Career Averages - Casey Kenney
Career Averages - Alateng Heili
Casey Kenney - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song Yadong | 0 | 116 of 257 | 45% | 121 of 263 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:20 |
| Casey Kenney | 0 | 78 of 190 | 41% | 85 of 199 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 0:26 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Song Yadong | 0 | 31 of 68 | 45% | 31 of 68 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
| Casey Kenney | 0 | 19 of 57 | 33% | 19 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 | |
| 2 | Song Yadong | 0 | 34 of 78 | 43% | 38 of 82 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Casey Kenney | 0 | 28 of 60 | 46% | 32 of 65 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:12 | |
| 3 | Song Yadong | 0 | 51 of 111 | 45% | 52 of 113 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Casey Kenney | 0 | 31 of 73 | 42% | 34 of 77 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song Yadong | 116 of 257 | 45% | 66 of 197 | 34 of 44 | 16 of 16 | 110 of 249 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Casey Kenney | 78 of 190 | 41% | 45 of 140 | 20 of 31 | 13 of 19 | 77 of 188 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Song Yadong | 31 of 68 | 45% | 18 of 54 | 5 of 6 | 8 of 8 | 28 of 65 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Casey Kenney | 19 of 57 | 33% | 8 of 40 | 9 of 13 | 2 of 4 | 18 of 55 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Song Yadong | 34 of 78 | 43% | 19 of 60 | 9 of 12 | 6 of 6 | 34 of 78 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Casey Kenney | 28 of 60 | 46% | 17 of 45 | 4 of 7 | 7 of 8 | 28 of 60 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Song Yadong | 51 of 111 | 45% | 29 of 83 | 20 of 26 | 2 of 2 | 48 of 106 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Casey Kenney | 31 of 73 | 42% | 20 of 55 | 7 of 11 | 4 of 7 | 31 of 73 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
To kick off the main card, bantamweights throw down when Tachi Palace Fights staple Kenney (16-3-1, 5-2 UFC) meets China’s Song (16-5-1, 1 NC; 5-1-1 UFC). Even though Kenney (30) comes in seven years older than his opponent, he actually started his pro career a year after Song (23) did. Referee Dan Miragliotta was not aware of that age discrepancy, but he pays it no mind when the two touch gloves and prepare to fight. Song advances, and Kenney is there to kick him in the body. Song gives him one right back, and Kenney measures him with a few front kicks as “USA” chants already rain down to support Kenney. Song thumps Kenney with a couple solid right hands, and Kenney retreats and gathers himself. Kenney lands with a right hand behind the ear that makes Song stumble, but the Chinese fighter shakes it off and is ready to fire back. Kenney walks forward and slings a left hand, and Song replies in kind. Both men land heavy body kicks, and Kenney marches on to keep attacking. The American ducks back in time to avoid a quick combination, and he gets kicked in the leg. Kenney sticks his tongue out at him and comes out firing, and the two men exchange and connect on one another. A right hand counter from Kenney surprises Song, who measures another stiff leg kick as Kenney plods forward. Both men are marked up to the body after landing shots, and Kenney walks into another kick to the body. Song gets off a right hand that marks up the nose, and Kenney tries to pounce and even goes for a spinning wheel kick, but Song sees it coming and dances out of the way. Kenney goes up high with a kick, and Song dodges and weaves before slamming his shin into Kenney’s leg. A head kick from Song is blocked, and he bullies Song to the ground. The “Kung Fu Monkey” gets to his knees and finds himself in guillotine choke danger, but he stays patient and pops his head out. Song manages to wriggle himself back up to his feet, and Kenney chases him down and keeps throwing hands. Both men trade punches, with Song headhunting while Kenney goes to the body, and the two clap hands as the first round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Kenney
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Kenney
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Kenney
Round 2
Kenney runs out of his corner and touches gloves, and he is quick to throw his foot up at Song’s face. Kenney takes a kick to the body as he advances, and he winds up on a huge right hand that Song narrowly dodges. Kenney chops at his foe’s leg, and Song loads up on a few punches to the body. Kenney counters, and the two separate, trading successive blows one after the other. Song kicks the body, Kenney kicks the leg, and Kenney walks through it to land a looping left hand. A fighter is warned for outstretched fingers, and Kenney goes right back to targeting the head and body of his opponent. Song is forced to fight off his back foot, and as he retreats, Kenney lands a few strikes high and low. Kenney fakes an ankle pick and absorbs a few shots to the body, and the American lands a leg kick followed by a right hand. Song has a trio of punches blocked, and when he comes in, Kenney eats one on the chin and fires right back. A loud, slapping kick from Song echoes through the arena, but Kenney pays it no mind as he careens off his leg. Song floats up a few body kicks as Kenney pushes the pace on him, and like a bantamweight Terminator, Kenney shows no reaction any time he is struck and keeps moving forward. Kenney looks to the take the fight down, and Song blocks it but eats a left hand over the top. When Kenney advances, Song is able to time strikes to his body and legs, but he lands with his hands as Song tries to skirt out of the way. Kenney comes up short on an uppercut as he walks his opponent down, while Song picks at him with kicks. Kenney returns fire after kicks land with low kicks, and he stings Song with a solid right hand. Song bites down on his mouthpiece and lets Kenney have it, scoring a left hand and one to the body. Kenney grits through it and tags his foe right back with a left, forcing Song to shoot in and try for a takedown. The American turns him around, where he clings to him against the fence until the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Kenney
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Kenney
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Song
Round 3
