Career Averages - A.J. Dobson
Career Averages - Tafon Nchukwi
A.J. Dobson
Tafon Nchukwi
A.J. Dobson - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edmen Shahbazyan | 1 | 27 of 43 | 62% | 31 of 51 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:49 |
| A.J. Dobson | 0 | 15 of 46 | 32% | 20 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 1:15 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Edmen Shahbazyan | 1 | 27 of 43 | 62% | 31 of 51 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:49 |
| A.J. Dobson | 0 | 15 of 46 | 32% | 20 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 1:15 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edmen Shahbazyan | 27 of 43 | 62% | 19 of 34 | 2 of 3 | 6 of 6 | 16 of 24 | 1 of 3 | 10 of 16 |
| A.J. Dobson | 15 of 46 | 32% | 7 of 36 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 8 | 12 of 43 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Edmen Shahbazyan | 27 of 43 | 62% | 19 of 34 | 2 of 3 | 6 of 6 | 16 of 24 | 1 of 3 | 10 of 16 |
| A.J. Dobson | 15 of 46 | 32% | 7 of 36 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 8 | 12 of 43 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Shahbazyan (-198), Dobson (+164)
Round 1
In the “featured fight of the night” slot, two relatively young middleweights are both at a crossroads. After starting out his UFC tenure red hot and surging into the rankings, Shahbazyan (12-4, 5-4 UFC) has hit a wall and won just once in five outings. Dobson (7-2, 1 NC; 1-2 UFC) has not struggled quite as much, and a win could right his ship in the Octagon to .500. Both men will try to establish themselves while referee Mark Smith watches on, and they lead off with hands being clapped together. Shahbazyan lands first with a low kick, and Dobson springs into action with a three-punch combo. Shahbazyan tries another lazy kick, and Dobson once more meets him with three in a row. Dobson is a coiled spring ready to strike, and Shahbazyan is more cautious and landing single strikes. Dobson shrugs off a calf kick and puts a one-two on the chin, and he takes two left hands on the temple to back him off for a moment. Dobson chips at the lead leg twice until they crash together throwing hands, and he tags “The Golden Boy” with a right hand. Shahbazyan is stunned and shoots for a takedown, and Dobson stands him up with a guillotine choke try. Dobson looks to make him pay with short shots, and Shahbazyan gloms onto him and hits a trip takedown. Dobson scrambles madly to get out of bad position, and he manages to flip him over and get into the guard of his foe. Dobson connects with left hands, and Shahbazyan answers with elbows off his back. Dobson clubs his opponent with right hands until Shahbazyan wraps him up and looks for an armbar. Dobson shrugs it off and absorbs more elbows to the side of the head as Shahbazyan squirms his way to the fence. Shahbazyan stands back up with the wall behind him, and he lands a knee on the inside and turns Dobson around in the clinch. Shahbazyan tries to wrangle Dobson down to the mat, and Dobson nearly falls on top of him until Shahbazyan muscles his way back up. Dobson pushes off out of the clinch and catches Shahbazyan with a left hand, and he beats Shahbazyan to the punch with a pair of strikes. Dobson lunges out with a left, and he chains a few punches together and gets caught with a vicious left hand.
Dobson crumbles to the mat, and Shahbazyan jackhammers him with punches and ferocious elbows. Dobson teeters on the edge of consciousness as Shahbazyan delivers punishment, and the strikes put him out as his head bounces off the mat.
Shahbazyan continues punching until Smith recognizes that Dobson is unconscious and he calls a halt to the fight. What a dramatic round for Shahbazyan, who outlasts a rough few minutes to knock Dobson unconscious. This marks the first time that Dobson has been finished as a professional, while clocking in as Shahbazyan’s first stoppage in the first round since 2019.
The Official Result
Edmen Shahbazyan def. A.J. Dobson R1 4:33 via KO (Elbows and Punches)
Angelo picks A.J. Dobson as an underdog, surprised by the plus 160 odds. He believes Dobson has plenty of power, wrestling, and chin to win. He plans to wait for prop bets, specifically a plus 3.5 round bet, to protect against a decision loss where Dobson wins at least one round.
Big Brady picks Edmen Shahbazyan, believing he is the better striker and more active. He notes Shahbazyan's takedown defense is not terrible and that Dobson is low volume. He acknowledges Shahbazyan's cardio issues but expects him to win the first two rounds and hold on for a 29-28 decision.
