Career Averages - Montel Jackson
Career Averages - Rani Yahya
Montel Jackson
Rani Yahya
Montel Jackson - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montel Jackson | 1 | 35 of 66 | 53% | 72 of 104 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Raoni Barcelos | 0 | 21 of 38 | 55% | 33 of 51 | 6 of 18 | 33% | 2 | 0 | 7:45 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montel Jackson | 1 | 14 of 24 | 58% | 46 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Raoni Barcelos | 0 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 7 of 8 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 2:49 | |
| 2 | Montel Jackson | 0 | 13 of 19 | 68% | 15 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Raoni Barcelos | 0 | 8 of 17 | 47% | 15 of 25 | 1 of 7 | 14% | 1 | 0 | 2:14 | |
| 3 | Montel Jackson | 0 | 8 of 23 | 34% | 11 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Raoni Barcelos | 0 | 10 of 17 | 58% | 11 of 18 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 0 | 0 | 2:42 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montel Jackson | 35 of 66 | 53% | 26 of 57 | 8 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 26 of 53 | 3 of 5 | 6 of 8 |
| Raoni Barcelos | 21 of 38 | 55% | 7 of 18 | 8 of 11 | 6 of 9 | 13 of 30 | 7 of 7 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montel Jackson | 14 of 24 | 58% | 10 of 20 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 13 | 1 of 3 | 6 of 8 |
| Raoni Barcelos | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Montel Jackson | 13 of 19 | 68% | 9 of 15 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 17 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Raoni Barcelos | 8 of 17 | 47% | 2 of 7 | 3 of 5 | 3 of 5 | 6 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Montel Jackson | 8 of 23 | 34% | 7 of 22 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Raoni Barcelos | 10 of 17 | 58% | 5 of 11 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 5 of 12 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Jackson (-175); Barcelos (+140)
Round 1
The fighters in this next main card offering weigh roughly half of what the two heavyweights in the last bout amassed, and speed kills at 135 pounds. “Quik” Jackson (15-3, 9-3 UFC) saw his mighty six-fight win streak come to a halt last year when Deiveson Figueiredo narrowly outpointed him, so he is in search of getting back in the green. Ageless wonder Barcelos (21-5, 10-4 UFC), who turns 39 next Friday, has won four in a row and could be poised to make a run. Referee Jason Herzog will make sure everything is copacetic.
The longer Jackson takes a few seconds to measure his opponent, and with his long reach, he clips Jackson with a head kick that shakes the elder statesman to his core. Barcelos hits the ground, and Jackson proceeds to hammer him with concussive blows. Barcelos takes them mostly on the chin, surviving and moving enough to stave off Herzog, all while huge strikes collide with his head time and again. Barcelos gets through the initial assault and turns to his knees in pursuit of a takedown, pushing the longer fighter against the wall. When there is no takedown to come from it, he spins out and ducks knowing that Jackson will—and does—swing at him. Jackson’s jab is money, and his follow-up left is destroying Barcelos’ face. Barcelos right eye is swelling and badly damaged halfway through the round.
Ignoring the pain, Barcelos closes in and trips Jackson to the floor. Barcelos climbs on top, and when Jackson tries to set something up off his back, Barcelos powerslams him. Jackson scrambles upon the impact, and Barcelos grabs his shorts in hopes of hanging on. Herzog admonishes him for the foul, and Jackson squirms his way out. Barcelos looks to jab his way in, but the range is a seemingly insurmountable task for the older man when he tries to box. Barcelos has to sell out and rush forward to swing, but when he gets close enough, he grabs hold of “Quik” and hurls him to the mat like a junior high wrestling coach against a new recruit. Jackson turns to his side, and Barcelos starts fishing for rear-naked choke. On the third attempt, it is under the chin, but Jackson is not about to give up. Time is up before the submission is complete.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Jackson
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Jackson
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Jackson
Round 2
Herzog informs Barcelos between rounds to not grab the shorts or commit any position-changing fouls lest he deduct a point. They engage again, with Barcelos slowly, methodically working his way in. He looks to counter even with Jackson the far longer man, and he does not sell out or get reckless to advance. When he finds his openings, he draws ever closer, until he is near enough to crash the pocket and go for a level change. Jackson keeps his balance with his back to the cage, and he works his way out and resets.
Barcelos stays pressing the pace, walking through the fire that Jackson swings at him with every single effective blow. Barcelos takes the strikes on the chin and looks to engage his grappling. He does not force the action or put himself off-balance, instead measuring his blows efficiently to set up and further open up offense. Barcelos beats on his opponent until Jackson turns around to give up his back, and with seconds to spare, Barcelos once again goes for the rear-naked choke. The Brazilian wraps his left arm under the chin, and Jackson keeps his hand ready to tap but hears his corner saying he can make it to the bell and does just that.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos
Round 3
The grizzled veteran—14 UFC fights to Jackson’s 12—Barcelos goes right after Jackson in the final frame, looking to take the offense out of his opponent and prevent him from landing hard on him. As he controls Jackson against the cage for a prolonged time, he cannot secure a level change. Jackson works his way out, and Barcelos chases him and gives him a right hand on the jaw to think about. Jackson appears surprise, and he fires big punches at Barcelos that Barcelos ducks. Barcelos gets his hands on Jackson, and he sweeps the leg and puts Jackson down.
Jackson works back to his feet and lifts Barcelos off the ground with a knee in the clinch. Barcelos throws one back, and they trade hands up close until Jackson gets the space he was seeking. Jackson doubles up on a jab to the temple, whipping a rear-leg high kick at him that Barcelos blocks in time. Barcelos walks through the offense to wrap his hands around Jackson, where he takes him for a ride with a trip and throw. Jackson bounces back up, and Barcelos looks for a mat return with a single. Barcelos boots Jackson right in the face, bloodying his nose with it, and he lets Jackson charge him to turn that against him. Like the previous two rounds, Barcelos takes the back position and is fishing for a choke. Also like those rounds, there is no truly deep submission, so time expires and it’s all up to the judges. It could go either way.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos (29-28 Barcelos)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos (29-28 Barcelos)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos (29-28 Barcelos)
The Official Result
Raoni Barcelos def. Montel Jackson via Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
Angelo leans on Montel Jackson, noting his power and wrestling background. He points out that Jackson's three UFC losses came when he couldn't defend takedowns, but believes Raoni Barcelos's age may prevent him from getting takedowns. He worries that Jackson might be gunshy due to wrestling concerns, which could allow Barcelos to win with empty takedowns. He says Montel should win but the fight could get weird.
Big Brady picks Montel Jackson but with hesitation. He acknowledges Jackson's talent and power but notes his inconsistency and lack of effort in some fights. He believes if Jackson shows up, he can knock out Barcelos, who is older and has a questionable chin. However, he warns that Jackson could lose if he doesn't try.
The host notes Jackson has many physical advantages but is mentally inconsistent, often passive and inactive. Barcelos is mentally strong, high output, and aggressive. He believes Barcelos has a good chance if Jackson is not at his best. He prefers Barcelos +3.5 because Jackson lacks killer instinct and often goes to decision, and Barcelos should win at least one round.
James picks Barcelos as an underdog, believing his veteran skills and pocket boxing will overcome Jackson's power. He thinks Barcelos can follow the blueprint from Figueiredo's win over Jackson, using takedowns and pressure to win a decision or late submission.
Barcelos is on a four-fight winning streak with improved durability and a well-rounded game. He can use lateral movement, kicks, and wrestling to neutralize Jackson's power. Jackson is gun-shy and struggles against wrestlers. Barcelos has more paths to victory and should win a decision, though he risks getting knocked out if he gets caught clean.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deiveson Figueiredo | 0 | 23 of 43 | 53% | 23 of 44 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 2:18 |
| Montel Jackson | 0 | 30 of 70 | 42% | 30 of 70 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deiveson Figueiredo | 0 | 8 of 13 | 61% | 8 of 14 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:08 |
| Montel Jackson | 0 | 8 of 20 | 40% | 8 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Deiveson Figueiredo | 0 | 7 of 16 | 43% | 7 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:10 |
| Montel Jackson | 0 | 14 of 32 | 43% | 14 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Deiveson Figueiredo | 0 | 8 of 14 | 57% | 8 of 14 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Montel Jackson | 0 | 8 of 18 | 44% | 8 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deiveson Figueiredo | 23 of 43 | 53% | 4 of 19 | 9 of 11 | 10 of 13 | 22 of 42 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Montel Jackson | 30 of 70 | 42% | 14 of 51 | 7 of 8 | 9 of 11 | 28 of 67 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deiveson Figueiredo | 8 of 13 | 61% | 0 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 4 of 5 | 7 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Montel Jackson | 8 of 20 | 40% | 4 of 14 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 4 | 7 of 18 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Deiveson Figueiredo | 7 of 16 | 43% | 2 of 9 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 4 | 7 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Montel Jackson | 14 of 32 | 43% | 7 of 24 | 4 of 4 | 3 of 4 | 14 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Deiveson Figueiredo | 8 of 14 | 57% | 2 of 6 | 2 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 8 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Montel Jackson | 8 of 18 | 44% | 3 of 13 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 7 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Jackson (-300); Figueiredo (+250)
Round 1
On his first career losing streak, Figueiredo (24-5-1, 13-5-1 UFC) at the tender age of 37 would like nothing more than to turn things around at the expense of “Quik” Jackson (15-2, 9-2 UFC). Both bantamweights have plenty of firepower, so referee Jason Herzog will need to don his proverbial hard hat. Fists are bumped before they are traded.
