vs
-115 +106
UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski · Feb 12, 2023 · Heavyweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski Next Fight
Age 32
Height 6' 0"
Reach 74.0"
Weight 264 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Age 41
Height 6' 0"
Reach 75.0"
Weight 265 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Justin Tafa
4.05 SLpM
54.0% Str. Acc.
5.11 SApM
47.0% Str. Def.
0.0 TD Avg
0.0% TD Acc.
53.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Parker Porter
6.55 SLpM
50.0% Str. Acc.
6.32 SApM
51.0% Str. Def.
1.35 TD Avg
26.0% TD Acc.
66.0% TD Def.
0.5 Sub. Avg
Justin Tafa
Moneyline
Caesars -115
KO/TKO
BetMGM +175
Submission
FanDuel +2000
Decision
FanDuel +500
Parker Porter
Moneyline
FanDuel +106
KO/TKO
FanDuel +500
Submission
BetRivers +700
Decision
BetWay +350
Justin Tafa - Fight History
CANCEL vs Louie Sutherland
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2025 (7 days before fight)
Louie Sutherland

Angelo picks Louie Sutherland over Justin Tafa, reasoning that Sutherland is more well-rounded with movement and takedowns, while Tafa is a one-dimensional striker. He acknowledges Tafa's power and Sutherland's susceptibility to being hit, but believes Sutherland's range management and ability to mix in takedowns will be the difference. He compares Sutherland's movement to Jared Vanderaa's win over Tafa.

"I'm going to pick Louis Sutherland here. Like he is the more well-rounded guy. Justin Tafa is by far the better striker when it comes to pure technique. Probably the more powerful striker as well. And Louisie gets hit. So …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Sep 25, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Louie Sutherland

Big Brady leans toward Louie Sutherland to win by decision. He is disgusted by the fight quality but thinks Sutherland's cardio, clinch work, and durability could be factors if Tafa doesn't get an early KO. He notes Tafa fades in later rounds.

"I'm leaning ever so slightly Louis Sutherland. But if you bet on this fight, you probably need to go to prison."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Sep 23, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Louie Sutherland

Cody leans toward Sutherland, citing his durability and momentum on a four-fight winning streak. He notes Tafa has durability issues and has been outworked in longer fights. He thinks Sutherland's reach and ability to outwork Tafa if it goes past the first round give him an edge, but calls it a greasy 50/50 fight.

"I'm off the Justin Tough of bandwagon altogether. And for Louisie, again, not a world beater by any stretch."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Louie Sutherland

Connor also picks Sutherland, emphasizing Tafa's terrible record and inability to win outside the first round. He notes that Sutherland has never been knocked out and is capable of throwing power combos and low kicks. Connor thinks Sutherland's pressure and durability will overwhelm Tafa, who is purely a reactive striker with no control.

"I think I have to pick Louis Sutherland because you know what hasn't happened to Louis Sutherland so far in his career? It's never been knocked out."
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Sep 19, 2025 (9 days before fight)

James does not make a clear pick, stating he would lean toward the underdog Sutherland but is not confident. He notes Sutherland has a cardio advantage and could win via wrestling, but doubts Sutherland will implement that game plan. He prefers to pass on the fight or consider an over 1.5 rounds prop.

over 1.5 rounds
"I tend to lean that side just because he's an underdog. I feel like in this fight, you just bet the underdog. But I'm most certainly going to be passing on this fight, boys."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

The host is not a big fan of Tafa's one-dimensional style but thinks this fight suits it. He expects Tafa to shuck off takedown attempts, get back to his feet if taken down, and eventually land big shots to knock Sutherland out cold.

win by knockout
"I am not a big fan of Toffa given his one-dimensional approach to fights, but this is the type of fight for that one-dimensional style to play out and actually be successful. Look for Tafa to shuck off most of …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Louie Sutherland

The Guru picks Louie Sutherland (Louie Sutherland) as a hate pick against Justin Tafa, whom he criticizes as overweight and overrated. He believes Sutherland's power and Bellator experience will lead to a first-round knockout, as Tafa's career is on the line.

first round KO
"I'm going to go with Luis Southerntherland getting this one done."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Louie Sutherland

Zane picks Sutherland, noting that Tafa is a reactive striker who throws one big punch at a time and has poor durability. He believes Sutherland's willingness to blitz with power combos and his ability to go past the first round give him the edge. Zane points out that Tafa has never won a fight that went past two minutes, while Sutherland has experience in longer fights.

"I think I have to pick Louis Sutherland because you know what hasn't happened to Louis Sutherland so far in his career? It's never been knocked out."
KO R1 0:35 · UFC 312: du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 · Feb 09, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Justin Tafa 0 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tallison Teixeira 1 8 of 9 88% 9 of 10 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:11
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Justin Tafa 0 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tallison Teixeira 1 8 of 9 88% 9 of 10 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:11
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Justin Tafa 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tallison Teixeira 8 of 9 88% 5 of 6 3 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 2 3 of 3 4 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Justin Tafa 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tallison Teixeira 8 of 9 88% 5 of 6 3 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 2 3 of 3 4 of 4
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Justin Tafa vs. Tallison Teixeira
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Teixeira (-135), Tafa (+114)

Round 1
Way high up on the pay-per-view main card, two heavyweights extremely low on the totem pole get this preferred status, likely because someone’s block is about to get knocked off. A combined 100% finish rate, with most of the stoppages from these big men coming in Round 1, means that referee Rich Mitchell should be ready to step in as soon as the opening horn cries. Tafa (7-4, 1 NC; 4-4, 1 NC UFC) recently suffered his first loss in years, while the taller Teixeira (7-0, 0-0 UFC) has never fought beyond 4:40 of a pro fight. The large fists are bopped together before slugging, and Teixeira immediately flashes signs of him kicking. Tafa keeps his guard up to block a powerful head kick that still knocks him back a step, and he adjusts his shorts. Teixeira sets up a right hand to shoot in for a takedown, and he pushes Tafa against the wall in search of the level change. Standing Tafa up, the Brazilian rips a knee to the body and up top with an elbow square on the nose. Tafa collapses like a house of cards, and Teixeira drums his man out with four ferocious punches to the side of the head. Mitchell gets between the two heavyweights to step in, and Teixeira walks off and lets off a booming shout. Tafa looks to Mitchell confusedly, and he complains that he did not even have a moment to defend himself before the fight was called. Just like that, the UFC has another massive heavyweight to contend with, one that still has a 100% stoppage rate with all eight wins in the first round.

The Official Result
Tallison Teixeira def. Justin Tafa R1 0:35 via TKO (Knee to the Body and Elbow)
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Feb 3, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

Big Brady calls this a coin flip, as both heavyweights want to stand and bang. He is concerned about Teixeira's poor striking defense, as he was eating shots from Arthur Lopez. He thinks Tafa has a chance to land a big shot and get a first-round knockout. Brady picks Tafa as the underdog.

"give me Justin tafa by first round KO"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Feb 6, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Tallison Teixeira

Connor also picks Teixeira but is very skeptical. He likes that Teixeira has clever boxing ideas but lacks basic technical fundamentals. He notes that Teixeira is only 25 and a physical monster, which gives him advantages. He thinks Teixeira is good enough to beat Tafa now but will likely lose to more experienced fighters later. He sees Tafa as a counter puncher who needs opponents to make mistakes, and Teixeira might do that, but he still picks Teixeira.

Same odds as Zane.
"I think he's in the right place where I'm going to pick him to beat Justin Tafa."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Tallison Teixeira

Teixeira is a 6'7" BJJ black belt who has leaned on striking but would be ill-advised to strike with Tafa. He will look to get the fight to the ground, find a dominant position, and open up a submission or ground-and-pound knockout. The official prediction is Teixeira by submission.

submission
"my official prediction will be to Shara by submission"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Feb 6, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Tallison Teixeira

Zane picks Teixeira, noting his size advantage and that he is making real informed decisions as a fighter, even if raw. He thinks Teixeira can neutralize Tafa's two dangerous punches and stick him at range. He is skeptical of banana-shaped heavyweights but sees Teixeira as tough and able to take a shot. He acknowledges Tafa could knock him out, but believes Teixeira's composure and developing skills give him the edge.

