Career Averages - Guido Cannetti
Career Averages - Kris Moutinho
Guido Cannetti
Kris Moutinho
Guido Cannetti - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Bautista | 0 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 5 of 6 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 1 | 0 | 2:36 |
| Guido Cannetti | 0 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 5 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:16 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mario Bautista | 0 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 5 of 6 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 1 | 0 | 2:36 |
| Guido Cannetti | 0 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 5 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:16 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Bautista | 3 of 4 | 75% | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 |
| Guido Cannetti | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mario Bautista | 3 of 4 | 75% | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 |
| Guido Cannetti | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo is very confident in Mario Bautista, citing his youth, speed, wrestling, and grappling advantage over the 43-year-old Guido Cannetti. He believes Bautista will win inside the distance and considers that the most valuable bet. He notes the odds are wide but thinks Bautista should be a much heavier favorite.
Big Brady is very confident in Mario Bautista, calling him the biggest favorite on the card. He notes Bautista's wrestling and grappling look really good, and Cannetti has been finished four times by submission. Brady expects Bautista to get the fight down to the mat early and finish with a first-round submission, though he acknowledges Cannetti has power and Bautista's chin is in question.
Cody picks Bautista by submission, noting Cannetti's tendency to give up his back and get choked. He highlights Bautista's improved wrestling and Jiu-Jitsu, and thinks Cannetti's brawling style will lead to a submission loss.
Connor picks Bautista confidently, noting that Bautista has become an aggressive bully who overwhelms opponents with pressure and chain wrestling. He acknowledges Cannetti's early explosiveness but believes Bautista's durability and pace will wear him down, leading to a finish in the second round or later.
Bautista is on a three-fight winning streak and looking career-best. Cannetti is 43 years old at bantamweight, which is a huge disadvantage. Bautista's physical transformation and finishing ability should be too much. I expect a dominant finish within 10 minutes, likely by submission. This is a favorable matchup for Bautista to continue his rise.
Paul picks Bautista easily, noting Cannetti's age (43) and Bautista's improvements in grappling. He thinks Bautista can submit Cannetti, who has a history of getting choked out. He mentions a YOLO bet on Cannetti by first-round KO but prefers Bautista by submission.
The MMA Guru picks Mario Bautista, noting he is a 10-to-1 favorite but believes he should win. He highlights Bautista's recent performances, including a submission win over Keller and dominating Benito Lopez. He thinks Bautista is in his prime and will submit Cannetti.
Zane picks Bautista but is less confident than the odds suggest. He notes that Cannetti is a fast, powerful starter who could catch Bautista early, but Bautista's pressure and durability should take over as Cannetti fades. He compares it to Chandler vs Hooker, where either could win early but Bautista has the edge over time.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guido Cannetti | 0 | 8 of 13 | 61% | 8 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:09 |
| Randy Costa | 0 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guido Cannetti | 0 | 8 of 13 | 61% | 8 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:09 |
| Randy Costa | 0 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guido Cannetti | 8 of 13 | 61% | 1 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 5 | 8 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Randy Costa | 2 of 7 | 28% | 0 of 3 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guido Cannetti | 8 of 13 | 61% | 1 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 5 | 8 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Randy Costa | 2 of 7 | 28% | 0 of 3 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Cody picks Randy Costa to win, citing his striking and power. He notes that Costa has looked good in recent fights and that Cannetti is 42 and has durability issues. He expects an early finish and likes the under 2.5 rounds. He also sees value in Guido Cannetti as a live underdog if Costa fades.
Paul picks Randy Costa to win, but is not confident in the -300 moneyline. He expects Costa to come out fast and finish early, but acknowledges Costa's cardio issues. He is interested in props on Guido Cannetti if Costa fades. He believes the fight will not go the distance and likes the under 2.5 rounds prop.
The MMA Guru picks Guido Cannetti, believing he will knock out Randy Costa in the first round. He notes that both fighters fade after the first round, but Cannetti has power and Costa has a weak chin. He calls Costa 'wolf tickets' and criticizes the -300 price on Costa, saying anyone betting that has a gambling addiction. He expects a first-round KO from Cannetti.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guido Cannetti | 0 | 11 of 30 | 36% | 11 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kris Moutinho | 0 | 28 of 44 | 63% | 28 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guido Cannetti | 0 | 11 of 30 | 36% | 11 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kris Moutinho | 0 | 28 of 44 | 63% | 28 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guido Cannetti | 11 of 30 | 36% | 8 of 24 | 1 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 11 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Kris Moutinho | 28 of 44 | 63% | 18 of 31 | 5 of 7 | 5 of 6 | 21 of 37 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guido Cannetti | 11 of 30 | 36% | 8 of 24 | 1 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 11 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Kris Moutinho | 28 of 44 | 63% | 18 of 31 | 5 of 7 | 5 of 6 | 21 of 37 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo leans toward Kris Moutinho due to his durability, noting that he absorbed 230 strikes against Sean O'Malley and kept coming. He acknowledges that Guido Cannetti is a technical striker but aging, and that Moutinho is young and tough. However, he admits he has no strong read on this fight and that Cannetti could win a decision.
