UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig · Nov 18, 2023 · Catchweight (148 lb) · Completed
Prev Fight UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig Next Fight
Age 31
Height 5' 8"
Reach 69.0"
Weight 145 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 30
Height 5' 11"
Reach 73.0"
Weight 145 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Jeka Saragih
2.75 SLpM
50.0% Str. Acc.
2.82 SApM
40.0% Str. Def.
2.17 TD Avg
80.0% TD Acc.
66.0% TD Def.
0.5 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Lucas Alexander
4.69 SLpM
57.0% Str. Acc.
2.87 SApM
56.0% Str. Def.
0.0 TD Avg
0.0% TD Acc.
60.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Jeka Saragih
Moneyline
Caesars +430
KO/TKO
DraftKings +1100
Submission
DraftKings +2200
Decision
BetRivers +800
Lucas Alexander
Moneyline
BetMGM -500
KO/TKO
FanDuel +110
Submission
FanDuel +600
Decision
BetWay +275
Jeka Saragih - Fight History
CANCEL vs JooSang Yoo
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2025 (6 days before fight)
JooSang Yoo

Angelo picks Yoo Joo-sang very confidently, calling Jeka Saragih a bar brawler who sucks. He praises Yoo's fluid striking, confidence, and grappling. He thinks Jeka's only chance is a lucky punch, which he doesn't see happening. He parlayed Yoo with Azamat Murzakanov as his two most confident picks.

Parlayed with Azamat Murzakanov.
"Juang Yu is going to be the pick. ... I parlayed him with Azimat Mzakonov because the reality is they're my two most confident picks on this card."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 3, 2025 (4 days before fight)
JooSang Yoo

Big Brady picks Yoo Joo-sang, noting his solid striking and grappling. He thinks Jeka Saragih is dangerous early but will fade, and that Yoo will mix in takedowns and break Saragih in the second or third round. He calls Saragih's win over Lucas Alexander a fluke and doubts he will win another UFC fight. He predicts Yoo by second-round submission.

Yoo by submission in round 2
"Give me you to win this fight. I'll take him to win this fight by second round submission."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2025 (3 days before fight)
JooSang Yoo

This is considered a squash match for Yoo Joo-sang. As long as he avoids Saragih's early power, he will take the fight to the ground quickly and find a finish within one round. The pick is for Yoo Joo-sang via TKO or submission in round one.

finish in round 1
"I expect you to take Sergi down to the mat pretty quickly. And from there, I think he'll be able to find the finish within one round. Give me Juang Yu Vu via TKO or submission in round one."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Jun 4, 2025 (3 days before fight)
JooSang Yoo

The MMA Guru picks Yoo Joo-sang but is hesitant, noting his padded record against weak opponents. He acknowledges Jeka Saragih has power and a chance to KO, but Saragih is easy to take down and has bad losses. He bets on Yoo's recent improvement and finishes, predicting a first or second round finish. He sees value on Saragih as an underdog.

Odds comment: Yoo is a 5-to-1 favorite. Finish prediction: first or second round finish for Yoo. Value on Saragih as underdog.
"I'm going to go with Juan. Undefeated, looked good in his last few. Had some finishes over some decent recorded opponents."
LOSS vs JooSang Yoo
KO R1 0:28 · UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · Jun 07, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
JooSang Yoo 0 2 of 4 50% 2 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jeka Saragih 1 6 of 8 75% 6 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 JooSang Yoo 0 2 of 4 50% 2 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jeka Saragih 1 6 of 8 75% 6 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
JooSang Yoo 2 of 4 50% 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jeka Saragih 6 of 8 75% 4 of 6 0 of 0 2 of 2 5 of 7 0 of 0 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 JooSang Yoo 2 of 4 50% 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jeka Saragih 6 of 8 75% 4 of 6 0 of 0 2 of 2 5 of 7 0 of 0 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2025 (6 days before fight)
JooSang Yoo

This appears to be a duplicate listing of the same matchup as fight_id 8369. Angelo's pick is the same: Yoo Joo-sang. He is very confident, calling Jeka a bar brawler and praising Yoo's skills. He parlayed Yoo with Azamat Murzakanov.

