UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig · Nov 18, 2023 · Catchweight (128 lb) · Completed
Prev Fight UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig
Age 29
Height 5' 8"
Reach 69.0"
Weight 125 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 35
Height 5' 9"
Reach 70.0"
Weight 125 lbs.
Stance Switch
Career Averages - Rafael Estevam
2.4 SLpM
39.0% Str. Acc.
3.9 SApM
45.0% Str. Def.
4.91 TD Avg
33.0% TD Acc.
66.0% TD Def.
0.2 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Charles Johnson
4.77 SLpM
49.0% Str. Acc.
4.02 SApM
55.0% Str. Def.
0.51 TD Avg
16.0% TD Acc.
69.0% TD Def.
0.3 Sub. Avg
Rafael Estevam
Moneyline
Caesars -140
KO/TKO
FanDuel +600
Submission
FanDuel +800
Decision
BetWay +150
Charles Johnson
Moneyline
FanDuel +128
KO/TKO
FanDuel +700
Submission
BetWay +1200
Decision
FanDuel +250
Rafael Estevam - Fight History
LOSS vs Ethyn Ewing
KO R3 1:44 · UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan · Apr 04, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ethyn Ewing 1 114 of 197 57% 116 of 200 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:22
Rafael Estevam 0 44 of 185 23% 45 of 186 0 of 8 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ethyn Ewing 0 20 of 47 42% 21 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Rafael Estevam 0 17 of 63 26% 17 of 63 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Ethyn Ewing 0 67 of 109 61% 68 of 110 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Rafael Estevam 0 14 of 79 17% 15 of 80 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Ethyn Ewing 1 27 of 41 65% 27 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Rafael Estevam 0 13 of 43 30% 13 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ethyn Ewing 114 of 197 57% 88 of 168 20 of 21 6 of 8 107 of 187 5 of 8 2 of 2
Rafael Estevam 44 of 185 23% 35 of 165 3 of 5 6 of 15 44 of 184 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ethyn Ewing 20 of 47 42% 16 of 42 1 of 1 3 of 4 17 of 42 2 of 4 1 of 1
Rafael Estevam 17 of 63 26% 13 of 54 1 of 2 3 of 7 17 of 63 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Ethyn Ewing 67 of 109 61% 49 of 89 16 of 17 2 of 3 64 of 105 3 of 4 0 of 0
Rafael Estevam 14 of 79 17% 13 of 74 1 of 2 0 of 3 14 of 78 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Ethyn Ewing 27 of 41 65% 23 of 37 3 of 3 1 of 1 26 of 40 0 of 0 1 of 1
Rafael Estevam 13 of 43 30% 9 of 37 1 of 1 3 of 5 13 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Ethyn Ewing vs. Rafael Estevam (136.5: Missed Weight)
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Ewing (-160); Estevam (+135)

Round 1
Even though the fight happened in November 2025, Ewing (9-2, 1-0 UFC) still has some hype about him for shutting down then-unbeaten Malcolm Wellmaker in a surprise thriller. “The Professor Finesser” stares down another undefeated opponent, this time former flyweight Estevam (14-0, 3-0 UFC). The Brazilian could not be bothered to make weight at this new, higher category, suffering a 20% fine as a not-so-bantamweight. Guarding over the catchweight contest will be referee Chris Tognoni. The fighters elect not to bump fists.
The two are cautious to engage, with only one strike in the first 20 seconds landing—a low kick from the Brazilian. Ewing paws out his jab and is kicked again in the front leg. Estevam kicks from his read leg, and he allows Ewing to swing so he can dodge and counter with a left hand. Estevam keeps working on the front leg, and Ewing kicks him back far heavier. Ewing doubles up on his jab out of range, hopping back from a low kick but not away from a left hook. Estevam spins with a back fist and nearly topples over, and he gathers himself and braces for impact from the American. When Ewing engages, Estevam shoots in for a single. Ewing sprawls, and Estevam redoubles his effort but is unable to secure the takedown. Estevam lets it go and parries a jab, and a shovel uppercut and low kick get through. Estevam ducks and dips to offer out an uppercut, narrowly missing the target. Estevam tries this combination again, and he gets closer but still only manages to strike with an overhand right.
Ewing deftly shuts down the takedown shot that comes, and he takes two punches off the guard and a third on the chin. Estevam leaps out for a flying knee, and Ewing intercepts him on the way up with a knee that bangs into the cup. Estevam lands and protests, and Tognoni calls time. Estevam takes 40 seconds to get his bearings, and he reintroduces himself with a calf kick and a sharp jab. Ewing slides out of the way and pulls back before throwing his punches, with Estevam beating him to the punch with everything but a hard right hand. Estevam staggers back, possibly stunned or at least off-balance, and he shoots in for a takedown and gets sprawled like a pancake. Ewing gets right in his face and lets his head movement keep him safe, busting Estevam in the chops with a few punches. Ewing fearlessly walks his opponent down, staying just out of range from the worst flying at his head. Ewing laughs off a takedown and knocks Estevam to his seat with a flurry of fists, and time expires to save Estevam. Happy as a clam, Ewing shimmies after the horn blares.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ewing
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ewing
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ewing

Round 2
Estevam starts out aggressively, throwing punches and low kicks before shooting for a takedown. Ewing stands him up and knees him flush in the face. Estevam shakes it off and surges forward, unable to pin Ewing down but throwing nonetheless. Ewing dances back from big swings and throws back with accurate blows, bloodying up the Brazilian’s nose and forcing him to shoot awkwardly. Estevam hurls a big punch, and Ewing slips it and jams him in the ribs with a left. Estevam has his back to the wall and takes a clean right hand that shakes him up, and two more big hooks from Ewing pound off his melon. Estevam is throwing back with a vengeance, but Ewing cannot miss. Estevam tries to catch Ewing coming in with an elbow, and Ewing gives him a taste of his own medicine and proceeds to knee him as well. Estevam comes into clinch in hopes of setting up some grappling, and Ewing tosses him aside and boxes him up with a number of jabs. Ewing slips with a crisp uppercut, and Estevam turns away, not a fan of that blow. He goes to the lead leg with kicks, and he is in his flow state at this point.
Estevam peppers Ewing’s guard with punches and takes a hard one on the chin that makes him step back, with the American staying out of the way when Estevam leaps towards him. Ewing’s combinations are quick and pinpoint accurate, as he loops his right hand over the arm of his foe to bang it into Estevam’s temple time and again. Estevam is tough but is taking serious damage, the power on the side of Ewing. Ewing rocks the Brazilian with a bomb of a right hand, and Estevam desperately shoots for a takedown only to get completely shut down. Ewing stalks Estevam down, stumbles him and raises his arms defiantly. Estevam gathers himself and slugs his way forward, but this only opens him up to Ewing’s fluid combos and surprising power. Estevam’s takedown shot is met with a submission trap, and he stands up to take four punches right in the face. Estevam is hanging in there as Ewing rolls downhill on him, with the American swaying and dodging practically everything while putting a beating on the undefeated athlete. The round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ewing
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ewing
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ewing

Round 3
The two meet in the pocket in the center of the cage and proceed to trade hands. Ewing dances on the outer edge of Estevam’s strikes, slipping them and countering while the crowd chants for either “Ethyn” or “Defense.” Ewing walks through anything hurled at him, including a kick to his groin, so that he can further pressure the unbeaten fighter. Ewing checks a kick and goes upstairs with a right hand, and he stumbles his man with a clubbing right hook. Estevam gathers his thoughts, albeit fleeting at this point, and backs himself to the fence in hopes of countering off of it.
Ewing does not let him do it, instead boxing Estevam up with a magnificent combination of punches. In his element, Ewing concludes his combo with a devastating left to the liver, and Estevam folds like a flan in a cupboard, falling to his back totally defeated. As Tognoni sprints in to stop the fight, Ewing rains down a single standing-to-ground crushing-yet-unnecessary hammerfist
, and that’s all the work he needs to put in tonight. That marks two undefeated opponents, two victories for the rising star Ewing, who appears to be one to watch going forward in the talent-stacked bantamweight division.

The Official Result
Ethyn Ewing def. Rafael Estevam R3 1:44 via KO (Punch to the Body)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 29, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Rafael Estevam

Angelo picks Rafael Estevam, citing recency bias in the line. He notes Estevam is a high-pressure grappler with relentless takedowns, while Ethyn Ewing's takedown defense is unproven. He believes Estevam will overwhelm Ewing with wrestling and control. Angelo mentions he bet on Estevam and would be shocked if he doesn't flip to favorite.

Angelo says 'I bet on Estam here.'
"Estav is the pick. I bet on Estam here."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Mar 30, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Rafael Estevam

Big Brady picks Rafael Estevam as an underdog. He notes Estevam is a dominant grappler who takes opponents down and controls them for entire fights, averaging over six takedowns per 15 minutes. He thinks Ewing can be taken down and that Estevam's cardio may improve at bantamweight. He acknowledges Ewing's hype but believes Estevam's style is a tough matchup.

Estevam by decision
"I'm leaning Estevam here. A lot of money is coming in on Ethan Ewing. And I could see a path like stuff the takedowns, but that's going to be hard."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 2, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Ethyn Ewing

Cody picks Ewing because Estevam's grappling-heavy style is boring and may not score well with judges trending towards damage. He notes Estevam's weight misses and move up in weight, and believes Ewing's scrambling and striking will earn a decision.

