UFC on ESPN: Luque vs. dos Anjos · Aug 12, 2023 · Lightweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC on ESPN: Luque vs. dos Anjos Next Fight
Age 31
Height 5' 10"
Reach 73.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Switch
Age 37
Height 5' 10"
Reach 70.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Terrance McKinney
6.53 SLpM
55.0% Str. Acc.
3.45 SApM
43.0% Str. Def.
3.31 TD Avg
40.0% TD Acc.
72.0% TD Def.
2.1 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Mike Breeden
5.75 SLpM
45.0% Str. Acc.
7.28 SApM
42.0% Str. Def.
0.98 TD Avg
30.0% TD Acc.
67.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Terrance McKinney
Moneyline
FanDuel -270
KO/TKO
BetRivers +188
Submission
BetRivers +175
Decision
FanDuel +1300
Mike Breeden
Moneyline
Caesars +235
KO/TKO
BetWay +400
Submission
FanDuel +1600
Decision
BetRivers +1100
Terrance McKinney - Fight History
WIN vs Kyle Nelson
KO R1 0:24 · UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · Mar 28, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Terrance McKinney 0 13 of 27 48% 15 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
Kyle Nelson 0 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Terrance McKinney 0 13 of 27 48% 15 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
Kyle Nelson 0 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Terrance McKinney 13 of 27 48% 12 of 26 1 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 5 0 of 0 8 of 22
Kyle Nelson 1 of 3 33% 0 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Terrance McKinney 13 of 27 48% 12 of 26 1 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 5 0 of 0 8 of 22
Kyle Nelson 1 of 3 33% 0 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 22, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

Angelo picks Terrance McKinney despite acknowledging his cardio and chin issues. He believes McKinney is the better striker, wrestler, and more powerful, and hopes he puts on a show at home. He admits he went against his own rule of not betting on McKinney and placed a half-unit bet at -141.

Half a unit at -141
"Half a unit minus 141, Terrance McKinney's the pick."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 23, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

Big Brady picks Terrance McKinney to win by first-round knockout. He expects a car crash of a fight, noting both fighters lack durability and have been finished often. He believes McKinney's early pressure and power will be too much for Kyle Nelson, who has been finished in four losses. He thinks McKinney will knock him out in the first few minutes.

McKinney by KO round 1
"I think McKinney's going to knock him out in the very first round."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 25, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Kyle Nelson

Cody picks Nelson, believing McKinney's early explosiveness will fade and Nelson's durability and cardio will take over. He also mentions inside information from Nelson's training partner.

"Kyle Nelson for me, brother."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 26, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Kyle Nelson

Connor picks Nelson, noting that McKinney is only dangerous in the first round and concedes when he can't get an immediate finish. He points out that McKinney has only won one fight outside the first three minutes in his entire career. Nelson is susceptible early but if he survives, McKinney gives up. Connor says you can't pick a competent fighter to lose to McKinney.

Odds: Nelson opened +150, now +145; McKinney opened -175, now -170. Connor says he can't imagine betting on McKinney.
"You got to pick Kyle Nelson."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Mar 24, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

Daniel acknowledges McKinney's first-round finishing ability but is wary of his tendency to fade if he doesn't get the early KO. He picks McKinney but suggests live betting Nelson if the fight goes past two minutes.

"A pure pick, I'm going with McKinney, man. I'd like to see McKinney get back on track and just get Nelson out of there with a serious onslaught in round one."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert picked Mar 28, 2026 (fight day)

The host sees this as a coin flip: McKinney is explosive and dangerous early but has terrible cardio and has never been to a decision; Nelson is slow and hittable but has power and can survive the first round. The implied probabilities (65-40) offer no margin on either side, so the host passes entirely.

"You'd be crazy to back McKinney with how reckless he is and how bad his cardio is. But, with how dangerous McKinney is early and how stiff and slow Nelson is, I think you'd be crazy to back Nelson as …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 24, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

The host expects McKinney's explosive power and early aggression to overwhelm Nelson, leading to a first-round knockout. He notes McKinney's tendency to finish early and that all his UFC fights have ended under 1.5 rounds. He is less confident in betting McKinney straight due to his style's volatility but likes the under 1.5 rounds prop.

under 1.5 rounds
"I'm going to go McKenna. I'm not I don't want to bet him at shock just because I know what kind of style he has... but the under one and a half is definitely the spot even at shock to …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 25, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Kyle Nelson

Paul agrees, noting McKinney's history of gassing and Nelson's ability to survive early storms. He expects Nelson to win after the first round.

"Kyle Nelson is the side for me."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 27, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Kyle Nelson

The MMA Guru picks Kyle Nelson using reverse psychology, as he often picks McKinney to win by first-round TKO but McKinney fumbles. He believes McKinney will wobble Nelson early but then fade, allowing Nelson to take over in the second and third rounds with elbows and pressure. He notes McKinney's inconsistency.

"Reverse psychology. I'm going with Kyle Nelson, dude."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 26, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Kyle Nelson

Zane agrees, stating that McKinney's pattern is clear: he comes in keyed up and if he doesn't finish early, he gives up. He compares McKinney to the ID of fighters like McGregor and Pyfer. Nelson is a competent fighter who can survive the early storm. Zane notes that Nelson could lose if he gets caught early, but otherwise McKinney has no answer.

Odds: Nelson opened +150, now +145; McKinney opened -175, now -170.
"Can't pick a single competent fighter to lose to McKinney."
LOSS vs Chris Duncan
Submission R1 2:30 · UFC 323 · Dec 06, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Terrance McKinney 0 31 of 57 54% 31 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Chris Duncan 1 38 of 55 69% 53 of 75 1 of 2 50% 1 0 1:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Terrance McKinney 0 31 of 57 54% 31 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Chris Duncan 1 38 of 55 69% 53 of 75 1 of 2 50% 1 0 1:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Terrance McKinney 31 of 57 54% 26 of 50 5 of 7 0 of 0 24 of 45 6 of 11 1 of 1
Chris Duncan 38 of 55 69% 36 of 51 2 of 3 0 of 1 10 of 20 6 of 8 22 of 27
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Terrance McKinney 31 of 57 54% 26 of 50 5 of 7 0 of 0 24 of 45 6 of 11 1 of 1
Chris Duncan 38 of 55 69% 36 of 51 2 of 3 0 of 1 10 of 20 6 of 8 22 of 27
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Nov 30, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

Angelo picks Terrance McKinney despite acknowledging his poor durability and cardio. He believes McKinney is incredibly dangerous early and can get the fight to the ground to find a finish. He notes that Chris Duncan is extremely durable and often comes back from being hurt, but Angelo thinks McKinney's early explosiveness will be enough. He advises against betting due to the high risk.

