Career Averages - Drew Dober
Career Averages - Terrance McKinney
Drew Dober
Terrance McKinney
Drew Dober - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Dober | 1 | 22 of 55 | 40% | 22 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Michael Johnson | 0 | 27 of 76 | 35% | 27 of 76 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Drew Dober | 0 | 11 of 29 | 37% | 11 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Michael Johnson | 0 | 18 of 51 | 35% | 18 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Drew Dober | 1 | 11 of 26 | 42% | 11 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Michael Johnson | 0 | 9 of 25 | 36% | 9 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Dober | 22 of 55 | 40% | 9 of 33 | 7 of 14 | 6 of 8 | 21 of 54 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Michael Johnson | 27 of 76 | 35% | 18 of 55 | 0 of 11 | 9 of 10 | 27 of 76 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Drew Dober | 11 of 29 | 37% | 2 of 14 | 5 of 9 | 4 of 6 | 11 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Michael Johnson | 18 of 51 | 35% | 9 of 31 | 0 of 11 | 9 of 9 | 18 of 51 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Drew Dober | 11 of 26 | 42% | 7 of 19 | 2 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Michael Johnson | 9 of 25 | 36% | 9 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 9 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Drew Dober as a slight underdog over Michael Johnson, but with very low confidence. He notes Johnson is inconsistent and his recent wins are against weak competition, while Dober's chin may be fading after brutal KO losses. However, Brady thinks Dober hits harder and could catch Johnson, predicting a second-round KO. He acknowledges the fight is a toss-up and trusts neither fighter.
Cody picks Johnson, citing his better speed, boxing, and reach advantage. He notes Dober's recent knockout losses and regression, while Johnson is on a three-fight win streak. He expects Johnson to win by knockout or decision.
Connor picks Johnson, citing Dober's clear decline in recent fights, especially the Kyle Propolek fight where Dober looked slow and unfocused. He notes that Johnson has maintained a consistent level and still has sharp counterpunching and good first-level takedown defense. Connor believes Dober's durability has faded and his pressure style leaves him open to counters, which Johnson can exploit.
Daniel Vreeland leans toward Drew Dober as an underdog, expecting an early scare followed by a late knockout. He notes that Michael Johnson's speed fades with age, and Dober's durability and power can turn the tide. Vreeland compares it to Dober's fight against Bobby Green, where he took punishment early and finished later.
James picks Michael Johnson because he is faster and hits just as hard as Dober, and he expects Johnson to land first. He notes Dober's declining durability and hittability, making him vulnerable to a knockout. James predicts a KO finish, likely by Johnson, and suggests betting on the fight ending via KO.
Johnson is the better technical striker with cleaner counters. Dober is explosive but vulnerable to counters. Johnson's speed and power should allow him to land a big shot and put Dober away. Johnson by knockout.
Paul agrees with Cody, picking Johnson due to his power, volume, and footwork. He mentions Dober's durability issues and Johnson's ability to fight to his opponent's level. He expects Johnson to either knock Dober out or win a decision.
The MMA Guru picks Drew Dober, believing he will walk through Johnson's shots and land a KO. He compares it to the Bobby Green fight and predicts a second-round TKO. He mentions Dober's whiteboard and obsession with finishing Johnson.
Zane also picks Johnson, agreeing with Connor's assessment. He emphasizes that Dober's recent performances show a fighter who is no longer present in the moment, similar to Tony Ferguson's decline. Zane notes that Johnson's speed and counterpunching are still dangerous, and Dober's tendency to lead with his face makes him vulnerable. He sees Johnson as the more reliable fighter at this stage.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Prepolec | 0 | 51 of 164 | 31% | 51 of 164 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Drew Dober | 0 | 83 of 161 | 51% | 85 of 163 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kyle Prepolec | 0 | 17 of 66 | 25% | 17 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Drew Dober | 0 | 28 of 58 | 48% | 28 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Kyle Prepolec | 0 | 27 of 80 | 33% | 27 of 80 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Drew Dober | 0 | 35 of 58 | 60% | 36 of 59 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Kyle Prepolec | 0 | 7 of 18 | 38% | 7 of 18 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Drew Dober | 0 | 20 of 45 | 44% | 21 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Prepolec | 51 of 164 | 31% | 36 of 139 | 7 of 13 | 8 of 12 | 51 of 164 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Drew Dober | 83 of 161 | 51% | 46 of 117 | 18 of 22 | 19 of 22 | 77 of 153 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kyle Prepolec | 17 of 66 | 25% | 11 of 53 | 3 of 7 | 3 of 6 | 17 of 66 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Drew Dober | 28 of 58 | 48% | 12 of 40 | 5 of 7 | 11 of 11 | 28 of 58 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Kyle Prepolec | 27 of 80 | 33% | 20 of 70 | 3 of 5 | 4 of 5 | 27 of 80 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Drew Dober | 35 of 58 | 60% | 18 of 36 | 11 of 13 | 6 of 9 | 35 of 58 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Kyle Prepolec | 7 of 18 | 38% | 5 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Drew Dober | 20 of 45 | 44% | 16 of 41 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 14 of 37 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Dober (-500); Prepolec (+375)
Round 1
Chins will be tested when this lightweight matchup is all said and done. Dober (27-15, 1 NC; 13-11, 1 NC UFC) may be one of the quietest recordholders in the promotion, as he and Dustin Poirier remain tied for the most knockouts (nine) in the history of the division. He gains a fortuitous matchup in Canada’s Prepolec (18-9, 0-3 UFC), who with a win tonight would earn his first in the Octagon after four efforts. The two will be joined by referee John Cooper, who will keep things on the up-and-up as the fighters choose not to touch gloves.
Prepolec offers an early low kick, and he leans back out of range from a check right hook. Both men land at the end of punches, and Dober scores a low kick behind it. Dober turns his hips behind another hefty leg kick, and he fires one more off and cracks Prepolec with a left hand. Prepolec boots Dober in the face with his shin, and Dober completely ignores it and pops him with a one-two. Dober has his guard up to defend against a high kick the next time, and he swats away all but a body shot from the Canadian. Dober lunges in with a flurry of punches, his left hook finding the target. Dober goes low with a kick and high upstairs with a right hand. A Dober left misses by a hair, and Prepolec’s counters fall short as well. Dober pounds the front leg and puts fists on face immediately thereafter, with Prepolec left playing second fiddle with little more than an overhand left.
