vs
-470 +425
UFC 267: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira · Oct 30, 2021 · Lightweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC 267: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira Next Fight
Age 34
Height 5' 10"
Reach 70.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Age 36
Height 6' 0"
Reach 75.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Switch
Career Averages - Islam Makhachev
2.45 SLpM
58.0% Str. Acc.
1.45 SApM
61.0% Str. Def.
3.1 TD Avg
56.0% TD Acc.
91.0% TD Def.
1.0 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Dan Hooker
4.82 SLpM
48.0% Str. Acc.
4.94 SApM
49.0% Str. Def.
0.68 TD Avg
33.0% TD Acc.
77.0% TD Def.
0.6 Sub. Avg
Islam Makhachev
Moneyline
Caesars -470
KO/TKO
BetRivers +600
Submission
FanDuel +270
Decision
FanDuel +105
Dan Hooker
Moneyline
BetRivers +425
KO/TKO
DraftKings +1000
Submission
BetMGM +2800
Decision
BetMGM +1100
Islam Makhachev - Fight History
Decision R5 5:00 · UFC 322 · Nov 15, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jack Della Maddalena 0 18 of 61 29% 30 of 74 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Islam Makhachev 0 30 of 57 52% 140 of 188 4 of 4 100% 0 0 19:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jack Della Maddalena 0 4 of 18 22% 11 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Islam Makhachev 0 3 of 8 37% 20 of 36 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:52
2 Jack Della Maddalena 0 3 of 6 50% 6 of 9 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Islam Makhachev 0 9 of 17 52% 36 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 4:05
3 Jack Della Maddalena 0 9 of 20 45% 11 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Islam Makhachev 0 11 of 18 61% 32 of 44 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:06
4 Jack Della Maddalena 0 1 of 11 9% 1 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Islam Makhachev 0 7 of 12 58% 30 of 37 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:24
5 Jack Della Maddalena 0 1 of 6 16% 1 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Islam Makhachev 0 0 of 2 0% 22 of 25 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:43
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jack Della Maddalena 18 of 61 29% 10 of 45 6 of 12 2 of 4 14 of 56 4 of 5 0 of 0
Islam Makhachev 30 of 57 52% 14 of 40 6 of 7 10 of 10 20 of 41 3 of 4 7 of 12
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jack Della Maddalena 4 of 18 22% 3 of 14 1 of 2 0 of 2 4 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
Islam Makhachev 3 of 8 37% 0 of 5 0 of 0 3 of 3 3 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 1
2 Jack Della Maddalena 3 of 6 50% 2 of 5 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Islam Makhachev 9 of 17 52% 6 of 13 1 of 2 2 of 2 3 of 6 1 of 2 5 of 9
3 Jack Della Maddalena 9 of 20 45% 4 of 12 4 of 7 1 of 1 5 of 15 4 of 5 0 of 0
Islam Makhachev 11 of 18 61% 5 of 12 3 of 3 3 of 3 7 of 14 2 of 2 2 of 2
4 Jack Della Maddalena 1 of 11 9% 0 of 8 0 of 2 1 of 1 1 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Islam Makhachev 7 of 12 58% 3 of 8 2 of 2 2 of 2 7 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Jack Della Maddalena 1 of 6 16% 1 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Islam Makhachev 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
UFC Welterweight Title Fight: Jack Della Maddalena vs. Islam Makhachev
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Makhachev (-270), Della Maddalena (+220)

Round 1
Herb Dean is the referee. Makhachev opens with a low keg kcik. Maddalena immediately pressures behind a combination. Makhachev with a front kick down the middle but Maddalena has his guard up. Maddalena moves in with a combination. It’s a about a minute in when Makhachev shoots for his first takedown, and he gets it by tripping the Aussie to the mat. Makhachev in half guard, applying heavy top pressure. Makhachev looks for openings to land offense, and he lands short elbows and punches. Maddalena creates a scramble and gets to his feet, but Makhachev jumps on his back. The champ goes to his back, so Makhachev is in top position again, working from half guard. It’s all defense for Maddalena, who’s trying to limit his opponent’s offense from above. Makhachev looks to advance to lock up a choke. Maddalena seems to be wise to it, and he recovers full guard. The round ends with Maddalena landing an illegal upkick on Makhachev, who had a knee down.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev

Round 2
Maddalena misses a front kick and Makhachev answers with a hard calf kick. Makhachev leaps in with a two-punch combo then moves away. Makhachev lands a leg kick and then slides away with his jab. Maddalena partially blocks a high kick. Maddalena lands a solid shot as Makhachev closes the range. The Dagestani shoves his foe into the fence. Maddalena tries to defend by stepping over the top, but he ends up on his back near the fence. Makhachev works from half guard with 3:00 to go in the frame. Makhachev drops an elbow as he methodically controls the action. Maddalena isn’t doing much in the way of initiating a scramble. Short elbows land for Makhachev. The combatants move further away from the fence, and it’s still Makhachev in control. Maddalena considers moving to a hip but thinks better of it, maybe due to the threat of the submission. Makhachev creates some room to drop a series of elbows. Maddalena gets to his feet with about 10 seconds to go. Makhachev ends the frame with a knee to the body. One-way traffic so far.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev

Round 3
Maddalena throws a jab and then an inside leg kick. A much harder low kick lands for Makhachev. A calf kick from Makhachev makes Maddalena stumble. Makhachev picks up the pace and lands a combination. They clinch, and Maddalena finds a home for some body work. Makhachev attacks with a leg kick before executing a quick level change — and Maddalena is back on the floor. Maddalena does a good job defending his opponent’s desired choke, but Makhachev is otherwise in a dominant position again. Makhachev works diligently to pass guard as he peppers his foe with short punches. Makhachev switches from punches to elbows while continuing to apply top pressure. Maddalena gets to his knees, but he’s unable to create anything during a late scramble before the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev

Round 4
Maddalena tries a high kick but Makhachev is ready for it. Makhachev lands a body kick as his opponent moves forward. Makhachev lands an inside leg kick. Another body kick connects for the Dagestani. Maddalena isn’t offering much in the way of offense at this point in the fight. Another low kick makes Maddalena hop briefly. Suddenly, Makhachev explodes for a takedown and he gets it with about 3:30 left in the period. Maddalena tries to create space with his guard, but Makhachev floats on top and deftly transitions to the back. The former lightweight king locks in a body triangle, and then he briefly collects one of Maddalena’s arms. The Aussie frees his limb, but he’s flat on his back again. It’s rinse and repeat for Makhachev, who continues to maintain significant pressure from half guard. Makhachev is thinking about a kimura, and Maddalena scoots to a seated position. Maddalena stands with 10 seconds left, but he can’t break his foe’s grip before the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev

Round 5
Like Weili Zhang before him, Maddalena needs a miracle to come out with a victory. Maddalena tries to pressure early, but Makhachev takes him down with ease less than 30 seconds into the period. Makhachev is looking to frame a kimura once again, but Maddalena escapes the submission. It’s essentially turned into a repeat of the earlier rounds. Maddalena doesn’t have any answers for Makhachev, and the only suspense at this point is whether the Dagestani will be able to secure a submission before the final horn. For now, Makhachev is just staying busy with pressure and occasional offense from top position. Maddalena briefly recovers full guard, but he’s grimacing as Makhachev continues to impose his will. Makhachev briefly has a choke locked in, but Maddalena again avoids the finish. As time ticks away, an “Islam” chant rains down, led by Khabib Nurmagomedov from the corner. Maddalena scrambles up right before the horn once again, but it’s of little importance. Makhachev has his 16th consecutive victory in hand, and he’s about to be a two-division champion.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev (50-45 Makhachev)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev (50-45 Makhachev)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev (50-45 Makhachev)

The Official Result
Islam Makhachev def. Jack Della Maddalena via Unanimous Decision (50-45, 50-45, 50-45) R5 5:00
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Angelo picks Islam Makhachev, emphasizing his relentless wrestling and ability to chain takedowns. He acknowledges Jack Della Maddalena's size and scrambling but believes Islam's wrestling pressure will be too much. He notes this is a tough fight due to JDM's size but still picks Islam.

"I'm gonna go with the wrestler here... I think the relentless wrestling pressure from Islam is going to be enough."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Big Brady picks Islam Makhachev, citing Jack Della Maddalena's history of making mistakes on the ground, such as surviving deep submissions against Anshul Jubli and Ramazan Emeev. He believes Makhachev will capitalize on those mistakes, get takedowns, and secure a submission, likely a D'Arce choke. Brady notes Della Maddalena has been taken down frequently and thinks Makhachev's grappling is on another level. He predicts a second-round submission.

second round submission
"I'm going to take Islamachev to win this fight by second round submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Cody agrees with Paul, emphasizing that Islam's wrestling and game plan are perfectly suited to beat Jack. He notes that Jack's takedown defense was exposed by Belal and Gilbert Burns, who are not on Islam's level. Cody highlights that Islam has Khabib in his corner and will stick to the game plan of taking Jack down and controlling him. He predicts a decision or late finish for Islam.

"ride this man like a miniature pony for 25 minutes, pick up a decision, or finish him late if the opportunity opens up."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Connor picks Makhachev based on his superior wrestling and grappling. He notes that Makhachev has diverse takedown entries and rarely loses positions, while Della Maddalena has shown takedown defense issues and made bad grappling decisions against Belal. He acknowledges Della Maddalena's punching power but believes Makhachev's wrestling will be the deciding factor.

Odds: Makhachev opened -265, now -250; Della Maddalena opened +225, now +210. Connor mentions the line move and jokes about fight fixing.
"I still have to pick Makachev just out of hand here. I really cannot watch the body of work that both men have done and say that I trust JDM to stay on his feet and out punch Makachev at …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Daniel acknowledges Jack's toughness and underrated grappling, but believes Islam's grappling is on another level. He notes that Jack has been taken down by lesser grapplers and that Islam's darce choke and grip strength are exceptional. He expects Islam to capitalize on the ground where others couldn't, but warns that if the fight stays on the feet, Jack could hurt Islam with body shots.

"I think I got to go with Makachev because I've seen Jack in those vulnerable spots on the mat and I think that Islam can capitalize where other guys weren't able to do it."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Lucrative James picks Islam Makhachev to win by decision. He believes Islam's grappling is a massive advantage, as he will take JDM down and control him, similar to his fights against Dustin Poirier and Alexander Volkanovski. He notes JDM's improved grappling defense but thinks Islam's wrestling and jiu-jitsu are too much. He predicts the fight goes the distance, with Islam winning via control and possibly threatening submissions but not finishing.

fight goes to decision
"I'm going to pick Islam Makv. I'm going to pick him via decision."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Makhachev's move to welterweight is calculated. He wears Della Maddalena down with wrestling. Della Maddalena's BJJ improvements keep him from being finished, but Makhachev wins on the scorecards to become champion.

"Look for Makachev to really wear Matalena down. Although I expect the BJJ improvements of Matalena to keep him out of trouble in terms of getting finished. Thus, I'm going to put pick Makashev to win this fight on the …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Paul believes Islam's wrestling will be the difference. He notes that Jack's takedown defense has improved but that Belal Muhammad had success wrestling late in their fight, and Islam is a much better wrestler. He also points out that Jack's win over Belal was a split decision and that he was controlled on the ground. Paul thinks Islam's size is not a concern and that he will bring the title back to Dagestan.

