Career Averages - Terrance McKinney
Career Averages - Mike Breeden
Terrance McKinney
Mike Breeden
Terrance McKinney - Fight History
AJ picks Terrance McKinney to win by knockout in the first round. He expects McKinney to blitz King Green early, noting Green keeps his hands down. He suggests McKinney wins under half a round by KO as a live prop.
AJ thinks McKinney will win by first-round blitz, typical of his style. He notes that if McKinney wins, it's almost certainly round one, and the fight is expected to end in round one. He suggests betting McKinney round one and having a live bet option for later rounds. He also mentions King Green decision at +1300 as a meme bet.
AJ picks McKinney to win by first-round blitz, citing Green's hands-down defense as a major vulnerability against McKinney's explosive start. He believes McKinney's speed and power will catch Green early, and that Green's durability is questionable. AJ notes that if Green survives the initial storm, he could win, but he favors McKinney's early finish.
AJ picks Terrance McKinney, citing Green's three-win streak as weak (decisions over Lance Gibson, Zahuber, and a washed Jeremy Stephens). He worries about Green's low hands and McKinney's blitz, and believes if Green survives the first minute, he becomes a live betting spot. He also notes Green should be the favorite or even odds but is plus 120.
AJ is on the fence about this fight, calling it a 50/50. He notes Green is fun to watch but McKinney's quick slime out is live. He mentions the under 1.5 rounds at minus 360 but does not commit to a winner.
AJ picks Terrance McKinney by first-round finish, citing McKinney's explosive blitzing style and King Green's low-hand defense. He believes McKinney's early onslaught will overwhelm Green, who is nearly 40 and has been knocked out before. He notes that if Green survives the first three minutes, he likely wins, but expects McKinney to land a knockout or submission early.
Angelo picks McKinney due to his early danger and tools, but has low confidence because of respect for King Green's experience and durability. He notes McKinney has never seen a third round and tends to gas. He thinks McKinney wins early or loses.
Angelo picks Terrance McKinney because he is more talented, faster, and hits harder. He acknowledges King Green is the better fighter in terms of experience and high-level competition, but believes McKinney's raw talent and athleticism will overwhelm Green early. He expects the fight not to last long and thinks the odds should be closer.
Big Brady picks the under 1.5 rounds, noting that all 13 of Terrance McKinney's UFC fights have gone under 1.5 rounds. He highlights McKinney's extreme first-round finishing ability but poor cardio, leading to a likely early finish either by McKinney or King Green. He suggests McKinney wins under 0.5 rounds if he wins, but does not pick a side on the moneyline.
Big Brady does not pick a winner but bets on the under 0.5 rounds at +200 for 1 unit, citing McKinney's 13-13 record under 1.5 rounds and his tendency to either finish early or get finished. He also includes the under 1.5 rounds in a parlay. He does not explicitly pick a fighter to win, focusing on the round total.
Big Brady picks Terrance McKinney to win by first-round knockout. He likes McKinney's forward pressure and power, and criticizes King Green's hands-down style, which has led to knockouts before. He notes McKinney's cardio issues but believes he will finish within the first two and a half minutes. He thinks Green's recent wins are over lower-level competition.
Big Brady is confident McKinney wins by early knockout, likely in the first minute or two. He notes Green's hands-down style is dangerous against McKinney's pressure. He points out that McKinney has never won a fight lasting more than 2.5 minutes in the UFC, and if he doesn't finish early, he often gets finished himself. He plans to bet the under if the price is right, expecting people to bet the over as a 'sick fetish'.
Cody picks Bobby Green, emphasizing McKinney's lack of heart and durability. He believes Green's experience, power, and submission game will be key. He notes Green's ability to survive the initial onslaught and then take over.
Daniel Levi picks Bobby Green to weather the storm and finish Terrance McKinney, despite Green's age (39). He compares the matchup to McKinney's fight with Eshmael Bonfam, where Bonfam was boxing McKinney up before getting caught. Levi acknowledges McKinney's kill-or-be-killed style and notes that both fighters could win inside the distance, but he has a soft spot for Green and expects him to find a finish.
Jacob picks King Green because he believes McKinney is not that good and can be overwhelmed early. He notes that Green has wrestling of his own and knows how to weather the storm. He thinks Green is a better fighter and if he survives the early onslaught, he will win. He also mentions that McKinney has no cardio and no chin, and that Green is a precise counter boxer.
Lucrative James leans toward Terrance McKinney via KO, calling the fight a coin flip due to McKinney's explosive but inconsistent style. He believes McKinney's athleticism and speed will overwhelm an aging Bobby Green, whose chin is fading. He suggests betting on under 1.5 rounds or specific round-one finishes rather than the moneyline.
The host loves playing McKinney under 1.5 rounds because they always hit. He expects McKinney's speed, explosivity, and power to find the chin of Green early, resulting in a round one knockout.
The host picks McKinney by first-round knockout, citing his power and the fact that all his UFC fights have ended under 1.5 rounds. He recommends betting the under 1.5 rounds regardless of the price, as McKinney's volatility makes the moneyline risky.
Paul picks Bobby Green at plus money, viewing it as a coin flip. He notes McKinney's wild style and tendency to fade, while Green has power and submission threats. He also plans to bet under 1.5 rounds.
The MMA Guru picks Terrance McKinney to win by KO in the first round. He notes McKinney's speed and power, and criticizes Bobby Green's hands-down defense. He thinks McKinney will be too dangerous early and will chin Green. He also mentions a personal anecdote about McKinney's strength.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance McKinney | 0 | 13 of 27 | 48% | 15 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
| Kyle Nelson | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Terrance McKinney | 0 | 13 of 27 | 48% | 15 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
| Kyle Nelson | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance McKinney | 13 of 27 | 48% | 12 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 22 |
| Kyle Nelson | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Terrance McKinney | 13 of 27 | 48% | 12 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 22 |
| Kyle Nelson | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: McKinney (-170); Nelson (+140)
Round 1
If Sherdog still ran the annual All-Violence Team, “T.Wrecks” McKinney (17-8, 7-5 UFC) would likely be a lifetime member, as he has never gone the distance as a pro. He will get to trade blows with Canada’s Nelson (17-6-1, 5-5-1 UFC) in what should be a banger. The lightweights draw oversight from referee Herb Dean, who has donned his proverbial hard hat ahead of what’s about to come. There is not a glove touch before the trail of devastation begins.
