UFC on ESPN: Santos vs. Hill · Aug 06, 2022 · Lightweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC on ESPN: Santos vs. Hill Next Fight
Age 31
Height 5' 10"
Reach 73.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Switch
Age 34
Height 5' 11"
Reach 75.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Terrance McKinney
6.53 SLpM
55.0% Str. Acc.
3.45 SApM
43.0% Str. Def.
3.31 TD Avg
40.0% TD Acc.
72.0% TD Def.
2.1 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Erick Gonzalez
2.4 SLpM
36.0% Str. Acc.
8.08 SApM
40.0% Str. Def.
6.0 TD Avg
55.0% TD Acc.
50.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Terrance McKinney
Moneyline
BetRivers -835
KO/TKO
BetRivers +125
Submission
FanDuel +160
Decision
FanDuel +650
Erick Gonzalez
Moneyline
DraftKings +650
KO/TKO
FanDuel +1300
Submission
BetRivers +4000
Decision
FanDuel +1600
Terrance McKinney - Fight History
SCHED vs King Green
UFC 329 · Jul 11, 2026
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

AJ picks Terrance McKinney to win by knockout in the first round. He expects McKinney to blitz King Green early, noting Green keeps his hands down. He suggests McKinney wins under half a round by KO as a live prop.

McKinney by KO in round 1 plus 220, McKinney wins under half a round by KO
"T-Rex Terrence McKini by knockout in round number one at plus 220... I feel like he's going to blitz green."
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Terrance McKinney

AJ thinks McKinney will win by first-round blitz, typical of his style. He notes that if McKinney wins, it's almost certainly round one, and the fight is expected to end in round one. He suggests betting McKinney round one and having a live bet option for later rounds. He also mentions King Green decision at +1300 as a meme bet.

McKinney round 1 KO +240; McKinney round 1 submission +400; McKinney round 1 win +105; fight ends in round 1 -275; King Green by decision +1300; fight to start round 2 +210
"If you got Terrence McKini, it's got to be an assumption of a McKini round one. McKini first round blitz. Typical McKini style."
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked Jul 7, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

AJ picks McKinney to win by first-round blitz, citing Green's hands-down defense as a major vulnerability against McKinney's explosive start. He believes McKinney's speed and power will catch Green early, and that Green's durability is questionable. AJ notes that if Green survives the initial storm, he could win, but he favors McKinney's early finish.

McKinney first round at +110; McKinney under half a round at +240; McKinney by KO at +175
"I think we're about to see a Terrence McKini special. And I'm going McKenna first round blitz."
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked Jul 1, 2026 (10 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

AJ picks Terrance McKinney, citing Green's three-win streak as weak (decisions over Lance Gibson, Zahuber, and a washed Jeremy Stephens). He worries about Green's low hands and McKinney's blitz, and believes if Green survives the first minute, he becomes a live betting spot. He also notes Green should be the favorite or even odds but is plus 120.

Green plus 120 underdog; if Green survives first minute, live betting spot on Green
"Green's three-win streak is dog [ __ ] if you break it down realistically. Braden, this is why I picked Terrance McKinney."
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert picked Jul 7, 2026 (4 days before fight)

AJ is on the fence about this fight, calling it a 50/50. He notes Green is fun to watch but McKinney's quick slime out is live. He mentions the under 1.5 rounds at minus 360 but does not commit to a winner.

under 1.5 rounds minus 360
"You're on the fence with Terrence Green. You should be on the fence because it's tough."
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked Jun 29, 2026 (12 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

AJ picks Terrance McKinney by first-round finish, citing McKinney's explosive blitzing style and King Green's low-hand defense. He believes McKinney's early onslaught will overwhelm Green, who is nearly 40 and has been knocked out before. He notes that if Green survives the first three minutes, he likely wins, but expects McKinney to land a knockout or submission early.

first round finish, under half a round
"I'm going Terrence McKini first round blitz into either a knockout or a submission."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jul 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

Angelo picks McKinney due to his early danger and tools, but has low confidence because of respect for King Green's experience and durability. He notes McKinney has never seen a third round and tends to gas. He thinks McKinney wins early or loses.

"I got to go with Terence McKini. I think Terence McKini gets it done."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

Angelo picks Terrance McKinney because he is more talented, faster, and hits harder. He acknowledges King Green is the better fighter in terms of experience and high-level competition, but believes McKinney's raw talent and athleticism will overwhelm Green early. He expects the fight not to last long and thinks the odds should be closer.

"I have to go with Terence McKini though. Like King Green has looked great his last couple of fights. The win over that absolute fraud was spectacular. He showed his fight IQ in the win over Jeremy Stevens."
BI
Big Brady Expert picked Jul 7, 2026 (4 days before fight)

Big Brady picks the under 1.5 rounds, noting that all 13 of Terrance McKinney's UFC fights have gone under 1.5 rounds. He highlights McKinney's extreme first-round finishing ability but poor cardio, leading to a likely early finish either by McKinney or King Green. He suggests McKinney wins under 0.5 rounds if he wins, but does not pick a side on the moneyline.

Under 1.5 rounds; McKinney under 0.5 rounds (+300); King Green round one
"Give me the under one and a half in Terrence McKenna, King Green... All 13 have went under one and a half rounds."
BI
Big Brady Expert picked Jul 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)

Big Brady does not pick a winner but bets on the under 0.5 rounds at +200 for 1 unit, citing McKinney's 13-13 record under 1.5 rounds and his tendency to either finish early or get finished. He also includes the under 1.5 rounds in a parlay. He does not explicitly pick a fighter to win, focusing on the round total.

Under 0.5 rounds (+200, 1 unit); under 1.5 rounds (parlayed); mentions McKinney's early finish or crumble pattern
"McKenna in the first two and a half minutes or Green at any point. Eileen McKenna to get that early finish. ... under 0.5 rounds, under two and a half minutes, one unit at plus 200."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 27, 2026 (14 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

Big Brady picks Terrance McKinney to win by first-round knockout. He likes McKinney's forward pressure and power, and criticizes King Green's hands-down style, which has led to knockouts before. He notes McKinney's cardio issues but believes he will finish within the first two and a half minutes. He thinks Green's recent wins are over lower-level competition.

McKenna by first round KO
"I'm going McKenna here. I'm going to go with McKenna by by round one knockout."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 30, 2026 (11 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

Big Brady is confident McKinney wins by early knockout, likely in the first minute or two. He notes Green's hands-down style is dangerous against McKinney's pressure. He points out that McKinney has never won a fight lasting more than 2.5 minutes in the UFC, and if he doesn't finish early, he often gets finished himself. He plans to bet the under if the price is right, expecting people to bet the over as a 'sick fetish'.

McKinney under 1.5 rounds; fight doesn't start round 2; McKinney by sub under 1.5 same game parlay; Green by sub possible
"I actually think McKenna knocks out Green early. Very early. ... I think McKenna is going to knock him out in the first minute or two."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
King Green

Cody picks Bobby Green, emphasizing McKinney's lack of heart and durability. He believes Green's experience, power, and submission game will be key. He notes Green's ability to survive the initial onslaught and then take over.

Green by submission at plus money; under 1.5 rounds
"I am taking Bobby Green to either take the initial onslaught ... or ... time him stepping in and touch him."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 30, 2026 (11 days before fight)
King Green

Daniel Levi picks Bobby Green to weather the storm and finish Terrance McKinney, despite Green's age (39). He compares the matchup to McKinney's fight with Eshmael Bonfam, where Bonfam was boxing McKinney up before getting caught. Levi acknowledges McKinney's kill-or-be-killed style and notes that both fighters could win inside the distance, but he has a soft spot for Green and expects him to find a finish.

