Career Averages - Lerone Murphy
Career Averages - Makwan Amirkhani
Lerone Murphy
Makwan Amirkhani
Lerone Murphy - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Movsar Evloev | 0 | 86 of 189 | 45% | 124 of 234 | 9 of 10 | 90% | 0 | 0 | 3:54 |
| Lerone Murphy | 0 | 89 of 239 | 37% | 89 of 239 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Movsar Evloev | 0 | 11 of 31 | 35% | 11 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Lerone Murphy | 0 | 14 of 49 | 28% | 14 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Movsar Evloev | 0 | 17 of 37 | 45% | 17 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Lerone Murphy | 0 | 24 of 57 | 42% | 24 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Movsar Evloev | 0 | 25 of 50 | 50% | 26 of 52 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Lerone Murphy | 0 | 23 of 48 | 47% | 23 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Movsar Evloev | 0 | 21 of 35 | 60% | 30 of 45 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 1:19 |
| Lerone Murphy | 0 | 16 of 39 | 41% | 16 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Movsar Evloev | 0 | 12 of 36 | 33% | 40 of 69 | 5 of 5 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:12 |
| Lerone Murphy | 0 | 12 of 46 | 26% | 12 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Movsar Evloev | 86 of 189 | 45% | 47 of 134 | 33 of 44 | 6 of 11 | 80 of 178 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 9 |
| Lerone Murphy | 89 of 239 | 37% | 45 of 175 | 24 of 38 | 20 of 26 | 89 of 238 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Movsar Evloev | 11 of 31 | 35% | 3 of 21 | 6 of 7 | 2 of 3 | 11 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Lerone Murphy | 14 of 49 | 28% | 6 of 35 | 4 of 8 | 4 of 6 | 14 of 49 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Movsar Evloev | 17 of 37 | 45% | 9 of 24 | 7 of 11 | 1 of 2 | 17 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Lerone Murphy | 24 of 57 | 42% | 12 of 41 | 7 of 10 | 5 of 6 | 24 of 57 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Movsar Evloev | 25 of 50 | 50% | 12 of 34 | 11 of 13 | 2 of 3 | 25 of 50 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Lerone Murphy | 23 of 48 | 47% | 12 of 35 | 8 of 9 | 3 of 4 | 23 of 48 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Movsar Evloev | 21 of 35 | 60% | 16 of 29 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 15 of 25 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 8 |
| Lerone Murphy | 16 of 39 | 41% | 6 of 24 | 5 of 8 | 5 of 7 | 16 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Movsar Evloev | 12 of 36 | 33% | 7 of 26 | 4 of 8 | 1 of 2 | 12 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
| Lerone Murphy | 12 of 46 | 26% | 9 of 40 | 0 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 12 of 45 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Lerone Murphy because he is the better overall fighter with superior striking and scrambling ability. He notes Movsar Evloev is a boring wrestler who doesn't do damage or seek finishes. He believes Murphy can scramble back to his feet and win rounds with striking, especially with English judges. He bet a small amount on Murphy at +220.
Big Brady confidently picks Movsar Evloev, citing his wrestling advantage and Murphy's poor takedown defense (51%). He notes that Murphy has been taken down multiple times by various opponents, including Gabriel Santos (five times). He thinks Evloev's striking is underrated and that he will mix in takedowns to win a decision. He also mentions that Evloev has had a layoff and visa issues but expects the best version of him.
Cody sees value in Murphy as a plus-money underdog, citing Evloev's cardio issues in five-round fights and Murphy's ability to scramble and land strikes. He expects Murphy to win a decision or late stoppage.
Connor agrees with Zane that Evloev is the right pick due to Murphy's poor takedown defense, but he is more hesitant because of the five-round factor. He notes that Murphy is impossible to break with pace and pressure, and Evloev has never fought five rounds. Connor points to the Arnold Allen fight where Evloev struggled when takedowns stopped working, and suggests Murphy could get a read on Evloev's entries in later rounds. However, he ultimately picks Evloev because Murphy's takedown defense is worse than Allen's and Evloev is a good takedown artist who maintains position.
Daniel Vreeland picks Movsar Evloev to win by unanimous decision. He believes Evloev will dominate the first two rounds with takedowns, but Murphy will rally in rounds 3 and 4. However, Evloev will regain control in the fifth round to secure a 48-47 decision.
Daniel leans Evloev as a pure pick, citing his elite athleticism and takedown numbers. He acknowledges Murphy's resilience and gritty comebacks but thinks Evloev can secure a takedown in the fifth round if it's close. He notes Evloev doesn't finish fights and Murphy is hard to put away.
Evloev's wrestling should be the difference, but Murphy's home advantage and ability to get up make it less certain. Evloev may struggle to hold Murphy down, but his chain wrestling and volume striking could win rounds. On neutral territory, Evloev wins easily; in London, it's closer.
James picks Movsar Evloev to win via decision, citing Evloev's relentless pressure, volume takedowns, and cardio over 25 minutes. He notes that Lerone Murphy has historically struggled with grapplers who shoot volume takedowns, as seen in fights against Zubaira Tukhugov and Gabriel Santos. James also mentions that Murphy's takedown defense is poor, though he has good get-ups. He considers the layoff and illness for Evloev but still favors him.
The host is confident in Movsar Evloev winning by decision. He highlights Evloev's superior grappling, cardio, and pressure, while Murphy is seen as well-rounded but likely to be worn down by takedowns and mat returns. He expects Evloev to dictate the fight on the ground and win decisively on the scorecards.
Paul thinks Evloev will get takedowns repeatedly and grind out a decision, though he acknowledges the risk of home cooking for Murphy. He's confident Evloev wins but not betting heavily.
The MMA Guru picks Movsar Evloev to win by fourth or fifth round finish. He notes Murphy has been taken down easily by lesser wrestlers and Evloev's grappling is elite. He believes Evloev will ragdoll Murphy and eventually find a finish as Murphy tires. He also mentions Evloev's improved physique and that Murphy lacks finishing power.
Zane picks Evloev based on Murphy's poor takedown defense (51% in UFC) and Evloev's consistent wrestling and top control. He notes that while Murphy is a good scrambler and learns during fights, Evloev's relentless pressure and ability to win scrambles will likely overwhelm Murphy over three rounds. Zane acknowledges the five-round question but believes Evloev's gas tank is fine, though his lack of adaptability could be an issue if Murphy figures out his entries late.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lerone Murphy | 1 | 8 of 16 | 50% | 8 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Aaron Pico | 0 | 13 of 29 | 44% | 13 of 30 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 2:01 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lerone Murphy | 1 | 8 of 16 | 50% | 8 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Aaron Pico | 0 | 13 of 29 | 44% | 13 of 30 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 2:01 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lerone Murphy | 8 of 16 | 50% | 4 of 9 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 6 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Aaron Pico | 13 of 29 | 44% | 7 of 23 | 5 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 21 | 3 of 5 | 3 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lerone Murphy | 8 of 16 | 50% | 4 of 9 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 6 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Aaron Pico | 13 of 29 | 44% | 7 of 23 | 5 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 21 | 3 of 5 | 3 of 3 |
Angelo highlights Pico's wrestling and boxing credentials, believing his wrestling will be too much for Murphy. He acknowledges Murphy's technical striking but thinks Pico is more well-rounded and determined now. He compares Pico's potential impact to Kayla Harrison's debut.
