vs
-265 +250
UFC 267: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira · Oct 30, 2021 · Featherweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC 267: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira Next Fight
Age 34
Height 5' 9"
Reach 73.0"
Weight 145 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 37
Height 5' 10"
Reach 72.0"
Weight 145 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Career Averages - Lerone Murphy
4.34 SLpM
51.0% Str. Acc.
2.65 SApM
60.0% Str. Def.
1.2 TD Avg
54.0% TD Acc.
44.0% TD Def.
0.5 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Makwan Amirkhani
1.33 SLpM
44.0% Str. Acc.
2.98 SApM
46.0% Str. Def.
3.96 TD Avg
43.0% TD Acc.
35.0% TD Def.
1.1 Sub. Avg
Lerone Murphy
Moneyline
DraftKings -265
KO/TKO
DraftKings +165
Submission
FanDuel +2600
Decision
FanDuel +180
Makwan Amirkhani
Moneyline
BetRivers +250
KO/TKO
FanDuel +1600
Submission
DraftKings +600
Decision
BetMGM +600
Lerone Murphy - Fight History
LOSS vs Movsar Evloev
Decision R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy · Mar 21, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Movsar Evloev 0 86 of 189 45% 124 of 234 9 of 10 90% 0 0 3:54
Lerone Murphy 0 89 of 239 37% 89 of 239 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Movsar Evloev 0 11 of 31 35% 11 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Lerone Murphy 0 14 of 49 28% 14 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Movsar Evloev 0 17 of 37 45% 17 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Lerone Murphy 0 24 of 57 42% 24 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Movsar Evloev 0 25 of 50 50% 26 of 52 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:23
Lerone Murphy 0 23 of 48 47% 23 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Movsar Evloev 0 21 of 35 60% 30 of 45 3 of 4 75% 0 0 1:19
Lerone Murphy 0 16 of 39 41% 16 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Movsar Evloev 0 12 of 36 33% 40 of 69 5 of 5 100% 0 0 2:12
Lerone Murphy 0 12 of 46 26% 12 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Movsar Evloev 86 of 189 45% 47 of 134 33 of 44 6 of 11 80 of 178 1 of 2 5 of 9
Lerone Murphy 89 of 239 37% 45 of 175 24 of 38 20 of 26 89 of 238 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Movsar Evloev 11 of 31 35% 3 of 21 6 of 7 2 of 3 11 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
Lerone Murphy 14 of 49 28% 6 of 35 4 of 8 4 of 6 14 of 49 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Movsar Evloev 17 of 37 45% 9 of 24 7 of 11 1 of 2 17 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0
Lerone Murphy 24 of 57 42% 12 of 41 7 of 10 5 of 6 24 of 57 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Movsar Evloev 25 of 50 50% 12 of 34 11 of 13 2 of 3 25 of 50 0 of 0 0 of 0
Lerone Murphy 23 of 48 47% 12 of 35 8 of 9 3 of 4 23 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Movsar Evloev 21 of 35 60% 16 of 29 5 of 5 0 of 1 15 of 25 1 of 2 5 of 8
Lerone Murphy 16 of 39 41% 6 of 24 5 of 8 5 of 7 16 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Movsar Evloev 12 of 36 33% 7 of 26 4 of 8 1 of 2 12 of 35 0 of 0 0 of 1
Lerone Murphy 12 of 46 26% 9 of 40 0 of 3 3 of 3 12 of 45 0 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Angelo picks Lerone Murphy because he is the better overall fighter with superior striking and scrambling ability. He notes Movsar Evloev is a boring wrestler who doesn't do damage or seek finishes. He believes Murphy can scramble back to his feet and win rounds with striking, especially with English judges. He bet a small amount on Murphy at +220.

bet small at +220; English judges may help
"I am picking Lar Murphy. I bet on him at plus 220. Nothing huge, a small little bet because I am a coward. But I'm picking Lor Murphy."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 16, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Movsar Evloev

Big Brady confidently picks Movsar Evloev, citing his wrestling advantage and Murphy's poor takedown defense (51%). He notes that Murphy has been taken down multiple times by various opponents, including Gabriel Santos (five times). He thinks Evloev's striking is underrated and that he will mix in takedowns to win a decision. He also mentions that Evloev has had a layoff and visa issues but expects the best version of him.

Movsar Evloev by decision
"Give me Evloev to win this fight. Give me Evloev to win this fight by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Cody sees value in Murphy as a plus-money underdog, citing Evloev's cardio issues in five-round fights and Murphy's ability to scramble and land strikes. He expects Murphy to win a decision or late stoppage.

"I actually think he just wins this fight. But it does come down to a numbers game sometimes. And by the value side, he is definitely the value side."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Mar 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Movsar Evloev

Connor agrees with Zane that Evloev is the right pick due to Murphy's poor takedown defense, but he is more hesitant because of the five-round factor. He notes that Murphy is impossible to break with pace and pressure, and Evloev has never fought five rounds. Connor points to the Arnold Allen fight where Evloev struggled when takedowns stopped working, and suggests Murphy could get a read on Evloev's entries in later rounds. However, he ultimately picks Evloev because Murphy's takedown defense is worse than Allen's and Evloev is a good takedown artist who maintains position.

Evloev opened at -250, currently -240; Murphy opened at +210, currently +205.
"I think you do have to pick Yvlowev. You're not wrong. I think that is the right pick, but I do really wonder, like, what does this fight look like in rounds four and five..."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 17, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Movsar Evloev

Daniel Vreeland picks Movsar Evloev to win by unanimous decision. He believes Evloev will dominate the first two rounds with takedowns, but Murphy will rally in rounds 3 and 4. However, Evloev will regain control in the fifth round to secure a 48-47 decision.

"I think if Loy is going to win a unanimous decision here."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Mar 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Movsar Evloev

Daniel leans Evloev as a pure pick, citing his elite athleticism and takedown numbers. He acknowledges Murphy's resilience and gritty comebacks but thinks Evloev can secure a takedown in the fifth round if it's close. He notes Evloev doesn't finish fights and Murphy is hard to put away.

"I kind of do lean Evloev just as a pure pick."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Hesitant picked Mar 20, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Movsar Evloev

Evloev's wrestling should be the difference, but Murphy's home advantage and ability to get up make it less certain. Evloev may struggle to hold Murphy down, but his chain wrestling and volume striking could win rounds. On neutral territory, Evloev wins easily; in London, it's closer.

Fight likely goes to decision; not interested in fight spreads.
"Evloev should win."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Movsar Evloev

James picks Movsar Evloev to win via decision, citing Evloev's relentless pressure, volume takedowns, and cardio over 25 minutes. He notes that Lerone Murphy has historically struggled with grapplers who shoot volume takedowns, as seen in fights against Zubaira Tukhugov and Gabriel Santos. James also mentions that Murphy's takedown defense is poor, though he has good get-ups. He considers the layoff and illness for Evloev but still favors him.

Evloev by decision, over 4.5 rounds
"I think Mobsa Evov wins here. I'm really more looking for the Mobs decision over four and a half cuz I think Leon is super tough."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 17, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Movsar Evloev

The host is confident in Movsar Evloev winning by decision. He highlights Evloev's superior grappling, cardio, and pressure, while Murphy is seen as well-rounded but likely to be worn down by takedowns and mat returns. He expects Evloev to dictate the fight on the ground and win decisively on the scorecards.

"I like Evloev here. I don't mind passing on him if I don't get the number that I want, but I still think he wins this pretty decisively. And I think he does it on the scorecards."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Movsar Evloev

Paul thinks Evloev will get takedowns repeatedly and grind out a decision, though he acknowledges the risk of home cooking for Murphy. He's confident Evloev wins but not betting heavily.

"I have no doubt in my mind that he's going to be able to get takedowns over Luron Murphy over and over and over."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Movsar Evloev

The MMA Guru picks Movsar Evloev to win by fourth or fifth round finish. He notes Murphy has been taken down easily by lesser wrestlers and Evloev's grappling is elite. He believes Evloev will ragdoll Murphy and eventually find a finish as Murphy tires. He also mentions Evloev's improved physique and that Murphy lacks finishing power.

fourth or fifth round finish
"Eve gets this one done. Fourth or fifth round finish. I think he'll push for a finish and get it."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Movsar Evloev

Zane picks Evloev based on Murphy's poor takedown defense (51% in UFC) and Evloev's consistent wrestling and top control. He notes that while Murphy is a good scrambler and learns during fights, Evloev's relentless pressure and ability to win scrambles will likely overwhelm Murphy over three rounds. Zane acknowledges the five-round question but believes Evloev's gas tank is fine, though his lack of adaptability could be an issue if Murphy figures out his entries late.

