UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · Jul 27, 2024 · Welterweight · Completed
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Age 28
Height 6' 0"
Reach 72.0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 30
Height 5' 11"
Reach 71.0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Oban Elliott
3.62 SLpM
48.0% Str. Acc.
2.24 SApM
61.0% Str. Def.
1.52 TD Avg
40.0% TD Acc.
52.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Preston Parsons
3.54 SLpM
51.0% Str. Acc.
3.25 SApM
54.0% Str. Def.
3.46 TD Avg
36.0% TD Acc.
71.0% TD Def.
2.3 Sub. Avg
Oban Elliott - Fight History
Submission R2 3:31 · UFC 325 · Feb 01, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jonathan Micallef 0 19 of 59 32% 30 of 70 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:35
Oban Elliott 0 40 of 82 48% 47 of 89 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:11
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jonathan Micallef 0 11 of 36 30% 20 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:35
Oban Elliott 0 21 of 49 42% 27 of 55 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:05
2 Jonathan Micallef 0 8 of 23 34% 10 of 25 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:00
Oban Elliott 0 19 of 33 57% 20 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jonathan Micallef 19 of 59 32% 13 of 49 5 of 9 1 of 1 16 of 53 3 of 6 0 of 0
Oban Elliott 40 of 82 48% 34 of 74 1 of 3 5 of 5 35 of 74 5 of 7 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jonathan Micallef 11 of 36 30% 8 of 31 3 of 5 0 of 0 9 of 31 2 of 5 0 of 0
Oban Elliott 21 of 49 42% 16 of 43 1 of 2 4 of 4 16 of 43 5 of 5 0 of 1
2 Jonathan Micallef 8 of 23 34% 5 of 18 2 of 4 1 of 1 7 of 22 1 of 1 0 of 0
Oban Elliott 19 of 33 57% 18 of 31 0 of 1 1 of 1 19 of 31 0 of 2 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Oban Elliott vs. Jonathan Micallef
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Micallef (-135), Elliott (+114)

Round 1
Of the 10 fights the UFC designates as UFC 325, two of them do not feature an athlete from Oceania. This is not one of those, as locals have another man in the cage to get excited about in the form of Micallef (8-1, 1-0 UFC). He collides in a classic matchup of Australia vs. Wales as he locks horns with Elliott (12-3, 3-1 UFC). The welterweights get right after it while referee Marc Goddard keeps tabs on the action.
Micallef leads off with a few kicks, and one to the midsection gets caught as Elliott slings him right down to the mat and climbs on top. Micallef scoots his way to the fence and walks up it with his face aimed towards the audience, and Elliott slugs him upside the head a few times until Micallef breaks off. Elliott intercepts his opponent with a chopping kick that sweeps him off his feet, and when Micallef gets up, he takes a power jab on the jaw. Micallef lunges recklessly, landing a front kick but nearly falling over while doing so. Elliott shrugs it off and corners Micallef, clubbing him with his fists until Micallef peels out and resets. Elliott stings Micallef with a short combination, and he whips a kick at the Aussie’s head that is blocked in time. Elliott kicks low, and Micallef is unable to get out of first gear. Both fighters miss on big hooks, and Elliott uses a second to set up an ankle pick takedown that does not materialize.
The clashing men clinch up, and when they split, Micallef drills Elliott in the temple with a right hand that sets him down. The Welshman climbs back up, and he watches Micallef load up wildly and sees the punches soar past him. Micallef offers out a one-two, and he is met with an intercepting jab. Elliott beats his man to the punch, opening a cut on Micallef’s right eye with his faster swings. Micallef lumbers forward, loading up so much that he crashes into the cage looking quite silly. Elliott does not make him pay for it, so Micallef circles around and wipes the wound that is leaking a bit. Micallef manages to get his hands on Elliott, wrapping him up and leaning on him against the fence. Elliott escapes and dodges an elbow, and he plants his left hand on the bloody face of the Aussie. Elliott further targets it before the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Elliott
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Elliott
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Elliott

Round 2
Elliott rushes out to start the round, where he is met with a front kick to his breadbasket. Micallef looks to establish his jab, and he guards against a high kick when pressing forward. Elliott’s boxing is crisp and quick, allowing him to beat the wide-swinging Micallef to the punch. Micallef swarms forward but misses the mark with his lobbed arms, and Elliott opens the cut up again on the side of Micallef’s eye. Elliott strings a few punches together, not getting too greedy and backing off when he sees the counter coming. Micallef winds up on his punches, allowing Elliott to see many of them coming. The Welshman slams a kick on the lead leg, and his guard is able to defend the responsive head kick. Micallef catches him coming forward with a right hand, and Elliott gets frustrated and lashes out with a storm of reaching punches.
Micallef takes them flush and bounces off the wall behind him, letting Elliott come to him so he can wrap him up and go for a level change. The body lock takedown from Micallef is successful in wresting “The Welsh Gangster” to the floor, and he is quick to set up a rear-naked choke while lacing both hooks in. Micallef slithers his arm beneath the chin in a slightly unorthodox position, and Elliott fights the hands and releases slack in his arms in hopes of loosening the grip.
Seeing this is a poor decision, Elliott frantically attacks the choke grip, but it is now fully secured and squeezing the carotid artery as tight as one can. Elliott’s defensive gestures fall away as his limbs go limp, losing consciousness as Goddard quickly identifies—and measures his resistance by lifting the lifeless arms—the submission has reached its completion.
Snatching victory from the jaws of defeat thanks to one perfectly timed takedown, the Australian adds another win on the board for home-country athletes with a technical submission of a man in Elliott who had never been submitted. There’s a first time for everything, as “The Captain” declares that he is the captain now.

The Official Result
Jonathan Micallef def. Oban Elliott R2 3:31 via Technical Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 25, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Jonathan Micallef

Angelo picks Jonathan Micallef, citing his wrestling and ability to land big shots and then shoot takedowns. He notes that Oban Elliott was afraid of power in his last fight and got taken down six times. He likes that Micallef is only minus 150 and says the line moved from dog to favorite, which reassures him.

"I'm going to lean Michelef here. And I and I like seeing that he's only minus 150."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jan 25, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Oban Elliott

Big Brady picks the underdog Oban Elliott, believing the market overreacted to his loss against Sung Ho Ko (who is legit). He thinks Elliott is the better striker and wrestler, while Micallef only has a body kick. He expects a decision win for Elliott.

"I'm going to take Elliott here. I'll take him to win this fight by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jan 28, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Oban Elliott

Cody is taking Elliott as a slight underdog, believing he is being undervalued after one loss. He notes that Micallef has a limited striking arsenal and questionable takedown defense. He expects Elliott to use his wrestling and win a decision.

"I think Oban Elliot's got a plus money. I'm gonna take a small poke here."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Jonathan Micallef

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Micallef. He notes that Elliott is a classic neutralizer who feasts on unprincipled strikers, but Micallef is a principled striker who will not get frustrated. Connor believes Micallef's comfort at range and ability to stay proactive will win him the fight.

Same odds commentary.
"Yeah, I think it's very much a winnable fight for Elliott, but he is going to have to break out of his his golden cage. Yeah, and actually do something different."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Jan 15, 2026 (17 days before fight)
Oban Elliott

Daniel Vreeland leans toward Elliott as a dog, believing the market overcorrected after his loss to a legit opponent. He thinks Elliott's takedown defense is solid and that Micallef is overrated. Vreeland sees this as a competitive fight and likes Elliott at plus money.