"the title's coming home to Dagestan on Saturday night."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

The Guru picks Jack Della Maddalena to win by TKO in round three or four. He believes JDM's grappling defense and scrambling ability will neutralize Makhachev's takedowns, and his striking volume and body work will take over in later rounds. He compares JDM to a better version of Dustin Poirier, who had success against Makhachev. The Guru sees Makhachev's path to victory only via early submission, which he doubts.

over 1.5 rounds (mentioned in prizepicks segment)
"I'm going with Jack Dela Madelena. I think this is actually Makashev's [ __ ] arm holding the belt, which doesn't bode well."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Zane agrees with Connor, picking Makhachev due to his wrestling advantage. He highlights that Della Maddalena struggled with Belal's wrestling and that Makhachev is a much better wrestler. He also notes the weight class change and Makhachev's potential decline but still favors him.

Same odds commentary as Connor.
"So yeah, I think you have to pick Makachev, but that is fascinating. It's the champion taking literally the most dangerous..."
Submission (brabo choke) R1 4:05 · UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · Jan 18, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Islam Makhachev 0 6 of 19 31% 18 of 31 1 of 2 50% 1 0 1:27
Renato Moicano 0 9 of 27 33% 18 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Islam Makhachev 0 6 of 19 31% 18 of 31 1 of 2 50% 1 0 1:27
Renato Moicano 0 9 of 27 33% 18 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Islam Makhachev 6 of 19 31% 5 of 17 1 of 2 0 of 0 5 of 18 0 of 0 1 of 1
Renato Moicano 9 of 27 33% 2 of 18 3 of 5 4 of 4 9 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Islam Makhachev 6 of 19 31% 5 of 17 1 of 2 0 of 0 5 of 18 0 of 0 1 of 1
Renato Moicano 9 of 27 33% 2 of 18 3 of 5 4 of 4 9 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 12, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Angelo picks Islam Makhachev, noting his improvements in striking and his wrestling dominance. He acknowledges Arman Tsarukyan's takedown of Makhachev in their first fight but believes Makhachev's size, cardio, and overall game will prevail. He mentions Tsarukyan's chin being questionable after being dropped by a 40-year-old Silva.

"I think he wins here I think he gets it done I think the wrestling will be there I think the Striking is going to be better than armen's"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Cody picks Islam Makhachev to retain, citing Islam's championship experience, improved wrestling, and ability to handle five rounds. He notes that Arman Tsarukyan has improved but still relies heavily on wrestling and tends to tire in later rounds. Cody also mentions that Islam has already beaten Tsarukyan once and has only gotten better since. He suggests a live bet strategy or a small hedge on Tsarukyan if the parlay is still alive.

Live bet strategy: if Makhachev wins first round, cash; if loses, get better live price. Also mentions hedging with Tsarukyan if parlay is alive.
"I expect michev to win the longer it goes but if he can win the first round oh we're money if he loses the first round you could get a better live price on it in the betting Market"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Connor picks Islam Makhachev to win, citing his superior poise, technical striking, and defensive wrestling. He notes that Makhachev has become one of the best strikers in the division with a calm, principled approach, while Arman still fights with tension and wastes energy. Connor emphasizes that Makhachev's ability to stay relaxed and make good decisions under pressure gives him a clear edge, especially given their first fight where Makhachev outlasted Arman. He acknowledges Arman's improvements in finishing ability but believes Makhachev's overall game has grown more.

Odds opened at -336, now -366; Arman opened +278, now +299. Connor thinks the line is too wide but is confident in Makhachev.
"I think we're both warming ourselves up here for the eventual we're picking Islam Makhachev to win the match."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jan 14, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Renato Moicano

Daniel picks Moicano as a significant underdog, citing that Makhachev's days at 155 are numbered and he is looking to move up to 170. He notes that Makhachev has shown vulnerability in recent fights, with Dustin Poirier stuffing 11 takedowns and Volkanovski stuffing 5. Daniel believes Moicano can match Makhachev's wrestling and has dangerous kicks and knockout power, as seen against Benoit Saint-Denis. He also mentions the location in Los Angeles with a large Armenian population as a motivating factor for Moicano.

Daniel took Moicano at +305 and says he would take him at +300 against any 155-pounder. He mentions the fight being in LA with a large Armenian population as a factor.
"I would take plus 300 on him against anybody I mean right now that's how good of a fighter he is so it's definitely a doger pass situation"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Lucrative James picks Islam Makhachev to win, citing his superior striking improvements against top competition like Dustin Poirier, Alexander Volkanovski, and Charles Oliveira. He expects the fight to feature more striking than their first bout, where Arman Tsarukyan was hesitant. James notes Islam's experience in five-round fights and counter-wrestling as key advantages, but acknowledges Arman's improved striking and power as potential threats. He mentions Islam's chin as a vulnerability, having been wobbled before, but ultimately believes Islam's overall skill set and prime condition will prevail.

Arman Tsarukyan at +310 is worth a one-unit shot for value
"I ultimately think Islam makev is going to come out with the win I think there's value in Arman surin's price tag at plus 310 he may be worth a one unit shot for me"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Islam Makhachev

The host acknowledges Tsarukyan has improved since their first fight and his power striking could cause issues. However, he believes Makhachev will create grappling opportunities and squeeze out a decision victory. He likes the fight to go to decision and does not like the heavy chalk on Makhachev but still expects him to win.

fight goes to decision
"I think makev will create grappling opportunities that he will be able to come out ahead on it might be grindy it might be slow it might not be the most entertaining but I think makev will squeeze his way …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Paul agrees with Cody that Islam Makhachev will retain, noting that Islam has learned from the first fight and has a better understanding of Tsarukyan's style. He acknowledges Tsarukyan's knockout potential but believes Islam's experience and preparation will prevail. Paul also points out that Islam is a rightful favorite and a parlay piece for him this week.

Mentions Tsarukyan by knockout at +600 or +700 as a possible shot, but not banking on it.
"I think Islam retains as well minus 3557 at cool but is the best number on Market uh that I can see right now as well"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 14, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

The MMA Guru picks Islam Makhachev to win a close decision. He argues that Arman Tsarukyan cannot finish Makhachev and is unlikely to win a decision due to Makhachev's status. He notes Makhachev's clinch work and body knees are key weapons, and he expects Makhachev to win 3-2 or 4-1 on the scorecards. He also mentions that Tsarukyan's low kicks are not as effective as he remembered.

decision
"mlam makev will win I think he'll win a close decision I think it'll be razor close"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Zane agrees with Connor, picking Makhachev. He highlights Makhachev's unflappable poise and technical striking, contrasting it with Arman's all-or-nothing style that led to his loss in the first fight. Zane notes that Makhachev has improved significantly since then, becoming a more complete fighter, while Arman still tends to expend energy recklessly. He also points out that Makhachev's southpaw stance could trouble Arman, who hasn't looked great against southpaws. Zane acknowledges Arman's increased violence and finishing ability but believes Makhachev's calmness and defensive skills will prevail.

Same odds commentary as Connor.
"I think we're both warming ourselves up here for the eventual we're picking Islam Makhachev to win the match."
Submission (brabo choke) R5 2:42 · UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · Jun 01, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Islam Makhachev 0 88 of 156 56% 147 of 222 5 of 16 31% 2 0 10:23
Dustin Poirier 0 74 of 183 40% 104 of 218 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:30
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Islam Makhachev 0 6 of 9 66% 46 of 53 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:23
Dustin Poirier 0 1 of 5 20% 11 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Islam Makhachev 0 26 of 46 56% 30 of 50 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:49
Dustin Poirier 0 24 of 58 41% 32 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
3 Islam Makhachev 0 18 of 24 75% 24 of 33 1 of 1 100% 1 0 2:10
Dustin Poirier 0 15 of 36 41% 16 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
4 Islam Makhachev 0 20 of 44 45% 29 of 53 1 of 6 16% 0 0 2:28
Dustin Poirier 0 23 of 61 37% 34 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
5 Islam Makhachev 0 18 of 33 54% 18 of 33 1 of 4 25% 1 0 0:33
Dustin Poirier 0 11 of 23 47% 11 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Islam Makhachev 88 of 156 56% 81 of 148 7 of 7 0 of 1 71 of 136 11 of 14 6 of 6
Dustin Poirier 74 of 183 40% 53 of 159 18 of 20 3 of 4 51 of 157 23 of 26 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Islam Makhachev 6 of 9 66% 6 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 7 0 of 0 2 of 2
Dustin Poirier 1 of 5 20% 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 1 1 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Islam Makhachev 26 of 46 56% 23 of 42 3 of 3 0 of 1 17 of 36 6 of 7 3 of 3
Dustin Poirier 24 of 58 41% 18 of 51 5 of 6 1 of 1 14 of 47 10 of 11 0 of 0
3 Islam Makhachev 18 of 24 75% 18 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0 15 of 21 2 of 2 1 of 1
Dustin Poirier 15 of 36 41% 13 of 34 1 of 1 1 of 1 15 of 35 0 of 1 0 of 0
4 Islam Makhachev 20 of 44 45% 17 of 41 3 of 3 0 of 0 18 of 41 2 of 3 0 of 0
Dustin Poirier 23 of 61 37% 12 of 49 11 of 12 0 of 0 12 of 50 11 of 11 0 of 0
5 Islam Makhachev 18 of 33 54% 17 of 32 1 of 1 0 of 0 17 of 31 1 of 2 0 of 0
Dustin Poirier 11 of 23 47% 9 of 21 1 of 1 1 of 1 9 of 20 2 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 26, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Angelo picks Islam Makhachev confidently, citing his superior wrestling and pressure. He believes Islam will get takedowns at will and potentially finish Dustin Poirier. He acknowledges Poirier's toughness and one-punch power but thinks the grappling gap is too wide. He mentions a fantasy scenario where Poirier wins by submission but calls it highly unlikely.

"Islam makev is absolutely the pick and I am very confident in that"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 31, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Big Brady is heavily on Islam Makhachev, calling him his favorite play on the board and planning 100% exposure. He expects Islam to get takedowns and finish in the second or third round. He acknowledges Dustin Poirier's power and cheap price but sees a very limited path for Poirier. He will sprinkle a little on Poirier but is confident Islam gets the job done inside the distance.

fight doesn't go to decision (-550), Islam Makhachev wins inside the distance, Dustin Poirier to land more than 0.5 significant strikes (free square on PrizePicks)
"I'm going to have a ton of Islam in this matchup he's probably my favorite play on the board"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 29, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Cody agrees Makhachev is the favorite but notes Poirier's puncher's chance and the appealing +500 underdog price. He discusses Poirier's win over Benoît Saint Denis, which he considers tainted due to Saint Denis having a staph infection. Cody believes Makhachev will take Poirier down and grind him out, likely submitting him late or winning by TKO. He also likes the over 2.5 rounds at +145.

over 2.5 rounds (+145)
"Obviously Makhachev is the favorite but he's starting to take on almost too much money... Poirier is a bonafide legend... the more you're getting these giant plus 500 type price tags on them the more appealing it does become."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 30, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Daniel Vreeland picks Makhachev but disagrees that he's a better striker than Poirier. He notes Makhachev's striking is overrated based on the Volkanovski fight. However, he believes Poirier will give up too many positions and won't be on his feet long enough to win a decision. Vreeland thinks Poirier's only path is a finish, but Makhachev is durable and has gone 25 minutes with Volkanovski. He suggests Poirier's props (KO or submission) are better value than his moneyline.