Dober scores with his left and chops the front leg with a kick, and he aims a body shot but is kicked back by the Canadian. Dober reaches with his big left, and his body kick plants on the torso. Dober kicks the thigh, and the leg brushes up against the cup. Prepolec waves Cooper off and they keep going. Dober’s kicks have started to have an impact on Prepolec’s front wheel, as Prepolec is ginger on it and open to big left hands. Dober catches him at the end of his left, and he flashes out a few jabs to set up a body shot. Dober backs his man off only to walk into a combination, and Prepolec grins. Even when Prepolec blocks a head kick, the impact of it bangs into his head. Dober whiffs on a wheel kick, clearly feeling himself in the Octagon. Prepolec doubles up jabs to mark up Dober’s nose, and he slips a punch and scores a straight left. Both men toss out head kicks, and Prepolec goes to the body. Prepolec’s jabs further bloody Dober’s nose, and the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dober
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Dober
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Dober
Round 2
The lightweights bump fists this round, and Dober says hello with a low kick that transitions into a wheel kick. Prepolec tries to defend a low kick by raising his knee, but that only opens Dober up to throw a body shot. Prepolec strings together his own counters, and Dober takes them on the chin and swings back with bad intentions. Prepolec gets back behind his jab and two, and the nose of Dober begins to leak again. Prepolec checks a kick with an audible thud to it and splits Dober’s shin wide open, and he punches Dober in the face with both fists—one after the other, not at once. Dober shrugs it off and tries to brawl, only for Prepolec to answer him with two upstairs and a head kick. Dober rips the body and jams a kick on the lead leg, and Prepolec is ginger on it after taking damage. Dober kicks it on the inside and swipes out with a pair of hooks, and his left hand is catching the Canadian but not seeming to slow him. Dober gets off the wheel kick he was seeking, banging it into Prepolec’s raised guard. Dober slips a punch and counters with a big left hand up top.
Dober leaps forward behind a Superman punch, and Prepolec’s chin holds up well as he tanks it and hurls back. Dober goes to the body, and Prepolec returns fire with a few punches and a head kick that Dober rolls. Prepolec checks another kick, and Dober stumbles back from it. Prepolec slaps his foe’s inside thigh, and Dober blasts him with a left hand. Prepolec tries to spin through it with a back fist, but it is out of range. Prepolec snaps Dober’s head back with a right hand, and Dober belts him in the belly with his non-damaged shin. Dober opens up with power punches, and Prepolec stands in the pocket and bangs with him, even shaking Dober up with a left hand. Dober suddenly shoots in for a single-leg takedown, and Prepolec sits him up and staves it off. Both men stand up, and Dober bounces a left hand off the temple and releases his opponent’s leg. Prepolec chains a left hand into a head kick, and Dober is wearing it at this point but has hit Prepolec with everything and the kitchen sink. Prepolec splits the guard with an uppercut, and he knocks Dober to his knees with a ferocious left hand. Right before Prepolec is about to annihilate Dober with what would be an illegal soccer kick with Dober’s knee down, the round ends and Cooper is between them.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Prepolec
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Prepolec
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Prepolec
Round 3
When the last round begins, Dober shouts, “Let’s do it!” They nod to one another, touch gloves, and swing for the fences. Prepolec boots Dober in the face with his foot, and Dober races after him with flailing punches. Dober unleashes a low kick with everything behind it, and it crashes directly into Prepolec’s cup. Prepolec collapses to the floor, and Cooper goes to the Canadian and practically begs him to take as much time as he needs instead of hurrying back. The partisan crowd starts a booming, profane chant of “F--- Drew Dober,” as Prepolec is in agony on his knees. Two minutes into the five-minute window, and Prepolec stands back up, albeit hunched over. Cooper keeps Prepolec informed of how much time he has left, and Prepolec responds that he is starting to feel better. Due to the severity of the foul, Cooper elects to deduct one point from Dober—this is the right call given the fight-changing nature of the illegal kick. Prepolec asks for them to restart the fight, and after 4:10 of recovery time, he is good to go.
Dober rushes after the Canadian and starts swinging for the bleachers. Practically sprinting at his opponent, Dober hurls punches in bunches and knocks Prepolec’s head around the cage. Prepolec leans over and takes a brutal knee to the chest that further makes him double over. Prepolec skirts away, and Dober rushes after him with one goal in mind: smash the Canadian’s face. Dober takes the counters that Prepolec offers, including a head kick or two, because he is a man possessed.
Backing Prepolec up against the cage, Dober blasts his man with a knee, an elbow and one final surge of punches. With Prepolec leaned over in bad shape, Cooper saves him from further punishment, and the fans are not having it.
Dober apologizes to the Vancouver masses for sending their fighter out like that, and they appear to accept his apology and stop raining down boos. While claps are sporadic, a few in the building realize the significance of Dober now the solo recordholder for the most knockouts in UFC lightweight history with 10.
The Official Result
Drew Dober def. Kyle Prepolec R3 1:16 via TKO (Elbow and Punches)
Angelo picks Drew Dober to win, citing his technical striking and ability to grapple if needed. He notes Dober's recent chin issues but believes Kyle Prepolec is not a UFC-caliber fighter and lacks power. He expects Dober to find a finish, making him a good fantasy play at $9,400.
Big Brady is concerned about Drew Dober's age, fight mileage, and recent chin issues, but believes the skill gap is massive in Dober's favor. He notes Prepolec has never been knocked out and is likely more durable at this stage. He picks Dober by decision, staying away from the -550 price.
Cody picks Prepolec, citing value. He notes Dober's chin is declining and he has been knocked out recently. Prepolec has never been knocked out and has a full camp. Cody believes Prepolec can catch Dober and win by knockout, but admits it's a value play.
Connor picks Drew Dober but is hesitant, acknowledging that Dober seems to have lost his confidence and timing after the Manuel Torres loss. He notes that Prepolec is a tough slugger who has never been knocked out, and that Dober's usual brawling approach may not work anymore. However, Connor still expects Dober to win because Prepolec is a step down in competition.
James picks Dober to win but notes value on Prepolec as an underdog. He questions Dober's recent chin issues after knockouts by Jean Silva and Matt Frevola, while Prepolec has never been knocked out. James expects a striking battle where Prepolec could land a head kick, but ultimately favors Dober's speed and experience.
The host is not a big fan of Dober at the super chalky line given his recent form and Prepolec being a striker himself. However, he still thinks Dober is the better all-around fighter and should mix striking and grappling to win on the scorecards, provided his durability holds up.
Paul leans Prepolec, agreeing with Cody on value. He notes Dober's durability is a question and Prepolec has power. Paul says he'll have a small bet on Prepolec but has low conviction.
The MMA Guru picks Drew Dober over Kyle Prepolec. He acknowledges Dober's recent KO loss to Manuel Torres but attributes that to Torres being a genetic freak with nasty power. He believes Dober still has it and will beat Prepolec easily, noting Prepolec shouldn't be in the UFC. He predicts a TKO in the second round.
