Career Averages - Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos
Career Averages - Benoît Saint Denis
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos
Benoît Saint Denis
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neil Magny | 0 | 42 of 67 | 62% | 80 of 113 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:19 |
| Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | 0 | 20 of 42 | 47% | 42 of 69 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 4:40 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Neil Magny | 0 | 17 of 36 | 47% | 29 of 50 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:16 |
| Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | 0 | 18 of 36 | 50% | 24 of 42 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:03 | |
| 2 | Neil Magny | 0 | 25 of 31 | 80% | 51 of 63 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:03 |
| Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | 0 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 18 of 27 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:37 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neil Magny | 42 of 67 | 62% | 38 of 61 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 2 | 19 of 43 | 3 of 3 | 20 of 21 |
| Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | 20 of 42 | 47% | 5 of 24 | 4 of 5 | 11 of 13 | 17 of 38 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Neil Magny | 17 of 36 | 47% | 13 of 30 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 2 | 16 of 35 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | 18 of 36 | 50% | 5 of 20 | 4 of 5 | 9 of 11 | 15 of 32 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Neil Magny | 25 of 31 | 80% | 25 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 20 of 21 |
| Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Connor picks Zaleski, noting that Magny has looked increasingly hurtable and gun-shy, while Zaleski still has power and violence in his game. He acknowledges both fighters may be declining, but Zaleski's underlying physicality and scrambling ability give him the edge. Connor doubts Magny can replicate his past comeback wins.
Zane also picks Zaleski, pointing out that Magny's recent performances show a decline in output and durability. He notes that Zaleski has historically struggled against rangy strikers, but Magny's current form may not pose that threat. Zane believes Zaleski's wrestling and scrambling will be too much for Magny to handle.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chidi Njokuani | 1 | 46 of 87 | 52% | 46 of 88 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | 0 | 17 of 49 | 34% | 19 of 54 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 1:14 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chidi Njokuani | 0 | 23 of 45 | 51% | 23 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | 0 | 9 of 25 | 36% | 11 of 30 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 1:14 | |
| 2 | Chidi Njokuani | 1 | 23 of 42 | 54% | 23 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
| Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | 0 | 8 of 24 | 33% | 8 of 24 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chidi Njokuani | 46 of 87 | 52% | 17 of 38 | 16 of 32 | 13 of 17 | 36 of 71 | 2 of 3 | 8 of 13 |
| Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | 17 of 49 | 34% | 5 of 28 | 2 of 5 | 10 of 16 | 13 of 44 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chidi Njokuani | 23 of 45 | 51% | 3 of 12 | 13 of 23 | 7 of 10 | 22 of 44 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | 9 of 25 | 36% | 3 of 13 | 0 of 2 | 6 of 10 | 5 of 20 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Chidi Njokuani | 23 of 42 | 54% | 14 of 26 | 3 of 9 | 6 of 7 | 14 of 27 | 1 of 2 | 8 of 13 |
| Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | 8 of 24 | 33% | 2 of 15 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 6 | 8 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos over Chidi Njokuani. He acknowledges Njokuani is a better striker and younger, but he's concerned about Njokuani's volume being a one-off. Angelo trusts Zaleski's durability and wrestling, noting he almost finished Rakhmonov late. He suggests a prop bet on Njokuani winning inside distance with decision no action as a possible alternative.
Big Brady picks Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos, noting that despite being 38, he still has good performances left. He highlights Zaleski's durability, cardio, and grappling advantage, and points out that Chidi Njokuani has a history of quitting when faced with adversity, especially when taken down. Brady believes if Zaleski gets on top or hurts Njokuani, the fight will end quickly. He predicts a second-round finish, either by KO or submission.
Cody picks Erceg despite the high price, citing his level of competition and size advantage. He acknowledges Ode Osborne's reach and speed could cause early problems, but expects Erceg to take over as Osborne fades due to short notice. He is wary of the minus 600 line but still sees Erceg winning.
Connor agrees with Zane, emphasizing that Njokuani's desire to brawl in the pocket is exactly what Zaleski wants. He notes that Zaleski has a good chin and can outlast brawlers, and that Njokuani's range fighting is not his natural game. He also mentions that Zaleski can take the fight to the ground if needed.
Daniel does not make a clear pick for this fight. He discusses the matchup briefly but does not state a preference or bet.
The host believes Njokuani can replicate what Randy Brown did against Zaleski, using a distance striking approach and mixing in clinch Muay Thai. He expects Njokuani to land more damage and win at least two of three rounds on the scorecards.
Paul also picks Erceg, noting his superior technique and experience against top competition. He mentions Ode Osborne's power and submission threat but believes Erceg will outclass him. He considers an Ode Osborne KO prop but prefers Erceg on the moneyline.
The MMA Guru picks Chidi Njokuani, citing his physical presence, 7-inch reach advantage, and nasty clinch effectiveness. He thinks Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos, a rangy kicker, will struggle with Njokuani's size and pressure. He notes Zaleski dos Santos often wins close decisions and is 38, while Njokuani is a slight underdog with good value. He predicts a 2-1 decision or a Njokuani finish.
Zane picks Zaleski because Njokuani is a phone booth fighter who wants to brawl in the clinch, which plays into Zaleski's strengths. He notes that Zaleski is durable, can out-grapple Njokuani, and has a path to victory if he mixes in takedowns. He also points out that Njokuani has poor takedown defense and is too content to play guard.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | 0 | 11 of 35 | 31% | 11 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:20 |
| Zachary Scroggin | 0 | 3 of 8 | 37% | 3 of 8 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | 0 | 11 of 35 | 31% | 11 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:20 |
| Zachary Scroggin | 0 | 3 of 8 | 37% | 3 of 8 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | 11 of 35 | 31% | 7 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 29 |
| Zachary Scroggin | 3 of 8 | 37% | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | 11 of 35 | 31% | 7 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 29 |
| Zachary Scroggin | 3 of 8 | 37% | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Zaleski but with low confidence. He thinks Zaleski has heavier hands and can get takedowns, but worries about his cardio. He expects Zaleski needs to win the first two rounds because he will likely lose the third. He might consider a plus 3.5 round bet on Scroggin if the odds are favorable. He understands people picking Scroggin due to his cardio and durability.
Big Brady sees this as a mismatch, with Zaleski being far more experienced and skilled. He notes Scroggin's low level of competition, poor takedown defense, and hittability. He believes Zaleski will win easily, likely by first-round knockout.
Cody is very confident in Zaleski, calling Scroggin a 'dead man walking.' He points out Scroggin's lack of power, poor wrestling, and weak competition. Cody notes Zaleski's experience, power, and ability to take down Randy Brown, and expects a dominant finish or clear decision.
Connor picks Zaleski as a lock, calling it a 'pick him fight'. He notes Zaleski's ability to outbrawl opponents and that Scroggin is a severely undercooked submission grappler with dreadful striking. Connor mentions Zaleski hasn't knocked anyone out in six years but wouldn't be surprised if he does here. He also comments on the odds being wide.
Daniel Vreeland picks Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos, believing his experience and level of competition will be too much for UFC newcomer Zach Scroggin. He notes Scroggin's padded record and lack of tested skills, while Zaleski has fought top competition and has knockout power. Vreeland expects a rude welcome for Scroggin.
Scroggin is taking a huge step up in competition and despite his grappling, Zaleski should shut that down and use his striking advantage to find a finish in round two.
Paul agrees, noting Scroggin's short-notice debut and unimpressive regional competition. He highlights Zaleski's power and veteran savvy, and expects him to overwhelm Scroggin on the feet. Paul thinks the -500 line is fair but warns of banana peel pricing.
The Guru picks Nicholas Dalby, citing his high output and cardio. He notes that Zaleski dos Santos is 37 and hasn't had a KO since 2018. He expects Dalby to push a pace and break Zaleski over the fight, though he acknowledges Zaleski could win by TKO.
