i'm gonna go anthony hernandez decision win based on the last two rounds"
Gregory Rodrigues - Fight History
KO R1 1:47 · UFC 326 · Mar 07, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Gregory Rodrigues 1 2 of 6 33% 2 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Brunno Ferreira 0 2 of 5 40% 2 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Gregory Rodrigues 1 2 of 6 33% 2 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Brunno Ferreira 0 2 of 5 40% 2 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Gregory Rodrigues 2 of 6 33% 1 of 4 1 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Brunno Ferreira 2 of 5 40% 1 of 2 0 of 1 1 of 2 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Gregory Rodrigues 2 of 6 33% 1 of 4 1 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Brunno Ferreira 2 of 5 40% 1 of 2 0 of 1 1 of 2 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2026 (27 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

Angelo notes that both fighters are similar with heavy hands and poor cardio, but Gregory is larger and has better fight IQ. He expects Gregory to wrestle early to avoid another knockout, as Bruno knocked him out in their first fight when Gregory was ill-prepared. He believes Gregory will slow the pace and win on the scorecards.

over 1.5 rounds
"I think Gregory is going to keep this pace slow, stay on the outside... I actually think this could be a very interesting fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

Big Brady picks Gregory Rodrigues over Brunno Ferreira in a rematch. He notes Ferreira knocked out Rodrigues in the first fight, but Rodrigues has elite jiu-jitsu that he underutilizes. Brady believes if Rodrigues fights smart, mixes in takedowns, and uses his grappling, he can submit Ferreira, who gassed badly against Abus Magomedov. He predicts a second-round submission, warning that if Rodrigues stands and bangs, he could get knocked out again.

Rodrigues by second round submission
"Give me Gregory Rodriguez to win this fight. I'll take him to win this fight by second round submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 4, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Brunno Ferreira

Cody also picks Ferreira, highlighting Rodrigues' defensive flaws and tendency to gas. He notes Ferreira's speed and power, and that Rodrigues has been knocked out before. He expects Ferreira to land a big shot and finish.

"I got a slight dog play here on Bruno Ferrer."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Mar 6, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

Connor picks Rodrigues despite the first loss, noting that Rodrigues was styling on Ferreira before getting caught. He believes Rodrigues's improved grappling and willingness to test Ferreira's submission defense will be key. However, he acknowledges that Ferreira's one-punch power and Rodrigues's tendency to fade late make this a risky pick. Connor sees it as a well-matched rematch where either outcome is possible.

Odds: Ferreira opened at +130, now +145; Rodrigues opened at -150, now -170.
"I am going to pick Gregory Rodriguez, even despite the first loss. He should absolutely style on Bruno Fajeta again, but it's middleweight. So he might just get clocked again."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Mar 3, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Brunno Ferreira

Daniel Vreeland picks Brunno Ferreira as a plus-170 underdog, believing the odds should be closer. He notes that Ferreira knocked out Rodrigues in their first fight and has power that can end the fight early. Vreeland acknowledges both fighters have cardio issues and one-shot power, but he likes the value on Ferreira.

"Give me Bruno Ferrer to come out here and uh make history once again and get this upset."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Mar 1, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Brunno Ferreira

James picks Brunno Ferreira as the value side, noting that Ferreira already knocked out Rodrigues in their first fight and has the power to do it again. He highlights Rodrigues' poor chin and tendency to get hit, while Ferreira's leaping left hook is a dangerous weapon. James admits he is not confident but cannot trust Rodrigues at minus-200 odds due to his chin issues. He expects Ferreira to win by KO, likely early.

"I'm going to ultimately pick Bruno Ferrer just because I just feel like, you know, underdog price, pretty big underdog price. He's already knocked him out once."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 3, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

Rodrigues has a height and reach advantage and will play it safe early before finding a knockout as Ferreira slows. He learned from the first fight and should be more assertive. The fight finishes inside the distance. Waiting for a better line is advised.

Rodrigues by knockout; fight inside distance
"I think this fight finishes inside the distance. I think wins, but I would think twice in terms of taking him at Chalk."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 4, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Brunno Ferreira

Paul picks Ferreira as a dog, citing Rodrigues' durability issues and poor head movement. He notes Ferreira's speed and power, and that he already knocked out Rodrigues. He sees value at plus money and expects a knockout.

"It's dog or pass here for me."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Brunno Ferreira

The MMA Guru picks Brunno Ferreira, citing his previous KO win over Rodrigues. He believes Ferreira's power and finishing ability will be too much, and that Rodrigues is chinny. He predicts a KO win, possibly in a scrappy fight.

KO victory
"Bruno Fea KO victory."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Mar 6, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

Zane picks Rodrigues, echoing Connor's reasoning. He notes that Rodrigues has become more willing to grapple and can use ground-and-pound to finish. Zane points out that Ferreira's game is limited to wild overhands and sacrificial submissions, and Rodrigues should be able to avoid the big shot if he fights smart. However, he admits that Ferreira's power makes it a dangerous fight.

