UFC on ESPN: Luque vs. dos Anjos · Aug 12, 2023 · Women's Strawweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC on ESPN: Luque vs. dos Anjos Next Fight
Age 24
Height 5' 3"
Reach 66.0"
Weight 115 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 33
Height 5' 5"
Reach 67.0"
Weight 115 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Iasmin Lucindo
3.22 SLpM
45.0% Str. Acc.
2.8 SApM
62.0% Str. Def.
2.28 TD Avg
55.0% TD Acc.
68.0% TD Def.
0.1 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Polyana Viana
2.74 SLpM
40.0% Str. Acc.
2.5 SApM
53.0% Str. Def.
0.75 TD Avg
33.0% TD Acc.
35.0% TD Def.
1.7 Sub. Avg
Iasmin Lucindo
Moneyline
FanDuel -188
KO/TKO
FanDuel +420
Submission
BetWay +1600
Decision
BetWay +165
Polyana Viana
Moneyline
Caesars +170
KO/TKO
BetRivers +950
Submission
BetRivers +425
Decision
BetMGM +600
Iasmin Lucindo - Fight History
WIN vs Angela Hill
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Dolidze vs. Hernandez · Aug 09, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Iasmin Lucindo 0 72 of 151 47% 100 of 187 3 of 7 42% 0 0 5:37
Angela Hill 0 64 of 110 58% 80 of 129 0 of 5 0% 1 0 1:19
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Iasmin Lucindo 0 27 of 68 39% 28 of 69 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:46
Angela Hill 0 25 of 46 54% 26 of 47 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:33
2 Iasmin Lucindo 0 28 of 50 56% 30 of 52 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:56
Angela Hill 0 31 of 54 57% 38 of 63 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:46
3 Iasmin Lucindo 0 17 of 33 51% 42 of 66 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:55
Angela Hill 0 8 of 10 80% 16 of 19 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Iasmin Lucindo 72 of 151 47% 56 of 128 12 of 19 4 of 4 57 of 130 11 of 17 4 of 4
Angela Hill 64 of 110 58% 42 of 84 19 of 23 3 of 3 52 of 92 12 of 18 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Iasmin Lucindo 27 of 68 39% 19 of 57 6 of 9 2 of 2 22 of 58 5 of 10 0 of 0
Angela Hill 25 of 46 54% 18 of 38 5 of 6 2 of 2 22 of 41 3 of 5 0 of 0
2 Iasmin Lucindo 28 of 50 56% 21 of 42 6 of 7 1 of 1 22 of 43 6 of 7 0 of 0
Angela Hill 31 of 54 57% 19 of 39 11 of 14 1 of 1 22 of 41 9 of 13 0 of 0
3 Iasmin Lucindo 17 of 33 51% 16 of 29 0 of 3 1 of 1 13 of 29 0 of 0 4 of 4
Angela Hill 8 of 10 80% 5 of 7 3 of 3 0 of 0 8 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Angela Hill vs. Iasmin Lucindo
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Lucindo (-190); Hill (+150)

Round 1
While the previous match had an age difference of eight years, this strawweight pairing may make UFC history as Lucindo (17-6, 4-2 UFC) is just about 17 years younger than ultra-active veteran Hill (18-14, 13-14 UFC). Someone with a mind for stats and figures should look into that. Taking responsibility of the match will be referee Chris Tognoni, who witnesses the “featured fight of the night” combatants think about bumping fists but ultimately not doing it.
Lucindo gets right in Hill’s face with short check hooks. Hill does not like them and considers clinching up, only for the younger woman to turn it against her and get a body lock from behind. Lucindo leaps onto Hill’s back, dragging her down from behind. Hill works right back up, fighting the hands clasped around her waist to she can break out of the position. Lucindo leans heavily on the elder stateswoman, and Hill trips her down for a second. When Lucindo climbs back up, Hill knees her in the face. They proceed to bang it out for a short spell until Hill elbows her way out, and Hill rushes back in behind her elbow strike. Hill dives down after a single, and Lucindo stands her up and just misses on a counter elbow. Hill scores, and Lucindo counters with a big left hook that makes Hill step back.
The Brazilian connects with a body kick right before Hill’s overhand right response lands, and the latter follows her punch with a front kick to the stomach. Lucindo sits down on her big right hand, getting Hill’s attention, and she follows with two punches down the pipe when Hill offers back a low kick. Lucindo crowds Hill and clubs her with multiple hooks, laying into the veteran with a series of punches that spur Hill into a takedown shot. Lucindo bullies “Overkill” to the fence and breaks off with an elbow, and she sways to avoid two quick punches up top. Lucindo brushes the midsection with her foot when spinning with a back kick, and her subsequent back fist fails. The momentum of the Brazilian allows her to tackle Hill to the floor, and when the horn sounds, she helps Hill back to her feet.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Lucindo
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Lucindo
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Lucindo

Round 2
The ladies do not need more than a second or two to engage in the second round, with Lucindo’s power the difference maker in their exchanges. Hill takes several punches and goes wild with a spinning wheel kick, turning to flow with a back fist then gripping hold of the younger woman’s neck to tighten up a guillotine choke while standing. Lucindo gets out of it, but not before taking an elbow on the dome. Lucindo does not back down, cracking Hill with clubbing hooks and forcing Hill to reel. Lucindo lands with two of three looping punches, and Hill sneaks in a right hand back. Lucindo pops Hill in the chops with her heavier left hand, and Hill has to clinch up to slow Lucindo down. Lucindo tries to muscle her way out, and only a Hill winging elbow allows Lucindo to get free.
The two women crash together throwing hands, and they bang heads together while doing so. This does not slow them, as Hill muscles Lucindo to the wall after landing strikes. Lucindo frees herself from the grip and leans into power punches. The Brazilian plants a spinning back kick from up close to the stomach, and she goes to the spin well with an elbow that Hill sees coming. Hill flicks out a few jabs, and she overswings and finds Lucindo ducking under to grab her from behind. Hill works her way to lean against the fencing, and Lucindo hangs on kneeing her until she kicks out Hill’s leg and wrenches her to the floor. Lucindo clings to her opponent’s back until the round wraps.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Lucindo
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Lucindo
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Lucindo

Round 3
The strawweights meet in the middle and throw hands, with Lucindo’s right driving Hill back out of the gate. Hill is quick to respond, but Lucindo’s fast-swinging hooks keep backing Hill off. Lucindo takes strikes on the chin and hurls back not only harder, but with more volume. Hill scoops up Lucindo’s legs suddenly to throw her to the floor, and Lucindo practically bounces off the mat to get to her feet. When Hill scores cleanly, Lucindo drills her square in the jaw and makes her take several steps back. Lucindo continues pressing forward, tackling the longtime vet to the floor and landing in side control. To remain in control, the Brazilian relocates into half guard. Hill sits up, and Lucindo elbows her in the back of the head. Hill keeps twisting in hopes of escaping,
Lucindo embraces the grind, wresting away any hopes of Hill staging a comeback. Hill tries to buck and kick off, and Lucindo puts her face on Hill’s face. Tognoni warns Lucindo for grinding her chin into Hill’s eye, which at one point in the sport’s history was legal as evidenced by Hall of Famer Mark Kerr’s past victory over Dan Bobish. Lucindo does not engage with much additional offense other than sporadic ground-and-pound to stave of Tognoni. He calls for them to do more, and Lucindo lashes out with elbows and punches as the match concludes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Lucindo (30-27 Lucindo)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Lucindo (30-27 Lucindo)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Lucindo (30-27 Lucindo)

The Official Result
Iasmin Lucindo def. Angela Hill via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-27, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Aug 3, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Angelo leans Iasmin Lucindo, thinking she will bully her way to a win with powerful strikes and gritty wrestling. He notes Angela Hill is a crafty veteran with good speed and volume but no power. However, Hill could win by staying on her bike and avoiding the clinch. Angelo advises not betting on this fight.

Advises not betting on this fight.
"I'm going to lean Eisman because I think she like literally will bully her way to a win."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Aug 6, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Angela Hill

Big Brady hesitantly picks Angela Hill, acknowledging she may be regressing but believes she still has more volume on the feet and improved takedown defense. He thinks the fight will be close and could go to a split decision. He is not betting on her, as he lacks confidence.

split decision
"I'll pick Hill with not a ton of confidence, but I'll pick her to win a very close decision."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Aug 7, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Angela Hill

Connor picks Angela Hill, citing her improved fight management and veteran savvy. He notes that Lucindo is aimless and struggled when faced with a fighter she had to respect (Amanda Lemos). Connor believes Hill's pressure, volume, and clinch work will be enough to win a close decision, though he acknowledges Lucindo's speed and power could swing rounds.

Odds mentioned: Lucindo opened -200, currently -200; Hill opened +170, currently +170.
"I think I'll take Angela Hill. I mean, I think either way it's going to be close."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Angela Hill

The host notes Lucindo struggles when she can't get takedowns, and Hill has shown defensive improvements in grappling. He believes Hill can stop takedowns or get back to her feet quickly, then use her striking advantage to outweigh Lucindo's control and win on the scorecards by landing more damage.

"We've seen Lucindo struggle when she can't get takedowns or be the one on top. And we've seen enough defensive improvements from Hill in the grappling realm that I think she can either stop the takedowns, get back to her …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Angela Hill

The MMA Guru picks Angela Hill as an upset, citing her volume striking and clinch work. He believes Lucindo can't finish Hill and that Hill's activity will win her a close decision. He notes Hill has been robbed before but expects her to get the nod this time.

"I think Angela Hill is going to win a close decision here. Maybe this is another upset."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Aug 7, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Zane leans toward Lucindo, arguing that Hill cannot put the fear in Lucindo that Lemos did, allowing Lucindo to be more proactive. He notes that Lucindo is faster and more dynamic than Hill's recent opponents, and that Hill's wins over similar fighters (Sosa, Pinheiro) were close. However, he admits it could easily be a split decision and that Hill's experience is a factor.

Odds mentioned: Lucindo opened -200, currently -200; Hill opened +170, currently +170.
"I just don't think that Angela Hill can put that fear in her. And so without that, I think she can be a lot more willing to just sit down and throw and do enough damage to scrape out a …"
LOSS vs Amanda Lemos
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · Mar 08, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Amanda Lemos 0 12 of 21 57% 30 of 42 3 of 5 60% 0 0 7:58
Iasmin Lucindo 0 4 of 16 25% 40 of 56 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Amanda Lemos 0 3 of 5 60% 8 of 10 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:40
Iasmin Lucindo 0 0 of 4 0% 11 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:47
2 Amanda Lemos 0 7 of 12 58% 10 of 16 1 of 3 33% 0 0 3:41
Iasmin Lucindo 0 0 of 3 0% 12 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:22
3 Amanda Lemos 0 2 of 4 50% 12 of 16 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:37
Iasmin Lucindo 0 4 of 9 44% 17 of 24 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:55
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Amanda Lemos 12 of 21 57% 8 of 16 2 of 3 2 of 2 7 of 14 1 of 1 4 of 6
Iasmin Lucindo 4 of 16 25% 2 of 12 2 of 3 0 of 1 1 of 13 2 of 2 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Amanda Lemos 3 of 5 60% 2 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 1 2 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 2
Iasmin Lucindo 0 of 4 0% 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Amanda Lemos 7 of 12 58% 4 of 8 2 of 3 1 of 1 3 of 7 1 of 1 3 of 4
Iasmin Lucindo 0 of 3 0% 0 of 2 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Amanda Lemos 2 of 4 50% 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Iasmin Lucindo 4 of 9 44% 2 of 7 2 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 6 2 of 2 1 of 1
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Amanda Lemos

Connor picks Lemos because she is a physical force who can hit hard and is strong in the clinch. He notes that Lucindo is raw and messy, relying on speed and counters, but Lemos has excellent timing and power. Connor worries about Lemos's tendency to wrestle, which could play into Lucindo's hands, but believes Lemos's strength and durability will carry her. He sees Lucindo as too young and raw for this step up.

