Career Averages - Kurt Holobaugh
Career Averages - Austin Hubbard
Kurt Holobaugh
Austin Hubbard
Kurt Holobaugh - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Holobaugh | 0 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 7 of 9 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jordan Leavitt | 0 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 of 3 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 1 | 0 | 1:27 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kurt Holobaugh | 0 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 7 of 9 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jordan Leavitt | 0 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 of 3 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 1 | 0 | 1:27 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Holobaugh | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jordan Leavitt | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kurt Holobaugh | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jordan Leavitt | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Leavitt (-192), Holobaugh (+160)
Round 1
Sticking to the lightweight division, two men who have alternated wins and losses in their last four could use the W to reverse their fortunes a bit. Holobaugh (21-9, 1 NC; 2-6 UFC) may need this one to stick around in his second stint with the promotion, while “The Monkey King” Leavitt (11-3, 4-3 UFC) could have a little wiggle room should he not prevail. With Dana White’s Contender Series right around the corner, who knows how many defeated competitors will be off the roster come Monday. Referee Mike Beltran will take charge of the cage for as long as this one lasts, and it commences with a swift glove touch. Leavitt springs from side to side as Holobaugh advances towards him, and he pushes out a front kick to set up a takedown. Within seconds, “The Monkey King” wrangles Holobaugh to the mat, where he climbs from side control to half guard to exert heavy top pressure. Holobaugh scoots his way to the fence and gets to a knee, and Leavitt wrenches him back down to the mat and takes his back in a hurry. Holobaugh tries to scramble, and Leavitt slams him down on his face. Holobaugh looks to turn the corner by going after a single on Leavitt, but
Leavitt counters with a guillotine choke and transitions it to an anaconda choke and wraps it up tight. Holobaugh relaxes, possibly too much, and this allows Leavitt to turn him to his back and grip the choke all the way. Leavitt wraps his left leg up and around Holobaugh’s arm to prevent him from defending the submission, and Holobaugh’s efforts are quickly in vain as he goes out cold.
Beltran sees this and intervenes, and Holobaugh wakes up and is upset with Beltran until he learns that he got choked out. This was quick work for the returning Leavitt, who gets his hand raised for the first time in over two years.
The Official Result
Jordan Leavitt def. Kurt Holobaugh R1 1:39 via Technical Submission (Anaconda Choke)
Angelo picks Kurt Holobaugh, calling Jordan Leavitt a one-dimensional jiu-jitsu nerd with poor striking and wrestling setups. He believes Holobaugh's forward pressure, power, and better all-around skills will prevail, though he notes Holobaugh's age (38) and subpar takedown defense as concerns. He placed a half-unit bet on Holobaugh at plus 140.
Big Brady picks Jordan Leavitt due to Kurt Holobaugh's terrible takedown defense, which he describes as a huge gaping hole. He notes that Holobaugh was easily taken down by lesser wrestlers like Hernandez and Trey Ogden. Leavitt is a good grappler with improving striking, and Brady expects him to take Holobaugh down and win a decision.
Matt picks Jordan Leavitt to win by decision. He notes that Holobaugh has poor takedown defense and is too accepting of being on his back, which plays into Leavitt's strength as a top-position grappler. Leavitt is not great on the feet but should be able to grind out a decision. Matt likes the over 2.5 rounds and Leavitt by decision prop.
The MMA Guru picks Kurt Holobaugh to finish Jordan Leavitt by TKO in the first or second round. He believes Holobaugh's striking and timing will be too much for Leavitt, and that Leavitt won't get an early submission. He notes Holobaugh's ability to get back up from takedowns and work in the clinch, and that the Apex environment benefits Holobaugh.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Hernandez | 0 | 59 of 149 | 39% | 87 of 186 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 0 | 0 | 6:39 |
| Kurt Holobaugh | 0 | 71 of 171 | 41% | 106 of 215 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:32 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexander Hernandez | 0 | 22 of 68 | 32% | 24 of 70 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
| Kurt Holobaugh | 0 | 26 of 75 | 34% | 26 of 75 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:14 | |
| 2 | Alexander Hernandez | 0 | 30 of 62 | 48% | 37 of 75 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:01 |
| Kurt Holobaugh | 0 | 38 of 78 | 48% | 48 of 91 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:18 | |
| 3 | Alexander Hernandez | 0 | 7 of 19 | 36% | 26 of 41 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 4:29 |
| Kurt Holobaugh | 0 | 7 of 18 | 38% | 32 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Hernandez | 59 of 149 | 39% | 36 of 117 | 10 of 15 | 13 of 17 | 45 of 129 | 2 of 3 | 12 of 17 |
| Kurt Holobaugh | 71 of 171 | 41% | 39 of 122 | 21 of 35 | 11 of 14 | 63 of 160 | 8 of 11 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexander Hernandez | 22 of 68 | 32% | 12 of 51 | 3 of 8 | 7 of 9 | 22 of 68 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Kurt Holobaugh | 26 of 75 | 34% | 11 of 49 | 8 of 16 | 7 of 10 | 26 of 75 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Alexander Hernandez | 30 of 62 | 48% | 17 of 47 | 7 of 7 | 6 of 8 | 21 of 51 | 2 of 3 | 7 of 8 |
| Kurt Holobaugh | 38 of 78 | 48% | 23 of 58 | 11 of 16 | 4 of 4 | 31 of 68 | 7 of 10 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Alexander Hernandez | 7 of 19 | 36% | 7 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 9 |
| Kurt Holobaugh | 7 of 18 | 38% | 5 of 15 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Hernandez (-192), Holobaugh (+160)
Round 1
Must-win fights are the name of the game at this UFC Vegas 104 card, as formerly highly touted prospect Hernandez (15-8, 7-7 UFC) has fallen on hard times as of late, winner of just two of his last six. Meanwhile, Holobaugh (21-8, 1 NC; 2-5 UFC) is on his third run in the Octagon, and this stint is more successful than others in the past as he has won a few times. Referee Kerry Hatley will take charge of the lightweights in this next match, and they start things off by bumping fists. Both men let their legs fly, smacking one another with heavy low kicks to start off. Holobaugh jabs to the body and follows with a high kick that bangs into Hernandez’ chest, and the Texan parries another advance from Holobaugh. Hernandez stands his man up with a left hand, and he slides away from any counter. Kicks on the inside and outside of Holobaugh’s leg land, and he surges into action, swarming forward with punches that catch Hernandez on the chin. They bang heads briefly, and before Hatley can say something, Hernandez stops and asks if Holobaugh is alright. They get right back to it, chasing one another around with powerful punch combinations. Holobaugh sneaks in a body kick, and Hernandez responds in kind. This happens again, just with Hernandez striking first. The lightweights take turns engaging, and they continue mirroring one another with their exchanges. One lands, the other gives him something back to think about, and the series carries on. Hernandez comes out swinging with big fists, and Holobaugh slips them and tries to do the same. When Hernandez has his gloves bang into Holobaugh’s, Holobaugh retaliates with a clubbing right hand behind the ear and floors Hernandez with another right hand. Hernandez springs right back up and sits down on a left hand that momentarily stuns his opponent. Hernandez uses his jab to set up strikes, pumping it and putting at least one or two behind it. Holobaugh is just as active, racing at Hernandez and getting met with a takedown attempt. Holobaugh considers grabbing the cage, but he instead sets up a guillotine choke and hits the ground on his back. He continues squeezing the submission, and Hernandez signals a thumbs-up before the bell sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Holobaugh
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Holobaugh
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Holobaugh
Round 2
Holobaugh has a fire lit under his belly between rounds, and he channels that by marching Hernandez down and throwing everything he can at him. Punches, knees, elbows and even a spinning wheel kick come from “The Hurt,” who is putting the hurt on Hernandez in the early going. Hernandez is tough as a two-dollar steak, and he fires back at his constantly advancing foe. Hernandez chops at the lead leg a few times, and Holobaugh has to change stances because of it. This does not slow Holobaugh, who instead plods forward throwing hands. Hernandez catches him with a right hand, and Holobaugh drills him with his own overhand right that staggers the Texan. Hernandez uses the wall behind him to gather his bearings, and he pushes off of it and re-engages. He only lands a few strikes before Holobaugh is back to imposing his volume and will on his quickly bloodied opponent. Holobaugh checks a kick and meets Hernandez with a right hand, and Hernandez sits in the pocket trying to trade back. When Holobaugh overswings with a right hook, Hernandez takes the wind out of his sails by nailing a perfect double-leg takedown. Hernandez keeps Holobaugh on his back, working with ground strikes while Holobaugh rolls for an armbar. Hernandez is having none of it, staying as heavy as he can while drumming him with several left hands. Holobaugh sells out for the armbar, and he does not have the right grip so Hernandez is in no danger. “The Great Ape” hammers Holobaugh with several big punches, mixing between smothering top control and fierce offense. The round ends with Hernandez hacking at his foe with elbows.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Holobaugh
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Holobaugh
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Holobaugh
Round 3
There is one last clap of hands for the lightweights to engage, and Hernandez immediately shoots in for a double and plants Holobaugh on his back. Hernandez moves to side control, and Holobaugh scrambles and sits up. Hernandez drags him down from behind, and he reasserts himself in half guard while isolating an arm-triangle choke. When Holobaugh scrambles, Hernandez is able to jump on top of him and claim full mount for a second before getting pulled back to half guard again. Holobaugh’s scrambles nearly result in him getting caught in an arm-triangle, and Hernandez is a 155-pound lead weight on his chest. Hernandez has his leg wrapped around Holobaugh’s, and when he moves it, Holobaugh explodes back to his feet. It is now punching time, as Holobaugh wants to slug his foe in the chops. Hernandez looks for the takedown that does not come, and Holobaugh marches him down loaded for bear. Hernandez ducks a punch and hits a crucial double, and he lands in half guard and quickly wraps up a head-and-arm choke. Holobaugh is not overly concerned, with Hernandez not able to get leverage on the other side to lock it down. Holobaugh grabs hold of a kimura—could we see a third in consecutive fights?—but it is not there. Hernandez frees his limb and opens up with torrid offense from up top, laying into “The Hurt” with everything he has left. The two go the distance, and the second round may be the one to decide the victor.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez (29-28 Holobaugh)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez (29-28 Holobaugh)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez (29-28 Holobaugh)
The Official Result
Alexander Hernandez def. Kurt Holobaugh via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Kurt Holobaugh over Alexander Hernandez. He criticizes Hernandez's inconsistency and tendency to wear damage, while Holobaugh's pressure and striking should be effective. Angelo notes that judges favor visible damage, which Holobaugh can inflict. He calls it a 'recipe for success' for Holobaugh.