Odds: Ferreira +145, Rodrigues -170.
"I am going to pick Gregory Rodriguez, even despite the first loss."
WIN vs Roman Kopylov
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 322 · Nov 15, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Roman Kopylov 0 52 of 105 49% 54 of 109 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:35
Gregory Rodrigues 0 90 of 173 52% 91 of 174 0 of 4 0% 1 0 0:24
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Roman Kopylov 0 9 of 16 56% 11 of 19 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:31
Gregory Rodrigues 0 20 of 35 57% 20 of 35 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Roman Kopylov 0 23 of 36 63% 23 of 37 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:04
Gregory Rodrigues 0 37 of 70 52% 38 of 71 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:24
3 Roman Kopylov 0 20 of 53 37% 20 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Gregory Rodrigues 0 33 of 68 48% 33 of 68 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Roman Kopylov 52 of 105 49% 35 of 80 9 of 16 8 of 9 51 of 103 1 of 1 0 of 1
Gregory Rodrigues 90 of 173 52% 59 of 133 28 of 37 3 of 3 84 of 164 6 of 9 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Roman Kopylov 9 of 16 56% 2 of 5 2 of 6 5 of 5 9 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 1
Gregory Rodrigues 20 of 35 57% 12 of 25 7 of 9 1 of 1 19 of 34 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Roman Kopylov 23 of 36 63% 20 of 32 3 of 4 0 of 0 22 of 35 1 of 1 0 of 0
Gregory Rodrigues 37 of 70 52% 26 of 55 10 of 14 1 of 1 32 of 62 5 of 8 0 of 0
3 Roman Kopylov 20 of 53 37% 13 of 43 4 of 6 3 of 4 20 of 53 0 of 0 0 of 0
Gregory Rodrigues 33 of 68 48% 21 of 53 11 of 14 1 of 1 33 of 68 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Roman Kopylov vs. Gregory Rodrigues
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Rodrigues (-166), Kopylov (+140)

Round 1
Marc Goddard is the referee. Rodrigues probes with a right to the body. The Brazilian counters a kick with a crisp straight right. Another straight right splits the guard of Kopylov. Rodrigues follows a right hand with a hard body kick. Rodrigues continues to fire off his right hand and now he tries a takedown, which Kopylov defends. Kopylov with a straight left to the body, his first meaningful offense of the fight. Rodrigues with a hard body kick and then a right to the body as well. Every punch from Rodrigues is taking effect so far. Kopylov attacks the lead leg and Rodrigues answers with an inside leg kick. Rodrigues just misses a head kick. The Brazilian steps in with a knee to the body and he shoots for a takedown. Kopylov reverses it with a hip toss. He stands over Rodrigues as time ticks down, but he doesn’t land anything of note before the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rodrigues
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rodrigues
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rodrigues

Round 2
Rodrigues opens with a 1-2. Kopylov lands a left, but Rodrigues answers. They go to the ground and Kopylov scrambles out of a leg lock. Rodrigues shoots again against the fence, but Kopylov shoves him away. Rodrigues backs up Kopylov with a knee to the body. Kopylov sticks a jab. Rodrigues with a jab of his own. Rodrigues stalks his opponent, drawing mbig movements with feints. Rodrigues with a solid jab. Kopylov catches a kick and fires off a series of right hands before releasing the limb. Rodrigues moves in behind a right hand. Rodrigues marches forward, throwing straight punches, sometimes mixing in body shots. Kopylov with a left to the body. Rodrigues follows a knee with a series of hard right hands. “Robocop” keeps the pressure on as Kopylov remains on his bike. Rodrigues lands a jab followed by a right to the body. Kopylov remains on the defensive. Rodrigues lands a body kick. Kopylov catches it and shoves his foe down. A right by Rodrigues makes Kopylov stumble. Rodrigues stalks the Russian, landing heavy blows along the way. Kopylov unleashes a quick head kick, but it can’t quite find the mark. They clinch late in the round. Rodrigues lands a knee and misses a spinning attack as time expires.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rodrigues
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rodrigues
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rodrigues

Round 3
Rodrigues pumps his jab. Kopylov probes with a leg kick. Another jab lands for the Brazilian. Kopylov flicks out a jab but eats a right hand. Kopylov leaps in with a left that briefly buckles Rodrigues. Rodrigues recovers quickly, but that was Kopylov’s best attack so far. Rodrigues goes back to the well with a powerful 1-2. “Robocop” follows up with a right to the body, then a high kick that slams off Kopylov’s arm. Kopylov presses forward and lands a left to the body. Kopylov is on the attack, and he leaps in with another left. Rodrigues fires a right to the body. They trade on the inside and both men land. Rodrigues chops away with low kicks. Rodrigues stays busy with 1-2s, but Kopylov with another rapid left hand that finds the mark. Rodrigues continues to attack the body with his right hand while also throwing 1-2s upstairs. Kopylov is still hunting for that left hand. Kopylov fires another head kick, but Rodrigues blocks it. A quick right hand finds the mark for the Russian. Kopylov can’t get through with a head kick but ends the contest with a spinning backfist.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov (29-28 Rodrigues)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov (29-28 Rodrigues)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov (29-28 Rodrigues)