Odds: Lemos opened at -130, now +130; Lucindo opened at -110, now -140. Connor is surprised Lucindo is favored.
"I think I have to pick Limo. I think so too. I mean, the prospect of staying at long range and waiting and hoping to time a man to lamos, yeah, is a fundamentally dangerous proposition."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Lucrative James picks Lucindo, citing her youth, grappling advantage, and multiple paths to victory. He notes Lemos is a better striker but has clear grappling deficiencies, having been submitted before. He thinks Lucindo can win by submission or decision through grappling control. He mentions he cashed on Lucindo by submission before and sees value in that prop.

Lucindo via submission at +550 (BetOnline); also decision win possible
"I have to side with Yasmin lendo here she's got better fight IQ she has more ways to win CU she can compete in the strike and if she stays at range but she can win via submiss and win …"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Amanda Lemos

Zane picks Lemos, agreeing that Lucindo is too raw and that Lemos's power and physicality will be too much. He notes that Lucindo's game is unstructured and she struggles to initiate, while Lemos is a fast starter with excellent timing. Zane also points out that Lucindo's wins over bigger names may be due to catching them at the right time, and Lemos is still a formidable athlete despite her age.

Odds: Lemos opened at -130, now +130; Lucindo opened at -110, now -140. Zane is surprised Lucindo is favored.
"I think this is actually a case where she is too young and raw for this fighter right now and she does not look like yeah, any of the fighters that have beat Amanda Lamos in the past several years."
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · Oct 05, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Iasmin Lucindo 0 33 of 99 33% 65 of 134 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:11
Marina Rodriguez 0 30 of 73 41% 55 of 104 3 of 4 75% 0 1 4:40
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Iasmin Lucindo 0 5 of 25 20% 18 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Marina Rodriguez 0 11 of 33 33% 20 of 42 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:06
2 Iasmin Lucindo 0 16 of 37 43% 21 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Marina Rodriguez 0 10 of 24 41% 24 of 39 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:08
3 Iasmin Lucindo 0 12 of 37 32% 26 of 54 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:05
Marina Rodriguez 0 9 of 16 56% 11 of 23 1 of 2 50% 0 1 1:26
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Iasmin Lucindo 33 of 99 33% 28 of 89 5 of 7 0 of 3 28 of 92 3 of 5 2 of 2
Marina Rodriguez 30 of 73 41% 19 of 56 9 of 13 2 of 4 27 of 68 1 of 3 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Iasmin Lucindo 5 of 25 20% 4 of 21 1 of 2 0 of 2 5 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marina Rodriguez 11 of 33 33% 4 of 21 5 of 8 2 of 4 10 of 31 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Iasmin Lucindo 16 of 37 43% 13 of 33 3 of 3 0 of 1 14 of 34 2 of 3 0 of 0
Marina Rodriguez 10 of 24 41% 6 of 20 4 of 4 0 of 0 10 of 23 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Iasmin Lucindo 12 of 37 32% 11 of 35 1 of 2 0 of 0 9 of 33 1 of 2 2 of 2
Marina Rodriguez 9 of 16 56% 9 of 15 0 of 1 0 of 0 7 of 14 0 of 0 2 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Sep 29, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Angelo picks Iasmin Lucindo, citing her youth, grappling, and pressure. He notes Marina Rodriguez has subpar takedown defense and a weak get-up game, which Lucindo can exploit. However, he is concerned about Lucindo's cardio at elevation, as she needs to grind for 15 minutes. He does not bet on this fight due to the elevation risk.

No bet due to elevation concerns
"I am on the eisan lucendo side... but the fact that I need her to be in phenomenal shape and grind for 15 minutes does worry me"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Big Brady picks Iasmin Lucindo, citing her youth (22 vs 37) and wrestling advantage. He notes that Rodriguez has poor takedown defense and struggles to get back up when taken down. He expects Lucindo to mix in takedowns and win a decision, though he acknowledges the line is a bit steep for someone unproven.

"I got to go lendo here minus 190 it is a little crazy like she is only 22 years old she hasn't proven a ton but I just think that you know she's getting Rodriguez here at the at the …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Cody picks Rodriguez as a dog, citing her experience and power. He questions Lucindo's level of competition and believes Rodriguez can keep the fight standing and land bigger shots. He expects Rodriguez to win by decision or late finish.

"I'll take the dog shot here"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Connor picks Lucindo despite acknowledging her technical flaws. He notes that Rodriguez has looked shell-shocked lately and may lose confidence if Lucindo's speed and early pressure put her behind. However, he admits Lucindo is not a complex striker and Rodriguez could take over if she finds her rhythm.

"I'm going to take the Lucendo pick. Yeah. I will too. Why not? Just take the chance."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Daniel Vreeland picks Iasmin Lucindo, citing her youth and takedown ability. He notes that Marina Rodriguez has always struggled with takedown defense, even in her prime, and at 37 it will be worse. Lucindo has landed eight takedowns in her last three fights. Vreeland expects Lucindo to use her wrestling to control the fight and win a decision.

"I think lucendo is going to play this SM she's a young veteran 22 years old"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

The host leans with veteran experience of Marina Rodriguez, believing she is the better striker. He thinks Lucindo does not control opponents on the mat well enough, forcing her to strike with the better striker and ultimately lose on the scorecards. He predicts Rodriguez by decision.

"I will have to lean with the veteran experience of Marina Rodriguez I think she's the better Striker here and I don't think lucendo does a good enough job in terms of controlling her opponents on the mat"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Paul leans toward Rodriguez, noting her experience against top competition. He thinks Lucindo is being overvalued and that Rodriguez's defensive grappling is underrated. He sees value at plus 150.

"plus 150 I think you could do a lot worse than Marina Rodriguez"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

The MMA Guru picks Marina Rodriguez over Iasmin Lucindo, despite acknowledging Lucindo's physical advantages. He believes Rodriguez has better performances against higher competition, citing wins over Michelle Waterson and a close split decision with Jessica Andrade. He notes Rodriguez's technique and composure will be key at altitude, and predicts a decision win.

"I'm going to go Marina Rodriguez better performances against better comp"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Zane also picks Lucindo, citing her speed and youth as advantages. He notes that Rodriguez has struggled recently and may not recover if Lucindo builds an early lead. However, he acknowledges that Lucindo's lack of range control and technical gaps could allow Rodriguez to take over.

"Might just take the speed pick for Lucendo just to go out there and surprise her and be young and improving."
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · May 04, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Iasmin Lucindo 0 42 of 111 37% 47 of 119 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 83 of 136 61% 91 of 144 2 of 6 33% 0 0 5:56
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Iasmin Lucindo 0 7 of 18 38% 8 of 19 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 25 of 36 69% 31 of 42 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:48
2 Iasmin Lucindo 0 26 of 61 42% 26 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 38 of 72 52% 38 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Iasmin Lucindo 0 9 of 32 28% 13 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 20 of 28 71% 22 of 30 1 of 3 33% 0 0 3:08
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Iasmin Lucindo 42 of 111 37% 17 of 73 15 of 22 10 of 16 40 of 108 2 of 3 0 of 0
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 83 of 136 61% 53 of 100 23 of 28 7 of 8 57 of 105 13 of 18 13 of 13
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Iasmin Lucindo 7 of 18 38% 4 of 13 1 of 1 2 of 4 5 of 16 2 of 2 0 of 0
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 25 of 36 69% 18 of 28 6 of 7 1 of 1 9 of 17 9 of 12 7 of 7
2 Iasmin Lucindo 26 of 61 42% 9 of 38 11 of 13 6 of 10 26 of 61 0 of 0 0 of 0
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 38 of 72 52% 23 of 53 13 of 16 2 of 3 37 of 71 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Iasmin Lucindo 9 of 32 28% 4 of 22 3 of 8 2 of 2 9 of 31 0 of 1 0 of 0
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 20 of 28 71% 12 of 19 4 of 5 4 of 4 11 of 17 3 of 5 6 of 6
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Apr 28, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Angelo picks Lucindo due to her youth and grappling advantage, but warns the odds are too rich. He notes that if Lucindo can't get takedowns, she's clueless on the feet and Kowalkiewicz could run away with it. He advises caution.

Angelo says 'the minus 330 odds they're just a little too rich for my blood'
"eisan lucendo is the pick but please be careful"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Big Brady views Lucindo as a big step up in competition for Kowalkiewicz. He believes Lucindo is better everywhere, with power and takedown ability. He expects Lucindo to win a decision, controlling the fight wherever it goes.

"I'm going to go decision for Lucindo."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Cody picks Lucindo, citing her youth, speed, wrestling advantage, and submission win. He notes Kowalkiewicz's recent wins are over lower-level competition and she's 38. Cody expects Lucindo to mix takedowns and win.

"I think lucendo can win on the feet but yeah mix in those takedowns..."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Daniel Vreeland picks Kowalkiewicz by decision, citing her experience, volume striking, durability, and strength of schedule. He notes that Lucindo is young and talented but has never faced someone with Kowalkiewicz's level. He mentions Kowalkiewicz's recent four-fight win streak and improved confidence. He considers the decision prop as a potential value play.

Kowalkiewicz by decision
"I'm gonna go out on a limb I'm not confident but I'mma pick kolina kovak kavich"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 3, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Lucindo is a 22-year-old at minus-400 odds, but stylistically she should be able to drag the fight into her realm with grappling and heavy top pressure. Kowalkiewicz has the striking advantage, but Lucindo has a great chin and ability to crash the pocket and change levels. Lucindo grinds out a decision win.

minus-400 odds
"look for lucino to utilize her grappling to grind out kovok kavich over 15 minutes to get her hand raised by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Paul picks Lucindo, emphasizing her speed, power, and wrestling. He notes Kowalkiewicz is on a four-fight win streak but against weak opposition, and her takedown defense is suspect. Paul sees Lucindo as the future and expects her to win.

"Gotta go Lucindo... young hot Brazilian prospect in Brazil who's got legitimate skills..."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

The MMA Guru picks Iasmin Lucindo, citing her youth (22) and power advantage over the 38-year-old Kowalkiewicz. He notes Lucindo's win over Poana Viana and her ability to inflict damage, while questioning Kowalkiewicz's recent level of competition. He believes Lucindo's physicality and aggression will be decisive.