Big Brady hesitantly picks Kris Moutinho, citing Moutinho's youth (13 years younger), height and reach advantage, and better cardio. He acknowledges Cannetti is the better fighter but only has one round of cardio at 42 years old. He expects Moutinho to walk forward, eat punches, and take over late to win a close, greasy decision. He is not betting this fight, especially with Moutinho as a favorite.
Cody leans Moutinho, citing his youth and pressure. He notes Cannetti's age and suspect gas tank. He believes Moutinho's forward pressure will overwhelm Cannetti.
Daniel Levi picks Kris Moutinho, noting that Guido Cannetti is 43 years old and gasses out past the first round. He believes Moutinho's durability and volume will break Cannetti down, likely winning a decision. Levi acknowledges that Moutinho is not the best but thinks this matchup favors him against an aging opponent.
Moutinho is expected to land crisper shots down the middle and win via decision. However, the fight is highly volatile with many possible outcomes. Cannetti has leg kicks and power, but Moutinho's durability is a question. The host is not betting this fight due to volatility.
Paul leans Moutinho, citing his youth and pressure. He notes Cannetti's age and suspect gas tank. He believes Moutinho's forward pressure will overwhelm Cannetti.
The MMA Guru picks Guido Cannetti as an underdog over Kris Moutinho, believing Moutinho is 'garbage at fighting' despite his name value from the Sean O'Malley fight. He highlights Cannetti's underrated skills, including dominating Marlon Vera in the first round of their fight. He expects a grinding fight where Cannetti uses his grappling to take Moutinho down and win by TKO or submission. He plans to wait for better odds as money comes in on Moutinho.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leomana Martinez | 0 | 79 of 157 | 50% | 88 of 169 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:07 |
| Guido Cannetti | 0 | 66 of 109 | 60% | 68 of 111 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:28 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leomana Martinez | 0 | 19 of 32 | 59% | 21 of 35 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
| Guido Cannetti | 0 | 27 of 37 | 72% | 28 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:28 | |
| 2 | Leomana Martinez | 0 | 24 of 51 | 47% | 24 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Guido Cannetti | 0 | 23 of 40 | 57% | 23 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Leomana Martinez | 0 | 36 of 74 | 48% | 43 of 83 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:53 |
| Guido Cannetti | 0 | 16 of 32 | 50% | 17 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leomana Martinez | 79 of 157 | 50% | 35 of 98 | 31 of 44 | 13 of 15 | 72 of 147 | 3 of 4 | 4 of 6 |
| Guido Cannetti | 66 of 109 | 60% | 21 of 57 | 13 of 19 | 32 of 33 | 64 of 105 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leomana Martinez | 19 of 32 | 59% | 8 of 20 | 8 of 8 | 3 of 4 | 19 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Guido Cannetti | 27 of 37 | 72% | 5 of 11 | 6 of 9 | 16 of 17 | 25 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | |
| 2 | Leomana Martinez | 24 of 51 | 47% | 8 of 29 | 11 of 16 | 5 of 6 | 24 of 51 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Guido Cannetti | 23 of 40 | 57% | 8 of 22 | 4 of 7 | 11 of 11 | 23 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Leomana Martinez | 36 of 74 | 48% | 19 of 49 | 12 of 20 | 5 of 5 | 29 of 64 | 3 of 4 | 4 of 6 |
| Guido Cannetti | 16 of 32 | 50% | 8 of 24 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 5 | 16 of 31 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Martinez, citing his solid power, aggression, and constant stance switches that complicate things for opponents. He notes Cannetti is over 40, losing by stoppage, and needs to get the fight to the ground to win, which is unlikely. The only concern is Martinez's headspace after his coach died, but he still sees a mismatch.
Cody picks Martinez confidently, citing his power in both hands and aggressive style. He notes that Cannetti is 41 years old, has been knocked out multiple times, and looked old in his last fight. Cody thinks Martinez's takedown defense is solid and that he will knock Cannetti out early, likely in round one.
Jacob picks Martinez, emphasizing his power that hits like a middleweight and Cannetti's flat-footed movement and age. He expects Martinez to dominate and likely flatline Cannetti inside two and a half minutes. He plans to bet on a first-round stoppage for better odds.
Lock picks Martinez by KO at -110, expecting a violent fight. He notes both fighters have finishing ability and poor cardio, leading to an early finish. Lock likes the under 1.5 rounds and fight doesn't go to decision props. He thinks Martinez's power and durability give him the edge, but acknowledges Cannetti can crack too.
Paul picks Martinez, agreeing that he has power and that Cannetti is old and faded. He notes Martinez's wins over Ricky Turcios and Jose Johnson, showing he can finish good opponents. Paul thinks Martinez's takedown defense will keep the fight standing and lead to a knockout. He also likes the under 2.5 rounds and Martinez inside the distance.
