Career Averages - Jamie Mullarkey
Career Averages - Francisco Prado
Jamie Mullarkey
Francisco Prado
Jamie Mullarkey - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quillan Salkilld | 0 | 5 of 8 | 62% | 18 of 21 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 | 0 | 0:39 |
| Jamie Mullarkey | 0 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 6 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:14 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Quillan Salkilld | 0 | 5 of 8 | 62% | 18 of 21 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 | 0 | 0:39 |
| Jamie Mullarkey | 0 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 6 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:14 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quillan Salkilld | 5 of 8 | 62% | 1 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 4 | 3 of 5 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Jamie Mullarkey | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Quillan Salkilld | 5 of 8 | 62% | 1 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 4 | 3 of 5 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Jamie Mullarkey | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Salkilld (-850), Mullarkey (+500)
Round 1
The UFC knows exactly what it did matching these two Aussies together. On the one hand, rising talent Salkilld (10-1, 3-0 UFC) is coming off a huge knockout and the biggest win of his career. On the other is a chinny, off-and-on striker in Mullarkey (18-8, 6-6 UFC) whose last four defeats have all come from punches in bunches. Betting odds are massively lopsided in favor of the 26-year-old, and referee Dan Movahedi will serve as the arbiter of what some have called a mismatch. In the sport of MMA, there are no sure things, other than that these two countrymen will touch gloves—and do—to begin.
Salkilld keeps a wide berth early to find his range, slapping the lead leg with a few kicks before shooting for a double. He puts Mullarkey down on his hands and knees, but Mullarkey is able to get up thanks to the wall behind him. Salkilld dings him with a short punch and an elbow, and Mullarkey shuts down the additional takedown effort and turns him about in the clinch. Mullarkey lifts up a single, and he dumps the younger man to the floor. Salkilld bounces up and counters with his own single, and Mullarkey connects with several punches before Salkilld bails on it. Salkilld then puts his arms up in the air to signal that he was not harmed by any of the blows, so Mullarkey runs at him and lifts up a knee on the way. He closes the distance to get hold of Salkilld, wrapping his arms around the waist and looking for some takedown, and Salkilld turns the tables of him and drops him square on his head.
Salkilld wraps his legs around the body to lock up a triangle, and he grabs hold of a rear-naked choke that is on the chin.
He elects to crank the neck to the side rather than get a choke, and with a full head of steam, he squeezes. The torque from the sub is too much for Mullarkey to bear, and because of the excruciating neck crank, he forces Mullarkey to tap out.
The victorious Salkilld promptly climbs to the top of the cage to celebrate, while declaring that he is now 4-0 in the promotion with his sights set high.
The Official Result
Quillan Salkilld def. Jamie Mullarkey R1 3:02 via Submission (Neck Crank)
Angelo picks Quillan Salkilld, citing his well-rounded skills, good takedown defense, and BJJ black belt. He notes that Jamie Mullarkey has no chin and will likely look to wrestle, but Salkilld's takedown defense and jiu-jitsu are good. He acknowledges Mullarkey's volume but says without a chin he can't hang. He plans to bet on Salkilld once odds are available.
Big Brady is very confident in Quillan Salkilld, calling Jamie Mullarkey's chin the second worst in the UFC. He notes Mullarkey was running from Rolando Bedoya and is likely finished. Salkilld has first-round knockouts in his last two fights, and Brady expects the same here.
Cody is very confident in Salkilld, citing his well-rounded game, takedown defense, and power. He notes that Mullarkey has a weak chin and has been knocked out by lesser punchers. He expects Salkilld to win by knockout, likely in the second round.
Connor picks Salkilld, describing him as a creative counter puncher with good eyes and diverse tools. He notes that Mullarkey is slow, not durable, and relies on crashing into opponents, which plays into Salkilld's strengths. He also mentions that Salkilld finished Haqparast, who also finished Mullarkey, indicating a clear stylistic advantage.
Daniel Vreeland confidently picks Salkilld to dominate and likely finish Mullarkey. He praises Salkilld's durability, knockout power, and wrestling, while noting that Mullarkey is a veteran past his prime. Vreeland expects Salkilld to either knock him out or outwork him en route to a clear win.
James picks Salkilld to win by finish, calling him a rising force in the lightweight division. He believes Mullarkey is an aging veteran with durability issues and that Salkilld will run through him in round one or two.
Salkilld is a BJJ black belt with dangerous striking, as shown by his headkick knockout of Nazaret Hackparast. He is on a 10-fight win streak and has good cardio. Mullarkey is a veteran but has durability issues and is on short notice. The host expects Salkilld to win but thinks the line is too high; he prefers the over 2.5 rounds at +125 because Mullarkey may grapple and make it competitive early. Salkilld should pull away late for a decision or late finish.
Paul agrees, highlighting Mullarkey's history of getting knocked out and Salkilld's impressive wrestling and striking. He notes that Salkilld is younger, bigger, and more durable. He expects a finish, possibly by knockout.
The Guru picks Quillan Salkilld, calling him a level above Jamie Mullarkey. He notes Salkilld's finishing ability and predicts a first-round TKO, comparing it to Ruffy's win over Mullarkey. He acknowledges the odds are excessive but agrees with the pick.
Zane picks Salkilld, agreeing that Mullarkey is a bad matchup for himself. He notes that Mullarkey has to be able to crash into opponents with strikes, clinch, and wrestling, but Salkilld can stop him at any point and strand him in a vulnerable position. He also points out that Mullarkey's wins are against older or slower fighters, while dynamic athletes tend to catch him.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamie Mullarkey | 0 | 43 of 89 | 48% | 47 of 94 | 3 of 17 | 17% | 0 | 0 | 5:41 |
| Rolando Bedoya | 0 | 46 of 116 | 39% | 55 of 129 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:07 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jamie Mullarkey | 0 | 3 of 8 | 37% | 3 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:49 |
| Rolando Bedoya | 0 | 5 of 10 | 50% | 8 of 14 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jamie Mullarkey | 0 | 15 of 27 | 55% | 18 of 30 | 0 of 8 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:38 |
| Rolando Bedoya | 0 | 10 of 33 | 30% | 15 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Jamie Mullarkey | 0 | 25 of 54 | 46% | 26 of 55 | 1 of 7 | 14% | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
| Rolando Bedoya | 0 | 31 of 73 | 42% | 32 of 75 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:07 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamie Mullarkey | 43 of 89 | 48% | 32 of 74 | 7 of 10 | 4 of 5 | 40 of 82 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 1 |
| Rolando Bedoya | 46 of 116 | 39% | 32 of 93 | 8 of 13 | 6 of 10 | 37 of 99 | 9 of 16 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jamie Mullarkey | 3 of 8 | 37% | 1 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
| Rolando Bedoya | 5 of 10 | 50% | 2 of 5 | 0 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | |
| 2 | Jamie Mullarkey | 15 of 27 | 55% | 12 of 22 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 13 of 24 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Rolando Bedoya | 10 of 33 | 30% | 6 of 25 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 4 | 8 of 28 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jamie Mullarkey | 25 of 54 | 46% | 19 of 47 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 24 of 51 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Rolando Bedoya | 31 of 73 | 42% | 24 of 63 | 6 of 7 | 1 of 3 | 24 of 62 | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Jamie Mullarkey despite his weak chin, because he believes Mullarkey is the better overall fighter with good grappling and striking. He notes that Mullarkey's opponent Rolando Bedoya has no power and is essentially a human punching bag. Angelo is surprised Mullarkey is the underdog and thinks the line will swing back.
Big Brady picks Rolando Bedoya to win by third-round knockout. He argues that while Mullarkey is more skilled, his chin is extremely fragile and he has been knocked out or dropped repeatedly. He believes Bedoya's durability and volume will be key, and that Mullarkey will eventually get hurt. He notes Bedoya is 0-3 in the UFC but tough.
Cody picks Mullarkey, believing his striking and wrestling will be enough to outwork Bedoya. He notes Bedoya lacks power and has poor takedown defense, while Mullarkey has fought better strikers and mixed in takedowns. He acknowledges Mullarkey's chin is a concern but thinks Bedoya doesn't have the power to exploit it.
