Career Averages - Martin Buday
Career Averages - Josh Parisian
Martin Buday
Josh Parisian
Martin Buday - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martin Buday | 0 | 41 of 86 | 47% | 92 of 150 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 2 | 2:51 |
| Marcus Buchecha | 0 | 24 of 60 | 40% | 80 of 140 | 1 of 11 | 9% | 0 | 1 | 5:05 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Martin Buday | 0 | 19 of 44 | 43% | 38 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:43 |
| Marcus Buchecha | 0 | 19 of 42 | 45% | 21 of 46 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:32 | |
| 2 | Martin Buday | 0 | 9 of 12 | 75% | 23 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:50 |
| Marcus Buchecha | 0 | 3 of 8 | 37% | 45 of 62 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:01 | |
| 3 | Martin Buday | 0 | 13 of 30 | 43% | 31 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 1:18 |
| Marcus Buchecha | 0 | 2 of 10 | 20% | 14 of 32 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 1:32 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martin Buday | 41 of 86 | 47% | 30 of 74 | 5 of 5 | 6 of 7 | 36 of 74 | 4 of 6 | 1 of 6 |
| Marcus Buchecha | 24 of 60 | 40% | 14 of 46 | 10 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 50 | 6 of 8 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Martin Buday | 19 of 44 | 43% | 14 of 38 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 15 of 38 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 1 |
| Marcus Buchecha | 19 of 42 | 45% | 10 of 31 | 9 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 34 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Martin Buday | 9 of 12 | 75% | 4 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 4 | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
| Marcus Buchecha | 3 of 8 | 37% | 2 of 6 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | |
| 3 | Martin Buday | 13 of 30 | 43% | 12 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 26 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 3 |
| Marcus Buchecha | 2 of 10 | 20% | 2 of 9 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Almeida (-210); Buday (+175)
Round 1
A couple weeks removed from the dramatic conclusion of the heavyweight decision streak, the promotion opens up its event in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, with big men kicking things off. The massive Buday (15-2, 6-1 UFC), who cuts a significant amount of weight to get to the 266-pound limit, will have some serious poundage in his favor when he faces Almeida (5-1, 0-0 UFC). The latter recently came over from One Championship, and he will be making a short-notice debut while looking to keep his 100% finish rate intact. The big fellas meet in the middle without a glove touch as referee Marc Goddard clocks them in, and it’s on with the show.
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Buday opts against the glove touch so he can sprint at his opponent, and he is quick to prepare himself to defend against the takedown. “Buchecha” tries for a single-leg takedown, and Buday’s sheer size allows him to squash Almeida and push him down to the mat. Buday backs off, smacks his foe’s lead leg a few times with kicks, and Goddard has the newcomer stand up. Buday jabs his way forward, and he stops another single in its tracks. Buday fights off a third by pushing Almeida to his back, landing a hammerfist or two before getting the heck out of dodge and not playing in the guard of the BJJ wiz. Goddard has Almeida stand up again, and the fighters both launch single punches at one another. Almeida scores an overhand right in an effort to set up a takedown, but he runs into a Slovakian stone wall once more.
Buday is unconcerned with the wrestling of his adversary, allowing him to open up with heavy punches including a right hand over the top that makes Almeida’s eyes go wide. Almeida shoots for a single, and Buday stops it with ease and dings his man with an uppercut. Almeida goes to the well with another single, and there is nothing to it as he gets clocked with a right hand on the break. Almeida wobbles back and tries to recover, even probing Buday with a right hand of his own, but Buday hits harder and more frequently. Buday gets right in Almeida’s face to slug with him, and Almeida wants nothing to do with mindless brawling. “Buchecha” circles around the outside to drive a knee to the midsection, and the two tie up and knee one another repeatedly. Almeida gets Buday’s attention while they trade, but his subsequent takedown is stood up without much effort. The round ends in the clinch.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Buday
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Buday
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Buday
Round 2
Buday ambles awkwardly out of his corner to engage without any interest in touching gloves, engaging quickly with the grappler with long punches and low kicks. Almeida bobs to fake takedowns, and Buday does not bite as he punches Almeida square in the face. His leg kick is starting to do some damage as well, as he mixes it in every so often. When “Buchecha” tosses out a naked front kick, he gets smacked with a right hand over the top. Almeida rushes forward for a single, and he decides to just tackle Buday to the floor without any further technique to it. He succeeds this time, where he lands in half guard and revs up his jitz engine. Almeida softens Buday up with punches and elbows to the midsection, and Buday holds onto Almeida’s face with both hands.
Buday keeps his hands on Almeida’s face to stop him from high-amplitude strikes or a submission setup, but Almeida still wants Buday’s left arm. Almeida grips hold of a two-on-one wrist lock to set up a kimura, but Buday twist and turns his way out of it. As Buday scrambles, he inadvertently gives up his back while on his knees, and Almeida pounces like a hungry animal to finish his hunt for his prey. Almeida opts to shell Buday on both sides of the head rather than going for a sub, and some of his blows land on the back of the head. Buday scoots his way to the fencing in hopes of standing, and he takes advantage of a mistake from the grappler by hurling Almeida to his back. Almeida appears to be fading fast, laying flat on his back taking deep breaths. Buday lays on top of him, hanging out in the guard away from submission danger so he can rattle off some ground-and-pound before the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Buday
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
Round 3
There is a glove touch between the heavyweights, and they start talking to one another. Buday reintroduces himself with punches and a calf kick, and Almeida has no immediate answer. Buday meanders forward, ignoring what comes his way so he can clip the newcomer with a right hand behind the ear. Almeida wobbles back, struggling to keep his composure, and Buday slowly walks him down and cracks him again with a left. Almeida shoots in for a takedown that is telegraphed, and he blows past his opponent. Buday loops a left hand up top, and it is one-and-done as he has to defend from a takedown. The Slovakian pushes his weight on the back of Almeida’s neck to hold him down, and he stops another shot and misses a knee by a matter of inches. Almeida is a dog with a bone looking for takedowns, but while the spirit is willing, the flesh is spongy and weak. Buday nails Almeida at any open opportunity when not shutting down the takedown, and he decides that it is time to wade into the guard at the midpoint of the round.
Buday lowers himself down and starts beating down the grappler with elbows, with Almeida nearly pulling guard to get him there. As Buday keeps striking, he gets a bit reckless and sits up, and this allows “Buchecha” to explode and swirl around to take Buday’s back. Buday turns, and in the process, Almeida gets both hooks in and secures back control. Buday flails and forces Almeida off of his back, allowing Almeida to stand up and hover behind him smacking him with short shots on the side of the head. Buday stands, and Almeida rolls to set up a crucifix but winds up on his back. Buday starts raining down Donkey Kong-esque punches while Almeida keeps his knee up as an additional blocking mechanism. The close, messy fight comes to a close as both big men fall to their back in exhaustion after three rounds of MMA without a stoppage.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almeida (29-28 Buday)
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Almeida (29-28 Almeida)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Almeida (29-28 Almeida)
The Official Result
Martin Buday def. Marcus Almeida via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Martin Buday, noting he is the more well-rounded fighter with decent wrestling, takedown defense, and striking. He considers Marcus Buchecha one-dimensional, a BJJ specialist, and believes Buday can out-technique him and win a boring decision. He is surprised Buday is the underdog and will not bet on this fight.