The Official Result
Gregory Rodrigues def. Roman Kopylov via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28) R3 5:00
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

Angelo picks Gregory Rodrigues, citing his well-rounded skills, power, and BJJ black belt. He believes Rodrigues will use takedowns to control the fight, similar to his win over Christian Leroy Duncan. He notes Roman Kopylov is a good kickboxer but vulnerable to grappling. Angelo's only concern is Rodrigues' tendency to bleed easily.

"I think Gregory Rodriguez makes this a very tricky fight for Roman Copilov... I do think Gregory wins this fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

Big Brady picks Gregory Rodrigues, highlighting his elite jiu-jitsu and ground game, which he believes will be too much for Roman Kopylov, who has poor grappling. He notes Kopylov was submitted by a kickboxer and dominated on the ground by Albert Duraev. However, Brady worries about Rodrigues's tendency to stand and trade, given his questionable chin (four knockout losses). He predicts a first-round submission if Rodrigues uses his grappling, but acknowledges the risk of a knockout loss if he brawls.

first round submission
"I'm going to go Rodriguez first round submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

Cody picks Rodrigues, citing his power, wrestling, and aggression. He notes that Kopylov has struggled against grapplers and has poor takedown defense. Cody believes that Rodrigues will pressure Kopylov, take him down, and either finish or win a decision. He also mentions that Rodrigues has looked good in recent fights and is a reliable favorite.

"I like Robocop Rodrigues."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Nov 14, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Roman Kopylov

Connor picks Kopylov but calls it a coin flip. He notes that Kopylov is a sharpshooter who can target all levels and that Rodrigues gives openings for low kicks and head kicks. However, he acknowledges that Rodrigues has excellent wrestling and top game, and that Kopylov's only way to stop the pressure is to kill Rodrigues on the counter.

Odds: Kopylov opened -110, currently +165. Connor says 'it's a coin flip for me'.
"I think just to keep it interesting, I'll take Kapilov."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

Daniel favors Rodrigues despite disliking his unsportsmanlike follow-up punch in his last fight. He believes Rodrigues has more ways to win, with power in his hands and world-class jiu-jitsu, while Kopylov has been submitted by lesser grapplers. He also questions Kopylov's chin and ability to handle pressure.

"I do favor Hoboc in this one, man. I think he's got more ways to win."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Nov 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Roman Kopylov

Lucrative James picks Roman Kopylov to win by knockout, going against the grain. He believes Kopylov's fast boxing and head kicks can exploit Rodrigues' poor chin and cardio. He notes Rodrigues' grappling advantage but thinks Kopylov's takedown defense will hold up early, allowing him to land a knockout. He acknowledges this is a risky pick but sees value in the underdog.

by KO
"Roman Copilov wins this fight. Brutal knockout."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

Rodriguez is surprisingly not a bigger favorite. He walks Kopylov down like Paulo Costa did, throws big shots, gets his respect, and closes the show with a knockout.

knockout
"I think Hodriguez will do exactly what Paulo Costa did. Walk Copilov down, throw big shots, get his respect, and I think this time actually Rodriguez can close the show and win this fight by knockout."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

Paul agrees with Cody, noting that Rodrigues is a BJJ black belt with power and that Kopylov has gassed when taken down. He points out that Kopylov's last win was against a faded Paulo Costa and that he has been submitted by grapplers. Paul thinks Rodrigues will control the fight and win by decision or TKO.

"if G Rod is controlling you and he's forcing the issue, well, you know what's even more tiring than trying to hold somebody down."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

The Guru picks Gregory Rodrigues to win by TKO in round one or two. He highlights Rodrigues' pressure, power, and body work, which should overwhelm Kopylov, who has shown vulnerability to pressure. Kopylov's long torso makes him susceptible to body shots, and Rodrigues' recent KO win over Jack Hermansson shows his form. The Guru expects an early finish.

TKO in round 1 or 2
"I'm going to go with Gregory Rodriguez backing up Roman Copilov and finishing him in round one or two."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

Zane picks Rodrigues, citing his relentless pressure and power. He acknowledges that Kopylov is a sharpshooter who can stop Rodrigues with counters, but believes Rodrigues will likely get the driver's seat and crush Kopylov. Zane notes that Kopylov falls apart when pressured hard enough.

