UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley · Aug 19, 2023 · Middleweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley Next Fight
Age 34
Height 6' 3"
Reach 75.0"
Weight 185 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 38
Height 6' 1"
Reach 77.0"
Weight 185 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Gregory Rodrigues
5.53 SLpM
51.0% Str. Acc.
4.78 SApM
50.0% Str. Def.
1.9 TD Avg
34.0% TD Acc.
75.0% TD Def.
0.4 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Denis Tiuliulin
3.61 SLpM
41.0% Str. Acc.
5.23 SApM
38.0% Str. Def.
0.96 TD Avg
42.0% TD Acc.
72.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Gregory Rodrigues
Moneyline
BetRivers -375
KO/TKO
BetRivers +190
Submission
BetMGM +175
Decision
FanDuel +750
Denis Tiuliulin
Moneyline
FanDuel +310
KO/TKO
FanDuel +420
Submission
BetWay +2200
Decision
BetRivers +1600
Gregory Rodrigues - Fight History
KO R1 1:47 · UFC 326 · Mar 07, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Gregory Rodrigues 1 2 of 6 33% 2 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Brunno Ferreira 0 2 of 5 40% 2 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Gregory Rodrigues 1 2 of 6 33% 2 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Brunno Ferreira 0 2 of 5 40% 2 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Gregory Rodrigues 2 of 6 33% 1 of 4 1 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Brunno Ferreira 2 of 5 40% 1 of 2 0 of 1 1 of 2 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Gregory Rodrigues 2 of 6 33% 1 of 4 1 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Brunno Ferreira 2 of 5 40% 1 of 2 0 of 1 1 of 2 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2026 (27 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

Angelo notes that both fighters are similar with heavy hands and poor cardio, but Gregory is larger and has better fight IQ. He expects Gregory to wrestle early to avoid another knockout, as Bruno knocked him out in their first fight when Gregory was ill-prepared. He believes Gregory will slow the pace and win on the scorecards.

over 1.5 rounds
"I think Gregory is going to keep this pace slow, stay on the outside... I actually think this could be a very interesting fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

Big Brady picks Gregory Rodrigues over Brunno Ferreira in a rematch. He notes Ferreira knocked out Rodrigues in the first fight, but Rodrigues has elite jiu-jitsu that he underutilizes. Brady believes if Rodrigues fights smart, mixes in takedowns, and uses his grappling, he can submit Ferreira, who gassed badly against Abus Magomedov. He predicts a second-round submission, warning that if Rodrigues stands and bangs, he could get knocked out again.

Rodrigues by second round submission
"Give me Gregory Rodriguez to win this fight. I'll take him to win this fight by second round submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 4, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Brunno Ferreira

Cody also picks Ferreira, highlighting Rodrigues' defensive flaws and tendency to gas. He notes Ferreira's speed and power, and that Rodrigues has been knocked out before. He expects Ferreira to land a big shot and finish.

"I got a slight dog play here on Bruno Ferrer."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Mar 6, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

Connor picks Rodrigues despite the first loss, noting that Rodrigues was styling on Ferreira before getting caught. He believes Rodrigues's improved grappling and willingness to test Ferreira's submission defense will be key. However, he acknowledges that Ferreira's one-punch power and Rodrigues's tendency to fade late make this a risky pick. Connor sees it as a well-matched rematch where either outcome is possible.

Odds: Ferreira opened at +130, now +145; Rodrigues opened at -150, now -170.
"I am going to pick Gregory Rodriguez, even despite the first loss. He should absolutely style on Bruno Fajeta again, but it's middleweight. So he might just get clocked again."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Mar 3, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Brunno Ferreira

Daniel Vreeland picks Brunno Ferreira as a plus-170 underdog, believing the odds should be closer. He notes that Ferreira knocked out Rodrigues in their first fight and has power that can end the fight early. Vreeland acknowledges both fighters have cardio issues and one-shot power, but he likes the value on Ferreira.

"Give me Bruno Ferrer to come out here and uh make history once again and get this upset."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Mar 1, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Brunno Ferreira

James picks Brunno Ferreira as the value side, noting that Ferreira already knocked out Rodrigues in their first fight and has the power to do it again. He highlights Rodrigues' poor chin and tendency to get hit, while Ferreira's leaping left hook is a dangerous weapon. James admits he is not confident but cannot trust Rodrigues at minus-200 odds due to his chin issues. He expects Ferreira to win by KO, likely early.

"I'm going to ultimately pick Bruno Ferrer just because I just feel like, you know, underdog price, pretty big underdog price. He's already knocked him out once."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 3, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

Rodrigues has a height and reach advantage and will play it safe early before finding a knockout as Ferreira slows. He learned from the first fight and should be more assertive. The fight finishes inside the distance. Waiting for a better line is advised.

Rodrigues by knockout; fight inside distance
"I think this fight finishes inside the distance. I think wins, but I would think twice in terms of taking him at Chalk."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 4, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Brunno Ferreira

Paul picks Ferreira as a dog, citing Rodrigues' durability issues and poor head movement. He notes Ferreira's speed and power, and that he already knocked out Rodrigues. He sees value at plus money and expects a knockout.

"It's dog or pass here for me."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Brunno Ferreira

The MMA Guru picks Brunno Ferreira, citing his previous KO win over Rodrigues. He believes Ferreira's power and finishing ability will be too much, and that Rodrigues is chinny. He predicts a KO win, possibly in a scrappy fight.

KO victory
"Bruno Fea KO victory."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Mar 6, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

Zane picks Rodrigues, echoing Connor's reasoning. He notes that Rodrigues has become more willing to grapple and can use ground-and-pound to finish. Zane points out that Ferreira's game is limited to wild overhands and sacrificial submissions, and Rodrigues should be able to avoid the big shot if he fights smart. However, he admits that Ferreira's power makes it a dangerous fight.

Odds: Ferreira +145, Rodrigues -170.
"I am going to pick Gregory Rodriguez, even despite the first loss."
WIN vs Roman Kopylov
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 322 · Nov 15, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Roman Kopylov 0 52 of 105 49% 54 of 109 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:35
Gregory Rodrigues 0 90 of 173 52% 91 of 174 0 of 4 0% 1 0 0:24
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Roman Kopylov 0 9 of 16 56% 11 of 19 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:31
Gregory Rodrigues 0 20 of 35 57% 20 of 35 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Roman Kopylov 0 23 of 36 63% 23 of 37 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:04
Gregory Rodrigues 0 37 of 70 52% 38 of 71 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:24
3 Roman Kopylov 0 20 of 53 37% 20 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Gregory Rodrigues 0 33 of 68 48% 33 of 68 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Roman Kopylov 52 of 105 49% 35 of 80 9 of 16 8 of 9 51 of 103 1 of 1 0 of 1
Gregory Rodrigues 90 of 173 52% 59 of 133 28 of 37 3 of 3 84 of 164 6 of 9 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Roman Kopylov 9 of 16 56% 2 of 5 2 of 6 5 of 5 9 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 1
Gregory Rodrigues 20 of 35 57% 12 of 25 7 of 9 1 of 1 19 of 34 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Roman Kopylov 23 of 36 63% 20 of 32 3 of 4 0 of 0 22 of 35 1 of 1 0 of 0
Gregory Rodrigues 37 of 70 52% 26 of 55 10 of 14 1 of 1 32 of 62 5 of 8 0 of 0
3 Roman Kopylov 20 of 53 37% 13 of 43 4 of 6 3 of 4 20 of 53 0 of 0 0 of 0
Gregory Rodrigues 33 of 68 48% 21 of 53 11 of 14 1 of 1 33 of 68 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Roman Kopylov vs. Gregory Rodrigues
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Rodrigues (-166), Kopylov (+140)

Round 1
Marc Goddard is the referee. Rodrigues probes with a right to the body. The Brazilian counters a kick with a crisp straight right. Another straight right splits the guard of Kopylov. Rodrigues follows a right hand with a hard body kick. Rodrigues continues to fire off his right hand and now he tries a takedown, which Kopylov defends. Kopylov with a straight left to the body, his first meaningful offense of the fight. Rodrigues with a hard body kick and then a right to the body as well. Every punch from Rodrigues is taking effect so far. Kopylov attacks the lead leg and Rodrigues answers with an inside leg kick. Rodrigues just misses a head kick. The Brazilian steps in with a knee to the body and he shoots for a takedown. Kopylov reverses it with a hip toss. He stands over Rodrigues as time ticks down, but he doesn’t land anything of note before the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rodrigues
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rodrigues
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rodrigues

Round 2
Rodrigues opens with a 1-2. Kopylov lands a left, but Rodrigues answers. They go to the ground and Kopylov scrambles out of a leg lock. Rodrigues shoots again against the fence, but Kopylov shoves him away. Rodrigues backs up Kopylov with a knee to the body. Kopylov sticks a jab. Rodrigues with a jab of his own. Rodrigues stalks his opponent, drawing mbig movements with feints. Rodrigues with a solid jab. Kopylov catches a kick and fires off a series of right hands before releasing the limb. Rodrigues moves in behind a right hand. Rodrigues marches forward, throwing straight punches, sometimes mixing in body shots. Kopylov with a left to the body. Rodrigues follows a knee with a series of hard right hands. “Robocop” keeps the pressure on as Kopylov remains on his bike. Rodrigues lands a jab followed by a right to the body. Kopylov remains on the defensive. Rodrigues lands a body kick. Kopylov catches it and shoves his foe down. A right by Rodrigues makes Kopylov stumble. Rodrigues stalks the Russian, landing heavy blows along the way. Kopylov unleashes a quick head kick, but it can’t quite find the mark. They clinch late in the round. Rodrigues lands a knee and misses a spinning attack as time expires.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rodrigues
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rodrigues
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rodrigues

