Career Averages - JJ Aldrich
Career Averages - Gillian Robertson
JJ Aldrich
Gillian Robertson
JJ Aldrich - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JJ Aldrich | 0 | 50 of 149 | 33% | 52 of 154 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:44 |
| Jamey-Lyn Horth | 0 | 70 of 230 | 30% | 73 of 233 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JJ Aldrich | 0 | 7 of 43 | 16% | 9 of 48 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:44 |
| Jamey-Lyn Horth | 0 | 21 of 54 | 38% | 23 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | JJ Aldrich | 0 | 16 of 46 | 34% | 16 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jamey-Lyn Horth | 0 | 21 of 88 | 23% | 22 of 89 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | JJ Aldrich | 0 | 27 of 60 | 45% | 27 of 60 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jamey-Lyn Horth | 0 | 28 of 88 | 31% | 28 of 88 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JJ Aldrich | 50 of 149 | 33% | 35 of 127 | 5 of 8 | 10 of 14 | 50 of 149 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jamey-Lyn Horth | 70 of 230 | 30% | 28 of 158 | 25 of 48 | 17 of 24 | 70 of 230 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JJ Aldrich | 7 of 43 | 16% | 5 of 38 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 | 7 of 43 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jamey-Lyn Horth | 21 of 54 | 38% | 11 of 33 | 8 of 15 | 2 of 6 | 21 of 54 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | JJ Aldrich | 16 of 46 | 34% | 11 of 39 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 4 | 16 of 46 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jamey-Lyn Horth | 21 of 88 | 23% | 7 of 67 | 5 of 10 | 9 of 11 | 21 of 88 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | JJ Aldrich | 27 of 60 | 45% | 19 of 50 | 3 of 5 | 5 of 5 | 27 of 60 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jamey-Lyn Horth | 28 of 88 | 31% | 10 of 58 | 12 of 23 | 6 of 7 | 28 of 88 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Jamey-Lyn Horth, citing her power, range control, and higher fight IQ. He notes that JJ Aldrich is coming off a layoff and was never dangerous, and that Horth's takedown defense is a concern but JJ is not a strong wrestler. He expects Horth to win a shutout decision.
Big Brady picks Jamey-Lyn Horth, citing her size, strength, and physicality. He believes Horth will win in the clinch and grind out a close split decision, despite Aldrich having better striking at distance. He expects an unexciting fight.
Cody picks Jamey-Lyn Horth, citing her physical strength and ability to pressure. He notes that JJ Aldrich has mental toughness issues and tends to fade when pressured. He expects Horth to win by decision or late stoppage.
Connor picks Aldrich because she is a much better technician with faster hands and superior skills everywhere. He notes that Horth is not the kind of athlete that beats Aldrich, and Aldrich has beaten similar fighters like Jillian Robertson and Vanessa Demopoulos. However, he expresses concern that Aldrich's tendency to abandon what works could make the fight closer than it should be.
Aldrich is the better fighter everywhere: more technical boxing, southpaw stance, improved takedown defense, and better MMA grappling. Horth has home advantage but poor fight IQ and is an inexperienced striker. Aldrich's main issue is putting her stamp on rounds, but she should do enough to win a close decision. The odds are off; Aldrich should be at least 50%.
James picks JJ Aldrich as an underdog, believing the line is too wide. He thinks Aldrich's boxing and takedown defense will keep the fight competitive, and that Horth's advantages are overstated. He predicts a decision win.
The host thinks Aldrich is the superior striker technically and has a strength of schedule advantage. He believes she will land more effective shots and withstand Horton's power. He notes that Horton throws with more power, which gives him pause, but sees value on Aldrich as a live underdog. He predicts Aldrich by decision.
Paul picks JJ Aldrich as a slight underdog, citing her experience and plus money. He notes that both fighters are similar but Aldrich has fought better competition. He expects a close decision and likes the value on Aldrich.
Zane agrees with Connor, emphasizing that Aldrich is a good technician and solid grappler who has beaten better fighters than Horth. He notes that Horth's best win is over Vanessa Demopoulos, while Aldrich has wins over better competition. He also points out that Horth is not a reckless fighter like Andrea Lee, so Aldrich may not get easy counters, but she should still win handily.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrea Lee | 0 | 53 of 175 | 30% | 66 of 192 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 | 0 | 0:46 |
| JJ Aldrich | 0 | 74 of 137 | 54% | 77 of 142 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:20 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andrea Lee | 0 | 18 of 57 | 31% | 18 of 57 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| JJ Aldrich | 0 | 21 of 43 | 48% | 23 of 45 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:19 | |
| 2 | Andrea Lee | 0 | 15 of 58 | 25% | 18 of 61 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| JJ Aldrich | 0 | 25 of 46 | 54% | 25 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:23 | |
| 3 | Andrea Lee | 0 | 20 of 60 | 33% | 30 of 74 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 0:46 |
| JJ Aldrich | 0 | 28 of 48 | 58% | 29 of 50 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:38 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrea Lee | 53 of 175 | 30% | 13 of 109 | 25 of 44 | 15 of 22 | 52 of 174 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| JJ Aldrich | 74 of 137 | 54% | 54 of 114 | 10 of 13 | 10 of 10 | 68 of 130 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andrea Lee | 18 of 57 | 31% | 1 of 32 | 8 of 12 | 9 of 13 | 18 of 57 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| JJ Aldrich | 21 of 43 | 48% | 14 of 34 | 2 of 4 | 5 of 5 | 18 of 39 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Andrea Lee | 15 of 58 | 25% | 3 of 35 | 6 of 14 | 6 of 9 | 15 of 58 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| JJ Aldrich | 25 of 46 | 54% | 17 of 37 | 4 of 5 | 4 of 4 | 25 of 46 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Andrea Lee | 20 of 60 | 33% | 9 of 42 | 11 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 19 of 59 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| JJ Aldrich | 28 of 48 | 58% | 23 of 43 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 25 of 45 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Andrea Lee despite her five-fight losing streak, arguing that she is still a good striker with quality losses and close decisions. He criticizes JJ Aldrich as inconsistent and lacking in wrestling and striking. He sees value in Lee at +163 odds but warns against betting on this fight due to the unpredictability of both fighters.
Big Brady picks JJ Aldrich but is hesitant. He acknowledges value on Andrea Lee at +170 but cannot pick her due to her five-fight losing streak and apparent decline. He notes Aldrich's takedown defense and striking should be enough, but expects a close split decision.
The host leans with Aldrich, believing she can use her striking approach to nullify Lee's kickboxing and shut down any grappling attempts. He expects Aldrich's combination style to earn her a decision win.