Big Brady picks Lerone Murphy to win by decision. He is impressed by Aaron Pico's power and wrestling but questions his competition level. He notes Murphy is undefeated in the UFC with wins over Josh Emmett, Dan Ige, and Edson Barboza. He worries about Murphy's takedown defense but thinks his get-up game is good. He sees this as a 'prove it' spot for Pico and favors Murphy's experience.
Connor picks Murphy, emphasizing that Murphy is a massive step up in competition for Pico, who has never faced an athlete of Murphy's size, speed, and durability. He notes that Murphy is battle-tested against UFC featherweights and has never lost to a higher level of competition, while Pico's wins are against older or less skilled opponents. Connor believes Murphy's durability and problem-solving skills will allow him to weather Pico's early wrestling and take over as the fight progresses, potentially finishing him.
The host believes Pico will remind everyone he is a high-level prospect and deserving of a top-10 ranking. He thinks Murphy taking the fight on short notice is a disadvantage, and expects Pico to control the fight both on the feet and on the ground, grinding out a decision win.
The Guru picks Lerone Murphy over Aaron Pico, citing Murphy's superior technical skills, footwork, and fight IQ. He believes Pico's power and wrestling are threats, but Murphy's counter-grappling and ability to avoid big shots will be key. The Guru notes that Pico has been knocked out before and that Murphy is undefeated in the UFC with experience against dangerous opponents. He also mentions that the betting odds favoring Pico are off, making Murphy a value pick.
Zane picks Murphy, arguing that Pico has never faced an athlete of Murphy's caliber and that Murphy's durability and resourcefulness will be key. He notes that Murphy has poor takedown defense but has never lost a fight due to it, as he figures out opponents as the fight goes on. Zane believes Pico's wrestling is violence-focused and that Murphy will get chances to get back up and land a fight-ending shot, as Pico has been finished before.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Emmett | 0 | 41 of 143 | 28% | 44 of 149 | 4 of 11 | 36% | 0 | 0 | 3:39 |
| Lerone Murphy | 0 | 84 of 157 | 53% | 117 of 195 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Emmett | 0 | 10 of 28 | 35% | 10 of 28 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Lerone Murphy | 0 | 10 of 24 | 41% | 11 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Josh Emmett | 0 | 2 of 8 | 25% | 3 of 11 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 1:50 |
| Lerone Murphy | 0 | 13 of 21 | 61% | 26 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 | |
| 3 | Josh Emmett | 0 | 5 of 25 | 20% | 7 of 28 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:01 |
| Lerone Murphy | 0 | 21 of 36 | 58% | 33 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Josh Emmett | 0 | 13 of 38 | 34% | 13 of 38 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:28 |
| Lerone Murphy | 0 | 22 of 41 | 53% | 26 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Josh Emmett | 0 | 11 of 44 | 25% | 11 of 44 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Lerone Murphy | 0 | 18 of 35 | 51% | 21 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Emmett | 41 of 143 | 28% | 29 of 124 | 6 of 11 | 6 of 8 | 40 of 133 | 1 of 7 | 0 of 3 |
| Lerone Murphy | 84 of 157 | 53% | 37 of 90 | 17 of 30 | 30 of 37 | 75 of 148 | 9 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Emmett | 10 of 28 | 35% | 6 of 23 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 26 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 |
| Lerone Murphy | 10 of 24 | 41% | 5 of 16 | 3 of 5 | 2 of 3 | 10 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Josh Emmett | 2 of 8 | 25% | 1 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 |
| Lerone Murphy | 13 of 21 | 61% | 2 of 7 | 6 of 9 | 5 of 5 | 9 of 17 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Josh Emmett | 5 of 25 | 20% | 3 of 19 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 2 | 5 of 22 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 1 |
| Lerone Murphy | 21 of 36 | 58% | 11 of 24 | 3 of 4 | 7 of 8 | 16 of 31 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Josh Emmett | 13 of 38 | 34% | 9 of 34 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 12 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Lerone Murphy | 22 of 41 | 53% | 9 of 22 | 4 of 7 | 9 of 12 | 22 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Josh Emmett | 11 of 44 | 25% | 10 of 41 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 42 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Lerone Murphy | 18 of 35 | 51% | 10 of 21 | 1 of 5 | 7 of 9 | 18 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Lerone Murphy as the overall better fighter, more technical and cleaner. He notes Murphy moves well, has power, and scrambles well after takedowns. He acknowledges Josh Emmett has power and wrestling but doesn't use his wrestling often. Angelo is concerned about Murphy being dropped by Dan Ige but believes Murphy can fight a perfect fight for 25 minutes. He picks Murphy despite the steep odds.
Big Brady picks Lerone Murphy, noting his career-best performance against Edson Barboza and 25-minute cardio. He believes Josh Emmett, at 40 and on a layoff, is unlikely to win three rounds and will need an early KO. He expects Murphy to outwork Emmett and win a decision.
Connor picks Emmett, citing Murphy's history of giving opponents chances to land huge shots and his tendency to adjust mid-fight rather than prepare. He compares Emmett to Dan Henderson for his simple, powerful game and notes that Murphy's worst round is always the first, where he often has no plan. Connor trusts that Emmett's power and persistence will catch Murphy, especially given Murphy's vulnerability to being hurt.
Murphy is the better fighter and closer to his prime. He will start to pull away in the third and fourth rounds, mixing up his clinch game, wrestling, and technical striking to evade Emmett's power, winning on the scorecards.
The Guru picks Lerone Murphy after changing his mind upon rewatching Emmett fights. He argues Murphy's consistent decision wins show he is reliably better, while Emmett relies on KO power that is sporadic. He notes Emmett's age (40), long layoff, and accumulated damage, and believes Murphy's range, volume, and game-planning will allow him to outwork Emmett over five rounds. He predicts a decision win or a late finish.
