UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · Jul 27, 2024 · Heavyweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 Next Fight
Age 30
Height 6' 4"
Reach 79.0"
Weight 265 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 34
Height 6' 3"
Reach 78"
Weight 236 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Mick Parkin
4.7 SLpM
50.0% Str. Acc.
4.13 SApM
58.0% Str. Def.
1.38 TD Avg
46.0% TD Acc.
50.0% TD Def.
0.2 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Łukasz Brzeski
4.9 SLpM
50.0% Str. Acc.
3.65 SApM
54.0% Str. Def.
0.41 TD Avg
33.0% TD Acc.
35.0% TD Def.
0.4 Sub. Avg
Mick Parkin - Fight History
LOSS vs Marcin Tybura
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · Mar 22, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marcin Tybura 0 61 of 155 39% 64 of 158 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:01
Mick Parkin 0 60 of 145 41% 102 of 192 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:43
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marcin Tybura 0 21 of 56 37% 21 of 56 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:19
Mick Parkin 0 23 of 45 51% 24 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
2 Marcin Tybura 0 7 of 20 35% 10 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:17
Mick Parkin 0 15 of 38 39% 41 of 69 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:24
3 Marcin Tybura 0 33 of 79 41% 33 of 79 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:25
Mick Parkin 0 22 of 62 35% 37 of 77 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marcin Tybura 61 of 155 39% 28 of 110 29 of 40 4 of 5 60 of 151 1 of 4 0 of 0
Mick Parkin 60 of 145 41% 47 of 130 1 of 2 12 of 13 49 of 118 2 of 2 9 of 25
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marcin Tybura 21 of 56 37% 4 of 34 15 of 20 2 of 2 21 of 56 0 of 0 0 of 0
Mick Parkin 23 of 45 51% 13 of 34 1 of 1 9 of 10 22 of 44 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Marcin Tybura 7 of 20 35% 4 of 15 3 of 5 0 of 0 7 of 19 0 of 1 0 of 0
Mick Parkin 15 of 38 39% 15 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0 5 of 12 1 of 1 9 of 25
3 Marcin Tybura 33 of 79 41% 20 of 61 11 of 15 2 of 3 32 of 76 1 of 3 0 of 0
Mick Parkin 22 of 62 35% 19 of 58 0 of 1 3 of 3 22 of 62 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Mar 16, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Mick Parkin

Angelo picks Mick Parkin, going against his bias for wrestlers. He notes Tybura's chin is fading after being wobbled in recent fights, but questions whether Parkin has one-punch knockout power. He thinks if Tybura can't get takedowns, he's in trouble, and Parkin's pace and control could be the difference. He admits it's a gut pick.

"I'm going to go with my gut... and I'm picking Mick Parkin"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 18, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Marcin Tybura

Brady is taking the underdog Tybura, questioning what a Mick Parkin win looks like. He notes Parkin's wins are against low-level competition and that he was outlanded by Kyle Machado. Brady thinks Tybura can win a close fight on the feet or dominate on top, and predicts a decision win.

Tybura by decision
"I'm going to take the underdog here and Marchin tabber to win this fight and I'm going to take him to win this fight by decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Mick Parkin

The host notes that the UFC has brought Parkin along slowly, and now he faces a tough veteran. Parkin's athletic advantages in striking and grappling will be too much for the aging Tybura, leading to a late finish or decision win.

finish late in the fight or decision
"I think Parkin's athletic advantages here from his striking advantage to even some grappling that people have yet to see will be too much for the aging Tyboro to deal with."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Mick Parkin

The Guru is confident in Mick Parkin, praising his conditioning, patience, and well-rounded game. He notes that Tybura has beaten many heavyweights who rush for a finish, but Parkin is patient and won't make that mistake. He expects Parkin to chop at the legs, stay composed, and win a 29-28 decision, as he has seen Parkin answer grappling questions that other Tybura opponents could not.

decision 29-28
"I'm going with Mick Parkin guys Mick Parkin's going to get this one done"
KO (punches) R1 3:23 · UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · Jul 27, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mick Parkin 1 34 of 52 65% 34 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Łukasz Brzeski 0 24 of 42 57% 26 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mick Parkin 1 34 of 52 65% 34 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Łukasz Brzeski 0 24 of 42 57% 26 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mick Parkin 34 of 52 65% 29 of 46 0 of 1 5 of 5 28 of 44 3 of 4 3 of 4
Łukasz Brzeski 24 of 42 57% 12 of 28 3 of 5 9 of 9 20 of 38 4 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mick Parkin 34 of 52 65% 29 of 46 0 of 1 5 of 5 28 of 44 3 of 4 3 of 4
Łukasz Brzeski 24 of 42 57% 12 of 28 3 of 5 9 of 9 20 of 38 4 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Mick Parkin

Angelo picks Mick Parkin as one of the most confident picks on the card, noting that Parkin is better everywhere and will control the pace. He expects Parkin's odds to balloon to -400 by fight night. Angelo admits the fight will be boring but is confident in Parkin's win.

"Mick Parkin one of the most confident picks on the card this fight's going to suck though"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Mick Parkin

Cody picks Mick Parkin, citing his youth, cardio, and improving wrestling. He notes that Łukasz Brzeski has poor grappling and has been taken down repeatedly. Cody believes Parkin can use his wrestling to control the fight and win by decision, possibly with a late submission.

"Give me Mick parin again probably by decision but who knows man maybe you see a new wrinkle to his game and he submits brusi late in the fight."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Mick Parkin

Daniel thinks Mick Parkin is technical and well-rounded, while Łukasz Brzeski has been fed to prospects and lost. He expects Parkin to outwork Brzeski.

"I'm gonna go with Mick Park and that come out here here and uh outwork him like all these other guys have"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Mick Parkin

Paul also picks Parkin, noting that Brzeski's takedown defense is nonexistent and that Parkin can use his size and wrestling to grind out a win. He mentions that Parkin trains with Tom Aspinall and has a significant weight advantage. Paul expects Parkin to win, possibly by decision.

