Career Averages - Thiago Santos
Career Averages - Jan Błachowicz
Thiago Santos - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamahal Hill | 0 | 53 of 94 | 56% | 56 of 98 | 6 of 20 | 30% | 0 | 0 | 5:54 |
| Thiago Santos | 0 | 89 of 152 | 58% | 130 of 194 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:26 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jamahal Hill | 0 | 10 of 18 | 55% | 11 of 19 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:23 |
| Thiago Santos | 0 | 9 of 30 | 30% | 18 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jamahal Hill | 0 | 16 of 38 | 42% | 16 of 38 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0:41 |
| Thiago Santos | 0 | 31 of 52 | 59% | 35 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:22 | |
| 3 | Jamahal Hill | 0 | 8 of 11 | 72% | 10 of 14 | 5 of 11 | 45% | 0 | 0 | 3:50 |
| Thiago Santos | 0 | 9 of 11 | 81% | 23 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:33 | |
| 4 | Jamahal Hill | 0 | 19 of 27 | 70% | 19 of 27 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Thiago Santos | 0 | 40 of 59 | 67% | 54 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:31 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamahal Hill | 53 of 94 | 56% | 28 of 66 | 13 of 16 | 12 of 12 | 43 of 82 | 8 of 9 | 2 of 3 |
| Thiago Santos | 89 of 152 | 58% | 68 of 131 | 12 of 12 | 9 of 9 | 52 of 107 | 19 of 21 | 18 of 24 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jamahal Hill | 10 of 18 | 55% | 1 of 8 | 3 of 4 | 6 of 6 | 9 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Thiago Santos | 9 of 30 | 30% | 5 of 26 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 26 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jamahal Hill | 16 of 38 | 42% | 9 of 29 | 5 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 14 of 35 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 1 |
| Thiago Santos | 31 of 52 | 59% | 19 of 40 | 5 of 5 | 7 of 7 | 28 of 48 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jamahal Hill | 8 of 11 | 72% | 6 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 2 |
| Thiago Santos | 9 of 11 | 81% | 5 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 4 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Jamahal Hill | 19 of 27 | 70% | 12 of 20 | 4 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 17 of 24 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Thiago Santos | 40 of 59 | 67% | 39 of 58 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 17 of 29 | 5 of 6 | 18 of 24 |
Angelo picks Jamahal Hill, citing Thiago Santos's decline in power and speed since his injuries. He notes Hill's excellent striking differential and accuracy, and believes he can outpoint Santos. However, he acknowledges Santos's durability and championship-round experience, leaving some uncertainty if the fight goes deep. He cannot bet on 'survive logic' and sticks with Hill.
Big Brady picks Jamahal Hill, noting his high volume and power compared to Thiago Santos, who has been low-volume and inactive in his recent fights. He acknowledges Santos's power and the fact that Hill is hittable, but believes Hill's pressure and output will overwhelm Santos. He predicts a second or third-round knockout win for Hill, expressing hope that Hill makes it exciting after Santos's recent boring performances.
Cody also picks Hill, citing Santos's decline since the Jones fight and his knee injuries. He notes that Santos has become a shell of himself, with low output and a tendency to wait for counters. Cody believes Hill's length, southpaw stance, and left hand will be key, and that Hill can carry his power into later rounds. He predicts a late stoppage or decision for Hill.
Daniel Levi picks Jamahal Hill, citing his superior output (nearly double Santos's), power, and heart. He notes Hill's ability to fight in the pocket and force Santos to engage, while Santos has declined since knee surgeries and lacks the output to keep up. Levi is concerned about Santos's power and opportunistic hooks but believes Hill's durability and pace will prevail. He parlayed Hill with Oleksiejczuk to win 2 units.
Paul picks Jamahal Hill, noting that Hill is too fast for Thiago Santos. He points out that Santos has been in a decline since his fight with Jon Jones, with knee injuries and poor performances. Paul is concerned about the -315 price but still sees Hill as the rightful favorite. He mentions that Hill's speed and power should be enough to win, possibly by late stoppage or decision.
The MMA Guru picks Jamahal Hill by second-round TKO. He notes Santos's age (38) and lack of leg kicks since injury. He believes Hill's rangy punching and pressure will be effective, and compares to David Branch's KO of Santos. He expects Hill to land a one-two against the cage after a competitive first round.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magomed Ankalaev | 1 | 60 of 138 | 43% | 81 of 160 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
| Thiago Santos | 0 | 78 of 155 | 50% | 114 of 191 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:35 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 10 of 21 | 47% | 10 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Thiago Santos | 0 | 8 of 23 | 34% | 8 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Magomed Ankalaev | 1 | 15 of 36 | 41% | 18 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
| Thiago Santos | 0 | 15 of 32 | 46% | 15 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 18 of 30 | 60% | 18 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Thiago Santos | 0 | 19 of 31 | 61% | 19 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 10 of 32 | 31% | 16 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Thiago Santos | 0 | 21 of 48 | 43% | 36 of 63 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:56 | |
| 5 | Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 7 of 19 | 36% | 19 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Thiago Santos | 0 | 15 of 21 | 71% | 36 of 42 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:39 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magomed Ankalaev | 60 of 138 | 43% | 14 of 75 | 16 of 26 | 30 of 37 | 57 of 135 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 |
| Thiago Santos | 78 of 155 | 50% | 33 of 94 | 35 of 51 | 10 of 10 | 64 of 140 | 12 of 13 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Magomed Ankalaev | 10 of 21 | 47% | 0 of 6 | 3 of 6 | 7 of 9 | 10 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Thiago Santos | 8 of 23 | 34% | 3 of 13 | 4 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Magomed Ankalaev | 15 of 36 | 41% | 7 of 22 | 3 of 6 | 5 of 8 | 13 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Thiago Santos | 15 of 32 | 46% | 6 of 18 | 6 of 11 | 3 of 3 | 14 of 31 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Magomed Ankalaev | 18 of 30 | 60% | 2 of 13 | 4 of 4 | 12 of 13 | 18 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Thiago Santos | 19 of 31 | 61% | 7 of 17 | 7 of 9 | 5 of 5 | 18 of 30 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Magomed Ankalaev | 10 of 32 | 31% | 4 of 23 | 4 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Thiago Santos | 21 of 48 | 43% | 13 of 38 | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 45 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | |
| 5 | Magomed Ankalaev | 7 of 19 | 36% | 1 of 11 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 5 | 6 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Thiago Santos | 15 of 21 | 71% | 4 of 8 | 10 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 11 | 9 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Magomed Ankalaev, noting that Thiago Santos has slowed down at 38 and is not the same fighter who knocked out Jan Blachowicz. He believes Ankalaev's forward pressure, heavy kicks, and constant takedown threats will be too much. He expects a one-sided win, though not necessarily a stoppage.
Big Brady picks Magomed Ankalaev to win by decision. He notes Santos is 38, looks washed, has low volume (44 strikes in 25 minutes vs Walker), and has never recovered from his knee injuries after the Jones fight. He thinks Ankalaev is well-rounded, has power, and will outpoint Santos easily over five rounds. He expects the fight to be somewhat uneventful but Ankalaev will dominate. He mentions the line has moved from -330 to -500.