Figueiredo lets loose first with a low kick, and he ducks a huge right hand to clinch up. They split before anything of merit lands, and Figueiredo resets and reaches with another low kick. Jackson plants a one-two on the Brazilian’s jaw, who responds with a heavier-than-expected body kick. Figueiredo kicks low and ducks the anticipated counter, and he looks for a body lock to muscle the longer man to the floor. “Daico” manages to leverage Jackson to the mat, where he starts hunting for a way to pass the guard. Jackson uses butterfly hooks to keep the former flyweight king at bay, and he briefly gives up his back when scrambling. Figueiredo takes it, and he has to let it go when Jackson explodes to his feet. Figueiredo drives a knee to the chest on the way up, and he retreats.
Jackson smacks him with an inside calf kick, and he doubles up on jabs to the body. Figueiredo turns his hips to a hard leg kick, and he swipes out with a right hand when Jackson advances towards him. The calf kicks land from both sides, and Figueiredo sprints in and ducks down to clip Jackson with a big right hand. Jackson fires back on the way back, catching the Brazilian as well but off-balance so his weight is not behind it. The two hand-fight, and Figueiredo boots his foe in the sternum. Jackson catches the leg, but when he cannot do anything with it, he releases it and bops Figueiredo in the nose with a jab. Figueiredo runs towards Jackson and cracks him with a right hand that makes Jackson’s knees buckle, and one final body kick from the former champ ends the round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Figueiredo
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Figueiredo
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Figueiredo
Round 2
Figueiredo jogs out of his corner looking to throw hands, and he uses the punches to set up a takedown. Less than 20 seconds into the round, and Figueiredo has secured full mount. Jackson turns to escape, and Figueiredo uses the opportunity to snatch up an arm-triangle choke. “Deus da Guerra” jumps to the side to complete the sub, and rather than wait around for it to be over, Jackson somehow busts out of it and stops the choke from materializing. Figueiredo smoothly slides around to take the back, and he fishes for something but does not have any openings. Jackson works to his feet before long, and he stabs out a jab that bloodies up the bridge of the former flyweight champ’s nose. Figueiredo motions low to fake a takedown, and he kicks where he reached towards instead.
The feints of the Brazilian draw out reactions, allowing him to rip kicks to the body when not pump-faking. Jackson swats out with a single right hook, and Figueiredo does the same. Volume is low and both men are tentative to engage, and even more cautious committing to much. Figueiredo hops away from a couple half-hearted jabs and pitches a kick to the midsection. Jackson sticks and moves, and he just evades a looping right hand intent on lopping his head off at the stem. Jackson peppers the reddened nose of his foe with a few more jabs, and he takes a low kick on the way out. Jackson sits down on two punches and a knee, and Figueiredo is fired up and lets go with his own punches. A right hand from the Brazilian appears to wobble Jackson with seconds to spare, and the two duke it out until the bell sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Figueiredo
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Figueiredo
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Figueiredo
Round 3
Bounding out of his corner ready for five more minutes of bantamweight melee, Figueiredo strikes first with a jumping stomp kick to the knee. The Brazilian goes high with his lead leg, and he sways to take the brunt out of a jab. Figueiredo backs his man up with surging punches, and he takes a flush jab on the forehead. Figueiredo drills the front leg with a kick, and he races forward and slips. Jackson does not capitalize on this, instead allowing Figueiredo to stand up so he can push out one single jab. Jackson chambers and fires off a hard low kick, and Figueiredo grins at him and briefly switches stances before recovering and loosing a body kick that just misses.
Jackson tags Figueiredo walking in with a left and then a right, and he times the bounces of the Brazilian to moderate effect. Jackson scores a body kick, and Figueiredo grimaces at him. Jackson kicks the same spot once more, resulting in a clinch and some knees from the Brazilian. Jackson uses a body lock to elevate the former champ and dump him on his back, and Figueiredo bounces off the mat as if he had springs in his shorts without taking a strike. Jackson backs off his opponent, but all he can muster is a low kick that is answered harder by the ex-champ. The crowd is completely out of the fight, disappointed by four straight losses for the locals, even though one might win this lackluster match. Figueiredo waves Jackson on with 10 seconds to go, and he boots Jackson in the belly with a kick. Pointing down again, he tricks Jackson to engage and shoots for a single. The bummer of a bout ends with Figueiredo looking for a hug.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Jackson (29-28 Figueiredo)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Figueiredo (30-27 Figueiredo)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Figueiredo (30-27 Figueiredo)
The Official Result
Deiveson Figueiredo def. Montel Jackson via Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Montel Jackson, believing he will rise to the occasion. He notes Figueiredo is a shell of his former self, older and slower. He acknowledges Figueiredo's past success but thinks Montel's wrestling and power will be enough. He also mentions Figueiredo plus 3.5 as a possible bet.
Big Brady picks Montel Jackson to win by first-round knockout. He notes Jackson's significant size advantage (5-inch height, 7.5-inch reach) and power, having many knockdowns in the UFC. He believes Figueiredo has taken too much damage and is now 37, and that Jackson will keep the fight standing and land a knockout. He expects Jackson to stuff takedowns easily.
Cody also picks Figueiredo, calling it a 'dog or pass' fight. He highlights Jackson's low output and susceptibility to takedowns, while Figueiredo's experience and power make him live. He suggests waiting for a better price or live betting.
James picks Figueiredo as a value underdog, citing Figgy's superior jiu-jitsu and wrestling as a path to victory via submission or control. He notes Montel Jackson's wrestling vulnerability exposed in past fights and Figueiredo's ability to get takedowns. However, he admits low confidence due to Figueiredo's recent losses and age, and says he would not bet on Montel at -275.
Lucrative James picks Montel Jackson but is not confident. He notes Figueiredo's age and declining durability, but also his takedown and jiu-jitsu advantage. He believes Jackson's wrestling is a weakness, but Figueiredo may not be able to exploit it. He sees Jackson winning by decision, but wouldn't bet at -305.
Manpreet leans towards Jackson but is not confident enough to bet the moneyline at -300. He believes Jackson's reach and height advantages will be key, and that Jackson's power will find a knockout as Figueiredo slows down. However, he acknowledges Figueiredo's grappling threat and notes that if Figueiredo can get control time, he could win. He considers the KO prop for Jackson and the submission prop for Figueiredo at +800 as alternatives.
Paul picks Figueiredo as a dog, arguing that Montel Jackson's -300 price is unjustified. He points out Jackson's low volume striking and lack of elite wins, while Figueiredo has faced top competition and has the wrestling and power to win a close fight in Brazil. He sees value in the underdog.
