Roxanne Modafferi vs Antonina Shevchenko

Antonina Shevchenko

4-4

UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Oleinik · Apr 20, 2019 · Women's Flyweight · Completed

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Age 43

Height 5' 7"

Reach 69.0"

Weight 125 lbs.

Stance Orthodox

UFC SD

Age 41

Height 5' 8"

Reach 67.0"

Weight 125 lbs.

Stance Southpaw

UFC SD

Career Averages - Roxanne Modafferi

3.35 SLpM

30.0% Str. Acc.

5.7 SApM

51.0% Str. Def.

1.35 TD Avg

23.0% TD Acc.

30.0% TD Def.

0.1 Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Antonina Shevchenko

3.86 SLpM

55.0% Str. Acc.

2.93 SApM

52.0% Str. Def.

0.43 TD Avg

42.0% TD Acc.

53.0% TD Def.

0.4 Sub. Avg

Roxanne Modafferi - Fight History

LOSS vs Casey O'Neill

Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker 2 · Feb 12, 2022

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Casey O'Neill	0	120 of 358	33%	148 of 390	2 of 4	50%	0	0	1:06
Roxanne Modafferi	0	229 of 393	58%	230 of 395	0 of 2	0%	0	0	0:02

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Casey O'Neill	44 of 135	32%	44 of 135	0 of 0	---	0:00
1	Roxanne Modafferi	72 of 130	55%	72 of 130	0 of 0	---	0:00
2	Casey O'Neill	35 of 118	29%	40 of 123	1 of 1	100%	0:05
2	Roxanne Modafferi	86 of 142	60%	86 of 142	0 of 1	0%	0:00
3	Casey O'Neill	41 of 105	39%	64 of 132	1 of 3	33%	1:01
3	Roxanne Modafferi	71 of 121	58%	72 of 123	0 of 1	0%	0:02

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Casey O'Neill	120 of 358	33%	98 of 330	20 of 25	2 of 3	112 of 347	8 of 11	0 of 0
Roxanne Modafferi	229 of 393	58%	187 of 348	22 of 25	20 of 20	225 of 387	4 of 6	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Casey O'Neill	44 of 135	32%	40 of 129	3 of 4	1 of 2	44 of 135	0 of 0	0 of 0
1	Roxanne Modafferi	72 of 130	55%	55 of 111	7 of 9	10 of 10	72 of 130	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Casey O'Neill	35 of 118	29%	28 of 109	6 of 8	1 of 1	34 of 117	1 of 1	0 of 0
2	Roxanne Modafferi	86 of 142	60%	73 of 129	7 of 7	6 of 6	84 of 140	2 of 2	0 of 0
3	Casey O'Neill	41 of 105	39%	30 of 92	11 of 13	0 of 0	34 of 95	7 of 10	0 of 0
3	Roxanne Modafferi	71 of 121	58%	59 of 108	8 of 9	4 of 4	69 of 117	2 of 4	0 of 0

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2022 (6 days before fight)

Casey O'Neill

Angelo is very confident in O'Neill, calling her too good everywhere. He expects a dominant one-sided decision win, noting Modafferi's toughness but lack of athleticism. He mentions a parlay with Ronnie Lawrence and a potential prop bet on O'Neill by decision.

parlay with Ronnie Lawrence at -110, 2 units; Casey O'Neill by decision prop

"i see a dominant one-sided decision win for casey o'neill and my favorite parlay on this card is a casey o'neill and ronnie lawrence parley i already threw two units on that and i got it at -110"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)

Casey O'Neill

Big Brady acknowledges O'Neill's poor striking defense but believes she can take down Modafferi at will due to Modafferi's 25% takedown defense. He thinks O'Neill will control the fight on the ground and win a decision. He notes Modafferi is retiring and 39 years old, and while she is tough and has good BJJ defense, he doesn't see her winning. Brady picks O'Neill by decision.

O'Neill by decision

"i think o'neil can take down roxy whenever she wants... write out a decision here"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 9, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Casey O'Neill

Cody agrees, highlighting O'Neill's youth, improving skills, and physical strength. He notes Modafferi's takedown defense is poor and that O'Neill can dictate where the fight goes. He sees this as a passing of the torch.

"this is a passing of the torch so to speak"

Bookie Beatdown

Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Feb 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)

Casey O'Neill

Daniel Levi picks Casey O'Neill by decision. He acknowledges Modafferi's toughness and black belt in jiu-jitsu, but notes that O'Neill's pace and grappling pressure will be too much. Levi does not expect a finish because Modafferi has not been finished since 2013. He also mentions that Modafferi's retirement mindset may affect her performance.

"just give me casey o'neill will be a decision"

Half the Battle

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Feb 8, 2022 (4 days before fight)

Casey O'Neill

O'Neill is the younger, more explosive fighter, but Modafferi is durable and has good grappling. O'Neill has shown vulnerabilities in being taken down and controlled, which is Modafferi's strength. Modafferi hasn't been finished in over a decade. O'Neill should eventually get the TKO in the later rounds, but the odds are too wide. This is a no-play for betting.

O'Neill by TKO in round 2 or 3; no bet advised

"i'm still picking quest here i'm she's going to be my prediction but i would not advise getting trigger happy on parlaying her in every single spot"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 9, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Casey O'Neill

Paul thinks O'Neill's pressure and grappling will be too much for Modafferi. He notes Modafferi has been taken down frequently in recent fights and that O'Neill is strong and relentless. He expects a decision win for O'Neill, possibly a finish.

Casey O'Neill by decision

"i think she's a rifle favorite here with you"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)

Casey O'Neill

The MMA Guru picks Casey O'Neill by second-round ground-and-pound TKO. He criticizes Modafferi's striking and chin, and believes O'Neill's hunger and grappling will overwhelm the retiring veteran.

second round ground and pound tko

"i'm going to be going with casey o'neil here"

THE MMA GURU

LOSS vs Taila Santos

Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega · Sep 25, 2021

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Taila Santos	0	18 of 92	19%	43 of 124	0 of 4	0%	0	0	3:02
Roxanne Modafferi	1	55 of 95	57%	118 of 164	5 of 5	100%	0	0	8:03

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Taila Santos	0	6 of 24	25%	19 of 38	0 of 1	0%	1:17
1	Roxanne Modafferi	0	18 of 30	60%	35 of 50	2 of 2	100%	2:50
2	Taila Santos	0	4 of 12	33%	14 of 28	0 of 2	0%	1:30
2	Roxanne Modafferi	0	9 of 17	52%	34 of 43	2 of 2	100%	2:49
3	Taila Santos	0	8 of 56	14%	10 of 58	0 of 1	0%	0:15
3	Roxanne Modafferi	1	28 of 48	58%	49 of 71	1 of 1	100%	2:24

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Taila Santos	18 of 92	19%	13 of 85	2 of 3	3 of 4	16 of 90	2 of 2	0 of 0
Roxanne Modafferi	55 of 95	57%	38 of 75	8 of 11	9 of 9	40 of 72	8 of 9	7 of 14