Big Brady picks Marcus Buchecha, citing his elite BJJ and the massive grappling gap. He notes Buchecha's striking is a work in progress but believes his takedowns and top control will be too much for Budai, who has poor defensive grappling. He predicts an early finish, likely by ground and pound or submission in round one.
Buday is expected to keep the fight upright, utilize his striking and cardio advantage, and break down Buchecha for a round three TKO. Buchecha is a high-level BJJ specialist but his wrestling is not good, so Buday should avoid the ground.
The MMA Guru picks Marcus Buchecha, citing his elite jiu-jitsu credentials as a multiple-time world champion and ADCC champion. He acknowledges Buchecha's MMA transition and toughness shown in the Rugrug fight, despite the loss. He believes Buchecha's takedown ability and top pressure will be too much for Martin Buday, who he calls a 'plotter' but notes Buday's solid UFC record. He predicts an early submission, specifically round one.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martin Buday | 0 | 58 of 107 | 54% | 142 of 211 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 5:06 |
| Uran Satybaldiev | 0 | 36 of 141 | 25% | 45 of 154 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:20 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Martin Buday | 0 | 17 of 39 | 43% | 41 of 69 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:10 |
| Uran Satybaldiev | 0 | 14 of 51 | 27% | 16 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Martin Buday | 0 | 28 of 44 | 63% | 44 of 64 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:24 |
| Uran Satybaldiev | 0 | 12 of 47 | 25% | 13 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Martin Buday | 0 | 13 of 24 | 54% | 57 of 78 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:32 |
| Uran Satybaldiev | 0 | 10 of 43 | 23% | 16 of 51 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:20 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martin Buday | 58 of 107 | 54% | 29 of 72 | 3 of 4 | 26 of 31 | 49 of 93 | 9 of 14 | 0 of 0 |
| Uran Satybaldiev | 36 of 141 | 25% | 19 of 120 | 6 of 6 | 11 of 15 | 32 of 137 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Martin Buday | 17 of 39 | 43% | 7 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 13 | 17 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Uran Satybaldiev | 14 of 51 | 27% | 6 of 39 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 10 | 13 of 50 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Martin Buday | 28 of 44 | 63% | 13 of 26 | 2 of 3 | 13 of 15 | 22 of 35 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| Uran Satybaldiev | 12 of 47 | 25% | 8 of 43 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 12 of 47 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Martin Buday | 13 of 24 | 54% | 9 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 10 of 19 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Uran Satybaldiev | 10 of 43 | 23% | 5 of 38 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 40 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo initially wanted to pick Martin Buday but changed his mind after rewatching Buday's fight against Andre Arlovski, where Buday struggled to outwork a 45-year-old. He notes Kennedy Nzechukwu has power and takedown defense, and despite being gun-shy at times, he can turn fights around. Angelo picks Kennedy but suggests a prop bet for better value due to the steep odds.
Big Brady picks Kennedy Nzechukwu despite acknowledging his inconsistency. He believes Martin Buday's game is limited to cage pushing and that Nzechukwu is the much better striker with more power and cardio. He expects a late finish, possibly a third-round KO.
Connor agrees with Zane, picking Nzechukwu. He shares concerns about Nzechukwu's mental fragility but thinks Buday is not the fighter to exploit it. Connor notes that Buday's record is unimpressive and he hasn't faced killers, while Nzechukwu is a good athlete for his size. He warns that Nzechukwu starts slow, which could allow Buday to get comfortable, but ultimately sees Nzechukwu's skills prevailing.
Buday will make the fight close by engaging in the clinch, but Nzechukwu's athleticism advantage and damage once back in space will cause problems. Nzechukwu is expected to win on the scorecards.
The Guru is confident in Kennedy Nzechukwu, mocking Martin Buday's poor physique and calling him out of shape. He believes Nzechukwu's reach and dynamism will be too much for Buday, and predicts a first-round TKO via big shots. He notes Buday's training with Tom Aspinall but doesn't think it will help.
Zane picks Nzechukwu, noting he is more technical, diverse, and athletic than Buday. He acknowledges Nzechukwu's confidence issues and tendency to get scared off by aggression, but believes Buday's slow, steady pressure won't overwhelm him. Zane points out that Buday is durable but not powerful, and Nzechukwu has many options to win, though he could still lose if Buday just leans on him.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martin Buday | 0 | 74 of 119 | 62% | 98 of 147 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 4:58 |
| Andrei Arlovski | 0 | 54 of 84 | 64% | 165 of 199 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:40 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Martin Buday | 0 | 14 of 25 | 56% | 16 of 28 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:48 |
| Andrei Arlovski | 0 | 8 of 21 | 38% | 55 of 69 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:18 | |
| 2 | Martin Buday | 0 | 27 of 46 | 58% | 32 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:09 |
| Andrei Arlovski | 0 | 22 of 32 | 68% | 45 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 | |
| 3 | Martin Buday | 0 | 33 of 48 | 68% | 50 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:01 |
| Andrei Arlovski | 0 | 24 of 31 | 77% | 65 of 75 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martin Buday | 74 of 119 | 62% | 34 of 69 | 26 of 33 | 14 of 17 | 54 of 97 | 20 of 22 | 0 of 0 |
| Andrei Arlovski | 54 of 84 | 64% | 24 of 51 | 25 of 27 | 5 of 6 | 23 of 48 | 31 of 36 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Martin Buday | 14 of 25 | 56% | 8 of 17 | 4 of 5 | 2 of 3 | 12 of 22 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Andrei Arlovski | 8 of 21 | 38% | 5 of 17 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 16 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Martin Buday | 27 of 46 | 58% | 14 of 29 | 8 of 12 | 5 of 5 | 19 of 37 | 8 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| Andrei Arlovski | 22 of 32 | 68% | 8 of 16 | 11 of 12 | 3 of 4 | 8 of 14 | 14 of 18 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Martin Buday | 33 of 48 | 68% | 12 of 23 | 14 of 16 | 7 of 9 | 23 of 38 | 10 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
| Andrei Arlovski | 24 of 31 | 77% | 11 of 18 | 13 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 18 | 13 of 13 | 0 of 0 |
Cody picks Arlovski, citing his experience and tendency to win close decisions. He notes that Buday has low output and poor wrestling, and that Arlovski is a fan favorite who often gets the nod in close fights. Cody believes Arlovski can outpoint Buday in a low-volume affair, but admits it's a risky pick.