"At dog odds, I'm a little tempted on Elliot."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jan 25, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Jonathan Micallef

James picks Micallef, citing his advantage in jiu-jitsu and outside kickboxing. He believes Elliott's wrestling could lead to submissions, and that Micallef's footwork and kicks will win the striking exchanges. James questions Elliott's durability and sees Micallef as the more well-rounded fighter.

"I got Makalif in this one."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 27, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Oban Elliott

Elliott is a well-rounded grappler with good cardio and chain wrestling. Micallef relies on mobile striking and BJJ, but Elliott should be able to shut down his striking and win the grappling exchanges. The host liked Elliott at -120 when the fight was first scheduled, so at +110 he sees value. Elliott is the better scrambler and should get more top time and damage.

Elliott by decision
"I'm going to have to lean on Elliot as I think he's a bit a little bit more well-rounded and will get the better of the grappling exchanges as well."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jan 28, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Jonathan Micallef

Paul disagrees and picks Micallef, citing Elliott's poor performance in his last fight and questionable wrestling. He believes Micallef's length and striking will be enough to win a decision.

"McAlliff throws like basically he's got like a long body kick. He's got some submissions off of his back. Is Oan going to just hang out in his guard? possible, but McCallip is the side for me."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 31, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Oban Elliott

The Guru picks Oban Elliott despite acknowledging potential bias as a friend. He cites Elliott's experience, craftiness in scrambles, and ability to mix things up on the feet. He notes Micallef's athleticism and finishing potential but believes Elliott's experience and training camp preparation will lead to a split decision win.

split decision 29-28
"I'm going to go with Orban getting this one done. Plus lighter man skill."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Jonathan Micallef

Zane picks Micallef because he is a principled striker who is comfortable operating from long range, which should neutralize Elliott's passive, counter-fighting style. He notes that Elliott struggles against principled strikers and tends to give up too much momentum. Zane believes Micallef's kicking game and generalship will be key.

Micallef opened at -110, now -130; Elliott opened at -110, now +110.
"I'm gonna take Michalif on that. And I like Elliott, but that's also why I feel like this is for him, this is much more a fight for him where he has to kind of it's gonna have to do …"
CANCEL vs Jonathan Micallef
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Sep 21, 2025 (7 days before fight)
Jonathan Micallef

Angelo picks Jonathan Micallef because he has takedowns and random power, which he believes will exploit Oban Elliott's grappling holes. He notes that Elliott recently lost to a similar style fighter (Shyuko) who took him down six times and made him hesitant. Angelo admits he is not insanely confident but sees a clear path to victory for Micallef.

"I'm going to pick Jonathan Malef. Am I insanely confident in that? No. No, I'm not. But I do think Jonathan Mikv, a guy that we know has random power, we know has takedowns versus a guy that has some …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Sep 25, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Oban Elliott

Big Brady picks Oban Elliott to win by decision, but is hesitant. He has never been high on Elliott and thinks he is overrated, but sees this as a winnable fight. He notes Elliott is the better striker and can get takedowns, but worries about his ground game after a poor performance against Co.

"I'm going to pick Elliot here. pick Elliot here to win by decision, but I don't know. It's a weird one."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Sep 23, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Oban Elliott

Cody picks Elliott but is nervous after his last poor performance. He believes Elliott has the skills to win if he returns to form, using his judo and takedowns. He notes Micallef is green and relies on volume, but Elliott's low volume and recent loss make him untrustworthy.

"Obanelli hopefully jumps back in the in the right track, but last fight was abysmal. He's the pick for me, but I'm a little nervous there."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Sep 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jonathan Micallef

Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Elliott is not comfortable being a pressure fighter and will likely spend too much time on the end of Micallef's kicks. He thinks Elliott may duck into a head kick trying to play Micallef's guessing game. However, he acknowledges it's a good fight and Elliott could win if he pressures.

"Yeah, I'll take Micallef as well. I think stylistically Elliott's gonna let him have too much play."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Sep 19, 2025 (9 days before fight)
Oban Elliott

James leans toward Oban Elliott due to his more well-rounded skill set, better boxing, and proven UFC experience. He notes that Micallef relies heavily on kicks and jiu-jitsu, while Elliott has superior wrestling and cardio. However, he acknowledges the fight is close and passes on betting due to lack of strong read.

"I lean Elliot a little bit. I mean he's been there and done it on the UFC scene a little bit more."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Oban Elliott

The host expects Elliott to bounce back after losing as a big favorite. He thinks Elliott will shut down Micallef's grappling and use pace and pressure in striking that Micallef cannot keep up with, winning on the scorecards.

"Elliot is looking to bounce back after fumbling the bag as a minus 500 favorite last time around. And I think he can do it successfully by shutting down Mckela's grappling game and then putting on a pace and pressure …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Oban Elliott

The Guru picks Oban Elliott, citing his experience and well-rounded skills. He believes Micallef won't be able to impose his bully tactics and that Elliott's wrestling and striking will be key. He predicts a 29-28 decision, with Elliott winning the first and third rounds.

29-28 decision
"I'm going to go towards my boy Oran Elliot here."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Sep 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jonathan Micallef

Zane thinks Micallef's kicking game will be effective if Elliott gives him space, which he expects Elliott to do. He notes that Elliott tends to be a neutralizer who may not pressure effectively, and that Micallef's southpaw stance and power rear leg kick could cause problems. However, he acknowledges Elliott could counter if he pressures.

Odds comment: razor thin odds; Micallef opened +110 now -102, Elliott opened -130 now -118
"Part of my guts is I should take Micallef here. I think Elliott is gonna give him space."
LOSS vs Ko Seok-hyun
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Hill vs. Rountree Jr. · Jun 21, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ko Seok-hyun 0 33 of 61 54% 80 of 127 6 of 9 66% 1 0 10:15
Oban Elliott 0 10 of 31 32% 19 of 40 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:44
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ko Seok-hyun 0 8 of 20 40% 19 of 36 2 of 5 40% 0 0 1:36
Oban Elliott 0 4 of 11 36% 5 of 12 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:41
2 Ko Seok-hyun 0 15 of 27 55% 26 of 45 2 of 2 100% 1 0 4:15
Oban Elliott 0 3 of 10 30% 7 of 14 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Ko Seok-hyun 0 10 of 14 71% 35 of 46 2 of 2 100% 0 0 4:24
Oban Elliott 0 3 of 10 30% 7 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ko Seok-hyun 33 of 61 54% 25 of 51 5 of 6 3 of 4 14 of 32 3 of 6 16 of 23
Oban Elliott 10 of 31 32% 2 of 20 6 of 8 2 of 3 9 of 30 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ko Seok-hyun 8 of 20 40% 5 of 16 2 of 3 1 of 1 3 of 12 3 of 5 2 of 3
Oban Elliott 4 of 11 36% 0 of 5 3 of 4 1 of 2 3 of 10 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Ko Seok-hyun 15 of 27 55% 12 of 23 2 of 2 1 of 2 5 of 11 0 of 1 10 of 15
Oban Elliott 3 of 10 30% 0 of 6 2 of 3 1 of 1 3 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Ko Seok-hyun 10 of 14 71% 8 of 12 1 of 1 1 of 1 6 of 9 0 of 0 4 of 5
Oban Elliott 3 of 10 30% 2 of 9 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Oban Elliott

Angelo picks Oban Elliott confidently, noting his well-rounded skills, cardio, and ability to flow. He contrasts Oban's movement with Ko's stiffness and power, predicting that Oban will avoid big shots and win early. He thinks Oban's footwork and range control will be key, and that Ko's lack of setup will be exploited.

