vs
-198 +180
UFC on ESPN: Luque vs. dos Anjos · Aug 12, 2023 · Heavyweight · Completed
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Age 34
Height 6' 4"
Reach 77.0"
Weight 265 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 36
Height 6' 4"
Reach 79.0"
Weight 265 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Martin Buday
4.39 SLpM
53.0% Str. Acc.
4.49 SApM
55.0% Str. Def.
0.15 TD Avg
20.0% TD Acc.
93.0% TD Def.
0.1 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Josh Parisian
4.55 SLpM
48.0% Str. Acc.
4.88 SApM
41.0% Str. Def.
0.98 TD Avg
33.0% TD Acc.
46.0% TD Def.
0.2 Sub. Avg
Martin Buday
Moneyline
DraftKings -198
KO/TKO
BetRivers +270
Submission
BetRivers +1200
Decision
BetMGM +175
Josh Parisian
Moneyline
Caesars +180
KO/TKO
BetRivers +540
Submission
FanDuel +1600
Decision
BetMGM +400
Martin Buday - Fight History
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Whittaker vs. de Ridder · Jul 26, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Martin Buday 0 41 of 86 47% 92 of 150 0 of 0 --- 0 2 2:51
Marcus Buchecha 0 24 of 60 40% 80 of 140 1 of 11 9% 0 1 5:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Martin Buday 0 19 of 44 43% 38 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:43
Marcus Buchecha 0 19 of 42 45% 21 of 46 0 of 6 0% 0 0 0:32
2 Martin Buday 0 9 of 12 75% 23 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:50
Marcus Buchecha 0 3 of 8 37% 45 of 62 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:01
3 Martin Buday 0 13 of 30 43% 31 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:18
Marcus Buchecha 0 2 of 10 20% 14 of 32 0 of 4 0% 0 1 1:32
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Martin Buday 41 of 86 47% 30 of 74 5 of 5 6 of 7 36 of 74 4 of 6 1 of 6
Marcus Buchecha 24 of 60 40% 14 of 46 10 of 14 0 of 0 16 of 50 6 of 8 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Martin Buday 19 of 44 43% 14 of 38 4 of 4 1 of 2 15 of 38 4 of 5 0 of 1
Marcus Buchecha 19 of 42 45% 10 of 31 9 of 11 0 of 0 13 of 34 6 of 8 0 of 0
2 Martin Buday 9 of 12 75% 4 of 7 1 of 1 4 of 4 8 of 10 0 of 0 1 of 2
Marcus Buchecha 3 of 8 37% 2 of 6 1 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 6 0 of 0 2 of 2
3 Martin Buday 13 of 30 43% 12 of 29 0 of 0 1 of 1 13 of 26 0 of 1 0 of 3
Marcus Buchecha 2 of 10 20% 2 of 9 0 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Martin Buday vs. Marcus Almeida
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Almeida (-210); Buday (+175)

Round 1
A couple weeks removed from the dramatic conclusion of the heavyweight decision streak, the promotion opens up its event in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, with big men kicking things off. The massive Buday (15-2, 6-1 UFC), who cuts a significant amount of weight to get to the 266-pound limit, will have some serious poundage in his favor when he faces Almeida (5-1, 0-0 UFC). The latter recently came over from One Championship, and he will be making a short-notice debut while looking to keep his 100% finish rate intact. The big fellas meet in the middle without a glove touch as referee Marc Goddard clocks them in, and it’s on with the show.
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Buday opts against the glove touch so he can sprint at his opponent, and he is quick to prepare himself to defend against the takedown. “Buchecha” tries for a single-leg takedown, and Buday’s sheer size allows him to squash Almeida and push him down to the mat. Buday backs off, smacks his foe’s lead leg a few times with kicks, and Goddard has the newcomer stand up. Buday jabs his way forward, and he stops another single in its tracks. Buday fights off a third by pushing Almeida to his back, landing a hammerfist or two before getting the heck out of dodge and not playing in the guard of the BJJ wiz. Goddard has Almeida stand up again, and the fighters both launch single punches at one another. Almeida scores an overhand right in an effort to set up a takedown, but he runs into a Slovakian stone wall once more.
Buday is unconcerned with the wrestling of his adversary, allowing him to open up with heavy punches including a right hand over the top that makes Almeida’s eyes go wide. Almeida shoots for a single, and Buday stops it with ease and dings his man with an uppercut. Almeida goes to the well with another single, and there is nothing to it as he gets clocked with a right hand on the break. Almeida wobbles back and tries to recover, even probing Buday with a right hand of his own, but Buday hits harder and more frequently. Buday gets right in Almeida’s face to slug with him, and Almeida wants nothing to do with mindless brawling. “Buchecha” circles around the outside to drive a knee to the midsection, and the two tie up and knee one another repeatedly. Almeida gets Buday’s attention while they trade, but his subsequent takedown is stood up without much effort. The round ends in the clinch.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Buday
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Buday
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Buday

Round 2
Buday ambles awkwardly out of his corner to engage without any interest in touching gloves, engaging quickly with the grappler with long punches and low kicks. Almeida bobs to fake takedowns, and Buday does not bite as he punches Almeida square in the face. His leg kick is starting to do some damage as well, as he mixes it in every so often. When “Buchecha” tosses out a naked front kick, he gets smacked with a right hand over the top. Almeida rushes forward for a single, and he decides to just tackle Buday to the floor without any further technique to it. He succeeds this time, where he lands in half guard and revs up his jitz engine. Almeida softens Buday up with punches and elbows to the midsection, and Buday holds onto Almeida’s face with both hands.
Buday keeps his hands on Almeida’s face to stop him from high-amplitude strikes or a submission setup, but Almeida still wants Buday’s left arm. Almeida grips hold of a two-on-one wrist lock to set up a kimura, but Buday twist and turns his way out of it. As Buday scrambles, he inadvertently gives up his back while on his knees, and Almeida pounces like a hungry animal to finish his hunt for his prey. Almeida opts to shell Buday on both sides of the head rather than going for a sub, and some of his blows land on the back of the head. Buday scoots his way to the fencing in hopes of standing, and he takes advantage of a mistake from the grappler by hurling Almeida to his back. Almeida appears to be fading fast, laying flat on his back taking deep breaths. Buday lays on top of him, hanging out in the guard away from submission danger so he can rattle off some ground-and-pound before the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Buday
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Almeida

Round 3
There is a glove touch between the heavyweights, and they start talking to one another. Buday reintroduces himself with punches and a calf kick, and Almeida has no immediate answer. Buday meanders forward, ignoring what comes his way so he can clip the newcomer with a right hand behind the ear. Almeida wobbles back, struggling to keep his composure, and Buday slowly walks him down and cracks him again with a left. Almeida shoots in for a takedown that is telegraphed, and he blows past his opponent. Buday loops a left hand up top, and it is one-and-done as he has to defend from a takedown. The Slovakian pushes his weight on the back of Almeida’s neck to hold him down, and he stops another shot and misses a knee by a matter of inches. Almeida is a dog with a bone looking for takedowns, but while the spirit is willing, the flesh is spongy and weak. Buday nails Almeida at any open opportunity when not shutting down the takedown, and he decides that it is time to wade into the guard at the midpoint of the round.
Buday lowers himself down and starts beating down the grappler with elbows, with Almeida nearly pulling guard to get him there. As Buday keeps striking, he gets a bit reckless and sits up, and this allows “Buchecha” to explode and swirl around to take Buday’s back. Buday turns, and in the process, Almeida gets both hooks in and secures back control. Buday flails and forces Almeida off of his back, allowing Almeida to stand up and hover behind him smacking him with short shots on the side of the head. Buday stands, and Almeida rolls to set up a crucifix but winds up on his back. Buday starts raining down Donkey Kong-esque punches while Almeida keeps his knee up as an additional blocking mechanism. The close, messy fight comes to a close as both big men fall to their back in exhaustion after three rounds of MMA without a stoppage.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almeida (29-28 Buday)
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Almeida (29-28 Almeida)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Almeida (29-28 Almeida)

The Official Result
Martin Buday def. Marcus Almeida via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 20, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Martin Buday

Angelo picks Martin Buday, noting he is the more well-rounded fighter with decent wrestling, takedown defense, and striking. He considers Marcus Buchecha one-dimensional, a BJJ specialist, and believes Buday can out-technique him and win a boring decision. He is surprised Buday is the underdog and will not bet on this fight.

