vs
-649 +520

Sam Alvey

10-13-1
UFC on ESPN: Santos vs. Hill · Aug 06, 2022 · Middleweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC on ESPN: Santos vs. Hill Next Fight
Age 31
Height 6' 0"
Reach 74"
Weight 185 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Age 40
Height 6' 2"
Reach 75.0"
Weight 185 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Career Averages - Michał Oleksiejczuk
5.85 SLpM
53.0% Str. Acc.
4.5 SApM
59.0% Str. Def.
1.02 TD Avg
42.0% TD Acc.
52.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Sam Alvey
3.28 SLpM
44.0% Str. Acc.
3.63 SApM
52.0% Str. Def.
0.06 TD Avg
14.0% TD Acc.
82.0% TD Def.
0.1 Sub. Avg
Michał Oleksiejczuk
Moneyline
BetWay -649
KO/TKO
FanDuel -110
Submission
BetRivers +1500
Decision
FanDuel +190
Sam Alvey
Moneyline
DraftKings +520
KO/TKO
BetRivers +1300
Submission
BetRivers +2800
Decision
BetRivers +1150
Michał Oleksiejczuk - Fight History
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · Feb 07, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Michał Oleksiejczuk 0 140 of 221 63% 143 of 225 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:30
Marc-André Barriault 0 77 of 201 38% 79 of 204 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Michał Oleksiejczuk 0 47 of 73 64% 47 of 73 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:08
Marc-André Barriault 0 19 of 54 35% 19 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Michał Oleksiejczuk 0 41 of 68 60% 42 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marc-André Barriault 0 33 of 80 41% 34 of 81 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Michał Oleksiejczuk 0 52 of 80 65% 54 of 83 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:22
Marc-André Barriault 0 25 of 67 37% 26 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Michał Oleksiejczuk 140 of 221 63% 91 of 161 39 of 49 10 of 11 138 of 218 1 of 1 1 of 2
Marc-André Barriault 77 of 201 38% 57 of 178 16 of 19 4 of 4 59 of 173 18 of 28 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Michał Oleksiejczuk 47 of 73 64% 32 of 56 8 of 9 7 of 8 46 of 71 0 of 0 1 of 2
Marc-André Barriault 19 of 54 35% 9 of 44 6 of 6 4 of 4 19 of 54 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Michał Oleksiejczuk 41 of 68 60% 27 of 49 11 of 16 3 of 3 40 of 67 1 of 1 0 of 0
Marc-André Barriault 33 of 80 41% 28 of 74 5 of 6 0 of 0 21 of 60 12 of 20 0 of 0
3 Michał Oleksiejczuk 52 of 80 65% 32 of 56 20 of 24 0 of 0 52 of 80 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marc-André Barriault 25 of 67 37% 20 of 60 5 of 7 0 of 0 19 of 59 6 of 8 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 1, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Michał Oleksiejczuk

Angelo picks Michał Oleksiejczuk, citing his fast hands and power, with 8 knockouts in 9 UFC wins. He notes that Barriault's chin seems to be fading and that Oleksiejczuk hits incredibly hard. He acknowledges Barriault's wrestling could be a problem but thinks Oleksiejczuk's speed and power will prevail. He suggests under 2.5 rounds might be solid.

Under 2.5 rounds might be solid
"I'm going to pick McCall here because I think the chin's kind of fading a little bit on Mark Andre. McCall hits hard as hell."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 1, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Michał Oleksiejczuk

Big Brady picks Michał Oleksiejczuk, citing that Marc-André Barriault's chin has been cracked recently, with three knockout losses in his last four fights. He believes Oleksiejczuk's pressure and power will be too much for Barriault, who has taken a lot of damage. He predicts a first-round finish.

by first round finish
"Mikuel Jose by first round finish."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 4, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Michał Oleksiejczuk

Cody agrees, highlighting Oleksiejczuk's 8 first-round KOs in 9 UFC wins. He notes Barriault's history of being knocked out in the first round and his inability to change his game. Cody expects Oleksiejczuk to win by KO or decision, but is confident in the victory.

"He's either going to knock out Mark Andre Barry in the first round or he's going to win a split decision. But I think he wins in either case."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 5, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Michał Oleksiejczuk

Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Oleksiejczuk is a good athlete who is not shot, while Barriault is past his prime and gets hurt easily. He thinks Oleksiejczuk will put it all on Barriault and likely hurt him early. He mentions that Barriault's only chance is if Oleksiejczuk's cardio fades.

Same odds discussion.
"I'll take a look at Sajak too."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Feb 1, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Michał Oleksiejczuk

Lucrative James picks Michał Oleksiejczuk to win by KO in round one. He believes Barriault's chin is compromised and that Oleksiejczuk's power and early-round danger will be too much. James notes that Barriault's style of walking forward plays into Oleksiejczuk's hands, and he expects a quick finish.

KO in round 1
"My official prediction on this fight is Michelle Alex to KO Mar Andre Bariel in round one."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 3, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Michał Oleksiejczuk

The host picks Oleksiejczuk by knockout, but notes the line is too wide at -350. He believes Oleksiejczuk's power will eventually find Barriault's chin, but warns that Barriault could make it tough if his chin holds up, using clinch work and cardio to wear Oleksiejczuk down. He suggests a live bet on Barriault in later rounds.

plus 285 on Barriault is worth a sprinkle; live betting Barriault in rounds 2-3
"So the prediction is going to be Ole Shuk by knock. I think he eventually lands that big shot and puts Bario away. But in terms of odds, minus 350 is just far too wide to be confident enough on …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 4, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Michał Oleksiejczuk

Paul picks Michał Oleksiejczuk, expecting a first-round knockout. He notes Barriault's recent durability issues and Oleksiejczuk's power, especially since joining Fighting Nerds. Paul believes Oleksiejczuk's improved patience and game planning will lead to an early finish.

"Mikey O knockout round one for me."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2026 (fight day)
Michał Oleksiejczuk

The host picks Michał Oleksiejczuk over Marc-André Barriault. He notes Oleksiejczuk has real power at middleweight and a resurgence since joining Fighting Nerds. He thinks Barriault has been on the receiving end of too many TKO losses. He predicts a first-round TKO.

first round TKO
"I think Michał Oleksiejczuk's dusting him up in round one by TKO."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 5, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Michał Oleksiejczuk

Zane picks Oleksiejczuk because he is not physically washed and has a good multi-level striking attack. He notes that Barriault gets hurt too easily and is vulnerable, as seen in his fight against Shara Bullet. He thinks Oleksiejczuk will hurt Barriault quickly, though if it doesn't work out, it could become a hairy fight.

Oleksiejczuk opened at -225, currently -550; Barriault at +400.
"I think I have to take Michael Oksajuk."
KO R1 3:03 · UFC 319: du Plessis vs. Chimaev · Aug 16, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Gerald Meerschaert 0 3 of 16 18% 3 of 16 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Michał Oleksiejczuk 1 23 of 51 45% 23 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:22
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Gerald Meerschaert 0 3 of 16 18% 3 of 16 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Michał Oleksiejczuk 1 23 of 51 45% 23 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:22
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Gerald Meerschaert 3 of 16 18% 2 of 14 0 of 0 1 of 2 3 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
Michał Oleksiejczuk 23 of 51 45% 18 of 46 5 of 5 0 of 0 11 of 31 0 of 0 12 of 20
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Gerald Meerschaert 3 of 16 18% 2 of 14 0 of 0 1 of 2 3 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
Michał Oleksiejczuk 23 of 51 45% 18 of 46 5 of 5 0 of 0 11 of 31 0 of 0 12 of 20
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Aug 10, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Michał Oleksiejczuk

Angelo notes Oleksiejczuk is a pure striker with power and fast hands, while Meerschaert is a grappler with questionable chin and takedown accuracy. He thinks it's easier for Oleksiejczuk to stay on the feet and land strikes than for Meerschaert to get the fight to the ground. He leans Oleksiejczuk but says he should not be a -225 favorite in such a tricky matchup.

