UFC Fight Night: Błachowicz vs. Santos · Feb 23, 2019 · Light Heavyweight · Completed
UFC Fight Night: Błachowicz vs. Santos Next Fight
Age 42
Height 6' 2"
Reach 76.0"
Weight 205 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 43
Height 6' 2"
Reach 78"
Weight 205 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Thiago Santos
3.72 SLpM
48.0% Str. Acc.
2.57 SApM
53.0% Str. Def.
0.88 TD Avg
33.0% TD Acc.
65.0% TD Def.
0.1 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Jan Błachowicz
3.55 SLpM
50.0% Str. Acc.
3.14 SApM
52.0% Str. Def.
0.98 TD Avg
48.0% TD Acc.
69.0% TD Def.
0.4 Sub. Avg
Thiago Santos - Fight History
LOSS vs Jamahal Hill
TKO (punches and elbows) R4 2:31 · UFC on ESPN: Santos vs. Hill · Aug 06, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jamahal Hill 0 53 of 94 56% 56 of 98 6 of 20 30% 0 0 5:54
Thiago Santos 0 89 of 152 58% 130 of 194 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:26
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jamahal Hill 0 10 of 18 55% 11 of 19 0 of 4 0% 0 0 1:23
Thiago Santos 0 9 of 30 30% 18 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jamahal Hill 0 16 of 38 42% 16 of 38 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:41
Thiago Santos 0 31 of 52 59% 35 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:22
3 Jamahal Hill 0 8 of 11 72% 10 of 14 5 of 11 45% 0 0 3:50
Thiago Santos 0 9 of 11 81% 23 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:33
4 Jamahal Hill 0 19 of 27 70% 19 of 27 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Thiago Santos 0 40 of 59 67% 54 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:31
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jamahal Hill 53 of 94 56% 28 of 66 13 of 16 12 of 12 43 of 82 8 of 9 2 of 3
Thiago Santos 89 of 152 58% 68 of 131 12 of 12 9 of 9 52 of 107 19 of 21 18 of 24
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jamahal Hill 10 of 18 55% 1 of 8 3 of 4 6 of 6 9 of 17 1 of 1 0 of 0
Thiago Santos 9 of 30 30% 5 of 26 4 of 4 0 of 0 5 of 26 4 of 4 0 of 0
2 Jamahal Hill 16 of 38 42% 9 of 29 5 of 7 2 of 2 14 of 35 2 of 2 0 of 1
Thiago Santos 31 of 52 59% 19 of 40 5 of 5 7 of 7 28 of 48 3 of 4 0 of 0
3 Jamahal Hill 8 of 11 72% 6 of 9 1 of 1 1 of 1 3 of 6 3 of 3 2 of 2
Thiago Santos 9 of 11 81% 5 of 7 3 of 3 1 of 1 2 of 4 7 of 7 0 of 0
4 Jamahal Hill 19 of 27 70% 12 of 20 4 of 4 3 of 3 17 of 24 2 of 3 0 of 0
Thiago Santos 40 of 59 67% 39 of 58 0 of 0 1 of 1 17 of 29 5 of 6 18 of 24
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 31, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

Angelo picks Jamahal Hill, citing Thiago Santos's decline in power and speed since his injuries. He notes Hill's excellent striking differential and accuracy, and believes he can outpoint Santos. However, he acknowledges Santos's durability and championship-round experience, leaving some uncertainty if the fight goes deep. He cannot bet on 'survive logic' and sticks with Hill.

"given what tiago santos has become we got to go with jamal hill here right"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 2, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

Big Brady picks Jamahal Hill, noting his high volume and power compared to Thiago Santos, who has been low-volume and inactive in his recent fights. He acknowledges Santos's power and the fact that Hill is hittable, but believes Hill's pressure and output will overwhelm Santos. He predicts a second or third-round knockout win for Hill, expressing hope that Hill makes it exciting after Santos's recent boring performances.

second or third round knockout prediction
"i like jamal hill i'd like to help you win by knockout i'll say like second or third round knockout here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 3, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

Cody also picks Hill, citing Santos's decline since the Jones fight and his knee injuries. He notes that Santos has become a shell of himself, with low output and a tendency to wait for counters. Cody believes Hill's length, southpaw stance, and left hand will be key, and that Hill can carry his power into later rounds. He predicts a late stoppage or decision for Hill.

Hill over 30.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks; Hill by late stoppage (rounds 4-5) or decision
"I got Hill as well... I'm just not on team Thiago Santos... he's a lot older... since he's come back has just been less than kind."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 3, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

Daniel Levi picks Jamahal Hill, citing his superior output (nearly double Santos's), power, and heart. He notes Hill's ability to fight in the pocket and force Santos to engage, while Santos has declined since knee surgeries and lacks the output to keep up. Levi is concerned about Santos's power and opportunistic hooks but believes Hill's durability and pace will prevail. He parlayed Hill with Oleksiejczuk to win 2 units.

Parlayed with Michał Oleksiejczuk at -158 to win 2 units
"I gotta go with Jamal Hill here so I took Jamal Hill minus 260 and I parlayed him with... Mija Oleg Zach"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 3, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

Paul picks Jamahal Hill, noting that Hill is too fast for Thiago Santos. He points out that Santos has been in a decline since his fight with Jon Jones, with knee injuries and poor performances. Paul is concerned about the -315 price but still sees Hill as the rightful favorite. He mentions that Hill's speed and power should be enough to win, possibly by late stoppage or decision.

Hill over 30.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks; Hill by decision or late stoppage (rounds 4-5)
"I think Jamahal Hill is a little bit too fast for Thiago Santos... Hill will be the pick don't know if I'm gonna get there from a betting perspective."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 1, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

The MMA Guru picks Jamahal Hill by second-round TKO. He notes Santos's age (38) and lack of leg kicks since injury. He believes Hill's rangy punching and pressure will be effective, and compares to David Branch's KO of Santos. He expects Hill to land a one-two against the cage after a competitive first round.

second round tko
"i'm gonna go jamal hill... i'm gonna see jamal hill pressuring him down walking him down landing some good combos and then maybe just like landing a good straight one two right on thiago santos against the cage at the …"
Decision (unanimous) (49–46, 49–46, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ankalaev · Mar 12, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Magomed Ankalaev 1 60 of 138 43% 81 of 160 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:17
Thiago Santos 0 78 of 155 50% 114 of 191 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:35
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Magomed Ankalaev 0 10 of 21 47% 10 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Thiago Santos 0 8 of 23 34% 8 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Magomed Ankalaev 1 15 of 36 41% 18 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:17
Thiago Santos 0 15 of 32 46% 15 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Magomed Ankalaev 0 18 of 30 60% 18 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Thiago Santos 0 19 of 31 61% 19 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Magomed Ankalaev 0 10 of 32 31% 16 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Thiago Santos 0 21 of 48 43% 36 of 63 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:56
5 Magomed Ankalaev 0 7 of 19 36% 19 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Thiago Santos 0 15 of 21 71% 36 of 42 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:39
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Magomed Ankalaev 60 of 138 43% 14 of 75 16 of 26 30 of 37 57 of 135 1 of 1 2 of 2
Thiago Santos 78 of 155 50% 33 of 94 35 of 51 10 of 10 64 of 140 12 of 13 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Magomed Ankalaev 10 of 21 47% 0 of 6 3 of 6 7 of 9 10 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0
Thiago Santos 8 of 23 34% 3 of 13 4 of 9 1 of 1 8 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Magomed Ankalaev 15 of 36 41% 7 of 22 3 of 6 5 of 8 13 of 34 0 of 0 2 of 2
Thiago Santos 15 of 32 46% 6 of 18 6 of 11 3 of 3 14 of 31 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Magomed Ankalaev 18 of 30 60% 2 of 13 4 of 4 12 of 13 18 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
Thiago Santos 19 of 31 61% 7 of 17 7 of 9 5 of 5 18 of 30 1 of 1 0 of 0
4 Magomed Ankalaev 10 of 32 31% 4 of 23 4 of 7 2 of 2 10 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 0
Thiago Santos 21 of 48 43% 13 of 38 8 of 10 0 of 0 18 of 45 1 of 1 2 of 2
5 Magomed Ankalaev 7 of 19 36% 1 of 11 2 of 3 4 of 5 6 of 18 1 of 1 0 of 0
Thiago Santos 15 of 21 71% 4 of 8 10 of 12 1 of 1 6 of 11 9 of 10 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Angelo picks Magomed Ankalaev, noting that Thiago Santos has slowed down at 38 and is not the same fighter who knocked out Jan Blachowicz. He believes Ankalaev's forward pressure, heavy kicks, and constant takedown threats will be too much. He expects a one-sided win, though not necessarily a stoppage.