No bet; maybe inside distance decision
"Martin is going to be the pick. There's no way I'm betting on this fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 22, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Marcus Buchecha

Big Brady picks Marcus Buchecha, citing his elite BJJ and the massive grappling gap. He notes Buchecha's striking is a work in progress but believes his takedowns and top control will be too much for Budai, who has poor defensive grappling. He predicts an early finish, likely by ground and pound or submission in round one.

finishes fight in round one, ground and pound knockout
"I think Betta gets it done. I think he gets it done early. ... I think he finishes fight in round one."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 23, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Martin Buday

Buday is expected to keep the fight upright, utilize his striking and cardio advantage, and break down Buchecha for a round three TKO. Buchecha is a high-level BJJ specialist but his wrestling is not good, so Buday should avoid the ground.

round 3 TKO
"I expect Budai to keep this fight upright, utilize his striking and cardio advantage, and I expect him to break down Buchesa and win this fight by round three TKO."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Marcus Buchecha

The MMA Guru picks Marcus Buchecha, citing his elite jiu-jitsu credentials as a multiple-time world champion and ADCC champion. He acknowledges Buchecha's MMA transition and toughness shown in the Rugrug fight, despite the loss. He believes Buchecha's takedown ability and top pressure will be too much for Martin Buday, who he calls a 'plotter' but notes Buday's solid UFC record. He predicts an early submission, specifically round one.

Round 1 submission
"I trust in Betta here. I'm going to say Bucha gets this one done. Early submission. In fact, round one submission."
Decision (unanimous) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Emmett vs. Murphy ·
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Martin Buday 0 58 of 107 54% 142 of 211 0 of 1 0% 0 0 5:06
Uran Satybaldiev 0 36 of 141 25% 45 of 154 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:20
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Martin Buday 0 17 of 39 43% 41 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:10
Uran Satybaldiev 0 14 of 51 27% 16 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Martin Buday 0 28 of 44 63% 44 of 64 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:24
Uran Satybaldiev 0 12 of 47 25% 13 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Martin Buday 0 13 of 24 54% 57 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:32
Uran Satybaldiev 0 10 of 43 23% 16 of 51 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:20
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Martin Buday 58 of 107 54% 29 of 72 3 of 4 26 of 31 49 of 93 9 of 14 0 of 0
Uran Satybaldiev 36 of 141 25% 19 of 120 6 of 6 11 of 15 32 of 137 4 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Martin Buday 17 of 39 43% 7 of 26 0 of 0 10 of 13 17 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Uran Satybaldiev 14 of 51 27% 6 of 39 2 of 2 6 of 10 13 of 50 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Martin Buday 28 of 44 63% 13 of 26 2 of 3 13 of 15 22 of 35 6 of 9 0 of 0
Uran Satybaldiev 12 of 47 25% 8 of 43 1 of 1 3 of 3 12 of 47 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Martin Buday 13 of 24 54% 9 of 20 1 of 1 3 of 3 10 of 19 3 of 5 0 of 0
Uran Satybaldiev 10 of 43 23% 5 of 38 3 of 3 2 of 2 7 of 40 3 of 3 0 of 0
CANCEL vs Kennedy Nzechukwu
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 30, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

Angelo initially wanted to pick Martin Buday but changed his mind after rewatching Buday's fight against Andre Arlovski, where Buday struggled to outwork a 45-year-old. He notes Kennedy Nzechukwu has power and takedown defense, and despite being gun-shy at times, he can turn fights around. Angelo picks Kennedy but suggests a prop bet for better value due to the steep odds.

maybe a prop bet here to get some better value
"Kennedy is the pick maybe a prop bet here to get some better value minus 325 seems tough dude."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 1, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

Big Brady picks Kennedy Nzechukwu despite acknowledging his inconsistency. He believes Martin Buday's game is limited to cage pushing and that Nzechukwu is the much better striker with more power and cardio. He expects a late finish, possibly a third-round KO.

third round KO
"I'll say third round KO for Kennedy and zuku"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Nzechukwu. He shares concerns about Nzechukwu's mental fragility but thinks Buday is not the fighter to exploit it. Connor notes that Buday's record is unimpressive and he hasn't faced killers, while Nzechukwu is a good athlete for his size. He warns that Nzechukwu starts slow, which could allow Buday to get comfortable, but ultimately sees Nzechukwu's skills prevailing.

"I kind of have trouble seeing it to be honest... I'll pick in such a crew as well."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

Buday will make the fight close by engaging in the clinch, but Nzechukwu's athleticism advantage and damage once back in space will cause problems. Nzechukwu is expected to win on the scorecards.

decision
"I think budai will make this fight very close by engaging in the clinch But ultimately it'll be the damage of enzu once he gets back out into space that will cause budai problems look for enzu to win this …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

The Guru is confident in Kennedy Nzechukwu, mocking Martin Buday's poor physique and calling him out of shape. He believes Nzechukwu's reach and dynamism will be too much for Buday, and predicts a first-round TKO via big shots. He notes Buday's training with Tom Aspinall but doesn't think it will help.

Kennedy Nzechukwu wins by TKO in round 1
"I'm going with Kennedy as a Chuku. TKO finish round one. Big shots put away Martin Bedair."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

Zane picks Nzechukwu, noting he is more technical, diverse, and athletic than Buday. He acknowledges Nzechukwu's confidence issues and tendency to get scared off by aggression, but believes Buday's slow, steady pressure won't overwhelm him. Zane points out that Buday is durable but not powerful, and Nzechukwu has many options to win, though he could still lose if Buday just leans on him.

Nzechukwu opened -274, now -336; Buday opened +219, now +292. Zane says the line is too wide.
"I'll pick in such a crew as well, but it flies in the face of the dadliness theory of heavyweight and I won't be at all surprised if Budai just gets out there grabs him and mashes him on the …"
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · Jun 29, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Martin Buday 0 74 of 119 62% 98 of 147 0 of 1 0% 0 0 4:58
Andrei Arlovski 0 54 of 84 64% 165 of 199 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:40
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Martin Buday 0 14 of 25 56% 16 of 28 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:48
Andrei Arlovski 0 8 of 21 38% 55 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:18
2 Martin Buday 0 27 of 46 58% 32 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:09
Andrei Arlovski 0 22 of 32 68% 45 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
3 Martin Buday 0 33 of 48 68% 50 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:01
Andrei Arlovski 0 24 of 31 77% 65 of 75 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Martin Buday 74 of 119 62% 34 of 69 26 of 33 14 of 17 54 of 97 20 of 22 0 of 0
Andrei Arlovski 54 of 84 64% 24 of 51 25 of 27 5 of 6 23 of 48 31 of 36 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Martin Buday 14 of 25 56% 8 of 17 4 of 5 2 of 3 12 of 22 2 of 3 0 of 0
Andrei Arlovski 8 of 21 38% 5 of 17 1 of 2 2 of 2 4 of 16 4 of 5 0 of 0
2 Martin Buday 27 of 46 58% 14 of 29 8 of 12 5 of 5 19 of 37 8 of 9 0 of 0
Andrei Arlovski 22 of 32 68% 8 of 16 11 of 12 3 of 4 8 of 14 14 of 18 0 of 0
3 Martin Buday 33 of 48 68% 12 of 23 14 of 16 7 of 9 23 of 38 10 of 10 0 of 0
Andrei Arlovski 24 of 31 77% 11 of 18 13 of 13 0 of 0 11 of 18 13 of 13 0 of 0
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jun 26, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Andrei Arlovski

Cody picks Arlovski, citing his experience and tendency to win close decisions. He notes that Buday has low output and poor wrestling, and that Arlovski is a fan favorite who often gets the nod in close fights. Cody believes Arlovski can outpoint Buday in a low-volume affair, but admits it's a risky pick.

"Arlovski for me in like a real greasy split decision."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jun 27, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Martin Buday

Daniel thinks Buday will win the fight by pinning Arlovski against the fence and wearing him down with dirty boxing. However, he is hesitant to lay the price because similar prospects like Tanner Boser and Philipe Lins failed to finish Arlovski. He notes that Aspen Ladd did his job at a similar price, so he expects Buday to win but is not interested in the bet.

"I think Buday is going to win the fight I'm just not interested in this price."
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Jun 26, 2024 (3 days before fight)

The host does not discuss this fight at all in the transcript. The entire podcast is focused on the Conor McGregor vs Michael Chandler fight, which is not on the provided fight card. Therefore, no pick is made for this fight.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 25, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Martin Buday

The host picks Buday, expecting him to be pissed off after his last loss and to pressure Arlovski. He thinks Buday's clinch work and forward pressure will wear on Arlovski, and hopes Buday goes for takedowns to finish easily. He recommends Buday inside the distance at +150.

Buday inside the distance at +150
"I'm going to go budai and budai inside the distance."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 26, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Andrei Arlovski

Paul leans toward Arlovski, noting that Buday has been out struck in recent fights and that Arlovski has a history of winning split decisions. He believes Arlovski's durability and experience will be key, and that Buday lacks the power to finish him. Paul expects a boring decision win for Arlovski.

