Career Averages - Damir Ismagulov
Career Averages - Joel Alvarez
Damir Ismagulov - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grant Dawson | 0 | 13 of 28 | 46% | 35 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:08 |
| Damir Ismagulov | 0 | 30 of 57 | 52% | 84 of 128 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 1 | 0 | 12:24 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Grant Dawson | 0 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Damir Ismagulov | 0 | 23 of 35 | 65% | 44 of 57 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:55 | |
| 2 | Grant Dawson | 0 | 10 of 18 | 55% | 14 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Damir Ismagulov | 0 | 5 of 18 | 27% | 22 of 38 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 3:57 | |
| 3 | Grant Dawson | 0 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 17 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:03 |
| Damir Ismagulov | 0 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 18 of 33 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 4:32 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grant Dawson | 13 of 28 | 46% | 6 of 19 | 6 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Damir Ismagulov | 30 of 57 | 52% | 28 of 48 | 1 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 35 | 1 of 1 | 20 of 21 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Grant Dawson | 2 of 6 | 33% | 1 of 3 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Damir Ismagulov | 23 of 35 | 65% | 21 of 30 | 1 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 18 of 19 | |
| 2 | Grant Dawson | 10 of 18 | 55% | 5 of 13 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Damir Ismagulov | 5 of 18 | 27% | 5 of 14 | 0 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | |
| 3 | Grant Dawson | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Damir Ismagulov | 2 of 4 | 50% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Ismagulov (-115), Dawson (-105)
Round 1
We have reached the co-main attraction, which takes place at 155 pounds between fringe contenders and exceptional grapplers Ismagulov (24-2, 5-1 UFC) and Dawson (19-1-1, 7-0-1 UFC). The former has gone the distance in six of his last seven, while Dawson has prevailed in six of his last seven – Ismagulov can say the same there as well. The two lightweights show ample respect as they shake hands in front of referee Herb Dean, and Ismagulov is the one pressure out of the gate. Dawson flings a left hand and a kick to make Ismagulov think twice, and he dives low for a single that is easily stuffed. Dawson wings a left hook that misses the mark, and Ismagulov skates to the side from a jab and clips Dawson with a right hand. Dawson throws right back with a left hook, and he digs a right hand to the body. Dawson snatches up the Russian’s leg and secures the single, and he succeeds in planting Ismagulov on his back. Dawson, in half guard, drops down a single left hand. Ismagulov turns over and gives up his back as he looks to escape, and Dawson follows him and wraps up a rear-naked choke. The arms cannot find the neck or even the chin, and Ismagulov fights the grip as he finds himself trapped in a body triangle. Ismagulov is warned for grabbing the inside of Dawson’s gloves to fight the hands, and Dawson stretches him out with the body triangle. Ismagulov tries to turn through it, and he sits up only to get pulled back down and his mouth covered. Dawson frustrates him with a combination of the body lock, mouth covering and hand-fighting, and Ismagulov turns to the side to shake off the leglock around his midsection. Dawson readjusts his leg grip on the body, and Ismagulov sways from side to side. Dawson locks down on a rear-naked choke with one of Ismagulov’s arms between his head and the choke grip, and Ismagulov fights out of it and turns around to his knees. Dawson stays tightly pressed to him, following him every step of the way and opening up with right hands when he has Ismagulov stuck on his side. Ismagulov turns frantically, and Dawson keeps a very high hook around the chest even as Ismagulov bucks him like a bronco. Ismagulov turns to his back again, and he rides out the round without being tapped.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Dawson
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Dawson
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-8 Dawson
Round 2
