Career Averages - Justin Tafa
Career Averages - Parker Porter
Justin Tafa
Parker Porter
Justin Tafa - Fight History
Angelo picks Louie Sutherland over Justin Tafa, reasoning that Sutherland is more well-rounded with movement and takedowns, while Tafa is a one-dimensional striker. He acknowledges Tafa's power and Sutherland's susceptibility to being hit, but believes Sutherland's range management and ability to mix in takedowns will be the difference. He compares Sutherland's movement to Jared Vanderaa's win over Tafa.
Big Brady leans toward Louie Sutherland to win by decision. He is disgusted by the fight quality but thinks Sutherland's cardio, clinch work, and durability could be factors if Tafa doesn't get an early KO. He notes Tafa fades in later rounds.
Cody leans toward Sutherland, citing his durability and momentum on a four-fight winning streak. He notes Tafa has durability issues and has been outworked in longer fights. He thinks Sutherland's reach and ability to outwork Tafa if it goes past the first round give him an edge, but calls it a greasy 50/50 fight.
Connor also picks Sutherland, emphasizing Tafa's terrible record and inability to win outside the first round. He notes that Sutherland has never been knocked out and is capable of throwing power combos and low kicks. Connor thinks Sutherland's pressure and durability will overwhelm Tafa, who is purely a reactive striker with no control.
James does not make a clear pick, stating he would lean toward the underdog Sutherland but is not confident. He notes Sutherland has a cardio advantage and could win via wrestling, but doubts Sutherland will implement that game plan. He prefers to pass on the fight or consider an over 1.5 rounds prop.
The host is not a big fan of Tafa's one-dimensional style but thinks this fight suits it. He expects Tafa to shuck off takedown attempts, get back to his feet if taken down, and eventually land big shots to knock Sutherland out cold.
The Guru picks Louie Sutherland (Louie Sutherland) as a hate pick against Justin Tafa, whom he criticizes as overweight and overrated. He believes Sutherland's power and Bellator experience will lead to a first-round knockout, as Tafa's career is on the line.
Zane picks Sutherland, noting that Tafa is a reactive striker who throws one big punch at a time and has poor durability. He believes Sutherland's willingness to blitz with power combos and his ability to go past the first round give him the edge. Zane points out that Tafa has never won a fight that went past two minutes, while Sutherland has experience in longer fights.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Tafa | 0 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tallison Teixeira | 1 | 8 of 9 | 88% | 9 of 10 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Justin Tafa | 0 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tallison Teixeira | 1 | 8 of 9 | 88% | 9 of 10 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Tafa | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Tallison Teixeira | 8 of 9 | 88% | 5 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Justin Tafa | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Tallison Teixeira | 8 of 9 | 88% | 5 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 4 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Teixeira (-135), Tafa (+114)
Round 1
Way high up on the pay-per-view main card, two heavyweights extremely low on the totem pole get this preferred status, likely because someone’s block is about to get knocked off. A combined 100% finish rate, with most of the stoppages from these big men coming in Round 1, means that referee Rich Mitchell should be ready to step in as soon as the opening horn cries. Tafa (7-4, 1 NC; 4-4, 1 NC UFC) recently suffered his first loss in years, while the taller Teixeira (7-0, 0-0 UFC) has never fought beyond 4:40 of a pro fight. The large fists are bopped together before slugging, and Teixeira immediately flashes signs of him kicking. Tafa keeps his guard up to block a powerful head kick that still knocks him back a step, and he adjusts his shorts. Teixeira sets up a right hand to shoot in for a takedown, and he pushes Tafa against the wall in search of the level change. Standing Tafa up, the Brazilian rips a knee to the body and up top with an elbow square on the nose. Tafa collapses like a house of cards, and Teixeira drums his man out with four ferocious punches to the side of the head. Mitchell gets between the two heavyweights to step in, and Teixeira walks off and lets off a booming shout. Tafa looks to Mitchell confusedly, and he complains that he did not even have a moment to defend himself before the fight was called. Just like that, the UFC has another massive heavyweight to contend with, one that still has a 100% stoppage rate with all eight wins in the first round.
The Official Result
Tallison Teixeira def. Justin Tafa R1 0:35 via TKO (Knee to the Body and Elbow)
Big Brady calls this a coin flip, as both heavyweights want to stand and bang. He is concerned about Teixeira's poor striking defense, as he was eating shots from Arthur Lopez. He thinks Tafa has a chance to land a big shot and get a first-round knockout. Brady picks Tafa as the underdog.
Connor also picks Teixeira but is very skeptical. He likes that Teixeira has clever boxing ideas but lacks basic technical fundamentals. He notes that Teixeira is only 25 and a physical monster, which gives him advantages. He thinks Teixeira is good enough to beat Tafa now but will likely lose to more experienced fighters later. He sees Tafa as a counter puncher who needs opponents to make mistakes, and Teixeira might do that, but he still picks Teixeira.
Teixeira is a 6'7" BJJ black belt who has leaned on striking but would be ill-advised to strike with Tafa. He will look to get the fight to the ground, find a dominant position, and open up a submission or ground-and-pound knockout. The official prediction is Teixeira by submission.
Zane picks Teixeira, noting his size advantage and that he is making real informed decisions as a fighter, even if raw. He thinks Teixeira can neutralize Tafa's two dangerous punches and stick him at range. He is skeptical of banana-shaped heavyweights but sees Teixeira as tough and able to take a shot. He acknowledges Tafa could knock him out, but believes Teixeira's composure and developing skills give him the edge.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karl Williams | 0 | 40 of 61 | 65% | 123 of 176 | 7 of 12 | 58% | 1 | 0 | 10:31 |
| Justin Tafa | 0 | 21 of 43 | 48% | 27 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Karl Williams | 0 | 12 of 16 | 75% | 35 of 51 | 4 of 4 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:58 |
| Justin Tafa | 0 | 6 of 12 | 50% | 6 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Karl Williams | 0 | 20 of 34 | 58% | 54 of 81 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 2:45 |
| Justin Tafa | 0 | 9 of 15 | 60% | 14 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Karl Williams | 0 | 8 of 11 | 72% | 34 of 44 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 3:48 |
| Justin Tafa | 0 | 6 of 16 | 37% | 7 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karl Williams | 40 of 61 | 65% | 26 of 47 | 7 of 7 | 7 of 7 | 19 of 29 | 3 of 4 | 18 of 28 |
| Justin Tafa | 21 of 43 | 48% | 15 of 36 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 39 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Karl Williams | 12 of 16 | 75% | 7 of 11 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 6 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 6 |
| Justin Tafa | 6 of 12 | 50% | 4 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Karl Williams | 20 of 34 | 58% | 15 of 29 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 17 |
| Justin Tafa | 9 of 15 | 60% | 5 of 10 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Karl Williams | 8 of 11 | 72% | 4 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 5 of 5 |
| Justin Tafa | 6 of 16 | 37% | 6 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 13 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Justin Tafa as a low confidence underdog, having placed a quarter-unit bet at +220. He overcorrects from Karl Williams' poor performance against Chase Sherman, where Williams' legs were chewed up and takedowns were ineffective. He believes Tafa's leg kicks, takedown defense, and power can win if it becomes a striking match.
