UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gane · Feb 27, 2021 · Heavyweight · Completed
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gane Next Fight
Age 36
Height 6' 4"
Reach 81.0"
Weight 245 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 38
Height 6' 2"
Reach 78.0"
Weight 242 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Ciryl Gane
5.29 SLpM
61.0% Str. Acc.
2.33 SApM
60.0% Str. Def.
0.68 TD Avg
25.0% TD Acc.
47.0% TD Def.
0.6 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Jairzinho Rozenstruik
3.48 SLpM
48.0% Str. Acc.
2.63 SApM
52.0% Str. Def.
0.0 TD Avg
0.0% TD Acc.
72.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Ciryl Gane
Moneyline
FanDuel -235
KO/TKO
BetWay +180
Submission
BetWay +400
Decision
BetWay +250
Jairzinho Rozenstruik
Moneyline
BetWay +200
KO/TKO
BetWay +275
Submission
BetWay +2800
Decision
BetWay +900
Ciryl Gane - Fight History
SCHED vs Alex Pereira
UFC Freedom 250 · Jun 14, 2026
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Lean picked Jun 3, 2026 (11 days before fight)
Alex Pereira

AJ leans towards Pereira, noting that Pereira's leg kicks will slow Gane's lateral movement and his punch power is a huge difference maker. He acknowledges the odds are essentially even and that Gane could win, but favors Pereira.

"Alex's really going to kick the [__] out of Gan's legs to slow his lateral movement down. Then it'll really get interesting."
NC vs Tom Aspinall
NC R1 4:35 · UFC 321 · Oct 25, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tom Aspinall 0 27 of 39 69% 27 of 39 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Ciryl Gane 0 30 of 40 75% 30 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tom Aspinall 0 27 of 39 69% 27 of 39 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Ciryl Gane 0 30 of 40 75% 30 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tom Aspinall 27 of 39 69% 14 of 25 5 of 6 8 of 8 27 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ciryl Gane 30 of 40 75% 8 of 16 9 of 11 13 of 13 30 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tom Aspinall 27 of 39 69% 14 of 25 5 of 6 8 of 8 27 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ciryl Gane 30 of 40 75% 8 of 16 9 of 11 13 of 13 30 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Tom Aspinall vs. Ciryl Gane
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Aspinall (-380), Gane (+300)

Round 1
Despite never engaging in an undisputed championship bout, Aspinall (15-3, 8-1 UFC) is the current undisputed heavyweight king. He achieved this feat by annihilating Sergei Pavlovich in 69 seconds to claim the interim strap, and then defended that silver title by punching out Curtis Blaydes in exactly one minute. He has been away for a smidge under 15 months, during which time he was elevated to the undisputed holder when Jon Jones cast his throne aside again. Like the Liverpudlian, Gane (13-2, 10-2 UFC)—who forgot his groin cup—has only held the interim belt, so there are a lot of marbles on the line. A potential date with either Jones or light heavyweight kingpin Alex Pereira looms, and referee Jason Herzog will be on the ball to make sure everything stays copacetic. He takes a deep breath and brings the two to the middle of the cage to issue instructions, and the big men gladly touch ‘em up with no ill will between them. It’s on with the show.
Gane marches forward and slips a right hand, and he cannot get out of the way of a body kick. Aspinall rushes after him, ignoring kicks and jabs to hurl his big right hand, and he knocks Gane back to the wall. Gane responds with his own overhand right and a kick, and he barely blocks a head kick in time. Every collision is a veritable car crash of danger and pain with these two heavyweights, and Gane has already bloodied up Aspinall’s nose. Aspinall shoots for a takedown, and the Frenchman bucks him to the side without concern and resets on the outside. Aspinall fires off a high kick that pounds into the raised guard, and Gane bounces back and forth on his toes while looking for his sharp jab. Gane pump-fakes to draw a reaction out of his opponent, and Aspinall comes out swinging and trips Gane up with a low kick. The Brit spins with a back kick to the torso, and he darts in and out to draw Gane’s reactions.
Gane jabs him in the stomach, and Aspinall counters with a right hand. Gane stomps the front leg with a kick and peppers Aspinall with his jab, and he tries to escape a body kick but is not out of range. The French fighter keeps behind his jab, and he snaps Aspinall’s head back with a particularly strong one. Gane hyperextends the lead leg with his stomp kick, and Aspinall thinks about a spin and bails on it, only to offer a high-five and a grin to his opponent. Gane pecks away with his sharp jab, staying light on his feet and switching stances frequently. Aspinall chambers and fires a hefty leg kick that Gane takes well, and Gane’s jab is bloodying up the Brit more and more with every impact. They crash together with punches, and Gane’s fingers push off and jam into both of Aspinall’s eyes at once in a Three Stooges-esque disaster. Herzog sees it and calls time, and Aspinall walks to the cage and leans on it in pain. Herzog calls in the doctor as the replays shows both eyes were impacted. Aspinall appears to tell the doctor that he cannot see, and that would be the worst possible outcome if true. Herzog goes over to calm Aspinall down, giving him a towel to hold over his eye and take more time. Once more, Aspinall appears to tell someone that he cannot see. Aspinall is struggling to even open his eye, and he has the doctor further check on the condition. Herzog handles this ordeal like a consummate professional, asking Aspinall once more if he can see. Aspinall says no, so Herzog declares properly that this heavyweight championship bout will be ruled a no contest due to the accidental foul. Gane, learning this news, collapses to the ground in contrition and melancholy, and fans abandon ship in droves and depart the building silently.
Aspinall, who still cannot open his right eye, is incensed that the remaining audience is booing him and curses them out. They keep booing until they see the definitive slow-mo replay, and ouch. He does not stick around long, as he wants to get his eye checked out by the professionals. The crestfallen Gane apologizes to everyone for the inadvertent foul—sometimes these things really do happen in MMA—and hopes that he can get another crack at Aspinall soon. If they run it back in the near future, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.

The Official Result
Tom Aspinall vs. Ciryl Gane is Ruled a No Contest (Accidental Eye Poke) R1 4:35
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 19, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Tom Aspinall

Angelo picks Tom Aspinall confidently, calling Ciryl Gane undeserving of the title shot. He notes Aspinall's well-rounded skills, 100% takedown accuracy and defense, and hand speed. However, he admits uncertainty about Aspinall's ability to handle adversity or a long fight, as he has only fought 16 minutes in nine UFC fights. Despite this, he believes Aspinall wins any way he wants.

"I'm going to pick Tom, all right? Tom's the pick. ... I think Tom beats Ciryl any way he wants to. So, he is the pick."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Tom Aspinall

Big Brady is extremely confident in Tom Aspinall, stating he should run through Ciryl Gane. He criticizes Gane's takedown defense and grappling, noting he was outgrappled by Ngannou, Volkov, and submitted by Jones. Brady believes Aspinall has the power to KO anyone and the grappling to submit Gane. He expects Aspinall to close the distance, get the fight to the ground, and finish Gane in the first round via submission.

Aspinall by first round submission
"Give me Aspinall here. Give me Aspinall to win this fight by first round submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Tom Aspinall

Cody picks Tom Aspinall to retain the title, citing Aspinall's wrecking ball form and Gane's exploitable grappling. He notes that while Gane has good elbows and cardio, his takedown defense is weak, as seen against Jon Jones and Francis Ngannou. Cody believes Aspinall can knock him out or submit him early, but acknowledges the risk if the fight extends past the first round due to Aspinall's history of early finishes and potential cardio issues.

"Tom Aspinall retains for me."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Tom Aspinall

Connor also picks Aspinall, emphasizing that Gane struggles against opponents who press him and don't respect his range. He compares Aspinall's approach to Volkov's pressure in their fight, which caused Gane to make poor grappling decisions. Connor believes Aspinall's athleticism and wrestling will be too much for Gane, though he notes Aspinall's cardio could be a concern if the fight goes long.

"I have to pick Aspinall. And I think even if it goes all rounds, he might still be in the driver's seat the whole way through, but this could end up being an extremely ugly fight."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Tom Aspinall

Daniel Vreeland is extremely high on Tom Aspinall, calling him the 'baddest man on the planet' and praising his one-two combination, ground game, and finishing ability. He acknowledges Ciryl Gane's diversity and leg lock threat but believes Aspinall's speed and power will be too much. He notes that Aspinall hasn't been tested past the first round but doesn't see that as a flaw. He picks Aspinall to win decisively.

"I haven't picked against this guy yet, and I'm not going to start Saturday night."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Oct 20, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Tom Aspinall

Lucrative James picks Tom Aspinall to win by submission or ground-and-pound finish in the first round. He highlights Aspinall's massive power and speed advantage early, as well as his superior grappling, noting that Ciryl Gane has repeatedly shown grappling holes against strikers like Francis Ngannou and Alexander Volkov. He acknowledges Gane's technical striking and cardio advantage if the fight goes late, but believes Aspinall's early finishing ability and wrestling will be too much. He also mentions that Gane has been training in Abu Dhabi for a month, giving him an acclimatization edge, but still favors Aspinall.

submission or ground-and-pound finish in round 1
"I predict a Tom Aspenol submission in this fight or a ground and pound finish from top position in the very first round."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Tom Aspinall

The host believes Aspinall's physical advantages in speed and power will be too much for Gane. He expects Aspinall to touch Gane up on the feet and mix in takedowns, leading to a finish within two rounds.

finish within 2 rounds
"I really think it's going to be Aspenol touching him up on the feet with the power, but also mixing in a few takedowns. And I think that should lead to a finish within two rounds."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Tom Aspinall

Paul also picks Tom Aspinall, emphasizing his well-rounded game with high-level BJJ and knockout power. He notes Aspinall's 100% takedown accuracy in the UFC and believes he can submit Gane similar to Jon Jones. However, Paul warns that if Aspinall doesn't finish early, his cardio could be a concern, as seen in the Arlovski fight, and suggests live betting on Gane if the fight goes past round one.

"pre-fight flop for me it's a champion retains as well. I got Tom Aspinall."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 21, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Tom Aspinall

The MMA Guru picks Tom Aspinall by Kimura submission in the first round, around 3-4 minutes. He believes Aspinall's speed and power will be too much for Gane, and that Gane overthinks in high-pressure situations. He compares their common opponents (Spivac, Volkov, Tuivasa) and sees Aspinall as levels above. He predicts Aspinall will sting Gane on the feet, then get a body lock takedown and transition to a Kimura from top position. He also mentions a PrizePicks bet on Aspinall under 1.5 rounds.

Kimura submission in round one (3-4 minutes); also mentioned in a PrizePicks parlay for less than 1.5 total rounds
"I've got Tom Aspinall by Kimura. I've got a Kimura submission for Tom Aspinall and I'll tell you why."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Tom Aspinall

Zane picks Aspinall, believing his pressure and willingness to exchange will overwhelm Gane. He notes Aspinall's lack of deep fight experience but thinks his aggression and wrestling will force Gane into mistakes, likely finishing within two rounds. Zane acknowledges Gane's technical striking but doubts his ability to handle Aspinall's relentless forward pressure.

Aspinall finishes in two rounds
"I'm going to pick Tom Aspinall. I am too. And I think he probably finishes gone or in two rounds because gone is so mistake prone on the mat and Aspinall is so violent and aggressive on the mat."
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · Dec 07, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ciryl Gane 0 43 of 61 70% 48 of 66 2 of 4 50% 2 0 3:40
Alexander Volkov 0 39 of 71 54% 105 of 140 3 of 4 75% 1 0 4:32
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ciryl Gane 0 12 of 15 80% 17 of 20 1 of 1 100% 2 0 1:38
Alexander Volkov 0 10 of 14 71% 12 of 18 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:34
2 Ciryl Gane 0 27 of 39 69% 27 of 39 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:39
Alexander Volkov 0 25 of 47 53% 25 of 47 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
3 Ciryl Gane 0 4 of 7 57% 4 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:23
Alexander Volkov 0 4 of 10 40% 68 of 75 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:58
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ciryl Gane 43 of 61 70% 14 of 30 10 of 11 19 of 20 40 of 57 0 of 1 3 of 3
Alexander Volkov 39 of 71 54% 19 of 46 18 of 20 2 of 5 36 of 67 3 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ciryl Gane 12 of 15 80% 3 of 6 5 of 5 4 of 4 9 of 12 0 of 0 3 of 3
Alexander Volkov 10 of 14 71% 2 of 5 7 of 7 1 of 2 9 of 13 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Ciryl Gane 27 of 39 69% 9 of 19 5 of 6 13 of 14 27 of 38 0 of 1 0 of 0
Alexander Volkov 25 of 47 53% 14 of 32 10 of 12 1 of 3 23 of 44 2 of 3 0 of 0
3 Ciryl Gane 4 of 7 57% 2 of 5 0 of 0 2 of 2 4 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alexander Volkov 4 of 10 40% 3 of 9 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2024 (7 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

Angelo picks Ciryl Gane, stating he will win the same way he did in their first fight: with superior footwork and technique. He notes Volkov hasn't shown improvements in striking or wrestling since then, and hasn't attempted a takedown in years. Gane's striking is elite, as shown in his 109-11 significant strike advantage over Sergey Pavlovich. The fight is only three rounds, favoring Gane.

"croan wins this fight the exact same way he won the first one"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

Cody picks Gane, expecting a similar striking battle to their first fight. He notes Volkov's momentum but believes Gane's speed and Muay Thai will outpoint him. He suggests Gane by decision, as Volkov likely won't wrestle. He also mentions a YOLO bet on Volkov by submission at long odds.

Gane by decision; Volkov by submission (small bet)
"I think Gane, Gane by decision... I took a little bit of Volkov by submission at 22-to-1."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

Connor states that Gane is simply better at the same game Volkov plays. He notes that Gane is faster, more fluid, and operates at the same range more efficiently. The first fight was a dominant win for Gane, and Connor sees no reason for a different outcome unless Volkov switches to wrestling, which he doubts will work.

Gane opened at -235, currently -342; Volkov opened at +202, currently +283. Connor thinks Gane should be a much heavier favorite.
"We saw this fight. He should be a massive favorite. He won it super easily."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Dec 3, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

Daniel picks Gane based on his previous win and superior athleticism, but notes Volkov's hunger and recent resurgence. He mentions Gane's mental fragility in big fights and Volkov's four-fight win streak, making this a lean rather than confident pick.

"I'm a pick gone, I understand why someone would want to take the shot on Vulkov."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

Daniel Vreeland picks Ciryl Gane, stating that Volkov used to be much bigger or longer than his opponents, but that's not the case here. He notes Gane is better technically on the feet and can avoid getting hit, allowing him to pick Volkov apart and likely win a decision.

"um give me gone here um volov I it's actually what I said yesterday about uh the brand new brand fight volov used to be much bigger or at least longer than his opponent it's not really the case here …"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Jeff Fox picks Alexander Volkov for the value, noting that Volkov has looked infinitely better in his last few fights and is clearly making improvements late in his career. He points to Volkov's dominant win over Pavlovich as evidence, and mentions Volkov's underrated wrestling and Ezekiel choke finish. Fox believes Volkov learns from his previous loss to Gane and will show a better version of himself, and that the fight was closer than the odds suggest.

"I'm going to mix it up I'm going to take the value on Alexander volov here there it is I I think and I'm not like super sold on volov here but like in his last few fights he's looked …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

Lucrative James picks Ciryl Gane to win by decision, expecting a repeat of their first fight. He highlights Gane's elite jab and in-fight adaptations as key. He predicts a 49-46 scorecard, with Gane outworking Volkov over five rounds. He doesn't see Volkov improving enough to change the outcome.

wins by decision, 49-46
"I think it's going to be a 4-1 decision I'll call 49 46 in this one."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Ciryl Gane

Gane will utilize his footwork, speed, and striking to get the better of Volkov once again, staying away from any grappling threat or power shots. Gane is still the better mixed martial artist and will win this fight on the scorecards.

"I'm expecting gone to utilize his footwork speed and striking to get the better of volov once again"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

Paul picks Gane, citing his cleaner striking and speed advantage. He notes Volkov's wrestling ability but doubts he'll use it. He thinks Gane will win a decision in a three-round fight, as Volkov is content to stand and trade.

