Alexander Yakovlev vs Alex da Silva Coelho

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Joel Alvarez	0	4 of 6	66%	10 of 13	0 of 0	---	2	0	0:00
Alexander Yakovlev	0	1 of 1	100%	15 of 16	1 of 1	100%	0	0	1:57

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Joel Alvarez	0	4 of 6	66%	10 of 13	0 of 0	---	2	0	0:00
Alexander Yakovlev	0	1 of 1	100%	15 of 16	1 of 1	100%	0	0	1:57

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Joel Alvarez	4 of 6	66%	1 of 3	0 of 0	3 of 3	3 of 5	0 of 0	1 of 1
Alexander Yakovlev	1 of 1	100%	0 of 0	0 of 0	1 of 1	1 of 1	0 of 0	0 of 0

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Joel Alvarez	4 of 6	66%	1 of 3	0 of 0	3 of 3	3 of 5	0 of 0	1 of 1
Alexander Yakovlev	1 of 1	100%	0 of 0	0 of 0	1 of 1	1 of 1	0 of 0	0 of 0

Joel Alvarez (*159.5) vs. Alexander Yakovlev

Round 1
It’s time for the big show in the early hours for U.S.-based fans, and we start this much anticipated pay-per-view event on the early prelims with a 160-pound catchweight affair. Spanish submission specialist Alvarez (17-2, 2-1 UFC), who has notched a whopping 88 percent of his wins by sub, faces off against durable Russian Yakovlev (25-10-1, 3-5 UFC) after the former missed weight by nearly four pounds. Referee Jason Herzog is in charge of the cage for this card opener, and with a touch of gloves, away we go! Yakovlev sways back and forth early to try to find an angle, and he opens up with a head kick. His Spanish foe responds with a head kick that gets blocked, and a body kick that is not nearly as protected. When Alvarez throws a naked leg kick, Yakovlev crashes forward into a takedown. The Russian leaves his neck exposed on the way down, so Alvarez welcomes him down and snatches up a guillotine choke. Yakovlev stays composed and nearly pulls his head out, but Alvarez redoubles his effort and squeezes with all his might. Alvarez locks up his legs and continues to burn out his arms, until he cannot maintain this crushing grip and Yakovlev wrenches his head free. In full guard, Yakovlev starts to get off some short ground-and-pound, but Alvarez is quick to adjust and throw his legs up for an armbar.
Yakovlev falls to his back and he tries to roll through the submission, but halfway through his rotation, the Russian’s elbow hyperextends and he has to tap out.
That is now 16 submissions across 18 wins for the Spaniard, who now posts back-to-back first-round submission victories inside the Octagon. Alvarez still maintains a spectacular 100 percent finish rate in victory.

The Official Result
Joel Alvarez def. Alexander Yakovlev R1 3:00 via Submission (Armbar)

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 20, 2020 (4 days before fight)

Joel Alvarez

Big Brady picks Joel Alvarez, citing his youth (27) and improvements shown in his last fight against Joe Duffy. He notes Alvarez's strong submission game (88% of wins by submission) and Yakovlev's history of being submitted four times. He predicts a first-round submission, though he acknowledges a decision is possible.

submission, first round

"give me alvarez by first round submission there"

DFS by the Numbers

Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2020 (1 day before fight)

Joel Alvarez

Daniel Levi picks Joel Alvarez, comparing him to a young Chito Vera and noting his opportunistic finishing ability. He acknowledges Yakovlev's wrestling edge and experience but points out the 10-year age advantage and Alvarez's upward trajectory. He expects Alvarez to finish Yakovlev somewhere along the way, possibly by submission or TKO.

Alvarez missed weight at 159.5 lbs; he is a finisher who has only gone to decision once; Yakovlev has a 10-year age disadvantage

"i'm going to go with joe alvarez to opportunistically finish alexandria left somewhere along the way"

Half the Battle

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Oct 19, 2020 (5 days before fight)

Joel Alvarez

The host picks Joel Alvarez but is not confident, noting that Alvarez is younger and improving, while Yakovlev is older and on the decline. He mentions that Alvarez should have the advantage on the feet but the fight could hinge on scrambles. He ultimately leans Alvarez but says the value is on Yakovlev as a dog.