The Guru picks Mana Martinez, citing his youth, momentum, and knockout power against the older Guido Cannetti, who is coming off a KO loss. He expects Martinez to start fast and finish by TKO in the first round. The Guru notes Cannetti's age (41) and history of being finished as key factors.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danaa Batgerel | 1 | 17 of 33 | 51% | 17 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Guido Cannetti | 0 | 11 of 23 | 47% | 11 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Danaa Batgerel | 1 | 17 of 33 | 51% | 17 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Guido Cannetti | 0 | 11 of 23 | 47% | 11 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danaa Batgerel | 17 of 33 | 51% | 16 of 29 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 12 of 27 | 0 of 1 | 5 of 5 |
| Guido Cannetti | 11 of 23 | 47% | 0 of 7 | 3 of 6 | 8 of 10 | 9 of 21 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Danaa Batgerel | 17 of 33 | 51% | 16 of 29 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 12 of 27 | 0 of 1 | 5 of 5 |
| Guido Cannetti | 11 of 23 | 47% | 0 of 7 | 3 of 6 | 8 of 10 | 9 of 21 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Daniel picks Danaa Batgerel to win, but with caution. He notes that Cannetti is explosive in the first round but tends to fade if he faces adversity. He believes Batgerel can take over in the second and third rounds and win a decision, but it's contingent on him not getting badly hurt in the first.
Both fighters are aggressive strikers; Batgerel is more technical, Cannetti is a brawler. The fight likely ends inside the distance. The host prefers betting under 2.5 rounds at plus money rather than picking a side. He picks Cannetti by TKO but is not confident enough to bet the moneyline.
The MMA Guru picks Danaa Batgerel based on his better UFC record (6-2) and youth advantage over the 40-year-old Guido Cannetti. He notes Cannetti is smaller with less reach and questions why he is still fighting at his age. He expects Batgerel to get the job done with his Asian power moves.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marlon Vera | 0 | 24 of 42 | 57% | 37 of 56 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:48 |
| Guido Cannetti | 1 | 24 of 35 | 68% | 36 of 48 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 1:21 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marlon Vera | 0 | 21 of 35 | 60% | 34 of 49 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:32 |
| Guido Cannetti | 0 | 8 of 13 | 61% | 20 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:53 | |
| 2 | Marlon Vera | 0 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:16 |
| Guido Cannetti | 1 | 16 of 22 | 72% | 16 of 22 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 0:28 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marlon Vera | 24 of 42 | 57% | 11 of 25 | 8 of 10 | 5 of 7 | 8 of 23 | 8 of 11 | 8 of 8 |
| Guido Cannetti | 24 of 35 | 68% | 13 of 18 | 10 of 14 | 1 of 3 | 3 of 10 | 17 of 19 | 4 of 6 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marlon Vera | 21 of 35 | 60% | 9 of 19 | 8 of 10 | 4 of 6 | 6 of 19 | 7 of 8 | 8 of 8 |
| Guido Cannetti | 8 of 13 | 61% | 0 of 3 | 7 of 8 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 3 | 6 of 8 | 1 of 2 | |
| 2 | Marlon Vera | 3 of 7 | 42% | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Guido Cannetti | 16 of 22 | 72% | 13 of 15 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 7 | 11 of 11 | 3 of 4 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Vera pushes Cannetti backward with a body kick, but the “Ninja” comes back at Vera with a Thai clinch and a knee to the body. Vera turns the tables with a quick takedown; Cannetti throws up an armbar, then jumps back on his feet when Vera lifts him for a slam. After tagging Vera with a combination, it’s Cannetti’s turn to score a takedown, slamming “Chito” to the floor at the base of the fence. Vera slowly works his way back to his feet, and the bantamweights disengage inside the three-minute mark. Vera is forced to cover up again as Cannetti blitzes him with wild punching combinations and body kicks, unconcerned with any of Vera’s attempted counters. Cannetti misses on a punch to the body, allowing Vera to wrap him up and push him to the fence. Vera stomps on Cannetti’s feet, but it’s the Argentine hitting an outside trip to put Vera on his back a second time. Cannetti spends 30 seconds trying to break Vera’s posture and find an opening for some ground-and-pound. Eventually, Cannetti stands up and kicks at the legs of Vera, keeping the Ecuadorian grounded until the end of the round.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round 10-9 Cannetti
Brian Knapp scores the round 10-9 Cannetti
Chris Nelson scores the round 10-9 Cannetti
Round 2
Vera attacks Cannetti with clinch knees, first to the body and then one to the head that sends “Ninja” to the canvas. As Cannetti stands up and drives on Vera’s legs, the Ecuadorian sizes him up for a guillotine and jumps guard. Cannetti frees himself from the choke, but after escaping to his feet, Vera keeps him trapped on the fence to tee off with more knees and punches. Vera reaps the leg of Cannetti and trips him to the ground, then
attaches himself to Cannetti’s back with a body triangle and forces him to tap out
with a lightning fast rear-naked choke.