"I think Gane, Gane by decision... it'll be two heavyweights in a pure striking battle."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

The MMA Guru picks Gane in the rematch, noting Volkov's improved standup but believing Gane can match his output and movement. He thinks Volkov cannot hurt Gane, while Gane has a better chance of hurting Volkov. He also cites Volkov's knee injury postponing the fight as a factor favoring Gane, especially in a low-kick battle.

"I'm G to go with sirel G in the rematch here volov could get it done I wasn't going to pick him the first time"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

Zane echoes Connor, noting that Gane's speed and movement outclass Volkov. He points out that Volkov's game relies on range and size, but Gane is faster and can operate in the same range. Zane also mentions that Volkov would need to change his approach drastically to win, which is unlikely.

"Cyril Gane is simply better at the kind of game that Volkov has spent his whole career playing."
TKO (punches) R2 3:44 · UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Spivac · Sep 02, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ciryl Gane 0 109 of 156 69% 110 of 157 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Serghei Spivac 0 11 of 44 25% 11 of 44 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ciryl Gane 0 51 of 69 73% 52 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Serghei Spivac 0 7 of 26 26% 7 of 26 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
2 Ciryl Gane 0 58 of 87 66% 58 of 87 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Serghei Spivac 0 4 of 18 22% 4 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ciryl Gane 109 of 156 69% 48 of 85 39 of 49 22 of 22 105 of 152 4 of 4 0 of 0
Serghei Spivac 11 of 44 25% 7 of 38 2 of 3 2 of 3 11 of 44 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ciryl Gane 51 of 69 73% 19 of 32 19 of 24 13 of 13 50 of 68 1 of 1 0 of 0
Serghei Spivac 7 of 26 26% 5 of 23 1 of 1 1 of 2 7 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Ciryl Gane 58 of 87 66% 29 of 53 20 of 25 9 of 9 55 of 84 3 of 3 0 of 0
Serghei Spivac 4 of 18 22% 2 of 15 1 of 2 1 of 1 4 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Ciryl Gane vs. Sergey Spivak
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Gane (-166), Spivak (+140)

Round 1
It’s heavyweight time. In the main attraction, with 25 minutes or less to get things done, former interim champ Gane (11-2, 8-2 UFC) wants to give home country fans something to cheer about in a big way. Standing across from him will be Spivak (16-3, 7-3 UFC), a veritable polar bear that has developed into a serious contender. In this classic striker vs. grappler contest, anything could happen. Referee Marc Goddard will be here for it. The respect is ample as the big men bump their fists together, and away we go. Spivak moves right to the center of the cage, and Gane keeps his hands low and circles around him. Gane splits the guard with a quick jab, and he pushes out with a front kick. Spivak responds with a body kick, and Gane switches stances and paws out with a leg kick. Gane snipes with a jab, and he dips a looping right hand that slides past his shoulder. Gane hand-fights when Spivak gets close, and he jabs the midsection. Spivak attempts a takedown, and Gane pushes both of his hands on the back of Spivak’s head to stop it in its tracks. Gane picks away with front kicks to the body and jabs, and Spivak is already not having a great time in there. Biting down on his mouthpiece, Spivak closes the distance and tags Gane with a right hand. Spivak sells out for a charging takedown, and Gane expertly sprawls, allows Spivak to stand back up, and knees him square in the liver. Gane targets all areas with impunity, and both men snap the other’s head back with power jabs. Gane works the body and goes up top when places open up. Gane continues to do work and evade a few looping strikes, and a jab makes Spivak blink it out repeatedly. The continued jabs from Gane bloody up the nose, and his chipping leg kicks are having an impact as well. Gane digs two hands to the body, and he ducks the overhand right counter with ease. Gane styles on Spivak with distant strikes, and his range is such that Spivak cannot touch him back. Gane doubles up on a jab and pushes out a right hand, and he chains a high kick that slaps into the guard. Spivak lumbers forward, and Gane dances around while scoring three jabs and a right hand to conclude the fairly one-sided round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gane
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Gane
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Gane

Round 2
The heavyweights touch gloves to get started again, and Gane instantly enters cruising altitude with frustrating leg kicks, jabs and other distance-keeping strikes. Spivak looks to catch one low kick and crash the pocket with an overhand right, and Gane parries him aside without allowing the takedown to materialize. Gane confidently stays seemingly right in front of his opponent, landing shots to anywhere he sees fit, and Spivak is tough but not offering much back effectively. Gane dips to his side, and Spivak times a clean left hook. Gane responds by putting some pop into his shots, and he makes Spivak shell up momentarily to protect from further harm. The Frenchman springs back and forth, ducking a right hook and jabbing the body with his toes outstretched when eh resets. Gane strings punches up top to a few to the body, and he steps in with a knee to the breadbasket for good measure. Gane keeps working the body brilliantly, and he steps in with a vertical elbow and a right hand to follow it. Gane digs his shin to the liver, and he leans back right as Spivak is about to counter him. Gane finds a right hand right on the target with odd timing on it, and Spivak reels and bounces off the fencing. Gane blasts the body again and again, and one knee bends the Moldovan over in pain. Spivak recovers, but he is getting picked apart. Spivak is offering nothing back, and Gane lays into him with his punishing fists. Spivak leans over and a few blows bounce off the back of his head, but Gane keeps right on clubbing him without any concern of reprisal.
The strikes do not stop coming from Gane, and he pushes Spivak back to the fence and unloads with punches, hammerfists, tomahawk arcing fists and anything else he feels like drilling Spivak with. As Goddard watches closely, Spivak’s balance nearly betrays him. Before Spivak hits the ground in defeat, Goddard leaps in between the two to cease the dominant beating courtesy of the Frenchman.
Gane is all smiles as the crowd erupts in celebration of his triumph and the others from earlier, with French combatants tonight performing swimmingly – of the seven from this country against foreign opponents, six emerged victorious. The promotion is prepared for the end result, placing heavyweight contender Tom Aspinall in the crowd as the likely next test. If that fight comes together, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.

The Official Result
Ciryl Gane def. Sergey Spivak R2 3:44 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 26, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Serghei Spivac

Angelo picks Serghei Spivac, reasoning that Ciryl Gane has been taken down by the only two opponents who tried (Francis Ngannou and Jon Jones). He believes Spivak can get takedowns and win, though cardio is a concern. He has a half-unit bet at +145 and suggests waiting for better odds. He also mentions this could be a good live bet.

half unit at +145
"I do think Spivak can win I have a half a unit bet on him at plus 145"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 30, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Serghei Spivac

Big Brady picks Spivac, believing he can close distance, take Gane down, and dominate on the ground. He notes Gane's takedown defense as a weakness and Spivac's relentless wrestling, ground and pound, and submission threat. He predicts a first-round submission. However, he acknowledges that if Spivac cannot take Gane down, he will look bad on the feet.

Spivac wins by first-round submission
"I like speed vac to close distance get the fight down to the mat and dominate Cyril gone and finish him in the first round... give me a circus be back I'll take him to win by first round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 30, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Serghei Spivac

Cody sees Spivac as a live underdog at +140, citing Gane's poor takedown defense (45% in UFC) and Spivac's improving wrestling and grappling. He notes Spivac's recent takedown output (6 vs Lewis, 3 vs Sakai) and believes Gane is out of his element on the mat. Cody also mentions Spivac by submission at +800 as an intriguing prop, though he later corrects that the best available is +500.

Spivac by submission +500 (best available)
"I think we have a live Underdog here... Spivak at plus 140. I'm interested."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 31, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

Daniel Levi picks Ciryl Gane, arguing that Gane's only losses are to the two best heavyweights on earth (Jon Jones and Francis Ngannou) and that those losses are not indicative of his true level. He emphasizes Gane's athleticism, elusive movement, and striking volume, noting that Spivac's grappling style (more judo throws than traditional doubles) will be difficult to implement against Gane's footwork. Levi also points out that Spivac has historically folded when hit to the body, and he expects Gane to hurt him there and finish. He mentions that Gane's aggression on the mat has cost him before but believes he has learned from those mistakes.

Gane inside the distance; moneyline recommended because if the Jones fight never happened he'd be -270
"I think so Rogan's gonna win I think he's probably gonna hurt him uh to the body and then finish him"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Sep 2, 2023 (fight day)
Serghei Spivac

Lucrative James bet Spivac at +140 earlier in the week but has become less confident. He believes Gane has clear weaknesses on the ground, as shown against Francis Ngannou and Jon Jones. Spivac is one of the best top grapplers in the division and can break Gane down. He notes Gane mentally quit in the Ngannou fight after being taken down. He also bet under 2.5 rounds, expecting an early finish. He considers hedging with Gane by KO.

Under 2.5 rounds
"I bet him about Monday quite a while ago now... I am a little bit less confident than I once was."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Aug 31, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Serghei Spivac

I'm leaning with the grappler Spivac here. Gane has a tremendous striking advantage but his takedown defense and work off his back are major red flags. Spivac is on a three-fight winning streak and has been improving his takedown timing and top control. I expect Spivac to close the distance, get the fight to the ground, and eventually find a submission or TKO from top position. I like the plus money on Spivac and also like the prop 'fight doesn't go to decision'.

fight doesn't go to decision (minus 350/400), plus money on Spivac
"I'm gonna lean with the grappler you know it's hard for me to really get on the serial God train especially at chalk when he's going up against a legit Grappler until we see those legitimate improvements made in his …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Aug 30, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

Paul agrees Spivac is a live underdog but leans Gane due to the five-round nature of the fight. He argues Spivac's cardio is unproven and he may fade in later rounds, while Gane paces himself well and has good cardio. Paul also notes Spivac's chin is suspect and he struggles when forced to strike. He suggests a live bet on Gane if he loses early rounds, as he could come back late.

Live bet on Gane if he loses first round(s)
"I am going to bet thrill gone... the best way to approach this as a gone better would be the live BET."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 29, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

The MMA Guru picks Ciryl Gane by first or second-round TKO, arguing that Gane has had time to improve his grappling and that Spivac's takedowns come from the clinch, not single or double legs. He notes Spivac's poor stand-up and lack of big crowd experience, while Gane will have the Paris crowd behind him. He expects Gane to control distance with kicks and jabs, and Spivac will crumble.

"I'm going Cyril gone first or second round TKO that's what I'm gonna go with"
LOSS vs Jon Jones
Submission (guillotine choke) R1 2:04 · UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane · Mar 04, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jon Jones 0 5 of 10 50% 8 of 14 2 of 2 100% 1 0 0:57
Ciryl Gane 0 6 of 8 75% 7 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jon Jones 0 5 of 10 50% 8 of 14 2 of 2 100% 1 0 0:57
Ciryl Gane 0 6 of 8 75% 7 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jon Jones 5 of 10 50% 2 of 5 0 of 1 3 of 4 5 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ciryl Gane 6 of 8 75% 1 of 3 2 of 2 3 of 3 6 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jon Jones 5 of 10 50% 2 of 5 0 of 1 3 of 4 5 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ciryl Gane 6 of 8 75% 1 of 3 2 of 2 3 of 3 6 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
UFC Heavyweight Title Fight: Jon Jones vs. Ciryl Gane
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Jones (-155), Gane (+135)

Round 1
This one is for all the marbles. The heavyweight strap is officially on the line with the relinquishment of Francis Ngannou’s heavyweight crown and his subsequent release. The challengers for the vacant strap will be former light heavyweight king Jones (26-1, 1 NC; 20-1, 1 NC UFC), who is taking his first trip up to this division and weighed 248 pounds, against ex-interim champ Gane (11-1, 8-1 UFC). Surprising many, Gane checked in a half pound lighter than Jones. These big men have 25 minutes to work and establish themselves, and referee Marc Goddard will receive the final assignment of the night. After a touch of gloves and Gane patting Jones’ chest, it’s on. Jones comes out of his corner like usual, climbing upright, and the two throw at one another immediately. Jones fires a punch up top, and Gane responds with a low kick that slams into Jones’ cup and causes a pause in the first 10 seconds of the bout. Jones takes 30 seconds to clear it out, and they get back to action. Jones takes a low kick to stick the Frenchman with a right hand, and he walks Gane down firing at him. Jones sweeps low with a kick, and Gane replies with a similar blow. Jones walks through a jab and marches Gane down, pressuring the Frenchman and no-selling any strikes that land on him. Jones swings with a big body shot that misses the mark, and when Gane fires off a big right hand, Jones ducks under and trips Gane out to drop him to his knees and down. Gane fights back up to his knees, and Jones slips a hook in around the side while Gane works to his feet. Jones pulls Gane down, and he sits on Gane’s knees and suddenly grips with a guillotine choke that is crushing around Gane’s noggin. Jones lets go and resets his grip to slip his forearm under the chin, and he presses his full body weight on the submission to completely fasten the guillotine. Gane is shocked, his eyes wide open, and he frantically taps out before he goes out. Jones has done it! He is a two-division UFC champion, and he made it look easy against a phenomenal opponent. His status as one of the greatest if not the greatest of all time is fully cemented with this victory, which clocked in around two minutes as his quickest since he smashed Vladimir Matyushenko in 2010. After thanking his family and training partners, Jones has one name in mind: Stipe Miocic, for International Fight Week in July. We will absolutely be here should that materialize, and we hope you are too. What a night.

The Official Result
Jon Jones def. Ciryl Gane R1 2:04 via Submission (Guillotine Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

Angelo leans towards Ciryl Gane due to Jon Jones' three-year layoff, weight gain, and poor performance in his last fight. He notes that Gane is a technical striker with great footwork and that Jones struggled with wrestling against Dominick Reyes. Angelo is not betting on this fight.

"I think I have to pick zero gone here because of the layoff because of the unknowns because how shitty Jon Jones looked in his last fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Jon Jones

Big Brady picks Jon Jones but is hesitant due to many red flags: a three-year layoff, lackluster recent performances, and moving up to heavyweight. He notes Gane's takedown defense was exposed by Ngannou, and Jones is a great wrestler. He predicts a decision win for Jones, but advises against betting on the fight due to uncertainty.

by decision; no serious bets, maybe a parlay
"give me Jon Jones as far as a pick goes here... I'll take Jon Jones to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

Cody is very reluctant to take Jones at -160 given the three-year layoff, recent disinterested performances, and move up to heavyweight. He sees Gane as a legitimate heavyweight who fought Francis Ngannou closely, but worries about Gane's wrestling after Ngannou took him down. He ultimately takes the plus money on Gane but will wait for weigh-ins to see Jones's physique.

Will wait for weigh-ins before locking in; mentions live betting as a possibility
"ever so reluctantly is take the plus money here on Cyril gone but I am going to wait for weigh-ins to really see what's going on"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Mar 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jon Jones

Connor picks Jones but with significant hesitation. He believes Jones's forward pressure and consistent use of a few tools (lead hook, body kick, side kick) over five rounds will be enough to edge out Gane, despite Jones's decline in activity and wrestling. He expects a close, boring fight where Jones may get hurt but ultimately wins a decision or via a takedown from a Gane error. He notes Gane's poor defensive footwork and tendency to fall apart when pressured, but acknowledges Jones's own defensive flaws and the risk of Gane's jab and kicks.

Expects a close fight; mentions Jones opened at +140 and dropped to -165, but does not recommend a bet.
"I'm going to pick Jones to just have... I don't expect a better version of John Jones. I don't expect anything more than the late career John Jones we've seen. I just think that might still be enough."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

Jacob is confident in Ciryl Gane, stating that on the feet, Gane will embarrass Jones with his footwork and speed. He believes Jones will struggle to get takedowns because Gane will be ready for them. Jacob thinks Gane will pick Jones apart and win.

"on the feet cirrogon is going to embarrass Jon Jones he's going to look slow"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Jon Jones

Jones is a dominant wrestler with unorthodox striking and a championship mindset. Gane is a slick striker but has shown vulnerability to wrestling, as seen against Francis Ngannou. Jones will drag the fight to the ground and use his top pressure and ground and pound to win. The weight gain shouldn't be detrimental.

surprised by the odds (-155)
"I think Jon Jones will showcase as he said in the past that there are levels to the [ __ ] and I think that Jon Jones as long as packing on the muscle and weight... I think he wins …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jon Jones

Paul picks Jon Jones but says it's a stay away from a betting perspective. He believes Jones's wrestling will be the difference, as Gane was taken down by Ngannou. However, he acknowledges the many question marks around Jones and cannot bet him at -170. He thinks Jones will win but won't put money on it.

