Career Averages - Terrance McKinney
Career Averages - Mike Breeden
Terrance McKinney
Mike Breeden
Terrance McKinney - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance McKinney | 0 | 13 of 27 | 48% | 15 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
| Kyle Nelson | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Terrance McKinney | 0 | 13 of 27 | 48% | 15 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
| Kyle Nelson | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance McKinney | 13 of 27 | 48% | 12 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 22 |
| Kyle Nelson | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Terrance McKinney | 13 of 27 | 48% | 12 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 22 |
| Kyle Nelson | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Terrance McKinney despite acknowledging his cardio and chin issues. He believes McKinney is the better striker, wrestler, and more powerful, and hopes he puts on a show at home. He admits he went against his own rule of not betting on McKinney and placed a half-unit bet at -141.
Big Brady picks Terrance McKinney to win by first-round knockout. He expects a car crash of a fight, noting both fighters lack durability and have been finished often. He believes McKinney's early pressure and power will be too much for Kyle Nelson, who has been finished in four losses. He thinks McKinney will knock him out in the first few minutes.
Cody picks Nelson, believing McKinney's early explosiveness will fade and Nelson's durability and cardio will take over. He also mentions inside information from Nelson's training partner.
Connor picks Nelson, noting that McKinney is only dangerous in the first round and concedes when he can't get an immediate finish. He points out that McKinney has only won one fight outside the first three minutes in his entire career. Nelson is susceptible early but if he survives, McKinney gives up. Connor says you can't pick a competent fighter to lose to McKinney.
Daniel acknowledges McKinney's first-round finishing ability but is wary of his tendency to fade if he doesn't get the early KO. He picks McKinney but suggests live betting Nelson if the fight goes past two minutes.
The host sees this as a coin flip: McKinney is explosive and dangerous early but has terrible cardio and has never been to a decision; Nelson is slow and hittable but has power and can survive the first round. The implied probabilities (65-40) offer no margin on either side, so the host passes entirely.
The host expects McKinney's explosive power and early aggression to overwhelm Nelson, leading to a first-round knockout. He notes McKinney's tendency to finish early and that all his UFC fights have ended under 1.5 rounds. He is less confident in betting McKinney straight due to his style's volatility but likes the under 1.5 rounds prop.
Paul agrees, noting McKinney's history of gassing and Nelson's ability to survive early storms. He expects Nelson to win after the first round.
The MMA Guru picks Kyle Nelson using reverse psychology, as he often picks McKinney to win by first-round TKO but McKinney fumbles. He believes McKinney will wobble Nelson early but then fade, allowing Nelson to take over in the second and third rounds with elbows and pressure. He notes McKinney's inconsistency.
Zane agrees, stating that McKinney's pattern is clear: he comes in keyed up and if he doesn't finish early, he gives up. He compares McKinney to the ID of fighters like McGregor and Pyfer. Nelson is a competent fighter who can survive the early storm. Zane notes that Nelson could lose if he gets caught early, but otherwise McKinney has no answer.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance McKinney | 0 | 31 of 57 | 54% | 31 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Chris Duncan | 1 | 38 of 55 | 69% | 53 of 75 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 1:10 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Terrance McKinney | 0 | 31 of 57 | 54% | 31 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Chris Duncan | 1 | 38 of 55 | 69% | 53 of 75 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 1:10 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance McKinney | 31 of 57 | 54% | 26 of 50 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 24 of 45 | 6 of 11 | 1 of 1 |
| Chris Duncan | 38 of 55 | 69% | 36 of 51 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 10 of 20 | 6 of 8 | 22 of 27 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Terrance McKinney | 31 of 57 | 54% | 26 of 50 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 24 of 45 | 6 of 11 | 1 of 1 |
| Chris Duncan | 38 of 55 | 69% | 36 of 51 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 10 of 20 | 6 of 8 | 22 of 27 |
Angelo picks Terrance McKinney despite acknowledging his poor durability and cardio. He believes McKinney is incredibly dangerous early and can get the fight to the ground to find a finish. He notes that Chris Duncan is extremely durable and often comes back from being hurt, but Angelo thinks McKinney's early explosiveness will be enough. He advises against betting due to the high risk.
Big Brady picks Chris Duncan, noting McKinney's tendency to fade after early bursts and his seven career finishes. He highlights Duncan's improved ground game and chin, and expects Duncan to weather the early storm and knock out McKinney late in the first round.
Cody leans toward McKinney, citing his explosive start and finishing ability. He notes that McKinney's fights are usually over in the first round and that Duncan has shown a questionable chin. He mentions that if McKinney doesn't finish early, Duncan's cardio advantage could come into play, but he trusts McKinney's early burst.