Alvarez decision, Yakovlev inside the distance, fight goes to distance +145

"I will go with joel alvarez i think he could keep this fight on the feet um i think he'll go out there and i'll box shock of love use some good leg kicks"

MMA Lock of the Night

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 16, 2020 (8 days before fight)

Joel Alvarez

The MMA Guru picks Joel Alvarez to win by submission in the first or second round. He notes that Alvarez is younger (26), bigger, rangier, and has a reach advantage over Yakovlev, who is 36 and past his prime. He also highlights that Yakovlev has been submitted multiple times in his career and that Alvarez is coming off a big win over Joe Duffy as an underdog.

submission in first or second round

"i think joel alvarez is going to get the job done and probably get it done by submission in the first or second round"

THE MMA GURU

LOSS vs Roosevelt Roberts

Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Magomedsharipov vs. Kattar · Nov 09, 2019

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Roosevelt Roberts	0	20 of 49	40%	38 of 71	3 of 8	37%	0	0	6:19
Alexander Yakovlev	0	28 of 98	28%	56 of 128	0 of 0	---	0	0	1:54

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Roosevelt Roberts	8 of 16	50%	8 of 16	0 of 1	0%	1:03
1	Alexander Yakovlev	16 of 49	32%	19 of 52	0 of 0	---	0:22
2	Roosevelt Roberts	7 of 12	58%	17 of 23	2 of 2	100%	3:42
2	Alexander Yakovlev	2 of 8	25%	8 of 14	0 of 0	---	0:00
3	Roosevelt Roberts	5 of 21	23%	13 of 32	1 of 5	20%	1:34
3	Alexander Yakovlev	10 of 41	24%	29 of 62	0 of 0	---	1:32

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Roosevelt Roberts	20 of 49	40%	8 of 34	6 of 9	6 of 6	12 of 38	1 of 1	7 of 10
Alexander Yakovlev	28 of 98	28%	22 of 90	2 of 4	4 of 4	27 of 96	1 of 2	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Roosevelt Roberts	8 of 16	50%	1 of 8	1 of 2	6 of 6	7 of 15	1 of 1	0 of 0
1	Alexander Yakovlev	16 of 49	32%	10 of 42	2 of 3	4 of 4	15 of 47	1 of 2	0 of 0
2	Roosevelt Roberts	7 of 12	58%	4 of 8	3 of 4	0 of 0	0 of 2	0 of 0	7 of 10
2	Alexander Yakovlev	2 of 8	25%	2 of 8	0 of 0	0 of 0	2 of 8	0 of 0	0 of 0
3	Roosevelt Roberts	5 of 21	23%	3 of 18	2 of 3	0 of 0	5 of 21	0 of 0	0 of 0
3	Alexander Yakovlev	10 of 41	24%	10 of 40	0 of 1	0 of 0	10 of 41	0 of 0	0 of 0

WIN vs Alex da Silva Coelho

Submission (guillotine choke) R2 3:10 · UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Oleinik · Apr 20, 2019

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Alexander Yakovlev	0	14 of 19	73%	18 of 23	1 of 2	50%	1	0	2:13
Alex da Silva Coelho	0	8 of 19	42%	10 of 23	1 of 3	33%	0	0	4:30

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Ctrl
1	Alexander Yakovlev	7 of 10	70%	9 of 12	0 of 1	0%	0	1:12
1	Alex da Silva Coelho	7 of 16	43%	8 of 17	1 of 3	33%	0	2:32
2	Alexander Yakovlev	7 of 9	77%	9 of 11	1 of 1	100%	1	1:01
2	Alex da Silva Coelho	1 of 3	33%	2 of 6	0 of 0	---	0	1:58

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Alexander Yakovlev	14 of 19	73%	9 of 14	4 of 4	1 of 1	2 of 6	5 of 5	7 of 8
Alex da Silva Coelho	8 of 19	42%	3 of 14	3 of 3	2 of 2	2 of 11	3 of 3	3 of 5

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Alexander Yakovlev	7 of 10	70%	2 of 5	4 of 4	1 of 1	2 of 5	5 of 5	0 of 0
1	Alex da Silva Coelho	7 of 16	43%	2 of 11	3 of 3	2 of 2	2 of 11	3 of 3	2 of 2
2	Alexander Yakovlev	7 of 9	77%	7 of 9	0 of 0	0 of 0	0 of 1	0 of 0	7 of 8
2	Alex da Silva Coelho	1 of 3	33%	1 of 3	0 of 0	0 of 0	0 of 0	0 of 0	1 of 3