"Parkin will have like a at least a 30 pound on fighting I probably like a 40 pound advantage over breski... make it ugly."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 22, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Mick Parkin

The MMA Guru picks Mick Parkin, expecting him to chew up Łukasz Brzeski's legs and mix in grappling when needed. He praises Parkin's underrated grappling and notes that Brzeski has had poor performances. The Guru believes Parkin is better than fighters like Karl Williams, who easily beat Brzeski. Training with Tom Aspinall is seen as a plus for Parkin's improvement. He predicts Parkin will win, possibly by decision or TKO.

"Michael Parkin is going to beat up on Lucas berski chew up his legs mix in the grappling when he needs to as well because his grappling is really underrated"
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Ribas vs. Namajunas · Mar 23, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mick Parkin 0 57 of 167 34% 57 of 168 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Mohammed Usman 0 72 of 150 48% 72 of 150 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mick Parkin 0 15 of 48 31% 15 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Mohammed Usman 0 16 of 40 40% 16 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Mick Parkin 0 18 of 51 35% 18 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Mohammed Usman 0 20 of 41 48% 20 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Mick Parkin 0 24 of 68 35% 24 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Mohammed Usman 0 36 of 69 52% 36 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mick Parkin 57 of 167 34% 26 of 114 30 of 52 1 of 1 57 of 167 0 of 0 0 of 0
Mohammed Usman 72 of 150 48% 37 of 109 4 of 4 31 of 37 71 of 149 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mick Parkin 15 of 48 31% 11 of 39 4 of 9 0 of 0 15 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
Mohammed Usman 16 of 40 40% 6 of 27 0 of 0 10 of 13 16 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Mick Parkin 18 of 51 35% 5 of 32 12 of 18 1 of 1 18 of 51 0 of 0 0 of 0
Mohammed Usman 20 of 41 48% 9 of 27 2 of 2 9 of 12 20 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Mick Parkin 24 of 68 35% 10 of 43 14 of 25 0 of 0 24 of 68 0 of 0 0 of 0
Mohammed Usman 36 of 69 52% 22 of 55 2 of 2 12 of 12 35 of 68 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 17, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Mick Parkin

Angelo picks Mick Parkin because he is the more technical fighter with sharper striking and slightly better takedowns. He expects a boring, slow, sloppy heavyweight decision, possibly with a stoppage from Parkin via takedown and ground control. He will stay away from betting unless the over 1.5 rounds line is available, which he would hammer.

over 1.5 rounds if available
"Mick is going to be the pick here I'm going to stay away from this unless we get a very lucky one and a half round line hopefully The Bookies say ah they're heavyweights one and a half then we'll …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Mick Parkin

Big Brady picks Mick Parkin, believing the fight will primarily be standing. He notes Parkin's striking looked good in his debut but was inconsistent against Kyle Machado. He thinks Parkin will land more strikes at range, while Usman has low volume and relies on power. Brady doubts Usman can knock out Parkin and expects a decision win for Parkin.

"I'm more so on the mick Parkin side... I'm taking Mick Park in here I'm taking to win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 21, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Mick Parkin

Cody picks Parkin, citing his size, mobility, and superior boxing. He criticizes Usman's low output and lack of power. Cody believes Parkin will outwork Usman and win a decision.

"Mick Parkin is going to find a way to just at work him."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Mar 20, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Mohammed Usman

Daniel Vreeland leans toward Mohammed Usman, admiring his ability to find a way to win even in ugly fights. He notes Usman has power and wrestling, and can take Parkin down. He thinks Parkin is the cleaner striker but Usman's physicality and grit could carry him.

"I'm gonna lean towards the dog here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Mick Parkin

Parkin has a great gas tank for a heavyweight, good output, and excellent scrambling ability. He will pressure Usman, who has a low-volume kickboxing style and tends to slow down late. Parkin can win by decision or even snatch a late submission, as Usman has been submitted before. Usman's only path is a flash KO, but Parkin should control the fight.

Round 3 submission at +3000
"I think Parkin is absolutely capable of doing that once again here and I think that we can see Parkin either cruise to a decision or I think he actually does snatch up a submission late in this fight which …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 21, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Mick Parkin

Paul picks Parkin, noting his training with Tom Aspinall and his ability to go the distance. He acknowledges the line movement toward Usman but still favors Parkin's overall game.

"Parkin Parkin is the pick for me as well."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Mohammed Usman

The MMA Guru picks Mohammed Usman over Mick Parkin, citing Parkin's poor last performance where he arguably lost and looked bad. He believes Usman's athleticism and wrestling will wear on Parkin as the fight goes on, with Usman landing takedowns in rounds two and three. He notes Parkin's eye swelling in his last fight and thinks Usman's power and pressure will be too much. He predicts a decision win for Usman.

decision win
"I'm actually gonna go with Muhammad Usman over Mick Parkin... I think mosman's going to be able to wear on Mick Parkin as the fight goes on... by decision"
WIN vs Caio Machado
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig · Nov 18, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mick Parkin 0 39 of 98 39% 69 of 139 3 of 10 30% 0 1 6:23
Caio Machado 0 76 of 132 57% 103 of 164 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:20
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mick Parkin 0 7 of 22 31% 11 of 30 2 of 4 50% 0 0 2:45
Caio Machado 0 24 of 43 55% 34 of 54 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Mick Parkin 0 9 of 20 45% 35 of 53 1 of 3 33% 0 1 3:32
Caio Machado 0 17 of 21 80% 34 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
3 Mick Parkin 0 23 of 56 41% 23 of 56 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:06
Caio Machado 0 35 of 68 51% 35 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mick Parkin 39 of 98 39% 33 of 91 2 of 3 4 of 4 34 of 92 3 of 3 2 of 3
Caio Machado 76 of 132 57% 41 of 95 24 of 26 11 of 11 68 of 121 6 of 9 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mick Parkin 7 of 22 31% 4 of 19 1 of 1 2 of 2 7 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
Caio Machado 24 of 43 55% 8 of 27 10 of 10 6 of 6 21 of 39 3 of 4 0 of 0
2 Mick Parkin 9 of 20 45% 9 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0 6 of 16 1 of 1 2 of 3
Caio Machado 17 of 21 80% 14 of 17 1 of 2 2 of 2 12 of 16 3 of 3 2 of 2
3 Mick Parkin 23 of 56 41% 20 of 52 1 of 2 2 of 2 21 of 54 2 of 2 0 of 0
Caio Machado 35 of 68 51% 19 of 51 13 of 14 3 of 3 35 of 66 0 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Nov 12, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Mick Parkin