In five seconds, McKinney lands three punches and gets Nelson’s attention, tripping during the third when his lead leg gets kicked. Nelson swings back but whiffs, and
McKinney boots him in the raised guard 11 seconds in and puts the Canadian down on the ground. McKinney pounces, and he proceeds to beat Nelson down with a seemingly unending barrage of right hands and hammerfists.
Nelson shells up and is protecting his face from the worst of the damage, but McKinney is the bus that couldn’t slow down and continues clobbering Nelson while Dean is right there watching on. As McKinney keeps sledgehammering “The Monster,” and Dean has no choice to intervene as Nelson is not intelligently defending himself or moving in a way to improve his position. Upwards of 20 blows connect before Dean halts the content, and “T.Wrecks” has done it again. It will not set a new personal record—that will remain with his seven-second destructions of Matt Frevola and Jeff Coleman—but it is another first-round stoppage on his ledger and a very small amount of work after a lengthy camp.
The Official Result
Terrance McKinney def. Kyle Nelson R1 0:24 via TKO (Head Kick and Punches)
Angelo picks Terrance McKinney despite acknowledging his cardio and chin issues. He believes McKinney is the better striker, wrestler, and more powerful, and hopes he puts on a show at home. He admits he went against his own rule of not betting on McKinney and placed a half-unit bet at -141.
Big Brady picks Terrance McKinney to win by first-round knockout. He expects a car crash of a fight, noting both fighters lack durability and have been finished often. He believes McKinney's early pressure and power will be too much for Kyle Nelson, who has been finished in four losses. He thinks McKinney will knock him out in the first few minutes.
Cody picks Nelson, believing McKinney's early explosiveness will fade and Nelson's durability and cardio will take over. He also mentions inside information from Nelson's training partner.
Connor picks Nelson, noting that McKinney is only dangerous in the first round and concedes when he can't get an immediate finish. He points out that McKinney has only won one fight outside the first three minutes in his entire career. Nelson is susceptible early but if he survives, McKinney gives up. Connor says you can't pick a competent fighter to lose to McKinney.
Daniel acknowledges McKinney's first-round finishing ability but is wary of his tendency to fade if he doesn't get the early KO. He picks McKinney but suggests live betting Nelson if the fight goes past two minutes.
The host sees this as a coin flip: McKinney is explosive and dangerous early but has terrible cardio and has never been to a decision; Nelson is slow and hittable but has power and can survive the first round. The implied probabilities (65-40) offer no margin on either side, so the host passes entirely.
The host expects McKinney's explosive power and early aggression to overwhelm Nelson, leading to a first-round knockout. He notes McKinney's tendency to finish early and that all his UFC fights have ended under 1.5 rounds. He is less confident in betting McKinney straight due to his style's volatility but likes the under 1.5 rounds prop.
Paul agrees, noting McKinney's history of gassing and Nelson's ability to survive early storms. He expects Nelson to win after the first round.
The MMA Guru picks Kyle Nelson using reverse psychology, as he often picks McKinney to win by first-round TKO but McKinney fumbles. He believes McKinney will wobble Nelson early but then fade, allowing Nelson to take over in the second and third rounds with elbows and pressure. He notes McKinney's inconsistency.
Zane agrees, stating that McKinney's pattern is clear: he comes in keyed up and if he doesn't finish early, he gives up. He compares McKinney to the ID of fighters like McGregor and Pyfer. Nelson is a competent fighter who can survive the early storm. Zane notes that Nelson could lose if he gets caught early, but otherwise McKinney has no answer.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance McKinney | 0 | 31 of 57 | 54% | 31 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Chris Duncan | 1 | 38 of 55 | 69% | 53 of 75 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 1:10 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Terrance McKinney | 0 | 31 of 57 | 54% | 31 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Chris Duncan | 1 | 38 of 55 | 69% | 53 of 75 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 1:10 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance McKinney | 31 of 57 | 54% | 26 of 50 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 24 of 45 | 6 of 11 | 1 of 1 |
| Chris Duncan | 38 of 55 | 69% | 36 of 51 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 10 of 20 | 6 of 8 | 22 of 27 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Terrance McKinney | 31 of 57 | 54% | 26 of 50 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 24 of 45 | 6 of 11 | 1 of 1 |
| Chris Duncan | 38 of 55 | 69% | 36 of 51 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 10 of 20 | 6 of 8 | 22 of 27 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Duncan (-170), McKinney (+142)
Round 1
Marc Goddard is the referee. McKinney walks Duncan into the fence and lands a massive knee followed by a head kick. That sets off a wild exchange where McKinney appears to get the best of the brawl by rocking his adversary with several heavy punches. A rocked Duncan wisely shoots out of desperation, and he somehow gets McKinney down. McKinney is up in short order, and he lands an elbow and a knee. Duncan, who still looks to be on shaky legs, somehow rocks McKinney with a right hand at range. They continue to trade with reckless aggression and just when it seems like Duncan is reeling, he rocks his foe with a wicked elbow in close quarters. McKinney crumbles to the floor and Duncan tees off with a series of unanswered punches. Goddard is taking a close look as the assault continues. Duncan’s punches aren’t especially powerful, though, so McKinney is getting some leeway. McKinney doesn’t seem to have much left, and the Scot decides to shift gears.
Duncan locks up an anaconda choke and applies the squeeze. McKinney taps in short order
, ending a wild bout that lived up to its violence potential.
The Official Result
Chris Duncan def. Terrance McKinney via Submission (Anaconda Choke) R1 2:30
Angelo picks Terrance McKinney despite acknowledging his poor durability and cardio. He believes McKinney is incredibly dangerous early and can get the fight to the ground to find a finish. He notes that Chris Duncan is extremely durable and often comes back from being hurt, but Angelo thinks McKinney's early explosiveness will be enough. He advises against betting due to the high risk.
Big Brady picks Chris Duncan, noting McKinney's tendency to fade after early bursts and his seven career finishes. He highlights Duncan's improved ground game and chin, and expects Duncan to weather the early storm and knock out McKinney late in the first round.