Daniel thinks Buday will win the fight by pinning Arlovski against the fence and wearing him down with dirty boxing. However, he is hesitant to lay the price because similar prospects like Tanner Boser and Philipe Lins failed to finish Arlovski. He notes that Aspen Ladd did his job at a similar price, so he expects Buday to win but is not interested in the bet.
The host does not discuss this fight at all in the transcript. The entire podcast is focused on the Conor McGregor vs Michael Chandler fight, which is not on the provided fight card. Therefore, no pick is made for this fight.
The host picks Buday, expecting him to be pissed off after his last loss and to pressure Arlovski. He thinks Buday's clinch work and forward pressure will wear on Arlovski, and hopes Buday goes for takedowns to finish easily. He recommends Buday inside the distance at +150.
Paul leans toward Arlovski, noting that Buday has been out struck in recent fights and that Arlovski has a history of winning split decisions. He believes Arlovski's durability and experience will be key, and that Buday lacks the power to finish him. Paul expects a boring decision win for Arlovski.
The Guru picks Martin Buday over Andrei Arlovski. He notes Arlovski's age and recent KO losses. He likes Buday's pressure game plan and training with Tom Aspinall. He believes Buday will lean on Arlovski in the clinch and break him down with body shots.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shamil Gaziev | 0 | 8 of 20 | 40% | 13 of 26 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:20 |
| Martin Buday | 0 | 49 of 98 | 50% | 60 of 114 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:18 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shamil Gaziev | 0 | 7 of 17 | 41% | 12 of 23 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:20 |
| Martin Buday | 0 | 36 of 73 | 49% | 45 of 87 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:08 | |
| 2 | Shamil Gaziev | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Martin Buday | 0 | 13 of 25 | 52% | 15 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shamil Gaziev | 8 of 20 | 40% | 8 of 19 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 17 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Martin Buday | 49 of 98 | 50% | 35 of 79 | 14 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 35 of 73 | 5 of 10 | 9 of 15 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shamil Gaziev | 7 of 17 | 41% | 7 of 16 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 15 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Martin Buday | 36 of 73 | 49% | 27 of 59 | 9 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 23 of 49 | 4 of 9 | 9 of 15 | |
| 2 | Shamil Gaziev | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Martin Buday | 13 of 25 | 52% | 8 of 20 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 24 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Buday (-148), Gaziev (+124)
Round 1
The year-ending UFC pay-per-view is upon us, and with a record number of fights for the organization, it has been one heck of a 2023 calendar. Before fans receive a much-needed respite over the holidays, a dozen matchups of high intrigue will play out in Las Vegas. It may not start with 12 drummers drumming, but when the heavyweights open up the billing, the thumps of the two big men laying into one another might sound like percussion. Getting things started will be once-beaten, surging Buday (13-1, 4-0 UFC) and the undefeated Gaziev (11-0, 0-0 UFC). Despite their heft, the knockout rates of these burly gentlemen that will combine for 525 mighty pounds—not counting any weight cut—are not through the roof. Referee Mark Smith will nevertheless be on his A-game for the card opener, one that begins with a bump of large fists. Gaziev takes the center of the cage, and he sets up immediate counters when Buday lumbers towards him. Gaziev cuts off his foe with a two-hook combo, making Buday take a second look at coming in. Gaziev sticks out a sharp jab, and he flashes a mean grin while stalking after Buday. Gaziev marks up Buday’s nose with combinations, and he follows a few punches with a knee up the middle. Buday grabs hold of him after absorbing the flush knee to the breadbasket to slow down the surging offense of the UFC debutant. Gaziev pushes off, and he loads on power punches while further busting Buday up. Buday circles away, and he gets backed up to the fence and takes a knee that partially bounces off his guard. Buday escapes, and Gaziev walks him down and blasts him in the face with a shovel uppercut that makes Buday’s nose leak blood. Buday starts blinking and brings his hands up to cover his face, and he backs off in dire trouble. Smith recognizes that there is a nasty cut opened up either under his left eyebrow or on his eyelid, and he pauses the round and brings in the doctor to check on his condition. Buday is cleared to continue, and he thanks Smith by shooting in for a takedown. Gaziev steamrolls him over and pushes Buday to his back, where he proceeds to target the bloodied eye with punches and elbows. Gaziev moves to half guard, and he grinds his elbow mercilessly on Buday’s mouth and throat. Gaziev sits up and busts Buday in the face with a few left hands, and blood continues to leak out of Buday’s eye. Buday turns over as he continues to take punishment, and he fights to a knee but is wrenched down by the undefeated fighter. Gaziev drills a knee to the posterior, and when Buday stands up, Gaziev follows him with a knee on the jaw right before the bell sounds.
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Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gaziev
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Gaziev
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Gaziev
Round 2
Smith brings in the doctor to again take a look at Buday’s eye, who checks on Buday’s vision and condition. The physician informs Smith that Buday can still continue, and the second round begins. Gaziev wants to waste little time as he searches for a finish, marching Buday down and slugging him in the face with ruthless right hands and elbows. Buday shells up, his back against the cage wall, and Gaziev lays into him with powerful blows.
Smith implores Buday to fight back, and Gaziev drills his foe in the body with a right hand that makes Buday double over. Gaziev continues hurling punches as Buday wilts but does not go down, and Smith recognizes that Buday has nothing left to offer and waves off the match.
That makes it a perfect 12 up with none down for the debuting Gaziev, who has notched 11 of his 12 victories inside the distance.
The Official Result
Shamil Gaziev def. Martin Badys R2 0:56 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo picks Shamil Gaziev, impressed by his power, cardio, and toughness. He notes that Buday has faced weaker competition and that Gaziev's power is a different level. He has a quarter-unit bet on Gaziev at +155.
Big Brady picks Martin Buday to win by second-round TKO, favoring Buday's cardio and size. He notes Gaziev's early finish power but poor cardio, and believes if Buday survives the first round, he will break Gaziev in deep waters. Brady highlights Buday's brown belt in BJJ and volume striking (over 5 significant strikes per minute). He expects Buday to wear on Gaziev against the cage, take him down, and finish with ground and pound.
Cody picks Buday, arguing that Gaziev has poor cardio and will fade after the first round. He notes that Gaziev's wrestling is not elite and his striking is bad, while Buday has good cardio and can push a pace. Cody believes Buday will survive the early onslaught and take over in later rounds, winning by TKO or decision. He sees Buday as the safer pick.
Jeff Fox picks Shamil Gaziev by knockout, stating that he likes Gaziev's straight punches and the way he attacks. He believes Gaziev will land one to Martin Buday's big skull and finish him. The prop is at plus 250.
Lucrative James picks Shamil Gaziev as an underdog. He believes Gaziev has more finishing upside early, is more athletic, and hits harder. He criticizes Martin Buday's plodding style and porous striking defense, noting Buday has been cracked by lesser fighters. He says it's Gaziev or pass, and that laying minus 200 on Buday is not advisable.
