Career Averages - Thiago Moises
Career Averages - Alexander Hernandez
Thiago Moises
Alexander Hernandez
Thiago Moises - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thiago Moises | 0 | 45 of 101 | 44% | 46 of 103 | 2 of 15 | 13% | 0 | 0 | 2:33 |
| Gauge Young | 1 | 122 of 226 | 53% | 131 of 237 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 1:07 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Thiago Moises | 0 | 8 of 13 | 61% | 9 of 15 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:22 |
| Gauge Young | 0 | 9 of 23 | 39% | 13 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:17 | |
| 2 | Thiago Moises | 0 | 14 of 38 | 36% | 14 of 38 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
| Gauge Young | 0 | 44 of 88 | 50% | 44 of 88 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 | |
| 3 | Thiago Moises | 0 | 23 of 50 | 46% | 23 of 50 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Gauge Young | 1 | 69 of 115 | 60% | 74 of 120 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:42 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thiago Moises | 45 of 101 | 44% | 34 of 81 | 1 of 3 | 10 of 17 | 42 of 97 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 |
| Gauge Young | 122 of 226 | 53% | 62 of 157 | 27 of 34 | 33 of 35 | 114 of 211 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 13 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Thiago Moises | 8 of 13 | 61% | 4 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 6 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Gauge Young | 9 of 23 | 39% | 2 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 7 | 9 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Thiago Moises | 14 of 38 | 36% | 9 of 27 | 0 of 1 | 5 of 10 | 14 of 37 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Gauge Young | 44 of 88 | 50% | 19 of 60 | 12 of 14 | 13 of 14 | 43 of 87 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Thiago Moises | 23 of 50 | 46% | 21 of 45 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 4 | 22 of 49 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Gauge Young | 69 of 115 | 60% | 41 of 81 | 15 of 20 | 13 of 14 | 62 of 101 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 13 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Young (-130); Moises (+110)
Round 1
Once a hot commodity off of the sole Brazilian season of Dana White’s Contender Series, Moises (19-9, 8-7 UFC) has regressed to the mean and is one defeat away from falling to .500 in the promotion. Young (10-3, 1-1 UFC) has gone one up and one down thus far, so he is looking to break out of that pattern and into greater heights. They will battle it out under the auspices of referee Jason Herzog, who will be keeping tabs on the 155ers for as long as they keep fighting.
There is no touch of gloves. Moises pressure immediately forward, backing Young to the fence and shooting in on his hips within 10 seconds. Young places his back against the wall to keep himself afloat, and as Moises keeps clinging to his man, the crowd grows quite restless. Moises ignores the boos and irritation from the audience and keeps tight to him. Young flips Moises over him, and Moises recovers quickly enough so both men stand up. Young tosses out a high kick to keep Moises honest, and he ducks a looping punch but cannot evade a front kick aimed at his jaw. Young probes with a jab and low kick, and Moises catches him in transition with a left hook. They jab at the same time, and Young just misses a looping punch as Moises kicks the lead calf. Young stays behind his jab.
Moises loads up on power, and Young sees it coming and also knows a takedown is soon to test him. Young stops the first effort, but the Brazilian redoubles his attempt and succeeds in putting Young down. Young wall-walks to stand up, and he gives his back up in the process. Moises hops onto his back and wraps his legs around the waist while flirting with a choke attempt. Moises wraps his forearm across the face and tries to squeeze it, but the American is able to fight it off and kick off the fencing to drop to his knees. Moises welcomes this as he is leaned against the cage, and he smacks Young in the face with an undercut sneakily beneath Young’s armpit. Young sells out all the way to turn about, and Moises does not entirely give up the position and has Young trapped in an awkward side-turned position that contorts his spine but is not about to force him to tap. Young breaks out and finds himself in armbar danger, and he stacks the Brazilian up and lands a few punches to conclude the round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Moises
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Moises
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Moises
Round 2
There is a slight fist bump to kick off the round, and Young is quick to follow that bump with kicks from both limbs. Moises jabs to the body to open up a right hand, and Young does not fall for the latter. Young jabs the body with his heel, and he reaches out with a right hook. Moises chops at the front leg, and Young stumbles forward but is still more than willing to trade. The American digs a shot to the body and goes after an uppercut, and Moises is just out of range with the latter. Moises wraps a right hand around the ear and shoots for a single, with Young defending it and pushing off. Moises shoulder-rolls a heavy right hand but the jabs are continuing to score. Young jabs Moises up with a kick to the stomach and follows with a punch before he has to sprawl the incoming takedown. Moises bullies Young to the wire for a few seconds, and Young knows he cannot get ground out again and breaks out soon.
He proceeds to jab and cross Moises with short combinations, and he just misses with a step-in knee. Moises wants another takedown, but Young is not having it and shucks him away easily. Both men look to double up their jab and come over the top with a right hand, but neither is able to do so as the big rights are telegraphed. They pick at one another with low kicks and stay busy from up close, not overswinging anything and just selecting their places carefully. It is one after the other, Moises lands, Young fires back, Moises keeps on throwing and Young is ready for more. Moises shoots low for a takedown, and he gets pushed away and nearly booted in the face when standing up. The Brazilian manages to tackle Young over, and he comes up short with a hefty knee. Young puts his fists on Moises up high and to the chest, rolling with a right hand to press ever forward until the bell sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Young
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Young
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Young
Round 3
Young offers a high-five, and Moises accepts it before the final frame ensues. Young gets back right where he left off, slowly pressing the action and outboxing the slugging Moises. Moises is loading up on sheer power, while Young is content to touch and move. Young pitches Moises to the side when Moises changes levels, and he delivers a stern uppercut to the jaw and staggers the Brazilian with a follow-up right. He also marks Moises’ face up on multiple places, including both cheeks and the bridge of the nose. Young steps in with a sharp elbow, and he tosses Moises to the side as Moises predictably shoots in on his hips. Young kicks Moises’ lead leg out from him as Moises is shooting for a takedown, and Moises flops to his back while Young raises in arms in the air. Moises stands up thanks to Herzog, and he steps in with a thudding elbow on the nose. Moises failed takedown is an even worse look when he falls to his back again when he does not get it. Young forces him to stand.
Moises tries to brawl, but he is far too slow while Young picks him apart with fast combinations. Young clips Moises behind the ear, sending the Brazilian collapsing to the mat, and he follows him down to bash him with punches and hammerfists. When there is no finish in sight, Young dances around to showboat and gets Herzog to bring him back upright. Young beats Moises with a left hand and points at it, and he is feeling himself and motioning in a Diaz-like manner any thing he lands flush. Moises stands firm and drills him with a right hand, and Young shakes it out to re-engage. Moises meets him with sheer power, hurling his right hand like he wants to knock the head of “Gee Money” into the third row. Young tanks the ones that connect and backs Moises to the wall, stinging him with an elbow but getting caught flush with a power right hand. Moises is swinging with hammers, and Young picks him apart and has his hands up to defend from the most dangerous of attacks. Moises punctuates the brawl with two punches and a head kick, and the lightweights hug it out after a hard-fought contest.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Young (29-28 Young)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Young (29-28 Young)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Young (29-28 Young)
The Official Result
Gauge Young def. Thiago Moises via Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
Angelo picks Gauge Young despite acknowledging Thiago Moises is good everywhere. He likes Gauge's aggression, scrambling, and forward pressure, believing he will do more and impress judges. He worries about Gauge cutting easily and bleeding, which could affect judging.
Big Brady picks Thiago Moises as an underdog, citing his elite jiu-jitsu and wrestling. He notes Moises' inconsistency but believes he wins step-down fights. Brady points out Grant Dawson's vulnerability to takedowns and submissions, and predicts Moises will win by decision.
Cody picks Gauge Young, citing his youth, volume, and recent improvements. He notes that Thiago Moises is inconsistent and has taken a lot of damage. He also mentions that Moises' chin is a question mark after the Jared Gordon loss.
Daniel believes Moises is on a decline and has looked poor recently, while Young is improving and can push a pace that Moises struggles with. He thinks Young's hands and pressure will overwhelm Moises. He picks Young to get the biggest win of his career.
Young is a high-pressure striker with excellent cardio, while Moises has poor cardio and relies on grappling. Moises is passive on the feet and only shoots a few takedowns per fight. Young's takedown defense is good enough to scramble back up, and he will out-strike Moises significantly. This is a classic striker vs grappler where Young has a huge edge.
James picks Gauge Young to win, citing his durability, cardio, and pressure. He thinks Moises is on a downtrend and will struggle with Young's pace. Despite Moises being more skilled, James favors Young's will to win and stylistic advantages.
The host is hesitant but picks Moises by submission, thinking he will eventually find a position to put Young away. He notes that Moises is being overlooked due to his knockout loss to Jared Gordon, and that his BJJ and striking can be competitive. However, he needs a good number on the Moises submission prop to pull the trigger.