"I got Ethan E-wing. The money line's close enough. I I would think that Rafael Aston being that he's undefeated in the UFC and a little more experience and Brazilian guy that that he should have maybe been the favorite, …"
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2026 (fight day)
Ethyn Ewing

The host likes Ewing because he is more well-rounded and has multiple paths to victory, while Estevam only has one path (grappling). Ewing showed great cardio and takedown defense in his debut, and Estevam's inefficient wrestling style leads to fatigue. The host caps Ewing at 65% chance to win, seeing value at -148.

Ewing is the only pre-fight bet on the card.
"So yeah, I like Euan in this matchup and hopefully he will come through for us."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Mar 30, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Ethyn Ewing

James picks Ethyn Ewing as the underdog, praising his boxing combinations, cardio, and ability to extend strikes in the pocket. He believes Ewing will weather Estevam's early wrestling, win rounds two and three, and potentially secure a late TKO. He notes Estevam's cardio issues and weight cut struggles, and thinks Ewing's calf kicks and defensive improvements will be key. He predicts a round three TKO.

Round 3 TKO prediction
"I have Ethan Ewing to win this fight via round three TKO."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Apr 1, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Ethyn Ewing

James picks Ethyn Ewing as his 'Hammer of the Week' moneyline bet. He believes Ewing's striking, cardio, and ability to extend combinations will overcome Estevam's wrestling. He expects Ewing to win, possibly by finish in later rounds as Estevam tires.

Ethan Ewin round 2 (+650 projected), Ethan Ewin round 3 (+1200 projected)
"I still like Ethan Ewing at this price... I think Ethan Ewing gets it done for us this weekend with a bang, emphatically, maybe even via finish."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 31, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Rafael Estevam

The host believes the hype on Ewing is driving the line, but Estevam's grappling will be the difference. He notes Estevam's 14-0 record, ability to take down dangerous strikers, and submission threat. He expects Estevam to get the fight to the ground and submit Ewing, referencing Ewing's previous submission loss. He took a shot on Estevam at plus money.

Estevam by submission
"I expect Astan to get to his grappling positions. I expect him to probably even pull off a submission here."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 2, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Ethyn Ewing

Paul sides with Ewing, noting Estevam's style is ill-suited for a move up in weight. He expects Ewing to stuff takedowns and win on the feet, possibly via live betting.

"Yeah, and I I I've been waiting for the Estav train to kind of fall off the tracks. So, I will side with uh with Yuing here as well."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2026 (fight day)
Ethyn Ewing

The MMA Guru picks Ethyn Ewing, noting his impressive performance on short notice against Malcolm Wellmaker and his full camp advantage. He believes Ewing's grappling, cardio, and volume will overwhelm Rafael Estevam, who missed weight and faces pressure. He predicts a third-round finish.

Third-round finish predicted
"I'm going to go with Ethan Ewing. Full camp, got to do better than two days' notice."
CANCEL vs Allan Nascimento
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Oct 27, 2025 (5 days before fight)

Lucrative James mentions this fight in the intro as a grapplers' delight but does not provide a breakdown or pick for it. He does not discuss the matchup in detail later in the transcript.

"We also have an absolute grapplers delight at flyweight. We have Alan Nasamento taking on Raphael Estan."
WIN vs Felipe Bunes
DEC R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Taira vs. Park · Aug 02, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rafael Estevam 0 33 of 70 47% 128 of 204 5 of 9 55% 0 0 10:42
Felipe Bunes 0 26 of 56 46% 38 of 75 0 of 1 0% 2 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rafael Estevam 0 8 of 19 42% 12 of 26 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:48
Felipe Bunes 0 7 of 14 50% 8 of 16 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:03
2 Rafael Estevam 0 17 of 35 48% 47 of 83 2 of 4 50% 0 0 4:01
Felipe Bunes 0 9 of 17 52% 13 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Rafael Estevam 0 8 of 16 50% 69 of 95 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:53
Felipe Bunes 0 10 of 25 40% 17 of 33 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rafael Estevam 33 of 70 47% 22 of 50 5 of 14 6 of 6 25 of 57 1 of 1 7 of 12
Felipe Bunes 26 of 56 46% 15 of 39 5 of 11 6 of 6 25 of 54 1 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rafael Estevam 8 of 19 42% 1 of 9 2 of 5 5 of 5 7 of 17 1 of 1 0 of 1
Felipe Bunes 7 of 14 50% 1 of 6 2 of 4 4 of 4 7 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Rafael Estevam 17 of 35 48% 13 of 25 3 of 9 1 of 1 10 of 24 0 of 0 7 of 11
Felipe Bunes 9 of 17 52% 6 of 13 2 of 3 1 of 1 8 of 16 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Rafael Estevam 8 of 16 50% 8 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0 8 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
Felipe Bunes 10 of 25 40% 8 of 20 1 of 4 1 of 1 10 of 24 0 of 1 0 of 0
WIN vs Jesus Aguilar
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues · Feb 15, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rafael Estevam 0 11 of 30 36% 60 of 96 11 of 19 57% 0 0 9:22
Jesus Aguilar 0 35 of 87 40% 41 of 95 2 of 5 40% 2 0 1:14
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rafael Estevam 0 2 of 2 100% 23 of 28 5 of 6 83% 0 0 3:54
Jesus Aguilar 0 2 of 2 100% 3 of 3 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:30
2 Rafael Estevam 0 1 of 2 50% 29 of 42 5 of 7 71% 0 0 4:30
Jesus Aguilar 0 5 of 10 50% 5 of 11 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:00
3 Rafael Estevam 0 8 of 26 30% 8 of 26 1 of 6 16% 0 0 0:58
Jesus Aguilar 0 28 of 75 37% 33 of 81 2 of 4 50% 0 0 0:44
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rafael Estevam 11 of 30 36% 6 of 20 5 of 10 0 of 0 9 of 28 1 of 1 1 of 1
Jesus Aguilar 35 of 87 40% 26 of 75 4 of 5 5 of 7 31 of 76 3 of 10 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rafael Estevam 2 of 2 100% 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1
Jesus Aguilar 2 of 2 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 2 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Rafael Estevam 1 of 2 50% 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jesus Aguilar 5 of 10 50% 4 of 9 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 7 2 of 2 1 of 1
3 Rafael Estevam 8 of 26 30% 4 of 17 4 of 9 0 of 0 8 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jesus Aguilar 28 of 75 37% 21 of 65 3 of 4 4 of 6 27 of 67 1 of 8 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jesus Santos Aguilar vs. Rafael Estevam
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Estevam (-360), Aguilar (+285)

Round 1
A pair of fighters separated by about five months and five inches of height come to blows in the on-fire flyweight category. While he debuted with a win over Charles Johnson, inactivity has plagued Estevam (12-0, 1-0 UFC) as that victory came in November 2023 and he has not fought since. Since then, Aguilar (11-2, 3-1 UFC) has competed and prevailed on two separate occasions, giving him momentum leading up to their engagement. The third man in the Octagon is referee Chris Tognoni, who observes the sporting clap of hands from the fighters to get going. Aguilar says hello with a low kick, and he charges in with a looping left that allows him to close the distance. Estevam defends the throw setup and prevents Aguilar from tossing him, but the ensuing grappling results in Estevam somehow taking Aguilar’s back. The two jockey for position and threaten with submission setups, and Aguilar sells out for a takedown and winds up pulling Estevam on top of him instead. Estevam smothers from half guard, staying well busy enough to stave off Tognoni. The Brazilian fighter loops his foe’s legs beneath his to further trap him, but Aguilar still times an explosion to power back to his feet. Aguilar grabs hold of a guillotine choke and jumps for it, and he hooks his leg around the back but is unable to fasten the other. “Macapa” calmly works his way out of the sub and he remains on top, following Aguilar every time he tries to scramble. When Aguilar gets to his feet, Estevam has him from behind, and he hunts for a high back ride to drag his man down. Aguilar tries to shoot in, but Estevam controls him until the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Estevam
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Estevam
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Estevam

Round 2
Aguilar comes out of his corner like his hair is on fire, with a pair of looping hooks leading into a jump knee. Estevam catches the latter and tries to do something with it, but he lets it go and dives after a takedown. Aguilar is on his seat when defending it, with Estevam quick to lace the legs once more. Estevam sits up and the two slug it out from a seated position, with Aguilar’s back stuck against the wall as he spams elbows and punches with little on them. Estevam wrestles Aguilar back down and dings him with uppercuts, and every time he opens up, Aguilar fights to escape. Tognoni asks for more activity, and Aguilar stands up. Estevam chucks him back to the mat like a side of beef, and Aguilar climbs up, circles around and jumps for a guillotine choke. Estevam stuffs it and forces a 50/50 position, with Aguilar complaining that his glove is being grabbed. Estevam takes his foe’s back and clubs him in the side of the head, hitting a mat return when Aguilar fruitlessly works his way upright once more. Aguilar clings to any low-percentage move he can search for, while Estevam is running a wrestling clinic on him. Estevam wraps up an arm-triangle choke, and he jumps from one side to the other to complete the maneuver. Aguilar turns to his stomach to prevent the submission from completing, and the round closes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Estevam
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Estevam
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Estevam