Evloev opened at -250, currently -240; Murphy opened at +210, currently +205.
"I got to pick the rest. And can also very, very clearly and notably win out really difficult scramble battles."
WIN vs Aaron Pico
KO R1 3:21 · UFC 319: du Plessis vs. Chimaev · Aug 16, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Lerone Murphy 1 8 of 16 50% 8 of 16 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Aaron Pico 0 13 of 29 44% 13 of 30 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Lerone Murphy 1 8 of 16 50% 8 of 16 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Aaron Pico 0 13 of 29 44% 13 of 30 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Lerone Murphy 8 of 16 50% 4 of 9 4 of 6 0 of 1 6 of 14 1 of 1 1 of 1
Aaron Pico 13 of 29 44% 7 of 23 5 of 5 1 of 1 7 of 21 3 of 5 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Lerone Murphy 8 of 16 50% 4 of 9 4 of 6 0 of 1 6 of 14 1 of 1 1 of 1
Aaron Pico 13 of 29 44% 7 of 23 5 of 5 1 of 1 7 of 21 3 of 5 3 of 3
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 10, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Aaron Pico

Angelo highlights Pico's wrestling and boxing credentials, believing his wrestling will be too much for Murphy. He acknowledges Murphy's technical striking but thinks Pico is more well-rounded and determined now. He compares Pico's potential impact to Kayla Harrison's debut.

"I do think Pico's wrestling is just going to be too much here. Pico also has very good striking."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Aug 12, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Big Brady picks Lerone Murphy to win by decision. He is impressed by Aaron Pico's power and wrestling but questions his competition level. He notes Murphy is undefeated in the UFC with wins over Josh Emmett, Dan Ige, and Edson Barboza. He worries about Murphy's takedown defense but thinks his get-up game is good. He sees this as a 'prove it' spot for Pico and favors Murphy's experience.

"I'm actually going to take Murphy here. ... I'm going to take him to win this fight by decision."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Connor picks Murphy, emphasizing that Murphy is a massive step up in competition for Pico, who has never faced an athlete of Murphy's size, speed, and durability. He notes that Murphy is battle-tested against UFC featherweights and has never lost to a higher level of competition, while Pico's wins are against older or less skilled opponents. Connor believes Murphy's durability and problem-solving skills will allow him to weather Pico's early wrestling and take over as the fight progresses, potentially finishing him.

Pico opened at -150, currently -160; Murphy opened at +130, currently +140
"Murphy is battle tested against UFC featherweights... Pico is going to get his ass down quick, probably, but it is yet to be an actual fight losing weakness."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Aaron Pico

The host believes Pico will remind everyone he is a high-level prospect and deserving of a top-10 ranking. He thinks Murphy taking the fight on short notice is a disadvantage, and expects Pico to control the fight both on the feet and on the ground, grinding out a decision win.

"I believe Pico will remind people that he is still a very highlevel prospect and more than deserving to be in the top 10 of the division"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 13, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

The Guru picks Lerone Murphy over Aaron Pico, citing Murphy's superior technical skills, footwork, and fight IQ. He believes Pico's power and wrestling are threats, but Murphy's counter-grappling and ability to avoid big shots will be key. The Guru notes that Pico has been knocked out before and that Murphy is undefeated in the UFC with experience against dangerous opponents. He also mentions that the betting odds favoring Pico are off, making Murphy a value pick.

Underdog money on Murphy is crazy; could see a finish for Murphy (TKO or decision)
"I'm taking Lone Murphy. I think Lone Murphy beats Aaron Pico. Stylewise, I completely understand why Aaron Pico is problematic to Luron Murphy. He is a tricky style for Lurone Murphy."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Zane picks Murphy, arguing that Pico has never faced an athlete of Murphy's caliber and that Murphy's durability and resourcefulness will be key. He notes that Murphy has poor takedown defense but has never lost a fight due to it, as he figures out opponents as the fight goes on. Zane believes Pico's wrestling is violence-focused and that Murphy will get chances to get back up and land a fight-ending shot, as Pico has been finished before.

Pico opened at -150, currently -160; Murphy opened at +130, currently +140
"Murphy is just a physical presence like Pico has literally never faced... I kind of think Murphy will finish him."
WIN vs Josh Emmett
Decision (unanimous) R5 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Emmett vs. Murphy · Apr 05, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Josh Emmett 0 41 of 143 28% 44 of 149 4 of 11 36% 0 0 3:39
Lerone Murphy 0 84 of 157 53% 117 of 195 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Josh Emmett 0 10 of 28 35% 10 of 28 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:05
Lerone Murphy 0 10 of 24 41% 11 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Josh Emmett 0 2 of 8 25% 3 of 11 2 of 5 40% 0 0 1:50
Lerone Murphy 0 13 of 21 61% 26 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
3 Josh Emmett 0 5 of 25 20% 7 of 28 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:01
Lerone Murphy 0 21 of 36 58% 33 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Josh Emmett 0 13 of 38 34% 13 of 38 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:28
Lerone Murphy 0 22 of 41 53% 26 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Josh Emmett 0 11 of 44 25% 11 of 44 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:15
Lerone Murphy 0 18 of 35 51% 21 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Josh Emmett 41 of 143 28% 29 of 124 6 of 11 6 of 8 40 of 133 1 of 7 0 of 3
Lerone Murphy 84 of 157 53% 37 of 90 17 of 30 30 of 37 75 of 148 9 of 9 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Josh Emmett 10 of 28 35% 6 of 23 3 of 4 1 of 1 10 of 26 0 of 1 0 of 1
Lerone Murphy 10 of 24 41% 5 of 16 3 of 5 2 of 3 10 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Josh Emmett 2 of 8 25% 1 of 7 0 of 0 1 of 1 2 of 6 0 of 1 0 of 1
Lerone Murphy 13 of 21 61% 2 of 7 6 of 9 5 of 5 9 of 17 4 of 4 0 of 0
3 Josh Emmett 5 of 25 20% 3 of 19 2 of 4 0 of 2 5 of 22 0 of 2 0 of 1
Lerone Murphy 21 of 36 58% 11 of 24 3 of 4 7 of 8 16 of 31 5 of 5 0 of 0
4 Josh Emmett 13 of 38 34% 9 of 34 1 of 1 3 of 3 12 of 37 1 of 1 0 of 0
Lerone Murphy 22 of 41 53% 9 of 22 4 of 7 9 of 12 22 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Josh Emmett 11 of 44 25% 10 of 41 0 of 2 1 of 1 11 of 42 0 of 2 0 of 0
Lerone Murphy 18 of 35 51% 10 of 21 1 of 5 7 of 9 18 of 35 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 30, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Angelo picks Lerone Murphy as the overall better fighter, more technical and cleaner. He notes Murphy moves well, has power, and scrambles well after takedowns. He acknowledges Josh Emmett has power and wrestling but doesn't use his wrestling often. Angelo is concerned about Murphy being dropped by Dan Ige but believes Murphy can fight a perfect fight for 25 minutes. He picks Murphy despite the steep odds.

"I am on the lon side 3 to1 favorite again these odds start to seem a little crazy what could go wrong with an undefeated guy fighting an aging vet."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 1, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Big Brady picks Lerone Murphy, noting his career-best performance against Edson Barboza and 25-minute cardio. He believes Josh Emmett, at 40 and on a layoff, is unlikely to win three rounds and will need an early KO. He expects Murphy to outwork Emmett and win a decision.

"I'm going to go with Murphy I'm going to go Murphy to win this fight by decision"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Josh Emmett

Connor picks Emmett, citing Murphy's history of giving opponents chances to land huge shots and his tendency to adjust mid-fight rather than prepare. He compares Emmett to Dan Henderson for his simple, powerful game and notes that Murphy's worst round is always the first, where he often has no plan. Connor trusts that Emmett's power and persistence will catch Murphy, especially given Murphy's vulnerability to being hurt.

Emmett opened +216, now +246. Connor implies the line is reasonable given Emmett's danger.
"I'm gonna stick with the Emmett pick. I understand that perfectly. Yeah, it should be a very winnable fight for LaRone Murphy, but I have seen him in too many fights give opponents the chance to just land huge on …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Murphy is the better fighter and closer to his prime. He will start to pull away in the third and fourth rounds, mixing up his clinch game, wrestling, and technical striking to evade Emmett's power, winning on the scorecards.

decision
"I believe Murphy is the better fighter here and way closer to his Prime and I think that will see Murphy really start to pull away probably in the third and fourth rounds mixing up his clinch game his wrestling …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

The Guru picks Lerone Murphy after changing his mind upon rewatching Emmett fights. He argues Murphy's consistent decision wins show he is reliably better, while Emmett relies on KO power that is sporadic. He notes Emmett's age (40), long layoff, and accumulated damage, and believes Murphy's range, volume, and game-planning will allow him to outwork Emmett over five rounds. He predicts a decision win or a late finish.

Lerone Murphy by decision or finish in rounds 3-5
"I'm going to go with Lrone Murphy. I think he'll grapple as the fight goes on. And Emtt's 40 years old and he's taken a lot of damage."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Zane picks Murphy because he sees many ways for Murphy to win—using range, kicks, and avoiding overextension—while Emmett's path is narrow: a single big shot. He notes Murphy's adaptability and recovery, but acknowledges his tendency to start slow and make mistakes, which could be fatal against Emmett's power. Zane believes Murphy can avoid the one mistake that costs him the fight, given Emmett's predictable offense.