The lightweights clap hands, and as Ismagulov is coming out of his corner, he is wincing and closing his right eye. Both fighters swing haymakers at the other, and Ismagulov catches Dawson with a left and a right. Dawson lifts up a knee, but Ismagulov does not walk into it. Instead, Ismagulov snaps the head back with a jab, and a straight right hand sends Dawson backpedaling. Dawson drops down, grabs hold of both of Ismagulov’s legs, picks him up like a 155-pound sack of potatoes and gingerly deposits him to the floor. The two end in a very unusual situation, as Ismagulov and Dawson were stuck in an odd north-south position for a moment. Dawson recovers faster to partially wind up on top, but Ismagulov also has his own hands clasped. Dawson slides around to get on top, and he snags Ismagulov’s back to get both hooks in. Dawson recovers his body triangle, and he racks up more back control time as he occasionally softens Ismagulov up with fists upside the head. Ismagulov answers with elbows to the thigh, and he fights a choke setup off but is still stuck in the body triangle. Dawson snakes an arm over the chin but cannot sneak it under it, and he settles for making Ismagulov’s life miserable. The round ends with Dawson hold on from behind, and he helps Ismagulov back to his feet as they return to their corners.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dawson
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Dawson
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Dawson
Round 3
The fighters hug it out to start off the last round, and Ismagulov is urgent to push the action knowing he is likely way down on the scorecards. Dawson slides to the side and pegs Ismagulov with a left hand, and Dawson grabs his foe from behind and elevates him. “KGD” tosses Ismagulov to the ground, and the body triangle is snatched up immediately as he secures back control. Dawson grabs the arm of Ismagulov and torques it back for something more frequently seen in the pro wrestling ring, like a full nelson or a reverse can opener. Ismagulov grits it out, as this is nothing more than an irritation to him, but Dawson is squeezing him and completely nullifying him. Dawson loops punches over the guard that are light and frustrating, and Dean asks for Dawson to work in this back control position. The hand-fighting from Ismagulov stop Dawson from a choke getting anywhere near close, and Dawson tries as hard as he can to even get one arm around the head of his adversary. Dawson switches his body lock from leg to leg as Ismagulov leans to one side or the other, and Ismagulov has no answers. Dawson considers an arm-in rear-naked choke again, and Ismagulov punches from behind to signal to Dawson there is nothing to it. With five seconds to go, Ismagulov explodes to turn himself around, but the fight ends before he can do anything with it. Barring something extremely bizarre, this should be a clean sweep for Dawson. Man, this kid is good.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dawson (30-26 Dawson)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Dawson (30-26 Dawson)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Dawson (30-26 Dawson)
The Official Result
Grant Dawson def. Damir Ismagulov via Unanimous Decision (30-26, 30-27, 30-27)
Angelo picks Damir Ismagulov, citing his well-rounded skills, cardio, and ability to adjust. He believes Damir's striking is light years ahead of Grant Dawson's, and while Dawson is a good wrestler, he's not Arman Tsarukyan. He expects a razor-thin decision but thinks Damir gets it done. He avoids betting due to Damir's lack of finishing ability.
Big Brady picks Grant Dawson to win by decision, but is cautious. He notes Ismagulov has been dealing with injuries and looked off in his last fight, and has announced this is his retirement fight. Dawson has improved at American Top Team, with better striking and cardio. Brady thinks Dawson's wrestling and control will be key, and he can win a close decision, though he warns against being too confident either way.
Cody leans Dawson because of his wrestling and recent improvements, especially taking down Olympic wrestler Mark Madsen twice. He notes Ismagulov's takedown defense was exposed by Arman Tsarukyan (7 takedowns) and that Ismagulov fights to his opponent's level with low volume. Cody also mentions Dawson's cardio has improved, as shown by two straight third-round finishes. He considers it a close fight likely to go to decision.
Daniel picks Ismagulov but with low confidence, hinging on which version shows up after health issues and a brief retirement. He notes Ismagulov's striking is far superior to Dawson's, and if he can stuff takedowns (despite being taken down 7 times by Tsarukyan), he should win easily. However, he is concerned about Ismagulov's health and motivation, and reserves the right to change his pick after weigh-ins. He sees Dawson as a one-dimensional grappler with poor striking, but acknowledges his relentless wrestling and guillotine threat.
James leans towards Ismagulov, believing he should be about a 60% favorite. He thinks Ismagulov's striking is cleaner and that he can defend takedowns well, as he did against Arman Tsarukyan early. He notes Dawson's cardio issues and that Ismagulov's cardio is strong, but he hasn't finished his tape study yet. He also mentions the retirement concern but says if Ismagulov is still the same fighter, he wins.
Paul agrees with Cody, citing Dawson's move to American Top Team and his improved cardio and wrestling. He notes Ismagulov's retirement announcement and return, suggesting lack of motivation. Paul thinks Dawson's pressure and takedowns will be the difference, but acknowledges Ismagulov's cardio and durability.
