vs
-166 +145
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gane · Feb 27, 2021 · Catchweight (210.5 lb) · Completed
Prev Fight UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gane
Age 38
Height 6' 3"
Reach 76.0"
Weight 205 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 42
Height 6' 3"
Reach 78.0"
Weight 205 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Dustin Jacoby
5.4 SLpM
48.0% Str. Acc.
3.92 SApM
57.0% Str. Def.
0.32 TD Avg
25.0% TD Acc.
62.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Maxim Grishin
3.26 SLpM
52.0% Str. Acc.
2.27 SApM
58.0% Str. Def.
0.21 TD Avg
16.0% TD Acc.
66.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Dustin Jacoby
Moneyline
FanDuel -166
KO/TKO
BetWay +200
Submission
BetWay +1400
Decision
BetWay +200
Maxim Grishin
Moneyline
DraftKings +145
KO/TKO
BetWay +450
Submission
BetWay +800
Decision
BetWay +350
Dustin Jacoby - Fight History
WIN vs Julius Walker
KO R2 1:42 · UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · Feb 07, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dustin Jacoby 1 42 of 71 59% 47 of 79 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:59
Julius Walker 0 7 of 21 33% 12 of 26 3 of 7 42% 0 0 2:47
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dustin Jacoby 0 13 of 20 65% 16 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:27
Julius Walker 0 5 of 15 33% 10 of 20 3 of 6 50% 0 0 2:29
2 Dustin Jacoby 1 29 of 51 56% 31 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:32
Julius Walker 0 2 of 6 33% 2 of 6 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:18
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dustin Jacoby 42 of 71 59% 35 of 64 3 of 3 4 of 4 22 of 38 9 of 10 11 of 23
Julius Walker 7 of 21 33% 3 of 17 1 of 1 3 of 3 4 of 12 2 of 7 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dustin Jacoby 13 of 20 65% 7 of 14 3 of 3 3 of 3 13 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
Julius Walker 5 of 15 33% 3 of 13 1 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 6 2 of 7 1 of 2
2 Dustin Jacoby 29 of 51 56% 28 of 50 0 of 0 1 of 1 9 of 18 9 of 10 11 of 23
Julius Walker 2 of 6 33% 0 of 4 0 of 0 2 of 2 2 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 1, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Angelo picks Dustin Jacoby confidently, calling him too good of a striker and grappler with too much experience. He notes Jacoby's high-level kickboxing, technical striking, and solid takedown defense. He dismisses Julius Walker as sloppy and reliant on raw athleticism, and believes Jacoby will win easily. He hopes the odds are reasonable and will include Jacoby in parlays.

"Dustin Jacobe wins this fight. He's too good of a striker, too good of a grappler, has too much experience."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 1, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Big Brady picks Dustin Jacoby, citing his superior striking and elite takedown defense. He notes that Julius Walker was pieced up by Raphael Sakara on the feet, which bodes poorly against a much better striker in Jacoby. He expects Jacoby to knock out Walker, likely in the first round.

by first round knockout
"I think Jacobe knocks him out. I'm going to go into Dustin Jacobe here. I think it's a first round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Feb 4, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Cody hesitantly picks Dustin Jacoby, acknowledging the experience gap but noting Jacoby's travel and short notice. He admits his heart wants Walker but struggles to overlook Jacoby's experience. Cody does not bet on Jacoby and expects a competitive fight.

"I haven't bet Dustin Jacobe. Everything in my being tells me to bet Dustin Jacobe."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 5, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Jacobi is still dangerous with single shots and that Walker's style of walking in will give Jacobi opportunities. He thinks Jacobi will respond with offense if put in a scary situation, but the fight could be a grind. He calls it a sucky fight between two failed experiments.

Same odds discussion.
"I'm going to pick Jacobi here."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Feb 1, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Lucrative James picks Dustin Jacoby to win, citing his massive experience and striking advantage, as well as good takedown defense. However, he is hesitant due to Jacoby's age and potential chin decline. James notes that if Jacoby is an underdog, he would bet him, but he acknowledges Walker's grappling could be a threat.

"I'm gonna go with Dustin Jacobe for the win though, guys. And the reason is because he has too much of a experience advantage and a massive massive striking advantage and very good takedown defense."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 3, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

The host picks Jacoby by knockout, but notes reduced confidence due to Jacoby cornering a teammate in Australia a week before the fight. He believes Jacoby's superior striking and defensive grappling will allow him to pick Walker apart and eventually land a big shot. He expects Walker to struggle to get takedowns and be forced to strike, where Jacoby has the advantage.

knockout win
"So, give me Jacobe and Jacobe by knockout."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Feb 4, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Julius Walker

Paul picks Julius Walker as a dog, citing Jacoby's short notice, travel from Australia, and age (37). He notes Walker's youth, athleticism, and improvement, especially his wrestling. Paul believes Walker can take Jacoby down and control the fight, though he admits bias due to connections.

"I am actually going to end up taking a dog play on Julius Walker. Not super confident."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2026 (fight day)
Dustin Jacoby

The host picks Dustin Jacoby over Julius Walker. He thinks Jacoby is underrated, citing his win over Vitor Petrino and competitive fight with Azamat Murzakanov. He notes Walker looked sloppy against Rafael Cacara. He predicts a decision win for Jacoby, 29-28 or 30-27.

decision 29-28 or 30-27
"I'm going to go with Jacoby. I think he's on a level another level of experience to Julius Walker."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 5, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Zane picks Jacoby because he is a good technical kickboxer who can finish with single shots. He notes that Walker is tough but walks in with his chin up and feet flat, making him vulnerable. However, he warns that Jacoby's hesitancy could make the fight ugly, similar to his fight against Alonzo Menifield.

Jacoby opened at -135, currently -185; Walker opened at +115, currently +160.
"I'm going to pick Dustin Jacobi."
WIN vs Bruno Lopes
KO R1 1:50 · UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Barber · May 31, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dustin Jacoby 1 17 of 29 58% 17 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:30
Bruno Lopes 0 3 of 9 33% 5 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dustin Jacoby 1 17 of 29 58% 17 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:30
Bruno Lopes 0 3 of 9 33% 5 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dustin Jacoby 17 of 29 58% 16 of 28 0 of 0 1 of 1 11 of 21 6 of 8 0 of 0
Bruno Lopes 3 of 9 33% 1 of 4 1 of 2 1 of 3 2 of 7 1 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dustin Jacoby 17 of 29 58% 16 of 28 0 of 0 1 of 1 11 of 21 6 of 8 0 of 0
Bruno Lopes 3 of 9 33% 1 of 4 1 of 2 1 of 3 2 of 7 1 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 18, 2025 (13 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Angelo picks Dustin Jacoby as the better striker with good takedown defense, but plants a seed of doubt about Jacoby's ability to handle forward pressure. He notes that Jacoby was losing to Vitor Petrino before a comeback KO, and that Bruno Lopes pressures forward well. He advises caution but believes Jacoby wins.

Warns against overexposure in parlays.
"I'm going to pick Dustin here because he is the better striker and he's got very good takedown defense."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 26, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Big Brady picks Dustin Jacoby, believing Bruno Lopes is reckless on the feet and leaves openings. He notes Lopes has a path via grappling but doubts he will use it, citing Lopes' tendency to stand and trade. Jacoby has good get-up game and is hard to hold down. Brady predicts Jacoby will clip Lopes and knock him out in the first round, as Jacoby has many first-round KOs.

first round knockout
"I'll go Dustin Jacobe here. And I think it's early. I think Dustin Jacobe gets a first round knockout."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked May 29, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Bruno Lopes

Connor also picks Lopes, citing that Jacoby's chin issues have made him hesitant and his game has lost its structure. Lopes, despite being a brawler, has a clear goal and is confident in his aggression. Connor notes that Jacoby used to be able to adjust to wrestlers, but now he seems aimless, making Lopes the safer pick.

"Yeah, also that Jacoby has historically had issues with wrestlers. Yeah. And, you know, he used to be able to adjust to that and, and, and start getting a read on the takedowns and doing a better job of enforcing …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 29, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Matt picks Dustin Jacoby to win by decision. He notes that Jacoby is a volume-based striker with good takedown defense, while Lopes is a BJJ black belt who struggles against better strikers. Jacoby should outwork Lopes on the feet, though his durability is a concern. Matt likes the decision prop at +250.