The MMA Guru picks Montel Jackson over Deiveson Figueiredo, believing Figueiredo is past his prime and looked poor against Sandhagen. He notes Jackson has a reach advantage and is durable. He predicts a decision win for Jackson.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montel Jackson | 0 | 30 of 66 | 45% | 67 of 106 | 2 of 8 | 25% | 1 | 0 | 3:37 |
| Daniel Marcos | 0 | 17 of 32 | 53% | 24 of 43 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 0 | 0 | 5:45 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montel Jackson | 0 | 4 of 12 | 33% | 22 of 31 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 2:07 |
| Daniel Marcos | 0 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 7 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:26 | |
| 2 | Montel Jackson | 0 | 15 of 28 | 53% | 22 of 37 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:26 |
| Daniel Marcos | 0 | 7 of 12 | 58% | 7 of 12 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 1:55 | |
| 3 | Montel Jackson | 0 | 11 of 26 | 42% | 23 of 38 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 | 0 | 1:04 |
| Daniel Marcos | 0 | 6 of 13 | 46% | 10 of 20 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:24 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montel Jackson | 30 of 66 | 45% | 25 of 58 | 1 of 3 | 4 of 5 | 27 of 62 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Daniel Marcos | 17 of 32 | 53% | 5 of 18 | 5 of 7 | 7 of 7 | 13 of 27 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montel Jackson | 4 of 12 | 33% | 2 of 8 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Daniel Marcos | 4 of 7 | 57% | 2 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Montel Jackson | 15 of 28 | 53% | 12 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 15 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Daniel Marcos | 7 of 12 | 58% | 1 of 5 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 4 | 5 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Montel Jackson | 11 of 26 | 42% | 11 of 25 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 23 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Daniel Marcos | 6 of 13 | 46% | 2 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 11 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Jackson (-205), Marcos (+170)
Round 1
Bantamweights are up again in Des Moines, this time red-hot rising contenders Marcos and Jackson, with Gary Copeland on referee duty. Jackson is southpaw, Marcos orthodox, and they exchange a couple of glancing punches from outside before Marcos closes the distance and clinches with the much taller American. Jackson grounds Marcos with a beautiful foot sweep, and takes top position in Marcos’ guard. He lets “Soncora” up quickly, and they go back to kickboxing, where Marcos continues to try and solve the puzzle of Jackson’s huge height and reach advantages. They clinch again, this time with Marcos’ back against the fence, and Jackson drives his knee into Marcos’ thigh and midsection before they break off and move away from the fence. Marcos rushes forward and pushes Jackson to the fence, where he takes a turn firing short knees as they vie for head position and wrist control. Marcos changes levels, peels Jackson off the fence and takes him down. Marcos is in Jackson’s guard, but only briefly, as Jackson hips out, gives his back up and stands. He turns to face Marcos, completing the escape, just before the horn.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Jackson
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Jackson
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Jackson
Round 2
Marcos comes forward, working to navigate his foe’s reach by springing in with big overhand rights. Marcos jumps in again, but this time he changes levels and completes a takedown in the center of the Octagon. Marcos is in Jackson’s guard, but Jackson will not concede the position, keeping his hips active and looking to get his feet on Marcos’ hips and kick him off. Marcos lets his man up and they go back to work on the feet. Jackson is connecting with a fast, long jab that comes up from near his beltline, while Marcos is keeping his chin tucked and looking for his moment to land a big punch. Marcos steps into the pocket and shoves Jackson to the fence, where they exchange a couple of blows in close before breaking the clinch. Marcos wades right back into range and drives the taller man to the cage again. He locks his hands and, after a moment’s adjustment, hoists Jackson and puts him on the ground. Jackson springs right back to his feet and they move back to the fence. Jackson reverses position and is pushing Marcos into the chain-link at the end of the round.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Jackson
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Jackson
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Jackson
Round 3
The final round begins with Marcos landing a nice body kick to the open side. Jackson comes back with a pair of punches, one of which might have grazed Marcos’ right eye in an awkward way, as he comes away guarding that side of his face closely. Jackson moves in and tries for a takedown near the fence, but Marcos sprawls well in close quarters. Marcos goes for a takedown of his own and gets Jackson off his feet, then moves to the back as Jackson gets back up. Marcos works from standing back control for a few moments before Jackson spins out of his grasp and off of the fence. Marcos immediately closes the distance again, bending at the waist and trying to pull Jackson’s hips away from the cage. Jackson turns his back and Marcos takes a rear waistlock, but he can only get off a few knees to the thigh before Jackson escapes again. Jackson comes forward, stalking a suddenly tired-looking Marcos, and gets an easy takedown. As Marcos stands, Jackson snares him in a D’Arce choke, dragging him back to the mat as he does so. Marcos remains calm and defends against the choke, but the final horn sounds seconds later, possibly without “Soncora” having landed a single strike this round. Barring some extreme judging malfeasance, one of the UFC’s two dozen or so undefeated fighters is about to go down.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Jackson (30-27 Jackson)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Jackson (30-27 Jackson)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Jackson (30-27 Jackson)
The Official Result
Montel Jackson def. Daniel Marcos via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Angelo goes against the public and picks Daniel Marcos as an underdog. He trusts Marcos's cardio and takedown defense, and believes he can win a close decision similar to his last fight. He suggests a +3.5 spread bet if the odds remain wide.
Big Brady picks Montel Jackson, citing his significant height and reach advantage, power, and wrestling upside. He notes that Jackson's losses came against wrestlers who took him down, but Marcos is not a wrestler; Jackson may get takedowns instead. Brady questions Marcos's ceiling, pointing out close decisions against Adrien Yanez and Davey Grant, where Grant outlanded Marcos. He expects Jackson to win a decision, mixing in wrestling and landing big shots.
Connor picks Marcos, believing his defensive awareness and ability to slip past length will neutralize Jackson's reach. He notes that Jackson's striking is aimless and he has struggled against pressure fighters like Brent Johns and Ricky Simone. Connor thinks Marcos can get inside and land meaningful shots, and that Jackson's lack of process will be exposed. However, he admits Marcos tends to walk a fine line and doesn't control fights completely.
Jackson will shut down Marcos's calf kicking and grappling game. He will land his big power and muscle Marcos, getting a KO finish within 10 minutes.
The MMA Guru picks Montel Jackson to win by TKO in the first or second round. He praises Jackson's power, reach, and wrestling defense, noting that he has never been held down. He believes Daniel Marcos lacks the grappling threat and power to trouble Jackson, and that Jackson will find a finish. He thinks Jackson should be a -250 favorite, so -198 is good value.
Zane picks Jackson, citing his size, reach, and fight-changing power as key advantages. He notes that Marcos has never faced a fighter with Jackson's physical attributes and may struggle to get inside. Zane acknowledges that Marcos is skilled and defensively aware, but worries that Jackson's power will be the difference if Marcos can't neutralize the reach. He admits it's a close fight and not confident.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montel Jackson | 1 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Da'Mon Blackshear | 0 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montel Jackson | 1 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Da'Mon Blackshear | 0 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montel Jackson | 4 of 6 | 66% | 4 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
| Da'Mon Blackshear | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montel Jackson | 4 of 6 | 66% | 4 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
| Da'Mon Blackshear | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Jackson (-162), Blackshear (+136)
Round 1
The prelims continue as bantamweights meet in the Octagon, with Jackson (13-2, 7-2 UFC) putting together a quietly successful run in the UFC as he enters into his 10th fight. The same cannot be said for Blackshear (14-6-1, 2-2-1 UFC), who hopes to break out of his .500 record with a victory. The two will be joined in the cage by referee Nick Berens, who checks them in as they bump fists. Blackshear lands a leg kick earl y, and Jackson responds with a right hand that loops around the guard. They hand-fight, and Jackson sticks out a front kick.
As Blackshear steps in to attack, Jackson releases a lightning-quick one-two that knocks Blackshear clean off his feet. As Blackshear’s head ricochets off the mat, it is clear he is out cold, and Jackson knows that his work here is done but understands the rules and drops down a few unnecessary punches until Berens leaps in.
While the audience explodes in favor of the ultra-fast knockout, Jackson signals to bring it down a few notches and drops a knee out of concern for his wrecked opponent. Blackshear comes to, although he needs to lean on his coach to remain upright, and Jackson is relieved and goes to embrace his fallen foe. The confident Jackson, who finds himself on a mighty win streak after a vicious knockout, simply tells upcoming adversaries during his post-fight interview that they need to “sign the contract.”
The Official Result
Montel Jackson def. Da’Mon Blackshear R1 0:18 via KO (Punch)
Angelo picks Montel Jackson, citing his superior wrestling background (Olympic Training Facility), power, and speed. He notes that while Da'Mon Blackshear is a good underdog with early wrestling initiation, Montel's offensive wrestling and power should be the difference. Angelo plans to wait for prop bets before placing a wager.
Cody picks Jackson, citing his striking advantage and improved grappling. He notes Blackshear's cardio issues and short notice, and believes Jackson will win by decision or late TKO. He expects Jackson to stuff takedowns and outwork Blackshear.
Daniel Vreeland leans with Da'Mon Blackshear as a plus 130 underdog. He notes that Montel Jackson is talented but inconsistent, often having long periods of inactivity. He thinks Blackshear's pressure and cardio could be factors, though he acknowledges Jackson's high ceiling. He calls it a tough fight to call but prefers the dog.
Montel Jackson has shown improvements in surviving early rounds and taking over in the second and third. Blackshear tends to slow down later in fights. Jackson will keep the fight upright and use his power to finish Blackshear in the second or third round.