LOSS vs Zak Cummings

Submission (straight armbar) R2 4:02 · UFC Fight Night: Mousasi vs. Hall 2 · Nov 19, 2016

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Zak Cummings	0	24 of 80	30%	38 of 94	0 of 0	---	1	0	1:10
Alexander Yakovlev	0	18 of 41	43%	18 of 41	1 of 2	50%	0	0	0:02

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Ctrl
1	Zak Cummings	10 of 34	29%	21 of 45	0 of 0	---	0	0:38
1	Alexander Yakovlev	12 of 26	46%	12 of 26	1 of 1	100%	0	0:02
2	Zak Cummings	14 of 46	30%	17 of 49	0 of 0	---	1	0:32
2	Alexander Yakovlev	6 of 15	40%	6 of 15	0 of 1	0%	0	0:00

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Zak Cummings	24 of 80	30%	14 of 67	3 of 6	7 of 7	22 of 74	2 of 5	0 of 1
Alexander Yakovlev	18 of 41	43%	9 of 27	4 of 6	5 of 8	18 of 40	0 of 0	0 of 1

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Zak Cummings	10 of 34	29%	5 of 27	1 of 3	4 of 4	9 of 32	1 of 2	0 of 0
1	Alexander Yakovlev	12 of 26	46%	6 of 16	2 of 3	4 of 7	12 of 25	0 of 0	0 of 1
2	Zak Cummings	14 of 46	30%	9 of 40	2 of 3	3 of 3	13 of 42	1 of 3	0 of 1
2	Alexander Yakovlev	6 of 15	40%	3 of 11	2 of 3	1 of 1	6 of 15	0 of 0	0 of 0

LOSS vs Kamaru Usman

Decision (unanimous) (30–25, 30–25, 30–25) R3 5:00 · UFC on Fox: Holm vs. Shevchenko · Jul 23, 2016

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Kamaru Usman	0	41 of 67	61%	155 of 195	5 of 9	55%	0	0	13:02
Alexander Yakovlev	0	8 of 15	53%	11 of 18	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Kamaru Usman	10 of 13	76%	39 of 47	1 of 5	20%	4:45
1	Alexander Yakovlev	1 of 3	33%	4 of 6	0 of 0	---	0:00
2	Kamaru Usman	17 of 33	51%	56 of 76	1 of 1	100%	3:41
2	Alexander Yakovlev	7 of 10	70%	7 of 10	0 of 0	---	0:00
3	Kamaru Usman	14 of 21	66%	60 of 72	3 of 3	100%	4:36
3	Alexander Yakovlev	0 of 2	0%	0 of 2	0 of 0	---	0:00

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Kamaru Usman	41 of 67	61%	26 of 46	10 of 15	5 of 6	0 of 21	1 of 2	40 of 44
Alexander Yakovlev	8 of 15	53%	1 of 5	6 of 9	1 of 1	5 of 11	3 of 4	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Kamaru Usman	10 of 13	76%	6 of 9	0 of 0	4 of 4	0 of 2	0 of 1	10 of 10
1	Alexander Yakovlev	1 of 3	33%	0 of 0	1 of 3	0 of 0	0 of 1	1 of 2	0 of 0
2	Kamaru Usman	17 of 33	51%	8 of 19	8 of 12	1 of 2	0 of 15	1 of 1	16 of 17
2	Alexander Yakovlev	7 of 10	70%	1 of 3	5 of 6	1 of 1	5 of 8	2 of 2	0 of 0
3	Kamaru Usman	14 of 21	66%	12 of 18	2 of 3	0 of 0	0 of 4	0 of 0	14 of 17
3	Alexander Yakovlev	0 of 2	0%	0 of 2	0 of 0	0 of 0	0 of 2	0 of 0	0 of 0

WIN vs George Sullivan

KO (punch) R1 3:59 · UFC on Fox: Johnson vs. Bader · Jan 30, 2016

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Alexander Yakovlev	0	14 of 22	63%	19 of 27	0 of 0	---	0	0	1:43
George Sullivan	1	15 of 18	83%	17 of 20	2 of 2	100%	0	0	0:00

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Alexander Yakovlev	0	14 of 22	63%	19 of 27	0 of 0	---	0	0	1:43
1	George Sullivan	1	15 of 18	83%	17 of 20	2 of 2	100%	0	0	0:00