Poirier by submission +800 or +900, Poirier inside distance
"I don't think makev is as hitable as the people who Dustin PO is beating with his hands"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 28, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Daniel acknowledges Islam's dominant grappling and improved striking, noting his win over Volkanovski. He points out that Dustin has faced grapplers like Khabib and Oliveira, but the Dagestani style is uniquely relentless. He mentions the possibility of Poirier landing a check hook like Martins did, but ultimately sees Islam's path to victory as more likely. He is rooting for Poirier but picks Islam as a pure pick.

"as a pure pick I will pick Islam but I'm rooting for porier here"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked May 30, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Jeff Fox picks Makhachev, calling him 'Khabib with hands.' He believes Poirier has no advantage anywhere, especially now that Makhachev is knocking people out on the feet. Fox sees no realm where Poirier is better and expects Makhachev to dominate.

"obviously makev is my pick here he's he's basically khabib with hands"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 27, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

The host expects Makhachev to take the fight to the ground and submit Poirier, similar to how Khabib and Oliveira did. Poirier's grappling defense has been exploited by elite wrestlers, and Makhachev's pressure and top control should lead to a rear-naked choke. The host sees this as an easy win for Makhachev and likes the submission prop.

submission
"Give me Makhachev, Makhachev by submission."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 29, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Paul picks Makhachev to win, noting Poirier's age (35) and the historical stat that fighters over 35 under 155 lbs are 0-15 in title fights. He believes Makhachev's takedowns will be there whenever he wants, but warns that Makhachev has had bad performances before (like against Adriano Martins and Volkanovski) and could get into trouble if he stands with Poirier. He suggests betting the over 1.5 or over 2.5 rounds instead of the moneyline at -700.

over 1.5 rounds, over 2.5 rounds (+145)
"I don't really like Poirier against any of these Dagestani wrestlers... takedowns are going to be there for Makhachev whenever he wants them."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 27, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

The MMA Guru picks Islam Makhachev, predicting a first-round submission via arm triangle or Von Flue choke. He explains that Poirier's habit of going for guillotines leaves his arm in a vulnerable position. He also notes that Makhachev's striking has evolved to be more counter-based, reducing the chance of getting caught. He mentions Poirier's hip issues limiting his kicks and takedown defense.

Makhachev wins in round 1 by submission (arm triangle or Von Flue choke)
"I think he's going to lose very bad in round one with absolute [__] ease"
KO (head kick and punches) R1 3:06 · UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · Oct 21, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Islam Makhachev 1 24 of 29 82% 39 of 46 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:19
Alexander Volkanovski 0 4 of 6 66% 11 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:49
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Islam Makhachev 1 24 of 29 82% 39 of 46 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:19
Alexander Volkanovski 0 4 of 6 66% 11 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:49
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Islam Makhachev 24 of 29 82% 13 of 16 9 of 11 2 of 2 7 of 11 8 of 9 9 of 9
Alexander Volkanovski 4 of 6 66% 0 of 1 1 of 1 3 of 4 3 of 5 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Islam Makhachev 24 of 29 82% 13 of 16 9 of 11 2 of 2 7 of 11 8 of 9 9 of 9
Alexander Volkanovski 4 of 6 66% 0 of 1 1 of 1 3 of 4 3 of 5 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 15, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Angelo picks Islam Makhachev, calling him a discount at -170. He thinks Islam will be all-in on wrestling this time, unlike the first fight where he took Volkanovski lightly. He notes Volkanovski is coming off the couch with no camp, while Islam had a full camp. He expects Islam to tire Volkanovski and win more decisively. He considers Islam safe to parlay.

parlay inclusion, odds comment: discount at -170
"I like Islam to win and uh honestly I think he's a discount right now he's only minus 170"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Big Brady picks Islam Makhachev to win by dominant decision. He notes that Volkanovski is coming off elbow surgery on short notice, while Makhachev is improving, especially in striking. In their first fight, Makhachev clearly won and controlled the grappling. Brady expects Makhachev to take Volkanovski's back and ride out rounds, winning a clear decision.

decision
"I got to go Islam here and I'm take Islam to win this fight by pretty dominant decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Cody picks Makhachev, emphasizing that Volkanovski is coming off the couch and had surgery, so he won't be at his best. He notes that Makhachev took Volkanovski down four times in their first fight and controlled him for eight minutes, and expects a similar or better performance in Abu Dhabi. Cody also mentions that Makhachev is in his prime and getting better, while Volkanovski just turned 35 and may not have celebrated his birthday properly.

Makhachev by decision, Makhachev over 3 takedowns on PrizePicks
"I think the short notice takes a little bit away from it with Islam Makhachev he's 31 years old he's in the prime of his life he's still getting better"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 19, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Daniel picks Islam Makhachev to win, citing that Islam is more physical, dictates the pace, and has the hometown advantage in Abu Dhabi where a close decision will go to Islam. He notes Volkanovski's elite feinting game and durability but believes Islam's weight cut and fatigue issues from the first fight are mitigated by Volkanovski taking the fight on short notice. He expects a competitive fight but sees Islam winning, possibly by decision, though he doesn't rule out a finish.

Islam minus 255, Volkanovski plus 250; mentions fight likely goes five rounds again
"I do have to pick Islam makev in this fight... I just think that this is Islam time at this weight class right now and I think he's going to get it done."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2023 (fight day)
Islam Makhachev

James predicted Makhachev would win by KO, citing that Makhachev had hurt Volkanovski multiple times in their first fight and that Volkanovski's conditioning might not be there on short notice. He noted that Makhachev's ground and pound could come into play if Volkanovski faded. James was very confident, placing a 5-unit bet on Makhachev moneyline and a half-unit bet on the TKO prop. He also mentioned that he switched from betting Volkanovski in the first fight to Makhachev in this rematch due to the damage Makhachev inflicted.

Makhachev by KO/TKO at +450 to +600; under 4.5 rounds
"I said Islam Makhachev is going to knock out Alexander Volkanovski... I cashed on Islam KO, I cashed on Islam money line, and I also cashed on the under four and a half rounds."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

Volkanovski is a live underdog despite short notice. He has already fought Makhachev once and knows what to change. He is a freak athlete who can give a solid 25-minute performance. Makhachev is unlikely to finish him, and Volkanovski's cardio and durability should allow him to win a close decision. The line is too wide.

over 4.5 rounds (fight goes the distance)
"I'm going to take volkanovski I'm going to take him once again and hope that he can pull this one out Win It by decision down the stretch"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Paul picks Islam Makhachev, citing that Volkanovski is coming off the couch and recent surgery, which diminishes his preparation. He notes that Makhachev is in full camp, younger, and fighting in Abu Dhabi where the judges may favor him. Paul expects Makhachev to control the fight with takedowns and ground control, similar to their first fight, and sees value in Makhachev by decision at plus money.

Makhachev by decision (+185 to +200), Makhachev over 3 takedowns on PrizePicks
"I think you go Makhachev and because I have so much faith that Volkanovski truly is that badass I think I chase out Volkanovski by or by Islam Makhachev by decision again try to get some additional value"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 16, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

The MMA Guru picks Islam Makhachev by third-round TKO. He believes Volkanovski will be weaker and smaller than in their first fight because he didn't have a full camp at 155 and is coming off a 145 fight. He thinks Makhachev will be bigger and stronger. He predicts Makhachev will land knees in the clinch, eventually catching Volkanovski with a knee to the face. He also notes that Volkanovski is rushing back from injuries.

Makhachev wins in round 3 by TKO
"I think makev is going to catch vog in the third round"
Decision (unanimous) (48–47, 48–47, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski · Feb 12, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Islam Makhachev 0 57 of 95 60% 95 of 135 4 of 9 44% 0 0 7:37
Alexander Volkanovski 1 70 of 143 48% 164 of 255 0 of 4 0% 0 0 2:55
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Islam Makhachev 0 10 of 16 62% 18 of 25 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:04
Alexander Volkanovski 0 11 of 23 47% 14 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Islam Makhachev 0 19 of 32 59% 30 of 44 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:57
Alexander Volkanovski 0 19 of 34 55% 30 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:53
3 Islam Makhachev 0 16 of 22 72% 20 of 26 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:35
Alexander Volkanovski 0 14 of 37 37% 19 of 43 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:29
4 Islam Makhachev 0 4 of 9 44% 19 of 24 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:25
Alexander Volkanovski 0 6 of 13 46% 49 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Islam Makhachev 0 8 of 16 50% 8 of 16 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:36
Alexander Volkanovski 1 20 of 36 55% 52 of 72 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:33
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Islam Makhachev 57 of 95 60% 36 of 72 18 of 20 3 of 3 45 of 82 12 of 13 0 of 0
Alexander Volkanovski 70 of 143 48% 37 of 96 21 of 33 12 of 14 58 of 125 6 of 10 6 of 8
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Islam Makhachev 10 of 16 62% 5 of 11 3 of 3 2 of 2 10 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alexander Volkanovski 11 of 23 47% 4 of 13 5 of 7 2 of 3 11 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Islam Makhachev 19 of 32 59% 12 of 24 7 of 8 0 of 0 13 of 25 6 of 7 0 of 0
Alexander Volkanovski 19 of 34 55% 8 of 20 7 of 10 4 of 4 18 of 32 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 Islam Makhachev 16 of 22 72% 10 of 15 5 of 6 1 of 1 14 of 20 2 of 2 0 of 0
Alexander Volkanovski 14 of 37 37% 7 of 26 4 of 8 3 of 3 11 of 32 2 of 4 1 of 1
4 Islam Makhachev 4 of 9 44% 3 of 8 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alexander Volkanovski 6 of 13 46% 4 of 10 1 of 1 1 of 2 6 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Islam Makhachev 8 of 16 50% 6 of 14 2 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 12 4 of 4 0 of 0
Alexander Volkanovski 20 of 36 55% 14 of 27 4 of 7 2 of 2 12 of 25 3 of 4 5 of 7
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lock picked Feb 5, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Angelo picks Islam Makhachev with high confidence, arguing that Volkanovski's size disadvantage and lack of one-punch power or submission threat make him an easy matchup for Islam. He notes that Volkanovski's takedown defense is suspect (Ortega took him down twice) and that Islam's grappling is suffocating. He has a three-unit bet on Islam at -330 and expects the line to close around -500.

Islam safe for parlays
"I have a three unit moneyline bet on Islam at minus 330"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Big Brady is confident in Makhachev, citing his size advantage and elite grappling. He thinks Volkanovski's takedown defense won't hold up against a lightweight wrestler like Makhachev. He predicts a submission win in the third round, noting Volkanovski's toughness but believing Makhachev will eventually catch him.

third round submission
"I'm going to take mahachiev to win I'm gonna take him to win by submission and I'll say it happens in the third round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Feb 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Cody picks Makhachev but thinks the -400 line is too high and sees value in Volkanovski as a hedge. He notes Volkanovski's path to victory is keeping the fight standing and outworking Makhachev in later rounds, as Makhachev is a low-volume striker. He also mentions Volkanovski's durability and ability to escape submissions from Ortega. He suggests building parlays around Makhachev and throwing a small bet on Volkanovski at +300.

suggests hedging with Volkanovski at +300
"I'm picking Islam mankachev but I think the best path here is build parlays maybe around mankachev and then when it gets down to the main event don't be be too proud to just throw a couple bucks on vulcanovski …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 10, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Connor picks Makhachev, emphasizing his superior grappling and ability to chain attacks. He notes that Volkanovski's get-up game, while improved, may not work against Makhachev's patient, trap-setting style. Connor highlights that Makhachev's team prepares specific counters to opponents' tendencies, and that Volkanovski's path to victory requires tiring Makhachev, which has never been done. He also mentions that Volkanovski's striking is better, but the wrestling threat neutralizes it.