Zane picks Kyle Prepolec as a wild flyer, citing Dober's recent struggles and loss of confidence. He notes that Prepolec is a tough slugger who has never been knocked out, and that Dober's path to victory is to slug it out, which may no longer work. Zane is not confident but sees value in the underdog.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manuel Torres | 1 | 23 of 25 | 92% | 23 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Drew Dober | 0 | 3 of 9 | 33% | 3 of 9 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manuel Torres | 1 | 23 of 25 | 92% | 23 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Drew Dober | 0 | 3 of 9 | 33% | 3 of 9 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manuel Torres | 23 of 25 | 92% | 21 of 23 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 16 |
| Drew Dober | 3 of 9 | 33% | 2 of 5 | 0 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manuel Torres | 23 of 25 | 92% | 21 of 23 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 16 |
| Drew Dober | 3 of 9 | 33% | 2 of 5 | 0 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
James picks Drew Dober to win, arguing that Torres has never won outside round one except for a split decision where he gassed, and that elevation will worsen his cardio. He highlights Dober's elite chin, cardio, and forward pressure, noting Dober's last fight against Jean Silva showed his durability. James believes Dober will survive Torres' early onslaught and then dominate in rounds two and three, likely finishing Torres. He also mentions a potential submission angle for Torres but favors Dober's path to victory.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean Silva | 0 | 59 of 147 | 40% | 59 of 148 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:30 |
| Drew Dober | 0 | 53 of 109 | 48% | 53 of 109 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jean Silva | 0 | 20 of 58 | 34% | 20 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Drew Dober | 0 | 16 of 42 | 38% | 16 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jean Silva | 0 | 30 of 70 | 42% | 30 of 71 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
| Drew Dober | 0 | 31 of 55 | 56% | 31 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Jean Silva | 0 | 9 of 19 | 47% | 9 of 19 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
| Drew Dober | 0 | 6 of 12 | 50% | 6 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean Silva | 59 of 147 | 40% | 29 of 109 | 21 of 28 | 9 of 10 | 55 of 138 | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| Drew Dober | 53 of 109 | 48% | 37 of 89 | 15 of 19 | 1 of 1 | 48 of 101 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jean Silva | 20 of 58 | 34% | 7 of 41 | 8 of 12 | 5 of 5 | 20 of 58 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Drew Dober | 16 of 42 | 38% | 10 of 34 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 41 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jean Silva | 30 of 70 | 42% | 17 of 53 | 10 of 13 | 3 of 4 | 26 of 61 | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| Drew Dober | 31 of 55 | 56% | 23 of 45 | 7 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 29 of 51 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 1 | |
| 3 | Jean Silva | 9 of 19 | 47% | 5 of 15 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Drew Dober | 6 of 12 | 50% | 4 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 9 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Jean Silva, having bet on him at +105. He believes Silva is the better striker and would win with a full camp, but cautions about the quick turnaround (fighting two weeks after UFC 303) and moving up in weight. He notes that Silva opened as an underdog but has become the favorite, and advises that betting at plus money was good but at current minus odds may not be worth it. He acknowledges Drew Dober's durability and chin.
Cody picks Jean Silva, impressed by his power and durability shown against Charles Jourdain. He believes Dober's chin is declining and that Silva's pressure and power will be too much. He notes Silva's camp at Fighting Nerds and his ability to generate power from any position.
Daniel Vreeland picks Drew Dober over Jean Silva. He cites Dober's experience, power, and size advantage as a true lightweight, while Silva is moving up from featherweight. He notes Dober's status as a lightweight KO king and that he lives in Colorado, giving him an altitude advantage. He acknowledges Silva's impressive performances but thinks the quick turnaround and elevation may affect him. He leans with the veteran Dober.
Drew Dober is the more technical striker. If he can stay competitive early, Jean Silva will slow down due to altitude and whiffing. Dober's solid striking defense will allow him to turn up the pace and potentially put Silva away in the second or third round.
Paul picks Jean Silva, citing his power and the fact that Dober's chin may be fading. He notes Silva's performance against Jourdain and believes Silva's pressure will overwhelm Dober. He expects an entertaining fight with a finish.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Renato Moicano | 0 | 23 of 42 | 54% | 142 of 177 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 10:33 |
| Drew Dober | 0 | 23 of 59 | 38% | 36 of 73 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Renato Moicano | 0 | 6 of 12 | 50% | 43 of 54 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:48 |
| Drew Dober | 0 | 6 of 20 | 30% | 7 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 | |
| 2 | Renato Moicano | 0 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 34 of 42 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 3:19 |
| Drew Dober | 0 | 6 of 13 | 46% | 17 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:01 | |
| 3 | Renato Moicano | 0 | 15 of 25 | 60% | 65 of 81 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 3:26 |
| Drew Dober | 0 | 11 of 26 | 42% | 12 of 27 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Renato Moicano | 23 of 42 | 54% | 20 of 39 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 27 | 1 of 2 | 12 of 13 |
| Drew Dober | 23 of 59 | 38% | 17 of 50 | 4 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 19 of 52 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 6 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Renato Moicano | 6 of 12 | 50% | 5 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Drew Dober | 6 of 20 | 30% | 5 of 17 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Renato Moicano | 2 of 5 | 40% | 1 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
| Drew Dober | 6 of 13 | 46% | 5 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 6 | |
| 3 | Renato Moicano | 15 of 25 | 60% | 14 of 24 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 10 |
| Drew Dober | 11 of 26 | 42% | 7 of 21 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 11 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Drew Dober, trusting his chin and brawling ability. He notes that Moicano is chinny and hasn't fought in a year. He believes Dober can bait Moicano into a firefight and knock him out. He has a half-unit bet on Dober at +125.
Big Brady picks Renato Moicano to win by first-round submission. He notes that Moicano has a huge advantage on the ground, and Dober has been submitted multiple times. However, Moicano sometimes falls in love with striking, which would be dangerous against Dober's power. Brady thinks Moicano will take Dober down and submit him, but acknowledges it's a 50-50 fight.
Cody picks Moicano, citing Dober's declining durability and Moicano's superior grappling and angles. He notes Dober's chin is fading after the Fialho knockout, and Moicano can set up takedowns with his jab. He sees Moicano by submission as a strong prop.
Moicano has a tremendous BJJ black belt and should be able to drag Dober to the ground and sink in a rear naked choke. However, the host is hesitant due to Moicano's long layoff and knee surgery at 34 years old. Dober has power and good cardio, but is at a skill disadvantage on the ground. The host expects the fight not to go to decision, with Moicano winning by submission.
Paul agrees with Cody, picking Moicano. He highlights Dober's reckless pressure and suspect takedown defense, while Moicano's jab and movement should set up takedowns. He notes Moicano's losses are to elite fighters, and Dober has never been at that level.