The Official Result
Marlon Vera def. Guido Cannetti via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) R2 1:31
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guido Cannetti | 0 | 22 of 46 | 47% | 26 of 50 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 1 | 0 | 3:04 |
| Diego Rivas | 0 | 25 of 53 | 47% | 44 of 75 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 | 1 | 5:55 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guido Cannetti | 0 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 3 of 4 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:20 |
| Diego Rivas | 0 | 13 of 19 | 68% | 25 of 33 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:37 | |
| 2 | Guido Cannetti | 0 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 6 of 8 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Diego Rivas | 0 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 11 of 14 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 3:15 | |
| 3 | Guido Cannetti | 0 | 16 of 37 | 43% | 17 of 38 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:44 |
| Diego Rivas | 0 | 8 of 28 | 28% | 8 of 28 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guido Cannetti | 22 of 46 | 47% | 10 of 23 | 7 of 17 | 5 of 6 | 8 of 31 | 13 of 14 | 1 of 1 |
| Diego Rivas | 25 of 53 | 47% | 12 of 35 | 6 of 11 | 7 of 7 | 10 of 32 | 7 of 12 | 8 of 9 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guido Cannetti | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Diego Rivas | 13 of 19 | 68% | 9 of 14 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 3 | 5 of 8 | 7 of 8 | |
| 2 | Guido Cannetti | 3 of 5 | 60% | 1 of 1 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Diego Rivas | 4 of 6 | 66% | 1 of 2 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Guido Cannetti | 16 of 37 | 43% | 9 of 22 | 5 of 12 | 2 of 3 | 6 of 26 | 10 of 11 | 0 of 0 |
| Diego Rivas | 8 of 28 | 28% | 2 of 19 | 1 of 4 | 5 of 5 | 6 of 24 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyung Ho Kang | 0 | 3 of 11 | 27% | 28 of 36 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 0:38 |
| Guido Cannetti | 0 | 19 of 39 | 48% | 22 of 42 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:26 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kyung Ho Kang | 0 | 3 of 11 | 27% | 28 of 36 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 0:38 |
| Guido Cannetti | 0 | 19 of 39 | 48% | 22 of 42 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:26 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyung Ho Kang | 3 of 11 | 27% | 3 of 9 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 |
| Guido Cannetti | 19 of 39 | 48% | 12 of 29 | 4 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 9 of 29 | 5 of 5 | 5 of 5 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kyung Ho Kang | 3 of 11 | 27% | 3 of 9 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 |
| Guido Cannetti | 19 of 39 | 48% | 12 of 29 | 4 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 9 of 29 | 5 of 5 | 5 of 5 |
Kris Moutinho - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cristian Quiñonez | 0 | 38 of 61 | 62% | 54 of 80 | 7 of 10 | 70% | 2 | 0 | 7:06 |
| Kris Moutinho | 0 | 28 of 71 | 39% | 32 of 75 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:31 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cristian Quiñonez | 0 | 23 of 37 | 62% | 24 of 40 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:01 |
| Kris Moutinho | 0 | 16 of 39 | 41% | 16 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Cristian Quiñonez | 0 | 8 of 11 | 72% | 20 of 23 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 2 | 0 | 4:05 |
| Kris Moutinho | 0 | 7 of 14 | 50% | 7 of 14 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 | |
| 3 | Cristian Quiñonez | 0 | 7 of 13 | 53% | 10 of 17 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:00 |
| Kris Moutinho | 0 | 5 of 18 | 27% | 9 of 22 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cristian Quiñonez | 38 of 61 | 62% | 34 of 53 | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 35 of 58 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
| Kris Moutinho | 28 of 71 | 39% | 13 of 51 | 7 of 11 | 8 of 9 | 28 of 71 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cristian Quiñonez | 23 of 37 | 62% | 20 of 30 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 23 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Kris Moutinho | 16 of 39 | 41% | 6 of 27 | 3 of 4 | 7 of 8 | 16 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Cristian Quiñonez | 8 of 11 | 72% | 7 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Kris Moutinho | 7 of 14 | 50% | 3 of 7 | 3 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Cristian Quiñonez | 7 of 13 | 53% | 7 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
| Kris Moutinho | 5 of 18 | 27% | 4 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Cristian Quiñonez because Kris Moutinho is a 'human punching bag' who has absorbed 283 strikes and been knocked out three times in the UFC. He acknowledges Quiñonez is not great either, but at least he has won in the UFC. He warns against betting at -650 odds, calling it not worth it.
Big Brady picks Cristian Quiñonez, calling Kris Moutinho a non-UFC-level fighter with terrible striking defense (29%). He notes Moutinho has been knocked out five times and finished in all losses. Brady believes Quiñonez will hit Moutinho hard and knock him out, predicting a first-round knockout.
Cody also fades Quiñonez at -700, pointing out his inactivity and lack of recent wins. He sees Moutinho as a live dog if he can push the pace and exploit Quiñonez's potential cardio issues.
Connor picks Quiñonez, noting that Moutinho is a sacrificial lamb who has been knocked out in every UFC fight. Quiñonez is not a big step up but is still a step up, and his pressure and size should be too much for Moutinho's limited game.