Round 3
Aguilar is the fast aggressor in the last round, putting hooks behind kicks behind more hooks. Estevam slows his foe down with a slew of front kicks, and Aguilar shrugs them off and charges with looping strikes before pursuing a takedown. Estevam shakes out of the tie-up, and Aguilar walks him down kicking him high and low. Aguilar punches his way into a level change, and Estevam stonewalls him and threatens with his own single. Aguilar stifles it, and the two break apart. Aguilar clubs his opponent with power punches that stun him, and he times a perfect knee when Estevam shoots on him. Aguilar lets him up and starts laying into the unbeaten fighter with massive swinging strikes. Aguilar throws himself off-balance, but he has done some solid damage and likely rocked Estevam on at least one occasion. Estevam keeps a stiff upper lip and is ready for counters, but Aguilar’s aggression is starting to give him issues. Estevam just dodges a huge left hook in time, and Aguilar sits down on a low kick and lunges forward with a jab. Aguilar punches his way into a takedown, where he puts Estevam on the mat but does not establish top control. Instead, Aguilar lets him up and punches him a few times, and he lets Estevam shoot so he can defend with a guillotine. Aguilar climbs on the back—an issue plaguing him several times tonight—and slides off almost immediately. Estevam relishes this opportunity so he can slow Aguilar down, with his sights likely more on surviving than actually trying to put Aguilar away. A few more lather-rinse-repeat takedowns and mat returns come from the Brazilian until time expires.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Aguilar (29-28 Estevam)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Aguilar (29-28 Estevam)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Aguilar (29-28 Estevam)

The Official Result
Rafael Estevam def. Jesus Santos Aguilar via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Rafael Estevam

Angelo is confident in Rafael Estevam, noting his high-pressure grappling and relentless takedowns. He acknowledges that Jesus Aguilar is a guillotine specialist but believes Estevam's offensive wrestling and Jiu-Jitsu defense will neutralize that threat. He trusts Estevam's cardio and thinks the odds are appropriate.

"haam is the pretty confident pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Rafael Estevam

Big Brady picks Estevam by second-round submission, citing his dominant wrestling and ground game. Aguilar is a guillotine specialist but has 0% takedown defense and defensive holes. Estevam must be cautious of the guillotine but should get takedowns easily and eventually submit Aguilar.

submission in round 2
"I like estom here I'm going to say he Subs Aguilar in the second round"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2025 (fight day)
Rafael Estevam

Estevam is undefeated and this is a great opportunity for him to get back on track. He will get Aguilar's back and find a rear-naked choke finish within two rounds.

Estevam by submission, inside 2 rounds
"I think Estevam will get his back eventually and find that rear naked choke and force him to tap within two rounds."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Rafael Estevam

The MMA Guru picks Rafael Estevam over Jesus Aguilar, impressed by Estevam's grappling against Charles Johnson. He notes Aguilar has won in the UFC except for his debut loss, but believes Estevam's chain wrestling and ability to manipulate Aguilar's body will secure at least two rounds via grappling.

over 2.5 takedowns for Estevam (PrizePicks)
"I'm GNA go with Rafael estam getting this one done"
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig · Nov 18, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rafael Estevam 0 72 of 109 66% 116 of 161 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:43
Charles Johnson 0 18 of 43 41% 35 of 77 3 of 22 13% 1 0 9:23
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rafael Estevam 0 7 of 9 77% 34 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:20
Charles Johnson 0 8 of 18 44% 17 of 37 2 of 4 50% 0 0 3:49
2 Rafael Estevam 0 11 of 20 55% 20 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:07
Charles Johnson 0 1 of 7 14% 8 of 20 1 of 7 14% 1 0 3:55
3 Rafael Estevam 0 54 of 80 67% 62 of 88 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:16
Charles Johnson 0 9 of 18 50% 10 of 20 0 of 11 0% 0 0 1:39
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rafael Estevam 72 of 109 66% 38 of 69 27 of 33 7 of 7 53 of 80 18 of 26 1 of 3
Charles Johnson 18 of 43 41% 10 of 28 6 of 12 2 of 3 11 of 31 3 of 5 4 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rafael Estevam 7 of 9 77% 0 of 2 1 of 1 6 of 6 1 of 2 6 of 7 0 of 0
Charles Johnson 8 of 18 44% 3 of 9 3 of 6 2 of 3 5 of 13 0 of 0 3 of 5
2 Rafael Estevam 11 of 20 55% 8 of 15 3 of 5 0 of 0 8 of 13 2 of 4 1 of 3
Charles Johnson 1 of 7 14% 1 of 6 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 4 0 of 1 1 of 2
3 Rafael Estevam 54 of 80 67% 30 of 52 23 of 27 1 of 1 44 of 65 10 of 15 0 of 0
Charles Johnson 9 of 18 50% 6 of 13 3 of 5 0 of 0 6 of 14 3 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Nov 12, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Rafael Estevam

Angelo picks Rafael Estevam with low confidence, citing Charles Johnson's recent lack of urgency and tendency to not do enough to impress judges. He notes Estevam's high-pressure grappling and relentless takedown attempts, though his takedowns are sloppy. He expects a decision and thinks Estevam will edge it.

"I'm GNA go ra rafhael estam here for the win low confidence pick here it's going to come down to the judges I don't see a finish"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Nov 17, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Rafael Estevam

Big Brady thinks people overrate Charles Johnson, noting he's been taken down frequently by wrestlers like Cody Durden and Mohammad Kayev. He believes Estevam is a solid wrestler who will stick to Johnson like glue and grind out a decision. However, he acknowledges this is Estevam's toughest fight by far and the decision could be close due to damage vs control arguments. He's staying away from betting on this fight.

"I think estom is going to kind of stick to this guy Like Glue I don't think he's going to give him any room to breathe and I think estom is going to kind of grind out a decision here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Rafael Estevam

Cody picks Rafael Estevam, citing his wrestling and takedown ability. He notes that Charles Johnson gives up takedowns frequently. Estevam can chain wrestle and control Johnson. Cody also mentions a PrizePicks play on Estevam over 2.5 takedowns.

Cody mentions a PrizePicks play on Estevam over 2.5 takedowns.
"eston will be the pick on the batting side for me"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 17, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Rafael Estevam

Estevam has the grappling advantage and cardio edge to control the fight. He will dictate the pace with relentless grappling and clinch control, neutralizing Johnson's volume striking. Estevam's takedown defense and get-ups are solid, but he gets pinned in bad spots. Estevam wins by decision, as he lacks finishing ability but can outwork Johnson.

"I believe minus 150 is a short line considering that estan will likely have the grappling advantage in this matchup he also has the cardio Edge which will allow him to set the pace and keep pushing on Johnson"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Nov 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Charles Johnson

Paul initially leans towards Estevam but switches to Charles Johnson as an underdog. He notes Johnson's excellent get-up game and cardio advantage. Paul thinks if Estevam's debut nerves or weight cut issues arise, Johnson can out-strike him. He admits it's a risky pick and will wait for weigh-ins.

Paul mentions the fight going the distance as a possible play.
"I'm going to take Charles Johnson Underdog"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Charles Johnson

The MMA Guru picks Charles Johnson over Rafael Estevam, noting that Estevam's Contender Series win came against a fighter with a padded record and that Estevam relied on top position after escaping submissions. He highlights Johnson's experience against tough UFC opponents like Muhammad Mokaev, where Johnson out-struck Mokaev but was out-grappled. He believes Johnson's takedown defense, cardio, and ability to break Estevam in the third round will lead to a win.

"I'm going to go with Charles Johnson in this early prelim opener... I think he's going to get the win against Rafael Estevam because he's more experienced, he's got the cardio, he's got the takedown defense, and I reckon he …"
Charles Johnson - Fight History
SCHED vs Asu Almabayev
WIN vs Bruno Silva
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · Mar 14, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Charles Johnson 0 85 of 162 52% 110 of 189 0 of 6 0% 0 0 0:06
Bruno Silva 0 73 of 136 53% 101 of 171 0 of 8 0% 0 0 3:43
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Charles Johnson 0 18 of 34 52% 18 of 36 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Bruno Silva 0 12 of 19 63% 15 of 22 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:53
2 Charles Johnson 0 33 of 60 55% 38 of 65 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Bruno Silva 0 27 of 53 50% 37 of 66 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:21
3 Charles Johnson 0 34 of 68 50% 54 of 88 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:06
Bruno Silva 0 34 of 64 53% 49 of 83 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:29
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Charles Johnson 85 of 162 52% 43 of 101 30 of 46 12 of 15 61 of 132 24 of 30 0 of 0
Bruno Silva 73 of 136 53% 52 of 106 14 of 21 7 of 9 71 of 131 2 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Charles Johnson 18 of 34 52% 7 of 18 7 of 10 4 of 6 11 of 26 7 of 8 0 of 0
Bruno Silva 12 of 19 63% 6 of 11 2 of 4 4 of 4 12 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Charles Johnson 33 of 60 55% 17 of 37 10 of 16 6 of 7 29 of 56 4 of 4 0 of 0
Bruno Silva 27 of 53 50% 18 of 39 6 of 9 3 of 5 27 of 52 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Charles Johnson 34 of 68 50% 19 of 46 13 of 20 2 of 2 21 of 50 13 of 18 0 of 0
Bruno Silva 34 of 64 53% 28 of 56 6 of 8 0 of 0 32 of 60 2 of 4 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Charles Johnson vs. Bruno Silva
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Johnson (-200); Silva (+170)

Round 1
Keith Peterson is the referee. Silva with an inside low kick early. Johnson shoots behind a punch. Silva defends and they’re in the clinch. Johnson lands a hook on the break. Johnson fakes a shot behind a left. Johnson with a front kick. The American shoots from long distance and Silva defends easily. Silva shoves his foe into the fence. Silva backs off. A right lands for Johnson, who follows with a leg kick. A sharp right connects for the Brazilian. Silva kicks the body. Johnson appears to be bothered by the pressure. Silva clinches again and locks his hands. Johnson lands an elbow in close quaters and Silva backs off. Silva lands in an exchange. They trade low kicks. Silva with a right as Johnson moves forward. Johnson partially lands a high kick. Johnson mixes in a low kick and a front kick. Silva answers by kicking the body. Silva keeps the pressure on late in the round.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Johnson
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Johnson
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Johnson

