vs
-180 +160
UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski · Feb 12, 2023 · Featherweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski Next Fight
Age 33
Height 5' 11"
Reach 71"
Weight 145 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 41
Height 5' 6"
Reach 70.0"
Weight 145 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Yair Rodríguez
4.65 SLpM
46.0% Str. Acc.
3.78 SApM
52.0% Str. Def.
0.71 TD Avg
29.0% TD Acc.
59.0% TD Def.
0.6 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Josh Emmett
3.67 SLpM
35.0% Str. Acc.
4.52 SApM
59.0% Str. Def.
1.07 TD Avg
36.0% TD Acc.
43.0% TD Def.
0.1 Sub. Avg
Yair Rodríguez
Moneyline
Caesars -180
KO/TKO
BetWay +275
Submission
FanDuel +1500
Decision
BetRivers +165
Josh Emmett
Moneyline
FanDuel +160
KO/TKO
BetRivers +400
Submission
FanDuel +2600
Decision
FanDuel +460
Yair Rodríguez - Fight History
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · Apr 12, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Yair Rodríguez 1 70 of 122 57% 97 of 157 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:43
Patrício Pitbull 0 17 of 50 34% 23 of 60 1 of 4 25% 1 0 1:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Yair Rodríguez 0 11 of 21 52% 26 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Patrício Pitbull 0 4 of 10 40% 5 of 12 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:35
2 Yair Rodríguez 0 21 of 45 46% 25 of 52 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:02
Patrício Pitbull 0 8 of 26 30% 8 of 26 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:28
3 Yair Rodríguez 1 38 of 56 67% 46 of 65 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:41
Patrício Pitbull 0 5 of 14 35% 10 of 22 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Yair Rodríguez 70 of 122 57% 38 of 82 18 of 23 14 of 17 43 of 89 2 of 2 25 of 31
Patrício Pitbull 17 of 50 34% 8 of 38 2 of 4 7 of 8 17 of 50 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Yair Rodríguez 11 of 21 52% 3 of 10 4 of 5 4 of 6 10 of 20 1 of 1 0 of 0
Patrício Pitbull 4 of 10 40% 0 of 5 0 of 1 4 of 4 4 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Yair Rodríguez 21 of 45 46% 8 of 28 6 of 9 7 of 8 20 of 44 1 of 1 0 of 0
Patrício Pitbull 8 of 26 30% 5 of 21 1 of 2 2 of 3 8 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Yair Rodríguez 38 of 56 67% 27 of 44 8 of 9 3 of 3 13 of 25 0 of 0 25 of 31
Patrício Pitbull 5 of 14 35% 3 of 12 1 of 1 1 of 1 5 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Yair Rodríguez

Connor picks Rodríguez, echoing Zane's reasoning about Pitbull's vulnerability to aggressive strikers. He notes that Pitbull has struggled against fighters who pressure him early and that Rodríguez's length and kicking game pose unique problems. Connor acknowledges Pitbull's experience and ability to adjust between fights but believes Rodríguez's style is a bad matchup for the current version of Pitbull.

"I'm picking Yaya Rodriguez. I think I'm picking Yaya Rodriguez too."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Apr 16, 2025 (fight day)
Yair Rodríguez

Daniel Levi states that Yair Rodríguez schooled Patrício Pitbull, being much faster and more dynamic, and was a couple steps ahead all night. He notes that Pitbull looked shopworn and didn't shine in the big moment.

"Yaya Rodriguez just schooled Patricio Pitu and you know on tape it was there but sometimes you hold out hope that these legends are going to have you know they're going to shine bright in a big moment like that …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Apr 9, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Patrício Pitbull

Lucrative James picks Patrício Pitbull to win, citing his experience, grappling advantage, and power. He believes Pitbull's wrestling and top control will be key, and he expects him to submit or ground-and-pound Rodríguez. He acknowledges Rodríguez's flashy kicks and danger but thinks Pitbull's cerebral style and veteran savvy will prevail. He notes that Pitbull is 37 and may be past his prime, but he still sees him as the better fighter overall. He also thinks the UFC is setting Pitbull up for a win to inject new blood into the division.

He predicts Pitbull wins inside the distance, possibly via submission or ground and pound.
"I'm predicting Patricio Pitbull to get the win on Yay Rodriguez. And I'm actually predicting him to get the win inside the distance."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Yair Rodríguez

Zane picks Rodríguez, citing Pitbull's history of losing to aggressive, high-output fighters who take the initiative early. He notes that Pitbull has become a patient counter-puncher, which plays into Rodríguez's strengths as a long-range striker with dynamic kicks. Zane points to Pitbull's recent loss to Chihiro Suzuki as evidence that he can be overwhelmed by a powerful, wild striker. He acknowledges Pitbull's grappling and experience but believes Rodríguez's reach and willingness to attack from distance will be decisive.

"I'm picking Yaya Rodriguez. I think I'm picking Yaya Rodriguez too."
LOSS vs Brian Ortega
Submission (arm-triangle choke) R3 0:58 · UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 · Feb 24, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Brian Ortega 1 55 of 115 47% 64 of 135 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:32
Yair Rodríguez 0 28 of 73 38% 47 of 104 3 of 6 50% 1 0 5:21
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Brian Ortega 1 45 of 91 49% 50 of 102 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:32
Yair Rodríguez 0 6 of 28 21% 7 of 30 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:42
2 Brian Ortega 0 9 of 17 52% 13 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Yair Rodríguez 0 22 of 44 50% 39 of 70 1 of 3 33% 0 0 3:55
3 Brian Ortega 0 1 of 7 14% 1 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Yair Rodríguez 0 0 of 1 0% 1 of 4 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:44
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Brian Ortega 55 of 115 47% 36 of 91 11 of 15 8 of 9 34 of 86 9 of 12 12 of 17
Yair Rodríguez 28 of 73 38% 26 of 69 2 of 4 0 of 0 13 of 50 2 of 3 13 of 20
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Brian Ortega 45 of 91 49% 28 of 69 10 of 14 7 of 8 24 of 62 9 of 12 12 of 17
Yair Rodríguez 6 of 28 21% 5 of 27 1 of 1 0 of 0 6 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Brian Ortega 9 of 17 52% 7 of 15 1 of 1 1 of 1 9 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
Yair Rodríguez 22 of 44 50% 21 of 41 1 of 3 0 of 0 7 of 21 2 of 3 13 of 20
3 Brian Ortega 1 of 7 14% 1 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Yair Rodríguez 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Feb 18, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Brian Ortega

Angelo picks Ortega with low confidence, citing the first fight where Ortega was winning before his shoulder injury. He notes the elevation and crowd in Mexico could favor Rodriguez, but trusts his brain over his gut. He worries about Ortega's long layoff but believes he can squeak out a win.

"I think Brian Orga can win this fight I am split though my brain and my gut are saying two different things"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 19, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Yair Rodríguez

Big Brady picks Yair Rodríguez to win by third-round knockout. He notes that Rodríguez has been more active and looked impressive against Josh Emmett, while Ortega has had a long layoff. He believes Rodríguez has the advantage on the feet with his kicks and power, and that Ortega is hittable. He doubts Ortega's wrestling will be effective, as Rodríguez stuffed takedowns in their first fight. He expects Rodríguez to dominate at range and eventually finish Ortega.

Rodríguez wins by KO in round 3
"I got to go Yer here um I think he's going to be able to stuff a lot of these takedowns Ortega's never really had the best wrestling and on the feed I just kind of think it's one-way traffic …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 21, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Brian Ortega

Cody picks Ortega, noting that in their first fight Ortega was winning before the shoulder injury. He believes Ortega's skills haven't digressed, his jiu-jitsu is second to none, and his wrestling is good enough to take down Rodriguez. He also mentions Ortega's ability to come back better after layoffs, as he did after the Holloway loss. He considers the plus 130 price good value.

"I'll take the dog Bri Orga nice"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 22, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Yair Rodríguez

The host recalls the first fight where Rodríguez kept Ortega at bay with striking and Ortega's only success was a clinch takedown that led to an injury. He believes Rodríguez needs to keep the fight standing, and even if it goes to the ground, Rodríguez has worked on his jiu-jitsu to defend and get back to his feet. He predicts Rodríguez will finish Ortega by the third round.

Finish by third round
"Rodriguez really needs to keep this fight in the Striking real otherwise Ortega can utilize the one advantage he normally holds in his matchup and that's what his submission game but it's clear Rodriguez has been working on his Jiu-Jitsu …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Feb 21, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Brian Ortega

Paul is leaning towards Ortega but is hesitant due to the year-and-a-half layoff, Ortega's age (33), and his recent record (lost last two, hasn't finished in six years). However, he acknowledges Ortega matched up well in the first fight and has the skills to win. He says if he had a gun to his head he'd pick Ortega, but it's a wild card pick.

"yeah like want to pick Ortega think I might pick Ortega if I got a gun to my head take a couple underdogs on this card Ortega certainly is one that is looking appealing"
TKO (punches) R3 4:19 · UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez · Jul 08, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alexander Volkanovski 0 66 of 97 68% 149 of 198 7 of 12 58% 0 0 7:13
Yair Rodríguez 0 40 of 80 50% 57 of 103 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alexander Volkanovski 0 11 of 15 73% 49 of 58 3 of 4 75% 0 0 3:22
Yair Rodríguez 0 5 of 9 55% 10 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Alexander Volkanovski 0 18 of 25 72% 55 of 75 3 of 6 50% 0 0 3:33
Yair Rodríguez 0 12 of 19 63% 24 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Alexander Volkanovski 0 37 of 57 64% 45 of 65 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:18
Yair Rodríguez 0 23 of 52 44% 23 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alexander Volkanovski 66 of 97 68% 48 of 69 4 of 5 14 of 23 25 of 45 4 of 6 37 of 46
Yair Rodríguez 40 of 80 50% 13 of 49 11 of 14 16 of 17 38 of 77 0 of 0 2 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alexander Volkanovski 11 of 15 73% 9 of 11 0 of 0 2 of 4 2 of 4 0 of 0 9 of 11
Yair Rodríguez 5 of 9 55% 1 of 4 1 of 1 3 of 4 4 of 8 0 of 0 1 of 1
2 Alexander Volkanovski 18 of 25 72% 15 of 19 1 of 1 2 of 5 4 of 10 1 of 1 13 of 14
Yair Rodríguez 12 of 19 63% 4 of 10 5 of 6 3 of 3 11 of 17 0 of 0 1 of 2
3 Alexander Volkanovski 37 of 57 64% 24 of 39 3 of 4 10 of 14 19 of 31 3 of 5 15 of 21
Yair Rodríguez 23 of 52 44% 8 of 35 5 of 7 10 of 10 23 of 52 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 2, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

Angelo is confident in Volkanovski, calling the -400 odds appropriate. He highlights Volkanovski's speed, kick usage, takedowns, and strength, and notes his performance against Islam Makhachev. He thinks Volkanovski will control the pace, mix in takedowns, and keep Rodríguez on the back foot, preventing his wild striking. He acknowledges Rodríguez's danger but believes Volkanovski is on another level.

"Alex is the pick he's sitting at like minus 400 and that feels very appropriate to me"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 1, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

Big Brady picks Alexander Volkanovski to win by late stoppage (fourth round). He notes that Volkanovski is the better striker with more volume and better defense, and he has a huge advantage in wrestling and ground and pound. He points out that Rodríguez has poor takedown defense and no answers off his back, as seen in fights against Frankie Edgar, Jeremy Stephens, Max Holloway, and Josh Emmett. He believes Volkanovski will take Rodríguez down, beat him up, and get a doctor stoppage or TKO in the later rounds.

fourth round stoppage (TKO/doctor stoppage)
"give me Alexander volkanovski and still I think he finishes Yaya Rodriguez late in this fight"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

Cody picks Volkanovski to retain, citing his durability, cardio, and submission defense. He notes Yair's danger with unorthodox strikes but believes Volk's constant pressure and takedowns will be decisive. He mentions Volk's training with Blood Diamond to mimic Yair's style. He leans toward Volk by decision but wouldn't be surprised by a stoppage.