Parlayed with Azamat Murzakanov.
"Juang Yu is going to be the pick. ... I parlayed him with Azimat Mzakonov."
LOSS vs Westin Wilson
Submission (triangle armbar) R1 1:49 · UFC on ESPN: Perez vs. Taira · Jun 15, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Westin Wilson 0 4 of 8 50% 4 of 9 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:53
Jeka Saragih 0 0 of 1 0% 2 of 3 1 of 3 33% 3 0 0:35
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Westin Wilson 0 4 of 8 50% 4 of 9 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:53
Jeka Saragih 0 0 of 1 0% 2 of 3 1 of 3 33% 3 0 0:35
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Westin Wilson 4 of 8 50% 2 of 6 1 of 1 1 of 1 3 of 5 0 of 0 1 of 3
Jeka Saragih 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Westin Wilson 4 of 8 50% 2 of 6 1 of 1 1 of 1 3 of 5 0 of 0 1 of 3
Jeka Saragih 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 14, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Jeka Saragih

Angelo picks Jeka, citing his one-punch power and the fact that Westin Wilson gets hit and has been knocked out. He notes Jeka also has grappling as a backup. He acknowledges Westin's length and karate style could cause trouble if Jeka headhunts and gasses, but ultimately believes Jeka's power is the difference. He suggests betting Jeka inside the distance or by KO.

Jeka Saragih inside the distance or by knockout
"Jeka has to be the pick here he's an insanely powerful guy Westin Wilson gets chinned"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Jun 12, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Westin Wilson

Cody picks Westin Wilson as a live underdog, noting his size and reach advantage, and that Saragih is a low-volume striker with poor grappling. He acknowledges Wilson's poor chin but thinks he can use distance management and possibly submit Saragih. Cody calls it a 'sprinkle' and expects Wilson to either win by decision or get knocked out.

over 1.5 rounds at plus 240
"I think I might take a shot in Westin Wilson but it would be the PRP pick he'd be all the way at the bottom."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jun 12, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jeka Saragih

Daniel Vreeland is critical of Westin Wilson's athleticism, head movement, durability, and confidence at the UFC level. He believes Jeka Saragih, despite being green, has knockout power and will knock out Wilson. He sarcastically notes that Wilson is a favorable matchup for Saragih.

"I think he comes out here and he knocks out Weston Wilson"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Hesitant picked Jun 14, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Jeka Saragih

Jacob picks Jeka but does not trust him, recalling Jeka's previous loss as a lock of the week where he looked lost on the ground. He notes that Westin Wilson has been competitive against better fighters and can land shots that could clip Jeka. He thinks Jeka should win but is not confident and is not betting him.

"I'm picking Jeka but I don't trust him for [__]"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 13, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jeka Saragih

Saragih has knockout power and should eventually find Wilson's chin and put him out. However, the odds are not worth it. Wilson is a poor man's Wonderboy and could be dangerous with a submission, but Saragih's power is the deciding factor.

odds not worth it
"I do think that Seri will eventually find the chin of Wilson and put him out the odds that he's currently at not worth it though"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Jun 12, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jeka Saragih

Paul picks Jeka Saragih but is hesitant, noting that Saragih has power but is low-volume and has shown poor grappling. He thinks Saragih will likely land a big shot and knock out Wilson, but the price is too high for comfort. Paul prefers to look for a prop like Wilson by submission.

looking for Weston Wilson by sub prop
"I'll be on the hunt I'll be looking for like maybe a Weston Wilson by sub prop at some point this week."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 11, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Jeka Saragih

The MMA Guru picks Jeka Saragih, calling him a knockout artist with explosive power. He believes Saragih will land brutal KO shots early, referencing his spinning backfist and straight right hand. He dismisses Westin Wilson's flashy techniques and thinks Wilson has a good chin for KO shots, meaning Saragih will find the finish.