The MMA Guru picks Drew Dober over Renato Moicano, predicting a TKO. He cites Moicano's long layoff since November 2022 due to a leg injury, and doubts he will look his best. He believes Dober has more power on the feet and has impressive wins over Terrance McKinney, Rafael Alves, and Bobby Green. He thinks Moicano will struggle to take Dober down and that Dober will catch him with his hands down, Korean Zombie style.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Dober | 1 | 30 of 53 | 56% | 30 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:31 |
| Ricky Glenn | 0 | 5 of 22 | 22% | 5 of 22 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Drew Dober | 1 | 30 of 53 | 56% | 30 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:31 |
| Ricky Glenn | 0 | 5 of 22 | 22% | 5 of 22 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Dober | 30 of 53 | 56% | 19 of 40 | 7 of 9 | 4 of 4 | 20 of 38 | 2 of 3 | 8 of 12 |
| Ricky Glenn | 5 of 22 | 22% | 2 of 15 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Drew Dober | 30 of 53 | 56% | 19 of 40 | 7 of 9 | 4 of 4 | 20 of 38 | 2 of 3 | 8 of 12 |
| Ricky Glenn | 5 of 22 | 22% | 2 of 15 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Drew Dober confidently, citing his technical kickboxing, power, and willingness to brawl. He notes that Ricky Glenn struggles when opponents bring a brawl. However, he expresses concern about Dober's chin after his knockout loss to Matt Frevola, wondering if it's the beginning of the end. He has Dober in a parlay with Kanako Murata, calling it risky.
Big Brady is very confident in Drew Dober, calling the matchup questionable and noting Ricky Glenn's poor performance in his last fight. He believes Glenn looks washed and has had long layoffs due to injuries. He expects Dober's power to be too much, predicting a first-round knockout despite Glenn only being knocked out once in his career.
Cody picks Dober but is hesitant, noting that Dober's chin may be compromised after his knockout loss to Matt Frevola. He acknowledges Glenn's sneaky power and low activity, but believes Dober's experience and power give him the edge. He does not like the line and sees better value elsewhere.
Daniel Levi picks Drew Dober, noting that Dober has always been a step ahead of Ricky Glenn in competition. He highlights Dober's power and his record for most KOs in the lightweight division, but also acknowledges Glenn's durability (only one KO loss in over 30 fights). He thinks Dober should get back on track but doesn't guarantee a KO.
Lucrative James predicts Dober wins by knockout in round two or three. He thinks the line is wide but Dober should get the finish. He notes Dober has good takedown defense but struggles to get back up if taken down. He believes Glenn is slowing down and Dober will eventually crack his chin.
Dober has power and speed advantages, and Glenn has durability concerns after a long layoff and surgeries. However, Dober is unreliable as a heavy favorite and Glenn can also knock him out. The fight likely ends inside the distance, with Dober getting a KO, but the odds are too high to trust. I predict Dober by KO but won't bet the moneyline.
Paul picks Ricky Glenn as a value play, citing Dober's recent knockout loss and Glenn's volatility. He notes that Glenn has sneaky power and could catch Dober. However, he is not highly confident, calling it a high-volatility fight. He prefers the under 2.5 rounds prop as a safer bet.
The MMA Guru picks Drew Dober over Ricky Glenn, predicting a TKO. He jokes about Dober's racially motivated power but seriously notes Glenn looked like an 'old age pensioner' in his last fight against Christos Giagos, slow and predictable. He believes Dober has decent takedown defense and will land body shots, finishing Glenn in the late first round. He also mentions Glenn stands upright, making him vulnerable.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Frevola | 0 | 20 of 59 | 33% | 20 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Drew Dober | 1 | 35 of 75 | 46% | 39 of 79 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matt Frevola | 0 | 20 of 59 | 33% | 20 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Drew Dober | 1 | 35 of 75 | 46% | 39 of 79 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Frevola | 20 of 59 | 33% | 12 of 50 | 8 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 19 of 58 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Drew Dober | 35 of 75 | 46% | 26 of 61 | 6 of 11 | 3 of 3 | 22 of 58 | 1 of 2 | 12 of 15 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matt Frevola | 20 of 59 | 33% | 12 of 50 | 8 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 19 of 58 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Drew Dober | 35 of 75 | 46% | 26 of 61 | 6 of 11 | 3 of 3 | 22 of 58 | 1 of 2 | 12 of 15 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Dober (-205), Frevola (+175)
Round 1
What many are coining the must-watch battle of the evening takes place in the ESPN prelim headliner, when hard-chinned brawler Dober (26-11, 1 NC; 12-7, 1 NC UFC) throws down with aggressive action fighter Frevola (10-3-1, 4-3-1 UFC). Ahead of what hopes to be a lightweight thriller, the two men bump fists. Referee Herb Dean stands at the ready. Frevola engages with a jab and a body kick, and the latter lands flush. Dober counters with a left hand, and he gets tagged with a right hand over the top. Frevola comes at his foe with a superman punch and a head kick, and he scores a right hand that gives Dober pause. They crash together and bump heads together, and Dober gets a left hand to find the chin. Frevola flails back with powerful punches, and he changes levels and bails on it to knee the body. Dober swats away a kick to his ribs, and he gives Frevola a shove. Frevola slides a punch but cannot dodge the subsequent body shot. A few punches from Frevola bust open Dober’s nose, and he fights his way of the fence. Dober keeps walking him down, slipping a pair of hooks and walking him down. Dober thumps a left to the body, and Frevola loads up with everything he has to fire back. Dober sticks a straight right down the pipe that reddens Frevola’s nose, and he is backing Frevola off but not slowing his offense. Frevola sings a few right hands, and they crash together swinging fists. Both split apart, no worse for wear, and Frevola boots him upside the head with his shin. Dober practically ignores it to retaliate with a one-two, and a left to the body. Frevola connects with another Superman punch, and Dober wobbles but continues marching forward. Dober looses head kicks, and one slides under the arm to the upper ribs.
Frevola sits down on a right hand that pounds square into Dober's perfect jawline, and Dober collapses to his seat. Sensing he might be able to pull off the finish and upset, Frevola leaps on top and hammers Dober with a lengthy barrage of unanswered blows. Frevola beats down on Dober with a long stream of punches, and Dober’s eyes roll back briefly before he gets knocked back into his senses.
As Frevola keeps swinging to finish the job, Dean steps in to wave the fight off, and Dober immediately protests. Dober tries to get back to his feet to show he can still fight and that Dean made a mistake, but he is wobbling on his feet and barely upright. Blood streams from Dober’s face, and the fight is officially over. Frevola goes over to make sure there is no bad blood, and tensions cool down.