Zane picks Murphy because he sees many ways for Murphy to win—using range, kicks, and avoiding overextension—while Emmett's path is narrow: a single big shot. He notes Murphy's adaptability and recovery, but acknowledges his tendency to start slow and make mistakes, which could be fatal against Emmett's power. Zane believes Murphy can avoid the one mistake that costs him the fight, given Emmett's predictable offense.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lerone Murphy | 0 | 52 of 100 | 52% | 78 of 133 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 2:17 |
| Dan Ige | 1 | 46 of 106 | 43% | 52 of 116 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 2 | 4:47 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lerone Murphy | 0 | 17 of 32 | 53% | 18 of 33 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:22 |
| Dan Ige | 1 | 32 of 60 | 53% | 32 of 61 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 1:30 | |
| 2 | Lerone Murphy | 0 | 19 of 42 | 45% | 36 of 61 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:57 |
| Dan Ige | 0 | 11 of 29 | 37% | 12 of 31 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 0:43 | |
| 3 | Lerone Murphy | 0 | 16 of 26 | 61% | 24 of 39 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:58 |
| Dan Ige | 0 | 3 of 17 | 17% | 8 of 24 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:34 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lerone Murphy | 52 of 100 | 52% | 36 of 77 | 12 of 17 | 4 of 6 | 37 of 80 | 12 of 16 | 3 of 4 |
| Dan Ige | 46 of 106 | 43% | 35 of 92 | 5 of 8 | 6 of 6 | 32 of 79 | 6 of 16 | 8 of 11 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lerone Murphy | 17 of 32 | 53% | 11 of 23 | 4 of 5 | 2 of 4 | 14 of 28 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Dan Ige | 32 of 60 | 53% | 27 of 53 | 2 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 19 of 39 | 5 of 11 | 8 of 10 | |
| 2 | Lerone Murphy | 19 of 42 | 45% | 12 of 31 | 6 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 16 of 36 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 1 |
| Dan Ige | 11 of 29 | 37% | 5 of 22 | 3 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 10 of 28 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Lerone Murphy | 16 of 26 | 61% | 13 of 23 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 16 | 6 of 7 | 3 of 3 |
| Dan Ige | 3 of 17 | 17% | 3 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 12 | 0 of 4 | 0 of 1 |
Angelo picks Lerone Murphy confidently. He praises Murphy's striking, footwork, and power, and believes he is too clean a striker for Dan Ige. He thinks Murphy's ability to mix striking and wrestling will keep Ige guessing. He also notes both fighters are tough and expects the over 2.5 rounds to be solid.
Big Brady likes Murphy in this fight, believing he has more paths to win and is better everywhere. He praises Murphy's striking in his last fight against Edson Barboza and notes that Murphy can mix in takedowns, while Ige has shown he can be taken down and controlled. He predicts Murphy will win by decision, doing better work on the feet and mixing in occasional takedowns.
Cody picks Lerone Murphy, citing his well-rounded skills, reach advantage, and recent win over Edson Barboza. He notes that Ige is undersized, has poor takedown defense, and relies on power that may not translate against a longer, more technical striker. Cody believes Murphy's volume and precision will overwhelm Ige, and that Murphy can mix in takedowns if needed.
Connor picks Murphy, emphasizing that Ige struggles when forced to lead and lacks range tools. Murphy's jab and footwork can keep Ige at distance, and his size and reach advantage should allow him to control the fight. Connor notes that Ige is dangerous in the pocket but Murphy can avoid that by fighting at range.
Daniel Vreeland picks Lerone Murphy to win by decision, highlighting Murphy's volume striking and top-five potential. He notes that Murphy out-landed Edson Barboza with 220 significant strikes over five rounds and that Ige's toughness and power are his main advantages. Vreeland believes Murphy's skill set and minute-winning ability will carry him to a clear decision win.
Lucrative James picks Lerone Murphy to win, citing Murphy's superior technical striking, fight IQ, and grappling upside. He believes Murphy is the better all-around fighter and can win via striking or takedowns. He acknowledges Ige's power and experience but thinks Murphy's calculated approach will prevail. He expects Murphy to look good and possibly call for a title shot.
Murphy is the better overall fighter with slicker striking and more damaging offense on the feet. He can also grind Ige out in clinch positions and take him down. Ige's boxing will be muzzled by Murphy's superior athleticism. Murphy wins on the scorecards.
Paul picks Murphy, emphasizing his reach advantage and superior striking. He notes that Ige struggles against bigger fighters and has never landed over 88 significant strikes in a fight. Paul believes Murphy's length and technical boxing will keep Ige at range, and that Murphy's takedown defense has improved. He also mentions that Ige's wrestling is not a threat.
The Guru picks Lerone Murphy by decision, arguing that Murphy's technical, well-rounded style is a bad matchup for Dan Ige. He notes that Ige struggles against fighters who can mix in grappling and fight at range, and that Murphy's jab, low kicks, and clinch work will outpoint Ige. He compares Murphy to fighters like Calvin Kattar and Movsar Evloev who have beaten Ige with technical breakdowns. The Guru acknowledges Ige's power but believes Murphy's discipline will earn a 29-28 decision.
Zane agrees with Connor, noting that Ige is a counter puncher who struggles when forced to lead. Murphy's jab and range management should neutralize Ige's offense. Zane points to Ige's losses to fighters who kept him at range and thinks Murphy can replicate that.
Zane expected Murphy to win but noted he took the hardest path, getting caught early by a huge counter due to overstepping. He credited Murphy's durability and conditioning for bouncing back and winning. Zane emphasized that Ige is a dangerous pocket fighter with a great chin, but Murphy minded the pocket and won scrambles to secure the win.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lerone Murphy | 0 | 79 of 242 | 32% | 79 of 242 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
| Edson Barboza | 0 | 220 of 364 | 60% | 259 of 410 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 5:19 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lerone Murphy | 0 | 25 of 53 | 47% | 25 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Edson Barboza | 0 | 34 of 62 | 54% | 38 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:14 | |
| 2 | Lerone Murphy | 0 | 17 of 44 | 38% | 17 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Edson Barboza | 0 | 41 of 75 | 54% | 56 of 93 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:26 | |
| 3 | Lerone Murphy | 0 | 11 of 42 | 26% | 11 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
| Edson Barboza | 0 | 48 of 79 | 60% | 52 of 86 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:25 | |
| 4 | Lerone Murphy | 0 | 15 of 56 | 26% | 15 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Edson Barboza | 0 | 59 of 93 | 63% | 65 of 99 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:25 | |
| 5 | Lerone Murphy | 0 | 11 of 47 | 23% | 11 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Edson Barboza | 0 | 38 of 55 | 69% | 48 of 66 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:49 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lerone Murphy | 79 of 242 | 32% | 38 of 189 | 15 of 21 | 26 of 32 | 77 of 239 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Edson Barboza | 220 of 364 | 60% | 172 of 308 | 27 of 34 | 21 of 22 | 205 of 344 | 13 of 17 | 2 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lerone Murphy | 25 of 53 | 47% | 14 of 39 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 12 | 24 of 51 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Edson Barboza | 34 of 62 | 54% | 26 of 52 | 6 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 32 of 59 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | |
| 2 | Lerone Murphy | 17 of 44 | 38% | 5 of 31 | 5 of 5 | 7 of 8 | 17 of 44 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Edson Barboza | 41 of 75 | 54% | 36 of 69 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 37 of 70 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Lerone Murphy | 11 of 42 | 26% | 5 of 32 | 2 of 5 | 4 of 5 | 10 of 41 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Edson Barboza | 48 of 79 | 60% | 40 of 70 | 6 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 43 of 73 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Lerone Murphy | 15 of 56 | 26% | 7 of 46 | 4 of 5 | 4 of 5 | 15 of 56 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Edson Barboza | 59 of 93 | 63% | 42 of 75 | 7 of 8 | 10 of 10 | 58 of 91 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Lerone Murphy | 11 of 47 | 23% | 7 of 41 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 11 of 47 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Edson Barboza | 38 of 55 | 69% | 28 of 42 | 4 of 6 | 6 of 7 | 35 of 51 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo leans Edson Barboza due to his veteran savvy, well-rounded skills, and recent win over a similar young striker in Sodiq Yusuff. He compares Barboza to Charles Oliveira in terms of danger everywhere. However, he worries about Barboza's age (38) and chin. Lerone Murphy is undefeated with good footwork and power, but Barboza's experience and ability to mix in takedowns could be the difference.
