UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley · Aug 19, 2023 · Bantamweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley Next Fight
Age 33
Height 5' 9"
Reach 69.0"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Switch
Age 31
Height 5' 10"
Reach 72.0"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Switch
Career Averages - Mario Bautista
5.3 SLpM
48.0% Str. Acc.
3.98 SApM
54.0% Str. Def.
1.91 TD Avg
38.0% TD Acc.
55.0% TD Def.
0.8 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Da'Mon Blackshear
4.33 SLpM
45.0% Str. Acc.
4.19 SApM
52.0% Str. Def.
1.48 TD Avg
33.0% TD Acc.
71.0% TD Def.
1.5 Sub. Avg
Mario Bautista
Moneyline
DraftKings -205
KO/TKO
BetRivers +1400
Submission
BetRivers +1400
Decision
BetRivers +540
Da'Mon Blackshear
Moneyline
FanDuel +184
KO/TKO
BetRivers +1300
Submission
BetWay +700
Decision
BetMGM +650
Mario Bautista - Fight History
SCHED vs Cory Sandhagen
UFC 329 · Jul 11, 2026
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

AJ thinks Sandhagen most likely wins by decision, noting that Sandhagen decision at +190 makes sense. He acknowledges the possibility of a submission again but leans toward a decision win. He mentions the fight is expected to go over 2.5 rounds and that the distance is likely.

Sandhagen by decision +190; Sandhagen sub +1200; fight goes distance -210; over 2.5 rounds -275
"Brain just tells me most likely Sanhagen decision. I know some people might be thinking, 'Oh, but could he sub him again?' Even I know my brother's thinking that's possible. Respect. But I think Sanhagen on the cards chat at …"
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked Jun 29, 2026 (12 days before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

AJ picks Cory Sandhagen by decision, highlighting his elite long-range striking, footwork, and improved wrestling. He believes Sandhagen's precision and ability to create space will neutralize Bautista's pressure and clinch game. He expects a hard-fought three-round fight with Sandhagen doing more damage and avoiding takedowns.

"I think Cory Sanhagen beats him again. I don't think it's a first round submission like last time."
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked Jul 7, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

AJ picks Cory Sandhagen to win a decision, citing his crafty striking, dynamic weapons, and superior submission grappling. He believes Sandhagen's footwork and distance management will give Bautista trouble, and that Bautista's volume-based style won't be enough to outwork Sandhagen. AJ also notes that Sandhagen has fought better competition and has a clear edge in the grappling exchanges.

Sandhagen by decision at +175; fight goes over 2.5 rounds at -255
"A Sanhagen decision makes a lot of sense to me. It's a minus 140 money line for Sanhagen."
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked Jul 1, 2026 (10 days before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

AJ picks Sandhagen by decision in a competitive three-round affair, noting Bautista is tough but Sandhagen is too much. He wishes it were five rounds.

"Sandhagen Bautista Sandhagen decision in a competitive three-round affair. I wish it was five rounds, though."
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

AJ picks Cory Sandhagen to win a decision in a competitive fight with Mario Bautista. He mentions Sandhagen by decision at plus 180 as a prop, indicating he sees it as a likely outcome but not a finish.

Sandhagen by decision plus 180
"I got Sanhagen on the cards in a competitive fight with Mario Batista. He'll win a decision plus 180."
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Lean picked Jul 7, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

AJ leans toward Cory Sandhagen, believing his getup game is superior and that he won't be on his back long. He thinks Sandhagen will mix it up striking and take two out of three rounds. AJ also mentions the fight going over 2.5 rounds.

over 2.5 rounds
"I feel like Cory's not going to be on his back too long. I think Cory and him are going to mix it up striking. I think Cory takes two out of three."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Angelo picks Mario Bautista because he believes Bautista is the better overall wrestler with incredible scrambles, and has leveled up significantly since their first fight. He notes that Sandhagen's losses are to wrestlers and Bautista is the better wrestler. He thinks Bautista will wrestle and control the fight, and that Sandhagen's striking advantage may not be enough.

"I think Mario wins this fight. I think Mario's the better overall wrestler. I think Mario's scrambles are absolutely incredible."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Angelo thinks Mario has improved more than Cory over the years, becoming the cleaner boxer and better wrestler. He notes Cory's awkwardness could trouble Mario but believes Mario's scrambles and overall evolution give him the edge. He placed a quarter unit on Mario at +125.

Bet a quarter unit on Mario Bautista at +125.
"I'm on the Mario side. I think he's the better striker. I think he's the better wrestler."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jun 27, 2026 (14 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Big Brady picks Mario Bautista to win by split decision. He acknowledges Sandhagen's striking advantage but notes Bautista's improved grappling and Sandhagen's poor takedown defense. He thinks Bautista can mix in takedowns and control the fight. He calls it an extremely close fight and doesn't have a strong read.

"I'm going to take Mario Batista to win like a split decision."
BI
Big Brady Expert picked Jul 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)

Big Brady passes on this fight entirely. He acknowledges Bautista as a live dog but lacks confidence to bet, expecting a close decision that could go to the judges. He does not make a pick.

"Sanhagen Batista. Yeah, nothing sticking out here. I think um Batista is a live dog, but you know, I just don't really see a reason to get involved here."
BI
Big Brady Expert picked Jun 30, 2026 (11 days before fight)

Big Brady does not have a clear pick for this fight. He calls it a close, high-level bantamweight fight that he doesn't plan to bet on. He notes Sandhagen has better volume and tools on the feet, while Bautista has more power and can win minutes in the clinch and on the mat. He expects a split decision and sees value on Bautista at plus money, but is not committing.

"It's a fun fight. It's a high level fight in the bantamweight division, but it's a fight that I don't think I'm betting on."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

Cody picks Cory Sandhagen, highlighting his superior striking, scrambling ability, and takedown defense. He notes Sandhagen's success against elite wrestlers like Umar Nurmagomedov and Moraes, and believes Bautista's wrestling is not at that level. He expects Sandhagen to edge out a decision.

"I got Cory Sanhagen to win the rematch. ... I do feel like Sanhagen is just maybe going to be a little slightly the better striker."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 30, 2026 (11 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Daniel Levi picks Mario Bautista to upset Cory Sandhagen, citing Sandhagen's tendency to choke in big fights and his recent title fight loss. He notes that Bautista is hungry, coming off a career-best performance, and has a competitive history with Sandhagen. Levi expects a close fight that could go either way, but leans toward the underdog.

"I'm going to pick Mario Bautista to come out here and upset Cory Sanhagen and win the rematch."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

Jacob picks Cory Sandhagen because he believes the fight will be mostly striking and Sandhagen rarely loses striking matches. He notes that Sandhagen is more active and lands more strikes, and that Bautista's wrestling may not be enough to overcome Sandhagen's movement and volume. He thinks Sandhagen will outpoint Bautista to a decision win.

"I think Cory has proven in his career he is more active with his striking. He lands more with the judges. I I think that he's just going to be moving, moving, moving. Touch, touch, touch, touch, touch."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jul 4, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Lucrative James picks Mario Bautista via decision, citing Bautista's improved boxing, cage control, and career trajectory. He sees it as a 50/50 fight but favors Bautista as the underdog due to Sandhagen's recent chin issues and Bautista's superior training environment at MMA Lab. He notes Sandhagen's slight edge in kicks and submissions but believes Bautista's advantages in close rounds will be decisive.

Mario Bautista by decision
"I'm going to pick Mario in this one. I'm going to pick Mario. I'm not going to lie, him being the underdog is definitely pushing me to bet him because I feel like this is a 50/50 fight either way."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

The host acknowledges Sandhagen won the first meeting via first-round armbar in 2019, but expects Bautista's improvements and physical confidence to help him muzzle Sandhagen, push him against the cage, and edge out a decision.

"I expect Bautista's improvements and physical confidence as well to really help him here to muzzle Sandhagen, push him against the cage, maybe making it a little bit boring, but I think Bautista will edge out a decision here."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 4, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

The host believes Bautista's improvements in physicality, defensive grappling, and clinch work will allow him to make the fight ugly and grind out a decision win. He thinks Bautista can replicate the style he used against Aldo to neutralize Sandhagen's unorthodox striking.

Bautista by decision
"I'm going to go Bautista. I'm going to go Bautista by decision. I don't mind the slight plus money on him in this spot."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Jul 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

Paul picks Sandhagen but is torn, acknowledging both fighters have improved. He sees Sandhagen's volume as the key but respects Bautista's growth. He prefers to watch live and possibly bet in-play.

Mentions Sandhagen by sub at +800 as a fun longshot but not expected
"I'll pick Sanhagen for the purposes of this show, but more of a fight that I want to get a feel for, um, live and see how it actually plays out."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

The MMA Guru picks Mario Bautista to win. He is frustrated with Cory Sandhagen, calling him a nerd and stating he is done with him. He believes Bautista will mix in grappling and be the aggressor, which will sway judges. He notes that Sandhagen often lets fights get away from him when the opponent is the lead.

"I'm going to go Mario Batista here. ... I'm going against Corey Sandhagen, dude. I'm [ __ ] done with him."
Submission R2 4:46 · UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · Feb 07, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mario Bautista 0 15 of 27 55% 49 of 63 5 of 7 71% 1 0 5:47
Vinicius Oliveira 0 12 of 21 57% 18 of 27 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:39
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mario Bautista 0 3 of 9 33% 22 of 29 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:18
Vinicius Oliveira 0 6 of 8 75% 8 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:39
2 Mario Bautista 0 12 of 18 66% 27 of 34 4 of 5 80% 1 0 3:29
Vinicius Oliveira 0 6 of 13 46% 10 of 17 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mario Bautista 15 of 27 55% 10 of 20 5 of 6 0 of 1 6 of 12 0 of 2 9 of 13
Vinicius Oliveira 12 of 21 57% 3 of 10 3 of 5 6 of 6 9 of 18 3 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mario Bautista 3 of 9 33% 1 of 7 2 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 4 0 of 0 2 of 5
Vinicius Oliveira 6 of 8 75% 0 of 1 3 of 4 3 of 3 4 of 6 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Mario Bautista 12 of 18 66% 9 of 13 3 of 4 0 of 1 5 of 8 0 of 2 7 of 8
Vinicius Oliveira 6 of 13 46% 3 of 9 0 of 1 3 of 3 5 of 12 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Mario Bautista vs. Vinicius Oliveira
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Bautista (-185); Oliveira (+155)

Round 1
All eyes are on this bantamweight main attraction, with the UFC’s No. 9 Bautista (16-3, 10-3 UFC) putting his superior number on the line against the surging 11th-ranked Oliveira (23-3, 4-0 UFC). Whether a top-10 fighter is cemented or elevated, referee Herb Dean is on top of everything. He brings them together to the center of the cage, where the fighters calmly touch gloves.
Oliveira starts off with a front kick up the middle, only to be met with a body kick flying back. Oliveira chops at the front leg, working the calf a few times and dropping his hands to motion to someone outside the cage. Bautista swings and misses, allowing Oliveira to grab hold of him and clinch. Oh no. Here we go again. Oliveira presses heavily on the MMA Lab representative, thwarting Bautista’s initial escape attempts. Bautista manages to free himself from the grasp, but Oliveira is quick to re-engage with an attempt. They fall to the floor during a grappling exchange, and Oliveira is quicker on his feet and isolates Bautista’s right leg for a single. Bautista keeps his balance and slaps Oliveira upside the head a few times, and they spin around one another as Bautista follows through to drag the fight down and establish top control.
Oliveira hits his back and hunts for a leglock, and Bautista defends by twisting all the way around and climbing into half guard. The action slows to a crawl as Bautista smothers on top, with Oliveira locking him down with his arms hooked around his foe’s. When Bautista tries to posture up, Oliveira kicks him off. Bautista just misses with a leaping right hand, and he has an axe kick blocked. Bautista tries to move himself back into the guard, and Oliveira’s upkicks keep him honest. Bautista manages to score with a few punches to the body, but otherwise he stays out of harm until the buzzer.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Bautista
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Bautista
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Bautista

Round 2
Bautista starts the round aggressively, taking the fight to the ground early. Oliveira climbs back up thanks in part to snagging his fingers in the fence, and he is admonished for it and hurled back down to the mat by the American. A mat return soon follows when Oliveira scoots upright. Bautista cannot keep him down, and when he backs off to find an angle back in, he walks into a left hand but still scores a right. Oliveira appears lackadaisical and sloppy, his hands by his waist as he prepares to defend another takedown shot. Oliveira lunges behind an inaccurate right, and Bautista corners him against the cage and goes to take him down.
Oliveira manages to get him down instead by catching a kick, only for Bautista to reverse him and wind up in the position the ended the previous round. The Brazilian’s upkicks are less hostile than before, so Bautista is able to get into his guard and transition fairly quickly to half guard. Oliveira still slowly manages to frame off the chest, recovering back to the full guard and closing it. Bautista opens it up with a few elbows, slashing them down and pushing through to half guard, the side and eventually a crucifix. Bautista jams down a number of elbows and thumping punches, and he switches things up with a sudden, unexpected kimura.
He cranks that submission in order to brilliantly take the back of his adversary, and he slips both hooks in and wraps up a rear-naked choke in the blink of an eye. The fight went from zero to 60 in a hurry, and Oliveira is in big, big trouble. After barely a second or two, Oliveira realizes his goose is cooked and frantically taps out before he goes out.
Just like that, Bautista has notched his first stoppage since 2023 and rebounds from a loss to Umar Nurmagomedov in a huge way. The victor lauds coach John Crouch for his grappling and jitz training to be able to pull off that thrilling grappling sequence that is best shown in slow-motion. The MMA Lab rep calls for a rematch with Cory Sandhagen when on the microphone, and that is one worth watching that could easily headline a Fight Night card. If that transpires, sign us up. Also, Sherdog will be in the building at UFC Houston in two weeks, so be sure to tune into our extra live coverage throughout the week. We will be there for it, and we hope you are too.

The Official Result
Mario Bautista def. Vinicius Oliveira R2 4:46 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 1, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Angelo picks Mario Bautista, believing he is the better technical fighter with cleaner striking and better wrestling. He acknowledges Vinicius Oliveira's insane pace but thinks Bautista can match it and fight for 25 minutes. He notes that Bautista's last fight against Umar Nurmagomedov was close and impressive, and he expects Bautista to go dog for dog with Oliveira and come out on top.