Connor picks Chris Duncan, noting that Duncan has improved significantly at ATT, developing a calm, consistent striking game with good shot selection and power. He contrasts McKinney's all-gas-no-brakes style that fades after two minutes, and believes Duncan has the answers to McKinney's early blitz.
Daniel picks Duncan, reasoning that if he survives McKinney's first-round onslaught, he will take over. He notes McKinney has never been past the first round and fades, while Duncan has shown durability and finishing ability. He sees Duncan winning by knockout or submission in later rounds.
Lucrative James acknowledges his bias as a friend of Chris Duncan but provides detailed reasoning. He believes McKinney's only chance is an early finish, while Duncan's physicality, cardio, and improving grappling defense will carry him through. He notes Duncan's training with Grant Dawson and focus on back-take defense. He predicts Duncan wins inside the distance, likely by KO.
The host acknowledges the recent love for McKinney but expects Duncan to take advantage of McKinney's overaggressive style and find a finish within one and a half rounds.
Paul picks Duncan, emphasizing his multiple paths to victory. He notes that McKinney's win condition is a first-round finish, while Duncan has power, a guillotine choke, and cardio. He mentions that Duncan trains at American Top Team and has prepared for McKinney's wrestling. He believes if McKinney doesn't finish early, Duncan will take over.
The Guru picks Terrance McKinney despite acknowledging Duncan may be the better fighter. He believes McKinney's speed and first-round explosiveness will catch Duncan, who is hittable early. The Guru predicts a first-round TKO, possibly in the first minute.
Zane picks Chris Duncan, emphasizing that McKinney has never won a UFC fight outside the first two minutes and loses when his initial blitz fails. He notes Duncan's improved striking and power, and believes Duncan can weather the early storm and take over. Zane thinks the odds should be wider in Duncan's favor.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance McKinney | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 0:47 |
| Viacheslav Borshchev | 0 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Terrance McKinney | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 0:47 |
| Viacheslav Borshchev | 0 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance McKinney | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
| Viacheslav Borshchev | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Terrance McKinney | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
| Viacheslav Borshchev | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Terrance McKinney because he believes McKinney's early explosiveness will overwhelm Viacheslav Borshchev, who is older and may not be as durable as before. He notes that McKinney is reliable in that he either finishes early or loses, and he thinks McKinney will come out like a bat out of hell and get the job done. However, he admits he is picking against Borshchev more than for McKinney, and he will monitor the odds for a good betting spot.
Big Brady acknowledges McKinney is the rightful favorite due to his wrestling and power, but he is hesitant because both fighters have questionable durability. He notes Borshchev has terrible takedown defense and was dropped by Chase Hooper, but McKinney's cardio is atrocious and his durability is also suspect. Brady thinks McKinney will land first and win by first-round knockout, but if it leaves the first round, McKinney is in trouble.
The host notes McKinney's tendency for early finishes, but picks Borshchev to fend off the early grappling and get a TKO finish by the end of the first or early second round.
The host picks Terrance McKinney, citing his underrated grappling as the X-factor. He notes that Borshchev has shown weaknesses in grappling, as seen in his losses to Chase Hooper and others. However, he acknowledges McKinney's tendency to get knocked out spectacularly and sees the fight as a 50/50 on the feet. He believes McKinney will use his wrestling to secure a win.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance McKinney | 0 | 54 of 69 | 78% | 69 of 90 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 1 | 1:00 |
| Damir Hadžović | 0 | 4 of 13 | 30% | 4 of 13 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Terrance McKinney | 0 | 54 of 69 | 78% | 69 of 90 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 1 | 1:00 |
| Damir Hadžović | 0 | 4 of 13 | 30% | 4 of 13 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance McKinney | 54 of 69 | 78% | 53 of 67 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 46 of 51 |
| Damir Hadžović | 4 of 13 | 30% | 3 of 9 | 0 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Terrance McKinney | 54 of 69 | 78% | 53 of 67 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 46 of 51 |
| Damir Hadžović | 4 of 13 | 30% | 3 of 9 | 0 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Terrance McKinney despite his unreliability, citing his superior talent, wrestling, and striking. He notes that Damir Hadžović is older (38) and not as dangerous. He worries about McKinney's cardio and chin but believes he should win early. He suggests looking at round props rather than betting the moneyline at -335.
Big Brady sees this as an easy matchup for Terrance McKinney, who has great wrestling and BJJ. Damir Hadžović has the worst takedown defense in the UFC and has been submitted before. Brady thinks McKinney will take him down and submit him in the first round, though he notes McKinney has terrible cardio if the fight extends. He predicts a first-round submission.