Cody acknowledges the similarities to the Yusuff fight but notes Murphy doesn't gas like Yusuff; Murphy conserves energy and improves in later rounds. He points out Barboza is 38 and has taken a lot of damage, and speed declines with age. Cody is concerned about Murphy's close split decision over Gabriel Santos, but ultimately picks Murphy, citing Father Time as an ally.
Murphy has potential and mixes his game well, with solid cardio and grappling. Barboza is 38 and cutting to 145, which may affect his durability. Murphy can use clinch and takedowns to put Barboza in uncomfortable positions. However, this is Murphy's first five-round fight, and Barboza's experience is a factor. Expects Murphy to grind out a decision.
Paul sees this matchup similar to Barboza's win over Sodiq Yusuff, where Barboza's veteran savvy and cardio allowed him to take over late. He notes Murphy hasn't been tested in five rounds and lacks the volume that Yusuff had. Paul believes Barboza is a tough out for prospects without stout wrestling, and Murphy's wrestling isn't elite enough to neutralize Barboza's striking.
The MMA Guru picks Edson Barboza to win by body kick TKO in round three or four over Lerone Murphy. He argues that Murphy is less powerful and less dangerous than Sadik Yusuf, who Barboza beat. He notes Murphy's tendency to edge by wins and lack of a finishing move, while Barboza has experience in main events and the cardio to break Murphy down. He expects Barboza's speed and technique to prevail.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lerone Murphy | 1 | 59 of 109 | 54% | 87 of 144 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 2 | 0 | 7:38 |
| Josh Culibao | 0 | 23 of 59 | 38% | 40 of 77 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:30 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lerone Murphy | 0 | 18 of 37 | 48% | 18 of 37 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:13 |
| Josh Culibao | 0 | 11 of 34 | 32% | 20 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 | |
| 2 | Lerone Murphy | 0 | 12 of 23 | 52% | 24 of 38 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:39 |
| Josh Culibao | 0 | 7 of 16 | 43% | 14 of 24 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:48 | |
| 3 | Lerone Murphy | 1 | 29 of 49 | 59% | 45 of 69 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 2 | 0 | 3:46 |
| Josh Culibao | 0 | 5 of 9 | 55% | 6 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:34 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lerone Murphy | 59 of 109 | 54% | 37 of 81 | 15 of 18 | 7 of 10 | 24 of 61 | 12 of 14 | 23 of 34 |
| Josh Culibao | 23 of 59 | 38% | 16 of 48 | 5 of 6 | 2 of 5 | 19 of 53 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lerone Murphy | 18 of 37 | 48% | 8 of 25 | 5 of 6 | 5 of 6 | 15 of 33 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Josh Culibao | 11 of 34 | 32% | 7 of 26 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 5 | 10 of 33 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Lerone Murphy | 12 of 23 | 52% | 6 of 15 | 4 of 5 | 2 of 3 | 7 of 18 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 2 |
| Josh Culibao | 7 of 16 | 43% | 5 of 14 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 13 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Lerone Murphy | 29 of 49 | 59% | 23 of 41 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 10 | 6 of 7 | 21 of 32 |
| Josh Culibao | 5 of 9 | 55% | 4 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo favors Lerone Murphy's fluid striking and power, noting that Josh Culibao gets hit often. He mentions Murphy's takedown defense is low but he scrambles well, and the judges seem to favor him. He has a half-unit bet on Murphy at -145.
Big Brady picks Lerone Murphy by decision. He notes this is a different matchup than Murphy's last fight against a grappler, as Culibao has zero takedowns in the UFC. He thinks Murphy's striking and volume will be key, and he has hometown advantage in London. He believes even if it's close, the judges will favor the undefeated fighter in London.
Cody picks Murphy, noting his well-roundedness, accurate striking, and wrestling. He thinks Murphy's volume and home crowd advantage will secure a decision. He is surprised by the line movement and thinks Murphy is being disrespected.
Daniel leans toward Lerone Murphy, primarily due to potential hometown judging bias in London. He acknowledges Josh Culibao is a tough, scrappy fighter who finds ways to win, but thinks Murphy's volume and well-roundedness give him a slight edge. He notes that if the fight were in neutral territory, he'd view it as a pick'em, but in the UK, he gives Murphy a slight advantage. He expects a close fight, possibly a split decision.
James leans towards Josh Culibao as the underdog side. He thinks the fight is close and likely to go to a split decision. He notes that Culibao may have some advantages like takedowns but is open on the feet. He mentions that Murphy has power but Culibao has good recovery. James says whoever is the underdog is probably the side, and at +130, Culibao has value.
The host leans with Lerone Murphy, citing his physical advantages, explosiveness, speed, and power. He expects Murphy to land big shots and possibly knockdowns to thwart Culibao's pressure. He predicts a decision win but says he'll likely stay off the fight for betting.
Paul picks Murphy, citing his heart and ability to overcome adversity in his last fight. He thinks Murphy's jab and accuracy will win rounds, and that Culibao's level of opposition is low. He expects Murphy to chip away and win.
The MMA Guru picks Lerone Murphy, initially considering Josh Culibao but reasoning that Murphy's poor performance against Gabriel Santos was due to short notice and injuries. He believes Murphy's composure and technical striking will outpoint Culibao, and notes the UK crowd advantage. The Guru also mentions Murphy's ability to find top position and his difficulty to finish.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lerone Murphy | 0 | 93 of 161 | 57% | 115 of 183 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:18 |
| Gabriel Santos | 0 | 69 of 122 | 56% | 87 of 141 | 5 of 11 | 45% | 0 | 0 | 4:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lerone Murphy | 0 | 33 of 58 | 56% | 37 of 62 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:59 |
| Gabriel Santos | 0 | 36 of 54 | 66% | 37 of 55 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:39 | |
| 2 | Lerone Murphy | 0 | 25 of 44 | 56% | 36 of 55 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:14 |
| Gabriel Santos | 0 | 13 of 32 | 40% | 26 of 46 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:45 | |
| 3 | Lerone Murphy | 0 | 35 of 59 | 59% | 42 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Gabriel Santos | 0 | 20 of 36 | 55% | 24 of 40 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 1:36 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lerone Murphy | 93 of 161 | 57% | 59 of 117 | 27 of 37 | 7 of 7 | 77 of 144 | 12 of 12 | 4 of 5 |
| Gabriel Santos | 69 of 122 | 56% | 32 of 73 | 24 of 34 | 13 of 15 | 55 of 105 | 14 of 15 | 0 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lerone Murphy | 33 of 58 | 56% | 18 of 39 | 12 of 16 | 3 of 3 | 29 of 54 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 |
| Gabriel Santos | 36 of 54 | 66% | 16 of 31 | 13 of 16 | 7 of 7 | 29 of 45 | 7 of 8 | 0 of 1 | |
| 2 | Lerone Murphy | 25 of 44 | 56% | 13 of 30 | 10 of 12 | 2 of 2 | 18 of 36 | 5 of 5 | 2 of 3 |
| Gabriel Santos | 13 of 32 | 40% | 8 of 22 | 3 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 27 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 1 | |
| 3 | Lerone Murphy | 35 of 59 | 59% | 28 of 48 | 5 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 30 of 54 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Gabriel Santos | 20 of 36 | 55% | 8 of 20 | 8 of 10 | 4 of 6 | 17 of 33 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo thinks Murphy should win because he is the better striker with good footwork and power, and he has a full camp. However, he is wary of Murphy's layoff and the short-notice opponent. He notes Murphy's takedown defense is low but he scrambles well. He is staying away from betting due to the uncertainty.