Predicts win in first or second round; expects high fantasy score.
"I think Oban Elliott absolutely wins this fight. I think he wins early, meaning in like the first or second round."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 18, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Oban Elliott

Big Brady picks Oban Elliott, the biggest favorite on the card. He notes Elliott has fixed previous chin and cardio issues, is only 27, and trains at a good gym. Brady is not sold on Ko, who had limited footage and a boring Contender Series win. He thinks Elliott will do better work on the feet and can mix in takedowns. He predicts Elliott by decision.

decision
"I'm going to go Elliot here. Elliot to win this one by decision."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Oban Elliott

The host acknowledges that Ko will provide resistance, especially if Elliott looks for a takedown-heavy approach. However, he expects Elliott to mix it up well with volume striking and takedown threat to grind out a decision win.

"Co will surely provide some resistance, especially if Elliot looks for a takedown heavy approach, but I'm expecting Elliot to mix it up well with his volume striking and his takedown threat to grind this fight out and win it …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Oban Elliott

The MMA Guru picks Oban Elliott, despite acknowledging bias as a friend. He praises Elliott's ability to overcome adversity and resistance in fights, citing his comebacks against Val Woodburn and others. He believes Elliott's well-roundedness and durability will overcome Ko Seok-hyun, predicting a third-round finish.

Elliott wins by TKO in round 3
"I'm going to go with Oban Elliot. I think he's more wellrounded and he's met resistance. He's been rocked, he's been dropped, and he still wins every time."
CANCEL vs Ramiz Brahimaj
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 18, 2025 (13 days before fight)
Oban Elliott

Angelo picks Oban Elliott confidently, noting his well-rounded skills, cardio, and ability to get back to his feet after takedowns. He contrasts this with Ramiz Brahimaj's tendency to grapple off his back and lack of striking. He expects the odds to widen further and advises betting early.

Suggests the line will move from -400 to -800 or -900, implying value on Elliott at current odds.
"Oban is 100 times a striker that Ramese is and should absolutely run away here."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 26, 2025 (5 days before fight)

Big Brady picks Billy Goff despite the wide line, noting that Ramiz Brahimaj is essentially first-round sub or bust and fades after the first five minutes. Goff is tough, has great cardio, and applies constant pressure. Brady expects Goff to break Brahimaj and finish him in the second round, possibly by knockout.

second round knockout
"I like Billy Rigoff here. It is a wide line, but I think he does break Ramsey's Brahimage."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 29, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Matt picks Billy Goff to win by decision. He notes that Goff is an all-gas fighter who wears opponents down, while Brahimaj is an early-finish threat who fades. Goff has never been finished and should survive the early onslaught, then take over in the second and third rounds. Matt likes Goff by decision at +220.

Goff by decision +220, Brahimaj round one KO +2400, Brahimaj round one submission +1200
"Goff will likely start pulling away in the second and third rounds here. Goff to win by decision is the prop that I'd go with here."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 28, 2025 (3 days before fight)

The MMA Guru picks Billy Goff over Ramiz Brahimaj, citing Goff's pressure, body work, and grit. He criticizes Brahimaj's level, noting losses to Court McGee and others. He predicts Goff will win by second or third round TKO, mixing body shots and low kicks.

TKO in round 2 or 3
"I'm going with Billy Ray Gooff... I think Billy Gooff is going to win this fight... Billy Gooff wins by second or third round TKO over Ramis Brahimage."
WIN vs Bassil Hafez
KO (punches) R3 0:40 · UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · Nov 16, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Oban Elliott 0 24 of 70 34% 24 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Bassil Hafez 1 65 of 117 55% 66 of 118 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Oban Elliott 0 10 of 27 37% 10 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Bassil Hafez 0 25 of 49 51% 26 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Oban Elliott 0 12 of 37 32% 12 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Bassil Hafez 0 29 of 53 54% 29 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Oban Elliott 0 2 of 6 33% 2 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Bassil Hafez 1 11 of 15 73% 11 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Oban Elliott 24 of 70 34% 16 of 55 2 of 9 6 of 6 23 of 69 1 of 1 0 of 0
Bassil Hafez 65 of 117 55% 22 of 60 16 of 24 27 of 33 55 of 107 2 of 2 8 of 8
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Oban Elliott 10 of 27 37% 7 of 21 1 of 4 2 of 2 9 of 26 1 of 1 0 of 0
Bassil Hafez 25 of 49 51% 6 of 21 5 of 9 14 of 19 23 of 47 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Oban Elliott 12 of 37 32% 8 of 29 0 of 4 4 of 4 12 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0
Bassil Hafez 29 of 53 54% 7 of 27 10 of 13 12 of 13 29 of 53 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Oban Elliott 2 of 6 33% 1 of 5 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Bassil Hafez 11 of 15 73% 9 of 12 1 of 2 1 of 1 3 of 7 0 of 0 8 of 8
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Bassil Hafez

Angelo picks Bassil Hafez as an underdog, liking his pressure, takedowns, and power. He notes that Oban Elliott has good cardio and tools but is not very dangerous and can be taken down. He believes if Hafez's cardio holds up, he wins. He plans to bet on Hafez if the line moves in his favor.

Angelo says he will bet on Bassil Hafez if the line moves in his favor, indicating a potential bet on the underdog.
"I love his pressure I love the takedowns I'm going to pick him as an underdog here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Oban Elliott

Big Brady picks Oban Elliott but thinks the line is too wide. He notes Elliott's improved takedown defense in his last fight against Preston Parsons and believes he is the cleaner striker. However, he acknowledges that Bassil Hafez has solid wrestling and that Elliott has been taken down by lesser fighters in the past. He predicts a close decision win for Elliott, possibly 29-28.

"I do think this Line's a tad too wide for my liking I do think there's some recency biased here with obon Elliott but with that said I I do think Elliott looked the best he he's ever had in …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Bassil Hafez

Cody picks Bassil Hafez, citing his durability and grappling. He notes Hafez was competitive with Jack Madalena and has a strong top game. Cody expects Hafez to neutralize Elliott with takedowns and control, possibly winning a decision. He likes the plus money.

"I'll take HZ HZ by decision if you're a split decision kind of guy maybe chase the split decision prop on this one as well"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Nov 15, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Bassil Hafez

Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Hafez's aggression and willingness to scramble will trouble Elliott. He mentions that Elliott's defensive wrestling and footwork are good, but Hafez's pace and power could overwhelm him. Connor sees it as a close fight but leans toward Hafez.

"Yeah, Hafez just making aggressive decisions is a much bigger problem for somebody whose primary interest is to neutralize at the start of the fight."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Oban Elliott

Daniel Vreeland picks Oban Elliott, expecting him to take over after the first round. He notes Hafez's tendency to gas out and Elliott's improving takedown defense and fight IQ. He acknowledges Hafez's early power but believes Elliott's pace and durability will win him the decision.

decision
"I see Oban taking over the second and third coming out here and uh winning this decision"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Bassil Hafez

Vreeland picks Hafez as his dog, noting he has been fading Oban Elliott from day one. He thinks the plus 200 line is juicy and that Hafez can submit Elliott, who gave up his back to B Woodburn.