Bobby Green inside the distance
"I'm going to go Bobby Green to weather the storm and finish Terence McKinn."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
King Green

Jacob picks King Green because he believes McKinney is not that good and can be overwhelmed early. He notes that Green has wrestling of his own and knows how to weather the storm. He thinks Green is a better fighter and if he survives the early onslaught, he will win. He also mentions that McKinney has no cardio and no chin, and that Green is a precise counter boxer.

"I just don't think Terencece McKini is that good. Like he can overwhelm people early. Obviously, he can throw strikes, but he's not like super tactical."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Jul 4, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

Lucrative James leans toward Terrance McKinney via KO, calling the fight a coin flip due to McKinney's explosive but inconsistent style. He believes McKinney's athleticism and speed will overwhelm an aging Bobby Green, whose chin is fading. He suggests betting on under 1.5 rounds or specific round-one finishes rather than the moneyline.

Under 1.5 rounds, Terrance McKinney KO round 1, Bobby Green KO round 1 (longshot)
"Terrence McKini via knockout is my official prediction."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

The host loves playing McKinney under 1.5 rounds because they always hit. He expects McKinney's speed, explosivity, and power to find the chin of Green early, resulting in a round one knockout.

under 1.5 rounds; round one knockout
"I think it's going to be a speed, explosivity, and power early that ends up finding the chin of Green and winning this fight for McKinney by round one knockout."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 4, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

The host picks McKinney by first-round knockout, citing his power and the fact that all his UFC fights have ended under 1.5 rounds. He recommends betting the under 1.5 rounds regardless of the price, as McKinney's volatility makes the moneyline risky.

McKinney by round 1 knockout, under 1.5 rounds
"I am going to go with McKenna and McKenna by round one knockout."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
King Green

Paul picks Bobby Green at plus money, viewing it as a coin flip. He notes McKinney's wild style and tendency to fade, while Green has power and submission threats. He also plans to bet under 1.5 rounds.

Under 1.5 rounds; Green by submission at plus 600-800
"Bobby Green plus 110 cuz it really feels like a coin flip and you're giving me plus money on a coin flip."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

The MMA Guru picks Terrance McKinney to win by KO in the first round. He notes McKinney's speed and power, and criticizes Bobby Green's hands-down defense. He thinks McKinney will be too dangerous early and will chin Green. He also mentions a personal anecdote about McKinney's strength.

first round KO
"I think McKini is going to get a first round KO here over Bobby Green. ... KO finish from Terrence McKinn."
WIN vs Kyle Nelson
KO R1 0:24 · UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · Mar 28, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Terrance McKinney 0 13 of 27 48% 15 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
Kyle Nelson 0 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Terrance McKinney 0 13 of 27 48% 15 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
Kyle Nelson 0 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Terrance McKinney 13 of 27 48% 12 of 26 1 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 5 0 of 0 8 of 22
Kyle Nelson 1 of 3 33% 0 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Terrance McKinney 13 of 27 48% 12 of 26 1 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 5 0 of 0 8 of 22
Kyle Nelson 1 of 3 33% 0 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Terrance McKinney vs. Kyle Nelson
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: McKinney (-170); Nelson (+140)

Round 1
If Sherdog still ran the annual All-Violence Team, “T.Wrecks” McKinney (17-8, 7-5 UFC) would likely be a lifetime member, as he has never gone the distance as a pro. He will get to trade blows with Canada’s Nelson (17-6-1, 5-5-1 UFC) in what should be a banger. The lightweights draw oversight from referee Herb Dean, who has donned his proverbial hard hat ahead of what’s about to come. There is not a glove touch before the trail of devastation begins.
In five seconds, McKinney lands three punches and gets Nelson’s attention, tripping during the third when his lead leg gets kicked. Nelson swings back but whiffs, and
McKinney boots him in the raised guard 11 seconds in and puts the Canadian down on the ground. McKinney pounces, and he proceeds to beat Nelson down with a seemingly unending barrage of right hands and hammerfists.
Nelson shells up and is protecting his face from the worst of the damage, but McKinney is the bus that couldn’t slow down and continues clobbering Nelson while Dean is right there watching on. As McKinney keeps sledgehammering “The Monster,” and Dean has no choice to intervene as Nelson is not intelligently defending himself or moving in a way to improve his position. Upwards of 20 blows connect before Dean halts the content, and “T.Wrecks” has done it again. It will not set a new personal record—that will remain with his seven-second destructions of Matt Frevola and Jeff Coleman—but it is another first-round stoppage on his ledger and a very small amount of work after a lengthy camp.

The Official Result
Terrance McKinney def. Kyle Nelson R1 0:24 via TKO (Head Kick and Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 22, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

Angelo picks Terrance McKinney despite acknowledging his cardio and chin issues. He believes McKinney is the better striker, wrestler, and more powerful, and hopes he puts on a show at home. He admits he went against his own rule of not betting on McKinney and placed a half-unit bet at -141.

Half a unit at -141
"Half a unit minus 141, Terrance McKinney's the pick."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 23, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

Big Brady picks Terrance McKinney to win by first-round knockout. He expects a car crash of a fight, noting both fighters lack durability and have been finished often. He believes McKinney's early pressure and power will be too much for Kyle Nelson, who has been finished in four losses. He thinks McKinney will knock him out in the first few minutes.

McKinney by KO round 1
"I think McKinney's going to knock him out in the very first round."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 25, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Kyle Nelson

Cody picks Nelson, believing McKinney's early explosiveness will fade and Nelson's durability and cardio will take over. He also mentions inside information from Nelson's training partner.

"Kyle Nelson for me, brother."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 26, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Kyle Nelson

Connor picks Nelson, noting that McKinney is only dangerous in the first round and concedes when he can't get an immediate finish. He points out that McKinney has only won one fight outside the first three minutes in his entire career. Nelson is susceptible early but if he survives, McKinney gives up. Connor says you can't pick a competent fighter to lose to McKinney.

Odds: Nelson opened +150, now +145; McKinney opened -175, now -170. Connor says he can't imagine betting on McKinney.
"You got to pick Kyle Nelson."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Mar 24, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

Daniel acknowledges McKinney's first-round finishing ability but is wary of his tendency to fade if he doesn't get the early KO. He picks McKinney but suggests live betting Nelson if the fight goes past two minutes.

"A pure pick, I'm going with McKinney, man. I'd like to see McKinney get back on track and just get Nelson out of there with a serious onslaught in round one."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert picked Mar 28, 2026 (fight day)

The host sees this as a coin flip: McKinney is explosive and dangerous early but has terrible cardio and has never been to a decision; Nelson is slow and hittable but has power and can survive the first round. The implied probabilities (65-40) offer no margin on either side, so the host passes entirely.

"You'd be crazy to back McKinney with how reckless he is and how bad his cardio is. But, with how dangerous McKinney is early and how stiff and slow Nelson is, I think you'd be crazy to back Nelson as …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 24, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

The host expects McKinney's explosive power and early aggression to overwhelm Nelson, leading to a first-round knockout. He notes McKinney's tendency to finish early and that all his UFC fights have ended under 1.5 rounds. He is less confident in betting McKinney straight due to his style's volatility but likes the under 1.5 rounds prop.

under 1.5 rounds
"I'm going to go McKenna. I'm not I don't want to bet him at shock just because I know what kind of style he has... but the under one and a half is definitely the spot even at shock to …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 25, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Kyle Nelson

Paul agrees, noting McKinney's history of gassing and Nelson's ability to survive early storms. He expects Nelson to win after the first round.

"Kyle Nelson is the side for me."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 27, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Kyle Nelson

The MMA Guru picks Kyle Nelson using reverse psychology, as he often picks McKinney to win by first-round TKO but McKinney fumbles. He believes McKinney will wobble Nelson early but then fade, allowing Nelson to take over in the second and third rounds with elbows and pressure. He notes McKinney's inconsistency.