Murphy opened at -264, now -303; Emmett opened +216, now +246. Zane notes the line is not unreasonable but shouldn't get much wider.
"I'm gonna pick LaRone Murphy because I think there are a myriad of ways to beat Josh Emmett... There's only one loss one type of loss to avoid."
WIN vs Dan Ige
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · Oct 26, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Lerone Murphy 0 52 of 100 52% 78 of 133 3 of 5 60% 0 0 2:17
Dan Ige 1 46 of 106 43% 52 of 116 1 of 3 33% 0 2 4:47
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Lerone Murphy 0 17 of 32 53% 18 of 33 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:22
Dan Ige 1 32 of 60 53% 32 of 61 1 of 1 100% 0 1 1:30
2 Lerone Murphy 0 19 of 42 45% 36 of 61 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:57
Dan Ige 0 11 of 29 37% 12 of 31 0 of 1 0% 0 1 0:43
3 Lerone Murphy 0 16 of 26 61% 24 of 39 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:58
Dan Ige 0 3 of 17 17% 8 of 24 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:34
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Lerone Murphy 52 of 100 52% 36 of 77 12 of 17 4 of 6 37 of 80 12 of 16 3 of 4
Dan Ige 46 of 106 43% 35 of 92 5 of 8 6 of 6 32 of 79 6 of 16 8 of 11
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Lerone Murphy 17 of 32 53% 11 of 23 4 of 5 2 of 4 14 of 28 3 of 4 0 of 0
Dan Ige 32 of 60 53% 27 of 53 2 of 4 3 of 3 19 of 39 5 of 11 8 of 10
2 Lerone Murphy 19 of 42 45% 12 of 31 6 of 10 1 of 1 16 of 36 3 of 5 0 of 1
Dan Ige 11 of 29 37% 5 of 22 3 of 4 3 of 3 10 of 28 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Lerone Murphy 16 of 26 61% 13 of 23 2 of 2 1 of 1 7 of 16 6 of 7 3 of 3
Dan Ige 3 of 17 17% 3 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 12 0 of 4 0 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 20, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Angelo picks Lerone Murphy confidently. He praises Murphy's striking, footwork, and power, and believes he is too clean a striker for Dan Ige. He thinks Murphy's ability to mix striking and wrestling will keep Ige guessing. He also notes both fighters are tough and expects the over 2.5 rounds to be solid.

Over 2.5 rounds should be solid.
"Lon Murphy should win too clean of a striker to defensively sound I don't think he's going to get taken down and written out."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Big Brady likes Murphy in this fight, believing he has more paths to win and is better everywhere. He praises Murphy's striking in his last fight against Edson Barboza and notes that Murphy can mix in takedowns, while Ige has shown he can be taken down and controlled. He predicts Murphy will win by decision, doing better work on the feet and mixing in occasional takedowns.

"give me Lon Murphy Lon Murphy by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Cody picks Lerone Murphy, citing his well-rounded skills, reach advantage, and recent win over Edson Barboza. He notes that Ige is undersized, has poor takedown defense, and relies on power that may not translate against a longer, more technical striker. Cody believes Murphy's volume and precision will overwhelm Ige, and that Murphy can mix in takedowns if needed.

"I actually like Laurel Murphy quite a bit"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 24, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Connor picks Murphy, emphasizing that Ige struggles when forced to lead and lacks range tools. Murphy's jab and footwork can keep Ige at distance, and his size and reach advantage should allow him to control the fight. Connor notes that Ige is dangerous in the pocket but Murphy can avoid that by fighting at range.

Murphy opened at -192, currently -260; Ige opened at +169, currently +221
"I think this is just a really good fight for Laurent Murphy."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Daniel Vreeland picks Lerone Murphy to win by decision, highlighting Murphy's volume striking and top-five potential. He notes that Murphy out-landed Edson Barboza with 220 significant strikes over five rounds and that Ige's toughness and power are his main advantages. Vreeland believes Murphy's skill set and minute-winning ability will carry him to a clear decision win.

"I think it's going to be a clear Lon Murphy decision win"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Lucrative James picks Lerone Murphy to win, citing Murphy's superior technical striking, fight IQ, and grappling upside. He believes Murphy is the better all-around fighter and can win via striking or takedowns. He acknowledges Ige's power and experience but thinks Murphy's calculated approach will prevail. He expects Murphy to look good and possibly call for a title shot.

"I think luron Murphy's going to be too smart for him too calculated"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Murphy is the better overall fighter with slicker striking and more damaging offense on the feet. He can also grind Ige out in clinch positions and take him down. Ige's boxing will be muzzled by Murphy's superior athleticism. Murphy wins on the scorecards.

"Murphy grinds his fight out and wins it on the scorecards"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Paul picks Murphy, emphasizing his reach advantage and superior striking. He notes that Ige struggles against bigger fighters and has never landed over 88 significant strikes in a fight. Paul believes Murphy's length and technical boxing will keep Ige at range, and that Murphy's takedown defense has improved. He also mentions that Ige's wrestling is not a threat.

"Murphy will be the pick for me"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

The Guru picks Lerone Murphy by decision, arguing that Murphy's technical, well-rounded style is a bad matchup for Dan Ige. He notes that Ige struggles against fighters who can mix in grappling and fight at range, and that Murphy's jab, low kicks, and clinch work will outpoint Ige. He compares Murphy to fighters like Calvin Kattar and Movsar Evloev who have beaten Ige with technical breakdowns. The Guru acknowledges Ige's power but believes Murphy's discipline will earn a 29-28 decision.

"I'm going to go with Lerone Murphy by decision 29-28 maybe a random scorecard goes out there for Ige but Murphy will have won it."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 24, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Zane agrees with Connor, noting that Ige is a counter puncher who struggles when forced to lead. Murphy's jab and range management should neutralize Ige's offense. Zane points to Ige's losses to fighters who kept him at range and thinks Murphy can replicate that.

Murphy opened at -192, currently -260; Ige opened at +169, currently +221
"I totally agree. Like just Ige is dangerous. If you give him something to counter, he's a lot less dangerous if you make him actually initiate of his own accord."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 26, 2024 (fight day)
Lerone Murphy

Zane expected Murphy to win but noted he took the hardest path, getting caught early by a huge counter due to overstepping. He credited Murphy's durability and conditioning for bouncing back and winning. Zane emphasized that Ige is a dangerous pocket fighter with a great chin, but Murphy minded the pocket and won scrambles to secure the win.

"the win that i had expected him to get but it was he took the hardest path to get there"
WIN vs Edson Barboza
Decision (unanimous) (49–46, 50–45, 50–45) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy · May 18, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Lerone Murphy 0 79 of 242 32% 79 of 242 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:17
Edson Barboza 0 220 of 364 60% 259 of 410 4 of 6 66% 0 0 5:19
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Lerone Murphy 0 25 of 53 47% 25 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Edson Barboza 0 34 of 62 54% 38 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
2 Lerone Murphy 0 17 of 44 38% 17 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Edson Barboza 0 41 of 75 54% 56 of 93 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:26
3 Lerone Murphy 0 11 of 42 26% 11 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:17
Edson Barboza 0 48 of 79 60% 52 of 86 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:25
4 Lerone Murphy 0 15 of 56 26% 15 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Edson Barboza 0 59 of 93 63% 65 of 99 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:25
5 Lerone Murphy 0 11 of 47 23% 11 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Edson Barboza 0 38 of 55 69% 48 of 66 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:49
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Lerone Murphy 79 of 242 32% 38 of 189 15 of 21 26 of 32 77 of 239 2 of 3 0 of 0
Edson Barboza 220 of 364 60% 172 of 308 27 of 34 21 of 22 205 of 344 13 of 17 2 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Lerone Murphy 25 of 53 47% 14 of 39 2 of 2 9 of 12 24 of 51 1 of 2 0 of 0
Edson Barboza 34 of 62 54% 26 of 52 6 of 8 2 of 2 32 of 59 0 of 0 2 of 3
2 Lerone Murphy 17 of 44 38% 5 of 31 5 of 5 7 of 8 17 of 44 0 of 0 0 of 0
Edson Barboza 41 of 75 54% 36 of 69 4 of 5 1 of 1 37 of 70 4 of 5 0 of 0
3 Lerone Murphy 11 of 42 26% 5 of 32 2 of 5 4 of 5 10 of 41 1 of 1 0 of 0
Edson Barboza 48 of 79 60% 40 of 70 6 of 7 2 of 2 43 of 73 5 of 6 0 of 0
4 Lerone Murphy 15 of 56 26% 7 of 46 4 of 5 4 of 5 15 of 56 0 of 0 0 of 0
Edson Barboza 59 of 93 63% 42 of 75 7 of 8 10 of 10 58 of 91 1 of 2 0 of 0
5 Lerone Murphy 11 of 47 23% 7 of 41 2 of 4 2 of 2 11 of 47 0 of 0 0 of 0
Edson Barboza 38 of 55 69% 28 of 42 4 of 6 6 of 7 35 of 51 3 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked May 12, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Edson Barboza

Angelo leans Edson Barboza due to his veteran savvy, well-rounded skills, and recent win over a similar young striker in Sodiq Yusuff. He compares Barboza to Charles Oliveira in terms of danger everywhere. However, he worries about Barboza's age (38) and chin. Lerone Murphy is undefeated with good footwork and power, but Barboza's experience and ability to mix in takedowns could be the difference.