Paul picks Jackson but is less confident, citing Blackshear's wrestling threat. He notes Jackson's inactivity but believes his striking and cardio advantage will prevail. He expects a competitive fight and may wait for weigh-ins.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montel Jackson | 0 | 7 of 21 | 33% | 7 of 22 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
| Rani Yahya | 1 | 9 of 21 | 42% | 10 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:17 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montel Jackson | 0 | 7 of 21 | 33% | 7 of 22 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
| Rani Yahya | 1 | 9 of 21 | 42% | 10 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:17 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montel Jackson | 7 of 21 | 33% | 1 of 10 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 9 | 7 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Rani Yahya | 9 of 21 | 42% | 7 of 18 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montel Jackson | 7 of 21 | 33% | 1 of 10 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 9 | 7 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Rani Yahya | 9 of 21 | 42% | 7 of 18 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Jackson (-560), Yahya (+430)
Round 1
The quintessential “striker vs. grappler” contest rears its head between these two bantamweights, one that also has a storyline of a young, hungry up-and-comer against an aging, storied vet. Owner of 21 submissions without a single knockout to his credit, Yahya (28-10-1, 1 NC; 13-4-1, 1 NC UFC) will attempt to run his win streak to three in this matchup. He will face “Quik” Jackson (12-2, 6-2 UFC), who will be much larger, longer and younger. The third man in the Octagon for this match will be referee Keith Peterson, who clocks the fighters in ahead of their sporting and nonsense-free glove touch. Yahya strikes first with a pair of punches and a low kick, and he spins around before Jackson can reach him. The Brazilian lands with another low kick, and he stays out of range for the lanky Jackson to get to him. Yahya tosses forth one more leg kick for good measure, and he scoots forward to stomp at it from another angle. The strategy is clear for Yahya, who is continuously targeting the lead wheel. Jackson throws a few punches that bounce off the guard and knock his man into the wall, not from damage but rather the force of the strikes. Jackson catches him with a one-two, and Yahya dives forward into a single. Jackson hops back against the fence and elbows Yahya in the side of the dome before getting lifted off the ground. Yahya ends up falling to his back to make sure the fighters hit the ground, and he closes his guard momentarily before fishing for a sweep. Yahya isolates Jackson’s right arm beneath his own armpit and throws a leg up for a potential armlock, and Jackson sits up to get most of the leverage out of the position. Yahya gets popped in the chops to break up the submission, and he pulls on the glove to keep Jackson down but is warned for it. Jackson jumps back up to his feet and rips the body with a kick. Yahya misses with a stomp kick but does reach a right hand over the top, and Jackson does not even register its landing. Jackson hand-fights and throws a high kick that wraps over the guard.
Yahya darts in lunging with his arms outstretched, and “Quik” perfectly counters with a clean left hand over the top that smashes into the veteran’s chin. Yahya falls to his back, in immediate danger, and Jackson senses this and deftly moves over to finish the job with some long, straight punches as he lords over the doomed grappler. As Jackson pounds on his fallen foe, Yahya’s lights go out briefly, and Peterson waves the fight off.
This is a big win for Jackson, who becomes the first fighter to stop Yahya since the Brazilian faced Joseph Benavidez at WEC 45 in 2009 – over seven years before Jackson turned pro.
The Official Result
Montel Jackson def. Rani Yahya R1 3:42 via KO (Punches)
Angelo picks Montel Jackson easily, stating he should defend every takedown from Yahya and light him up on the feet. He notes Yahya's low takedown accuracy (24%) and that he relies on opponents shooting takedowns to get to the ground. He recommends parlaying Jackson.
Big Brady picks Montel Jackson to win by first-round knockout. He notes that Jackson is the biggest favorite on the card and has a huge reach and size advantage over the 38-year-old Yahya. Jackson has a ton of knockdowns and Yahya has been dropped in recent fights. Brady believes Jackson will stuff takedowns, keep the fight on the feet, and knock Yahya down repeatedly until the fight is stopped. He sees this as a terrible matchup for Yahya.
Cody picks Montel Jackson, citing his massive reach and strength advantages. He notes Yahya is old (38), has poor wrestling and striking, and relies on flopping to his back to avoid damage. Cody believes Jackson can keep the fight standing and use his reach to pick Yahya apart, possibly getting a knockout. He mentions a prop on PrizePicks for under 1.5 takedowns for Jackson, as he expects Jackson to avoid grappling.
Connor picks Montel Jackson, believing he is improving despite himself and that his natural athleticism and size will be too much for Yahya. He notes that Jackson's ability to easily shut down takedowns, as seen against Ricky Simon, will be key. However, he acknowledges that Jackson tends to make fights more competitive than needed and that Yahya is a dedicated grappler who can take a mile if given an inch.
Montel Jackson has significant speed and power advantages, and his kicks can keep Yahya at distance. Yahya is a jiu-jitsu specialist who struggles to get takedowns and has poor cardio. Jackson should be able to pick him apart and eventually land a knockout. However, Jackson has lacked killer instinct and has been taken down by grapplers before. If Yahya gets a hold of him, he could grind out a win. Jackson by knockout in the second round is the pick, but with low confidence.
Paul also picks Jackson, agreeing with Cody's assessment. He adds that Yahya's Jiu-Jitsu is good but his wrestling is bad, and Jackson has good takedown defense. Paul notes that judges now favor damage, so even if Yahya gets takedowns, Jackson's striking should win rounds. He expects Jackson to win, possibly by knockout.
The MMA Guru calls this the lock of the card, stating there is no chance Rani Yahya wins. He highlights Montel Jackson's wicked striking and improving skills, and his ability to stuff takedowns with good wrist control. He notes Yahya's age, injuries, and inability to get the fight to the ground. He predicts a KO in the first or second round.
Zane also picks Montel Jackson, agreeing that he is probably too innately good and big for Yahya. He notes that Yahya is self-destructive and puts a ton of energy into grappling, and that Jackson's physicality should allow him to rebuff Yahya's wrestling. Zane mentions that Jackson's ability to just grab a wrist and control an opponent's arm is a huge advantage.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montel Jackson | 0 | 26 of 126 | 20% | 44 of 156 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Julio Arce | 1 | 48 of 106 | 45% | 64 of 127 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 5:55 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montel Jackson | 0 | 4 of 22 | 18% | 9 of 27 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Julio Arce | 0 | 5 of 17 | 29% | 15 of 29 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:09 | |
| 2 | Montel Jackson | 0 | 15 of 58 | 25% | 25 of 72 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Julio Arce | 0 | 19 of 46 | 41% | 24 of 54 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:12 | |
| 3 | Montel Jackson | 0 | 7 of 46 | 15% | 10 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Julio Arce | 1 | 24 of 43 | 55% | 25 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:34 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montel Jackson | 26 of 126 | 20% | 13 of 102 | 8 of 17 | 5 of 7 | 25 of 124 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Julio Arce | 48 of 106 | 45% | 39 of 95 | 5 of 7 | 4 of 4 | 33 of 82 | 4 of 5 | 11 of 19 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montel Jackson | 4 of 22 | 18% | 2 of 16 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 3 | 4 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Julio Arce | 5 of 17 | 29% | 3 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Montel Jackson | 15 of 58 | 25% | 7 of 47 | 5 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 15 of 58 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Julio Arce | 19 of 46 | 41% | 13 of 39 | 3 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 18 of 44 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Montel Jackson | 7 of 46 | 15% | 4 of 39 | 2 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 44 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Julio Arce | 24 of 43 | 55% | 23 of 41 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 22 | 2 of 2 | 11 of 19 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Jackson (-200), Arce (+170)
Round 1
Arce was victorious in his first appearance of 2022, while Jackson, who has won five of six UFC outings, will return to the Octagon for the first time in 14 months. Marc Goddard will be the third man in the cage. They touch gloves and we’re underway. Jackson changes levels within the first 30 seconds and shoves Arce into the fence. Jackson lands some knees to the body, but one lands on the cup, which prompts a warning from Goddard but no reset. Jackson thinks about a single-leg but Arce defends, and Jackson lands a short punch to the head instead. The crowd is already getting restless as Jackson continues to grind away against the fence. Goddard urges the combatants to stay busy. Arce can’t get his back off the fence and we’re halfway through the round when Goddard orders a restart in the center of the cage. Arce has a kick to the body partially blocked. He’s cautious, perhaps due to the threat of the Jackson takedown. Arce fires a straight to the body followed by a leg kick. Arce pressures and both men exchange jabs. Arce picks up the pace and fires off an overhand left. Jackson moves in with a right hook. Arce pressures as time winds down, and Jackson defends a takedown in the final 10 seconds. Arce muscles his opponent to the mat just before the horn, however.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Arce
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Arce
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Arce
Round 2
Arce again takes the center of the cage, and he lands a left hand as he backs Jackson up. An inside leg kick connects for Arce. An outside leg kick lands for Jackson. Arce continues to lead the dance and he moves in behind a right hook, but Jackson lands a counter in response. A right hook connects for Jackson. Another counter right lands for Jackson, who is having more success but isn’t landing in great volume. Jackson connects with a solid right. Arce throws a right hook and Jackson angles out. Jackson is sticking his right hand with some consistency now as Arce pressures. Jackson shoots for a takedown against the fence. He steps around and gets the back of his opponent. Jackson continues to grind away until the horn, mixing in a knee with some dirty boxing.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Jackson
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Jackson
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Jackson
Round 3
Arce comes out throwing combinations, but it’s Jackson who lands a right hand during an initial exchange. Moments later, Jackson puts Arce on his back with a stiff jab. Jackson assumes top position and works to land punches from inside Arce’s guard. Arce seems to have recovered, and he’s very active with his guard. Jackson is struggling to control the hips, and Arce nearly frames a triangle. Jackson works to stack Arce, but he is unable to pass at the 2:30 mark of the round. Arce sits up and then stands. Arce has some swelling under his left eye. Arce is not finding the range on his punches. Jackson finds an opening a tags Arce with a right hand. Arce pressures forward and whiffs on some looping punches. Arce moves in with punches and Jackson ties him up, shoving his foe into the fence. Jackson lands a short right on the break. Jackson with a straight left in the waning seconds, and he dodges a final Arce offering before the horn.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Jackson (29-28 Jackson)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Jackson (29-28 Jackson)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Jackson (29-28 Jackson)
The Official Result
Montel Jackson def. Julia Arce via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28) R3 5:00
Angelo believes Julio Arce is the better technical striker but has a suspect chin. He trusts Montel Jackson's wrestling and power, noting that Jackson's only losses are to wrestlers who out-grappled him. He thinks Jackson will win by using his takedowns and power, rather than trying to out-strike Arce. He mentions that the takedown prop lines will be interesting and that he will likely bet on Jackson's takedowns.