"Reverse psychology. I'm going with Kyle Nelson, dude."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 26, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Kyle Nelson

Zane agrees, stating that McKinney's pattern is clear: he comes in keyed up and if he doesn't finish early, he gives up. He compares McKinney to the ID of fighters like McGregor and Pyfer. Nelson is a competent fighter who can survive the early storm. Zane notes that Nelson could lose if he gets caught early, but otherwise McKinney has no answer.

Odds: Nelson opened +150, now +145; McKinney opened -175, now -170.
"Can't pick a single competent fighter to lose to McKinney."
LOSS vs Chris Duncan
Submission R1 2:30 · UFC 323 · Dec 06, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Terrance McKinney 0 31 of 57 54% 31 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Chris Duncan 1 38 of 55 69% 53 of 75 1 of 2 50% 1 0 1:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Terrance McKinney 0 31 of 57 54% 31 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Chris Duncan 1 38 of 55 69% 53 of 75 1 of 2 50% 1 0 1:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Terrance McKinney 31 of 57 54% 26 of 50 5 of 7 0 of 0 24 of 45 6 of 11 1 of 1
Chris Duncan 38 of 55 69% 36 of 51 2 of 3 0 of 1 10 of 20 6 of 8 22 of 27
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Terrance McKinney 31 of 57 54% 26 of 50 5 of 7 0 of 0 24 of 45 6 of 11 1 of 1
Chris Duncan 38 of 55 69% 36 of 51 2 of 3 0 of 1 10 of 20 6 of 8 22 of 27
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Terrance McKinney vs. Chris Duncan
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Duncan (-170), McKinney (+142)

Round 1
Marc Goddard is the referee. McKinney walks Duncan into the fence and lands a massive knee followed by a head kick. That sets off a wild exchange where McKinney appears to get the best of the brawl by rocking his adversary with several heavy punches. A rocked Duncan wisely shoots out of desperation, and he somehow gets McKinney down. McKinney is up in short order, and he lands an elbow and a knee. Duncan, who still looks to be on shaky legs, somehow rocks McKinney with a right hand at range. They continue to trade with reckless aggression and just when it seems like Duncan is reeling, he rocks his foe with a wicked elbow in close quarters. McKinney crumbles to the floor and Duncan tees off with a series of unanswered punches. Goddard is taking a close look as the assault continues. Duncan’s punches aren’t especially powerful, though, so McKinney is getting some leeway. McKinney doesn’t seem to have much left, and the Scot decides to shift gears.
Duncan locks up an anaconda choke and applies the squeeze. McKinney taps in short order
, ending a wild bout that lived up to its violence potential.

The Official Result
Chris Duncan def. Terrance McKinney via Submission (Anaconda Choke) R1 2:30
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Nov 30, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

Angelo picks Terrance McKinney despite acknowledging his poor durability and cardio. He believes McKinney is incredibly dangerous early and can get the fight to the ground to find a finish. He notes that Chris Duncan is extremely durable and often comes back from being hurt, but Angelo thinks McKinney's early explosiveness will be enough. He advises against betting due to the high risk.

"I'm going to pick Terence McKini. Don't do anything with that information. These odds aren't good enough to bet on him."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 26, 2025 (10 days before fight)
Chris Duncan

Big Brady picks Chris Duncan, noting McKinney's tendency to fade after early bursts and his seven career finishes. He highlights Duncan's improved ground game and chin, and expects Duncan to weather the early storm and knock out McKinney late in the first round.

Duncan by first round knockout
"I'm going to say Duncan weathers the early storm and knocks out Terrence McKenna in very brutal fashion late in the first round."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Dec 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

Cody leans toward McKinney, citing his explosive start and finishing ability. He notes that McKinney's fights are usually over in the first round and that Duncan has shown a questionable chin. He mentions that if McKinney doesn't finish early, Duncan's cardio advantage could come into play, but he trusts McKinney's early burst.

"I'm gonna go with the Terrence McKenna side. Uh, but I will say with the caveat of um I feel like a Duncan round two prop at like plus 450 plus plus 600's out there."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Chris Duncan

Connor picks Chris Duncan, noting that Duncan has improved significantly at ATT, developing a calm, consistent striking game with good shot selection and power. He contrasts McKinney's all-gas-no-brakes style that fades after two minutes, and believes Duncan has the answers to McKinney's early blitz.

"I have to prick Chris Duncan the way, especially the way Chris Duncan is now. Like that's what I was going to say. Chris Duncan, I think has really gotten a lot better in a pretty short period of time."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 27, 2025 (9 days before fight)
Chris Duncan

Daniel picks Duncan, reasoning that if he survives McKinney's first-round onslaught, he will take over. He notes McKinney has never been past the first round and fades, while Duncan has shown durability and finishing ability. He sees Duncan winning by knockout or submission in later rounds.

"I am going to pick Chris Duncan. There's obviously a chance he gets finished in the first, but if he doesn't, he's got multiple avenues to victory."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 29, 2025 (7 days before fight)
Chris Duncan

Lucrative James acknowledges his bias as a friend of Chris Duncan but provides detailed reasoning. He believes McKinney's only chance is an early finish, while Duncan's physicality, cardio, and improving grappling defense will carry him through. He notes Duncan's training with Grant Dawson and focus on back-take defense. He predicts Duncan wins inside the distance, likely by KO.

Chris Duncan inside the distance
"I got Chris all day here, boys."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Chris Duncan

The host acknowledges the recent love for McKinney but expects Duncan to take advantage of McKinney's overaggressive style and find a finish within one and a half rounds.

finish within 1.5 rounds
"I think that we'll see Duncan eventually take advantage of McKenny's overaggressive style and find that finish under one and a half rounds."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Chris Duncan

Paul picks Duncan, emphasizing his multiple paths to victory. He notes that McKinney's win condition is a first-round finish, while Duncan has power, a guillotine choke, and cardio. He mentions that Duncan trains at American Top Team and has prepared for McKinney's wrestling. He believes if McKinney doesn't finish early, Duncan will take over.

"I'm going to actually go with Chris Duncan in this spot. Just he's got more ways to win."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

The Guru picks Terrance McKinney despite acknowledging Duncan may be the better fighter. He believes McKinney's speed and first-round explosiveness will catch Duncan, who is hittable early. The Guru predicts a first-round TKO, possibly in the first minute.

first round TKO
"I'm going to go with Terrence McKini getting this one done by TKO in the first round over Chris Duncan."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Chris Duncan

Zane picks Chris Duncan, emphasizing that McKinney has never won a UFC fight outside the first two minutes and loses when his initial blitz fails. He notes Duncan's improved striking and power, and believes Duncan can weather the early storm and take over. Zane thinks the odds should be wider in Duncan's favor.

Duncan should be a bigger favorite
"I think Duncan could, that should actually be a bunch bigger favorite. Frankly."
Submission R1 0:55 · UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · Jun 28, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Terrance McKinney 0 1 of 2 50% 1 of 2 1 of 1 100% 2 0 0:47
Viacheslav Borshchev 0 2 of 2 100% 2 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Terrance McKinney 0 1 of 2 50% 1 of 2 1 of 1 100% 2 0 0:47
Viacheslav Borshchev 0 2 of 2 100% 2 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Terrance McKinney 1 of 2 50% 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 2
Viacheslav Borshchev 2 of 2 100% 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Terrance McKinney 1 of 2 50% 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 2
Viacheslav Borshchev 2 of 2 100% 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Viacheslav Borshchev vs. Terrance McKinney
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: McKinney (-185), Borshchev (+154)

Round 1
Fans should be treated to a delight with this lightweight smash-em-up derby. In the one corner stands McKinney (16-7, 6-4 UFC), who has reached the third round just one time in 23 pro outings. In the other is brick-fisted Team Alpha Male product Borshchev (8-5-1, 3-4-1 UFC), who is looking to even his promotional record to .500 should he get his hand raised tonight. Bettors and prognosticators expect this one should not hear the final bell, with odds hovering around -800 to -900 that it ends inside the distance. If that is the case, referee Chris Tognoni will need to be on his A game to intervene at a moment’s notice. Gloves are touched before they are traded.
Borshchev introduces himself with a spinning back kick that plants on the ribcage of McKinney, who then shoots for a double that sends them flying. McKinney gets on top and wraps up an anaconda choke as soon as they hit the ground, and Borshchev is in the danger zone in a hurry.
“T. Wrecks” uses the submission to roll the Team Alpha Male fighter over to his back, where he assumes full mount and transitions to a guillotine choke. The choke is fastened as tight as can be, and Borshchev has his arms trapped and flails his legs to try to buck himself out. His head starts to turn a shade of red that matches McKinney’s shorts, and before he is put to sleep, he surrenders.
Just like that, the fight is over, and McKinney stands up, looks at the camera and smiles while shrugging. The fighters hug it out after the brief but emphatic performance, waiting nearly as long for the official decision to be read as it took for McKinney to win the fight.