Big Brady picks Kurt Holobaugh as an underdog, citing Alexander Hernandez's inconsistency, poor cardio, and tendency to crumble under adversity. He notes that Hernandez has lost to fighters like Bill Algeo, Thiago Moises, and Damon Jackson when pressured. Brady believes Holobaugh is tough, has solid cardio, and good grappling, and can have success on the feet as well. He predicts a close decision win for Holobaugh, possibly winning the second and third rounds.
Cody picks Angela Hill as a dog, citing her high volume and ability to mix in takedowns. He notes that Hill's fights are often close and she tends to fight to the level of her competition. He believes she can exploit Yasmin Lucindo's reliance on takedowns and lack of striking volume.
Connor picks Holobaugh because he enjoys rooting for him more, but acknowledges it's a lean. He notes that Holobaugh's relentless pressure and willingness to brawl could cause Hernandez to collapse mentally, as seen in his losses to Damon Jackson, Bill Algeo, and Billy Quarantillo. However, he admits Holobaugh makes terrible decisions and is less athletic.
Daniel does not make a clear pick for this fight. He discusses the matchup briefly but does not state a preference or bet.
The host believes Holobaugh will dictate the pace, which is bad for Hernandez. He expects Holobaugh to touch up Hernandez over 15 minutes and potentially find a finish after a bad takedown attempt from Hernandez in deep water, either by knockout or club and sub.
Paul also picks Angela Hill, emphasizing her experience against Brazilian opponents and her ability to mix takedowns. He notes that Lucindo struggled against Amanda Lemos when taken down and reversed. He believes Hill can bank early rounds with volume and takedowns, then survive the third.
The MMA Guru picks Alexander Hernandez, liking him at lightweight where he performs better. He notes Hernandez trains at Factory X Muay Thai now and has a win over Jim Miller. He thinks Hernandez's shot selection and leg kicks will be effective against Kurt Holobaugh, who is 38 years old. He also mentions Hernandez can use offensive takedowns while fresh. He considers Holobaugh's win over Trey Ogden but believes Hernandez is a step above.
Zane picks Hernandez for athletic reasons, noting that Hernandez is a rock-solid wrestler and hits harder than Holobaugh's recent opponents. He acknowledges that Holobaugh's brawling pressure could cause Hernandez to collapse mentally, but believes Hernandez's physical advantages and the fact that Holobaugh makes terrible decisions give him the edge.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Holobaugh | 0 | 92 of 171 | 53% | 171 of 275 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 1 | 5:21 |
| Kaynan Kruschewsky | 0 | 89 of 156 | 57% | 115 of 195 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 2:47 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kurt Holobaugh | 0 | 26 of 65 | 40% | 52 of 100 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:57 |
| Kaynan Kruschewsky | 0 | 31 of 57 | 54% | 38 of 67 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:18 | |
| 2 | Kurt Holobaugh | 0 | 48 of 79 | 60% | 66 of 101 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:28 |
| Kaynan Kruschewsky | 0 | 36 of 65 | 55% | 40 of 69 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 0:32 | |
| 3 | Kurt Holobaugh | 0 | 18 of 27 | 66% | 53 of 74 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 1:56 |
| Kaynan Kruschewsky | 0 | 22 of 34 | 64% | 37 of 59 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:57 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Holobaugh | 92 of 171 | 53% | 58 of 131 | 25 of 30 | 9 of 10 | 74 of 141 | 18 of 30 | 0 of 0 |
| Kaynan Kruschewsky | 89 of 156 | 57% | 61 of 120 | 27 of 35 | 1 of 1 | 53 of 114 | 28 of 33 | 8 of 9 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kurt Holobaugh | 26 of 65 | 40% | 15 of 49 | 7 of 11 | 4 of 5 | 19 of 50 | 7 of 15 | 0 of 0 |
| Kaynan Kruschewsky | 31 of 57 | 54% | 15 of 39 | 15 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 16 of 39 | 15 of 18 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Kurt Holobaugh | 48 of 79 | 60% | 34 of 64 | 10 of 11 | 4 of 4 | 42 of 71 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Kaynan Kruschewsky | 36 of 65 | 55% | 28 of 53 | 8 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 25 of 54 | 11 of 11 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Kurt Holobaugh | 18 of 27 | 66% | 9 of 18 | 8 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 20 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Kaynan Kruschewsky | 22 of 34 | 64% | 18 of 28 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 21 | 2 of 4 | 8 of 9 |
Angelo picks Kurt Holobaugh with very low confidence, citing his durability and composure. He notes that Kruschewsky is the better striker and more dangerous, but Holobaugh's wrestling could be key if he uses it. He explicitly says he will not bet on this fight unless a ridiculous prop appears.
Cody picks Kruschewsky, citing his youth (26 vs 38), better cardio, and ability to grapple. He criticizes Holobaugh for training at his own gym with no elite partners and expects him to fade. He notes both are BJJ black belts but thinks Kruschewsky's wrestling and durability give him the edge, though he admits it's a close fight.
Daniel Vreeland picks Kaynan Kruschewsky, citing his youth, length, and higher pace. He notes Holobaugh's declining takedown defense and lack of urgency to get back up, as seen in recent fights. Vreeland believes Kruschewsky is catching Holobaugh at the right time and will win by decision or possibly a finish.
Holobaugh is a +115 underdog. He is aggressive, powerful, and has solid durability. Kruschewsky is coming off a bad knockout loss and his chin is a question mark. Holobaugh can force a pocket exchange and land a big shot to finish. The fight is volatile, but Holobaugh's pressure and power give him the edge.
Paul agrees with Cody, siding with Kruschewsky on volume and power. He thinks the fight will come down to striking and that Kruschewsky has the edge there. He doesn't elaborate much but concurs with the pick.