McKinney has a massive grappling advantage and will look to get the fight to the ground immediately. He is expected to take the back and secure a first-round submission, as he has done in all nine of his UFC fights. The fight is predicted to go under 1.5 rounds.
The MMA Guru picks Terrance McKinney to win by TKO in the first round. He believes McKinney has finishing potential while Hadžović does not, and that Hadžović is past his prime and likely to be decisioned. He notes McKinney's losses are brutal but expects him to get the job done here.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esteban Ribovics | 0 | 5 of 18 | 27% | 5 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Terrance McKinney | 1 | 5 of 12 | 41% | 5 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Esteban Ribovics | 0 | 5 of 18 | 27% | 5 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Terrance McKinney | 1 | 5 of 12 | 41% | 5 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esteban Ribovics | 5 of 18 | 27% | 3 of 16 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 16 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Terrance McKinney | 5 of 12 | 41% | 3 of 8 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 10 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Esteban Ribovics | 5 of 18 | 27% | 3 of 16 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 16 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Terrance McKinney | 5 of 12 | 41% | 3 of 8 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 10 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Esteban Ribovics as the more durable and dependable fighter, despite Terrance McKinney's raw talent and explosiveness. He notes Ribovics has been taken down 14 times in his last five fights, but McKinney has been finished in every loss. He acknowledges the fight is close to 50/50 and that McKinney could win if he lands early.
Big Brady picks Esteban Ribovics to survive McKinney's early storm and finish him in the late first or second round by knockout. He notes McKinney has never won a UFC fight past the first round and tends to gas if he doesn't finish early. Ribovics has durability, cardio, heart, and finishing ability. He expects McKinney to try wrestling, but if he doesn't finish, he will fade and get finished himself.
Cody picks Ribovics, noting that McKinney is a 'glass cannon' who gasses after the first round. He expects McKinney to come out fast and possibly take Ribovics down early, but Ribovics has shown he can survive and come back. Cody likes the under 1.5 rounds prop as parlay fodder, as McKinney fights are usually short. He suggests live betting Ribovics if McKinney wins the first round.
Daniel Vreeland picks Esteban Ribovics, noting that McKinney is dangerous in the first round but fades if he doesn't get the finish. He believes Ribovics can survive the early onslaught and take over late, getting a finish. He mentions Ribovics' ability to get back to his feet and his late-round power.
The host expects McKinney's early explosiveness to overwhelm Ribovics, likely via knockout in round 1. He notes McKinney's tendency to gas but believes Ribovics' takedown defense issues will be exploited. He strongly recommends the under 1.5 rounds as a must-play, and also likes McKinney round 1 prop. The pick is confident for the early finish, though he acknowledges the risk if McKinney fails.
Paul picks Ribovics, agreeing that McKinney is a first-round specialist who fades. He notes that Ribovics has a strong chin and cardio, and can take McKinney's best shots. Paul expects Ribovics to survive the early storm and take over in the second round. He also likes the under 1.5 rounds prop due to McKinney's tendency to finish or get finished quickly.
The MMA Guru picks Terrance McKinney as an underdog over Esteban Ribovics. He notes that McKinney has a wrestling background he doesn't always use but can rely on, and that Ribovics is hook-heavy with a reach disadvantage. He references Ribovics' fight with Kamuela Kirk where Kirk took him down and controlled him, suggesting McKinney can do the same. He also trusts McKinney's cardio and power on the feet.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance McKinney | 1 | 14 of 21 | 66% | 14 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Brendon Marotte | 0 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Terrance McKinney | 1 | 14 of 21 | 66% | 14 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Brendon Marotte | 0 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance McKinney | 14 of 21 | 66% | 14 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 19 |
| Brendon Marotte | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Terrance McKinney | 14 of 21 | 66% | 14 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 19 |
| Brendon Marotte | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Terrance McKinney to win by first-round submission. He notes McKinney is dangerous early with power and wrestling, while Marotte is a big step up in competition and may not survive the first round. He warns that if Marotte survives, he could win, but expects McKinney to get it done quickly.
Cody picks McKinney, emphasizing that Marotte is a huge underdog with no recent fights and a shaky defense. He notes that McKinney's pressure and power are likely to overwhelm Marotte early. Cody suggests that if Marotte survives the first round, he could be live, but he doubts that will happen.
The host picks Terrance McKinney by round one, noting his explosive power and fast starts. He highlights that 19 of 20 McKinney fights finished under 1.5 rounds. However, he warns against the moneyline due to cardio issues and suggests taking McKinney round one or under 1.5 rounds.