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Alexander Yakovlev	14 of 22	63%	1 of 6	5 of 5	8 of 11	11 of 19	3 of 3	0 of 0
George Sullivan	15 of 18	83%	5 of 7	5 of 6	5 of 5	8 of 10	3 of 4	4 of 4

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Alexander Yakovlev	14 of 22	63%	1 of 6	5 of 5	8 of 11	11 of 19	3 of 3	0 of 0
1	George Sullivan	15 of 18	83%	5 of 7	5 of 6	5 of 5	8 of 10	3 of 4	4 of 4

WIN vs Gray Maynard

Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Mendes vs. Lamas · Apr 04, 2015

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Alexander Yakovlev	0	21 of 55	38%	27 of 61	2 of 17	11%	0	0	2:54
Gray Maynard	1	31 of 72	43%	46 of 92	2 of 5	40%	0	0	2:53

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Alexander Yakovlev	0	8 of 27	29%	10 of 29	0 of 4	0%	0:52
1	Gray Maynard	0	5 of 19	26%	5 of 19	1 of 3	33%	0:30
2	Alexander Yakovlev	0	7 of 18	38%	8 of 19	1 of 7	14%	1:06
2	Gray Maynard	1	18 of 35	51%	21 of 41	0 of 0	---	1:18
3	Alexander Yakovlev	0	6 of 10	60%	9 of 13	1 of 6	16%	0:56
3	Gray Maynard	0	8 of 18	44%	20 of 32	1 of 2	50%	1:05

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Alexander Yakovlev	21 of 55	38%	16 of 41	3 of 12	2 of 2	18 of 48	3 of 7	0 of 0
Gray Maynard	31 of 72	43%	21 of 59	9 of 11	1 of 2	15 of 49	8 of 12	8 of 11

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Alexander Yakovlev	8 of 27	29%	6 of 22	2 of 5	0 of 0	7 of 26	1 of 1	0 of 0
1	Gray Maynard	5 of 19	26%	0 of 12	5 of 6	0 of 1	2 of 15	3 of 4	0 of 0
2	Alexander Yakovlev	7 of 18	38%	5 of 10	1 of 7	1 of 1	6 of 15	1 of 3	0 of 0
2	Gray Maynard	18 of 35	51%	13 of 29	4 of 5	1 of 1	5 of 16	5 of 8	8 of 11
3	Alexander Yakovlev	6 of 10	60%	5 of 9	0 of 0	1 of 1	5 of 7	1 of 3	0 of 0
3	Gray Maynard	8 of 18	44%	8 of 18	0 of 0	0 of 0	8 of 18	0 of 0	0 of 0

LOSS vs Nicholas Musoke

Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs. Story · Oct 04, 2014

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Nicholas Musoke	0	70 of 156	44%	97 of 183	0 of 4	0%	0	0	6:47
Alexander Yakovlev	0	44 of 107	41%	44 of 107	0 of 9	0%	0	0	0:05

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Nicholas Musoke	17 of 38	44%	32 of 53	0 of 0	---	3:14
1	Alexander Yakovlev	10 of 19	52%	10 of 19	0 of 4	0%	0:00
2	Nicholas Musoke	31 of 60	51%	39 of 68	0 of 2	0%	2:01
2	Alexander Yakovlev	13 of 38	34%	13 of 38	0 of 2	0%	0:03
3	Nicholas Musoke	22 of 58	37%	26 of 62	0 of 2	0%	1:32
3	Alexander Yakovlev	21 of 50	42%	21 of 50	0 of 3	0%	0:02

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Nicholas Musoke	70 of 156	44%	41 of 126	15 of 16	14 of 14	53 of 135	17 of 21	0 of 0
Alexander Yakovlev	44 of 107	41%	24 of 83	11 of 15	9 of 9	43 of 106	1 of 1	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Nicholas Musoke	17 of 38	44%	6 of 27	3 of 3	8 of 8	8 of 28	9 of 10	0 of 0
1	Alexander Yakovlev	10 of 19	52%	4 of 12	4 of 5	2 of 2	9 of 18	1 of 1	0 of 0
2	Nicholas Musoke	31 of 60	51%	19 of 47	8 of 9	4 of 4	27 of 54	4 of 6	0 of 0
2	Alexander Yakovlev	13 of 38	34%	6 of 29	3 of 5	4 of 4	13 of 38	0 of 0	0 of 0
3	Nicholas Musoke	22 of 58	37%	16 of 52	4 of 4	2 of 2	18 of 53	4 of 5	0 of 0
3	Alexander Yakovlev	21 of 50	42%	14 of 42	4 of 5	3 of 3	21 of 50	0 of 0	0 of 0

