vs
-225 +205
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig · Nov 18, 2023 · Women's Strawweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig Next Fight
Age 32
Height 5' 3"
Reach 66.0"
Weight 115 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 33
Height 5' 2"
Reach 62.0"
Weight 115 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Amanda Ribas
4.26 SLpM
39.0% Str. Acc.
3.29 SApM
60.0% Str. Def.
2.05 TD Avg
52.0% TD Acc.
82.0% TD Def.
0.6 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Luana Pinheiro
3.29 SLpM
39.0% Str. Acc.
4.06 SApM
60.0% Str. Def.
2.33 TD Avg
37.0% TD Acc.
71.0% TD Def.
0.2 Sub. Avg
Amanda Ribas
Moneyline
FanDuel -225
KO/TKO
FanDuel +1100
Submission
FanDuel +460
Decision
BetRivers +114
Luana Pinheiro
Moneyline
DraftKings +205
KO/TKO
BetRivers +500
Submission
BetRivers +2000
Decision
FanDuel +500
Amanda Ribas - Fight History
SCHED vs Fatima Kline
UFC Fight Night 281 · Jul 18, 2026
LOSS vs Tabatha Ricci
KO R2 2:59 · UFC on ABC: Whittaker vs. de Ridder · Jul 26, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Amanda Ribas 0 30 of 72 41% 77 of 122 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:18
Tabatha Ricci 0 34 of 76 44% 82 of 140 1 of 4 25% 0 0 4:11
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Amanda Ribas 0 22 of 47 46% 55 of 83 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:18
Tabatha Ricci 0 14 of 42 33% 48 of 86 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:39
2 Amanda Ribas 0 8 of 25 32% 22 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tabatha Ricci 0 20 of 34 58% 34 of 54 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:32
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Amanda Ribas 30 of 72 41% 18 of 57 5 of 6 7 of 9 29 of 68 1 of 4 0 of 0
Tabatha Ricci 34 of 76 44% 23 of 60 6 of 10 5 of 6 20 of 61 4 of 5 10 of 10
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Amanda Ribas 22 of 47 46% 13 of 37 5 of 5 4 of 5 22 of 47 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tabatha Ricci 14 of 42 33% 8 of 33 3 of 6 3 of 3 14 of 42 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Amanda Ribas 8 of 25 32% 5 of 20 0 of 1 3 of 4 7 of 21 1 of 4 0 of 0
Tabatha Ricci 20 of 34 58% 15 of 27 3 of 4 2 of 3 6 of 19 4 of 5 10 of 10
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jul 20, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Amanda Ribas

Angelo picks Amanda Ribas but is split between brain and gut. He notes Ribas is well-rounded with solid takedown defense and striking, while Tabatha Ricci has abandoned her grappling for boxing due to her boyfriend's influence. He believes Ricci's new style is ineffective and Ribas is the better fighter, but acknowledges Ricci's pressure and cardio could cause an upset.

"Ultimately, the pick is going to be Amanda because the reality is while Amanda made a couple of mistakes in her last fight, she is the absolute type of person to feel bad for herself for about five minutes, pick …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 22, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Amanda Ribas

Big Brady picks Amanda Ribas, believing she is the better striker and grappler. He notes Ribas has a reach advantage and a positive striking differential, while Ricci has low volume and a very short reach. He acknowledges Ribas has chin issues but thinks Ricci lacks power to exploit it. He predicts a decision win.

decision
"I got to go with Heboss here. I think she's just a little bit better everywhere."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jul 23, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Tabatha Ricci

Both women are flaky, but Ricci has the ability to work through Ribas's unflashy striking game and could even land takedowns to grind out a decision win.

Ricci by decision
"I think Richi has the ability to work through that unflashy game of Hebos in the striking room. And I think Richi could even land some takedowns to grind Hebos out. So, I'm going to go Reichi and Reichi by …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Jul 24, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Tabatha Ricci

The MMA Guru picks Tabatha Ricci despite acknowledging she has been 'gifted' decisions in the past. He notes Ribas's chinny nature and recent submission loss, but is hesitant because Ricci's wins are often controversial. He predicts a close 29-28 decision, possibly a robbery, in Ricci's favor.

"I'm going with Taba Richie to get this one done. She's an industry plant. ... Robbery 2928 decision."
LOSS vs Mackenzie Dern
Submission (armbar) R3 4:56 · UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · Jan 11, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mackenzie Dern 0 27 of 46 58% 82 of 107 1 of 3 33% 1 2 4:34
Amanda Ribas 0 17 of 56 30% 99 of 151 2 of 2 100% 0 0 5:47
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mackenzie Dern 0 12 of 25 48% 34 of 47 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:36
Amanda Ribas 0 10 of 33 30% 27 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Mackenzie Dern 0 3 of 3 100% 24 of 25 0 of 1 0% 0 1 0:19
Amanda Ribas 0 3 of 6 50% 37 of 49 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:31
3 Mackenzie Dern 0 12 of 18 66% 24 of 35 0 of 1 0% 1 1 1:39
Amanda Ribas 0 4 of 17 23% 35 of 52 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:16
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mackenzie Dern 27 of 46 58% 13 of 27 3 of 8 11 of 11 18 of 34 1 of 3 8 of 9
Amanda Ribas 17 of 56 30% 10 of 44 1 of 4 6 of 8 14 of 51 0 of 0 3 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mackenzie Dern 12 of 25 48% 4 of 15 2 of 4 6 of 6 12 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
Amanda Ribas 10 of 33 30% 6 of 26 1 of 3 3 of 4 9 of 32 0 of 0 1 of 1
2 Mackenzie Dern 3 of 3 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 2 2 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 1
Amanda Ribas 3 of 6 50% 2 of 5 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 4 0 of 0 2 of 2
3 Mackenzie Dern 12 of 18 66% 8 of 11 1 of 4 3 of 3 4 of 7 1 of 3 7 of 8
Amanda Ribas 4 of 17 23% 2 of 13 0 of 1 2 of 3 4 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 5, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Amanda Ribas

Angelo picks Amanda Ribas, noting that she dominated the first fight and has improved her striking since. He believes Ribas is the better striker and wrestler, and that her takedown defense and cardio will be key. He thinks the five rounds favor Ribas, as Dern's danger decreases as the fight goes on. He mentions Jacob had a big bet on Ribas at plus money when she was an underdog.

Jacob had a massive bet on Amanda Ribas at plus money (now -200)
"Amanda heas wins this fight I think it's pretty straightforward and I think the five rounds only benefits Amanda"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Amanda Ribas

Big Brady notes that Dern has improved her striking and takedown accuracy since their first fight, but still considers her wrestling and striking not great. He highlights Ribas's elite takedown defense (85%) and her own grappling ability, meaning she won't be afraid to grapple. He predicts Ribas will dictate where the fight takes place and win by decision, though not as dominant as the first fight.

"I got to go heos here um I don't think it's going to look as dominant as one-sided as their first fight"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Amanda Ribas

Cody leans toward Ribas despite the -200 price, citing Dern's inability to chain wrestle and finish submissions over three years. He notes Dern's mental lapses in later rounds and Ribas's forward pressure and power. He suggests a live bet strategy, expecting Ribas to win rounds 3-5 as Dern fades.

live bet on Ribas after round 2
"I'm leaning towards heus but this minus 200 price tag in the first main event of the year I'm not digging it to be honest"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Amanda Ribas

Connor picks Ribas because she has a fundamental technical advantage on the feet and a style that counters Dern's approach. He notes that Dern's striking defense is nonexistent and she cannot land the same strike twice due to poor technique. Ribas is comfortable trading and landing cleaner counters, as seen in their first fight. Dern's path to victory requires a simple aggressive game plan, but she lacks the technical ability to execute it consistently.

"I'm definitely taking Heebush in the rematch."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Jan 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Amanda Ribas

Daniel acknowledges Ribas is more technically sound but notes her chinny defect, having been knocked out by multiple opponents. He thinks Ribas will dominate but could get cracked, so he passes on betting. As a pure pick, he goes with Ribas via decision, citing her superior technique and the fact that she usually needs to be finished to lose. He also mentions Dern's improved hands but still favors Ribas.

pass on betting, dog-or-pass situation
"I'm going to go with heos as a pure pick I just think she's more technically sound than McKenzie D in probably every Department"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jan 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Amanda Ribas

Lucrative James confidently picks Amanda Ribas, having placed a bet at -160. He believes Ribas is better in all facets of MMA, as shown in their first fight. He notes that five rounds favor Ribas's cardio and experience, though Dern's danger (power, submissions) offsets it slightly. He hasn't seen enough improvement from Dern to change the outcome. He also mentions that the line has moved to -200, giving him CLV.

