Career Averages - Natália Silva
Career Averages - Andrea Lee
Natália Silva
Andrea Lee
Natália Silva - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natália Silva | 0 | 51 of 133 | 38% | 63 of 147 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:24 |
| Rose Namajunas | 0 | 26 of 94 | 27% | 46 of 119 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 2:09 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Natália Silva | 0 | 15 of 44 | 34% | 15 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Rose Namajunas | 0 | 13 of 39 | 33% | 13 of 39 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Natália Silva | 0 | 8 of 27 | 29% | 15 of 34 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:37 |
| Rose Namajunas | 0 | 5 of 18 | 27% | 25 of 43 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:09 | |
| 3 | Natália Silva | 0 | 28 of 62 | 45% | 33 of 69 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:47 |
| Rose Namajunas | 0 | 8 of 37 | 21% | 8 of 37 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natália Silva | 51 of 133 | 38% | 25 of 95 | 8 of 14 | 18 of 24 | 50 of 132 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Rose Namajunas | 26 of 94 | 27% | 11 of 64 | 3 of 13 | 12 of 17 | 26 of 92 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Natália Silva | 15 of 44 | 34% | 10 of 32 | 1 of 3 | 4 of 9 | 15 of 44 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Rose Namajunas | 13 of 39 | 33% | 4 of 22 | 1 of 6 | 8 of 11 | 13 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Natália Silva | 8 of 27 | 29% | 4 of 22 | 0 of 1 | 4 of 4 | 8 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Rose Namajunas | 5 of 18 | 27% | 3 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 17 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Natália Silva | 28 of 62 | 45% | 11 of 41 | 7 of 10 | 10 of 11 | 27 of 61 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Rose Namajunas | 8 of 37 | 21% | 4 of 26 | 1 of 6 | 3 of 5 | 8 of 36 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Natália Silva, calling her faster, cleaner, and a better athlete. He praises her footwork and timing. He acknowledges Rose Namajunas's experience and fight IQ but believes Silva's youth and speed will prevail. He suggests over 2.5 rounds as a likely lock.
Big Brady believes Silva is one of the best flyweights, with elite takedown defense (92%) and great striking volume and power. He thinks Rose will struggle similar to her fight with Fiorot, and Silva will piece her up over 15 minutes for a dominant decision win.
Cody confidently picks Natália Silva, citing her 92% takedown defense and striking volume. He believes Rose Namajunas struggles at 125 pounds and won't be able to secure takedowns. Cody expects Silva to win a unanimous decision, outworking Rose on the feet.
Connor also picks Silva, agreeing that Rose Namajunas has not adapted well to flyweight. He notes that Rose's power and speed have diminished, and that she now has to outwork opponents—a style she never excelled at. Connor points out that Silva is faster, hits harder, and throws more, and that Rose's best chance (wrestling) is untested against Silva. He believes Silva's dynamism will be too much for Rose to handle.
Daniel Vreeland picks Natália Silva to win by decision. He praises Silva's confidence, well-rounded game, and impressive wins over former champions. He notes that Silva is younger, hungrier, and has speed that matches Namajunas. Vreeland believes Silva will beat Namajunas decisively and earn a title shot against Valentina Shevchenko.
James is confident in Silva, noting her superior footwork neutralizes Namajunas's best asset. He expects Silva to win via decision, possibly hurting Namajunas with kicks but not finishing her. He mentions Silva's taekwondo background and that she has cashed for him multiple times.
The host leans towards Silva by decision, praising her distance management and blitzing style. However, he finds the -410 line too wide and believes Rose Namajunas is live as a plus-310 underdog. He notes Namajunas's experience, improved grappling, and ability to counter mobile strikers. He suggests the over 2.5 rounds is a no-brainer and recommends betting on Namajunas for value.
Paul agrees with Cody, emphasizing Silva's speed and combination punching. He doubts Rose can get the wrestling going and believes Silva's quickness will overwhelm her. Paul sees a decision win for Silva, noting that a knockout prop is not worth the price.
The MMA Guru picks Natália Silva, praising her kicking game and ability to fight off the back foot. He notes that Rose Namajunas often leaves fights close and lacks offensive grappling at flyweight. He predicts a decision win, possibly 30-27.
Zane picks Natália Silva confidently, highlighting her incredible speed and high output. He notes that Silva's bad defensive habits (chin in the air) are mitigated by her speed and ability to counter, and that she has hurt every opponent she's faced. Zane argues that Rose Namajunas has lost power and speed at flyweight, and that she can no longer rely on fight-changing shots. He believes Silva's volume and pace will overwhelm Rose over three rounds.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexa Grasso | 0 | 45 of 139 | 32% | 54 of 149 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:40 |
| Natália Silva | 0 | 65 of 164 | 39% | 74 of 173 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexa Grasso | 0 | 11 of 36 | 30% | 12 of 37 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
| Natália Silva | 0 | 16 of 48 | 33% | 24 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Alexa Grasso | 0 | 19 of 51 | 37% | 19 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Natália Silva | 0 | 21 of 56 | 37% | 21 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Alexa Grasso | 0 | 15 of 52 | 28% | 23 of 61 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:27 |
| Natália Silva | 0 | 28 of 60 | 46% | 29 of 61 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexa Grasso | 45 of 139 | 32% | 28 of 101 | 5 of 15 | 12 of 23 | 43 of 136 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Natália Silva | 65 of 164 | 39% | 42 of 137 | 9 of 11 | 14 of 16 | 64 of 162 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexa Grasso | 11 of 36 | 30% | 7 of 25 | 0 of 2 | 4 of 9 | 10 of 35 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Natália Silva | 16 of 48 | 33% | 6 of 36 | 3 of 3 | 7 of 9 | 16 of 48 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Alexa Grasso | 19 of 51 | 37% | 13 of 41 | 3 of 4 | 3 of 6 | 19 of 51 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Natália Silva | 21 of 56 | 37% | 17 of 51 | 0 of 1 | 4 of 4 | 21 of 56 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Alexa Grasso | 15 of 52 | 28% | 8 of 35 | 2 of 9 | 5 of 8 | 14 of 50 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Natália Silva | 28 of 60 | 46% | 19 of 50 | 6 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 27 of 58 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Natália Silva confidently, calling her the future of the division. He notes Alexa Grasso is a former champion who never defended her belt and has struggled. He believes Silva's speed, accuracy, and mobility will give Grasso trouble finding her range. He suggests parlaying Silva with other favorite women on the card, as he thinks the women's fights provide stability.
Big Brady is confident in Natália Silva, noting she is younger, in her prime, and a better striker. He questions Alexa Grasso's form after a poor performance against Valentina Shevchenko, possibly due to injury. He thinks Silva can win by decision and may even mix in takedowns. He doesn't love the -220 price but believes Silva wins.
Connor picks Natália Silva, agreeing with Zane that Silva's speed and mobility will be too much for Grasso. He notes that Grasso's game is rudimentary and she tends to have the same exchanges repeatedly, while Silva can fight her way out of corners and land bigger shots. Connor believes Silva's athleticism and dynamic striking will earn her a win and a title shot.
The host believes Silva's style—perpetual movement, lateral movement, range management, and blitzing attacks—will frustrate Grasso and cause her to walk into big shots. He expects Silva to win clearly on the scorecards.
The MMA Guru picks Natália Silva, calling her 'the truth' of the division. He praises her striking, takedown defense, and ability to piece up opponents like Jasudavicius. He thinks Grasso's linear style and high guard are tailor-made for Silva's front kicks and lateral movement. He predicts a decision win, possibly 30-27, but notes the UFC may favor Grasso for the Guadalajara card.