Zane picks Zaleski as a lock, describing Scroggin as a regional-level fighter with a submission grappling style and empty striking. He notes Zaleski is a really good opponent and that Scroggin has never faced a good opponent. Zane says Zaleski can go to war with anyone and it's up to him how he wins.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randy Brown | 0 | 67 of 141 | 47% | 89 of 166 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 1 | 0:42 |
| Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | 0 | 26 of 76 | 34% | 42 of 94 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 1 | 0 | 5:33 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Randy Brown | 0 | 34 of 71 | 47% | 35 of 72 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | 0 | 9 of 34 | 26% | 9 of 34 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:07 | |
| 2 | Randy Brown | 0 | 8 of 18 | 44% | 15 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 1 | 0:32 |
| Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | 0 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 19 of 25 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 1 | 0 | 3:52 | |
| 3 | Randy Brown | 0 | 25 of 52 | 48% | 39 of 69 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | 0 | 14 of 35 | 40% | 14 of 35 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:34 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randy Brown | 67 of 141 | 47% | 50 of 120 | 5 of 8 | 12 of 13 | 61 of 133 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 6 |
| Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | 26 of 76 | 34% | 8 of 50 | 3 of 9 | 15 of 17 | 24 of 73 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Randy Brown | 34 of 71 | 47% | 24 of 60 | 2 of 3 | 8 of 8 | 33 of 70 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | 9 of 34 | 26% | 2 of 22 | 3 of 6 | 4 of 6 | 9 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Randy Brown | 8 of 18 | 44% | 7 of 16 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 6 |
| Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | 3 of 7 | 42% | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Randy Brown | 25 of 52 | 48% | 19 of 44 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 5 | 24 of 51 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | 14 of 35 | 40% | 4 of 22 | 0 of 3 | 10 of 10 | 13 of 33 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Randy Brown but with reduced confidence after studying Elizeu Zaleski. He believes Brown's length and range striking will keep him safe, and that Zaleski is chinny and can be dropped. However, he acknowledges Zaleski's toughness and ability to rally, so he leaves Brown out of the safety parlay.
Big Brady is fading Randy Brown, expecting the fight to go to decision. He thinks Brown won't shoot takedowns or get an early finish, and doesn't expect crazy volume. He notes if there is a finish, it likely comes from Zaleski dos Santos. He is comfortable staying away from Brown.
Cody picks Brown but is hesitant, acknowledging Zaleski's danger. He likes Brown's length, jab, and game plan but notes Brown has slowed down and his defensive grappling is suspect. Cody worries that Zaleski's power and forward pressure could sway judges. He plans to keep Brown low on parlays and might switch to Zaleski after weigh-ins.
Daniel Vreeland agrees with Jeff, emphasizing that Zaleski dos Santos relies on distance striking and leg kicks, but Brown's reach and takedown ability neutralize that. He sees Brown piecing him up from distance and potentially taking him down. Vreeland notes Brown is crafty everywhere and can adapt to any scenario.
Daniel likes Brown's recent confidence and footwork, and thinks Zaleski's chin is declining. He expects Brown to find openings with his jab and straight right, possibly getting a first-round KO. He laid -160 for two units.
Jeff Fox picks Randy Brown, citing his size advantage (4 inches height, 5 inches reach) and well-rounded skills. He notes Brown is sneaky good, has no real weaknesses, and can win on the feet or with takedowns. Fox believes Zaleski dos Santos will struggle to deal with Brown's reach and pressure, and that Brown can mix in wrestling to keep things interesting.
The host expects Brown to use his size, reach, and footwork to keep Zaleski at range and win a decision. Zaleski's inactivity and age are concerns, and his unorthodox style may not overcome Brown's disciplined jab and movement. Brown's recent improvements in range management should allow him to cruise to a decision victory.
Paul leans toward Zaleski as a dog, citing his forward pressure, damaging blows, and ability to land bigger shots. He notes Brown's style is conservative and may not impress judges, while Zaleski's aggression and power could sway them. Paul mentions Zaleski's age (37) but says he still throws heat and has good cardio. He sees this as a 50/50 fight and likes the plus money.
The MMA Guru picks Randy Brown, believing his height and reach will trouble Zaleski dos Santos. He notes that Zaleski struggles against taller opponents and is older (37) with potential decline. Brown has good boxing at range and recent TKO wins. He predicts Brown by TKO.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rinat Fakhretdinov | 1 | 87 of 186 | 46% | 109 of 216 | 1 of 9 | 11% | 0 | 1 | 4:25 |
| Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | 0 | 75 of 152 | 49% | 115 of 211 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 1:24 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rinat Fakhretdinov | 1 | 37 of 61 | 60% | 47 of 75 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:43 |
| Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | 0 | 10 of 34 | 29% | 14 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Rinat Fakhretdinov | 0 | 27 of 73 | 36% | 32 of 78 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 1:13 |
| Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | 0 | 22 of 50 | 44% | 25 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Rinat Fakhretdinov | 0 | 23 of 52 | 44% | 30 of 63 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 0:29 |
| Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | 0 | 43 of 68 | 63% | 76 of 119 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 1:24 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rinat Fakhretdinov | 87 of 186 | 46% | 50 of 144 | 11 of 16 | 26 of 26 | 65 of 156 | 7 of 8 | 15 of 22 |
| Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | 75 of 152 | 49% | 47 of 113 | 17 of 26 | 11 of 13 | 57 of 129 | 2 of 3 | 16 of 20 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rinat Fakhretdinov | 37 of 61 | 60% | 17 of 40 | 5 of 6 | 15 of 15 | 21 of 39 | 1 of 1 | 15 of 21 |
| Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | 10 of 34 | 29% | 5 of 25 | 2 of 5 | 3 of 4 | 10 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Rinat Fakhretdinov | 27 of 73 | 36% | 15 of 57 | 3 of 7 | 9 of 9 | 24 of 70 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | 22 of 50 | 44% | 12 of 38 | 6 of 8 | 4 of 4 | 19 of 46 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 3 | |
| 3 | Rinat Fakhretdinov | 23 of 52 | 44% | 18 of 47 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 20 of 47 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 1 |
| Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | 43 of 68 | 63% | 30 of 50 | 9 of 13 | 4 of 5 | 28 of 49 | 2 of 2 | 13 of 17 |
Angelo is very high on Fakhretdinov, calling him the pick done right. He highlights Fakhretdinov's non-stop wrestling, power, and pressure. He thinks the 36-year-old Zaleski won't have what it takes. Angelo has made money on Fakhretdinov in every UFC fight and likes him even more now. He considers Fakhretdinov safe to parlay.
Big Brady picks Rinat Fakhretdinov to win by decision. He notes Fakhretdinov's dominant wrestling, controlling Brian Battle for 14 minutes and taking down Andreas Michailidis five times. He believes Fakhretdinov can take down Zaleski and grind out a decision, though he's not sure about a finish. He acknowledges Zaleski's toughness and BJJ but favors Fakhretdinov's wrestling and cardio.
Daniel Levi picks Rinat Fakhretdinov, impressed by his incredible stats: absorbs less than one strike per minute, 67% striking accuracy, over 5 takedowns per 15 minutes, and 100% takedown defense. He sees Fakhretdinov as a dominant wrestler who can control and finish fights. Levi respects Zaleski's toughness and highlight-reel kicks, but believes at 36 years old and coming off a suspension, Zaleski is in a tough spot. He expects Fakhretdinov to pressure, take him down, and possibly finish him.
James bet on Zaleski at +290, believing the line is too wide. He argues that Zaleski has much better takedown defense than Fakhretdinov's previous opponents and that if the fight stays on the feet, Zaleski is the more educated striker with nasty setups. He worries that Zaleski may be washed and can get hurt early, as seen in the Abubakar fight, but he also has Russian intel suggesting Fakhretdinov may be dealing with an injury and might strike more than grapple. James sees value in Zaleski as an underdog.