The Guru picks JJ Aldrich over Andrea Lee. He reasons that Andrea Lee is on a five-fight losing streak and declining, while Aldrich is more well-rounded and can get takedowns. He recalls Aldrich's performance against Erin Blanchfield before getting caught in a guillotine. He predicts a split decision win for Aldrich.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Veronica Hardy | 0 | 27 of 63 | 42% | 38 of 76 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 5:09 |
| JJ Aldrich | 0 | 36 of 78 | 46% | 69 of 113 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Veronica Hardy | 0 | 9 of 24 | 37% | 10 of 25 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:34 |
| JJ Aldrich | 0 | 14 of 24 | 58% | 26 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 | |
| 2 | Veronica Hardy | 0 | 8 of 18 | 44% | 10 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:12 |
| JJ Aldrich | 0 | 15 of 35 | 42% | 21 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Veronica Hardy | 0 | 10 of 21 | 47% | 18 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:23 |
| JJ Aldrich | 0 | 7 of 19 | 36% | 22 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Veronica Hardy | 27 of 63 | 42% | 19 of 51 | 8 of 11 | 0 of 1 | 15 of 47 | 8 of 9 | 4 of 7 |
| JJ Aldrich | 36 of 78 | 46% | 22 of 60 | 3 of 6 | 11 of 12 | 30 of 68 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Veronica Hardy | 9 of 24 | 37% | 8 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 19 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| JJ Aldrich | 14 of 24 | 58% | 10 of 19 | 0 of 1 | 4 of 4 | 11 of 19 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Veronica Hardy | 8 of 18 | 44% | 5 of 14 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 14 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| JJ Aldrich | 15 of 35 | 42% | 10 of 28 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 4 | 12 of 31 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Veronica Hardy | 10 of 21 | 47% | 6 of 14 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 6 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 |
| JJ Aldrich | 7 of 19 | 36% | 2 of 13 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 4 | 7 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
Angelo picks JJ Aldrich as an underdog, citing her improved striking and takedown defense in her last two fights. He notes she has an experience edge and a willingness to move forward. He acknowledges Veronica Hardy's technical striking and wrestling but believes Aldrich is more well-rounded. He also bets the over 2.5 rounds.
Big Brady picks Veronica Hardy because she is younger and has shown improvement since her layoff, looking like a completely different fighter. He notes that Hardy beat Juliana Miller decisively and had a competitive split decision win over Jamey-Lyn Horth. However, he acknowledges the fight is extremely close and expects it to go to a split decision, with the judges being unreliable. He prefers Hardy's upside over Aldridge's decent but limited game.
Cody picks Hardy, citing her improvements since marrying Dan Hardy. He notes that she has shown a well-rounded game, including takedowns and smart game plans. He believes she can mix in takedowns to keep Aldrich guessing and outwork her on the feet. Cody also mentions that Hardy trained at Renzo Gracie's for this camp, indicating a focus on grappling. He expects Hardy to win a competitive decision.
Daniel Vreeland picks Veronica Hardy, noting her improvements in strength and conditioning and her ability to get back up from bottom. He believes Hardy has leveled up, while JJ Aldrich has remained the same. He predicts a decision win for Hardy, though he doesn't like the short price.
The host leans Hardy due to her movement and speed, which will allow her to land effective damage in the first 6-7 minutes. He notes that Aldrich is not as aggressive as Hardy's previous opponent, allowing Hardy to dictate range. He expects Hardy to win on the scorecards, though Aldrich's countering ability could catch up later. The pick is a lean, not a strong bet.
Paul picks Hardy, noting that she was his first bet of the week. He highlights her takedown game and improved grappling since her return. He thinks Aldrich's takedown defense is inconsistent and that Hardy can exploit it. Paul also notes that Hardy's striking is competitive and that the threat of takedowns will slow Aldrich's volume. He is confident in Hardy.
The MMA Guru picks JJ Aldrich over Veronica Hardy, citing Aldrich's superior competition, size, reach, and aggression. He notes Hardy's recent wins came against lower-level opponents and that Aldrich is a career fighter with more to prove. He also mentions Aldrich's takedown defense and physicality in the clinch as key factors.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JJ Aldrich | 0 | 67 of 204 | 32% | 70 of 209 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 0 | 65 of 135 | 48% | 66 of 136 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:22 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JJ Aldrich | 0 | 19 of 55 | 34% | 20 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 0 | 19 of 35 | 54% | 19 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:22 | |
| 2 | JJ Aldrich | 0 | 21 of 63 | 33% | 23 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 0 | 20 of 44 | 45% | 20 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | JJ Aldrich | 0 | 27 of 86 | 31% | 27 of 86 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 0 | 26 of 56 | 46% | 27 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JJ Aldrich | 67 of 204 | 32% | 41 of 172 | 13 of 16 | 13 of 16 | 59 of 184 | 8 of 20 | 0 of 0 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 65 of 135 | 48% | 55 of 122 | 9 of 11 | 1 of 2 | 58 of 124 | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JJ Aldrich | 19 of 55 | 34% | 14 of 48 | 0 of 2 | 5 of 5 | 17 of 49 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 19 of 35 | 54% | 18 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 16 of 31 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | JJ Aldrich | 21 of 63 | 33% | 10 of 49 | 7 of 8 | 4 of 6 | 19 of 56 | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 20 of 44 | 45% | 15 of 38 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 41 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | JJ Aldrich | 27 of 86 | 31% | 17 of 75 | 6 of 6 | 4 of 5 | 23 of 79 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 26 of 56 | 46% | 22 of 51 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 24 of 52 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Montana De La Rosa because she is a very good wrestler with a straightforward game plan of taking opponents down. He notes that JJ Aldrich is decent at everything but great at nothing, and that Aldrich was taken down in her last fight. He also mentions that Montana's losses are to quality fighters like Tatiana Suarez, while Aldrich has had poor performances. He placed a half-unit bet on Montana at +135, noting the line has since moved.
Big Brady leans toward Montana De La Rosa, noting that she has a grappling advantage over JJ Aldrich. He believes De La Rosa's wrestling is solid for the division and that she can control the fight on the ground. He mentions that Aldrich has been taken down by lesser grapplers like Liang Na, so De La Rosa should be able to secure takedowns. However, he admits the fight could be close if De La Rosa cannot get the takedown, and he preferred her at plus money. He predicts a decision win.
Cody picks De La Rosa, citing her toughness, wrestling, and ability to pressure. He notes that Aldrich has struggled against grapplers and that De La Rosa's tenacity will be key. He expects De La Rosa to make the fight dirty and win a decision.
Daniel Levi picks Montana De La Rosa, noting her toughness and improved hands. He acknowledges JJ Aldrich is the cleaner striker but thinks Montana can bully her and take her back. He mentions that the value has shifted to Aldrich now that Montana is favored, but his pure pick is Montana.
Lucrative James sees this as a close fight, likely 29-28 either way. He leans Montana De La Rosa because he has seen JJ Aldrich 'flake' a few times against physical opponents like Erin Blanchfield and Bara. He believes De La Rosa's physicality can cause Aldrich to falter, though he acknowledges it's a toss-up.
Aldrich took this fight on short notice, which suggests she believes she has an edge from training with De La Rosa in the past. She has good takedown defense and superior striking, and should be able to stuff takedowns or work back to her feet. De La Rosa is on a two-fight losing streak and relies on wrestling, but Aldrich has shown she can handle grapplers. Expect Aldrich to land more damage and win by decision.
Paul picks De La Rosa, agreeing with the line movement. He notes that Aldrich has been taken down and controlled by wrestlers, and that De La Rosa's wrestling and heart should be enough. He expects a decision win.
The MMA Guru picks Montana De La Rosa over JJ Aldridge. He believes De La Rosa is underrated and notes her decent performance against Macy Barber and competitive rounds with Tatiana Suarez. He points to a common opponent, Ariane Lipski, who finished De La Rosa but later beat Aldridge, suggesting De La Rosa is stronger. He also mentions a slight reach advantage for De La Rosa and describes Aldridge as 'two hit and miss.'