Under no circumstances should he be a minus 225 in a very tricky matchup
"I'm going to lean McCall because I think it's easier for him to stay away from the takedowns while letting his hands fly against a somewhat chinny Gerro Mirard."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 12, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Michał Oleksiejczuk

Big Brady picks Michał Oleksiejczuk to win by first-round knockout. He notes Oleksiejczuk is a phenomenal striker with bodywork, volume, and power, while Meerschaert is at a massive striking disadvantage. However, he acknowledges the grappling danger: Meerschaert has 30 submission wins and Oleksiejczuk has been submitted six times. He thinks Oleksiejczuk can keep the fight standing and knock out Meerschaert, especially if he has improved his takedown defense. He mentions Oleksiejczuk's ability to get back up when taken down.

Oleksiejczuk by KO, round 1
"I think Oluk knocks out Mirart, and I think he does it in round number one."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Michał Oleksiejczuk

The host believes Oleksiejczuk's improvements from training with the fighting nerds will carry over, though it may result in a more measured approach. He expects Oleksiejczuk to wear Meerschaert down with striking and secure a finish in the third round.

finish in the third round
"I think he'll eventually be able to muster up a finish in the third round of this fight as he wears Mirard down with his striking approach"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 13, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Michał Oleksiejczuk

The Guru picks Michał Oleksiejczuk to win by TKO in the first or second round. He believes Oleksiejczuk has improved since joining the Fighting Nerds and has nasty ground and pound and power. The Guru notes that Meerschaert is on borrowed time and doesn't move his head well, making him vulnerable. He also mentions that Oleksiejczuk has good grappling defense and reversals, so he won't be a fish out of water on the ground.

TKO first or second round; Oleksiejczuk finishes Meerschaert
"I'm going with Macaux. ... TKO first or second round."
KO R1 2:49 · UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · Apr 12, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Sedriques Dumas 0 3 of 26 11% 3 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Michał Oleksiejczuk 1 34 of 57 59% 34 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:18
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Sedriques Dumas 0 3 of 26 11% 3 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Michał Oleksiejczuk 1 34 of 57 59% 34 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:18
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Sedriques Dumas 3 of 26 11% 0 of 18 2 of 5 1 of 3 3 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
Michał Oleksiejczuk 34 of 57 59% 27 of 49 7 of 8 0 of 0 13 of 27 0 of 0 21 of 30
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Sedriques Dumas 3 of 26 11% 0 of 18 2 of 5 1 of 3 3 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
Michał Oleksiejczuk 34 of 57 59% 27 of 49 7 of 8 0 of 0 13 of 27 0 of 0 21 of 30
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Apr 16, 2025 (fight day)
Michał Oleksiejczuk

Daniel Levi was happy to see Michał Oleksiejczuk get a first-round stoppage over Sedriques Dumas. He praises Oleksiejczuk for changing his training environment to the Fighting Nerds and showing maturity and measured striking, outstriking Dumas 34 to 3 in under three minutes.

"What I was really happy about was seeing Mllicha go out there and get that first round stoppage over Cedric's Dumas."
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · Aug 03, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Sharabutdin Magomedov 0 97 of 178 54% 123 of 209 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Michał Oleksiejczuk 0 77 of 146 52% 94 of 172 3 of 7 42% 0 0 2:39
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Sharabutdin Magomedov 0 40 of 74 54% 42 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Michał Oleksiejczuk 0 35 of 53 66% 36 of 54 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:08
2 Sharabutdin Magomedov 0 35 of 64 54% 37 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Michał Oleksiejczuk 0 24 of 52 46% 28 of 58 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:44
3 Sharabutdin Magomedov 0 22 of 40 55% 44 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Michał Oleksiejczuk 0 18 of 41 43% 30 of 60 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:47
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Sharabutdin Magomedov 97 of 178 54% 52 of 112 33 of 52 12 of 14 89 of 163 8 of 15 0 of 0
Michał Oleksiejczuk 77 of 146 52% 45 of 103 18 of 27 14 of 16 72 of 138 4 of 6 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Sharabutdin Magomedov 40 of 74 54% 16 of 39 17 of 26 7 of 9 38 of 69 2 of 5 0 of 0
Michał Oleksiejczuk 35 of 53 66% 23 of 38 9 of 11 3 of 4 34 of 50 1 of 3 0 of 0
2 Sharabutdin Magomedov 35 of 64 54% 24 of 48 7 of 12 4 of 4 33 of 60 2 of 4 0 of 0
Michał Oleksiejczuk 24 of 52 46% 12 of 35 5 of 9 7 of 8 22 of 50 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Sharabutdin Magomedov 22 of 40 55% 12 of 25 9 of 14 1 of 1 18 of 34 4 of 6 0 of 0
Michał Oleksiejczuk 18 of 41 43% 10 of 30 4 of 7 4 of 4 16 of 38 1 of 1 1 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 28, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Sharabutdin Magomedov

Angelo picks Magomedov despite concerns about his recent activity and lack of killer instinct. He thinks Magomedov is still very powerful and should be good enough to win, especially as Oleksiejczuk fades late. He notes Magomedov's busy schedule and possible lack of camp, but still expects a win.

Over 1.5 rounds if line available
"Char marov is going to be the pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 1, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Sharabutdin Magomedov

Big Brady is confident in Sharabutdin due to Oleksiejczuk's concerning situation: he is not with a team, training in his garage, talking about retirement, and has been finished quickly in recent fights. He thinks Oleksiejczuk's heart is not in it and he will fold after the first few minutes, predicting a first-round knockout for Sharabutdin.

"I got to go sh here I I'm not sure what's going on with meluk but whatever is going on it's it's super weird"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Sharabutdin Magomedov

Cody picks Sharabutdin Magomedov, noting that Michał Oleksiejczuk has one foot out the door, training in his garage and talking about retirement. He believes Shara is still improving and has more upside, while Oleksiejczuk has stagnated. Cody thinks Shara's cardio and grappling will improve fight to fight, and that Oleksiejczuk's only path is an early knockout. He also mentions Shara is being fed winnable opponents.

"Char is the pick."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jul 31, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Sharabutdin Magomedov

Daniel believes Shara has a superior striking arsenal and will capitalize on Oleksiejczuk's overly aggressive style. He notes that Oleksiejczuk makes bonehead mistakes on the mat and likes to brawl, which plays into Shara's hands. He thinks Shara will blast the body and take advantage of openings, and that the time to fade Shara is not now but against a real grappler.

"give me Shara there to come out here and get the dub"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 1, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Michał Oleksiejczuk

Oleksiejczuk will crowd Magomedov, causing issues for his kicking game. If he reins in his durability, he should land big power and possibly knock out Magomedov in the first two rounds.

knockout in first two rounds
"ol shj has a little bit of a durability issue but if he can Reign it in for this matchup and really keep Mago medov on the back foot he should be able to land that big Power and I …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Sharabutdin Magomedov

Paul picks Sharabutdin Magomedov, citing Oleksiejczuk's poor cardio and submission losses. He notes that Oleksiejczuk has been submitted multiple times and that Shara's striking is good enough to outvolume him. Paul expects Shara to finish late or win a decision, and mentions a potential Shara late finish prop. He also points out that Oleksiejczuk has no cardio and poor grappling.