"I'm going to pick Terence McKini. Don't do anything with that information. These odds aren't good enough to bet on him."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 26, 2025 (10 days before fight)
Chris Duncan

Big Brady picks Chris Duncan, noting McKinney's tendency to fade after early bursts and his seven career finishes. He highlights Duncan's improved ground game and chin, and expects Duncan to weather the early storm and knock out McKinney late in the first round.

Duncan by first round knockout
"I'm going to say Duncan weathers the early storm and knocks out Terrence McKenna in very brutal fashion late in the first round."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Dec 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

Cody leans toward McKinney, citing his explosive start and finishing ability. He notes that McKinney's fights are usually over in the first round and that Duncan has shown a questionable chin. He mentions that if McKinney doesn't finish early, Duncan's cardio advantage could come into play, but he trusts McKinney's early burst.

"I'm gonna go with the Terrence McKenna side. Uh, but I will say with the caveat of um I feel like a Duncan round two prop at like plus 450 plus plus 600's out there."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Chris Duncan

Connor picks Chris Duncan, noting that Duncan has improved significantly at ATT, developing a calm, consistent striking game with good shot selection and power. He contrasts McKinney's all-gas-no-brakes style that fades after two minutes, and believes Duncan has the answers to McKinney's early blitz.

"I have to prick Chris Duncan the way, especially the way Chris Duncan is now. Like that's what I was going to say. Chris Duncan, I think has really gotten a lot better in a pretty short period of time."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 27, 2025 (9 days before fight)
Chris Duncan

Daniel picks Duncan, reasoning that if he survives McKinney's first-round onslaught, he will take over. He notes McKinney has never been past the first round and fades, while Duncan has shown durability and finishing ability. He sees Duncan winning by knockout or submission in later rounds.

"I am going to pick Chris Duncan. There's obviously a chance he gets finished in the first, but if he doesn't, he's got multiple avenues to victory."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 29, 2025 (7 days before fight)
Chris Duncan

Lucrative James acknowledges his bias as a friend of Chris Duncan but provides detailed reasoning. He believes McKinney's only chance is an early finish, while Duncan's physicality, cardio, and improving grappling defense will carry him through. He notes Duncan's training with Grant Dawson and focus on back-take defense. He predicts Duncan wins inside the distance, likely by KO.

Chris Duncan inside the distance
"I got Chris all day here, boys."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Chris Duncan

The host acknowledges the recent love for McKinney but expects Duncan to take advantage of McKinney's overaggressive style and find a finish within one and a half rounds.

finish within 1.5 rounds
"I think that we'll see Duncan eventually take advantage of McKenny's overaggressive style and find that finish under one and a half rounds."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Chris Duncan

Paul picks Duncan, emphasizing his multiple paths to victory. He notes that McKinney's win condition is a first-round finish, while Duncan has power, a guillotine choke, and cardio. He mentions that Duncan trains at American Top Team and has prepared for McKinney's wrestling. He believes if McKinney doesn't finish early, Duncan will take over.

"I'm going to actually go with Chris Duncan in this spot. Just he's got more ways to win."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

The Guru picks Terrance McKinney despite acknowledging Duncan may be the better fighter. He believes McKinney's speed and first-round explosiveness will catch Duncan, who is hittable early. The Guru predicts a first-round TKO, possibly in the first minute.

first round TKO
"I'm going to go with Terrence McKini getting this one done by TKO in the first round over Chris Duncan."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Chris Duncan

Zane picks Chris Duncan, emphasizing that McKinney has never won a UFC fight outside the first two minutes and loses when his initial blitz fails. He notes Duncan's improved striking and power, and believes Duncan can weather the early storm and take over. Zane thinks the odds should be wider in Duncan's favor.

Duncan should be a bigger favorite
"I think Duncan could, that should actually be a bunch bigger favorite. Frankly."
Submission R1 0:55 · UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · Jun 28, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Terrance McKinney 0 1 of 2 50% 1 of 2 1 of 1 100% 2 0 0:47
Viacheslav Borshchev 0 2 of 2 100% 2 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Terrance McKinney 0 1 of 2 50% 1 of 2 1 of 1 100% 2 0 0:47
Viacheslav Borshchev 0 2 of 2 100% 2 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Terrance McKinney 1 of 2 50% 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 2
Viacheslav Borshchev 2 of 2 100% 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Terrance McKinney 1 of 2 50% 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 2
Viacheslav Borshchev 2 of 2 100% 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jun 22, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

Angelo picks Terrance McKinney because he believes McKinney's early explosiveness will overwhelm Viacheslav Borshchev, who is older and may not be as durable as before. He notes that McKinney is reliable in that he either finishes early or loses, and he thinks McKinney will come out like a bat out of hell and get the job done. However, he admits he is picking against Borshchev more than for McKinney, and he will monitor the odds for a good betting spot.

Angelo says he will keep an eye on the odds and use his line movement tracker to find a good entry point.
"I am going to go Terrance McKinney. Viacheslav is 33 years old. He is 55 years old in fight years."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jun 21, 2025 (7 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

Big Brady acknowledges McKinney is the rightful favorite due to his wrestling and power, but he is hesitant because both fighters have questionable durability. He notes Borshchev has terrible takedown defense and was dropped by Chase Hooper, but McKinney's cardio is atrocious and his durability is also suspect. Brady thinks McKinney will land first and win by first-round knockout, but if it leaves the first round, McKinney is in trouble.

McKinney wins by first round knockout
"Give me Terence McKenna to win by first round knockout. But he's so untrustworthy."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Viacheslav Borshchev

The host notes McKinney's tendency for early finishes, but picks Borshchev to fend off the early grappling and get a TKO finish by the end of the first or early second round.

under 1.5 rounds, TKO finish
"I think it's going to be Borchev who ends up fending off the early grappling threat of McKenna and then eventually pulverizes him by the ending of the first round or early second round to get that TKO finish."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Jun 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

The host picks Terrance McKinney, citing his underrated grappling as the X-factor. He notes that Borshchev has shown weaknesses in grappling, as seen in his losses to Chase Hooper and others. However, he acknowledges McKinney's tendency to get knocked out spectacularly and sees the fight as a 50/50 on the feet. He believes McKinney will use his wrestling to secure a win.

