Career Averages - Jamahal Hill
Career Averages - Thiago Santos
Jamahal Hill
Thiago Santos
Jamahal Hill - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamahal Hill | 0 | 69 of 172 | 40% | 70 of 173 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Khalil Rountree Jr. | 1 | 102 of 181 | 56% | 102 of 181 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jamahal Hill | 0 | 14 of 30 | 46% | 14 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Khalil Rountree Jr. | 0 | 17 of 30 | 56% | 17 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jamahal Hill | 0 | 15 of 33 | 45% | 16 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Khalil Rountree Jr. | 0 | 15 of 35 | 42% | 15 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Jamahal Hill | 0 | 6 of 25 | 24% | 6 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Khalil Rountree Jr. | 1 | 15 of 29 | 51% | 15 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Jamahal Hill | 0 | 8 of 28 | 28% | 8 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Khalil Rountree Jr. | 0 | 18 of 30 | 60% | 18 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Jamahal Hill | 0 | 26 of 56 | 46% | 26 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Khalil Rountree Jr. | 0 | 37 of 57 | 64% | 37 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamahal Hill | 69 of 172 | 40% | 47 of 142 | 7 of 12 | 15 of 18 | 68 of 170 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Khalil Rountree Jr. | 102 of 181 | 56% | 30 of 91 | 42 of 54 | 30 of 36 | 102 of 181 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jamahal Hill | 14 of 30 | 46% | 2 of 17 | 3 of 3 | 9 of 10 | 14 of 29 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Khalil Rountree Jr. | 17 of 30 | 56% | 2 of 13 | 7 of 8 | 8 of 9 | 17 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jamahal Hill | 15 of 33 | 45% | 10 of 25 | 2 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 14 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Khalil Rountree Jr. | 15 of 35 | 42% | 3 of 19 | 5 of 7 | 7 of 9 | 15 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jamahal Hill | 6 of 25 | 24% | 6 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 6 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Khalil Rountree Jr. | 15 of 29 | 51% | 7 of 17 | 2 of 5 | 6 of 7 | 15 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Jamahal Hill | 8 of 28 | 28% | 8 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Khalil Rountree Jr. | 18 of 30 | 60% | 8 of 17 | 6 of 7 | 4 of 6 | 18 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Jamahal Hill | 26 of 56 | 46% | 21 of 49 | 2 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 26 of 56 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Khalil Rountree Jr. | 37 of 57 | 64% | 10 of 25 | 22 of 27 | 5 of 5 | 37 of 57 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Khalil Rountree Jr., citing his durability and power. He notes that Rountree went toe-to-toe with Alex Pereira and showed he belongs. He thinks Jamahal Hill has good footwork but may slow down, and that Rountree has more upside. He expects a fun fight and thinks Rountree can win if he pressures.
Big Brady picks Jamahal Hill as a plus money underdog, but he is very hesitant due to Hill's recent performances after a gruesome injury. He notes that if Hill were the same fighter who beat Glover Teixeira, he would be max betting him, but the Hill who fought Pereira and Prochazka looked bad. Brady worries about Hill's durability and whether the injury took something out of him. He ultimately picks Hill but says he's not sure if he wants to put money on him, predicting a late finish or decision.
Connor picks Rountree, emphasizing that Rountree is a much more consistent technician while Hill is a bad technician with poor footwork and defense, leaving him open to be picked apart. He notes that Hill's durability against Prochazka may not hold against a cleaner puncher like Rountree, and that Rountree's roteness gives him consistency similar to Pereira. He believes if Rountree can't finish early, Hill's pressure could turn the fight, but he still favors Rountree.
The host notes Rountree opened around -160 but has moved to -120 as money came in on Hill, and he agrees with that movement. He thinks this is a great stylistic matchup for Hill to batter Rountree from distance, counter strike effectively, and pull away in deep water, predicting a round three or four KO finish.
The MMA Guru picks Khalil Rountree Jr., despite acknowledging Jamahal Hill's underrated skills. He believes Rountree's low kicks will be decisive, and notes Hill's predictable movement. He also cites Rountree's longer recovery time since his loss to Pereira compared to Hill's recent brutal loss to Prochazka. He predicts a leg kick TKO in round 2 or 3.
Zane picks Rountree based on the stark technical advantage he sees in 30 seconds of footage: Rountree is much cleaner as a striker with better footwork, power, speed, and a more varied arsenal. However, he acknowledges Hill's comfort in messiness and ability to up the intensity over five rounds, drawing a parallel to Diaz vs Edwards. He is hesitant because Hill's durability and scrapping mentality could turn the fight late, but he ultimately sticks with Rountree.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jiří Procházka | 2 | 97 of 165 | 58% | 101 of 170 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:22 |
| Jamahal Hill | 0 | 81 of 177 | 45% | 84 of 180 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jiří Procházka | 1 | 32 of 58 | 55% | 32 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
| Jamahal Hill | 0 | 23 of 64 | 35% | 25 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jiří Procházka | 0 | 22 of 49 | 44% | 22 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jamahal Hill | 0 | 38 of 74 | 51% | 38 of 74 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Jiří Procházka | 1 | 43 of 58 | 74% | 47 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Jamahal Hill | 0 | 20 of 39 | 51% | 21 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jiří Procházka | 97 of 165 | 58% | 73 of 132 | 19 of 23 | 5 of 10 | 71 of 129 | 10 of 13 | 16 of 23 |
| Jamahal Hill | 81 of 177 | 45% | 55 of 145 | 24 of 29 | 2 of 3 | 68 of 158 | 13 of 19 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jiří Procházka | 32 of 58 | 55% | 27 of 51 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 3 | 28 of 51 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 1 |
| Jamahal Hill | 23 of 64 | 35% | 17 of 56 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 2 | 21 of 59 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jiří Procházka | 22 of 49 | 44% | 12 of 33 | 9 of 12 | 1 of 4 | 22 of 49 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jamahal Hill | 38 of 74 | 51% | 25 of 59 | 12 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 34 of 69 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jiří Procházka | 43 of 58 | 74% | 34 of 48 | 7 of 7 | 2 of 3 | 21 of 29 | 6 of 7 | 16 of 22 |
| Jamahal Hill | 20 of 39 | 51% | 13 of 30 | 7 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 30 | 7 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo flips his pick to Jiří Procházka after initially favoring Jamal Hill. He cites Hill's poor weight management (claiming to be 240 lbs), delusion about his loss to Pereira, and lack of recent training. He believes Procházka's relentless pressure, durability, and never-quit attitude will overwhelm Hill, who has been inactive and may not be in proper fight shape.
Cody picks Jamahal Hill, viewing him as a value play. He criticizes Procházka's defensive liabilities, wild style, and lack of a fallback grappling game. Cody notes that Procházka has been knocked out multiple times and relies on landing a big shot. In contrast, Hill is a volume striker with a good jab and right hand, and his only bad performance was on short notice against Pereira. Cody believes Hill's striking volume and durability will be key, and that Procházka's style plays into Hill's hands.
Connor picks Procházka, citing his sustained pressure and ability to overwhelm opponents. He notes that Procházka's messy but systematic style is more reliable than Hill's self-taught, technically flawed approach. Connor points out that Hill's footwork is terrible, with crossed feet and a narrow stance, making him vulnerable to pressure. He believes that if Hill doesn't knock Procházka out early, Procházka's pressure will break him down. Connor also mentions that Procházka's recent loss to Pereira might affect his confidence, but his win over Rakic shows he still has the same grit.