"I'm seeing all the same stuff you're seeing and I agree largely with a lot of the points."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 25, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Martin Buday

The Guru picks Martin Buday over Andrei Arlovski. He notes Arlovski's age and recent KO losses. He likes Buday's pressure game plan and training with Tom Aspinall. He believes Buday will lean on Arlovski in the clinch and break him down with body shots.

"I'm going to go with Martin B... I think he'll Force the fight and that'll Break alovi"
LOSS vs Shamil Gaziev
TKO (punches) R2 0:56 · UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · Dec 16, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Shamil Gaziev 0 8 of 20 40% 13 of 26 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:20
Martin Buday 0 49 of 98 50% 60 of 114 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:18
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Shamil Gaziev 0 7 of 17 41% 12 of 23 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:20
Martin Buday 0 36 of 73 49% 45 of 87 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:08
2 Shamil Gaziev 0 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Martin Buday 0 13 of 25 52% 15 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Shamil Gaziev 8 of 20 40% 8 of 19 0 of 1 0 of 0 8 of 17 0 of 3 0 of 0
Martin Buday 49 of 98 50% 35 of 79 14 of 19 0 of 0 35 of 73 5 of 10 9 of 15
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Shamil Gaziev 7 of 17 41% 7 of 16 0 of 1 0 of 0 7 of 15 0 of 2 0 of 0
Martin Buday 36 of 73 49% 27 of 59 9 of 14 0 of 0 23 of 49 4 of 9 9 of 15
2 Shamil Gaziev 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 1 0 of 0
Martin Buday 13 of 25 52% 8 of 20 5 of 5 0 of 0 12 of 24 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Martin Buday vs. Shamil Gaziev
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Buday (-148), Gaziev (+124)

Round 1
The year-ending UFC pay-per-view is upon us, and with a record number of fights for the organization, it has been one heck of a 2023 calendar. Before fans receive a much-needed respite over the holidays, a dozen matchups of high intrigue will play out in Las Vegas. It may not start with 12 drummers drumming, but when the heavyweights open up the billing, the thumps of the two big men laying into one another might sound like percussion. Getting things started will be once-beaten, surging Buday (13-1, 4-0 UFC) and the undefeated Gaziev (11-0, 0-0 UFC). Despite their heft, the knockout rates of these burly gentlemen that will combine for 525 mighty pounds—not counting any weight cut—are not through the roof. Referee Mark Smith will nevertheless be on his A-game for the card opener, one that begins with a bump of large fists. Gaziev takes the center of the cage, and he sets up immediate counters when Buday lumbers towards him. Gaziev cuts off his foe with a two-hook combo, making Buday take a second look at coming in. Gaziev sticks out a sharp jab, and he flashes a mean grin while stalking after Buday. Gaziev marks up Buday’s nose with combinations, and he follows a few punches with a knee up the middle. Buday grabs hold of him after absorbing the flush knee to the breadbasket to slow down the surging offense of the UFC debutant. Gaziev pushes off, and he loads on power punches while further busting Buday up. Buday circles away, and he gets backed up to the fence and takes a knee that partially bounces off his guard. Buday escapes, and Gaziev walks him down and blasts him in the face with a shovel uppercut that makes Buday’s nose leak blood. Buday starts blinking and brings his hands up to cover his face, and he backs off in dire trouble. Smith recognizes that there is a nasty cut opened up either under his left eyebrow or on his eyelid, and he pauses the round and brings in the doctor to check on his condition. Buday is cleared to continue, and he thanks Smith by shooting in for a takedown. Gaziev steamrolls him over and pushes Buday to his back, where he proceeds to target the bloodied eye with punches and elbows. Gaziev moves to half guard, and he grinds his elbow mercilessly on Buday’s mouth and throat. Gaziev sits up and busts Buday in the face with a few left hands, and blood continues to leak out of Buday’s eye. Buday turns over as he continues to take punishment, and he fights to a knee but is wrenched down by the undefeated fighter. Gaziev drills a knee to the posterior, and when Buday stands up, Gaziev follows him with a knee on the jaw right before the bell sounds.
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Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gaziev
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Gaziev
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Gaziev

Round 2
Smith brings in the doctor to again take a look at Buday’s eye, who checks on Buday’s vision and condition. The physician informs Smith that Buday can still continue, and the second round begins. Gaziev wants to waste little time as he searches for a finish, marching Buday down and slugging him in the face with ruthless right hands and elbows. Buday shells up, his back against the cage wall, and Gaziev lays into him with powerful blows.
Smith implores Buday to fight back, and Gaziev drills his foe in the body with a right hand that makes Buday double over. Gaziev continues hurling punches as Buday wilts but does not go down, and Smith recognizes that Buday has nothing left to offer and waves off the match.
That makes it a perfect 12 up with none down for the debuting Gaziev, who has notched 11 of his 12 victories inside the distance.

The Official Result
Shamil Gaziev def. Martin Badys R2 0:56 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Dec 10, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Shamil Gaziev

Angelo picks Shamil Gaziev, impressed by his power, cardio, and toughness. He notes that Buday has faced weaker competition and that Gaziev's power is a different level. He has a quarter-unit bet on Gaziev at +155.

Quarter unit bet at +155; heavyweight so small bet
"Shamil is the pick I do have a small quarter of a unit bet on him at plus 155"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 13, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Martin Buday

Big Brady picks Martin Buday to win by second-round TKO, favoring Buday's cardio and size. He notes Gaziev's early finish power but poor cardio, and believes if Buday survives the first round, he will break Gaziev in deep waters. Brady highlights Buday's brown belt in BJJ and volume striking (over 5 significant strikes per minute). He expects Buday to wear on Gaziev against the cage, take him down, and finish with ground and pound.

"I like budai to win this fight in the second or third round I think he breaks down gaze holds him against the cage puts his weight on him wears on him and eventually takes him down hopefully gets on …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 14, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Martin Buday

Cody picks Buday, arguing that Gaziev has poor cardio and will fade after the first round. He notes that Gaziev's wrestling is not elite and his striking is bad, while Buday has good cardio and can push a pace. Cody believes Buday will survive the early onslaught and take over in later rounds, winning by TKO or decision. He sees Buday as the safer pick.

Martin Buday by TKO
"I got budy I got budai to take him out down the stretch probably by TKO"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Dec 14, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Shamil Gaziev

Jeff Fox picks Shamil Gaziev by knockout, stating that he likes Gaziev's straight punches and the way he attacks. He believes Gaziev will land one to Martin Buday's big skull and finish him. The prop is at plus 250.

Shamil Gaziev by knockout at +250
"I'm gonna take Shamil godv uh I'm gonna take him by knockout"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Shamil Gaziev

Lucrative James picks Shamil Gaziev as an underdog. He believes Gaziev has more finishing upside early, is more athletic, and hits harder. He criticizes Martin Buday's plodding style and porous striking defense, noting Buday has been cracked by lesser fighters. He says it's Gaziev or pass, and that laying minus 200 on Buday is not advisable.

"I like Gaziev a little bit as an underdog in this spot... it's Gaziev or pass."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Martin Buday

The host picks Buday, praising his pace, pressure, durability, and cardio. He expects Buday to stuff Gaziev's early takedown attempts, then take over in rounds two and three, breaking Gaziev in the clinch and finding a late finish. He notes that Gaziev's cardio looks sketchy and that Buday will be the better striker and more durable. He predicts a third-round stoppage for Buday.

Buday by TKO in round 3
"give me Martin budai here and I think he gets a third round stoppage over Shamil GV"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Dec 14, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Shamil Gaziev

Paul picks Gaziev as an underdog, noting that Buday has struggled against bottom-level heavyweights and that Gaziev has a wrestling advantage. He acknowledges that Gaziev's cardio is a concern but believes if Gaziev can get early takedowns, he can control the fight. Paul is not fully confident but sees value at +135, especially since Buday has not faced many wrestlers.

"I took the underdog just cuz In fairness to gazi"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Shamil Gaziev

The Guru picks Shamil Gaziev over Martin Buday, criticizing Buday as an out-of-shape heavyweight with no grappling or striking skills. He highlights Gaziev's regional credentials and finishing ability. He predicts Gaziev will get a takedown and submit Buday with an arm triangle in round one.