Daniel does not discuss this fight in the transcript.
The host considers this a clear dog-or-pass fight. Quiñonez is a heavy favorite at -687, but the host cannot bet him at that price. Moutinho is tough but gets rocked often, lacks knockout power, and is unlikely to outgrapple Quiñonez. The host doubts Moutinho has a realistic path to victory and will not bet this fight.
James believes Quiñonez is far more skilled and powerful than Moutinho, who has a suspect chin after recent KOs. He predicts an early KO for Quiñonez, possibly in round one.
The host picks Quiñonez but is hesitant due to the high price and altitude concerns. He notes Quiñonez's skill advantage but worries about his cardio and past submission losses. He thinks Moutinho's pressure and pace could cause issues if Quiñonez fades. He suggests a flyer on Moutinho by late finish but officially picks Quiñonez by decision.
Paul is leaning towards Moutinho at +500, citing Quiñonez's long layoff, ring rust, and recent losses. He notes Moutinho's pressure and durability, and plans to bet Moutinho despite the risk.
The MMA Guru picks Cristian Quiñonez, calling Kris Moutinho 'garbage' and noting that Moutinho has no wins over good fighters, while Quiñonez has beaten Khalid Taha and Vinicius Oliveira. He predicts an easy TKO finish in the early rounds, citing Moutinho's lack of skill and Quiñonez's superior competition.
Zane picks Quiñonez because he is a step up from Moutinho, who is a one-dimensional brawler with no other options. Quiñonez showed good ideas against Hani Barcelos, pressing forward and testing his wrestling. Moutinho has been knocked out in every UFC fight and is not UFC level.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malcolm Wellmaker | 1 | 25 of 39 | 64% | 25 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
| Kris Moutinho | 0 | 6 of 27 | 22% | 7 of 28 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Malcolm Wellmaker | 1 | 25 of 39 | 64% | 25 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
| Kris Moutinho | 0 | 6 of 27 | 22% | 7 of 28 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malcolm Wellmaker | 25 of 39 | 64% | 11 of 23 | 9 of 10 | 5 of 6 | 22 of 36 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Kris Moutinho | 6 of 27 | 22% | 3 of 23 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 26 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Malcolm Wellmaker | 25 of 39 | 64% | 11 of 23 | 9 of 10 | 5 of 6 | 22 of 36 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Kris Moutinho | 6 of 27 | 22% | 3 of 23 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 26 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Wellmaker (-1450), Moutinho (+850)
Round 1
In what may serve as the widest betting discrepancy of any UFC match this year, the unbeaten flamethrower Wellmaker (9-0, 1-0 UFC) clocks in with prohibitive odds somewhere around -2000 depending on one’s book of choice. Late replacement Moutinho (14-6, 0-2 UFC), with the comeback around +950, knows what it is like to face tough opposition in the Octagon, and he is back after stringing together a slew of wins on the regional scene. Whether he has picked up any new tricks since being away, referee Brent McKeehan will see them first. What bettors consider a complete squash match begins without glove touch, and what happens next is anyone’s guess. This sport does not always play out relative to expectations or betting lines. Wellmaker jabs the body with a kick, and Moutinho ignores it and meanders forward. Wellmaker chips at his front leg twice, turning his foe around the second time. A third one, Moutinho tries to catch it but ends up eating a left hook for his trouble. Wellmaker chips at him with kicks to the body and lead leg, and he jabs to the midsection as well. Wellmaker dings Moutinho with a vicious right hand, and he backs Moutinho off with a swarm of punches. Moutinho bounces off the fencing and tries to tie up the hard-swinging undefeated fighter, and Wellmaker breaks free and scores a leg kick. Moutinho clips Wellmaker with a right hand, and Wellmaker responds with a vicious left that snaps the head back. Moutinho considers a level change, kneeing his man in the body but taking an elbow before Wellmaker backs off. Moutinho pushes forward, tripping himself up while throwing and falling to the ground. Wellmaker lets him back up, and he cracks his opponent with a body shot and a right hand up top.
Wellmaker digs a kick to the body, setting up a short but destructive right hand that cleans Moutinho’s clock. The wrecked Massachusetts native falls flat on his face, and Wellmaker walks away, nothing more left to do today but party.
Wellmaker drops to his knees while waiting for medical professionals to tend to Moutinho, who comes to and is able to stand back up. Wellmaker jumps to the top of the cage to drink in the love and admiration of his home state fans, and the place is as loud as can be after that mighty knockout.
The Official Result
Malcolm Wellmaker def. Kris Moutinho R1 2:37 via KO (Punch)
Angelo is extremely confident in Wellmaker, calling him a powerful striker with great accuracy and timing. He notes that Moutinho is not durable and has been finished in most losses. He believes Wellmaker will maul Moutinho.
Big Brady picks Malcolm Wellmaker by first-round knockout, calling it a mismatch. He criticizes Kris Moutinho's terrible striking defense (28%) and notes he has been knocked out by lesser competition. He believes Wellmaker hits like a truck and will finish Moutinho early.