"I'm going with Terrence McKini here. Um I I think Terrence McKini is uh is good enough to beat Vishlav Borchev."
KO R1 2:01 · UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Imavov · Feb 01, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Terrance McKinney 0 54 of 69 78% 69 of 90 0 of 0 --- 1 1 1:00
Damir Hadžović 0 4 of 13 30% 4 of 13 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:08
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Terrance McKinney 0 54 of 69 78% 69 of 90 0 of 0 --- 1 1 1:00
Damir Hadžović 0 4 of 13 30% 4 of 13 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:08
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Terrance McKinney 54 of 69 78% 53 of 67 1 of 2 0 of 0 8 of 18 0 of 0 46 of 51
Damir Hadžović 4 of 13 30% 3 of 9 0 of 3 1 of 1 4 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Terrance McKinney 54 of 69 78% 53 of 67 1 of 2 0 of 0 8 of 18 0 of 0 46 of 51
Damir Hadžović 4 of 13 30% 3 of 9 0 of 3 1 of 1 4 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 26, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

Angelo picks Terrance McKinney despite his unreliability, citing his superior talent, wrestling, and striking. He notes that Damir Hadžović is older (38) and not as dangerous. He worries about McKinney's cardio and chin but believes he should win early. He suggests looking at round props rather than betting the moneyline at -335.

Suggests looking at round line (under 1.5) and prop bets.
"Terence mckin should win I'm picking Terence mckin to win I'm hoping these odds Titan though betting on Terence mckin at minus 335 is the the plot of a nightmare"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 27, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

Big Brady sees this as an easy matchup for Terrance McKinney, who has great wrestling and BJJ. Damir Hadžović has the worst takedown defense in the UFC and has been submitted before. Brady thinks McKinney will take him down and submit him in the first round, though he notes McKinney has terrible cardio if the fight extends. He predicts a first-round submission.

first round submission
"I'm going Terence mckenny to win this fight by first round sub if he gets out of the first round um it could very well be bad but I just don't see hadzovic lasting five minutes"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

McKinney has a massive grappling advantage and will look to get the fight to the ground immediately. He is expected to take the back and secure a first-round submission, as he has done in all nine of his UFC fights. The fight is predicted to go under 1.5 rounds.

under 1.5 rounds
"McKenna should have a tremendous his grappling Advantage here and I'd be surprised if he does not look to get this fight to the ground almost immediately from there I expect him to go to the back get that first …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 28, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

The MMA Guru picks Terrance McKinney to win by TKO in the first round. He believes McKinney has finishing potential while Hadžović does not, and that Hadžović is past his prime and likely to be decisioned. He notes McKinney's losses are brutal but expects him to get the job done here.

first round finish
"I'm going to go with Terrence mckin getting it done TKO first round I say first round finish for Terrence mckin"
KO (head kick) R1 0:37 · UFC on ESPN: Lewis vs. Nascimento · May 11, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Esteban Ribovics 0 5 of 18 27% 5 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Terrance McKinney 1 5 of 12 41% 5 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Esteban Ribovics 0 5 of 18 27% 5 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Terrance McKinney 1 5 of 12 41% 5 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Esteban Ribovics 5 of 18 27% 3 of 16 2 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 16 2 of 2 0 of 0
Terrance McKinney 5 of 12 41% 3 of 8 1 of 2 1 of 2 4 of 10 1 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Esteban Ribovics 5 of 18 27% 3 of 16 2 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 16 2 of 2 0 of 0
Terrance McKinney 5 of 12 41% 3 of 8 1 of 2 1 of 2 4 of 10 1 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked May 5, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Angelo picks Esteban Ribovics as the more durable and dependable fighter, despite Terrance McKinney's raw talent and explosiveness. He notes Ribovics has been taken down 14 times in his last five fights, but McKinney has been finished in every loss. He acknowledges the fight is close to 50/50 and that McKinney could win if he lands early.

"I got to go with the more durable guy here I have to go with the more dependable guy"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 8, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Big Brady picks Esteban Ribovics to survive McKinney's early storm and finish him in the late first or second round by knockout. He notes McKinney has never won a UFC fight past the first round and tends to gas if he doesn't finish early. Ribovics has durability, cardio, heart, and finishing ability. He expects McKinney to try wrestling, but if he doesn't finish, he will fade and get finished himself.

"I'm going to take riix to uh survive an early storm here get taken down get back up make McKenna work and I think he's going to push a pace here and finish M McKenna in the the late first …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 7, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Cody picks Ribovics, noting that McKinney is a 'glass cannon' who gasses after the first round. He expects McKinney to come out fast and possibly take Ribovics down early, but Ribovics has shown he can survive and come back. Cody likes the under 1.5 rounds prop as parlay fodder, as McKinney fights are usually short. He suggests live betting Ribovics if McKinney wins the first round.

Under 1.5 rounds (-220) parlayed with other unders; live betting Ribovics
"I think ribovich is a better live bet and I suppose yeah the the under one and a half is decent uh decent parlay fodder"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 9, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Daniel Vreeland picks Esteban Ribovics, noting that McKinney is dangerous in the first round but fades if he doesn't get the finish. He believes Ribovics can survive the early onslaught and take over late, getting a finish. He mentions Ribovics' ability to get back to his feet and his late-round power.

late finish
"I think estaban takes over late and gets a late finish."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 7, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

The host expects McKinney's early explosiveness to overwhelm Ribovics, likely via knockout in round 1. He notes McKinney's tendency to gas but believes Ribovics' takedown defense issues will be exploited. He strongly recommends the under 1.5 rounds as a must-play, and also likes McKinney round 1 prop. The pick is confident for the early finish, though he acknowledges the risk if McKinney fails.

Under 1.5 rounds is a must play; McKinney round 1 prop
"give me uh mckenny round one but the under one and a half is a must play especially in Terence McKenna fights"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 7, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Paul picks Ribovics, agreeing that McKinney is a first-round specialist who fades. He notes that Ribovics has a strong chin and cardio, and can take McKinney's best shots. Paul expects Ribovics to survive the early storm and take over in the second round. He also likes the under 1.5 rounds prop due to McKinney's tendency to finish or get finished quickly.

Under 1.5 rounds
"I expect ribovich eventually to Prevail and mckin to gas out and then probably get finished either late in the first round or early in the second round"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 7, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

The MMA Guru picks Terrance McKinney as an underdog over Esteban Ribovics. He notes that McKinney has a wrestling background he doesn't always use but can rely on, and that Ribovics is hook-heavy with a reach disadvantage. He references Ribovics' fight with Kamuela Kirk where Kirk took him down and controlled him, suggesting McKinney can do the same. He also trusts McKinney's cardio and power on the feet.

"I'm gonna go with Terren mckin who is an underdog here... I think he has the advantage in the grappling over esam ribovich."
TKO (knee and punches) R1 0:20 · UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Barboza · Oct 14, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Terrance McKinney 1 14 of 21 66% 14 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Brendon Marotte 0 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Terrance McKinney 1 14 of 21 66% 14 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Brendon Marotte 0 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Terrance McKinney 14 of 21 66% 14 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 1 of 1 13 of 19
Brendon Marotte 1 of 1 100% 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Terrance McKinney 14 of 21 66% 14 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 1 of 1 13 of 19
Brendon Marotte 1 of 1 100% 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

Big Brady picks Terrance McKinney to win by first-round submission. He notes McKinney is dangerous early with power and wrestling, while Marotte is a big step up in competition and may not survive the first round. He warns that if Marotte survives, he could win, but expects McKinney to get it done quickly.

