UFC Fight Night · Sep 05, 2026 · Heavyweight · Scheduled
Prev Fight UFC Fight Night
Age 28
Height 6' 5"
Reach 79"
Weight 265 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 34
Height 6' 5"
Reach 79.0"
Weight 205 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Mário Pinto
2.85 SLpM
69.0% Str. Acc.
1.93 SApM
58.0% Str. Def.
2.38 TD Avg
26.0% TD Acc.
100.0% TD Def.
0.9 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Ryan Spann
3.19 SLpM
39.0% Str. Acc.
4.14 SApM
43.0% Str. Def.
1.3 TD Avg
34.0% TD Acc.
52.0% TD Def.
1.8 Sub. Avg
Mário Pinto - Fight History
SCHED vs Ryan Spann
UFC Fight Night · Sep 05, 2026
WIN vs Felipe Franco
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy · Mar 21, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mário Pinto 0 34 of 58 58% 137 of 166 2 of 14 14% 0 0 6:15
Felipe Franco 0 21 of 60 35% 60 of 100 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mário Pinto 0 16 of 28 57% 37 of 49 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:28
Felipe Franco 0 9 of 25 36% 16 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Mário Pinto 0 9 of 20 45% 39 of 53 1 of 5 20% 0 0 2:20
Felipe Franco 0 3 of 19 15% 11 of 27 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Mário Pinto 0 9 of 10 90% 61 of 64 1 of 7 14% 0 0 3:27
Felipe Franco 0 9 of 16 56% 33 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mário Pinto 34 of 58 58% 25 of 48 6 of 7 3 of 3 20 of 42 13 of 15 1 of 1
Felipe Franco 21 of 60 35% 13 of 51 7 of 8 1 of 1 13 of 51 8 of 9 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mário Pinto 16 of 28 57% 12 of 23 2 of 3 2 of 2 12 of 23 4 of 5 0 of 0
Felipe Franco 9 of 25 36% 6 of 21 2 of 3 1 of 1 8 of 24 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Mário Pinto 9 of 20 45% 6 of 17 2 of 2 1 of 1 6 of 16 3 of 4 0 of 0
Felipe Franco 3 of 19 15% 1 of 17 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 18 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Mário Pinto 9 of 10 90% 7 of 8 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 3 6 of 6 1 of 1
Felipe Franco 9 of 16 56% 6 of 13 3 of 3 0 of 0 3 of 9 6 of 7 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Mário Pinto

Angelo picks Mário Pinto as the better fighter, noting Felipe Franco's record is fraudulent and he was submitted by a short-notice gym teacher. However, he warns that Franco's wrestling could be enough to win, comparing him to Jailton Almeida. He advises caution and says he will likely stay away from betting this fight.

staying away from betting; Franco might be Jailton Almeida 2.0
"Mario should be able to knock Felipe's head clean off of his body. I'm still going to probably stay away from this fight or at least not go all in on it because Felipe might be Jolt Nomeda 2.0."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 16, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Mário Pinto

Big Brady is extremely confident in Mário Pinto, calling Felipe Franco a 'fake fighter' and this signing 'despicable.' He notes that Franco's wins are against terrible competition (shopping mall fighters) and that he got exposed on the Contender Series. Pinto, on the other hand, is a good fighter with good striking and wrestling, as shown in his last fight against John Lineker. He predicts a second-round knockout for Pinto.

Mário Pinto by second-round KO
"Give me Mario Pinto to win this fight. I think he finishes Felipe Franco. I'll say second-round knockout for Mario Pinto."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Mário Pinto

Cody agrees, noting Pinto's youth and ability to win standing or on the ground. He expects a dominant performance.

"Mario Pinto, easy win."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Mário Pinto

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Pinto. He notes that Franco is a beast but too raw to navigate this level, and that Pinto's size and reach advantage will be decisive. Connor also mentions that Pinto can be passive and wait for mistakes, but Franco's lack of experience makes that a viable strategy.

Odds comment: Pinto opened -300, now -900; Franco opened +250, now +600. Connor says the odds are too wide but still picks Pinto.
"I just don't think, yeah, I'm agreeing with you. I think Franco is way, there's something there, but he's way too raw to navigate this level of fighting."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Mário Pinto

Daniel is very confident in Pinto, calling him a top heavyweight prospect. He thinks Franco is a sacrificial lamb who will struggle with takedowns and gas out. He expects Pinto to finish him in round one, possibly by knockout.

"I think Mario Pinto is going to launch this dude's head into the fifth row."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 17, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Mário Pinto

Daniel Vreeland picks Mário Pinto to win by first-round knockout. He highlights Pinto's size, striking, and takedown defense, while criticizing Franco's lack of heavyweight experience and suspect chin. He expects a big level difference.

"I'm going Mario Pinto by first round knockout."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert picked Mar 20, 2026 (1 day before fight)

Pinto is better everywhere, but at -957 in a heavyweight fight, the odds are absurd. Franco is low-level but has puncher's chance. Dog or pass.

"I would not be betting Pinto at, you know, 1.10, minus 957, um in a heavyweight fight where it only takes one shot to get knocked out."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lock picked Mar 15, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Mário Pinto

James picks Mário Pinto with high confidence, calling it as close to a lock as possible. He notes that Franco has a weak record and was finished on DWCS, while Pinto is a much better striker. He predicts a first-round finish.

Mário Pinto inside the distance
"Mario Pinto is going to dominate him, man. Pinto is going to finish this fight inside one round, maximum two rounds, probably one round."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 17, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Mário Pinto

The host picks Mário Pinto by knockout. He notes Pinto's well-rounded game and superior striking, while Franco is a light heavyweight moving up on short notice with poor durability. He expects Pinto to keep the fight standing and land a big shot for a KO. He is hesitant on the under 1.5 rounds due to Franco's potential to clinch.

"I'm still picking Pinto to win. I don't think Franco has much of a chance at all. And I'm going to go Pinto by knockout."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Mário Pinto

Paul thinks Pinto is a clear step up in competition for Franco, who has only first-round wins against weak opposition. He expects Pinto to win easily.

"I will not be clicking Franco's name this week. I will tell you that much."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Mário Pinto

The MMA Guru picks Mário Pinto to finish Felipe Franco in the second or third round. He notes Franco has never fought a good opponent and lost on the Contender Series, while Pinto looked well-rounded against Jinata Denz with good grappling. He expects Franco to be dangerous early but fade, allowing Pinto to find a finish later.

finish in the second or third round
"I'm going to say that he finishes Felipe Franco by finish in the second or third round."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Mário Pinto

Zane picks Mário Pinto, noting that Pinto is a solid fighter with fundamental striking and wrestling, while Franco is too raw and has only beaten regional cans. He points out Pinto's size advantage (4 inches taller, 3-inch reach) and that Franco struggled against the only decent opponent he faced. Zane thinks Franco should be in LFA, not the UFC.

