Career Averages - Shamil Abdurakhimov
Career Averages - Marcin Tybura
Shamil Abdurakhimov - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jailton Almeida | 0 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Shamil Abdurakhimov | 0 | 45 of 57 | 78% | 89 of 110 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 7:28 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jailton Almeida | 0 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Shamil Abdurakhimov | 0 | 14 of 17 | 82% | 25 of 31 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 4:45 | |
| 2 | Jailton Almeida | 0 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Shamil Abdurakhimov | 0 | 31 of 40 | 77% | 64 of 79 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:43 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jailton Almeida | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Shamil Abdurakhimov | 45 of 57 | 78% | 44 of 55 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 44 of 52 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jailton Almeida | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Shamil Abdurakhimov | 14 of 17 | 82% | 14 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 15 | |
| 2 | Jailton Almeida | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Shamil Abdurakhimov | 31 of 40 | 77% | 30 of 38 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 30 of 37 |
Big Brady is extremely confident in Almeida, calling him the biggest favorite on the card. He notes Abdurakhimov has been pulled out of fights repeatedly and is being fed to Almeida. He expects Almeida to take the fight down and finish in the first round, similar to Curtis Blaydes' win over Abdurakhimov but earlier. He says you can't even think about picking Shamil.
Cody picks Jailton Almeida confidently, expecting him to take down and smash Abdurakhimov. He notes Almeida's grappling is elite and Abdurakhimov's takedown defense is poor. He mentions Almeida's size disadvantage but thinks his skills overcome it. He says Almeida will win inside the distance, likely by submission. He acknowledges the -900 line is scary but thinks Almeida is the real deal.
Connor agrees, calling Almeida a great athlete with tremendous skill. He notes Abdurakhimov has some trickiness but lacks durability and speed. Almeida should win easily, likely by submission.
Paul picks Jailton Almeida, noting his grappling and power. He says Almeida will take down and finish Abdurakhimov. He mentions Abdurakhimov's recent losses and poor takedown defense. He thinks Almeida is a future champion at 205 but is dominating heavyweights. He says Almeida inside the distance is a good bet.
The Guru is very confident in Almeida, calling him a 'roid monster' and noting his dominant grappling. He points out that Abdurakhimov is 41, inactive, and coming off a KO loss to Pavlovich. Almeida outgrappled a Dagestani on the contender series and has been competing in grappling tournaments. The Guru predicts a first-round submission by naked choke, calling it a walkover.
Zane picks Almeida confidently, noting his athleticism, wrestling, and grappling are far superior. Abdurakhimov is shop-worn, lacks durability, and is too passive. Almeida should get a takedown and dominate.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sergei Pavlovich | 0 | 17 of 34 | 50% | 17 of 34 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Shamil Abdurakhimov | 1 | 21 of 47 | 44% | 22 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sergei Pavlovich | 0 | 17 of 34 | 50% | 17 of 34 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Shamil Abdurakhimov | 1 | 21 of 47 | 44% | 22 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sergei Pavlovich | 17 of 34 | 50% | 4 of 16 | 4 of 5 | 9 of 13 | 17 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Shamil Abdurakhimov | 21 of 47 | 44% | 21 of 46 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 22 | 4 of 8 | 11 of 17 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sergei Pavlovich | 17 of 34 | 50% | 4 of 16 | 4 of 5 | 9 of 13 | 17 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Shamil Abdurakhimov | 21 of 47 | 44% | 21 of 46 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 22 | 4 of 8 | 11 of 17 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
The lone fight without a representative or fan-favorite from the region is an all-Russia battle that total 512 pounds of heavyweight in the cage, not counting referee Dan Movahedi. Abdurakhimov (20-6, 5-4 UFC) and Pavlovich (14-1, 2-1 UFC) will throw down in hopes of keeping their UFC records above .500, but only one will keep that positive record after this fight barring a draw or wacky result. The countrymen touch gloves while the crowd does not appear overly interested in this matchup, and the first strike comes from Abdurakhimov in the form of a light low kick. The pace is very slow early, with only a few leg kicks coming from “Abrek,” and the fans are letting them know. They both wing single punches and are well off the mark, and the tentative staring contest continues until they push out jabs at the same time. Pavlovich counters a leg kick with a straight right hand down the pipe, but it does not have much on it and Abdurakhimov pays it no mind. Abdurakhimov goes for a leg kick, and suddenly Pavlovich springs into action, letting loose with a salvo of punches that knock Abdurakhimov’s head around. Abdurakhimov gathers himself, circles away and dodges an overhand right, and appears no worse for wear. “Abrek” ducks in, and he meets an uppercut on the way in, while still managing to connect with a right hook. They trade jabs, and Pavlovich just misses with a swinging right. Abdurakhimov crashes forward for a takedown entry, and Pavlovich is a stone wall and he stops it in its tracks. Pavlovich measures his left hand out, only to get warned for outstretched fingers, and Abdurakhimov goes back to his slow rhythm of a leg kick every so often.
Out of nowhere, Pavlovich leans forward and rips a shovel uppercut out of the realm of “Mortal Kombat,” knocking Abdurakhimov clean off his feet. Abdurakhimov turns to his knees after hitting the ground, and he turtles up as Pavlovich tries to finish the job with hammerfists. Several blows land to the back of Abdurakhimov’s head, and Movahedi warns Abdurakhimov to keep moving, all while Pavlovich rains down hammers. As Abdurakhimov is about to get back up, Movahedi intervenes to stop the fight, leading “Abrek” to immediately protest what seems to be a premature stoppage.
There is nothing more he can complain about because the fight is over, and Pavlovich strides off to celebrate his victory in his first appearance since 2019.
The Official Result
Sergei Pavlovich def. Shamil Abdurakhimov R1 4:03 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo picks Sergei Pavlovich to win by knockout, assuming he is the same fighter as before his two-year layoff. He notes that Pavlovich has great power and speed, and trusts his chin. He thinks Abdurakhimov will look to wrestle but will struggle to keep Pavlovich down, leading to a knockout. He advises against betting due to the layoff.
Big Brady picks Sergei Pavlovich to win by first-round knockout. He notes Pavlovich is 11 years younger, has an eight-inch reach advantage, and the fight will stay standing. He believes Shamil Abdurakhimov has taken a lot of damage recently and is 40 years old with health issues. Brady expects Pavlovich to knock him out early.
Cody picks Pavlovich, citing his power and Abdurakhimov's age and decline. He thinks Pavlovich's layoff is a concern but believes his power will be too much. He notes Abdurakhimov has been knocked out by lesser fighters and Pavlovich should finish early.