Jacoby by decision +250, Lopes by decision +480, Lopes by KO +400, fight goes to decision +125
"I'm going to pick Jacobe. I I think he wins this fight."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 28, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

The MMA Guru picks Dustin Jacoby by TKO in rounds 2 or 3. He believes Jacoby's striking is too technical for Bruno Lopes, who has power but is less impressive. He notes Jacoby's good chin and ability to recover, and sees a kickboxing advantage. He predicts Jacoby will piece up Lopes after a shaky first round.

TKO in rounds 2 or 3
"I think Jacob is very underrated... I think he beats Bruno Lopez... I got Jacob by TKO in rounds two or three."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked May 29, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Bruno Lopes

Zane picks Lopes because Jacoby's game has deteriorated significantly; he no longer fights with a clear plan, hesitates, and does wacky things like switching stances needlessly. Lopes, while limited, at least has a simple game plan of aggression, either brawling or pushing to the cage and looking for takedowns. Zane notes that Jacoby historically had issues with wrestlers, and his current indecisiveness makes him vulnerable to Lopes' pressure.

"I think I have to pick Lopez. Yeah. I think I'm kind of feeling that too. He at least want his, what his game still clearly at least seems to revolve around aggression, even if that aggression is just putting …"
WIN vs Vitor Petrino
KO (punch) R3 3:44 · UFC on ESPN: Covington vs. Buckley · Dec 14, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dustin Jacoby 0 40 of 96 41% 40 of 96 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:40
Vitor Petrino 1 45 of 96 46% 47 of 100 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:20
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dustin Jacoby 0 10 of 26 38% 10 of 26 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Vitor Petrino 0 12 of 32 37% 12 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
2 Dustin Jacoby 0 19 of 47 40% 19 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Vitor Petrino 0 18 of 36 50% 18 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Dustin Jacoby 0 11 of 23 47% 11 of 23 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:38
Vitor Petrino 1 15 of 28 53% 17 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:16
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dustin Jacoby 40 of 96 41% 27 of 79 6 of 7 7 of 10 40 of 96 0 of 0 0 of 0
Vitor Petrino 45 of 96 46% 23 of 69 7 of 9 15 of 18 39 of 87 5 of 8 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dustin Jacoby 10 of 26 38% 5 of 19 2 of 2 3 of 5 10 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
Vitor Petrino 12 of 32 37% 5 of 22 1 of 2 6 of 8 8 of 25 4 of 7 0 of 0
2 Dustin Jacoby 19 of 47 40% 16 of 42 2 of 3 1 of 2 19 of 47 0 of 0 0 of 0
Vitor Petrino 18 of 36 50% 8 of 24 3 of 4 7 of 8 18 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Dustin Jacoby 11 of 23 47% 6 of 18 2 of 2 3 of 3 11 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 0
Vitor Petrino 15 of 28 53% 10 of 23 3 of 3 2 of 2 13 of 26 1 of 1 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Dec 8, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Angelo picks Petrino because he hits hard and Jacoby's chin is declining. He notes Petrino's power, evolving grappling, and takedowns, while Jacoby is a high-level kickboxer with okay power and 60% takedown defense. He expresses concern about Petrino's smiling reaction after his submission loss to Anthony Smith, but believes it was a fluke. He thinks Jacoby could turn it into a dogfight but Petrino's power is the difference.

"I am going to pick patrino here because he hits so damn hard and Dustin's chin doesn't seem to be what it once was."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Big Brady picks Vitor Petrino to win by decision. He thinks Petrino is younger, improving, and has more ways to win, including power and takedowns. He notes Jacoby has been dropped often and was recently knocked out by Reyes. He expects Petrino to mix in takedowns and land big shots, but not finish.

"I'll say patrino mixes in the takedowns maybe land some big shots here and there maybe drops jacobe because jacobe likes getting dropped but I'll say patrino does enough to win a decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Dec 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Cody picks Vitor Petrino but with low confidence, noting his poor gas tank and green technique. He believes Petrino will rely on takedowns and top control to win rounds, but Jacoby's striking advantage could be problematic. Cody suggests a live bet on Jacoby after the first round if Petrino tires.

Over 1.5 rounds (-167), fight goes to decision (+170)
"I'm willing to take the dog shot on Covington and Bruno Silva but I'm going to pass on this jacobe one."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Connor picks Jacoby as well, agreeing that Petrino's new style is ineffective. He notes that Petrino's game is 'empty' and that Jacoby is a good outboxer who can take advantage. However, Connor also worries about Jacoby's durability, citing his knockout loss to Reyes and shaky moments against Alonzo Menifield.

Jacoby opened at +212, now +254; Petrino opened at -247, now -303
"I'm picking Jacobi as well, but, uh, odd that the odds are against him."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Daniel Vreeland picks Vitor Petrino to get back on track after his loss to Anthony Smith. He acknowledges Dustin Jacoby's technical kickboxing but worries about Jacoby's durability and tendency to get hurt. Vreeland believes Petrino's freak athleticism and power can change the fight with one shot, even if he's being outpointed. He also notes Petrino can mix in takedowns if needed.

"I'm going go with vtor patrino to come out here and uh get back on track"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Dec 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Lucrative James picks Vitor Petrino to win, citing Petrino's multiple paths to victory including knockout and grappling. He notes Jacoby's kickboxing background and takedown defense, but believes Petrino's physicality and raw power will be too much. He expresses low interest in betting the fight unless prop odds are wide, but confidently predicts Petrino as the winner.

"I do think berrino wins I do think he's the better fighter I think that he's got way more ways to win."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Petrino will crash the pocket effectively and land big shots on Jacoby, who struggles against opponents with big power. The finish is expected within the first two rounds.

wins in round 1 or 2
"I do believe patrino will be able to crash the pocket effectively here and that will allow him to land those big shots on jacobe who just can't seem to get out of the way of opponents with big Power …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Dec 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Paul picks Dustin Jacoby as an underdog, citing Petrino's struggles against strikers and Jacoby's striking volume. He notes that Petrino's takedowns are his only path, but Jacoby's takedown defense and ability to get back up could neutralize that. Paul is surprised Petrino is such a big favorite.

"I'm surprised that he's such a big favorite like um there does seem to be some action coming in on the jacobe side."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked Dec 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

The MMA Guru picks Dustin Jacoby as an underdog, questioning why he is such a big underdog. He notes Jacoby's kickboxing experience and ability to invest in strikes, though he acknowledges Jacoby's chin has let him down. He believes Petrino's win over Smith was unimpressive (guillotine) and that Jacoby's layers and conditioning will give him an edge. He admits the oddsmakers might know something he doesn't.

underdog bet (implied odds comment)
"I'm going to go Dustin jacobe in his kickboxing experience being able to invest enough and do enough to patrino"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Zane picks Jacoby because Petrino has abandoned his effective bullying style for a technical out-fighting game that doesn't work. He notes that Petrino's recent losses to Anthony Smith and Tyson Pedro show he has no plan, and Jacoby should have plenty of time and space to outbox him. However, Zane is concerned about Jacoby's chin and age.

Jacoby opened at +212, now +254; Petrino opened at -247, now -303; Zane says the odds are 'too wide on Petrino'
"I'm still picking him against Vito Petrino, because Petrino's game as it stands right now is just empty."
LOSS vs Dominick Reyes
KO (punches) R1 2:00 · UFC on ESPN: Cannonier vs. Imavov · Jun 08, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dominick Reyes 2 20 of 33 60% 20 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Dustin Jacoby 0 6 of 16 37% 6 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dominick Reyes 2 20 of 33 60% 20 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Dustin Jacoby 0 6 of 16 37% 6 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dominick Reyes 20 of 33 60% 15 of 26 3 of 4 2 of 3 16 of 24 2 of 3 2 of 6
Dustin Jacoby 6 of 16 37% 1 of 7 0 of 1 5 of 8 6 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dominick Reyes 20 of 33 60% 15 of 26 3 of 4 2 of 3 16 of 24 2 of 3 2 of 6
Dustin Jacoby 6 of 16 37% 1 of 7 0 of 1 5 of 8 6 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 7, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Angelo picks Dustin Jacoby, believing Dominick Reyes is done after three knockout losses. He notes that Reyes hasn't won in years and his chin is compromised. Jacoby is a high-level kickboxer who can outpoint Reyes. He thinks the sport has passed Reyes by, and Jacoby's technical striking will be too much.