Connor agrees, emphasizing that Bedoya is a slow, unpowerful kickboxer with no footwork or speed, while Mullarkey is a tough wrestle-boxer who will make him fight tooth and nail. He notes that Mullarkey's losses are to athletic monsters, and Bedoya is not that. He expects Mullarkey to win a solid all-round MMA fight.
James picks Jamie Mullarkey with his logical head, citing Mullarkey's better boxing fundamentals and takedown threat. However, he is very hesitant because Mullarkey's chin has degraded from wars and Bedoya throws high volume. He admits he might bet a Bedoya KO prop if the odds are right, showing low conviction.
The host thinks Mullarkey is the better overall fighter. He expects Mullarkey's durability to hold up and for him to mix in takedowns and volume to stifle Bedoya and win on the scorecards.
The Guru picks Rolando Bedoya over Jamie Mullarkey, citing Mullarkey's tendency to get wobbled and cut open. He believes Bedoya can handle Mullarkey's physicality, as seen in his fight against Chaos Williams. He expects a scrap where Mullarkey is more prone to damage.
Zane sees Mullarkey as having more breadth and options than Bedoya, who is a slow, unpowerful pocket kickboxer. He notes that Mullarkey's wrestle-boxing approach and durability should be enough to outwork Bedoya, who has lost all three UFC fights and looked bad. He points out that Mullarkey has beaten athletic fighters and lost only to elite power punchers.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurício Ruffy | 1 | 25 of 40 | 62% | 25 of 40 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Jamie Mullarkey | 0 | 14 of 38 | 36% | 14 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maurício Ruffy | 1 | 25 of 40 | 62% | 25 of 40 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Jamie Mullarkey | 0 | 14 of 38 | 36% | 14 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurício Ruffy | 25 of 40 | 62% | 21 of 35 | 0 of 1 | 4 of 4 | 22 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 |
| Jamie Mullarkey | 14 of 38 | 36% | 7 of 28 | 4 of 6 | 3 of 4 | 14 of 38 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maurício Ruffy | 25 of 40 | 62% | 21 of 35 | 0 of 1 | 4 of 4 | 22 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 |
| Jamie Mullarkey | 14 of 38 | 36% | 7 of 28 | 4 of 6 | 3 of 4 | 14 of 38 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Ruffy (-175), Mullarkey (+145)
Round 1
A striker’s delight at 155 pounds will treat fans to conclude the early preliminary portion of the fight card. With all of his wins and losses coming via knockout, Ruffy (9-1, 0-0 UFC) makes no bones about what he wants to do to willing brawler Mullarkey (17-7, 5-5 UFC). Fists are sure to fly in high quantity and intensity, but before they do, referee Mike Beltran checks them in. Before fists meet faces, they come together sportingly. Ruffy drops down to the floor to drill Mullarkey’s low calf with a Mortal Kombat-esque sweeping kick, and Mullarkey just looks at him. Mullarkey looks for a head kick that misses the mark, and Ruffy hammers his lead leg with a more traditional kick. Ruffy pokes out a jab that reddens the nose of his opponent, and he lands another that gets Mullarkey’s attention. Ruffy puts power behind his strikes, and multiple parts of Mullarkey are red in a hurry. Mullarkey slaps a body kick home, and it is one-and-done as he slips away. Ruffy turns to roll with a heavy right hand just in the nick of time, and he powers out a jab and a winging right hand. Ruffy hammers the lead wheel, and another jab of his opens a cut on the bridge of the nose. Ruffy slips a punch and nails Mullarkey with a right hand, and Mullarkey is tough as a two-dollar steak after eating that without flinching. Mullarkey pursues his own jabs, and Ruffy spins with a wheel kick that gets around the guard. Mullarkey crowds him with a punch salvo, and Ruffy shifts and moves and throws back with a few. Mullarkey keeps powering forward, and Ruffy’s defense is able to keep him safe from most of the harm. Mullarkey fakes a takedown, but Ruffy ignores it and smashes Mullarkey in the face with a ruthless right hand. Ruffy has a right hand skim the top of the head, and he ignores a left hand coming back at him. Ruffy dodges a wide right hand, and he leaps forward to trip Mullarkey up with a flying scissor sweep. Both men hit the ground, but they stand back up and trade. Ruffy beans Mullarkey with two stern right hands, and he times a perfect jump knee that smashes open Mullarkey’s nose. Beltran thinks about stopping the fight but lets it play out a bit longer, and Ruffy does not miss a beat as Mullarkey falls to the ground and climbs back up.
The Brazilian fearlessly marches forward, and he unloads with a long string of punches until Mullarkey collapses in a heap. With Mullarkey on his hands and knees about to take some unnecessary damage, Beltran calls a stop to the fight to save the tough Aussie from himself and the onslaught of the UFC newcomer.
This is a statement introduction for Ruffy, who dons the thick-rimmed glasses of his camp, The Fighting Nerds. Ruffy leaps on top of the cage to celebrate his handiwork, and the crowd goes wild in support of their fighter.
The Official Result
Mauricio Ruffy def. Jamie Mullarkey R1 4:42 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo picks Ruffy based on skill sets alone, citing his power and takedown defense. He expresses concern about the huge step up in competition and stage for Ruffy, and notes Mullarkey has been knocked out multiple times. He only considers a bet on Ruffy by knockout if the odds are good.
Big Brady emphasizes Mullarkey's poor chin and Ruffy's power, predicting a first-round knockout. He notes Ruffy's low volume but believes he will land a fight-ending shot. He also mentions a prize pick play on Ruffy under 46.5 significant strikes.
Cody picks Ruffy, citing his knockout power and Mullarkey's questionable chin. He notes Ruffy is coming down from 170 and has finishing ability. Cody expects Ruffy to knock out Mullarkey early.
Daniel Vreeland picks Ruffy by KO, citing his 100% finish rate and sniper-like counter right hand. He notes Ruffy's excellent takedown defense and calf kicks that slow opponents. He believes Mullarkey's chin is vulnerable and that Ruffy will find the big shot in the second or third round after frustrating Mullarkey on the feet.
Ruffy is on a four-fight winning streak and utilizes a Conor McGregor-like striking style with a straight punch down the pipe. Mullarkey has been knocked out three times in the last two years, so his chin won't hold up against Ruffy's precision striking. Ruffy wins by knockout.
Paul picks Ruffy, highlighting Mullarkey's history of getting knocked out and Ruffy's power. He notes Mullarkey's takedown threat is minimal and Ruffy's striking will be too much. Paul expects a knockout.
The MMA Guru picks Maurício Ruffy, believing Jamie Mullarkey is on borrowed time in the UFC. He criticizes Mullarkey's recent performances and close decisions, while praising Ruffy's power, finishing ability, and toughness shown on the Contender Series. He expects Ruffy to win, possibly by knockout, and notes Ruffy's size and dangerous striking.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasrat Haqparast | 2 | 16 of 29 | 55% | 18 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Jamie Mullarkey | 0 | 8 of 23 | 34% | 8 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nasrat Haqparast | 2 | 16 of 29 | 55% | 18 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Jamie Mullarkey | 0 | 8 of 23 | 34% | 8 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasrat Haqparast | 16 of 29 | 55% | 14 of 27 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 13 | 6 of 8 | 6 of 8 |
| Jamie Mullarkey | 8 of 23 | 34% | 3 of 16 | 2 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 8 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nasrat Haqparast | 16 of 29 | 55% | 14 of 27 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 13 | 6 of 8 | 6 of 8 |
| Jamie Mullarkey | 8 of 23 | 34% | 3 of 16 | 2 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 8 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Cody picks Nasrat Haqparast but is not confident. He notes that both fighters are similar blue-collar types, but Mullarkey's durability is a major concern. Cody points out that Mullarkey has been knocked out by lesser power punchers and Haqparast, while not a huge power puncher, can land enough. He also criticizes Haqparast for being an overpriced favorite who often underperforms. Cody says he doesn't like the fight and is not rushing to bet it.