Scorecards will likely be understandably close going into this last round, with the volume of Song against the power and forward movement of Kenney. Din Thomas giggles as he says the Chinese fighter’s name, and the fight resumes practically where the last round ended, with quick exchanges from both fighters. Kenney ignores kicks to score a right hand that shakes Song up, and he scores a body kick to prompt Song to throw back at him. Song lands a few punches and a kick as Kenney advances, and he sits down on a right hand and it splits the guard. Kenney backs off as Song picks up volume, landing jabs and kicks as Kenney tries to give him one back every time. Song scores a right hand on the chin, and Kenney times a sharp body kick as Song ducks down. Kenney clips Song with a head kick where the knee may have bounced off Song’s head, and Song smiles keeps going strong. A one-two and a body kick from Song surprise his opponent, who whiffs as Song chains another punch combination to the body. Kenney lands a few punches at range, with a left hand that sends Song back a step. Song comes right back, and he scores a few strikes before he is forced to defend a takedown in the center of the cage. The Chinese fighter stands him up and holds his hands out to tell him to brawl with him, and Kenney steps in with a left hand as Song jabs at him. Kenney kicks and falls over while trying to recover from it, and Song is there before him scoring to the body. Kenney again shoots for a takedown, and Song sprawls and lands flush. Kenney is forced to shell up as Song strides forward, landing big punches as Kenney tries to wind up on bombs. Song meets every Kenney punch with two of his own, connecting to the body and head as Kenney wings shots. When Song puts together a combination, Kenney shoots in for a takedown and finally hits it – but he last less than 10 seconds to spare. In top position, Kenney drops down a few elbows, and time expires to conclude this close matchup. The scorecards could go either way.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Song (29-28 Kenney)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Song (29-28 Kenney)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Song (29-28 Song)
The Official Result
Yadong Song def. Casey Kenney via Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 30-27)
Angelo picks Kenney, citing his forward pressure, volume, leg kicks, and grappling. He believes Kenney will back Yadong up and mix in takedowns, similar to how Yadong lost to Kyler Phillips. He notes Yadong has better technical striking but struggles when backing up. He also mentions he has a moneyline bet on Kenney.
Big Brady sees this as a very close fight between Kenney's volume and Yadong's power. He thinks Kenney's ability to mix in takedowns will be the difference, as Yadong has 56% takedown defense. He predicts a close decision win for Kenney, but acknowledges the judges could go either way.
Cody picks Kenney, citing his superior volume and cardio. He notes that Song Yadong tends to fade in later rounds, while Kenney is a slow starter who pushes the pace. Cody expects Kenney to lose the first round but win the next two, making him a good live betting option.
Daniel Levi picks Song Yadong, believing he has more ways to win including a potential knockout early or late. He notes that Casey Kenney tends to fade in later rounds and has been taken down multiple times, while Song has power and improving cardio. He acknowledges the fight is close but leans Song because of his finishing ability and the fact that Kenney is undersized for bantamweight.
Kenney has a grappling advantage and better cardio. He is one of the best scramblers in the UFC and should mix striking with takedowns. Yadong is a power puncher but has shown limited progression and will struggle with Kenney's footwork and level changes. Kenney should grind out a decision, possibly winning the later rounds decisively.
Paul agrees with Cody, calling it a volume play. He thinks Kenney's pressure and output will be key, and that losing round one is possible if Kenney doesn't secure an early takedown. He doesn't add much new analysis.
The MMA Guru picks Casey Kenney over Song Yadong. He praises Kenney's cardio, output, and grappling advantage (black belt in judo). He believes Kenney's pace and body work will be too much for Yadong, and predicts a unanimous decision win. He notes Yadong's win over Marlon Vera was controversial.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominick Cruz | 0 | 89 of 202 | 44% | 115 of 229 | 2 of 9 | 22% | 0 | 0 | 2:07 |
| Casey Kenney | 0 | 74 of 193 | 38% | 74 of 193 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:26 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dominick Cruz | 0 | 26 of 56 | 46% | 26 of 56 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Casey Kenney | 0 | 23 of 63 | 36% | 23 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:17 | |
| 2 | Dominick Cruz | 0 | 36 of 82 | 43% | 36 of 82 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Casey Kenney | 0 | 33 of 73 | 45% | 33 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 | |
| 3 | Dominick Cruz | 0 | 27 of 64 | 42% | 53 of 91 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:07 |
| Casey Kenney | 0 | 18 of 57 | 31% | 18 of 57 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominick Cruz | 89 of 202 | 44% | 51 of 151 | 24 of 35 | 14 of 16 | 85 of 197 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 1 |
| Casey Kenney | 74 of 193 | 38% | 41 of 148 | 10 of 19 | 23 of 26 | 72 of 191 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dominick Cruz | 26 of 56 | 46% | 10 of 29 | 7 of 16 | 9 of 11 | 26 of 56 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Casey Kenney | 23 of 63 | 36% | 9 of 46 | 6 of 7 | 8 of 10 | 22 of 62 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Dominick Cruz | 36 of 82 | 43% | 24 of 70 | 8 of 8 | 4 of 4 | 36 of 82 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Casey Kenney | 33 of 73 | 45% | 21 of 55 | 1 of 6 | 11 of 12 | 33 of 73 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Dominick Cruz | 27 of 64 | 42% | 17 of 52 | 9 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 23 of 59 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 1 |
| Casey Kenney | 18 of 57 | 31% | 11 of 47 | 3 of 6 | 4 of 4 | 17 of 56 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Dominick Cruz as an underdog, citing Cruz's wrestling advantage and Kenney's 56% takedown defense. He notes Cruz has not won since 2016 but faced elite competition, while Kenney has been taken down frequently. He predicts a decision win but admits he doesn't feel great about it.
Daniel leans with Casey Kenney, citing Kenney's leg kicks from southpaw to slow Cruz's movement and his wrestling to keep the fight standing. He acknowledges Cruz's in-fight adjustments but believes Kenney's youth and style will edge a decision.