Paul picks McKinney, noting his explosive first-round power and the fact that Marotte has no recent tape and is stepping in on short notice. He acknowledges McKinney's cardio issues but believes Marotte is not durable enough to survive the first round. Paul suggests betting McKinney round 1 or Marotte round 2 as value plays.
The MMA Guru picks Terrance McKinney to win by TKO over Brendan Marotte. He dismisses Marotte as an awful regional fighter who beat an 11-20 opponent and went to a split decision with an 8-4 fighter. He notes Marotte trains at New England Cartel but lacks quality wins. He believes McKinney has a speed advantage and won't be outgrappled, and that Marotte's short notice and lack of durability will lead to a finish.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance McKinney | 0 | 30 of 47 | 63% | 30 of 47 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Mike Breeden | 0 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 1 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Terrance McKinney | 0 | 30 of 47 | 63% | 30 of 47 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Mike Breeden | 0 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 1 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance McKinney | 30 of 47 | 63% | 23 of 36 | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 30 | 11 of 14 | 3 of 3 |
| Mike Breeden | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Terrance McKinney | 30 of 47 | 63% | 23 of 36 | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 30 | 11 of 14 | 3 of 3 |
| Mike Breeden | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks McKinney but with low confidence due to cardio concerns and the short-notice turnaround. He notes McKinney has solid wrestling and BJJ but gasses and has a questionable chin. He is staying away from the -400 odds but suggests prop bets like McKinney winning the first round or getting more takedowns.
Big Brady picks Terrance McKinney to win by knockout early in the first round, likely within 60 seconds. He notes McKinney's dangerous striking and wrestling but acknowledges his poor cardio and short-notice fight. He believes McKinney will finish Breeden quickly, as Breeden has awful takedown defense and has been finished before. However, he cautions that if McKinney doesn't finish in the first round, he is likely to lose.
Cody picks Breeden by second-round finish as a prop bet, not on the moneyline. He notes McKinney's notorious cardio issues and short-notice fight (27 days after his last fight). He thinks if Breeden survives the first round, he will take over. He recommends a small sprinkle on Breeden round 2 at long odds, or live betting after the first round.
James is leaning toward Breeden as a value play, noting McKinney is a round-one-or-bust fighter and is priced at -300. He thinks Breeden is tough with good cardio and could survive the early storm. James admits McKinney could get back on track but feels the odds are too high for such a volatile fighter. He might bet Breeden.
McKinney has cardio issues but is extremely powerful and athletic early. Breeden is coming off a long layoff and camp change. McKinney's under 1.5 rounds streak is 18 of 19 fights, so the under is a strong play. McKinney should get the TKO in the first round due to his speed and power.
Paul also likes Breeden as a live underdog or round 2/3 prop. He notes McKinney's cardio fades after the first round and that Breeden has shown good cardio in past fights, especially in the third round against Natan Levy. He thinks Breeden can survive the initial onslaught and take over later. He recommends a small bet on Breeden round 2 or 3.
The MMA Guru picks Terrance McKinney but is hesitant, acknowledging McKinney's cardio issues and tendency to gas after round one. He believes McKinney is the better fighter and should win by first-round KO if he fights aggressively, but warns that if the fight goes past round one, Breeden could take over. He suggests a live bet on Breeden if McKinney gasses.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nazim Sadykhov | 0 | 8 of 15 | 53% | 20 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 1 | 0:55 |
| Terrance McKinney | 0 | 6 of 14 | 42% | 21 of 34 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 4:16 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nazim Sadykhov | 0 | 5 of 8 | 62% | 16 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:20 |
| Terrance McKinney | 0 | 5 of 8 | 62% | 20 of 28 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 4:12 | |
| 2 | Nazim Sadykhov | 0 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:35 |
| Terrance McKinney | 0 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 1 of 6 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nazim Sadykhov | 8 of 15 | 53% | 6 of 11 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 6 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Terrance McKinney | 6 of 14 | 42% | 3 of 10 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 4 of 12 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nazim Sadykhov | 5 of 8 | 62% | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Terrance McKinney | 5 of 8 | 62% | 2 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Nazim Sadykhov | 3 of 7 | 42% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Terrance McKinney | 1 of 6 | 16% | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo gives a slight lean to Terrance McKinney, calling it a 50.5 to 49.5 pick in his favor. He thinks McKinney is the better fighter overall, with solid striking and wrestling credentials, but his chin is questionable. He is swayed by a conversation with McKinney's coach about improved training partners. However, he hesitates because McKinney was recently knocked out and Sadykhov carries power late. He would only bet if the line moves to make McKinney a bigger underdog.