Fakhretdinov is a strong grappler with high-level cardio who chains takedowns together well. Zaleski may fend off takedowns early, but as the fight goes on, Fakhretdinov's pressure will be too much. He will accumulate top control time and win by decision. The line is a bit wide but Fakhretdinov should implement his style without too much resistance.
The MMA Guru picks Rinat Fakhretdinov over Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos. He acknowledges Zaleski's underrated resume but notes his age and recent performances. The Guru highlights Fakhretdinov's dominant win over Brian Battle and his improving hands, combining grappling and striking. He believes Fakhretdinov's athleticism and pressure will be too much for the older Zaleski, predicting a decision or late finish.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | 0 | 29 of 54 | 53% | 48 of 76 | 1 of 8 | 12% | 0 | 0 | 6:16 |
| Abubakar Nurmagomedov | 0 | 42 of 113 | 37% | 50 of 132 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | 0 | 12 of 16 | 75% | 15 of 20 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:39 |
| Abubakar Nurmagomedov | 0 | 10 of 34 | 29% | 10 of 37 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | 0 | 5 of 16 | 31% | 20 of 33 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:20 |
| Abubakar Nurmagomedov | 0 | 14 of 32 | 43% | 19 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 | |
| 3 | Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | 0 | 12 of 22 | 54% | 13 of 23 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:17 |
| Abubakar Nurmagomedov | 0 | 18 of 47 | 38% | 21 of 53 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | 29 of 54 | 53% | 13 of 37 | 6 of 7 | 10 of 10 | 23 of 48 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Abubakar Nurmagomedov | 42 of 113 | 37% | 16 of 75 | 13 of 22 | 13 of 16 | 27 of 87 | 15 of 26 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | 12 of 16 | 75% | 5 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 5 | 6 of 10 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Abubakar Nurmagomedov | 10 of 34 | 29% | 3 of 21 | 5 of 10 | 2 of 3 | 5 of 22 | 5 of 12 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | 5 of 16 | 31% | 2 of 13 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Abubakar Nurmagomedov | 14 of 32 | 43% | 3 of 17 | 4 of 6 | 7 of 9 | 10 of 26 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | 12 of 22 | 54% | 6 of 15 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 4 | 12 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Abubakar Nurmagomedov | 18 of 47 | 38% | 10 of 37 | 4 of 6 | 4 of 4 | 12 of 39 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Nurmagomedov, citing the long layoff for Zaleski (1.5 years) and Nurmagomedov's wrestling pressure. He thinks Zaleski tends to lose to wrestlers and has been taken down by non-wrestlers. Angelo bet Nurmagomedov at +120 for a quarter unit. He acknowledges the line is tightening but still favors the active fighter.
Cody picks Nurmagomedov, citing Zaleski's poor takedown defense (67%) and history of being taken down by wrestlers. He notes Zaleski has never faced a wrestler like Nurmagomedov, and that his long layoff and past drug test issues are red flags. Cody thinks Nurmagomedov's wrestling will be enough to grind out a win, even if he's not a high-volume takedown artist.
Connor picks Zaleski despite acknowledging Abubakar's wrestling advantage, because he believes Abubakar's poor athleticism and tendency to gas will lead to a fade. He notes that Zaleski is a physical freak who doesn't fall apart easily, and that Abubakar's wrestling often leads to his own cardio issues. Connor expects Zaleski to rally after an initial tough round, possibly winning by KO as Abubakar tires.
Daniel picks Abubakar, citing Zaleski's age (36) and recent PED suspension as reasons he may not look the same. He believes Abubakar is catching him at the perfect time and can outwork him with a grinding decision. He notes that Zaleski has historically been a violence king, but the suspension and age are major concerns.
Jacob picks Zaleski, believing his leg kicks and striking will neutralize Nurmagomedov's takedowns. He thinks Zaleski's performance against Saint Denis showed improved takedown defense. Jacob notes Nurmagomedov is flat-footed and not overly dominant in wrestling. He expects Zaleski to light up the lead leg and win by finish or decision.
Nurmagomedov has shown improved striking and a reliable grappling game. Zaleski is dangerous but coming off a long layoff and suspension. Nurmagomedov will land takedowns, control from top, and grind out a decision. Zaleski could pull off a submission or knockout, but the Dagestani wrestler is the safer pick.
Paul picks Zaleski dos Santos as a slight underdog. He notes the line movement to Nurmagomedov as favorite is undeserved, and that Zaleski is the more dangerous striker with freakish power. Paul mentions Zaleski's takedown defense is a concern, but he thinks if the fight stays standing, Zaleski has a significant advantage. He also notes Zaleski's long layoff and past drug test issues but still sides with him.
The MMA Guru picks Abubakar Nurmagomedov, comparing the matchup to a knockoff Khabib vs Edson Barboza. He notes that Zaleski dos Santos throws a lot of kicks on the back foot and lacks pace, and hasn't fought since October 2021 (over a year and a half off). He believes Nurmagomedov's grappling, pressure, and pace will be the difference, though he acknowledges Nurmagomedov has had iffy performances. He thinks the grappling of Nurmagomedov gets the win.
Zane picks Abubakar Nurmagomedov based on his strong positional grappling and wrestling advantage. He notes that Zaleski has poor takedown defense, having been taken down six times by Nicolas Dalby, and that few opponents have tested his wrestling since. Zane believes Abubakar's takedowns and top control will be decisive, though he acknowledges Abubakar's cardio issues could be a factor if he fails to finish early.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | 0 | 149 of 259 | 57% | 167 of 279 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:00 |
| Benoît Saint Denis | 0 | 67 of 148 | 45% | 80 of 162 | 2 of 14 | 14% | 0 | 0 | 1:55 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | 0 | 30 of 53 | 56% | 31 of 54 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:18 |
| Benoît Saint Denis | 0 | 19 of 45 | 42% | 21 of 47 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0:58 | |
| 2 | Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | 0 | 94 of 160 | 58% | 106 of 173 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:27 |
| Benoît Saint Denis | 0 | 28 of 67 | 41% | 37 of 76 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 0:25 | |
| 3 | Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | 0 | 25 of 46 | 54% | 30 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:15 |
| Benoît Saint Denis | 0 | 20 of 36 | 55% | 22 of 39 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:32 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | 149 of 259 | 57% | 96 of 200 | 37 of 42 | 16 of 17 | 112 of 207 | 32 of 47 | 5 of 5 |
| Benoît Saint Denis | 67 of 148 | 45% | 40 of 114 | 20 of 27 | 7 of 7 | 64 of 140 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | 30 of 53 | 56% | 11 of 34 | 9 of 9 | 10 of 10 | 29 of 50 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Benoît Saint Denis | 19 of 45 | 42% | 7 of 29 | 8 of 12 | 4 of 4 | 19 of 43 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | 94 of 160 | 58% | 76 of 139 | 17 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 63 of 116 | 29 of 42 | 2 of 2 |
| Benoît Saint Denis | 28 of 67 | 41% | 22 of 59 | 5 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 25 of 62 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | 25 of 46 | 54% | 9 of 27 | 11 of 13 | 5 of 6 | 20 of 41 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 |
| Benoît Saint Denis | 20 of 36 | 55% | 11 of 26 | 7 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 20 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
Angelo picks the underdog Benoît Saint Denis, citing his wrestling style as a key advantage. He notes that Benoît's low-level takedowns and pressure on top can neutralize Zaleski's dangerous capoeira striking. However, he expresses concern about Benoît's inexperience at this level, as he is only 8-0 and this is a big step up. He mentions he would bet if the line moved to +170, but is hesitant at current odds.
Big Brady picks Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos to win by knockout in the second or third round. He views Saint Denis as too green, sloppy, and making too many mistakes. Zaleski is a well-rounded veteran with good striking and grappling. He expects Zaleski to teach Saint Denis a veteran lesson and get a finish. He is confident in the pick despite Saint Denis's finishing ability.