Bet placed at -160, line now -200
"I played Amanda rebass at minus 160 about a week or two ago"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 10, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Amanda Ribas

Ribas is still ahead of Dern and should stop Dern's poor wrestling. Ribas will be more effective and active with her striking, busting up Dern and winning on the scorecards in this rematch from 2019.

"I still believe heos is ahead of where dur is at heos should do a good enough job in terms of stopping the very poor uh wrestling style of D and then from there I think heos can stay more …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Amanda Ribas

Paul agrees with Cody, noting Dern's improved focus but still rudimentary wrestling. He highlights Ribas's takedown defense and well-roundedness, and that Dern went 0 for 6 on takedowns in their first fight. He is not excited about -200 but sees Ribas as the rightful favorite.

"I think that uh Amanda heus keeps this standing she's more well-rounded she's been bouncing around from 125 to 115 so this being at 115 um you're going to have full strength full capabilities everything like that for heas I …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Jan 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Amanda Ribas

The Guru struggles with this pick, initially leaning towards Dern but then recalling that Ribas won the first fight by stuffing takedowns and outstriking Dern. He notes Dern's poor striking and Ribas's suspect chin but ultimately goes with Ribas, predicting a TKO in round 3 or 4. He expresses frustration with the difficulty of the pick.

TKO in round 3 or 4
"ribass won the first fight sorry ribass I'm going with Amanda ribash she stuffed all the takedowns and she beat the [ __ ] out of her let's go Ribas easy"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Amanda Ribas

Zane agrees with Connor, initially seeing an avenue for Dern but concluding that Ribas is the correct pick. He notes that Dern's success comes against opponents terrified of her ground game or those she can outmuscle, but Ribas is not afraid to scrap and will fire back. Dern's lack of technical improvement and inability to finish fights in recent years are key factors. Zane also mentions that Ribas has not changed her style, which works against Dern.

"I'm with you on that. But can't not pick Heebush."
LOSS vs Rose Namajunas
Decision (unanimous) (49–46, 49–46, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Ribas vs. Namajunas · Mar 23, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rose Namajunas 0 83 of 270 30% 137 of 342 4 of 8 50% 0 0 1:38
Amanda Ribas 0 93 of 188 49% 169 of 281 1 of 3 33% 0 1 6:59
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rose Namajunas 0 16 of 47 34% 30 of 63 2 of 3 66% 0 0 0:18
Amanda Ribas 0 23 of 34 67% 35 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:55
2 Rose Namajunas 0 15 of 49 30% 22 of 57 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Amanda Ribas 0 19 of 39 48% 43 of 65 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:00
3 Rose Namajunas 0 18 of 50 36% 31 of 70 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:20
Amanda Ribas 0 19 of 36 52% 20 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:24
4 Rose Namajunas 0 10 of 39 25% 29 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Amanda Ribas 0 7 of 25 28% 45 of 68 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:40
5 Rose Namajunas 0 24 of 85 28% 25 of 86 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Amanda Ribas 0 25 of 54 46% 26 of 55 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rose Namajunas 83 of 270 30% 39 of 195 19 of 42 25 of 33 76 of 259 4 of 6 3 of 5
Amanda Ribas 93 of 188 49% 45 of 124 44 of 60 4 of 4 81 of 176 12 of 12 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rose Namajunas 16 of 47 34% 8 of 33 2 of 6 6 of 8 14 of 45 2 of 2 0 of 0
Amanda Ribas 23 of 34 67% 6 of 16 16 of 17 1 of 1 16 of 27 7 of 7 0 of 0
2 Rose Namajunas 15 of 49 30% 7 of 34 3 of 8 5 of 7 14 of 48 1 of 1 0 of 0
Amanda Ribas 19 of 39 48% 12 of 27 6 of 11 1 of 1 18 of 38 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Rose Namajunas 18 of 50 36% 10 of 39 3 of 5 5 of 6 15 of 44 0 of 1 3 of 5
Amanda Ribas 19 of 36 52% 11 of 26 7 of 9 1 of 1 17 of 34 2 of 2 0 of 0
4 Rose Namajunas 10 of 39 25% 3 of 28 2 of 5 5 of 6 10 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Amanda Ribas 7 of 25 28% 4 of 19 3 of 6 0 of 0 7 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Rose Namajunas 24 of 85 28% 11 of 61 9 of 18 4 of 6 23 of 83 1 of 2 0 of 0
Amanda Ribas 25 of 54 46% 12 of 36 12 of 17 1 of 1 23 of 52 2 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Mar 17, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Angelo picks Rose Namajunas despite rooting for Amanda Ribas. He acknowledges Rose's superior skills and accomplishments but is concerned about her mental state and training camp. He notes that Rose has not looked bad in recent losses, being outstruck by a larger striker in Manon Fiorot and having a boring fight with Carla Esparza. He hopes Ribas wins but cannot pick against Rose's talent.

"I got to pick rose rose is going to be the pick Amanda's going to stay in her face hopefully Amanda rips her to the ground and just beats on her and breaks her and wins this fight let's have …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Big Brady picks Rose Namajunas, stating she is the much better fighter with a better resume. He notes Rose is the better striker, has good grappling, and has gone five rounds before. He points out Ribas is less durable (knocked out three times) and this is her first five-round fight. He predicts a decision win for Rose.

"I got to go Rose here I mean I I just think she's the much better fighter... I'm going to take rose on my un to win this fight and to Win It by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Mar 21, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Cody acknowledges Rose's technical skills and well-rounded game, but highlights her mental inconsistency and tendency to have flat performances like the Carla Esparza fight. He notes that Rose is capable of looking like a -500 favorite or just handing rounds away. He ultimately picks Rose but with hesitancy due to these red flags.

"I will take Rose but again there's always going to be some hesitancy there."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Mar 20, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Amanda Ribas

Daniel Vreeland leans toward Amanda Ribas if the fight goes past the first two rounds, citing Rose's tendency to fade or lose focus when extended. He notes Ribas has better output, wrestling, and durability in later rounds, while Rose's path is an early knockout. He acknowledges Rose's danger but prefers the dog at plus money.

"if this fight gets extended I think that her output's on the higher side as well and it's one of those things where Rose is very momentum based"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Namajunas has superior technical striking and should be able to set traps and land clean shots. Ribas is durable but leaves openings and has been finished by technical strikers before. Namajunas should stop takedowns and control the striking, likely finishing by TKO in the third round. The under on 4.5 rounds is favored, indicating a finish is expected.

Namajunas by TKO (round 3); under 4.5 rounds
"I think we see Nami yunas control this fight in the Striking realm I think she stops the takedowns... and then I think we obviously see Nami unas find that knockout I'm going to call it round three."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 21, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Paul points out that Amanda Ribas has been bouncing between weight classes and hasn't filled out her frame at 125. He credits Rose's performance against Manon Fiorot, where she fought through a broken hand, and believes Rose will learn from her flat performance against Carla Esparza. He picks Rose but acknowledges the possibility of another lackluster showing.

"I got Rose as well... I'll hope that she's learned her lesson from that absolutely flat performance."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

The MMA Guru picks Rose Namajunas over Amanda Ribas, citing Rose's shot placement and five-round experience. He thinks Ribas' chin is suspect and that Rose will hurt her on the feet. He predicts a second-round rear-naked choke after dropping Ribas with a punch.

second round rear-naked choke
"I'm going Rosen am yunas over Amanda Ribas... second round re naked choke to Rose nunas"
TKO (spinning wheel kick and punches) R3 3:53 · UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig · Nov 18, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Amanda Ribas 0 55 of 116 47% 56 of 120 1 of 6 16% 0 0 1:11
Luana Pinheiro 1 87 of 224 38% 96 of 234 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:30
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Amanda Ribas 0 25 of 54 46% 25 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Luana Pinheiro 0 18 of 69 26% 19 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:16
2 Amanda Ribas 0 18 of 35 51% 18 of 36 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Luana Pinheiro 0 40 of 98 40% 40 of 98 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Amanda Ribas 0 12 of 27 44% 13 of 30 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:11
Luana Pinheiro 1 29 of 57 50% 37 of 66 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:14
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Amanda Ribas 55 of 116 47% 36 of 86 11 of 18 8 of 12 51 of 109 4 of 6 0 of 1
Luana Pinheiro 87 of 224 38% 57 of 158 8 of 29 22 of 37 81 of 212 3 of 6 3 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Amanda Ribas 25 of 54 46% 17 of 42 4 of 7 4 of 5 24 of 52 1 of 2 0 of 0
Luana Pinheiro 18 of 69 26% 12 of 51 1 of 8 5 of 10 17 of 68 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Amanda Ribas 18 of 35 51% 11 of 23 4 of 7 3 of 5 18 of 35 0 of 0 0 of 0
Luana Pinheiro 40 of 98 40% 23 of 64 3 of 14 14 of 20 39 of 96 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 Amanda Ribas 12 of 27 44% 8 of 21 3 of 4 1 of 2 9 of 22 3 of 4 0 of 1
Luana Pinheiro 29 of 57 50% 22 of 43 4 of 7 3 of 7 25 of 48 1 of 3 3 of 6
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Amanda Ribas

Angelo picks Amanda Ribas, expecting her to use her size and strength to grind out a win. He notes she is well-rounded with solid takedown defense and cardio. He warns she must stay controlled and not get sucked into a brawl. He also mentions a prop bet on Luana Pinheiro inside the distance.