Daniel Levi picks Sergei Pavlovich to win by knockout inside the distance. He notes Pavlovich's age advantage (29 vs 40), reach advantage (8 inches), and recent KO wins, while Abdurakhimov has taken brutal beatings in his last two fights. Levi acknowledges the inactivity concern for Pavlovich but believes if he's motivated, he will finish the older fighter. He also mentions that Abdurakhimov's durability has been questioned.
Pavlovich has power and speed, but his wins over Marcelo Golm and Maurice Greene aren't convincing. Abdurakhimov is disciplined and has decent knockout power, plus a grappling advantage if the fight goes long. Pavlovich in round one at -105 is the best bet, as he tends to finish early. If the fight stretches, Abdurakhimov could surprise. I'm picking Pavlovich via first-round KO, but I can't get behind the -300 line.
Paul picks Pavlovich, emphasizing his power and Abdurakhimov's lack of durability. He thinks the layoff is a red flag but believes Pavlovich's youth and training at Eagles MMA will help. He notes the price is high but expects a first-round KO.
The Guru picks Sergei Pavlovich, impressed by his physical attributes (84-inch reach, 6'2"). He notes Abdurakhimov has been KO'd multiple times and taken damage. He believes Pavlovich's power and speed will be too much, predicting a first-round KO. He compares Pavlovich favorably to Shamil and thinks he has real potential in the heavyweight division.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Daukaus | 0 | 23 of 63 | 36% | 23 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Shamil Abdurakhimov | 2 | 38 of 93 | 40% | 38 of 93 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:48 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chris Daukaus | 0 | 19 of 47 | 40% | 19 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Shamil Abdurakhimov | 1 | 28 of 65 | 43% | 28 of 65 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:37 | |
| 2 | Chris Daukaus | 0 | 4 of 16 | 25% | 4 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Shamil Abdurakhimov | 1 | 10 of 28 | 35% | 10 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Daukaus | 23 of 63 | 36% | 13 of 48 | 6 of 11 | 4 of 4 | 22 of 62 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Shamil Abdurakhimov | 38 of 93 | 40% | 34 of 88 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 18 of 58 | 2 of 5 | 18 of 30 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chris Daukaus | 19 of 47 | 40% | 9 of 32 | 6 of 11 | 4 of 4 | 18 of 46 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Shamil Abdurakhimov | 28 of 65 | 43% | 25 of 62 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 12 of 39 | 2 of 5 | 14 of 21 | |
| 2 | Chris Daukaus | 4 of 16 | 25% | 4 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Shamil Abdurakhimov | 10 of 28 | 35% | 9 of 26 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 9 |
Angelo picks Daukaus, citing his speed, technical boxing, and combination striking. He notes that Abdurakhimov has more power but is less clean and hasn't fought in two years. Angelo believes Daukaus will use his speed and angles to put Abdurakhimov away, though he acknowledges the unknown of Daukaus' takedown defense.
Big Brady picks Chris Daukaus to win by first-round knockout. He notes that Shamil Abdurakhimov is 40 years old, has a two-year layoff, and has health issues, while Daukaus has improved significantly and has power. He believes Daukaus will stuff takedowns and land a knockout.
Cody picks Daukaus, citing his speed advantage, youth, and recent improvements. He notes Abdurakhimov is 40, hasn't fought in two years, and was throttled by Blaydes. He expects Daukaus to finish him, possibly inside the distance.
Daniel Levi picks Chris Daukaus, citing his fast hands for a heavyweight and his black belt in jiu-jitsu. He notes that Daukaus has finished opponents quickly but has been finished himself when fights go past the first round. Levi is curious to see how Daukaus handles the second round but believes his speed and momentum will be enough against Shamil Abdurakhimov, who has been out for a while.
Jacob picks Daukaus, calling him a real deal heavyweight prospect. He notes that Abdurakhimov's wrestling is not effective and that Daukaus has a ton of first-round finishes. Jacob believes this is a setup win for Daukaus and expects a finish.
The host picks Chris Daukaus by first-round knockout. He believes Daukaus' striking is improving fight by fight and his speed and movement will keep Abdurakhimov at bay. He expects Daukaus to land crisp straight shots down the middle and eventually find the knockout blow. He notes that Abdurakhimov has the grappling advantage but Daukaus' striking is too good to fade.
Paul picks Daukaus, noting his speed, boxing advantage, and youth. He mentions Abdurakhimov's age, layoff, and recent loss. He expects Daukaus to win but is unsure about the over/under rounds.
The MMA Guru picks Chris Daukaus over Shamil Abdurakhimov, citing Daukaus' speed and power, and Abdurakhimov's two-year layoff and history of being knocked out. He notes that Daukaus showed good takedown defense against Alexei Oleinik and is a fast starter. He expects Abdurakhimov to be hesitant early due to ring rust, and Daukaus to land a counter blow and finish with a TKO in the first round.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Blaydes | 0 | 25 of 43 | 58% | 46 of 74 | 5 of 5 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 6:08 |
| Shamil Abdurakhimov | 0 | 3 of 8 | 37% | 3 of 8 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Curtis Blaydes | 0 | 12 of 24 | 50% | 25 of 43 | 4 of 4 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:02 |
| Shamil Abdurakhimov | 0 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Curtis Blaydes | 0 | 13 of 19 | 68% | 21 of 31 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:06 |
| Shamil Abdurakhimov | 0 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Blaydes | 25 of 43 | 58% | 23 of 41 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 23 of 33 |
| Shamil Abdurakhimov | 3 of 8 | 37% | 3 of 7 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Curtis Blaydes | 12 of 24 | 50% | 10 of 22 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 17 |
| Shamil Abdurakhimov | 1 of 5 | 20% | 1 of 4 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Curtis Blaydes | 13 of 19 | 68% | 13 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 16 |