Cody is confident in Ankalaev, citing his pace, cardio, chin, and improved striking. He notes Santos is 38, has declined since knee surgery, and lacks volume. Cody sees Ankalaev as the best at 205 and expects him to win via pressure and volume, possibly a late stoppage. He mentions a parlay with Murzakanov at -106.
Daniel Levi picks Magomed Ankalaev to win, citing Ankalaev's upward trajectory and the emergence of a new era of light heavyweights. He notes that Thiago Santos has had lackluster performances since the Jon Jones fight, with his knees falling apart. Levi expects a chess match early but sees Ankalaev landing a big counter or takedown with ground and pound. He acknowledges Santos's power but believes Ankalaev's counters are sharp and that he will eventually get a title shot.
Ankalaev is seen as the uncrowned champ, with a seven-fight win streak and granite chin. He's a technical striker with high striking defense, and his ability to adjust mid-fight is praised. Santos is past his prime at 38, with ACL surgery and tentative performances. Ankalaev is expected to win via decision, possibly a one-sided chess match.
Paul echoes Cody's view, emphasizing Santos' decline and Ankalaev's advantages in speed, volume, and wrestling. He notes the price is high but believes Ankalaev is the best in the division. He also mentions a parlay with Murzakanov.
The MMA Guru picks Magomed Ankalaev over Thiago Santos, citing Santos' hesitancy and lack of ligaments in his leg. He believes Ankalaev will chop at the legs early, mix in takedowns, and expose Santos' poor ground game as Glover Teixeira did. He expects a late second-round ground-and-pound TKO, noting that Ankalaev's patient counter-striking style works well against Santos. He admits Santos is a decent underdog but says the odds won't sway him, as Ankalaev wins this fight seven or eight times out of ten.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thiago Santos | 0 | 44 of 105 | 41% | 44 of 105 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Johnny Walker | 0 | 48 of 130 | 36% | 48 of 130 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Thiago Santos | 0 | 3 of 13 | 23% | 3 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Johnny Walker | 0 | 9 of 15 | 60% | 9 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Thiago Santos | 0 | 11 of 22 | 50% | 11 of 22 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Johnny Walker | 0 | 10 of 20 | 50% | 10 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Thiago Santos | 0 | 11 of 25 | 44% | 11 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Johnny Walker | 0 | 10 of 25 | 40% | 10 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Thiago Santos | 0 | 9 of 22 | 40% | 9 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Johnny Walker | 0 | 11 of 41 | 26% | 11 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Thiago Santos | 0 | 10 of 23 | 43% | 10 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Johnny Walker | 0 | 8 of 29 | 27% | 8 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thiago Santos | 44 of 105 | 41% | 9 of 40 | 16 of 28 | 19 of 37 | 42 of 103 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Johnny Walker | 48 of 130 | 36% | 7 of 55 | 9 of 20 | 32 of 55 | 46 of 127 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Thiago Santos | 3 of 13 | 23% | 0 of 6 | 1 of 4 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Johnny Walker | 9 of 15 | 60% | 0 of 2 | 1 of 3 | 8 of 10 | 9 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Thiago Santos | 11 of 22 | 50% | 2 of 5 | 6 of 8 | 3 of 9 | 9 of 20 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Johnny Walker | 10 of 20 | 50% | 2 of 6 | 2 of 3 | 6 of 11 | 8 of 17 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Thiago Santos | 11 of 25 | 44% | 2 of 10 | 1 of 4 | 8 of 11 | 11 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Johnny Walker | 10 of 25 | 40% | 2 of 10 | 2 of 6 | 6 of 9 | 10 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Thiago Santos | 9 of 22 | 40% | 2 of 9 | 4 of 6 | 3 of 7 | 9 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Johnny Walker | 11 of 41 | 26% | 1 of 22 | 2 of 3 | 8 of 16 | 11 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Thiago Santos | 10 of 23 | 43% | 3 of 10 | 4 of 6 | 3 of 7 | 10 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Johnny Walker | 8 of 29 | 27% | 2 of 15 | 2 of 5 | 4 of 9 | 8 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Johnny Walker, expecting his forward pressure, craziness, and size to frustrate Thiago Santos, who is a shell of his former self after knee injuries and three straight losses. He notes that Santos has massive power and could knock anyone out, but his cardio suffers and he may be gun-shy. Walker is never afraid to throw and will stay busy. Angelo likes Walker at plus 145 moneyline and in DraftKings at $7,400. He also likes the over on rounds and the more more monkey knife fight pick.
Big Brady picks Thiago Santos to win, citing his experience, better competition, and more paths to victory. He notes Santos has fought Jon Jones, Glover Teixeira, and Rakic, while Walker's best wins are over lesser competition. Walker is very hittable (31% striking defense) and chinny, while Santos hits hard. Santos has better cardio, having gone five rounds with Jones, while Walker fades after the first round. Brady suggests a ground game path for Santos, similar to his win over Kevin Holland. He recommends a violence play rather than the moneyline.
Cody picks Thiago Santos based on superior experience and durability. He notes that Santos has slowed down and his knees are shot, but he still hits hard and can drag the fight into later rounds. He expects Santos to survive Walker's early explosiveness and then pressure him, eventually landing a finish in the second, third, or fourth round. He highlights that Santos outstruck Alexander Rakic in their fight and has better cardio than Walker, who has never gone five rounds.
Daniel Levi picks Johnny Walker as the underdog, citing that both fighters have declined since their surgeries—Santos after ACL surgery and Walker after shoulder injury. He notes Walker's dynamic striking and finishing ability but acknowledges his poor durability and tendency to flop when hit. Levi believes the fight is a coin flip about who lands first, but he leans Walker because of motivation concerns for the nearly 40-year-old Santos with a baby on the way. He expects a knockout either way and takes the underdog.
I think Santos is the more disciplined striker and should be able to counter Walker's wildness. Walker is explosive but hittable and has poor durability. However, I'm concerned about Santos's recent performances and knee surgeries. I like Santos inside the distance at -120 and also like the under 1.5 rounds. I'm picking Santos but not with high confidence.
Paul agrees with Cody, picking Santos but with less confidence. He notes that Walker is dangerous early but has never gone five rounds and his cardio is suspect. He believes Santos's chin holds up better at 205 and that Walker's grappling is not a major concern. He does not have a bet on Santos straight up but suggests looking at live betting after the first round if Santos survives.