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JJ Aldrich | 0 | 11 of 41 | 26% | 27 of 61 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 1:38 |
| Liang Na | 0 | 47 of 65 | 72% | 68 of 89 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 5:11 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JJ Aldrich | 0 | 7 of 28 | 25% | 21 of 45 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 0:56 |
| Liang Na | 0 | 11 of 20 | 55% | 18 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:41 | |
| 2 | JJ Aldrich | 0 | 4 of 13 | 30% | 6 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:42 |
| Liang Na | 0 | 36 of 45 | 80% | 50 of 60 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 3:30 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JJ Aldrich | 11 of 41 | 26% | 7 of 30 | 3 of 8 | 1 of 3 | 9 of 36 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Liang Na | 47 of 65 | 72% | 46 of 63 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 18 | 1 of 2 | 37 of 45 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JJ Aldrich | 7 of 28 | 25% | 6 of 21 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 2 | 5 of 23 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Liang Na | 11 of 20 | 55% | 10 of 18 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 13 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 5 | |
| 2 | JJ Aldrich | 4 of 13 | 30% | 1 of 9 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Liang Na | 36 of 45 | 80% | 36 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 34 of 40 |
Angelo states that JJ Aldrich is better everywhere but expresses frustration with her last performance against Ariane Lipski, which cost him a bet. He sarcastically considers betting on Liang out of spite but ultimately acknowledges Aldrich should win. He does not recommend betting on Aldrich due to the poor value and his personal distrust.
Big Brady is a fan of Liang Na but acknowledges her flaws: she gasses out quickly, has poor durability, and quits when tired. He expects JJ Aldrich to weather an early storm and then take over as Liang fades. He predicts Aldrich will win by second-round knockout due to exhaustion, as Liang will be unable to continue.
Cody picks Aldrich, noting her experience and level of competition. He expects Liang to gas out after an early flurry, leading to a finish. Cody likes Aldrich inside the distance at minus 145.
Daniel picks JJ Aldrich, stating that she should win easily against a lower-level opponent. He notes that Liang Na is not UFC caliber, with poor striking and chin. However, he refuses to lay the heavy price, calling it a pass. He is confident Aldrich wins but sees no betting value.
James is confident JJ Aldrich wins, citing her superior striking and Liang Na's lack of UFC-level success. He notes Liang Na has been finished by strikes in both UFC fights and has only one round of cardio. He predicts Aldrich will piece her up on the feet and likely get a finish, possibly in round three. However, he does not bet on the fight due to the short odds and Aldrich's lack of finishing history.
The host describes Liang Na as a 'die or get carried out' fighter who leaves herself open with wide looping shots and has poor takedown defense. JJ Aldrich is the far more technical striker and the host expects her to anticipate takedowns, counter effectively, and find a knockout. The host notes Aldrich hasn't finished in 7-8 years but believes this matchup is perfect for her to get a finish. He also likes the under 2.5 rounds prop.
Paul picks Aldrich, noting Liang's poor UFC performances and one-dimensional style. He expects Aldrich to survive the early storm and win by decision or late finish. Paul is not interested in the price but sees Aldrich as a safe pick.
The MMA Guru picks JJ Aldrich over Liang Na, calling it a no-brainer. He notes Aldrich's high-level experience in the UFC since 2016 with wins over known fighters like Julian Robertson and Courtney Casey. He dismisses Liang Na as simply not good, having lost to lower-level opponents. He emphasizes Aldrich's superior level of competition.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ariane da Silva | 0 | 101 of 204 | 49% | 113 of 216 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:19 |
| JJ Aldrich | 0 | 49 of 99 | 49% | 56 of 106 | 0 of 12 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:16 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ariane da Silva | 0 | 35 of 67 | 52% | 40 of 72 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| JJ Aldrich | 0 | 11 of 20 | 55% | 14 of 23 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:25 | |
| 2 | Ariane da Silva | 0 | 35 of 73 | 47% | 35 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| JJ Aldrich | 0 | 20 of 39 | 51% | 20 of 39 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Ariane da Silva | 0 | 31 of 64 | 48% | 38 of 71 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:19 |
| JJ Aldrich | 0 | 18 of 40 | 45% | 22 of 44 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:51 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ariane da Silva | 101 of 204 | 49% | 47 of 134 | 42 of 56 | 12 of 14 | 77 of 176 | 24 of 28 | 0 of 0 |
| JJ Aldrich | 49 of 99 | 49% | 42 of 92 | 4 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 45 of 95 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ariane da Silva | 35 of 67 | 52% | 17 of 42 | 15 of 20 | 3 of 5 | 22 of 53 | 13 of 14 | 0 of 0 |
| JJ Aldrich | 11 of 20 | 55% | 9 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 18 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Ariane da Silva | 35 of 73 | 47% | 15 of 48 | 15 of 20 | 5 of 5 | 30 of 68 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| JJ Aldrich | 20 of 39 | 51% | 18 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 19 of 38 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Ariane da Silva | 31 of 64 | 48% | 15 of 44 | 12 of 16 | 4 of 4 | 25 of 55 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| JJ Aldrich | 18 of 40 | 45% | 15 of 37 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 17 of 39 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo is very confident in JJ Aldrich, describing her as a solid, dependable grinder who will stick to a game plan and grind forward. He notes she is dangerous nowhere but good everywhere, and despite breaking his rule against betting on women's MMA, he places a 1.5 unit bet at -220. He believes she will win without taking risks.
Big Brady is confident in JJ Aldrich, noting she is the much more technical striker with better footwork. He highlights Lipski's huge hole in her ground game, calling it 'atrocious' and noting she has been finished on the mat multiple times. Brady expects Aldrich to mix takedowns and eventually get a late TKO, though he acknowledges decision is more likely.
Cody picks Aldrich, citing her training and striking. He notes da Silva's lack of improvement and thinks Aldrich can finish or win a decision. He is cautious about the price but sees Aldrich as a safe parlay piece.
Connor picks Aldrich confidently, citing her superior striking, takedown ability, and experience. He notes that Lipski has poor takedown defense and tends to focus on punching when pressured, which Aldrich can exploit with clinch work and takedowns. He believes Aldrich is a level above Lipski's previous competition.
Aldrich's footwork, combination striking, and experience should be too much for Lipski. Lipski has struggled against higher-level competition and has been finished in her losses. Aldrich can win on the feet or even on the ground. I expect Aldrich to box her way to a decision victory, controlling the distance and landing the cleaner shots.
Paul picks Aldrich, noting her striking advantage and improved wrestling. He thinks she can win standing or on the ground, but is wary of the -450 price. He mentions the under 2.5 rounds prop as interesting.
The MMA Guru picks JJ Aldrich, calling her underrated. He notes she trains with top fighters and performed decently against Blanchfield before getting guillotined. He believes Aldrich is more well-rounded and tougher, and will win a decision by out-grappling and making Ariane da Silva gun-shy.