Angelo has a slight lean towards Mick Parkin because he can wrestle if needed, but he is very hesitant due to the wide odds (-330) and Parkin's unproven status. He notes Machado has more power and volume, and that the odds scare him. He advises passing or taking the underdog.

Odds comment: odds are way too wide, minus 330; suggests going underdog or passing
"the slightest of slight slight leans probably towards Mick because he can wrestle if he needs to but unproven and I can't spend my money on that"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Nov 17, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Mick Parkin

Big Brady thinks Parkin will stick to the outside and be the better striker across 15 minutes, similar to his fight against Jamal Pogues. He finds the line a bit crazy but believes Parkin is the better fighter and should win a very uneventful heavyweight decision. He's not fully convinced in Parkin yet but expects him to get the job done.

"I do think he should go out there and be able to to beat Kyle Machado here I think he's the better fighter and I think he should win this across three rounds"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Nov 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Mick Parkin

Cody picks Mick Parkin, noting his better striking and wrestling. He acknowledges the heavy price but believes Parkin is more well-rounded. He mentions Machado's low level of competition and suspect cardio. Cody thinks Parkin can win by decision or TKO.

"I think Parkin's the more well-rounded guy he's got some better skills everywhere"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 17, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Mick Parkin

Parkin is a well-rounded heavyweight prospect with good striking output and grappling. He can win on the feet with volume or take the fight to the ground and grind out Machado. Machado has faced low-level competition and has been in trouble before. Parkin wins convincingly by decision, and over 1.5 rounds is a good prop.

over 1.5 rounds
"I think he wins this fight pretty uh convincingly and I think he gets it done by decision over one and a half not too bad of a line either"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Nov 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Mick Parkin

Paul picks Parkin but is not enthusiastic due to the price. He notes Machado's weak competition and Parkin's improvement. Paul thinks Parkin is better everywhere but the line is too high for comfort.

"I think Parkin's the more well-rounded guy"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Mick Parkin

The MMA Guru picks Mick Parkin to win by TKO in round two. He praises Parkin's boxing and forward pressure, noting his easy win over Jamal Pogues. He criticizes Machado's Contender Series performance against a passive opponent and believes Parkin's crisp boxing and calf kicks will overwhelm Machado. He also mentions Parkin trains with Tom Aspinall.

TKO round two
"I'm going to go Mick Parkin TKO round two I reckon is what's going to happen here."
WIN vs Jamal Pogues
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura · Jul 22, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mick Parkin 0 95 of 156 60% 98 of 159 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jamal Pogues 0 36 of 135 26% 37 of 136 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:17
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mick Parkin 0 32 of 50 64% 32 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jamal Pogues 0 21 of 79 26% 22 of 80 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:16
2 Mick Parkin 0 19 of 34 55% 22 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jamal Pogues 0 7 of 30 23% 7 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:56
3 Mick Parkin 0 44 of 72 61% 44 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jamal Pogues 0 8 of 26 30% 8 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mick Parkin 95 of 156 60% 37 of 94 16 of 20 42 of 42 92 of 151 3 of 5 0 of 0
Jamal Pogues 36 of 135 26% 22 of 119 4 of 6 10 of 10 34 of 132 2 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mick Parkin 32 of 50 64% 12 of 30 2 of 2 18 of 18 32 of 48 0 of 2 0 of 0
Jamal Pogues 21 of 79 26% 13 of 71 1 of 1 7 of 7 20 of 78 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Mick Parkin 19 of 34 55% 5 of 17 3 of 6 11 of 11 17 of 32 2 of 2 0 of 0
Jamal Pogues 7 of 30 23% 5 of 27 1 of 2 1 of 1 6 of 28 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 Mick Parkin 44 of 72 61% 20 of 47 11 of 12 13 of 13 43 of 71 1 of 1 0 of 0
Jamal Pogues 8 of 26 30% 4 of 21 2 of 3 2 of 2 8 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Jul 16, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Jamal Pogues

Angelo picks Jamal Pogues because he is faster and busier, and his offensive wrestling should be effective. However, he is concerned about Pogues' takedown defense and Mick Parkin's ability to get on top. He fades betting on this fight due to the uncertainty.

"I am going to pick Jamal here but I'm gonna fade this with bets because I don't trust the takedown defense of Jamal Pogues"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jul 18, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Mick Parkin

Big Brady picks Mick Parkin to finish Jamal Pogues, but admits it's a shot in the dark. He notes Parkin is untested but looks good against weak competition and trains with high-level guys like Tom Aspinall. He is not high on Pogues, who he thinks looked out of shape in his last fight. He says Parkin could be the real deal or a fraud.

by knockout
"give me parking to win this fight I'm gonna say he finishes Pogues at some point whether it's a knockout whether it's a submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 19, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jamal Pogues

Cody picks Pogues, citing his experience and better competition. He notes Parkin has fought low-level opponents and his cardio is unknown. He thinks Pogues's wrestling and top control will be enough to win a decision.

"it's Pogues pretty clearly here"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jul 20, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jamal Pogues

Daniel picks Jamal Pogues, citing his athleticism and takedown ability, which he showed in his UFC debut against Josh Parisian. He acknowledges Mick Parkin has handled lower-level competition but thinks Pogues' experience and wrestling will be the difference. He admits he has been waiting to fade Pogues but was impressed by his debut. He is not confident enough to bet it, saying 'no conviction here'.

