Career Averages - Zhang Weili
Career Averages - Amanda Lemos
Zhang Weili
Amanda Lemos
Zhang Weili - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valentina Shevchenko | 0 | 41 of 68 | 60% | 137 of 186 | 5 of 6 | 83% | 0 | 0 | 13:24 |
| Zhang Weili | 0 | 32 of 98 | 32% | 80 of 161 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:46 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Valentina Shevchenko | 0 | 8 of 13 | 61% | 21 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:30 |
| Zhang Weili | 0 | 7 of 17 | 41% | 15 of 25 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:23 | |
| 2 | Valentina Shevchenko | 0 | 9 of 10 | 90% | 34 of 38 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:09 |
| Zhang Weili | 0 | 1 of 8 | 12% | 12 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Valentina Shevchenko | 0 | 7 of 18 | 38% | 19 of 32 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:43 |
| Zhang Weili | 0 | 9 of 26 | 34% | 12 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:13 | |
| 4 | Valentina Shevchenko | 0 | 13 of 21 | 61% | 31 of 45 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:16 |
| Zhang Weili | 0 | 10 of 30 | 33% | 19 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Valentina Shevchenko | 0 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 32 of 45 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:46 |
| Zhang Weili | 0 | 5 of 17 | 29% | 22 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valentina Shevchenko | 41 of 68 | 60% | 21 of 44 | 14 of 17 | 6 of 7 | 27 of 47 | 8 of 14 | 6 of 7 |
| Zhang Weili | 32 of 98 | 32% | 9 of 59 | 13 of 26 | 10 of 13 | 25 of 90 | 7 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Valentina Shevchenko | 8 of 13 | 61% | 4 of 8 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 8 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Zhang Weili | 7 of 17 | 41% | 4 of 12 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 14 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Valentina Shevchenko | 9 of 10 | 90% | 6 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 4 |
| Zhang Weili | 1 of 8 | 12% | 0 of 4 | 0 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Valentina Shevchenko | 7 of 18 | 38% | 5 of 15 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 13 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 2 |
| Zhang Weili | 9 of 26 | 34% | 1 of 15 | 4 of 7 | 4 of 4 | 8 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Valentina Shevchenko | 13 of 21 | 61% | 5 of 11 | 6 of 7 | 2 of 3 | 11 of 18 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Zhang Weili | 10 of 30 | 33% | 3 of 17 | 4 of 9 | 3 of 4 | 9 of 29 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Valentina Shevchenko | 4 of 6 | 66% | 1 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
| Zhang Weili | 5 of 17 | 29% | 1 of 11 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 14 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo leans towards Zhang Weili, citing her superior wrestling and athleticism. He believes Weili's clean double-leg takedowns will be effective against Valentina Shevchenko, who relies on striking to set up takedowns. He acknowledges Shevchenko's experience and durability but thinks Weili's speed and wrestling will be the difference.
Big Brady leans Valentina Shevchenko, citing her size advantage and natural weight class. He notes Shevchenko's wrestling ability, having taken down Manon Fiorot, and believes she can get takedowns on Zhang Weili, who was taken down multiple times by Rose Namajunas. However, he acknowledges Zhang's physical strength and says it wouldn't shock him if Zhang gets top position. Brady is not betting on this fight and predicts a decision win for Shevchenko.
Cody picks Valentina due to her size, experience, and well-rounded skills. He notes that she is an elite kickboxer and wrestler, and that her trilogy with Grasso was a blip. He highlights that Zhang has had takedown defense issues in the past, and that Valentina consistently scores takedowns. He believes Valentina's size and strength will be key, and that she will win by decision.
Connor picks Shevchenko but is hesitant, calling it a coin flip. He argues that Shevchenko's simple, patient style and mental stamina will frustrate Zhang, who struggles with distance and initiating exchanges. He notes that Zhang's wrestling might be neutralized by Shevchenko's clinch and top control, and that Zhang has been vulnerable when taken down.
Daniel respects Shevchenko's technical striking and well-rounded game, but sees Zhang as the fighter making rapid improvements, especially in wrestling. He notes that Zhang has outgrappled elite wrestlers like Carla Esparza and Tatiana Suarez, while Shevchenko hasn't shown the same evolution. He also likes the dog odds on Zhang and believes she can become a double champ.
Lucrative James picks Valentina Shevchenko to win, stating she is the greatest women's fighter of all time. He believes her wrestling and grappling are superior to Zhang's, and she can outskill her on the feet. He notes both fighters have losses due to grappling, but trusts Shevchenko's takedown accuracy and experience against tougher opponents. He expects Shevchenko to control the fight and win a decision or possibly a late submission.
Shevchenko's size and overall MMA advantages muzzle Zhang's style. She mixes martial arts well, sets up takedowns behind strikes, and wins on the scorecards.
Paul agrees with Cody, citing Valentina's size advantage and superior wrestling. He notes that both fighters are similar in age but that Valentina is the bigger fighter and has a better takedown ratio. He thinks the fight will come down to grappling and top position, and that Valentina will win those exchanges. He also mentions that Valentina is more technical on the feet.
The Guru picks Zhang Weili to win by split decision. He believes Zhang is a better fighter than Alexa Grasso and Manon Fiorot, who gave Shevchenko close fights. He notes Shevchenko's recent performances have been less dominant, and Zhang's grappling and striking should be competitive. The Guru also suggests promotional favoritism towards the Chinese market could influence a close decision.
Zane also picks Shevchenko hesitantly, emphasizing that Zhang's game plan may not work against Shevchenko's patience. He notes that Zhang has become a punch-and-clutch fighter but still struggles with range, and Shevchenko will force her to initiate. He sees Shevchenko's ability to maintain a low-risk fight as key.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zhang Weili | 0 | 53 of 87 | 60% | 232 of 299 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 | 0 | 10:54 |
| Tatiana Suarez | 0 | 12 of 36 | 33% | 63 of 95 | 1 of 15 | 6% | 0 | 0 | 5:56 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zhang Weili | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 31 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:09 |
| Tatiana Suarez | 0 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 23 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:08 | |
| 2 | Zhang Weili | 0 | 10 of 17 | 58% | 52 of 69 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:19 |
| Tatiana Suarez | 0 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 3 of 6 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:27 | |
| 3 | Zhang Weili | 0 | 19 of 42 | 45% | 33 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Tatiana Suarez | 0 | 8 of 21 | 38% | 9 of 22 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:44 | |
| 4 | Zhang Weili | 0 | 7 of 7 | 100% | 53 of 60 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 4:27 |
| Tatiana Suarez | 0 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 21 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Zhang Weili | 0 | 16 of 19 | 84% | 63 of 75 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:53 |
| Tatiana Suarez | 0 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 7 of 14 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:37 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zhang Weili | 53 of 87 | 60% | 32 of 56 | 16 of 21 | 5 of 10 | 29 of 62 | 11 of 11 | 13 of 14 |
| Tatiana Suarez | 12 of 36 | 33% | 1 of 16 | 2 of 6 | 9 of 14 | 10 of 33 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zhang Weili | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Tatiana Suarez | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Zhang Weili | 10 of 17 | 58% | 7 of 10 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 3 | 4 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 5 |
| Tatiana Suarez | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Zhang Weili | 19 of 42 | 45% | 11 of 28 | 7 of 10 | 1 of 4 | 16 of 39 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Tatiana Suarez | 8 of 21 | 38% | 0 of 7 | 2 of 5 | 6 of 9 | 6 of 18 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Zhang Weili | 7 of 7 | 100% | 5 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
| Tatiana Suarez | 3 of 5 | 60% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Zhang Weili | 16 of 19 | 84% | 9 of 12 | 6 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 6 | 7 of 7 | 5 of 6 |
| Tatiana Suarez | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Tatiana Suarez, believing her grappling will be a level above Zhang Weili's. He notes that Zhang has been taken down easily by lesser grapplers like Yan Xiaonan and Rose Namajunas. He is concerned about Suarez's cardio, as she has never gone 25 minutes, but thinks she will get a submission in the second round. He predicts a second-round submission.