Paul also picks Gauge Young, agreeing with Cody. He highlights Young's volume and Moises' inconsistency. He mentions that Moises' durability is a concern and that Young is the fresher fighter.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Gordon | 1 | 7 of 13 | 53% | 21 of 36 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:36 |
| Thiago Moises | 0 | 5 of 9 | 55% | 11 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jared Gordon | 1 | 7 of 13 | 53% | 21 of 36 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:36 |
| Thiago Moises | 0 | 5 of 9 | 55% | 11 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Gordon | 7 of 13 | 53% | 5 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 5 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Thiago Moises | 5 of 9 | 55% | 3 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jared Gordon | 7 of 13 | 53% | 5 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 5 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Thiago Moises | 5 of 9 | 55% | 3 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Gordon (-110), Moises (-110)
Round 1
Lightweight veterans with technically equal records in the UFC—although one has a no contest—come to blows, with plans of remaining highly regarded in the talent-rich division. Gordon (20-7, 1 NC; 8-6, 1 NC UFC) is the one who also has the grey mark on his pace thanks to a clash of heads with Bobby Green, and has otherwise alternated wins and losses for a few years. The same can be said for Brazil’s Moises (19-8, 8-6 UFC), who is ready to continue the rivalry of his team of American Top Team against regional adversarial team Kill Cliff FC and its rep of Gordon. Referee Kerry Hatley will keep things on the up-and-up, but they are fine with one another and clap hands. The first strike thrown is a Moises body kick, which Gordon uses to easily sling his opponent to his back. Gordon practically walks into top control, and Moises wraps up his arms in an unorthodox armlock attack. Moises lets go of the lockup and lashes out with a short elbow off his back that opens a tiny cut on the top of Gordon’s forehead. Gordon responds with ample ground-and-pound of his own, smearing his blood all over the Brazilian’s head and chest. Moises works his way back up to his feet, ignoring the strikes lobbed at him so he can fight his way back up and away. They proceed to smack one another with low kicks, and Gordon darts in with a pair of punches that bounce off the guard. Leg kicks continue to fly, and they tag one another with single strikes. When Gordon ducks in to throw, Moises counters with a clean right hand over the top. “Flash” does not bat an eye, and instead lets Moises pitch a left hand at him.
This is exactly what he wants, as Gordon times a picture-perfect right hand that smashes into the American Top Team fighter’s chin and puts him down for the count. Moises’ head clatters off the mat when he collapses to the ground like a bird that’s had its wings clipped, and Gordon hammers the nail with a leaping right hand that gives commentator Michael Bisping flashbacks of when he took on Dan Henderson, cleanly separating Moises from his consciousness.
Before Hatley can get to them, Gordon gets one or two off that wake Moises back up, but they are merely academic as Gordon has dropped the hammer. Blood streaming down his face, Gordon stands up and shrugs, as if he knew he was going to do this all along. When Moises comes to, the two hug it out, but it is unclear if Moises knows the license plate number of the bus that just ran him over.
The Official Result
Jared Gordon def. Thiago Moises R1 3:37 via KO (Punches)
Angelo picks Thiago Moises after going back and forth. He acknowledges that Jared Gordon has been screwed on scorecards and could be on a win streak, but trusts Moises's training and activity. He notes that Moises is a slick grappler with technical striking and that Gordon is inactive and not on as good a team. Angelo says likely no bets for this fight.
Big Brady picks Jared Gordon, citing his volume and cardio. He notes Gordon's losses are to tough competition in close decisions, and he thinks Gordon's takedown defense and chin hold up. He expects a close competitive decision win for Gordon.
The host finds this a tough puzzle but leans with Gordon's pace and pressure. He notes Moises has looked good against certain opponents but doesn't do well against guys who set the pace, and Gordon is exactly that. He expects Gordon to grind out a high pace, possibly get a late finish, but mostly win on the scorecards, provided his durability holds up.
The Guru picks Jared Gordon, citing a rule of thumb that beating Thiago Moises means you're good. He thinks Gordon has been robbed in recent decisions (Bobby Green, Nazareno Malegarie) and is better than his record. He acknowledges grappling concerns from the Grant Dawson loss but believes Gordon's fundamental grappling defense is strong. He predicts Gordon wins by decision.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thiago Moises | 1 | 25 of 39 | 64% | 53 of 72 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 6:36 |
| Mitch Ramirez | 0 | 16 of 48 | 33% | 28 of 65 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:21 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Thiago Moises | 0 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 25 of 31 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 4:18 |
| Mitch Ramirez | 0 | 6 of 8 | 75% | 17 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Thiago Moises | 0 | 15 of 26 | 57% | 22 of 34 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:14 |
| Mitch Ramirez | 0 | 10 of 39 | 25% | 11 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:21 | |
| 3 | Thiago Moises | 1 | 6 of 7 | 85% | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Mitch Ramirez | 0 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thiago Moises | 25 of 39 | 64% | 10 of 23 | 3 of 4 | 12 of 12 | 17 of 30 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 7 |
| Mitch Ramirez | 16 of 48 | 33% | 4 of 32 | 5 of 7 | 7 of 9 | 13 of 45 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Thiago Moises | 4 of 6 | 66% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
| Mitch Ramirez | 6 of 8 | 75% | 0 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 5 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Thiago Moises | 15 of 26 | 57% | 8 of 18 | 2 of 3 | 5 of 5 | 13 of 24 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Mitch Ramirez | 10 of 39 | 25% | 4 of 30 | 4 of 5 | 2 of 4 | 7 of 36 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Thiago Moises | 6 of 7 | 85% | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 5 |
| Mitch Ramirez | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Moises (-410), Ramirez (+320)
Round 1
Originally expecting to face Brad Riddell in the co-main event slot, Moises (17-7, 6-5 UFC) instead tumbles down to the early prelims to take on late replacement and UFC debutant Ramirez (8-1, 0-0 UFC), who lost in an appearance on last year’s Contender Series. The two lightweights will be joined in the Octagon by referee Mark Smith, who clocks them in as the fighters consider but abandon a glove touch. The two start rapping the other’s calf with kicks one after the other, testing the waters and doing some work early. They proceed to take turns with these kicks until Moises decides to mix things up with a tackling double-leg takedown. Moises succeeds in placing Ramirez on his seat, and Ramirez turns to his side in hopes of finding a sweep. Moises shuts it down and shifts to half guard, where he slowly opens up with elbow strikes. Ramirez bucks and twists, but the heavy Brazilian is not going anywhere as he proceeds to smother and land shots. Ramirez uses all his might to pop up, but Moises drags him down from behind until Ramirez realizes he should not give up his back and turns over again. Moises leans down to potentially set up an arm-triangle choke, but with half guard on the other side, he is unable to find the right leverage. Ramirez scoots himself to the wall, but Moises drags him away from it so he can hope to pass. Moises lets it go so he can slash down with elbows, and he gets bucked off but this is the best thing for him. Ramirez turns to crawl away on his knees, and like a predatory animal, Moises pounces on his back. Moises almost immediately gets the hooks in and secures a body triangle, and as Ramirez turns over to his back, Moises is already fishing for a rear-naked choke. Ramirez hand-fights well enough to prevent the choke from getting close, and Moises slides arms back and forth in search of the sub. Moises softens his man up with a couple strikes, and Ramirez tries to swing back from behind his head. The round ends in this dominant position, with the horn blaring twice.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Moises
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Moises
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Moises
Round 2
The lightweights come together in the middle of the cage, and Ramirez pushes the pace by leading off with a whipping overhand right. As Ramirez tries to shove the Brazilian against the wall, Moises turns him about. The two jockey for position while tied up, and Moises tangles up the legs for a trip attempt but does not find it. Moises drives a knee to the chest as he looks for another entry, with a double that fails. This allows Ramirez to break free, and Moises chops down on his lead leg as he gets backed off with punches. Moises reaches out with a front kick, and leans back as a head kick whizzes past his face. Ramirez swings as hard as he can with a right hand, and the veteran shoots in for a double and drives Ramirez back to the wall. The two do a little slow dance when up close in the clinch, and Moises breaks free with an elbow and misses with a front kick by a matter of inches. Ramirez punches his way forward into a clinch, and he is turned around and smacked in the face a few times. Moises lets go to reset, and he kicks the calf of his opponent that is welted and swollen badly. Ramirez kicks back, but Moises aims at the same target again to make Ramirez recoil. As he does this, he fires off a front kick and stings Ramirez with an overhand right. Moises chops low and spins with a wheel kick that buzzes the side of the head, and he calmly works his way forward, landing shots to chop away. Ramirez goes after two leg kicks of his own, and the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Moises
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Moises
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Moises
Round 3
Moises begins the round with a front kick, and
he knocks Ramirez off his feet with a vicious low kick. Ramirez hits the deck, and a ferocious Moises chases after him and whips four low kicks down reminiscent of Donald Cerrone against Myles Jury.
Ramirez grimaces in pain and Smith recognizes that he is done, and he waves off the fight. This is a statement performance for the Brazilian, who registers his first knockout as a UFC fighter by putting the newcomer away with leg kicks.
The Official Result
Thiago Moises def. Mitch Ramirez R3 0:15 via TKO (Leg Kicks)
Angelo expects Moises to be a big favorite. He is a slick grappler who stays composed and works for submissions, with technical striking and solid low kicks to set up takedowns. Although Moises was taken down five times and mauled by Benoit Saint-Denis, Angelo notes that Ramirez is not on that level. He thinks Moises will win the striking exchanges and is good enough to defend takedowns or sweep off bottom. He will bet if the line is favorable.
Big Brady picks Thiago Moises to win by second-round submission. He views this as a levels fight, with Moises' BJJ and experience being far superior to Ramirez, who is coming in on short notice. He expects Moises to get a takedown and submit Ramirez.
Cody picks Thiago Moises, noting his experience against top competition and superior skills everywhere. He acknowledges Ramirez's danger as a short-notice debutant but believes Moises is better on the feet and on the ground. He warns about Moises' durability but expects him to win.
The host notes that Ramirez is stepping in on short notice and is less skilled and experienced than Moises. He expects Moises to have the technical striking advantage and eventually open up a club-and-sub opportunity to choke out Ramirez, getting back in the win column.