The Official Result
Terrance McKinney def. Viacheslav Borshchev R1 0:55 via Submission (Guillotine Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jun 22, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

Angelo picks Terrance McKinney because he believes McKinney's early explosiveness will overwhelm Viacheslav Borshchev, who is older and may not be as durable as before. He notes that McKinney is reliable in that he either finishes early or loses, and he thinks McKinney will come out like a bat out of hell and get the job done. However, he admits he is picking against Borshchev more than for McKinney, and he will monitor the odds for a good betting spot.

Angelo says he will keep an eye on the odds and use his line movement tracker to find a good entry point.
"I am going to go Terrance McKinney. Viacheslav is 33 years old. He is 55 years old in fight years."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jun 21, 2025 (7 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

Big Brady acknowledges McKinney is the rightful favorite due to his wrestling and power, but he is hesitant because both fighters have questionable durability. He notes Borshchev has terrible takedown defense and was dropped by Chase Hooper, but McKinney's cardio is atrocious and his durability is also suspect. Brady thinks McKinney will land first and win by first-round knockout, but if it leaves the first round, McKinney is in trouble.

McKinney wins by first round knockout
"Give me Terence McKenna to win by first round knockout. But he's so untrustworthy."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Jun 27, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Terrance McKinney

Connor picks McKinney, acknowledging Borshchev's durability but noting that Borshchev has been getting worse and more indecisive. McKinney's early explosiveness should catch Borshchev, and if he finishes early, he wins. However, Connor admits it's a risky pick.

Odds: McKinney -168, Borshchev +145.
"I'm typing Terence McKinney because I think Borshov has been coming out looking like he has less and less idea of what he's supposed to be doing."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Viacheslav Borshchev

The host notes McKinney's tendency for early finishes, but picks Borshchev to fend off the early grappling and get a TKO finish by the end of the first or early second round.

under 1.5 rounds, TKO finish
"I think it's going to be Borchev who ends up fending off the early grappling threat of McKenna and then eventually pulverizes him by the ending of the first round or early second round to get that TKO finish."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Jun 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

The host picks Terrance McKinney, citing his underrated grappling as the X-factor. He notes that Borshchev has shown weaknesses in grappling, as seen in his losses to Chase Hooper and others. However, he acknowledges McKinney's tendency to get knocked out spectacularly and sees the fight as a 50/50 on the feet. He believes McKinney will use his wrestling to secure a win.

"I'm going with Terrence McKini here. Um I I think Terrence McKini is uh is good enough to beat Vishlav Borchev."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 27, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Viacheslav Borshchev

Zane picks Borshchev, reasoning that McKinney only wins if he finishes in the first round, and Borshchev has never been finished early. Borshchev's durability and McKinney's tendency to fade give Borshchev the edge if he survives the initial onslaught.

Odds: McKinney -168, Borshchev +145. Zane notes the odds are getting closer.
"I'm going to pick Borshov."
KO R1 2:01 · UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Imavov · Feb 01, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Terrance McKinney 0 54 of 69 78% 69 of 90 0 of 0 --- 1 1 1:00
Damir Hadžović 0 4 of 13 30% 4 of 13 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:08
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Terrance McKinney 0 54 of 69 78% 69 of 90 0 of 0 --- 1 1 1:00
Damir Hadžović 0 4 of 13 30% 4 of 13 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:08
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Terrance McKinney 54 of 69 78% 53 of 67 1 of 2 0 of 0 8 of 18 0 of 0 46 of 51
Damir Hadžović 4 of 13 30% 3 of 9 0 of 3 1 of 1 4 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Terrance McKinney 54 of 69 78% 53 of 67 1 of 2 0 of 0 8 of 18 0 of 0 46 of 51
Damir Hadžović 4 of 13 30% 3 of 9 0 of 3 1 of 1 4 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Damir Hadzovic vs. Terrance McKinney

Round 1
Lightweights step into the spotlight for the first time, as McKinney (15-7, 5-4 UFC) toes the line against Hadzovic (14-7, 4-5 UFC)—the oldest fighter on the card at 38 years of age. Jason Herzog handles the refereeing duties. We get underway with a glove touch. Body kick from McKinney, followed by a glancing head kick. Two-punch volley from Hadzovic. One-two from McKinney backs up the Bosnian. Hadzovic answers and shoots on a takedown.
McKinney catches a guillotine on the way down and rolls into full mount and unleashes vicious 12-to-6 elbows. He settles on the back and fires away with punches from both hands, prompting the stoppage
.

The Official Result
Terrance McKinney def. Damir Hadzovic—TKO (Punches) 2:01 R1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 26, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

Angelo picks Terrance McKinney despite his unreliability, citing his superior talent, wrestling, and striking. He notes that Damir Hadžović is older (38) and not as dangerous. He worries about McKinney's cardio and chin but believes he should win early. He suggests looking at round props rather than betting the moneyline at -335.

Suggests looking at round line (under 1.5) and prop bets.
"Terence mckin should win I'm picking Terence mckin to win I'm hoping these odds Titan though betting on Terence mckin at minus 335 is the the plot of a nightmare"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 27, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

Big Brady sees this as an easy matchup for Terrance McKinney, who has great wrestling and BJJ. Damir Hadžović has the worst takedown defense in the UFC and has been submitted before. Brady thinks McKinney will take him down and submit him in the first round, though he notes McKinney has terrible cardio if the fight extends. He predicts a first-round submission.

first round submission
"I'm going Terence mckenny to win this fight by first round sub if he gets out of the first round um it could very well be bad but I just don't see hadzovic lasting five minutes"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

McKinney has a massive grappling advantage and will look to get the fight to the ground immediately. He is expected to take the back and secure a first-round submission, as he has done in all nine of his UFC fights. The fight is predicted to go under 1.5 rounds.

under 1.5 rounds
"McKenna should have a tremendous his grappling Advantage here and I'd be surprised if he does not look to get this fight to the ground almost immediately from there I expect him to go to the back get that first …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 28, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

The MMA Guru picks Terrance McKinney to win by TKO in the first round. He believes McKinney has finishing potential while Hadžović does not, and that Hadžović is past his prime and likely to be decisioned. He notes McKinney's losses are brutal but expects him to get the job done here.

first round finish
"I'm going to go with Terrence mckin getting it done TKO first round I say first round finish for Terrence mckin"
KO (head kick) R1 0:37 · UFC on ESPN: Lewis vs. Nascimento · May 11, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Esteban Ribovics 0 5 of 18 27% 5 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Terrance McKinney 1 5 of 12 41% 5 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Esteban Ribovics 0 5 of 18 27% 5 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Terrance McKinney 1 5 of 12 41% 5 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Esteban Ribovics 5 of 18 27% 3 of 16 2 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 16 2 of 2 0 of 0
Terrance McKinney 5 of 12 41% 3 of 8 1 of 2 1 of 2 4 of 10 1 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Esteban Ribovics 5 of 18 27% 3 of 16 2 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 16 2 of 2 0 of 0
Terrance McKinney 5 of 12 41% 3 of 8 1 of 2 1 of 2 4 of 10 1 of 2 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Terrance McKinney vs. Esteban Ribovics
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Ribovics (-175), McKinney (+145)