Round 3
Rodrigues pumps his jab. Kopylov probes with a leg kick. Another jab lands for the Brazilian. Kopylov flicks out a jab but eats a right hand. Kopylov leaps in with a left that briefly buckles Rodrigues. Rodrigues recovers quickly, but that was Kopylov’s best attack so far. Rodrigues goes back to the well with a powerful 1-2. “Robocop” follows up with a right to the body, then a high kick that slams off Kopylov’s arm. Kopylov presses forward and lands a left to the body. Kopylov is on the attack, and he leaps in with another left. Rodrigues fires a right to the body. They trade on the inside and both men land. Rodrigues chops away with low kicks. Rodrigues stays busy with 1-2s, but Kopylov with another rapid left hand that finds the mark. Rodrigues continues to attack the body with his right hand while also throwing 1-2s upstairs. Kopylov is still hunting for that left hand. Kopylov fires another head kick, but Rodrigues blocks it. A quick right hand finds the mark for the Russian. Kopylov can’t get through with a head kick but ends the contest with a spinning backfist.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov (29-28 Rodrigues)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov (29-28 Rodrigues)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov (29-28 Rodrigues)

The Official Result
Gregory Rodrigues def. Roman Kopylov via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28) R3 5:00
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

Angelo picks Gregory Rodrigues, citing his well-rounded skills, power, and BJJ black belt. He believes Rodrigues will use takedowns to control the fight, similar to his win over Christian Leroy Duncan. He notes Roman Kopylov is a good kickboxer but vulnerable to grappling. Angelo's only concern is Rodrigues' tendency to bleed easily.

"I think Gregory Rodriguez makes this a very tricky fight for Roman Copilov... I do think Gregory wins this fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

Big Brady picks Gregory Rodrigues, highlighting his elite jiu-jitsu and ground game, which he believes will be too much for Roman Kopylov, who has poor grappling. He notes Kopylov was submitted by a kickboxer and dominated on the ground by Albert Duraev. However, Brady worries about Rodrigues's tendency to stand and trade, given his questionable chin (four knockout losses). He predicts a first-round submission if Rodrigues uses his grappling, but acknowledges the risk of a knockout loss if he brawls.

first round submission
"I'm going to go Rodriguez first round submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

Cody picks Rodrigues, citing his power, wrestling, and aggression. He notes that Kopylov has struggled against grapplers and has poor takedown defense. Cody believes that Rodrigues will pressure Kopylov, take him down, and either finish or win a decision. He also mentions that Rodrigues has looked good in recent fights and is a reliable favorite.

"I like Robocop Rodrigues."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Nov 14, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Roman Kopylov

Connor picks Kopylov but calls it a coin flip. He notes that Kopylov is a sharpshooter who can target all levels and that Rodrigues gives openings for low kicks and head kicks. However, he acknowledges that Rodrigues has excellent wrestling and top game, and that Kopylov's only way to stop the pressure is to kill Rodrigues on the counter.

Odds: Kopylov opened -110, currently +165. Connor says 'it's a coin flip for me'.
"I think just to keep it interesting, I'll take Kapilov."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

Daniel favors Rodrigues despite disliking his unsportsmanlike follow-up punch in his last fight. He believes Rodrigues has more ways to win, with power in his hands and world-class jiu-jitsu, while Kopylov has been submitted by lesser grapplers. He also questions Kopylov's chin and ability to handle pressure.

"I do favor Hoboc in this one, man. I think he's got more ways to win."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Nov 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Roman Kopylov

Lucrative James picks Roman Kopylov to win by knockout, going against the grain. He believes Kopylov's fast boxing and head kicks can exploit Rodrigues' poor chin and cardio. He notes Rodrigues' grappling advantage but thinks Kopylov's takedown defense will hold up early, allowing him to land a knockout. He acknowledges this is a risky pick but sees value in the underdog.

by KO
"Roman Copilov wins this fight. Brutal knockout."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

Rodriguez is surprisingly not a bigger favorite. He walks Kopylov down like Paulo Costa did, throws big shots, gets his respect, and closes the show with a knockout.

knockout
"I think Hodriguez will do exactly what Paulo Costa did. Walk Copilov down, throw big shots, get his respect, and I think this time actually Rodriguez can close the show and win this fight by knockout."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

Paul agrees with Cody, noting that Rodrigues is a BJJ black belt with power and that Kopylov has gassed when taken down. He points out that Kopylov's last win was against a faded Paulo Costa and that he has been submitted by grapplers. Paul thinks Rodrigues will control the fight and win by decision or TKO.

"if G Rod is controlling you and he's forcing the issue, well, you know what's even more tiring than trying to hold somebody down."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

The Guru picks Gregory Rodrigues to win by TKO in round one or two. He highlights Rodrigues' pressure, power, and body work, which should overwhelm Kopylov, who has shown vulnerability to pressure. Kopylov's long torso makes him susceptible to body shots, and Rodrigues' recent KO win over Jack Hermansson shows his form. The Guru expects an early finish.

TKO in round 1 or 2
"I'm going to go with Gregory Rodriguez backing up Roman Copilov and finishing him in round one or two."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

Zane picks Rodrigues, citing his relentless pressure and power. He acknowledges that Kopylov is a sharpshooter who can stop Rodrigues with counters, but believes Rodrigues will likely get the driver's seat and crush Kopylov. Zane notes that Kopylov falls apart when pressured hard enough.

Odds: Rodrigues opened -110, currently -190. Kopylov opened -110, jumped to +135, currently +165.
"I got to take Rodriguez in that fight, you know?"
KO R1 4:21 · UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · Jun 28, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jack Hermansson 0 30 of 55 54% 30 of 55 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Gregory Rodrigues 1 18 of 63 28% 18 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jack Hermansson 0 30 of 55 54% 30 of 55 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Gregory Rodrigues 1 18 of 63 28% 18 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jack Hermansson 30 of 55 54% 24 of 49 2 of 2 4 of 4 30 of 54 0 of 1 0 of 0
Gregory Rodrigues 18 of 63 28% 11 of 54 6 of 8 1 of 1 18 of 63 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jack Hermansson 30 of 55 54% 24 of 49 2 of 2 4 of 4 30 of 54 0 of 1 0 of 0
Gregory Rodrigues 18 of 63 28% 11 of 54 6 of 8 1 of 1 18 of 63 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jun 22, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

Angelo leans Gregory Rodrigues because he believes Rodrigues's power and early success will carry him in a three-round fight, despite his cardio issues. He compares it to Jack Hermansson's win over Joe Pyfer, where Hermansson survived early and took over, but notes that Rodrigues's loss to Jared Cannonier was in the fourth round and Cannonier hits harder. He is cautious because Rodrigues is a -180 favorite with cardio concerns, and he suggests the over 1.5 rounds might be a good bet.

Angelo mentions he is interested in the over 1.5 rounds line if available, and notes that -180 for a guy who just got finished due to cardio is risky.
"Gregory Rodrigues is going to be the pick. I'm a little iffy on bets. Well, maybe we get a one-and-a-half round line."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2025 (7 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

Big Brady likes Rodrigues stylistically, noting his power advantage over Hermansson. He thinks Hermansson's best path is wrestling, but Rodrigues has good takedown defense and is a BJJ black belt. Brady expects the fight to stay standing, where Rodrigues will land harder shots. He references Marvin Vettori knocking down Hermansson as evidence of his chin vulnerability, and picks Rodrigues by second-round knockout.

Rodrigues wins by second round knockout
"I'm going to take Rodriguez to win this fight by second round knockout."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

The host notes Hermansson's long layoff and believes Rodrigues will dictate the pace with power punching and ground control, winning on the scorecards.

win on scorecards
"I think the Rodriguez will be able to dictate the pace with his power punching, but also an ability to take this fight to the ground and grind out Herman Manson leading to Rodriguez winning this fight on the scorecards."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

The host picks Gregory Rodrigues, citing his activity and more intricate striking compared to Hermansson's last opponent. He believes Rodrigues' grappling is good enough to neutralize Hermansson's, and that Hermansson's long layoff is a concern. He predicts a TKO win for Rodrigues in the first or second round.