Big Brady picks Murphy, citing his power (knockout wins over Makwan Amirkhani and Ricardo Ramos) and Santos' hittability and questionable durability. He notes Santos is dangerous everywhere but took the fight on short notice and is making a long flight. He predicts a second-round knockout, but acknowledges Santos could have success early.
Cody picks Murphy, citing his precise striking, lateral movement, and high ring IQ. He notes Murphy has fought good wrestlers and defended takedowns well. He thinks Santos, on short notice, won't be able to take Murphy down and will lose a decision. He mentions Murphy's 16-month layoff is a concern but believes he's still a good fighter.
Connor picks Murphy but expects a close fight. He notes that Murphy starts slow but is resourceful and has great cardio, often coming back to win. Santos is a solid, well-rounded fighter but may run out of ideas as the fight goes on. Connor also mentions the short-notice factor favoring Murphy.
Jacob picks Murphy but with low confidence due to his defensive wrestling holes. He thinks Murphy is the better striker but if Santos gets the fight to the ground, it could be trouble. He notes Murphy's takedown defense has been improving. He is not betting but would feel better if Murphy stuffs the first takedown.
Murphy is explosive with big power and a good calf kick, but has grappling flaws and a layoff due to head injury. Santos is a short-notice replacement with a wild pressure style and defensive holes. Murphy's speed and power should exploit Santos's striking deficiencies, leading to a knockout. The fight doesn't go to decision is the favorite spot.
Paul picks Murphy but hesitantly, as he hasn't done full research on Santos. He says Murphy is a solid fighter on a good run, but the layoff and short-notice opponent are unknowns. He says the pick is Murphy but could change after looking at tape.
The MMA Guru picks Lerone Murphy over Gabriel Santos, acknowledging Santos is a dangerous prospect but noting he is on short notice. Murphy has a full camp and has shown composure against tough opponents like Zubaira Tukhugov. He predicts Murphy will win a 29-28 decision after a rough first round, trusting his experience and well-rounded game.
Zane also picks Murphy, noting that Murphy's ability to adapt and his physicality will be key. He points out that Santos looked good in his LFA fight but may struggle with Murphy's pressure and clinch work. Zane expects momentum shifts and a competitive fight.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lerone Murphy | 0 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 12 of 16 | 5 of 7 | 71% | 0 | 0 | 4:05 |
| Makwan Amirkhani | 1 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 7 of 8 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lerone Murphy | 0 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 11 of 14 | 5 of 6 | 83% | 0 | 0 | 4:05 |
| Makwan Amirkhani | 0 | 0 of 0 | --- | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 | |
| 2 | Lerone Murphy | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Makwan Amirkhani | 1 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lerone Murphy | 4 of 6 | 66% | 3 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 |
| Makwan Amirkhani | 4 of 5 | 80% | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lerone Murphy | 3 of 4 | 75% | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 |
| Makwan Amirkhani | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Lerone Murphy | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Makwan Amirkhani | 4 of 5 | 80% | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
Big Brady picks Lerone Murphy to win by decision. He explains that Amirkhani is dangerous early with submissions but has poor cardio and gasses after the first round. Murphy is well-rounded with good striking and solid ground game. If Murphy survives the first round, he will take over and win a decision, likely dropping the first round. He suggests live betting Murphy if he survives early.
Cody agrees Murphy wins but suggests betting live because Amirkhani usually doesn't get blown out early. He notes Amirkhani has takedowns in his last 9 fights but fades as fight goes on. Murphy's cardio and ring IQ should take over in later rounds. He prefers to wait for a better price live.
Daniel picks Lerone Murphy, citing his heart and improvement. He notes Amirkhani fades badly after the first round due to health issues. Daniel believes if Murphy survives the early takedowns, he will pick Amirkhani apart. He highlights Murphy's ability to scramble back to his feet. Daniel predicts a third-round knockout.
Murphy will keep the fight standing and punish Amirkhani with leg kicks and power. Amirkhani needs takedowns but Murphy's takedown defense and striking should prevail. Murphy's power will be too much as the fight goes on, likely finishing in the third round.
Paul picks Murphy by decision at +165, noting Amirkhani's durability and wrestling. He thinks Murphy's striking and underrated wrestling will be too much, and Amirkhani will struggle to get takedowns. He expects Murphy to pick him apart on the feet and win a decision.
The MMA Guru picks Lerone Murphy to win by TKO. He criticizes Makwan Amirkhani's mindset and cardio, noting that Amirkhani gassed against a short-notice opponent. He highlights Murphy's takedown defense, physical strength, and composure. He predicts Murphy will stuff takedowns until Amirkhani gasses, then finish with ground and pound. He also mentions Murphy's good knees in the clinch and body shots.
Makwan Amirkhani - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Shore | 0 | 28 of 46 | 60% | 45 of 64 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 2:15 |
| Makwan Amirkhani | 0 | 10 of 24 | 41% | 14 of 28 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 3:31 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Shore | 0 | 5 of 14 | 35% | 19 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:33 |
| Makwan Amirkhani | 0 | 6 of 8 | 75% | 9 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:14 | |
| 2 | Jack Shore | 0 | 23 of 32 | 71% | 26 of 35 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:42 |
| Makwan Amirkhani | 0 | 4 of 16 | 25% | 5 of 17 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Shore | 28 of 46 | 60% | 23 of 40 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 22 of 39 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 5 |
| Makwan Amirkhani | 10 of 24 | 41% | 6 of 19 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 20 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Shore | 5 of 14 | 35% | 3 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 |
| Makwan Amirkhani | 6 of 8 | 75% | 3 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jack Shore | 23 of 32 | 71% | 20 of 29 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 19 of 28 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 |
| Makwan Amirkhani | 4 of 16 | 25% | 3 of 14 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo is confident in Jack Shore, believing he will bounce back from his first loss. He thinks Shore has quality wins and evolving skills. He notes Amirkhani has been getting finished lately and his chin is questionable. He expects Shore to win via takedowns or striking.
Big Brady picks Shore confidently, noting Amirkhani has terrible cardio and is a one-round fighter. He believes Shore can survive the first round and then take over with superior striking and grappling. He predicts a third-round submission as Amirkhani gasses. He sees no path for Amirkhani unless he submits Shore in round one.
Cody picks Shore, noting Amirkhani is a one-round fighter with cardio issues. He thinks Shore can survive the first round, then take over with his high work rate and cardio. He mentions Amirkhani's submission threat in round one is real but low probability. He doesn't love minus 500 and prefers live betting or round three props.