Bassil Hafez wins by submission (+600)
"I think that number is Juicy against obon Elliot and I have been an obon Elliott fader since day one"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)

Fox does not make a clear pick for this fight. He comments that he doesn't like the Hafez submission prop but does not state his own pick.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 16, 2024 (fight day)
Oban Elliott

The host was impressed by Elliott's pressure approach against Preston Parsons, where he turned the takedowns against Parsons and landed big shots. He expects Elliott to replicate that against Hafez, using his speed and technical striking advantage to win a decision as Hafez slows down in deeper waters.

"Elliot surprised me very much last time around against Preston Parsons as he took that pressure approach and turned it against Parsons Stu the takedowns Landing big shots of his own and I expect him to do the same here …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Bassil Hafez

Paul picks Bassil Hafez, noting the growing plus money and Hafez's durability. He expects a close fight that could go to a split decision, and likes Hafez as an underdog. Paul is waiting for the line to move further before betting.

"I'll wind up with some money on uh basil ofz this week"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 11, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Oban Elliott

The MMA Guru picks Oban Elliott, citing his volume striking and underrated grappling. He notes Bassil Hafez looked awful against Mickey Gall and struggled with takedowns. He believes Elliott will out-volume Hafez on the feet and won't be taken down.

"I'm going to go with auan Elliott he's going to win the fight... I think auan ot's going to out volume him on the feet out busy him"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Nov 15, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Bassil Hafez

Zane picks Hafez, feeling that Hafez's relentless aggression and power will be too much for Elliott's neutralization style. He notes that Elliott has been knocked out before and that Hafez is faster and harder to dissuade. Zane expects a split decision but leans toward Hafez.

Odds: Elliott opened -156, now -275; Hafez opened +123, now +232. Zane says it feels like a very close fight, split decision either way.
"I'm gonna go with Hafez as well. I just feel in my gut that Elliot his style... it is a level thing."
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · Jul 27, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Oban Elliott 0 44 of 125 35% 49 of 142 1 of 2 50% 0 0 4:56
Preston Parsons 0 36 of 93 38% 71 of 133 1 of 9 11% 0 0 1:58
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Oban Elliott 0 9 of 35 25% 12 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:56
Preston Parsons 0 12 of 34 35% 25 of 50 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:22
2 Oban Elliott 0 13 of 46 28% 14 of 53 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:54
Preston Parsons 0 16 of 29 55% 23 of 38 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:18
3 Oban Elliott 0 22 of 44 50% 23 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:06
Preston Parsons 0 8 of 30 26% 23 of 45 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:18
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Oban Elliott 44 of 125 35% 36 of 116 4 of 5 4 of 4 41 of 122 3 of 3 0 of 0
Preston Parsons 36 of 93 38% 15 of 66 4 of 9 17 of 18 31 of 85 5 of 8 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Oban Elliott 9 of 35 25% 6 of 32 2 of 2 1 of 1 8 of 34 1 of 1 0 of 0
Preston Parsons 12 of 34 35% 3 of 21 2 of 5 7 of 8 9 of 30 3 of 4 0 of 0
2 Oban Elliott 13 of 46 28% 9 of 42 2 of 2 2 of 2 12 of 45 1 of 1 0 of 0
Preston Parsons 16 of 29 55% 7 of 18 2 of 4 7 of 7 15 of 27 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 Oban Elliott 22 of 44 50% 21 of 42 0 of 1 1 of 1 21 of 43 1 of 1 0 of 0
Preston Parsons 8 of 30 26% 5 of 27 0 of 0 3 of 3 7 of 28 1 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Preston Parsons

Angelo picks Preston Parsons, expecting him to dive for takedowns and either submit or decision Oban Elliott. He notes that Oban is well-rounded but not dangerous, and Parsons has 9 submissions in 11 wins. Angelo acknowledges the fight could be boring but believes Parsons will get the grappling going and win.

"I'm going to go with Preston I think he's diving at legs I think he gets it to the ground probably 50/50 if he subs or decisions"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Preston Parsons

Cody picks Preston Parsons, citing his relentless pressure, grappling, and power. He notes that Oban Elliott was taken down by Val Woodburn, which is a red flag, and that Parsons has better wrestling and cardio. Cody believes Parsons can grind out a win or even knock Elliott out.

"I gotta go with Preston Parsons uh honestly he's got some legitimate skills guy that shows up every time and he's just a go go go go type guy."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jul 25, 2024 (2 days before fight)

Daniel picks Modestas Bukauskas inside the distance as his prop. He notes Bukauskas has good takedowns and back-takes from his Cage Warriors days, and expects him to work his grappling. He thinks there's a real chance of a ground-and-pound finish, and the inside distance line at +240 offers value.

Modestas Bukauskas inside the distance +240; also mentions submission line +1800 as tempting but not official
"I'm gonna take his inside the distance because even if he takes him down a bunch I think there's a real chance he gets a ground and pound finish instead"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Preston Parsons

Daniel thinks Preston Parsons is more battle-tested and has faced better competition. He notes Oban Elliott is unathletic and boring but tough. He picks Parsons but not confidently, citing potential jet lag and judging issues.

"I'm gonna pick Preston Parsons but not confidently"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Preston Parsons

Paul agrees with Cody, noting that Elliott's takedown defense is questionable and that Parsons' wrestling will be the difference. He mentions that Parsons has a clear game plan and that Elliott's love from the betting market is unwarranted.

"I don't really understand the OB and Elliott love to be perfectly honest."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 22, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Preston Parsons

The MMA Guru picks Preston Parsons, believing he is the better fighter with tougher competition. He notes Parsons' well-rounded game, including grappling and submission attempts, and his impressive win over Matthew Semelsberger. The Guru is less impressed with Oban Elliott's striking, calling it slow, and thinks Parsons will mix things up effectively. He acknowledges Elliott's size and potential but trusts Parsons' experience and skill.

"I just think Preston Parsons is better than him to be honest with you and I think Preston Parsons has fought better competition"
WIN vs Val Woodburn
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · Feb 17, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Oban Elliott 0 70 of 111 63% 136 of 188 3 of 5 60% 0 0 8:58
Val Woodburn 1 23 of 61 37% 30 of 70 2 of 2 100% 0 1 1:56
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Oban Elliott 0 28 of 40 70% 51 of 66 1 of 2 50% 0 0 4:09
Val Woodburn 1 5 of 17 29% 5 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
2 Oban Elliott 0 23 of 40 57% 53 of 75 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:40
Val Woodburn 0 6 of 20 30% 6 of 20 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:19
3 Oban Elliott 0 19 of 31 61% 32 of 47 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:09
Val Woodburn 0 12 of 24 50% 19 of 32 1 of 1 100% 0 1 1:25
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Oban Elliott 70 of 111 63% 60 of 96 7 of 11 3 of 4 33 of 65 3 of 3 34 of 43
Val Woodburn 23 of 61 37% 19 of 55 2 of 4 2 of 2 15 of 46 5 of 10 3 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Oban Elliott 28 of 40 70% 24 of 36 2 of 2 2 of 2 4 of 9 2 of 2 22 of 29
Val Woodburn 5 of 17 29% 5 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 9 0 of 4 2 of 4
2 Oban Elliott 23 of 40 57% 19 of 33 4 of 7 0 of 0 19 of 36 1 of 1 3 of 3
Val Woodburn 6 of 20 30% 5 of 17 1 of 3 0 of 0 5 of 19 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Oban Elliott 19 of 31 61% 17 of 27 1 of 2 1 of 2 10 of 20 0 of 0 9 of 11
Val Woodburn 12 of 24 50% 9 of 21 1 of 1 2 of 2 7 of 18 4 of 5 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 11, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Oban Elliott

Angelo picks Oban Elliott as the more well-rounded fighter who can grind out a decision. He notes that Val Woodburn is dangerous but Oban is the better fighter. He plans to bet Val Woodburn inside the distance decision no action, expecting a refund if Oban wins by decision.

