Career Averages - Anthony Hernandez
Career Averages - Josh Fremd
Anthony Hernandez
Josh Fremd
Anthony Hernandez - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Strickland | 1 | 110 of 241 | 45% | 111 of 242 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:18 |
| Anthony Hernandez | 0 | 55 of 122 | 45% | 57 of 124 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:32 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sean Strickland | 0 | 32 of 90 | 35% | 33 of 91 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Anthony Hernandez | 0 | 23 of 48 | 47% | 23 of 48 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:20 | |
| 2 | Sean Strickland | 0 | 37 of 79 | 46% | 37 of 79 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
| Anthony Hernandez | 0 | 23 of 47 | 48% | 23 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 | |
| 3 | Sean Strickland | 1 | 41 of 72 | 56% | 41 of 72 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Anthony Hernandez | 0 | 9 of 27 | 33% | 11 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Strickland | 110 of 241 | 45% | 93 of 219 | 9 of 14 | 8 of 8 | 101 of 230 | 2 of 3 | 7 of 8 |
| Anthony Hernandez | 55 of 122 | 45% | 29 of 93 | 13 of 16 | 13 of 13 | 55 of 120 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sean Strickland | 32 of 90 | 35% | 24 of 80 | 3 of 5 | 5 of 5 | 32 of 90 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Anthony Hernandez | 23 of 48 | 47% | 12 of 37 | 5 of 5 | 6 of 6 | 23 of 48 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Sean Strickland | 37 of 79 | 46% | 30 of 69 | 4 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 37 of 79 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Anthony Hernandez | 23 of 47 | 48% | 12 of 36 | 6 of 6 | 5 of 5 | 23 of 47 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Sean Strickland | 41 of 72 | 56% | 39 of 70 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 32 of 61 | 2 of 3 | 7 of 8 |
| Anthony Hernandez | 9 of 27 | 33% | 5 of 20 | 2 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 25 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Herb Dean is the referee. Strickland lands an inside leg kick followed by a jab. A 1-2 from Strickland keeps Hernandez at bay. Hernandez lands a hard calf kick. Strickland, as expected, is using his jab liberally. Hernandez jabs the body. Inside leg kick lands for Hernandez and he jabs the body Strickland continues to pump his jab in Hernandez’s mug. Hernandez just misses a right hand. Hernandez looks to get inside and Strickland lands a short uppercut. Strickland follows a front kick with a jab. Strickland tags Hernadnez with a combination and “Fluffy” grins at him. Hernandez follows a combination by clinching with Strickland, but the former champ is able to circle out and extract himself. Multiple jabs land for Strickland. Hernandez fires back and Strickland appears to slip as he circles away. A solid right lands for Hernandez and Stirckland angels out. Strickland keeps firing his lead hand to keep Hernandez at a safe distance, but “Fluffy” is having his moments to land, as well. Hernandez follows an inside leg kick with a late flurry before the horn.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Round 2
Strickland with an inside low kick. They both trade low kicks. Hernandez fakes a takedown and then follows with an overhand right. Strickland lands a straight right. Hernandez pressures but Strickland is able to angle out of dnager. Hernandez counters a front kick with a right. More jabs and then a rigth hand connect for Strickland. A solid leg kick connects for “Fluffy.” Strickland’s patented jab and front kick both find the range. They briefly trade in close quarters, with Hernandez finding the rage on an uppercut. Hernandez pressures and Strickland pumps out his jab. Hernandez lands a jab of his own, but he’s still struggling to get into takedown range. Hernandez jabs the body. Strickland lands a 1-2. Hernandez answers with a couple shots to the body. They clinch and Strickland pushes Hernandez into the fence. They separate in short order with 40 seconds to go. Hernandez gets inside and forces the clinch, but Strickland lands an elbow as they separate. Strickland lands a nice combination late in the round.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Round 3
Hernandez follows a combination with a head kick early to provide a different look. Strickland doubles up on his jab. Hernandez is trying to put pressure on his opponent, but Strickland always seems to have an anwer with volume and intelligent movement. Hernandez forces the clinch, but Strickland lands an elbow on the break. Moments later, Strickland seems to have hurt Hernandez with a knee to the body. Hernandez is on the retreat as he tries to recover.
Strickland goes in for the kill and it’s just a barrage of punches as Hernandez covers up against the fence. A series of uppercuts does the trick, and finally “Fluffy” goes down. Strickland polishes off the victory with about eight unanswered standing-to-ground punches.
That’s the end of Hernandez’s eight-fight UFC winning streak, and don’t look now, but Strickland is right back in the thick of the middleweight title picture.
The Official Result
Sean Strickland def. Anthony Hernandez via TKO (Knee to the Body and Punches) R3 2:33
Angelo picks Anthony Hernandez, drawing parallels to DDP's wins over Strickland via relentless forward pressure. He believes Hernandez's cardio and takedown volume will prevent Strickland from settling into his jab-heavy style. He respects Strickland's resume but thinks the matchup favors Hernandez.
Big Brady picks Anthony 'Fluffy' Hernandez to defeat Sean Strickland. He notes that Strickland has not wrestled in years, landing only two takedowns in his last several five-round fights, and that Fluffy's relentless takedown pressure will exhaust Strickland for the first time. He predicts Fluffy will land 10-15 takedowns over 25 minutes and win a decision, though a late finish wouldn't surprise him. He emphasizes Fluffy's cardio and ability to repeatedly take down opponents.
Cody believes Strickland hasn't shown knockout power and that Hernandez's cardio and grappling will be too much. He notes Strickland's tendency to abandon game plans and thinks Hernandez wins by decision or late finish. He also mentions that Strickland's split decision history makes him unreliable as a favorite.
Connor picks Strickland because he believes Hernandez's pressure will be too slow to overcome Strickland's defensive jab and front kicks. He notes that Hernandez has never faced a sprawl-and-brawl type like Strickland, and that Strickland's takedown defense, while questionable, should hold up enough to win early rounds. He also points out that Strickland has only been finished twice by huge shots, which Hernandez is unlikely to land.
The host is torn on this fight. He acknowledges that all the value lies with Strickland as a +225 underdog, citing Hernandez's injury concerns and Strickland's elite cardio and takedown defense. However, he also notes that Strickland lacks finishing power and is passive at times, making a decision win difficult. He ultimately cannot decide whether to bet Strickland and passes on betting Hernandez due to the steep -290 price.
Lucrative James picks Fluffy Hernandez to win by decision, citing his relentless pace, pressure, and cardio. He notes that Strickland has all the tools to win but often makes poor decisions in the cage, as seen in his last fight against Du Plessis. James believes Hernandez's volume and grappling will overwhelm Strickland over five rounds, though he admits the betting value is on Strickland at plus money.
Hernandez is on an eight-fight winning streak with relentless wrestling and improved durability. Strickland's takedown defense is good, but Hernandez's pace and ability to chain wrestle should wear him down. Strickland will have success on the feet, but Hernandez's grappling control and submission threats should win rounds. The over 4.5 rounds is also a strong play as both have great cardio.
Paul acknowledges Strickland's takedown defense and cardio but questions his motivation and age (turning 35). He thinks Hernandez's constant pressure and grappling will edge him on scorecards, and notes that Strickland's style leaves him at mercy of judges. He prefers to live bet Hernandez after the first round.
The MMA Guru picks Sean Strickland, believing his teep to the body and high output will be key. He notes Hernandez is often hurt to the body and that Strickland is difficult to hold down. He thinks Strickland's wrestling instincts and training with Chimaev and Ankalaev will help him stuff takedowns. He predicts a fourth or fifth round TKO.
Zane picks Hernandez despite sharing Connor's caution. He argues that Hernandez's pressure is methodical and builds over time, and that Strickland's footwork falls apart under pressure. He notes that Hernandez has improved his striking significantly, using feints and leg kicks to cut off the cage, and that Strickland has never faced a pressure grappler like Hernandez. He also points out that Strickland's win condition relies on frustrating opponents, but Hernandez has a different mindset and will keep coming.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roman Dolidze | 0 | 36 of 107 | 33% | 39 of 110 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:45 |
| Anthony Hernandez | 0 | 91 of 152 | 59% | 120 of 187 | 9 of 11 | 81% | 1 | 0 | 7:48 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roman Dolidze | 0 | 10 of 31 | 32% | 13 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:45 |
| Anthony Hernandez | 0 | 19 of 37 | 51% | 21 of 39 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:50 | |
| 2 | Roman Dolidze | 0 | 20 of 52 | 38% | 20 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Anthony Hernandez | 0 | 44 of 73 | 60% | 52 of 83 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:47 | |
| 3 | Roman Dolidze | 0 | 4 of 16 | 25% | 4 of 16 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Anthony Hernandez | 0 | 18 of 27 | 66% | 28 of 38 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:28 | |
| 4 | Roman Dolidze | 0 | 2 of 8 | 25% | 2 of 8 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Anthony Hernandez | 0 | 10 of 15 | 66% | 19 of 27 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:43 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roman Dolidze | 36 of 107 | 33% | 25 of 88 | 4 of 11 | 7 of 8 | 34 of 101 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Anthony Hernandez | 91 of 152 | 59% | 67 of 128 | 6 of 6 | 18 of 18 | 48 of 102 | 13 of 18 | 30 of 32 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roman Dolidze | 10 of 31 | 32% | 5 of 25 | 0 of 1 | 5 of 5 | 9 of 30 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Anthony Hernandez | 19 of 37 | 51% | 11 of 29 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 7 | 16 of 34 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Roman Dolidze | 20 of 52 | 38% | 15 of 42 | 3 of 7 | 2 of 3 | 19 of 49 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Anthony Hernandez | 44 of 73 | 60% | 38 of 67 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 4 | 22 of 47 | 7 of 11 | 15 of 15 | |
| 3 | Roman Dolidze | 4 of 16 | 25% | 3 of 13 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 15 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Anthony Hernandez | 18 of 27 | 66% | 11 of 20 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 5 | 5 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 14 | |
| 4 | Roman Dolidze | 2 of 8 | 25% | 2 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 7 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Anthony Hernandez | 10 of 15 | 66% | 7 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 8 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 3 |
Angelo leans Anthony Hernandez, citing his incredible cardio and pace. He notes Hernandez is a good grappler but Roman Dolidze is a phenomenal grappler with power. Angelo thinks Hernandez will take over in later rounds with pressure, similar to Umar vs Morab. He expects Hernandez to win a decision after giving up early rounds.