The Guru picks Damir Ismagulov, citing Grant Dawson's struggle against Ricky Glenn as a huge red flag. He notes Ismagulov's ability to get back up and scrap, and predicts Dawson's takedowns will fail in the second round, leading to Ismagulov landing a straight right hand for a KO. He also criticizes Dawson's chin and teep kicks.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arman Tsarukyan | 0 | 34 of 81 | 41% | 50 of 105 | 7 of 21 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 9:25 |
| Damir Ismagulov | 0 | 36 of 86 | 41% | 51 of 106 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arman Tsarukyan | 0 | 9 of 23 | 39% | 15 of 29 | 1 of 10 | 10% | 0 | 0 | 3:04 |
| Damir Ismagulov | 0 | 13 of 26 | 50% | 24 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 | |
| 2 | Arman Tsarukyan | 0 | 12 of 27 | 44% | 18 of 35 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 3:24 |
| Damir Ismagulov | 0 | 11 of 28 | 39% | 13 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Arman Tsarukyan | 0 | 13 of 31 | 41% | 17 of 41 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 2:57 |
| Damir Ismagulov | 0 | 12 of 32 | 37% | 14 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arman Tsarukyan | 34 of 81 | 41% | 14 of 57 | 12 of 15 | 8 of 9 | 31 of 76 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 |
| Damir Ismagulov | 36 of 86 | 41% | 18 of 60 | 15 of 21 | 3 of 5 | 26 of 74 | 10 of 11 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arman Tsarukyan | 9 of 23 | 39% | 2 of 14 | 3 of 5 | 4 of 4 | 9 of 22 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Damir Ismagulov | 13 of 26 | 50% | 7 of 18 | 4 of 5 | 2 of 3 | 13 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | |
| 2 | Arman Tsarukyan | 12 of 27 | 44% | 7 of 21 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 9 of 23 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 |
| Damir Ismagulov | 11 of 28 | 39% | 6 of 18 | 5 of 9 | 0 of 1 | 7 of 23 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Arman Tsarukyan | 13 of 31 | 41% | 5 of 22 | 6 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 13 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Damir Ismagulov | 12 of 32 | 37% | 5 of 24 | 6 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 26 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Arman Tsarukyan, his guy, hoping the loss to Gamrot helps him improve. He notes that Damir is not the wrestler Gamrot is, so he sees Arman getting takedowns and winning the scrambles. He acknowledges Arman faded in his last fight but this is a three-round fight, which favors him.
Big Brady picks Tsarukyan, citing his elite wrestling and power advantage. He notes Ismagulov has 90% takedown defense but hasn't faced a wrestler like Tsarukyan. He thinks Tsarukyan will mix in takedowns and win a competitive decision. He wants to see Ismagulov's weight cut but leans Tsarukyan.
Cody likes Ismagulov as an underdog because of his well-rounded skills, solid takedown defense, and durability. He thinks Ismagulov can stay on the outside, use his jab, and stifle Tsarukyan's takedowns to win a striking battle. He notes Tsarukyan is still green and was taken down by Gamrot, which raises questions.
Ismagulov is very talented and this should be a 50/50 fight. He didn't show his best in his last two fights due to long layoffs, but this is his second fight in six months, so he should be in better shape. He can be defensively responsible with his grappling and outstrike Tsarukyan on the feet. The line is too wide in favor of Tsarukyan.
Paul picks Tsarukyan, believing he is a top talent with all the skills. He thinks Tsarukyan will land takedowns and is super quick on the feet. He notes Tsarukyan is young and still developing, expecting to see the best version of him. He is not confident enough to bet but picks him.