Zane picks Natália Silva, arguing that her speed, mobility, and long-range output will outwork Grasso. He notes that Grasso tends to be stationary when throwing and will struggle to deal with Silva's constant movement and kicking game. Zane points to Grasso's fight with Vivi Araujo as a blueprint for how a similar athlete can give her trouble, and believes Silva is more dynamic than Araujo.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natália Silva | 0 | 50 of 140 | 35% | 62 of 153 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:11 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 0 | 117 of 208 | 56% | 119 of 211 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:49 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Natália Silva | 0 | 24 of 56 | 42% | 24 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 0 | 33 of 74 | 44% | 33 of 74 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Natália Silva | 0 | 11 of 37 | 29% | 17 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:55 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 0 | 37 of 69 | 53% | 37 of 70 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:46 | |
| 3 | Natália Silva | 0 | 15 of 47 | 31% | 21 of 53 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:12 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 0 | 47 of 65 | 72% | 49 of 67 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natália Silva | 50 of 140 | 35% | 33 of 114 | 13 of 20 | 4 of 6 | 48 of 136 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 117 of 208 | 56% | 67 of 151 | 38 of 45 | 12 of 12 | 106 of 197 | 9 of 9 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Natália Silva | 24 of 56 | 42% | 16 of 46 | 7 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 23 of 54 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 33 of 74 | 44% | 14 of 53 | 12 of 14 | 7 of 7 | 32 of 73 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Natália Silva | 11 of 37 | 29% | 9 of 31 | 1 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 10 of 35 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 37 of 69 | 53% | 20 of 47 | 15 of 20 | 2 of 2 | 32 of 64 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Natália Silva | 15 of 47 | 31% | 8 of 37 | 5 of 7 | 2 of 3 | 15 of 47 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 47 of 65 | 72% | 33 of 51 | 11 of 11 | 3 of 3 | 42 of 60 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 2 |
Angelo picks Natália Silva because she is very well-rounded, technical, and has power that lasts into the third round. He believes she is the better fighter and as long as she doesn't let Andrade bully her, she should win. He notes that Silva has beaten prospects and veterans alike.
Big Brady picks Natália Silva to win by decision. He is high on Silva, noting her impressive performances and striking. He acknowledges Andrade is a tough test and has revived her career, but believes Silva is the much better striker and may even drop Andrade. Brady thinks the odds are a bit disrespectful to Andrade but still favors Silva.
Cody believes Silva's size, speed, and counter-punching will be too much for Andrade, who struggles at 125 lbs against longer fighters. He notes Andrade's recent losses and personal issues but respects her toughness. He thinks Silva can win by decision or knockout, but does not like the -300 price. He picks Silva but is not betting the moneyline.
Daniel is high on Natália Silva, calling her one of the best prospects in women's MMA. He praises her movement, takedown defense, athleticism, and the fact that she paid her dues on the regional scene. He thinks Andrade's charging-forward style is a bad matchup against Silva's speed and accuracy. While he respects Andrade's evolution, he believes Silva is catching her at a great time and picks her to win.
Silva is a technical striker with excellent lateral movement and accuracy. Andrade is a power puncher who struggles with fighters who stick and move. Silva can keep the fight at range and potentially land a knockout. The pick is Silva by decision, with a sprinkle on Silva by KO if odds are favorable.
Paul sees Silva as faster, bigger, and more technical, with a counter-striking style that can neutralize Andrade's blitzes. He notes Andrade's recent losses and personal distractions (divorce, manager issues) but acknowledges her toughness. He believes Silva can win by decision or even knockout, but is wary of the -300 price. He leans Silva but does not love the moneyline.
The MMA Guru picks Natália Silva over Jéssica Andrade. He praises Silva's range control and ability to fight on the back foot. He notes Andrade has been outstruck by lesser fighters like Erin Blanchfield and struggles at flyweight. He highlights Silva's 11-fight win streak and her dominant UFC wins over Viviane Araujo, Andrea Lee, and others. He believes Silva is young (27) and still improving.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natália Silva | 0 | 26 of 67 | 38% | 63 of 110 | 1 of 9 | 11% | 0 | 0 | 6:01 |
| Viviane Araújo | 0 | 38 of 128 | 29% | 65 of 157 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Natália Silva | 0 | 8 of 15 | 53% | 36 of 43 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 3:31 |
| Viviane Araújo | 0 | 8 of 32 | 25% | 16 of 40 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Natália Silva | 0 | 9 of 21 | 42% | 18 of 35 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:25 |
| Viviane Araújo | 0 | 12 of 38 | 31% | 22 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Natália Silva | 0 | 9 of 31 | 29% | 9 of 32 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:05 |
| Viviane Araújo | 0 | 18 of 58 | 31% | 27 of 69 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natália Silva | 26 of 67 | 38% | 20 of 58 | 1 of 3 | 5 of 6 | 25 of 66 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Viviane Araújo | 38 of 128 | 29% | 24 of 103 | 8 of 16 | 6 of 9 | 38 of 128 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Natália Silva | 8 of 15 | 53% | 6 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Viviane Araújo | 8 of 32 | 25% | 5 of 26 | 2 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Natália Silva | 9 of 21 | 42% | 6 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Viviane Araújo | 12 of 38 | 31% | 10 of 33 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 3 | 12 of 38 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Natália Silva | 9 of 31 | 29% | 8 of 27 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 9 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Viviane Araújo | 18 of 58 | 31% | 9 of 44 | 5 of 9 | 4 of 5 | 18 of 58 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo is very high on Natália Silva, calling her a potential top-five fighter. He notes her footwork, takedown defense (92%), and power that carries into later rounds. He believes she will outclass Viviane Araújo everywhere and get the win.
Big Brady picks Natália Silva to win by decision. He notes that Silva is 10 years younger and has better cardio, while Araújo slows down significantly as fights go on. He expects the fight to be competitive early, possibly with Araújo trying to wrestle, but Silva will take over as the fight progresses and win a decision.
Cody picks Silva, praising her evolution and athleticism. He notes Araújo's cardio issues and inconsistency, expecting Silva to win a decision or possibly get a late finish. He likes Silva by decision prop to avoid the heavy moneyline.
Silva has looked unstoppable in the UFC with her lateral movement, kicks from distance, and submissions off her back. Araújo is a crisp striker early but fades as fights go on, and Silva's volume and output should allow her to win a decision. The host suggests playing Silva live if Araújo wins round one, or using her as a parlay piece.
Paul picks Silva by KO, taking a small stab at +540. He notes Silva's power and Araújo's toughness but thinks Silva's evolving skill set can get the finish. He acknowledges the moneyline is too steep.