Connor picks Zhang, citing her striking advantage and Suarez's questionable cardio. He thinks Zhang can use her kicks and movement to keep Suarez at range and tire her out. He notes that Suarez has never faced a five-round fight and faded in the third round against Nina Nunes. He also points out that Zhang has good takedown defense and can get back to her feet. However, he admits he could see Suarez winning if she gets top position early.
Daniel Levi mentions the co-main event where Zhang Weili defends her belt against undefeated Tatiana Suarez. He notes that the fight is a dead pick at -110 each and asks the audience whether they think Zhang Weili retains or if Suarez becomes champion. He does not express a personal opinion or pick a winner.
Suarez's smothering wrestling and improving BJJ are expected to open up a submission opportunity. Zhang has the striking advantage but will struggle to stop Suarez's chain wrestling and strength. Zhang's wrestling has improved but not enough to overcome Suarez. The pick is for Suarez to find the neck and force a submission.
Zane picks Suarez despite acknowledging Zhang's advantages in striking and cardio. He believes Suarez's wrestling will be the difference, as Zhang tends to tie up and Suarez is a better wrestler. He is concerned about Suarez's cardio and lack of five-round experience, but thinks she can get a submission or control on top. He notes that Zhang's best path is to jab and kick from range, but he doubts she will do that consistently.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zhang Weili | 0 | 106 of 157 | 67% | 256 of 327 | 6 of 9 | 66% | 2 | 0 | 12:44 |
| Yan Xiaonan | 1 | 43 of 85 | 50% | 73 of 116 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 2:20 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zhang Weili | 0 | 17 of 30 | 56% | 20 of 33 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:04 |
| Yan Xiaonan | 0 | 7 of 23 | 30% | 7 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:20 | |
| 2 | Zhang Weili | 0 | 54 of 59 | 91% | 66 of 71 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 3:51 |
| Yan Xiaonan | 0 | 4 of 13 | 30% | 7 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:10 | |
| 3 | Zhang Weili | 0 | 12 of 25 | 48% | 39 of 56 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
| Yan Xiaonan | 1 | 26 of 34 | 76% | 33 of 41 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:42 | |
| 4 | Zhang Weili | 0 | 19 of 33 | 57% | 59 of 86 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:42 |
| Yan Xiaonan | 0 | 4 of 10 | 40% | 10 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 | |
| 5 | Zhang Weili | 0 | 4 of 10 | 40% | 72 of 81 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:50 |
| Yan Xiaonan | 0 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 16 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zhang Weili | 106 of 157 | 67% | 84 of 119 | 13 of 19 | 9 of 19 | 34 of 78 | 4 of 4 | 68 of 75 |
| Yan Xiaonan | 43 of 85 | 50% | 21 of 60 | 4 of 6 | 18 of 19 | 24 of 64 | 3 of 4 | 16 of 17 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zhang Weili | 17 of 30 | 56% | 9 of 16 | 4 of 6 | 4 of 8 | 13 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 |
| Yan Xiaonan | 7 of 23 | 30% | 6 of 20 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 19 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 2 | |
| 2 | Zhang Weili | 54 of 59 | 91% | 51 of 54 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 4 | 6 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 48 of 49 |
| Yan Xiaonan | 4 of 13 | 30% | 4 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Zhang Weili | 12 of 25 | 48% | 4 of 14 | 5 of 6 | 3 of 5 | 8 of 21 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Yan Xiaonan | 26 of 34 | 76% | 7 of 15 | 3 of 3 | 16 of 16 | 9 of 17 | 2 of 2 | 15 of 15 | |
| 4 | Zhang Weili | 19 of 33 | 57% | 16 of 26 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 5 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 19 |
| Yan Xiaonan | 4 of 10 | 40% | 4 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Zhang Weili | 4 of 10 | 40% | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
| Yan Xiaonan | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo is most confident in Zhang Weili, calling her better in every aspect of MMA. He notes her dominant performance against Amanda Lemos and believes she will easily defeat Yan Xiaonan. He recommends using her as a parlay anchor.
Cody sees a clear path for Zhang Weili via wrestling. He notes Yan Xiaonan has been taken down easily by Carla Esparza, Marina Rodriguez, and Mackenzie Dern, and has no get-up game. In contrast, Zhang Weili has excellent grappling, taking down Rose Namajunas five times and Joanna Jedrzejczyk three times. Cody believes Zhang can win on the feet too, but the path of least resistance is takedowns and ground control. He expects Zhang to grind Yan down and possibly secure a rear-naked choke or TKO.
Daniel Vreeland picks Zhang Weili, stating that Yan Xiaonan's path to victory is unclear. He notes that Weili is always balanced and in the right position, and that she can match volume. He also mentions that Weili beat Yan J at her own game, and that she has a huge grappling advantage if she chooses to use it.
Daniel Vreeland picks Yan Xiaonan as a massive underdog, citing his history of betting on her in every UFC fight and her value at plus odds. He acknowledges Zhang Weili's grappling advantage but believes Yan's improved takedown defense and striking can keep the fight standing, where she has the edge. He notes Yan's survival against McKenzie Dern as evidence of her improved ground game.
Jeff Fox picks Zhang Weili, agreeing with Vreeland. He notes that Weili is better everywhere in this fight, and that she will put on a one-sided beating. He also mentions that if she chose to grapple, she could finish the fight.
Lucrative James does not make a pick for this fight. He mentions it as the all-Chinese women's title fight but does not give a prediction. He only discusses it in the context of the card's strength.
Weili should put together a better body of work with a mixture of takedowns and striking damage to retain her title and win on the scorecards. However, -500 is not accurate as Yan Xiaonan is much livelier than the underdog price indicates and will provide resistance.
Paul sees this as a dogger pass situation, noting that women's strawweight fights are often close and go the distance. He acknowledges Zhang Weili should be the favorite but thinks the 4-to-1 price is too wide. Paul mentions Yan Xiaonan's path to victory is a first-round knockout, pointing out that Zhang has been knocked out before (by Rose Namajunas head kick) and that Yan just knocked out Jessica Andrade in the first round. He's tempted by the +385 underdog and the 30-to-1 round one prop.