Teixeira opened at -153, currently -133; Tafa opened at +137, currently +119. Zane says odds are reasonable.
"I think he can kind of neutralize Tafa's two dangerous punches and stick him out of range."
LOSS vs Karl Williams
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Ribas vs. Namajunas · Mar 23, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Karl Williams 0 40 of 61 65% 123 of 176 7 of 12 58% 1 0 10:31
Justin Tafa 0 21 of 43 48% 27 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Karl Williams 0 12 of 16 75% 35 of 51 4 of 4 100% 0 0 3:58
Justin Tafa 0 6 of 12 50% 6 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Karl Williams 0 20 of 34 58% 54 of 81 1 of 2 50% 1 0 2:45
Justin Tafa 0 9 of 15 60% 14 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Karl Williams 0 8 of 11 72% 34 of 44 2 of 6 33% 0 0 3:48
Justin Tafa 0 6 of 16 37% 7 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Karl Williams 40 of 61 65% 26 of 47 7 of 7 7 of 7 19 of 29 3 of 4 18 of 28
Justin Tafa 21 of 43 48% 15 of 36 6 of 7 0 of 0 18 of 39 2 of 3 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Karl Williams 12 of 16 75% 7 of 11 2 of 2 3 of 3 6 of 7 3 of 3 3 of 6
Justin Tafa 6 of 12 50% 4 of 10 2 of 2 0 of 0 5 of 11 0 of 0 1 of 1
2 Karl Williams 20 of 34 58% 15 of 29 4 of 4 1 of 1 10 of 17 0 of 0 10 of 17
Justin Tafa 9 of 15 60% 5 of 10 4 of 5 0 of 0 9 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Karl Williams 8 of 11 72% 4 of 7 1 of 1 3 of 3 3 of 5 0 of 1 5 of 5
Justin Tafa 6 of 16 37% 6 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 13 2 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Mar 17, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

Angelo picks Justin Tafa as a low confidence underdog, having placed a quarter-unit bet at +220. He overcorrects from Karl Williams' poor performance against Chase Sherman, where Williams' legs were chewed up and takedowns were ineffective. He believes Tafa's leg kicks, takedown defense, and power can win if it becomes a striking match.

quarter unit bet at +220
"I am actually going to pick Justin taffa in this fight and Yeah Carl may show up and be the prospect that he's supposed to be"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Karl Williams

Big Brady picks Karl Williams, citing his wrestling advantage and ability to take Tafa down at will. He notes Tafa has a puncher's chance but has terrible losses and likely offers little off his back. He expects Williams to control the fight on the ground and win a decision.

"I'm kind of leaning Williams here um to get takedowns get control time Williams is a good wrestler a very good wrestler she'd have no problem getting takedowns here against tafa"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 21, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Karl Williams

Cody believes Williams' wrestling will be the key, as he can take down bigger opponents and control the fight. He notes that Tafa's 100% takedown defense is misleading because he hasn't faced strong wrestlers. Cody expects Williams to get takedowns early and wear Tafa down, possibly getting a late finish.

"I feel like Carl Williams gets those takedowns gets them early and often wears them down and maybe gets like a late second or early third round finish."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Karl Williams

Daniel Vreeland picks Karl Williams, emphasizing his wrestling advantage and Tafa's inability to get up from takedowns. He notes Williams can win by decision, ground-and-pound TKO, or submission, while Tafa's only path is a knockout. He warns Williams not to test his standup but believes one takedown could end the fight.

"I really do think Carl I mean I really do think Kyle it could be a one takedown situation and the fight might be over shortly after"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

Tafa has massive power in his hands and 100% takedown defense (though limited attempts). Williams relies on grappling and grinding, but Tafa's power should make him pay on the feet. Williams may have early grappling success, but he is not a finisher and will slow down. Tafa should find a knockout in the second or third round. The knockout prop at +185 is noted.

Tafa by KO at +185
"I'm going to go with the underdog heavyweight here and TAA for him to... eventually come back and find The Knockout in the second or third round... give me Justin TAA and TAA by knockout."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 21, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Karl Williams

Paul calls Williams the play of the week, citing his speed and explosiveness as a 205-pounder moving up. He highlights Williams' wrestling credentials, including takedowns against Jimmy Lawson and Lucas Brzozowski. Paul acknowledges the Chase Sherman fight as a concern but believes Williams' plan B striking is sufficient. He trusts Williams to implement his game plan.

"My gut tells me Williams is the play of the week top ticket load up this is easy path of Victory."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Karl Williams

The MMA Guru picks Karl Williams over Justin Tafa, expressing frustration with 'fat' heavyweights. He likes Williams' takedowns and thinks he can take Tafa down and ground-and-pound him. He notes Tafa's recent injury and Williams' training at top gyms. He predicts a TKO via ground and pound.

TKO via ground and pound
"I'm going with KL Williams over Justin Taffer... TKO to ground and pound early"
WIN vs Austen Lane
KO (punches) R1 1:22 · UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland · Sep 10, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Justin Tafa 1 11 of 14 78% 11 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Austen Lane 0 7 of 14 50% 7 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Justin Tafa 1 11 of 14 78% 11 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Austen Lane 0 7 of 14 50% 7 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Justin Tafa 11 of 14 78% 9 of 11 0 of 0 2 of 3 6 of 9 0 of 0 5 of 5
Austen Lane 7 of 14 50% 3 of 9 1 of 2 3 of 3 7 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Justin Tafa 11 of 14 78% 9 of 11 0 of 0 2 of 3 6 of 9 0 of 0 5 of 5
Austen Lane 7 of 14 50% 3 of 9 1 of 2 3 of 3 7 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 3, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

Angelo picks Justin Tafa, believing his power will be too much. He notes that Tafa has a great chin and solid kicks, and his big legs and hips make him hard to take down. Austen Lane needs to fight a perfect fight, dancing around and jabbing like Jared Vanderaa, but Angelo doesn't see that happening. He expects Tafa to defend takedowns and knock out Lane.

"I think taffa's power is going to be too big I think his big fat ass legs and hips are going to be too hard to get to the ground so Taff is going to defend a couple of sloppy …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 5, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

Big Brady confidently picks Justin Tafa, citing his power and durability advantage. He notes Lane has three losses all by first-round knockout. He thinks Tafa will find his range and knock out Lane again. He predicts a first-round knockout.

"give me Justin Tafa I'll take Justin tawa to win this fight by first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Austen Lane

Cody picks Austen Lane as a value underdog, arguing that this is a 50-50 fight and Lane has the better athleticism, speed, and cardio. He criticizes Tafa's level of competition and notes that Tafa is a one-round fighter with poor discipline. Cody believes Lane's physical advantages and improvement over time give him a legitimate chance to win.

Lane by KO (implied); three-to-one shoe bet on Lane
"I think Austin Lane can win this fight 50 of the time and he happens to have the ball the value"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Sep 7, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

Daniel Levi picks Justin Tafa but calls it a 'dog or pass' situation. He notes that the first fight ended in an eye poke and now Lane has to travel to Australia. He says his breakdown hasn't changed and he still picks Tafa, but with caution.

Odds mentioned: Tafa minus 200, Lane plus 170. Levi calls it a 'dog or pass' situation.
"I'm gonna pick Justin taffa I think his dog or pass though."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Sep 7, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

Lucrative James is confident Justin Tafa will win, likely by knockout. He notes that Austen Lane is very hittable and that Tafa has fast, precise hands. He dismisses Lane's paths to victory (catching a big shot or takedown) as low probability. James feels the extra preparation time doesn't change his view, and he expects a similar outcome to their first fight that ended in a no contest.

"I'm picking Justin tougher here without too much cause for concern I think he's going to get a knockout I'm pretty confident to be honest"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

In their first fight, Tafa closed distance and landed a big shot before an eye poke ended it. Lane has issues dealing with big strikes from power punchers. Tafa should crash the pocket and land a knockout. The KO prop at -165 is preferred over the moneyline.

Tafa by KO at -165
"I'm going to take tafa and tafa to win this fight by knockout minus 165 on him to win by knockout"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Sep 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

Paul picks Tafa but is hesitant, acknowledging that Tafa is not a high-level fighter but that Austen Lane is one of the worst heavyweights in the UFC. He notes that Tafa has the hometown crowd and that his brother's recent win might help. Paul admits he doesn't like the -200 price but sees Tafa as the more likely winner.