Round 1
The matchmakers made sure at least one fight on the billing would practically promise bonkers action for as long as it lasts, and this is that bout. In 21 pro outings, McKinney (15-6, 5-3 UFC) has never heard the final bell, while Ribovics (12-1, 1-1 UFC) has gone the distance twice after 13 appearances. Referee Gary Copeland has donned his hard hat for what could be a wild and crazy first round, although it starts with a calm glove touch. McKinney immediately opens up with a one-two, and he takes a low kick and throws back hard. Ribovics sits down on a power punch, and he absorbs a flush combination and catches McKinney with a knee when “T. Wrecks” bends over. McKinney connects with a right hand, and
Ribovics tosses out a few punches, reaches with a right hand and sets up one of the most beautiful head kicks one can muster as it collides square into McKinney’s head. McKinney is out cold as soon as the shin makes contact, and he collapses lifelessly to his seat as his back bounces into the fence behind him.
Blood leaks out of his nose as he sits there, totally unconscious. Ribovics knows that he does not need to do anything else today, and he proudly walks away as Copeland tends to the snoozing lightweight. Wow, what a finish! “Knockout of the Year” has one more contender in an already crowded list with that absolute gem, and Ribovics has officially announced himself to the lightweight division in a massive way.

The Official Result
Esteban Ribovics def. Terrance McKinney R1 0:37 via KO (Head Kick)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked May 5, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Angelo picks Esteban Ribovics as the more durable and dependable fighter, despite Terrance McKinney's raw talent and explosiveness. He notes Ribovics has been taken down 14 times in his last five fights, but McKinney has been finished in every loss. He acknowledges the fight is close to 50/50 and that McKinney could win if he lands early.

"I got to go with the more durable guy here I have to go with the more dependable guy"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 8, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Big Brady picks Esteban Ribovics to survive McKinney's early storm and finish him in the late first or second round by knockout. He notes McKinney has never won a UFC fight past the first round and tends to gas if he doesn't finish early. Ribovics has durability, cardio, heart, and finishing ability. He expects McKinney to try wrestling, but if he doesn't finish, he will fade and get finished himself.

"I'm going to take riix to uh survive an early storm here get taken down get back up make McKenna work and I think he's going to push a pace here and finish M McKenna in the the late first …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 7, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Cody picks Ribovics, noting that McKinney is a 'glass cannon' who gasses after the first round. He expects McKinney to come out fast and possibly take Ribovics down early, but Ribovics has shown he can survive and come back. Cody likes the under 1.5 rounds prop as parlay fodder, as McKinney fights are usually short. He suggests live betting Ribovics if McKinney wins the first round.

Under 1.5 rounds (-220) parlayed with other unders; live betting Ribovics
"I think ribovich is a better live bet and I suppose yeah the the under one and a half is decent uh decent parlay fodder"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 9, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Daniel Vreeland picks Esteban Ribovics, noting that McKinney is dangerous in the first round but fades if he doesn't get the finish. He believes Ribovics can survive the early onslaught and take over late, getting a finish. He mentions Ribovics' ability to get back to his feet and his late-round power.

late finish
"I think estaban takes over late and gets a late finish."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 7, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

The host expects McKinney's early explosiveness to overwhelm Ribovics, likely via knockout in round 1. He notes McKinney's tendency to gas but believes Ribovics' takedown defense issues will be exploited. He strongly recommends the under 1.5 rounds as a must-play, and also likes McKinney round 1 prop. The pick is confident for the early finish, though he acknowledges the risk if McKinney fails.

Under 1.5 rounds is a must play; McKinney round 1 prop
"give me uh mckenny round one but the under one and a half is a must play especially in Terence McKenna fights"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 7, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Paul picks Ribovics, agreeing that McKinney is a first-round specialist who fades. He notes that Ribovics has a strong chin and cardio, and can take McKinney's best shots. Paul expects Ribovics to survive the early storm and take over in the second round. He also likes the under 1.5 rounds prop due to McKinney's tendency to finish or get finished quickly.

Under 1.5 rounds
"I expect ribovich eventually to Prevail and mckin to gas out and then probably get finished either late in the first round or early in the second round"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 7, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

The MMA Guru picks Terrance McKinney as an underdog over Esteban Ribovics. He notes that McKinney has a wrestling background he doesn't always use but can rely on, and that Ribovics is hook-heavy with a reach disadvantage. He references Ribovics' fight with Kamuela Kirk where Kirk took him down and controlled him, suggesting McKinney can do the same. He also trusts McKinney's cardio and power on the feet.

"I'm gonna go with Terren mckin who is an underdog here... I think he has the advantage in the grappling over esam ribovich."
TKO (knee and punches) R1 0:20 · UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Barboza · Oct 14, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Terrance McKinney 1 14 of 21 66% 14 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Brendon Marotte 0 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Terrance McKinney 1 14 of 21 66% 14 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Brendon Marotte 0 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Terrance McKinney 14 of 21 66% 14 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 1 of 1 13 of 19
Brendon Marotte 1 of 1 100% 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Terrance McKinney 14 of 21 66% 14 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 1 of 1 13 of 19
Brendon Marotte 1 of 1 100% 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Brendon Marotte vs. Terrance McKinney
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: McKinney (-450), Marotte (+300)

Round 1
Lightweights are next to the stage, as McKinney (14-6, 4-3 UFC) squares off with the once-beaten Marotte (8-1, 0-0 UFC)—a short-notice substitution for Chris Duncan. Marotte, 26, has won three fights in a row. Herb Dean answers the call to preside over the match.
McKinney connects with a clean knee strike in their first exchange, and Marotte hits the deck in a horrendous start to his promotional debut. McKinney trails him to the canvas and unleashes a string of unanswered punches that necessitate a quick stoppage
.

The Official Result
Terrance McKinney def. Brendon Marotte—TKO (Knee and Punches) 0:20 R1
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

Big Brady picks Terrance McKinney to win by first-round submission. He notes McKinney is dangerous early with power and wrestling, while Marotte is a big step up in competition and may not survive the first round. He warns that if Marotte survives, he could win, but expects McKinney to get it done quickly.

McKinney by submission in round 1
"going be Terence mckenny to win this fight by first round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

Cody picks McKinney, emphasizing that Marotte is a huge underdog with no recent fights and a shaky defense. He notes that McKinney's pressure and power are likely to overwhelm Marotte early. Cody suggests that if Marotte survives the first round, he could be live, but he doubts that will happen.

"McKinney is the pick"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 12, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

The host picks Terrance McKinney by round one, noting his explosive power and fast starts. He highlights that 19 of 20 McKinney fights finished under 1.5 rounds. However, he warns against the moneyline due to cardio issues and suggests taking McKinney round one or under 1.5 rounds.

McKinney round one; under 1.5 rounds
"I'll take mckenny mckenny round one but nothing to do with that minus 600 money line cardio way too question able"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

Paul picks McKinney, noting his explosive first-round power and the fact that Marotte has no recent tape and is stepping in on short notice. He acknowledges McKinney's cardio issues but believes Marotte is not durable enough to survive the first round. Paul suggests betting McKinney round 1 or Marotte round 2 as value plays.

McKinney round 1 or Marotte round 2
"McKinney all day"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 10, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

The MMA Guru picks Terrance McKinney to win by TKO over Brendan Marotte. He dismisses Marotte as an awful regional fighter who beat an 11-20 opponent and went to a split decision with an 8-4 fighter. He notes Marotte trains at New England Cartel but lacks quality wins. He believes McKinney has a speed advantage and won't be outgrappled, and that Marotte's short notice and lack of durability will lead to a finish.