| Shamil Abdurakhimov | 2 of 3 | 66% | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shamil Abdurakhimov | 0 | 28 of 70 | 40% | 28 of 70 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Marcin Tybura | 1 | 36 of 87 | 41% | 36 of 87 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shamil Abdurakhimov | 0 | 14 of 36 | 38% | 14 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Marcin Tybura | 0 | 19 of 53 | 35% | 19 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Shamil Abdurakhimov | 0 | 14 of 34 | 41% | 14 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Marcin Tybura | 1 | 17 of 34 | 50% | 17 of 34 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shamil Abdurakhimov | 28 of 70 | 40% | 17 of 58 | 6 of 7 | 5 of 5 | 26 of 65 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Marcin Tybura | 36 of 87 | 41% | 24 of 72 | 10 of 13 | 2 of 2 | 26 of 74 | 10 of 13 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shamil Abdurakhimov | 14 of 36 | 38% | 10 of 31 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 14 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Marcin Tybura | 19 of 53 | 35% | 11 of 43 | 6 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 14 of 47 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Shamil Abdurakhimov | 14 of 34 | 41% | 7 of 27 | 4 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 12 of 29 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Marcin Tybura | 17 of 34 | 50% | 13 of 29 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 27 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shamil Abdurakhimov | 0 | 18 of 58 | 31% | 27 of 71 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 0:19 |
| Andrei Arlovski | 0 | 32 of 70 | 45% | 67 of 108 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:25 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shamil Abdurakhimov | 0 | 9 of 22 | 40% | 11 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Andrei Arlovski | 0 | 5 of 16 | 31% | 25 of 38 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:00 | |
| 2 | Shamil Abdurakhimov | 0 | 5 of 17 | 29% | 9 of 22 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:19 |
| Andrei Arlovski | 0 | 16 of 23 | 69% | 30 of 38 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:25 | |
| 3 | Shamil Abdurakhimov | 0 | 4 of 19 | 21% | 7 of 22 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Andrei Arlovski | 0 | 11 of 31 | 35% | 12 of 32 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shamil Abdurakhimov | 18 of 58 | 31% | 8 of 45 | 6 of 9 | 4 of 4 | 9 of 39 | 6 of 13 | 3 of 6 |
| Andrei Arlovski | 32 of 70 | 45% | 19 of 50 | 9 of 16 | 4 of 4 | 12 of 41 | 6 of 11 | 14 of 18 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shamil Abdurakhimov | 9 of 22 | 40% | 3 of 16 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 11 | 3 of 7 | 2 of 4 |
| Andrei Arlovski | 5 of 16 | 31% | 3 of 13 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 6 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 6 | |
| 2 | Shamil Abdurakhimov | 5 of 17 | 29% | 2 of 13 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 11 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 2 |
| Andrei Arlovski | 16 of 23 | 69% | 12 of 17 | 3 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 7 | 2 of 4 | 12 of 12 | |
| 3 | Shamil Abdurakhimov | 4 of 19 | 21% | 3 of 16 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 17 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Andrei Arlovski | 11 of 31 | 35% | 4 of 20 | 4 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 9 of 28 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shamil Abdurakhimov | 0 | 5 of 13 | 38% | 5 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Chase Sherman | 1 | 6 of 10 | 60% | 6 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shamil Abdurakhimov | 0 | 5 of 13 | 38% | 5 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Chase Sherman | 1 | 6 of 10 | 60% | 6 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shamil Abdurakhimov | 5 of 13 | 38% | 4 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Chase Sherman | 6 of 10 | 60% | 5 of 8 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shamil Abdurakhimov | 5 of 13 | 38% | 4 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Chase Sherman | 6 of 10 | 60% | 5 of 8 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Lewis | 0 | 39 of 90 | 43% | 46 of 97 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:42 |
| Shamil Abdurakhimov | 0 | 15 of 37 | 40% | 77 of 106 | 4 of 11 | 36% | 1 | 0 | 7:30 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Derrick Lewis | 0 | 1 of 7 | 14% | 3 of 9 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Shamil Abdurakhimov | 0 | 4 of 11 | 36% | 23 of 31 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 1 | 0 | 2:37 | |
| 2 | Derrick Lewis | 0 | 7 of 14 | 50% | 9 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Shamil Abdurakhimov | 0 | 9 of 11 | 81% | 43 of 47 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:00 | |
| 3 | Derrick Lewis | 0 | 4 of 22 | 18% | 6 of 24 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
| Shamil Abdurakhimov | 0 | 1 of 8 | 12% | 8 of 19 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:18 | |
| 4 | Derrick Lewis | 0 | 27 of 47 | 57% | 28 of 48 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:10 |
| Shamil Abdurakhimov | 0 | 1 of 7 | 14% | 3 of 9 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:35 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Lewis | 39 of 90 | 43% | 32 of 81 | 5 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 46 | 4 of 7 | 27 of 37 |
| Shamil Abdurakhimov | 15 of 37 | 40% | 5 of 23 | 5 of 6 | 5 of 8 | 5 of 23 | 5 of 7 | 5 of 7 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Derrick Lewis | 1 of 7 | 14% | 0 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Shamil Abdurakhimov | 4 of 11 | 36% | 2 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 5 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 2 | |
| 2 | Derrick Lewis | 7 of 14 | 50% | 4 of 11 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 6 | 2 of 4 | 3 of 4 |
| Shamil Abdurakhimov | 9 of 11 | 81% | 2 of 4 | 5 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 5 | |
| 3 | Derrick Lewis | 4 of 22 | 18% | 3 of 20 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Shamil Abdurakhimov | 1 of 8 | 12% | 0 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Derrick Lewis | 27 of 47 | 57% | 25 of 45 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 12 | 2 of 2 | 24 of 33 |
| Shamil Abdurakhimov | 1 of 7 | 14% | 1 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Referee Dan Miragliotta is the third man in the cage for tonight's heavyweight main event. Lewis starts out in the center of the cage, slowly pressing outward toward Abdurakhimov, who cuts short angles around the perimeter. Abdurakhimov catches hold of Lewis' first kick and takes the "Black Beast" to the ground in the center of the cage. Straight to side control goes Abdurakhimov, leaning left to right across Lewis' body to frame up a keylock. Lewis rolls to his left, instantly relieving pressure on the arm and allowing him to stand up. Abdurakhimov stays with him, holding a rear waistlock until he's able to push Lewis against the fence. Lewis throws a knee, has the leg caught but keeps his balance and stays standing, while Abdurakhimov goes back to muscling him against the wall. Abdurakhimov gets double underhooks as they hit the midway point of round one, but Lewis pushes him away with a forearm to the face. With 90 seconds on the clock, Lewis initiates a clinch on the fence, but he's quickly spun around by Abdurakhimov. The big men split with one minute on the clock, but Abdurakhimov comes back for a late takedown and finishes the round in full mount.
Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round 10-9 Abdurakhimov
Chris Nelson scores the round 10-9 Abdurakhimov
Mike Sloan scores the round 10-9 Abdurakhimov
Round 2
Both men throw big right hands at the start of round two, and they wind up clinching with over-unders in the center of the cage. Lewis gives Abdurakhimov a shot to the body before the Russian presses him against the fence. Referee Miragliotta warns Abdurakhimov for grabbing the fence behind Lewis' back, and seconds later, Lewis nearly tosses Abdurakhimov to the side. The ref separates the fighters and brings them back to the center after a few seconds of ineffective clinching. Lewis slings a big right hand but it's deflected by the arms of Abdurakhimov as he steps inside to clinch again with three minutes left. Lewis breaks away, nearly slips to the ground throwing a high kick, now walks forward on Abdurakhimov once again. Lewis lands a body kick, but it's caught by Abdurakhimov and converted to another takedown. Abdurakhimov works from Lewis' wide open guard with 90 seconds on the clock, but there's not much happening on the ground, drawing boos from the Albany crowd. Lewis gets hold of a leg and drops back to try a heel hook; Abdurakhimov escapes and latches onto Lewis' left leg as he stands. Lewis hops backward to the fence, socking Abdurakhimov in the face with a few punches before ultimately being taken down again in the closing seconds.
Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round 10-9 Abdurakhimov
Chris Nelson scores the round 10-9 Abdurakhimov
Mike Sloan scores the round 10-9 Abdurakhimov
Round 3
Lewis steps in with a knee, caught by Abdurakhimov and turned into another takedown. This time, Lewis springs back to his feet and starts firing punches at Abdurakhimov, keeping the Russian on the outside through the first minute of the round. Abdurakhimov shoots an ugly shot, gets pushed away and clipped by an uppercut from Lewis, who steps back to reset in the center of the cage. Lewis is walking in slow, small steps, not expending a lot of energy as he follows Abdurakhimov around the perimeter. This time, it's Lewis who ducks inside, pushes Abdurakhimov to the fence and drops for a double-leg. Abdurakhimov easily blocks the takedown attempt and circles away. Abdurakhimov whiffs on a spinning backfist, dodges Lewis' counter right hand and goes low to drive "The Black Beast" back to the canvas. Under two minutes left in the round as Abdurakhimov works from Lewis' closed guard. After almost a minute of inactivity, referee Miragliotta stands up the fighters. Lewis plods forward slowly as boos rain down again; Abdurakhimov, who continues to back away, receives a verbal warning from the referee for failing to engage.
Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round 10-9 Lewis
Chris Nelson scores the round 10-10
Mike Sloan scores the round 10-9 Abdurakhimov
Round 4
Lewis tries to go upstairs with a left high kick, but his leg is grabbed by Abdurakhimov once again. The heavyweights tangle up on the fence for a few seconds, then Lewis snuffs out an Abdurakhimov double-leg shot. Abdurakhimov resets and then comes right back to hold Lewis on the wall. Almost immediately, referee Miragliotta tells the fighters to "get busy," and Abdurakhimov obliges by breaking off the clinch with an elbow strike. Halfway through the round, Lewis pulls down Abdurakhimov's head in the Thai clinch and partially lands with a knee. Lewis changes levels and scores a takedown at the fence, and suddenly it's Abdurakhimov on his back, covering up as Lewis postures up to land big right hands. Lewis goes knee-on-belly, then over to full mount; Abdurakhimov bucks and rolls underneath, trying to escape, but Lewis is relentless and smashes away with punches until the referee stops the fight.
The Official Result
Derrick Lewis def. Shamil Abdurakhimov via TKO (Punches) R4 3:42
Marcin Tybura - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcin Tybura | 0 | 47 of 110 | 42% | 85 of 153 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:41 |
| Tyrell Fortune | 0 | 30 of 59 | 50% | 49 of 81 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 5:07 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marcin Tybura | 0 | 8 of 22 | 36% | 13 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tyrell Fortune | 0 | 9 of 15 | 60% | 18 of 26 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:03 | |
| 2 | Marcin Tybura | 0 | 19 of 50 | 38% | 21 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tyrell Fortune | 0 | 13 of 26 | 50% | 13 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Marcin Tybura | 0 | 20 of 38 | 52% | 51 of 73 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:41 |
| Tyrell Fortune | 0 | 8 of 18 | 44% | 18 of 29 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 2:04 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcin Tybura | 47 of 110 | 42% | 22 of 77 | 20 of 27 | 5 of 6 | 36 of 96 | 11 of 14 | 0 of 0 |
| Tyrell Fortune | 30 of 59 | 50% | 24 of 53 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 43 | 6 of 6 | 6 of 10 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marcin Tybura | 8 of 22 | 36% | 5 of 16 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 17 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Tyrell Fortune | 9 of 15 | 60% | 8 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 9 | |
| 2 | Marcin Tybura | 19 of 50 | 38% | 8 of 35 | 7 of 11 | 4 of 4 | 17 of 47 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Tyrell Fortune | 13 of 26 | 50% | 11 of 24 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Marcin Tybura | 20 of 38 | 52% | 9 of 26 | 11 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 32 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Tyrell Fortune | 8 of 18 | 44% | 5 of 15 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 14 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 |
Angelo picks Tyrell Fortune because he believes Fortune's power and striking will be too much for the aging Marcin Tybura. He notes that if Tybura can get takedowns, he could grind out a win, but he doubts Tybura can avoid Fortune's power. Angelo suggests betting on Fortune inside the distance if hesitant on the moneyline, as Tybura is unlikely to finish Fortune.
Big Brady leans toward Marcin Tybura to win by second-round submission. He acknowledges it's a greasy heavyweight fight and sees paths for both. He favors Tybura's experience and submission grappling advantage on the ground. He notes Tybura is 40 with a questionable chin, but believes if Tybura gets on top, the fight ends quickly. He also mentions Fortune's power and early finishes but thinks Tybura's path is more reliable.
Cody picks Tybura, expecting him to survive Fortune's early explosiveness and take over as Fortune fades. He suggests live betting Tybura after the first round.
Connor also picks Tybura, agreeing that Fortune's grappling is bad and that Tybura's backtake game will be decisive. He notes that Fortune is not interested in fighting and that Tybura's decline is a concern but Fortune is not the type to exploit it.
Daniel thinks Fortune is catching Tybura at the right time, as Tybura is 40 and near retirement. He believes Fortune's motivation and well-rounded skills will earn him a UFC debut win.
The host believes Fortune's wrestling and grappling will be the difference, allowing him to control the fight on the ground. He notes Tybura's experience but thinks Fortune's strength and top pressure will grind out a decision. He expresses some concern about Fortune's submission defense after a heel hook loss but expects him to have shored that up.
Paul leans Tybura as a dog, citing Fortune's questionable cardio and heart. He's hesitant but sees value on Tybura at plus money.
The MMA Guru picks Marcin Tybura, despite acknowledging Tyrell Fortune's wrestling background. He believes Tybura's experience and durability will carry him to a decision win. He notes that Fortune has not faced high-level competition recently and that Tybura can grind out a win. He predicts a 29-28 decision.