The MMA Guru picks Natália Silva over Viviane Araújo, despite a bizarre tangent about fighters' relationship status. He acknowledges Araújo is good but believes Silva has the skill level to make something happen. He notes Silva's wins over Jasmine Jasudavicius, Mayra Bueno Silva, and Andrea Lee, and thinks Araújo may be on the downswing. He predicts a decision win for Silva.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natália Silva | 0 | 43 of 125 | 34% | 43 of 125 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Andrea Lee | 0 | 70 of 174 | 40% | 70 of 174 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Natália Silva | 0 | 14 of 49 | 28% | 14 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Andrea Lee | 0 | 26 of 62 | 41% | 26 of 62 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Natália Silva | 0 | 18 of 42 | 42% | 18 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Andrea Lee | 0 | 22 of 50 | 44% | 22 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Natália Silva | 0 | 11 of 34 | 32% | 11 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Andrea Lee | 0 | 22 of 62 | 35% | 22 of 62 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natália Silva | 43 of 125 | 34% | 12 of 74 | 11 of 23 | 20 of 28 | 43 of 125 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Andrea Lee | 70 of 174 | 40% | 34 of 111 | 17 of 43 | 19 of 20 | 70 of 174 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Natália Silva | 14 of 49 | 28% | 4 of 29 | 3 of 7 | 7 of 13 | 14 of 49 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Andrea Lee | 26 of 62 | 41% | 13 of 38 | 6 of 16 | 7 of 8 | 26 of 62 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Natália Silva | 18 of 42 | 42% | 5 of 24 | 6 of 10 | 7 of 8 | 18 of 42 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Andrea Lee | 22 of 50 | 44% | 8 of 29 | 9 of 16 | 5 of 5 | 22 of 50 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Natália Silva | 11 of 34 | 32% | 3 of 21 | 2 of 6 | 6 of 7 | 11 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Andrea Lee | 22 of 62 | 35% | 13 of 44 | 2 of 11 | 7 of 7 | 22 of 62 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo is confident in Natália Silva, citing her well-rounded skills, power that carries into later rounds, and ability to turn fights into brawls. He notes that Andrea Lee is tough and technical but believes Silva is the better striker and grappler, and that Lee won't be able to take her down. He has Silva in a parlay and also suggests betting the under on Andrea Lee's takedown line.
Big Brady leans toward Natália Silva despite the wide line, citing her power advantage and elite takedown defense. He notes Andrea Lee has good volume and underrated skills, but Silva lands harder shots and may mix in takedowns. He expects the fight to go the distance with Silva winning by decision, similar to Lee's fight with Mayra Bueno Silva.
Cody sees Silva as the complete package with good striking and fast hands, while Lee is slowing down and has a wonky training situation. He expects Silva to piece up Lee, but warns that women's MMA is unpredictable.
Daniel Levi picks Andrea Lee as an underdog, citing her experience and savvy. He notes that Silva is small for the weight class and has shown weaknesses when taken down, as Lee's grappling is better than Silva's previous opponents. Levi thinks Lee can win via grappling and that the plus money is valuable. He also likes the plus 3.5 spread. However, he acknowledges Silva is the real deal and is not going heavy on the bet.
Lucrative James picks Natália Silva to win, citing her excellent distance management and takedown defense. He expects Silva to dictate the striking range and potentially get takedowns of her own, as Andrea Lee has historically lost when taken down and controlled on the ground. He sees the fight going to a decision with Silva edging it out 29-28 or 30-27.
Silva's movement and striking accuracy should be too much for Lee. She lands significant strikes from distance and has shown finishing ability. However, the moneyline is too wide given Lee's experience and potential grappling success. Prefer Silva by decision prop as a better value.
The MMA Guru confidently picks Natália Silva, calling her one of the rare good female MMA prospects. He highlights her stunning striking performances and dominant wins over Jasmine Jasudavicius and Tereza Bledá. He notes Andrea Lee has taken a lot of damage and is 34, while Silva is 26 and improving. He expects Silva to win by decision but thinks Lee will make it tough.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natália Silva | 1 | 20 of 45 | 44% | 21 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:16 |
| Victoria Leonardo | 0 | 7 of 18 | 38% | 7 of 18 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Natália Silva | 1 | 20 of 45 | 44% | 21 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:16 |
| Victoria Leonardo | 0 | 7 of 18 | 38% | 7 of 18 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natália Silva | 20 of 45 | 44% | 16 of 41 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 20 of 44 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
| Victoria Leonardo | 7 of 18 | 38% | 6 of 14 | 0 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Natália Silva | 20 of 45 | 44% | 16 of 41 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 20 of 44 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
| Victoria Leonardo | 7 of 18 | 38% | 6 of 14 | 0 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo is very confident in Natália Silva winning, citing her superior striking, grappling, power, and athleticism. He acknowledges Victoria Leonardo may be the better wrestler and could get takedowns, but believes Silva will work back up and potentially get a finish. However, he is undecided on betting due to the juiced line and past burns on women's MMA favorites.
Big Brady picks Natália Silva to knock out Victoria Leonardo in the second round. He is very confident, noting Silva's striking is elite and her takedown defense has improved significantly. He sees Leonardo's only path to success being clinch control, but doubts she can get takedowns. He expects Silva to dominate on the feet and finish Leonardo, who has been finished in all her losses.
Cody is very confident in Silva, citing her impressive debut and well-rounded skills. He notes Leonardo's poor durability and record. He expects Silva to win easily, possibly by finish.
Connor is also very confident in Silva, agreeing that she is much better technically, harder hitting, and more dynamic everywhere. He notes that Leonardo is slow and that Silva will dominate. Connor mentions that Silva has lost fights early in her career but has used that experience to hit the UFC very ready.
Daniel Levi is extremely confident in Natália Silva, calling her a future star. He praises her striking, takedown defense, and highlight-reel potential (spinning back kick KO). He views Victoria Leonardo as a stepping stone and expects Silva to make a statement. He notes Leonardo has been susceptible to high kicks in the past. He says Silva is ready for the top 15 and this is a showcase fight.
The host is confident Natália Silva will win, but notes the -1000 moneyline is prohibitive. He prefers the under 2.5 rounds prop, expecting Silva's speed and power to be too much for Leonardo. He thinks Silva will find a finish, possibly by knockout or club and sub, as Leonardo slows down and eats damage.
Paul also picks Silva, but notes the heavy price. He thinks Silva is much more skilled and should win, but acknowledges the risk of betting such a short favorite. He takes a prop bet on Silva inside the distance.
The MMA Guru calls this the lock of the card, praising Natália Silva's well-rounded game including submissions off her back and excellent striking. He notes she schooled Jasmine Jasudavicius and finished Teresa Blader with a spinning back kick. He dismisses Victoria Leonardo as mediocre in every realm, despite her win over Mandy Böhm. He expects Silva to win decisively.