Odds: Rodrigues opened -110, currently -190. Kopylov opened -110, jumped to +135, currently +165.
"I got to take Rodriguez in that fight, you know?"
KO R1 4:21 · UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · Jun 28, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jack Hermansson 0 30 of 55 54% 30 of 55 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Gregory Rodrigues 1 18 of 63 28% 18 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jack Hermansson 0 30 of 55 54% 30 of 55 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Gregory Rodrigues 1 18 of 63 28% 18 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jack Hermansson 30 of 55 54% 24 of 49 2 of 2 4 of 4 30 of 54 0 of 1 0 of 0
Gregory Rodrigues 18 of 63 28% 11 of 54 6 of 8 1 of 1 18 of 63 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jack Hermansson 30 of 55 54% 24 of 49 2 of 2 4 of 4 30 of 54 0 of 1 0 of 0
Gregory Rodrigues 18 of 63 28% 11 of 54 6 of 8 1 of 1 18 of 63 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jun 22, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

Angelo leans Gregory Rodrigues because he believes Rodrigues's power and early success will carry him in a three-round fight, despite his cardio issues. He compares it to Jack Hermansson's win over Joe Pyfer, where Hermansson survived early and took over, but notes that Rodrigues's loss to Jared Cannonier was in the fourth round and Cannonier hits harder. He is cautious because Rodrigues is a -180 favorite with cardio concerns, and he suggests the over 1.5 rounds might be a good bet.

Angelo mentions he is interested in the over 1.5 rounds line if available, and notes that -180 for a guy who just got finished due to cardio is risky.
"Gregory Rodrigues is going to be the pick. I'm a little iffy on bets. Well, maybe we get a one-and-a-half round line."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2025 (7 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

Big Brady likes Rodrigues stylistically, noting his power advantage over Hermansson. He thinks Hermansson's best path is wrestling, but Rodrigues has good takedown defense and is a BJJ black belt. Brady expects the fight to stay standing, where Rodrigues will land harder shots. He references Marvin Vettori knocking down Hermansson as evidence of his chin vulnerability, and picks Rodrigues by second-round knockout.

Rodrigues wins by second round knockout
"I'm going to take Rodriguez to win this fight by second round knockout."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jun 27, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Rodrigues. He notes that Hermansson's wins come against limited fighters, while Rodrigues is a well-rounded athlete who can offer problems everywhere. Hermansson's long layoff and injuries are concerns, and Rodrigues' aggression and durability should carry him.

Odds: Hermansson +196, Rodrigues -205. Connor mentions the odds widening.
"I just got to go. Totally. Odds on the fight. Hermansson is the underdog opened at plus one 52 is currently a plus one 96. Rodriguez opened at minus one 85 currently minus two oh five. So odds only getting …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

The host notes Hermansson's long layoff and believes Rodrigues will dictate the pace with power punching and ground control, winning on the scorecards.

win on scorecards
"I think the Rodriguez will be able to dictate the pace with his power punching, but also an ability to take this fight to the ground and grind out Herman Manson leading to Rodriguez winning this fight on the scorecards."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

The host picks Gregory Rodrigues, citing his activity and more intricate striking compared to Hermansson's last opponent. He believes Rodrigues' grappling is good enough to neutralize Hermansson's, and that Hermansson's long layoff is a concern. He predicts a TKO win for Rodrigues in the first or second round.

TKO
"I'm going to go with him over Jack Manson here just because of recency. Like he's on the grind, he's on the hustle, he's on the come up."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 27, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

Zane picks Gregory Rodrigues because he sees Hermansson as a fighter who struggles against well-rounded athletes. Rodrigues is competent everywhere and can land bigger shots, while Hermansson needs time to establish his jab and lacks finishing power. Over three rounds, Rodrigues should be able to put it on Hermansson and win.