Bet on Luana Pinheiro inside the distance (decision no action)
"Amanda's going to be the pick here but honestly the bet is going to be Lanna Panera inside the distance decision no action"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Nov 17, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Amanda Ribas

Big Brady thinks Ribas is better everywhere—striking, wrestling, grappling, cardio—but her chin is very bad, having been dropped and knocked out multiple times. He finds it hard to pick Pinheiro, who he doesn't think is that great, to win by knockout. He predicts Ribas wins by decision but calls it a sketchy fight due to durability concerns.

"I'm going to pick heos to win this fight by decision but a sketchy fight to be honest"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Amanda Ribas

Cody picks Amanda Ribas, citing her takedown offense and volume striking. He notes that Pinheiro is a front-runner who tires, and Ribas can mix in takedowns and striking to win. He acknowledges Ribas took damage in her last fight but believes she has the dog in her to win.

"I'll pick heus as well to win on volume and just that she has that hashtag dog in her"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Nov 17, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Luana Pinheiro

Pinheiro has good striking power and can hurt Ribas on the feet. Ribas's grappling is a threat, but Pinheiro is strong enough to keep it standing. Pinheiro's power punches can find the button and knock Ribas out, likely in the second round. The line is too wide; Pinheiro has value at plus money.

win by knockout
"give me Pinero and I think I'm going to go down a limb here uh and I'm going to take her to win this fight by knockout low confidence but I think she can find the button on heos and …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Amanda Ribas

Paul picks Ribas, noting her takedown accuracy and ability to grind. He points out that Pinheiro gasses and has questionable durability. Paul believes Ribas can take her down, tire her, and open up striking. He mentions Ribas' loss to Barber but thinks Pinheiro lacks that finishing ability.

"I'm going to end up going with heos"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Nov 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Amanda Ribas

The MMA Guru picks Amanda Ribas despite concerns about her chin after being knocked out at flyweight. He criticizes Luana Pinheiro's record as padded, noting her controversial win over Michelle Waterson and a fake knockout against Randa Markos. He believes Ribas has a massive reach advantage and that Pinheiro lacks the power to finish her, predicting a 29-28 decision win.

decision 29-28
"I am going to go Amanda Ribas here... I don't see Pinheiro having the power to finish her at this point so I'm going to go Ribas wins a decision 29-28."
LOSS vs Maycee Barber
TKO (punches and elbows) R2 3:42 · UFC on ABC: Emmett vs. Topuria · Jun 24, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Maycee Barber 0 35 of 74 47% 43 of 85 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:25
Amanda Ribas 0 81 of 124 65% 93 of 139 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:22
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Maycee Barber 0 22 of 42 52% 26 of 47 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:13
Amanda Ribas 0 35 of 62 56% 41 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:14
2 Maycee Barber 0 13 of 32 40% 17 of 38 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:12
Amanda Ribas 0 46 of 62 74% 52 of 69 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:08
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Maycee Barber 35 of 74 47% 21 of 52 7 of 14 7 of 8 30 of 68 5 of 6 0 of 0
Amanda Ribas 81 of 124 65% 70 of 108 5 of 10 6 of 6 32 of 60 6 of 9 43 of 55
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Maycee Barber 22 of 42 52% 11 of 27 6 of 9 5 of 6 19 of 38 3 of 4 0 of 0
Amanda Ribas 35 of 62 56% 28 of 55 1 of 1 6 of 6 14 of 28 2 of 5 19 of 29
2 Maycee Barber 13 of 32 40% 10 of 25 1 of 5 2 of 2 11 of 30 2 of 2 0 of 0
Amanda Ribas 46 of 62 74% 42 of 53 4 of 9 0 of 0 18 of 32 4 of 4 24 of 26
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 18, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Amanda Ribas

Angelo picks Amanda Ribas, citing her better Jiu-Jitsu, higher level of competition, and solid takedown defense. He notes Maycee Barber has been taken down nine times in the UFC and two of her wins were questionable decisions. He expects Ribas to come forward, stay busy, use takedowns, and win an easy decision. He also calls it an over 2.5 rounds play.

over 2.5 rounds
"Amanda hebos is sitting at a comfortable minus 185 and that honestly makes a ton of sense"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Amanda Ribas

Big Brady picks Amanda Ribas, citing her superior wrestling and BJJ. He notes Barber's poor takedown defense (47%) and that she was taken down five times by Andrea Lee. He believes Ribas will easily take Barber down and control her on the ground, unlike Andrea Lee who let Barber get up. He predicts a decision win but warns that judges favor Barber.

"give me he boss to win this fight Win It by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Amanda Ribas

Cody agrees with Paul, picking Ribas. He highlights Barber's takedown defense issues, especially against Andrea Lee, and believes Ribas's superior jiu-jitsu and top control will be decisive. He notes the minus 200 price is not a betting opportunity but for the show he picks Ribas.

"I'll pick he was in it really kind of comes down to the Andrea Lee five takedowns."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Amanda Ribas

Connor picks Ribas, agreeing with Zane that Ribas is the better fighter. He highlights Barber's awkwardness and physicality but notes that Ribas is a legitimate takedown artist and better grappler. Connor points out that Andrea Lee took Barber down five times, which bodes well for Ribas. He sees a small margin for error for Ribas due to Barber's power and toughness, but expects Ribas to win via superior technique.

Ribas is more likely to finish via submission; Barber unlikely to KO Ribas cleanly. Fight likely goes to decision.
"I side with you on that."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Amanda Ribas

Daniel Levi picks Amanda Ribas, citing her technical superiority everywhere the fight goes. He notes Barber's power but believes Ribas's grappling will be the difference, as Barber was taken down five times by Andrea Lee. He thinks Ribas will get takedowns and control the fight, possibly finishing. He mentions he got in at -145 and considers -200 a dog-or-pass situation.

Got in at -145; now dog or pass at -200.
"pure pick hebosh but I think at Plus 170. it's dog or pass like I said you got in minus 145 you did your job"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Amanda Ribas

The host picks Amanda Ribas to win by decision. He believes Ribas is a far superior grappler and that she can take Barber down and control the fight from top position. He notes Barber's takedown defense issues and thinks Ribas's pressure and pace will be key. He acknowledges Barber's power and explosivity on the feet but expects Ribas to grind out a decision victory.

"I fully expect he boss to control the majority of this fight and take home a decision victory"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Amanda Ribas

Paul picks Ribas, emphasizing her wrestling and grappling to neutralize Barber. He notes Ribas's improvements and her ability to take down opponents, while Barber has plateaued and struggles with takedown defense. He thinks the plus money on Barber is tempting but can't get there.

"I gotta go with hebis man if we're looking at a stylistical approach she's got the style she's got the the wrestling and she's got the grappling to just neutralize Barber."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Amanda Ribas

The Guru initially leaned Maycee Barber but switched to Amanda Ribas after counter-arguing his own points. He notes Ribas has a better chin at flyweight, a big advantage on the ground, and outpoints at range with reach. He criticizes Barber's win over Miranda Maverick as a robbery and points out that Maverick was recently dominated by Jasudavicius, undermining Barber's credentials. He also mentions Ribas' wins over Araujo and Jandiroba, and her competitive fight with Chookagian.

"I was gonna pick Macy Barber to win but I'm not sure now I'm picking Amanda rib ass now"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Amanda Ribas

Zane picks Ribas, comparing the matchup to Jaco vs Eric Anders. He notes Ribas is the better technical fighter with superior wrestling and grappling, and expects her to come out ahead in the chaotic exchanges. He acknowledges Barber's athleticism and toughness but believes Ribas's transitional grappling and ability to work on the ground will be decisive. Zane sees Barber's technical limitations and poor wrestling as key vulnerabilities.