TKO
"I'm going to go with him over Jack Manson here just because of recency. Like he's on the grind, he's on the hustle, he's on the come up."
LOSS vs Jared Cannonier
KO R4 0:21 · UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues · Feb 15, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jared Cannonier 2 98 of 201 48% 109 of 215 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:09
Gregory Rodrigues 2 93 of 221 42% 95 of 225 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:17
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jared Cannonier 0 22 of 38 57% 31 of 49 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:34
Gregory Rodrigues 2 25 of 66 37% 26 of 68 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:17
2 Jared Cannonier 0 33 of 72 45% 35 of 74 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:18
Gregory Rodrigues 0 25 of 68 36% 26 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Jared Cannonier 1 34 of 78 43% 34 of 79 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:17
Gregory Rodrigues 0 43 of 87 49% 43 of 87 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
4 Jared Cannonier 1 9 of 13 69% 9 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Gregory Rodrigues 0 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jared Cannonier 98 of 201 48% 59 of 157 20 of 23 19 of 21 69 of 161 20 of 25 9 of 15
Gregory Rodrigues 93 of 221 42% 65 of 188 21 of 25 7 of 8 85 of 208 8 of 12 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jared Cannonier 22 of 38 57% 10 of 25 5 of 5 7 of 8 15 of 30 7 of 8 0 of 0
Gregory Rodrigues 25 of 66 37% 16 of 53 8 of 11 1 of 2 19 of 56 6 of 9 0 of 1
2 Jared Cannonier 33 of 72 45% 15 of 50 11 of 14 7 of 8 28 of 65 5 of 7 0 of 0
Gregory Rodrigues 25 of 68 36% 16 of 59 5 of 5 4 of 4 25 of 67 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Jared Cannonier 34 of 78 43% 27 of 71 2 of 2 5 of 5 22 of 59 3 of 4 9 of 15
Gregory Rodrigues 43 of 87 49% 33 of 76 8 of 9 2 of 2 41 of 85 2 of 2 0 of 0
4 Jared Cannonier 9 of 13 69% 7 of 11 2 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 7 5 of 6 0 of 0
Gregory Rodrigues 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

Angelo picks Gregory Rodrigues over Jared Cannonier, citing Cannonier's age (40) as a key factor. He notes that Cannonier's chin and speed are declining, and while Cannonier may have early success, Rodrigues has enough power and grappling to turn the fight. Angelo also mentions he might bet the under on 4.5 rounds if the prop is available.

under 4.5 rounds (if available)
"Gregory is the pick and if we get a four and a half round line I I might Hammer that under"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

Big Brady picks Rodrigues by second-round knockout, noting Cannonier's decline in durability and performance. Cannonier was outclassed by Caio Borralho and wobbled by Vettori. Rodrigues is younger and has power, though his own chin is questionable. He expects Rodrigues to land a big shot and finish Cannonier.

knockout in round 2
"give me Ro Rodriguez and I think he stops cider in this fight I give give me Rodriguez by second round knockout"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Feb 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jared Cannonier

Connor picks Jared Cannonier, though hesitantly. He acknowledges Cannonier has lost a step and is on a slide, but believes this is a level of fight Cannonier can still win. He points to Cannonier's hand speed, counter-punching, and ability to time counters against Rodrigues' defensive liabilities. Connor also notes that Cannonier has been competitive with top fighters like Imavov and Bahaio, and that Rodrigues' tendency to get caught by surprise makes him susceptible to Cannonier's power. However, he admits the version of Cannonier that gets big finishes might be gone, and he can also envision Cannonier getting crushed.

Connor mentions that the odds for Rodrigues have moved from -193 to -221, and Cannonier from +147 to +182, and he doesn't think the odds should be getting longer on Cannonier. He notes that the guys who have slept Rodrigues (Bruno Ferreira, Jordan Williams) are not good fighters, implying Cannonier could still do it.
"I still feel inclined to pick Canoneer though."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Feb 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

Lucrative James picks Gregory Rodrigues despite acknowledging his suspect chin, because Jared Cannonier is 40 years old and has taken severe damage in recent fights, especially the brutal KO loss to Caio Borralho just five and a half months ago. He believes Cannonier's age and accumulated punishment make him vulnerable to Rodrigues' power and pressure. However, he notes that Rodrigues gets hit often and has been knocked out by lesser fighters, so he is not fully confident. He also mentions that Cannonier is live for a KO and may play a small prop on Cannonier by KO. He strongly recommends betting 'fight doesn't go to distance' at -250, seeing value there.

Fight doesn't go to distance at -250; under 2.5 rounds at -125; small play on Jared Cannonier by KO
"I'm going to pick Gregory Rodriguez and the reason I'm doing that is because of Jared's age because of the punishment he has took"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2025 (fight day)
Gregory Rodrigues

Cannonier is on a downward slope at nearly 41 years old. Rodrigues will use pace, pressure, and power to take advantage of Cannonier's diminishing durability and speed. Cannonier has been hurt in recent fights, and Rodrigues finishes him in the second or third round.

Rodrigues inside the distance, round 2 or 3
"Look for Rodriguez to utilize a solid pace and pressure and really leaning on that power... I think Rodriguez can put a stamp on this matchup by getting a finish in the second or third round."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

The MMA Guru picks Gregory Rodrigues over Jared Cannonier, citing Cannonier's age (40), recent damage, and lack of recent knockouts. He highlights Rodrigues' size, grappling advantage, power, and youth. He believes Rodrigues has multiple paths to victory: knockout, takedown and ground control, or submission, while Cannonier has fewer options.

"I'm going to trust in Gregory Rodriguez getting this one done"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

Zane picks Gregory Rodrigues because he believes Cannonier has lost a step and no longer has the finishing ability to capitalize on Rodrigues' defensive lapses. He notes that Cannonier's tactical, non-strategic style means he gives opponents infinite chances, and with age and declining durability, those chances are now breaking against him. Zane also highlights Rodrigues' improved wrestling and strategic approach, as seen in the Brad Tavares fight, as key factors. He acknowledges Cannonier could still catch Rodrigues, but trusts the math less for Cannonier now.

Zane mentions that the odds for Rodrigues have moved from -193 to -221, and Cannonier from +147 to +182, and he doesn't think the odds should be getting longer on Cannonier. He notes that the guys who have slept Rodrigues (Bruno Ferreira, Jordan Williams) are not good fighters, implying Cannonier could still do it.
"But now I'm going to pick Gregory Rodriguez because I don't think that Cannon here is ever going to take this fight over from Rodriguez."
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · Jul 27, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Gregory Rodrigues 0 29 of 48 60% 53 of 77 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:45
Christian Leroy Duncan 0 45 of 79 56% 78 of 120 4 of 12 33% 0 0 8:20
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Gregory Rodrigues 0 9 of 19 47% 9 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Christian Leroy Duncan 0 12 of 21 57% 21 of 34 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:01
2 Gregory Rodrigues 0 13 of 17 76% 24 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:25
Christian Leroy Duncan 0 26 of 43 60% 40 of 58 1 of 7 14% 0 0 1:39
3 Gregory Rodrigues 0 7 of 12 58% 20 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:20
Christian Leroy Duncan 0 7 of 15 46% 17 of 28 2 of 4 50% 0 0 3:40
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Gregory Rodrigues 29 of 48 60% 13 of 28 7 of 10 9 of 10 23 of 40 6 of 8 0 of 0
Christian Leroy Duncan 45 of 79 56% 37 of 69 8 of 10 0 of 0 28 of 55 12 of 18 5 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Gregory Rodrigues 9 of 19 47% 3 of 10 2 of 4 4 of 5 9 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
Christian Leroy Duncan 12 of 21 57% 9 of 16 3 of 5 0 of 0 9 of 17 0 of 0 3 of 4
2 Gregory Rodrigues 13 of 17 76% 8 of 11 3 of 4 2 of 2 7 of 10 6 of 7 0 of 0
Christian Leroy Duncan 26 of 43 60% 21 of 38 5 of 5 0 of 0 15 of 27 11 of 16 0 of 0
3 Gregory Rodrigues 7 of 12 58% 2 of 7 2 of 2 3 of 3 7 of 11 0 of 1 0 of 0
Christian Leroy Duncan 7 of 15 46% 7 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 11 1 of 2 2 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jul 21, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Christian Leroy Duncan

Angelo picks Christian Leroy Duncan but with very low confidence, calling it a 51% lean. He cites Duncan's sharp striking and hometown advantage, but acknowledges that Gregory Rodrigues is incredibly durable and dangerous. Angelo warns that Duncan can get too comfortable and showboat, potentially getting caught. He describes this as a very tough fight to pick.

"I'm gonna pick clld because of the sharp striking and the hometown Advantage but he could be a landmine"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Christian Leroy Duncan

Cody picks Christian Leroy Duncan, citing his superior striking, footwork, and precision. He notes that Gregory Rodrigues has a suspect chin and has been knocked out multiple times when standing. Cody believes Duncan can knock him out if Rodrigues chooses to brawl, but acknowledges that Rodrigues could win by grappling. However, he thinks Rodrigues is likely to engage in a striking battle, which favors Duncan.

Christian Leroy Duncan by TKO
"I'm going to go Duncan but you know at the end of the day when you look at like which other these underdogs do you not mind you didn't piay KCK them but it's like I I see the path …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

Daniel acknowledges Christian Leroy Duncan's athleticism and flashy style but thinks Gregory Rodrigues has more paths to victory: decision, submission, or knockout. He notes Rodrigues' power, durability, and Jiu-Jitsu, while Duncan may be 'kill or bust.' He is hesitant due to Rodrigues' defensive flaws and stiff movement.

"I'm going to pick him in the spot but I'm very you know I acknowledge the fact that Leroy Duncan is special"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jul 25, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

Daniel picks Gregory Rodrigues (RoboCop), impressed by his knockout of Brad Tavares and his takedown ability. He questions Duncan's competition (exhausted Claudio Ribeiro, Dennis Tiuliulin) and notes that Duncan struggled against Armen Petrosyan. He trusts Rodrigues' power and wrestling, and notes Rodrigues has four knockouts in his last five fights.