Gaziev by submission (arm triangle) in round 1
"I'm going to go with Shamil gaziev getting this one done by first round armed triangle submission after a takedown in the Midway point of round one"
WIN vs Josh Parisian
Submission (kimura) R1 4:11 · UFC on ESPN: Luque vs. dos Anjos · Aug 12, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Martin Buday 0 26 of 61 42% 27 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
Josh Parisian 0 42 of 67 62% 62 of 91 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:56
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Martin Buday 0 26 of 61 42% 27 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
Josh Parisian 0 42 of 67 62% 62 of 91 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:56
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Martin Buday 26 of 61 42% 15 of 49 6 of 7 5 of 5 20 of 47 6 of 14 0 of 0
Josh Parisian 42 of 67 62% 35 of 60 7 of 7 0 of 0 28 of 49 14 of 18 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Martin Buday 26 of 61 42% 15 of 49 6 of 7 5 of 5 20 of 47 6 of 14 0 of 0
Josh Parisian 42 of 67 62% 35 of 60 7 of 7 0 of 0 28 of 49 14 of 18 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Martin Buday

Angelo picks Buday fairly confidently, noting Buday has power, solid footwork, and better cardio. He thinks Buday should be the better striker and have takedown defense to keep it standing. He expects a decision win and suggests looking at round lines, possibly over 2.5 rounds.

Over 2.5 rounds (if line drops)
"Martin should win this fight I'm fairly confident in him and this is likely a decision"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Aug 7, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Martin Buday

Big Brady picks Martin Buday to win by decision, but is very hesitant. He notes Buday's skills (brown belt in BJJ, good top game) but criticizes his game plan of holding opponents against the cage and not using takedowns. He points out that Buday has attempted zero takedowns in his three UFC fights. He believes Buday could easily win if he wrestles, but doubts he will. He calls the fight 'disgusting' and says he wants nothing to do with it.

"give me budai budai by decision but this is a fight that I really want nothing to do with I mean this is a disgusting fight"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Martin Buday

Cody picks Buday, expecting a boring decision. He notes Buday's style of clinching and controlling against the cage, and that Parisian has poor cardio and has been taken down easily. He thinks Buday will win by volume and control, and recommends the over 2.5 rounds and Buday by decision. He also mentions Buday over 56.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks.

Over 2.5 rounds (-125); Buday by decision (+165); Buday over 56.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks
"party Marty by volume by holding up against the cage maybe get some takedowns if he wants to"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Aug 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Josh Parisian

James sees value on Parisian at +180, calling Buday a 'cage push or bust' fighter who gassed against Jake Collier. He thinks Parisian might not gas as badly and the fight is closer than the odds suggest. However, he is not confident due to the volatility and may not bet it.

"I think Josh Parisian is value here... will I bet on him? That's different."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 10, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Martin Buday

Buday is on an 11-fight winning streak and wears on opponents in the clinch, taking them down and doing damage from top. Parisian is an average heavyweight with one speed and alternating wins and losses. Buday's hard-nosed approach and tight striking defense should allow him to pull away late and win by decision. However, the line at -200 is a bit wide as Parisian could have grappling success.

Buday by decision
"I fully expect budai to get his hand raised by decision in this matchup"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Martin Buday

Paul picks Buday, agreeing it will be a slow heavyweight fight. He notes Parisian's poor performances and that Buday is younger and more effective in the clinch. He thinks Buday by decision is likely and likes the over 2.5 rounds. He also mentions Buday over 56.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks.

Over 2.5 rounds; Buday by decision; Buday over 56.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks
"the official pick would be budai by decision but like it's gonna be super super ugly"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Martin Buday

The MMA Guru picks Martin Buday over Josh Parisian, stating that Parisian is dangerous but Buday has better conditioning, clinch work, and cardio for a heavyweight. He notes Buday's controversial win over Lukasz Brzeski and his performance against Jake Collier. He expects Buday to outwork Parisian against the cage and in the clinch, leading to a decision or late finish.

"I'm going with Tom Segura okay Martin bidet is gonna win this fight against Josh Parisian"
WIN vs Jake Collier
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Song vs. Simon · Apr 29, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Martin Buday 0 98 of 177 55% 145 of 229 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:45
Jake Collier 0 94 of 207 45% 107 of 226 0 of 1 0% 0 0 4:31
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Martin Buday 0 27 of 51 52% 30 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:20
Jake Collier 0 45 of 99 45% 48 of 107 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:57
2 Martin Buday 0 38 of 65 58% 51 of 79 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Jake Collier 0 27 of 55 49% 29 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:20
3 Martin Buday 0 33 of 61 54% 64 of 96 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:17
Jake Collier 0 22 of 53 41% 30 of 62 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:14
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Martin Buday 98 of 177 55% 66 of 142 24 of 27 8 of 8 72 of 143 19 of 27 7 of 7
Jake Collier 94 of 207 45% 63 of 175 22 of 23 9 of 9 77 of 185 15 of 17 2 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Martin Buday 27 of 51 52% 20 of 43 2 of 3 5 of 5 26 of 49 1 of 2 0 of 0
Jake Collier 45 of 99 45% 32 of 85 7 of 8 6 of 6 43 of 93 0 of 1 2 of 5
2 Martin Buday 38 of 65 58% 22 of 48 14 of 15 2 of 2 24 of 46 14 of 19 0 of 0
Jake Collier 27 of 55 49% 20 of 48 6 of 6 1 of 1 18 of 46 9 of 9 0 of 0
3 Martin Buday 33 of 61 54% 24 of 51 8 of 9 1 of 1 22 of 48 4 of 6 7 of 7
Jake Collier 22 of 53 41% 11 of 42 9 of 9 2 of 2 16 of 46 6 of 7 0 of 0
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 26, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Martin Buday

Cody picks Buday at plus money, noting that both fighters have poor recent performances. He believes if Buday uses his size and grappling to lean on Collier and push him against the cage, he can win. He is concerned about Collier's cardio after his last fight and thinks Buday's path to victory is through control and wearing Collier down.

"I'm gonna take that plus money and that plus money is currently on Martin budai so that's going to be a pick for now"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 27, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Martin Buday

Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Collier's path to victory is either instant or leads to slow disaster. He points out that Collier was a middleweight who moved up and lacks the fitness to carry the weight, whereas Buday is a solid heavyweight who can fight into shape. Connor emphasizes that Collier's best wins are against fighters who couldn't match his pace, but Buday can sustain his own pace.

"Budai is the kind of fighter who has who could potentially with the extra money fight his way into heavyweight shape over time. Call your head Collier has eaten his way into heavy weight."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 26, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jake Collier

Paul picks Collier, citing his volume and cardio advantage. He notes that Collier can land over 100 significant strikes and Buday has low volume. He predicts Collier wins by decision, as Buday is not likely to finish. He also mentions a prop on Buday under 65.5 significant strikes for PrizePicks.

Jake Collier by decision; Martin Buday under 65.5 significant strikes (PrizePicks)
"I'm gonna side with uh with Jay Collier to win Jay Collier by decision would be my official pick"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 27, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Martin Buday

Zane picks Buday because he has the durability and patience to weather Collier's early storm, and Collier historically fades after a strong start. He notes that Buday is a competent heavyweight who can sustain a patient pace, while Collier's lack of fitness and tendency to gas out make him unreliable. Zane is surprised the odds are even, as he sees Buday as a clear favorite.

Odds comment: Buday opened at -140, now -130; Collier opened at +126, now -115. Zane is shocked the line is dead even.
"I think that basically that booty is going to weather the Jake cuddly or storm... so having the durability and having the if not the ability to push a crazy pace at least to sustain the patient pace he does …"
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Vera vs. Cruz · Aug 13, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Martin Buday 0 66 of 188 35% 66 of 188 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Łukasz Brzeski 0 118 of 273 43% 124 of 280 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Martin Buday 0 25 of 63 39% 25 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Łukasz Brzeski 0 41 of 104 39% 47 of 111 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Martin Buday 0 19 of 55 34% 19 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Łukasz Brzeski 0 43 of 89 48% 43 of 89 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Martin Buday 0 22 of 70 31% 22 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Łukasz Brzeski 0 34 of 80 42% 34 of 80 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Martin Buday 66 of 188 35% 50 of 169 3 of 6 13 of 13 65 of 187 1 of 1 0 of 0
Łukasz Brzeski 118 of 273 43% 49 of 182 51 of 69 18 of 22 116 of 268 2 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Martin Buday 25 of 63 39% 20 of 56 0 of 2 5 of 5 24 of 62 1 of 1 0 of 0
Łukasz Brzeski 41 of 104 39% 19 of 74 16 of 21 6 of 9 39 of 99 2 of 5 0 of 0
2 Martin Buday 19 of 55 34% 14 of 50 1 of 1 4 of 4 19 of 55 0 of 0 0 of 0
Łukasz Brzeski 43 of 89 48% 18 of 59 15 of 20 10 of 10 43 of 89 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Martin Buday 22 of 70 31% 16 of 63 2 of 3 4 of 4 22 of 70 0 of 0 0 of 0
Łukasz Brzeski 34 of 80 42% 12 of 49 20 of 28 2 of 3 34 of 80 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Martin Buday

Angelo picks Martin Buday due to his power, noting that Brzeski doesn't like getting hit and may cower. However, he doesn't like the odds at 2-to-1, so he won't bet the moneyline but will use Buday in knockout kings daily fantasy.