"I think i'm still going to pick mocka chip here at the end of the day just because like... it's a hard place to start and be like but I also think he's going to lose."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

Volkanovski is the pound-for-pound best, undefeated in 22 fights over 10 years. His defensive grappling is elite; no one has held him down. Makhachev's competition is overrated—Volkanovski would beat everyone Makhachev faced. Volkanovski's cardio and striking will take over late as Makhachev tires from unsuccessful grappling. The size difference is a concern but Volkanovski's strength and bulking up mitigate it. At +300, the value is tremendous.

over 2.5 rounds at -175; fight goes all five rounds
"the fact that we're getting the number one pound for pound fighter a fighter who has been undefeated in 22 professional mixed martial arts fights over 10 years that you can get him at plus 300 is absolutely crazy to …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Paul believes Makhachev will take Volkanovski down at will and eventually finish him inside the distance. He notes Volkanovski was taken down twice by Brian Ortega and lucky to escape submissions, and that Makhachev's hands have improved. He sees Volkanovski's only path as a big overhand right, but thinks Makhachev wins 80% of the time via submission or TKO. He bet Makhachev inside the distance at -105 to -110.

Makhachev inside the distance at -105/-110
"I took some uh makachev inside the distance... I got one book it was minus 105 but another book it was minus 110."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

The MMA Guru picks Islam Makhachev over Alexander Volkanovski, emphasizing Makhachev's size, strength, and grappling. He believes Makhachev will use clinch knees and head kicks to finish Volkanovski in the third round by TKO. He notes Volkanovski leads with his head, which Makhachev can exploit with knees.

third round TKO
"I'm gonna go with Islam makashev third round TKO"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 10, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Zane also picks Makhachev, agreeing with Connor that the grappling advantage is decisive. He notes that Volkanovski's takedown defense is not elite and that Makhachev's pressure and chain wrestling will likely overwhelm him. Zane points out that Volkanovski's best chance is to make it a striking match, but Makhachev's wrestling threat will stifle that. He also mentions that Makhachev's preparation is meticulous, targeting specific weaknesses.

"All right, we're both gonna pick uh... well, we're both picking makachev. He is the favorite here."
Submission (arm-triangle choke) R2 3:16 · UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev · Oct 22, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Islam Makhachev 0 19 of 39 48% 25 of 46 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:42
Charles Oliveira 1 30 of 41 73% 72 of 86 2 of 3 66% 1 0 5:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Islam Makhachev 0 6 of 11 54% 10 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:38
Charles Oliveira 0 12 of 18 66% 51 of 60 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:48
2 Islam Makhachev 0 13 of 28 46% 15 of 30 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:04
Charles Oliveira 1 18 of 23 78% 21 of 26 0 of 1 0% 1 0 1:17
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Islam Makhachev 19 of 39 48% 7 of 23 12 of 15 0 of 1 10 of 26 7 of 8 2 of 5
Charles Oliveira 30 of 41 73% 25 of 35 5 of 6 0 of 0 21 of 31 5 of 5 4 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Islam Makhachev 6 of 11 54% 1 of 5 5 of 6 0 of 0 2 of 5 2 of 2 2 of 4
Charles Oliveira 12 of 18 66% 9 of 15 3 of 3 0 of 0 5 of 10 3 of 3 4 of 5
2 Islam Makhachev 13 of 28 46% 6 of 18 7 of 9 0 of 1 8 of 21 5 of 6 0 of 1
Charles Oliveira 18 of 23 78% 16 of 20 2 of 3 0 of 0 16 of 21 2 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 16, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Angelo picks Islam Makhachev, arguing that Islam's wrestling and control will be the difference. He notes that Charles Oliveira's submission wins mostly come when he gets the takedown, not when he is taken down. He believes Islam can get takedowns, avoid submissions, and control the fight. He acknowledges Oliveira's danger but is confident in Islam.

"I like Islam to get the takedowns keep the control avoid the submissions I think islamankachev wins this fight I'm very confident in that"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Big Brady picks Makhachev to win by TKO in the third round. He believes Makhachev will take Oliveira down easily and eventually get to a dominant position. Oliveira is dangerous off his back but has been finished before (seven finish losses). Makhachev's wrestling and top control should wear Oliveira down, leading to a ground-and-pound stoppage.

third round TKO
"I think Islam finishes some ground and pound TKO in that third round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Oct 19, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Charles Oliveira

Cody acknowledges Makhachev's relentless grinding and pressure style, but notes Oliveira's elite jiu-jitsu and striking power. He points out that Oliveira has been a live underdog before, with plus money wins in his last two fights. Cody is concerned about Makhachev's ability to hang in Oliveira's guard without getting submitted. He ultimately leans Oliveira because of the value and Oliveira's diverse finishing ability, though he admits it's a conflicted pick.

under in the fight
"ever so slightly I think I'm gonna go with uh my fellow Horseman Charles Oliveira"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 20, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Connor argues that Makhachev must grapple with Oliveira and that he is too dominant and technical on the ground to be swept or submitted. He notes that Oliveira has been outgrappled before by fighters like Paul Felder, Anthony Pettis, and Ricardo Lamas, and that Makhachev's patience and cardio will allow him to slow-cook Oliveira over five rounds. He emphasizes that Makhachev's submission defense and ability to avoid trouble in scrambles make him a safe pick.

"Even if Makhachev does end up in trouble so long as he isn't finished with one shot, we're gonna end up in a grappling sequence where Makhachev is just I think too dominant too technical."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Daniel Levi picks Islam Makhachev to win the lightweight title. He believes Islam's Dagestani wrestling and grappling will allow him to engage with Charles Oliveira on the ground where previous opponents were hesitant. Levi notes that Oliveira has been dropped in recent fights but opponents respected his guard and backed off, whereas Islam will not be intimidated and will follow up. He also mentions that Islam's striking, especially high kicks, is underrated and that he absorbs very few strikes. Levi acknowledges Oliveira's improved confidence and submission threat but thinks Islam's grappling pedigree and ability to neutralize submissions will be the difference. He bet 2 units at -162.

Bet 2 units at -162. Notes that Islam is a discount at these odds compared to his usual -300 to -600 lines. Expects the fight to favor Islam as it goes longer.
"I actually bet islamicachev in the spa and I bet I'm at -162."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 18, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Makhachev's wrestling is the key factor; Oliveira hasn't faced a wrestler of this caliber since Kevin Lee. Makhachev has five-round cardio and can neutralize Oliveira's jiu-jitsu by passing guard and getting to dominant positions. Oliveira's striking advantage won't matter if the fight goes to the ground. Makhachev inside the distance at -105 is the pick, likely finishing in the second or third round.

Makhachev inside the distance at -105; under 2.5 rounds at -160; fight doesn't go to decision as parlay piece
"give me my hot Chef inside the distance minus 105. I love his money line as well where it's at minus 180"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 19, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Charles Oliveira

Paul is confident in Oliveira, citing that he grabbed Oliveira at +285 earlier and added more at +175. He questions Makhachev's striking defense, referencing the Adriano Martins knockout, and believes Oliveira's style is problematic for Makhachev. Paul thinks Oliveira can win on the feet or by submission, and doesn't understand the 66% win probability for Makhachev. He sees Oliveira as a very live dog.

bet at +285 and +175
"it's Charles Oliveira pass as far as I'm concerned I don't really understand jumping um at like 66 percent win percentage islamakachev in this situation whatsoever"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Charles Oliveira

The MMA Guru picks Charles Oliveira over Islam Makhachev, despite being the underdog. He notes that BJJ fighters with hands have given Makhachev problems (e.g., Thiago Moises, Davi Ramos). He believes Oliveira's pressure and striking will rock Makhachev, leading to a guillotine submission in round one. He also cites Makhachev's lack of big-fight experience and the pressure of fighting in Abu Dhabi.

guillotine in round one
"I've got Charles Oliveira winning this one dominantly"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 20, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Zane agrees that Makhachev should grapple and believes he will find takedowns against Oliveira, who is willing to engage on the ground. He notes that Makhachev's multi-directional takedown threats and ability to chain attacks will overwhelm Oliveira. He also points out that Oliveira's recent success is partly due to opponents being afraid to follow him to the ground, but Makhachev will not hesitate.

"I think that Makhachev is going to find that if he gets in on takedowns against Charles Oliveira, Charles Oliveira is probably gonna give many of them up."
WIN vs King Green
TKO (punches) R1 3:23 · UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Green · Feb 26, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Islam Makhachev 0 14 of 32 43% 30 of 51 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:57
King Green 0 9 of 13 69% 11 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Islam Makhachev 0 14 of 32 43% 30 of 51 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:57
King Green 0 9 of 13 69% 11 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Islam Makhachev 14 of 32 43% 10 of 27 2 of 2 2 of 3 3 of 10 2 of 2 9 of 20
King Green 9 of 13 69% 2 of 5 6 of 6 1 of 2 4 of 8 3 of 3 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Islam Makhachev 14 of 32 43% 10 of 27 2 of 2 2 of 3 3 of 10 2 of 2 9 of 20
King Green 9 of 13 69% 2 of 5 6 of 6 1 of 2 4 of 8 3 of 3 2 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Angelo picks Islam Makhachev, believing he will dominate Bobby Green with his wrestling and grappling. He notes that while Green is a better striker, Makhachev has enough striking to avoid getting hurt and will then take the fight to the ground where he can control and finish. Angelo acknowledges that Makhachev hasn't faced top-ranked opponents yet, but he expects him to blow through Green as a heavy favorite. He also mentions a two-unit parlay with Makhachev and Arman Tsarukyan at around -180.

Two-unit parlay with Islam Makhachev and Arman Tsarukyan at approximately -180
"i think he absolutely dismantles bobby green i think he blows through bobby green islam is absolutely my pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 21, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Big Brady picks Islam Makhachev to win by submission. He notes that Makhachev absorbs only 0.79 significant strikes per minute and no opponent has landed more than 13 strikes on him in the UFC. He highlights that Bobby Green has never faced a wrestler or grappler of Makhachev's caliber and has been taken down by lesser fighters. Brady believes Green's path to victory is a knockout, but Green hasn't knocked anyone out since 2013. He respects Green for stepping in on short notice but sees this as a terrible matchup for him.

Makhachev by submission; line is accurate but Brady won't bet at -700
"I got mahachev no hot take um but i think he gets it done and i will not be betting on bobby green like a lot of people seem to be doing but i can tell you i will also …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Cody is confident in Makhachev's grappling dominance, citing his wins over Dan Hooker, Drew Dober, and Thiago Moises. He notes that Makhachev's style mirrors Khabib's and that Bobby Green's path to victory is a knockout, which is unlikely given Green's lack of one-punch power. Cody acknowledges the wide odds but still picks Makhachev as a top parlay piece, though he mentions hedging with a small bet on Green by KO at +1100.

Green by KO +1100 (DraftKings), hedge suggestion
"i like islam i like him a lot you know he's just like your boy could be nurmagomedov"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Feb 24, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Daniel Levi picks Islam Makhachev to win via submission or ground-and-pound TKO. He notes that Bobby Green is durable and will stuff early takedowns, but Makhachev's relentless pressure will eventually wear him down. Levi mentions the fight goes the distance is plus 250 but does not think Green can survive five rounds. He emphasizes Makhachev's point to prove and expects a statement finish.

fight goes the distance +250 (does not think it hits)
"i think he does make a statement i think he submits bobby green and i think he gets his title shot"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Hesitant picked Feb 23, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Jacob picks Islam Makhachev but is hesitant, stating that if Bobby Green had a full camp, he would have been his lock of the week. He believes Green's pressure and volume are the best defense against takedowns, and that Green's unorthodox boxing could trouble Makhachev. Jacob thinks Makhachev might try to stand and prove a point, but ultimately expects him to win via wrestling. He also mentions placing a half-unit bet on Green at +550, showing his uncertainty.