Shara late finish prop
"I'd be interested in like um Mega mov late prop maybe this squeez into the third round."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Sharabutdin Magomedov

The MMA Guru picks Sharabutdin Magomedov over Michał Oleksiejczuk, citing Magomedov's superior striking and low kicks. He notes Oleksiejczuk's poor mindset, having commented that he will probably lose. He thinks Magomedov's technical outside work will be enough, despite his weak ground game. He mentions Oleksiejczuk's vulnerability to low kicks while moving backwards.

"I'm going to pick Shara magedov to win this fight I think he's better than maau Alex Atri on the feet"
LOSS vs Kevin Holland
Technical Submission (armbar) R1 1:34 · UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · Jun 01, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kevin Holland 0 8 of 17 47% 8 of 17 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:16
Michał Oleksiejczuk 0 8 of 18 44% 9 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:31
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kevin Holland 0 8 of 17 47% 8 of 17 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:16
Michał Oleksiejczuk 0 8 of 18 44% 9 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:31
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kevin Holland 8 of 17 47% 5 of 13 3 of 4 0 of 0 8 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
Michał Oleksiejczuk 8 of 18 44% 5 of 15 3 of 3 0 of 0 6 of 13 0 of 0 2 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kevin Holland 8 of 17 47% 5 of 13 3 of 4 0 of 0 8 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
Michał Oleksiejczuk 8 of 18 44% 5 of 15 3 of 3 0 of 0 6 of 13 0 of 0 2 of 5
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 26, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Angelo picks Kevin Holland despite the short notice, believing his range, accuracy, and experience will overcome Michał Oleksiejczuk's early power. He notes that Holland is the bigger fighter and has a massive advantage on the ground. He is a little worried about Oleksiejczuk's fast hands but is confident Holland will win.

"Kevin Holland is going to be the pick I'm pretty confident in him to get it done"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 31, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Kevin Holland

Big Brady likes Kevin Holland a lot, stating he should not only win but win dominantly by finish (KO or submission). He believes Holland has advantages everywhere and that Oleksiejczuk is a round-one knockout bust if the fight goes to the second. He acknowledges Holland's poor fight IQ but thinks this is a big step down in competition. He expects a finish, possibly in the first round.

Kevin Holland wins inside the distance, finish in first round possible
"I like Holland here and he's not too expensive he's only 9k I think he's live for a finish it could be early as well"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 29, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Cody picks Holland, calling Oleksiejczuk a 'glass cannon' who fades after the first round. He notes Oleksiejczuk's six first-round KOs but argues his wins are over low-level opposition. Cody believes Holland's durability, volume, and pace will be too much, and that Holland's frame at 185 lbs is fine. He suggests Holland is a better value at -280 than Makhachev at -700.

"Oleksiejczuk is a front runner... his game just totally falls apart when the fight extends beyond the first round... Kevin Holland is the pick."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked May 30, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Daniel Vreeland picks Kevin Holland despite being unhappy about it. He argues that Holland doesn't walk into shots on the feet and has survived fights with excellent strikers like Jack Della Maddalena and Michael Venom Page without being knocked out. Vreeland doesn't see Oleksiejczuk as the guy to finally tag Holland, nor does he think Oleksiejczuk can win a decision. He acknowledges Holland fights stupidly but sees no path for Oleksiejczuk.

"I don't see a way that Ola shck gets his hands on him"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 28, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Michał Oleksiejczuk

Daniel fades Holland due to his tendency to fool around and rely on physical gifts. He believes Oleksiejczuk's pressure and durability will break Holland, citing his fights with Krylov and Jacoby. He worries about Holland's neck attacks but sees value in the underdog.

"I'm gonna go on a limb here and actually take the underdog"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked May 30, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Michał Oleksiejczuk

Jeff Fox picks Oleksiejczuk because he has no faith in Kevin Holland fighting smart. He notes Holland has lost two straight and tends to eat shots. Fox points to Oleksiejczuk's knockout of Sam Alvey and his power, believing he can catch Holland. He dismisses Holland's durability against top strikers, saying Oleksiejczuk is the type to land a big shot.

"I don't have any faith in Kevin Holland I'm taking here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 27, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

The host expects Holland to use his length and footwork to keep Oleksiejczuk at range and eventually find a finish. Oleksiejczuk's pressure style may be nullified by Holland's striking and sneaky submission game. However, the host notes that Holland is tough to trust at -260, but if he fights smart, he should win inside the distance.

inside the distance
"I'm going to go Holland and Holland inside the distance."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 29, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Paul picks Holland, noting his incredible chin and durability. He expects Oleksiejczuk to have early success but fade, and Holland to find his groove and finish via submission (club and sub). He mentions Holland's submission skills and Oleksiejczuk's poor cardio. Paul likes Holland by submission at +275.

Holland by submission (+275)
"Holland for all his flaws his chin is incredible... I feel like Oleksiejczuk will have some big time success early and then Holland will find his groove... I kind of see this ending in a club and sub type of …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked May 27, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Michał Oleksiejczuk

The MMA Guru picks Michał Oleksiejczuk, though he is hesitant. He believes Kevin Holland has lost his snap and grit, and that Oleksiejczuk will have a weight advantage at 185. He notes Oleksiejczuk's underrated grappling and ability to outgrapple Holland. He worries about Holland's motivation and thinks Oleksiejczuk has more drive.

"I'm going to go with maau atrick though I think he's got more drive"
LOSS vs Michel Pereira
Technical Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 1:01 · UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · Mar 09, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Michel Pereira 0 11 of 15 73% 11 of 15 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:18
Michał Oleksiejczuk 0 1 of 4 25% 1 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Michel Pereira 0 11 of 15 73% 11 of 15 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:18
Michał Oleksiejczuk 0 1 of 4 25% 1 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Michel Pereira 11 of 15 73% 5 of 9 6 of 6 0 of 0 9 of 13 2 of 2 0 of 0
Michał Oleksiejczuk 1 of 4 25% 0 of 3 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Michel Pereira 11 of 15 73% 5 of 9 6 of 6 0 of 0 9 of 13 2 of 2 0 of 0
Michał Oleksiejczuk 1 of 4 25% 0 of 3 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 3, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Michel Pereira

Angelo picks Michel Pereira, citing his better cardio, power, and grappling. He notes Oleksiejczuk has a great chin but can fade. He has a half-unit bet on Pereira at -130, but keeps it small because Oleksiejczuk could survive early and outpoint him.

Half unit bet on Pereira at -130.
"I still think P wins this fight and I do like the odds at minus 130 I've got a little bit of a bet on that as well half a unit on P here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Michał Oleksiejczuk

Big Brady picks Michał Oleksiejczuk to win by decision. He notes that while Pereira has a BJJ black belt, he doesn't wrestle often and lacks the cardio to grapple for 15 minutes. He expects the fight to stay on the feet, where Oleksiejczuk's forward pressure, body work, and volume will wear down Pereira and win the later rounds.

win by decision
"I'm going to go Mel o to win this fight Win It by decision I think the bodyw work's going to come into play the cardio the volume is all going to come into play"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Michel Pereira

Cody notes that Pereira has matured and now fights more conservatively, using his accuracy and wrestling. He thinks Oleksiejczuk is a reckless brawler with poor takedown defense, and Pereira will counter him and mix in takedowns to win a decision.