Stay away from betting; considers live betting after first few minutes
"Jon Jones is the pick to stay away from a betting perspective for me"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

The MMA Guru picks Ciryl Gane to upset Jon Jones, citing Jones' long layoff (over 3 years) and recent close fights. He believes Gane's range, leg kicks, and patience will trouble Jones, and that Jones' takedowns won't be as effective at heavyweight. He predicts a decision win for Gane.

"I'm going with Cyril gone to upset Jon Jones... I think he's gonna give Jones some problems."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Mar 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

Zane favors Gane, assuming the fight becomes a slow-paced kickboxing match where Gane's consistency, jab, and kicking variety give him the edge. He doubts Jones's wrestling will be effective due to poor entries and a clench that has deteriorated. He notes Gane's defensive flaws and potential unforced errors (like a bad takedown attempt) could cost him, but overall sees Gane as the more reliable striker at range.

"I favor Gane in this fight. My only real concern with picking him is maybe Jones has really worked on his wrestling."
WIN vs Tai Tuivasa
KO (punches) R3 4:23 · UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Tuivasa · Sep 03, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ciryl Gane 1 110 of 168 65% 110 of 168 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:01
Tai Tuivasa 1 29 of 89 32% 29 of 89 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ciryl Gane 0 16 of 31 51% 16 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tai Tuivasa 0 6 of 26 23% 6 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Ciryl Gane 0 41 of 65 63% 41 of 65 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Tai Tuivasa 1 15 of 40 37% 15 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
3 Ciryl Gane 1 53 of 72 73% 53 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Tai Tuivasa 0 8 of 23 34% 8 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ciryl Gane 110 of 168 65% 64 of 110 30 of 40 16 of 18 108 of 166 0 of 0 2 of 2
Tai Tuivasa 29 of 89 32% 17 of 61 4 of 9 8 of 19 26 of 84 1 of 3 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ciryl Gane 16 of 31 51% 5 of 16 3 of 5 8 of 10 16 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tai Tuivasa 6 of 26 23% 2 of 13 1 of 2 3 of 11 6 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Ciryl Gane 41 of 65 63% 24 of 43 11 of 16 6 of 6 41 of 65 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tai Tuivasa 15 of 40 37% 12 of 32 1 of 4 2 of 4 12 of 35 1 of 3 2 of 2
3 Ciryl Gane 53 of 72 73% 35 of 51 16 of 19 2 of 2 51 of 70 0 of 0 2 of 2
Tai Tuivasa 8 of 23 34% 3 of 16 2 of 3 3 of 4 8 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Ciryl Gane vs. Tai Tuivasa
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Gane (-540), Tuivasa (+420)

Round 1
Depending on how this headliner shakes out, a title shot may loom for one of the victors. While former interim beltholder Gane (10-1, 7-1 UFC) would certainly like another crack at Francis Ngannou, he first has to deal with the surging brawler Tuivasa (14-3, 8-3 UFC), who has won five straight fights by knockout. Gane will need to keep his wits about him, and referee Marc Goddard will too so that he avoids any possible errant blows from the two strikers. The fists are bumped, Gane pats Tuivasa in the face, the cage door is locked, and it’s time for the main event! Tuivasa ignores an early leg kick so that he can try to close the distance and solve the rangy puzzle that is the Frenchman, but he does not throw much. Tuivasa absorbs another low kick, and he fires one back, forcing Gane to awkwardly recoil his own leg. Gane jabs with his foot, and he sits down on a kick to the body with his other leg. Tuivasa stalks Gane down but cannot corner him, although he does get off another leg kick that he turns his hips into. Gane catches “Bam Bam” coming forward with a swatting right hook, disrupting the offense Tuivasa was able to release. Gane comfortably pokes and jabs, and the crowd serenades him with the French National Anthem. Tuivasa starts laughing, and Gane appreciates it and ducks a massive haymaker. A leg kick from the Aussie gets checked, and he swings heavily to close in. Gane blocks most of the strikes, taking one flush, and otherwise keeping his preferred range. The crowd chants loudly for their fighter, and Tuivasa is unable to do much to deflate the crowd. Gane slips a leg kick and releases a body kick. Tuivasa responds, and he just misses an overhand right by a whisker. Gane sticks out a jab and goes after a head kick, and the kick slams into Tuivasa’s guard…he feels it. Tuivasa hand-fights to get in on Gane, and Gane is elusive as he snaps out a front kick. The Aussie lunges with two punches, and Gane skirts out the side and lightly taps his foe’s calf with a kick. The horn sounds to end this sparring match of a round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gane
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Gane
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Gane

Round 2
The heavyweight headliners touch ‘em up to start the second round, and Tuivasa slaps the thigh with a kick. Gane responds with one to the inner thigh, and he snaps out a jab. As Tuivasa looks to weave forward, Gane splits the guard with another jab, shutting down the offense before it comes. Tuivasa trips his man up as he comes forward, but it is simply that their legs are tangled. “Bam Bam” advances and wings a right hand, and it glances off the dome as Gane moves away from it. Gane front kicks his man and flicks out a jab, with a low but consistent pace that frustrates the brawler. The crowd grows restless as the approach of these two big men, and Tuivasa absorbs their energy by releasing a right hand that slams into Gane’s face. Gane smiles, and the two high-five after the exchange. Gane scores a low kick and a pair of jabs, and Tuivasa follows him along only to walk into a straight left hand. Tuivasa leans back when a high kick is unloaded, and he cuts Gane off with three short left hooks. Gane pushes through the guard with a jab and shoots in for a takedown, but the Aussie is a brick wall and shoves him back. Tuivasa is extremely mad by the exchange, and he winds up with a monster right hand that sends Gane crashing to the mat. Gane crawls to the side, and Tuivasa looks to hop on the side and pound him out. Gane survives and manages to back off, and Tuivasa gives chase and gets clipped with a right hand. Gane targets the body with impunity, kicking the body several times until Tuivasa bends over. Tuivasa is hurt but still dangerous, as swings with all his might, and he manages to crack Gane again. When Gane retreats, he jabs out to the body, and Tuivasa is hurt once more. The crowd is going wild as these two keep hurting one another, and Tuivasa blasts Gane with another overhand right. Gane blinks it out and works the body even more, and Tuivasa signals to the crowd to give it up for them. They do, and the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Tuivasa
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Gane
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Gane

Round 3
They touch fists to start off the third round, having spent the last minute recovering and retooling their gameplans. Tuivasa actively attacks the lead leg, and Gane strings together a few punches on Tuivasa’s iron chin. Tuivasa chops at the leg, and Gane kicks the body and may have grazed the cup. Tuivasa complains, but Goddard tells them to keep working, and Tuivasa grabs his cup and shakes it. They resume combat, and Gane measures his man with sharp front kicks as Tuivasa takes a deep breath. Gane loads up on a liver kick, and Tuivasa just watches it land. “Bam Bam” ducks in for a punch to the body, and Gane sticks out several jabs. Tuivasa turns to his side as he misses with a kick, and he sprints back to the fence and bounces off it like a professional wrestler. Gane high-fives him, and he then kicks Tuivasa in the face. Tuivasa eats it like Vegemite on toast and immediately absorbs one more, and he wobbles back. He might be playing possum, as he leans back and winds up an enormous right hand that buzzes Gane’s dome. The Frenchman kicks him two more times right in the head, and Tuivasa is stunned but still swinging everything he has in hopes of catching Gane. Gane keeps tagging Tuivasa with his rangy blows, and Tuivasa shakes his head every so often and loads up on what Quinton Jackson would call “bungalows.” Gane largely avoids them, but he still cannot quite evade every one. Tuivasa marches forward, and Gane smacks him in the face with a standing back fist. As Tuivasa slows, Gane feed his man a steady diet of front kicks to the body, and Tuivasa bends over again in pain but is still on his feet. Gane knows that Tuivasa is fading, and he lets loose with a right hook square on the chin that puts Tuivasa on ice skates.
The Aussie is tough but his consciousness is fading, and Gane unloads a bombardment of five vicious punches including an arcing hammerfist that send Tuivasa crashing down to the canvas. Goddard is about to step in, so “Bon Gamin” makes sure he does by hammering Tuivasa with two devastating punches, putting a cap on a sensational performance after a spectacular fight.
The Accor Arena, which might have already set decibel records in the city tonight, shatters those with raucous cheers and applause for its home country fighter. France ends the night at 5-0 against foreign opponents, with each one making a statement, but none more massive than Gane. The French fighter celebrates with his family, who flood the cage in support of the victor. The triumphant Gane only one has target: the title, which currently sits around the waist of former opponent Francis Ngannou. Even though Ngannou is in the building, he does not enter the cage, as he may not want to take away from Gane’s moment. The crowd is in the palm of Gane’s large hand, and the UFC should know once and for all it has a star on its hands. Next week, the UFC is going to try to cash in on a pair of other stars, and we will be here for it with UFC 279. We hope you are too. Vive la France!

The Official Result
Ciryl Gane def. Tai Tuivasa R3 4:23 via KO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 27, 2022 (7 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

Angelo picks Ciryl Gane because of his technical striking, footwork, and ability to work in takedowns against powerful strikers. He expects Gane to make Tuivasa swing at air and likely win a one-sided clinic. He notes Tuivasa is always live for a knockout but Gane won't be there to hit. No prop bets because lines are too short.

No prop bets; lines too short (take down -700, significant strike -600)
"cyril gone is absolutely the pick here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

Big Brady picks Ciryl Gane to win by submission in the fourth round. He notes that Gane is better in every aspect except pure power, and that Tuivasa's best chance is in the first round and a half. He expects Gane to survive the early storm, then take over with takedowns and ground control, eventually submitting a tired Tuivasa. He mentions that Gane may also finish by ground and pound or body shots.

submission in the fourth round
"i like gone to win i'll say by submission in the fourth round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

Cody picks Ciryl Gane, emphasizing Gane's superior footwork, lateral movement, and ability to avoid big shots. He notes that Gane has faced heavy hitters like Derrick Lewis and Francis Ngannou without taking significant damage, and that Tai Tuivasa's leg kicks may slow Gane's movement but Gane will counter with his jab. Cody also highlights Gane's durability and the fact that Tuivasa has never fought five rounds, predicting a late finish by Gane in round 4 or 5. He mentions that the best value is the over 2.5 rounds at -130, as both fighters are cautious early.

Over 2.5 rounds (-130); Gane wins in round 4 (+1200) or round 5 (+1700)
"I'm picking gone... I think gone probably finishes them off in either round four or round five."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

Daniel Levi picks Ciryl Gane to win, acknowledging he should be the rightful favorite due to size, athleticism, and potential grappling advantage. He notes Gane's unorthodox leg locks and range striking as key factors, but is wary of laying the -600 price. He mentions Tai Tuivasa's puncher's chance and power, but ultimately sides with Gane. He suggests Gane by submission as a prop, but does not bet the moneyline himself.

Gane by submission; Tuivasa by KO at +500; fight doesn't go to decision; over 1.5 rounds
"I think he's minus 600 for a reason even if I'm not gonna lay that price"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

The host is very confident in Gane, believing his movement, footwork, and range control will neutralize Tuivasa's power. He expects Gane to potentially take the fight to the ground and look for a submission. He suggests a sprinkle on Gane by submission at plus 420, predicting a second-round finish.

Gane by submission (plus 420), Gane by submission round 2
"Give me Cyril Gane by submission second round."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

Paul picks Ciryl Gane, agreeing with Cody that Gane's durability and ability to pick Tuivasa apart at range are key. He hates the -600 price but believes Gane will avoid a brawl and win. Paul also notes that Tuivasa's only path is a knockout, but Gane's movement and reach should neutralize that threat.

"Gone is my pick hate minus 600 in literally any heavyweight fight but durability is on point... should be able to just pick Tuivasa apart at range and avoid the big shots."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 29, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

The MMA Guru picks Ciryl Gane over Tai Tuivasa, citing Gane's significant reach advantage (8 inches) and his light footwork. He acknowledges Tuivasa's power and the 'Samoan bone density' factor but believes Gane's chin is underrated, as he absorbed shots from Derrick Lewis and Francis Ngannou. He predicts Gane will pick Tuivasa apart at range with jabs, teeps, and leg kicks, then finish him in the fourth round with elbows or knees. He notes that Gane is still improving and had eight months off to train.

Gane wins by TKO in round 4
"i think he's just gonna pick a tyre win the range game swollen swell up the eye of tyre with a jab bust up his nose with a jab"
LOSS vs Francis Ngannou
Decision (unanimous) (48–47, 48–47, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC 270: Ngannou vs. Gane · Jan 22, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Francis Ngannou 0 43 of 104 41% 71 of 139 4 of 5 80% 0 1 8:29
Ciryl Gane 0 63 of 91 69% 79 of 107 1 of 3 33% 3 0 2:51
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Francis Ngannou 0 12 of 31 38% 14 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:40
Ciryl Gane 0 15 of 20 75% 24 of 29 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:05
2 Francis Ngannou 0 10 of 27 37% 10 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
Ciryl Gane 0 19 of 33 57% 19 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Francis Ngannou 0 9 of 20 45% 19 of 30 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:55
Ciryl Gane 0 6 of 9 66% 11 of 14 0 of 0 --- 1 0 1:07
4 Francis Ngannou 0 7 of 13 53% 15 of 25 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:57
Ciryl Gane 0 16 of 17 94% 18 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Francis Ngannou 0 5 of 13 38% 13 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 1 2:44
Ciryl Gane 0 7 of 12 58% 7 of 12 1 of 1 100% 2 0 0:39
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Francis Ngannou 43 of 104 41% 9 of 56 21 of 33 13 of 15 34 of 87 6 of 10 3 of 7
Ciryl Gane 63 of 91 69% 15 of 32 20 of 29 28 of 30 57 of 84 6 of 7 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Francis Ngannou 12 of 31 38% 3 of 18 8 of 11 1 of 2 8 of 24 4 of 7 0 of 0
Ciryl Gane 15 of 20 75% 4 of 7 9 of 11 2 of 2 10 of 14 5 of 6 0 of 0
2 Francis Ngannou 10 of 27 37% 1 of 11 4 of 10 5 of 6 9 of 26 1 of 1 0 of 0
Ciryl Gane 19 of 33 57% 4 of 11 4 of 10 11 of 12 19 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Francis Ngannou 9 of 20 45% 3 of 13 5 of 6 1 of 1 6 of 13 1 of 2 2 of 5
Ciryl Gane 6 of 9 66% 2 of 4 1 of 2 3 of 3 5 of 8 1 of 1 0 of 0
4 Francis Ngannou 7 of 13 53% 0 of 6 4 of 4 3 of 3 6 of 12 0 of 0 1 of 1
Ciryl Gane 16 of 17 94% 2 of 3 3 of 3 11 of 11 16 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Francis Ngannou 5 of 13 38% 2 of 8 0 of 2 3 of 3 5 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 1
Ciryl Gane 7 of 12 58% 3 of 7 3 of 3 1 of 2 7 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
UFC Heavyweight Title Fight: Francis Ngannou vs. Ciryl Gane

Round 1
Former teammates collide in the UFC 270 main event, which comes in the form of a heavyweight championship unification battle. Ngannou (16-3, 11-2 UFC) will come in on a five-fight knockout streak that includes victories over three of the last five champions to hold the heavyweight strap before him, while Gane (10-0, 7-0 UFC) is a spotless 10 up and none down as he continues his quest for the undisputed belt. A bit of bad blood infiltrated the matchup due to a dispute about old sparring footage, but they still do elect to touch gloves as a prepared referee Herb Dean stands firm as the Octagon sentinel. Ngannou takes the center of the cage and starts to pressure Gane, only for Gane to rush in and pursue a takedown that gets stopped. The close range of Gane allows him to avoid the power shots, but when Ngannou gets backed up across the cage to the wall, he gets off a high knee. Gane pushes off and retreats, keeping a safe distance and kicking and Ngannou’s lead knee – both of the champ’s knees have braces on them. Ngannou closes in with a big punch, and he blocks a rising knee from Gane as they are tied up in the center of the cage. Gane gets some space with a short elbow, but Ngannou walks him down and delivers a painful uppercut up the middle that stuns Gane for a moment. Gane regains his composure and backs off, but he gets clipped with an uppercut, Gane escapes out the edge and evades most of the power punches that come his way, and he spins with a kick to the body. Ngannou walks him down, but Gane is light on his feet and staying away. Gane steps in suddenly with a knee before breaking away to get into a safe range, and he does so just when Ngannou loads up on a right hand. “The Predator” stalks his prey, only to come up short with a looping right hand. Ngannou kicks the knee and comes up high, and Gane pushes it off and ends in grappling range with the champ. Ngannou flirts with a takedown effort, but he abandons the try to knee Gane in the chest. “Bon Gamin” turns him about on the wall, staying tightly pressed to Ngannou so as to not absorb any short but powerful shots. Gane clings to his opponent, stifling Ngannou for a moment, but Ngannou still manages to land a knee and an uppercut as Gane pushes off. Ngannou marches ahead, and they stare down one another as the round comes to an end.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ngannou
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Gane
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ngannou