Paul agrees, stating Moises is better everywhere and has seen every trick Ramirez might have. He notes Ramirez's Contender Series loss and lack of high-level experience. He will not bet Ramirez.
Alexander Hernandez - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafa García | 0 | 59 of 169 | 34% | 79 of 194 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 0 | 0 | 1:50 |
| Alexander Hernandez | 0 | 50 of 145 | 34% | 54 of 149 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rafa García | 0 | 10 of 40 | 25% | 15 of 45 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:28 |
| Alexander Hernandez | 0 | 8 of 27 | 29% | 8 of 27 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Rafa García | 0 | 20 of 66 | 30% | 20 of 66 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Alexander Hernandez | 0 | 18 of 38 | 47% | 18 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Rafa García | 0 | 29 of 63 | 46% | 44 of 83 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:12 |
| Alexander Hernandez | 0 | 24 of 80 | 30% | 28 of 84 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafa García | 59 of 169 | 34% | 52 of 161 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 6 | 57 of 165 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 1 |
| Alexander Hernandez | 50 of 145 | 34% | 40 of 126 | 9 of 14 | 1 of 5 | 50 of 145 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rafa García | 10 of 40 | 25% | 6 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 | 10 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
| Alexander Hernandez | 8 of 27 | 29% | 5 of 20 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 3 | 8 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Rafa García | 20 of 66 | 30% | 19 of 65 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 19 of 65 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Alexander Hernandez | 18 of 38 | 47% | 14 of 32 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 18 of 38 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Rafa García | 29 of 63 | 46% | 27 of 60 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 28 of 61 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Alexander Hernandez | 24 of 80 | 30% | 21 of 74 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 24 of 80 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Hernandez (-145); Garcia (+120)
Round 1
Going forward, the last six athletes tonight hoist UFC records above .500. Even with a defeat, any one of the losing parties will not fall to that threshold either. Garcia (18-4, 6-4 UFC) has seen some serious success as of late, winning four of five including a knockout of Jared Gordon in his last time out. Hernandez (18-8, 10-7 UFC) finally gets to fight again after a UFC 324 match against Michael Johnson was nixed due to extreme betting irregularities. Referee Kerry Hatley will stand vigilant while the lightweights engage in sanctioned fisticuffs, with the two athletes not bothering to bump fists first.
They engage in some early jabbery and pokery, with Garcia looking to follow his ones with right hands. He scores one to drive Hernandez back a few steps, reddening the Texan’s nose immediately. Garcia nails the front leg with a kick so hard that Hernandez has to recoil it behind his other leg, and he circles on the outer edge looking for a way in. Garcia plans a kick on the front leg again while Hernandez is about to engage, shutting that attack down. Hernandez steps in with a knee to the body, getting it off just before Garcia can hit him with his overhand right. Garcia bounces and works his way forward, staying away from Hernandez’ kicks as he jabs straight ahead. Garcia wings a short left hook that brushes the chin, putting “The Great Ape” on notice.
Hernandez shadowboxes on the outside edge, unable to get close, while Garcia can seemingly close the distance at will. Garcia plans a kick on the inside calf, and Hernandez gives him back a loud body kick to think about. Garcia plods forward using a tight, high guard, keeping Hernandez to largely single strikes. Garcia stings his opponent and sees an opening to drop down to his knees to get hold a double, and he tosses Hernandez down for a second. Hernandez climbs back up, and Garcia elevates him with a high-crotch lift and slams him down with gravitas. Hernandez appears no worse for wear as both men gets back to their feet without issue, but it is Garcia who continues to press the action. Hernandez comes up short on his winging punches, but a left hand brushes open a cut on Garcia’s left eye. Hernandez is shoved to his knees, and he eats a few shots before the round concludes.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Round 2
Picking up right where he left off, Garcia is the pressure fighter. He works his way in to drive a left hand down the middle, drawing a thin trickle of blood from his foe’s left nostril. Hernandez keeps his wits about him as Garcia plods towards him, but the volume from Garcia has diminished to a degree. Garcia walks his man down to put three fists on the face, and he chases but does not cut off “The Great Ape” as he stays right in front of him. Hernandez has to desperately scramble from side to side to get away, and the accuracy of Garcia is something to behold as Hernandez appears shocked when he gets caught repeatedly.
Hernandez tries to back Garcia off with a head kick, but Garcia blocks it and flashes a devilish grin. Garcia counters a front kick with a right hand down the pipe, snapping the head back and forcing Hernandez to circle rapidly to his right away from the power. The fists of Garcia have quickly transformed Hernandez’ visage into a bloody mess, while Garcia’s light wound on his eyebrow opens up again during a fierce but brief exchange. Garcia wades forward, stops, winds up and throws, and he tags Hernandez flush. He changes levels to break things up, and Hernandez keeps to his feet and backs off. Garcia jabs him up and starts talking to him as the round ends, with both men getting into the other’s face. Hatley has to separate them and usher them back to their respective corners.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Round 3
Garcia does not stay seated in his corner long enough to get his eye cut sealed, as he is amped up and ready to throw hands. He does exactly that when the third round kicks off, stepping right into the pocket to throw hammers. Hernandez has to inevitably retreat due to the pressure, so Garcia does not let him off the hook. Garcia throws everything and the kitchen sink, and Hernandez’ chin is granite but as it starts to fade, he starts to engage less and circle more. With Hernandez backpedaling, Garcia rushes after him and pursues a takedown.
Hernandez stands him up with his back to the fence, keeping his balance as blood leaks from his nose. Garcia elevates and dumps Hernandez down, and when Hernandez stands, Garcia belts him with a sharp combination. Hernandez throws back no matter the position, but Garcia is unafraid of the return offerings. Hernandez starts to pick things up, almost certainly down on the scorecards, and he manages to back Garcia up after landing cleanly a few times. The fighters duke it out one after the other, with big damage developing around Hernandez’ left eye. No one cares about damage or blood or anything, engaging in an absolutely rip-roaring slugfest for the remainder of the round. Damage was inflicted aplenty in their 15-minute engagement, and the fighters squash any inkling of a beef right after the final horn blares.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Garcia (30-27 Garcia)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez (29-28 Garcia)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez (29-28 Garcia)
The Official Result
Rafa Garcia def. Alexander Hernandez via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
Angelo picks Alexander Hernandez as the better fighter, citing his explosiveness, speed, cardio, and power. He notes that Hernandez is on a four-fight win streak with back-to-back knockouts. He acknowledges that Rafa García is the better straight wrestler, but believes Hernandez scrambles well and has good cardio. He expresses concern that Hernandez needs to pull the trigger and not be outworked.
Big Brady picks Rafa García over Alexander Hernandez. He sees advantages for García in boxing volume, wrestling, durability, and cardio. He expects a close fight but believes García's pace and cardio will be key, predicting a split decision win.
The host thinks Garcia is the better fighter but had a poor last performance. He expects a stand-up fight where Garcia can pressure Hernandez and test his gas tank. He notes Hernandez slows down and Garcia is durable, having been finished only once. He will bet Garcia +3.5 because Garcia is very likely to win the third round, and the fight likely goes to decision.
James picks Alexander Hernandez, citing his athleticism and power advantage. He expects Hernandez to win the first two rounds and possibly fade in the third, but still outwork Garcia. He notes Garcia's toughness but believes Hernandez's level is higher.
Garcia is on a two-fight winning streak with good durability and volume striking. Hernandez has a four-fight winning streak but relies on power and wrestling, and he has a questionable gas tank. Garcia should be able to stuff takedowns, outwork Hernandez on the feet, and pull away in the later rounds to win a decision.
Angelo picks Alexander Hernandez, citing his speed, power, and recent resurgence with back-to-back knockouts. He acknowledges Michael Johnson's impressive resume and takedown defense but worries about Johnson's age and chin. He notes Hernandez's tendency to swell and bleed easily as a concern, especially in Vegas where damage matters.
Big Brady believes Hernandez is finally putting it together, on a four-fight win streak, and filling out at lightweight. He thinks Michael Johnson is too old at 39 and benefited from recency bias after an upset win over Zellhuber. Brady expects Hernandez to win by decision, as Johnson won't push a pace that gasses Hernandez.
Cody also picks Hernandez but is hesitant due to Hernandez's mental fragility. He notes Hernandez's confidence-based fighting style and recent wins, but worries about his tendency to underperform. Cody believes Hernandez's power and wrestling give him the edge, but he is not fully confident.
Connor is torn but leans Hernandez, believing Johnson's win streak is smoke and mirrors. He notes that Hernandez has better wins and is younger, but acknowledges Johnson's speed and durability. Connor thinks Hernandez needs to pressure and wrestle to win, and that Johnson's takedown defense can be frustrated. He ultimately picks Hernandez but with low confidence.
Daniel Vreeland picks Alexander Hernandez based on momentum and age advantage. He notes that Hernandez is on a four-fight win streak, while Johnson is 39 and speed is the first thing to go. However, Vreeland is not fully confident because Hernandez's wins are against lower-level competition and Johnson can beat anyone on a given night.
James picks Hernandez after tape study, citing his wrestling upside, better footwork, and durability. He notes Johnson is older and that Hernandez is on a better trajectory. However, he is not fully confident and will analyze further for betting.
The host picks Hernandez by knockout but with low confidence, acknowledging that Johnson could outstrike him over three rounds. He notes Hernandez's power is the difference-maker, but he relies on landing a big shot. He says Johnson is live as an underdog and won't fault anyone taking the plus money.
Paul leans toward Alexander Hernandez, citing his youth and recent winning streak. He notes Hernandez's power and wrestling threat, but is wary of his inconsistency. Paul believes Hernandez can catch Johnson, who is older and has been knocked out before. He also likes the under 2.5 rounds prop.