The host picks Buday, praising his pace, pressure, durability, and cardio. He expects Buday to stuff Gaziev's early takedown attempts, then take over in rounds two and three, breaking Gaziev in the clinch and finding a late finish. He notes that Gaziev's cardio looks sketchy and that Buday will be the better striker and more durable. He predicts a third-round stoppage for Buday.
Paul picks Gaziev as an underdog, noting that Buday has struggled against bottom-level heavyweights and that Gaziev has a wrestling advantage. He acknowledges that Gaziev's cardio is a concern but believes if Gaziev can get early takedowns, he can control the fight. Paul is not fully confident but sees value at +135, especially since Buday has not faced many wrestlers.
The Guru picks Shamil Gaziev over Martin Buday, criticizing Buday as an out-of-shape heavyweight with no grappling or striking skills. He highlights Gaziev's regional credentials and finishing ability. He predicts Gaziev will get a takedown and submit Buday with an arm triangle in round one.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martin Buday | 0 | 26 of 61 | 42% | 27 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
| Josh Parisian | 0 | 42 of 67 | 62% | 62 of 91 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:56 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Martin Buday | 0 | 26 of 61 | 42% | 27 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
| Josh Parisian | 0 | 42 of 67 | 62% | 62 of 91 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:56 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martin Buday | 26 of 61 | 42% | 15 of 49 | 6 of 7 | 5 of 5 | 20 of 47 | 6 of 14 | 0 of 0 |
| Josh Parisian | 42 of 67 | 62% | 35 of 60 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 28 of 49 | 14 of 18 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Martin Buday | 26 of 61 | 42% | 15 of 49 | 6 of 7 | 5 of 5 | 20 of 47 | 6 of 14 | 0 of 0 |
| Josh Parisian | 42 of 67 | 62% | 35 of 60 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 28 of 49 | 14 of 18 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Buday fairly confidently, noting Buday has power, solid footwork, and better cardio. He thinks Buday should be the better striker and have takedown defense to keep it standing. He expects a decision win and suggests looking at round lines, possibly over 2.5 rounds.
Big Brady picks Martin Buday to win by decision, but is very hesitant. He notes Buday's skills (brown belt in BJJ, good top game) but criticizes his game plan of holding opponents against the cage and not using takedowns. He points out that Buday has attempted zero takedowns in his three UFC fights. He believes Buday could easily win if he wrestles, but doubts he will. He calls the fight 'disgusting' and says he wants nothing to do with it.
Cody picks Buday, expecting a boring decision. He notes Buday's style of clinching and controlling against the cage, and that Parisian has poor cardio and has been taken down easily. He thinks Buday will win by volume and control, and recommends the over 2.5 rounds and Buday by decision. He also mentions Buday over 56.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks.
James sees value on Parisian at +180, calling Buday a 'cage push or bust' fighter who gassed against Jake Collier. He thinks Parisian might not gas as badly and the fight is closer than the odds suggest. However, he is not confident due to the volatility and may not bet it.
Buday is on an 11-fight winning streak and wears on opponents in the clinch, taking them down and doing damage from top. Parisian is an average heavyweight with one speed and alternating wins and losses. Buday's hard-nosed approach and tight striking defense should allow him to pull away late and win by decision. However, the line at -200 is a bit wide as Parisian could have grappling success.
Paul picks Buday, agreeing it will be a slow heavyweight fight. He notes Parisian's poor performances and that Buday is younger and more effective in the clinch. He thinks Buday by decision is likely and likes the over 2.5 rounds. He also mentions Buday over 56.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks.
The MMA Guru picks Martin Buday over Josh Parisian, stating that Parisian is dangerous but Buday has better conditioning, clinch work, and cardio for a heavyweight. He notes Buday's controversial win over Lukasz Brzeski and his performance against Jake Collier. He expects Buday to outwork Parisian against the cage and in the clinch, leading to a decision or late finish.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martin Buday | 0 | 98 of 177 | 55% | 145 of 229 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:45 |
| Jake Collier | 0 | 94 of 207 | 45% | 107 of 226 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 4:31 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Martin Buday | 0 | 27 of 51 | 52% | 30 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:20 |
| Jake Collier | 0 | 45 of 99 | 45% | 48 of 107 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:57 | |
| 2 | Martin Buday | 0 | 38 of 65 | 58% | 51 of 79 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
| Jake Collier | 0 | 27 of 55 | 49% | 29 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:20 | |
| 3 | Martin Buday | 0 | 33 of 61 | 54% | 64 of 96 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:17 |
| Jake Collier | 0 | 22 of 53 | 41% | 30 of 62 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:14 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martin Buday | 98 of 177 | 55% | 66 of 142 | 24 of 27 | 8 of 8 | 72 of 143 | 19 of 27 | 7 of 7 |
| Jake Collier | 94 of 207 | 45% | 63 of 175 | 22 of 23 | 9 of 9 | 77 of 185 | 15 of 17 | 2 of 5 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Martin Buday | 27 of 51 | 52% | 20 of 43 | 2 of 3 | 5 of 5 | 26 of 49 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Jake Collier | 45 of 99 | 45% | 32 of 85 | 7 of 8 | 6 of 6 | 43 of 93 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 5 | |
| 2 | Martin Buday | 38 of 65 | 58% | 22 of 48 | 14 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 24 of 46 | 14 of 19 | 0 of 0 |
| Jake Collier | 27 of 55 | 49% | 20 of 48 | 6 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 18 of 46 | 9 of 9 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Martin Buday | 33 of 61 | 54% | 24 of 51 | 8 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 22 of 48 | 4 of 6 | 7 of 7 |
| Jake Collier | 22 of 53 | 41% | 11 of 42 | 9 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 16 of 46 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Cody picks Buday at plus money, noting that both fighters have poor recent performances. He believes if Buday uses his size and grappling to lean on Collier and push him against the cage, he can win. He is concerned about Collier's cardio after his last fight and thinks Buday's path to victory is through control and wearing Collier down.
Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Collier's path to victory is either instant or leads to slow disaster. He points out that Collier was a middleweight who moved up and lacks the fitness to carry the weight, whereas Buday is a solid heavyweight who can fight into shape. Connor emphasizes that Collier's best wins are against fighters who couldn't match his pace, but Buday can sustain his own pace.
Paul picks Collier, citing his volume and cardio advantage. He notes that Collier can land over 100 significant strikes and Buday has low volume. He predicts Collier wins by decision, as Buday is not likely to finish. He also mentions a prop on Buday under 65.5 significant strikes for PrizePicks.