"I'm going hobocop here for sure"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Jul 25, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Christian Leroy Duncan

Jeff picks Christian Leroy Duncan, believing he will knock out Rodrigues. He notes that Rodrigues gets hurt in every fight and Duncan has shown power. He cites Duncan's four-inch reach advantage and thinks Duncan's striking will be the difference.

Christian Leroy Duncan via knockout +150
"I'm taking CD I think he's going to knock him out as well hobocop gets caught a lot"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Christian Leroy Duncan

Paul also picks Duncan, noting that the fight ending inside the distance is likely. He points out that Rodrigues' chin has been checked many times and that Duncan has never been finished. Paul believes Duncan will knock out Rodrigues, but he also considers the possibility of Rodrigues using grappling, which could expose Duncan's wrestling. He plans to bet on the fight ending inside the distance.

Fight ends inside the distance
"I think the most likely bet that I may add to some like long parlays and stuff his fight ends inside the distance here that's like minus two that's minus 220."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 22, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

The MMA Guru picks Gregory Rodrigues, citing his grappling edge and KO power. He notes that Rodrigues has better takedowns and can out-grapple Christian Leroy Duncan, who may struggle with grappling defense. The Guru also believes Rodrigues has more punching power and that Duncan hasn't faced someone with that level of power. He references Duncan's fight against Arman Petrosyan, where he was taken down, and suggests Rodrigues can replicate that success.

"I'm going to go with Gregory Rodriguez man I'm gonna pick Gregory Rodriguez I think he's got if there's anyone going to be out grappling the other here it's going to be Rodriguez getting takedowns on Christian Leroy Duncan"
WIN vs Brad Tavares
TKO (punches) R3 0:55 · UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer · Feb 10, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Gregory Rodrigues 0 37 of 84 44% 42 of 90 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Brad Tavares 0 71 of 123 57% 79 of 135 2 of 6 33% 0 0 3:18
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Gregory Rodrigues 0 14 of 30 46% 19 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Brad Tavares 0 25 of 49 51% 29 of 55 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:56
2 Gregory Rodrigues 0 18 of 39 46% 18 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Brad Tavares 0 22 of 40 55% 26 of 46 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:22
3 Gregory Rodrigues 0 5 of 15 33% 5 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Brad Tavares 0 24 of 34 70% 24 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Gregory Rodrigues 37 of 84 44% 28 of 70 4 of 9 5 of 5 36 of 83 1 of 1 0 of 0
Brad Tavares 71 of 123 57% 53 of 102 8 of 9 10 of 12 64 of 114 7 of 9 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Gregory Rodrigues 14 of 30 46% 10 of 24 1 of 3 3 of 3 14 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
Brad Tavares 25 of 49 51% 19 of 41 4 of 5 2 of 3 20 of 43 5 of 6 0 of 0
2 Gregory Rodrigues 18 of 39 46% 14 of 32 2 of 5 2 of 2 17 of 38 1 of 1 0 of 0
Brad Tavares 22 of 40 55% 13 of 30 3 of 3 6 of 7 20 of 37 2 of 3 0 of 0
3 Gregory Rodrigues 5 of 15 33% 4 of 14 1 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Brad Tavares 24 of 34 70% 21 of 31 1 of 1 2 of 2 24 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 4, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

Angelo describes Gregory Rodrigues as a powerful striker with a BJJ black belt and good takedown defense, and notes he is a threat everywhere. Brad Tavares is tough and experienced but not dangerous, with only two finishes in 15 UFC wins. Angelo believes Rodrigues' forward pressure and power will win the fight, likely by decision due to Tavares' durability.

"Gregory Rodriguez is going to win this fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 5, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

Big Brady picks Gregory Rodrigues to win by second-round knockout. He notes that Rodrigues has power and durability issues, but Tavares has no finishing ability and is getting older. He expects Rodrigues to march forward and land a big shot, knocking out Tavares. He mentions that Tavares couldn't finish 41-year-old Matt Wyman, which was a terrible look.

second round knockout
"give me Rodriguez here I'll take him to win this fight by second round knockdown"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

Cody picks Rodrigues, noting Tavares lacks power and has not knocked anyone out in years. He thinks Rodrigues' size and pressure will be too much, and that Tavares' low volume and lack of finishing ability play into Rodrigues' hands. Cody expects a decision win for Rodrigues, possibly 29-28 or 30-27.

"Rodriguez is the pick for me"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Feb 5, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Brad Tavares

Tavares has a striking advantage and solid takedown defense. He should be able to control the fight with leg kicks and counter striking. Rodrigues may strike himself exhausted trying to finish. Tavares' durability is a non-issue, and his losses are to top-tier competition. At +195, this is a no-brainer spot for the veteran to win by decision.

"I'm going to lean with Tavaris here the veteran experience the Striking Advantage hopefully his durability holds up which I believe again is a nonissue and at plus 195 no brainer spot here give me the veteran brat tarz to …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

Paul agrees, calling Tavares a gatekeeper who doesn't pose many threats. He notes Tavares' lack of knockout power and that Rodrigues is huge for the weight class. Paul thinks Rodrigues' grappling and pressure will be decisive, and that Tavares' takedown defense may not hold up. He expects a clear decision for Rodrigues.

"I'm GNA have to agree as well Brad tarz is very serviceable like you said but uh he's he's a gatekeeper"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

The MMA Guru picks Gregory Rodrigues with high confidence, criticizing Brad Tavares for not finishing a compromised Chris Weidman. He believes Tavares is not high-level and lacks punch power. He expects Rodrigues to find a TKO win on the feet, as he does not think Tavares can put him away.

TKO win
"I'm going to go Gregory Rodriguez no doubt in my mind about this either... I'm gonna side with Gregory Rodriguez finding some kind of TKO win over Brad Tavarez on the feet."
KO (elbows) R1 1:43 · UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley · Aug 19, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Gregory Rodrigues 0 5 of 6 83% 6 of 8 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:47
Denis Tiuliulin 0 2 of 7 28% 3 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Gregory Rodrigues 0 5 of 6 83% 6 of 8 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:47
Denis Tiuliulin 0 2 of 7 28% 3 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Gregory Rodrigues 5 of 6 83% 4 of 5 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 4
Denis Tiuliulin 2 of 7 28% 2 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Gregory Rodrigues 5 of 6 83% 4 of 5 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 4
Denis Tiuliulin 2 of 7 28% 2 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Aug 13, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

Angelo picks Gregory Rodrigues but with low confidence, noting that the fight should be closer to a pick'em than the current odds. He believes Rodrigues has a significant ground advantage and can submit Tiuliulin if he shoots takedowns. However, he worries that Rodrigues might choose to slug it out, which could lead to another knockout loss. He notes Tiuliulin's power fades over three rounds and he has nothing on the ground.

"Gregory Rodriguez is going to be the pick very low confidence pick because I want him to shoot takedowns... but if Gregory wants to come in there and Slug It Out he can end up with a really bad night …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 12, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

Big Brady confidently picks Gregory Rodrigues to win by first-round submission, emphasizing Rodrigues' elite jiu-jitsu against Denis Tiuliulin's poor ground game. He notes Tiuliulin has been submitted in four of his seven losses and looked lost on the mat against Jun Yong Park. Brady worries Rodrigues might stand and bang, but if he grapples, the fight ends quickly.

win by submission, round 1
"I'll say he grapples I'll say he destroys Dennis to a Lewin in the first five minutes on the mat first round sub for Gregory Rodriguez"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

Cody expects Rodrigues to take the fight to the ground and submit Tiuliulin, who has poor grappling defense. He notes Rodrigues has questionable ring IQ and may stand and trade, but if he wrestles, he wins easily. He predicts a rear-naked choke submission in the first or second round.

Rodrigues by submission; under 1.5 rounds; fight time under 5 minutes
"I would say this fight hits the ground Greg Rodriguez puts that rear [__] choke into play so sign me up for rear naked choke first round submission"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 17, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

Daniel Levi picks Gregory Rodrigues, expecting him to grapple more after his last knockout loss. He notes that Rodrigues has heavy hands and a dangerous submission game, and that Tiuliulin is vulnerable on the ground, having been submitted before. Levi thinks Rodrigues will submit Tiuliulin in round one or two, but acknowledges that Tiuliulin is dangerous on the feet and has a better chin. He played under 1.5 rounds and submission props.

Under 1.5 rounds; submission in round 1 or 2
"I think he's actually gonna grapple more this fight... I think he's gonna grapple here and submit Dennis in round one or two"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Aug 18, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

Lucrative James picks Gregory Rodrigues to win, likely by finish from top position. He acknowledges Rodrigues' poor chin but believes he will overwhelm Tiuliulin. He also likes a prop bet on Tiuliulin by KO due to Rodrigues' chin issues, calling it a system play.

Denis Tiuliulin by KO (plus 500)
"I'm picking Gregory Rodriguez to win this fight I don't mind the dentist by KO shot"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

Rodrigues is a high-level BJJ black belt with improving striking. Tiuliulin struggles with grapplers, as seen in his recent losses. Rodrigues will take him down and dominate from top position, likely finishing inside the distance. The moneyline is worth the chalk, but the finish prop offers a discount.

Rodrigues wins inside distance
"I'm taking Rodriguez to win this fight very easily and I think he does it inside the distance especially if you want to get a bit of a discount on that money line"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

The MMA Guru picks Gregory Rodrigues, though he notes if the odds become ridiculous, betting on Tiuliulin might not be bad. He thinks Rodrigues can win on the feet or by taking the fight to the ground if needed. He criticizes Tiuliulin's hittable style and compares it unfavorably to Diaz/Covington at higher weights. He predicts a KO win for Rodrigues.