"i have ankalive winning i think he does it with forward pressure heavy kicks that manage range and just constant takedown threats"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Big Brady picks Magomed Ankalaev to win by decision. He notes Santos is 38, looks washed, has low volume (44 strikes in 25 minutes vs Walker), and has never recovered from his knee injuries after the Jones fight. He thinks Ankalaev is well-rounded, has power, and will outpoint Santos easily over five rounds. He expects the fight to be somewhat uneventful but Ankalaev will dominate. He mentions the line has moved from -330 to -500.

"i'm gonna say inca live wins this one actually by decision i'm gonna say he just kind of you know out points santos pretty cleanly easily"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Cody is confident in Ankalaev, citing his pace, cardio, chin, and improved striking. He notes Santos is 38, has declined since knee surgery, and lacks volume. Cody sees Ankalaev as the best at 205 and expects him to win via pressure and volume, possibly a late stoppage. He mentions a parlay with Murzakanov at -106.

Parlay with Murzakanov at -106
"i think ankle alive is the best guy at 205 pounds"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Mar 11, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Daniel Levi picks Magomed Ankalaev to win, citing Ankalaev's upward trajectory and the emergence of a new era of light heavyweights. He notes that Thiago Santos has had lackluster performances since the Jon Jones fight, with his knees falling apart. Levi expects a chess match early but sees Ankalaev landing a big counter or takedown with ground and pound. He acknowledges Santos's power but believes Ankalaev's counters are sharp and that he will eventually get a title shot.

"i think mago med and cleave is trending upwards i think that he will get a title shot at some point and i think that the new era of light heavyweights are emerging"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Ankalaev is seen as the uncrowned champ, with a seven-fight win streak and granite chin. He's a technical striker with high striking defense, and his ability to adjust mid-fight is praised. Santos is past his prime at 38, with ACL surgery and tentative performances. Ankalaev is expected to win via decision, possibly a one-sided chess match.

Decision prop for Ankalaev is suggested as a good play; round 4 or 5 decision if available.
"I think he is probably the best light heavyweight on planet Earth right now, and I think it's just a matter of time before he captures that gold."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Paul echoes Cody's view, emphasizing Santos' decline and Ankalaev's advantages in speed, volume, and wrestling. He notes the price is high but believes Ankalaev is the best in the division. He also mentions a parlay with Murzakanov.

Parlay with Murzakanov
"i think ankle alive is the best guy at 205 pounds"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

The MMA Guru picks Magomed Ankalaev over Thiago Santos, citing Santos' hesitancy and lack of ligaments in his leg. He believes Ankalaev will chop at the legs early, mix in takedowns, and expose Santos' poor ground game as Glover Teixeira did. He expects a late second-round ground-and-pound TKO, noting that Ankalaev's patient counter-striking style works well against Santos. He admits Santos is a decent underdog but says the odds won't sway him, as Ankalaev wins this fight seven or eight times out of ten.

ground and pound TKO in round 2
"i'm going to trust magman angliev very patient on the fee doesn't rush his work likes to play the counter game as well which i think works against thiago santos"
WIN vs Johnny Walker
Decision (unanimous) (48–47, 48–47, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Walker · Oct 02, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Thiago Santos 0 44 of 105 41% 44 of 105 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Johnny Walker 0 48 of 130 36% 48 of 130 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Thiago Santos 0 3 of 13 23% 3 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Johnny Walker 0 9 of 15 60% 9 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Thiago Santos 0 11 of 22 50% 11 of 22 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Johnny Walker 0 10 of 20 50% 10 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Thiago Santos 0 11 of 25 44% 11 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Johnny Walker 0 10 of 25 40% 10 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Thiago Santos 0 9 of 22 40% 9 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Johnny Walker 0 11 of 41 26% 11 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Thiago Santos 0 10 of 23 43% 10 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Johnny Walker 0 8 of 29 27% 8 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Thiago Santos 44 of 105 41% 9 of 40 16 of 28 19 of 37 42 of 103 2 of 2 0 of 0
Johnny Walker 48 of 130 36% 7 of 55 9 of 20 32 of 55 46 of 127 2 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Thiago Santos 3 of 13 23% 0 of 6 1 of 4 2 of 3 3 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Johnny Walker 9 of 15 60% 0 of 2 1 of 3 8 of 10 9 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Thiago Santos 11 of 22 50% 2 of 5 6 of 8 3 of 9 9 of 20 2 of 2 0 of 0
Johnny Walker 10 of 20 50% 2 of 6 2 of 3 6 of 11 8 of 17 2 of 3 0 of 0
3 Thiago Santos 11 of 25 44% 2 of 10 1 of 4 8 of 11 11 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
Johnny Walker 10 of 25 40% 2 of 10 2 of 6 6 of 9 10 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Thiago Santos 9 of 22 40% 2 of 9 4 of 6 3 of 7 9 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
Johnny Walker 11 of 41 26% 1 of 22 2 of 3 8 of 16 11 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Thiago Santos 10 of 23 43% 3 of 10 4 of 6 3 of 7 10 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 0
Johnny Walker 8 of 29 27% 2 of 15 2 of 5 4 of 9 8 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 29, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Johnny Walker

Angelo picks Johnny Walker, expecting his forward pressure, craziness, and size to frustrate Thiago Santos, who is a shell of his former self after knee injuries and three straight losses. He notes that Santos has massive power and could knock anyone out, but his cardio suffers and he may be gun-shy. Walker is never afraid to throw and will stay busy. Angelo likes Walker at plus 145 moneyline and in DraftKings at $7,400. He also likes the over on rounds and the more more monkey knife fight pick.

moneyline bet at +145, over on rounds, more more monkey knife fight
"johnny walker is the pick johnny walker will be in my my draftkings lineup i will probably have a money line bet on him"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 30, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Thiago Santos

Big Brady picks Thiago Santos to win, citing his experience, better competition, and more paths to victory. He notes Santos has fought Jon Jones, Glover Teixeira, and Rakic, while Walker's best wins are over lesser competition. Walker is very hittable (31% striking defense) and chinny, while Santos hits hard. Santos has better cardio, having gone five rounds with Jones, while Walker fades after the first round. Brady suggests a ground game path for Santos, similar to his win over Kevin Holland. He recommends a violence play rather than the moneyline.

fight ends inside distance (violence play)
"i'm gonna go santos here i'm gonna go with more experience fighter better competition a better gas tank"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 29, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Thiago Santos

Cody picks Thiago Santos based on superior experience and durability. He notes that Santos has slowed down and his knees are shot, but he still hits hard and can drag the fight into later rounds. He expects Santos to survive Walker's early explosiveness and then pressure him, eventually landing a finish in the second, third, or fourth round. He highlights that Santos outstruck Alexander Rakic in their fight and has better cardio than Walker, who has never gone five rounds.

"the official pick will be thiago santos based on the superior experience and durability"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Oct 1, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Johnny Walker

Daniel Levi picks Johnny Walker as the underdog, citing that both fighters have declined since their surgeries—Santos after ACL surgery and Walker after shoulder injury. He notes Walker's dynamic striking and finishing ability but acknowledges his poor durability and tendency to flop when hit. Levi believes the fight is a coin flip about who lands first, but he leans Walker because of motivation concerns for the nearly 40-year-old Santos with a baby on the way. He expects a knockout either way and takes the underdog.

fight doesn't go to decision; knockout likely
"give me the underdog give me johnny walker to knock out thiago santos but don't quote me on it cause i mean it's one of these things where either guy can hit the deck"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Thiago Santos

I think Santos is the more disciplined striker and should be able to counter Walker's wildness. Walker is explosive but hittable and has poor durability. However, I'm concerned about Santos's recent performances and knee surgeries. I like Santos inside the distance at -120 and also like the under 1.5 rounds. I'm picking Santos but not with high confidence.

Santos inside the distance -120, under 1.5 rounds even money
"I kind of like santo's itd minus 120"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Sep 29, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Thiago Santos

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Santos but with less confidence. He notes that Walker is dangerous early but has never gone five rounds and his cardio is suspect. He believes Santos's chin holds up better at 205 and that Walker's grappling is not a major concern. He does not have a bet on Santos straight up but suggests looking at live betting after the first round if Santos survives.

Live betting after round one if Santos survives
"santos for me as well"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 27, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Thiago Santos

The MMA Guru picks Thiago Santos, despite rooting for Johnny Walker. He notes Santos' check hook is his best weapon and Walker leaves himself open when rushing in. Walker has been KO'd in most of his losses by rushing in. Santos has five-round experience and still has power. He predicts Santos will catch Walker with a check hook and finish him by KO.