Volkanovski by decision (+120), inside distance (+160), over rounds, significant strikes over 135.5, takedowns over 3
"I gotta go with the King Alexander volkonowski to retain"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

Connor picks Volkanovski, emphasizing his championship quality and preparation. He acknowledges Yair's danger, especially his kicking game and durability, but believes Volkanovski's pressure and wrestling will be decisive. Connor notes that Volkanovski's ability to take Yair down and control him on the ground is the path to victory.

"You pretty much have to pick Volkanovski. Yeah, because he's Volkanovski."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

Daniel Levi picks Volkanovski, citing his elite fainting game, ability to out-jab taller opponents, and superior boxing in close range. He notes Volkanovski's takedown of Islam Makhachev as evidence of his wrestling prowess, which he believes will be a key advantage against Yair's suspect takedown defense. Levi acknowledges Yair's unique kicking arsenal and the head-kick KO history of Volkanovski, but expects Volkanovski's pressure and cardio to take over as the fight progresses. He also mentions that Yair's energy-intensive style may lead to a slowdown in later rounds.

"I'm picking Volk."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2023 (fight day)
Alexander Volkanovski

James picks Volkanovski to win by ground-and-pound, likely in rounds 3 or 4. He believes Volkanovski's superior fight IQ and grappling advantage will be decisive. He notes Rodríguez has clear deficiencies on the ground and Volkanovski has heavy ground-and-pound. He also mentions the weight cut factor for Volkanovski moving back down, but still favors him. He does not advocate betting the moneyline at -400, but likes the inside distance prop.

Volkanovski wins inside the distance; fight doesn't go to decision
"official prediction vulcanovski via Grand and pound round four round three"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

Volkanovski is the more polished and disciplined fighter with excellent striking defense, movement, and wrestling. Rodriguez has flashy striking and an active guard, but has been broken before. Volkanovski will close distance, land takedowns, and control the fight, likely winning by decision. He is a safe parlay piece.

parlay
"I think just taking his chalky spot throwing it into a parlay is not a bad way to go about it."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

Paul agrees with Cody, stating it's tough to go against Volk at 145. He highlights Volk's ability to win on volume or by mixing in wrestling, and his proven submission defense. He mentions Volk's training with Blood Diamond to mimic Yair. He says he'll likely include Volk in parlays but won't place a serious wager.

Volkanovski by decision (+120), inside distance (+160), over rounds, significant strikes over 135.5, takedowns over 3
"could not back Volk I mean I don't know if I'm gonna back him with my pocket but the guy's just good everywhere"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 3, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

The MMA Guru picks Alexander Volkanovski to win by fourth-round TKO. He acknowledges Rodríguez's dangerous striking but doubts his finishing ability, calling his ground and pound pathetic. He believes Volkanovski's leg kicks and pressure will disrupt Rodríguez's flow, and that Volkanovski's top game in later rounds will be decisive. He notes that Holloway already handled Rodríguez on the ground.

wins by TKO in the fourth round
"I'm gonna go with vulcanov skin round four TKO"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

Zane picks Volkanovski, citing his pressure wrestling and ability to exploit Yair's defensive flaws. He notes that Volkanovski's wrestling will be key to neutralizing Yair's kicking game and that Yair's stamina flags under grappling pressure. Zane expects Volkanovski to take Yair down and grind him out, possibly with a late TKO.

Volkanovski by TKO in round 4 or later at 35%
"I think assuming Volkanovski pressures again, you have to pick him."
WIN vs Josh Emmett
Submission (triangle choke) R2 4:19 · UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski · Feb 12, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Yair Rodríguez 0 62 of 107 57% 98 of 143 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Josh Emmett 0 22 of 52 42% 35 of 72 1 of 4 25% 0 0 3:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Yair Rodríguez 0 26 of 53 49% 32 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Josh Emmett 0 12 of 26 46% 18 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:27
2 Yair Rodríguez 0 36 of 54 66% 66 of 84 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Josh Emmett 0 10 of 26 38% 17 of 34 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:34
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Yair Rodríguez 62 of 107 57% 36 of 76 18 of 22 8 of 9 47 of 87 7 of 9 8 of 11
Josh Emmett 22 of 52 42% 17 of 44 4 of 7 1 of 1 13 of 40 1 of 2 8 of 10
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Yair Rodríguez 26 of 53 49% 14 of 39 7 of 9 5 of 5 21 of 44 1 of 2 4 of 7
Josh Emmett 12 of 26 46% 10 of 24 2 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 15 1 of 2 7 of 9
2 Yair Rodríguez 36 of 54 66% 22 of 37 11 of 13 3 of 4 26 of 43 6 of 7 4 of 4
Josh Emmett 10 of 26 38% 7 of 20 2 of 5 1 of 1 9 of 25 0 of 0 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 5, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Josh Emmett

Angelo picks Josh Emmett, citing his power and wrestling base, though he notes Emmett doesn't use his wrestling often. He believes Emmett's power will be the difference, especially if he can stay close and grind. He acknowledges Yair's creativity and athleticism but thinks Emmett's power and pressure will win. He has a half-unit bet on Emmett at +135.

"Emmett's the pick and I do have a half a unit on him at plus 135"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Feb 6, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Josh Emmett

Big Brady thinks this is a close fight and picks Emmett for the upset. He notes Emmett's power and volume, and thinks Emmett will have the bigger moments. He expects a decision win for Emmett, similar to the Kattar fight, and says the line should be closer.

"I'm gonna pick Josh Emmett here for the upset win I'm gonna take him to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Feb 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Yair Rodríguez

Cody picks Rodríguez but is not confident due to Rodríguez's inconsistency. He notes Rodríguez looked great against Max Holloway with improved cardio and kicking volume, but Emmett has power and wrestling he doesn't use offensively. He thinks Emmett's path is a big shot, but Rodríguez's chin and volume should edge him out. He finds the -175 line unappealing and won't bet it.

"I just think yeah Rodriguez pulls out with it"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 10, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Yair Rodríguez

Connor picks Rodríguez, citing his diverse kicking game and durability as key factors. He notes that Emmett's style is one-dimensional and that Rodríguez can attack from range with kicks, which Emmett struggles to check. Connor also mentions that Emmett's wrestling is not a reliable threat, as he rarely uses it. He believes Rodríguez's toughness and ability to absorb punches will allow him to outwork Emmett over three rounds.

"I also favor yahir. I this was one that kind of threw me because I looked at it and i'm like oh josh emmett's a better fighter than yahir rodriguez... This is not a good fight for josh emmett."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Josh Emmett

Emmett's power punching and forward pressure will be too much for Rodríguez as the fight goes on. Rodríguez slows down in later rounds, as seen against Jeremy Stephens. Emmett has great cardio and defensive wrestling to keep it standing. He will close the distance and land big combinations, likely finishing in the fourth or fifth round. Rodríguez's unorthodox striking may be competitive early, but Emmett's durability and pressure will take over.

"I think Josh Sherman will get closer and closer with those big punches and it's going to continue to demoralize Yaya Rodriguez and I think just slowly but surely Josh Yemen is going to get closer and closer to eventually …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Feb 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Yair Rodríguez

Paul slightly favors Rodríguez on volume, noting Emmett has a power advantage but Rodríguez has better durability. He expects a close competitive fight and thinks the line is accurate, so he won't bet it.

"I'll ever so slightly think that yair Rodriguez edges them out on volume but at minus 160 I mean I think that the books have this one pretty correct"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Yair Rodríguez

The MMA Guru picks Yair Rodríguez over Josh Emmett, citing Emmett's controversial wins and Rodríguez's improved performance against Ortega. He predicts a front kick KO in the first round, noting Rodríguez's chin and Emmett's tendency to get hit. He believes Rodríguez is on a higher level than Emmett.

first round KO via front kick
"I'm gonna go Yaya Rodriguez winning over Josh Emmett"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 10, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Yair Rodríguez

Zane also picks Rodríguez, emphasizing his improved composure and durability. He notes that Emmett's power is a threat, but Rodríguez has never been knocked out and can take shots. Zane highlights that Rodríguez's kicks will be a major problem for Emmett, who has shown vulnerability to low kicks. He also points out that Emmett's wrestling is not a consistent factor, and Rodríguez's range management will frustrate him.

"I also favor yahir. I this was one that kind of threw me because I looked at it and i'm like oh josh emmett's a better fighter than yahir rodriguez... This is not a good fight for josh emmett."
WIN vs Brian Ortega
TKO (shoulder injury) R1 4:11 · UFC on ABC: Ortega vs. Rodriguez · Jul 16, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Yair Rodríguez 0 22 of 35 62% 26 of 39 1 of 5 20% 0 0 2:24
Brian Ortega 0 23 of 46 50% 48 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Yair Rodríguez 0 22 of 35 62% 26 of 39 1 of 5 20% 0 0 2:24
Brian Ortega 0 23 of 46 50% 48 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Yair Rodríguez 22 of 35 62% 18 of 30 3 of 3 1 of 2 15 of 27 7 of 8 0 of 0
Brian Ortega 23 of 46 50% 18 of 41 0 of 0 5 of 5 21 of 44 1 of 1 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Yair Rodríguez 22 of 35 62% 18 of 30 3 of 3 1 of 2 15 of 27 7 of 8 0 of 0
Brian Ortega 23 of 46 50% 18 of 41 0 of 0 5 of 5 21 of 44 1 of 1 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Yair Rodríguez

Angelo picks Yair Rodríguez, citing his dynamic striking and unpredictability. He believes Ortega's poor takedown accuracy (24%) will prevent him from getting the fight to the ground, and that Rodríguez's striking will be too much. He notes Rodríguez looked great against Max Holloway despite the loss, and that he won't have ring rust this time. He placed a small moneyline bet at +137.

small moneyline bet at +137
"i do think yeah rodriguez gets this done i did put a small money line bet on him at plus 137."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 12, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Brian Ortega

Big Brady picks Brian Ortega to win by submission in the second or third round. He notes that Ortega has improved his wrestling significantly, attempting many takedowns in recent fights against top competition like Holloway, Korean Zombie, and Volkanovski. He believes Ortega can take down Rodriguez, who has been taken down frequently in the past, and once on the ground, Ortega's submission game is elite. He acknowledges Rodriguez is the better striker but thinks Ortega's path to victory is through grappling.

submission in round 2 or 3
"i'm going to say ortega does get this fight down to the mat i'm going to say he does lock up something i'll say second or third round submission for brian ortega"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 13, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Brian Ortega

Cody argues that Yair Rodríguez's ground game and wrestling are exploitable, as seen in fights against Frankie Edgar and Jeremy Stephens where he was taken down easily. He notes that Brian Ortega has improved his wrestling, taking down elite fighters like Max Holloway and Alexander Volkanovski. Cody believes Ortega will capitalize on Rodríguez's tendency to fall off-balance and secure a submission or dominant ground control.