Daniel picks Hill, citing his volume as the best in light heavyweight history. He notes that Hill's durability and accuracy should be the difference, and that Procházka's defense is a concern. Daniel mentions that he took Hill at +100 earlier and believes the line should be closer to -150. He acknowledges both fighters have knockout power but thinks Hill can outclass Procházka.
Lucrative James picks Jamahal Hill via knockout, emphasizing Hill's power, volume, and ability to hurt opponents. He notes that Procházka gets hit frequently and has been dropped in many fights, while Hill has shown durability and heart, even with a broken arm against Paul Craig. James believes Hill's clean striking and cardio are on par with Procházka's, making it difficult for Procházka to break him late. He acknowledges recency bias from Hill's knockout loss to Alex Pereira but still favors Hill's striking accuracy and power.
The host leans with the power striking and pressure of Procházka. If his durability holds up, he should be able to pressure Hill, walk through his offense, land big shots, break him, and finish him within 10 minutes.
Paul leans Hill but is less confident than Cody. He prefers the prop 'fight doesn't go to decision' as a parlay piece, expecting a knockout. Paul notes that Procházka is a wild striker who gets hit a lot, and Hill has good durability. However, he points out Hill's takedown defense issues (Thiago Santos fight) as a potential path for Procházka. Paul thinks someone's head will get knocked off, and he leans Hill based on volume and chin.
Zane agrees with Connor, picking Procházka. He emphasizes that Procházka's pressure and ability to force chaotic fights will be too much for Hill. Zane notes that Hill's technical flaws, especially his footwork and tendency to trade shots, play into Procházka's strengths. He also points out that Hill's path to the title was against aging fighters, while Procházka has faced tougher competition. Zane acknowledges the risk of Hill's power but believes Procházka's durability and pressure will win out.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Pereira | 1 | 24 of 30 | 80% | 24 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
| Jamahal Hill | 0 | 12 of 22 | 54% | 12 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alex Pereira | 1 | 24 of 30 | 80% | 24 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
| Jamahal Hill | 0 | 12 of 22 | 54% | 12 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Pereira | 24 of 30 | 80% | 12 of 15 | 6 of 6 | 6 of 9 | 13 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 14 |
| Jamahal Hill | 12 of 22 | 54% | 1 of 7 | 3 of 6 | 8 of 9 | 12 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alex Pereira | 24 of 30 | 80% | 12 of 15 | 6 of 6 | 6 of 9 | 13 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 14 |
| Jamahal Hill | 12 of 22 | 54% | 1 of 7 | 3 of 6 | 8 of 9 | 12 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Pereira (-130), Hill (+110)
Round 1
It may not have the blockbuster name like a Conor McGregor or Brock Lesnar type, but the headliner of UFC 300 is a legit matchup that promises action from start to finish. Pereira (9-2, 6-1 UFC) aims to make the first defense of his light heavyweight throne—a two-division champ at that—against a man in Hill (12-1, 1 NC; 6-1, 1 NC UFC) that never his belt in the cage. The rightful champion should emerge from this one, and they will have 25 minutes to punch one another’s lights out. Referee Herb Dean will try to stay away from any errant blows, and he brings them together to bump fists before the last fight of this storied event kicks off. It’s on with the show. Pereira whips a leg kick out to test the water, and Hill responds in kind. Pereira scores another, and Hill kicks him on the inside of the front leg. Pereira checks a low kick, and he skims one off the shin. Hill reaches out with a left hand, and Pereira measures a right. Pereira scores a loud body kick, and Hill darts in to land a solid right hand over the top. Hill turns his hips into low kicks from both sides, and Pereira chops back. Hill grabs Pereira’s wrist while they hand-fight with one another, and Hill prods out a front kick. Pereira gets in a hefty calf kick, and he jabs the body. Hill goes high with his shin, and Pereira blocks it in time. Hill digs a kick to the ribs, and he lances out two left hands. Pereira digs a right to the midsection, and he absorbs kicks on each side of his leg as he tries to check them all. Hill wraps a kick up to the body, and it bounces off the cop. Pereira waves Dean off and unloads a left hand that sends Hill crashing to the mat. Pereira smashes his fallen foe with otherworldly power, and he finishes the job with thunderous hammerfists. Hill completely goes out, and Dean leaps between them when recognizing “Sweet Dreams” is off in dreamland. “Poatan” stands back and motions to his handiwork, pointing at the unconscious Hill. Hill manages to sit up and come to, and he appears to ask Dean what happened as he stands up confused. Pereira’s coach, Glover Teixeira, awards the defending champion with his Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt as they celebrate and embrace. Even the stoic Pereira cracks a smile. Ten wins into his MMA career, and Pereira has now won and lost the middleweight belt, and claimed and defended the light heavyweight throne. Pereira declares that he wishes to keep defending this belt, and he also expresses interest in competing at heavyweight—possibly in Rio de Janeiro in a few weeks. When taking photos with his team, Pereira dances a little and lets fly some of his more fun side. With that crushing knockout in the books, UFC 300 has reached its conclusion, and what an event it was. Several year-end awards will likely go to this memorable fight card, and if not, something truly spectacular will need to happen in the next eight months. If and when that happens, we will be there for it. We hope are too.
The Official Result
Alex Pereira def. Jamahal Hill R1 3:14 via KO (Punches)
Angelo picks Alex Pereira, citing his power and physicality. He notes Hill may be the better striker and Pereira gets hit a lot, but Hill's layoff and injury recovery are concerns. He mentions Hill looked out of shape recently and may not be fully prepared. He acknowledges it wouldn't surprise him if Hill wins.
Cody acknowledges this is a flip-flop fight between Hill's volume and Pereira's power. He leans Pereira because he trusts Pereira's preparation and shape, while Hill is coming off a long layoff with an Achilles injury and doesn't appear to be in peak condition. Cody notes Hill has never been knocked down and has a cast iron chin, but Pereira's left hook is a constant threat. He also mentions Hill has zero takedowns in the UFC and Glover Teixeira is in Pereira's corner, providing familiarity. Ultimately, he goes with the power over volume, but admits it could go either way.
Daniel Vreeland picks Jamahal Hill to win by knockout, citing Hill's superior power and speed, his ability to switch stances to negate Pereira's calf kicks, and his proven durability. He notes that Pereira gets hit often and has been knocked out before, while Hill has never been rocked on the feet. Vreeland also mentions Hill's ground game as a potential factor, but expects a standup war.
Daniel Vreeland picks Alex Pereira, citing that the line is great value. He notes that Pereira is a world-class kickboxer and that Hill's best kickboxing opponent might be Johnny Walker. He also mentions that Hill has been injured for over a year and may not be sharp. He believes Pereira's technical striking will be too much for Hill.
Jeff Fox picks Alex Pereira, agreeing with Vreeland. He notes that Hill was not cleared to train until February, which is alarming. He also mentions that Hill seems convinced he can box with Pereira, but his past fights don't show that level of striking. He believes Pereira's technical striking will be the difference.
Pereira is the technically better fighter. Hill is coming back too early from injury and took the fight for the big stage, which will cause bad decisions. Pereira's striking will take advantage and land the check left hook, putting Hill out within two or three rounds.