Val Woodburn wins inside distance (decision no action)
"Oban is going to be the pick... Oban probably wins a decision which means I'll get a refund if Val doesn't finish the fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Oban Elliott

Big Brady picks Oban Elliott to win by third-round submission. He notes Elliott's solid wrestling and grappling, expecting him to wear down Val Woodburn and eventually finish him. He expresses concerns about Elliott's durability, as he has been nearly finished before, but believes Woodburn's lack of tested grappling will be his downfall. He says he wouldn't lay -300 on Elliott but still picks him.

Elliott by submission, round 3
"I'm going to take obon Elliot to win this fight... I'll say like a third round submission for Oban Elliott here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Val Woodburn

Cody picks Woodburn as a dog, noting his appearance and the fact that he is dropping to 170, which may be a better fit. He admits he has no interest in betting Elliott at -270 and sees Woodburn as a live underdog. He acknowledges it's a pass for him but picks Woodburn for the show.

"I'll pick Val just strictly based off of his uh his appearance on his tapology page real hard-hitting analysis."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Oban Elliott

Daniel Vreeland picks Oban Elliott, believing he will break Woodburn down with his attritional style and cardio. He notes Woodburn is dropping to welterweight and is relatively unknown. He looks forward to fading Elliott in the future but picks him here.

"I think obon wins this."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Val Woodburn

Daniel picks Val Woodburn as a value underdog. He explains that he initially dismissed Woodburn but after watching his regional fights, he was impressed by his strength and cardio. He notes that Woodburn fought up at light heavyweight and manhandled opponents. He criticizes Oban Elliott's Contender Series performance, saying he tired and his wrestling may not hold up. He believes Woodburn's power and clinch work will be decisive and that the -286 price on Elliott is too high.

"I don't think you can bet Oban Elliott in this spot at what did you say negative 270 or 280 yeah like that's just an exorbitant for this fight and I think there's some value on Woodburn so I'm gonna …"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Oban Elliott

Jeff picks Oban Elliott, citing his better overall skills and experience. He acknowledges that UK fighters can be overhyped but believes Elliott is the more well-rounded fighter. He is not willing to pay the -286 price, however, and says he won't bet him in real life.

"I will take Elliot probably he's gonna end up overhyped because guys from the UK tend to get overhyped... but he's he's better than Woodburn definitely better experience better fighter overall more well-rounded."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Oban Elliott

Elliott has experience and grappling advantages. Woodburn is moving down to welterweight for the first time and lacks tools. Elliott grinds out a late finish. The -310 line is too wide, so late-round props are recommended.

late round props for Elliott
"minus 310 is a little bit too wide for me and I think that honing in on those late round props for Elliott will be the key to extracting as much profit from this matchup as possible"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Oban Elliott

Paul picks Elliott, noting his experience on the European regional scene and his win on Contender Series. He questions Woodburn's durability and cardio after his quick KO loss to Bo Nickal. He believes Elliott's wrestling and well-rounded game will be too much for Woodburn.

"obon Elliott will be my pick here."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Oban Elliott

The MMA Guru picks Oban Elliott, noting his skill advantage over Val Woodburn if the fight leaves the first few exchanges. He criticizes Woodburn's strength of schedule, saying his wins are against older, past-it fighters. He predicts Elliott wins by decision, possibly an arm triangle submission in the late second or third round. He also mentions concern about Elliott's weight cut after a brutal KO loss.

Maybe an arm triangle submission in the late second or third round.
"I reckon he will beat Val Woodburn... I think if this fight leaves the first few exchanges he has a massive advantage in terms of skill over Val Woodburn."
Preston Parsons - Fight History
LOSS vs Jacobe Smith
KO (punches) R1 1:13 · UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · Jan 11, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jacobe Smith 0 7 of 14 50% 8 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Preston Parsons 1 12 of 23 52% 12 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jacobe Smith 0 7 of 14 50% 8 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Preston Parsons 1 12 of 23 52% 12 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jacobe Smith 7 of 14 50% 6 of 12 1 of 1 0 of 1 6 of 13 1 of 1 0 of 0
Preston Parsons 12 of 23 52% 8 of 17 2 of 3 2 of 3 11 of 21 0 of 0 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jacobe Smith 7 of 14 50% 6 of 12 1 of 1 0 of 1 6 of 13 1 of 1 0 of 0
Preston Parsons 12 of 23 52% 8 of 17 2 of 3 2 of 3 11 of 21 0 of 0 1 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Jan 5, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Jacobe Smith

Angelo picks Jacobe Smith (Andreas Gustofson) but with very low confidence. He believes Smith is the better pure wrestler and that his wrestling will be the difference, as Preston Parsons is clueless if he can't get takedowns. However, he notes that Smith is a UFC debutant and a 2-to-1 favorite, which he considers a bad bet. He thinks Smith's jiu-jitsu is good enough to avoid submissions. He advises against betting on Smith.

"I'm going to pick Andreas here the confidence is insanely low two to one favorite on a UFC debut who's fighting the best person he's ever fought before is not a good bet do not bet on Andreas"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jacobe Smith

Big Brady is very high on Jacobe Smith, calling him a top-three contender series prospect. He praises Smith's wrestling, devastating ground and pound, and power. He notes Parsons is hittable and has poor performances when he can't get takedowns, like against Oban Elliott. Brady predicts Smith will outwrestle Parsons and land a big shot, winning by second-round TKO.

second round knockout
"give me uh jacobe Smith to win this fight I'll take him to win this fight by second round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jacobe Smith

Cody is confident in Smith, citing his elite wrestling pedigree and physicality. He notes Parsons's struggles against strong wrestlers like Oban Elliott. He expects Smith to dominate with takedowns and control.

"I do have jacobe to get the job done and probably hopefully go out there and put on a statement type performance"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jacobe Smith

Daniel is high on Smith's wrestling credentials (D1 from Oklahoma State) and KO power, but notes the -525 price and short notice are concerns. He thinks Smith's wrestling and power will be too much for Parsons, who is chinny and lost to Trevin Giles. He picks Smith but passes on betting due to lack of value.

pass on betting due to -525 price
"as a pure pick I'll go jacobe Smith here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 10, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Jacobe Smith

Smith is making his UFC debut on very short notice but is a much better wrestler and grappler than Parsons. He will keep Parsons in bad positions and grind out a decision win.

"I think he's still way better of a wrestler and Grappler than Parsons and I think he'll be able to keep Parson in bad positions and eventually grind this fight out to win on the scorecards"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jacobe Smith

Paul also picks Smith, calling him a real deal prospect. He notes Smith's violent Contender Series performance and All-American wrestling. He believes Smith will impose his will and move up the ranks quickly.

"Smith seems like the real deal and a guy to watch 04 in 2025 to me"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jacobe Smith

The Guru picks Smith, impressed by his contender series performance and offensive grappling. He thinks Smith's athleticism and relentlessness will out-hustle Parsons, who he considers not fast enough to lead. He notes Parsons has given trouble to fighters like Matthew Semelsberger and Trevin Giles but believes Smith's grappling will be the difference.