View all 9 fights

Alex da Silva Coelho - Fight History

LOSS vs Joe Solecki

Decision (majority) (28–28, 28–27, 29–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Rozenstruik · Jun 04, 2022

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Joe Solecki	0	33 of 82	40%	91 of 144	1 of 4	25%	3	0	4:51
Alex da Silva Coelho	1	35 of 76	46%	54 of 96	0 of 0	---	0	0	5:55

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Ctrl
1	Joe Solecki	0	3 of 5	60%	24 of 27	0 of 0	---	1	0:11
1	Alex da Silva Coelho	1	6 of 8	75%	17 of 19	0 of 0	---	0	4:32
2	Joe Solecki	0	3 of 4	75%	31 of 34	1 of 2	50%	2	4:40
2	Alex da Silva Coelho	0	1 of 3	33%	7 of 10	0 of 0	---	0	0:00
3	Joe Solecki	0	27 of 73	36%	36 of 83	0 of 2	0%	0	0:00
3	Alex da Silva Coelho	0	28 of 65	43%	30 of 67	0 of 0	---	0	1:23

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Joe Solecki	33 of 82	40%	32 of 81	0 of 0	1 of 1	30 of 77	1 of 3	2 of 2
Alex da Silva Coelho	35 of 76	46%	20 of 58	11 of 12	4 of 6	29 of 67	1 of 2	5 of 7

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Joe Solecki	3 of 5	60%	3 of 5	0 of 0	0 of 0	3 of 5	0 of 0	0 of 0
1	Alex da Silva Coelho	6 of 8	75%	4 of 6	2 of 2	0 of 0	3 of 4	0 of 0	3 of 4
2	Joe Solecki	3 of 4	75%	3 of 4	0 of 0	0 of 0	1 of 2	0 of 0	2 of 2
2	Alex da Silva Coelho	1 of 3	33%	0 of 2	0 of 0	1 of 1	1 of 3	0 of 0	0 of 0
3	Joe Solecki	27 of 73	36%	26 of 72	0 of 0	1 of 1	26 of 70	1 of 3	0 of 0
3	Alex da Silva Coelho	28 of 65	43%	16 of 50	9 of 10	3 of 5	25 of 60	1 of 2	2 of 3

Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked May 29, 2022 (6 days before fight)

Alex da Silva Coelho

Angelo calls this a very close fight. Joe Solecki is a grappler with clean boxing but lost to more technical strikers. Alex da Silva is a slick striker with power and good wrestling. Angelo notes the odds favor Solecki at -165 but thinks da Silva may have the edge in power and willingness to wrestle first. He is torn but leans da Silva, and considers a +3.5 round buy bet.

considering a plus 3.5 round buy bet on da Silva

"this pick is really hard and i think i'm leaning alex here but i might change that later in the week i'm really really torn here"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked May 30, 2022 (5 days before fight)

Alex da Silva Coelho

Big Brady picks Alex da Silva Coelho to win by decision as an underdog. He thinks da Silva is the better striker and well-rounded, but his main concern is cardio, as da Silva has faded in past fights. He is hoping da Silva has improved his gas tank during his 20-month layoff. He notes that Solecki is a BJJ black belt but da Silva has good grappling and wrestling. He believes da Silva can win the first two rounds and possibly hold on for a decision, but is not overly confident.

da Silva by decision

"I will take to silva i'm hoping and banking on him hoping hoping to make improvements here in terms of the cardio"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Joe Solecki

Cody picks Solecki, noting his BJJ black belt and wrestling. He thinks da Silva's cardio issues will be exploited and Solecki will take his back. He is confident in Solecki's grappling advantage.

"i think eventually he finds the back puts the body triangle in and just wears on him"

Bookie Beatdown

Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 2, 2022 (2 days before fight)

Joe Solecki

Daniel Levi picks Joe Solecki, citing his consistent grappling and fight IQ. He acknowledges Alex da Silva's talent but notes his cardio issues and mental lapses. He sees Solecki as the safer pick but does not see value at -170, so he will not bet it. He calls it a 'dog or pass' situation.