"Yasmin lendo wins"
WIN vs Polyana Viana
Submission (arm-triangle choke) R2 3:42 · UFC on ESPN: Luque vs. dos Anjos · Aug 12, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Iasmin Lucindo 0 10 of 25 40% 41 of 68 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:58
Polyana Viana 0 10 of 24 41% 31 of 48 2 of 2 100% 1 0 3:13
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Iasmin Lucindo 0 6 of 12 50% 26 of 43 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:58
Polyana Viana 0 6 of 12 50% 17 of 24 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:21
2 Iasmin Lucindo 0 4 of 13 30% 15 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Polyana Viana 0 4 of 12 33% 14 of 24 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:52
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Iasmin Lucindo 10 of 25 40% 2 of 15 4 of 6 4 of 4 10 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
Polyana Viana 10 of 24 41% 5 of 18 4 of 5 1 of 1 9 of 21 0 of 0 1 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Iasmin Lucindo 6 of 12 50% 2 of 8 2 of 2 2 of 2 6 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Polyana Viana 6 of 12 50% 3 of 9 2 of 2 1 of 1 5 of 9 0 of 0 1 of 3
2 Iasmin Lucindo 4 of 13 30% 0 of 7 2 of 4 2 of 2 4 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Polyana Viana 4 of 12 33% 2 of 9 2 of 3 0 of 0 4 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Polyana Viana vs. Iasmin Lucindo
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Lucindo (-198), Viana (+164)

Round 1
Multiple fighters on this billing celebrate 100% finish rates, and Brazilian Viana (13-5, 4-4 UFC) is one of them. In fact, she has landed 12 of her 13 victories in the first round, with her latest a minute and change into Round 2. This likely means that youthful countrywoman Lucindo (14-5, 1-1 UFC) will need to be on her guard and not fall into any early traps if she hopes to put herself on a win streak. Standing by will be referee Chris Tognoni, and the bout opens up as the strawweight clap hands. Viana leads off with a kick that whizzes past the target, and Lucindo counters with a clubbing left hand that staggers Viana briefly. Viana gathers her thoughts and whips down a leg kick, and she partially checks one that eventually comes back her way. Viana scores a low kick and a punch, and she decks Lucindo in the face with her shin. Lucindo tries to punch back, and Viana closes in and grabs hold of her. Viana looks for a takedown, and she slugs Lucindo in the face a few times before dragging her down to the mat violently. Lucindo closes up her guard to try to stall things out, and Viana stays heavily pressed to her to keep her otherwise grounded. Tognoni asks for Viana to do more than sit there, and Viana does not improve her position or attack with anything else. Tognoni once again tells Viana to do something, and Lucindo is clinging tightly to shut down anything. Tognoni stands them up, and Viana helps her opponent to her feet and then offers a glove touch. Lucindo spins with a back kick that grazes off the side, and she misses with a back fist and ends up getting her leg grabbed in the air. Viana looks for a level change, but it is Lucindo who ends up tripping her up and throwing “Dama de Ferro” down to the mat. Viana hits her back and ignores light, frustrating punches bopping her on the side of the head. Viana turns to her side to potentially escape, and Tognoni now asks Lucindo to work. Lucindo postures up with a few hammerfists, and Viana kicks her off right before the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Lucindo
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Lucindo
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Lucindo

Round 2
The strawweight bump fists together to start off the second stanza, and after a lull, Lucindo springs into action with a head kick and spinning back kick. Lucindo strings together a right and a left, and she hurts Viana. “Dama de Ferro” bounces off the cage wall and shakes out any cobwebs, and Lucindo does not give her chase or pressure her one iota. Instead, Lucindo lets Viana back in the fight, as she slowly works her way forward and tosses out a blocked overhand right. Lucindo spins with a kick that ricochets off the guard, and she tries to boot the ribs only to have that blocked as well. Lucindo drills Viana with a fierce overhand right, and Viana wobbles but does not fall down. Lucindo does not follow it with anything, allowing Viana to shake it off and spin at her with a back fist and keep turning into a body kick. Lucindo meets her in the middle and tackles her to the ground, where she plops on top in half guard. Lucindo smothers and grinds without the occasional short punch. Viana has no offense of her own, prompting Tognoni to tell Lucindo to do something.
Lucindo looks to pass over to three-quarter mount, and she suddenly attacks with an arm-triangle choke. Jumping straight over to the side, the submission is complete and Viana has nothing left to offer. One single tap comes from Viana, and Tognoni recognizes it and pulls the two apart.
For the first time since 2019, Lucindo forced an opponent to tap out, doing so over a woman in Viana that typically is the one submitting others.

The Official Result
Iasmin Lucindo def. Polyana Viana R2 3:42 via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Angelo picks Lucindo, trusting her takedown ability and top pressure. He notes Viana is a BJJ threat but Lucindo's defense should hold up. He expects a decision win.

"I think this is an Eisman lucindo fight all day"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Aug 7, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Big Brady picks Iasmin Lucindo to win by decision, but hates the pick. He notes Lucindo's striking advantage and ability to win minutes, but fears Viana's submission threat, especially the armbar from guard. He says there are two outcomes: Lucindo by decision or Viana by submission. He chooses Lucindo because she has more paths to victory, but will not bet the fight.

"give me a Lucinda by decision I I hate it um but it's got to be the pick right"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Cody picks Lucindo, praising her scrappy style, speed, cardio, and volume. He criticizes Viana's inconsistency and inability to get takedowns against good competition. He thinks Lucindo's strength will prevent takedowns and that she will outwork Viana on the feet. He acknowledges the risk in women's MMA but is confident Lucindo gets the job done.

Lucindo under 2 takedowns on PrizePicks
"Yasmine lucindo to get the job done"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Aug 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

James picks Lucindo, believing she is a good fighter with strong ground skills. He thinks Lucindo's jiu-jitsu is better than Viana's and that she can even submit Viana. He notes Viana's only path to victory is on the ground, but Lucindo is likely better there. James sees value on Lucindo at the current odds, thinking she should be a bigger favorite.

"I think Lucindo's value here... I don't think she should be worse than minus 250 in this spot."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Aug 10, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Lucindo is young but has good training partners and experience. Viana is an aggressive BJJ black belt who finishes early or fades. Lucindo should be able to use Viana's recklessness against her with takedowns and forward pressure to win a decision. It's a close fight, and a value shot on Viana is not bad, but Lucindo is cleaner.

Lucindo by decision
"I still think that lucindo is clean enough to win this fight over 50 minutes and get her hand raised"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Aug 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Polyana Viana

Paul picks Viana by submission or inside the distance, citing the armbar from guard as a real threat. He thinks Lucindo might be hesitant to take Viana down due to her submission skills, and if the fight goes to the ground, Viana has a clear advantage. However, he admits he's not confident and may not bet it, as he understands Cody's points about Lucindo's volume and strength.

Viana by submission or inside the distance; mentions armbar from guard
"Viana by sub or Fiona inside the distance would be my official pick but I don't know if I'm gonna actually bet it"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

The MMA Guru initially considered Polyana Viana but switched to Iasmin Lucindo, noting Lucindo's better competition and ability to go three rounds. He mentions Lucindo's wins over Brogan Walker and Yasmine Uruguay, and her experience against Sarah Frota. He believes most people are picking Viana incorrectly and that Lucindo will win.

"I'm going with Yasmine Lucindo over polyana Viana here"
WIN vs Brogan Walker
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. Blaydes · Apr 22, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Iasmin Lucindo 0 53 of 118 44% 57 of 123 4 of 5 80% 0 0 0:46
Brogan Walker 0 29 of 145 20% 31 of 149 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Iasmin Lucindo 0 17 of 43 39% 17 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Brogan Walker 0 8 of 50 16% 8 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Iasmin Lucindo 0 11 of 29 37% 15 of 34 2 of 3 66% 0 0 0:44
Brogan Walker 0 12 of 42 28% 14 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:01
3 Iasmin Lucindo 0 25 of 46 54% 25 of 46 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:02
Brogan Walker 0 9 of 53 16% 9 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Iasmin Lucindo 53 of 118 44% 33 of 93 19 of 23 1 of 2 51 of 115 2 of 2 0 of 1
Brogan Walker 29 of 145 20% 6 of 99 13 of 22 10 of 24 22 of 137 7 of 8 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Iasmin Lucindo 17 of 43 39% 13 of 37 4 of 5 0 of 1 16 of 42 1 of 1 0 of 0
Brogan Walker 8 of 50 16% 1 of 33 3 of 6 4 of 11 7 of 48 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Iasmin Lucindo 11 of 29 37% 7 of 24 3 of 4 1 of 1 10 of 27 1 of 1 0 of 1
Brogan Walker 12 of 42 28% 2 of 27 6 of 7 4 of 8 8 of 38 4 of 4 0 of 0
3 Iasmin Lucindo 25 of 46 54% 13 of 32 12 of 14 0 of 0 25 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
Brogan Walker 9 of 53 16% 3 of 39 4 of 9 2 of 5 7 of 51 2 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 16, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Angelo picks Iasmin Lucindo confidently, based on his notes from Brogan Walker's last fight where she showed awful takedown defense. He believes Lucindo will get takedowns and dominate on the ground, similar to what Juliana Miller did. He notes Lucindo struggled in her last fight but that was a tougher matchup. He is waiting for props to drop, possibly betting on under 2.5 rounds.

Waiting for props, possibly under 2.5 rounds.
"Eisman's definitely the pick a hundred percent the pick she should beat the absolute piss out of Brogan Walker."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 18, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Big Brady picks Iasmin Lucindo to win by second-round TKO. He notes that Lucindo is a 21-year-old prospect with good grappling and ground-and-pound, and that Brogan Walker showed zero takedown defense in her last fight against Juliana Miller, who dominated her. Brady expects Lucindo to take Walker down, beat her up, and finish her on top. He has a bad feeling because of the young age and big favorite status, but still picks Lucindo.

second round TKO
"I'm gonna take lucianu to get the first I'll say second round second round TKO"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 19, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Cody picks Lucindo despite the high price, using logic over the 'Pac-Man theory' of backing big underdogs. He notes Lucindo is young (20), fast, strong, and aggressive, with a cast-iron chin. He criticizes Brogan Walker as slow and flat-footed, with poor defense. Cody believes Lucindo will land power shots and possibly get a second-round stoppage. However, he admits he won't bet this fight.

"Lucinda's the pick but yeah come Saturday night you know what's gonna happen I know what's gonna happen and there's nothing I can do about it"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Apr 20, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Brogan Walker

Connor picks Brogan Walker (referred to as 'cash aware' in transcript), reasoning that she is a disciplined puncher who has improved her striking. He notes that Lucindo (Silva) has good submissions off her back but rarely initiates takedowns, and that Walker's pressure will likely put Lucindo on the mat. Connor trusts Walker to land the punch that hurts Lucindo over a Hail Mary submission.

"I'll pick cash aware. I don't know. I'll pick the person that I trust to land the punch that hurts somebody over the get the submit."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 20, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Connor picks Lucindo, emphasizing that Walker's fight against Miller showed she is unwilling to engage in striking and has poor balance. He notes that Lucindo is aggressive, hits hard, and makes adjustments, as seen in her fight against a tough opponent. He also points out that Walker's only path is a takedown and grind, but she lacks the coordination to do so.

"I think Brogan Walker is in for a very bad night."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Apr 17, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Lucindo is a grapple-heavy fighter with good top control and pressure. She trains with Virna Jandiroba, which should help her grappling. Brogan Walker has shown inconsistent takedown defense and can be overwhelmed by forward pressure. However, Lucindo is young and inexperienced at the UFC level, and Walker has a win over Miranda Maverick, showing she can pull off upsets. Lucindo should return to her grappling and grind out a decision, but it's a risky spot with low confidence.