The MMA Guru picks Kaynan Kruschewsky over Kurt Holobaugh, citing Holobaugh's age and recent loss to Trey Ogden. He notes Kruschewsky is a young up-and-comer with a 15-2 record, though not that young. He mentions Kruschewsky's size and reach advantage, and believes this is Kruschewsky's time more than Holobaugh's.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey Ogden | 0 | 29 of 68 | 42% | 129 of 188 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Kurt Holobaugh | 0 | 35 of 66 | 53% | 225 of 320 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 11:09 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trey Ogden | 0 | 5 of 14 | 35% | 43 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kurt Holobaugh | 0 | 1 of 11 | 9% | 68 of 94 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:12 | |
| 2 | Trey Ogden | 0 | 20 of 42 | 47% | 39 of 67 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Kurt Holobaugh | 0 | 26 of 41 | 63% | 75 of 119 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:52 | |
| 3 | Trey Ogden | 0 | 4 of 12 | 33% | 47 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kurt Holobaugh | 0 | 8 of 14 | 57% | 82 of 107 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:05 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey Ogden | 29 of 68 | 42% | 9 of 43 | 9 of 12 | 11 of 13 | 24 of 63 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 2 |
| Kurt Holobaugh | 35 of 66 | 53% | 22 of 52 | 4 of 4 | 9 of 10 | 28 of 59 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 5 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trey Ogden | 5 of 14 | 35% | 1 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Kurt Holobaugh | 1 of 11 | 9% | 1 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Trey Ogden | 20 of 42 | 47% | 5 of 25 | 7 of 8 | 8 of 9 | 16 of 38 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 |
| Kurt Holobaugh | 26 of 41 | 63% | 15 of 29 | 4 of 4 | 7 of 8 | 19 of 34 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 5 | |
| 3 | Trey Ogden | 4 of 12 | 33% | 3 of 8 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Kurt Holobaugh | 8 of 14 | 57% | 6 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Ogden (-155), Holobaugh (+130)
Round 1
Two submission specialists come together in the preliminary headliner, and both men are in desperate need of a win given their track records with the promotion thus far. Holobaugh (20-7, 1 NC; 1-4 UFC) is trying to make his third stint in the UFC the best, while Ogden (16-6, 1 NC; 1-2, 1 NC UFC) is still fuming about a premature stoppage of Nikolas Motta from November that cost him a win bonus. Barring something crazy, a win bonus will be doled out, and referee Mark Smith may be the first to know who that is. The lightweights touch gloves, and Holobaugh puts a few quick combinations together as Ogden sits down on a leg kick and swatting left hand. Ogden doubles up on a jab and eats a body shot, and Holobaugh crowds him and kicks him hard on the lead leg. Ogden feints a takedown, drawing a short flurry of strikes that allows him to shoot and take Holobaugh down to the mat. Ogden gets busy with flailing punches, and Holobaugh is just as busy if not more as he attacks with short strikes and elbows. Ogden lowers himself down in pursuit of an arm-triangle choke, and he gets smacked a few times in the back of the head. Ogden, in half guard, again presses his shoulder down for the arm-triangle, and he bops Holobaugh in the side of the head with short but irritating hammerfists. Holobaugh hooks his legs around Ogden’s to keep him from passing or advancing position, so Ogden sits there comfortably scoring short punches and shoulder strikes. Ogden postures up to land harder blows, and he drives his shoulder in Holobaugh’s chin once more to conclude the frame.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ogden
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ogden
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ogden
Round 2
Holobaugh practically sprints out of his corner to engage, and he eats a leg kick on the way in. Holobaugh tries to come out swinging again, and Ogden kicks his other leg out. Ogden chews up both legs with kicks, and he fakes his way forward and kiais to draw out a reaction. Ogden smacks him in the face with a question mark kick, and he slides away as Holobaugh chases for a counter. Holobaugh lands a body kick, and they trade one-twos. Ogden digs a kick to the ribcage, and he has a leg kick checked when he backs up against the cage. Ogden shoots for a takedown, and Holobaugh stuffs him and rings his bell with two fierce right hands. Ogden jabs once to make him retreat, and he points at Holobaugh after absorbing a low kick. Ogden tries to tie him up when Holobaugh crowds him, and he gets off a few short knees and trips Holobaugh up to dump him on the ground. Ogden threatens with an arm-triangle choke, pressing his shoulder down on the windpipe until smashing them down on Holobaugh’s face. Holobaugh turns to his side in an effort to escape, and Ogden pounds away at him with his free right hand. Ogden’s fist continues to meet face again and again, and Holobaugh can only grab Ogden’s wrist or block his face to defend from the methodical bludgeoning. Ogden fearlessly clubs away, picking up the pace as he looks for a stoppage. Holobaugh recovers well enough to stave off Smith’s itchy trigger finger, and the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ogden
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ogden
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ogden
Round 3
The gloves are touched, and Holobaugh aggressively pursues his man around the cage only to eat a number of jabs and low kicks while trying to close the distance. Ogden stays elusive and does not let Holobaugh crowd him, but he stands still and gets beaned with two right hands. As he shakes it off, he shoots in for a perfect takedown that deposits the TUF winner on his back. Holobaugh closes guard as Ogden works him from on top, and the man now known as “Shamurai” methodically climbs into half guard while continuously beating on his opponent. Ogden grinds out time as he clubs Holobaugh with hammerfists and punches, not allowing Holobaugh to breathe or get anything off of merit on his own side. With a minute to go, Ogden jumps into full mount, and he decides against trying anything reckless. The control on top carries out until the final bell, and Holobaugh gets up and walks off irritated about the fight.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ogden (30-27 Ogden)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ogden (30-27 Ogden)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ogden (30-27 Ogden)
The Official Result
Trey Ogden def. Kurt Holobaugh via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Angelo is confident in Trey Ogden, having placed a half-unit bet on him at -146. He believes Ogden can hang in the striking, get takedowns, and work from top position. He notes that Ogden was winning the striking exchanges in his last fight before the early stoppage, and his grappling should be enough to overcome Holobaugh's BJJ.
Big Brady picks Kurt Holobaugh, citing his dangerous submissions and Trey Ogden's history of being submitted (three times, twice by guillotine). He notes Holobaugh is a wild man who comes forward, while Ogden is more technical but has been submitted before. He predicts Holobaugh will submit Ogden in the second round.
Cody picks Holobaugh, citing his forward pressure, volume, and submission threat. He notes that Ogden's wrestling may not hold Holobaugh down, and Holobaugh's scrambling and aggression could sway judges. Cody sees Holobaugh as the dog with value.
Daniel Vreeland leans toward Kurt Holobaugh, agreeing with the co-host that this is a pick'em fight. He notes Ogden's recent win was against a low-level opponent and that Holobaugh has more power and output. He prefers the underdog in a close fight, citing judging uncertainty.
Ogden showed a complete performance in his last fight (no contest) with seamless striking and grappling. He should dictate the pace from the outside with straight shots and then mix in takedowns. Holobaugh is a BJJ black belt but has poor takedown defense and tends to invite grappling. Ogden's constant movement and jab should cause issues, leading to a decision win.
Paul sides with Cody, noting Holobaugh's experience and dangerous submission game. He thinks Ogden's game plan of taking down Holobaugh is risky due to Holobaugh's ability to scramble and threaten submissions. Paul picks the veteran.
The MMA Guru picks Kurt Holobaugh over Trey Ogden, praising Holobaugh's boxing and ground game. He thinks Holobaugh will drop Ogden and then submit him via guillotine choke after Ogden shoots for a takedown. He notes Holobaugh's experience and full training camp.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Holobaugh | 0 | 61 of 119 | 51% | 85 of 144 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 0 | 1:08 |
| Austin Hubbard | 0 | 44 of 107 | 41% | 61 of 125 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:23 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kurt Holobaugh | 0 | 37 of 78 | 47% | 58 of 100 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Austin Hubbard | 0 | 31 of 74 | 41% | 48 of 92 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:06 | |
| 2 | Kurt Holobaugh | 0 | 24 of 41 | 58% | 27 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 0 | 1:08 |
| Austin Hubbard | 0 | 13 of 33 | 39% | 13 of 33 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Holobaugh | 61 of 119 | 51% | 46 of 101 | 10 of 12 | 5 of 6 | 50 of 106 | 9 of 10 | 2 of 3 |
| Austin Hubbard | 44 of 107 | 41% | 25 of 86 | 17 of 19 | 2 of 2 | 31 of 87 | 9 of 12 | 4 of 8 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kurt Holobaugh | 37 of 78 | 47% | 26 of 64 | 6 of 8 | 5 of 6 | 30 of 71 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Austin Hubbard | 31 of 74 | 41% | 16 of 58 | 14 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 20 of 57 | 7 of 9 | 4 of 8 | |
| 2 | Kurt Holobaugh | 24 of 41 | 58% | 20 of 37 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 20 of 35 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 3 |
| Austin Hubbard | 13 of 33 | 39% | 9 of 28 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 30 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo likes Kurt Holobaugh as an underdog despite his 0-6 UFC record, noting that his losses were to top competition like Thiago Moises, Shane Burgos, and Humberto Bandenay. He believes Holobaugh's striking combinations and power will be too much for Austin Hubbard, though he acknowledges Hubbard's chin and takedown ability as concerns. He expects Holobaugh to win and become the Ultimate Fighter champion.
Cody likes Holobaugh's momentum from The Ultimate Fighter, his durability, and power. He thinks Hubbard is a volume pressure fighter but Holobaugh has a chip on his shoulder and nothing to lose. He picks Holobaugh as an underdog to win a decision or late finish.