Big Brady is confident in Anthony Hernandez, calling him a future champion with an unmatched pace. He acknowledges Dolidze's power and tricky grappling, but believes Hernandez will survive the early rounds and take over as Dolidze's cardio fades. Brady predicts a late finish, specifically a fifth-round TKO.
Connor picks Anthony Hernandez because Hernandez has a clear, consistent game plan focused on relentless wrestling and pace, while Dolidze is clumsy, slow, and has poor takedown defense. He notes that Hernandez's cardio and mental toughness are key, and that Dolidze's only path to victory is an opportunistic finish early. Connor compares it to Ngannou vs. Gane, where the smaller wrestler exhausts the bigger opponent.
The host expects Hernandez to utilize his classic smothering grappling game and put it on Dolidze. He acknowledges Dolidze will land big shots early, but believes Hernandez can eat them and eventually break Dolidze, leading to a round four or five finish by submission.
The MMA Guru picks Roman Dolidze, highlighting his underrated jiu-jitsu and ability to attack from his back. He believes Dolidze's size and presence on the feet will trouble Hernandez, who relies on volume. He predicts a submission or ground-and-pound TKO in round two or three, possibly after hurting Hernandez on the feet.
Zane agrees with Connor, emphasizing that Hernandez's wrestling process is relentless and that Dolidze's takedown defense is terrible (33%). He notes that Hernandez is a smaller middleweight but has great cardio, while Dolidze is a big, lumbering oaf who gasses. Zane thinks Hernandez will exhaust Dolidze against the cage and eventually get a finish.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brendan Allen | 0 | 14 of 26 | 53% | 53 of 71 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 3 | 2:58 |
| Anthony Hernandez | 0 | 30 of 42 | 71% | 72 of 91 | 4 of 8 | 50% | 0 | 2 | 10:22 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brendan Allen | 0 | 8 of 13 | 61% | 30 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 2:09 |
| Anthony Hernandez | 0 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 10 of 13 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:23 | |
| 2 | Brendan Allen | 0 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 1 | 0:44 |
| Anthony Hernandez | 0 | 13 of 16 | 81% | 25 of 29 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 4:04 | |
| 3 | Brendan Allen | 0 | 5 of 12 | 41% | 17 of 25 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 0:05 |
| Anthony Hernandez | 0 | 14 of 21 | 66% | 37 of 49 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 1 | 3:55 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brendan Allen | 14 of 26 | 53% | 8 of 19 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 4 | 10 of 22 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 |
| Anthony Hernandez | 30 of 42 | 71% | 30 of 42 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 17 | 0 of 1 | 18 of 24 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brendan Allen | 8 of 13 | 61% | 4 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Anthony Hernandez | 3 of 5 | 60% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | |
| 2 | Brendan Allen | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Anthony Hernandez | 13 of 16 | 81% | 13 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 15 | |
| 3 | Brendan Allen | 5 of 12 | 41% | 4 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Anthony Hernandez | 14 of 21 | 66% | 14 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 14 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 6 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
In 2018, Allen (24-6, 12-3 UFC) and Hernandez (13-2, 1 NC; 7-2 UFC) collided for the LFA middleweight strap, and “Fluffy” emerged the victor by decision. Since then, both men have made their mark on the UFC’s 185-pound division, and a spot in the top 10 now looms for the winner. Referee Mike Beltran will get to handle the proceedings for the co-main event, one that should have two extra rounds. Gloves are touched, and Allen opens up with a hearty low kick. Allen probes out a few jabs, and he disrupts Hernandez who is looking for an early takedown. Allen nails his foe with a leg kick and then wraps a head kick around the guard. With Hernandez stunned, Allen jumps on to his back, only for Hernandez to hurl him to his back. Allen scrambles wildly to get to his knees, and he nearly gets Hernandez’ back again in the process. Hernandez stops him from completing a takedown or back take, and he leans Allen against the wall. “Fluffy” wrangles Allen to the mat, where he lands in side control. The knee guard from Allen protects him from losing mount, and he sits up and leans up against the cage while Hernandez is still behind him. Allen tries to stand, but Hernandez is on him like a cheap suit, pushing on the back of Allen’s neck while always flirting with some kind of submission setup. Allen turns him around to claim top position, flipping Hernandez to his back and dropping down a few strikes. Hernandez strikes back off his back, being busy enough to make Allen think twice about recklessly passing guard. Allen partially isolates an arm-triangle choke while sitting in half guard, and Hernandez motions a thumbs-up to his corner. Allen postures up and jacks Hernandez in the jaw with a few punches, and he isolates Hernandez’ arm for an armlock setup. Allen nearly takes the back, but he slides into mount and starts hammering Hernandez in the face with right hands and elbows. Allen wraps up a rear-naked choke, and it is briefly under the chin until Hernandez turns himself to his back and slithers out. Allen smashes down with a number of elbows that split Hernandez’ forehead open, and the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Allen
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Allen
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Allen
Round 2
Allen kicks off the round with another powerful low kick, and Hernandez sprints at him in pursuit of a takedown. As they whirl around, Hernandez succeeds in grounding Allen. Hernandez hangs on from the side and keeps Allen on his seat, and he leans over to wrap up a guillotine choke. Allen escapes the submissions without a modicum of concern, and he keeps moving in hopes of rolling his foe over. Hernandez follows the scrambles and grabs hold of a rear-naked choke, and this time it is Allen who turns the proper directly to break it up. Hernandez gets one hook in while Allen is on his knees, and he elbows Allen in the side of the head. Allen hangs onto the wrist to keep Hernandez from gaining a dominant position, and he shoots in for a takedown only to find Hernandez setting up an anaconda choke. Allen knows it is coming and turns to his back, permitting Hernandez to establish top position for the moment. Allen turns over voluntarily and keeps spinning, and Hernandez him until exploding around to take Hernandez’ back. Allen has his own hook in, and he attempts a brute force neck crank without bothering to fasting his hooks or the grip all the way. Hernandez grits his teeth and stands up, chucking Allen to his back and dropping down heavy strikes. Allen scrambles and gives up half guard on his back so as to not be in submission danger, but this opens him up to Hernandez’ right hand and elbow. A few more strikes come from Hernandez before the round concludes.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez
Round 3
The fighters hug it out as the third round begins, and this time Allen punches instead of kicks to get going. Hernandez strikes back, and Allen claims he was poked in the eye while Hernandez states it was a closed fist. Beltran calls time and checks the replay, and when they determine it was indeed a punch, they resume the action. Hernandez surges right forward to grapple, and Allen pushes it off and drills Hernandez in the face with a left hook. Hernandez clutches his eye as he is suddenly in jeopardy, and he backs away. When Hernandez’ back hits the fence, he swings hard, and Allen dodges and attempts a standing submission. The two scramble and return to their feet, where Allen again clubs his man in the face to hurt him. Hernandez desperately pursues a takedown, and Allen deliberately lowers himself to one knee to take knees to the head out of the equation. When Hernandez sells out for a takedown, Allen keeps himself afloat and never truly goes down, although he returns to one knee down. Hernandez has his hands clasped around the waist, and he turns the corner and gets Allen down to his seat momentarily. Allen winces and returns to a knee, and Hernandez slips his arm beneath the chin for a second but is stopped from getting a choke. Hernandez keeps heavy on top of his opponent, not letting Allen get to his feet, and Allen appears frustrated and wants to fight instead of wrestle in this stalemate position. Hernandez has no plan on changing gears, and he snatches up a rear-naked choke and falls off the side. Allen uses two-on-one wrist control to free himself from the worst of it, and he smacks Hernandez and knocks his mouthpiece out. The two fall all over the place, possibly from fatigue or sweat, and Hernandez is the one who establishes top position raining down strikes. Allen backwards somersaults in a desperate attempt to get out, but Hernandez hangs onto him until the final buzzer. This could have used two more rounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez (29-28 Hernandez)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez (29-28 Hernandez)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez (29-28 Hernandez)
The Official Result
Anthony Hernandez def. Brendan Allen via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo, a self-proclaimed 'fluffy underestimator', picks Anthony Hernandez for the first time. He credits Hernandez's incredible cardio as the key weapon that weaponizes his other skills, noting his win over Michel Pereira was wildly impressive. He thinks the pace will matter even in a three-round fight, and that Hernandez's work ethic makes the difference.
Big Brady picks Anthony 'Fluffy' Hernandez, noting his relentless wrestling and scrambling pace that most middleweights can't keep up with. He thinks Brendan Allen may have early success and win the first round, but Hernandez will wear him down, take him down, and dominate the later rounds. He references Allen's poor performance against Imavov, where he was out-grappled, and says if that version of Allen shows up, Hernandez finishes him. He predicts Hernandez by decision.
Connor picks Hernandez, agreeing that Allen's gas tank is a concern and that Hernandez's pressure will be too much. He notes that Allen improved a lot in the UFC and has submitted good grapplers, but Hernandez's style of constant scrambling and pace is a bad matchup. Connor also mentions that Hernandez's striking is terrible but his willingness to eat damage and keep pace makes it work.
The host believes Hernandez is clearly in his prime and will utilize his classic style: putting Allen through the ringer, pushing him against the cage, dragging him to the ground, and being too much. He predicts Hernandez wins on the scorecards.
The Guru picks Hernandez, citing his positional grappling dominance and better cardio compared to Allen. He notes Allen's tendency to lose position by chasing submissions, as seen in the Jacob Malkoun fight. He believes Hernandez is a better version of Malkoun—bigger, rangier, more durable—and will outgrapple Allen over three rounds. He also questions Allen's fight IQ.