Zane is very confident in Silva, describing her as aggressive, fast, and technical with good wrestling and grappling. He notes that Leonardo is terribly slow and that Silva will absolutely flex on her. Zane believes Silva is a borderline finished product and will crush Leonardo.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natália Silva | 1 | 45 of 72 | 62% | 62 of 89 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 2:13 |
| Tereza Bledá | 0 | 18 of 47 | 38% | 25 of 55 | 1 of 7 | 14% | 2 | 0 | 4:56 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Natália Silva | 0 | 6 of 9 | 66% | 9 of 12 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 2:01 |
| Tereza Bledá | 0 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 11 of 14 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 2 | 0 | 2:19 | |
| 2 | Natália Silva | 0 | 24 of 38 | 63% | 37 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
| Tereza Bledá | 0 | 10 of 22 | 45% | 10 of 23 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 2:27 | |
| 3 | Natália Silva | 1 | 15 of 25 | 60% | 16 of 26 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Tereza Bledá | 0 | 4 of 18 | 22% | 4 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natália Silva | 45 of 72 | 62% | 26 of 50 | 7 of 9 | 12 of 13 | 41 of 65 | 1 of 3 | 3 of 4 |
| Tereza Bledá | 18 of 47 | 38% | 8 of 33 | 7 of 10 | 3 of 4 | 13 of 40 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Natália Silva | 6 of 9 | 66% | 2 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Tereza Bledá | 4 of 7 | 57% | 1 of 2 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Natália Silva | 24 of 38 | 63% | 14 of 27 | 3 of 4 | 7 of 7 | 23 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Tereza Bledá | 10 of 22 | 45% | 5 of 16 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 19 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Natália Silva | 15 of 25 | 60% | 10 of 19 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 12 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 |
| Tereza Bledá | 4 of 18 | 22% | 2 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natália Silva | 0 | 31 of 101 | 30% | 40 of 116 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 3:37 |
| Jasmine Jasudavicius | 0 | 96 of 185 | 51% | 120 of 213 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:07 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Natália Silva | 0 | 12 of 33 | 36% | 16 of 42 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:51 |
| Jasmine Jasudavicius | 0 | 27 of 53 | 50% | 44 of 71 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:09 | |
| 2 | Natália Silva | 0 | 10 of 34 | 29% | 14 of 38 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:48 |
| Jasmine Jasudavicius | 0 | 41 of 78 | 52% | 48 of 88 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:45 | |
| 3 | Natália Silva | 0 | 9 of 34 | 26% | 10 of 36 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:58 |
| Jasmine Jasudavicius | 0 | 28 of 54 | 51% | 28 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natália Silva | 31 of 101 | 30% | 12 of 72 | 18 of 27 | 1 of 2 | 27 of 95 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Jasmine Jasudavicius | 96 of 185 | 51% | 55 of 137 | 18 of 24 | 23 of 24 | 85 of 169 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 15 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Natália Silva | 12 of 33 | 36% | 5 of 24 | 6 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 30 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Jasmine Jasudavicius | 27 of 53 | 50% | 9 of 32 | 9 of 11 | 9 of 10 | 26 of 49 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 3 | |
| 2 | Natália Silva | 10 of 34 | 29% | 4 of 24 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 1 | 10 of 33 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Jasmine Jasudavicius | 41 of 78 | 52% | 30 of 65 | 5 of 7 | 6 of 6 | 31 of 66 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 12 | |
| 3 | Natália Silva | 9 of 34 | 26% | 3 of 24 | 6 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 32 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Jasmine Jasudavicius | 28 of 54 | 51% | 16 of 40 | 4 of 6 | 8 of 8 | 28 of 54 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Jasudavicius (-240), Silva (+195)
Round 1
Representatives of Canada in Jasudavicius (7-1, 1-0 UFC) and Brazil in Silva (12-5-1, 0-0 UFC) will battle it out for international supremacy at the flyweight division next. While Jasudavicius made a splash by handling Kay Hansen in her UFC debut, Silva will be making her first Octagon appearance. The preliminary headliner will receive oversight from referee Jacob Montalvo, and the ladies do not touch gloves in front of him. Jasudavicius claims the center of the cage, and Silva is happy to allow this as she picks and pokes at Jasudavicius with low kicks and long jabs. Silva just misses a head kick, and she scores three punches that knock Jasudavicius off-balance. The Brazilian gets clinched up after delivering the blows, with Jasudavicius stung from the strikes, and Jasudavicius starts going after a body lock takedown. The Canadian gets her wits about her as she hangs on in the clinch, ands he hooks the legs and hunts for an inside trip, but she cannot land it. Silva breaks the grip and escapes, but she absorbs a quick elbow on the way out. Silva kicks the side, and when Jasudavicius advances towards her, she pushes off with the ball of her foot on her foe’s solar plexus. Silva scores two punches and just comes up short with a head kick, and she takes a flush one-two on the way back. Silva sneaks a high kick up that slaps Jasudavicius in the face, and she kicks low and high in rapid succession as Jasudavicius is forced to defend. Silva leans back when Jasudavicius bears down on her, and she scores an effective kick and slips the punch counters. Jasudavicius dives forward for takedown, and she wraps her arms around Silva’s waist but cannot wrench her down. They jockey for position when tied up, and Jasudavicius’ efforts to ground her opponent are unsuccessful. The horn sounds when Jasudavicius gets off a pair of knees on the inside.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Silva
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Silva
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Silva
Round 2
Silva strikes first to start off the second round with a push kick, and she marks Jasudavicius’ face up with three clean left hands. When Jasudavicius tries to reply, Silva cracks her with a left hand. Jasudavicius continues moving towards her, but Silva is teeing off on her and she cannot land anything back. Jasudavicius leans in to clinch, and she goes to set up a body lock. Silva deftly reverses Jasudavicius with a high-amplitude throw, and she stacks Jasudavicius up when Jasudavicius hunts for a leg lock upon landing on her back. Silva uses the fence behind her to keep on her feet, even when Jasudavicius powers into a double-leg entry. Silva splits off and fires off a pair of punches, and she misses a spinning wheel kick. Silva slaps her shin on Jasudavicius’ calf, and she remains light on her feet when tossing out a few punches. Silva flusters her adversary with punch bursts and kicks to mix them up, and Jasudavicius cannot reach her with anything of note. Jasudavicius dives low for a single, and Silva stands her all the way back up. Jasudavicius lifts Silva’s leg in the air, and Silva reverses her and tosses her to the mat. The Brazilian slams Jasudavicius with several brutal elbows, and Montalvo takes a hard look at this barrage of unanswered blows. Jasudavicius scrambles well enough to get to her knees, and Silva slams her down again. Silva lets her back up so that she can spin with a wheel kick, and it rebounds off Jasudavicius’ arm. Silva works her foe over with punches high and kicks low, and she slaps Jasudavicius in the face with two speedy kicks. Jasudavicius blitzes in to get off a single right hand, but it is one-and-done as Silva escapes out. Jasudavicius gives chase, and Silva is on her bike and out of harm’s way. Silva spins with a kick to the ribcage, and she dodges a flying knee to respond. Silva rings Jasudavicius’ bell with two hooks, and the horn sounds while Jasudavicius tries to recover.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Silva
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Silva
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Silva
Round 3
The flyweights rush out of their corners, with Jasudavicius advancing again as Silva coolly slides away laterally. Silva pushes out a few jabs, and Jasudavicius walks through them to trap Silva against the fence. Silva does not get slowed or absorb any noteworthy strikes, all while she pieces Jasudavicius up with punches and kicks. The kicks go to the calf or the high guard, and she is able to lean back with her hands down as Jasudavicius marches her down. Jasudavicius keeps chasing straight after Silva, but Silva is not there when Jasudavicius swings at her. Silva chips away at the lead leg, and one kick gets caught by the Canadian. Silva stands her back up after stumbling briefly, and Jasudavicius pushes her into the wire. Silva splits off and tosses out a high kick, and Jasudavicius barely blocks it in the nick of time. Silva dances out of the way when not peppering Jasudavicius with low kicks, and Jasudavicius is not fazed but slowing down to a degree. Silva is easily able to scamper away when Jasudavicius reaches her, and she sticks Jasudavicius with a few punches only to dart away. Silva sinks her shin into the side of her opponent, and she smoothly dodges the counter. Jasudavicius tries hard to grab Silva and glom on to her, and she decides to sprint forward and jump in the air so that she can close the distance and get her hands on the Brazilian. Silva fights off the single, and she breaks away before an elbow can crack her. The newcomer scores a clean push kick on the jaw, and Jasudavicius is wearing it. Silva slows Jasudavicius down more with her own tie-up, and when there is no takedown for her there, she gives up on it and backs away to loose a spinning back fist. With a couple seconds left, Jasudavicius leaps in the air with a strike, but Silva is able to somehow counter her midair with a jumping hammerfist to drop Jasudavicius to her knees in a furious collision. The final bell sounds right after they crash together.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Silva (30-27 Silva)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Silva (30-27 Silva)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Silva (30-27 Silva)
The Official Result
Natalia Cristina da Silva def. Jasmine Jasudavicius via Unanimous Decision (30-26, 30-27, 30-27)
Angelo picks Jasmine Jasudavicius, citing her wrestling and ability to get takedowns. He notes Natália Silva's brawling style leaves her open to takedowns. He wishes Silva had a different debut matchup but believes Jasudavicius will avoid the brawl and secure takedowns.