Cody picks Shahbazyan, believing he will outclass Dobson on the feet and land a knockout. He notes Shahbazyan's power and finishing ability, but also acknowledges his cardio issues. Cody bets the under 2.5 rounds, expecting a finish.
Daniel Vreeland leans toward Edmen Shahbazyan because he believes A.J. Dobson won't push the pace enough to expose Shahbazyan's cardio issues. He acknowledges Shahbazyan has broken in extended fights before but thinks Dobson's low output favors Shahbazyan. He is not confident enough to bet the favorite.
Shahbazyan has a striking and speed advantage, and his submission game is solid. However, his cardio is a major concern; he tends to slow down. Dobson is a low-output striker with mediocre wrestling, but he has a better gas tank. Shahbazyan should land easily and could finish early, possibly by submission. A small sprinkle on Dobson in round three is mentioned, but the pick is Shahbazyan inside the distance.
Paul leans toward the over 2.5 rounds, citing Shahbazyan's cardio issues and Dobson's durability. He thinks Dobson will try to wrestle and slow the fight down, which could lead to a decision. Paul picks Shahbazyan but expects a tough fight, possibly going to decision.
The MMA Guru picks Edmen Shahbazyan over A.J. Dobson, citing Shahbazyan's speed and accuracy. He thinks Shahbazyan will land a right hand and finish with uppercuts and knees against the cage. He predicts a first-round TKO, noting Dobson's lack of speed and inability to get takedowns.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Dobson | 0 | 67 of 134 | 50% | 98 of 176 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 4:33 |
| Tafon Nchukwi | 0 | 53 of 99 | 53% | 59 of 106 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | A.J. Dobson | 0 | 34 of 65 | 52% | 36 of 69 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
| Tafon Nchukwi | 0 | 24 of 45 | 53% | 24 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | A.J. Dobson | 0 | 28 of 51 | 54% | 29 of 53 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Tafon Nchukwi | 0 | 26 of 48 | 54% | 27 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | A.J. Dobson | 0 | 5 of 18 | 27% | 33 of 54 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:57 |
| Tafon Nchukwi | 0 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 8 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Dobson | 67 of 134 | 50% | 19 of 75 | 12 of 18 | 36 of 41 | 61 of 119 | 2 of 5 | 4 of 10 |
| Tafon Nchukwi | 53 of 99 | 53% | 11 of 47 | 12 of 15 | 30 of 37 | 49 of 92 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | A.J. Dobson | 34 of 65 | 52% | 6 of 31 | 10 of 15 | 18 of 19 | 31 of 59 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 6 |
| Tafon Nchukwi | 24 of 45 | 53% | 4 of 20 | 7 of 10 | 13 of 15 | 24 of 44 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | A.J. Dobson | 28 of 51 | 54% | 12 of 31 | 2 of 3 | 14 of 17 | 26 of 47 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Tafon Nchukwi | 26 of 48 | 54% | 6 of 25 | 5 of 5 | 15 of 18 | 22 of 42 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | A.J. Dobson | 5 of 18 | 27% | 1 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 | 4 of 13 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 4 |
| Tafon Nchukwi | 3 of 6 | 50% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Dobson as an underdog but with low confidence. He notes Dobson has better wrestling and a sturdier chin, but worries he may be afraid to strike with Nchukwi. He hasn't bet yet.
Big Brady picks Tafon Nchukwi to win by decision, but is not confident due to chin concerns. He praises Nchukwi's volume, cardio, and wrestling, but notes he has been knocked out in his last two losses. He thinks Nchukwi should be the better striker over 15 minutes and can win minutes. He worries about Dobson's power but believes Nchukwi's volume will carry him.
Cody picks Dobson, heavily fading Nchukwi. He questions Nchukwi's age (suspects he's older than listed), criticizes his slow speed, low volume, and lack of power. He notes Dobson is younger, faster, and still improving with a good camp (Matt Brown, Mark Coleman). He thinks Dobson's speed and wrestling will be key, and that Nchukwi may miss weight or look bad at weigh-ins.
James slightly favors Dobson, citing his speed and power. He thinks Dobson is faster and hits harder, which could be the difference. However, he calls the fight extremely close and says he would flip the lines to make Dobson -150 and Nchukwi +120. He is unsure if he will bet it due to the closeness.
Nchukwi is the better technical striker and should outwork Dobson over 15 minutes. Dobson lacks technical aspects in both wrestling and striking and relies on physical capabilities. Nchukwi is on a losing streak but had good moments in those fights. As long as he stays conscious, he should win by decision.