Zane picks Hernandez because he believes Hernandez's relentless scrambling and pace will overwhelm Allen, who gassed against Nassourdine Imavov. He notes that Allen's best path is to catch Hernandez in a submission, but Hernandez never accepts a bad position and keeps scrambling. Zane also points out that Allen's striking is poor and he will willingly fall into the clinch, playing into Hernandez's game.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Hernandez | 0 | 152 of 212 | 71% | 219 of 293 | 10 of 29 | 34% | 0 | 0 | 15:42 |
| Michel Pereira | 0 | 24 of 53 | 45% | 29 of 62 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0:56 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Anthony Hernandez | 0 | 27 of 52 | 51% | 30 of 55 | 1 of 8 | 12% | 0 | 0 | 1:25 |
| Michel Pereira | 0 | 15 of 34 | 44% | 17 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:19 | |
| 2 | Anthony Hernandez | 0 | 30 of 47 | 63% | 47 of 68 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 3:18 |
| Michel Pereira | 0 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 1 | 0:35 | |
| 3 | Anthony Hernandez | 0 | 44 of 55 | 80% | 64 of 77 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 4:17 |
| Michel Pereira | 0 | 3 of 8 | 37% | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Anthony Hernandez | 0 | 29 of 35 | 82% | 48 of 62 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 4:35 |
| Michel Pereira | 0 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 5 of 9 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 | |
| 5 | Anthony Hernandez | 0 | 22 of 23 | 95% | 30 of 31 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 2:07 |
| Michel Pereira | 0 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Hernandez | 152 of 212 | 71% | 125 of 182 | 22 of 24 | 5 of 6 | 43 of 81 | 12 of 14 | 97 of 117 |
| Michel Pereira | 24 of 53 | 45% | 8 of 27 | 16 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 20 of 45 | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Anthony Hernandez | 27 of 52 | 51% | 20 of 42 | 5 of 7 | 2 of 3 | 17 of 40 | 4 of 5 | 6 of 7 |
| Michel Pereira | 15 of 34 | 44% | 7 of 19 | 8 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 28 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Anthony Hernandez | 30 of 47 | 63% | 25 of 42 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 15 | 0 of 1 | 21 of 31 |
| Michel Pereira | 2 of 7 | 28% | 0 of 4 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Anthony Hernandez | 44 of 55 | 80% | 31 of 42 | 11 of 11 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 15 | 4 of 4 | 32 of 36 |
| Michel Pereira | 3 of 8 | 37% | 1 of 4 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 6 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Anthony Hernandez | 29 of 35 | 82% | 28 of 34 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 21 of 26 |
| Michel Pereira | 3 of 3 | 100% | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Anthony Hernandez | 22 of 23 | 95% | 21 of 22 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 17 of 17 |
| Michel Pereira | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Michel Pereira as an underdog, having bet on him at +135. He believes Pereira's athleticism, power, and grappling are too much for Anthony Hernandez, whose only path to victory is grappling. He thinks Pereira is the more dynamic and dangerous fighter, and that Hernandez cannot out-strike him. He notes Pereira's recent success at middleweight and dismisses cardio concerns, saying Pereira has shown he can maintain pace. He is confident Pereira wins.
Big Brady picks Anthony Hernandez by third-round submission. He sees it as Pereira early, Hernandez late. Pereira has three quick wins but gasses; Hernandez has great cardio and grappling. If Hernandez survives the first five to seven minutes, he will take over, take Pereira down, and finish him in the third round. He mentions a good live bet spot.
Connor picks Hernandez, comparing his style to a larger, more skilled Tristan Connelly who will make Pereira pay for every bad decision. He notes that Hernandez's pace and pressure grappling are exactly the kind of game that troubled Pereira in the past. However, he acknowledges that Hernandez might get knocked out early, as he has been hurt in many of his recent wins.
Lucrative James believes Fluffy Hernandez will overwhelm Sean Strickland with constant forward pressure, takedown attempts, and volume. He notes that Strickland struggles when opponents don't let him establish his jab and one-two rhythm. James predicts Hernandez will win a decision by outworking Strickland over five rounds.
Pereira will be dangerous in the opening five minutes, but Hernandez has done a great job wearing opponents down, keeping them in the clinch, taking them down, and utilizing submission attempts. Hernandez will wear Pereira down and get a finish in the third or fourth round.
The Guru picks Pereira despite acknowledging Hernandez's grappling skills. He believes Pereira's athleticism, power, and body work will be too much, predicting an early finish by TKO or submission. He notes Pereira has finished all his middleweight opponents quickly and envisions Pereira stuffing a takedown, landing knees to the body, and getting a guillotine or rear-naked choke.
Zane picks Pereira because of his insane speed at middleweight, which he believes Hernandez will not be ready for. He acknowledges that if Hernandez survives the early onslaught, he will likely take over with pressure and grappling, but Zane trusts Pereira's athleticism to get the job done early. He notes that Pereira has learned to pace himself after the Tristan Connelly loss, but still has that loss in him.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Hernandez | 0 | 34 of 77 | 44% | 39 of 82 | 3 of 14 | 21% | 2 | 0 | 4:05 |
| Roman Kopylov | 0 | 35 of 57 | 61% | 41 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Anthony Hernandez | 0 | 20 of 42 | 47% | 23 of 45 | 1 of 11 | 9% | 0 | 0 | 2:05 |
| Roman Kopylov | 0 | 16 of 29 | 55% | 21 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Anthony Hernandez | 0 | 14 of 35 | 40% | 16 of 37 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 2 | 0 | 2:00 |
| Roman Kopylov | 0 | 19 of 28 | 67% | 20 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Hernandez | 34 of 77 | 44% | 28 of 68 | 4 of 6 | 2 of 3 | 24 of 65 | 8 of 10 | 2 of 2 |
| Roman Kopylov | 35 of 57 | 61% | 21 of 43 | 8 of 8 | 6 of 6 | 34 of 56 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Anthony Hernandez | 20 of 42 | 47% | 16 of 35 | 3 of 5 | 1 of 2 | 13 of 35 | 6 of 6 | 1 of 1 |
| Roman Kopylov | 16 of 29 | 55% | 8 of 21 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 5 | 16 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Anthony Hernandez | 14 of 35 | 40% | 12 of 33 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 30 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 |
| Roman Kopylov | 19 of 28 | 67% | 13 of 22 | 5 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 18 of 27 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Hernandez (-205), Kopylov (+170)
Round 1
To kick off the main card, two middleweights that struggled early on in their UFC tenures only to figure things out as they went along will come crashing into one another. One of these four-fight win streaks will come to a grinding halt, whether it is wild submission specialist Hernandez (11-2, 1 NC; 5-2 UFC) or knockout artist Kopylov (12-2, 4-2 UFC). In their last eight outings, the two men have combined for seven finishes, so referee Jason Herzog needs to be on his A-game from here on out. There is a show of respect as the two decide to touch gloves before engaging. The two toss leg kicks at one another to immediately engage, and Hernandez dives forward after a low leg only to get stood up by the Russian. Hernandez threatens with another takedown to keep Kopylov guessing, and when that comes up short, Kopylov kicks him in the lead calf. Kopylov intercepts Hernandez coming in with a straight left hand, and he lands a solid body kick that draws a wince out of “Fluffy.” Kopylov just misses with a massive head kick, and Hernandez continues to put his foot on the gas even if he is throwing far less volume. Kopylov scores another body kick, and Hernandez races at him to get hold of a takedown, but that is also rebuffed. Kopylov bounces off and drives a one-two on the chin, and Hernandez tries to fires back and reaches him with an overhand right. Kopylov gets off a low kick and a right hand over the top, and his body kick that follows lands with emphasis. Kopylov remains busy even when on his bike, and he stops only to defend a single from “Fluffy.” Hernandez drags his man to one knee, but he cannot keep him there. Kopylov jabs until he is backed off from a right hand, and Hernandez gives chase and scores a right hook before diving after a double. Kopylov defends against it, and Hernandez changes to a single as he pushes Kopylov into the wall. Kopylov keeps his balance despite the numerous attempts, and he bounces off the fence to stay on his feet when Hernandez redoubles his effort. Hernandez doggedly looks for takedowns, and when stood up, he rips an elbow before shooting low again. Kopylov thwarts him, so Hernandez changes his strategy to just try to toss him down with a body lock. Kopylov spins all the way around but does not go down, and Hernandez knees him high and elbows him a few times before one final shot at the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov
Round 2
The middleweights touch ‘em up to start off the second stanza, and Hernandez reaches out early with a swatting right hand. Kopylov retaliates with a thudding kick to the ribs, and Hernandez darts forward to jab the body. Kopylov digs a left to the body, and Hernandez grins but might have been hurt with it. Hernandez continues to pour on his pressure and offense, walking through shots and allowing himself to get hit so he can strike back. Kopylov stuns him with a body kick, and he lands a few additional shots, fires off a head kick that bounces off the guard and scores one more kick to the ribs. Hernandez sticks his tongue out, and he wades forward for a takedown. Kopylov plants his shin on Hernandez’ belly while Hernandez is shooting, and Hernandez partially gets Kopylov down but cannot quite ground him completely. Hernandez gets stonewalled, and he threatens with a guillotine before dropping down to scoop up the Russian’s legs and plat him on the mat. Hernandez instantly starts fishing for a neck crank, with a rear-naked choke grip not in play. Kopylov defends the hands, but Hernandez wraps both hooks around the waist and squeezes with all his might and pulls back. Kopylov is in grave danger, and he toughs it out and signals a thumbs-up to show he is still in it. Hernandez sees this gesture and adjusts his grip to the other side, where his forearm slices beneath the chin. This time, it is done, and Hernandez knows it as he grins to the camera and nods. Hernandez squeezes and waits, and Kopylov thinks about going out on his shield but taps out instead. An elated Hernandez points to his corner as soon as he releases the grip, and he chucks his mouthpiece in a celebratory gesture after a big victory.
The Official Result
Anthony Hernandez def. Roman Kopylov R2 3:23 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Angelo picks Roman Kopylov as a dog, citing his superior striking and improved takedown defense. He notes Hernandez averages seven takedowns per fight but struggles to hold people down. He expects Kopylov to make Hernandez pay for every entry and potentially finish. He plans a small bet on Kopylov and may bet the under if a 2.5 round line is available.