Round 2
Johnson kicks the body and they trade in the pocket. Silva blocks a head kick. Silva is pressuring and Johnson is forced to defend a takedown. Johnson lands a knee and shoves his foe away. A jab lands for Johnson before Silva shoots. Johnson denies the takedown and the flyweights clinch against the fence. Silva backs off and Johnson lands a combination. A kick by Silva lands below the belt and time is called. Johnson is ready to go right away. They trade low kicks. Silva again looks for the takedown, shoving Johnson into the fence. Johnson lands a knee before they separate. Johson lands a kick and Silva counters. A straight left gets through for Johnson. Silva clinches behind an uppercut and they break quickly. Johnson fires a high kcik, but it doesn’t land clean. Another uppercut for Silva, who clinches with his opponent again. Johnson lands a short elbow in close. Silva lands a combination against the fence. A body kick lands for Johnson. The flyweights clash heads in the clinch and Johnson seemed to get the worst of it. Time is called. Silva fires a front kick and it lands low. It’s the second low blow of the round, and Johnson is in more pain than he was from the first foul. No point is taken, however. Johnson grabs a leg but lets it go. Silva with a body kick before the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Johnson
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Johnson
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Johnson

Round 3
Johnson catches a kick and lets the leg go. Johnson lands a left and they clinch. Inside leg kick for Johnson, and they clinch in the center of the cage. Silva shoves Johnson into the fence. Silva drops low in pursuit of the takedown, but Johnson defends well. Jonson jabs and they trae in close quarters. Both men land before the flyweights clinch. They battle for position before separating. This time Johnson initiates the clinch. Silva lands a combination at range and he’s pressuring Johnson, who is in defense mode. Silva ties up with his opponent against the cage. Johnson denies a takedown attempt. Johnson with a high kick on the break. Silva tries a spinning back elbow. Johnson with kicks and a right hand in hopes of creating space. Silva closes the distance again, shoving Johnson into the fence. He briefly gets the American down, but he’s up in short order. Silva moves in and lands an uppercut before clinching. They battle it out in the clinch, and Johnson lands a nice knee. Silva moves forward and goes back to the uppercut. Jonson responds with a slashing elbow. Silva keeps moving forward. but Johnson is landing plenty of offense. Both men are slugging it out in the waning moments of the fight. Johnson is finding the mark quite often. Another elbow lands for Johnson. They trade right up until the final horn, with Silva getting in a few more shots.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Johnson (30-27 Johnson)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Johnson (30-27 Johnson)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Johnson (30-27 Johnson)

The Official Result
Charles Johnson def. Bruno Silva via Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 30-27) R3 5:00
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Mar 8, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Charles Johnson

Angelo picks Charles Johnson but admits nervousness due to Bruno Silva's one-punch knockout power. He notes Johnson's excellent footwork, hand speed, and cardio, and believes if Johnson gets going early, he can avoid the big shot and win a decision. He acknowledges Johnson has been knocked out before but thinks his high IQ will prevail.

"Charles Johnson is going to be the pick. I'm a little nervous."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Mar 9, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Charles Johnson

Big Brady picks Charles Johnson to win by third-round knockout, but expresses wariness due to Johnson's recent knockout loss and chin concerns. He likes the stylistic matchup, noting Silva's front-loaded power and tendency to fade, but worries Johnson might get knocked out early. He calls Johnson inconsistent.

"give me Charles Johnson to win this fight by third round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 11, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Bruno Silva

Cody picks Bruno Silva as a dog, citing his wrestling, power, and durability. He notes Johnson's takedown defense issues and recent knockout loss. He thinks Silva can win by decision or submission.

"Bruno Silva's could be primed to pull off an upset here for sure."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Charles Johnson

Connor also picks Charles Johnson, emphasizing that Bruno Silva lacks the ability to adjust strategically, while Johnson can figure out his opponent as the fight progresses. He notes that Silva's wins come from opponents making the same mistakes, which Johnson does not do. Connor sees Johnson's adaptability as the key factor.

Silva opened at +145, currently +160; Johnson opened at -170, currently -185
"I think the, the, I'm going to go with Johnson as well. It's, it's really unclear to me, honestly. Like I, I, I think either guy could go out, but it's essentially like ever present danger from Bruno Silva versus …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Mar 8, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Charles Johnson

James picks Charles Johnson to win by decision, but expresses concern about Johnson's quick return after a knockout loss. He notes Johnson's superior cardio, volume, and tools, but worries about his durability and potential recklessness. He believes Johnson is the better fighter overall but is uncertain how he will approach the fight.

"I definitely going to pick Charles Johnson here."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 10, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Charles Johnson

The host picks Johnson to win by decision, expecting him to outclass Silva on the feet. He highlights Johnson's reach advantage, defensive grappling, and ability to get back to his feet quickly. He believes Johnson's striking will be too much for Silva, and that Silva's power and grappling won't be enough to overcome Johnson's technical edge.

"I think Johnson should be able to stay away from that power. I think he picks Bruno Silva apart."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 11, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Bruno Silva

Paul picks Bruno Silva, noting he bets him every fight. He likes his wrestling and power, and thinks he can outgrapple Johnson. He expects a close fight but Silva has value at plus money.

"I pretty much bet Bruno Silva every single fight. I don't see any reason to stop now."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2026 (fight day)
Charles Johnson

The Guru picks Charles Johnson, believing he will walk down Bruno Silva as the fight progresses. He notes Johnson's size advantage (5'9" vs 5'4") and reach, and that Silva fights in bursts and lacks consistent finishing ability. He predicts a TKO in the second round.

Prediction: second round TKO
"I'm going to go with Charles Johnson by TKO in the second round."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Charles Johnson

Zane picks Charles Johnson, citing Johnson's ability to adjust and evolve during fights, unlike Bruno Silva who tends to make the same mistakes repeatedly. He notes that Silva's wins come against fighters who repeat errors, while Johnson adapts and finds solutions. Zane acknowledges Silva's danger but believes Johnson's flexibility gives him the edge.

Silva opened at +145, currently +160; Johnson opened at -170, currently -185
"I'm still going to pick Johnson. I don't think that I'm, I think Perez is always capable of pulling out performances like that in Paris is an ancient either."
LOSS vs Alex Perez
KO R1 3:16 · UFC 324 · Jan 24, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alex Perez 2 39 of 75 52% 55 of 94 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
Charles Johnson 0 8 of 25 32% 8 of 25 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alex Perez 2 39 of 75 52% 55 of 94 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
Charles Johnson 0 8 of 25 32% 8 of 25 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alex Perez 39 of 75 52% 27 of 60 9 of 10 3 of 5 33 of 67 4 of 6 2 of 2
Charles Johnson 8 of 25 32% 4 of 14 3 of 9 1 of 2 8 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alex Perez 39 of 75 52% 27 of 60 9 of 10 3 of 5 33 of 67 4 of 6 2 of 2
Charles Johnson 8 of 25 32% 4 of 14 3 of 9 1 of 2 8 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Charles Johnson vs. Alex Perez (128.5: Missed Weight)
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Johnson (-205), Perez (+170)

Round 1
All UFC fights stateside will plug on under the Paramount+ streaming service, so the distinction between early prelims and the “ESPN” or “Fox Sports” prelims is less significant than before. Former UFC Fight Pass maven Ant Evans suggested the breakdown of cards shift to the main card—no change there—the undercard, where the four-fight prelim slot prior to the main card is placed; and any bout before those nine should be considered a prelim. Nevertheless, the action continues in a catchweight affair as the skidding Perez (25-10, 7-6 UFC) failed to make the flyweight limit by two and a half pounds. A quarter of his purse goes to “InnerG” Johnson (18-7, 7-5 UFC), whose unique hairstyle is starting to have a mind of its own. The athletes will be officiated by referee Jason Herzog, and Perez offers his foe an apologetic glove touch that is accepted.
Perez darts straight to the center of the cage, where he tracks Johnson down and parries a body kick to race towards him. Johnson dings him with a right hand and slides out of the way to reset. Perez goes wide on a right hand, and he nearly gets his chin checked with a head kick. Johnson checks a few leg kicks and stays right before Perez, circling on the outside while Perez walks straight towards him. A Perez barrage comes up short, although a second effort does clip Johnson on the chin. Johnson fires back with a high kick, and Perez unloads with a vicious left hand that stuns Johnson and sets him down. Johnson pulls the cage to stand back up, still badly rocked, and he stands in front of Perez as if he wants to bang it out. Perez has no fear, and he drives a few knees into his jaw that hurt him once more. Johnson takes a right hand on the chin that shakes him up and forces him to bounce off the fencing to keep his feet about him, and Perez is all over him.
Perez marches down “InnerG” with impunity, and Johnson is being held up by the cage when Perez blasts him. One more knockdown is registered by Perez, and Johnson drops to his knees to desperately shoot. Perez takes anything Johnson offers and walks through it to tear in to the damaged fighter who has fought back to his feet again.
When Johnson lifts up an anticipatory knee, Perez loads up on a left hand and sends Johnson careening to the canvas for the umpteenth time, and Herzog has seen more than enough and waves things off.
Johnson still gets up on autopilot and runs towards Perez as Perez has walked away to celebrate his handiwork, and he even gets hold of Perez’ leg when Perez is trying to climb the cage wall. Herzog manages to cool Johnson down, who was damaged and in a bad way for much more than a minute. This is a crucial victory for Perez, who had only gotten his hand raised once in his last six outings. It is a bit of a tough break for Perez, because while he won and likely staved off a pink slip, his missing weight makes him eligible for a finish bonus. It takes champion Joshua Van mere moments to post on social media taunting the defeated Johnson, who laughs off any chance at a rematch.