Odds comment: Pinto opened -300, now -900; Franco opened +250, now +600. Zane says the odds are too wide but still picks Pinto.
"I can't imagine Franco winning this frankly, but he's a can crusher right now, only one regionally because he was a far better athlete in far better shape than his competition."
WIN vs Jhonata Diniz
KO R2 4:10 · UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · Oct 11, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jhonata Diniz 0 1 of 5 20% 4 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:09
Mário Pinto 0 29 of 33 87% 87 of 102 3 of 4 75% 2 1 7:28
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jhonata Diniz 0 1 of 2 50% 4 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:09
Mário Pinto 0 12 of 14 85% 37 of 44 2 of 2 100% 2 1 3:55
2 Jhonata Diniz 0 0 of 3 0% 0 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Mário Pinto 0 17 of 19 89% 50 of 58 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:33
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jhonata Diniz 1 of 5 20% 0 of 2 0 of 1 1 of 2 1 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Mário Pinto 29 of 33 87% 28 of 31 0 of 0 1 of 2 2 of 3 0 of 0 27 of 30
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jhonata Diniz 1 of 2 50% 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Mário Pinto 12 of 14 85% 11 of 13 0 of 0 1 of 1 2 of 2 0 of 0 10 of 12
2 Jhonata Diniz 0 of 3 0% 0 of 1 0 of 1 0 of 1 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Mário Pinto 17 of 19 89% 17 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 1 0 of 0 17 of 18
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jhonata Diniz vs. Mario Pinto
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Pinto (-125); Diniz (+110)

Round 1
The heavyweights in this match will make the cage rumble, with a combined 512 pounds of bones and squishy stuff between them, not counting referee Joao Claudio Soares. Brazil’s Diniz (9-1, 3-1 UFC) will channel the momentum of home crowd empowering him, and he may need it to hand Pinto (10-0, 1-0 UFC) his first pro loss. The judges may not be needed when it’s all said and done. The big boys clap their equally big gloves together.
It takes 32 seconds for a fighter to commit to a strike, and it is a Diniz leg kick. Pinto tosses one back to answer him, before skirting from side to side. When Diniz opens up with a right hand, Pinto drops to his knees and completes a double. Diniz hits his back, but muscles his way back upright in seconds. Pinto easily mat returns him, and Diniz elbows him repeatedly in the back of the head. Pinto advances to half guard, using his elbow to frame off and keep Diniz from sitting up or scrambling. Pinto climbs into full mount, and Diniz bucks but is stuck flat on his back. Pinto drives down a hefty elbow, and exerts heavy pressure.
When Diniz is about to get out of the mount, Pinto keeps moving and traps Diniz’ arm beneath his legs for a half crucifix. All the while, Pinto’s free arm bashes Diniz with elbow after unanswered elbow. Pinto suddenly transitions to a keylock, where he cranks it all the way up and over as Diniz thinks about giving up but grits it out. Diniz rolls over to try to get out, and Pinto rolls him back thanks to a triangle choke and the threat of an armbar. The man from Portugal repositions himself back to half guard rather than lose position altogether, and he lowers himself down to smother Diniz for the remainder of the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Pinto
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Pinto
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Pinto

Round 2
The fighters high-five to get going in the second stanza, and like before, it takes some time for the heavyweights to engage. After 20 seconds of shadowboxing, they trade low kicks. Pinto changes levels in pursuit of a single, and Diniz shuts it down and puts his back to the wall. As the action slow down, Pinto surges into action with a surprise hip toss to chuck the 257-pound Brazilian on his back. Pinto lines up an elbow from each arm, and he sits up and uses it to either beat on Diniz further or keep him stuck on his back. Pinto slowly, calmly relocates from the guard to half guard to full mount, and when he passes, Diniz times a reversal.
Pinto quickly flips his man back over, and he hacks down with elbows. One slashes Diniz’ forehead wide open, and the blood is a-flowin’. Pinto scoots into full mount, and he sits up and jackhammers the Brazilian with a long flurry of punches.
Pinto grounds and pounds his opponent into a bloody mess, Diniz’ left eye swelling up in a hurry, and he does not appear to have the wherewithal to escape. Pinto takes advantage of his foe who has transformed into a tortoise laying on his back, his belly roasting under the bright lights of the arena, beating his legs to try to turn himself over, but he can’t. Not without Soares’ help, who steps in to call a halt to the heavyweight shellacking.
The momentum for home country fighters has certainly shifted tonight, and three more Brazilians remain—all betting underdogs.

The Official Result
Mario Pinto def. Jhonata Diniz R2 4:10 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Oct 5, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Jhonata Diniz

Angelo flips his pick to Jhonata Diniz after initially leaning towards Mário Pinto. He notes Diniz is a good striker with clean technique and power, and criticizes Pinto's habit of leaning his head back. He acknowledges Diniz's poor ground game but believes his striking advantage will prevail. He is not highly confident.

"I'm going Genaro Valdez. I did it. I talked myself into... I'm picking Genaro Valdez."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jhonata Diniz

Big Brady picks Jhonata Diniz, citing better volume, power, and striking. He criticizes Mario Pinto for being low volume and boring, and notes Pinto struggled against Austin Lane, getting outlanded and knocked down. Brady expects Diniz to land bigger shots and more volume, winning a decision.

"Denise, better volume, better power, just a better striker. I think Denise should win this fight. I'll say decision for Denat the Denise."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Oct 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jhonata Diniz

Cody picks Diniz but is hesitant, calling it a 'middling ass heavyweight fight.' He notes Diniz's slow start but improving takedown defense and cardio, while Pinto is green and unrefined. He thinks Diniz's leg kicks and experience will edge him a decision.

"He's slower, he's plotting, he'll get punched in the face a few times, no doubt about it. If he can put in a performance like he did against Alvin Hines, work the legs, keep a high output, I think he'll …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Oct 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Mário Pinto

Lucrative James picks Mário Pinto, citing his youth (27 vs 34), undefeated record, and potential wrestling advantage. He notes that Diniz is a pure striker with no wrestling, while Pinto has more upside. He sees it as a close fight but leans Pinto. He likes the over 1.5 rounds and refers to his 'hammer of the week' video for props.

over 1.5 rounds
"I'm going to take Mario Pinto in this fight. I don't know who I took in the last fight. I think I called it like a pick them, but yeah, I feel like Mario Pinto's just got more upside than …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Oct 5, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Jhonata Diniz

James picks Diniz as a slight underdog, expecting a striking contest where Diniz's experience and power give him an edge. He acknowledges Pinto's better boxing and potential grappling advantage but doubts Pinto will use takedowns. He predicts a decision win for Diniz but calls it a weak take and a 50/50 fight.

"I'm going to have to go with the guy who I feel like is going to be more effective in the striking, and that is Yonardo Denise."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Mário Pinto

Manpreet picks Pinto as an underdog, surprised at the plus money. He believes Pinto's athleticism, power, and potential grappling advantage (training with Stuart Austin) will overcome Diniz's striking. He notes Diniz's poor takedown defense and expects Pinto to mix in takedowns and secure a TKO finish. He considers the first round against Austen Lane a blip.

Pinto by TKO
"I'm kind of surprised that Pinto finds himself at plus 105 here. ... I love Pinto to pull off the upset and get the win like I said, by TKO."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jhonata Diniz

Paul picks Diniz, citing his superior kickboxing experience and leg kicks. He questions Pinto's power and durability, noting he was knocked down by Austin Lane. He believes Diniz's cardio and technique will carry him to a win, possibly by knockout.

knockout
"Denise Denise by knockout. Uval Morer. Someone's head's getting knocked off. Probably Pintos."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 7, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Jhonata Diniz

The MMA Guru picks Jhonata Diniz over Mário Pinto as an underdog. He believes Diniz has better kickboxing fundamentals, a tucked chin, and durability. He notes Pinto gets wild and Diniz will stick his jab. He predicts a TKO win in the first two rounds.