Daniel Levi picks Austin Hubbard to do his typical thing, turning the fight into a sparring match and not taking risks. He notes that Hubbard is hard to finish and has survived bad spots against high-level grapplers. However, Levi is not laying the price and calls it a dog-or-pass situation. He prefers the over and Holobaugh decision props.
Lucrative James sees value on Kurt Holobaugh as an underdog, believing the fight should be a pick'em. He notes Holobaugh has more finishing threat and has faced better competition, while Austin Hubbard relies on toughness and volume but lacks major skills. However, he acknowledges Holobaugh's age (36) and potential to be out-volumed.
Hubbard has added wrinkles to his game, mixing striking with takedowns. He should be competitive on the feet and then use his wrestling to grind out Holobaugh, who struggles with defensive grappling. Hubbard's kicks and range control will set up takedowns. The line has moved to a reasonable -160/-170 range, making him a good play.
The MMA Guru picks Austin Hubbard over Kurt Holobaugh. He acknowledges Holobaugh's pocket boxing skills but believes Hubbard's straight punches, front kicks, and low kicks will keep him from standing in the pocket. Hubbard also has offensive grappling and excellent takedown defense, allowing him to dictate where the fight takes place. The Guru sees Hubbard's versatility as too much for Holobaugh.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thiago Moises | 0 | 66 of 102 | 64% | 115 of 160 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 1 | 0 | 7:52 |
| Kurt Holobaugh | 0 | 39 of 115 | 33% | 108 of 189 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 3:14 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Thiago Moises | 0 | 20 of 33 | 60% | 28 of 44 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:50 |
| Kurt Holobaugh | 0 | 11 of 37 | 29% | 42 of 71 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:07 | |
| 2 | Thiago Moises | 0 | 18 of 32 | 56% | 19 of 34 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:02 |
| Kurt Holobaugh | 0 | 24 of 66 | 36% | 46 of 90 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:18 | |
| 3 | Thiago Moises | 0 | 28 of 37 | 75% | 68 of 82 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 | 0 | 3:00 |
| Kurt Holobaugh | 0 | 4 of 12 | 33% | 20 of 28 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:49 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thiago Moises | 66 of 102 | 64% | 59 of 92 | 2 of 4 | 5 of 6 | 28 of 53 | 8 of 11 | 30 of 38 |
| Kurt Holobaugh | 39 of 115 | 33% | 16 of 82 | 21 of 30 | 2 of 3 | 24 of 93 | 14 of 21 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Thiago Moises | 20 of 33 | 60% | 17 of 29 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 10 of 18 | 2 of 3 | 8 of 12 |
| Kurt Holobaugh | 11 of 37 | 29% | 7 of 32 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 11 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Thiago Moises | 18 of 32 | 56% | 17 of 29 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 14 of 26 | 3 of 5 | 1 of 1 |
| Kurt Holobaugh | 24 of 66 | 36% | 6 of 39 | 17 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 46 | 13 of 20 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Thiago Moises | 28 of 37 | 75% | 25 of 34 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 9 | 3 of 3 | 21 of 25 |
| Kurt Holobaugh | 4 of 12 | 33% | 3 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Lightweights Holobaugh (17-6, 1 N/C) and Moises (11-3) face off in a matchup of DWTNCS alums in need of a win. Referee Marc Goddard makes his first appearance of the evening. Holobaugh grabs a single-leg in the first 15 seconds, using it to run Moises to the fence. The Brazilian defends well, however, and Holobaugh gives it up. They return to circling. Moments later, Holobaugh goes for a single, once again on the right leg, and Moises once again defends. They disengage, and Moises surprises Holobaugh by dropping for a single-leg takedown of his own, running Holobaugh to the canvas. Holobaugh grabs a front headlock on the way down, but Moises moves to the opposite side and Holobaugh wisely lets go. Moises lands in full guard, then passes to half-guard. Holobaugh regains full guard as the “Uh! Vai morrer!” chants start up. Holobaugh goes high with his legs, and Moises postures up. The round ends with Moises still in Holobaugh’s full guard.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Moises
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Moises
Cole Shelton scores the round: 10-9 Moises
Round 2
Holobaugh lands a right low kick immediately. Moises tags him with a right hook, then throws a front kick right up the middle that touches Holobaugh’s chin. Just under a minute into the round, Moises times Holobaugh for a double-leg, getting in on his hips and driving him to the canvas easily. He scoots Holobaugh over to the fence, working in the Louisianan’s guard. Holobaugh shrimps and attempts to scramble to his feet, and manages to escape. Halfway through the round, Holobaugh clinches and hold Moises against the fence. Holobaugh lands a left hook to the head and a right to the body that get Moises’ attention. With a minute left, Moises tries to drop for a takedown, Holobaugh defends, but Moises comes across the top with a hard elbow to the temple. Right before the 10-second clapper, Holobaugh lands a three-piece combo with Moises backed up against the fence. Moises responds with a pair of level elbow strikes.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Moises
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Moises
Cole Shelton scores the round: 10-9 Moises
Round 3
Moises steps inside and hits Holobaugh with a one-two, then another combo. He drops and drives Holobaugh to the ground again. He works from half-guard as Holobaugh tries to hip escape. Moises sticks to him, staying on top and giving Holobaugh nowhere to go. Against the fence, Holobaugh scrambles out but gives up his back. Moises gets his arm under the chin, but without hooks he gives the choke up. Holobaugh reverses briefly, but Moises scrambles and ends up on top again. With under 90 seconds left, it’s been Moises all over Holobaugh all round. In the final half-minute, he flurries from top position, landing some hard shots but not doing enough to get Goddard to step in. This one will go to the judges.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Moises (30-27 Moises)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Moises (30-27 Moises)
Cole Shelton scores the round: 10-9 Moises (30-27 Moises)
The Official Result
Thiago Moises def. Kurt Holobaugh via Unanimous Decision (30-26, 30-26, 30-27)
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shane Burgos | 0 | 17 of 24 | 70% | 17 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kurt Holobaugh | 1 | 21 of 51 | 41% | 26 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shane Burgos | 0 | 17 of 24 | 70% | 17 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kurt Holobaugh | 1 | 21 of 51 | 41% | 26 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shane Burgos | 17 of 24 | 70% | 13 of 19 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 17 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Kurt Holobaugh | 21 of 51 | 41% | 14 of 40 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 9 | 19 of 48 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shane Burgos | 17 of 24 | 70% | 13 of 19 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 17 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Kurt Holobaugh | 21 of 51 | 41% | 14 of 40 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 9 | 19 of 48 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raoni Barcelos | 0 | 102 of 226 | 45% | 130 of 256 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:39 |
| Kurt Holobaugh | 1 | 82 of 146 | 56% | 95 of 160 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 2:34 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raoni Barcelos | 0 | 49 of 107 | 45% | 53 of 111 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Kurt Holobaugh | 0 | 34 of 68 | 50% | 38 of 72 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:49 | |
| 2 | Raoni Barcelos | 0 | 37 of 76 | 48% | 61 of 102 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:38 |
| Kurt Holobaugh | 0 | 30 of 48 | 62% | 39 of 58 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:44 | |
| 3 | Raoni Barcelos | 0 | 16 of 43 | 37% | 16 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kurt Holobaugh | 1 | 18 of 30 | 60% | 18 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raoni Barcelos | 102 of 226 | 45% | 88 of 206 | 8 of 12 | 6 of 8 | 88 of 208 | 6 of 8 | 8 of 10 |
| Kurt Holobaugh | 82 of 146 | 56% | 76 of 138 | 5 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 67 of 129 | 8 of 9 | 7 of 8 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raoni Barcelos | 49 of 107 | 45% | 38 of 93 | 6 of 8 | 5 of 6 | 45 of 101 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 3 |
| Kurt Holobaugh | 34 of 68 | 50% | 32 of 65 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 28 of 62 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Raoni Barcelos | 37 of 76 | 48% | 34 of 71 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 27 of 64 | 4 of 5 | 6 of 7 |
| Kurt Holobaugh | 30 of 48 | 62% | 26 of 43 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 21 of 37 | 2 of 3 | 7 of 8 | |
| 3 | Raoni Barcelos | 16 of 43 | 37% | 16 of 42 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 43 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Kurt Holobaugh | 18 of 30 | 60% | 18 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Holobaugh lands an early leg kick, but it's Barcelos exploding inside to pop the American with a speedy right hand. Holobaugh grabs Barcelos in the Thai clinch to deliver a knee, then goes back to leg-kicking as the featherweights circle in the second minute. Barcelos steps inside and thumps Holobaugh with an uppercut before dipping out of range. Barcelos looks to be the speedier fighter but Holobaugh is using good head movement to slip his punches and counter effectively. Barcelos fakes a shot and comes back up to sting Holobaugh with another uppercut. Halfway through the middle of a busy round, it's Holobaugh keeping up the busier pace, while Barcelos lands sporadic but heavy punches. Barcelos completes a quick takedown as they hit the final 60 seconds; Holobaugh is back up quickly but gets blasted by a Barcelos right hand on his way out. Barcelos sprawls on a shot and puts Holobaugh in deep trouble with a tight guillotine, but the American is able to hold out for the final 10 seconds.