Zane picks Tybura due to his grappling advantage, noting that Tybura is one of the few heavyweights with a backtake game, while Fortune has poor grappling instincts and gives up his back. He also mentions Fortune's lack of willingness to finish.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcin Tybura | 0 | 4 of 9 | 44% | 8 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:18 |
| Ante Delija | 1 | 13 of 28 | 46% | 15 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marcin Tybura | 0 | 4 of 9 | 44% | 8 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:18 |
| Ante Delija | 1 | 13 of 28 | 46% | 15 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcin Tybura | 4 of 9 | 44% | 1 of 5 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Ante Delija | 13 of 28 | 46% | 13 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marcin Tybura | 4 of 9 | 44% | 1 of 5 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Ante Delija | 13 of 28 | 46% | 13 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 |
Angelo reluctantly picks Marcin Tybura, citing his toughness, experience, and ability to grind out wins. He notes that the line has flipped with Delija now the favorite. He acknowledges Delija's power and takedowns but points out his age (35) and that he's from another organization, which the community often dismisses. He believes Tybura's durability and cagemanship will be key.
Big Brady picks Ante Delija, citing his speed and power on the feet. He notes Tybura's chin has been cracked and he is almost 40. He sees Delia winning by knockout if he can stuff takedowns, but acknowledges Tybura's path via grappling. He predicts a knockout win.
The host recalls their first meeting where Tybura won after Delija broke his leg. He thinks Delija can be successful in the UFC and will land more damaging shots, be more aggressive, mix in clinch and takedowns, eventually find a dominant position and get Tybura out of there via TKO.
The Guru picks Ante Delija, arguing that Tybura's 'fraud check' wins come against less experienced opponents, while Delija is a seasoned heavyweight with no clear holes. He notes Delija's training with Tom Aspinall and believes his athleticism and footwork will be too much. He predicts a TKO finish in round two or three, possibly from leg kicks and in-close shots.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcin Tybura | 0 | 61 of 155 | 39% | 64 of 158 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:01 |
| Mick Parkin | 0 | 60 of 145 | 41% | 102 of 192 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:43 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marcin Tybura | 0 | 21 of 56 | 37% | 21 of 56 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:19 |
| Mick Parkin | 0 | 23 of 45 | 51% | 24 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:19 | |
| 2 | Marcin Tybura | 0 | 7 of 20 | 35% | 10 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
| Mick Parkin | 0 | 15 of 38 | 39% | 41 of 69 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:24 | |
| 3 | Marcin Tybura | 0 | 33 of 79 | 41% | 33 of 79 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:25 |
| Mick Parkin | 0 | 22 of 62 | 35% | 37 of 77 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcin Tybura | 61 of 155 | 39% | 28 of 110 | 29 of 40 | 4 of 5 | 60 of 151 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Mick Parkin | 60 of 145 | 41% | 47 of 130 | 1 of 2 | 12 of 13 | 49 of 118 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 25 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marcin Tybura | 21 of 56 | 37% | 4 of 34 | 15 of 20 | 2 of 2 | 21 of 56 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Mick Parkin | 23 of 45 | 51% | 13 of 34 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 10 | 22 of 44 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Marcin Tybura | 7 of 20 | 35% | 4 of 15 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 19 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Mick Parkin | 15 of 38 | 39% | 15 of 38 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 25 | |
| 3 | Marcin Tybura | 33 of 79 | 41% | 20 of 61 | 11 of 15 | 2 of 3 | 32 of 76 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Mick Parkin | 22 of 62 | 35% | 19 of 58 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 22 of 62 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Mick Parkin, going against his bias for wrestlers. He notes Tybura's chin is fading after being wobbled in recent fights, but questions whether Parkin has one-punch knockout power. He thinks if Tybura can't get takedowns, he's in trouble, and Parkin's pace and control could be the difference. He admits it's a gut pick.
Brady is taking the underdog Tybura, questioning what a Mick Parkin win looks like. He notes Parkin's wins are against low-level competition and that he was outlanded by Kyle Machado. Brady thinks Tybura can win a close fight on the feet or dominate on top, and predicts a decision win.
The host notes that the UFC has brought Parkin along slowly, and now he faces a tough veteran. Parkin's athletic advantages in striking and grappling will be too much for the aging Tybura, leading to a late finish or decision win.
The Guru is confident in Mick Parkin, praising his conditioning, patience, and well-rounded game. He notes that Tybura has beaten many heavyweights who rush for a finish, but Parkin is patient and won't make that mistake. He expects Parkin to chop at the legs, stay composed, and win a 29-28 decision, as he has seen Parkin answer grappling questions that other Tybura opponents could not.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcin Tybura | 0 | 35 of 49 | 71% | 153 of 187 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 1 | 7:14 |
| Jhonata Diniz | 0 | 15 of 29 | 51% | 27 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:36 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marcin Tybura | 0 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 66 of 82 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 3:57 |
| Jhonata Diniz | 0 | 7 of 14 | 50% | 17 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:36 | |
| 2 | Marcin Tybura | 0 | 32 of 44 | 72% | 87 of 105 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:17 |
| Jhonata Diniz | 0 | 8 of 15 | 53% | 10 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcin Tybura | 35 of 49 | 71% | 33 of 46 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 26 of 30 |
| Jhonata Diniz | 15 of 29 | 51% | 13 of 27 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 10 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marcin Tybura | 3 of 5 | 60% | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
| Jhonata Diniz | 7 of 14 | 50% | 7 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 10 | |
| 2 | Marcin Tybura | 32 of 44 | 72% | 31 of 42 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 24 of 27 |
| Jhonata Diniz | 8 of 15 | 53% | 6 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Tybura (-148), Diniz (+124)
Round 1
With Derrick Lewis out for the time being, Tybura (25-9, 12-8 UFC) is now the man who stands across the Octagon from undefeated hammer-thrower Diniz (8-0, 2-0 UFC). The Brazilian came in a few weeks ago expecting to serve as the favorite against “The Black Beast,” but instead he finds himself in a pick-‘em with a well-rounded Polish heavyweight. The big men get after it as soon as referee Herb Dean says go, with a touch of gloves a formality that happens first. Tybura strikes first with a body kick, and he shells up to block two punches up top. Diniz lets fly a surprising head kick, and he blitzes forward and clips the Polish fighter with a short, mean left hand. Tybura falls to his back, and Diniz gladly leaps on top while moving to half guard hacking down with elbows. Tybura attempts a sweep, but Diniz blasts him in the face with hammerfists in an effort to stop it. Tybura steels himself and completes the reversal, dumping the undefeated fighter on his back and lowering himself down into half guard. Diniz clings to the man on top of him to prevent most offense from raining down on him, and the crowd does not appreciate the stalemate that follows. Tybura uses his full body weight to press down, staying chest-to-chest and getting off short strikes on either side. Tybura covers Diniz’ mouth when not smacking him with short strikes that are more irritating than damaging. Tybura grinds with an elbow on the chin, and he uses the awkward face covering to step over to full mount. Tybura keeps tightly pressed rather than posturing up, smothering the unbeaten man and making his life miserable. Tybura sits up to drive a few punches on the chin, and Diniz ties him up again to save himself. Tybura gets in a single heavy elbow, and he rides out the remainder of the round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Tybura