Zane picks Buday because he has the durability and patience to weather Collier's early storm, and Collier historically fades after a strong start. He notes that Buday is a competent heavyweight who can sustain a patient pace, while Collier's lack of fitness and tendency to gas out make him unreliable. Zane is surprised the odds are even, as he sees Buday as a clear favorite.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martin Buday | 0 | 66 of 188 | 35% | 66 of 188 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Łukasz Brzeski | 0 | 118 of 273 | 43% | 124 of 280 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Martin Buday | 0 | 25 of 63 | 39% | 25 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Łukasz Brzeski | 0 | 41 of 104 | 39% | 47 of 111 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Martin Buday | 0 | 19 of 55 | 34% | 19 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Łukasz Brzeski | 0 | 43 of 89 | 48% | 43 of 89 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Martin Buday | 0 | 22 of 70 | 31% | 22 of 70 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Łukasz Brzeski | 0 | 34 of 80 | 42% | 34 of 80 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martin Buday | 66 of 188 | 35% | 50 of 169 | 3 of 6 | 13 of 13 | 65 of 187 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Łukasz Brzeski | 118 of 273 | 43% | 49 of 182 | 51 of 69 | 18 of 22 | 116 of 268 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Martin Buday | 25 of 63 | 39% | 20 of 56 | 0 of 2 | 5 of 5 | 24 of 62 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Łukasz Brzeski | 41 of 104 | 39% | 19 of 74 | 16 of 21 | 6 of 9 | 39 of 99 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Martin Buday | 19 of 55 | 34% | 14 of 50 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 4 | 19 of 55 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Łukasz Brzeski | 43 of 89 | 48% | 18 of 59 | 15 of 20 | 10 of 10 | 43 of 89 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Martin Buday | 22 of 70 | 31% | 16 of 63 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 4 | 22 of 70 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Łukasz Brzeski | 34 of 80 | 42% | 12 of 49 | 20 of 28 | 2 of 3 | 34 of 80 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Martin Buday due to his power, noting that Brzeski doesn't like getting hit and may cower. However, he doesn't like the odds at 2-to-1, so he won't bet the moneyline but will use Buday in knockout kings daily fantasy.
Big Brady picks Martin Buday to win by second-round finish. He notes that Brzeski has terrible cardio, gassing within the first two minutes, and is undersized. Buday uses his size well, pushing opponents against the cage and wearing them down. Brady expects Buday to eventually finish Brzeski, possibly by knockout or ground and pound.
Cody picks Martin Buday, citing his size advantage (30+ lbs) and clinch-heavy style. He notes Brzeski is smaller, may not be on PEDs anymore, and has a limited gas tank. Cody expects Buday to wear him down and finish late in the second or third round.
Daniel Levi picks Martin Buday, describing him as a real heavyweight who imposes his size and will. He notes that Buday weighs 265 pounds and uses brutal knees and elbows against the fence. In contrast, Brzeski is lighter and has a failed drug test, so Levi expects Buday to dominate.
The host likes Buday, mentioning he has power and volume. He also notes that Brzeski doesn't look good on the skills. He mentions a bet on Buday inside the distance at -110 and round two at +550.
Paul picks Martin Buday, agreeing with Cody's analysis. He notes the over 1.5 rounds line has moved to -175, but he prefers to look for an over 2.5 or fight goes to decision prop, as Buday tends to grind out wins late.
The host picks Martin Buday, citing a 35-pound weight advantage and expecting him to wear out Łukasz Brzeski against the cage for a third-round TKO. He notes Brzeski's positive steroid test and questions his technique, suggesting he looked better on regional shows than on the Contender Series.
Josh Parisian - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robelis Despaigne | 1 | 7 of 9 | 77% | 7 of 9 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Josh Parisian | 0 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Robelis Despaigne | 1 | 7 of 9 | 77% | 7 of 9 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Josh Parisian | 0 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robelis Despaigne | 7 of 9 | 77% | 7 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Josh Parisian | 2 of 5 | 40% | 1 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Robelis Despaigne | 7 of 9 | 77% | 7 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Josh Parisian | 2 of 5 | 40% | 1 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Robelis Despaigne despite it being his UFC debut, citing his Olympic taekwondo background, insane power, and 19-second cumulative knockout time in his last three fights. He acknowledges Parisian is durable and has experience, but believes Parisian lacks one-punch power to hurt Despaigne. He considers a high-risk parlay with Despaigne.
Big Brady picks Robelis Despaigne to win by first-round knockout in under 60 seconds. He notes Despaigne's incredible reach and power, and that all his fights have ended quickly. He believes Josh Parisian will try to strike with Despaigne and get knocked out. He also mentions a PrizePicks play on Despaigne's fight time under 4.75 minutes.
Cody is intrigued by Despaigne's physical attributes and knockout power but notes his lack of experience and questionable grappling. He thinks Despaigne will likely knock out Parisian early, but at -330, he's not confident enough to bet heavily.
Daniel picks Despaigne via knockout, citing his athleticism, reach, and power. He notes Parisian is a bottom-of-the-barrel heavyweight and Despaigne is too athletic for him. However, he warns that if Parisian gets double underhooks and takes it past round one, Despaigne could gas out. He expects a quick knockout.
Despaigne has insane power and speed, but there is not enough film on him against legitimate competition. He was held up against the cage in his debut, and his takedown defense is untested. Parisian has good durability, forward pressure, and a grinding style that could wear on Despaigne. If Parisian can survive the first couple minutes of each round and get his cage grind going, he is live to win. I have no confidence in the chalky spot on Despaigne, so I lean Parisian by decision.
Paul thinks Despaigne is a fraud waiting to be exposed. He notes that Parisian is a big heavyweight who can take Despaigne down and grind on him. He believes if Parisian can survive the first round, he has a good chance to win.
The MMA Guru is extremely confident in Robelis Despaigne, mocking Josh Parisian's physique and conditioning. He notes Despaigne is an Olympic medalist in Taekwondo with a massive reach and athleticism, while Parisian is out of shape and has been finished by lower-level heavyweights. He predicts a TKO victory.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martin Buday | 0 | 26 of 61 | 42% | 27 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
| Josh Parisian | 0 | 42 of 67 | 62% | 62 of 91 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:56 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Martin Buday | 0 | 26 of 61 | 42% | 27 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
| Josh Parisian | 0 | 42 of 67 | 62% | 62 of 91 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:56 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martin Buday | 26 of 61 | 42% | 15 of 49 | 6 of 7 | 5 of 5 | 20 of 47 | 6 of 14 | 0 of 0 |
| Josh Parisian | 42 of 67 | 62% | 35 of 60 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 28 of 49 | 14 of 18 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Martin Buday | 26 of 61 | 42% | 15 of 49 | 6 of 7 | 5 of 5 | 20 of 47 | 6 of 14 | 0 of 0 |
| Josh Parisian | 42 of 67 | 62% | 35 of 60 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 28 of 49 | 14 of 18 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Buday fairly confidently, noting Buday has power, solid footwork, and better cardio. He thinks Buday should be the better striker and have takedown defense to keep it standing. He expects a decision win and suggests looking at round lines, possibly over 2.5 rounds.