"I think Austin Lane is one of the worst guys in the heavyweight division so I think it's got to be tough"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 4, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Austen Lane

The MMA Guru picks Austen Lane as an underdog over Justin Tafa. He notes that in their first fight, Lane was winning before an accidental eye poke led to a no contest. He believes the eye poke will mentally affect Tafa, making him hesitant. Lane is on a six-fight win streak, all finishes, and is a lean 6'6" with 80" reach, while Tafa is shorter and less athletic. He thinks Lane has multiple paths to victory and could have a run in the division.

"I'm gonna go Austin Lane"
LOSS vs Austen Lane
No Contest (accidental eye poke) R1 0:29 · UFC on ABC: Emmett vs. Topuria · Jun 24, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Austen Lane 0 3 of 5 60% 3 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Justin Tafa 0 0 of 3 0% 0 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Austen Lane 0 3 of 5 60% 3 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Justin Tafa 0 0 of 3 0% 0 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Austen Lane 3 of 5 60% 1 of 3 2 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Justin Tafa 0 of 3 0% 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Austen Lane 3 of 5 60% 1 of 3 2 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Justin Tafa 0 of 3 0% 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 18, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

Angelo picks Justin Tafa, citing his incredible chin and power, and being almost impossible to take down. He notes Tafa should keep the fight standing and land big power. However, he acknowledges the fight could look like Tafa's loss to Jared Vanderaa if Austen Lane dances around and jabs his way to a decision.

"Tava should be able to keep this standing and just land that big Power so he's gonna be the pick here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

Big Brady picks Justin Tafa, believing he is a much better striker. He notes Lane's poor striking defense and history of being knocked out. He has a concern that if Lane gets on top, he could finish Tafa due to Tafa's lack of ground experience. However, he expects Tafa to knock Lane out in the first round.

first round knockout
"I am going to take tafa to win this fight by first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

Cody picks Tafa, citing his toughness, durability, and experience in the UFC. He notes Lane's losses to low-level competition and thinks Tafa's leg kicks and inside fighting will be key. He acknowledges the danger but believes Tafa gets the win.

Tafa round 1 KO at plus 200 mentioned; under 1.5 rounds considered.
"I think he's tougher more durable has the experience has a number of fights in the UFC."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

Connor picks Tafa, agreeing with Zane. He describes Lane as a 'mess' with no demonstrated ability to fight disciplined at range. Tafa is a patient puncher who will wait for Lane to make mistakes. Connor notes that Lane's wins are against low-level competition and that he was knocked out by Greg Hardy. He expects Tafa to land a knockout.

"Okay. That makes two of us."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Jun 22, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

Daniel Levi picks Justin Tafa but with low conviction due to heavyweight volatility. He notes Tafa's power and left hook, but also his greenness and reach disadvantage. He thinks Tafa will clip Lane eventually but is not confident enough to bet. He mentions Lane's reach and experience but sees Tafa as the bigger hitter.

Passing on betting; picks Tafa but no bet.
"I'm picking tafa but it's probably my least least strong conviction on the entire card"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

The host picks Justin Tafa to win by knockout, likely in the first round. He believes Tafa's power will be too much for Lane, who may struggle to maintain distance. He notes Lane's defensive grappling issues and thinks Tafa will land a big shot when Lane crashes the pocket. He also suggests the fight doesn't go to decision as a prop.

fight doesn't go to decision
"give me taffa by knockout probably in the first round"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

Paul picks Tafa, considering him more skilled and durable. He expects a first-round knockout from either side due to volatility. He mentions Tafa's youth and experience, while Lane is an NFL guy who lost to Greg Hardy. He doesn't love the price but picks Tafa.

Under 1.5 rounds considered; Tafa round 1 KO at plus 150 mentioned.
"I like taffa but I mean expect expect craziness here."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

The Guru initially considered picking Austen Lane due to size and athleticism but reversed after remembering Lane got KO'd by Greg Hardy. He calls Lane's opponents 'fat old men' and says Tafa is open but Lane's lack of talent is disqualifying. He predicts Tafa wins by KO as Lane rushes in desperately.

Predicts KO win for Tafa.
"Austin Lane got ko'd by Greg Harding I'm going with Justin tougher you can't get ko'd by Greg Hardy ever and expect me to think that you have any Talent"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

Zane picks Tafa, citing Lane's raw technique and poor defense. He notes that Lane is a great athlete but a terrible fighter, with no discipline and a tendency to leave his chin exposed. Tafa is patient and powerful, and Zane expects him to land a clean shot on the tall, defensively lacking Lane. He mentions Lane's loss to Greg Hardy and his record of first-round KOs as evidence of his fragility.

"I definitely have to pick Justin Toffa here."
WIN vs Parker Porter
KO (punch) R1 1:06 · UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski · Feb 12, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Justin Tafa 1 8 of 16 50% 8 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Parker Porter 0 7 of 16 43% 7 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Justin Tafa 1 8 of 16 50% 8 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Parker Porter 0 7 of 16 43% 7 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Justin Tafa 8 of 16 50% 6 of 13 2 of 3 0 of 0 5 of 12 3 of 4 0 of 0
Parker Porter 7 of 16 43% 5 of 13 0 of 1 2 of 2 7 of 15 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Justin Tafa 8 of 16 50% 6 of 13 2 of 3 0 of 0 5 of 12 3 of 4 0 of 0
Parker Porter 7 of 16 43% 5 of 13 0 of 1 2 of 2 7 of 15 0 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 5, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Parker Porter

Angelo picks Parker Porter, defending him against criticism and highlighting his volume striking and footwork. He notes that Justin Tafa has power and a chin but lacks footwork and grappling. He expects Porter to use movement and volume to outpoint Tafa, though he acknowledges the risk of a Tafa knockout. He has a half-unit bet on Porter at +125 and suggests betting on Tafa by KO and Porter by decision as props.

Bet on Tafa by KO and Porter by decision if plus money
"Parker Porter is the pick half a unit money line bet on him at plus 125"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Feb 6, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Parker Porter

Big Brady calls this a mess of a fight but picks Porter as the minute winner with higher volume and grappling upside. He notes Tafa has power and could knock Porter out, but thinks Porter's cardio and wrestling give him the edge. He predicts a decision win for Porter.

"give me the guy that I feel like and win this fight across 15 minutes give me Parker by by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Parker Porter

Cody picks Porter as a dog, citing Tafa's one-dimensional kickboxing and poor performances against Jared Vanderaa. He notes Porter has multiple paths: wrestling takedowns and top control, or volume striking. He mentions Porter's wins over Josh Parisian and Chase Sherman show he can land heavy volume. He thinks Porter by decision is a good prop at +350.

Porter by decision at +350
"I would take Porter to to drop on what you were saying probably Park reporter by decision"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Feb 10, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

Connor picks Tafa hesitantly, citing his power and athletic potential. He notes that Porter is durable but gets hurt badly in every fight, and Tafa has the power to finish. Connor acknowledges that Porter's pace and volume could overwhelm Tafa if he doesn't land early, but he's willing to take a flyer on Tafa's explosiveness. He also mentions that Tafa has shown flashes of improvement.

"I think i'm gonna take the flyer on justin toffa... I just get the feeling that toffa has the ability to grow by leaps and bounds."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Feb 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Parker Porter

Porter has good footwork, combinations, and a sneaky wrestling game. Tafa has huge power but poor footwork and can be outpointed, as seen against Vandera. Porter can mix in takedowns to control Tafa on the ground. Tafa's takedown defense is untested (only faced two takedown attempts). Porter's durability and cardio should allow him to outwork Tafa over 15 minutes. However, Tafa's power is a constant threat.

"I still think that this is a spot where Parker Porter can go out there and do what he does best makes the martial arts as effortlessly as he does and put together a solid body of work over 15 …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Feb 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Parker Porter

Paul leans toward Porter but is not fully committed. He sees the fight as a low-level heavyweight bout likely going to decision, and considers Porter by decision at +350. He notes Tafa's lack of volume and Porter's ability to outwork him. He may dabble on the decision prop.

Porter by decision at +350
"I can see the argument for Porter... I think this is a low level sloppy heavyweight fight probably goes 15 minutes"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

The MMA Guru picks Justin Tafa over Parker Porter, noting Tafa's power and youth. He believes Tafa will catch Porter in a scrappy fight and finish him by KO at the end of round one. He dismisses Porter's wins as unimpressive and notes his age and damage taken.

first round KO
"I'm gonna go with Justin tafa getting this one done via Chao Parker Porter"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Feb 10, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Parker Porter

Zane picks Porter, citing his consistency and ability to survive early storms. He notes that Porter is a pace fighter who can take a shot and come back, while Tafa is low-output and one-dimensional. Zane acknowledges that Porter will likely get hurt badly, but he trusts Porter's durability and experience to grind out a win. He also mentions that Porter's jab and volume will be key.