Big Brady picks Anthony Hernandez to win by second-round submission, specifically an anaconda choke. He highlights Hernandez's incredible wrestling (6.79 takedowns per 15 minutes) and cardio, and notes Kopylov's poor ground game as seen in losses to du Plessis and Roberson. He warns that Hernandez must avoid Kopylov's body attacks, which have hurt him in the past, but expects him to wrestle early and break Kopylov.
Cody leans toward Kopylov as a dog, noting his technical striking and improved takedown defense after training in Dagestan. He questions whether Hernandez can get takedowns early and often. He sees value in Kopylov at plus money, but admits he's not fully confident pre-fight.
Daniel Vreeland is extremely confident in Anthony Hernandez, calling it a slam dunk. He highlights Hernandez's relentless pressure wrestling, cardio, and submission skills, noting he has taken down and submitted high-level grapplers like Rodolfo Vieira. He believes Kopylov's takedown defense is untested and that he gasses, while Hernandez will wear him down and finish him. He thinks the true price should be -350 to -400.
Hernandez has a grapple-heavy, pressure style that breaks opponents. Kopylov is dangerous with combinations but Hernandez will push him to the cage, chain wrestle, and eventually break him. Expects a third-round submission.
Paul picks Hernandez, comparing him to Jacob Malkoun for his relentless wrestling and cardio. He notes Hernandez's ability to chain-wrestle and submit opponents, as seen against Rodolfo Vieira and Josh Fremd. He questions Kopylov's takedown defense against a high-volume wrestler, noting that Kopylov has gassed in fights. He believes Hernandez will grind on Kopylov and eventually get a finish or decision.
The MMA Guru picks Anthony Hernandez, citing his underrated grappling and pace. He notes Kopylov was outgrappled by Cole Roberson and had moments of struggle against lesser opponents. He believes Hernandez's cardio and wrestling will overwhelm Kopylov, predicting a finish in round two or three. He also mentions Kopylov's body is open for body shots.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Hernandez | 0 | 30 of 51 | 58% | 33 of 55 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:41 |
| Edmen Shahbazyan | 0 | 63 of 88 | 71% | 77 of 105 | 6 of 15 | 40% | 4 | 0 | 7:11 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Anthony Hernandez | 0 | 25 of 42 | 59% | 27 of 45 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Edmen Shahbazyan | 0 | 15 of 27 | 55% | 17 of 30 | 2 of 8 | 25% | 2 | 0 | 2:29 | |
| 2 | Anthony Hernandez | 0 | 4 of 8 | 50% | 5 of 9 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:18 |
| Edmen Shahbazyan | 0 | 28 of 39 | 71% | 39 of 50 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 2 | 0 | 3:54 | |
| 3 | Anthony Hernandez | 0 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Edmen Shahbazyan | 0 | 20 of 22 | 90% | 21 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:48 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Hernandez | 30 of 51 | 58% | 21 of 42 | 8 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 17 of 35 | 11 of 14 | 2 of 2 |
| Edmen Shahbazyan | 63 of 88 | 71% | 55 of 79 | 4 of 4 | 4 of 5 | 15 of 33 | 8 of 8 | 40 of 47 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Anthony Hernandez | 25 of 42 | 59% | 17 of 34 | 7 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 27 | 10 of 13 | 2 of 2 |
| Edmen Shahbazyan | 15 of 27 | 55% | 13 of 24 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 7 of 19 | 6 of 6 | 2 of 2 | |
| 2 | Anthony Hernandez | 4 of 8 | 50% | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Edmen Shahbazyan | 28 of 39 | 71% | 22 of 33 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 7 of 13 | 2 of 2 | 19 of 24 | |
| 3 | Anthony Hernandez | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Edmen Shahbazyan | 20 of 22 | 90% | 20 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 19 of 21 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Hernandez (-240), Shahbazyan (+200)
Round 1
It’s an all-California middleweight rumble in the co-main attraction, as the resurgent Shahbazyan (12-3, 5-3 UFC) looks to halt the impressive but brief win streak of “Fluffy” Hernandez (10-2, 1 NC; 4-2 UFC). Finish rates of 92% for the former and 80% for the latter mean that while the judges might not be needed for the bout’s duration, referee Herb Dean very well may be required. Before the action begins, the two 185ers try to touch gloves and miss, so they abandon it. Shahbazyan lands the first blow with a right hand, and Hernandez responds with a takedown entry. Shahbazyan loads up with a right hand to hurt “Fluffy” and bends him over, and Hernandez backs away to the wall as Shahbazyan unloads with a series of punches. Hernandez backs away, shells up, sticks his tongue out and counters. Hernandez then goes for a takedown, and he gets tossed out of the way and tagged with a serious jab from his foe. Shahbazyan steps in with a one-two that knocks Hernandez back, and Hernandez rolls with it to take away the worst of it but he cannot buy a takedown at this point. Shahbazyan counters an entry with a knee and stands his foe up when trying, and he scores an elbow and looks to counter with a takedown of his own. Hernandez jumps guard with a guillotine choke, and he bails on it to stand when it is not close. When both are up again, Shahbazyan kicks his foe in the chest, and Hernandez gives chase and drills him the face with a right hand. Hernandez jams his man into the wire, where he looks for a body lock takedown or a throw. Hernandez chains his attempt to a single, and he runs his foe from one side of the cage to the other but cannot ground him. Shahbazyan defends well and plants a knee on the chest, and Hernandez slashes an elbow over the top to cut open the left eyebrow. Hernandez shoots and finds himself in guillotine choke danger, and he turns all the way through it to get out. Shahbazyan rolls to his back to go after an armbar, and he loses the grip and winds up in choke danger on his own side. Hernandez looks for a modified arm-in guillotine choke, and he lets it go so that he can take the fight down on his own terms. Shahbazyan works his way up, and he eats a few elbows and succumbs to a double with 20 seconds to spare. Hernandez sets up a rear-naked choke while his foe is seated, and Shahbazyan stands up and takes a knee on the chin before the horn sounds to end the wild frame.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez
Round 2
The middleweights meet in the center of the cage, and Hernandez lands a punch, a kick and shoots in for a takedown. When Shahbazyan turns it around on him, Hernandez goes for his unorthodox guillotine again. Shahbazyan turns through to get to a knee, and he stands up and pushes off with a right hand. The two trade jabs, their pace slowed momentarily, and Hernandez chains a jab into an elbow. When Shahbazyan backs into the cage, Hernandez rings his bell with a straight right hand. This leads to a tie-up, and both men fight to get a takedown and drop to a knee. Shahbazyan drops down for a single, and Hernandez dumps him on his face, turns the corner and hits a double. Hernandez lets him sit up so he can punch him in the face, and he stays pinned to a fatiguing Shahbazyan and looks to pick him up and throw him down again. Shahbazyan stands up and gets kneed in the chest, and he is fading fast as Hernandez is on him, smothering him or landing punches. Hernandez grabs hold of a guillotine choke, and he flips his foe over to full mount. When Shahbazyan scrambles, Hernandez transitions the choke to another side, and then to an anaconda. Shahbazyan escapes them all, winding up on top, but Hernandez is on him with another guillotine in the blink of an eye. Hernandez takes his back and looks for a choke, all while working Shahbazyan over with elbows when he can find one. Hernandez goes for another one of his strange guillotine chokes, and he lets it go to take the back and fish for a rear-naked choke. Shahbazyan turns and defends properly, but he cannot get Hernandez off of him. Hernandez sits up with fierce punches and elbows, and he thumps Shahbazyan with elbows to the head, body and thigh until the horn blares.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Hernandez
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Hernandez
Round 3
The fighters have reached the last round, and Hernandez reintroduces himself to his foe with a head kick. It does not take more than about 12 seconds for Hernandez to hit a takedown, and he sits up and starts belting the spent Shahbazyan with punches and elbows.
The elbows from “Fluffy” have opened up another cut on the face of his opponent, and he sits up and keeps beating on his doomed adversary. Hernandez, seeing that he has Shahbazyan at the end of his rope, slashes down with elbows and adds in few punches to seal the deal. Dean, seeing that Shahbazyan is completely cooked, intervenes for a merciful stoppage
, saving the young fighter from any further punishment. “Fluffy” made a seriously statement to the rest of the middleweight division with this gutsy performance, and he might have a number next to his name next week, now celebrating four stoppages in row.
The Official Result
Alexander Hernandez def. Edmen Shahbazyan R3 1:01 via TKO (Elbows and Punches)
Angelo picks Anthony Hernandez confidently, citing his superior grappling and high takedown volume. He notes that while Hernandez's control could be better, Shahbazyan struggles to get back to his feet when taken down. He considers Hernandez safe for parlays.
Big Brady picks Anthony Hernandez to submit Edmen Shahbazyan in the second round. He calls it a terrible matchup for Shahbazyan, who has historically faded in later rounds. Hernandez is known for his cardio, pressure, and wrestling, and should break Shahbazyan. He notes Shahbazyan is dangerous early but expects Hernandez to weather the storm and finish him in the second.
Cody highlights Hernandez's relentless wrestling and cardio, noting he averaged 8 takedowns in his last two fights. He contrasts Shahbazyan's tendency to fade after the first round and poor takedown defense. He expects Hernandez to wear Shahbazyan down with chain wrestling and secure a late finish or dominant decision.
Connor picks Shahbazyan, citing his much cleaner striking and the potential to finish Hernandez early. He acknowledges the risk of Hernandez's pace but believes Shahbazyan's improved camp (ditching Tiverdian, sparring with Sean Strickland, training at Xtreme Couture) and his composed performance against Lungiambula are good signs. He thinks Shahbazyan could easily knock Hernandez out or tune him up, and that Hernandez's wide-open striking leaves opportunities for Shahbazyan to land clean shots.
Daniel Levi confidently picks Anthony 'Fluffy' Hernandez. He highlights Hernandez's relentless takedown game, noting he landed 16 takedowns in his last two fights (8/11 vs Josh Fremd, 8/14 vs Marc-André Barriault). He believes Hernandez will survive Shahbazyan's dangerous first round and then break him with pressure and grappling, as Shahbazyan has historically faded past the first round. Levi acknowledges Hernandez's durability concerns (body shots) but thinks his wrestling and cardio will be the difference.