Half-unit bet on Bobby Green at +550
"my pick's gonna be islam i'm not gonna pick bobby green but i'm just saying if there was ever anyone that could beat islam outside that top five it's gonna be bobby green"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Makhachev is a heavy favorite at -800, and the host believes he will dominate with his wrestling. He expects Makhachev to repeatedly take Green down and control him on the ground, though he thinks Green's defensive grappling may prevent a finish. The host notes Green's lack of power and predicts Makhachev wins by decision, also suggesting a bet on over 1.5 rounds.

over 1.5 rounds
"i'm gonna go islam hachev and uh in terms of a method of victory since you guys are putting a gun to my head i have a hypothetical gun to my head i'm going to go with this lama chevy …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Paul agrees that Makhachev is the clear winner but is tempted to sprinkle on Bobby Green at +600 due to the wide line. He notes Green's volume and pace could make it competitive if he avoids takedowns, but ultimately sees Makhachev's grappling as too much. Paul mentions the line has moved from -700 to -900, making it less appealing for a straight bet.

sprinkle on Bobby Green +600, Green by KO +1100
"i'm kind of tempted cody to wait and see how how wide this line gets and then maybe just sprinkle on bobby green a little bit"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 21, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

The MMA Guru picks Islam Makhachev to win by third-round rear-naked choke. He acknowledges Bobby Green's counter-grappling and durability but believes Makhachev's size, physicality, and superior grappling will be too much. He notes that Green's output drops significantly when facing wrestlers, as seen against Thiago Moises and Francisco Trinaldo. The Guru also highlights that the catchweight of 160 lbs benefits Makhachev by easing his weight cut, potentially improving his chin and conditioning. He expects Makhachev to wear Green down against the cage, take his back in a scramble, and secure the choke in the third round.

third round rear-naked choke submission; odds are -800 (implied from 'eight to one favorite'); Makhachev by submission in round 3
"i'm going to go the third round very naked choke for islam makashev over bobby green"
WIN vs Dan Hooker
Submission (kimura) R1 2:25 · UFC 267: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira · Oct 30, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Islam Makhachev 0 2 of 3 66% 13 of 14 1 of 1 100% 2 0 1:48
Dan Hooker 0 4 of 13 30% 19 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Islam Makhachev 0 2 of 3 66% 13 of 14 1 of 1 100% 2 0 1:48
Dan Hooker 0 4 of 13 30% 19 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Islam Makhachev 2 of 3 66% 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dan Hooker 4 of 13 30% 1 of 10 0 of 0 3 of 3 4 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Islam Makhachev 2 of 3 66% 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dan Hooker 4 of 13 30% 1 of 10 0 of 0 3 of 3 4 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 26, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Big Brady picks Islam Makhachev to win by dominant decision. He believes Makhachev's wrestling will be relentless and he will control Hooker on the ground. Hooker has good takedown defense on paper but hasn't faced a wrestler of Makhachev's caliber. Hooker has never been submitted, so a decision is likely. He respects Hooker for stepping in but thinks it's a tough matchup.

Makhachev by decision
"I'll say uh makachev does uh get it done by a pretty convincing dominant decision here."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 27, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Cody agrees with Islam by decision, citing Hooker's durability and chin. He notes Hooker has only been knocked out twice (by Barboza body kick and Chandler) and has good submission defense. He thinks Islam's grappling will control the fight but Hooker will survive to a decision.

Islam by decision
"i agree with democracy call uh i go back to hooker's nep he's only been knocked out one time"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 28, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Daniel picks Islam Makhachev, citing his dominant wrestling and submission skills, including making Tiago Moises tap. He notes Hooker's durability and striking but believes Islam's grappling will be the difference. Daniel is curious to see if Islam tests his striking but expects a dominant performance. He mentions the line is too high to bet.

comments on line being too high to bet
"i mean look if it's a pick um fight you got to go with islam but i ain't laying no minus 700"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 28, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Makhachev's wrestling and pressure will be overwhelming for Hooker, who took the fight on short notice. Hooker's only chance is a KO, but Makhachev's striking has improved and he will likely take Hooker down repeatedly. Makhachev wins a decision or possibly a late finish.

Makhachev by decision -105, Hooker inside distance +675, Hooker by KO +850.
"I'm going to go with islam and i'm going to take him to win this fight via decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 27, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Paul picks Islam Makhachev by decision, noting Hooker's durability and that Hooker has never been submitted. He thinks Islam's suffocating top control and methodical approach will lead to a decision win. He mentions the over 2.5 rounds is -160 and he likes that as well.

Over 2.5 rounds (-160), Islam by decision
"maka jeff by decision is my official pick"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 24, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

The MMA Guru picks Islam Makhachev over Dan Hooker. He thinks Makhachev's grappling is superior and that Hooker's camp is not ideal. He predicts Hooker may win the first round with his length and clinch work, but Makhachev will take over in rounds two and three with takedowns and positional dominance. He expects a 29-28 unanimous decision for Makhachev, possibly a boring fight. He also notes that even with a perfect camp, Hooker would likely lose.

"i'm going with islam makashev here"
Dan Hooker - Fight History
KO R2 4:45 · UFC 325 · Feb 01, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Benoît Saint Denis 0 30 of 47 63% 51 of 68 0 of 1 0% 2 0 0:28
Dan Hooker 0 97 of 127 76% 170 of 205 2 of 9 22% 2 0 6:14
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Benoît Saint Denis 0 26 of 41 63% 34 of 49 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:22
Dan Hooker 0 35 of 46 76% 62 of 73 2 of 6 33% 0 0 1:55
2 Benoît Saint Denis 0 4 of 6 66% 17 of 19 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:06
Dan Hooker 0 62 of 81 76% 108 of 132 0 of 3 0% 2 0 4:19
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Benoît Saint Denis 30 of 47 63% 19 of 32 8 of 12 3 of 3 28 of 44 2 of 3 0 of 0
Dan Hooker 97 of 127 76% 83 of 113 14 of 14 0 of 0 20 of 32 10 of 11 67 of 84
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Benoît Saint Denis 26 of 41 63% 16 of 27 8 of 12 2 of 2 24 of 38 2 of 3 0 of 0
Dan Hooker 35 of 46 76% 24 of 35 11 of 11 0 of 0 16 of 27 8 of 8 11 of 11
2 Benoît Saint Denis 4 of 6 66% 3 of 5 0 of 0 1 of 1 4 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dan Hooker 62 of 81 76% 59 of 78 3 of 3 0 of 0 4 of 5 2 of 3 56 of 73
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 25, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Benoît Saint Denis

Angelo picks Benoît Saint Denis, citing his non-stop pressure, well-timed takedowns, and heavy top control. He notes that Dan Hooker's takedown defense is solid overall but fails against better wrestlers, and BSD is relentless. Angelo acknowledges Hooker's heart and striking but questions his motivation and game-planning. He expects a war and thinks BSD's style will overwhelm Hooker.

"I am gonna pick Benois Saint Deni. I think the non-stop pressure combined with his ability to get this fight to the ground, his unwillingness to back up, I think that's all going to suit him really well."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 25, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Benoît Saint Denis

Big Brady is confident in Benoît Saint Denis, believing there's a big levels difference on the mat. He notes Dan Hooker has looked poor off his back against wrestlers like Islam Makhachev and Armen Serukian, and Saint Denis will take him down and submit him. He also thinks Saint Denis can knock Hooker out, as Arnold Allen and Michael Chandler have done. Brady predicts a second-round submission.

Saint Denis by submission in round 2
"I think Saint Denis is starting to finally gain back some momentum ... I think he's going to take down Dan Hooker and get him out of there in the second round."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Jan 28, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Dan Hooker

Cody is switching his pick to Dan Hooker as a value play, despite acknowledging the risks. He notes that Saint Denis is hittable and has shown defensive flaws, and that Hooker has faced elite competition and has the toughness to survive takedowns. He expects a close fight and thinks Hooker can win a decision or even get a finish if Saint Denis tires. However, he admits he doesn't love the pick and it will be near the bottom of his parlay.

"I think I'm going to switch my pick from Ben Saint to Dan Hooker. And this might be what I was talking about last week. I don't want to just take these random value plays anymore."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Jan 29, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Dan Hooker

Connor picks Hooker because he believes Saint Denis falls apart when put on the back foot and is not a clean finisher. He thinks Hooker can survive the early onslaught and rally back, as Saint Denis has never shown an ability to withstand a comeback. However, he acknowledges that Hooker is not as durable as Poirier and could get run over early, making it a 50/50 fight.

Odds: Hooker +285, Saint Denis -350. Connor notes that Saint Denis's win over Daryush is not as impressive as it seems.
"I am going to pick Hooker because Benoit Saint Denis does fall apart so bad on the back foot. And because Benoit Saint Denis is not a clean finisher."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2026 (17 days before fight)
Benoît Saint Denis

Daniel Vreeland is extremely confident in Saint Denis, predicting he will run through Hooker and finish him. He believes Hooker is past his prime and overranked, while Saint Denis is a violent finisher with relentless pressure and a strong ground game. Vreeland even bet on Saint Denis at minus 250 and made a bold prediction that Hooker will never win another UFC fight.

"I think Benois Santine is going to come out here and destroy Dan Hooker, embarrass him in violent fashion."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Jan 25, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Benoît Saint Denis

James picks BSD to win, acknowledging his bias as a New Zealander rooting for Hooker. He believes BSD's wrestling and grappling will be too much for Hooker at this stage, and that the fight won't go to decision. He notes Hooker is the better striker but BSD can land takedowns and submissions. James is hesitant because he wants Hooker to win but thinks BSD's path is more likely.

fight doesn't go to decision
"Gun to my head, I'm going to pick BSD to win the fight. I think the wrestling and the grappling is going to be a little bit too much for Dan at this stage of his career."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 27, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Benoît Saint Denis

Saint Denis is a talented grappler with good finishing ability, likely to get a submission within the first two rounds. Hooker has decent defensive grappling but may struggle with Saint Denis's smothering style. The host prefers the 'fight doesn't go to decision' prop at -220 over the moneyline chalk. Hooker's striking and cardio could be factors if he survives early, but Saint Denis is expected to get the submission.

fight doesn't go to decision (-220); Saint Denis by submission; Hooker round 2/3 props at +500/+1800
"I think Sandee wins. I think he gets that submission within the first round."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jan 28, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Dan Hooker

Paul hates the -350 price on Saint Denis and prefers the fight not to go the distance, as Saint Denis fights are almost always finishes. He leans toward Hooker if forced to pick a moneyline side, citing Saint Denis's tendency to get hit and Hooker's durability. He also mentions the time zone difference as a potential factor.