Lucrative James thinks Nasrat's boxing will be too sharp for Mullarkey, especially given Mullarkey's recent KO loss and apparent chin deterioration. However, he questions his own objectivity, wondering if recency bias is skewing his view. He notes that Nasrat can be taken down and doesn't rate either fighter highly, so he is passing on betting. He picks Nasrat to win by KO but with low confidence.
Paul also picks Haqparast but is hesitant. He mentions Mullarkey's questionable durability and Haqparast's volume advantage. Paul notes that Haqparast is a career underachiever and often wins close decisions. He doesn't trust Mullarkey with his money but isn't excited about Haqparast either.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamie Mullarkey | 0 | 88 of 179 | 49% | 88 of 179 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| John Makdessi | 0 | 83 of 188 | 44% | 85 of 190 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jamie Mullarkey | 0 | 22 of 45 | 48% | 22 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| John Makdessi | 0 | 24 of 51 | 47% | 24 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jamie Mullarkey | 0 | 37 of 62 | 59% | 37 of 62 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| John Makdessi | 0 | 21 of 61 | 34% | 21 of 61 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Jamie Mullarkey | 0 | 29 of 72 | 40% | 29 of 72 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| John Makdessi | 0 | 38 of 76 | 50% | 40 of 78 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamie Mullarkey | 88 of 179 | 49% | 38 of 120 | 13 of 20 | 37 of 39 | 88 of 179 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| John Makdessi | 83 of 188 | 44% | 37 of 119 | 22 of 45 | 24 of 24 | 83 of 188 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jamie Mullarkey | 22 of 45 | 48% | 5 of 24 | 4 of 8 | 13 of 13 | 22 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| John Makdessi | 24 of 51 | 47% | 6 of 27 | 10 of 16 | 8 of 8 | 24 of 51 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jamie Mullarkey | 37 of 62 | 59% | 17 of 40 | 8 of 10 | 12 of 12 | 37 of 62 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| John Makdessi | 21 of 61 | 34% | 11 of 40 | 5 of 16 | 5 of 5 | 21 of 61 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jamie Mullarkey | 29 of 72 | 40% | 16 of 56 | 1 of 2 | 12 of 14 | 29 of 72 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| John Makdessi | 38 of 76 | 50% | 20 of 52 | 7 of 13 | 11 of 11 | 38 of 76 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Jamie Mullarkey but hates the -180 price. He notes that Jamie's relentless pressure and takedown attempts should get him a close decision, but he is not dangerous and has poor chin. John Makdessi has good takedown defense and if he keeps it standing, he wins. Angelo avoids betting on Jamie despite picking him.
Big Brady picks the underdog John Makdessi, citing his durability, high volume, and ability to get back up from takedowns. He notes Mullarkey is hittable and has a questionable chin. He thinks Makdessi can outwork Mullarkey over three rounds and predicts a decision win.
Cody picks Mullarkey but is hesitant, noting that Mullarkey has a suspect chin and has been knocked out recently. However, he believes Mullarkey's wrestling and size advantage will be too much for Makdessi, who is a natural featherweight with no knockout power. Cody likes the Mullarkey by decision prop and the over on takedowns.
Daniel Levi picks Jamie Mullarkey but is not crazy about the price. He notes that Makdessi is 38 and has been in many wars, while Mullarkey is younger and has a reach advantage. However, Mullarkey has been knocked out four times, which is a concern. Levi expects Mullarkey to outwork Makdessi down the stretch if he fights with aggression.
Lucrative James leans toward Jamie Mullarkey, citing his youth, tenacity, and a decent win over Prado. He acknowledges Makdessi could win a split decision but notes Makdessi is old and doesn't have knockout power. James expresses slight concern about Mullarkey's chin after a knockout loss, but believes Makdessi is unlikely to finish him. He thinks Mullarkey will dominate.
Mullarkey has improved significantly, blending takedowns behind his striking and managing distance well. He works with the City Kickboxing camp. Makdessi is a veteran who makes fights close but is 38 and may be slowing down. Mullarkey's output and wrestling should earn him a decision win. The over 2.5 rounds is preferred over the moneyline.
Paul picks Mullarkey but is hesitant, citing Mullarkey's durability issues and the -280 price. He notes that Makdessi is a small lightweight with no recent finishes and that Mullarkey should use his wrestling to secure a decision. Paul likes the Mullarkey by decision prop and the over on takedowns.
The MMA Guru picks Jamie Mullarkey over John Makdessi, citing Mullarkey's size advantage (6'0", 74" reach) and physicality. He notes that Mullarkey bullies smaller opponents, as seen in his win over Devonte Smith with body shots and knees. Makdessi is 38 and coming off a loss to Nasrat Haqparast. He believes Mullarkey will bully Makdessi and get a TKO in the first or second round, as Makdessi cannot grapple with him or knock him out.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muhammad Naimov | 0 | 39 of 71 | 54% | 40 of 73 | 3 of 8 | 37% | 0 | 0 | 2:28 |
| Jamie Mullarkey | 1 | 28 of 70 | 40% | 30 of 72 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Muhammad Naimov | 0 | 23 of 45 | 51% | 24 of 46 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:41 |
| Jamie Mullarkey | 0 | 16 of 35 | 45% | 18 of 37 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Muhammad Naimov | 0 | 16 of 26 | 61% | 16 of 27 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:47 |
| Jamie Mullarkey | 1 | 12 of 35 | 34% | 12 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muhammad Naimov | 39 of 71 | 54% | 15 of 43 | 14 of 18 | 10 of 10 | 27 of 56 | 12 of 14 | 0 of 1 |
| Jamie Mullarkey | 28 of 70 | 40% | 17 of 56 | 5 of 8 | 6 of 6 | 20 of 60 | 3 of 5 | 5 of 5 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Muhammad Naimov | 23 of 45 | 51% | 5 of 24 | 11 of 14 | 7 of 7 | 15 of 34 | 8 of 10 | 0 of 1 |
| Jamie Mullarkey | 16 of 35 | 45% | 7 of 24 | 4 of 6 | 5 of 5 | 13 of 31 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Muhammad Naimov | 16 of 26 | 61% | 10 of 19 | 3 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 12 of 22 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Jamie Mullarkey | 12 of 35 | 34% | 10 of 32 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 29 | 0 of 1 | 5 of 5 |
Angelo picks Mullarkey due to short notice for Naimov, but is not touching the odds (-590). He thinks Mullarkey is a jack of all trades and should win, but Naimov is decent and could cause trouble. He notes Mullarkey was preparing for a good striker, so his grappling should be on point. He is not confident enough to bet.
Cody picks Mullarkey, noting his favorable matchup after originally facing a tough wrestler. He highlights Mullarkey's solid cardio, ground game, and power. Cody recalls Naimov's poor Contender Series performance where he was outwrestled and out struck. He thinks Mullarkey's wrestling and durability will be too much for Naimov, even if Naimov has a puncher's chance.
Connor picks Mullarkey, agreeing with the size and short-notice factors. He notes that Naimov's game is based on pocket exchanges and clinch knees, but Mullarkey's toughness and ability to survive should allow him to take over. Connor also points out that Naimov struggles when pressured, and Mullarkey can put his foot on the gas.
Daniel picks Mullarkey, noting that Naimov is a step up in competition and Mullarkey's experience should carry him. He acknowledges the line is high but thinks Mullarkey can use wrestling to control the fight. He mentions that Naimov showed cardio issues in his Contender Series fight, gassing in the third round.
Jacob picks Mullarkey, believing the path to victory via wrestling is obvious. He thinks Naimov is dangerous with unorthodox striking, but Mullarkey should grapple early and win easily. Jacob notes Mullarkey has more power than people think and is a tough matchup. He is confident Mullarkey wins but acknowledges the odds are too high.
Mullarkey is the better overall fighter with a well-rounded game. Naimov is a short-notice debutant with questionable cardio and level of competition. Mullarkey will mix striking and grappling, pull ahead later, and win by decision. The odds are too high (-350), but Mullarkey should win.