Cody agrees, noting Zaleski's experience and wins over Sean Strickland, Lyman Good, Max Griffin. He thinks Saint Denis will have early success with wrestling but will fatigue, and Zaleski will take over. He compares Saint Denis to a Contender Series fighter who gassed when faced with resistance.
Daniel picks Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos, citing his battle-tested experience and versatility. He notes Zaleski's wins over Sean Strickland and his submission game. Daniel believes there are levels to the game and Zaleski will catch Saint Denis on a sloppy shot, possibly by submission or flying knee. He respects Saint Denis's regional success but thinks the step up in competition is too much.
Jacob picks Zaleski, believing his striking and ability to get back to his feet in scrambles will be decisive. He acknowledges Benoît's wrestling but thinks Zaleski can hold his own on the ground and win the striking exchanges. He is not super confident and dislikes the -850 line, but if forced to pick, he goes with Zaleski.
Zaleski is the more experienced veteran with good takedown defense and striking. Saint Denis is a submission hunter who gives up positions; if he doesn't finish early, Zaleski will find a knockout on the feet. Zaleski should survive the early onslaught and finish in the second round.
Paul picks Zaleski, citing his experience (12 UFC fights) and striking advantage. He thinks Saint Denis is hittable and robotic. He notes Zaleski has BJJ black belt in case it goes to the ground. He expects Zaleski to use veteran craftiness to keep it standing and eventually finish or win a decision.
The MMA Guru picks Benoît Saint Denis as an underdog. He highlights Saint Denis's great grappling, youth (25 vs 35), and activity. He notes that Zaleski has slowed down in recent fights, throwing less volume to conserve energy. He expects Saint Denis to pressure and stick to Zaleski with sticky grappling, taking him down repeatedly. He predicts a third-round submission as Zaleski fades.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muslim Salikhov | 0 | 46 of 138 | 33% | 46 of 138 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:53 |
| Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | 0 | 40 of 88 | 45% | 40 of 88 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Muslim Salikhov | 0 | 20 of 50 | 40% | 20 of 50 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | 0 | 14 of 23 | 60% | 14 of 23 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Muslim Salikhov | 0 | 9 of 41 | 21% | 9 of 41 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:43 |
| Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | 0 | 13 of 27 | 48% | 13 of 27 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 | |
| 3 | Muslim Salikhov | 0 | 17 of 47 | 36% | 17 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | 0 | 13 of 38 | 34% | 13 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muslim Salikhov | 46 of 138 | 33% | 23 of 98 | 11 of 25 | 12 of 15 | 35 of 124 | 3 of 4 | 8 of 10 |
| Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | 40 of 88 | 45% | 23 of 64 | 8 of 14 | 9 of 10 | 38 of 86 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Muslim Salikhov | 20 of 50 | 40% | 11 of 36 | 4 of 9 | 5 of 5 | 10 of 37 | 2 of 3 | 8 of 10 |
| Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | 14 of 23 | 60% | 6 of 14 | 3 of 4 | 5 of 5 | 12 of 21 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Muslim Salikhov | 9 of 41 | 21% | 3 of 28 | 5 of 9 | 1 of 4 | 8 of 40 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | 13 of 27 | 48% | 8 of 20 | 2 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 13 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Muslim Salikhov | 17 of 47 | 36% | 9 of 34 | 2 of 7 | 6 of 6 | 17 of 47 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | 13 of 38 | 34% | 9 of 30 | 3 of 6 | 1 of 2 | 13 of 38 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
In what could be a terrific battle between two high-flying strikers, it’s Capoeira vs. Kung Fu as Zaleski dos Santos (22-6, 8-2 UFC) comes to blows with Salikhov (16-2, 0-0 UFC). Hanging on tight is referee Herb Dean, who will have a tall task ahead in this welterweight scrap. The two flashy strikers touch gloves, and both paw out left hands that fall short. Zaleski dos Santos kicks low, and fakes to kick high, drawing a reaction from his opponent. The Dagestani fighter counters with a looping right, and Zaleski dos Santos evades it in time. Salikhov lands with a low kick, and Zaleski dos Santos connects to the body, which marks up Salikhov’s torso immediately. He slaps another body kick, so Salikhov counters with a right and follows it with a leg kick. Salikhov throws a low kick, avoids the counter and catches Zaleski dos Santos at the end of a left hand. Zaleski dos Santos charges forward with a salvo of punches, and lands a few in the process. Salikhov spins with a kick, and Zaleski dos Santos blocks it without much effort. When Zaleski dos Santos kicks to the lead leg, Salikhov times an overhand right that zings across the hair of his foe. Salikhov digs to the body with a spinning back kick, and this time Zaleski dos Santos is not quick enough to defend it. He comes back with a spinning wheel kick, and Salikhov blocks it, so Zaleski dos Santos charges forward with a few punches. Salikhov blocks them and fires another quick spinning back kick to the midsection. A powerful left hand from Salikhov stings Zaleski dos Santos, pausing the Brazilian for a moment. Zaleski dos Santos shoots in low for a takedown, and the Dagestani fighter stuffs it but gets tied up in a clinch. Zaleski dos Santos lifts a few knees up to the body, until Salikhov pushes himself free. Zaleski dos Santos wings up with a massive right hand, hurting Salikhov, so “Capoeira” chases after him with a few more. Salikhov shoots for a desperation takedown, and he lands it, but Zaleski dos Santos reverses the position and ends the round wailing on him with punches.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Zaleski dos Santos
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Zaleski dos Santos
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Zaleski dos Santos
Round 2
Zaleski dos Santos opens up the round with a low kick, and a one-two finds its home as “King of Kung Fu” looks to back off and get in his own rhythm. Zaleski dos Santos stings him with a right, and Salikhov fires back with a powerful left that makes Zaleski dos Santos take a step back. Salikhov kicks low, and takes a few jabs and backpedals to avoid a blitz from the Brazilian. Salikhov kicks to the body, so Zaleski dos Santos spins with a wheel kick. Salikhov catches the kick in midair, and throws Zaleski dos Santos down to the ground like a sack of flour. When Zaleski dos Santos gets back up, the two laugh it off, until Zaleski dos Santos winds up with a massive right hand that rings his opponent’s bell. As he plows forward with offense, Zaleski dos Santos ties him up and tries to wrench the fight down with a body lock takedown. Salikhov staves it off, so Zaleski dos Santos delivers a couple knees up the middle. Salikhov pushes away, and the two take the center of the cage again. Zaleski dos Santos flicks out a few jabs, and follows one with a windmilling right hand that Salikhov sees coming from a mile away. Salikhov throws another spinning kick, and Zaleski dos Santos returns fire with an identical kick. Zaleski dos Santos chains that kick with a high kick, and Salikhov blocks it and fires a speedy wheel kick that just misses Zaleski dos Santos’s head. The Brazilian pops out a jab, and a one-two is delivered part and parcel. The two trade single strikes until we hear the horn.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Zaleski dos Santos
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Zaleski dos Santos
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Zaleski dos Santos
Round 3
The two men touch gloves to start the last round, and Zaleski dos Santos introduces his foot to the side of Salikhov’s midsection. A few jabs from the Brazilian keep Salikhov back, until the Dagestani fighter rings home a right hand. Zaleski dos Santos digs to the body with a front kick, and keeps his momentum by spinning into a capoeira kick. Salikhov evades it and responds with an overhand left that gets Zaleski dos Santos’ attention. After a tepid moment where the two lazily throw out jabs, Salikhov misses with a leaping left hand. The two jab each other in the face at the same time, and Zaleski dos Santos works a low kick into a right hand that is inches short of full impact. Salikhov rushes in with a big punch, and Zaleski dos Santos catches him with a thudding counter, forcing Salikhov to take step backwards. “King of Kung Fu” is stalking down Zaleski dos Santos around the cage, with a leg kick and a few punches to try to make the Brazilian back away. A right hand from Salikhov connects, and when he sees a punch coming, he counters Zaleski dos Santos with a stiff right. Two punches swing by Salikhov’s head, so the Dagestani fighter comes back at him with a right. Salikhov jabs to the body as he avoids a foot to the face, but these two strikers are dwindling to single strikes. With no setup, Salikhov fires off a spinning back kick that glances off the side of Zaleski dos Santos’ head. Salikhov stalks him down but does not unload on him, and backs away while goading his opponent to come at him. “Capoeira” winds up with seconds to go with a spinning tornado kick, and Salikhov is well out of the way, applauding as the kick goes flying. Time expires, and this fight goes the distance.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Salikhov (29-28 Zaleski dos Santos)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Zaleski dos Santos (30-27 Zaleski dos Santos)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Salikhov (29-28 Zaleski dos Santos)
The Official Result
Muslim Salikhov def. Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos via Split Decision (30-27, 28-29, 29-28)
Big Brady picks Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos by decision, believing he will outwork Salikhov with higher output. He thinks Salikhov's only path is a knockout, but Zaleski has a good chin and can also win via takedowns or submission. He considers Zaleski underrated and the slight favorite should be him.
