vs
-400 +380
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · Jul 27, 2024 · Featherweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 Next Fight
Age 33
Height 5' 6"
Reach 69.0"
Weight 145 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 40
Height 5' 7"
Reach 69.0"
Weight 145 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Nathaniel Wood
5.64 SLpM
51.0% Str. Acc.
4.25 SApM
54.0% Str. Def.
1.35 TD Avg
48.0% TD Acc.
73.0% TD Def.
0.5 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Daniel Pineda
2.85 SLpM
49.0% Str. Acc.
3.26 SApM
45.0% Str. Def.
1.42 TD Avg
24.0% TD Acc.
54.0% TD Def.
1.5 Sub. Avg
Nathaniel Wood
Moneyline
FanDuel -400
KO/TKO
BetRivers +210
Submission
BetRivers +325
Decision
FanDuel +260
Daniel Pineda
Moneyline
Caesars +380
KO/TKO
BetRivers +1100
Submission
FanDuel +1000
Decision
BetRivers +1200
Nathaniel Wood - Fight History
WIN vs Losene Keita
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy · Mar 21, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nathaniel Wood 0 67 of 178 37% 67 of 178 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Losene Keita 0 52 of 119 43% 52 of 119 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nathaniel Wood 0 17 of 56 30% 17 of 56 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Losene Keita 0 11 of 26 42% 11 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Nathaniel Wood 0 19 of 56 33% 19 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Losene Keita 0 23 of 42 54% 23 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Nathaniel Wood 0 31 of 66 46% 31 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Losene Keita 0 18 of 51 35% 18 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nathaniel Wood 67 of 178 37% 32 of 128 2 of 3 33 of 47 67 of 177 0 of 1 0 of 0
Losene Keita 52 of 119 43% 36 of 101 13 of 15 3 of 3 52 of 119 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nathaniel Wood 17 of 56 30% 7 of 42 2 of 3 8 of 11 17 of 55 0 of 1 0 of 0
Losene Keita 11 of 26 42% 8 of 22 3 of 4 0 of 0 11 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Nathaniel Wood 19 of 56 33% 9 of 42 0 of 0 10 of 14 19 of 56 0 of 0 0 of 0
Losene Keita 23 of 42 54% 14 of 32 7 of 8 2 of 2 23 of 42 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Nathaniel Wood 31 of 66 46% 16 of 44 0 of 0 15 of 22 31 of 66 0 of 0 0 of 0
Losene Keita 18 of 51 35% 14 of 47 3 of 3 1 of 1 18 of 51 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Losene Keita

Angelo picks Losene Keita because of his devastating striking and fast sprawls, but he is not betting on him. He notes Keita missed weight in his debut and is untested, while Nathaniel Wood is a proven tough veteran who gets dropped. He respects Wood's toughness but thinks Keita's power could put him out cold. He avoids betting due to the -170 price and weight miss concerns.

no bets; -170 too high given weight miss and untested competition
"I'm gonna pick him. I'm not betting on him. No parlays, nothing. Zero bets whatsoever on Line here. Minus 170 when he missed weight in what was supposed to be his UFC debut against a guy like Nathaniel Wood, a …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Mar 16, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Big Brady picks Nathaniel Wood as a live dog, but he is hesitant because Wood has been dropped in many fights and Keita hits very hard. He notes that Wood has incredible volume, can mix in takedowns, and has good recovery, but his chin is a concern. He thinks if Wood doesn't get knocked out, he will win a decision as the hometown favorite. He calls this the best fight on the card and expects it to be a war.

Nathaniel Wood by decision
"Give me Nathaniel Wood here to win this fight. I'll take him to win the fight by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Mar 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Cody leans toward Wood, noting Keita's layoff and weight cut, but is not fully confident. He sees value in Wood as an underdog.

"I I I feel like I'm leaning towards Wood to be honest. Uh, but is there any great reason? I don't know."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Connor picks Nathaniel Wood, emphasizing Wood's technical edge everywhere and his ability to handle athletic opponents like Delgado and Shariay. He notes that Keita is a one-dimensional pressure fighter who doesn't cut off the cage or use a jab effectively. Connor believes Wood can weather Keita's power and figure him out, but warns that Wood's tendency to initiate grappling could be risky if Keita overpowers him.

Odds comment: Wood opened at -110, now +197; Keita opened -110, now -232. Connor thinks Wood should be a slight favorite.
"I mean, I think wood wins, especially recently over Delgado and Shariay. Like he's very capable of handling very athletic opponents who do not either have consistent in Shariay's case or nuanced ways of going after him in Delgado's case."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Losene Keita

Daniel picks Keita (Radzhabov) to knock out Wood. He notes Wood's chin issues and that Keita is a dynamic finisher with patience. He thinks Wood will have early success but Keita will land a devastating shot. He expects a round two KO.

Fight KO +150, wins by KO in round two +625
"I think Kade is going to knock him out. ... Round two KO in my eyes."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Mar 17, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Losene Keita

Daniel Vreeland picks Losene Keita to win his UFC debut. He notes Keita's power and athleticism, and Wood's tendency to get hit early. He thinks Keita can knock Wood out or win a damage-based decision, but acknowledges the risk of debut jitters.

"I'm going to pick Los Sanada to come out here and win his UFC debut."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Wood is ruthlessly consistent, has home advantage, and will push a high pace. Keita is more technical but untested at this level. Wood's toughness and cardio should overwhelm Keita late. The odds are wide; all value is on Wood.

Prefers fight spread +3.5 over moneyline for insurance; fight likely goes over 2.5 rounds.
"All the value lies with Wood here."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Mar 15, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

James picks Nathaniel Wood, but admits bias as he considers Wood a friend. He thinks Wood is well-rounded and tough, but Keita has power and physicality. He expects a competitive fight and thinks it could end inside the distance.

under 2.5 rounds (speculative)
"I'm going to root for Nathaniel Wood as always and I'm hoping he gets it done."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 17, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Losene Keita

The host is confident in Losene Keita winning by knockout. He highlights Keita's explosive power, speed, and takedown defense, while Wood is seen as having no significant grappling edge. He expects Keita to close the distance and land big shots, putting Wood away. He feels good about Keita at -220.

"I'm going to take Ka and Ka by knockout. And I feel pretty damn good about him, especially at minus 220."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Paul fades the hyped prospect Keita, citing Wood's experience, durability, and ability to keep fights close. He expects Wood to win a close decision in London.

"I'm actually going to fade the highly touted European prospect for the guy a little I'm a little more uh comfortable with than Nathaniel Wood."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Losene Keita

The MMA Guru picks Losene Keita to TKO Nathaniel Wood in the first round. He notes Wood often gets hurt and has been in close fights, while Keita is explosive, powerful, and huge for featherweight. He believes Keita's follow-up shots are nastier than Wood's previous opponents, and he will finish Wood when he hurts him.

TKO finish in round one
"I think he's going to TKO and finish Nathaniel Wood in round one."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Zane picks Nathaniel Wood, citing Wood's technical superiority in striking, wrestling, and grappling. He notes that Keita is a raw athlete with power but lacks tactical nuance, often just walking opponents down and throwing right hands. Zane compares Keita to Vinicius Oliveira and believes Wood can stick and move to victory, though he acknowledges Wood's tendency to make fights hard on himself.

Odds comment: Wood opened at -110, now +197; Keita opened -110, now -232. Zane thinks the fight should be closer to dead even and that Wood should be a slight favorite.
"I have to take wood here, but it is what makes every fight hard on himself. That's that is just what he does. So I cannot pick wood and say he's absolutely going to make this easy."
WIN vs Jose Delgado
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 321 · Oct 25, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nathaniel Wood 1 99 of 176 56% 101 of 178 2 of 3 66% 0 0 0:58
Jose Delgado 1 134 of 232 57% 141 of 239 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:28
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nathaniel Wood 1 24 of 59 40% 25 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Jose Delgado 1 68 of 111 61% 75 of 118 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:54
2 Nathaniel Wood 0 36 of 61 59% 37 of 62 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:38
Jose Delgado 0 29 of 55 52% 29 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Nathaniel Wood 0 39 of 56 69% 39 of 56 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:17
Jose Delgado 0 37 of 66 56% 37 of 66 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:34
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nathaniel Wood 99 of 176 56% 63 of 124 7 of 8 29 of 44 88 of 159 7 of 10 4 of 7
Jose Delgado 134 of 232 57% 92 of 178 35 of 46 7 of 8 100 of 190 14 of 16 20 of 26
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nathaniel Wood 24 of 59 40% 15 of 43 2 of 2 7 of 14 19 of 50 2 of 4 3 of 5
Jose Delgado 68 of 111 61% 48 of 88 16 of 19 4 of 4 43 of 80 5 of 5 20 of 26
2 Nathaniel Wood 36 of 61 59% 25 of 44 1 of 2 10 of 15 33 of 57 3 of 4 0 of 0
Jose Delgado 29 of 55 52% 20 of 43 7 of 10 2 of 2 24 of 49 5 of 6 0 of 0
3 Nathaniel Wood 39 of 56 69% 23 of 37 4 of 4 12 of 15 36 of 52 2 of 2 1 of 2
Jose Delgado 37 of 66 56% 24 of 47 12 of 17 1 of 2 33 of 61 4 of 5 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 19, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Angelo picks Nathaniel Wood as an underdog, emphasizing his superior experience and resume with wins over fighters like John Castañeda, Charles Jourdain, and Andre Fili. He believes Wood is faster, busier, and more tested than Jose Delgado, who has only been a finisher and hasn't faced adversity. Angelo placed a half-unit bet on Wood at plus 133 odds.