The MMA Guru picks Michael Johnson, calling it a 'fraud check' for Alexander Hernandez. He believes Johnson's hand speed will be too much, and that Hernandez will fail to adjust, leading to a KO. He predicts a round two KO.
Zane picks Johnson, arguing that Johnson has never lost confidence or changed his style, and is still fast and durable. He notes that Hernandez has gone through crises and may not pressure effectively. Zane believes Johnson's speed and shot selection will give Hernandez problems, and that Hernandez's recent wins are less impressive. However, he acknowledges Hernandez could wrestle and win.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Hernandez | 1 | 30 of 75 | 40% | 30 of 75 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
| Carlos Diego Ferreira | 0 | 23 of 98 | 23% | 23 of 98 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexander Hernandez | 0 | 12 of 36 | 33% | 12 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Carlos Diego Ferreira | 0 | 11 of 53 | 20% | 11 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Alexander Hernandez | 1 | 18 of 39 | 46% | 18 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
| Carlos Diego Ferreira | 0 | 12 of 45 | 26% | 12 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Hernandez | 30 of 75 | 40% | 22 of 63 | 4 of 6 | 4 of 6 | 20 of 61 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 14 |
| Carlos Diego Ferreira | 23 of 98 | 23% | 8 of 56 | 11 of 35 | 4 of 7 | 23 of 96 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexander Hernandez | 12 of 36 | 33% | 7 of 28 | 2 of 4 | 3 of 4 | 12 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlos Diego Ferreira | 11 of 53 | 20% | 3 of 29 | 6 of 19 | 2 of 5 | 11 of 51 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Alexander Hernandez | 18 of 39 | 46% | 15 of 35 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 8 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 14 |
| Carlos Diego Ferreira | 12 of 45 | 26% | 5 of 27 | 5 of 16 | 2 of 2 | 12 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Hernandez (-140); Ferreira (+115)
Round 1
Jeff Rexroad is the referee. Ferreira takes the center of the cage in the early going. Hernandez is attacking with leg kicks. A solid jab lands for Hernandez. Ferreira catches a kick to the body and attempts to counter. Ferreira launches a big right hand and Hernandez circles away. A right hand makes Ferreira stumble briefly. Hernandez jabs and Ferreira lands a body kick. Another jab for Hernandez. Ferreira lands a body kick. Lots of movement for Hernandez which is making it difficult for Ferreria to find his range. A front kick to the body lands for Ferreira. They trade and Ferreira ends the exchange with a knee. A straight lands for Hernandez. Ferreira continues to walk Hernandez down. Ferreira lands a front kick to the body. A close opening round.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ferreira
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Ferreira
Mike Pendleton scores the round: 10-9 Ferreira
Round 2
Hernandez kicks the body. Ferreira catches and attempts to counter. He gets poked in the eye in the process and time is called. Ferreira doesn’t need much time to recover. A counter left lands clean for Ferreira in an exchnage. Ferreira lands a body kick as Hernandez moves forward. Ferreira just misses on a head kick. A solid right gets through for Hernandez. Ferreira blocks a hard body kick. Hernandez continues his movement based approach, but he’s not landing much. Another straight shot lands for Hernandez. A left hook and a body kick connect for Ferreira. Ferreirra presses forward and
Hernandez drops him with a perfectly-timed counter right hand to the temple. Smelling blood, Hernandez pounces and unleashes a hailstorm of violent ground-and-pound. Rexroad gives Ferreira plenty of leeway — perhaps too much — but after about eight unanswered punches, the fight is mercifully called.
That’s a resounding victory for the San Antonio native, who has won four consecutive Octagon appearances. Ferreira ends the fight with a nasty hematoma on the side of his head.
The Official Result
Alexander Hernandez def. Diego Ferreira via TKO (Punches) R2 3:46
Angelo picks Alexander Hernandez, noting he is hitting his stride lately, explosive, well-rounded, and a good athlete. He says this feels like a great fight for Hernandez, fighting an older guy at home (San Antonio). His only concern is that Hernandez cuts easily, which could affect judging. He says if the odds are reasonable, he will bet on him.
Big Brady leans toward Ferreira because Hernandez fades late in fights. He notes Hernandez is explosive early but has poor cardio and was put together on short notice. Ferreira is durable and has finished fights late. He predicts Ferreira wins by third-round knockout after weathering an early storm.
Connor picks Ferreira, emphasizing that Hernandez's inability to handle pressure will be exploited. He notes that Ferreira is a dangerous grappler and powerful striker, and Hernandez's wrestling won't be an easy out. Connor acknowledges Ferreira's age but says if not for age, he would pick Ferreira without question.
Hernandez is making a quick turnaround, but the host believes he is up against it. He expects Ferreira to stave off Hernandez's early power and explosivity, then wear him down with pace, pressure, and grappling, winning on the scorecards.
The MMA Guru picks Carlos Diego Ferreira as an underdog, believing he will 'fraud check' Alexander Hernandez. He highlights Ferreira's win over Michael Johnson and competitive fights with Gamrot and Rebecki. He argues Hernandez struggles against veteran fighters and that Ferreira is a step above Hernandez's previous opponents. He predicts a second or third round TKO.
Zane picks Ferreira, citing his experience, aggressive inclination, and power. He notes that Hernandez is allergic to pressure and struggles when backed up, while Ferreira will pressure him. Zane acknowledges Ferreira's age (40) but believes his style and dangerous grappling will neutralize Hernandez's wrestling and force him into uncomfortable exchanges.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Hooper | 0 | 20 of 82 | 24% | 20 of 82 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Alexander Hernandez | 1 | 17 of 38 | 44% | 18 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chase Hooper | 0 | 20 of 82 | 24% | 20 of 82 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Alexander Hernandez | 1 | 17 of 38 | 44% | 18 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Hooper | 20 of 82 | 24% | 7 of 62 | 7 of 12 | 6 of 8 | 20 of 81 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Alexander Hernandez | 17 of 38 | 44% | 14 of 35 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chase Hooper | 20 of 82 | 24% | 7 of 62 | 7 of 12 | 6 of 8 | 20 of 81 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Alexander Hernandez | 17 of 38 | 44% | 14 of 35 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Hooper (-345), Hernandez (+275)
Round 1
Getting away from the prelims to the four-bout chunk on the ESPN network, we start with a lightweight clash that pits a young-up-and-comer against someone who used to hold that status before aging out of it. Hooper (16-3-1, 8-3 UFC) is full of things and vinegar at the age of 25 on a five-fight win streak—one shy of a career long. His opponent Hernandez (16-8, 8-7 UFC) has won lately to edge himself above the .500 UFC record line, although a defeat tonight would even him out again. The two men have referee Jason Herzog to thank for how the officiating will play out in the next 15 minutes or fewer, and they opt to bump fists.
Hooper starts off with long front kicks from either limb to the body. The kicks set up one up high, and he chains a spinning back fist into it. Hernandez steps in to kick the body, and Hooper nearly reaches him on the way out with his far longer limbs. Hernandez tries to close the distance again, and Hooper uses his front kick to frustrate his foe. Hernandez manages to get in to score a pair of punches, only to have to back off and wait for Hooper to throw a naked kick to counter with an overhand left. Hernandez sticks out a straight right hand, and Hooper whizzes past him with a combination.
Hernandez sits down on two counterpunches when Hooper kicks at the ribs, and he hurls a big left hand as Hooper shoots in for a single-leg entry. Hernandez breaks out of it and circles away, blocking a chasing strike or two including a spinning back fist. Hooper plants two punches on the jaw, and Hernandez reaches him at the end of a left. Hooper’s front kick is mixed in, and he shoots in low for a takedown and lands on his own face. Hernandez scoots away and lets Hooper back up, and he measures the longer fighter with looping punches out of range. Hernandez connects on a few punches and evades a long right hand, while parrying two subsequent strikes. “The Great Ape” hits with a left, and Hooper partially rolls with it and replies with doubled left hooks.
Hernandez keeps moving from side to side, and he lances a fierce right hand down the middle to separate Hooper from his senses. Hooper collapses to his knees and tries for a desperate takedown to save himself, and Hernandez pounds on him from both sides of the head with seconds to go in the round. As Hooper takes damage, Herzog waves the fight off
, as he does not feel that Hooper should have a few more seconds to ride out the round and recover. Hooper is crestfallen but nods in understanding when informed exactly what happened, while the victorious Hernandez raises his arms and parades around the cage to celebrate.
The Official Result
Alexander Hernandez def. Chase Hooper R1 4:58 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo notes Hooper has filled out physically, improved his takedowns, and is undefeated at 155. He thinks Hernandez is inconsistent and undersized, and that Hooper's height and BJJ advantage could be key. However, he acknowledges Hernandez's takedown defense and toughness, making this a close fight. He slightly leans Hooper but is not confident.
Big Brady picks Chase Hooper to win by second-round TKO. He notes Hernandez struggles with high pace and has been broken in many fights. Hooper is massive, pushes a pace, and will drain Hernandez's gas tank. He thinks Hooper will chain takedowns and submission attempts, finishing Hernandez in the second or third round. He acknowledges Hernandez could hurt Hooper early, but if Hooper gets rolling, it's a bad matchup for Hernandez.
The host notes Hooper's recent improvements and chaotic striking approach. He expects Hooper to wear down Hernandez and eventually find a submission, likely in the second or third round.