Big Brady picks Karl Williams, citing his wrestling advantage and ability to take Tafa down at will. He notes Tafa has a puncher's chance but has terrible losses and likely offers little off his back. He expects Williams to control the fight on the ground and win a decision.
Cody believes Williams' wrestling will be the key, as he can take down bigger opponents and control the fight. He notes that Tafa's 100% takedown defense is misleading because he hasn't faced strong wrestlers. Cody expects Williams to get takedowns early and wear Tafa down, possibly getting a late finish.
Daniel Vreeland picks Karl Williams, emphasizing his wrestling advantage and Tafa's inability to get up from takedowns. He notes Williams can win by decision, ground-and-pound TKO, or submission, while Tafa's only path is a knockout. He warns Williams not to test his standup but believes one takedown could end the fight.
Tafa has massive power in his hands and 100% takedown defense (though limited attempts). Williams relies on grappling and grinding, but Tafa's power should make him pay on the feet. Williams may have early grappling success, but he is not a finisher and will slow down. Tafa should find a knockout in the second or third round. The knockout prop at +185 is noted.
Paul calls Williams the play of the week, citing his speed and explosiveness as a 205-pounder moving up. He highlights Williams' wrestling credentials, including takedowns against Jimmy Lawson and Lucas Brzozowski. Paul acknowledges the Chase Sherman fight as a concern but believes Williams' plan B striking is sufficient. He trusts Williams to implement his game plan.
The MMA Guru picks Karl Williams over Justin Tafa, expressing frustration with 'fat' heavyweights. He likes Williams' takedowns and thinks he can take Tafa down and ground-and-pound him. He notes Tafa's recent injury and Williams' training at top gyms. He predicts a TKO via ground and pound.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Tafa | 1 | 11 of 14 | 78% | 11 of 14 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Austen Lane | 0 | 7 of 14 | 50% | 7 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Justin Tafa | 1 | 11 of 14 | 78% | 11 of 14 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Austen Lane | 0 | 7 of 14 | 50% | 7 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Tafa | 11 of 14 | 78% | 9 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 5 |
| Austen Lane | 7 of 14 | 50% | 3 of 9 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 7 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Justin Tafa | 11 of 14 | 78% | 9 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 5 |
| Austen Lane | 7 of 14 | 50% | 3 of 9 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 7 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Justin Tafa, believing his power will be too much. He notes that Tafa has a great chin and solid kicks, and his big legs and hips make him hard to take down. Austen Lane needs to fight a perfect fight, dancing around and jabbing like Jared Vanderaa, but Angelo doesn't see that happening. He expects Tafa to defend takedowns and knock out Lane.
Big Brady confidently picks Justin Tafa, citing his power and durability advantage. He notes Lane has three losses all by first-round knockout. He thinks Tafa will find his range and knock out Lane again. He predicts a first-round knockout.
Cody picks Austen Lane as a value underdog, arguing that this is a 50-50 fight and Lane has the better athleticism, speed, and cardio. He criticizes Tafa's level of competition and notes that Tafa is a one-round fighter with poor discipline. Cody believes Lane's physical advantages and improvement over time give him a legitimate chance to win.
Daniel Levi picks Justin Tafa but calls it a 'dog or pass' situation. He notes that the first fight ended in an eye poke and now Lane has to travel to Australia. He says his breakdown hasn't changed and he still picks Tafa, but with caution.
Lucrative James is confident Justin Tafa will win, likely by knockout. He notes that Austen Lane is very hittable and that Tafa has fast, precise hands. He dismisses Lane's paths to victory (catching a big shot or takedown) as low probability. James feels the extra preparation time doesn't change his view, and he expects a similar outcome to their first fight that ended in a no contest.
In their first fight, Tafa closed distance and landed a big shot before an eye poke ended it. Lane has issues dealing with big strikes from power punchers. Tafa should crash the pocket and land a knockout. The KO prop at -165 is preferred over the moneyline.
Paul picks Tafa but is hesitant, acknowledging that Tafa is not a high-level fighter but that Austen Lane is one of the worst heavyweights in the UFC. He notes that Tafa has the hometown crowd and that his brother's recent win might help. Paul admits he doesn't like the -200 price but sees Tafa as the more likely winner.
The MMA Guru picks Austen Lane as an underdog over Justin Tafa. He notes that in their first fight, Lane was winning before an accidental eye poke led to a no contest. He believes the eye poke will mentally affect Tafa, making him hesitant. Lane is on a six-fight win streak, all finishes, and is a lean 6'6" with 80" reach, while Tafa is shorter and less athletic. He thinks Lane has multiple paths to victory and could have a run in the division.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austen Lane | 0 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Justin Tafa | 0 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Austen Lane | 0 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Justin Tafa | 0 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austen Lane | 3 of 5 | 60% | 1 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Justin Tafa | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Austen Lane | 3 of 5 | 60% | 1 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Justin Tafa | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Justin Tafa, citing his incredible chin and power, and being almost impossible to take down. He notes Tafa should keep the fight standing and land big power. However, he acknowledges the fight could look like Tafa's loss to Jared Vanderaa if Austen Lane dances around and jabs his way to a decision.