"I'm going with Jacob Smith this was one of the uh prospects on the contender Series this season"
LOSS vs Oban Elliott
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · Jul 27, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Oban Elliott 0 44 of 125 35% 49 of 142 1 of 2 50% 0 0 4:56
Preston Parsons 0 36 of 93 38% 71 of 133 1 of 9 11% 0 0 1:58
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Oban Elliott 0 9 of 35 25% 12 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:56
Preston Parsons 0 12 of 34 35% 25 of 50 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:22
2 Oban Elliott 0 13 of 46 28% 14 of 53 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:54
Preston Parsons 0 16 of 29 55% 23 of 38 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:18
3 Oban Elliott 0 22 of 44 50% 23 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:06
Preston Parsons 0 8 of 30 26% 23 of 45 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:18
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Oban Elliott 44 of 125 35% 36 of 116 4 of 5 4 of 4 41 of 122 3 of 3 0 of 0
Preston Parsons 36 of 93 38% 15 of 66 4 of 9 17 of 18 31 of 85 5 of 8 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Oban Elliott 9 of 35 25% 6 of 32 2 of 2 1 of 1 8 of 34 1 of 1 0 of 0
Preston Parsons 12 of 34 35% 3 of 21 2 of 5 7 of 8 9 of 30 3 of 4 0 of 0
2 Oban Elliott 13 of 46 28% 9 of 42 2 of 2 2 of 2 12 of 45 1 of 1 0 of 0
Preston Parsons 16 of 29 55% 7 of 18 2 of 4 7 of 7 15 of 27 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 Oban Elliott 22 of 44 50% 21 of 42 0 of 1 1 of 1 21 of 43 1 of 1 0 of 0
Preston Parsons 8 of 30 26% 5 of 27 0 of 0 3 of 3 7 of 28 1 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Preston Parsons

Angelo picks Preston Parsons, expecting him to dive for takedowns and either submit or decision Oban Elliott. He notes that Oban is well-rounded but not dangerous, and Parsons has 9 submissions in 11 wins. Angelo acknowledges the fight could be boring but believes Parsons will get the grappling going and win.

"I'm going to go with Preston I think he's diving at legs I think he gets it to the ground probably 50/50 if he subs or decisions"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Preston Parsons

Cody picks Preston Parsons, citing his relentless pressure, grappling, and power. He notes that Oban Elliott was taken down by Val Woodburn, which is a red flag, and that Parsons has better wrestling and cardio. Cody believes Parsons can grind out a win or even knock Elliott out.

"I gotta go with Preston Parsons uh honestly he's got some legitimate skills guy that shows up every time and he's just a go go go go type guy."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Preston Parsons

Daniel thinks Preston Parsons is more battle-tested and has faced better competition. He notes Oban Elliott is unathletic and boring but tough. He picks Parsons but not confidently, citing potential jet lag and judging issues.

"I'm gonna pick Preston Parsons but not confidently"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jul 25, 2024 (2 days before fight)

Daniel picks Modestas Bukauskas inside the distance as his prop. He notes Bukauskas has good takedowns and back-takes from his Cage Warriors days, and expects him to work his grappling. He thinks there's a real chance of a ground-and-pound finish, and the inside distance line at +240 offers value.

Modestas Bukauskas inside the distance +240; also mentions submission line +1800 as tempting but not official
"I'm gonna take his inside the distance because even if he takes him down a bunch I think there's a real chance he gets a ground and pound finish instead"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Preston Parsons

Paul agrees with Cody, noting that Elliott's takedown defense is questionable and that Parsons' wrestling will be the difference. He mentions that Parsons has a clear game plan and that Elliott's love from the betting market is unwarranted.

"I don't really understand the OB and Elliott love to be perfectly honest."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 22, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Preston Parsons

The MMA Guru picks Preston Parsons, believing he is the better fighter with tougher competition. He notes Parsons' well-rounded game, including grappling and submission attempts, and his impressive win over Matthew Semelsberger. The Guru is less impressed with Oban Elliott's striking, calling it slow, and thinks Parsons will mix things up effectively. He acknowledges Elliott's size and potential but trusts Parsons' experience and skill.

"I just think Preston Parsons is better than him to be honest with you and I think Preston Parsons has fought better competition"
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2 · Jan 13, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Preston Parsons 0 28 of 69 40% 33 of 77 1 of 2 50% 2 0 3:08
Matthew Semelsberger 0 47 of 87 54% 116 of 165 7 of 11 63% 2 1 6:26
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Preston Parsons 0 11 of 29 37% 15 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:44
Matthew Semelsberger 0 20 of 35 57% 45 of 62 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:21
2 Preston Parsons 0 9 of 21 42% 10 of 23 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:30
Matthew Semelsberger 0 17 of 31 54% 36 of 53 4 of 5 80% 1 0 2:24
3 Preston Parsons 0 8 of 19 42% 8 of 19 0 of 0 --- 2 0 0:54
Matthew Semelsberger 0 10 of 21 47% 35 of 50 2 of 3 66% 1 1 3:41
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Preston Parsons 28 of 69 40% 18 of 55 4 of 8 6 of 6 23 of 60 3 of 7 2 of 2
Matthew Semelsberger 47 of 87 54% 25 of 62 9 of 11 13 of 14 25 of 59 11 of 13 11 of 15
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Preston Parsons 11 of 29 37% 5 of 20 1 of 4 5 of 5 11 of 27 0 of 2 0 of 0
Matthew Semelsberger 20 of 35 57% 5 of 19 7 of 8 8 of 8 17 of 30 3 of 4 0 of 1
2 Preston Parsons 9 of 21 42% 6 of 18 2 of 2 1 of 1 5 of 15 2 of 4 2 of 2
Matthew Semelsberger 17 of 31 54% 10 of 22 2 of 3 5 of 6 6 of 19 8 of 9 3 of 3
3 Preston Parsons 8 of 19 42% 7 of 17 1 of 2 0 of 0 7 of 18 1 of 1 0 of 0
Matthew Semelsberger 10 of 21 47% 10 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 10 0 of 0 8 of 11
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jan 6, 2024 (7 days before fight)
Preston Parsons

Angelo picks Preston Parsons as a slight underdog, hoping he can weather an early storm and get takedowns like Jeremiah Wells did. He acknowledges Parsons' cardio issues and Semelsberger's one-punch knockout power, which is why his bet is only a quarter unit. He also plans to bet Semelsberger inside the distance as a prop, believing Parsons won't submit him.

Quarter unit on Parsons moneyline at +105; plans to bet Semelsberger inside the distance (decision no action)
"I still picked him to win and I do have a small quarter of a unit bet on him at those plus 105 odds."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 8, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Matthew Semelsberger

Big Brady sees this as a striker vs. grappler matchup. He highlights Semelsberger's incredible power, having knocked down opponents in 7 of 9 UFC fights. He believes if Semelsberger stuffs takedowns, he will knock out Parsons brutally. Parsons' path is via submission, but Brady favors the power of Semelsberger.

first round knockout
"I'm going to take simburger to knock out Preston Parsons very brutally and do it in the first round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jan 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Preston Parsons

Cody picks Parsons, citing his wrestling advantage and full camp, while Semelsberger is on short notice. He notes Semelsberger's suspect chin and cardio due to weight cuts, and that Parsons can take him down and hold him down. He admits it's not a high-confidence play but likes the dog at plus money.

"the plus 110 on Preston Parsons I'll take it"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Jan 9, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Matthew Semelsberger

Daniel Vreeland leans with Matthew Semelsberger to knock out Preston Parsons. He acknowledges Semelsberger's power and knockdown rate, but worries about his tendency to end up on his back. Vreeland thinks if Semelsberger can avoid getting taken down, he will bust up Parsons standing. He hopes Semelsberger has fixed the mental issues that held him back.