Zane picks Aldrich, noting that she is a consistent, well-rounded fighter who should handle Lipski's aggressive but flawed style. He points out that Lipski's best win is against Luana Carolina, who is messy, and that Aldrich's takedown threat and counter-striking will be too much.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erin Blanchfield | 0 | 48 of 100 | 48% | 68 of 121 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:56 |
| JJ Aldrich | 0 | 32 of 71 | 45% | 38 of 77 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:42 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Erin Blanchfield | 0 | 23 of 58 | 39% | 27 of 62 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:43 |
| JJ Aldrich | 0 | 16 of 43 | 37% | 21 of 48 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 0:16 | |
| 2 | Erin Blanchfield | 0 | 25 of 42 | 59% | 41 of 59 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:13 |
| JJ Aldrich | 0 | 16 of 28 | 57% | 17 of 29 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:26 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erin Blanchfield | 48 of 100 | 48% | 29 of 76 | 11 of 11 | 8 of 13 | 46 of 96 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| JJ Aldrich | 32 of 71 | 45% | 29 of 66 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 31 of 68 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Erin Blanchfield | 23 of 58 | 39% | 13 of 44 | 7 of 7 | 3 of 7 | 22 of 56 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| JJ Aldrich | 16 of 43 | 37% | 15 of 42 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 41 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Erin Blanchfield | 25 of 42 | 59% | 16 of 32 | 4 of 4 | 5 of 6 | 24 of 40 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| JJ Aldrich | 16 of 28 | 57% | 14 of 24 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 27 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo sees Erin Blanchfield as a nasty grappler with dominant wrestling, and believes her path to victory is through grappling. He notes that JJ Aldrich is a decision machine with decent striking but a negative striking differential, and that the experience gap is not wide enough to matter. He expects Blanchfield to dominate with heavy grappling and may place a moneyline bet depending on the line movement.
Big Brady picks Erin Blanchfield to win by decision. He notes that Blanchfield is a huge favorite at -600 but thinks the line is too high, though he still sees her as one of the safer picks on the card. He expects Blanchfield to take Aldrich down repeatedly and control the fight on the mat, grinding out a dominant decision. He acknowledges Aldrich has good takedown defense but believes Blanchfield's relentless wrestling will be too much.
Cody picks Blanchfield, calling her a real prospect. He notes her wrestling and pressure, and thinks Aldrich's takedown defense has not been tested by a wrestler of Blanchfield's caliber. He expects Blanchfield to win by decision.
Daniel Levi picks Erin Blanchfield, praising her jiu-jitsu, wrestling, and youth. He acknowledges JJ Aldrich's experience but believes Blanchfield's skills will prevail. He calls it a 'dog or pass' situation due to the steep price, but picks Blanchfield to win, likely by decision.
Paul picks Blanchfield and has already bet Blanchfield by decision at -138. He notes Blanchfield's relentless grappling and pressure, and Aldrich's durability. He thinks Blanchfield will secure takedowns and grind out a decision.
The MMA Guru picks Erin Blanchfield despite acknowledging JJ Aldrich as a decent underdog. He worries Aldrich might stuff takedowns but notes that Miranda Maverick, who he considers equal or better than Aldrich, couldn't stop Blanchfield's grappling. He expects Blanchfield to dominate on the ground and win by unanimous decision 30-27. However, he strongly dislikes the odds, calling them 'really annoying' and implying they are too wide for his comfort.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JJ Aldrich | 0 | 60 of 118 | 50% | 76 of 137 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 3:07 |
| Gillian Robertson | 0 | 52 of 139 | 37% | 67 of 154 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 0:24 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JJ Aldrich | 0 | 19 of 35 | 54% | 19 of 35 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Gillian Robertson | 0 | 16 of 57 | 28% | 16 of 57 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | JJ Aldrich | 0 | 23 of 44 | 52% | 30 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 1:16 |
| Gillian Robertson | 0 | 17 of 40 | 42% | 19 of 42 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:24 | |
| 3 | JJ Aldrich | 0 | 18 of 39 | 46% | 27 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:51 |
| Gillian Robertson | 0 | 19 of 42 | 45% | 32 of 55 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JJ Aldrich | 60 of 118 | 50% | 56 of 114 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 49 of 105 | 9 of 11 | 2 of 2 |
| Gillian Robertson | 52 of 139 | 37% | 17 of 81 | 18 of 36 | 17 of 22 | 45 of 131 | 7 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JJ Aldrich | 19 of 35 | 54% | 17 of 33 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 18 of 33 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Gillian Robertson | 16 of 57 | 28% | 4 of 30 | 4 of 16 | 8 of 11 | 16 of 57 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | JJ Aldrich | 23 of 44 | 52% | 22 of 43 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 36 | 7 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Gillian Robertson | 17 of 40 | 42% | 7 of 26 | 7 of 9 | 3 of 5 | 15 of 38 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | JJ Aldrich | 18 of 39 | 46% | 17 of 38 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 36 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 |
| Gillian Robertson | 19 of 42 | 45% | 6 of 25 | 7 of 11 | 6 of 6 | 14 of 36 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Gillian Robertson because she is a well-rounded fighter with a strong wrestling base, averaging almost three takedowns per fight. He believes Robertson will be more physical and work the fight to the ground, as JJ Aldrich has not faced someone as physical or wrestling-heavy. He notes that the -150 odds are spot on and expects the line to move further in Robertson's favor.
Big Brady picks the underdog JJ Aldrich to win by decision. He praises Aldrich's underrated grappling, takedown defense, and ability to control opponents on the mat, citing her performances against Vanessa Demopoulos and Paulina Viana. He notes Robertson has poor takedown defense (16%) and is content to play off her back, but Aldrich's BJJ is good enough to avoid submissions. He thinks Aldrich has more paths to victory: out-striking or controlling on the ground.
Cody picks Aldrich, citing her durability and striking advantage. He notes Robertson's cardio issues and Aldrich's training with Maverick. He likes the over 2.5 rounds as a bet.
Daniel Levi picks JJ Aldrich, arguing that Aldrich's stand-up is way higher than Robertson's and that she keeps her distance well. He believes if Aldrich stuffs the first few takedowns, Robertson will start flopping to her back, allowing Aldrich to take advantage. Levi acknowledges that if Robertson gets on top, Aldrich is a brown belt and can survive, but he sees Aldrich neutralizing Robertson and winning a decision.
Aldrich has good boxing and takedown defense, but hasn't faced a relentless grappler like Robertson recently. She can keep the fight standing and use top control if taken down. Robertson is a submission specialist but may struggle to get takedowns. Aldrich is predicted to win via decision, with the over 2.5 rounds also considered.
Paul picks Aldrich, citing her durability and striking. He notes Robertson's cardio issues and Aldrich's training with Maverick. He likes the over 2.5 rounds.
The MMA Guru picks JJ Aldrich over Gillian Robertson, going against the grain. He highlights Aldrich's takedown defense, noting she hasn't been taken down since 2019 and pops right back up. He believes Aldrich is capable on the feet, training with Rose Namajunas and Valentina Shevchenko, and that Robertson won't be able to utilize her grappling. He predicts a grinding decision or a late-round TKO, as Aldrich is tough to submit.