Big Brady picks Terrance McKinney, expecting him to revert to his aggressive style and finish Sadykhov early. He notes Sadykhov is a slow starter who has been hurt early in fights, which plays into McKinney's strengths. However, he warns that if McKinney doesn't finish in the first few minutes, his poor cardio will be a problem. He calls it a great live betting spot if Sadykhov survives the first round.
Cody picks McKinney at plus money, citing his explosiveness, power, and wrestling advantage. He thinks McKinney will go back to his aggressive style after pacing himself poorly against Bomfim. He notes Sadykhov's takedown defense issues and that McKinney has speed and power advantages. He acknowledges McKinney's cardio is a concern but thinks he can finish early.
The host highlights McKinney's 17 of 18 fights finishing under 1.5 rounds and 15 first-round finishes. He thinks Sadykhov is hittable and lacks durability, and McKinney's explosivity and power will be too much. He picks McKinney to win in round one, either by KO or submission.
Paul picks Sadykhov, citing his ability to fight 15 full minutes and survive early pressure. He notes McKinney's cardio fades after 5-6 minutes and that Sadykhov can take damage and come back. He mentions Sadykhov's cut stoppage win over Elder was competitive, not one-sided. He thinks a live bet on Sadykhov after the first round is a good strategy.
The MMA Guru picks Terrance McKinney over Nazim Sadykhov, citing McKinney's KO power and ability to catch opponents, as seen against Matt Frevola. He worries about McKinney's KO loss but notes his youth and six-month layoff. He sees Sadykhov as a forward-momentum scrapper who could run into a big shot, predicting a McKinney KO.
Mike Breeden - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Breeden | 1 | 92 of 177 | 51% | 94 of 181 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Anshul Jubli | 0 | 103 of 194 | 53% | 104 of 195 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mike Breeden | 0 | 29 of 51 | 56% | 29 of 51 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Anshul Jubli | 0 | 44 of 88 | 50% | 44 of 88 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Mike Breeden | 0 | 29 of 68 | 42% | 31 of 72 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Anshul Jubli | 0 | 48 of 84 | 57% | 49 of 85 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:05 | |
| 3 | Mike Breeden | 1 | 34 of 58 | 58% | 34 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Anshul Jubli | 0 | 11 of 22 | 50% | 11 of 22 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Breeden | 92 of 177 | 51% | 75 of 157 | 11 of 13 | 6 of 7 | 89 of 174 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
| Anshul Jubli | 103 of 194 | 53% | 63 of 145 | 27 of 36 | 13 of 13 | 97 of 181 | 6 of 13 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mike Breeden | 29 of 51 | 56% | 21 of 41 | 4 of 5 | 4 of 5 | 28 of 50 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Anshul Jubli | 44 of 88 | 50% | 23 of 62 | 14 of 19 | 7 of 7 | 40 of 81 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Mike Breeden | 29 of 68 | 42% | 23 of 61 | 4 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 28 of 67 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Anshul Jubli | 48 of 84 | 57% | 33 of 66 | 11 of 14 | 4 of 4 | 46 of 78 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Mike Breeden | 34 of 58 | 58% | 31 of 55 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 33 of 57 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Anshul Jubli | 11 of 22 | 50% | 7 of 17 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 11 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Anshul Jubli but thinks he is not a -400 fighter. He notes Breeden's poor takedown defense (taken down 9 times by Natan Levy) and good get-up game, but expects Jubli's constant pressure and takedowns to be too much. He is confident in Jubli winning but may not bet at those odds.
Big Brady picks Anshul Jubli to win by third round TKO. He notes that Mike Breeden is 0-3 in the UFC with two first-minute losses, while Jubli is a Road to UFC winner who impressed in his debut against Jack Cartwright. Brady likes Jubli's wrestling, control, and ground-and-pound, and expects him to break Breeden as the fight goes on. He also likes the prop of Jubli over 1.5 takedowns on PrizePicks.
Cody picks Breeden, echoing that Jubli's competition is weak and that Breeden has fought better fighters. He notes that Breeden has shown he can go the distance and outwork opponents, while Jubli has not proven his cardio or chin. Cody expects Breeden to win a decision or late finish.
Daniel picks Anshul Jubli to win, arguing that Mike Breeden is a journeyman ranked 233rd in the world and has been knocked out by low-level fighters. He believes Jubli is a legitimate prospect who can use his physicality to win, though he admits Jubli is green and will eventually be faded. He thinks this is a winnable fight for Jubli and that Breeden is not the guy to expose him.