Wellmaker is the superior striker and will showcase that, but his defensive mistakes could allow Moutinho to capitalize. Despite picking Wellmaker to win, the minus-300 odds are considered too wide to trust.
The Guru picks Malcolm Wellmaker, praising his power and athleticism. He contrasts Wellmaker's counter hook with Sean O'Malley's straight punches, arguing Moutinho can absorb straight shots but will be vulnerable to Wellmaker's hooks. He predicts a first-round KO, calling it an 'absolute mismatch.' He also mentions a prop bet on Wellmaker landing under 27.5 significant strikes.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guido Cannetti | 0 | 11 of 30 | 36% | 11 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kris Moutinho | 0 | 28 of 44 | 63% | 28 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guido Cannetti | 0 | 11 of 30 | 36% | 11 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kris Moutinho | 0 | 28 of 44 | 63% | 28 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guido Cannetti | 11 of 30 | 36% | 8 of 24 | 1 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 11 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Kris Moutinho | 28 of 44 | 63% | 18 of 31 | 5 of 7 | 5 of 6 | 21 of 37 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guido Cannetti | 11 of 30 | 36% | 8 of 24 | 1 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 11 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Kris Moutinho | 28 of 44 | 63% | 18 of 31 | 5 of 7 | 5 of 6 | 21 of 37 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo leans toward Kris Moutinho due to his durability, noting that he absorbed 230 strikes against Sean O'Malley and kept coming. He acknowledges that Guido Cannetti is a technical striker but aging, and that Moutinho is young and tough. However, he admits he has no strong read on this fight and that Cannetti could win a decision.
Big Brady hesitantly picks Kris Moutinho, citing Moutinho's youth (13 years younger), height and reach advantage, and better cardio. He acknowledges Cannetti is the better fighter but only has one round of cardio at 42 years old. He expects Moutinho to walk forward, eat punches, and take over late to win a close, greasy decision. He is not betting this fight, especially with Moutinho as a favorite.
Cody leans Moutinho, citing his youth and pressure. He notes Cannetti's age and suspect gas tank. He believes Moutinho's forward pressure will overwhelm Cannetti.
Daniel Levi picks Kris Moutinho, noting that Guido Cannetti is 43 years old and gasses out past the first round. He believes Moutinho's durability and volume will break Cannetti down, likely winning a decision. Levi acknowledges that Moutinho is not the best but thinks this matchup favors him against an aging opponent.
Moutinho is expected to land crisper shots down the middle and win via decision. However, the fight is highly volatile with many possible outcomes. Cannetti has leg kicks and power, but Moutinho's durability is a question. The host is not betting this fight due to volatility.
Paul leans Moutinho, citing his youth and pressure. He notes Cannetti's age and suspect gas tank. He believes Moutinho's forward pressure will overwhelm Cannetti.
The MMA Guru picks Guido Cannetti as an underdog over Kris Moutinho, believing Moutinho is 'garbage at fighting' despite his name value from the Sean O'Malley fight. He highlights Cannetti's underrated skills, including dominating Marlon Vera in the first round of their fight. He expects a grinding fight where Cannetti uses his grappling to take Moutinho down and win by TKO or submission. He plans to wait for better odds as money comes in on Moutinho.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean O'Malley | 1 | 230 of 318 | 72% | 230 of 318 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Kris Moutinho | 0 | 70 of 218 | 32% | 70 of 218 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sean O'Malley | 1 | 77 of 106 | 72% | 77 of 106 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Kris Moutinho | 0 | 24 of 72 | 33% | 24 of 72 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Sean O'Malley | 0 | 70 of 98 | 71% | 70 of 98 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kris Moutinho | 0 | 19 of 68 | 27% | 19 of 68 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 | |
| 3 | Sean O'Malley | 0 | 83 of 114 | 72% | 83 of 114 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kris Moutinho | 0 | 27 of 78 | 34% | 27 of 78 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean O'Malley | 230 of 318 | 72% | 177 of 255 | 45 of 55 | 8 of 8 | 228 of 314 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 1 |
| Kris Moutinho | 70 of 218 | 32% | 39 of 168 | 7 of 22 | 24 of 28 | 69 of 217 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sean O'Malley | 77 of 106 | 72% | 59 of 88 | 15 of 15 | 3 of 3 | 77 of 105 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
| Kris Moutinho | 24 of 72 | 33% | 11 of 55 | 2 of 5 | 11 of 12 | 24 of 72 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Sean O'Malley | 70 of 98 | 71% | 53 of 75 | 15 of 21 | 2 of 2 | 68 of 95 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Kris Moutinho | 19 of 68 | 27% | 12 of 54 | 4 of 10 | 3 of 4 | 18 of 67 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Sean O'Malley | 83 of 114 | 72% | 65 of 92 | 15 of 19 | 3 of 3 | 83 of 114 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Kris Moutinho | 27 of 78 | 34% | 16 of 59 | 1 of 7 | 10 of 12 | 27 of 78 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