Santos by KO
"i'm gonna go with thiago santos catching johnny walker rushing in with a check hook putting him down finishing him off"
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya · Mar 06, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Aleksandar Rakić 0 49 of 97 50% 61 of 109 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Thiago Santos 0 36 of 89 40% 50 of 103 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:32
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Aleksandar Rakić 0 15 of 27 55% 15 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Thiago Santos 0 14 of 30 46% 14 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Aleksandar Rakić 0 11 of 31 35% 18 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Thiago Santos 0 15 of 35 42% 24 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:11
3 Aleksandar Rakić 0 23 of 39 58% 28 of 44 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Thiago Santos 0 7 of 24 29% 12 of 29 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:21
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Aleksandar Rakić 49 of 97 50% 10 of 41 23 of 33 16 of 23 35 of 82 14 of 15 0 of 0
Thiago Santos 36 of 89 40% 8 of 47 13 of 16 15 of 26 29 of 82 7 of 7 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Aleksandar Rakić 15 of 27 55% 1 of 8 8 of 11 6 of 8 15 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
Thiago Santos 14 of 30 46% 3 of 16 3 of 4 8 of 10 14 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Aleksandar Rakić 11 of 31 35% 3 of 16 6 of 10 2 of 5 5 of 25 6 of 6 0 of 0
Thiago Santos 15 of 35 42% 3 of 17 8 of 9 4 of 9 8 of 28 7 of 7 0 of 0
3 Aleksandar Rakić 23 of 39 58% 6 of 17 9 of 12 8 of 10 15 of 30 8 of 9 0 of 0
Thiago Santos 7 of 24 29% 2 of 14 2 of 3 3 of 7 7 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Mar 3, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Aleksandar Rakić

Big Brady picks Aleksandar Rakić, favoring him on the feet and heavily on the ground. He notes Rakić has been dropped before (by Devin Clark) and is hittable, while Santos has one-shot power. He recommends a ground game plan and predicts a TKO ground-and-pound finish in the second round, but passes on betting.

"i'm going to take rakash to win i'm going to say he wins by a tikiyo ground and pound finish in the second round"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Aleksandar Rakić

Daniel picks Aleksandar Rakić to win, citing his well-rounded game, wrestling, and smart game planning. He notes Santos' submission defense issues and believes Rakić can mix in takedowns and possibly finish on the mat or win a decision.

"i'm gonna go with rockets here uh to edge this one out man"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 4, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Aleksandar Rakić

Rakić is younger, stronger, and has a wrestling advantage. Santos is 37 with knee injuries and poor jiu-jitsu off his back. The host expects Rakić to use his kicks and takedowns to control the fight and win by decision.

"i'm going to take rockets to when this fight via decision"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 26, 2021 (8 days before fight)
Aleksandar Rakić

The MMA Guru picks Aleksandar Rakić over Thiago Santos. He highlights Rakić's dangerous leg kicks and improved grappling, and notes Santos has no ligaments in his legs. He believes Rakić will chop at Santos's legs, inhibit his movement, and win by 30-27 unanimous decision, possibly mixing in takedowns.

"i'm gonna go with alexander wreckage i like thiago santos you've got no ligaments in your legs and wreckage has the best leg kicks i've ever seen"
LOSS vs Glover Teixeira
Submission (rear-naked choke) R3 1:49 · UFC on ESPN: Santos vs. Teixeira · Nov 07, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Glover Teixeira 1 40 of 64 62% 81 of 109 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:18
Thiago Santos 0 46 of 63 73% 148 of 180 4 of 7 57% 2 0 9:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Glover Teixeira 0 15 of 24 62% 40 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Thiago Santos 0 20 of 27 74% 77 of 87 2 of 4 50% 0 0 4:02
2 Glover Teixeira 0 3 of 7 42% 9 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Thiago Santos 0 22 of 31 70% 58 of 78 1 of 1 100% 1 0 4:39
3 Glover Teixeira 1 22 of 33 66% 32 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:14
Thiago Santos 0 4 of 5 80% 13 of 15 1 of 2 50% 1 0 0:22
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Glover Teixeira 40 of 64 62% 38 of 58 0 of 4 2 of 2 11 of 24 0 of 0 29 of 40
Thiago Santos 46 of 63 73% 46 of 63 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 0 44 of 58
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Glover Teixeira 15 of 24 62% 15 of 23 0 of 1 0 of 0 8 of 16 0 of 0 7 of 8
Thiago Santos 20 of 27 74% 20 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 0 19 of 24
2 Glover Teixeira 3 of 7 42% 1 of 3 0 of 2 2 of 2 2 of 6 0 of 0 1 of 1
Thiago Santos 22 of 31 70% 22 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 21 of 30
3 Glover Teixeira 22 of 33 66% 22 of 32 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 21 of 31
Thiago Santos 4 of 5 80% 4 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 4
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 3, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Glover Teixeira

Big Brady picks Teixeira as an underdog, citing Santos' injury layoff and questionable losses. He thinks Teixeira has more paths to victory, including takedowns and submissions. He notes Teixeira's recent form and improved conditioning.

submission
"I'm going to take the underdog plus 200 I don't really agree with that I think there's too many question marks I'm going to take glover to shara"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Nov 6, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Glover Teixeira

Daniel Levi leans toward Glover Teixeira as a betting pick, despite acknowledging Thiago Santos should be the favorite. He believes Teixeira's ground game is a huge edge; if he gets Santos down, the fight is likely over via submission. Levi notes that Santos is explosive and powerful on the feet, and Teixeira has been wobbled before, but he thinks Teixeira can take him down and submit him. He calls it a 'dog or pass' situation and picks Teixeira at plus money.

submission; plus 200 underdog
"when i'm having this much trouble picking you gotta lean with the plus 200 dog so i'm gonna lean with glover to i'm gonna lean with thiago in terms of like he should be the favorite but as far as …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 2, 2020 (5 days before fight)
Glover Teixeira

The host is very confident in Glover Teixeira at plus money, citing Thiago Santos coming off a severe ACL injury and a 16-month layoff. He believes Glover's durability, top pressure, and jiu-jitsu will be too much, especially in a five-round fight where Glover can drown Santos. He notes that Santos is not a one-punch knockout artist and that Glover has only been finished once in 3.5 years. He plans to wait for a better line, expecting it to reach +200.

He loves Glover by submission, likely second or third round. He mentions waiting for the submission prop. He also notes the public is 72% on Santos, which he sees as value on Glover.
"I love love love glover to share at this price... I'm taking at least a two unit shot here i'm glad to share it"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 1, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Thiago Santos

The MMA Guru picks Thiago Santos to win by first-round TKO. He believes Santos is too dangerous in the first round and Teixeira has a habit of getting cracked early. He notes Santos's power and cardio, and that Teixeira cannot afford to take the same shots he took against lesser opponents.