James had a 3-unit bet on Mike Breeden moneyline at +235 and a quarter-unit bet on Breeden to win in round three at +2000. He noted that Breeden lost the first round but was still in the fight, and that Breeden's pressure and durability paid off in round three when he knocked out Jubli. James praised Breeden's dog mentality but criticized his fight IQ for barking instead of finishing earlier. The win cashed 12 units total from the moneyline and round three prop.
Jubli is the more active fighter with a BJJ background and long-range weapons. He should be able to complete takedowns and use volume to touch up Breeden. However, there are question marks about his level of competition. Expects Jubli to cruise to a decision win as long as he doesn't get clipped.
Paul picks Breeden as a dog, arguing that Jubli is untested and has faced weak competition. He notes that Breeden has fought much tougher opponents and has shown heart and volume. Paul believes Breeden's wrestling and striking will be too much for Jubli, and that the line is inflated.
The MMA Guru is very confident in Anshul Jubli, calling Mike Breeden terrible and not UFC level. He predicts a second-round TKO via ground and pound after a risky first round. He notes that the UFC is feeding Breeden to prospects and that Jubli is big and strong enough to take him down and beat him up.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance McKinney | 0 | 30 of 47 | 63% | 30 of 47 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Mike Breeden | 0 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 1 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Terrance McKinney | 0 | 30 of 47 | 63% | 30 of 47 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Mike Breeden | 0 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 1 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance McKinney | 30 of 47 | 63% | 23 of 36 | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 30 | 11 of 14 | 3 of 3 |
| Mike Breeden | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Terrance McKinney | 30 of 47 | 63% | 23 of 36 | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 30 | 11 of 14 | 3 of 3 |
| Mike Breeden | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks McKinney but with low confidence due to cardio concerns and the short-notice turnaround. He notes McKinney has solid wrestling and BJJ but gasses and has a questionable chin. He is staying away from the -400 odds but suggests prop bets like McKinney winning the first round or getting more takedowns.
Big Brady picks Terrance McKinney to win by knockout early in the first round, likely within 60 seconds. He notes McKinney's dangerous striking and wrestling but acknowledges his poor cardio and short-notice fight. He believes McKinney will finish Breeden quickly, as Breeden has awful takedown defense and has been finished before. However, he cautions that if McKinney doesn't finish in the first round, he is likely to lose.
Cody picks Breeden by second-round finish as a prop bet, not on the moneyline. He notes McKinney's notorious cardio issues and short-notice fight (27 days after his last fight). He thinks if Breeden survives the first round, he will take over. He recommends a small sprinkle on Breeden round 2 at long odds, or live betting after the first round.
James is leaning toward Breeden as a value play, noting McKinney is a round-one-or-bust fighter and is priced at -300. He thinks Breeden is tough with good cardio and could survive the early storm. James admits McKinney could get back on track but feels the odds are too high for such a volatile fighter. He might bet Breeden.
McKinney has cardio issues but is extremely powerful and athletic early. Breeden is coming off a long layoff and camp change. McKinney's under 1.5 rounds streak is 18 of 19 fights, so the under is a strong play. McKinney should get the TKO in the first round due to his speed and power.
Paul also likes Breeden as a live underdog or round 2/3 prop. He notes McKinney's cardio fades after the first round and that Breeden has shown good cardio in past fights, especially in the third round against Natan Levy. He thinks Breeden can survive the initial onslaught and take over later. He recommends a small bet on Breeden round 2 or 3.
The MMA Guru picks Terrance McKinney but is hesitant, acknowledging McKinney's cardio issues and tendency to gas after round one. He believes McKinney is the better fighter and should win by first-round KO if he fights aggressively, but warns that if the fight goes past round one, Breeden could take over. He suggests a live bet on Breeden if McKinney gasses.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natan Levy | 0 | 92 of 141 | 65% | 99 of 150 | 9 of 16 | 56% | 0 | 0 | 3:39 |
| Mike Breeden | 0 | 104 of 210 | 49% | 115 of 221 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 1:56 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Natan Levy | 0 | 25 of 41 | 60% | 26 of 42 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:39 |
| Mike Breeden | 0 | 19 of 45 | 42% | 20 of 46 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:40 | |
| 2 | Natan Levy | 0 | 21 of 27 | 77% | 27 of 35 | 7 of 8 | 87% | 0 | 0 | 2:40 |
| Mike Breeden | 0 | 23 of 45 | 51% | 24 of 46 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:46 | |
| 3 | Natan Levy | 0 | 46 of 73 | 63% | 46 of 73 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:20 |
| Mike Breeden | 0 | 62 of 120 | 51% | 71 of 129 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:30 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natan Levy | 92 of 141 | 65% | 68 of 115 | 19 of 21 | 5 of 5 | 80 of 124 | 4 of 8 | 8 of 9 |
| Mike Breeden | 104 of 210 | 49% | 64 of 158 | 39 of 51 | 1 of 1 | 89 of 185 | 13 of 22 | 2 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Natan Levy | 25 of 41 | 60% | 10 of 25 | 11 of 12 | 4 of 4 | 20 of 35 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 3 |
| Mike Breeden | 19 of 45 | 42% | 14 of 38 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 43 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Natan Levy | 21 of 27 | 77% | 17 of 23 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 6 |
| Mike Breeden | 23 of 45 | 51% | 12 of 32 | 11 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 19 of 40 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Natan Levy | 46 of 73 | 63% | 41 of 67 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 45 of 69 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Mike Breeden | 62 of 120 | 51% | 38 of 88 | 23 of 31 | 1 of 1 | 52 of 102 | 8 of 15 | 2 of 3 |
Angelo picks Natan Levy, but expresses doubts about his prospect status. He thinks Levy's relentless takedown attempts will get the fight to the ground and impress judges, but notes Levy gets too excited and ends up in bad scrambles. He says if Levy blows through Breeden, he may be wrong about him, but if he's sloppy, it's too soon for the UFC.