The host is very confident in Anthony Hernandez, calling it a smash spot. He believes Hernandez's relentless forward pressure, cardio, and grappling will drown Shahbazyan, who has cardio issues. He predicts a submission in round two, noting that if Shahbazyan doesn't get an early KO, Hernandez will take over.
Paul agrees, citing Hernandez's improved pace and cardio, and the stylistic advantage of his wrestling against Shahbazyan's suspect takedown defense. He notes that Shahbazyan's cardio issues are likely to be exploited, leading to Hernandez dominating later rounds.
The MMA Guru picks Anthony Hernandez, calling him a style designed to beat Edmen Shahbazyan. He highlights Hernandez's pace-pushing wrestling and scrambles, which he believes will get into Shahbazyan's head. He notes Shahbazyan's demons may creep in as the fight goes on, and that Hernandez is a nightmare matchup. He acknowledges a chance Shahbazyan wins by first-round TKO but expects Hernandez to overcome early danger and win.
Zane picks Hernandez because he believes Shahbazyan's historical issues with pace and grappling pressure will resurface. He notes that Hernandez has one of the best gas tanks and pushes a relentless pace, which is exactly the kind of problem Shahbazyan has struggled with. Even with Shahbazyan's improved camp and confidence from his last win, Zane needs to see more than a win over Dalcha Lungiambula to trust him against a pressure fighter like Hernandez.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Hernandez | 0 | 39 of 60 | 65% | 58 of 84 | 8 of 14 | 57% | 2 | 0 | 8:45 |
| Marc-André Barriault | 0 | 25 of 53 | 47% | 34 of 62 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:25 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Anthony Hernandez | 0 | 19 of 34 | 55% | 25 of 42 | 3 of 8 | 37% | 0 | 0 | 3:04 |
| Marc-André Barriault | 0 | 13 of 29 | 44% | 19 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:25 | |
| 2 | Anthony Hernandez | 0 | 18 of 23 | 78% | 31 of 39 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 4:06 |
| Marc-André Barriault | 0 | 10 of 20 | 50% | 13 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Anthony Hernandez | 0 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 2 of 3 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 1 | 0 | 1:35 |
| Marc-André Barriault | 0 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Hernandez | 39 of 60 | 65% | 31 of 52 | 8 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 35 | 8 of 12 | 13 of 13 |
| Marc-André Barriault | 25 of 53 | 47% | 16 of 44 | 9 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 42 | 10 of 11 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Anthony Hernandez | 19 of 34 | 55% | 15 of 30 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 23 | 5 of 8 | 3 of 3 |
| Marc-André Barriault | 13 of 29 | 44% | 8 of 24 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 24 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Anthony Hernandez | 18 of 23 | 78% | 15 of 20 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 9 | 3 of 4 | 10 of 10 |
| Marc-André Barriault | 10 of 20 | 50% | 7 of 17 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 15 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Anthony Hernandez | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Marc-André Barriault | 2 of 4 | 50% | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Hernandez because he is a superior grappler who should get takedowns against Barriault, who has been taken down by lesser grapplers. He notes that Barriault is the better striker, so Hernandez must be careful on the feet. Angelo believes Hernandez's path is clear: takedowns and control.
Big Brady picks Anthony Hernandez to win by decision. He highlights Hernandez's relentless wrestling (5.39 takedowns per 15 minutes with 70% accuracy) and cardio. Brady notes that Barriault has poor takedown defense but a good get-up game, so Hernandez may not hold him down for long. However, Brady believes Hernandez's pace and pressure will wear down Barriault, and he expects Hernandez to wrestle his way to a decision victory. He also mentions that the striking should be competitive, with a slight edge to Barriault.
Cody thinks Hernandez's relentless wrestling and cardio will overwhelm Barriault. He notes Barriault's recent losses and that he was knocked out by Chidi Njokuani. Cody expects Hernandez to grind out a decision or possibly get a submission.
Daniel Levi picks Marc-André Barriault at plus 155 odds, placing one unit. He likes Barriault's move to Sanford MMA, improved takedown defense, and body attack potential against Hernandez, who has shown vulnerability to body shots. He thinks Barriault's output and cardio can carry him in a close fight, but acknowledges Hernandez's submission threat and grinding style. He sees value in the underdog.
Jacob is all-in on Hernandez, noting that Barriault's takedown defense is poor and that Hernandez is a better wrestler than Jordan Wright, who was about to dominate Barriault before getting caught in a guillotine. Jacob believes Hernandez will not make that mistake and will dominate the wrestling. He thinks the -174 odds are good value.
Hernandez will drown Barriault with his wrestling and pace, similar to a poor man's Cain Velasquez. Barriault is not a big finisher and Hernandez's durability is the only question mark. If Hernandez stays conscious, he will win via takedowns and pressure. Barriault's heavy strikes will be countered with level changes. Hernandez by decision at +200 is a good spot.
Paul leans Hernandez, noting Barriault's takedown defense issues. He thinks Hernandez can wrestle and potentially submit him. He mentions the prize picks line of 3 takedowns for Hernandez and thinks that's achievable.
The MMA Guru picks Anthony Hernandez by decision. He is impressed by Hernandez's pace and grappling, especially after his win over Josh Fremd. He thinks Barriault relies on outpacing opponents but won't be able to outpace Hernandez. He notes Barriault has been KO'd by Chidi Njokuani and struggled against durable fighters. He expects Hernandez to take over in later rounds with heavy grappling and improved striking, winning a close 29-28 decision.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Hernandez | 0 | 48 of 71 | 67% | 91 of 124 | 8 of 11 | 72% | 3 | 0 | 10:45 |
| Josh Fremd | 0 | 31 of 54 | 57% | 43 of 67 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 1 | 2:37 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Anthony Hernandez | 0 | 17 of 31 | 54% | 26 of 44 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 1 | 0 | 4:12 |
| Josh Fremd | 0 | 16 of 30 | 53% | 22 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Anthony Hernandez | 0 | 13 of 17 | 76% | 25 of 31 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 1:42 |
| Josh Fremd | 0 | 13 of 20 | 65% | 16 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 1 | 2:37 | |
| 3 | Anthony Hernandez | 0 | 18 of 23 | 78% | 40 of 49 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 4:51 |
| Josh Fremd | 0 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Hernandez | 48 of 71 | 67% | 39 of 62 | 8 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 25 | 5 of 9 | 34 of 37 |
| Josh Fremd | 31 of 54 | 57% | 16 of 37 | 13 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 15 of 35 | 12 of 14 | 4 of 5 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Anthony Hernandez | 17 of 31 | 54% | 13 of 27 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 17 | 4 of 8 | 6 of 6 |
| Josh Fremd | 16 of 30 | 53% | 7 of 20 | 7 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 21 | 6 of 8 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Anthony Hernandez | 13 of 17 | 76% | 11 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 11 |
| Josh Fremd | 13 of 20 | 65% | 8 of 14 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 12 | 5 of 5 | 2 of 3 | |
| 3 | Anthony Hernandez | 18 of 23 | 78% | 15 of 20 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 17 of 20 |
| Josh Fremd | 2 of 4 | 50% | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
Angelo gives a slight edge to Anthony Hernandez due to his UFC experience and better pure BJJ. He acknowledges Josh Fremd's athleticism and potential, but notes the short notice and nerves for Fremd. He calls Fremd one of the most live underdogs on the card.
Big Brady picks Anthony Hernandez to win by second-round submission. He expects Fremd to land big shots early but Hernandez to take over with pace and cardio, eventually finishing Fremd. He notes Hernandez's submission game is very good, having submitted Rodolfo Vieira, and that Fremd is coming in on short notice.
Cody leans towards Fremd as an underdog, thinking the price is wrong. He notes Fremd's wrestling, cardio, and cleaner striking, and that Hernandez has been inactive and has a questionable chin. Cody acknowledges Fremd got knocked out by Rodrigues but thinks he can outwork Hernandez. He signs up for Fremd as a low-confidence dog.
Levi praises Josh Fremd's offensive skills (calf kicks, jab, knees) and size, but criticizes his tall man's defense and tendency to get dropped. He likes Anthony Hernandez's experience, toughness, and submission game (guillotine, d'arce). He thinks Hernandez can capitalize on Fremd's defensive openings but is not crazy about laying -200, so he passes on betting.
I love Hernandez as a prospect; he reminds me of a prime Cain Velasquez with pressure and grappling. I think he will push the pace from the start, land takedowns, and get a finish via ground and pound or submission. The fight not going to decision is one of my favorite lines. I see him getting his hand raised inside the distance.
Paul passes on this fight, saying it terrifies him too much. He notes Hernandez's submission win over Vieira was due to fatigue, and that Fremd got knocked out by Gregory Rodrigues. Paul doesn't like Hernandez at -200 and doesn't see enough in Fremd to bet. He considers the under but doesn't commit.
The MMA Guru picks Anthony Hernandez, noting that Josh Fremd is on short notice. He expects Fremd to start well but fade, with Hernandez getting a third-round submission or TKO. He highlights Hernandez's toughness and ability to survive dangerous positions.