Big Brady picks Martin Buday to win by decision, but is very hesitant. He notes Buday's skills (brown belt in BJJ, good top game) but criticizes his game plan of holding opponents against the cage and not using takedowns. He points out that Buday has attempted zero takedowns in his three UFC fights. He believes Buday could easily win if he wrestles, but doubts he will. He calls the fight 'disgusting' and says he wants nothing to do with it.
Cody picks Buday, expecting a boring decision. He notes Buday's style of clinching and controlling against the cage, and that Parisian has poor cardio and has been taken down easily. He thinks Buday will win by volume and control, and recommends the over 2.5 rounds and Buday by decision. He also mentions Buday over 56.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks.
James sees value on Parisian at +180, calling Buday a 'cage push or bust' fighter who gassed against Jake Collier. He thinks Parisian might not gas as badly and the fight is closer than the odds suggest. However, he is not confident due to the volatility and may not bet it.
Buday is on an 11-fight winning streak and wears on opponents in the clinch, taking them down and doing damage from top. Parisian is an average heavyweight with one speed and alternating wins and losses. Buday's hard-nosed approach and tight striking defense should allow him to pull away late and win by decision. However, the line at -200 is a bit wide as Parisian could have grappling success.
Paul picks Buday, agreeing it will be a slow heavyweight fight. He notes Parisian's poor performances and that Buday is younger and more effective in the clinch. He thinks Buday by decision is likely and likes the over 2.5 rounds. He also mentions Buday over 56.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks.
The MMA Guru picks Martin Buday over Josh Parisian, stating that Parisian is dangerous but Buday has better conditioning, clinch work, and cardio for a heavyweight. He notes Buday's controversial win over Lukasz Brzeski and his performance against Jake Collier. He expects Buday to outwork Parisian against the cage and in the clinch, leading to a decision or late finish.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Pogues | 0 | 37 of 113 | 32% | 51 of 137 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:12 |
| Josh Parisian | 0 | 33 of 60 | 55% | 49 of 79 | 5 of 11 | 45% | 0 | 0 | 5:49 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jamal Pogues | 0 | 12 of 28 | 42% | 15 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Josh Parisian | 0 | 7 of 18 | 38% | 13 of 25 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:54 | |
| 2 | Jamal Pogues | 0 | 13 of 39 | 33% | 17 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:29 |
| Josh Parisian | 0 | 8 of 14 | 57% | 17 of 24 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 1:20 | |
| 3 | Jamal Pogues | 0 | 12 of 46 | 26% | 19 of 56 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:43 |
| Josh Parisian | 0 | 18 of 28 | 64% | 19 of 30 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 1:35 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Pogues | 37 of 113 | 32% | 19 of 85 | 14 of 23 | 4 of 5 | 35 of 110 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Josh Parisian | 33 of 60 | 55% | 29 of 56 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 20 of 47 | 9 of 9 | 4 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jamal Pogues | 12 of 28 | 42% | 7 of 20 | 3 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 11 of 27 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Josh Parisian | 7 of 18 | 38% | 6 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 | |
| 2 | Jamal Pogues | 13 of 39 | 33% | 6 of 26 | 5 of 10 | 2 of 3 | 12 of 37 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Josh Parisian | 8 of 14 | 57% | 8 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 10 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jamal Pogues | 12 of 46 | 26% | 6 of 39 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 46 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Josh Parisian | 18 of 28 | 64% | 15 of 25 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 23 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Parisian, citing his volume striking and UFC experience. He notes Parisian set heavyweight significant strike records and has a grappling win over Alan Baudot. Angelo thinks Pogues is a decent but not powerful heavyweight who doesn't move his head. He believes Parisian's higher-level experience will be the difference, and the line movement favoring Pogues is surprising. He considers a Parisian by decision bet at plus odds.
Big Brady sees a clear path for Pogues via wrestling, as Parisian has terrible takedown defense and get-up game, as shown in the Dontale Mayes fight. He notes that Pogues didn't wrestle in his last fight, which is a concern, but if he does, he should dominate. He predicts a decision win, but warns against betting the -250 line.
Cody picks Pogues but doesn't like the -240 line for an unproven UFC debutant. He notes Pogues is young (27), has good cardio for a heavyweight, and has a wrestling advantage. However, he warns that Pogues' striking is mechanical and he's there to get countered. He also mentions Parisian's only good characteristic is being a bona fide heavyweight, and if Parisian gets top position, it's a big body to move off. He says it's a greasy heavyweight spot and he's not confident.
Connor picks Parisian because he is bigger and can make the fight brutal. He thinks Pogues' gas tank may not hold up against Parisian's pressure, and Parisian's toughness and aggression could wear Pogues down. Connor notes that Pogues has not faced a fighter like Parisian who will crash into him repeatedly.
Jacob picks Pogues but is not confident enough to bet. He thinks Pogues has a wrestling advantage and will be more active with his jab, outworking Parisian. However, he notes Pogues isn't a finisher and Parisian has a dog in him. Jacob expects a sloppy, close fight and might consider a live bet on Parisian if the fight is close in the third round.
Pogues has a strong grappling base and good cardio, which should overwhelm Parisian, who fades in deep waters. Parisian's striking is flashy but his gas tank is poor. Pogues can take him down and grind out a decision, or even finish late.
Paul also picks Pogues but is hesitant. He notes Parisian's wrestling narrative is overblown, as he was taken down by Parker Porter and Dantale Maze. He says Pogues should have speed, technical striking, and cardio advantages. However, he acknowledges Parisian has a size advantage (20-25 pounds) and could use it against the cage. He says he loves betting underdogs but cannot get on board with Parisian.
The MMA Guru picks Jamal Pogues, though he wasn't impressed by his Contender Series performance. He notes Pogues has a long reach and somewhat crisp boxing, and is young enough to take his career seriously now. He criticizes Josh Parisian as a bottom-feeder heavyweight, but acknowledges Parisian is not complete garbage. He predicts a decision win in a great scrap.