"I will go with Pereira"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 4, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Michał Oleksiejczuk

Oleksiejczuk has great durability and forward pressure, marching forward and breaking opponents with his boxing. He has eaten clean shots and continued to push. Pereira is dangerous early with his unorthodox power, but Oleksiejczuk's durability should allow him to weather the early storm. As the fight goes on, Oleksiejczuk will start to catch Pereira, coral him against the cage, and land combinations. I expect Oleksiejczuk to get a finish in the second or third round, possibly by knockout.

Oleksiejczuk by knockout, live betting Oleksiejczuk after first round
"I have to lean with the O shuk side here as I believe that his durability will allow him to kind of just way through the early threat that Pera normally uh implements in his fights and from there I …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Michel Pereira

Paul agrees, highlighting Pereira's improved fight IQ and the fact that he looked great at 185. He thinks Oleksiejczuk's wrestling is exploitable and that Pereira has multiple ways to win.

"Pereira is the pick for me as well"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Michał Oleksiejczuk

The MMA Guru picks Michał Oleksiejczuk, citing concerns about Michel Pereira's finishing ability and cardio. He notes Pereira failed to finish chinny fighters like Andre Fialho and Nico Price, and that Oleksiejczuk is extremely tough and has power. He predicts Oleksiejczuk will pressure Pereira, take him down, and finish with a body shot TKO in round two.

round two body shot TKO
"I'm GNA say round two body shot TKO from maau Alex huk"
Sam Alvey - Fight History
TKO (punches) R1 1:56 · UFC on ESPN: Santos vs. Hill · Aug 06, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Michał Oleksiejczuk 0 3 of 11 27% 3 of 11 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Sam Alvey 2 22 of 37 59% 40 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:57
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Michał Oleksiejczuk 0 3 of 11 27% 3 of 11 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Sam Alvey 2 22 of 37 59% 40 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:57
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Michał Oleksiejczuk 3 of 11 27% 1 of 9 2 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sam Alvey 22 of 37 59% 18 of 33 4 of 4 0 of 0 10 of 19 0 of 1 12 of 17
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Michał Oleksiejczuk 3 of 11 27% 1 of 9 2 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sam Alvey 22 of 37 59% 18 of 33 4 of 4 0 of 0 10 of 19 0 of 1 12 of 17
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 31, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Michał Oleksiejczuk

Angelo picks Michał Oleksiejczuk despite his poor performance against Dustin Jacoby. He highlights Oleksiejczuk's speed and pressure, and notes that Sam Alvey's chin may be fading after getting rocked by Brendan Allen. He believes Oleksiejczuk can stay on the outside and avoid Alvey's wild strikes to win.

"michael's going to be my pick here because even though he looked pretty bad in that fight with dustin jacoby he's still lightning fast and we saw that sam alvey's chin might be fading here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 2, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Michał Oleksiejczuk

Big Brady is very confident in Michał Oleksiejczuk, noting that Sam Alvey is on an eight-fight winless streak and has not won since 2018. He describes Alvey's style as low-volume and predictable, while Oleksiejczuk is a fast starter who throws combinations and attacks the body. He predicts a first-round knockout win for Oleksiejczuk, stating that Alvey's chin is questionable and he expects a statement performance.

first round knockout prediction
"i think ola zach should win this fight and i'm actually going to take all the stage to win by knockout and i'll say he does knock out alvey in the very first round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 3, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Michał Oleksiejczuk

Cody also picks Oleksiejczuk, noting that Alvey's durability is fading and he has been stopped in recent fights. He mentions that Alvey's only chance is a puncher's chance, but his power hasn't been there. Cody believes Oleksiejczuk will swarm Alvey and finish him early, especially if Alvey goes into 'YOLO mode' for his last fight.

Under 1.5 rounds (+140); fight doesn't go to decision (-170)
"Oleksiejczuk gets the job done... I would say the under one and a half rounds... this will be a violent fight."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 3, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Michał Oleksiejczuk

Daniel Levi picks Michał Oleksiejczuk as part of a parlay with Jamahal Hill, citing Sam Alvey's eight-fight winless streak, low output, and declining chin. He expects Oleksiejczuk to walk Alvey down and land big body shots and hooks, likely finishing him in the first round. Levi notes Alvey's counter right hand and guillotine as minor threats but believes Oleksiejczuk's power and pressure will be too much.

Parlayed with Jamahal Hill at -158 to win 2 units; predicts first-round KO
"I think Me Hall's gonna walk this dude down and I think he's gonna come out here land big body shots... knock out Sam Alvey in the first round"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 3, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Michał Oleksiejczuk

Paul picks Oleksiejczuk but is wary of the -700 price. He notes that Alvey is on a long losing streak and has lost durability. Paul is concerned about Oleksiejczuk's weight cut to 185 and wants to see weigh-ins. He suggests props like Oleksiejczuk by decision (+175) or inside the distance (-140).

Oleksiejczuk by decision (+175) or inside the distance (-140); under 1.5 rounds (+140)
"Oleksiejczuk will be the pick... minus 700 is too wide for me... I want to see the cut."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 1, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Michał Oleksiejczuk

The MMA Guru picks Michał Oleksiejczuk by first-round TKO via body shot. He notes Sam Alvey's recent decline, being finished by Brendan Allen and Julian Marquez. He praises Oleksiejczuk's toughness and win over Shamil Gamzatov, and believes Alvey has no answer on the feet or on the ground. He also mentions Oleksiejczuk is only 27 and improving.

first round tko via body shot
"i'm going to go first round tko with her body shot for macaulay alex heychuck against sam alvey"
LOSS vs Brendan Allen
Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 2:10 · UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Strickland · Feb 05, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Brendan Allen 0 24 of 57 42% 24 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Sam Alvey 1 36 of 54 66% 36 of 54 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:44
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Brendan Allen 0 18 of 43 41% 18 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Sam Alvey 0 25 of 37 67% 25 of 37 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:34
2 Brendan Allen 0 6 of 14 42% 6 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sam Alvey 1 11 of 17 64% 11 of 17 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Brendan Allen 24 of 57 42% 20 of 52 2 of 3 2 of 2 24 of 56 0 of 1 0 of 0
Sam Alvey 36 of 54 66% 15 of 32 14 of 15 7 of 7 32 of 47 2 of 3 2 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Brendan Allen 18 of 43 41% 16 of 40 1 of 2 1 of 1 18 of 42 0 of 1 0 of 0
Sam Alvey 25 of 37 67% 11 of 22 10 of 11 4 of 4 23 of 34 2 of 3 0 of 0
2 Brendan Allen 6 of 14 42% 4 of 12 1 of 1 1 of 1 6 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sam Alvey 11 of 17 64% 4 of 10 4 of 4 3 of 3 9 of 13 0 of 0 2 of 4
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Brendan Allen vs. Sam Alvey