Daniel Levi picks Muslim Salikhov, emphasizing his speed, accuracy, and power on the feet. He believes Salikhov will knock out Zaleski if they stand, and notes improved takedown defense. He criticizes the narrative that Zaleski can out-volume Salikhov, saying Salikhov's shots are fight-changing. He also mentions the location (Abu Dhabi) may favor Salikhov in a decision.
Zaleski is a better grappler and jiu-jitsu player. He can use his capoeira striking to set up takedowns and exploit Salikhov's flaws on the ground. The line at +115 is good value, as the fight should be closer to a pick'em. Picks Zaleski by second-round submission.
The Guru picks Zaleski dos Santos by TKO, saying he thinks he gets it done by decision or TKO. He does not elaborate further.
Benoît Saint Denis - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benoît Saint Denis | 0 | 30 of 47 | 63% | 51 of 68 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 2 | 0 | 0:28 |
| Dan Hooker | 0 | 97 of 127 | 76% | 170 of 205 | 2 of 9 | 22% | 2 | 0 | 6:14 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Benoît Saint Denis | 0 | 26 of 41 | 63% | 34 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:22 |
| Dan Hooker | 0 | 35 of 46 | 76% | 62 of 73 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:55 | |
| 2 | Benoît Saint Denis | 0 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 17 of 19 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Dan Hooker | 0 | 62 of 81 | 76% | 108 of 132 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 2 | 0 | 4:19 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benoît Saint Denis | 30 of 47 | 63% | 19 of 32 | 8 of 12 | 3 of 3 | 28 of 44 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Dan Hooker | 97 of 127 | 76% | 83 of 113 | 14 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 20 of 32 | 10 of 11 | 67 of 84 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Benoît Saint Denis | 26 of 41 | 63% | 16 of 27 | 8 of 12 | 2 of 2 | 24 of 38 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Dan Hooker | 35 of 46 | 76% | 24 of 35 | 11 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 27 | 8 of 8 | 11 of 11 | |
| 2 | Benoît Saint Denis | 4 of 6 | 66% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Dan Hooker | 62 of 81 | 76% | 59 of 78 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 | 2 of 3 | 56 of 73 |
Angelo picks Benoît Saint Denis, citing his non-stop pressure, well-timed takedowns, and heavy top control. He notes that Dan Hooker's takedown defense is solid overall but fails against better wrestlers, and BSD is relentless. Angelo acknowledges Hooker's heart and striking but questions his motivation and game-planning. He expects a war and thinks BSD's style will overwhelm Hooker.
Big Brady is confident in Benoît Saint Denis, believing there's a big levels difference on the mat. He notes Dan Hooker has looked poor off his back against wrestlers like Islam Makhachev and Armen Serukian, and Saint Denis will take him down and submit him. He also thinks Saint Denis can knock Hooker out, as Arnold Allen and Michael Chandler have done. Brady predicts a second-round submission.
Cody is switching his pick to Dan Hooker as a value play, despite acknowledging the risks. He notes that Saint Denis is hittable and has shown defensive flaws, and that Hooker has faced elite competition and has the toughness to survive takedowns. He expects a close fight and thinks Hooker can win a decision or even get a finish if Saint Denis tires. However, he admits he doesn't love the pick and it will be near the bottom of his parlay.
Connor picks Hooker because he believes Saint Denis falls apart when put on the back foot and is not a clean finisher. He thinks Hooker can survive the early onslaught and rally back, as Saint Denis has never shown an ability to withstand a comeback. However, he acknowledges that Hooker is not as durable as Poirier and could get run over early, making it a 50/50 fight.
Daniel Vreeland is extremely confident in Saint Denis, predicting he will run through Hooker and finish him. He believes Hooker is past his prime and overranked, while Saint Denis is a violent finisher with relentless pressure and a strong ground game. Vreeland even bet on Saint Denis at minus 250 and made a bold prediction that Hooker will never win another UFC fight.
James picks BSD to win, acknowledging his bias as a New Zealander rooting for Hooker. He believes BSD's wrestling and grappling will be too much for Hooker at this stage, and that the fight won't go to decision. He notes Hooker is the better striker but BSD can land takedowns and submissions. James is hesitant because he wants Hooker to win but thinks BSD's path is more likely.
Saint Denis is a talented grappler with good finishing ability, likely to get a submission within the first two rounds. Hooker has decent defensive grappling but may struggle with Saint Denis's smothering style. The host prefers the 'fight doesn't go to decision' prop at -220 over the moneyline chalk. Hooker's striking and cardio could be factors if he survives early, but Saint Denis is expected to get the submission.
Paul hates the -350 price on Saint Denis and prefers the fight not to go the distance, as Saint Denis fights are almost always finishes. He leans toward Hooker if forced to pick a moneyline side, citing Saint Denis's tendency to get hit and Hooker's durability. He also mentions the time zone difference as a potential factor.
The Guru picks Benoît Saint Denis, agreeing with the odds. He highlights Saint Denis's grappling, power, and aggression, predicting he will submit Dan Hooker. He notes Hooker's recent damage and broken nose, and believes Saint Denis's pressure and body kicks will be too much.
Zane also picks Hooker, citing Saint Denis's inability to fight going backward and his lack of defense or footwork on the retreat. He notes that Hooker has the counters for a bullheaded wrestling game and that if Hooker survives the first round, he has a good chance to finish or win a decision. However, he admits that Hooker could easily get trounced early, as seen in fights against Chandler and Allen.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beneil Dariush | 0 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Benoît Saint Denis | 1 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Beneil Dariush | 0 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Benoît Saint Denis | 1 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beneil Dariush | 3 of 5 | 60% | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Benoît Saint Denis | 3 of 5 | 60% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Beneil Dariush | 3 of 5 | 60% | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Benoît Saint Denis | 3 of 5 | 60% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 |
Angelo picks Benoît Saint Denis, citing his relentless pressure and wrestling. He believes Beneil Dariush is aging and was sloppy in his last fight. Despite Dariush's scrambling skills, Angelo thinks BSD's grit and non-stop pace will overcome technique. He notes he would have picked Dariush a few years ago.
Big Brady picks Benoît Saint Denis, citing Beneil Dariush's compromised chin. He notes Dariush has been knocked out in three of his last four fights, including by Charles Oliveira and Arman Tsarukyan, and was dropped by Hakeem Dawodu. Brady believes Saint Denis can take a punch better at this stage and predicts a first-round knockout in a war. He acknowledges Dariush's elite anti-grappling and skills but says the chin is the deciding factor.
Cody picks Dariush despite the risk of a first-round knockout. He notes that Dariush has excellent grappling and cardio, and that Saint Denis tends to fade and take damage in longer fights. Cody believes that if Dariush survives the early onslaught, he can take over with his wrestling and pressure. He suggests a live bet if Dariush gets through the first round.