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Taila Santos	6 of 24	25%	3 of 20	1 of 1	2 of 3	5 of 23	1 of 1	0 of 0
1	Roxanne Modafferi	18 of 30	60%	10 of 21	7 of 8	1 of 1	9 of 20	8 of 9	1 of 1
2	Taila Santos	4 of 12	33%	4 of 12	0 of 0	0 of 0	3 of 11	1 of 1	0 of 0
2	Roxanne Modafferi	9 of 17	52%	6 of 12	0 of 2	3 of 3	7 of 13	0 of 0	2 of 4
3	Taila Santos	8 of 56	14%	6 of 53	1 of 2	1 of 1	8 of 56	0 of 0	0 of 0
3	Roxanne Modafferi	28 of 48	58%	22 of 42	1 of 1	5 of 5	24 of 39	0 of 0	4 of 9

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2021 (4 days before fight)

Taila Santos

Angelo picks Santos, highlighting her athleticism, boxing, and fight IQ. He notes she can adjust game plans, as seen in her fight against Molly McCann where she took her down five times. Angelo believes Santos is better everywhere and will cruise to a decision, as Modafferi is tough to finish.

Angelo suggests Santos by decision prop. He also mentions the plus three and a half points bet for Modafferi and wins inside the distance decision no action for Modafferi at +200.

"Taylor Santos is the pick"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2021 (4 days before fight)

Taila Santos

Big Brady picks Taila Santos to win by dominant decision. He emphasizes that Santos is a completely different fighter from her debut, having dominated Molly McCann and Gillian Robertson. He sees Santos as younger, stronger, and better everywhere, with no clear path to victory for Modafferi. He warns against betting on Modafferi based on Santos' first fight.

"tawa santos is the real deal you know she's somebody to definitely look out for"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Sep 23, 2021 (2 days before fight)

Roxanne Modafferi

Cody leans towards Modafferi as a value play, noting her durability, grit, and history of cashing as an underdog. He acknowledges Santos' strength and crisp striking but questions her cardio and the wide price. He is hesitant due to Modafferi's age and torn meniscus.

"value is value and i think the value is squarely on roxanne at plus 310"

Bookie Beatdown

Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Sep 24, 2021 (1 day before fight)

Taila Santos

Daniel Levi picks Taila Santos but is hesitant due to her previous performance against Mara Borella where she refused to throw. He notes that Santos should win dominantly but is concerned about her tendency to freeze, especially with fans returning. He respects Roxanne Modafferi's toughness and ability to upset, but believes Santos is the superior fighter. He advises against betting the -400 line.

betting advice: not laying -400

"all that said give me the superior fighter give me tyler santos is just please don't pull a stun here like please perform to the best of your abilities and you'll win this fight period"

Half the Battle

Jacob Lines Expert Lean picked Sep 21, 2021 (4 days before fight)

Roxanne Modafferi

Jacob picks Modafferi by submission, following her pattern of alternating wins and losses. He feels this is a fight where Modafferi shouldn't win but will find a way. He notes Santos lacks killer instinct and thinks a weird scramble could lead to a submission.

Jacob says he'll take a small flyer on Modafferi by submission at +1200. He also mentions the plus three and a half points bet.

"I'm gonna put a wild weird bet on rockstein by submission"

We Want Picks

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2021 (fight day)

Taila Santos

The host picks Taila Santos to win via decision. He believes Santos is a much better striker with improving takedown defense and get-up ability. He expects Santos to pick Modafferi apart from distance and pass her takedown defense test. He notes Modafferi's durability but thinks Santos is on the ascent while Modafferi is on the decline.

Santos by decision at -130

"i am gonna go with tyler santos and i'll pick her to win this fight via decision hit that minus one thirty i like it"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Sep 23, 2021 (2 days before fight)

Paul does not have a clear pick. He finds Santos' price too high and is wary of Modafferi's injury and age. He considers Modafferi at plus money but is not confident. He will watch weigh-ins before deciding.

"i can't bet taylor at this price"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 19, 2021 (6 days before fight)

Taila Santos

The MMA Guru picks Taila Santos over Roxanne Modafferi, citing Modafferi's age and lack of improvement. He notes that Santos is young, well-rounded, and has a good ground game, which should prevent Modafferi from laying in half guard. He expects Santos to win a unanimous decision, as Modafferi is tough but not skilled enough. He mentions that Santos' win over Molly McCann looks better now, and that Modafferi has over 40 fights but still looks lost.

"i'm going to go with taylor santos here by unanimous decision over rocks and motor fairing"

THE MMA GURU

LOSS vs Viviane Araújo

Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–26) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Chiesa vs. Magny · Jan 20, 2021

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Viviane Araújo	0	46 of 184	25%	49 of 193	0 of 5	0%	0	0	0:39
Roxanne Modafferi	0	86 of 198	43%	100 of 214	4 of 4	100%	1	0	3:06

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Ctrl
1	Viviane Araújo	12 of 61	19%	12 of 63	0 of 1	0%	0	0:17
1	Roxanne Modafferi	34 of 77	44%	37 of 82	1 of 1	100%	1	0:27
2	Viviane Araújo	21 of 71	29%	23 of 73	0 of 2	0%	0	0:00
2	Roxanne Modafferi	32 of 73	43%	37 of 78	1 of 1	100%	0	0:54
3	Viviane Araújo	13 of 52	25%	14 of 57	0 of 2	0%	0	0:22
3	Roxanne Modafferi	20 of 48	41%	26 of 54	2 of 2	100%	0	1:45

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Viviane Araújo	46 of 184	25%	40 of 177	2 of 3	4 of 4	45 of 181	1 of 3	0 of 0
Roxanne Modafferi	86 of 198	43%	79 of 187	5 of 8	2 of 3	85 of 192	1 of 2	0 of 4

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Viviane Araújo	12 of 61	19%	10 of 59	1 of 1	1 of 1	12 of 60	0 of 1	0 of 0
1	Roxanne Modafferi	34 of 77	44%	30 of 69	3 of 6	1 of 2	34 of 77	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Viviane Araújo	21 of 71	29%	18 of 68	0 of 0	3 of 3	21 of 71	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Roxanne Modafferi	32 of 73	43%	30 of 71	1 of 1	1 of 1	32 of 71	0 of 1	0 of 1
3	Viviane Araújo	13 of 52	25%	12 of 50	1 of 2	0 of 0	12 of 50	1 of 2	0 of 0
3	Roxanne Modafferi	20 of 48	41%	19 of 47	1 of 1	0 of 0	19 of 44	1 of 1	0 of 3

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Viviane Araújo

Big Brady calls this a disaster matchup for Roxanne Modafferi. He praises Viviane Araújo's BJJ black belt and believes she is the better striker. He notes Modafferi's low takedown accuracy and Araújo's 92% takedown defense. He predicts a decision win for Araújo, saying Modafferi's path to victory is unlikely. He warns against betting on Modafferi based on past upsets, calling it chasing.