The MMA Guru picks Zhang Weili to win by decision, dominating Yan Xiaonan. He praises Zhang's improvement and her performance against Amanda Lemos. He sees no path to victory for Yan and expects Zhang to use her grappling and striking to control the fight.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zhang Weili | 1 | 163 of 217 | 75% | 296 of 358 | 6 of 7 | 85% | 0 | 0 | 16:07 |
| Amanda Lemos | 0 | 24 of 63 | 38% | 29 of 68 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 0 | 0:34 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zhang Weili | 0 | 44 of 55 | 80% | 74 of 90 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:33 |
| Amanda Lemos | 0 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Zhang Weili | 0 | 16 of 20 | 80% | 49 of 54 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:47 |
| Amanda Lemos | 0 | 4 of 10 | 40% | 5 of 11 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Zhang Weili | 0 | 20 of 29 | 68% | 31 of 40 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:58 |
| Amanda Lemos | 0 | 5 of 12 | 41% | 8 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:19 | |
| 4 | Zhang Weili | 0 | 28 of 45 | 62% | 28 of 45 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:44 |
| Amanda Lemos | 0 | 13 of 37 | 35% | 13 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:07 | |
| 5 | Zhang Weili | 1 | 55 of 68 | 80% | 114 of 129 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:05 |
| Amanda Lemos | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zhang Weili | 163 of 217 | 75% | 106 of 150 | 37 of 42 | 20 of 25 | 50 of 77 | 17 of 18 | 96 of 122 |
| Amanda Lemos | 24 of 63 | 38% | 19 of 57 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 23 of 61 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zhang Weili | 44 of 55 | 80% | 36 of 47 | 6 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 41 of 52 |
| Amanda Lemos | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Zhang Weili | 16 of 20 | 80% | 10 of 13 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 5 of 8 | 4 of 4 | 7 of 8 |
| Amanda Lemos | 4 of 10 | 40% | 4 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Zhang Weili | 20 of 29 | 68% | 11 of 19 | 5 of 6 | 4 of 4 | 8 of 14 | 8 of 9 | 4 of 6 |
| Amanda Lemos | 5 of 12 | 41% | 4 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Zhang Weili | 28 of 45 | 62% | 7 of 17 | 9 of 12 | 12 of 16 | 26 of 43 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Amanda Lemos | 13 of 37 | 35% | 11 of 34 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 35 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Zhang Weili | 55 of 68 | 80% | 42 of 54 | 11 of 12 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 9 | 3 of 3 | 44 of 56 |
| Amanda Lemos | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo is very confident in Zhang Weili, believing she is head and shoulders above the division. He notes her improved wrestling and jiu-jitsu, impressive volume and cardio, and power. While Amanda Lemos has knockout power and good takedown defense, he thinks Weili can win everywhere and will keep the belt. He has her in a parlay with Marlon Vera.
Big Brady picks Zhang Weili to win by third-round knockout, acknowledging Lemos is dangerous early. He notes Lemos has power and can finish early, but her cardio fades after the first round. Zhang is improving and can wrestle, and Brady expects her to weather the early storm and take over in the later rounds.
Cody views Zhang as a complete fighter with high-level striking, wrestling, and cardio, while Lemos has not faced top competition and struggled against Angela Hill. He expects Zhang to dominate and likely win by decision, though he acknowledges women's MMA can be unpredictable. He leans towards the fight going the distance.
Daniel Levi picks Zhang Weili, believing she is one of the best athletes in the UFC and has shown tremendous improvement, especially in grappling after training with Henry Cejudo. He notes that Lemos is dangerous early with heavy hands and a guillotine, but her cardio fades after round two due to weight cuts. Levi expects Zhang to take the fight to the ground and possibly finish via submission or ground and pound. He is confident but acknowledges that the early stand-up exchanges will be a sweat for backers at -330.
Lucrative James picks Amanda Lemos as a value underdog, believing she hits like a truck and has a good chance of knocking out Zhang Weili. He acknowledges Zhang has more ways to win and better cardio, but at plus 250 he sees it as an easy system play. He advises against being greedy and sticking to the moneyline.
Zhang is well-rounded with power striking and strong wrestling. Lemos fades late and has been submitted before. Zhang will mix in takedowns and wear on Lemos, eventually finding a finish in the later rounds. The inside distance prop and under 3.5/4.5 rounds are good options.
The MMA Guru picks Zhang Weili over Amanda Lemos. He notes Lemos' age (36) and past losses to Jessica Andrade and Angela Hill. He believes Zhang's athleticism, speed, power, and improved grappling will be too much. He cites Zhang's dominant grappling performances against Joanna Jędrzejczyk and Carla Esparza. He expects Zhang to win, possibly by submission or TKO.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zhang Weili | 0 | 6 of 32 | 18% | 19 of 50 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 1 | 0:55 |
| Carla Esparza | 0 | 37 of 78 | 47% | 42 of 90 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 1 | 1:30 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zhang Weili | 0 | 5 of 27 | 18% | 18 of 45 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 1 | 0:53 |
| Carla Esparza | 0 | 33 of 65 | 50% | 38 of 77 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 1:00 | |
| 2 | Zhang Weili | 0 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 1 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Carla Esparza | 0 | 4 of 13 | 30% | 4 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:30 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zhang Weili | 6 of 32 | 18% | 6 of 31 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
| Carla Esparza | 37 of 78 | 47% | 20 of 58 | 8 of 9 | 9 of 11 | 24 of 63 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 15 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zhang Weili | 5 of 27 | 18% | 5 of 26 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
| Carla Esparza | 33 of 65 | 50% | 19 of 48 | 6 of 7 | 8 of 10 | 20 of 50 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 15 | |
| 2 | Zhang Weili | 1 of 5 | 20% | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Carla Esparza | 4 of 13 | 30% | 1 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo believes Weili is the more dangerous fighter with power and improved wrestling. He expects Esparza to shoot takedowns but thinks Weili's athleticism and preparation will allow her to defend and possibly out-grapple Esparza. He notes that Esparza's takedown defense is not great and that Weili could even get takedowns of her own. He picks Weili to win and expects Esparza to lose the belt quickly.
Big Brady picks Zhang Weili to win inside the distance, expecting a brutal beatdown. He believes Esparza's wrestling won't be enough to control Zhang for 25 minutes, and that on the feet it's not close. He compares it to Esparza's loss to Joanna Jedrzejczyk, where she couldn't get takedowns and got finished. He notes Zhang knocked out Joanna with a spinning back fist and looks like a killer.
Cody picks Zhang Weili to win inside the distance, specifically by TKO. He compares the fight to Esparza's first title loss to Joanna Jedrzejczyk, where Esparza was pressured against the cage and ate shots until the ref stopped it. He notes that Zhang hits very hard and that Esparza needs a perfect fight to get takedowns without taking damage. Cody believes Zhang's power and pressure will lead to a stoppage, and he prefers the inside distance prop over the moneyline.
Daniel Levi picks Zhang Weili to become a two-time champion, but he is hesitant due to the price (-350) and the danger of Carla Esparza's wrestling and top control. He acknowledges that Carla has a history of mauling opponents like Yan Xiaonan and making Rose Namajunas gun-shy. Levi believes Weili is more well-rounded, powerful, and athletic, and he predicts a finish. However, he warns that if Weili gets laid on, it could be a repeat of Carla's past upsets. He advises against betting Carla again after her big dog win over Rose, calling it a 'one-time well.'
The host believes Zhang will get an early knockout, likely in the first two rounds. He notes Esparza's grappling is a threat, especially if the fight goes long, but Zhang's power and improved grappling should be enough to finish early. He recommends Zhang inside the distance rather than the moneyline, expecting a KO or submission. He also notes the under 4.5 rounds at +100 as a good bet.
Paul also picks Zhang Weili inside the distance, but specifically likes the TKO prop. He notes that Esparza's takedown defense is suspect and that when she is forced to exchange, she tends to swell up. Paul highlights Zhang's pace, accuracy, and power, and believes that Esparza will not be able to get Zhang down. He warns against taking the KO prop specifically, recommending the inside distance prop instead to avoid being burned like he was with Poliana Viana.