Ribas opened -154 now -191; Barber +121 to +170. Likely decision, but Ribas could submit Barber.
"I got I think I got to pick Hiebesch in what will be like a pretty car crashy kind of fight."
Decision (unanimous) (29–27, 30–26, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane · Mar 04, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Amanda Ribas 0 46 of 115 40% 86 of 162 0 of 0 --- 2 0 0:00
Viviane Araújo 0 98 of 183 53% 205 of 320 2 of 2 100% 0 0 8:20
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Amanda Ribas 0 18 of 48 37% 35 of 65 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Viviane Araújo 0 31 of 71 43% 48 of 91 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:25
2 Amanda Ribas 0 4 of 8 50% 15 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Viviane Araújo 0 9 of 15 60% 81 of 112 0 of 0 --- 0 0 4:40
3 Amanda Ribas 0 24 of 59 40% 36 of 73 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Viviane Araújo 0 58 of 97 59% 76 of 117 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:15
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Amanda Ribas 46 of 115 40% 37 of 105 5 of 6 4 of 4 45 of 114 0 of 0 1 of 1
Viviane Araújo 98 of 183 53% 71 of 149 11 of 16 16 of 18 93 of 176 0 of 0 5 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Amanda Ribas 18 of 48 37% 13 of 42 3 of 4 2 of 2 18 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
Viviane Araújo 31 of 71 43% 20 of 58 4 of 4 7 of 9 31 of 70 0 of 0 0 of 1
2 Amanda Ribas 4 of 8 50% 3 of 7 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 7 0 of 0 1 of 1
Viviane Araújo 9 of 15 60% 7 of 13 1 of 1 1 of 1 4 of 9 0 of 0 5 of 6
3 Amanda Ribas 24 of 59 40% 21 of 56 1 of 1 2 of 2 24 of 59 0 of 0 0 of 0
Viviane Araújo 58 of 97 59% 44 of 78 6 of 11 8 of 8 58 of 97 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Amanda Ribas

Angelo picks Amanda Ribas, citing her faster striking and better cardio. He notes that Viviane Araújo is more dangerous early but fades as the fight goes on. Angelo believes Ribas can point her way to a decision if she stays on the outside and works her striking.

"Amanda he boss is going to win this fight um I think the odds are probably probably good"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Viviane Araújo

Big Brady picks Viviane Araújo but is hesitant due to her cardio issues. He notes she has 90% takedown defense and is the better striker, but she tends to slow down after the first round. He predicts a 29-28 decision for Araújo, acknowledging Ribas may take the third round.

"I will take Vivian every yujo to win this fight by 28 29-28 decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Viviane Araújo

Cody picks Araújo, believing her takedown defense and striking will be enough to keep the fight standing and win rounds. He notes her cardio issues but thinks she can win two of three rounds. He sees value at plus money.

"I'm gonna go with Viviana ruizio actually it's basically a pick em type fight"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Viviane Araújo

Connor picks Viviane Araújo, believing her improved striking and range management will allow her to outwork Ribas. He notes that Ribas's striking is technically poor and she relies on aggression and transitions, but Araújo's takedown defense is solid and she is a better athlete. Connor thinks Ribas will struggle to get the fight to the ground and will be picked apart on the feet.

"I guess I I like I like Viviana here."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Hesitant picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Amanda Ribas

Jacob picks Amanda Ribas but is scared, noting that Araújo is dangerous early and hits hard. He believes Ribas can take over in the second and third rounds as Araújo's cardio fades. Jacob does not have a straight bet on Ribas due to the risk.

"I'm picking Amanda but honestly I'm scared out of my mind"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Viviane Araújo

Araújo is a solid striker with good power and leg kicks. Ribas has average striking and gets flustered against better strikers. Araújo's takedown defense should hold up, keeping the fight standing where she has the advantage, and she wins a decision.

"I think her more effective striking style is going to allow her to distance herself from he boss here... I think that we'll see Russo just beat her to the punch over and over again battering her on route to …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Amanda Ribas

Paul picks Ribas, citing her youth and takedown ability. He thinks she can get takedowns and control the fight. He acknowledges it's a close fight and won't bet it, but for picks he goes with Ribas.

"I'll be picking hibis but uh but yeah not not one that I feel like I can really attack"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Amanda Ribas

The MMA Guru picks Amanda Ribas, citing her youth and potential versus Araújo's age. He believes Ribas has a submission advantage and a better chin, predicting a close 29-28 decision.

"I'm gonna go with Amanda Ribas over Vivian arawaho... I think she gets this one done by again a close 29-28 decision."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Viviane Araújo

Zane also picks Araújo, agreeing that her improved striking and ability to stay at range will be key. He notes that Ribas's best wins are against lower-level competition and that her grappling success may not translate against Araújo's strong takedown defense. Zane adds that Araújo is more accurate and self-contained, and Ribas's aggressive style will leave her open to counters.

"I think I got a pic vivier Aja."
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Blachowicz vs. Rakic · May 14, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Katlyn Cerminara 0 63 of 222 28% 71 of 230 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:06
Amanda Ribas 0 55 of 169 32% 84 of 204 3 of 6 50% 0 0 4:49
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Katlyn Cerminara 0 20 of 62 32% 25 of 67 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Amanda Ribas 0 7 of 34 20% 15 of 45 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:30
2 Katlyn Cerminara 0 24 of 61 39% 27 of 64 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:06
Amanda Ribas 0 15 of 46 32% 28 of 62 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:01
3 Katlyn Cerminara 0 19 of 99 19% 19 of 99 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Amanda Ribas 0 33 of 89 37% 41 of 97 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:18
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Katlyn Cerminara 63 of 222 28% 42 of 175 20 of 44 1 of 3 56 of 210 7 of 12 0 of 0
Amanda Ribas 55 of 169 32% 28 of 124 8 of 23 19 of 22 49 of 156 3 of 7 3 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Katlyn Cerminara 20 of 62 32% 13 of 46 7 of 15 0 of 1 17 of 59 3 of 3 0 of 0
Amanda Ribas 7 of 34 20% 5 of 28 1 of 4 1 of 2 4 of 29 1 of 2 2 of 3
2 Katlyn Cerminara 24 of 61 39% 17 of 48 6 of 12 1 of 1 23 of 57 1 of 4 0 of 0
Amanda Ribas 15 of 46 32% 7 of 34 2 of 5 6 of 7 13 of 41 1 of 2 1 of 3
3 Katlyn Cerminara 19 of 99 19% 12 of 81 7 of 17 0 of 1 16 of 94 3 of 5 0 of 0
Amanda Ribas 33 of 89 37% 16 of 62 5 of 14 12 of 13 32 of 86 1 of 3 0 of 0
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 11, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Katlyn Cerminara

Cody picks Chookagian, agreeing she is a rightful favorite. He notes Ribas has been matched softly and showed limitations against Marina Rodriguez. He thinks Chookagian will out-volume Ribas on the outside, stuff takedowns, and win a decision. He mentions Chookagian's grappling has improved.

"i think it's probably decision i think it's probably just going to be one of these try to keep ahead on the punch stats and stay to the outside type fights but caitlyn jake again rightful favorite and i uh …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 11, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Katlyn Cerminara

Paul is very confident in Chookagian by decision, calling it one of his first bets. He notes she out-volumes everyone, only gets finished by elite fighters, and Ribas's wrestling isn't good enough. He says 95% of her win probability is tied to a decision, and the decision prop at +120 is great value.

Chookagian by decision +120
"don't overthink this fight you just take shook by decision and be on your way i mean she pretty much out volumes everyone that she takes on she only ever really gets finished by you know the jessica andrades or …"
Luana Pinheiro - Fight History
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · May 17, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tecia Pennington 0 63 of 127 49% 78 of 149 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:44
Luana Pinheiro 0 40 of 110 36% 46 of 118 5 of 10 50% 0 0 1:42
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tecia Pennington 0 26 of 61 42% 30 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Luana Pinheiro 0 16 of 51 31% 19 of 55 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:08
2 Tecia Pennington 0 18 of 38 47% 21 of 45 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:27
Luana Pinheiro 0 20 of 39 51% 20 of 39 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Tecia Pennington 0 19 of 28 67% 27 of 37 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:17
Luana Pinheiro 0 4 of 20 20% 7 of 24 5 of 6 83% 0 0 1:34
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tecia Pennington 63 of 127 49% 34 of 82 10 of 17 19 of 28 56 of 109 7 of 18 0 of 0
Luana Pinheiro 40 of 110 36% 23 of 85 5 of 9 12 of 16 33 of 95 7 of 15 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tecia Pennington 26 of 61 42% 18 of 42 2 of 6 6 of 13 21 of 51 5 of 10 0 of 0
Luana Pinheiro 16 of 51 31% 11 of 44 3 of 4 2 of 3 11 of 43 5 of 8 0 of 0
2 Tecia Pennington 18 of 38 47% 8 of 25 2 of 5 8 of 8 17 of 35 1 of 3 0 of 0
Luana Pinheiro 20 of 39 51% 11 of 26 2 of 5 7 of 8 18 of 35 2 of 4 0 of 0
3 Tecia Pennington 19 of 28 67% 8 of 15 6 of 6 5 of 7 18 of 23 1 of 5 0 of 0
Luana Pinheiro 4 of 20 20% 1 of 15 0 of 0 3 of 5 4 of 17 0 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 11, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Tecia Pennington

Angelo picks Tecia Pennington, stating she should win all day long. He notes that Pennington is good everywhere, with good boxing, solid grappling, and insane cardio. He acknowledges that the line at -400 is a little sketchy but believes she wins more often than not. He suggests the over might be more affordable and advises keeping an eye on the over line.