Araújo by decision

"i think this is an absolute disaster of a matchup for roxanne mona ferry"

DFS by the Numbers

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 19, 2021 (1 day before fight)

Viviane Araújo

The host believes Viviane Araújo's crisp striking and ability to avoid clinch positions will be key against Roxanne Modafferi's grappling. He notes Araújo's improvements in getting out of bad positions and her speed advantage. He predicts a decision win for Araújo, but also sees value in her winning inside the distance at +280.

Viviane Araújo inside the distance at +280

"i'll go with arujo i'll go by a decision but i do think plus 280 for her to win inside the distance is worth a little bit of a stab"

MMA Lock of the Night

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 13, 2021 (7 days before fight)

Viviane Araújo

The MMA Guru picks Viviane Araújo, expressing confusion over Modafferi's success. He criticizes Modafferi's skills and believes Araújo has better grappling and striking. He predicts a 30-27 decision win for Araújo.

unanimous decision 30-27

"i'm going to go with vivian arawajo getting the job done she's a little bit smaller i think she wins by decision 30 27"

THE MMA GURU

WIN vs Andrea Lee

Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. Hill · Sep 12, 2020

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Roxanne Modafferi	0	60 of 169	35%	129 of 267	4 of 7	57%	0	0	4:49
Andrea Lee	0	97 of 189	51%	118 of 210	3 of 4	75%	0	2	1:37

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Roxanne Modafferi	12 of 27	44%	54 of 80	1 of 2	50%	0	2:12
1	Andrea Lee	14 of 33	42%	21 of 40	1 of 2	50%	1	1:20
2	Roxanne Modafferi	29 of 83	34%	30 of 90	1 of 3	33%	0	0:28
2	Andrea Lee	55 of 94	58%	62 of 101	2 of 2	100%	0	0:13
3	Roxanne Modafferi	19 of 59	32%	45 of 97	2 of 2	100%	0	2:09
3	Andrea Lee	28 of 62	45%	35 of 69	0 of 0	---	1	0:04

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Roxanne Modafferi	60 of 169	35%	56 of 162	2 of 5	2 of 2	57 of 165	0 of 1	3 of 3
Andrea Lee	97 of 189	51%	50 of 128	23 of 36	24 of 25	89 of 178	5 of 8	3 of 3

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Roxanne Modafferi	12 of 27	44%	11 of 26	1 of 1	0 of 0	9 of 24	0 of 0	3 of 3
1	Andrea Lee	14 of 33	42%	3 of 20	5 of 6	6 of 7	10 of 28	2 of 3	2 of 2
2	Roxanne Modafferi	29 of 83	34%	28 of 81	0 of 1	1 of 1	29 of 82	0 of 1	0 of 0
2	Andrea Lee	55 of 94	58%	35 of 71	12 of 15	8 of 8	52 of 89	2 of 4	1 of 1
3	Roxanne Modafferi	19 of 59	32%	17 of 55	1 of 3	1 of 1	19 of 59	0 of 0	0 of 0
3	Andrea Lee	28 of 62	45%	12 of 37	6 of 15	10 of 10	27 of 61	1 of 1	0 of 0

Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Sep 10, 2020 (2 days before fight)

Andrea Lee

Big Brady picks Andrea Lee, stating she is better everywhere and more skilled. He notes that Modafferi's path to victory is takedowns, but Lee has decent ground game and get-up ability. He finds it sketchy due to women's MMA and Lee's 61% takedown defense, but expects Lee to win by decision.

"andrea lee should win this fight she's better everywhere she's way more skilled"

DFS by the Numbers

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 11, 2020 (1 day before fight)

Andrea Lee

The host is confident Lee's superior striking and movement will be too much for Modafferi, who is rudimentary on the feet and relies on takedowns. He notes Lee has good jiu-jitsu to defend submissions and expects her to win by decision or possibly a late TKO. He considers Lee one of his strongest leans on the card and worth the -310 price.

Lee by second round TKO; inside the distance prop if value

"I really like her in this spot um you know obviously totally worth the minus 300 this line that she's currently at"

MMA Lock of the Night

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 7, 2020 (5 days before fight)

Andrea Lee

The MMA Guru picks Andrea Lee, being very critical of Roxanne Modafferi's skills, calling her 'terrible' and saying she doesn't look like she trains MMA. He notes that Lee outstruck Lauren Murphy in her last fight and should have won, while Murphy clearly beat Modafferi. He expects Lee to stuff takedowns and out-strike Modafferi to a unanimous decision.

"i'm going to go with andrea lee getting the job done unanimous decision barely out striking roxanne motor fairy every round"

THE MMA GURU

LOSS vs Lauren Murphy

Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Blaydes vs. Volkov · Jun 20, 2020

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Lauren Murphy	0	44 of 174	25%	71 of 206	0 of 1	0%	0	1	4:08
Roxanne Modafferi	0	72 of 158	45%	92 of 178	2 of 3	66%	0	0	0:53

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Lauren Murphy	12 of 54	22%	18 of 60	0 of 0	---	0	1:14
1	Roxanne Modafferi	19 of 48	39%	22 of 51	0 of 0	---	0	0:00
2	Lauren Murphy	10 of 45	22%	20 of 58	0 of 1	0%	1	1:44
2	Roxanne Modafferi	23 of 48	47%	36 of 61	1 of 2	50%	0	0:35
3	Lauren Murphy	22 of 75	29%	33 of 88	0 of 0	---	0	1:10
3	Roxanne Modafferi	30 of 62	48%	34 of 66	1 of 1	100%	0	0:18

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Lauren Murphy	44 of 174	25%	34 of 152	5 of 15	5 of 7	39 of 163	5 of 11	0 of 0
Roxanne Modafferi	72 of 158	45%	46 of 127	8 of 12	18 of 19	65 of 150	3 of 3	4 of 5

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Lauren Murphy	12 of 54	22%	9 of 46	1 of 5	2 of 3	11 of 51	1 of 3	0 of 0
1	Roxanne Modafferi	19 of 48	39%	11 of 36	0 of 4	8 of 8	19 of 48	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Lauren Murphy	10 of 45	22%	8 of 37	2 of 7	0 of 1	9 of 41	1 of 4	0 of 0
2	Roxanne Modafferi	23 of 48	47%	13 of 37	5 of 5	5 of 6	18 of 42	3 of 3	2 of 3
3	Lauren Murphy	22 of 75	29%	17 of 69	2 of 3	3 of 3	19 of 71	3 of 4	0 of 0
3	Roxanne Modafferi	30 of 62	48%	22 of 54	3 of 3	5 of 5	28 of 60	0 of 0	2 of 2

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 17, 2020 (3 days before fight)

Lauren Murphy

Big Brady favors Lauren Murphy to win by decision, believing she can stuff Roxanne Modafferi's takedowns and out-strike her on the feet. He notes Murphy's strong takedown defense and ability to get back up if taken down. He acknowledges Modafferi's recent wins as an underdog but thinks Murphy is the better striker and will land more shots.

odds: Modafferi minus 120, Murphy plus 100; pick by decision

"I do favor Murphy to win here I think she's going to be able to stuff the takedowns of Roxanne"

DFS by the Numbers

Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 18, 2020 (2 days before fight)

Lauren Murphy

Daniel Levi picks Lauren Murphy, arguing that Modafferi is one-dimensional and relies on takedowns. He believes Murphy's improved aggression and takedown defense will be key. Levi notes that Murphy looked great against Andrea Lee and should be a slight favorite, not an underdog. He expects a close decision win for Murphy.