Daniel says he is not betting this fight. He mentions the line: Pogues -160, Parkin +140.
"I'm gonna pick him for that reason but I'm not betting it so you know no no conviction here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Mick Parkin

The host picks Mick Parkin as a dog, citing his athleticism, scrambling, striking speed, and overall grappling. He believes Parkin's cardio and ability to reverse positions will be key as the fight goes longer. He predicts Parkin wins inside the distance and calls him one of the better underdogs on the card.

inside the distance
"give me parking and park into an inside the distance and probably one of the better underdogs on the card in my opinion"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 19, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jamal Pogues

Paul initially considered Parkin as a dog but settled on Pogues due to experience. He thinks Pogues's wrestling and top control will wear down Parkin, who has never fought past the first round. He notes Pogues's low volume but expects him to win.

"I ended up just going towards Jamal Pogues who I think he's got a lot more experience is the better fighter"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Mick Parkin

The MMA Guru picks Mick Parkin as an underdog, initially unsure but swayed by Jamal Pogues' unimpressive performance against Josh Parisian. He notes Parkin's training with Tom Aspinall and good get-ups, and believes Parkin's youth and strength will allow him to get back up from takedowns. The Guru expects Parkin to be tougher in the pocket and win a decision.

"I'm actually going to go with Mick Parkin as an underdog here"
Łukasz Brzeski - Fight History
LOSS vs Ryan Spann
Submission R1 2:47 · UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · Jul 19, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ryan Spann 0 8 of 19 42% 8 of 19 1 of 1 100% 2 0 2:14
Łukasz Brzeski 0 5 of 8 62% 23 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ryan Spann 0 8 of 19 42% 8 of 19 1 of 1 100% 2 0 2:14
Łukasz Brzeski 0 5 of 8 62% 23 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ryan Spann 8 of 19 42% 8 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 10 0 of 0 6 of 9
Łukasz Brzeski 5 of 8 62% 1 of 4 0 of 0 4 of 4 5 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ryan Spann 8 of 19 42% 8 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 10 0 of 0 6 of 9
Łukasz Brzeski 5 of 8 62% 1 of 4 0 of 0 4 of 4 5 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 13, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

Angelo picks Ryan Spann to win, noting his power, submissions, and wrestling. He compares Brzeski to Austin Lane as a finishable opponent. However, he expresses concern about Spann's heavyweight debut where he looked out of shape and not serious, making the -225 price a bit tricky.

"Ryan Span should win this fight. Ryan Span is going to be the pick."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jul 15, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

Big Brady picks Ryan Spann but expresses concern about Spann's inconsistency and motivation. He notes Spann looked terrible at heavyweight and hasn't posted training content. However, he believes Brzeski is not UFC caliber and Spann should win by first-round knockout if he shows up.

Spann by first round knockout
"I have to take Ryan Span. There's no way I'm ever picking Lucas Presky to win a UFC fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Jul 16, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

The host thinks Spann will get his first heavyweight win but expects Brzeski to make it more difficult than the odds indicate. He predicts Spann finds the finish inside the distance, but the hesitation suggests some doubt about the ease of victory.

finish inside the distance
"I think Span ends up finding the finish inside the distance."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Łukasz Brzeski

The MMA Guru picks Łukasz Brzeski over Ryan Spann, citing Spann's low fight IQ and poor performance against Anthony Smith. He notes that Brzeski has experience in the cage and went to a decision with Volkan Oezdemir, which is respectable. The Guru also mentions that Brzeski is likely taller than Spann despite the listed height difference. He cannot trust Spann after his last performance and believes Brzeski will win.

"I'm going to go with Berserki um or however you pronounce his name."
TKO (punches) R1 4:51 · UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · Dec 07, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kennedy Nzechukwu 1 29 of 70 41% 29 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Łukasz Brzeski 0 32 of 69 46% 32 of 69 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kennedy Nzechukwu 1 29 of 70 41% 29 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Łukasz Brzeski 0 32 of 69 46% 32 of 69 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kennedy Nzechukwu 29 of 70 41% 19 of 55 10 of 13 0 of 2 26 of 67 0 of 0 3 of 3
Łukasz Brzeski 32 of 69 46% 16 of 50 6 of 9 10 of 10 32 of 69 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kennedy Nzechukwu 29 of 70 41% 19 of 55 10 of 13 0 of 2 26 of 67 0 of 0 3 of 3
Łukasz Brzeski 32 of 69 46% 16 of 50 6 of 9 10 of 10 32 of 69 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2024 (7 days before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

Angelo picks Kennedy Nzechukwu, noting he is a massive heavyweight with an 83-inch reach, decent takedown defense, and power. He believes Nzechukwu's physicality and power will overwhelm Brzeski, who is chinny and coming off a knockout loss. Angelo mentions Nzechukwu is not a true heavyweight but looked fine in his last fight. He considers the odds of -500 fair and might include Nzechukwu in a parlay.

Might throw in a parlay
"Kennedy should win here... minus 500 seems fair to me I might honestly throw that in a parlay"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

Cody picks Nzechukwu, citing his size, reach, and power advantage. He notes Brzeski's poor record and suspect chin. He expects Nzechukwu to win by knockout, though he acknowledges heavyweight volatility.

"I think Kennedy kills him... he goes out there and romps him."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

Connor picks Nzechukwu confidently, noting that Brzeski cannot take shots and has low output. He points out that Nzechukwu is huge and can build into a fight, and that Brzeski does not have the power or volume to hurt him early. Connor believes Nzechukwu's size and durability will be too much for Brzeski.