Odds: Hermansson +196, Rodrigues -205. Zane notes the odds are widening in Rodrigues' favor.
"I just got to go. Totally. Odds on the fight. Hermansson is the underdog opened at plus one 52 is currently a plus one 96. Rodriguez opened at minus one 85 currently minus two oh five. So odds only getting …"
LOSS vs Jared Cannonier
KO R4 0:21 · UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues · Feb 15, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jared Cannonier 2 98 of 201 48% 109 of 215 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:09
Gregory Rodrigues 2 93 of 221 42% 95 of 225 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:17
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jared Cannonier 0 22 of 38 57% 31 of 49 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:34
Gregory Rodrigues 2 25 of 66 37% 26 of 68 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:17
2 Jared Cannonier 0 33 of 72 45% 35 of 74 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:18
Gregory Rodrigues 0 25 of 68 36% 26 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Jared Cannonier 1 34 of 78 43% 34 of 79 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:17
Gregory Rodrigues 0 43 of 87 49% 43 of 87 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
4 Jared Cannonier 1 9 of 13 69% 9 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Gregory Rodrigues 0 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jared Cannonier 98 of 201 48% 59 of 157 20 of 23 19 of 21 69 of 161 20 of 25 9 of 15
Gregory Rodrigues 93 of 221 42% 65 of 188 21 of 25 7 of 8 85 of 208 8 of 12 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jared Cannonier 22 of 38 57% 10 of 25 5 of 5 7 of 8 15 of 30 7 of 8 0 of 0
Gregory Rodrigues 25 of 66 37% 16 of 53 8 of 11 1 of 2 19 of 56 6 of 9 0 of 1
2 Jared Cannonier 33 of 72 45% 15 of 50 11 of 14 7 of 8 28 of 65 5 of 7 0 of 0
Gregory Rodrigues 25 of 68 36% 16 of 59 5 of 5 4 of 4 25 of 67 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Jared Cannonier 34 of 78 43% 27 of 71 2 of 2 5 of 5 22 of 59 3 of 4 9 of 15
Gregory Rodrigues 43 of 87 49% 33 of 76 8 of 9 2 of 2 41 of 85 2 of 2 0 of 0
4 Jared Cannonier 9 of 13 69% 7 of 11 2 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 7 5 of 6 0 of 0
Gregory Rodrigues 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

Angelo picks Gregory Rodrigues over Jared Cannonier, citing Cannonier's age (40) as a key factor. He notes that Cannonier's chin and speed are declining, and while Cannonier may have early success, Rodrigues has enough power and grappling to turn the fight. Angelo also mentions he might bet the under on 4.5 rounds if the prop is available.

under 4.5 rounds (if available)
"Gregory is the pick and if we get a four and a half round line I I might Hammer that under"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

Big Brady picks Rodrigues by second-round knockout, noting Cannonier's decline in durability and performance. Cannonier was outclassed by Caio Borralho and wobbled by Vettori. Rodrigues is younger and has power, though his own chin is questionable. He expects Rodrigues to land a big shot and finish Cannonier.

knockout in round 2
"give me Ro Rodriguez and I think he stops cider in this fight I give give me Rodriguez by second round knockout"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Feb 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jared Cannonier

Connor picks Jared Cannonier, though hesitantly. He acknowledges Cannonier has lost a step and is on a slide, but believes this is a level of fight Cannonier can still win. He points to Cannonier's hand speed, counter-punching, and ability to time counters against Rodrigues' defensive liabilities. Connor also notes that Cannonier has been competitive with top fighters like Imavov and Bahaio, and that Rodrigues' tendency to get caught by surprise makes him susceptible to Cannonier's power. However, he admits the version of Cannonier that gets big finishes might be gone, and he can also envision Cannonier getting crushed.

Connor mentions that the odds for Rodrigues have moved from -193 to -221, and Cannonier from +147 to +182, and he doesn't think the odds should be getting longer on Cannonier. He notes that the guys who have slept Rodrigues (Bruno Ferreira, Jordan Williams) are not good fighters, implying Cannonier could still do it.
"I still feel inclined to pick Canoneer though."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Feb 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

Lucrative James picks Gregory Rodrigues despite acknowledging his suspect chin, because Jared Cannonier is 40 years old and has taken severe damage in recent fights, especially the brutal KO loss to Caio Borralho just five and a half months ago. He believes Cannonier's age and accumulated punishment make him vulnerable to Rodrigues' power and pressure. However, he notes that Rodrigues gets hit often and has been knocked out by lesser fighters, so he is not fully confident. He also mentions that Cannonier is live for a KO and may play a small prop on Cannonier by KO. He strongly recommends betting 'fight doesn't go to distance' at -250, seeing value there.

Fight doesn't go to distance at -250; under 2.5 rounds at -125; small play on Jared Cannonier by KO
"I'm going to pick Gregory Rodriguez and the reason I'm doing that is because of Jared's age because of the punishment he has took"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2025 (fight day)
Gregory Rodrigues

Cannonier is on a downward slope at nearly 41 years old. Rodrigues will use pace, pressure, and power to take advantage of Cannonier's diminishing durability and speed. Cannonier has been hurt in recent fights, and Rodrigues finishes him in the second or third round.

Rodrigues inside the distance, round 2 or 3
"Look for Rodriguez to utilize a solid pace and pressure and really leaning on that power... I think Rodriguez can put a stamp on this matchup by getting a finish in the second or third round."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

The MMA Guru picks Gregory Rodrigues over Jared Cannonier, citing Cannonier's age (40), recent damage, and lack of recent knockouts. He highlights Rodrigues' size, grappling advantage, power, and youth. He believes Rodrigues has multiple paths to victory: knockout, takedown and ground control, or submission, while Cannonier has fewer options.