first round TKO
"santos by first round tko win"
LOSS vs Jon Jones
Decision (split) (48–47, 48–47, 47–48) R5 5:00 · UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos · Jul 06, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jon Jones 0 59 of 90 65% 59 of 90 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Thiago Santos 0 43 of 166 25% 43 of 166 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jon Jones 0 7 of 16 43% 7 of 16 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Thiago Santos 0 11 of 26 42% 11 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jon Jones 0 11 of 17 64% 11 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Thiago Santos 0 7 of 42 16% 7 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Jon Jones 0 14 of 19 73% 14 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Thiago Santos 0 6 of 33 18% 6 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Jon Jones 0 11 of 17 64% 11 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Thiago Santos 0 8 of 28 28% 8 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Jon Jones 0 16 of 21 76% 16 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Thiago Santos 0 11 of 37 29% 11 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jon Jones 59 of 90 65% 11 of 32 16 of 19 32 of 39 55 of 84 4 of 6 0 of 0
Thiago Santos 43 of 166 25% 9 of 92 7 of 21 27 of 53 42 of 159 1 of 7 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jon Jones 7 of 16 43% 0 of 4 3 of 5 4 of 7 7 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
Thiago Santos 11 of 26 42% 3 of 12 1 of 1 7 of 13 11 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Jon Jones 11 of 17 64% 2 of 7 4 of 4 5 of 6 10 of 15 1 of 2 0 of 0
Thiago Santos 7 of 42 16% 1 of 25 2 of 6 4 of 11 6 of 38 1 of 4 0 of 0
3 Jon Jones 14 of 19 73% 4 of 7 4 of 4 6 of 8 11 of 15 3 of 4 0 of 0
Thiago Santos 6 of 33 18% 1 of 17 1 of 6 4 of 10 6 of 30 0 of 3 0 of 0
4 Jon Jones 11 of 17 64% 2 of 7 2 of 3 7 of 7 11 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
Thiago Santos 8 of 28 28% 0 of 13 1 of 5 7 of 10 8 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Jon Jones 16 of 21 76% 3 of 7 3 of 3 10 of 11 16 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0
Thiago Santos 11 of 37 29% 4 of 25 2 of 3 5 of 9 11 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0
TKO (punches) R3 0:39 · UFC Fight Night: Błachowicz vs. Santos · Feb 23, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Thiago Santos 0 20 of 53 37% 20 of 53 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:05
Jan Błachowicz 1 52 of 104 50% 52 of 104 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:08
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Thiago Santos 0 7 of 27 25% 7 of 27 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:05
Jan Błachowicz 0 22 of 44 50% 22 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Thiago Santos 0 12 of 23 52% 12 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jan Błachowicz 0 13 of 34 38% 13 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Thiago Santos 0 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jan Błachowicz 1 17 of 26 65% 17 of 26 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:08
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Thiago Santos 20 of 53 37% 7 of 31 6 of 12 7 of 10 19 of 51 1 of 2 0 of 0
Jan Błachowicz 52 of 104 50% 21 of 58 5 of 10 26 of 36 38 of 82 1 of 1 13 of 21
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Thiago Santos 7 of 27 25% 3 of 16 2 of 7 2 of 4 6 of 25 1 of 2 0 of 0
Jan Błachowicz 22 of 44 50% 4 of 19 4 of 7 14 of 18 21 of 43 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Thiago Santos 12 of 23 52% 3 of 12 4 of 5 5 of 6 12 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jan Błachowicz 13 of 34 38% 2 of 16 1 of 3 10 of 15 13 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Thiago Santos 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jan Błachowicz 17 of 26 65% 15 of 23 0 of 0 2 of 3 4 of 5 0 of 0 13 of 21
WIN vs Jimi Manuwa
KO (punch) R2 0:41 · UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega · Dec 08, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Thiago Santos 0 27 of 42 64% 30 of 45 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:25
Jimi Manuwa 2 42 of 74 56% 65 of 97 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:19
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Thiago Santos 0 26 of 36 72% 29 of 39 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:23
Jimi Manuwa 1 33 of 55 60% 55 of 77 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:16
2 Thiago Santos 0 1 of 6 16% 1 of 6 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Jimi Manuwa 1 9 of 19 47% 10 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Thiago Santos 27 of 42 64% 15 of 30 12 of 12 0 of 0 8 of 20 17 of 19 2 of 3
Jimi Manuwa 42 of 74 56% 27 of 58 13 of 14 2 of 2 20 of 45 22 of 28 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Thiago Santos 26 of 36 72% 15 of 25 11 of 11 0 of 0 7 of 15 17 of 18 2 of 3
Jimi Manuwa 33 of 55 60% 20 of 41 11 of 12 2 of 2 15 of 32 18 of 22 0 of 1
2 Thiago Santos 1 of 6 16% 0 of 5 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 5 0 of 1 0 of 0
Jimi Manuwa 9 of 19 47% 7 of 17 2 of 2 0 of 0 5 of 13 4 of 6 0 of 0
Jan Błachowicz - Fight History
Draw vs Bogdan Guskov
Draw R3 5:00 · UFC 323 · Dec 06, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jan Błachowicz 1 84 of 149 56% 100 of 173 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:08
Bogdan Guskov 1 80 of 140 57% 98 of 160 0 of 0 --- 0 0 4:09
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jan Błachowicz 0 25 of 52 48% 25 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Bogdan Guskov 0 21 of 44 47% 21 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jan Błachowicz 0 11 of 13 84% 25 of 35 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Bogdan Guskov 1 32 of 51 62% 50 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 4:09
3 Jan Błachowicz 1 48 of 84 57% 50 of 86 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Bogdan Guskov 0 27 of 45 60% 27 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jan Błachowicz 84 of 149 56% 56 of 112 11 of 17 17 of 20 74 of 135 2 of 3 8 of 11
Bogdan Guskov 80 of 140 57% 69 of 127 2 of 3 9 of 10 52 of 96 0 of 0 28 of 44
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jan Błachowicz 25 of 52 48% 13 of 35 3 of 6 9 of 11 25 of 52 0 of 0 0 of 0
Bogdan Guskov 21 of 44 47% 10 of 32 2 of 3 9 of 9 21 of 44 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Jan Błachowicz 11 of 13 84% 7 of 9 1 of 1 3 of 3 11 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Bogdan Guskov 32 of 51 62% 32 of 51 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 7 0 of 0 28 of 44
3 Jan Błachowicz 48 of 84 57% 36 of 68 7 of 10 5 of 6 38 of 70 2 of 3 8 of 11
Bogdan Guskov 27 of 45 60% 27 of 44 0 of 0 0 of 1 27 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Jan Błachowicz

Angelo picks Jan Błachowicz, noting his experience, Polish power, and solid wrestling. He argues that Jan's recent losses are to elite competition and that he arguably won some of them. He compares the two as similar fighters but gives Jan the edge due to his chin holding up at 42. However, he advises against betting on Jan at -145 due to the risk of Guskov's power.

advises against betting
"I'm going to pick Yan. But to bet on him at minus 145, at 42 years old... would be a poor financial decision."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Nov 26, 2025 (10 days before fight)
Jan Błachowicz

Big Brady picks Jan Błachowicz despite his age (42), citing his superior striking, volume, durability, cardio, and grappling. He pokes holes in Guskov's wins, noting they came against lower-level opponents. He expects Błachowicz to win by decision, but acknowledges age is a concern.

Błachowicz by decision
"I'm still going with the old man. One last ride. I'm going to take Yonhovich to win this fight. I'll say he wins it by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jan Błachowicz

Cody picks Jan, trusting his chin and experience. He notes that Jan has fought and nearly beaten top competition like Pereira and Ulberg. He believes Jan's wrestling and submission threat will be factors, and he likes Jan by submission at plus 765. He thinks Guskov's wins are over lower-level opponents.

Jan by submission +765
"I'm going to lean on the old warhorse um minus 130 Yonhovich for that chin to hold up and him just to kind of you know show goosebump that even though he's old there's still levels to this."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jan Błachowicz

Connor picks Błachowicz, citing his low kicks and jab as effective tools against Guskov's boxing-heavy style. He notes that Guskov was submitted by Volkan Oezdemir, indicating a vulnerability to wrestling, and Błachowicz has strong top control and submissions. Connor acknowledges that Błachowicz has lost speed and the 'Błachowicz blitz,' but believes his range tools and wrestling will be enough. He doesn't want to watch it but wants Jan to win.

Odds: Błachowicz opened -150, now -130; Guskov opened +130, now +110.
"I think you have to pick old Polish power to do it again. I think you do. I don't want to see it, but I want it to happen."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Nov 27, 2025 (9 days before fight)
Bogdan Guskov

Daniel picks Guskov as a dog, acknowledging Jan's technical edge but fearing Jan's age (42) and recent decline. He thinks Guskov's brawling style and power could catch Jan, who may be nearing a drop-off. He notes Jan's calf kicks and takedowns as threats but believes Guskov's youth and momentum make him a live underdog.

"Give me Bogdan and Guskov to come out here as an underdog, get this upset and knock out the man with the legendary Polish power."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 29, 2025 (7 days before fight)
Jan Błachowicz

Lucrative James argues that Jan Błachowicz is superior in every facet of MMA—striking, grappling, cardio, and fight IQ. He notes Jan's recent close fights against top competition (Alex Pereira, Carlos Ulberg) and his high-altitude training camp. He believes Guskov's only path to victory is an early knockout, but Jan's durability and experience should carry him to a decision win.

"I have to pick Yan in this one."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Jan Błachowicz

The host acknowledges Guskov's rise but believes he will struggle against the more experienced Błachowicz. Despite Błachowicz's age and recent struggles, the host expects him to mix up his game, land takedowns, and possibly secure a submission.

submission
"I think he should be able to mix this game up well enough eventually land some takedowns and I think he might even be able to pull off a submission."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jan Błachowicz

Paul agrees, highlighting Jan's durability and high-level experience. He notes that Jan has gone the distance with champions and has a well-rounded game. He believes Guskov's competition is weak and that Jan will outwork him. He also mentions Jan's submission ability.

"Jan is something special, man. He just knows how to keep in."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jan Błachowicz

The Guru picks Jan Błachowicz over Bogdan Guskov, citing Błachowicz's experience and technical edge. He notes Błachowicz nearly beat Alex Pereira and has faced top competition. The Guru predicts a clear decision or late TKO.

"I'm going to go with Yamblohovic getting this one done over Bognam. Decision whim clearcut 3027 or 29-28."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jan Błachowicz

Zane also picks Błachowicz, emphasizing that Guskov's wins have come against a weak run of fighters and that Krylov's chin is gone. He notes that Błachowicz hasn't been finished and has the wrestling to exploit Guskov's takedown defense. Zane believes Guskov's wild boxing style leaves him open to low kicks and takedowns, and Błachowicz's experience and strength will carry him to a decision or submission.