Fight doesn't go to decision
"I hate BSD minus 350. I think the fight doesn't go to decision is my favorite play in this fight."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 31, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Benoît Saint Denis

The Guru picks Benoît Saint Denis, agreeing with the odds. He highlights Saint Denis's grappling, power, and aggression, predicting he will submit Dan Hooker. He notes Hooker's recent damage and broken nose, and believes Saint Denis's pressure and body kicks will be too much.

submission
"I'm going to go with Benoisant Dener."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Jan 29, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Dan Hooker

Zane also picks Hooker, citing Saint Denis's inability to fight going backward and his lack of defense or footwork on the retreat. He notes that Hooker has the counters for a bullheaded wrestling game and that if Hooker survives the first round, he has a good chance to finish or win a decision. However, he admits that Hooker could easily get trounced early, as seen in fights against Chandler and Allen.

Odds: Hooker +285, Saint Denis -350. Zane mentions that Saint Denis's win over Daryush is not as impressive as people think.
"I'm also going to pick Hooker. I just feel like it's the fact that he doesn't like to fight going backwards. He doesn't counter. He doesn't know how to throw back."
LOSS vs Arman Tsarukyan
Submission R2 3:34 · UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · Nov 22, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Arman Tsarukyan 0 42 of 60 70% 69 of 89 2 of 4 50% 1 0 6:02
Dan Hooker 0 10 of 33 30% 17 of 41 0 of 0 --- 2 0 0:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Arman Tsarukyan 0 19 of 30 63% 32 of 45 1 of 3 33% 0 0 3:16
Dan Hooker 0 5 of 20 25% 9 of 25 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:10
2 Arman Tsarukyan 0 23 of 30 76% 37 of 44 1 of 1 100% 1 0 2:46
Dan Hooker 0 5 of 13 38% 8 of 16 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Arman Tsarukyan 42 of 60 70% 33 of 49 3 of 5 6 of 6 18 of 31 2 of 2 22 of 27
Dan Hooker 10 of 33 30% 3 of 20 6 of 12 1 of 1 9 of 30 1 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Arman Tsarukyan 19 of 30 63% 12 of 22 2 of 3 5 of 5 15 of 26 2 of 2 2 of 2
Dan Hooker 5 of 20 25% 2 of 13 2 of 6 1 of 1 4 of 17 1 of 3 0 of 0
2 Arman Tsarukyan 23 of 30 76% 21 of 27 1 of 2 1 of 1 3 of 5 0 of 0 20 of 25
Dan Hooker 5 of 13 38% 1 of 7 4 of 6 0 of 0 5 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Nov 16, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Angelo leans Arman Tsarukyan over Dan Hooker, but calls the -550 odds insane. He notes Tsarukyan's wrestling and striking are elite, but Hooker has heart and takedown defense, as seen against Gamrot. Tsarukyan should get takedowns and control Hooker, but Hooker could make it a dogfight. Angelo suggests Hooker at +5.5 is a decent bet.

Minus 550 is insane; Dan Hooker at plus five and a half seems like it could be a decent bet.
"I have to slightly lean Arman Sooqi because of the wrestling upside, but minus 550 is insane."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Big Brady picks Arman Tsarukyan (Magomed Ankalaev) by third-round KO, citing his championship caliber and youth. He notes Hooker's struggles against top competition and expects Ankalaev to finish him via TKO on the mat or a big shot on the feet.

third round KO
"I'm going to take Magomed Ankalaev to win this fight and win it by third round KO."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Nov 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Cody picks Arman Tsarukyan but is hesitant due to the betting line. He notes Arman has the grappling edge and is younger, but Dan Hooker thrives in five-round fights and has a decent get-up game. Cody worries about Arman's past fatigue and the possibility of judges favoring damage over control time in Qatar. He suggests hedging after the first round if Hooker is still competitive.

"I got Arman Sukian, but I'm not loving the number I'm getting here, Paul."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Nov 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Connor picks Tsarukyan as a knee-jerk reaction, citing his elite grappling and top control. He notes Hooker's vulnerability to early finishes and slow starts, but acknowledges Hooker's toughness and 25% chance of a KO. Connor emphasizes Tsarukyan's bullying style and potential to finish quickly on the ground.

Tsarukyan by submission or early KO; Hooker has 25% chance to clip him
"I'm picking Suruken, but I still like this fight. You know, I think, I guess all of this is to say that like, I think you have to pick Suruken as just sort of a knee-jerk reaction to this fight."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 16, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Lucrative James picks Arman Tsarukyan despite rooting for Dan Hooker. He cites Arman's elite wrestling as the key factor, noting Hooker's historical struggles with grapplers. He mentions Arman's age advantage (29 vs 35), recent training with the Russian Olympic wrestling team, and improved submission game. He also notes Hooker's inactivity and hand surgery concerns. However, he acknowledges Hooker's dangerous striking and hopes for an upset.

submission prop mentioned as potentially live
"I do think Arman Surukin is going to win this matchup. That would be my pick gun to my head."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 18, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Tsarukyan is a top lightweight with elite wrestling and cardio. Hooker is durable but has taken a lot of damage. Tsarukyan should dominate with grappling and pressure, winning by decision or late finish. The method is uncertain but the win is solid.

"I think Sukian wins. I think he wins at a pretty decent clip."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Nov 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Dan Hooker

Paul leans towards Dan Hooker as a plus money underdog, citing value at plus 420. He acknowledges Arman's takedowns are the path of least resistance against Hooker, but believes Hooker can hang around and make it competitive. Paul mentions that if forced to bet one side right now, he'd take Hooker, but he doesn't have to bet it.

"I'd probably take this plus 420 on Dan Hooker."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

The MMA Guru picks Arman Tsarukyan over Dan Hooker, citing Arman's superior grappling and ability to maintain dominant positions. He notes Hooker's broken arms and believes Arman will finish him via ground and pound in round two or three. He acknowledges Hooker's underrated takedown defense but trusts Arman's improvement.

second or third round mount ground and pound TKO
"I'm going to go with Arman Tsarukyan here over Dan Hooker."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Nov 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Zane agrees with Connor, picking Tsarukyan due to his superior wrestling and top control. He notes Hooker's tendency to start slow and get overwhelmed, but also mentions Hooker's durability and ability to make fights competitive over five rounds. Zane highlights Tsarukyan's power and speed as key factors.

Tsarukyan by finish; Hooker could make it a war
"I fully believe that Armand Suruken can do both of those things. You know, he has the power to do that, to do either, to just go out and flatten Hooker or to go out, take him down and break …"
CANCEL vs Justin Gaethje
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 305: du Plessis vs. Adesanya · Aug 18, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dan Hooker 0 64 of 129 49% 88 of 154 5 of 15 33% 0 0 4:59
Mateusz Gamrot 0 65 of 143 45% 82 of 162 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:28
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dan Hooker 0 26 of 54 48% 31 of 59 2 of 4 50% 0 0 1:31
Mateusz Gamrot 0 20 of 43 46% 24 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:17
2 Dan Hooker 0 11 of 17 64% 27 of 34 2 of 4 50% 0 0 2:37
Mateusz Gamrot 0 17 of 34 50% 27 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:44
3 Dan Hooker 0 27 of 58 46% 30 of 61 1 of 7 14% 0 0 0:51
Mateusz Gamrot 0 28 of 66 42% 31 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:27
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dan Hooker 64 of 129 49% 56 of 119 6 of 8 2 of 2 43 of 97 2 of 2 19 of 30
Mateusz Gamrot 65 of 143 45% 41 of 111 24 of 32 0 of 0 44 of 119 4 of 6 17 of 18
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dan Hooker 26 of 54 48% 22 of 50 2 of 2 2 of 2 9 of 28 2 of 2 15 of 24
Mateusz Gamrot 20 of 43 46% 9 of 28 11 of 15 0 of 0 15 of 38 1 of 1 4 of 4
2 Dan Hooker 11 of 17 64% 8 of 13 3 of 4 0 of 0 7 of 11 0 of 0 4 of 6
Mateusz Gamrot 17 of 34 50% 12 of 26 5 of 8 0 of 0 7 of 23 1 of 1 9 of 10
3 Dan Hooker 27 of 58 46% 26 of 56 1 of 2 0 of 0 27 of 58 0 of 0 0 of 0
Mateusz Gamrot 28 of 66 42% 20 of 57 8 of 9 0 of 0 22 of 58 2 of 4 4 of 4
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Aug 11, 2024 (7 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Angelo picks Mateusz Gamrot but is hesitant, acknowledging that Dan Hooker is a live underdog who can drop Gamrot, as many have. He believes Gamrot's relentless wrestling and pace will be too much, but Hooker's heart and striking make it close. He plans to bet on Hooker via the plus 3.5 round spread, expecting Hooker to win at least one round.

Will bet Dan Hooker +3.5 when prop drops
"I'm going to pick gamr ultimately I don't love it but I'm going to pick gamr because I do think the wrestling is just too [__] much."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Big Brady picks Mateusz Gamrot to win by decision. He notes Gamrot's style is to spam takedowns (almost 20 per 15 minutes) and he expects Gamrot to lay on Hooker, limiting Hooker's offense. He points out that Hooker has not faced many wrestlers aside from Islam Makhachev, who submitted him in the first round. He acknowledges some arguments for Hooker based on damage scoring but believes Gamrot's takedown volume will be overwhelming. He says it's not a fight he's entirely looking forward to.

decision
"I got to go game Rod here gamr by decision makes most sense to me"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Dan Hooker

Cody believes Hooker's pressure, durability, and fan-friendly style will sway judges, especially if Gamrot's wrestling is neutralized. He notes Gamrot has been knocked down in half his UFC fights and gasses late, while Hooker has proven cardio and a chin. Cody also mentions the possibility that Gamrot may be told not to wrestle, which would play into Hooker's hands.

"I got a hooker knocking out matus gameron"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Vreeland picks Gamrot, citing his relentless pressure and wrestling volume. He argues Hooker can stuff a few takedowns but cannot stop 15-20 attempts. He compares Gamrot's wrestling to Islam Makhachev's explosiveness, far superior to Jalin Turner's. He expects a grimy, grinding win for Gamrot.

"give me the gamer give me gamrot give me a russle heavy uh fight here over hooker"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Aug 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Daniel Vreeland picks Mateusz Gamrot to win a split decision, but is hesitant due to Gamrot's sloppy striking and tendency to get dropped. He notes that Hooker has finishing upside and that Gamrot's path to victory is through grinding with takedowns and top control. Vreeland says the fight is a dog-or-pass situation and that he would not lay the juice on Gamrot.

"I'm picking gamrot to win you know like I think he's going to win a a a decision where in one round he's dropped he gets kicked with a body kick he gets dropped like but then he gets that …"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Fox agrees with Gamrot, acknowledging Hooker's good performance against Turner but noting Gamrot's pressure and wrestling are a different level. He emphasizes Gamrot's relentless takedown threat and explosive entries, which he believes Hooker cannot handle over three rounds.

"I'm gonna go gamr too"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

The host picks Gamrot, citing his relentless wrestling and grappling. He notes Hooker's toughness and ability to land damage from defensive positions, which could sway judges. He expects Gamrot to win by decision, but warns the line is too wide given the narrow margin. He prefers the Gamrot by decision prop if at plus money.

Gamrot by decision (if +100 or better)
"the official prediction will be gamr and gamra by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Paul expects Gamrot to use his wrestling to control Hooker, taking him down repeatedly and grinding out a decision. He acknowledges Hooker's toughness but believes Gamrot's chain wrestling and takedown volume will be too much. Paul also notes that Hooker hasn't faced a dedicated wrestler recently and that Gamrot's 11-takedown performance against dos Anjos shows his commitment to wrestling.