Josh Fremd - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Petroski | 0 | 16 of 24 | 66% | 60 of 74 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
| Josh Fremd | 0 | 12 of 18 | 66% | 30 of 51 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 1 | 0 | 12:50 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andre Petroski | 0 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 11 of 14 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Josh Fremd | 0 | 6 of 7 | 85% | 14 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:29 | |
| 2 | Andre Petroski | 0 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 26 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Josh Fremd | 0 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 3 of 9 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 4:21 | |
| 3 | Andre Petroski | 0 | 10 of 14 | 71% | 23 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
| Josh Fremd | 0 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 13 of 19 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Petroski | 16 of 24 | 66% | 10 of 15 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 1 | 14 of 20 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 |
| Josh Fremd | 12 of 18 | 66% | 5 of 11 | 5 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andre Petroski | 4 of 7 | 57% | 2 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Josh Fremd | 6 of 7 | 85% | 4 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | |
| 2 | Andre Petroski | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Josh Fremd | 2 of 6 | 33% | 1 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Andre Petroski | 10 of 14 | 71% | 7 of 9 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 11 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Josh Fremd | 4 of 5 | 80% | 0 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Fremd (-110), Petroski (-110)
Round 1
A pair of middleweights happy to get the job done any way they can will meet as the prelims roll on. Both Fremd (11-5, 2-3 UFC) and Petroski (10-3, 5-2 UFC) celebrate exactly four wins by knockout and four by submission, and both are coming in off rough knockout losses. Taking charge of the cage will be referee Nick Berens, who is ready for what is about to come next. The Pennsylvanians touch gloves, and Petroski drifts back to move to the middle of the Octagon. Both men measure one another in opposing stances, and Berens warns them for outstretched fingers. When Petroski engages, he fires off a mean right hand that knocks Fremd to his seat. As Fremd climbs up to his feet, Petroski rushes at him and hits a clean double-leg takedown to land in a guillotine setup from his opponent. Petroski breaks out of the choke and quickly shifts over to side control, and Fremd frames off with an elbow and pounds it into Petroski’s nose to draw a trickle of blood out of the bridge of it. Petroski pays it no mind as he uses heavy chest pressure and hunts for a potential arm-triangle choke, only to bail on it when Fremd defends by turning to his side. Petroski resides on top, and the crowd starts booing his control while Berens mentions that Petroski should do more. Petroski answers by stepping over, in hopes of isolating Fremd’s left arm. Fremd twists and turns to not let Petroski set anything up, but the result is more ground control and little more. Petroski steps over to full mount as 80 seconds remain on the clock, and Fremd bucks like a bronco but cannot get the cowboy that trains out of Renzo Philly off of him. Petroski moves himself back to half guard to keep Fremd on his back, and he jams down a few elbows while otherwise grinding Fremd out. Petroski gets back to mount, and he smacks Fremd with a single elbow before Fremd turns around. Fremd gives his back up, and as the horn sounds, Petroski drills him behind the ear with a strike or two. Berens calls him on it, and the two go back to their corners.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Petroski
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Petroski
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Petroski
Round 2
Petroski is warned between rounds to avoid any late strikes, and when they begin, Petroski says hello to his opponent with a clubbing right that shakes Fremd up. Fremd responds with a body kick, and he dips back as Petroski clips him with a head kick. Fremd tries to reply with one of his own, and Petroski grabs hold of the leg and use it to dump Fremd to the mat. Petroski jumps on top, and the two continue moving until Petroski latches onto a guillotine choke. Fremd shifts to his knees to prevent the choke from succeeding, but this lets Petroski take his back. Petroski quickly relocates to full mount, and he starts hunting for an arm-triangle choke. Petroski clasps his hands together, and he uses his full body weight to press down while turning Fremd’s head a brilliant shade of red. Fremd gets a modicum of space as he punches Petroski in the side, and Petroski comfortably rests on top and lets the choke go. Fremd kicks him off, and Petroski is forced back to full guard. It does not take long for Petroski to jump into the half guard and employ another arm-triangle choke, and Fremd grits it out once more. Fremd scoots his way to the cage wall, and he throws his legs up in search of a desperate inverted triangle that transitions into an armbar. Petroski stays heavy on top until the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Petroski
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Petroski
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Petroski
Round 3
Petroski offers a glove touch to begin the final frame, and Fremd wants nothing to do with it. Instead, Fremd attacks, practically sprinting at his opponent with punches and leaping at him with a flying knee. Petroski backs himself to the wall, taking strikes from the pumped-up Fremd, but that offense quickly tapers off as Petroski shifts to the side and gets away. When Fremd gives chase, Petroski pursues a single-leg takedown and hits it to put Fremd down once more. The crowd, knowing what is about to come for the next three-plus minutes, starts booing. Petroski tries to shut some of those naysayers up by moving straight into full mount, and Fremd answers after eating one strike by turning around to give up his back. When Petroski starts fishing for a choke, Fremd turns over again, only for Petroski to be ready with an arm-triangle choke setup. Petroski lets it go when Fremd climbs his feet off the wall, and Fremd’s mad scramble after it gets hold of a quick inverted triangle choke again. Petroski breaks out of it and gets himself to side control in a hurry, and his attempt to isolate Fremd’s left arm begins. Petroski grinds his elbow on Fremd’s face while considering some armlock, but there is nothing to it as Berens calls for more action. Fremd explodes to turn to his side, and Petroski follows him as he twists to partially take Fremd’s back. Petroski smacks his foe on the sides of the head, and Fremd crawls to the fence and lean against it. Petroski pounds on him, and Fremd tugs on the fence in hopes of standing. Petroski hands on from behind with one hook in, and Fremd shakes his head in disappointment. The round ends as the audience rains down boos.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Petroski (30-27 Petroski)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Petroski (30-27 Petroski)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Petroski (30-27 Petroski)
The Official Result
Andre Petroski def. Josh Fremd via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Angelo picks Andre Petroski despite his two-fight losing streak and bizarre self-knockout in his last fight. He believes Petroski is the better fighter overall with superior wrestling, power, and speed. However, he acknowledges Josh Fremd's cardio advantage and the elevation factor, which could favor Fremd if he pressures early. Angelo warns against betting on this fight due to its unpredictability.
Cody picks Fremd, citing Petroski's poor cardio and tendency to fade. He notes Fremd's altitude training and generalist skills, and believes Fremd can survive the first round and take over. He expects a late finish or decision for Fremd.
Daniel Vreeland picks Josh Fremd but is hesitant. He notes that Fremd has been waiting for a big knockout and that Petroski is a front-runner who gasses when he can't dominate early. He thinks Fremd can weather the storm and take over. He mentions that Petroski wants a first-round KO to avoid going deep, which plays into Fremd's hands. He has bet on Fremd before and trusts him.
Josh Fremd is a pick 'em and worth a shot. He utilizes pressure and pace, which will come through against Petroski, who tends to slow down. If Fremd can survive the early onslaught from Petroski, he should start to grind and eventually find a finish in the third round.
Paul picks Fremd, citing Petroski's cardio issues and Fremd's altitude advantage. He notes Petroski's tendency to gas and believes Fremd's volume and durability will win the fight. He expects Fremd to win by decision or late stoppage.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roman Kopylov | 1 | 49 of 84 | 58% | 54 of 90 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Josh Fremd | 0 | 38 of 116 | 32% | 38 of 116 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:50 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roman Kopylov | 0 | 27 of 41 | 65% | 28 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Josh Fremd | 0 | 22 of 58 | 37% | 22 of 58 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:31 | |
| 2 | Roman Kopylov | 1 | 22 of 43 | 51% | 26 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Josh Fremd | 0 | 16 of 58 | 27% | 16 of 58 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:19 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roman Kopylov | 49 of 84 | 58% | 23 of 56 | 9 of 10 | 17 of 18 | 47 of 80 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Josh Fremd | 38 of 116 | 32% | 18 of 81 | 8 of 13 | 12 of 22 | 37 of 115 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roman Kopylov | 27 of 41 | 65% | 8 of 22 | 5 of 5 | 14 of 14 | 25 of 37 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Josh Fremd | 22 of 58 | 37% | 5 of 37 | 6 of 7 | 11 of 14 | 21 of 57 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Roman Kopylov | 22 of 43 | 51% | 15 of 34 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 4 | 22 of 43 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Josh Fremd | 16 of 58 | 27% | 13 of 44 | 2 of 6 | 1 of 8 | 16 of 58 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Kopylov (-355), Fremd (+280)
Round 1
Middleweights are next on the docket, as Kopylov (11-2, 3-2 UFC) tries to make it four wins in a row at 185 pounds. A Factory X representative, Fremd (11-4, 2-2 UFC) headlined multiple Legacy Fighting Alliance events prior to his signing with the UFC in 2022. Mark Smith answers the call as the third man in the cage. Fremd pumps out his jab from the start, eats a few leg kicks and scores with some shin to skin contact to the body. Kopylov continues to target the lead leg with kicks and seems content to allow the fight to come to him. A low blow from Fremd results in a brief pause before they resume their dance in the center of the cage. Fremd sneaks in front kick to the body and backs up the Russian with a multi-strike burst of hands and feet. Kopylov connects with a surgical two-punch combination. He seems to be getting more and more comfortable in the pocket. Fremd shoots on a single-leg but gets nowhere. Kopylov breaks away with punches, takes the center of the cage and uncorks his educated hands. He follows them with a kick to the body. Momentum is starting to turn here. Fremd shoots on another takedown attempt with 20 seconds left, only to get denied. Kopylov lands with a spinning backfist and an uppercut to close the round.
Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov
Round 2
Kopylov drives a left hand into the body, follows with an uppercut and goes back upstairs with his hands, knocking Fremd off-balance. Fremd paws with his jab and whiffs on a takedown, then eats a head kick. Damage has started to build on his face and his body. Kopylov denies a single-leg takedown, pushes away the American. Fremd’s mouth is wide open, likely due to difficulty breathing through a bloody nose. Kopylov picks his shots but catches another kick low. Smith pauses the action and issues another warning. Kopylov goes to the body and head with a beautiful combination. He backs away and narrowly misses a lunging right uppercut. A savage kick to the body forces Fremd to drop his hands. Kopylov wisely follows with a head kick.
A left hook to the liver drops Fremd to all fours and results in an immediate stoppage
.
The Official Result
Roman Kopylov def. Josh Fremd—KO (Punch to the Body) 4:44 R2
Angelo is very confident in Roman Kopylov, calling him the best value on the card at -275. He highlights Kopylov's high-level kickboxing and improved takedown defense. He dismisses Josh Fremd's grappling threat, noting Fremd struggled to take down Jamie Pickett. He believes Kopylov's striking is next level and Fremd cannot hang on the feet.
Big Brady likes Kopylov to win, citing his improved striking, durability, and body work. He notes Kopylov has been training in Dagestan to improve his wrestling and has looked better each fight. He expects Kopylov to stuff takedowns, break Fremd down with body shots, and finish him in the second or third round. He is less confident at the current minus 400 odds but still picks the win.
Cody picks Kopylov confidently, detailing his improved takedown defense after training in Dagestan. He notes Kopylov's durability, power, and recent finishes. He is concerned about Fremd's cardio and wrestling but believes Kopylov will win, possibly by knockout.