TKO
"I'm going to have to go with teren mckin getting this one done by TKO another can for mckin"
WIN vs Mike Breeden
TKO (punches) R1 1:25 · UFC on ESPN: Luque vs. dos Anjos · Aug 12, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Terrance McKinney 0 30 of 47 63% 30 of 47 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:03
Mike Breeden 0 1 of 5 20% 1 of 5 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Terrance McKinney 0 30 of 47 63% 30 of 47 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:03
Mike Breeden 0 1 of 5 20% 1 of 5 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Terrance McKinney 30 of 47 63% 23 of 36 7 of 11 0 of 0 16 of 30 11 of 14 3 of 3
Mike Breeden 1 of 5 20% 0 of 4 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Terrance McKinney 30 of 47 63% 23 of 36 7 of 11 0 of 0 16 of 30 11 of 14 3 of 3
Mike Breeden 1 of 5 20% 0 of 4 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Terrance McKinney vs. Mike Breeden
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: McKinney (-270), Breeden (+220)

Round 1
Referee Chris Tognoni is on the highest of alerts for this lightweight preliminary clash, one that could end in the blink of an eye. A 19-fight veteran, McKinney (13-6, 3-3 UFC) has still never gone the distance, and his foe Breeden (10-5, 0-2 UFC) is no stranger to the knockout himself. Little more needs to be said other than that these two fighters sportingly touch hands before getting after it. McKinney pressures forward immediately, landing a right hand and changing levels for a single. McKinney lets it go and slings a head kick, and it bounds off the guard as Breeden ricochets off the fencing. Breeden comes back at him, and McKinney aims another head kick his way. Breeden kicks the ribs, and McKinney catches it and thinks about taking the fight down, but he releases it so that he can sling a right hand. Breeden throws a right hand, and McKinney blasts him in the body and bends Breeden over. Breeden is in a bad way, and he gets pounded with strikes as McKinney pounces on him. Breeden tries to take him down, but McKinney shuts him down and knees him several times to the chest and midsection.
Breeden is barely still with it, as he gets smashed with punches and knees. Breeden tries to escape, but McKinney is on him, unleashing a fury of fists until Tognoni leaps in between them to stop the fight.
This was a much-needed victory for the promising “T. Wrecks,” who reminds the division that he is still very much here and a force to be reckoned with.

The Official Result
Terrance McKinney def. Mike Breeden R1 1:25 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Aug 6, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

Angelo picks McKinney but with low confidence due to cardio concerns and the short-notice turnaround. He notes McKinney has solid wrestling and BJJ but gasses and has a questionable chin. He is staying away from the -400 odds but suggests prop bets like McKinney winning the first round or getting more takedowns.

McKinney to get more takedowns (if under -300), McKinney to win first round
"Terrence McKinney's still going to be the pick but low confidence and I'm staying far far away from these four to one odds"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

Big Brady picks Terrance McKinney to win by knockout early in the first round, likely within 60 seconds. He notes McKinney's dangerous striking and wrestling but acknowledges his poor cardio and short-notice fight. He believes McKinney will finish Breeden quickly, as Breeden has awful takedown defense and has been finished before. However, he cautions that if McKinney doesn't finish in the first round, he is likely to lose.

knockout early in the first round, within 60 seconds
"I will take Terence McKinney to knock out Mike Breeden um within 60 seconds like I think 60 seconds is is very much in play here for Terence McKinney"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Aug 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Mike Breeden

Cody picks Breeden by second-round finish as a prop bet, not on the moneyline. He notes McKinney's notorious cardio issues and short-notice fight (27 days after his last fight). He thinks if Breeden survives the first round, he will take over. He recommends a small sprinkle on Breeden round 2 at long odds, or live betting after the first round.

Breeden round 2 at +1200; also mentions Breeden round 3 at +2100; suggests live betting Breeden after round 1
"breed in round two is a you know throw a little sprinkle and uh and hope for the best type of play of the week"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Aug 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Mike Breeden

James is leaning toward Breeden as a value play, noting McKinney is a round-one-or-bust fighter and is priced at -300. He thinks Breeden is tough with good cardio and could survive the early storm. James admits McKinney could get back on track but feels the odds are too high for such a volatile fighter. He might bet Breeden.

James suggests if betting McKinney, play his KO or submission prop instead of moneyline.
"I'll always fade Terence at minus 300 for the most part against anybody with a pulse."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 10, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

McKinney has cardio issues but is extremely powerful and athletic early. Breeden is coming off a long layoff and camp change. McKinney's under 1.5 rounds streak is 18 of 19 fights, so the under is a strong play. McKinney should get the TKO in the first round due to his speed and power.

under 1.5 rounds (-290), McKinney by TKO in round 1
"I'm gonna go with McKinney here as I think he's too athletic and too powerful for Breeden to deal with early and I think that will allow him to get the TKO victory in the first round"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Aug 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Mike Breeden

Paul also likes Breeden as a live underdog or round 2/3 prop. He notes McKinney's cardio fades after the first round and that Breeden has shown good cardio in past fights, especially in the third round against Natan Levy. He thinks Breeden can survive the initial onslaught and take over later. He recommends a small bet on Breeden round 2 or 3.

Breeden round 2 at +1200; Breeden round 3 at +2100; suggests live betting
"I will be playing the breeding round two pro because five minute fighter bro"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Aug 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

The MMA Guru picks Terrance McKinney but is hesitant, acknowledging McKinney's cardio issues and tendency to gas after round one. He believes McKinney is the better fighter and should win by first-round KO if he fights aggressively, but warns that if the fight goes past round one, Breeden could take over. He suggests a live bet on Breeden if McKinney gasses.

Live bet on Mike Breeden if McKinney gasses after round one
"I'm gonna go Terence McKinney yeah uh but he could lose again because Mike breeden's not some joke"
Erick Gonzalez - Fight History
LOSS vs Trevor Peek
KO (punches) R1 4:59 · UFC Fight Night: Muniz vs. Allen · Feb 25, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Trevor Peek 0 7 of 29 24% 11 of 35 4 of 6 66% 0 0 2:15
Erick Gonzalez 2 51 of 86 59% 51 of 86 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:16
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Trevor Peek 0 7 of 29 24% 11 of 35 4 of 6 66% 0 0 2:15
Erick Gonzalez 2 51 of 86 59% 51 of 86 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:16
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Trevor Peek 7 of 29 24% 5 of 27 1 of 1 1 of 1 7 of 28 0 of 1 0 of 0
Erick Gonzalez 51 of 86 59% 38 of 70 8 of 11 5 of 5 36 of 67 9 of 12 6 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Trevor Peek 7 of 29 24% 5 of 27 1 of 1 1 of 1 7 of 28 0 of 1 0 of 0
Erick Gonzalez 51 of 86 59% 38 of 70 8 of 11 5 of 5 36 of 67 9 of 12 6 of 7
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Feb 23, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Erick Gonzalez

Connor picks Gonzalez, noting that he has a five-inch reach advantage and should be able to stick at range with jabs and kicks. He acknowledges that Gonzalez doesn't maintain range well and gets into the pocket, but he believes Gonzalez is trying to be a good fighter and has better structure than Peek. Connor also points out that Gonzalez's early career losses were not by knockout, which is a good sign for his durability here.

Peek opened at -200, dropped to -172, now -199. Gonzalez opened +170, dropped to +144, now +164.
"I'll take guns all us to get this one I think you know generally for him the fighters who beat him are pretty good they're not complete messes most of the time"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Feb 23, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Trevor Peek

Zane picks Peek because Gonzalez is made of glass and his style pushes him forward into the pocket, where Peek can land. He notes that Gonzalez is uncomfortable at range and gets clipped, while Peek is a messy brawler who will storm the castle. Zane admits Peek could get knocked out in the process, but he picks him to get the knockout.