McKinney by submission in round 1
"going be Terence mckenny to win this fight by first round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

Cody picks McKinney, emphasizing that Marotte is a huge underdog with no recent fights and a shaky defense. He notes that McKinney's pressure and power are likely to overwhelm Marotte early. Cody suggests that if Marotte survives the first round, he could be live, but he doubts that will happen.

"McKinney is the pick"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 12, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

The host picks Terrance McKinney by round one, noting his explosive power and fast starts. He highlights that 19 of 20 McKinney fights finished under 1.5 rounds. However, he warns against the moneyline due to cardio issues and suggests taking McKinney round one or under 1.5 rounds.

McKinney round one; under 1.5 rounds
"I'll take mckenny mckenny round one but nothing to do with that minus 600 money line cardio way too question able"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

Paul picks McKinney, noting his explosive first-round power and the fact that Marotte has no recent tape and is stepping in on short notice. He acknowledges McKinney's cardio issues but believes Marotte is not durable enough to survive the first round. Paul suggests betting McKinney round 1 or Marotte round 2 as value plays.

McKinney round 1 or Marotte round 2
"McKinney all day"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 10, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

The MMA Guru picks Terrance McKinney to win by TKO over Brendan Marotte. He dismisses Marotte as an awful regional fighter who beat an 11-20 opponent and went to a split decision with an 8-4 fighter. He notes Marotte trains at New England Cartel but lacks quality wins. He believes McKinney has a speed advantage and won't be outgrappled, and that Marotte's short notice and lack of durability will lead to a finish.

TKO
"I'm going to have to go with teren mckin getting this one done by TKO another can for mckin"
WIN vs Mike Breeden
TKO (punches) R1 1:25 · UFC on ESPN: Luque vs. dos Anjos · Aug 12, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Terrance McKinney 0 30 of 47 63% 30 of 47 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:03
Mike Breeden 0 1 of 5 20% 1 of 5 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Terrance McKinney 0 30 of 47 63% 30 of 47 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:03
Mike Breeden 0 1 of 5 20% 1 of 5 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Terrance McKinney 30 of 47 63% 23 of 36 7 of 11 0 of 0 16 of 30 11 of 14 3 of 3
Mike Breeden 1 of 5 20% 0 of 4 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Terrance McKinney 30 of 47 63% 23 of 36 7 of 11 0 of 0 16 of 30 11 of 14 3 of 3
Mike Breeden 1 of 5 20% 0 of 4 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Aug 6, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

Angelo picks McKinney but with low confidence due to cardio concerns and the short-notice turnaround. He notes McKinney has solid wrestling and BJJ but gasses and has a questionable chin. He is staying away from the -400 odds but suggests prop bets like McKinney winning the first round or getting more takedowns.

McKinney to get more takedowns (if under -300), McKinney to win first round
"Terrence McKinney's still going to be the pick but low confidence and I'm staying far far away from these four to one odds"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

Big Brady picks Terrance McKinney to win by knockout early in the first round, likely within 60 seconds. He notes McKinney's dangerous striking and wrestling but acknowledges his poor cardio and short-notice fight. He believes McKinney will finish Breeden quickly, as Breeden has awful takedown defense and has been finished before. However, he cautions that if McKinney doesn't finish in the first round, he is likely to lose.

knockout early in the first round, within 60 seconds
"I will take Terence McKinney to knock out Mike Breeden um within 60 seconds like I think 60 seconds is is very much in play here for Terence McKinney"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Aug 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Mike Breeden

Cody picks Breeden by second-round finish as a prop bet, not on the moneyline. He notes McKinney's notorious cardio issues and short-notice fight (27 days after his last fight). He thinks if Breeden survives the first round, he will take over. He recommends a small sprinkle on Breeden round 2 at long odds, or live betting after the first round.

Breeden round 2 at +1200; also mentions Breeden round 3 at +2100; suggests live betting Breeden after round 1
"breed in round two is a you know throw a little sprinkle and uh and hope for the best type of play of the week"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Aug 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Mike Breeden

James is leaning toward Breeden as a value play, noting McKinney is a round-one-or-bust fighter and is priced at -300. He thinks Breeden is tough with good cardio and could survive the early storm. James admits McKinney could get back on track but feels the odds are too high for such a volatile fighter. He might bet Breeden.

James suggests if betting McKinney, play his KO or submission prop instead of moneyline.
"I'll always fade Terence at minus 300 for the most part against anybody with a pulse."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 10, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

McKinney has cardio issues but is extremely powerful and athletic early. Breeden is coming off a long layoff and camp change. McKinney's under 1.5 rounds streak is 18 of 19 fights, so the under is a strong play. McKinney should get the TKO in the first round due to his speed and power.

under 1.5 rounds (-290), McKinney by TKO in round 1
"I'm gonna go with McKinney here as I think he's too athletic and too powerful for Breeden to deal with early and I think that will allow him to get the TKO victory in the first round"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Aug 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Mike Breeden

Paul also likes Breeden as a live underdog or round 2/3 prop. He notes McKinney's cardio fades after the first round and that Breeden has shown good cardio in past fights, especially in the third round against Natan Levy. He thinks Breeden can survive the initial onslaught and take over later. He recommends a small bet on Breeden round 2 or 3.

Breeden round 2 at +1200; Breeden round 3 at +2100; suggests live betting
"I will be playing the breeding round two pro because five minute fighter bro"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Aug 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

The MMA Guru picks Terrance McKinney but is hesitant, acknowledging McKinney's cardio issues and tendency to gas after round one. He believes McKinney is the better fighter and should win by first-round KO if he fights aggressively, but warns that if the fight goes past round one, Breeden could take over. He suggests a live bet on Breeden if McKinney gasses.