The MMA Guru picks Thiago Santos, despite rooting for Johnny Walker. He notes Santos' check hook is his best weapon and Walker leaves himself open when rushing in. Walker has been KO'd in most of his losses by rushing in. Santos has five-round experience and still has power. He predicts Santos will catch Walker with a check hook and finish him by KO.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aleksandar Rakić | 0 | 49 of 97 | 50% | 61 of 109 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Thiago Santos | 0 | 36 of 89 | 40% | 50 of 103 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:32 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aleksandar Rakić | 0 | 15 of 27 | 55% | 15 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Thiago Santos | 0 | 14 of 30 | 46% | 14 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Aleksandar Rakić | 0 | 11 of 31 | 35% | 18 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Thiago Santos | 0 | 15 of 35 | 42% | 24 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:11 | |
| 3 | Aleksandar Rakić | 0 | 23 of 39 | 58% | 28 of 44 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Thiago Santos | 0 | 7 of 24 | 29% | 12 of 29 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:21 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aleksandar Rakić | 49 of 97 | 50% | 10 of 41 | 23 of 33 | 16 of 23 | 35 of 82 | 14 of 15 | 0 of 0 |
| Thiago Santos | 36 of 89 | 40% | 8 of 47 | 13 of 16 | 15 of 26 | 29 of 82 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aleksandar Rakić | 15 of 27 | 55% | 1 of 8 | 8 of 11 | 6 of 8 | 15 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Thiago Santos | 14 of 30 | 46% | 3 of 16 | 3 of 4 | 8 of 10 | 14 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Aleksandar Rakić | 11 of 31 | 35% | 3 of 16 | 6 of 10 | 2 of 5 | 5 of 25 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Thiago Santos | 15 of 35 | 42% | 3 of 17 | 8 of 9 | 4 of 9 | 8 of 28 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Aleksandar Rakić | 23 of 39 | 58% | 6 of 17 | 9 of 12 | 8 of 10 | 15 of 30 | 8 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| Thiago Santos | 7 of 24 | 29% | 2 of 14 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 7 | 7 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Aleksandar Rakić, favoring him on the feet and heavily on the ground. He notes Rakić has been dropped before (by Devin Clark) and is hittable, while Santos has one-shot power. He recommends a ground game plan and predicts a TKO ground-and-pound finish in the second round, but passes on betting.
Daniel picks Aleksandar Rakić to win, citing his well-rounded game, wrestling, and smart game planning. He notes Santos' submission defense issues and believes Rakić can mix in takedowns and possibly finish on the mat or win a decision.
Rakić is younger, stronger, and has a wrestling advantage. Santos is 37 with knee injuries and poor jiu-jitsu off his back. The host expects Rakić to use his kicks and takedowns to control the fight and win by decision.
The MMA Guru picks Aleksandar Rakić over Thiago Santos. He highlights Rakić's dangerous leg kicks and improved grappling, and notes Santos has no ligaments in his legs. He believes Rakić will chop at Santos's legs, inhibit his movement, and win by 30-27 unanimous decision, possibly mixing in takedowns.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Glover Teixeira | 1 | 40 of 64 | 62% | 81 of 109 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:18 |
| Thiago Santos | 0 | 46 of 63 | 73% | 148 of 180 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 2 | 0 | 9:03 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Glover Teixeira | 0 | 15 of 24 | 62% | 40 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Thiago Santos | 0 | 20 of 27 | 74% | 77 of 87 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 4:02 | |
| 2 | Glover Teixeira | 0 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 9 of 14 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Thiago Santos | 0 | 22 of 31 | 70% | 58 of 78 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 4:39 | |
| 3 | Glover Teixeira | 1 | 22 of 33 | 66% | 32 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:14 |
| Thiago Santos | 0 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 13 of 15 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 0:22 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Glover Teixeira | 40 of 64 | 62% | 38 of 58 | 0 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 11 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 29 of 40 |
| Thiago Santos | 46 of 63 | 73% | 46 of 63 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 44 of 58 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Glover Teixeira | 15 of 24 | 62% | 15 of 23 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 8 |
| Thiago Santos | 20 of 27 | 74% | 20 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 19 of 24 | |
| 2 | Glover Teixeira | 3 of 7 | 42% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Thiago Santos | 22 of 31 | 70% | 22 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 21 of 30 | |
| 3 | Glover Teixeira | 22 of 33 | 66% | 22 of 32 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 21 of 31 |
| Thiago Santos | 4 of 5 | 80% | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 |
Big Brady picks Teixeira as an underdog, citing Santos' injury layoff and questionable losses. He thinks Teixeira has more paths to victory, including takedowns and submissions. He notes Teixeira's recent form and improved conditioning.
Daniel Levi leans toward Glover Teixeira as a betting pick, despite acknowledging Thiago Santos should be the favorite. He believes Teixeira's ground game is a huge edge; if he gets Santos down, the fight is likely over via submission. Levi notes that Santos is explosive and powerful on the feet, and Teixeira has been wobbled before, but he thinks Teixeira can take him down and submit him. He calls it a 'dog or pass' situation and picks Teixeira at plus money.
The host is very confident in Glover Teixeira at plus money, citing Thiago Santos coming off a severe ACL injury and a 16-month layoff. He believes Glover's durability, top pressure, and jiu-jitsu will be too much, especially in a five-round fight where Glover can drown Santos. He notes that Santos is not a one-punch knockout artist and that Glover has only been finished once in 3.5 years. He plans to wait for a better line, expecting it to reach +200.
The MMA Guru picks Thiago Santos to win by first-round TKO. He believes Santos is too dangerous in the first round and Teixeira has a habit of getting cracked early. He notes Santos's power and cardio, and that Teixeira cannot afford to take the same shots he took against lesser opponents.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Jones | 0 | 59 of 90 | 65% | 59 of 90 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Thiago Santos | 0 | 43 of 166 | 25% | 43 of 166 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jon Jones | 0 | 7 of 16 | 43% | 7 of 16 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Thiago Santos | 0 | 11 of 26 | 42% | 11 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jon Jones | 0 | 11 of 17 | 64% | 11 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Thiago Santos | 0 | 7 of 42 | 16% | 7 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Jon Jones | 0 | 14 of 19 | 73% | 14 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Thiago Santos | 0 | 6 of 33 | 18% | 6 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Jon Jones | 0 | 11 of 17 | 64% | 11 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Thiago Santos | 0 | 8 of 28 | 28% | 8 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Jon Jones | 0 | 16 of 21 | 76% | 16 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Thiago Santos | 0 | 11 of 37 | 29% | 11 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Jones | 59 of 90 | 65% | 11 of 32 | 16 of 19 | 32 of 39 | 55 of 84 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Thiago Santos | 43 of 166 | 25% | 9 of 92 | 7 of 21 | 27 of 53 | 42 of 159 | 1 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jon Jones | 7 of 16 | 43% | 0 of 4 | 3 of 5 | 4 of 7 | 7 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Thiago Santos | 11 of 26 | 42% | 3 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 13 | 11 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jon Jones | 11 of 17 | 64% | 2 of 7 | 4 of 4 | 5 of 6 | 10 of 15 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Thiago Santos | 7 of 42 | 16% | 1 of 25 | 