Connor picks Dariush confidently, citing his superior grappling and scrambling. He notes that Saint Denis relies on aggression and faith in his conditioning, but Dariush is a fluid control grappler who will stay ahead in scrambles. He warns that Dariush could lose if knocked out, but in any grappling exchange, Dariush wins.
Daniel thinks Dariush is the better overall fighter but his chin is suspect, and Saint Denis has the power and pressure to test it. He notes that Saint Denis is riding high on confidence after dismantling Ruffy, while Dariush looks a fight or two away from retirement. He leans toward Saint Denis finding a knockout, but acknowledges Dariush has paths to victory if he can avoid getting hit clean.
Lucrative James picks Benoît Saint Denis to win by knockout, despite acknowledging Dariush's superior scrambling and counter-grappling. He believes Dariush's durability is a major concern, as he has been knocked out multiple times and is getting older. He thinks BSD's relentless pressure and power will eventually catch Dariush on the feet, even if he struggles to secure takedowns. He predicts a KO victory for BSD, possibly via head kick or in a transition.
Dariush is the better fighter. Saint Denis struggles to get grappling going. Dariush scrambles out of bad positions, keeps Saint Denis on the defensive, and finds a finish in the second or third round.
Paul agrees with Cody, preferring to watch the first round before betting due to the knockout risk. He notes that Saint Denis has gassed in past fights and that Dariush's takedown defense is excellent. Paul thinks that if Dariush can avoid early trouble, he can outwork Saint Denis and potentially submit him. He is not fully confident but leans towards Dariush.
The Guru picks Benoît Saint Denis to win by TKO in round two. He believes Saint Denis' pressure, clinch work, and body shots will wear down Dariush, who may struggle with the pace. He notes that both are evenly matched on the ground, but Saint Denis has a higher KO percentage and momentum. The Guru expects Saint Denis to break Dariush against the cage.
Zane agrees with Connor, picking Dariush. He emphasizes that Saint Denis' aggressive, throw-himself-in style will not work against Dariush's relaxed, anticipatory grappling. He notes that Saint Denis lost to Moicano by being overwhelmed, and Dariush is a better grappler than Moicano.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benoît Saint Denis | 0 | 17 of 38 | 44% | 37 of 61 | 3 of 10 | 30% | 1 | 0 | 4:38 |
| Maurício Ruffy | 0 | 5 of 17 | 29% | 6 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:34 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Benoît Saint Denis | 0 | 6 of 18 | 33% | 19 of 32 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 3:04 |
| Maurício Ruffy | 0 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 1 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:16 | |
| 2 | Benoît Saint Denis | 0 | 11 of 20 | 55% | 18 of 29 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 1 | 0 | 1:34 |
| Maurício Ruffy | 0 | 4 of 11 | 36% | 5 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:18 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benoît Saint Denis | 17 of 38 | 44% | 9 of 26 | 8 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 26 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 9 |
| Maurício Ruffy | 5 of 17 | 29% | 4 of 14 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Benoît Saint Denis | 6 of 18 | 33% | 2 of 12 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 14 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 2 |
| Maurício Ruffy | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Benoît Saint Denis | 11 of 20 | 55% | 7 of 14 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 7 |
| Maurício Ruffy | 4 of 11 | 36% | 4 of 10 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Ruffy (-200); St. Denis (+170)
Round 1
Buckle up, buckaroos. The co-main event is here, and it should be a wild one. St. Denis (14-3, 1 NC; 6-3 UFC) and Ruffy (12-1, 3-0 UFC) are about to trade. Nothing more needs to be said, other than that referee Herb Dean is standing by. The lightweights touch gloves. Here we go.
St. Denis introduces himself with a body kick, and then slings one up high. St. Denis rushes at the Brazilian with a looping left hand, and Ruffy bounces off the fencing. St. Denis drops to his knees in pursuit of a double, and he wrangles Ruffy to the mat in about 40 seconds. St. Denis steps over to half guard, side control and then full mount less than one minute into the bout. The crowd is predictably going nuts before St. Denis even starts setting up a chest pressure-based arm-triangle choke. Ruffy turns over to give up his back as St. Denis starts raining down punches, and he tries to pursue a choke while Ruffy stands up. Ruffy spins his opponent around while in a body lock, and he explodes back to his feet. St. Denis times a head kick and goes after a takedown, so Ruffy responds with an intercepting knee. St. Denis tackles the Brazilian to the mat, and he assumes full mount but actually steps to the side so he can retain a controlling posture.
St. Denis gets in a body lock from behind as Ruffy scrambles to turn to his back, and this allows St. Denis to assume full mount again. St. Denis wraps up an arm-triangle choke, and he has it tight but the Fighting Nerds export is able to tough it out. St. Denis drills him with a few ground strikes, and Ruffy muscles his way to his feet. The two tie up against the fencing, jockeying for position and trading knees. St. Denis lands a knee to the groin, or so Ruffy claims to Dean repeatedly. Dean asks the replay official to check the foul, which indeed struck him below the belt. Ruffy gets time to recover as the audience showers him with boos and then songs. Ruffy states he is good to go less than a minute in, and they get back to it. Ruffy wings a big uppercut that misses the mark, and he is countered by a head kick, jab and takedown attempt. Ruffy rebounds off the fencing and takes a flush jab on the way out. St. Denis kicks high and slaps into the guard, and he goes after two kicks to the ribs. St. Denis launches one more head kick that is blocked as the round concludes.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 St. Denis
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 St. Denis
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 St. Denis
Round 2
The second round begins with St. Denis faking a takedown to open up with a head kick. St. Denis hurls a body kick and is jabbed back with a vengeance. Ruffy jumps in the air with a knee that staggers for a second, and St. Denis steels himself and forces himself into a takedown effort. St. Denis gets Ruffy down, but the Brazilian times a picture-perfect reversal to plant the local athlete on his back. St. Denis immediately opens up with an active guard, and Ruffy abandons ship and stands back up, where he misses a huge right hand. St. Denis walks him down and punches his way into a takedown shot, and a knee from St. Denis makes Ruffy cry foul once more. Dean is not hearing it this time, possibly because it is deafening in the arena. St. Denis wrangles his opponent to the ground, grappling him from behind and getting in his hooks.
With the body triangle in play, St. Denis starts clubbing Ruffy on both sides of the head. This softens the Brazilian up, so that St. Denis can fasten a rear-naked choke grip on the chin.
Ruffy is tucking in his chin to protect his neck, and St. Denis squeezes with everything he has. Ruffy is calm and composed, but the face crank is crushing his skull as the French fighter is empowered by the audience that is going positively bonkers at this point. St. Denis does not relent with his vice grip on the jaw, and Ruffy’s eyes go wide as he has tap out with the end of his fingers from the nasty submission.
At that moment, no one in the building can hear themselves think, as the legion of screaming masses explode in support of the man named “God of War.” Until today, Ruffy had never been submitted. He won’t be able to say that anymore, but he is nothing but gracious and professional as he congratulates St. Denis for beating him. That makes 11 finishes this evening, tying the UFC’s single-event record. What a night it has been, and we still have one more to go.
The Official Result
Benoit St. Denis def. Mauricio Ruffy R2 2:56 via Submission (Face Crank)
Angelo picks Maurício Ruffy confidently, criticizing the hype around Saint Denis. He points out Saint Denis' losses where he was dominated, and argues that Ruffy's dynamic striking and takedown defense will be too much. He believes Ruffy will 'style on' Saint Denis and land clean, big shots. He plans to parlay and bet on Ruffy but is waiting for the line to tighten further.
Big Brady picks Maurício Ruffy, believing he will dominate on the feet. He notes Saint Denis has poor striking defense (41%) and has been knocked out before. He thinks if Saint Denis cannot get takedowns, he is in trouble. He predicts a first-round knockout.