Zane picks Pogues because he has faster, sharper hands and a good jab, and he showed the ability to increase his intensity late in fights. Parisian is a brawler who relies on toughness and chaos, but Pogues has a reach advantage and better technique. Zane notes that Parisian's only wins come when opponents fade, and Pogues has shown he can go the distance.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Parisian | 0 | 42 of 68 | 61% | 102 of 156 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 3:09 |
| Alan Baudot | 1 | 49 of 75 | 65% | 56 of 82 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:43 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Parisian | 0 | 25 of 41 | 60% | 38 of 62 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:48 |
| Alan Baudot | 1 | 38 of 60 | 63% | 45 of 67 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:41 | |
| 2 | Josh Parisian | 0 | 17 of 27 | 62% | 64 of 94 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:21 |
| Alan Baudot | 0 | 11 of 15 | 73% | 11 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Parisian | 42 of 68 | 61% | 27 of 53 | 11 of 11 | 4 of 4 | 22 of 39 | 2 of 4 | 18 of 25 |
| Alan Baudot | 49 of 75 | 65% | 34 of 59 | 8 of 9 | 7 of 7 | 23 of 47 | 11 of 11 | 15 of 17 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Parisian | 25 of 41 | 60% | 13 of 29 | 8 of 8 | 4 of 4 | 17 of 32 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 7 |
| Alan Baudot | 38 of 60 | 63% | 27 of 48 | 5 of 6 | 6 of 6 | 17 of 37 | 6 of 6 | 15 of 17 | |
| 2 | Josh Parisian | 17 of 27 | 62% | 14 of 24 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 2 | 12 of 18 |
| Alan Baudot | 11 of 15 | 73% | 7 of 11 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 10 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Josh Parisian, citing his volume and forward pressure. He notes Parisian has shown takedowns in the past and could use them against Baudot, who has solid takedown defense but is at a disadvantage on the ground. He acknowledges Baudot is more dangerous but believes Parisian's output and potential wrestling will get the win.
Big Brady picks Alan Baudot to win by decision, but with very low confidence. He calls it the '1-800 gambler fight of the week' and says nobody should bet on it. He was more impressed with Baudot's performance against Parker Porter (competitive) than Parisian's poor showings (sloppy, gasses early, 42% striking defense). He expects a sloppy, greasy heavyweight decision. He admits both fighters are not great.
Cody agrees with Paul, noting Baudot's lack of finishing power and Parisian's high output and durability. He thinks Parisian's pace will wear down Baudot as the fight goes on.
Paul picks the underdog Parisian, citing Baudot's lack of impressive wins and Parisian's durability and volume. He thinks Parisian can win by decision and notes Parisian by decision at +300 as a possible play.
The host picks Alan Baudot, calling Josh Parisian a 'disgraceful human' and noting Baudot is in shape and takes his career seriously. He expects Baudot to be patient on the feet, find takedowns, and pick Parisian apart for a decision win (30-27 or 29-28). He mentions Baudot trains at a good gym with Cyril Gane.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Don'Tale Mayes | 0 | 25 of 41 | 60% | 117 of 147 | 6 of 8 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 11:32 |
| Josh Parisian | 0 | 10 of 16 | 62% | 24 of 33 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:21 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Don'Tale Mayes | 0 | 6 of 14 | 42% | 40 of 51 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 4:05 |
| Josh Parisian | 0 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 | |
| 2 | Don'Tale Mayes | 0 | 13 of 15 | 86% | 31 of 41 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 4:27 |
| Josh Parisian | 0 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 5 of 6 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:18 | |
| 3 | Don'Tale Mayes | 0 | 6 of 12 | 50% | 46 of 55 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:00 |
| Josh Parisian | 0 | 5 of 8 | 62% | 13 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Don'Tale Mayes | 25 of 41 | 60% | 15 of 31 | 8 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 13 of 25 | 3 of 3 | 9 of 13 |
| Josh Parisian | 10 of 16 | 62% | 7 of 11 | 1 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 11 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Don'Tale Mayes | 6 of 14 | 42% | 4 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 6 |
| Josh Parisian | 3 of 6 | 50% | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Don'Tale Mayes | 13 of 15 | 86% | 7 of 9 | 5 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 6 |
| Josh Parisian | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Don'Tale Mayes | 6 of 12 | 50% | 4 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Josh Parisian | 5 of 8 | 62% | 4 of 5 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Josh Parisian because he believes Parisian's chin will hold up against Mayes' power, and that Parisian has a slightly better gas tank and higher output. He notes that Parisian set the UFC significant strike record at heavyweight in his fight with Parker Porter, showing constant forward pressure. However, Angelo's biggest fear is a Mayes KO early, as Mayes has heavy hands. He thinks the odds are too wide in favor of Mayes and that this should be closer to a pick'em.
Big Brady picks the underdog Josh Parisian, liking his volume and toughness despite poor striking defense. He notes Parisian's gas tank is not great but he fights through it. He expects a sloppy fight and predicts Parisian wins a volume-based decision. He admits no one can be confident in this low-level fight.
Cody slightly favors Mayes due to superior cardio and reach. He notes Mayes uses a good jab and stays on the outside, while Parisian gasses quickly. However, Cody doesn't like the -200 price and calls it a pass, suggesting live betting might be better.
Daniel Levi picks Don'Tale Mayes to win, though he is not sure how. He acknowledges Mayes's physical gifts (6'6", 81-inch reach) and decent striking, but notes he underperforms and slows down. Levi is unimpressed with Josh Parisian, who absorbs too many strikes and has poor defense. He believes Mayes's youth and athleticism should prevail, and expects Mayes to land the harder shots and possibly get a finish. Levi warns that Parisian could win a decision if Mayes fades, but still picks Mayes.
Jacob picks Josh Parisian but calls it a coin flip, expecting a sloppy fight. He notes that both fighters like to throw spinning attacks and that Parisian is slightly less sloppy with his hands higher. Jacob mentions that Mayes' hands are often low and he does wild spinning stuff. He doesn't feel great about the pick but leans Parisian.
The host leans towards Mayes by decision, noting that Mayes is more mobile and can stick and move, while Parisian is slow and plods forward. He thinks the fight goes to decision and likes the 'fight goes to decision' prop at +105. He is not confident enough to lay -200 on Mayes moneyline.
Paul leans Parisian as a dog, citing his higher volume and pressure. He notes that both fighters gas, but Parisian throws more. Paul thinks it's a 'dogger pass' and would take the plus money if forced to bet.
The MMA Guru picks Don'Tale Mayes over Josh Parisian, though he admits both fighters are not very good. He cites Mayes' youth, power, reach advantage, and better athleticism. He notes Parisian has been disappointing recently and lost to Rook Martinez (though he got the win). He thinks Mayes is more technical and powerful on the feet.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Parisian | 0 | 79 of 160 | 49% | 100 of 186 | 1 of 7 | 14% | 0 | 0 | 4:23 |
| Roque Martinez | 0 | 64 of 114 | 56% | 245 of 309 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 4:19 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Parisian | 0 | 29 of 59 | 49% | 35 of 68 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
| Roque Martinez | 0 | 26 of 46 | 56% | 84 of 105 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:40 | |
| 2 | Josh Parisian | 0 | 28 of 44 | 63% | 37 of 54 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 2:22 |
| Roque Martinez | 0 | 9 of 18 | 50% | 82 of 99 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 1:08 | |
| 3 | Josh Parisian | 0 | 22 of 57 | 38% | 28 of 64 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:53 |
| Roque Martinez | 0 | 29 of 50 | 58% | 79 of 105 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:31 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Parisian | 79 of 160 | 49% | 43 of 118 | 29 of 34 | 7 of 8 | 49 of 120 | 30 of 40 | 0 of 0 |
| Roque Martinez | 64 of 114 | 56% | 48 of 98 | 15 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 39 of 84 | 25 of 30 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Parisian | 29 of 59 | 49% | 12 of 42 | 13 of 13 | 4 of 4 | 20 of 49 | 9 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
| Roque Martinez | 26 of 46 | 56% | 21 of 41 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 30 | 13 of 16 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Josh Parisian | 28 of 44 | 63% | 17 of 29 | 9 of 12 | 2 of 3 | 10 of 18 | 18 of 26 | 0 of 0 |
| Roque Martinez | 9 of 18 | 50% | 5 of 14 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 13 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Josh Parisian | 22 of 57 | 38% | 14 of 47 | 7 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 19 of 53 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Roque Martinez | 29 of 50 | 58% | 22 of 43 | 6 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 21 of 41 | 8 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Josh Parisian, citing his height and reach advantage, high volume, and improved conditioning. He thinks Parisian will pick Martinez apart at range and that Martinez's durability will prevent a finish, leading to a decision. He bet on the fight going to a decision at +145 and likes the over on strikes for both.