KO
"I think Gregory Rodriguez gets this one done by KO"
LOSS vs Brunno Ferreira
KO (punch) R1 4:13 · UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill · Jan 21, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Brunno Ferreira 0 21 of 41 51% 21 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Gregory Rodrigues 1 22 of 45 48% 23 of 46 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Brunno Ferreira 0 21 of 41 51% 21 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Gregory Rodrigues 1 22 of 45 48% 23 of 46 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Brunno Ferreira 21 of 41 51% 16 of 35 5 of 6 0 of 0 19 of 39 2 of 2 0 of 0
Gregory Rodrigues 22 of 45 48% 15 of 37 2 of 3 5 of 5 20 of 43 1 of 1 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Brunno Ferreira 21 of 41 51% 16 of 35 5 of 6 0 of 0 19 of 39 2 of 2 0 of 0
Gregory Rodrigues 22 of 45 48% 15 of 37 2 of 3 5 of 5 20 of 43 1 of 1 1 of 1
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

Big Brady picks Rodrigues to win by first-round knockout, noting he is levels above Ferreira. He highlights Rodrigues' impressive wins over Jung Young Park and Julian Marquez, and his ability to overcome adversity. He doubts Ferreira can take Rodrigues down or have success on the mat, as Rodrigues has legit BJJ. Ferreira's only path is a knockout on the feet, which is unlikely.

first round knockout
"I'm gonna take Rodriguez to win this fight I'll take him to win by first round knockout I think he's gonna be levels above Bruno Ferreira in this matchup"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jan 18, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Brunno Ferreira

Cody picks Brunno Ferreira as a dog, noting he bet him at +260. He thinks Ferreira has power and a puncher's chance, and that the line is too wide. He acknowledges Ferreira is undersized and making a short-notice debut, but likes his skills. He says Gregory Rodrigues has cardio and wrestling advantages, but Ferreira could catch him early. He admits it's a risky bet but likes the value.

bet Ferreira at +260; mentions Ferreira's power and short notice
"I took a shot on Ferreira here he's way undersized he's like five foot ten he's very they call him like the Brazilian Hulk"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 19, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

Connor agrees, noting Rodrigues is a much cleaner puncher and has a size advantage. He mentions Ferreira is compact and hard to submit, but Rodrigues is more likely to win the exchanges.

"Gregory Rodriguez has a lot more range and size on him and every bit of willingness to stand in and create those car crash moments."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 18, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

Paul picks Gregory Rodrigues, noting his size, cardio, and wrestling advantages. He says Rodrigues can take Ferreira down and control him, and that Ferreira's takedown defense is poor. He mentions Rodrigues' durability and ability to fight through adversity. He thinks Ferreira is too much too soon on short notice. He acknowledges Rodrigues' tendency to brawl but thinks he will win.

mentions Rodrigues' wrestling and cardio; says Ferreira is a first-round finisher with suspect cardio
"I go with like likelihood like what's the likelihood I don't care what the odds are what's the likelihood or like let's say it was 65 well that's good enough for me I would take Gregory Rodriguez"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

The Guru is confident in Rodrigues, noting Ferreira is stepping in on short notice and tends to swing wildly in the first round. Rodrigues is bigger and has looked good in recent fights, including a close decision against Petrosyan. The Guru predicts Rodrigues will put Ferreira on his ass and find a KO in the first round in a back-and-forth scrap.

KO in first round
"I'm not trusting Bruno for hair stepping in on short notice ... you're trying to throw down with Gregory RoboCop Rodriguez come on brother it ain't gonna work"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 19, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

Zane picks Rodrigues because he is bigger, more experienced, and technically superior. He notes Ferreira is a wild brawler who creates 50/50 car crashes, but Rodrigues is a cleaner puncher with better defense. He also mentions Rodrigues' wrestling and submission threat, though he may be reckless.

Fight doesn't go to decision -550, Under 2.5 rounds -325, Rodrigues by KO/TKO +100
"I take Gregory Rodriguez. That's really it."
Denis Tiuliulin - Fight History
LOSS vs Sedriques Dumas
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · Aug 03, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Sedriques Dumas 0 49 of 88 55% 95 of 140 3 of 10 30% 0 0 6:00
Denis Tiuliulin 0 26 of 70 37% 183 of 246 3 of 5 60% 0 0 2:27
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Sedriques Dumas 0 6 of 10 60% 35 of 41 2 of 4 50% 0 0 3:22
Denis Tiuliulin 0 3 of 7 42% 44 of 53 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:28
2 Sedriques Dumas 0 26 of 40 65% 39 of 57 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:38
Denis Tiuliulin 0 10 of 24 41% 116 of 136 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Sedriques Dumas 0 17 of 38 44% 21 of 42 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Denis Tiuliulin 0 13 of 39 33% 23 of 57 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:59
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Sedriques Dumas 49 of 88 55% 28 of 66 9 of 10 12 of 12 40 of 79 1 of 1 8 of 8
Denis Tiuliulin 26 of 70 37% 10 of 49 13 of 18 3 of 3 24 of 67 2 of 2 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Sedriques Dumas 6 of 10 60% 3 of 7 1 of 1 2 of 2 5 of 9 1 of 1 0 of 0
Denis Tiuliulin 3 of 7 42% 1 of 5 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 6 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Sedriques Dumas 26 of 40 65% 13 of 27 4 of 4 9 of 9 18 of 32 0 of 0 8 of 8
Denis Tiuliulin 10 of 24 41% 3 of 13 6 of 10 1 of 1 9 of 23 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Sedriques Dumas 17 of 38 44% 12 of 32 4 of 5 1 of 1 17 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
Denis Tiuliulin 13 of 39 33% 6 of 31 5 of 6 2 of 2 13 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Sedriques Dumas vs. Denis Tiuliulin
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Dumas (-218), Tiuliulin (+180)

Round 1
Fight fans on the West Coast of the U.S. will be having combat with coffee this morning, as the UFC takes to Abu Dhabi with a show featuring a number of fighters that struggle to get into the U.S. Plenty of international talent litters this event, with over a dozen countries repped at one point tonight. The fist pairing of the evening is more regular rivalry between America and Russia, as the
much-maligned
Dumas (9-2, 2-2 UFC) battles the struggling Tiuliulin (10-9, 1 NC; 1-4 UFC) in a match that might lead to at least one roster cut. Both men prefer the knockout, with the Evolve Gym fighter more inclined to headhunt. The middleweights choose not to bump fists to start the day’s festivities, and referee Keith Peterson is ready to cut all nonsense out of the equation. They lash out with dueling low kicks, and Dumas whiffs on a head kick. When Dumas fires off a low kick, he is countered by a knee that busts him in the chops. Tiuliulin gets his foe’s attention with a few additional punches, but Dumas surges forward and takes him off his feet with a sudden tackling takedown. Tiuliulin works his way towards the wall to get back up, and Dumas holds him down and knees him in the thigh repeatedly. Peterson asks for more activity, with Dumas in a holding pattern while the Russian is stuck on a knee. Dumas drags Tiuliulin down to his seat for a second, peppering the same spot with knee after short knee. Tiuliulin muscles his way upright, turning the corner and falling on top of his opponent in a surprise reversal. Dumas is on his backside and bursts his way up, and he eats a knee while standing but is no worse for wear as he looks to chuck Tiuliulin to the mat. The American presses his foe to the wire, and Dumas’ knees work the body and thigh until one bangs into the cup. There is a quick apology from Dumas, and Tiuliulin knows it was a total accident and takes a little under 30 seconds to get his wind back. When they resume, Dumas lunges forward with a right hand, and he belts Tiuliulin in the face with a lead-leg high kick. Dumas shoots in on a takedown and gets rebuffed, with Tiuliulin shoving him away and resetting. They fire off alternating jabs when upright, and Tiuliulin reaches with a one-two that leaves him vulnerable for a takedown effort from Dumas that drags Tiuliulin back to a single knee again. Dumas peppers the leg with irritating knees on the welted area until the horn awkwardly blares.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dumas
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Dumas
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Dumas
Advertisement

Round 2
Tiuliulin is the immediate aggressor to begin the second stanza, firing off frantic offense including a knee that catches the chin. Dumas swings back, calming himself down and sticking out jabs, but Tiuliulin stings him with a few more wild strikes before slowing. Dumas flicks out a few more jabs and shoots for a reactive double, and Tiuliulin shuts it down and is pushed away. Dumas blasts the thigh with another kick—the first developed a huge welt in the previous round—and fights behind his sharp jab. Dumas whips a kick up around the guard, and ducks a punch in pursuit of a double. Tiuliulin counters with a step-in knee, and Dumas pushes through it and presses the Russian to the wire. Dumas successfully drags Tiuliulin to his backside, and Tiuliulin is quick to return to a knee and grabs the fence to try to improve position but is warned. Tiuliulin bops his man with a number of meaningless right hands, ones that are technically scoring but have absolutely no effect while Dumas hangs on and knees him. After a lengthy stalemate, Tiuliulin finally works his way upright with the fence behind him and a minute remaining on the clock. Dumas stays pinned to him like a cheap suit, and Peterson splits them apart. Dumas restarts with a big one-two, and Tiuliulin walks him down a shrugs off a right hook. Dumas intercepts the advancing Russian with an uppercut, and his range is giving Tiuliulin fits with jabs and long punches. Dumas lets a knee fly past him, and a body kick grazes him. Dumas ends the round with a reverse crescent kick that ricochets off the raised guard.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dumas
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Dumas
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Dumas