Angelo suggests the over might be more affordable than Pennington's moneyline and advises keeping an eye on the over line.
"This should be Tisha all day long. The line reflects that at four to one favorite here."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 15, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Tecia Pennington

Big Brady picks Tecia Pennington, noting that Luana Pinheiro fades after the 7.5-minute mark. He argues Pennington's losses are to elite fighters in close decisions, and a loss to Pinheiro would be her worst ever. He expects Pennington to win by decision.

Pennington by decision
"I got to go Pennington. You know, she's not somebody you typically want to lay minus 350 on, but I will pick her to win. And I'll pick her to win by decision."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked May 16, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Luana Pinheiro

The host is surprised Pennington is such a big favorite, believing Pinheiro matches her in physicality and may be the better striker in terms of landing significant damage. He sees Pinheiro as very live to pull off the upset and picks her to win by decision. However, the pick is not made with high confidence, as he acknowledges the line is surprising.

Pinheiro by decision
"I'm going to start with her to pull off the upset to to begin the card by decision."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 16, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Tecia Pennington

The Guru picks Tecia Pennington, calling her underrated and strong for the division. He believes she scrambles well and won't be outgrappled by Luana Pinheiro. He notes Pennington was robbed in past decisions against Mackenzie Dern and Tabatha Ricci, and thinks she is better overall. He predicts a 29-28 decision win.

Pennington to land more than 64.5 significant strikes (via Prize Picks)
"I think this is a pretty easy Tisha Pennington decision win."
Decision (unanimous) (29–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prates · Nov 09, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Gillian Robertson 0 42 of 105 40% 63 of 128 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:17
Luana Pinheiro 0 52 of 108 48% 78 of 145 5 of 17 29% 0 1 8:13
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Gillian Robertson 0 14 of 38 36% 16 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Luana Pinheiro 0 15 of 32 46% 15 of 35 3 of 8 37% 0 0 2:33
2 Gillian Robertson 0 25 of 61 40% 29 of 65 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Luana Pinheiro 0 20 of 47 42% 22 of 55 1 of 6 16% 0 0 1:22
3 Gillian Robertson 0 3 of 6 50% 18 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:13
Luana Pinheiro 0 17 of 29 58% 41 of 55 1 of 3 33% 0 1 4:18
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Gillian Robertson 42 of 105 40% 23 of 84 16 of 18 3 of 3 41 of 102 1 of 3 0 of 0
Luana Pinheiro 52 of 108 48% 33 of 72 5 of 18 14 of 18 28 of 76 4 of 4 20 of 28
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Gillian Robertson 14 of 38 36% 8 of 32 5 of 5 1 of 1 14 of 37 0 of 1 0 of 0
Luana Pinheiro 15 of 32 46% 6 of 17 2 of 5 7 of 10 9 of 23 1 of 1 5 of 8
2 Gillian Robertson 25 of 61 40% 13 of 48 11 of 12 1 of 1 24 of 59 1 of 2 0 of 0
Luana Pinheiro 20 of 47 42% 11 of 32 3 of 9 6 of 6 17 of 44 3 of 3 0 of 0
3 Gillian Robertson 3 of 6 50% 2 of 4 0 of 1 1 of 1 3 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Luana Pinheiro 17 of 29 58% 16 of 23 0 of 4 1 of 2 2 of 9 0 of 0 15 of 20
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 3, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Angelo argues that since Luana Pinheiro was submitted by Angela Hill (the least dangerous grappler), she will certainly be submitted by Gillian Robertson, who has the most submission wins in flyweight history. He acknowledges Pinheiro has decent takedown defense and striking, but the MMA math leads him to Robertson. He calls it the only logical conclusion.

"Jillian Robertson has to be the pick here that has to be the only logical conclusion that you could draw so Jillian Robertson's the pick simple done"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Big Brady believes this is a terrible matchup for Pinheiro, who fades after 7.5 minutes and has been submitted before. He praises Robertson's size, strength, cardio, and ground game, predicting she will take over late and submit Pinheiro in the second round.

Robertson by submission, round 2
"I'll take Jillian Robertson second round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Cody echoes Paul's concerns about Pinheiro's wrestling and notes her quit in the Ronda Marcos fight. He highlights Robertson's high ring IQ and ability to grind opponents down with ground and pound. Cody expects Robertson to dominate on the mat and finish or win a clear decision.

"I think Jullian Robertson rolls here I would love the CF dot model myself but minus 400 favorite seems pretty accurate for Robertson."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Pinheiro's striking is aimless and formless. He thinks Robertson can ride out Pinheiro's initial success and eventually get her to the mat. He expects a submission win for Robertson.

"I think Robertson can ride out Pinero's success and eventually get her to the mat and start beating her."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Daniel Vreeland confidently picks Gillian Robertson, highlighting her record for most submission wins in UFC women's history and her ability to get takedowns. He criticizes Luana Pinheiro's toughness and cites past performances where Pinheiro was taken down and submitted by lesser grapplers. Vreeland expects Robertson to dominate on the ground and secure a finish.

"My pick is Julian Robertson."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 5, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Lucrative James confidently picks Gillian Robertson to win by submission. He highlights that Robertson has more physicality at strawweight and is a dangerous BJJ artist, while Pinheiro has cardio issues and is not strong in grappling. He predicts Robertson will get top position and finish via rear-naked choke or armbar, and also suggests the fight won't go to decision.

by submission, fight doesn't go to decision, under 2.5 rounds
"Julian Robinson to win via submission"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 8, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Gillian Robertson

This is a horrible stylistic matchup for Pinheiro. If she can't get success in the first round, Robertson will wear her down with pressure and pace, leading to a submission victory in round two.

wins by submission, round 2
"this is a horrible stylistic match up for Pinero if she's unable to get success in the first round which will eventually lead to Robertson wearing her down with the pressure and Pace eventually leading to a submission victory for …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Paul sees Pinheiro's takedown defense as a major red flag, citing her struggles against Angela Hill and Michelle Waterson. He believes Robertson's relentless top control and submission threats will be too much. Paul likes Robertson by submission and thinks the -400 line is accurate.

Robertson by submission
"I think like plus 140 Jillian Robertson by sub is how I would bet this fight."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

The Guru picks Gillian Robertson, citing her grappling advantage and recent submission wins. He notes Luana Pinheiro's two-fight losing streak and that Robertson is a big favorite. He expects Robertson to implement her grappling and get a submission or TKO finish.

submission or TKO finish
"I'll go Julian Robertson getting her grappling off and implementing that part of her game"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Zane picks Robertson confidently. He notes that Pinheiro has a one-dimensional judo clinch game and no real striking. Robertson is a diligent takedown artist and ruthless on the ground. He expects Robertson to get the takedown and likely submit Pinheiro.

"I'm going to pick Jillian Robertson to beat her."
LOSS vs Angela Hill
Submission (guillotine choke) R2 4:12 · UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy · May 18, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Angela Hill 0 17 of 60 28% 25 of 77 1 of 7 14% 0 0 0:04
Luana Pinheiro 0 28 of 79 35% 39 of 91 2 of 6 33% 1 1 3:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Angela Hill 0 7 of 20 35% 14 of 36 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Luana Pinheiro 0 8 of 34 23% 15 of 42 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:03
2 Angela Hill 0 10 of 40 25% 11 of 41 1 of 5 20% 0 0 0:04
Luana Pinheiro 0 20 of 45 44% 24 of 49 0 of 4 0% 1 1 1:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Angela Hill 17 of 60 28% 11 of 51 3 of 6 3 of 3 15 of 54 2 of 6 0 of 0
Luana Pinheiro 28 of 79 35% 19 of 64 9 of 15 0 of 0 21 of 71 3 of 3 4 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Angela Hill 7 of 20 35% 6 of 19 0 of 0 1 of 1 6 of 17 1 of 3 0 of 0
Luana Pinheiro 8 of 34 23% 8 of 29 0 of 5 0 of 0 4 of 29 0 of 0 4 of 5
2 Angela Hill 10 of 40 25% 5 of 32 3 of 6 2 of 2 9 of 37 1 of 3 0 of 0
Luana Pinheiro 20 of 45 44% 11 of 35 9 of 10 0 of 0 17 of 42 3 of 3 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Luana Pinheiro vs. Angela Hill
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Hill (-135), Pinheiro (+114)