TKO in round 1 or 2
"I'm going to go with Jinata Denz getting this one done by TKO. I think it's an upset."
WIN vs Austen Lane
KO R2 0:39 · UFC Fight Night 253 · Mar 01, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Austen Lane 1 32 of 63 50% 36 of 75 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:53
Mário Pinto 1 13 of 23 56% 16 of 26 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:18
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Austen Lane 1 20 of 38 52% 23 of 46 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:53
Mário Pinto 0 7 of 11 63% 10 of 14 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:17
2 Austen Lane 0 12 of 25 48% 13 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Mário Pinto 1 6 of 12 50% 6 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Austen Lane 32 of 63 50% 17 of 42 13 of 17 2 of 4 31 of 58 1 of 5 0 of 0
Mário Pinto 13 of 23 56% 8 of 18 2 of 2 3 of 3 12 of 20 1 of 2 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Austen Lane 20 of 38 52% 11 of 23 7 of 11 2 of 4 20 of 35 0 of 3 0 of 0
Mário Pinto 7 of 11 63% 2 of 6 2 of 2 3 of 3 6 of 9 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Austen Lane 12 of 25 48% 6 of 19 6 of 6 0 of 0 11 of 23 1 of 2 0 of 0
Mário Pinto 6 of 12 50% 6 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0 6 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert picked Feb 23, 2025 (6 days before fight)

Angelo does not make a clear pick for this fight. He notes that Mário Pinto has good takedown defense and power, but Austen Lane is athletic and experienced. He is hesitant due to Pinto's -330 odds as a UFC debutant and decides to avoid betting on this fight, calling it a 'conservative anchor' and suggesting it's the type of fight bet Sam might take.

Avoid betting; fight likely to be avoided
"I'm probably going to avoid this fight like once you get minus 330 on a UFC debut it's it's just there's a lot of questions"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 24, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Mário Pinto

Big Brady picks Mário Pinto, impressed by his well-rounded skills. He notes Austen Lane's only path is wrestling, but Pinto can stuff takedowns and has a striking advantage. He predicts Pinto will knock out Lane within the first two rounds.

Pinto by KO round 2
"I'm going to go Mario Pinto to win this fight and I think he knocks out lane within the first two rounds we'll call it a second round knockout"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 26, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Mário Pinto

The host is high on Mario Pinto in his UFC debut, believing his takedown defense will shut down Lane's wrestling and that he is the superior striker. He expects Pinto to find a knockout and get his hand raised.

knockout
"I do love me some Mario Pinto here who is going to be making his UFC debut I think his takedown defense will be good enough to shut down that side of Lane's game and I think he is the …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 28, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Mário Pinto

The Guru picks Mário Pinto over Austen Lane. He notes Pinto's technical striking and finishing ability on the contender series, despite looking flabby. He thinks Lane is dangerous but has been knocked out before. He predicts a TKO finish for Pinto in his debut.

"I'm going with Mario Pinter... probably by finish I'm going to say TKO for Mario Pinto in his debut."
Ryan Spann - Fight History
SCHED vs Mário Pinto
UFC Fight Night · Sep 05, 2026
KO R2 2:10 · UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · Apr 25, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marcus Buchecha 0 8 of 13 61% 8 of 13 1 of 7 14% 1 0 1:09
Ryan Spann 1 15 of 27 55% 20 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:56
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marcus Buchecha 0 4 of 6 66% 4 of 6 1 of 6 16% 1 0 1:05
Ryan Spann 0 10 of 18 55% 15 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:29
2 Marcus Buchecha 0 4 of 7 57% 4 of 7 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:04
Ryan Spann 1 5 of 9 55% 5 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:27
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marcus Buchecha 8 of 13 61% 4 of 8 1 of 1 3 of 4 7 of 12 0 of 0 1 of 1
Ryan Spann 15 of 27 55% 11 of 22 3 of 4 1 of 1 8 of 17 0 of 0 7 of 10
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marcus Buchecha 4 of 6 66% 1 of 3 1 of 1 2 of 2 3 of 5 0 of 0 1 of 1
Ryan Spann 10 of 18 55% 7 of 14 3 of 4 0 of 0 3 of 8 0 of 0 7 of 10
2 Marcus Buchecha 4 of 7 57% 3 of 5 0 of 0 1 of 2 4 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ryan Spann 5 of 9 55% 4 of 8 0 of 0 1 of 1 5 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Marcus Almeida vs. Ryan Spann
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Almeida (-150); Spann (+125)

Round 1
From one all-time great grappler in Vieira to another in “Buchecha” Almeida (5-2-1, 0-1-1 UFC) we go. The big man from Brazil is still seeking his first UFC victory, and he will be given the opportunity to do so at the expense of massive ex-light heavyweight Spann (23-11, 9-6 UFC). The Texan once weighed 205 pounds, and he bulked up to a sleek, svelte 264 pounds for this one, or about 11 pounds higher than the established heavyweight he is battling now. To maintain control of the big fellas, referee Herb Dean may need maximum effort. Gloves are touched before they are traded.
Almeida slams a low kick home, which lands with a resounding thud. Spann bounces back and forth to swing a one-two, and Almeida pushes off his face as a finger scrapes Spann’s eye. Spann signals to Dean that he was fouled, and Dean tells him to fight on. From across the cage, Almeida sprints at Spann to take the fight down, and Spann counters with a brief guillotine choke before letting it go to scramble. With Almeida not quite taking the fight down, Spann hovers over him bludgeoning him with his fists. Almeida fights out of the worst of it and turns to his knees to power back to his feet, and he immediately searches for a level change. Almeida wrenches his foe to the floor, and Spann’s attempted guillotine falls apart seconds after he tries for it. Almeida threatens with an arm-triangle choke, and Spann pulls out of it and rips himself back up to his feet. Spann runs towards the cage to escape, not knowing if Almeida is hot on his heels, and he bounces off of it and takes a deep breath. Spann re-engages, and he pushes on the back of Almeida’s neck when Almeida pursues a takedown.
Spann drills his foe with an uppercut and controls Almeida to push him to his back for a moment, and when Almeida turns to his knees, Spann lets him flip over so he can knee him in the ribs. Spann backs away, and Almeida slowly lumbers his way back to his feet. Spann offers up a front kick on the jaw, and “Buchecha” drills his front leg with a kick that makes Spann take a very funny step. Almeida goes for a one-two to set up a double, and when Spann shoves him to the mat, the American turns to escape a sudden heel hook that came out of nowhere. Almeida scrambles to hunt for a takedown, and Spann uses a guillotine to threaten just long enough to bulldoze Almeida over. With Almeida on his knees, Spann connects with a strong knee to the side. Almeida pushes him off, and Spann stands up and just waits until the oddball round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Spann
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Spann
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Spann

Round 2
A glove touch kicks off the round, both men breathing a big hard after a frenetic five-round stretch. Almeida pushes out with his fingers outstretched, and Spann complains about a poke as Dean calls time and issues a very hard warning to “Buchecha.” They resume shortly thereafter, with Spann standing in the pocket ready to throw hands. Before he can, Almeida once more leads with his fingers out, and Dean shows him how to close his fist. Almeida swings after the break, aiming for a takedown after it. Spann is wise to it and uses his guillotine to not threaten the actual submission but control the posture well enough to force Almeida to think about another angle. Almeida turns his way out of it and works his way back to his feet, as Spann does not want to chill out in the guard. On his feet again, Almeida prods out a solid jab.
Spann works around the jab, swinging all his might behind a left hook and a follow-up straight right hand that smash about as cleanly on the jaw as one can. Almeida crumples to this back, eyes staring off into space and not remotely ready to defend anything else as he is all done.
Dean rushes between them to make sure Spann is not about to batter his doomed opponent further. Spann knows his work here is done and proceeds to dance around the cage, as he has now become the first fighter in MMA to finish “Buchecha.”