Ortega inside the distance, Ortega by submission, under 4.5 rounds, over 2 takedowns for Ortega
"i just got to think ortega is going to capitalize at some point and for that reason he's got to be the main event selection"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 14, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Yair Rodríguez

Daniel Levi picks Yair Rodríguez to win as an underdog, emphasizing that Yair must keep the fight standing and avoid reckless spinning attacks that could lead to takedowns. He notes that Ortega is dangerous on the ground with submissions and has a history of comeback finishes, but believes Yair's discipline and striking can earn a decision. Levi mentions he will likely bet Yair at +155, viewing it as a dog-or-pass situation due to high variance.

moneyline bet at +155; likely decision win; dog-or-pass situation
"i'm gonna go yay rodriguez to defeat brian ortega and get the upset and cash as an underdog"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 13, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Brian Ortega

Paul agrees with Cody that Ortega is the rightful favorite, citing Yair's overrated win over Korean Zombie where he was seconds from losing. He emphasizes that Ortega's takedowns and submission threat will be decisive, and notes the line moving from -150 to -180. Paul suggests under 4.5 rounds and Ortega by submission as prop bets.

Ortega inside the distance, Ortega by submission, under 4.5 rounds, over 2 takedowns for Ortega
"i think ortega's the the line's been moving that way it was like minus 150 minus 160. it's like minus 180 now it's gonna continue to move i think he's the rightful favorite"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 11, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Brian Ortega

The MMA Guru picks Brian Ortega over Yair Rodríguez, citing Ortega's superior jiu-jitsu and ability to capitalize on Rodríguez's defensive habits. He notes that Rodríguez dips his head when pressured, which could lead to a guillotine choke. He also mentions Ortega's improved footwork and takedowns, and believes Rodríguez's power is overrated. He predicts a third-round submission win for Ortega.

predicts third-round submission (guillotine)
"i'm going to call a third round guillotine finish for brian ortega getting it done by submission in a great fight"
LOSS vs Max Holloway
Decision (unanimous) (49–46, 48–47, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez · Nov 13, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Max Holloway 0 230 of 404 56% 251 of 434 3 of 5 60% 1 0 6:49
Yair Rodríguez 0 159 of 352 45% 186 of 383 1 of 5 20% 0 1 1:20
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Max Holloway 0 38 of 57 66% 42 of 62 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:14
Yair Rodríguez 0 37 of 79 46% 38 of 80 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:43
2 Max Holloway 0 58 of 110 52% 59 of 111 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:25
Yair Rodríguez 0 42 of 84 50% 43 of 85 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Max Holloway 0 38 of 66 57% 46 of 81 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:04
Yair Rodríguez 0 20 of 47 42% 20 of 50 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:07
4 Max Holloway 0 43 of 77 55% 49 of 84 1 of 1 100% 1 0 2:06
Yair Rodríguez 0 24 of 64 37% 28 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Max Holloway 0 53 of 94 56% 55 of 96 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:00
Yair Rodríguez 0 36 of 78 46% 57 of 99 0 of 1 0% 0 1 0:30
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Max Holloway 230 of 404 56% 129 of 278 66 of 83 35 of 43 187 of 347 22 of 24 21 of 33
Yair Rodríguez 159 of 352 45% 78 of 247 24 of 41 57 of 64 152 of 343 5 of 5 2 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Max Holloway 38 of 57 66% 16 of 30 8 of 9 14 of 18 38 of 57 0 of 0 0 of 0
Yair Rodríguez 37 of 79 46% 12 of 43 7 of 13 18 of 23 35 of 75 0 of 0 2 of 4
2 Max Holloway 58 of 110 52% 29 of 69 23 of 34 6 of 7 56 of 107 2 of 2 0 of 1
Yair Rodríguez 42 of 84 50% 15 of 54 5 of 7 22 of 23 41 of 83 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Max Holloway 38 of 66 57% 25 of 53 11 of 11 2 of 2 20 of 40 4 of 4 14 of 22
Yair Rodríguez 20 of 47 42% 13 of 38 2 of 4 5 of 5 19 of 46 1 of 1 0 of 0
4 Max Holloway 43 of 77 55% 22 of 52 13 of 16 8 of 9 33 of 65 4 of 5 6 of 7
Yair Rodríguez 24 of 64 37% 17 of 53 3 of 6 4 of 5 24 of 64 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Max Holloway 53 of 94 56% 37 of 74 11 of 13 5 of 7 40 of 78 12 of 13 1 of 3
Yair Rodríguez 36 of 78 46% 21 of 59 7 of 11 8 of 8 33 of 75 3 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Max Holloway

Angelo picks Max Holloway to win inside the distance, having placed a one-unit bet at +110. He notes that Holloway's technical striking should cut through Rodriguez's theatrical style. Angelo thinks Holloway will close the distance and avoid the spin attacks, and that Rodriguez's two-year layoff is a factor.

wins inside the distance at plus 110
"i already did the plus 110 wins inside the distance"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 9, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Max Holloway

Big Brady is confident in Max Holloway, highlighting his insane volume (7.26 significant strikes per minute) and legendary durability (never knocked down). He notes Rodriguez likely needs a KO to win, but Holloway's chin and cardio are elite. Brady expects Holloway to increase volume each round and predicts a fifth-round TKO as damage accumulates.

Holloway by TKO in round 5
"i'm gonna take him to win by like a fifth round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Max Holloway

Cody believes Holloway is a god-tier operator who dominates non-elite opponents. He references Holloway's record 445 significant strikes against Kattar and argues that his losses are only to the best (Volkanovski, Poirier). He expects Holloway to win inside the distance, likely by TKO in the later rounds, and thinks the over 3.5 rounds is a solid play.

Max Holloway wins inside the distance (TKO), over 3.5 rounds
"how could you possibly bet against him now at 701 there's no more meat on the bone"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 11, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Max Holloway

Daniel Levi picks Max Holloway, citing his record-breaking output against Calvin Kattar (447 significant strikes landed) and his status as the clear #2 featherweight. He acknowledges Yair Rodríguez's dynamic striking and finishing ability but believes Holloway's volume and pressure will overwhelm Rodríguez as he fatigues. Levi notes that Rodríguez is a live underdog but ultimately trusts Holloway's proven championship level.

"give me max holloway to come out here and defeat yay rodriguez"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Max Holloway

Jacob picks Max Holloway to win inside the distance, placing a four-unit bet at +110. He believes there are levels to this and that Holloway will wear on Rodriguez with volume and finish him. Jacob thinks Holloway wants to make a statement as a big favorite.

four unit bet on max holloway inside the distance
"i got a four unit bet inside the distance you can get it for plus 110 right now"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Max Holloway

Paul thinks Max Holloway's volume and durability are unmatched. He notes Holloway's record-breaking strike output and believes Rodríguez can't keep the pace. He's priced out at -720 but still picks Holloway to win, possibly by late stoppage or decision.

over 3.5 rounds at -175
"i think max holloway's gonna win i think he wins on volume"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2021 (fight day)
Max Holloway

The Guru picks Max Holloway by third-round TKO (doctor stoppage due to swelling). He expects Rodríguez to have a strong first round with leg kicks and flashy strikes, but Holloway's pressure, body work, and oblique kicks will break Rodríguez down. By the third round, Rodríguez's eye will be swollen shut, forcing a stoppage.

TKO in round 3 via doctor stoppage
"i'm going with max holloway via third round cko but it's going to be at the end of the round where yay doesn't get back up for the fourth"
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Reyes vs. Weidman · Oct 18, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Yair Rodríguez 0 96 of 170 56% 136 of 213 0 of 3 0% 0 0 3:10
Jeremy Stephens 0 50 of 95 52% 99 of 156 3 of 4 75% 0 0 5:35
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Yair Rodríguez 0 39 of 70 55% 39 of 70 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:50
Jeremy Stephens 0 11 of 24 45% 11 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:29
2 Yair Rodríguez 0 41 of 73 56% 62 of 97 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:20
Jeremy Stephens 0 11 of 22 50% 21 of 34 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:33
3 Yair Rodríguez 0 16 of 27 59% 35 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jeremy Stephens 0 28 of 49 57% 67 of 97 2 of 3 66% 0 0 3:33
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Yair Rodríguez 96 of 170 56% 65 of 127 14 of 23 17 of 20 54 of 100 6 of 10 36 of 60
Jeremy Stephens 50 of 95 52% 35 of 76 10 of 10 5 of 9 19 of 51 6 of 11 25 of 33
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Yair Rodríguez 39 of 70 55% 18 of 43 9 of 13 12 of 14 34 of 61 4 of 8 1 of 1
Jeremy Stephens 11 of 24 45% 3 of 14 4 of 4 4 of 6 9 of 21 2 of 3 0 of 0
2 Yair Rodríguez 41 of 73 56% 37 of 67 2 of 4 2 of 2 5 of 13 2 of 2 34 of 58
Jeremy Stephens 11 of 22 50% 9 of 19 2 of 2 0 of 1 1 of 8 4 of 7 6 of 7
3 Yair Rodríguez 16 of 27 59% 10 of 17 3 of 6 3 of 4 15 of 26 0 of 0 1 of 1
Jeremy Stephens 28 of 49 57% 23 of 43 4 of 4 1 of 2 9 of 22 0 of 1 19 of 26
LOSS vs Jeremy Stephens
No Contest (accidental eye poke) R1 0:15 · UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Stephens · Sep 21, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Yair Rodríguez 0 96 of 170 56% 136 of 213 0 of 3 0% 0 0 3:10
Jeremy Stephens 0 50 of 95 52% 99 of 156 3 of 4 75% 0 0 5:35
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Yair Rodríguez 0 39 of 70 55% 39 of 70 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:50
Jeremy Stephens 0 11 of 24 45% 11 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:29
2 Yair Rodríguez 0 41 of 73 56% 62 of 97 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:20
Jeremy Stephens 0 11 of 22 50% 21 of 34 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:33
3 Yair Rodríguez 0 16 of 27 59% 35 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jeremy Stephens 0 28 of 49 57% 67 of 97 2 of 3 66% 0 0 3:33
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Yair Rodríguez 96 of 170 56% 65 of 127 14 of 23 17 of 20 54 of 100 6 of 10 36 of 60
Jeremy Stephens 50 of 95 52% 35 of 76 10 of 10 5 of 9 19 of 51 6 of 11 25 of 33
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Yair Rodríguez 39 of 70 55% 18 of 43 9 of 13 12 of 14 34 of 61 4 of 8 1 of 1
Jeremy Stephens 11 of 24 45% 3 of 14 4 of 4 4 of 6 9 of 21 2 of 3 0 of 0
2 Yair Rodríguez 41 of 73 56% 37 of 67 2 of 4 2 of 2 5 of 13 2 of 2 34 of 58
Jeremy Stephens 11 of 22 50% 9 of 19 2 of 2 0 of 1 1 of 8 4 of 7 6 of 7
3 Yair Rodríguez 16 of 27 59% 10 of 17 3 of 6 3 of 4 15 of 26 0 of 0 1 of 1
Jeremy Stephens 28 of 49 57% 23 of 43 4 of 4 1 of 2 9 of 22 0 of 1 19 of 26
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jeremy Stephens vs. Yair Rodriguez

Round 1
We are now treated to a rematch of the main event from UFC Mexico City in September, which tragically ended due to an eye poke within 15 seconds. Rodriguez (12-2, 1 NC; 7-1, 1 NC UFC) is ready to run it back with Stephens (28-16, 1 NC; 16-15, 1 NC UFC), and tensions are high. Trying to keep a lid on this featherweight tilt is referee Kevin MacDonald. There is no touch of the gloves of any kind, as Rodriguez leaps through the air with a flying head kick that clanks off the dome of Stephens. Stephens wings back some angry punches, and the two trade for a moment with bad intentions. Rodriguez clinches up and pushes Stephens against the cage, and Stephens throws a knee to the body, so Rodriguez retaliates with one of his own. The crowd has started to chant "U.S.A." to root on their home country fighter, and as they break apart, Rodriguez lands a powerful elbows over the top. "El Pantera" throws a wild spinning wheel kick that is nowhere near the mark, but he regains position and throws several heavy kicks on both legs. A few body kicks are finding their home on Stephens' midsection, and they are adding up quick. Stephens fires back with everything he has in the form of right hands, but Rodriguez keeps his distance with effective kicks. Another body kick digs in for Rodriguez, and Stephens has lowered his right hand to defend this specific attack. Stephens ducks down possibly for a takedown, but after a little clinch fighting, the two separate. Rodriguez chooses to crash forward into the clinch again, landing a knee up the middle to get there. As Rodriguez slaps a low kick, Stephens rips a right hand to the body of his opponent. The Mexican pulls off a jumping switch kick that catches Stephens flush, but Stephens walks through it. As Stephens presses forward, Rodriguez drops him with a left jab, but cannot take advantage of his grounded adversary as Stephens returns to his feet. Two more kicks get off from Rodriguez, as Stephens chases him around and motions an obscene gesture to end the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez

Round 2
Rodriguez opens up round two with a spinning kick, but Stephens is able to get up his guard on time. The Mexican fighter then whips a head kick up top, but it is the body kick that follows that does serious damage and makes Stephens buckle over. As Stephens stumbles backwards, Rodriguez swarms him with punches, throwing everything he has into his punches. Stephens defends himself by pursuing a takedown, but Rodriguez is relentless with punches. "Lil' Heathen" is able to survive the assault by going after low takedowns, but Rodriguez walks over it and lands long punches. On his back, Stephens eats wild hammerfists but begins to throw punches while on his back. Rodriguez latches on a brabo choke, and Stephens is trying to roll out of it and survives the submission attempt but is still in grave danger. With pure willpower, Stephens stands back up and unleashes the hardest punches he can possibly throw on Rodriguez. Rodriguez dodges and weaves out of the way of most of these shots, and as Rodriguez catches Stephens to the body again with a kick, Stephens wraps Rodriguez and tries to take him down. Rodriguez rolls through to try to get out of the position but ends up on his back, with Stephens on top raining down punches. El Pantera throws up his legs to search for a triangle choke, and Stephens is not out of the woods yet. In more of a leg scissor choke than a triangle, Stephens breaks the posture and grinds his elbow on his opponent's face as Rodriguez is warned for grabbing the cage. Rodriguez gradually stands up, and Stephens punishes him with a salvo of punches. The Mexican eats several more shots as he finally gets to his feet, and whips a body kick out that backs away Stephens as this crazy round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez

Round 3
Stephens comes out threatening with big shots, and as Rodriguez throws a kick out to back him off, he catches Stephens in the groin with a kick. Stephens calls the ref off so that he can charge at Rodriguez, and he slings looping shots that score on Rodriguez and get the crowd amped up. Rodriguez tries to keep his distance with leg kicks, and Stephens catches him on the end of a right hand that Rodriguez wears well. Suddenly, Stephens drops for a double leg takedown and gets Rodriguez down, and although Rodriguez gets back up, Stephens makes sure to score with several punches on his way up. The two separate, but not for long, as Stephens rushes in to secure another takedown and lands in Rodriguez' guard. Rodriguez attempts to utilize a rubber guard to get hold of Stephens' neck, but Stephens pushes the leg off and tries to get his ground-and-pound going. It is quite unfortunate that this fight is only three rounds instead of five, as Stephens sits on top in half guard while throwing punches from above. Stephens continues to mount offense on top in the form of numerous left hands, and the American then decides to drop down elbows that get heavier the more he throws. A huge left hand from Stephens scores as he stands up and dives down to land it, and after some more thudding strikes, the fight is now over. In a display of great sportsmanship, the two embrace, both thrilled with their performances.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Stephens (29-28 Rodriguez)
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Stephens (29-28 Rodriguez)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-8 Stephens (28-28 Draw)

The Official Result
Yair Rodriguez def. Jeremy Stephens via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Josh Emmett - Fight History
LOSS vs Kevin Vallejos
KO R1 3:33 · UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · Mar 14, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Josh Emmett 0 3 of 12 25% 3 of 12 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Kevin Vallejos 2 36 of 55 65% 43 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:38
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Josh Emmett 0 3 of 12 25% 3 of 12 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Kevin Vallejos 2 36 of 55 65% 43 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:38
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Josh Emmett 3 of 12 25% 2 of 11 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kevin Vallejos 36 of 55 65% 30 of 49 4 of 4 2 of 2 12 of 21 10 of 14 14 of 20
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Josh Emmett 3 of 12 25% 2 of 11 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kevin Vallejos 36 of 55 65% 30 of 49 4 of 4 2 of 2 12 of 21 10 of 14 14 of 20
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Kevin Vallejos

Angelo sees this as a setup fight designed to boost Kevin Vallejos. He notes that Josh Emmett is an aging fighter who no longer wrestles and relies on knockout power, but is too old and slow to keep up with Vallejos's speed and power. He believes Vallejos will win straightforwardly, possibly by knockout, and that Emmett's wrestling is no longer a factor.

"Kevin lights up Josh here. Kevin is then immediately in the rankings."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Kevin Vallejos

Big Brady picks Kevin Vallejos to win by dominant decision. He is very worried about Josh Emmett's age (41) and the damage he took in the Ilia Topuria fight. He believes Vallejos is younger, hungrier, and will destroy Emmett on the feet over five rounds. He sees Emmett's only path as a lucky catch, but Vallejos has a good chin.

"give me Kevin Vallejos and Kevin Vallejos to win by very dominant decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 11, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Kevin Vallejos

Cody picks Kevin Vallejos based on the 17-year age gap, speed advantage, and superior jab. He notes Emmett's power is his only win condition, but Vallejos has durability and can outwork him. He acknowledges the price is too rich for a parlay anchor but expects Vallejos to win.

"it feels like Kevin Velahos is the uh the clear pick here. He's 17 years younger than Josh Emmen, and that kind of is the big difference maker for me."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Mar 12, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Kevin Vallejos

Connor picks Vallejos, banking on his durability. He believes Vallejos will get plugged by Emmett's power but can take the shots, as evidenced by his fight with John Silva. He thinks Vallejos can build a lead over five rounds with a steady work rate.

Odds: Vallejos opened at -500, currently -550; Emmett opened at +375, currently +420. Connor comments that the odds are pretty goddamn wide.
"I'm gonna bank on his durability. And as provided he's durable enough, he should have this one in the bag."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Kevin Vallejos

James picks Kevin Vallejos to win, citing his boxing advantage, better technique, and ability to break Emmett down with calf kicks. He notes Emmett's durability and experience in five-round fights but believes Vallejos will win a decision. He mentions that Vallejos is improving and has a skill advantage on the feet, though he cautions about Vallejos' unproven cardio over five rounds.

"I am going to say that Kevin Vallejo does win this fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Mar 10, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Kevin Vallejos

The host picks Vallejos to win by decision but is hesitant due to the steep odds. He expects Vallejos to be more active and land more damage over five rounds, but acknowledges Emmett's durability and power make him a live dog. He likes the over 3.5 rounds and notes that Emmett's experience could make it competitive. He suggests Emmett at +475 has value.

over 3.5 rounds (approx -105)
"I'll still lean with Vallejo here. I think he ends up being a little bit more active, landing maybe a little bit more damage... but plus 475 on Josham, it seems too good to pass up."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 11, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Josh Emmett

Paul agrees Vallejos is talented but can't pull the trigger at -550. He would take a small shot on Emmett as a hedge, believing Emmett's durability and experience could cause problems over five rounds. He expects Vallejos to win 75% of the time but the price is too steep.

"If I was forced to make a bet right now, I'd probably take a small shot on EMTT um and pray."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2026 (fight day)
Kevin Vallejos

The Guru picks Kevin Vallejos, calling him the next Ilia Topuria. He believes Vallejos will weather Emmett's early power, use his shoulder roll and guard, and then piece together combinations to the body and head for a TKO in the second or third round. He notes Emmett is diminished and weak to the body.

Prediction: second or third round TKO
"We are going to destroy Josh Emmett... second or third round TKO."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Mar 12, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Kevin Vallejos

Zane picks Vallejos based on durability and pace. He notes that Vallejos has a hell of a chin and can dictate a better pace, while Emmett is 41 and choosy. However, he acknowledges it's not clear cut and Emmett could have a good night.

Odds: Vallejos opened at -500, currently -550; Emmett opened at +375, currently +420. Zane comments that the odds are pretty goddamn wide considering Emmett's one-punch power.
"You have to pick Vallejos at this point. Yeah, I think I agree. It's not clear cut, though. It really isn't."
LOSS vs Youssef Zalal
Submission R1 1:38 · UFC 320 · Oct 04, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Josh Emmett 0 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:16
Youssef Zalal 0 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:48
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Josh Emmett 0 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:16
Youssef Zalal 0 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:48
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Josh Emmett 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
Youssef Zalal 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Josh Emmett 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
Youssef Zalal 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Josh Emmett vs. Youssef Zalal
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Zalal (-440), Emmett (+340)

Round 1
The UFC knew exactly what it was doing when it paired brick-fisted Emmett (19-5, 10-5 UFC) with whirling dervish Zalal (17-5-1, 7-3-1 UFC), and a passing of the torch moment may come when the dust settles. While Emmett may have passed the 40-year-old threshold, the last thing to go is the power. Referee Jason Herzog dons his proverbial hard hat as the two featherweight contenders touch ‘em up.
Zalal approaches with his hands wide by his sides, and his leg ready to fly. Zalal lands a quick kick and darts out of the way when Emmett bears down on him. Zalal whiffs on a front kick, and he shoots for a double when Emmett is about to strike. Zalal succeeds in grounding the Team Alpha Male-trained athlete with ease, and he advances to three-quarter mount while clinging to an arm-triangle setup. Emmett muscles his man over, and Zalal isolates his foe’s arm in pursuit of an armbar. Emmett keeps his weight pressed down on top, and he starts stepping over to try to get out of the sub. With Emmett’s arms both trapped, he is stunned and has to call out “tap tap tap” in order to signal that he is done and does not want to get his limb snapped. The crowd is silenced as Herzog steps in, not entirely knowing what has just happened. Fans start booing until they realize that Emmett verbally surrendered, and then they chill out because Zalal just notched an extremely impressive victory over a perennial contender in under two minutes. In victory, Zalal declares that he will be champion one day.

The Official Result
Youssef Zalal def. Josh Emmett R1 1:38 via Submission (Armbar)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 28, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Youssef Zalal

Angelo picks Youssef Zalal, citing his ability to be an outside distance striker or a full-blown grappler. He notes Zalal's high fight IQ and low strikes absorbed per minute. He acknowledges Josh Emmett's power and experience but thinks Zalal's versatility and youth will be key. He is surprised Zalal is almost a 4-to-1 favorite and would set the line at -170.

"I'm going to pick Ysef Zal here. Ysef's ability to be an outside distance striker or a full-blown grappler is going to suit him well here."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Youssef Zalal

Big Brady sees this as an easy win for Zalal, who is in his prime at 29, while Emmett is 40 and fighting at featherweight. He believes Zalal can use his speed and footwork to avoid Emmett's power and mix in takedowns. He predicts Zalal by decision.

"Give me Zo use allow by decision."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Youssef Zalal

Connor picks Zalal, agreeing that Zalal's movement and ability to fight at range will give Emmett problems. He notes that Emmett's only major improvement was learning to throw punches at two speeds, but he still lacks dexterity and cage-cutting skills. Connor also mentions that Zalal's performance against Calvin Katter showed he can neutralize opponents, though he cautions that Emmett's power is a constant threat.

"Yeah, I agree. Yeah, I'm picking Zolol as well."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2025 (fight day)
Youssef Zalal

Zalal's style is expected to be too difficult for Emmett to track. Emmett may land some big shots, but Zalal should flow with them and get off his own offense, winning a boring decision.