Peek opened at -200, dropped to -172, now -199. Gonzalez opened +170, dropped to +144, now +164.
"I'm gonna pick him really yeah he's a messy brawler and Eric Gonzalez certainly has something to him yeah but he is made of glass"
Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 2:17 · UFC on ESPN: Santos vs. Hill · Aug 06, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Terrance McKinney 0 18 of 37 48% 23 of 42 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:52
Erick Gonzalez 0 9 of 16 56% 10 of 18 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Terrance McKinney 0 18 of 37 48% 23 of 42 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:52
Erick Gonzalez 0 9 of 16 56% 10 of 18 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Terrance McKinney 18 of 37 48% 15 of 34 3 of 3 0 of 0 14 of 32 3 of 3 1 of 2
Erick Gonzalez 9 of 16 56% 6 of 11 1 of 2 2 of 3 9 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Terrance McKinney 18 of 37 48% 15 of 34 3 of 3 0 of 0 14 of 32 3 of 3 1 of 2
Erick Gonzalez 9 of 16 56% 6 of 11 1 of 2 2 of 3 9 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Erick Gonzalez vs. Terrance McKinney
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: McKinney (-850), Gonzalez (+600)

Round 1
After some last-minute finagling, the main card will now open with a lightweight banger between well-nicknamed gentlemen “T.Wrecks” McKinney (12-4, 2-1 UFC) and “The Ghost Pepper” Gonzalez (14-6, 0-1 UFC). Referee Chris Tognoni will need to be on his A-game in case he has to step in at a moment’s notice, given how these two can engage. They do not bother to touch gloves, and McKinney quickly starts walking his foe down and kicks him upside the head. Gonzalez absorbs or blocks a few winging punches, and he swings with a kick that makes him slip and hit the mat. McKinney cannot reach him before Gonzalez gets upright again, and Gonzalez lets go with a body kick. When “The Ghost Pepper” spices things up with a few punches, McKinney meets him with a clean one-two and an uppercut that wobbles Gonzalez’ legs. McKinney works his way in to start scoring knees, and Gonzalez grabs him and tries to take him down. McKinney hops back to keep his balance, and he gets stung with a sharp left hand. McKinney shakes his head, ducks another and hits a speedy takedown to plant Gonzalez firmly on his back. McKinney steps into half guard and postures up to start dropping down punches, and Gonzalez pushes him off with his feet. Gonzalez turns to his knees and gives up his back, and McKinney climbs on to take his back. Gonzalez stands up despite having “T.Wrecks” on his back, and this is a dangerous strategy as McKinney starts fishing for the neck while Gonzalez is more focused on getting upright.
McKinney latches on with his forearm around the chin, and he slides it beneath the chin to get the choke on lock. Gonzalez leans to his side and motions to Tognoni that he is good to go, but this is short-lived. McKinney continues to squeeze with the rear-naked choke grip tightly wrapped around the throat, and Gonzalez leans to his side practically 90 degrees before he surrenders, not wanting to get put out cold.
McKinney releases immediately when Tognoni steps in, and he has just moved back into the win column thanks to a slick submission.

The Official Result
Terrance McKinney def. Erick Gonzalez R1 2:17 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 31, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

Angelo is confident in Terrance McKinney despite his recent loss to Drew Dober. He emphasizes that McKinney dropped Dober multiple times and looked incredible before gassing, and believes Erick Gonzalez cannot survive that same onslaught. He expects McKinney to be more reserved but still win, and suggests he could be a parlay piece if his price isn't too high.

If he's at minus six great minus nine leave him out of your parlays
"I expect terence to come out probably be a little more reserved right he's coming off that that was bad that knockout or that stoppage so he'll probably be a little more reserved but he's absolutely the pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 2, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

Big Brady is confident in Terrance McKinney, noting his 100% finish rate and the fact that he is a massive favorite. He highlights McKinney's power and underrated wrestling, and points out that Erick Gonzalez has poor takedown defense and has been submitted twice. He predicts a first-round submission win for McKinney, though he acknowledges that if the fight extends, McKinney has slowed down in the past.

first round submission prediction, 100% finish rate mentioned
"i will take mckinney to win by submission but i do think mckinney whatever he does i think he does it pretty quickly here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 3, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

Cody also picks McKinney, highlighting his explosive power and wrestling. He notes that McKinney's reckless style could lead to a counter, but Gonzalez has been knocked out before. Cody thinks the fight won't go past one round, but the odds offer no value. He jokes about McKinney's motivation to finish quickly.

McKinney wins in round 1 (minus 200); under 1.5 rounds (minus 245)
"McKinney probably finishes him in round one... at minus 1000 it adds nothing to my top ticket."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 3, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

Daniel Levi picks McKinney but refuses to lay -900, citing McKinney's one-round cardio and tendency to fade or get caught if the fight extends. He acknowledges McKinney's athleticism and speed should overwhelm Gonzalez, but the price is too steep for a fighter with cardio issues. He recommends passing on the bet.

"I got Terence McKinney I'm just not willing to lay minus 900"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 3, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

Paul picks McKinney but notes the line is unbeatable. He mentions McKinney's all-action style and tendency to finish early. Paul is concerned about McKinney's recklessness but believes he will likely finish Gonzalez in the first round. He suggests the over 1.5 rounds at +195 as a potential play if Gonzalez can survive.

McKinney wins in round 1 (steam to -250); over 1.5 rounds at +195
"McKinney probably finishes him in round one... it's a straight up pass."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 1, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

The MMA Guru picks Terrance McKinney by first-round TKO, calling Erick Gonzalez a layup. He notes Gonzalez's KO loss to Jim Miller and lackluster regional record. He believes McKinney's speed and explosiveness will overwhelm Gonzalez, who may freeze up after his first KO loss. He acknowledges Gonzalez's size and reach but thinks McKinney is too quick.

first round tko
"i'm picking terrence mckinney shock over eric gonzalez... i think it's a recipe for eric gonzalez to freeze up early on and then get smacked out by terence mckinney by tko in the first round"
LOSS vs Jim Miller
KO (punch) R2 0:14 · UFC Fight Night: Ladd vs. Dumont · Oct 16, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jim Miller 1 32 of 48 66% 43 of 60 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:55
Erick Gonzalez 0 14 of 37 37% 22 of 45 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jim Miller 0 27 of 41 65% 38 of 53 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:52
Erick Gonzalez 0 13 of 34 38% 21 of 42 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:02
2 Jim Miller 1 5 of 7 71% 5 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Erick Gonzalez 0 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jim Miller 32 of 48 66% 25 of 41 4 of 4 3 of 3 18 of 30 8 of 10 6 of 8
Erick Gonzalez 14 of 37 37% 10 of 30 3 of 5 1 of 2 11 of 33 2 of 2 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jim Miller 27 of 41 65% 20 of 34 4 of 4 3 of 3 16 of 27 8 of 10 3 of 4
Erick Gonzalez 13 of 34 38% 9 of 27 3 of 5 1 of 2 10 of 30 2 of 2 1 of 2
2 Jim Miller 5 of 7 71% 5 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 3 0 of 0 3 of 4
Erick Gonzalez 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jim Miller vs. Erick Gonzalez