The Official Result
Ryan Spann def. Marcus Almeida R2 2:10 via KO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 19, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

Angelo picks Ryan Spann confidently, calling him the much better striker with better cage awareness and killer instinct. He notes that Marcus Buchecha needs to get the fight to the ground or pray that Spann fades, but Spann has power and takedown defense that should hold up. He dismisses Buchecha's UFC performances as unconvincing.

"Ryan Span is going to be the pick because of the power and hopefully the takedown defense holds up."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 21, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Marcus Buchecha

Big Brady picks Marcus Buchecha over Ryan Spann. He questions Spann's fight IQ and training habits, noting Spann is a light heavyweight moving up. He believes Buchecha's size and grappling will be too much, predicting a first-round submission as long as Buchecha fights smart.

Buchecha wins by first round submission
"Give me Buchecha by first round submission."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 23, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Marcus Buchecha

Connor also picks Buchecha, describing Spann as a fighter who visibly does not enjoy fighting and panics when hurt. He notes that Spann's anxiety leads him to wrestle frantically, which will get him submitted by Buchecha. He thinks Buchecha's jiu-jitsu is too much for Spann, and that Spann's only chance is an early knockout, which is unlikely.

"I got to assume that's going to be enough."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Hesitant picked Apr 25, 2026 (fight day)
Ryan Spann

The host is tempted to bet Spann as a slight underdog because Buchecha has terrible cardio and poor striking defense, while Spann has knockout power and better cardio. However, Spann has bad fight IQ, making it risky. He notes Buchecha is awful and he has made money betting against him before. He says if Spann wins, it will likely be inside the distance, so the moneyline is better than the fight spread.

If Spann wins, likely inside distance; over/under too risky; prefers moneyline over fight spread
"Spann's a very tempting bet as a slight underdog, and I may bet him this weekend, but obviously whenever you bet Ryan Spann, you are taking a big risk."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Apr 19, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Marcus Buchecha

James picks Buchecha, citing Spann's poor cardio and tendency to fade after round one. He believes Buchecha's durability, submission defense, and will to win will allow him to survive early danger and take over in later rounds.

"I'm picking Marcus Betcha for that reason. ... I am confident on Betcha."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Apr 21, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Marcus Buchecha

Buchecha is a BJJ legend but has struggled to get takedowns and has poor striking. Spann has knockout power and a sneaky guillotine, but he has mental lapses and often gets finished early. Buchecha should be able to get Spann to the ground and submit him early, but the -145 price is not great value.

fight finishes under 7.5 minutes
"I'm expecting an early finish here. No matter who ends up getting their hand raised, I think it's going to be Buches who's going to get Span to the ground. And I think from there he'll be able to get …"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 23, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Marcus Buchecha

Zane picks Buchecha, noting that Spann is prone to panic and will likely try to wrestle early, which plays into Buchecha's strength. He points out that Spann hasn't won outside the first round since 2020 and is mentally fragile. Buchecha, despite being a raw MMA fighter, has a huge advantage on the ground. Zane expects an early submission.

"I think I have to pick Butchecha."
Submission R1 2:47 · UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · Jul 19, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ryan Spann 0 8 of 19 42% 8 of 19 1 of 1 100% 2 0 2:14
Łukasz Brzeski 0 5 of 8 62% 23 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ryan Spann 0 8 of 19 42% 8 of 19 1 of 1 100% 2 0 2:14
Łukasz Brzeski 0 5 of 8 62% 23 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ryan Spann 8 of 19 42% 8 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 10 0 of 0 6 of 9
Łukasz Brzeski 5 of 8 62% 1 of 4 0 of 0 4 of 4 5 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ryan Spann 8 of 19 42% 8 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 10 0 of 0 6 of 9
Łukasz Brzeski 5 of 8 62% 1 of 4 0 of 0 4 of 4 5 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 13, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

Angelo picks Ryan Spann to win, noting his power, submissions, and wrestling. He compares Brzeski to Austin Lane as a finishable opponent. However, he expresses concern about Spann's heavyweight debut where he looked out of shape and not serious, making the -225 price a bit tricky.

"Ryan Span should win this fight. Ryan Span is going to be the pick."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jul 15, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

Big Brady picks Ryan Spann but expresses concern about Spann's inconsistency and motivation. He notes Spann looked terrible at heavyweight and hasn't posted training content. However, he believes Brzeski is not UFC caliber and Spann should win by first-round knockout if he shows up.

Spann by first round knockout
"I have to take Ryan Span. There's no way I'm ever picking Lucas Presky to win a UFC fight."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jul 18, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Ryan Spann

Connor picks Spann, noting that Brzeski lacks durability and has been finished by lesser punchers. He believes Spann's confidence issues won't be a factor against a non-threatening opponent like Brzeski, who doesn't push a high pace or hit hard.

Odds: Spann opened -286, currently -210; Brzeski opened +246, currently +180.
"I'm going to go ahead and take span here."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Jul 16, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

The host thinks Spann will get his first heavyweight win but expects Brzeski to make it more difficult than the odds indicate. He predicts Spann finds the finish inside the distance, but the hesitation suggests some doubt about the ease of victory.

finish inside the distance
"I think Span ends up finding the finish inside the distance."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Łukasz Brzeski

The MMA Guru picks Łukasz Brzeski over Ryan Spann, citing Spann's low fight IQ and poor performance against Anthony Smith. He notes that Brzeski has experience in the cage and went to a decision with Volkan Oezdemir, which is respectable. The Guru also mentions that Brzeski is likely taller than Spann despite the listed height difference. He cannot trust Spann after his last performance and believes Brzeski will win.

"I'm going to go with Berserki um or however you pronounce his name."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jul 18, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Ryan Spann

Zane agrees with Connor, picking Spann. He notes that Brzeski is a low-level opponent who won't test Spann's confidence, and Spann should win comfortably.