I actually threw a little itty-bitty teeny-weeny half a unit on him at these plus 133 odds
"Nathaniel's faster. I think he's busier. He's certainly more experienced. Jose has only been a hammer. I'm interested to see what happens if he's the nail for a few minutes here. Nathaniel's going to be the pick."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jose Delgado

Big Brady picks Jose Delgado but with low confidence, calling it a 'minute winner vs moment winner' fight. He acknowledges Nathaniel Wood is more experienced and talented, with good striking, volume, and cardio. However, Wood is a small bantamweight moving up, has been hurt often, and Delgado has a 100% finish rate with significant power. Brady believes Delgado's power will eventually catch Wood's chin, predicting a second-round KO.

Delgado by second round KO
"I'm going to go with Delgado. Not a ton of confidence in him. I do like Delgado quite a bit as a prospect, but this is a massive test for him. Give me Jose Delgado to win. And I'll say …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jose Delgado

Cody picks Jose Delgado, citing his height and reach advantage and powerful knees up the middle. He notes that Wood is short for 145 and has been knocked out before, and Delgado's striking is dynamic. Cody believes Delgado will win by KO, possibly early.

Delgado by KO
"I'm on I'm I'm going to end up on the uh on the Delgado side as well in this fight. What Delgado KO? Delgado KO, yeah."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Oct 24, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Jose Delgado

Connor picks Delgado based on a gut feeling, noting his fluid striking, calmness under pressure, and natural finishing instinct. He acknowledges that Wood is more proven but believes Delgado's flow and confidence could overwhelm Wood, especially if Wood loses focus as he did against Sharaa. Connor also notes that Wood tends to get crushed in moments and that Delgado is dangerous.

Delgado opened at +130, now -140; Wood opened -150, now +120.
"Honestly, my gut is kind of telling me to pick Delgado, it's a wild shot. He has not proven nearly as much as Nathaniel Wood has. But you feel very dangerous."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jose Delgado

Daniel Vreeland is high on Delgado's size, power, and finishing ability, and believes he is ready for this step up. He notes that Wood is smaller (former bantamweight), gets hurt often, and has mentioned retirement, which could affect his focus. He thinks Delgado's training at MMA Lab will help him handle Wood's leg kicks, and that Delgado's pressure and size will overwhelm Wood.

"I think that José Delgado's ready for this test. It's gonna be a tough fight, but I think at some point in this fight, Delgato can hurt Wood."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

The host likes Wood in this spot, expecting him to thwart Delgado's power striking, be competitive on the feet, and use grappling opportunities to grind out a decision win.

decision
"I do like me some wood in this spot as I think that he's going to do a solid job of thwarting the power striking of Delgato..."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jose Delgado

Paul also picks Delgado, noting his training at MMA Lab and his dangerous knees. He believes Wood's chin may be compromised after moving up in weight, and Delgado's power will be too much. Paul suggests Delgado KO prop at plus 250 as a good bet.

Delgado by KO (+250)
"I think Wood may be in for a canvas nap."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 21, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Jose Delgado

The MMA Guru picks Jose Delgado by TKO in round two or late round one. He believes Delgado is a large featherweight with finishing ability, while Nathaniel Wood is small for the division and has been hurt in fights before. He notes that Wood often lets fights get too competitive and has been nearly finished by Charles Rosa and Andre Fili. He expects Delgado's knee up the middle and wild shots to catch Wood, and that Wood's clinch escapes won't work against a bigger opponent.

TKO round two or late round one
"I'm going to go with Jose Delgado to get a finish here over Nathaniel Wood, I reckon."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Oct 24, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Jose Delgado

Zane agrees with Connor, citing Delgado's smooth, flowing striking and ability to adapt. He notes that Wood has a tendency to lose focus in striking exchanges and that Delgado's pressure could cause Wood to revert to wrestling, which may not be enough. Zane also points out that Delgado has a natural feel for striking and has shown he can handle pressure.

"I'm going to go with you on this and I hate to do it because like wood really should be getting a lot more out of his career than this."
CANCEL vs Rolando Delgado
UFC 321 · Oct 25, 2025
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Oct 20, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Lucrative James picks Nathaniel Wood, but admits bias as Wood is a friend. He believes Wood is the better technical striker and can win on the feet, while Delgado has power but questionable cardio and has been dropped before. He notes Delgado's only loss came via wrestling, but Wood is not a wrestler. He expects a competitive fight but leans Wood due to superior striking.

"Of course, I'm rooting for Nathan. Of course, I'm picking Nathan here. He's the better striker."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · Mar 22, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nathaniel Wood 1 72 of 119 60% 89 of 136 0 of 0 --- 1 0 1:00
Morgan Charrière 0 42 of 94 44% 69 of 125 1 of 3 33% 0 1 3:24
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nathaniel Wood 1 15 of 26 57% 31 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:51
Morgan Charrière 0 5 of 10 50% 30 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 1 2:40
2 Nathaniel Wood 0 35 of 51 68% 36 of 52 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:09
Morgan Charrière 0 18 of 38 47% 20 of 40 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:44
3 Nathaniel Wood 0 22 of 42 52% 22 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Morgan Charrière 0 19 of 46 41% 19 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nathaniel Wood 72 of 119 60% 42 of 80 5 of 8 25 of 31 62 of 104 3 of 4 7 of 11
Morgan Charrière 42 of 94 44% 21 of 64 13 of 18 8 of 12 37 of 87 3 of 3 2 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nathaniel Wood 15 of 26 57% 9 of 17 1 of 1 5 of 8 8 of 15 0 of 0 7 of 11
Morgan Charrière 5 of 10 50% 2 of 5 0 of 0 3 of 5 3 of 6 0 of 0 2 of 4
2 Nathaniel Wood 35 of 51 68% 21 of 35 4 of 5 10 of 11 32 of 48 3 of 3 0 of 0
Morgan Charrière 18 of 38 47% 9 of 28 8 of 8 1 of 2 16 of 36 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Nathaniel Wood 22 of 42 52% 12 of 28 0 of 2 10 of 12 22 of 41 0 of 1 0 of 0
Morgan Charrière 19 of 46 41% 10 of 31 5 of 10 4 of 5 18 of 45 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 16, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Morgan Charrière

Angelo picks Morgan Charrière, comparing him to a French version of Chito Vera. He believes Charrière's pressure, pace, and wrestling will be the difference. He notes that if Charrière fights Wood the same way Muhammad Naimov did (minus the fouls), he'll get a win. He acknowledges Wood is good but favors Charrière's style.

"I like Morgan sherier to win"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Mar 18, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Brady calls this a very close fight with split decision written all over it. He favors Wood's volume and thinks the judges might give hometown cooking to Wood. He notes Charrière is the split decision king (losing them) and predicts Wood wins a close decision.

Wood by decision
"I'm going to take wood here just to do a little bit more and I'll say Morgan shé loses his like 50th decision"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Mar 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Morgan Charrière

Connor picks Charrière, agreeing with Zane. He highlights Wood's fatal flaw of trying to do everything, which will allow Charrière to react and scramble. Charrière's aggression and durability, as shown in the Mario Bautista fight, make him a tough matchup. Connor believes Charrière's physicality and willingness to scrap will edge out Wood's technical but flawed game.

Charrière opened at -193, currently -144; Wood opened at +147, currently +128.
"I got a picture. Yeah, love it. Love it."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

The host believes featherweight is Wood's ideal weight class, and he will showcase his output advantage and slick grappling to keep Charrière on the defensive. Wood's activity level will lead to an optical win on the scorecards.

"I think we'll see him showcase his output advantage as well as some slick grappling that could keep Cher on the defensive for the most part."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Morgan Charrière

The Guru picks Morgan Charrière, believing that Nathaniel Wood's tendency to get badly hurt in fights will eventually catch up to him. He notes that Charrière has nasty finishing instincts and will capitalize if he hurts Wood. He expects Wood to be winning on the feet initially, but then disaster strikes and Charrière gets a TKO in the second or third round.

TKO round 2 or 3
"I'm going to go with Morgan sharer getting this one done"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Mar 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Morgan Charrière

Zane picks Charrière, citing his athleticism and ability to handle Wood's multifaceted game. He believes Wood's tendency to overcomplicate and insist on wrestling will play into Charrière's strengths, as Charrière is difficult to outwrestle and comfortable in the pocket. He notes Wood's losses to athletic fighters and expects Charrière's physicality to be decisive.