Paul agrees with Cody, laying the chalk with Pereira. He notes the strange narrative of Hill immediately contacting Israel Adesanya for advice, which suggests short-notice preparation. Paul points out that throwing volume leaves you open for counters, and Pereira can take your head off at any point. He also mentions Hill has never been hurt or knocked down, so Pereira needs to land the money shot. Paul sees the fight as super competitive but favors Pereira's power and preparation.
The MMA Guru picks Alex Pereira to win, citing Hill's defensive flaws and long layoff after an Achilles injury. He notes Hill's right hand drops and that Pereira's left hook and low kicks will be key. He worries about Hill's momentum and believes Pereira can find the knockout.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamahal Hill | 0 | 75 of 160 | 46% | 108 of 196 | 2 of 17 | 11% | 0 | 0 | 3:26 |
| Glover Teixeira | 0 | 232 of 402 | 57% | 248 of 419 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 3:26 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jamahal Hill | 0 | 12 of 27 | 44% | 14 of 29 | 0 of 7 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Glover Teixeira | 0 | 46 of 85 | 54% | 47 of 86 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jamahal Hill | 0 | 21 of 44 | 47% | 28 of 52 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 1:16 |
| Glover Teixeira | 0 | 51 of 91 | 56% | 52 of 92 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 | |
| 3 | Jamahal Hill | 0 | 17 of 30 | 56% | 18 of 31 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
| Glover Teixeira | 0 | 44 of 82 | 53% | 51 of 89 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:34 | |
| 4 | Jamahal Hill | 0 | 18 of 41 | 43% | 18 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Glover Teixeira | 0 | 79 of 120 | 65% | 79 of 120 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 | |
| 5 | Jamahal Hill | 0 | 7 of 18 | 38% | 30 of 43 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:44 |
| Glover Teixeira | 0 | 12 of 24 | 50% | 19 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 1:42 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamahal Hill | 75 of 160 | 46% | 52 of 136 | 19 of 20 | 4 of 4 | 65 of 145 | 5 of 6 | 5 of 9 |
| Glover Teixeira | 232 of 402 | 57% | 180 of 343 | 42 of 49 | 10 of 10 | 188 of 347 | 18 of 21 | 26 of 34 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jamahal Hill | 12 of 27 | 44% | 7 of 21 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 12 of 26 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Glover Teixeira | 46 of 85 | 54% | 27 of 65 | 13 of 14 | 6 of 6 | 42 of 81 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jamahal Hill | 21 of 44 | 47% | 15 of 38 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 15 of 37 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 3 |
| Glover Teixeira | 51 of 91 | 56% | 38 of 77 | 9 of 10 | 4 of 4 | 49 of 87 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jamahal Hill | 17 of 30 | 56% | 13 of 26 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 17 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Glover Teixeira | 44 of 82 | 53% | 41 of 76 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 24 of 56 | 1 of 1 | 19 of 25 | |
| 4 | Jamahal Hill | 18 of 41 | 43% | 12 of 35 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 17 of 40 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Glover Teixeira | 79 of 120 | 65% | 65 of 104 | 14 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 68 of 108 | 11 of 12 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Jamahal Hill | 7 of 18 | 38% | 5 of 16 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 6 |
| Glover Teixeira | 12 of 24 | 50% | 9 of 21 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 9 |
Big Brady picks the 43-year-old Teixeira despite age concerns, noting he has been counted out before and keeps winning. He highlights Teixeira's durability, having not been knocked out since 2017, and his excellent grappling and ground and pound. He questions Hill's takedown defense, as he was taken down six times by Thiago Santos. He thinks Teixeira can get takedowns and finish, but has low confidence due to Hill's power. He predicts a finish.
Cody picks Jamahal Hill but admits he is not super confident. He thinks Hill is one of the best strikers in the division with power and calmness, and believes Hill will clip Glover in the later rounds after giving up early rounds. He acknowledges Glover's massive grappling advantage and Hill's poor takedown defense, but thinks Hill's youth and striking will prevail. He suggests live betting Glover after losing early rounds.
Connor picks Jamahal Hill, citing youth, power, and the likelihood that Glover gets hurt and finished early. He compares it to the Anthony Johnson loss where Glover was iced in 13 seconds. Connor admits Glover is better everywhere but feels Hill's speed and one-two power could end it quickly. He acknowledges that if the fight goes past one round, Glover likely wins.
Paul picks Glover Teixeira but is very cautious, admitting bias because he loves Glover. He notes Glover's massive grappling advantage and great wrestling, but acknowledges he is long in the tooth and gives up speed. He sees arguments for both sides and is not betting pre-fight, but might bet live if things go well. He thinks Glover can win via grappling and top control.
The Guru picks Teixeira as an underdog. He rewatched Hill vs Santos and noted Santos took Hill down six times, and Hill gave up bad positions. Teixeira's grappling is superior, and he stayed in shape after a December fight was canceled. The Guru criticizes Hill's physique, saying he had a 'huge belly' in fight announcement videos. He predicts Teixeira will find a rear-naked choke in the second or third round, or possibly after rocking Hill on the feet.
Zane picks Glover Teixeira, arguing that Glover is a much better fighter overall—better striker, wrestler, and grappler. He notes that Jamahal Hill has poor defense, walks in straight lines, and has never faced a grappler of Glover's caliber. Zane believes Glover's improved boxing and ability to survive being hurt will carry him to victory, especially if the fight goes past the first round.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamahal Hill | 0 | 53 of 94 | 56% | 56 of 98 | 6 of 20 | 30% | 0 | 0 | 5:54 |
| Thiago Santos | 0 | 89 of 152 | 58% | 130 of 194 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:26 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jamahal Hill | 0 | 10 of 18 | 55% | 11 of 19 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:23 |
| Thiago Santos | 0 | 9 of 30 | 30% | 18 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jamahal Hill | 0 | 16 of 38 | 42% | 16 of 38 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0:41 |
| Thiago Santos | 0 | 31 of 52 | 59% | 35 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:22 | |
| 3 | Jamahal Hill | 0 | 8 of 11 | 72% | 10 of 14 | 5 of 11 | 45% | 0 | 0 | 3:50 |
| Thiago Santos | 0 | 9 of 11 | 81% | 23 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:33 | |
| 4 | Jamahal Hill | 0 | 19 of 27 | 70% | 19 of 27 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Thiago Santos | 0 | 40 of 59 | 67% | 54 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:31 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamahal Hill | 53 of 94 | 56% | 28 of 66 | 13 of 16 | 12 of 12 | 43 of 82 | 8 of 9 | 2 of 3 |
| Thiago Santos | 89 of 152 | 58% | 68 of 131 | 12 of 12 | 9 of 9 | 52 of 107 | 19 of 21 | 18 of 24 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jamahal Hill | 10 of 18 | 55% | 1 of 8 | 3 of 4 | 6 of 6 | 9 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Thiago Santos | 9 of 30 | 30% | 5 of 26 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 26 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jamahal Hill | 16 of 38 | 42% | 9 of 29 | 5 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 14 of 35 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 1 |
| Thiago Santos | 31 of 52 | 59% | 19 of 40 | 5 of 5 | 7 of 7 | 28 of 48 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jamahal Hill | 8 of 11 | 72% | 6 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 2 |
| Thiago Santos | 9 of 11 | 81% | 5 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 4 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Jamahal Hill | 19 of 27 | 70% | 12 of 20 | 4 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 17 of 24 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Thiago Santos | 40 of 59 | 67% | 39 of 58 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 17 of 29 | 5 of 6 | 18 of 24 |
Angelo picks Jamahal Hill, citing Thiago Santos's decline in power and speed since his injuries. He notes Hill's excellent striking differential and accuracy, and believes he can outpoint Santos. However, he acknowledges Santos's durability and championship-round experience, leaving some uncertainty if the fight goes deep. He cannot bet on 'survive logic' and sticks with Hill.