The Guru leans towards Alexander Hernandez, though he expresses some hesitation. He believes Hernandez's explosiveness and body shots will be effective against Chase Hooper. The Guru notes that Hooper's grappling is improved but he lacks damaging ground and pound and often wins by submission threat rather than actual submissions. He worries about Hernandez's close fight with Austin Hubbard but thinks Hernandez will have more moments in the scrambles and on the feet.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Hernandez | 0 | 59 of 149 | 39% | 87 of 186 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 0 | 0 | 6:39 |
| Kurt Holobaugh | 0 | 71 of 171 | 41% | 106 of 215 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:32 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexander Hernandez | 0 | 22 of 68 | 32% | 24 of 70 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
| Kurt Holobaugh | 0 | 26 of 75 | 34% | 26 of 75 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:14 | |
| 2 | Alexander Hernandez | 0 | 30 of 62 | 48% | 37 of 75 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:01 |
| Kurt Holobaugh | 0 | 38 of 78 | 48% | 48 of 91 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:18 | |
| 3 | Alexander Hernandez | 0 | 7 of 19 | 36% | 26 of 41 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 4:29 |
| Kurt Holobaugh | 0 | 7 of 18 | 38% | 32 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Hernandez | 59 of 149 | 39% | 36 of 117 | 10 of 15 | 13 of 17 | 45 of 129 | 2 of 3 | 12 of 17 |
| Kurt Holobaugh | 71 of 171 | 41% | 39 of 122 | 21 of 35 | 11 of 14 | 63 of 160 | 8 of 11 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexander Hernandez | 22 of 68 | 32% | 12 of 51 | 3 of 8 | 7 of 9 | 22 of 68 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Kurt Holobaugh | 26 of 75 | 34% | 11 of 49 | 8 of 16 | 7 of 10 | 26 of 75 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Alexander Hernandez | 30 of 62 | 48% | 17 of 47 | 7 of 7 | 6 of 8 | 21 of 51 | 2 of 3 | 7 of 8 |
| Kurt Holobaugh | 38 of 78 | 48% | 23 of 58 | 11 of 16 | 4 of 4 | 31 of 68 | 7 of 10 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Alexander Hernandez | 7 of 19 | 36% | 7 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 9 |
| Kurt Holobaugh | 7 of 18 | 38% | 5 of 15 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Hernandez (-192), Holobaugh (+160)
Round 1
Must-win fights are the name of the game at this UFC Vegas 104 card, as formerly highly touted prospect Hernandez (15-8, 7-7 UFC) has fallen on hard times as of late, winner of just two of his last six. Meanwhile, Holobaugh (21-8, 1 NC; 2-5 UFC) is on his third run in the Octagon, and this stint is more successful than others in the past as he has won a few times. Referee Kerry Hatley will take charge of the lightweights in this next match, and they start things off by bumping fists. Both men let their legs fly, smacking one another with heavy low kicks to start off. Holobaugh jabs to the body and follows with a high kick that bangs into Hernandez’ chest, and the Texan parries another advance from Holobaugh. Hernandez stands his man up with a left hand, and he slides away from any counter. Kicks on the inside and outside of Holobaugh’s leg land, and he surges into action, swarming forward with punches that catch Hernandez on the chin. They bang heads briefly, and before Hatley can say something, Hernandez stops and asks if Holobaugh is alright. They get right back to it, chasing one another around with powerful punch combinations. Holobaugh sneaks in a body kick, and Hernandez responds in kind. This happens again, just with Hernandez striking first. The lightweights take turns engaging, and they continue mirroring one another with their exchanges. One lands, the other gives him something back to think about, and the series carries on. Hernandez comes out swinging with big fists, and Holobaugh slips them and tries to do the same. When Hernandez has his gloves bang into Holobaugh’s, Holobaugh retaliates with a clubbing right hand behind the ear and floors Hernandez with another right hand. Hernandez springs right back up and sits down on a left hand that momentarily stuns his opponent. Hernandez uses his jab to set up strikes, pumping it and putting at least one or two behind it. Holobaugh is just as active, racing at Hernandez and getting met with a takedown attempt. Holobaugh considers grabbing the cage, but he instead sets up a guillotine choke and hits the ground on his back. He continues squeezing the submission, and Hernandez signals a thumbs-up before the bell sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Holobaugh
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Holobaugh
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Holobaugh
Round 2
Holobaugh has a fire lit under his belly between rounds, and he channels that by marching Hernandez down and throwing everything he can at him. Punches, knees, elbows and even a spinning wheel kick come from “The Hurt,” who is putting the hurt on Hernandez in the early going. Hernandez is tough as a two-dollar steak, and he fires back at his constantly advancing foe. Hernandez chops at the lead leg a few times, and Holobaugh has to change stances because of it. This does not slow Holobaugh, who instead plods forward throwing hands. Hernandez catches him with a right hand, and Holobaugh drills him with his own overhand right that staggers the Texan. Hernandez uses the wall behind him to gather his bearings, and he pushes off of it and re-engages. He only lands a few strikes before Holobaugh is back to imposing his volume and will on his quickly bloodied opponent. Holobaugh checks a kick and meets Hernandez with a right hand, and Hernandez sits in the pocket trying to trade back. When Holobaugh overswings with a right hook, Hernandez takes the wind out of his sails by nailing a perfect double-leg takedown. Hernandez keeps Holobaugh on his back, working with ground strikes while Holobaugh rolls for an armbar. Hernandez is having none of it, staying as heavy as he can while drumming him with several left hands. Holobaugh sells out for the armbar, and he does not have the right grip so Hernandez is in no danger. “The Great Ape” hammers Holobaugh with several big punches, mixing between smothering top control and fierce offense. The round ends with Hernandez hacking at his foe with elbows.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Holobaugh
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Holobaugh
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Holobaugh
Round 3
There is one last clap of hands for the lightweights to engage, and Hernandez immediately shoots in for a double and plants Holobaugh on his back. Hernandez moves to side control, and Holobaugh scrambles and sits up. Hernandez drags him down from behind, and he reasserts himself in half guard while isolating an arm-triangle choke. When Holobaugh scrambles, Hernandez is able to jump on top of him and claim full mount for a second before getting pulled back to half guard again. Holobaugh’s scrambles nearly result in him getting caught in an arm-triangle, and Hernandez is a 155-pound lead weight on his chest. Hernandez has his leg wrapped around Holobaugh’s, and when he moves it, Holobaugh explodes back to his feet. It is now punching time, as Holobaugh wants to slug his foe in the chops. Hernandez looks for the takedown that does not come, and Holobaugh marches him down loaded for bear. Hernandez ducks a punch and hits a crucial double, and he lands in half guard and quickly wraps up a head-and-arm choke. Holobaugh is not overly concerned, with Hernandez not able to get leverage on the other side to lock it down. Holobaugh grabs hold of a kimura—could we see a third in consecutive fights?—but it is not there. Hernandez frees his limb and opens up with torrid offense from up top, laying into “The Hurt” with everything he has left. The two go the distance, and the second round may be the one to decide the victor.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez (29-28 Holobaugh)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez (29-28 Holobaugh)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez (29-28 Holobaugh)
The Official Result
Alexander Hernandez def. Kurt Holobaugh via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Kurt Holobaugh over Alexander Hernandez. He criticizes Hernandez's inconsistency and tendency to wear damage, while Holobaugh's pressure and striking should be effective. Angelo notes that judges favor visible damage, which Holobaugh can inflict. He calls it a 'recipe for success' for Holobaugh.
Big Brady picks Kurt Holobaugh as an underdog, citing Alexander Hernandez's inconsistency, poor cardio, and tendency to crumble under adversity. He notes that Hernandez has lost to fighters like Bill Algeo, Thiago Moises, and Damon Jackson when pressured. Brady believes Holobaugh is tough, has solid cardio, and good grappling, and can have success on the feet as well. He predicts a close decision win for Holobaugh, possibly winning the second and third rounds.
Cody picks Angela Hill as a dog, citing her high volume and ability to mix in takedowns. He notes that Hill's fights are often close and she tends to fight to the level of her competition. He believes she can exploit Yasmin Lucindo's reliance on takedowns and lack of striking volume.
Connor picks Holobaugh because he enjoys rooting for him more, but acknowledges it's a lean. He notes that Holobaugh's relentless pressure and willingness to brawl could cause Hernandez to collapse mentally, as seen in his losses to Damon Jackson, Bill Algeo, and Billy Quarantillo. However, he admits Holobaugh makes terrible decisions and is less athletic.
Daniel does not make a clear pick for this fight. He discusses the matchup briefly but does not state a preference or bet.
The host believes Holobaugh will dictate the pace, which is bad for Hernandez. He expects Holobaugh to touch up Hernandez over 15 minutes and potentially find a finish after a bad takedown attempt from Hernandez in deep water, either by knockout or club and sub.
Paul also picks Angela Hill, emphasizing her experience against Brazilian opponents and her ability to mix takedowns. He notes that Lucindo struggled against Amanda Lemos when taken down and reversed. He believes Hill can bank early rounds with volume and takedowns, then survive the third.
The MMA Guru picks Alexander Hernandez, liking him at lightweight where he performs better. He notes Hernandez trains at Factory X Muay Thai now and has a win over Jim Miller. He thinks Hernandez's shot selection and leg kicks will be effective against Kurt Holobaugh, who is 38 years old. He also mentions Hernandez can use offensive takedowns while fresh. He considers Holobaugh's win over Trey Ogden but believes Hernandez is a step above.