Charrière opened at -193, currently -144; Wood opened at +147, currently +128. Zane says the line feels just right.
"It just feels like sharia is probably too athletic for wood ... I'm kind of just making a physicality pick for sharia."
WIN vs Daniel Pineda
Decision (unanimous) (29–27, 29–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · Jul 27, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nathaniel Wood 1 66 of 93 70% 81 of 110 0 of 0 --- 1 1 3:42
Daniel Pineda 0 32 of 69 46% 80 of 125 1 of 6 16% 0 2 5:32
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nathaniel Wood 0 15 of 21 71% 24 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:09
Daniel Pineda 0 13 of 18 72% 30 of 37 0 of 2 0% 0 1 1:47
2 Nathaniel Wood 1 42 of 61 68% 47 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:22
Daniel Pineda 0 12 of 36 33% 24 of 49 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:04
3 Nathaniel Wood 0 9 of 11 81% 10 of 12 0 of 0 --- 1 1 0:11
Daniel Pineda 0 7 of 15 46% 26 of 39 1 of 1 100% 0 1 3:41
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nathaniel Wood 66 of 93 70% 35 of 56 12 of 14 19 of 23 55 of 79 0 of 0 11 of 14
Daniel Pineda 32 of 69 46% 21 of 53 3 of 5 8 of 11 19 of 53 2 of 2 11 of 14
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nathaniel Wood 15 of 21 71% 8 of 14 3 of 3 4 of 4 11 of 16 0 of 0 4 of 5
Daniel Pineda 13 of 18 72% 10 of 14 0 of 1 3 of 3 4 of 8 0 of 0 9 of 10
2 Nathaniel Wood 42 of 61 68% 22 of 37 8 of 9 12 of 15 35 of 52 0 of 0 7 of 9
Daniel Pineda 12 of 36 33% 5 of 26 2 of 3 5 of 7 11 of 35 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Nathaniel Wood 9 of 11 81% 5 of 5 1 of 2 3 of 4 9 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Daniel Pineda 7 of 15 46% 6 of 13 1 of 1 0 of 1 4 of 10 1 of 1 2 of 4
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Angelo picks Nathaniel Wood as the biggest favorite on the card, citing Wood's superior striking, grappling, and durability. He notes that Daniel Pineda is dangerous early but fades quickly, and Wood only needs to survive the first few minutes. Angelo believes Wood is better everywhere and is safe to parlay.

"Nathaniel is the pick and probably safe to Parlay"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Cody picks Nathaniel Wood, citing his technical striking, cardio, and improving wrestling. He notes that Daniel Pineda is a dangerous first-round fighter but fades quickly, and that Wood can survive the early onslaught and take over in later rounds. Cody believes Wood can win by decision or late finish, and suggests waiting for a better live price after the first round.

"I think Nathaniel would maybe either buy either it's going to be a decision or I do again see him maybe finishing off finishing off pan late in the third round could be by TKO could be by submission."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Daniel thinks Nathaniel Wood is better everywhere but has a questionable chin. He notes Daniel Pineda is a kill-or-be-killed fighter with all wins by finish, but 0-6 in decisions. He expects Wood to weather an early storm and win a decision if he survives.

"I think Nathaniel wood probably wins the decision here"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Paul agrees with Cody, expecting Wood to win. He notes that Pineda's best chance is early, and he might sprinkle on Pineda by submission in round one at long odds. However, he believes Wood's volume and cardio will be too much as the fight goes on.

Daniel Pineda by submission in round 1 (small sprinkle)
"I'll probably throw a small little sprink because I'm a I'm a sick degenerate Cody I'll probably have like a small little sprinkle on P round one at plus 1,000."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 22, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

The MMA Guru picks Nathaniel Wood, calling Daniel Pineda 'trash' and a former PED user. He believes Wood is levels above Pineda in skill, especially on the feet, and will win the low kick battle, which is key to Pineda's game. Wood's recent grappling win over Alex Caceres shows his well-roundedness. The Guru sympathizes with Wood's bad luck in past fights and expects him to win decisively.

"I'm going to go with Nathaniel wood I think Daniel Pan's trash former ped CH well always a ped CH but um got caught on Peds when he came to the UFC"
LOSS vs Muhammad Naimov
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · Oct 21, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Muhammad Naimov 0 50 of 72 69% 70 of 94 2 of 7 28% 0 0 2:44
Nathaniel Wood 0 48 of 81 59% 100 of 140 4 of 9 44% 0 1 6:42
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Muhammad Naimov 0 10 of 17 58% 17 of 26 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:45
Nathaniel Wood 0 18 of 28 64% 49 of 64 1 of 3 33% 0 1 2:37
2 Muhammad Naimov 0 1 of 1 100% 6 of 6 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:32
Nathaniel Wood 0 11 of 13 84% 30 of 34 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:59
3 Muhammad Naimov 0 39 of 54 72% 47 of 62 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:27
Nathaniel Wood 0 19 of 40 47% 21 of 42 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:06
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Muhammad Naimov 50 of 72 69% 37 of 57 6 of 7 7 of 8 36 of 56 5 of 6 9 of 10
Nathaniel Wood 48 of 81 59% 31 of 60 10 of 13 7 of 8 24 of 48 11 of 14 13 of 19
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Muhammad Naimov 10 of 17 58% 4 of 10 1 of 2 5 of 5 8 of 15 2 of 2 0 of 0
Nathaniel Wood 18 of 28 64% 13 of 21 3 of 4 2 of 3 6 of 11 5 of 5 7 of 12
2 Muhammad Naimov 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0
Nathaniel Wood 11 of 13 84% 4 of 6 4 of 4 3 of 3 1 of 1 4 of 5 6 of 7
3 Muhammad Naimov 39 of 54 72% 32 of 46 5 of 5 2 of 3 28 of 41 2 of 3 9 of 10
Nathaniel Wood 19 of 40 47% 14 of 33 3 of 5 2 of 2 17 of 36 2 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Oct 15, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Angelo picks Nathaniel Wood but doesn't love the odds at 3-to-1. He trusts Wood's durability after the war with Andre Fili and his takedown defense. He worries about Naimov's power and the fact that Naimov is untested at 145 with a full camp. Wood is not in any of his parlays, indicating lower confidence.

"Wood's going to be the pick here I I think these less risky spots on this card to bet"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Big Brady picks Nathaniel Wood to win by decision. He highlights Wood's high volume (over 6 significant strikes per minute), solid wrestling, and ability to dictate where the fight takes place. The main concern is Wood's chin, as he has been dropped and finished before, giving Naimov a puncher's chance. However, Brady believes Wood will win a clear 30-27 decision if his durability holds.

decision
"I got to go Nathaniel wood here and I got to take Nathaniel wood to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Cody picks Wood, emphasizing his speed, wrestling, and volume. He notes that Naimov is a one-dimensional power puncher who lost to Colin Anglin. Cody believes Wood's skill set will overwhelm Naimov, but he acknowledges the power threat.

"Nathaniel wood is the pick but he could be the pie fucker"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 19, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Daniel picks Nathaniel Wood to win, acknowledging that Wood is a much better fighter overall but is in a high-risk, low-reward spot against a dangerous opponent. He notes Wood's chin issues and the letdown spot after fighting higher-ranked opponents. He believes Wood should win clearly but warns that Naimov is KO or bust and could catch Wood. He still picks Wood but is cautious.

Wood minus 330, Naimov plus 270; mentions Wood's chin and the letdown spot
"I still think he should clearly win I think he's way better than this guy I think he owns this guy um but yeah n mob's dangerous."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Wood is the more complete fighter with relevant experience. At featherweight, he doesn't have to cut extra weight and can use his speed and footwork to stay away from Naimov's power. Expects Wood to put on a masterclass from striking to takedowns to Jiu-Jitsu, winning by decision.

"I'm fully expecting would to go out there and put on a master class against naov from his striking to his takedowns to even his Jiu-Jitsu"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Paul picks Wood but is hesitant due to Wood's durability issues. He notes that Wood is faster and more skilled, but Naimov has power and could knock him out. Paul expects Wood to win if he avoids big shots, but he is worried about the chin.

Naimov by KO (+600) as a sprinkle
"Wood's the pick just don't love it for the kind of money line you're getting"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 16, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

The MMA Guru picks Nathaniel Wood by late rounds TKO, specifically in the third round. He argues that Wood's technical striking, high guard, and tucked chin will make it difficult for Naimov to land a knockout. He also notes that Wood's shorter stature will help him stuff takedowns and counter Naimov's big shots. He dismisses Naimov's upset win over Jamie Mullarkey because Mullarkey's striking defense was poor.

Wood wins in round 3 by TKO
"I think Nathaniel Wood's going to win this fight I'm going to go by late rounds TKO after n of his swinging and missing quite a bit and landing on the guard I think Nathaniel wood gets this one done …"
WIN vs Andre Fili
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura · Jul 22, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nathaniel Wood 1 84 of 148 56% 108 of 174 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:47
Andre Fili 1 58 of 151 38% 76 of 179 0 of 2 0% 0 1 2:55
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nathaniel Wood 1 37 of 69 53% 37 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:23
Andre Fili 0 17 of 49 34% 20 of 52 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Nathaniel Wood 0 10 of 15 66% 34 of 41 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:24
Andre Fili 1 17 of 34 50% 32 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 1 2:55
3 Nathaniel Wood 0 37 of 64 57% 37 of 64 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Andre Fili 0 24 of 68 35% 24 of 68 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nathaniel Wood 84 of 148 56% 38 of 90 10 of 18 36 of 40 71 of 123 0 of 0 13 of 25
Andre Fili 58 of 151 38% 45 of 134 7 of 10 6 of 7 53 of 144 3 of 5 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nathaniel Wood 37 of 69 53% 21 of 48 4 of 7 12 of 14 24 of 44 0 of 0 13 of 25
Andre Fili 17 of 49 34% 15 of 45 0 of 2 2 of 2 17 of 49 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Nathaniel Wood 10 of 15 66% 4 of 9 1 of 1 5 of 5 10 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Andre Fili 17 of 34 50% 14 of 31 2 of 2 1 of 1 12 of 27 3 of 5 2 of 2
3 Nathaniel Wood 37 of 64 57% 13 of 33 5 of 10 19 of 21 37 of 64 0 of 0 0 of 0
Andre Fili 24 of 68 35% 16 of 58 5 of 6 3 of 4 24 of 68 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Angelo picks Nathaniel Wood, believing a healthy Wood beats an inconsistent Andre Fili. He notes Wood's injury was just a cut, not a knee issue, so he should be fine. He does not bet the moneyline but may explore props because Fili is better than the odds suggest.

may explore props
"I think a full-blown healthy Nathaniel would probably beats an inconsistent Andre feeling"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jul 18, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Big Brady picks Nathaniel Wood by decision, citing hometown advantage and volume striking. He notes Wood is undersized with a reach disadvantage but throws high volume (6.34 sig strikes/min). He thinks Wood can mix in takedowns and that close decisions will favor the London fighter. He admits the line should be closer.

by decision
"give me wood to win this fight I think it's gonna be close potentially even a split decision of this one but I think wood wins it by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 19, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Cody picks Wood based on volume advantage, noting Wood lands over 97 significant strikes in recent fights while Fili's career high is 98. He thinks Wood's wrestling and pressure will overwhelm Fili, and that Wood's chin issues were due to weight cuts at 135. He expects a 30-27 decision.