Same odds commentary as Connor.
"We're taking Jan. In part also just because he still hasn't been getting finished at all."
LOSS vs Carlos Ulberg
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · Mar 22, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jan Błachowicz 0 59 of 131 45% 59 of 131 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Carlos Ulberg 0 75 of 157 47% 75 of 157 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:08
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jan Błachowicz 0 18 of 31 58% 18 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Carlos Ulberg 0 15 of 32 46% 15 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jan Błachowicz 0 16 of 33 48% 16 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Carlos Ulberg 0 29 of 60 48% 29 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
3 Jan Błachowicz 0 25 of 67 37% 25 of 67 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Carlos Ulberg 0 31 of 65 47% 31 of 65 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:06
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jan Błachowicz 59 of 131 45% 17 of 67 10 of 26 32 of 38 59 of 131 0 of 0 0 of 0
Carlos Ulberg 75 of 157 47% 19 of 87 6 of 15 50 of 55 74 of 156 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jan Błachowicz 18 of 31 58% 3 of 11 1 of 4 14 of 16 18 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
Carlos Ulberg 15 of 32 46% 2 of 16 1 of 4 12 of 12 15 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Jan Błachowicz 16 of 33 48% 6 of 16 2 of 8 8 of 9 16 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 0
Carlos Ulberg 29 of 60 48% 6 of 30 3 of 7 20 of 23 28 of 59 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Jan Błachowicz 25 of 67 37% 8 of 40 7 of 14 10 of 13 25 of 67 0 of 0 0 of 0
Carlos Ulberg 31 of 65 47% 11 of 41 2 of 4 18 of 20 31 of 65 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 16, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

Angelo picks Carlos Ulberg, citing Jan Błachowicz's age (42) and lack of recent wins over light heavyweights. He notes that Jan's wins are mostly over middleweights and his last win was due to a freak injury. He acknowledges Ulberg didn't look great in his last fight but believes he will be too fast and too young. He mentions a text argument with Jacob about this fight.

"ulberg is going to be the pick and I am pretty confident in that"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 18, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

Brady thinks Blachowicz is old (42), coming off injuries and layoff, and likely not the same fighter. He predicts Ulberg wins by decision. However, he notes the line is silly and if Blachowicz looks healthy without knee sleeves, he might take a small bet on him.

Ulberg by decision
"give me olberg orberg by decision"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Mar 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jan Błachowicz

Connor picks Jan, sticking with the old man despite the risks. He argues Jan has been an unsolvable puzzle for most light heavyweights due to his compact defense, counter-punching, and leg kicks. He hasn't seen Jan decline yet and believes his experience and durability will carry him, though he admits the layoff and age are concerns.

Jan opened at -113, currently +244; Ulberg opened at -100, currently -275. Connor notes the odds and seems to find value in Jan as an underdog.
"I'll keep one for the old man and i'll go with below which here ... I haven't seen him be shot yet."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Mar 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

The host leans with Ulberg's striking advantage, noting Błachowicz is coming back from injury, a long layoff, and is 42 years old. He expects Ulberg to shut down takedowns, touch him up on the feet, and win on the scorecards.

"I have to lean with the striking advantage of Bberg. Not to mention Blhovic coming back from an injury, long layoff and being 42 now."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jan Błachowicz

The Guru confidently picks Jan Błachowicz, despite his age and surgeries, because he believes Błachowicz is a much better striker than Ulberg's previous opponents. He notes that Ulberg struggled against OSP and Devin Clark, while Błachowicz has beaten top competition. He expects Błachowicz to out-strike Ulberg, especially in a three-round fight at sea level, and sees value in Błachowicz as a nearly 3-to-1 underdog.

underdog value (nearly 3-to-1)
"I'm going to go yanovich getting this one done"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Mar 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

Zane picks Ulberg, citing Jan's age (42), long layoff, and shoulder injury as major concerns. He believes Ulberg's speed, jab, and improving striking can overwhelm Jan, especially in a three-round fight. However, he acknowledges Jan's durability, leg kicks, and counter-punching make him dangerous, and Ulberg's inconsistency could cost him.

Jan opened at -113, currently +244; Ulberg opened at -100, currently -275. Zane notes the line movement reflects trepidation about Jan.
"I gotta stick with my kind which is uh ... Tall and possibly handsome young men ... Carlos is better than that."
LOSS vs Alex Pereira
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · Jul 29, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alex Pereira 0 52 of 81 64% 82 of 117 3 of 8 37% 2 0 7:32
Jan Błachowicz 0 70 of 92 76% 112 of 138 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alex Pereira 0 6 of 6 100% 17 of 17 1 of 3 33% 2 0 4:50
Jan Błachowicz 0 2 of 3 66% 12 of 15 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
2 Alex Pereira 0 20 of 29 68% 32 of 43 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:57
Jan Błachowicz 0 33 of 47 70% 54 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
3 Alex Pereira 0 26 of 46 56% 33 of 57 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:45
Jan Błachowicz 0 35 of 42 83% 46 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alex Pereira 52 of 81 64% 41 of 66 4 of 8 7 of 7 41 of 67 3 of 5 8 of 9
Jan Błachowicz 70 of 92 76% 26 of 46 23 of 24 21 of 22 62 of 83 7 of 8 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alex Pereira 6 of 6 100% 6 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 5
Jan Błachowicz 2 of 3 66% 1 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 2 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Alex Pereira 20 of 29 68% 15 of 21 2 of 5 3 of 3 16 of 24 2 of 3 2 of 2
Jan Błachowicz 33 of 47 70% 13 of 25 10 of 11 10 of 11 28 of 41 4 of 5 1 of 1
3 Alex Pereira 26 of 46 56% 20 of 39 2 of 3 4 of 4 24 of 42 1 of 2 1 of 2
Jan Błachowicz 35 of 42 83% 12 of 19 13 of 13 10 of 10 33 of 40 2 of 2 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jan Blachowicz vs. Alex Pereira
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Blachowicz (-125), Pereira (+105)

Round 1
The year is 2023, and for the second time in the last several months, there is no light heavyweight champion in the UFC. Once the glamour division, a litany of injuries and vacated belts left the throne unclaimed. This 205-pound clash will not be for the vacant strap, as some had expected, and instead will take place across three rounds. The victor will be sitting pretty for that next available opening, and former kingpin Blachowicz (29-9-1, 12-6-1 UFC) and ex-middleweight champ Pereira (7-2, 4-1 UFC) are positively salivating at the opportunity that awaits the triumphant man tonight. Referee Marc Goddard is on high alert for the next 15 minutes or less, although it has no bad blood so he can breathe a slight sigh of relief. The hulking light heavyweights bump fists, and they swat at one another with quick punches. Blachowicz ducks down in pursuit of a single, and he lifts Pereira’s leg up but cannot hold him down. Pereira keeps his back to the wall and wraps an arm around the neck, and he cinches his other arm around and fastens the grip to make it excruciatingly tight early. The Polish fighter is not remotely concerned, and he re-adjusts himself to drop down low enough to thwart the choke. Blachowicz leans heavily on his man while he doggedly pursues a single, and he uses heel strikes to the back of Blachowicz’ thigh and calf. Blachowicz imposes his weight on his man, and he manages to drag Pereira to the mat. Blachowicz snakes his legs around the waist to get hold of the body triangle, and he is quick to set up a rear-naked choke. The grip is on the chin and not beneath it, so Blachowicz changes his hands to try to slide it in. Pereira hand-fights to stop the choke, but Blachowicz is still on his back with his body lock tight. Blachowicz tries to keep himself leaned against the fence to stop Pereira from sliding him out the back door, and he lands one single strike before looking to put his right arm around the head. The Brazilian keeps himself out of submission danger, and he lowers himself down to puts himself in a worse position than before. Blachowicz gets the choke again, and he nearly flattens Pereira out. Pereira once more protects his neck, so Blachowicz decides to smack him upside the head with any free hand. Blachowicz keeps the lock tight around the waist, even as he cannot get the choke, and he elects to ride out the round in this dominant position.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz

Round 2
The 205ers do not decide to touch gloves to engage this round, and Blachowicz is in the center of the cage immediately and he backs off to dodge a jab and check a leg kick. Blachowicz jabs the body in response, and Pereira sits down on a low kick. Blachowicz responds in kind, and Pereira gets off a solid body shot. Blachowicz intercepts the kickboxer with a short left hook, and Blachowicz flicks out several jabs. Blachowicz turns his shin to prevent a low kick from getting through, and Pereira marks the body with another straight punch. Blachowicz responds with his own body shot, and they both jab one another. Pereira sweeps the leg with a hard calf kick, and Blachowicz has to take a step to shake it out. Pereira lands another, and Blachowicz steps in with a hard left hook. Blachowicz follows it with a right hand, and Pereira is able to shake it out but overswings and opens himself up. This allows the Polish fighter to secure a double, where he plants Pereira on his back. Blachowicz stays heavy on top and opens up with a few strikes, and “Poatan” responds with a sharp elbow that gets through. Pereira tries to scoot himself to the fence in order to fight his way back to his feet, and he succeeds in getting to a knee and then standing. Pereira sneaks in short knees as Blachowicz continues to press on him, and Blachowicz gives him a stern knee to the solar plexus as he holds on. Pereira suddenly spins out quickly, and he appears the fresher fighter as he tosses out a head kick that Blachowicz barely blocks. Pereira comes at him with a body shot, and Blachowicz responds with a left over the top. Pereira stings Blachowicz with a left hook, and Blachowicz charges with a takedown that fails. Blachowicz backs off when he gets popped with a right, and the two tie up again with 40 seconds remaining. They both get in knees, and Pereira breaks off with two uppercuts and a body shot. Pereira corners his man and starts teeing off on him with short but dangerous shots, and Blachowicz leans back against the fence and is taking damage. Blachowicz responds with one left hook, and he takes a very heavy breath. Pereira lands two right hands, and Blachowicz drops down to shoot in but time expires.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Pereira
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Pereira
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Pereira