2 of 6 | 4 of 11 | 6 of 38 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jon Jones | 14 of 19 | 73% | 4 of 7 | 4 of 4 | 6 of 8 | 11 of 15 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Thiago Santos | 6 of 33 | 18% | 1 of 17 | 1 of 6 | 4 of 10 | 6 of 30 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Jon Jones | 11 of 17 | 64% | 2 of 7 | 2 of 3 | 7 of 7 | 11 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Thiago Santos | 8 of 28 | 28% | 0 of 13 | 1 of 5 | 7 of 10 | 8 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Jon Jones | 16 of 21 | 76% | 3 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 10 of 11 | 16 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Thiago Santos | 11 of 37 | 29% | 4 of 25 | 2 of 3 | 5 of 9 | 11 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thiago Santos | 0 | 20 of 53 | 37% | 20 of 53 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Jan Błachowicz | 1 | 52 of 104 | 50% | 52 of 104 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Thiago Santos | 0 | 7 of 27 | 25% | 7 of 27 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 22 of 44 | 50% | 22 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Thiago Santos | 0 | 12 of 23 | 52% | 12 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 13 of 34 | 38% | 13 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Thiago Santos | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jan Błachowicz | 1 | 17 of 26 | 65% | 17 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thiago Santos | 20 of 53 | 37% | 7 of 31 | 6 of 12 | 7 of 10 | 19 of 51 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Jan Błachowicz | 52 of 104 | 50% | 21 of 58 | 5 of 10 | 26 of 36 | 38 of 82 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 21 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Thiago Santos | 7 of 27 | 25% | 3 of 16 | 2 of 7 | 2 of 4 | 6 of 25 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Jan Błachowicz | 22 of 44 | 50% | 4 of 19 | 4 of 7 | 14 of 18 | 21 of 43 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Thiago Santos | 12 of 23 | 52% | 3 of 12 | 4 of 5 | 5 of 6 | 12 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jan Błachowicz | 13 of 34 | 38% | 2 of 16 | 1 of 3 | 10 of 15 | 13 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Thiago Santos | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jan Błachowicz | 17 of 26 | 65% | 15 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 21 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thiago Santos | 0 | 27 of 42 | 64% | 30 of 45 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:25 |
| Jimi Manuwa | 2 | 42 of 74 | 56% | 65 of 97 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:19 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Thiago Santos | 0 | 26 of 36 | 72% | 29 of 39 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:23 |
| Jimi Manuwa | 1 | 33 of 55 | 60% | 55 of 77 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:16 | |
| 2 | Thiago Santos | 0 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 1 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Jimi Manuwa | 1 | 9 of 19 | 47% | 10 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thiago Santos | 27 of 42 | 64% | 15 of 30 | 12 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 20 | 17 of 19 | 2 of 3 |
| Jimi Manuwa | 42 of 74 | 56% | 27 of 58 | 13 of 14 | 2 of 2 | 20 of 45 | 22 of 28 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Thiago Santos | 26 of 36 | 72% | 15 of 25 | 11 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 15 | 17 of 18 | 2 of 3 |
| Jimi Manuwa | 33 of 55 | 60% | 20 of 41 | 11 of 12 | 2 of 2 | 15 of 32 | 18 of 22 | 0 of 1 | |
| 2 | Thiago Santos | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Jimi Manuwa | 9 of 19 | 47% | 7 of 17 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 13 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Jan Błachowicz - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan Błachowicz | 1 | 84 of 149 | 56% | 100 of 173 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:08 |
| Bogdan Guskov | 1 | 80 of 140 | 57% | 98 of 160 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 4:09 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 25 of 52 | 48% | 25 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Bogdan Guskov | 0 | 21 of 44 | 47% | 21 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 11 of 13 | 84% | 25 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Bogdan Guskov | 1 | 32 of 51 | 62% | 50 of 71 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 4:09 | |
| 3 | Jan Błachowicz | 1 | 48 of 84 | 57% | 50 of 86 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
| Bogdan Guskov | 0 | 27 of 45 | 60% | 27 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan Błachowicz | 84 of 149 | 56% | 56 of 112 | 11 of 17 | 17 of 20 | 74 of 135 | 2 of 3 | 8 of 11 |
| Bogdan Guskov | 80 of 140 | 57% | 69 of 127 | 2 of 3 | 9 of 10 | 52 of 96 | 0 of 0 | 28 of 44 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jan Błachowicz | 25 of 52 | 48% | 13 of 35 | 3 of 6 | 9 of 11 | 25 of 52 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Bogdan Guskov | 21 of 44 | 47% | 10 of 32 | 2 of 3 | 9 of 9 | 21 of 44 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jan Błachowicz | 11 of 13 | 84% | 7 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 11 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Bogdan Guskov | 32 of 51 | 62% | 32 of 51 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 28 of 44 | |
| 3 | Jan Błachowicz | 48 of 84 | 57% | 36 of 68 | 7 of 10 | 5 of 6 | 38 of 70 | 2 of 3 | 8 of 11 |
| Bogdan Guskov | 27 of 45 | 60% | 27 of 44 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 27 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Jan Błachowicz, noting his experience, Polish power, and solid wrestling. He argues that Jan's recent losses are to elite competition and that he arguably won some of them. He compares the two as similar fighters but gives Jan the edge due to his chin holding up at 42. However, he advises against betting on Jan at -145 due to the risk of Guskov's power.
Big Brady picks Jan Błachowicz despite his age (42), citing his superior striking, volume, durability, cardio, and grappling. He pokes holes in Guskov's wins, noting they came against lower-level opponents. He expects Błachowicz to win by decision, but acknowledges age is a concern.
Cody picks Jan, trusting his chin and experience. He notes that Jan has fought and nearly beaten top competition like Pereira and Ulberg. He believes Jan's wrestling and submission threat will be factors, and he likes Jan by submission at plus 765. He thinks Guskov's wins are over lower-level opponents.
Connor picks Błachowicz, citing his low kicks and jab as effective tools against Guskov's boxing-heavy style. He notes that Guskov was submitted by Volkan Oezdemir, indicating a vulnerability to wrestling, and Błachowicz has strong top control and submissions. Connor acknowledges that Błachowicz has lost speed and the 'Błachowicz blitz,' but believes his range tools and wrestling will be enough. He doesn't want to watch it but wants Jan to win.
Daniel picks Guskov as a dog, acknowledging Jan's technical edge but fearing Jan's age (42) and recent decline. He thinks Guskov's brawling style and power could catch Jan, who may be nearing a drop-off. He notes Jan's calf kicks and takedowns as threats but believes Guskov's youth and momentum make him a live underdog.
Lucrative James argues that Jan Błachowicz is superior in every facet of MMA—striking, grappling, cardio, and fight IQ. He notes Jan's recent close fights against top competition (Alex Pereira, Carlos Ulberg) and his high-altitude training camp. He believes Guskov's only path to victory is an early knockout, but Jan's durability and experience should carry him to a decision win.
The host acknowledges Guskov's rise but believes he will struggle against the more experienced Błachowicz. Despite Błachowicz's age and recent struggles, the host expects him to mix up his game, land takedowns, and possibly secure a submission.
Paul agrees, highlighting Jan's durability and high-level experience. He notes that Jan has gone the distance with champions and has a well-rounded game. He believes Guskov's competition is weak and that Jan will outwork him. He also mentions Jan's submission ability.
The Guru picks Jan Błachowicz over Bogdan Guskov, citing Błachowicz's experience and technical edge. He notes Błachowicz nearly beat Alex Pereira and has faced top competition. The Guru predicts a clear decision or late TKO.