Round 1
Due to a late replacement, Alvey (33-16-1, 1 NC; 10-11-1, 1 NC UFC) now finds himself taking on Allen (17-5, 5-2 UFC) in the light heavyweight division. The two men that hail from an area in Wisconsin about a half hour from one another meet in the center of the cage, and referee Chris Tognoni serves as the onlooker. The gloves do not get touched, as Allen would prefer to come out fighting. Allen comes out swinging, and Alvey backs up to the wall. When Allen throws recklessly, Alvey counters him with a quick, clean right hook that shocks Allen. “All-In” shoots in for a takedown, and Alvey sprawls and pushes Allen down to the mat. “Smile’n Sam” tosses Allen away, and he backs away awaiting an advancing Allen. Allen does just that, marching forward to attack, and Alvey is prepared with a counter right hook again. Allen is wary of this strike, and as he pays attention to it, Alvey kicks his lead leg hard. Alvey connects with a one-two, and Allen shakes it off and walks face-first into a sharp punch. Allen does not slow down, kicking up high with a kick. Alvey catches it, sets the leg down and lands a fast one-two again. Allen tries to find a way in, and he reaches out with a jab to the body. As he lets loose with a high body kick, Alvey reaches out with a long left hand across the bow. Alvey’s one-two just misses again, and he lines another up right when Allen takes the forward step to him. Alvey’s range is giving Allen issues, and he again clips Allen with a right. Allen rushes in, gets pushed away and runs forward with a spinning back fist. The strike is blocked by both of Alvey’s arms, and Allen calmly backs away to start hacking at Alvey’s lead leg. Alvey tags Allen once more with a pair of punches, leading Allen to blitz in and pursue a takedown. Allen splits off and rocks Alvey with a right hook. They both throw at the same time, hurting each other, and a follow-up from Allen drops Alvey to a knee against the wall. Alvey gets up, they brawl it out for a few more seconds, and the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Alvey
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 Alvey
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Alvey

Round 2
Allen leads the dance to start off the second round, with a few head kick that are blocked fully. Alvey backs off, and a foot from Allen’s spinning wheel kick grazes his jaw. Alvey blitzes ahead with a surge of punches, and he does this again to give Allen pause. Allen gathers himself and marches Alvey down, and Alvey is there with a heavy leg kick to meet him. “All-In” goes all-in with a body kick, and Alvey takes it like a champ and reaches out with a right. Allen throws up another head kick, and he punches the body and dips back out of the way when Alvey prepares to counter. Alvey charges ahead, and this assault misses the mark. Allen fires off a right to the body and a left to the head, and “Smile’n Sam” is no longer smiling from the strikes.
Alvey falls to his knees in big trouble, and Allen instantly jumps on to take Alvey’s back. Alvey leans towards the fence, only to find that Allen has set up a rear-naked choke without any hooks in. Hooks? “All-In” don't need no stinkin’ hooks. Allen crushes the windpipe with all his might, and Alvey reluctantly surrenders.
The unfortunate winless streak continues for Alvey, who took on a new opponent in a different weight class on a week’s notice.

The Official Result
Brendan Allen def. Sam Alvey R2 2:10 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jan 30, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Brendan Allen

Angelo picks Brendan Allen but with hesitation. He notes Allen is the better athlete and wrestler, but has chin issues and is coming off a knockout loss. Alvey is on a long winless streak but has power and experience. Angelo thinks Allen should wrestle and take it seriously, but calls it a live bet fight if Allen stands and trades. He picks Allen with the assumption he wrestles.

Live bet suggestion: if Allen stands and trades, bet Alvey.
"phil haus is the pick with the assumption that he's going to wrestle and take this a little more seriously"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Brendan Allen

Cody agrees with Paul, noting that Alvey's only path is a knockout. He points out that Allen has better volume and technique, and that Alvey's takedown defense is historically strong but Allen's wrestling may not be good enough to take him down. However, he thinks Allen should win on the feet. He is confident in Allen.

"i am siding with brandon allen"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Feb 3, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Brendan Allen

Daniel Levi leans Brendan Allen but calls it a dog-or-pass situation. He notes Allen is taking the fight on four days' notice, moving up to 205 lbs, and has been knocked out in two of his last three. However, he thinks Allen is the better fighter and should have the tools to beat Alvey, who often does nothing for long stretches. Levi suggests a small bet on Alvey at +325 for those looking for a dog, but his pick is Allen.

small half unit or one unit shot on alvey and hope that he can ko a guy that's out of shape in the wrong way class
"i lean brendan because i just think he's a better fighter but if i were to bed aside it'd be a small half unit or one unit shot on alvey"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 3, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Brendan Allen

Lock of the Night picks Allen, citing the massive skill discrepancy. He notes Allen's improved striking and ability to stay at range, similar to the Soriano fight. He warns that Allen should not chase takedowns excessively to avoid gassing. He likes Allen by decision at +165 and the over 2.5 rounds.

Allen by decision +165, over 2.5 rounds even money
"i do like the island side here... allen via decision at plus one that's plus 165 right now that's kind of where i'm leaning"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Brendan Allen

Paul thinks Allen is the younger, faster, and quicker fighter. He notes that Alvey is on a seven-fight winless streak and hasn't won since 2018. He believes Allen's volume and leg kicks will be key, and that Alvey's only path is a lucky punch. He is confident Allen wins but acknowledges the short notice could affect his gas tank.

"i think brandon allen is the uh younger spryer faster quicker guy he just needs to show up short notice hopefully that doesn't affect the gas tank"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Jan 31, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Brendan Allen

The MMA Guru picks Brendan Allen (Phil Horse) but expresses concern about his chin, calling it 'genetically bad'. He notes Sam Alvey doesn't have the best chin either, and expects Allen to land better shots and get a first-round KO. However, he is hesitant due to Allen's vulnerability to being wobbled.

KO, round 1, underdog odds mentioned (over 2 to 1)
"i'm gonna go fill horse but he's got such a genetically bad chin it's worrying... i'll say phil horse gets a first round ko"
Decision (split) (27–28, 28–27, 28–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Barboza vs. Chikadze · Aug 28, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Wellington Turman 0 68 of 122 55% 114 of 169 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:54
Sam Alvey 0 69 of 119 57% 75 of 126 2 of 9 22% 0 0 2:54
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Wellington Turman 0 8 of 20 40% 42 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:58
Sam Alvey 0 13 of 16 81% 17 of 20 2 of 5 40% 0 0 1:50
2 Wellington Turman 0 26 of 44 59% 32 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Sam Alvey 0 24 of 44 54% 24 of 44 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:54
3 Wellington Turman 0 34 of 58 58% 40 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:48
Sam Alvey 0 32 of 59 54% 34 of 62 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Wellington Turman 68 of 122 55% 55 of 105 9 of 13 4 of 4 58 of 112 10 of 10 0 of 0
Sam Alvey 69 of 119 57% 36 of 77 19 of 27 14 of 15 63 of 113 6 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Wellington Turman 8 of 20 40% 8 of 19 0 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 17 3 of 3 0 of 0
Sam Alvey 13 of 16 81% 4 of 7 5 of 5 4 of 4 10 of 13 3 of 3 0 of 0
2 Wellington Turman 26 of 44 59% 17 of 34 5 of 6 4 of 4 21 of 39 5 of 5 0 of 0
Sam Alvey 24 of 44 54% 12 of 29 5 of 8 7 of 7 24 of 44 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Wellington Turman 34 of 58 58% 30 of 52 4 of 6 0 of 0 32 of 56 2 of 2 0 of 0
Sam Alvey 32 of 59 54% 20 of 41 9 of 14 3 of 4 29 of 56 3 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 25, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Wellington Turman

Angelo picks Turman, citing his BJJ black belt, slick ground game, and clear path to victory via takedowns. He notes training feedback from Dan Cramer that Turman feels good. He acknowledges Alvey's deceptive power but believes Turman will get the submission.

Angelo might bet the under on rounds because he doesn't think it sees a decision.
"wellington's the pick"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 25, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Sam Alvey

Cody picks Alvey as a dog, citing his strong takedown defense and power. He notes that Turman has poor takedown accuracy and tends to lose position on the ground. Cody thinks Alvey's veteran savvy and ability to fight 15 minutes will pay off. He is concerned about Alvey's recent losing streak but believes the style matchup favors him.