Live bet on Mike Breeden if McKinney gasses after round one
"I'm gonna go Terence McKinney yeah uh but he could lose again because Mike breeden's not some joke"
LOSS vs Nazim Sadykhov
Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 1:07 · UFC on ESPN: Holm vs. Bueno Silva · Jul 15, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nazim Sadykhov 0 8 of 15 53% 20 of 27 0 of 0 --- 1 1 0:55
Terrance McKinney 0 6 of 14 42% 21 of 34 2 of 5 40% 0 0 4:16
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nazim Sadykhov 0 5 of 8 62% 16 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:20
Terrance McKinney 0 5 of 8 62% 20 of 28 2 of 3 66% 0 0 4:12
2 Nazim Sadykhov 0 3 of 7 42% 4 of 8 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:35
Terrance McKinney 0 1 of 6 16% 1 of 6 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nazim Sadykhov 8 of 15 53% 6 of 11 0 of 1 2 of 3 6 of 13 0 of 0 2 of 2
Terrance McKinney 6 of 14 42% 3 of 10 3 of 3 0 of 1 4 of 12 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nazim Sadykhov 5 of 8 62% 4 of 7 0 of 0 1 of 1 3 of 6 0 of 0 2 of 2
Terrance McKinney 5 of 8 62% 2 of 5 3 of 3 0 of 0 3 of 6 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Nazim Sadykhov 3 of 7 42% 2 of 4 0 of 1 1 of 2 3 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Terrance McKinney 1 of 6 16% 1 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 1 1 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Jul 9, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

Angelo gives a slight lean to Terrance McKinney, calling it a 50.5 to 49.5 pick in his favor. He thinks McKinney is the better fighter overall, with solid striking and wrestling credentials, but his chin is questionable. He is swayed by a conversation with McKinney's coach about improved training partners. However, he hesitates because McKinney was recently knocked out and Sadykhov carries power late. He would only bet if the line moves to make McKinney a bigger underdog.

"I'm gonna give the slightest lean towards Terence McKinney because I do think he's the better fighter all in all but when I say slightest lean like 50 50 means there's no pick I'm going 49 and a half to …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 13, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

Big Brady picks Terrance McKinney, expecting him to revert to his aggressive style and finish Sadykhov early. He notes Sadykhov is a slow starter who has been hurt early in fights, which plays into McKinney's strengths. However, he warns that if McKinney doesn't finish in the first few minutes, his poor cardio will be a problem. He calls it a great live betting spot if Sadykhov survives the first round.

First round knockout; great live betting spot if Sadykhov survives first half of round
"I'm gonna say McKenney knocks out satikov in the first round great live betting spot if Santa Claus survives the first half of a round probably live at him here because I just don't think McKinney has more than a …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jul 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

Cody picks McKinney at plus money, citing his explosiveness, power, and wrestling advantage. He thinks McKinney will go back to his aggressive style after pacing himself poorly against Bomfim. He notes Sadykhov's takedown defense issues and that McKinney has speed and power advantages. He acknowledges McKinney's cardio is a concern but thinks he can finish early.

under 1.5 rounds
"I gotta go with Terence McKinney... he's likely gonna go for it and he's got an ability to potentially knock out or submit most guys in this division very early"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

The host highlights McKinney's 17 of 18 fights finishing under 1.5 rounds and 15 first-round finishes. He thinks Sadykhov is hittable and lacks durability, and McKinney's explosivity and power will be too much. He picks McKinney to win in round one, either by KO or submission.

McKinney wins in round 1; under 1.5 rounds
"give me round one McKinney I'm gonna just go round one McKinney you know I mean he can pull off the sub where he can pull off The Knockout I think he's capable of both but I'm gonna go round …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Nazim Sadykhov

Paul picks Sadykhov, citing his ability to fight 15 full minutes and survive early pressure. He notes McKinney's cardio fades after 5-6 minutes and that Sadykhov can take damage and come back. He mentions Sadykhov's cut stoppage win over Elder was competitive, not one-sided. He thinks a live bet on Sadykhov after the first round is a good strategy.

live bet on Sadykhov after first round
"I got a side with them at minus 135... buyer beware he was down two rounds on all all judges scorecards against Evan Elder and then the you know Landing Landing a perfect what elbow to to cut open Elder"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

The MMA Guru picks Terrance McKinney over Nazim Sadykhov, citing McKinney's KO power and ability to catch opponents, as seen against Matt Frevola. He worries about McKinney's KO loss but notes his youth and six-month layoff. He sees Sadykhov as a forward-momentum scrapper who could run into a big shot, predicting a McKinney KO.

"I'm gonna go with Terence McKinney here I I do worry that maybe he'll be exposed again but I'm gonna have to go with him to win this one"
Mike Breeden - Fight History
WIN vs Anshul Jubli
KO (punches) R3 3:00 · UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · Oct 21, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mike Breeden 1 92 of 177 51% 94 of 181 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:04
Anshul Jubli 0 103 of 194 53% 104 of 195 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mike Breeden 0 29 of 51 56% 29 of 51 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Anshul Jubli 0 44 of 88 50% 44 of 88 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Mike Breeden 0 29 of 68 42% 31 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Anshul Jubli 0 48 of 84 57% 49 of 85 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:05
3 Mike Breeden 1 34 of 58 58% 34 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Anshul Jubli 0 11 of 22 50% 11 of 22 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mike Breeden 92 of 177 51% 75 of 157 11 of 13 6 of 7 89 of 174 2 of 2 1 of 1
Anshul Jubli 103 of 194 53% 63 of 145 27 of 36 13 of 13 97 of 181 6 of 13 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mike Breeden 29 of 51 56% 21 of 41 4 of 5 4 of 5 28 of 50 1 of 1 0 of 0
Anshul Jubli 44 of 88 50% 23 of 62 14 of 19 7 of 7 40 of 81 4 of 7 0 of 0
2 Mike Breeden 29 of 68 42% 23 of 61 4 of 5 2 of 2 28 of 67 1 of 1 0 of 0
Anshul Jubli 48 of 84 57% 33 of 66 11 of 14 4 of 4 46 of 78 2 of 6 0 of 0
3 Mike Breeden 34 of 58 58% 31 of 55 3 of 3 0 of 0 33 of 57 0 of 0 1 of 1
Anshul Jubli 11 of 22 50% 7 of 17 2 of 3 2 of 2 11 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 15, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Anshul Jubli

Angelo picks Anshul Jubli but thinks he is not a -400 fighter. He notes Breeden's poor takedown defense (taken down 9 times by Natan Levy) and good get-up game, but expects Jubli's constant pressure and takedowns to be too much. He is confident in Jubli winning but may not bet at those odds.

odds comment: not worth -400
"I don't think uni Jubilee is a minus 400 fighter"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Anshul Jubli

Big Brady picks Anshul Jubli to win by third round TKO. He notes that Mike Breeden is 0-3 in the UFC with two first-minute losses, while Jubli is a Road to UFC winner who impressed in his debut against Jack Cartwright. Brady likes Jubli's wrestling, control, and ground-and-pound, and expects him to break Breeden as the fight goes on. He also likes the prop of Jubli over 1.5 takedowns on PrizePicks.

third round TKO, over 1.5 takedowns
"I think he finishes Mike Breeden in the third round so give me a anrew jubilee to win this fight I'll say it's a third round TKO"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Mike Breeden

Cody picks Breeden, echoing that Jubli's competition is weak and that Breeden has fought better fighters. He notes that Breeden has shown he can go the distance and outwork opponents, while Jubli has not proven his cardio or chin. Cody expects Breeden to win a decision or late finish.