"Mario Batista is going to be the pick. I think Mario can go dog for dog with Venicious and he's the better fighter."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 1, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Big Brady picks Mario Bautista, citing his superior grappling and cardio. He notes that Vinicius Oliveira has shown vulnerability on the ground, as seen in his fight against Bernardo Sopai. Bautista hasn't used his grappling recently due to tough opponents, but Brady expects him to take Oliveira down and submit him in the third round.

by third round submission
"I'm going to take Mario Batista to win this fight. I'm going to say he wins this fight by third round submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 4, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Vinicius Oliveira

Cody picks Vinicius Oliveira as an underdog, comparing him to Carlos Prates and Alex Pereira for his pressure and power. He argues Oliveira's constant forward pressure and size will overwhelm Bautista, who lacks one-shot power. Cody believes Oliveira's momentum and damage output will sway judges, especially in the Apex where damage is prioritized.

"I think I'm going to go the opposite end on Venicius Olivera... this guy's about as big as 135 pounds as you're possibly going to get."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 5, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Connor agrees with Zane, citing Bautista's technical lockdown and ability to handle pressure. He compares Oliveira to Dricus du Plessis in terms of being a 'vibes fighter' who can overwhelm opponents, but believes Bautista's scrambling and experience against elite pressure (like Aldo) give him the edge. He notes Oliveira's tendency to get tired and be hittable.

Same odds discussion as Zane.
"I still have to lean in the direction of Batista as well."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Feb 1, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Lucrative James picks Mario Bautista to win inside the distance, likely by submission in the championship rounds. He emphasizes Bautista's superior cardio and pace, especially in a five-round fight, and notes that Oliveira has been finished in all his losses. James believes Oliveira will gas out in rounds 4-5, allowing Bautista to take over and secure a finish.

under 4.5 rounds, Mario Bautista wins in round 4 or 5
"My prediction will be Mario Batista to get this one done in the championship rounds inside the distance, probably submission for the first time in Venicious Olivivera's career."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 3, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

The host picks Bautista inside the distance, likely in round 4. He believes Bautista's fight IQ, cardio, and game planning will allow him to contain Oliveira's reckless aggression and take over as Oliveira gasses. He notes Bautista can match Oliveira's violence and has a cardio edge, and expects him to find a finish in the later rounds.

inside the distance
"So, give me Maru Bautista inside the distance."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 4, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Paul picks Mario Bautista, citing concerns about Oliveira's gas tank in a five-round fight. He notes Bautista's durability and ability to control the cage, similar to his fight against Jose Aldo. Paul expects Bautista to stick to a game plan and potentially win by decision, suggesting live betting on Bautista in later rounds.

over 2.5 rounds, fight goes the distance
"My concerns for Olive Vera here, obviously he's had quite the run... I do have concerns about his gas tank in a five round fight."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2026 (fight day)
Mario Bautista

The host picks Mario Bautista over Vinicius Oliveira. He thinks Oliveira is a size bully with sloppy technique, and Bautista is equally big but technically superior. He notes Bautista's pace and pressure, and his performance against Ricky Simon was more impressive than Oliveira's. He predicts a 4-1 decision win for Bautista.

decision 4 rounds to 1
"I think he'll win a decision, five four rounds to one. A four rounds to one decision win for Mario Bautista."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 5, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Zane leans toward Bautista because of his proven ability to handle pressure fighters, as seen in his win over Jose Aldo. He notes that Oliveira is dangerous but reckless, often getting hurt in fights, and Bautista's scrambling and timing should allow him to capitalize. However, he acknowledges Oliveira's physicality and durability could make it a war.

Bautista opened at -140, currently -160; Oliveira opened at +120, currently +140. Zane thinks the line is fair and could go to -200.
"I still have to lean in the direction of Batista as well."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 321 · Oct 25, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Umar Nurmagomedov 0 32 of 54 59% 81 of 105 11 of 14 78% 0 0 10:46
Mario Bautista 1 20 of 54 37% 33 of 67 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Umar Nurmagomedov 0 5 of 6 83% 32 of 34 2 of 2 100% 0 0 4:37
Mario Bautista 0 1 of 1 100% 8 of 8 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
2 Umar Nurmagomedov 0 12 of 21 57% 29 of 39 2 of 3 66% 0 0 3:02
Mario Bautista 1 9 of 28 32% 14 of 33 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:04
3 Umar Nurmagomedov 0 15 of 27 55% 20 of 32 7 of 9 77% 0 0 3:07
Mario Bautista 0 10 of 25 40% 11 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Umar Nurmagomedov 32 of 54 59% 24 of 44 6 of 8 2 of 2 23 of 44 2 of 2 7 of 8
Mario Bautista 20 of 54 37% 6 of 37 11 of 14 3 of 3 17 of 50 2 of 3 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Umar Nurmagomedov 5 of 6 83% 5 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 5 of 6
Mario Bautista 1 of 1 100% 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Umar Nurmagomedov 12 of 21 57% 10 of 18 2 of 3 0 of 0 12 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0
Mario Bautista 9 of 28 32% 3 of 19 4 of 7 2 of 2 8 of 26 0 of 1 1 of 1
3 Umar Nurmagomedov 15 of 27 55% 9 of 20 4 of 5 2 of 2 11 of 23 2 of 2 2 of 2
Mario Bautista 10 of 25 40% 3 of 18 6 of 6 1 of 1 8 of 23 2 of 2 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Mario Bautista vs. Umar Nurmagomedov
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Nurmagomedov (-535), Bautista (+400)

Round 1
Fresh off his first career loss—a decision to champ Merab Dvalishvili—Nurmagomedov (18-1, 6-1 UFC) may not have the unbeaten shine of his brother Usman or cousin Khabib any longer, but at 29 years of age he still should have plenty left to give. He looks for a bounce-back performance against Bautista (16-2, 10-2 UFC), a tricky MMA Lab export that has already played spoiler to two recent high-profile adversaries in Jose Aldo and Patrick Mix. Can the wiry bantamweight pull off yet another upset? Referee Jason Herzog will be there for it every step of the way, including the initial fist bump.
Bautista bounces in and out, and he delivers an introductory body kick that lands with a concussive thud. Nurmagomedov snatches the limb out of the air and wrangles the MMA Lab fighter to the mat. Bautista scrambles to work his way up, and Nurmagomedov violently mat returns him. Bautista flips over to grip hold of the Russian’s left ankle, and he uses it as a possible toe hold-slash-ankle lock to crank it as hard as he can. Nurmagomedov toughs out the submission and keeps moving, preventing his foot from getting locked up or ripped off, and he establishes himself in side control. Nurmagomedov settles himself down and works on Bautista with short left hands, and Bautista’s scramble is active as can be. Nurmagomedov wraps his arm around the back of the head to keep Bautista on the floor, bowling him back over with his shoulder.
Bautista stays busy moving, bucking and shifting, and Nurmagomedov deftly stifles it all and imposes his will. The massive betting favorite shimmies over to get to the side, and he racks Bautista up with an elbow that forces an immediate change of position. Bautista bucks all the way to get to his knees and stand, and Nurmagomedov clings to him from behind with the body triangle affixed to fully control the Arizona native. Nurmagomedov works with his free right hand to soften Bautista up on the side of his melon, and he hand-fights to get his right arm free to set something up. Nurmagomedov readjusts his body lock around the waist, and Bautista turns his trunk towards the fence so he takes away the choking leverage of his adversary. Nurmagomedov happily maintains control and bops Bautista any time he can until the round wraps.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Nurmagomedov
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Nurmagomedov
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Nurmagomedov

Round 2
The fighters touch ‘em up and start kicking at one another. Bautista times a picture-perfect knee while Nurmagomedov is ducking, and he sends the Russian crashing to the canvas. Nurmagomedov blinks it out and goes after a takedown. Bautista backs him off and times a body shot, but Nurmagomedov is a man possessed and secures the takedown he was seeking before. The once-beaten fighter positions himself in half guard while wrapping his arms around the side of his opponent’s head, and Bautista willingly gives up his back so he can try to escape. Like before, Nurmagomedov snatches up back control and the body triangle. Bautista fights to one side and makes Nurmagomedov adjust to the other with his legs, so the MMA Lab product quickly twists to the other to roll to his knees. Nurmagomedov follows him, arms still wrapped around Bautista from behind, and Bautista scrambles and hits a brilliant switch to put Nurmagomedov on his seat.
Bautista stands back, lets Nurmagomedov stand up and wings a big right hand. Nurmagomedov counters with his own right hook, so Bautista walks him down and shoots for a takedown. They clack heads together when Bautista was aiming for a shoulder strike, and Nurmagomedov follows through and puts the underdog flat on his back. Nurmagomedov easily climbs over to side control, using his shoulder to press on Bautista’s face. Nurmagomedov follows a turning Bautista to secure his back, but Bautista still manages to get all the way around and back to his feet. With 35 seconds to go in the round, Nurmagomedov boots his man in the stomach. Bautista sticks out a jab and is countered, but he fires back and stuns the Russian for a moment. Nurmagomedov kicks him upside the head, and Bautista responds with a pair of body kicks.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Bautista
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Bautista
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Bautista

Round 3
The touch of gloves is a swift one, as Bautista senses the scores could be tied or he could be down on the scorecards, and he answers the bell accordingly. Racing right at the Russian with punches, he sets up a head kick that just misses. Nurmagomedov races a left hand at him, but it is his follow-up head kick that gets Bautista’s attention even though it only partially connects. Bautista delivers a body kick, and Nurmagomedov fires back with two low kicks and a couple punches up top. The bantamweights bang their heads together again when advancing, and Nurmagomedov recovers just the quicker and pursues a level change. Bautista defends until he gets taken down, and he muscles his way back up with the wall at his side. Nurmagomedov goes for the takedown from behind, allowing Bautista to turn so he can knee him in the stomach. Nurmagomedov isolates a single and puts the MMA Lab fighter on the canvas, but only for a second before Bautista is upright once more.
The midpoint of the round is reached, and Bautista scores a pair of punches and is met with a brisk takedown that sweeps him off his feet. Nurmagomedov cannot control him on the mat, so he settles for pushing the Arizonan against the wall. Bautista rolls all the way through to escape, only for Nurmagomedov to smother him on the canvas and keep him grounded. Nurmagomedov knees his man in the side and steps over to three-quarter mount, so Bautista twists himself about. Nurmagomedov chains submissions and mat returns when able, and Bautista fights valiantly and nobly but is still being controlled with the grappling game of the Russian. Nurmagomedov goes for a single, and he runs Bautista from one end of the wall to the other to drive him back down. Official takedown numbers may be high even if control time is not nearly as substantial as it was in the previous match involving the heavyweights, and Bautista is fighting with all his might to free himself. With 13 seconds to go, he does, and he proceeds to bang it out with the Russian with swinging fists and looping high kicks. Nurmagomedov walks off and raises his arms before time expires, and the two reach the final horn.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Nurmagomedov (29-28 Nurmagomedov)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Nurmagomedov (29-28 Nurmagomedov)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Nurmagomedov (29-28 Nurmagomedov)

The Official Result
Umar Nurmagomedov def. Mario Bautista via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 19, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Angelo picks Umar Nurmagomedov, arguing he won the first two rounds against Merab before breaking his hand. He believes Umar's range management, wrestling, and cardio will be too much for Mario Bautista, who has benefited from fighting older or less active opponents. Angelo is confident Umar wins a three-round fight.

Minus 420, he'll probably look it.
"Umar's going to be the pick. I don't think Mario's going to get away with that random forward or cage control pressure. ... It's three rounds, Umar wins this fight. Minus 420, he'll probably look it."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Big Brady is extremely confident in Umar Nurmagomedov, calling him the second-best bantamweight in the UFC. He believes Umar is superior in striking, wrestling, and grappling, and expects him to take down Bautista, get to his back, and submit him. Brady notes Bautista has been finished in both losses and that Umar needs a statement to earn a title shot. He predicts a second-round submission.

Umar by second round submission
"I think Umar Nurmagomedov is going to take down Bautista and finish him here on the mat. Give me Umar Nurmagomedov to win this fight by second round submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Cody picks Umar Nurmagomedov despite the steep -625 price, citing his wrestling and striking superiority. He notes that Umar took down Merab and Sandhagen multiple times, and Bautista has been taken down by lesser wrestlers. Cody believes Umar will win the first two rounds and hold on in the third, with the Abu Dhabi crowd favoring him. He also mentions that Bautista's path to victory likely requires a KO, which is unlikely.

"I do think Umar probably is a little bit better than Mario Bautista in every element."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Connor also picks Nurmagomedov, emphasizing his superior striking fundamentals and fight IQ. He notes Bautista's tendency to start slow or fade, and believes Umar's ability to control range and pace will be decisive. Connor thinks Bautista will be competitive but ultimately outworked over three rounds.

"So picking new, uh, Nirmagamad off, but that, you know, VOC should be recognizing stuff like this from what it is, uh, Umar is a huge favorite."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Oct 23, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Daniel Vreeland is hesitant due to the steep odds (-625) and Bautista's eight-fight win streak, but he believes Umar's wrestling and the Abu Dhabi advantage will secure a decision. He notes that Bautista struggles to finish higher-level opponents and that a Nurmagomedov won't lose a decision in Abu Dhabi. He calls it a 'dog or pass' situation but picks Umar.

wins by decision
"I'm going to go Umar Nurmagomedov to win this decision."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Oct 20, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Lucrative James picks Umar Nurmagomedov confidently, stating he is better in all realms of MMA: striking, wrestling, and grappling. He believes Mario Bautista is a level below and that Umar's kicks, footwork, and takedowns will be too much. He expects Umar to win by 30-27 decision or rear-naked choke submission, and notes that Umar has been in Abu Dhabi for a month to acclimatize. He also mentions improvements in Umar's cardio after the Merab loss.