Same odds commentary as Connor.
"I am too."
KO R2 4:48 · UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2 · Mar 15, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Waldo Cortes Acosta 1 66 of 111 59% 77 of 123 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:57
Ryan Spann 0 23 of 86 26% 24 of 87 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Waldo Cortes Acosta 0 27 of 49 55% 31 of 53 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:49
Ryan Spann 0 12 of 33 36% 13 of 34 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:05
2 Waldo Cortes Acosta 1 39 of 62 62% 46 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Ryan Spann 0 11 of 53 20% 11 of 53 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Waldo Cortes Acosta 66 of 111 59% 56 of 97 4 of 6 6 of 8 59 of 100 1 of 2 6 of 9
Ryan Spann 23 of 86 26% 11 of 70 5 of 9 7 of 7 22 of 85 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Waldo Cortes Acosta 27 of 49 55% 21 of 40 1 of 3 5 of 6 25 of 45 1 of 2 1 of 2
Ryan Spann 12 of 33 36% 5 of 23 2 of 5 5 of 5 11 of 32 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Waldo Cortes Acosta 39 of 62 62% 35 of 57 3 of 3 1 of 2 34 of 55 0 of 0 5 of 7
Ryan Spann 11 of 53 20% 6 of 47 3 of 4 2 of 2 11 of 53 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs. Ryan Spann
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Cortes-Acosta (-166), Spann (+140)

Round 1
The preliminaries conclude with a heavyweight match that could provide a new contender when the dust settles. Cortes-Acosta (12-1, 5-1 UFC) has won five of six as a full-framed heavyweight, and his opponent Spann (22-10, 8-5 UFC) is introducing himself to the weight class by no longer cutting weight. The ex-205er weighed 249 pounds, so he will be adequately sized as he also stands an inch taller. Referee Mark Smith will be minding his P’s and Q’s as the big men throw down, and he stands by as they clap hands first. Spann strikes first with a heavy leg kick, and Smith tells the heavyweights to watch their extended fingers. Cortes-Acosta responds with his own low kick, but Spann’s has much more behind it. Cortes-Acosta whiffs on a left hook, and a big overhand right of his bangs into Spann’s raised guard. Spann kicks high and is blocked, and he kicks low but is not. Cortes-Acosta wades in with winging punches, and Spann is well out of harm’s way in time. Spann hammers the front leg with a kick, and he counters one coming his way with a thudding overhand right that stuns the man from Dominican Republic. Cortes-Acosta leans forward and the two clash heads, and Smith calls time to make sure no damage resulted from it. He resumes them, and the fighters trade punches. Cortes-Acosta catches Spann on the temple with a blistering right hand, and he uses his weight to drag Spann to the fence. Spann breaks free and plunks Cortes-Acosta with an overhand right, but Cortes-Acosta’s uppercut shakes him up again. Both men swing their fists from down beneath their hips, getting full torque into it. They both lash out with low kicks, and Cortes-Acosta checks it and draws a funny reaction from his opponent. Spann comes up short with a front kick, and Cortes-Acosta chews up his front leg with another kick. Spann goes to the body with his front kick, and Cortes-Acosta winds up with bad intentions looping his haymakers at the former light heavyweight. They clinch up, and Cortes-Acosta drives punches into Spann until Spann breaks away and launches some of his own. Spann gets off a low kick and slips out of the way from “Salsa Boy,” and Cortes-Acosta measures his man with a jab and a right hand that hurts Spann again. Cortes-Acosta’s forward momentum results in a tie-up, using his higher weight to toss Spann to his back. Spann tries to upkick him in the legs a few times until the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta

Round 2
The fighters lead off with a brief glove touch, and Spann is quick to fight behind his jab. Cortes-Acosta snaps his head back with a straight right hand, and he is met with a front kick to the belly. Cortes-Acosta jabs his man in the belly, but the fist goes low and bangs into Spann’s cup. Smith calls time, and Spann drops to his knees and takes a little under a minute to recover. They resume, and Cortes-Acosta flashes out his jab as Spann does the same. Cortes-Acosta scores a left and a right, and Spann indicates he was poked in the eye. Smith again pauses the action and checks the replay, and they get back to it after a few seconds. Spann jams the body with a kick, and he wings a huge right hand that Cortes-Acosta rolls with. Spann whiffs on another, and a third is met with a sharp jab from his foe. Spann is irritated about getting poked in the eye, and Smith issues a loud warning to Cortes-Acosta. Spann overthrows his punches, and the Dominican is beating him to the punch and clips the Fortis MMA fighter with his overhand right. Cortes-Acosta kicks the inner thigh, and the strike pounds square into his cup. Smith sighs heavily and calls time one more time. Spann crouches down and is not a happy camper after receiving these fouls, and Smith issues a final warning to Cortes-Acosta to keep things clean. The Texan takes more time than before to get his wind back, with Cortes-Acosta getting away with multiple fouls without a point deduction. The fighters get back to business after another 90-second break, and Spann returns to fighting behind his jab. Spann rifles off a calf kick, and Cortes-Acosta lands a powerful right hand across the forward bow. “Superman” dodges a check left hook but is unable to get away from the jab, and Cortes-Acosta loads up on his overhand right and sways the right direction to avoid one coming his direction. Cortes-Acosta prods with a jab until Spann bears down on him, and he uses the jab again to keep Spann honest. A one-two from Spann does not find its target, and he dances away from a similar pair of blows. Cortes-Acosta’s head movement and footwork keeps him safe, and he clubs Spann in the side of the dome. Spann spins with a back kick, and he shoots for a double that is met with 262 pounds of meat and several punches on the side of the head. Spann explodes back to his feet, and Cortes-Acosta is on him clubbing him with fists.
Spann swings back, still in trouble, and Cortes-Acosta sticks him with a jab and follows with a short left hook that levels Spann. When “Superman” hits the ground, Smith is already racing in towards the fighters, only to allow a few more punctuating hammerfists and punches to briefly shut Spann’s lights out.
Smith gets between them and allows Cortes-Acosta to reposition his foe’s legs who are tangled up with his, and Cortes-Acosta walks off to celebrate his handiwork. The ranked heavyweight calls for fights against either Tai Tuivasa or Derrick Lewis, and both are within his reach given his success in the division thus far.

The Official Result
Waldo Cortes-Acosta def. Ryan Spann R2 4:48 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

Angelo picks Waldo Cortes Acosta over Ryan Spann. He believes Waldo is faster, has better movement, and cardio, while Spann's last win was his first in three years against an older opponent. He notes that public money might come in on Spann, making Waldo even better value.

"Waldo's the pick and that's not just because we were both in the movie the burden of Nine Lives."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 10, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

Big Brady picks Waldo Cortes Acosta, reasoning that Ryan Spann is a round-one-or-bust fighter who fades after the first five minutes. He notes Spann's last win outside the first round was a split decision in 2020. Brady believes Cortes Acosta has good durability and cardio, and if he survives the first round, he will take over in the later rounds with higher output. He predicts a decision win for Cortes Acosta.

Cortes Acosta by decision
"give me Waldo Cortez aosta by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2025 (fight day)

Cody picks Julius Walker, noting that the UFC is giving him a bounce-back fight after a competitive debut against Alonzo Menifield. He believes Raphael Cerqueira is a low-level opponent with poor durability and that Walker will win easily. He acknowledges the high price but sees it as a safe play.

"I feel like Julius really puts it on him. And the UFC understands fully. We've seen guys like Martin Budai six and one in the UFC cut. We've seen guys, you know, talented prospects, maybe like a TJ Laramie, he …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert picked Jan 31, 2024 (409 days before fight)

Daniel does not make a clear pick for this fight. He discusses the matchup briefly but does not state a preference or bet.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

The host believes Cortes Acosta's takedown defense will keep the fight standing, allowing him to run away with the matchup in deep water and win on the scorecards.