The Official Result
Matt Frevola def. Drew Dober R1 4:08 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo picks Matt Frevola, citing his recent knockout power and wrestling ability. He thinks Drew Dober's chin may finally be wearing out from accumulated damage, and that Frevola is smart enough to mix in takedowns rather than brawl. Angelo notes Frevola's confidence from back-to-back KO wins and believes he can land, shoot, and grind to victory. He has a quarter unit on Frevola at +185, calling it great odds for a guy with power and wrestling.
Big Brady picks Dober, expecting a stand-up war. He notes Frevola has power but tends to brawl, and Dober has one of the best chins in the UFC. He believes if Frevola stands and trades, Dober will knock him out. He predicts a first-round knockout, as Frevola has been knocked out before and Dober's durability is elite.
Cody emphasizes Dober's incredible chin and power, noting that Frevola has been knocked out by lesser punchers. He points out that Dober survived a knockdown from Terence McKinney and came back to win, while McKinney knocked out Frevola in 7 seconds. He expects Dober to land big shots and knock Frevola out, possibly under 1.5 rounds.
Connor agrees with Zane, emphasizing that Dober's pressure and ability to come back from being hurt make him the pick. He notes Frevola has been knocked out too many times and that Dober's losses come only to elite wrestlers. Connor sees Frevola's path as unlikely.
The host picks Drew Dober, believing his speed and explosiveness will allow him to land cleanly on Matt Frevola. He notes Dober's defensive grappling should nullify Frevola's takedowns. He expects a knockout and recommends the fight doesn't go to decision as the best bet.
Paul agrees, calling Dober's chin one of the best in the game. He notes Frevola's path is to grapple early, but at range Dober has a clear advantage. He predicts Dober knocks him out, as Frevola has struggled against power punchers.
The Guru picks Dober, calling Frevola a scrappier, worse version of Dober. He notes Dober's chin and ability to survive storms, while Frevola has been finished by lesser fighters. He expects a stand-up fight with Dober finishing Frevola in the first round via being more technical and tough in the pocket.
Zane picks Drew Dober because Dober is more reliable in a brawl, with excellent pocket composure and body work. He notes Frevola may have a wrestling out but is likely to get drawn into a war. Dober's defensive wrestling is solid but not ironclad, but Frevola's tendency to brawl and get knocked out makes Dober the clear pick.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Dober | 1 | 34 of 121 | 28% | 34 of 121 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
| King Green | 0 | 73 of 142 | 51% | 75 of 145 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Drew Dober | 0 | 17 of 71 | 23% | 17 of 71 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| King Green | 0 | 39 of 87 | 44% | 40 of 89 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:11 | |
| 2 | Drew Dober | 1 | 17 of 50 | 34% | 17 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
| King Green | 0 | 34 of 55 | 61% | 35 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Dober | 34 of 121 | 28% | 16 of 86 | 9 of 21 | 9 of 14 | 33 of 119 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| King Green | 73 of 142 | 51% | 50 of 113 | 17 of 22 | 6 of 7 | 72 of 141 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Drew Dober | 17 of 71 | 23% | 5 of 50 | 7 of 13 | 5 of 8 | 17 of 70 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| King Green | 39 of 87 | 44% | 27 of 71 | 7 of 10 | 5 of 6 | 38 of 86 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Drew Dober | 17 of 50 | 34% | 11 of 36 | 2 of 8 | 4 of 6 | 16 of 49 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| King Green | 34 of 55 | 61% | 23 of 42 | 10 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 34 of 55 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Drew Dober hesitantly, acknowledging that this is a very tough fight to call. He notes Dober has a great chin and power, while Bobby Green is more technically sound with higher volume and better defense. He worries that Dober might get touched up like in the Nazrat fight. He plans to stay away from betting on this fight due to low confidence.
Big Brady picks Bobby Green as an underdog, citing his recent impressive performances and high volume. He worries about Green's fight IQ and the judges, but thinks Green will outland Dober. He notes Dober will land the harder shots but Green's volume should win rounds. He also mentions Green could wrestle but likely won't. He predicts a close decision win for Green.
Cody picks Dober, believing his power and durability will sway judges. He notes Dober sits down on his punches and has good leg kicks. He thinks Green's flat-footed boxing style and head-shaking may not impress judges. He expects a close decision win for Dober and considers Dober by decision.
Green is a solid spot here. Dober has recency bias from two straight KOs, but Green is much more durable than those opponents (Rafael Alves, Terrence McKinney). Green will outstrike Dober, throw more combinations, and take home a decision. The line stayed around +130 to +135.
Paul leans Green, thinking he is a cleaner, more dynamic boxer who can win on volume. He notes Green has insane durability and will outland Dober. However, he is hesitant because Dober lands bigger shots and judges may favor damage. He says if the lines were flipped he wouldn't touch it, but at plus money he considers it.
The MMA Guru picks King Green over Drew Dober, despite many picking Dober. He compares Dober to Rafael Fiziev, whom Green nearly beat, and believes Green's style of straight punches and range control will trouble Dober. He notes Green's reach and height advantages and expects him to pepper Dober, swelling his eye and nose, and win a 29-28 decision. He also thinks Dober may not react well to Green's taunting.
Terrance McKinney - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance McKinney | 0 | 13 of 27 | 48% | 15 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
| Kyle Nelson | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Terrance McKinney | 0 | 13 of 27 | 48% | 15 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
| Kyle Nelson | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance McKinney | 13 of 27 | 48% | 12 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 22 |
| Kyle Nelson | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Terrance McKinney | 13 of 27 | 48% | 12 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 22 |
| Kyle Nelson | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Terrance McKinney despite acknowledging his cardio and chin issues. He believes McKinney is the better striker, wrestler, and more powerful, and hopes he puts on a show at home. He admits he went against his own rule of not betting on McKinney and placed a half-unit bet at -141.
Big Brady picks Terrance McKinney to win by first-round knockout. He expects a car crash of a fight, noting both fighters lack durability and have been finished often. He believes McKinney's early pressure and power will be too much for Kyle Nelson, who has been finished in four losses. He thinks McKinney will knock him out in the first few minutes.
Cody picks Nelson, believing McKinney's early explosiveness will fade and Nelson's durability and cardio will take over. He also mentions inside information from Nelson's training partner.
Connor picks Nelson, noting that McKinney is only dangerous in the first round and concedes when he can't get an immediate finish. He points out that McKinney has only won one fight outside the first three minutes in his entire career. Nelson is susceptible early but if he survives, McKinney gives up. Connor says you can't pick a competent fighter to lose to McKinney.
Daniel acknowledges McKinney's first-round finishing ability but is wary of his tendency to fade if he doesn't get the early KO. He picks McKinney but suggests live betting Nelson if the fight goes past two minutes.