Cody leans toward McKinney, citing his explosive start and finishing ability. He notes that McKinney's fights are usually over in the first round and that Duncan has shown a questionable chin. He mentions that if McKinney doesn't finish early, Duncan's cardio advantage could come into play, but he trusts McKinney's early burst.
Connor picks Chris Duncan, noting that Duncan has improved significantly at ATT, developing a calm, consistent striking game with good shot selection and power. He contrasts McKinney's all-gas-no-brakes style that fades after two minutes, and believes Duncan has the answers to McKinney's early blitz.
Daniel picks Duncan, reasoning that if he survives McKinney's first-round onslaught, he will take over. He notes McKinney has never been past the first round and fades, while Duncan has shown durability and finishing ability. He sees Duncan winning by knockout or submission in later rounds.
Lucrative James acknowledges his bias as a friend of Chris Duncan but provides detailed reasoning. He believes McKinney's only chance is an early finish, while Duncan's physicality, cardio, and improving grappling defense will carry him through. He notes Duncan's training with Grant Dawson and focus on back-take defense. He predicts Duncan wins inside the distance, likely by KO.
The host acknowledges the recent love for McKinney but expects Duncan to take advantage of McKinney's overaggressive style and find a finish within one and a half rounds.
Paul picks Duncan, emphasizing his multiple paths to victory. He notes that McKinney's win condition is a first-round finish, while Duncan has power, a guillotine choke, and cardio. He mentions that Duncan trains at American Top Team and has prepared for McKinney's wrestling. He believes if McKinney doesn't finish early, Duncan will take over.
The Guru picks Terrance McKinney despite acknowledging Duncan may be the better fighter. He believes McKinney's speed and first-round explosiveness will catch Duncan, who is hittable early. The Guru predicts a first-round TKO, possibly in the first minute.
Zane picks Chris Duncan, emphasizing that McKinney has never won a UFC fight outside the first two minutes and loses when his initial blitz fails. He notes Duncan's improved striking and power, and believes Duncan can weather the early storm and take over. Zane thinks the odds should be wider in Duncan's favor.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance McKinney | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 0:47 |
| Viacheslav Borshchev | 0 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Terrance McKinney | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 0:47 |
| Viacheslav Borshchev | 0 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance McKinney | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
| Viacheslav Borshchev | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Terrance McKinney | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
| Viacheslav Borshchev | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: McKinney (-185), Borshchev (+154)
Round 1
Fans should be treated to a delight with this lightweight smash-em-up derby. In the one corner stands McKinney (16-7, 6-4 UFC), who has reached the third round just one time in 23 pro outings. In the other is brick-fisted Team Alpha Male product Borshchev (8-5-1, 3-4-1 UFC), who is looking to even his promotional record to .500 should he get his hand raised tonight. Bettors and prognosticators expect this one should not hear the final bell, with odds hovering around -800 to -900 that it ends inside the distance. If that is the case, referee Chris Tognoni will need to be on his A game to intervene at a moment’s notice. Gloves are touched before they are traded.
Borshchev introduces himself with a spinning back kick that plants on the ribcage of McKinney, who then shoots for a double that sends them flying. McKinney gets on top and wraps up an anaconda choke as soon as they hit the ground, and Borshchev is in the danger zone in a hurry.
“T. Wrecks” uses the submission to roll the Team Alpha Male fighter over to his back, where he assumes full mount and transitions to a guillotine choke. The choke is fastened as tight as can be, and Borshchev has his arms trapped and flails his legs to try to buck himself out. His head starts to turn a shade of red that matches McKinney’s shorts, and before he is put to sleep, he surrenders.
Just like that, the fight is over, and McKinney stands up, looks at the camera and smiles while shrugging. The fighters hug it out after the brief but emphatic performance, waiting nearly as long for the official decision to be read as it took for McKinney to win the fight.
The Official Result
Terrance McKinney def. Viacheslav Borshchev R1 0:55 via Submission (Guillotine Choke)
Angelo picks Terrance McKinney because he believes McKinney's early explosiveness will overwhelm Viacheslav Borshchev, who is older and may not be as durable as before. He notes that McKinney is reliable in that he either finishes early or loses, and he thinks McKinney will come out like a bat out of hell and get the job done. However, he admits he is picking against Borshchev more than for McKinney, and he will monitor the odds for a good betting spot.
Big Brady acknowledges McKinney is the rightful favorite due to his wrestling and power, but he is hesitant because both fighters have questionable durability. He notes Borshchev has terrible takedown defense and was dropped by Chase Hooper, but McKinney's cardio is atrocious and his durability is also suspect. Brady thinks McKinney will land first and win by first-round knockout, but if it leaves the first round, McKinney is in trouble.
Connor picks McKinney, acknowledging Borshchev's durability but noting that Borshchev has been getting worse and more indecisive. McKinney's early explosiveness should catch Borshchev, and if he finishes early, he wins. However, Connor admits it's a risky pick.
The host notes McKinney's tendency for early finishes, but picks Borshchev to fend off the early grappling and get a TKO finish by the end of the first or early second round.
The host picks Terrance McKinney, citing his underrated grappling as the X-factor. He notes that Borshchev has shown weaknesses in grappling, as seen in his losses to Chase Hooper and others. However, he acknowledges McKinney's tendency to get knocked out spectacularly and sees the fight as a 50/50 on the feet. He believes McKinney will use his wrestling to secure a win.
Zane picks Borshchev, reasoning that McKinney only wins if he finishes in the first round, and Borshchev has never been finished early. Borshchev's durability and McKinney's tendency to fade give Borshchev the edge if he survives the initial onslaught.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance McKinney | 0 | 54 of 69 | 78% | 69 of 90 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 1 | 1:00 |
| Damir Hadžović | 0 | 4 of 13 | 30% | 4 of 13 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Terrance McKinney | 0 | 54 of 69 | 78% | 69 of 90 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 1 | 1:00 |
| Damir Hadžović | 0 | 4 of 13 | 30% | 4 of 13 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance McKinney | 54 of 69 | 78% | 53 of 67 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 46 of 51 |
| Damir Hadžović | 4 of 13 | 30% | 3 of 9 | 0 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Terrance McKinney | 54 of 69 | 78% | 53 of 67 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 46 of 51 |
| Damir Hadžović | 4 of 13 | 30% | 3 of 9 | 0 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Lightweights step into the spotlight for the first time, as McKinney (15-7, 5-4 UFC) toes the line against Hadzovic (14-7, 4-5 UFC)—the oldest fighter on the card at 38 years of age. Jason Herzog handles the refereeing duties. We get underway with a glove touch. Body kick from McKinney, followed by a glancing head kick. Two-punch volley from Hadzovic. One-two from McKinney backs up the Bosnian. Hadzovic answers and shoots on a takedown.