Paul picks Mullarkey confidently despite the high price. He notes Mullarkey's toughness, having been dropped by Michael Johnson and recovered. Paul thinks Mullarkey's wrestling and cardio are superior, and that Naimov's Contender Series performance was unimpressive. He expects Mullarkey to take Naimov down, grind him out, and get a TKO in the second or third round. Paul acknowledges the price is steep but sees Mullarkey as safe.
The MMA Guru picks Muhammad Naimov, calling this the main event for him. He notes that Jamie Mullarkey looked good in his last win but that Michael Johnson arguably beat him. He believes Naimov is a different level, with a split decision win over Damir Ismagulov and a win over Matteus Gamrot. He thinks Naimov's body kicks will be key, as Mullarkey keeps his guard high, leaving the body open. He predicts Naimov will open up shots to the head after body work.
Zane picks Mullarkey, citing his size advantage and toughness. He notes that Naimov is a natural featherweight taking the fight on short notice, and his blitzing style may not work against Mullarkey's durability. Zane expects Mullarkey to weather any early storm and take over with his range-based game.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamie Mullarkey | 0 | 59 of 104 | 56% | 78 of 126 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 4:47 |
| Francisco Prado | 0 | 28 of 75 | 37% | 31 of 78 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0:10 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jamie Mullarkey | 0 | 15 of 20 | 75% | 32 of 39 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:39 |
| Francisco Prado | 0 | 7 of 12 | 58% | 9 of 14 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jamie Mullarkey | 0 | 25 of 49 | 51% | 25 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Francisco Prado | 0 | 13 of 38 | 34% | 13 of 38 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Jamie Mullarkey | 0 | 19 of 35 | 54% | 21 of 38 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:08 |
| Francisco Prado | 0 | 8 of 25 | 32% | 9 of 26 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0:10 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamie Mullarkey | 59 of 104 | 56% | 28 of 70 | 13 of 14 | 18 of 20 | 49 of 92 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 12 |
| Francisco Prado | 28 of 75 | 37% | 18 of 58 | 4 of 10 | 6 of 7 | 28 of 75 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jamie Mullarkey | 15 of 20 | 75% | 10 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 9 |
| Francisco Prado | 7 of 12 | 58% | 5 of 9 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jamie Mullarkey | 25 of 49 | 51% | 11 of 33 | 7 of 7 | 7 of 9 | 25 of 49 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Francisco Prado | 13 of 38 | 34% | 7 of 28 | 1 of 4 | 5 of 6 | 13 of 38 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jamie Mullarkey | 19 of 35 | 54% | 7 of 22 | 4 of 5 | 8 of 8 | 17 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
| Francisco Prado | 8 of 25 | 32% | 6 of 21 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Jamie Mullarkey but is not confident, as he worries about Mullarkey's willingness to engage in a striking battle with the explosive Francisco Prado. He notes that Mullarkey should stick to grappling to avoid Prado's power, but the hometown crowd might encourage him to strike. He is not betting on Mullarkey at the current odds.
Big Brady acknowledges Prado's danger early but thinks Mullarkey can weather the storm and break Prado in the second round. He compares it to Mullarkey's fight with Devonte Smith, where Mullarkey pressured and went to the body. He notes both are hittable but expects a finish, leaning Mullarkey by knockout in round 2.
Cody is confident Mullarkey wins, citing Prado's low level of competition and questionable cardio. He notes Mullarkey is a proven UFC veteran who can grind out wins with takedowns and pressure. He thinks Prado's undefeated record is built on cans and he will be overwhelmed by the step up in competition.
Connor agrees with Zane, calling Prado a certified can crusher with potential but lacking training. He notes that Mullarkey is a naturally aggressive fighter who doesn't know he's not good enough, which allows him to compete at a high level. Connor expects Mullarkey to dominate Prado everywhere.
Mullarkey's experience and cardio will be too much for the short-notice debutant Prado. Prado is athletic but green, and his success has come against lower competition. Mullarkey can weather the early storm, then take over with grappling and pressure. Prado will likely gas by the second round. Mullarkey's durability and length allow him to evade Prado's power shots. Expect a finish in the third round via TKO or submission.
Paul agrees Mullarkey is the pick, noting Prado is young (20) and making a huge jump from regional scene to UFC pay-per-view. He thinks Mullarkey's experience and pressure will be too much. He is not excited about the -270 price but sees Mullarkey as a safe parlay piece.
The MMA Guru picks Jamie Mullarkey over Francisco Prado, noting Mullarkey's toughness and improvement. He expects Prado to come out strong but fade, and Mullarkey to finish with knees to the body in the clinch in the second round, similar to his win over Devonte Smith.
Zane picks Mullarkey confidently, stating that Prado is a manufactured prospect with padded record and cannot wrestle. He notes that Mullarkey is hyper-aggressive and will take Prado down and out-wrestle him. Zane also thinks Mullarkey's attitude will be a rude awakening for Prado, and that even on the feet, Mullarkey will shock Prado with his aggression.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamie Mullarkey | 1 | 66 of 190 | 34% | 68 of 194 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:37 |
| Michael Johnson | 0 | 96 of 217 | 44% | 96 of 218 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jamie Mullarkey | 1 | 18 of 42 | 42% | 20 of 45 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:34 |
| Michael Johnson | 0 | 20 of 53 | 37% | 20 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 | |
| 2 | Jamie Mullarkey | 0 | 18 of 57 | 31% | 18 of 58 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Michael Johnson | 0 | 45 of 95 | 47% | 45 of 95 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 | |
| 3 | Jamie Mullarkey | 0 | 30 of 91 | 32% | 30 of 91 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Michael Johnson | 0 | 31 of 69 | 44% | 31 of 70 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamie Mullarkey | 66 of 190 | 34% | 42 of 147 | 22 of 41 | 2 of 2 | 58 of 179 | 4 of 5 | 4 of 6 |
| Michael Johnson | 96 of 217 | 44% | 54 of 160 | 21 of 34 | 21 of 23 | 83 of 195 | 11 of 18 | 2 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jamie Mullarkey | 18 of 42 | 42% | 12 of 33 | 5 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 32 | 3 of 4 | 4 of 6 |
| Michael Johnson | 20 of 53 | 37% | 10 of 37 | 3 of 9 | 7 of 7 | 18 of 47 | 0 of 2 | 2 of 4 | |
| 2 | Jamie Mullarkey | 18 of 57 | 31% | 11 of 44 | 6 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 17 of 56 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Michael Johnson | 45 of 95 | 47% | 24 of 69 | 11 of 15 | 10 of 11 | 34 of 79 | 11 of 16 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jamie Mullarkey | 30 of 91 | 32% | 19 of 70 | 11 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 30 of 91 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Michael Johnson | 31 of 69 | 44% | 20 of 54 | 7 of 10 | 4 of 5 | 31 of 69 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Michael Johnson as a +200 underdog, questioning why Mullarkey is a 2-1 favorite. He highlights Johnson's 78% takedown defense over 25 UFC fights, noting only Khabib and Clay Guida have taken him down multiple times. He believes Johnson's striking is underrated and he is not chinny, having been knocked out only once. He sees Mullarkey as a grappler who has been striking lately, and Johnson's experience gives him the edge.
Big Brady picks Jamie Mullarkey, citing his youth and multiple paths to victory. He notes that Mullarkey can mix in takedowns and make it a dirty fight, which could expose Michael Johnson's questionable ground game and tendency to make mistakes. He acknowledges Johnson is the better striker and could knock Mullarkey out, but believes Mullarkey's durability and pressure will earn him a decision win. He expresses surprise at Mullarkey being a -240 favorite.
Cody thinks Mullarkey's pressure and wrestling will be key against Johnson, who fades in later rounds. He notes Johnson's best round is the first, and if Mullarkey can survive that, he can take over. He believes Mullarkey's durability is still there despite the recent KO loss.
The host bets 1 unit on Michael Johnson at +225 as a value play. He thinks Johnson is the better striker, faster, and could knock out Mullarkey quickly. However, he also acknowledges that Mullarkey could have success and possibly finish Johnson later, so he also bets on the under 2.5 rounds to cover both sides. He sees the optimal outcome as Johnson by KO under 2.5 rounds.