Connor says the odds are too wide but Brzeski is not good, so it doesn't matter.
"I don't think it's in such a cool even on a bad night... I think he can handle that."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

Daniel picks Nzechukwu, citing his size and skill advantage at heavyweight. He believes Nzechukwu's reach and southpaw stance will be key, and expects a knockout given Brzeski's recent losses. He notes Nzechukwu's improved durability without the weight cut.

by KO
"I'm going to go Kennedy and Zetu to win the first fight of the night."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

Nzechukwu is never really super reliable as a -500 favorite, but I expect him to touch up Brzeski from distance and eventually open up a knockout opportunity for himself in the second or third round.

knockout in rounds 2-3
"I expect him to touch up dry from distance and eventually open up a knockout opportunity for himself in the second or third round"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

Paul picks Nzechukwu, citing his physical advantages and Brzeski's lack of skills. He notes Nzechukwu's move to heavyweight and improved comfort. He expects a dominant win, but warns against heavy betting due to heavyweight unpredictability.

"Kennedy Nzechukwu... I think he goes out there and romps him."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

The MMA Guru picks Kennedy Nzechukwu, citing his size, reach advantage, and skill difference on the feet. He thinks Nzechukwu will be bigger and more skilled than Brzeski, who is a smaller heavyweight. He believes Nzechukwu will win and could go far in the division.

"I'm going with Kennedy as a chukwu this was supposed to be someone called talison toera versus Lucas Bersy however Kennedy Nuku steps in on short note"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

Zane agrees, picking Nzechukwu. He notes that Brzeski is a low-output volume fighter who cannot take shots, and that Nzechukwu is a giant who can come back into fights. Zane believes Brzeski will not be able to do enough damage to stop Nzechukwu from finding his rhythm.

"Agreed that's really it."
LOSS vs Mick Parkin
KO (punches) R1 3:23 · UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · Jul 27, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mick Parkin 1 34 of 52 65% 34 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Łukasz Brzeski 0 24 of 42 57% 26 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mick Parkin 1 34 of 52 65% 34 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Łukasz Brzeski 0 24 of 42 57% 26 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mick Parkin 34 of 52 65% 29 of 46 0 of 1 5 of 5 28 of 44 3 of 4 3 of 4
Łukasz Brzeski 24 of 42 57% 12 of 28 3 of 5 9 of 9 20 of 38 4 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mick Parkin 34 of 52 65% 29 of 46 0 of 1 5 of 5 28 of 44 3 of 4 3 of 4
Łukasz Brzeski 24 of 42 57% 12 of 28 3 of 5 9 of 9 20 of 38 4 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Mick Parkin

Angelo picks Mick Parkin as one of the most confident picks on the card, noting that Parkin is better everywhere and will control the pace. He expects Parkin's odds to balloon to -400 by fight night. Angelo admits the fight will be boring but is confident in Parkin's win.

"Mick Parkin one of the most confident picks on the card this fight's going to suck though"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Mick Parkin

Cody picks Mick Parkin, citing his youth, cardio, and improving wrestling. He notes that Łukasz Brzeski has poor grappling and has been taken down repeatedly. Cody believes Parkin can use his wrestling to control the fight and win by decision, possibly with a late submission.

"Give me Mick parin again probably by decision but who knows man maybe you see a new wrinkle to his game and he submits brusi late in the fight."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Mick Parkin

Daniel thinks Mick Parkin is technical and well-rounded, while Łukasz Brzeski has been fed to prospects and lost. He expects Parkin to outwork Brzeski.

"I'm gonna go with Mick Park and that come out here here and uh outwork him like all these other guys have"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Mick Parkin

Paul also picks Parkin, noting that Brzeski's takedown defense is nonexistent and that Parkin can use his size and wrestling to grind out a win. He mentions that Parkin trains with Tom Aspinall and has a significant weight advantage. Paul expects Parkin to win, possibly by decision.

"Parkin will have like a at least a 30 pound on fighting I probably like a 40 pound advantage over breski... make it ugly."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 22, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Mick Parkin

The MMA Guru picks Mick Parkin, expecting him to chew up Łukasz Brzeski's legs and mix in grappling when needed. He praises Parkin's underrated grappling and notes that Brzeski has had poor performances. The Guru believes Parkin is better than fighters like Karl Williams, who easily beat Brzeski. Training with Tom Aspinall is seen as a plus for Parkin's improvement. He predicts Parkin will win, possibly by decision or TKO.

"Michael Parkin is going to beat up on Lucas berski chew up his legs mix in the grappling when he needs to as well because his grappling is really underrated"
WIN vs Valter Walker
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis 2 · Apr 06, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Łukasz Brzeski 0 33 of 67 49% 56 of 101 4 of 5 80% 0 1 7:19
Valter Walker 0 58 of 102 56% 135 of 200 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:43
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Łukasz Brzeski 0 12 of 18 66% 21 of 33 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:16
Valter Walker 0 16 of 27 59% 52 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Łukasz Brzeski 0 16 of 35 45% 17 of 36 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:58
Valter Walker 0 32 of 56 57% 39 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
3 Łukasz Brzeski 0 5 of 14 35% 18 of 32 1 of 2 50% 0 1 3:05
Valter Walker 0 10 of 19 52% 44 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:32
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Łukasz Brzeski 33 of 67 49% 19 of 50 6 of 8 8 of 9 23 of 53 2 of 5 8 of 9
Valter Walker 58 of 102 56% 27 of 70 16 of 17 15 of 15 55 of 96 3 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Łukasz Brzeski 12 of 18 66% 9 of 14 0 of 1 3 of 3 4 of 10 1 of 1 7 of 7
Valter Walker 16 of 27 59% 4 of 15 4 of 4 8 of 8 16 of 26 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Łukasz Brzeski 16 of 35 45% 9 of 27 3 of 4 4 of 4 15 of 31 1 of 4 0 of 0
Valter Walker 32 of 56 57% 19 of 42 8 of 9 5 of 5 30 of 52 2 of 4 0 of 0
3 Łukasz Brzeski 5 of 14 35% 1 of 9 3 of 3 1 of 2 4 of 12 0 of 0 1 of 2
Valter Walker 10 of 19 52% 4 of 13 4 of 4 2 of 2 9 of 18 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 31, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Valter Walker

Angelo picks Valter Walker with high confidence, noting that Walker is massive (6'6") and a wrestler who should dominate by coming forward and ragdolling Łukasz Brzeski. He acknowledges that Walker's striking is miserable and he eats shots, but believes heavyweights are not used to a 6'6" Brazilian charging at them with wrestling. He expects the UFC to fast-track Walker.