Zane also picks Błachowicz, emphasizing that Guskov's wins have come against a weak run of fighters and that Krylov's chin is gone. He notes that Błachowicz hasn't been finished and has the wrestling to exploit Guskov's takedown defense. Zane believes Guskov's wild boxing style leaves him open to low kicks and takedowns, and Błachowicz's experience and strength will carry him to a decision or submission.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 59 of 131 | 45% | 59 of 131 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Carlos Ulberg | 0 | 75 of 157 | 47% | 75 of 157 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 18 of 31 | 58% | 18 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Carlos Ulberg | 0 | 15 of 32 | 46% | 15 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 16 of 33 | 48% | 16 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Carlos Ulberg | 0 | 29 of 60 | 48% | 29 of 60 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 | |
| 3 | Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 25 of 67 | 37% | 25 of 67 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Carlos Ulberg | 0 | 31 of 65 | 47% | 31 of 65 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan Błachowicz | 59 of 131 | 45% | 17 of 67 | 10 of 26 | 32 of 38 | 59 of 131 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlos Ulberg | 75 of 157 | 47% | 19 of 87 | 6 of 15 | 50 of 55 | 74 of 156 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jan Błachowicz | 18 of 31 | 58% | 3 of 11 | 1 of 4 | 14 of 16 | 18 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlos Ulberg | 15 of 32 | 46% | 2 of 16 | 1 of 4 | 12 of 12 | 15 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jan Błachowicz | 16 of 33 | 48% | 6 of 16 | 2 of 8 | 8 of 9 | 16 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlos Ulberg | 29 of 60 | 48% | 6 of 30 | 3 of 7 | 20 of 23 | 28 of 59 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jan Błachowicz | 25 of 67 | 37% | 8 of 40 | 7 of 14 | 10 of 13 | 25 of 67 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlos Ulberg | 31 of 65 | 47% | 11 of 41 | 2 of 4 | 18 of 20 | 31 of 65 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Carlos Ulberg, citing Jan Błachowicz's age (42) and lack of recent wins over light heavyweights. He notes that Jan's wins are mostly over middleweights and his last win was due to a freak injury. He acknowledges Ulberg didn't look great in his last fight but believes he will be too fast and too young. He mentions a text argument with Jacob about this fight.
Brady thinks Blachowicz is old (42), coming off injuries and layoff, and likely not the same fighter. He predicts Ulberg wins by decision. However, he notes the line is silly and if Blachowicz looks healthy without knee sleeves, he might take a small bet on him.
Connor picks Jan, sticking with the old man despite the risks. He argues Jan has been an unsolvable puzzle for most light heavyweights due to his compact defense, counter-punching, and leg kicks. He hasn't seen Jan decline yet and believes his experience and durability will carry him, though he admits the layoff and age are concerns.
The host leans with Ulberg's striking advantage, noting Błachowicz is coming back from injury, a long layoff, and is 42 years old. He expects Ulberg to shut down takedowns, touch him up on the feet, and win on the scorecards.
The Guru confidently picks Jan Błachowicz, despite his age and surgeries, because he believes Błachowicz is a much better striker than Ulberg's previous opponents. He notes that Ulberg struggled against OSP and Devin Clark, while Błachowicz has beaten top competition. He expects Błachowicz to out-strike Ulberg, especially in a three-round fight at sea level, and sees value in Błachowicz as a nearly 3-to-1 underdog.
Zane picks Ulberg, citing Jan's age (42), long layoff, and shoulder injury as major concerns. He believes Ulberg's speed, jab, and improving striking can overwhelm Jan, especially in a three-round fight. However, he acknowledges Jan's durability, leg kicks, and counter-punching make him dangerous, and Ulberg's inconsistency could cost him.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Pereira | 0 | 52 of 81 | 64% | 82 of 117 | 3 of 8 | 37% | 2 | 0 | 7:32 |
| Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 70 of 92 | 76% | 112 of 138 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:06 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alex Pereira | 0 | 6 of 6 | 100% | 17 of 17 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 2 | 0 | 4:50 |
| Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 12 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Alex Pereira | 0 | 20 of 29 | 68% | 32 of 43 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:57 |
| Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 33 of 47 | 70% | 54 of 69 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 | |
| 3 | Alex Pereira | 0 | 26 of 46 | 56% | 33 of 57 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:45 |
| Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 35 of 42 | 83% | 46 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Pereira | 52 of 81 | 64% | 41 of 66 | 4 of 8 | 7 of 7 | 41 of 67 | 3 of 5 | 8 of 9 |
| Jan Błachowicz | 70 of 92 | 76% | 26 of 46 | 23 of 24 | 21 of 22 | 62 of 83 | 7 of 8 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alex Pereira | 6 of 6 | 100% | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 5 |
| Jan Błachowicz | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Alex Pereira | 20 of 29 | 68% | 15 of 21 | 2 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 16 of 24 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 |
| Jan Błachowicz | 33 of 47 | 70% | 13 of 25 | 10 of 11 | 10 of 11 | 28 of 41 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Alex Pereira | 26 of 46 | 56% | 20 of 39 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 4 | 24 of 42 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 2 |
| Jan Błachowicz | 35 of 42 | 83% | 12 of 19 | 13 of 13 | 10 of 10 | 33 of 40 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Blachowicz (-125), Pereira (+105)
Round 1
The year is 2023, and for the second time in the last several months, there is no light heavyweight champion in the UFC. Once the glamour division, a litany of injuries and vacated belts left the throne unclaimed. This 205-pound clash will not be for the vacant strap, as some had expected, and instead will take place across three rounds. The victor will be sitting pretty for that next available opening, and former kingpin Blachowicz (29-9-1, 12-6-1 UFC) and ex-middleweight champ Pereira (7-2, 4-1 UFC) are positively salivating at the opportunity that awaits the triumphant man tonight. Referee Marc Goddard is on high alert for the next 15 minutes or less, although it has no bad blood so he can breathe a slight sigh of relief. The hulking light heavyweights bump fists, and they swat at one another with quick punches. Blachowicz ducks down in pursuit of a single, and he lifts Pereira’s leg up but cannot hold him down. Pereira keeps his back to the wall and wraps an arm around the neck, and he cinches his other arm around and fastens the grip to make it excruciatingly tight early. The Polish fighter is not remotely concerned, and he re-adjusts himself to drop down low enough to thwart the choke. Blachowicz leans heavily on his man while he doggedly pursues a single, and he uses heel strikes to the back of Blachowicz’ thigh and calf. Blachowicz imposes his weight on his man, and he manages to drag Pereira to the mat. Blachowicz snakes his legs around the waist to get hold of the body triangle, and he is quick to set up a rear-naked choke. The grip is on the chin and not beneath it, so Blachowicz changes his hands to try to slide it in. Pereira hand-fights to stop the choke, but Blachowicz is still on his back with his body lock tight. Blachowicz tries to keep himself leaned against the fence to stop Pereira from sliding him out the back door, and he lands one single strike before looking to put his right arm around the head. The Brazilian keeps himself out of submission danger, and he lowers himself down to puts himself in a worse position than before. Blachowicz gets the choke again, and he nearly flattens Pereira out. Pereira once more protects his neck, so Blachowicz decides to smack him upside the head with any free hand. Blachowicz keeps the lock tight around the waist, even as he cannot get the choke, and he elects to ride out the round in this dominant position.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz
Round 2