Wood by decision at +120, Wood over 76.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks
"Nathaniel would and like want to say he's one of them more confident picks on the card because I believe he is"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 20, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Daniel made this his first bet of the card, taking Nathaniel Wood at -180 to win 2 units. He highlights Wood's pace and volume advantage, noting Fili has never landed 100 significant strikes in a UFC fight while Wood has exceeded 130 multiple times. He believes Wood's calf kicks and pressure will neutralize Fili's reach, and that Wood's improved chin at featherweight (no longer cutting to bantamweight) is a key factor. He acknowledges the threat of Fili's head kick but trusts Wood's game plan to close distance and outwork him.

Daniel bet Wood at -180 to win 2 units. He mentions Wood's volume advantage and Fili's lack of output.
"I took Nathaniel wood at -180 and I played it to win two units"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jul 18, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

James picks Nathaniel Wood to win, calling this a potential coming-out party for him. He notes that Wood has deserved a big win and that Fili doesn't always rise to the occasion. He mentions that Wood is fighting in his hometown of London and that he thinks Wood will rise to the occasion. James acknowledges his bias as he is friendly with Wood but still believes in his skills.

"I do think this is could be his coming out party you know he's deserved one for a while"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

The host picks Nathaniel Wood, citing his improved cardio at featherweight, patient striking, and ground game. He believes Wood's overall game will be too much for Fili, who struggles against higher competition. He predicts a decision win for Wood.

"give me Nathaniel wood to win this fight by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 19, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Paul agrees with Cody on volume, noting Fili lacks knockout power and has durability issues. He thinks Wood's wrestling advantage and pace will be key. He also likes Wood by decision and the over on significant strikes.

Wood by decision at +120, Wood over 76.5 significant strikes
"I think it comes down to volume"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

The MMA Guru picks Nathaniel Wood, calling it a no-brainer. He praises Wood's leg kicks, noting he may hold the record for most leg kicks landed in a fight. He criticizes Andre Fili's recent decline and skinny legs, and believes Wood's high guard will defend against head kicks. The Guru expects Wood to bust up Fili's lead leg and win by decision or late TKO.

"Gotta go Nathaniel wood here in my opinion no-brainer"
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Tuivasa · Sep 03, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nathaniel Wood 0 86 of 203 42% 115 of 232 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:24
Charles Jourdain 0 97 of 202 48% 128 of 234 5 of 8 62% 0 0 4:30
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nathaniel Wood 0 23 of 55 41% 30 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Charles Jourdain 0 26 of 51 50% 36 of 61 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:50
2 Nathaniel Wood 0 35 of 78 44% 43 of 86 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:06
Charles Jourdain 0 35 of 80 43% 54 of 100 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:35
3 Nathaniel Wood 0 28 of 70 40% 42 of 84 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:18
Charles Jourdain 0 36 of 71 50% 38 of 73 3 of 5 60% 0 0 1:05
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nathaniel Wood 86 of 203 42% 56 of 165 29 of 36 1 of 2 55 of 166 30 of 36 1 of 1
Charles Jourdain 97 of 202 48% 61 of 157 14 of 21 22 of 24 78 of 174 16 of 22 3 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nathaniel Wood 23 of 55 41% 17 of 47 5 of 7 1 of 1 16 of 48 7 of 7 0 of 0
Charles Jourdain 26 of 51 50% 16 of 39 3 of 4 7 of 8 23 of 47 3 of 4 0 of 0
2 Nathaniel Wood 35 of 78 44% 23 of 64 12 of 14 0 of 0 25 of 65 9 of 12 1 of 1
Charles Jourdain 35 of 80 43% 22 of 62 5 of 9 8 of 9 30 of 70 4 of 7 1 of 3
3 Nathaniel Wood 28 of 70 40% 16 of 54 12 of 15 0 of 1 14 of 53 14 of 17 0 of 0
Charles Jourdain 36 of 71 50% 23 of 56 6 of 8 7 of 7 25 of 57 9 of 11 2 of 3
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Charles Jourdain vs. Nathaniel Wood
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Jourdain (-135), Wood (+115)

Round 1
The main card should start off with a bang, if Jourdain (13-5-1, 4-4-1 UFC) and Wood (18-5, 5-2 UFC) have anything to say about it. The Canadian has leaned into his French-speaking side this week, acting as an adopted French fighter, and the crowd is clearly on his side for this featherweight contest. Lacing up his running shoes is referee Rich Mitchell, who may be moving fast and furious to keep up with these two action-heavy 145ers. They touch gloves before the mayhem begins, and the crowd goes wild at the sight of all-time great Georges St. Pierre in the crowd. Jourdain pays his countryman no mind as he has a job to do, and he starts off with a flurry of kicks. The Canadian goes high and low with kicks, and he trips Wood up. Wood throws haymakers back, surprising Jourdain briefly, and the two wind up in a clinch. Wood trips Jourdain out and plants him on the mat, where he climbs into the guard to take the striker out of his game briefly. Jourdain defends off his back with a guillotine choke, but the leverage is not there, so Wood does not register it. The Brit hangs on from above, and Jourdain considers grabbing the guillotine again until Wood threatens with his shoulder in the early stages of a Von Preux choke. Jourdain bucks and sits up, but Wood is persistent in keeping him pinned to the canvas. Mitchell tells them to work, so Jourdain answers by walking up the fence. Jourdain gets away with a fence grab while Wood is hanging on to him in the clinch, and he pushes the fighter off of him so that he can strike. Jourdain tags Wood with a few punches and a high kick, and he snaps the head back much to the delight of the French-speaking audience. Wood gathers himself and pitches out a front kick, and his foot skims off the cup and causes a brief pause in the action. Wood apologizes for it, and they get back to it after a few seconds. Wood times a front kick that comes at him with a huge right hand, and Jourdain is hurt badly but keeping a stiff upper lip. Jourdain’s balance nearly gives way beneath him, but with Wood not pushing the pace, Jourdain is able to get his wits about him again. This similar exchange occurs twice more, with Jourdain pushing out a front kick only to get clubbed with a right hand over the top. Jourdain toughs it out and gets kicked hard on his calf, forcing him to spin all the way around. Wood chips away at the lead leg again, and Jourdain greets him with three crisp uppercuts. Jourdain strings three punches together, but Wood unleashes one power right hand that stings Jourdain again. “Air” backs off, and he suddenly leaps in the air with a flying knee that Wood sees coming. Wood pushes it off and strings together a combination, and the two high-five when the bell sounds, putting a close to this exciting round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Wood
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Wood
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Wood

Round 2
The fists get bumped to start off the second frame, and Wood stalks his foe down early. Jourdain does not let Wood get the upper hand, crashing forward with a several-punch combination that is largely blocked, and a head kick that is also guarded. Wood works the body with a few punches and a front kick, and Jourdain comes out firing right back at him. A body kick from Jourdain allows Wood to trip his other leg out, and Wood jumps down to take top position. Jourdain kicks off before long, working his way back upright. Jourdain steps through a leg kick to score a few uppercuts and a knee up the middle, and Wood lets him have it with a huge left hook. Jourdain shrugs it off and the body shots that come to follow, and he answers with two ripping punches to the midsection. They trade punches in close boxing range, fighting in a phone booth when they close in. Jourdain strides in with several uppercuts, and Wood does the same before tripping Jourdain’s legs out and putting him down once more. Wood moves into the guard, and Jourdain tries to hip escape but gets held there. Mitchell is already imploring Wood to work after just a few seconds in top position, as Jourdain is fighting tooth and nail to get the right angle to explode back up. Mitchell warns the Brit again to improve his position, as Wood is just punching the body with short strikes, and they get stood up. Wood strings three punches together when standing again, and Jourdain takes a leg lock as he tries to reply. When they close in, four uppercuts come from Jourdain, and a furious exchange ensues with “Air” getting the better of it. They remain up close, and Jourdain blasts the body with a stern knee. Wood responds with a few straight punches, but Jourdain is the more active of the two as he keeps working the body and head with uppercuts. Wood stuns him with a left hand, and Jourdain takes it flush and throws back. Jourdain turns the tables and hits a trip on Wood, and they get back up quickly. Wood pays him back with his own trip, and Jourdain springs back up and nails Wood with an elbow. From a foot away, Jourdain manages to spin with a subsequent elbow, and England's Wood eats it like a platter of fish and chips. The round ends after this striking flurry.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Wood
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Wood
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Wood