Paul calls this a dogger pass situation. He's tempted by Johnson at plus money but notes Johnson's inconsistency. He thinks the price on Mullarkey is steep and isn't confident either way.
The Guru picks Jamie Mullarkey, praising his technical striking, solid chin, and grappling ability. He believes Mullarkey will wear Johnson down with body work and cage pressure, finishing him in the third round via cumulative damage. He notes Johnson's tendency to gas.
Francisco Prado - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Radtke | 0 | 24 of 47 | 51% | 121 of 164 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 0 | 0 | 9:07 |
| Francisco Prado | 0 | 29 of 66 | 43% | 41 of 79 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 2 | 1:50 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charles Radtke | 0 | 7 of 11 | 63% | 40 of 49 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:50 |
| Francisco Prado | 0 | 8 of 10 | 80% | 9 of 11 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Charles Radtke | 0 | 5 of 8 | 62% | 41 of 54 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:09 |
| Francisco Prado | 0 | 10 of 22 | 45% | 17 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 1:40 | |
| 3 | Charles Radtke | 0 | 12 of 28 | 42% | 40 of 61 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:08 |
| Francisco Prado | 0 | 11 of 34 | 32% | 15 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 1 | 0:10 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Radtke | 24 of 47 | 51% | 24 of 46 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 33 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 13 |
| Francisco Prado | 29 of 66 | 43% | 16 of 46 | 9 of 12 | 4 of 8 | 17 of 45 | 1 of 3 | 11 of 18 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charles Radtke | 7 of 11 | 63% | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 7 |
| Francisco Prado | 8 of 10 | 80% | 2 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Charles Radtke | 5 of 8 | 62% | 5 of 7 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
| Francisco Prado | 10 of 22 | 45% | 7 of 17 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 14 | |
| 3 | Charles Radtke | 12 of 28 | 42% | 12 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 24 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 |
| Francisco Prado | 11 of 34 | 32% | 7 of 25 | 3 of 6 | 1 of 3 | 8 of 27 | 1 of 3 | 2 of 4 |
Angelo picks Charlie Radtke, citing his athletic grappling, powerful striking, and controlling ground game. He notes Radtke's tendency to slow down and be hittable but believes he has more tools than Prado. He expects a decision win, acknowledging Prado's toughness and durability despite his losing streak.
Big Brady is not high on Prado, noting he is undersized for welterweight and has only one UFC win. He thinks Radtke will be the bigger, stronger, more physical fighter with wrestling and jiu-jitsu. He expects Radtke to take down Prado and win by decision, as Prado is durable and has never been finished.
Cody also picks Prado, noting Radtke's low output and Prado's improved wrestling. He thinks Prado can scramble back to his feet and land damaging shots.
Connor picks Radtke based on his wrestling advantage and range tools. He notes that Prado's wrestling is terrible and Radtke can outwrestle him. He acknowledges Radtke's lack of durability but trusts his ability to control the fight with takedowns.
Daniel thinks Radtke has plateaued and is a finished product, while Prado is young, durable, and improving. He expects Prado to be too tough and enthusiastic.
Daniel Vreeland picks Charles Radtke, believing he will dominate. He notes that Radtke is a full-sized welterweight with good cardio and fight IQ, while Prado is moving up and has not shown high-level skills. He thinks Radtke will win clear rounds, possibly by decision.
James picks Radtke based on his grappling advantage, though he notes Radtke's weight cut issues. He expects a decision win via control.
Radtke's grappling and pressure should be enough to outwork Prado. Prado has a better gas tank and takedown defense than Radtke's last opponent, but Radtke's clinch and BJJ are strong. Prado's striking is his best path, but he often grapples unnecessarily. Radtke can grind out a decision, though the line is a bit steep for confidence.
Paul picks Prado as an underdog, believing his power and durability can overcome Radtke's low-volume wrestling. He thinks Prado can land a big shot or win a decision.
The MMA Guru picks Charles Radtke over Francisco Prado. He notes that Prado has lost four in a row and is a bit basic with a Mike Tyson style that hasn't worked at welterweight. Radtke has KO power and looked good against Brenneman, with a wrestling advantage and improved stand-up training with Belal Muhammad. He predicts a 29-28 decision win for Radtke.
Zane picks Radtke, agreeing that his wrestling will be the difference. He notes that Prado is durable but walks blindly into people, making him easy to take down. He acknowledges Radtke's chin issues but trusts his wrestling to secure the win.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikolay Veretennikov | 0 | 47 of 77 | 61% | 64 of 94 | 3 of 10 | 30% | 1 | 0 | 6:49 |
| Francisco Prado | 0 | 56 of 105 | 53% | 84 of 133 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 | 1 | 2:33 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nikolay Veretennikov | 0 | 7 of 9 | 77% | 11 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:59 |
| Francisco Prado | 0 | 17 of 28 | 60% | 36 of 47 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 2:04 | |
| 2 | Nikolay Veretennikov | 0 | 24 of 43 | 55% | 32 of 51 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:55 |
| Francisco Prado | 0 | 26 of 55 | 47% | 32 of 61 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Nikolay Veretennikov | 0 | 16 of 25 | 64% | 21 of 30 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 2:55 |
| Francisco Prado | 0 | 13 of 22 | 59% | 16 of 25 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 0:29 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikolay Veretennikov | 47 of 77 | 61% | 34 of 58 | 5 of 11 | 8 of 8 | 34 of 62 | 5 of 5 | 8 of 10 |
| Francisco Prado | 56 of 105 | 53% | 32 of 78 | 21 of 24 | 3 of 3 | 34 of 75 | 15 of 17 | 7 of 13 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nikolay Veretennikov | 7 of 9 | 77% | 4 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Francisco Prado | 17 of 28 | 60% | 8 of 19 | 8 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 13 | 5 of 6 | 4 of 9 | |
| 2 | Nikolay Veretennikov | 24 of 43 | 55% | 16 of 31 | 2 of 6 | 6 of 6 | 22 of 41 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Francisco Prado | 26 of 55 | 47% | 15 of 43 | 10 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 18 of 47 | 7 of 7 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Nikolay Veretennikov | 16 of 25 | 64% | 14 of 21 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 14 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 9 |
| Francisco Prado | 13 of 22 | 59% | 9 of 16 | 3 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 15 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 3 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Prado (-148), Veretennikov (+124)
Round 1
Coming to the promotion two years ago with a head full of steam, then-21-year-old Prado (12-3, 1-3 UFC) has largely struggled, earning one victory among three deflating losses. He takes a much-needed step back in level of competition when he faces Veretennikov (12-6, 0-2 UFC), who lost on the 2021 season of the Contender Series and worked his way into the promotion with a trio of stoppages. Since then, not so much for the man fighting out of Kings MMA. The welterweight clash, a historic battle between Argentina and Kazakhstan, will be overseen by referee Jason Herzog. They clap hands to get started.
Prado marches his man down hurling a leg kick, and on the counter, he charges to tackle Veretennikov down to the ground. In the first 15 seconds, Prado has assumed half guard, keeping Veretennikov flat on his back while looping his left arm around the head for an arm-triangle choke setup. Prado is on half guard on the other side, and Veretennikov defends with a guillotine choke off his back. This is not a wise decision, as Prado cinches up the counter in the form of a Von Flue—or as we call it on the play-by-play, Von Preux—which forces a wild scramble. Prado spins around to north-south position, and he winds up taking Veretennikov’s back momentarily. Prado willingly turns over to his back to lace up a triangle choke, while Veretennikov comfortably sits on him landing body shots. Prado keeps his legs high even if they may not be quite long enough to lock it up from this position. He transitions to an armbar, and Veretennikov lifts him in the air and violently slams him on his face to break up the submission.