"I believe Cortez a Costa's ability to keep span at Bay utilizing some decent enough takedown defense keeping this fight in the stand up realm and I think that will see Cortez aosta start to run away with this matchup …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2025 (fight day)

Paul also picks Walker, citing his athleticism and the favorable matchup. He notes that Cerqueira has a padded record and has been knocked out quickly. He believes Walker will roll and sees value in the win, despite the high price.

"Walker for me. You"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Ryan Spann

The MMA Guru picks Ryan Spann, believing in light heavyweights succeeding at heavyweight. He notes Spann has touch-of-death power and dangerous grappling, though he has bad IQ moments. He criticizes Waldo Cortes Acosta as a 'fat heavyweight' who nearly got fraud-checked by Jared Vanderaa and has poor takedown entries. He thinks Spann's experience against better competition gives him the edge, and he expects a knockout.

"I'm gonna go Ryan span I'm GNA go with Ryan span over wildo Cortez a Costa I believe in light heavyweights succeeding at heavyweight"
Submission (guillotine choke) R1 1:35 · UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · Oct 05, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ryan Spann 0 9 of 20 45% 9 of 20 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:03
Ovince Saint Preux 0 7 of 10 70% 7 of 10 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ryan Spann 0 9 of 20 45% 9 of 20 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:03
Ovince Saint Preux 0 7 of 10 70% 7 of 10 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ryan Spann 9 of 20 45% 5 of 13 2 of 5 2 of 2 9 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ovince Saint Preux 7 of 10 70% 2 of 3 0 of 2 5 of 5 7 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ryan Spann 9 of 20 45% 5 of 13 2 of 5 2 of 2 9 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ovince Saint Preux 7 of 10 70% 2 of 3 0 of 2 5 of 5 7 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Sep 29, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

Angelo picks Ryan Spann, citing his youth, danger, and finishing ability. He notes Ovince Saint Preux is older and hesitant. However, he is not betting on this fight due to the short notice and elevation, which could lead to a staring contest. He thinks the under 1.5 rounds line is tempting but unreliable.

Not betting due to uncertainty
"I'm going to pick Ryan span here... I'm not betting on this fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

Big Brady picks Ryan Spann to win by first-round knockout, acknowledging that Spann is dangerous early but fades if the fight goes past the first round. He notes that OSP is 41 and has been knocked out by lesser fighters like Tanner Boser and Philipe Lins, so Spann's power should be enough. He understands why people are betting OSP but trusts Spann's first-round finishing ability.

first round knockout
"I'm going take a Ryan span here to win this fight by first round knockout it's hard to trust him I see why people are betting OSP but I I mean I think Ryan span should I mean Ryan span …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ovince Saint Preux

Cody picks OSP, citing Spann's cardio issues and tendency to quit. He thinks OSP's durability and experience at altitude will allow him to outlast Spann. He expects a late finish or decision.

"OSP will be the pick"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Ryan Spann

Connor picks Spann, arguing that OSP's recent wins have come against smaller or slower opponents, while Spann is neither. Spann is fast and huge, and OSP's age and decline make him a poor bet. He notes that Spann's losses are bad, but he has the physical tools to beat OSP.

"I convinced you to pick Ryan's bond. Because OSP is... the fights that he's won are either against guys much smaller than him in the past or much slower than him."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Ovince Saint Preux

Daniel Vreeland leans toward Ovince Saint Preux, citing his unorthodox style and veteran tactics. He notes that Ryan Spann is a talented flake with a weak chin and poor decision-making. Vreeland points out that OSP has beaten other Forest MMA fighters and had a career-high output in his last fight. He expects OSP to win if he survives the early rounds.

"I think ovince uh is going to complete the trifecta of the and be the forest MMA killer"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Ovince Saint Preux

The host believes Ovince Saint Preux will avoid the early finishing power of Ryan Spann and then chip away at him in the second and third rounds, winning on the scorecards. He notes that the moneyline is very juicy at the current price, indicating value.

moneyline is very juicy at the current price
"I do believe same PR will do a good enough job in terms of avoiding the early finishing power of Ryan span and then chipping away at him in the second and third rounds where he should be able to …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ovince Saint Preux

Paul picks OSP but with less confidence than before. He notes the altitude and Spann's cardio problems. He thinks OSP can find a finish or win a decision if he conserves energy.

"OSP will be the pick but I like it less"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

The MMA Guru picks Ryan Spann to KO Ovince Saint Preux, despite acknowledging Spann's poor decision-making. He believes Spann's explosive power and size will be too much for the 41-year-old OSP, who he considers finished. He expects Spann to land a brutal knockout on the early prelims, as OSP is unlikely to get takedowns and the fight will stay standing.

"I'm going to go with Ryan span you guys I've got a good feeling that he's going to KO oin St PR he's a big Power Striker he's very explosive"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Ryan Spann

Zane agrees with Connor, noting that OSP's recent wins are unimpressive and Spann has the size and speed advantage. He acknowledges Spann's inconsistency but believes he will win this matchup.

"Fine. I'll, I'll, you're gaslighting me right now. I'm quite sure I picked OSP. You're just lying to me, but you can pick him."
LOSS vs Bogdan Guskov
TKO (punches) R2 3:16 · UFC on ESPN: Nicolau vs. Perez · Apr 27, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Bogdan Guskov 0 15 of 38 39% 20 of 44 1 of 3 33% 1 0 3:29
Ryan Spann 1 31 of 48 64% 49 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:20
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Bogdan Guskov 0 6 of 10 60% 11 of 16 1 of 2 50% 1 0 3:29
Ryan Spann 0 3 of 8 37% 21 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Bogdan Guskov 0 9 of 28 32% 9 of 28 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Ryan Spann 1 28 of 40 70% 28 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:20
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Bogdan Guskov 15 of 38 39% 10 of 30 3 of 6 2 of 2 11 of 34 2 of 2 2 of 2
Ryan Spann 31 of 48 64% 30 of 47 0 of 0 1 of 1 17 of 31 0 of 0 14 of 17
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Bogdan Guskov 6 of 10 60% 3 of 6 2 of 3 1 of 1 2 of 6 2 of 2 2 of 2
Ryan Spann 3 of 8 37% 2 of 7 0 of 0 1 of 1 3 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Bogdan Guskov 9 of 28 32% 7 of 24 1 of 3 1 of 1 9 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ryan Spann 28 of 40 70% 28 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0 14 of 23 0 of 0 14 of 17
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Ryan Spann vs. Bogdan Guskov

Round 1
Herb Dean will oversee the co-main event. Both men show a lot of respect. Guskov throws an overhand right. Spann gets in on a takedown and then lands a knee to the groin. The fight is paused. They're put back in position oddly. Spann lands another low blow with a knee. Dean doesn't take a point despite two fouls in a row. They touch gloves as the fight continues. Spann lands an overhand right. Spann is able to get a takedown and lands in guard. Guskov gives up side control. Spann is able to get into mount and is looking to take the back. Guskov almost escapes, but Spann is able to get his hooks in and takes the back. Spann is looking for a rear-naked choke with a minute left. Guskov is flattened out, so Spann abandons the attempt and starts punching before the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Spann
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Spann
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Spann

Round 2
It is a slow start to the second round as both men are hesitant about the other's power. Both men miss with hooks. Guskov hurts Spann with a right hand and then a left hook. Spann dives for a takedown to no avail. Spann fires back with a right hand of his own. Guskov eats a giant overhand right. Spann lands another looping punch. Guskov comes forward with straight punches and is beating Spann to the punch.
A huge uppercut hurts Spann. A right hand floors Spann, who then eats a series of vicious right hands on the ground. Herb Dean finally steps in, and this is over!