Round 1
It’s on with the main card. Two strawweights on the outside of the top 15 looking in—the UFC does have one of them ranked—will come to blows in hopes of making that next big step towards contention. Pinheiro (11-2, 3-1 UFC) will be looking to get back into the green after her last outing saw her nine-fight win streak snapped violently. On the other side of the equation, divisional staple Hill (16-13, 11-13 UFC) has won three of our last four and is on a solid run despite turning 39 in January. Referee Herb Dean is ready for the long haul, and the women are too as they get right to it with no consideration of a glove touch. Hill feints her way forward, flicking out a front kick to test the waters and find her range. Pinheiro circles to both directions, and Hill cuts her off and pitches out a high kick that is several feet away from her intended target. Hill leaps forward with two right hands, both still too distant. Hill closes in, but the first actual strike landing is a calf kick from the Brazilian. Both women throw and land simultaneous right hands, and Pinheiro keeps her left hand ready to release. Hill puts the ball of her foot on Pinheiro’s torso, and she continues to walk Pinheiro down winging a right hand. The two women stick out jabs, and Pinheiro shoots for a takedown but cannot get anywhere. Hill backs away from a right hand, and she meanders forward and tosses out a head kick that is inaccurate. Pinheiro stick out a jab that marks up Hill’s nose, and they rush towards one another and start trading. Pinheiro looks to mix things up and throw Hill to the floor, but “Overkill” keeps her balance and pushes Pinheiro back to the fencing. Pinheiro jumps guard with a guillotine choke, and Hill threatens back with a Von Preux shoulder choke all while looking to establish better top position. Pinheiro releases her choke so that she does not get countered, and Hill lands a solid right hand before getting pushed off by Pinheiro’s flailing legs. Pinheiro gets off an upkick or two, and Hill pounces and bops her in the noggin with a right hand. Hill gets backed off with upkicks, and she connects with two mean standing-to-ground punches. Pinheiro jumps back to her feet, and Hill hurls her back down and lands a few strikes before the bell sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hill
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Hill
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Hill

Round 2
Pinheiro races out of her corner to engage, only for Hill to jab her back. Pinheiro loads upon on a power right hand, and when that misses, she leans back as one from Hill buzzes past her as well. Pinheiro splits the guard with a front kick, and Hill flirts with a single-leg takedown and comes over the top with a right. Pinheiro pirouettes with a back fist, and Hill’s guard is high enough to protect her. Pinheiro uses her jab effectively to score, and she times a right hand over the top. When Hill crowds her, Pinheiro lands hard again and grins to celebrate her handiwork. Pinheiro spins with a back fist, and Hill sees it coming and ducks it so she can throw Pinheiro to the ground. Pinheiro grabs the fence a few times to stay afloat, and Dean warns her for the fouls. The two fight for position in the clinch when Hill’s takedown comes up short, and Hill stifles a trip that Pinheiro offers back. Pinheiro escapes the clinch, and Hill gives chase with a front kick and a stabbing jab that snaps the head back. They both go after high kicks, and Hill tries a jumping switch kick and a high kick that both miss the mark. Hill misses with a head kick, and she knocks Pinheiro off her feet with a lunging jab. Pinheiro hops back up, and Hill is on her with pressure and strikes. Pinheiro shoots for a takedown, and Hill stops it and clings to a guillotine choke that she uses to knee the Brazilian in the head. Pinheiro escapes, and Hill runs at her and kicks her in the face. Pinheiro swings back and lands a left hand that cuts Hill’s eye, and Pinheiro shoots for a takedown.
Hill snatches up the neck while stuffing the attempt, and she sits down with a guillotine choke. When they hit the ground, Hill sweeps to claim the mounted guillotine, and the choke is crushingly tight. Pinheiro, who holds most of her finishes by submission while never suffering a submission loss, taps out.
Hill punts an 11-fight consecutive streak of fights going the distance with her tapout victory, and she is so excited when Dean intervenes that she does not know what to do with her hands. Hill figures it out and offers to help the defeated Pinheiro back to her feet, and she jumps into the arms of her corner to celebrate her first-ever submission win.

The Official Result
Angela Hill def. Luana Pinheiro R2 4:12 via Submission (Guillotine Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 12, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Angela Hill

Angela Hill is a veteran with high fight IQ, good speed, volume, and versatility, though she lacks power. Luana Pinheiro is a powerful striker with solid takedowns and BJJ, but Hill's experience and game planning should prevail. Hill recently showed she can wrestle, and Angelo expects her to stick to a game plan and win a decision.

"Angela Hill is going to be the pick"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Angela Hill

Cody highlights Pinheiro's pattern of coming out fast and then gassing, as seen against Amanda Lemos and Randa Markos. He believes Hill's technical striking, footwork, and cardio will allow her to weather the early storm and take over in later rounds. Cody also notes Hill's improved wrestling, which she used to get five takedowns against Denise Gomes.

"I'll take her on one of those."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Angela Hill

Pinheiro is effective early but slows down, and Hill has improved her takedown defense and getups. Hill's volume and cardio advantage will allow her to piece up Pinheiro in the later rounds. Hill has derailed prospects before and should keep the fight standing. Expects Hill to win a decision.

"I do think it's the veteran Angela Hill as The Slight favorite who ends up getting her hand raised by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Angela Hill

Paul expects Hill to use her veteran savvy and volume to outwork Pinheiro, who has a history of gassing after a fast start. He notes Hill's technical striking and footwork will allow her to capitalize as the fight goes on. Paul also mentions Hill's recent use of wrestling as a new wrinkle.

"I actually do like Angela Hill to get the job done here."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Angela Hill

The MMA Guru picks Angela Hill over Luana Pinheiro, calling Pinheiro 'quite [__]'. He argues that Hill has a misrepresented record with several robbery losses, and that she is difficult to finish. He believes Hill will outwork Pinheiro over three rounds and win a decision, as Pinheiro barely scraped by against Michelle Waterson.

"I'll go Angela Hill over Lana Pano I think Lana Pano is quite [__] so I'll go with Angela Hill"
LOSS vs Amanda Ribas
TKO (spinning wheel kick and punches) R3 3:53 · UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig · Nov 18, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Amanda Ribas 0 55 of 116 47% 56 of 120 1 of 6 16% 0 0 1:11
Luana Pinheiro 1 87 of 224 38% 96 of 234 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:30
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Amanda Ribas 0 25 of 54 46% 25 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Luana Pinheiro 0 18 of 69 26% 19 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:16
2 Amanda Ribas 0 18 of 35 51% 18 of 36 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Luana Pinheiro 0 40 of 98 40% 40 of 98 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Amanda Ribas 0 12 of 27 44% 13 of 30 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:11
Luana Pinheiro 1 29 of 57 50% 37 of 66 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:14
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Amanda Ribas 55 of 116 47% 36 of 86 11 of 18 8 of 12 51 of 109 4 of 6 0 of 1
Luana Pinheiro 87 of 224 38% 57 of 158 8 of 29 22 of 37 81 of 212 3 of 6 3 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Amanda Ribas 25 of 54 46% 17 of 42 4 of 7 4 of 5 24 of 52 1 of 2 0 of 0
Luana Pinheiro 18 of 69 26% 12 of 51 1 of 8 5 of 10 17 of 68 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Amanda Ribas 18 of 35 51% 11 of 23 4 of 7 3 of 5 18 of 35 0 of 0 0 of 0
Luana Pinheiro 40 of 98 40% 23 of 64 3 of 14 14 of 20 39 of 96 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 Amanda Ribas 12 of 27 44% 8 of 21 3 of 4 1 of 2 9 of 22 3 of 4 0 of 1
Luana Pinheiro 29 of 57 50% 22 of 43 4 of 7 3 of 7 25 of 48 1 of 3 3 of 6
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Amanda Ribas

Angelo picks Amanda Ribas, expecting her to use her size and strength to grind out a win. He notes she is well-rounded with solid takedown defense and cardio. He warns she must stay controlled and not get sucked into a brawl. He also mentions a prop bet on Luana Pinheiro inside the distance.

Bet on Luana Pinheiro inside the distance (decision no action)
"Amanda's going to be the pick here but honestly the bet is going to be Lanna Panera inside the distance decision no action"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Nov 17, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Amanda Ribas

Big Brady thinks Ribas is better everywhere—striking, wrestling, grappling, cardio—but her chin is very bad, having been dropped and knocked out multiple times. He finds it hard to pick Pinheiro, who he doesn't think is that great, to win by knockout. He predicts Ribas wins by decision but calls it a sketchy fight due to durability concerns.

"I'm going to pick heos to win this fight by decision but a sketchy fight to be honest"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Amanda Ribas

Cody picks Amanda Ribas, citing her takedown offense and volume striking. He notes that Pinheiro is a front-runner who tires, and Ribas can mix in takedowns and striking to win. He acknowledges Ribas took damage in her last fight but believes she has the dog in her to win.