Zane picks Hernandez for athletic reasons, noting that Hernandez is a rock-solid wrestler and hits harder than Holobaugh's recent opponents. He acknowledges that Holobaugh's brawling pressure could cause Hernandez to collapse mentally, but believes Hernandez's physical advantages and the fact that Holobaugh makes terrible decisions give him the edge.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Hernandez | 0 | 63 of 191 | 32% | 65 of 193 | 0 of 12 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Austin Hubbard | 0 | 79 of 204 | 38% | 91 of 217 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:40 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexander Hernandez | 0 | 10 of 44 | 22% | 11 of 45 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Austin Hubbard | 0 | 23 of 60 | 38% | 23 of 60 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Alexander Hernandez | 0 | 22 of 66 | 33% | 22 of 66 | 0 of 7 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Austin Hubbard | 0 | 26 of 71 | 36% | 32 of 77 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:09 | |
| 3 | Alexander Hernandez | 0 | 31 of 81 | 38% | 32 of 82 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Austin Hubbard | 0 | 30 of 73 | 41% | 36 of 80 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:31 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Hernandez | 63 of 191 | 32% | 32 of 142 | 25 of 42 | 6 of 7 | 60 of 177 | 3 of 14 | 0 of 0 |
| Austin Hubbard | 79 of 204 | 38% | 41 of 144 | 22 of 38 | 16 of 22 | 78 of 203 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexander Hernandez | 10 of 44 | 22% | 2 of 27 | 7 of 15 | 1 of 2 | 10 of 42 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Austin Hubbard | 23 of 60 | 38% | 10 of 43 | 4 of 7 | 9 of 10 | 23 of 60 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Alexander Hernandez | 22 of 66 | 33% | 12 of 53 | 7 of 10 | 3 of 3 | 19 of 58 | 3 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Austin Hubbard | 26 of 71 | 36% | 13 of 48 | 8 of 16 | 5 of 7 | 26 of 71 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Alexander Hernandez | 31 of 81 | 38% | 18 of 62 | 11 of 17 | 2 of 2 | 31 of 77 | 0 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Austin Hubbard | 30 of 73 | 41% | 18 of 53 | 10 of 15 | 2 of 5 | 29 of 72 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Hernandez (-215), Hubbard (+170)
Round 1
When this lightweight affair concludes, one of these two fighters will lift their UFC records to .500 while the other will drift further in the wrong direction. Hoping this second stint courtesy of a finals appearance in TUF 31 will go swimmingly, Hubbard (16-7, 4-5 UFC) comes to blows with Texas native Hernandez (14-8, 6-7 UFC). There is no plan of a glove touch to the precede the action while referee Tyler Tomlinson watches on. Don’t worry, fight fans, ref Dave Seljestad is done for the night. He can’t hurt you anymore. Hubbard presses forward right out of the gate, pursuing Hernandez all across the cage after him. The two trade leg kicks until Hernandez lashes out with a right hand down the pipe. Hernandez tosses out a high kick that is blocked, and a right hand is not. Hubbard ducks down and directly into a right hand, and Hernandez keeps it going with a solid uppercut. Hubbard remains in front of Hernandez, but Hernandez is quicker and beats him to the punch. Hubbard jabs his foe in the chest with a kick, and Hernandez responds with a one-two. Hubbard slips back and tags “The Great Ape” with a left hook, backing Hernandez off. Hubbard chases, going for a single and then attacking up high with a kick. Even getting countered often, Hubbard remains right in front of the Texan, and he dings him with a step-in knee as Hernandez goes after a single. The knee busts Hernandez’ nose open, and a thin trickle of blood leak out of it. Hernandez pays it no mind and connects with a one-two, only for Hubbard to come back firing with a body kick. Hubbard misses a front kick by a whisker, and Hernandez’ body shot finds its home. Hubbard whiffs on a right hook and his front kick pushes off the chest, but the active Hernandez tags him with a few kicks and a left hand. Hubbard skims a right hand over the top, and Hernandez is there with two hooks that buckle Hubbard’s knees but do not send him down. “Thud” gathers his thoughts and has a thudding kick bounce off the guard. Hernandez rushes forward with a left hand and a one-two, and Hubbard barely bats an eye and instead attempts an axe kick. The horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez
Mike Fridley scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez
Round 2
Striking exchanges from both men open up the round, with both fighters landing at the end of a few successful blows. Hubbard punches his way into a takedown attempt, and Hernandez rebuffs him with ease and attacks the body. They let go with hooks at the same time, and Hernandez manages to get the better of it. Hubbard continues to maintain heavy pressure, and Hernandez beats him to the punch and drops him to his hands with a straight right hand down the pipe. Hernandez clips Hubbard with a pair of punches, and Hubbard sits down on a low kick that turns “The Great Ape” around. Hubbard drops for a single, and Hernandez manages to fight it off and hop around the cage to stay upright. Hubbard strings together a few punches into a body kick, and Hernandez swats him back with a kick to the thigh. Hernandez sneaks a high kick up, and a left hand gives Hubbard some pause, but Hubbard’s durability holds up. Going after a single, Hubbard turns the corner and takes Hernandez down to his seat from behind but cannot keep him there. Hernandez bounces back up and flashes out a few jabs. Hubbard drills him with a shovel uppercut, and he goes after a takedown, misses and blasts a leaning Hernandez in the face with a crisp knee. Hernandez appears no worse for wear from the destructive blow, and he reaches Hubbard with a left hook. Hubbard slides back and lifts up a knee, and the foot bounces into Hernandez’ cup as Hernandez does not say a word. They do not take a break, instead taking turns to throw at one another. Hernandez punches his way into a double-leg takedown, and Hubbard scoots his way to the fencing to not get taken off his feet. Hubbard breaks free and further bloodies Hernandez’ nose with a left hand. Body shots are traded from the fighters, and they crack one another with right hooks to follow. Hubbard drives forward with a body kick, and Hernandez stands firm and blasts him with a left hand at the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez
Mike Fridley scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez
Round 3
Fists fly almost immediately to start the last round, and Hernandez charges at Hubbard throwing hands and ending a string of strikes with a knee. Hubbard’s own nose is marked up from oncoming fire, but he is right in there readying himself for a firefight. When a Hubbard takedown is rebuffed once more, he is shoved back and does not eat a strike on the way out this time. Hernandez chains a body shot into two lunging punches, throwing himself off-balance while missing with the strikes. Hubbard catches him with a front kick, two clean punches and a spinning back kick, and Hernandez has to shake it off before responding. When Hernandez darts in, Hubbard has a right hand ready to pop him. Hubbard punches a few times, and Hernandez ducks and eats a knee flush. Hubbard stabs a front kick to the body, fails on a takedown and wings a right hand over the top. Hubbard’s front kick finds its home again, and they jab at the same time. Hernandez dodges a front kick to put a left hand in Hubbard’s face, and Hubbard sells out for a takedown he just cannot find. Hernandez circles around in hopes of taking Hubbard’s back during the attempt, and Hubbard stands and leans against the cage. The two split, and Hernandez connects with an elbow. Hubbard digs a knee to the breadbasket while Hernandez throws hammers, and “Thud” knocks his head around with a combo of hooks. Hubbard’s front kick lands cleanly again, and he hurts Hernandez with another short flurry. Hernandez bites down on his mouthpiece and throws back hard, and they slug it out with punches, kicks, knees and a spinning kick for good measure. The round ends as they go for broke, blood flowing out of Hernandez’ face from numerous clean connects.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hubbard (29-28 Hernandez)
Mike Fridley scores the round: 10-9 Hubbard (29-28 Hernandez)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Hubbard (29-28 Hernandez)
The Official Result
Alexander Hernandez def. Austin Hubbard via Split Decision (27-30, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Alexander Hernandez, acknowledging his talent but inconsistency. He notes Hernandez has all the tools but often makes poor decisions. He believes this matchup allows Hernandez to be himself, but he is not confident enough to bet on Hernandez as a favorite. He would only bet if Hernandez is an underdog.
Big Brady picks Austin Hubbard as a live dog, citing Hernandez's poor cardio, lack of heart, and short-notice fight at elevation. He expects Hernandez to win the first round but fade, while Hubbard's toughness and cardio will allow him to take over and win a decision, possibly with a late finish.
Cody picks Hubbard, citing Hernandez's inconsistency and cardio issues. He notes Hubbard's toughness and experience at altitude, believing Hubbard can outlast Hernandez and win a decision or late finish.
Connor picks Hernandez despite his confidence issues, noting that Hernandez has the physical tools to win. He points out that Hubbard is a talentless bully who only wins by being more physical, and Hernandez has the speed and power to overwhelm him. However, he acknowledges the altitude and short notice could be factors.
Daniel Vreeland hesitantly picks Austin Hubbard, despite calling him 'harmless Hubbard.' He dislikes Alexander Hernandez, calling him a fraud and a bust. Vreeland notes that Hernandez has lost four of his last five and that Hubbard is durable and has shown output. He is not confident but refuses to bet on Hernandez.
The host leans with the physicality and explosiveness of Alexander Hernandez, believing he will land better shots, defend Hubbard's grappling, and eventually find a knockout in the second or third round. He notes both fighters are from Colorado but gives the edge to Hernandez.
Paul picks Hubbard, agreeing with Cody about Hernandez's cardio and durability. He thinks Hubbard's pressure and altitude advantage will be key. He expects Hubbard to win by decision or submission.
The MMA Guru picks Alexander Hernandez after flipping a bottle of mayonnaise, which landed on Hernandez's side. He acknowledges Hernandez is better at lightweight and dangerous, but worries about altitude and Hernandez's tendency to gas out. He notes Hubbard trains at elevation but believes Hernandez's lightweight performances are superior. He predicts a TKO early in the fight.