McKinney catches a guillotine on the way down and rolls into full mount and unleashes vicious 12-to-6 elbows. He settles on the back and fires away with punches from both hands, prompting the stoppage
.
The Official Result
Terrance McKinney def. Damir Hadzovic—TKO (Punches) 2:01 R1
Angelo picks Terrance McKinney despite his unreliability, citing his superior talent, wrestling, and striking. He notes that Damir Hadžović is older (38) and not as dangerous. He worries about McKinney's cardio and chin but believes he should win early. He suggests looking at round props rather than betting the moneyline at -335.
Big Brady sees this as an easy matchup for Terrance McKinney, who has great wrestling and BJJ. Damir Hadžović has the worst takedown defense in the UFC and has been submitted before. Brady thinks McKinney will take him down and submit him in the first round, though he notes McKinney has terrible cardio if the fight extends. He predicts a first-round submission.
McKinney has a massive grappling advantage and will look to get the fight to the ground immediately. He is expected to take the back and secure a first-round submission, as he has done in all nine of his UFC fights. The fight is predicted to go under 1.5 rounds.
The MMA Guru picks Terrance McKinney to win by TKO in the first round. He believes McKinney has finishing potential while Hadžović does not, and that Hadžović is past his prime and likely to be decisioned. He notes McKinney's losses are brutal but expects him to get the job done here.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esteban Ribovics | 0 | 5 of 18 | 27% | 5 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Terrance McKinney | 1 | 5 of 12 | 41% | 5 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Esteban Ribovics | 0 | 5 of 18 | 27% | 5 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Terrance McKinney | 1 | 5 of 12 | 41% | 5 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esteban Ribovics | 5 of 18 | 27% | 3 of 16 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 16 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Terrance McKinney | 5 of 12 | 41% | 3 of 8 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 10 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Esteban Ribovics | 5 of 18 | 27% | 3 of 16 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 16 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Terrance McKinney | 5 of 12 | 41% | 3 of 8 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 10 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Ribovics (-175), McKinney (+145)
Round 1
The matchmakers made sure at least one fight on the billing would practically promise bonkers action for as long as it lasts, and this is that bout. In 21 pro outings, McKinney (15-6, 5-3 UFC) has never heard the final bell, while Ribovics (12-1, 1-1 UFC) has gone the distance twice after 13 appearances. Referee Gary Copeland has donned his hard hat for what could be a wild and crazy first round, although it starts with a calm glove touch. McKinney immediately opens up with a one-two, and he takes a low kick and throws back hard. Ribovics sits down on a power punch, and he absorbs a flush combination and catches McKinney with a knee when “T. Wrecks” bends over. McKinney connects with a right hand, and
Ribovics tosses out a few punches, reaches with a right hand and sets up one of the most beautiful head kicks one can muster as it collides square into McKinney’s head. McKinney is out cold as soon as the shin makes contact, and he collapses lifelessly to his seat as his back bounces into the fence behind him.
Blood leaks out of his nose as he sits there, totally unconscious. Ribovics knows that he does not need to do anything else today, and he proudly walks away as Copeland tends to the snoozing lightweight. Wow, what a finish! “Knockout of the Year” has one more contender in an already crowded list with that absolute gem, and Ribovics has officially announced himself to the lightweight division in a massive way.
The Official Result
Esteban Ribovics def. Terrance McKinney R1 0:37 via KO (Head Kick)
Angelo picks Esteban Ribovics as the more durable and dependable fighter, despite Terrance McKinney's raw talent and explosiveness. He notes Ribovics has been taken down 14 times in his last five fights, but McKinney has been finished in every loss. He acknowledges the fight is close to 50/50 and that McKinney could win if he lands early.
Big Brady picks Esteban Ribovics to survive McKinney's early storm and finish him in the late first or second round by knockout. He notes McKinney has never won a UFC fight past the first round and tends to gas if he doesn't finish early. Ribovics has durability, cardio, heart, and finishing ability. He expects McKinney to try wrestling, but if he doesn't finish, he will fade and get finished himself.
Cody picks Ribovics, noting that McKinney is a 'glass cannon' who gasses after the first round. He expects McKinney to come out fast and possibly take Ribovics down early, but Ribovics has shown he can survive and come back. Cody likes the under 1.5 rounds prop as parlay fodder, as McKinney fights are usually short. He suggests live betting Ribovics if McKinney wins the first round.
Daniel Vreeland picks Esteban Ribovics, noting that McKinney is dangerous in the first round but fades if he doesn't get the finish. He believes Ribovics can survive the early onslaught and take over late, getting a finish. He mentions Ribovics' ability to get back to his feet and his late-round power.
The host expects McKinney's early explosiveness to overwhelm Ribovics, likely via knockout in round 1. He notes McKinney's tendency to gas but believes Ribovics' takedown defense issues will be exploited. He strongly recommends the under 1.5 rounds as a must-play, and also likes McKinney round 1 prop. The pick is confident for the early finish, though he acknowledges the risk if McKinney fails.
Paul picks Ribovics, agreeing that McKinney is a first-round specialist who fades. He notes that Ribovics has a strong chin and cardio, and can take McKinney's best shots. Paul expects Ribovics to survive the early storm and take over in the second round. He also likes the under 1.5 rounds prop due to McKinney's tendency to finish or get finished quickly.