The main card opener draws a short-notice replacement for O’Malley (13-1, 5-1 UFC), who now meets newcomer Moutinho (9-4, 0-0 UFC) in a bantamweight clash of unusually colored hair. Referee Herb Dean neglected to dye his own hair for this fight, and there is no glove touch before the two get after it. Moutinho comes out guns blazing, swinging at the heavy favorite but getting kicked away on the way forward. O’Malley kicks the body and leg a few times, and Moutinho is not concerned as he continues to press ahead. O’Malley scores with long, reaching punches as Moutinho rushes in recklessly, and Moutinho gets his head snapped back with a counter punch. Moutinho gets off a few leg kicks of his own to make O’Malley stumble, and he keeps his foot on the accelerator as he stalks “Sugar” down. Three crisp punches land from O’Malley, and a front kick and a head kick come up quickly. O’Malley stings Moutinho with several punches, and Moutinho wears it well even as his green hair flows around from every blow. Moutinho marches straight at O’Malley, not cutting angles or doing anything besides walking directly at O’Malley and trying to swarm him with punches. O’Malley rings the Massachusetts native’s bell with an uppercut and several more punches, and he decides to start showboating instead of finishing his foe off. O’Malley lands flush to the head and body without issue, and the green-haired Moutinho walks through them without wobbling. O’Malley clips him with a left hand coming in, and Moutinho charges fearlessly even as he gets tagged repeatedly. Moutinho kicks the leg, O’Malley scores with a right hand, and a front kick and a right hand follow as O’Malley’s accuracy is virtually perfect. Moutinho laughs off strikes as he absorbs them, and surprises O’Malley with a right hand as he leaps ahead. Moutinho digs his shin into O’Malley’s lead leg, and he points at his opponent when he lands it. Moutinho lands low with a kick and absorbs punches and knees without even flinching. Moutinho springs at him with looping right hands, and O’Malley counters well and staggers him. Moutinho gets cracked with a crisp right hand and falls to the ground, and O’Malley hunts for a choke but cannot get it in time. Moutinho barely is able to make it to his corner between rounds, but he does make it to the end of the first period.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 O’Malley
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-8 O’Malley
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 O’Malley
Round 2
Moutinho is still hurt after trying the one-minute recovery period, but when the bell rings, he rushes at O’Malley with big punches. O’Malley continues to tag him with punches up top, and he snaps Moutinho’s head back with several jabs and mixes it up with front kicks. Moutinho eats a spinning kick to the body, and O’Malley winds up with a body kick and a head kick. The chin on Moutinho cannot be questioned as he plods forward seemingly unfazed as he gets clobbered with quick strikes. Moutinho gets off a few kicks to the body while he pursues O’Malley, and he throws hammers but cannot find their target. O’Malley makes Moutinho’s knees weak with a barrage of blows, but Moutinho is a resolute newcomer as he walks through a head kick. Moutinho walks face-first into a right hand, and he shakes it off and continues to give chase. Moutinho throws with everything he has at “Sugar,” and O’Malley is there to dodge the majority of the strikes and counter him effectively. Moutinho stalks O’Malley down but he misses with his bombs as O’Malley touches him again and again with crisp punches and clean front kicks. Moutinho shrugs off the powerful strikes, even rolling with a huge right hand from O’Malley, and he swarms O’Malley but ends up colliding with his guard. Moutinho walks through a punch to land a right hand, and he digs another to the body as O’Malley takes a deep breath. Moutinho welcomes a brawl, and when he gets one, he knocks O’Malley’s mouthpiece out. O’Malley ducks and blasts Moutinho in the face with a right hand, and he looks shocked that Moutinho is able to take it and keep coming. Moutinho ignores a front kick to the body to tie him up against the fence, and he lands a few short shots on the inside before the bell sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 O’Malley
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 O’Malley
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 O’Malley
Round 3
O’Malley opens the round with a stomp kick to the knee, and when he lands another leg kick, Moutinho starts talking to his opponent. Moutinho races forward to attack, and he eats punches and has his nose busted up but is not concerned. He manages to get off a few punches, and he may have stunned O’Malley for a moment with a barrage. O’Malley ducks and cracks his man, taking deep breaths and landing effectively with practically everything he throws. Moutinho shakes his head after O’Malley kicks him in the head, and he blitzes O’Malley but cannot corner him. Moutinho kicks O’Malley’s lead leg several times and surprises O’Malley with a right hook, but O’Malley replies with a trio of big punches. O’Malley digs a few front kicks to the body and overhand rights score one after the other, and Moutinho is bloodied but still walking forward as Terminator comparisons ring true for the newcomer. O’Malley smashes Moutinho in the face with several insane right hands, and Moutinho keeps his pace and pressure without budging. Moutinho eats a right hand and a stiff body kick, and he lands a right hand and points at O’Malley. Moutinho sneaks up a head kick and the two land right hands at the same time, but O’Malley strings together several more before Moutinho can get there. O’Malley is the matador in this fight, scoring again and again as Moutinho shrugs it off. O’Malley punishes Moutinho with a long salvo of punches, and as Moutinho is ready to fire back, Dean leaps in to call off the fight with an unexpected standing TKO. Dean may have saved Moutinho from 30 more seconds of brain trauma, as the strike totals were approaching Max Holloway numbers, but Moutinho was not out on his feet and was still throwing right back at his opponent. Fans are not thrilled by that stoppage, and it’s hard to disagree with them. O’Malley was working Moutinho over, and the numbers will back that up, but Moutinho was still in the fight and ready to battle to the bitter end.