30-27 decision or rear-naked choke submission
"I think it's a 3027 or a submission rear naked choke win from Uma. I think it's a confident win here."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

The host thinks Nurmagomedov has Bautista covered everywhere but expects the fight to be closer than the odds indicate. He mentions a small shot on Bautista for some people but officially picks Nurmagomedov by decision.

small shot on Bautista for some people
"I don't mind a small shot on Bautista for some people, but as an official prediction, I'm going to go Nurmagamedov by decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Paul leans Umar but is hesitant due to the price. He notes that Bautista is rock solid and capable of giving anyone a good fight, and that the line should be closer to -225. However, he acknowledges Umar's competitive performance against Merab and his wrestling advantage. Paul suggests that if Bautista wins, it would likely require a KO, and points out the plus 1800 line on Bautista KO as a potential fun bet.

"I don't love the line. I don't love the line. But I do think Umar probably is a little bit better than Mario Bautista in every element."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 21, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

The MMA Guru picks Umar Nurmagomedov by decision, expecting a 30-27 or 29-28 win. He believes Umar's flicky kicks and takedowns will give Mario Bautista problems, and that Bautista's recent wins (over Patchy Mix, Damon Blackshear) have aged poorly. He notes that Umar gave Merab Dvalishvili a tough fight and nearly beat him, while Bautista is not at that level. He predicts Umar will drag Bautista down against the cage and control the fight, though Bautista may have a good round.

mentioned in a PrizePicks parlay for more than 2.5 total rounds
"I've got Umar dragging him down against the cage, knee to the thigh, one hook in, maybe gets the back at the end of one of the rounds."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Zane picks Nurmagomedov, praising his technical striking, feints, and well-rounded game. He believes Bautista's pressure style will struggle against Umar's disciplined jab and distance management. Zane notes Bautista's scrambling ability but thinks Umar's consistency over three rounds will secure the win, though he wishes it were five rounds.

Umar by decision or submission
"In three rounds, I really do just have to pick Umar. Whether it's Batista taking time to cool down or taking time to heat up. I think either way, it spells disaster for Batista."
WIN vs Patchy Mix
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · Jun 07, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mario Bautista 0 173 of 302 57% 173 of 302 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Patchy Mix 0 122 of 304 40% 122 of 304 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mario Bautista 0 43 of 91 47% 43 of 91 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Patchy Mix 0 36 of 74 48% 36 of 74 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Mario Bautista 0 65 of 103 63% 65 of 103 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Patchy Mix 0 59 of 111 53% 59 of 111 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Mario Bautista 0 65 of 108 60% 65 of 108 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Patchy Mix 0 27 of 119 22% 27 of 119 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mario Bautista 173 of 302 57% 96 of 216 58 of 66 19 of 20 172 of 301 1 of 1 0 of 0
Patchy Mix 122 of 304 40% 92 of 265 14 of 22 16 of 17 118 of 299 4 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mario Bautista 43 of 91 47% 18 of 60 18 of 24 7 of 7 43 of 91 0 of 0 0 of 0
Patchy Mix 36 of 74 48% 22 of 58 5 of 7 9 of 9 35 of 73 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Mario Bautista 65 of 103 63% 42 of 78 20 of 21 3 of 4 64 of 102 1 of 1 0 of 0
Patchy Mix 59 of 111 53% 49 of 96 5 of 9 5 of 6 56 of 108 3 of 3 0 of 0
3 Mario Bautista 65 of 108 60% 36 of 78 20 of 21 9 of 9 65 of 108 0 of 0 0 of 0
Patchy Mix 27 of 119 22% 21 of 111 4 of 6 2 of 2 27 of 118 0 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Mario Bautista vs. Patrick “Patchy” Mix
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Mix (-180), Bautista (+150)

Round 1
Keith Peterson will officiate "Patchy" Mix's UFC debut. They touch gloves. Bautista wastes no time and starts punching to the body and throwing leg kicks. Bautista is throwing out jabs and straight rights at Mix. Nice right hand to the body by Bautista. Mix eats a 1-2 and hasn't been able to get anything off. Mix is starting to throw his jab, but is eating leg kicks from Bautista. Mix is backed up by a right hand from Bautista. Mix is starting to throw his own kicks and slowly getting more comfortable inside the Octagon. Nice right straight for Bautista that stings Mix. Bautista is repeatedly throwing 1-2 combinations and having success. Two minutes left. Mix throwing some half-hearted leg kicks that aren't landing. Bautista is having success going to the body. Nice body kick by Bautista. Mix is standing still and getting hit without showing much defense or doing anything offensively. Very poor first impression on the big stage. The round ends with Bautista stinging Mix with a combination.

Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Bautista
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Bautista
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Bautista

Round 2
Mix comes out throwing calf kicks. Nice body kick scores for Bautista. Bautista jabbing to both the body and head. Mix lands a solid right hand, but Bautista connects with a looping left in response. Bautista is much busier and has a far greater output so far. Mix is reacting better than in the first round, connecting with some right hooks and catching Bautista as he comes in. Mix's corner is calling for takedown attempts, but he hasn't tried to grapple at all. Bautista landing some nice jabs. Nice head kick lands by Mix. Bautista is now backing up, allowing Mix to throw a 1-2. This is a much better round for Mix. Bautista and Mix are going tit for tat, both hitting each other with stiff jabs. A big left hand lands for Bautista. Mix tries a jumping knee that is way off the mark. Bautista is bloodied below his right eye from the jabs of Mix. Bautista is coming on late and is pouring on punches, allowing him to cement this round in his favor.

Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Bautista
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Bautista
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Bautista

Round 3
The final round opens with Mix being more aggressive as he knows he needs a finish. Mix goes for a desperate takedown and eats punches from Bautista as a result. Bautista is repeatedly finding a home for his right hand. Mix is now cut above his right eye. Bautista is in full control, jabbing away and outclassing Mix. Bautista eats a 1-2 but answers back with a low kick of his own. Mix lands a slapping body kick. Mix is chasing after Bautista but is unable to land much. Bautista's footwork is making a huge difference as Mix can't keep up with his movement. Mix lands a nice left straight but eats a jab. Bautista throws out a head kick that misses its mark. Nice 1-2 from Bautista. More leg kicks from Bautista. Mix lands a nice left hand and a knee with 30 seconds left to go, but it winds up being far too little. Bautista throws a jumping knee as the round ends. A deflating debut for Mix.

Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Bautista (30-27 Bautista)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Bautista (30-27 Bautista)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Bautista (30-27 Bautista)

The Official Result
Mario Bautista def. Patrick Mix via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 30-27, 30-27); R3, 5:00.
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Patchy Mix

Angelo picks Patchy Mix despite Mario Bautista's seven-fight win streak. He notes Patchy is a dangerous grappler with 13 submission wins, but is one-dimensional. He thinks if Mario defends takedowns, he can win striking exchanges. However, he is influenced by Josh Thompson's confidence in Patchy and believes Mario's win over Aldo was a bad decision, so MMA karma may favor Patchy.

"I am going to pick Patchy though. ... Josh's confidence in Patchy and how good he is and how he's going to dominate here is pretty contagious."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 3, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Patchy Mix

Big Brady picks Patchy Mix, citing his elite grappling and guillotine. He believes Mix will get Bautista down and stay there, eventually finding a submission. He questions Bautista's resume, noting close fights against Blackshear and Aldo, and thinks there is a levels difference in grappling. He predicts Mix by second-round submission.

Mix by submission in round 2
"I think Patchy gets Batista down here. And once he gets him down, I think he's staying there."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Jun 5, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Patchy Mix

Connor picks Patchy Mix, believing his elite grappling and ability to take Bautista down early and control him will be decisive. He acknowledges Bautista's scrambling is excellent but thinks Mix's positional grappling and backpacking style can neutralize Bautista's pressure. Connor admits it's a tough fight and Bautista could win if Mix fades.

Odds: Mix -174, Bautista +157. Connor thinks the odds are fair.
"I think I'm going to pick Patchy Mix."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Bautista is expected to shut down Mix's grappling game and then outstrike him on the feet, showcasing that he is the better striker. He will put together more damage and win on the scorecards.

"I think that we're going to see Bautista shut down the grappling game of Mitch or Mix and then eventually outstrike him on the feet, showcasing that he is the better striker and from there he'll be able to put …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Patchy Mix

The MMA Guru picks Patchy Mix to finish Mario Bautista, citing Mix's impressive resume including wins over Horiguchi, Magomedov, and Pettis. He believes Mix is in his prime and has too much finishing potential. He predicts Mix will drop Bautista and submit him with a guillotine or anaconda choke in the first or second round. He criticizes Bautista's performance against Aldo.

Finish prediction: first or second round submission (guillotine or anaconda). Mentions a $10K bonus for a brutal finish.
"I've got Patchy Mix finishing Mario Batista and there's 10K on it."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Jun 5, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Zane picks Mario Bautista, citing his relentless pressure, excellent scrambling, and ability to win fights even after being taken down. He notes that Bautista's takedown defense is not great but he is a brilliant scrambler who wears opponents down. Zane thinks Mix's low output striking and reliance on takedowns may not be enough to keep Bautista off him for three rounds.

Odds: Mix -174, Bautista +157. Zane thinks the odds are close and reasonable.
"I got to pick Mario Batista here."
CANCEL vs Marlon Vera
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert picked Jun 1, 2025 (6 days before fight)

This fight was originally scheduled but Chito Vera dropped out. The matchup was replaced with Mario Bautista vs Patchy Mix. Angelo does not discuss the original matchup at all, so no pick is made.

"Mario was supposed to fight Cheeto Vera, but Cheeto dropped."
WIN vs José Aldo
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · Oct 05, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mario Bautista 0 51 of 117 43% 65 of 139 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
José Aldo 0 49 of 142 34% 90 of 196 0 of 10 0% 0 0 7:15
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mario Bautista 0 13 of 26 50% 20 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
José Aldo 0 20 of 53 37% 40 of 81 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:20
2 Mario Bautista 0 21 of 43 48% 25 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
José Aldo 0 19 of 53 35% 31 of 65 0 of 4 0% 0 0 2:14
3 Mario Bautista 0 17 of 48 35% 20 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
José Aldo 0 10 of 36 27% 19 of 50 0 of 4 0% 0 0 2:41
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mario Bautista 51 of 117 43% 41 of 105 6 of 8 4 of 4 46 of 111 2 of 3 3 of 3
José Aldo 49 of 142 34% 26 of 111 12 of 19 11 of 12 44 of 136 5 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mario Bautista 13 of 26 50% 8 of 21 1 of 1 4 of 4 12 of 25 1 of 1 0 of 0
José Aldo 20 of 53 37% 8 of 39 5 of 6 7 of 8 15 of 48 5 of 5 0 of 0
2 Mario Bautista 21 of 43 48% 19 of 40 2 of 3 0 of 0 18 of 40 0 of 0 3 of 3
José Aldo 19 of 53 35% 15 of 46 2 of 5 2 of 2 19 of 52 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Mario Bautista 17 of 48 35% 14 of 44 3 of 4 0 of 0 16 of 46 1 of 2 0 of 0
José Aldo 10 of 36 27% 3 of 26 5 of 8 2 of 2 10 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jose Aldo vs. Mario Bautista
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Bautista (-155), Aldo (+130)

Round 1
Once dumped unceremoniously on the prelims, cooler heads have prevailed as “The King of Rio” Aldo (32-8, 14-7 UFC) is now positioned firmly on the main card of UFC 307. While the beloved former featherweight king was previously ready to say farewell to the sport, he appears reinvigorated and in as great of condition as ever. The promotion opted to match him against fellow striker Bautista (14-2, 8-2 UFC), in what may turn out to be a battle of leg kicks. Referee Mike Beltran will preside over the bantamweights, and he watches on as they tap their fists together to say hello. Bautista is the first to land a leg kick, and he punches his way into close range. Aldo blocks a head kick and kicks the lead leg back, and he allows Bautista to buzz past him and lets go with another one of his patented low kicks. Bautista splits the guard with a right hand, and he strings a few punches together to the body before shooting in for a takedown. Aldo places his back against the cage, stifling any hopes of a takedown, and they trade knees on the inside. Bautista irritates Aldo with a number of shoulder strikes, dirty boxing his opponent and kneeing him anywhere he can find a target. Beltran asks for more activity than short strikes, and Bautista changes levels but is stuffed again. A third effort similarly falls short. Aldo looks to his corner for ideas on how to escape, and Beltran is almost ready to get involved. Bautista slashes with an elbow and scores several more knees until Aldo has had enough and he escapes. Bautista scores a knee but is met with a low kick, and he jumps forward to strike and gets Aldo’s attention. Aldo springs away, and he has a left hand brush past his face and steels himself to stop a takedown. Bautista gets back into the clinch, where he stomps on Aldo’s toes and makes it grindy. Beltran tells them to work to finish, and Aldo shoves him away. Aldo walks him down and misses with a left hook, but he snaps out two jabs and a short punch combo. Aldo blocks the counters and reaches out with a left hand, and he gets knocked back when committing to a low kick. Aldo nails Bautista with an overhand right hand, and Bautista tries to pay him back with one immediately. Bautista kicks the former champ in the ribs and dances away from a one-two to peck at Aldo. “The King of Rio” knocks Bautista back a few steps with a combination of punches, and he ducks a whizzing foot to end the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Bautista
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Bautista
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Bautista

Round 2
Fists are bumped to open the second stanza, and Aldo is ready for an advancing Bautista and lifts a knee preemptively. Bautista reaches him with a few distance strikes, and he dips down with a left and a right. A few snapping jabs shred a cut open on Bautista’s right eye, and Bautista’s head gets snapped back. Aldo tags him with a few left hands and a powerful knee, the latter landing when Bautista shot for a takedown. Aldo scores a left, and Bautista gets back going again and lines up long punches down the pipe. Aldo comes up short with another intercepting elbow, and he catches Bautista with a left and a right. Bautista walks him down and into a few more blows, and they land punches at the same time. Aldo drops his hands, and Bautista shoots for a takedown. Aldo keeps himself upright and absorbs several shoulder strikes and short blows from his opponent with his back to the cage. Beltran calls for Bautista to do more, and Bautista answers with a thumping shoulder strike and a level change. Aldo stops the second from succeeding, and he is met with a few more shoulder shots before splitting. Aldo tags Bautista with a knee, and when Bautista pays him back, Aldo gets angry. Unleashing massive power, Aldo lets his hands go, and he knocks Bautista around but cannot stun him. Bautista gets behind a jab, stabbing out his strikes until diving after a single. Aldo’s takedown defense is immaculate thus far, but he gets leaned on by the younger, more energetic fighter. Bautista lifts a leg up to try to ground him, and Aldo hops around to keep his balance before shoving Bautista away. Aldo unleashes a fury of four punches, and when going for more, Bautista surprises him with a jump knee. Aldo swings hard and misses, allowing Bautista to try and fail with one more takedown before the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Aldo
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Aldo
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Aldo