The MMA Guru picks Terrance McKinney as an underdog over Esteban Ribovics. He notes that McKinney has a wrestling background he doesn't always use but can rely on, and that Ribovics is hook-heavy with a reach disadvantage. He references Ribovics' fight with Kamuela Kirk where Kirk took him down and controlled him, suggesting McKinney can do the same. He also trusts McKinney's cardio and power on the feet.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance McKinney | 1 | 14 of 21 | 66% | 14 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Brendon Marotte | 0 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Terrance McKinney | 1 | 14 of 21 | 66% | 14 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Brendon Marotte | 0 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance McKinney | 14 of 21 | 66% | 14 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 19 |
| Brendon Marotte | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Terrance McKinney | 14 of 21 | 66% | 14 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 19 |
| Brendon Marotte | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: McKinney (-450), Marotte (+300)
Round 1
Lightweights are next to the stage, as McKinney (14-6, 4-3 UFC) squares off with the once-beaten Marotte (8-1, 0-0 UFC)—a short-notice substitution for Chris Duncan. Marotte, 26, has won three fights in a row. Herb Dean answers the call to preside over the match.
McKinney connects with a clean knee strike in their first exchange, and Marotte hits the deck in a horrendous start to his promotional debut. McKinney trails him to the canvas and unleashes a string of unanswered punches that necessitate a quick stoppage
.
The Official Result
Terrance McKinney def. Brendon Marotte—TKO (Knee and Punches) 0:20 R1
Big Brady picks Terrance McKinney to win by first-round submission. He notes McKinney is dangerous early with power and wrestling, while Marotte is a big step up in competition and may not survive the first round. He warns that if Marotte survives, he could win, but expects McKinney to get it done quickly.
Cody picks McKinney, emphasizing that Marotte is a huge underdog with no recent fights and a shaky defense. He notes that McKinney's pressure and power are likely to overwhelm Marotte early. Cody suggests that if Marotte survives the first round, he could be live, but he doubts that will happen.
The host picks Terrance McKinney by round one, noting his explosive power and fast starts. He highlights that 19 of 20 McKinney fights finished under 1.5 rounds. However, he warns against the moneyline due to cardio issues and suggests taking McKinney round one or under 1.5 rounds.
Paul picks McKinney, noting his explosive first-round power and the fact that Marotte has no recent tape and is stepping in on short notice. He acknowledges McKinney's cardio issues but believes Marotte is not durable enough to survive the first round. Paul suggests betting McKinney round 1 or Marotte round 2 as value plays.
The MMA Guru picks Terrance McKinney to win by TKO over Brendan Marotte. He dismisses Marotte as an awful regional fighter who beat an 11-20 opponent and went to a split decision with an 8-4 fighter. He notes Marotte trains at New England Cartel but lacks quality wins. He believes McKinney has a speed advantage and won't be outgrappled, and that Marotte's short notice and lack of durability will lead to a finish.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance McKinney | 0 | 30 of 47 | 63% | 30 of 47 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Mike Breeden | 0 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 1 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Terrance McKinney | 0 | 30 of 47 | 63% | 30 of 47 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Mike Breeden | 0 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 1 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance McKinney | 30 of 47 | 63% | 23 of 36 | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 30 | 11 of 14 | 3 of 3 |
| Mike Breeden | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Terrance McKinney | 30 of 47 | 63% | 23 of 36 | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 30 | 11 of 14 | 3 of 3 |
| Mike Breeden | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: McKinney (-270), Breeden (+220)
Round 1
Referee Chris Tognoni is on the highest of alerts for this lightweight preliminary clash, one that could end in the blink of an eye. A 19-fight veteran, McKinney (13-6, 3-3 UFC) has still never gone the distance, and his foe Breeden (10-5, 0-2 UFC) is no stranger to the knockout himself. Little more needs to be said other than that these two fighters sportingly touch hands before getting after it. McKinney pressures forward immediately, landing a right hand and changing levels for a single. McKinney lets it go and slings a head kick, and it bounds off the guard as Breeden ricochets off the fencing. Breeden comes back at him, and McKinney aims another head kick his way. Breeden kicks the ribs, and McKinney catches it and thinks about taking the fight down, but he releases it so that he can sling a right hand. Breeden throws a right hand, and McKinney blasts him in the body and bends Breeden over. Breeden is in a bad way, and he gets pounded with strikes as McKinney pounces on him. Breeden tries to take him down, but McKinney shuts him down and knees him several times to the chest and midsection.
Breeden is barely still with it, as he gets smashed with punches and knees. Breeden tries to escape, but McKinney is on him, unleashing a fury of fists until Tognoni leaps in between them to stop the fight.
This was a much-needed victory for the promising “T. Wrecks,” who reminds the division that he is still very much here and a force to be reckoned with.
The Official Result
Terrance McKinney def. Mike Breeden R1 1:25 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo picks McKinney but with low confidence due to cardio concerns and the short-notice turnaround. He notes McKinney has solid wrestling and BJJ but gasses and has a questionable chin. He is staying away from the -400 odds but suggests prop bets like McKinney winning the first round or getting more takedowns.
Big Brady picks Terrance McKinney to win by knockout early in the first round, likely within 60 seconds. He notes McKinney's dangerous striking and wrestling but acknowledges his poor cardio and short-notice fight. He believes McKinney will finish Breeden quickly, as Breeden has awful takedown defense and has been finished before. However, he cautions that if McKinney doesn't finish in the first round, he is likely to lose.
Cody picks Breeden by second-round finish as a prop bet, not on the moneyline. He notes McKinney's notorious cardio issues and short-notice fight (27 days after his last fight). He thinks if Breeden survives the first round, he will take over. He recommends a small sprinkle on Breeden round 2 at long odds, or live betting after the first round.
James is leaning toward Breeden as a value play, noting McKinney is a round-one-or-bust fighter and is priced at -300. He thinks Breeden is tough with good cardio and could survive the early storm. James admits McKinney could get back on track but feels the odds are too high for such a volatile fighter. He might bet Breeden.
McKinney has cardio issues but is extremely powerful and athletic early. Breeden is coming off a long layoff and camp change. McKinney's under 1.5 rounds streak is 18 of 19 fights, so the under is a strong play. McKinney should get the TKO in the first round due to his speed and power.
Paul also likes Breeden as a live underdog or round 2/3 prop. He notes McKinney's cardio fades after the first round and that Breeden has shown good cardio in past fights, especially in the third round against Natan Levy. He thinks Breeden can survive the initial onslaught and take over later. He recommends a small bet on Breeden round 2 or 3.