Big Brady picks Justin Tafa, believing he is a much better striker. He notes Lane's poor striking defense and history of being knocked out. He has a concern that if Lane gets on top, he could finish Tafa due to Tafa's lack of ground experience. However, he expects Tafa to knock Lane out in the first round.
Cody picks Tafa, citing his toughness, durability, and experience in the UFC. He notes Lane's losses to low-level competition and thinks Tafa's leg kicks and inside fighting will be key. He acknowledges the danger but believes Tafa gets the win.
Connor picks Tafa, agreeing with Zane. He describes Lane as a 'mess' with no demonstrated ability to fight disciplined at range. Tafa is a patient puncher who will wait for Lane to make mistakes. Connor notes that Lane's wins are against low-level competition and that he was knocked out by Greg Hardy. He expects Tafa to land a knockout.
Daniel Levi picks Justin Tafa but with low conviction due to heavyweight volatility. He notes Tafa's power and left hook, but also his greenness and reach disadvantage. He thinks Tafa will clip Lane eventually but is not confident enough to bet. He mentions Lane's reach and experience but sees Tafa as the bigger hitter.
The host picks Justin Tafa to win by knockout, likely in the first round. He believes Tafa's power will be too much for Lane, who may struggle to maintain distance. He notes Lane's defensive grappling issues and thinks Tafa will land a big shot when Lane crashes the pocket. He also suggests the fight doesn't go to decision as a prop.
Paul picks Tafa, considering him more skilled and durable. He expects a first-round knockout from either side due to volatility. He mentions Tafa's youth and experience, while Lane is an NFL guy who lost to Greg Hardy. He doesn't love the price but picks Tafa.
The Guru initially considered picking Austen Lane due to size and athleticism but reversed after remembering Lane got KO'd by Greg Hardy. He calls Lane's opponents 'fat old men' and says Tafa is open but Lane's lack of talent is disqualifying. He predicts Tafa wins by KO as Lane rushes in desperately.
Zane picks Tafa, citing Lane's raw technique and poor defense. He notes that Lane is a great athlete but a terrible fighter, with no discipline and a tendency to leave his chin exposed. Tafa is patient and powerful, and Zane expects him to land a clean shot on the tall, defensively lacking Lane. He mentions Lane's loss to Greg Hardy and his record of first-round KOs as evidence of his fragility.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Tafa | 1 | 8 of 16 | 50% | 8 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Parker Porter | 0 | 7 of 16 | 43% | 7 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Justin Tafa | 1 | 8 of 16 | 50% | 8 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Parker Porter | 0 | 7 of 16 | 43% | 7 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Tafa | 8 of 16 | 50% | 6 of 13 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 12 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Parker Porter | 7 of 16 | 43% | 5 of 13 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 15 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Justin Tafa | 8 of 16 | 50% | 6 of 13 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 12 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Parker Porter | 7 of 16 | 43% | 5 of 13 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 15 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Parker Porter, defending him against criticism and highlighting his volume striking and footwork. He notes that Justin Tafa has power and a chin but lacks footwork and grappling. He expects Porter to use movement and volume to outpoint Tafa, though he acknowledges the risk of a Tafa knockout. He has a half-unit bet on Porter at +125 and suggests betting on Tafa by KO and Porter by decision as props.
Big Brady calls this a mess of a fight but picks Porter as the minute winner with higher volume and grappling upside. He notes Tafa has power and could knock Porter out, but thinks Porter's cardio and wrestling give him the edge. He predicts a decision win for Porter.
Cody picks Porter as a dog, citing Tafa's one-dimensional kickboxing and poor performances against Jared Vanderaa. He notes Porter has multiple paths: wrestling takedowns and top control, or volume striking. He mentions Porter's wins over Josh Parisian and Chase Sherman show he can land heavy volume. He thinks Porter by decision is a good prop at +350.
Connor picks Tafa hesitantly, citing his power and athletic potential. He notes that Porter is durable but gets hurt badly in every fight, and Tafa has the power to finish. Connor acknowledges that Porter's pace and volume could overwhelm Tafa if he doesn't land early, but he's willing to take a flyer on Tafa's explosiveness. He also mentions that Tafa has shown flashes of improvement.
Porter has good footwork, combinations, and a sneaky wrestling game. Tafa has huge power but poor footwork and can be outpointed, as seen against Vandera. Porter can mix in takedowns to control Tafa on the ground. Tafa's takedown defense is untested (only faced two takedown attempts). Porter's durability and cardio should allow him to outwork Tafa over 15 minutes. However, Tafa's power is a constant threat.
Paul leans toward Porter but is not fully committed. He sees the fight as a low-level heavyweight bout likely going to decision, and considers Porter by decision at +350. He notes Tafa's lack of volume and Porter's ability to outwork him. He may dabble on the decision prop.
The MMA Guru picks Justin Tafa over Parker Porter, noting Tafa's power and youth. He believes Tafa will catch Porter in a scrappy fight and finish him by KO at the end of round one. He dismisses Porter's wins as unimpressive and notes his age and damage taken.
Zane picks Porter, citing his consistency and ability to survive early storms. He notes that Porter is a pace fighter who can take a shot and come back, while Tafa is low-output and one-dimensional. Zane acknowledges that Porter will likely get hurt badly, but he trusts Porter's durability and experience to grind out a win. He also mentions that Porter's jab and volume will be key.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Tafa | 1 | 5 of 10 | 50% | 5 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:02 |
| Harry Hunsucker | 0 | 5 of 9 | 55% | 5 of 9 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Justin Tafa | 1 | 5 of 10 | 50% | 5 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:02 |
| Harry Hunsucker | 0 | 5 of 9 | 55% | 5 of 9 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Tafa | 5 of 10 | 50% | 4 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
| Harry Hunsucker | 5 of 9 | 55% | 2 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 5 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Justin Tafa | 5 of 10 | 50% | 4 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
| Harry Hunsucker | 5 of 9 | 55% | 2 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 5 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Justin Tafa but thinks the odds are nuts. He believes Tafa should be a slight favorite around -150, not -400. He notes Tafa's chin is good and he has leg kicks, but Hunsucker is dangerous with his blitzing style. Angelo considers a small sprinkle on Hunsucker because it's heavyweight and both hit hard. He ultimately goes with Tafa but is not confident.