The Official Result
Sean O’Malley def. Kris Moutinho R3 4:33 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo is all-in on O'Malley, calling it a mismatch. He notes O'Malley's power, accuracy, and athleticism, and that Moutinho is a tough wrestler but gets hit and marches forward, which plays into O'Malley's strengths. He has O'Malley in his DraftKings lineup despite the high price.
Big Brady picks Sean O'Malley to win by first-round knockout. He notes O'Malley's power and accuracy, and that Moutinho has no striking defense and comes forward with his hands down. He expects an easy walk-off knockout. He mentions that betting on O'Malley inside the distance at -320 is insane but thinks O'Malley should finish early.
Cody picks O'Malley to win by TKO in round 2. He notes Moutinho's short notice and regional level, and O'Malley's striking advantage. He thinks O'Malley will take his time in round 1 and finish in round 2. He likes the round 2 prop at +300.
Daniel Levi picks Sean O'Malley to win easily. He believes Moutinho is a short-notice replacement who comes to bang but will likely get knocked out. He notes O'Malley's power and that Moutinho is not a leg kicker, so O'Malley's weakness won't be exploited. He expects a knockout or submission for O'Malley, and dismisses criticism that O'Malley ducked tougher opponents, explaining that few could make weight on short notice.
Jacob also picks O'Malley, stating he would have picked him regardless of opponent. He thinks O'Malley is extremely talented and will dominate. He notes that even at 9500, O'Malley is a deal. He expects an early stoppage and advises going less less on the strike line.
O'Malley is going to destroy Moutinho. Moutinho doesn't belong in the UFC; he's a short-notice replacement with losses to low-level guys. O'Malley is much taller and more skilled. I expect a quick knockout, probably in the first round. I like O'Malley by first-round KO at plus money. He'll get a performance bonus and then sit out again.
Paul picks O'Malley, expecting a TKO. He notes Moutinho's regional level and O'Malley's highlight-reel finishes. He thinks O'Malley will win, possibly in round 2. He mentions the under 1.5 rounds as a decent play.
The Guru predicts O'Malley will win by first-round head kick KO. He expects O'Malley to avoid Moutinho's leg kicks, then chop at Moutinho's lead leg with his own kicks, spinning him around. Moutinho plods forward and sits heavy on his lead leg, making him vulnerable. O'Malley will land a right hand, then disguise a head kick behind it to finish Moutinho. The Guru sees no other way the fight goes.
Expert Picks (7)
Angelo leans toward Kris Moutinho due to his durability, noting that he absorbed 230 strikes against Sean O'Malley and kept coming. He acknowledges that Guido Cannetti is a technical striker but aging, and that Moutinho is young and tough. However, he admits he has no strong read on this fight and that Cannetti could win a decision.
Big Brady hesitantly picks Kris Moutinho, citing Moutinho's youth (13 years younger), height and reach advantage, and better cardio. He acknowledges Cannetti is the better fighter but only has one round of cardio at 42 years old. He expects Moutinho to walk forward, eat punches, and take over late to win a close, greasy decision. He is not betting this fight, especially with Moutinho as a favorite.
Cody leans Moutinho, citing his youth and pressure. He notes Cannetti's age and suspect gas tank. He believes Moutinho's forward pressure will overwhelm Cannetti.
Daniel Levi picks Kris Moutinho, noting that Guido Cannetti is 43 years old and gasses out past the first round. He believes Moutinho's durability and volume will break Cannetti down, likely winning a decision. Levi acknowledges that Moutinho is not the best but thinks this matchup favors him against an aging opponent.
Moutinho is expected to land crisper shots down the middle and win via decision. However, the fight is highly volatile with many possible outcomes. Cannetti has leg kicks and power, but Moutinho's durability is a question. The host is not betting this fight due to volatility.
Paul leans Moutinho, citing his youth and pressure. He notes Cannetti's age and suspect gas tank. He believes Moutinho's forward pressure will overwhelm Cannetti.
The MMA Guru picks Guido Cannetti as an underdog over Kris Moutinho, believing Moutinho is 'garbage at fighting' despite his name value from the Sean O'Malley fight. He highlights Cannetti's underrated skills, including dominating Marlon Vera in the first round of their fight. He expects a grinding fight where Cannetti uses his grappling to take Moutinho down and win by TKO or submission. He plans to wait for better odds as money comes in on Moutinho.
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