Round 2
The heavyweights touch gloves to start off the second frame, and Gane leads off with a front kick that splits the guard. Ngannou mimics the blow with one of his own, and it gets swatted away. Ngannou is continually advancing as Gane is light on his feet with his hands low, so Ngannou kicks him in the thigh a few times with the ball of his foot. Gane then turns to side kick Ngannou in the knee, and darts away before Ngannou can get in on him. This does not stop Ngannou from trying, and when he misses, Gane chips away at his lead leg from a distance. Ngannou lifts up a high kick, and he then goes low with a stomping kick to the knee. Gane sticks out a jab, and his mobility keeps him away from the swinging shots that come at him. Ngannou eats a clean right hand that glances off the side of his ear, and he appears no worse for wear as he plods forward. Ngannou swings with a huge right hand, and the power is there but the accuracy is not, so Gane ducks it without concern. The punch leads Ngannou to tie him up, and he breaks off and misses by an inch with an overhand right. Gane picks and pokes Ngannou with low kicks before spinning with a wheel kick that clocks Ngannou in the top of the head. “The Predator” barely registers that the strike landed, and he continues to march ahead to line up a missile of a right hand. Ngannou kicks at the leg, and he absorbs one that comes back at him and makes him lift his leg up. Gane is loose and has his hands very low given the opponent staring across from him, and he relies on his movement to not let Ngannou get a hold of him. Ngannou sits down on a body kick, one that sneaks under Gane’s blocking elbow. Gane bounces around as Ngannou slowly aims for a big strike, and he walks face-first into a powerful uppercut that knocks Gane back but does not hurt him. The Frenchman gathers himself and delivers a kick on the outside of Ngannou’s leg, and then goes with the other leg to the midsection. Ngannou checks one more kick as the round comes to an end, and the crowd is not overly thrilled with the pace of these two big men.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gane
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Gane
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Gane

Round 3
The big gentlemen meet in the middle, only for Gane to give ground immediately and back off. Gane keeps his hand up and his fingers outstretched in hopes that he can anticipate a power strike from Ngannou and block it. Ngannou secures a short uppercut on the chin, but whiffs badly on the power left hand. Gane sees another powerful left hand come at him, and he darts away and kicks Ngannou in the side. “The Predator” is enraged by this kick, and he lifts a 250-pound Gane up in the air like a sack of potatoes and slams him down to the mat with emphasis. Ngannou lands in side control, and he is heavily positioned on top and does not let Gane twist and turn. Gane ends up surrendering mount as he tries to scramble, and he turns over to give up his back in the process. Ngannou starts dropping down a few sledgehammers in the form of his ground-and-pound, and when Gane walks his way to his knees, Ngannou trips him back down. Gane is able to defend his face from punishment, standing up safely and getting up against the wall. Ngannou deftly throws Gane down to the mat, face-first, in what appears to be a painful slam. “Bon Gamin” does not seem concerned, calmly working his way up to his feet. As Gane is composed in the clinch, he smoothly breaks the grip and spins around to elbow Ngannou in the face. Ngannou eats the Frenchman’s spinning elbow like a baguette, and he continues to lumber forward and narrowly evades a spinning wheel kick that grazes his hair. Ngannou pursues his man and loads up on a punch to the body, only to change levels and hit a double-leg takedown and ground the interim titleholder. Gane tries to defend off his back with a kimura, but there is nothing there. The champ rides out the round on top without landing strikes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ngannou
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Ngannou
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ngannou

Round 4
Ngannou stands right in the center of the cage to begin the fourth round, and he lifts his leg up to check a kick that comes at him. “Bon Gamin” gets off a jab and scampers away from the power strikes that are telegraphed and not coming at him as frequently. The pitter-patter leg kicks and jabs from Gane frustrate Ngannou but do not appear to have an appreciable effect, and the crowd lets the two have it. Ngannou continues to ignore leg kicks, and he absorbs a clean side kick to the body while missing on the right hand counter. Gane gets interrupted on the way in with a low kick, so he replies with a slapping kick to Ngannou’s face. Ngannou does not appear thrilled by the kick, leading him to blitz forward and set up a body lock. “The Predator” succeeds on a toss to plant Gane on the mat again, and Gane is effective at protecting his mug from damage although he does give up control time. Gane works his way up to his knee and stand, but Ngannou trips him back down in a sneaky mat return. The Frenchman maneuvers his way up, and he pursues a standing kimura when Ngannou wrenches his legs out beneath him and puts Gane down again. Ngannou steps over to mount, and he loses it when Gane nearly sits up and out of it. Gane finds himself on his back, with a 260-ish pound Ngannou on top of him relying more on pressure than ground strikes. Gane sits up against the fence, and Ngannou knees him square in the chest in a very risky maneuver. Gane is struggling to stand as Ngannou is tightly pinned to him, and the champion holds him down to end the fourth frame.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ngannou
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Ngannou
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ngannou

Round 5
The champ and interim champ meet in the middle for one final touch of gloves. Gane backs away, and he steps in with a cheeky elbow that catches Ngannou clean. Gane lands a punch that makes Ngannou backpedal for a moment, and Gane stands right in front of him and kicks him in the leg and punches him in the body. Gane rushes ahead with a short combination, and Ngannou chows down on it like a steak. When Ngannou swings with a big punch, Gane ducks down and hits a takedown to plant the champion flat on his back. Ngannou looks to sit up, but he miraculously hits a sweep and turns Gane over to put him on his back. Gane defends effectively by dropping down with a heel hook, and Ngannou grimaces but grits it out to not allow Gane to sit up and get on top. Ngannou pops his leg out, and Gane goes for another that is not under the knee, so it is not as dangerous as the first. Like a snake, “The Predator” slithers over to re-take top control, sliding up to half guard and nearly claiming mount. Ngannou begins to set up an arm-triangle choke, but he does not present any other offense as Dean tells them to keep working. Gane sits up, allowing Ngannou to defend with a potential guillotine choke to sit him back down. The Frenchman keeps moving off his back, scooting his way towards the wall, and Ngannou pushes him back over as precious seconds tick off the clock. Gane is furious that he is being held down, and Ngannou finally lets a few punches go to end the fight on top. Some may be surprised that this fight went the distance, but
many
would be surprised that it was Ngannou that leaned on wrestling and effectively controlled Gane for long stretches of the fight. The bout in the books after 25 grueling minutes, the two men embrace and appear to have squashed the potentially manufactured beef. When Buffer announces the winner, it is not UFC President Dana White but matchmaker Mick Maynard that is in the cage to place the belt around the winner’s waist.
In his post-fight interview, Ngannou tells the crowd that he went through a great deal in this training camp, and three weeks ago, he completely tore his MCL tendon and hurt his ACL as well. Ngannou expresses his love for his home country and the fans, and tells the crowd that boxing is always in his back pocket but not an immediate goal for him. With that, UFC 270 is in the books, and the organization is taking a week off. When it comes back with UFC Fight Night 200 in February, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ngannou (49-46 Ngannou)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Ngannou (48-47 Ngannou)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ngannou (49-46 Ngannou)

The Official Result
Francis Ngannou def. Ciryl Gane via Unanimous Decision (48-47, 48-47, 49-46)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jan 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

Angelo picks Ciryl Gane primarily due to contract negotiation factors, believing Ngannou may have motivation issues. He acknowledges Ngannou is the better fighter with power and takedown defense, but thinks Gane's only path is a decision. He notes the sparring footage where Gane's strikes didn't bother Ngannou.

contract negotiation factors
"i'm going to go with cyril gone because of the contract factors but the reality is francis ingano is more dangerous and i think francis inganu is the better fighter but the contract negotiation that stuff is very real and …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jan 18, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

Big Brady picks Ciryl Gane to win by decision, citing Gane's superior cardio, output, footwork, fight IQ, and defensive soundness. He acknowledges Ngannou's devastating power and the threat of a one-punch knockout, comparing it to the Derrick Lewis fight. He expects Gane to fight smart, stay at range, and avoid danger, similar to his performance against Rozenstruik. He notes that Ngannou has never won a fight past the second round and has never been knocked out, but believes Gane has more paths to victory.

Gane by decision; mentions Ngannou's power and that the line should be closer; compares to Rozenstruik fight
"I'm going to take gone to win by decision maybe a late finish but nganu 19 fights never been knocked out and gano's durability is phenomenal"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 19, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

Cody picks Ciryl Gane, emphasizing Gane's superior technique, footwork, cardio, and activity rate compared to Ngannou. He notes that Ngannou, despite his power, is 35 and fights infrequently, while Gane has gone five rounds and shown precision. Cody believes Gane's risk-averse style will allow him to avoid damage and tire Ngannou out in deeper waters. He also mentions the narrative that Ngannou may be distracted by contract disputes and a potential boxing career.

"I gotta go with the speed, the precision, and just the better all-around skill set, so sign me up for Ciryl Gane."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jan 20, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Francis Ngannou

Daniel Levi picks Francis Ngannou to win by knockout. He argues that Ngannou's power is generational and that Ciryl Gane has not faced anyone who can put him on the back foot. Levi notes that Gane drops his hands off kicks and leaves his chin exposed, and believes Ngannou's improved wrestling and fight IQ under Eric Nicksick will be key. He acknowledges Gane's elite movement but thinks Ngannou's power is a different level. Levi also mentions that Ngannou is in a great mental space and that the underdog price is too good to pass up.

Ngannou by KO; underdog price +132 is value
"you give me a line like that on francis and i'm taking my chances so uh yeah i'm gonna go with francis and ganu to knock out the very elusive and talented uh cyril god"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 18, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

The host believes Ciryl Gane's mastery of range management and ability to avoid significant strikes will be key. He notes that Gane has passed the 'heavyweight power punching gauntlet' against Jairzinho Rozenstruik, Derrick Lewis, and now faces Ngannou. He expects Gane to use his southpaw stance, body work, and fight IQ to weather the early storm and finish Ngannou in the later rounds, possibly round 4 or 5. He also mentions that Ngannou's cardio is a concern and that Gane is the type of fighter who can exploit that.

Gane round 4 (+1500), Gane round 5 (+2500), live betting on Gane as rounds progress
"i think if there's anybody that's going to be francis it's going to be sirigon sir gone and you i'm going to take him to win this fight around via round you know what let's call round five round five …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 19, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Francis Ngannou

Paul picks Francis Ngannou, arguing that Ngannou's power and speed combination gives him at least a 50-50 chance to knock out anyone. He acknowledges Gane's technical advantages and the big cage, but believes Ngannou's power carries into later rounds. Paul also mentions the narrative that Ngannou is motivated to prove himself and secure a better contract. He notes that Ngannou by KO is available at +175 and considers that a play.

Francis Ngannou by knockout +175 at DraftKings
"I'm of the opinion that Francis Ngannou against any person on earth when Francis Ngannou is wearing four ounce gloves has at least a 50-50 shot to knock them out."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

The MMA Guru picks Ciryl Gane, calling him a future heavyweight GOAT. He praises Gane's technical striking, including oblique kicks, jabs, and leg kicks, which he believes will neutralize Ngannou's power. He notes Ngannou's distractions (contract disputes, movie appearances) and predicts a fourth-round TKO, as Gane's versatility and range management will be too much.

fourth round tko
"i'm trusting in cyril ghan i've never seen a heavyweight move like this i think he's going to be the goat"
WIN vs Derrick Lewis
TKO (punches) R3 4:11 · UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane · Aug 07, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ciryl Gane 0 16 of 37 43% 16 of 37 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:08
Derrick Lewis 0 98 of 122 80% 112 of 136 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:21
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ciryl Gane 0 3 of 11 27% 3 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Derrick Lewis 0 26 of 35 74% 26 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Ciryl Gane 0 5 of 10 50% 5 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Derrick Lewis 0 23 of 29 79% 35 of 41 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:58
3 Ciryl Gane 0 8 of 16 50% 8 of 16 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:03
Derrick Lewis 0 49 of 58 84% 51 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:23
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ciryl Gane 16 of 37 43% 8 of 24 6 of 11 2 of 2 15 of 36 1 of 1 0 of 0
Derrick Lewis 98 of 122 80% 50 of 69 16 of 21 32 of 32 67 of 89 16 of 17 15 of 16
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ciryl Gane 3 of 11 27% 0 of 5 3 of 6 0 of 0 3 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Derrick Lewis 26 of 35 74% 7 of 12 4 of 8 15 of 15 26 of 35 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Ciryl Gane 5 of 10 50% 2 of 7 1 of 1 2 of 2 5 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Derrick Lewis 23 of 29 79% 6 of 11 7 of 8 10 of 10 17 of 23 6 of 6 0 of 0
3 Ciryl Gane 8 of 16 50% 6 of 12 2 of 4 0 of 0 7 of 15 1 of 1 0 of 0
Derrick Lewis 49 of 58 84% 37 of 46 5 of 5 7 of 7 24 of 31 10 of 11 15 of 16
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
UFC Interim Heavyweight Title Fight: Derrick Lewis vs. Ciryl Gane

Round 1
At long last, we have reached our main event. Lewis (25-7, 1 NC; 16-5 UFC), in front of a home crowd, will vie for the interim heavyweight strap against unbeaten Frenchman Gane (9-0, 6-0 UFC). No matter one’s thoughts on whether this bout should have a belt on the line, or how the promotion is handling champ Francis Ngannou, this should be a very interesting matchup where one wrong move spells the end of the night. The fighters do touch gloves to set the stage for the big fight, and referee Dan Miragliotta draws the final assignment of the evening and braces himself for impact. The crowd is practically exploding as they chant “USA” that shakes the rafters of the Toyota Center. The heavyweights are tense as they measure the other up, with the only strikes a few low kicks from Gane. Lewis fires off a sudden head kick and falls to his back, and Gane pounces but Lewis is up before anything comes of it. Lewis eats a jab and backs off, where he kicks Gane in the side. Gane stomp kicks his foe’s knee as he feints and fakes his way in, lunging out with a jab and another kick to the knee. Gane slaps at his foe’s leg with a few kicks, and Lewis stands in front of him just staring. Lewis comes forward and pushes away a front kick that comes his direction as Gane tries to keep him at bay, and he draws a reaction out of Gane and makes Gane run away across the fence. The Frenchman gets back to the center of the cage and peppers his opponent with push kicks and jabs. Gane sits down on a leg kick, and another follows as Lewis cocks back his right hand. Gane continues to work the knee as Lewis is stuck playing the waiting game, with a body shot that comes as Gane plods forward. A sweeping body kick from Lewis comes up and clanks off the cup, and Gane grimaces as we have our first called foul of the night. Gane signals he is ready after 30 seconds, and Lewis offers an apology of a glove touch. Lewis has his thigh kicked as he tries to work his way in, and Gane catches him with a swift left hand and avoids a strike from “The Black Beast.” Gane slings up a high kick, and his speed is the difference as Lewis charges at him like a rampaging bull. Gane turns tail and runs away, and the crowd erupts in laughter. Gane gathers himself and calms himself down to kick Lewis with a series of body kicks, and Lewis comes up high with a kick that glances off the shoulder. Gane connects with a jab and a right hand that hurts Lewis, and they both wind up with big shots and might have poked the other the eye. Miragliotta tells them to fight on, and Lewis protests as the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gane
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Gane
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Gane