"I'll pick parker porter because I don't care that much... I think being a lumbering pace fighter who yes gets hurt but is definitely like... gotten pretty damn good at surviving."
KO (head kick) R1 1:53 · UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus · Dec 18, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Justin Tafa 1 5 of 10 50% 5 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:02
Harry Hunsucker 0 5 of 9 55% 5 of 9 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Justin Tafa 1 5 of 10 50% 5 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:02
Harry Hunsucker 0 5 of 9 55% 5 of 9 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Justin Tafa 5 of 10 50% 4 of 9 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 8 0 of 0 1 of 2
Harry Hunsucker 5 of 9 55% 2 of 5 1 of 1 2 of 3 5 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Justin Tafa 5 of 10 50% 4 of 9 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 8 0 of 0 1 of 2
Harry Hunsucker 5 of 9 55% 2 of 5 1 of 1 2 of 3 5 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Dec 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

Angelo picks Justin Tafa but thinks the odds are nuts. He believes Tafa should be a slight favorite around -150, not -400. He notes Tafa's chin is good and he has leg kicks, but Hunsucker is dangerous with his blitzing style. Angelo considers a small sprinkle on Hunsucker because it's heavyweight and both hit hard. He ultimately goes with Tafa but is not confident.

small sprinkle on Harry Hunsucker (mentioned as possibility)
"i'm gonna go top of here but i i want to be as clear as possible these odds are nuts"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

Big Brady picks Justin Tafa to win by first-round knockout, citing Hunsucker's terrible gas tank (about 2.5 minutes) and tendency to fold. He notes Tafa's 100% finish rate and leg kick potential. He acknowledges Hunsucker could pull off an upset if he lands early, but expects Tafa to roll through him. He compares it to the Jordan Wright-Silva fight.

first round knockout
"I'm going to take justin toffee here to get the first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 16, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

Cody is confident in Tafa, citing Hunsucker's poor record and lack of durability. He notes that Hunsucker has never been past the first round and has been knocked out in all his losses. Tafa has shown he can go three rounds and has better striking and cardio. Cody expects Tafa to win by KO early, but he doesn't like the -330 price for betting.

Under 1.5 rounds -165
"I'll pick I'll pick tough up but I'm not betting that"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Dec 16, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

Daniel Levi picks Justin Tafa to win, but advises caution at -310. He describes Tafa as having a Mark Hunt-like style with a big left hook and good leg kicks. Levi believes Tafa is more durable and has better hands than Hunsucker, who comes to brawl but is less skilled. He expects Tafa to get a first-round knockout, but notes that Tafa has underperformed in some fights. Levi sees Hunsucker as a gatekeeper brought in to get prospects back on track.

Tafa by KO in round 1
"Give me Justin Tafa to get it done... maybe he gets that first round knockout."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Dec 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

Jacob picks Justin Tafa but plays the over 1.5 rounds at +135. He thinks Hunsucker will pace himself to avoid getting finished early, and Tafa is patient, leading to a slow, boring striking affair. Jacob believes Tafa will outpoint Hunsucker. He also mentions that Hunsucker's history suggests a first-round finish, but he expects a different game plan from Hunsucker to prove he belongs in the UFC.

over 1.5 rounds at +135
"i think i might play the over one and a half for plus 135 on this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert picked Dec 17, 2021 (1 day before fight)

The host does not pick a winner but expects a first-round finish. He bet 2 units on under 1.5 rounds at -190, believing either fighter could get knocked out. He also mentions Hunsucker by KO at +1000 as a stab.

under 1.5 rounds (-190), 2 units; Hunsucker by KO (+1000)
"I personally have a play on the under one and a half i took two units at -190"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 16, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

Paul is very confident in Tafa, calling Hunsucker a low-level fighter who shouldn't be in the UFC. He notes Hunsucker's all first-round finishes (wins and losses) and poor competition. Tafa has better experience and cardio. Paul thinks Tafa will win by KO and mentions the under 1.5 rounds at -165 as a good bet.

Under 1.5 rounds -165
"I think he's going to more often than not catch harry before it carry he catches him if this thing goes to a second round which I don't think it's going to"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 13, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

The MMA Guru picks Justin Tafa to win by first-round KO. He notes Tafa has shown improvements in cardio and kicking, and he expects Tafa to chop at Hunsucker's calf like Tai Tuivasa did. He thinks Hunsucker has quick hands but Tafa's power and well-roundedness will prevail. He predicts a body kick followed by a counter shot for the KO.

first round KO
"i'm gonna go with justin tafa not as easy of a pick as some people might think"
LOSS vs Jared Vanderaa
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbrandt · May 22, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jared Vanderaa 0 74 of 147 50% 74 of 147 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
Justin Tafa 0 121 of 248 48% 141 of 269 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:24
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jared Vanderaa 0 15 of 38 39% 15 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Justin Tafa 0 31 of 64 48% 31 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jared Vanderaa 0 26 of 47 55% 26 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Justin Tafa 0 47 of 90 52% 60 of 103 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:17
3 Jared Vanderaa 0 33 of 62 53% 33 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
Justin Tafa 0 43 of 94 45% 50 of 102 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jared Vanderaa 74 of 147 50% 35 of 102 32 of 38 7 of 7 70 of 143 4 of 4 0 of 0
Justin Tafa 121 of 248 48% 64 of 181 34 of 43 23 of 24 104 of 226 17 of 22 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jared Vanderaa 15 of 38 39% 9 of 31 4 of 5 2 of 2 14 of 37 1 of 1 0 of 0
Justin Tafa 31 of 64 48% 14 of 44 7 of 9 10 of 11 27 of 58 4 of 6 0 of 0
2 Jared Vanderaa 26 of 47 55% 14 of 33 7 of 9 5 of 5 24 of 45 2 of 2 0 of 0
Justin Tafa 47 of 90 52% 26 of 66 12 of 15 9 of 9 39 of 79 8 of 11 0 of 0
3 Jared Vanderaa 33 of 62 53% 12 of 38 21 of 24 0 of 0 32 of 61 1 of 1 0 of 0
Justin Tafa 43 of 94 45% 24 of 71 15 of 19 4 of 4 38 of 89 5 of 5 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked May 18, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Jared Vanderaa

Big Brady picks the underdog Vanderaa, reasoning that if Vanderaa can get takedowns, he has a huge advantage on the ground with submissions and ground-and-pound, while Tafa is lost on his back. He acknowledges Tafa's striking power could knock Vanderaa out early, but believes Vanderaa's path to victory via grappling is viable. He expects an early finish.

Vanderaa by ground-and-pound, first round
"i'm gonna pick the dog here in vendera to get those takedowns to get that ground upon victory"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 19, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

Cody Saftic picks Justin Tafa, citing Tafa's striking advantage and Vanderaa's hittability. He notes that Vanderaa is slow, flat-footed, and defensively unsound, and that Tafa has shown improvement in his last fight against Carlos Felipe. Saftic believes Tafa will get a knockout within the first round and a half, but acknowledges that if it goes longer, Vanderaa could capitalize with his ground-and-pound. He suggests live betting Vanderaa if Tafa fades.

Tafa by knockout, live bet Vanderaa if Tafa fades
"my pick's going to be topha tafa and i think he should be able to get this one done by knockout but toff has got a round and a half to get this thing done by knockout"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 20, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

Daniel Levi picks Justin Tafa, believing Tafa's striking power and improving takedown defense will be too much for Vanderaa. He notes that Vanderaa is a tough guy but a walking punching bag, and that Tafa's Samoan kickboxing style with sneaky uppercuts and leg kicks will lead to a first-round knockout. He dismisses Vanderaa's alleged wrestling credentials.

first round knockout
"i think justin tafa is going to knock him out in the first round so i'm going tafa here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked May 19, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

Matt picks Justin Tafa by second-round knockout, but with low confidence. He notes Tafa showed improved patience and leg kicks in his last fight against Carlos Felipe, which changed his perception of Tafa. However, he acknowledges Vanderaa could take a grapple-heavy approach and be successful, so he is not trusting either fighter heavily. He sees this as a good matchup for Tafa to find a knockout, but not a lock play.