"Weston Wilson your getting knocked out by Jaa sarig"
KO (punches) R1 1:31 · UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig · Nov 18, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jeka Saragih 1 4 of 9 44% 4 of 9 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:05
Lucas Alexander 0 11 of 16 68% 11 of 16 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jeka Saragih 1 4 of 9 44% 4 of 9 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:05
Lucas Alexander 0 11 of 16 68% 11 of 16 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jeka Saragih 4 of 9 44% 3 of 6 1 of 2 0 of 1 2 of 6 0 of 0 2 of 3
Lucas Alexander 11 of 16 68% 6 of 10 2 of 3 3 of 3 11 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jeka Saragih 4 of 9 44% 3 of 6 1 of 2 0 of 1 2 of 6 0 of 0 2 of 3
Lucas Alexander 11 of 16 68% 6 of 10 2 of 3 3 of 3 11 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Lucas Alexander

Angelo picks Lucas Alexander, citing his superior technique, BJJ, and high-level experience. He notes that both fighters have one-punch power but believes Lucas is better everywhere. He mentions the odds at 3-to-1 seem a little wide because Jeka could end it at any moment, but still expects Lucas to win.

Odds comment: 3-to-1 on Lucas seems a little wide
"Lucas Alexander is going to be better here he's just going to be the better fighter he's going to have the same power as Jaa but better technique better BJJ more highlevel experience"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 17, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Lucas Alexander

Big Brady notes that Saragih looked terrible against Anshul Jubilee and that Alexander has heavy kicks, including breaking someone's arm. He thinks Alexander is the much better striker and will break Saragih down with leg kicks, leading to an attritional TKO. He predicts a third-round knockout, noting Saragih is dangerous early but Alexander has never been knocked out.

"I'm going to take Lucas Alexander to win this fight by third round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Lucas Alexander

Cody picks Lucas Alexander confidently, citing his performance against Steve Peterson and Saragih's poor showing against Anheliger. He notes Saragih's one-dimensional striking and poor wrestling. Alexander is stronger, more dynamic, and can win by striking or grappling.

"Lucas Alexander absolutely rolles seems pretty clear to me"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 17, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Lucas Alexander

Alexander is a technical striker with good anticipation and counter striking. He uses calf kicks and accurate punches to pick apart opponents. Saragih is reckless and lacks technical acumen, though he has durability. Alexander will chip away from distance and land big shots, likely winning by decision. Saragih's recklessness could lead to a knockout, but Alexander's power may not finish him.

"give me Lucas Alexander and I think he wins this fight by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Lucas Alexander

Paul picks Alexander, noting Saragih's flat-footed style and poor takedown defense. He believes Alexander's power and grappling will be too much. Paul thinks Saragih's only chance is a puncher's chance, but Alexander is the better fighter.

"I'm gonna take Lucas Alexander"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Lucas Alexander

The MMA Guru picks Lucas Alexander over Jeka Saragih, despite admitting he doubted Alexander early in his career. He criticizes Saragih as a 'diversity hire' who lost in the Road to UFC tournament final but got into the UFC anyway. He notes Alexander's reach and height advantage and expects him to score a decision win by keeping the fight rangy.

"I'm going to go Lucas Alexander... reach advantage, height advantage, going to keep it rangy on the feet, I reckon he'll be able to score his way to a decision win 30-27."
LOSS vs Anshul Jubli
TKO (punches and elbows) R2 3:44 · UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spivac · Feb 04, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Anshul Jubli 0 14 of 25 56% 20 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Jeka Saragih 0 38 of 51 74% 74 of 99 2 of 5 40% 1 0 7:07
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Anshul Jubli 0 13 of 21 61% 18 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Jeka Saragih 0 9 of 20 45% 20 of 39 1 of 3 33% 1 0 3:34
2 Anshul Jubli 0 1 of 4 25% 2 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jeka Saragih 0 29 of 31 93% 54 of 60 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:33
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Anshul Jubli 14 of 25 56% 2 of 10 3 of 4 9 of 11 10 of 20 2 of 3 2 of 2
Jeka Saragih 38 of 51 74% 36 of 47 1 of 3 1 of 1 6 of 14 0 of 0 32 of 37
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Anshul Jubli 13 of 21 61% 2 of 7 2 of 3 9 of 11 9 of 16 2 of 3 2 of 2
Jeka Saragih 9 of 20 45% 9 of 18 0 of 2 0 of 0 5 of 13 0 of 0 4 of 7
2 Anshul Jubli 1 of 4 25% 0 of 3 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jeka Saragih 29 of 31 93% 27 of 29 1 of 1 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 28 of 30
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jan 29, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Jeka Saragih