Lucindo by decision
"I think lucindo has a pretty bright future in the UFC... prediction will still be Lucinda lucindo by decision but very be very wary about the spot"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 19, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Paul also picks Lucindo, impressed by her performance against Yazmin Jauregui despite the loss. He sees her as a top prospect with a bright future. He notes she proved she belongs at this level and has a lot of potential. Paul also says he won't bet this fight.

"I'll be picking lucindo as well I think she's got a lot of potential moving forward"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 18, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

The MMA Guru picks Iasmin Lucindo, aided by a coin flip. He notes Brogan Walker's loss to Juliana Miller and age, while Lucindo had a good performance against Yasmine Urigui and a long win streak. He thinks Lucindo's technique is solid and that this should be a lock. He predicts a win for Lucindo.

"we're gonna go Lucindo... me and the coin think alike you know I mean genius at women's MMA predictions"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Apr 20, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Zane picks Iasmin Lucindo (Silva), arguing that she has a clear grappling advantage and that it would be foolish for her not to try takedowns. He refuses to consider that she wouldn't attempt takedowns against Walker, who is a terrible grappler. Zane believes Lucindo's submissions off her back are a threat, and that Walker's lack of grappling knowledge will be exploited.

"I'm going to take her. I refuse to consider the idea that she would fight cash with it and be like, and just refuse to even try a take down."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 20, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Zane picks Lucindo confidently, noting that she is much more technical, fluid, and combination-savvy than Walker. He points out that Walker struggled against Juliana Miller, who is less skilled than Lucindo, and that Walker's inability to throw more than one strike without getting off balance will be exploited. He also mentions Lucindo's speed and power.

"Lucindo just seems frankly, just way too athletic."
LOSS vs Yazmin Jauregui
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Vera vs. Cruz · Aug 13, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Yazmin Jauregui 0 86 of 218 39% 87 of 219 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
Iasmin Lucindo 0 66 of 181 36% 66 of 181 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:34
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Yazmin Jauregui 0 31 of 77 40% 31 of 77 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Iasmin Lucindo 0 25 of 60 41% 25 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
2 Yazmin Jauregui 0 30 of 69 43% 31 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
Iasmin Lucindo 0 23 of 59 38% 23 of 59 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:20
3 Yazmin Jauregui 0 25 of 72 34% 25 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Iasmin Lucindo 0 18 of 62 29% 18 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Yazmin Jauregui 86 of 218 39% 52 of 159 9 of 25 25 of 34 81 of 210 5 of 8 0 of 0
Iasmin Lucindo 66 of 181 36% 42 of 148 15 of 22 9 of 11 64 of 179 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Yazmin Jauregui 31 of 77 40% 16 of 55 2 of 4 13 of 18 29 of 72 2 of 5 0 of 0
Iasmin Lucindo 25 of 60 41% 15 of 49 7 of 8 3 of 3 23 of 58 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Yazmin Jauregui 30 of 69 43% 17 of 48 5 of 11 8 of 10 27 of 66 3 of 3 0 of 0
Iasmin Lucindo 23 of 59 38% 17 of 50 3 of 6 3 of 3 23 of 59 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Yazmin Jauregui 25 of 72 34% 19 of 56 2 of 10 4 of 6 25 of 72 0 of 0 0 of 0
Iasmin Lucindo 18 of 62 29% 10 of 49 5 of 8 3 of 5 18 of 62 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Yazmin Jauregui

Angelo loves Yazmin Jauregui, citing her powerful striking, combinations, and solid takedown defense. He thinks the -240 odds are correct but is hesitant to bet due to both making their UFC debut. He expects the line to move and recommends jumping on it early.

Odds comment: -240 is correct, line will move
"i absolutely love yasmin in this fight obviously there's some questions around her takedown defense and her bjj off her back but i think i've watched enough tape to see just how solid that defense is"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 9, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Yazmin Jauregui

Big Brady picks Yazmin Jauregui to win by first-round knockout. He describes Jauregui as a savage who comes forward, eats punches to land her own, and has power. He thinks Lucindo is not quite ready for the UFC level and that Jauregui's takedown defense and grappling will hold up. He expects Jauregui to overwhelm Lucindo and finish her in the first round.

first round knockout
"i think she finishes lucinda here i think she does in the very first round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Aug 10, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Yazmin Jauregui

Cody also leans toward Jauregui, calling her the right favorite but not wanting heavy investment. He notes Lucindo is very green and relies on getting the fight to the ground, while Jauregui has better striking and takedown defense. He considers this a pass due to the uncertainty.

"i don't know that i would want a ton of investment here but i think she is the right favorite"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert picked Aug 10, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Daniel Levi is unsure about this fight. He notes that Jauregui has a clear edge on the feet with power and aggression, while Lucindo has a grappling advantage. He says if the fight stays standing, Jauregui wins; if it goes to the mat, Lucindo wins. He picks Lucindo as a dog but with low confidence.

"I guess I'll go Lucindo because since I'm not obvious about the favorite I'll go with the dog."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 13, 2022 (fight day)
Yazmin Jauregui

The host picks Jauregui, noting she has solid power and good volume. He thinks she will eventually get the finish, and suggests playing her KO straight up at +250 or first round KO at +700. He believes Lucindo is a short-notice replacement but has experience, though he doesn't think it's a good matchup for her.

Jauregui by KO at +250; Jauregui round 1 KO at +700 (considering).
"i think eventually she'll get the finish i think the safer way to play is just play ko straight up which is still getting about plus 250"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Aug 10, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Yazmin Jauregui

Paul leans toward Jauregui, noting she is more well-rounded with good striking and footwork. He acknowledges Lucindo's wrestling and top game but thinks Jauregui can keep the fight standing and piece her up. However, he is not confident due to the low level of competition and both fighters being young and making debuts.

"i think she'll probably keep the fight standing for the most part stop the takedowns when need be and kind of piece her up from range"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Aug 8, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Yazmin Jauregui

The host picks Yazmin Jauregui, citing her undefeated record and improvement against better competition. He notes she had more time to prepare for the fight and has momentum from a tournament win. However, he admits uncertainty about both fighters and wouldn't be surprised by an upset.

"i'm going to be going with yasmin jaurudjie"
Polyana Viana - Fight History
LOSS vs Alice Ardelean
SUB R2 4:36 · UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa · May 16, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alice Ardelean 0 46 of 94 48% 80 of 139 1 of 1 100% 1 0 4:05
Polyana Viana 0 34 of 75 45% 80 of 137 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alice Ardelean 0 41 of 85 48% 44 of 89 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Polyana Viana 0 31 of 71 43% 31 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
2 Alice Ardelean 0 5 of 9 55% 36 of 50 1 of 1 100% 1 0 4:05
Polyana Viana 0 3 of 4 75% 49 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alice Ardelean 46 of 94 48% 22 of 61 10 of 17 14 of 16 45 of 93 1 of 1 0 of 0
Polyana Viana 34 of 75 45% 9 of 44 13 of 19 12 of 12 29 of 66 5 of 9 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alice Ardelean 41 of 85 48% 21 of 57 9 of 15 11 of 13 40 of 84 1 of 1 0 of 0
Polyana Viana 31 of 71 43% 9 of 43 12 of 18 10 of 10 26 of 62 5 of 9 0 of 0
2 Alice Ardelean 5 of 9 55% 1 of 4 1 of 2 3 of 3 5 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Polyana Viana 3 of 4 75% 0 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 2 3 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Alice Ardelean vs. Polyana Viana

Round 1
Eric McMahon is the referee. They trade leg kicks early. Viana with a front kick and then a long right hand. Ardelean answers with a solid right. The fight is halted briefly due to what was thought to be an eye poke, but it’s determined that Viana was punched in the eye. The fight resumes in short order and the strawweights trade punches furiously. Ardelean is putting on the pressure and she tags Viana in close. Viana answers with a knee. They clinch and Viana lands a slashing elbow. Moments later, Ardelean stuns and briefly drops Viana. The Brazilian hustles to her feet and tries to regain her bearings. They clinch and trade knees. Viana turns her foe into the wire. Ardelean frees herself and returns to the center. Viana lands a hard body kick. Ardelean lines up a big right hand that finds the mark. Viana continues to have success with body kicks, using her superior range. Ardelean keeps the pressure on and she snaps the Brazilian’s head back with a three-punch combination. Another body kick for Viana. Ardelean ends a combination with a body kick, and Viana responds with a body kick of her own before the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ardelean
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Ardelean
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ardelean

Round 2
Ardelean backs Viana up and lands a combination. Ardelean forces her way into the clinch and plants the Brazilian on the mat. Ardelean is in half guard. The Romanian utilizes heavy top pressure but isn’t doing much in the way of ground-and-pound. McMahon asks for some better work. Ardelean with some short punches to the ribs and Viana recovers full gaurd. Viana gets active from her back with elbows and punches as she controls Ardelean with a body triangle. They remain in this position, and Ardelean is doing her best to find openings from ground-and-pound from above as . McMahon calls for action from Ardelean again, and just when it seems like a standup might be ordered,
Viana suddenly taps out with the body triangle still in place. As it turns out, Ardelean had stepped over the foot while moving her foe’s leg to the inside to apply significant pressure to Viana’s knee.
A clever way to end the fight for Ardelean after what had largely been a pedestrian round. It's believed to be the first submission of its kind in UFC history.

The Official Result
Alice Ardelean def. Polyana Viana via Verbal Submission (Capsule Lock) R2 4:36
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 10, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Alice Ardelean

Angelo picks Alice Ardelean, citing her durability, cardio, and well-roundedness. He notes Polyana Viana has declined and has quit in her. He believes Ardelean can find a finish or win a decision. He acknowledges the -200 line seems high but thinks the matchup is favorable.

"I got to go with Alice Hardling here. Minus 200 on a lady that's had seven losses in her career. Seems crazy, but matchups are the difference here."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked May 12, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Alice Ardelean

Big Brady picks Alice Ardelean, noting her superior volume and improvement compared to Polyana Viana, whom he views as more of a part-time fighter. He expects Ardelean to win by third-round TKO, as Viana tends to fade after the first round. However, he is hesitant due to the steep price.

third round TKO
"I'm going to take her to win this fight by third round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 13, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Alice Ardelean

Cody is confident in Alice Ardelean, noting her high work rate (7.3 significant strikes per minute) and physical strength. He believes Polyana Viana is not committed to fighting and relies on early submissions, but Ardelean is tough, comes forward, and can outwork her. He expects Ardelean to bully Viana and win by decision or late stoppage.

"I think styles make fights and she's got a really good style to just out muscle and bully Pauliana Vienna."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked May 15, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Alice Ardelean

Connor picks Ardelean, agreeing with Zane. He notes Viana looks like she is hardly paying attention anymore and has unlearned her wild swinging, making her even worse. Ardelean has improved from an OnlyFans content creator to a professional fighter.

Same odds as Zane. Connor calls Viana 'literally worse than when she debuted'.
"Yep. I agree. You know, I agree with that logic. Viana looks like she is hardly paying attention anymore."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Confident picked May 16, 2026 (fight day)
Alice Ardelean

Ardelean is the better striker with better cardio, fight IQ, and pace. Viana gives up cheap takedowns and is weak off her back, while Ardelean understands position over submission. Ardelean will outwork Viana in the second half of the fight.