"I believe Zalal's style will be a little bit too difficult for Emmett to get a track on him... I think that will lead to Zalal winning a pretty boring decision."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Youssef Zalal

The MMA Guru picks Youssef Zalal, believing his counter-striking and movement will frustrate Josh Emmett. He notes Emmett's predictable overhands and lack of grappling. He predicts a late TKO via knee up the middle.

TKO win
"I'm going to go with Youssef Zalal to get this one done. And I'm going to say late rounds TKO, knee up the middle."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Youssef Zalal

Zane picks Zalal because he believes Zalal can frustrate Emmett with movement and range control, similar to how Laron Murphy and Yair Rodriguez did. He notes that Emmett lacks a range game and struggles when opponents refuse to engage in the pocket. Zane also points out that Zalal is a dangerous striker with good combinations and that Emmett's limited offensive toolkit makes him vulnerable to a neutralizing game plan.

"I just think uses the law can go out there and have that cater fight. And yeah, he might be in more danger than he was against cater in those bad positions, but he might be just as able to …"
LOSS vs Lerone Murphy
Decision (unanimous) R5 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Emmett vs. Murphy · Apr 05, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Josh Emmett 0 41 of 143 28% 44 of 149 4 of 11 36% 0 0 3:39
Lerone Murphy 0 84 of 157 53% 117 of 195 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Josh Emmett 0 10 of 28 35% 10 of 28 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:05
Lerone Murphy 0 10 of 24 41% 11 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Josh Emmett 0 2 of 8 25% 3 of 11 2 of 5 40% 0 0 1:50
Lerone Murphy 0 13 of 21 61% 26 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
3 Josh Emmett 0 5 of 25 20% 7 of 28 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:01
Lerone Murphy 0 21 of 36 58% 33 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Josh Emmett 0 13 of 38 34% 13 of 38 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:28
Lerone Murphy 0 22 of 41 53% 26 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Josh Emmett 0 11 of 44 25% 11 of 44 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:15
Lerone Murphy 0 18 of 35 51% 21 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Josh Emmett 41 of 143 28% 29 of 124 6 of 11 6 of 8 40 of 133 1 of 7 0 of 3
Lerone Murphy 84 of 157 53% 37 of 90 17 of 30 30 of 37 75 of 148 9 of 9 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Josh Emmett 10 of 28 35% 6 of 23 3 of 4 1 of 1 10 of 26 0 of 1 0 of 1
Lerone Murphy 10 of 24 41% 5 of 16 3 of 5 2 of 3 10 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Josh Emmett 2 of 8 25% 1 of 7 0 of 0 1 of 1 2 of 6 0 of 1 0 of 1
Lerone Murphy 13 of 21 61% 2 of 7 6 of 9 5 of 5 9 of 17 4 of 4 0 of 0
3 Josh Emmett 5 of 25 20% 3 of 19 2 of 4 0 of 2 5 of 22 0 of 2 0 of 1
Lerone Murphy 21 of 36 58% 11 of 24 3 of 4 7 of 8 16 of 31 5 of 5 0 of 0
4 Josh Emmett 13 of 38 34% 9 of 34 1 of 1 3 of 3 12 of 37 1 of 1 0 of 0
Lerone Murphy 22 of 41 53% 9 of 22 4 of 7 9 of 12 22 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Josh Emmett 11 of 44 25% 10 of 41 0 of 2 1 of 1 11 of 42 0 of 2 0 of 0
Lerone Murphy 18 of 35 51% 10 of 21 1 of 5 7 of 9 18 of 35 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 30, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Angelo picks Lerone Murphy as the overall better fighter, more technical and cleaner. He notes Murphy moves well, has power, and scrambles well after takedowns. He acknowledges Josh Emmett has power and wrestling but doesn't use his wrestling often. Angelo is concerned about Murphy being dropped by Dan Ige but believes Murphy can fight a perfect fight for 25 minutes. He picks Murphy despite the steep odds.

"I am on the lon side 3 to1 favorite again these odds start to seem a little crazy what could go wrong with an undefeated guy fighting an aging vet."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 1, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Big Brady picks Lerone Murphy, noting his career-best performance against Edson Barboza and 25-minute cardio. He believes Josh Emmett, at 40 and on a layoff, is unlikely to win three rounds and will need an early KO. He expects Murphy to outwork Emmett and win a decision.

"I'm going to go with Murphy I'm going to go Murphy to win this fight by decision"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Josh Emmett

Connor picks Emmett, citing Murphy's history of giving opponents chances to land huge shots and his tendency to adjust mid-fight rather than prepare. He compares Emmett to Dan Henderson for his simple, powerful game and notes that Murphy's worst round is always the first, where he often has no plan. Connor trusts that Emmett's power and persistence will catch Murphy, especially given Murphy's vulnerability to being hurt.

Emmett opened +216, now +246. Connor implies the line is reasonable given Emmett's danger.
"I'm gonna stick with the Emmett pick. I understand that perfectly. Yeah, it should be a very winnable fight for LaRone Murphy, but I have seen him in too many fights give opponents the chance to just land huge on …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Murphy is the better fighter and closer to his prime. He will start to pull away in the third and fourth rounds, mixing up his clinch game, wrestling, and technical striking to evade Emmett's power, winning on the scorecards.

decision
"I believe Murphy is the better fighter here and way closer to his Prime and I think that will see Murphy really start to pull away probably in the third and fourth rounds mixing up his clinch game his wrestling …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

The Guru picks Lerone Murphy after changing his mind upon rewatching Emmett fights. He argues Murphy's consistent decision wins show he is reliably better, while Emmett relies on KO power that is sporadic. He notes Emmett's age (40), long layoff, and accumulated damage, and believes Murphy's range, volume, and game-planning will allow him to outwork Emmett over five rounds. He predicts a decision win or a late finish.

Lerone Murphy by decision or finish in rounds 3-5
"I'm going to go with Lrone Murphy. I think he'll grapple as the fight goes on. And Emtt's 40 years old and he's taken a lot of damage."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Zane picks Murphy because he sees many ways for Murphy to win—using range, kicks, and avoiding overextension—while Emmett's path is narrow: a single big shot. He notes Murphy's adaptability and recovery, but acknowledges his tendency to start slow and make mistakes, which could be fatal against Emmett's power. Zane believes Murphy can avoid the one mistake that costs him the fight, given Emmett's predictable offense.

Murphy opened at -264, now -303; Emmett opened +216, now +246. Zane notes the line is not unreasonable but shouldn't get much wider.
"I'm gonna pick LaRone Murphy because I think there are a myriad of ways to beat Josh Emmett... There's only one loss one type of loss to avoid."
KO (punch) R1 1:57 · UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · Dec 16, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Josh Emmett 1 2 of 10 20% 2 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Bryce Mitchell 0 0 of 3 0% 0 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Josh Emmett 1 2 of 10 20% 2 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Bryce Mitchell 0 0 of 3 0% 0 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Josh Emmett 2 of 10 20% 1 of 4 1 of 5 0 of 1 2 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Bryce Mitchell 0 of 3 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Josh Emmett 2 of 10 20% 1 of 4 1 of 5 0 of 1 2 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Bryce Mitchell 0 of 3 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Josh Emmett vs. Bryce Mitchell
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Mitchell (-225), Emmett (+185)

Round 1
On short notice, this featherweight pairing turned from a striker’s delight to a classic striker vs. grappler affair. Ready to throw hands aplenty will be Emmett (18-4, 9-4 UFC), while late replacement and grappling ace Mitchell (16-1, 7-1 UFC) wishes to shut that all down. 2023 Referee of the Year Herb Dean will be the third man in the Octagon, and the fighters are glad to be fighting tonight but do not express it with a glove touch. Mitchell starts off with pressure, but Emmett reaches out with a right hand to the body. Mitchell backs off and aims a low kick, and Emmett evades it and responds in kind. The fighters keep a wide berth from one another, and Emmett eventually moves forward and aims another right to the midsection. Emmett gets off a left hand and tries to follow it with a huge right hook, but Mitchell is out of the way before the latter connects. With malice in his eyes, Emmett unloads a bomb of a right hand that detonates flush on Mitchell’s chin. Mitchell goes down on his side in a heap, and he is completely out. Emmett lets out a guttural victory scream as Dean grabs him from behind to make sure that Emmett will not pursue a follow-up shot. As Dean lets go, he tends to the fallen Mitchell, who begins convulsing in unconsciousness. Medical staff members rush into the cage when alerted to Mitchell’s scary condition, as Mitchell goes into a full-blown grand mal seizure. After some time, Mitchell recovers and learns that he was starched. He tries to get back to his feet, but he cannot stand on his own. Mitchell is helped out of the cage, in good spirits despite just suffering a crushing defeat, and when Emmett feels comfortable celebrating, he does so with his corner of Team Alpha Male—which went 3-0 tonight, after Fili, Garbrandt and Emmett all recorded knockout wins. Hello, "Knockout of the Year"? You have a new contender calling.

The Official Result
Josh Emmett def. Bryce Mitchell R1 1:57 via KO (Punch)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Dec 10, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Bryce Mitchell

Angelo picks Bryce Mitchell, trusting his wrestling to overcome Josh Emmett's power. He notes that Emmett is older and has abandoned wrestling for knockouts, while Mitchell is a relentless grappler. He has a half-unit bet on Mitchell at -140.

Half unit bet at -140; fight goes full 15 minutes
"Bryce Mitchell is the pick I got that bet on him and I trust him to wrestle"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 13, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Josh Emmett

Big Brady picks Josh Emmett as an underdog, citing concerns about Bryce Mitchell's short notice and reliance on relentless wrestling. He notes Emmett's wrestling background and that no one has consistently taken him down and controlled him. Brady highlights Emmett's power (7 consecutive fights with a knockdown) and believes if Mitchell can't get takedowns, he'll get knocked out. He predicts a damage-based decision or knockout for Emmett.

"I lean Josh EMT here I don't know whether he does win by knockout I could see like a damage based decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 14, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Bryce Mitchell

Cody picks Mitchell, arguing that Mitchell's wrestling and physical strength will be too much for Emmett. He notes that Emmett has poor takedown defense and that Mitchell will grind on him, break him down, and secure a finish. Cody also points out that Emmett is 38 and coming off a brutal beating from Ilia Topuria, while Mitchell is a contender on the rise. He expects Mitchell to win inside the distance.

Bryce Mitchell inside the distance
"Bryce Mitchell ends up just is getting the takedowns... grinds on him and secure the victory inside the distance"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Bryce Mitchell

Lucrative James picks Bryce Mitchell, believing he will get takedowns and work from top. He notes that Josh Emmett gets taken down often and gives up his back, and that Emmett is slowing down. He thinks Mitchell's tenacity and youth (29) will be key, and that even on the feet Mitchell can hold his own. He sees this as a spot where the favorite is justified, unlike other fights on the card.

"I think that Bryce Mitchell gets a takedown and I think that Bryce Mitchell does work from top."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Bryce Mitchell

The host believes Mitchell's smothering grappling will be too much for Emmett, who is 38 and coming off a brutal loss to Topuria. He notes that Mitchell can close the distance, initiate the clinch, and bully Emmett to the mat, where he can grind out a decision or find a submission. He acknowledges Emmett's power but thinks Mitchell's durability and ability to avoid clean shots will allow him to implement his game plan. He predicts Mitchell by decision.

Mitchell by decision
"I think Mitchell decided to accept this fight on short notice because he saw the openings that he could Implement to try to get his hand raised here so give me Bryce Mitchell and Bryce Mitchell by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Dec 14, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Josh Emmett

Paul picks Emmett at +200, questioning why Mitchell is such a big favorite. He notes that Emmett has power and can make it a tough night for Mitchell if the fight stays standing. He acknowledges Emmett's takedown defense is a concern (46%) but believes Emmett's explosiveness and power give him a chance. Paul is not fully confident but sees value at the underdog price.