"Valter is going to be the pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Valter Walker

Big Brady picks Valter Walker by decision, despite being unimpressed with Walker. He notes that Walker is huge, a solid wrestler, and can get fights to the mat. He cannot pick Łukasz Brzeski to win any UFC fight due to poor takedown defense and cardio. He expects a grinding decision with no finish.

win by decision
"give me Walker I'm actually taking Walker by the decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Apr 3, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Valter Walker

Cody also picks Walker, noting that Brzeski has been taken down 8 times by Karl Williams. He thinks Walker's wrestling and size advantage will be key, and that if Walker sticks to takedowns and top control, he should win. Cody is wary of Walker's UFC debut but believes the matchup favors him.

"I'll go against where the market has been moving and I'll pick volter Walker with you"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Valter Walker

Walker is a more complete fighter than his brother Johnny, with solid striking and underrated wrestling. He can take opponents down and grind them out. Brzeski is on a losing streak and has struggled against grapplers. Walker's size and strength advantage will allow him to control the fight and win by decision.

Walker by decision
"I'm going to go Walker here I think he grinds this fight out over 15 minutes and gets his hand raised mainly with a grapple heavy Style on the scorecards"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Apr 3, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Valter Walker

Paul picks Walker but is hesitant due to question marks. He likes Walker's size, athleticism, and grappling, and notes Brzeski has been taken down repeatedly by wrestlers like Karl Williams. Paul thinks Walker can take Brzeski down, make him carry weight, and gas him out. He acknowledges Walker is unproven but sees a clear path to victory via wrestling and top control.

"I do have volter Walker... he is the pick 100% and there will be a play on him"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 2, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Valter Walker

The host identifies Walker as Johnny Walker's brother, noting he is 6'6", 26 years old, with an 81.5-inch reach. He highlights Walker's dynamic striking (front kicks, head kicks, spinning backfists) and good double-leg takedowns. He recalls a clip of Walker grappling with Johnny Walker, showing good sweeps and butterfly guard. He acknowledges Walker has a chin but is confident in his skills.

"I'm going with wter Walker I don't know if you guys know who this guy is I'm about to tell you who he is"
KO (punches) R1 3:01 · UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. The Korean Zombie · Aug 26, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Waldo Cortes Acosta 1 15 of 45 33% 16 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Łukasz Brzeski 0 14 of 22 63% 15 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Waldo Cortes Acosta 1 15 of 45 33% 16 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Łukasz Brzeski 0 14 of 22 63% 15 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Waldo Cortes Acosta 15 of 45 33% 9 of 36 3 of 5 3 of 4 12 of 42 3 of 3 0 of 0
Łukasz Brzeski 14 of 22 63% 1 of 7 3 of 3 10 of 12 14 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Waldo Cortes Acosta 15 of 45 33% 9 of 36 3 of 5 3 of 4 12 of 42 3 of 3 0 of 0
Łukasz Brzeski 14 of 22 63% 1 of 7 3 of 3 10 of 12 14 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 20, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

Angelo is very confident in Waldo, citing his striking and athleticism being far ahead of Brzeski. He notes that Brzeski turns his head and reacts too much to strikes. The only concern is leg kicks, as Waldo has been hurt by them before, but he still believes Waldo wins. He includes Waldo in a two-fighter parlay with Bedoya.

Included in a two-fighter parlay with Rolando Bedoya
"I'm very confident in Waldo here I think Waldo gets the done"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 21, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

Big Brady notes that Waldo Cortes Acosta has holes in his game, including susceptibility to leg kicks and takedowns, but he doesn't trust Łukasz Brzeski's cardio, as Brzeski looks tired after 60 seconds. He expects a sloppy fight with Brzeski gassing early, allowing Acosta to land bigger shots and win a decision. He cautions against betting Acosta at heavy odds.

decision
"give me him to win this fight and win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Aug 24, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Łukasz Brzeski

Cody picks Brzeski as an underdog, noting his durability and volume striking. He thinks Cortes Acosta lacks power and Brzeski can outwork him. Cody also mentions the fight likely goes the distance and likes the over.

fight goes to decision; over 61.5 significant strikes for Cortes Acosta
"I'll take the underdog shot on verchowski"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 24, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

Daniel picks Waldo Cortes Acosta, citing his athleticism and baseball background. He notes that Brzeski is tough but lacks finishing upside. He mentions that Acosta has a good jab and better hands, though he is vulnerable to calf kicks. He thinks Acosta wins by striking and has a cardio edge. He is confident but notes it's heavyweight and anything can happen.

"I think Waldo is the better athlete I think he's got the more upside and I think there's a good bounce back fight for him so for that reason Mike I'm gonna pick him to win this fight"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Aug 26, 2023 (fight day)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

James picks Waldo Cortes Acosta to win by decision, though he acknowledges Brzeski is the value side. He notes Acosta has decent offensive tools but poor defense and leg kick vulnerability. He sees Acosta's speed and athleticism as advantages, and expects him to outpoint Brzeski over three rounds.

"I'm picking Cortez to win I think he probably just wins another decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 22, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

The host defends Cortes Acosta, praising his conditioning, jab, and volume. He notes that Cortes Acosta lost his last fight due to leg kicks and takedowns from Marcos de Lima, but showed good cardio in the third round. The host criticizes Brzeski's takedown defense and regional competition, but acknowledges the line is wide and suggests waiting for a better price. He predicts a decision win for Cortes Acosta.

"I still think that Cortez Acosta gets back to his winning ways gets back to doing what he does best and really putting volume and pressure on his opponents with his jab give me Cortez Acosta to win by decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Aug 24, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

Paul picks Cortes Acosta to win by decision, noting his volume striking and boxing. He likes the over on significant strikes for Cortes Acosta. Paul is not confident in the price but thinks Cortes Acosta should win.