Big Brady picks Montel Jackson to win by decision. He highlights Jackson's size, reach, power (10 knockdowns in UFC), and wrestling (over 4 takedowns per 15 minutes at 78% accuracy). He notes Arce has good takedown defense (94%) but hasn't faced many wrestlers. He believes Jackson will mix takedowns and land the bigger shots, winning a decision. He also mentions Jackson's youth and power advantage.
Cody picks Arce, citing his excellent footwork, volume, and 94% takedown defense. He notes that Jackson has not fought top competition and that Arce's movement and striking should give Jackson trouble. Cody thinks if Jackson can't take Arce down, Arce will outpoint him. He is not highly confident but sees value at plus money.
Connor picks Arce, noting that Jackson has not improved in four years and lacks depth in his grappling and striking. He points out that Arce is a complete fighter with sharp footwork and counters, and that Jackson's wrestling is not good enough to hold Arce down. Connor also mentions that Arce has been getting better and has faced higher-level competition.
Daniel Levi picks Montel Jackson, citing his immense talent, power, wrestling, and physical attributes. He notes that Jackson has knockout power and a reach advantage, but his work ethic is questionable. Levi believes if Jackson shows up focused, he can dominate. He respects Arce's point-fighting style but thinks Jackson's power and wrestling will be the difference.
The host believes Arce is the better technical striker with superior footwork and kicks, and his 94% takedown defense should keep the fight standing. He questions Jackson's competition level, noting his wins are over lower-tier opponents and he struggles against better grapplers. Arce's output and volume should frustrate Jackson, leading to a decision win. The host acknowledges Arce's durability concerns but sees value at +175.
Paul also leans towards Arce, agreeing with Cody's analysis. He notes that Jackson is enormous for the weight class and that Arce will have to eat shots to get inside, but if Arce keeps the fight standing, it should be close to a pick'em. Paul is not confident but goes with Arce.
The MMA Guru picks Montel Jackson, citing his underrated prospect status, massive hands, and physical advantages like a 5.5-inch reach advantage. He believes Jackson can outwork Arce on the feet and predicts a close split decision 29-28. He notes Jackson's grappling defense against good grapplers like Brett Johns and Ricky Simon.
Zane picks Arce, emphasizing that Jackson's striking is one-dimensional and he lacks confidence in it. He notes that Arce's consistent style and ability to handle pressure fighters like Daniel Santos make him a good bet. Zane also points out that Jackson's wins have come against lower-level competition, while Arce has fought tougher opponents.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montel Jackson | 4 | 25 of 43 | 58% | 91 of 117 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 1 | 0 | 10:03 |
| JP Buys | 0 | 8 of 24 | 33% | 39 of 60 | 1 of 7 | 14% | 3 | 0 | 1:20 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montel Jackson | 0 | 8 of 12 | 66% | 27 of 34 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 2:36 |
| JP Buys | 0 | 3 of 8 | 37% | 9 of 15 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 2 | 0 | 1:20 | |
| 2 | Montel Jackson | 2 | 7 of 12 | 58% | 21 of 30 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 4:07 |
| JP Buys | 0 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 14 of 20 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Montel Jackson | 2 | 10 of 19 | 52% | 43 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 3:20 |
| JP Buys | 0 | 3 of 10 | 30% | 16 of 25 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montel Jackson | 25 of 43 | 58% | 18 of 36 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 17 | 6 of 8 | 8 of 18 |
| JP Buys | 8 of 24 | 33% | 3 of 10 | 4 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 22 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montel Jackson | 8 of 12 | 66% | 4 of 8 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 5 |
| JP Buys | 3 of 8 | 37% | 1 of 4 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Montel Jackson | 7 of 12 | 58% | 5 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 6 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 3 |
| JP Buys | 2 of 6 | 33% | 1 of 2 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Montel Jackson | 10 of 19 | 52% | 9 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 10 |
| JP Buys | 3 of 10 | 30% | 1 of 4 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Montel Jackson as he is well-rounded with power, striking, and wrestling. He notes JP Buys has a path via wrestling but Montel is too good everywhere. He does not like the moneyline at -700 but has a bet on over 1.5 rounds because he thinks Buys will survive early and make it past the first round and a half.
Big Brady is very confident in Montel Jackson, citing huge size and reach advantages. He notes JP Buys is moving up a weight class on short notice and has a history of gassing out. He predicts Jackson will finish Buys in the second round, either by knockout or submission, as Buys has never been to a decision.
Cody is very confident in Jackson, citing his size, power, and improved takedown defense. He notes that JP Buys is undersized, on short notice, and failed to wrestle in his UFC debut. Cody believes Jackson will keep the fight standing and land a knockout.
Daniel Levi picks Montel Jackson to finish JP Buys. He believes Jackson has top-five potential and skills, despite past criticism of his mentality. He notes Buys is composed but lacks the goods, and Jackson's path to victory is finishing him. He advises against betting the moneyline at -650 and suggests looking at props like inside distance.
Preet picks Montel Jackson to win, expecting a finish. He notes Jackson has better striking and power, while Buys is fragile and tends to quit when pressured. He likes the fight doesn't go to decision at -200 and Jackson by KO at +105.
Paul has Jackson in his parlay, noting his physical advantages and Buys' lack of wrestling. He believes Jackson's power and full camp will be decisive. Paul mentions he bet the over 1.5 rounds as well.
The MMA Guru picks Montel Jackson to win by first-round KO, calling it the 'stupidest decision' for JP Buys to take this fight. He emphasizes Jackson's size, power, and grappling advantage, noting he shut down Brett Johns' grappling. He predicts Jackson will land a big shot and finish Buys early.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montel Jackson | 2 | 15 of 26 | 57% | 15 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:16 |
| Jesse Strader | 0 | 14 of 25 | 56% | 14 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montel Jackson | 2 | 15 of 26 | 57% | 15 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:16 |
| Jesse Strader | 0 | 14 of 25 | 56% | 14 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montel Jackson | 15 of 26 | 57% | 11 of 22 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 12 | 3 of 4 | 7 of 10 |
| Jesse Strader | 14 of 25 | 56% | 3 of 7 | 3 of 7 | 8 of 11 | 12 of 22 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montel Jackson | 15 of 26 | 57% | 11 of 22 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 12 | 3 of 4 | 7 of 10 |
| Jesse Strader | 14 of 25 | 56% | 3 of 7 | 3 of 7 | 8 of 11 | 12 of 22 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 2 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
The next fight of the night comes at a 138-pound catchweight when a fighter missed weight. “Quik” Jackson (9-2, 3-2 UFC) will look to quick work of Strader (5-1, 0-0 UFC) and make the newcomer pay for missing the mark by 1.5 pounds. Referee Keith Peterson has slain all the nonsense in the building, and the two touch gloves before throwing down. Strader backs off and chips at his opponent with several leg kicks, as Jackson is content to march him down without throwing anything. Strader keeps landing a kick or two low, until Jackson winds up with a booming head kick. It barely gets blocked, and he chains the kick into a leg kick that surprises Strader. The newcomer targets the body and legs indiscriminately, as Jackson aims single kicks in response. “Sui Generis” lets fly kick after hacking kick, and Jackson is tired of it and winds up a huge right hand. Strader ducks it, and Jackson follows it with a knee to the chest and a huge right hand that puts Strader down hard. “Quik” chases after him with punches, but the newcomer jumps back to his feet and swings back to get Jackson to back off.