"I'll pick heus as well to win on volume and just that she has that hashtag dog in her"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Nov 17, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Luana Pinheiro

Pinheiro has good striking power and can hurt Ribas on the feet. Ribas's grappling is a threat, but Pinheiro is strong enough to keep it standing. Pinheiro's power punches can find the button and knock Ribas out, likely in the second round. The line is too wide; Pinheiro has value at plus money.

win by knockout
"give me Pinero and I think I'm going to go down a limb here uh and I'm going to take her to win this fight by knockout low confidence but I think she can find the button on heos and …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Amanda Ribas

Paul picks Ribas, noting her takedown accuracy and ability to grind. He points out that Pinheiro gasses and has questionable durability. Paul believes Ribas can take her down, tire her, and open up striking. He mentions Ribas' loss to Barber but thinks Pinheiro lacks that finishing ability.

"I'm going to end up going with heos"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Nov 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Amanda Ribas

The MMA Guru picks Amanda Ribas despite concerns about her chin after being knocked out at flyweight. He criticizes Luana Pinheiro's record as padded, noting her controversial win over Michelle Waterson and a fake knockout against Randa Markos. He believes Ribas has a massive reach advantage and that Pinheiro lacks the power to finish her, predicting a 29-28 decision win.

decision 29-28
"I am going to go Amanda Ribas here... I don't see Pinheiro having the power to finish her at this point so I'm going to go Ribas wins a decision 29-28."
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2 · Apr 08, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Luana Pinheiro 0 61 of 188 32% 70 of 199 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:01
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 0 44 of 122 36% 48 of 132 0 of 5 0% 0 0 1:25
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Luana Pinheiro 0 20 of 67 29% 20 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 0 15 of 43 34% 15 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
2 Luana Pinheiro 0 19 of 62 30% 22 of 65 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 0 19 of 50 38% 20 of 55 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:47
3 Luana Pinheiro 0 22 of 59 37% 28 of 67 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:01
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 0 10 of 29 34% 13 of 34 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:37
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Luana Pinheiro 61 of 188 32% 18 of 114 16 of 34 27 of 40 53 of 178 8 of 10 0 of 0
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 44 of 122 36% 16 of 79 15 of 21 13 of 22 38 of 109 6 of 13 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Luana Pinheiro 20 of 67 29% 5 of 39 4 of 11 11 of 17 20 of 67 0 of 0 0 of 0
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 15 of 43 34% 5 of 29 4 of 6 6 of 8 14 of 42 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Luana Pinheiro 19 of 62 30% 9 of 43 4 of 7 6 of 12 18 of 59 1 of 3 0 of 0
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 19 of 50 38% 9 of 34 5 of 7 5 of 9 15 of 42 4 of 8 0 of 0
3 Luana Pinheiro 22 of 59 37% 4 of 32 8 of 16 10 of 11 15 of 52 7 of 7 0 of 0
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 10 of 29 34% 2 of 16 6 of 8 2 of 5 9 of 25 1 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Luana Pinheiro

Angelo picks Luana Pinheiro but with low confidence, citing age and career trajectory. He notes that Luana is a powerful striker with solid takedowns, but Michelle Waterson has veteran savvy and is the better overall striker. He is concerned about Luana coming off major knee surgery, which could affect her athleticism. He thinks Michelle is very live as an underdog.

"Luana should win right luana's got great wrestling"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Apr 3, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Michelle Waterson-Gomez

Big Brady picks Michelle Waterson-Gomez as an underdog, citing the massive step down in competition for Waterson. He notes that Pinheiro has a strong judo and early power but fades as the fight goes on. He believes Waterson's striking and experience will allow her to take over in later rounds. He is hesitant due to Waterson's age (37) but sees value.

"I will take Michelle Waterson Gomez to pull off the upset here and win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Michelle Waterson-Gomez

Cody picks Waterson as a value play. He thinks the fight is closer to 50-50 than the line suggests, so he sides with the plus money. He notes Pinheiro hasn't proven much and her DQ win over Randa Marcos was unimpressive. However, he doesn't love the pick and says he probably won't bet it. He acknowledges Waterson is at the end of her career.

"I'll side with what I think there's a value side in Michelle Crotty the karate hottie uh Waterson at plus 140 but don't love it"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Michelle Waterson-Gomez

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Waterson. He notes that Pinheiro is raw and that Waterson is a competent, tough, high-level fighter who knows how to win. Connor also mentions that Pinheiro's potential hasn't been realized yet.

"I guess I'll side with you and take Watterson here."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Michelle Waterson-Gomez

Jacob flips to Michelle Waterson after film study, noting that Luana's takedowns are almost all Judo headlock throws that work against lower-level opponents. He believes Michelle's experience and superior striking will allow her to stay out of the clinch and dominate. He also points out that Luana is coming off major knee surgery, which could be a factor.

"I flip completely I think Michelle Waterson can dominate this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Apr 3, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Michelle Waterson-Gomez

Waterson-Gomez is a veteran with good movement, kicks, and underrated grappling. Pinheiro has power and a strong top game but questionable cardio and competition level. I think Waterson's experience and ability to stay at range will wear on Pinheiro's gas tank, leading to a decision win. However, I lack high confidence because Pinheiro could land effective damage early.

"I'm going to lean with the experience and the veteran Savvy of a girl like or a woman like Michelle Waterson Gomez and I think she wins this fight by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Luana Pinheiro

Paul picks Pinheiro but is hesitant. He notes Pinheiro is younger, stronger, and has better wrestling and power. He thinks Pinheiro can take Waterson down and win rounds. However, he acknowledges Waterson's experience and fan-friendly style could lead to a close split decision in Florida. Paul says this is a low-confidence pick and not a top play.

"I will take Pinero it is I'm gonna put it way down the list this week"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2023 (fight day)
Michelle Waterson-Gomez

The MMA Guru picks Michelle Waterson to win by 29-28 decision. He describes it as a 'snooze fest' where Waterson will use fight IQ to secure a takedown at the end of each round, stealing the rounds on the scorecards. He expects a close fight with little action, but Waterson's experience and late-round takedowns will be the difference.

"I'm gonna go with Michelle Waterson doing that"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Michelle Waterson-Gomez

Zane picks Waterson because she is a crafty veteran who can stay tight and technical, taking Pinheiro off her feet with takedowns. He notes that Pinheiro's game is raw and she doesn't have a great top game or method to get ground and pound. Zane also mentions that Waterson is tough to knock out and has good reactive shots.

"I'm definitely going to take Watterson with the toughness and the grappling to just find ways of not having to have a physical fight with Piniero on the feet."
WIN vs Sam Hughes
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Vieira vs. Tate · Nov 20, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Luana Pinheiro 1 60 of 159 37% 67 of 170 2 of 3 66% 1 0 2:07
Sam Hughes 0 53 of 130 40% 65 of 147 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Luana Pinheiro 0 11 of 39 28% 16 of 45 2 of 2 100% 1 0 1:51
Sam Hughes 0 11 of 27 40% 22 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Luana Pinheiro 1 23 of 63 36% 24 of 67 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:16
Sam Hughes 0 19 of 47 40% 20 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
3 Luana Pinheiro 0 26 of 57 45% 27 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sam Hughes 0 23 of 56 41% 23 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Luana Pinheiro 60 of 159 37% 40 of 126 14 of 25 6 of 8 53 of 148 2 of 4 5 of 7
Sam Hughes 53 of 130 40% 23 of 72 6 of 22 24 of 36 50 of 126 3 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Luana Pinheiro 11 of 39 28% 5 of 30 4 of 6 2 of 3 10 of 37 0 of 1 1 of 1
Sam Hughes 11 of 27 40% 3 of 11 2 of 4 6 of 12 11 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Luana Pinheiro 23 of 63 36% 20 of 56 2 of 6 1 of 1 18 of 55 1 of 2 4 of 6
Sam Hughes 19 of 47 40% 9 of 28 2 of 9 8 of 10 19 of 46 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Luana Pinheiro 26 of 57 45% 15 of 40 8 of 13 3 of 4 25 of 56 1 of 1 0 of 0
Sam Hughes 23 of 56 41% 11 of 33 2 of 9 10 of 14 20 of 53 3 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 17, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Luana Pinheiro

Angelo picks Luana Pinheiro, citing her power striking, solid takedowns, and BJJ. He notes Sam Hughes is tough but hittable with a negative striking differential, and that Luana's grappling will be the difference. He expects a decision win rather than a finish, as Luana doesn't have one-punch KO power. He mentions the odds are probably correct at -290.

Decision win expected; DraftKings price 9300 for Luana, 6900 for Sam; monkey knife fight more/more
"luanna is the pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 16, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Luana Pinheiro

Big Brady picks Luana Pinheiro to win by first-round finish. He notes Pinheiro's phenomenal judo and ability to get the fight to the mat, but also highlights her gas tank issues as she hasn't seen the second round in over seven fights. He believes Sam Hughes' 44% takedown defense is a major hole and that Pinheiro will exploit it early. However, he warns that if Hughes survives the first round, the fight could get sketchy for Pinheiro.

first round finish
"I'm going to take her to win by first round finish I think she does get sam hughes out of there"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 18, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Luana Pinheiro

Cody picks Pinheiro but is concerned about her cardio. He notes that all her wins are first-round finishes and she lost a decision when the fight went past the first round. However, he believes her judo and grappling are superior to Hughes's. He thinks Pinheiro will likely finish Hughes early, but if it goes longer, she may fade. He recommends betting Pinheiro inside the distance at plus money to mitigate the cardio risk.