"This is a really good stylistic match-up for Aldeline because she's the better striker in my opinion."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked May 10, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Alice Ardelean

Lucrative James picks Alice Ardelean, citing her physicality, durability, and focus on MMA compared to Viana's social media distractions. He believes Ardelean's strength and cardio will wear down Viana, leading to a decision win.

"I'll pick Alice to win the fight via decision."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked May 12, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Alice Ardelean

The host thinks Ardelean is well-rounded enough to take advantage of Viana's recklessness, but he is hesitant to bet her at -200 due to Viana's volatility and finishing ability. He prefers the under 2.5 rounds at +200, predicting Ardelean wins inside the distance, possibly by TKO or submission.

under 2.5 rounds (+200), Ardelean inside the distance
"I think Ardellion will be able to take advantage of the recklessness of Vienna. Whether that's in the striking realm or in the grappling realm, I think Ardellion is well-rounded enough to be able to take advantage of Vienna there."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 13, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Alice Ardelean

The host picks Reedelion (Ardelean) over Polyana Viana, citing Ardelean's grit, determination, and forward movement. He expects Ardelean to catch Viana's reckless nature and finish the fight, either by submission or TKO, within two and a half rounds.

finish under 2.5 rounds
"I believe she'll be able to catch the reckless nature of Viana here, and I believe that will lead to an Reedelion finish. Not sure if it's going to be club and sub or just straight-up club and drum, but …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 13, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Alice Ardelean

Paul also picks Alice Ardelean, noting that Polyana Viana's wins are all first-round submissions against low-level competition, and she has been finished in her recent losses. He believes Ardelean's toughness and wrestling will be too much for Viana, who is more focused on her OnlyFans career.

"If you're going to bet Paula Vienna, the submission round one prop would be like that's how I would get involved."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 15, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Alice Ardelean

Zane picks Ardelean because Viana has regressed, now only going backward and pulling guard, and has been crushed on the ground in her last three fights. Ardelean is not a technical marvel but is willing to fight and should be able to handle Viana.

Odds: Ardelean opened -250, now -200; Viana opened +210, now +170. Zane calls it a 'stupid fight' and 'completely unnecessary'.
"And Ardalene might not do that. She's not a technical Marvel anywhere, but Ardalene is very much all the way down to fight. So I'll take her."
Submission R2 1:49 · UFC on ESPN: Machado Garry vs. Prates · Apr 26, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jaqueline Amorim 0 6 of 8 75% 29 of 43 2 of 2 100% 1 0 6:34
Polyana Viana 0 0 of 6 0% 23 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jaqueline Amorim 0 5 of 6 83% 25 of 36 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:54
Polyana Viana 0 0 of 1 0% 21 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jaqueline Amorim 0 1 of 2 50% 4 of 7 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:40
Polyana Viana 0 0 of 5 0% 2 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jaqueline Amorim 6 of 8 75% 5 of 5 0 of 1 1 of 2 1 of 3 0 of 0 5 of 5
Polyana Viana 0 of 6 0% 0 of 4 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jaqueline Amorim 5 of 6 83% 5 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 5
Polyana Viana 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Jaqueline Amorim 1 of 2 50% 0 of 0 0 of 1 1 of 1 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Polyana Viana 0 of 5 0% 0 of 3 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jaqueline Amorim vs. Polyana Viana
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Amorim (-550), Viana (+410)

Round 1
A pair of Brazilian strawweights with 100% finish rates collide with hopes of involving referee Dan Miragliotta before too long. The judges might be able to take this one off, as these two women combine for 15 submissions in their 22 pro victories. The submission rate for Amorim (9-1, 3-1 UFC) may be a bit higher, and of the two, she has not been finished. Viana (13-7, 4-6 UFC) cannot say the same, with a trio of stoppage losses in the past for her including two in a row. Amorim offers a glove touch, and when Viana accepts it, Amorim shoots in for a takedown. Viana falls to her back, and she searches for a submission off her back including an inverted triangle choke that excites the crowd because of the position. Amorim pulls her head out between Viana’s legs and shifts to the side, and positions herself in north-south where she can sit on Viana’s face. Viana looks for another inverted triangle, but Amorim sees it coming and steps out of it. Amorim exerts heavy shoulder pressure as she attempts to step into mount, and she wraps up a kimura on Viana’s left side. Amorim cranks on the limb, even considering a straight armbar with the two-on-one wrist lock, and she maintains her grip so she can successfully pass into mount. Viana puts her hand on Amorim’s mouth to disrupt her breathing and frustrate her, and Amorim postures up and looks for offense. Amorim drops down ground-and-pound, punching and elbowing her fellow countrywoman. Viana bucks and kicks her hips back and forth, but she cannot get Amorim off of her. Amorim delivers a handful of 12-to-6 elbows as she maintains her dominant position, and she fights off a half guard recovery from Viana to get back to side control in a hurry. Amorim allows Viana to turn to her knees so she can take her back, and she fastens a body triangle around the waist. Miragliotta appears to mistakenly consider the 10-second clapper as the bell, and the women look awkwardly at one another until the bell actually rings.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Amorim
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Amorim
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Amorim

Round 2
Viana tries to start the round off with striking, but it takes less than 10 seconds for Amorim to engage and take her down with ease. Viana offers little defense to stop the takedown, perhaps hoping she can keep playing jiu-jitsu to catch something. Amorim gets to side control in the blink of an eye, and Viana sets up a partial crucifix position off her back by wrapping her legs around Amorim’s right arm. This allows Viana to shift to her knees, but Amorim laughs off the escape and takes her back in an instant.
Displaying that there are levels to this game, Amorim locks down the body triangle and a rear-naked choke almost simultaneously. Amorim can only cling one arm beneath the chin, and Viana is struggling but still with it. Amorim adjusts her grip, snaking her other arm under the chin and putting her palm-to-palm grip out of reach so that Viana can no longer hand-fight
. Viana knows her goose is cooked, and she taps out before long, expressing frustration that she was outdueled but otherwise accepting her defeat gracefully as she embraces her corner.

The Official Result
Jaqueline Amorim def. Polyana Viana R2 1:49 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 20, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Jaqueline Amorim

Angelo is very confident in Jaqueline Amorim, calling her a high-level grappler with power in her hands. He contrasts her serious approach with Polyana Viana's lack of career dedication, comparing it to Danni Barbosa vs. Belb. He notes the odds are moving quickly and expects Amorim to be a huge favorite by fight night.

Parlay with Ikram Aliskerov and Zhang Mingyang
"Jacqueline is going to run through Polyiana Viana."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 22, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Jaqueline Amorim

Big Brady is very confident in Jaqueline Amorim, citing her high-level BJJ and Polyana Viana's poor takedown defense (38%). He expects Amorim to take Viana down and submit her quickly, noting Viana's vulnerability on the ground as seen in past fights. He predicts a first-round submission.

first round submission
"Give me Amarim to win this fight by first round submission."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 25, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Jaqueline Amorim

The host believes Amorim is significantly better than Viana, expecting her to get the fight to the ground easily and eventually sink in a submission.

submission
"I think it's just a matter of time before she eventually sinks in a submission and forces the tap."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 22, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Jaqueline Amorim

The MMA Guru picks Jaqueline Amorim, believing she takes her career more seriously than Viana. He notes Amorim's submission skills and cheating incident against Demopoulos, but still favors her. He expects a finish, as Viana is not fully committed to fighting. He criticizes Viana's dedication and says Amorim trains harder.

finish
"I reckon she'll win by finish at some point as well. I don't rate Polyana Vanna. I don't think she's taken it as a fighter."
TKO (punches) R2 3:12 · UFC 297: Strickland vs. du Plessis · Jan 20, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Gillian Robertson 0 23 of 39 58% 49 of 91 2 of 2 100% 1 0 6:06
Polyana Viana 0 12 of 41 29% 33 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:27
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Gillian Robertson 0 8 of 13 61% 16 of 23 1 of 1 100% 1 0 3:52
Polyana Viana 0 8 of 18 44% 20 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:27
2 Gillian Robertson 0 15 of 26 57% 33 of 68 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:14
Polyana Viana 0 4 of 23 17% 13 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Gillian Robertson 23 of 39 58% 20 of 35 0 of 0 3 of 4 5 of 13 0 of 0 18 of 26
Polyana Viana 12 of 41 29% 10 of 37 2 of 3 0 of 1 9 of 37 0 of 0 3 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Gillian Robertson 8 of 13 61% 7 of 12 0 of 0 1 of 1 2 of 5 0 of 0 6 of 8
Polyana Viana 8 of 18 44% 7 of 16 1 of 2 0 of 0 5 of 14 0 of 0 3 of 4
2 Gillian Robertson 15 of 26 57% 13 of 23 0 of 0 2 of 3 3 of 8 0 of 0 12 of 18
Polyana Viana 4 of 23 17% 3 of 21 1 of 1 0 of 1 4 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Gillian Robertson vs. Polyana Viana
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Robertson (-230), Viana (+190)

Round 1
Strawweight grapplers are up next, with Robertson trying to even things up at 2-2 for Team Canada against her Brazilian counterpart. The referee is Kevin Macdonald. Both women are in orthodox stance, and Viana is the first to land, sticking Robertson with a long jab. They exchange jabs and Viana punctuates with a body kick. Robertson times a nice single-leg and hauls Viana down with ease. Robertson is on top in Viana’s half guard, leaning across her body and elbowing the ribs. Viana locks down the left leg and Robertson works for a straight armlock on the far arm. Robertson gives up on the arm attack and goes heavy on top, working to pass her guard as she does. Robertson throws two elbow strikes and slides right into mount. A couple more elbow strikes and Viana turns to the side. Robertson applies an arm-triangle choke and tries to move out to the side to finish. Viana manages to regain guard, but gives up her back a moment later. A minute to go in the round and Robertson is in back mount. She goes supine, rolls Viana on top of her, and Viana gives up mount. Robertson peels off for an armbar. It’s locked in and close to danger territory, but Viana extricates her arm and escapes. They return to their feet at the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Robertson
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Robertson
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Robertson

Round 2
Viana lands a low kick and slips the counter coming back her way. Viana tags Robertson with a straight right, then another, both of which glance off the guard. Robertson steps in, grabs a single-leg and gets another effortless takedown. She moves quickly to mount and Viana turns her back. Robertson is on top, drops an elbow and is in position to look for a choke if the opportunity presents itself. Robertson throws several hard punches that bounce off the forearm but still rattle the Brazilian’s head.
Robertson is all over Viana at the halfway point of the round, landing ground-and-pound. She keeps pouring it on and after 10 or more solid blows with no reaction from the turtled Viana, Macdonald steps in for the stoppage.

The Official Result
Gillian Robertson def. Polyana Viana R2 3:12 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jan 14, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Angelo picks Robertson but with medium confidence, noting her grappling credentials and record submission wins. He criticizes her inability to get fights to the ground despite being a great grappler, and acknowledges Viana's own dangerous ground game. He expects Robertson to win via grappling but is wary of Viana's toughness and cardio.