Round 3
The fighters embrace after 10 minutes of action to open up the last round, and they pick up right where they left off. Both men strike with punches and body kicks one after the other, and when one scores a low kick, the other replies in kind. Jourdain pushes away a body kick and walks into a leg kick, but he manages to get off a few short strikes up the middle. Wood dips back when a bigger uppercut comes at his face, and he gets tripped out and put down. “The Prospect” manages to turn him around and drop Jourdain to his back, and he lowers himself into the guard to slow things down. Jourdain wants none of this, and he muscles himself up to the fence. Wood follows him so that he can rail him with two short but fierce elbows, and Jourdain pushes off and keeps a tight guard to come in and throw hands. Wood counters and then hits a trip to dump the Canadian to the mat, and Jourdain kicks him off without concern and stands up. Wood is right there every step of the way when Jourdain tries to engage in their close-range battle, and he beats Jourdain to the punch when they get up tight. Jourdain uses uppercuts effectively to the body and chin, and one of Wood’s counters knocks Jourdain back. Jourdain tries to stride in and spin with an elbow, but Wood keeps his guard up in time. Wood fishes for a trip and cannot land it, as Jourdain marks his body up with several knees. Jourdain fires off another spinning elbow up close, and it collides behind the ear of the Brit. Wood puts a kick to the body that changes Jourdain’s expression, and he scores several more body shots that slow the Canadian down. Wood’s workrate is higher, and Jourdain begins to start getting desperate and throwing winging punches. “Air” mixes in flying knees, and he sits down on two hooks that knock Wood back. With 15 seconds to spare, Jourdain empties the gas tank with a flying kick, and Wood shuts this down with a clinch, and he manages to put Jourdain down to the mat to ride out the exciting battle.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Wood (30-27 Wood)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Wood (30-27 Wood)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Wood (30-27 Wood)

The Official Result
Nathaniel Wood def. Charles Jourdain via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 27, 2022 (7 days before fight)
Charles Jourdain

Angelo picks Charles Jourdain because of his incredible pressure and cardio, noting that nothing can prepare you for that. He acknowledges Nathaniel Wood has the striking and grappling to win, but Jourdain's pace and volume are overwhelming. He has a moneyline bet on Jourdain and notes the line has not moved.

Moneyline bet placed; line has not moved
"how could i not pick charles jordan over the last year he seems to have settled in and gotten very comfortable with his style"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Charles Jourdain

Big Brady picks Charles Jourdain to win by knockout, likely in the third round. He notes that Jourdain has significant power advantage and has finished all but one of his wins, while Wood has been finished in four of five losses and is moving up from 135. He expects Jourdain's durability and third-round surge to be too much for Wood.

third round knockout
"i'll say it's in the third round but um i do think he does finish uh nathaniel would here so give me uh charles jordan to win charles jordan to win by knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Charles Jourdain

Cody picks Charles Jourdain, citing his high volume, cardio, and ability to wear opponents down in the third round. He notes that Jourdain has improved his grappling and that Nathaniel Wood, a former bantamweight, may struggle with the size and durability of Jourdain. Cody acknowledges Wood's speed and wrestling but believes Jourdain's pressure and finishing ability will be decisive.

"I think charles jordan gets his hand raised on saturday afternoon."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Charles Jourdain

Daniel Levi picks Charles Jourdain, impressed by his striking and volume, especially his performance against Shane Burgos. He notes that Wood is moving up in weight and may have durability issues, and that Jourdain gets better as the fight goes on while Wood slows down. He expects a competitive fight but leans Jourdain.

Jourdain by KO in round 2 or 3
"I got Charles Jordan but I expect it to be a serious fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

The host is confident in Wood, considering him the more disciplined and technical fighter. He believes Wood's grappling and BJJ will be key against Jourdain, who struggles when opponents apply wrestling pressure. He has already placed a 1.5 unit bet on Wood at +120 and expects a decision win, though a submission is possible.

submission victory possible
"Nathaniel Wood is my dog that I play for this card has already got one and a half units on him at plus 120."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Paul initially leans toward Nathaniel Wood as an underdog, citing Wood's speed and wrestling advantage. However, as the discussion progresses, he becomes less confident, noting that Wood's durability is questionable and that Jourdain's pressure and size could be too much. He ends up not committing firmly, saying he would prefer to take the grappler but acknowledges the risks.

"I will take the underdog shot anyways than nathaniel would and i'm gonna be looking good and feeling good until i maybe get knocked out at some point."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 29, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Charles Jourdain

The MMA Guru picks Charles Jourdain over Nathaniel Wood, despite Wood being a UK prospect. He believes Wood may be too small for featherweight and that Jourdain has significant power, as shown against Dooho Choi and Lando Vannata. He criticizes Wood for admiring his work and leaving openings, predicting Jourdain will catch him with a KO in the second round.

Jourdain wins by KO in round 2
"i'm going with charles jordan here over the fan you would i know nathaniel wood's a good uk prospect"
Daniel Pineda - Fight History
LOSS vs Darren Elkins
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira · Oct 19, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Darren Elkins 0 39 of 88 44% 102 of 170 3 of 12 25% 0 1 6:33
Daniel Pineda 0 31 of 53 58% 61 of 85 0 of 0 --- 2 1 3:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Darren Elkins 0 3 of 8 37% 23 of 35 1 of 2 50% 0 1 2:07
Daniel Pineda 0 13 of 15 86% 27 of 30 0 of 0 --- 2 1 2:07
2 Darren Elkins 0 19 of 47 40% 39 of 72 2 of 4 50% 0 0 2:24
Daniel Pineda 0 12 of 24 50% 17 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
3 Darren Elkins 0 17 of 33 51% 40 of 63 0 of 6 0% 0 0 2:02
Daniel Pineda 0 6 of 14 42% 17 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:50
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Darren Elkins 39 of 88 44% 30 of 78 9 of 10 0 of 0 28 of 70 3 of 7 8 of 11
Daniel Pineda 31 of 53 58% 21 of 38 7 of 10 3 of 5 17 of 37 1 of 1 13 of 15
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Darren Elkins 3 of 8 37% 3 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 6 0 of 1 1 of 1
Daniel Pineda 13 of 15 86% 12 of 13 1 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 12 of 13
2 Darren Elkins 19 of 47 40% 15 of 42 4 of 5 0 of 0 12 of 37 0 of 0 7 of 10
Daniel Pineda 12 of 24 50% 6 of 15 5 of 6 1 of 3 10 of 22 1 of 1 1 of 1
3 Darren Elkins 17 of 33 51% 12 of 28 5 of 5 0 of 0 14 of 27 3 of 6 0 of 0
Daniel Pineda 6 of 14 42% 3 of 10 1 of 2 2 of 2 6 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 13, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Darren Elkins

Angelo is surprised Darren Elkins is the underdog and has a bet on him at +102. He notes Elkins' incredible toughness, grinding style, and ability to fight a full 15 minutes without fading, while Pineda is a feast-or-famine fighter who fades quickly after an initial burst. He thinks Elkins can weather the early storm and take over as the fight goes on. He sees value in the underdog line and expects Elkins to win.

bet on Elkins at +102
"Darren Elkins is going to be the pick and I have a bet on him at plus 102"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Darren Elkins

Big Brady picks Darren Elkins by third-round knockout. He sees it as Pineda early, Elkins late. Pineda is dangerous early with power and grappling, but gasses badly. Elkins is extremely tough and will not let Pineda off the hook if he fades. He expects Elkins to take over, take Pineda down, and finish him in the third round.

third round knockout
"I'm going Darren Elkin One Last Ride uh to win this fight by third round knockout"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Oct 17, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Darren Elkins

Connor also picks Elkins hesitantly, noting that Pineda is violent but inconsistent, with a tendency to gas and lose focus. He compares the matchup to the 'Darren Elkins vs Michael Johnson award' for one-true-outcome fights. He acknowledges that Elkins could get knocked out early, but Pineda's self-destructive tendencies make Elkins the safer pick.

"I am inclined to pick a 40 year old Darren Elkins with the full knowledge that he may get knocked out immediately"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Feb 21, 2026 (fight day)

This fight was not discussed in the transcript.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Darren Elkins

Pineda has finished all 28 of his victories but will struggle with the relentless style of Elkins. As long as Elkins' durability holds up early, he should be able to break Pineda down and find a finish in the second or third round.

finish in round 2 or 3
"as long as Elkin durability holds up early he should be able to break pan down and find a finish in the second or third round"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 15, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Daniel Pineda

The Guru believes Darren Elkins has taken too much damage and no longer has it at age 40. He notes Pineda had good performances against Nathaniel Wood and Alex Caceres, and expects Pineda to destroy Elkins' lead leg with calf kicks and get a guillotine off a lazy takedown. He predicts a TKO or submission finish.

TKO or submission, calf kicks, guillotine
"I'm going to go with Daniel panada getting this one done by TKO or submission"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Oct 17, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Darren Elkins

Zane picks Elkins but with hesitation, acknowledging that Elkins is 40 and could get knocked out. However, he notes that Pineda is the type of fighter who beats himself—he gasses, loses focus, and makes bad decisions. Elkins historically beats those kinds of fighters by accepting the gift. Zane says he can't feel good about it but can't pick Pineda either.