Big Brady favors Saragih's power and finishing ability, noting his 92% finish rate. He worries about Saragih's cardio but thinks he can get an early knockout. He picks Saragih by first-round knockout but suggests Jubli could be a live bet if the fight extends.

first round knockout, live betting on Jubli if fight extends
"I'm gonna take Sarah gee to get the early knockout I'm gonna say he knocks out Jubilee in the first round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jeka Saragih

Cody picks Saragih, surprised he is the underdog. He notes Saragih has more tools and is a potent finisher with spinning attacks and power. He thinks Jubli is a straightforward striker who gasses, while Saragih has shown finishing ability. He took Saragih at -110.

"I don't really understand this line to be perfectly honest I took uh Sarah gee I've got him at minus 110... I think the more complete and more dangerous Strikers surrogate so I'm surprised he's the the underdog here"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Feb 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jeka Saragih

Connor agrees with Zane, pointing out that Jubli is not a knockout artist and may lack power despite his height. He notes that Saragih has natural power and sets up entries well, and that Jubli's tendency to step into the pocket could lead to a rude awakening. He also mentions that Jubli was shaken by a left hook in a previous fight, and Saragih could land a similar shot that knocks him out cold.

Odds opened at +145 for Jubli, now -120; Saragih opened -175, now -103. Nearly dead even.
"I feel like this could be a rude awakening for julie."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jeka Saragih

Paul picks Saragih, calling him a showman with legitimate power. He notes Saragih's highlight-reel knockouts and willingness to take a punch to land one. He thinks Jubli has better movement but gasses, and Saragih will eventually land a knockout. He expects a sloppy, entertaining fight ending in a KO for Saragih.

"I'm actually going to agree but this one's gonna be very sloppy... I think jaka knocks him out and gets the win so yeah sign me up about even money"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Feb 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jeka Saragih

Zane favors Saragih due to the latent stiffness in Jubli's game, comparing him to an early-stage Henry Hooft fighter who overthinks and has a half-second delay. He notes that Saragih is a stocky, muscle-bound power hitter with quick triggers and a willingness to brawl, and that Jubli's fundamental approach may lead to a prospect loss where shortcuts are rewarded.

Odds opened at +145 for Jubli, now -120; Saragih opened -175, now -103. Nearly dead even.
"I kind of favor saragi here, yeah, just because of the the the latent like stiffness in Jubilee's game."
Lucas Alexander - Fight History
LOSS vs Bogdan Grad
KO R2 4:22 · UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Imavov · Feb 01, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Bogdan Grad 0 46 of 66 69% 59 of 86 3 of 8 37% 0 0 4:18
Lucas Alexander 0 34 of 52 65% 47 of 71 0 of 1 0% 0 1 2:13
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Bogdan Grad 0 5 of 9 55% 13 of 20 2 of 7 28% 0 0 1:17
Lucas Alexander 0 15 of 23 65% 28 of 42 0 of 1 0% 0 1 2:13
2 Bogdan Grad 0 41 of 57 71% 46 of 66 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:01
Lucas Alexander 0 19 of 29 65% 19 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Bogdan Grad 46 of 66 69% 42 of 60 1 of 2 3 of 4 9 of 18 3 of 4 34 of 44
Lucas Alexander 34 of 52 65% 19 of 37 7 of 7 8 of 8 29 of 45 3 of 4 2 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Bogdan Grad 5 of 9 55% 5 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 1 4 of 8 1 of 1 0 of 0
Lucas Alexander 15 of 23 65% 10 of 18 1 of 1 4 of 4 11 of 17 2 of 3 2 of 3
2 Bogdan Grad 41 of 57 71% 37 of 52 1 of 2 3 of 3 5 of 10 2 of 3 34 of 44
Lucas Alexander 19 of 29 65% 9 of 19 6 of 6 4 of 4 18 of 28 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 26, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Bogdan Grad

Angelo picks Bogdan Grad because of his well-rounded skills, methodical approach, and high finishing rate (11 stoppages in 14 wins). He notes that Lucas Alexander is dangerous but coming off a KO loss to a low-level opponent. He believes Grad's control and pace will be mistaken for inability to finish, but Grad finds finishes without being reckless.