Round 3
Reaching the final frame, the bantamweights meet in the middle for a glove touch and a brief embrace. Aldo is still throwing heat, however, and he winds up with a right hand that comes up short. He pops out his jab a few times to follow, snapping Bautista’s head back when entering. Bautista jabs him back, and his high kick slides off the shoulder. Bautista scores a one-two, and Aldo peppers him with jabs and an overhand right. Bautista pokes out with jabs and a low kick, and Aldo’s strikes are far more impactful as Bautista reacts nearly every time he absorbs a blow. Bautista pressures forward and walks into a left hook, and he wings a right hand over the top to reply. Aldo digs a left to the body and is met with a charging takedown that pushes Aldo to the fence but no further. The Brazilian does not budge, fighting off a subsequent trip and otherwise being shoved against the fence. Bautista nearly disrupts Aldo’s balance and drags him to a knee, but Aldo pops back up as if his seat was on fire. Bautista doggedly pursues the takedown as Beltran calls for activity, and before long, there is a separation. Bautista immediately charges in for a double, and the crowd is not thrilled. Beltran does not wait long before telling Bautista to improve their position, and he nearly breaks them up but Aldo manages to do it for him. Aldo bursts into action, swinging with bad intentions and knocking Bautista back. Bautista tries to tie him up, and he drops low for a single to take the wind out of Aldo’s sails. Aldo lands two punches, catches Bautista mid-air with another and then knees his man in the gut as the final horn blares. It could go either way.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Aldo (29-28 Aldo)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Bautista (29-28 Bautista)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Aldo (29-28 Aldo)

The Official Result
Mario Bautista def. Jose Aldo via Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 29, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Angelo picks Mario Bautista, citing his forward pressure, high volume striking, and youth. He believes José Aldo's age will eventually catch up to him, and that Bautista's pace and takedown threat will be too much. He notes Aldo looked good in his last fight but attributes that to Jonathan Martinez being gun-shy. He admits he is rooting for Aldo but thinks Bautista wins.

"I'm going to be picking Mario Batista here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
José Aldo

Big Brady picks José Aldo as an underdog, citing Aldo's elite takedown defense (91%) and superior striking. He believes Bautista will struggle to take Aldo down, and on the feet, Aldo should win exchanges. He notes Aldo looked great in his return against Jonathan Martinez and could even knock out Bautista, who has been finished before.

second round knockout
"I like uh I like Alo here to win this fight I think he could even knock out Mario Batista you know Batista he's hitable we've seen him hurt we've seen him knocked out Trevon Jones knocked him out I …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
José Aldo

Cody picks Aldo, arguing that Aldo's recent win over Jonathan Martinez proved he still has it. He criticizes Bautista's resume, noting that his six-fight winning streak includes mostly low-level opponents. He believes Aldo's takedown defense and striking will be too much.

"I think I'm gonna go Jose Aldo"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Connor also picks Bautista, echoing Zane's reasoning. He highlights Bautista's ability to build momentum and his fearlessness in pressing offense, which could break Aldo's aura of invincibility. He notes that Aldo's later career losses came against fighters who pressured him relentlessly, and Bautista has the right mix of skills to do the same.

Same odds commentary.
"I think batista looks like a much tougher opponent. Yeah, absolutely does."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
José Aldo

Daniel Vreeland picks José Aldo as a dog. He notes that Aldo still looks great and has only lost to the very top of the division. He points out that Mario Bautista's wins are against lower-level competition like Bonito Lopez and Ricky Simone, who is one-dimensional. Vreeland emphasizes that Aldo's takedown defense is elite, having stuffed 16 straight takedowns from Merab Dvalishvili, and that Bautista won't be able to wrestle him. He compares Bautista to Jonathan Martinez, whom Aldo easily beat, and believes Aldo is still above that level.

"I'm going Aldo too uh I can't I couldn't believe it uh but going Jose Aldo too I think for me you know like you said I think what you look at with Mario Batista's record like yeah he's looked …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
José Aldo

Daniel Vreeland picks José Aldo, citing his legendary takedown defense and counter-striking. He notes that Aldo's boxing has improved and that Bautista's high volume will leave openings for Aldo's counters. Vreeland also mentions Aldo's performance against Jonathan Martinez and his ability to stuff all 16 takedowns from Merab Dvalishvili. He expects Aldo to win the first two rounds and coast to a decision.

"I think Jose is gonna outclass this guy the first two rounds and Coast the last round win a 2928 unanimous decision"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
José Aldo

Jeff Fox picks José Aldo. He notes that Aldo is still winning and has only lost to the very top of the division. He believes Aldo's defensive skills, especially his takedown defense, have not declined. Fox thinks Aldo has another win in him and likes the dog money at +120.

"I got to go first I can't fade it Jose Aldo surprisingly he just still looks damn good"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Mario Bautista

The host believes Bautista is a more dangerous opponent than Aldo's last fight. He thinks Bautista will land strikes from distance and crack Aldo a few times, preventing Aldo from getting into his groove. He notes that Bautista's opponents often grapple with him, but Aldo doesn't do that, and Bautista is closer to his prime while Aldo at 38 may be a step behind. He suggests Bautista could even get a finish.

"I think Bautista will do a good enough job in terms of Landing his strikes from distance and I think he'll be able to crack Aldo a few times which will keep Aldo from getting to his game"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Paul leans toward Bautista, citing his improvements and volume striking. He thinks Bautista can outwork Aldo over three rounds, though he acknowledges the risk of getting starstruck. He sees value at minus 130.

"Bautista definitely has my interests and potentially my money"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
José Aldo

The MMA Guru picks José Aldo over Mario Bautista, citing Aldo's superior striking, power, and body work. He questions Bautista's level of competition, noting close fights with Deonte Blackshear and Ricky Simon. He believes Aldo's physicality and takedown defense will be too much, and that Aldo's body shots will be effective at altitude. He predicts Aldo wins a decision, surviving a tricky third round.

"I'm going to go with Jose Aldo over Mario Batista never doubt Aldo against the B"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Zane picks Bautista, though not confidently. He believes Bautista's relentless pressure, refusal to accept defeated positions, and ability to mix in takedowns could overwhelm the 38-year-old Aldo. He notes that Aldo has been taken down by lesser wrestlers and that Bautista's grappling threat could open up striking. However, he acknowledges Aldo's power and counter-striking make it a risky pick.

Aldo opened at +149, now +124. Bautista opened at -168, now -139.
"I think i'm gonna pick batista though. I'm picking him too. I don't feel confident at all. I don't feel good about it. I don't feel confident in it. No, like I think he's gonna lose."
WIN vs Ricky Simón
DEC R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2 · Jan 13, 2024
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Ricky Simon vs. Mario Bautista
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Simon (-175), Bautista (+145)

Round 1
A spot in the top 15 at bantamweight is on the line for this “featured fight of the night.” Simon (20-4, 8-3 UFC) lost in his last fight in a main event, and Bautista (13-2, 7-2 UFC) has rattled off five straight in the Octagon. The two speedy fighters will be overseen by referee Mark Smith, and they race towards one another without a glove touch in sight. As Bautista starts off with leg kicks, Simon opts to jump over one. Bautista continues spamming kicks, and one glances off the cup. Simon shakes it and signals to Smith he does not need a break. Bautista changes his trajectory and aims a kick at the head, and Simon cannot find his distance with Bautista kicking again and again. Simon times one advancing movement of his foe with a big left hand, and he clips Bautista with a right hand when Bautista does not get away in time. Bautista lances the guard with two punches, and he connects with a flying knee as well but he is the one that hits the ground. Bautista jumps back to his feet before Simon can climb on top of him, and he leaps at Simon with a knee. Simon catches him in the air and tackles him to the canvas, where he lands on top of his man and quickly gets to half guard. Simon skitters over to the side, and he threatens with a guillotine choke before Bautista scrambles back to his feet. Bautista escapes the choke and scores two big punches on the way up and out. Simon chambers and fires a pair of heavier low kicks, and he walks through a step-in knee so he can take Bautista down. Bautista fights off one attempt, and he gets away and prepares a knee when Simon comes at him. Simon takes it like a champ and keeps plowing forward, and he succeeds in pushing Bautista against the wall. Bautista fights his way out of the tie-up and chases Simon down, working on the lead leg of his opponent and sticking out a few jabs. Bautista unloads with a right hand after a jab, and he falls forward to his face. Simon lets him up so he can slug it out with him, and Bautista responds with two jabs and a body shot. Bautista aims a kick to the ribs, and he follows it with two more. Bautista rushes after his foe with a jump knee, and he gets cracked with a left hand and falls over. Bautista scrambles wildly and fights off a back take to get back upright, and Simon gives chase until the wild round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Bautista
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Bautista
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Bautista

Round 2
The round kicks off with several kicks for Bautista, who spins his way into a wheel kick that misses by a matter of inches. Both fighters swing with major power and do not find their home, and Simon opens up with a combination only to get countered and driven back. Simon kicks low and gets checked, and Bautista strings together five punches and keeps the pace up. Simon chambers but does not release his strikes until unloading with a left to the body, and Bautista’s volume triples him up. Bautista swings so hard with a right and a left hook that he almost goes down, and he catches himself in the process. Simon scores a right and shoots in for a double, pushing Bautista back to the wire but halted from lifting Bautista up in the air. Bautista escapes the position and chains a number of punches together before Simon can get him back. Bautista connects with a crisp elbow, and Simon gets stunned and winds up to throw back but learns that Bautista is out of the way. Bautista rips a few shots to the body that land with thumps, and Simon looks for a straight right hand. Bautista retaliates with his own straight right, and Simon sneaks forward and catches him with a knee. Simon pushes out a right hand, and Bautista belts him in the body with a powerful liver kick. Bautista drives a knee to the solar plexus and takes a left hand that bloodies his nose, and he looks for an uppercut. Simon jabs and digs a right to the body, and Bautista counters him with multiple powerful blows. Simon shakes off the cobwebs and shoots for a double, and Bautista shuts him down and pushes off. Bautista lands at the end of a right hand, and Simon gets backed off by subsequent jabs and a knee that bounces off his guard. Bautista reaches out with a right, and Simon responds with a takedown. Bautista stops it, dodges a right hand and sticks out a front kick that smacks Simon in the face right before the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Bautista
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Bautista
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Bautista

Round 3
The bantamweights are ready and rearing to go to start off the final frame, and they proceed to open up with flurries of punches. The heavy shots from Simon continue to bloody the nose of his opponent, but Bautista is accurate and putting up decent numbers. Bautista ducks under a big punch and goes after his own takedown, but Simon turns the tables and lifts him up in the air. In true Matt Hughes fashion, Simon carries Bautista from one side of the cage to the other, and he slams Bautista down on his elbow. Simon lowers himself down in half guard to squeeze with an arm-triangle choke, but Bautista’s leg fighting drags him back to guard. The two scramble madly until Bautista escapes well enough to wall-walk, and he is back up in the blink of an eye. Simon slips a punch and scores a left, and Bautista steps in with a knee that is just short. Bautista does not allow Simon to take a break, but Simon is ready and willing to trade furious. Simon continues to pursue takedowns, and Bautista fights them off and backs Simon up against the cage. Bautista dings Simon with straight punches, more content to touch than load up on anything of merit. Bautista boots Simon in the guts with a kick, and he chains punches together with cardio not an issue at all. Bautista plinks Simon with accurate punches, and Simon desperately goes for a takedown as his gas tank appears to be fading. Bautista stands him up and busts him up with a continuously flood of fists. Simon is tough and still looking for takedowns, but Bautista is a stone wall at this point and ready to throw hands. Simon gets stood up again and tries for a jump knee, and Bautista pursues a takedown to conclude the fight. He does not get it before the bell, ending one heck of a scrap.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Bautista (30-27 Bautista)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Bautista (30-27 Bautista)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Bautista (30-27 Bautista)

The Official Result
Mario Bautista def. Ricky Simon via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley · Aug 19, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mario Bautista 0 90 of 174 51% 108 of 192 4 of 7 57% 0 0 3:00
Da'Mon Blackshear 0 79 of 137 57% 102 of 161 2 of 10 20% 1 0 4:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mario Bautista 0 29 of 48 60% 38 of 57 4 of 5 80% 0 0 2:28
Da'Mon Blackshear 0 19 of 25 76% 27 of 33 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:19
2 Mario Bautista 0 40 of 74 54% 44 of 78 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:27
Da'Mon Blackshear 0 32 of 67 47% 34 of 69 0 of 5 0% 0 0 1:01
3 Mario Bautista 0 21 of 52 40% 26 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Da'Mon Blackshear 0 28 of 45 62% 41 of 59 2 of 5 40% 0 0 2:44
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mario Bautista 90 of 174 51% 48 of 123 22 of 30 20 of 21 52 of 129 37 of 42 1 of 3
Da'Mon Blackshear 79 of 137 57% 48 of 103 21 of 22 10 of 12 51 of 101 24 of 30 4 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mario Bautista 29 of 48 60% 11 of 27 11 of 14 7 of 7 13 of 28 15 of 18 1 of 2
Da'Mon Blackshear 19 of 25 76% 11 of 17 3 of 3 5 of 5 13 of 18 6 of 7 0 of 0
2 Mario Bautista 40 of 74 54% 25 of 54 7 of 11 8 of 9 23 of 56 17 of 18 0 of 0
Da'Mon Blackshear 32 of 67 47% 22 of 55 8 of 9 2 of 3 21 of 53 11 of 14 0 of 0
3 Mario Bautista 21 of 52 40% 12 of 42 4 of 5 5 of 5 16 of 45 5 of 6 0 of 1
Da'Mon Blackshear 28 of 45 62% 15 of 31 10 of 10 3 of 4 17 of 30 7 of 9 4 of 6
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Mario Bautista vs. Da'Mon Blackshear
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Bautista (-225), Blackshear (+180)