Connor picks Ruffy, believing he might knock Saint Denis out. He notes that Saint Denis has a Patrick Cummins-like ability to take clean shots and that his defensive flaws are severe. Connor thinks Ruffy's accuracy and power will find a home, and that Saint Denis's aggressive style plays into Ruffy's hands. He acknowledges that Ruffy's level of competition is questionable but sees the potential for a spectacular finish.
The host acknowledges Ruffy's flashy knockout style and fan support but believes he is not ready for Saint Denis's grapple-heavy, smothering approach. He expects Saint Denis to grapple Ruffy, take his back, and sink in a rear-naked choke for a submission victory.
The Guru picks Maurício Ruffy with high confidence, citing Ruffy's speed, shot selection, and ability to set traps. He criticizes Saint Denis' slow, chin-up striking and believes he is ripe for a knockout. He predicts a first-round KO, comparing it to McGregor vs Aldo, and dismisses concerns about Ruffy's grappling.
Zane picks Saint Denis because he knows what Saint Denis will do—aggressive pressure and physicality—and he doubts Ruffy is ready for that sustained onslaught. He notes that Ruffy's wins have come against inferior athletes and that his trick-striking style may not hold up against a relentless forward fighter. He acknowledges that Saint Denis is vulnerable defensively and may gas, but believes his pace will overwhelm Ruffy.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benoît Saint Denis | 0 | 54 of 70 | 77% | 77 of 103 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 2 | 0 | 5:32 |
| Kyle Prepolec | 0 | 12 of 27 | 44% | 14 of 29 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Benoît Saint Denis | 0 | 10 of 16 | 62% | 27 of 43 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 | 0 | 4:32 |
| Kyle Prepolec | 0 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Benoît Saint Denis | 0 | 44 of 54 | 81% | 50 of 60 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 1:00 |
| Kyle Prepolec | 0 | 12 of 26 | 46% | 14 of 28 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benoît Saint Denis | 54 of 70 | 77% | 36 of 51 | 11 of 12 | 7 of 7 | 24 of 33 | 22 of 24 | 8 of 13 |
| Kyle Prepolec | 12 of 27 | 44% | 11 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 24 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Benoît Saint Denis | 10 of 16 | 62% | 7 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 13 |
| Kyle Prepolec | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Benoît Saint Denis | 44 of 54 | 81% | 29 of 38 | 10 of 11 | 5 of 5 | 22 of 30 | 22 of 24 | 0 of 0 |
| Kyle Prepolec | 12 of 26 | 46% | 11 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 23 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady is extremely confident in Saint Denis, calling the fight a 'sanctioned murder'. He notes Prepolec is a low-level replacement on short notice, who previously went 0-2 in the UFC. He predicts Saint Denis will win easily, either by knockout or submission in the first round, and likely earn a $50k bonus.
Connor picks Benoît Saint Denis, agreeing that Prepolec is a regional-level fighter who cannot handle Saint Denis's pressure and wrestling. He notes that Prepolec's opponents have a combined record of 44-38 and that even a washed Shane Campbell out-hustled him. Connor sees this as a clear win for Saint Denis.
The host believes Saint Denis is too strong a grappler for Prepolec, who is on short notice. He expects Saint Denis to wear Prepolec down and secure a submission within the first round and a half.
The MMA Guru picks Saint Denis, calling it a career-saving matchup. He notes Prepolec's poor UFC history, inactivity, and injuries, while Saint Denis is a heavy favorite. He expects a first or second round finish, possibly a TKO, as Prepolec is a sacrificial lamb. He mentions the odds are crazy but agrees with the pick.
Zane picks Benoît Saint Denis, arguing that Prepolec is a much less potent version of Saint Denis and could not handle Austin Hubbard's wrestling. He notes that Saint Denis will swarm into Prepolec, grab his waist, and drag him into hell with top control. Zane believes this is a straightforward mismatch.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Renato Moicano | 0 | 50 of 72 | 69% | 72 of 98 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 4:53 |
| Benoît Saint Denis | 0 | 25 of 60 | 41% | 35 of 70 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Renato Moicano | 0 | 35 of 40 | 87% | 57 of 66 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:37 |
| Benoît Saint Denis | 0 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 12 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Renato Moicano | 0 | 15 of 32 | 46% | 15 of 32 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:16 |
| Benoît Saint Denis | 0 | 21 of 55 | 38% | 23 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Renato Moicano | 50 of 72 | 69% | 46 of 66 | 0 of 1 | 4 of 5 | 17 of 35 | 0 of 1 | 33 of 36 |
| Benoît Saint Denis | 25 of 60 | 41% | 13 of 44 | 10 of 14 | 2 of 2 | 25 of 60 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Renato Moicano | 35 of 40 | 87% | 34 of 38 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 33 of 36 |
| Benoît Saint Denis | 4 of 5 | 80% | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Renato Moicano | 15 of 32 | 46% | 12 of 28 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 15 of 31 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Benoît Saint Denis | 21 of 55 | 38% | 13 of 44 | 7 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 21 of 55 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Benoît Saint Denis, believing his all-gas-no-brakes pressure and grappling will be too much for Moicano. He notes that Moicano has a shaky chin and is not dangerous enough to stop Saint Denis's forward pressure. He references Saint Denis's dominant first round against Dustin Poirier, suggesting that same level of pressure will overwhelm Moicano. He dismisses the staph infection excuse as a potential factor but leans toward Saint Denis's performance being legitimate.
Big Brady picks Benoît Saint Denis by first-round knockout, describing him as a beast who pushes a crazy pace with power in his hands and body kicks. He notes Moicano's chin has always been an issue and Saint Denis will bring a car crash that Moicano won't survive. He expects an early finish.
Cody picks Benoît Saint Denis as his cash game play, citing his elite fantasy scoring in wins (109, 149, 115, 136, 105) and his aggression and wrestling ability. He notes that Saint Denis is a heavy favorite at minus 300 and has a minus 200 line to win inside the distance. Cody acknowledges that Moicano is a better technical fighter and could be a valuable tournament target, but Moicano's durability issues make Saint Denis the safer cash game pick.
Cody believes BSD is a legitimate future title challenger with relentless pressure, top-notch grappling, and physicality. He excuses BSD's loss to Dustin Poirier due to a staph infection and thinks a healthy BSD would have won. He sees Moicano's questionable chin and cardio as vulnerabilities, and expects BSD to overwhelm him with pace and aggression.
Connor picks Saint Denis because he believes Saint Denis's relentless pressure and physicality will overwhelm Moicano, who often gets hurt early and relies on wrestling to recover. He notes that Saint Denis is a strong scrambler and has never been held down, making Moicano's path to victory difficult. Connor acknowledges that Moicano could win if he survives the early onslaught, but he doubts Moicano can consistently find his grappling outlet against Saint Denis's pace.
Daniel Vreeland picks Benoît Saint Denis to win by TKO. He believes BSD's pressure, power, and body kicks will be too much for Moicano, who has poor striking defense and a questionable chin. He notes that Moicano is tough and has good grappling, but BSD's wrestling and ground-and-pound should secure the finish. He also mentions that the price is high at -270, but sees value in the KO prop at plus money.
JP picks Benoît Saint Denis because he thinks Saint Denis is a problem with power and toughness. He notes Saint Denis was beating Dustin Poirier before getting clipped, and he had a staph infection in that fight. He thinks Moicano gets hit too much and doesn't have the power to put Saint Denis away. He also mentions the fight is in France, which could favor the French fighter in a close decision.
Paul agrees with Cody, highlighting BSD's aggressive style, takedown ability, and durability. He notes that Moicano's path to victory via submission is unlikely against BSD's grappling. Paul also points out that Moicano's low output and cardio issues make him vulnerable in a five-round fight, especially in front of a French crowd.