Will use Buday in Monkey Knife Fight knockout kings
"ultimately i am going to go with bidet here because i think his power is gonna be the difference i don't like him at two to one odds so i'm not gonna have a money line bet on him"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 9, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Martin Buday

Big Brady picks Martin Buday to win by second-round finish. He notes that Brzeski has terrible cardio, gassing within the first two minutes, and is undersized. Buday uses his size well, pushing opponents against the cage and wearing them down. Brady expects Buday to eventually finish Brzeski, possibly by knockout or ground and pound.

second round finish
"i'm going to say he does win by second round finish"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 10, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Martin Buday

Cody picks Martin Buday, citing his size advantage (30+ lbs) and clinch-heavy style. He notes Brzeski is smaller, may not be on PEDs anymore, and has a limited gas tank. Cody expects Buday to wear him down and finish late in the second or third round.

"i gotta go with the the bigger of the heavyweights to get it done and that's the slovakian prospect"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 10, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Martin Buday

Daniel Levi picks Martin Buday, describing him as a real heavyweight who imposes his size and will. He notes that Buday weighs 265 pounds and uses brutal knees and elbows against the fence. In contrast, Brzeski is lighter and has a failed drug test, so Levi expects Buday to dominate.

"Give me the real heavyweight Martin Buday in that one."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 13, 2022 (fight day)
Martin Buday

The host likes Buday, mentioning he has power and volume. He also notes that Brzeski doesn't look good on the skills. He mentions a bet on Buday inside the distance at -110 and round two at +550.

Buday inside the distance -110; Buday round 2 +550 (on FanDuel).
"i went straight on the uh uh round two plus 550 on fanduel hit that"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 10, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Martin Buday

Paul picks Martin Buday, agreeing with Cody's analysis. He notes the over 1.5 rounds line has moved to -175, but he prefers to look for an over 2.5 or fight goes to decision prop, as Buday tends to grind out wins late.

Over 1.5 rounds (mentioned as moved to -175); looking for over 2.5 or fight goes to decision
"i kind of like the early the early er numbers on the over one and a half rounds that were available but now that it's jacked up to minus 175"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Martin Buday

The host picks Martin Buday, citing a 35-pound weight advantage and expecting him to wear out Łukasz Brzeski against the cage for a third-round TKO. He notes Brzeski's positive steroid test and questions his technique, suggesting he looked better on regional shows than on the Contender Series.

third round TKO due to exhaustion
"i'm going to go over martin bidet third round tko mainly due to the exhaustion of lucas bursky"
Josh Parisian - Fight History
TKO (punches) R1 0:18 · UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · Mar 09, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Robelis Despaigne 1 7 of 9 77% 7 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Josh Parisian 0 2 of 5 40% 2 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Robelis Despaigne 1 7 of 9 77% 7 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Josh Parisian 0 2 of 5 40% 2 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Robelis Despaigne 7 of 9 77% 7 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0 5 of 7 0 of 0 2 of 2
Josh Parisian 2 of 5 40% 1 of 4 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Robelis Despaigne 7 of 9 77% 7 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0 5 of 7 0 of 0 2 of 2
Josh Parisian 2 of 5 40% 1 of 4 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 3, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Robelis Despaigne

Angelo picks Robelis Despaigne despite it being his UFC debut, citing his Olympic taekwondo background, insane power, and 19-second cumulative knockout time in his last three fights. He acknowledges Parisian is durable and has experience, but believes Parisian lacks one-punch power to hurt Despaigne. He considers a high-risk parlay with Despaigne.

Might include Despaigne in a high-risk parlay.
"I do have to go robell here and I I might do a high-risk parlay"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Robelis Despaigne

Big Brady picks Robelis Despaigne to win by first-round knockout in under 60 seconds. He notes Despaigne's incredible reach and power, and that all his fights have ended quickly. He believes Josh Parisian will try to strike with Despaigne and get knocked out. He also mentions a PrizePicks play on Despaigne's fight time under 4.75 minutes.

win by first round knockout; PrizePicks: fight time under 4.75 minutes
"give me desban first round knockout this fight should be hilarious for as long as it lasts which I don't think it lasts too long"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Robelis Despaigne

Cody is intrigued by Despaigne's physical attributes and knockout power but notes his lack of experience and questionable grappling. He thinks Despaigne will likely knock out Parisian early, but at -330, he's not confident enough to bet heavily.

"I guess I'll pick Rellis but he could be so bad like it's weird"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Robelis Despaigne

Daniel picks Despaigne via knockout, citing his athleticism, reach, and power. He notes Parisian is a bottom-of-the-barrel heavyweight and Despaigne is too athletic for him. However, he warns that if Parisian gets double underhooks and takes it past round one, Despaigne could gas out. He expects a quick knockout.

by knockout
"I'm gon go robless here via knockout"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Mar 4, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Josh Parisian

Despaigne has insane power and speed, but there is not enough film on him against legitimate competition. He was held up against the cage in his debut, and his takedown defense is untested. Parisian has good durability, forward pressure, and a grinding style that could wear on Despaigne. If Parisian can survive the first couple minutes of each round and get his cage grind going, he is live to win. I have no confidence in the chalky spot on Despaigne, so I lean Parisian by decision.

"I can't muster up the uh the the confidence to bet perisian either I do have to just by principal kind of just lean on the pran side here and pick him to win this matchup by being able to …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Josh Parisian

Paul thinks Despaigne is a fraud waiting to be exposed. He notes that Parisian is a big heavyweight who can take Despaigne down and grind on him. He believes if Parisian can survive the first round, he has a good chance to win.

"I'm gonna take Josh perisian and it'll be the PRP pick of the week"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Robelis Despaigne

The MMA Guru is extremely confident in Robelis Despaigne, mocking Josh Parisian's physique and conditioning. He notes Despaigne is an Olympic medalist in Taekwondo with a massive reach and athleticism, while Parisian is out of shape and has been finished by lower-level heavyweights. He predicts a TKO victory.

TKO
"I think Rob Ellis despain is going to mess up Josh perisian so badly ... I'm gonna go with him to win this fight TKO"
LOSS vs Martin Buday
Submission (kimura) R1 4:11 · UFC on ESPN: Luque vs. dos Anjos · Aug 12, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Martin Buday 0 26 of 61 42% 27 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
Josh Parisian 0 42 of 67 62% 62 of 91 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:56
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Martin Buday 0 26 of 61 42% 27 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
Josh Parisian 0 42 of 67 62% 62 of 91 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:56
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Martin Buday 26 of 61 42% 15 of 49 6 of 7 5 of 5 20 of 47 6 of 14 0 of 0
Josh Parisian 42 of 67 62% 35 of 60 7 of 7 0 of 0 28 of 49 14 of 18 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Martin Buday 26 of 61 42% 15 of 49 6 of 7 5 of 5 20 of 47 6 of 14 0 of 0
Josh Parisian 42 of 67 62% 35 of 60 7 of 7 0 of 0 28 of 49 14 of 18 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Martin Buday

Angelo picks Buday fairly confidently, noting Buday has power, solid footwork, and better cardio. He thinks Buday should be the better striker and have takedown defense to keep it standing. He expects a decision win and suggests looking at round lines, possibly over 2.5 rounds.

Over 2.5 rounds (if line drops)
"Martin should win this fight I'm fairly confident in him and this is likely a decision"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Aug 7, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Martin Buday

Big Brady picks Martin Buday to win by decision, but is very hesitant. He notes Buday's skills (brown belt in BJJ, good top game) but criticizes his game plan of holding opponents against the cage and not using takedowns. He points out that Buday has attempted zero takedowns in his three UFC fights. He believes Buday could easily win if he wrestles, but doubts he will. He calls the fight 'disgusting' and says he wants nothing to do with it.

"give me budai budai by decision but this is a fight that I really want nothing to do with I mean this is a disgusting fight"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Martin Buday

Cody picks Buday, expecting a boring decision. He notes Buday's style of clinching and controlling against the cage, and that Parisian has poor cardio and has been taken down easily. He thinks Buday will win by volume and control, and recommends the over 2.5 rounds and Buday by decision. He also mentions Buday over 56.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks.