"I'm still going to lean Edson Barbosa we just watched him beat sadique yusf"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked May 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Cody acknowledges the similarities to the Yusuff fight but notes Murphy doesn't gas like Yusuff; Murphy conserves energy and improves in later rounds. He points out Barboza is 38 and has taken a lot of damage, and speed declines with age. Cody is concerned about Murphy's close split decision over Gabriel Santos, but ultimately picks Murphy, citing Father Time as an ally.

"I think I'm going to go Murphy man."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked May 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Murphy has potential and mixes his game well, with solid cardio and grappling. Barboza is 38 and cutting to 145, which may affect his durability. Murphy can use clinch and takedowns to put Barboza in uncomfortable positions. However, this is Murphy's first five-round fight, and Barboza's experience is a factor. Expects Murphy to grind out a decision.

"I'm going to lean on the Murphy side I think that we see him grind out Barbosa here"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Edson Barboza

Paul sees this matchup similar to Barboza's win over Sodiq Yusuff, where Barboza's veteran savvy and cardio allowed him to take over late. He notes Murphy hasn't been tested in five rounds and lacks the volume that Yusuff had. Paul believes Barboza is a tough out for prospects without stout wrestling, and Murphy's wrestling isn't elite enough to neutralize Barboza's striking.

"I think it's pretty clear dog or pass here Edson Barbosa again just he's becoming that guy just like killing prospects as they try to rise up the ranks."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Edson Barboza

The MMA Guru picks Edson Barboza to win by body kick TKO in round three or four over Lerone Murphy. He argues that Murphy is less powerful and less dangerous than Sadik Yusuf, who Barboza beat. He notes Murphy's tendency to edge by wins and lack of a finishing move, while Barboza has experience in main events and the cardio to break Murphy down. He expects Barboza's speed and technique to prevail.

body kick TKO
"I'm actually going to go with Edson baroza getting a body kick TKO in round three or four after Lon gets Scrappy with him and starts to slow down"
WIN vs Josh Culibao
Decision (unanimous) (30–26, 30–26, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura · Jul 22, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Lerone Murphy 1 59 of 109 54% 87 of 144 3 of 5 60% 2 0 7:38
Josh Culibao 0 23 of 59 38% 40 of 77 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:30
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Lerone Murphy 0 18 of 37 48% 18 of 37 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:13
Josh Culibao 0 11 of 34 32% 20 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
2 Lerone Murphy 0 12 of 23 52% 24 of 38 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:39
Josh Culibao 0 7 of 16 43% 14 of 24 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:48
3 Lerone Murphy 1 29 of 49 59% 45 of 69 2 of 3 66% 2 0 3:46
Josh Culibao 0 5 of 9 55% 6 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:34
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Lerone Murphy 59 of 109 54% 37 of 81 15 of 18 7 of 10 24 of 61 12 of 14 23 of 34
Josh Culibao 23 of 59 38% 16 of 48 5 of 6 2 of 5 19 of 53 4 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Lerone Murphy 18 of 37 48% 8 of 25 5 of 6 5 of 6 15 of 33 3 of 4 0 of 0
Josh Culibao 11 of 34 32% 7 of 26 2 of 3 2 of 5 10 of 33 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Lerone Murphy 12 of 23 52% 6 of 15 4 of 5 2 of 3 7 of 18 3 of 3 2 of 2
Josh Culibao 7 of 16 43% 5 of 14 2 of 2 0 of 0 5 of 13 2 of 3 0 of 0
3 Lerone Murphy 29 of 49 59% 23 of 41 6 of 7 0 of 1 2 of 10 6 of 7 21 of 32
Josh Culibao 5 of 9 55% 4 of 8 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 7 1 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Angelo favors Lerone Murphy's fluid striking and power, noting that Josh Culibao gets hit often. He mentions Murphy's takedown defense is low but he scrambles well, and the judges seem to favor him. He has a half-unit bet on Murphy at -145.

half unit bet at -145
"I've got to go with larone here though his striking is insanely fluid he's got a ton of power"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 18, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Big Brady picks Lerone Murphy by decision. He notes this is a different matchup than Murphy's last fight against a grappler, as Culibao has zero takedowns in the UFC. He thinks Murphy's striking and volume will be key, and he has hometown advantage in London. He believes even if it's close, the judges will favor the undefeated fighter in London.

by decision
"give me Murphy give me Murphy by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 19, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Cody picks Murphy, noting his well-roundedness, accurate striking, and wrestling. He thinks Murphy's volume and home crowd advantage will secure a decision. He is surprised by the line movement and thinks Murphy is being disrespected.

"minus 130 seems very very fair for Laurel Murphy so he's a guy that I've had circled"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jul 20, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Daniel leans toward Lerone Murphy, primarily due to potential hometown judging bias in London. He acknowledges Josh Culibao is a tough, scrappy fighter who finds ways to win, but thinks Murphy's volume and well-roundedness give him a slight edge. He notes that if the fight were in neutral territory, he'd view it as a pick'em, but in the UK, he gives Murphy a slight advantage. He expects a close fight, possibly a split decision.

Daniel says 'I'm gonna go later on by split decision' and mentions the line: Murphy -130, Culibao +110. He does not bet.
"I'm gonna go later on by split decision"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Jul 18, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Josh Culibao

James leans towards Josh Culibao as the underdog side. He thinks the fight is close and likely to go to a split decision. He notes that Culibao may have some advantages like takedowns but is open on the feet. He mentions that Murphy has power but Culibao has good recovery. James says whoever is the underdog is probably the side, and at +130, Culibao has value.

"I think whoever is an underdog in that spot is probably the side so I'd say cool about the side here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jul 17, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

The host leans with Lerone Murphy, citing his physical advantages, explosiveness, speed, and power. He expects Murphy to land big shots and possibly knockdowns to thwart Culibao's pressure. He predicts a decision win but says he'll likely stay off the fight for betting.

likely stay off it for betting
"I'm gonna lean on the Murphy side here I believe his physical advantages his explosivity his speed his power will allow him to land those big shots on [ __ ] bow and grind this fight out"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 19, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Paul picks Murphy, citing his heart and ability to overcome adversity in his last fight. He thinks Murphy's jab and accuracy will win rounds, and that Culibao's level of opposition is low. He expects Murphy to chip away and win.

"I will take a little Murphy at home to get the job done"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

The MMA Guru picks Lerone Murphy, initially considering Josh Culibao but reasoning that Murphy's poor performance against Gabriel Santos was due to short notice and injuries. He believes Murphy's composure and technical striking will outpoint Culibao, and notes the UK crowd advantage. The Guru also mentions Murphy's ability to find top position and his difficulty to finish.

"I've got to go with larone Murphy"
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · Mar 18, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Lerone Murphy 0 93 of 161 57% 115 of 183 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:18
Gabriel Santos 0 69 of 122 56% 87 of 141 5 of 11 45% 0 0 4:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Lerone Murphy 0 33 of 58 56% 37 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:59
Gabriel Santos 0 36 of 54 66% 37 of 55 2 of 4 50% 0 0 0:39
2 Lerone Murphy 0 25 of 44 56% 36 of 55 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:14
Gabriel Santos 0 13 of 32 40% 26 of 46 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:45
3 Lerone Murphy 0 35 of 59 59% 42 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Gabriel Santos 0 20 of 36 55% 24 of 40 2 of 5 40% 0 0 1:36
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Lerone Murphy 93 of 161 57% 59 of 117 27 of 37 7 of 7 77 of 144 12 of 12 4 of 5
Gabriel Santos 69 of 122 56% 32 of 73 24 of 34 13 of 15 55 of 105 14 of 15 0 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Lerone Murphy 33 of 58 56% 18 of 39 12 of 16 3 of 3 29 of 54 2 of 2 2 of 2
Gabriel Santos 36 of 54 66% 16 of 31 13 of 16 7 of 7 29 of 45 7 of 8 0 of 1
2 Lerone Murphy 25 of 44 56% 13 of 30 10 of 12 2 of 2 18 of 36 5 of 5 2 of 3
Gabriel Santos 13 of 32 40% 8 of 22 3 of 8 2 of 2 9 of 27 4 of 4 0 of 1
3 Lerone Murphy 35 of 59 59% 28 of 48 5 of 9 2 of 2 30 of 54 5 of 5 0 of 0
Gabriel Santos 20 of 36 55% 8 of 20 8 of 10 4 of 6 17 of 33 3 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Mar 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Angelo thinks Murphy should win because he is the better striker with good footwork and power, and he has a full camp. However, he is wary of Murphy's layoff and the short-notice opponent. He notes Murphy's takedown defense is low but he scrambles well. He is staying away from betting due to the uncertainty.

"I do think larone Murphy wins this fight these odds are probably where they should be minus 275 was a little steep."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Big Brady picks Murphy, citing his power (knockout wins over Makwan Amirkhani and Ricardo Ramos) and Santos' hittability and questionable durability. He notes Santos is dangerous everywhere but took the fight on short notice and is making a long flight. He predicts a second-round knockout, but acknowledges Santos could have success early.

"I'm leaning towards Murphy to get that knockout win here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Cody picks Murphy, citing his precise striking, lateral movement, and high ring IQ. He notes Murphy has fought good wrestlers and defended takedowns well. He thinks Santos, on short notice, won't be able to take Murphy down and will lose a decision. He mentions Murphy's 16-month layoff is a concern but believes he's still a good fighter.