The MMA Guru picks Terrance McKinney but is hesitant, acknowledging McKinney's cardio issues and tendency to gas after round one. He believes McKinney is the better fighter and should win by first-round KO if he fights aggressively, but warns that if the fight goes past round one, Breeden could take over. He suggests a live bet on Breeden if McKinney gasses.
Mike Breeden - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Breeden | 1 | 92 of 177 | 51% | 94 of 181 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Anshul Jubli | 0 | 103 of 194 | 53% | 104 of 195 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mike Breeden | 0 | 29 of 51 | 56% | 29 of 51 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Anshul Jubli | 0 | 44 of 88 | 50% | 44 of 88 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Mike Breeden | 0 | 29 of 68 | 42% | 31 of 72 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Anshul Jubli | 0 | 48 of 84 | 57% | 49 of 85 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:05 | |
| 3 | Mike Breeden | 1 | 34 of 58 | 58% | 34 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Anshul Jubli | 0 | 11 of 22 | 50% | 11 of 22 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Breeden | 92 of 177 | 51% | 75 of 157 | 11 of 13 | 6 of 7 | 89 of 174 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
| Anshul Jubli | 103 of 194 | 53% | 63 of 145 | 27 of 36 | 13 of 13 | 97 of 181 | 6 of 13 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mike Breeden | 29 of 51 | 56% | 21 of 41 | 4 of 5 | 4 of 5 | 28 of 50 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Anshul Jubli | 44 of 88 | 50% | 23 of 62 | 14 of 19 | 7 of 7 | 40 of 81 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Mike Breeden | 29 of 68 | 42% | 23 of 61 | 4 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 28 of 67 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Anshul Jubli | 48 of 84 | 57% | 33 of 66 | 11 of 14 | 4 of 4 | 46 of 78 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Mike Breeden | 34 of 58 | 58% | 31 of 55 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 33 of 57 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Anshul Jubli | 11 of 22 | 50% | 7 of 17 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 11 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Anshul Jubli but thinks he is not a -400 fighter. He notes Breeden's poor takedown defense (taken down 9 times by Natan Levy) and good get-up game, but expects Jubli's constant pressure and takedowns to be too much. He is confident in Jubli winning but may not bet at those odds.
Big Brady picks Anshul Jubli to win by third round TKO. He notes that Mike Breeden is 0-3 in the UFC with two first-minute losses, while Jubli is a Road to UFC winner who impressed in his debut against Jack Cartwright. Brady likes Jubli's wrestling, control, and ground-and-pound, and expects him to break Breeden as the fight goes on. He also likes the prop of Jubli over 1.5 takedowns on PrizePicks.
Cody picks Breeden, echoing that Jubli's competition is weak and that Breeden has fought better fighters. He notes that Breeden has shown he can go the distance and outwork opponents, while Jubli has not proven his cardio or chin. Cody expects Breeden to win a decision or late finish.
Daniel picks Anshul Jubli to win, arguing that Mike Breeden is a journeyman ranked 233rd in the world and has been knocked out by low-level fighters. He believes Jubli is a legitimate prospect who can use his physicality to win, though he admits Jubli is green and will eventually be faded. He thinks this is a winnable fight for Jubli and that Breeden is not the guy to expose him.
James had a 3-unit bet on Mike Breeden moneyline at +235 and a quarter-unit bet on Breeden to win in round three at +2000. He noted that Breeden lost the first round but was still in the fight, and that Breeden's pressure and durability paid off in round three when he knocked out Jubli. James praised Breeden's dog mentality but criticized his fight IQ for barking instead of finishing earlier. The win cashed 12 units total from the moneyline and round three prop.
Jubli is the more active fighter with a BJJ background and long-range weapons. He should be able to complete takedowns and use volume to touch up Breeden. However, there are question marks about his level of competition. Expects Jubli to cruise to a decision win as long as he doesn't get clipped.
Paul picks Breeden as a dog, arguing that Jubli is untested and has faced weak competition. He notes that Breeden has fought much tougher opponents and has shown heart and volume. Paul believes Breeden's wrestling and striking will be too much for Jubli, and that the line is inflated.
The MMA Guru is very confident in Anshul Jubli, calling Mike Breeden terrible and not UFC level. He predicts a second-round TKO via ground and pound after a risky first round. He notes that the UFC is feeding Breeden to prospects and that Jubli is big and strong enough to take him down and beat him up.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance McKinney | 0 | 30 of 47 | 63% | 30 of 47 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Mike Breeden | 0 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 1 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Terrance McKinney | 0 | 30 of 47 | 63% | 30 of 47 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Mike Breeden | 0 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 1 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance McKinney | 30 of 47 | 63% | 23 of 36 | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 30 | 11 of 14 | 3 of 3 |
| Mike Breeden | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Terrance McKinney | 30 of 47 | 63% | 23 of 36 | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 30 | 11 of 14 | 3 of 3 |
| Mike Breeden | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: McKinney (-270), Breeden (+220)
Round 1
Referee Chris Tognoni is on the highest of alerts for this lightweight preliminary clash, one that could end in the blink of an eye. A 19-fight veteran, McKinney (13-6, 3-3 UFC) has still never gone the distance, and his foe Breeden (10-5, 0-2 UFC) is no stranger to the knockout himself. Little more needs to be said other than that these two fighters sportingly touch hands before getting after it. McKinney pressures forward immediately, landing a right hand and changing levels for a single. McKinney lets it go and slings a head kick, and it bounds off the guard as Breeden ricochets off the fencing. Breeden comes back at him, and McKinney aims another head kick his way. Breeden kicks the ribs, and McKinney catches it and thinks about taking the fight down, but he releases it so that he can sling a right hand. Breeden throws a right hand, and McKinney blasts him in the body and bends Breeden over. Breeden is in a bad way, and he gets pounded with strikes as McKinney pounces on him. Breeden tries to take him down, but McKinney shuts him down and knees him several times to the chest and midsection.
Breeden is barely still with it, as he gets smashed with punches and knees. Breeden tries to escape, but McKinney is on him, unleashing a fury of fists until Tognoni leaps in between them to stop the fight.