Round 1
East coast meets west in this lightweight clash with the widest discrepancy in Octagon experience ever. Soon-to-be 38-fight vet Miller (32-16, 1 NC; 21-15, 1 NC UFC) out of New Jersey will be introducing “Ghost Pepper” Gonzalez (14-5, 0-0 UFC) to the organization. Winless since June 2020, Miller will try to right the ship and stave off conversations about retirement for another day, and referee Mark Smith will be right there should anything go awry. Ever the sportsman, Miller offers a glove touch, and the newcomer is happy to accept. Miller comes out with a few right hands, and Gonzalez keeps his left hand outstretched to keep the vet at bay. The newcomer connects with an overhand left, and he gets the inside of his leg kicked. Miller scores a solid left hand and a head kick, and he uses the momentum to press Gonzalez into the fence. Miller gets off a knee to the body and a right hand as he stays up close, and Gonzalez torques his foe around and throws him to the mat. Gonzalez claims half guard, and Miller attacks with hacking elbows from his back. Miller closes his guard tightly, Gonzalez breaks the legs and backs away. Miller gets back to his feet and keeps his guard up, blocking a head kick that comes right at him. A spicy combination from “The Ghost Pepper” cracks Miller, and the longtime vet is hurt and dives in for a takedown try to clear his head. He lands it, and now it is the newcomer who closes his guard as Miller hacks at him. Miller is unable to keep him down for long, and Gonzalez muscles his way back up to his feet as they slug it out. Miller gets tagged from a few punches, and he fires back to rock Gonzalez with a left hand down the middle. A leg kick from Miller forces Gonzalez to take his leg back, and he times another left that staggers Gonzalez. Miller continues to find the home for his left hand, rocking the newcomer badly as he goes from a smile to a grimace when the damage is done. Miller continues to rail into his opponent, but Gonzalez ties him up to keep himself in the game. Miller throws him down, blitzes him with a left, a right and a knee, but Gonzalez survives to the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Miller
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Miller
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Miller

Round 2
The lightweights touch gloves to start off the second round, and Gonzalez lands a front kick that connects to the jaw.
When Gonzalez throws a half-hearted reverse crescent kick, “A-10” Miller launches a missile of a left hand that instantly separates Gonzalez from his consciousness. Like a puppet that had its strings cut, Gonzalez falls lifelessly to his knees and crumbles face-first to the ground.
Any follow-up strikes are merely academic as Smith sprints towards the fallen fighter to rescue him from further harm. What a knockout from Jim “Expletive Deleted” Miller, his first since UFC 200 over five years ago, who keeps his career very much alive with a vintage performance. As he explains deftly in his post-fight interview, “old dog, new tricks, I got a knockout.”

The Official Result
Jim Miller def. Erick Gonzalez R2 0:14 via KO (Punch)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 13, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Jim Miller

Angelo picks Jim Miller confidently, noting his veteran savvy, toughness, and superior grappling. Gonzalez is a long striker who relies on range, but Miller will close the distance, make it dirty, and take the fight to the ground where he has a huge advantage. Miller's path is clear: get in Gonzalez's face, grind him against the cage, and work for a submission or control. Angelo likes Miller at 8700 in DraftKings and the more more on monkey knife fight.

Jim Miller wins inside the distance, more more on monkey knife fight
"I love jim miller at 8 700 bucks i do think they'll be takedown control time potentially a submission so jim miller 8 700 is probably pretty good play"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Jim Miller

Big Brady picks Jim Miller by first-round submission, citing Gonzalez's poor takedown defense and Miller's recent first-round submissions. He notes Miller's gas tank is a concern if the fight goes longer, but expects an early finish. Gonzalez has been taken down easily in past fights.

by submission in round 1
"i'm gonna take jim miller here to win i'm gonna take him to win by first round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 13, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Jim Miller

Cody picks Jim Miller to win by submission, noting that Gonzalez has poor grappling and has been wrestle-pounded in the past. He believes Miller's jiu-jitsu will dominate on the ground, and he likes the prop bets of Miller inside the distance, by submission, and a sprinkle on Miller round one. He is less inclined to bet the moneyline at -225 due to Miller's age and recent COVID recovery.

Miller by submission (+240), Miller inside the distance, Miller round one (+400)
"i like jim miller jim miller to win by sub"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 14, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Jim Miller

Daniel picks Jim Miller to win by first-round submission, believing this is Miller's retirement fight. He notes Miller's nasty submission game and ability to go balls-to-the-wall in the first round, though his cardio fades after due to Lyme disease. He expects Miller to take Gonzalez down, take his back, and choke him out, leaving his gloves in the octagon.

First-round submission
"give me jim miller via first round submission"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert picked Oct 12, 2021 (4 days before fight)

The host is conflicted; he sees Fiorot as more technical but questions her grappling and durability against Silva's pressure. He leans toward Silva as a live underdog but ultimately wants to watch and learn. No clear pick is made.

Over 2.5 rounds -120, Fiorot by decision +205, Silva by submission +1100
"i just want to sit back and watch this fight because this for me is the test in terms of seeing where fyro's truly at"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 13, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Jim Miller

Paul picks Jim Miller, emphasizing the massive experience gap and Miller's ability to secure takedowns and control the fight on the ground. He notes that Gonzalez's grappling has let him down repeatedly and that Miller should be able to exploit that. He also mentions that Miller is always in shape despite his age and health issues.

"i do have jim miller"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 12, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Jim Miller

The MMA Guru picks Jim Miller by first-round guillotine choke, citing Gonzalez's lackluster competition and short-notice fight. He notes Miller's experience and ability to beat decent fighters, predicting he will catch Gonzalez with a counter and submit him. He dismisses Gonzalez's record as padded.

first round submission, guillotine choke
"i'm gonna go with jim miller here i think you'll get a guillotine choke"
Expert Picks (6)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 31, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

Angelo is confident in Terrance McKinney despite his recent loss to Drew Dober. He emphasizes that McKinney dropped Dober multiple times and looked incredible before gassing, and believes Erick Gonzalez cannot survive that same onslaught. He expects McKinney to be more reserved but still win, and suggests he could be a parlay piece if his price isn't too high.

If he's at minus six great minus nine leave him out of your parlays
"I expect terence to come out probably be a little more reserved right he's coming off that that was bad that knockout or that stoppage so he'll probably be a little more reserved but he's absolutely the pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 2, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

Big Brady is confident in Terrance McKinney, noting his 100% finish rate and the fact that he is a massive favorite. He highlights McKinney's power and underrated wrestling, and points out that Erick Gonzalez has poor takedown defense and has been submitted twice. He predicts a first-round submission win for McKinney, though he acknowledges that if the fight extends, McKinney has slowed down in the past.

first round submission prediction, 100% finish rate mentioned
"i will take mckinney to win by submission but i do think mckinney whatever he does i think he does it pretty quickly here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 3, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

Cody also picks McKinney, highlighting his explosive power and wrestling. He notes that McKinney's reckless style could lead to a counter, but Gonzalez has been knocked out before. Cody thinks the fight won't go past one round, but the odds offer no value. He jokes about McKinney's motivation to finish quickly.

McKinney wins in round 1 (minus 200); under 1.5 rounds (minus 245)
"McKinney probably finishes him in round one... at minus 1000 it adds nothing to my top ticket."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 3, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

Daniel Levi picks McKinney but refuses to lay -900, citing McKinney's one-round cardio and tendency to fade or get caught if the fight extends. He acknowledges McKinney's athleticism and speed should overwhelm Gonzalez, but the price is too steep for a fighter with cardio issues. He recommends passing on the bet.

"I got Terence McKinney I'm just not willing to lay minus 900"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 3, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

Paul picks McKinney but notes the line is unbeatable. He mentions McKinney's all-action style and tendency to finish early. Paul is concerned about McKinney's recklessness but believes he will likely finish Gonzalez in the first round. He suggests the over 1.5 rounds at +195 as a potential play if Gonzalez can survive.

McKinney wins in round 1 (steam to -250); over 1.5 rounds at +195
"McKinney probably finishes him in round one... it's a straight up pass."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 1, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

The MMA Guru picks Terrance McKinney by first-round TKO, calling Erick Gonzalez a layup. He notes Gonzalez's KO loss to Jim Miller and lackluster regional record. He believes McKinney's speed and explosiveness will overwhelm Gonzalez, who may freeze up after his first KO loss. He acknowledges Gonzalez's size and reach but thinks McKinney is too quick.

first round tko
"i'm picking terrence mckinney shock over eric gonzalez... i think it's a recipe for eric gonzalez to freeze up early on and then get smacked out by terence mckinney by tko in the first round"