Round 3
Dumas reintroduces himself with piston-like jabs, and Tiuliulin senses he might be down on the scorecards and approaches the last frame as such. Tiuliulin walks Dumas down, loading up on strikes, but it is his partial jump knee that catches Dumas on the jaw. Dumas staggers briefly and gets his bearings, strafing to the side and winging a right hand over the guard. Dumas ducks into a looping uppercut that comes up short, and Tiuliulin walks forward with his own uppercut that also misses the mark. Tiuliulin digs a left to the body and gets out of range of the kicks that fly at him, and Dumas spams body kicks and avoids a huge pair of hooks. Dumas jabs into a takedown, and Tiuliulin flips him all the way over and winds up on top at the three-minute mark. Tiuliulin smothers his man from above, dropping down some sporadic ground-and-pound while staying just busy enough to remain in the position. Dumas hand-fights in hopes of getting a standup, but when that does not come, he kicks off his opponent and explodes to his feet. With 60 seconds left on the clock, Tiuliulin is loaded for bear, but he finds that he has to dodge a quick spinning back fist and stifle a takedown. Tiuliulin is about to unleash a big right hand, but Dumas shoots again on the hips. Tiuliulin gets away from it and leaps with a knee that is way off the target. Tiuliulin cracks Dumas with a right hand, and Dumas appears rocked and totally spent. This does not stop Dumas from pitching kicks and looping strikes back at him. Tiuliulin ends the fight with a final takedown, with Dumas considering a guillotine but not nearly enough gas in the tank to get it.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Tiuliulin (29-28 Dumas)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Tiuliulin (29-28 Dumas)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Tiuliulin (29-28 Dumas)

The Official Result
Sedriques Dumas def. Denis Tiuliulin via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Jul 28, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Sedriques Dumas

Angelo thinks both fighters are not very good, but he gives a slight edge to Dumas because he is tough, can eat shots, and has shown some takedown ability. He notes Tiuliulin has zero grappling and poor technique, but has power. He advises saving money and not betting unless Dumas becomes an underdog.

"I do think that SD Dumas wins this fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Aug 1, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Denis Tiuliulin

Big Brady is shocked that Dumas is a -220 favorite given his poor UFC performances. He notes Dumas has been tentative and unimpressive, while Tiuliulin is more active and lands bigger shots on the feet. However, he has little confidence in Tiuliulin due to his poor grappling defense. He predicts Tiuliulin wins by second-round knockout.

"I'm going to pick Dennis to aloin with little confidence here because you can't have confidence in this guy"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Denis Tiuliulin

Cody picks Denis Tiuliulin, citing Dumas's low volume and poor wrestling. He notes that Dumas has been out struck by lesser opponents and has no power. Cody thinks Tiuliulin has better volume and power, and that Dumas's takedown game is not good enough to neutralize him. He also mentions that Tiuliulin is training under Renat Fakhretdinov and improving his takedown defense.

"I got to go with the rush and Dennis tuning to get the job done."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Jul 31, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Sedriques Dumas

Daniel leans towards Dumas, citing his youth, reach, and wrestling ability against Tiuliulin's subpar grappling. He notes Tiuliulin's durability is waning and that Dumas can grind out a win. However, he warns against laying -235 on Dumas due to his low fight IQ and past struggles, calling it a lean but not a confident bet.

"I'll still pick him to Edge it out but I think it looks like a I don't know about minus EV but I could see it being kind of boring actually"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 1, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Denis Tiuliulin

Tiuliulin is the superior striker if he can show takedown defense. He should be able to touch up Dumas and find a knockout.

"I do think that this is a fight where tulan if he can show off his takedown defense he should be able to be the superior Striker here and I think he can really touch up Dumas and end up …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Denis Tiuliulin

Paul picks Denis Tiuliulin, noting that Dumas has low volume and has not shown knockout power. He thinks Tiuliulin's striking volume and power are superior. Paul also mentions that Dumas's wrestling is not elite and that Tiuliulin can defend takedowns. He believes the line is mispriced and that Tiuliulin has a good chance to win.

"I will be adding tulan to my ticket."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Sedriques Dumas

The MMA Guru picks Sedriques Dumas over Denis Tiuliulin, citing Dumas's youth (28 vs 36), longer reach, and wrestling advantage. He notes Tiuliulin's known weakness in wrestling and expects Dumas to mix in takedowns for control time, leading to a 29-28 decision. He mentions Dumas's recent loss was due to eye pokes, not a true defeat.

"I'm gonna go with sedric Dumas over Dennis Tulin because at this point I just don't trust that Dennis Tulin is making moves in his career that are going to improve his game in any way"
TKO (punches and elbows) R2 4:24 · UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig · Nov 18, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Christian Leroy Duncan 1 65 of 87 74% 90 of 123 0 of 2 0% 0 0 4:51
Denis Tiuliulin 0 30 of 71 42% 37 of 81 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Christian Leroy Duncan 0 13 of 15 86% 38 of 51 0 of 1 0% 0 0 4:37
Denis Tiuliulin 0 7 of 14 50% 12 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Christian Leroy Duncan 1 52 of 72 72% 52 of 72 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:14
Denis Tiuliulin 0 23 of 57 40% 25 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Christian Leroy Duncan 65 of 87 74% 44 of 65 8 of 9 13 of 13 46 of 65 16 of 17 3 of 5
Denis Tiuliulin 30 of 71 42% 19 of 57 6 of 8 5 of 6 26 of 66 4 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Christian Leroy Duncan 13 of 15 86% 6 of 8 3 of 3 4 of 4 6 of 8 7 of 7 0 of 0
Denis Tiuliulin 7 of 14 50% 4 of 11 2 of 2 1 of 1 5 of 11 2 of 3 0 of 0
2 Christian Leroy Duncan 52 of 72 72% 38 of 57 5 of 6 9 of 9 40 of 57 9 of 10 3 of 5
Denis Tiuliulin 23 of 57 40% 15 of 46 4 of 6 4 of 5 21 of 55 2 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Nov 12, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Christian Leroy Duncan

Angelo leans Christian Leroy Duncan, hoping his loss to Arman Petrosian woke him up to be less flashy and more focused. He notes Duncan is the better wrestler and should take the fight to the ground. He expects a finish and does not see it going the distance.

Does not see it going the distance
"I am going to lean Christian Duncan here because this is an MMA fight I do not see this Going the Distance"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 17, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Christian Leroy Duncan

Big Brady thinks Tiuliulin is not UFC caliber, with no striking defense and the worst ground game in the UFC. He sees Duncan having multiple paths: picking him apart and knocking him out, or taking him down and submitting him. He predicts a first-round knockout, noting Tiuliulin's only chance is landing a big shot.

"I think Christian Duncan's the rightful favorite the rightful big favorite and outside of Dennis tuin Landing a big shot I think Christian Duncan should get this done pretty convincingly so I'll say first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Christian Leroy Duncan

Cody picks Christian Leroy Duncan confidently, citing his movement, footwork, and counter-striking. He notes that Tiuliulin is a brawler with poor footwork and cardio, coming in on short notice. Duncan can pick him apart and likely get a TKO. Cody sees this as an excellent stylistic matchup for Duncan.

"Duncan's got to be the play this week"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 17, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Christian Leroy Duncan

Duncan relies on speed, explosiveness, and early power to finish fights. Tiuliulin has been finished by grapplers but Duncan is a striker. Duncan's power and speed should be too much early, leading to a knockout in the first round. However, Duncan is reliant on finishes and may fade if it goes longer. Tiuliulin could make it closer if he survives the early onslaught.

win by knockout
"I still take Duncan to win this matchup and I'll take him to Win It by knockout"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Christian Leroy Duncan

Paul agrees, noting Tiuliulin's rudimentary style and poor grappling. He believes Duncan can hang out at range and avoid danger. Paul mentions Tiuliulin's history of getting finished and expects Duncan to win by TKO or submission.

"I'm with you Christian Loro Duncan"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Christian Leroy Duncan

The MMA Guru picks Christian Leroy Duncan to win by body kick KO in round two. He notes Tiuliulin is hittable and requires breaking opponents, and is coming off a nasty KO. He believes Duncan is a much better striker with good cardio and movement, and that Tiuliulin taking the fight on short notice makes it a no-brainer.

body kick KO round two
"I'm going to go Christian Leroy Duncan over Dennis Tiuliulin... I actually think he'll whoop up Dennis Tiuliulin and maybe finish him with a kick to the body in round two."
KO (elbows) R1 1:43 · UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley · Aug 19, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Gregory Rodrigues 0 5 of 6 83% 6 of 8 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:47
Denis Tiuliulin 0 2 of 7 28% 3 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Gregory Rodrigues 0 5 of 6 83% 6 of 8 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:47
Denis Tiuliulin 0 2 of 7 28% 3 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Gregory Rodrigues 5 of 6 83% 4 of 5 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 4
Denis Tiuliulin 2 of 7 28% 2 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Gregory Rodrigues 5 of 6 83% 4 of 5 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 4
Denis Tiuliulin 2 of 7 28% 2 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Aug 13, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

Angelo picks Gregory Rodrigues but with low confidence, noting that the fight should be closer to a pick'em than the current odds. He believes Rodrigues has a significant ground advantage and can submit Tiuliulin if he shoots takedowns. However, he worries that Rodrigues might choose to slug it out, which could lead to another knockout loss. He notes Tiuliulin's power fades over three rounds and he has nothing on the ground.