Cruz's footwork and experience could trouble Kenney, who may struggle to land his body kicks. The host notes Cruz's durability and wrestling background, but is not confident enough to bet. He predicts Cruz wins by decision.
The MMA Guru picks Dominick Cruz as an underdog. He argues Cruz had a full camp and hand-picked Kenney, and that people judge him unfairly based on the short-notice Cejudo fight. He believes Cruz's footwork, size, and experience will lead to a 30-27 unanimous decision, and that Cruz can even get takedowns.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casey Kenney | 0 | 136 of 321 | 42% | 138 of 325 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Nathaniel Wood | 0 | 123 of 247 | 49% | 125 of 249 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:30 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Casey Kenney | 0 | 51 of 120 | 42% | 51 of 120 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Nathaniel Wood | 0 | 54 of 96 | 56% | 54 of 96 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Casey Kenney | 0 | 48 of 113 | 42% | 48 of 113 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Nathaniel Wood | 0 | 40 of 90 | 44% | 40 of 90 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 | |
| 3 | Casey Kenney | 0 | 37 of 88 | 42% | 39 of 92 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Nathaniel Wood | 0 | 29 of 61 | 47% | 31 of 63 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:28 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casey Kenney | 136 of 321 | 42% | 70 of 237 | 9 of 22 | 57 of 62 | 134 of 318 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Nathaniel Wood | 123 of 247 | 49% | 74 of 189 | 25 of 32 | 24 of 26 | 118 of 241 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Casey Kenney | 51 of 120 | 42% | 22 of 83 | 6 of 12 | 23 of 25 | 51 of 120 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Nathaniel Wood | 54 of 96 | 56% | 29 of 68 | 13 of 15 | 12 of 13 | 53 of 95 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Casey Kenney | 48 of 113 | 42% | 26 of 86 | 0 of 4 | 22 of 23 | 48 of 113 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Nathaniel Wood | 40 of 90 | 44% | 26 of 71 | 5 of 9 | 9 of 10 | 39 of 89 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Casey Kenney | 37 of 88 | 42% | 22 of 68 | 3 of 6 | 12 of 14 | 35 of 85 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Nathaniel Wood | 29 of 61 | 47% | 19 of 50 | 7 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 26 of 57 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 |
Big Brady leans towards Casey Kenney, acknowledging the fight is close and the line (-200) may be too wide. He highlights Kenney's wrestling advantage and ability to get the fight to the mat, where he has a good submission game. However, he notes Wood's high striking volume and Kenney's recent quick turnaround, making him hesitant.
Daniel Levi picks Casey Kenney, citing his harder hitting, wrestling background, and durability. He acknowledges Nathaniel Wood's point-fighting style and grappling but questions Wood's chin, noting all four of his losses are stoppages. Levi thinks Kenney will land harder shots and secure takedowns at the end of rounds to slightly outpoint Wood.
The host picks Casey Kenney, emphasizing his superior wrestling, cardio, and fight IQ. He believes Kenney will implement a grappling-heavy game plan to neutralize Wood's striking. He notes that Wood has defensive flaws and has been finished before.
The MMA Guru picks Nathaniel Wood to win by first-round TKO as an underdog. He argues that Wood is more technical than Kenney's previous opponent, has KO power, and dominated Andre Ewell. He believes Kenney is overrated as a 2-to-1 favorite and will be overaggressive, leaving himself open.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casey Kenney | 0 | 109 of 263 | 41% | 109 of 263 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alateng Heili | 0 | 46 of 171 | 26% | 46 of 171 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Casey Kenney | 0 | 40 of 94 | 42% | 40 of 94 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alateng Heili | 0 | 19 of 64 | 29% | 19 of 64 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Casey Kenney | 0 | 29 of 79 | 36% | 29 of 79 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alateng Heili | 0 | 14 of 52 | 26% | 14 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Casey Kenney | 0 | 40 of 90 | 44% | 40 of 90 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alateng Heili | 0 | 13 of 55 | 23% | 13 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casey Kenney | 109 of 263 | 41% | 57 of 192 | 41 of 58 | 11 of 13 | 109 of 261 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Alateng Heili | 46 of 171 | 26% | 26 of 140 | 11 of 20 | 9 of 11 | 46 of 171 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Casey Kenney | 40 of 94 | 42% | 21 of 69 | 15 of 19 | 4 of 6 | 40 of 94 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Alateng Heili | 19 of 64 | 29% | 9 of 53 | 5 of 6 | 5 of 5 | 19 of 64 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Casey Kenney | 29 of 79 | 36% | 11 of 58 | 15 of 18 | 3 of 3 | 29 of 79 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Alateng Heili | 14 of 52 | 26% | 9 of 43 | 2 of 4 | 3 of 5 | 14 of 52 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Casey Kenney | 40 of 90 | 44% | 25 of 65 | 11 of 21 | 4 of 4 | 40 of 88 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Alateng Heili | 13 of 55 | 23% | 8 of 44 | 4 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 55 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Casey Kenney to win by decision. He highlights Kenney's superior striking volume and takedown defense, noting that Heili is low volume and gets outlanded. He thinks Kenney is better everywhere and that Heili's only chance is a knockout.
Daniel confidently picks Kenney, praising his fight IQ and level of competition. He expects Kenney to use kicks to avoid Heili's right hand, mix in takedowns, and dominate on top. He notes Heili's toughness and power but believes Kenney is on a different level and will out-tough him.