"I like a gamr by decision"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 12, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

The MMA Guru picks Mateusz Gamrot over Dan Hooker. He notes Hooker's wins have asterisks due to injuries and long layoffs, and he questions Hooker's durability in a grappling match. He praises Gamrot's grappling, especially his low single-leg shots from distance that avoid knees, and his ability to transition without getting guillotined. He believes Gamrot will ragdoll Hooker, citing Hooker's poor takedown defense against Islam Makhachev. He also notes the fight is three rounds, which slightly helps Hooker, but still picks Gamrot.

"I'm going with matus gamr over Dan hooker... I think his grappling is going to be too good"
WIN vs Jalin Turner
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez · Jul 08, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dan Hooker 0 100 of 177 56% 113 of 191 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:18
Jalin Turner 1 125 of 197 63% 172 of 247 0 of 2 0% 1 0 3:09
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dan Hooker 0 34 of 69 49% 34 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jalin Turner 0 38 of 54 70% 39 of 55 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Dan Hooker 0 34 of 60 56% 34 of 60 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Jalin Turner 0 44 of 81 54% 48 of 85 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:16
3 Dan Hooker 0 32 of 48 66% 45 of 62 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:18
Jalin Turner 1 43 of 62 69% 85 of 107 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:53
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dan Hooker 100 of 177 56% 63 of 128 30 of 37 7 of 12 78 of 152 18 of 21 4 of 4
Jalin Turner 125 of 197 63% 77 of 139 25 of 32 23 of 26 100 of 157 19 of 31 6 of 9
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dan Hooker 34 of 69 49% 16 of 47 13 of 14 5 of 8 30 of 64 4 of 5 0 of 0
Jalin Turner 38 of 54 70% 16 of 29 8 of 9 14 of 16 35 of 51 3 of 3 0 of 0
2 Dan Hooker 34 of 60 56% 23 of 44 9 of 12 2 of 4 25 of 51 9 of 9 0 of 0
Jalin Turner 44 of 81 54% 27 of 59 9 of 13 8 of 9 38 of 70 6 of 11 0 of 0
3 Dan Hooker 32 of 48 66% 24 of 37 8 of 11 0 of 0 23 of 37 5 of 7 4 of 4
Jalin Turner 43 of 62 69% 34 of 51 8 of 10 1 of 1 27 of 36 10 of 17 6 of 9
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 2, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Jalin Turner

Angelo is confident in Turner, calling him a 'pretty easy pick'. He notes Turner's excellent boxing, range management, and well-roundedness (3 of last 4 wins by submission). Hooker is durable but Angelo thinks he'll be a step behind. He is only slightly concerned about Hooker turning it into a wrestling match, but believes Turner can handle it. He recommends Turner for parlays.

Could be parlayed
"Jalen's a pretty easy pick for me and he could be parlayed I like Jalen Turner I'm pretty confident in him in this fight for sure"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 1, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Jalin Turner

Big Brady picks Jalin Turner to win by first-round knockout. He notes that Turner is very dangerous with scary power, and Hooker has been knocked out recently by Michael Chandler and Arnold Allen. He believes Hooker will try to wrestle but doesn't have the takedown game to exploit Turner's takedown defense. He expects a striking match where Turner finishes Hooker early. He mentions that Turner is five years younger and more in his prime.

first round knockout
"I'm taking Jaylen Turner to win this fight I'll say first round knockout win for Jalen Turner"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Jul 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jalin Turner

Cody picks Turner but is hesitant at -260. He thinks Turner's length and power will be too much for Hooker, who has taken a lot of damage. He notes Hooker's durability may be fading. He considers the under 1.5 rounds but doesn't feel great about it. He mentions Turner's cardio issues in the past but expects an early knockout.

Under 1.5 rounds (+100), Turner by KO/TKO
"I think Jalen Turner Sparks him but minus 260 I'll admit you got way more experience down for Dan hooker"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jalin Turner

Connor picks Turner, emphasizing that Hooker's game relies on being the taller fighter with reach, which he won't have here. He notes that Turner's pressure and collar-tie game will be effective, and that Hooker's slow starts and reactive style play into Turner's hands. Connor sees Turner as younger, faster, and more powerful, making this a bad matchup for Hooker.

"I just don't really know how Dan Hooker's game operates as the shorter man. I just think it's gonna be not good."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jalin Turner

Daniel Levi picks Turner, noting that he has improved his range management and defense, and that Hooker has taken too much damage throughout his career. Levi points out that Hooker will be the shorter man for the first time, facing a three-inch reach disadvantage. He acknowledges that the minus-260 price is high but believes Turner is catching Hooker at the right time. Levi also mentions that Turner has been training outside his comfort zone, including in Abu Dhabi with Khamzat Chimaev, which shows his dedication to improvement.

"I'll probably take Jill attorney also I would definitely like to wait and let the odds drop a little more though."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2023 (fight day)
Jalin Turner

James picks Jalin Turner to win by knockout. He notes Turner is on an upward trajectory while Hooker is on a downward one. He praises Turner's improved speed, accuracy, and range management. He acknowledges Turner's chin is questionable and Hooker could land, but thinks Hooker will have to endure too much punishment. He also mentions Turner missed weight but doesn't think it was intentional.

Jalin Turner wins by KO
"my prediction is Jalen by knockout in this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jalin Turner

Turner has dangerous striking and a strong submission game, while Hooker is hittable and has durability concerns. Hooker may have a technical striking advantage and output, but Turner's power and ability to club and sub will eventually catch Hooker. Fight doesn't go to decision is the favorite spot.

fight doesn't go to decision
"I'm going to go Jalen Turner Jalen Turner probably by club and sub but I think fight doesn't go to decision is my favorite spot in this fight."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jul 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jalin Turner

Paul picks Turner but struggles with the price. He notes Hooker's durability has declined after many wars. He thinks Turner likely finishes him early but doesn't see value at -260. He would consider the under 1.5 rounds but isn't confident. He mentions Hooker's size and experience as potential factors.

Under 1.5 rounds (+100)
"I'm gonna pick Jalen Turner but I don't really think there's much meat on the bone to uh to be batting him"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 3, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Jalin Turner

The MMA Guru picks Jalin Turner to win by second-round TKO. He criticizes Hooker's lack of head movement and declining chin, noting that Turner has a similar reach and will land clean shots. He believes Turner's patience and power will overwhelm Hooker, who has shown slower reaction times recently.

wins by TKO in the second round
"I reckon he is going to win this one by TKO in the second round"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jalin Turner

Zane picks Turner, citing his size, speed, and pressure. He notes that Hooker struggles when faced with bigger, more determined fighters who march him down, as seen against Arnold Allen and Michael Chandler. Zane believes Turner's pressure and power will make Hooker uncomfortable, and that Hooker's game as the shorter man is untested and likely to fail.

"I started watching tape and I'm like, you know what, Jalen Turner is just gonna walk away with this, I think."
TKO (body kick) R2 4:06 · UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · Nov 12, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dan Hooker 1 29 of 63 46% 37 of 73 0 of 0 --- 1 0 2:08
Claudio Puelles 0 5 of 18 27% 5 of 18 0 of 8 0% 1 0 0:08
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dan Hooker 0 10 of 27 37% 16 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:11
Claudio Puelles 0 0 of 5 0% 0 of 5 0 of 2 0% 1 0 0:00
2 Dan Hooker 1 19 of 36 52% 21 of 38 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:57
Claudio Puelles 0 5 of 13 38% 5 of 13 0 of 6 0% 0 0 0:08
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dan Hooker 29 of 63 46% 8 of 34 13 of 16 8 of 13 24 of 58 0 of 0 5 of 5
Claudio Puelles 5 of 18 27% 1 of 12 3 of 5 1 of 1 5 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dan Hooker 10 of 27 37% 2 of 13 2 of 3 6 of 11 10 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
Claudio Puelles 0 of 5 0% 0 of 4 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Dan Hooker 19 of 36 52% 6 of 21 11 of 13 2 of 2 14 of 31 0 of 0 5 of 5
Claudio Puelles 5 of 13 38% 1 of 8 3 of 4 1 of 1 5 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Dan Hooker

Angelo likes Hooker's striking and believes he can keep the fight standing. He notes that Puelles has poor takedown defense and Hooker has only been submitted once in his career. He picks Hooker to win the striking exchanges and get his mojo back. He plans to bet on Puelles inside the distance (decision no action) because he sees Hooker winning by decision or Puelles by submission, not Hooker by stoppage.

Claudio Puelles inside the distance (decision no action) on BetOnline
"Dan hooker's the pick I'm curious what you guys think"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Dan Hooker

Big Brady picks Dan Hooker to win by knockout in the first or second round. He argues Hooker's competition has been much tougher (Islam, Arnold Allen, Chandler, Poirier) and that Puelles is a big step down. He praises Hooker's takedown defense (78%) and notes he has beaten good grapplers like Gilbert Burns and Jim Miller. He criticizes Puelles' striking and believes Hooker will beat him up on the feet, though he acknowledges Puelles' knee bar threat.

Hooker by KO in round 1 or 2; Puelles by knee bar is possible but unlikely
"I think Dan hooker honestly just beats the crap out of poisonous on the feed"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Dan Hooker

Cody picks Dan Hooker, arguing that Hooker's losses have come against elite competition and that Puelles has not impressed him. He notes that Puelles' wins are against lower-level opponents and that his striking is not dangerous. Cody believes Hooker's takedown defense and striking volume will allow him to dominate on the feet and win a decision, as Puelles is durable but not a finisher.

"I'll take Dan hooker... I think hookers still got a little something left in the tank which is enough to beat Paula so sign me up for the hangman."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Dan Hooker

Daniel Levi picks Dan Hooker, citing Hooker's superior striking volume, variety, and experience against top competition. He notes that Puelles is a submission specialist, but Hooker has shown he can defend leg locks (e.g., against Ian Entwistle and Al Iaquinta). Levi is concerned about Hooker's durability after recent knockdowns but believes Puelles doesn't have the power to exploit that. He sees this as a test for Puelles to see if he's ready for the top 15, and he's not convinced yet. Levi expects Hooker to win via striking or top control.

"my pick is Dan hooker um but let's see if Claudio's ready for it"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 8, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Dan Hooker

The host believes Hooker is the far superior striker and BJJ player, and that Puelles' only path is a submission like a kneebar, which won't work against Hooker. He dismisses Hooker's 1-4 run because the losses were to elite fighters (Poirier, Chandler, Islam, Allen), while Puelles is not at that level. He expects Hooker to win easily, possibly by KO or submission, and recommends the moneyline or inside the distance.

Hooker inside the distance
"I'm considering you know what inside the distance probably the best way to go hooker via KO is live submission is live"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Dan Hooker

Paul also picks Dan Hooker, agreeing that Puelles' stand-up is not a threat and that Hooker should dominate on the feet. He notes that if the fight goes to the ground, Puelles could grab a leg, but on the feet it should not be competitive. Paul believes Hooker's durability is slightly compromised but still enough to beat Puelles.

"I'm with you on that... on the feet this shouldn't even be remotely competitive to be perfectly honest."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Dan Hooker

The MMA Guru picks Dan Hooker, believing he will stuff takedowns and expose Puelles' stand-up. He notes Puelles' struggles against strikers and Hooker's takedown defense against elite grapplers like Al Iaquinta and Gilbert Burns. He predicts a vintage Hooker KO at the end of the first round, citing Hooker's comfort at lightweight.