The MMA Guru picks Zhang Weili, citing her improved grappling under Henry Cejudo and her ability to stuff takedowns and land knees and elbows. He notes Esparza's poor striking and her loss to Joanna Jedrzejczyk, who stuffed 16 takedowns. He predicts a first-round TKO, with Weili dominating on the feet and stuffing all takedowns.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zhang Weili | 1 | 69 of 102 | 67% | 94 of 130 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:51 |
| Joanna Jędrzejczyk | 0 | 43 of 85 | 50% | 44 of 86 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zhang Weili | 0 | 47 of 66 | 71% | 72 of 94 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 2:39 |
| Joanna Jędrzejczyk | 0 | 22 of 39 | 56% | 23 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Zhang Weili | 1 | 22 of 36 | 61% | 22 of 36 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
| Joanna Jędrzejczyk | 0 | 21 of 46 | 45% | 21 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zhang Weili | 69 of 102 | 67% | 52 of 80 | 12 of 15 | 5 of 7 | 29 of 59 | 5 of 5 | 35 of 38 |
| Joanna Jędrzejczyk | 43 of 85 | 50% | 20 of 56 | 9 of 9 | 14 of 20 | 39 of 81 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zhang Weili | 47 of 66 | 71% | 41 of 58 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 5 | 8 of 24 | 4 of 4 | 35 of 38 |
| Joanna Jędrzejczyk | 22 of 39 | 56% | 14 of 28 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 9 | 20 of 37 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Zhang Weili | 22 of 36 | 61% | 11 of 22 | 10 of 12 | 1 of 2 | 21 of 35 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Joanna Jędrzejczyk | 21 of 46 | 45% | 6 of 28 | 7 of 7 | 8 of 11 | 19 of 44 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Zhang Weili, citing her activity and improvements since the first fight. He acknowledges Joanna arguably won the first fight and has better wins, but believes the two-year layoff will hurt Joanna's timing. He notes Zhang has added wrestling and has been fighting top competition, while Joanna has been inactive.
Big Brady picks Zhang Weili to win by decision, but is hesitant due to the close nature of their first fight and Joanna's two-year layoff. He notes that Zhang has power and has been more active, while Joanna relies on volume and movement. He expects a razor-close decision and is not confident in the judges.
Cody picks Zhang, believing the three-round fight favors her power and aggression. He notes Zhang's wrestling improvements with Henry Cejudo and thinks she can steal rounds with takedowns. He acknowledges Joanna's cardio but thinks Zhang's power will be decisive.
Daniel Levi is on the fence for this fight. He acknowledges that the first fight was very close and that Joanna won the early rounds on the scorecards. He notes that Zhang has power and could land a big shot, but also that Joanna has better volume and defense. He mentions the layoff for Joanna could be a positive or negative, and that the fight being in Singapore might favor Zhang. He ultimately picks Zhang but says he has no idea and is not betting the fight.
Weili has more power and her shots are more impactful. Joanna is coming off a long layoff and this is a three-round fight, which favors Weili's power. Joanna's output may not be enough to overcome the damage Weili lands. Weili also has a wrestling edge. I think Weili wins a close decision or late finish.
Paul takes Joanna as an underdog, citing her speed and volume. He thinks Joanna won two of the first three rounds in the first fight and that a three-round fight favors her. He acknowledges Zhang's power but believes Joanna's pace and experience can edge a decision.
The MMA Guru picks Zhang Weili to win by 29-28 decision. He argues that the three-round fight favors Zhang's power over Joanna's volume, and that Zhang has improved her grappling significantly, which she may mix in. He criticizes Joanna's two-year layoff and lack of dedication compared to Zhang's focused training. He expects Joanna to win the third round but too little too late. He notes that Zhang's power shots were more effective in their first fight.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rose Namajunas | 0 | 86 of 168 | 51% | 130 of 219 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 7:00 |
| Zhang Weili | 0 | 83 of 173 | 47% | 162 of 272 | 5 of 11 | 45% | 0 | 0 | 3:37 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rose Namajunas | 0 | 20 of 36 | 55% | 22 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Zhang Weili | 0 | 22 of 38 | 57% | 36 of 56 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:08 | |
| 2 | Rose Namajunas | 0 | 20 of 45 | 44% | 22 of 48 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:31 |
| Zhang Weili | 0 | 16 of 39 | 41% | 21 of 44 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:38 | |
| 3 | Rose Namajunas | 0 | 14 of 38 | 36% | 16 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Zhang Weili | 0 | 25 of 51 | 49% | 29 of 55 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:57 | |
| 4 | Rose Namajunas | 0 | 14 of 23 | 60% | 39 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 2:32 |
| Zhang Weili | 0 | 12 of 27 | 44% | 32 of 50 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 0:54 | |
| 5 | Rose Namajunas | 0 | 18 of 26 | 69% | 31 of 44 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:55 |
| Zhang Weili | 0 | 8 of 18 | 44% | 44 of 67 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rose Namajunas | 86 of 168 | 51% | 57 of 131 | 12 of 17 | 17 of 20 | 60 of 136 | 6 of 6 | 20 of 26 |
| Zhang Weili | 83 of 173 | 47% | 36 of 112 | 14 of 16 | 33 of 45 | 64 of 138 | 5 of 8 | 14 of 27 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rose Namajunas | 20 of 36 | 55% | 11 of 25 | 3 of 5 | 6 of 6 | 17 of 33 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Zhang Weili | 22 of 38 | 57% | 6 of 19 | 5 of 5 | 11 of 14 | 19 of 34 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 | |
| 2 | Rose Namajunas | 20 of 45 | 44% | 12 of 36 | 5 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 16 of 39 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 4 |
| Zhang Weili | 16 of 39 | 41% | 6 of 28 | 4 of 5 | 6 of 6 | 13 of 36 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | |
| 3 | Rose Namajunas | 14 of 38 | 36% | 11 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 | 13 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Zhang Weili | 25 of 51 | 49% | 13 of 33 | 4 of 4 | 8 of 14 | 19 of 43 | 3 of 4 | 3 of 4 | |
| 4 | Rose Namajunas | 14 of 23 | 60% | 9 of 16 | 3 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 |
| Zhang Weili | 12 of 27 | 44% | 6 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 6 | 9 of 16 | 0 of 2 | 3 of 9 | |
| 5 | Rose Namajunas | 18 of 26 | 69% | 14 of 21 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 4 | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 17 |
| Zhang Weili | 8 of 18 | 44% | 5 of 12 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 5 | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 9 |
Angelo picks Zhang Weili, believing she will make adjustments after the first fight. He thinks Weili will protect her chin, push the pace, and use her boxing to outwork Rose. He notes that Rose's win came from a single head kick and that there wasn't much to analyze from the short fight. He sees Weili's power and determination as key factors.
Big Brady picks Zhang Weili to win by decision. He notes Zhang's power, volume, and cardio advantage, while Rose may slow down as the fight goes on. Brady thinks the first few rounds will be competitive, but Zhang's pressure and durability will wear on Rose. He also mentions Zhang's move to Fight Ready and her takedown potential, though Rose is dangerous on the ground. He expects Zhang to win down the stretch, possibly with a late finish.
Cody agrees with Paul, citing Rose's precision striking and ability to find openings. He notes Zhang's durability but believes Rose's technique and submission game give her the edge. He compares it to Rose's first win over Joanna and sees value in the champion as an underdog.
Daniel Levi picks Rose Namajunas to defend her belt, expressing that the line is disrespectful to Rose at plus 105. He believes Rose is the better striker with more power and setups, and that Zhang Weili may be in denial about the first fight. Levi expects adjustments from Zhang, such as calf kicks, but thinks Rose's toughness and experience in rematches (3-0) will carry her. He notes that Rose is undefeated at Madison Square Garden and that Zhang's cardio advantage may be overstated.
Jacob picks Rose Namajunas, saying he will never bet against her again. He believes Weili's new focus on wrestling with Henry Cejudo could backfire, as Rose has excellent jiu-jitsu. He has a moneyline bet and a submission prop on Rose. He thinks Rose has the 'it factor' and thrives in big moments.