Sherdog Scores
Mike Fridley scores the round 10-9 Barcelos
Chris Nelson scores the round 10-9 Barcelos
Mike Sloan scores the round 10-9 Barcelos
Round 2
Barcelos opens the second round with a looping left hook, then catches an incoming Holobaugh with a straight counter. Holobaugh jabs his way inside, then lands a right to the body. The featherweights are standing toe-to-toe in the middle and throwing heavy shots, with both men landing and neither man budging. Barcelos opts to switch things up with a takedown, but the longer Holobaugh is threatening with a triangle as soon as they hit the mat. Barcelos stands to adjust and then comes back down in Holobaugh's half guard. Holobaugh works his way up against the wall, and they're back on their feet with half the round remaining. Barcelos stings Holobaugh with a punch between the eyes, then hits a lovely trip takedown in the center of the cage. Barcelos stands with 60 seconds left, allowing Holobaugh to get back on his feet. Barcelos tries a spinning kick and gets caught on the turn-around, with Holobaugh jumping on his back to sink in a hook. Barcelos' left side is flush to the fence, blocking Holobaugh's second hook, and keeping Barcelos out of trouble until the end of the round.
Sherdog Scores
Mike Fridley scores the round 10-9 Barcelos
Chris Nelson scores the round 10-9 Barcelos
Mike Sloan scores the round 10-9 Barcelos
Round 3
Barcelos comes over the top with a good right hand, gets jabbed backward by Holobaugh, then swings back with a heavy combination when the Louisianan gets caught sleeping. Holobaugh continues to jab his way forward laziily, and Barcelos makes him pay with a blistering left hand. A right hook stings the backpedaling Holobaugh, then another right connects before
an uppercut finally knocks Holobaugh senseless.
Holobaugh crashes to the canvas as referee Herb Dean rushes in to stop the fight, and Barcelos walks off with a highlight-reel knockout in his UFC debut.
The Official Result
Raoni Barcelos def. Kurt Holobaugh via KO (Punches) R3 1:29
Austin Hubbard - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rong Zhu | 0 | 101 of 197 | 51% | 104 of 201 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Austin Hubbard | 0 | 75 of 226 | 33% | 77 of 228 | 2 of 12 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 1:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rong Zhu | 0 | 20 of 46 | 43% | 21 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Austin Hubbard | 0 | 18 of 59 | 30% | 18 of 59 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:29 | |
| 2 | Rong Zhu | 0 | 29 of 62 | 46% | 31 of 64 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Austin Hubbard | 0 | 28 of 68 | 41% | 29 of 69 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:33 | |
| 3 | Rong Zhu | 0 | 52 of 89 | 58% | 52 of 90 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Austin Hubbard | 0 | 29 of 99 | 29% | 30 of 100 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rong Zhu | 101 of 197 | 51% | 65 of 154 | 21 of 28 | 15 of 15 | 98 of 189 | 3 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Austin Hubbard | 75 of 226 | 33% | 43 of 169 | 30 of 54 | 2 of 3 | 71 of 215 | 4 of 10 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rong Zhu | 20 of 46 | 43% | 9 of 32 | 1 of 4 | 10 of 10 | 19 of 43 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Austin Hubbard | 18 of 59 | 30% | 10 of 46 | 7 of 11 | 1 of 2 | 18 of 59 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Rong Zhu | 29 of 62 | 46% | 15 of 47 | 11 of 12 | 3 of 3 | 27 of 57 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Austin Hubbard | 28 of 68 | 41% | 13 of 48 | 14 of 19 | 1 of 1 | 25 of 62 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Rong Zhu | 52 of 89 | 58% | 41 of 75 | 9 of 12 | 2 of 2 | 52 of 89 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Austin Hubbard | 29 of 99 | 29% | 20 of 75 | 9 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 28 of 94 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 1 |
Angelo slightly leans Rong Zhu due to his volume and striking, but is surprised by the -300 odds, calling them berserk. He notes that Austin Hubbard is gritty and decent everywhere, and just had a close loss to a very good fighter. He thinks Hubbard could make it tricky if he marches forward and fakes takedowns.
Big Brady picks Rong Zhu to win by decision, citing his youth, rapid improvement, and striking power. He notes that Zhu has been working on takedown defense and anti-grappling, which will be key against Hubbard's wrestling. He believes Zhu will win a damage-based decision over 15 minutes, as Hubbard has never been knocked out.
The host is historically higher on Hubbard than most, but thinks this is a horrible stylistic matchup for him. He doesn't think Hubbard will be able to get to his wrestling game, allowing Rong Zhu to dictate the striking and eventually land a big knockout.
The MMA Guru picks Rong Zhu to win by 29-28 decision, but notes that he thinks Zhu is a bit of a big favorite and that there is value on Austin Hubbard. He believes Zhu is more talented and works well on the back foot, but acknowledges Hubbard could win the third round. He mentions that Zhu is young (25) and has had mixed results, including a loss to an underrated lightweight prospect.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquel Mederos | 0 | 44 of 68 | 64% | 57 of 81 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 1:33 |
| Austin Hubbard | 0 | 26 of 65 | 40% | 62 of 121 | 2 of 9 | 22% | 1 | 0 | 7:34 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marquel Mederos | 0 | 23 of 35 | 65% | 23 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Austin Hubbard | 0 | 17 of 39 | 43% | 19 of 41 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:50 | |
| 2 | Marquel Mederos | 0 | 6 of 11 | 54% | 6 of 11 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Austin Hubbard | 0 | 3 of 9 | 33% | 18 of 35 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 4:12 | |
| 3 | Marquel Mederos | 0 | 15 of 22 | 68% | 28 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 1:28 |
| Austin Hubbard | 0 | 6 of 17 | 35% | 25 of 45 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 2:32 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquel Mederos | 44 of 68 | 64% | 21 of 41 | 7 of 7 | 16 of 20 | 32 of 55 | 4 of 4 | 8 of 9 |
| Austin Hubbard | 26 of 65 | 40% | 16 of 51 | 6 of 9 | 4 of 5 | 22 of 60 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marquel Mederos | 23 of 35 | 65% | 9 of 19 | 4 of 4 | 10 of 12 | 21 of 33 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Austin Hubbard | 17 of 39 | 43% | 10 of 28 | 4 of 7 | 3 of 4 | 15 of 37 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Marquel Mederos | 6 of 11 | 54% | 3 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 6 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Austin Hubbard | 3 of 9 | 33% | 2 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Marquel Mederos | 15 of 22 | 68% | 9 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 5 | 5 of 11 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 9 |
| Austin Hubbard | 6 of 17 | 35% | 4 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
Connor picks Mederos, noting his Tony Ferguson-like style of fighting in the pocket with high activity and creativity. He thinks Mederos's pressure will overwhelm Hubbard, who is reactive and lacks power. He acknowledges that Mederos's style puts him in danger but believes he can go far before a potential fall.