The host is extremely confident in Casey Kenney, citing his superior grappling, scrambles, and experience against high-level grapplers like Manny Bermudez and Brandon Royval. He believes Alateng Heili's wrestling credentials won't translate to MMA grappling and that Kenney will dominate on the ground. He placed a 5-unit bet at -281, calling it his lock of the night.
The Guru picks Casey Kenney, citing his quality wins over Manny Bermudez, Ray Borg, and Louis Smolka, and noting that Alateng's close fight with Ryan Benoit was unimpressive. He acknowledges Kenney is a heavy favorite at 1-3 odds but still picks him, predicting a submission in the first or second round.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casey Kenney | 0 | 18 of 43 | 41% | 18 of 43 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Louis Smolka | 0 | 32 of 52 | 61% | 32 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:09 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Casey Kenney | 0 | 18 of 43 | 41% | 18 of 43 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Louis Smolka | 0 | 32 of 52 | 61% | 32 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:09 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casey Kenney | 18 of 43 | 41% | 4 of 16 | 14 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 41 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Louis Smolka | 32 of 52 | 61% | 15 of 34 | 5 of 6 | 12 of 12 | 31 of 51 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Casey Kenney | 18 of 43 | 41% | 4 of 16 | 14 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 41 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Louis Smolka | 32 of 52 | 61% | 15 of 34 | 5 of 6 | 12 of 12 | 31 of 51 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Casey Kenney to win by dominant decision. He believes Kenney is better everywhere and can take Smolka down at will. He thinks Kenney's BJJ is too good for Smolka to submit him, and that Kenney will control the fight on the ground or on the feet. He expects a 30-27 or 30-26 decision.
Daniel slightly leans with Kenney but calls it a 'dog or pass' situation at -270. He respects Kenney's well-rounded game and toughness, but notes that Smolka is durable and can scramble. He expects a close fight and advises against betting the favorite at those odds.
The MMA Guru picks Casey Kenney to win by unanimous decision. He admits he wasn't impressed by Kenney's last performance but believes he is a very good fighter. He thinks Kenney will be the smaller man but will outwork Louis Smolka, who has had a long career. He predicts a decision win.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merab Dvalishvili | 0 | 45 of 118 | 38% | 47 of 120 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Casey Kenney | 0 | 63 of 181 | 34% | 114 of 241 | 12 of 24 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 5:42 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Merab Dvalishvili | 0 | 22 of 52 | 42% | 24 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Casey Kenney | 0 | 19 of 67 | 28% | 43 of 92 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:11 | |
| 2 | Merab Dvalishvili | 0 | 16 of 45 | 35% | 16 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Casey Kenney | 0 | 24 of 65 | 36% | 33 of 75 | 4 of 11 | 36% | 0 | 0 | 1:57 | |
| 3 | Merab Dvalishvili | 0 | 7 of 21 | 33% | 7 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Casey Kenney | 0 | 20 of 49 | 40% | 38 of 74 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 0 | 0 | 2:34 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merab Dvalishvili | 45 of 118 | 38% | 22 of 87 | 10 of 17 | 13 of 14 | 42 of 112 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Casey Kenney | 63 of 181 | 34% | 30 of 137 | 14 of 23 | 19 of 21 | 43 of 156 | 7 of 8 | 13 of 17 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Merab Dvalishvili | 22 of 52 | 42% | 8 of 30 | 5 of 12 | 9 of 10 | 19 of 47 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Casey Kenney | 19 of 67 | 28% | 7 of 46 | 4 of 12 | 8 of 9 | 14 of 60 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 3 | |
| 2 | Merab Dvalishvili | 16 of 45 | 35% | 8 of 37 | 4 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 16 of 44 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Casey Kenney | 24 of 65 | 36% | 9 of 48 | 9 of 10 | 6 of 7 | 17 of 57 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 5 | |
| 3 | Merab Dvalishvili | 7 of 21 | 33% | 6 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Casey Kenney | 20 of 49 | 40% | 14 of 43 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 5 | 12 of 39 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 9 |
Daniel Levi picks Merab Dvalishvili to edge out a close decision, but is not very confident. He notes Dvalishvili's relentless pressure and takedowns, but also his tendency to gas and become predictable. He acknowledges Kenney's underrated skills and ability to win fights he's not supposed to, making this a tough call.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casey Kenney | 0 | 37 of 59 | 62% | 59 of 83 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 1 | 6:10 |
| Manny Bermudez | 0 | 43 of 69 | 62% | 56 of 85 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 | 1 | 5:20 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Casey Kenney | 0 | 11 of 14 | 78% | 14 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:32 |
| Manny Bermudez | 0 | 18 of 28 | 64% | 21 of 31 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:49 | |
| 2 | Casey Kenney | 0 | 6 of 12 | 50% | 7 of 13 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:22 |
| Manny Bermudez | 0 | 14 of 22 | 63% | 20 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 1 | 2:55 | |
| 3 | Casey Kenney | 0 | 20 of 33 | 60% | 38 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 3:16 |
| Manny Bermudez | 0 | 11 of 19 | 57% | 15 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:36 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casey Kenney | 37 of 59 | 62% | 29 of 47 | 8 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 22 of 43 | 2 of 2 | 13 of 14 |
| Manny Bermudez | 43 of 69 | 62% | 21 of 42 | 10 of 14 | 12 of 13 | 26 of 49 | 6 of 7 | 11 of 13 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Casey Kenney | 11 of 14 | 78% | 8 of 11 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 |
| Manny Bermudez | 18 of 28 | 64% | 9 of 17 | 3 of 4 | 6 of 7 | 14 of 24 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Casey Kenney | 6 of 12 | 50% | 5 of 8 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Manny Bermudez | 14 of 22 | 63% | 7 of 14 | 5 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 12 | |
| 3 | Casey Kenney | 20 of 33 | 60% | 16 of 28 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 21 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 11 |
| Manny Bermudez | 11 of 19 | 57% | 5 of 11 | 2 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 9 of 16 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casey Kenney | 0 | 17 of 35 | 48% | 22 of 40 | 7 of 10 | 70% | 0 | 1 | 6:30 |