Over 2.5 rounds (-125); Buday by decision (+165); Buday over 56.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks
"party Marty by volume by holding up against the cage maybe get some takedowns if he wants to"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Aug 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Josh Parisian

James sees value on Parisian at +180, calling Buday a 'cage push or bust' fighter who gassed against Jake Collier. He thinks Parisian might not gas as badly and the fight is closer than the odds suggest. However, he is not confident due to the volatility and may not bet it.

"I think Josh Parisian is value here... will I bet on him? That's different."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 10, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Martin Buday

Buday is on an 11-fight winning streak and wears on opponents in the clinch, taking them down and doing damage from top. Parisian is an average heavyweight with one speed and alternating wins and losses. Buday's hard-nosed approach and tight striking defense should allow him to pull away late and win by decision. However, the line at -200 is a bit wide as Parisian could have grappling success.

Buday by decision
"I fully expect budai to get his hand raised by decision in this matchup"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Martin Buday

Paul picks Buday, agreeing it will be a slow heavyweight fight. He notes Parisian's poor performances and that Buday is younger and more effective in the clinch. He thinks Buday by decision is likely and likes the over 2.5 rounds. He also mentions Buday over 56.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks.

Over 2.5 rounds; Buday by decision; Buday over 56.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks
"the official pick would be budai by decision but like it's gonna be super super ugly"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Martin Buday

The MMA Guru picks Martin Buday over Josh Parisian, stating that Parisian is dangerous but Buday has better conditioning, clinch work, and cardio for a heavyweight. He notes Buday's controversial win over Lukasz Brzeski and his performance against Jake Collier. He expects Buday to outwork Parisian against the cage and in the clinch, leading to a decision or late finish.

"I'm going with Tom Segura okay Martin bidet is gonna win this fight against Josh Parisian"
LOSS vs Jamal Pogues
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Blanchfield · Feb 18, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jamal Pogues 0 37 of 113 32% 51 of 137 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:12
Josh Parisian 0 33 of 60 55% 49 of 79 5 of 11 45% 0 0 5:49
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jamal Pogues 0 12 of 28 42% 15 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Josh Parisian 0 7 of 18 38% 13 of 25 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:54
2 Jamal Pogues 0 13 of 39 33% 17 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:29
Josh Parisian 0 8 of 14 57% 17 of 24 2 of 5 40% 0 0 1:20
3 Jamal Pogues 0 12 of 46 26% 19 of 56 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:43
Josh Parisian 0 18 of 28 64% 19 of 30 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:35
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jamal Pogues 37 of 113 32% 19 of 85 14 of 23 4 of 5 35 of 110 2 of 3 0 of 0
Josh Parisian 33 of 60 55% 29 of 56 3 of 3 1 of 1 20 of 47 9 of 9 4 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jamal Pogues 12 of 28 42% 7 of 20 3 of 6 2 of 2 11 of 27 1 of 1 0 of 0
Josh Parisian 7 of 18 38% 6 of 17 0 of 0 1 of 1 3 of 14 0 of 0 4 of 4
2 Jamal Pogues 13 of 39 33% 6 of 26 5 of 10 2 of 3 12 of 37 1 of 2 0 of 0
Josh Parisian 8 of 14 57% 8 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 10 4 of 4 0 of 0
3 Jamal Pogues 12 of 46 26% 6 of 39 6 of 7 0 of 0 12 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
Josh Parisian 18 of 28 64% 15 of 25 3 of 3 0 of 0 13 of 23 5 of 5 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Josh Parisian

Angelo picks Parisian, citing his volume striking and UFC experience. He notes Parisian set heavyweight significant strike records and has a grappling win over Alan Baudot. Angelo thinks Pogues is a decent but not powerful heavyweight who doesn't move his head. He believes Parisian's higher-level experience will be the difference, and the line movement favoring Pogues is surprising. He considers a Parisian by decision bet at plus odds.

Angelo mentions Parisian plus 3.5 at -110 and Parisian by decision at plus money as potential bets.
"I like Josh Parisian this matchup... I think parisian's gonna win this fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Jamal Pogues

Big Brady sees a clear path for Pogues via wrestling, as Parisian has terrible takedown defense and get-up game, as shown in the Dontale Mayes fight. He notes that Pogues didn't wrestle in his last fight, which is a concern, but if he does, he should dominate. He predicts a decision win, but warns against betting the -250 line.

Pogues by decision
"Jamal poke should win this fight I mean he has a clear path to Victory with the wrestling"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Feb 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jamal Pogues

Cody picks Pogues but doesn't like the -240 line for an unproven UFC debutant. He notes Pogues is young (27), has good cardio for a heavyweight, and has a wrestling advantage. However, he warns that Pogues' striking is mechanical and he's there to get countered. He also mentions Parisian's only good characteristic is being a bona fide heavyweight, and if Parisian gets top position, it's a big body to move off. He says it's a greasy heavyweight spot and he's not confident.

Cody mentions Pogues came in at 248 on Contender Series. He says he'll pick Pogues but won't lay -240.
"I don't like laying you know low level heavyweights I don't like Lane minus two four I probably won't lay minus 240 here I will be picking Pogues."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Feb 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Josh Parisian

Connor picks Parisian because he is bigger and can make the fight brutal. He thinks Pogues' gas tank may not hold up against Parisian's pressure, and Parisian's toughness and aggression could wear Pogues down. Connor notes that Pogues has not faced a fighter like Parisian who will crash into him repeatedly.

"I'll take Parisian. I think that this is a fight where the fact, you know, we talked about pogues looking decent in on the Contender series... Parisian is bigger. He's just bigger."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lean picked Feb 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jamal Pogues

Jacob picks Pogues but is not confident enough to bet. He thinks Pogues has a wrestling advantage and will be more active with his jab, outworking Parisian. However, he notes Pogues isn't a finisher and Parisian has a dog in him. Jacob expects a sloppy, close fight and might consider a live bet on Parisian if the fight is close in the third round.

"I'm gonna go with Jamal um just because I think he has a wrestling advantage."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jamal Pogues

Pogues has a strong grappling base and good cardio, which should overwhelm Parisian, who fades in deep waters. Parisian's striking is flashy but his gas tank is poor. Pogues can take him down and grind out a decision, or even finish late.

Pogues wins by decision
"I like Pogues here... I think he wins this fight via decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Feb 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jamal Pogues

Paul also picks Pogues but is hesitant. He notes Parisian's wrestling narrative is overblown, as he was taken down by Parker Porter and Dantale Maze. He says Pogues should have speed, technical striking, and cardio advantages. However, he acknowledges Parisian has a size advantage (20-25 pounds) and could use it against the cage. He says he loves betting underdogs but cannot get on board with Parisian.

Paul mentions Parisian's takedown defense is poor. He says he won't lay -240 but will pick Pogues.
"I will be picking Pogues because really outside of yeah holding him up against the cage using a little bit of size Advantage... I cannot cannot get on board playing Josh Parisian."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Feb 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jamal Pogues

The MMA Guru picks Jamal Pogues, though he wasn't impressed by his Contender Series performance. He notes Pogues has a long reach and somewhat crisp boxing, and is young enough to take his career seriously now. He criticizes Josh Parisian as a bottom-feeder heavyweight, but acknowledges Parisian is not complete garbage. He predicts a decision win in a great scrap.

"I think I'm going to take him here his boxing looked somewhat crisp and he's young and he reminds me the type of guy where if you give him the opportunity in the UFC starts really taking his career seriously"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jamal Pogues

Zane picks Pogues because he has faster, sharper hands and a good jab, and he showed the ability to increase his intensity late in fights. Parisian is a brawler who relies on toughness and chaos, but Pogues has a reach advantage and better technique. Zane notes that Parisian's only wins come when opponents fade, and Pogues has shown he can go the distance.

Pogues opened -170, now -246; Parisian opened +145, now +199. Zane says he doesn't understand the spread and thinks it should be a dead-even fight.
"I'll take pokes. He's got something resembling a prospects game. I mean, it's not good yet, but it's enough."
WIN vs Alan Baudot
TKO (punches) R2 3:04 · UFC on ESPN: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot · Jun 25, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Josh Parisian 0 42 of 68 61% 102 of 156 3 of 4 75% 0 0 3:09
Alan Baudot 1 49 of 75 65% 56 of 82 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:43
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Josh Parisian 0 25 of 41 60% 38 of 62 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:48
Alan Baudot 1 38 of 60 63% 45 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:41
2 Josh Parisian 0 17 of 27 62% 64 of 94 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:21
Alan Baudot 0 11 of 15 73% 11 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Josh Parisian 42 of 68 61% 27 of 53 11 of 11 4 of 4 22 of 39 2 of 4 18 of 25
Alan Baudot 49 of 75 65% 34 of 59 8 of 9 7 of 7 23 of 47 11 of 11 15 of 17
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Josh Parisian 25 of 41 60% 13 of 29 8 of 8 4 of 4 17 of 32 2 of 2 6 of 7
Alan Baudot 38 of 60 63% 27 of 48 5 of 6 6 of 6 17 of 37 6 of 6 15 of 17
2 Josh Parisian 17 of 27 62% 14 of 24 3 of 3 0 of 0 5 of 7 0 of 2 12 of 18
Alan Baudot 11 of 15 73% 7 of 11 3 of 3 1 of 1 6 of 10 5 of 5 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Josh Parisian

Angelo picks Josh Parisian, citing his volume and forward pressure. He notes Parisian has shown takedowns in the past and could use them against Baudot, who has solid takedown defense but is at a disadvantage on the ground. He acknowledges Baudot is more dangerous but believes Parisian's output and potential wrestling will get the win.