"she should be good enough to beat paana Viana here I say medium confidence for her to get it done"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Big Brady is confident in Robertson because Viana has poor takedown defense and is content to play off her back, which plays into Robertson's strength. He notes Robertson has good ground and pound and submissions, while Viana's only path is a knockout. He predicts Robertson will get the fight down and submit Viana in the second round.

second round submission
"I'll take her to win this fight fight by second round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Cody picks Robertson, citing her superior wrestling and grappling. He questions Viana's jiu-jitsu and cardio, noting she gets tired and gives up submissions. He believes Robertson will take her down and control the fight.

"Robertson... she's got the superior grappling and the superior pace."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Daniel Vreeland picks Gillian Robertson by submission. He notes Robertson is one-dimensional but dangerous on the mat, while Viana can crack on the feet but is susceptible to submissions. He expects Robertson to chain takedowns and have her way on top, leading to a submission win.

by submission
"I'm gonna go Julian Robertson here"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Feb 6, 2025 (fight day)

This fight is not discussed in the transcript. The host does not mention Robertson vs Viana.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

I expect Robertson to drag this fight to the ground and utilize her superior Jiu-Jitsu to control top position and eventually open up a submission opportunity. Viana relies too much on her guard off her back, and Robertson has good enough Jiu-Jitsu to stay out of submission threats. I think it's just a matter of time once the fight hits the mat that Robertson can work to a dominant position and sink in a submission. I like the under 2.5 rounds prop as well.

under 2.5 rounds, submission victory
"gim me Robertson again chalky under 2 and 1 half is another spot that I really like"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jan 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Polyana Viana

Paul picks Viana as a chaos pick, noting her volatility and submission threat. He acknowledges Robertson is more likely to win but has a gut feeling Viana could pull off an armbar. He suggests Viana inside the distance as a better bet.

Viana inside the distance at +600
"I'll pick Polyana Viana to pull off the upset in something super stupid."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

The MMA Guru picks Gillian Robertson, calling her a slight step above 'bottom feeder trash.' He criticizes Polyana Viana's lack of commitment and poor competition, noting she hasn't beaten anyone good. He believes Robertson can get top position safely and avoid Viana's submission threat.

"I'm going to go Julian Robertson now are both of them not good yes neither of them are really that good"
LOSS vs Iasmin Lucindo
Submission (arm-triangle choke) R2 3:42 · UFC on ESPN: Luque vs. dos Anjos · Aug 12, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Iasmin Lucindo 0 10 of 25 40% 41 of 68 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:58
Polyana Viana 0 10 of 24 41% 31 of 48 2 of 2 100% 1 0 3:13
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Iasmin Lucindo 0 6 of 12 50% 26 of 43 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:58
Polyana Viana 0 6 of 12 50% 17 of 24 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:21
2 Iasmin Lucindo 0 4 of 13 30% 15 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Polyana Viana 0 4 of 12 33% 14 of 24 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:52
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Iasmin Lucindo 10 of 25 40% 2 of 15 4 of 6 4 of 4 10 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
Polyana Viana 10 of 24 41% 5 of 18 4 of 5 1 of 1 9 of 21 0 of 0 1 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Iasmin Lucindo 6 of 12 50% 2 of 8 2 of 2 2 of 2 6 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Polyana Viana 6 of 12 50% 3 of 9 2 of 2 1 of 1 5 of 9 0 of 0 1 of 3
2 Iasmin Lucindo 4 of 13 30% 0 of 7 2 of 4 2 of 2 4 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Polyana Viana 4 of 12 33% 2 of 9 2 of 3 0 of 0 4 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Polyana Viana vs. Iasmin Lucindo
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Lucindo (-198), Viana (+164)

Round 1
Multiple fighters on this billing celebrate 100% finish rates, and Brazilian Viana (13-5, 4-4 UFC) is one of them. In fact, she has landed 12 of her 13 victories in the first round, with her latest a minute and change into Round 2. This likely means that youthful countrywoman Lucindo (14-5, 1-1 UFC) will need to be on her guard and not fall into any early traps if she hopes to put herself on a win streak. Standing by will be referee Chris Tognoni, and the bout opens up as the strawweight clap hands. Viana leads off with a kick that whizzes past the target, and Lucindo counters with a clubbing left hand that staggers Viana briefly. Viana gathers her thoughts and whips down a leg kick, and she partially checks one that eventually comes back her way. Viana scores a low kick and a punch, and she decks Lucindo in the face with her shin. Lucindo tries to punch back, and Viana closes in and grabs hold of her. Viana looks for a takedown, and she slugs Lucindo in the face a few times before dragging her down to the mat violently. Lucindo closes up her guard to try to stall things out, and Viana stays heavily pressed to her to keep her otherwise grounded. Tognoni asks for Viana to do more than sit there, and Viana does not improve her position or attack with anything else. Tognoni once again tells Viana to do something, and Lucindo is clinging tightly to shut down anything. Tognoni stands them up, and Viana helps her opponent to her feet and then offers a glove touch. Lucindo spins with a back kick that grazes off the side, and she misses with a back fist and ends up getting her leg grabbed in the air. Viana looks for a level change, but it is Lucindo who ends up tripping her up and throwing “Dama de Ferro” down to the mat. Viana hits her back and ignores light, frustrating punches bopping her on the side of the head. Viana turns to her side to potentially escape, and Tognoni now asks Lucindo to work. Lucindo postures up with a few hammerfists, and Viana kicks her off right before the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Lucindo
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Lucindo
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Lucindo

Round 2
The strawweight bump fists together to start off the second stanza, and after a lull, Lucindo springs into action with a head kick and spinning back kick. Lucindo strings together a right and a left, and she hurts Viana. “Dama de Ferro” bounces off the cage wall and shakes out any cobwebs, and Lucindo does not give her chase or pressure her one iota. Instead, Lucindo lets Viana back in the fight, as she slowly works her way forward and tosses out a blocked overhand right. Lucindo spins with a kick that ricochets off the guard, and she tries to boot the ribs only to have that blocked as well. Lucindo drills Viana with a fierce overhand right, and Viana wobbles but does not fall down. Lucindo does not follow it with anything, allowing Viana to shake it off and spin at her with a back fist and keep turning into a body kick. Lucindo meets her in the middle and tackles her to the ground, where she plops on top in half guard. Lucindo smothers and grinds without the occasional short punch. Viana has no offense of her own, prompting Tognoni to tell Lucindo to do something.
Lucindo looks to pass over to three-quarter mount, and she suddenly attacks with an arm-triangle choke. Jumping straight over to the side, the submission is complete and Viana has nothing left to offer. One single tap comes from Viana, and Tognoni recognizes it and pulls the two apart.
For the first time since 2019, Lucindo forced an opponent to tap out, doing so over a woman in Viana that typically is the one submitting others.

The Official Result
Iasmin Lucindo def. Polyana Viana R2 3:42 via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Angelo picks Lucindo, trusting her takedown ability and top pressure. He notes Viana is a BJJ threat but Lucindo's defense should hold up. He expects a decision win.

"I think this is an Eisman lucindo fight all day"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Aug 7, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Big Brady picks Iasmin Lucindo to win by decision, but hates the pick. He notes Lucindo's striking advantage and ability to win minutes, but fears Viana's submission threat, especially the armbar from guard. He says there are two outcomes: Lucindo by decision or Viana by submission. He chooses Lucindo because she has more paths to victory, but will not bet the fight.

"give me a Lucinda by decision I I hate it um but it's got to be the pick right"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Cody picks Lucindo, praising her scrappy style, speed, cardio, and volume. He criticizes Viana's inconsistency and inability to get takedowns against good competition. He thinks Lucindo's strength will prevent takedowns and that she will outwork Viana on the feet. He acknowledges the risk in women's MMA but is confident Lucindo gets the job done.

Lucindo under 2 takedowns on PrizePicks
"Yasmine lucindo to get the job done"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Aug 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

James picks Lucindo, believing she is a good fighter with strong ground skills. He thinks Lucindo's jiu-jitsu is better than Viana's and that she can even submit Viana. He notes Viana's only path to victory is on the ground, but Lucindo is likely better there. James sees value on Lucindo at the current odds, thinking she should be a bigger favorite.

"I think Lucindo's value here... I don't think she should be worse than minus 250 in this spot."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Aug 10, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Lucindo is young but has good training partners and experience. Viana is an aggressive BJJ black belt who finishes early or fades. Lucindo should be able to use Viana's recklessness against her with takedowns and forward pressure to win a decision. It's a close fight, and a value shot on Viana is not bad, but Lucindo is cleaner.

Lucindo by decision
"I still think that lucindo is clean enough to win this fight over 50 minutes and get her hand raised"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Aug 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Polyana Viana

Paul picks Viana by submission or inside the distance, citing the armbar from guard as a real threat. He thinks Lucindo might be hesitant to take Viana down due to her submission skills, and if the fight goes to the ground, Viana has a clear advantage. However, he admits he's not confident and may not bet it, as he understands Cody's points about Lucindo's volume and strength.

Viana by submission or inside the distance; mentions armbar from guard
"Viana by sub or Fiona inside the distance would be my official pick but I don't know if I'm gonna actually bet it"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

The MMA Guru initially considered Polyana Viana but switched to Iasmin Lucindo, noting Lucindo's better competition and ability to go three rounds. He mentions Lucindo's wins over Brogan Walker and Yasmine Uruguay, and her experience against Sarah Frota. He believes most people are picking Viana incorrectly and that Lucindo will win.

"I'm going with Yasmine Lucindo over polyana Viana here"
WIN vs Jinh Yu Frey
KO (punches) R1 0:47 · UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Lemos · Nov 05, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Polyana Viana 1 11 of 18 61% 11 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Jinh Yu Frey 0 6 of 14 42% 6 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Polyana Viana 1 11 of 18 61% 11 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Jinh Yu Frey 0 6 of 14 42% 6 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Polyana Viana 11 of 18 61% 10 of 17 1 of 1 0 of 0 9 of 16 0 of 0 2 of 2
Jinh Yu Frey 6 of 14 42% 0 of 5 3 of 6 3 of 3 6 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Polyana Viana 11 of 18 61% 10 of 17 1 of 1 0 of 0 9 of 16 0 of 0 2 of 2
Jinh Yu Frey 6 of 14 42% 0 of 5 3 of 6 3 of 3 6 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jinh Yu Frey vs. Polyana Viana
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Viana (-135), Frey (+115)

Round 1
Strawweights toe the line in this next encounter, and their fighting styles could scarcely be more different. Viana (12-5, 3-4 UFC) maintains a 100% finish rate with exactly two-thirds of her victories coming by tapout, while former Invicta champ Frey (11-7, 2-3 UFC) has not procured a stoppage since December 2014. Referee Herb Dean is ready for anywhere this fight goes, and it begins with a touch of hands. They calmly start to trade punches, going tit-for-tat with jabs and straight punches. Frey slaps a low kick, and Viana responds in kind. Out of nowhere, Frey leaps forward in a blitz of blows, and Viana stands firm to knee her square to the body. With Frey stunned, Viana wings hooks that are far more powerful than what Frey can muster, and she has Frey’s attention in a hurry.
Viana knocks her foe back with a long barrage of nasty punches, and she does not let a wobbled Frey off the hook. The brutal swinging fists from “Dama de Ferro” continue to blast into Frey, and Frey falls to the ground in big trouble. To hammer the nail, Viana keeps her 100% finish rate intact by smashing Frey with two hammerfists.
Those blows put Frey flat on her back with her arms reached out, frozen in time, and she has nothing left to give. Dean leaps in, and Frey snaps back to life as if she had just been woken up from a deep slumber. Brazil’s Viana is now one stoppage away from the women’s strawweight record held by Jessica Andrade and Rose Namajunas, and she calls for a fight in January in Rio de Janeiro.