Big Brady likes Parisian's volume and significant reach/height advantages, but is concerned about his cardio after gassing against Parker Porter. He thinks Parisian will land more shots and win a decision because Martinez is very durable and hard to finish.
Cody picks Parisian by decision, noting Parisian's reach and volume advantage. He believes Martinez is durable but will be outpointed. Cody suggests the over 2.5 rounds or fight goes the distance as better plays, as both fighters lack finishing ability.
Daniel Levi picks Josh Parisian, noting that he is the bigger, more physical fighter with more skills. He thinks Parisian will take Martinez down and work on top. He acknowledges that Parisian lost to Parker Porter, but considers Porter a tough opponent. He believes Martinez is tough but lacks the skills to win at this level, and that Parisian will get his first UFC win.
Jacob also picks Josh Parisian, comparing his wild kicking style to a karate kid. He acknowledges the height advantage and thinks Parisian's volume will win the fight. He is slightly worried about Martinez's grappling but overall expects a sloppy fight that Parisian wins.
The host picks Roque Martinez as an underdog, believing his durability, cardio, and pressure will overcome Josh Parisian, who tends to gas. He notes Martinez's leg kicks and boxing, and expects Parisian to fade after the first round. He predicts Martinez by decision, similar to the Parker Porter fight, and likes the over 1.5 rounds due to both fighters' durability. He is not putting hard-earned money on Martinez but sees value in the decision prop.
Paul leans toward Martinez, citing his durability and toughness. He expects a sloppy heavyweight fight and is not confident. Paul bets over 1.5 rounds at -155, expecting the fight to last.
The MMA Guru picks Josh Parisian to win by first-round TKO via spinning back fist and ground and pound. He believes Parisian will soften up Martinez's body with spinning back kicks, then land a spinning back fist to knock him down and finish with ground and pound against the cage. He expresses high confidence that Parisian will go for the spinning back fist.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parker Porter | 0 | 114 of 226 | 50% | 123 of 237 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:28 |
| Josh Parisian | 0 | 126 of 228 | 55% | 164 of 275 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 4:27 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Parker Porter | 0 | 56 of 115 | 48% | 61 of 122 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Josh Parisian | 0 | 46 of 92 | 50% | 57 of 104 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:10 | |
| 2 | Parker Porter | 0 | 24 of 43 | 55% | 27 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Josh Parisian | 0 | 30 of 46 | 65% | 54 of 78 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 3:12 | |
| 3 | Parker Porter | 0 | 34 of 68 | 50% | 35 of 69 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:26 |
| Josh Parisian | 0 | 50 of 90 | 55% | 53 of 93 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parker Porter | 114 of 226 | 50% | 71 of 173 | 35 of 44 | 8 of 9 | 89 of 190 | 25 of 36 | 0 of 0 |
| Josh Parisian | 126 of 228 | 55% | 90 of 190 | 16 of 18 | 20 of 20 | 105 of 198 | 20 of 27 | 1 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Parker Porter | 56 of 115 | 48% | 38 of 92 | 18 of 22 | 0 of 1 | 38 of 89 | 18 of 26 | 0 of 0 |
| Josh Parisian | 46 of 92 | 50% | 33 of 77 | 10 of 12 | 3 of 3 | 33 of 77 | 13 of 15 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Parker Porter | 24 of 43 | 55% | 11 of 30 | 9 of 9 | 4 of 4 | 19 of 37 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Josh Parisian | 30 of 46 | 65% | 18 of 34 | 4 of 4 | 8 of 8 | 25 of 35 | 4 of 8 | 1 of 3 | |
| 3 | Parker Porter | 34 of 68 | 50% | 22 of 51 | 8 of 13 | 4 of 4 | 32 of 64 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Josh Parisian | 50 of 90 | 55% | 39 of 79 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 9 | 47 of 86 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Expert Picks (7)
Angelo picks Buday fairly confidently, noting Buday has power, solid footwork, and better cardio. He thinks Buday should be the better striker and have takedown defense to keep it standing. He expects a decision win and suggests looking at round lines, possibly over 2.5 rounds.
Big Brady picks Martin Buday to win by decision, but is very hesitant. He notes Buday's skills (brown belt in BJJ, good top game) but criticizes his game plan of holding opponents against the cage and not using takedowns. He points out that Buday has attempted zero takedowns in his three UFC fights. He believes Buday could easily win if he wrestles, but doubts he will. He calls the fight 'disgusting' and says he wants nothing to do with it.
Cody picks Buday, expecting a boring decision. He notes Buday's style of clinching and controlling against the cage, and that Parisian has poor cardio and has been taken down easily. He thinks Buday will win by volume and control, and recommends the over 2.5 rounds and Buday by decision. He also mentions Buday over 56.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks.
James sees value on Parisian at +180, calling Buday a 'cage push or bust' fighter who gassed against Jake Collier. He thinks Parisian might not gas as badly and the fight is closer than the odds suggest. However, he is not confident due to the volatility and may not bet it.
Buday is on an 11-fight winning streak and wears on opponents in the clinch, taking them down and doing damage from top. Parisian is an average heavyweight with one speed and alternating wins and losses. Buday's hard-nosed approach and tight striking defense should allow him to pull away late and win by decision. However, the line at -200 is a bit wide as Parisian could have grappling success.
Paul picks Buday, agreeing it will be a slow heavyweight fight. He notes Parisian's poor performances and that Buday is younger and more effective in the clinch. He thinks Buday by decision is likely and likes the over 2.5 rounds. He also mentions Buday over 56.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks.
The MMA Guru picks Martin Buday over Josh Parisian, stating that Parisian is dangerous but Buday has better conditioning, clinch work, and cardio for a heavyweight. He notes Buday's controversial win over Lukasz Brzeski and his performance against Jake Collier. He expects Buday to outwork Parisian against the cage and in the clinch, leading to a decision or late finish.
265 too much for Marcus
Buday weighing in a 266