Round 1
While the aforementioned Munhoz stepped up last month to save that fight, Blackshear (14-5-1, 2-1-1 UFC) could make history by becoming the first UFC fighter in the modern era to win two fights within seven days – obviously excluding tournament fights from the days of old. Just a week ago, Blackshear hit a twister submission on Jose Johnson, so Bautista (12-2, 4-2 UFC) will have to be on his toes as he goes from expecting to fight striker Cody Garbrandt to someone in Blackshear that holds most of his wins by submission. Keeping this bantamweight scrap on the up-and-up will be referee Bryan Miner, and it starts with a sporting glove touch. Blackshear is the one to push the pace immediately, and he parries a few jabs and strikes back with a leg kick. Bautista responds with his own leg kick that he turns his hips into, and Blackshear strides forward through a second. Blackshear kicks the side, and they come together throwing haymakers. Neither lands with anything cleanly, and Blackshear rolls when Bautista launches a huge right hand. Blackshear crashes the pocket and ties Bautista up in order to go after a trip takedown from behind, and Bautista keeps his balance and works his way to the fence. Blackshear peppers his man with knees while maintaining the body lock, and he succeeds in slinging the MMA Lab product down to the canvas. Bautista’s guard is active the moment he hits the floor, and he works his way to his seat and the cage wall. Blackshear lifts one leg all the way up in the air for a complete split, and Bautista wrenches his leg free and stands back up. Punching his way out of the clinch, Bautista engages another from a different angle so that he can measure “Da Monster” with a knee on the chin. Blackshear connects with a calf kick that nearly trips Bautista up, and Bautista recovers and belts Blackshear in the side of the head with a right hand. Blackshear kicks the body and shoots in for a takedown, and he drops Bautista to one knee but cannot keep him there for more than a couple seconds. As Blackshear circles around, he takes the back and kicks Bautista’s legs out from beneath him to pull off a mat return. Bautista scrambles brilliantly to turn himself around and press himself on top of Blackshear, who is going after another takedown. Bautista snatches this up to secure a guillotine choke, and Blackshear is not remotely concerned as he motions a thumbs-up before pulling his neck out. Both men fight back to their feet, and Blackshear misses with a short elbow as the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Blackshear
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Blackshear
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Blackshear

Round 2
The 135ers touch gloves at the last second, and Blackshear starts off the round with a chopping leg kick. Bautista swings hard back at him, with punches that come extremely close but do not connect. Bautista loads up on punches, and Blackshear crowds him and considers a body lock before eating an elbow on the mug. Bautista turns the tables on him by shooting in for a double, and he clasps his hands but is unable to ground the taller Blackshear. Blackshear cracks Bautista with several short but powerful elbows on the inside, and Bautista gives him one back to break apart. Bautista lashes out with a kick on the calf, and he springs forward with a one-two that is intercepted with a leg kick coming his way. Blackshear ties his opponent up and jams him against the fencing, and he plants an elbow on the ear. Both men wildly jockey for position before releasing their pummels, and Bautista comes out firing with a head kick that brushes past Blackshear’s hair. Blackshear doubles up on three low inside leg kicks, and he chambers and fires one to the body to keep Bautista guessing. Bautista replies with body shots that set up a takedown entry, and Blackshear shuts it down and turns him around in the clinch. The two both connect with short elbows before splitting up, and Blackshear hunts for a takedown in the open cage but shuts it down when Bautista stops him. Bautista gets off a right hand, and Blackshear appears to be slowing and is less elusive than the previous frame. Blackshear shoots in for a double, and he takes Bautista off his feet. Bautista immediately explodes back to his feet, and the two get back to striking range. Blackshear splits the guard with a right hand, and Bautista returns fire with a left hook. Blackshear catches a kick, and Bautista pulls it back and strikes to the lead leg. The two clinch up, and Bautista pursues a single. When Blackshear stops it, Bautista wings an elbow, and Blackshear ducks it and strafes to the side. The round ends with Bautista giving chase.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Blackshear
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Blackshear
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Blackshear

Round 3
There is a final glove touch to commence the final frame. Bautista pushes the pace, and he racks a right hand on the temple. Blackshear wears it well but is putting his back to the cage. Blackshear uses his range to keep Bautista at bay, but Bautista reaches him with several flush right hands. Blackshear is slowing down considerably, while Bautista is finding his home with his big right hand more and more. Bautista pursues a takedown, and Blackshear puts his back flat against the fence to stifle it. Bautista gets off a single elbow before backing off, but he meanders right back to tie his adversary up and go for another level change. Blackshear shuts this down, and he pushes out a few jabs before Bautista shoots again. This time, Blackshear is unable to halt it, and Bautista quickly slides around to take his foe’s back. Bautista gets one hook in as Blackshear pushes his foot off the cage, and Blackshear uses his leverage to turn himself over to his knees. Bautista is a 135-pound weight on his back, keeping Blackshear from standing up for more than a second. Bautista attacks the body with a knee, and he drags Blackshear back down to secure partial back control. Bautista finds himself somehow in a twister setup position, but instead of attempting it, he lands ground-and-pound. Both men fight back to their feet as Blackshear scrambles with all his might, Blackshear appears fresher now and rails Bautista with a straight right hand. Bautista crumbles to the mat, but he is able to recover and open his guard up when Blackshear climbs into it. This allows Bautista to hit a sweep, and he puts Blackshear on his back with seconds left in the fight. A few strikes from the MMA Lab export conclude the match, and it is entirely possible that Blackshear will be the first fighter in modern UFC history to notch two wins within a week.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Bautista (29-28 Blackshear)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Bautista (29-28 Blackshear)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Bautista (29-28 Blackshear)

The Official Result
Mario Bautista def. Da’Mon Blackshear via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 12, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Big Brady picks Mario Bautista to win by first-round knockout, despite hating the line. He notes Bautista has been dominating on the ground but doubts he can take down and submit Cody Garbrandt, who has excellent takedown defense. Instead, Brady believes Bautista will knock Garbrandt out on the feet, as Garbrandt's chin is compromised and he fights cautiously.

win by KO, round 1
"I just see Mario Batista knocking him out just touching the chin at some point... first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Cody thinks Bautista is the better fighter with superior wrestling and striking, but notes Blackshear is durable and has never been finished. He expects Bautista to win a decision, possibly fading in later rounds. He suggests live betting Blackshear after the first round if Bautista starts fast.

over on fight duration; Bautista by decision
"I still gotta take Batista again I just think he is the better Fighter the what ifs of what if this thing gets extended well listen I'm sure he was ready for that"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Aug 17, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Daniel Levi slightly leans toward Mario Bautista, citing his body work, aggression, and pace. He thinks Bautista's pressure will pull him away in the second and third rounds, leading to a decision win. However, he acknowledges that Blackshear is a live dog with plus money, and that the quick turnaround for Blackshear could be a factor. Levi calls it a dog-or-pass situation and respects Blackshear's skills.

Dog or pass; Bautista by decision
"I'm just going to slightly lean towards Bautista... I think the pace of Bautista is going to kind of pull him away in the second and third rounds and kind of get him this decision"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Aug 18, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Mario Bautista

Lucrative James picks Mario Bautista but with hesitation, citing Blackshear's tough weight cut twice in two weeks and Bautista's high pace. He admits he has been wrong on Blackshear twice before, so he is not fully confident. He expects a decision win for Bautista.

"I'm picking Batista to win and I think Batista probably gets it done by decision"
Da'Mon Blackshear - Fight History
LOSS vs Davey Grant
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Whittaker vs. de Ridder · Jul 26, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Davey Grant 0 66 of 130 50% 66 of 133 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
Da'Mon Blackshear 0 33 of 74 44% 36 of 78 1 of 5 20% 1 0 3:52
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Davey Grant 0 3 of 5 60% 3 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
Da'Mon Blackshear 0 2 of 4 50% 4 of 7 1 of 1 100% 1 0 3:52
2 Davey Grant 0 29 of 57 50% 29 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Da'Mon Blackshear 0 17 of 33 51% 18 of 34 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Davey Grant 0 34 of 68 50% 34 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Da'Mon Blackshear 0 14 of 37 37% 14 of 37 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Davey Grant 66 of 130 50% 17 of 67 27 of 39 22 of 24 65 of 128 1 of 1 0 of 1
Da'Mon Blackshear 33 of 74 44% 12 of 45 7 of 13 14 of 16 31 of 72 1 of 1 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Davey Grant 3 of 5 60% 0 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 4 3 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 1
Da'Mon Blackshear 2 of 4 50% 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 1
2 Davey Grant 29 of 57 50% 9 of 31 13 of 19 7 of 7 29 of 57 0 of 0 0 of 0
Da'Mon Blackshear 17 of 33 51% 6 of 17 5 of 9 6 of 7 17 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Davey Grant 34 of 68 50% 8 of 35 14 of 20 12 of 13 33 of 67 1 of 1 0 of 0
Da'Mon Blackshear 14 of 37 37% 4 of 24 2 of 4 8 of 9 13 of 36 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Davey Grant vs. Da'Mon Blackshear
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Blackshear (-270); Grant (+210)

Round 1
Turning 40 in December, Grant (16-7, 7-6 UFC) knows he may be fast approaching the age cliff, although he did win his last bout. He faces a submission magician in Blackshear (17-7-1, 5-3-1 UFC) nearly a decade his junior, which might not be in his best interest as “Dangerous Davey” posts more losses by sub than any other method. With three rounds to work, the bantamweights meet in the middle with no plan on bumping fists, and referee Jason Herzog will take it from there.
Grant opens up with wide low kicks to the thigh, hoping to keep an arc on them that would dissuade an early takedown effort. He goes after the longer legs of Blackshear a few times on the inside and out, and Blackshear still manages to pursue a takedown and hit it. Grant scoots his way to put his back to the fence, and he uses his legs to try to post off and gets some space from “Da Monster.” Grant gets to a knee, and Blackshear welcomes this as he hops to the side and slides a hook in. Blackshear sneaks his leg around the other side, and he follows a turning Grant until he can secure both hooks.
Blackshear does not set up a body triangle, instead retaining control while thwarting attempts to buck and escape. Grant turns over and finds himself in submission danger, as Blackshear grips hold of what turns into a face and neck crank rather than a textbook rear-naked choke. Grant toughs it out and tries to get out of the back take, only for Blackshear to turn to the proper direction to isolate the Brit’s left arm for a potential armbar. Grant stays heavy on his opponent to not allow Blackshear to extend a limb, and he explodes just enough to wrench his arm out of danger. Grant rains down a couple left hands and an elbow as the round concludes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Blackshear
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Blackshear
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Blackshear

Round 2
Grant takes to the center of the cage to start the round, walking down the grappler and punching him a couple times in the stomach. Grant’s blitz forces Blackshear to ricochet off the wire, and he digs a kick to the ribs. Grant doubles up on a jab and follows with an overhand right that is parried, but his jab to the midsection does connect. They back off to disengage for a time, reaching one another with single low kicks but little else. Grant turns his hips into a thumping kick to the lead leg, and Blackshear drives him away with an overhand right. Grant plants punches to the midsection, a left to the dome and a head kick on the other side to keep Blackshear guessing.
Blackshear rebounds off the wire but has become target practice at this point, with little offense offered on his side other than the occasional kick. Grant times a shot by catching Blackshear with an uppercut, and he gets his foe’s attention with a string of punches to follow. Blackshear nods at him, and he wades forward trying to mask a takedown setup with punches that he does not let fly. Both men land hard punches, but Grant’s are far heavier and knock Blackshear back a step or two when he lands flush. Blackshear circles on the outside offering a body kick and keeping his guard up to block a series of punches and a high kick, the similar combination to earlier. Blackshear goes for body kicks, and Grant peppers him with punches and a low kick that makes Blackshear evaluate his footing. As Grant spams high kicks, the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Grant
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Grant
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Grant

Round 3
The bantamweights reach the final frame, and Blackshear says hello again with a calf kick. Grant misses his counter, and Blackshear jabs him up and opens a cut on the bridge of his foe’s nose. Grant is putting a lot of mustard behind his swings, including two concussive blows that make Blackshear bounce off the fencing. Blackshear responds with kicks, but Grant’s fists are having an impact as Blackshear reacts poorly when struck. Grant keeps his man guessing with mixed up punches and kicks to varied targets, like a calf kick to a body shot to a high kick upstairs in rapid succession.
Blackshear targets the wounded spot on his opponent’s forehead to set up a takedown, and Grant’s defense holds up as he clubs “Da Monster” in the jaw with a right hand after stopping the shot. Blackshear goes to his knees for a double, and Grant once more tosses it aside and hurls a right hand at his foe. Blackshear tries to intercept the hard-charging Brit with a knee, and Grant avoids it and starts hammering the front leg with kicks as Blackshear is starting to limp. The kicks from Grant are so powerful that getting checked splits his shin open, as blood flows down his foot to leave partial scarlet footprints around the Octagon. This does not slow him from pitching kicks one second, as he keeps beating on the taller man’s front leg until Blackshear switches stances. When this happens, Grant starts kicking the other leg, and he stops a takedown in its tracks and holds back on firing off a knee that would have been illegal. He lets Blackshear stand, marching him down and hurling right hands at him. Blackshear blocks the worst of them, evading the final strikes as the match comes to a close.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Grant (29-28 Grant)
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Grant (29-28 Grant)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Grant (29-28 Grant)

The Official Result
Davey Grant def. Da'Mon Blackshear via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 20, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Da'Mon Blackshear

Angelo picks Da'Mon Blackshear, stating he wins 7 out of 10 times. He notes Blackshear's athletic striking, speed, power, and grappling, but worries about his hesitancy. Davey Grant is old, chinny, but relentless with volume. Angelo likely will bet on Blackshear but wishes he knew Blackshear would let his hands go.