"I'm going to trust in Gregory Rodriguez getting this one done"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

Zane picks Gregory Rodrigues because he believes Cannonier has lost a step and no longer has the finishing ability to capitalize on Rodrigues' defensive lapses. He notes that Cannonier's tactical, non-strategic style means he gives opponents infinite chances, and with age and declining durability, those chances are now breaking against him. Zane also highlights Rodrigues' improved wrestling and strategic approach, as seen in the Brad Tavares fight, as key factors. He acknowledges Cannonier could still catch Rodrigues, but trusts the math less for Cannonier now.

Zane mentions that the odds for Rodrigues have moved from -193 to -221, and Cannonier from +147 to +182, and he doesn't think the odds should be getting longer on Cannonier. He notes that the guys who have slept Rodrigues (Bruno Ferreira, Jordan Williams) are not good fighters, implying Cannonier could still do it.
"But now I'm going to pick Gregory Rodriguez because I don't think that Cannon here is ever going to take this fight over from Rodriguez."
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · Jul 27, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Gregory Rodrigues 0 29 of 48 60% 53 of 77 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:45
Christian Leroy Duncan 0 45 of 79 56% 78 of 120 4 of 12 33% 0 0 8:20
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Gregory Rodrigues 0 9 of 19 47% 9 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Christian Leroy Duncan 0 12 of 21 57% 21 of 34 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:01
2 Gregory Rodrigues 0 13 of 17 76% 24 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:25
Christian Leroy Duncan 0 26 of 43 60% 40 of 58 1 of 7 14% 0 0 1:39
3 Gregory Rodrigues 0 7 of 12 58% 20 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:20
Christian Leroy Duncan 0 7 of 15 46% 17 of 28 2 of 4 50% 0 0 3:40
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Gregory Rodrigues 29 of 48 60% 13 of 28 7 of 10 9 of 10 23 of 40 6 of 8 0 of 0
Christian Leroy Duncan 45 of 79 56% 37 of 69 8 of 10 0 of 0 28 of 55 12 of 18 5 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Gregory Rodrigues 9 of 19 47% 3 of 10 2 of 4 4 of 5 9 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
Christian Leroy Duncan 12 of 21 57% 9 of 16 3 of 5 0 of 0 9 of 17 0 of 0 3 of 4
2 Gregory Rodrigues 13 of 17 76% 8 of 11 3 of 4 2 of 2 7 of 10 6 of 7 0 of 0
Christian Leroy Duncan 26 of 43 60% 21 of 38 5 of 5 0 of 0 15 of 27 11 of 16 0 of 0
3 Gregory Rodrigues 7 of 12 58% 2 of 7 2 of 2 3 of 3 7 of 11 0 of 1 0 of 0
Christian Leroy Duncan 7 of 15 46% 7 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 11 1 of 2 2 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jul 21, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Christian Leroy Duncan

Angelo picks Christian Leroy Duncan but with very low confidence, calling it a 51% lean. He cites Duncan's sharp striking and hometown advantage, but acknowledges that Gregory Rodrigues is incredibly durable and dangerous. Angelo warns that Duncan can get too comfortable and showboat, potentially getting caught. He describes this as a very tough fight to pick.

"I'm gonna pick clld because of the sharp striking and the hometown Advantage but he could be a landmine"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Christian Leroy Duncan

Cody picks Christian Leroy Duncan, citing his superior striking, footwork, and precision. He notes that Gregory Rodrigues has a suspect chin and has been knocked out multiple times when standing. Cody believes Duncan can knock him out if Rodrigues chooses to brawl, but acknowledges that Rodrigues could win by grappling. However, he thinks Rodrigues is likely to engage in a striking battle, which favors Duncan.

Christian Leroy Duncan by TKO
"I'm going to go Duncan but you know at the end of the day when you look at like which other these underdogs do you not mind you didn't piay KCK them but it's like I I see the path …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jul 25, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

Daniel picks Gregory Rodrigues (RoboCop), impressed by his knockout of Brad Tavares and his takedown ability. He questions Duncan's competition (exhausted Claudio Ribeiro, Dennis Tiuliulin) and notes that Duncan struggled against Armen Petrosyan. He trusts Rodrigues' power and wrestling, and notes Rodrigues has four knockouts in his last five fights.

"I'm going hobocop here for sure"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

Daniel acknowledges Christian Leroy Duncan's athleticism and flashy style but thinks Gregory Rodrigues has more paths to victory: decision, submission, or knockout. He notes Rodrigues' power, durability, and Jiu-Jitsu, while Duncan may be 'kill or bust.' He is hesitant due to Rodrigues' defensive flaws and stiff movement.

"I'm going to pick him in the spot but I'm very you know I acknowledge the fact that Leroy Duncan is special"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Jul 25, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Christian Leroy Duncan

Jeff picks Christian Leroy Duncan, believing he will knock out Rodrigues. He notes that Rodrigues gets hurt in every fight and Duncan has shown power. He cites Duncan's four-inch reach advantage and thinks Duncan's striking will be the difference.