The Official Result
Bogdan Guskov def. Ryan Spann TKO (Punches); R2, 3:16.
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 21, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

Angelo picks Ryan Spann due to experience, size, and durability. He thinks Bogdan Guskov may have early success but will fade, while Spann will survive and take over. He notes Spann is dangerous everywhere (striking, submissions, wrestling) and has cardio for 15 minutes. He believes Spann likely wins by decision or late stoppage, but is not confident enough to bet on him.

"Ryan span is going to be the pick because of experience I don't know if I trust him enough to bet on him"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Bogdan Guskov

Cody leans toward Guskov as a doger pass, citing Spann's inconsistencies and poor durability. He thinks Guskov's power gives him a puncher's chance, especially if Spann's weight cut is rough. However, he admits Guskov is not very good and the pick is high variance.

by KO (estimated +200)
"it's a doger pass type of spot for me Goose can or Goose can that may actually be he could be I don't think this guy's very good whatsoever but you're laying a A plus 170 him by knockout would …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Apr 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

Daniel acknowledges Spann's talent and athleticism but calls him a 'talented flake' with mental issues and a history of getting knocked out the same way. He thinks Spann should win based on skills but can't lay -190 on him. He leans Spann but passes on betting.

"I lean Ryan span but minus 190 minus 200 is not a lean price so I think it's a dogger pass situation but pure pick I'm going go Ryan span here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 26, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Ryan Spann

Spann has the athleticism, power, and speed advantage. He should be able to hurt Guskov early and find a finish, likely in the first round. Guskov was knocked out in his UFC debut and may be vulnerable to Spann's power. I expect Spann to win by first-round knockout.

"I do think that we'll see Ryan span dictate the pace really put the pressure on gusov and then eventually find that early finish here give me span and span by first round knock"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

Paul picks Spann despite his inconsistencies, arguing Spann has faced much better competition and is more skilled overall. He believes Spann's takedowns and grappling will be the difference, and that Guskov's padded record and lack of durability will be exposed.

"I got to go with span again he's just the better guy"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 23, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

The MMA Guru picks Ryan Spann, noting that Bogdan Guskov has never fought someone taller than him and keeps his hands down. He criticizes Guskov's style of throwing shovel hooks from the waist, which may not work against a longer opponent. He believes Spann's reach and low kicks will be effective, and mentions Spann's guillotine threat. He predicts Spann will win, possibly by low kicks.

"I'm going with Ryan span over Bogdan gusov"
LOSS vs Anthony Smith
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. The Korean Zombie · Aug 26, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Anthony Smith 0 91 of 147 61% 91 of 147 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:56
Ryan Spann 0 59 of 187 31% 62 of 191 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:19
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Anthony Smith 0 24 of 42 57% 24 of 42 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:45
Ryan Spann 0 10 of 41 24% 10 of 41 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Anthony Smith 0 22 of 36 61% 22 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
Ryan Spann 0 22 of 60 36% 25 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:19
3 Anthony Smith 0 45 of 69 65% 45 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Ryan Spann 0 27 of 86 31% 27 of 86 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Anthony Smith 91 of 147 61% 44 of 92 12 of 15 35 of 40 90 of 146 1 of 1 0 of 0
Ryan Spann 59 of 187 31% 39 of 158 14 of 23 6 of 6 50 of 174 0 of 0 9 of 13
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Anthony Smith 24 of 42 57% 9 of 25 1 of 1 14 of 16 23 of 41 1 of 1 0 of 0
Ryan Spann 10 of 41 24% 5 of 32 4 of 8 1 of 1 10 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Anthony Smith 22 of 36 61% 10 of 22 4 of 4 8 of 10 22 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ryan Spann 22 of 60 36% 16 of 52 5 of 7 1 of 1 13 of 47 0 of 0 9 of 13
3 Anthony Smith 45 of 69 65% 25 of 45 7 of 10 13 of 14 45 of 69 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ryan Spann 27 of 86 31% 18 of 74 5 of 8 4 of 4 27 of 86 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 20, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

Angelo believes Smith's best days are behind him, citing his recent loss to Johnny Walker where he was dropped and then headhunted. He thinks Spann will be too big, fast, and powerful for Smith. He has a full unit bet on Spann at -147, noting that the bet is more about Smith's decline than Spann's rise.

Full unit bet on Ryan Spann at -147
"I think that this is gonna be Ryan span all day I have a full unit on him"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 21, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

Big Brady questions why this rematch is happening, noting Anthony Smith dominated the first fight. However, he believes Smith looks uninterested and has taken too much damage, citing his recent performances against Johnny Walker and Magomed Ankalaev. He thinks Spann is dangerous everywhere and will knock out Smith in the first round, as Smith's durability is declining.

first round knockout
"give me Ryan span to knock out Anthony Smith in the first round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 24, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Anthony Smith

Cody picks Smith because he already beat Spann via submission and is getting plus money. He notes that Spann is a one-round fighter who fades under adversity, while Smith has better grappling and durability. Cody believes Smith can survive the early onslaught and take over later in the fight.

Smith by submission; under 1.5 rounds
"Smith beat him clean with the Striking last time and then finished the deal with the submission"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Aug 24, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

Daniel picks Ryan Spann, reasoning that Spann is an athletic freak who can catch Smith early. He notes that Smith is coming off a leg break and looked terrible against Johnny Walker. He acknowledges that Smith dominated the first fight, but believes Spann's power and explosiveness give him a chance to finish early. He is not confident, calling it a lean.

"I'm gonna go Ryan span to catch him early and just get him out of there kind of a front running loaded Victory"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Aug 26, 2023 (fight day)
Anthony Smith

James picks Anthony Smith, citing his cardio advantage and durability. He notes Smith hurt and submitted Spann in their first fight, and Spann's finishing equity drops after round one. He believes Smith is not as washed as some think and that the line is off. He also mentions Smith's historical durability and difficulty to submit.

"I'm all over the Smith side here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 22, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Anthony Smith

The host recalls Smith's submission win over Spann in their first fight and believes Smith's veteran experience and confidence will allow him to replicate that performance. He notes Spann is dangerous early but fades, and expects Smith to exchange in the pocket, hurt Spann, and submit him again. The host likes the under 1.5 rounds prop and finds Smith as a dog 'absolutely crazy'.

under 1.5 rounds
"Give me Smith as the dog which I find absolutely crazy considering this fight you know happened like two years ago not much has changed."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Aug 24, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

Paul initially picks Spann due to his recent wins and early explosiveness, but after Cody corrects him on the first fight result, he switches to Smith. However, his original pick was Spann, so we capture that. He notes Spann is dangerous early but fades, and Smith is durable enough to survive.

under 1.5 rounds
"I'll pick span because he already won seems to have a bit of a grappling Edge early"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 22, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

The MMA Guru picks Ryan Spann in the rematch, believing Anthony Smith has declined physically and mentally. He notes Smith's poor physique and lack of fast-twitch fibers, comparing him to a fighter past his prime. He thinks Spann's scrambling and power will be enough, and that Smith won't land the same hook again. He predicts Spann will catch Smith and finish him, possibly in round two, leading to Smith's retirement.