Likely will bet on Blackshear
"Dean Blackshere is going to be the pick and I'm gonna pick him. I likely have a bet on him at some point this week."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jul 22, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Da'Mon Blackshear

Big Brady picks Da'Mon Blackshear but with hesitation, noting Blackshear has not wrestled in his last four fights despite having a huge grappling advantage. He believes if Blackshear grapples, he will win easily via submission, but if he strikes, he could lose to Grant's awkward volume and power. He predicts a first-round submission.

first round submission
"I got to go Blackshere just because it's like so clear. ... I think he finishes Davy Grant in the very first round by submission."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jul 25, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Da'Mon Blackshear

Connor picks Blackshear, impressed by his complete striking performance against Alateng Heili. He thinks Blackshear's game now looks complete and ready to march up the division. However, he cautions that Grant is a strange and intimidating fighter who will truly test that growth, and notes that the odds are a little wide given Blackshear's history of gassing and getting caught.

"I think he looked so good against Alatec Haile, like contender material. ... I look at that on its own merit and say, this guy's game is now complete."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 23, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Da'Mon Blackshear

Blackshear should be able to chip away at Grant from distance, mix in takedowns, and ultimately lock up a submission to force the tap.

submission
"I believe Blackshere should be able to chip away at Grant from distance, maybe even mix in a few takedowns, but I ultimately think it leads to Blackshire locking up a submission and forcing the tap from Davy Grant."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Da'Mon Blackshear

The MMA Guru picks Da'Mon Blackshear over Davey Grant, citing Blackshear's underrated submission and grappling game, and his composed performance against Eli Alateng. He worries Grant may have declined after neck surgery and time off. He predicts a second-round finish by submission or TKO after a wild first round.

Finish, round 2
"I'm gonna take Deon Blackshere to get this one done by finish. Submission TKO. Second round finish for Deon Blackshere."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jul 25, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Da'Mon Blackshear

Zane picks Blackshear, trusting his recent striking improvement against Alateng Heili. He acknowledges that Grant is a weird, awkward striker who could pose problems, but believes Blackshear's scrambling and grappling give him a strong backup plan. Zane notes that Grant's slowness on the mat could be exploited if Blackshear can tangle with him there.

"I am gonna pick Blackshire, but I love the matchup."
WIN vs Alateng Heili
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Machado Garry vs. Prates · Apr 26, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Da'Mon Blackshear 0 125 of 273 45% 127 of 275 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alateng Heili 0 61 of 190 32% 61 of 191 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:18
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Da'Mon Blackshear 0 37 of 78 47% 37 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alateng Heili 0 11 of 45 24% 11 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Da'Mon Blackshear 0 40 of 96 41% 42 of 98 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alateng Heili 0 25 of 60 41% 25 of 61 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:18
3 Da'Mon Blackshear 0 48 of 99 48% 48 of 99 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alateng Heili 0 25 of 85 29% 25 of 85 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Da'Mon Blackshear 125 of 273 45% 75 of 200 37 of 50 13 of 23 123 of 270 2 of 3 0 of 0
Alateng Heili 61 of 190 32% 34 of 148 19 of 34 8 of 8 60 of 189 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Da'Mon Blackshear 37 of 78 47% 17 of 45 15 of 21 5 of 12 37 of 78 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alateng Heili 11 of 45 24% 7 of 38 1 of 4 3 of 3 11 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Da'Mon Blackshear 40 of 96 41% 24 of 74 11 of 15 5 of 7 39 of 95 1 of 1 0 of 0
Alateng Heili 25 of 60 41% 11 of 41 13 of 18 1 of 1 24 of 59 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Da'Mon Blackshear 48 of 99 48% 34 of 81 11 of 14 3 of 4 47 of 97 1 of 2 0 of 0
Alateng Heili 25 of 85 29% 16 of 69 5 of 12 4 of 4 25 of 85 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 20, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Da'Mon Blackshear

Angelo picks Da'Mon Blackshear, citing his athleticism, speed, power, and ability to mix striking and grappling. He notes that Alateng Heili struggles to combine his skills, and that Blackshear's technical boxing and clean takedowns should prevail. He has Blackshear in a parlay with Joselyne Edwards.

Parlay with Joselyne Edwards at -105 odds
"De Man Blackshere is the pick. He is in the other half of that parlay with Joselyn Edwards."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 22, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Da'Mon Blackshear

Big Brady is confident in Da'Mon Blackshear, highlighting his superior grappling and Alateng Heili's low volume and lack of wrestling. He expects Blackshear to get the fight to the ground and submit Heili, noting a massive skill gap on the mat. He predicts a second-round submission.

second round submission
"I'll take him to win this fight by second round submission."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 25, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Da'Mon Blackshear

Connor picks Blackshear, citing his phenomenal scrambling ability and confidence once he gets momentum. He notes that Alateng Heili is not a big puncher and will likely be pulled into Blackshear's grappling game. Connor also points out that Blackshear's losses have come against elite scramblers, and Alateng Heili is not at that level.

"I think this is a fight that black shear is going to be able to do a lot of scrambling and grappling in. I think he's going to be able to pull alatang highly into that game."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 25, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Da'Mon Blackshear

The host acknowledges Heili's wrestling could cause issues but believes Blackshear's striking power and BJJ black belt will keep him safe and allow him to grind out a decision win.

"I believe Black Shear's power in his striking as well as his BJJ black belt should allow him to stay safe in most of these positions and end up grinding this fight out and winning it on the scorecards."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 22, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Da'Mon Blackshear

The MMA Guru picks Da'Mon Blackshear to win by finish in the first two rounds. He cites Blackshear's reach advantage (5.5 inches), activity, and ability to dictate range. He notes Heili is not a pressure fighter and fights once a year, which hurts his development. He expects Blackshear to hurt Heili and finish via TKO or submission.

finish in first two rounds
"I'm actually going to go De Man Blackshere getting a finish in the first two rounds. I don't know what way he's going to do it. Maybe he hurts him and then finishes him with a submission."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 25, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Da'Mon Blackshear

Zane also picks Blackshear, agreeing that his scrambling will be too much for Alateng Heili. He notes that Alateng Heili is not a powerful puncher and that Blackshear's ability to find position in scrambles is elite. Zane also comments on the odds, saying Blackshear is a bigger favorite than he deserves, but still picks him.

"I think this is a fight that black shear is going to be able to do a lot of scrambling and grappling in. I think he's going to be able to pull alatang highly into that game."
WIN vs Cody Gibson
Submission R2 4:09 · UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2 · Mar 15, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Da'Mon Blackshear 0 13 of 39 33% 46 of 74 0 of 1 0% 3 1 3:32
Cody Gibson 0 45 of 71 63% 53 of 82 1 of 5 20% 0 0 2:42
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Da'Mon Blackshear 0 6 of 16 37% 9 of 21 0 of 0 --- 2 0 1:11
Cody Gibson 0 30 of 43 69% 37 of 52 0 of 4 0% 0 0 2:13
2 Da'Mon Blackshear 0 7 of 23 30% 37 of 53 0 of 1 0% 1 1 2:21
Cody Gibson 0 15 of 28 53% 16 of 30 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:29
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Da'Mon Blackshear 13 of 39 33% 11 of 35 2 of 4 0 of 0 11 of 37 2 of 2 0 of 0
Cody Gibson 45 of 71 63% 23 of 47 12 of 14 10 of 10 31 of 53 14 of 18 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Da'Mon Blackshear 6 of 16 37% 5 of 14 1 of 2 0 of 0 5 of 15 1 of 1 0 of 0
Cody Gibson 30 of 43 69% 16 of 27 9 of 11 5 of 5 21 of 30 9 of 13 0 of 0
2 Da'Mon Blackshear 7 of 23 30% 6 of 21 1 of 2 0 of 0 6 of 22 1 of 1 0 of 0
Cody Gibson 15 of 28 53% 7 of 20 3 of 3 5 of 5 10 of 23 5 of 5 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Da'Mon Blackshear vs. Cody Gibson
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Blackshear (-455), Gibson (+350)

Round 1
Despite their middling records with the promotion, the UFC elected to slot this bantamweight tilt between Blackshear (15-7-1, 3-3-1 UFC) and Gibson (21-10, 3-5 UFC) over names like Spann…and others. Grappling could be the difference maker in this contest, and it commences without the fighters touching gloves. Referee Chris Tognoni stands back and stands by. Gibson loads up on a big right hand to start up, and when it is blocked, Blackshear responds in kind. Blackshear surges forward with body shots and a power right hand, and Gibson replies with an identical flurry that knocks Blackshear to the fencing. Gibson looks for a level change, energetically attacking a single and lifting Blackshear’s leg up. Blackshear frees himself, and Gibson marches him down and pummels him in the ribs several times. Blackshear turtles up, perhaps still compromised from body blows, and Gibson is on him not giving him a moment to breathe. Gibson drills Blackshear with a few more body shots and drops down in pursuit of a double. Blackshear defends with a guillotine choke, using the stalling time to recover. Gibson drives a few knees to the body before breaking off, and he plods forward whipping a kick to the lead leg. When Blackshear scores as left hand, Gibson is in his face with a combination. Blackshear backs him away with a few kicks, and simultaneous kicks results in both men toppling to the mat. They spring back up, and Gibson stabs out a jab and shoots for a single. Blackshear backs to the wall and grips a guillotine choke, pulling guard for it but not completing it. Gibson adjusts himself and lowers Blackshear all the way to the floor, and Blackshear fastens his arm around the chin but does not appear to be threatening in this position. Gibson stays calm in the position, and when he sits up, Blackshear transitions to a power guillotine where he imposes his body weight. Blackshear releases the sub to take side control, and Gibson throws his legs up and briefly snares Blackshear in an inverted triangle choke. Blackshear fights out of it and isolates an arm, and he abandons it to wrap up a brabo choke in a north-south position. Gibson hand-fights well enough to defend the efforts, and he retaliates with an armbar that surprises Blackshear but does not get him. The spirited round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gibson
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Gibson
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Gibson

Round 2
Replays show that right at the tail end of the round, Blackshear rips a nasty elbow that opened a cut on Gibson’s face. The two get back to business, and Blackshear is immediately giving chase with leaping strikes. Gibson walks into a right hand and is stunned, and Blackshear keeps swinging with bad intentions. Gibson throws back, working the body until he tries to hit a takedown, and Blackshear shuts it down and pushes him away. Gibson strings four punches together, wrapping them around the guard and punctuating the combo with a slapping leg kick. Blackshear fakes a kick and slashes an elbow up top, and Gibson steps in with his fists flying. The two engage in a clinch battle where they slug another with uppercuts, and Gibson gets tired of punching and scoops “Da Monster” up and dumps him to the mat. Blackshear keeps his back to the wire, and he hits a switch to flip Gibson to his back. Blackshear finds himself in side control, keeping tightly pressed to “The Renegade” having opened Gibson up again. Blackshear isolates Gibson’s right arm, and he elbows Gibson in the thigh several times with the sharp part of his elbow. Gripping the two-on-one wrist lock, Blackshear alternates between trying to pull on that arm and elbowing his opponent wherever he can. Blackshear grinds the elbow on Gibson’s increasingly bloodied face, and he stays heavy to disallow Gibson from any bucking or twisting. Blackshear hooks Gibson’s left arm between his legs and traps his foe’s right arm under him as well to set up a crucifix position, where he hammers the California native with elbows.
Blackshear finds the kimura again, and he grabs it while seated on top of Gibson’s face in a dominating move. The new Kill Cliff FC convert cranks the limb behind Gibson’s back, giving it all he has until Gibson has no choice but to say “Matte” and tap out.
Remarkable! Back-to-back kimura wins in the Octagon is definitely a rarity in company history, and it will be interesting to determine how many times this has ever happened in UFC history. Blackshear lifts his UFC record above .500 while giving “The Renegade” something to be disappointed about.

The Official Result
Da'Mon Blackshear def. Cody Gibson R2 4:09 via Submission (Kimura)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Da'Mon Blackshear

Angelo picks Da'Mon Blackshear over Cody Gibson. He believes Blackshear's striking is far superior and that he will 'smoke Cody on the feet.' However, he notes that Cody is durable and may look to wrestle. Angelo is confident Blackshear wins but chooses not to bet due to the risk of big favorites losing this year.

"I think the Striking Gap is so wide that I am going to pick them on here I'm pretty confident him to get it done."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 10, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Da'Mon Blackshear

Big Brady picks Da'Mon Blackshear, calling him underrated with good striking and slick grappling (BJJ black belt). He notes that Cody Gibson often looks to take fights to the ground, which could put him in bad positions against Blackshear, who has submitted opponents via guillotine before. Brady expects a ground battle where Blackshear's superior grappling leads to a submission win, likely in the second round.

Blackshear second round submission
"I like blackshire here... I'll take blackshire to win this fight by second round submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2025 (fight day)

Cody picks Christian Rodriguez, citing Andre Fili's decline and Rodriguez's youth. He notes Fili's recent close decisions and losses, and believes Rodriguez can stuff takedowns and win on the feet. He is wary of Rodriguez's tendency to struggle against experienced fighters but thinks Fili is past his prime.

"I got Crod as well because a lot of the same things, which is just narrative. I feel like Phy's kind of on the back nine. Not only is it a little bit slower, he's just a little more disinterested."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Da'Mon Blackshear

Connor agrees with Zane, emphasizing that Blackshear is one of the best scramblers in the bantamweight division and that Gibson's style will inevitably lead to grappling exchanges where Blackshear has the advantage. He notes that Gibson is fun and courageous but lacks the athleticism to keep up with Blackshear's scrambling.

"Got to take him here."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert picked Jan 31, 2024 (409 days before fight)

Daniel does not make a clear pick for this fight. He discusses the matchup briefly but does not state a preference or bet.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Da'Mon Blackshear

The host believes Blackshear's grappling advantage and power striking approach will keep Gibson on the defensive, leading to Blackshear grinding out a win on the scorecards.

"I believe Black Shear is grappling uh Advantage I think he'll be able to keep Gibson at Bay utilizing his power striking approach wrapping Gibson up keeping him on the defensive and that should eventually lead to Black sh grinding …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2025 (fight day)

Paul also picks Rodriguez, noting Fili's inconsistency and Rodriguez's ability to stuff takedowns. He points out that Fili's recent wins have been split decisions and he could be on a losing streak. He believes Rodriguez's volume and wrestling defense will be enough.