"I think Dustin jacobe wins this fight while he is a very high level technical kickboxer"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Big Brady picks Dustin Jacoby to win by decision with little confidence. He questions whether Dominick Reyes is washed, noting his losses to Jon Jones, Jan Blachowicz, and Jiri Prochazka are not bad, but the Ryan Spann KO is concerning. He thinks Jacoby might be the minute winner but has been disappointing in fights like the Menifield loss. He calls it a total pass and advises against betting.

"I'm taking Dustin jacobe to win this fight I'll take him to Win It by decision but I want nothing to do with this one"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Dominick Reyes

Cody picks Reyes as a greasy underdog, noting that Reyes has faced elite competition and his four-fight losing streak includes fights against Jon Jones (arguably a win), Jan Błachowicz, and Jiri Prochazka. He believes Reyes' power and durability could be a problem for Jacoby, who is a decision fighter prone to close losses. Cody thinks the year and a half off may have helped Reyes recover his chin, and he expects a close fight that could go Reyes' way via split decision.

Dominick Reyes to win by split or majority decision
"I have to take a couple greasy dogs and Rees is one of those greasy dogs so I'll take Dom Rees and just hope to God that the year off the couple years off the time off I should say …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Daniel is confident in Jacoby because he believes Reyes has never recovered mentally or physically from the Jon Jones fight, citing three brutal knockout losses and a diminished chin. He notes Jacoby is still competitive with top fighters and can point fight or knock out Reyes. He expects Jacoby to win by knockout, as Reyes' confidence is shattered.

knockout
"I think uh I think jacobe actually comes out here and knocks him out"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jun 7, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Jacob picks Dustin Jacoby, but he is rooting for Reyes. He thinks Jacoby's jab will wear down Reyes, who has a suspect chin. He notes that Jacoby isn't the most powerful, but his jab can set up a knockout. He warns that Reyes might get too comfortable and get caught. He expects Jacoby to win by decision or late stoppage.

"I think that jab is eventually just going to wear down Dominic ryes I'm going be rooting for him man I hope he comes through"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Jacoby is a technical striker with good range and output, while Reyes has durability issues and a long layoff. Jacoby should outland Reyes from distance and may knock him out, though Reyes has power of his own. The -225 line is a bit wide, but Jacoby by KO is the pick.

knockout
"I'm going to lean jacobe here minus 225 just makes me a little bit queasy... I'm going to lean Jobe by knockout"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Paul is tempted to bet Reyes but lacks the courage to pull the trigger. He notes Reyes' three consecutive knockout losses and questions his chin, while Jacoby tends to be in close fights. Paul thinks it's a pass from a betting perspective but might change his mind after weigh-ins.

"I am tempted to bet Dominic Reyes but like for what purpose like he's he's obviously shown that you know Ryan span knocking him out in the first round that's the other guys Yuri and and yon bovic two guys …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

The Guru says you can't pick Reyes until he proves you wrong, citing his losing streak and the damage he took from Yuri (orbital fracture, shattered nose). He likes Jacoby in a three-rounder because Reyes lacks finishing potential and is coming off TKO losses. He expects Jacoby to get started sooner, landing low kicks, jabs, and body shots, and win a decision (29-28 or 30-27). He also notes Jacoby beat Khalil Rountree in his eyes.

Decision win prediction; mentions 29-28 or 30-27 scorecards
"you can't pick Reyes until he proves you wrong... I'm going to say that jacobe wins a decision"
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · Dec 16, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alonzo Menifield 1 68 of 117 58% 95 of 145 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:03
Dustin Jacoby 0 93 of 150 62% 113 of 171 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:08
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alonzo Menifield 0 14 of 30 46% 25 of 41 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:27
Dustin Jacoby 0 28 of 44 63% 38 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:17
2 Alonzo Menifield 0 27 of 48 56% 28 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Dustin Jacoby 0 31 of 55 56% 31 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Alonzo Menifield 1 27 of 39 69% 42 of 54 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:35
Dustin Jacoby 0 34 of 51 66% 44 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:51
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alonzo Menifield 68 of 117 58% 58 of 104 2 of 4 8 of 9 51 of 94 14 of 20 3 of 3
Dustin Jacoby 93 of 150 62% 69 of 122 15 of 18 9 of 10 78 of 135 15 of 15 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alonzo Menifield 14 of 30 46% 14 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0 12 of 25 2 of 5 0 of 0
Dustin Jacoby 28 of 44 63% 16 of 32 9 of 9 3 of 3 22 of 38 6 of 6 0 of 0
2 Alonzo Menifield 27 of 48 56% 20 of 39 0 of 1 7 of 8 25 of 44 2 of 4 0 of 0
Dustin Jacoby 31 of 55 56% 25 of 46 1 of 4 5 of 5 29 of 53 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Alonzo Menifield 27 of 39 69% 24 of 35 2 of 3 1 of 1 14 of 25 10 of 11 3 of 3
Dustin Jacoby 34 of 51 66% 28 of 44 5 of 5 1 of 2 27 of 44 7 of 7 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Dustin Jacoby vs. Alonzo Menifield
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Jacoby (-270), Menifield (+220)

Round 1
The preliminary headliner has changed on fight week, and it will now come between two light heavyweight strikers in what could be a real barnburner. Menifield (14-3-1, 7-3-1 UFC) is looking to push his unbeaten streak to five, and Jacoby (19-7-1, 7-4-1 UFC) wants to string some momentum together to make another run up the ladder. Referee Chris Tognoni dons his proverbial hard hat as these two men will be swinging with bad intentions for as long as it lasts. Before they swing for the fences, the 205ers bump their gloves together while nodding in excitement. Both men are cautious to engage for the first 25 seconds, until Menifield wings two hooks that both come up short. Menifield reaches out with a jab, and Jacoby answers him with one of his own. Menifield again misses with an overhand right, and Jacoby prods out a few more jabs to keep the power swinging Menifield at bay. Jacoby kicks the inside thigh and loops a left hand around the guard, and he ducks away from a huge strike from Menifield. Jacoby stays busy with jabs and leg kicks, and he keeps his guard high to block the worst of the blows. Menifield scores a single left hook, and Jacoby puts his foot on the gas and gives chase. Menifield just misses a right hand that bumps into the chest, and he swings for the bleachers with wide, inaccurate punches. Jacoby sees the majority of those home run strikes coming and is able to block or evade them, and he crowds Menifield until Menifield sprints at him in search of a takedown. Jacoby tosses him to the side and allows Menifield to stand back up, and he just blocks a left hook. Jacoby rings Menifield’s bell with a right hand, and he gets stung with a counter. Jacoby crowds his man, and Menifield welcomes the clinch and tries to turn him around or throw him to the floor. Jacoby stays on his feet and knees the body, as the two jockey for position from up close. Jacoby continues to press his weight on his opponent, and Menifield eventually turns him around and lands a single right hook. Jacoby does not like this, lines up a knee down the middle, and the slow round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Jacoby
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Jacoby
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Jacoby

Round 2
The 205ers meet in the middle with a glove touch, and Jacoby gets right back into his jabbing groove. Menifield gets tired of playing the jab and miss game, and he bites down on his mouthpiece and drives out a straight left that blasts Jacoby in the face. Jacoby stumbles from one side of the cage to the other, but he manages to gather his thoughts when ricocheting off the fence before Menifield can pounce. Jacoby recovers, but Menifield drives home two fierce leg kicks that give him pause. Jacoby lands a few jabs, and Menifield tries his own and lands a leg kick on the inside. Jacoby takes the left hand flush and is no worse for wear, and he parries a second. Menifield cracks the former Glory kickboxer with a right hand, stunning him but not putting him down. Jacoby hands on tight and hurts Menifield with a counter. Menifield shakes it off and crashes forward, landing blazing hooks on the side of the head and making Jacoby briefly rethink his life decision leading to that point. Jacoby tries to fire back, but Menifield is on him throwing merciless punches. Jacoby bounces off the cage and looks to settle down with his rangy jab, but Menifield has found his range and connects with effective counters. Jacoby snaps the head back with a jab, and Menifield backpedals as his right eye begins to swell. Jacoby kicks low, and Menifield returns fire with a far heavier blow that force a stance switch. Jacoby whiffs on a head kick but rifles a jab down the middle, and Menifield dodges a follow-up punch and grazes the side of the head with a left hook. The two clash shins together, and Jacoby gets the worse of it. Jacoby attacks, and Menifield meets him with his own punches until the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Menifield
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Menifield
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Jacoby