Prado appears to be stunned from the slam, and Veretennikov stands over him dropping down hammers until moving himself back into Prado’s guard. The strikes from above have caused some damage on Prado’s forehead, and he keeps his guard open until Veretennikov stands. Prado just stands back up to follow him, and he takes two stiff knees to the body when pushing forward. Veretennikov connects with two punches and a body kick, and he walks through ha left hand to work the body with several more strikes. Veretennikov spins with a wheel kick to the side of the dome, and he plants his feet and knees the Argentinian in the midsection once more. Prado looks for a takedown, and Veretennikov breaks out of the first effort. Prado transitions from double to single as he looks for a takedown with Veretennikov’s back on the fence, and Veretennikov defends the attempt and tries to counter-throw his adversary to the mat. Veretennikov gives him a few more knees to think about until the bell sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Veretennikov
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Veretennikov
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Veretennikov
Round 2
The fighters get right to business to start off the second round. Prado appears to already be flagging a bit, while Veretennikov is sharp as a tack. He clips Prado with a short burst of punches, shaking up Prado but not forcing him to back again. Instead, Prado doggedly pursues a double, and he lifts Veretennikov up but cannot ground him. Prado is forced to disengage, and he measures a strong calf kick that forces Veretennikov to recoil his leg. Prado uses that success to land a few more strikes, and he allows Veretennikov to spin with a kick. Prado grabs him from behind and suplexes him, turning himself around to assume half guard while Veretennikov has an arm around his neck. Like the last round, this opens Veretennikov up to a Von Flue shoulder choke again.
Veretennikov release his own grip before getting trapped, and Prado blasts him in the face with an elbow that bounces his head off the canvas. Prado stays heavy, smothering Veretennikov with chest-to-chest pressure. Only lifting himself up to strike or set something up, Prado pursues the arm-triangle once more. Veretennikov explodes to turn out of the sub and power back to his feet, and Prado chases him upright. The ground strikes from Prado open a cut on the side of Veretennikov’s eye, but he pays it no mind as he slams his fist on Prado’s body. Prado retaliates with a six-punch flurry ending with one to the liver. Veretennikov shrugs them off and lets fly a high kick, hopping back to avoid another body shot but still taking some damage on the way. Prado dodges a high kick, eats a right hand and fires one back up top. Veretennikov scores a few knees, trips Prado up but does not ground him. They land blows at the same time, with Prado’s the heavier of the two. Veretennikov scores a single body kick before the round concludes.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Prado
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Prado
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Prado
Round 3
There is a glove touch to open the final frame. Prado surges into action, ignoring a low kick to loop a pair of punches over the top. Prado fakes up top to shoot in on the hips, getting hold of a single and lifting Veretennikov in the air. Veretennikov is able to turn him about mid-air to put the Argentinian on his back, but he is quick to bail on the grappling to stand up. Prado follows him with another takedown shot, abandoning to bash Veretennikov with an elbow and a thumping low kick that makes Veretennikov take a turn. Both men crash together letting fists fly, and Veretennikov tries to spin with a wheel kick but is so tired that Prado grips him from behind before the foot comes off the ground. Prado easily gets his foe down and advances to full mount with over three minutes left. Prado slashes down with 12-to-6 elbows, and he allows Veretennikov to turn partially so he can take his back. Prado attacks a choke before he gets a hook in, and he lets it go to drill down another elbow or two.
Veretennikov fights back to his feet, shaking Prado off his back, and he goes to the well with a failed spin kick that results him in getting taken down again. The two scramble, with Prado standing first and trying to get hold of another takedown from the side. Prado settles for a knee to the jaw with Veretennikov leaned over, and he drops down in pursuit of a single. Veretennikov stifles the attempt and looks for his own trip, kneeing Prado in the belly when he does not ground the Argentinian. Veretennikov jumps guard for a guillotine choke, and Prado takes advantage of this play by stepping over to half guard to set up a Von Preux again. Prado pulls his neck out and calms himself down with 20-ish seconds to go. Rather than go for broke and allow Veretennikov to get back up, he wraps up the fight with some moderate ground-and-pound. For the first time tonight, the fighters go the distance.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Prado (29-28 Prado)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Prado (29-28 Prado)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Prado (29-28 Prado)
The Official Result
Nikolay Veretennikov def. Francisco Prado via Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Francisco Prado despite being too small for welterweight, because he can exploit Veretennikov's wrestling holes. He notes Prado's power and durability, and loves the -140 odds, calling it a discount due to Prado's last loss. He plans to bet on Prado.
Big Brady picks Nikolay Veretennikov, questioning Francisco Prado's decision to move up to welterweight. He notes Veretennikov's reach, technical striking, and better volume, while Prado is undersized with poor wrestling. He predicts Veretennikov wins by decision, calling the line questionable.
The host cites Veretennikov's experience and strength of schedule advantage, and believes he can thwart Prado's power punching approach. He expects a full mixed martial arts performance and a win on the scorecards.
The MMA Guru picks Nikolay Veretennikov over Francisco Prado, arguing that Prado is not a welterweight and is too small for the division. He notes Prado's reach disadvantage (69" vs 74") and lack of power, while Veretennikov is well-rounded, taller, and rangier. The Guru believes Prado's game plan is predictable as a shorter fighter, and Veretennikov will win by decision or TKO.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Matthews | 0 | 68 of 184 | 36% | 95 of 215 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:40 |
| Francisco Prado | 0 | 59 of 146 | 40% | 64 of 152 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 2:16 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jake Matthews | 0 | 20 of 58 | 34% | 23 of 62 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Francisco Prado | 0 | 22 of 57 | 38% | 22 of 57 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:33 | |
| 2 | Jake Matthews | 0 | 22 of 57 | 38% | 39 of 76 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Francisco Prado | 0 | 18 of 41 | 43% | 21 of 44 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:16 | |
| 3 | Jake Matthews | 0 | 26 of 69 | 37% | 33 of 77 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:40 |
| Francisco Prado | 0 | 19 of 48 | 39% | 21 of 51 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:27 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Matthews | 68 of 184 | 36% | 39 of 146 | 24 of 33 | 5 of 5 | 56 of 169 | 12 of 15 | 0 of 0 |
| Francisco Prado | 59 of 146 | 40% | 17 of 92 | 19 of 28 | 23 of 26 | 47 of 132 | 11 of 13 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jake Matthews | 20 of 58 | 34% | 17 of 51 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 17 of 54 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Francisco Prado | 22 of 57 | 38% | 5 of 34 | 9 of 12 | 8 of 11 | 18 of 52 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Jake Matthews | 22 of 57 | 38% | 11 of 43 | 11 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 19 of 53 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Francisco Prado | 18 of 41 | 43% | 5 of 25 | 4 of 7 | 9 of 9 | 13 of 35 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jake Matthews | 26 of 69 | 37% | 11 of 52 | 10 of 12 | 5 of 5 | 20 of 62 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Francisco Prado | 19 of 48 | 39% | 7 of 33 | 6 of 9 | 6 of 6 | 16 of 45 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Matthews (-225), Prado (+185)
Round 1
It may be shocking to some that Matthews (20-7, 13-7 UFC) is 30 years of age, but he will be entering into his 21st UFC outing as the main card opens up. “The Celtic Kid” will have to tangle with Argentinian gunslinger Prado (12-2, 1-2 UFC), who has 12 career wins with six by submission and the other six via knockout. The welterweights will be overseen by referee Mike Beltran, who plans on keeping things on the up-and-up following the glove touch. Matthews jabs his way forward, skirting away from a low kick early. Matthews follows a jab with a right hand, and he dips to dodge a looping hook. Matthews steps in to mark up Prado with a sharp right hand, and Prado kicks and flips himself over to get back to his feet. Both men meet in the middle and throw massive leather, and Prado gets stunned momentarily but is ready and willing to keep brawling if the mood fits them. Matthews peels back, instead measuring with long, straight punches. Prado lunges at him and tries to spin with a back fist, but the strike goes wide. Prado gets in a low kick but rips the body with a right hand, and the two clash into a clinch that allows Matthews to bust Prado in the chops with uppercuts. Matthews pushes off and takes a body shot on the way out. Matthews strikes first and last in a combination, and he lets Prado escape out the side so he can time a body kick. They proceed to pop one another with simultaneous hooks, and Prado keeps sitting down on sheer power. The leg kicks are effective for the Argentinian, who escapes danger by a matter of millimeters as the two swing bad intentions at one another’s skull. Matthews finds his target with a piercing right hand again and again, damaging Prado’s face but not drawing blood. Prado rushes forward to get hold of a body lock, and he lowers the Aussie to his back with a falling slam. Matthews absorbs an elbow to prompt him to stand up quickly, and he engages in a short but fierce slugfest where he does cut open Prado’s right eyebrow. As the punches continue to come from Matthews, he chases his foe down until the bell sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Matthews