"pure pick solecki just because i think he's proven a little bit more and because i think he kind of know he's kind of comfortable with who he is as a fighter"

Half the Battle

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Joe Solecki

Paul picks Solecki, citing his superior grappling and cardio. He notes da Silva's tendency to gas and thinks Solecki will take his back and submit him or win a decision. He likes the price and expects Solecki to find a submission in the later rounds.

Solecki by submission or decision

"i'm leaning towards selecting by decision but to be honest a selective third round submission something like that wouldn't surprise me either"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 30, 2022 (5 days before fight)

Joe Solecki

The MMA Guru picks Joe Solecki, though his analysis is brief and somewhat incoherent due to illness. He states he doesn't see Alex da Silva Coelho out-grappling Solecki and references Coelho's loss to Yakovlev. He calls Solecki a 'good grappler' and implies he will win, but does not provide a specific method or round.

"i'm gonna go with joe salecki he's a [ __ ] good grapp"

THE MMA GURU

LOSS vs Brad Riddell

Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa · Sep 27, 2020

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Brad Riddell	0	67 of 166	40%	86 of 185	1 of 6	16%	0	0	1:24
Alex da Silva Coelho	0	54 of 112	48%	70 of 133	3 of 9	33%	1	1	5:17

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Brad Riddell	7 of 18	38%	13 of 24	0 of 1	0%	0	0	0:18
1	Alex da Silva Coelho	13 of 20	65%	19 of 30	3 of 3	100%	1	1	3:22
2	Brad Riddell	25 of 59	42%	37 of 71	1 of 3	33%	0	0	0:29
2	Alex da Silva Coelho	18 of 43	41%	22 of 48	0 of 3	0%	0	0	1:15
3	Brad Riddell	35 of 89	39%	36 of 90	0 of 2	0%	0	0	0:37
3	Alex da Silva Coelho	23 of 49	46%	29 of 55	0 of 3	0%	0	0	0:40

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Brad Riddell	67 of 166	40%	47 of 142	13 of 16	7 of 8	61 of 158	5 of 7	1 of 1
Alex da Silva Coelho	54 of 112	48%	35 of 91	10 of 12	9 of 9	49 of 105	4 of 6	1 of 1

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Brad Riddell	7 of 18	38%	4 of 15	2 of 2	1 of 1	7 of 18	0 of 0	0 of 0
1	Alex da Silva Coelho	13 of 20	65%	6 of 13	3 of 3	4 of 4	10 of 17	2 of 2	1 of 1
2	Brad Riddell	25 of 59	42%	16 of 49	6 of 7	3 of 3	22 of 54	3 of 5	0 of 0
2	Alex da Silva Coelho	18 of 43	41%	10 of 34	4 of 5	4 of 4	18 of 42	0 of 1	0 of 0
3	Brad Riddell	35 of 89	39%	27 of 78	5 of 7	3 of 4	32 of 86	2 of 2	1 of 1
3	Alex da Silva Coelho	23 of 49	46%	19 of 44	3 of 4	1 of 1	21 of 46	2 of 3	0 of 0

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 23, 2020 (4 days before fight)

Brad Riddell

Big Brady picks Riddell, impressed by his hands and pace. He thinks da Silva's competition is weak and that Riddell will out-strike him, forcing bad takedowns and finishing in the third round. He acknowledges da Silva's submission threat but believes Riddell's get-up game is strong.

Riddell by third-round knockout

"i'm gonna go with riddell here to get a knockout uh dasilva has never been knocked out but he's also you know not fought the best competition"

DFS by the Numbers

Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Sep 25, 2020 (2 days before fight)

Brad Riddell

Daniel Levi leans Brad Riddell because he has been more impressed with his precision, calmness, and improvements in takedown defense. He notes Alex da Silva Coelho has not shown his Muay Thai in the UFC and may not be confident striking. He is not sure about laying -340 but picks Riddell to win.

"i have to lean riddell just because i've been more impressed with what i've seen so far he's so precise so calculated so calm"

Half the Battle

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 26, 2020 (1 day before fight)

Alex da Silva Coelho

The host picks Alex da Silva as a live underdog, believing the line on Riddell is too wide. He notes that da Silva has a solid path to victory via grappling and that Riddell's wins are not dominant. He expects a close fight and predicts da Silva wins by decision.

"I'd be happy taking a small shot at da silva here i think the kid's talented and i think he's gonna upset some people."