Elkins opened +111, now +100; Pineda opened -123, now -112; Zane says there's no reason Pineda should be a favorite
"I'm taking Elkins can't feel good about it, but I also don't feel like I can really pick Panetta"
LOSS vs Nathaniel Wood
Decision (unanimous) (29–27, 29–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · Jul 27, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nathaniel Wood 1 66 of 93 70% 81 of 110 0 of 0 --- 1 1 3:42
Daniel Pineda 0 32 of 69 46% 80 of 125 1 of 6 16% 0 2 5:32
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nathaniel Wood 0 15 of 21 71% 24 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:09
Daniel Pineda 0 13 of 18 72% 30 of 37 0 of 2 0% 0 1 1:47
2 Nathaniel Wood 1 42 of 61 68% 47 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:22
Daniel Pineda 0 12 of 36 33% 24 of 49 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:04
3 Nathaniel Wood 0 9 of 11 81% 10 of 12 0 of 0 --- 1 1 0:11
Daniel Pineda 0 7 of 15 46% 26 of 39 1 of 1 100% 0 1 3:41
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nathaniel Wood 66 of 93 70% 35 of 56 12 of 14 19 of 23 55 of 79 0 of 0 11 of 14
Daniel Pineda 32 of 69 46% 21 of 53 3 of 5 8 of 11 19 of 53 2 of 2 11 of 14
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nathaniel Wood 15 of 21 71% 8 of 14 3 of 3 4 of 4 11 of 16 0 of 0 4 of 5
Daniel Pineda 13 of 18 72% 10 of 14 0 of 1 3 of 3 4 of 8 0 of 0 9 of 10
2 Nathaniel Wood 42 of 61 68% 22 of 37 8 of 9 12 of 15 35 of 52 0 of 0 7 of 9
Daniel Pineda 12 of 36 33% 5 of 26 2 of 3 5 of 7 11 of 35 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Nathaniel Wood 9 of 11 81% 5 of 5 1 of 2 3 of 4 9 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Daniel Pineda 7 of 15 46% 6 of 13 1 of 1 0 of 1 4 of 10 1 of 1 2 of 4
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Angelo picks Nathaniel Wood as the biggest favorite on the card, citing Wood's superior striking, grappling, and durability. He notes that Daniel Pineda is dangerous early but fades quickly, and Wood only needs to survive the first few minutes. Angelo believes Wood is better everywhere and is safe to parlay.

"Nathaniel is the pick and probably safe to Parlay"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Cody picks Nathaniel Wood, citing his technical striking, cardio, and improving wrestling. He notes that Daniel Pineda is a dangerous first-round fighter but fades quickly, and that Wood can survive the early onslaught and take over in later rounds. Cody believes Wood can win by decision or late finish, and suggests waiting for a better live price after the first round.

"I think Nathaniel would maybe either buy either it's going to be a decision or I do again see him maybe finishing off finishing off pan late in the third round could be by TKO could be by submission."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Daniel thinks Nathaniel Wood is better everywhere but has a questionable chin. He notes Daniel Pineda is a kill-or-be-killed fighter with all wins by finish, but 0-6 in decisions. He expects Wood to weather an early storm and win a decision if he survives.

"I think Nathaniel wood probably wins the decision here"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Paul agrees with Cody, expecting Wood to win. He notes that Pineda's best chance is early, and he might sprinkle on Pineda by submission in round one at long odds. However, he believes Wood's volume and cardio will be too much as the fight goes on.

Daniel Pineda by submission in round 1 (small sprinkle)
"I'll probably throw a small little sprink because I'm a I'm a sick degenerate Cody I'll probably have like a small little sprinkle on P round one at plus 1,000."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 22, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

The MMA Guru picks Nathaniel Wood, calling Daniel Pineda 'trash' and a former PED user. He believes Wood is levels above Pineda in skill, especially on the feet, and will win the low kick battle, which is key to Pineda's game. Wood's recent grappling win over Alex Caceres shows his well-roundedness. The Guru sympathizes with Wood's bad luck in past fights and expects him to win decisively.

"I'm going to go with Nathaniel wood I think Daniel Pan's trash former ped CH well always a ped CH but um got caught on Peds when he came to the UFC"
LOSS vs Alex Caceres
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Kara-France vs. Albazi · Jun 03, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alex Caceres 0 60 of 99 60% 86 of 128 1 of 2 50% 0 1 4:26
Daniel Pineda 0 27 of 56 48% 43 of 74 3 of 11 27% 1 1 3:57
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alex Caceres 0 15 of 30 50% 29 of 46 0 of 1 0% 0 0 3:02
Daniel Pineda 0 5 of 7 71% 11 of 13 1 of 6 16% 1 0 0:16
2 Alex Caceres 0 5 of 9 55% 7 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:43
Daniel Pineda 0 9 of 14 64% 19 of 26 2 of 3 66% 0 1 3:36
3 Alex Caceres 0 40 of 60 66% 50 of 70 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:41
Daniel Pineda 0 13 of 35 37% 13 of 35 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:05
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alex Caceres 60 of 99 60% 32 of 69 26 of 28 2 of 2 45 of 76 11 of 15 4 of 8
Daniel Pineda 27 of 56 48% 15 of 42 3 of 4 9 of 10 22 of 50 2 of 3 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alex Caceres 15 of 30 50% 9 of 24 5 of 5 1 of 1 6 of 15 5 of 7 4 of 8
Daniel Pineda 5 of 7 71% 1 of 3 0 of 0 4 of 4 5 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Alex Caceres 5 of 9 55% 2 of 6 3 of 3 0 of 0 3 of 5 2 of 4 0 of 0
Daniel Pineda 9 of 14 64% 8 of 12 1 of 1 0 of 1 4 of 8 2 of 3 3 of 3
3 Alex Caceres 40 of 60 66% 21 of 39 18 of 20 1 of 1 36 of 56 4 of 4 0 of 0
Daniel Pineda 13 of 35 37% 6 of 27 2 of 3 5 of 5 13 of 35 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Alex Caceres

Angelo picks Caceres, believing he can weather Pineda's early storm and then take over as Pineda fades. He notes Pineda is dangerous but only for about three minutes. Angelo is concerned about recency bias from Caceres' knockout win over Julian Erosa, but still thinks Caceres' durability and experience will carry him.

"I gotta go with Bruce Leroy here I the line is moving he's becoming a bigger favorite"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Alex Caceres

Cody picks Caceres, noting his resurgence and improved skills across the board. He mentions Caceres has a knack for taking the back and fishing for rear-naked chokes. Cody contrasts Pineda's early-finish style with Caceres's ability to go the distance. He also notes Caceres recently lost a grappling match to Pat Sabatini, which could be a concern. Overall, he feels Caceres should win over 15 minutes but isn't overly confident.

"I feel like casera should win over the course of 15."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Jun 1, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Daniel Pineda

Connor picks Pineda, citing that Caceres has historically struggled against intense, fast-starting power punchers. He notes that Pineda's aggression and power could overwhelm Caceres early, as seen in Caceres' losses to Francisco Rivera and Juan Wong. However, Connor is hesitant because Pineda is inconsistent and can be outmaneuvered by mobile strikers.

"I'm picking a repeat of the Cub Swanson fight, essentially."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 1, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Daniel Pineda

Daniel sees this as a dog-or-pass situation, noting that Pineda is a kill-or-be-killed fighter with 30 finishes in 30 wins. He believes the line has overcorrected after Caceres' win over Julian Erosa, and that Pineda's grappling and finishing ability make him a live underdog. However, he acknowledges Pineda's cardio issues and the risk of him getting finished himself.

"it's a dog or pass situation and ... I'll pick him as well"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Daniel Pineda

Jacob picks Pineda, citing his power and finishing ability. He thinks Pineda's leg kicks will slow Caceres' movement and set up takedowns or knockout shots. Jacob notes Caceres' recent knockout was against a broken Julian Erosa and he hasn't shown real power since 2010. He believes Pineda finds a finish.

"I think Daniel Pineda can can find a way to find the shot on Alex caceres and maybe he starts taking a desperate shot when he's hurt"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Alex Caceres

Caceres has cleaner technical striking and a sneaky submission game. Pineda is aggressive but leaves openings. Caceres will likely land a head kick or set up a submission in the second or third round. The fight not going to decision is a strong prop.

fight doesn't go to decision
"I'm going to go with the Bruce Leroy side here I think he finds uh probably a head kick submission or a head kick and then rear naked choke submission in the second or third round"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Alex Caceres

Paul picks Alex Caceres but is not confident at the -180 price. He notes Caceres has improved his wrestling and striking, and his grappling is his best asset. Paul points out Pineda is a front-runner who fades in later rounds, while Caceres can survive and be dangerous in the second and third. However, he acknowledges Pineda's physical strength and BJJ could pose problems if he gets takedowns early. Paul leans Caceres over 15 minutes but won't bet heavily.

Under 0.5 takedowns for Alex Caceres on PrizePicks
"I'm leaning towards Bruce Leroy but I will admit Daniel Pineda is very physically strong is it BJJ black belt as well and probably does have the wrestling Advantage"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 29, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Alex Caceres

The MMA Guru picks Alex Caceres, noting he is very hard to finish due to his elusiveness. He highlights Caceres' five-fight win streak with finishes, and a close fight with Sadiq Youssef. He believes Caceres will make it tricky for Pineda on the feet and that Pineda will slow down due to rough weight cuts. He thinks if it goes to decision, Caceres wins, though Pineda is a finisher.

"I'm going with Alex caceres over Daniel Pineda... is very hard to finish because he's so Elusive and tricky"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Alex Caceres

Zane picks Caceres because he believes Pineda's striking falls apart against fighters who use movement and angles. He notes that Pineda overthrows and is vulnerable to fluid strikers like Caceres. Zane expects Caceres to survive Pineda's early intensity and then take over, similar to how Andre Fili beat Pineda.