Christian Leroy Duncan via knockout +150
"I'm taking CD I think he's going to knock him out as well hobocop gets caught a lot"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Christian Leroy Duncan

Paul also picks Duncan, noting that the fight ending inside the distance is likely. He points out that Rodrigues' chin has been checked many times and that Duncan has never been finished. Paul believes Duncan will knock out Rodrigues, but he also considers the possibility of Rodrigues using grappling, which could expose Duncan's wrestling. He plans to bet on the fight ending inside the distance.

Fight ends inside the distance
"I think the most likely bet that I may add to some like long parlays and stuff his fight ends inside the distance here that's like minus two that's minus 220."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 22, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

The MMA Guru picks Gregory Rodrigues, citing his grappling edge and KO power. He notes that Rodrigues has better takedowns and can out-grapple Christian Leroy Duncan, who may struggle with grappling defense. The Guru also believes Rodrigues has more punching power and that Duncan hasn't faced someone with that level of power. He references Duncan's fight against Arman Petrosyan, where he was taken down, and suggests Rodrigues can replicate that success.

"I'm going to go with Gregory Rodriguez man I'm gonna pick Gregory Rodriguez I think he's got if there's anyone going to be out grappling the other here it's going to be Rodriguez getting takedowns on Christian Leroy Duncan"
WIN vs Brad Tavares
TKO (punches) R3 0:55 · UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer · Feb 10, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Gregory Rodrigues 0 37 of 84 44% 42 of 90 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Brad Tavares 0 71 of 123 57% 79 of 135 2 of 6 33% 0 0 3:18
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Gregory Rodrigues 0 14 of 30 46% 19 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Brad Tavares 0 25 of 49 51% 29 of 55 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:56
2 Gregory Rodrigues 0 18 of 39 46% 18 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Brad Tavares 0 22 of 40 55% 26 of 46 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:22
3 Gregory Rodrigues 0 5 of 15 33% 5 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Brad Tavares 0 24 of 34 70% 24 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Gregory Rodrigues 37 of 84 44% 28 of 70 4 of 9 5 of 5 36 of 83 1 of 1 0 of 0
Brad Tavares 71 of 123 57% 53 of 102 8 of 9 10 of 12 64 of 114 7 of 9 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Gregory Rodrigues 14 of 30 46% 10 of 24 1 of 3 3 of 3 14 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
Brad Tavares 25 of 49 51% 19 of 41 4 of 5 2 of 3 20 of 43 5 of 6 0 of 0
2 Gregory Rodrigues 18 of 39 46% 14 of 32 2 of 5 2 of 2 17 of 38 1 of 1 0 of 0
Brad Tavares 22 of 40 55% 13 of 30 3 of 3 6 of 7 20 of 37 2 of 3 0 of 0
3 Gregory Rodrigues 5 of 15 33% 4 of 14 1 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Brad Tavares 24 of 34 70% 21 of 31 1 of 1 2 of 2 24 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 4, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

Angelo describes Gregory Rodrigues as a powerful striker with a BJJ black belt and good takedown defense, and notes he is a threat everywhere. Brad Tavares is tough and experienced but not dangerous, with only two finishes in 15 UFC wins. Angelo believes Rodrigues' forward pressure and power will win the fight, likely by decision due to Tavares' durability.

"Gregory Rodriguez is going to win this fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 5, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

Big Brady picks Gregory Rodrigues to win by second-round knockout. He notes that Rodrigues has power and durability issues, but Tavares has no finishing ability and is getting older. He expects Rodrigues to march forward and land a big shot, knocking out Tavares. He mentions that Tavares couldn't finish 41-year-old Matt Wyman, which was a terrible look.

second round knockout
"give me Rodriguez here I'll take him to win this fight by second round knockdown"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

Cody picks Rodrigues, noting Tavares lacks power and has not knocked anyone out in years. He thinks Rodrigues' size and pressure will be too much, and that Tavares' low volume and lack of finishing ability play into Rodrigues' hands. Cody expects a decision win for Rodrigues, possibly 29-28 or 30-27.

"Rodriguez is the pick for me"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Feb 5, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Brad Tavares

Tavares has a striking advantage and solid takedown defense. He should be able to control the fight with leg kicks and counter striking. Rodrigues may strike himself exhausted trying to finish. Tavares' durability is a non-issue, and his losses are to top-tier competition. At +195, this is a no-brainer spot for the veteran to win by decision.

"I'm going to lean with Tavaris here the veteran experience the Striking Advantage hopefully his durability holds up which I believe again is a nonissue and at plus 195 no brainer spot here give me the veteran brat tarz to …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

Paul agrees, calling Tavares a gatekeeper who doesn't pose many threats. He notes Tavares' lack of knockout power and that Rodrigues is huge for the weight class. Paul thinks Rodrigues' grappling and pressure will be decisive, and that Tavares' takedown defense may not hold up. He expects a clear decision for Rodrigues.