Round 2
The heavyweights touch gloves as Gane may have been the recipient of an eye poke in the last round, while Lewis took a punch to the eye socket. He wipes his eye out, and he strides out ready for battle. Lewis slings a jumping switch kick, and when he misses, he sits down on a leg kick that makes Gane change stances. Gane reaches out with a knee as Lewis comes at him, and Lewis sits back while Gane keeps changing stances back and forth – the kick may have done more damage than it looked. Lewis extends his arm and may have poked Gane again, but when it is not called, he crashes forward and tries to pursue a sudden takedown. Gane pushes him away, and when they break, Lewis comes up high with a kick that is blocked. Gane kicks the body, and Lewis counters with a flying knee that bounces off the torso. Gane swings with a low kick, and he jumps forward with a knee to the breadbasket as they clinch up. Gane holds tight and knees Lewis in the thigh repeatedly, and Lewis can do nothing but absorb them one after the other to both legs. The crowd grows restless, and Gane shoves his opponent over but Lewis stays upright by grabbing the top of the cage. Lewis eats a left hand so that he can jump forward with a looping right hook, and it brunches off the target as Gane does not appear concerned. The Frenchman chops at his foe’s lead leg, and he suddenly advances with a straight right hand until they clinch up. Gane holds tight and knees “The Black Beast” in the body, and he clips Gane with a right hand. Gane is ready with an overhand right, and Lewis rolls with it but ate it well. Lewis tries to jump in to attack, but Gane is too elusive and dodges another jumping switch kick. Gane comes up short with a head kick, and the second frame comes to a close.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gane
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Gane
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Gane

Round 3
The heavyweights touch gloves, and Lewis begins the round throwing first with a front kick. Gane ignores it and lands a leg kick, and another one nearly buckles Lewis’ leg. Gane goes after the same spot again, and the sound of these blows are significant as Gane turns his hips into them. Gane avoids a right hand, and he pushes his hand out and then chops down the leg of “The Black Beast.” Gane keeps hacking at that leg, and Lewis is not checking or moving with them. Lewis plays chase, but all he can do is walk into battering leg kicks. Lewis tries to close in, but he gets too close and initiates a brief clinch. When they break free, Lewis throws a head kick that is easily blocked. Lewis bails on a body kick halfway through, realizing that Gane is well out of the way. Gane just misses with a step-in elbow, and Lewis tries to trip his man down but Gane grabs the fence to stay upright. Gane keeps his balance, and he gets well out of the way when Lewis throws with bad intentions. Gane smashes Lewis with a leg kick, and Lewis falls back against the fence in clear trouble. Gane attacks with everything he has, laying into his adversary with punches and knees. Lewis does not play possum and is in big trouble, as Gane continues to clobber him with punches and knees. In a flurry, Gane makes Lewis turtle up leaning on the wire, and Lewis spits out his mouthpiece. In a brief break after Lewis gets tagged a few more times but survives, Miragliotta pauses the action to replace his mouthpiece. Although Lewis tries to lob a few desperation bombs, Gane strikes again with another kick and a few punches, and Lewis crumbles to his knees. Lewis protects his face as the onslaught continues, with the Frenchman pounding away while Miragliotta asks Lewis to defend himself. Gane shells his fallen opponent with hammerfists until Miragliotta intervenes, and Gane is now the interim heavyweight champion. Nothing but class, Gane gives love to Lewis and Lewis’ home crowd, his team and everyone that helped him along the way. When asked about his future matchup against former training partner and current champion Francis Ngannou, Gane has a simple message: “Let’s go.” Fight fans and media will get a week off from the UFC next week, although PFL and Bellator will be on tap. When it comes to the next UFC event, the show will be an ESPN offering with an interesting middleweight rumble in the main event. We will be here for it, and we hope you are too.

The Official Result
Ciryl Gane def. Derrick Lewis R3 4:11 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2021 (fight day)
Ciryl Gane

Angelo picks Gane, citing his superior footwork and technical striking. He believes Gane will dance around, land many strikes, and mix in grappling to avoid Lewis's power. He notes that Lewis only needs one punch but that Gane's movement and fight IQ should prevail. He also mentions he has Gane in his DraftKings lineup.

Derek Lewis wins inside the distance (decision no action) - all hosts have that bet
"I think he's just 10 times the fighter that Derek Lewis is... I think he's gonna dance around, land 200 million strikes, probably mix in some grappling as well to avoid those big punches."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 3, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

Big Brady thinks Gane is the much better fighter with dominant striking stats and excellent range management. He expects Gane to stay on the outside and avoid Lewis's power, possibly finishing late. He predicts a fourth-round KO for Gane, but acknowledges Lewis always has a puncher's chance. He calls Gane the biggest favorite on the card for good reason.

fourth round knockout
"I'll say fourth round ko for Cyril Gane."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 4, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

Cody believes Gane will win, using his jab, body kicks, and distance management to outpoint Lewis. He notes Lewis's power but thinks Gane can avoid it and potentially finish via submission or TKO. Cody likes the under 4.5 rounds as a parlay piece and mentions Gane by submission as a value prop.

under 4.5 rounds -185, Gane by submission +450
"i got gone winning um i think the under four and a half rounds minus 185 that's how i would attack this i think that's a pretty solid parlay piece"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Aug 6, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Ciryl Gane

Daniel Levi picks Ciryl Gane to win the minutes of the fight, citing Gane's technical striking, distance management, and overall skill advantage. However, he is very worried about Derrick Lewis's one-punch knockout power, especially in Houston where Lewis is undefeated. He notes that Gane is still developing and could get caught, but believes Gane is the better fighter and should win if he avoids the big shot. He does not lay the price confidently.

Worried about Lewis's KO power; says 'I'll pick Gane but not confidently'
"I'll pick Gane but not confidently"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 5, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

Gane has superior cardio and technical striking. Lewis is dangerous early but fades. Gane can work the body, use kicks, and avoid Lewis's power shots. When Lewis blitzes and fails, Gane can capitalize. Gane may also look for takedowns to dominate. The finish likely comes in the third or fourth round via body shot or TKO. The under 4.5 rounds is a strong play.

under 4.5 rounds -180; Gane by KO/TKO round 3 or 4; Gane inside the distance +110
"I think that this is god's fight from the beginning to the end and I think the end will probably come in the third or fourth round."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 4, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

Paul agrees with Cody that Gane will win, citing Gane's superior distance management, jab, and body kicks. He notes that Derrick Lewis has a puncher's chance but Gane's precision and ring IQ should prevail. Paul expects Gane to win by TKO inside the distance, likely under 4.5 rounds.

under 4.5 rounds -185, Gane by TKO
"i agree with pretty much every point you made i think that gone's gonna get the victory i think god gets the job done you mentioned maybe by submission i'm thinking more of the tko but i think it happens …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 1, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

The MMA Guru picks Ciryl Gane to win by fourth-round body shot TKO. He praises Gane's footwork, distance management, jab, and front kick. He believes Gane's technical striking will outclass Lewis, who relies on power. He notes Lewis' chin but doubts he can land cleanly on Gane. He predicts Gane will break Lewis down and finish with a teep to the stomach.

fourth round tko body shot finish
"i'm gonna go cyril gone here by fourth round teep to the stomach body shot tko"
Jairzinho Rozenstruik - Fight History
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Imavov · Feb 01, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Sergei Pavlovich 0 25 of 60 41% 145 of 208 2 of 2 100% 0 0 6:17
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 0 17 of 55 30% 23 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Sergei Pavlovich 0 11 of 23 47% 32 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:09
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 0 7 of 15 46% 9 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Sergei Pavlovich 0 3 of 19 15% 39 of 64 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:19
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 0 6 of 17 35% 8 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Sergei Pavlovich 0 11 of 18 61% 74 of 93 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:49
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 0 4 of 23 17% 6 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Sergei Pavlovich 25 of 60 41% 21 of 55 2 of 3 2 of 2 25 of 60 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 17 of 55 30% 7 of 43 3 of 3 7 of 9 17 of 55 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Sergei Pavlovich 11 of 23 47% 9 of 21 0 of 0 2 of 2 11 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 7 of 15 46% 0 of 8 2 of 2 5 of 5 7 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Sergei Pavlovich 3 of 19 15% 2 of 17 1 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 6 of 17 35% 3 of 13 1 of 1 2 of 3 6 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Sergei Pavlovich 11 of 18 61% 10 of 17 1 of 1 0 of 0 11 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 4 of 23 17% 4 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 1 4 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Sergei Pavlovich vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Round 1
Business picks up in the heavyweight division, where Pavlovich (18-3, 6-3 UFC) sets his sights on Rozenstruik (15-5, 9-5 UFC) in a three-round showcase. They have nine sub-minute finishes between them. Smith handles the refereeing duties. The former training partners are ready to go. They meet in the middle without a glove touch. Rozenstruik lands an inside leg kick. Pavlovich answers. The Russian paws with his jab, hoping to exploit his reach advantage. He follows a jab with a thudding overhand right but elects not to follow up. Inside leg kick from Rozenstruik. Neither man looks to eager to throw midway through the round. Pavlovich flicks out his jab and steps forward behind another one-two. Rozenstruik rolls with it. Action somewhat tepid thus far. Low kicks from both men. Smith warns Pavlovich about extending his fingers. The Russian connects with an overhand right. Rozenstruik loses his balance while avoiding an overhand right and winds up on his back, pinned beneath his monstrous counterpart. Pavlovich works his ground-and-pound in half guard. Thirty seconds to go. Body-head shots from the Russian, who looks to have salted away this round.

Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Pavlovich
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Pavlovich
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Pavlovich

Round 2
And away we go for the second round. Rozenstruik feints a low kick and thinks better of it. Pavlovich probes with his jab. Rozenstruik down blocks a front kick to the body. Pavlovich resets, keeps his head and feet moving and hunts for potential openings. Again, neither man eager to throw. Inside leg kick from Rozenstruik. Pavlovich steps forward with a left hook, then evades the return fire. Fans growing restless with the inactivity. Pavlovich connects with a counter right hook, drives forward and secures a takedown. He lands in half guard and throws his ground-and-pound into gear. Pavlovich swings his left hand into the Surinamese kickboxer’s head repeatedly, doing more than enough to avoid a restart. Rozenstruik going nowhere with less than a minute on the clock. Looks like he will head to the third round in a significant hole on the scorecards. Pavlovich peppers him with short punches until the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Pavlovich
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Pavlovich
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Pavlovich

Round 3
Rozenstruik likely needs a finish here. The flick jabs at one another. Pavlovich lands with a left hook. Smith asks for more action. They trade powerful left hooks. Neither man goes down. More jabs from both man. Pavlovich steps into a body lock behind an overhand right and secures a takedown. With three minutes to go, Rozenstruik’s situation has grown downright dire. He has shown no ability to get back to his feet thus far. Pavlovich works in half guard, scoring with left hands to the body and forearm strikes to the head. Rozenstruik still flat on his back at the base of his cage. Pavlovich staying busy, even though he has not yet landed anything of consequence. He mixes left hands to the body with rights to the head. Rozenstruik gets to his knees with a minute to go and finally gets back to his feet. They separate with 30 seconds on the clock. Pavlovich buckles his opponent with a counter left hook. Rozenstruik lunges in with a left hook, but the Hail Mary finish he seeks fails to materialize.

Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 30-27 Pavlovich
Scottie Smith scores the round: 30-27 Pavlovich
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 30-27 Pavlovich

The Official Result
Sergei Pavlovich def. Jairzinho Rozenstruik—Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 26, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Angelo picks Jairzinho Rozenstruik, citing his technical striking and counter-striking ability. He notes that Sergei Pavlovich struggles against a jab, as seen in his loss to Volkov. He believes Rozenstruik's Muay Thai and patience will allow him to frustrate Pavlovich and take over as the fight goes on. He acknowledges Pavlovich's power and speed but thinks Rozenstruik's technique wins.

"I think jarino wins he's the more technical Striker and I think that's what's going to matter"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 27, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Sergei Pavlovich

Big Brady thinks Sergei Pavlovich needs to be aggressive to win. He notes Pavlovich looked terrible against Volkov when he wasn't aggressive, but when he rushes forward he knocks people out. Brady believes if Pavlovich brings aggression, he will sleep Jairzinho Rozenstruik in the first round. He chalks up the Volkov fight to them being friends/training partners.

first round knockout
"if he brings the aggressiveness in this fight I think he sleeps Rosen stro in round one so I'll say pavich pavlovich to win this fight by first round knockout"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Sergei Pavlovich

Connor picks Pavlovich, believing he can overwhelm Rozenstruik early with his power. He notes that Rozenstruik is a trigger counter puncher who stands with locked knees, making him vulnerable to a bull rush. Connor thinks Pavlovich's loss to Volkov was due to familiarity and that he will revert to his aggressive style. However, he acknowledges that if Pavlovich hesitates or tries to be technical, he will lose.

"I am actually going to take Pavlovitch here. Split with you once more, just because I think that part of the Volkov thing was he and Volkov being such longtime training partners, that it was actually just one of those …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Jan 30, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Sergei Pavlovich

James picks Pavlovich to win by knockout in round one, but he is not confident and sees value on Rozenstruik. He notes Pavlovich's tendency to fade if he doesn't get an early KO, and that Rozenstruik has a chance to win by decision or knockout in later rounds. He mentions Rozenstruik's decision prop at +700 as a potential small play. He is undecided on betting Rozenstruik.

Rozenstruik by decision at +700 mentioned as a possible prop; also notes Rozenstruik has value at +275.
"I'm going to pick pavlovich to win via knockout in round one you know that's my official prediction"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Rozenstruik is the technically better striker and will use his mobility, straight jabs, and counters to pick apart Pavlovich's wild combinations. He is expected to win on the scorecards.

"Rozenstruik is the technically better striker here... look for Rozenstruik to pick apart Pavlovich and win this fight on the scorecards."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 28, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Sergei Pavlovich

The MMA Guru picks Sergei Pavlovich to win by first-round TKO. He believes Pavlovich has a great chin and will remind people he is a top heavyweight. He notes Rozenstruik was finished by Volkov and that Pavlovich took a beating from Volkov but never got finished. He expects a dominant performance.

first round TKO
"Sergey pavlovich I believe will get a first round T TKO this weekend"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Zane picks Rozenstruik, arguing that Pavlovich is a one-dimensional brawler who has not evolved. He notes that Rozenstruik is a durable counter puncher who can settle in and pick apart aggressive fighters. Zane believes Pavlovich's lack of a range game and poor fight IQ will be exposed, and that Rozenstruik's trigger countering will catch him coming in.