"Breeden is the pick all right"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 19, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Anshul Jubli

Daniel picks Anshul Jubli to win, arguing that Mike Breeden is a journeyman ranked 233rd in the world and has been knocked out by low-level fighters. He believes Jubli is a legitimate prospect who can use his physicality to win, though he admits Jubli is green and will eventually be faded. He thinks this is a winnable fight for Jubli and that Breeden is not the guy to expose him.

Jubli minus 270, Breeden plus 230; mentions that Jubli is a prospect and Breeden is a journeyman
"I think Jubilee wins this fight and we're gonna get a great opportunity to fade him and I look forward to that very much just not this weekend."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2023 (fight day)
Mike Breeden

James had a 3-unit bet on Mike Breeden moneyline at +235 and a quarter-unit bet on Breeden to win in round three at +2000. He noted that Breeden lost the first round but was still in the fight, and that Breeden's pressure and durability paid off in round three when he knocked out Jubli. James praised Breeden's dog mentality but criticized his fight IQ for barking instead of finishing earlier. The win cashed 12 units total from the moneyline and round three prop.

Breeden wins in round 3 at +2000
"We had a free unit bet on Mike Breeden and we also had a quarter of a unit shot on Breeden to win in round three and both of them won."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Anshul Jubli

Jubli is the more active fighter with a BJJ background and long-range weapons. He should be able to complete takedowns and use volume to touch up Breeden. However, there are question marks about his level of competition. Expects Jubli to cruise to a decision win as long as he doesn't get clipped.

"I'm expecting Jubilee to cruise in this matchup and Win It by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Mike Breeden

Paul picks Breeden as a dog, arguing that Jubli is untested and has faced weak competition. He notes that Breeden has fought much tougher opponents and has shown heart and volume. Paul believes Breeden's wrestling and striking will be too much for Jubli, and that the line is inflated.

"I think Mike Breeden has enough of a chance to win the fight I will take this plus money price"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 16, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Anshul Jubli

The MMA Guru is very confident in Anshul Jubli, calling Mike Breeden terrible and not UFC level. He predicts a second-round TKO via ground and pound after a risky first round. He notes that the UFC is feeding Breeden to prospects and that Jubli is big and strong enough to take him down and beat him up.

Jubli wins in round 2 by TKO
"Mike Breeden's terrible he's 10 and six he don't have any good wins he ain't UFC level and it's been proven time and time again and Sh JBL is going to win this one by second round TKO to ground …"
TKO (punches) R1 1:25 · UFC on ESPN: Luque vs. dos Anjos · Aug 12, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Terrance McKinney 0 30 of 47 63% 30 of 47 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:03
Mike Breeden 0 1 of 5 20% 1 of 5 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Terrance McKinney 0 30 of 47 63% 30 of 47 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:03
Mike Breeden 0 1 of 5 20% 1 of 5 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Terrance McKinney 30 of 47 63% 23 of 36 7 of 11 0 of 0 16 of 30 11 of 14 3 of 3
Mike Breeden 1 of 5 20% 0 of 4 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Terrance McKinney 30 of 47 63% 23 of 36 7 of 11 0 of 0 16 of 30 11 of 14 3 of 3
Mike Breeden 1 of 5 20% 0 of 4 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Aug 6, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

Angelo picks McKinney but with low confidence due to cardio concerns and the short-notice turnaround. He notes McKinney has solid wrestling and BJJ but gasses and has a questionable chin. He is staying away from the -400 odds but suggests prop bets like McKinney winning the first round or getting more takedowns.

McKinney to get more takedowns (if under -300), McKinney to win first round
"Terrence McKinney's still going to be the pick but low confidence and I'm staying far far away from these four to one odds"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

Big Brady picks Terrance McKinney to win by knockout early in the first round, likely within 60 seconds. He notes McKinney's dangerous striking and wrestling but acknowledges his poor cardio and short-notice fight. He believes McKinney will finish Breeden quickly, as Breeden has awful takedown defense and has been finished before. However, he cautions that if McKinney doesn't finish in the first round, he is likely to lose.

knockout early in the first round, within 60 seconds
"I will take Terence McKinney to knock out Mike Breeden um within 60 seconds like I think 60 seconds is is very much in play here for Terence McKinney"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Aug 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Mike Breeden

Cody picks Breeden by second-round finish as a prop bet, not on the moneyline. He notes McKinney's notorious cardio issues and short-notice fight (27 days after his last fight). He thinks if Breeden survives the first round, he will take over. He recommends a small sprinkle on Breeden round 2 at long odds, or live betting after the first round.

Breeden round 2 at +1200; also mentions Breeden round 3 at +2100; suggests live betting Breeden after round 1
"breed in round two is a you know throw a little sprinkle and uh and hope for the best type of play of the week"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Aug 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Mike Breeden

James is leaning toward Breeden as a value play, noting McKinney is a round-one-or-bust fighter and is priced at -300. He thinks Breeden is tough with good cardio and could survive the early storm. James admits McKinney could get back on track but feels the odds are too high for such a volatile fighter. He might bet Breeden.

James suggests if betting McKinney, play his KO or submission prop instead of moneyline.
"I'll always fade Terence at minus 300 for the most part against anybody with a pulse."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 10, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

McKinney has cardio issues but is extremely powerful and athletic early. Breeden is coming off a long layoff and camp change. McKinney's under 1.5 rounds streak is 18 of 19 fights, so the under is a strong play. McKinney should get the TKO in the first round due to his speed and power.

under 1.5 rounds (-290), McKinney by TKO in round 1
"I'm gonna go with McKinney here as I think he's too athletic and too powerful for Breeden to deal with early and I think that will allow him to get the TKO victory in the first round"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Aug 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Mike Breeden

Paul also likes Breeden as a live underdog or round 2/3 prop. He notes McKinney's cardio fades after the first round and that Breeden has shown good cardio in past fights, especially in the third round against Natan Levy. He thinks Breeden can survive the initial onslaught and take over later. He recommends a small bet on Breeden round 2 or 3.

Breeden round 2 at +1200; Breeden round 3 at +2100; suggests live betting
"I will be playing the breeding round two pro because five minute fighter bro"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Aug 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

The MMA Guru picks Terrance McKinney but is hesitant, acknowledging McKinney's cardio issues and tendency to gas after round one. He believes McKinney is the better fighter and should win by first-round KO if he fights aggressively, but warns that if the fight goes past round one, Breeden could take over. He suggests a live bet on Breeden if McKinney gasses.