"I think he's going to knock out Preston Parsons."
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Oct 1, 2025 (fight day)

James does not discuss this fight in the transcript.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 8, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Preston Parsons

Preston Parsons is a pressure grappler who uses relentless forward movement and takedowns to control opponents. He has a strong wrestling base and can grind out decisions. Matthew Semelsberger has power but has struggled against grapplers, as seen in the Jeremiah Wells fight where he was controlled on the mat. Parsons' pace and grappling should neutralize Semelsberger's striking. At plus 110, Parsons is a good value pick, and I expect him to win by decision through control and pressure.

Parsons by decision
"plus 110 I got to go with the dog here I think we're going to see Parsons go out there pick this fight up uh win this fight by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jan 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Preston Parsons

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Parsons as the wrestler on a full camp at plus money. He notes that Semelsberger has never impressed him and that Parsons has a clear path via wrestling. He mentions that Semelsberger's weight cut and short notice could be factors.

"give me the wrestler who's actually been on a full camp at plus 110"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Jan 9, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Matthew Semelsberger

The MMA Guru picks Matthew Semelsberger despite acknowledging his tendency to mess up TKO finishes. He notes Semelsberger's size, reach, and power, and believes he has a high likelihood of landing a big KO shot. He is not impressed by Preston Parsons, except for his win over Trevin Giles, which he attributes to Giles' mistakes.

likes the odds
"I'm going to go seberger much larger much longer reach as well dangerous on the feet... I'm going to go again against Preston Parsons and pick Matthew semelsberger here"
LOSS vs Trevin Giles
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Vera vs. Sandhagen · Mar 25, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Trevin Giles 0 55 of 108 50% 71 of 129 0 of 1 0% 0 2 4:14
Preston Parsons 0 42 of 95 44% 62 of 130 3 of 11 27% 3 1 5:16
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Trevin Giles 0 14 of 26 53% 17 of 29 0 of 1 0% 0 1 1:26
Preston Parsons 0 14 of 28 50% 23 of 43 0 of 3 0% 2 0 1:52
2 Trevin Giles 0 18 of 40 45% 29 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:23
Preston Parsons 0 13 of 32 40% 18 of 40 1 of 5 20% 0 1 1:30
3 Trevin Giles 0 23 of 42 54% 25 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:25
Preston Parsons 0 15 of 35 42% 21 of 47 2 of 3 66% 1 0 1:54
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Trevin Giles 55 of 108 50% 51 of 102 4 of 6 0 of 0 34 of 83 7 of 9 14 of 16
Preston Parsons 42 of 95 44% 24 of 77 6 of 6 12 of 12 34 of 84 7 of 10 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Trevin Giles 14 of 26 53% 14 of 25 0 of 1 0 of 0 9 of 20 2 of 2 3 of 4
Preston Parsons 14 of 28 50% 9 of 23 2 of 2 3 of 3 10 of 23 4 of 5 0 of 0
2 Trevin Giles 18 of 40 45% 15 of 36 3 of 4 0 of 0 12 of 31 1 of 3 5 of 6
Preston Parsons 13 of 32 40% 7 of 26 3 of 3 3 of 3 11 of 29 1 of 2 1 of 1
3 Trevin Giles 23 of 42 54% 22 of 41 1 of 1 0 of 0 13 of 32 4 of 4 6 of 6
Preston Parsons 15 of 35 42% 8 of 28 1 of 1 6 of 6 13 of 32 2 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Preston Parsons

Angelo picks Parsons, noting his slick grappling and the fact that he showed he can go three rounds in his last fight. He thinks Giles is overrated due to the Roman Dolidze win, which he argues Dolidze actually won. He believes Parsons will get the wrestling going and win, possibly inside the distance. He has a half-unit moneyline bet on Parsons at -105.

Half-unit moneyline bet on Parsons at -105; also considering takedown prop bets
"Preston Parsons is gonna be my pick I think he's gonna get the wrestling going."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Preston Parsons

Big Brady picks Preston Parsons by submission in the second round. He questions Trevin Giles' fight IQ, durability, and volume, noting that Giles has been finished in all four losses. Brady believes Parsons' pressure and cardio will break Giles, and that Giles' weight cut to 170 will hurt his gas tank. He expects Parsons to mix takedowns, get on top, and secure a submission.

Parsons by submission in round 2
"I like Parsons to make this a war honestly... I think Parsons eventually gets on top gets into a dominant position and gets a submission winning the second or third round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Preston Parsons

Cody picks Parsons, citing Giles' inconsistency, low output, and recent durability issues. He notes Parsons is younger, improving, and has solid wrestling. He worries about Texas judging but believes Parsons can edge out a decision or get a takedown. He calls it a 50/50 fight but leans Parsons.

Over 2.5 rounds (fight time over 10 minutes on PrizePicks)
"The pick I think would be Preston Parsons barring a bad judge's decision"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Mar 23, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Preston Parsons

Connor initially hesitates but ultimately sides with Zane's pick of Preston Parsons. He acknowledges that Parsons will eat a lot of straight punches early and that Giles is fast and a good straight puncher, but he doesn't trust Giles's application of his tools or his defensive absence at welterweight. Connor notes that Giles looked okay against Louis Cosce but not great, and he believes Parsons's physical pressure will be enough to exploit Giles's weaknesses.

Same odds commentary as Zane.
"I guess I'll side with you. I'm not that, I'll side with you."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Preston Parsons

Jacob also picks Parsons, agreeing that Giles is a good boxer but does not use his jab enough and struggles with pressure. He thinks Parsons will get in Giles' face, disrupt his striking, and win inside the distance. He says he is 'pressing Parsons all the way'.

"I'm pressing Parsons all the way."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Preston Parsons

The host likes Parsons' relentless grappling style and believes he can push a pace that Giles may not handle at welterweight. He notes Parsons showed good cardio in his last fight, and expects him to find a finish from top dominant position. He has questions about Giles' energy levels and weight cut.

"I'm gonna go Preston Parsons to win this fight with his Relentless grappling and I'm inevitably a finish from that top dominant position"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Trevin Giles

The Guru picks Giles, citing his experience and athleticism. He notes that Parsons hasn't fought since his debut and lacks a standout skill. He expects Giles to win by decision, using his physicality and technique.

"I'm going with Trevin Giles... I just think he's on average more athletic more dangerous and a bit better technically in most areas"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 23, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Preston Parsons

Zane picks Preston Parsons because he believes Trevin Giles's athletic advantages are less pronounced at welterweight and his defensive flaws are more exploitable. Giles backs up with his hands down and is prone to getting hurt, while Parsons is a pressuring bully who will walk through shots and wear Giles down. Zane notes that Giles has not knocked anyone out since 2017 and tends to gas when having success, making him vulnerable to Parsons's relentless pressure.