"I think that that is actually going to work pretty well for Caceres here."
WIN vs Tucker Lutz
Submission (guillotine choke) R2 2:50 · UFC on ESPN: Vera vs. Sandhagen · Mar 25, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Daniel Pineda 1 24 of 45 53% 41 of 66 1 of 2 50% 2 0 2:20
Tucker Lutz 0 28 of 78 35% 33 of 84 0 of 4 0% 0 0 1:27
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Daniel Pineda 1 17 of 32 53% 28 of 45 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:50
Tucker Lutz 0 24 of 65 36% 29 of 71 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:44
2 Daniel Pineda 0 7 of 13 53% 13 of 21 0 of 0 --- 2 0 1:30
Tucker Lutz 0 4 of 13 30% 4 of 13 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:43
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Daniel Pineda 24 of 45 53% 10 of 24 4 of 10 10 of 11 22 of 41 2 of 4 0 of 0
Tucker Lutz 28 of 78 35% 17 of 61 8 of 11 3 of 6 22 of 71 6 of 7 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Daniel Pineda 17 of 32 53% 4 of 14 4 of 9 9 of 9 16 of 30 1 of 2 0 of 0
Tucker Lutz 24 of 65 36% 15 of 50 7 of 10 2 of 5 18 of 58 6 of 7 0 of 0
2 Daniel Pineda 7 of 13 53% 6 of 10 0 of 1 1 of 2 6 of 11 1 of 2 0 of 0
Tucker Lutz 4 of 13 30% 2 of 11 1 of 1 1 of 1 4 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Tucker Lutz

Angelo picks Lutz, expecting him to weather Pineda's early storm and then take over with wrestling. He notes that Pineda is feast-or-famine with a 100% finish rate but fades quickly. He thinks Lutz is powerful and should get takedowns and a finish. He recommends betting 'fight doesn't go the distance' rather than a moneyline.

Fight doesn't go the distance (recommended parlay piece)
"Tucker Lutz should win this fight he should be able to get the wrestling going."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Tucker Lutz

Big Brady picks Tucker Lutz by third-round TKO, viewing it as a fade on Daniel Pineda. He notes Pineda's age (37), history of PED use, and tendency to gas out after the first round. Brady believes Lutz's grinding style and pace will wear down Pineda, who has never won a 15-minute fight. He expects Lutz to survive the early danger and finish Pineda late.

Lutz by TKO in round 3
"I'm going to say Lutz wins this fight I'll say like third round TKO just due to Pineda having nothing left in the tank"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Tucker Lutz

Cody picks Lutz confidently, calling Pineda a one-round fighter with poor cardio and a history of fading. He notes Pineda is 37, off a two-year layoff, and was previously caught for steroids. He believes Lutz's takedown defense and volume striking will neutralize Pineda's early grappling threat, and that Lutz will break Pineda down over three rounds.

Lutz wins by decision; live bet Lutz after first round
"We're going with Tucker Lutz this weekend I think that he gonna get the job done against Pineda"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Mar 23, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Tucker Lutz

Connor leans toward Tucker Lutz but expresses hesitation, noting that Lutz hasn't faced a fighter as violent and unpredictable as Daniel Pineda. He points out that Pineda has crushed young prospects before and that Lutz's recent UFC wins have been decisions against less dangerous opponents. Connor is curious to see how Lutz handles Pineda's calf kicks and chaotic pressure, and he wouldn't be super confident in Lutz passing this test just yet.

Same odds commentary as Zane.
"I wouldn't be super duper confident in him, in him passing it just yet."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lean picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Tucker Lutz

Jacob picks Lutz but is not confident, echoing that Lutz should win but the fight is not worth betting. He notes that Pineda is tough and wild, and that Lutz was out-grappled by Sabatini, but that is not a concern. He says the breakdowns are repetitive because many favorites on this card are similar.

"Tucker Lutz yes he should win he should be tough enough again as we mentioned the time before nothing jumps out on the film."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Mar 20, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Tucker Lutz

The host leans with the younger, faster, more explosive Tucker Lutz, expecting him to come back with vengeance after his first UFC loss. He thinks Lutz's combination striking, speed, and explosiveness will find Pineda's chin and put him away via ground and pound. He also likes the prop 'fight doesn't go to decision' as Pineda's fights almost always finish inside the distance.

fight doesn't go to decision
"I'm going to lean with a younger faster more explosive Tucker Lutz in this spot"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Tucker Lutz

The Guru picks Lutz, noting Pineda's gas tank issues and tendency to fade after the first round. He believes Lutz's durability and cardio will allow him to win the last two rounds via decision, despite a tough first round.

"I'm gonna go with Tucker Lutz... I can actually see him winning this one by 29-28 unanimous decision based on the last two rounds"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 23, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Tucker Lutz

Zane picks Tucker Lutz because he sees Lutz as a solid, reliable fighter who is difficult to finish and has a safe, counter-punching style that should outlast Daniel Pineda's wild aggression. He notes that Pineda is prone to self-destructing and fading as the fight goes on, while Lutz has the durability and technical boxing to stay out of harm's way and accumulate points. Zane also mentions that Lutz's style is similar to Cody Stamann's, which has proven effective against aggressive but less technical opponents.

Odds: Lutz opened at -225, currently -274; Pineda opened at +190, currently +216. Zane thinks the odds are too wide, saying 'I don't really think the odds should be too, too wide for this.'
"That is the reason really that I'm picking Lutz. I just solid, reliable."
LOSS vs Andre Fili
No Contest (accidental eye poke) R2 0:46 · UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Volkov · Jun 26, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Andre Fili 0 34 of 67 50% 44 of 78 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:45
Daniel Pineda 0 15 of 34 44% 43 of 62 0 of 7 0% 0 0 1:38
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Andre Fili 0 29 of 57 50% 39 of 68 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:45
Daniel Pineda 0 10 of 24 41% 38 of 52 0 of 6 0% 0 0 1:38
2 Andre Fili 0 5 of 10 50% 5 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Daniel Pineda 0 5 of 10 50% 5 of 10 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Andre Fili 34 of 67 50% 29 of 61 4 of 4 1 of 2 28 of 59 2 of 2 4 of 6
Daniel Pineda 15 of 34 44% 7 of 25 3 of 4 5 of 5 15 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Andre Fili 29 of 57 50% 26 of 53 2 of 2 1 of 2 23 of 49 2 of 2 4 of 6
Daniel Pineda 10 of 24 41% 4 of 17 2 of 3 4 of 4 10 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Andre Fili 5 of 10 50% 3 of 8 2 of 2 0 of 0 5 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Daniel Pineda 5 of 10 50% 3 of 8 1 of 1 1 of 1 5 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Andre Fili

Angelo picks Andre Fili, noting he is more technical and will avoid Pineda's haymakers, survive the first round, and pull out a win. He does not love the -225 odds or 8900 price tag but believes Fili wins. He has a bet on under 2.5 rounds because Pineda is feast or famine.

under 2.5 rounds
"i have andre feely winning this fight i don't love minus 225 odds i don't necessarily love the 8 900 draftking price tag because daniel pineda does hit hard and is willing to throw everything into those strikes"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Andre Fili

Big Brady picks Andre Fili to win by KO, noting Pineda's 100% finish rate but also his age (35) and recent poor performance against Cub Swanson. He thinks Pineda is very dangerous in the first round but will gas out, and Fili can weather the storm and finish him later. He compares it to the Rosa/Jaynes fight. He would not bet it due to Pineda's danger.

by KO, would not bet
"i'm gonna say philly wins by knockout here i'm gonna say philly knocks out daniel pineda"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Andre Fili

Cody picks Andre Fili but expects a sweat. He notes Pineda has never won a decision in 50 pro fights, meaning he must finish Fili. Fili is extremely durable, having been dropped but never finished cleanly. Cody thinks Fili's cardio and toughness will allow him to outlast Pineda, who tends to fade after the first round. He suggests live betting Pineda early and then Fili later.

"i think that this is going to be a sweat a sweat big time sweat for around a round and a half and then i think feely should pull away"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Andre Fili

Jacob picks Andre Fili, praising his toughness and competition level. He notes Fili has lost only to top fighters and has survived against tough opponents. Jacob believes Fili will dominate and is great value at 8900. He likes more/more on the monkey knife fight line.

"i just love andre's toughness in this fight i think uh you know pineda is very very talented but i think if push comes to shove when things get nasty if there's adversity to overcome andre feel is going to …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 24, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Andre Fili

Fili has one of the best jabs in the UFC and should use it to keep Pineda at distance. He needs to stay disciplined and on the outside to avoid Pineda's forward pressure. Fili's height and reach advantage will be key. If he lets Pineda inside or get taken down, it could be a rough night. Fili should outpoint Pineda on the feet and win a decision.

Fili by decision plus 230
"I think that feeling will present a fight here that's gonna you know keep it quite disciplined... I do think it comes via decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Andre Fili

Paul picks Fili but is not excited about the -225 price. He notes Fili's durability and solid grappling, and that Pineda comes out fast but fades. He thinks Fili can survive the early storm and take over. He considered Fili by decision but the +150 odds didn't excite him.