Justin Tafa by KO/TKO round 2
"i'll go justin tafa via second round knockout in this fight"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked May 19, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

Paul Shaughnessy also picks Tafa but is hesitant due to the price. He notes that Tafa is only 4-2 and has shown inconsistency, but believes he is the better striker and that Vanderaa's wrestling advantage may not be enough. He suggests passing on the moneyline and instead looking for a better price on Tafa by knockout, or live betting.

Tafa by knockout (plus money), pass on moneyline
"i hate to keep saying past pass pass so i i will make a pick it will be justin tafa but you know it could get a better price on it"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 22, 2021 (fight day)
Justin Tafa

The MMA Guru predicts Justin Tafa will win by first-round KO via uppercut. He dismisses Vanderaa's wrestling as garbage and expects Tafa to chop at the calf early, slowing Vanderaa down. Then Tafa will catch him against the cage with an uppercut, leading to a TKO finish.

"i'm going first round ko for justin tafar here"
Parker Porter - Fight History
LOSS vs Junior Tafa
KO (punch) R1 1:24 · UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. The Korean Zombie · Aug 26, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Junior Tafa 1 8 of 13 61% 11 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Parker Porter 0 2 of 9 22% 3 of 10 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:17
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Junior Tafa 1 8 of 13 61% 11 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Parker Porter 0 2 of 9 22% 3 of 10 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:17
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Junior Tafa 8 of 13 61% 7 of 12 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 7 4 of 6 0 of 0
Parker Porter 2 of 9 22% 2 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Junior Tafa 8 of 13 61% 7 of 12 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 7 4 of 6 0 of 0
Parker Porter 2 of 9 22% 2 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Junior Tafa vs. Parker Porter
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Tafa (-142), Porter (+120)

Round 1
Heavyweights get the ball rolling on the main card, as Tafa attempts to rebound from a decision loss to Mohammed Usman on April 22. Porter, meanwhile, sports a 4-3 record across his seven UFC appearances. Marc Goddard draws the officiating assignment. The sportsmen touch gloves. Porter flips out a jab and throws two punches behind it but misses his target. Tafa connects with a collar-tie knee, staggers the Connecticut native and lands an overhand right. Porter clinches in a bid to recover.
Tafa breaks away and delivers a clean standing elbow while doing so. Power punches follow, and Porter hits the deck after eating a brutal right hook to the side of the head
.

The Official Result
Junior Tafa def. Parker Porter—KO (Punch) 1:24 R1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 20, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Parker Porter

Angelo admits bias as Parker Porter is a personal friend, but argues that even without bias, Porter has a clear path to victory through wrestling. He notes that Tafa has poor takedown defense and was taken down easily in his debut. Porter has solid takedowns and cardio, and if he avoids a firefight, he can control the fight.

"Parker's gonna be the pick here I will be watching very very intently and just yelling shoot"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 21, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Junior Tafa

Big Brady highlights Junior Tafa's serious power and good striking, but notes his poor takedown defense. He thinks Parker Porter will need to wrestle to win, but doubts Porter's ability to control the fight or finish on the ground. He expects the fight to stay at range where Tafa's power will be decisive, predicting a first-round knockout similar to his brother Justin's win over Porter.

first round knockout
"I like Junior tawfa I like him to knock out Parker Porter"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Aug 24, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Parker Porter

Cody picks Porter as a plus money underdog, citing his wrestling and cardio advantage. He notes that Tafa struggled with takedown defense in his debut and Porter can lean on him. Cody is not highly confident due to heavyweight volatility but likes the value.

"ever so reluctantly I will take that plus mounting flyer on Parker port"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 24, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Junior Tafa

Daniel picks Junior Tafa, noting that he is a much better striker with fast hands and power. He believes Porter's only path is grappling, but Tafa showed good takedown defense early in his last fight. He mentions that Porter is being fed to Tafa as a winnable fight. He is confident Tafa wins if the fight stays standing, and expects a knockout.

"I like all of those for a minus 141. um I just think Parker Porter is being fed here to a guy that they want to get a W for to be honest so give me junior taffa here uh …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Aug 26, 2023 (fight day)
Junior Tafa

James is confident Junior Tafa wins, citing his speed, technique, and youth advantage (26 vs 38). He doubts Porter's wrestling ability to get Tafa down and believes Tafa will land a knockout on the feet. He notes Tafa carries power late and could finish in round three even after being taken down earlier. He bet on Tafa.

bet on Junior Tafa moneyline
"I bet on Junior tougher"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 22, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Parker Porter

The host is critical of Junior Tafa's inexperience (5 pro fights) and believes he is only in the UFC because of his brother. He notes Tafa gassed in his debut and has limited grappling. Porter has 22 fights, dropped weight, and looked better in his last win. The host expects Porter to grind out a decision, possibly with a submission, and prefers the underdog due to the experience gap.

"I'd rather take a shot on the underdog Kieran Parker Porter who has you know what is that five uh so tafas five professional fights uh Porter has 22 professional fights we're talking about over four times the amount of …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Aug 24, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Parker Porter

Paul also picks Porter, noting his wrestling and experience. He mentions that Tafa's brother knocked Porter out, but Junior is a different style. Paul thinks Porter can grind out a win if he avoids getting clipped early.

"I'll go with the ever so slight dog in Parker Porter here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 22, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Junior Tafa

The MMA Guru picks Junior Tafa over Parker Porter, dismissing Porter's win over Braxton Smith as Smith quitting. He believes Tafa has more potential and should have beaten Mohammed Usman based on damage. He predicts Tafa will knock out Porter, noting Porter's lack of grappling threat and Tafa's power. He calls for a first-round KO in brutal fashion.

KO in round 1 predicted
"I'm gonna go Junior tougher by KO in the first round in brutal fashion"
WIN vs Braxton Smith
TKO (punches) R1 2:10 · UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo · May 06, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Parker Porter 0 14 of 29 48% 14 of 29 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Braxton Smith 0 25 of 37 67% 37 of 62 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:27
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Parker Porter 0 14 of 29 48% 14 of 29 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Braxton Smith 0 25 of 37 67% 37 of 62 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:27
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Parker Porter 14 of 29 48% 13 of 28 0 of 0 1 of 1 14 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
Braxton Smith 25 of 37 67% 24 of 36 1 of 1 0 of 0 12 of 24 3 of 3 10 of 10
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Parker Porter 14 of 29 48% 13 of 28 0 of 0 1 of 1 14 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
Braxton Smith 25 of 37 67% 24 of 36 1 of 1 0 of 0 12 of 24 3 of 3 10 of 10
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Parker Porter

Angelo picks his personal friend Parker Porter, but notes the betting line supports it as Porter is a -180 favorite. He believes Porter is better in every aspect except raw power, with superior technique, footwork, wrestling, Jiu-Jitsu, and cardio. Angelo wants Porter to chop down Braxton Smith's legs with kicks to neutralize his power, similar to a recent heavyweight fight. He is confident Porter will win but acknowledges bias.

"Parker's gonna be the pick here for me obviously he's my good friend but this isn't just Angelo favoring his friends he's almost a two to one for the uh Vegas odds"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked May 1, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Braxton Smith

Big Brady picks Smith but with very low confidence, calling it a 50/50 fight. He notes Smith has massive power and has knocked out all his recent opponents quickly, but Porter has fought better competition and has cardio and grappling advantages. He believes if Porter doesn't take Smith down early, Smith will knock him out. He predicts a first-round knockout for Smith.

First round knockout prediction; fight is sketchy, probably shouldn't be bet on
"I'm gonna take Braxton Smith to win this fight by first round knockout I think he's going to pressure Parker Porter"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 3, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Parker Porter

Cody sees Porter as the clear pick due to his experience, grappling advantage, and cardio. He notes Smith is a one-dimensional brawler with no wrestling or cardio, and all his wins are early KOs. If Porter survives the first few minutes, he can take Smith down and dominate. He expects Porter to win inside the distance.

Porter inside the distance; live betting after first round if Porter survives
"the play will be Parker Porter"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked May 4, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Parker Porter

Connor picks Porter, noting his good conditioning and boxing, and that Smith lost his pro debut to Chase Sherman. He thinks if Smith doesn't KO Porter early, Porter can outwork him. However, he acknowledges Smith has a real chance to KO Porter.