The Official Result
Alex Perez def. Charles Johnson R1 3:16 via TKO (Punch)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Jan 18, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Alex Perez

Angelo picks Alex Perez despite his four-fight losing streak, arguing the losses are to elite fighters and he was winning against Asu Almabaev before a mistake. He praises Perez's striking, low kicks, and wrestling. He notes Charles Johnson is a friend of the show but believes Perez can pull off the upset. He is very low confidence, rating it 51 out of 100.

This might be a spectacular plus three and a half. If he stays as big of an underdog as he is now, a spectacular plus three and a half bet. ... Charles Johnson's notably a slow starter. So if he takes his time and he doesn't get after it and Alex kind of stays in his face, pushes the pace a little bit, he'll definitely win a round. I don't definitely don't see him getting finished. So plus three and a half bet is likely the way I'm going to go here.
"I think Alex Perez can pull this off. He is freaking good. He's good. ... On a scale of one to 100, I am picking Alex Perez at 51."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2026 (9 days before fight)
Charles Johnson

Big Brady notes Perez finds ways to lose, often getting finished when he's winning. He expects Perez to win round one but fade as Johnson works into the fight. He predicts Johnson will finish Perez, likely by submission, as Perez has been submitted many times.

Johnson by submission
"I'm gonna take Charles Johnson here. I think he actually finishes Alex Perez. When Perez is losing fights, he's getting finished more often than not."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 21, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Charles Johnson

Cody picks Charles Johnson, citing Perez's poor cardio and tendency to make mistakes. He notes Johnson's improved takedown defense and striking volume, and believes Johnson will win the later rounds. Cody sees Johnson as a live underdog and expects him to win by decision or late stoppage.

"Johnson's no spring chicken. Like he's also 34 years old at flyaway. It's a little bit older. But the mileage, the injuries, it's it's energy Johnson for me. So I I got Charlie to get it done."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 23, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Charles Johnson

Connor questions whether Alex Perez is actually a good flyweight, noting his record of 1 win in 6 fights over 5 years. He sees Perez as a bully on the front foot who lacks durability and defensive striking. Johnson, on the other hand, is clicking better, finding his timing earlier, and has a persistent, awkward style that can frustrate opponents. Connor believes Johnson can survive Perez's hot start and take over, possibly getting a finish.

"I think i'm gonna pick him here to be alex perez because what we are seeing is that charles johnson is clicking better and better."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jan 8, 2026 (16 days before fight)
Charles Johnson

Daniel Vreeland picks Charles Johnson to finish Alex Perez. He notes that Perez has lost five of his last six and has questionable heart and fight IQ. Vreeland believes Johnson's slow-starting style matches up well against Perez, who tends to fade. He predicts Johnson will find the chin or neck of Perez for a finish.

"I think Charles Johnson's going to come out here and finish Alex Perez."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jan 14, 2026 (10 days before fight)
Charles Johnson

James picks Johnson, citing his superior striking, cardio, and durability. He notes Perez often gets finished and that Johnson is more locked into MMA. He predicts a finish, possibly by submission or knockout.

"I think he's a much better striker than Alex Perez. I really do."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 20, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Alex Perez

The host picks Perez as an underdog, citing his forward pressure, leg kicks, and gas tank. He believes Perez can dictate the pace and outwork Johnson, who can be gunshy. He notes Perez's recent losses are to high-level competition and sees value at +175. He predicts Perez by decision or knockout.

Perez by decision or knockout
"I love him as an underdog at plus 175. This is a no-brainer shot to take on Perez."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 21, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Charles Johnson

Paul agrees with Cody, emphasizing Johnson's improvements and Perez's bad luck. He notes Johnson's knockout power and volume, and believes Perez's cardio will fail him. Paul likes Johnson on the money line and also considers the knockout prop.

Charles Johnson by knockout
"Charles Johnson by like by knockout isn't too bad of a look. I don't think he's like plus 500 or up I would take probably."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 23, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Charles Johnson

The MMA Guru picks Charles Johnson, citing his win over Joshua Van and his range advantage. He notes that Johnson's uppercut game will be effective against Perez's head-tucking hooks. He predicts a close decision, possibly with Perez having a good third round.

decision
"I'm going to go with Charles Johnson getting this one done by close decision."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 23, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Charles Johnson

Zane agrees with Connor, noting that Perez's wrestling control time is often minimal and that he walks into danger. Johnson has a great flow and timing, and his ability to pressure and exhaust opponents is key. Zane also mentions that Johnson knocked out the flyweight champion and has a Bobby Green-like quality. He thinks Johnson can survive Perez's early pressure and win.

"I think johnson's going to be really annoying for him to fight. Johnson's like visibly not scared he's yeah, he likes for you to come forward and chase him."
KO R2 4:35 · UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · Aug 23, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Charles Johnson 1 44 of 81 54% 52 of 89 1 of 5 20% 0 0 0:32
Lone'er Kavanagh 0 59 of 120 49% 60 of 121 1 of 2 50% 1 1 0:59
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Charles Johnson 0 14 of 25 56% 14 of 25 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:10
Lone'er Kavanagh 0 36 of 65 55% 37 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Charles Johnson 1 30 of 56 53% 38 of 64 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:22
Lone'er Kavanagh 0 23 of 55 41% 23 of 55 1 of 2 50% 1 1 0:59
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Charles Johnson 44 of 81 54% 18 of 49 6 of 10 20 of 22 37 of 71 4 of 6 3 of 4
Lone'er Kavanagh 59 of 120 49% 32 of 83 21 of 26 6 of 11 53 of 111 6 of 9 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Charles Johnson 14 of 25 56% 3 of 11 2 of 4 9 of 10 14 of 24 0 of 1 0 of 0
Lone'er Kavanagh 36 of 65 55% 17 of 37 14 of 18 5 of 10 34 of 63 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Charles Johnson 30 of 56 53% 15 of 38 4 of 6 11 of 12 23 of 47 4 of 5 3 of 4
Lone'er Kavanagh 23 of 55 41% 15 of 46 7 of 8 1 of 1 19 of 48 4 of 7 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Aug 17, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Lone'er Kavanagh

Angelo picks Lone'er Kavanagh but is hesitant, noting that Charles Johnson is a friend of the show and a good fighter. He praises Kavanagh's speed, power, and ability to transition to wrestling instantly. He thinks the odds are too wide and that Johnson is not a 2-to-1 underdog. He says he'll be rooting for Johnson but thinks Kavanagh probably gets it done due to speed and volume.

Odds are -200 for Kavanagh; Angelo thinks Johnson is not a 2-to-1 underdog.
"Loner Kavanaaugh is probably the pick just given all the other circumstances."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 21, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Lone'er Kavanagh

Big Brady picks Lone'er Kavanagh to win a close decision, noting that Kavanagh is a real prospect with power and takedown ability. He criticizes Charles Johnson for consistently losing first rounds and being takedown-prone. He believes Kavanagh will win rounds one and two, while Johnson may take round three, leading to a decision for Kavanagh.

Kavanagh by decision
"I'm going Kavanaaugh to win a close decision in this one."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 21, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Lone'er Kavanagh

The host notes that Kavanagh is usually at super chalky odds but here at -180, it's a great entry point. He thinks Johnson may not have the power to get Kavanagh's respect, and while Johnson may have an advantage in output and volume, Kavanagh should mix martial arts well with power strikes, speed, and takedowns to win on the scorecards.

odds comment: -180 is a great entry point
"We're so used to seeing Kavanaaugh at super chalky odds, but here at minus 180. I think this is a great entry point against a guy in Charles Johnson who may not have the power to get the respect from …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 22, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Charles Johnson

The MMA Guru picks Charles Johnson to win by decision as an underdog (+170). He believes Johnson's experience and ability to survive and push the pace will be key. He notes that Kavanagh struggled in close fights against Jose Ochoa and Felipe dos Santos, and that Johnson is hard to outgrapple effectively. He expects Johnson to have a strong third round and win a close decision, though he acknowledges Kavanagh could land a knockout.