Paul also picks Dobson, agreeing with Cody's fade of Nchukwi. He notes Nchukwi's move to 185 hasn't worked due to lack of speed, and that Dobson showed grappling improvements in his last fight. He thinks Dobson's wrestling and athleticism will be too much for Nchukwi, and that weigh-ins will be crucial. He will likely bet Dobson if Nchukwi looks depleted.
The MMA Guru picks A.J. Dobson over Tafon Nchukwi, arguing that Dobson's losses to Jacob Malkoun and Armen Petrosyan are to quality unranked middleweights. He notes Dobson's finishing potential and experience since 2012, while Nchukwi is coming off two KO losses, which may make him hesitant. He trusts Dobson to win by finish.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Malkoun | 0 | 52 of 90 | 57% | 68 of 110 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:27 |
| A.J. Dobson | 0 | 80 of 128 | 62% | 183 of 255 | 6 of 16 | 37% | 0 | 0 | 9:17 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jacob Malkoun | 0 | 41 of 69 | 59% | 46 of 75 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| A.J. Dobson | 0 | 24 of 48 | 50% | 26 of 50 | 1 of 8 | 12% | 0 | 0 | 1:01 | |
| 2 | Jacob Malkoun | 0 | 4 of 12 | 33% | 5 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
| A.J. Dobson | 0 | 25 of 37 | 67% | 82 of 108 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:45 | |
| 3 | Jacob Malkoun | 0 | 7 of 9 | 77% | 17 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| A.J. Dobson | 0 | 31 of 43 | 72% | 75 of 97 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 4:31 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Malkoun | 52 of 90 | 57% | 41 of 79 | 6 of 6 | 5 of 5 | 44 of 78 | 5 of 9 | 3 of 3 |
| A.J. Dobson | 80 of 128 | 62% | 70 of 118 | 9 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 29 of 57 | 4 of 7 | 47 of 64 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jacob Malkoun | 41 of 69 | 59% | 33 of 61 | 4 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 37 of 62 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| A.J. Dobson | 24 of 48 | 50% | 22 of 46 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 23 of 46 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jacob Malkoun | 4 of 12 | 33% | 2 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 10 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| A.J. Dobson | 25 of 37 | 67% | 23 of 35 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 4 | 3 of 5 | 21 of 28 | |
| 3 | Jacob Malkoun | 7 of 9 | 77% | 6 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
| A.J. Dobson | 31 of 43 | 72% | 25 of 37 | 5 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 26 of 36 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Training partners of fan-favorite ex-UFC champs will come to blows in this middleweight encounter, as Strong Style Fight Team’s Dobson (6-0, 1 NC; 0-0 UFC) – home of Stipe Miocic – meets PMA Super Martial Arts prospect Malkoun (5-1, 1-1 UFC), a teammate of headliner Robert Whittaker. The third man in the cage for what could be a quick one is referee Herb Dean, who is ready for whatever comes his way as he bears witness to a touch of gloves. Dobson quickly fires off a right hand, and he slips back to sling a right hand as Malkoun just dodges in time. Dobson cracks his foe with a right hand, forcing the Aussie to shoot for a desperation takedown. Dobson gets lifted up in the air, but he slithers his legs down to the mat so that he can keep his balance and not get taken down, in an impressive display of balance. “Mamba” grinds Dobson against the fence until Dobson breaks off, and he loose a quick one-two that connects cleanly on the beard of Malkoun. Dobson tries to time a right hand low when Malkoun attacks for a takedown, and Dobson once more keeps his balance when Malkoun elevates him. The newcomer manages to break the grip, pushes off and returns to his preferred boxing range. Malkoun lets go with a few punches, but Dobson grabs him to knee him in the body a few times. Malkoun flicks out a jab, but Dobson ignores them and answers with some of his own. A quick chain of punches come out as Malkoun retreats, and he connects with a solid leg kick at the end of a combination. Dobson snaps the head back with a punch and goes up high with a kick, and every strike that lands seems to draw a reaction out of his opponent. Malkoun sits down on a right hand, but Dobson does not even budge when it smacks into his cheek. Dobson stands firm, delivering a couple more one-twos and a body kick. When Malkoun lifts his man’s leg up in pursuit of a takedown, Dobson hops back and bounces off the cage wall to get free. Dobson gives chase when he lands a few punches, and Malkoun is rocked from an accumulation of damage. Dobson takes the center of the cage and swats at his shaky man, clipping him with a left hook and a one-two that bounces off the side of the head. Malkoun drops down low for a single, lifting Dobson’s leg up in the air and finally securing a takedown. He can only maintain top position for a few seconds before the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dobson