Gillian Robertson - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amanda Lemos | 0 | 42 of 73 | 57% | 51 of 84 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 1 | 2:04 |
| Gillian Robertson | 0 | 12 of 26 | 46% | 64 of 81 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 0 | 2 | 9:17 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amanda Lemos | 0 | 25 of 37 | 67% | 27 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 1:40 |
| Gillian Robertson | 0 | 5 of 15 | 33% | 9 of 20 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 1 | 1:38 | |
| 2 | Amanda Lemos | 0 | 10 of 19 | 52% | 11 of 22 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
| Gillian Robertson | 0 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 26 of 28 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:06 | |
| 3 | Amanda Lemos | 0 | 7 of 17 | 41% | 13 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Gillian Robertson | 0 | 5 of 8 | 62% | 29 of 33 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 1 | 3:33 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amanda Lemos | 42 of 73 | 57% | 31 of 61 | 8 of 8 | 3 of 4 | 27 of 57 | 2 of 2 | 13 of 14 |
| Gillian Robertson | 12 of 26 | 46% | 5 of 12 | 2 of 4 | 5 of 10 | 10 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amanda Lemos | 25 of 37 | 67% | 18 of 29 | 6 of 6 | 1 of 2 | 12 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 13 |
| Gillian Robertson | 5 of 15 | 33% | 2 of 7 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 6 | 5 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Amanda Lemos | 10 of 19 | 52% | 7 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Gillian Robertson | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Amanda Lemos | 7 of 17 | 41% | 6 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Gillian Robertson | 5 of 8 | 62% | 3 of 5 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 |
Angelo picks Gillian Robertson but expresses nervousness. He acknowledges Robertson's poor takedowns and atrocious striking, but believes her relentless pressure and submission threats will cause Amanda Lemos to freeze. He also notes the smaller cage helps Robertson. He points out that Lemos has good takedown defense, having defended nine takedowns from Tatiana Suarez, but still thinks Robertson's volume will win out.
Big Brady picks Gillian Robertson to win by third-round submission. He likes her move to strawweight (5-1 record) and improved wrestling and ground-and-pound. He notes Lemos's age (38) and 64% takedown defense, and believes Robertson can get takedowns, control top position, and eventually submit her.
Cody picks Robertson but with caution. He highlights her improved wrestling and submission game under Dean Thomas, but worries about Lemos' takedown defense and power. He notes Robertson's striking is poor and if she can't get takedowns, she's in trouble. He advises not going too heavy on her.
Connor picks Robertson, citing that Lemos will engage in grappling if she doesn't knock Robertson out, and Robertson's A-game is grappling. He compares it to Lemos's loss to Tatiana Suarez, where Lemos willingly clinched.
James picks Gillian Robertson to win inside the distance via ground and pound or submission. He highlights Robertson's relentless grappling and Lemos' tendency to regrapple and make poor decisions on the ground. He notes that Lemos has a striking advantage but expects Robertson to eventually get takedowns and finish. He suggests the fight not going to decision as a potential bet.
The host picks Lemos to win by knockout, believing her power and defensive grappling will be too much for Robertson. He expects Lemos to stuff takedowns and land big shots on the feet, eventually finishing Robertson. He notes that Robertson's lack of striking and physicality will be exposed, and that Lemos's experience against strong grapplers gives her the edge.
Paul picks Robertson confidently, citing her recent run, coaching from Dean Thomas, and improved wrestling. He believes she will get takedowns and control the fight. He notes Lemos has low volume and can be taken down, though he acknowledges the price is steep.
The Guru picks Gillian Robertson, despite her lack of striking power, because her grappling is consistent and Lemos has been out-grappled by top opponents. He thinks Robertson will get top position early and submit her in the second round, though he acknowledges Lemos could win if she stuffs a takedown and lands a big shot.
Zane leans Robertson, noting that Lemos will likely initiate grappling if she doesn't knock Robertson out immediately, which plays into Robertson's strength. He acknowledges Robertson could get nuked on the feet but thinks Lemos's tendency to wrestle will cost her.
Cody picks Robertson, citing her improved grappling and game planning. He notes Lemos's takedown defense issues and expects Robertson to take her down, control position, and win a decision. He likes the decision prop.
Connor picks Lemos, citing her athleticism and the fact that Robertson has never beaten a high-level athlete. He acknowledges Lemos's lack of development and tendency to waste time, but believes Robertson's mental block against athletic opponents will be her undoing. He notes that Lemos's recent wrestling is just a way to slow fights down, not a decisive advantage.
Lucrative James picks Gillian Robertson confidently, emphasizing her relentless grappling and ground-and-pound. He notes Amanda Lemos' takedown defense and fight IQ issues, and believes Robertson will eventually get a takedown and finish via submission or ground-and-pound. He projects Robertson as a -175 favorite.
Paul also picks Robertson, highlighting her takedown ability and improved striking. He thinks Lemos's low volume and poor takedown defense will be exploited, and expects Robertson to win a decision. He likes the decision prop.
Zane picks Robertson but is hesitant, noting that Robertson has a technical advantage and has improved, but has historically struggled against athletic opponents. He worries Robertson may give too much respect to Lemos's speed and power, leading to poor takedown attempts. He sees this as a winnable fight for Robertson if she can stay confident and execute her game plan.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 4 of 17 | 23% | 7 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Gillian Robertson | 0 | 16 of 41 | 39% | 73 of 120 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 5:21 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 2 of 13 | 15% | 5 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Gillian Robertson | 0 | 11 of 25 | 44% | 42 of 63 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:34 | |
| 2 | Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Gillian Robertson | 0 | 5 of 16 | 31% | 31 of 57 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:47 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marina Rodriguez | 4 of 17 | 23% | 3 of 14 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Gillian Robertson | 16 of 41 | 39% | 12 of 32 | 2 of 6 | 2 of 3 | 6 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 21 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marina Rodriguez | 2 of 13 | 15% | 2 of 11 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Gillian Robertson | 11 of 25 | 44% | 7 of 17 | 2 of 5 | 2 of 3 | 6 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 8 | |
| 2 | Marina Rodriguez | 2 of 4 | 50% | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Gillian Robertson | 5 of 16 | 31% | 5 of 15 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 13 |
Angelo points out that Marina Rodriguez has poor takedown defense, which Gillian Robertson can exploit with her grappling. He acknowledges that Robertson's takedowns are not spectacular but should be sufficient. He expects Robertson to get the fight to the ground and control it, though he notes it could be a close decision due to Rodriguez's striking ability.
Big Brady is confident in Gillian Robertson, citing a clear stylistic advantage. He explains that Marina Rodriguez has poor willingness to get up after being taken down, and at 38 years old, she won't improve that. Robertson is younger and will take Rodriguez down, control her on the ground, and cruise to a 30-27 decision. He notes that Rodriguez has survived finishes against solid grapplers but loses minutes on bottom.
Connor picks Robertson because she has been improving and knows her win condition, while Rodriguez has lost a step and confidence. He notes that Robertson is a bully at strawweight, willing to eat shots to impose her grappling, and that Rodriguez is a terrible defensive wrestler and a slow starter who often gives up takedowns in the first round. He also mentions that Rodriguez's recent losses show she can't think her way out of simple puzzles.
This is a clear striker vs grappler matchup. Robertson has the grappling advantage and should exploit Rodriguez's poor takedown defense and getups. I expect Robertson to secure a submission victory.
The MMA Guru picks Marina Rodriguez as an underdog, despite originally leaning towards Gillian Robertson. He argues that Robertson's offensive wrestling isn't at the level of others who have taken Rodriguez down, and that Rodriguez will outland her on the feet. He believes Rodriguez has good takedown defense and has survived submission attempts from Mackenzie Dern. He predicts Rodriguez wins on damage, possibly by third-round TKO.