"My pick will be Lauren Murphy in this spot as well."

Half the Battle

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 14, 2020 (6 days before fight)

Roxanne Modafferi

Modafferi has better grappling and a reach advantage. She was winning against Barber before the injury. Murphy hasn't shown much. Modafferi will win by decision.

"I'm gonna go over rocks and mowed a ferry here the odds are really close and I don't understand why... motor ferry gets it done by decision"

THE MMA GURU

WIN vs Maycee Barber

Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–26) R3 5:00 · UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy · Jan 18, 2020

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Roxanne Modafferi	1	19 of 43	44%	112 of 155	1 of 1	100%	0	1	10:32
Maycee Barber	0	16 of 31	51%	25 of 45	0 of 0	---	1	3	2:17

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Roxanne Modafferi	0	11 of 22	50%	47 of 61	1 of 1	100%	0	0	3:45
1	Maycee Barber	0	5 of 14	35%	7 of 17	0 of 0	---	0	1	0:12
2	Roxanne Modafferi	1	5 of 10	50%	41 of 58	0 of 0	---	0	1	3:42
2	Maycee Barber	0	4 of 7	57%	6 of 12	0 of 0	---	0	1	1:07
3	Roxanne Modafferi	0	3 of 11	27%	24 of 36	0 of 0	---	0	0	3:05
3	Maycee Barber	0	7 of 10	70%	12 of 16	0 of 0	---	1	1	0:58

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Roxanne Modafferi	19 of 43	44%	17 of 41	2 of 2	0 of 0	11 of 31	1 of 1	7 of 11
Maycee Barber	16 of 31	51%	15 of 29	1 of 2	0 of 0	9 of 19	0 of 0	7 of 12

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Roxanne Modafferi	11 of 22	50%	9 of 20	2 of 2	0 of 0	7 of 18	1 of 1	3 of 3
1	Maycee Barber	5 of 14	35%	5 of 14	0 of 0	0 of 0	5 of 14	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Roxanne Modafferi	5 of 10	50%	5 of 10	0 of 0	0 of 0	1 of 3	0 of 0	4 of 7
2	Maycee Barber	4 of 7	57%	3 of 6	1 of 1	0 of 0	0 of 0	0 of 0	4 of 7
3	Roxanne Modafferi	3 of 11	27%	3 of 11	0 of 0	0 of 0	3 of 10	0 of 0	0 of 1
3	Maycee Barber	7 of 10	70%	7 of 9	0 of 1	0 of 0	4 of 5	0 of 0	3 of 5

Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2020 (2 days before fight)

Maycee Barber

Daniel picks Maycee Barber to knock out Roxanne Modafferi in the first round. He praises Barber's punching power and her work at Rufus with Duke and GM3. He notes that Modafferi, despite her recent win over Shevchenko, was dominated by Jennifer Maia and is past her prime.

first round knockout

"I think Maisie Barbara is gonna go out there and knock out rocks and modifier in the first round."

Half the Battle

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2020 (3 days before fight)

Maycee Barber

The host picks Maycee Barber to win but expects a tough fight, noting that Roxanne Modafferi will survive for at least 7.5 minutes. He plans to bet the over 1.5 rounds rather than Barber's moneyline, as he believes Barber wins but the fight goes over.

Over 1.5 rounds bet planned.

"I'm picking Maisie Barbara to win there but I believe the bet is gonna be the over in that fight"

MMA Lock of the Night

The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Jan 6, 2020 (12 days before fight)

Roxanne Modafferi

The host initially picks Maycee Barber but then switches to Roxanne Modafferi, reasoning that Modafferi is bigger and stronger and will hold Barber against the cage for three rounds. He notes that in female fights, holding against the cage often works, and predicts Barber loses by decision.

decision

"I'm gonna pick Roxanne mo de ferran I think she's gonna hold Maisie Barbara against a cage for free rounds she's the bigger girl she's a stronger girl she's the more experienced Gil"

THE MMA GURU

LOSS vs Jennifer Maia

Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: dos Anjos vs. Edwards · Jul 20, 2019

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Jennifer Maia	0	29 of 110	26%	76 of 161	0 of 9	0%	0	0	3:32
Roxanne Modafferi	0	83 of 174	47%	111 of 205	0 of 0	---	0	0	3:18

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Jennifer Maia	6 of 23	26%	20 of 40	0 of 4	0%	1:47
1	Roxanne Modafferi	13 of 35	37%	24 of 48	0 of 0	---	1:12
2	Jennifer Maia	14 of 36	38%	37 of 60	0 of 3	0%	1:10
2	Roxanne Modafferi	32 of 57	56%	36 of 61	0 of 0	---	1:07
3	Jennifer Maia	9 of 51	17%	19 of 61	0 of 2	0%	0:35
3	Roxanne Modafferi	38 of 82	46%	51 of 96	0 of 0	---	0:59

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Jennifer Maia	29 of 110	26%	25 of 100	1 of 5	3 of 5	28 of 109	1 of 1	0 of 0
Roxanne Modafferi	83 of 174	47%	72 of 158	9 of 14	2 of 2	65 of 150	17 of 20	1 of 4

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Jennifer Maia	6 of 23	26%	5 of 20	0 of 1	1 of 2	6 of 23	0 of 0	0 of 0
1	Roxanne Modafferi	13 of 35	37%	11 of 33	2 of 2	0 of 0	8 of 29	5 of 6	0 of 0
2	Jennifer Maia	14 of 36	38%	12 of 33	0 of 1	2 of 2	14 of 36	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Roxanne Modafferi	32 of 57	56%	29 of 54	3 of 3	0 of 0	22 of 47	10 of 10	0 of 0
3	Jennifer Maia	9 of 51	17%	8 of 47	1 of 3	0 of 1	8 of 50	1 of 1	0 of 0
3	Roxanne Modafferi	38 of 82	46%	32 of 71	4 of 9	2 of 2	35 of 74	2 of 4	1 of 4

WIN vs Antonina Shevchenko

Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Oleinik · Apr 20, 2019

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Roxanne Modafferi	0	33 of 79	41%	105 of 162	5 of 6	83%	0	2	9:00
Antonina Shevchenko	0	64 of 116	55%	87 of 144	0 of 0	---	0	2	0:50

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Roxanne Modafferi	11 of 40	27%	30 of 63	2 of 2	100%	0	1:59
1	Antonina Shevchenko	26 of 46	56%	28 of 48	0 of 0	---	0	0:00
2	Roxanne Modafferi	14 of 21	66%	44 of 56	1 of 2	50%	0	3:46
2	Antonina Shevchenko	17 of 34	50%	20 of 39	0 of 0	---	0	0:00
3	Roxanne Modafferi	8 of 18	44%	31 of 43	2 of 2	100%	2	3:15
3	Antonina Shevchenko	21 of 36	58%	39 of 57	0 of 0	---	2	0:50