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Dobson
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Dobson
Round 2
They clap hands to start of the second round, and Dobson, brimming with confidence, strides out with a few jabs. He gets off a right hand, and closes the distance to slam a knee into the Aussie’s midsection. As he lands a few more strikes, he draws out another takedown entry from “Mamba,” but that too fails as Dobson turns him around and knees him in the body. They jockey for position against the fence, and Malkoun stays doggedly in pursuit of a takedown but nothing presents itself. Dobson is able to get Malkoun to back off when he sets up a Thai clinch, and he misses a knee by an inch. Malkoun resets, crashes forward and secures a takedown. The American gets to his knees without much issue, stands back up, and gets wrenched back down with a mat return. Malkoun begins to smash Dobson in the side of the head with his fists, and Dobson is hurt and in trouble as cornerman Mark Coleman bellows for Dobson to get up. Malkoun does not let him up, raining down left hands as he keeps Dobson stuck on a knee. The strikes turn from damaging ones to more frustrating shots, but Malkoun is able to step over and sit down on Dobson’s thigh to ground him. Dobson thinks to explode, but Malkoun continues to grind and slug Dobson in the face with powerful left hands. Malkoun pursues a guillotine choke when working Dobson over, and he fails on that but does not let Dobson off the hook. Dobson bursts back to his feet with 10 seconds to go, and he pops Malkoun with a pair of punches before the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Malkoun
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Malkoun
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Malkoun
Round 3
The middleweights greet in the center of the cage, and Dobson appears energized when back upright again. He flicks out a jab that makes Malkoun blink it out a few times, and he catches Malkoun coming in with a right hand. The Aussie changes levels for a takedown, and the defense does not hold up for Dobson this time, as he gets pulled down to the mat. Dobson remains on his knees before jumping back up, and he succumbs to a mat return when Malkoun powers him back down. “Mamba” holds on from behind, landing sporadic right hands until the unbeaten fighter stands up. Malkoun continues his assault of takedown tries, and he sucks Dobson’s legs out beneath him and lands in half guard. Dobson wriggles himself to the corner between the floor and the wall, and Coleman’s encouragement is still somehow louder than all the boos raining down in the building combined. Malkoun does not register the crowd’s disappointment with his “embrace the grind” tactics, as he thumps down on Dobson with right hands. The fighters start talking to each other, with Dobson admitting his foe is stronger than he thought, and they continue to converse as Malkoun is pounding on him. Dobson tries to get into a slugfest from his back, with punches from his back, but Malkoun’s are considerably harder. Malkoun switches from punches to elbows as he staves off a standup from Dean, and precious seconds tick off the clock while Malkoun grinds him out. With just a few seconds left in the fight, Dobson somersaults backwards to get out of the position, stands up and wings a high kick, but it comes up short of the mark right before the fight ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Malkoun (29-28 Malkoun)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Malkoun (29-27 Malkoun)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Malkoun (29-28 Malkoun)
The Official Result
Jacob Malkoun def. A.J. Dobson via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks A.J. Dobson, citing his incredible hand speed and power. He worries that Malkoun could wrestle but believes Dobson's speed advantage will allow him to land three times for every one of Malkoun's looping strikes. He dismisses the 'fade the contender series' narrative and expects Dobson to laser down the middle and touch Malkoun up.
Big Brady sees this fight going one of two ways: Dobson knocking out Malkoun early or Malkoun wrestling Dobson to a decision. He leans toward Dobson because of his power and finishing ability, but admits he's not confident due to lack of information on Dobson's takedown defense. He compares it to Malkoun's win over Abdul Razak Alhassan where Malkoun used wrestling. Brady picks Dobson by first round knockout but says he can't be too confident.
Cody leans Malkoun but is not confident. He notes Malkoun's grappling looked good against Alhassan, but his chin is a concern after the Phil Hawes KO. He thinks Dobson is explosive and could land a big shot, but Malkoun's path is via takedowns.
Daniel Levi picks Jacob Malkoun for an upset win, but is hesitant about the early going. He notes that A.J. Dobson is a freak athlete with power, but tends to overexert and fatigue. Malkoun's game plan of attempting many takedowns could work if he weathers the early storm. Levi mentions that Dobson was finished by a bum in amateurs, but that was years ago.