Cortes Acosta by decision; over 61.5 significant strikes for Cortes Acosta
"Cortez by decision and then yeah over 61.5 significant strikes for Waldo"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 22, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

The MMA Guru picks Waldo Cortes Acosta over Łukasz Brzeski, citing Brzeski's lack of grappling and decline in physical shape after a failed drug test. He notes Acosta's size advantage (15-20 pounds) and better boxing with more sting on his shots. He acknowledges Acosta's vulnerability to leg kicks but doubts Brzeski will exploit it. He predicts Acosta's well-rounded boxing and size will be the difference.

"I'm gonna go Waldo Cortez Acosta I don't like that he doesn't deal with leg kicks well but I don't think bursky's going to expose that"
LOSS vs Karl Williams
Decision (unanimous) (30–26, 30–26, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili · Mar 11, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Karl Williams 1 38 of 58 65% 120 of 168 8 of 13 61% 0 0 10:13
Łukasz Brzeski 0 26 of 46 56% 49 of 72 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:29
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Karl Williams 0 16 of 24 66% 19 of 27 3 of 5 60% 0 0 2:14
Łukasz Brzeski 0 13 of 23 56% 28 of 39 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:10
2 Karl Williams 1 12 of 23 52% 36 of 59 4 of 5 80% 0 0 3:42
Łukasz Brzeski 0 7 of 14 50% 11 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:16
3 Karl Williams 0 10 of 11 90% 65 of 82 1 of 3 33% 0 0 4:17
Łukasz Brzeski 0 6 of 9 66% 10 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Karl Williams 38 of 58 65% 31 of 50 4 of 5 3 of 3 22 of 34 2 of 5 14 of 19
Łukasz Brzeski 26 of 46 56% 19 of 39 5 of 5 2 of 2 22 of 40 4 of 5 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Karl Williams 16 of 24 66% 11 of 18 2 of 3 3 of 3 15 of 21 1 of 3 0 of 0
Łukasz Brzeski 13 of 23 56% 10 of 20 3 of 3 0 of 0 12 of 21 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Karl Williams 12 of 23 52% 11 of 22 1 of 1 0 of 0 6 of 11 1 of 2 5 of 10
Łukasz Brzeski 7 of 14 50% 6 of 13 0 of 0 1 of 1 6 of 12 1 of 1 0 of 1
3 Karl Williams 10 of 11 90% 9 of 10 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 9 of 9
Łukasz Brzeski 6 of 9 66% 3 of 6 2 of 2 1 of 1 4 of 7 2 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Mar 5, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Łukasz Brzeski

Angelo leans toward Łukasz Brzeski, believing he is the better overall fighter with more ways to win, including mixing in takedowns. He notes that Brzeski does not like getting hit, which could be a problem against Karl Williams' power, but he thinks Brzeski can dominate as he did against Martin Buday. He advises against betting due to the volatility of heavyweight and Williams' danger.

"I'm going to be leaning Lucas here I think he's I'm gonna avoid some bets after all this is heavyweight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Karl Williams

Big Brady likes Karl Williams, noting his wrestling is dominant and he can take opponents down and keep them there. He points out Brzeski's cardio is questionable and he is no longer on PEDs. Brady expects Williams to control the fight on the mat and win by decision, as Williams is not a finisher.

win by decision
"I'm leaning Carl Williams here by decision I think it's a good spot for him and I think he gets it done here by decision against Lucas breski"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Łukasz Brzeski

Cody agrees with Paul, picking Brzeski. He highlights Brzeski's volume and cardio, and doubts Williams' ability to replicate his takedown success against a true heavyweight. He likes the plus money.

"sign me up for bresky as well"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Łukasz Brzeski

Connor picks Brzeski because he sees him as a more complete fighter with better experience and durability. He notes Brzeski's high output, good gas tank, and ability to handle wrestling, while Williams fades as the fight goes on and his wrestling isn't dominant enough to control Brzeski.

Brzeski opened at -170, now +182; Williams opened +145, now -226. Connor is surprised by the line movement favoring Williams.
"I'm taking the pole. I said that before you really delayed that. I'm taking Wukash."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Karl Williams

Williams' wrestling and grappling should be the deciding factor. He has a good gas tank and will look to grind Brzeski down with takedowns and control time. Brzeski showed improved striking in his last fight but struggled against a clinch-heavy approach. Williams will close the distance and drag the fight to the mat, winning by decision.

"I think that Williams will more than likely grind this fight out over 15 minutes once again getting his hand raised by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Łukasz Brzeski

Paul picks Brzeski as an underdog, questioning Williams' heavyweight credentials and noting Brzeski's cardio and volume. He thinks Brzeski can outwork Williams and mentions his impressive performance against Martin Buday despite a split decision loss.

"Lucas brzewski is a live money Underdog this week for sure and and I will take him as the official selection"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Łukasz Brzeski

The MMA Guru picks Łukasz Brzeski, noting that Karl Williams lacks finishing potential and is not a big heavyweight. He believes Brzeski has good cardio and will out-hustle Williams to a decision win after a rough start in round one.

by decision
"I'm going to trust in him to out hustle Carl Williams to a 29-28 decision after a rough start in round one"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Łukasz Brzeski

Zane agrees with Connor, picking Brzeski due to his superior experience and durability. He notes that Brzeski has been fighting better competition and has a more proven track record, while Williams' wins are against inexperienced opponents and he tends to fade.