The MMA Guru picks Renato Moicano over Benoît Saint Denis, emphasizing Moicano's underrated Jiu-Jitsu and significant experience advantage (9 years more as a pro). He notes Saint Denis' tendency to kick up and expose his back, which Moicano can exploit with body locks and back takes. He predicts a third-round submission via rear-naked choke after ground and pound.
Zane picks Saint Denis because he believes Saint Denis's constant pressure and pace will be too much for Moicano, who often gets hurt early and struggles to recover against relentless fighters. He notes that Moicano's best wins have come against grapplers who allow him to slow the fight down, but Saint Denis never stops coming. Zane also points out that Moicano's path to victory relies on surviving the early storm and then outworking Saint Denis, which he considers unlikely given Saint Denis's cardio and durability.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin Poirier | 1 | 28 of 34 | 82% | 30 of 37 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 4 | 0 | 0:31 |
| Benoît Saint Denis | 0 | 50 of 74 | 67% | 69 of 97 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 1 | 0 | 4:53 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dustin Poirier | 0 | 12 of 13 | 92% | 14 of 16 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 3 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Benoît Saint Denis | 0 | 38 of 49 | 77% | 53 of 68 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 3:20 | |
| 2 | Dustin Poirier | 1 | 16 of 21 | 76% | 16 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:08 |
| Benoît Saint Denis | 0 | 12 of 25 | 48% | 16 of 29 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:33 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin Poirier | 28 of 34 | 82% | 24 of 30 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 23 of 25 | 4 of 8 | 1 of 1 |
| Benoît Saint Denis | 50 of 74 | 67% | 25 of 46 | 18 of 20 | 7 of 8 | 17 of 37 | 31 of 35 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dustin Poirier | 12 of 13 | 92% | 11 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 10 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Benoît Saint Denis | 38 of 49 | 77% | 21 of 31 | 10 of 10 | 7 of 8 | 13 of 22 | 23 of 25 | 2 of 2 | |
| 2 | Dustin Poirier | 16 of 21 | 76% | 13 of 18 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 15 | 1 of 5 | 1 of 1 |
| Benoît Saint Denis | 12 of 25 | 48% | 4 of 15 | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 15 | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Benoît Saint Denis, citing his pressure, power, and wrestling. He worries that Dustin Poirier's chin may have deteriorated after the Justin Gaethje knockout. He thinks Saint Denis can overwhelm Poirier early. However, he won't bet because he's rooting for Poirier.
Big Brady picks Benoît Saint Denis to win by second-round submission. He notes that Saint Denis is younger, hungrier, and has grappling upside. He believes Saint Denis will get Poirier down and submit him, similar to how Michael Chandler did. He acknowledges Poirier's striking advantage but thinks Saint Denis's durability and pressure will be too much.
Cody points to Poirier's declining volume and durability, noting he has been outstruck in recent fights and is showing signs of wear. He contrasts that with Saint Denis's relentless pressure, cardio, durability, and progression. He believes Saint Denis will break Poirier's will as the fight goes on.
Daniel picks Poirier but is very hesitant due to Poirier's age and coming off a head kick KO loss. He acknowledges Poirier is the more skilled striker and believes he can knock out Saint Denis on the feet. However, he worries about Saint Denis's pressure, grappling, and durability, and whether Poirier still has the will and cardio to go five rounds. Daniel notes that if Poirier drops Saint Denis, he might follow him to the ground unlike against Charles Oliveira. He ultimately leans on Poirier's skill advantage.
Daniel Vreeland picks Benoît Saint Denis but expresses discomfort with the -205 price. He believes BSD's wrestling and pace will be too much for Poirier, especially given Poirier's recent knockout loss. Vreeland notes that BSD has finished all his opponents and has never been finished. However, he calls the line a 'dog or pass' spot because BSD has never fought anyone as tough as Poirier. He says he would rather see BSD fight someone like Rafael Fiziev before this step up. Despite the price, he picks BSD because he has never picked against him.
Jeff Fox picks Benoît Saint Denis as well, noting that he has never picked against BSD and won't start now. He acknowledges the massive step up in competition from Matt Frevola to Dustin Poirier, but believes BSD's wrestling and finishing ability are real. Fox points out that Poirier has been knocked out recently and that BSD has the power to put him away. He also mentions that BSD is younger and has a relentless pace. However, he says he won't bet real money on this fight due to the price and the step up.
Saint Denis is a relentless pressure fighter with five straight finishes. He uses leg kicks, body work, and clinch pressure to break opponents, then works to the back for rear-naked chokes. Poirier is a better striker but struggles against aggressive grapplers who can close the distance, as seen in losses to Khabib and Oliveira. Poirier does not want this fight and may be mentally checked out. I expect Saint Denis to break Poirier within the first two rounds and secure a submission.
Paul emphasizes Poirier's mileage and the fact that he didn't even know the fight was on until recently, suggesting he hasn't been sparring hard. He contrasts that with Saint Denis's hunger and youth, and notes that Saint Denis has never been finished and has shown incredible durability and pace.
The MMA Guru picks Benoît Saint Denis, believing he will overwhelm Dustin Poirier with body kicks, takedowns, and pressure. He notes Poirier's wide hips and square stance make him vulnerable to body kicks, and that Poirier struggled with Chandler's body kicks. He predicts Saint Denis will finish Poirier by ground-and-pound TKO in round two, leading to Poirier's retirement.
Expert Picks (8)
Angelo picks the underdog Benoît Saint Denis, citing his wrestling style as a key advantage. He notes that Benoît's low-level takedowns and pressure on top can neutralize Zaleski's dangerous capoeira striking. However, he expresses concern about Benoît's inexperience at this level, as he is only 8-0 and this is a big step up. He mentions he would bet if the line moved to +170, but is hesitant at current odds.
Big Brady picks Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos to win by knockout in the second or third round. He views Saint Denis as too green, sloppy, and making too many mistakes. Zaleski is a well-rounded veteran with good striking and grappling. He expects Zaleski to teach Saint Denis a veteran lesson and get a finish. He is confident in the pick despite Saint Denis's finishing ability.
Cody agrees, noting Zaleski's experience and wins over Sean Strickland, Lyman Good, Max Griffin. He thinks Saint Denis will have early success with wrestling but will fatigue, and Zaleski will take over. He compares Saint Denis to a Contender Series fighter who gassed when faced with resistance.
Daniel picks Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos, citing his battle-tested experience and versatility. He notes Zaleski's wins over Sean Strickland and his submission game. Daniel believes there are levels to the game and Zaleski will catch Saint Denis on a sloppy shot, possibly by submission or flying knee. He respects Saint Denis's regional success but thinks the step up in competition is too much.
Jacob picks Zaleski, believing his striking and ability to get back to his feet in scrambles will be decisive. He acknowledges Benoît's wrestling but thinks Zaleski can hold his own on the ground and win the striking exchanges. He is not super confident and dislikes the -850 line, but if forced to pick, he goes with Zaleski.
Zaleski is the more experienced veteran with good takedown defense and striking. Saint Denis is a submission hunter who gives up positions; if he doesn't finish early, Zaleski will find a knockout on the feet. Zaleski should survive the early onslaught and finish in the second round.
Paul picks Zaleski, citing his experience (12 UFC fights) and striking advantage. He thinks Saint Denis is hittable and robotic. He notes Zaleski has BJJ black belt in case it goes to the ground. He expects Zaleski to use veteran craftiness to keep it standing and eventually finish or win a decision.
The MMA Guru picks Benoît Saint Denis as an underdog. He highlights Saint Denis's great grappling, youth (25 vs 35), and activity. He notes that Zaleski has slowed down in recent fights, throwing less volume to conserve energy. He expects Saint Denis to pressure and stick to Zaleski with sticky grappling, taking him down repeatedly. He predicts a third-round submission as Zaleski fades.
Comments (1)
Santos gave him the beating of a lifetime.
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