Charles Johnson by decision; underdog +170
"Charles Johnson's going to get the upset win in my opinion. He's an underdog. He's plus 170."
LOSS vs Ramazan Temirov
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night 253 · Mar 01, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Charles Johnson 0 66 of 156 42% 87 of 183 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:18
Ramazan Temirov 0 55 of 139 39% 59 of 146 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:23
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Charles Johnson 0 15 of 41 36% 15 of 41 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Ramazan Temirov 0 21 of 44 47% 21 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
2 Charles Johnson 0 14 of 37 37% 21 of 46 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:50
Ramazan Temirov 0 19 of 46 41% 20 of 48 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:03
3 Charles Johnson 0 37 of 78 47% 51 of 96 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:28
Ramazan Temirov 0 15 of 49 30% 18 of 54 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:17
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Charles Johnson 66 of 156 42% 28 of 104 23 of 32 15 of 20 46 of 129 20 of 27 0 of 0
Ramazan Temirov 55 of 139 39% 42 of 117 13 of 22 0 of 0 46 of 118 9 of 19 0 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Charles Johnson 15 of 41 36% 5 of 26 3 of 6 7 of 9 13 of 38 2 of 3 0 of 0
Ramazan Temirov 21 of 44 47% 14 of 33 7 of 11 0 of 0 19 of 39 2 of 4 0 of 1
2 Charles Johnson 14 of 37 37% 7 of 22 5 of 10 2 of 5 10 of 32 4 of 5 0 of 0
Ramazan Temirov 19 of 46 41% 14 of 41 5 of 5 0 of 0 16 of 39 3 of 6 0 of 1
3 Charles Johnson 37 of 78 47% 16 of 56 15 of 16 6 of 6 23 of 59 14 of 19 0 of 0
Ramazan Temirov 15 of 49 30% 14 of 43 1 of 6 0 of 0 11 of 40 4 of 9 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Feb 23, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Ramazan Temirov

Angelo slightly leans towards Ramazan Temirov, citing his power and the judges' tendency to favor damage over clean technique. He acknowledges that Charles Johnson is more technical and could win a decision if he fights perfectly, but believes Temirov's power and aggression might sway the judges. He does not bet on this fight due to its razor-thin nature.

No bet; fight too close
"I am going to slightly ever so slightly lean OV here because I think that power perception might matter to the judges"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 24, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Charles Johnson

Big Brady picks Charles Johnson, citing his superior experience, cardio, and output. He notes that Ramazan Temirov relies on power shots but flyweight knockouts are rare, and Johnson has never been finished. He expects Johnson to win by decision, and even made a bet that if Johnson wins, he'll buy a 'Scallet Gang' t-shirt.

Johnson by decision; bet on Johnson moneyline; if Johnson wins, Big Brady will buy a Scallet Gang t-shirt; if Johnson wins in round 3, Big Brady will shave his head into a scallet
"I'm going Charles Johnson here I'm going to be picking him to win this fight by decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 26, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Ramazan Temirov

The host believes Temirov is a future title contender and will showcase his potential this weekend. He highlights Temirov's footwork, angle cutting, and explosive approach in the pocket, expecting his power shots to be more impactful. He predicts a knockout within the first two rounds.

knockout in first two rounds
"I believe tamarov is a future title uh Contender and I believe believe we'll see that potential this uh weekend as he goes out there and utilizes his footwork uh angle cutting and explosive uh approach especially when he gets …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked Feb 28, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Charles Johnson

The Guru picks Charles Johnson over Ramazan Temirov. He acknowledges Temirov's danger and finishing ability but doubts he can land a KO shot on Johnson, who has a great chin, good cardio, and range. He notes Johnson's win over Joshua Van and close fight with Sumudaarji. He predicts a decision win for Johnson, possibly a late TKO if Temirov slows down.

PrizePicks: Ramazan Temirov under 56.5 significant strikes (using code Guru)
"I'm leaning towards Charles Johnson for this pick... I'm going to go of Charles Johnson getting this one done by decision 2928 maybe even a late rounds TKO."
WIN vs Sumudaerji
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira · Oct 19, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Charles Johnson 1 65 of 150 43% 84 of 177 2 of 6 33% 0 0 2:58
Sumudaerji 0 75 of 144 52% 78 of 149 0 of 3 0% 2 1 0:50
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Charles Johnson 0 19 of 50 38% 33 of 64 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:16
Sumudaerji 0 24 of 43 55% 24 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
2 Charles Johnson 1 30 of 60 50% 34 of 72 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:03
Sumudaerji 0 23 of 44 52% 25 of 48 0 of 0 --- 2 1 0:30
3 Charles Johnson 0 16 of 40 40% 17 of 41 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:39
Sumudaerji 0 28 of 57 49% 29 of 58 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:17
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Charles Johnson 65 of 150 43% 42 of 113 15 of 22 8 of 15 49 of 123 5 of 10 11 of 17
Sumudaerji 75 of 144 52% 41 of 96 7 of 15 27 of 33 68 of 135 7 of 9 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Charles Johnson 19 of 50 38% 12 of 42 5 of 5 2 of 3 16 of 44 3 of 6 0 of 0
Sumudaerji 24 of 43 55% 12 of 26 2 of 3 10 of 14 20 of 39 4 of 4 0 of 0
2 Charles Johnson 30 of 60 50% 20 of 41 5 of 11 5 of 8 19 of 43 0 of 0 11 of 17
Sumudaerji 23 of 44 52% 15 of 32 2 of 5 6 of 7 22 of 42 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 Charles Johnson 16 of 40 40% 10 of 30 5 of 6 1 of 4 14 of 36 2 of 4 0 of 0
Sumudaerji 28 of 57 49% 14 of 38 3 of 7 11 of 12 26 of 54 2 of 3 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Charles Johnson vs. Su Mudaerji
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Johnson (-225), Mudaerji (+185)

Round 1
Once with his back firmly against the wall, Johnson (16-6, 5-4 UFC) has given himself plenty of breathing room with a three-fight win streak. While he has plenty of momentum on his side, the matchmaking results him in facing Mudaerji (16-6, 3-3 UFC), who has lost his last two. Whether fortune continues to smile on “InnerG” or the Chinese fighter gets back in the win column, referee Mark Smith will be there for it every step of the way. Fists are bumped, and Johnson walks through a leg kick to immediately swarm Mudaerji with a flurry of fists. Johnson pressures Mudaerji up to and against the wall, kneeing him when they tie up. Johnson lifts knees to the gut while “The Tibetan Eagle” is pinned against it, and Mudaerji tries to get away and ultimately wrenches his way out and raps a right hand on the side of Johnson’s dome. Johnson shakes it off and plods forward, absorbing a few punches and a flush calf kick so he can charge in with his own offense. Johnson misses his strikes, dodges a low kick and keeps marching forward. Mudaerji sticks his man with a calf kick and jabs him to mix things up, and Johnson preemptively picks his leg up after these kicks start to add up. Mudaerji goes on the inside with two kicks, and Johnson sits down on a right hook to drive Mudaerji back. Mudaerji steps in with an elbow, and he flicks out a few jabs and splits the guard with a left. Mudaerji batters the front leg with a kick, and Johnson eats a jab and drops his hands to reset. Johnson checks a kick when crashing the pocket, and he loads up on power punches to the body. Johnson ties him up, and he knees his man in the chest and thighs while Mudaerji is warned for grabbing inside the glove. Mudaerji lashes out with an elbow to break, and he keeps his volume high by picking jabs and low kicks from his preferred range. Johnson crowds his man and unleashes a big right hand, only to get pulled into a Thai clinch and a sharp knee on the chin. Johnson frantically chases after his opponent, loading on up big strikes and forcing Mudaerji to ricochet off the fencing. Mudaerji dodges and weaves the worst of the attacks coming his way, and Johnson backs him against the wall and loads up on him. Johnson lets him have it until the bell sounds mid-exchange.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Mudaerji
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Mudaerji
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Mudaerji

Round 2
The fighters touch ‘em up to get going in the second stanza, and Johnson dashes out of his corner to engage. Mudaerji is prepared to defend the initial blitz, succeeding in staving off the most threatening of the strikes. Mudaerji keeps shifting and moving actively, occasionally getting backed to the wall but never truly cornered. Mudaerji catches Johnson coming in with a right hand, and he scores two low kicks before Johnson can get to him. Johnson goes high with a kick that bounces off the guard, and he stomps the knee with his foot twice. Mudaerji shifts to the left to tag Johnson with a straight strike, and he flicks out a front-leg side kick and a number of punches to follow. Mudaerji wings big right hands that land behind the head, and he stumbles Johnson coming forward thanks to a low kick. Johnson finds his range with a left hook, but it is one-and-done as Mudaerji keeps moving and did not take the brunt of it. Mudaerji lines up a left hook around the guard, and Johnson barely blocks it in time. Mudaerji intercepts Johnson coming in once more, with Johnson leaving his hands low after throwing big. Johnson runs forward, hands by his side, and he jacks Mudaerji in the jaw with a vicious right hand. Mudaerji tries to escape, but Johnson is a dog with a bone chasing after him. Johnson backs Mudaerji to the fence and uppercuts him so hard, Mudaerji’s head snaps back like a Pez dispenser. Johnson lays into his opponent with a long barrage of punches, hurting Mudaerji badly and putting him down. Johnson tries to finish the job, swinging his way into the guard, where Mudaerji manages to survive and circle around to threaten with a triangle that transitions into an armbar. Johnson fights through it, gets put on his back, fights back up and somehow puts Mudaerji on the mat. Mudaerji sweeps him as soon as his seat hits the floor, and a mad exchange of grappling magic ensues until the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Johnson
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Johnson
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Johnson

Round 3
The third round kicks off with Mudaerji tough as nails ready and willing to trade. Mudaerji sticks out two front kicks, spins with a wheel kick and smashes it on the side of Johnson’s dome. The forward pressure of Mudaerji allows him to trip Johnson up, and he slams the American to the mat. Johnson jumps back up and meanders forward, checking kicks but otherwise breathing hard and not striking. Mudaerji splits the guard with a left hand, potshotting Johnson coming forward while Johnson’s offense is practically nonexistent. Johnson grits his teeth after taking a few jabs to plow forward with telegraphed hooks, and the Chinese fighter sees them coming from a mile away. Johnson slings a right to open up a straight left, and the latter catches Mudaerji on the chin. Mudaerji chops his front leg back a few times, and he turns his hips into a body kick and then resets to land one more to the inner calf of “InnerG.” Johnson stalks Mudaerji down, walking through strikes but taking more than he is landing back. Johnson’s pressure results in a brief clinch, and Mudaerji fights his way out of it and just misses with a head kick. Mudaerji times a level change when Johnson wings a right hand, and Johnson reverses him with a throw to put “The Tibetan Eagle” on his back. Mudaerji scrambles wildly to get to his feet, and he breaks away from a clinch with an overhand right. Mudaerji puts three punches on the chin as Johnson shoots for a takedown, and he sets up a brabo choke to hurl Johnson to his knees. Johnson fights the hands to break up the submission, and he drops to one knee so he does not absorb a knee from the Chinese fighter. Johnson and Mudaerji swing it out right to the final bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Mudaerji (29-28 Mudaerji)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Mudaerji (29-28 Mudaerji)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Mudaerji (29-28 Mudaerji)

The Official Result
Charles Johnson def. Su Mudaerji via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 13, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Charles Johnson

Angelo is very confident in Charles Johnson, citing his high output, technical striking, and ability to maintain pace for 15 minutes. He notes Sumudaerji's takedown defense is untested (only one takedown attempt in UFC) and that Johnson has survived tough moments before. He expects Johnson to pressure forward, be the cleaner striker, and take over as the fight goes on. He also mentions Johnson's activity and recent success.