"I don't think he's going to beat Rosen Strike. The thing is, he absolutely can't. And it's not just like, oh, he can because he could go out there and solve the problem."
WIN vs Tai Tuivasa
Decision (split) (29–28, 27–30, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 305: du Plessis vs. Adesanya · Aug 18, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 0 37 of 126 29% 37 of 126 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Tai Tuivasa 0 91 of 184 49% 92 of 185 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jairzinho Rozenstruik 0 9 of 38 23% 9 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tai Tuivasa 0 19 of 48 39% 19 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jairzinho Rozenstruik 0 13 of 38 34% 13 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Tai Tuivasa 0 36 of 69 52% 37 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Jairzinho Rozenstruik 0 15 of 50 30% 15 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tai Tuivasa 0 36 of 67 53% 36 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 37 of 126 29% 19 of 92 6 of 17 12 of 17 37 of 124 0 of 2 0 of 0
Tai Tuivasa 91 of 184 49% 58 of 146 12 of 16 21 of 22 86 of 177 5 of 7 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jairzinho Rozenstruik 9 of 38 23% 1 of 22 2 of 5 6 of 11 9 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tai Tuivasa 19 of 48 39% 5 of 32 4 of 6 10 of 10 19 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Jairzinho Rozenstruik 13 of 38 34% 8 of 28 1 of 6 4 of 4 13 of 37 0 of 1 0 of 0
Tai Tuivasa 36 of 69 52% 27 of 57 4 of 6 5 of 6 33 of 65 3 of 4 0 of 0
3 Jairzinho Rozenstruik 15 of 50 30% 10 of 42 3 of 6 2 of 2 15 of 49 0 of 1 0 of 0
Tai Tuivasa 36 of 67 53% 26 of 57 4 of 4 6 of 6 34 of 64 2 of 3 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs. Tai Tuivasa
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Rozenstruik (-225), Tuivasa (+185)

Round 1
The UFC has thrown the crowd some red meat on the main card in the form of a good old-fashioned heavyweight slobberknocker. While Rozenstruik (14-5, 8-5 UFC) may have the kickboxing background and is a more technical man compared to his opponent, he does not shy away from throwing bungalows when the mood strikes him. Tuivasa (14-7, 8-7 UFC) will feed him that mood as well as several punches, if he has anything to say about it. Referee Marc Goddard buckles up for what is about to come next. Happy as a clam to fight in front of a crowd that is drowning him with adoration, Tuivasa offers a fist bump that is gladly accepted. Rozenstruik moves to the center of the cage to start, and he stays away from a front kick lobbed at him. Rozenstruik snaps out a kick to the lead leg, and he lands one on the inside as well. Tuivasa gives him a kick back to think about, and Rozenstruik counters with a right over the top. Tuivasa kicks him again, and he leans back to dodge it. The Aussie absorbs another low kick and adjusts his shorts, and he sits down on a right hand when Rozenstruik inevitably chops at his front wheel again. Tuivasa uses several feints to draw out wide reactions, and he overkicks to turn himself around. Rozenstruik reaches him with a one-two, and he retreats before getting countered. Tuivasa sells out on another inaccurate kick, and Rozenstruik prods him with a jab. Rozenstruik gets in a left hook and a hard calf kick, and he absorbs a much heavier one coming back. They jab at the same time, and Rozenstruik paws out his left hook to measure. Tuivasa gets a front kick to land on the belly, and he winds up with a right hand and pulls it back as Rozenstruik flinches. Tuivasa chips with kicks on both sides, and he gets off a left hook and is met with a left to the chest. Tuivasa keeps his guard up to block a lead left hook, and he tries to jab his way in only to get met with quicker offense. Tuivasa misses with a low kick and dodges a looping strike in response, but Rozenstruik still gets him in the belly. Rozenstruik kicks his man in the side, and he gets clipped with two big hooks right before the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rozenstruik
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rozenstruik
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rozenstruik

Round 2
The big men touch ‘em up to begin Round 2, and Rozenstruik leads behind several jabs. When Tuivasa tries to do the same, Rozenstruik chews up his front leg. Rozenstruik loads up and smashes Tuivasa in the side of the head with a right hand, and he manages to escape danger by a matter of inches when Tuivasa tries to retaliate. Tuivasa goes after his opponent with a right hand, and Rozenstruik is just out of range. Tuivasa stands firm, cracking Rozenstruik with a right hand, and Tuivasa absorbs a flush knee to the body on the way out. Tuivasa slugs with a right hand, and Rozenstruik turns the corner and strings several punches together. Tuivasa rebounds off the fencing, and he walks face-first into a right hand and a knee. Tuivasa backs his adversary to the wall but is not able to catch him with anything clean, and he is slowly working his way forward. Tuivasa engages with a hard right hand, and he releases a low kick that slams his foot into Rozenstruik’s knee. Tuivasa limps back, and Rozenstruik charges at him and lays into him with a mighty blitz of punches. Tuivasa gets cut on the right side of his face, and he starts firing back, backing Rozenstruik away and hurting him as well. Tuivasa shakes his foot out and struggles to put weight on it. Rozenstruik lines a one-two down the pipe, and a head kick that follows is blocked. Tuivasa catches Rozenstruik ducking down, but it is one-and-done. Rozenstruik lands a few kicks, and the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rozenstruik
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rozenstruik
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rozenstruik

Round 3
Gloves are touched to kick off the final round, much to the surprise of many that it got this far. Rozenstruik keeps behind his jab to stop Tuivasa from reaching him, and a leg kick after it is also effective. Tuivasa uses his own jab, but it is not able to reach the target. A right hand does, and Rozenstruik counters right back. Tuivasa is out of range of a front kick, and two jabs fall short as well. Rozenstruik snaps the head back with his own jab, and he kicks the body and escapes as Tuivasa lumbers towards him. Tuivasa finds his own with a left and then a right, and Rozenstruik scoots away from any further blows before stabbing out a jab. Tuivasa lands a stance-changing low kick, and he elbows Rozenstruik when Rozenstruik loads up on a left hand. Tuivasa walks through a jab to unload with a right, and Rozenstruik catches him with a right on the inside. Rozenstruik stays composed and watches massive right hands soar past him, and he pushes off with a front kick that adjusts Tuivasa’s cup. Tuivasa waves Goddard off, and he practically sprints at Rozenstruik with his right hand firing off. Rozenstruik’s head movement keeps him safe, and his jab peppers the Aussie again and again. Rozenstruik shields himself from the telegraphed bombs, and he gets up close and scores a short right hand. As Tuivasa goes wide, Rozenstruik pretends to smooth out his hair—he is bald, so it is a mocking gesture. Rozenstruik plods out with front kicks and jabs, keeping Tuivasa from getting his hands on him. Tuivasa sells out with big punches, and he points the ground to force a brawl. Rozenstruik does the same, and they blast one another with ferocious punches. This continues right to the final horn, and they have made it the distance.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rozenstruik (30-27 Rozenstruik)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rozenstruik (30-27 Rozenstruik)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rozenstruik (30-27 Rozenstruik)

The Official Result
Jairzinho Rozenstruik def. Tai Tuivasa via Split Decision (29-28, 27-30, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 11, 2024 (7 days before fight)
Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Angelo picks Jairzinho Rozenstruik because he is a great counter striker who will step off and land big on Tai Tuivasa, who overcommits and has a compromised chin. He notes that Tuivasa has been knocked down in four straight fights and that Rozenstruik's technique will be the difference. He expects a one-punch knockout and will look for prop value.

Will wait for prop bets to see value
"I see him stepping off Landing big on Tai I think Tai is going to lose and luckily I don't think it matters."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Big Brady picks Jairzinho Rozenstruik to win by second-round knockout. He criticizes the matchmaking for giving Tuivasa a tough fight when he is on a four-fight skid and a fan favorite in Australia. He believes Rozenstruik is the better striker and that Tuivasa is very hittable and has been getting hurt in fights. He expects Rozenstruik to knock him out in the second round. He notes both fighters are likely to stand and bang, making it an entertaining fight.

knockout in round 2
"I got to go Rosen stro I think Rosen str's a better Striker tied to Evas he's very hitable um he's been getting hurt in a lot of fights I think Rosen probably knocks him out in the second round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Cody points to Tuivasa's four-fight losing streak, declining durability, and lack of recent power, while Rozenstruik is coming off a win and has a style that can pick Tuivasa apart from range. He notes Rozenstruik's volume and leg kicks will be key, and that Tuivasa's heart may not be in it anymore. Cody expects a decision or late stoppage for Rozenstruik.

"I got to go with Logic on this one and say that Rosen structur that points him from range"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Aug 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Daniel Vreeland picks Jairzinho Rozenstruik to win, citing Tuivasa's four-fight losing streak and questionable camp. He acknowledges that Tuivasa has knockout power and that the fight could go either way, but believes Rozenstruik is the cleaner striker with better cardio. Vreeland notes that he might bet Tuivasa as a dog but is leaning toward Rozenstruik for the pick.

"I'm gonna go with Jero but like I've seen Jero get slept more than once is it gonna surprise me if he gets slept here not at all but P pick I'mma agree with uh him being the favorite here"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Vreeland picks Rozenstruik, citing his recent win showing he still has something left. He notes Tuivasa has lost four straight and lacks durability. He suggests the knockout prop for better odds, as Rozenstruik has power to finish.

Knockout prop (recommended for better line)
"give me biggie boy probably gonna knock him out you may like The Knockout prop on this fight if you want to get a better line on it"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Hesitant picked Aug 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Tai Tuivasa

Fox picks Tuivasa, believing he can land a big shot if he backs Rozenstruik to the cage. He criticizes Rozenstruik's performance against Gajiev, noting he backed up and won by TKO due to Gajiev's poor cardio. Fox thinks Tuivasa's one-touch power and lack of takedown threat give him a chance.

"give me taasa I'm gonna believe one more time"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Jairzinho Rozenstruik

The host is confident in Rozenstruik, citing his technical striking superiority and jab. He expects Rozenstruik to control the pace and knock out Tuivasa, who he sees as a one-dimensional knockout-or-bust fighter. He acknowledges the heavyweight volatility but feels stylistically Rozenstruik is far superior.

Rozenstruik by knockout
"give me Rosen strike and Rosen strike by knockout"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Tai Tuivasa

Paul acknowledges Tuivasa's losing streak and durability concerns but believes the crowd and the matchup favor him as a banger. He notes that both fighters are strikers and that Tuivasa has a puncher's chance, especially in front of an Australian crowd. Paul calls it a 'dogger pass' type of fight and leans toward Tuivasa as a live underdog.

"it's pretty clearly dogger pass type of uh type of fight for me"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 12, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Jairzinho Rozenstruik

The MMA Guru picks Jairzinho Rozenstruik over Tai Tuivasa. He criticizes Tuivasa's lack of discipline and commitment, noting he has lost four in a row, including a first-round finish to Martin Tybura. He believes Rozenstruik is a more technical kickboxer with a good jab and inside leg kicks. He notes Tuivasa is hittable and has been finished before. He expects Rozenstruik to land more and win.

"I'm going to go with jinho rosenstrike I'm just not going to trust in Tito evasa anymore"
WIN vs Shamil Gaziev
TKO (retirement) R4 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev · Mar 02, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 0 127 of 215 59% 140 of 230 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:01
Shamil Gaziev 0 22 of 68 32% 27 of 75 1 of 7 14% 0 0 4:32
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jairzinho Rozenstruik 0 13 of 31 41% 15 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Shamil Gaziev 0 8 of 18 44% 12 of 23 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:46
2 Jairzinho Rozenstruik 0 19 of 41 46% 26 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Shamil Gaziev 0 7 of 19 36% 7 of 19 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:04
3 Jairzinho Rozenstruik 0 47 of 75 62% 47 of 75 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Shamil Gaziev 0 5 of 19 26% 5 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Jairzinho Rozenstruik 0 48 of 68 70% 52 of 73 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:01
Shamil Gaziev 0 2 of 12 16% 3 of 14 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:42
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 127 of 215 59% 78 of 158 30 of 37 19 of 20 123 of 209 4 of 6 0 of 0
Shamil Gaziev 22 of 68 32% 16 of 59 5 of 8 1 of 1 17 of 60 4 of 6 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jairzinho Rozenstruik 13 of 31 41% 8 of 25 2 of 3 3 of 3 12 of 30 1 of 1 0 of 0
Shamil Gaziev 8 of 18 44% 7 of 17 1 of 1 0 of 0 7 of 15 0 of 1 1 of 2
2 Jairzinho Rozenstruik 19 of 41 46% 11 of 32 5 of 6 3 of 3 19 of 40 0 of 1 0 of 0
Shamil Gaziev 7 of 19 36% 2 of 13 4 of 5 1 of 1 3 of 15 4 of 4 0 of 0
3 Jairzinho Rozenstruik 47 of 75 62% 24 of 48 16 of 19 7 of 8 47 of 75 0 of 0 0 of 0
Shamil Gaziev 5 of 19 26% 5 of 17 0 of 2 0 of 0 5 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Jairzinho Rozenstruik 48 of 68 70% 35 of 53 7 of 9 6 of 6 45 of 64 3 of 4 0 of 0
Shamil Gaziev 2 of 12 16% 2 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 11 0 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs. Shamil Gaziev
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Gaziev (-148), Rozenstruik (+124)

Round 1
It’s all down to the heavyweights tonight. The big men sport nearly identical finish rates, with their primary method of victory by knockout, so referee Marc Goddard might not need to put in 25 minutes of work here. Former kickboxer Rozenstruik (13-5, 7-5 UFC) would like nothing more than to blunt the momentum of the undefeated Gaziev (12-0, 1-0 UFC), and he will have five rounds or less to spring the minor betting upset. They touch gloves respectfully, and prepare to handle their business. Rozenstruik circles to the outside, lands a leg kick, and gets himself ready to stop a takedown. Gaziev shoots, and he bounces off the fence when he misses. Rozenstruik strafes to the side and lands a right hand that makes Gaziev lick his lips. Rozenstruik scores a leg kick, and he comes up short on an overhand right. Rozenstruik paws out a jab, and his foe backs him to the fence. Gaziev crashes the pocket for a takedown, and Rozenstruik stands him up immediately and smacks him with a right hand. Rozenstruik jabs, and he avoids a huge right hand. Another Gaziev crashing takedown effort gets stopped in its tracks, and Rozenstruik busts his foe’s nose open with his fists. Gaziev shows little setup when he tries to take the fight down, and does not even bend over so much as he runs straight ahead. Rozenstruik briefly knocks him back with a one-two, and Gaziev gets right back to his constant forward pressure. Rozenstruik scores a right hand and then jabs his way out to safety. Gaziev swings as hard as he can with a left and a monstrous right, and Rozenstruik dodges by a matter of inches. Gaziev plods ahead and then lumbers into a clinch, swinging slow punches all the while. Gaziev drops down to scoop up a single, and he lifts the kickboxer up and slams him down. Gaziev connects with a few short punches from above, and keeps his weight pressed down heavily. The round ends with Gaziev sitting up measuring a strike.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gaziev
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Gaziev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Gaziev

Round 2
The big men reach Round 2, and Rozenstruik reintroduces himself with multiple snappy jabs. Gaziev lumbers forward, and Rozenstruik uses head movement to dodge the majority of the big punches coming from the Bahraini. Rozenstruik reaches out with punches and low kicks, and he smiles when eating a jab as they high-five from an exchange. Rozenstruik looks for two punches, and Gaziev sneaks a counter right around the top to back him away. Gaziev pushes out his own jab, and Rozenstruik goes to the body and then reaches out with a one-two. Gaziev smiles when he eats a jab, and he fails to land when swinging at the kickboxer. Gaziev drives a knee right to the belly, and Rozenstruik responds with a single jab. Gaziev swings with more of a hammerfist than a straight punch, and Rozenstruik chops at his lead leg when Gaziev slowly moves forward. Rozenstruik naps out his jab to decent effect, disrupting the oncoming Gaziev until Gaziev simply decides to rumble forward like a tank and go after a single. Rozenstruik uses the wall behind him to keep himself upright, and he pulls his leg down to stop the effort. The two trade knees to the gut, and Gaziev presses tightly to control “Bigi Boy.” Rozenstruik gets in a few more short knees to the body, and Gaziev fails on another takedown effort. Goddard asks them to work as Gaziev stalls out, and Rozenstruik tries to get away again only to be snagged by his opponent and held in the clinch until the horn blares.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rozenstruik
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rozenstruik
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rozenstruik

Round 3
It is the third round, and these two heavyweights are quite fatigued to this point. They meet in the middle with a glove touch, and Rozenstruik stands firm and jabs the head and body. “Bigi Boy” lands a leg kick, and he paws out with several jabs to keep Gaziev at bay. Gaziev clubs his foe with a right hand, and he sneaks another right around the jab to get Rozenstruik’s attention. Rozenstruik throws back with a single right after multiple jabs, and Gaziev’s nose is bloodied and his mouth wide open. Gaziev charges, landing a left hand, but he gets stunned with a right hand that nearly dislodges his mouthpiece. Gaziev holds his mouthguard like it is about to fly out, as he appears to be struggling to breathe. Rozenstruik snaps out jab after jab, and blood sprays from Gaziev’s nose when he absorbs each and every blow. Rozenstruik rips a right hand to the body, and he hops away from the offense from Gaziev that is slow and labored. Gaziev continues to shuffle his mouthpiece, and Rozenstruik opens up with a fierce combination ending with a chopping low kick. Gaziev reaches out with his arms outstretched, and Rozenstruik snaps his head back with a mean jab. Gaziev sits down on a right hand counter, and Rozenstruik has to shake it out and backpedal. Rozenstruik gathers his thoughts and jabs away, and when he lands a leg kick, he gets knocked back with a right hand. The kick did enough damage to draw out a minimal limp, and both men stand in front of one another and engage in a brief, fierce exchange to end the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rozenstruik
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rozenstruik
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rozenstruik