Dobson has power and trains with strong camps, but his grappling and cardio are unproven. Malkoun will shoot for takedowns early, and if Dobson can't stop them or finish early, Malkoun could take over in later rounds. Dobson's only decision win was against a low-level opponent. The pick is based on trusting Dobson's camp and power, but it's a slight lean.
Paul picks Malkoun, citing his grappling advantage and ability to grind out a win. He notes Dobson is wild and may gas. He expects Malkoun to take Dobson down and control him, but acknowledges the volatility.
The MMA Guru picks Jacob Malkoun, believing he has overcome his debut jitters and will use his grappling to control A.J. Dobson. He notes Dobson's debut pressure and Malkoun's experience against better competition like Abdul Razak Alhassan.
Tafon Nchukwi - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Dobson | 0 | 67 of 134 | 50% | 98 of 176 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 4:33 |
| Tafon Nchukwi | 0 | 53 of 99 | 53% | 59 of 106 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | A.J. Dobson | 0 | 34 of 65 | 52% | 36 of 69 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
| Tafon Nchukwi | 0 | 24 of 45 | 53% | 24 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | A.J. Dobson | 0 | 28 of 51 | 54% | 29 of 53 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Tafon Nchukwi | 0 | 26 of 48 | 54% | 27 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | A.J. Dobson | 0 | 5 of 18 | 27% | 33 of 54 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:57 |
| Tafon Nchukwi | 0 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 8 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Dobson | 67 of 134 | 50% | 19 of 75 | 12 of 18 | 36 of 41 | 61 of 119 | 2 of 5 | 4 of 10 |
| Tafon Nchukwi | 53 of 99 | 53% | 11 of 47 | 12 of 15 | 30 of 37 | 49 of 92 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | A.J. Dobson | 34 of 65 | 52% | 6 of 31 | 10 of 15 | 18 of 19 | 31 of 59 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 6 |
| Tafon Nchukwi | 24 of 45 | 53% | 4 of 20 | 7 of 10 | 13 of 15 | 24 of 44 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | A.J. Dobson | 28 of 51 | 54% | 12 of 31 | 2 of 3 | 14 of 17 | 26 of 47 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Tafon Nchukwi | 26 of 48 | 54% | 6 of 25 | 5 of 5 | 15 of 18 | 22 of 42 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | A.J. Dobson | 5 of 18 | 27% | 1 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 | 4 of 13 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 4 |
| Tafon Nchukwi | 3 of 6 | 50% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Dobson as an underdog but with low confidence. He notes Dobson has better wrestling and a sturdier chin, but worries he may be afraid to strike with Nchukwi. He hasn't bet yet.
Big Brady picks Tafon Nchukwi to win by decision, but is not confident due to chin concerns. He praises Nchukwi's volume, cardio, and wrestling, but notes he has been knocked out in his last two losses. He thinks Nchukwi should be the better striker over 15 minutes and can win minutes. He worries about Dobson's power but believes Nchukwi's volume will carry him.
Cody picks Dobson, heavily fading Nchukwi. He questions Nchukwi's age (suspects he's older than listed), criticizes his slow speed, low volume, and lack of power. He notes Dobson is younger, faster, and still improving with a good camp (Matt Brown, Mark Coleman). He thinks Dobson's speed and wrestling will be key, and that Nchukwi may miss weight or look bad at weigh-ins.
James slightly favors Dobson, citing his speed and power. He thinks Dobson is faster and hits harder, which could be the difference. However, he calls the fight extremely close and says he would flip the lines to make Dobson -150 and Nchukwi +120. He is unsure if he will bet it due to the closeness.
Nchukwi is the better technical striker and should outwork Dobson over 15 minutes. Dobson lacks technical aspects in both wrestling and striking and relies on physical capabilities. Nchukwi is on a losing streak but had good moments in those fights. As long as he stays conscious, he should win by decision.
Paul also picks Dobson, agreeing with Cody's fade of Nchukwi. He notes Nchukwi's move to 185 hasn't worked due to lack of speed, and that Dobson showed grappling improvements in his last fight. He thinks Dobson's wrestling and athleticism will be too much for Nchukwi, and that weigh-ins will be crucial. He will likely bet Dobson if Nchukwi looks depleted.