This was a much-needed victory for the promising “T. Wrecks,” who reminds the division that he is still very much here and a force to be reckoned with.
The Official Result
Terrance McKinney def. Mike Breeden R1 1:25 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo picks McKinney but with low confidence due to cardio concerns and the short-notice turnaround. He notes McKinney has solid wrestling and BJJ but gasses and has a questionable chin. He is staying away from the -400 odds but suggests prop bets like McKinney winning the first round or getting more takedowns.
Big Brady picks Terrance McKinney to win by knockout early in the first round, likely within 60 seconds. He notes McKinney's dangerous striking and wrestling but acknowledges his poor cardio and short-notice fight. He believes McKinney will finish Breeden quickly, as Breeden has awful takedown defense and has been finished before. However, he cautions that if McKinney doesn't finish in the first round, he is likely to lose.
Cody picks Breeden by second-round finish as a prop bet, not on the moneyline. He notes McKinney's notorious cardio issues and short-notice fight (27 days after his last fight). He thinks if Breeden survives the first round, he will take over. He recommends a small sprinkle on Breeden round 2 at long odds, or live betting after the first round.
James is leaning toward Breeden as a value play, noting McKinney is a round-one-or-bust fighter and is priced at -300. He thinks Breeden is tough with good cardio and could survive the early storm. James admits McKinney could get back on track but feels the odds are too high for such a volatile fighter. He might bet Breeden.
McKinney has cardio issues but is extremely powerful and athletic early. Breeden is coming off a long layoff and camp change. McKinney's under 1.5 rounds streak is 18 of 19 fights, so the under is a strong play. McKinney should get the TKO in the first round due to his speed and power.
Paul also likes Breeden as a live underdog or round 2/3 prop. He notes McKinney's cardio fades after the first round and that Breeden has shown good cardio in past fights, especially in the third round against Natan Levy. He thinks Breeden can survive the initial onslaught and take over later. He recommends a small bet on Breeden round 2 or 3.
The MMA Guru picks Terrance McKinney but is hesitant, acknowledging McKinney's cardio issues and tendency to gas after round one. He believes McKinney is the better fighter and should win by first-round KO if he fights aggressively, but warns that if the fight goes past round one, Breeden could take over. He suggests a live bet on Breeden if McKinney gasses.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natan Levy | 0 | 92 of 141 | 65% | 99 of 150 | 9 of 16 | 56% | 0 | 0 | 3:39 |
| Mike Breeden | 0 | 104 of 210 | 49% | 115 of 221 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 1:56 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Natan Levy | 0 | 25 of 41 | 60% | 26 of 42 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:39 |
| Mike Breeden | 0 | 19 of 45 | 42% | 20 of 46 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:40 | |
| 2 | Natan Levy | 0 | 21 of 27 | 77% | 27 of 35 | 7 of 8 | 87% | 0 | 0 | 2:40 |
| Mike Breeden | 0 | 23 of 45 | 51% | 24 of 46 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:46 | |
| 3 | Natan Levy | 0 | 46 of 73 | 63% | 46 of 73 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:20 |
| Mike Breeden | 0 | 62 of 120 | 51% | 71 of 129 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:30 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natan Levy | 92 of 141 | 65% | 68 of 115 | 19 of 21 | 5 of 5 | 80 of 124 | 4 of 8 | 8 of 9 |
| Mike Breeden | 104 of 210 | 49% | 64 of 158 | 39 of 51 | 1 of 1 | 89 of 185 | 13 of 22 | 2 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Natan Levy | 25 of 41 | 60% | 10 of 25 | 11 of 12 | 4 of 4 | 20 of 35 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 3 |
| Mike Breeden | 19 of 45 | 42% | 14 of 38 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 43 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Natan Levy | 21 of 27 | 77% | 17 of 23 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 6 |
| Mike Breeden | 23 of 45 | 51% | 12 of 32 | 11 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 19 of 40 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Natan Levy | 46 of 73 | 63% | 41 of 67 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 45 of 69 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Mike Breeden | 62 of 120 | 51% | 38 of 88 | 23 of 31 | 1 of 1 | 52 of 102 | 8 of 15 | 2 of 3 |
Angelo picks Natan Levy, but expresses doubts about his prospect status. He thinks Levy's relentless takedown attempts will get the fight to the ground and impress judges, but notes Levy gets too excited and ends up in bad scrambles. He says if Levy blows through Breeden, he may be wrong about him, but if he's sloppy, it's too soon for the UFC.
Big Brady picks Natan Levy, praising his well-rounded game, wrestling, top control, and cardio. He believes Levy can compete on the feet and take the fight to the mat if needed. He expects Levy to win a decision, as Breeden is not UFC caliber and has limited tools.
Cody agrees with Levy, noting Breeden's lack of offensive wrestling and poor striking defense. He thinks Levy's kicks and outside fighting will be effective, and that Levy's grappling looked improved in his last fight. Cody mentions Levy trains at Syndicate MMA with high-level partners, which should help. He doesn't see Breeden as a threat.
Daniel Levi picks Natan Levy but is not crazy about the -185 price. He likes Levy's karate style and grappling, and believes Breeden may not be UFC caliber. Levi sees Levy getting back on track but passes on betting due to lack of value.
The host picks Levy, citing his karate style and grappling. He notes Breeden's takedown defense is decent but Levy's leg kicks and wrestling will be effective. Levy's boxing is poor but he will use range and takedowns to control the fight. He expects Levy to win a decision, as Breeden is tough but not UFC caliber.
Paul picks Natan Levy, citing Breeden's poor performance against Alexander Hernandez and his susceptibility to leg kicks. He notes Levy's karate background and kicking game, and thinks Levy can stay on the outside and pick Breeden apart. Paul acknowledges Levy's greenness but believes he is improving and should be good enough to beat Breeden.