Zane picks Hubbard, citing the altitude and Hernandez's short notice as key factors. He notes that Hernandez has confidence problems and may struggle with the weight cut and altitude. Hubbard is a big strong guy who can grind out a decision if he imposes his physicality.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damon Jackson | 1 | 32 of 87 | 36% | 56 of 119 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:22 |
| Alexander Hernandez | 0 | 42 of 85 | 49% | 85 of 135 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 0 | 0 | 6:18 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Damon Jackson | 0 | 8 of 27 | 29% | 10 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Alexander Hernandez | 0 | 10 of 21 | 47% | 36 of 49 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 2:35 | |
| 2 | Damon Jackson | 0 | 19 of 49 | 38% | 19 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alexander Hernandez | 0 | 23 of 52 | 44% | 33 of 65 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:22 | |
| 3 | Damon Jackson | 1 | 5 of 11 | 45% | 27 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:19 |
| Alexander Hernandez | 0 | 9 of 12 | 75% | 16 of 21 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:21 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damon Jackson | 32 of 87 | 36% | 20 of 69 | 6 of 11 | 6 of 7 | 29 of 80 | 0 of 3 | 3 of 4 |
| Alexander Hernandez | 42 of 85 | 49% | 20 of 60 | 10 of 12 | 12 of 13 | 30 of 68 | 11 of 16 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Damon Jackson | 8 of 27 | 29% | 4 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 8 of 26 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Alexander Hernandez | 10 of 21 | 47% | 3 of 13 | 2 of 3 | 5 of 5 | 8 of 19 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Damon Jackson | 19 of 49 | 38% | 11 of 35 | 5 of 10 | 3 of 4 | 19 of 49 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Alexander Hernandez | 23 of 52 | 44% | 13 of 40 | 4 of 5 | 6 of 7 | 20 of 47 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Damon Jackson | 5 of 11 | 45% | 5 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 2 | 3 of 4 |
| Alexander Hernandez | 9 of 12 | 75% | 4 of 7 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 9 | 1 of 1 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Hernandez (-205), Jackson (+170)
Round 1
Serving as the co-headliner is a match previously scheduled at featherweight. Instead, Hernandez (14-7, 6-6 UFC) botched his weight cut and exceeded the limit by a pound and a half on his second attempt. He surrenders a percentage of his purse to Jackson (22-6-1, 1 NC; 5-4-1, 1 NC UFC). Both men have struggled as of late, with Hernandez going 1-3 in his last four while Jackson has dropped two in a row. One of these two will get in the win column shortly, if referee Jason Herzog has anything to say about it. Hernandez offers an apologetic glove touch, and the magnificently maned Jackson does not accept it. Jackson prods out a front kick, and he wings a right hand that misses by a wide margin. Hernandez comes back at him with a head kick that is easily blocked, and he whips a kick low at the lead wheel. Jackson throws back his own body kick, and he turns Hernandez with a low kick. They both load up with right hands, and Jackson attacks the calf again. Jackson just misses with a front kick aimed at the jaw, and he catches a lazy kick aimed his direction and grabs hold of the younger man. Jackson grapples Hernandez from behind, getting away with a fence grab as Jackson tries to get a hook in standing. Jackson scores a number of knees to the back of the thigh, until Hernandez explodes and gets away. Hernandez manages to lure Jackson into a brief brawl, and Jackson sits down on a calf kick to again fluster Hernandez. Hernandez keeps a poker face and boxes Jackson in the jaw. Jackson catches the body kick and tries to procure a takedown with it, and he presses Hernandez to the wire. Jackson doggedly pursues a single, and he places “The Great Ape” gingerly on his seat. Jackson looks for offense when he gets there, only to find Hernandez springing back up after all of that hard work. The round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Jackson
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Jackson
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Jackson
Round 2
Jackson begins the round with a head kick attempt, and he bloodies up his foe’s nose during a punch exchange. Jackson surges forward with two punches, and he turns his hips into a kick to the side. Hernandez tries to throw back a few times, but he misses the mark each time. Jackson jabs his way forward, and he hammers the calf with a kick. Jackson keeps doing work on the calf, and they both let loose with big haymaker right hands. Hernandez times a leg kick with an overhand right, and he counters with a solid right hand when Jackson tries to come back at him. Hernandez zips a left hand around the guard, and he leans back to let a head kick buzz past him. Hernandez chops at the front leg of his foe, and that reminds Jackson to do the same. Jackson rushes forward with punches, and Hernandez strafes to the side and eats a body kick on the way out. They both swing for the fences, and Jackson’s chin holds up although a cut opens up on the bridge of his nose. Hernandez targets jabs on that bloody spot, and he gets off a calf kick as he backs away. Jackson punches twice and hits a double, putting Hernandez on his side. This results in a stalemate until Jackson springs into action, and when Hernandez stands up, Jackson takes his back and gets a hook in. Jackson slithers his arm around the chin, and he lets it go to slug Hernandez in the chops repeatedly. The round ends as Jackson is pounding on him.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Jackson
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Jackson
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Jackson
Round 3
Jackson only needs a few seconds before delivering a fierce leg kick. When he throws a second, Hernandez times it and rifles a right hand straight down the middle. Jackson goes down like a sack of bricks, and Hernandez leaps on top of him and starts hunting for a choke. Jackson scrambles to get out of the initial danger, and Hernandez climbs into full mount and squeezes down with an arm-triangle choke. Jackson turns all the way around and fights back to his feet, and Hernandez charges at him throwing bombs. Jackson uses that momentum to turn the corner and pursue a takedown, and “The Great Ape” digs in his heels and does not hit the mat. Hernandez considers going for an ankle pick, and Jackson kicks off the cage and manages to take Hernandez’ back. Hernandez gets flattened out as Jackson starts working him with fists, until he powers back to his feet and tries to buck Jackson off of him. Jackson keeps tight and hangs on until Hernandez manages to work him off. Jackson turns through and goes for a single, dropping down to his knees to complete it. Jackson grinds on the younger fighter when he cannot complete the takedown, and they jockey for position against the cage. They turn one another around without gaining an advantage or landing much of note. Jackson sticks his tongue out, and he lands several elbows and punches to separate right before the horn sounds. Scores could be all over the map.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez (29-28 Jackson)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez (29-28 Jackson)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez (29-28 Jackson)
The Official Result
Damon Jackson def. Alexander Hernandez via Split Decision (27-30, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Alexander Hernandez but with very low confidence. He acknowledges Hernandez is the better overall fighter and athlete, but he hates the weight cut to 145 lbs, which he thinks makes Hernandez slower, chinny, and potentially cardio-compromised. He notes that Damon Jackson is the type of grappler who can spoil plans and slow the pace. Angelo says he is only picking Hernandez because he is better everywhere except BJJ, but he hates the weight cut.
Big Brady picks Alexander Hernandez to win by first-round knockout. He notes that Hernandez has the tools to win, including takedown defense to stuff Jackson's shots, and is the much better striker. He questions Jackson's chin and believes Hernandez will knock him out early. However, he acknowledges that if the fight reaches the second round, Hernandez tends to slow down and get broken.
Cody also picks Hernandez but is wary of betting him at -210. He notes Hernandez's explosive first round and power, but his cardio fades after 7.5 minutes. Cody thinks Hernandez likely disposes of Jackson in the first round, but if it goes longer, Jackson's craftiness and submission threat could flip the fight. He calls it a dodgy proposition.
Daniel Vreeland confidently picks Damon Jackson to upset Alexander Hernandez. He argues Hernandez is a front-runner who fades after round one, citing examples like the Billy Quarantillo fight where Jackson dragged him into deep waters. Vreeland believes Jackson's awkward length and grappling can neutralize Hernandez's early explosiveness, and if the fight goes past the first round, Jackson will take over. He notes Hernandez's recent win over Bill Algeo was unimpressive because Algeo is not a finishing threat.
Hernandez is faster, more explosive, and has more power. Jackson will struggle to close the distance and get takedowns. Hernandez can land big shots and likely knock Jackson out. The under 2.5 rounds is a good play as the fight should end early.
Paul picks Hernandez but is hesitant because Hernandez is inconsistent. He likes Hernandez's athleticism, speed, strength, and wrestling, and thinks he can ground-and-pound Jackson. However, he worries about Hernandez's cardio and confidence, noting that he falls off after the first round. Paul sees a path where Hernandez finishes Jackson early, but if it goes longer, Jackson's BJJ and durability could cause problems.