"my official pick is Josh EMT at plus 200"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Josh Emmett

The Guru picks Josh Emmett over Bryce Mitchell, noting Emmett's power, wrestling background, and full camp (originally preparing for Giga Chikadze). He believes Mitchell's takedowns won't succeed due to Emmett's short, stocky build and takedown defense, and that Mitchell will be vulnerable on the feet. He predicts a TKO win for Emmett.

Emmett by TKO
"I'm going to go Josh EMT getting it done over Bryce Mitchell by TKO... I can just see Bryce Mitchell not getting his takedowns in the first and then being a bit weird looking on the feet"
LOSS vs Ilia Topuria
Decision (unanimous) (50–44, 50–42, 49–45) R5 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Emmett vs. Topuria · Jun 24, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ilia Topuria 0 87 of 305 28% 89 of 309 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Josh Emmett 1 152 of 344 44% 171 of 365 3 of 3 100% 0 0 3:35
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ilia Topuria 0 14 of 68 20% 14 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Josh Emmett 0 21 of 56 37% 21 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Ilia Topuria 0 19 of 68 27% 19 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Josh Emmett 0 30 of 75 40% 30 of 75 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
3 Ilia Topuria 0 31 of 81 38% 31 of 81 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Josh Emmett 0 37 of 91 40% 37 of 91 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Ilia Topuria 0 13 of 52 25% 15 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Josh Emmett 1 56 of 100 56% 62 of 107 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:58
5 Ilia Topuria 0 10 of 36 27% 10 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Josh Emmett 0 8 of 22 36% 21 of 36 3 of 3 100% 0 0 2:33
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ilia Topuria 87 of 305 28% 43 of 232 26 of 53 18 of 20 87 of 305 0 of 0 0 of 0
Josh Emmett 152 of 344 44% 124 of 302 9 of 16 19 of 26 114 of 289 2 of 2 36 of 53
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ilia Topuria 14 of 68 20% 8 of 58 4 of 8 2 of 2 14 of 68 0 of 0 0 of 0
Josh Emmett 21 of 56 37% 14 of 47 4 of 5 3 of 4 21 of 56 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Ilia Topuria 19 of 68 27% 8 of 47 6 of 15 5 of 6 19 of 68 0 of 0 0 of 0
Josh Emmett 30 of 75 40% 25 of 66 0 of 0 5 of 9 25 of 68 0 of 0 5 of 7
3 Ilia Topuria 31 of 81 38% 16 of 60 7 of 12 8 of 9 31 of 81 0 of 0 0 of 0
Josh Emmett 37 of 91 40% 30 of 80 3 of 5 4 of 6 37 of 91 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Ilia Topuria 13 of 52 25% 6 of 39 6 of 12 1 of 1 13 of 52 0 of 0 0 of 0
Josh Emmett 56 of 100 56% 50 of 90 2 of 6 4 of 4 26 of 55 2 of 2 28 of 43
5 Ilia Topuria 10 of 36 27% 5 of 28 3 of 6 2 of 2 10 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
Josh Emmett 8 of 22 36% 5 of 19 0 of 0 3 of 3 5 of 19 0 of 0 3 of 3
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Josh Emmett vs. Ilia Topuria
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Topuria (-320), Emmett (+265)

Round 1
We have reached the main event after a fairly lengthy midday event. It should be a treat that presents a great deal of excitement, giving the Jacksonville fans one last brawl. Coming off an unsuccessful shot at the interim strap, Emmett (18-3, 9-3 UFC) wants to show at 38 he is not done yet. On the other side of the equation, 12 years Emmett’s junior, Topuria (13-0, 5-0 UFC) is undefeated and fast on the rise with violence in spades. Chins will almost certainly be tested before it is all said and done, and referee Marc Goddard receives the honor of officiating this hopefully thrilling headliner. There is nothing but respect between the two, as they tap their gloves together before the hostilities commence. Emmett blitzes forward right out of the gate, making the Georgian retreat early as Emmett bears down on him. Topuria is no worse for wear, and Emmett targets the body and head with surges of punches. Emmett circles around his relatively stationary adversary, and he stumbles as he drops low. Emmett gets up and goes back to potshotting Topuria with power range punches. Topuria sits down on a right hand counter, giving Emmett a little pause to advance recklessly. The two start trading furiously from up close, and Topuria backs off and targets the body. Emmett takes a solid right hand on the jaw, and he keeps moving and swaying. Topuria reaches him with an uppercut to the midsection, and he leans back from a swatting combo coming back at him. They trade left hooks, and Topuria flicks out several jabs to mark up Emmett’s face. Emmett throws so hard he nearly falls over, putting everything he has into his punches. Topuria’s guard is able to protect him from the worst of the blows, and he sees the wide looping right hands from afar. Topuria lands a low kick and keeps active with a jab, and he absorbs a flush right hand on the cheek. Topuria drills a kick that makes Emmett turn around, and he intercepts an advancing Emmett with another calf kick and a jab. A cut on the corner of Emmett’s eye opens up, and Emmett ignores it and throws caution to the wins with a chopping kick and an overhand right. Topuria jabs his way into an exchange, and Emmett is right there to stand and bang. Emmett reaches out with a right hand, and he clips Topuria with a check left hook while Topuria is backing away. Topuria closes in and wings two punches, and the tense round comes to a close.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Topuria
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Topuria
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Topuria

Round 2
The second round opens with a glove touch, and the swelling around Emmett’s left eye has grown. Emmett strikes first with a leg kick, and he comes up just short with two looping hooks. Topuria jabs effectively to stifle Emmett’s best offense, and Emmett responds with multiple body shots. Topuria chops at the lead wheel and pokes out with a jab, which reminds Emmett that he can also jab as well. Emmett lunges with a few punches, and the low kick at the end of his strikes connects. Topuria pulls back on a few big strikes, and Emmett closes in and pops him with a left hook. Topuria does not let him off the hook, landing with his own blow. Emmett lumps up the calf with a kick, and he charges in with four punches. Topuria counters him cleanly with a single right hand to make Emmett think twice, and he settles down with a hard low kick. Topuria beats Emmett to the punch with a right hook, and his speed is giving Emmett fits thus far. Emmett checks a low kick and wings a right hand that glances off the side. Topuria is frequently moving when Emmett loads up on his big right hook, and this lets very few of them land flush. The jabs from Topuria have bloodied up Emmett’s nose as well, and it snaps out and is met with a left hook on the way in. Topuria chains a few punches together and backs off when Emmett bullrushes him. Emmett slips on the way in, and Topuria takes advantage of this by smashing him in the face with a right hand. Emmett gets his back against the ropes, and he swings with bad intentions and drops Topuria. The Spanish/Georgian fighter scampers back to his feet and is not overly concerned, and he returns to his tactic of jabs and low kicks. Emmett brushes his right hand over the hair, and he checks a kick on the way back. Topuria slides out of the way of a big shot from Emmett, and he cracks the Californian with a right hand. Emmett drops to his hands, and Topuria rushes down and starts smacking him upside the head. Topuria lets go when Emmett rears back with a right hand, and the second frame wraps.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Topuria
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Topuria
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Topuria

Round 3
The two reach the third round and begin trading, and Topuria slides back and kicks the lead calf of Emmett. Emmett staggers from the damage, and he gathers his thoughts and wings an overhand right. Topuria comes at him throwing two big shots, and Emmett goes high with a kick. Emmett slams his shin on the calf twice, and he jabs Topuria when Topuria closes the distance. Emmett chips with another kick and misses with an overhand right, and Topuria just comes up short with his own counter. As Emmett ducks down to throw him off, Topuria follows him. Emmett catches Topuria with a left hook, and Topuria snipes him with a left hook back and connects with a leg kick. The featherweights crash together with fierce fists, and Emmett tags Topuria with a few huge punches. Topuria gives it right back, and he slashes open a cut on the cheek while also advancing Emmett’s swelling. Emmett stings Topuria with a right hand on the temple, and they clack their shins together with simultaneous kicks. Emmett digs a left to the body, and he is intercepted with a short right hand. Topuria knocks his man back with a jab, and he eats a clean right hand without batting an eye. Topuria measures Emmett with accurate jabs and follow-up punches, while Emmett meets him in the middle and bangs. Emmett walks through a leg kick, and they proceed to swing for the fences. Topuria snaps his jab out brilliantly, and Emmett’s left eye is almost closed. Emmett uses his own jab to decent effect, but its volume is nowhere near the unbeaten fighter’s. Topuria strings a few punches together to bust Emmett’s face up badly, and the side of it is covered in red. Emmett ducks a few punches to counter, and he pops Topuria in the chops with a left hook. Emmett beats Topuria to the punch with a right hand, and he waves Topuria on to brawl with him. Emmett overswings with his punches, and he targets the body and lead calf as the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Emmett
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Topuria
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Emmett

Round 4
We have ourselves a fight as the two reach the championship rounds, and they clap hands to get started. Emmett wades into the fray, landing at the end of a few punches as Topuria’s movement has slowed to a small degree. Emmett blitzes, and Topuria hops out of the way to evade most of the strikes. Topuria sticks out a jab, and he pins a one-two on the chin when Emmett chops at his calf. Topuria flicks out a few more jabs, and Emmett goes over the top with a big right. Topuria continues to work his jab, and Emmett aims a punch to the chest and one to the ribs. Topuria nails his foe with a leg kick, and Emmett has to hop back for a second to get his bearings. Emmett reaches out with a right hook, but Topuria is able to lean back and zip out a few jabs and a one-two. Emmett looks for a left to the body, and he gets his calf kicked and he squats down after it lands hard. Emmett rushes with looping shots that Topuria is able to avoid without problems, and when that one fails, he blitzes a second time. The body shot from Emmett does score, and Topuria’s jab snaps Emmet’s head back. Topuria times a big right hand to counter with one of his own, and he spins away before Emmett can reach him. Two punches from Topuria knock Emmett off-balance, and he learns that he is in trouble before his body does. Emmett falls to the ground, and Topuria beats on him in an effort to stop the fight. Emmett’s toughness is off the charts, as he survives the barrage of unanswered punches and gets back to his feet. Emmett climbs up with the fence behind him and wings power punches, but Topuria is faster and more accurate. A vicious leg kick and second flurry from “El Matador” knocks Emmett of his feet again, and he jumps straight into mount and tries to finish the job with his fists. Topuria drops down punches and hammerfists, and Emmett turns to his stomach and manages to survive to the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Topuria
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Topuria
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Topuria

Round 5
Between rounds, Goddard calls in the doctor to check on the swelling and damage of Emmett’s face. Emmett is able to pass the vision tests, and he informs Goddard he is more than willing to keep fighting despite his disfigurement. The two featherweights touch ‘em up one final time to begin the last round, and Emmett is a man possessed. Emmett charges with everything he has, and he rocks Topuria with a huge right hand. Topuria bounces off the fencing several times, in a surprisingly bad way, and Emmett gives chase swinging bombs. Emmett checks a kick, and Topuria gets back to his rhythm of jabs and calf kicks. Emmett hops around to get some feeling back in his leg, and he kicks with his other one. Emmett walks through a jab to lob a left hook, and he is throwing haymakers that Topuria is barely dodging. Emmett whiffs on a huge left hand, and he kicks the calf while Topuria is jabbing him. Emmett strikes the body and fires off massive hooks, and Topuria sees them coming and blocks them. Emmett reaches Topuria with a shovel left hook, and Topuria keeps moving so that he does not present as a stationary target. Emmett goes to the body with a left and bring a right over the top, and he swings with a subsequent left that opens him up to a takedown attempt. Topuria lands in half guard from his successful double, and Emmett turns to his side and works to a knee. Emmett wipes at his badly swollen eye as Topuria holds on from behind, although he cannot explode back up to his feet. Topuria clings to Emmett as precious seconds tick off the clock, and he manages to hit a mat return. Emmett scrambles, and the two roll around until Topuria follows to get the back again. Emmett works his way up, thanks in part to a fence grab, and Topuria wrenches him right back down. Topuria takes the back and flattens Emmett out for a moment, but Emmett turns to his side once more as he uses all of his last remaining energy to get up. Topuria punches Emmett on the side of the head a few more times for good measure, and Emmett muscles his way to his feet right at the sound of the final bell. These two featherweights have gone the distance after five violent rounds, and the stock of the younger Topuria is going to climb significantly after this excellent showing. Topuria will advance himself to a clean 14-0 as a pro, with two decision wins on his ledger now. In victory, “El Matador” declares himself as “the next guy” for the featherweight belt, and he wants to take on Alexander Volkanovski to become the first one to beat him at this weight class. There is little time to savor this, as the UFC train will keep on rolling. The next show will be in the UFC Apex in a week, and we will be here for it. We hope you are too.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Topuria (49-45 Topuria)
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Topuria (50-45 Topuria)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Topuria (49-46 Topuria)

The Official Result
Ilia Topuria def. Josh Emmett via Unanimous Decision (50-44, 50-42, 49-45)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 18, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Ilia Topuria

Angelo picks Ilia Topuria, citing his phenomenal wrestling, speed, power, and ability to adjust on the fly. He notes Topuria is the better wrestler, faster, and hits just as hard as Emmett. He acknowledges Emmett has insane power and Topuria has been rocked before, but outside of a lucky punch, Emmett won't have much to offer. He says the 3-to-1 odds seem correct.