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Roxanne Modafferi	33 of 79	41%	29 of 73	3 of 5	1 of 1	18 of 60	3 of 4	12 of 15
Antonina Shevchenko	64 of 116	55%	50 of 101	12 of 13	2 of 2	49 of 98	10 of 11	5 of 7

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Roxanne Modafferi	11 of 40	27%	8 of 36	2 of 3	1 of 1	9 of 36	2 of 3	0 of 1
1	Antonina Shevchenko	26 of 46	56%	23 of 43	1 of 1	2 of 2	25 of 45	1 of 1	0 of 0
2	Roxanne Modafferi	14 of 21	66%	14 of 20	0 of 1	0 of 0	7 of 14	1 of 1	6 of 6
2	Antonina Shevchenko	17 of 34	50%	15 of 32	2 of 2	0 of 0	11 of 26	3 of 3	3 of 5
3	Roxanne Modafferi	8 of 18	44%	7 of 17	1 of 1	0 of 0	2 of 10	0 of 0	6 of 8
3	Antonina Shevchenko	21 of 36	58%	12 of 26	9 of 10	0 of 0	13 of 27	6 of 7	2 of 2

View all 12 fights

Antonina Shevchenko - Fight History

WIN vs Cortney Casey

Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: dos Anjos vs. Fiziev · Jul 09, 2022

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Antonina Shevchenko	0	55 of 117	47%	81 of 158	0 of 1	0%	0	0	1:50
Cortney Casey	0	33 of 86	38%	80 of 146	2 of 5	40%	0	0	3:08

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Antonina Shevchenko	16 of 35	45%	30 of 55	0 of 0	---	1:34
1	Cortney Casey	12 of 20	60%	35 of 47	0 of 2	0%	0:00
2	Antonina Shevchenko	24 of 57	42%	24 of 57	0 of 0	---	0:00
2	Cortney Casey	9 of 37	24%	9 of 39	0 of 1	0%	0:14
3	Antonina Shevchenko	15 of 25	60%	27 of 46	0 of 1	0%	0:16
3	Cortney Casey	12 of 29	41%	36 of 60	2 of 2	100%	2:54

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Antonina Shevchenko	55 of 117	47%	26 of 73	15 of 26	14 of 18	54 of 115	1 of 2	0 of 0
Cortney Casey	33 of 86	38%	17 of 52	2 of 7	14 of 27	28 of 78	3 of 4	2 of 4

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Antonina Shevchenko	16 of 35	45%	6 of 21	5 of 8	5 of 6	16 of 35	0 of 0	0 of 0
1	Cortney Casey	12 of 20	60%	3 of 5	0 of 1	9 of 14	11 of 19	1 of 1	0 of 0
2	Antonina Shevchenko	24 of 57	42%	9 of 34	6 of 11	9 of 12	24 of 57	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Cortney Casey	9 of 37	24%	5 of 23	0 of 3	4 of 11	9 of 37	0 of 0	0 of 0
3	Antonina Shevchenko	15 of 25	60%	11 of 18	4 of 7	0 of 0	14 of 23	1 of 2	0 of 0
3	Cortney Casey	12 of 29	41%	9 of 24	2 of 3	1 of 2	8 of 22	2 of 3	2 of 4

Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jul 3, 2022 (6 days before fight)

Antonina Shevchenko

Angelo picks Antonina Shevchenko as the better striker, expecting the fight to stay on the feet since Cortney Casey has poor takedown offense (no takedowns in 4 years). He notes Antonina has clean technique but real gaps in grappling. He is not betting the moneyline but considers a plus 3.5 round bet on Casey because she is tough and could win one round.

Considering a plus 3.5 round bet on Cortney Casey (buying points).

"I need to go with the better striker and that is going to be antonina... I might do a plus three and a half on courtney."

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jul 5, 2022 (4 days before fight)

Antonina Shevchenko

Big Brady picks Antonina Shevchenko but with low confidence, noting that he typically looks to fade her. He explains that Cortney Casey's path to victory would be via takedowns, but she rarely uses her wrestling (only 0.26 takedowns per 15 minutes). Since he can't trust Casey to implement that game plan, he expects the fight to stay on the feet where Shevchenko is the better striker. He calls it a close fight and says he doesn't want to bet it.

"if i had to make a pick it's going to be antonina by decision"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Antonina Shevchenko

Cody thinks Shevchenko's striking is world-class and she has a slight wrestling advantage over Casey. He notes Casey is durable but has poor takedown defense. He expects Shevchenko to use her speed and technique to win a decision, possibly mixing in takedowns.

Mentions Shevchenko by decision as a prop.

"i think you're going to want to improve that price tag by taking the shepchenko by decision that makes sense"

Bookie Beatdown

MMA Lock of the Night Expert picked Jul 9, 2022 (fight day)

The host does not pick a winner for this fight. He only bets on the fight going to decision (over 2.5 rounds) at -180. He expects Shevchenko to outpoint Casey but notes that Casey could snatch a submission. He does not commit to a side on the moneyline.

2 units on fight goes to decision at -180. Parlay includes over 2.5 rounds.

"two units on the fight goes to decision for servchenko and Casey that's at minus 180. again a little bit chalky there again but I do think that this is one of those spots where they're just gonna outpoint one …"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Antonina Shevchenko

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Shevchenko. He notes that Casey's wrestling is non-existent and Shevchenko should have a grappling advantage. He thinks the price is reasonable for a women's MMA fight and expects Shevchenko to win.

"yeah i gotta go with that as well again women's mma so you don't want to be paying anything north of you know minus 200 but minus 165 not a terrible price tag"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 4, 2022 (5 days before fight)

Cortney Casey

The Guru picks Cortney Casey as an underdog, calling the fight a coin flip between two inconsistent fighters. He believes oddsmakers overvalue Shevchenko's surname and record. He trusts Casey's volume and grappling to edge out a decision, possibly mixing in takedowns.

underdog; decision win

"I've got to side with Courtney Casey as an underdog."

THE MMA GURU

LOSS vs Casey O'Neill

TKO (punches) R2 4:47 · UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Walker · Oct 02, 2021

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Casey O'Neill	0	40 of 63	63%	58 of 85	0 of 1	0%	0	0	1:12
Antonina Shevchenko	0	52 of 110	47%	128 of 209	3 of 8	37%	0	0	5:39

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Casey O'Neill	29 of 41	70%	38 of 51	0 of 1	0%	0:49
1	Antonina Shevchenko	9 of 33	27%	26 of 52	2 of 5	40%	2:19
2	Casey O'Neill	11 of 22	50%	20 of 34	0 of 0	---	0:23
2	Antonina Shevchenko	43 of 77	55%	102 of 157	1 of 3	33%	3:20

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Casey O'Neill	40 of 63	63%	32 of 55	8 of 8	0 of 0	24 of 45	8 of 8	8 of 10
Antonina Shevchenko	52 of 110	47%	46 of 101	4 of 7	2 of 2	13 of 55	2 of 3	37 of 52