Smith opened +124, now +149; Porter opened -137, now -167.
"I'm going to take Parker Porter, but there is every chance that he just chaos Parker instantly."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 1, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Braxton Smith

The host picks Braxton Smith by first round knockout. He believes Smith's explosive power will be too much for Parker Porter, who has shown durability issues. He notes Smith's gas tank is a concern but expects an early finish. He recommends the under 1.5 rounds prop as a good bet.

Under 1.5 rounds, Smith by KO round 1
"I'm expecting Braxton again this might end up being his only UFC win but I think he can put that big Power on Parker Porter early here and knock him out give me Braxton by first round knockout but under …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 3, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Parker Porter

Paul agrees, noting Smith's only path is an early KO, but Porter has been knocked out early before. However, he thinks Porter's grappling and experience should prevail. He calls it a 'scraping the bottom of the barrel' heavyweight fight but picks Porter.

"Parker Porter is the pick for me"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 1, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Braxton Smith

The Guru picks Smith as an underdog, citing his KO power and athleticism. He notes Porter is a 'fat old man' who was just knocked out by Justin Tafa. He acknowledges Smith's record may have inaccuracies but believes his explosiveness and kickboxing will overwhelm Porter.

"I'm going with Braxton Smith he's an underdog here I think this is a great Underdog"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked May 4, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Braxton Smith

Zane picks Smith because of his massive power and the fact that Porter has been knocked out early by power punchers. He notes Smith is inexperienced and if he doesn't KO Porter early, he likely loses. But Porter's lack of speed and durability make Smith a reasonable pick.

Smith opened +124, now +149; Porter opened -137, now -167.
"I'm going to pick Braxton Smith as well. The guy punches really hard."
LOSS vs Justin Tafa
KO (punch) R1 1:06 · UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski · Feb 12, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Justin Tafa 1 8 of 16 50% 8 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Parker Porter 0 7 of 16 43% 7 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Justin Tafa 1 8 of 16 50% 8 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Parker Porter 0 7 of 16 43% 7 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Justin Tafa 8 of 16 50% 6 of 13 2 of 3 0 of 0 5 of 12 3 of 4 0 of 0
Parker Porter 7 of 16 43% 5 of 13 0 of 1 2 of 2 7 of 15 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Justin Tafa 8 of 16 50% 6 of 13 2 of 3 0 of 0 5 of 12 3 of 4 0 of 0
Parker Porter 7 of 16 43% 5 of 13 0 of 1 2 of 2 7 of 15 0 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 5, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Parker Porter

Angelo picks Parker Porter, defending him against criticism and highlighting his volume striking and footwork. He notes that Justin Tafa has power and a chin but lacks footwork and grappling. He expects Porter to use movement and volume to outpoint Tafa, though he acknowledges the risk of a Tafa knockout. He has a half-unit bet on Porter at +125 and suggests betting on Tafa by KO and Porter by decision as props.

Bet on Tafa by KO and Porter by decision if plus money
"Parker Porter is the pick half a unit money line bet on him at plus 125"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Feb 6, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Parker Porter

Big Brady calls this a mess of a fight but picks Porter as the minute winner with higher volume and grappling upside. He notes Tafa has power and could knock Porter out, but thinks Porter's cardio and wrestling give him the edge. He predicts a decision win for Porter.

"give me the guy that I feel like and win this fight across 15 minutes give me Parker by by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Parker Porter

Cody picks Porter as a dog, citing Tafa's one-dimensional kickboxing and poor performances against Jared Vanderaa. He notes Porter has multiple paths: wrestling takedowns and top control, or volume striking. He mentions Porter's wins over Josh Parisian and Chase Sherman show he can land heavy volume. He thinks Porter by decision is a good prop at +350.

Porter by decision at +350
"I would take Porter to to drop on what you were saying probably Park reporter by decision"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Feb 10, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

Connor picks Tafa hesitantly, citing his power and athletic potential. He notes that Porter is durable but gets hurt badly in every fight, and Tafa has the power to finish. Connor acknowledges that Porter's pace and volume could overwhelm Tafa if he doesn't land early, but he's willing to take a flyer on Tafa's explosiveness. He also mentions that Tafa has shown flashes of improvement.

"I think i'm gonna take the flyer on justin toffa... I just get the feeling that toffa has the ability to grow by leaps and bounds."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Feb 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Parker Porter

Porter has good footwork, combinations, and a sneaky wrestling game. Tafa has huge power but poor footwork and can be outpointed, as seen against Vandera. Porter can mix in takedowns to control Tafa on the ground. Tafa's takedown defense is untested (only faced two takedown attempts). Porter's durability and cardio should allow him to outwork Tafa over 15 minutes. However, Tafa's power is a constant threat.

"I still think that this is a spot where Parker Porter can go out there and do what he does best makes the martial arts as effortlessly as he does and put together a solid body of work over 15 …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Feb 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Parker Porter

Paul leans toward Porter but is not fully committed. He sees the fight as a low-level heavyweight bout likely going to decision, and considers Porter by decision at +350. He notes Tafa's lack of volume and Porter's ability to outwork him. He may dabble on the decision prop.

Porter by decision at +350
"I can see the argument for Porter... I think this is a low level sloppy heavyweight fight probably goes 15 minutes"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

The MMA Guru picks Justin Tafa over Parker Porter, noting Tafa's power and youth. He believes Tafa will catch Porter in a scrappy fight and finish him by KO at the end of round one. He dismisses Porter's wins as unimpressive and notes his age and damage taken.

first round KO
"I'm gonna go with Justin tafa getting this one done via Chao Parker Porter"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Feb 10, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Parker Porter

Zane picks Porter, citing his consistency and ability to survive early storms. He notes that Porter is a pace fighter who can take a shot and come back, while Tafa is low-output and one-dimensional. Zane acknowledges that Porter will likely get hurt badly, but he trusts Porter's durability and experience to grind out a win. He also mentions that Porter's jab and volume will be key.

"I'll pick parker porter because I don't care that much... I think being a lumbering pace fighter who yes gets hurt but is definitely like... gotten pretty damn good at surviving."
LOSS vs Jailton Almeida
Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 4:35 · UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Vieira · May 21, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jailton Almeida 0 18 of 34 52% 36 of 58 1 of 2 50% 1 0 4:29
Parker Porter 0 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jailton Almeida 0 18 of 34 52% 36 of 58 1 of 2 50% 1 0 4:29
Parker Porter 0 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jailton Almeida 18 of 34 52% 16 of 32 2 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 17 of 33
Parker Porter 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jailton Almeida 18 of 34 52% 16 of 32 2 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 17 of 33
Parker Porter 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 15, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Parker Porter

Angelo picks Parker Porter despite being biased as a friend. He believes Porter's pace, striking volume, and takedown defense will be key. He notes that Almeida is moving up from light heavyweight and has never gone to the third round, while Porter has cardio and heavy hips that make him hard to take down. He expects Porter to stuff takedowns and win a decision.

"i like parker here again he's a friend of mine but i think he can stuff those takedowns stay busy frustrate jonathan almeida and just ride out another decision win"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 17, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Big Brady picks Jailton Almeida to win by first-round TKO, expecting him to take down Parker Porter and finish quickly. He notes Almeida is a beast on the mat with vicious ground-and-pound, but admits there is no footage of his striking. He worries about Almeida's cardio if the fight extends, but believes Almeida will get the job done early. He says it's a sketchy fight and he is not betting it.

first round tko
"almighty is going to finish this guy in the first round so give me all mata to win give me all maybe to win by first round could be a tko could be a submission but he's gonna take down …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked May 18, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Cody likes Almeida's potential but sees red flags: moving up to heavyweight, facing a much larger opponent, and his cardio against a bigger guy. He notes Almeida's impressive finishes but thinks the price is too high. He considers using Almeida in parlays and mentions live betting opportunities if Almeida doesn't finish early.