The MMA Guru picks A.J. Dobson over Tafon Nchukwi, arguing that Dobson's losses to Jacob Malkoun and Armen Petrosyan are to quality unranked middleweights. He notes Dobson's finishing potential and experience since 2012, while Nchukwi is coming off two KO losses, which may make him hesitant. He trusts Dobson to win by finish.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Ulberg | 1 | 15 of 19 | 78% | 15 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Tafon Nchukwi | 0 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Ulberg | 1 | 15 of 19 | 78% | 15 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Tafon Nchukwi | 0 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Ulberg | 15 of 19 | 78% | 9 of 13 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 12 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 |
| Tafon Nchukwi | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Ulberg | 15 of 19 | 78% | 9 of 13 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 12 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 |
| Tafon Nchukwi | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Carlos Ulberg in a tough striking match. He acknowledges Tafon Nchukwi looked amazing in his last fight before getting caught, but worries that Nchukwi may be gun-shy coming off a KO loss less than three months ago. He believes Ulberg is the more technical striker and if Nchukwi lets Ulberg get into a rhythm, he'll lose a technical kickboxing match.
Big Brady picks Tafon Nchukwi to win by decision. He believes Nchukwi is the more complete MMA fighter with paths to victory via takedowns, cage control, and cardio. He notes Ulberg's untested takedown defense and ground game, and that Nchukwi has successfully taken down strong opponents. He favors Ulberg on the feet but thinks Nchukwi will make it an MMA fight and grind out a decision. He says the line should be flipped.
Cody leans towards Nchukwi, citing Ulberg's cardio issues and inexperience. He thinks Nchukwi's physical strength and wrestling could be key, especially in the smaller Apex cage. He also likes Nchukwi by submission at 18-1 as a longshot prop.
Paul agrees with Cody, noting that Ulberg hasn't looked good and Nchukwi has a path via takedowns. He thinks the price is even and Nchukwi is live.
The host picks Tafon Nchukwi as an underdog, believing he will make improvements at 27 while Ulberg is older and less likely to improve. He notes Nchukwi nearly beat Azamat Murzakanov and looked good against Mike Rodriguez. He expects a KO in the second or third round, citing Ulberg's lack of toughness and Nchukwi's power.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Azamat Murzakanov | 0 | 43 of 98 | 43% | 50 of 105 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
| Tafon Nchukwi | 1 | 28 of 69 | 40% | 28 of 70 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 0:39 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Azamat Murzakanov | 0 | 17 of 40 | 42% | 24 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
| Tafon Nchukwi | 0 | 13 of 31 | 41% | 13 of 32 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:11 | |
| 2 | Azamat Murzakanov | 0 | 25 of 52 | 48% | 25 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tafon Nchukwi | 0 | 12 of 31 | 38% | 12 of 31 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:26 | |
| 3 | Azamat Murzakanov | 0 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 1 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tafon Nchukwi | 1 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Azamat Murzakanov | 43 of 98 | 43% | 14 of 59 | 17 of 27 | 12 of 12 | 35 of 88 | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
| Tafon Nchukwi | 28 of 69 | 40% | 25 of 60 | 3 of 8 | 0 of 1 | 26 of 67 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Azamat Murzakanov | 17 of 40 | 42% | 5 of 22 | 7 of 13 | 5 of 5 | 12 of 33 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Tafon Nchukwi | 13 of 31 | 41% | 11 of 24 | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Azamat Murzakanov | 25 of 52 | 48% | 8 of 32 | 10 of 13 | 7 of 7 | 22 of 49 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Tafon Nchukwi | 12 of 31 | 38% | 11 of 29 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 10 of 29 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Azamat Murzakanov | 1 of 6 | 16% | 1 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Tafon Nchukwi | 3 of 7 | 42% | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Azamat Murzakanov, expecting him to use his wrestling despite being known for striking. He notes that Tafon Nchukwi has more high-level experience but tends to back up and slow down under pressure. He believes Murzakanov's forward pressure and wrestling will be the difference.
Big Brady picks Azamat Murzakanov to win by first-round TKO. He notes Murzakanov is very well-rounded with heavy hands and a solid top game, but has cardio concerns since he's never been to a third round. He thinks Murzakanov can hurt Nchukwi on the feet or take him down and finish him, referencing Nchukwi's poor get-up game against Jung Park. However, he won't bet the fight due to the cardio and low-output risks.
Cody is confident in Murzakanov, citing his speed, power, and well-rounded skills. He notes Nchukwi's size but believes Murzakanov's speed and pressure will be too much. He mentions a parlay with Ankalaev.