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Tybura
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Tybura
Round 2
Gloves are touched to start the round, and once more, Tybura aims a kick to the ribs. Diniz crowds him with a right hand, and Tybura backs off to reset. Tybura reaches out with a left hand that comes up short, and he pushes out a front kick that is also inaccurate. Diniz’ clubbing right hand bounces off the guard, and he narrowly evades a front kick aimed at his chin. Tybura keeps his distance with another front kick, and he dings Diniz with a straight left. Diniz bites down on his mouthpiece and slugs the Polish fighter in the jaw with a few heavy blows, and Tybura strikes back and slips away. Tybura splits the guard with a left, and Diniz wings back three punches that get his attention. Tybura drops down, ducking a punch and setting up a double-leg takedown. “Tybur” climbs into half guard, and Diniz claims that he is getting poked in the eye. Dean tells them to keep working, and Tybura does so with sporadic but effective ground-and-pound. With 1:50 remaining in the round, Tybura assumes full mount, and he starts fishing for an armlock by gripping Diniz’ right wrist and torqueing it. Tybura lets it go so he can set up a crucifix, and he beats down on the Brazilian with punches and elbows. Tybura pounds down with a pair of elbows, and he opens up with several more than rip Diniz’ face wide open. Blood sprays across the canvas in a display reminiscent of the infamous “you don’t know where I’ve been, Lou” scene, only it is the man on his back that is pouring red fluid everywhere. Tybura jackhammers the Brazilian with a massive flurry of elbows, and Diniz barely survives to the bell as cuts are all over his face with blood streaming everywhere. Diniz has to be helped back to his corner, and doctors are going to look closely at him.
Before the third round opens, physicians attend to Diniz and check his condition. He passes the vision test, and the cutman appears to have sealed most of the open wounds on him. However, Diniz is wobbly on his feet even after a minute to recover, and the doctor does not want any further damage inflicted on the Brazilian.
Diniz starts shouting that he is fine, able to continue and is not as hurt as he appears. The medical team thinks otherwise, informing Dean that Diniz’ condition is no bueno and that he should not be fighting anymore today. Dean accepts their advice and calls a halt to the match between rounds, giving a 5:00 finish by doctor stoppage to the Polish fighter.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Tybura
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-8 Tybura
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-8 Tybura
The Official Result
Marcin Tybura def. Jhonata Diniz R2 5:00 via TKO (Doctor Stoppage)
Angelo picks Marcin Tybura, emphasizing that Tybura is a durable grinder who can get fights to the ground, while Jhonata Diniz is useless off his back. He notes that Diniz has great striking but untested takedown defense, and Tybura will eat shots to get the takedown. He hopes Tybura is an underdog and plans to bet if so.
Big Brady leans with Marcin Tybura, believing that if Tybura gets the fight to the mat, he will dominate. He notes that Tybura often gets beat up on the feet before wrestling, but if he uses his fight IQ and takes Diniz down early, he can finish. He also mentions that Diniz is vulnerable on the ground, as seen in fights against Austin Lane and Karl Williams. Brady predicts a first-round knockout via ground and pound or submission.
Cody picks Marcin Tybura by submission, citing Tybura's grappling advantage and Diniz's poor takedown defense. He notes Tybura has taken down many heavyweights and has a black belt in BJJ. Cody expects Tybura to take Diniz down and submit him, possibly in the first round.
Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Tybura's wrestling will be too much for Diniz. He mentions that Diniz's game is busy in the pocket but that Tybura can tie him up and drag him down. Connor also notes that Tybura has been knocked out before but is durable and awkward.
Daniel Vreeland picks Jhonata Diniz as an underdog, believing he can survive Tybura's takedowns and win on the feet. He notes Diniz's youth, reach, and power, and thinks Tybura is declining. He acknowledges Tybura's ground game but expects Diniz to avoid or survive bad positions and land strikes. He mentions the odds movement as a factor.
Vreeland picks Tybura as his lock, stating he is 1000% sure Tybura will take down and ground-and-pound Diniz. He believes Tybura's wrestling and top control will be too much for Diniz, leading to a TKO finish.
Fox picks Oliveira as his lock instead of Tybura, saying he got even safer. He does not provide detailed reasoning for this pick in the transcript, but it is clear he is confident in Oliveira.
The host notes Tybura is a different opponent than Diniz was expecting (originally scheduled to face Derrick Lewis). He expects Tybura to showcase his full MMA game, staying away from Diniz's striking, getting the fight to the ground, and finding a submission opportunity.
Paul picks Marcin Tybura, citing his experience and grappling. He notes Diniz is a one-dimensional striker with poor grappling, and Tybura will take him down and control him. Paul expects Tybura to win by decision or submission, and is confident in the pick.
The MMA Guru picks Jhonata Diniz, noting his kickboxing background and KO power. He sees value in Diniz as a slight underdog. He believes Diniz's takedown defense will hold up and that he can KO Tybura early, possibly with a jab.
Zane picks Tybura, expecting him to take Diniz down and get his back. He notes that Tybura is one of the few backtake artists in the heavyweight division and that Diniz is not prepared for that grappling. Zane acknowledges that Tybura can get knocked out early, but he trusts Tybura's wrestling to prevail.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serghei Spivac | 0 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 9 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:43 |
| Marcin Tybura | 0 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 8 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:34 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Serghei Spivac | 0 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 9 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:43 |
| Marcin Tybura | 0 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 8 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:34 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serghei Spivac | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Marcin Tybura | 3 of 5 | 60% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Serghei Spivac | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Marcin Tybura | 3 of 5 | 60% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Marcin Tybura because he already won the first fight and has good takedown defense (only taken down once in six years). He notes that Spivac hasn't evolved much and had a sloppy fight against Oleinik. However, he cautions that Tybura is 38 and Spivac is 9 years younger, and heavyweights are unpredictable. He likely won't bet on this fight.