Jackson bites down on his gumshield, wings a pair of nasty punches and levels Strader once more. “Sui Generis” slumps down into the corner between the fencing and the canvas, and Jackson lords over him dropping bombs. “Quik” continues to pour it on with fast but devastating punches until Peterson has seen enough.
That was quick.
The Official Result
Montel Jackson def. Jesse Strader R1 1:58 via TKO (Punches)
Big Brady is very confident in Montel Jackson, calling him the biggest favorite on the card for good reason. He notes Jackson is a much better fighter with a significant skill advantage, while Strader is green and has fought low-level competition. Brady expects Jackson to win by first-round knockout, as Strader has been hurt by lesser opponents and Jackson can pick him apart or take him down.
Daniel Levi picks Montel Jackson confidently, stating Strader is over his head. He worries about Jackson's focus and past stalling but expects a dominant finish, likely by knockout or submission. He emphasizes that Jackson's talent should shine against this level of competition.
Montel Jackson has all the tools: great wrestling, sneaky submission game, improving striking and cardio. He uses his range well and has crazy grip strength. Jesse Strader throws bombs and has power, but his only path is a KO. Jackson should get the takedown and eventually lock up a submission. The line is too wide at -650, but Jackson wins handily.
The MMA Guru calls Montel Jackson the lock of the card. He praises Jackson's underrated prospect status, giant hands, and patience. He expects Jackson to weather Strader's early aggression and finish him by second-round TKO. He notes Strader is a good fighter with quick finishes but doesn't see him finishing Jackson.
Rani Yahya - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Henry | 0 | 54 of 109 | 49% | 56 of 111 | 0 of 10 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:48 |
| Rani Yahya | 2 | 109 of 205 | 53% | 150 of 260 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 3:09 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Victor Henry | 0 | 21 of 39 | 53% | 23 of 41 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:48 |
| Rani Yahya | 0 | 19 of 30 | 63% | 26 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:00 | |
| 2 | Victor Henry | 0 | 24 of 51 | 47% | 24 of 51 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Rani Yahya | 1 | 56 of 115 | 48% | 70 of 136 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:38 | |
| 3 | Victor Henry | 0 | 9 of 19 | 47% | 9 of 19 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Rani Yahya | 1 | 34 of 60 | 56% | 54 of 83 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:31 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Henry | 54 of 109 | 49% | 28 of 76 | 6 of 9 | 20 of 24 | 51 of 105 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Rani Yahya | 109 of 205 | 53% | 84 of 176 | 21 of 24 | 4 of 5 | 89 of 173 | 2 of 5 | 18 of 27 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Victor Henry | 21 of 39 | 53% | 7 of 19 | 3 of 5 | 11 of 15 | 18 of 36 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Rani Yahya | 19 of 30 | 63% | 13 of 24 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 17 of 26 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Victor Henry | 24 of 51 | 47% | 15 of 41 | 2 of 3 | 7 of 7 | 24 of 51 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Rani Yahya | 56 of 115 | 48% | 43 of 98 | 11 of 14 | 2 of 3 | 48 of 103 | 0 of 1 | 8 of 11 | |
| 3 | Victor Henry | 9 of 19 | 47% | 6 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 18 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Rani Yahya | 34 of 60 | 56% | 28 of 54 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 24 of 44 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 16 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Yahya comes out throwing leg kicks. Henry looks to counter with punches and catches Yahya with a left hook. Yahya goes for a takedown and gets a waistlock. Henry gets thrown on the floor, but Henry gets back up. They separate. Henry lands a straight right to the body. Yahya goes for another takedown, but Henry gets up again immediately afterward. Henry can't get his offense off, as he has to keep defending against Yahya. The round ends with Yahya wildly throwing punches.
Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Yahya
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Yahya
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Yahya
Round 2
Yahya lands a nice overhand right. Yahya wildly dives for a leg but can't get it. Leg kick lands for Yahya. Henry pumping out his jab but isn't putting much power behind it. Yahya goes for a takedown, but it is stuffed. Henry eats a left hook. A right hook lands for Yahya. Henry sneaks in an elbow that hurts Yahya, and a left hand comes shortly afterward. Nice straight right by Henry. Yahya is getting backed up against the fence. Henry finding much more success this round. Henry uses his kicks to determine the distance. Henry lands a thudding right hand. Yahya's head is snapping back due to jabs. Henry throws Yahya off him and lets him back up. Henry is overwhelming Yahya with punches, who falls to the ground. Henry unloads with punches and landing hammerfists. Yahya survives the round.
Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Henry
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-8 Henry
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Henry
Round 3
Henry comes out working his jab. Yahya is eating a lot of shots and dives for a takedown. Yahya looks for a leg. Henry is willing to go down to the ground and lands a nice punch. Henry allows his opponent back up. Yahya looks exhausted. Henry lands a push kick and follows up with a right hook that puts Yahya down. Yahya turtles up. Henry lands punches, but Yahya is able to get half-guard. Henry gets back up and starts punishing the body with punches.
A head kick lands for Henry. Yahya turtles up on the feet and the fight is waved off.
Yahya had nothing left after the beating he took in Round 2.
The Official Result
Victor Henry def. Rani Yahya via TKO (Head Kick and Punches); R3, 2:36.
Angelo is confident Victor Henry wins but refuses to touch the -500 line, calling it 'kick rocks.' He notes Rani Yahya looked old and slow in his last fight, getting knocked out, and that good things don't happen after that in MMA. He points out Henry has lost to a 40-year-old before (Raphael Assunção), making him unreliable at such short odds. He picks Henry but says if he were -150 he'd love it.
Cody picks Henry, calling him the best favorite on the card. He notes Yahya's one-dimensional BJJ and poor striking, and believes Henry's wrestling and grappling will neutralize Yahya. He expects a dominant decision or late finish.
Daniel notes Henry has never been finished in 29 fights and has a catch wrestling background. He thinks Henry's output and striking will overwhelm Yahya, who is 42 and relies on jiu-jitsu. He expects Henry to look like a -400 favorite and win comfortably.
Henry has good defensive grappling and should be able to keep the fight upright, using his movement and output to chip away at Yahya. Yahya is dangerous on the ground but Henry's takedown defense is high level. I expect Henry to win on the scorecards. The over 2.5 rounds is also a good prop.
Paul agrees, citing Yahya's age (40), inactivity, and lack of wrestling. He thinks Henry can mimic Ricky Simon's game plan of stuffing takedowns and landing strikes. He considers Henry a solid favorite despite the poor line.
The MMA Guru picks Victor Henry as one of the locks of the card. He criticizes Rani Yahya as very old at 39 and notes his recent losses to Montel Jackson and weak competition. He praises Henry's consistency, difficulty to finish, and ability to survive on the ground. He predicts a unanimous decision or late TKO, and says he would be very shocked if Henry loses.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montel Jackson | 0 | 7 of 21 | 33% | 7 of 22 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
| Rani Yahya | 1 | 9 of 21 | 42% | 10 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:17 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montel Jackson | 0 | 7 of 21 | 33% | 7 of 22 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
| Rani Yahya | 1 | 9 of 21 | 42% | 10 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:17 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montel Jackson | 7 of 21 | 33% | 1 of 10 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 9 | 7 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Rani Yahya | 9 of 21 | 42% | 7 of 18 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montel Jackson | 7 of 21 | 33% | 1 of 10 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 9 | 7 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Rani Yahya | 9 of 21 | 42% | 7 of 18 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Jackson (-560), Yahya (+430)
Round 1
The quintessential “striker vs. grappler” contest rears its head between these two bantamweights, one that also has a storyline of a young, hungry up-and-comer against an aging, storied vet. Owner of 21 submissions without a single knockout to his credit, Yahya (28-10-1, 1 NC; 13-4-1, 1 NC UFC) will attempt to run his win streak to three in this matchup. He will face “Quik” Jackson (12-2, 6-2 UFC), who will be much larger, longer and younger. The third man in the Octagon for this match will be referee Keith Peterson, who clocks the fighters in ahead of their sporting and nonsense-free glove touch. Yahya strikes first with a pair of punches and a low kick, and he spins around before Jackson can reach him. The Brazilian lands with another low kick, and he stays out of range for the lanky Jackson to get to him. Yahya tosses forth one more leg kick for good measure, and he scoots forward to stomp at it from another angle. The strategy is clear for Yahya, who is continuously targeting the lead wheel. Jackson throws a few punches that bounce off the guard and knock his man into the wall, not from damage but rather the force of the strikes. Jackson catches him with a one-two, and Yahya dives forward into a single. Jackson hops back against the fence and elbows Yahya in the side of the dome before getting lifted off the ground. Yahya ends up falling to his back to make sure the fighters hit the ground, and he closes his guard momentarily before fishing for a sweep. Yahya isolates Jackson’s right arm beneath his own armpit and throws a leg up for a potential armlock, and Jackson sits up to get most of the leverage out of the position. Yahya gets popped in the chops to break up the submission, and he pulls on the glove to keep Jackson down but is warned for it. Jackson jumps back up to his feet and rips the body with a kick. Yahya misses with a stomp kick but does reach a right hand over the top, and Jackson does not even register its landing. Jackson hand-fights and throws a high kick that wraps over the guard.