Connor sees Jack Shore as a fundamentally sound, process-driven fighter who will find the most straightforward path to victory. He contrasts Shore's consistency and ability to adjust with Makwan Amirkhani's pattern of gassing after early aggression. Connor believes Shore's jab and pressure will neutralize Amirkhani's wild offense.
Jacob is very confident in Jack Shore, calling him one of his most confident plays on the card. He thinks Amirkhani is broken and quits if his early takedowns fail. He notes Shore defended takedowns well against Ricky Simon and should handle Amirkhani's wrestling. He has bets on Shore for premium members.
Shore is a cardio machine with a grapple-heavy approach, coming off his first loss. Amirkhani is dangerous early with his anaconda choke but fades if he doesn't get the finish. Shore's defensive grappling and pace should allow him to survive the early onslaught and take over in the second and third rounds, likely finishing inside the distance.
Paul picks Shore, citing Amirkhani's cardio issues and Shore's durability. He notes Shore moving up to 145 after a bad cut could help. He thinks if Shore survives round one, he can tire Amirkhani and win by decision or late finish. He says minus 500 is unappealing and prefers a live entry.
The MMA Guru picks Jack Shore over Makwan Amirkhani, despite the odds. He notes Amirkhani is dangerous in the first round with submissions but fades as the fight goes on. Shore has composure in grappling and a massive advantage on the feet with straight punches and a nasty knee. He predicts Shore will survive early grappling exchanges and win in later rounds, possibly by finish.
Zane agrees with Connor, noting that Shore is a consistent, intelligent fighter who makes the right decisions. He points out that Amirkhani is creative but inconsistent, and Shore's fundamental soundness will prevail. Zane expects Shore to let Amirkhani take risks early, then punish him with jabs and counters.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Pearce | 0 | 11 of 22 | 50% | 12 of 23 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 0 | 0 | 1:25 |
| Makwan Amirkhani | 0 | 90 of 112 | 80% | 144 of 178 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 0 | 0 | 4:46 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jonathan Pearce | 0 | 6 of 11 | 54% | 7 of 12 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 0 | 0 | 1:25 |
| Makwan Amirkhani | 0 | 46 of 51 | 90% | 61 of 67 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:39 | |
| 2 | Jonathan Pearce | 0 | 5 of 11 | 45% | 5 of 11 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Makwan Amirkhani | 0 | 44 of 61 | 72% | 83 of 111 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:07 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Pearce | 11 of 22 | 50% | 9 of 19 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 11 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Makwan Amirkhani | 90 of 112 | 80% | 75 of 94 | 11 of 14 | 4 of 4 | 16 of 28 | 37 of 37 | 37 of 47 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jonathan Pearce | 6 of 11 | 54% | 4 of 8 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Makwan Amirkhani | 46 of 51 | 90% | 43 of 47 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 7 | 37 of 37 | 6 of 7 | |
| 2 | Jonathan Pearce | 5 of 11 | 45% | 5 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Makwan Amirkhani | 44 of 61 | 72% | 32 of 47 | 9 of 11 | 3 of 3 | 13 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 31 of 40 |
Angelo picks Jonathan Pearce, noting it's a grappler vs grappler matchup and it will come down to who shoots first. He believes Pearce will initiate the takedowns and has a high pace. He mentions Amirkhani just submitted a better wrestler in Mike Grundy, and all of Pearce's losses are grappling-based, so he suggests a live bet on Amirkhani if he gets early takedowns.
Big Brady picks Makwan Amirkhani for the upset by early submission. He likes Jonathan Pearce's style but notes Pearce often gets in bad spots on the mat. Amirkhani has dangerous submissions and good wrestling. However, Amirkhani's cardio is a concern; if he doesn't finish in round one, Pearce takes over. He suggests a live bet on Pearce if Amirkhani doesn't finish round one.
Cody picks Makwan Amirkhani, agreeing the line is fraudulent. He notes Pearce's striking defense is poor and he almost got submitted in his last fight. Cody thinks Amirkhani is dangerous early and can submit Pearce if he shoots. He also notes Amirkhani has good wrestling and could take Pearce down. Cody likes the moneyline at +170.
Daniel Levi picks Jonathan Pearce, emphasizing his high pace and ability to put up large strike and takedown numbers. He acknowledges that Amirkhani is dangerous in the first round with his wrestling and submissions, but notes that Amirkhani gasses out due to health issues. Levi believes if Pearce can survive the first round, his pace will be too much in the later rounds.
Pearce has the striking advantage, overall MMA advantage, and cardio advantage. Amirkhani's only threat is the anaconda choke. Pearce's team will have him prepared. Pearce can finish later or win a decision. I might pull the trigger at -200.
Paul picks Makwan Amirkhani at +170, calling it a dogger pass. He thinks the line is off and the fight is closer to 50-50. Paul notes Pearce's cardio looked poor in his last fight and that Amirkhani is dangerous on the ground. He believes if Pearce takes Amirkhani down, he'll be in trouble. Paul also likes Amirkhani by submission at +350.
The MMA Guru picks Makwan Amirkhani as an underdog, noting he always likes him but often loses when picking him. He believes Amirkhani is dangerous in the first round with submissions, and Jonathan Pearce leaves himself in bad positions during scrambles. Pearce's pressure and cardio are good, but his technical scrambles are not. The Guru expects an anaconda choke finish early.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Makwan Amirkhani | 0 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:31 |
| Mike Grundy | 0 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:15 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Makwan Amirkhani | 0 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:31 |
| Mike Grundy | 0 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:15 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Makwan Amirkhani | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Mike Grundy | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Makwan Amirkhani | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Mike Grundy | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Mike Grundy, believing he will be more disciplined in sticking to wrestling. He notes that Grundy's striking is poor, but if he dives for takedowns, he can win. He thinks Amirkhani is a better striker but may get taken down when he tries to strike. He expects Grundy to take damage on the way in but ultimately win.
Big Brady picks Mike Grundy to win by decision, but expresses low confidence. He notes both fighters have bad cardio, but Grundy has slightly better gas tank (7-10 minutes vs 5). He favors Grundy's striking and believes Grundy can dictate where the fight takes place. Brady says it's a tricky fight and he wants nothing to do with it.
Cody picks Grundy, citing his better striking and Amirkhani's poor cardio. He thinks Grundy's wrestling will neutralize Amirkhani's takedowns, and that Grundy's power will be the difference in a striking battle. He is cautious due to Grundy's own cardio issues.
Daniel Levi picks Mike Grundy confidently, citing Makwan Amirkhani's decline in confidence and cardio, as well as a recent brutal knockout. He believes Grundy's wrestling and durability will overwhelm Amirkhani, who has one round of gas and has been figured out. Levi expects Grundy to win by knockout or submission, noting that Amirkhani is vulnerable after his last KO. He also mentions Grundy's power and submission threats.
Grundy has a more reliable gas tank and power striking, while Amirkhani tends to fold when things go wrong. Grundy attempted 20 takedowns in his last fight, showing relentless pressure. Amirkhani may struggle to get Grundy to the ground, and on the feet, Grundy has the advantage. I lean Grundy, but the line is getting out of whack near -200. I'll sprinkle on Grundy by KO at +750 and Grundy in round 3 at +1400.