The host leans Zhang by decision, expecting her to use takedowns to sway judges in close rounds. He thinks the fight goes 25 minutes and likes the over 4.5 rounds at -125. He notes Zhang's new camp but limited time to adjust.
Paul picks Rose as a live underdog, noting she knocked Zhang out in the first fight and is being undervalued. He questions Zhang's wrestling improvements with Cejudo and believes Rose's precision striking and submission threat are key. He sees the line as too easy to pass up.
The Guru picks Rose Namajunas, citing her youth, reach advantage, and grappling edge. He believes Zhang's mindset will be affected by her first KO loss and the crowd booing her. The Guru predicts a third-round rear-naked choke submission, noting Namajunas' ability to bounce back and her training with Trevor Wittman.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rose Namajunas | 0 | 7 of 11 | 63% | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Zhang Weili | 1 | 5 of 10 | 50% | 5 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rose Namajunas | 0 | 7 of 11 | 63% | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Zhang Weili | 1 | 5 of 10 | 50% | 5 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rose Namajunas | 7 of 11 | 63% | 1 of 4 | 0 of 1 | 6 of 6 | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Zhang Weili | 5 of 10 | 50% | 5 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rose Namajunas | 7 of 11 | 63% | 1 of 4 | 0 of 1 | 6 of 6 | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Zhang Weili | 5 of 10 | 50% | 5 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
Big Brady picks Zhang Weili to win by fifth-round knockout. He believes Zhang's power and durability will be too much for Rose, who slowed down in her last fight. He notes Rose has only one KO win and lacks power, while Zhang has a 100% takedown defense and can go five rounds. He expects Zhang to break Rose down late.
Cody leans toward Zhang, noting her pressure and power. He thinks Rose's technical striking could give her success early but doubts she can finish Zhang. He likes the over 4.5 rounds and mentions that Zhang's chin and cardio are advantages. He also notes that Rose's mental state could be a factor but ultimately sees Zhang retaining.
Daniel picks Zhang Weili, citing her evolution and ability to pull away in later rounds. He notes Rose Namajunas has a history of breaking in the third round and beyond, while Weili has shown heart and durability. He expects Weili to possibly get a finish in the third, fourth, or fifth round.
I think Zhang's power and pressure will be too much for Rose over five rounds. Rose tends to fade in later rounds, and Zhang has shown she can break opponents down. Zhang's leg kicks and combinations will slow Rose down. I like Zhang to finish late, so Zhang by KO at +255 and the round 4/5 props are appealing. The over 3.5 at -170 is also a good play as the fight should be competitive early.
Paul picks Zhang Weili, citing her durability, cast-iron mentality, and power. He acknowledges Rose's technical striking and footwork but believes Zhang's pressure and power will be decisive. He expects the fight to go the distance and likes the over 4.5 rounds. He notes Rose's mental fragility as a potential factor but thinks Zhang's chin and cardio will carry her.
The MMA Guru picks Zhang Weili by fourth-round TKO. He believes Zhang has more power, better cardio, and a higher pace in five-round fights. He thinks Rose slows down and that Zhang will chop at the legs, slow Rose's footwork, and finish her later. He also notes Zhang's grappling is good enough to avoid being exposed on the ground.
Amanda Lemos - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amanda Lemos | 0 | 42 of 73 | 57% | 51 of 84 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 1 | 2:04 |
| Gillian Robertson | 0 | 12 of 26 | 46% | 64 of 81 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 0 | 2 | 9:17 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amanda Lemos | 0 | 25 of 37 | 67% | 27 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 1:40 |
| Gillian Robertson | 0 | 5 of 15 | 33% | 9 of 20 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 1 | 1:38 | |
| 2 | Amanda Lemos | 0 | 10 of 19 | 52% | 11 of 22 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
| Gillian Robertson | 0 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 26 of 28 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:06 | |
| 3 | Amanda Lemos | 0 | 7 of 17 | 41% | 13 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Gillian Robertson | 0 | 5 of 8 | 62% | 29 of 33 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 1 | 3:33 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amanda Lemos | 42 of 73 | 57% | 31 of 61 | 8 of 8 | 3 of 4 | 27 of 57 | 2 of 2 | 13 of 14 |
| Gillian Robertson | 12 of 26 | 46% | 5 of 12 | 2 of 4 | 5 of 10 | 10 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amanda Lemos | 25 of 37 | 67% | 18 of 29 | 6 of 6 | 1 of 2 | 12 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 13 |
| Gillian Robertson | 5 of 15 | 33% | 2 of 7 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 6 | 5 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Amanda Lemos | 10 of 19 | 52% | 7 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Gillian Robertson | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Amanda Lemos | 7 of 17 | 41% | 6 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Gillian Robertson | 5 of 8 | 62% | 3 of 5 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 |
Angelo picks Gillian Robertson but expresses nervousness. He acknowledges Robertson's poor takedowns and atrocious striking, but believes her relentless pressure and submission threats will cause Amanda Lemos to freeze. He also notes the smaller cage helps Robertson. He points out that Lemos has good takedown defense, having defended nine takedowns from Tatiana Suarez, but still thinks Robertson's volume will win out.
Big Brady picks Gillian Robertson to win by third-round submission. He likes her move to strawweight (5-1 record) and improved wrestling and ground-and-pound. He notes Lemos's age (38) and 64% takedown defense, and believes Robertson can get takedowns, control top position, and eventually submit her.
Cody picks Robertson but with caution. He highlights her improved wrestling and submission game under Dean Thomas, but worries about Lemos' takedown defense and power. He notes Robertson's striking is poor and if she can't get takedowns, she's in trouble. He advises not going too heavy on her.
Connor picks Robertson, citing that Lemos will engage in grappling if she doesn't knock Robertson out, and Robertson's A-game is grappling. He compares it to Lemos's loss to Tatiana Suarez, where Lemos willingly clinched.
James picks Gillian Robertson to win inside the distance via ground and pound or submission. He highlights Robertson's relentless grappling and Lemos' tendency to regrapple and make poor decisions on the ground. He notes that Lemos has a striking advantage but expects Robertson to eventually get takedowns and finish. He suggests the fight not going to decision as a potential bet.
The host picks Lemos to win by knockout, believing her power and defensive grappling will be too much for Robertson. He expects Lemos to stuff takedowns and land big shots on the feet, eventually finishing Robertson. He notes that Robertson's lack of striking and physicality will be exposed, and that Lemos's experience against strong grapplers gives her the edge.
Paul picks Robertson confidently, citing her recent run, coaching from Dean Thomas, and improved wrestling. He believes she will get takedowns and control the fight. He notes Lemos has low volume and can be taken down, though he acknowledges the price is steep.
The Guru picks Gillian Robertson, despite her lack of striking power, because her grappling is consistent and Lemos has been out-grappled by top opponents. He thinks Robertson will get top position early and submit her in the second round, though he acknowledges Lemos could win if she stuffs a takedown and lands a big shot.
Zane leans Robertson, noting that Lemos will likely initiate grappling if she doesn't knock Robertson out immediately, which plays into Robertson's strength. He acknowledges Robertson could get nuked on the feet but thinks Lemos's tendency to wrestle will cost her.
Cody picks Robertson, citing her improved grappling and game planning. He notes Lemos's takedown defense issues and expects Robertson to take her down, control position, and win a decision. He likes the decision prop.
Connor picks Lemos, citing her athleticism and the fact that Robertson has never beaten a high-level athlete. He acknowledges Lemos's lack of development and tendency to waste time, but believes Robertson's mental block against athletic opponents will be her undoing. He notes that Lemos's recent wrestling is just a way to slow fights down, not a decisive advantage.