Big Brady picks Jamahal Hill, noting his high volume and power compared to Thiago Santos, who has been low-volume and inactive in his recent fights. He acknowledges Santos's power and the fact that Hill is hittable, but believes Hill's pressure and output will overwhelm Santos. He predicts a second or third-round knockout win for Hill, expressing hope that Hill makes it exciting after Santos's recent boring performances.
Cody also picks Hill, citing Santos's decline since the Jones fight and his knee injuries. He notes that Santos has become a shell of himself, with low output and a tendency to wait for counters. Cody believes Hill's length, southpaw stance, and left hand will be key, and that Hill can carry his power into later rounds. He predicts a late stoppage or decision for Hill.
Daniel Levi picks Jamahal Hill, citing his superior output (nearly double Santos's), power, and heart. He notes Hill's ability to fight in the pocket and force Santos to engage, while Santos has declined since knee surgeries and lacks the output to keep up. Levi is concerned about Santos's power and opportunistic hooks but believes Hill's durability and pace will prevail. He parlayed Hill with Oleksiejczuk to win 2 units.
Paul picks Jamahal Hill, noting that Hill is too fast for Thiago Santos. He points out that Santos has been in a decline since his fight with Jon Jones, with knee injuries and poor performances. Paul is concerned about the -315 price but still sees Hill as the rightful favorite. He mentions that Hill's speed and power should be enough to win, possibly by late stoppage or decision.
The MMA Guru picks Jamahal Hill by second-round TKO. He notes Santos's age (38) and lack of leg kicks since injury. He believes Hill's rangy punching and pressure will be effective, and compares to David Branch's KO of Santos. He expects Hill to land a one-two against the cage after a competitive first round.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamahal Hill | 0 | 12 of 25 | 48% | 12 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:22 |
| Johnny Walker | 1 | 6 of 19 | 31% | 7 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jamahal Hill | 0 | 12 of 25 | 48% | 12 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:22 |
| Johnny Walker | 1 | 6 of 19 | 31% | 7 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamahal Hill | 12 of 25 | 48% | 4 of 15 | 3 of 5 | 5 of 5 | 12 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Johnny Walker | 6 of 19 | 31% | 5 of 17 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jamahal Hill | 12 of 25 | 48% | 4 of 15 | 3 of 5 | 5 of 5 | 12 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Johnny Walker | 6 of 19 | 31% | 5 of 17 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Angelo picks Johnny Walker but is hesitant, noting that Walker's last fight against Thiago Santos was too controlled and he lost his identity. He believes Walker needs to return to his unorthodox, high-volume style to win, otherwise Jamahal Hill will piece him up. Angelo thinks the disappointing loss may motivate Walker to revert to his natural style.
Big Brady picks Jamahal Hill, citing his high output, durability, and cardio. He notes Walker's striking defense is poor and his chin is a concern. He believes Walker's only path is to be wild, but Hill can handle it. He predicts Hill wins by second round knockout.
Cody picks Jamahal Hill based on Hill's superior hands and power, noting that Johnny Walker has a questionable chin and has been knocked out quickly in the past. He highlights Hill's sharp jab and right hand, and his legitimate KO victories over durable opponents like Jimmy Crute and Alvin St. Pruitt. Cody also points out that Walker's explosiveness has been diminished since training with John Kavanagh, and that Walker's cardio and takedown defense are poor. He believes Hill can keep the fight standing and eventually clip Walker.
Daniel Levi is confident in Jamahal Hill, citing his volume, body work, and discipline. He notes that Hill has the output of a smaller fighter but at 6'4" with an 80-inch reach, and that his only loss came from overconfidence on the ground, which Walker won't exploit. Levi believes Hill will knock out Walker, likely in the first round, and that Walker hasn't looked the same since the Corey Anderson fight.
Hill is the more active striker and will pressure Walker, who tends to be hesitant. Hill's power and sniping ability should find Walker's chin. Walker has knockout power too, but Hill is the more likely finisher. The under 2.5 rounds is a strong play, as Hill should get the KO early. Hill by KO at -130 and round props are also attractive.
Paul agrees with Cody, emphasizing that the fight comes down to volume and durability. He notes that Walker is a low-volume striker (around 50 significant strikes per fight) while Hill has shown high output, landing over 100 significant strikes in a fight. Paul also mentions that Walker's recent performances have been boring and ineffective, and that Hill hasn't been rocked in his fights. He is confident in Hill but doesn't love the -250 price.
The MMA Guru picks Jamahal Hill to win by first-round KO. He criticizes Johnny Walker's range control and chin, believing Hill's pressure and power will be too much. He predicts Hill will march Walker down, land combinations, and put him away with a left hook as Walker throws a front kick. He notes Hill's confidence and momentum from his last win, and that Walker has a chin problem.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamahal Hill | 0 | 6 of 12 | 50% | 6 of 12 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jimmy Crute | 1 | 4 of 10 | 40% | 4 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jamahal Hill | 0 | 6 of 12 | 50% | 6 of 12 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jimmy Crute | 1 | 4 of 10 | 40% | 4 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamahal Hill | 6 of 12 | 50% | 2 of 7 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Jimmy Crute | 4 of 10 | 40% | 2 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jamahal Hill | 6 of 12 | 50% | 2 of 7 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Jimmy Crute | 4 of 10 | 40% | 2 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
Angelo picks Jimmy Crute, citing his wrestling and takedown accuracy. He notes Hill is a good striker but lacks one-punch KO power, so Crute can eat volume and work takedowns. Angelo likes Crute at 9200 on DraftKings.
Big Brady picks Jimmy Crute to win by submission. He highlights Crute's elite grappling, noting he submitted Paul Craig (who rarely gets submitted) and has a BJJ black belt. He criticizes Jamahal Hill's poor takedown defense, citing how easily Darko Stosic took him down. Brady believes if Crute fights smart and takes Hill down, he will submit him. He also notes Hill's striking defense is suspect (45%) and that Crute's striking is decent, but the path to victory is clearly on the ground.
Cody picks Hill confidently, noting Hill's length, southpaw stance, and power. He thinks Crute's ring IQ is questionable and that Hill will keep the fight standing. Cody believes Hill's striking advantage and ability to avoid takedowns will lead to a win, and that the plus money is good value.
Daniel Levi picks Jamahal Hill to win a decision, citing Hill's high striking output for a light heavyweight, his fluidity, speed, and length. He notes that Crute is hittable and that Hill can piece him up on the feet. He acknowledges Crute's ground game but believes Hill can defend takedowns and get back up if taken down, referencing Hill's get-up game from his debut.