Round 3
The body language could scarcely look more different between the two, as Blachowicz is clearly spent while Pereira is psyched up. Both fighters come together to engage in the last round, and Blachowicz lumbers forward kicking low. Blachowicz is just able to avoid a massive uppercut, and the two trade jabs. Pereira batters his foe’s lead calf, which is nastily welted. Blachowicz musters his energy with a pair of punches and a body kick, and Pereira replies with a stern calf kick to the same spot. Pereira jabs the body, and he peppers the lead wheel. Blachowicz blitzes him with a few hooks, and Pereira shrugs at him. Pereira walks down his foe instead of attacking recklessly, and he takes a solid low kick as he come forward. Pereira gives him a jab to think about, and he parries a few punches that come his way. Blachowicz tries to check a kick, and he absorbs a flush right hand to the midsection. Blachowicz huffs and puffs and still reaches his foe with a left over the top, and Pereira beats him to the punch with a few punches right back at him. Blachowicz scores a clean left hand, and he shoots in for a takedown. Pereira stands him up but gets shoved back to the wall, although he is able to stave Blachowicz off. Blachowicz scores a left on the break, and he dings Pereira with another left hand. Blachowicz snaps the head back with a jab, and he charges forward but misses with two strikes. Blachowicz sits down on a leg kick, and the shins crack together. Both men land flush with blows, and Pereira hits the harder of the two and makes Blachowicz nod at him. Blachowicz walks through a left hook and eats a jab to the body, and he races forward swinging hands. Pereira stuffs a takedown, and the Brazilian makes him pay with a few punches. With 45 seconds left in the fight, Blachowicz is able to grab Pereira’s leg and sling him to the mat. When he lands in full guard, Blachowicz sits on top and looks for any energy he has to land strikes. Stacking Pereira up with seconds to spare, Blachowicz drops down hammerfists and concludes the fight on top. This one goes the distance, and it could be an extremely close one depending on how the final round was scored.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz (29-28 Blachowicz)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Pereira (29-28 Pereira)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Pereira (29-28 Pereira)

The Official Result
Alex Pereira def. Jan Blachowicz via Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jul 23, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Alex Pereira

Angelo picks Alex Pereira but with hesitation, acknowledging that Jan's takedowns are a threat. He believes Pereira is the more technical striker with possibly more power, and that he will be fine defending takedowns or getting back up. However, he is worried about Pereira's chin after being knocked out three months ago. He is not betting on this fight but will look at props like most significant strikes.

will look at props like most significant strikes
"I do think Alex wins this fight but I'm not doing anything with that I I mean honestly this is what's gonna happen I'm here saying Alex is going to win the fight he's the much better more technical Striker …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Jan Błachowicz

Big Brady picks Jan Błachowicz to win by second-round submission. He emphasizes Błachowicz's grappling advantage, noting he took down Israel Adesanya and controlled him. He criticizes Pereira's ground game, which looked poor against Adesanya. He hopes Błachowicz fights smart and uses wrestling, but is not 100% sure he will. If he does, it's an easy win.

second round submission
"I'm going to take lahovich to go out there hopefully fight smart get this fight down to the mat early and often and submit Alex Pereira in the second round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 26, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jan Błachowicz

Cody picks Błachowicz based on the takedown threat, noting Pereira's mediocre takedown defense and Błachowicz's success against Israel Adesanya by taking him down. He believes if Błachowicz gets top control, Pereira won't get up. He mentions the over 2 takedowns prop for Błachowicz. He hasn't bet it but is confident in the pick.

over 2 takedowns for Błachowicz
"I'm leaning towards yawn who's going to be so outclassed way too slow on the feet"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Jul 25, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jan Błachowicz

James picks Jan but with low confidence, citing volatility from Pereira's weight jump, recent knockout loss, and Jan's age. He thinks Jan is an underrated striker with good leg kicks and can compete on the feet, but he also notes Jan is hittable with the left hook. He believes Jan's path to victory includes takedowns, but he cannot guarantee Jan will wrestle.

"I'm gonna side with Yan because I feel like that I think Yan is a very underrated Striker"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jul 24, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Jan Błachowicz

Blachowicz's underrated striking and ability to take the fight to the ground will be the difference. He can survive Pereira's power and find his way into the pocket to grind him out. Pereira hasn't faced someone of Blachowicz's size and grappling. I'm leaning Blachowicz by submission late, but not a lot of conviction.

fight doesn't go to decision
"I'm going to lean with blahovich again not a lot of conviction here but I think his overall Game and his comfortability at fighting at 205 pounds will eventually be the Difference Maker in the spot give me below hovich …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 26, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Alex Pereira

Paul picks Pereira, citing Błachowicz's age (40) and lack of recent wrestling success—only one takedown in his last nine fights (against Adesanya). He argues Błachowicz is not a high-level wrestler and fights at a slow pace, which plays into Pereira's striking. He notes Pereira's training with Glover Teixeira and improved takedown defense. He sees value at plus money.

"I gotta go the other side again the plus money is just a little too tempting"
Draw (split) (48–47, 46–48, 47–47) R5 5:00 · UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev · Dec 10, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jan Błachowicz 0 55 of 117 47% 79 of 141 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Magomed Ankalaev 0 78 of 184 42% 191 of 312 2 of 10 20% 0 0 11:20
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jan Błachowicz 0 14 of 35 40% 14 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Magomed Ankalaev 0 19 of 43 44% 19 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jan Błachowicz 0 23 of 43 53% 23 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Magomed Ankalaev 0 13 of 37 35% 23 of 47 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:32
3 Jan Błachowicz 0 17 of 34 50% 18 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Magomed Ankalaev 0 18 of 48 37% 40 of 70 1 of 5 20% 0 0 1:26
4 Jan Błachowicz 0 1 of 3 33% 11 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Magomed Ankalaev 0 10 of 19 52% 55 of 70 1 of 2 50% 0 0 4:32
5 Jan Błachowicz 0 0 of 2 0% 13 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Magomed Ankalaev 0 18 of 37 48% 54 of 82 0 of 1 0% 0 0 4:50
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jan Błachowicz 55 of 117 47% 19 of 71 11 of 17 25 of 29 50 of 109 5 of 7 0 of 1
Magomed Ankalaev 78 of 184 42% 49 of 139 19 of 33 10 of 12 50 of 134 6 of 8 22 of 42
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jan Błachowicz 14 of 35 40% 3 of 20 4 of 8 7 of 7 14 of 35 0 of 0 0 of 0
Magomed Ankalaev 19 of 43 44% 10 of 28 7 of 12 2 of 3 19 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Jan Błachowicz 23 of 43 53% 10 of 27 3 of 4 10 of 12 18 of 36 5 of 7 0 of 0
Magomed Ankalaev 13 of 37 35% 7 of 24 2 of 8 4 of 5 13 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Jan Błachowicz 17 of 34 50% 5 of 19 4 of 5 8 of 10 17 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
Magomed Ankalaev 18 of 48 37% 10 of 37 6 of 9 2 of 2 16 of 44 2 of 3 0 of 1
4 Jan Błachowicz 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Magomed Ankalaev 10 of 19 52% 4 of 13 4 of 4 2 of 2 1 of 8 4 of 5 5 of 6
5 Jan Błachowicz 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 1
Magomed Ankalaev 18 of 37 48% 18 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 17 of 35
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Angelo is very confident in Ankalaev, calling him the most complete fighter in the division with methodical, technical striking and wrestling. He believes Błachowicz's only chance is to land a big shot in close range, but Ankalaev's length, accuracy, and control will prevent that. He considers Ankalaev at -255 incredible value.

"ankalayev is absolutely the pick he is incredible value at minus 255."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Big Brady picks Magomed Ankalaev, citing his wrestling as the key difference. He notes Błachowicz has poor getup game once taken down, and Ankalaev will mix in takedowns to win rounds. He expects a competitive but boring fight on the feet, with Ankalaev winning by decision. He expresses disappointment in the matchup.

Ankalaev wins by decision; fight goes to decision
"I think ankle live takes behovich down and once he does that's probably going to be the round there... I like ankle I had to get it done and to get it done by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Cody picks Ankalaev, believing he is better in all facets and the number one guy in the division. He notes Ankalaev's high fight IQ, cardio, durability, and ability to adapt to opponents. He thinks Jan is older and his body is deteriorating, citing the Glover fight where Jan tapped quickly to a neck crank. Cody sees Ankalaev winning inside the distance, possibly in rounds 3-5, as Jan fades.