Lucrative James picks Gillian Robertson confidently, emphasizing her relentless grappling and ground-and-pound. He notes Amanda Lemos' takedown defense and fight IQ issues, and believes Robertson will eventually get a takedown and finish via submission or ground-and-pound. He projects Robertson as a -175 favorite.
Paul also picks Robertson, highlighting her takedown ability and improved striking. He thinks Lemos's low volume and poor takedown defense will be exploited, and expects Robertson to win a decision. He likes the decision prop.
Zane picks Robertson but is hesitant, noting that Robertson has a technical advantage and has improved, but has historically struggled against athletic opponents. He worries Robertson may give too much respect to Lemos's speed and power, leading to poor takedown attempts. He sees this as a winnable fight for Robertson if she can stay confident and execute her game plan.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tatiana Suarez | 0 | 20 of 39 | 51% | 70 of 91 | 3 of 12 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 9:34 |
| Amanda Lemos | 0 | 23 of 33 | 69% | 39 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 1 | 0:34 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tatiana Suarez | 0 | 7 of 10 | 70% | 25 of 30 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 2:58 |
| Amanda Lemos | 0 | 5 of 6 | 83% | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 | |
| 2 | Tatiana Suarez | 0 | 5 of 14 | 35% | 27 of 36 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 4:00 |
| Amanda Lemos | 0 | 5 of 5 | 100% | 16 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Tatiana Suarez | 0 | 8 of 15 | 53% | 18 of 25 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 2:36 |
| Amanda Lemos | 0 | 13 of 22 | 59% | 17 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:31 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tatiana Suarez | 20 of 39 | 51% | 1 of 11 | 10 of 17 | 9 of 11 | 9 of 24 | 11 of 15 | 0 of 0 |
| Amanda Lemos | 23 of 33 | 69% | 12 of 21 | 4 of 5 | 7 of 7 | 14 of 22 | 4 of 4 | 5 of 7 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tatiana Suarez | 7 of 10 | 70% | 0 of 0 | 1 of 4 | 6 of 6 | 6 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Amanda Lemos | 5 of 6 | 83% | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Tatiana Suarez | 5 of 14 | 35% | 1 of 7 | 3 of 5 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 6 | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Amanda Lemos | 5 of 5 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Tatiana Suarez | 8 of 15 | 53% | 0 of 4 | 6 of 8 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 9 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Amanda Lemos | 13 of 22 | 59% | 11 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 12 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 7 |
Angelo picks Tatiana, believing her wrestling will be too hard to consistently stop. He notes she is a dominant wrestler with almost five takedowns per 15 minutes, though her striking is just okay. He acknowledges Lemos has a ton of high-level experience and power, but thinks Tatiana's relentless pressure and ability to find a submission could be key. He mentions the -400 odds are tough to lay four units on someone coming off a loss, but still picks Tatiana.
Big Brady picks Suarez despite her poor last performance against Jandiroba, noting Lemos fared even worse against the same opponent. He highlights Lemos's inability to stuff takedowns and suspect submission defense. He predicts Suarez wins by second-round submission, though he has concerns about her cardio and striking defense.
The host considers this a horrible stylistic matchup for Lemos, expecting Suarez to land takedowns, work to a dominant position, and eventually secure a submission. This is a strong pick with high confidence.
The MMA Guru picks Tatiana Suarez, believing her grappling will be decisive. He notes Lemos has been outgrappled before and her aggressive style (big power swings, guillotine attempts) will leave her open to Suarez's takedowns. He predicts a second or third round ground-and-pound TKO, possibly from crucifix position.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amanda Lemos | 0 | 12 of 21 | 57% | 30 of 42 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 7:58 |
| Iasmin Lucindo | 0 | 4 of 16 | 25% | 40 of 56 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:04 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amanda Lemos | 0 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 8 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:40 |
| Iasmin Lucindo | 0 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 11 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:47 | |
| 2 | Amanda Lemos | 0 | 7 of 12 | 58% | 10 of 16 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 3:41 |
| Iasmin Lucindo | 0 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 12 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:22 | |
| 3 | Amanda Lemos | 0 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 12 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:37 |
| Iasmin Lucindo | 0 | 4 of 9 | 44% | 17 of 24 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:55 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amanda Lemos | 12 of 21 | 57% | 8 of 16 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 6 |
| Iasmin Lucindo | 4 of 16 | 25% | 2 of 12 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 13 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amanda Lemos | 3 of 5 | 60% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
| Iasmin Lucindo | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Amanda Lemos | 7 of 12 | 58% | 4 of 8 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 4 |
| Iasmin Lucindo | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Amanda Lemos | 2 of 4 | 50% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Iasmin Lucindo | 4 of 9 | 44% | 2 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
Connor picks Lemos because she is a physical force who can hit hard and is strong in the clinch. He notes that Lucindo is raw and messy, relying on speed and counters, but Lemos has excellent timing and power. Connor worries about Lemos's tendency to wrestle, which could play into Lucindo's hands, but believes Lemos's strength and durability will carry her. He sees Lucindo as too young and raw for this step up.
Lucrative James picks Lucindo, citing her youth, grappling advantage, and multiple paths to victory. He notes Lemos is a better striker but has clear grappling deficiencies, having been submitted before. He thinks Lucindo can win by submission or decision through grappling control. He mentions he cashed on Lucindo by submission before and sees value in that prop.
Zane picks Lemos, agreeing that Lucindo is too raw and that Lemos's power and physicality will be too much. He notes that Lucindo's game is unstructured and she struggles to initiate, while Lemos is a fast starter with excellent timing. Zane also points out that Lucindo's wins over bigger names may be due to catching them at the right time, and Lemos is still a formidable athlete despite her age.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virna Jandiroba | 0 | 2 of 9 | 22% | 5 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 1 | 0:51 |
| Amanda Lemos | 0 | 2 of 8 | 25% | 20 of 27 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 4 | 1 | 6:27 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Virna Jandiroba | 0 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 1 | 0:26 |
| Amanda Lemos | 0 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 8 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 3:42 | |
| 2 | Virna Jandiroba | 0 | 1 of 8 | 12% | 2 of 9 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:25 |
| Amanda Lemos | 0 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 12 of 18 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 2 | 1 | 2:45 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virna Jandiroba | 2 of 9 | 22% | 2 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Amanda Lemos | 2 of 8 | 25% | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Virna Jandiroba | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Amanda Lemos | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Virna Jandiroba | 1 of 8 | 12% | 1 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Amanda Lemos | 2 of 7 | 28% | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Virna Jandiroba because she will grind and get takedowns, neutralizing Amanda Lemos's striking. He notes that Lemos is the better mixed martial artist but cannot defend takedowns. He plans to wait for prop bets, especially the takedown line, and considers Jandiroba affordable at even money.
Cody picks Jandiroba, emphasizing her freakish strength, takedown ability, and durability. He notes Lemos has cardio issues and has been taken down repeatedly by lesser grapplers. He expects Jandiroba to bank rounds with top control as Lemos fades, though he admits the fight likely goes to decision and could be a weird judging outcome. He suggests live betting Jandiroba after Lemos wins early rounds.
Daniel Vreeland leans with Virna Jandiroba due to her world-class Jiu-Jitsu and unorthodox takedown entries, believing she can take down Amanda Lemos and possibly secure a submission early. He notes that Lemos has a significant power edge and could get a late knockout if Jandiroba gasses, but he trusts Jandiroba's early dominance. He also mentions that Lemos has shown vulnerability to submissions, referencing the standing arm triangle loss to Andrade.