Jacob picks Jimmy Crute, agreeing with Dan that Crute should wrestle and submit Hill. He notes Hill is a good boxer but Crute can take him down easily. Jacob warns that if Crute tries to strike, he will get pieced up.
I lean Crute. He has a huge grappling advantage and should be able to take Hill down. Hill's defensive grappling is suspect, and he was submitted by Paul Craig. Crute has good top game and submission skills. However, I'm not fully confident because Hill is the better striker and could keep it standing. I like Crute by submission at plus 250.
Paul leans towards Hill as an underdog, citing Hill's striking volume and durability. He notes that Crute made a mistake by standing with Anthony Smith instead of wrestling, and that Hill's grappling looked decent against Paul Craig. Paul believes Hill can outwork Crute on the feet and that the plus money is worth taking.
The MMA Guru picks Jimmy Crute to win by first-round kimura. He expects Crute to land leg kicks and feints, then set up a takedown after Hill leans back from a hook. Crute will get side control and eventually isolate the arm for his signature kimura, similar to his win over Paul Craig.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Craig | 0 | 23 of 25 | 92% | 43 of 47 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 3 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Jamahal Hill | 0 | 1 of 8 | 12% | 3 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:53 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paul Craig | 0 | 23 of 25 | 92% | 43 of 47 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 3 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Jamahal Hill | 0 | 1 of 8 | 12% | 3 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:53 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Craig | 23 of 25 | 92% | 18 of 20 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 17 of 18 |
| Jamahal Hill | 1 of 8 | 12% | 0 of 4 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paul Craig | 23 of 25 | 92% | 18 of 20 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 17 of 18 |
| Jamahal Hill | 1 of 8 | 12% | 0 of 4 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Jamahal Hill to win by first-round knockout, citing his massive striking advantage, volume, and cardio. He acknowledges Craig's dangerous submission game but believes Hill's takedown defense and get-up ability will keep the fight standing. He warns against putting Hill in parlays due to the submission threat.
Cody is confident in Hill, noting his striking, reach, and power. He thinks Hill will stuff Craig's takedowns and knock him out, likely inside the distance. He likes the under 1.5 rounds and Hill by knockout. He also mentions Craig's weak chin and the level of competition Craig has faced.
Daniel Levi picks Jamahal Hill to knock out Paul Craig, praising Hill's output and technique. He notes that Hill has a high-volume striking style and has shown good takedown defense. He thinks Craig's chin-up tendency when pressured will be exploited. He believes Hill is a future contender and will make a statement.
Hill has a massive striking advantage with diverse attacks, including a vicious body kick. Craig's only path is to get the fight to the ground, but Hill's takedown defense and submission defense should keep it standing. Hill will land devastating shots and likely knock Craig out in the first or second round.
Paul agrees Hill is a confident pick. He notes Hill's size, southpaw stance, and power, and thinks he will finish Craig inside the distance. He likes the under 1.5 rounds and plans to parlay Hill with Edwards.
The MMA Guru picks Jamahal Hill, calling it an obvious prediction. He criticizes Paul Craig's wins over an aged Shogun Rua and notes Hill's superior striking, takedown defense, and head movement. He predicts a first-round KO via straight shot, citing Hill's reach and youth.
Thiago Santos - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamahal Hill | 0 | 53 of 94 | 56% | 56 of 98 | 6 of 20 | 30% | 0 | 0 | 5:54 |
| Thiago Santos | 0 | 89 of 152 | 58% | 130 of 194 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:26 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jamahal Hill | 0 | 10 of 18 | 55% | 11 of 19 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:23 |
| Thiago Santos | 0 | 9 of 30 | 30% | 18 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jamahal Hill | 0 | 16 of 38 | 42% | 16 of 38 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0:41 |
| Thiago Santos | 0 | 31 of 52 | 59% | 35 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:22 | |
| 3 | Jamahal Hill | 0 | 8 of 11 | 72% | 10 of 14 | 5 of 11 | 45% | 0 | 0 | 3:50 |
| Thiago Santos | 0 | 9 of 11 | 81% | 23 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:33 | |
| 4 | Jamahal Hill | 0 | 19 of 27 | 70% | 19 of 27 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Thiago Santos | 0 | 40 of 59 | 67% | 54 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:31 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamahal Hill | 53 of 94 | 56% | 28 of 66 | 13 of 16 | 12 of 12 | 43 of 82 | 8 of 9 | 2 of 3 |
| Thiago Santos | 89 of 152 | 58% | 68 of 131 | 12 of 12 | 9 of 9 | 52 of 107 | 19 of 21 | 18 of 24 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jamahal Hill | 10 of 18 | 55% | 1 of 8 | 3 of 4 | 6 of 6 | 9 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Thiago Santos | 9 of 30 | 30% | 5 of 26 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 26 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jamahal Hill | 16 of 38 | 42% | 9 of 29 | 5 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 14 of 35 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 1 |
| Thiago Santos | 31 of 52 | 59% | 19 of 40 | 5 of 5 | 7 of 7 | 28 of 48 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jamahal Hill | 8 of 11 | 72% | 6 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 2 |
| Thiago Santos | 9 of 11 | 81% | 5 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 4 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Jamahal Hill | 19 of 27 | 70% | 12 of 20 | 4 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 17 of 24 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Thiago Santos | 40 of 59 | 67% | 39 of 58 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 17 of 29 | 5 of 6 | 18 of 24 |
Angelo picks Jamahal Hill, citing Thiago Santos's decline in power and speed since his injuries. He notes Hill's excellent striking differential and accuracy, and believes he can outpoint Santos. However, he acknowledges Santos's durability and championship-round experience, leaving some uncertainty if the fight goes deep. He cannot bet on 'survive logic' and sticks with Hill.
Big Brady picks Jamahal Hill, noting his high volume and power compared to Thiago Santos, who has been low-volume and inactive in his recent fights. He acknowledges Santos's power and the fact that Hill is hittable, but believes Hill's pressure and output will overwhelm Santos. He predicts a second or third-round knockout win for Hill, expressing hope that Hill makes it exciting after Santos's recent boring performances.
Cody also picks Hill, citing Santos's decline since the Jones fight and his knee injuries. He notes that Santos has become a shell of himself, with low output and a tendency to wait for counters. Cody believes Hill's length, southpaw stance, and left hand will be key, and that Hill can carry his power into later rounds. He predicts a late stoppage or decision for Hill.
Daniel Levi picks Jamahal Hill, citing his superior output (nearly double Santos's), power, and heart. He notes Hill's ability to fight in the pocket and force Santos to engage, while Santos has declined since knee surgeries and lacks the output to keep up. Levi is concerned about Santos's power and opportunistic hooks but believes Hill's durability and pace will prevail. He parlayed Hill with Oleksiejczuk to win 2 units.
Paul picks Jamahal Hill, noting that Hill is too fast for Thiago Santos. He points out that Santos has been in a decline since his fight with Jon Jones, with knee injuries and poor performances. Paul is concerned about the -315 price but still sees Hill as the rightful favorite. He mentions that Hill's speed and power should be enough to win, possibly by late stoppage or decision.