| Ray Borg | 0 | 32 of 52 | 61% | 46 of 68 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 3 | 6:23 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Casey Kenney | 0 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 4 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 1:36 |
| Ray Borg | 0 | 10 of 15 | 66% | 15 of 22 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:38 | |
| 2 | Casey Kenney | 0 | 7 of 10 | 70% | 8 of 11 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 2:36 |
| Ray Borg | 0 | 13 of 16 | 81% | 17 of 20 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 2 | 1:54 | |
| 3 | Casey Kenney | 0 | 8 of 21 | 38% | 10 of 23 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 2:18 |
| Ray Borg | 0 | 9 of 21 | 42% | 14 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 1:51 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casey Kenney | 17 of 35 | 48% | 8 of 23 | 8 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 14 | 13 of 19 | 2 of 2 |
| Ray Borg | 32 of 52 | 61% | 9 of 27 | 19 of 20 | 4 of 5 | 9 of 23 | 19 of 25 | 4 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Casey Kenney | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Ray Borg | 10 of 15 | 66% | 3 of 6 | 5 of 6 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 8 | 4 of 4 | 3 of 3 | |
| 2 | Casey Kenney | 7 of 10 | 70% | 3 of 5 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 1 |
| Ray Borg | 13 of 16 | 81% | 3 of 6 | 10 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 11 of 12 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Casey Kenney | 8 of 21 | 38% | 5 of 17 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 9 | 7 of 12 | 0 of 0 |
| Ray Borg | 9 of 21 | 42% | 3 of 15 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 12 | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
Alateng Heili - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Da'Mon Blackshear | 0 | 125 of 273 | 45% | 127 of 275 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alateng Heili | 0 | 61 of 190 | 32% | 61 of 191 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:18 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Da'Mon Blackshear | 0 | 37 of 78 | 47% | 37 of 78 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alateng Heili | 0 | 11 of 45 | 24% | 11 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Da'Mon Blackshear | 0 | 40 of 96 | 41% | 42 of 98 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alateng Heili | 0 | 25 of 60 | 41% | 25 of 61 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:18 | |
| 3 | Da'Mon Blackshear | 0 | 48 of 99 | 48% | 48 of 99 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alateng Heili | 0 | 25 of 85 | 29% | 25 of 85 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Da'Mon Blackshear | 125 of 273 | 45% | 75 of 200 | 37 of 50 | 13 of 23 | 123 of 270 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Alateng Heili | 61 of 190 | 32% | 34 of 148 | 19 of 34 | 8 of 8 | 60 of 189 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Da'Mon Blackshear | 37 of 78 | 47% | 17 of 45 | 15 of 21 | 5 of 12 | 37 of 78 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Alateng Heili | 11 of 45 | 24% | 7 of 38 | 1 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 11 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Da'Mon Blackshear | 40 of 96 | 41% | 24 of 74 | 11 of 15 | 5 of 7 | 39 of 95 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Alateng Heili | 25 of 60 | 41% | 11 of 41 | 13 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 24 of 59 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Da'Mon Blackshear | 48 of 99 | 48% | 34 of 81 | 11 of 14 | 3 of 4 | 47 of 97 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Alateng Heili | 25 of 85 | 29% | 16 of 69 | 5 of 12 | 4 of 4 | 25 of 85 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Da'Mon Blackshear, citing his athleticism, speed, power, and ability to mix striking and grappling. He notes that Alateng Heili struggles to combine his skills, and that Blackshear's technical boxing and clean takedowns should prevail. He has Blackshear in a parlay with Joselyne Edwards.
Big Brady is confident in Da'Mon Blackshear, highlighting his superior grappling and Alateng Heili's low volume and lack of wrestling. He expects Blackshear to get the fight to the ground and submit Heili, noting a massive skill gap on the mat. He predicts a second-round submission.
The host acknowledges Heili's wrestling could cause issues but believes Blackshear's striking power and BJJ black belt will keep him safe and allow him to grind out a decision win.
The MMA Guru picks Da'Mon Blackshear to win by finish in the first two rounds. He cites Blackshear's reach advantage (5.5 inches), activity, and ability to dictate range. He notes Heili is not a pressure fighter and fights once a year, which hurts his development. He expects Blackshear to hurt Heili and finish via TKO or submission.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alateng Heili | 0 | 18 of 59 | 30% | 107 of 183 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 8:16 |
| Kleydson Rodrigues | 0 | 37 of 88 | 42% | 70 of 126 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:30 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alateng Heili | 0 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 49 of 73 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 4:10 |
| Kleydson Rodrigues | 0 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 9 of 14 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:20 | |
| 2 | Alateng Heili | 0 | 8 of 25 | 32% | 24 of 48 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:05 |
| Kleydson Rodrigues | 0 | 19 of 50 | 38% | 30 of 62 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Alateng Heili | 0 | 7 of 28 | 25% | 34 of 62 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:01 |
| Kleydson Rodrigues | 0 | 16 of 34 | 47% | 31 of 50 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alateng Heili | 18 of 59 | 30% | 14 of 50 | 3 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 15 of 53 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 6 |
| Kleydson Rodrigues | 37 of 88 | 42% | 15 of 55 | 10 of 15 | 12 of 18 | 37 of 88 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alateng Heili | 3 of 6 | 50% | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 |
| Kleydson Rodrigues | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Alateng Heili | 8 of 25 | 32% | 6 of 19 | 1 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
| Kleydson Rodrigues | 19 of 50 | 38% | 9 of 31 | 3 of 7 | 7 of 12 | 19 of 50 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Alateng Heili | 7 of 28 | 25% | 5 of 25 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Kleydson Rodrigues | 16 of 34 | 47% | 6 of 23 | 6 of 7 | 4 of 4 | 16 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo notes that Alateng Heili struggles with forward pressure and brawlers, and can only do one thing at a time—strike or grapple. Kleydson Rodrigues brings constant forward pressure, versatile striking with kicks, and solid takedown offense from the clinch. However, Rodrigues can be overexposed and taken down. Angelo leans Rodrigues but worries if Heili decides to grapple, which could cause problems.