The 205ers do not decide to touch gloves to engage this round, and Blachowicz is in the center of the cage immediately and he backs off to dodge a jab and check a leg kick. Blachowicz jabs the body in response, and Pereira sits down on a low kick. Blachowicz responds in kind, and Pereira gets off a solid body shot. Blachowicz intercepts the kickboxer with a short left hook, and Blachowicz flicks out several jabs. Blachowicz turns his shin to prevent a low kick from getting through, and Pereira marks the body with another straight punch. Blachowicz responds with his own body shot, and they both jab one another. Pereira sweeps the leg with a hard calf kick, and Blachowicz has to take a step to shake it out. Pereira lands another, and Blachowicz steps in with a hard left hook. Blachowicz follows it with a right hand, and Pereira is able to shake it out but overswings and opens himself up. This allows the Polish fighter to secure a double, where he plants Pereira on his back. Blachowicz stays heavy on top and opens up with a few strikes, and “Poatan” responds with a sharp elbow that gets through. Pereira tries to scoot himself to the fence in order to fight his way back to his feet, and he succeeds in getting to a knee and then standing. Pereira sneaks in short knees as Blachowicz continues to press on him, and Blachowicz gives him a stern knee to the solar plexus as he holds on. Pereira suddenly spins out quickly, and he appears the fresher fighter as he tosses out a head kick that Blachowicz barely blocks. Pereira comes at him with a body shot, and Blachowicz responds with a left over the top. Pereira stings Blachowicz with a left hook, and Blachowicz charges with a takedown that fails. Blachowicz backs off when he gets popped with a right, and the two tie up again with 40 seconds remaining. They both get in knees, and Pereira breaks off with two uppercuts and a body shot. Pereira corners his man and starts teeing off on him with short but dangerous shots, and Blachowicz leans back against the fence and is taking damage. Blachowicz responds with one left hook, and he takes a very heavy breath. Pereira lands two right hands, and Blachowicz drops down to shoot in but time expires.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Pereira
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Pereira
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Pereira
Round 3
The body language could scarcely look more different between the two, as Blachowicz is clearly spent while Pereira is psyched up. Both fighters come together to engage in the last round, and Blachowicz lumbers forward kicking low. Blachowicz is just able to avoid a massive uppercut, and the two trade jabs. Pereira batters his foe’s lead calf, which is nastily welted. Blachowicz musters his energy with a pair of punches and a body kick, and Pereira replies with a stern calf kick to the same spot. Pereira jabs the body, and he peppers the lead wheel. Blachowicz blitzes him with a few hooks, and Pereira shrugs at him. Pereira walks down his foe instead of attacking recklessly, and he takes a solid low kick as he come forward. Pereira gives him a jab to think about, and he parries a few punches that come his way. Blachowicz tries to check a kick, and he absorbs a flush right hand to the midsection. Blachowicz huffs and puffs and still reaches his foe with a left over the top, and Pereira beats him to the punch with a few punches right back at him. Blachowicz scores a clean left hand, and he shoots in for a takedown. Pereira stands him up but gets shoved back to the wall, although he is able to stave Blachowicz off. Blachowicz scores a left on the break, and he dings Pereira with another left hand. Blachowicz snaps the head back with a jab, and he charges forward but misses with two strikes. Blachowicz sits down on a leg kick, and the shins crack together. Both men land flush with blows, and Pereira hits the harder of the two and makes Blachowicz nod at him. Blachowicz walks through a left hook and eats a jab to the body, and he races forward swinging hands. Pereira stuffs a takedown, and the Brazilian makes him pay with a few punches. With 45 seconds left in the fight, Blachowicz is able to grab Pereira’s leg and sling him to the mat. When he lands in full guard, Blachowicz sits on top and looks for any energy he has to land strikes. Stacking Pereira up with seconds to spare, Blachowicz drops down hammerfists and concludes the fight on top. This one goes the distance, and it could be an extremely close one depending on how the final round was scored.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz (29-28 Blachowicz)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Pereira (29-28 Pereira)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Pereira (29-28 Pereira)
The Official Result
Alex Pereira def. Jan Blachowicz via Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
Angelo picks Alex Pereira but with hesitation, acknowledging that Jan's takedowns are a threat. He believes Pereira is the more technical striker with possibly more power, and that he will be fine defending takedowns or getting back up. However, he is worried about Pereira's chin after being knocked out three months ago. He is not betting on this fight but will look at props like most significant strikes.
Big Brady picks Jan Błachowicz to win by second-round submission. He emphasizes Błachowicz's grappling advantage, noting he took down Israel Adesanya and controlled him. He criticizes Pereira's ground game, which looked poor against Adesanya. He hopes Błachowicz fights smart and uses wrestling, but is not 100% sure he will. If he does, it's an easy win.
Cody picks Błachowicz based on the takedown threat, noting Pereira's mediocre takedown defense and Błachowicz's success against Israel Adesanya by taking him down. He believes if Błachowicz gets top control, Pereira won't get up. He mentions the over 2 takedowns prop for Błachowicz. He hasn't bet it but is confident in the pick.
James picks Jan but with low confidence, citing volatility from Pereira's weight jump, recent knockout loss, and Jan's age. He thinks Jan is an underrated striker with good leg kicks and can compete on the feet, but he also notes Jan is hittable with the left hook. He believes Jan's path to victory includes takedowns, but he cannot guarantee Jan will wrestle.
Blachowicz's underrated striking and ability to take the fight to the ground will be the difference. He can survive Pereira's power and find his way into the pocket to grind him out. Pereira hasn't faced someone of Blachowicz's size and grappling. I'm leaning Blachowicz by submission late, but not a lot of conviction.
Paul picks Pereira, citing Błachowicz's age (40) and lack of recent wrestling success—only one takedown in his last nine fights (against Adesanya). He argues Błachowicz is not a high-level wrestler and fights at a slow pace, which plays into Pereira's striking. He notes Pereira's training with Glover Teixeira and improved takedown defense. He sees value at plus money.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 55 of 117 | 47% | 79 of 141 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 78 of 184 | 42% | 191 of 312 | 2 of 10 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 11:20 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 14 of 35 | 40% | 14 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 19 of 43 | 44% | 19 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 23 of 43 | 53% | 23 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 13 of 37 | 35% | 23 of 47 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:32 | |
| 3 | Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 17 of 34 | 50% | 18 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 18 of 48 | 37% | 40 of 70 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 1:26 | |
| 4 | Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 11 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 10 of 19 | 52% | 55 of 70 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 4:32 | |
| 5 | Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 13 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 18 of 37 | 48% | 54 of 82 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 4:50 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan Błachowicz | 55 of 117 | 47% | 19 of 71 | 11 of 17 | 25 of 29 | 50 of 109 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 1 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 78 of 184 | 42% | 49 of 139 | 19 of 33 | 10 of 12 | 50 of 134 | 6 of 8 | 22 of 42 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jan Błachowicz | 14 of 35 | 40% | 3 of 20 | 4 of 8 | 7 of 7 | 14 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 19 of 43 | 44% | 10 of 28 | 7 of 12 | 2 of 3 | 19 of 43 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jan Błachowicz | 23 of 43 | 53% | 10 of 27 | 3 of 4 | 10 of 12 | 18 of 36 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 13 of 37 | 35% | 7 of 24 | 2 of 8 | 4 of 5 | 13 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jan Błachowicz | 17 of 34 | 50% | 5 of 19 | 4 of 5 | 8 of 10 | 17 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 18 of 48 | 37% | 10 of 37 | 6 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 16 of 44 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 1 | |
| 4 | Jan Błachowicz | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 10 of 19 | 52% | 4 of 13 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 8 | 4 of 5 | 5 of 6 | |
| 5 | Jan Błachowicz | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 18 of 37 | 48% | 18 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 17 of 35 |
Angelo is very confident in Ankalaev, calling him the most complete fighter in the division with methodical, technical striking and wrestling. He believes Błachowicz's only chance is to land a big shot in close range, but Ankalaev's length, accuracy, and control will prevent that. He considers Ankalaev at -255 incredible value.