Round 3
There is a final glove touch to begin the last round. Jacoby flashes out a leg kick, and Menifield is right there to counter him. Jacoby lines up several jabs, and Menifield dodges to the side to avoid most of them but not all. Menifield comes back with an overhand right, and he hops away to avoid a leg kick. Menifield loads up on a big left hook, and Jacoby tanks it and prods out a front kick. Jacoby snipes his man with a one-two, and when Menifield comes up short, Jacoby lands another. Menifield draws his foe into a short firefight, and he bangs a left hook off the temple of “The Hanyak.” Jacoby skillfully lands jab after jab, busting Menifield’s nose up and connecting in great numbers. Menifield gets sick of eating those punches, and he knocks Jacoby clean off his feet with a thunderous left hook. Jacoby falls to his seat, and Menifield tries to seal the deal with several clubbing undercuts beneath Jacoby’s armpit. Jacoby muscles his way back to his feet, and Menifield beats on him with a long series of punches and uppercuts. Jacoby tries to fire back, and Menifield drops down and hits a takedown to put the former kickboxer on his seat. Menifield connects with several jackhammering punches until Jacoby forces Menifield to fall off him and explode back up. The two stay tight in the clinch, and Jacoby considers a takedown that is thwarted. Menifield turns the tables, dropping down for a single, and he bails on it when Tognoni tells him to stay busy. Jacoby looks for inside or outside trips, and Menifield keeps his balance with his back to the wire. Menifield turns him around and knees him in the belly, and he gains enough space to wing a right hand that hurts Jacoby. Menifield gives chase and clubs Jacoby in the face with a pair of hooks, and the bloody battle comes to a conclusion when time expires.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Menifield (29-28 Menifield)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Menifield (29-28 Menifield)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Menifield (29-28 Jacoby)

The Official Result
Alonzo Menifield def. Dustin Jacoby via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Dec 10, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Angelo leans Dustin Jacoby due to his superior kickboxing, noting he was once ranked #2 in the world. He acknowledges Menifield's power and Jacoby's recent vulnerability to being dropped, but believes the technical striking advantage will prevail. He is undecided on betting.

Undecided on betting; concerned about Menifield's power
"I'm gonna lean jacobe here... Dustin's going to be the pick I'm still deciding if I trust him enough to bet"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 13, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Big Brady picks Dustin Jacoby to win by decision, citing Jacoby's advantages in age, height, striking volume, and cardio. He notes Menifield's inconsistency and poor performances, and believes Menifield's only path is a knockout, which is unlikely given Jacoby's chin (only 1 KO loss in 27 fights). Brady expects Jacoby to use his kicks and volume to outpoint Menifield over three rounds, similar to his fight against Khalil Rountree.

"I'm kind of leaning more towards a decision here for Dustin jacobe though I think he plays this fight smart sticks to the outside use his kicks us his volume and just picks apart Alonzo manafield across 15 minutes"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 14, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Cody picks Jacoby, agreeing that he is the better striker with superior cardio. He notes that Menifield's wins are over lower-level competition and that Jacoby has fought at a higher level. Cody believes Jacoby will outwork Menifield and potentially get a late TKO or decision. He acknowledges the risk of Menifield's power but thinks Jacoby's volume and experience will prevail.

"Justin job's fighting at a higher level he appears to have the better skill set he has the better cardio it's Striker versus Striker and he's a better Striker yeah he's the pick"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Dec 12, 2023 (4 days before fight)

Lucrative James does not have a strong read on this fight. He feels Dustin Jacoby should win by decision, but he has a nagging feeling that Alonzo Menifield could catch him early with power. He considers it a pass fight, though he mentions that Menifield inside the distance at big odds might be worth a small play.

Maybe Alonzo KO at +700 or similar.
"I don't feel like I mean I don't feel like Dustin will really finish Manfield though... that's a pass fight for me."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

The host picks Jacoby but thinks the minus 270 line is too wide against a dangerous fighter like Menifield. He praises Jacoby's technical striking, footwork, and precision, and believes he can keep Menifield at bay with kicks and combinations. He notes that Menifield has improved his cardio and clinch work but still expects Jacoby to outpoint him. He suggests a nibble on Jacoby by decision prop.

Jacoby by decision
"I'm still going to go with jacobe here though the minus 270 too wide I'm I'm going to I'm going to pass on that line um I might take a nibble on jacobe by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 14, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Paul picks Jacoby, stating that the price looks better than other big favorites on the card. He notes that Jacoby is a better striker with Glory kickboxing experience and has remarkable cardio. He believes Menifield will start hot but fade, and Jacoby will dissect him with volume and potentially get a late TKO or decision. Paul acknowledges Menifield's power but thinks Jacoby's skill set is superior.

"I'm on the camp with Dustin jacobe here and I think the price looked a lot better earlier in the week"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

The Guru picks Dustin Jacoby over Alonzo Menifield, calling Jacoby one of the most underrated light heavyweights. He highlights Jacoby's impressive wins (e.g., Khalil Rountree, Anthony Smith) and takedown defense. He argues that if Menifield couldn't finish Jimmy Crute on the feet, he won't finish Jacoby. He predicts Jacoby will pick Menifield apart and win by decision or TKO.

Jacoby by decision (30-27) or TKO in round 2
"I'm going with Dustin Jacob I think he's one of the most underrated like heavyweights that's on the roster right now... I'm definitely going to go if Jacob be picking apart Alonzo manyfield and maybe getting a TKO at some …"
TKO (punches) R1 1:22 · UFC on ESPN: Sandhagen vs. Font · Aug 05, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dustin Jacoby 1 10 of 33 30% 10 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Kennedy Nzechukwu 0 4 of 18 22% 4 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dustin Jacoby 1 10 of 33 30% 10 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Kennedy Nzechukwu 0 4 of 18 22% 4 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dustin Jacoby 10 of 33 30% 5 of 28 0 of 0 5 of 5 10 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 7
Kennedy Nzechukwu 4 of 18 22% 3 of 14 0 of 3 1 of 1 4 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dustin Jacoby 10 of 33 30% 5 of 28 0 of 0 5 of 5 10 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 7
Kennedy Nzechukwu 4 of 18 22% 3 of 14 0 of 3 1 of 1 4 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jul 30, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

Angelo picks Kennedy Nzechukwu despite acknowledging Dustin Jacoby is the better striker. He notes that Kennedy is bigger, more dangerous, and has fought higher competition. He warns that Kennedy is never out of a fight and can come from behind, but also mentions that Jacoby was dropped in his last fight, which is concerning. Angelo admits he would love Jacoby as an underdog if not for that, but ultimately goes with Kennedy's danger factor.

"the pick's gonna be Kennedy but I'm going to be rooting for Dustin"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Aug 1, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

Big Brady is uncertain but leans toward Nzechukwu. He argues that if Nzechukwu strikes with Jacoby he'll lose, but his path to victory is wrestling. He notes Nzechukwu's takedown defense is good and his grappling has improved, as seen in recent fights. He thinks Nzechukwu can take Jacoby down and control him, especially since Jacoby has been taken down many times before. He predicts a decision win but admits Nzechukwu fights are hard to predict.

Nzechukwu by decision
"I'll pick him to win by decision but the more I think about this one the more I don't feel amazing about it"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Aug 2, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

Cody leans towards Nzechukwu on the moneyline, but his main interest is a small poke on Kennedy by submission at +950. He believes Kennedy will rely on grappling and can submit Jacoby, who has faced few grapplers. He notes Jacoby's kickboxing base and cardio, but thinks Kennedy's improvements in grappling and size could be decisive.