Big Brady picks Natan Levy, praising his well-rounded game, wrestling, top control, and cardio. He believes Levy can compete on the feet and take the fight to the mat if needed. He expects Levy to win a decision, as Breeden is not UFC caliber and has limited tools.
Cody agrees with Levy, noting Breeden's lack of offensive wrestling and poor striking defense. He thinks Levy's kicks and outside fighting will be effective, and that Levy's grappling looked improved in his last fight. Cody mentions Levy trains at Syndicate MMA with high-level partners, which should help. He doesn't see Breeden as a threat.
Daniel Levi picks Natan Levy but is not crazy about the -185 price. He likes Levy's karate style and grappling, and believes Breeden may not be UFC caliber. Levi sees Levy getting back on track but passes on betting due to lack of value.
The host picks Levy, citing his karate style and grappling. He notes Breeden's takedown defense is decent but Levy's leg kicks and wrestling will be effective. Levy's boxing is poor but he will use range and takedowns to control the fight. He expects Levy to win a decision, as Breeden is tough but not UFC caliber.
Paul picks Natan Levy, citing Breeden's poor performance against Alexander Hernandez and his susceptibility to leg kicks. He notes Levy's karate background and kicking game, and thinks Levy can stay on the outside and pick Breeden apart. Paul acknowledges Levy's greenness but believes he is improving and should be good enough to beat Breeden.
The Guru picks Natan Levy, noting his close loss to Rafael Alves was not bad and that he showed technical prowess in his UFC debut. He criticizes Mike Breeden for being a replacement who was knocked out by Alexander Hernandez. The Guru believes Levy is young and hungry, and that Breeden has lost every time he stepped up against decent opponents. He predicts Levy by decision 29-28.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Hernandez | 1 | 20 of 35 | 57% | 20 of 35 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Mike Breeden | 0 | 6 of 15 | 40% | 6 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexander Hernandez | 1 | 20 of 35 | 57% | 20 of 35 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Mike Breeden | 0 | 6 of 15 | 40% | 6 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Hernandez | 20 of 35 | 57% | 15 of 29 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 14 of 26 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| Mike Breeden | 6 of 15 | 40% | 4 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexander Hernandez | 20 of 35 | 57% | 15 of 29 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 14 of 26 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| Mike Breeden | 6 of 15 | 40% | 4 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
The five-fight main card starts with a catchweight affair, when “The Great” Hernandez (12-4, 4-3 UFC) comes to blows with “Money” Breeden (10-3, 0-0 UFC). The latter missed weight and therefore forfeited part of his money, but the fight is upon us and referee Mark Smith is as ready as we are for it to start. Hernandez is no interested in any glove touch, and instead comes out swinging. Both men throw hands quickly, with Hernandez breaking up a combination with a kick. Hernandez ducks through a few punches coming his way so he can take the fight down. When Breeden stuffs it, he gets rocked with an elbow over the top. Hernandez does not let him off the hook, connecting with a stern few punches and a heavy leg kick. Hernandez punches his way into a takedown try, and he goes after an elbow on the break again.
Hernandez rocks his opponent with a salvo of punches, and he pours it on with several more powerful strikes that eject Breeden’s mouthpiece. Hernandez continues to pour it on with a blistering barrage of battering blows, and a huge right hand sends Breeden crashing down to the canvas and forces Smith to intervene.