"i like him to have the volume pressure forward and potentially work in takedowns like he did against rock martinez in that win"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jun 21, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Alan Baudot

Big Brady picks Alan Baudot to win by decision, but with very low confidence. He calls it the '1-800 gambler fight of the week' and says nobody should bet on it. He was more impressed with Baudot's performance against Parker Porter (competitive) than Parisian's poor showings (sloppy, gasses early, 42% striking defense). He expects a sloppy, greasy heavyweight decision. He admits both fighters are not great.

"i'm going to take badou just because i was more impressed with them... i think he's less worse than a parisian and i think he does get it done by a sloppy greasy sweaty heavyweight decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Josh Parisian

Cody agrees with Paul, noting Baudot's lack of finishing power and Parisian's high output and durability. He thinks Parisian's pace will wear down Baudot as the fight goes on.

"give me josh parisian at that plus 100."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Josh Parisian

Paul picks the underdog Parisian, citing Baudot's lack of impressive wins and Parisian's durability and volume. He thinks Parisian can win by decision and notes Parisian by decision at +300 as a possible play.

Parisian by decision +300
"i'm gonna pick the the guy who's the underdog and as it stands right now josh parisian is the underdog"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Alan Baudot

The host picks Alan Baudot, calling Josh Parisian a 'disgraceful human' and noting Baudot is in shape and takes his career seriously. He expects Baudot to be patient on the feet, find takedowns, and pick Parisian apart for a decision win (30-27 or 29-28). He mentions Baudot trains at a good gym with Cyril Gane.

decision win prediction
"i'm going to go with adam bideaux"
LOSS vs Don'Tale Mayes
TKO (elbows) R3 3:26 · UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus · Dec 18, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Don'Tale Mayes 0 25 of 41 60% 117 of 147 6 of 8 75% 0 0 11:32
Josh Parisian 0 10 of 16 62% 24 of 33 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:21
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Don'Tale Mayes 0 6 of 14 42% 40 of 51 3 of 4 75% 0 0 4:05
Josh Parisian 0 3 of 6 50% 6 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
2 Don'Tale Mayes 0 13 of 15 86% 31 of 41 1 of 2 50% 0 0 4:27
Josh Parisian 0 2 of 2 100% 5 of 6 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:18
3 Don'Tale Mayes 0 6 of 12 50% 46 of 55 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:00
Josh Parisian 0 5 of 8 62% 13 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Don'Tale Mayes 25 of 41 60% 15 of 31 8 of 8 2 of 2 13 of 25 3 of 3 9 of 13
Josh Parisian 10 of 16 62% 7 of 11 1 of 3 2 of 2 6 of 11 4 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Don'Tale Mayes 6 of 14 42% 4 of 12 1 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 8 0 of 0 4 of 6
Josh Parisian 3 of 6 50% 3 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 4 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Don'Tale Mayes 13 of 15 86% 7 of 9 5 of 5 1 of 1 6 of 6 3 of 3 4 of 6
Josh Parisian 2 of 2 100% 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 2 2 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Don'Tale Mayes 6 of 12 50% 4 of 10 2 of 2 0 of 0 5 of 11 0 of 0 1 of 1
Josh Parisian 5 of 8 62% 4 of 5 1 of 3 0 of 0 2 of 5 3 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Dec 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Josh Parisian

Angelo picks Josh Parisian because he believes Parisian's chin will hold up against Mayes' power, and that Parisian has a slightly better gas tank and higher output. He notes that Parisian set the UFC significant strike record at heavyweight in his fight with Parker Porter, showing constant forward pressure. However, Angelo's biggest fear is a Mayes KO early, as Mayes has heavy hands. He thinks the odds are too wide in favor of Mayes and that this should be closer to a pick'em.

"I like josh to survive an early power pick up the pace and win a decision"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Dec 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Josh Parisian

Big Brady picks the underdog Josh Parisian, liking his volume and toughness despite poor striking defense. He notes Parisian's gas tank is not great but he fights through it. He expects a sloppy fight and predicts Parisian wins a volume-based decision. He admits no one can be confident in this low-level fight.

decision
"I'm actually gonna take the dog here in josh parisian to get the upset I like his volume the gas tank's not there but he's still able to fight through it and I think he's going to win a volume …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Dec 16, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Don'Tale Mayes

Cody slightly favors Mayes due to superior cardio and reach. He notes Mayes uses a good jab and stays on the outside, while Parisian gasses quickly. However, Cody doesn't like the -200 price and calls it a pass, suggesting live betting might be better.

"I gotta go with maze superior cardio cardio wins fights"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Dec 16, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Don'Tale Mayes

Daniel Levi picks Don'Tale Mayes to win, though he is not sure how. He acknowledges Mayes's physical gifts (6'6", 81-inch reach) and decent striking, but notes he underperforms and slows down. Levi is unimpressed with Josh Parisian, who absorbs too many strikes and has poor defense. He believes Mayes's youth and athleticism should prevail, and expects Mayes to land the harder shots and possibly get a finish. Levi warns that Parisian could win a decision if Mayes fades, but still picks Mayes.

Mayes by KO/TKO; fight doesn't go to decision
"Give me Don'Tale Mayes to come out here and win I'm not sure how but just give me Don'Tale as my pick."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lean picked Dec 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Josh Parisian

Jacob picks Josh Parisian but calls it a coin flip, expecting a sloppy fight. He notes that both fighters like to throw spinning attacks and that Parisian is slightly less sloppy with his hands higher. Jacob mentions that Mayes' hands are often low and he does wild spinning stuff. He doesn't feel great about the pick but leans Parisian.

"if i have to pick in this fight i'm gonna pick josh parisian i agree that the odds should be a pick em"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Dec 17, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Don'Tale Mayes

The host leans towards Mayes by decision, noting that Mayes is more mobile and can stick and move, while Parisian is slow and plods forward. He thinks the fight goes to decision and likes the 'fight goes to decision' prop at +105. He is not confident enough to lay -200 on Mayes moneyline.

fight goes to decision (+105)
"I like the fight goes to decision here plus 105. and in terms of picking aside man i think maze is the side here"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Dec 16, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Josh Parisian

Paul leans Parisian as a dog, citing his higher volume and pressure. He notes that both fighters gas, but Parisian throws more. Paul thinks it's a 'dogger pass' and would take the plus money if forced to bet.

"Plus 170 on josh briesen is it pretty no it's pretty ugly but uh that's that's the side that would take my money if I had to bet it"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Dec 13, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Don'Tale Mayes

The MMA Guru picks Don'Tale Mayes over Josh Parisian, though he admits both fighters are not very good. He cites Mayes' youth, power, reach advantage, and better athleticism. He notes Parisian has been disappointing recently and lost to Rook Martinez (though he got the win). He thinks Mayes is more technical and powerful on the feet.