"Crod's a pick for me. What about you?"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Da'Mon Blackshear

The MMA Guru picks Da'Mon Blackshear, calling him underrated and noting his good fight with Mario Bautista. He mentions Blackshear's takedown defense clinic against Brett Johns and his recent submission win over Cody Stamann with a 50k bonus. He criticizes Cody Gibson for lacking finishing ability and not impressing against Miles Johns. He predicts a first or second-round finish for Blackshear.

First or second round finish
"I'm going to say first or second round finish for Deon black year I think he's pretty underrated"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Da'Mon Blackshear

Zane picks Blackshear because he is a significantly better athlete and scrambler than Gibson. He notes that Gibson's high-energy style leads to him fading, and that Blackshear excels in scrambles, which is where the fight will likely go. He also points out that Gibson is underpowered and that Blackshear's only losses come to fighters who can survive his scrambles and out-strike him.

Odds: Blackshear opened -428, now -484; Gibson opened +302, now +335.
"Got to take him here."
WIN vs Cody Stamann
Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 4:19 · UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prates · Nov 09, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Da'Mon Blackshear 0 13 of 33 39% 13 of 33 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Cody Stamann 0 20 of 44 45% 21 of 46 0 of 0 --- 3 0 1:19
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Da'Mon Blackshear 0 13 of 33 39% 13 of 33 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Cody Stamann 0 20 of 44 45% 21 of 46 0 of 0 --- 3 0 1:19
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Da'Mon Blackshear 13 of 33 39% 5 of 21 5 of 9 3 of 3 13 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cody Stamann 20 of 44 45% 15 of 36 3 of 4 2 of 4 19 of 43 0 of 0 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Da'Mon Blackshear 13 of 33 39% 5 of 21 5 of 9 3 of 3 13 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cody Stamann 20 of 44 45% 15 of 36 3 of 4 2 of 4 19 of 43 0 of 0 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 3, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Da'Mon Blackshear

Angelo believes Da'Mon Blackshear is the better fighter with far better striking and good wrestling. He thinks Cody Stamann will get outstruck and then shoot sloppy takedowns. However, he notes Blackshear is 2-4 in the UFC and hasn't had a key win over a division staple like Stamann, so he is not confident enough to bet. He might consider a plus 3.5 round bet on Stamann if the odds are good.

considering plus 3.5 round bet on Cody Stamann if odds are favorable
"Daman is just the better fighter here in my opinion he's got the far better striking even though Cody's been boxing for a very long time Daman is faster and he's more than just hands"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Da'Mon Blackshear

Big Brady favors Blackshear due to his size, reach, and youth advantage over the 35-year-old Stamann. He believes Blackshear's striking is underrated and his grappling is elite, with a black belt in BJJ. He expects Blackshear to have success wherever the fight goes and predicts a decision win, though he acknowledges the line may be too wide.

Blackshear by decision
"I'm going to take blackshire to win this fight I'll take him to win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Cody Stamann

Cody is high on Stamann as a dog, citing Blackshear's cardio issues and lack of power. He notes Stamann's wrestling credentials and ability to get back up from takedowns. Cody expects a close decision and thinks the +230 line is too wide for a veteran like Stamann.

"I think Cody ston as a doger pass type situation plus 230 on Cody staman like me likey me likey."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Nov 8, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Cody Stamann

Connor picks Stamann, noting Blackshear is too willing to start from negative positions and it has cost him. He thinks Stamann's neutralizer style will make Blackshear make mistakes. Connor expects a narrow split decision, possibly ugly. He mentions Stamann is the underdog at +217 to +232.

Odds: Stamann +217 to +232, Blackshear -254 to -275. Connor says 'Surprising. I mean, I get that Stamann's coming, you know, he's lost a lot of fights lately, but you can't have to look at, have you seen the fight?'
"I think I have to, I have to pick Stamen. Blackshear is too willing to start from negative positions and it's cost him regularly."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Nov 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Da'Mon Blackshear

Daniel Vreeland picks Da'Mon Blackshear, citing his physical advantages (reach, height) and higher aspirations compared to Cody Stamann, who may be nearing retirement. He acknowledges Stamann's takedown defense and ability to make fights close, but believes Blackshear's grappling and motivation give him the edge. Vreeland expects a close fight.

"I'm gonna pick him for that reason but I would not at all be surprised if this was a very close fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 8, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Cody Stamann

Stamann is being overlooked as a +230 underdog. His defensive wrestling should keep him away from Blackshear's BJJ, allowing him to dictate the striking pace and pull away in the second and third rounds as Blackshear slows down. Expect a decision win.

underdog +230, wins by decision
"I do believe staman is being overlooked as he is a plus 230 Underdog I believe his defensive wrestling will allow him to stay away from the BJJ heavy approach of black here allowing him to dictate the pace in …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Cody Stamann

Paul agrees, questioning how Blackshear can be such a favorite given his recent KO loss and cardio problems. He thinks Stamann's experience and wrestling will keep the fight competitive, and the price is too good to pass up. Paul calls it a clear dogger pass.

"Clear clear dogger pass I will have money on staman as well this week."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Da'Mon Blackshear

The Guru picks Da'Mon Blackshear, citing his size, strength, and youth. He criticizes Cody Stamann's lack of finishing ability and short reach. He notes Blackshear gave Mario Bautista a tough fight and believes he is the better fighter. He mentions the odds might be worth betting on Blackshear as a favorite.

Might be worth some money as a favorite
"I'm very confident he's going to win this fight um I got them on Black Shear I think he's just way better as a fighter"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Nov 8, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Cody Stamann

Zane picks Stamann, agreeing with Connor. He describes Stamann as a solid defensive striker who can bang in the pocket, but notes he never presses advantages. Zane thinks Blackshear's poor striking and tendency to start from negative positions will allow Stamann to neutralize him. He expects a narrow split decision.

Odds: Stamann +217 to +232, Blackshear -254 to -275. Zane says 'Surprising. I mean, I get that Stamann's coming, you know, he's lost a lot of fights lately, but you can't have to look at, have you seen the fight?'
"I think I have to, I have to pick Stamen. Blackshear is too willing to start from negative positions and it's cost him regularly."
LOSS vs Montel Jackson
KO (punch) R1 0:18 · UFC on ESPN: Namajunas vs. Cortez · Jul 13, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Montel Jackson 1 4 of 6 66% 4 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Da'Mon Blackshear 0 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Montel Jackson 1 4 of 6 66% 4 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Da'Mon Blackshear 0 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Montel Jackson 4 of 6 66% 4 of 5 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 0 3 of 3
Da'Mon Blackshear 1 of 1 100% 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Montel Jackson 4 of 6 66% 4 of 5 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 0 3 of 3
Da'Mon Blackshear 1 of 1 100% 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Da'Mon Blackshear vs. Montel Jackson
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Jackson (-162), Blackshear (+136)

Round 1
The prelims continue as bantamweights meet in the Octagon, with Jackson (13-2, 7-2 UFC) putting together a quietly successful run in the UFC as he enters into his 10th fight. The same cannot be said for Blackshear (14-6-1, 2-2-1 UFC), who hopes to break out of his .500 record with a victory. The two will be joined in the cage by referee Nick Berens, who checks them in as they bump fists. Blackshear lands a leg kick earl y, and Jackson responds with a right hand that loops around the guard. They hand-fight, and Jackson sticks out a front kick.
As Blackshear steps in to attack, Jackson releases a lightning-quick one-two that knocks Blackshear clean off his feet. As Blackshear’s head ricochets off the mat, it is clear he is out cold, and Jackson knows that his work here is done but understands the rules and drops down a few unnecessary punches until Berens leaps in.
While the audience explodes in favor of the ultra-fast knockout, Jackson signals to bring it down a few notches and drops a knee out of concern for his wrecked opponent. Blackshear comes to, although he needs to lean on his coach to remain upright, and Jackson is relieved and goes to embrace his fallen foe. The confident Jackson, who finds himself on a mighty win streak after a vicious knockout, simply tells upcoming adversaries during his post-fight interview that they need to “sign the contract.”

The Official Result
Montel Jackson def. Da’Mon Blackshear R1 0:18 via KO (Punch)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 7, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Montel Jackson

Angelo picks Montel Jackson, citing his superior wrestling background (Olympic Training Facility), power, and speed. He notes that while Da'Mon Blackshear is a good underdog with early wrestling initiation, Montel's offensive wrestling and power should be the difference. Angelo plans to wait for prop bets before placing a wager.

Waiting for prop bets to drop before placing a bet.
"Montel is the pick before I place a bet on this fight I'm going to wait for all the props to drop"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Montel Jackson

Cody picks Jackson, citing his striking advantage and improved grappling. He notes Blackshear's cardio issues and short notice, and believes Jackson will win by decision or late TKO. He expects Jackson to stuff takedowns and outwork Blackshear.

"Montel Jackson is going to figure out a way how to get the job done."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Jul 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Da'Mon Blackshear

Daniel Vreeland leans with Da'Mon Blackshear as a plus 130 underdog. He notes that Montel Jackson is talented but inconsistent, often having long periods of inactivity. He thinks Blackshear's pressure and cardio could be factors, though he acknowledges Jackson's high ceiling. He calls it a tough fight to call but prefers the dog.

"I'll lean with the plus 130 dog just because I I could see this you know potentially being line minus 110 a piece so I'll go with the plus 130 dog."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Montel Jackson

Montel Jackson has shown improvements in surviving early rounds and taking over in the second and third. Blackshear tends to slow down later in fights. Jackson will keep the fight upright and use his power to finish Blackshear in the second or third round.

"I think we'll see good improvements here from Jackson in terms of being able to survive early then really start to take over in these second and third rounds"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jul 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Montel Jackson

Paul picks Jackson but is less confident, citing Blackshear's wrestling threat. He notes Jackson's inactivity but believes his striking and cardio advantage will prevail. He expects a competitive fight and may wait for weigh-ins.

"Jackson will be the pick for the purpose of this show."
LOSS vs Mario Bautista
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley · Aug 19, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mario Bautista 0 90 of 174 51% 108 of 192 4 of 7 57% 0 0 3:00
Da'Mon Blackshear 0 79 of 137 57% 102 of 161 2 of 10 20% 1 0 4:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mario Bautista 0 29 of 48 60% 38 of 57 4 of 5 80% 0 0 2:28
Da'Mon Blackshear 0 19 of 25 76% 27 of 33 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:19
2 Mario Bautista 0 40 of 74 54% 44 of 78 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:27
Da'Mon Blackshear 0 32 of 67 47% 34 of 69 0 of 5 0% 0 0 1:01
3 Mario Bautista 0 21 of 52 40% 26 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Da'Mon Blackshear 0 28 of 45 62% 41 of 59 2 of 5 40% 0 0 2:44
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mario Bautista 90 of 174 51% 48 of 123 22 of 30 20 of 21 52 of 129 37 of 42 1 of 3
Da'Mon Blackshear 79 of 137 57% 48 of 103 21 of 22 10 of 12 51 of 101 24 of 30 4 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mario Bautista 29 of 48 60% 11 of 27 11 of 14 7 of 7 13 of 28 15 of 18 1 of 2
Da'Mon Blackshear 19 of 25 76% 11 of 17 3 of 3 5 of 5 13 of 18 6 of 7 0 of 0
2 Mario Bautista 40 of 74 54% 25 of 54 7 of 11 8 of 9 23 of 56 17 of 18 0 of 0
Da'Mon Blackshear 32 of 67 47% 22 of 55 8 of 9 2 of 3 21 of 53 11 of 14 0 of 0
3 Mario Bautista 21 of 52 40% 12 of 42 4 of 5 5 of 5 16 of 45 5 of 6 0 of 1
Da'Mon Blackshear 28 of 45 62% 15 of 31 10 of 10 3 of 4 17 of 30 7 of 9 4 of 6
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Mario Bautista vs. Da'Mon Blackshear
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Bautista (-225), Blackshear (+180)

Round 1
While the aforementioned Munhoz stepped up last month to save that fight, Blackshear (14-5-1, 2-1-1 UFC) could make history by becoming the first UFC fighter in the modern era to win two fights within seven days – obviously excluding tournament fights from the days of old. Just a week ago, Blackshear hit a twister submission on Jose Johnson, so Bautista (12-2, 4-2 UFC) will have to be on his toes as he goes from expecting to fight striker Cody Garbrandt to someone in Blackshear that holds most of his wins by submission. Keeping this bantamweight scrap on the up-and-up will be referee Bryan Miner, and it starts with a sporting glove touch. Blackshear is the one to push the pace immediately, and he parries a few jabs and strikes back with a leg kick. Bautista responds with his own leg kick that he turns his hips into, and Blackshear strides forward through a second. Blackshear kicks the side, and they come together throwing haymakers. Neither lands with anything cleanly, and Blackshear rolls when Bautista launches a huge right hand. Blackshear crashes the pocket and ties Bautista up in order to go after a trip takedown from behind, and Bautista keeps his balance and works his way to the fence. Blackshear peppers his man with knees while maintaining the body lock, and he succeeds in slinging the MMA Lab product down to the canvas. Bautista’s guard is active the moment he hits the floor, and he works his way to his seat and the cage wall. Blackshear lifts one leg all the way up in the air for a complete split, and Bautista wrenches his leg free and stands back up. Punching his way out of the clinch, Bautista engages another from a different angle so that he can measure “Da Monster” with a knee on the chin. Blackshear connects with a calf kick that nearly trips Bautista up, and Bautista recovers and belts Blackshear in the side of the head with a right hand. Blackshear kicks the body and shoots in for a takedown, and he drops Bautista to one knee but cannot keep him there for more than a couple seconds. As Blackshear circles around, he takes the back and kicks Bautista’s legs out from beneath him to pull off a mat return. Bautista scrambles brilliantly to turn himself around and press himself on top of Blackshear, who is going after another takedown. Bautista snatches this up to secure a guillotine choke, and Blackshear is not remotely concerned as he motions a thumbs-up before pulling his neck out. Both men fight back to their feet, and Blackshear misses with a short elbow as the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Blackshear
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Blackshear
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Blackshear