Ankalaev inside the distance (slight plus money)
"I think ankle live is better really in all facets of the game... I got Uncle life winning I don't think the money Line's terrible but if I was to try to chase a prop I got a feeling he's …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Dec 8, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Jan Błachowicz

Connor picks Błachowicz as a flyer, believing Ankalaev will wait too long to wrestle, which could be fatal against a striker as good and defensively sound as Błachowicz. He notes Błachowicz's jab, footwork, and counterpunching will trouble Ankalaev, and that Ankalaev's single-strike approach plays into Błachowicz's hands. However, he acknowledges Ankalaev could dominate if he wrestles early.

Odds: Błachowicz opened +170, now +224; Ankalaev opened -200, now -278.
"So I'm taking the flyer on block of it here."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Daniel Levi picks Magomed Ankalaev to win the vacant light heavyweight title. He emphasizes Ankalaev's patient, risk-averse style that frustrates opponents and his southpaw stance with a nasty counter right hook. Levi notes that Jan Błachowicz tends to attack in a straight line, which plays into Ankalaev's counters, and that Ankalaev can mix in takedowns from his Greco-Roman background. He acknowledges Błachowicz's power and body kicks but believes Ankalaev is defensively sound enough to avoid big moments and will win a decision, likely 4-1. Levi placed a 2-unit bet on Ankalaev at -250.

Bet 2 units on Ankalaev moneyline at -250. Expects decision win, possibly 4-1 rounds.
"I bet on magomed and Khalif... I played magomed minus 250 I played him to win two units"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 9, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Lock is confident in Ankalaev, having bet him as his lock of the week at -255. He believes Ankalaev is that much better than Błachowicz and will rule the light heavyweight division for years. From a PredictionStrike perspective, he thinks $5.26 is not too late to buy in, as Ankalaev has longevity and could reach $8-9 after defending the belt. He recommends holding onto the stock long-term rather than selling immediately.

lock of the week play at -255
"I personally bet him as my Lachlan I play earlier this week at minus 255. I thought that was a great line because I think he's just that much better than blowovich"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Paul picks Ankalaev, noting he is a minus 255 favorite and that he believes Ankalaev is better in all facets. He struggles with Ankalaev's tendency to fight safe and not always press for finishes, making it hard to bet props. He thinks Ankalaev wins but is not confident in the moneyline at that price, considering a parlay or prop instead.

Ankalaev inside the distance (slight plus money)
"I think ankle live is better really in all facets of the game... I think he wins minus 255 as a favorite I don't hate it I don't love it I'll be picking him maybe I'll end up with him …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

The MMA Guru picks Magomed Ankalaev over Jan Błachowicz by decision. He believes Ankalaev will be patient at range, use front kicks and jabs, and mix in takedowns after making Błachowicz hesitant. He notes Ankalaev's experience over five rounds and his ability to drain opponents, predicting a 49-46 decision where Ankalaev loses the first round but dominates later rounds.

"I'm gonna be going with yamla no magamed and Goliath winning this one options win fights"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 8, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Zane picks Ankalaev, citing his durability, patience, and power. He believes Ankalaev will find a moment to take Błachowicz down and win three rounds, as Błachowicz has historically struggled against takedown artists. Zane trusts Ankalaev to be consistent enough to capitalize on opportunities.

Odds: Ankalaev opened -200, now -278.
"I'll take uncle live just to be patient enough and powerful enough and consistent enough to take advantage of his opportunities when he gets some out of the fight."
TKO (knee injury) R3 1:11 · UFC on ESPN: Blachowicz vs. Rakic · May 14, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jan Błachowicz 0 31 of 71 43% 53 of 94 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:01
Aleksandar Rakić 0 27 of 85 31% 61 of 125 1 of 4 25% 0 0 4:33
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jan Błachowicz 0 25 of 53 47% 25 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Aleksandar Rakić 0 12 of 52 23% 12 of 52 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Jan Błachowicz 0 1 of 3 33% 23 of 26 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Aleksandar Rakić 0 10 of 19 52% 44 of 59 1 of 2 50% 0 0 4:33
3 Jan Błachowicz 0 5 of 15 33% 5 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Aleksandar Rakić 0 5 of 14 35% 5 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jan Błachowicz 31 of 71 43% 8 of 31 9 of 21 14 of 19 31 of 69 0 of 2 0 of 0
Aleksandar Rakić 27 of 85 31% 14 of 60 2 of 9 11 of 16 17 of 70 0 of 0 10 of 15
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jan Błachowicz 25 of 53 47% 7 of 24 6 of 14 12 of 15 25 of 51 0 of 2 0 of 0
Aleksandar Rakić 12 of 52 23% 1 of 32 1 of 8 10 of 12 12 of 52 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Jan Błachowicz 1 of 3 33% 0 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 1 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Aleksandar Rakić 10 of 19 52% 10 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 4 0 of 0 10 of 15
3 Jan Błachowicz 5 of 15 33% 1 of 6 2 of 6 2 of 3 5 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Aleksandar Rakić 5 of 14 35% 3 of 11 1 of 1 1 of 2 5 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked May 11, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Aleksandar Rakić

Cody leans toward Rakić but is hesitant due to the price. He notes that Jan Błachowicz has a good body of work, striking, and takedown ability, but is concerned about a potential neck injury from the Glover fight. He thinks Rakić is young and hungry, but the value isn't there at -195, and he can't pull the trigger on the dog because he believes Jan is damaged goods.

"I think I would have to go wreckage but uh I'd like to put main events on my top ticket right and his wreckage a top ticket guy I just explained that I think that the value is not really …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked May 11, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Paul is undecided, calling it a dogger pass. He acknowledges a case for Rakić's wrestling not being tested and Jan's fantastic chin and cardio. He wants to wait for weigh-ins and interviews before making a pick. He leans toward Jan as a live dog if he drags Rakić into deep waters and takes him down multiple times.

"there could be a case to be made that rakic's wrestling hasn't been tested and yawn historically fantastic chin good cardio volume is okay volume is better than what we've seen from rackets i mean if he drags this kid …"
LOSS vs Glover Teixeira
Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 3:02 · UFC 267: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira · Oct 30, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Glover Teixeira 0 28 of 45 62% 53 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Jan Błachowicz 0 23 of 39 58% 71 of 93 2 of 6 33% 2 0 5:17
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Glover Teixeira 0 6 of 8 75% 29 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jan Błachowicz 0 10 of 15 66% 51 of 61 1 of 2 50% 1 0 4:29
2 Glover Teixeira 0 22 of 37 59% 24 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Jan Błachowicz 0 13 of 24 54% 20 of 32 1 of 4 25% 1 0 0:48
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Glover Teixeira 28 of 45 62% 20 of 37 6 of 6 2 of 2 26 of 43 1 of 1 1 of 1
Jan Błachowicz 23 of 39 58% 17 of 33 6 of 6 0 of 0 11 of 25 0 of 0 12 of 14
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Glover Teixeira 6 of 8 75% 4 of 6 0 of 0 2 of 2 5 of 7 0 of 0 1 of 1
Jan Błachowicz 10 of 15 66% 9 of 14 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 4 0 of 0 10 of 11
2 Glover Teixeira 22 of 37 59% 16 of 31 6 of 6 0 of 0 21 of 36 1 of 1 0 of 0
Jan Błachowicz 13 of 24 54% 8 of 19 5 of 5 0 of 0 11 of 21 0 of 0 2 of 3
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 26, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Jan Błachowicz

Big Brady picks Jan Błachowicz to win by knockout. He believes Jan is the better striker and will hurt Glover, who is chinny at 42. Glover's path is takedowns, but Jan has excellent takedown defense (only taken down once in last 10 fights). He expects Jan to be calculated and not rush in, eventually knocking Glover out. He references Jan's performance against Adesanya.

Błachowicz by knockout
"I'm going to go blhovet here um i could see to share having success here or there but i think beljovich knocks them out at some point."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 27, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Jan Błachowicz

Cody agrees Jan wins but disagrees on finish, thinking Jan is more of a decision fighter. He notes Jan's solid takedown defense, BJJ black belt, and cardio. He picks Jan but sees the fight going over 2.5 rounds, possibly a decision. He mentions Jan by decision is +300 but he's not confident in a finish.

Over 2.5 rounds (-115), Jan by decision +300
"i got yawn but i could also see where yon just wins four of the five rounds and wins the unanimous decision"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 28, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Jan Błachowicz

Daniel picks Jan Błachowicz to defend his title, citing Jan's improved accuracy, timing, and ability to mix strikes and takedowns. He notes Jan's career turnaround and his wins over top competition like Dominick Reyes and Israel Adesanya. Daniel acknowledges Glover's dangerous ground game and toughness but believes Jan's composure and polish power will lead to a knockout. He emphasizes that Jan is a black belt and won't panic if Glover gets top position.

predicts knockout
"i got yamblochovic to defend his title for the second time and get a knockout along the way"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 28, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Jan Błachowicz

Błachowicz has Polish power and solid cardio, and he can stuff takedowns. Teixeira is slow and has been hurt in recent fights, relying on takedowns to bail him out. Błachowicz will find a knockout on the feet, likely in the first round.