The host sees this as a coin flip: McKinney is explosive and dangerous early but has terrible cardio and has never been to a decision; Nelson is slow and hittable but has power and can survive the first round. The implied probabilities (65-40) offer no margin on either side, so the host passes entirely.
The host expects McKinney's explosive power and early aggression to overwhelm Nelson, leading to a first-round knockout. He notes McKinney's tendency to finish early and that all his UFC fights have ended under 1.5 rounds. He is less confident in betting McKinney straight due to his style's volatility but likes the under 1.5 rounds prop.
Paul agrees, noting McKinney's history of gassing and Nelson's ability to survive early storms. He expects Nelson to win after the first round.
The MMA Guru picks Kyle Nelson using reverse psychology, as he often picks McKinney to win by first-round TKO but McKinney fumbles. He believes McKinney will wobble Nelson early but then fade, allowing Nelson to take over in the second and third rounds with elbows and pressure. He notes McKinney's inconsistency.
Zane agrees, stating that McKinney's pattern is clear: he comes in keyed up and if he doesn't finish early, he gives up. He compares McKinney to the ID of fighters like McGregor and Pyfer. Nelson is a competent fighter who can survive the early storm. Zane notes that Nelson could lose if he gets caught early, but otherwise McKinney has no answer.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance McKinney | 0 | 31 of 57 | 54% | 31 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Chris Duncan | 1 | 38 of 55 | 69% | 53 of 75 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 1:10 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Terrance McKinney | 0 | 31 of 57 | 54% | 31 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Chris Duncan | 1 | 38 of 55 | 69% | 53 of 75 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 1:10 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance McKinney | 31 of 57 | 54% | 26 of 50 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 24 of 45 | 6 of 11 | 1 of 1 |
| Chris Duncan | 38 of 55 | 69% | 36 of 51 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 10 of 20 | 6 of 8 | 22 of 27 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Terrance McKinney | 31 of 57 | 54% | 26 of 50 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 24 of 45 | 6 of 11 | 1 of 1 |
| Chris Duncan | 38 of 55 | 69% | 36 of 51 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 10 of 20 | 6 of 8 | 22 of 27 |
Angelo picks Terrance McKinney despite acknowledging his poor durability and cardio. He believes McKinney is incredibly dangerous early and can get the fight to the ground to find a finish. He notes that Chris Duncan is extremely durable and often comes back from being hurt, but Angelo thinks McKinney's early explosiveness will be enough. He advises against betting due to the high risk.
Big Brady picks Chris Duncan, noting McKinney's tendency to fade after early bursts and his seven career finishes. He highlights Duncan's improved ground game and chin, and expects Duncan to weather the early storm and knock out McKinney late in the first round.
Cody leans toward McKinney, citing his explosive start and finishing ability. He notes that McKinney's fights are usually over in the first round and that Duncan has shown a questionable chin. He mentions that if McKinney doesn't finish early, Duncan's cardio advantage could come into play, but he trusts McKinney's early burst.
Connor picks Chris Duncan, noting that Duncan has improved significantly at ATT, developing a calm, consistent striking game with good shot selection and power. He contrasts McKinney's all-gas-no-brakes style that fades after two minutes, and believes Duncan has the answers to McKinney's early blitz.
Daniel picks Duncan, reasoning that if he survives McKinney's first-round onslaught, he will take over. He notes McKinney has never been past the first round and fades, while Duncan has shown durability and finishing ability. He sees Duncan winning by knockout or submission in later rounds.
Lucrative James acknowledges his bias as a friend of Chris Duncan but provides detailed reasoning. He believes McKinney's only chance is an early finish, while Duncan's physicality, cardio, and improving grappling defense will carry him through. He notes Duncan's training with Grant Dawson and focus on back-take defense. He predicts Duncan wins inside the distance, likely by KO.
The host acknowledges the recent love for McKinney but expects Duncan to take advantage of McKinney's overaggressive style and find a finish within one and a half rounds.
Paul picks Duncan, emphasizing his multiple paths to victory. He notes that McKinney's win condition is a first-round finish, while Duncan has power, a guillotine choke, and cardio. He mentions that Duncan trains at American Top Team and has prepared for McKinney's wrestling. He believes if McKinney doesn't finish early, Duncan will take over.
The Guru picks Terrance McKinney despite acknowledging Duncan may be the better fighter. He believes McKinney's speed and first-round explosiveness will catch Duncan, who is hittable early. The Guru predicts a first-round TKO, possibly in the first minute.
Zane picks Chris Duncan, emphasizing that McKinney has never won a UFC fight outside the first two minutes and loses when his initial blitz fails. He notes Duncan's improved striking and power, and believes Duncan can weather the early storm and take over. Zane thinks the odds should be wider in Duncan's favor.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance McKinney | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 0:47 |
| Viacheslav Borshchev | 0 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Terrance McKinney | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 0:47 |
| Viacheslav Borshchev | 0 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance McKinney | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
| Viacheslav Borshchev | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Terrance McKinney | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
| Viacheslav Borshchev | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Terrance McKinney because he believes McKinney's early explosiveness will overwhelm Viacheslav Borshchev, who is older and may not be as durable as before. He notes that McKinney is reliable in that he either finishes early or loses, and he thinks McKinney will come out like a bat out of hell and get the job done. However, he admits he is picking against Borshchev more than for McKinney, and he will monitor the odds for a good betting spot.
Big Brady acknowledges McKinney is the rightful favorite due to his wrestling and power, but he is hesitant because both fighters have questionable durability. He notes Borshchev has terrible takedown defense and was dropped by Chase Hooper, but McKinney's cardio is atrocious and his durability is also suspect. Brady thinks McKinney will land first and win by first-round knockout, but if it leaves the first round, McKinney is in trouble.
The host notes McKinney's tendency for early finishes, but picks Borshchev to fend off the early grappling and get a TKO finish by the end of the first or early second round.
The host picks Terrance McKinney, citing his underrated grappling as the X-factor. He notes that Borshchev has shown weaknesses in grappling, as seen in his losses to Chase Hooper and others. However, he acknowledges McKinney's tendency to get knocked out spectacularly and sees the fight as a 50/50 on the feet. He believes McKinney will use his wrestling to secure a win.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance McKinney | 0 | 54 of 69 | 78% | 69 of 90 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 1 | 1:00 |
| Damir Hadžović | 0 | 4 of 13 | 30% | 4 of 13 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Terrance McKinney | 0 | 54 of 69 | 78% | 69 of 90 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 1 | 1:00 |
| Damir Hadžović | 0 | 4 of 13 | 30% | 4 of 13 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance McKinney | 54 of 69 | 78% | 53 of 67 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 46 of 51 |
| Damir Hadžović | 4 of 13 | 30% | 3 of 9 | 0 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Terrance McKinney | 54 of 69 | 78% | 53 of 67 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 46 of 51 |
| Damir Hadžović | 4 of 13 | 30% | 3 of 9 | 0 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Terrance McKinney despite his unreliability, citing his superior talent, wrestling, and striking. He notes that Damir Hadžović is older (38) and not as dangerous. He worries about McKinney's cardio and chin but believes he should win early. He suggests looking at round props rather than betting the moneyline at -335.