Zane picks Robertson because she has been getting better and is more comfortable, while Rodriguez seems aimless and has lost a step. He notes that Robertson's wrestling flows well into her grappling when she is not scared off, and that Rodriguez is a career-long slow starter who gives up takedowns. He also points out that Rodriguez's confidence is shaken, and without it her technical deficiencies are laid bare.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gillian Robertson | 0 | 42 of 105 | 40% | 63 of 128 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:17 |
| Luana Pinheiro | 0 | 52 of 108 | 48% | 78 of 145 | 5 of 17 | 29% | 0 | 1 | 8:13 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gillian Robertson | 0 | 14 of 38 | 36% | 16 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Luana Pinheiro | 0 | 15 of 32 | 46% | 15 of 35 | 3 of 8 | 37% | 0 | 0 | 2:33 | |
| 2 | Gillian Robertson | 0 | 25 of 61 | 40% | 29 of 65 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Luana Pinheiro | 0 | 20 of 47 | 42% | 22 of 55 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 1:22 | |
| 3 | Gillian Robertson | 0 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 18 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:13 |
| Luana Pinheiro | 0 | 17 of 29 | 58% | 41 of 55 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 1 | 4:18 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gillian Robertson | 42 of 105 | 40% | 23 of 84 | 16 of 18 | 3 of 3 | 41 of 102 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Luana Pinheiro | 52 of 108 | 48% | 33 of 72 | 5 of 18 | 14 of 18 | 28 of 76 | 4 of 4 | 20 of 28 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gillian Robertson | 14 of 38 | 36% | 8 of 32 | 5 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 37 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Luana Pinheiro | 15 of 32 | 46% | 6 of 17 | 2 of 5 | 7 of 10 | 9 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 8 | |
| 2 | Gillian Robertson | 25 of 61 | 40% | 13 of 48 | 11 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 24 of 59 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Luana Pinheiro | 20 of 47 | 42% | 11 of 32 | 3 of 9 | 6 of 6 | 17 of 44 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Gillian Robertson | 3 of 6 | 50% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Luana Pinheiro | 17 of 29 | 58% | 16 of 23 | 0 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 20 |
Angelo argues that since Luana Pinheiro was submitted by Angela Hill (the least dangerous grappler), she will certainly be submitted by Gillian Robertson, who has the most submission wins in flyweight history. He acknowledges Pinheiro has decent takedown defense and striking, but the MMA math leads him to Robertson. He calls it the only logical conclusion.
Big Brady believes this is a terrible matchup for Pinheiro, who fades after 7.5 minutes and has been submitted before. He praises Robertson's size, strength, cardio, and ground game, predicting she will take over late and submit Pinheiro in the second round.
Cody echoes Paul's concerns about Pinheiro's wrestling and notes her quit in the Ronda Marcos fight. He highlights Robertson's high ring IQ and ability to grind opponents down with ground and pound. Cody expects Robertson to dominate on the mat and finish or win a clear decision.
Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Pinheiro's striking is aimless and formless. He thinks Robertson can ride out Pinheiro's initial success and eventually get her to the mat. He expects a submission win for Robertson.
Daniel Vreeland confidently picks Gillian Robertson, highlighting her record for most submission wins in UFC women's history and her ability to get takedowns. He criticizes Luana Pinheiro's toughness and cites past performances where Pinheiro was taken down and submitted by lesser grapplers. Vreeland expects Robertson to dominate on the ground and secure a finish.
Lucrative James confidently picks Gillian Robertson to win by submission. He highlights that Robertson has more physicality at strawweight and is a dangerous BJJ artist, while Pinheiro has cardio issues and is not strong in grappling. He predicts Robertson will get top position and finish via rear-naked choke or armbar, and also suggests the fight won't go to decision.
This is a horrible stylistic matchup for Pinheiro. If she can't get success in the first round, Robertson will wear her down with pressure and pace, leading to a submission victory in round two.
Paul sees Pinheiro's takedown defense as a major red flag, citing her struggles against Angela Hill and Michelle Waterson. He believes Robertson's relentless top control and submission threats will be too much. Paul likes Robertson by submission and thinks the -400 line is accurate.
The Guru picks Gillian Robertson, citing her grappling advantage and recent submission wins. He notes Luana Pinheiro's two-fight losing streak and that Robertson is a big favorite. He expects Robertson to implement her grappling and get a submission or TKO finish.
Zane picks Robertson confidently. He notes that Pinheiro has a one-dimensional judo clinch game and no real striking. Robertson is a diligent takedown artist and ruthless on the ground. He expects Robertson to get the takedown and likely submit Pinheiro.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gillian Robertson | 0 | 21 of 52 | 40% | 41 of 75 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:19 |
| Michelle Waterson-Gomez | 0 | 77 of 105 | 73% | 122 of 156 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 2 | 0 | 12:34 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gillian Robertson | 0 | 11 of 37 | 29% | 15 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Michelle Waterson-Gomez | 0 | 27 of 43 | 62% | 36 of 53 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 3:23 | |
| 2 | Gillian Robertson | 0 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 13 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Michelle Waterson-Gomez | 0 | 27 of 31 | 87% | 48 of 53 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 | 0 | 4:49 | |
| 3 | Gillian Robertson | 0 | 6 of 9 | 66% | 13 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:19 |
| Michelle Waterson-Gomez | 0 | 23 of 31 | 74% | 38 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 4:22 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gillian Robertson | 21 of 52 | 40% | 19 of 48 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 37 | 3 of 4 | 9 of 11 |
| Michelle Waterson-Gomez | 77 of 105 | 73% | 67 of 94 | 9 of 9 | 1 of 2 | 10 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 67 of 81 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gillian Robertson | 11 of 37 | 29% | 9 of 33 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 33 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 3 |
| Michelle Waterson-Gomez | 27 of 43 | 62% | 23 of 39 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 19 of 24 | |
| 2 | Gillian Robertson | 4 of 6 | 66% | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 1 |
| Michelle Waterson-Gomez | 27 of 31 | 87% | 22 of 26 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 26 of 30 | |
| 3 | Gillian Robertson | 6 of 9 | 66% | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 7 |
| Michelle Waterson-Gomez | 23 of 31 | 74% | 22 of 29 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 22 of 27 |
Cody picks Robertson, citing her youth, grappling advantage, and recent improvements. He notes that Waterson is 38 and on a losing streak, and that her takedown defense has declined. Cody believes Robertson will take Waterson down and control the fight on the ground, possibly winning by submission or decision. He also mentions that Robertson has been working on her cardio and game planning.
Daniel believes Robertson's path is to get takedowns and maul Waterson on the ground, either by submission or ground-and-pound TKO. He notes Robertson holds the record for most submissions in women's UFC history. He sees Waterson's only path being keeping it standing or hitting a sneaky submission, but thinks Robertson will eventually get her down.
The host does not discuss this fight at all in the transcript. The entire podcast is focused on the Conor McGregor vs Michael Chandler fight, which is not on the provided fight card. Therefore, no pick is made for this fight.
The host is confident Robertson will get a submission, citing her relentless grappling and ability to take the back. He notes Waterson-Gomez is on a four-fight losing streak and slowing down at 38. He expects Robertson to eventually secure a takedown and find a choke, recommending Robertson by submission as the best bet.
Paul picks Robertson, noting that Waterson is past her prime and has lost six of her last seven. He believes Robertson's grappling will be too much for Waterson, who has been submitted before. Paul also mentions that Robertson is younger and improving, while Waterson's best days are behind her.