"i'm gonna have faith that he is going to get it done so this will be a dog play"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Hesitant picked Aug 25, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Wellington Turman

Jacob picks Turman but is hesitant, noting Turman was knocked out cold two months ago and may be hesitant. He agrees the UFC is feeding Alvey to Turman, but warns Alvey is tough and could win if he eats shots. He stayed away from betting.

"my official pick i guess would be uh would be wellington"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 27, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Sam Alvey

Lock picks Alvey by KO at +300, believing Alvey's power and durability will be too much for Turman. He notes Turman has shown poor durability, getting knocked out by Andrew Sanchez and Bruno Silva. Lock thinks Alvey's takedown defense and clinch strength will keep the fight standing, where he can land a big shot. He expects Alvey to win minutes only by knockout, not decision.

Alvey by KO +300
"sam alvi by ko at plus 300 is absolutely ridiculous as that's probably his best win condition in this fight"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 25, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Sam Alvey

Paul picks Alvey, surprised himself but noting that Turman is the exact type of fighter Alvey can beat. He highlights Alvey's takedown defense and left hand power. Paul thinks Turman's grappling is overrated and that he tires easily. He expects Alvey to win by knockout or decision.

Alvey inside the distance
"i'm considering a bet on sam alvey here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 22, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Sam Alvey

The Guru picks Sam Alvey as an underdog, questioning Wellington Turman's chin after two consecutive KO losses and his quick return. He believes Alvey's toughness, cardio, and grappling awareness will allow him to outlast Turman and win a unanimous decision. The Guru dismisses Turman's grappling threat and expects Alvey to display veteran savvy.

Alvey by unanimous decision
"i'm picking sam alvey to get this one done i'll say by unanimous decision"
LOSS vs Julian Marquez
Technical Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 2:07 · UFC on ABC: Vettori vs. Holland · Apr 10, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Julian Marquez 0 29 of 78 37% 29 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Sam Alvey 1 61 of 100 61% 62 of 101 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:16
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Julian Marquez 0 24 of 54 44% 24 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sam Alvey 0 27 of 52 51% 28 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Julian Marquez 0 5 of 24 20% 5 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Sam Alvey 1 34 of 48 70% 34 of 48 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:16
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Julian Marquez 29 of 78 37% 21 of 64 4 of 8 4 of 6 28 of 77 1 of 1 0 of 0
Sam Alvey 61 of 100 61% 46 of 78 15 of 22 0 of 0 41 of 75 1 of 1 19 of 24
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Julian Marquez 24 of 54 44% 16 of 44 4 of 5 4 of 5 23 of 53 1 of 1 0 of 0
Sam Alvey 27 of 52 51% 19 of 38 8 of 14 0 of 0 26 of 51 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Julian Marquez 5 of 24 20% 5 of 20 0 of 3 0 of 1 5 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sam Alvey 34 of 48 70% 27 of 40 7 of 8 0 of 0 15 of 24 0 of 0 19 of 24
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Apr 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Julian Marquez

Big Brady picks Marquez to win by decision, despite Marquez having a 100% finish rate. He thinks Marquez will pressure and outpoint Alvey, who has not won in a long time and takes a lot of damage. Brady is not confident in the pick and is passing on betting, as he finds the fight potentially boring and the line not appealing. He notes both fighters are durable and the fight likely goes to decision.

"i'm going to take marquez to win by decision which is weird because he has a 100 finish rate"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Julian Marquez

Cody picks Marquez, citing his recovery from ring rust, James Krause's coaching, and Alvey's difficult weight cut to 185. He notes Alvey's low output and lack of offensive wrestling, while Marquez has better timing and power. He expects Marquez to edge it.

Over 2.5 rounds at +100 is favorite play
"i'm hitting this over two and a half at plus one hundred"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Apr 9, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Sam Alvey

Daniel Levi picks Sam Alvey, despite acknowledging that Alvey is a long-term fade and the blueprint to beat him is well-known. He is not sold on Julian Marquez, viewing him as an opportunistic finisher who looked horrendous against Maki Pitolo. Levi thinks the fight could be an ugly middleweight scrap that could go either way, so he goes with Alvey for the first time in years.

"I'm going to actually take alvey for the first time in years"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Apr 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Sam Alvey

The host leans Alvey for the value, noting that Marquez's win over Pitolo was a sloppy fight and that Alvey has decent takedown defense and power. However, he acknowledges that Alvey fights on the back foot and hasn't won in five fights. He picks Alvey by decision, but calls the fight a 'slop fest' and advises against betting it.

"i lean alvey in terms of the value here"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Sam Alvey

Paul leans Alvey, noting his durability and ability to lull opponents into slow fights. He wants to see weigh-ins but thinks Alvey's counter-punching and experience could be factors. He is not confident due to Alvey's losing streak and weight cut.

"it would be dogger pass i would take smile and sam"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Julian Marquez

The MMA Guru picks Julian Marquez by first-round KO, despite calling Marquez 'so bad' and 'sloppy'. He notes Marquez has big power and a great chin, while Sam Alvey is moving down to middleweight after being knocked out previously. He thinks Marquez will lose some grappling exchanges early but then land a big right hand to finish Alvey. He expects Alvey to be 'frowning' after the loss.

first round knockout
"i see a first round ko for julian marquez"
LOSS vs Da Woon Jung
Draw (split) (29–28, 28–29, 28–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje · Oct 24, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Da Woon Jung 1 56 of 126 44% 61 of 133 0 of 3 0% 0 0 2:25
Sam Alvey 0 59 of 166 35% 69 of 177 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Da Woon Jung 0 20 of 42 47% 20 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:16
Sam Alvey 0 22 of 64 34% 27 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Da Woon Jung 0 19 of 49 38% 19 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sam Alvey 0 23 of 60 38% 23 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Da Woon Jung 1 17 of 35 48% 22 of 42 0 of 3 0% 0 0 2:09
Sam Alvey 0 14 of 42 33% 19 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Da Woon Jung 56 of 126 44% 43 of 108 5 of 10 8 of 8 46 of 114 6 of 8 4 of 4
Sam Alvey 59 of 166 35% 38 of 140 3 of 8 18 of 18 56 of 162 2 of 3 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Da Woon Jung 20 of 42 47% 13 of 35 4 of 4 3 of 3 19 of 41 1 of 1 0 of 0
Sam Alvey 22 of 64 34% 14 of 53 1 of 4 7 of 7 21 of 63 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Da Woon Jung 19 of 49 38% 13 of 39 1 of 5 5 of 5 19 of 49 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sam Alvey 23 of 60 38% 14 of 50 2 of 3 7 of 7 23 of 60 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Da Woon Jung 17 of 35 48% 17 of 34 0 of 1 0 of 0 8 of 24 5 of 7 4 of 4
Sam Alvey 14 of 42 33% 10 of 37 0 of 1 4 of 4 12 of 39 1 of 2 1 of 1
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 20, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Da Woon Jung

Big Brady is confident in Da Woon Jung, citing his high output (6.59 significant strikes per minute) compared to Alvey's low volume. He notes Jung's good chin and cardio, and struggles to see a path to victory for Alvey. He predicts a first-round knockout, though he acknowledges a decision is possible.

first round knockout
"give me dongjong i'm going to predict a give me a first round knockout"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Da Woon Jung

Daniel Levi picks Da Woon Jung, citing his durability, discipline, and jab. He notes that Alvey is on the decline and has been figured out, with his only recent knockout being against a low-level opponent. Levi believes Jung will stay technical, pick Alvey apart with the jab, and avoid the counter right hook, likely winning by early knockout.