"Gregory Rodriguez is going to be the pick very low confidence pick because I want him to shoot takedowns... but if Gregory wants to come in there and Slug It Out he can end up with a really bad night …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 12, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

Big Brady confidently picks Gregory Rodrigues to win by first-round submission, emphasizing Rodrigues' elite jiu-jitsu against Denis Tiuliulin's poor ground game. He notes Tiuliulin has been submitted in four of his seven losses and looked lost on the mat against Jun Yong Park. Brady worries Rodrigues might stand and bang, but if he grapples, the fight ends quickly.

win by submission, round 1
"I'll say he grapples I'll say he destroys Dennis to a Lewin in the first five minutes on the mat first round sub for Gregory Rodriguez"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

Cody expects Rodrigues to take the fight to the ground and submit Tiuliulin, who has poor grappling defense. He notes Rodrigues has questionable ring IQ and may stand and trade, but if he wrestles, he wins easily. He predicts a rear-naked choke submission in the first or second round.

Rodrigues by submission; under 1.5 rounds; fight time under 5 minutes
"I would say this fight hits the ground Greg Rodriguez puts that rear [__] choke into play so sign me up for rear naked choke first round submission"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 17, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

Daniel Levi picks Gregory Rodrigues, expecting him to grapple more after his last knockout loss. He notes that Rodrigues has heavy hands and a dangerous submission game, and that Tiuliulin is vulnerable on the ground, having been submitted before. Levi thinks Rodrigues will submit Tiuliulin in round one or two, but acknowledges that Tiuliulin is dangerous on the feet and has a better chin. He played under 1.5 rounds and submission props.

Under 1.5 rounds; submission in round 1 or 2
"I think he's actually gonna grapple more this fight... I think he's gonna grapple here and submit Dennis in round one or two"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Aug 18, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

Lucrative James picks Gregory Rodrigues to win, likely by finish from top position. He acknowledges Rodrigues' poor chin but believes he will overwhelm Tiuliulin. He also likes a prop bet on Tiuliulin by KO due to Rodrigues' chin issues, calling it a system play.

Denis Tiuliulin by KO (plus 500)
"I'm picking Gregory Rodriguez to win this fight I don't mind the dentist by KO shot"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

Rodrigues is a high-level BJJ black belt with improving striking. Tiuliulin struggles with grapplers, as seen in his recent losses. Rodrigues will take him down and dominate from top position, likely finishing inside the distance. The moneyline is worth the chalk, but the finish prop offers a discount.

Rodrigues wins inside distance
"I'm taking Rodriguez to win this fight very easily and I think he does it inside the distance especially if you want to get a bit of a discount on that money line"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

The MMA Guru picks Gregory Rodrigues, though he notes if the odds become ridiculous, betting on Tiuliulin might not be bad. He thinks Rodrigues can win on the feet or by taking the fight to the ground if needed. He criticizes Tiuliulin's hittable style and compares it unfavorably to Diaz/Covington at higher weights. He predicts a KO win for Rodrigues.

KO
"I think Gregory Rodriguez gets this one done by KO"
LOSS vs JunYong Park
Technical submission (rear-naked choke) R1 4:05 · UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spivac · Feb 04, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
JunYong Park 0 25 of 38 65% 38 of 52 1 of 3 33% 1 0 2:58
Denis Tiuliulin 0 8 of 22 36% 8 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 JunYong Park 0 25 of 38 65% 38 of 52 1 of 3 33% 1 0 2:58
Denis Tiuliulin 0 8 of 22 36% 8 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
JunYong Park 25 of 38 65% 20 of 33 1 of 1 4 of 4 15 of 27 0 of 0 10 of 11
Denis Tiuliulin 8 of 22 36% 4 of 16 4 of 6 0 of 0 8 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 JunYong Park 25 of 38 65% 20 of 33 1 of 1 4 of 4 15 of 27 0 of 0 10 of 11
Denis Tiuliulin 8 of 22 36% 4 of 16 4 of 6 0 of 0 8 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 29, 2023 (6 days before fight)
JunYong Park

Big Brady likes Park's cardio, volume, and underrated grappling. He notes Tiuliulin is hittable with poor striking defense and a suspect gas tank. He expects Park to drown Tiuliulin with grappling and eventually find a submission in the second or third round.

second round submission
"I'm gonna take Park to win by second round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Denis Tiuliulin

Cody picks Tiuliulin at plus money, noting his improved takedown defense and cardio. He thinks Park is prone to brawling and getting knocked out, as seen against Gregory Rodrigues. He expects Tiuliulin to land a knockout, especially if Park engages recklessly. He added Tiuliulin at +190.

"I'm tempted on the underdog here Cody in in Dennis chilulin... I'd be siding with Dennis to lulin on the money line at Plus 180"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
JunYong Park

Connor agrees, highlighting Park's ability to use aggression against Tiuliulin, running him into jabs and countering. He notes that Tiuliulin is heavily rooted and lumbering, making takedowns easier once Park establishes his jab. He has faith in Park's ability to figure out these matchups despite the physical disadvantages.

Odds: Park opened -245, now -214; Tiuliulin opened +185, now +174.
"I have faith in park, but uh, he uh, he certainly deserves matchups more worth the risk."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Denis Tiuliulin

Paul picks Tiuliulin, calling him a greasy underdog. He notes Tiuliulin's power and improved takedown defense, while Park has a tendency to brawl and get knocked out. He expects Tiuliulin to win by knockout, especially if Park engages in a firefight. He likes the plus money.

"I think I'm gonna take Dennis to Lynn as well I don't want a ton of exposure on it but yeah we're gonna need a couple greasy underdogs this one fits the description"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
JunYong Park

Zane expects Park to win due to his crafty striking and excellent ground and pound. He notes that Tiuliulin is a reckless, aggressive striker who is hyper durable but lacks structure. He believes Park's takedowns and positional grappling will be effective, though he acknowledges that Park often faces physical challenges due to size disadvantages.

Odds: Park opened -245, now -214; Tiuliulin opened +185, now +174.
"Picking jen young park, but every every fight for him in the ufc is gonna be a nail biter."
WIN vs Jamie Pickett
TKO (knee and punches) R2 4:52 · UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · Sep 10, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Denis Tiuliulin 2 73 of 161 45% 87 of 178 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:59
Jamie Pickett 0 60 of 111 54% 63 of 114 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:35
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Denis Tiuliulin 0 22 of 76 28% 28 of 82 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Jamie Pickett 0 35 of 60 58% 37 of 62 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:32
2 Denis Tiuliulin 2 51 of 85 60% 59 of 96 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:59
Jamie Pickett 0 25 of 51 49% 26 of 52 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Denis Tiuliulin 73 of 161 45% 53 of 131 19 of 28 1 of 2 52 of 133 15 of 15 6 of 13
Jamie Pickett 60 of 111 54% 44 of 90 13 of 18 3 of 3 56 of 103 4 of 8 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Denis Tiuliulin 22 of 76 28% 16 of 64 5 of 11 1 of 1 22 of 76 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jamie Pickett 35 of 60 58% 23 of 46 10 of 12 2 of 2 33 of 57 2 of 3 0 of 0
2 Denis Tiuliulin 51 of 85 60% 37 of 67 14 of 17 0 of 1 30 of 57 15 of 15 6 of 13
Jamie Pickett 25 of 51 49% 21 of 44 3 of 6 1 of 1 23 of 46 2 of 5 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Sep 6, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Jamie Pickett

Angelo leans toward Jamie Pickett, citing his takedowns and ability to win via grappling. He notes Pickett is a solid striker but gun-shy, while Tiuliulin is a brawler with power. He thinks if Pickett manages range and uses takedowns, he can win, but it's a low-confidence pick.

"I'm gonna lean Pickett because he does have eight takedowns in the UFC and he is an okay striker and these low volume guys are super frustrating but if Jamie gets it to the ground I think it's a clear …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 8, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Denis Tiuliulin

Big Brady picks Denis Tiuliulin as a dog, criticizing Jamie Pickett for being inactive and fighting not to lose. He was impressed by Tiuliulin's debut against a tough prospect and believes Tiuliulin can stuff takedowns and land a big shot. He predicts a first-round knockout, though he expects the fight to be terrible overall.

first round knockout
"I'm actually going to pick Dennis here as a dog to go out there and knock out Jamie Pickett."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Sep 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Denis Tiuliulin

Cody leans towards Denis Tiuliulin as a dog, noting that Jamie Pickett is not a great wrestler and that Tiuliulin has power and durability. He mentions that Pickett's takedown defense is not elite and that Tiuliulin can hold his own on the feet. He is not betting it but picks Tiuliulin for the show.

Pickett under 1.5 takedowns on PrizePicks
"leaning towards the dogs with dennis chi lulin for me not betting it though"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Sep 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Denis Tiuliulin

Daniel Levi picks Denis Tiuliulin for the upset. He notes Tiuliulin's knockout power and long striking, while Pickett has been finished before. He acknowledges Pickett's physical advantages and takedown ability, but believes if Tiuliulin can avoid being taken down, he can light up Pickett on the feet. Levi calls it a 'dog or pass' situation.