"Ilya should absolutely work Josh Eman here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Ilia Topuria

Big Brady picks Ilia Topuria, believing he should win but notes the line is wide. He emphasizes Topuria's elite grappling and BJJ black belt, which he should use to take Emmett down. He has concerns about Topuria's cardio if the fight goes deep and his tendency to get hit, as seen against Jai Herbert. He predicts a first-round submission, but acknowledges a knockout is possible. He notes Emmett's power and age (38) as factors.

first round sub
"I'm gonna take the 40 to win this fight by first round sub"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Jun 21, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Ilia Topuria

Cody picks Topuria but with hesitation, citing concerns about Topuria's cardio in a five-round fight and the step up in competition. He notes Emmett's power and experience, and suggests this fight is better for live betting. He ultimately sides with Topuria due to youth and skills but is wary of the hype.

Live betting recommended; considers taking Emmett if Topuria drops early.
"I actually kind of think I like this one better from a live betting standpoint."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Ilia Topuria

Connor picks Topuria, focusing on the question of whether Topuria can fight outside the pocket and if Emmett can keep him out. He argues that Emmett is a potshotter who struggles when opponents force prolonged exchanges, as seen against Yair Rodriguez. Connor believes Topuria's boxing defense and counter-punching are reliable against Emmett's headhunting, but notes the massive caveat that Emmett's power is a constant threat, especially given Topuria's history of being hurt.

Odds too wide; Topuria -321 is too high given Emmett's power. Emmett could be the 'hot stove' that hurts Topuria.
"I do favor Toporia, but it cannot be ignored that like the fight I see Toporia winning is... 60 40, a suicide mission."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Ilia Topuria

Daniel Levi picks Ilia Topuria to win, citing Topuria's youth (12 years younger), superior boxing, and better jiu-jitsu. He believes Topuria will outbox and finish Emmett in the mid to late rounds. He acknowledges Emmett's power and wrestling but thinks Topuria's cardio concerns are overblown, noting Topuria's short-notice fight against Yusuff. He also mentions Topuria's ability to mix in takedowns and his overall versatility. He is not betting at -310 but is confident in the pick.

No bet at -310; thinks line is about right.
"I think tapiro is the crisper boxer I think he's better Jiu Jitsu... I tend to think the period is gonna outbox and finish them in the mid late rounds but yeah he's my pick but I have no bet …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Jun 19, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Ilia Topuria

The host picks Ilia Topuria to win but is hesitant due to the line being too wide at around -300. He notes that Josh Emmett has tremendous experience against high-level competition and that Topuria hasn't proven himself against a fighter of Emmett's caliber. He suggests value on Emmett's side and expects violence, possibly a finish from either fighter. He ultimately goes with Topuria but advises against betting the moneyline at current odds.

violence (fight doesn't go to decision)
"I'm gonna go with the young girl fighter here in toporia but I think the line is a little bit too wide if anybody's looking to chase value on Josh Ahmed I think the value at least from my perspective …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Ilia Topuria

Paul picks Topuria, acknowledging his elite boxing and jiu-jitsu, but notes the only question mark is his chin after being dropped by Jai Herbert. He thinks the line is accurate and that Topuria outclasses Emmett in many departments, but he won't tie himself financially to this fight.

"I think the line is relatively pretty accurate here at minus 325 like if they fought 10 times he probably wins seven to eight."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Ilia Topuria

The Guru picks Ilia Topuria to win, citing Topuria's youth (26 vs 38), longer layoff without damage, and superior combination punching. He notes Emmett's tendency to throw only 1-2 shots before resetting, while Topuria strings together multi-punch combinations with pauses that can catch Emmett coming out of his own exchanges. He also mentions Emmett's quick turnaround after a war with Yair Rodriguez and brutal weight cuts as potential factors. However, he acknowledges both have one-punch KO power and calls it a dangerous fight, closer to 60-40 than the lopsided public polling suggests.

Mentions that both can knock each other out in the first round; notes Emmett got gifted decisions against Kattar and Ige, implying he's overranked.
"I'm picking Ilya to Puria to win in no way at whatsoever should the poll on topology be 92 Superior eight percent Josh Emmett... this is arguably like a 60 40 type of fight to Ilya to Puria"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Ilia Topuria

Zane picks Topuria, emphasizing that Emmett's style is vulnerable to aggressive pressure fighters who don't respect his power, as seen in losses to Yair Rodriguez and Jeremy Stephens. He notes Topuria's superior boxing technique and body punching, but acknowledges the risk of Topuria's recklessness and Emmett's one-shot power. Zane sees Topuria as the more skilled pocket fighter but warns that Emmett could land a fight-ending shot at any moment.

Odds too wide; Topuria opened -299 now -321, Emmett +253 to +270. Topuria's best win is Bryce Mitchell, not a comparable physical test.
"I got to pick Toporia to the assertiveness and the persistence in the form... I have to pick Toporia here."
LOSS vs Yair Rodríguez
Submission (triangle choke) R2 4:19 · UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski · Feb 12, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Yair Rodríguez 0 62 of 107 57% 98 of 143 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Josh Emmett 0 22 of 52 42% 35 of 72 1 of 4 25% 0 0 3:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Yair Rodríguez 0 26 of 53 49% 32 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Josh Emmett 0 12 of 26 46% 18 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:27
2 Yair Rodríguez 0 36 of 54 66% 66 of 84 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Josh Emmett 0 10 of 26 38% 17 of 34 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:34
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Yair Rodríguez 62 of 107 57% 36 of 76 18 of 22 8 of 9 47 of 87 7 of 9 8 of 11
Josh Emmett 22 of 52 42% 17 of 44 4 of 7 1 of 1 13 of 40 1 of 2 8 of 10
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Yair Rodríguez 26 of 53 49% 14 of 39 7 of 9 5 of 5 21 of 44 1 of 2 4 of 7
Josh Emmett 12 of 26 46% 10 of 24 2 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 15 1 of 2 7 of 9
2 Yair Rodríguez 36 of 54 66% 22 of 37 11 of 13 3 of 4 26 of 43 6 of 7 4 of 4
Josh Emmett 10 of 26 38% 7 of 20 2 of 5 1 of 1 9 of 25 0 of 0 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 5, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Josh Emmett

Angelo picks Josh Emmett, citing his power and wrestling base, though he notes Emmett doesn't use his wrestling often. He believes Emmett's power will be the difference, especially if he can stay close and grind. He acknowledges Yair's creativity and athleticism but thinks Emmett's power and pressure will win. He has a half-unit bet on Emmett at +135.

"Emmett's the pick and I do have a half a unit on him at plus 135"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Feb 6, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Josh Emmett

Big Brady thinks this is a close fight and picks Emmett for the upset. He notes Emmett's power and volume, and thinks Emmett will have the bigger moments. He expects a decision win for Emmett, similar to the Kattar fight, and says the line should be closer.

"I'm gonna pick Josh Emmett here for the upset win I'm gonna take him to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Feb 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Yair Rodríguez

Cody picks Rodríguez but is not confident due to Rodríguez's inconsistency. He notes Rodríguez looked great against Max Holloway with improved cardio and kicking volume, but Emmett has power and wrestling he doesn't use offensively. He thinks Emmett's path is a big shot, but Rodríguez's chin and volume should edge him out. He finds the -175 line unappealing and won't bet it.

"I just think yeah Rodriguez pulls out with it"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 10, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Yair Rodríguez

Connor picks Rodríguez, citing his diverse kicking game and durability as key factors. He notes that Emmett's style is one-dimensional and that Rodríguez can attack from range with kicks, which Emmett struggles to check. Connor also mentions that Emmett's wrestling is not a reliable threat, as he rarely uses it. He believes Rodríguez's toughness and ability to absorb punches will allow him to outwork Emmett over three rounds.

"I also favor yahir. I this was one that kind of threw me because I looked at it and i'm like oh josh emmett's a better fighter than yahir rodriguez... This is not a good fight for josh emmett."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Josh Emmett

Emmett's power punching and forward pressure will be too much for Rodríguez as the fight goes on. Rodríguez slows down in later rounds, as seen against Jeremy Stephens. Emmett has great cardio and defensive wrestling to keep it standing. He will close the distance and land big combinations, likely finishing in the fourth or fifth round. Rodríguez's unorthodox striking may be competitive early, but Emmett's durability and pressure will take over.

"I think Josh Sherman will get closer and closer with those big punches and it's going to continue to demoralize Yaya Rodriguez and I think just slowly but surely Josh Yemen is going to get closer and closer to eventually …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Feb 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Yair Rodríguez

Paul slightly favors Rodríguez on volume, noting Emmett has a power advantage but Rodríguez has better durability. He expects a close competitive fight and thinks the line is accurate, so he won't bet it.

"I'll ever so slightly think that yair Rodriguez edges them out on volume but at minus 160 I mean I think that the books have this one pretty correct"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Yair Rodríguez

The MMA Guru picks Yair Rodríguez over Josh Emmett, citing Emmett's controversial wins and Rodríguez's improved performance against Ortega. He predicts a front kick KO in the first round, noting Rodríguez's chin and Emmett's tendency to get hit. He believes Rodríguez is on a higher level than Emmett.

first round KO via front kick
"I'm gonna go Yaya Rodriguez winning over Josh Emmett"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 10, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Yair Rodríguez

Zane also picks Rodríguez, emphasizing his improved composure and durability. He notes that Emmett's power is a threat, but Rodríguez has never been knocked out and can take shots. Zane highlights that Rodríguez's kicks will be a major problem for Emmett, who has shown vulnerability to low kicks. He also points out that Emmett's wrestling is not a consistent factor, and Rodríguez's range management will frustrate him.