Round 4
The championship rounds have been reached, much to the surprise of most prognosticators. Rozenstruik does not change his approach, with jabs and leg kicks completely flustering the undefeated fighter. Rozenstruik’s power jab stops Gaziev from hitting him cleanly, until Gaziev decides he is sick of getting hit and runs forward. Gaziev unleashes several big punches, knocking “Bigi Boy” against the fencing, and he shoots for a takedown to follow and try to take back some momentum. Rozenstruik staves it off and slides away to not get hit by an elbow on the break, and he returns to striking range while Gaziev is chewing on his mouthpiece. Rozenstruik jabs the face and chest, and Gaziev glares at him but does not have the energy reserves to do anything more but look angry. Gaziev tries to throw a single punch, and he does not have the gas to reach his opponent. Rozenstruik opens up with a left and a huge right, seeing that Gaziev is spent. He releases several more heavy punches, stinging the unbeaten fighter, and starts feeling himself. Rozenstruik jabs and smacks Gaziev in the face, and he lets Gaziev swing futilely back his direction. Rozenstruik lets go with additional jabs and doubles up on a leg kick as Gaziev looks down at his damaged limb but does not keep attacking. The jab dislodges Gaziev’s gumshield, and Rozenstruik walks off to celebrate the cool moment as Goddard recovers it and has Gaziev replace it. Rozenstruik surges into action as seconds are left in the round, and he shoots for his own takedown so Gaziev sells out defending it, and he bails on it to unload with a flurry of strikes to end the round. As Gaziev sits on his stool, he seems to tell his corner he cannot continue. The translation is not clear, whether he is injured or exhausted or something else. Gaziev stands up, and with his corner still in the cage, Goddard goes over to them all and calls time. Goddard demands that the corner translate what Gaziev was saying, and eventually they inform him that Gaziev says he cannot see. Goddard has the doctor check out Gaziev, but before the physician can determine any lack of vision, Gaziev shakes his head and seems to motion that he is all done tonight after getting beaten up for 20 minutes. Therefore, it is a stoppage via retirement at the end of the fourth round. It is a crucial win for the former kickboxer, as he strips the 0 from Gaziev’s record, and turns a rough patch to 2-1 in his last three. In his post-fight interview, Rozenstruik welcomes any challenge, and many minds immediately go to Derrick Lewis, as the two sluggers have never met. Next week, it is a massive night for the sport as UFC 299 goes down in Miami with a blockbuster lineup. We will be here for it, and we hope you are too.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rozenstruik
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rozenstruik
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rozenstruik

The Official Result
Jairzinho Rozenstruik def. Shamil Gaziev R4 5:00 via TKO (Retirement)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 25, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Shamil Gaziev

Angelo picks Shamil Gaziev, calling the -140 odds a gift. He notes Rozenstruik is one-dimensional and flat-footed, while Gaziev has power, wrestling, and better movement. He has a full unit bet on Gaziev and expects him to win.

Full unit bet at -140
"this is Shamil gaze all day long the minus 140 odds on him is a gift from the heavens"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Feb 27, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Big Brady picks Rozenstruik despite acknowledging Gaziev's power and early finishing ability. He notes that Gaziev has only been past 1.5 rounds once and has cardio concerns, while Rozenstruik has five-round experience and a fifth-round knockout. He believes if the fight extends, it heavily favors Rozenstruik. However, he admits he has no confidence in the pick and won't bet the fight except maybe a prop.

won't bet the fight except maybe a prop
"I'll take Rosen stro I'll take him to win by Seal knockout but I mean that this pick can age very badly very fast"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 28, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Cody sees Rozenstruik as a live underdog due to his knockout power and proven five-round cardio, noting that Gaziev has weak cardio and has never been extended beyond two rounds. He believes if Rozenstruik survives the early takedown onslaught, Gaziev will gas and Rozenstruik can finish him late. He compares it to the Overeem fight where Rozenstruik knocked him out in the fifth round.

"I feel like this is a fight that Rosen struck loses early uh if he gets finished it's over you lose if he doesn't get finished this thing drags on a little bit you're going to get a much better …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 26, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Shamil Gaziev

Gaziev is a strong grappler who should get the fight to the ground with relative ease. Rozenstruik struggles against grapplers, as seen in losses to Curtis Blaydes, Jailton Almeida, and Alexander Volkov. Gaziev's striking confidence has improved, and he can stay safe from Rozenstruik's power until he secures a takedown. Once on the ground, Gaziev's strength will be too much, leading to a TKO or submission finish within the first round. The host considers -145 a gift line.

Gaziev round 1 TKO or submission, fight doesn't go past 4-5 minutes
"I'm going to go godv here minus 145 in my opinion gift of a line we might not be able to get him at this line"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Feb 28, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Shamil Gaziev

Paul picks Gaziev but acknowledges it's a 60/40 fight and not one he has a big edge on. He expects Gaziev to get early takedowns but questions what happens after that, noting Gaziev's cardio concerns. He mentions the fight feels like a toss-up and he's not entirely confident.

"he's going to be my pick but yeah honestly at like minus 150 plus 130 it's like I don't know this kind of does feel like a 6040 type of fight to me like I'm not entirely sure it's not …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Feb 27, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Jairzinho Rozenstruik

The MMA Guru struggles with this pick but ultimately goes with Rozenstruik. He thinks Gaziev is open on the feet and has been dropped before, while Rozenstruik has power and experience in main events. He worries about Rozenstruik's takedown defense but believes he can survive and find opportunities. He predicts a KO in round one and mentions betting on Rozenstruik as an underdog.

KO win in round 1, underdog bet
"I'm going to go Jairzinho Rozenstruik... I think Rosenstrike can chew him up... getting a KO round one"
LOSS vs Jailton Almeida
Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 3:43 · UFC on ABC: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida · May 13, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jailton Almeida 0 0 of 2 0% 3 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 0 4 of 7 57% 14 of 19 1 of 2 50% 1 0 3:09
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jailton Almeida 0 0 of 2 0% 3 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 0 4 of 7 57% 14 of 19 1 of 2 50% 1 0 3:09
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jailton Almeida 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 4 of 7 57% 3 of 5 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jailton Almeida 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 4 of 7 57% 3 of 5 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 5
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 7, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Angelo picks Almeida, noting his powerful hands, incredible grappling, and non-stop pressure. He mentions Almeida has never gone to a decision in the UFC and all wins are by stoppage. He cautions that Almeida is a 205-pounder moving up to heavyweight, but hasn't struggled yet. He says the only way to bet him is through parlays because the line is too high for moneyline, and calls him safe to parlay.

Only way to bet is through parlays; safe to parlay
"jolton's gonna be the pick here and the only way you can bet on him is through parlays because the line is just too much for money line and I do think that is safe"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 8, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Big Brady expects Almeida to shoot a takedown within the first 10-20 seconds, as he always does. He notes Rozenstruik has poor takedown defense and a weak ground game, citing past fights where he was taken down by Overeem, Blaydes, and even Junior Albini. Brady predicts Almeida will take Rozenstruik's back and finish via submission or ground-and-pound in the first round. He calls it a 'pretty hilarious fight' that won't last long.

first round finish (submission or KO)
"Jonathan Almeida is gonna go for a takedown within the first 10 seconds I mean I can almost guarantee it's gonna be like the first 10 to 20 seconds he's going to shoot a takedown and he's probably going to …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 10, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Cody agrees with Paul, picking Almeida but noting the big favorite price is concerning. He highlights Almeida's takedown entries and ground control, and mentions Rozenstruik's poor takedown defense and hesitancy. He expects Almeida to finish inside the distance, likely by TKO from mount, and discusses the under 1.5 rounds and under 1.5 takedowns props.

under 1.5 rounds, under 1.5 takedowns for Almeida, fight time under 4 minutes on PrizePicks
"I got gelton Almeida but it's such a big favorite at this point that what can go wrong because what's been going wrong every single League pause like Murphy's Law what can go wrong has seemingly been going wrong"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked May 11, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Connor agrees with Zane, calling it a clear grappling mismatch. He highlights that Rozenstruik is a lifelong kickboxer with no grappling, and Almeida is a specialist who will take him down and finish him. He notes that heavyweights don't grapple, so Almeida's skills are especially effective.

"Jailton Almeida is going to win. Yeah, that's about it. I mean, if he doesn't, it'll be because Rozenstruik got one opportunity and made it count for everything it was worth."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 11, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Daniel Levi picks Jailton Almeida to win, citing Almeida's elite jiu-jitsu and wrestling that should overwhelm Rozenstruik on the mat. He notes Rozenstruik's takedown defense is poor and his ground survival skills have not been tested against a black belt of Almeida's caliber. Levi expects Almeida to employ his usual game plan of takedowns and ground control, leading to a stoppage via submission or ground and pound. He acknowledges Rozenstruik's power and kickboxing background but believes Almeida's path to victory is decisive on the mat.

under 4.5 rounds -1000, under 3.5 rounds -770, under 2.5 rounds -450, under 1.5 rounds -225; method likely submission or ground and pound
"I gotta go with the minus 500 favorite jealous and Almeida to get it done... jailton Almeida via something on the mat is the pick here"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked May 11, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

James sees this as a straightforward matchup where Almeida's elite wrestling and grappling will overwhelm Rozenstruik, who is primarily a kickboxer with poor takedown defense. He references Curtis Blaydes' success taking Rozenstruik down at will and believes Almeida is even more athletic and stronger. James notes Rozenstruik's only path to victory is an early knockout, but once taken down, he expects Almeida to dominate and finish. He predicts a first-round finish via TKO or submission, though he won't bet the moneyline at -500.

Considering prop bets on TKO (+300) or submission, or under 1.5 rounds; will decide based on lines.
"I'm predicting jar to now made it to go in there get a takedown just like Curtis blades did... I think John's going to get a first round finish here."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 8, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Almeida is a hot prospect moving up to heavyweight, with speed and grappling advantages. He sets up takedowns with power shots, drags opponents to the mat, and mauls them with ground-and-pound or submissions. Rozenstruik is one-dimensional, relying on knockout power, but has nothing off his back and struggles against well-rounded fighters. Almeida will get the fight to the ground and finish emphatically in the first round.

under 1.5 rounds
"give me Jay Isleton Almeida to pick up the biggest win of his UFC career to date and do it emphatically in the first round under one and a half not too shabby either"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 10, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Paul picks Almeida confidently, citing his elite grappling and takedown ability. He notes that Almeida gets the takedown early and dominates on the ground, but the minus 500 price is too steep for a bet due to heavyweight volatility. He acknowledges Rozenstruik's puncher's chance but believes Almeida's wrestling is overwhelming.

under 1.5 rounds, under 1.5 takedowns for Almeida, fight time under 4 minutes on PrizePicks
"I think Jason gets the takedown I think he gets it early I think he uh beats the you know what out of Rosen strike when he gets this fight to the mat but at minus 500 they have taken …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 9, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

The MMA Guru picks Jailton Almeida, citing his grappling dominance and finishing ability. He notes Almeida's success in grappling tournaments and his recent submission wins. He believes Almeida will take Rozenstruik down and submit him, as Rozenstruik has looked lost on the ground against Overeem and Blaydes. He predicts a first-round TKO or submission.

first round TKO or submission
"I'm going with jail to now made a jazzinio rosenstroik looked somewhat lost on the ground against Overeem... I think he's going to beat rosenstroik"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 11, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Zane sees this as a clear grappling mismatch. He notes that Rozenstruik is clueless off his back and that Almeida is a relentless grappler who finishes everyone. He emphasizes that Almeida's takedown game, especially low singles, will be impossible for Rozenstruik to defend, and once taken down, Almeida will punish him thoroughly.

"Jailton Almeida is going to win. Yeah, that's about it. I mean, if he doesn't, it'll be because Rozenstruik got one opportunity and made it count for everything it was worth."
WIN vs Chris Daukaus
KO (punch) R1 0:23 · UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev · Dec 10, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 1 12 of 21 57% 12 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Chris Daukaus 0 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jairzinho Rozenstruik 1 12 of 21 57% 12 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Chris Daukaus 0 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 12 of 21 57% 12 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0 9 of 16 0 of 1 3 of 4
Chris Daukaus 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jairzinho Rozenstruik 12 of 21 57% 12 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0 9 of 16 0 of 1 3 of 4
Chris Daukaus 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Dec 4, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Chris Daukaus

Angelo picks Daukaus despite Rozenstruik being a 2-1 favorite, because he believes Daukaus is the better striker with better footwork, speed, and volume. He notes both have power and suspect chins, making it essentially a 50-50 fight. He advises not to bet on this fight due to the volatility, but suggests using both in knockout Kings entries.

Do not bet on this fight; use both in knockout Kings entries.
"I want to pick dacas here I think he's the better Striker and that sounds stupid because technically speaking I think rosenstruck is but I think Chris has the better footwork he's active he's faster he's busier"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Big Brady picks Jairzinho Rozenstruik, emphasizing his superior power and questioning Daukaus's chin after being knocked out by Curtis Blaydes. He notes Rozenstruik has been more active and hits harder, and expects a first-round knockout. He criticizes the UFC for feeding Daukaus to a heavy hitter.

Rozenstruik wins by first round knockout
"I'm gonna go rosenstruck to win by first round knockout but I think somebody's getting knocked out here and in probably in the first round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Cody picks Rozenstruik, citing his power and kickboxing background. He notes Daukaus has durability issues, having been knocked out by Lewis and Blaydes. He thinks Rozenstruik will land a counter right hand and knock him out. He suggests Rozenstruik by knockout or under 1.5 rounds.

Rozenstruik by knockout, under 1.5 rounds
"I'm going to lean towards Die Trying gets in the face lands a couple shots gets his confidence going and then just walks into a counter right hand from rosen's truck the flat lines them so give me a rose …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Dec 9, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Lock picks Rozenstruik to win, likely by knockout, but he is not comfortable paying the chalk price. He notes that Rozenstruik doesn't always maximize his knockout opportunities, making him hesitant even on the KO line at -125. From a PredictionStrike perspective, he suggests a pump and dump: buy Rozenstruik this weekend, sell after the win, because Rozenstruik has a ceiling and won't crack the top five again. He also mentions Daukaus might be cut after a third straight loss.

pump and dump on PredictionStrike
"I'll go with Rosen strike I'll just say pump and dump buy him this weekend knocks out Chris Chris talk to someone say Curtis"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Paul picks Rozenstruik, noting his power and that Daukaus has been knocked out by heavy hitters. He is more interested in the under 1.5 rounds prop, as he expects a finish. He acknowledges Rozenstruik is coming off a knockout loss but thinks Daukaus' durability is a bigger issue.

Under 1.5 rounds (-155)
"I'm gonna pick Rosen strike for the purposes of this show but I'm more interested in the under one and a half rounds like daucus doesn't yeah I mean you you summed it up very very nicely"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Jairzinho Rozenstruik

The MMA Guru picks Jairzinho Rozenstruik over Chris Daukaus by first-round KO. He criticizes Daukaus's chin and believes he was exposed in his fight against Shamil Abdurakhimov, where he got hit a lot. Rozenstruik has a reach advantage and power, and Daukaus is coming off a loss by his brother. He predicts Rozenstruik will put him down early.