"I'm taking Wukash."
LOSS vs Martin Buday
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Vera vs. Cruz · Aug 13, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Martin Buday 0 66 of 188 35% 66 of 188 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Łukasz Brzeski 0 118 of 273 43% 124 of 280 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Martin Buday 0 25 of 63 39% 25 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Łukasz Brzeski 0 41 of 104 39% 47 of 111 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Martin Buday 0 19 of 55 34% 19 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Łukasz Brzeski 0 43 of 89 48% 43 of 89 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Martin Buday 0 22 of 70 31% 22 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Łukasz Brzeski 0 34 of 80 42% 34 of 80 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Martin Buday 66 of 188 35% 50 of 169 3 of 6 13 of 13 65 of 187 1 of 1 0 of 0
Łukasz Brzeski 118 of 273 43% 49 of 182 51 of 69 18 of 22 116 of 268 2 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Martin Buday 25 of 63 39% 20 of 56 0 of 2 5 of 5 24 of 62 1 of 1 0 of 0
Łukasz Brzeski 41 of 104 39% 19 of 74 16 of 21 6 of 9 39 of 99 2 of 5 0 of 0
2 Martin Buday 19 of 55 34% 14 of 50 1 of 1 4 of 4 19 of 55 0 of 0 0 of 0
Łukasz Brzeski 43 of 89 48% 18 of 59 15 of 20 10 of 10 43 of 89 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Martin Buday 22 of 70 31% 16 of 63 2 of 3 4 of 4 22 of 70 0 of 0 0 of 0
Łukasz Brzeski 34 of 80 42% 12 of 49 20 of 28 2 of 3 34 of 80 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Martin Buday

Angelo picks Martin Buday due to his power, noting that Brzeski doesn't like getting hit and may cower. However, he doesn't like the odds at 2-to-1, so he won't bet the moneyline but will use Buday in knockout kings daily fantasy.

Will use Buday in Monkey Knife Fight knockout kings
"ultimately i am going to go with bidet here because i think his power is gonna be the difference i don't like him at two to one odds so i'm not gonna have a money line bet on him"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 9, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Martin Buday

Big Brady picks Martin Buday to win by second-round finish. He notes that Brzeski has terrible cardio, gassing within the first two minutes, and is undersized. Buday uses his size well, pushing opponents against the cage and wearing them down. Brady expects Buday to eventually finish Brzeski, possibly by knockout or ground and pound.

second round finish
"i'm going to say he does win by second round finish"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 10, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Martin Buday

Cody picks Martin Buday, citing his size advantage (30+ lbs) and clinch-heavy style. He notes Brzeski is smaller, may not be on PEDs anymore, and has a limited gas tank. Cody expects Buday to wear him down and finish late in the second or third round.

"i gotta go with the the bigger of the heavyweights to get it done and that's the slovakian prospect"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 10, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Martin Buday

Daniel Levi picks Martin Buday, describing him as a real heavyweight who imposes his size and will. He notes that Buday weighs 265 pounds and uses brutal knees and elbows against the fence. In contrast, Brzeski is lighter and has a failed drug test, so Levi expects Buday to dominate.

"Give me the real heavyweight Martin Buday in that one."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 13, 2022 (fight day)
Martin Buday

The host likes Buday, mentioning he has power and volume. He also notes that Brzeski doesn't look good on the skills. He mentions a bet on Buday inside the distance at -110 and round two at +550.

Buday inside the distance -110; Buday round 2 +550 (on FanDuel).
"i went straight on the uh uh round two plus 550 on fanduel hit that"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 10, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Martin Buday

Paul picks Martin Buday, agreeing with Cody's analysis. He notes the over 1.5 rounds line has moved to -175, but he prefers to look for an over 2.5 or fight goes to decision prop, as Buday tends to grind out wins late.

Over 1.5 rounds (mentioned as moved to -175); looking for over 2.5 or fight goes to decision
"i kind of like the early the early er numbers on the over one and a half rounds that were available but now that it's jacked up to minus 175"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Martin Buday

The host picks Martin Buday, citing a 35-pound weight advantage and expecting him to wear out Łukasz Brzeski against the cage for a third-round TKO. He notes Brzeski's positive steroid test and questions his technique, suggesting he looked better on regional shows than on the Contender Series.

third round TKO due to exhaustion
"i'm going to go over martin bidet third round tko mainly due to the exhaustion of lucas bursky"
Expert Picks (5)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Mick Parkin

Angelo picks Mick Parkin as one of the most confident picks on the card, noting that Parkin is better everywhere and will control the pace. He expects Parkin's odds to balloon to -400 by fight night. Angelo admits the fight will be boring but is confident in Parkin's win.

"Mick Parkin one of the most confident picks on the card this fight's going to suck though"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Mick Parkin

Cody picks Mick Parkin, citing his youth, cardio, and improving wrestling. He notes that Łukasz Brzeski has poor grappling and has been taken down repeatedly. Cody believes Parkin can use his wrestling to control the fight and win by decision, possibly with a late submission.

"Give me Mick parin again probably by decision but who knows man maybe you see a new wrinkle to his game and he submits brusi late in the fight."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Mick Parkin

Daniel thinks Mick Parkin is technical and well-rounded, while Łukasz Brzeski has been fed to prospects and lost. He expects Parkin to outwork Brzeski.

"I'm gonna go with Mick Park and that come out here here and uh outwork him like all these other guys have"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Mick Parkin

Paul also picks Parkin, noting that Brzeski's takedown defense is nonexistent and that Parkin can use his size and wrestling to grind out a win. He mentions that Parkin trains with Tom Aspinall and has a significant weight advantage. Paul expects Parkin to win, possibly by decision.

"Parkin will have like a at least a 30 pound on fighting I probably like a 40 pound advantage over breski... make it ugly."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 22, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Mick Parkin

The MMA Guru picks Mick Parkin, expecting him to chew up Łukasz Brzeski's legs and mix in grappling when needed. He praises Parkin's underrated grappling and notes that Brzeski has had poor performances. The Guru believes Parkin is better than fighters like Karl Williams, who easily beat Brzeski. Training with Tom Aspinall is seen as a plus for Parkin's improvement. He predicts Parkin will win, possibly by decision or TKO.

"Michael Parkin is going to beat up on Lucas berski chew up his legs mix in the grappling when he needs to as well because his grappling is really underrated"