"I am picking Bogden grad here Lucas Alexander is somebody who can be finished I do think Lucas is good though and Lucas can be dangerous I'm going Bogden"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jan 27, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Lucas Alexander

Big Brady likes Lucas Alexander's striking and thinks he trains with good guys. He notes Alexander has been submitted three times and has questionable takedown defense, but believes Alexander will piece up Bogdan Grad across three rounds. Grad is tough and has heart but is a walking punching bag. Brady would have liked Alexander more at +170 but thinks pick 'em is about accurate.

"I'm leaning Alexander here I don't think grad's gonna have a ton of success with the wrestling maybe he can mix in a takedown here or there but I do think it's going to be Alexander just pretty much piecing …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Lucas Alexander

Alexander's Muay Thai striking and ability to fight from both stances will allow him to pick apart Grad's erratic style. Grad's explosivity and grappling may cause early trouble, but Alexander's technical striking and work off the back foot should secure a decision win.

"Alexander fighting from both stances and well off of his back foot will do a good enough job in terms of striking straight down the pipe against the more erratic style of Grad and that will lead to him picking …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 28, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Bogdan Grad

The MMA Guru picks Bogdan Grad, believing he is good enough on the feet to hang with Lucas Alexander and will have a takedown threat advantage. He notes Alexander is coming off a first-round TKO loss and has been out for over a year. He thinks Grad can get the job done early.

"I'm actually going to go with Bogdan grad... I think the takedown threat's going to be there and I think it's in advantage of him"
LOSS vs Jeka Saragih
KO (punches) R1 1:31 · UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig · Nov 18, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jeka Saragih 1 4 of 9 44% 4 of 9 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:05
Lucas Alexander 0 11 of 16 68% 11 of 16 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jeka Saragih 1 4 of 9 44% 4 of 9 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:05
Lucas Alexander 0 11 of 16 68% 11 of 16 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jeka Saragih 4 of 9 44% 3 of 6 1 of 2 0 of 1 2 of 6 0 of 0 2 of 3
Lucas Alexander 11 of 16 68% 6 of 10 2 of 3 3 of 3 11 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jeka Saragih 4 of 9 44% 3 of 6 1 of 2 0 of 1 2 of 6 0 of 0 2 of 3
Lucas Alexander 11 of 16 68% 6 of 10 2 of 3 3 of 3 11 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Lucas Alexander

Angelo picks Lucas Alexander, citing his superior technique, BJJ, and high-level experience. He notes that both fighters have one-punch power but believes Lucas is better everywhere. He mentions the odds at 3-to-1 seem a little wide because Jeka could end it at any moment, but still expects Lucas to win.

Odds comment: 3-to-1 on Lucas seems a little wide
"Lucas Alexander is going to be better here he's just going to be the better fighter he's going to have the same power as Jaa but better technique better BJJ more highlevel experience"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 17, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Lucas Alexander

Big Brady notes that Saragih looked terrible against Anshul Jubilee and that Alexander has heavy kicks, including breaking someone's arm. He thinks Alexander is the much better striker and will break Saragih down with leg kicks, leading to an attritional TKO. He predicts a third-round knockout, noting Saragih is dangerous early but Alexander has never been knocked out.

"I'm going to take Lucas Alexander to win this fight by third round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Lucas Alexander

Cody picks Lucas Alexander confidently, citing his performance against Steve Peterson and Saragih's poor showing against Anheliger. He notes Saragih's one-dimensional striking and poor wrestling. Alexander is stronger, more dynamic, and can win by striking or grappling.