Live bet on Mike Breeden if McKinney gasses after round one
"I'm gonna go Terence McKinney yeah uh but he could lose again because Mike breeden's not some joke"
LOSS vs Natan Levy
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Font vs. Vera · Apr 30, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Natan Levy 0 92 of 141 65% 99 of 150 9 of 16 56% 0 0 3:39
Mike Breeden 0 104 of 210 49% 115 of 221 3 of 4 75% 0 0 1:56
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Natan Levy 0 25 of 41 60% 26 of 42 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:39
Mike Breeden 0 19 of 45 42% 20 of 46 3 of 3 100% 0 0 0:40
2 Natan Levy 0 21 of 27 77% 27 of 35 7 of 8 87% 0 0 2:40
Mike Breeden 0 23 of 45 51% 24 of 46 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:46
3 Natan Levy 0 46 of 73 63% 46 of 73 0 of 6 0% 0 0 0:20
Mike Breeden 0 62 of 120 51% 71 of 129 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:30
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Natan Levy 92 of 141 65% 68 of 115 19 of 21 5 of 5 80 of 124 4 of 8 8 of 9
Mike Breeden 104 of 210 49% 64 of 158 39 of 51 1 of 1 89 of 185 13 of 22 2 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Natan Levy 25 of 41 60% 10 of 25 11 of 12 4 of 4 20 of 35 2 of 3 3 of 3
Mike Breeden 19 of 45 42% 14 of 38 5 of 7 0 of 0 18 of 43 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Natan Levy 21 of 27 77% 17 of 23 4 of 4 0 of 0 15 of 20 1 of 1 5 of 6
Mike Breeden 23 of 45 51% 12 of 32 11 of 13 0 of 0 19 of 40 4 of 5 0 of 0
3 Natan Levy 46 of 73 63% 41 of 67 4 of 5 1 of 1 45 of 69 1 of 4 0 of 0
Mike Breeden 62 of 120 51% 38 of 88 23 of 31 1 of 1 52 of 102 8 of 15 2 of 3
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Apr 24, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Natan Levy

Angelo picks Natan Levy, but expresses doubts about his prospect status. He thinks Levy's relentless takedown attempts will get the fight to the ground and impress judges, but notes Levy gets too excited and ends up in bad scrambles. He says if Levy blows through Breeden, he may be wrong about him, but if he's sloppy, it's too soon for the UFC.

"i still think he is able to get it done against mike breen and i think his relentless takedown attempts ... the tan will get it to the ground"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 25, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Natan Levy

Big Brady picks Natan Levy, praising his well-rounded game, wrestling, top control, and cardio. He believes Levy can compete on the feet and take the fight to the mat if needed. He expects Levy to win a decision, as Breeden is not UFC caliber and has limited tools.

decision
"i like levy i'm going to take levy to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 27, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Natan Levy

Cody agrees with Levy, noting Breeden's lack of offensive wrestling and poor striking defense. He thinks Levy's kicks and outside fighting will be effective, and that Levy's grappling looked improved in his last fight. Cody mentions Levy trains at Syndicate MMA with high-level partners, which should help. He doesn't see Breeden as a threat.

"i'm with you as well"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Apr 28, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Natan Levy

Daniel Levi picks Natan Levy but is not crazy about the -185 price. He likes Levy's karate style and grappling, and believes Breeden may not be UFC caliber. Levi sees Levy getting back on track but passes on betting due to lack of value.

"i see natan levy getting back on track i'm just not crazy about the minus 185 price tag right um ... pass"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 28, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Natan Levy

The host picks Levy, citing his karate style and grappling. He notes Breeden's takedown defense is decent but Levy's leg kicks and wrestling will be effective. Levy's boxing is poor but he will use range and takedowns to control the fight. He expects Levy to win a decision, as Breeden is tough but not UFC caliber.

Levy by decision +175, fight goes the distance -155
"i'll go levy levy by decision which is currently plus 175"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 27, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Natan Levy

Paul picks Natan Levy, citing Breeden's poor performance against Alexander Hernandez and his susceptibility to leg kicks. He notes Levy's karate background and kicking game, and thinks Levy can stay on the outside and pick Breeden apart. Paul acknowledges Levy's greenness but believes he is improving and should be good enough to beat Breeden.

"i think i will side with the favorite in this one but it's not like i love it"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 25, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Natan Levy

The Guru picks Natan Levy, noting his close loss to Rafael Alves was not bad and that he showed technical prowess in his UFC debut. He criticizes Mike Breeden for being a replacement who was knocked out by Alexander Hernandez. The Guru believes Levy is young and hungry, and that Breeden has lost every time he stepped up against decent opponents. He predicts Levy by decision 29-28.

Levy by decision 29-28
"i'm gonna go natan levy by decision 29 28 over mike breeden in a close scrap back and forth levy's technique gets it done"
KO (punch) R1 1:20 · UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Walker · Oct 02, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alexander Hernandez 1 20 of 35 57% 20 of 35 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:01
Mike Breeden 0 6 of 15 40% 6 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alexander Hernandez 1 20 of 35 57% 20 of 35 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:01
Mike Breeden 0 6 of 15 40% 6 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alexander Hernandez 20 of 35 57% 15 of 29 4 of 4 1 of 2 14 of 26 6 of 9 0 of 0
Mike Breeden 6 of 15 40% 4 of 13 0 of 0 2 of 2 5 of 14 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alexander Hernandez 20 of 35 57% 15 of 29 4 of 4 1 of 2 14 of 26 6 of 9 0 of 0
Mike Breeden 6 of 15 40% 4 of 13 0 of 0 2 of 2 5 of 14 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Mike Breeden (158.5: Missed Weight) vs. Alexander Hernandez

Round 1
The five-fight main card starts with a catchweight affair, when “The Great” Hernandez (12-4, 4-3 UFC) comes to blows with “Money” Breeden (10-3, 0-0 UFC). The latter missed weight and therefore forfeited part of his money, but the fight is upon us and referee Mark Smith is as ready as we are for it to start. Hernandez is no interested in any glove touch, and instead comes out swinging. Both men throw hands quickly, with Hernandez breaking up a combination with a kick. Hernandez ducks through a few punches coming his way so he can take the fight down. When Breeden stuffs it, he gets rocked with an elbow over the top. Hernandez does not let him off the hook, connecting with a stern few punches and a heavy leg kick. Hernandez punches his way into a takedown try, and he goes after an elbow on the break again.
Hernandez rocks his opponent with a salvo of punches, and he pours it on with several more powerful strikes that eject Breeden’s mouthpiece. Hernandez continues to pour it on with a blistering barrage of battering blows, and a huge right hand sends Breeden crashing down to the canvas and forces Smith to intervene.
“The Great” wasted no time putting his short-notice foe out of there, earning a crushing knockout with style points.