"I like Laurel Murphy because all those facts are true... I think that Murphy just moves laterally stays out of the way sticks and moves lands the more precise shots and uh eventually wins the fight"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Mar 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Connor picks Murphy but expects a close fight. He notes that Murphy starts slow but is resourceful and has great cardio, often coming back to win. Santos is a solid, well-rounded fighter but may run out of ideas as the fight goes on. Connor also mentions the short-notice factor favoring Murphy.

"I'm gonna take Murphy, but I like the fight a lot."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lean picked Mar 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Jacob picks Murphy but with low confidence due to his defensive wrestling holes. He thinks Murphy is the better striker but if Santos gets the fight to the ground, it could be trouble. He notes Murphy's takedown defense has been improving. He is not betting but would feel better if Murphy stuffs the first takedown.

"my confidence level right now I think those odds are correct it's probably like a five or or six for larone."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Murphy is explosive with big power and a good calf kick, but has grappling flaws and a layoff due to head injury. Santos is a short-notice replacement with a wild pressure style and defensive holes. Murphy's speed and power should exploit Santos's striking deficiencies, leading to a knockout. The fight doesn't go to decision is the favorite spot.

fight doesn't go to decision
"I think it's going to be that speed and an explosiveness of LaRon Murphy that'll allow him to take advantage of the Striking defense deficiencies in Gabriel Santos's game"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Mar 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Paul picks Murphy but hesitantly, as he hasn't done full research on Santos. He says Murphy is a solid fighter on a good run, but the layoff and short-notice opponent are unknowns. He says the pick is Murphy but could change after looking at tape.

"for the purpose of the show I'll pick Laurel Murphy but uh that could change based on me looking up some tape"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

The MMA Guru picks Lerone Murphy over Gabriel Santos, acknowledging Santos is a dangerous prospect but noting he is on short notice. Murphy has a full camp and has shown composure against tough opponents like Zubaira Tukhugov. He predicts Murphy will win a 29-28 decision after a rough first round, trusting his experience and well-rounded game.

Murphy wins by decision 29-28
"I'm going with Lerone Murphy over Gabriel Santos"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Mar 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Zane also picks Murphy, noting that Murphy's ability to adapt and his physicality will be key. He points out that Santos looked good in his LFA fight but may struggle with Murphy's pressure and clinch work. Zane expects momentum shifts and a competitive fight.

"I'll take Murphy as well."
KO (knee) R2 0:14 · UFC 267: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira · Oct 30, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Lerone Murphy 0 4 of 6 66% 12 of 16 5 of 7 71% 0 0 4:05
Makwan Amirkhani 1 4 of 5 80% 7 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Lerone Murphy 0 3 of 4 75% 11 of 14 5 of 6 83% 0 0 4:05
Makwan Amirkhani 0 0 of 0 --- 3 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
2 Lerone Murphy 0 1 of 2 50% 1 of 2 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Makwan Amirkhani 1 4 of 5 80% 4 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Lerone Murphy 4 of 6 66% 3 of 5 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 4
Makwan Amirkhani 4 of 5 80% 4 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Lerone Murphy 3 of 4 75% 3 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 4
Makwan Amirkhani 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Lerone Murphy 1 of 2 50% 0 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Makwan Amirkhani 4 of 5 80% 4 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 3
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 26, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Big Brady picks Lerone Murphy to win by decision. He explains that Amirkhani is dangerous early with submissions but has poor cardio and gasses after the first round. Murphy is well-rounded with good striking and solid ground game. If Murphy survives the first round, he will take over and win a decision, likely dropping the first round. He suggests live betting Murphy if he survives early.

Murphy by decision; live betting Murphy after first round
"I'm going to pick him to win by decision i think maquon's very tough but i think he's i think he's a gasser."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 27, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Cody agrees Murphy wins but suggests betting live because Amirkhani usually doesn't get blown out early. He notes Amirkhani has takedowns in his last 9 fights but fades as fight goes on. Murphy's cardio and ring IQ should take over in later rounds. He prefers to wait for a better price live.

"i think i can just improve it by waiting three to five minutes"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 28, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Daniel picks Lerone Murphy, citing his heart and improvement. He notes Amirkhani fades badly after the first round due to health issues. Daniel believes if Murphy survives the early takedowns, he will pick Amirkhani apart. He highlights Murphy's ability to scramble back to his feet. Daniel predicts a third-round knockout.

predicts third-round knockout and 50k bonus
"i think euron murphy's going to knock up machuan amerikani out probably third round"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 28, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Murphy will keep the fight standing and punish Amirkhani with leg kicks and power. Amirkhani needs takedowns but Murphy's takedown defense and striking should prevail. Murphy's power will be too much as the fight goes on, likely finishing in the third round.

Murphy by KO +150, Murphy in round 3 +850, under 2.5 rounds +100, fight doesn't go to decision -120.
"I think that lauren murphy survives the early onslaught on the ground uh keeps the fight vertical for the second and third round but eventually finds that finish in the third round."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 27, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Paul picks Murphy by decision at +165, noting Amirkhani's durability and wrestling. He thinks Murphy's striking and underrated wrestling will be too much, and Amirkhani will struggle to get takedowns. He expects Murphy to pick him apart on the feet and win a decision.

Murphy by decision +165 (DraftKings)
"laurel murphy by decision would probably be the way to attack this one"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 24, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

The MMA Guru picks Lerone Murphy to win by TKO. He criticizes Makwan Amirkhani's mindset and cardio, noting that Amirkhani gassed against a short-notice opponent. He highlights Murphy's takedown defense, physical strength, and composure. He predicts Murphy will stuff takedowns until Amirkhani gasses, then finish with ground and pound. He also mentions Murphy's good knees in the clinch and body shots.

ko by ground and pound
"lauren murphy gets this one down he's got a strong base he's a physical specimen very strong for the featherweight division"
Makwan Amirkhani - Fight History
LOSS vs Jack Shore
Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 4:27 · UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · Mar 18, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jack Shore 0 28 of 46 60% 45 of 64 1 of 1 100% 1 0 2:15
Makwan Amirkhani 0 10 of 24 41% 14 of 28 1 of 3 33% 0 0 3:31
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jack Shore 0 5 of 14 35% 19 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:33
Makwan Amirkhani 0 6 of 8 75% 9 of 11 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:14
2 Jack Shore 0 23 of 32 71% 26 of 35 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:42
Makwan Amirkhani 0 4 of 16 25% 5 of 17 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:17
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jack Shore 28 of 46 60% 23 of 40 4 of 4 1 of 2 22 of 39 2 of 2 4 of 5
Makwan Amirkhani 10 of 24 41% 6 of 19 4 of 5 0 of 0 6 of 20 4 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jack Shore 5 of 14 35% 3 of 11 1 of 1 1 of 2 3 of 11 1 of 1 1 of 2
Makwan Amirkhani 6 of 8 75% 3 of 5 3 of 3 0 of 0 3 of 5 3 of 3 0 of 0
2 Jack Shore 23 of 32 71% 20 of 29 3 of 3 0 of 0 19 of 28 1 of 1 3 of 3
Makwan Amirkhani 4 of 16 25% 3 of 14 1 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 15 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jack Shore

Angelo is confident in Jack Shore, believing he will bounce back from his first loss. He thinks Shore has quality wins and evolving skills. He notes Amirkhani has been getting finished lately and his chin is questionable. He expects Shore to win via takedowns or striking.

"I trust Jack Shore to get it done."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jack Shore

Big Brady picks Shore confidently, noting Amirkhani has terrible cardio and is a one-round fighter. He believes Shore can survive the first round and then take over with superior striking and grappling. He predicts a third-round submission as Amirkhani gasses. He sees no path for Amirkhani unless he submits Shore in round one.

"I gotta absolutely pick Jack Shore I'm gonna pick Jack short to win by third round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jack Shore

Cody picks Shore, noting Amirkhani is a one-round fighter with cardio issues. He thinks Shore can survive the first round, then take over with his high work rate and cardio. He mentions Amirkhani's submission threat in round one is real but low probability. He doesn't love minus 500 and prefers live betting or round three props.

Jack Shore round 3 (plus 500)
"Jack Shore's got the kind of cardio to replicate that same game plan but at this money line it's like I don't want to just hope he's made those corrections"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jack Shore

Connor sees Jack Shore as a fundamentally sound, process-driven fighter who will find the most straightforward path to victory. He contrasts Shore's consistency and ability to adjust with Makwan Amirkhani's pattern of gassing after early aggression. Connor believes Shore's jab and pressure will neutralize Amirkhani's wild offense.

"Shore is a guy who will find the most straightforward path to beating you and stick to it."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jack Shore

Jacob is very confident in Jack Shore, calling him one of his most confident plays on the card. He thinks Amirkhani is broken and quits if his early takedowns fail. He notes Shore defended takedowns well against Ricky Simon and should handle Amirkhani's wrestling. He has bets on Shore for premium members.

bets on Shore for premium members
"this is one of the um this one more my more confident plays on this card."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Jack Shore

Shore is a cardio machine with a grapple-heavy approach, coming off his first loss. Amirkhani is dangerous early with his anaconda choke but fades if he doesn't get the finish. Shore's defensive grappling and pace should allow him to survive the early onslaught and take over in the second and third rounds, likely finishing inside the distance.