Big Brady picks Jasmine Jasudavicius to win by decision, but is hesitant due to her cardio issues. He notes Jasudavicius has a size advantage (height and reach) and improved wrestling, while Silva is smaller. He expects Jasudavicius to bank the first two rounds, though she tends to fade in the third.
Cody leans toward Jasudavicius due to her wrestling and striking advantage, but he's cautious because Silva is young and has potential. He notes Silva's limited tape and long layoff, but women's MMA is unpredictable. He calls it a dogger pass situation.
Daniel Levi picks Jasmine Jasudavicius, highlighting her wrestling background (Olympic medalist in Canada) and physicality. He believes she will take Natália Silva down and avoid Silva's armbar attempts from guard. Levi thinks Jasudavicius is still green but has the right style to grind out a unanimous decision. He is confident she wins as long as she doesn't get caught in an armbar.
Paul picks Silva as a dog, noting her youth and six-fight win streak. He thinks the price is attractive and women's MMA is volatile. He acknowledges limited tape but sees value in the underdog.
The MMA Guru picks Jasmine Jasudavicius, noting she is a better physical athlete with good takedown defense and her own takedowns. He believes Natália Silva is a decent prospect but not ready for this step up. He expects Jasudavicius to win a competitive 30-27 unanimous decision, using her clinch work and striking.
Andrea Lee - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrea Lee | 0 | 53 of 175 | 30% | 66 of 192 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 | 0 | 0:46 |
| JJ Aldrich | 0 | 74 of 137 | 54% | 77 of 142 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:20 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andrea Lee | 0 | 18 of 57 | 31% | 18 of 57 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| JJ Aldrich | 0 | 21 of 43 | 48% | 23 of 45 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:19 | |
| 2 | Andrea Lee | 0 | 15 of 58 | 25% | 18 of 61 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| JJ Aldrich | 0 | 25 of 46 | 54% | 25 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:23 | |
| 3 | Andrea Lee | 0 | 20 of 60 | 33% | 30 of 74 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 0:46 |
| JJ Aldrich | 0 | 28 of 48 | 58% | 29 of 50 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:38 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrea Lee | 53 of 175 | 30% | 13 of 109 | 25 of 44 | 15 of 22 | 52 of 174 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| JJ Aldrich | 74 of 137 | 54% | 54 of 114 | 10 of 13 | 10 of 10 | 68 of 130 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andrea Lee | 18 of 57 | 31% | 1 of 32 | 8 of 12 | 9 of 13 | 18 of 57 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| JJ Aldrich | 21 of 43 | 48% | 14 of 34 | 2 of 4 | 5 of 5 | 18 of 39 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Andrea Lee | 15 of 58 | 25% | 3 of 35 | 6 of 14 | 6 of 9 | 15 of 58 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| JJ Aldrich | 25 of 46 | 54% | 17 of 37 | 4 of 5 | 4 of 4 | 25 of 46 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Andrea Lee | 20 of 60 | 33% | 9 of 42 | 11 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 19 of 59 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| JJ Aldrich | 28 of 48 | 58% | 23 of 43 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 25 of 45 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Andrea Lee despite her five-fight losing streak, arguing that she is still a good striker with quality losses and close decisions. He criticizes JJ Aldrich as inconsistent and lacking in wrestling and striking. He sees value in Lee at +163 odds but warns against betting on this fight due to the unpredictability of both fighters.
Big Brady picks JJ Aldrich but is hesitant. He acknowledges value on Andrea Lee at +170 but cannot pick her due to her five-fight losing streak and apparent decline. He notes Aldrich's takedown defense and striking should be enough, but expects a close split decision.
The host leans with Aldrich, believing she can use her striking approach to nullify Lee's kickboxing and shut down any grappling attempts. He expects Aldrich's combination style to earn her a decision win.
The Guru picks JJ Aldrich over Andrea Lee. He reasons that Andrea Lee is on a five-fight losing streak and declining, while Aldrich is more well-rounded and can get takedowns. He recalls Aldrich's performance against Erin Blanchfield before getting caught in a guillotine. He predicts a split decision win for Aldrich.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montana De La Rosa | 0 | 75 of 152 | 49% | 115 of 201 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 2 | 2:08 |
| Andrea Lee | 0 | 70 of 180 | 38% | 88 of 206 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 2:09 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montana De La Rosa | 0 | 27 of 50 | 54% | 52 of 80 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 1:52 |
| Andrea Lee | 0 | 14 of 44 | 31% | 17 of 49 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 0:10 | |
| 2 | Montana De La Rosa | 0 | 31 of 68 | 45% | 36 of 73 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Andrea Lee | 0 | 33 of 81 | 40% | 37 of 86 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Montana De La Rosa | 0 | 17 of 34 | 50% | 27 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:16 |
| Andrea Lee | 0 | 23 of 55 | 41% | 34 of 71 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:59 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montana De La Rosa | 75 of 152 | 49% | 37 of 109 | 29 of 31 | 9 of 12 | 58 of 129 | 13 of 16 | 4 of 7 |
| Andrea Lee | 70 of 180 | 38% | 53 of 156 | 12 of 17 | 5 of 7 | 62 of 161 | 5 of 16 | 3 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montana De La Rosa | 27 of 50 | 54% | 16 of 38 | 10 of 10 | 1 of 2 | 12 of 31 | 11 of 12 | 4 of 7 |
| Andrea Lee | 14 of 44 | 31% | 9 of 37 | 4 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 36 | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Montana De La Rosa | 31 of 68 | 45% | 14 of 49 | 11 of 12 | 6 of 7 | 30 of 65 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Andrea Lee | 33 of 81 | 40% | 26 of 72 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 4 | 33 of 77 | 0 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Montana De La Rosa | 17 of 34 | 50% | 7 of 22 | 8 of 9 | 2 of 3 | 16 of 33 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Andrea Lee | 23 of 55 | 41% | 18 of 47 | 4 of 6 | 1 of 2 | 19 of 48 | 1 of 4 | 3 of 3 |
Angelo picks Andrea Lee, noting that Montana De La Rosa is a wrestler but didn't use her wrestling in her last fight against JJ Aldrich. He thinks if Montana doesn't commit to takedowns, Andrea will out-strike her. Andrea is a good striker with underrated skills, and her losses are to quality opponents. He is not confident Montana will wrestle, so he goes with Andrea.
Big Brady picks Montana De La Rosa with little confidence. He notes that Andrea Lee is on a four-fight losing streak and looks to be declining, while De La Rosa's striking has improved. He expects De La Rosa to get takedowns and control time. He says he is not betting on this fight and advises others to avoid it.
Cody picks Lee, noting that De La Rosa has poor ring IQ and does not commit to her wrestling. Lee has improved her takedown defense and has better striking volume. Cody expects Lee to sprawl and brawl, outpointing De La Rosa on the feet. He also likes Lee by decision at plus money.
Daniel picks Lee as the better fighter despite both being on losing streaks. He notes Lee won their first fight and has faced tougher competition, but questions her motivation and slowing speed. He sees Montana as never assertive enough, so he expects Lee to win a split decision.
Jacob leans Andrea Lee, but with low confidence. He notes that both fighters are better than their records suggest. He worries that if Montana commits to wrestling, Andrea could be on her back for 15 minutes. However, he thinks Andrea is the better striker and can defend takedowns with footwork. He expects a close fight and goes with Andrea, but is not confident.
Lee is a skilled striker with an active Jiu-Jitsu game, while De La Rosa relies on grappling but lacks striking. Lee should land strikes and stuff takedowns, and may even catch a submission off her back. However, Lee can be flaky if she gets demoralized. Leaning Lee by submission, but passing on betting due to line movement.