Kennedy by submission +950 (small poke)
"I see like a plus 950 on Kennedy by sub... I'm probably gonna take a little small poke on that"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Aug 2, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

Daniel Levi leans toward Kennedy Nzechukwu but is not confident. He acknowledges Jacoby's striking credentials and past success, but worries about Jacoby's age (35-36) and potential decline. Levi notes Nzechukwu's physical advantages (7-inch reach, southpaw) and his knack for comebacks, but also his slow starts and durability concerns. He sees this as a dog-or-pass situation and prefers Nzechukwu at the current price, though he would have picked Jacoby two years ago.

Mentions that he would take a comeback at dog odds but not at -150. No specific prop bet.
"I'm gonna lean Kennedy but it's a tough fight."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Aug 4, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

James changed his mind after tape. He thinks Nzechukwu is younger, more athletic, and on an upward trajectory while Jacoby is declining. Nzechukwu's height and reach advantage will disrupt Jacoby's outside kickboxing game. He expects Nzechukwu to force pressure, clinch, and possibly finish inside the distance.

inside the distance
"I think Kennedy will win this fight... probably even inside the distance."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 4, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Jacoby loves combination striking, leg kicks, and body work. He had a 6-1-1 run until a split decision loss to Khalil Rountree and a bad KO loss. If he can stay safe and not get dropped, he should outpoint Nzechukwu, who is explosive but wears down. Jacoby's durability is a concern, but I'm sticking with Jacoby as a dog shot. He wins by decision.

"I'm going to stick with Jacoby here's the dog shot I think he's worth the play here"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Aug 2, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Paul takes Jacoby at plus money, citing his volume, leg kicks, and takedown defense. He notes Kennedy's suspect cardio and tendency to get rocked, and believes Jacoby can outland him in a kickboxing match. However, he acknowledges Jacoby's fights are often close decisions and only takes him at plus money.

"I'll take a dog poke here at Dustin Jacoby at the slight plus money"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 1, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

The host picks Kennedy Nzechukwu, citing his youth (31), durability, and recent momentum. He believes Nzechukwu will out-volume Jacoby and has a granite chin. He notes Jacoby is 35 and coming off a loss. He thinks Nzechukwu wins by decision but could finish. He warns that if the line goes above -165, value shifts to Jacoby.

line opened -126, now -156; suggests decision win for Nzechukwu; value on Jacoby if line exceeds -165
"I gotta lean Kennedy and shaku in the spot"
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Holloway vs. Allen · Apr 15, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Azamat Murzakanov 0 64 of 131 48% 96 of 167 1 of 6 16% 0 0 3:06
Dustin Jacoby 1 67 of 127 52% 70 of 130 1 of 5 20% 0 0 0:16
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Azamat Murzakanov 0 19 of 39 48% 19 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dustin Jacoby 0 25 of 50 50% 25 of 50 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:12
2 Azamat Murzakanov 0 21 of 40 52% 37 of 56 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:17
Dustin Jacoby 1 26 of 45 57% 29 of 48 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:04
3 Azamat Murzakanov 0 24 of 52 46% 40 of 72 1 of 5 20% 0 0 1:49
Dustin Jacoby 0 16 of 32 50% 16 of 32 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Azamat Murzakanov 64 of 131 48% 36 of 95 8 of 12 20 of 24 60 of 126 4 of 5 0 of 0
Dustin Jacoby 67 of 127 52% 51 of 110 12 of 13 4 of 4 64 of 122 3 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Azamat Murzakanov 19 of 39 48% 8 of 24 2 of 4 9 of 11 19 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dustin Jacoby 25 of 50 50% 20 of 44 4 of 5 1 of 1 25 of 48 0 of 2 0 of 0
2 Azamat Murzakanov 21 of 40 52% 12 of 27 2 of 4 7 of 9 20 of 39 1 of 1 0 of 0
Dustin Jacoby 26 of 45 57% 20 of 39 5 of 5 1 of 1 24 of 43 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Azamat Murzakanov 24 of 52 46% 16 of 44 4 of 4 4 of 4 21 of 48 3 of 4 0 of 0
Dustin Jacoby 16 of 32 50% 11 of 27 3 of 3 2 of 2 15 of 31 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 9, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Angelo picks Dustin Jacoby as the better technical striker, noting he was ranked 2nd in the world in kickboxing. However, he is not betting because Jacoby lacks power and Murzakanov hits very hard and has comeback KO power. He expects Jacoby to need to point-fight perfectly for 15 minutes to win, which is risky.

"Dustin's gonna be the pick but I'm not gonna bet him because he's gonna have to point fight his way to a win here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Big Brady picks Dustin Jacoby to win by decision. He cites Jacoby's size, reach, and volume advantages, as well as his good takedown defense and chin. He doubts Murzakanov's cardio and ability to take Jacoby down, and believes Jacoby will outpoint him over three rounds. He notes Murzakanov's power but thinks Jacoby can absorb it.

"give me a Dustin Jacoby to win this fight give me Dustin Jacoby to win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Cody notes Murzakanov is a first-round finisher but low volume, while Jacoby throws high volume (120+ strikes). He thinks Jacoby's reach and cardio will be key, and that Murzakanov's power shots may not be enough to overcome Jacoby's output. He prefers to bet Jacoby live after the first round.

Live bet after first round
"I would take Justin Jacoby but these are big boys that are going to be largely in a striking Affair"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 13, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Connor also picks Jacoby, agreeing that Murzakanov's power-punching style is ill-suited for Jacoby's rangey, technical approach. He notes that Jacoby is durable and has only been knocked out by elite punchers like King Mo and Alex Pereira. Connor believes Murzakanov's lack of combination punching and setup will leave him vulnerable to Jacoby's consistent output and counter-striking.

"I came to the same conclusion. I'm just not that impressed with Azamat Murzakanov."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Jacoby's range, footwork, and kicks will keep Murzakanov at distance. Murzakanov's cardio and wrestling are questionable, and he tends to fade. Jacoby's disciplined striking and cardio advantage should lead to a clear decision victory. Murzakanov is difficult to finish, so expect a full 15 minutes.

Fight goes to decision
"I think we see Dustin Jacoby control his fight pretty easily from his kicks and utilizing his range and his height Advantage."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Paul sides with Jacoby's volume and reach advantage (5 inches). He notes Murzakanov may be undersized at 205 and that Jacoby's output should overwhelm him. He agrees with Cody that the live market may offer better value.

"I'll side with the volume again I'm going to decide with the the numbers and Jacoby's got a five inch reach advantage"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

The MMA Guru picks Dustin Jacoby to win by unanimous decision, citing Jacoby's length, footwork, and striking output. He warns Jacoby must avoid a war and use leg kicks from the outside to outpoint Murzakanov, who has fight-ending power but slow starts. He notes the -190 line is a bit high and would prefer -170, but still sides with Jacoby.

Jacoby wins by decision
"Dustin Jacoby will be the pick"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 13, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Zane picks Jacoby, citing his volume, durability, and technical kickboxing as too much for Murzakanov. He notes that Murzakanov is a one-dimensional power puncher who relies on timing and rhythm changes, but Jacoby's jab, kicks, and counter-punching will keep him at range. Zane also points out that Murzakanov's wins have come against lower-level competition, while Jacoby has proven himself against tougher opponents like Khalil Rountree.