The Official Result
Polyana Viana def. Jinh Yu Frey R1 0:47 via KO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Jinh Yu Frey

Angelo picks Frey, citing her physicality, veteran savvy, and well-roundedness. He expects Frey to slow the pace, hold Viana against the cage, and avoid ground threats. He notes Viana is dangerous with submissions but relies on opponents to get to the ground. He is on the fence about betting, waiting for prop bets.

I'll probably wait till Tuesday when all the prop bets drop
"I think Fry's physicality and the veteran savvy are going to be the difference here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 1, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Polyana Viana

Big Brady criticizes Frey's low volume and poor cardio, while noting Viana's dangerous submission game and 100% finish rate. He expects Viana to pull guard and get the fight to the mat, where she is very dangerous with arm bars and triangles. He predicts a first-round submission, though he acknowledges Frey's takedown defense is strong.

Viana wins by submission in round 1
"I kind of see her catching gignify at some point in this fight I think the fight does hit the mat and I think pauliana Viana fry and I'll probably say it's in the first round so give me Pauline …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Polyana Viana

Cody picks Polyana Viana by submission. He notes that Viana is the 'armbar queen' and that submission is very much on the table. He references the Kate Hanson fight where Frey was submitted by armbar, and thinks Viana can do the same. He acknowledges that Viana has had travel issues from Brazil but still likes her to find a submission. He prefers Viana by sub at +350 over the moneyline.

Polyana Viana by submission +350
"Vienna by sub and be done with it move on it's like plus 350s are out there right now it's like that's what she attacks when she you know gets these victories so"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Nov 3, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Polyana Viana

Connor agrees, noting that Frey's cautious style and lack of confidence make her unlikely to take advantage of Viana's chaotic approach. Viana will insist on making the fight happen, and Frey has historically frozen under pressure. Viana's finishes (12 inside the distance) contrast with Frey's lack of finishing ability.

"I'm going to side with you. That Vanessa Demopolis loss was really sad."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Nov 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Polyana Viana

Daniel Levi picks Polyana Viana, citing her will to win and opportunistic armbar from guard. He notes Jinh Yu Frey is more polished standing, but Viana's aggression and submission threat on the mat give her the edge. He is not laying chalk on it.

"I'm gonna go with Pollyanna Vienna"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Oct 31, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Polyana Viana

The host sees this as a difficult fight but leans Viana due to her chaotic style and submission threat. He notes Frey could grind out a decision, but Viana's aggression and BJJ make her dangerous. He prefers the under 2.5 rounds prop rather than the moneyline, expecting a finish from Viana.

Under 2.5 rounds; Viana inside the distance by submission
"I do lean the Vienna side I do think she pulls off an arm bar or a submission of some sort"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jinh Yu Frey

Paul picks Jinh Yu Frey as an underdog. He argues that Frey is a BJJ black belt and has not been submitted lately, surviving against Ashley Yoder and Vanessa Demopoulos. He thinks Frey is better standing, with improved volume (88 significant strikes against Yoder, 62 against Demopoulos). He criticizes Viana as one-dimensional, with poor striking and a tendency to get controlled on the ground, as seen against Tabatha Ricci. He believes Frey can win a decision by outworking Viana.

"I gotta go the other way actually ... if I'm gonna get slight Underdog money I'm gonna take a dog or pass on this one go with Jimmy Fray"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Polyana Viana

The MMA Guru picks Polyana Viana, noting Frey's submission loss to Kay Hansen and decision loss to Vanessa Demopoulos. He believes Viana, at 30, is in her prime and has submission skills, particularly armbars. He predicts Viana will get a submission, likely an armbar or triangle, after making Frey shoot for takedowns.

submission (armbar or triangle)
"I'm gonna go if Pollyanna Viano over ginufree... I can see this being an arm bar as well."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Nov 3, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Polyana Viana

Zane picks Viana because Frey is too tentative and cautious, lacking the aggression to capitalize on Viana's defensive lapses. Viana is aggressive, throws from all ranges, and will force the action. Frey's inability to pull the trigger, as seen in her loss to Vanessa Demopoulos, makes her unreliable even against a flawed opponent like Viana.

"I'm going to pick Viana. This is right in line with the level of fight that Trey does win."
LOSS vs Tabatha Ricci
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Vieira · May 21, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tabatha Ricci 0 36 of 97 37% 126 of 212 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Polyana Viana 0 33 of 73 45% 72 of 126 5 of 10 50% 0 0 9:31
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tabatha Ricci 0 7 of 20 35% 53 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Polyana Viana 0 9 of 18 50% 28 of 39 1 of 2 50% 0 0 4:00
2 Tabatha Ricci 0 20 of 58 34% 40 of 79 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Polyana Viana 0 12 of 34 35% 24 of 47 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:57
3 Tabatha Ricci 0 9 of 19 47% 33 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Polyana Viana 0 12 of 21 57% 20 of 40 2 of 5 40% 0 0 3:34
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tabatha Ricci 36 of 97 37% 18 of 74 11 of 14 7 of 9 29 of 86 3 of 7 4 of 4
Polyana Viana 33 of 73 45% 11 of 43 3 of 8 19 of 22 21 of 57 0 of 1 12 of 15
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tabatha Ricci 7 of 20 35% 3 of 16 4 of 4 0 of 0 5 of 17 2 of 3 0 of 0
Polyana Viana 9 of 18 50% 2 of 9 0 of 0 7 of 9 5 of 12 0 of 0 4 of 6
2 Tabatha Ricci 20 of 58 34% 8 of 43 6 of 7 6 of 8 16 of 52 1 of 3 3 of 3
Polyana Viana 12 of 34 35% 5 of 22 2 of 6 5 of 6 10 of 30 0 of 1 2 of 3
3 Tabatha Ricci 9 of 19 47% 7 of 15 1 of 3 1 of 1 8 of 17 0 of 1 1 of 1
Polyana Viana 12 of 21 57% 4 of 12 1 of 2 7 of 7 6 of 15 0 of 0 6 of 6
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Tabatha Ricci vs. Polyana Viana
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Ricci (-120), Viana (+100)

Round 1
Chris Tognoni will officiate this clash of Brazilian strawweights. Viana connects with a hard body kick at the outset. Ricci goes for a single leg takedown and Viana jumps on a guillotine. Ricci escapes without issue, but Viana transitions to an armbar. Ricci stands and kicks at her grounded foe’s legs. Viana is content to remain on her back, kicking at the knees of her opponent, one of which makes Ricci stumble. Tognoni orders a standup as Ricci backs away. Ricci moves in behind a solid jab. Ricci closes the distance and Viana jumps on a guillotine again. Ricci dumps her foe down and frees her head. Viana is active off her back with strikes as she attempts to frame a triangle. Not much action from Ricci from above. Viana remains busy with short shots to the head. With 1:00 to go, Ricci is still in top position, but it’s Viana who is more active offensively from her back. Ricci stands and backs away just before the end of the round.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ricci
Keith Shillan scores the round: 10-9 Ricci
Tudor Leonte scores the round:10-9 Ricci

Round 2
Viana moves forward behind a kick, and the strawweights clinch briefly before separating. A lot of swings and misses from both sides early in the ruond. Ricci with an outside leg kick. Another leg kick lands with authority for Ricci. They tie up and separating in short order once again. A spinning back fist lands for Viana, at least partially. Viana steps in and lands an elbow. Ricci executes a beautifully timed level change and ground Viana near the fence. Ricci stands, and another kick to the knee by Viana makes Ricci stumble. Ricci looks to work her way in and winds up in the full guard of her opponent. Viana holds her close, landing short punches. Ricci stands and Viana is perfectly content to stay on her back, kicking at the knees of her opponent. Tognoni orders them up with 20 seconds left. Ricci powers Viana back down in the waning seconds and ends the round on top.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ricci
Keith Shillan scores the round: 10-9 Ricci
Tudor Leonte scores the round:10-9 Ricci

Round 3
Ricci wastes little time forcing the clinch and pressing Viana into the cage. They separate and return to the center of the Octagon. Ricci rushes forward and lands a right hand. Ricci shoots for a takedown against the fence, then trips Viana to the mat. Ricci stands, then briefly dives to side control before standing again. We’re back in a familiar position, with Viana on her back and Ricci standing and looking for openings to dive into top position. Tognoni doesn’t like the lack of action and orders them up. Ricci ducks under a punch for a single leg takedown but Viana briefly ends up on top. They scramble back up and Ricci plants Viana on her back. Ricci stands and backs away, kicking at the legs of Viana. Not much is happening here, but Viana is content to let things play out this way. Ricci can’t quite get past the legs of Viana to get on top and land ground-and-pound. The fight ends with Viana on her back and Ricci kicking away at her legs.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ricci (30-27 Ricci)
Keith Shillan scores the round: 10-9 Ricci (30-27 Ricci)
Tudor Leonte scores the round:10-9 Ricci (30-27 Ricci)

The Official Result
Tabatha Ricci def. Polyana Viana via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28) R3 5:00
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 15, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Tabatha Ricci

Angelo picks Tabatha Ricci because she is a very good grappler with solid forward pressure and frequent takedowns. He notes that Viana is submission-or-bust and struggles with takedown accuracy. Ricci's last win at 115 pounds showed her takedown ability. Angelo expects Ricci to wrestle heavily and win a decision, and he plans to include her in his DraftKings lineup.

Tabatha Ricci in DraftKings lineup
"i trust her to wrestle like crazy and cruz do a decision win"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 17, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Tabatha Ricci

Big Brady picks Tabatha Ricci to win by decision, citing her superior wrestling and BJJ black belt. He notes Viana relies on pulling guard and submissions off her back, but Ricci is a legitimate black belt who should be able to avoid submissions and control the fight on the mat. He expects Ricci to take Viana down with little resistance and win a decision.

"i got to go reach you here um and i gotta go reach you by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 18, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Tabatha Ricci

Cody picks Ricci, citing her wrestling, BJJ black belt, and better striking. He notes Viana's reliance on armbars from guard but believes Ricci's jiu-jitsu pedigree will prevent her from getting caught. He thinks Ricci can out-strike Viana, take her down, and win a decision, even if she fades in the third.

"i think the pick for me is tabitha richie"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 21, 2022 (fight day)
Tabatha Ricci

The host picks Tabatha Ricci to win, expecting her to grind out a victory. He notes that Viana is always live for a submission but does not think she gets it tonight. He believes Ricci's grappling and control time will be the difference, and he does not see the Viana side himself. He does not have a bet on Ricci but is confident in her winning.

"i don't see the vienna side myself i don't have a bet on richie but yeah i think richie can grind this one out"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 18, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Tabatha Ricci

Paul picks Ricci, saying she should have the wrestling to keep the fight upright and the grappling to avoid Viana's submissions. He notes Viana's craftiness off her back but believes Ricci is the side.