Big Brady picks Justin Tafa to win by first-round knockout, citing Hunsucker's terrible gas tank (about 2.5 minutes) and tendency to fold. He notes Tafa's 100% finish rate and leg kick potential. He acknowledges Hunsucker could pull off an upset if he lands early, but expects Tafa to roll through him. He compares it to the Jordan Wright-Silva fight.
Cody is confident in Tafa, citing Hunsucker's poor record and lack of durability. He notes that Hunsucker has never been past the first round and has been knocked out in all his losses. Tafa has shown he can go three rounds and has better striking and cardio. Cody expects Tafa to win by KO early, but he doesn't like the -330 price for betting.
Daniel Levi picks Justin Tafa to win, but advises caution at -310. He describes Tafa as having a Mark Hunt-like style with a big left hook and good leg kicks. Levi believes Tafa is more durable and has better hands than Hunsucker, who comes to brawl but is less skilled. He expects Tafa to get a first-round knockout, but notes that Tafa has underperformed in some fights. Levi sees Hunsucker as a gatekeeper brought in to get prospects back on track.
Jacob picks Justin Tafa but plays the over 1.5 rounds at +135. He thinks Hunsucker will pace himself to avoid getting finished early, and Tafa is patient, leading to a slow, boring striking affair. Jacob believes Tafa will outpoint Hunsucker. He also mentions that Hunsucker's history suggests a first-round finish, but he expects a different game plan from Hunsucker to prove he belongs in the UFC.
The host does not pick a winner but expects a first-round finish. He bet 2 units on under 1.5 rounds at -190, believing either fighter could get knocked out. He also mentions Hunsucker by KO at +1000 as a stab.
Paul is very confident in Tafa, calling Hunsucker a low-level fighter who shouldn't be in the UFC. He notes Hunsucker's all first-round finishes (wins and losses) and poor competition. Tafa has better experience and cardio. Paul thinks Tafa will win by KO and mentions the under 1.5 rounds at -165 as a good bet.
The MMA Guru picks Justin Tafa to win by first-round KO. He notes Tafa has shown improvements in cardio and kicking, and he expects Tafa to chop at Hunsucker's calf like Tai Tuivasa did. He thinks Hunsucker has quick hands but Tafa's power and well-roundedness will prevail. He predicts a body kick followed by a counter shot for the KO.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Vanderaa | 0 | 74 of 147 | 50% | 74 of 147 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
| Justin Tafa | 0 | 121 of 248 | 48% | 141 of 269 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:24 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jared Vanderaa | 0 | 15 of 38 | 39% | 15 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Justin Tafa | 0 | 31 of 64 | 48% | 31 of 64 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jared Vanderaa | 0 | 26 of 47 | 55% | 26 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Justin Tafa | 0 | 47 of 90 | 52% | 60 of 103 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:17 | |
| 3 | Jared Vanderaa | 0 | 33 of 62 | 53% | 33 of 62 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
| Justin Tafa | 0 | 43 of 94 | 45% | 50 of 102 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Vanderaa | 74 of 147 | 50% | 35 of 102 | 32 of 38 | 7 of 7 | 70 of 143 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Justin Tafa | 121 of 248 | 48% | 64 of 181 | 34 of 43 | 23 of 24 | 104 of 226 | 17 of 22 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jared Vanderaa | 15 of 38 | 39% | 9 of 31 | 4 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 14 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Justin Tafa | 31 of 64 | 48% | 14 of 44 | 7 of 9 | 10 of 11 | 27 of 58 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jared Vanderaa | 26 of 47 | 55% | 14 of 33 | 7 of 9 | 5 of 5 | 24 of 45 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Justin Tafa | 47 of 90 | 52% | 26 of 66 | 12 of 15 | 9 of 9 | 39 of 79 | 8 of 11 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jared Vanderaa | 33 of 62 | 53% | 12 of 38 | 21 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 32 of 61 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Justin Tafa | 43 of 94 | 45% | 24 of 71 | 15 of 19 | 4 of 4 | 38 of 89 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks the underdog Vanderaa, reasoning that if Vanderaa can get takedowns, he has a huge advantage on the ground with submissions and ground-and-pound, while Tafa is lost on his back. He acknowledges Tafa's striking power could knock Vanderaa out early, but believes Vanderaa's path to victory via grappling is viable. He expects an early finish.
Cody Saftic picks Justin Tafa, citing Tafa's striking advantage and Vanderaa's hittability. He notes that Vanderaa is slow, flat-footed, and defensively unsound, and that Tafa has shown improvement in his last fight against Carlos Felipe. Saftic believes Tafa will get a knockout within the first round and a half, but acknowledges that if it goes longer, Vanderaa could capitalize with his ground-and-pound. He suggests live betting Vanderaa if Tafa fades.
Daniel Levi picks Justin Tafa, believing Tafa's striking power and improving takedown defense will be too much for Vanderaa. He notes that Vanderaa is a tough guy but a walking punching bag, and that Tafa's Samoan kickboxing style with sneaky uppercuts and leg kicks will lead to a first-round knockout. He dismisses Vanderaa's alleged wrestling credentials.
Matt picks Justin Tafa by second-round knockout, but with low confidence. He notes Tafa showed improved patience and leg kicks in his last fight against Carlos Felipe, which changed his perception of Tafa. However, he acknowledges Vanderaa could take a grapple-heavy approach and be successful, so he is not trusting either fighter heavily. He sees this as a good matchup for Tafa to find a knockout, but not a lock play.
Paul Shaughnessy also picks Tafa but is hesitant due to the price. He notes that Tafa is only 4-2 and has shown inconsistency, but believes he is the better striker and that Vanderaa's wrestling advantage may not be enough. He suggests passing on the moneyline and instead looking for a better price on Tafa by knockout, or live betting.
The MMA Guru predicts Justin Tafa will win by first-round KO via uppercut. He dismisses Vanderaa's wrestling as garbage and expects Tafa to chop at the calf early, slowing Vanderaa down. Then Tafa will catch him against the cage with an uppercut, leading to a TKO finish.