Yahya darts in lunging with his arms outstretched, and “Quik” perfectly counters with a clean left hand over the top that smashes into the veteran’s chin. Yahya falls to his back, in immediate danger, and Jackson senses this and deftly moves over to finish the job with some long, straight punches as he lords over the doomed grappler. As Jackson pounds on his fallen foe, Yahya’s lights go out briefly, and Peterson waves the fight off.
This is a big win for Jackson, who becomes the first fighter to stop Yahya since the Brazilian faced Joseph Benavidez at WEC 45 in 2009 – over seven years before Jackson turned pro.
The Official Result
Montel Jackson def. Rani Yahya R1 3:42 via KO (Punches)
Angelo picks Montel Jackson easily, stating he should defend every takedown from Yahya and light him up on the feet. He notes Yahya's low takedown accuracy (24%) and that he relies on opponents shooting takedowns to get to the ground. He recommends parlaying Jackson.
Big Brady picks Montel Jackson to win by first-round knockout. He notes that Jackson is the biggest favorite on the card and has a huge reach and size advantage over the 38-year-old Yahya. Jackson has a ton of knockdowns and Yahya has been dropped in recent fights. Brady believes Jackson will stuff takedowns, keep the fight on the feet, and knock Yahya down repeatedly until the fight is stopped. He sees this as a terrible matchup for Yahya.
Cody picks Montel Jackson, citing his massive reach and strength advantages. He notes Yahya is old (38), has poor wrestling and striking, and relies on flopping to his back to avoid damage. Cody believes Jackson can keep the fight standing and use his reach to pick Yahya apart, possibly getting a knockout. He mentions a prop on PrizePicks for under 1.5 takedowns for Jackson, as he expects Jackson to avoid grappling.
Connor picks Montel Jackson, believing he is improving despite himself and that his natural athleticism and size will be too much for Yahya. He notes that Jackson's ability to easily shut down takedowns, as seen against Ricky Simon, will be key. However, he acknowledges that Jackson tends to make fights more competitive than needed and that Yahya is a dedicated grappler who can take a mile if given an inch.
Montel Jackson has significant speed and power advantages, and his kicks can keep Yahya at distance. Yahya is a jiu-jitsu specialist who struggles to get takedowns and has poor cardio. Jackson should be able to pick him apart and eventually land a knockout. However, Jackson has lacked killer instinct and has been taken down by grapplers before. If Yahya gets a hold of him, he could grind out a win. Jackson by knockout in the second round is the pick, but with low confidence.
Paul also picks Jackson, agreeing with Cody's assessment. He adds that Yahya's Jiu-Jitsu is good but his wrestling is bad, and Jackson has good takedown defense. Paul notes that judges now favor damage, so even if Yahya gets takedowns, Jackson's striking should win rounds. He expects Jackson to win, possibly by knockout.
The MMA Guru calls this the lock of the card, stating there is no chance Rani Yahya wins. He highlights Montel Jackson's wicked striking and improving skills, and his ability to stuff takedowns with good wrist control. He notes Yahya's age, injuries, and inability to get the fight to the ground. He predicts a KO in the first or second round.
Zane also picks Montel Jackson, agreeing that he is probably too innately good and big for Yahya. He notes that Yahya is self-destructive and puts a ton of energy into grappling, and that Jackson's physicality should allow him to rebuff Yahya's wrestling. Zane mentions that Jackson's ability to just grab a wrist and control an opponent's arm is a huge advantage.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rani Yahya | 0 | 27 of 48 | 56% | 152 of 218 | 3 of 8 | 37% | 1 | 1 | 10:36 |
| Kyung Ho Kang | 1 | 43 of 82 | 52% | 103 of 154 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:05 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rani Yahya | 0 | 21 of 35 | 60% | 23 of 37 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 1:24 |
| Kyung Ho Kang | 1 | 33 of 61 | 54% | 45 of 74 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:57 | |
| 2 | Rani Yahya | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 59 of 85 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 4:48 |
| Kyung Ho Kang | 0 | 4 of 4 | 100% | 10 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Rani Yahya | 0 | 5 of 11 | 45% | 70 of 96 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 1 | 4:24 |
| Kyung Ho Kang | 0 | 6 of 17 | 35% | 48 of 68 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rani Yahya | 27 of 48 | 56% | 7 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 19 of 22 | 26 of 47 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Kyung Ho Kang | 43 of 82 | 52% | 36 of 73 | 1 of 3 | 6 of 6 | 40 of 78 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rani Yahya | 21 of 35 | 60% | 4 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 16 of 19 | 21 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Kyung Ho Kang | 33 of 61 | 54% | 28 of 55 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 4 | 30 of 57 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 | |
| 2 | Rani Yahya | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Kyung Ho Kang | 4 of 4 | 100% | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Rani Yahya | 5 of 11 | 45% | 3 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Kyung Ho Kang | 6 of 17 | 35% | 6 of 16 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Rani Yahya but calls it razor thin. He notes Yahya's relentless takedown attempts and superior grappling should be the difference, but Kang is the better striker and could keep it standing. He is concerned about Yahya's age (36) but says it's not as old as he thought. He expects Yahya to smother Kang with wrestling.
Big Brady picks Kyung Ho Kang to win by decision. He notes that Kang is the more well-rounded fighter, younger, and has better cardio. He believes Kang's 71% takedown defense and good grappling will keep him safe from Rani Yahya's submissions. He sees Kang having multiple paths to victory, including out-striking Yahya or using his own takedowns. He predicts a clear decision win.
Cody picks Kang but with low confidence. He notes that Kang often goes to split decisions and judges don't always favor his style. However, he believes Kang has the physical strength, judo, and grappling to implement a game plan similar to Ricky Simone's: box, defend the guard pull, pass, land a few strikes, and back out. He thinks Yahya is limited, with poor cardio and a one-dimensional guard-pulling game. Cody is not sold on Yahya's striking or wrestling improvements.
Daniel Levi picks Kyung Ho Kang, citing his well-rounded skills and better cardio. He notes that Kang has never been submitted in the UFC and can scramble well. He points out that Rani Yahya tends to gas out after seven minutes, shooting from a mile out, and that Kang can take advantage of that. Levi believes Kang has more weapons and less damage in his career, making him the pick.
Lock leans Kang but is not confident. He notes Kang has a height, reach, and youth advantage, and that Yahya gasses out. However, Kang has been off for two years and Yahya is dangerous on the ground. Lock thinks Kang by decision is the most likely outcome, but also likes a round three sprinkle because Yahya fades.
Paul agrees with Cody, noting that Yahya has looked a bit sharper recently but is still a guard puller with terrible cardio. He thinks Kang's path to victory is sprawling and brawling, and that Yahya will likely flop to his back in round three. Paul is not confident because Yahya is crafty and has burned tickets before, but he leans Kang due to Yahya's limitations.
The MMA Guru picks Rani Yahya over Kyung Ho Kang. He notes that Kang gets lazy on top in later rounds and has poor cardio, while Yahya is active and experienced. He expects Yahya to lose the first round but win the scrambles in the second and third, reversing position and landing strikes. He predicts a 29-28 unanimous decision for Yahya.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rani Yahya | 0 | 8 of 13 | 61% | 42 of 65 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 7:00 |
| Ray Rodriguez | 0 | 3 of 18 | 16% | 15 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rani Yahya | 0 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 31 of 45 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 4:41 |
| Ray Rodriguez | 0 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 8 of 14 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Rani Yahya | 0 | 6 of 10 | 60% | 11 of 20 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 2:19 |
| Ray Rodriguez | 0 | 2 of 14 | 14% | 7 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rani Yahya | 8 of 13 | 61% | 0 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 7 of 8 | 8 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Ray Rodriguez | 3 of 18 | 16% | 2 of 16 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rani Yahya | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Ray Rodriguez | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Rani Yahya | 6 of 10 | 60% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 6 of 7 | 6 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Ray Rodriguez | 2 of 14 | 14% | 1 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Rani Yahya, emphasizing his superior wrestling and grappling. He notes that Rodriguez gets taken down in every fight and has been submitted multiple times, including by Chris Gutierrez. He expects Yahya to get the fight to the mat and finish via submission in the first round. He acknowledges the line might be wide but believes Yahya should win.