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Casey O'Neill	29 of 41	70%	23 of 35	6 of 6	0 of 0	15 of 25	6 of 6	8 of 10
1	Antonina Shevchenko	9 of 33	27%	5 of 27	3 of 5	1 of 1	5 of 27	2 of 2	2 of 4
2	Casey O'Neill	11 of 22	50%	9 of 20	2 of 2	0 of 0	9 of 20	2 of 2	0 of 0
2	Antonina Shevchenko	43 of 77	55%	41 of 74	1 of 2	1 of 1	8 of 28	0 of 1	35 of 48

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 29, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Casey O'Neill

Angelo picks Casey O'Neill confidently, citing her clear path to victory via wrestling and pressure. He notes that O'Neill is a Muay Thai striker with solid wrestling and explosive athleticism, while Shevchenko has poor takedown defense (50% in UFC). Angelo expects O'Neill to win striking exchanges or fall back on takedowns, making her almost a guaranteed win. He considers a moneyline bet at -210 and may include her in DraftKings lineup at $9,000.

considering moneyline bet at -210

"i think she's almost a guaranteed win here so i may do a money line bet on her at minus 210"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Sep 30, 2021 (2 days before fight)

Casey O'Neill

Big Brady picks Casey O'Neill to win by decision, but is hesitant due to O'Neill's poor striking defense (38%) and being very hittable. He notes O'Neill will be at a massive disadvantage on the feet against Shevchenko, who has a significant striking advantage. However, Shevchenko has terrible takedown defense (50%) and was taken down multiple times by Andrea Lee, Caitlin Chookagian, and Roxanne Modafferi. Brady expects O'Neill to shoot takedowns early and control the fight on the ground to squeak out a decision. He has serious concerns about O'Neill's striking defense going forward.

O'Neill by decision

"i'll go with casey o'neil here to win i'll go for her to win by decision"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 29, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Casey O'Neill

Cody picks O'Neill, noting her youth and grappling advantage. He expects her to take Shevchenko down and control her on the ground. He mentions that Shevchenko has poor takedown defense and was submitted by Andrea Lee. He predicts O'Neill wins inside the distance, likely by submission.

Inside the distance at +140

"casey o'neill is the pick clearly um i think her game her game plan her style is just the kryptonite to everything that shivchenko really wants to do"

Bookie Beatdown

Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Oct 1, 2021 (1 day before fight)

Casey O'Neill

Daniel Levi picks Casey O'Neill but is nervous about the striking and clinch advantage of Antonina Shevchenko. He notes O'Neill's path to victory is via takedowns and ground control, where she has a brown belt and has shown improvement. However, Shevchenko has lost only to top-15 opponents and is tough to finish. Levi expects O'Neill to get taken down eventually and grind out a decision or submission, but he will be anxious while the fight is standing.

"i'm not lying when i say i'm going to be nervous for the entire duration this fight stays standing"

Half the Battle

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2021 (1 day before fight)

Antonina Shevchenko

I think Shevchenko is being undervalued. She has fought much better competition and has a clear striking advantage. O'Neill's grappling is overrated; she got reversed by Shannon Dobson and has been taken down by others. If Shevchenko can stuff takedowns, she will light O'Neill up. I bet Shevchenko moneyline and also Shevchenko by KO at +800.

Shevchenko by KO +800

"I bet chef check on the money line i also bet her caleb ko on plus 800"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 29, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Casey O'Neill

Paul also picks O'Neill, noting that she is a rising star with good grappling. He acknowledges that she lost the first round against Lara Procopio but rallied. He believes her wrestling and jiu-jitsu will be too much for Shevchenko, who is 36 and past her prime.

Inside the distance at +140

"i think shivchenko rolls here um it may take a couple rounds but i think she probably gets her out of there"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 27, 2021 (5 days before fight)

Casey O'Neill

The MMA Guru picks Casey O'Neill, citing Antonina Shevchenko's grappling problems. He notes that Shevchenko was submitted by Andrea Lee and controlled by Roxanne Modafferi. O'Neill has a reach advantage and good grappling, and he predicts she will take Shevchenko down and submit her with a rear-naked choke in the second or third round.

O'Neill by submission (rear-naked choke) in round 2 or 3

"i'm going casey o'neil here i think i'm going to go with casey o'neill by re-naked choke in the second round"

THE MMA GURU

LOSS vs Andrea Lee

Submission (triangle armbar) R2 4:52 · UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler · May 15, 2021

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Andrea Lee	0	45 of 62	72%	88 of 108	3 of 3	100%	3	0	2:11
Antonina Shevchenko	0	23 of 41	56%	36 of 54	0 of 0	---	0	0	3:58

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Ctrl
1	Andrea Lee	28 of 44	63%	43 of 61	1 of 1	100%	0	1:31
1	Antonina Shevchenko	22 of 39	56%	34 of 51	0 of 0	---	0	0:00
2	Andrea Lee	17 of 18	94%	45 of 47	2 of 2	100%	3	0:40
2	Antonina Shevchenko	1 of 2	50%	2 of 3	0 of 0	---	0	3:58

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Andrea Lee	45 of 62	72%	32 of 43	11 of 15	2 of 4	19 of 35	6 of 6	20 of 21
Antonina Shevchenko	23 of 41	56%	13 of 30	8 of 9	2 of 2	15 of 32	8 of 9	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Andrea Lee	28 of 44	63%	15 of 25	11 of 15	2 of 4	18 of 34	6 of 6	4 of 4
1	Antonina Shevchenko	22 of 39	56%	13 of 29	8 of 9	1 of 1	14 of 30	8 of 9	0 of 0
2	Andrea Lee	17 of 18	94%	17 of 18	0 of 0	0 of 0	1 of 1	0 of 0	16 of 17
2	Antonina Shevchenko	1 of 2	50%	0 of 1	0 of 0	1 of 1	1 of 2	0 of 0	0 of 0

Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 11, 2021 (4 days before fight)

Andrea Lee

Lee throws high volume (5.58 strikes/min) and has good striking defense. Shevchenko has poor takedown defense and has been taken down by strikers. Lee can mix in takedowns and control the fight. The line has shifted heavily towards Lee, and I think she wins a decision as a slight underdog.

"I'm gonna side with andrea lee here to get it done as a dog but i really don't think she's going to be a dog for soon here but i'll take andrew lee by decision"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 12, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Andrea Lee

Cody picks Lee, arguing that Shevchenko has no power and Lee's volume will be decisive. He notes that Lee's takedown defense is her weakness, but Shevchenko is not a wrestler. Cody believes Lee will win by decision, using her striking output.

Monkey Knife Fight: double over on significant strikes (59.5 for Lee, 35.5 for Shevchenko).

"i would agree with your assessment pretty much on all points and go with andrea lee here andrew lee by decision more specifically"

Bookie Beatdown

Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 13, 2021 (2 days before fight)

Antonina Shevchenko

Daniel Levi picks Antonina Shevchenko, citing Andrea Lee's cardio issues and decline since her breakup. He notes that Lee gasses out and becomes flat-footed, while Shevchenko is more disciplined and can clinch and knee. Levi thinks Shevchenko will dominate in the clinch and win a 30-27 decision. He also mentions Shevchenko's improved ground game.