Big Brady picks Magomed Ankalaev, citing his wrestling as the key difference. He notes Błachowicz has poor getup game once taken down, and Ankalaev will mix in takedowns to win rounds. He expects a competitive but boring fight on the feet, with Ankalaev winning by decision. He expresses disappointment in the matchup.
Cody picks Ankalaev, believing he is better in all facets and the number one guy in the division. He notes Ankalaev's high fight IQ, cardio, durability, and ability to adapt to opponents. He thinks Jan is older and his body is deteriorating, citing the Glover fight where Jan tapped quickly to a neck crank. Cody sees Ankalaev winning inside the distance, possibly in rounds 3-5, as Jan fades.
Connor picks Błachowicz as a flyer, believing Ankalaev will wait too long to wrestle, which could be fatal against a striker as good and defensively sound as Błachowicz. He notes Błachowicz's jab, footwork, and counterpunching will trouble Ankalaev, and that Ankalaev's single-strike approach plays into Błachowicz's hands. However, he acknowledges Ankalaev could dominate if he wrestles early.
Daniel Levi picks Magomed Ankalaev to win the vacant light heavyweight title. He emphasizes Ankalaev's patient, risk-averse style that frustrates opponents and his southpaw stance with a nasty counter right hook. Levi notes that Jan Błachowicz tends to attack in a straight line, which plays into Ankalaev's counters, and that Ankalaev can mix in takedowns from his Greco-Roman background. He acknowledges Błachowicz's power and body kicks but believes Ankalaev is defensively sound enough to avoid big moments and will win a decision, likely 4-1. Levi placed a 2-unit bet on Ankalaev at -250.
Lock is confident in Ankalaev, having bet him as his lock of the week at -255. He believes Ankalaev is that much better than Błachowicz and will rule the light heavyweight division for years. From a PredictionStrike perspective, he thinks $5.26 is not too late to buy in, as Ankalaev has longevity and could reach $8-9 after defending the belt. He recommends holding onto the stock long-term rather than selling immediately.
Paul picks Ankalaev, noting he is a minus 255 favorite and that he believes Ankalaev is better in all facets. He struggles with Ankalaev's tendency to fight safe and not always press for finishes, making it hard to bet props. He thinks Ankalaev wins but is not confident in the moneyline at that price, considering a parlay or prop instead.
The MMA Guru picks Magomed Ankalaev over Jan Błachowicz by decision. He believes Ankalaev will be patient at range, use front kicks and jabs, and mix in takedowns after making Błachowicz hesitant. He notes Ankalaev's experience over five rounds and his ability to drain opponents, predicting a 49-46 decision where Ankalaev loses the first round but dominates later rounds.
Zane picks Ankalaev, citing his durability, patience, and power. He believes Ankalaev will find a moment to take Błachowicz down and win three rounds, as Błachowicz has historically struggled against takedown artists. Zane trusts Ankalaev to be consistent enough to capitalize on opportunities.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 31 of 71 | 43% | 53 of 94 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Aleksandar Rakić | 0 | 27 of 85 | 31% | 61 of 125 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 4:33 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 25 of 53 | 47% | 25 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Aleksandar Rakić | 0 | 12 of 52 | 23% | 12 of 52 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 23 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Aleksandar Rakić | 0 | 10 of 19 | 52% | 44 of 59 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 4:33 | |
| 3 | Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 5 of 15 | 33% | 5 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Aleksandar Rakić | 0 | 5 of 14 | 35% | 5 of 14 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan Błachowicz | 31 of 71 | 43% | 8 of 31 | 9 of 21 | 14 of 19 | 31 of 69 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Aleksandar Rakić | 27 of 85 | 31% | 14 of 60 | 2 of 9 | 11 of 16 | 17 of 70 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 15 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jan Błachowicz | 25 of 53 | 47% | 7 of 24 | 6 of 14 | 12 of 15 | 25 of 51 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Aleksandar Rakić | 12 of 52 | 23% | 1 of 32 | 1 of 8 | 10 of 12 | 12 of 52 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jan Błachowicz | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Aleksandar Rakić | 10 of 19 | 52% | 10 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 15 | |
| 3 | Jan Błachowicz | 5 of 15 | 33% | 1 of 6 | 2 of 6 | 2 of 3 | 5 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Aleksandar Rakić | 5 of 14 | 35% | 3 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Cody leans toward Rakić but is hesitant due to the price. He notes that Jan Błachowicz has a good body of work, striking, and takedown ability, but is concerned about a potential neck injury from the Glover fight. He thinks Rakić is young and hungry, but the value isn't there at -195, and he can't pull the trigger on the dog because he believes Jan is damaged goods.
Paul is undecided, calling it a dogger pass. He acknowledges a case for Rakić's wrestling not being tested and Jan's fantastic chin and cardio. He wants to wait for weigh-ins and interviews before making a pick. He leans toward Jan as a live dog if he drags Rakić into deep waters and takes him down multiple times.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Glover Teixeira | 0 | 28 of 45 | 62% | 53 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 23 of 39 | 58% | 71 of 93 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 2 | 0 | 5:17 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Glover Teixeira | 0 | 6 of 8 | 75% | 29 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 10 of 15 | 66% | 51 of 61 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 4:29 | |
| 2 | Glover Teixeira | 0 | 22 of 37 | 59% | 24 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 13 of 24 | 54% | 20 of 32 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 | 0 | 0:48 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Glover Teixeira | 28 of 45 | 62% | 20 of 37 | 6 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 26 of 43 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Jan Błachowicz | 23 of 39 | 58% | 17 of 33 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 14 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Glover Teixeira | 6 of 8 | 75% | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Jan Błachowicz | 10 of 15 | 66% | 9 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 11 | |
| 2 | Glover Teixeira | 22 of 37 | 59% | 16 of 31 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 21 of 36 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Jan Błachowicz | 13 of 24 | 54% | 8 of 19 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
Big Brady picks Jan Błachowicz to win by knockout. He believes Jan is the better striker and will hurt Glover, who is chinny at 42. Glover's path is takedowns, but Jan has excellent takedown defense (only taken down once in last 10 fights). He expects Jan to be calculated and not rush in, eventually knocking Glover out. He references Jan's performance against Adesanya.
Cody agrees Jan wins but disagrees on finish, thinking Jan is more of a decision fighter. He notes Jan's solid takedown defense, BJJ black belt, and cardio. He picks Jan but sees the fight going over 2.5 rounds, possibly a decision. He mentions Jan by decision is +300 but he's not confident in a finish.