Paul picks Lee, noting that De La Rosa has not been dominant with her grappling recently. Lee has better striking and takedown defense. Paul expects Lee to win on volume and outpoint De La Rosa over three rounds.
The Guru picks Andrea Lee because she does damage well and is a more physical specimen with less wasted weight. He thinks her age (35) and lack of children give her anger and aggression, especially in the third round. He notes Montana De La Rosa has a decent grappling game but Lee did better on the feet against Macy Barber. He expects Lee to do better on the feet and win.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miranda Maverick | 0 | 36 of 102 | 35% | 59 of 126 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 | 0 | 0:42 |
| Andrea Lee | 0 | 66 of 136 | 48% | 106 of 180 | 3 of 8 | 37% | 0 | 0 | 3:05 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Miranda Maverick | 0 | 12 of 31 | 38% | 14 of 33 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:40 |
| Andrea Lee | 0 | 24 of 43 | 55% | 31 of 51 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:20 | |
| 2 | Miranda Maverick | 0 | 9 of 34 | 26% | 14 of 39 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Andrea Lee | 0 | 23 of 48 | 47% | 47 of 74 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:32 | |
| 3 | Miranda Maverick | 0 | 15 of 37 | 40% | 31 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Andrea Lee | 0 | 19 of 45 | 42% | 28 of 55 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:13 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miranda Maverick | 36 of 102 | 35% | 14 of 72 | 13 of 19 | 9 of 11 | 32 of 96 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 3 |
| Andrea Lee | 66 of 136 | 48% | 28 of 89 | 16 of 25 | 22 of 22 | 60 of 128 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Miranda Maverick | 12 of 31 | 38% | 4 of 20 | 4 of 6 | 4 of 5 | 9 of 28 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Andrea Lee | 24 of 43 | 55% | 9 of 25 | 5 of 8 | 10 of 10 | 23 of 41 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Miranda Maverick | 9 of 34 | 26% | 4 of 26 | 3 of 5 | 2 of 3 | 9 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Andrea Lee | 23 of 48 | 47% | 11 of 34 | 4 of 6 | 8 of 8 | 21 of 46 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Miranda Maverick | 15 of 37 | 40% | 6 of 26 | 6 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 14 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 |
| Andrea Lee | 19 of 45 | 42% | 8 of 30 | 7 of 11 | 4 of 4 | 16 of 41 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Miranda Maverick, citing her pressure, takedowns, and toughness. He notes that Andrea Lee has fought tougher competition but is on a three-fight skid. He cautions that the moneyline is juiced and recommends the over 2.5 rounds as a lock.
Big Brady picks Miranda Maverick to win, citing her youth (26 vs 35) and physical strength as key advantages. He notes Andrea Lee's poor takedown defense (54%) and history of being taken down by lesser wrestlers, expecting Maverick to get the fight to the mat and grind out a decision. He acknowledges Lee's underrated striking but believes Maverick's wrestling and control will be too much. He mentions the line is moving but says he's probably not betting this one.
Cody picks Lee, noting her high volume striking (100+ significant strikes) compared to Maverick's lower output. He questions Maverick's takedown effectiveness and believes Lee can win on the feet. He sees plus 170 as good value and picks Lee.
Daniel picks Miranda Maverick but expresses hesitation about the betting line. He notes that Andrea Lee is physically strong and that Maverick's striking is her weakest area. He worries that Lee's strength could cause problems, but ultimately believes Maverick's grappling advantage will prevail. He says he is staying away from the line.
Daniel Vreeland passes on this fight, noting Andrea Lee's decline and Miranda Maverick's inconsistency. He considered taking the dog on Lee but decided against it given her recent performances.
Jeff picks Miranda Maverick, noting that Andrea Lee is on a three-fight skid and hasn't won since 2021. He believes Maverick is a younger, stronger fighter who can impose her will. He acknowledges Lee's physical strength but thinks Maverick's grappling and overall game will be too much. He is not betting the line, however, as he finds it unappealing.
Maverick is younger, stronger, and will dominate in the clinch and on the ground. Lee may be the better technical striker but has a history of breaking under pressure. Maverick grinds out a decision win.
Paul picks Lee, arguing that the line is inflated by Maverick's recent win over low-level competition. He notes Lee has fought tougher opponents and has better volume striking. He believes Maverick's wrestling is not as effective against higher-level grapplers, and Lee can outwork her on the feet. He sees Lee as a clear underdog value.
The MMA Guru picks Miranda Maverick, citing her youth, improvement at Team Elevation, and full focus on MMA now that she's done with education. He notes Andrea Lee's frustration when taken down and lack of calmness on bottom. He believes Maverick's grappling will be key, though he acknowledges Lee's stronger strength of schedule and mentions he might advise betting on Lee if her odds become bigger underdog.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natália Silva | 0 | 43 of 125 | 34% | 43 of 125 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Andrea Lee | 0 | 70 of 174 | 40% | 70 of 174 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Natália Silva | 0 | 14 of 49 | 28% | 14 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Andrea Lee | 0 | 26 of 62 | 41% | 26 of 62 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Natália Silva | 0 | 18 of 42 | 42% | 18 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Andrea Lee | 0 | 22 of 50 | 44% | 22 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Natália Silva | 0 | 11 of 34 | 32% | 11 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Andrea Lee | 0 | 22 of 62 | 35% | 22 of 62 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natália Silva | 43 of 125 | 34% | 12 of 74 | 11 of 23 | 20 of 28 | 43 of 125 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Andrea Lee | 70 of 174 | 40% | 34 of 111 | 17 of 43 | 19 of 20 | 70 of 174 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Natália Silva | 14 of 49 | 28% | 4 of 29 | 3 of 7 | 7 of 13 | 14 of 49 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Andrea Lee | 26 of 62 | 41% | 13 of 38 | 6 of 16 | 7 of 8 | 26 of 62 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Natália Silva | 18 of 42 | 42% | 5 of 24 | 6 of 10 | 7 of 8 | 18 of 42 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Andrea Lee | 22 of 50 | 44% | 8 of 29 | 9 of 16 | 5 of 5 | 22 of 50 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Natália Silva | 11 of 34 | 32% | 3 of 21 | 2 of 6 | 6 of 7 | 11 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Andrea Lee | 22 of 62 | 35% | 13 of 44 | 2 of 11 | 7 of 7 | 22 of 62 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo is confident in Natália Silva, citing her well-rounded skills, power that carries into later rounds, and ability to turn fights into brawls. He notes that Andrea Lee is tough and technical but believes Silva is the better striker and grappler, and that Lee won't be able to take her down. He has Silva in a parlay and also suggests betting the under on Andrea Lee's takedown line.
Big Brady leans toward Natália Silva despite the wide line, citing her power advantage and elite takedown defense. He notes Andrea Lee has good volume and underrated skills, but Silva lands harder shots and may mix in takedowns. He expects the fight to go the distance with Silva winning by decision, similar to Lee's fight with Mayra Bueno Silva.
Cody sees Silva as the complete package with good striking and fast hands, while Lee is slowing down and has a wonky training situation. He expects Silva to piece up Lee, but warns that women's MMA is unpredictable.
Daniel Levi picks Andrea Lee as an underdog, citing her experience and savvy. He notes that Silva is small for the weight class and has shown weaknesses when taken down, as Lee's grappling is better than Silva's previous opponents. Levi thinks Lee can win via grappling and that the plus money is valuable. He also likes the plus 3.5 spread. However, he acknowledges Silva is the real deal and is not going heavy on the bet.