"I think Jacoby's volume here carries the day."
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Allen · Oct 29, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Khalil Rountree Jr. 0 120 of 255 47% 122 of 257 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:05
Dustin Jacoby 0 85 of 237 35% 88 of 241 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Khalil Rountree Jr. 0 34 of 66 51% 35 of 67 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Dustin Jacoby 0 20 of 57 35% 22 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Khalil Rountree Jr. 0 39 of 105 37% 40 of 106 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Dustin Jacoby 0 35 of 88 39% 36 of 89 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Khalil Rountree Jr. 0 47 of 84 55% 47 of 84 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Dustin Jacoby 0 30 of 92 32% 30 of 92 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Khalil Rountree Jr. 120 of 255 47% 69 of 194 27 of 34 24 of 27 116 of 250 4 of 5 0 of 0
Dustin Jacoby 85 of 237 35% 49 of 193 18 of 23 18 of 21 80 of 231 5 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Khalil Rountree Jr. 34 of 66 51% 12 of 38 12 of 16 10 of 12 34 of 66 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dustin Jacoby 20 of 57 35% 11 of 44 3 of 4 6 of 9 19 of 55 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Khalil Rountree Jr. 39 of 105 37% 30 of 93 5 of 7 4 of 5 39 of 105 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dustin Jacoby 35 of 88 39% 20 of 72 7 of 8 8 of 8 35 of 88 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Khalil Rountree Jr. 47 of 84 55% 27 of 63 10 of 11 10 of 10 43 of 79 4 of 5 0 of 0
Dustin Jacoby 30 of 92 32% 18 of 77 8 of 11 4 of 4 26 of 88 4 of 4 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Oct 25, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Khalil Rountree Jr.

Big Brady picks Khalil Rountree Jr. to win by knockout, but admits it's a tough fight to call due to Rountree's inconsistency. He notes that if the best version of Rountree shows up, he can knock out Jacoby, who has been dropped before. He mentions the smaller cage favors Rountree's pressure. However, he acknowledges that Jacoby is the better striker and could easily outpoint Rountree if the inconsistent version appears.

Rountree wins by knockout
"give me round three to pull off the upset and knock out Dustin Jacoby in this matchup"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 26, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Cody picks Dustin Jacoby, citing his Glory kickboxing experience, superior cardio, and technical striking. He notes that Jacoby has shown durability (surviving knockdowns against Max Grisham) and should win on volume if he doesn't get knocked out. Cody acknowledges Khalil Rountree's power and potential but believes Jacoby's kickboxing skills will prevail in a 15-minute striking battle.

"I mean that practical fight kind of leaves me to believe that like Jacoby at -160 doesn't seem like a Bad Bet"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Oct 26, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Daniel Levi picks Dustin Jacoby, citing his consistency, kickboxing experience (Glory), and titanium plate in his forearm that adds power. He acknowledges Khalil Rountree's knockout power and inconsistency, but trusts Jacoby's process. He is not betting due to the risk of Rountree's power, but picks Jacoby to win.

"Give me Jacoby For the Win not interested in betting it but my pick will be Jacoby."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Jacob is confident in Dustin Jacoby, calling him a real deal striker with great kickboxing. He acknowledges Rountree's power and inconsistency but believes technique wins. Jacoby can defend takedowns and should outpoint Rountree, though he admits bias.

"my official pick for this matchup is my dude Dustin Jacoby"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 27, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Jacoby's disciplined striking, footwork, and distance management will neutralize Rountree's power. Rountree's confidence is high but he struggles against technical strikers. Jacoby has more paths to victory and should win a decision. A small one-unit bet on Jacoby is recommended.

Jacoby by decision
"I like the favorite here I think it's a perfectly priced fight I don't mind a small shot here on uh Jacoby to even just win one unit"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 26, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Khalil Rountree Jr.

Paul is tempted by Khalil Rountree as a plus-money underdog, noting his sheer power and aggression. He mentions that when Rountree is in shape and motivated (as seen against Modestas Bukauskas and Karl Roberson), he can be dangerous. Paul says he needs to see the weigh-ins and dig into Rountree's personal life before deciding, but considers Rountree the most live underdog on the card.

"I'm super nervous on this one like uh in terms of which Underdog have we talked about so far that I would like the most is cool around tree listen if you're gonna give him plus money with what he …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

The MMA Guru picks Dustin Jacoby over Khalil Rountree, noting that Rountree's wins are against low-level opponents and he lost to Marcin Prachnio, who Jacoby should outperform. He highlights Jacoby's kickboxing credentials, reach, and chin, and believes Jacoby will fight on the outside, avoid Rountree's power, and win by 30-27 decision. He expects Rountree to have moments but fade.

"I'm gonna go if Dustin Jacob be winning this fight by a 30-27 decision"
Maxim Grishin - Fight History
LOSS vs Philipe Lins
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Kara-France vs. Albazi · Jun 03, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Philipe Lins 0 45 of 106 42% 50 of 113 1 of 3 33% 0 0 8:24
Maxim Grishin 0 41 of 80 51% 103 of 145 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:36
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Philipe Lins 0 17 of 42 40% 21 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:02
Maxim Grishin 0 16 of 29 55% 27 of 40 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:24
2 Philipe Lins 0 12 of 33 36% 12 of 35 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:40
Maxim Grishin 0 14 of 30 46% 36 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
3 Philipe Lins 0 16 of 31 51% 17 of 32 0 of 1 0% 0 0 3:42
Maxim Grishin 0 11 of 21 52% 40 of 52 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:05
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Philipe Lins 45 of 106 42% 22 of 74 17 of 21 6 of 11 36 of 92 9 of 14 0 of 0
Maxim Grishin 41 of 80 51% 20 of 53 6 of 11 15 of 16 29 of 65 12 of 15 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Philipe Lins 17 of 42 40% 7 of 27 8 of 10 2 of 5 14 of 38 3 of 4 0 of 0
Maxim Grishin 16 of 29 55% 8 of 19 2 of 3 6 of 7 13 of 26 3 of 3 0 of 0
2 Philipe Lins 12 of 33 36% 5 of 24 5 of 6 2 of 3 9 of 29 3 of 4 0 of 0
Maxim Grishin 14 of 30 46% 4 of 16 3 of 7 7 of 7 9 of 24 5 of 6 0 of 0
3 Philipe Lins 16 of 31 51% 10 of 23 4 of 5 2 of 3 13 of 25 3 of 6 0 of 0
Maxim Grishin 11 of 21 52% 8 of 18 1 of 1 2 of 2 7 of 15 4 of 6 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Maxim Grishin

Angelo picks Maxim Grishin to win, citing Grishin's calculated striking and ability to rush in when he sees an opening. He notes that Lins is hittable and looked slow in his last knockout win, despite having power and a BJJ black belt. Angelo is concerned about Grishin's takedown defense (taken down 7 times in 4 fights) but still favors Grishin's striking. He is not betting this fight.

"I do think Maxim Christian's gonna win this fight I said that two weeks ago I still feel that way"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Maxim Grishin

Cody picks Grishin, agreeing with Paul. He notes Grishin's volume and cardio should win a boring decision. Cody mentions Grishin's chin has held up and that Lins hasn't shown anything to worry him. He also notes Grishin's withdrawals against Jailton Almeida were good management. Cody expects a low-output fight where Grishin outpoints Lins.

"Christian's chin holds up and I think he just wins this fight on volume in a kind of boring uh three rounds light heavyweight fight"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Jun 3, 2023 (fight day)
Philipe Lins

Connor picks Lins, favoring his dynamic power and ability to end fights suddenly. He notes that Grishin, while difficult to finish, is low-output and often gets outworked. Connor believes Lins' swarming style and improved confidence at light heavyweight could overwhelm Grishin, especially if he lands early. He acknowledges the risk but prefers the chaotic power puncher over the safe neutralizer.

"I'm gonna pick lien's i'm glad I got i'm glad you picked grishan"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 1, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Maxim Grishin

Daniel leans Grishin, citing his experience and ability to stifle opponents. He notes that Lins has chin issues and has gassed in fights, while Grishin is a solid, tough guy to look good against. He doesn't rule out a finish from Grishin but sees a decision as likely. He calls it a pass from a betting perspective.

"I lean towards Grisham but not enough to plant my flag or or bet anything in this spot"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Philipe Lins

Jacob picks Philipe Lins, believing Lins' volume and activity will win a decision. He thinks Lins has looked good at 205 and trusts his pressure, while Grishin fights like a slow, methodical heavyweight. Jacob acknowledges Lins is hittable and could get knocked out, but in a decision he favors Lins. He notes Lins' takedowns aren't great and Grishin can wrestle, but still picks Lins as a slight dog.

"I'm picking Felipe lens because I believe he has the volume in the activity to win this fight I think it's going to be decision fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Maxim Grishin

Grishin is the better overall fighter and better suited for 205 pounds. He can survive Lins' early attacks, then use clinch, grappling, and volume to win by decision. The line dropped from -180 to -130, which is an overcorrection that provides value.