Cody sees Rodrigues as a potential fraud: he missed weight twice, has poor cardio, and his power may not translate up at bantamweight. Heili is tough, durable, and has never been finished. Cody believes Heili's wrestling defense and forward pressure will wear Rodrigues down, and he expects Heili to win a decision or possibly get a late finish.
Rodrigues is a former flyweight adjusting to 135 lbs but has superior striking and a BJJ black belt. He should be able to box up Alateng Heili, who over-relied on striking against Chris Gutierrez and lost. Expects Rodrigues to win on the scorecards using his striking advantage.
Paul notes Heili is durable and has never been finished in the UFC, while Rodrigues has struggled with weight cuts and cardio. He believes Heili's toughness and pressure will be a problem for Rodrigues, who may fade if he doesn't get an early finish. Paul sees value in Heili as a slight underdog.
The MMA Guru picks Alateng Heili as an underdog over Kleydson Rodrigues. He believes the odds are incorrect and that Heili is a more consistent and composed fighter with good striking. He criticizes Rodrigues' losses, including a finish by Farid Basharat, and notes that Rodrigues' only UFC win is against Shannon Ross, which he dismisses as unimpressive. He also mentions Heili's takedown ability as a potential factor.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alateng Heili | 0 | 39 of 143 | 27% | 56 of 163 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Chad Anheliger | 0 | 49 of 131 | 37% | 60 of 148 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:23 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alateng Heili | 0 | 12 of 43 | 27% | 13 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Chad Anheliger | 0 | 16 of 44 | 36% | 16 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Alateng Heili | 0 | 14 of 53 | 26% | 14 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Chad Anheliger | 0 | 16 of 45 | 35% | 16 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Alateng Heili | 0 | 13 of 47 | 27% | 29 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Chad Anheliger | 0 | 17 of 42 | 40% | 28 of 59 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:23 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alateng Heili | 39 of 143 | 27% | 25 of 118 | 8 of 14 | 6 of 11 | 35 of 139 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 |
| Chad Anheliger | 49 of 131 | 37% | 30 of 102 | 6 of 7 | 13 of 22 | 43 of 123 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 8 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alateng Heili | 12 of 43 | 27% | 11 of 35 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 4 | 12 of 43 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Chad Anheliger | 16 of 44 | 36% | 9 of 33 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 9 | 16 of 44 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Alateng Heili | 14 of 53 | 26% | 8 of 45 | 4 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 14 of 53 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Chad Anheliger | 16 of 45 | 35% | 9 of 36 | 4 of 4 | 3 of 5 | 16 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Alateng Heili | 13 of 47 | 27% | 6 of 38 | 3 of 4 | 4 of 5 | 9 of 43 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 |
| Chad Anheliger | 17 of 42 | 40% | 12 of 33 | 0 of 1 | 5 of 8 | 11 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 8 |
Angelo picks Chad Anheliger, liking his power and ability to not be fazed by takedowns. He notes Anheliger has been taken down nine times in two UFC fights but still won, showing he scrambles back up and keeps firing. He expects Heili to work in grappling but believes Anheliger's resilience and power will get the job done.
Big Brady picks Chad Anheliger as a live dog, citing Alateng Heili's reluctance to wrestle despite having a wrestling background. He notes Heili has zero takedowns in his last three fights and poor striking volume, while Anheliger has power and has shown durability. He predicts Anheliger wins by decision, though he is not sure if he will bet it.
Cody picks Alateng Heili, noting his wrestling advantage and durability. He believes Heili will take Anheliger down and control the fight. He points out that Anheliger looked bad against Jesse Strader, getting taken down multiple times, and that his cardio is questionable. He thinks Heili is the better fighter.
Daniel Levi picks Alateng Heili, citing his physicality and improved wrestling. He respects Anheliger's toughness and comeback ability, but thinks Heili's size and takedowns will be the difference. He notes that if Heili gasses, Anheliger could take over, but expects Heili's conditioning at Fight Ready to hold up.
Jacob picks Alateng Heili but is hesitant, calling it the toughest fight to pick. He notes Heili is technical with power and has backdoor wrestling if he uses it. He worries about Anheliger's hands-down head movement and thinks Heili's technical striking and power could catch him. However, he admits if Anheliger wins, he wouldn't be surprised.
The host picks Alateng Heili, believing he has too many tools for Anheliger. He expects Heili to mix in wrestling to set up his striking, avoid trading in the pocket, and win a decision. He notes Anheliger's power but thinks Heili is the more complete fighter and that the line is accurate.
Paul picks Alateng Heili, agreeing with Cody. He notes that Anheliger has cardio issues and was taken down multiple times by Jesse Strader. He believes Heili's wrestling and durability will be the difference, and that he is the more reliable fighter.