"Lucas Alexander absolutely rolles seems pretty clear to me"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 17, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Lucas Alexander

Alexander is a technical striker with good anticipation and counter striking. He uses calf kicks and accurate punches to pick apart opponents. Saragih is reckless and lacks technical acumen, though he has durability. Alexander will chip away from distance and land big shots, likely winning by decision. Saragih's recklessness could lead to a knockout, but Alexander's power may not finish him.

"give me Lucas Alexander and I think he wins this fight by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Lucas Alexander

Paul picks Alexander, noting Saragih's flat-footed style and poor takedown defense. He believes Alexander's power and grappling will be too much. Paul thinks Saragih's only chance is a puncher's chance, but Alexander is the better fighter.

"I'm gonna take Lucas Alexander"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Lucas Alexander

The MMA Guru picks Lucas Alexander over Jeka Saragih, despite admitting he doubted Alexander early in his career. He criticizes Saragih as a 'diversity hire' who lost in the Road to UFC tournament final but got into the UFC anyway. He notes Alexander's reach and height advantage and expects him to score a decision win by keeping the fight rangy.

"I'm going to go Lucas Alexander... reach advantage, height advantage, going to keep it rangy on the feet, I reckon he'll be able to score his way to a decision win 30-27."
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Vera vs. Sandhagen · Mar 25, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Lucas Alexander 0 26 of 101 25% 27 of 102 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:31
Steven Peterson 1 85 of 158 53% 86 of 159 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:55
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Lucas Alexander 0 11 of 34 32% 11 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Steven Peterson 0 24 of 41 58% 24 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
2 Lucas Alexander 0 8 of 31 25% 8 of 31 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:03
Steven Peterson 0 27 of 54 50% 27 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
3 Lucas Alexander 0 7 of 36 19% 8 of 37 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:28
Steven Peterson 1 34 of 63 53% 35 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:42
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Lucas Alexander 26 of 101 25% 8 of 67 9 of 18 9 of 16 25 of 99 1 of 2 0 of 0
Steven Peterson 85 of 158 53% 43 of 108 20 of 27 22 of 23 78 of 142 1 of 1 6 of 15
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Lucas Alexander 11 of 34 32% 2 of 18 4 of 6 5 of 10 10 of 32 1 of 2 0 of 0
Steven Peterson 24 of 41 58% 12 of 26 5 of 7 7 of 8 24 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Lucas Alexander 8 of 31 25% 4 of 23 1 of 4 3 of 4 8 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
Steven Peterson 27 of 54 50% 10 of 35 6 of 8 11 of 11 27 of 54 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Lucas Alexander 7 of 36 19% 2 of 26 4 of 8 1 of 2 7 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
Steven Peterson 34 of 63 53% 21 of 47 9 of 12 4 of 4 27 of 47 1 of 1 6 of 15
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Steven Peterson

Angelo picks Peterson, citing his toughness and relentless pressure. He notes that Peterson is never the more skilled fighter but makes up for it with grit. He thinks Peterson will frustrate Alexander, who may not handle the constant forward pressure. However, he says he cannot trust Peterson with his money because he puts himself in danger and could get caught.

"Stephen Peterson's going to be the pick but at no offense to Steve Peterson because this guy's great I can't trust him with my money."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Steven Peterson

Big Brady picks Steven Peterson by submission, calling it a sneaky way to attack the fight. He notes Peterson's ability to get takedowns and his submission skills (42% of wins by sub), though he hasn't submitted anyone in the UFC. Brady thinks Peterson has more ways to win, especially if he gets the fight to the mat, and predicts a third-round submission. He acknowledges Alexander's striking advantage on the feet but favors Peterson's toughness and experience.

Peterson by submission in round 3
"I'm gonna say Peterson by submission I think that could be a sneaky way to look at it"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Lucas Alexander

Cody leans towards Alexander as a dog, citing his kickboxing advantage and physicality. He notes Peterson is a forward-pressure fighter but not high-level, and that Alexander could have more time to work in his comfort zone. He expects a close, possibly split decision, and sees value in the plus money.