Daniel Levi picks Azamat Murzakanov, stating that he is a little more experienced, smarter, and more comfortable in the cage. He thinks Murzakanov will point-fight for three rounds or possibly find a finish. Levi acknowledges Tafon Nchukwi's power and potential but believes Murzakanov's experience and fewer mistakes will be the difference.
Murzakanov is a fast, agile striker with good cardio and takedown ability. He can close distance quickly and has power in both hands. Nchukwi has speed and cardio issues, and may overextend. Murzakanov is expected to outwork Nchukwi over 15 minutes or finish late, with a decision at plus 320 being a value play.
Paul is confident in Murzakanov, citing his speed, power, and well-rounded skills. He notes Nchukwi's size but believes Murzakanov's speed and pressure will be too much. He mentions a parlay with Ankalaev.
The MMA Guru picks Azamat Murzakanov over Tafon Nchukwi, citing his nasty hands and power advantage. He notes that Murzakanov has laid opponents out cold and has grappling to fall back on, referencing a video of him beating Ion Cuțelaba in a grappling competition. He predicts a first-round TKO, trusting Murzakanov's physicality and technique despite Nchukwi having good stand-up of his own.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JunYong Park | 0 | 71 of 145 | 48% | 79 of 155 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 2 | 0 | 3:49 |
| Tafon Nchukwi | 0 | 58 of 136 | 42% | 64 of 144 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:34 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JunYong Park | 0 | 30 of 69 | 43% | 30 of 69 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tafon Nchukwi | 0 | 30 of 69 | 43% | 32 of 71 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | JunYong Park | 0 | 16 of 35 | 45% | 16 of 35 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:34 |
| Tafon Nchukwi | 0 | 21 of 43 | 48% | 24 of 48 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:34 | |
| 3 | JunYong Park | 0 | 25 of 41 | 60% | 33 of 51 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 | 0 | 3:15 |
| Tafon Nchukwi | 0 | 7 of 24 | 29% | 8 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JunYong Park | 71 of 145 | 48% | 61 of 134 | 4 of 5 | 6 of 6 | 48 of 117 | 3 of 3 | 20 of 25 |
| Tafon Nchukwi | 58 of 136 | 42% | 20 of 83 | 25 of 33 | 13 of 20 | 51 of 127 | 7 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JunYong Park | 30 of 69 | 43% | 24 of 62 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 4 | 28 of 67 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Tafon Nchukwi | 30 of 69 | 43% | 9 of 39 | 13 of 16 | 8 of 14 | 25 of 63 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | JunYong Park | 16 of 35 | 45% | 13 of 32 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 15 of 34 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Tafon Nchukwi | 21 of 43 | 48% | 9 of 28 | 8 of 10 | 4 of 5 | 19 of 40 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | JunYong Park | 25 of 41 | 60% | 24 of 40 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 20 of 25 |
| Tafon Nchukwi | 7 of 24 | 29% | 2 of 16 | 4 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady likes Park's durability and chin, noting he has never been knocked out. He thinks Park will mix in takedowns to wear out Nchukwi, who may have cardio issues despite a good gas tank in his last fight. Brady is concerned about Nchukwi's striking defense after being hit by Pickett. He calls it a close fight that can go either way but leans Park by decision. He explicitly says no bet for him.
Daniel Levi picks Tafon Nchukwi, arguing that African power can make up for experience and technique. He notes Nchukwi's good technique, cardio, and ability to go the distance as seen in the Pickett fight. He believes Nchukwi's takedown defense and get-up game will neutralize Park's wrestling, and that Nchukwi will outstrike Park. He respects Park but thinks Nchukwi is the better athlete.
The host favors JunYong Park as a live underdog, citing his durability, cardio, and ability to push the pace. He believes Nchukwi is one-dimensional and will struggle if he doesn't get an early knockout. He likes the over 2.5 rounds, fight goes to decision, and Park by decision props.