The MMA Guru picks Chad Anheliger to win by decision, 30-27. He expects a scrappy fight where both rock each other and get takedowns, but Anheliger recovers quicker, scrambles harder, and ends up in dominant positions with better ground and pound. He out-hustles Alateng in every occasion.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alateng Heili | 1 | 9 of 17 | 52% | 9 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Kevin Croom | 0 | 2 of 12 | 16% | 2 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alateng Heili | 1 | 9 of 17 | 52% | 9 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Kevin Croom | 0 | 2 of 12 | 16% | 2 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alateng Heili | 9 of 17 | 52% | 9 of 16 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
| Kevin Croom | 2 of 12 | 16% | 0 of 5 | 1 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alateng Heili | 9 of 17 | 52% | 9 of 16 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
| Kevin Croom | 2 of 12 | 16% | 0 of 5 | 1 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Alateng Heili, but thinks the odds are a bit wide. He notes that Heili is a technical striker who can struggle with brawlers like Croom. He believes Heili can get the fight to the ground if needed, but must be wary of Croom's submissions. He considers Croom a far better fighter than his recent record shows.
Big Brady picks Kevin Croom for the upset by decision. He notes Croom has a massive size advantage (6 inches taller, 6.5 inch reach) and will throw more volume than Alateng Heili, who has low output (max 47 significant strikes in a UFC fight). He expects Croom to win minutes on the feet and avoid Heili's power. He acknowledges Croom's takedown accuracy is poor but thinks Heili's wrestling plays into Croom's ground game.
Cody picks Heili, emphasizing his wrestling and top pressure. He notes Croom's size but thinks Heili can take him down and win from guard. He believes Heili's camp at Fight Ready will help him execute the right game plan.
Daniel Levi leans Alateng Heili, noting this is his proper weight class and he is likely fight-ready with good conditioning. He respects Croom's size and finishing ability but worries about Croom cutting to 135 and fading late, as he has a history of losing decisions. Levi expects Heili to win a decision.
Paul picks Heili, citing his wrestling advantage and durability. He thinks Heili can take Croom down and control him. He notes Heili's poor decision-making in the past but believes he will wrestle here.
The MMA Guru picks Kevin Croom as an underdog, believing the odds are incorrect. He notes Croom's 7-inch reach advantage and awkward striking style, and doubts Heili's chin and technical ability. He expects Croom to win a 29-28 unanimous decision, possibly losing the third round.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gustavo Lopez | 0 | 44 of 115 | 38% | 47 of 119 | 3 of 8 | 37% | 1 | 0 | 2:03 |
| Alateng Heili | 0 | 36 of 118 | 30% | 37 of 120 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gustavo Lopez | 0 | 10 of 30 | 33% | 10 of 30 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
| Alateng Heili | 0 | 11 of 42 | 26% | 12 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 | |
| 2 | Gustavo Lopez | 0 | 11 of 35 | 31% | 11 of 35 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
| Alateng Heili | 0 | 15 of 41 | 36% | 15 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Gustavo Lopez | 0 | 23 of 50 | 46% | 26 of 54 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 1 | 0 | 1:38 |
| Alateng Heili | 0 | 10 of 35 | 28% | 10 of 35 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gustavo Lopez | 44 of 115 | 38% | 32 of 93 | 5 of 10 | 7 of 12 | 35 of 99 | 2 of 6 | 7 of 10 |
| Alateng Heili | 36 of 118 | 30% | 23 of 102 | 10 of 12 | 3 of 4 | 35 of 115 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gustavo Lopez | 10 of 30 | 33% | 8 of 26 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 29 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Alateng Heili | 11 of 42 | 26% | 7 of 38 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 42 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Gustavo Lopez | 11 of 35 | 31% | 5 of 24 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 9 | 11 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Alateng Heili | 15 of 41 | 36% | 10 of 34 | 2 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 15 of 40 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Gustavo Lopez | 23 of 50 | 46% | 19 of 43 | 3 of 5 | 1 of 2 | 14 of 35 | 2 of 5 | 7 of 10 |
| Alateng Heili | 10 of 35 | 28% | 6 of 30 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 1 | 9 of 33 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo acknowledges that Alateng has more tools and is more technical, but he thinks Gustavo's brawling style and willingness to throw wild punches from unorthodox angles will frustrate Alateng. He notes that Alateng can struggle against brawlers and that Gustavo's toughness and pressure could lead to a win. He is hesitant because Alateng has a wrestling backup plan.
Big Brady picks Alateng Heili based on his superior wrestling, expecting takedowns and top control to be the difference. He acknowledges Lopez is dangerous on the mat with a 92% finish rate, so Heili must be careful. He sees the fight as very close and is not betting it. He predicts a decision win for Heili.
Cody leans toward Alateng Heili, citing his durability and wrestling. He notes that Lopez tends to tire and that Heili has shown he can absorb punishment and grind out decisions. Cody is not confident and calls it a 'dog or pass' situation.
Daniel Levi picks Gustavo Lopez over Alateng Heili. He praises Heili's toughness but notes that Heili's flight from China could be a factor, though a commenter says Heili trained at Fight Ready this camp, which changes things. Levi still sees it as a close fight but thinks Lopez will land harder shots, stuff takedowns, and win a competitive decision.
Preet leans Alateng Heili because he believes the wrestling will cancel out and the fight will become a striking battle, where Alateng has straighter, crisper strikes. He thinks Lopez's striking is too wild and loopy, and that Alateng's wrestling background allows him to sprawl and brawl. He expects Alateng to win by decision and likes the over 2.5 rounds.
Paul leans toward Lopez, noting his striking advantage and that Heili has been outstruck in every UFC fight. He worries about Lopez's cardio but thinks he can win the first two rounds. Paul calls it a close fight and suggests live betting.