The host struggles with this pick, noting Jackson's surprising wins (e.g., over Jim Miller) but criticizes his lack of punching conviction. He picks Hernandez as the younger, more explosive fighter with reach and good initial takedown defense. He envisions Hernandez starting fast and clipping Jackson, though he admits Jackson could lay on him. He ultimately goes with Hernandez, calling Jackson 'Mega Mind' and hoping to see him removed from the UFC.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bill Algeo | 0 | 75 of 156 | 48% | 76 of 157 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:35 |
| Alexander Hernandez | 1 | 110 of 244 | 45% | 119 of 257 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bill Algeo | 0 | 16 of 39 | 41% | 16 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alexander Hernandez | 0 | 27 of 61 | 44% | 27 of 61 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Bill Algeo | 0 | 28 of 59 | 47% | 28 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:27 |
| Alexander Hernandez | 1 | 44 of 89 | 49% | 52 of 100 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 | |
| 3 | Bill Algeo | 0 | 31 of 58 | 53% | 32 of 59 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
| Alexander Hernandez | 0 | 39 of 94 | 41% | 40 of 96 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bill Algeo | 75 of 156 | 48% | 25 of 80 | 45 of 66 | 5 of 10 | 75 of 154 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Alexander Hernandez | 110 of 244 | 45% | 46 of 156 | 33 of 50 | 31 of 38 | 108 of 241 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bill Algeo | 16 of 39 | 41% | 1 of 12 | 11 of 19 | 4 of 8 | 16 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Alexander Hernandez | 27 of 61 | 44% | 6 of 28 | 7 of 15 | 14 of 18 | 27 of 61 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Bill Algeo | 28 of 59 | 47% | 12 of 35 | 15 of 22 | 1 of 2 | 28 of 58 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Alexander Hernandez | 44 of 89 | 49% | 21 of 62 | 13 of 16 | 10 of 11 | 43 of 88 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Bill Algeo | 31 of 58 | 53% | 12 of 33 | 19 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 31 of 57 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Alexander Hernandez | 39 of 94 | 41% | 19 of 66 | 13 of 19 | 7 of 9 | 38 of 92 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Algeo (-135), Hernandez (+114)
Round 1
Switching over to the main card, but still broadcasting on ESPN+ stateside, two featherweights right on the borderline of .500 UFC records will collide with intentions of stay on the right side of that line. Former lightweight Hernandez (14-6, 6-5 UFC) will try again in the lower weight division of 145 pounds, and Algeo (17-7, 4-3 UFC) will welcome him back down with bad intentions. With oversight and not a lick of nonsense from referee Keith Peterson, the two men tap their gloves together. Algeo switches stances when he starts the fight, reaching out with kicks from both legs. Hernandez swings a head kick at him that buzzes past his hair, and Algeo avoids it and salutes the strike. Both men trade low kicks, and Hernandez goes after one to the body. Algeo checks a kick and kicks the calf back, and he leans back from a power right hand that misses him by a small margin. Hernandez kicks his foe in the chest, and Algeo springs into action with two hooks and a high kick. Hernandez ricochets off the fencing to reset, and he leans low to block a head kick before the full power is on it. Hernandez aims punches to the midsection, and he opens up the head with these strikes. “The Great Ape” connects with a solid leg kick, and he ducks a head kick. Algeo kicks him in the gut with a side kick and sends him flying, and Hernandez springs back to his feet and is ready to block a spinning kick fired his way. Hernandez goes up high with his shin, and Algeo is able to defend against it and chip at the lead wheel with another kick. Algeo targets the body with a kick, and he snaps out a jab, and turns a full rotation to spin with a kick to the body. Algeo looks for an intercepting knee when Hernandez ducks to punch the body, and Hernandez aims his heavy strikes that are coming up just short. Hernandez digs punches to the midsection, and he keeps his guard up high in time to defend against a hook kick. Hernandez fires back with a kick that glances off the shoulder of his foe, and Algeo replies with a number of pawing jabs. Hernandez sweeps out with a body kick, and Algeo is right there to give him a low kick back when he sets his leg down. Hernandez looks for a leaping combination, only for Algeo to shoulder roll every blow and circle on the outside. Algeo threatens with a kick and a spin kick, but Hernandez does not bite on them and lets him turn back around. One body kick from Algeo concludes the round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Algeo
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Algeo
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Algeo
Round 2
Round 2 begins with a half-hearted glove touch, and Hernandez follows it quickly with a kick to the ribs. Hernandez loads up on a right hand, and Algeo shakes it off and jabs the body. Hernandez puts power behind his strikes, and Algeo stays elusive and meets him with a knee up the middle. Algeo ducks a haymaker, and a second strike from “The Great Ape” bounces off the chest. Algeo jabs the nose and body, and Hernandez starts to crowd him and force exchanges in the pocket. The Texan parries a few punches and comes back with a big right hand, and Algeo turns to the side and lets it glide past him. Algeo fires off a right hand to the eye socket, and Hernandez complains that it was an eye poke. Peterson calls time and allows Hernandez to recover, and replays show it was the knuckle of Algeo’s thumb that jammed into the eye – which could be considered a legal blow. However, if Algeo’s thumb was not locked into the fist, it would be the legitimate foul, and Hernandez continues to take the time he needs as Peterson brings in the doctor to check his condition. After two minutes and 15 seconds, Hernandez informs the medical staff and Peterson that he is good to go, and the fighters touch gloves and have no ill will about the perceived foul. The action begins immediately, and Hernandez is headhunting with power strikes and stalking Algeo down. Algeo skirts on the outside and lands a few kicks to varying targets, with his intention of keeping Hernandez missing while he fights at his preferred range. Hernandez loads up on everything, and a few right hands get Algeo’s attention. When one solid right hook slams into Algeo’s chin, Algeo is energized and starts putting some power into his own strikes as well. Algeo turns his hips into a low kick, and a straight left hand that follows sits Hernandez down. Hernandez pops back up and ties Algeo up, trying to get his bearings back after getting his bell rung. The two separate, and Hernandez comes back with a vengeance. Algeo slips to the side and jumps at his man with a knee that pops into the nose, bloodying it up instantly. Algeo spins with an elbow that clacks into Hernandez’ cheek, and Hernandez tanks it and is loaded for bear. Hernandez plods forward and digs a punch to the body, and he chains a head kick into it that makes Algeo shake his head. Hernandez targets the body and goes up high, and Algeo leans back to take the worst out of it. The round ends with both fighters trading.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Algeo
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Algeo
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Algeo
Round 3
The featherweights are amped up and ready to finish the fight off with style, as the limited crowd gives it up for the two fighters. Hernandez races out of his corner with bad intentions, throwing hammers until he bullies Algeo to the wall and goes after a takedown. Algeo shuts it down and pushes Hernandez back, and he busts Hernandez in the chops with a straight right hand. Algeo stays loose while Hernandez is a coiled string, and Hernandez just misses a counter left that is a bit too low to find the chin. Algeo uses his traditional martial arts stance to put two side kicks on the chest in rapid succession, as range-keeping weapons that disrupt the bombs Hernandez looks to throw. Algeo suddenly whips a kick up high to hurt Hernandez, and he strings several punches into a body kick to conclude it with an exclamation point. Hernandez is tough as nails, as he swings back with all his might, with looping right hooks and heavy kicks to the body. Algeo reaches his man with a sweeping right hook and a left to the body, and Hernandez gives him a hard right hand back on the chin. Hernandez follows it with a second, and Algeo cannot quite shoulder roll that one. Algeo dings his man with a left hand with his thumb outstretched, and Hernandez tells Peterson he was poked in the eye again. Peterson asks Hernandez to keep fighting, and he does just that. Both men keep trading, with Hernandez kicking the body and aiming a few to the head as well. Hernandez steps in with a right hand on the jaw, and he slams his shin on the waist to follow. Algeo meanders back, and Hernandez blasts him with a huge right hook. Algeo takes it and does not bat an eye, instead going right back at his foe and making sure to not allow Hernandez to land strikes for free. Hernandez continues to stalk Algeo down, unloading anything he can throw, and they both land massive shots at the same time. Algeo tags Hernandez with a knee, Hernandez cracks him with a right, and Algeo trips him up and throws him to the mat. Hernandez climbs back up, and the scrap comes to a conclusion.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Algeo (30-27 Algeo)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Algeo (30-27 Algeo)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Algeo (30-27 Algeo)
The Official Result
Bill Algeo def. Alexander Hernandez via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Big Brady picks Bill Algeo, citing Alexander Hernandez's poor cardio, durability, and heart. He notes that Hernandez has been finished in the second round in most of his losses and that Algeo is tough, has never been knocked out, and can maintain a high pace. He expects Hernandez to win the first round but fade, allowing Algeo to secure a second-round finish, either by knockout or submission.
Cody picks Hernandez, noting his athleticism, power, and improved cardio. He believes Hernandez is still in his prime and that Algeo's lack of physicality and takedown defense will be exploited. He suggests live betting Algeo after the first round if Hernandez fades, but expects Hernandez to win.
Daniel Levi picks Alexander Hernandez hesitantly, acknowledging his history as a 'talented flake' but seeing improvement in his last fight against Jim Miller. He believes Hernandez is the better athlete, faster, and more explosive, but questions his mental consistency. He notes that Bill Algeo has lost to similar talented flakes like Ricardo Ramos and Andre Fili. Levi thinks if Hernandez keeps his composure, he can win, but it's a tough call.
Lucrative James bet Hernandez as an underdog and sees him winning round one at a high clip, possibly by knockout. He believes Hernandez's wrestling is underrated and he can get takedowns at will. He thinks Algeo does not have the pressure or pace of Billy Quarantillo or Drew Dober, so Hernandez won't gas as badly. He calculates Hernandez should be around -150 based on round-by-round analysis.
Algeo has a better gas tank and an unorthodox style that will trouble Hernandez. Hernandez has a history of slowing down in later rounds, and Algeo's awkward movement and pressure should wear on him. Algeo may even get a late submission. The line movement toward Hernandez makes Algeo even more valuable. Expect Algeo to pull away in the second and third rounds.
Paul picks Hernandez, citing his superior athleticism and power. He notes that Algeo is not physically strong and has been taken down in every UFC fight. Hernandez's wrestling and striking should be enough to win, and Paul likes the plus money value.
The MMA Guru picks Bill Algeo over Alexander Hernandez. He believes Algeo is very tricky to finish and underrated, with wins over Joe Anderson Brito and Herbert Burns. He criticizes Hernandez's cardio at featherweight, noting he gassed after round one against Quarantillo. He predicts Algeo will capitalize on Hernandez's mistakes and get a third-round finish, possibly by submission or TKO. He also mentions Algeo's potential for a post-fight mic moment.
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