Round 2
The 135ers touch gloves at the last second, and Blackshear starts off the round with a chopping leg kick. Bautista swings hard back at him, with punches that come extremely close but do not connect. Bautista loads up on punches, and Blackshear crowds him and considers a body lock before eating an elbow on the mug. Bautista turns the tables on him by shooting in for a double, and he clasps his hands but is unable to ground the taller Blackshear. Blackshear cracks Bautista with several short but powerful elbows on the inside, and Bautista gives him one back to break apart. Bautista lashes out with a kick on the calf, and he springs forward with a one-two that is intercepted with a leg kick coming his way. Blackshear ties his opponent up and jams him against the fencing, and he plants an elbow on the ear. Both men wildly jockey for position before releasing their pummels, and Bautista comes out firing with a head kick that brushes past Blackshear’s hair. Blackshear doubles up on three low inside leg kicks, and he chambers and fires one to the body to keep Bautista guessing. Bautista replies with body shots that set up a takedown entry, and Blackshear shuts it down and turns him around in the clinch. The two both connect with short elbows before splitting up, and Blackshear hunts for a takedown in the open cage but shuts it down when Bautista stops him. Bautista gets off a right hand, and Blackshear appears to be slowing and is less elusive than the previous frame. Blackshear shoots in for a double, and he takes Bautista off his feet. Bautista immediately explodes back to his feet, and the two get back to striking range. Blackshear splits the guard with a right hand, and Bautista returns fire with a left hook. Blackshear catches a kick, and Bautista pulls it back and strikes to the lead leg. The two clinch up, and Bautista pursues a single. When Blackshear stops it, Bautista wings an elbow, and Blackshear ducks it and strafes to the side. The round ends with Bautista giving chase.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Blackshear
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Blackshear
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Blackshear

Round 3
There is a final glove touch to commence the final frame. Bautista pushes the pace, and he racks a right hand on the temple. Blackshear wears it well but is putting his back to the cage. Blackshear uses his range to keep Bautista at bay, but Bautista reaches him with several flush right hands. Blackshear is slowing down considerably, while Bautista is finding his home with his big right hand more and more. Bautista pursues a takedown, and Blackshear puts his back flat against the fence to stifle it. Bautista gets off a single elbow before backing off, but he meanders right back to tie his adversary up and go for another level change. Blackshear shuts this down, and he pushes out a few jabs before Bautista shoots again. This time, Blackshear is unable to halt it, and Bautista quickly slides around to take his foe’s back. Bautista gets one hook in as Blackshear pushes his foot off the cage, and Blackshear uses his leverage to turn himself over to his knees. Bautista is a 135-pound weight on his back, keeping Blackshear from standing up for more than a second. Bautista attacks the body with a knee, and he drags Blackshear back down to secure partial back control. Bautista finds himself somehow in a twister setup position, but instead of attempting it, he lands ground-and-pound. Both men fight back to their feet as Blackshear scrambles with all his might, Blackshear appears fresher now and rails Bautista with a straight right hand. Bautista crumbles to the mat, but he is able to recover and open his guard up when Blackshear climbs into it. This allows Bautista to hit a sweep, and he puts Blackshear on his back with seconds left in the fight. A few strikes from the MMA Lab export conclude the match, and it is entirely possible that Blackshear will be the first fighter in modern UFC history to notch two wins within a week.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Bautista (29-28 Blackshear)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Bautista (29-28 Blackshear)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Bautista (29-28 Blackshear)

The Official Result
Mario Bautista def. Da’Mon Blackshear via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 12, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Big Brady picks Mario Bautista to win by first-round knockout, despite hating the line. He notes Bautista has been dominating on the ground but doubts he can take down and submit Cody Garbrandt, who has excellent takedown defense. Instead, Brady believes Bautista will knock Garbrandt out on the feet, as Garbrandt's chin is compromised and he fights cautiously.

win by KO, round 1
"I just see Mario Batista knocking him out just touching the chin at some point... first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Cody thinks Bautista is the better fighter with superior wrestling and striking, but notes Blackshear is durable and has never been finished. He expects Bautista to win a decision, possibly fading in later rounds. He suggests live betting Blackshear after the first round if Bautista starts fast.

over on fight duration; Bautista by decision
"I still gotta take Batista again I just think he is the better Fighter the what ifs of what if this thing gets extended well listen I'm sure he was ready for that"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Aug 17, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Daniel Levi slightly leans toward Mario Bautista, citing his body work, aggression, and pace. He thinks Bautista's pressure will pull him away in the second and third rounds, leading to a decision win. However, he acknowledges that Blackshear is a live dog with plus money, and that the quick turnaround for Blackshear could be a factor. Levi calls it a dog-or-pass situation and respects Blackshear's skills.

Dog or pass; Bautista by decision
"I'm just going to slightly lean towards Bautista... I think the pace of Bautista is going to kind of pull him away in the second and third rounds and kind of get him this decision"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Aug 18, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Mario Bautista

Lucrative James picks Mario Bautista but with hesitation, citing Blackshear's tough weight cut twice in two weeks and Bautista's high pace. He admits he has been wrong on Blackshear twice before, so he is not fully confident. He expects a decision win for Bautista.

"I'm picking Batista to win and I think Batista probably gets it done by decision"
WIN vs Jose Johnson
Submission (twister) R1 3:47 · UFC on ESPN: Luque vs. dos Anjos · Aug 12, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Da'Mon Blackshear 0 18 of 30 60% 30 of 46 2 of 4 50% 1 0 2:57
Jose Johnson 0 8 of 12 66% 16 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Da'Mon Blackshear 0 18 of 30 60% 30 of 46 2 of 4 50% 1 0 2:57
Jose Johnson 0 8 of 12 66% 16 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Da'Mon Blackshear 18 of 30 60% 7 of 16 2 of 5 9 of 9 5 of 13 6 of 8 7 of 9
Jose Johnson 8 of 12 66% 4 of 7 2 of 3 2 of 2 7 of 9 0 of 2 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Da'Mon Blackshear 18 of 30 60% 7 of 16 2 of 5 9 of 9 5 of 13 6 of 8 7 of 9
Jose Johnson 8 of 12 66% 4 of 7 2 of 3 2 of 2 7 of 9 0 of 2 1 of 1
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Da'Mon Blackshear

Cody picks Blackshear, citing his solid striking and top game. He notes Johnson's poor takedown defense and that Blackshear can mix in takedowns and control on the ground. He thinks Blackshear's experience against better competition (Yusuf Zalal, Basharat) will pay off. He expects Blackshear to get his first UFC win.

"Damon Blackshear will be the pick"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Aug 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)

James has not taped this fight, which was made 12 hours ago, and offers no pick.

"This fight was made a few hours ago... haven't done tape."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 10, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Da'Mon Blackshear

Blackshear is an explosive and athletic striker with a BJJ black belt, and he does great work in scrambles. Johnson is a striker coming in on short notice, and I have questions about his takedown defense. Blackshear should be able to take advantage of Johnson's layoff and short notice to grind out a decision.

Blackshear by decision
"give me blackstrike here to grind this fight out and Win It by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Da'Mon Blackshear

Paul picks Blackshear, noting his improvements and solid grappling shown in his last fight against Luan Lacerda. He is surprised early action is on Johnson and thinks Blackshear's cardio and grappling will be too much. He expects Blackshear to win by decision or submission.

"for the purposes of this show will be Damon Blackshear with ya"
WIN vs Luan Lacerda
TKO (punches) R2 3:54 · UFC on ESPN: Kara-France vs. Albazi · Jun 03, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Da'Mon Blackshear 0 66 of 135 48% 85 of 158 1 of 2 50% 0 1 2:14
Luan Lacerda 0 28 of 64 43% 31 of 67 1 of 4 25% 1 1 0:26
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Da'Mon Blackshear 0 30 of 60 50% 44 of 76 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:29
Luan Lacerda 0 17 of 34 50% 20 of 37 1 of 2 50% 1 0 0:20
2 Da'Mon Blackshear 0 36 of 75 48% 41 of 82 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:45
Luan Lacerda 0 11 of 30 36% 11 of 30 0 of 2 0% 0 1 0:06
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Da'Mon Blackshear 66 of 135 48% 42 of 103 11 of 17 13 of 15 38 of 96 8 of 13 20 of 26
Luan Lacerda 28 of 64 43% 16 of 42 9 of 19 3 of 3 25 of 61 3 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Da'Mon Blackshear 30 of 60 50% 17 of 41 4 of 8 9 of 11 19 of 43 8 of 13 3 of 4
Luan Lacerda 17 of 34 50% 11 of 24 5 of 9 1 of 1 14 of 31 3 of 3 0 of 0
2 Da'Mon Blackshear 36 of 75 48% 25 of 62 7 of 9 4 of 4 19 of 53 0 of 0 17 of 22
Luan Lacerda 11 of 30 36% 5 of 18 4 of 10 2 of 2 11 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Da'Mon Blackshear

Angelo picks Blackshear, impressed by his toughness and performance in his loss to Fareed. He thinks Blackshear is better than his winless UFC record and can defend Lacerda's takedowns, noting Lacerda is not the wrestler Fareed was. Angelo acknowledges Lacerda is dangerous everywhere but believes Blackshear's speed and accuracy will be key. He placed a $20 bet on Blackshear at +111.

Bet $20 on Blackshear moneyline at +111.
"I think Damon's gonna win this fight I think he's better than his winless UFC record"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Luan Lacerda

Cody picks Lacerda, agreeing with Paul. He notes Lacerda looked like a problem in his debut against Stamann, showing strong takedown defense and striking. Cody highlights Blackshear's poor takedown defense and inability to get back to his feet. He thinks Lacerda's physicality and grappling will be too much, and that -150 is fair.

"minus 150 seems more than fair for Luan lucerta in this spot"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jun 3, 2023 (fight day)
Luan Lacerda

Connor fully agrees with Zane, praising Lacerda's assertiveness and well-rounded skills. He compares Lacerda favorably to a more aggressive version of Hacran Dias, noting that Lacerda knows how to lead and break opponents down methodically. Connor believes Blackshear's lack of striking comfort and tendency to give up the initiative will be exploited by Lacerda's pressure and takedowns.

"I just I really like the look of lasserta"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Luan Lacerda

Daniel picks Lacerda, praising his elite Jiu-Jitsu and ability to sweep and take backs. He notes that Blackshear is explosive and athletic but makes defensive mistakes and puts himself in deep submissions. He believes Lacerda's consistency and grappling will be the difference, and he wouldn't be surprised by a submission win.

"pure pic lacera and I cannot wait"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Luan Lacerda

Jacob picks Lacerda, believing he is the better striker with more power and Muay Thai kicks. He thinks Lacerda is next level on the ground and Blackshear will be outclassed everywhere. Jacob notes Lacerda struggled against Cody's elusive style but Blackshear will be more in front of him. He does not see a finish but expects Lacerda to out-grapple and out-strike Blackshear to win a decision.

"I absolutely have viserada in this fight I believe in the Striking he's a better Striker he's a more powerful Striker"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Luan Lacerda

Lacerda is a BJJ black belt who gets most of his work done on the mat with submissions. Blackshear has cardio issues and his efficiency drops after the first two rounds. Lacerda will land takedowns, establish dominant control, and find a submission in the latter half of the fight.

submission round 2
"give me Luan lacerda via submission let's call it round two"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Luan Lacerda

Paul picks Lacerda confidently, calling him the most value on the card at -150. He notes Lacerda's strong grappling and physicality, and that Blackshear cannot fight off his back. Paul recalls Lacerda's impressive UFC debut against Cody Stamann, where he nearly won. He thinks Lacerda's second fight will show an even better version, and that he has the tools to submit or dominate Blackshear.

"I feel like Lucerne is probably the most value on the card at -150 to be honest with you"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked May 29, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Luan Lacerda

The MMA Guru leans towards Luan Lacerda, acknowledging it's a tough matchup to predict. He notes Lacerda had a competitive fight with Cody Stamann, a tough veteran, and that Lacerda is more talented and had momentum coming into the UFC. He also mentions that Blackshear had a close fight with Farid Basharat and made big mistakes. The Guru thinks Lacerda will mix in grappling and get takedowns, but warns that Blackshear could win by finish as an underdog.

"I am going to lean towards lacerda because he was doing... he did okay against Cody stamen"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 3, 2023 (fight day)
Luan Lacerda

Zane picks Lacerda based on his assertive, front-foot style and well-rounded game. He notes that Blackshear is a good scrambler but tends to let opponents be first, which is dangerous against Lacerda's pressure. Lacerda's solid Muay Thai, power, and wrestling (he even took down Kody Stamann) should allow him to control the fight. Zane believes Blackshear's passive approach will lead to him being outworked and outgrappled.

"luon lasserta is not a fighter you want to let be first"
Expert Picks (4)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 12, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Big Brady picks Mario Bautista to win by first-round knockout, despite hating the line. He notes Bautista has been dominating on the ground but doubts he can take down and submit Cody Garbrandt, who has excellent takedown defense. Instead, Brady believes Bautista will knock Garbrandt out on the feet, as Garbrandt's chin is compromised and he fights cautiously.

win by KO, round 1
"I just see Mario Batista knocking him out just touching the chin at some point... first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Cody thinks Bautista is the better fighter with superior wrestling and striking, but notes Blackshear is durable and has never been finished. He expects Bautista to win a decision, possibly fading in later rounds. He suggests live betting Blackshear after the first round if Bautista starts fast.

over on fight duration; Bautista by decision
"I still gotta take Batista again I just think he is the better Fighter the what ifs of what if this thing gets extended well listen I'm sure he was ready for that"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Aug 17, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Daniel Levi slightly leans toward Mario Bautista, citing his body work, aggression, and pace. He thinks Bautista's pressure will pull him away in the second and third rounds, leading to a decision win. However, he acknowledges that Blackshear is a live dog with plus money, and that the quick turnaround for Blackshear could be a factor. Levi calls it a dog-or-pass situation and respects Blackshear's skills.

Dog or pass; Bautista by decision
"I'm just going to slightly lean towards Bautista... I think the pace of Bautista is going to kind of pull him away in the second and third rounds and kind of get him this decision"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Aug 18, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Mario Bautista

Lucrative James picks Mario Bautista but with hesitation, citing Blackshear's tough weight cut twice in two weeks and Bautista's high pace. He admits he has been wrong on Blackshear twice before, so he is not fully confident. He expects a decision win for Bautista.

"I'm picking Batista to win and I think Batista probably gets it done by decision"
Comments (1)
BR
brian 1 year ago

Cool fight for both