Big Brady sees this as an easy matchup for Terrance McKinney, who has great wrestling and BJJ. Damir Hadžović has the worst takedown defense in the UFC and has been submitted before. Brady thinks McKinney will take him down and submit him in the first round, though he notes McKinney has terrible cardio if the fight extends. He predicts a first-round submission.
McKinney has a massive grappling advantage and will look to get the fight to the ground immediately. He is expected to take the back and secure a first-round submission, as he has done in all nine of his UFC fights. The fight is predicted to go under 1.5 rounds.
The MMA Guru picks Terrance McKinney to win by TKO in the first round. He believes McKinney has finishing potential while Hadžović does not, and that Hadžović is past his prime and likely to be decisioned. He notes McKinney's losses are brutal but expects him to get the job done here.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esteban Ribovics | 0 | 5 of 18 | 27% | 5 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Terrance McKinney | 1 | 5 of 12 | 41% | 5 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Esteban Ribovics | 0 | 5 of 18 | 27% | 5 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Terrance McKinney | 1 | 5 of 12 | 41% | 5 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esteban Ribovics | 5 of 18 | 27% | 3 of 16 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 16 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Terrance McKinney | 5 of 12 | 41% | 3 of 8 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 10 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Esteban Ribovics | 5 of 18 | 27% | 3 of 16 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 16 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Terrance McKinney | 5 of 12 | 41% | 3 of 8 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 10 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Esteban Ribovics as the more durable and dependable fighter, despite Terrance McKinney's raw talent and explosiveness. He notes Ribovics has been taken down 14 times in his last five fights, but McKinney has been finished in every loss. He acknowledges the fight is close to 50/50 and that McKinney could win if he lands early.
Big Brady picks Esteban Ribovics to survive McKinney's early storm and finish him in the late first or second round by knockout. He notes McKinney has never won a UFC fight past the first round and tends to gas if he doesn't finish early. Ribovics has durability, cardio, heart, and finishing ability. He expects McKinney to try wrestling, but if he doesn't finish, he will fade and get finished himself.
Cody picks Ribovics, noting that McKinney is a 'glass cannon' who gasses after the first round. He expects McKinney to come out fast and possibly take Ribovics down early, but Ribovics has shown he can survive and come back. Cody likes the under 1.5 rounds prop as parlay fodder, as McKinney fights are usually short. He suggests live betting Ribovics if McKinney wins the first round.
Daniel Vreeland picks Esteban Ribovics, noting that McKinney is dangerous in the first round but fades if he doesn't get the finish. He believes Ribovics can survive the early onslaught and take over late, getting a finish. He mentions Ribovics' ability to get back to his feet and his late-round power.
The host expects McKinney's early explosiveness to overwhelm Ribovics, likely via knockout in round 1. He notes McKinney's tendency to gas but believes Ribovics' takedown defense issues will be exploited. He strongly recommends the under 1.5 rounds as a must-play, and also likes McKinney round 1 prop. The pick is confident for the early finish, though he acknowledges the risk if McKinney fails.
Paul picks Ribovics, agreeing that McKinney is a first-round specialist who fades. He notes that Ribovics has a strong chin and cardio, and can take McKinney's best shots. Paul expects Ribovics to survive the early storm and take over in the second round. He also likes the under 1.5 rounds prop due to McKinney's tendency to finish or get finished quickly.
The MMA Guru picks Terrance McKinney as an underdog over Esteban Ribovics. He notes that McKinney has a wrestling background he doesn't always use but can rely on, and that Ribovics is hook-heavy with a reach disadvantage. He references Ribovics' fight with Kamuela Kirk where Kirk took him down and controlled him, suggesting McKinney can do the same. He also trusts McKinney's cardio and power on the feet.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance McKinney | 1 | 14 of 21 | 66% | 14 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Brendon Marotte | 0 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Terrance McKinney | 1 | 14 of 21 | 66% | 14 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Brendon Marotte | 0 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance McKinney | 14 of 21 | 66% | 14 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 19 |
| Brendon Marotte | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Terrance McKinney | 14 of 21 | 66% | 14 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 19 |
| Brendon Marotte | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Terrance McKinney to win by first-round submission. He notes McKinney is dangerous early with power and wrestling, while Marotte is a big step up in competition and may not survive the first round. He warns that if Marotte survives, he could win, but expects McKinney to get it done quickly.
Cody picks McKinney, emphasizing that Marotte is a huge underdog with no recent fights and a shaky defense. He notes that McKinney's pressure and power are likely to overwhelm Marotte early. Cody suggests that if Marotte survives the first round, he could be live, but he doubts that will happen.
The host picks Terrance McKinney by round one, noting his explosive power and fast starts. He highlights that 19 of 20 McKinney fights finished under 1.5 rounds. However, he warns against the moneyline due to cardio issues and suggests taking McKinney round one or under 1.5 rounds.
Paul picks McKinney, noting his explosive first-round power and the fact that Marotte has no recent tape and is stepping in on short notice. He acknowledges McKinney's cardio issues but believes Marotte is not durable enough to survive the first round. Paul suggests betting McKinney round 1 or Marotte round 2 as value plays.
The MMA Guru picks Terrance McKinney to win by TKO over Brendan Marotte. He dismisses Marotte as an awful regional fighter who beat an 11-20 opponent and went to a split decision with an 8-4 fighter. He notes Marotte trains at New England Cartel but lacks quality wins. He believes McKinney has a speed advantage and won't be outgrappled, and that Marotte's short notice and lack of durability will lead to a finish.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance McKinney | 0 | 30 of 47 | 63% | 30 of 47 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Mike Breeden | 0 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 1 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Terrance McKinney | 0 | 30 of 47 | 63% | 30 of 47 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Mike Breeden | 0 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 1 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance McKinney | 30 of 47 | 63% | 23 of 36 | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 30 | 11 of 14 | 3 of 3 |
| Mike Breeden | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Terrance McKinney | 30 of 47 | 63% | 23 of 36 | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 30 | 11 of 14 | 3 of 3 |
| Mike Breeden | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks McKinney but with low confidence due to cardio concerns and the short-notice turnaround. He notes McKinney has solid wrestling and BJJ but gasses and has a questionable chin. He is staying away from the -400 odds but suggests prop bets like McKinney winning the first round or getting more takedowns.