Parker Porter - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Junior Tafa | 1 | 8 of 13 | 61% | 11 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Parker Porter | 0 | 2 of 9 | 22% | 3 of 10 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Junior Tafa | 1 | 8 of 13 | 61% | 11 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Parker Porter | 0 | 2 of 9 | 22% | 3 of 10 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Junior Tafa | 8 of 13 | 61% | 7 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Parker Porter | 2 of 9 | 22% | 2 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Junior Tafa | 8 of 13 | 61% | 7 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Parker Porter | 2 of 9 | 22% | 2 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Tafa (-142), Porter (+120)
Round 1
Heavyweights get the ball rolling on the main card, as Tafa attempts to rebound from a decision loss to Mohammed Usman on April 22. Porter, meanwhile, sports a 4-3 record across his seven UFC appearances. Marc Goddard draws the officiating assignment. The sportsmen touch gloves. Porter flips out a jab and throws two punches behind it but misses his target. Tafa connects with a collar-tie knee, staggers the Connecticut native and lands an overhand right. Porter clinches in a bid to recover.
Tafa breaks away and delivers a clean standing elbow while doing so. Power punches follow, and Porter hits the deck after eating a brutal right hook to the side of the head
.
The Official Result
Junior Tafa def. Parker Porter—KO (Punch) 1:24 R1
Angelo admits bias as Parker Porter is a personal friend, but argues that even without bias, Porter has a clear path to victory through wrestling. He notes that Tafa has poor takedown defense and was taken down easily in his debut. Porter has solid takedowns and cardio, and if he avoids a firefight, he can control the fight.
Big Brady highlights Junior Tafa's serious power and good striking, but notes his poor takedown defense. He thinks Parker Porter will need to wrestle to win, but doubts Porter's ability to control the fight or finish on the ground. He expects the fight to stay at range where Tafa's power will be decisive, predicting a first-round knockout similar to his brother Justin's win over Porter.
Cody picks Porter as a plus money underdog, citing his wrestling and cardio advantage. He notes that Tafa struggled with takedown defense in his debut and Porter can lean on him. Cody is not highly confident due to heavyweight volatility but likes the value.
Daniel picks Junior Tafa, noting that he is a much better striker with fast hands and power. He believes Porter's only path is grappling, but Tafa showed good takedown defense early in his last fight. He mentions that Porter is being fed to Tafa as a winnable fight. He is confident Tafa wins if the fight stays standing, and expects a knockout.
James is confident Junior Tafa wins, citing his speed, technique, and youth advantage (26 vs 38). He doubts Porter's wrestling ability to get Tafa down and believes Tafa will land a knockout on the feet. He notes Tafa carries power late and could finish in round three even after being taken down earlier. He bet on Tafa.
The host is critical of Junior Tafa's inexperience (5 pro fights) and believes he is only in the UFC because of his brother. He notes Tafa gassed in his debut and has limited grappling. Porter has 22 fights, dropped weight, and looked better in his last win. The host expects Porter to grind out a decision, possibly with a submission, and prefers the underdog due to the experience gap.
Paul also picks Porter, noting his wrestling and experience. He mentions that Tafa's brother knocked Porter out, but Junior is a different style. Paul thinks Porter can grind out a win if he avoids getting clipped early.
The MMA Guru picks Junior Tafa over Parker Porter, dismissing Porter's win over Braxton Smith as Smith quitting. He believes Tafa has more potential and should have beaten Mohammed Usman based on damage. He predicts Tafa will knock out Porter, noting Porter's lack of grappling threat and Tafa's power. He calls for a first-round KO in brutal fashion.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parker Porter | 0 | 14 of 29 | 48% | 14 of 29 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Braxton Smith | 0 | 25 of 37 | 67% | 37 of 62 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:27 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Parker Porter | 0 | 14 of 29 | 48% | 14 of 29 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Braxton Smith | 0 | 25 of 37 | 67% | 37 of 62 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:27 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parker Porter | 14 of 29 | 48% | 13 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Braxton Smith | 25 of 37 | 67% | 24 of 36 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 24 | 3 of 3 | 10 of 10 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Parker Porter | 14 of 29 | 48% | 13 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Braxton Smith | 25 of 37 | 67% | 24 of 36 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 24 | 3 of 3 | 10 of 10 |
Angelo picks his personal friend Parker Porter, but notes the betting line supports it as Porter is a -180 favorite. He believes Porter is better in every aspect except raw power, with superior technique, footwork, wrestling, Jiu-Jitsu, and cardio. Angelo wants Porter to chop down Braxton Smith's legs with kicks to neutralize his power, similar to a recent heavyweight fight. He is confident Porter will win but acknowledges bias.
Big Brady picks Smith but with very low confidence, calling it a 50/50 fight. He notes Smith has massive power and has knocked out all his recent opponents quickly, but Porter has fought better competition and has cardio and grappling advantages. He believes if Porter doesn't take Smith down early, Smith will knock him out. He predicts a first-round knockout for Smith.
Cody sees Porter as the clear pick due to his experience, grappling advantage, and cardio. He notes Smith is a one-dimensional brawler with no wrestling or cardio, and all his wins are early KOs. If Porter survives the first few minutes, he can take Smith down and dominate. He expects Porter to win inside the distance.
Connor picks Porter, noting his good conditioning and boxing, and that Smith lost his pro debut to Chase Sherman. He thinks if Smith doesn't KO Porter early, Porter can outwork him. However, he acknowledges Smith has a real chance to KO Porter.
The host picks Braxton Smith by first round knockout. He believes Smith's explosive power will be too much for Parker Porter, who has shown durability issues. He notes Smith's gas tank is a concern but expects an early finish. He recommends the under 1.5 rounds prop as a good bet.
Paul agrees, noting Smith's only path is an early KO, but Porter has been knocked out early before. However, he thinks Porter's grappling and experience should prevail. He calls it a 'scraping the bottom of the barrel' heavyweight fight but picks Porter.
The Guru picks Smith as an underdog, citing his KO power and athleticism. He notes Porter is a 'fat old man' who was just knocked out by Justin Tafa. He acknowledges Smith's record may have inaccuracies but believes his explosiveness and kickboxing will overwhelm Porter.