“The Great” wasted no time putting his short-notice foe out of there, earning a crushing knockout with style points.
The Official Result
Alexander Hernandez def. Mike Breeden R1 1:20 via KO (Punches)
Angelo picks Alexander Hernandez, expecting him to dominate a short-notice UFC debutant. He notes that Hernandez has legitimate power, speed, and wrestling, and has fought higher competition. Breeden is a high-volume striker but lacks the power and wrestling of Hernandez. Angelo thinks the odds are a bit wide due to Hernandez's inconsistency, but he should win and dominate. He likes the more more monkey knife fight pick and may consider Hernandez in DraftKings despite the $9,400 price tag.
Big Brady picks Alexander Hernandez to win by first-round knockout, despite not being high on Hernandez generally. He notes Breeden is stepping in on short notice and is not UFC caliber yet, being 32 but still green. Hernandez has fought much better competition (Moises, Dober, Cerrone) and has impressive knockouts over Chris Gruetzemacher and Vanilto Antunes. Brady expects Hernandez to dominate and finish Breeden inside the distance, likely in the first round.
Cody picks Hernandez but with low confidence due to Hernandez's poor fight IQ and cardio. He notes that Hernandez should win on paper but has a history of underperforming. Breeden is tough and has good cardio, which could be a problem if Hernandez doesn't finish early. He expects Hernandez to win but wouldn't start a parlay with him.
Daniel Levi picks Alexander Hernandez, stating he is much more battle-tested than the newcomer Breeden. He criticizes Hernandez's tendency to fade when fights get tough but believes Breeden is not at that level. Levi notes Breeden is durable (only one KO loss) but expects Hernandez to win, though he is unsure of the method—could be a first-round finish or a grind. He does not recommend laying -600 but is confident in the win.
I think this is a mismatch. Breeden is a regional-level fighter who is outclassed athletically and technically. Hernandez is faster, hits harder, and is more well-rounded. I like Hernandez by KO at +150 because he should be able to finish Breeden early. The moneyline is too expensive for me to lay, but the KO prop has value.
Paul also picks Hernandez but is wary of his mental fragility and poor cardio. He notes that Breeden is dangerous in the third round and that Hernandez has a history of fading. He thinks Hernandez should win but wouldn't bet him at -525.
The MMA Guru picks Alexander Hernandez by first-round KO, noting that Mike Breeden has been KO'd before and has faced weak competition. Hernandez has KO power, as seen against Chris Gruetzemacher. He believes Hernandez will thrive with no pressure and get a signature win.
Expert Picks (7)
Angelo picks McKinney but with low confidence due to cardio concerns and the short-notice turnaround. He notes McKinney has solid wrestling and BJJ but gasses and has a questionable chin. He is staying away from the -400 odds but suggests prop bets like McKinney winning the first round or getting more takedowns.
Big Brady picks Terrance McKinney to win by knockout early in the first round, likely within 60 seconds. He notes McKinney's dangerous striking and wrestling but acknowledges his poor cardio and short-notice fight. He believes McKinney will finish Breeden quickly, as Breeden has awful takedown defense and has been finished before. However, he cautions that if McKinney doesn't finish in the first round, he is likely to lose.
Cody picks Breeden by second-round finish as a prop bet, not on the moneyline. He notes McKinney's notorious cardio issues and short-notice fight (27 days after his last fight). He thinks if Breeden survives the first round, he will take over. He recommends a small sprinkle on Breeden round 2 at long odds, or live betting after the first round.
James is leaning toward Breeden as a value play, noting McKinney is a round-one-or-bust fighter and is priced at -300. He thinks Breeden is tough with good cardio and could survive the early storm. James admits McKinney could get back on track but feels the odds are too high for such a volatile fighter. He might bet Breeden.
McKinney has cardio issues but is extremely powerful and athletic early. Breeden is coming off a long layoff and camp change. McKinney's under 1.5 rounds streak is 18 of 19 fights, so the under is a strong play. McKinney should get the TKO in the first round due to his speed and power.
Paul also likes Breeden as a live underdog or round 2/3 prop. He notes McKinney's cardio fades after the first round and that Breeden has shown good cardio in past fights, especially in the third round against Natan Levy. He thinks Breeden can survive the initial onslaught and take over later. He recommends a small bet on Breeden round 2 or 3.
The MMA Guru picks Terrance McKinney but is hesitant, acknowledging McKinney's cardio issues and tendency to gas after round one. He believes McKinney is the better fighter and should win by first-round KO if he fights aggressively, but warns that if the fight goes past round one, Breeden could take over. He suggests a live bet on Breeden if McKinney gasses.
No comments yet. Be the first to share your thoughts!