Daniel Levi picks Rani Yahya via submission, believing Yahya's grappling will be too much for Ray Rodriguez. He notes Yahya's early submission series is dangerous, but if Rodriguez survives the first round and a half, Yahya may gas out. He suggests live betting on Rodriguez if the fight goes past seven minutes. He acknowledges Yahya's history of losing to wrestlers but thinks Rodriguez lacks the grappling to avoid a submission.
Lock thinks Yahya might be worth the chalk despite the wide line, because Rodriguez 'does not look good.' He believes Yahya could snatch a quick submission. However, he hasn't run tape yet and wants to confirm. He's leaning towards Yahya but not fully committed.
The Guru considers Rani Yahya underrated in the bantamweight division and expects him to dominate with his grappling. He worries about Yahya's chin but believes Yahya can secure takedowns and control Rodriguez on the ground. He criticizes Rodriguez's UFC credentials, noting his submission losses and lack of stand-up ability. The Guru predicts a 30-27 unanimous decision for Yahya, with Yahya diving for takedowns at the end of each round to secure the win.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Enrique Barzola | 0 | 24 of 45 | 53% | 58 of 83 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 1 | 4:48 |
| Rani Yahya | 0 | 57 of 86 | 66% | 148 of 187 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 1 | 6:49 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Enrique Barzola | 0 | 17 of 29 | 58% | 20 of 32 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 1 | 1:47 |
| Rani Yahya | 0 | 10 of 21 | 47% | 33 of 49 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:04 | |
| 2 | Enrique Barzola | 0 | 7 of 13 | 53% | 35 of 44 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:01 |
| Rani Yahya | 0 | 6 of 17 | 35% | 30 of 42 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 0:58 | |
| 3 | Enrique Barzola | 0 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 3 of 7 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Rani Yahya | 0 | 41 of 48 | 85% | 85 of 96 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 4:47 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Enrique Barzola | 24 of 45 | 53% | 12 of 30 | 5 of 7 | 7 of 8 | 19 of 38 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 5 |
| Rani Yahya | 57 of 86 | 66% | 39 of 65 | 18 of 20 | 0 of 1 | 10 of 36 | 1 of 1 | 46 of 49 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Enrique Barzola | 17 of 29 | 58% | 8 of 19 | 3 of 4 | 6 of 6 | 15 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Rani Yahya | 10 of 21 | 47% | 6 of 16 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 4 | |
| 2 | Enrique Barzola | 7 of 13 | 53% | 4 of 8 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 |
| Rani Yahya | 6 of 17 | 35% | 5 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | |
| 3 | Enrique Barzola | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Rani Yahya | 41 of 48 | 85% | 28 of 34 | 13 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 39 of 42 |
Daniel is confident in Barzola, citing his wrestling advantage and size at bantamweight. He thinks Barzola's wrestling defense will hold up and that he can take Yahya down or keep it standing. He predicts a decision win, possibly a finish.
The host picks Enrique Barzola over Rani Yahya. He notes that Barzola is in his prime and has faced tough competition, while Yahya has been beaten badly in recent fights and has been off for over a year. He expects Barzola to bully Yahya and win by TKO in the first or second round, provided he makes weight safely.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky SimĂłn | 0 | 47 of 186 | 25% | 52 of 195 | 0 of 9 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Rani Yahya | 2 | 54 of 137 | 39% | 66 of 150 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 0 | 0 | 3:49 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ricky SimĂłn | 0 | 21 of 62 | 33% | 22 of 64 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Rani Yahya | 2 | 20 of 49 | 40% | 21 of 50 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:45 | |
| 2 | Ricky SimĂłn | 0 | 19 of 82 | 23% | 21 of 85 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Rani Yahya | 0 | 11 of 43 | 25% | 16 of 48 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:04 | |
| 3 | Ricky SimĂłn | 0 | 7 of 42 | 16% | 9 of 46 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Rani Yahya | 0 | 23 of 45 | 51% | 29 of 52 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky SimĂłn | 47 of 186 | 25% | 29 of 159 | 10 of 14 | 8 of 13 | 47 of 186 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Rani Yahya | 54 of 137 | 39% | 40 of 116 | 9 of 16 | 5 of 5 | 38 of 114 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 23 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ricky SimĂłn | 21 of 62 | 33% | 11 of 46 | 4 of 7 | 6 of 9 | 21 of 62 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Rani Yahya | 20 of 49 | 40% | 12 of 39 | 5 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 15 of 43 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 6 | |
| 2 | Ricky SimĂłn | 19 of 82 | 23% | 12 of 72 | 5 of 6 | 2 of 4 | 19 of 82 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Rani Yahya | 11 of 43 | 25% | 8 of 37 | 2 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 6 | |
| 3 | Ricky SimĂłn | 7 of 42 | 16% | 6 of 41 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 42 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Rani Yahya | 23 of 45 | 51% | 20 of 40 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 15 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 11 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rani Yahya | 0 | 4 of 8 | 50% | 4 of 8 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 2 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Luke Sanders | 0 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:22 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rani Yahya | 0 | 4 of 8 | 50% | 4 of 8 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 2 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Luke Sanders | 0 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:22 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rani Yahya | 4 of 8 | 50% | 1 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Luke Sanders | 2 of 4 | 50% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rani Yahya | 4 of 8 | 50% | 1 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Luke Sanders | 2 of 4 | 50% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rani Yahya | 0 | 17 of 20 | 85% | 105 of 149 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 2 | 1 | 9:57 |
| Russell Doane | 0 | 2 of 8 | 25% | 15 of 30 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:22 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rani Yahya | 0 | 14 of 15 | 93% | 41 of 46 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 4:07 |
| Russell Doane | 0 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Rani Yahya | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 60 of 98 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:38 |
| Russell Doane | 0 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 11 of 22 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Rani Yahya | 0 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 4 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 1 | 1:12 |
| Russell Doane | 0 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:22 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rani Yahya | 17 of 20 | 85% | 1 of 4 | 14 of 14 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 15 |
| Russell Doane | 2 of 8 | 25% | 0 of 5 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rani Yahya | 14 of 15 | 93% | 0 of 1 | 14 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 14 |
| Russell Doane | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Rani Yahya | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Russell Doane | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Rani Yahya | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Russell Doane | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Expert Picks (8)
Angelo picks Montel Jackson easily, stating he should defend every takedown from Yahya and light him up on the feet. He notes Yahya's low takedown accuracy (24%) and that he relies on opponents shooting takedowns to get to the ground. He recommends parlaying Jackson.
Big Brady picks Montel Jackson to win by first-round knockout. He notes that Jackson is the biggest favorite on the card and has a huge reach and size advantage over the 38-year-old Yahya. Jackson has a ton of knockdowns and Yahya has been dropped in recent fights. Brady believes Jackson will stuff takedowns, keep the fight on the feet, and knock Yahya down repeatedly until the fight is stopped. He sees this as a terrible matchup for Yahya.
Cody picks Montel Jackson, citing his massive reach and strength advantages. He notes Yahya is old (38), has poor wrestling and striking, and relies on flopping to his back to avoid damage. Cody believes Jackson can keep the fight standing and use his reach to pick Yahya apart, possibly getting a knockout. He mentions a prop on PrizePicks for under 1.5 takedowns for Jackson, as he expects Jackson to avoid grappling.
Connor picks Montel Jackson, believing he is improving despite himself and that his natural athleticism and size will be too much for Yahya. He notes that Jackson's ability to easily shut down takedowns, as seen against Ricky Simon, will be key. However, he acknowledges that Jackson tends to make fights more competitive than needed and that Yahya is a dedicated grappler who can take a mile if given an inch.
Montel Jackson has significant speed and power advantages, and his kicks can keep Yahya at distance. Yahya is a jiu-jitsu specialist who struggles to get takedowns and has poor cardio. Jackson should be able to pick him apart and eventually land a knockout. However, Jackson has lacked killer instinct and has been taken down by grapplers before. If Yahya gets a hold of him, he could grind out a win. Jackson by knockout in the second round is the pick, but with low confidence.
Paul also picks Jackson, agreeing with Cody's assessment. He adds that Yahya's Jiu-Jitsu is good but his wrestling is bad, and Jackson has good takedown defense. Paul notes that judges now favor damage, so even if Yahya gets takedowns, Jackson's striking should win rounds. He expects Jackson to win, possibly by knockout.
The MMA Guru calls this the lock of the card, stating there is no chance Rani Yahya wins. He highlights Montel Jackson's wicked striking and improving skills, and his ability to stuff takedowns with good wrist control. He notes Yahya's age, injuries, and inability to get the fight to the ground. He predicts a KO in the first or second round.
Zane also picks Montel Jackson, agreeing that he is probably too innately good and big for Yahya. He notes that Yahya is self-destructive and puts a ton of energy into grappling, and that Jackson's physicality should allow him to rebuff Yahya's wrestling. Zane mentions that Jackson's ability to just grab a wrist and control an opponent's arm is a huge advantage.
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