"I also favor yahir. I this was one that kind of threw me because I looked at it and i'm like oh josh emmett's a better fighter than yahir rodriguez... This is not a good fight for josh emmett."
WIN vs Calvin Kattar
Decision (split) (47–48, 48–47, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Kattar vs. Emmett · Jun 18, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Josh Emmett 0 130 of 375 34% 131 of 376 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Calvin Kattar 0 107 of 332 32% 107 of 332 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Josh Emmett 0 14 of 39 35% 15 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Calvin Kattar 0 11 of 35 31% 11 of 35 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
2 Josh Emmett 0 22 of 78 28% 22 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Calvin Kattar 0 26 of 73 35% 26 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Josh Emmett 0 19 of 66 28% 19 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Calvin Kattar 0 27 of 77 35% 27 of 77 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Josh Emmett 0 41 of 106 38% 41 of 106 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Calvin Kattar 0 21 of 80 26% 21 of 80 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:02
5 Josh Emmett 0 34 of 86 39% 34 of 86 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Calvin Kattar 0 22 of 67 32% 22 of 67 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Josh Emmett 130 of 375 34% 114 of 351 15 of 23 1 of 1 130 of 375 0 of 0 0 of 0
Calvin Kattar 107 of 332 32% 73 of 286 26 of 37 8 of 9 106 of 330 1 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Josh Emmett 14 of 39 35% 12 of 36 1 of 2 1 of 1 14 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Calvin Kattar 11 of 35 31% 8 of 32 1 of 1 2 of 2 10 of 33 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Josh Emmett 22 of 78 28% 20 of 76 2 of 2 0 of 0 22 of 78 0 of 0 0 of 0
Calvin Kattar 26 of 73 35% 19 of 63 6 of 9 1 of 1 26 of 73 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Josh Emmett 19 of 66 28% 18 of 62 1 of 4 0 of 0 19 of 66 0 of 0 0 of 0
Calvin Kattar 27 of 77 35% 18 of 65 8 of 11 1 of 1 27 of 77 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Josh Emmett 41 of 106 38% 35 of 98 6 of 8 0 of 0 41 of 106 0 of 0 0 of 0
Calvin Kattar 21 of 80 26% 13 of 68 5 of 9 3 of 3 21 of 80 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Josh Emmett 34 of 86 39% 29 of 79 5 of 7 0 of 0 34 of 86 0 of 0 0 of 0
Calvin Kattar 22 of 67 32% 15 of 58 6 of 7 1 of 2 22 of 67 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 12, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Calvin Kattar

Angelo picks Calvin Kattar, citing his superior boxing, footwork, and technique. He notes Kattar's 90% takedown defense and believes he can avoid Emmett's power. He acknowledges the possibility of Emmett winning by power and damage (like Font vs Vera) but thinks Kattar's pressure and volume will win the decision.

"i do like calvin qatar to win with his footwork and his technique but it's not completely out of the question that calvin vs emmett looks like font vs vera"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 15, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Calvin Kattar

Big Brady picks Calvin Kattar to win by fourth-round knockout. He notes Kattar is younger, taller, and has a reach advantage, and is the better striker with excellent boxing combinations. He acknowledges Emmett's power and seven-fight knockdown streak, but trusts Kattar's chin (never knocked down) and believes Kattar's volume and length will wear Emmett down for a late finish.

fourth round knockout
"I like calvin keator to win i like common cater i'll say to win bye i'll say fourth round knockout for calvin keator"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 15, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Calvin Kattar

Cody believes Calvin Kattar's volume and technical striking will overwhelm Josh Emmett over five rounds. He notes Emmett's power is dangerous but Kattar's durability and head movement are elite, and Emmett rarely uses his wrestling. He expects Kattar to pull away late and suggests Kattar by decision as a prop.

Calvin Kattar by decision
"i think calvin kater's just going to put volume on him all day and slowly start to pull away the longer the fight goes"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 16, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Calvin Kattar

Daniel Levi leans Calvin Kattar as the minute winner, believing Kattar's jab and improved striking variety will keep him ahead on the scorecards. However, he emphasizes that Josh Emmett's one-punch power and ability to steal rounds make this a dog-or-pass betting situation, especially with Kattar at -230. He notes Kattar absorbs a lot of strikes and Emmett has knocked down every featherweight opponent, so a finish is possible either way. Levi ultimately sees it as a coin flip and prefers not to lay the heavy juice.

dog or pass situation; Kattar -230 is too high; Emmett +195 is tempting
"i lean cater it's just minus 250 odds are not indicative of a coin flip fight so i see this at the betting window being a dogger pass situation"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 15, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Calvin Kattar

Paul agrees with Cody, emphasizing Kattar's volume and technical superiority. He points out that Emmett's power is a threat but Kattar's durability and five-round experience favor him. He notes the over/under is set high, suggesting a decision is likely, and he picks Kattar as the rightful favorite.

"i think calvin kater's just going to put volume on him all day and slowly start to pull away the longer the fight goes"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 13, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Calvin Kattar

The MMA Guru picks Calvin Kattar, trusting his technique and durability. He notes that Josh Emmett has power but has struggled against tough opponents like Jeremy Stephens and Dan Ige. He believes Kattar has better boxing, a good chin, and a front kick to keep Emmett at distance. He predicts Kattar will get hurt early but recover and finish Emmett in the third round via TKO.

third round tko
"i'm going with cater over emmett... i see calvin kater getting this one done by third round tko"
WIN vs Dan Ige
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier · Dec 11, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Josh Emmett 1 60 of 165 36% 62 of 167 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:47
Dan Ige 0 70 of 168 41% 73 of 171 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:21
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Josh Emmett 1 14 of 31 45% 15 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:36
Dan Ige 0 23 of 50 46% 25 of 52 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:21
2 Josh Emmett 0 26 of 64 40% 26 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Dan Ige 0 25 of 56 44% 26 of 57 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Josh Emmett 0 20 of 70 28% 21 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Dan Ige 0 22 of 62 35% 22 of 62 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Josh Emmett 60 of 165 36% 51 of 151 7 of 12 2 of 2 48 of 151 5 of 7 7 of 7
Dan Ige 70 of 168 41% 54 of 147 9 of 13 7 of 8 68 of 164 1 of 3 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Josh Emmett 14 of 31 45% 11 of 26 2 of 4 1 of 1 4 of 21 3 of 3 7 of 7
Dan Ige 23 of 50 46% 18 of 45 2 of 2 3 of 3 22 of 49 0 of 0 1 of 1
2 Josh Emmett 26 of 64 40% 21 of 58 4 of 5 1 of 1 24 of 61 2 of 3 0 of 0
Dan Ige 25 of 56 44% 20 of 50 3 of 4 2 of 2 25 of 56 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Josh Emmett 20 of 70 28% 19 of 67 1 of 3 0 of 0 20 of 69 0 of 1 0 of 0
Dan Ige 22 of 62 35% 16 of 52 4 of 7 2 of 3 21 of 59 1 of 3 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Dec 8, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Josh Emmett

Big Brady picks Josh Emmett to win, but with some hesitation due to Emmett's age (36) and layoff. He notes that Emmett is one of the hardest hitters in the division, with knockdowns in his last six fights. Ige is durable and has never been finished, but has been knocked down before. Brady expects Emmett's power to be the key, possibly leading to a decision win if he can't finish Ige. He also mentions that Ige is younger and the line movement favors Ige.

"give me josh emmett to win though i think the power will be key here"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Dec 9, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Josh Emmett

Daniel Levi picks Josh Emmett to win, highlighting his incredible volume and power. He notes that Emmett's strike output increases as the fight progresses, unlike typical power punchers. Levi mentions Emmett's wrestling background and his most knockdowns in featherweight history. He believes Emmett is a bad matchup for Dan Ige, who tends to take rounds off and has defensive issues. Levi sees value in Emmett at -150, opening at -200, and expects a knockout or dominant decision.

"i think josh emmett's a bad matchup for dan ige he opened minus 200 he's currently minus 150 i think there's a hell of a lot of value there"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Josh Emmett

The MMA Guru picks Josh Emmett to win by decision (29-28). He praises Emmett's power, footwork, and technical striking, noting his ability to drop opponents with jabs. He believes Dan Ige was exposed by Korean Zombie and lacks the technical ability to handle Emmett's power and movement.

29-28 decision
"i'm gonna go with josh emmett here i think he's pretty underrated in the featherweight division"
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 5, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Josh Emmett

Angelo picks Josh Emmett, citing his power and wrestling base, though he notes Emmett doesn't use his wrestling often. He believes Emmett's power will be the difference, especially if he can stay close and grind. He acknowledges Yair's creativity and athleticism but thinks Emmett's power and pressure will win. He has a half-unit bet on Emmett at +135.

"Emmett's the pick and I do have a half a unit on him at plus 135"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Feb 6, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Josh Emmett

Big Brady thinks this is a close fight and picks Emmett for the upset. He notes Emmett's power and volume, and thinks Emmett will have the bigger moments. He expects a decision win for Emmett, similar to the Kattar fight, and says the line should be closer.

"I'm gonna pick Josh Emmett here for the upset win I'm gonna take him to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Feb 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Yair Rodríguez

Cody picks Rodríguez but is not confident due to Rodríguez's inconsistency. He notes Rodríguez looked great against Max Holloway with improved cardio and kicking volume, but Emmett has power and wrestling he doesn't use offensively. He thinks Emmett's path is a big shot, but Rodríguez's chin and volume should edge him out. He finds the -175 line unappealing and won't bet it.

"I just think yeah Rodriguez pulls out with it"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 10, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Yair Rodríguez

Connor picks Rodríguez, citing his diverse kicking game and durability as key factors. He notes that Emmett's style is one-dimensional and that Rodríguez can attack from range with kicks, which Emmett struggles to check. Connor also mentions that Emmett's wrestling is not a reliable threat, as he rarely uses it. He believes Rodríguez's toughness and ability to absorb punches will allow him to outwork Emmett over three rounds.

"I also favor yahir. I this was one that kind of threw me because I looked at it and i'm like oh josh emmett's a better fighter than yahir rodriguez... This is not a good fight for josh emmett."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Josh Emmett

Emmett's power punching and forward pressure will be too much for Rodríguez as the fight goes on. Rodríguez slows down in later rounds, as seen against Jeremy Stephens. Emmett has great cardio and defensive wrestling to keep it standing. He will close the distance and land big combinations, likely finishing in the fourth or fifth round. Rodríguez's unorthodox striking may be competitive early, but Emmett's durability and pressure will take over.

"I think Josh Sherman will get closer and closer with those big punches and it's going to continue to demoralize Yaya Rodriguez and I think just slowly but surely Josh Yemen is going to get closer and closer to eventually finishing Yaya Rodriguez probably in the fourth or fifth round"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Feb 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Yair Rodríguez

Paul slightly favors Rodríguez on volume, noting Emmett has a power advantage but Rodríguez has better durability. He expects a close competitive fight and thinks the line is accurate, so he won't bet it.

"I'll ever so slightly think that yair Rodriguez edges them out on volume but at minus 160 I mean I think that the books have this one pretty correct"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Yair Rodríguez

The MMA Guru picks Yair Rodríguez over Josh Emmett, citing Emmett's controversial wins and Rodríguez's improved performance against Ortega. He predicts a front kick KO in the first round, noting Rodríguez's chin and Emmett's tendency to get hit. He believes Rodríguez is on a higher level than Emmett.

first round KO via front kick
"I'm gonna go Yaya Rodriguez winning over Josh Emmett"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 10, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Yair Rodríguez

Zane also picks Rodríguez, emphasizing his improved composure and durability. He notes that Emmett's power is a threat, but Rodríguez has never been knocked out and can take shots. Zane highlights that Rodríguez's kicks will be a major problem for Emmett, who has shown vulnerability to low kicks. He also points out that Emmett's wrestling is not a consistent factor, and Rodríguez's range management will frustrate him.

"I also favor yahir. I this was one that kind of threw me because I looked at it and i'm like oh josh emmett's a better fighter than yahir rodriguez... This is not a good fight for josh emmett."