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Matthews
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Matthews
Round 2
The fighters clap hands to get going, and it is Matthews who cuts the cage off right off the bat. Prado is lured into a high-amplitude swing fest, with Matthews the faster, more accurate of the two. Prado uses a standing elbow to frame off, only for Matthews to pounce and split a cut open on the bridge of the nose. Prado keeps Matthews honest with his haymakers, but Matthews is defter and able to keep Prado on his back foot. Prado’s left hook still gets in, and his takedown shot is shoved aside. Prado drives a knee on the jaw, and he gets driven back by a fierce left hand. Prado slings a hard leg kick, but it is one-and-done as Matthews has him backing away. Prado rips a left to the liver and fakes a spin so he can shoot for a takedown, but Matthews is wise to it and punches him in the face in response. Matthews intercepts Prado coming in with an uppercut, and he has his takedown defense ready to shut down an entry. Prado succeeds in planting Matthews back against the fence, grinding on the veteran and working on him with knees and short shots. Matthews wraps up a possible submission setup, and he pushes Prado away to his preferred range. Matthews snaps the head back with a litany of uppercuts, and he parries a front kick when backing away. Matthews’ hands are sharp and active, putting several together every time Prado hurls one big one. Another exchange leads to a cut on the top of Prado’s hairline on the left side, and blood streams immediately into his eye. The horn blares.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Matthews
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Matthews
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Matthews
Round 3
There is a clap of hands to open the final frame, and Matthews fights behind a jab to get inside. This leads to huge punches from both sides, and Matthews’ land first and cleaner. Prado goes to the body with a kick as he backs away, and he loops a right hand that Matthews is able to dodge. Matthews’ volume punching is forcing Prado to fight conservatively, and it allows Matthews to pick up on the timing when Prado loads up at him. Matthews strings two or three together as Prado snaps one punch off, and he slaps Prado in the face with the instep of his foot. The Argentinian shoots for a takedown in the open cage, and his effort is tossed aside without much wasted movement. Matthews sits down on two heavy left hands, blasting Prado in the jaw and stunning him two times in a row. Prado closes in to clinch and get his head back, only to lean too far down to absorb a knee on the chin. Matthews gets a little space and starts rattling off short combinations, while Prado is relegated to single power swings. Matthews dips and pops Prado with two right hands after evading a massive blow, and he lets Prado overswing so he can further touch him. Matthews leans far enough down to avoid two punches, and he opens up with a right hand that snaps the head back before clinching Prado. Prado backs away out of it and shoots for a takedown, and the two clash heads. Matthews grinds on his man against the fencing as seconds tick off the clock, hanging on with knees to the body and thigh until the match concludes.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Matthews (30-27 Matthews)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Matthews (30-27 Matthews)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Matthews (30-27 Matthews)
The Official Result
Jake Matthews def. Francisco Prado via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Big Brady picks Jake Matthews, citing his technical striking advantage and superior grappling. He notes that Prado is moving up a weight class and will be undersized. He also mentions the hometown advantage for Matthews in Australia. However, he acknowledges Matthews' inconsistency. Brady predicts a competitive decision win for Matthews.
Connor also picks Matthews, agreeing with Zane's analysis. He notes that Prado is a brawler who will walk into Matthews' shots. He adds that Matthews' back-foot boxing should work well. However, he hopes Prado can make it interesting by just swarming, but expects Matthews to win.
Matthews impressed with his ability to take opponents down in his last fight. He will mix striking and grappling to keep Prado on the defensive. The pick is for Matthews to win by decision.
Zane picks Matthews, noting that Prado has no range game and poor defense. Matthews can potshot from the back foot and avoid Prado's hooks. He thinks Matthews' speed and technical boxing will be too much. However, he dislikes the booking because Matthews is a gatekeeper who should be fighting prospects, not getting favorable matchups.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Zellhuber | 0 | 120 of 272 | 44% | 120 of 272 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Francisco Prado | 0 | 90 of 246 | 36% | 91 of 249 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:25 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Daniel Zellhuber | 0 | 27 of 60 | 45% | 27 of 60 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Francisco Prado | 0 | 29 of 73 | 39% | 29 of 75 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:25 | |
| 2 | Daniel Zellhuber | 0 | 50 of 110 | 45% | 50 of 110 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Francisco Prado | 0 | 32 of 88 | 36% | 33 of 89 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Daniel Zellhuber | 0 | 43 of 102 | 42% | 43 of 102 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Francisco Prado | 0 | 29 of 85 | 34% | 29 of 85 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Zellhuber | 120 of 272 | 44% | 87 of 228 | 25 of 36 | 8 of 8 | 117 of 268 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Francisco Prado | 90 of 246 | 36% | 30 of 155 | 26 of 47 | 34 of 44 | 88 of 244 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Daniel Zellhuber | 27 of 60 | 45% | 14 of 41 | 9 of 15 | 4 of 4 | 27 of 59 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Francisco Prado | 29 of 73 | 39% | 12 of 50 | 5 of 7 | 12 of 16 | 27 of 71 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Daniel Zellhuber | 50 of 110 | 45% | 42 of 100 | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 48 of 108 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Francisco Prado | 32 of 88 | 36% | 8 of 54 | 11 of 19 | 13 of 15 | 32 of 88 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Daniel Zellhuber | 43 of 102 | 42% | 31 of 87 | 8 of 11 | 4 of 4 | 42 of 101 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Francisco Prado | 29 of 85 | 34% | 10 of 51 | 10 of 21 | 9 of 13 | 29 of 85 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Zellhuber as the more well-rounded fighter, citing his length, takedown defense, and ability to threaten submissions. He believes Zellhuber will avoid Prado's early storm and take over as Prado fades. He mentions a decision win is likely but also considers a no action bet.
Big Brady picks Daniel Zellhuber to win by decision. He notes that Zellhuber is a hometown fighter from Mexico City and has a height and reach advantage. He likes Zellhuber's volume, cardio, and sneaky power and submission game. He is not high on Francisco Prado, who has fought lower-level competition. Brady expects the fight to be competitive but thinks Zellhuber will do enough to win a decision.
Cody picks Prado by KO in round 1, having bet that prop at +1300. He notes Zellhuber's chin is sketchy and he keeps his chin up, making him hittable. He thinks Prado's power could cause problems, though he admits Zellhuber has more intangibles. He is not touching the moneyline.
The host sees Zellhuber as an improving prospect with a rangy striking style and slick jiu-jitsu. He believes Zellhuber's footwork and straight shots will keep Prado from getting inside the pocket, and even if Prado tries to take it to the ground, his wrestling isn't good enough. He predicts Zellhuber will touch up Prado, possibly get a late finish, but ultimately win on the scorecards.
Paul picks Zellhuber, citing his superior volume, speed, length, and developing ground game. He notes Zellhuber's cast-iron chin and ability to take a punch to give back two or three. He believes Zellhuber's volume and range will overtake Prado, and he may mix in takedowns and grappling. He is backing Zellhuber.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Francisco Prado | 0 | 14 of 33 | 42% | 16 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ottman Azaitar | 1 | 38 of 57 | 66% | 42 of 61 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:49 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Francisco Prado | 0 | 14 of 33 | 42% | 16 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ottman Azaitar | 1 | 38 of 57 | 66% | 42 of 61 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:49 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Francisco Prado | 14 of 33 | 42% | 6 of 20 | 7 of 11 | 1 of 2 | 12 of 28 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Ottman Azaitar | 38 of 57 | 66% | 31 of 46 | 2 of 6 | 5 of 5 | 17 of 30 | 1 of 1 | 20 of 26 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Francisco Prado | 14 of 33 | 42% | 6 of 20 | 7 of 11 | 1 of 2 | 12 of 28 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Ottman Azaitar | 38 of 57 | 66% | 31 of 46 | 2 of 6 | 5 of 5 | 17 of 30 | 1 of 1 | 20 of 26 |
Angelo picks Francisco Prado, citing more tools in his bag and the fact that he wasn't knocked out eight months ago like Azaitar. He notes both are powerful strikers who will go at it recklessly. He recommends betting on the fight not going the distance, even if juiced at -350, as a parlay piece. He thinks Azaitar looked terrible in his last fight after a two-year layoff.