Odds: Giles opened at -110, currently -111; Parsons opened at -110, currently -111. Zane notes that Giles has not knocked anyone out since 2017 except Bevin Lewis.
"I'm still going to pick Parsons to win. Giles is just too hurtable."
WIN vs Evan Elder
Decision (unanimous) (30–26, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andrade · Apr 23, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Preston Parsons 0 75 of 112 66% 121 of 160 4 of 6 66% 5 1 7:48
Evan Elder 0 27 of 60 45% 34 of 67 0 of 2 0% 0 2 1:47
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Preston Parsons 0 16 of 28 57% 23 of 35 2 of 2 100% 2 0 2:16
Evan Elder 0 12 of 22 54% 15 of 25 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:35
2 Preston Parsons 0 16 of 25 64% 40 of 49 2 of 2 100% 2 1 2:55
Evan Elder 0 7 of 15 46% 8 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 2 0:52
3 Preston Parsons 0 43 of 59 72% 58 of 76 0 of 2 0% 1 0 2:37
Evan Elder 0 8 of 23 34% 11 of 26 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:20
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Preston Parsons 75 of 112 66% 60 of 94 9 of 11 6 of 7 33 of 58 7 of 11 35 of 43
Evan Elder 27 of 60 45% 12 of 43 11 of 12 4 of 5 26 of 58 1 of 1 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Preston Parsons 16 of 28 57% 13 of 24 2 of 3 1 of 1 12 of 23 2 of 3 2 of 2
Evan Elder 12 of 22 54% 5 of 15 6 of 6 1 of 1 11 of 21 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Preston Parsons 16 of 25 64% 12 of 21 2 of 2 2 of 2 9 of 15 0 of 2 7 of 8
Evan Elder 7 of 15 46% 3 of 11 2 of 2 2 of 2 7 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 1
3 Preston Parsons 43 of 59 72% 35 of 49 5 of 6 3 of 4 12 of 20 5 of 6 26 of 33
Evan Elder 8 of 23 34% 4 of 17 3 of 4 1 of 2 8 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 17, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Evan Elder

Angelo picks Evan Elder (referred to as Luis Cose, but likely Evan Elder given the matchup). He likes Elder's power and pressure, and thinks Parsons' takedowns aren't good enough to be a constant threat. He sees it as a sprawl-and-brawl matchup where Elder can settle in and let his hands go. He notes Elder was dominating his last fight before gassing.

"i like kosei to win a sprawl and brawl match up here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 20, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Evan Elder

Cody picks Elder, citing his striking and preparation for a grappler. He notes Parsons' one-dimensional grappling and tendency to get knocked out. He thinks Elder will stuff takedowns and land a knockout.

"the pick would be evan elder"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Apr 23, 2022 (fight day)
Evan Elder

The host picks Evan Elder in his quick picks list and includes the fight in his totals parlay under 1.5 rounds. He does not provide detailed reasoning for the pick.

Included in totals parlay under 1.5 rounds.
"evan elder"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 20, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Evan Elder

Paul agrees, noting Elder's training at Sanford MMA and preparation for a wrestler. He thinks Elder's striking will be too much for Parsons. He suggests Elder should be around -185 favorite.

"i would say that evan elder would probably be somewhere in the neighborhood of a minus 185 minus 200 favorite"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 19, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Evan Elder

The MMA Guru picks Evan Elder (referred to as 'Louis Coskey' in transcript, likely a mispronunciation) over Preston Parsons. He describes Elder as explosive and dangerous early, noting his debut loss but good performance. He criticizes Parsons for being unimpressive and easily handled by Daniel Rodriguez. He predicts Elder will be more patient this time and get a first-round KO, citing power difference. He mentions Elder's recent KO loss but believes he will bounce back.

first round KO
"i am going to be going with louis coskey here a very explosive guy in the early rounds very dangerous in the early rounds"
TKO (punches) R1 3:47 · UFC on ESPN: Makhachev vs. Moises · Jul 17, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Daniel Rodriguez 0 45 of 83 54% 46 of 84 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Preston Parsons 0 23 of 43 53% 24 of 44 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:15
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Daniel Rodriguez 0 45 of 83 54% 46 of 84 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Preston Parsons 0 23 of 43 53% 24 of 44 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:15
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Daniel Rodriguez 45 of 83 54% 36 of 72 2 of 4 7 of 7 38 of 69 1 of 2 6 of 12
Preston Parsons 23 of 43 53% 14 of 33 4 of 5 5 of 5 23 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Daniel Rodriguez 45 of 83 54% 36 of 72 2 of 4 7 of 7 38 of 69 1 of 2 6 of 12
Preston Parsons 23 of 43 53% 14 of 33 4 of 5 5 of 5 23 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 14, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Daniel Rodriguez

Cody is very confident in Daniel Rodriguez, noting his superior boxing, 10th Planet jiu-jitsu, and experience. He believes Preston Parsons is a can-crusher who has struggled against UFC-level competition. Cody has parlayed Rodriguez with Islam Makhachev, indicating high confidence.

parlay with Makhachev
"I don't really understand it all that much preston parsons obviously coming on short notice you go through his record you go through some of his fights and he looks very very dominant in some of his fights but it's …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 14, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Daniel Rodriguez

Paul sides with Daniel Rodriguez's experience and striking advantage, but he acknowledges that Preston Parsons is a physically strong grappler who could pose problems if he gets takedowns. He notes Rodriguez's questionable cardio and lack of tested grappling defense, but ultimately believes Rodriguez should win.

"I think you got to side with the experience of daniel rodriguez."
Expert Picks (6)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Preston Parsons

Angelo picks Preston Parsons, expecting him to dive for takedowns and either submit or decision Oban Elliott. He notes that Oban is well-rounded but not dangerous, and Parsons has 9 submissions in 11 wins. Angelo acknowledges the fight could be boring but believes Parsons will get the grappling going and win.

"I'm going to go with Preston I think he's diving at legs I think he gets it to the ground probably 50/50 if he subs or decisions"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Preston Parsons

Cody picks Preston Parsons, citing his relentless pressure, grappling, and power. He notes that Oban Elliott was taken down by Val Woodburn, which is a red flag, and that Parsons has better wrestling and cardio. Cody believes Parsons can grind out a win or even knock Elliott out.

"I gotta go with Preston Parsons uh honestly he's got some legitimate skills guy that shows up every time and he's just a go go go go type guy."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jul 25, 2024 (2 days before fight)
No clear pick

Daniel picks Modestas Bukauskas inside the distance as his prop. He notes Bukauskas has good takedowns and back-takes from his Cage Warriors days, and expects him to work his grappling. He thinks there's a real chance of a ground-and-pound finish, and the inside distance line at +240 offers value.

Modestas Bukauskas inside the distance +240; also mentions submission line +1800 as tempting but not official
"I'm gonna take his inside the distance because even if he takes him down a bunch I think there's a real chance he gets a ground and pound finish instead"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Preston Parsons

Daniel thinks Preston Parsons is more battle-tested and has faced better competition. He notes Oban Elliott is unathletic and boring but tough. He picks Parsons but not confidently, citing potential jet lag and judging issues.

"I'm gonna pick Preston Parsons but not confidently"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Preston Parsons

Paul agrees with Cody, noting that Elliott's takedown defense is questionable and that Parsons' wrestling will be the difference. He mentions that Parsons has a clear game plan and that Elliott's love from the betting market is unwarranted.

"I don't really understand the OB and Elliott love to be perfectly honest."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 22, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Preston Parsons

The MMA Guru picks Preston Parsons, believing he is the better fighter with tougher competition. He notes Parsons' well-rounded game, including grappling and submission attempts, and his impressive win over Matthew Semelsberger. The Guru is less impressed with Oban Elliott's striking, calling it slow, and thinks Parsons will mix things up effectively. He acknowledges Elliott's size and potential but trusts Parsons' experience and skill.

"I just think Preston Parsons is better than him to be honest with you and I think Preston Parsons has fought better competition"