Cody agrees with Paul, favoring Tybura due to his cardio, striking, wrestling, and experience. He points out that Spivac's skill set hasn't evolved, his grappling isn't high-level, and he struggles when he can't take down opponents. Cody believes Tybura's ability to persevere and land better shots in later rounds gives him the edge.
Tybura is the better overall fighter with superior striking, cardio, and experience. He won the first fight and has only lost to top-tier heavyweights since. Spivac's improvements may not be enough to overcome Tybura's well-rounded game. The fight likely goes to the scorecards, making Tybura by decision a solid play at plus money.
Paul favors Tybura because he won the previous matchup and still holds advantages in striking, wrestling, cardio, and experience. He notes Spivac hasn't evolved much, has robotic striking, poor cardio, and relies on wrestling which Tybura can neutralize. Paul sees Tybura as a durable journeyman who can grind out a win in a five-round fight.
The MMA Guru picks Marcin Tybura, citing his win in their first fight and his improved takedown defense. He notes Tybura's cardio advantage in a five-round fight and his ability to win later rounds, as seen against Blaydes and Romanov. He criticizes Spivac's lack of improvement and finishing ability, pointing out that Spivac landed no significant strikes against Tom Aspinall.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcin Tybura | 0 | 15 of 24 | 62% | 18 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tai Tuivasa | 0 | 27 of 41 | 65% | 73 of 96 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 | 0 | 2:48 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marcin Tybura | 0 | 15 of 24 | 62% | 18 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tai Tuivasa | 0 | 27 of 41 | 65% | 73 of 96 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 | 0 | 2:48 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcin Tybura | 15 of 24 | 62% | 9 of 17 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 5 | 8 of 17 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Tai Tuivasa | 27 of 41 | 65% | 23 of 34 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 19 of 21 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marcin Tybura | 15 of 24 | 62% | 9 of 17 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 5 | 8 of 17 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Tai Tuivasa | 27 of 41 | 65% | 23 of 34 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 19 of 21 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Tuivasa (-122), Tybura (+105)
Round 1
Heavyweights put meat back on the menu for the marquee matchup. Likely having to cut down in weight to reach 266 pounds, Tuivasa (14-6, 8-6 UFC) is ready to let his heavy hands fly. Tybura (24-8, 11-7 UFC), who will be almost 20 pounds lighter officially—not counting whatever Tuivasa weight lost to get there—would prefer not to be on the receiving end of those fists. Although it is always possible that this could go 25 minutes, referee Herb Dean is ready for this to be done sooner than later. He brings them together, and they bump gloves before trying to take the other’s head off. Tuivasa sticks out a jab, and Tybura releases a body kick and a right hand in response. Tuivasa aims a body kick and connects with a few right hands, and Tybura closes in and gets clacked with several elbows on the forehead. The elbows slide Tybura’s head open on several places, causing blood to flow fast. Tybura looks to his hand to see the blood, and Tuivasa starts letting go with heavy leg kicks Tybura lumbers forward, walking through strikes to shoot in for a double. Tybura clasps his hands, and when Tuivasa punches him on the side of the head, he lifts the Aussie up and slams him down to the ground. “Tybur” lands in half guard and starts driving down right hands, and he lets Tuivasa turn to his knees so he can take the back. Tybura gets both hooks in and starts raining down right hands on the side of the head. As he continues to pound on “Bam Bam,” Tuivasa lowers himself down and does not seem otherwise worse for wear. Tuivasa turns to his side and tries to defend the sledgehammers with one hand. Tybura keeps heavy and allows Tuivasa to turn over so he can keep bludgeoning the Aussie. Tybura softens his man up before locking down a rear-naked choke, and he secures it under the chin. Tuivasa fights the grip and kicks with his legs to tough out the choke, and he tries to slowly slide his jaw down to escape choke danger. Tybura does not release the grip even when he hears Tuivasa gasping for air and clinging to consciousness, but he knows the finish is right around the corner. The Polish heavyweight retains his grip, and as he presses down with his full weight from behind, he puts Tuivasa all the way out. Tuivasa goes out on his shield, his arm flopping to the side, and Dean recognizes this immediately and halts the fight. This is a massive win for Tybura, even with Tuivasa skidding, as he lands the first submission in his UFC career, doing so under bright lights. With that technical submission—not the first of the night, making this card somewhat unusual—in the books, this show comes to a close. The Apex will play host again next week to another event before taking to the road, and we will be here for it. We hope you are too.
The Official Result
Marcin Tybura def. Tai Tuivasa R1 4:08 via Technical Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Angelo notes that Tuivasa's chin is gone after three consecutive knockout losses to elite heavyweights, and his takedown defense is only 54%. Tybura is a durable grinder who uses strikes to set up takedowns and will pound on opponents once on top. He thinks Tybura can rush Tuivasa against the cage and grind through takedowns. He is watching the line movement, hoping to get Tybura at +120 or +130 as the fan favorite gets action.
Big Brady picks Tai Tuivasa to win by first-round knockout. He believes Tuivasa's power and striking advantage will be too much for Tybura, who lacks power and has been knocked out before. He notes the risk if the fight goes long and Tybura gets on top, but expects Tuivasa to land first.
Cody leans toward Tai Tuivasa, citing his early explosiveness and power as likely too much for Tybura, who has been knocked out quickly in recent fights. He notes Tybura's wrestling threat but believes Tuivasa can stuff early takedowns and land a knockout before the fight gets deep. He acknowledges the line is even money and both have a chance, but Tuivasa's youth and power give him the edge.
Lucrative James is torn on this fight. He acknowledges that stylistically Tai Tuivasa could knock out Tybura, but he is concerned about Tuivasa's mental state, recent three-fight losing streak, and a knee injury three months prior. He also notes Tybura's reliability and grinding style, comparing it to the Blaydes fight. He ultimately decides he likely won't bet on this fight but might play Tuivasa KO in round 1 or 2 or Tybura by decision.
The host notes Tuivasa is on a losing streak and heavily reliant on knockout power, but when facing cleaner, crisper opponents he often comes up short. He expects Tybura to have a cleaner all-around game, roughing up Tuivasa in the clinch, dragging him to the floor, and possibly opening up a submission. He acknowledges Tuivasa's power but believes Tybura can avoid it due to Tuivasa's telegraphing. He compares Tybura's ability to take big shots from past opponents and still win, predicting Tybura dictates the fight and grinds out a decision or an arm triangle choke.