The Guru picks Natan Levy, noting his close loss to Rafael Alves was not bad and that he showed technical prowess in his UFC debut. He criticizes Mike Breeden for being a replacement who was knocked out by Alexander Hernandez. The Guru believes Levy is young and hungry, and that Breeden has lost every time he stepped up against decent opponents. He predicts Levy by decision 29-28.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Hernandez | 1 | 20 of 35 | 57% | 20 of 35 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Mike Breeden | 0 | 6 of 15 | 40% | 6 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexander Hernandez | 1 | 20 of 35 | 57% | 20 of 35 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Mike Breeden | 0 | 6 of 15 | 40% | 6 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Hernandez | 20 of 35 | 57% | 15 of 29 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 14 of 26 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| Mike Breeden | 6 of 15 | 40% | 4 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexander Hernandez | 20 of 35 | 57% | 15 of 29 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 14 of 26 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| Mike Breeden | 6 of 15 | 40% | 4 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
The five-fight main card starts with a catchweight affair, when “The Great” Hernandez (12-4, 4-3 UFC) comes to blows with “Money” Breeden (10-3, 0-0 UFC). The latter missed weight and therefore forfeited part of his money, but the fight is upon us and referee Mark Smith is as ready as we are for it to start. Hernandez is no interested in any glove touch, and instead comes out swinging. Both men throw hands quickly, with Hernandez breaking up a combination with a kick. Hernandez ducks through a few punches coming his way so he can take the fight down. When Breeden stuffs it, he gets rocked with an elbow over the top. Hernandez does not let him off the hook, connecting with a stern few punches and a heavy leg kick. Hernandez punches his way into a takedown try, and he goes after an elbow on the break again.
Hernandez rocks his opponent with a salvo of punches, and he pours it on with several more powerful strikes that eject Breeden’s mouthpiece. Hernandez continues to pour it on with a blistering barrage of battering blows, and a huge right hand sends Breeden crashing down to the canvas and forces Smith to intervene.
“The Great” wasted no time putting his short-notice foe out of there, earning a crushing knockout with style points.
The Official Result
Alexander Hernandez def. Mike Breeden R1 1:20 via KO (Punches)
Angelo picks Alexander Hernandez, expecting him to dominate a short-notice UFC debutant. He notes that Hernandez has legitimate power, speed, and wrestling, and has fought higher competition. Breeden is a high-volume striker but lacks the power and wrestling of Hernandez. Angelo thinks the odds are a bit wide due to Hernandez's inconsistency, but he should win and dominate. He likes the more more monkey knife fight pick and may consider Hernandez in DraftKings despite the $9,400 price tag.
Big Brady picks Alexander Hernandez to win by first-round knockout, despite not being high on Hernandez generally. He notes Breeden is stepping in on short notice and is not UFC caliber yet, being 32 but still green. Hernandez has fought much better competition (Moises, Dober, Cerrone) and has impressive knockouts over Chris Gruetzemacher and Vanilto Antunes. Brady expects Hernandez to dominate and finish Breeden inside the distance, likely in the first round.
Cody picks Hernandez but with low confidence due to Hernandez's poor fight IQ and cardio. He notes that Hernandez should win on paper but has a history of underperforming. Breeden is tough and has good cardio, which could be a problem if Hernandez doesn't finish early. He expects Hernandez to win but wouldn't start a parlay with him.
Daniel Levi picks Alexander Hernandez, stating he is much more battle-tested than the newcomer Breeden. He criticizes Hernandez's tendency to fade when fights get tough but believes Breeden is not at that level. Levi notes Breeden is durable (only one KO loss) but expects Hernandez to win, though he is unsure of the method—could be a first-round finish or a grind. He does not recommend laying -600 but is confident in the win.
I think this is a mismatch. Breeden is a regional-level fighter who is outclassed athletically and technically. Hernandez is faster, hits harder, and is more well-rounded. I like Hernandez by KO at +150 because he should be able to finish Breeden early. The moneyline is too expensive for me to lay, but the KO prop has value.
Paul also picks Hernandez but is wary of his mental fragility and poor cardio. He notes that Breeden is dangerous in the third round and that Hernandez has a history of fading. He thinks Hernandez should win but wouldn't bet him at -525.
The MMA Guru picks Alexander Hernandez by first-round KO, noting that Mike Breeden has been KO'd before and has faced weak competition. Hernandez has KO power, as seen against Chris Gruetzemacher. He believes Hernandez will thrive with no pressure and get a signature win.
Expert Picks (7)
Angelo picks McKinney but with low confidence due to cardio concerns and the short-notice turnaround. He notes McKinney has solid wrestling and BJJ but gasses and has a questionable chin. He is staying away from the -400 odds but suggests prop bets like McKinney winning the first round or getting more takedowns.
Big Brady picks Terrance McKinney to win by knockout early in the first round, likely within 60 seconds. He notes McKinney's dangerous striking and wrestling but acknowledges his poor cardio and short-notice fight. He believes McKinney will finish Breeden quickly, as Breeden has awful takedown defense and has been finished before. However, he cautions that if McKinney doesn't finish in the first round, he is likely to lose.
Cody picks Breeden by second-round finish as a prop bet, not on the moneyline. He notes McKinney's notorious cardio issues and short-notice fight (27 days after his last fight). He thinks if Breeden survives the first round, he will take over. He recommends a small sprinkle on Breeden round 2 at long odds, or live betting after the first round.
James is leaning toward Breeden as a value play, noting McKinney is a round-one-or-bust fighter and is priced at -300. He thinks Breeden is tough with good cardio and could survive the early storm. James admits McKinney could get back on track but feels the odds are too high for such a volatile fighter. He might bet Breeden.
McKinney has cardio issues but is extremely powerful and athletic early. Breeden is coming off a long layoff and camp change. McKinney's under 1.5 rounds streak is 18 of 19 fights, so the under is a strong play. McKinney should get the TKO in the first round due to his speed and power.
Paul also likes Breeden as a live underdog or round 2/3 prop. He notes McKinney's cardio fades after the first round and that Breeden has shown good cardio in past fights, especially in the third round against Natan Levy. He thinks Breeden can survive the initial onslaught and take over later. He recommends a small bet on Breeden round 2 or 3.
The MMA Guru picks Terrance McKinney but is hesitant, acknowledging McKinney's cardio issues and tendency to gas after round one. He believes McKinney is the better fighter and should win by first-round KO if he fights aggressively, but warns that if the fight goes past round one, Breeden could take over. He suggests a live bet on Breeden if McKinney gasses.
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