The Guru picks Michelle Waterson-Gomez as an underdog over Gillian Robertson. He praises Waterson's takedown defense and striking, saying she is levels above Robertson on the feet. He doubts Robertson's ability to harm anyone standing. He expects Waterson to win by decision.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gillian Robertson | 0 | 23 of 39 | 58% | 49 of 91 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 6:06 |
| Polyana Viana | 0 | 12 of 41 | 29% | 33 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:27 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gillian Robertson | 0 | 8 of 13 | 61% | 16 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 3:52 |
| Polyana Viana | 0 | 8 of 18 | 44% | 20 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:27 | |
| 2 | Gillian Robertson | 0 | 15 of 26 | 57% | 33 of 68 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:14 |
| Polyana Viana | 0 | 4 of 23 | 17% | 13 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gillian Robertson | 23 of 39 | 58% | 20 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 | 5 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 26 |
| Polyana Viana | 12 of 41 | 29% | 10 of 37 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 9 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gillian Robertson | 8 of 13 | 61% | 7 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 8 |
| Polyana Viana | 8 of 18 | 44% | 7 of 16 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 | |
| 2 | Gillian Robertson | 15 of 26 | 57% | 13 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 18 |
| Polyana Viana | 4 of 23 | 17% | 3 of 21 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 4 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Robertson (-230), Viana (+190)
Round 1
Strawweight grapplers are up next, with Robertson trying to even things up at 2-2 for Team Canada against her Brazilian counterpart. The referee is Kevin Macdonald. Both women are in orthodox stance, and Viana is the first to land, sticking Robertson with a long jab. They exchange jabs and Viana punctuates with a body kick. Robertson times a nice single-leg and hauls Viana down with ease. Robertson is on top in Viana’s half guard, leaning across her body and elbowing the ribs. Viana locks down the left leg and Robertson works for a straight armlock on the far arm. Robertson gives up on the arm attack and goes heavy on top, working to pass her guard as she does. Robertson throws two elbow strikes and slides right into mount. A couple more elbow strikes and Viana turns to the side. Robertson applies an arm-triangle choke and tries to move out to the side to finish. Viana manages to regain guard, but gives up her back a moment later. A minute to go in the round and Robertson is in back mount. She goes supine, rolls Viana on top of her, and Viana gives up mount. Robertson peels off for an armbar. It’s locked in and close to danger territory, but Viana extricates her arm and escapes. They return to their feet at the horn.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Robertson
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Robertson
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Robertson
Round 2
Viana lands a low kick and slips the counter coming back her way. Viana tags Robertson with a straight right, then another, both of which glance off the guard. Robertson steps in, grabs a single-leg and gets another effortless takedown. She moves quickly to mount and Viana turns her back. Robertson is on top, drops an elbow and is in position to look for a choke if the opportunity presents itself. Robertson throws several hard punches that bounce off the forearm but still rattle the Brazilian’s head.
Robertson is all over Viana at the halfway point of the round, landing ground-and-pound. She keeps pouring it on and after 10 or more solid blows with no reaction from the turtled Viana, Macdonald steps in for the stoppage.
The Official Result
Gillian Robertson def. Polyana Viana R2 3:12 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo picks Robertson but with medium confidence, noting her grappling credentials and record submission wins. He criticizes her inability to get fights to the ground despite being a great grappler, and acknowledges Viana's own dangerous ground game. He expects Robertson to win via grappling but is wary of Viana's toughness and cardio.
Big Brady is confident in Robertson because Viana has poor takedown defense and is content to play off her back, which plays into Robertson's strength. He notes Robertson has good ground and pound and submissions, while Viana's only path is a knockout. He predicts Robertson will get the fight down and submit Viana in the second round.
Cody picks Robertson, citing her superior wrestling and grappling. He questions Viana's jiu-jitsu and cardio, noting she gets tired and gives up submissions. He believes Robertson will take her down and control the fight.
Daniel Vreeland picks Gillian Robertson by submission. He notes Robertson is one-dimensional but dangerous on the mat, while Viana can crack on the feet but is susceptible to submissions. He expects Robertson to chain takedowns and have her way on top, leading to a submission win.
This fight is not discussed in the transcript. The host does not mention Robertson vs Viana.
I expect Robertson to drag this fight to the ground and utilize her superior Jiu-Jitsu to control top position and eventually open up a submission opportunity. Viana relies too much on her guard off her back, and Robertson has good enough Jiu-Jitsu to stay out of submission threats. I think it's just a matter of time once the fight hits the mat that Robertson can work to a dominant position and sink in a submission. I like the under 2.5 rounds prop as well.
Paul picks Viana as a chaos pick, noting her volatility and submission threat. He acknowledges Robertson is more likely to win but has a gut feeling Viana could pull off an armbar. He suggests Viana inside the distance as a better bet.
The MMA Guru picks Gillian Robertson, calling her a slight step above 'bottom feeder trash.' He criticizes Polyana Viana's lack of commitment and poor competition, noting she hasn't beaten anyone good. He believes Robertson can get top position safely and avoid Viana's submission threat.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tabatha Ricci | 0 | 100 of 315 | 31% | 101 of 318 | 3 of 8 | 37% | 0 | 0 | 0:38 |
| Gillian Robertson | 0 | 76 of 219 | 34% | 78 of 225 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0:26 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tabatha Ricci | 0 | 29 of 80 | 36% | 30 of 81 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 0:30 |
| Gillian Robertson | 0 | 12 of 48 | 25% | 14 of 53 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 | |
| 2 | Tabatha Ricci | 0 | 31 of 114 | 27% | 31 of 115 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
| Gillian Robertson | 0 | 36 of 86 | 41% | 36 of 86 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Tabatha Ricci | 0 | 40 of 121 | 33% | 40 of 122 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Gillian Robertson | 0 | 28 of 85 | 32% | 28 of 86 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:25 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tabatha Ricci | 100 of 315 | 31% | 59 of 257 | 17 of 25 | 24 of 33 | 95 of 306 | 3 of 7 | 2 of 2 |
| Gillian Robertson | 76 of 219 | 34% | 31 of 150 | 24 of 40 | 21 of 29 | 74 of 212 | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tabatha Ricci | 29 of 80 | 36% | 17 of 60 | 2 of 6 | 10 of 14 | 27 of 77 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 2 |
| Gillian Robertson | 12 of 48 | 25% | 4 of 34 | 4 of 9 | 4 of 5 | 12 of 46 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Tabatha Ricci | 31 of 114 | 27% | 16 of 94 | 8 of 10 | 7 of 10 | 31 of 112 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Gillian Robertson | 36 of 86 | 41% | 14 of 56 | 9 of 12 | 13 of 18 | 35 of 83 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Tabatha Ricci | 40 of 121 | 33% | 26 of 103 | 7 of 9 | 7 of 9 | 37 of 117 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Gillian Robertson | 28 of 85 | 32% | 13 of 60 | 11 of 19 | 4 of 6 | 27 of 83 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Tabatha Ricci, citing her strength, pressure, and superior grappling. He believes Ricci is too strong for Gillian Robertson to take down and will be the better grappler on the ground. He has half a unit on Ricci at -121 and notes the line has yo-yoed. He sees Ricci as the next evolution of the wrestle-boxer style.
Big Brady leans towards Tabatha Ricci, believing she will be the better wrestler and striker. He notes Robertson's poor takedown defense (25%) and tendency to accept being on her back. He thinks Ricci's Judo background and BJJ black belt will allow her to get takedowns and control the fight. He predicts a decision win but acknowledges it could go either way.
Cody picks Robertson, citing her size and strength advantage. He notes her grappling credentials but acknowledges her struggles against good wrestlers. He thinks the plus money is worth it and expects a close fight.