MMA Lock of the Night

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 20, 2020 (7 days before fight)

Brad Riddell

The MMA Guru picks Brad Riddell, emphasizing his experience against high-level UFC competition, including a win over Magomed Mustafaev. He thinks Riddell is one fight away from a ranked opponent and will make a statement with a TKO finish. He notes Alex da Silva has lost to gatekeepers and hasn't jumped that level.

Win by TKO finish

"i think brad riddell is going to go out there and make a statement against alex de silva getting it done by tko finish"

THE MMA GURU

WIN vs Kazula Vargas

Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Shevchenko vs. Carmouche 2 · Aug 10, 2019

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Alex da Silva Coelho	0	20 of 42	47%	59 of 92	0 of 1	0%	0	1	0:18
Kazula Vargas	0	17 of 39	43%	88 of 130	3 of 4	75%	0	0	12:01

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Alex da Silva Coelho	8 of 12	66%	21 of 32	0 of 0	---	1	0:18
1	Kazula Vargas	3 of 6	50%	16 of 25	1 of 1	100%	0	4:31
2	Alex da Silva Coelho	6 of 13	46%	27 of 38	0 of 1	0%	0	0:00
2	Kazula Vargas	9 of 17	52%	41 of 57	1 of 1	100%	0	4:14
3	Alex da Silva Coelho	6 of 17	35%	11 of 22	0 of 0	---	0	0:00
3	Kazula Vargas	5 of 16	31%	31 of 48	1 of 2	50%	0	3:16

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Alex da Silva Coelho	20 of 42	47%	16 of 37	2 of 3	2 of 2	13 of 34	0 of 0	7 of 8
Kazula Vargas	17 of 39	43%	14 of 35	1 of 2	2 of 2	7 of 28	1 of 1	9 of 10

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Alex da Silva Coelho	8 of 12	66%	8 of 12	0 of 0	0 of 0	2 of 5	0 of 0	6 of 7
1	Kazula Vargas	3 of 6	50%	3 of 6	0 of 0	0 of 0	1 of 4	0 of 0	2 of 2
2	Alex da Silva Coelho	6 of 13	46%	3 of 10	1 of 1	2 of 2	5 of 12	0 of 0	1 of 1
2	Kazula Vargas	9 of 17	52%	8 of 15	1 of 2	0 of 0	3 of 10	0 of 0	6 of 7
3	Alex da Silva Coelho	6 of 17	35%	5 of 15	1 of 2	0 of 0	6 of 17	0 of 0	0 of 0
3	Kazula Vargas	5 of 16	31%	3 of 14	0 of 0	2 of 2	3 of 14	1 of 1	1 of 1

LOSS vs Alexander Yakovlev

Submission (guillotine choke) R2 3:10 · UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Oleinik · Apr 20, 2019

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Alexander Yakovlev	0	14 of 19	73%	18 of 23	1 of 2	50%	1	0	2:13
Alex da Silva Coelho	0	8 of 19	42%	10 of 23	1 of 3	33%	0	0	4:30

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Ctrl
1	Alexander Yakovlev	7 of 10	70%	9 of 12	0 of 1	0%	0	1:12
1	Alex da Silva Coelho	7 of 16	43%	8 of 17	1 of 3	33%	0	2:32
2	Alexander Yakovlev	7 of 9	77%	9 of 11	1 of 1	100%	1	1:01
2	Alex da Silva Coelho	1 of 3	33%	2 of 6	0 of 0	---	0	1:58

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Alexander Yakovlev	14 of 19	73%	9 of 14	4 of 4	1 of 1	2 of 6	5 of 5	7 of 8
Alex da Silva Coelho	8 of 19	42%	3 of 14	3 of 3	2 of 2	2 of 11	3 of 3	3 of 5

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Alexander Yakovlev	7 of 10	70%	2 of 5	4 of 4	1 of 1	2 of 5	5 of 5	0 of 0
1	Alex da Silva Coelho	7 of 16	43%	2 of 11	3 of 3	2 of 2	2 of 11	3 of 3	2 of 2
2	Alexander Yakovlev	7 of 9	77%	7 of 9	0 of 0	0 of 0	0 of 1	0 of 0	7 of 8
2	Alex da Silva Coelho	1 of 3	33%	1 of 3	0 of 0	0 of 0	0 of 0	0 of 0	1 of 3