The MMA Guru picks Jamahal Hill by second-round TKO. He notes Santos's age (38) and lack of leg kicks since injury. He believes Hill's rangy punching and pressure will be effective, and compares to David Branch's KO of Santos. He expects Hill to land a one-two against the cage after a competitive first round.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magomed Ankalaev | 1 | 60 of 138 | 43% | 81 of 160 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
| Thiago Santos | 0 | 78 of 155 | 50% | 114 of 191 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:35 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 10 of 21 | 47% | 10 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Thiago Santos | 0 | 8 of 23 | 34% | 8 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Magomed Ankalaev | 1 | 15 of 36 | 41% | 18 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
| Thiago Santos | 0 | 15 of 32 | 46% | 15 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 18 of 30 | 60% | 18 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Thiago Santos | 0 | 19 of 31 | 61% | 19 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 10 of 32 | 31% | 16 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Thiago Santos | 0 | 21 of 48 | 43% | 36 of 63 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:56 | |
| 5 | Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 7 of 19 | 36% | 19 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Thiago Santos | 0 | 15 of 21 | 71% | 36 of 42 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:39 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magomed Ankalaev | 60 of 138 | 43% | 14 of 75 | 16 of 26 | 30 of 37 | 57 of 135 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 |
| Thiago Santos | 78 of 155 | 50% | 33 of 94 | 35 of 51 | 10 of 10 | 64 of 140 | 12 of 13 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Magomed Ankalaev | 10 of 21 | 47% | 0 of 6 | 3 of 6 | 7 of 9 | 10 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Thiago Santos | 8 of 23 | 34% | 3 of 13 | 4 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Magomed Ankalaev | 15 of 36 | 41% | 7 of 22 | 3 of 6 | 5 of 8 | 13 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Thiago Santos | 15 of 32 | 46% | 6 of 18 | 6 of 11 | 3 of 3 | 14 of 31 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Magomed Ankalaev | 18 of 30 | 60% | 2 of 13 | 4 of 4 | 12 of 13 | 18 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Thiago Santos | 19 of 31 | 61% | 7 of 17 | 7 of 9 | 5 of 5 | 18 of 30 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Magomed Ankalaev | 10 of 32 | 31% | 4 of 23 | 4 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Thiago Santos | 21 of 48 | 43% | 13 of 38 | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 45 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | |
| 5 | Magomed Ankalaev | 7 of 19 | 36% | 1 of 11 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 5 | 6 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Thiago Santos | 15 of 21 | 71% | 4 of 8 | 10 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 11 | 9 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Magomed Ankalaev, noting that Thiago Santos has slowed down at 38 and is not the same fighter who knocked out Jan Blachowicz. He believes Ankalaev's forward pressure, heavy kicks, and constant takedown threats will be too much. He expects a one-sided win, though not necessarily a stoppage.
Big Brady picks Magomed Ankalaev to win by decision. He notes Santos is 38, looks washed, has low volume (44 strikes in 25 minutes vs Walker), and has never recovered from his knee injuries after the Jones fight. He thinks Ankalaev is well-rounded, has power, and will outpoint Santos easily over five rounds. He expects the fight to be somewhat uneventful but Ankalaev will dominate. He mentions the line has moved from -330 to -500.
Cody is confident in Ankalaev, citing his pace, cardio, chin, and improved striking. He notes Santos is 38, has declined since knee surgery, and lacks volume. Cody sees Ankalaev as the best at 205 and expects him to win via pressure and volume, possibly a late stoppage. He mentions a parlay with Murzakanov at -106.
Daniel Levi picks Magomed Ankalaev to win, citing Ankalaev's upward trajectory and the emergence of a new era of light heavyweights. He notes that Thiago Santos has had lackluster performances since the Jon Jones fight, with his knees falling apart. Levi expects a chess match early but sees Ankalaev landing a big counter or takedown with ground and pound. He acknowledges Santos's power but believes Ankalaev's counters are sharp and that he will eventually get a title shot.
Ankalaev is seen as the uncrowned champ, with a seven-fight win streak and granite chin. He's a technical striker with high striking defense, and his ability to adjust mid-fight is praised. Santos is past his prime at 38, with ACL surgery and tentative performances. Ankalaev is expected to win via decision, possibly a one-sided chess match.
Paul echoes Cody's view, emphasizing Santos' decline and Ankalaev's advantages in speed, volume, and wrestling. He notes the price is high but believes Ankalaev is the best in the division. He also mentions a parlay with Murzakanov.
The MMA Guru picks Magomed Ankalaev over Thiago Santos, citing Santos' hesitancy and lack of ligaments in his leg. He believes Ankalaev will chop at the legs early, mix in takedowns, and expose Santos' poor ground game as Glover Teixeira did. He expects a late second-round ground-and-pound TKO, noting that Ankalaev's patient counter-striking style works well against Santos. He admits Santos is a decent underdog but says the odds won't sway him, as Ankalaev wins this fight seven or eight times out of ten.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thiago Santos | 0 | 44 of 105 | 41% | 44 of 105 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Johnny Walker | 0 | 48 of 130 | 36% | 48 of 130 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Thiago Santos | 0 | 3 of 13 | 23% | 3 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Johnny Walker | 0 | 9 of 15 | 60% | 9 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Thiago Santos | 0 | 11 of 22 | 50% | 11 of 22 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Johnny Walker | 0 | 10 of 20 | 50% | 10 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Thiago Santos | 0 | 11 of 25 | 44% | 11 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Johnny Walker | 0 | 10 of 25 | 40% | 10 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Thiago Santos | 0 | 9 of 22 | 40% | 9 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Johnny Walker | 0 | 11 of 41 | 26% | 11 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Thiago Santos | 0 | 10 of 23 | 43% | 10 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Johnny Walker | 0 | 8 of 29 | 27% | 8 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thiago Santos | 44 of 105 | 41% | 9 of 40 | 16 of 28 | 19 of 37 | 42 of 103 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Johnny Walker | 48 of 130 | 36% | 7 of 55 | 9 of 20 | 32 of 55 | 46 of 127 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Thiago Santos | 3 of 13 | 23% | 0 of 6 | 1 of 4 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Johnny Walker | 9 of 15 | 60% | 0 of 2 | 1 of 3 | 8 of 10 | 9 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Thiago Santos | 11 of 22 | 50% | 2 of 5 | 6 of 8 | 3 of 9 | 9 of 20 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Johnny Walker | 10 of 20 | 50% | 2 of 6 | 2 of 3 | 6 of 11 | 8 of 17 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Thiago Santos | 11 of 25 | 44% | 2 of 10 | 1 of 4 | 8 of 11 | 11 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Johnny Walker | 10 of 25 | 40% | 2 of 10 | 2 of 6 | 6 of 9 | 10 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Thiago Santos | 9 of 22 | 40% | 2 of 9 | 4 of 6 | 3 of 7 | 9 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Johnny Walker | 11 of 41 | 26% | 1 of 22 | 2 of 3 | 8 of 16 | 11 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Thiago Santos | 10 of 23 | 43% | 3 of 10 | 4 of 6 | 3 of 7 | 10 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Johnny Walker | 8 of 29 | 27% | 2 of 15 | 2 of 5 | 4 of 9 | 8 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Johnny Walker, expecting his forward pressure, craziness, and size to frustrate Thiago Santos, who is a shell of his former self after knee injuries and three straight losses. He notes that Santos has massive power and could knock anyone out, but his cardio suffers and he may be gun-shy. Walker is never afraid to throw and will stay busy. Angelo likes Walker at plus 145 moneyline and in DraftKings at $7,400. He also likes the over on rounds and the more more monkey knife fight pick.