Paul picks Grundy, arguing that Amirkhani's only good round is the first if he gets takedowns, but Grundy's wrestling is good enough to stop that. He thinks both will tire, but Grundy has better striking and power. He notes Amirkhani is likely fighting for his job.
The Guru picks Mike Grundy, citing his grappling strength and durability. He believes Makwan Amirkhani lacks grit and gas tank, and will fade as the fight goes on. He predicts Grundy will survive an early grappling onslaught, then take over in round two and finish with a TKO against the cage in round three. He notes both are fighting for their careers.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lerone Murphy | 0 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 12 of 16 | 5 of 7 | 71% | 0 | 0 | 4:05 |
| Makwan Amirkhani | 1 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 7 of 8 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lerone Murphy | 0 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 11 of 14 | 5 of 6 | 83% | 0 | 0 | 4:05 |
| Makwan Amirkhani | 0 | 0 of 0 | --- | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 | |
| 2 | Lerone Murphy | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Makwan Amirkhani | 1 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lerone Murphy | 4 of 6 | 66% | 3 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 |
| Makwan Amirkhani | 4 of 5 | 80% | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lerone Murphy | 3 of 4 | 75% | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 |
| Makwan Amirkhani | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Lerone Murphy | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Makwan Amirkhani | 4 of 5 | 80% | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
Big Brady picks Lerone Murphy to win by decision. He explains that Amirkhani is dangerous early with submissions but has poor cardio and gasses after the first round. Murphy is well-rounded with good striking and solid ground game. If Murphy survives the first round, he will take over and win a decision, likely dropping the first round. He suggests live betting Murphy if he survives early.
Cody agrees Murphy wins but suggests betting live because Amirkhani usually doesn't get blown out early. He notes Amirkhani has takedowns in his last 9 fights but fades as fight goes on. Murphy's cardio and ring IQ should take over in later rounds. He prefers to wait for a better price live.
Daniel picks Lerone Murphy, citing his heart and improvement. He notes Amirkhani fades badly after the first round due to health issues. Daniel believes if Murphy survives the early takedowns, he will pick Amirkhani apart. He highlights Murphy's ability to scramble back to his feet. Daniel predicts a third-round knockout.
Murphy will keep the fight standing and punish Amirkhani with leg kicks and power. Amirkhani needs takedowns but Murphy's takedown defense and striking should prevail. Murphy's power will be too much as the fight goes on, likely finishing in the third round.
Paul picks Murphy by decision at +165, noting Amirkhani's durability and wrestling. He thinks Murphy's striking and underrated wrestling will be too much, and Amirkhani will struggle to get takedowns. He expects Murphy to pick him apart on the feet and win a decision.
The MMA Guru picks Lerone Murphy to win by TKO. He criticizes Makwan Amirkhani's mindset and cardio, noting that Amirkhani gassed against a short-notice opponent. He highlights Murphy's takedown defense, physical strength, and composure. He predicts Murphy will stuff takedowns until Amirkhani gasses, then finish with ground and pound. He also mentions Murphy's good knees in the clinch and body shots.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kamuela Kirk | 0 | 20 of 49 | 40% | 25 of 56 | 5 of 9 | 55% | 0 | 0 | 6:50 |
| Makwan Amirkhani | 0 | 28 of 63 | 44% | 100 of 143 | 0 of 0 | --- | 3 | 0 | 1:34 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kamuela Kirk | 0 | 6 of 16 | 37% | 6 of 16 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 1:44 |
| Makwan Amirkhani | 0 | 11 of 23 | 47% | 19 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 | |
| 2 | Kamuela Kirk | 0 | 6 of 20 | 30% | 8 of 24 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:51 |
| Makwan Amirkhani | 0 | 13 of 27 | 48% | 46 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 3 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Kamuela Kirk | 0 | 8 of 13 | 61% | 11 of 16 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 2:15 |
| Makwan Amirkhani | 0 | 4 of 13 | 30% | 35 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:30 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kamuela Kirk | 20 of 49 | 40% | 14 of 40 | 4 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 15 of 42 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 7 |
| Makwan Amirkhani | 28 of 63 | 44% | 8 of 34 | 9 of 15 | 11 of 14 | 27 of 62 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kamuela Kirk | 6 of 16 | 37% | 3 of 12 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Makwan Amirkhani | 11 of 23 | 47% | 3 of 15 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 5 | 11 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Kamuela Kirk | 6 of 20 | 30% | 5 of 17 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 |
| Makwan Amirkhani | 13 of 27 | 48% | 2 of 10 | 6 of 9 | 5 of 8 | 13 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Kamuela Kirk | 8 of 13 | 61% | 6 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
| Makwan Amirkhani | 4 of 13 | 30% | 3 of 9 | 0 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Big Brady thinks the line is too wide but favors Amirkhani as the better fighter in every area, especially grappling. He notes Kirk is on short notice and gassed in his last fight after a good first round. He believes Amirkhani will get takedowns and win a decision, though he doesn't expect a submission. He considers the skill sets similar but Amirkhani more skilled by a decent margin.
Cody picks Kirk, agreeing with Paul. He notes Amirkhani's striking deficiencies and that Kirk is a better striker. Cody thinks Kirk's grappling is good enough to avoid submissions. He sees value in the dog and suggests live betting after the first round.
Daniel picks Kirk as a plus-220 underdog, believing Kirk can stuff takedowns and win the boxing exchanges. He notes that Kirk trains at Fight Ready with Henry Cejudo and has improved since his Contender Series loss. Daniel acknowledges Amirkhani's experience and takedown game, but points out that Amirkhani has been dropped multiple times and has questionable cardio. He thinks Kirk's striking is better and if he can avoid gassing, he can win a decision or even get a finish. Daniel is going out on a limb but likes the dog.
Kirk has a striking advantage and a BJJ black belt to defend submissions. Amirkhani fades after the first round and has poor striking. Kirk will survive the early grappling and win rounds two and three on the feet.
Paul picks Kirk as a dog, citing his striking advantage and takedown defense. He notes Amirkhani's low volume and reliance on early submissions. Paul thinks Kirk can survive the first round and then outpoint Amirkhani. He sees value at +205.