"i'm going with antonina via 30-27"

Half the Battle

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked May 13, 2021 (2 days before fight)

Antonina Shevchenko

The host picks Shevchenko, giving her the slight advantage in striking. He notes she is the better technical striker and taller, which should help maintain distance. He acknowledges concerns about her grappling defense but thinks Lee is unlikely to implement a wrestling game plan. He predicts a decision win for Shevchenko but says he is not lock confident.

Shevchenko by decision

"i will go with chevchenko to win this fight by decision but by no means am i like lock the knight confident on it"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 12, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Andrea Lee

Paul picks Lee, noting that Shevchenko is not her sister and lacks power. He believes Lee's volume and takedown defense will be key, though he is not confident. Paul mentions that Lee has been losing due to takedowns, but Shevchenko is not a wrestler.

"i'll pick andrea lee i don't feel great about it though"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked May 9, 2021 (6 days before fight)

Antonina Shevchenko

The MMA Guru picks Antonina Shevchenko, but with low confidence, admitting he flipped a coin. He thinks Shevchenko is slightly more technical on the feet and benefits from training with her sister Valentina. He acknowledges Andrea Lee has a grappling advantage but predicts a split decision 29-28 for Shevchenko.

"i'm going with antonina chefchenko"

THE MMA GURU

WIN vs Ariane da Silva

TKO (punches) R2 4:33 · UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez · Nov 21, 2020

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Antonina Shevchenko	0	39 of 57	68%	94 of 128	1 of 3	33%	0	0	7:39
Ariane da Silva	0	15 of 26	57%	25 of 36	0 of 3	0%	0	0	0:28

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Antonina Shevchenko	10 of 12	83%	37 of 52	1 of 2	50%	3:48
1	Ariane da Silva	10 of 14	71%	20 of 24	0 of 2	0%	0:28
2	Antonina Shevchenko	29 of 45	64%	57 of 76	0 of 1	0%	3:51
2	Ariane da Silva	5 of 12	41%	5 of 12	0 of 1	0%	0:00

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Antonina Shevchenko	39 of 57	68%	32 of 50	4 of 4	3 of 3	8 of 12	5 of 6	26 of 39
Ariane da Silva	15 of 26	57%	7 of 15	5 of 6	3 of 5	13 of 24	2 of 2	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Antonina Shevchenko	10 of 12	83%	4 of 6	4 of 4	2 of 2	5 of 6	5 of 6	0 of 0
1	Ariane da Silva	10 of 14	71%	4 of 7	4 of 4	2 of 3	8 of 12	2 of 2	0 of 0
2	Antonina Shevchenko	29 of 45	64%	28 of 44	0 of 0	1 of 1	3 of 6	0 of 0	26 of 39
2	Ariane da Silva	5 of 12	41%	3 of 8	1 of 2	1 of 2	5 of 12	0 of 0	0 of 0

Big Brady Expert Lean picked Nov 18, 2020 (3 days before fight)

Antonina Shevchenko

Big Brady leans Antonina Shevchenko to win by decision. He thinks Shevchenko has a big advantage on the feet, but is concerned about her takedown defense after being dominated by Chookagian. He notes Lipski could win with a wrestling-heavy game plan, but Shevchenko is the pick if it stays standing.

would not bet this fight

"i'm going to take chefchenko i think it could play out close as a lot of women's fights do"

DFS by the Numbers

Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 19, 2020 (2 days before fight)

Ariane da Silva

Daniel picks Lipski as an underdog, citing Antonina's poor takedown defense and one-dimensional striking. He believes Lipski has paid her dues and can exploit Antonina's ground game. He notes Lipski's recent submission win shows improvement and that the fight should be a pick'em.

"i am actually gonna pick uh my girl queen of violent slipski to come in here and get this upset"

Half the Battle

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 17, 2020 (4 days before fight)

Antonina Shevchenko

The host picks Antonina Shevchenko to win by decision. He believes she is cleaner on the feet and has a size advantage, and that Lipski will be outgunned on the feet and unable to have success on the ground. He notes the line is fair but not compelling to bet.

"I do like Chef Cho again I think she's cleaner on the feet uh she might have the Jiu-Jitsu Advantage as well"

MMA Lock of the Night

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 15, 2020 (6 days before fight)

Antonina Shevchenko

The MMA Guru picks Antonina Shevchenko to win by unanimous decision (30-27). He believes Shevchenko's losses are to better competition (Chookagian, Modafferi) and that Lipski doesn't shoot enough takedowns to pose a threat. He expects Shevchenko to outland Lipski on the feet and win every round.

"i'm definitely going to be going with antonina chefchenko to get the job done over ariana lipsky by unanimous decision"

THE MMA GURU

LOSS vs Katlyn Cerminara

Decision (unanimous) (30–25, 30–25, 30–25) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Woodley vs. Burns · May 30, 2020

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Katlyn Cerminara	0	73 of 108	67%	200 of 240	3 of 3	100%	4	0	10:36
Antonina Shevchenko	0	25 of 64	39%	37 of 76	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Ctrl
1	Katlyn Cerminara	20 of 24	83%	70 of 77	1 of 1	100%	4	4:27
1	Antonina Shevchenko	3 of 4	75%	4 of 5	0 of 0	---	0	0:00
2	Katlyn Cerminara	18 of 21	85%	83 of 86	1 of 1	100%	0	4:53
2	Antonina Shevchenko	5 of 6	83%	14 of 15	0 of 0	---	0	0:00
3	Katlyn Cerminara	35 of 63	55%	47 of 77	1 of 1	100%	0	1:16
3	Antonina Shevchenko	17 of 54	31%	19 of 56	0 of 0	---	0	0:00

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Katlyn Cerminara	73 of 108	67%	55 of 81	12 of 18	6 of 9	22 of 49	4 of 4	47 of 55
Antonina Shevchenko	25 of 64	39%	14 of 50	6 of 9	5 of 5	21 of 59	4 of 5	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Katlyn Cerminara	20 of 24	83%	17 of 20	1 of 1	2 of 3	2 of 4	2 of 2	16 of 18
1	Antonina Shevchenko	3 of 4	75%	0 of 1	1 of 1	2 of 2	3 of 4	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Katlyn Cerminara	18 of 21	85%	16 of 18	2 of 3	0 of 0	0 of 2	0 of 0	18 of 19
2	Antonina Shevchenko	5 of 6	83%	3 of 3	2 of 3	0 of 0	3 of 3	2 of 3	0 of 0
3	Katlyn Cerminara	35 of 63	55%	22 of 43	9 of 14	4 of 6	20 of 43	2 of 2	13 of 18
3	Antonina Shevchenko	17 of 54	31%	11 of 46	3 of 5	3 of 3	15 of 52	2 of 2	0 of 0

Big Brady Expert Lean picked May 27, 2020 (3 days before fight)

Antonina Shevchenko

Big Brady picks Antonina Shevchenko to win a very close decision. He initially thought Cerminara should be the favorite due to her recent title fight, but after watching tape, he switched to Shevchenko. He believes Shevchenko is the better striker and will land the harder, more convincing shots. He notes that Cerminara has a path to victory if she uses wrestling, but she hasn't done that in the UFC. He expects a split decision and advises not to bet on this fight.