Shore inside the distance, round 3 prop
"I'm fully expecting it to go into the second round and I think from there we're going to see that momentum swing"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jack Shore

Paul picks Shore, citing Amirkhani's cardio issues and Shore's durability. He notes Shore moving up to 145 after a bad cut could help. He thinks if Shore survives round one, he can tire Amirkhani and win by decision or late finish. He says minus 500 is unappealing and prefers a live entry.

"I'm gonna pick Jack Shore here... but at mine is 500 it's like I don't really think there's much meat on the bone pre-flop"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Jack Shore

The MMA Guru picks Jack Shore over Makwan Amirkhani, despite the odds. He notes Amirkhani is dangerous in the first round with submissions but fades as the fight goes on. Shore has composure in grappling and a massive advantage on the feet with straight punches and a nasty knee. He predicts Shore will survive early grappling exchanges and win in later rounds, possibly by finish.

"I'm going with Jack Shore anywhere mukwan American is dangerous in the first round but Jack Shaw has got such a composer composure to him in the grappling"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jack Shore

Zane agrees with Connor, noting that Shore is a consistent, intelligent fighter who makes the right decisions. He points out that Amirkhani is creative but inconsistent, and Shore's fundamental soundness will prevail. Zane expects Shore to let Amirkhani take risks early, then punish him with jabs and counters.

"It's a pretty easy fight to pick for Jack Shore."
LOSS vs Jonathan Pearce
TKO (punches) R2 4:10 · UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall · Jul 23, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jonathan Pearce 0 11 of 22 50% 12 of 23 3 of 7 42% 0 0 1:25
Makwan Amirkhani 0 90 of 112 80% 144 of 178 4 of 5 80% 0 0 4:46
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jonathan Pearce 0 6 of 11 54% 7 of 12 3 of 7 42% 0 0 1:25
Makwan Amirkhani 0 46 of 51 90% 61 of 67 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:39
2 Jonathan Pearce 0 5 of 11 45% 5 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Makwan Amirkhani 0 44 of 61 72% 83 of 111 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:07
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jonathan Pearce 11 of 22 50% 9 of 19 0 of 1 2 of 2 11 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
Makwan Amirkhani 90 of 112 80% 75 of 94 11 of 14 4 of 4 16 of 28 37 of 37 37 of 47
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jonathan Pearce 6 of 11 54% 4 of 8 0 of 1 2 of 2 6 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Makwan Amirkhani 46 of 51 90% 43 of 47 2 of 3 1 of 1 3 of 7 37 of 37 6 of 7
2 Jonathan Pearce 5 of 11 45% 5 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0 5 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Makwan Amirkhani 44 of 61 72% 32 of 47 9 of 11 3 of 3 13 of 21 0 of 0 31 of 40
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Jonathan Pearce

Angelo picks Jonathan Pearce, noting it's a grappler vs grappler matchup and it will come down to who shoots first. He believes Pearce will initiate the takedowns and has a high pace. He mentions Amirkhani just submitted a better wrestler in Mike Grundy, and all of Pearce's losses are grappling-based, so he suggests a live bet on Amirkhani if he gets early takedowns.

live bet on Amirkhani if he gets early takedowns
"i think that's jonathan pierce so he's the pick but let's not forget amira connie just submitted mike grundy"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jul 18, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Makwan Amirkhani

Big Brady picks Makwan Amirkhani for the upset by early submission. He likes Jonathan Pearce's style but notes Pearce often gets in bad spots on the mat. Amirkhani has dangerous submissions and good wrestling. However, Amirkhani's cardio is a concern; if he doesn't finish in round one, Pearce takes over. He suggests a live bet on Pearce if Amirkhani doesn't finish round one.

Amirkhani by submission in round 1; live bet Pearce if Amirkhani doesn't finish round 1
"i think i'm going to take mac on here for the upset to get an early submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jul 20, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Makwan Amirkhani

Cody picks Makwan Amirkhani, agreeing the line is fraudulent. He notes Pearce's striking defense is poor and he almost got submitted in his last fight. Cody thinks Amirkhani is dangerous early and can submit Pearce if he shoots. He also notes Amirkhani has good wrestling and could take Pearce down. Cody likes the moneyline at +170.

"i like this card i like a lot of the favorites on this card but there's going to be favorites that are gonna do [ __ ] in the apple pie and jsp looks like he almost did it to …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 20, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jonathan Pearce

Daniel Levi picks Jonathan Pearce, emphasizing his high pace and ability to put up large strike and takedown numbers. He acknowledges that Amirkhani is dangerous in the first round with his wrestling and submissions, but notes that Amirkhani gasses out due to health issues. Levi believes if Pearce can survive the first round, his pace will be too much in the later rounds.

"if he does get past the first round um i think that the pace for jsp is gonna be too much in the second and third"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 20, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jonathan Pearce

Pearce has the striking advantage, overall MMA advantage, and cardio advantage. Amirkhani's only threat is the anaconda choke. Pearce's team will have him prepared. Pearce can finish later or win a decision. I might pull the trigger at -200.

"give me Pierce give me Pierce either later finish or decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jul 20, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Makwan Amirkhani

Paul picks Makwan Amirkhani at +170, calling it a dogger pass. He thinks the line is off and the fight is closer to 50-50. Paul notes Pearce's cardio looked poor in his last fight and that Amirkhani is dangerous on the ground. He believes if Pearce takes Amirkhani down, he'll be in trouble. Paul also likes Amirkhani by submission at +350.

Amirkhani by submission +350
"i took mac one um on the money line plus 170. i just think that this is more of like a 50 50 fight"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked Jul 18, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Makwan Amirkhani

The MMA Guru picks Makwan Amirkhani as an underdog, noting he always likes him but often loses when picking him. He believes Amirkhani is dangerous in the first round with submissions, and Jonathan Pearce leaves himself in bad positions during scrambles. Pearce's pressure and cardio are good, but his technical scrambles are not. The Guru expects an anaconda choke finish early.

anaconda choke
"i'm going to go makwana mikani getting it done early with a submission"
WIN vs Mike Grundy
Technical Submission (anaconda choke) R1 0:57 · UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Aspinall · Mar 19, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Makwan Amirkhani 0 0 of 3 0% 0 of 3 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:31
Mike Grundy 0 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:15
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Makwan Amirkhani 0 0 of 3 0% 0 of 3 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:31
Mike Grundy 0 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:15
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Makwan Amirkhani 0 of 3 0% 0 of 2 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Mike Grundy 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Makwan Amirkhani 0 of 3 0% 0 of 2 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Mike Grundy 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 12, 2022 (7 days before fight)
Mike Grundy

Angelo picks Mike Grundy, believing he will be more disciplined in sticking to wrestling. He notes that Grundy's striking is poor, but if he dives for takedowns, he can win. He thinks Amirkhani is a better striker but may get taken down when he tries to strike. He expects Grundy to take damage on the way in but ultimately win.

"i do like mike grundy to win here but he's probably going to take a little bit of damage on the way in"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Mar 14, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Mike Grundy

Big Brady picks Mike Grundy to win by decision, but expresses low confidence. He notes both fighters have bad cardio, but Grundy has slightly better gas tank (7-10 minutes vs 5). He favors Grundy's striking and believes Grundy can dictate where the fight takes place. Brady says it's a tricky fight and he wants nothing to do with it.

"i gotta go grundy here just because of that i think grundy is going to be able to dictate where this fight takes place"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 16, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Mike Grundy

Cody picks Grundy, citing his better striking and Amirkhani's poor cardio. He thinks Grundy's wrestling will neutralize Amirkhani's takedowns, and that Grundy's power will be the difference in a striking battle. He is cautious due to Grundy's own cardio issues.

"i'm gonna lean towards grundy here myself"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Mar 17, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Mike Grundy

Daniel Levi picks Mike Grundy confidently, citing Makwan Amirkhani's decline in confidence and cardio, as well as a recent brutal knockout. He believes Grundy's wrestling and durability will overwhelm Amirkhani, who has one round of gas and has been figured out. Levi expects Grundy to win by knockout or submission, noting that Amirkhani is vulnerable after his last KO. He also mentions Grundy's power and submission threats.

Grundy by KO/TKO +750; Grundy by submission +450
"grundy all day long i'll let you all decide by which method"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Mar 16, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Mike Grundy

Grundy has a more reliable gas tank and power striking, while Amirkhani tends to fold when things go wrong. Grundy attempted 20 takedowns in his last fight, showing relentless pressure. Amirkhani may struggle to get Grundy to the ground, and on the feet, Grundy has the advantage. I lean Grundy, but the line is getting out of whack near -200. I'll sprinkle on Grundy by KO at +750 and Grundy in round 3 at +1400.

Grundy by KO (+750); Grundy in round 3 (+1400)
"I'm going to lean with the Mike Grundy side but I'll have a little sprinkles on a couple of his props."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 16, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Mike Grundy

Paul picks Grundy, arguing that Amirkhani's only good round is the first if he gets takedowns, but Grundy's wrestling is good enough to stop that. He thinks both will tire, but Grundy has better striking and power. He notes Amirkhani is likely fighting for his job.