Big Brady picks Ottman Azaitar with little confidence, expecting a knockout. He notes Prado has a 100% finish rate but questionable striking defense, blocking punches with his face. Azaitar has power and can knock anyone out. He thinks someone gets knocked out, and he picks Azaitar to land a clean shot on Prado's 'massive head' and put him out in the first round.
Cody leans toward Azaitar at plus money, citing his better level of competition and knockout power. He thinks Azaitar's power in both hands is a threat and that Prado's cardio is unknown. He acknowledges Prado could take over if it goes past the first round, but prefers Azaitar as the pre-fight play at +100. He also considers a live bet on Prado if he survives the first round.
The host is surprised Azaitar is the underdog, citing his experience and knockout power. He thinks Prado is not ready for Azaitar's explosivity, having faced lower-level competition. He picks Azaitar by knockout, noting the under 1.5 rounds prop is also a good play.
Paul picks Prado, citing youth and improvement. He thinks Prado's takedown defense is dreadful but his striking is solid and he hits hard. He expects Prado to have the chin to endure an early war and take over if it goes past the first round. He notes Azaitar is stiff and rigid in striking, and Prado's performance against Malarkey on short notice was promising.
The MMA Guru picks Francisco Prado over Ottman Azaitar, highlighting Prado's early-round finishing ability, hand speed, and durability after a competitive loss to Jamie Mullarkey. He questions Azaitar's confidence after a KO loss and notes his age (33). He predicts Prado wins by first-round KO.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamie Mullarkey | 0 | 59 of 104 | 56% | 78 of 126 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 4:47 |
| Francisco Prado | 0 | 28 of 75 | 37% | 31 of 78 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0:10 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jamie Mullarkey | 0 | 15 of 20 | 75% | 32 of 39 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:39 |
| Francisco Prado | 0 | 7 of 12 | 58% | 9 of 14 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jamie Mullarkey | 0 | 25 of 49 | 51% | 25 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Francisco Prado | 0 | 13 of 38 | 34% | 13 of 38 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Jamie Mullarkey | 0 | 19 of 35 | 54% | 21 of 38 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:08 |
| Francisco Prado | 0 | 8 of 25 | 32% | 9 of 26 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0:10 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamie Mullarkey | 59 of 104 | 56% | 28 of 70 | 13 of 14 | 18 of 20 | 49 of 92 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 12 |
| Francisco Prado | 28 of 75 | 37% | 18 of 58 | 4 of 10 | 6 of 7 | 28 of 75 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jamie Mullarkey | 15 of 20 | 75% | 10 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 9 |
| Francisco Prado | 7 of 12 | 58% | 5 of 9 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jamie Mullarkey | 25 of 49 | 51% | 11 of 33 | 7 of 7 | 7 of 9 | 25 of 49 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Francisco Prado | 13 of 38 | 34% | 7 of 28 | 1 of 4 | 5 of 6 | 13 of 38 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jamie Mullarkey | 19 of 35 | 54% | 7 of 22 | 4 of 5 | 8 of 8 | 17 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
| Francisco Prado | 8 of 25 | 32% | 6 of 21 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Jamie Mullarkey but is not confident, as he worries about Mullarkey's willingness to engage in a striking battle with the explosive Francisco Prado. He notes that Mullarkey should stick to grappling to avoid Prado's power, but the hometown crowd might encourage him to strike. He is not betting on Mullarkey at the current odds.
Big Brady acknowledges Prado's danger early but thinks Mullarkey can weather the storm and break Prado in the second round. He compares it to Mullarkey's fight with Devonte Smith, where Mullarkey pressured and went to the body. He notes both are hittable but expects a finish, leaning Mullarkey by knockout in round 2.
Cody is confident Mullarkey wins, citing Prado's low level of competition and questionable cardio. He notes Mullarkey is a proven UFC veteran who can grind out wins with takedowns and pressure. He thinks Prado's undefeated record is built on cans and he will be overwhelmed by the step up in competition.
Connor agrees with Zane, calling Prado a certified can crusher with potential but lacking training. He notes that Mullarkey is a naturally aggressive fighter who doesn't know he's not good enough, which allows him to compete at a high level. Connor expects Mullarkey to dominate Prado everywhere.
Mullarkey's experience and cardio will be too much for the short-notice debutant Prado. Prado is athletic but green, and his success has come against lower competition. Mullarkey can weather the early storm, then take over with grappling and pressure. Prado will likely gas by the second round. Mullarkey's durability and length allow him to evade Prado's power shots. Expect a finish in the third round via TKO or submission.
Paul agrees Mullarkey is the pick, noting Prado is young (20) and making a huge jump from regional scene to UFC pay-per-view. He thinks Mullarkey's experience and pressure will be too much. He is not excited about the -270 price but sees Mullarkey as a safe parlay piece.
The MMA Guru picks Jamie Mullarkey over Francisco Prado, noting Mullarkey's toughness and improvement. He expects Prado to come out strong but fade, and Mullarkey to finish with knees to the body in the clinch in the second round, similar to his win over Devonte Smith.
Zane picks Mullarkey confidently, stating that Prado is a manufactured prospect with padded record and cannot wrestle. He notes that Mullarkey is hyper-aggressive and will take Prado down and out-wrestle him. Zane also thinks Mullarkey's attitude will be a rude awakening for Prado, and that even on the feet, Mullarkey will shock Prado with his aggression.
Expert Picks (8)
Angelo picks Jamie Mullarkey but is not confident, as he worries about Mullarkey's willingness to engage in a striking battle with the explosive Francisco Prado. He notes that Mullarkey should stick to grappling to avoid Prado's power, but the hometown crowd might encourage him to strike. He is not betting on Mullarkey at the current odds.
Big Brady acknowledges Prado's danger early but thinks Mullarkey can weather the storm and break Prado in the second round. He compares it to Mullarkey's fight with Devonte Smith, where Mullarkey pressured and went to the body. He notes both are hittable but expects a finish, leaning Mullarkey by knockout in round 2.
Cody is confident Mullarkey wins, citing Prado's low level of competition and questionable cardio. He notes Mullarkey is a proven UFC veteran who can grind out wins with takedowns and pressure. He thinks Prado's undefeated record is built on cans and he will be overwhelmed by the step up in competition.
Connor agrees with Zane, calling Prado a certified can crusher with potential but lacking training. He notes that Mullarkey is a naturally aggressive fighter who doesn't know he's not good enough, which allows him to compete at a high level. Connor expects Mullarkey to dominate Prado everywhere.
Mullarkey's experience and cardio will be too much for the short-notice debutant Prado. Prado is athletic but green, and his success has come against lower competition. Mullarkey can weather the early storm, then take over with grappling and pressure. Prado will likely gas by the second round. Mullarkey's durability and length allow him to evade Prado's power shots. Expect a finish in the third round via TKO or submission.
Paul agrees Mullarkey is the pick, noting Prado is young (20) and making a huge jump from regional scene to UFC pay-per-view. He thinks Mullarkey's experience and pressure will be too much. He is not excited about the -270 price but sees Mullarkey as a safe parlay piece.
The MMA Guru picks Jamie Mullarkey over Francisco Prado, noting Mullarkey's toughness and improvement. He expects Prado to come out strong but fade, and Mullarkey to finish with knees to the body in the clinch in the second round, similar to his win over Devonte Smith.
Zane picks Mullarkey confidently, stating that Prado is a manufactured prospect with padded record and cannot wrestle. He notes that Mullarkey is hyper-aggressive and will take Prado down and out-wrestle him. Zane also thinks Mullarkey's attitude will be a rude awakening for Prado, and that even on the feet, Mullarkey will shock Prado with his aggression.
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