Parker Porter by decision (+1400), live betting on Porter if Almeida doesn't finish round 1
"i like almeida i do it's just the price tag is you would have to love almeida don't know that i i love him don't even particularly really like him i just see so many red flags here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert picked May 21, 2022 (fight day)

The host discusses the fight but does not make a clear pick. He notes the size difference (41 pounds) and suggests Almeida should use his speed and athleticism to get a knockout rather than grinding for takedowns. He is not betting on Almeida due to the chalk, but he thinks Almeida will likely win. He also mentions that Porter could potentially get a DQ win or upset.

under 1.5 rounds (part of totals parlay)
"i'm not paying the chalk on almeida"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 18, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Paul thinks Almeida is the truth but is priced out. He notes Almeida's size and skills but worries about the weight class change and Porter's volume. He says he'll watch weigh-ins and might consider Porter by decision at +1400 as a small play.

Parker Porter by decision (+1400)
"i like jailton almeida but they're really pricing me out of this situation"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 17, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

The MMA Guru confidently picks Jailton Almeida, believing he will out-grapple Parker Porter. He notes Almeida's size and reach advantage, and thinks he can throw Porter around and get a submission. He predicts a first-round rear-naked choke win for Almeida.

first round submission
"i definitely see him throwing him around ending up on top and potentially getting a rear naked choke win"
WIN vs Alan Baudot
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Hill · Feb 19, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Parker Porter 0 43 of 106 40% 82 of 150 2 of 8 25% 0 0 6:34
Alan Baudot 0 55 of 107 51% 61 of 113 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:24
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Parker Porter 0 12 of 39 30% 29 of 56 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:52
Alan Baudot 0 17 of 32 53% 18 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
2 Parker Porter 0 19 of 39 48% 25 of 45 0 of 4 0% 0 0 1:23
Alan Baudot 0 14 of 32 43% 15 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
3 Parker Porter 0 12 of 28 42% 28 of 49 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:19
Alan Baudot 0 24 of 43 55% 28 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Parker Porter 43 of 106 40% 20 of 80 4 of 4 19 of 22 34 of 94 6 of 7 3 of 5
Alan Baudot 55 of 107 51% 43 of 94 11 of 11 1 of 2 50 of 101 5 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Parker Porter 12 of 39 30% 8 of 35 1 of 1 3 of 3 8 of 34 4 of 5 0 of 0
Alan Baudot 17 of 32 53% 13 of 27 4 of 4 0 of 1 14 of 28 3 of 4 0 of 0
2 Parker Porter 19 of 39 48% 5 of 24 3 of 3 11 of 12 16 of 36 2 of 2 1 of 1
Alan Baudot 14 of 32 43% 12 of 30 2 of 2 0 of 0 13 of 31 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Parker Porter 12 of 28 42% 7 of 21 0 of 0 5 of 7 10 of 24 0 of 0 2 of 4
Alan Baudot 24 of 43 55% 18 of 37 5 of 5 1 of 1 23 of 42 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Parker Porter

Angelo picks Parker Porter confidently, though admits bias as a friend. He highlights Porter's footwork, power, underrated wrestling, and ridiculous volume. He notes Baudot is a competent striker with power but has poor ground game and has never seen a decision. Angelo expects Porter to dominate with wrestling and volume.

"i think parker porter wins this fight he is absolutely my pick he's the better fighter everywhere"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 16, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Parker Porter

Big Brady picks Parker Porter, calling Baudot one of the worst heavyweights. He notes Porter has better cardio and ground game, while Baudot has been finished in all losses and tends to quit. He predicts Porter wins by second or third round knockout.

win by second or third round knockout
"it's gonna be parker porter to win give me park reporter to win by second or third round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Parker Porter

Cody is very confident in Porter, calling him a potential best pick of the week. He highlights Porter's excellent cardio, high volume striking (149 significant strikes in his last fight), and takedown ability. Cody notes that Baudot has no redeeming qualities: poor grappling, no power, and a weak chin. He believes Porter can win wherever the fight goes, either by out-striking or taking Baudot down and smashing him.

"i think he's likely your best pick of the week draftking sportsbook went from minus 255 to plus 250. so"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Feb 17, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Parker Porter

Levi picks Porter, noting that Baudot has a history of quitting (took a knee against Nascimento) and that Porter has heart and toughness. He expects Porter to survive an early storm and take over after the first round. Levi has faded Baudot in both his UFC fights and believes Porter's veteran experience and durability will be key.

first five minutes will be a sweat, after that Porter should take over
"give me parker porter but um first five minutes will be a sweat after that porter should take over"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 17, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Parker Porter

Porter has a clear path to victory: weather Baudot's early storm, then take him down and submit him. Baudot has terrible grappling and gasses in the second round. Porter's submission game is underrated, and Baudot has been submitted by lower-level grapplers. Porter by submission at +700 is the best prop on the card. The fight doesn't go to decision at -200 is also a strong play.

Porter by submission (+700), fight doesn't go to decision (-200), Baudot round 1 (+650)
"park reporter via submission is currently setting up plus 650 plus 700 on a couple spots that's where my degenerate money is going for this fight"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Parker Porter

Paul picks Porter, expressing surprise that the line is only -250 given Baudot's poor performances. He notes that Baudot has been dominated in his UFC fights and lacks power or grappling. Paul thinks Porter's cardio and pace will be too much for Baudot, and that Porter should win comfortably.

"i just don't really see i don't see very much power in his hands he's obviously a horrendous grappler like there's really not too many redeeming qualities for alan beaudo"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Parker Porter

The MMA Guru picks Parker Porter to win by 29-28 decision. He trusts Porter's experience and veteran tricks, noting he has good grappling awareness and toughness. He thinks Alan Baudot may have early success but Porter will wear him down in the later rounds. He also mentions that Baudot won his UFC entry by DQ and has been KO'd before.

decision 29-28
"i'm going with parker porter over alan bedo ... i think the first two rounds are going to be controlled no the first round will be good for for badou the second two rounds porter will start creeping on him …"
WIN vs Chase Sherman
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Cannonier vs. Gastelum · Aug 21, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Parker Porter 0 149 of 278 53% 159 of 294 1 of 8 12% 0 0 2:19
Chase Sherman 0 117 of 249 46% 121 of 253 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Parker Porter 0 21 of 56 37% 30 of 69 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:57
Chase Sherman 0 29 of 59 49% 30 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Parker Porter 0 57 of 105 54% 58 of 107 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:05
Chase Sherman 0 51 of 102 50% 52 of 103 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Parker Porter 0 71 of 117 60% 71 of 118 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:17
Chase Sherman 0 37 of 88 42% 39 of 90 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Parker Porter 149 of 278 53% 116 of 243 17 of 17 16 of 18 141 of 270 7 of 7 1 of 1
Chase Sherman 117 of 249 46% 69 of 199 15 of 17 33 of 33 115 of 247 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Parker Porter 21 of 56 37% 14 of 47 1 of 1 6 of 8 19 of 54 1 of 1 1 of 1
Chase Sherman 29 of 59 49% 20 of 50 1 of 1 8 of 8 29 of 59 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Parker Porter 57 of 105 54% 48 of 96 6 of 6 3 of 3 55 of 103 2 of 2 0 of 0
Chase Sherman 51 of 102 50% 27 of 77 11 of 12 13 of 13 50 of 101 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Parker Porter 71 of 117 60% 54 of 100 10 of 10 7 of 7 67 of 113 4 of 4 0 of 0
Chase Sherman 37 of 88 42% 22 of 72 3 of 4 12 of 12 36 of 87 1 of 1 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 17, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Chase Sherman

Big Brady picks Chase Sherman confidently, citing his better competition, toughness, and power. He notes Porter is very hittable and has been finished in all his losses. Sherman has a 93% finish rate, all by knockout. He predicts a second-round knockout.

second round knockout
"i like chase sherman here quite a bit i don't really think parker porter is ufc caliber"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 18, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Chase Sherman

Cody picks Sherman, citing his athleticism, leg kicks, and volume. He notes Sherman's improved game since his first UFC stint and believes he has a clear advantage. He mentions Sherman's back issues and past PED suspension but still favors him.

"i think chase has a massive athleticism advantage in this spot i think he's going to really uh go on to those uh the the light kicks are going to be key to him"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Aug 18, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Parker Porter

Porter has good durability, leg kicks, and clinch work. Sherman's volume drops in later rounds, while Porter maintains his pace. If Porter survives the first round, he can take over. I'm picking Porter by decision, but I'm hesitant as some respected people are on Sherman.

over 1.5 rounds (-165); Porter by decision (+425)
"i like porter here quarterback decision laugh at me all you want but i think he has the chops to go out there and uh definitely not look like a plus 165"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Aug 18, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Parker Porter

Paul leans toward Porter as a live underdog, highlighting his durability, leg kicks, and pressure. He questions Sherman's cardio and mental toughness, noting Sherman looked defeated against Arlovski. He sees Porter's ability to push pace and land leg kicks as key, but worries about Porter's weight cut and shape.