Daniel Levi picks Roman Kopylov but is not interested at the current odds of minus-410, as the line opened at minus-140. He praises Kopylov's clean hands, precise striking, and improved takedown defense, but notes that Josh Fremd has not yet shown his regional form in the UFC. Levi believes Kopylov will win but considers it a dog-or-pass situation at these prices.
Fremd is a Factory X product with improving grappling, cage pushing, and submission threats. Kopylov has cardio issues and has been slowing down in fights. Fremd should close the distance, wear on Kopylov with takedowns and clinch work, and potentially get a second or third round finish. I like the decision prop or a late finish for Fremd at plus 240.
Paul picks Kopylov but notes the minus 405 line is too high to bet. He acknowledges Kopylov's recent improvements in takedown defense and striking, and sees him as the clear winner. He mentions Fremd's recent weight miss and poor performance against Jamie Pickett.
The MMA Guru picks Roman Kopylov over Josh Fremd, stating Kopylov is at a different class. He praises Kopylov's recent performances, including a head kick KO of Claudio Ribeiro, and believes he has improved his wrestling. He criticizes Fremd's lack of power and ability to win a gritty fight. He predicts a late second or third round TKO for Kopylov.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Fremd | 0 | 31 of 80 | 38% | 59 of 109 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 2 | 1 | 7:15 |
| Jamie Pickett | 0 | 14 of 52 | 26% | 26 of 67 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 3:01 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Fremd | 0 | 11 of 29 | 37% | 23 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:31 |
| Jamie Pickett | 0 | 4 of 18 | 22% | 8 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:28 | |
| 2 | Josh Fremd | 0 | 13 of 31 | 41% | 17 of 35 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 2 | 0 | 1:51 |
| Jamie Pickett | 0 | 5 of 15 | 33% | 7 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:39 | |
| 3 | Josh Fremd | 0 | 7 of 20 | 35% | 19 of 33 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 2:53 |
| Jamie Pickett | 0 | 5 of 19 | 26% | 11 of 25 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:54 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Fremd | 31 of 80 | 38% | 11 of 49 | 10 of 18 | 10 of 13 | 22 of 64 | 6 of 11 | 3 of 5 |
| Jamie Pickett | 14 of 52 | 26% | 4 of 31 | 6 of 16 | 4 of 5 | 11 of 45 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Fremd | 11 of 29 | 37% | 2 of 17 | 3 of 5 | 6 of 7 | 9 of 25 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Jamie Pickett | 4 of 18 | 22% | 0 of 9 | 2 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 15 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Josh Fremd | 13 of 31 | 41% | 7 of 20 | 4 of 7 | 2 of 4 | 7 of 22 | 3 of 4 | 3 of 5 |
| Jamie Pickett | 5 of 15 | 33% | 1 of 8 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 3 | 5 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Josh Fremd | 7 of 20 | 35% | 2 of 12 | 3 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 17 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Jamie Pickett | 5 of 19 | 26% | 3 of 14 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 15 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Fremd, citing his improving grappling and athleticism. He notes Pickett is a solid striker but gun-shy and has poor takedown defense. He expects Fremd to wrestle and grind out a win.
Big Brady picks Josh Fremd to win by submission in the second round. He believes Fremd has Pickett covered in every aspect, noting Pickett's three-fight skid and poor durability. He mentions Fremd's power and submission game, and says Fremd can win by decision, knockout, or submission. He is not laying -325 but is confident Fremd gets it done.
Cody picks Fremd, citing his wrestling background, cardio, and improvement. He notes Fremd's competitive fight against Fluffy Hernandez and his submission win over Cedric Dumas. He criticizes Pickett's three-fight losing streak and lack of UFC-level skills. He thinks Fremd's wrestling and grappling advantage will be too much, and that Pickett's job is on the line but he doesn't see a path to victory.
James picks Fremd but is not confident, calling it a 'bad fight' and not his type. He thinks Fremd should win but notes Pickett is tough, long, and strong in the clinch. He believes the line at -350 is too wide and should be around -250. He likely won't bet it.
Fremd showed a relentless wrestling style in his last fight, but he is a heavy favorite at -350 against a guy on a three-fight losing streak. Pickett relies on physical traits but is not great technically. Fremd's wrestling and pace should be too much, but trusting him at such a short price is risky given his limited sample size. Fremd should grind out a decision.
Paul picks Fremd, agreeing that Pickett doesn't belong in the UFC. He notes Fremd's submission skills and ability to get dominant positions. He thinks Fremd will likely win by submission. He considered Pickett at plus money but after digging, concluded Pickett is just not good enough.
The MMA Guru picks Josh Fremd over Jamie Pickett, noting Fremd's losses to Anthony Hernandez (who is doing that to everyone) and Tresean Gore (a nasty guillotine). He believes Fremd is more well-rounded with grappling and striking, and that Pickett tends to fade in fights. He thinks Fremd's potential and size advantage will lead to a win, possibly ending Pickett's UFC career.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Fremd | 0 | 20 of 44 | 45% | 23 of 47 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 0:07 |
| Sedriques Dumas | 0 | 33 of 61 | 54% | 48 of 78 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 2 | 1 | 4:27 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Fremd | 0 | 14 of 30 | 46% | 17 of 33 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sedriques Dumas | 0 | 27 of 50 | 54% | 33 of 58 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 2:41 | |
| 2 | Josh Fremd | 0 | 6 of 14 | 42% | 6 of 14 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:07 |
| Sedriques Dumas | 0 | 6 of 11 | 54% | 15 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 1 | 1:46 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Fremd | 20 of 44 | 45% | 8 of 26 | 2 of 5 | 10 of 13 | 19 of 43 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Sedriques Dumas | 33 of 61 | 54% | 21 of 48 | 6 of 7 | 6 of 6 | 27 of 55 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Fremd | 14 of 30 | 46% | 7 of 20 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 8 | 13 of 29 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Sedriques Dumas | 27 of 50 | 54% | 16 of 38 | 5 of 6 | 6 of 6 | 21 of 44 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 2 | |
| 2 | Josh Fremd | 6 of 14 | 42% | 1 of 6 | 1 of 3 | 4 of 5 | 6 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sedriques Dumas | 6 of 11 | 54% | 5 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Dumas (-180), Fremd (+155)
Round 1
A finish is not guaranteed but highly likely in this middleweight clash. The debuting and much-maligned Dumas (7-0, 0-0 UFC) will try to hand Fremd (9-4, 0-2 UFC) his third loss in three UFC tries, as these towering 185ers duke it out. Referee Chris Tognoni may have his hands full when these two get after it, and there is no glove touch to clock them in. Fremd walks straight into a leg kick, and he picks his leg up as if to throw one back, but there is none to come. Dumas chops at the lead leg again, and Fremd responds in kind. Dumas swings a right hand over the top to sting Fremd, and he follows a low kick with it. Fremd shakes it out, and he blocks a head kick just in the nick of time. They score with alternating low kicks, and then trade jabs. Fremd sits down on a low kick, and Dumas charges with an overhand right that zips past his foe’s face. Fremd ducks a punch and blocks a head kick, and he loads up on counters that do not successfully land. Fremd gets off another few low kicks, and Dumas cracks him with a right. Fremd replies with his own left hook, rocking the undefeated fighter, and allow him to change levels for a double. Fremd scoops “The Reaper” off his feet and drops him flat on his back, taking side control instead of trying to force a finish. Fremd hangs on from on top, and as Dumas signals to Tognoni for a standup, Fremd slashes down with an elbow. Fremd gets dragged back to the closed guard, and he slides his legs higher for a potential triangle choke setup. Fremd comfortable holds on until Dumas sits up, and Dumas’ neck is in a precarious position as Fremd laches on to a guillotine choke. The newcomer slides his head out, and he wings a high kick that glances off the shoulder. Fremd takes a few punches on the chin and turns the tables to sting Dumas again, and Dumas finds himself pursuing a takedown after getting hurt. Fremd stops this in its tracks and shoves him to the wire, and he lifts up a knee to the side. Dumas tries to throw knees up the middle, and Fremd replies with a jump knee and lands a blow after the bell. Fremd immediately apologizes, and there is no bad blood from it.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Fremd
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Fremd
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Fremd
Round 2
The second round begins with a deceptively cautious Dumas, as he tosses out a body kick, avoids a counter, and suddenly springs into action with a chain of reaching punches. Fremd side-steps them and blocks the head for a follow-up kick, and he sticks out a few jabs. Fremd measures a right hand around the guard to rock “The Reaper,” and he secures a high hip toss to slam Dumas to his back. Fremd jumps straight into half guard, and he starts to drop down some ground strikes. Dumas recovers to the full guard and gets struck in the back of the head, to which Tognoni notices and warns Fremd. Fremd sneaks back to half guard and controls his man from above, and Dumas scrambles wildly to get up. Dumas searches for a back take and tries to go after a rear-naked choke, but he falls over the top and lands on his seat.
Fremd jumps on top to replicate Jon Jones’ seated guillotine choke that landed last week on Ciryl Gane, but he releases the grip to punch Dumas upside the head a few times. Seeing that the choke is still there, Fremd locks down the guillotine and squeezes with all his might. Shocked like Gane was, Dumas instantly taps, as the pressure is too much to bear.
Fremd has now won his first fight in the UFC, doing so by knocking off an unbeaten fighter with plenty of momentum behind him.
The Official Result
Josh Fremd def. Sedriques Dumas R2 3:00 via Submission (Guillotine Choke)
Angelo sees Sedriques Dumas as a well-rounded fighter with solid hands, kickboxing, and takedowns, mixing his attacks effectively. He notes Dumas is composed for a 27-year-old with only seven fights and believes the UFC is giving him Josh Fremd to push him. He acknowledges the risk of betting on a UFC debut with a street-fighting past but is confident in Dumas's potential.
Big Brady picks Sedriques Dumas, liking his build, power, and grappling. He notes Dumas has dangerous transitions on the ground and can lock up submissions. However, he questions Dumas's level of competition and says he doesn't want to bet on the fight. Brady predicts Dumas will get the fight to the mat and find a first-round submission.