The MMA Guru picks Tafon Nchukwi over JunYong Park, acknowledging it's a tough fight to predict. He thinks Nchukwi's size and strength will allow him to stop Park's takedowns and win by decision, possibly 30-27. He notes Nchukwi showed he can go three rounds in his last fight, which alleviates cardio concerns.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tafon Nchukwi | 1 | 120 of 187 | 64% | 159 of 234 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:51 |
| Jamie Pickett | 0 | 40 of 81 | 49% | 40 of 81 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0:34 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tafon Nchukwi | 0 | 35 of 58 | 60% | 43 of 66 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:21 |
| Jamie Pickett | 0 | 9 of 17 | 52% | 9 of 17 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:32 | |
| 2 | Tafon Nchukwi | 0 | 41 of 69 | 59% | 54 of 82 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:53 |
| Jamie Pickett | 0 | 25 of 43 | 58% | 25 of 43 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Tafon Nchukwi | 1 | 44 of 60 | 73% | 62 of 86 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:37 |
| Jamie Pickett | 0 | 6 of 21 | 28% | 6 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tafon Nchukwi | 120 of 187 | 64% | 70 of 133 | 49 of 53 | 1 of 1 | 59 of 118 | 57 of 63 | 4 of 6 |
| Jamie Pickett | 40 of 81 | 49% | 28 of 68 | 8 of 9 | 4 of 4 | 39 of 77 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tafon Nchukwi | 35 of 58 | 60% | 22 of 44 | 13 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 20 of 41 | 15 of 17 | 0 of 0 |
| Jamie Pickett | 9 of 17 | 52% | 7 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 16 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Tafon Nchukwi | 41 of 69 | 59% | 19 of 45 | 22 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 41 | 25 of 28 | 0 of 0 |
| Jamie Pickett | 25 of 43 | 58% | 15 of 33 | 6 of 6 | 4 of 4 | 24 of 42 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Tafon Nchukwi | 44 of 60 | 73% | 29 of 44 | 14 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 23 of 36 | 17 of 18 | 4 of 6 |
| Jamie Pickett | 6 of 21 | 28% | 6 of 20 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 19 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Tafon Nchukwi over Jamie Pickett, noting Nchukwi's power and takedown defense (stuffed all takedowns seen on tape). He believes Pickett has no path to victory, as he cannot take Nchukwi down and will likely get knocked out. Brady predicts a first-round KO, though he notes Nchukwi's low output and the weight cut to 185 as potential concerns.
The host is confident in Nchukwi, citing his power, combinations, and high guard. He notes Pickett's tall-man defense and cardio issues. He predicts a first or second-round KO for Nchukwi and considers him a safe parlay piece, but advises waiting for weigh-ins due to Nchukwi's weight cut.
The Guru picks Tafon Nchukwi, believing he is a massive favorite. He notes Nchukwi's youth and improvement, and that he knocked out William Knight. He criticizes Jamie Pickett's level of competition and says Pickett is moving up in weight. He predicts a brutal first-round KO for Nchukwi.
Expert Picks (7)
Angelo picks Dobson as an underdog but with low confidence. He notes Dobson has better wrestling and a sturdier chin, but worries he may be afraid to strike with Nchukwi. He hasn't bet yet.
Big Brady picks Tafon Nchukwi to win by decision, but is not confident due to chin concerns. He praises Nchukwi's volume, cardio, and wrestling, but notes he has been knocked out in his last two losses. He thinks Nchukwi should be the better striker over 15 minutes and can win minutes. He worries about Dobson's power but believes Nchukwi's volume will carry him.
Cody picks Dobson, heavily fading Nchukwi. He questions Nchukwi's age (suspects he's older than listed), criticizes his slow speed, low volume, and lack of power. He notes Dobson is younger, faster, and still improving with a good camp (Matt Brown, Mark Coleman). He thinks Dobson's speed and wrestling will be key, and that Nchukwi may miss weight or look bad at weigh-ins.
James slightly favors Dobson, citing his speed and power. He thinks Dobson is faster and hits harder, which could be the difference. However, he calls the fight extremely close and says he would flip the lines to make Dobson -150 and Nchukwi +120. He is unsure if he will bet it due to the closeness.
Nchukwi is the better technical striker and should outwork Dobson over 15 minutes. Dobson lacks technical aspects in both wrestling and striking and relies on physical capabilities. Nchukwi is on a losing streak but had good moments in those fights. As long as he stays conscious, he should win by decision.
Paul also picks Dobson, agreeing with Cody's fade of Nchukwi. He notes Nchukwi's move to 185 hasn't worked due to lack of speed, and that Dobson showed grappling improvements in his last fight. He thinks Dobson's wrestling and athleticism will be too much for Nchukwi, and that weigh-ins will be crucial. He will likely bet Dobson if Nchukwi looks depleted.
The MMA Guru picks A.J. Dobson over Tafon Nchukwi, arguing that Dobson's losses to Jacob Malkoun and Armen Petrosyan are to quality unranked middleweights. He notes Dobson's finishing potential and experience since 2012, while Nchukwi is coming off two KO losses, which may make him hesitant. He trusts Dobson to win by finish.
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