Daniel picks Jan Błachowicz to defend his title, citing Jan's improved accuracy, timing, and ability to mix strikes and takedowns. He notes Jan's career turnaround and his wins over top competition like Dominick Reyes and Israel Adesanya. Daniel acknowledges Glover's dangerous ground game and toughness but believes Jan's composure and polish power will lead to a knockout. He emphasizes that Jan is a black belt and won't panic if Glover gets top position.
Błachowicz has Polish power and solid cardio, and he can stuff takedowns. Teixeira is slow and has been hurt in recent fights, relying on takedowns to bail him out. Błachowicz will find a knockout on the feet, likely in the first round.
Paul picks Jan Błachowicz by knockout, citing Jan's 'Polish power' and Glover's compromised chin. He notes Glover has been stunned in recent fights and thinks over five rounds Jan will crack that chin. He mentions the bet is a small play at +100 by KO, not a massive one.
The MMA Guru picks Jan Błachowicz to win by KO in the first round. He notes that Glover Teixeira is 41, takes damage in every fight, and has been dropped multiple times. He praises Błachowicz's takedown defense, finishing instinct, and reach advantage. He contrasts Błachowicz's composed finishing (separating and dropping hammer fists) with other opponents who rushed in and gave up position. He predicts Błachowicz will rock Glover, separate, and finish with hammer fists.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 107 of 193 | 55% | 184 of 276 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 7:06 |
| Israel Adesanya | 0 | 78 of 161 | 48% | 99 of 182 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 18 of 31 | 58% | 18 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Israel Adesanya | 0 | 13 of 30 | 43% | 13 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 23 of 49 | 46% | 23 of 49 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Israel Adesanya | 0 | 21 of 42 | 50% | 21 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 24 of 42 | 57% | 28 of 46 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:07 |
| Israel Adesanya | 0 | 21 of 40 | 52% | 34 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 | |
| 4 | Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 14 of 24 | 58% | 51 of 64 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:29 |
| Israel Adesanya | 0 | 11 of 20 | 55% | 15 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 28 of 47 | 59% | 64 of 86 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:30 |
| Israel Adesanya | 0 | 12 of 29 | 41% | 16 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan Błachowicz | 107 of 193 | 55% | 67 of 146 | 29 of 33 | 11 of 14 | 85 of 169 | 6 of 6 | 16 of 18 |
| Israel Adesanya | 78 of 161 | 48% | 32 of 102 | 17 of 23 | 29 of 36 | 77 of 158 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jan Błachowicz | 18 of 31 | 58% | 3 of 13 | 7 of 7 | 8 of 11 | 18 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Israel Adesanya | 13 of 30 | 43% | 2 of 14 | 3 of 4 | 8 of 12 | 13 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jan Błachowicz | 23 of 49 | 46% | 9 of 33 | 12 of 14 | 2 of 2 | 22 of 48 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Israel Adesanya | 21 of 42 | 50% | 5 of 23 | 7 of 8 | 9 of 11 | 21 of 42 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jan Błachowicz | 24 of 42 | 57% | 18 of 34 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 20 of 38 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Israel Adesanya | 21 of 40 | 52% | 12 of 30 | 4 of 4 | 5 of 6 | 21 of 39 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Jan Błachowicz | 14 of 24 | 58% | 12 of 22 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 5 |
| Israel Adesanya | 11 of 20 | 55% | 8 of 15 | 1 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | |
| 5 | Jan Błachowicz | 28 of 47 | 59% | 25 of 44 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 17 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 13 |
| Israel Adesanya | 12 of 29 | 41% | 5 of 20 | 2 of 4 | 5 of 5 | 12 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Adesanya based on speed, footwork, and counter-striking ability. He notes that Adesanya walks around light (193 lbs) to stay fast and quick, and will use his range to frustrate Błachowicz. He acknowledges Błachowicz's power and ground game but believes Adesanya's movement and counters will be decisive.
Big Brady picks Israel Adesanya, citing his massive speed and volume advantages. He doubts Błachowicz can close the distance or get takedowns, noting Błachowicz hasn't attempted takedowns in recent fights. He predicts a kickboxing fight and likes the over 2.5 rounds. He would bet Adesanya if the line drops to -190.
Daniel picks Israel Adesanya to win and become a two-division champion, citing his speed, technique, and diverse striking. He acknowledges Jan Błachowicz's power and puncher's chance but believes Adesanya's skill set will be too much.
Jacob picks Adesanya because he thinks Adesanya has the best walk-in dance he's ever seen, referencing the fight against Robert Whittaker. This is a lighthearted reason, but he clearly states his pick.
Adesanya's striking wizardry and calf kicks should be key, but Błachowicz has power and a black belt in jiu-jitsu. The host expects a tough fight and predicts a late stoppage (4th or 5th round) for Adesanya, but advises caution due to Błachowicz's power.
The MMA Guru picks Israel Adesanya to win by TKO in the third or fourth round. He believes Adesanya's striking precision and speed will be too much for Błachowicz, who is flat-footed and loads up his kicks. He predicts Adesanya will chop at the legs early, frustrate Błachowicz, and catch him rushing in with a counter hook, similar to how Thiago Santos finished him.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 21 of 51 | 41% | 21 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Dominick Reyes | 1 | 41 of 89 | 46% | 41 of 89 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 10 of 20 | 50% | 10 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Dominick Reyes | 0 | 15 of 36 | 41% | 15 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 11 of 31 | 35% | 11 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Dominick Reyes | 1 | 26 of 53 | 49% | 26 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan Błachowicz | 21 of 51 | 41% | 9 of 35 | 2 of 5 | 10 of 11 | 21 of 51 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Dominick Reyes | 41 of 89 | 46% | 25 of 70 | 6 of 9 | 10 of 10 | 37 of 83 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jan Błachowicz | 10 of 20 | 50% | 3 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 7 | 10 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Dominick Reyes | 15 of 36 | 41% | 2 of 22 | 5 of 6 | 8 of 8 | 15 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jan Błachowicz | 11 of 31 | 35% | 6 of 23 | 1 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 11 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Dominick Reyes | 26 of 53 | 49% | 23 of 48 | 1 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 22 of 47 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 4 |
Big Brady picks Reyes, citing his higher output and better striking. He downplays Błachowicz's power, noting he has only three knockouts since 2011 and those were against chinny opponents. He believes Reyes' takedown defense and durability will carry him to a third-round knockout.
Daniel Levi slightly edges Dominick Reyes because he gave Jon Jones a tough fight, but he is not confident at the current price. He notes Jan Błachowicz is underrated and has shown improvements, and that Reyes has a cringey attitude and may be underestimating Błachowicz. He calls it a dog-or-pass situation and suggests betting Błachowicz at plus money.
The host picks Jan Błachowicz as an underdog, citing his experience, durability, and ability to make the fight dirty. He believes Reyes may fade in later rounds as he did against Jones, and that Błachowicz can grind out a decision. He notes that the line is too wide and that Błachowicz has a better chance than the odds suggest.
The MMA Guru picks Dominick Reyes, citing his win over Jon Jones (though a loss on record) and his style of using range and oblique kicks. He thinks Reyes will catch Błachowicz moving backwards in the first or second round with a big shot, similar to how Santos did. He notes Błachowicz's power is overrated as he KO'd Luke Rockhold and Corey Anderson, who are easy to KO.
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