"i'm gonna go with dontel mays here over josh parisian"
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: The Korean Zombie vs. Ige · Jun 19, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Josh Parisian 0 79 of 160 49% 100 of 186 1 of 7 14% 0 0 4:23
Roque Martinez 0 64 of 114 56% 245 of 309 0 of 0 --- 1 0 4:19
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Josh Parisian 0 29 of 59 49% 35 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Roque Martinez 0 26 of 46 56% 84 of 105 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:40
2 Josh Parisian 0 28 of 44 63% 37 of 54 1 of 6 16% 0 0 2:22
Roque Martinez 0 9 of 18 50% 82 of 99 0 of 0 --- 1 0 1:08
3 Josh Parisian 0 22 of 57 38% 28 of 64 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:53
Roque Martinez 0 29 of 50 58% 79 of 105 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:31
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Josh Parisian 79 of 160 49% 43 of 118 29 of 34 7 of 8 49 of 120 30 of 40 0 of 0
Roque Martinez 64 of 114 56% 48 of 98 15 of 15 1 of 1 39 of 84 25 of 30 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Josh Parisian 29 of 59 49% 12 of 42 13 of 13 4 of 4 20 of 49 9 of 10 0 of 0
Roque Martinez 26 of 46 56% 21 of 41 5 of 5 0 of 0 13 of 30 13 of 16 0 of 0
2 Josh Parisian 28 of 44 63% 17 of 29 9 of 12 2 of 3 10 of 18 18 of 26 0 of 0
Roque Martinez 9 of 18 50% 5 of 14 4 of 4 0 of 0 5 of 13 4 of 5 0 of 0
3 Josh Parisian 22 of 57 38% 14 of 47 7 of 9 1 of 1 19 of 53 3 of 4 0 of 0
Roque Martinez 29 of 50 58% 22 of 43 6 of 6 1 of 1 21 of 41 8 of 9 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 16, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Josh Parisian

Angelo picks Josh Parisian, citing his height and reach advantage, high volume, and improved conditioning. He thinks Parisian will pick Martinez apart at range and that Martinez's durability will prevent a finish, leading to a decision. He bet on the fight going to a decision at +145 and likes the over on strikes for both.

goes to a decision (+145, 1 unit); monkey knife fight: more more
"i have josh parisian as my pick."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jun 15, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Josh Parisian

Big Brady likes Parisian's volume and significant reach/height advantages, but is concerned about his cardio after gassing against Parker Porter. He thinks Parisian will land more shots and win a decision because Martinez is very durable and hard to finish.

win by decision
"I'll take josh parisian to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 16, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Josh Parisian

Cody picks Parisian by decision, noting Parisian's reach and volume advantage. He believes Martinez is durable but will be outpointed. Cody suggests the over 2.5 rounds or fight goes the distance as better plays, as both fighters lack finishing ability.

Parisian by decision +333; over 2.5 rounds +100; fight goes the distance +130
"i take prison by decision i really don't think he's putting away rogue martinez"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 18, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Josh Parisian

Daniel Levi picks Josh Parisian, noting that he is the bigger, more physical fighter with more skills. He thinks Parisian will take Martinez down and work on top. He acknowledges that Parisian lost to Parker Porter, but considers Porter a tough opponent. He believes Martinez is tough but lacks the skills to win at this level, and that Parisian will get his first UFC win.

"i'm gonna go parisian and get this one done my man"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jun 16, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Josh Parisian

Jacob also picks Josh Parisian, comparing his wild kicking style to a karate kid. He acknowledges the height advantage and thinks Parisian's volume will win the fight. He is slightly worried about Martinez's grappling but overall expects a sloppy fight that Parisian wins.

"i think josh wins the fight i think this is a sloppy mess of a fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jun 17, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Roque Martinez

The host picks Roque Martinez as an underdog, believing his durability, cardio, and pressure will overcome Josh Parisian, who tends to gas. He notes Martinez's leg kicks and boxing, and expects Parisian to fade after the first round. He predicts Martinez by decision, similar to the Parker Porter fight, and likes the over 1.5 rounds due to both fighters' durability. He is not putting hard-earned money on Martinez but sees value in the decision prop.

Martinez by decision at +350ish range; over 1.5 rounds at -185 (chalky but liked)
"i'm going rookie martinez by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 16, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Roque Martinez

Paul leans toward Martinez, citing his durability and toughness. He expects a sloppy heavyweight fight and is not confident. Paul bets over 1.5 rounds at -155, expecting the fight to last.

over 1.5 rounds -155
"give me rocky i guess if he had to put a gun to my head just i think you know i'll lean on durability toughness"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2021 (fight day)
Josh Parisian

The MMA Guru picks Josh Parisian to win by first-round TKO via spinning back fist and ground and pound. He believes Parisian will soften up Martinez's body with spinning back kicks, then land a spinning back fist to knock him down and finish with ground and pound against the cage. He expresses high confidence that Parisian will go for the spinning back fist.

spinning back fist KO, first round TKO
"i'm gonna go with josh parisian spinning back fist ko... first round tko for josh perisium"
LOSS vs Parker Porter
Decision (unanimous) (30–26, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Smith vs. Clark · Nov 28, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Parker Porter 0 114 of 226 50% 123 of 237 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:28
Josh Parisian 0 126 of 228 55% 164 of 275 2 of 4 50% 1 0 4:27
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Parker Porter 0 56 of 115 48% 61 of 122 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Josh Parisian 0 46 of 92 50% 57 of 104 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:10
2 Parker Porter 0 24 of 43 55% 27 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Josh Parisian 0 30 of 46 65% 54 of 78 1 of 1 100% 1 0 3:12
3 Parker Porter 0 34 of 68 50% 35 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:26
Josh Parisian 0 50 of 90 55% 53 of 93 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:05
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Parker Porter 114 of 226 50% 71 of 173 35 of 44 8 of 9 89 of 190 25 of 36 0 of 0
Josh Parisian 126 of 228 55% 90 of 190 16 of 18 20 of 20 105 of 198 20 of 27 1 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Parker Porter 56 of 115 48% 38 of 92 18 of 22 0 of 1 38 of 89 18 of 26 0 of 0
Josh Parisian 46 of 92 50% 33 of 77 10 of 12 3 of 3 33 of 77 13 of 15 0 of 0
2 Parker Porter 24 of 43 55% 11 of 30 9 of 9 4 of 4 19 of 37 5 of 6 0 of 0
Josh Parisian 30 of 46 65% 18 of 34 4 of 4 8 of 8 25 of 35 4 of 8 1 of 3
3 Parker Porter 34 of 68 50% 22 of 51 8 of 13 4 of 4 32 of 64 2 of 4 0 of 0
Josh Parisian 50 of 90 55% 39 of 79 2 of 2 9 of 9 47 of 86 3 of 4 0 of 0
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Martin Buday

Angelo picks Buday fairly confidently, noting Buday has power, solid footwork, and better cardio. He thinks Buday should be the better striker and have takedown defense to keep it standing. He expects a decision win and suggests looking at round lines, possibly over 2.5 rounds.

Over 2.5 rounds (if line drops)
"Martin should win this fight I'm fairly confident in him and this is likely a decision"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Aug 7, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Martin Buday

Big Brady picks Martin Buday to win by decision, but is very hesitant. He notes Buday's skills (brown belt in BJJ, good top game) but criticizes his game plan of holding opponents against the cage and not using takedowns. He points out that Buday has attempted zero takedowns in his three UFC fights. He believes Buday could easily win if he wrestles, but doubts he will. He calls the fight 'disgusting' and says he wants nothing to do with it.

"give me budai budai by decision but this is a fight that I really want nothing to do with I mean this is a disgusting fight"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Martin Buday

Cody picks Buday, expecting a boring decision. He notes Buday's style of clinching and controlling against the cage, and that Parisian has poor cardio and has been taken down easily. He thinks Buday will win by volume and control, and recommends the over 2.5 rounds and Buday by decision. He also mentions Buday over 56.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks.

Over 2.5 rounds (-125); Buday by decision (+165); Buday over 56.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks
"party Marty by volume by holding up against the cage maybe get some takedowns if he wants to"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Aug 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Josh Parisian

James sees value on Parisian at +180, calling Buday a 'cage push or bust' fighter who gassed against Jake Collier. He thinks Parisian might not gas as badly and the fight is closer than the odds suggest. However, he is not confident due to the volatility and may not bet it.

"I think Josh Parisian is value here... will I bet on him? That's different."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 10, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Martin Buday

Buday is on an 11-fight winning streak and wears on opponents in the clinch, taking them down and doing damage from top. Parisian is an average heavyweight with one speed and alternating wins and losses. Buday's hard-nosed approach and tight striking defense should allow him to pull away late and win by decision. However, the line at -200 is a bit wide as Parisian could have grappling success.

Buday by decision
"I fully expect budai to get his hand raised by decision in this matchup"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Martin Buday

Paul picks Buday, agreeing it will be a slow heavyweight fight. He notes Parisian's poor performances and that Buday is younger and more effective in the clinch. He thinks Buday by decision is likely and likes the over 2.5 rounds. He also mentions Buday over 56.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks.

Over 2.5 rounds; Buday by decision; Buday over 56.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks
"the official pick would be budai by decision but like it's gonna be super super ugly"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Martin Buday

The MMA Guru picks Martin Buday over Josh Parisian, stating that Parisian is dangerous but Buday has better conditioning, clinch work, and cardio for a heavyweight. He notes Buday's controversial win over Lukasz Brzeski and his performance against Jake Collier. He expects Buday to outwork Parisian against the cage and in the clinch, leading to a decision or late finish.

"I'm going with Tom Segura okay Martin bidet is gonna win this fight against Josh Parisian"