"I still lean blo blhovich here i'm gonna go ablohovich i think he puts that polish power on him and then he gets to share out of there."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 27, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Jan Błachowicz

Paul picks Jan Błachowicz by knockout, citing Jan's 'Polish power' and Glover's compromised chin. He notes Glover has been stunned in recent fights and thinks over five rounds Jan will crack that chin. He mentions the bet is a small play at +100 by KO, not a massive one.

Jan by KO +100 (DraftKings), small play
"yawn by knockout is my pick"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 24, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Jan Błachowicz

The MMA Guru picks Jan Błachowicz to win by KO in the first round. He notes that Glover Teixeira is 41, takes damage in every fight, and has been dropped multiple times. He praises Błachowicz's takedown defense, finishing instinct, and reach advantage. He contrasts Błachowicz's composed finishing (separating and dropping hammer fists) with other opponents who rushed in and gave up position. He predicts Błachowicz will rock Glover, separate, and finish with hammer fists.

first round ko
"i'm going to be going with yamblahovic here over glover to sharer i reckon he gets this one done by ko"
Decision (unanimous) (49–46, 49–45, 49–45) R5 5:00 · UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya · Mar 06, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jan Błachowicz 0 107 of 193 55% 184 of 276 3 of 5 60% 0 0 7:06
Israel Adesanya 0 78 of 161 48% 99 of 182 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jan Błachowicz 0 18 of 31 58% 18 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Israel Adesanya 0 13 of 30 43% 13 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jan Błachowicz 0 23 of 49 46% 23 of 49 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Israel Adesanya 0 21 of 42 50% 21 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Jan Błachowicz 0 24 of 42 57% 28 of 46 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:07
Israel Adesanya 0 21 of 40 52% 34 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
4 Jan Błachowicz 0 14 of 24 58% 51 of 64 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:29
Israel Adesanya 0 11 of 20 55% 15 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Jan Błachowicz 0 28 of 47 59% 64 of 86 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:30
Israel Adesanya 0 12 of 29 41% 16 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jan Błachowicz 107 of 193 55% 67 of 146 29 of 33 11 of 14 85 of 169 6 of 6 16 of 18
Israel Adesanya 78 of 161 48% 32 of 102 17 of 23 29 of 36 77 of 158 0 of 1 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jan Błachowicz 18 of 31 58% 3 of 13 7 of 7 8 of 11 18 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
Israel Adesanya 13 of 30 43% 2 of 14 3 of 4 8 of 12 13 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Jan Błachowicz 23 of 49 46% 9 of 33 12 of 14 2 of 2 22 of 48 1 of 1 0 of 0
Israel Adesanya 21 of 42 50% 5 of 23 7 of 8 9 of 11 21 of 42 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Jan Błachowicz 24 of 42 57% 18 of 34 6 of 8 0 of 0 20 of 38 4 of 4 0 of 0
Israel Adesanya 21 of 40 52% 12 of 30 4 of 4 5 of 6 21 of 39 0 of 1 0 of 0
4 Jan Błachowicz 14 of 24 58% 12 of 22 2 of 2 0 of 0 8 of 18 1 of 1 5 of 5
Israel Adesanya 11 of 20 55% 8 of 15 1 of 3 2 of 2 10 of 18 0 of 0 1 of 2
5 Jan Błachowicz 28 of 47 59% 25 of 44 2 of 2 1 of 1 17 of 34 0 of 0 11 of 13
Israel Adesanya 12 of 29 41% 5 of 20 2 of 4 5 of 5 12 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 4, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Angelo picks Adesanya based on speed, footwork, and counter-striking ability. He notes that Adesanya walks around light (193 lbs) to stay fast and quick, and will use his range to frustrate Błachowicz. He acknowledges Błachowicz's power and ground game but believes Adesanya's movement and counters will be decisive.

"i think other side is going to win uh if you know he's uh smaller guys in weight but he's a taller he get more range"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 3, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Big Brady picks Israel Adesanya, citing his massive speed and volume advantages. He doubts Błachowicz can close the distance or get takedowns, noting Błachowicz hasn't attempted takedowns in recent fights. He predicts a kickboxing fight and likes the over 2.5 rounds. He would bet Adesanya if the line drops to -190.

over 2.5 rounds
"i'm going with arasana here do i love him as a parley piece not really honestly but i do think he wins"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Daniel picks Israel Adesanya to win and become a two-division champion, citing his speed, technique, and diverse striking. He acknowledges Jan Błachowicz's power and puncher's chance but believes Adesanya's skill set will be too much.

"i'm gonna say izzy makes history uh saturday night and you know joins that very exclusive list of uh champ champs"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Mar 4, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Jacob picks Adesanya because he thinks Adesanya has the best walk-in dance he's ever seen, referencing the fight against Robert Whittaker. This is a lighthearted reason, but he clearly states his pick.

"i pick israel israel because i think he had the best walk-in dance i've ever seen when he fought robert whittaker"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 4, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Adesanya's striking wizardry and calf kicks should be key, but Błachowicz has power and a black belt in jiu-jitsu. The host expects a tough fight and predicts a late stoppage (4th or 5th round) for Adesanya, but advises caution due to Błachowicz's power.

over 1.5 rounds, over 2.5 rounds
"i'll go with the artisana side and i'm going to take him to win by fourth or fifth round stoppage"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 26, 2021 (8 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

The MMA Guru picks Israel Adesanya to win by TKO in the third or fourth round. He believes Adesanya's striking precision and speed will be too much for Błachowicz, who is flat-footed and loads up his kicks. He predicts Adesanya will chop at the legs early, frustrate Błachowicz, and catch him rushing in with a counter hook, similar to how Thiago Santos finished him.

"i'm going with israel to sanya getting the job done third or fourth round tko"
TKO (punches) R2 4:36 · UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa · Sep 27, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jan Błachowicz 0 21 of 51 41% 21 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dominick Reyes 1 41 of 89 46% 41 of 89 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jan Błachowicz 0 10 of 20 50% 10 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dominick Reyes 0 15 of 36 41% 15 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jan Błachowicz 0 11 of 31 35% 11 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dominick Reyes 1 26 of 53 49% 26 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jan Błachowicz 21 of 51 41% 9 of 35 2 of 5 10 of 11 21 of 51 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dominick Reyes 41 of 89 46% 25 of 70 6 of 9 10 of 10 37 of 83 1 of 2 3 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jan Błachowicz 10 of 20 50% 3 of 12 1 of 1 6 of 7 10 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dominick Reyes 15 of 36 41% 2 of 22 5 of 6 8 of 8 15 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Jan Błachowicz 11 of 31 35% 6 of 23 1 of 4 4 of 4 11 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dominick Reyes 26 of 53 49% 23 of 48 1 of 3 2 of 2 22 of 47 1 of 2 3 of 4
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 23, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Dominick Reyes

Big Brady picks Reyes, citing his higher output and better striking. He downplays Błachowicz's power, noting he has only three knockouts since 2011 and those were against chinny opponents. He believes Reyes' takedown defense and durability will carry him to a third-round knockout.

Reyes by third-round knockout
"give me dominic reyes i'm going to say uh third round knockout for dominic reyes"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Sep 25, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Dominick Reyes

Daniel Levi slightly edges Dominick Reyes because he gave Jon Jones a tough fight, but he is not confident at the current price. He notes Jan Błachowicz is underrated and has shown improvements, and that Reyes has a cringey attitude and may be underestimating Błachowicz. He calls it a dog-or-pass situation and suggests betting Błachowicz at plus money.

dog or pass situation; plus 230 on yom blakovich in a title fight
"i'm gonna slightly edge reyes here just because he gave jones that tough fight but like dude this might be a situation where you pick reyes and bet yamlakova just because of the betting odds"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 26, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Jan Błachowicz

The host picks Jan Błachowicz as an underdog, citing his experience, durability, and ability to make the fight dirty. He believes Reyes may fade in later rounds as he did against Jones, and that Błachowicz can grind out a decision. He notes that the line is too wide and that Błachowicz has a better chance than the odds suggest.

over 2.5 rounds, Błachowicz by decision
"I like yamahovich in this spot but for some reason i just can't pull the trigger... i'm actually going to go with yamblahovic to win this fight by decision."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 20, 2020 (7 days before fight)
Dominick Reyes

The MMA Guru picks Dominick Reyes, citing his win over Jon Jones (though a loss on record) and his style of using range and oblique kicks. He thinks Reyes will catch Błachowicz moving backwards in the first or second round with a big shot, similar to how Santos did. He notes Błachowicz's power is overrated as he KO'd Luke Rockhold and Corey Anderson, who are easy to KO.

Win by KO in round 1 or 2
"i think he'll catch jan blackovich in the first or second round with a big shot and finished a job much like santos did"