Not touching from a betting perspective

"I'm gonna go with Shevchenko I think she's a better striker I think she's going to land the harder shots as well the more convincing shots"

DFS by the Numbers

Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked May 29, 2020 (1 day before fight)

Antonina Shevchenko

Daniel edges Antonina, citing her intel from training with her sister Valentina and her ability to control range with knees from the clinch. He notes that Chookagian has zero takedowns in the UFC and that the smaller cage will limit her movement. He expects a split decision.

"i'm gonna agree with you that's gonna be a split decision but i'm gonna edge antonina on this one"

Half the Battle

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 23, 2020 (7 days before fight)

Katlyn Cerminara

The MMA Guru picks Katlyn Cerminara to win by unanimous decision. He notes that Antonina Shevchenko hasn't beaten great opposition and lost to Roxanne Modafferi. He believes Cerminara is longer, rangier, and will have a fire lit under her after losing to Valentina Shevchenko. He also mentions the narrative of beating her sister to get a title rematch.

Cerminara by decision

"Caitlin shook a key in here she's longer she's rain jeah I think she's gonna get a job done against Antonina Shevchenko"

THE MMA GURU

WIN vs Lucie Pudilová

Technical Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 1:20 · UFC on ESPN: Covington vs. Lawler · Aug 03, 2019

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Antonina Shevchenko	0	16 of 23	69%	36 of 44	0 of 0	---	3	0	1:54
Lucie Pudilová	0	6 of 16	37%	12 of 24	1 of 5	20%	0	0	2:19

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Ctrl
1	Antonina Shevchenko	16 of 21	76%	34 of 39	0 of 0	---	2	1:37
1	Lucie Pudilová	6 of 11	54%	11 of 18	1 of 3	33%	0	1:40
2	Antonina Shevchenko	0 of 2	0%	2 of 5	0 of 0	---	1	0:17
2	Lucie Pudilová	0 of 5	0%	1 of 6	0 of 2	0%	0	0:39

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Antonina Shevchenko	16 of 23	69%	3 of 6	9 of 13	4 of 4	1 of 3	15 of 20	0 of 0
Lucie Pudilová	6 of 16	37%	3 of 12	3 of 4	0 of 0	0 of 8	5 of 7	1 of 1

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Antonina Shevchenko	16 of 21	76%	3 of 4	9 of 13	4 of 4	1 of 1	15 of 20	0 of 0
1	Lucie Pudilová	6 of 11	54%	3 of 7	3 of 4	0 of 0	0 of 3	5 of 7	1 of 1
2	Antonina Shevchenko	0 of 2	0%	0 of 2	0 of 0	0 of 0	0 of 2	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Lucie Pudilová	0 of 5	0%	0 of 5	0 of 0	0 of 0	0 of 5	0 of 0	0 of 0

LOSS vs Roxanne Modafferi

Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Oleinik · Apr 20, 2019

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Roxanne Modafferi	0	33 of 79	41%	105 of 162	5 of 6	83%	0	2	9:00
Antonina Shevchenko	0	64 of 116	55%	87 of 144	0 of 0	---	0	2	0:50

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Roxanne Modafferi	11 of 40	27%	30 of 63	2 of 2	100%	0	1:59
1	Antonina Shevchenko	26 of 46	56%	28 of 48	0 of 0	---	0	0:00
2	Roxanne Modafferi	14 of 21	66%	44 of 56	1 of 2	50%	0	3:46
2	Antonina Shevchenko	17 of 34	50%	20 of 39	0 of 0	---	0	0:00
3	Roxanne Modafferi	8 of 18	44%	31 of 43	2 of 2	100%	2	3:15
3	Antonina Shevchenko	21 of 36	58%	39 of 57	0 of 0	---	2	0:50

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Roxanne Modafferi	33 of 79	41%	29 of 73	3 of 5	1 of 1	18 of 60	3 of 4	12 of 15
Antonina Shevchenko	64 of 116	55%	50 of 101	12 of 13	2 of 2	49 of 98	10 of 11	5 of 7

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Roxanne Modafferi	11 of 40	27%	8 of 36	2 of 3	1 of 1	9 of 36	2 of 3	0 of 1
1	Antonina Shevchenko	26 of 46	56%	23 of 43	1 of 1	2 of 2	25 of 45	1 of 1	0 of 0
2	Roxanne Modafferi	14 of 21	66%	14 of 20	0 of 1	0 of 0	7 of 14	1 of 1	6 of 6
2	Antonina Shevchenko	17 of 34	50%	15 of 32	2 of 2	0 of 0	11 of 26	3 of 3	3 of 5
3	Roxanne Modafferi	8 of 18	44%	7 of 17	1 of 1	0 of 0	2 of 10	0 of 0	6 of 8
3	Antonina Shevchenko	21 of 36	58%	12 of 26	9 of 10	0 of 0	13 of 27	6 of 7	2 of 2

WIN vs Ji Yeon Kim

Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · The Ultimate Fighter: Heavy Hitters Finale · Nov 30, 2018

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Antonina Shevchenko	0	33 of 128	25%	85 of 188	0 of 0	---	0	0	1:37
Ji Yeon Kim	0	66 of 134	49%	87 of 167	2 of 2	100%	0	0	4:56

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Antonina Shevchenko	9 of 50	18%	16 of 59	0 of 0	---	0:32
1	Ji Yeon Kim	15 of 35	42%	19 of 42	1 of 1	100%	1:12
2	Antonina Shevchenko	12 of 46	26%	30 of 66	0 of 0	---	0:44
2	Ji Yeon Kim	24 of 53	45%	29 of 59	0 of 0	---	1:02
3	Antonina Shevchenko	12 of 32	37%	39 of 63	0 of 0	---	0:21
3	Ji Yeon Kim	27 of 46	58%	39 of 66	1 of 1	100%	2:42

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Antonina Shevchenko	33 of 128	25%	18 of 113	5 of 5	10 of 10	26 of 116	7 of 12	0 of 0
Ji Yeon Kim	66 of 134	49%	41 of 101	18 of 26	7 of 7	46 of 106	14 of 19	6 of 9

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Antonina Shevchenko	9 of 50	18%	3 of 44	2 of 2	4 of 4	6 of 47	3 of 3	0 of 0
1	Ji Yeon Kim	15 of 35	42%	10 of 30	4 of 4	1 of 1	13 of 33	2 of 2	0 of 0
2	Antonina Shevchenko	12 of 46	26%	8 of 42	2 of 2	2 of 2	10 of 44	2 of 2	0 of 0
2	Ji Yeon Kim	24 of 53	45%	16 of 41	6 of 10	2 of 2	19 of 45	5 of 8	0 of 0
3	Antonina Shevchenko	12 of 32	37%	7 of 27	1 of 1	4 of 4	10 of 25	2 of 7	0 of 0
3	Ji Yeon Kim	27 of 46	58%	15 of 30	8 of 12	4 of 4	14 of 28	7 of 9	6 of 9