Big Brady picks Thiago Santos to win, citing his experience, better competition, and more paths to victory. He notes Santos has fought Jon Jones, Glover Teixeira, and Rakic, while Walker's best wins are over lesser competition. Walker is very hittable (31% striking defense) and chinny, while Santos hits hard. Santos has better cardio, having gone five rounds with Jones, while Walker fades after the first round. Brady suggests a ground game path for Santos, similar to his win over Kevin Holland. He recommends a violence play rather than the moneyline.
Cody picks Thiago Santos based on superior experience and durability. He notes that Santos has slowed down and his knees are shot, but he still hits hard and can drag the fight into later rounds. He expects Santos to survive Walker's early explosiveness and then pressure him, eventually landing a finish in the second, third, or fourth round. He highlights that Santos outstruck Alexander Rakic in their fight and has better cardio than Walker, who has never gone five rounds.
Daniel Levi picks Johnny Walker as the underdog, citing that both fighters have declined since their surgeries—Santos after ACL surgery and Walker after shoulder injury. He notes Walker's dynamic striking and finishing ability but acknowledges his poor durability and tendency to flop when hit. Levi believes the fight is a coin flip about who lands first, but he leans Walker because of motivation concerns for the nearly 40-year-old Santos with a baby on the way. He expects a knockout either way and takes the underdog.
I think Santos is the more disciplined striker and should be able to counter Walker's wildness. Walker is explosive but hittable and has poor durability. However, I'm concerned about Santos's recent performances and knee surgeries. I like Santos inside the distance at -120 and also like the under 1.5 rounds. I'm picking Santos but not with high confidence.
Paul agrees with Cody, picking Santos but with less confidence. He notes that Walker is dangerous early but has never gone five rounds and his cardio is suspect. He believes Santos's chin holds up better at 205 and that Walker's grappling is not a major concern. He does not have a bet on Santos straight up but suggests looking at live betting after the first round if Santos survives.
The MMA Guru picks Thiago Santos, despite rooting for Johnny Walker. He notes Santos' check hook is his best weapon and Walker leaves himself open when rushing in. Walker has been KO'd in most of his losses by rushing in. Santos has five-round experience and still has power. He predicts Santos will catch Walker with a check hook and finish him by KO.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aleksandar Rakić | 0 | 49 of 97 | 50% | 61 of 109 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Thiago Santos | 0 | 36 of 89 | 40% | 50 of 103 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:32 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aleksandar Rakić | 0 | 15 of 27 | 55% | 15 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Thiago Santos | 0 | 14 of 30 | 46% | 14 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Aleksandar Rakić | 0 | 11 of 31 | 35% | 18 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Thiago Santos | 0 | 15 of 35 | 42% | 24 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:11 | |
| 3 | Aleksandar Rakić | 0 | 23 of 39 | 58% | 28 of 44 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Thiago Santos | 0 | 7 of 24 | 29% | 12 of 29 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:21 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aleksandar Rakić | 49 of 97 | 50% | 10 of 41 | 23 of 33 | 16 of 23 | 35 of 82 | 14 of 15 | 0 of 0 |
| Thiago Santos | 36 of 89 | 40% | 8 of 47 | 13 of 16 | 15 of 26 | 29 of 82 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aleksandar Rakić | 15 of 27 | 55% | 1 of 8 | 8 of 11 | 6 of 8 | 15 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Thiago Santos | 14 of 30 | 46% | 3 of 16 | 3 of 4 | 8 of 10 | 14 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Aleksandar Rakić | 11 of 31 | 35% | 3 of 16 | 6 of 10 | 2 of 5 | 5 of 25 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Thiago Santos | 15 of 35 | 42% | 3 of 17 | 8 of 9 | 4 of 9 | 8 of 28 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Aleksandar Rakić | 23 of 39 | 58% | 6 of 17 | 9 of 12 | 8 of 10 | 15 of 30 | 8 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| Thiago Santos | 7 of 24 | 29% | 2 of 14 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 7 | 7 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Aleksandar Rakić, favoring him on the feet and heavily on the ground. He notes Rakić has been dropped before (by Devin Clark) and is hittable, while Santos has one-shot power. He recommends a ground game plan and predicts a TKO ground-and-pound finish in the second round, but passes on betting.
Daniel picks Aleksandar Rakić to win, citing his well-rounded game, wrestling, and smart game planning. He notes Santos' submission defense issues and believes Rakić can mix in takedowns and possibly finish on the mat or win a decision.
Rakić is younger, stronger, and has a wrestling advantage. Santos is 37 with knee injuries and poor jiu-jitsu off his back. The host expects Rakić to use his kicks and takedowns to control the fight and win by decision.
The MMA Guru picks Aleksandar Rakić over Thiago Santos. He highlights Rakić's dangerous leg kicks and improved grappling, and notes Santos has no ligaments in his legs. He believes Rakić will chop at Santos's legs, inhibit his movement, and win by 30-27 unanimous decision, possibly mixing in takedowns.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Glover Teixeira | 1 | 40 of 64 | 62% | 81 of 109 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:18 |
| Thiago Santos | 0 | 46 of 63 | 73% | 148 of 180 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 2 | 0 | 9:03 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Glover Teixeira | 0 | 15 of 24 | 62% | 40 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Thiago Santos | 0 | 20 of 27 | 74% | 77 of 87 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 4:02 | |
| 2 | Glover Teixeira | 0 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 9 of 14 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Thiago Santos | 0 | 22 of 31 | 70% | 58 of 78 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 4:39 | |
| 3 | Glover Teixeira | 1 | 22 of 33 | 66% | 32 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:14 |
| Thiago Santos | 0 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 13 of 15 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 0:22 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Glover Teixeira | 40 of 64 | 62% | 38 of 58 | 0 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 11 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 29 of 40 |
| Thiago Santos | 46 of 63 | 73% | 46 of 63 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 44 of 58 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Glover Teixeira | 15 of 24 | 62% | 15 of 23 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 8 |
| Thiago Santos | 20 of 27 | 74% | 20 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 19 of 24 | |
| 2 | Glover Teixeira | 3 of 7 | 42% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Thiago Santos | 22 of 31 | 70% | 22 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 21 of 30 | |
| 3 | Glover Teixeira | 22 of 33 | 66% | 22 of 32 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 21 of 31 |
| Thiago Santos | 4 of 5 | 80% | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 |
Big Brady picks Teixeira as an underdog, citing Santos' injury layoff and questionable losses. He thinks Teixeira has more paths to victory, including takedowns and submissions. He notes Teixeira's recent form and improved conditioning.
Daniel Levi leans toward Glover Teixeira as a betting pick, despite acknowledging Thiago Santos should be the favorite. He believes Teixeira's ground game is a huge edge; if he gets Santos down, the fight is likely over via submission. Levi notes that Santos is explosive and powerful on the feet, and Teixeira has been wobbled before, but he thinks Teixeira can take him down and submit him. He calls it a 'dog or pass' situation and picks Teixeira at plus money.
The host is very confident in Glover Teixeira at plus money, citing Thiago Santos coming off a severe ACL injury and a 16-month layoff. He believes Glover's durability, top pressure, and jiu-jitsu will be too much, especially in a five-round fight where Glover can drown Santos. He notes that Santos is not a one-punch knockout artist and that Glover has only been finished once in 3.5 years. He plans to wait for a better line, expecting it to reach +200.