TKO in the first round
"I'm going with Dan hooker"
LOSS vs Arnold Allen
TKO (punches and elbows) R1 2:33 · UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Aspinall · Mar 19, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Arnold Allen 0 49 of 84 58% 50 of 85 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Dan Hooker 0 14 of 49 28% 14 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Arnold Allen 0 49 of 84 58% 50 of 85 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Dan Hooker 0 14 of 49 28% 14 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Arnold Allen 49 of 84 58% 43 of 78 0 of 0 6 of 6 46 of 75 3 of 9 0 of 0
Dan Hooker 14 of 49 28% 11 of 44 0 of 2 3 of 3 14 of 49 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Arnold Allen 49 of 84 58% 43 of 78 0 of 0 6 of 6 46 of 75 3 of 9 0 of 0
Dan Hooker 14 of 49 28% 11 of 44 0 of 2 3 of 3 14 of 49 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Arnold Allen vs. Dan Hooker

Round 1
A high-stakes featherweight matchup serves as UFC London’s co-main event, with Allen (17-1, 8-0 UFC) putting his eight-fight UFC win streak on the line against former lightweight contender Hooker (21-11, 11-7 UFC). What follows next is sure to be frenetic action from bell to bell, and referee Dan Movahedi is on top of this intriguing battle. They are happy to touch gloves first, though, before Hooker flashes out a jab and tries to follow with a right. Hooker walks Allen down with punches and a front kick, and the size difference is apparent early as Hooker uses his long reach. Hooker mixes in punches with low kicks, and he walks through an Allen right hand as if it weren’t there. Allen replies with a leg kick, and he lets his hands go with his opponent and rocks Hooker. Allen starts throwing bungalows, and he continues to batter Hooker and knock him from one side of the cage to the other. “The Hangman” chomps down on his gumshield and throws caution to the wind, hurting Allen right back, but Allen gathers himself and continues his onslaught of punches. Hooker’s durability may be a double-edged sword as he does not ever hit the ground, but he is taking serious damage from Allen’s barrage. Hooker manages to defend himself and escape, and the two have to take a serious breather. They go back to a safer, non-brawling range, and Hooker looks to calm down and find an avenue to attack.
Allen suddenly attacks again, having gotten his wind back, and he lets loose with a one-two that shakes Hooker up. “Almighty” Allen does not let him escape this time, going up high with a kick and then pounding on Hooker as Hooker falls back to the fence. Allen closes in, and he starts ripping elbows amidst the punches, and he is looking to finish the job here. Hooker is barely upright, likely still on his feet because the cage is at his back, and Movahedi is moving in close to get involved. Allen does not relent on his assault, smashing Hooker with punches and nasty elbows until Movahedi has seen enough.
What a furious frenzy for as long as it lasted, and Allen put on a show as he advanced to 9-0 in the UFC. Big fights loom for Britain’s own Allen.

The Official Result
Arnold Allen def. Dan Hooker R1 2:33 via TKO (Punches and Elbows)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Mar 12, 2022 (7 days before fight)
Arnold Allen

Angelo picks Arnold Allen but expresses two concerns: Allen only fights once a year, and Dan Hooker is moving down to featherweight, which could make him big and strong or drained. He notes that Hooker's odds have flipped from underdog to favorite, but he still likes Allen's youth, speed, power, and grappling. He mentions Allen's ability to come back from adversity, like submitting Bernal after being taken down six times.

"i actually like arnold allen to win but i have two concerns the first is he only fights once a year... and the second is dan hooker's coming down in weight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Mar 14, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Dan Hooker

Big Brady picks Dan Hooker to win by decision, calling it an unpopular opinion. He notes Hooker is moving down to 145 and will have a massive size advantage with four inches in height and five and a half in reach. Brady believes Hooker's takedown defense is good enough to keep the fight standing, and he favors Hooker's output and power over Allen's low volume. He also mentions Allen's best win was against Sadiq Yusuf in a close fight where Allen was outlanded.

"i will be going with dan hooker i'm going to take dan hooker to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 16, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Dan Hooker

Cody picks Hooker, citing Allen's lack of activity and close fights against lower-level opponents. He notes Hooker's volume and pace, and thinks Allen's wrestling won't be enough. He mentions waiting for weigh-ins due to Hooker's weight cut concerns.

"i'm gonna go with dan hooker"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Mar 17, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Arnold Allen

Daniel Levi picks Arnold Allen at plus money, having bet him at +105 before the line flipped. He believes Allen is a top prospect flying under the radar, with a well-rounded game and no clear holes. Levi points out that Dan Hooker absorbs too many clean shots, as seen in fights against Poirier, Felder, and Barboza, and that Allen's point-fighting style will exploit that. He also notes the hometown advantage at the O2 Arena, suggesting close decisions will favor Allen. Levi respects Hooker but sees Allen as the future.

Bet Allen at +105 before line flipped
"I bet arnold allen at plus 105. and now he's the minus 125 favor so no matter what i beat i got the best of the line"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 16, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Dan Hooker

Hooker's volume and footwork should outwork Allen, who lacks knockout power (last KO in 2014). Hooker has good takedown defense and can use the big cage to his advantage with a stick-and-move style. Allen's grappling isn't dominant enough to control Hooker. The weight cut to 145 is a concern, but Hooker had a good test cut. I already bet Hooker at -110 and expect a decision win.

Hooker via decision
"I like Dan Hooker here a decent amount I already took a bet on him at around -110."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 16, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Dan Hooker

Paul picks Hooker, arguing that Allen's winning streak is overrated due to flash knockdowns and low striking output. He believes Hooker's volume and pace will overwhelm Allen, and that Allen's wrestling won't be effective. He also notes Hooker's improved wrestling from the Makhachev fight.

"i like hooker i like his pace i think he's gonna put it on him"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Arnold Allen

The Guru picks Arnold Allen, surprised he's not a favorite. He believes Dan Hooker's move down to featherweight is risky, citing Hooker's poor head movement and the tough weight cut. He notes Allen's improving skills and power, despite no KOs on record, and predicts a first-round KO. He mentions Hooker's recent domination by Islam Makhachev and questions his motivation.

first round KO
"i'm going with arnold allen getting a first round ko... dan hooker doesn't move his head too well"
LOSS vs Islam Makhachev
Submission (kimura) R1 2:25 · UFC 267: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira · Oct 30, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Islam Makhachev 0 2 of 3 66% 13 of 14 1 of 1 100% 2 0 1:48
Dan Hooker 0 4 of 13 30% 19 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Islam Makhachev 0 2 of 3 66% 13 of 14 1 of 1 100% 2 0 1:48
Dan Hooker 0 4 of 13 30% 19 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Islam Makhachev 2 of 3 66% 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dan Hooker 4 of 13 30% 1 of 10 0 of 0 3 of 3 4 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Islam Makhachev 2 of 3 66% 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dan Hooker 4 of 13 30% 1 of 10 0 of 0 3 of 3 4 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 26, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Big Brady picks Islam Makhachev to win by dominant decision. He believes Makhachev's wrestling will be relentless and he will control Hooker on the ground. Hooker has good takedown defense on paper but hasn't faced a wrestler of Makhachev's caliber. Hooker has never been submitted, so a decision is likely. He respects Hooker for stepping in but thinks it's a tough matchup.

Makhachev by decision
"I'll say uh makachev does uh get it done by a pretty convincing dominant decision here."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 27, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Cody agrees with Islam by decision, citing Hooker's durability and chin. He notes Hooker has only been knocked out twice (by Barboza body kick and Chandler) and has good submission defense. He thinks Islam's grappling will control the fight but Hooker will survive to a decision.

Islam by decision
"i agree with democracy call uh i go back to hooker's nep he's only been knocked out one time"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 28, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Daniel picks Islam Makhachev, citing his dominant wrestling and submission skills, including making Tiago Moises tap. He notes Hooker's durability and striking but believes Islam's grappling will be the difference. Daniel is curious to see if Islam tests his striking but expects a dominant performance. He mentions the line is too high to bet.

comments on line being too high to bet
"i mean look if it's a pick um fight you got to go with islam but i ain't laying no minus 700"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 28, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Makhachev's wrestling and pressure will be overwhelming for Hooker, who took the fight on short notice. Hooker's only chance is a KO, but Makhachev's striking has improved and he will likely take Hooker down repeatedly. Makhachev wins a decision or possibly a late finish.

Makhachev by decision -105, Hooker inside distance +675, Hooker by KO +850.
"I'm going to go with islam and i'm going to take him to win this fight via decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 27, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Paul picks Islam Makhachev by decision, noting Hooker's durability and that Hooker has never been submitted. He thinks Islam's suffocating top control and methodical approach will lead to a decision win. He mentions the over 2.5 rounds is -160 and he likes that as well.

Over 2.5 rounds (-160), Islam by decision
"maka jeff by decision is my official pick"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 24, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

The MMA Guru picks Islam Makhachev over Dan Hooker. He thinks Makhachev's grappling is superior and that Hooker's camp is not ideal. He predicts Hooker may win the first round with his length and clinch work, but Makhachev will take over in rounds two and three with takedowns and positional dominance. He expects a 29-28 unanimous decision for Makhachev, possibly a boring fight. He also notes that even with a perfect camp, Hooker would likely lose.

"i'm going with islam makashev here"
Expert Picks (6)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 26, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Big Brady picks Islam Makhachev to win by dominant decision. He believes Makhachev's wrestling will be relentless and he will control Hooker on the ground. Hooker has good takedown defense on paper but hasn't faced a wrestler of Makhachev's caliber. Hooker has never been submitted, so a decision is likely. He respects Hooker for stepping in but thinks it's a tough matchup.

Makhachev by decision
"I'll say uh makachev does uh get it done by a pretty convincing dominant decision here."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 27, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Cody agrees with Islam by decision, citing Hooker's durability and chin. He notes Hooker has only been knocked out twice (by Barboza body kick and Chandler) and has good submission defense. He thinks Islam's grappling will control the fight but Hooker will survive to a decision.

Islam by decision
"i agree with democracy call uh i go back to hooker's nep he's only been knocked out one time"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 28, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Daniel picks Islam Makhachev, citing his dominant wrestling and submission skills, including making Tiago Moises tap. He notes Hooker's durability and striking but believes Islam's grappling will be the difference. Daniel is curious to see if Islam tests his striking but expects a dominant performance. He mentions the line is too high to bet.

comments on line being too high to bet
"i mean look if it's a pick um fight you got to go with islam but i ain't laying no minus 700"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 28, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Makhachev's wrestling and pressure will be overwhelming for Hooker, who took the fight on short notice. Hooker's only chance is a KO, but Makhachev's striking has improved and he will likely take Hooker down repeatedly. Makhachev wins a decision or possibly a late finish.

Makhachev by decision -105, Hooker inside distance +675, Hooker by KO +850.
"I'm going to go with islam and i'm going to take him to win this fight via decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 27, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Paul picks Islam Makhachev by decision, noting Hooker's durability and that Hooker has never been submitted. He thinks Islam's suffocating top control and methodical approach will lead to a decision win. He mentions the over 2.5 rounds is -160 and he likes that as well.

Over 2.5 rounds (-160), Islam by decision
"maka jeff by decision is my official pick"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 24, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

The MMA Guru picks Islam Makhachev over Dan Hooker. He thinks Makhachev's grappling is superior and that Hooker's camp is not ideal. He predicts Hooker may win the first round with his length and clinch work, but Makhachev will take over in rounds two and three with takedowns and positional dominance. He expects a 29-28 unanimous decision for Makhachev, possibly a boring fight. He also notes that even with a perfect camp, Hooker would likely lose.

"i'm going with islam makashev here"