Fight goes to decision
"If I needed to squeeze another Underdog I feel like I would take that shot on Lucas Alexander"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 23, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Steven Peterson

Connor also picks Steven Peterson, agreeing with Zane that Alexander is too inexperienced to handle Peterson's relentless pressure. He notes that Peterson's technical flaws don't matter if he just keeps coming, and that Alexander has shown he can be cornered and flustered. Connor says he would not be shocked if Alexander wins by landing a big shot, but he sees Peterson as the more reliable pick given Alexander's rawness.

Same odds commentary as Zane.
"I think I'm going to take Peterson too."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lean picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Steven Peterson

Jacob picks Peterson but is not confident, noting that Peterson's toughness is his main attribute. He thinks Peterson should out-tough Alexander but that Alexander is dangerous and could land a big shot. He says there are better places to put money on this card.

"Stephen Peterson should be the play he should be able to out tough this guy do what he does throw volume in his face."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Lucas Alexander

The host is surprised to see Alexander as an underdog, believing his speed, slick striking, and calf kicking game will be too much for Peterson. He notes Alexander's performance against Jacob Kilburn showed he can pick apart a similar gritty opponent. He expects Alexander to win by decision, as Peterson is tough to put away.

"I expect the speed slick striking in calf kicking game of Lucas Alexander to come through in this matchup and get his hand raised"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Steven Peterson

The Guru picks Peterson, calling it a lock. He criticizes Alexander's lack of finishing ability and poor performance against Britto. He highlights Peterson's durability (only finished once in 2013) and expects a dominant decision win.

"I'm going with Stephen Peterson here... I actually like Stephen Peterson here to drag this into deep Waters have a scrap with Lucas Alexander and win this fight by like 30 27 30-26 decision"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 23, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Steven Peterson

Zane picks Steven Peterson because he sees Lucas Alexander as a raw, undercooked fighter who lacks fight management and is easily overwhelmed by relentless pressure. Peterson is insanely durable and aggressive, and Zane believes his veteran pace and toughness will be too much for Alexander, who has shown he can be backed up and flustered. Zane notes that if Alexander wins, it would prove something he hasn't seen yet, whereas a Peterson win would just be expected.

Odds: Peterson opened at -170, currently -164; Alexander opened at +145, currently +133. Zane thinks the odds are about right.
"I'm kind of inclined to pick Peterson for like the veteran pace fighter pick."
Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 2:02 · UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Araujo · Oct 15, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Joanderson Brito 0 4 of 8 50% 7 of 11 2 of 2 100% 1 0 1:25
Lucas Alexander 0 1 of 2 50% 1 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Joanderson Brito 0 4 of 8 50% 7 of 11 2 of 2 100% 1 0 1:25
Lucas Alexander 0 1 of 2 50% 1 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Joanderson Brito 4 of 8 50% 2 of 5 0 of 0 2 of 3 0 of 4 4 of 4 0 of 0
Lucas Alexander 1 of 2 50% 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Joanderson Brito 4 of 8 50% 2 of 5 0 of 0 2 of 3 0 of 4 4 of 4 0 of 0
Lucas Alexander 1 of 2 50% 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Lucas Alexander vs. Joanderson Brito
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Brito (-350), Alexander (+255)

Round 1
The action ticks up one notch as we move to the featherweight division. After a veritable revolving door of opponents, heavy-handed Brazilian finisher Brito (13-3-1, 1-1 UFC) now squares off against fellow countryman Alexander (7-2, 0-0 UFC) in the latter’s UFC debut. While both are the same age, Brito holds greater high-level experience, having fought up through the LFA to DWCS and then the UFC. Meanwhile, his opponent comes in on a five-fight win streak, with most of those victories coming in Florida-based leagues. The third man in the Octagon is referee Chris Tognoni, and there is a touch of gloves to get things started. Brito immediately starts racing forward, and he wings a low kick that comes up short. Alexander responds with one that lands, but he already finds himself backed up to the cage and ducking a haymaker. Brito bears down on him and loads up on right hands, and he ducks a head kick by a matter of millimeters and allows Alexander to fall to the mat. Brito lifts his man up and slams him down, and then does this a second time when Alexander gets to his knees. Brito knees the thigh a few times before scooping “The Lion” up and dropping him down once more. When Alexander moves back to his feet, Brito jumps on his back to serve as a malicious backpack, while setting up some form of a rear-naked choke.
Brito tightens his legs around the waist and switches his arms to sink his right forearm under the chin. The choke is instantly tight and Brito has plenty of energy to crush it like a vice, and he drags the newcomer from behind down to the ground to make the submission purely academic. Barely one second after they hit the mat, and Alexander taps out frantically from the maneuver, as he would likely go out if the grip remained tight for too much longer.
Tubular work for "Tubarao" Brito, who now posts an even number of knockouts and submissions on his ledger while lifting his finish rate above 85%.