The MMA Guru picks Thiago Santos to win by first-round TKO. He believes Santos is too dangerous in the first round and Teixeira has a habit of getting cracked early. He notes Santos's power and cardio, and that Teixeira cannot afford to take the same shots he took against lesser opponents.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Jones | 0 | 59 of 90 | 65% | 59 of 90 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Thiago Santos | 0 | 43 of 166 | 25% | 43 of 166 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jon Jones | 0 | 7 of 16 | 43% | 7 of 16 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Thiago Santos | 0 | 11 of 26 | 42% | 11 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jon Jones | 0 | 11 of 17 | 64% | 11 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Thiago Santos | 0 | 7 of 42 | 16% | 7 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Jon Jones | 0 | 14 of 19 | 73% | 14 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Thiago Santos | 0 | 6 of 33 | 18% | 6 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Jon Jones | 0 | 11 of 17 | 64% | 11 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Thiago Santos | 0 | 8 of 28 | 28% | 8 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Jon Jones | 0 | 16 of 21 | 76% | 16 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Thiago Santos | 0 | 11 of 37 | 29% | 11 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Jones | 59 of 90 | 65% | 11 of 32 | 16 of 19 | 32 of 39 | 55 of 84 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Thiago Santos | 43 of 166 | 25% | 9 of 92 | 7 of 21 | 27 of 53 | 42 of 159 | 1 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jon Jones | 7 of 16 | 43% | 0 of 4 | 3 of 5 | 4 of 7 | 7 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Thiago Santos | 11 of 26 | 42% | 3 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 13 | 11 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jon Jones | 11 of 17 | 64% | 2 of 7 | 4 of 4 | 5 of 6 | 10 of 15 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Thiago Santos | 7 of 42 | 16% | 1 of 25 | 2 of 6 | 4 of 11 | 6 of 38 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jon Jones | 14 of 19 | 73% | 4 of 7 | 4 of 4 | 6 of 8 | 11 of 15 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Thiago Santos | 6 of 33 | 18% | 1 of 17 | 1 of 6 | 4 of 10 | 6 of 30 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Jon Jones | 11 of 17 | 64% | 2 of 7 | 2 of 3 | 7 of 7 | 11 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Thiago Santos | 8 of 28 | 28% | 0 of 13 | 1 of 5 | 7 of 10 | 8 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Jon Jones | 16 of 21 | 76% | 3 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 10 of 11 | 16 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Thiago Santos | 11 of 37 | 29% | 4 of 25 | 2 of 3 | 5 of 9 | 11 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thiago Santos | 0 | 20 of 53 | 37% | 20 of 53 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Jan Błachowicz | 1 | 52 of 104 | 50% | 52 of 104 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Thiago Santos | 0 | 7 of 27 | 25% | 7 of 27 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 22 of 44 | 50% | 22 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Thiago Santos | 0 | 12 of 23 | 52% | 12 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 13 of 34 | 38% | 13 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Thiago Santos | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jan Błachowicz | 1 | 17 of 26 | 65% | 17 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thiago Santos | 20 of 53 | 37% | 7 of 31 | 6 of 12 | 7 of 10 | 19 of 51 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Jan Błachowicz | 52 of 104 | 50% | 21 of 58 | 5 of 10 | 26 of 36 | 38 of 82 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 21 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Thiago Santos | 7 of 27 | 25% | 3 of 16 | 2 of 7 | 2 of 4 | 6 of 25 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Jan Błachowicz | 22 of 44 | 50% | 4 of 19 | 4 of 7 | 14 of 18 | 21 of 43 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Thiago Santos | 12 of 23 | 52% | 3 of 12 | 4 of 5 | 5 of 6 | 12 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jan Błachowicz | 13 of 34 | 38% | 2 of 16 | 1 of 3 | 10 of 15 | 13 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Thiago Santos | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jan Błachowicz | 17 of 26 | 65% | 15 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 21 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thiago Santos | 0 | 27 of 42 | 64% | 30 of 45 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:25 |
| Jimi Manuwa | 2 | 42 of 74 | 56% | 65 of 97 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:19 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Thiago Santos | 0 | 26 of 36 | 72% | 29 of 39 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:23 |
| Jimi Manuwa | 1 | 33 of 55 | 60% | 55 of 77 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:16 | |
| 2 | Thiago Santos | 0 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 1 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Jimi Manuwa | 1 | 9 of 19 | 47% | 10 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thiago Santos | 27 of 42 | 64% | 15 of 30 | 12 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 20 | 17 of 19 | 2 of 3 |
| Jimi Manuwa | 42 of 74 | 56% | 27 of 58 | 13 of 14 | 2 of 2 | 20 of 45 | 22 of 28 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Thiago Santos | 26 of 36 | 72% | 15 of 25 | 11 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 15 | 17 of 18 | 2 of 3 |
| Jimi Manuwa | 33 of 55 | 60% | 20 of 41 | 11 of 12 | 2 of 2 | 15 of 32 | 18 of 22 | 0 of 1 | |
| 2 | Thiago Santos | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Jimi Manuwa | 9 of 19 | 47% | 7 of 17 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 13 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Expert Picks (6)
Angelo picks Jamahal Hill, citing Thiago Santos's decline in power and speed since his injuries. He notes Hill's excellent striking differential and accuracy, and believes he can outpoint Santos. However, he acknowledges Santos's durability and championship-round experience, leaving some uncertainty if the fight goes deep. He cannot bet on 'survive logic' and sticks with Hill.
Big Brady picks Jamahal Hill, noting his high volume and power compared to Thiago Santos, who has been low-volume and inactive in his recent fights. He acknowledges Santos's power and the fact that Hill is hittable, but believes Hill's pressure and output will overwhelm Santos. He predicts a second or third-round knockout win for Hill, expressing hope that Hill makes it exciting after Santos's recent boring performances.
Cody also picks Hill, citing Santos's decline since the Jones fight and his knee injuries. He notes that Santos has become a shell of himself, with low output and a tendency to wait for counters. Cody believes Hill's length, southpaw stance, and left hand will be key, and that Hill can carry his power into later rounds. He predicts a late stoppage or decision for Hill.
Daniel Levi picks Jamahal Hill, citing his superior output (nearly double Santos's), power, and heart. He notes Hill's ability to fight in the pocket and force Santos to engage, while Santos has declined since knee surgeries and lacks the output to keep up. Levi is concerned about Santos's power and opportunistic hooks but believes Hill's durability and pace will prevail. He parlayed Hill with Oleksiejczuk to win 2 units.
Paul picks Jamahal Hill, noting that Hill is too fast for Thiago Santos. He points out that Santos has been in a decline since his fight with Jon Jones, with knee injuries and poor performances. Paul is concerned about the -315 price but still sees Hill as the rightful favorite. He mentions that Hill's speed and power should be enough to win, possibly by late stoppage or decision.
The MMA Guru picks Jamahal Hill by second-round TKO. He notes Santos's age (38) and lack of leg kicks since injury. He believes Hill's rangy punching and pressure will be effective, and compares to David Branch's KO of Santos. He expects Hill to land a one-two against the cage after a competitive first round.
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