Lucrative James picks Natália Silva to win, citing her excellent distance management and takedown defense. He expects Silva to dictate the striking range and potentially get takedowns of her own, as Andrea Lee has historically lost when taken down and controlled on the ground. He sees the fight going to a decision with Silva edging it out 29-28 or 30-27.
Silva's movement and striking accuracy should be too much for Lee. She lands significant strikes from distance and has shown finishing ability. However, the moneyline is too wide given Lee's experience and potential grappling success. Prefer Silva by decision prop as a better value.
The MMA Guru confidently picks Natália Silva, calling her one of the rare good female MMA prospects. He highlights her stunning striking performances and dominant wins over Jasmine Jasudavicius and Tereza Bledá. He notes Andrea Lee has taken a lot of damage and is 34, while Silva is 26 and improving. He expects Silva to win by decision but thinks Lee will make it tough.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maycee Barber | 0 | 39 of 103 | 37% | 57 of 125 | 5 of 5 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 5:20 |
| Andrea Lee | 0 | 48 of 127 | 37% | 66 of 158 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 0:45 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maycee Barber | 0 | 12 of 35 | 34% | 16 of 39 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:06 |
| Andrea Lee | 0 | 17 of 45 | 37% | 22 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Maycee Barber | 0 | 15 of 38 | 39% | 26 of 52 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:54 |
| Andrea Lee | 0 | 17 of 43 | 39% | 24 of 57 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 | |
| 3 | Maycee Barber | 0 | 12 of 30 | 40% | 15 of 34 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:20 |
| Andrea Lee | 0 | 14 of 39 | 35% | 20 of 46 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:43 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maycee Barber | 39 of 103 | 37% | 10 of 57 | 15 of 27 | 14 of 19 | 34 of 97 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 |
| Andrea Lee | 48 of 127 | 37% | 31 of 97 | 9 of 20 | 8 of 10 | 38 of 113 | 3 of 7 | 7 of 7 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maycee Barber | 12 of 35 | 34% | 3 of 18 | 5 of 11 | 4 of 6 | 12 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Andrea Lee | 17 of 45 | 37% | 11 of 35 | 2 of 6 | 4 of 4 | 11 of 38 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 5 | |
| 2 | Maycee Barber | 15 of 38 | 39% | 6 of 23 | 2 of 6 | 7 of 9 | 14 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Andrea Lee | 17 of 43 | 39% | 11 of 31 | 2 of 6 | 4 of 6 | 17 of 42 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Maycee Barber | 12 of 30 | 40% | 1 of 16 | 8 of 10 | 3 of 4 | 8 of 25 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 |
| Andrea Lee | 14 of 39 | 35% | 9 of 31 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 33 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 2 |
Angelo picks Andrea Lee as an underdog, arguing that Barber is overrated and a decision fighter who can break mentally. He notes that Lee is a technical striker with improved grappling and has fought tougher competition. He believes Lee can keep the fight standing and out-strike Barber, and that Barber's takedowns may not be enough. He says no bet on this fight due to unknowns.
Big Brady picks Andrea Lee as a dog, believing the fight will be closer than the odds indicate. He thinks Lee is the better striker with more volume, while Barber relies on physical strength and takedowns. Brady notes Barber's striking is still a work in progress and that Lee can work back to her feet if taken down. He predicts a split decision win for Lee, possibly a robbery, and expects the fight to go the distance.
Cody does not make a clear pick for this fight. He discusses the matchup, noting Barber's youth and cardio advantage but also her lack of takedowns in recent fights. He sees a path for Lee if she can keep the fight standing and outstrike Barber, but he is wary of Lee's tendency to fatigue. He ultimately says he wants nothing to do with the line, finding it too wide.
Connor picks Barber because Lee has a history of crumbling under pressure and bullying. He notes Barber's recent assertiveness and willingness to clinch and use her strength. He acknowledges Barber's poor kickboxing but thinks she will force a clinch-heavy fight where Lee fades.
Jacob picks Barber but admits he is biased against Lee. He thinks Barber can get takedowns and wear Lee down, similar to how Viviane Araujo did. He warns that Barber is a decision fighter and should not be put in parlays. He acknowledges Lee is dangerous on the feet and that Barber's takedowns are key.
The host believes Barber's strength and grappling improvements at Team Alpha Male will be key. He expects Barber to assert herself early, counter Lee's combinations, and eventually get clinch situations where she can rough Lee up against the cage. He notes that if Lee gets into a flow state it could be trouble, but Barber's power and explosiveness should deter her. He predicts Barber wins by decision.
The Guru picks Barber, citing her improved grappling and youth (24 vs 34). He thinks Barber can take Lee down and slow her down as the fight progresses, winning the last two rounds via decision. He notes Lee's tendency to fade when wrestled.
Zane picks Barber but notes it could easily be a fight where Barber flops around and Lee jabs her. He highlights Barber's physicality and willingness to make opponents deal with her strength. He also notes Barber's reliable third-round surge if things aren't going well.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Viviane Araújo | 0 | 39 of 79 | 49% | 96 of 160 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 2 | 0 | 10:40 |
| Andrea Lee | 1 | 47 of 82 | 57% | 64 of 103 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:48 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Viviane Araújo | 0 | 18 of 34 | 52% | 31 of 48 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:48 |
| Andrea Lee | 1 | 25 of 51 | 49% | 29 of 55 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:26 | |
| 2 | Viviane Araújo | 0 | 14 of 27 | 51% | 48 of 83 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 0 | 4:26 |
| Andrea Lee | 0 | 9 of 10 | 90% | 13 of 14 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Viviane Araújo | 0 | 7 of 18 | 38% | 17 of 29 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:26 |
| Andrea Lee | 0 | 13 of 21 | 61% | 22 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:22 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Viviane Araújo | 39 of 79 | 49% | 25 of 63 | 9 of 11 | 5 of 5 | 32 of 66 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 13 |
| Andrea Lee | 47 of 82 | 57% | 34 of 65 | 9 of 13 | 4 of 4 | 36 of 64 | 7 of 11 | 4 of 7 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Viviane Araújo | 18 of 34 | 52% | 11 of 26 | 5 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 17 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 |
| Andrea Lee | 25 of 51 | 49% | 19 of 42 | 4 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 15 of 34 | 6 of 10 | 4 of 7 | |
| 2 | Viviane Araújo | 14 of 27 | 51% | 10 of 22 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 9 |
| Andrea Lee | 9 of 10 | 90% | 5 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Viviane Araújo | 7 of 18 | 38% | 4 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
| Andrea Lee | 13 of 21 | 61% | 10 of 17 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Cody picks Andrea Lee, noting her improved takedown defense and cardio. He thinks Araújo has cardio issues and fades in the third round. He believes Lee will push the pace, tire Araújo out, and win by volume. He mentions Lee's training with Tony Kelley and her social media showing hard work.