Cody suggests betting Pinheiro inside the distance at plus money rather than the moneyline. He mentions that plus money across the board for her to win inside the distance is available.
"pinero inside the distance plus money is probably something i'm gonna add to the card here"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 18, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Luana Pinheiro

Daniel Levi picks Luana Pinheiro to win by armbar. He notes her judo throws and power, but worries about her panic when fights go past the first round. He criticizes Sam Hughes for being hesitant and timid, and believes Pinheiro will build a 10-8 round early and cruise to victory. He expects a submission finish.

armbar
"give me a luana pinero via armbar"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 19, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Sam Hughes

Lock likes Sam Hughes as a plus money underdog. He believes Pinheiro has a terrible gas tank and will fade if she doesn't finish early. Hughes is gritty and durable, and Lock thinks she can push a pace that exposes Pinheiro's cardio. He also notes that Hughes won a round off Loma Lookboonmee, showing she can compete. Lock took a half unit on Hughes moneyline and also sprinkled round props.

Sam Hughes round 2 +2400, Sam Hughes round 3 +3000, under 2.5 rounds +100
"I already took a half unit shot on her there and I have a couple round props that I've already played for her as well."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 18, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Luana Pinheiro

Paul picks Pinheiro confidently. He dismisses the controversy around her last fight, stating she looked dominant before the illegal kick. He believes her judo is upper echelon and she will easily take Hughes down. He notes that Hughes has been dominated on the ground by Lookboonmee and finished by Tisha Torres. Paul thinks Pinheiro is a real prospect and Hughes is a card filler.

"i got to go with lana panaro and just hope to the betting gods that she's got more than five minutes of cardio or finishes this thing inside of those five minutes"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 15, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Luana Pinheiro

The MMA Guru picks Luana Pinheiro over Sam Hughes. He notes that Sam Hughes has not looked impressive in her UFC fights, facing tough competition in Tisha Torres and Loma Lookboonmee. He highlights Pinheiro's dominant grappling performance against Randa Marcos, where she took her down five times and out-struck her on the feet. He expects Pinheiro to win on the feet and in grappling, likely by unanimous decision.

"i am going to be going with luanna pinero here"
WIN vs Randa Markos
DQ (illegal upkick) R1 4:16 · UFC on ESPN: Reyes vs. Prochazka · May 01, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Luana Pinheiro 0 18 of 40 45% 28 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:29
Randa Markos 0 29 of 53 54% 35 of 61 5 of 6 83% 0 0 0:54
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Luana Pinheiro 0 18 of 40 45% 28 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:29
Randa Markos 0 29 of 53 54% 35 of 61 5 of 6 83% 0 0 0:54
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Luana Pinheiro 18 of 40 45% 12 of 32 6 of 7 0 of 1 12 of 34 5 of 5 1 of 1
Randa Markos 29 of 53 54% 22 of 44 4 of 5 3 of 4 20 of 38 7 of 7 2 of 8
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Luana Pinheiro 18 of 40 45% 12 of 32 6 of 7 0 of 1 12 of 34 5 of 5 1 of 1
Randa Markos 29 of 53 54% 22 of 44 4 of 5 3 of 4 20 of 38 7 of 7 2 of 8
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Apr 27, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Luana Pinheiro

Big Brady picks Luana Pinheiro to win by decision, but expresses hesitation about betting on Contender Series fighters, especially in women's MMA. He likes Pinheiro's aggression, power, and ability to take the fight down, noting Markos's poor takedown defense. However, he acknowledges that Contender Series favorites often fail to cover the price tag. He ultimately picks Pinheiro but says he won't bet on it.

"i will pick panera to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 27, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Luana Pinheiro

Cody thinks Pinheiro is a strong prospect with hands and a judo background, training at ATT with her boyfriend Matheus Nicolau. He notes that Randa Markos has lost three in a row and seems to be on a downswing, possibly thinking about retirement. He believes Pinheiro can exploit Markos in many areas and that -170 is a fair price. However, he has low confidence due to the unpredictability of women's MMA and the veteran vs. debutant dynamic.

"i think minus 170 is fair what about you"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Apr 29, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Luana Pinheiro

Daniel Levi picks Luana Pinheiro to win, citing her finishing ability and jiu-jitsu credentials. He acknowledges the risk of a debut egg but believes Randa Markos is declining mentally and physically. Levi notes that Pinheiro's path to victory is takedowns and top control, as Markos has been dominated on the ground recently.

"i'm gonna go uh with luana here because i just don't think randa up here mentally is where she once was"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Apr 30, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Randa Markos

The host picks Randa Markos as an underdog, citing her experience and durability. He questions Pinheiro's cardio since all her wins are first-round finishes on the regional scene. He expects Markos to take the fight into deeper waters and grind out a decision.

Randa Markos by decision at +235; Over 2.5 rounds at -220; Fight goes to decision at -185
"I am going to go with marcos not with the utmost confidence and not just because she's canadian"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 27, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Luana Pinheiro

Paul agrees with Cody, noting that Markos has seen better days and is on a losing streak. He points out that Markos has never won back-to-back fights in the UFC and is getting older. He thinks Pinheiro is a natural finisher with good grappling and striking, and that she looks strong for 115 pounds. He believes Pinheiro can exploit Markos' telegraphing and suspect wrestling. He agrees that -170 is fair but has low confidence due to the level of competition.

"yeah yeah i agree i think rhonda marcos has seen better days"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 25, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Luana Pinheiro

The MMA Guru picks Luana Pinheiro over Randa Markos, expressing frustration with Markos' poor decision-making and lack of effort. He highlights Pinheiro's power and finishing ability, noting she has first-round finishes in her recent fights. He predicts Pinheiro will win by first-round finish, either by submission or KO.

first round finish
"i'm going to be picking luanna pinero here pretty confidently uh confidently to beat random archos and i'll say she gets a finish in the first round as well"
Expert Picks (6)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Amanda Ribas

Angelo picks Amanda Ribas, expecting her to use her size and strength to grind out a win. He notes she is well-rounded with solid takedown defense and cardio. He warns she must stay controlled and not get sucked into a brawl. He also mentions a prop bet on Luana Pinheiro inside the distance.

Bet on Luana Pinheiro inside the distance (decision no action)
"Amanda's going to be the pick here but honestly the bet is going to be Lanna Panera inside the distance decision no action"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Nov 17, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Amanda Ribas

Big Brady thinks Ribas is better everywhere—striking, wrestling, grappling, cardio—but her chin is very bad, having been dropped and knocked out multiple times. He finds it hard to pick Pinheiro, who he doesn't think is that great, to win by knockout. He predicts Ribas wins by decision but calls it a sketchy fight due to durability concerns.

"I'm going to pick heos to win this fight by decision but a sketchy fight to be honest"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Amanda Ribas

Cody picks Amanda Ribas, citing her takedown offense and volume striking. He notes that Pinheiro is a front-runner who tires, and Ribas can mix in takedowns and striking to win. He acknowledges Ribas took damage in her last fight but believes she has the dog in her to win.

"I'll pick heus as well to win on volume and just that she has that hashtag dog in her"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Nov 17, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Luana Pinheiro

Pinheiro has good striking power and can hurt Ribas on the feet. Ribas's grappling is a threat, but Pinheiro is strong enough to keep it standing. Pinheiro's power punches can find the button and knock Ribas out, likely in the second round. The line is too wide; Pinheiro has value at plus money.

win by knockout
"give me Pinero and I think I'm going to go down a limb here uh and I'm going to take her to win this fight by knockout low confidence but I think she can find the button on heos and put her out probably by the second round"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Amanda Ribas

Paul picks Ribas, noting her takedown accuracy and ability to grind. He points out that Pinheiro gasses and has questionable durability. Paul believes Ribas can take her down, tire her, and open up striking. He mentions Ribas' loss to Barber but thinks Pinheiro lacks that finishing ability.

"I'm going to end up going with heos"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Nov 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Amanda Ribas

The MMA Guru picks Amanda Ribas despite concerns about her chin after being knocked out at flyweight. He criticizes Luana Pinheiro's record as padded, noting her controversial win over Michelle Waterson and a fake knockout against Randa Markos. He believes Ribas has a massive reach advantage and that Pinheiro lacks the power to finish her, predicting a 29-28 decision win.

decision 29-28
"I am going to go Amanda Ribas here... I don't see Pinheiro having the power to finish her at this point so I'm going to go Ribas wins a decision 29-28."