Jandiroba is a -130 favorite. She has a smothering grappling style and excellent cardio, which should wear down Lemos in the later rounds. Lemos has power but questionable takedown defense and cardio. Jandiroba's chin has held up, and she can take Lemos down, take her back, and eventually find a submission in the third or fourth round. Lemos could finish early, but if she doesn't, Jandiroba will dominate.
Paul thinks Lemos is the better striker and can hang on the mat against Jandiroba, citing her durability in going five rounds with Zhang Weili and surviving takedowns from Mackenzie Dern. He acknowledges Jandiroba's grappling edge but believes Lemos can avoid submissions and win rounds with damage. He calls it close to a pick 'em fight but leans Lemos at plus money.
The MMA Guru picks Virna Jandiroba after initially considering Lemos. He recalls Lemos' grappling being exposed by Zhang Weili, who had 16 minutes of control time. He notes Jandiroba has never been finished and had close fights with Amanda Ribas and Marina Rodriguez. He trusts the favorite Jandiroba despite not wanting her to succeed.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amanda Lemos | 1 | 41 of 80 | 51% | 47 of 86 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:02 |
| Mackenzie Dern | 0 | 21 of 54 | 38% | 50 of 85 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 2 | 6:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amanda Lemos | 0 | 11 of 23 | 47% | 11 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Mackenzie Dern | 0 | 8 of 22 | 36% | 19 of 33 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:45 | |
| 2 | Amanda Lemos | 1 | 24 of 51 | 47% | 27 of 54 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:09 |
| Mackenzie Dern | 0 | 8 of 24 | 33% | 11 of 28 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 0:30 | |
| 3 | Amanda Lemos | 0 | 6 of 6 | 100% | 9 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:53 |
| Mackenzie Dern | 0 | 5 of 8 | 62% | 20 of 24 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 2:45 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amanda Lemos | 41 of 80 | 51% | 26 of 62 | 8 of 10 | 7 of 8 | 24 of 56 | 1 of 2 | 16 of 22 |
| Mackenzie Dern | 21 of 54 | 38% | 21 of 51 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 13 of 42 | 0 of 1 | 8 of 11 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amanda Lemos | 11 of 23 | 47% | 4 of 15 | 3 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 11 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Mackenzie Dern | 8 of 22 | 36% | 8 of 20 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 | |
| 2 | Amanda Lemos | 24 of 51 | 47% | 17 of 42 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 4 | 12 of 32 | 1 of 2 | 11 of 17 |
| Mackenzie Dern | 8 of 24 | 33% | 8 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 8 of 22 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 | |
| 3 | Amanda Lemos | 6 of 6 | 100% | 5 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 5 |
| Mackenzie Dern | 5 of 8 | 62% | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 6 |
Angelo picks Amanda Lemos, citing her superior striking and takedown defense. He rants about Mackenzie Dern's poor wrestling and 14% takedown accuracy, despite her elite BJJ. He notes Lemos is coming off a bad loss but believes her takedown defense is more than enough to keep the fight standing. He calls the odds fantastic.
Big Brady picks Mackenzie Dern as a dog but with very low confidence. He notes Dern's inconsistency, looking great against Angela Hill but terrible against Jessica Andrade. He thinks if Dern gets the fight to the ground, she can submit Lemos, who has been tapped before. He says he won't bet this fight and is staying far away, but as a pick he goes with Dern by submission.
Cody agrees with Paul, noting Dern's durability and BJJ threat. He mentions that Lemos could get a knockout, but Dern has shown she can take bombs. He believes Dern only needs one takedown to close the show. He picks Dern moneyline without chasing props.
Daniel Vreeland does not make a clear pick, calling it a coin flip. He notes Lemos's power and leg kick potential but is concerned about her tendency to flop to her back, as seen against Zhang. He acknowledges Dern's elite BJJ but questions her wrestling and striking. He stays away from betting on this fight.
Daniel picks Amanda Lemos hard, despite being a fan of Mackenzie Dern's grappling style. He thinks Dern won't be able to get the fight to the ground due to Lemos' strength, good boxing, and takedown defense. He also cites Dern's short notice and Lemos' reach advantage. He believes Lemos should be a -200 favorite and is all in on her.
Jeff picks Amanda Lemos, calling it a good number. He notes that Dern struggles with her wrestling and striking, and doesn't look great on the feet. He points out that Lemos just fought for the belt and has a reach advantage. He thinks Lemos should be a -200 favorite or better, so -130 is a good price.
Lemos is a dangerous power puncher who can keep Dern at bay. Dern is inconsistent and unable to complete takedowns. Expects Lemos to find a knockout in the second round.
Paul picks Dern, citing her superior Jiu-Jitsu and improved striking. He notes Lemos' low volume and 55% takedown defense, which could allow Dern to get the fight to the ground. He highlights Dern's durability and cardio, and believes she can outwork Lemos on the feet or submit her. He sees value at plus money.
The MMA Guru picks Amanda Lemos, calling her a dangerous power puncher and criticizing Mackenzie Dern's striking as nonexistent. He believes Lemos will have improved her grappling defense after being dominated by Zhang Weili. He predicts a brutal TKO stoppage in round one, stating Dern has never practiced striking for MMA.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zhang Weili | 1 | 163 of 217 | 75% | 296 of 358 | 6 of 7 | 85% | 0 | 0 | 16:07 |
| Amanda Lemos | 0 | 24 of 63 | 38% | 29 of 68 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 0 | 0:34 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zhang Weili | 0 | 44 of 55 | 80% | 74 of 90 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:33 |
| Amanda Lemos | 0 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Zhang Weili | 0 | 16 of 20 | 80% | 49 of 54 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:47 |
| Amanda Lemos | 0 | 4 of 10 | 40% | 5 of 11 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Zhang Weili | 0 | 20 of 29 | 68% | 31 of 40 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:58 |
| Amanda Lemos | 0 | 5 of 12 | 41% | 8 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:19 | |
| 4 | Zhang Weili | 0 | 28 of 45 | 62% | 28 of 45 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:44 |
| Amanda Lemos | 0 | 13 of 37 | 35% | 13 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:07 | |
| 5 | Zhang Weili | 1 | 55 of 68 | 80% | 114 of 129 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:05 |
| Amanda Lemos | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zhang Weili | 163 of 217 | 75% | 106 of 150 | 37 of 42 | 20 of 25 | 50 of 77 | 17 of 18 | 96 of 122 |
| Amanda Lemos | 24 of 63 | 38% | 19 of 57 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 23 of 61 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zhang Weili | 44 of 55 | 80% | 36 of 47 | 6 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 41 of 52 |
| Amanda Lemos | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Zhang Weili | 16 of 20 | 80% | 10 of 13 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 5 of 8 | 4 of 4 | 7 of 8 |
| Amanda Lemos | 4 of 10 | 40% | 4 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Zhang Weili | 20 of 29 | 68% | 11 of 19 | 5 of 6 | 4 of 4 | 8 of 14 | 8 of 9 | 4 of 6 |
| Amanda Lemos | 5 of 12 | 41% | 4 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Zhang Weili | 28 of 45 | 62% | 7 of 17 | 9 of 12 | 12 of 16 | 26 of 43 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Amanda Lemos | 13 of 37 | 35% | 11 of 34 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 35 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Zhang Weili | 55 of 68 | 80% | 42 of 54 | 11 of 12 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 9 | 3 of 3 | 44 of 56 |
| Amanda Lemos | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo is very confident in Zhang Weili, believing she is head and shoulders above the division. He notes her improved wrestling and jiu-jitsu, impressive volume and cardio, and power. While Amanda Lemos has knockout power and good takedown defense, he thinks Weili can win everywhere and will keep the belt. He has her in a parlay with Marlon Vera.