"i think richie should have the wrestling to keep this fight upright she should have the grappling training with you know mackenzie dern and all of those that if she goes into vianna's guard that she won't get um that …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 17, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Polyana Viana

The MMA Guru picks Polyana Viana, citing her experience, size, and reach advantage. He thinks Tabatha Ricci is a small strawweight and may get overexcited on the ground, leading to a submission. He predicts an armbar win for Viana.

submission by armbar
"i'm gonna go for another arm bar in a row for pollyanna viana here"
Submission (armbar) R1 3:18 · UFC 258: Usman vs. Burns · Feb 13, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Polyana Viana 0 4 of 16 25% 71 of 89 0 of 0 --- 5 0 0:18
Mallory Martin 0 5 of 7 71% 14 of 19 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:25
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Polyana Viana 0 4 of 16 25% 71 of 89 0 of 0 --- 5 0 0:18
Mallory Martin 0 5 of 7 71% 14 of 19 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:25
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Polyana Viana 4 of 16 25% 0 of 12 3 of 3 1 of 1 4 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
Mallory Martin 5 of 7 71% 1 of 3 4 of 4 0 of 0 5 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Polyana Viana 4 of 16 25% 0 of 12 3 of 3 1 of 1 4 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
Mallory Martin 5 of 7 71% 1 of 3 4 of 4 0 of 0 5 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Polyana Viana vs. Mallory Martin

Round 1
Up next is a women’s strawweight bout as finish-minded Brazilian Viana (11-4, 2-3 UFC) looks to even her UFC record to .500 at the expense of Invicta FC vet Martin (7-3, 1-1 UFC). Drawing the assignment for this interesting style matchup is referee Mark Smith, and the two ladies touch ‘em up before getting down to business. Martin immediately throws a pair of punches to the body, and she gets countered but walks forward to plant her fists on Viana’s midsection again. Martin walks forward with a similar salvo, but this time, Viana is ready for her. Viana has a one-two blocked, but she lands a body kick and falls to her back pulling guard. Martin obliges by wading into the Brazilian’s guard, where she stays tight and does not expose her limbs or put herself in unnecessary danger. Viana starts throwing strikes off her back, with punches landing on the ear and elbows hacking on the scalp. Martin postures up, and she falls into a triangle choke that is instantly locked up. Martin rolls with the position but does not break it, and Viana pursues an armbar before bailing it to slash at Martin’s forehead with elbows. Martin loosens the grip to breathe a little as she gets to a crouching position, but she slams Viana down and puts herself in even worse position. “Dama de Ferro” tightens her legs and Martin is still fighting through the very bad spot, taking elbows all the while.
Viana wrenches on to a keylock while Martin is trapped tightly, and Martin rolls to her back but falls victim to an armbar attempt. Viana wrenches on the arm with everything she has, and Martin can gut through it no more, tapping out lest her arm get snapped.
With her submission victory, Viana maintains her perfect finish rate through 12 career wins.

The Official Result
Polyana Viana def. Mallory Martin R1 3:18 via Submission (Armbar)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 9, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Mallory Martin

Big Brady picks Mallory Martin to win by decision. He initially leaned towards Viana but after digging in, he thinks Martin will get top control and stay safe. He notes that Viana was submitted by Veronica Macedo and that Hannah Cifers stayed safe on top against Viana. He believes Martin's wrestling and top control will be the difference, though he is not high on Martin after her fight with Cifers.

Martin by decision; stay away from betting perspective; possible armbar from guard
"I'm going to take malory martin like i said at first i was on the viana side but after digging into it"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Feb 12, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Polyana Viana

Daniel Levi picks Polyana Viana to win by first-round finish. He notes that Viana is a first-round finish or bust, with most wins coming in the first round. He acknowledges Martin's toughness and heart but points out her slow starts. He believes Viana can catch Martin early, but if it goes to the scorecards, he would edge Martin. He predicts a first-round finish for Viana.

Viana by first-round finish; mentions Martin's slow starts and Viana's first-round finishes
"i'm gonna say vienna comes out here and gets a first round finish"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Feb 9, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Polyana Viana

The host picks Viana as a dog, believing her jiu-jitsu will be the difference if the fight goes to the ground. He notes that Martin's wrestling could play into Viana's submission game, and that Viana's reckless style makes a finish likely. He also likes the under 2.5 rounds prop at +190.

under 2.5 rounds at +190
"i'm actually siding with poliana vienna side i think that if martin decides to go out there and try to wrestle she's just jumping into the jaws of the shark"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Mallory Martin

The Guru picks Mallory Martin, largely because Polyana Viana lost to Hannah Cifers, which he considers disqualifying. He believes Martin will win the ground exchanges and positional control, earning a unanimous decision. He does not see a submission for Martin but expects her to edge out a grappling-heavy decision.

"i'm going to be going with mallory martin here to get the job done over pollyanna viana... pollyanna viana lost to hannah ciphers that should be all i have to say"
Submission (armbar) R1 1:53 · UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Rakic · Aug 29, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Polyana Viana 0 9 of 15 60% 18 of 24 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:00
Emily Whitmire 0 2 of 11 18% 5 of 15 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Polyana Viana 0 9 of 15 60% 18 of 24 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:00
Emily Whitmire 0 2 of 11 18% 5 of 15 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Polyana Viana 9 of 15 60% 6 of 12 0 of 0 3 of 3 6 of 12 0 of 0 3 of 3
Emily Whitmire 2 of 11 18% 1 of 9 0 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Polyana Viana 9 of 15 60% 6 of 12 0 of 0 3 of 3 6 of 12 0 of 0 3 of 3
Emily Whitmire 2 of 11 18% 1 of 9 0 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Emily Whitmire vs. Polyana Viana

Round 1
Remaining at what should be the strawweight division for another tilt is TUF 26 vet Whitmire (4-3, 2-2 UFC) against “Dama de Ferro” – or Iron Lady -- Viana (10-4, 1-3 UFC). Drawing the assignment for this match between a woman whose losses are all by finish (Whitmire) and a woman whose wins are all by stoppage (Viana) is referee Jason Herzog. The glove touch precedes what comes shortly after in the form of a leg kick from Viana, and Whitmire fires back. Viana slings another kick, and Whitmire throws several punches that land flush. Both women trade leg kicks, and Viana has already switched stances. They come together and land right hands at the same time, but a right hand from Viana forces Whitmire to shoot in and take the Brazilian down. Viana tries to trip her, but Whitmire counters to take top position. “Spitfire” lands in side control and hangs on to two-on-one wrist control until Viana shucks her off and gets her back to full guard. Viana slams several elbows in the side of her opponent’s head, and looks to set up an armbar off her back but Whitmire sees it coming and adjusts.
Viana repositions and snags the arm, and Whitmire falls to her back but is still trapped. She screeches as she taps out in obvious pain, and “Dama de Ferro” racks up another finish.
All 11 of Viana’s career wins have come inside the distance, with 10 now in the first round.

The Official Result
Polyana Viana def. Emily Whitmire R1 1:53 via Submission (Armbar)
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Aug 27, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Emily Whitmire

Big Brady favors Whitmire slightly in striking and wrestling, expecting her to get takedowns and control the fight. However, he is hesitant because Whitmire has been submitted in all three losses, and Viana has good BJJ. He notes that Viana was unable to submit Hannah Cifers, which gives him some confidence, but he cannot bet this fight at the current line.

"give me emily lee whitmire i'm gonna pick her to win by i'm gonna say decision"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Aug 29, 2020 (fight day)
Polyana Viana

Daniel Levi picks Polyana Viana, arguing that her ceiling is higher than Whitmire's. He points out that Viana has beaten Amanda Ribas (who Whitmire lost to) and that Whitmire's ground game is questionable. He believes Viana can finish with an armbar or triangle, but acknowledges she is inconsistent.

"i'mma go with vienna just because i think her ceiling is higher"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Aug 28, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Polyana Viana

Viana has better overall jiu-jitsu and both women are finishers, so the fight likely ends via submission. Whitmire is overrated due to recency bias; Viana's submission skills should be the difference. I see a first-round rear-naked choke.

under 2.5 rounds +165
"i do like vienna to win this fight again i do expect it to play out in the grappling realm"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 23, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Polyana Viana

The host favors Polyana Viana due to her jiu-jitsu world champion background and better stand-up. He notes that Viana's back is against the wall and she knows a loss could mean being cut. He believes Whitmire's only path is grappling, but Viana has the jiu-jitsu to avoid submissions. He also mentions Viana's reach advantage and better striking.

"i think she's going to go out there and get the job done over emily whitmire"
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Angelo picks Lucindo, trusting her takedown ability and top pressure. He notes Viana is a BJJ threat but Lucindo's defense should hold up. He expects a decision win.

"I think this is an Eisman lucindo fight all day"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Aug 7, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Big Brady picks Iasmin Lucindo to win by decision, but hates the pick. He notes Lucindo's striking advantage and ability to win minutes, but fears Viana's submission threat, especially the armbar from guard. He says there are two outcomes: Lucindo by decision or Viana by submission. He chooses Lucindo because she has more paths to victory, but will not bet the fight.

"give me a Lucinda by decision I I hate it um but it's got to be the pick right"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Cody picks Lucindo, praising her scrappy style, speed, cardio, and volume. He criticizes Viana's inconsistency and inability to get takedowns against good competition. He thinks Lucindo's strength will prevent takedowns and that she will outwork Viana on the feet. He acknowledges the risk in women's MMA but is confident Lucindo gets the job done.

Lucindo under 2 takedowns on PrizePicks
"Yasmine lucindo to get the job done"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Aug 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

James picks Lucindo, believing she is a good fighter with strong ground skills. He thinks Lucindo's jiu-jitsu is better than Viana's and that she can even submit Viana. He notes Viana's only path to victory is on the ground, but Lucindo is likely better there. James sees value on Lucindo at the current odds, thinking she should be a bigger favorite.

"I think Lucindo's value here... I don't think she should be worse than minus 250 in this spot."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Aug 10, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Lucindo is young but has good training partners and experience. Viana is an aggressive BJJ black belt who finishes early or fades. Lucindo should be able to use Viana's recklessness against her with takedowns and forward pressure to win a decision. It's a close fight, and a value shot on Viana is not bad, but Lucindo is cleaner.

Lucindo by decision
"I still think that lucindo is clean enough to win this fight over 50 minutes and get her hand raised"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Aug 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Polyana Viana

Paul picks Viana by submission or inside the distance, citing the armbar from guard as a real threat. He thinks Lucindo might be hesitant to take Viana down due to her submission skills, and if the fight goes to the ground, Viana has a clear advantage. However, he admits he's not confident and may not bet it, as he understands Cody's points about Lucindo's volume and strength.

Viana by submission or inside the distance; mentions armbar from guard
"Viana by sub or Fiona inside the distance would be my official pick but I don't know if I'm gonna actually bet it"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

The MMA Guru initially considered Polyana Viana but switched to Iasmin Lucindo, noting Lucindo's better competition and ability to go three rounds. He mentions Lucindo's wins over Brogan Walker and Yasmine Uruguay, and her experience against Sarah Frota. He believes most people are picking Viana incorrectly and that Lucindo will win.

"I'm going with Yasmine Lucindo over polyana Viana here"