Finish in round 2 predicted
"I'm gonna go Ryan span at some point catches him in this fight and puts him away maybe round two"
LOSS vs Nikita Krylov
Submission (triangle choke) R1 3:38 · UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili · Mar 11, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nikita Krylov 0 7 of 12 58% 24 of 31 2 of 2 100% 2 2 2:39
Ryan Spann 0 5 of 11 45% 5 of 11 1 of 2 50% 1 2 0:32
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nikita Krylov 0 7 of 12 58% 24 of 31 2 of 2 100% 2 2 2:39
Ryan Spann 0 5 of 11 45% 5 of 11 1 of 2 50% 1 2 0:32
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nikita Krylov 7 of 12 58% 2 of 7 2 of 2 3 of 3 3 of 7 3 of 4 1 of 1
Ryan Spann 5 of 11 45% 4 of 10 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 9 1 of 1 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nikita Krylov 7 of 12 58% 2 of 7 2 of 2 3 of 3 3 of 7 3 of 4 1 of 1
Ryan Spann 5 of 11 45% 4 of 10 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 9 1 of 1 0 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Nikita Krylov vs. Ryan Spann
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Krylov (-170), Spann (+145)

Round 1
Two weeks later than expected, fans in the building should soon be treated to an all-action slugfest in what was supposed to be the UFC Vegas 70 headliner. A combined 38 first-round finishes have come between Krylov (29-9, 10-7 UFC) and Spann (21-7, 7-2 UFC), with stellar stoppage rates of 93% for the former and 86% for the Texan. Referee Herb Dean better buckle up for this one, although he is able to take solace knowing it is still a matchup without any bad blood. With the cancelation a few weeks ago, this is no longer taking place at light heavyweight, and instead at 215 pounds. Fists are bumped before they throw down, and when they do, it should be one heck of a show. Spann reaches out with an early jab as Krylov kicks, and Spann follows it with a few punches that knock Krylov around. Krylov gains space after bouncing off the fence, and he pops Spann with a right hand to wobble the Texan’s legs. Krylov advances to try to keep swinging, and he ends up clinched up with his opponent. Spann throws Krylov down to the mat, and he lands on top and starts fishing for a submission. Krylov sits up and finds his neck in submission danger, but he shucks off the first guillotine choke try as Spann switches to a brabo choke. Krylov stays patient, and Spann adjusts his head and settles down with another guillotine. “The Miner” digs through the pain and discomfort to yank his neck free, and the two fighters work their way back upright. Krylov holds Spann from behind and kicks him in the side of the face awkwardly, and he drags Spann down to the ground. Spann turns the tables to take Krylov down, and Spann winds up in a guillotine choke threat on the other side. Spann slides out the back door and frees himself, and he grabs a two-on-one wrist lock in an attempt to scramble out. Krylov stays tightly pressed to him and lands a few punches that might have hit the back of the head. Spann stands up and Krylov falls over, and Spann jumps on top of him to drop hammers down.
When Spann lands on top, Krylov wraps his legs up around his opponent's head to tighten up a triangle choke. Spann knows this time, there is no way out, as he fell right into a trap. “Superman” is forced to surrender to the choke, as the crowd is silenced at the sudden conclusion of the mighty grappling battle.
This gives the victor, who is not representing a country given the Russian invasion of his home country of Ukraine, his 30th pro win and 28th by stoppage.

The Official Result
Nikita Krylov def. Ryan Spann R1 3:38 via Submission (Triangle Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Mar 5, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

Angelo originally picked Nikita Krylov due to his wrestling and grinding ability, but the illness has significantly reduced his confidence. He still thinks Krylov will win if he is 100%, but he is no longer betting on him. He suggests a prop bet on Ryan Spann inside the distance (decision no action) because Spann is dangerous and the fight is now three rounds instead of five.

Ryan Spann inside the distance (decision no action) bet suggestion
"I'm no longer gonna bet on the key to cry love I've lost that much confidence him I think he probably still wins this... but the bet is definitely going to be Ryan span inside the distance decision no action"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

Big Brady picks Ryan Spann for the slight upset, noting both fighters have durability issues. He questions Krylov's submission defense (submitted six times) and Spann's chin. Brady expects a first-round finish, predicting Spann locks up a guillotine when Krylov shoots for takedowns. He has low confidence but thinks someone gets finished early.

win by submission in round 1
"I'm gonna say span locks up locks up a submission here in the very first round hard to be confident in picking a winner in this fight but I'll take span for the slight upset"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

Cody flips to Ryan Spann, citing Krylov's recent illness and the change from five rounds to three rounds. He thinks Spann's cardio is less of a concern in a three-round fight and notes Spann's submission threat. He believes the narrative of Krylov pulling out is enough to take the underdog.

"I think I'm flip-flopping over to Ryan span and again it's for like nothing other than just bad juju narrative by Nikita Karlov pulls out of a fight two weeks ago"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

Connor picks Krylov, emphasizing his durability and relentless wrestling. He notes that Spann has poor takedown defense (83% takedown defense when excluding the Enrique fight) and that Krylov will keep shooting takedowns. Connor also points out that Krylov has never been knocked out and is crafty in finding ways to win. He expects Krylov to survive Spann's early power and take over with grappling.

Odds mentioned: Krylov opened -170, now -172; Spann opened +145, now +143.
"I think the only reason I would ever pick Ryan Spann in this fight is on the idea that he would knock Nikita Krylov out and that has never happened. ... Krylov, he wrestles everyone. That is really truly how …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Mar 6, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

I think Krylov's improved grappling and takedown game will be key. He should drag Spann to the ground and work from top position, but he must be careful of Spann's guillotine. Spann's early power is a threat, but if Krylov survives the first round, he can take over. I expect a submission or TKO in the latter rounds. However, the early threat from Spann makes me hesitant to bet this fight.

Krylov inside the distance, by submission
"give me krilloff inside the distance let's say by submission but that early threat from Ryan span is going to be it's going to be a lot which will likely keep me off of this fight completely"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

Paul picks Krylov but with less confidence than two weeks ago due to Krylov pulling out of the previous fight. He notes Krylov's improvements and path to victory via takedowns, but questions why Krylov pulled out. He thinks the -170 price is about right and calls it a stay-away.

"crylove is still the pick but I'm even less confident in it this week than I was last week or two weeks ago"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

The MMA Guru picks Nikita Krylov, citing Ryan Spann's weight cut issues and the fact that Spann missed weight in his last fight. He believes Krylov's illness may help him keep weight down, while Spann will struggle with two weight cuts back-to-back. He predicts Krylov will push the pace, take Spann down, and get a TKO or submission in the later rounds.

by TKO or submission, second or third round
"I'm gonna trust in Nikita krylov even though he was Ill been two weeks he's definitely recovered since then I think the illness will help him keep his weight down"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

Zane picks Krylov, agreeing with Connor's assessment. He highlights Spann's terrible takedown defense and Krylov's durability. Zane notes that Krylov is not a clean technician but makes good decisions and is flexible. He expects Krylov to take Spann down and grind out a win, as Spann is chinny and tense.

Odds mentioned: Krylov opened -170, now -172; Spann opened +145, now +143.
"I got a numbers like that. I mean, even with the 50%, how do you not pick Krylov? You know, he's going to keep trying."