Paul is cautious, warning that Araújo is more of a wrestler and Lee's takedown defense is her kryptonite. He says it could be a situation where Araújo takes Lee down and holds top control, making it risky. He advises not putting this on a top ticket.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrea Lee | 0 | 47 of 154 | 30% | 47 of 154 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:39 |
| Cynthia Calvillo | 0 | 84 of 210 | 40% | 85 of 211 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andrea Lee | 0 | 25 of 87 | 28% | 25 of 87 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:39 |
| Cynthia Calvillo | 0 | 43 of 116 | 37% | 44 of 117 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Andrea Lee | 0 | 22 of 67 | 32% | 22 of 67 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Cynthia Calvillo | 0 | 41 of 94 | 43% | 41 of 94 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrea Lee | 47 of 154 | 30% | 18 of 99 | 21 of 46 | 8 of 9 | 47 of 154 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Cynthia Calvillo | 84 of 210 | 40% | 46 of 155 | 30 of 45 | 8 of 10 | 83 of 208 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andrea Lee | 25 of 87 | 28% | 11 of 62 | 10 of 20 | 4 of 5 | 25 of 87 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Cynthia Calvillo | 43 of 116 | 37% | 27 of 92 | 12 of 19 | 4 of 5 | 43 of 115 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Andrea Lee | 22 of 67 | 32% | 7 of 37 | 11 of 26 | 4 of 4 | 22 of 67 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Cynthia Calvillo | 41 of 94 | 43% | 19 of 63 | 18 of 26 | 4 of 5 | 40 of 93 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Andrea Lee, citing her polished striking and comfort on the feet. He notes that Calvillo looks uncomfortable striking and that Lee has improved grappling. Angelo has a moneyline bet on Lee at near even money and thinks she can control the striking exchanges.
Big Brady picks Cynthia Calvillo but is hesitant, noting Andrea Lee has superior striking volume and accuracy. However, he highlights Lee's poor takedown defense (57%) and that she has been taken down in every UFC fight except one. Brady believes Calvillo can win by wrestling, but recalls her fight against Chookagian where she didn't wrestle enough, causing doubt.
Cody has a gut feeling that Calvillo might lose. He notes that Lee has been working on her wrestling and that Calvillo is 1-2 at 125 lbs. He thinks if Lee can stuff takedowns, she can out-strike Calvillo. He calls it a 'dog or pass' and might take a small shot on Lee.
Daniel Levi picks Cynthia Calvillo, citing her dominant ground game and ability to get takedowns. He notes that Andrea Lee has been taken down multiple times by previous opponents (Roxanne Modafferi, Lauren Murphy, Joanne Calderwood) and believes Calvillo only needs one or two takedowns to win rounds or secure a finish. Levi acknowledges Lee's striking volume but thinks Calvillo's grappling will be the difference.
Jacob picks Cynthia Calvillo, believing she will dominate on the ground. He thinks Calvillo will get in the pocket, take Lee down, and control the fight. Jacob is a big Calvillo fan and thinks the UFC gave her a winnable matchup after her loss to Andrade.
Paul believes Calvillo has a massive wrestling advantage and should spam takedowns. He notes that Andrea Lee gives up takedowns to everyone. He thinks Calvillo can control the fight on the ground and win a decision.
The Guru picks Cynthia Calvillo by unanimous decision (29-27). He expects Andrea Lee to win the first round on the feet, but Calvillo's takedowns and ground control in rounds two and three will secure the win. Calvillo will get a 10-8 in the third due to dominant ground and pound.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrea Lee | 0 | 45 of 62 | 72% | 88 of 108 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 3 | 0 | 2:11 |
| Antonina Shevchenko | 0 | 23 of 41 | 56% | 36 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 3:58 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andrea Lee | 0 | 28 of 44 | 63% | 43 of 61 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:31 |
| Antonina Shevchenko | 0 | 22 of 39 | 56% | 34 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Andrea Lee | 0 | 17 of 18 | 94% | 45 of 47 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 3 | 0 | 0:40 |
| Antonina Shevchenko | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 3:58 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrea Lee | 45 of 62 | 72% | 32 of 43 | 11 of 15 | 2 of 4 | 19 of 35 | 6 of 6 | 20 of 21 |
| Antonina Shevchenko | 23 of 41 | 56% | 13 of 30 | 8 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 15 of 32 | 8 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andrea Lee | 28 of 44 | 63% | 15 of 25 | 11 of 15 | 2 of 4 | 18 of 34 | 6 of 6 | 4 of 4 |
| Antonina Shevchenko | 22 of 39 | 56% | 13 of 29 | 8 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 30 | 8 of 9 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Andrea Lee | 17 of 18 | 94% | 17 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 17 |
| Antonina Shevchenko | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Lee throws high volume (5.58 strikes/min) and has good striking defense. Shevchenko has poor takedown defense and has been taken down by strikers. Lee can mix in takedowns and control the fight. The line has shifted heavily towards Lee, and I think she wins a decision as a slight underdog.
Cody picks Lee, arguing that Shevchenko has no power and Lee's volume will be decisive. He notes that Lee's takedown defense is her weakness, but Shevchenko is not a wrestler. Cody believes Lee will win by decision, using her striking output.
Daniel Levi picks Antonina Shevchenko, citing Andrea Lee's cardio issues and decline since her breakup. He notes that Lee gasses out and becomes flat-footed, while Shevchenko is more disciplined and can clinch and knee. Levi thinks Shevchenko will dominate in the clinch and win a 30-27 decision. He also mentions Shevchenko's improved ground game.
The host picks Shevchenko, giving her the slight advantage in striking. He notes she is the better technical striker and taller, which should help maintain distance. He acknowledges concerns about her grappling defense but thinks Lee is unlikely to implement a wrestling game plan. He predicts a decision win for Shevchenko but says he is not lock confident.
Paul picks Lee, noting that Shevchenko is not her sister and lacks power. He believes Lee's volume and takedown defense will be key, though he is not confident. Paul mentions that Lee has been losing due to takedowns, but Shevchenko is not a wrestler.
The MMA Guru picks Antonina Shevchenko, but with low confidence, admitting he flipped a coin. He thinks Shevchenko is slightly more technical on the feet and benefits from training with her sister Valentina. He acknowledges Andrea Lee has a grappling advantage but predicts a split decision 29-28 for Shevchenko.
Expert Picks (7)
Angelo is confident in Natália Silva, citing her well-rounded skills, power that carries into later rounds, and ability to turn fights into brawls. He notes that Andrea Lee is tough and technical but believes Silva is the better striker and grappler, and that Lee won't be able to take her down. He has Silva in a parlay and also suggests betting the under on Andrea Lee's takedown line.
Big Brady leans toward Natália Silva despite the wide line, citing her power advantage and elite takedown defense. He notes Andrea Lee has good volume and underrated skills, but Silva lands harder shots and may mix in takedowns. He expects the fight to go the distance with Silva winning by decision, similar to Lee's fight with Mayra Bueno Silva.
Cody sees Silva as the complete package with good striking and fast hands, while Lee is slowing down and has a wonky training situation. He expects Silva to piece up Lee, but warns that women's MMA is unpredictable.
Daniel Levi picks Andrea Lee as an underdog, citing her experience and savvy. He notes that Silva is small for the weight class and has shown weaknesses when taken down, as Lee's grappling is better than Silva's previous opponents. Levi thinks Lee can win via grappling and that the plus money is valuable. He also likes the plus 3.5 spread. However, he acknowledges Silva is the real deal and is not going heavy on the bet.
Lucrative James picks Natália Silva to win, citing her excellent distance management and takedown defense. He expects Silva to dictate the striking range and potentially get takedowns of her own, as Andrea Lee has historically lost when taken down and controlled on the ground. He sees the fight going to a decision with Silva edging it out 29-28 or 30-27.
Silva's movement and striking accuracy should be too much for Lee. She lands significant strikes from distance and has shown finishing ability. However, the moneyline is too wide given Lee's experience and potential grappling success. Prefer Silva by decision prop as a better value.
The MMA Guru confidently picks Natália Silva, calling her one of the rare good female MMA prospects. He highlights her stunning striking performances and dominant wins over Jasmine Jasudavicius and Tereza Bledá. He notes Andrea Lee has taken a lot of damage and is 34, while Silva is 26 and improving. He expects Silva to win by decision but thinks Lee will make it tough.
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