Cody picks Fremd but is not confident, noting Fremd's short notice and recent submission loss. He thinks Fremd has a cardio and striking advantage but may not trust him with money.
Connor leans toward Dumas due to his physicality and athleticism, but acknowledges he is a very raw and messy fighter. He notes that Dumas has natural power and can finish fights, but his technique is poor and he could be exposed by a grinder like Fremd. He is not confident in the pick.
I think Dumas has the grappling advantage and should be able to submit Fremd, who has shown vulnerability to submissions. However, Dumas is untested at this level, and Fremd is a decent all-around fighter. I'm not confident enough to bet Dumas as a favorite, but I expect him to get his hand raised, likely by submission.
Paul picks Fremd as an underdog, noting Dumas' lack of high-level competition and Fremd's durability and cardio. He thinks Fremd can outwork Dumas and calls Dumas a potential parlay killer.
The MMA Guru picks Sedriques Dumas, calling him dangerous. He notes Dumas has a wicked guillotine and good striking, while Josh Fremd took the fight on short notice and has been finished before. He predicts Dumas will hurt Fremd on the feet and latch up a guillotine for a first-round finish.
Zane also leans toward Dumas but is very uncertain. He notes that Dumas is athletic and powerful but unschooled, while Fremd is a limited but tough grinder. He thinks Dumas's physicality might be enough, but Fremd could outwrestle him. He calls the fight a mess and advises against betting.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tresean Gore | 0 | 24 of 54 | 44% | 27 of 57 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:39 |
| Josh Fremd | 0 | 10 of 20 | 50% | 14 of 25 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 1 | 0 | 2:46 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tresean Gore | 0 | 18 of 40 | 45% | 21 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:30 |
| Josh Fremd | 0 | 8 of 14 | 57% | 12 of 19 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 2:36 | |
| 2 | Tresean Gore | 0 | 6 of 14 | 42% | 6 of 14 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
| Josh Fremd | 0 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 2 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:10 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tresean Gore | 24 of 54 | 44% | 8 of 35 | 11 of 14 | 5 of 5 | 20 of 47 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Josh Fremd | 10 of 20 | 50% | 7 of 14 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 4 | 9 of 15 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tresean Gore | 18 of 40 | 45% | 4 of 24 | 10 of 12 | 4 of 4 | 14 of 33 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Josh Fremd | 8 of 14 | 57% | 6 of 9 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 3 | 7 of 9 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Tresean Gore | 6 of 14 | 42% | 4 of 11 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Josh Fremd | 2 of 6 | 33% | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Josh Fremd to win by first-round knockout. He notes that Fremd is a dangerous finisher with power and size, while Gore has looked hesitant and been knocked out by Cody Brundage. He acknowledges that Fremd is hittable and Gore has power, but trusts Fremd's aggression and finishing ability more.
Cody picks Josh Fremd, citing his wrestling base, size (6'4"), and solid regional wins. He notes Fremd's competitive performance against Anthony Hernandez on short notice and believes a full camp will benefit him. Cody criticizes Tresean Gore's inexperience, poor performance against Bryan Battle, and lack of volume. He also likes Fremd by submission at +900 as a sprinkle.
Daniel Levi is confident in Josh Fremd, citing his experience, size (6'4"), and paid dues on the regional scene. He views Gore as too green and immature, lacking seasoning despite athleticism. He bet Fremd at -170 for 2 units and plans to add more as the line improved. He expects Fremd to win via experience and possibly a finish.
Jacob picks Josh Fremd, citing his wrestling and ability to withstand Gore's striking. He notes Gore is 0-2 and may fight for his life, but until Gore proves himself, Jacob defaults to Fremd. He is cautious and not confident in betting.
Gore has speed and power advantages, and his move to Fortis MMA should improve his game. However, he was flatlined in his last fight, which raises durability concerns. Fremd is more complete but Gore's takedown defense and power could lead to a knockout. The under 2.5 rounds or fight doesn't go to decision are safer plays. Gore by knockout at +330 is a tempting prop.
Paul also picks Josh Fremd, highlighting his experience, pace, and pressure. He notes that Fremd has never fought someone with a losing record and has shown improvements. Paul is critical of Gore's learning on the job and lack of recent power, and expects Fremd to tire Gore out and get the victory.
The MMA Guru picks Josh Fremd over Tresean Gore, citing Fremd's underrated grappling and experience. He notes Gore's lack of readiness, having been finished by Cody Brundage and outhustled by Bryan Battle. Fremd held his own against Anthony Hernandez on short notice, and the Guru believes Fremd's size and reach advantage will help him deal with Gore's power, predicting a second-round submission via guillotine choke.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Hernandez | 0 | 48 of 71 | 67% | 91 of 124 | 8 of 11 | 72% | 3 | 0 | 10:45 |
| Josh Fremd | 0 | 31 of 54 | 57% | 43 of 67 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 1 | 2:37 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Anthony Hernandez | 0 | 17 of 31 | 54% | 26 of 44 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 1 | 0 | 4:12 |
| Josh Fremd | 0 | 16 of 30 | 53% | 22 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Anthony Hernandez | 0 | 13 of 17 | 76% | 25 of 31 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 1:42 |
| Josh Fremd | 0 | 13 of 20 | 65% | 16 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 1 | 2:37 | |
| 3 | Anthony Hernandez | 0 | 18 of 23 | 78% | 40 of 49 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 4:51 |
| Josh Fremd | 0 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Hernandez | 48 of 71 | 67% | 39 of 62 | 8 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 25 | 5 of 9 | 34 of 37 |
| Josh Fremd | 31 of 54 | 57% | 16 of 37 | 13 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 15 of 35 | 12 of 14 | 4 of 5 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Anthony Hernandez | 17 of 31 | 54% | 13 of 27 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 17 | 4 of 8 | 6 of 6 |
| Josh Fremd | 16 of 30 | 53% | 7 of 20 | 7 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 21 | 6 of 8 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Anthony Hernandez | 13 of 17 | 76% | 11 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 11 |
| Josh Fremd | 13 of 20 | 65% | 8 of 14 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 12 | 5 of 5 | 2 of 3 | |
| 3 | Anthony Hernandez | 18 of 23 | 78% | 15 of 20 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 17 of 20 |
| Josh Fremd | 2 of 4 | 50% | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
Angelo gives a slight edge to Anthony Hernandez due to his UFC experience and better pure BJJ. He acknowledges Josh Fremd's athleticism and potential, but notes the short notice and nerves for Fremd. He calls Fremd one of the most live underdogs on the card.
Big Brady picks Anthony Hernandez to win by second-round submission. He expects Fremd to land big shots early but Hernandez to take over with pace and cardio, eventually finishing Fremd. He notes Hernandez's submission game is very good, having submitted Rodolfo Vieira, and that Fremd is coming in on short notice.
Cody leans towards Fremd as an underdog, thinking the price is wrong. He notes Fremd's wrestling, cardio, and cleaner striking, and that Hernandez has been inactive and has a questionable chin. Cody acknowledges Fremd got knocked out by Rodrigues but thinks he can outwork Hernandez. He signs up for Fremd as a low-confidence dog.
Levi praises Josh Fremd's offensive skills (calf kicks, jab, knees) and size, but criticizes his tall man's defense and tendency to get dropped. He likes Anthony Hernandez's experience, toughness, and submission game (guillotine, d'arce). He thinks Hernandez can capitalize on Fremd's defensive openings but is not crazy about laying -200, so he passes on betting.
I love Hernandez as a prospect; he reminds me of a prime Cain Velasquez with pressure and grappling. I think he will push the pace from the start, land takedowns, and get a finish via ground and pound or submission. The fight not going to decision is one of my favorite lines. I see him getting his hand raised inside the distance.
Paul passes on this fight, saying it terrifies him too much. He notes Hernandez's submission win over Vieira was due to fatigue, and that Fremd got knocked out by Gregory Rodrigues. Paul doesn't like Hernandez at -200 and doesn't see enough in Fremd to bet. He considers the under but doesn't commit.
The MMA Guru picks Anthony Hernandez, noting that Josh Fremd is on short notice. He expects Fremd to start well but fade, with Hernandez getting a third-round submission or TKO. He highlights Hernandez's toughness and ability to survive dangerous positions.
Expert Picks (7)
Angelo gives a slight edge to Anthony Hernandez due to his UFC experience and better pure BJJ. He acknowledges Josh Fremd's athleticism and potential, but notes the short notice and nerves for Fremd. He calls Fremd one of the most live underdogs on the card.
Big Brady picks Anthony Hernandez to win by second-round submission. He expects Fremd to land big shots early but Hernandez to take over with pace and cardio, eventually finishing Fremd. He notes Hernandez's submission game is very good, having submitted Rodolfo Vieira, and that Fremd is coming in on short notice.
Cody leans towards Fremd as an underdog, thinking the price is wrong. He notes Fremd's wrestling, cardio, and cleaner striking, and that Hernandez has been inactive and has a questionable chin. Cody acknowledges Fremd got knocked out by Rodrigues but thinks he can outwork Hernandez. He signs up for Fremd as a low-confidence dog.
Levi praises Josh Fremd's offensive skills (calf kicks, jab, knees) and size, but criticizes his tall man's defense and tendency to get dropped. He likes Anthony Hernandez's experience, toughness, and submission game (guillotine, d'arce). He thinks Hernandez can capitalize on Fremd's defensive openings but is not crazy about laying -200, so he passes on betting.
I love Hernandez as a prospect; he reminds me of a prime Cain Velasquez with pressure and grappling. I think he will push the pace from the start, land takedowns, and get a finish via ground and pound or submission. The fight not going to decision is one of my favorite lines. I see him getting his hand raised inside the distance.
Paul passes on this fight, saying it terrifies him too much. He notes Hernandez's submission win over Vieira was due to fatigue, and that Fremd got knocked out by Gregory Rodrigues. Paul doesn't like Hernandez at -200 and doesn't see enough in Fremd to bet. He considers the under but doesn't commit.
The MMA Guru picks Anthony Hernandez, noting that Josh Fremd is on short notice. He expects Fremd to start well but fade, with Hernandez getting a third-round submission or TKO. He highlights Hernandez's toughness and ability to survive dangerous positions.
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