Connor picks Ricci because she is strong, an excellent grappler, and increasingly comfortable on the feet. He notes that Robertson's winning condition is narrow: she must get on top and dominate with submissions or ground and pound. Ricci is difficult to take down and is rapidly improving everywhere, while Robertson had to learn striking and still looks awkward. Connor also points out that Ricci seems to enjoy striking and will look significantly faster than Robertson. He suggests Ricci could even choose to avoid grappling entirely and work on her striking against a slower, more cumbersome opponent.
Daniel Levi picks Tabatha Ricci, citing her ability to keep the fight standing or wrestle in reverse. He notes Robertson's submission threat but thinks Ricci's jiu-jitsu and physicality can neutralize it. He believes Ricci has more paths to victory and can survive on the ground if needed.
The host picks Tabatha Ricci to win by decision. He believes Ricci is a superior grappler and wrestler who will get top position and control Robertson. He notes Robertson's tendency to play off her back and thinks Ricci will be too privy to her submission attempts. He expects Ricci to dominate the fight with top control and win a decision.
Paul picks Ricci, citing her striking advantage and top control. He notes her training with Mackenzie Dern and thinks she can avoid Robertson's submissions. He mentions he already bet Ricci at -125.
The Guru picks Gillian Robertson over the majority pick Tabatha Ricci. He believes Robertson's length and reach advantage will allow her to lead the dance, and she does more damage on the ground with ground and pound. He thinks both are grapplers but Robertson's aggression and experience will win her a split decision based on damage.
Zane agrees with Connor, picking Ricci. He notes that Robertson's winning condition is narrow: she must get on top and dominate with submissions or ground and pound. Ricci is difficult to take down and is rapidly improving everywhere, while Robertson had to learn striking and still looks awkward. Zane also points out that Ricci seems to enjoy striking and will look significantly faster than Robertson. He suggests Ricci could even choose to avoid grappling entirely and work on her striking against a slower, more cumbersome opponent.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gillian Robertson | 0 | 26 of 39 | 66% | 46 of 62 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 | 0 | 6:23 |
| Piera Rodríguez | 0 | 12 of 33 | 36% | 25 of 47 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:54 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gillian Robertson | 0 | 13 of 25 | 52% | 20 of 34 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:12 |
| Piera Rodríguez | 0 | 12 of 29 | 41% | 24 of 42 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:54 | |
| 2 | Gillian Robertson | 0 | 13 of 14 | 92% | 26 of 28 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 4:11 |
| Piera Rodríguez | 0 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gillian Robertson | 26 of 39 | 66% | 20 of 29 | 1 of 4 | 5 of 6 | 12 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 16 |
| Piera Rodríguez | 12 of 33 | 36% | 10 of 31 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gillian Robertson | 13 of 25 | 52% | 8 of 16 | 1 of 4 | 4 of 5 | 11 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
| Piera Rodríguez | 12 of 29 | 41% | 10 of 27 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Gillian Robertson | 13 of 14 | 92% | 12 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 13 |
| Piera Rodríguez | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Piera Rodríguez as a live underdog, citing her nasty striking, finishing ability, and 77% takedown defense. He notes that Gillian Robertson's takedowns are terrible and her striking is not good enough to hang. He expects Rodríguez to defend takedowns, win striking exchanges, and potentially get her own takedowns. He has a small quarter-unit bet on her at +102.
Big Brady picks Piera Rodríguez to win a close decision. He notes Rodríguez's striking advantage and solid takedown defense (77%), while Robertson has poor takedown defense (28%). He is concerned about Robertson's weight cut to strawweight but leans Rodríguez due to her ability to keep the fight standing and potentially land takedowns.
Cody bet Robertson earlier at plus money and notes her grappling is strong, especially at strawweight where she is undefeated. He thinks the weight cut may help her strength and control. He acknowledges Rodriguez's improvements but sticks with Robertson.
Connor agrees, noting that Robertson's striking is bad and she looks surprised when hit. He believes Rodriguez has the control of distance and wrestling to handle Robertson's grappling, and that Robertson's only chance is to get on top, but the process of getting there is chaotic.
Rodríguez's striking and improved grappling will be too much for Robertson, who is one-dimensional with her BJJ. Robertson struggles to get fights to the ground and gets outstruck. Rodríguez has shown good takedown defense and can work back to her feet. Her aggression and clinch knees should win rounds. Robertson's experience won't overcome the skill gap.
Paul likes Rodriguez as a slight underdog, citing her wrestling, cardio, and training camp. He thinks Robertson's striking is poor and that Rodriguez can win the stand-up and avoid submissions. He expects a 29-28 decision for Rodriguez.
The MMA Guru edges Piera Rodríguez in a close fight, citing her well-rounded skills, striking accuracy, and takedown defense (77%). He was initially leaning toward Robertson but was impressed by Rodríguez's tape. He thinks Rodríguez can stuff takedowns and outpoint Robertson, though Robertson's grappling is always a threat.
Zane picks Rodriguez because she looks controlled, moves in combination, and gets out of the pocket quickly. He notes that Robertson's striking is bad and she closes her eyes when hit, and that Rodriguez has the requisite control of distance and is a solid wrestler.
Expert Picks (7)
Angelo picks Gillian Robertson because she is a well-rounded fighter with a strong wrestling base, averaging almost three takedowns per fight. He believes Robertson will be more physical and work the fight to the ground, as JJ Aldrich has not faced someone as physical or wrestling-heavy. He notes that the -150 odds are spot on and expects the line to move further in Robertson's favor.
Big Brady picks the underdog JJ Aldrich to win by decision. He praises Aldrich's underrated grappling, takedown defense, and ability to control opponents on the mat, citing her performances against Vanessa Demopoulos and Paulina Viana. He notes Robertson has poor takedown defense (16%) and is content to play off her back, but Aldrich's BJJ is good enough to avoid submissions. He thinks Aldrich has more paths to victory: out-striking or controlling on the ground.
Cody picks Aldrich, citing her durability and striking advantage. He notes Robertson's cardio issues and Aldrich's training with Maverick. He likes the over 2.5 rounds as a bet.
Daniel Levi picks JJ Aldrich, arguing that Aldrich's stand-up is way higher than Robertson's and that she keeps her distance well. He believes if Aldrich stuffs the first few takedowns, Robertson will start flopping to her back, allowing Aldrich to take advantage. Levi acknowledges that if Robertson gets on top, Aldrich is a brown belt and can survive, but he sees Aldrich neutralizing Robertson and winning a decision.
Aldrich has good boxing and takedown defense, but hasn't faced a relentless grappler like Robertson recently. She can keep the fight standing and use top control if taken down. Robertson is a submission specialist but may struggle to get takedowns. Aldrich is predicted to win via decision, with the over 2.5 rounds also considered.
Paul picks Aldrich, citing her durability and striking. He notes Robertson's cardio issues and Aldrich's training with Maverick. He likes the over 2.5 rounds.
The MMA Guru picks JJ Aldrich over Gillian Robertson, going against the grain. He highlights Aldrich's takedown defense, noting she hasn't been taken down since 2019 and pops right back up. He believes Aldrich is capable on the feet, training with Rose Namajunas and Valentina Shevchenko, and that Robertson won't be able to utilize her grappling. He predicts a grinding decision or a late-round TKO, as Aldrich is tough to submit.
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