"i got grundy"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Mike Grundy

The Guru picks Mike Grundy, citing his grappling strength and durability. He believes Makwan Amirkhani lacks grit and gas tank, and will fade as the fight goes on. He predicts Grundy will survive an early grappling onslaught, then take over in round two and finish with a TKO against the cage in round three. He notes both are fighting for their careers.

third round TKO
"i'm going to go with mike grundy here... mcquann's gassed out in round three and mike grundy puts him away standing tko"
LOSS vs Lerone Murphy
KO (knee) R2 0:14 · UFC 267: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira · Oct 30, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Lerone Murphy 0 4 of 6 66% 12 of 16 5 of 7 71% 0 0 4:05
Makwan Amirkhani 1 4 of 5 80% 7 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Lerone Murphy 0 3 of 4 75% 11 of 14 5 of 6 83% 0 0 4:05
Makwan Amirkhani 0 0 of 0 --- 3 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
2 Lerone Murphy 0 1 of 2 50% 1 of 2 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Makwan Amirkhani 1 4 of 5 80% 4 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Lerone Murphy 4 of 6 66% 3 of 5 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 4
Makwan Amirkhani 4 of 5 80% 4 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Lerone Murphy 3 of 4 75% 3 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 4
Makwan Amirkhani 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Lerone Murphy 1 of 2 50% 0 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Makwan Amirkhani 4 of 5 80% 4 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 3
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 26, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Big Brady picks Lerone Murphy to win by decision. He explains that Amirkhani is dangerous early with submissions but has poor cardio and gasses after the first round. Murphy is well-rounded with good striking and solid ground game. If Murphy survives the first round, he will take over and win a decision, likely dropping the first round. He suggests live betting Murphy if he survives early.

Murphy by decision; live betting Murphy after first round
"I'm going to pick him to win by decision i think maquon's very tough but i think he's i think he's a gasser."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 27, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Cody agrees Murphy wins but suggests betting live because Amirkhani usually doesn't get blown out early. He notes Amirkhani has takedowns in his last 9 fights but fades as fight goes on. Murphy's cardio and ring IQ should take over in later rounds. He prefers to wait for a better price live.

"i think i can just improve it by waiting three to five minutes"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 28, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Daniel picks Lerone Murphy, citing his heart and improvement. He notes Amirkhani fades badly after the first round due to health issues. Daniel believes if Murphy survives the early takedowns, he will pick Amirkhani apart. He highlights Murphy's ability to scramble back to his feet. Daniel predicts a third-round knockout.

predicts third-round knockout and 50k bonus
"i think euron murphy's going to knock up machuan amerikani out probably third round"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 28, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Murphy will keep the fight standing and punish Amirkhani with leg kicks and power. Amirkhani needs takedowns but Murphy's takedown defense and striking should prevail. Murphy's power will be too much as the fight goes on, likely finishing in the third round.

Murphy by KO +150, Murphy in round 3 +850, under 2.5 rounds +100, fight doesn't go to decision -120.
"I think that lauren murphy survives the early onslaught on the ground uh keeps the fight vertical for the second and third round but eventually finds that finish in the third round."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 27, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Paul picks Murphy by decision at +165, noting Amirkhani's durability and wrestling. He thinks Murphy's striking and underrated wrestling will be too much, and Amirkhani will struggle to get takedowns. He expects Murphy to pick him apart on the feet and win a decision.

Murphy by decision +165 (DraftKings)
"laurel murphy by decision would probably be the way to attack this one"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 24, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

The MMA Guru picks Lerone Murphy to win by TKO. He criticizes Makwan Amirkhani's mindset and cardio, noting that Amirkhani gassed against a short-notice opponent. He highlights Murphy's takedown defense, physical strength, and composure. He predicts Murphy will stuff takedowns until Amirkhani gasses, then finish with ground and pound. He also mentions Murphy's good knees in the clinch and body shots.

ko by ground and pound
"lauren murphy gets this one down he's got a strong base he's a physical specimen very strong for the featherweight division"
LOSS vs Kamuela Kirk
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Sakai · Jun 05, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kamuela Kirk 0 20 of 49 40% 25 of 56 5 of 9 55% 0 0 6:50
Makwan Amirkhani 0 28 of 63 44% 100 of 143 0 of 0 --- 3 0 1:34
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kamuela Kirk 0 6 of 16 37% 6 of 16 2 of 5 40% 0 0 1:44
Makwan Amirkhani 0 11 of 23 47% 19 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
2 Kamuela Kirk 0 6 of 20 30% 8 of 24 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:51
Makwan Amirkhani 0 13 of 27 48% 46 of 66 0 of 0 --- 3 0 0:00
3 Kamuela Kirk 0 8 of 13 61% 11 of 16 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:15
Makwan Amirkhani 0 4 of 13 30% 35 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:30
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kamuela Kirk 20 of 49 40% 14 of 40 4 of 7 2 of 2 15 of 42 0 of 0 5 of 7
Makwan Amirkhani 28 of 63 44% 8 of 34 9 of 15 11 of 14 27 of 62 0 of 0 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kamuela Kirk 6 of 16 37% 3 of 12 3 of 4 0 of 0 6 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
Makwan Amirkhani 11 of 23 47% 3 of 15 3 of 3 5 of 5 11 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Kamuela Kirk 6 of 20 30% 5 of 17 1 of 3 0 of 0 4 of 16 0 of 0 2 of 4
Makwan Amirkhani 13 of 27 48% 2 of 10 6 of 9 5 of 8 13 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Kamuela Kirk 8 of 13 61% 6 of 11 0 of 0 2 of 2 5 of 10 0 of 0 3 of 3
Makwan Amirkhani 4 of 13 30% 3 of 9 0 of 3 1 of 1 3 of 12 0 of 0 1 of 1
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Makwan Amirkhani

Big Brady thinks the line is too wide but favors Amirkhani as the better fighter in every area, especially grappling. He notes Kirk is on short notice and gassed in his last fight after a good first round. He believes Amirkhani will get takedowns and win a decision, though he doesn't expect a submission. He considers the skill sets similar but Amirkhani more skilled by a decent margin.

"some mac one by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jun 2, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Kamuela Kirk

Cody picks Kirk, agreeing with Paul. He notes Amirkhani's striking deficiencies and that Kirk is a better striker. Cody thinks Kirk's grappling is good enough to avoid submissions. He sees value in the dog and suggests live betting after the first round.

"if this is a 50 50 fight i want the dog"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 3, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Kamuela Kirk

Daniel picks Kirk as a plus-220 underdog, believing Kirk can stuff takedowns and win the boxing exchanges. He notes that Kirk trains at Fight Ready with Henry Cejudo and has improved since his Contender Series loss. Daniel acknowledges Amirkhani's experience and takedown game, but points out that Amirkhani has been dropped multiple times and has questionable cardio. He thinks Kirk's striking is better and if he can avoid gassing, he can win a decision or even get a finish. Daniel is going out on a limb but likes the dog.

"i'm going to go out on a limb i'm gonna take the plus 220 dog here i'm gonna go with kirk"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Kamuela Kirk

Kirk has a striking advantage and a BJJ black belt to defend submissions. Amirkhani fades after the first round and has poor striking. Kirk will survive the early grappling and win rounds two and three on the feet.

Kirk by decision +390, over 1.5 rounds -160
"I'll go kirk decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 2, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Kamuela Kirk

Paul picks Kirk as a dog, citing his striking advantage and takedown defense. He notes Amirkhani's low volume and reliance on early submissions. Paul thinks Kirk can survive the first round and then outpoint Amirkhani. He sees value at +205.

"i almost feel like uh there might be something worth it there on on kamuela kirk"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 30, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Makwan Amirkhani

The Guru picks Makwan Amirkhani, noting that Kirk is on short notice and lacks the cardio or early power to stop Amirkhani's takedowns. He references Amirkhani's success getting takedowns on Edson Barboza and Shane Burgos. He predicts Amirkhani will control the first two rounds and win a 29-28 decision, though Kirk might have a good third round.

unanimous decision, 29-28
"i feel like kwan amir khan is going to get this one you either need really bad really massive power in the first two rounds or really good cardio"
LOSS vs Edson Barboza
Decision (unanimous) (30–26, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. Sandhagen · Oct 11, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Edson Barboza 2 32 of 74 43% 34 of 77 0 of 0 --- 1 0 1:38
Makwan Amirkhani 0 11 of 39 28% 25 of 59 3 of 6 50% 0 0 3:13
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Edson Barboza 0 13 of 31 41% 15 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Makwan Amirkhani 0 4 of 13 30% 6 of 16 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:08
2 Edson Barboza 2 12 of 26 46% 12 of 26 0 of 0 --- 1 0 1:35
Makwan Amirkhani 0 3 of 15 20% 7 of 22 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:14
3 Edson Barboza 0 7 of 17 41% 7 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Makwan Amirkhani 0 4 of 11 36% 12 of 21 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:51
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Edson Barboza 32 of 74 43% 8 of 42 18 of 23 6 of 9 31 of 69 0 of 1 1 of 4
Makwan Amirkhani 11 of 39 28% 10 of 36 1 of 3 0 of 0 10 of 36 0 of 1 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Edson Barboza 13 of 31 41% 1 of 16 7 of 9 5 of 6 13 of 30 0 of 1 0 of 0
Makwan Amirkhani 4 of 13 30% 4 of 12 0 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Edson Barboza 12 of 26 46% 5 of 16 6 of 7 1 of 3 11 of 22 0 of 0 1 of 4
Makwan Amirkhani 3 of 15 20% 3 of 14 0 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 14 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Edson Barboza 7 of 17 41% 2 of 10 5 of 7 0 of 0 7 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
Makwan Amirkhani 4 of 11 36% 3 of 10 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 9 0 of 0 1 of 2
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 7, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Edson Barboza

Big Brady picks Barboza as part of a parlay with Tagir Ulanbekov. He believes Barboza has a great stylistic matchup, with 75% takedown defense against elite wrestlers, and that Amirkhani lacks the wrestling to keep him down. He expects Barboza to survive the early storm, stuff takedowns, and land a knockout as Amirkhani slows down. He notes Barboza is a BJJ black belt himself.