"I'm going to take advantage of that marketing correction here or that over correction I should say uh and take the maximum minus 130."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Maxim Grishin

Paul picks Grishin, citing his better volume and cardio. He notes Lins is untrustworthy and has low output. Paul expects a 15-minute sparring match where Grishin lands the better shots. He acknowledges Grishin's 16-month layoff and age (39) but thinks his chin and submission defense hold up. Paul is not heavily invested but picks Grishin.

"Maxim Christian I would much rather bet maximum Christian in fact that is going to be the official pick here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 29, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Maxim Grishin

The MMA Guru picks Maxim Grishin over Philipe Lins, citing Grishin's higher level of experience and tougher opponents. He notes that Grishin has fought the best in the division, including Dustin Jacoby (which he arguably should have won), and has a reach advantage. He also mentions Lins' history of failed weight cuts and canceled fights, and questions the quality of Lins' wins over OSP and Prachnio. The Guru believes Grishin's experience at a high level will be the deciding factor.

"I am going to be going with Maxim Grisham here I think he has a lot more experience at a high level"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Jun 3, 2023 (fight day)
Maxim Grishin

Zane picks Grishin reluctantly, citing his neutralizing style and ability to avoid being overwhelmed. He notes that Lins is a wild brawler with no structure, and Grishin's low-output, subtractive approach should allow him to tie Lins up and control the fight. Zane acknowledges Grishin is boring and unimpressive, but believes his technical skills and experience will stifle Lins' chaos.

"I'll take gration. I guess because i'm a boring guy"
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker 2 · Feb 12, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Maxim Grishin 0 21 of 68 30% 32 of 79 3 of 9 33% 0 0 2:37
William Knight 0 69 of 89 77% 88 of 112 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:27
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Maxim Grishin 0 8 of 19 42% 8 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
William Knight 0 27 of 33 81% 27 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Maxim Grishin 0 5 of 26 19% 7 of 28 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:44
William Knight 0 25 of 32 78% 31 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:09
3 Maxim Grishin 0 8 of 23 34% 17 of 32 2 of 5 40% 0 0 1:53
William Knight 0 17 of 24 70% 30 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:18
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Maxim Grishin 21 of 68 30% 9 of 39 5 of 13 7 of 16 16 of 63 5 of 5 0 of 0
William Knight 69 of 89 77% 16 of 32 21 of 24 32 of 33 62 of 81 3 of 4 4 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Maxim Grishin 8 of 19 42% 0 of 4 4 of 7 4 of 8 8 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
William Knight 27 of 33 81% 1 of 6 6 of 6 20 of 21 27 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Maxim Grishin 5 of 26 19% 3 of 15 0 of 5 2 of 6 5 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
William Knight 25 of 32 78% 7 of 12 10 of 12 8 of 8 22 of 29 1 of 1 2 of 2
3 Maxim Grishin 8 of 23 34% 6 of 20 1 of 1 1 of 2 3 of 18 5 of 5 0 of 0
William Knight 17 of 24 70% 8 of 14 5 of 6 4 of 4 13 of 19 2 of 3 2 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Maxim Grishin

Angelo picks Grishin because Knight is on short notice and may lack the cardio to push his usual pace. He thinks Knight will come out explosive in the first round, then fade, allowing Grishin to take over. He notes that a full-camp Knight would be his pick, but under these circumstances, Grishin is the choice. He suggests live betting to monitor Knight's cardio.

live betting
"the pick under these circumstances is maxim grisham"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Maxim Grishin

Big Brady is impressed with Grishin's well-rounded game, noting his striking and takedown defense are solid. He criticizes Knight's 36% striking defense and 45% takedown defense, and notes Knight is coming in on short notice. Brady believes Grishin can expose these weaknesses, either by taking Knight down or knocking him out. He picks Grishin to win by second or third round knockout, but acknowledges Knight has power and could win.

Grishin by second or third round knockout
"i think grisham gets it done here... by like a second or third round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Feb 9, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Maxim Grishin

Cody picks Grishin but is not fully confident. He notes Grishin is inconsistent but looked good against Jacoby. He thinks Knight could land a big shot but Grishin should win on volume and technique.

"the pick will be grisham low lower down lower down"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Feb 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
William Knight

Daniel Levi leans toward William Knight as an underdog, noting Knight's explosive power and ability to change fights with one shot. He acknowledges that Maxim Grishin is more technical and experienced, but Knight's intangibles make him dangerous. Levi is not fully confident and calls it a dog or pass situation.

"i'm going to lean that knight finds one of those moments and takes advantage"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Maxim Grishin

Grishin is a big light heavyweight who should be able to control Knight against the cage and outpoint him. Knight's only path to victory is a knockout, but Grishin is disciplined and can stay on the outside. Grishin's cardio is a concern, but he should win a decision if he fights smart. The line is a buy-low spot.

Grishin by decision
"i like the russian in this spot uh maybe uh you know a buy low spot for him as well around that -165 line considering that he in my opinion should be a slightly bigger favorite in the spot"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 9, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Maxim Grishin

Paul picks Grishin, citing his size and reach advantage. He notes Knight is short for the division and relies on a check left hook. He thinks Grishin can pick Knight apart at range and avoid the big shot.

"i think maxine grisham wins this fight on volume"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
William Knight

The MMA Guru picks William Knight by first-round KO, citing his athleticism and power. He accuses Knight of being on steroids and believes Grishin cannot avoid the knockout.

first round ko
"i'm gonna go of william knight he's on roids"
LOSS vs Dustin Jacoby
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gane · Feb 27, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dustin Jacoby 0 57 of 137 41% 60 of 141 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:48
Maxim Grishin 2 66 of 156 42% 80 of 172 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:16
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dustin Jacoby 0 13 of 32 40% 13 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
Maxim Grishin 2 21 of 39 53% 32 of 52 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:08
2 Dustin Jacoby 0 18 of 48 37% 18 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Maxim Grishin 0 18 of 42 42% 18 of 42 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Dustin Jacoby 0 26 of 57 45% 29 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:35
Maxim Grishin 0 27 of 75 36% 30 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dustin Jacoby 57 of 137 41% 25 of 88 7 of 15 25 of 34 55 of 133 2 of 4 0 of 0
Maxim Grishin 66 of 156 42% 31 of 110 8 of 16 27 of 30 59 of 144 2 of 5 5 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dustin Jacoby 13 of 32 40% 4 of 15 3 of 8 6 of 9 11 of 28 2 of 4 0 of 0
Maxim Grishin 21 of 39 53% 12 of 26 2 of 6 7 of 7 14 of 27 2 of 5 5 of 7
2 Dustin Jacoby 18 of 48 37% 6 of 33 2 of 4 10 of 11 18 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
Maxim Grishin 18 of 42 42% 7 of 28 4 of 6 7 of 8 18 of 42 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Dustin Jacoby 26 of 57 45% 15 of 40 2 of 3 9 of 14 26 of 57 0 of 0 0 of 0
Maxim Grishin 27 of 75 36% 12 of 56 2 of 4 13 of 15 27 of 75 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 24, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Big Brady picks Dustin Jacoby to win by second-round knockout. He thinks Jacoby is the much faster and crisper striker with higher volume, and that leg kicks will be a big factor in the small cage. He notes Grishin is older, has low volume, and lacks wrestling despite having a potential advantage there. He says the line at -175 is not awful but he is personally passing on betting it.

knockout in round 2
"i'm going to take jacoby here to win i'm going to say by by second round knockout"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Feb 26, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Daniel Levi picks Dustin Jacoby, noting the difference in striking level. He believes Jacoby's kickboxing background and leg kicks will be decisive, as Grishin prefers stand-up but has been knocked out before. Levi acknowledges Grishin's experience but thinks Jacoby's power and technique will secure the win.

"I'm gonna actually go with dustin jacoby here... i think the difference in level here on the feet is big enough to where i'll go with the favorite dustin jacoby to get it done"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Jacoby's striking, especially his calf kicks, will be a major problem for Grishin, who tends to back up and accept pressure. Jacoby has shown improved confidence and efficiency. Grishin is slow and doesn't excel in any one area. Jacoby should win via TKO in the second round, as Grishin's durability is questionable.