The MMA Guru picks Alateng Heili over Gustavo Lopez, noting Heili's recent improvement (10-2 in last 12) and a good win over Dana Batgarel. He criticizes Lopez's performance against Adrian Yanez, saying he looked lost. He trusts Heili's chin and experience, predicting a 29-28 decision win.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casey Kenney | 0 | 109 of 263 | 41% | 109 of 263 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alateng Heili | 0 | 46 of 171 | 26% | 46 of 171 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Casey Kenney | 0 | 40 of 94 | 42% | 40 of 94 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alateng Heili | 0 | 19 of 64 | 29% | 19 of 64 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Casey Kenney | 0 | 29 of 79 | 36% | 29 of 79 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alateng Heili | 0 | 14 of 52 | 26% | 14 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Casey Kenney | 0 | 40 of 90 | 44% | 40 of 90 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alateng Heili | 0 | 13 of 55 | 23% | 13 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casey Kenney | 109 of 263 | 41% | 57 of 192 | 41 of 58 | 11 of 13 | 109 of 261 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Alateng Heili | 46 of 171 | 26% | 26 of 140 | 11 of 20 | 9 of 11 | 46 of 171 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Casey Kenney | 40 of 94 | 42% | 21 of 69 | 15 of 19 | 4 of 6 | 40 of 94 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Alateng Heili | 19 of 64 | 29% | 9 of 53 | 5 of 6 | 5 of 5 | 19 of 64 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Casey Kenney | 29 of 79 | 36% | 11 of 58 | 15 of 18 | 3 of 3 | 29 of 79 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Alateng Heili | 14 of 52 | 26% | 9 of 43 | 2 of 4 | 3 of 5 | 14 of 52 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Casey Kenney | 40 of 90 | 44% | 25 of 65 | 11 of 21 | 4 of 4 | 40 of 88 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Alateng Heili | 13 of 55 | 23% | 8 of 44 | 4 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 55 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Casey Kenney to win by decision. He highlights Kenney's superior striking volume and takedown defense, noting that Heili is low volume and gets outlanded. He thinks Kenney is better everywhere and that Heili's only chance is a knockout.
Daniel confidently picks Kenney, praising his fight IQ and level of competition. He expects Kenney to use kicks to avoid Heili's right hand, mix in takedowns, and dominate on top. He notes Heili's toughness and power but believes Kenney is on a different level and will out-tough him.
The host is extremely confident in Casey Kenney, citing his superior grappling, scrambles, and experience against high-level grapplers like Manny Bermudez and Brandon Royval. He believes Alateng Heili's wrestling credentials won't translate to MMA grappling and that Kenney will dominate on the ground. He placed a 5-unit bet at -281, calling it his lock of the night.
The Guru picks Casey Kenney, citing his quality wins over Manny Bermudez, Ray Borg, and Louis Smolka, and noting that Alateng's close fight with Ryan Benoit was unimpressive. He acknowledges Kenney is a heavy favorite at 1-3 odds but still picks him, predicting a submission in the first or second round.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alateng Heili | 0 | 47 of 131 | 35% | 72 of 160 | 4 of 13 | 30% | 0 | 0 | 3:19 |
| Ryan Benoit | 0 | 68 of 128 | 53% | 84 of 145 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alateng Heili | 0 | 12 of 50 | 24% | 15 of 53 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Ryan Benoit | 0 | 19 of 32 | 59% | 19 of 32 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Alateng Heili | 0 | 28 of 65 | 43% | 28 of 65 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ryan Benoit | 0 | 26 of 59 | 44% | 26 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Alateng Heili | 0 | 7 of 16 | 43% | 29 of 42 | 4 of 12 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 3:04 |
| Ryan Benoit | 0 | 23 of 37 | 62% | 39 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alateng Heili | 47 of 131 | 35% | 27 of 108 | 11 of 13 | 9 of 10 | 47 of 131 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Ryan Benoit | 68 of 128 | 53% | 45 of 101 | 17 of 21 | 6 of 6 | 53 of 112 | 15 of 16 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alateng Heili | 12 of 50 | 24% | 9 of 46 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 12 of 50 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Ryan Benoit | 19 of 32 | 59% | 6 of 19 | 10 of 10 | 3 of 3 | 18 of 31 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Alateng Heili | 28 of 65 | 43% | 13 of 49 | 9 of 10 | 6 of 6 | 28 of 65 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Ryan Benoit | 26 of 59 | 44% | 18 of 47 | 5 of 9 | 3 of 3 | 26 of 59 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Alateng Heili | 7 of 16 | 43% | 5 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 7 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Ryan Benoit | 23 of 37 | 62% | 21 of 35 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 22 | 14 of 15 | 0 of 0 |
Expert Picks (4)
Big Brady picks Casey Kenney to win by decision. He highlights Kenney's superior striking volume and takedown defense, noting that Heili is low volume and gets outlanded. He thinks Kenney is better everywhere and that Heili's only chance is a knockout.
Daniel confidently picks Kenney, praising his fight IQ and level of competition. He expects Kenney to use kicks to avoid Heili's right hand, mix in takedowns, and dominate on top. He notes Heili's toughness and power but believes Kenney is on a different level and will out-tough him.
The host is extremely confident in Casey Kenney, citing his superior grappling, scrambles, and experience against high-level grapplers like Manny Bermudez and Brandon Royval. He believes Alateng Heili's wrestling credentials won't translate to MMA grappling and that Kenney will dominate on the ground. He placed a 5-unit bet at -281, calling it his lock of the night.
The Guru picks Casey Kenney, citing his quality wins over Manny Bermudez, Ray Borg, and Louis Smolka, and noting that Alateng's close fight with Ryan Benoit was unimpressive. He acknowledges Kenney is a heavy favorite at 1-3 odds but still picks him, predicting a submission in the first or second round.
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