"i'm picking feely in this spot but minus 225 the the price doesn't feel great"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Andre Fili

The MMA Guru picks Andre Fili by late second-round TKO, citing his size, reach, and range advantage over Pineda. He believes Fili's defense will neutralize Pineda's leg kicks and that Pineda's cardio will fade due to a tough weight cut. He expects Fili to box Pineda up and finish him against the cage in the second round.

late second round TKO
"i'm gonna go with andre philly late second round tko"
LOSS vs Cub Swanson
KO (punches) R2 1:52 · UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno · Dec 12, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Cub Swanson 2 46 of 66 69% 51 of 71 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:34
Daniel Pineda 0 21 of 45 46% 40 of 65 1 of 2 50% 1 0 0:35
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Cub Swanson 1 31 of 47 65% 34 of 50 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:31
Daniel Pineda 0 16 of 30 53% 35 of 50 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:08
2 Cub Swanson 1 15 of 19 78% 17 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Daniel Pineda 0 5 of 15 33% 5 of 15 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:27
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Cub Swanson 46 of 66 69% 35 of 51 7 of 11 4 of 4 37 of 54 3 of 3 6 of 9
Daniel Pineda 21 of 45 46% 9 of 28 3 of 4 9 of 13 19 of 43 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Cub Swanson 31 of 47 65% 23 of 36 4 of 7 4 of 4 23 of 36 3 of 3 5 of 8
Daniel Pineda 16 of 30 53% 6 of 17 2 of 3 8 of 10 14 of 28 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Cub Swanson 15 of 19 78% 12 of 15 3 of 4 0 of 0 14 of 18 0 of 0 1 of 1
Daniel Pineda 5 of 15 33% 3 of 11 1 of 1 1 of 3 5 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 9, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Daniel Pineda

Big Brady picks Daniel Pineda to win by first-round submission. He highlights Pineda's 100% finish rate (27 wins all finishes) and Swanson's history of being submitted six times. He likes Pineda's recent form and believes he is in his prime, while Swanson is past his prime and coming off injury. He recommends betting Pineda inside the distance at +140.

Pineda inside the distance +140
"i'm going to take pineda to win by first round submission"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Dec 11, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Daniel Pineda

Daniel is impressed with Pineda's resurgence, noting his 29 finishes and recent dominant performances. He questions Cub Swanson's level of competition and thinks Swanson is on his way out. He predicts Pineda will catch Cub with a submission, possibly his 20th submission win.

submission win
"imma go with pineda to get his 20th submission win i think he catches cub somewhere along the way"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 7, 2020 (5 days before fight)
Daniel Pineda

Pineda's wrestling and top pressure will be a nightmare for Swanson, who has struggled with grapplers. Pineda should be able to take Swanson down repeatedly and finish him via ground and pound or submission. Swanson's recent losses have come via submission, and Pineda's style matches up well. The under 2.5 rounds is a good prop.

Under 2.5 rounds; Pineda inside the distance, likely second round
"i'm taking pineda via finnish probably second round... i truly think that he'll be able to get swanson down time and time again and get that damage in"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

The MMA Guru picks Cub Swanson, despite the long layoff due to injury. He believes Swanson's experience against good jiu-jitsu guys and his stand-up will be the difference. He expects Swanson to keep the fight standing and win a unanimous decision. He dismisses Daniel Pineda's wins as unimpressive and notes Pineda's past PED issues.

"i'm gonna go with cub swanson getting the job done against daniel pineda i like daniel pineda but i think people are just looking at his herbert burns win"
WIN vs Herbert Burns
TKO (elbows) R2 4:37 · UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3 · Aug 15, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Daniel Pineda 0 10 of 22 45% 35 of 48 3 of 4 75% 0 0 2:39
Herbert Burns 0 57 of 75 76% 173 of 205 1 of 2 50% 0 1 6:13
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Daniel Pineda 0 4 of 13 30% 21 of 31 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:12
Herbert Burns 0 24 of 40 60% 87 of 111 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:18
2 Daniel Pineda 0 6 of 9 66% 14 of 17 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:27
Herbert Burns 0 33 of 35 94% 86 of 94 0 of 1 0% 0 1 1:55
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Daniel Pineda 10 of 22 45% 6 of 15 2 of 5 2 of 2 5 of 15 1 of 2 4 of 5
Herbert Burns 57 of 75 76% 50 of 65 4 of 7 3 of 3 8 of 13 1 of 1 48 of 61
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Daniel Pineda 4 of 13 30% 1 of 7 2 of 5 1 of 1 2 of 10 1 of 2 1 of 1
Herbert Burns 24 of 40 60% 19 of 32 3 of 6 2 of 2 6 of 10 1 of 1 17 of 29
2 Daniel Pineda 6 of 9 66% 5 of 8 0 of 0 1 of 1 3 of 5 0 of 0 3 of 4
Herbert Burns 33 of 35 94% 31 of 33 1 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 3 0 of 0 31 of 32
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 12, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Herbert Burns

Big Brady is impressed with Herbert Burns' improvements and superior grappling. He expects Burns to submit Pineda in the first round, noting Pineda has been submitted five times. He thinks the fight won't go to decision.

first round submission, under on total rounds
"give me herbert burns first round submission"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Herbert Burns

Daniel Levi picks Herbert Burns to win by first-round submission. He notes that Pineda has never been to a decision (0-6 in decisions) and has been submitted six times. He believes Pineda's scrambling style is a bad matchup against Burns' elite jiu-jitsu. He also points out that Pineda's recent wins were overturned due to PEDs, and he may be deflated under USADA testing. He cites Burns' performance against Dunham as evidence of his submission prowess.

Burns by first-round submission; fight doesn't go the distance (-390); Pineda's PED history is a concern
"i'm going herbert burns here via first round submission again"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 13, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Daniel Pineda

Pineda is a live dog with strong wrestling and top pressure; he has not been submitted since 2010 and has the experience to survive Burns' early submission threats. Burns' recent finishes are against over-the-hill competition, while Pineda is still in his prime. The line is too wide; Pineda should be closer to +120. He will play it safe, rack up rounds, and win a decision.

Pineda wins by decision (+680)
"Pineda should not be a plus 240 or plus 250 underdog... I think he's a definitely a live dog here."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 9, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Herbert Burns

The MMA Guru picks Herbert Burns by submission in the first round, calling it the surest win on the card. He highlights Burns' knockout of Nate Landwehr with a knee up the middle as evidence of his finishing ability, and dismisses Pineda as a past-prime cheater.

submission in the first round
"i'm going with herbert burns i think he gets it done by submission in the first round"
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 171: Hendricks vs. Lawler · Mar 15, 2014
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Robert Whiteford 0 24 of 44 54% 40 of 60 1 of 5 20% 3 0 1:10
Daniel Pineda 0 26 of 50 52% 54 of 84 5 of 14 35% 0 0 7:43
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Robert Whiteford 0 8 of 18 44% 13 of 23 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:01
Daniel Pineda 0 15 of 29 51% 26 of 42 2 of 6 33% 0 0 2:02
2 Robert Whiteford 0 6 of 11 54% 11 of 16 1 of 2 50% 1 0 0:21
Daniel Pineda 0 9 of 17 52% 20 of 30 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:39
3 Robert Whiteford 0 10 of 15 66% 16 of 21 0 of 1 0% 2 0 0:48
Daniel Pineda 0 2 of 4 50% 8 of 12 2 of 5 40% 0 0 3:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Robert Whiteford 24 of 44 54% 7 of 25 8 of 10 9 of 9 14 of 31 1 of 3 9 of 10
Daniel Pineda 26 of 50 52% 14 of 34 9 of 12 3 of 4 17 of 34 6 of 11 3 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Robert Whiteford 8 of 18 44% 2 of 11 5 of 6 1 of 1 7 of 16 1 of 2 0 of 0
Daniel Pineda 15 of 29 51% 6 of 16 7 of 10 2 of 3 9 of 19 5 of 9 1 of 1
2 Robert Whiteford 6 of 11 54% 3 of 8 2 of 2 1 of 1 6 of 10 0 of 1 0 of 0
Daniel Pineda 9 of 17 52% 7 of 15 1 of 1 1 of 1 6 of 11 1 of 2 2 of 4
3 Robert Whiteford 10 of 15 66% 2 of 6 1 of 2 7 of 7 1 of 5 0 of 0 9 of 10
Daniel Pineda 2 of 4 50% 1 of 3 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Expert Picks (5)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Angelo picks Nathaniel Wood as the biggest favorite on the card, citing Wood's superior striking, grappling, and durability. He notes that Daniel Pineda is dangerous early but fades quickly, and Wood only needs to survive the first few minutes. Angelo believes Wood is better everywhere and is safe to parlay.

"Nathaniel is the pick and probably safe to Parlay"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Cody picks Nathaniel Wood, citing his technical striking, cardio, and improving wrestling. He notes that Daniel Pineda is a dangerous first-round fighter but fades quickly, and that Wood can survive the early onslaught and take over in later rounds. Cody believes Wood can win by decision or late finish, and suggests waiting for a better live price after the first round.

"I think Nathaniel would maybe either buy either it's going to be a decision or I do again see him maybe finishing off finishing off pan late in the third round could be by TKO could be by submission."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Daniel thinks Nathaniel Wood is better everywhere but has a questionable chin. He notes Daniel Pineda is a kill-or-be-killed fighter with all wins by finish, but 0-6 in decisions. He expects Wood to weather an early storm and win a decision if he survives.

"I think Nathaniel wood probably wins the decision here"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Paul agrees with Cody, expecting Wood to win. He notes that Pineda's best chance is early, and he might sprinkle on Pineda by submission in round one at long odds. However, he believes Wood's volume and cardio will be too much as the fight goes on.

Daniel Pineda by submission in round 1 (small sprinkle)
"I'll probably throw a small little sprink because I'm a I'm a sick degenerate Cody I'll probably have like a small little sprinkle on P round one at plus 1,000."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 22, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

The MMA Guru picks Nathaniel Wood, calling Daniel Pineda 'trash' and a former PED user. He believes Wood is levels above Pineda in skill, especially on the feet, and will win the low kick battle, which is key to Pineda's game. Wood's recent grappling win over Alex Caceres shows his well-roundedness. The Guru sympathizes with Wood's bad luck in past fights and expects him to win decisively.

"I'm going to go with Nathaniel wood I think Daniel Pan's trash former ped CH well always a ped CH but um got caught on Peds when he came to the UFC"