Barboza by third round knockout; parlay with Tagir Ulanbekov
"i really like that parley i just think it's a great stylistic matchup for barbosa here"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 9, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Edson Barboza

Daniel argues that Edson Barboza is not washed up like Tyron Woodley; he is still competitive with top-15 fighters and wins rounds. He believes Makwan Amirkhani is not on Barboza's level and that Amirkhani will struggle to get takedowns due to Barboza's improved takedown defense. Daniel also notes that Amirkhani has poor cardio and tends to fold when hit hard, while Barboza has the striking advantage and can finish the fight.

Daniel mentions that Barboza should win but it's a 'dogger pass' for betting due to the line. He also notes that Amirkhani's only path is a submission, but he doubts he can get Barboza down.
"I just think that there's levels to this [ __ ] and when barbosa wins this fight... I got edson barboza here man"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 8, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Edson Barboza

Barboza has a significant striking advantage and solid takedown defense. Amirkhani is a first-round threat but fades quickly; Barboza's body work and kicks will drain him. Expect a third-round TKO after Amirkhani's initial blitz fails.

Barboza wins in round 3 at +800
"i truly think that we see barboza put on a clinic on the feet"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2020 (7 days before fight)
Edson Barboza

The Guru picks Barboza, acknowledging Amirkhani's dangerous ground game but believing Barboza's takedown defense has improved over years of training. He notes Barboza survived Khabib's grappling and never got submitted. He expects Barboza to defend takedowns early, then take over with body kicks to drain Amirkhani's gas tank, finishing with a body kick TKO in the late second round.

body kick finish late second round
"i'm gonna go over to barboza getting the job done i'll say body kick finish late second round"
WIN vs Danny Henry
Technical Submission (anaconda choke) R1 3:15 · UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal · Jul 12, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Makwan Amirkhani 0 2 of 6 33% 2 of 6 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:47
Danny Henry 0 6 of 16 37% 6 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Makwan Amirkhani 0 2 of 6 33% 2 of 6 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:47
Danny Henry 0 6 of 16 37% 6 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Makwan Amirkhani 2 of 6 33% 1 of 5 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Danny Henry 6 of 16 37% 1 of 6 3 of 7 2 of 3 6 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Makwan Amirkhani 2 of 6 33% 1 of 5 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Danny Henry 6 of 16 37% 1 of 6 3 of 7 2 of 3 6 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Makwan Amirkhani

Big Brady picks Makwan Amirkhani by submission in the first round, citing his excellent wrestling and BJJ. He notes Amirkhani's gas tank is poor, so he needs an early finish, and he expects him to take Henry down and submit him early.

submission round 1
"i just see him getting down henry probably in that first round i think he's going to get him out of there in that first round ... i do think he's going to get a submission uh pretty early in …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Makwan Amirkhani

Daniel Levi picks Makwan Amirkhani, expecting him to grind out a win via takedowns and top control. He notes Amirkhani has landed a takedown in every UFC fight except his flying knee KO, and believes he can take down Danny Henry. He acknowledges Henry's length and comeback potential but favors Amirkhani's wrestling and submission threat.

"I'm gonna take mock when I'm your Connie to kind of grind this one out potentially get a submission along the way"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Makwan Amirkhani

Amirkhani has a massive grappling advantage and should be able to take Henry down and submit him. Henry is not as talented as Burgos, who finished Amirkhani, and Amirkhani's cardio issues shouldn't come into play if he gets the finish early. Picks Amirkhani by submission in the second round.

submission in second round
"I expect not want to go out there wrestle him and then pull off a submission with in the first round or two rounds"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert picked Jul 8, 2020 (4 days before fight)

The Guru does not discuss this fight in the transcript. No pick is made.

LOSS vs Shane Burgos
TKO (punches) R3 4:32 · UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz · Nov 02, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Shane Burgos 1 105 of 155 67% 161 of 217 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:31
Makwan Amirkhani 0 22 of 48 45% 23 of 49 3 of 19 15% 1 0 4:19
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Shane Burgos 0 6 of 17 35% 16 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:36
Makwan Amirkhani 0 8 of 14 57% 9 of 15 3 of 10 30% 1 0 2:45
2 Shane Burgos 0 27 of 44 61% 61 of 83 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:12
Makwan Amirkhani 0 5 of 16 31% 5 of 16 0 of 5 0% 0 0 1:16
3 Shane Burgos 1 72 of 94 76% 84 of 107 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:43
Makwan Amirkhani 0 9 of 18 50% 9 of 18 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:18
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Shane Burgos 105 of 155 67% 61 of 108 41 of 43 3 of 4 39 of 78 15 of 17 51 of 60
Makwan Amirkhani 22 of 48 45% 21 of 46 1 of 2 0 of 0 21 of 47 0 of 0 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Shane Burgos 6 of 17 35% 4 of 15 2 of 2 0 of 0 5 of 15 1 of 2 0 of 0
Makwan Amirkhani 8 of 14 57% 8 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0 7 of 13 0 of 0 1 of 1
2 Shane Burgos 27 of 44 61% 11 of 25 14 of 16 2 of 3 14 of 28 1 of 1 12 of 15
Makwan Amirkhani 5 of 16 31% 5 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0 5 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Shane Burgos 72 of 94 76% 46 of 68 25 of 25 1 of 1 20 of 35 13 of 14 39 of 45
Makwan Amirkhani 9 of 18 50% 8 of 16 1 of 2 0 of 0 9 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
Expert Picks (6)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 26, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Big Brady picks Lerone Murphy to win by decision. He explains that Amirkhani is dangerous early with submissions but has poor cardio and gasses after the first round. Murphy is well-rounded with good striking and solid ground game. If Murphy survives the first round, he will take over and win a decision, likely dropping the first round. He suggests live betting Murphy if he survives early.

Murphy by decision; live betting Murphy after first round
"I'm going to pick him to win by decision i think maquon's very tough but i think he's i think he's a gasser."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 27, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Cody agrees Murphy wins but suggests betting live because Amirkhani usually doesn't get blown out early. He notes Amirkhani has takedowns in his last 9 fights but fades as fight goes on. Murphy's cardio and ring IQ should take over in later rounds. He prefers to wait for a better price live.

"i think i can just improve it by waiting three to five minutes"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 28, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Daniel picks Lerone Murphy, citing his heart and improvement. He notes Amirkhani fades badly after the first round due to health issues. Daniel believes if Murphy survives the early takedowns, he will pick Amirkhani apart. He highlights Murphy's ability to scramble back to his feet. Daniel predicts a third-round knockout.

predicts third-round knockout and 50k bonus
"i think euron murphy's going to knock up machuan amerikani out probably third round"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 28, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Murphy will keep the fight standing and punish Amirkhani with leg kicks and power. Amirkhani needs takedowns but Murphy's takedown defense and striking should prevail. Murphy's power will be too much as the fight goes on, likely finishing in the third round.

Murphy by KO +150, Murphy in round 3 +850, under 2.5 rounds +100, fight doesn't go to decision -120.
"I think that lauren murphy survives the early onslaught on the ground uh keeps the fight vertical for the second and third round but eventually finds that finish in the third round."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 27, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Paul picks Murphy by decision at +165, noting Amirkhani's durability and wrestling. He thinks Murphy's striking and underrated wrestling will be too much, and Amirkhani will struggle to get takedowns. He expects Murphy to pick him apart on the feet and win a decision.

Murphy by decision +165 (DraftKings)
"laurel murphy by decision would probably be the way to attack this one"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 24, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

The MMA Guru picks Lerone Murphy to win by TKO. He criticizes Makwan Amirkhani's mindset and cardio, noting that Amirkhani gassed against a short-notice opponent. He highlights Murphy's takedown defense, physical strength, and composure. He predicts Murphy will stuff takedowns until Amirkhani gasses, then finish with ground and pound. He also mentions Murphy's good knees in the clinch and body shots.

ko by ground and pound
"lauren murphy gets this one down he's got a strong base he's a physical specimen very strong for the featherweight division"