"I think Rosen strike's gonna put him in a spliff so I think Rosen strike owes him in the first round puts him down"
TKO (punches) R1 2:12 · UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Rozenstruik · Jun 04, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alexander Volkov 0 21 of 37 56% 21 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 0 6 of 18 33% 6 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alexander Volkov 0 21 of 37 56% 21 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 0 6 of 18 33% 6 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alexander Volkov 21 of 37 56% 10 of 26 5 of 5 6 of 6 21 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 6 of 18 33% 3 of 15 0 of 0 3 of 3 6 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alexander Volkov 21 of 37 56% 10 of 26 5 of 5 6 of 6 21 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 6 of 18 33% 3 of 15 0 of 0 3 of 3 6 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Alexander Volkov vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Volkov (-155), Rozenstruik (+135)

Round 1
The heavyweight headliner is upon us as 515.5 pounds of man is slated to meet in the center of the cage in mere moments. Both Volkov (34-10, 8-4 UFC) and Rozenstruik (12-3, 6-3 UFC) are clinging to spots in the bottom half of the top 10 of the weight class, and a loss could eject one into the 11-15 range. Knockout rates of 65% for Volkov and 92% for “Bigi Boy” will throw down as referee Herb Dean hangs on tight, and fight fans around the world hope for action and excitement in the last fight of the day. Large gloves get touched ahead of the final bout of the card, and the main event is on. Two kicks from Volkov come fast, and Rozenstruik responds with one to the lower leg. Volkov is active in the first 15 seconds with a handful of kicks to all targets, including a high kick that slaps off Rozenstruik’s right hand. Volkov absorbs a low kick after blocking a punch, and he jabs his foe several times to the body. “Drago” chips away with body kicks, loosing a kiai every time he strikes. Volkov lands a few to the legs, and when he goes to the body, Rozenstruik pounces. Rozenstruik just misses on a huge, looping hook, and Volkov gathers himself and pierces the guard with a jab and a low kick. The former kickboxer responds with a heavier leg kick, and Volkov gets lazy when he lands a body kick again. Rozenstruik comes out furiously, letting loose with a few punches up high that surprise the Russian. Volkov staggers Rozenstruik with a straight right hand, and Rozenstruik leans towards the wall as he is in big trouble from the blow.
Three lightning-quick punches from “Drago” dislodge the mouthpiece of Rozenstruik, and Volkov continues punching as Rozenstruik’s lights flicker in and out. Smelling blood and knowing he could get his first first-round finish since 2016, Volkov unleashes a fury to match his tattoo, with a final barrage of punches that knock Rozenstruik against the wall. Dean intervenes before Rozenstruik hits the mat or loses consciousness, and he must not have liked what he saw by Rozenstruik’s body language to step in like this.
Volkov gets peeled away and Rozenstruik staggers off, but he is on his feet still and protests to Dean that he was not out. No matter what he says, the fight is over, and “Bigi Boy” is clearly on wobbled legs from the damage he absorbed when Volkov teed off on him. Volkov is back in the win column in a big way, with a knockout that will keep him in contendership for the foreseeable future. That is one event in the books, and many more are to come for the next several weeks. UFC 275 in Singapore – and four Road to UFC events before that – are on deck next week. We will be here for all of it, and we hope you are too.

The Official Result
Alexander Volkov def. Jairzinho Rozenstruik R1 2:12 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 29, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Angelo trusts Volkov's fight IQ and long striking style to keep him out of danger against Rozenstruik's one-punch power. He notes Volkov's recent losses were to elite grapplers and strikers, and believes Volkov can win a technical striking match or even mix in takedowns. The only worry is a repeat of the Derrick Lewis loss, but he sides with Volkov.

"i'm gonna side with volkov here i trust his fight iq i trust his move around long striking style to keep him out of danger"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 30, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Big Brady picks Alexander Volkov to win by decision. He thinks Volkov will be the clear minute winner with his volume and reach advantage, out-striking Rozenstruik over five rounds. He acknowledges Rozenstruik's power and that it only takes one shot, but believes Volkov's chin is good and he can avoid the knockout. He notes Volkov has looked off in recent fights (against Tybura and Aspinall) but still expects him to win. He mentions that Rozenstruik by KO at +200 is a possible prop.

Rozenstruik by KO +200 (mentioned as alternative)
"volkov volkov for the win volkov by decision for me"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Cody agrees with Paul's assessment, emphasizing Volkov's reach, output, and ability to stay on the outside. He notes Rozenstruik's power and the small cage as concerns but believes Volkov's volume will be key. He picks Volkov by decision and also likes the over 3.5 rounds.

Volkov by decision, over 3.5 rounds
"i got volkov i got vocal by decision i got the over three and a half"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 2, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Daniel Levi picks Jairzinho Rozenstruik as the underdog, citing Volkov's decline after the Ciryl Gane fight and poor performances against Tybura and Aspinall. He notes Rozenstruik's power, counter-striking, and the small cage favoring the shorter fighter. He recommends a one-unit bet on Rozenstruik by knockout at +210, as he doubts Volkov's durability and motivation.

Rozenstruik by knockout +210; one-unit bet
"i'm going with the underdog here i'm not sitting here saying it's max best season i'm not sitting here saying to make a big bet but you know plus 140 plus 145 odds i might take a one unit shot"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Paul argues that Volkov's high volume and durability should carry him to victory as long as he avoids getting knocked out. He notes that Rozenstruik is low-volume and unlikely to win a decision, and suggests Volkov by decision is a strong prop. He acknowledges the risk of Rozenstruik's power but believes Volkov's output will be decisive.

Volkov by decision (if available, likely around -200)
"i really struggle to see how jairzinio wins a a decision against alexander volkov so yeah volkov for me minus 150."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 30, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

The MMA Guru picks Alexander Volkov to win by decision. He criticizes Rozenstruik as 'fat', 'untrustworthy', and a 'coward', noting he often hesitates and stands around. He believes Volkov's range, front kicks, and size advantage will keep Rozenstruik at bay. He mentions Volkov's underrated chin and activity, and thinks Rozenstruik will freeze up. He predicts a lackluster decision with Volkov winning the majority of rounds.

"i think he's going to keep rose and strike at range rose and strikes gonna hesitate against a massive opponent"
LOSS vs Curtis Blaydes
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega · Sep 25, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Curtis Blaydes 0 32 of 96 33% 113 of 190 3 of 6 50% 0 0 6:19
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 0 18 of 68 26% 46 of 99 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Curtis Blaydes 0 19 of 42 45% 27 of 56 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:54
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 0 6 of 28 21% 13 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Curtis Blaydes 0 8 of 37 21% 43 of 73 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:20
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 0 10 of 31 32% 23 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Curtis Blaydes 0 5 of 17 29% 43 of 61 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:05
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 0 2 of 9 22% 10 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Curtis Blaydes 32 of 96 33% 18 of 76 6 of 8 8 of 12 24 of 86 0 of 0 8 of 10
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 18 of 68 26% 17 of 65 1 of 2 0 of 1 16 of 65 2 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Curtis Blaydes 19 of 42 45% 10 of 30 5 of 7 4 of 5 11 of 32 0 of 0 8 of 10
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 6 of 28 21% 5 of 25 1 of 2 0 of 1 6 of 27 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Curtis Blaydes 8 of 37 21% 5 of 32 1 of 1 2 of 4 8 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 10 of 31 32% 10 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0 8 of 29 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Curtis Blaydes 5 of 17 29% 3 of 14 0 of 0 2 of 3 5 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 2 of 9 22% 2 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Curtis Blaydes

Angelo picks Blaydes, citing his exceptional wrestling for a heavyweight, with fast entries and relentless top control. He notes that Rozenstruik is a heavy-handed counter-striker but struggles when pressured. Angelo acknowledges the risk of Blaydes getting knocked out again but believes he only needs three takedowns to win.

Angelo suggests looking at inside the distance decision no action for Rozenstruik. He says he won't bet the moneyline at -330.
"Curtis blades is my pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Curtis Blaydes

Big Brady picks Curtis Blaydes to win by first-round knockout. He notes that Rozenstruik has poor takedown defense and has been taken down easily by lesser wrestlers. Blaydes is a superior wrestler with great ground-and-pound, and Brady expects him to take Rozenstruik down and finish him. He acknowledges the heavyweight power threat but is confident in Blaydes.

first round knockout
"i'm gonna say curtis blaze does win by knockout tko in that first round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Sep 23, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Curtis Blaydes

Cody likes Blaydes' wrestling and cardio but is nervous about his history of getting knocked out by power punchers. He thinks Blaydes will grind out a decision, as Rozenstruik is durable but not likely to be finished by Blaydes. He prefers Blaydes by decision at +200 or Rozenstruik by KO at +400.

Blaydes by decision (+200), Rozenstruik by KO (+400)
"i think he gets the victory and i think if i'm trying to sweeten up a straight up curtis blaze play i think you go with him by decision"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Sep 24, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Curtis Blaydes

Daniel Levi leans with Curtis Blaydes, expecting him to attempt more takedowns than in his last fight against Derrick Lewis (0 for 3). He notes that Rozenstruik has poor takedown defense and get-up game, but also has knockout power. Levi is concerned about Blaydes' chin and the fact that he got knocked out by Lewis. He believes if Blaydes gets takedowns, he will maul Rozenstruik, but if not, Rozenstruik could catch him.

"i'll lean with blades here"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Curtis Blaydes

Jacob picks Blaydes, expecting a copy-paste of the Derrick Lewis fight. He notes Blaydes has bounced back from knockouts before and is level-headed. Jacob believes Blaydes will get takedowns and control the fight, making it boring but effective.

Jacob discusses the strike line, leaning more for Blaydes and less for Rozenstruik. He also mentions inside the distance decision no action for Rozenstruik.
"blades wins this fight it's going to be copy and paste"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2021 (fight day)
Curtis Blaydes

The host picks Curtis Blaydes by second-round TKO. He believes Blaydes will take Rozenstruik down and finish him on the ground. He notes that Blaydes learned from the Lewis fight and will shoot to the correct side. He thinks Rozenstruik's takedown defense is not good enough and that Blaydes' wrestling pedigree will be decisive. He also mentions a submission prop as a sprinkle.

Blaydes inside the distance at +120; Blaydes by submission at +1000
"i'm going blade second round tko"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Sep 23, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Curtis Blaydes

Paul picks Blaydes but is nervous about the price, noting Blaydes' history of getting knocked out. He thinks Blaydes' wrestling will be effective in a three-round fight and expects him to win, but considers Rozenstruik's power a threat. He mentions Blaydes by decision as a possible play.

Blaydes by decision (+200)
"i'll be picking curtis blades here if i had to bet uh this fight and i'm kind of nervous about it for blades in general"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 19, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Curtis Blaydes

The MMA Guru picks Curtis Blaydes over Jairzinho Rozenstruik, citing Blaydes' wrestling and size advantage. He notes that Rozenstruik is not in great shape and has poor takedown defense. He expects Blaydes to mix in takedowns with striking, take Rozenstruik down, and pound him out for a second-round TKO. He acknowledges Rozenstruik's puncher's chance but believes Blaydes wins nine times out of ten.

second round tko, prop bet on Rozenstruik first round under a minute
"i'll say second round tko for curtis blades"
WIN vs Augusto Sakai
TKO (punches) R1 4:59 · UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Sakai · Jun 05, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 1 16 of 29 55% 16 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Augusto Sakai 0 3 of 14 21% 3 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jairzinho Rozenstruik 1 16 of 29 55% 16 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Augusto Sakai 0 3 of 14 21% 3 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 16 of 29 55% 6 of 17 5 of 6 5 of 6 15 of 26 0 of 0 1 of 3
Augusto Sakai 3 of 14 21% 0 of 5 1 of 4 2 of 5 3 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jairzinho Rozenstruik 16 of 29 55% 6 of 17 5 of 6 5 of 6 15 of 26 0 of 0 1 of 3
Augusto Sakai 3 of 14 21% 0 of 5 1 of 4 2 of 5 3 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Augusto Sakai

Big Brady thinks the line should be flipped and Sakai should be favored. He notes Rozenstruik has the worst striking defense in the heavyweight division (39%) and a negative strike differential, while Sakai has higher volume and a positive differential. He believes Sakai has a good chin and can outwork Rozenstruik over five rounds, possibly getting a late finish. He acknowledges Rozenstruik's power but thinks Sakai is the better fighter.

"i'm gonna go with sakai i think sakai does get it done"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jun 2, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Augusto Sakai

Cody leans toward Sakai, noting Rozenstruik's tendency to be tentative and take too long to get going. He points out that Sakai has fast hands and good movement, and if he can improve his cardio from the Overeem fight, he could win early rounds. Cody also mentions that Rozenstruik's power is a threat but Sakai is durable. He suggests the over on rounds and that Sakai could win a decision if he doesn't fade.

over 1.5 rounds, fight starts round three -140
"i'm hoping sakai could potentially build on that i just i can't get behind rosenstruck not with my dollar"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 3, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Augusto Sakai

Daniel favors Sakai because he believes Sakai will be the one moving forward with more volume and a more well-rounded game. He notes that Sakai has a methodical Muay Thai style and good output, while Rozenstruik relies heavily on counter-fighting and one-punch knockout power. Daniel points out that Rozenstruik has been down on scorecards before (e.g., the Overeem fight) and that Sakai is the better round winner. He also mentions that Sakai has a good chin and can take a shot, making it hard for Rozenstruik to land a clean counter. Daniel predicts Sakai will win a decision or possibly by outworking Rozenstruik over five rounds.

"i gotta favor sakai here despite him being the underdog it's just really about don't get clipped with one big shot"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Augusto Sakai

Rozenstruik is a one-dimensional knockout artist who is tentative against longer fighters. Sakai has better volume and can use clinch work and takedowns to neutralize Rozenstruik's power. Sakai will win a decision.

Sakai by decision +380, over 3.5 rounds +140
"I got sakai via decision plus 390"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Jun 2, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Augusto Sakai

Paul picks Sakai as a slight underdog, citing Sakai's fast hands and movement for a heavyweight, and his volume punching. He notes Sakai's cardio failed against Overeem but hopes he has improved. Paul is hesitant because Rozenstruik has power and five-round experience, but he can't get behind Rozenstruik's low volume and slow starts. He suggests the fight starts round three as a prop.

fight starts round three -140, over 1.5 rounds, over 2.5 rounds
"gun to my head would be sakai dogger pass dogger pass close fight 50 50. i'm getting slight dog money on sakai"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 30, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Augusto Sakai

The Guru picks Augusto Sakai, expressing frustration with Rozenstruik's hesitancy and lack of urgency, especially in the Cyril Gane fight. He notes Sakai's good chin, pressure, and ability to mix kicks. He compares their fights against Overeem: Sakai was winning early before gassing, while Rozenstruik was dominated. He predicts Sakai will walk Rozenstruik down, pressure him against the cage, and get a second-round TKO via ground and pound.

TKO round 2, ground and pound
"i've got augusto sakai getting it done not to mention he's got pretty good striking defense on the feet as well"
Expert Picks (4)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 24, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

Big Brady picks Ciryl Gane to win by third-round submission. He is impressed with Gane's well-rounded skills: volume striking, body kicks, leg kicks, good cardio, wrestling, and ground game. He notes Rozenstruik's power and 91% knockout rate but believes Gane will fight smart, avoid getting hit, and take the fight to the mat where he can capitalize. He mentions Gane's 86% finish rate and that he has submissions in the UFC. He acknowledges the line at -265 is wide but thinks Gane is the better fighter.

submission in round 3
"i'm going to take cyril gone to win by third round submission"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Feb 26, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Ciryl Gane

Daniel Levi picks Ciryl Gane, citing Gane's well-rounded game and diverse striking tools like front kicks, knees, and elbows. He notes Rozenstruik's devastating counter-striking, especially the leaping left hook, but believes if Rozenstruik doesn't get an early knockout, Gane can win by decision, submission, or knockout. Levi acknowledges Rozenstruik's comeback ability but thinks Gane's versatility and range control will be decisive.

"I think that rosenstrike has a knockout potential but if he doesn't get the knockout i can see him lose by any three of the methods whether it's knockout submission or decision so i'm gonna have to go with cyril ghana"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

Gane has the best movement in the heavyweight division, fluid and smooth, able to avoid big shots. He showed great kicks and cardio against dos Santos. Rozenstruik's only path is a knockout, but Gane's movement and durability should neutralize that. Gane may also use grappling, as he has submissions and takedowns. Expect a finish via ground and pound or submission in round 3 or 4.

Gane by TKO round 3 or 4 via ground and pound; possibly submission prop if available
"i think that ghana has probably the best uh the best movement in the heavyweight division given how big he is right the guy just moves so fluently"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 21, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

The MMA Guru picks Ciryl Gane by TKO in the second or third round, citing his superior technical striking, footwork, and reach advantage. He compares both fighters' performances against Junior dos Santos, noting Gane dominated while Rozenstruik had a closer fight. He believes Gane's distance management and body kicks will be key, and that Rozenstruik's high guard will leave his body exposed. He also mentions Gane's ground game as an additional threat.

TKO, second round, body shot
"i think he's just really really good really technically good and it's not often you see technical heavyweights"