Zane picks Mederos, agreeing that his aggressive pocket fighting will be too much for Hubbard. He notes that Hubbard's game is reactive and low-power, and that Mederos's willingness to eat a shot and come back is a key advantage. Zane thinks the matchup favors Mederos's mentality.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Hernandez | 0 | 63 of 191 | 32% | 65 of 193 | 0 of 12 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Austin Hubbard | 0 | 79 of 204 | 38% | 91 of 217 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:40 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexander Hernandez | 0 | 10 of 44 | 22% | 11 of 45 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Austin Hubbard | 0 | 23 of 60 | 38% | 23 of 60 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Alexander Hernandez | 0 | 22 of 66 | 33% | 22 of 66 | 0 of 7 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Austin Hubbard | 0 | 26 of 71 | 36% | 32 of 77 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:09 | |
| 3 | Alexander Hernandez | 0 | 31 of 81 | 38% | 32 of 82 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Austin Hubbard | 0 | 30 of 73 | 41% | 36 of 80 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:31 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Hernandez | 63 of 191 | 32% | 32 of 142 | 25 of 42 | 6 of 7 | 60 of 177 | 3 of 14 | 0 of 0 |
| Austin Hubbard | 79 of 204 | 38% | 41 of 144 | 22 of 38 | 16 of 22 | 78 of 203 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexander Hernandez | 10 of 44 | 22% | 2 of 27 | 7 of 15 | 1 of 2 | 10 of 42 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Austin Hubbard | 23 of 60 | 38% | 10 of 43 | 4 of 7 | 9 of 10 | 23 of 60 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Alexander Hernandez | 22 of 66 | 33% | 12 of 53 | 7 of 10 | 3 of 3 | 19 of 58 | 3 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Austin Hubbard | 26 of 71 | 36% | 13 of 48 | 8 of 16 | 5 of 7 | 26 of 71 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Alexander Hernandez | 31 of 81 | 38% | 18 of 62 | 11 of 17 | 2 of 2 | 31 of 77 | 0 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Austin Hubbard | 30 of 73 | 41% | 18 of 53 | 10 of 15 | 2 of 5 | 29 of 72 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Hernandez (-215), Hubbard (+170)
Round 1
When this lightweight affair concludes, one of these two fighters will lift their UFC records to .500 while the other will drift further in the wrong direction. Hoping this second stint courtesy of a finals appearance in TUF 31 will go swimmingly, Hubbard (16-7, 4-5 UFC) comes to blows with Texas native Hernandez (14-8, 6-7 UFC). There is no plan of a glove touch to the precede the action while referee Tyler Tomlinson watches on. Don’t worry, fight fans, ref Dave Seljestad is done for the night. He can’t hurt you anymore. Hubbard presses forward right out of the gate, pursuing Hernandez all across the cage after him. The two trade leg kicks until Hernandez lashes out with a right hand down the pipe. Hernandez tosses out a high kick that is blocked, and a right hand is not. Hubbard ducks down and directly into a right hand, and Hernandez keeps it going with a solid uppercut. Hubbard remains in front of Hernandez, but Hernandez is quicker and beats him to the punch. Hubbard jabs his foe in the chest with a kick, and Hernandez responds with a one-two. Hubbard slips back and tags “The Great Ape” with a left hook, backing Hernandez off. Hubbard chases, going for a single and then attacking up high with a kick. Even getting countered often, Hubbard remains right in front of the Texan, and he dings him with a step-in knee as Hernandez goes after a single. The knee busts Hernandez’ nose open, and a thin trickle of blood leak out of it. Hernandez pays it no mind and connects with a one-two, only for Hubbard to come back firing with a body kick. Hubbard misses a front kick by a whisker, and Hernandez’ body shot finds its home. Hubbard whiffs on a right hook and his front kick pushes off the chest, but the active Hernandez tags him with a few kicks and a left hand. Hubbard skims a right hand over the top, and Hernandez is there with two hooks that buckle Hubbard’s knees but do not send him down. “Thud” gathers his thoughts and has a thudding kick bounce off the guard. Hernandez rushes forward with a left hand and a one-two, and Hubbard barely bats an eye and instead attempts an axe kick. The horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez
Mike Fridley scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez
Round 2
Striking exchanges from both men open up the round, with both fighters landing at the end of a few successful blows. Hubbard punches his way into a takedown attempt, and Hernandez rebuffs him with ease and attacks the body. They let go with hooks at the same time, and Hernandez manages to get the better of it. Hubbard continues to maintain heavy pressure, and Hernandez beats him to the punch and drops him to his hands with a straight right hand down the pipe. Hernandez clips Hubbard with a pair of punches, and Hubbard sits down on a low kick that turns “The Great Ape” around. Hubbard drops for a single, and Hernandez manages to fight it off and hop around the cage to stay upright. Hubbard strings together a few punches into a body kick, and Hernandez swats him back with a kick to the thigh. Hernandez sneaks a high kick up, and a left hand gives Hubbard some pause, but Hubbard’s durability holds up. Going after a single, Hubbard turns the corner and takes Hernandez down to his seat from behind but cannot keep him there. Hernandez bounces back up and flashes out a few jabs. Hubbard drills him with a shovel uppercut, and he goes after a takedown, misses and blasts a leaning Hernandez in the face with a crisp knee. Hernandez appears no worse for wear from the destructive blow, and he reaches Hubbard with a left hook. Hubbard slides back and lifts up a knee, and the foot bounces into Hernandez’ cup as Hernandez does not say a word. They do not take a break, instead taking turns to throw at one another. Hernandez punches his way into a double-leg takedown, and Hubbard scoots his way to the fencing to not get taken off his feet. Hubbard breaks free and further bloodies Hernandez’ nose with a left hand. Body shots are traded from the fighters, and they crack one another with right hooks to follow. Hubbard drives forward with a body kick, and Hernandez stands firm and blasts him with a left hand at the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez
Mike Fridley scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez
Round 3
Fists fly almost immediately to start the last round, and Hernandez charges at Hubbard throwing hands and ending a string of strikes with a knee. Hubbard’s own nose is marked up from oncoming fire, but he is right in there readying himself for a firefight. When a Hubbard takedown is rebuffed once more, he is shoved back and does not eat a strike on the way out this time. Hernandez chains a body shot into two lunging punches, throwing himself off-balance while missing with the strikes. Hubbard catches him with a front kick, two clean punches and a spinning back kick, and Hernandez has to shake it off before responding. When Hernandez darts in, Hubbard has a right hand ready to pop him. Hubbard punches a few times, and Hernandez ducks and eats a knee flush. Hubbard stabs a front kick to the body, fails on a takedown and wings a right hand over the top. Hubbard’s front kick finds its home again, and they jab at the same time. Hernandez dodges a front kick to put a left hand in Hubbard’s face, and Hubbard sells out for a takedown he just cannot find. Hernandez circles around in hopes of taking Hubbard’s back during the attempt, and Hubbard stands and leans against the cage. The two split, and Hernandez connects with an elbow. Hubbard digs a knee to the breadbasket while Hernandez throws hammers, and “Thud” knocks his head around with a combo of hooks. Hubbard’s front kick lands cleanly again, and he hurts Hernandez with another short flurry. Hernandez bites down on his mouthpiece and throws back hard, and they slug it out with punches, kicks, knees and a spinning kick for good measure. The round ends as they go for broke, blood flowing out of Hernandez’ face from numerous clean connects.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hubbard (29-28 Hernandez)
Mike Fridley scores the round: 10-9 Hubbard (29-28 Hernandez)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Hubbard (29-28 Hernandez)
The Official Result
Alexander Hernandez def. Austin Hubbard via Split Decision (27-30, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Alexander Hernandez, acknowledging his talent but inconsistency. He notes Hernandez has all the tools but often makes poor decisions. He believes this matchup allows Hernandez to be himself, but he is not confident enough to bet on Hernandez as a favorite. He would only bet if Hernandez is an underdog.
Big Brady picks Austin Hubbard as a live dog, citing Hernandez's poor cardio, lack of heart, and short-notice fight at elevation. He expects Hernandez to win the first round but fade, while Hubbard's toughness and cardio will allow him to take over and win a decision, possibly with a late finish.
Cody picks Hubbard, citing Hernandez's inconsistency and cardio issues. He notes Hubbard's toughness and experience at altitude, believing Hubbard can outlast Hernandez and win a decision or late finish.
Connor picks Hernandez despite his confidence issues, noting that Hernandez has the physical tools to win. He points out that Hubbard is a talentless bully who only wins by being more physical, and Hernandez has the speed and power to overwhelm him. However, he acknowledges the altitude and short notice could be factors.
Daniel Vreeland hesitantly picks Austin Hubbard, despite calling him 'harmless Hubbard.' He dislikes Alexander Hernandez, calling him a fraud and a bust. Vreeland notes that Hernandez has lost four of his last five and that Hubbard is durable and has shown output. He is not confident but refuses to bet on Hernandez.
The host leans with the physicality and explosiveness of Alexander Hernandez, believing he will land better shots, defend Hubbard's grappling, and eventually find a knockout in the second or third round. He notes both fighters are from Colorado but gives the edge to Hernandez.
Paul picks Hubbard, agreeing with Cody about Hernandez's cardio and durability. He thinks Hubbard's pressure and altitude advantage will be key. He expects Hubbard to win by decision or submission.
The MMA Guru picks Alexander Hernandez after flipping a bottle of mayonnaise, which landed on Hernandez's side. He acknowledges Hernandez is better at lightweight and dangerous, but worries about altitude and Hernandez's tendency to gas out. He notes Hubbard trains at elevation but believes Hernandez's lightweight performances are superior. He predicts a TKO early in the fight.