"I'm gonna go out on a limb here i'm gonna take a dennis chaluan for the upset."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Sep 6, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Denis Tiuliulin

Jacob strongly disagrees, picking Denis Tiuliulin. He thinks Pickett does not belong in the UFC, is gun-shy, and has telegraphed takedowns. He praises Tiuliulin's striking, power, and toughness, noting he landed clean shots against a dominant wrestler on short notice. He believes Tiuliulin will march forward and find a finish.

has bets on Tiuliulin for premium members
"I'm the knee all the way man if you're a premium member I got bets you better become a premium member."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Sep 9, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Jamie Pickett

The host leans Jamie Pickett but can't back him at -130. He expects Pickett to use his physical attributes to overpower Tiuliulin in the clinch and grind out a decision. He notes Tiuliulin's power but thinks Pickett's durability and bullying style will prevail.

over 2.5 rounds (-140)
"I think Jamie just grinds him out and wins this fight by decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Sep 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jamie Pickett

Paul leans towards Jamie Pickett, noting that Tiuliulin has poor takedown defense and cardio, which are Pickett's strengths. He believes Pickett will use his wrestling to lean on Tiuliulin and tire him out. However, he is not confident and says it's a dog or pass fight.

"i would have to lean towards pickett even though he's a slight favorite you could just chalk this one up to a dog or pass"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 10, 2022 (fight day)
Denis Tiuliulin

The MMA Guru picks Denis Tiuliulin to win by TKO in the first round. He describes both fighters playing at range early, with Tiuliulin looking for body kicks. Pickett will time punches when Tiuliulin kicks, but as he rushes in, Tiuliulin lands a big shot over the top, rocks Pickett, and finishes with body shots and big shots against the cage.

TKO in the first round
"I'm gonna go with Dennis Chilean by TKO in the first round"
Technical Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 1:58 · UFC on ESPN: Blaydes vs. Daukaus · Mar 26, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Aliaskhab Khizriev 0 42 of 67 62% 54 of 79 2 of 3 66% 1 0 2:46
Denis Tiuliulin 0 31 of 82 37% 43 of 94 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Aliaskhab Khizriev 0 29 of 46 63% 41 of 58 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:29
Denis Tiuliulin 0 17 of 47 36% 29 of 59 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
2 Aliaskhab Khizriev 0 13 of 21 61% 13 of 21 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:17
Denis Tiuliulin 0 14 of 35 40% 14 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Aliaskhab Khizriev 42 of 67 62% 31 of 53 8 of 10 3 of 4 33 of 56 1 of 3 8 of 8
Denis Tiuliulin 31 of 82 37% 28 of 78 3 of 4 0 of 0 30 of 80 1 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Aliaskhab Khizriev 29 of 46 63% 21 of 36 6 of 7 2 of 3 20 of 35 1 of 3 8 of 8
Denis Tiuliulin 17 of 47 36% 15 of 44 2 of 3 0 of 0 16 of 45 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Aliaskhab Khizriev 13 of 21 61% 10 of 17 2 of 3 1 of 1 13 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0
Denis Tiuliulin 14 of 35 40% 13 of 34 1 of 1 0 of 0 14 of 35 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 21, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Aliaskhab Khizriev

Big Brady picks Aliaskhab Khizriev to win by first-round TKO. He notes that Khizriev is a beast with power and excellent wrestling and ground-and-pound, while Tiuliulin has poor takedown defense and has been submitted before. He acknowledges that Tiuliulin looks dangerous on the feet, but believes Khizriev will take him down and finish him. He also mentions that Khizriev is inactive and undersized, but still expects a dominant win.

Aliaskhab Khizriev wins by TKO in round 1
"I gotta go with kazurav here... I think his wrath probably does finish till he win probably in that first round."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 21, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Aliaskhab Khizriev

Cody picks Khizriev, noting his layoff but blaming cancellations. He thinks Tiuliulin is outmatched and on short notice. He expects Khizriev to win quickly. He likes the price compared to other favorites.

"i would think that kerziev goes out there and gets the job done"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Mar 24, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Aliaskhab Khizriev

Daniel Levi picks Aliaskhab Khizriev, stating he took him at -325 and parlayed him. He praises Khizriev's grappling, lower center of gravity, and ability to take the fight to the ground immediately. He notes Tiuliulin is a dangerous striker but expects Khizriev to submit him in the first round. He acknowledges the line has moved to -800 but is confident in his pick.

Khizriev by submission in round 1, parlayed with Rosa
"I think he's going to submit him in the first round so give me his rib for the dub nick"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 23, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Aliaskhab Khizriev

The host picks Khizriev but expresses concerns about his size at 185 lbs and the possibility of the fight going over 1.5 rounds. He notes Khizriev's Dagestani wrestling style and expects a TKO in the second or third round. He mentions Tiuliulin's padded record and short notice, but also that Tiuliulin is training at Extreme Couture and may be tougher than expected.

Khizriev by TKO in rounds 2-3; over 1.5 rounds considered
"the pick is gonna be kisri of um i think his riv i think he still gets him out of there probably tko later in this fight"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 21, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Aliaskhab Khizriev

Paul picks Khizriev, expecting an early finish. He notes Khizriev's aggressive style and Tiuliulin's short notice. He thinks the price is high but justifiable. He considers Khizriev a good parlay piece.

early finish
"i think kisriya of goes out there absolutely smashes early and often"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 21, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Aliaskhab Khizriev

The MMA Guru picks Aliaskhab Khizriev over Denis Tiuliulin, acknowledging Tiuliulin's KO power but noting he is a bottom-of-the-barrel short-notice replacement. He believes Khizriev is in his prime, more well-rounded, and has faced better competition, while Tiuliulin has failed at every step up in competition. The Guru predicts a submission win in the first round, but warns that if Khizriev gets KO'd early, Tiuliulin could pull the upset.

submission in the first round
"i think you've got to go at least grab kids arrive"
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Aug 13, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

Angelo picks Gregory Rodrigues but with low confidence, noting that the fight should be closer to a pick'em than the current odds. He believes Rodrigues has a significant ground advantage and can submit Tiuliulin if he shoots takedowns. However, he worries that Rodrigues might choose to slug it out, which could lead to another knockout loss. He notes Tiuliulin's power fades over three rounds and he has nothing on the ground.

"Gregory Rodriguez is going to be the pick very low confidence pick because I want him to shoot takedowns... but if Gregory wants to come in there and Slug It Out he can end up with a really bad night again."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 12, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

Big Brady confidently picks Gregory Rodrigues to win by first-round submission, emphasizing Rodrigues' elite jiu-jitsu against Denis Tiuliulin's poor ground game. He notes Tiuliulin has been submitted in four of his seven losses and looked lost on the mat against Jun Yong Park. Brady worries Rodrigues might stand and bang, but if he grapples, the fight ends quickly.

win by submission, round 1
"I'll say he grapples I'll say he destroys Dennis to a Lewin in the first five minutes on the mat first round sub for Gregory Rodriguez"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

Cody expects Rodrigues to take the fight to the ground and submit Tiuliulin, who has poor grappling defense. He notes Rodrigues has questionable ring IQ and may stand and trade, but if he wrestles, he wins easily. He predicts a rear-naked choke submission in the first or second round.

Rodrigues by submission; under 1.5 rounds; fight time under 5 minutes
"I would say this fight hits the ground Greg Rodriguez puts that rear [__] choke into play so sign me up for rear naked choke first round submission"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 17, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

Daniel Levi picks Gregory Rodrigues, expecting him to grapple more after his last knockout loss. He notes that Rodrigues has heavy hands and a dangerous submission game, and that Tiuliulin is vulnerable on the ground, having been submitted before. Levi thinks Rodrigues will submit Tiuliulin in round one or two, but acknowledges that Tiuliulin is dangerous on the feet and has a better chin. He played under 1.5 rounds and submission props.

Under 1.5 rounds; submission in round 1 or 2
"I think he's actually gonna grapple more this fight... I think he's gonna grapple here and submit Dennis in round one or two"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Aug 18, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

Lucrative James picks Gregory Rodrigues to win, likely by finish from top position. He acknowledges Rodrigues' poor chin but believes he will overwhelm Tiuliulin. He also likes a prop bet on Tiuliulin by KO due to Rodrigues' chin issues, calling it a system play.

Denis Tiuliulin by KO (plus 500)
"I'm picking Gregory Rodriguez to win this fight I don't mind the dentist by KO shot"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

Rodrigues is a high-level BJJ black belt with improving striking. Tiuliulin struggles with grapplers, as seen in his recent losses. Rodrigues will take him down and dominate from top position, likely finishing inside the distance. The moneyline is worth the chalk, but the finish prop offers a discount.

Rodrigues wins inside distance
"I'm taking Rodriguez to win this fight very easily and I think he does it inside the distance especially if you want to get a bit of a discount on that money line"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

The MMA Guru picks Gregory Rodrigues, though he notes if the odds become ridiculous, betting on Tiuliulin might not be bad. He thinks Rodrigues can win on the feet or by taking the fight to the ground if needed. He criticizes Tiuliulin's hittable style and compares it unfavorably to Diaz/Covington at higher weights. He predicts a KO win for Rodrigues.

KO
"I think Gregory Rodriguez gets this one done by KO"