"Charles is the pick I am very confident in that pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Charles Johnson

Big Brady picks Charles Johnson by second-round submission. He highlights Sumudaerji's poor takedown defense and six submission losses. Johnson has good wrestling and submission attempts, though no UFC submission wins. He warns that if Johnson strikes, it's a different fight, but expects him to mix in takedowns and submit Sumudaerji.

second round submission
"I'm going to Charles Johnson give me Charles Johnson to win this fight by second round submission"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Charles Johnson

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Johnson as a craftsman who should handle Sumudaerji's straightforward style. He notes that Sumudaerji lacks footwork to be a true sniper and that Johnson is durable and calculating. He expects Johnson to get on his front foot and take over in round two.

"I'd expect to see Johnson start to get on his front foot and really take over in round two"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Feb 21, 2026 (fight day)

This fight was not discussed in the transcript.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Charles Johnson

Both are strikers, but Johnson has a better gas tank, better discipline striking, and good enough footwork and defensive striking to stay away from Sumudaerji's power. Johnson will chip away and win by decision or get a late finish.

"Johnson the better gas tank better discipline striking and good enough footwork and defensive striking to stay away from the big Power of sumod darji allowing Johnson to chip away at sumod dargi either win this fight by decision or …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 15, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Charles Johnson

The Guru picks Charles Johnson despite not liking him personally, citing Johnson's recent momentum and wins over Joshua Van and Jake Hadley. He criticizes Sumudaerji's lack of power and relevant wins, noting he was dominated by Tim Elliott and struggled against Matt Schnell. He believes Johnson can take the fight to the ground if needed and predicts a later-rounds finish.

later rounds finish
"I'm going to go with Charles Johnson getting this one done"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Charles Johnson

Zane picks Johnson, expecting him to calculate and counter Sumudaerji's linear, lunging strikes. He notes that Sumudaerji is a one-track fighter who backs straight out after throwing, and Johnson's durability and craftiness should allow him to take over in round two. He acknowledges that Johnson might be lackadaisical against a less dangerous opponent.

Sumudaerji opened +176, now +187; Johnson opened -201, now -216; odds feel right
"I think Charles Johnson can find the counters to those strikes"
WIN vs Joshua Van
KO (punches) R3 0:20 · UFC on ESPN: Namajunas vs. Cortez · Jul 13, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Charles Johnson 0 67 of 133 50% 72 of 140 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:15
Joshua Van 1 88 of 191 46% 90 of 195 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:34
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Charles Johnson 0 22 of 46 47% 27 of 53 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:15
Joshua Van 0 44 of 80 55% 46 of 83 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:32
2 Charles Johnson 0 44 of 83 53% 44 of 83 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Joshua Van 0 36 of 100 36% 36 of 101 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Charles Johnson 0 1 of 4 25% 1 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Joshua Van 1 8 of 11 72% 8 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Charles Johnson 67 of 133 50% 44 of 106 17 of 20 6 of 7 60 of 123 7 of 9 0 of 1
Joshua Van 88 of 191 46% 44 of 124 25 of 41 19 of 26 84 of 184 3 of 6 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Charles Johnson 22 of 46 47% 13 of 36 8 of 9 1 of 1 16 of 37 6 of 8 0 of 1
Joshua Van 44 of 80 55% 18 of 41 13 of 23 13 of 16 41 of 74 3 of 6 0 of 0
2 Charles Johnson 44 of 83 53% 30 of 66 9 of 11 5 of 6 43 of 82 1 of 1 0 of 0
Joshua Van 36 of 100 36% 19 of 74 11 of 16 6 of 10 36 of 100 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Charles Johnson 1 of 4 25% 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Joshua Van 8 of 11 72% 7 of 9 1 of 2 0 of 0 7 of 10 0 of 0 1 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Charles Johnson vs. Joshua Van
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Van (-205), Johnson (+170)

Round 1
Capping off the prelims is the flyweights, who will likely engage in a high-paced frenzy of feet and fists. Van (10-1, 3-0 UFC), training out of 4oz Fight Club in Texas, comes in on an eight-fight win streak with stoppages in six of those. While he has only won two in a row, Johnson (15-6, 3-4 UFC) is on the first winning stretch of his UFC career as he has already picked up two decisions this year. This speedy affair will be joined in the cage by referee Joe Coca, and it kicks off with an appropriately quick glove touch. Johnson leads off in a hurry with a leg kick, a jab to the body and a high kick. Van blocks a subsequent body kick, and he keeps his guard up to defend a jab. Johnson picks at him from distance, mixing his attack up to all targets. As Johnson crashes forward, he clips Van with a right hand, and Van takes it flush and does not bat an eye. Johnson stays active with several chopping low kicks, flicking out jabs and flustering Van. Van tries to close the distance with his own strikes, but Johnson is far more active than the self-described slow starter. Johnson peppers him with jabs and low kicks, pushing out a front kick to make Van back away. Van pushes in with a jab and an overhand right, and he uses it to tie Johnson up. “InnerG” turns him around and pounds Van in the thigh and breadbasket with knees, and Van tries to fight out of it to no avail. Johnson shoots in for a double, and Van stonewalls him and backs him away with his own jab. Van protects his ribs with a kick and sets his right hand on the chin. Johnson strings together three punches in response, and he brushes his face to say Van did not land. Van ignores this and touches him two more times with an overhand right, and Johnson stumbles and escapes when backed to the cage. Van brings up a knee that bounces into the cup, and Johnson tells Coca he is fine and that there is no stoppage necessary. Van walks Johnson down, fighting behind a jab and landing right hands to follow. Van knocks his man off his feet, and Johnson defends with an armbar off his back. Johnson jumps back to his feet when Van pulls out of the submission, and he shoots for a takedown that fails. Johnson prods out jabs, and Van busts him in the chops with a right and a left. Van makes Johnson shell up with a right hand and two body shots, and the power difference is fast. Van puts a lot more behind his strikes, and he gets the reactions he seeks when landing until the bell rings.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Van
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Van
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Van

Round 2
Van comes out of his corner ready to pick up where he left off, marching “InnerG” down and landing a few strikes on the way in. Johnson is also similarly active, picking and poking with distance strikes. Van smashes him in the face with an uppercut, and Johnson does not like this and circles away. Van gives chase, chaining three punches together as Johnson escapes. The Terminator-like Van plods forward, aiming strikes to the body when not going up top. Johnson reaches out with a swiping left hook, and it does not make Van back up one inch. Van comes out throwing with two hooks, and Johnson barely gets out of the way. Johnson jabs twice and powers out a left hand, and Van no-sells him and gives him back a sharp jab that makes Johnson turn his head dismissively. Van pops him with a left and comes at him with a head kick, and Johnson bounces off the cage and lets loose with a right hand. Johnson whiffs on two hooks, and Van stays tightly compact and dings Johnson with a left hook on the nose. Van buckles the leg with a kick, ignoring Johnson’s jabs and straight punches. Johnson scores a left, and Van does too. Van jabs his way into a short combination, and Johnson punches back as he strafes to the side. Van nails him with a right hand, and Johnson shakes it off and throws back. Van loops a few right hands around the guard, and Johnson strikes back and gets in an elbow down the middle. Van keeps pursuing his foe, and the two flyweights are trading without fear. Johnson steps through with a knee, and Van responds with a right hand over the top and barely blocks a spinning back elbow in time. Van misses with a right as Johnson jumps forward, and his head kick is blocked. Two Johnson jabs end the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Van
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Van
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Van

Round 3
There is a brief glove touch to begin the last round, and Johnson lands the first strike with a right hand. As they both swing for the fences, Johnson nails his opponent with a right hand. Johnson blasts the body with a kick and ducks to avoid a screaming left hook, and he fakes a leg kick to spin with an elbow that bounces off Van’s forehead. Van tries to make him pay with an overhand right, but Johnson’s own fast right finds its mark and gets Van’s attention. Johnson jabs the body and comes up top with two punches, and his crisp right staggers “The Fearless.”
Johnson walks Van down and clobbers him with a thunderous uppercut, sending Van careening to the mat. As Johnson leaps down to smash Van with a big right hand, Coca dives between them, and Van’s head bounces off the mat to bring him back around.
While Van sits up to potentially protests the stoppage, he realizes he got his bell rung and that there is nothing more he can do. Johnson celebrates his wild comeback victory after a thrilling battle, and he sets the crowd up to drown out the arena with “USA” chants.