Paul also picks Tai Tuivasa by knockout, agreeing with Cody that Tybura's wrestling is not likely to be effective early when Tuivasa is fresh. He notes that Tybura will have to eat shots to close distance and that the small cage helps Tuivasa. He acknowledges the unpredictability of heavyweights but sees this as a decent matchup for Tuivasa to get back on track.
The Guru picks Tai Tuivasa by TKO in round one or two. He believes Tuivasa's calf kicks will be effective against Tybura, who lacks the low kick defense of Volkov. He notes Tuivasa's ability to get back up from takedowns and his power punching, especially uppercuts and hooks. He thinks Tybura is hittable and Tuivasa will find his chin, as he did against Ciryl Gane.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Aspinall | 1 | 13 of 18 | 72% | 13 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Marcin Tybura | 0 | 4 of 15 | 26% | 4 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tom Aspinall | 1 | 13 of 18 | 72% | 13 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Marcin Tybura | 0 | 4 of 15 | 26% | 4 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Aspinall | 13 of 18 | 72% | 12 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 8 |
| Marcin Tybura | 4 of 15 | 26% | 2 of 13 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tom Aspinall | 13 of 18 | 72% | 12 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 8 |
| Marcin Tybura | 4 of 15 | 26% | 2 of 13 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo is all-in on Tom Aspinall, believing he should dominate anywhere the fight goes. He acknowledges the knee injury concern but thinks Aspinall's speed, power, and BJJ are superior. He calls Aspinall the most confident pick on the card and suggests him as a parlay piece with Molly McCann.
Big Brady picks Tom Aspinall to win by first-round knockout. He calls it a setup fight for Aspinall after his injury. He notes Tybura has been knocked out by Derrick Lewis and others, and questions his chin. He thinks Aspinall's speed and power will be too much, and Tybura's only path is to take Aspinall down or outlast him, which he doubts. He mentions Tybura looked skinny at the face-off.
Cody acknowledges Aspinall is likely to win but sees value on Tybura at +380 due to Aspinall's knee injury and heavyweight volatility. He took a very small bet on Tybura, fully expecting to lose, but thinks the price is too high on Aspinall. He mentions that historically, plus money heavyweights have value.
Daniel picks Tom Aspinall to win, citing his speed, technical striking, and well-rounded game including takedowns and submissions. He notes that Aspinall represents the new wave of heavyweights and has a significant speed advantage over Tybura. However, he is concerned about the price at -475, calling it a 'sucker bet' and stating he lines Aspinall closer to -400. He also mentions the risk of freak injury given Aspinall's recent surgery. Despite the pick, he passes on betting due to poor value.
James picks Tom Aspinall to win by finish in round two. He acknowledges Aspinall's cardio is an unknown but notes that the only evidence of a cardio issue was the Arlovski fight where Aspinall seemed to have an adrenaline dump but still finished. He believes Aspinall is better than Tybura everywhere and that Tybura's only advantages are experience and potential cardio. James thinks Aspinall will be smarter this time and not steamroll in round one, but will get the finish in round two. He mentions that Tybura at +350 is the value side but he still favors Aspinall.
The host picks Tom Aspinall, citing his speed, power, and ability to finish. He notes Tybura has been hurt early in fights before but that Aspinall is a better finisher than those opponents. He predicts a first-round stoppage and suggests targeting under 1.5 rounds.
Paul picks Aspinall but notes the price is too high to bet straight. He suggests live betting Tybura after the first round if Aspinall gasses. He highlights Aspinall's speed, power, and BJJ, but also his cardio concerns and the knee injury. He would hedge if Aspinall is on a parlay.
The MMA Guru picks Tom Aspinall, calling it a logical pick. He criticizes Marcin Tybura's age and conditioning, and notes Tybura has no submission wins in the UFC. The Guru believes Aspinall has a massive advantage on the feet and on the ground, and predicts a finish in the first round, either by TKO or takedown. He also mentions Aspinall's year off and vengeance after surgery.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcin Tybura | 0 | 40 of 103 | 38% | 61 of 133 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:55 |
| Blagoy Ivanov | 0 | 34 of 113 | 30% | 34 of 113 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marcin Tybura | 0 | 22 of 45 | 48% | 22 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Blagoy Ivanov | 0 | 12 of 41 | 29% | 12 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Marcin Tybura | 0 | 17 of 57 | 29% | 17 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Blagoy Ivanov | 0 | 22 of 72 | 30% | 22 of 72 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Marcin Tybura | 0 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 22 of 31 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:55 |
| Blagoy Ivanov | 0 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcin Tybura | 40 of 103 | 38% | 12 of 70 | 19 of 24 | 9 of 9 | 39 of 102 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Blagoy Ivanov | 34 of 113 | 30% | 24 of 98 | 10 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 34 of 112 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marcin Tybura | 22 of 45 | 48% | 5 of 26 | 10 of 12 | 7 of 7 | 22 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Blagoy Ivanov | 12 of 41 | 29% | 8 of 35 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 40 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Marcin Tybura | 17 of 57 | 29% | 7 of 44 | 9 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 17 of 57 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Blagoy Ivanov | 22 of 72 | 30% | 16 of 63 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 22 of 72 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Marcin Tybura | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Blagoy Ivanov | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady calls this a messy fight and expects it to go to a greasy decision. He picks the underdog Ivanov because he is more durable and has never been finished, while Tybura has been finished multiple times. He is not confident and advises against betting.
Cody picks Ivanov at plus money, calling it a close heavyweight fight. He believes Ivanov has a slight edge in technical boxing and volume. He notes both fighters are low-volume and durable, expecting a decision. He took Ivanov at +130 and thinks the fight is essentially 50-50, so he takes the underdog.
Connor picks Marcin Tybura, expecting a split decision. He notes that Tybura is more proactive with kicks and combinations, and will likely be the one initiating clinch exchanges. However, he acknowledges Ivanov's durability and defensive wrestling, which could make the fight ugly. Connor is confident it will be a split decision but leans Tybura due to higher output.
Paul picks Tybura, arguing that Ivanov has looked slow and predictable in recent fights. He notes Ivanov's poor cardio and lack of takedown attempts, while Tybura has good cardio and mobility for a heavyweight. He expects Tybura to outwork Ivanov, especially in the later rounds. He also likes the under on Tybura 1.5 takedowns on PrizePicks.
Zane picks Marcin Tybura, agreeing that it will be a split decision. He notes that Tybura has better tools at range and is more likely to control the clinch. However, he warns that Ivanov's power and chin could cause an upset if Tybura gets hurt. Zane sees Tybura's improved composure as a key factor.
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