The Official Result
Joanderson Brito def. Lucas Alexander R1 2:02 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 12, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Joanderson Brito

Cody picks Brito confidently, noting he is a powerhouse and coming off a career-best win. He points out that Alexander has missed weight multiple times and is taking the fight on short notice, which could affect his performance. He expects Brito to press forward and score takedowns.

"burrito's got this one so sign me up for Joe Anderson."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 12, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Joanderson Brito

Paul also picks Brito, noting he is a solid prospect and Alexander is a late replacement with questionable credentials. He thinks Brito's aggression and takedowns will be too much, and Alexander may struggle to make weight.

"I'd be surprised if you're picking the other side... Brito is an absolute Powerhouse."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Joanderson Brito

The MMA Guru picks Joanderson Brito by first-round KO, citing his full camp and the short-notice replacement Lucas Alexander. He believes Alexander will be overly aggressive early, which will be his downfall against Brito. He notes that Brito's win over Andre Fili has aged well, and he trusts Brito's power and timing.

prediction: first-round KO
"first round KO for Joe Anderson Brita I really do"
Expert Picks (6)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Lucas Alexander

Angelo picks Lucas Alexander, citing his superior technique, BJJ, and high-level experience. He notes that both fighters have one-punch power but believes Lucas is better everywhere. He mentions the odds at 3-to-1 seem a little wide because Jeka could end it at any moment, but still expects Lucas to win.

Odds comment: 3-to-1 on Lucas seems a little wide
"Lucas Alexander is going to be better here he's just going to be the better fighter he's going to have the same power as Jaa but better technique better BJJ more highlevel experience"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 17, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Lucas Alexander

Big Brady notes that Saragih looked terrible against Anshul Jubilee and that Alexander has heavy kicks, including breaking someone's arm. He thinks Alexander is the much better striker and will break Saragih down with leg kicks, leading to an attritional TKO. He predicts a third-round knockout, noting Saragih is dangerous early but Alexander has never been knocked out.

"I'm going to take Lucas Alexander to win this fight by third round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Lucas Alexander

Cody picks Lucas Alexander confidently, citing his performance against Steve Peterson and Saragih's poor showing against Anheliger. He notes Saragih's one-dimensional striking and poor wrestling. Alexander is stronger, more dynamic, and can win by striking or grappling.

"Lucas Alexander absolutely rolles seems pretty clear to me"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 17, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Lucas Alexander

Alexander is a technical striker with good anticipation and counter striking. He uses calf kicks and accurate punches to pick apart opponents. Saragih is reckless and lacks technical acumen, though he has durability. Alexander will chip away from distance and land big shots, likely winning by decision. Saragih's recklessness could lead to a knockout, but Alexander's power may not finish him.

"give me Lucas Alexander and I think he wins this fight by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Lucas Alexander

Paul picks Alexander, noting Saragih's flat-footed style and poor takedown defense. He believes Alexander's power and grappling will be too much. Paul thinks Saragih's only chance is a puncher's chance, but Alexander is the better fighter.

"I'm gonna take Lucas Alexander"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Lucas Alexander

The MMA Guru picks Lucas Alexander over Jeka Saragih, despite admitting he doubted Alexander early in his career. He criticizes Saragih as a 'diversity hire' who lost in the Road to UFC tournament final but got into the UFC anyway. He notes Alexander's reach and height advantage and expects him to score a decision win by keeping the fight rangy.

"I'm going to go Lucas Alexander... reach advantage, height advantage, going to keep it rangy on the feet, I reckon he'll be able to score his way to a decision win 30-27."