Zane picks Smith because of his massive power and the fact that Porter has been knocked out early by power punchers. He notes Smith is inexperienced and if he doesn't KO Porter early, he likely loses. But Porter's lack of speed and durability make Smith a reasonable pick.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Tafa | 1 | 8 of 16 | 50% | 8 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Parker Porter | 0 | 7 of 16 | 43% | 7 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Justin Tafa | 1 | 8 of 16 | 50% | 8 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Parker Porter | 0 | 7 of 16 | 43% | 7 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Tafa | 8 of 16 | 50% | 6 of 13 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 12 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Parker Porter | 7 of 16 | 43% | 5 of 13 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 15 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Justin Tafa | 8 of 16 | 50% | 6 of 13 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 12 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Parker Porter | 7 of 16 | 43% | 5 of 13 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 15 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Parker Porter, defending him against criticism and highlighting his volume striking and footwork. He notes that Justin Tafa has power and a chin but lacks footwork and grappling. He expects Porter to use movement and volume to outpoint Tafa, though he acknowledges the risk of a Tafa knockout. He has a half-unit bet on Porter at +125 and suggests betting on Tafa by KO and Porter by decision as props.
Big Brady calls this a mess of a fight but picks Porter as the minute winner with higher volume and grappling upside. He notes Tafa has power and could knock Porter out, but thinks Porter's cardio and wrestling give him the edge. He predicts a decision win for Porter.
Cody picks Porter as a dog, citing Tafa's one-dimensional kickboxing and poor performances against Jared Vanderaa. He notes Porter has multiple paths: wrestling takedowns and top control, or volume striking. He mentions Porter's wins over Josh Parisian and Chase Sherman show he can land heavy volume. He thinks Porter by decision is a good prop at +350.
Connor picks Tafa hesitantly, citing his power and athletic potential. He notes that Porter is durable but gets hurt badly in every fight, and Tafa has the power to finish. Connor acknowledges that Porter's pace and volume could overwhelm Tafa if he doesn't land early, but he's willing to take a flyer on Tafa's explosiveness. He also mentions that Tafa has shown flashes of improvement.
Porter has good footwork, combinations, and a sneaky wrestling game. Tafa has huge power but poor footwork and can be outpointed, as seen against Vandera. Porter can mix in takedowns to control Tafa on the ground. Tafa's takedown defense is untested (only faced two takedown attempts). Porter's durability and cardio should allow him to outwork Tafa over 15 minutes. However, Tafa's power is a constant threat.
Paul leans toward Porter but is not fully committed. He sees the fight as a low-level heavyweight bout likely going to decision, and considers Porter by decision at +350. He notes Tafa's lack of volume and Porter's ability to outwork him. He may dabble on the decision prop.
The MMA Guru picks Justin Tafa over Parker Porter, noting Tafa's power and youth. He believes Tafa will catch Porter in a scrappy fight and finish him by KO at the end of round one. He dismisses Porter's wins as unimpressive and notes his age and damage taken.
Zane picks Porter, citing his consistency and ability to survive early storms. He notes that Porter is a pace fighter who can take a shot and come back, while Tafa is low-output and one-dimensional. Zane acknowledges that Porter will likely get hurt badly, but he trusts Porter's durability and experience to grind out a win. He also mentions that Porter's jab and volume will be key.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jailton Almeida | 0 | 18 of 34 | 52% | 36 of 58 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 4:29 |
| Parker Porter | 0 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jailton Almeida | 0 | 18 of 34 | 52% | 36 of 58 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 4:29 |
| Parker Porter | 0 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jailton Almeida | 18 of 34 | 52% | 16 of 32 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 17 of 33 |
| Parker Porter | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jailton Almeida | 18 of 34 | 52% | 16 of 32 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 17 of 33 |
| Parker Porter | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Parker Porter despite being biased as a friend. He believes Porter's pace, striking volume, and takedown defense will be key. He notes that Almeida is moving up from light heavyweight and has never gone to the third round, while Porter has cardio and heavy hips that make him hard to take down. He expects Porter to stuff takedowns and win a decision.
Big Brady picks Jailton Almeida to win by first-round TKO, expecting him to take down Parker Porter and finish quickly. He notes Almeida is a beast on the mat with vicious ground-and-pound, but admits there is no footage of his striking. He worries about Almeida's cardio if the fight extends, but believes Almeida will get the job done early. He says it's a sketchy fight and he is not betting it.
Cody likes Almeida's potential but sees red flags: moving up to heavyweight, facing a much larger opponent, and his cardio against a bigger guy. He notes Almeida's impressive finishes but thinks the price is too high. He considers using Almeida in parlays and mentions live betting opportunities if Almeida doesn't finish early.
The host discusses the fight but does not make a clear pick. He notes the size difference (41 pounds) and suggests Almeida should use his speed and athleticism to get a knockout rather than grinding for takedowns. He is not betting on Almeida due to the chalk, but he thinks Almeida will likely win. He also mentions that Porter could potentially get a DQ win or upset.
Paul thinks Almeida is the truth but is priced out. He notes Almeida's size and skills but worries about the weight class change and Porter's volume. He says he'll watch weigh-ins and might consider Porter by decision at +1400 as a small play.
The MMA Guru confidently picks Jailton Almeida, believing he will out-grapple Parker Porter. He notes Almeida's size and reach advantage, and thinks he can throw Porter around and get a submission. He predicts a first-round rear-naked choke win for Almeida.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parker Porter | 0 | 43 of 106 | 40% | 82 of 150 | 2 of 8 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 6:34 |
| Alan Baudot | 0 | 55 of 107 | 51% | 61 of 113 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:24 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Parker Porter | 0 | 12 of 39 | 30% | 29 of 56 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:52 |
| Alan Baudot | 0 | 17 of 32 | 53% | 18 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 | |
| 2 | Parker Porter | 0 | 19 of 39 | 48% | 25 of 45 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:23 |
| Alan Baudot | 0 | 14 of 32 | 43% | 15 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:19 | |
| 3 | Parker Porter | 0 | 12 of 28 | 42% | 28 of 49 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:19 |
| Alan Baudot | 0 | 24 of 43 | 55% | 28 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parker Porter | 43 of 106 | 40% | 20 of 80 | 4 of 4 | 19 of 22 | 34 of 94 | 6 of 7 | 3 of 5 |
| Alan Baudot | 55 of 107 | 51% | 43 of 94 | 11 of 11 | 1 of 2 | 50 of 101 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Parker Porter | 12 of 39 | 30% | 8 of 35 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 8 of 34 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Alan Baudot | 17 of 32 | 53% | 13 of 27 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 1 | 14 of 28 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Parker Porter | 19 of 39 | 48% | 5 of 24 | 3 of 3 | 11 of 12 | 16 of 36 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
| Alan Baudot | 14 of 32 | 43% | 12 of 30 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 31 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Parker Porter | 12 of 28 | 42% | 7 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 7 | 10 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 |
| Alan Baudot | 24 of 43 | 55% | 18 of 37 | 5 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 23 of 42 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Parker Porter confidently, though admits bias as a friend. He highlights Porter's footwork, power, underrated wrestling, and ridiculous volume. He notes Baudot is a competent striker with power but has poor ground game and has never seen a decision. Angelo expects Porter to dominate with wrestling and volume.