Fight goes over 1.5 rounds (-165); fight goes the distance (+155)
"i honestly see the fight going over one and a half minus 165 and i think fight goes the distance at plus 155 sounds crazy not crazy at all"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Chase Sherman

The MMA Guru picks Chase Sherman to win by TKO. He notes Sherman is bigger, has good cardio, and a reach advantage. He expects Sherman to use elbows against the cage on the shorter Porter. He acknowledges Porter's win over Josh Parisian but considers it unimpressive.

TKO by elbows against the cage
"i'm gonna go chase sherman good cardio he's a massive guy for the heavyweight division much bigger than parker porter"
WIN vs Josh Parisian
Decision (unanimous) (30–26, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Smith vs. Clark · Nov 28, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Parker Porter 0 114 of 226 50% 123 of 237 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:28
Josh Parisian 0 126 of 228 55% 164 of 275 2 of 4 50% 1 0 4:27
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Parker Porter 0 56 of 115 48% 61 of 122 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Josh Parisian 0 46 of 92 50% 57 of 104 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:10
2 Parker Porter 0 24 of 43 55% 27 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Josh Parisian 0 30 of 46 65% 54 of 78 1 of 1 100% 1 0 3:12
3 Parker Porter 0 34 of 68 50% 35 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:26
Josh Parisian 0 50 of 90 55% 53 of 93 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:05
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Parker Porter 114 of 226 50% 71 of 173 35 of 44 8 of 9 89 of 190 25 of 36 0 of 0
Josh Parisian 126 of 228 55% 90 of 190 16 of 18 20 of 20 105 of 198 20 of 27 1 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Parker Porter 56 of 115 48% 38 of 92 18 of 22 0 of 1 38 of 89 18 of 26 0 of 0
Josh Parisian 46 of 92 50% 33 of 77 10 of 12 3 of 3 33 of 77 13 of 15 0 of 0
2 Parker Porter 24 of 43 55% 11 of 30 9 of 9 4 of 4 19 of 37 5 of 6 0 of 0
Josh Parisian 30 of 46 65% 18 of 34 4 of 4 8 of 8 25 of 35 4 of 8 1 of 3
3 Parker Porter 34 of 68 50% 22 of 51 8 of 13 4 of 4 32 of 64 2 of 4 0 of 0
Josh Parisian 50 of 90 55% 39 of 79 2 of 2 9 of 9 47 of 86 3 of 4 0 of 0
LOSS vs Chris Daukaus
TKO (punches and knee) R1 4:28 · UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3 · Aug 15, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Chris Daukaus 2 37 of 59 62% 45 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:35
Parker Porter 0 17 of 52 32% 18 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Chris Daukaus 2 37 of 59 62% 45 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:35
Parker Porter 0 17 of 52 32% 18 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Chris Daukaus 37 of 59 62% 29 of 49 4 of 6 4 of 4 29 of 50 6 of 7 2 of 2
Parker Porter 17 of 52 32% 12 of 44 1 of 4 4 of 4 14 of 47 3 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Chris Daukaus 37 of 59 62% 29 of 49 4 of 6 4 of 4 29 of 50 6 of 7 2 of 2
Parker Porter 17 of 52 32% 12 of 44 1 of 4 4 of 4 14 of 47 3 of 5 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 12, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Chris Daukaus

Big Brady thinks Chris Daukaus is the more skilled striker and hits harder. He criticizes Parker Porter's lack of fight shape and believes Daukaus will knock him out in the first round. He notes both have been knocked out before but favors Daukaus' power.

first round knockout
"i'm going to pick christopher dawkins to get a first round knockout"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Parker Porter

Daniel Levi picks Parker Porter. He notes that Chris Daukaus is not as talented as his brother Kyle, and that Porter is the bigger, more physical fighter. He expects Porter to use his size and power to get takedowns and control the fight. He also mentions that Daukaus has been knocked out before and that Porter's game plan is straightforward.

Porter by decision or TKO; Daukaus is the less talented brother; Porter's size advantage
"i'm gonna go with parker porter and i hope he gets on the mic and calls out jon jones"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 9, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Parker Porter

The MMA Guru picks Parker Porter based on experience, noting that Porter has fought higher-level competition outside the UFC, including Gabriel Gonzaga. He dismisses both fighters as unskilled but believes Porter's experience on short notice gives him the edge.

"i'm gonna be going with parker porter he's got more experience and i just think that's going to be a good factor to have on a short notice heavyweight bout"
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 5, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Parker Porter

Angelo picks Parker Porter, defending him against criticism and highlighting his volume striking and footwork. He notes that Justin Tafa has power and a chin but lacks footwork and grappling. He expects Porter to use movement and volume to outpoint Tafa, though he acknowledges the risk of a Tafa knockout. He has a half-unit bet on Porter at +125 and suggests betting on Tafa by KO and Porter by decision as props.

Bet on Tafa by KO and Porter by decision if plus money
"Parker Porter is the pick half a unit money line bet on him at plus 125"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Feb 6, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Parker Porter

Big Brady calls this a mess of a fight but picks Porter as the minute winner with higher volume and grappling upside. He notes Tafa has power and could knock Porter out, but thinks Porter's cardio and wrestling give him the edge. He predicts a decision win for Porter.

"give me the guy that I feel like and win this fight across 15 minutes give me Parker by by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Parker Porter

Cody picks Porter as a dog, citing Tafa's one-dimensional kickboxing and poor performances against Jared Vanderaa. He notes Porter has multiple paths: wrestling takedowns and top control, or volume striking. He mentions Porter's wins over Josh Parisian and Chase Sherman show he can land heavy volume. He thinks Porter by decision is a good prop at +350.

Porter by decision at +350
"I would take Porter to to drop on what you were saying probably Park reporter by decision"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Feb 10, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

Connor picks Tafa hesitantly, citing his power and athletic potential. He notes that Porter is durable but gets hurt badly in every fight, and Tafa has the power to finish. Connor acknowledges that Porter's pace and volume could overwhelm Tafa if he doesn't land early, but he's willing to take a flyer on Tafa's explosiveness. He also mentions that Tafa has shown flashes of improvement.

"I think i'm gonna take the flyer on justin toffa... I just get the feeling that toffa has the ability to grow by leaps and bounds."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Feb 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Parker Porter

Porter has good footwork, combinations, and a sneaky wrestling game. Tafa has huge power but poor footwork and can be outpointed, as seen against Vandera. Porter can mix in takedowns to control Tafa on the ground. Tafa's takedown defense is untested (only faced two takedown attempts). Porter's durability and cardio should allow him to outwork Tafa over 15 minutes. However, Tafa's power is a constant threat.

"I still think that this is a spot where Parker Porter can go out there and do what he does best makes the martial arts as effortlessly as he does and put together a solid body of work over 15 minutes and win a decision victory"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Feb 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Parker Porter

Paul leans toward Porter but is not fully committed. He sees the fight as a low-level heavyweight bout likely going to decision, and considers Porter by decision at +350. He notes Tafa's lack of volume and Porter's ability to outwork him. He may dabble on the decision prop.

Porter by decision at +350
"I can see the argument for Porter... I think this is a low level sloppy heavyweight fight probably goes 15 minutes"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

The MMA Guru picks Justin Tafa over Parker Porter, noting Tafa's power and youth. He believes Tafa will catch Porter in a scrappy fight and finish him by KO at the end of round one. He dismisses Porter's wins as unimpressive and notes his age and damage taken.

first round KO
"I'm gonna go with Justin tafa getting this one done via Chao Parker Porter"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Feb 10, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Parker Porter

Zane picks Porter, citing his consistency and ability to survive early storms. He notes that Porter is a pace fighter who can take a shot and come back, while Tafa is low-output and one-dimensional. Zane acknowledges that Porter will likely get hurt badly, but he trusts Porter's durability and experience to grind out a win. He also mentions that Porter's jab and volume will be key.

"I'll pick parker porter because I don't care that much... I think being a lumbering pace fighter who yes gets hurt but is definitely like... gotten pretty damn good at surviving."