Jung opened -600 and has been bet down to -330; Alvey's chin isn't the same at 205; Jung will win early, possibly first round
"i'm going with dawun jung to get the biggest win of his career"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Oct 19, 2020 (5 days before fight)
Da Woon Jung

The host leans toward Da Woon Jung, noting that Jung is younger, more aggressive, and has better output. He questions Sam Alvey's durability and recent form, but is not confident enough to bet the moneyline at -370. He suggests Jung by knockout as a prop.

Jung by knockout, over 1.5 rounds
"i'll probably lean with jung here as a prediction uh in terms of betting yeah i'm not i'm not parlaying him"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 16, 2020 (8 days before fight)
Da Woon Jung

The MMA Guru picks Da Woon Jung to win by first-round TKO. He notes that Jung is more technical and controlled than Ryan Spann (who struggled with Alvey), sets up shots with feints, and is coming off a KO win over Mike Rodriguez. He criticizes Alvey for losing too many times and being 34 years old.

first round TKO
"i'm gonna go with doubt on you and getting it done i reckon you'll tko sam alvey"
LOSS vs Ryan Spann
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · May 09, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ryan Spann 0 51 of 115 44% 52 of 116 2 of 7 28% 1 0 3:01
Sam Alvey 0 57 of 108 52% 103 of 156 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:29
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ryan Spann 0 9 of 27 33% 9 of 27 2 of 4 50% 1 0 2:01
Sam Alvey 0 17 of 25 68% 57 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Ryan Spann 0 22 of 39 56% 23 of 40 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:28
Sam Alvey 0 15 of 39 38% 17 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Ryan Spann 0 20 of 49 40% 20 of 49 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:32
Sam Alvey 0 25 of 44 56% 29 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:29
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ryan Spann 51 of 115 44% 41 of 102 10 of 13 0 of 0 48 of 109 3 of 6 0 of 0
Sam Alvey 57 of 108 52% 40 of 90 3 of 3 14 of 15 46 of 94 11 of 14 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ryan Spann 9 of 27 33% 7 of 25 2 of 2 0 of 0 8 of 24 1 of 3 0 of 0
Sam Alvey 17 of 25 68% 10 of 18 2 of 2 5 of 5 13 of 20 4 of 5 0 of 0
2 Ryan Spann 22 of 39 56% 18 of 32 4 of 7 0 of 0 22 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sam Alvey 15 of 39 38% 9 of 32 0 of 0 6 of 7 14 of 37 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 Ryan Spann 20 of 49 40% 16 of 45 4 of 4 0 of 0 18 of 46 2 of 3 0 of 0
Sam Alvey 25 of 44 56% 21 of 40 1 of 1 3 of 3 19 of 37 6 of 7 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Ryan Spann vs. Sam Alvey

Round 1
Welcome back, everyone. It’s been a rough few months, and the last 24 hours have been especially rocky, but fights are officially back on the menu. We begin this 11-fight odyssey in the light heavyweight division, as rising Fortis MMA star Spann (17-5, 3-0 UFC) takes on the effervescent Alvey (33-13, 1 NC; 10-8 UFC). An unmasked Dan Miragliotta draws the first referee assignment of the evening, and with a touch of gloves, it’s on with the show! Spann begins to walk Alvey down, and starts out with a right hand and then another thudding right before ducking into a double. Snatching up the legs, Spann drags his man down; Alvey gets back to his feet and works a few hammerfists to irritate Spann. Switching to a single, Spann drops low and hits it, and Alvey flirts with grabbing the fence while he is trying to get back up. As Alvey returns to his feet, Spann sets up a standing arm-triangle choke, allowing Alvey to pepper him with a few short right hands to the torso. Spann tightens up and tries to wrench Alvey down, but Alvey resists and he does not look to be in a good position. Alvey’s head is starting to change colors, and he looks distressed but does not seem to want to fight it off. Spann looks to rip him down to the canvas, and Alvey calmly pops his head out and punches his way free. “Superman” keeps Alvey against the fence, and Alvey scores with a right hand to back off his opponent. He lands another, and Spann backpedals for a moment, before returning to the pressure. Alvey wings a few punches, and Spann throws so hard that he stumbles across the cage before regaining his composure. An inadvertent low kick catches Spann on the cup, and the action does not slow for long. Spann makes him pay for it with a heavy right hand, and Alvey shakes it off before returning fire with a right hook. The Fortis MMA fighter again throws himself off balance with a looping punch, allowing Alvey to kick his legs and send him off-balance. Spann drops down for a single, and takes a knee on the way in. Right before the round ends, Alvey sneaks in a knee and a solid elbow up top, and the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Spann
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Spann
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Spann

Round 2
Between rounds, Spann seems concerned that is taking damage from a few of Alvey’s low calf kicks. To return some damage, Spann fires a head kick up top to start the round. It delivers a serious impact even though Alvey blocks it, but Spann uses the forward movement to go after a takedown. Alvey stands him up and they clinch and break apart, allowing Alvey to catch him with a solid left hand on the way out. Spann starts to talk to his corner as the fight progresses, and Alvey continues to pepper that lead calf with kicks that continue to get Spann’s attention. Spann’s looping punches are not catching Alvey flush, and Alvey’s counters fall short. The two swing heavy leather as they crash together, and Alvey appears to get the better of the exchange as they separate. Alvey keeps his back close to the fence, but times a stiff left hand and follows it with a right hook to nail “Superman” on the chin. Spann walks through it, and throws a heavy body kick that makes Alvey circle away. Sensing the success of that kick, Spann throws a few more, and scores a hard right while Alvey tries to defend that kick. Another low kick scores for Alvey, frustrating Spann to throw all he has into a short right hook that falls shy of the mark, and Alvey dances away. Spann tags him with an overhand left after a front kick, but Alvey is unfazed. Spann charges forward to land another few punches, ending the combination with a vicious left hook. The punches for Spann are finding their mark repeatedly, although his wildness is making him fall across the cage as Alvey avoids most of the damage. “Smile’n Sam” tries to throw a spinning wheel kick of sorts, but he is several feet away, so Spann simply stands there to admire the attempt as the round comes to a close.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Spann
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Spann
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Alvey

Round 3
The final frame begins with Spann walking forward into a clinch. Alvey tries to tie him up with a Thai clinch, although Spann breaks free and clips him on the way out. Another body kick scores for Spann, and Alvey is protesting something but it is unclear what he is concerned about. The action does not stop, so Spann walks forward as he continues to talk to his coaches. Coming short with a few long punches, Spann misses but Alvey does not make him pay for it. They start taking turns throwing at each other. Suddenly, Spann whips a high kick and cracks Alvey, and Alvey is rocked. They start swinging with reckless abandon, and the chin of Alvey holds up as he shakes out the cobwebs. After trading furious leather, they separate, allowing Spann to connect with a few more body kicks. Alvey lands a few solid lefts, but Spann throws back harder and more often, blasting Alvey on the jaw. Despite the powerful shots, “Smile’n” keeps going, and Spann looks to be a little tired now. The punches and kicks for Spann are much slower than before, allowing Alvey to stick and move. Alvey goes up with his own head kick, and Spann did not like that. A huge shot from Alvey hurts Spann, and Spann shoots for a desperation takedown. Alvey catches him and sets up a 10-finger guillotine choke, but Spann muscles his way back to his feet. Alvey clips Spann again, and again, with nasty left hands as Spann is in a bad way. Spann falls against the cage, and Alvey pours it on in the waning seconds. The Team Quest fighter puts everything he has left to force a stoppage, but time expires before he can get it. What a wild end to that round, and the first fight is now in the hands of the judges. Although the post-fight interview for Joe Rogan was reportedly off the table for this event, the winner of this fight still gets one from a maskless, gloveless Rogan.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Alvey (29-28 Spann)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Alvey (29-28 Spann)
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Alvey (29-28 Alvey)

The Official Result
Ryan Spann def. Sam Alvey via Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2020 (9 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

Big Brady picks Ryan Spann to dominate Sam Alvey, expecting a clear decision victory. He notes Spann's reach advantage and submission threat, but believes Alvey's chin will hold up, preventing a knockout. He mentions Spann is a minus 380 favorite and suggests using him in parlays.