The Official Result
Charles Johnson def. Joshua Van R3 0:20 via KO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Jul 7, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Charles Johnson

Angelo picks Charles Johnson as an underdog, citing his experience against higher-level competition and short-notice adaptability. He acknowledges Joshua Van's power and prospect status but believes Johnson's veteran savvy and awkward style could frustrate Van. Angelo has a small bet ($25, quarter unit) on Johnson at +170 and mentions a potential plus 3.5 round bet as a safer alternative.

Has a $25 bet at +170; considering plus 3.5 round bet for Johnson.
"I am going to pick Charles Johnson here I am going to go the underdog here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Joshua Van

Cody picks Van, citing his youth, volume, and cardio. He notes Van's slow starts but believes his pace will overwhelm Johnson, who tends to fade. He expects Van to win by decision or late finish.

"Joshua Vans a play for me."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Charles Johnson

Daniel Vreeland picks Charles Johnson to win a close decision. He notes that Johnson is a veteran who has been in tough battles and has prepared well for the altitude. He acknowledges Van's talent but thinks Van may face a roadblock. He likes the plus 180 underdog value and expects a split decision type fight.

"I'm g go with Charles Johnson with the veteran experience here uh via a very close type Split Decision type fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Joshua Van

Joshua Van's style is more reliable with consistent output. Despite a height and reach disadvantage, Van will crash the pocket and land body shots, setting up his striking game. The minus 200 line is a bit wide, but Van should win on the scorecards.

Van by decision; odds comment: line a bit wide
"the minus 200ish line on Van a little bit wide for my liking but I do think we see him come through and win this fight on the scorecards"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Joshua Van

Paul picks Van, citing his volume and cardio. He notes Johnson's tendency to lose rounds early and then fade, while Van gets stronger as the fight goes on. He expects Van to outwork Johnson and win a decision.

"I'm going to have to go with volume I'm going to go with Joshua van."
WIN vs Jake Hadley
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Lewis vs. Nascimento · May 11, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Charles Johnson 1 70 of 168 41% 88 of 188 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
Jake Hadley 0 48 of 128 37% 50 of 130 0 of 11 0% 0 0 2:12
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Charles Johnson 0 19 of 40 47% 22 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jake Hadley 0 17 of 47 36% 17 of 47 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:35
2 Charles Johnson 1 32 of 74 43% 37 of 80 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
Jake Hadley 0 20 of 38 52% 22 of 40 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:27
3 Charles Johnson 0 19 of 54 35% 29 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jake Hadley 0 11 of 43 25% 11 of 43 0 of 5 0% 0 0 1:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Charles Johnson 70 of 168 41% 36 of 125 12 of 18 22 of 25 66 of 159 0 of 2 4 of 7
Jake Hadley 48 of 128 37% 15 of 86 15 of 22 18 of 20 46 of 124 2 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Charles Johnson 19 of 40 47% 5 of 21 5 of 8 9 of 11 19 of 39 0 of 1 0 of 0
Jake Hadley 17 of 47 36% 3 of 27 6 of 10 8 of 10 15 of 43 2 of 4 0 of 0
2 Charles Johnson 32 of 74 43% 19 of 58 4 of 7 9 of 9 28 of 67 0 of 0 4 of 7
Jake Hadley 20 of 38 52% 6 of 22 5 of 7 9 of 9 20 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Charles Johnson 19 of 54 35% 12 of 46 3 of 3 4 of 5 19 of 53 0 of 1 0 of 0
Jake Hadley 11 of 43 25% 6 of 37 4 of 5 1 of 1 11 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked May 5, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Jake Hadley

Angelo leans towards Jake Hadley because he cannot trust Charles Johnson's one phenomenal showing over several mediocre ones. He notes Hadley has good takedowns and BJJ, though his takedown accuracy is low due to bailing on attempts. He acknowledges that if the version of Johnson that beat Azat Maksum shows up, he wins, but that version has only appeared once.

"I am going to lean Jake Hadley here because Jake Hadley has pretty good takedowns"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked May 8, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Charles Johnson

Big Brady picks Charles Johnson, citing the hometown advantage in St. Louis and the possibility that Johnson can do enough on the feet while mixing in takedowns. He notes that Johnson has been taken down in every UFC fight but that Hadley has zero takedowns in the UFC, so the fight likely stays standing. He is not confident because Johnson can be low volume and hesitant, but if the version that fought Maxim shows up, he can win. He expects a decision and thinks the hometown rub could help Johnson in a close fight.

PrizePicks play: Jake Hadley more than 45.5 significant strikes
"I'm thinking about maybe taking the the hometown guy because I think he can do enough to win on the feet maybe mixing some takedowns in his own right and then also if it's a close fight or even if …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 7, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Charles Johnson

Cody picks Johnson as a confident underdog. He argues that Hadley is overhyped, with poor cardio, weak striking, and a questionable chin. Johnson has excellent get-up game, having been taken down many times but always getting back up. He also has superior boxing and volume. Cody believes Johnson can stuff takedowns or get up quickly, and outwork Hadley on the feet. He notes that Hadley has looked bad against wrestlers and grapplers, and Johnson is a tough veteran.

"Charles Johnson dog money over Hadley all day sign me up"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 9, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Charles Johnson

Daniel Vreeland picks Charles Johnson, noting that the fighters who beat Johnson are relentless wrestlers, which Hadley is not. He believes Johnson's cardio and volume will be key, and that Hadley's weight cut (walking around 160 lbs) will be a factor. He predicts a unanimous decision win for Johnson.

by unanimous decision
"I'm going to have to go with Charles Johnson via unanimous decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 7, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Charles Johnson

Paul picks Johnson, echoing Cody's reasoning. He notes that Johnson showed improved takedown defense in his last fight and has never been submitted. Hadley's cardio and striking are suspect, and Johnson's volume should win rounds. Paul thinks Johnson's get-up game and durability will be key. He is confident in the underdog.

"Charles Johnson plus 140 for me as well"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 7, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Charles Johnson

The MMA Guru picks Charles Johnson as an underdog over Jake Hadley. He criticizes Hadley's performance against Cody Durden, particularly his inability to secure takedowns and his stationary style. He praises Johnson's elusiveness, outside movement, Olympic-level cardio, and world-class takedown defense. He believes Johnson's style will frustrate Hadley and that Hadley's best wins come against fighters who stand in front of him.

"I'm gonna go the underdog of Charles Johnson here over Jake Hadley."
Expert Picks (6)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Nov 12, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Rafael Estevam

Angelo picks Rafael Estevam with low confidence, citing Charles Johnson's recent lack of urgency and tendency to not do enough to impress judges. He notes Estevam's high-pressure grappling and relentless takedown attempts, though his takedowns are sloppy. He expects a decision and thinks Estevam will edge it.

"I'm GNA go ra rafhael estam here for the win low confidence pick here it's going to come down to the judges I don't see a finish"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Nov 17, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Rafael Estevam

Big Brady thinks people overrate Charles Johnson, noting he's been taken down frequently by wrestlers like Cody Durden and Mohammad Kayev. He believes Estevam is a solid wrestler who will stick to Johnson like glue and grind out a decision. However, he acknowledges this is Estevam's toughest fight by far and the decision could be close due to damage vs control arguments. He's staying away from betting on this fight.

"I think estom is going to kind of stick to this guy Like Glue I don't think he's going to give him any room to breathe and I think estom is going to kind of grind out a decision here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Rafael Estevam

Cody picks Rafael Estevam, citing his wrestling and takedown ability. He notes that Charles Johnson gives up takedowns frequently. Estevam can chain wrestle and control Johnson. Cody also mentions a PrizePicks play on Estevam over 2.5 takedowns.

Cody mentions a PrizePicks play on Estevam over 2.5 takedowns.
"eston will be the pick on the batting side for me"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 17, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Rafael Estevam

Estevam has the grappling advantage and cardio edge to control the fight. He will dictate the pace with relentless grappling and clinch control, neutralizing Johnson's volume striking. Estevam's takedown defense and get-ups are solid, but he gets pinned in bad spots. Estevam wins by decision, as he lacks finishing ability but can outwork Johnson.

"I believe minus 150 is a short line considering that estan will likely have the grappling advantage in this matchup he also has the cardio Edge which will allow him to set the pace and keep pushing on Johnson"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Nov 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Charles Johnson

Paul initially leans towards Estevam but switches to Charles Johnson as an underdog. He notes Johnson's excellent get-up game and cardio advantage. Paul thinks if Estevam's debut nerves or weight cut issues arise, Johnson can out-strike him. He admits it's a risky pick and will wait for weigh-ins.

Paul mentions the fight going the distance as a possible play.
"I'm going to take Charles Johnson Underdog"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Charles Johnson

The MMA Guru picks Charles Johnson over Rafael Estevam, noting that Estevam's Contender Series win came against a fighter with a padded record and that Estevam relied on top position after escaping submissions. He highlights Johnson's experience against tough UFC opponents like Muhammad Mokaev, where Johnson out-struck Mokaev but was out-grappled. He believes Johnson's takedown defense, cardio, and ability to break Estevam in the third round will lead to a win.

"I'm going to go with Charles Johnson in this early prelim opener... I think he's going to get the win against Rafael Estevam because he's more experienced, he's got the cardio, he's got the takedown defense, and I reckon he can break Estevam in the third round."