Big Brady picks Parker Porter, calling Baudot one of the worst heavyweights. He notes Porter has better cardio and ground game, while Baudot has been finished in all losses and tends to quit. He predicts Porter wins by second or third round knockout.
Cody is very confident in Porter, calling him a potential best pick of the week. He highlights Porter's excellent cardio, high volume striking (149 significant strikes in his last fight), and takedown ability. Cody notes that Baudot has no redeeming qualities: poor grappling, no power, and a weak chin. He believes Porter can win wherever the fight goes, either by out-striking or taking Baudot down and smashing him.
Levi picks Porter, noting that Baudot has a history of quitting (took a knee against Nascimento) and that Porter has heart and toughness. He expects Porter to survive an early storm and take over after the first round. Levi has faded Baudot in both his UFC fights and believes Porter's veteran experience and durability will be key.
Porter has a clear path to victory: weather Baudot's early storm, then take him down and submit him. Baudot has terrible grappling and gasses in the second round. Porter's submission game is underrated, and Baudot has been submitted by lower-level grapplers. Porter by submission at +700 is the best prop on the card. The fight doesn't go to decision at -200 is also a strong play.
Paul picks Porter, expressing surprise that the line is only -250 given Baudot's poor performances. He notes that Baudot has been dominated in his UFC fights and lacks power or grappling. Paul thinks Porter's cardio and pace will be too much for Baudot, and that Porter should win comfortably.
The MMA Guru picks Parker Porter to win by 29-28 decision. He trusts Porter's experience and veteran tricks, noting he has good grappling awareness and toughness. He thinks Alan Baudot may have early success but Porter will wear him down in the later rounds. He also mentions that Baudot won his UFC entry by DQ and has been KO'd before.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parker Porter | 0 | 149 of 278 | 53% | 159 of 294 | 1 of 8 | 12% | 0 | 0 | 2:19 |
| Chase Sherman | 0 | 117 of 249 | 46% | 121 of 253 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Parker Porter | 0 | 21 of 56 | 37% | 30 of 69 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:57 |
| Chase Sherman | 0 | 29 of 59 | 49% | 30 of 60 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Parker Porter | 0 | 57 of 105 | 54% | 58 of 107 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Chase Sherman | 0 | 51 of 102 | 50% | 52 of 103 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Parker Porter | 0 | 71 of 117 | 60% | 71 of 118 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
| Chase Sherman | 0 | 37 of 88 | 42% | 39 of 90 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parker Porter | 149 of 278 | 53% | 116 of 243 | 17 of 17 | 16 of 18 | 141 of 270 | 7 of 7 | 1 of 1 |
| Chase Sherman | 117 of 249 | 46% | 69 of 199 | 15 of 17 | 33 of 33 | 115 of 247 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Parker Porter | 21 of 56 | 37% | 14 of 47 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 8 | 19 of 54 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Chase Sherman | 29 of 59 | 49% | 20 of 50 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 8 | 29 of 59 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Parker Porter | 57 of 105 | 54% | 48 of 96 | 6 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 55 of 103 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Chase Sherman | 51 of 102 | 50% | 27 of 77 | 11 of 12 | 13 of 13 | 50 of 101 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Parker Porter | 71 of 117 | 60% | 54 of 100 | 10 of 10 | 7 of 7 | 67 of 113 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Chase Sherman | 37 of 88 | 42% | 22 of 72 | 3 of 4 | 12 of 12 | 36 of 87 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Chase Sherman confidently, citing his better competition, toughness, and power. He notes Porter is very hittable and has been finished in all his losses. Sherman has a 93% finish rate, all by knockout. He predicts a second-round knockout.
Cody picks Sherman, citing his athleticism, leg kicks, and volume. He notes Sherman's improved game since his first UFC stint and believes he has a clear advantage. He mentions Sherman's back issues and past PED suspension but still favors him.
Porter has good durability, leg kicks, and clinch work. Sherman's volume drops in later rounds, while Porter maintains his pace. If Porter survives the first round, he can take over. I'm picking Porter by decision, but I'm hesitant as some respected people are on Sherman.
Paul leans toward Porter as a live underdog, highlighting his durability, leg kicks, and pressure. He questions Sherman's cardio and mental toughness, noting Sherman looked defeated against Arlovski. He sees Porter's ability to push pace and land leg kicks as key, but worries about Porter's weight cut and shape.