Spann by decision; Spann minus 380; parlay suggestion
"I think Span's going to dominate. Um I think he is going to dominate and win this fight, but I just think Alvie's chin is going to hold up."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 5, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

Daniel Levi picks Ryan Spann, stating he has too much physically for Alvey and is the rightful favorite. He notes Spann's improvement, nasty guillotine, and physical tools (6'5", 82-inch reach). Levi thinks Alvey hasn't evolved and is deteriorating, and that Spann should capitalize on Alvey's declining chin.

"I think he's got too much for Sam in terms of the physical Department I think the line might be a little wide but I am going with Ryan span here to get a fourth win in a row"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked May 6, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

Matt thinks the line at -380 is too wide and prefers a closer price around -250. He notes Spann's potential and crisp 1-2 but worries about his gas tank and Sam Alvey's durability and possible progression. He sees the under 2.5 rounds as the best bet and only includes Spann in a Hail Mary parlay.

under 2.5 rounds (-155), fight doesn't go to decision (-195), Hail Mary parlay piece
"I like Spanier not confident enough to make him like a main bet maybe a parlay piece like a Hail Mary parlay piece"
LOSS vs Klidson Abreu
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: dos Anjos vs. Edwards · Jul 20, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Klidson Abreu 0 28 of 77 36% 67 of 117 0 of 1 0% 0 1 2:33
Sam Alvey 0 36 of 89 40% 61 of 115 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:52
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Klidson Abreu 0 6 of 21 28% 18 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:47
Sam Alvey 0 13 of 25 52% 27 of 39 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:22
2 Klidson Abreu 0 10 of 25 40% 22 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:13
Sam Alvey 0 9 of 18 50% 17 of 27 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:30
3 Klidson Abreu 0 12 of 31 38% 27 of 46 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:33
Sam Alvey 0 14 of 46 30% 17 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Klidson Abreu 28 of 77 36% 12 of 53 5 of 12 11 of 12 21 of 69 4 of 4 3 of 4
Sam Alvey 36 of 89 40% 17 of 60 4 of 13 15 of 16 35 of 85 1 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Klidson Abreu 6 of 21 28% 2 of 16 0 of 0 4 of 5 5 of 20 1 of 1 0 of 0
Sam Alvey 13 of 25 52% 7 of 16 4 of 6 2 of 3 12 of 24 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Klidson Abreu 10 of 25 40% 4 of 18 3 of 4 3 of 3 6 of 20 1 of 1 3 of 4
Sam Alvey 9 of 18 50% 4 of 11 0 of 2 5 of 5 9 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Klidson Abreu 12 of 31 38% 6 of 19 2 of 8 4 of 4 10 of 29 2 of 2 0 of 0
Sam Alvey 14 of 46 30% 6 of 33 0 of 5 8 of 8 14 of 43 0 of 3 0 of 0
LOSS vs Jimmy Crute
TKO (punches) R1 2:49 · UFC 234: Adesanya vs. Silva · Feb 10, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jimmy Crute 1 14 of 32 43% 17 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Sam Alvey 0 3 of 14 21% 3 of 14 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jimmy Crute 1 14 of 32 43% 17 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Sam Alvey 0 3 of 14 21% 3 of 14 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jimmy Crute 14 of 32 43% 7 of 23 2 of 3 5 of 6 9 of 23 0 of 0 5 of 9
Sam Alvey 3 of 14 21% 3 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jimmy Crute 14 of 32 43% 7 of 23 2 of 3 5 of 6 9 of 23 0 of 0 5 of 9
Sam Alvey 3 of 14 21% 3 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
Expert Picks (6)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 31, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Michał Oleksiejczuk

Angelo picks Michał Oleksiejczuk despite his poor performance against Dustin Jacoby. He highlights Oleksiejczuk's speed and pressure, and notes that Sam Alvey's chin may be fading after getting rocked by Brendan Allen. He believes Oleksiejczuk can stay on the outside and avoid Alvey's wild strikes to win.

"michael's going to be my pick here because even though he looked pretty bad in that fight with dustin jacoby he's still lightning fast and we saw that sam alvey's chin might be fading here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 2, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Michał Oleksiejczuk

Big Brady is very confident in Michał Oleksiejczuk, noting that Sam Alvey is on an eight-fight winless streak and has not won since 2018. He describes Alvey's style as low-volume and predictable, while Oleksiejczuk is a fast starter who throws combinations and attacks the body. He predicts a first-round knockout win for Oleksiejczuk, stating that Alvey's chin is questionable and he expects a statement performance.

first round knockout prediction
"i think ola zach should win this fight and i'm actually going to take all the stage to win by knockout and i'll say he does knock out alvey in the very first round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 3, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Michał Oleksiejczuk

Cody also picks Oleksiejczuk, noting that Alvey's durability is fading and he has been stopped in recent fights. He mentions that Alvey's only chance is a puncher's chance, but his power hasn't been there. Cody believes Oleksiejczuk will swarm Alvey and finish him early, especially if Alvey goes into 'YOLO mode' for his last fight.

Under 1.5 rounds (+140); fight doesn't go to decision (-170)
"Oleksiejczuk gets the job done... I would say the under one and a half rounds... this will be a violent fight."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 3, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Michał Oleksiejczuk

Daniel Levi picks Michał Oleksiejczuk as part of a parlay with Jamahal Hill, citing Sam Alvey's eight-fight winless streak, low output, and declining chin. He expects Oleksiejczuk to walk Alvey down and land big body shots and hooks, likely finishing him in the first round. Levi notes Alvey's counter right hand and guillotine as minor threats but believes Oleksiejczuk's power and pressure will be too much.

Parlayed with Jamahal Hill at -158 to win 2 units; predicts first-round KO
"I think Me Hall's gonna walk this dude down and I think he's gonna come out here land big body shots... knock out Sam Alvey in the first round"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 3, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Michał Oleksiejczuk

Paul picks Oleksiejczuk but is wary of the -700 price. He notes that Alvey is on a long losing streak and has lost durability. Paul is concerned about Oleksiejczuk's weight cut to 185 and wants to see weigh-ins. He suggests props like Oleksiejczuk by decision (+175) or inside the distance (-140).

Oleksiejczuk by decision (+175) or inside the distance (-140); under 1.5 rounds (+140)
"Oleksiejczuk will be the pick... minus 700 is too wide for me... I want to see the cut."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 1, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Michał Oleksiejczuk

The MMA Guru picks Michał Oleksiejczuk by first-round TKO via body shot. He notes Sam Alvey's recent decline, being finished by Brendan Allen and Julian Marquez. He praises Oleksiejczuk's toughness and win over Shamil Gamzatov, and believes Alvey has no answer on the feet or on the ground. He also mentions Oleksiejczuk is only 27 and improving.

first round tko via body shot
"i'm going to go first round tko with her body shot for macaulay alex heychuck against sam alvey"