Zane picks Hubbard, citing the altitude and Hernandez's short notice as key factors. He notes that Hernandez has confidence problems and may struggle with the weight cut and altitude. Hubbard is a big strong guy who can grind out a decision if he imposes his physicality.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Hubbard | 0 | 88 of 206 | 42% | 99 of 220 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 0 | 0 | 0:48 |
| Michał Figlak | 0 | 92 of 210 | 43% | 100 of 218 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:37 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Austin Hubbard | 0 | 19 of 57 | 33% | 27 of 67 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:18 |
| Michał Figlak | 0 | 26 of 59 | 44% | 27 of 60 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Austin Hubbard | 0 | 37 of 85 | 43% | 37 of 86 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Michał Figlak | 0 | 30 of 81 | 37% | 30 of 81 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:21 | |
| 3 | Austin Hubbard | 0 | 32 of 64 | 50% | 35 of 67 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 0:30 |
| Michał Figlak | 0 | 36 of 70 | 51% | 43 of 77 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:16 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Hubbard | 88 of 206 | 42% | 55 of 162 | 22 of 29 | 11 of 15 | 85 of 203 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Michał Figlak | 92 of 210 | 43% | 60 of 173 | 16 of 19 | 16 of 18 | 88 of 204 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Austin Hubbard | 19 of 57 | 33% | 11 of 45 | 3 of 5 | 5 of 7 | 18 of 56 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Michał Figlak | 26 of 59 | 44% | 15 of 47 | 4 of 5 | 7 of 7 | 26 of 59 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Austin Hubbard | 37 of 85 | 43% | 23 of 65 | 11 of 15 | 3 of 5 | 37 of 85 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Michał Figlak | 30 of 81 | 37% | 18 of 68 | 6 of 7 | 6 of 6 | 30 of 81 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Austin Hubbard | 32 of 64 | 50% | 21 of 52 | 8 of 9 | 3 of 3 | 30 of 62 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Michał Figlak | 36 of 70 | 51% | 27 of 58 | 6 of 7 | 3 of 5 | 32 of 64 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo has a half-unit bet on Michał Figlak at -125, beating the line movement. He thinks Figlak is the much better and more dangerous fighter, with powerful striking and solid wrestling used defensively. He worries about Figlak's two-year layoff, noting that strikers with long layoffs often struggle to find rhythm. However, he believes Figlak's talent outweighs the risk at the current odds, though he cautions if Figlak reaches -170 or higher the layoff becomes too risky.
Cody picks Figlak, believing he will show improvement after a poor debut. He likes Figlak's pressure style and volume, and thinks Hubbard is a warm body with no standout skills. He expects Figlak to win by decision or late finish.
Daniel calls Hubbard 'harmless Hubbard' – durable but not a finisher. He thinks Figlak has had two years to improve and has the physicality and takedown defense to outwork Hubbard. He predicts Figlak by decision, noting Hubbard's lack of threat.
Hubbard has a wrestling and grappling advantage and should be able to dictate the pace, take Figlak down, and grind him out from top position. Figlak struggled against a striker in his UFC debut and may not have the resistance to stop Hubbard's pressure. Hubbard wins on the scorecards.
Paul also picks Figlak, citing his potential and Hubbard's limited ceiling. He notes Figlak's youth and room for growth, and believes the 16-month layoff will help him. He is worried about Hubbard's wrestling but trusts Figlak's improvements.
The MMA Guru picks Michał Figlak, noting he has been high on him for a long time. He mentions Figlak's training at Renegades with Leon Edwards and Arnold Allen, and his unrelenting pressure. He criticizes Austin Hubbard for looking awful against Kurt Holobaugh and beating low-level competition. He predicts Figlak will finish Hubbard with body shots to head shots in the late second or third round.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Holobaugh | 0 | 61 of 119 | 51% | 85 of 144 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 0 | 1:08 |
| Austin Hubbard | 0 | 44 of 107 | 41% | 61 of 125 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:23 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kurt Holobaugh | 0 | 37 of 78 | 47% | 58 of 100 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Austin Hubbard | 0 | 31 of 74 | 41% | 48 of 92 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:06 | |
| 2 | Kurt Holobaugh | 0 | 24 of 41 | 58% | 27 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 0 | 1:08 |
| Austin Hubbard | 0 | 13 of 33 | 39% | 13 of 33 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Holobaugh | 61 of 119 | 51% | 46 of 101 | 10 of 12 | 5 of 6 | 50 of 106 | 9 of 10 | 2 of 3 |
| Austin Hubbard | 44 of 107 | 41% | 25 of 86 | 17 of 19 | 2 of 2 | 31 of 87 | 9 of 12 | 4 of 8 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kurt Holobaugh | 37 of 78 | 47% | 26 of 64 | 6 of 8 | 5 of 6 | 30 of 71 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Austin Hubbard | 31 of 74 | 41% | 16 of 58 | 14 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 20 of 57 | 7 of 9 | 4 of 8 | |
| 2 | Kurt Holobaugh | 24 of 41 | 58% | 20 of 37 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 20 of 35 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 3 |
| Austin Hubbard | 13 of 33 | 39% | 9 of 28 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 30 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo likes Kurt Holobaugh as an underdog despite his 0-6 UFC record, noting that his losses were to top competition like Thiago Moises, Shane Burgos, and Humberto Bandenay. He believes Holobaugh's striking combinations and power will be too much for Austin Hubbard, though he acknowledges Hubbard's chin and takedown ability as concerns. He expects Holobaugh to win and become the Ultimate Fighter champion.
Cody likes Holobaugh's momentum from The Ultimate Fighter, his durability, and power. He thinks Hubbard is a volume pressure fighter but Holobaugh has a chip on his shoulder and nothing to lose. He picks Holobaugh as an underdog to win a decision or late finish.
Daniel Levi picks Austin Hubbard to do his typical thing, turning the fight into a sparring match and not taking risks. He notes that Hubbard is hard to finish and has survived bad spots against high-level grapplers. However, Levi is not laying the price and calls it a dog-or-pass situation. He prefers the over and Holobaugh decision props.
Lucrative James sees value on Kurt Holobaugh as an underdog, believing the fight should be a pick'em. He notes Holobaugh has more finishing threat and has faced better competition, while Austin Hubbard relies on toughness and volume but lacks major skills. However, he acknowledges Holobaugh's age (36) and potential to be out-volumed.
Hubbard has added wrinkles to his game, mixing striking with takedowns. He should be competitive on the feet and then use his wrestling to grind out Holobaugh, who struggles with defensive grappling. Hubbard's kicks and range control will set up takedowns. The line has moved to a reasonable -160/-170 range, making him a good play.
The MMA Guru picks Austin Hubbard over Kurt Holobaugh. He acknowledges Holobaugh's pocket boxing skills but believes Hubbard's straight punches, front kicks, and low kicks will keep him from standing in the pocket. Hubbard also has offensive grappling and excellent takedown defense, allowing him to dictate where the fight takes place. The Guru sees Hubbard's versatility as too much for Holobaugh.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vinc Pichel | 0 | 71 of 160 | 44% | 96 of 187 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:29 |
| Austin Hubbard | 0 | 56 of 152 | 36% | 66 of 171 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 0 | 0 | 2:14 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vinc Pichel | 0 | 21 of 55 | 38% | 27 of 61 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
| Austin Hubbard | 0 | 22 of 58 | 37% | 24 of 61 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 | |
| 2 | Vinc Pichel | 0 | 27 of 63 | 42% | 34 of 70 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
| Austin Hubbard | 0 | 19 of 52 | 36% | 24 of 58 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 0:51 | |
| 3 | Vinc Pichel | 0 | 23 of 42 | 54% | 35 of 56 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:08 |
| Austin Hubbard | 0 | 15 of 42 | 35% | 18 of 52 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:13 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vinc Pichel | 71 of 160 | 44% | 28 of 108 | 16 of 23 | 27 of 29 | 59 of 145 | 10 of 12 | 2 of 3 |
| Austin Hubbard | 56 of 152 | 36% | 29 of 110 | 17 of 31 | 10 of 11 | 51 of 145 | 4 of 6 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vinc Pichel | 21 of 55 | 38% | 4 of 34 | 5 of 8 | 12 of 13 | 20 of 54 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Austin Hubbard | 22 of 58 | 37% | 9 of 38 | 8 of 15 | 5 of 5 | 22 of 58 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Vinc Pichel | 27 of 63 | 42% | 11 of 44 | 8 of 10 | 8 of 9 | 24 of 59 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Austin Hubbard | 19 of 52 | 36% | 10 of 36 | 5 of 11 | 4 of 5 | 16 of 49 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Vinc Pichel | 23 of 42 | 54% | 13 of 30 | 3 of 5 | 7 of 7 | 15 of 32 | 6 of 7 | 2 of 3 |
| Austin Hubbard | 15 of 42 | 35% | 10 of 36 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 38 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 |
Big Brady picks Vinc Pichel, citing his grappling advantage. He notes Pichel averages 3.83 takedowns per 15 minutes with 60% accuracy, and believes he will win the grappling exchanges. He is concerned about Pichel's age (38) but thinks his gas tank is fine. He predicts a decision win.