Big Brady picks Zhang Weili to win by third-round knockout, acknowledging Lemos is dangerous early. He notes Lemos has power and can finish early, but her cardio fades after the first round. Zhang is improving and can wrestle, and Brady expects her to weather the early storm and take over in the later rounds.
Cody views Zhang as a complete fighter with high-level striking, wrestling, and cardio, while Lemos has not faced top competition and struggled against Angela Hill. He expects Zhang to dominate and likely win by decision, though he acknowledges women's MMA can be unpredictable. He leans towards the fight going the distance.
Daniel Levi picks Zhang Weili, believing she is one of the best athletes in the UFC and has shown tremendous improvement, especially in grappling after training with Henry Cejudo. He notes that Lemos is dangerous early with heavy hands and a guillotine, but her cardio fades after round two due to weight cuts. Levi expects Zhang to take the fight to the ground and possibly finish via submission or ground and pound. He is confident but acknowledges that the early stand-up exchanges will be a sweat for backers at -330.
Lucrative James picks Amanda Lemos as a value underdog, believing she hits like a truck and has a good chance of knocking out Zhang Weili. He acknowledges Zhang has more ways to win and better cardio, but at plus 250 he sees it as an easy system play. He advises against being greedy and sticking to the moneyline.
Zhang is well-rounded with power striking and strong wrestling. Lemos fades late and has been submitted before. Zhang will mix in takedowns and wear on Lemos, eventually finding a finish in the later rounds. The inside distance prop and under 3.5/4.5 rounds are good options.
The MMA Guru picks Zhang Weili over Amanda Lemos. He notes Lemos' age (36) and past losses to Jessica Andrade and Angela Hill. He believes Zhang's athleticism, speed, power, and improved grappling will be too much. He cites Zhang's dominant grappling performances against Joanna Jędrzejczyk and Carla Esparza. He expects Zhang to win, possibly by submission or TKO.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amanda Lemos | 0 | 19 of 52 | 36% | 44 of 78 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 29 of 53 | 54% | 43 of 67 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 3:06 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amanda Lemos | 0 | 9 of 29 | 31% | 12 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 11 of 18 | 61% | 11 of 18 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Amanda Lemos | 0 | 4 of 15 | 26% | 26 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 8 of 16 | 50% | 22 of 30 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 3:06 | |
| 3 | Amanda Lemos | 0 | 6 of 8 | 75% | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 10 of 19 | 52% | 10 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amanda Lemos | 19 of 52 | 36% | 6 of 26 | 3 of 8 | 10 of 18 | 18 of 51 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 29 of 53 | 54% | 16 of 36 | 10 of 13 | 3 of 4 | 25 of 48 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amanda Lemos | 9 of 29 | 31% | 1 of 9 | 1 of 5 | 7 of 15 | 8 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 11 of 18 | 61% | 4 of 9 | 4 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 10 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Amanda Lemos | 4 of 15 | 26% | 1 of 11 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 8 of 16 | 50% | 4 of 10 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 5 of 12 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Amanda Lemos | 6 of 8 | 75% | 4 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 10 of 19 | 52% | 8 of 17 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Rodriguez, expecting her volume to be the difference. He notes she needs to avoid Lemos's power and stay technical, following the blueprint Angela Hill almost used. He acknowledges Lemos is dangerous with 7 stoppage wins and considers a no-action bet on Lemos by stoppage.
Big Brady cites Lemos's cardio concerns in a five-round fight, noting she has never gone past three rounds. He believes Rodriguez has improved takedown defense and better cardio, and will take over as the fight progresses. He predicts Rodriguez will finish a tired Lemos in the third or fourth round by knockout.
Cody picks Marina Rodriguez, citing her recent run as a viable title challenger, experience in five-round fights, and superior striking volume and power. He notes her takedown defense and ability to survive on the ground, as seen against MacKenzie Dern. He is not sold on Amanda Lemos, pointing to her age, lack of a big win, and close split decision against Angela Hill. He predicts Rodriguez wins by decision, but is not running to the book to bet at the current line.
Daniel Levi leans Marina Rodriguez, citing her durability and ability to pull away in later rounds (third, fourth, fifth) as Lemos fades. He notes Rodriguez's slow starts and vulnerability to takedowns, as she struggles to get up from bottom, but believes her volume and cardio advantage will overcome Lemos's early power. He mentions the line (-210) is a bit wide and does not have a bet on this fight.
The host believes Rodriguez's durability, cardio, and disciplined striking will overcome Lemos's early power. He notes Lemos fades after round one and telegraphs her shots, while Rodriguez has experience going five rounds. He predicts a late TKO (round 5) as Lemos fades, but also sees decision as likely.
Paul agrees with Cody's points but struggles with the -220 price, which implies nearly 69% win probability. He thinks 7-3 Rodriguez is reasonable but not a betting opportunity. He does not like the decision prop because he questions Lemos's cardio in five rounds, noting she has been finished or finished early in previous five-round fights. He is considering the under on total rounds, possibly getting plus money, and will wait for weigh-ins to see if Lemos has a bad weight cut. He picks Rodriguez for the show but will not attack the -220 line.
The MMA Guru picks Marina Rodriguez, noting Lemos's power has been absorbed by durable opponents like Michelle Waterson and Angela Hill. He believes Rodriguez's boxing, chin, and own power will surprise Lemos. He predicts a decision win (48-47 or 49-46) as Lemos may hesitate in a five-round fight, while Rodriguez's grappling defense is a concern but not an issue if it stays standing.
Expert Picks (7)
Angelo is very confident in Zhang Weili, believing she is head and shoulders above the division. He notes her improved wrestling and jiu-jitsu, impressive volume and cardio, and power. While Amanda Lemos has knockout power and good takedown defense, he thinks Weili can win everywhere and will keep the belt. He has her in a parlay with Marlon Vera.
Big Brady picks Zhang Weili to win by third-round knockout, acknowledging Lemos is dangerous early. He notes Lemos has power and can finish early, but her cardio fades after the first round. Zhang is improving and can wrestle, and Brady expects her to weather the early storm and take over in the later rounds.
Cody views Zhang as a complete fighter with high-level striking, wrestling, and cardio, while Lemos has not faced top competition and struggled against Angela Hill. He expects Zhang to dominate and likely win by decision, though he acknowledges women's MMA can be unpredictable. He leans towards the fight going the distance.
Daniel Levi picks Zhang Weili, believing she is one of the best athletes in the UFC and has shown tremendous improvement, especially in grappling after training with Henry Cejudo. He notes that Lemos is dangerous early with heavy hands and a guillotine, but her cardio fades after round two due to weight cuts. Levi expects Zhang to take the fight to the ground and possibly finish via submission or ground and pound. He is confident but acknowledges that the early stand-up exchanges will be a sweat for backers at -330.
Lucrative James picks Amanda Lemos as a value underdog, believing she hits like a truck and has a good chance of knocking out Zhang Weili. He acknowledges Zhang has more ways to win and better cardio, but at plus 250 he sees it as an easy system play. He advises against being greedy and sticking to the moneyline.
Zhang is well-rounded with power striking and strong wrestling. Lemos fades late and has been submitted before. Zhang will mix in takedowns and wear on Lemos, eventually finding a finish in the later rounds. The inside distance prop and under 3.5/4.5 rounds are good options.
The MMA Guru picks Zhang Weili over Amanda Lemos. He notes Lemos' age (36) and past losses to Jessica Andrade and Angela Hill. He believes Zhang's athleticism, speed, power, and improved grappling will be too much. He cites Zhang's dominant grappling performances against Joanna Jędrzejczyk and Carla Esparza. He expects Zhang to win, possibly by submission or TKO.
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