The Guru picks Makwan Amirkhani, noting that Kirk is on short notice and lacks the cardio or early power to stop Amirkhani's takedowns. He references Amirkhani's success getting takedowns on Edson Barboza and Shane Burgos. He predicts Amirkhani will control the first two rounds and win a 29-28 decision, though Kirk might have a good third round.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edson Barboza | 2 | 32 of 74 | 43% | 34 of 77 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 1:38 |
| Makwan Amirkhani | 0 | 11 of 39 | 28% | 25 of 59 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:13 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Edson Barboza | 0 | 13 of 31 | 41% | 15 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Makwan Amirkhani | 0 | 4 of 13 | 30% | 6 of 16 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 | |
| 2 | Edson Barboza | 2 | 12 of 26 | 46% | 12 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 1:35 |
| Makwan Amirkhani | 0 | 3 of 15 | 20% | 7 of 22 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:14 | |
| 3 | Edson Barboza | 0 | 7 of 17 | 41% | 7 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Makwan Amirkhani | 0 | 4 of 11 | 36% | 12 of 21 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:51 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edson Barboza | 32 of 74 | 43% | 8 of 42 | 18 of 23 | 6 of 9 | 31 of 69 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 4 |
| Makwan Amirkhani | 11 of 39 | 28% | 10 of 36 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 36 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Edson Barboza | 13 of 31 | 41% | 1 of 16 | 7 of 9 | 5 of 6 | 13 of 30 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Makwan Amirkhani | 4 of 13 | 30% | 4 of 12 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Edson Barboza | 12 of 26 | 46% | 5 of 16 | 6 of 7 | 1 of 3 | 11 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 4 |
| Makwan Amirkhani | 3 of 15 | 20% | 3 of 14 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 14 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Edson Barboza | 7 of 17 | 41% | 2 of 10 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Makwan Amirkhani | 4 of 11 | 36% | 3 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
Big Brady picks Barboza as part of a parlay with Tagir Ulanbekov. He believes Barboza has a great stylistic matchup, with 75% takedown defense against elite wrestlers, and that Amirkhani lacks the wrestling to keep him down. He expects Barboza to survive the early storm, stuff takedowns, and land a knockout as Amirkhani slows down. He notes Barboza is a BJJ black belt himself.
Daniel argues that Edson Barboza is not washed up like Tyron Woodley; he is still competitive with top-15 fighters and wins rounds. He believes Makwan Amirkhani is not on Barboza's level and that Amirkhani will struggle to get takedowns due to Barboza's improved takedown defense. Daniel also notes that Amirkhani has poor cardio and tends to fold when hit hard, while Barboza has the striking advantage and can finish the fight.
Barboza has a significant striking advantage and solid takedown defense. Amirkhani is a first-round threat but fades quickly; Barboza's body work and kicks will drain him. Expect a third-round TKO after Amirkhani's initial blitz fails.
The Guru picks Barboza, acknowledging Amirkhani's dangerous ground game but believing Barboza's takedown defense has improved over years of training. He notes Barboza survived Khabib's grappling and never got submitted. He expects Barboza to defend takedowns early, then take over with body kicks to drain Amirkhani's gas tank, finishing with a body kick TKO in the late second round.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Makwan Amirkhani | 0 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 2 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:47 |
| Danny Henry | 0 | 6 of 16 | 37% | 6 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Makwan Amirkhani | 0 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 2 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:47 |
| Danny Henry | 0 | 6 of 16 | 37% | 6 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Makwan Amirkhani | 2 of 6 | 33% | 1 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Danny Henry | 6 of 16 | 37% | 1 of 6 | 3 of 7 | 2 of 3 | 6 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Makwan Amirkhani | 2 of 6 | 33% | 1 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Danny Henry | 6 of 16 | 37% | 1 of 6 | 3 of 7 | 2 of 3 | 6 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Makwan Amirkhani by submission in the first round, citing his excellent wrestling and BJJ. He notes Amirkhani's gas tank is poor, so he needs an early finish, and he expects him to take Henry down and submit him early.
Daniel Levi picks Makwan Amirkhani, expecting him to grind out a win via takedowns and top control. He notes Amirkhani has landed a takedown in every UFC fight except his flying knee KO, and believes he can take down Danny Henry. He acknowledges Henry's length and comeback potential but favors Amirkhani's wrestling and submission threat.
Amirkhani has a massive grappling advantage and should be able to take Henry down and submit him. Henry is not as talented as Burgos, who finished Amirkhani, and Amirkhani's cardio issues shouldn't come into play if he gets the finish early. Picks Amirkhani by submission in the second round.
The Guru does not discuss this fight in the transcript. No pick is made.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shane Burgos | 1 | 105 of 155 | 67% | 161 of 217 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 3:31 |
| Makwan Amirkhani | 0 | 22 of 48 | 45% | 23 of 49 | 3 of 19 | 15% | 1 | 0 | 4:19 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shane Burgos | 0 | 6 of 17 | 35% | 16 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:36 |
| Makwan Amirkhani | 0 | 8 of 14 | 57% | 9 of 15 | 3 of 10 | 30% | 1 | 0 | 2:45 | |
| 2 | Shane Burgos | 0 | 27 of 44 | 61% | 61 of 83 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:12 |
| Makwan Amirkhani | 0 | 5 of 16 | 31% | 5 of 16 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:16 | |
| 3 | Shane Burgos | 1 | 72 of 94 | 76% | 84 of 107 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:43 |
| Makwan Amirkhani | 0 | 9 of 18 | 50% | 9 of 18 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:18 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shane Burgos | 105 of 155 | 67% | 61 of 108 | 41 of 43 | 3 of 4 | 39 of 78 | 15 of 17 | 51 of 60 |
| Makwan Amirkhani | 22 of 48 | 45% | 21 of 46 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 21 of 47 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shane Burgos | 6 of 17 | 35% | 4 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 15 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Makwan Amirkhani | 8 of 14 | 57% | 8 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Shane Burgos | 27 of 44 | 61% | 11 of 25 | 14 of 16 | 2 of 3 | 14 of 28 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 15 |
| Makwan Amirkhani | 5 of 16 | 31% | 5 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Shane Burgos | 72 of 94 | 76% | 46 of 68 | 25 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 20 of 35 | 13 of 14 | 39 of 45 |
| Makwan Amirkhani | 9 of 18 | 50% | 8 of 16 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Expert Picks (6)
Big Brady picks Lerone Murphy to win by decision. He explains that Amirkhani is dangerous early with submissions but has poor cardio and gasses after the first round. Murphy is well-rounded with good striking and solid ground game. If Murphy survives the first round, he will take over and win a decision, likely dropping the first round. He suggests live betting Murphy if he survives early.
Cody agrees Murphy wins but suggests betting live because Amirkhani usually doesn't get blown out early. He notes Amirkhani has takedowns in his last 9 fights but fades as fight goes on. Murphy's cardio and ring IQ should take over in later rounds. He prefers to wait for a better price live.
Daniel picks Lerone Murphy, citing his heart and improvement. He notes Amirkhani fades badly after the first round due to health issues. Daniel believes if Murphy survives the early takedowns, he will pick Amirkhani apart. He highlights Murphy's ability to scramble back to his feet. Daniel predicts a third-round knockout.
Murphy will keep the fight standing and punish Amirkhani with leg kicks and power. Amirkhani needs takedowns but Murphy's takedown defense and striking should prevail. Murphy's power will be too much as the fight goes on, likely finishing in the third round.
Paul picks Murphy by decision at +165, noting Amirkhani's durability and wrestling. He thinks Murphy's striking and underrated wrestling will be too much, and Amirkhani will struggle to get takedowns. He expects Murphy to pick him apart on the feet and win a decision.
The MMA Guru picks Lerone Murphy to win by TKO. He criticizes Makwan Amirkhani's mindset and cardio, noting that Amirkhani gassed against a short-notice opponent. He highlights Murphy's takedown defense, physical strength, and composure. He predicts Murphy will stuff takedowns until Amirkhani gasses, then finish with ground and pound. He also mentions Murphy's good knees in the clinch and body shots.
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