The Official Result
Alexander Hernandez def. Mike Breeden R1 1:20 via KO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 29, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Angelo picks Alexander Hernandez, expecting him to dominate a short-notice UFC debutant. He notes that Hernandez has legitimate power, speed, and wrestling, and has fought higher competition. Breeden is a high-volume striker but lacks the power and wrestling of Hernandez. Angelo thinks the odds are a bit wide due to Hernandez's inconsistency, but he should win and dominate. He likes the more more monkey knife fight pick and may consider Hernandez in DraftKings despite the $9,400 price tag.

more more monkey knife fight
"i am thinking i am hoping that this is alex hernandez get a nice win start a new streak and get that going"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 30, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Big Brady picks Alexander Hernandez to win by first-round knockout, despite not being high on Hernandez generally. He notes Breeden is stepping in on short notice and is not UFC caliber yet, being 32 but still green. Hernandez has fought much better competition (Moises, Dober, Cerrone) and has impressive knockouts over Chris Gruetzemacher and Vanilto Antunes. Brady expects Hernandez to dominate and finish Breeden inside the distance, likely in the first round.

Hernandez by KO, round 1
"give me hernandez for the win i'll say probably a first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Sep 29, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Cody picks Hernandez but with low confidence due to Hernandez's poor fight IQ and cardio. He notes that Hernandez should win on paper but has a history of underperforming. Breeden is tough and has good cardio, which could be a problem if Hernandez doesn't finish early. He expects Hernandez to win but wouldn't start a parlay with him.

"skill-wise and at least what you've been able to see on paper it appears like it should be a one-way beatdown and that's what i'm going to bank on"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Daniel Levi picks Alexander Hernandez, stating he is much more battle-tested than the newcomer Breeden. He criticizes Hernandez's tendency to fade when fights get tough but believes Breeden is not at that level. Levi notes Breeden is durable (only one KO loss) but expects Hernandez to win, though he is unsure of the method—could be a first-round finish or a grind. He does not recommend laying -600 but is confident in the win.

"hernandez is so much more battle tested than this kid he's just better than this guy"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

I think this is a mismatch. Breeden is a regional-level fighter who is outclassed athletically and technically. Hernandez is faster, hits harder, and is more well-rounded. I like Hernandez by KO at +150 because he should be able to finish Breeden early. The moneyline is too expensive for me to lay, but the KO prop has value.

Hernandez by KO +150
"I do kind of like the ko prop to be honest it kind of reminds me to a degree of the grits mocker fight"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Sep 29, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Paul also picks Hernandez but is wary of his mental fragility and poor cardio. He notes that Breeden is dangerous in the third round and that Hernandez has a history of fading. He thinks Hernandez should win but wouldn't bet him at -525.

"i do think he wins but my ability to have faith in this kid is just gone"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 27, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

The MMA Guru picks Alexander Hernandez by first-round KO, noting that Mike Breeden has been KO'd before and has faced weak competition. Hernandez has KO power, as seen against Chris Gruetzemacher. He believes Hernandez will thrive with no pressure and get a signature win.

Hernandez by KO in round 1
"i'm going to be going with alexander hernandez first round ko here"
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Aug 6, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

Angelo picks McKinney but with low confidence due to cardio concerns and the short-notice turnaround. He notes McKinney has solid wrestling and BJJ but gasses and has a questionable chin. He is staying away from the -400 odds but suggests prop bets like McKinney winning the first round or getting more takedowns.

McKinney to get more takedowns (if under -300), McKinney to win first round
"Terrence McKinney's still going to be the pick but low confidence and I'm staying far far away from these four to one odds"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

Big Brady picks Terrance McKinney to win by knockout early in the first round, likely within 60 seconds. He notes McKinney's dangerous striking and wrestling but acknowledges his poor cardio and short-notice fight. He believes McKinney will finish Breeden quickly, as Breeden has awful takedown defense and has been finished before. However, he cautions that if McKinney doesn't finish in the first round, he is likely to lose.

knockout early in the first round, within 60 seconds
"I will take Terence McKinney to knock out Mike Breeden um within 60 seconds like I think 60 seconds is is very much in play here for Terence McKinney"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Aug 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Mike Breeden

Cody picks Breeden by second-round finish as a prop bet, not on the moneyline. He notes McKinney's notorious cardio issues and short-notice fight (27 days after his last fight). He thinks if Breeden survives the first round, he will take over. He recommends a small sprinkle on Breeden round 2 at long odds, or live betting after the first round.

Breeden round 2 at +1200; also mentions Breeden round 3 at +2100; suggests live betting Breeden after round 1
"breed in round two is a you know throw a little sprinkle and uh and hope for the best type of play of the week"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Aug 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Mike Breeden

James is leaning toward Breeden as a value play, noting McKinney is a round-one-or-bust fighter and is priced at -300. He thinks Breeden is tough with good cardio and could survive the early storm. James admits McKinney could get back on track but feels the odds are too high for such a volatile fighter. He might bet Breeden.

James suggests if betting McKinney, play his KO or submission prop instead of moneyline.
"I'll always fade Terence at minus 300 for the most part against anybody with a pulse."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 10, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

McKinney has cardio issues but is extremely powerful and athletic early. Breeden is coming off a long layoff and camp change. McKinney's under 1.5 rounds streak is 18 of 19 fights, so the under is a strong play. McKinney should get the TKO in the first round due to his speed and power.

under 1.5 rounds (-290), McKinney by TKO in round 1
"I'm gonna go with McKinney here as I think he's too athletic and too powerful for Breeden to deal with early and I think that will allow him to get the TKO victory in the first round"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Aug 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Mike Breeden

Paul also likes Breeden as a live underdog or round 2/3 prop. He notes McKinney's cardio fades after the first round and that Breeden has shown good cardio in past fights, especially in the third round against Natan Levy. He thinks Breeden can survive the initial onslaught and take over later. He recommends a small bet on Breeden round 2 or 3.

Breeden round 2 at +1200; Breeden round 3 at +2100; suggests live betting
"I will be playing the breeding round two pro because five minute fighter bro"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Aug 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

The MMA Guru picks Terrance McKinney but is hesitant, acknowledging McKinney's cardio issues and tendency to gas after round one. He believes McKinney is the better fighter and should win by first-round KO if he fights aggressively, but warns that if the fight goes past round one, Breeden could take over. He suggests a live bet on Breeden if McKinney gasses.

Live bet on Mike Breeden if McKinney gasses after round one
"I'm gonna go Terence McKinney yeah uh but he could lose again because Mike breeden's not some joke"