The MMA Guru picks Chase Sherman to win by TKO. He notes Sherman is bigger, has good cardio, and a reach advantage. He expects Sherman to use elbows against the cage on the shorter Porter. He acknowledges Porter's win over Josh Parisian but considers it unimpressive.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parker Porter | 0 | 114 of 226 | 50% | 123 of 237 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:28 |
| Josh Parisian | 0 | 126 of 228 | 55% | 164 of 275 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 4:27 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Parker Porter | 0 | 56 of 115 | 48% | 61 of 122 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Josh Parisian | 0 | 46 of 92 | 50% | 57 of 104 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:10 | |
| 2 | Parker Porter | 0 | 24 of 43 | 55% | 27 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Josh Parisian | 0 | 30 of 46 | 65% | 54 of 78 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 3:12 | |
| 3 | Parker Porter | 0 | 34 of 68 | 50% | 35 of 69 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:26 |
| Josh Parisian | 0 | 50 of 90 | 55% | 53 of 93 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parker Porter | 114 of 226 | 50% | 71 of 173 | 35 of 44 | 8 of 9 | 89 of 190 | 25 of 36 | 0 of 0 |
| Josh Parisian | 126 of 228 | 55% | 90 of 190 | 16 of 18 | 20 of 20 | 105 of 198 | 20 of 27 | 1 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Parker Porter | 56 of 115 | 48% | 38 of 92 | 18 of 22 | 0 of 1 | 38 of 89 | 18 of 26 | 0 of 0 |
| Josh Parisian | 46 of 92 | 50% | 33 of 77 | 10 of 12 | 3 of 3 | 33 of 77 | 13 of 15 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Parker Porter | 24 of 43 | 55% | 11 of 30 | 9 of 9 | 4 of 4 | 19 of 37 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Josh Parisian | 30 of 46 | 65% | 18 of 34 | 4 of 4 | 8 of 8 | 25 of 35 | 4 of 8 | 1 of 3 | |
| 3 | Parker Porter | 34 of 68 | 50% | 22 of 51 | 8 of 13 | 4 of 4 | 32 of 64 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Josh Parisian | 50 of 90 | 55% | 39 of 79 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 9 | 47 of 86 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Daukaus | 2 | 37 of 59 | 62% | 45 of 67 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:35 |
| Parker Porter | 0 | 17 of 52 | 32% | 18 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chris Daukaus | 2 | 37 of 59 | 62% | 45 of 67 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:35 |
| Parker Porter | 0 | 17 of 52 | 32% | 18 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Daukaus | 37 of 59 | 62% | 29 of 49 | 4 of 6 | 4 of 4 | 29 of 50 | 6 of 7 | 2 of 2 |
| Parker Porter | 17 of 52 | 32% | 12 of 44 | 1 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 14 of 47 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chris Daukaus | 37 of 59 | 62% | 29 of 49 | 4 of 6 | 4 of 4 | 29 of 50 | 6 of 7 | 2 of 2 |
| Parker Porter | 17 of 52 | 32% | 12 of 44 | 1 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 14 of 47 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady thinks Chris Daukaus is the more skilled striker and hits harder. He criticizes Parker Porter's lack of fight shape and believes Daukaus will knock him out in the first round. He notes both have been knocked out before but favors Daukaus' power.
Daniel Levi picks Parker Porter. He notes that Chris Daukaus is not as talented as his brother Kyle, and that Porter is the bigger, more physical fighter. He expects Porter to use his size and power to get takedowns and control the fight. He also mentions that Daukaus has been knocked out before and that Porter's game plan is straightforward.
The MMA Guru picks Parker Porter based on experience, noting that Porter has fought higher-level competition outside the UFC, including Gabriel Gonzaga. He dismisses both fighters as unskilled but believes Porter's experience on short notice gives him the edge.
Expert Picks (8)
Angelo picks Parker Porter, defending him against criticism and highlighting his volume striking and footwork. He notes that Justin Tafa has power and a chin but lacks footwork and grappling. He expects Porter to use movement and volume to outpoint Tafa, though he acknowledges the risk of a Tafa knockout. He has a half-unit bet on Porter at +125 and suggests betting on Tafa by KO and Porter by decision as props.
Big Brady calls this a mess of a fight but picks Porter as the minute winner with higher volume and grappling upside. He notes Tafa has power and could knock Porter out, but thinks Porter's cardio and wrestling give him the edge. He predicts a decision win for Porter.
Cody picks Porter as a dog, citing Tafa's one-dimensional kickboxing and poor performances against Jared Vanderaa. He notes Porter has multiple paths: wrestling takedowns and top control, or volume striking. He mentions Porter's wins over Josh Parisian and Chase Sherman show he can land heavy volume. He thinks Porter by decision is a good prop at +350.
Connor picks Tafa hesitantly, citing his power and athletic potential. He notes that Porter is durable but gets hurt badly in every fight, and Tafa has the power to finish. Connor acknowledges that Porter's pace and volume could overwhelm Tafa if he doesn't land early, but he's willing to take a flyer on Tafa's explosiveness. He also mentions that Tafa has shown flashes of improvement.
Porter has good footwork, combinations, and a sneaky wrestling game. Tafa has huge power but poor footwork and can be outpointed, as seen against Vandera. Porter can mix in takedowns to control Tafa on the ground. Tafa's takedown defense is untested (only faced two takedown attempts). Porter's durability and cardio should allow him to outwork Tafa over 15 minutes. However, Tafa's power is a constant threat.
Paul leans toward Porter but is not fully committed. He sees the fight as a low-level heavyweight bout likely going to decision, and considers Porter by decision at +350. He notes Tafa's lack of volume and Porter's ability to outwork him. He may dabble on the decision prop.
The MMA Guru picks Justin Tafa over Parker Porter, noting Tafa's power and youth. He believes Tafa will catch Porter in a scrappy fight and finish him by KO at the end of round one. He dismisses Porter's wins as unimpressive and notes his age and damage taken.
Zane picks Porter, citing his consistency and ability to survive early storms. He notes that Porter is a pace fighter who can take a shot and come back, while Tafa is low-output and one-dimensional. Zane acknowledges that Porter will likely get hurt badly, but he trusts Porter's durability and experience to grind out a win. He also mentions that Porter's jab and volume will be key.
**Pick:** Louis Sutherland (Unanimous) **Analysis:** This is a low-level heavyweight fight. The pick is based on Justin Tafa's clear limitations; he is a reactive striker who has never won a decision and has lost every fight that has gone past the two-minute mark. Louis Sutherland has never been knocked out and has proven he can win in later rounds. If Sutherland can survive Tafa's initial power, his durability and activity will win him the fight. **Props:** No specific props were mentioned.
**Pick:** Justin Tafa **Analysis:** Expecting a stand-up battle between two heavy hitters. Tafa is a 'Mark Hunt prototype' with big power and improving takedown defense. His power will be the deciding factor in the striking exchanges. **Props:** Tafa by rear uppercut walk-off KO.