Big Brady picks Terrance McKinney to win by knockout early in the first round, likely within 60 seconds. He notes McKinney's dangerous striking and wrestling but acknowledges his poor cardio and short-notice fight. He believes McKinney will finish Breeden quickly, as Breeden has awful takedown defense and has been finished before. However, he cautions that if McKinney doesn't finish in the first round, he is likely to lose.
Cody picks Breeden by second-round finish as a prop bet, not on the moneyline. He notes McKinney's notorious cardio issues and short-notice fight (27 days after his last fight). He thinks if Breeden survives the first round, he will take over. He recommends a small sprinkle on Breeden round 2 at long odds, or live betting after the first round.
James is leaning toward Breeden as a value play, noting McKinney is a round-one-or-bust fighter and is priced at -300. He thinks Breeden is tough with good cardio and could survive the early storm. James admits McKinney could get back on track but feels the odds are too high for such a volatile fighter. He might bet Breeden.
McKinney has cardio issues but is extremely powerful and athletic early. Breeden is coming off a long layoff and camp change. McKinney's under 1.5 rounds streak is 18 of 19 fights, so the under is a strong play. McKinney should get the TKO in the first round due to his speed and power.
Paul also likes Breeden as a live underdog or round 2/3 prop. He notes McKinney's cardio fades after the first round and that Breeden has shown good cardio in past fights, especially in the third round against Natan Levy. He thinks Breeden can survive the initial onslaught and take over later. He recommends a small bet on Breeden round 2 or 3.
The MMA Guru picks Terrance McKinney but is hesitant, acknowledging McKinney's cardio issues and tendency to gas after round one. He believes McKinney is the better fighter and should win by first-round KO if he fights aggressively, but warns that if the fight goes past round one, Breeden could take over. He suggests a live bet on Breeden if McKinney gasses.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nazim Sadykhov | 0 | 8 of 15 | 53% | 20 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 1 | 0:55 |
| Terrance McKinney | 0 | 6 of 14 | 42% | 21 of 34 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 4:16 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nazim Sadykhov | 0 | 5 of 8 | 62% | 16 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:20 |
| Terrance McKinney | 0 | 5 of 8 | 62% | 20 of 28 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 4:12 | |
| 2 | Nazim Sadykhov | 0 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:35 |
| Terrance McKinney | 0 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 1 of 6 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nazim Sadykhov | 8 of 15 | 53% | 6 of 11 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 6 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Terrance McKinney | 6 of 14 | 42% | 3 of 10 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 4 of 12 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nazim Sadykhov | 5 of 8 | 62% | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Terrance McKinney | 5 of 8 | 62% | 2 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Nazim Sadykhov | 3 of 7 | 42% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Terrance McKinney | 1 of 6 | 16% | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo gives a slight lean to Terrance McKinney, calling it a 50.5 to 49.5 pick in his favor. He thinks McKinney is the better fighter overall, with solid striking and wrestling credentials, but his chin is questionable. He is swayed by a conversation with McKinney's coach about improved training partners. However, he hesitates because McKinney was recently knocked out and Sadykhov carries power late. He would only bet if the line moves to make McKinney a bigger underdog.
Big Brady picks Terrance McKinney, expecting him to revert to his aggressive style and finish Sadykhov early. He notes Sadykhov is a slow starter who has been hurt early in fights, which plays into McKinney's strengths. However, he warns that if McKinney doesn't finish in the first few minutes, his poor cardio will be a problem. He calls it a great live betting spot if Sadykhov survives the first round.
Cody picks McKinney at plus money, citing his explosiveness, power, and wrestling advantage. He thinks McKinney will go back to his aggressive style after pacing himself poorly against Bomfim. He notes Sadykhov's takedown defense issues and that McKinney has speed and power advantages. He acknowledges McKinney's cardio is a concern but thinks he can finish early.
The host highlights McKinney's 17 of 18 fights finishing under 1.5 rounds and 15 first-round finishes. He thinks Sadykhov is hittable and lacks durability, and McKinney's explosivity and power will be too much. He picks McKinney to win in round one, either by KO or submission.
Paul picks Sadykhov, citing his ability to fight 15 full minutes and survive early pressure. He notes McKinney's cardio fades after 5-6 minutes and that Sadykhov can take damage and come back. He mentions Sadykhov's cut stoppage win over Elder was competitive, not one-sided. He thinks a live bet on Sadykhov after the first round is a good strategy.
The MMA Guru picks Terrance McKinney over Nazim Sadykhov, citing McKinney's KO power and ability to catch opponents, as seen against Matt Frevola. He worries about McKinney's KO loss but notes his youth and six-month layoff. He sees Sadykhov as a forward-momentum scrapper who could run into a big shot, predicting a McKinney KO.
Expert Picks (7)
Angelo picks Terrance McKinney despite being a short-notice replacement. He notes that McKinney is a Juco All-American wrestler with power and length, and that Brad Riddell was able to take Drew Dober down five times to win. He advises McKinney to wrestle rather than stand and bang. Angelo placed a 1-unit moneyline bet on McKinney at +185 and expects the line to move further.
Big Brady picks Drew Dober to win by second-round knockout. He highlights Dober's phenomenal chin, power, and durability, and thinks McKinney's best chance is an early finish. He doubts McKinney can submit Dober on short notice, and if McKinney wrestles, he may gas out (as seen in the Sean Woodson fight). He expects Dober to weather the early storm and knock McKinney out in the second round.
Cody is confident in Dober, citing his chin, power, and cardio advantage. He notes McKinney's early burst but believes Dober will weather it and take over in later rounds. He mentions Dober's takedown defense and ability to get up.
Daniel Levi picks Drew Dober but with hesitation, stating that his gut tells him it's a trap and he is staying away from betting. He thinks McKinney will take Dober down in the first round, but if Dober survives to the second and third, he can take over. Levi notes that Dober has improved his scrambling and escaped Islam Makhachev's armbar, but McKinney's momentum and power are concerns.
McKinney is a first-round finisher with power and submissions, and Dober has given up many takedowns recently. If McKinney doesn't finish early, Dober's cardio and striking could take over. However, the pick is McKinney via first-round submission, as his grappling and jiu-jitsu create sticky situations. The fight is expected to end inside the distance.
Paul is confident in Dober, citing his chin, power, and cardio. He notes McKinney's early threat but believes Dober will survive and finish late. He mentions Dober's takedown defense and ability to get up.
The MMA Guru picks Terrance McKinney as an underdog over Drew Dober, calling it a 50-50 fight. He likes McKinney's activity, scrambles, and well-rounded game, and believes Dober's recent war with Brad Riddell and inactivity are concerns. He thinks McKinney's scrambles will mitigate Dober's strength and that McKinney will grind out a decision, winning top control positions. He notes that Dober is difficult to finish but expects McKinney to win 30-27.
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