Jacoby inside the distance at +175
"i like jacoby uh personally i'd like better odds on on him too as well i'll probably stay away from this fight but i'd maybe peak the jacobi inside the distance line"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 21, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Maxim Grishin

The MMA Guru picks Maxim Grishin as an upset winner, citing Grishin's grappling advantage and ability to mix in takedowns against the kickboxer Jacoby. He notes Jacoby's time away for kickboxing may have hindered his wrestling development, and expects Grishin to wear him down with clinch work and grappling in the second and third rounds. He acknowledges Jacoby could win the first round but believes Grishin's cardio and pressure will take over. He also mentions Grishin's only recent loss was on short notice at heavyweight to Marcin Tybura, and that he has been successful in PFL.

"i believe we're gonna start this card off with an upset win with grisham getting the job done against dustin jacoby"
TKO (punches) R2 4:58 · UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. The Korean Zombie · Oct 18, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Maxim Grishin 0 12 of 23 52% 31 of 44 1 of 5 20% 0 0 2:39
Gadzhimurad Antigulov 0 34 of 76 44% 66 of 126 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:21
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Maxim Grishin 0 6 of 10 60% 18 of 22 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:13
Gadzhimurad Antigulov 0 11 of 18 61% 17 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Maxim Grishin 0 6 of 13 46% 13 of 22 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:26
Gadzhimurad Antigulov 0 23 of 58 39% 49 of 102 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:21
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Maxim Grishin 12 of 23 52% 5 of 15 4 of 5 3 of 3 8 of 17 3 of 5 1 of 1
Gadzhimurad Antigulov 34 of 76 44% 20 of 61 6 of 7 8 of 8 22 of 45 3 of 6 9 of 25
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Maxim Grishin 6 of 10 60% 2 of 6 2 of 2 2 of 2 5 of 9 1 of 1 0 of 0
Gadzhimurad Antigulov 11 of 18 61% 1 of 7 3 of 4 7 of 7 9 of 15 2 of 3 0 of 0
2 Maxim Grishin 6 of 13 46% 3 of 9 2 of 3 1 of 1 3 of 8 2 of 4 1 of 1
Gadzhimurad Antigulov 23 of 58 39% 19 of 54 3 of 3 1 of 1 13 of 30 1 of 3 9 of 25
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 14, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Maxim Grishin

Big Brady picks Grishin due to his size advantage (height and reach), experience, solid takedown defense, and get-up game. He notes Antigulov is dangerous early but has a very small window to win, and if he doesn't finish in the first couple minutes, he gasses out and likely gets knocked out. He predicts a late first-round knockout for Grishin.

under 1.5 rounds at -125
"grisham is the pick i'm going to pick him to win by like a first round late first round knockout there should be a very exciting fight for as long as it lasts though"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2020 (7 days before fight)
Maxim Grishin

The MMA Guru picks Maxim Grishin because he sees Antigulov as a disappointing fighter who fails often, while Grishin is blooming later in his career with good PFL competition. He notes Grishin's size, reach, and athletic advantages, and expects a grinding unanimous decision win.

"i feel like maxine grisham is going to get the job done i see him getting it done by unanimous decision grinding himself out the win"
LOSS vs Marcin Tybura
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–26) R3 5:00 · UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal · Jul 12, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marcin Tybura 0 24 of 52 46% 70 of 119 3 of 7 42% 0 0 9:25
Maxim Grishin 0 18 of 32 56% 54 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:16
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marcin Tybura 0 9 of 20 45% 27 of 38 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:45
Maxim Grishin 0 9 of 13 69% 21 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
2 Marcin Tybura 0 7 of 15 46% 19 of 30 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:42
Maxim Grishin 0 5 of 9 55% 24 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
3 Marcin Tybura 0 8 of 17 47% 24 of 51 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:58
Maxim Grishin 0 4 of 10 40% 9 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marcin Tybura 24 of 52 46% 15 of 36 5 of 9 4 of 7 14 of 37 6 of 11 4 of 4
Maxim Grishin 18 of 32 56% 9 of 20 4 of 5 5 of 7 14 of 27 4 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marcin Tybura 9 of 20 45% 6 of 13 0 of 2 3 of 5 5 of 15 4 of 5 0 of 0
Maxim Grishin 9 of 13 69% 3 of 5 3 of 3 3 of 5 8 of 11 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Marcin Tybura 7 of 15 46% 3 of 10 4 of 4 0 of 1 5 of 12 2 of 3 0 of 0
Maxim Grishin 5 of 9 55% 3 of 7 0 of 0 2 of 2 2 of 6 3 of 3 0 of 0
3 Marcin Tybura 8 of 17 47% 6 of 13 1 of 3 1 of 1 4 of 10 0 of 3 4 of 4
Maxim Grishin 4 of 10 40% 3 of 8 1 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Marcin Tybura

Big Brady picks Marcin Tybura by decision, citing Grishin's size disadvantage moving up from light heavyweight. He thinks Tybura's wrestling and BJJ will be key, and he can get takedowns and control Grishin. He notes the line flipped from Grishin being favorite, which he agrees with.

submission prop at good odds mentioned
"i like tybura here i'm probably gonna be in the minority here but i like tybura ... give me tybura uh decision um and would not be surprised if we did see a submission as well so i will be …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jul 8, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Maxim Grishin

Daniel Levi leans toward Maxim Grishin, calling this one of the toughest fights to call on the card. He notes Grishin's experience (39 pro fights) and win over Alexander Volkov, while questioning Tybura's suspect chin and gas tank. He sees Grishin as well-rounded enough to potentially upset Tybura, but is not highly confident.

"I'm gonna lean when Maxine Girish and I feel like he's well-rounded enough to come in here and upset ty Bora"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Maxim Grishin

Grishin has more experience, better technique, and is an overall better fighter. He has punching power and should be able to hurt Tybura on the feet. Both are similar in size, so Tybura won't have a size advantage. Picks Grishin to win by decision, but wouldn't be surprised by a finish.

"Grishin has punching power so he could definitely hurt Tiber on the feet"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert picked Jul 8, 2020 (4 days before fight)

The Guru does not discuss this fight in the transcript. No pick is made.

Expert Picks (4)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 24, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Big Brady picks Dustin Jacoby to win by second-round knockout. He thinks Jacoby is the much faster and crisper striker with higher volume, and that leg kicks will be a big factor in the small cage. He notes Grishin is older, has low volume, and lacks wrestling despite having a potential advantage there. He says the line at -175 is not awful but he is personally passing on betting it.

knockout in round 2
"i'm going to take jacoby here to win i'm going to say by by second round knockout"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Feb 26, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Daniel Levi picks Dustin Jacoby, noting the difference in striking level. He believes Jacoby's kickboxing background and leg kicks will be decisive, as Grishin prefers stand-up but has been knocked out before. Levi acknowledges Grishin's experience but thinks Jacoby's power and technique will secure the win.

"I'm gonna actually go with dustin jacoby here... i think the difference in level here on the feet is big enough to where i'll go with the favorite dustin jacoby to get it done"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Jacoby's striking, especially his calf kicks, will be a major problem for Grishin, who tends to back up and accept pressure. Jacoby has shown improved confidence and efficiency. Grishin is slow and doesn't excel in any one area. Jacoby should win via TKO in the second round, as Grishin's durability is questionable.

Jacoby inside the distance at +175
"i like jacoby uh personally i'd like better odds on on him too as well i'll probably stay away from this fight but i'd maybe peak the jacobi inside the distance line"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 21, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Maxim Grishin

The MMA Guru picks Maxim Grishin as an upset winner, citing Grishin's grappling advantage and ability to mix in takedowns against the kickboxer Jacoby. He notes Jacoby's time away for kickboxing may have hindered his wrestling development, and expects Grishin to wear him down with clinch work and grappling in the second and third rounds. He acknowledges Jacoby could win the first round but believes Grishin's cardio and pressure will take over. He also mentions Grishin's only recent loss was on short notice at heavyweight to Marcin Tybura, and that he has been successful in PFL.

"i believe we're gonna start this card off with an upset win with grisham getting the job done against dustin jacoby"