"I'm GNA have to agree as well Brad tarz is very serviceable like you said but uh he's he's a gatekeeper"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

The MMA Guru picks Gregory Rodrigues with high confidence, criticizing Brad Tavares for not finishing a compromised Chris Weidman. He believes Tavares is not high-level and lacks punch power. He expects Rodrigues to find a TKO win on the feet, as he does not think Tavares can put him away.

TKO win
"I'm going to go Gregory Rodriguez no doubt in my mind about this either... I'm gonna side with Gregory Rodriguez finding some kind of TKO win over Brad Tavarez on the feet."
KO (elbows) R1 1:43 · UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley · Aug 19, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Gregory Rodrigues 0 5 of 6 83% 6 of 8 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:47
Denis Tiuliulin 0 2 of 7 28% 3 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Gregory Rodrigues 0 5 of 6 83% 6 of 8 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:47
Denis Tiuliulin 0 2 of 7 28% 3 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Gregory Rodrigues 5 of 6 83% 4 of 5 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 4
Denis Tiuliulin 2 of 7 28% 2 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Gregory Rodrigues 5 of 6 83% 4 of 5 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 4
Denis Tiuliulin 2 of 7 28% 2 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Aug 13, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

Angelo picks Gregory Rodrigues but with low confidence, noting that the fight should be closer to a pick'em than the current odds. He believes Rodrigues has a significant ground advantage and can submit Tiuliulin if he shoots takedowns. However, he worries that Rodrigues might choose to slug it out, which could lead to another knockout loss. He notes Tiuliulin's power fades over three rounds and he has nothing on the ground.

"Gregory Rodriguez is going to be the pick very low confidence pick because I want him to shoot takedowns... but if Gregory wants to come in there and Slug It Out he can end up with a really bad night …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 12, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

Big Brady confidently picks Gregory Rodrigues to win by first-round submission, emphasizing Rodrigues' elite jiu-jitsu against Denis Tiuliulin's poor ground game. He notes Tiuliulin has been submitted in four of his seven losses and looked lost on the mat against Jun Yong Park. Brady worries Rodrigues might stand and bang, but if he grapples, the fight ends quickly.

win by submission, round 1
"I'll say he grapples I'll say he destroys Dennis to a Lewin in the first five minutes on the mat first round sub for Gregory Rodriguez"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

Cody expects Rodrigues to take the fight to the ground and submit Tiuliulin, who has poor grappling defense. He notes Rodrigues has questionable ring IQ and may stand and trade, but if he wrestles, he wins easily. He predicts a rear-naked choke submission in the first or second round.

Rodrigues by submission; under 1.5 rounds; fight time under 5 minutes
"I would say this fight hits the ground Greg Rodriguez puts that rear [__] choke into play so sign me up for rear naked choke first round submission"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 17, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

Daniel Levi picks Gregory Rodrigues, expecting him to grapple more after his last knockout loss. He notes that Rodrigues has heavy hands and a dangerous submission game, and that Tiuliulin is vulnerable on the ground, having been submitted before. Levi thinks Rodrigues will submit Tiuliulin in round one or two, but acknowledges that Tiuliulin is dangerous on the feet and has a better chin. He played under 1.5 rounds and submission props.

Under 1.5 rounds; submission in round 1 or 2
"I think he's actually gonna grapple more this fight... I think he's gonna grapple here and submit Dennis in round one or two"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Aug 18, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

Lucrative James picks Gregory Rodrigues to win, likely by finish from top position. He acknowledges Rodrigues' poor chin but believes he will overwhelm Tiuliulin. He also likes a prop bet on Tiuliulin by KO due to Rodrigues' chin issues, calling it a system play.

Denis Tiuliulin by KO (plus 500)
"I'm picking Gregory Rodriguez to win this fight I don't mind the dentist by KO shot"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

Rodrigues is a high-level BJJ black belt with improving striking. Tiuliulin struggles with grapplers, as seen in his recent losses. Rodrigues will take him down and dominate from top position, likely finishing inside the distance. The moneyline is worth the chalk, but the finish prop offers a discount.

Rodrigues wins inside distance
"I'm taking Rodriguez to win this fight very easily and I think he does it inside the distance especially if you want to get a bit of a discount on that money line"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

The MMA Guru picks Gregory Rodrigues, though he notes if the odds become ridiculous, betting on Tiuliulin might not be bad. He thinks Rodrigues can win on the feet or by taking the fight to the ground if needed. He criticizes Tiuliulin's hittable style and compares it unfavorably to Diaz/Covington at higher weights. He predicts a KO win for Rodrigues.

KO
"I think Gregory Rodriguez gets this one done by KO"