Cody picks Pichel, having already bet him. He highlights Pichel's cardio, top control, and BJJ black belt, and notes Hubbard's tendency to fade in later rounds. He believes Pichel's wrestling and pressure will be key, and mentions the value on Pichel by submission at 20-1.
Pichel is a grappler who should have success taking Hubbard down, especially by catching Hubbard's kicks. Hubbard has only fought grapplers recently and has struggled. Pichel's age (38) is a concern but he has low fight mileage. I'm picking Pichel by decision, but the moneyline at even odds is fine.
Paul picks Pichel, citing his strong top game and ability to grind out wins. He notes Pichel's slow starts but finishing strong, and Hubbard's susceptibility to takedowns. He mentions Pichel's training at Factory X and believes his cardio will hold up.
The MMA Guru picks Austin Hubbard as an underdog. He cites Hubbard's takedown defense and volume striking as keys. He notes Pichel is 38 and coming off a year layoff, while Hubbard is younger and has shown improvement. He expects Hubbard to win the later rounds via decision, possibly 29-28.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Hubbard | 0 | 67 of 115 | 58% | 126 of 181 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 2 | 6:42 |
| Dakota Bush | 0 | 41 of 104 | 39% | 54 of 122 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 1 | 1:31 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Austin Hubbard | 0 | 34 of 65 | 52% | 34 of 65 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Dakota Bush | 0 | 30 of 73 | 41% | 30 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Austin Hubbard | 0 | 13 of 22 | 59% | 30 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 3:21 |
| Dakota Bush | 0 | 7 of 15 | 46% | 16 of 26 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:33 | |
| 3 | Austin Hubbard | 0 | 20 of 28 | 71% | 62 of 74 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 2 | 3:19 |
| Dakota Bush | 0 | 4 of 16 | 25% | 8 of 23 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 1 | 0:58 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Hubbard | 67 of 115 | 58% | 32 of 76 | 10 of 12 | 25 of 27 | 49 of 91 | 2 of 3 | 16 of 21 |
| Dakota Bush | 41 of 104 | 39% | 17 of 59 | 6 of 20 | 18 of 25 | 41 of 104 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Austin Hubbard | 34 of 65 | 52% | 11 of 38 | 4 of 6 | 19 of 21 | 32 of 63 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Dakota Bush | 30 of 73 | 41% | 10 of 37 | 4 of 15 | 16 of 21 | 30 of 73 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Austin Hubbard | 13 of 22 | 59% | 7 of 16 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 8 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 7 |
| Dakota Bush | 7 of 15 | 46% | 3 of 8 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 3 | 7 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Austin Hubbard | 20 of 28 | 71% | 14 of 22 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 9 of 13 | 0 of 1 | 11 of 14 |
| Dakota Bush | 4 of 16 | 25% | 4 of 14 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 4 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Austin Hubbard to win by decision. He notes that Bush is coming in on short notice and that Hubbard has faced tough grapplers throughout his UFC career, which should prepare him for Bush's wrestling. He believes Hubbard has superior cardio and toughness, and can survive Bush's early storm. He expects Hubbard to take over in rounds 2 and 3, possibly with a late finish. He is not surprised by the close odds but thinks Hubbard should be a bigger favorite.
Cody thinks Hubbard has proven cardio and the ability to break down wrestlers. He notes that Bush is taking the fight on short notice and is not as good a wrestler as Hubbard's previous opponents. He expects Hubbard to stuff takedowns, pressure Bush, and win by decision or late finish. He is confident in Hubbard.
Daniel Levi picks Dakota Bush for the upset, citing his power and momentum. He notes that Bush is taking the fight on short notice, which is a concern, but believes Bush is the more dangerous fighter and could steamroll Hubbard early. Levi mentions that Hubbard is average and has not shown much, while Bush has fought real competition. He thinks the line should be closer and that Bush has a good chance if he is in shape.
Manpreet leans toward Bush by decision, citing his college wrestling background and Hubbard's history of struggling against grapplers. He believes Bush will take Hubbard down repeatedly and control the fight on the ground, despite coming in on short notice. He notes that Hubbard's takedown defense has been poor against wrestlers and that Bush has never been finished.
Paul agrees with Cody, noting that Hubbard has faced tough wrestlers and performed well. He thinks Bush is a step down in competition and that Hubbard's cardio and pressure will be too much. He is confident in Hubbard winning.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Solecki | 0 | 9 of 14 | 64% | 9 of 14 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Austin Hubbard | 0 | 13 of 20 | 65% | 36 of 43 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 2:37 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joe Solecki | 0 | 9 of 14 | 64% | 9 of 14 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Austin Hubbard | 0 | 13 of 20 | 65% | 36 of 43 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 2:37 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Solecki | 9 of 14 | 64% | 2 of 5 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 4 | 6 of 11 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Austin Hubbard | 13 of 20 | 65% | 8 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 9 of 16 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joe Solecki | 9 of 14 | 64% | 2 of 5 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 4 | 6 of 11 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Austin Hubbard | 13 of 20 | 65% | 8 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 9 of 16 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Joe Solecki to win by decision. He notes Hubbard has poor takedown defense (40%) and has been taken down by everyone in the UFC. Solecki has good wrestling and is slick on the ground with transitions to the back. On the feet, Hubbard has the advantage, but Brady expects Solecki to go for takedowns early and control the fight, provided his cardio holds up. He mentions Hubbard's win over Max Rohskopf is overrated because Rohskopf had only one round of gas.
Daniel Levi picks Joe Solecki to win, citing his high-level jiu-jitsu and control on the ground. He notes that Solecki's takedowns may not be elite but he can get the fight to the mat, and Hubbard has been outgrappled before. Levi acknowledges Hubbard's improved conditioning and volume striking but believes Solecki will get takedowns early, build a lead, and survive the third round. He mentions Solecki's dominant performance against Matt Wyman as evidence.
Solecki has great wrestling and jiu-jitsu, but his cardio and ability to finish are questionable. Hubbard has good leg kicks, cardio, and takedown defense, having survived wrestlers like Marco Madsen. Solecki should grind out a decision if he can maintain top control, but Hubbard's gas tank and striking could make it close. I'm pumping the brakes on Solecki until he proves more.
The MMA Guru picks Austin Hubbard, citing his counter-grappling skills and takedown defense as seen in the Mark Madsen fight. He believes Hubbard can avoid submissions and reverse positions, eventually breaking Solecki down for a third-round TKO. He also notes Hubbard's reach advantage and that he should be the favorite.
Expert Picks (6)
Angelo likes Kurt Holobaugh as an underdog despite his 0-6 UFC record, noting that his losses were to top competition like Thiago Moises, Shane Burgos, and Humberto Bandenay. He believes Holobaugh's striking combinations and power will be too much for Austin Hubbard, though he acknowledges Hubbard's chin and takedown ability as concerns. He expects Holobaugh to win and become the Ultimate Fighter champion.
Cody likes Holobaugh's momentum from The Ultimate Fighter, his durability, and power. He thinks Hubbard is a volume pressure fighter but Holobaugh has a chip on his shoulder and nothing to lose. He picks Holobaugh as an underdog to win a decision or late finish.
Daniel Levi picks Austin Hubbard to do his typical thing, turning the fight into a sparring match and not taking risks. He notes that Hubbard is hard to finish and has survived bad spots against high-level grapplers. However, Levi is not laying the price and calls it a dog-or-pass situation. He prefers the over and Holobaugh decision props.
Lucrative James sees value on Kurt Holobaugh as an underdog, believing the fight should be a pick'em. He notes Holobaugh has more finishing threat and has faced better competition, while Austin Hubbard relies on toughness and volume but lacks major skills. However, he acknowledges Holobaugh's age (36) and potential to be out-volumed.
Hubbard has added wrinkles to his game, mixing striking with takedowns. He should be competitive on the feet and then use his wrestling to grind out Holobaugh, who struggles with defensive grappling. Hubbard's kicks and range control will set up takedowns. The line has moved to a reasonable -160/-170 range, making him a good play.
The MMA Guru picks Austin Hubbard over Kurt Holobaugh. He acknowledges Holobaugh's pocket boxing skills but believes Hubbard's straight punches, front kicks, and low kicks will keep him from standing in the pocket. Hubbard also has offensive grappling and excellent takedown defense, allowing him to dictate where the fight takes place. The Guru sees Hubbard's versatility as too much for Holobaugh.
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