The MMA Guru picks Arman Tsarukyan over Damir Ismagulov, noting the three-round fight favors Tsarukyan's cardio. He believes Tsarukyan's lead switch kick to the body will be effective against Ismagulov's high guard, and that Ismagulov doesn't have the offensive grappling of Mateusz Gamrot to threaten takedowns. He also thinks Ismagulov took damage in his last fight against Guram Kutateladze. He predicts Tsarukyan's higher fight IQ and youth (26) will lead to a win.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damir Ismagulov | 0 | 79 of 192 | 41% | 83 of 197 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:46 |
| Guram Kutateladze | 0 | 78 of 187 | 41% | 80 of 190 | 1 of 7 | 14% | 0 | 0 | 0:39 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Damir Ismagulov | 0 | 21 of 57 | 36% | 23 of 60 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Guram Kutateladze | 0 | 26 of 63 | 41% | 27 of 65 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:17 | |
| 2 | Damir Ismagulov | 0 | 30 of 65 | 46% | 32 of 67 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
| Guram Kutateladze | 0 | 23 of 58 | 39% | 23 of 58 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 | |
| 3 | Damir Ismagulov | 0 | 28 of 70 | 40% | 28 of 70 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:20 |
| Guram Kutateladze | 0 | 29 of 66 | 43% | 30 of 67 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:20 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damir Ismagulov | 79 of 192 | 41% | 63 of 173 | 14 of 17 | 2 of 2 | 76 of 184 | 3 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Guram Kutateladze | 78 of 187 | 41% | 29 of 129 | 28 of 33 | 21 of 25 | 64 of 170 | 13 of 16 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Damir Ismagulov | 21 of 57 | 36% | 17 of 52 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 19 of 55 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Guram Kutateladze | 26 of 63 | 41% | 13 of 44 | 8 of 11 | 5 of 8 | 20 of 55 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Damir Ismagulov | 30 of 65 | 46% | 22 of 55 | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 30 of 63 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Guram Kutateladze | 23 of 58 | 39% | 7 of 40 | 10 of 11 | 6 of 7 | 20 of 54 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Damir Ismagulov | 28 of 70 | 40% | 24 of 66 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 27 of 66 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Guram Kutateladze | 29 of 66 | 43% | 9 of 45 | 10 of 11 | 10 of 10 | 24 of 61 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 |
Angelo picks Guram Kutateladze, citing his powerful striking, kicks, and submission threats. He notes that even when taken down, Kutateladze is active on the ground and can work back up. He believes Kutateladze will frustrate Ismagulov both on feet and ground. He suggests betting on Kutateladze moneyline or safety net bets like 'wins inside distance decision no action' or plus 3.5 rounds.
Big Brady picks Damir Ismagulov to win by decision, contingent on a good weight cut. He notes Ismagulov has excellent fight IQ, volume, and striking defense, while Kutateladze is powerful but low volume. He expects Ismagulov to be the minute winner on the feet and can mix in takedowns. He expresses concern about Ismagulov's weight cut and past eye issue.
Cody picks Ismagulov, citing his technical striking, excellent chin, and wrestling defense. He notes Kutateladze's cardio issues and two-year layoff, and believes Ismagulov will outpoint him over three rounds. He suggests Ismagulov by decision as a prop.
Daniel Levi is confident in Damir Ismagulov, praising his elite striking defense (1.9 strikes absorbed per minute), 100% takedown defense, and sharp boxing. He believes Ismagulov is a potential top-five talent and will outpoint Guram Kutateladze, who is tough but less polished. Levi notes Kutateladze's kicking game is dangerous, but thinks Ismagulov's fight IQ and experience will carry him to a unanimous decision. He is considering a bet on Ismagulov.
Paul picks Kutateladze as a dog, noting his training with Khamzat Chimaev and his power. He thinks Kutateladze can walk through Ismagulov's shots and land heavier strikes. He grabbed the line at +150 and believes the volume difference will be close, giving the edge to the Georgian.
The MMA Guru picks Guram Kutateladze, calling it risky. He notes Kutateladze is younger and more explosive, with good body kicks and skills off his back. He believes Damir Ismagulov has looked worse since his return, struggling against Rafael Alves. He thinks Kutateladze has a higher chance of a finish and will push the pace in later rounds, though he acknowledges Ismagulov is a good underdog.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damir Ismagulov | 1 | 30 of 63 | 47% | 36 of 69 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:16 |
| Rafael Alves | 0 | 56 of 126 | 44% | 141 of 220 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 7:40 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Damir Ismagulov | 1 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Rafael Alves | 0 | 17 of 23 | 73% | 68 of 81 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 4:46 | |
| 2 | Damir Ismagulov | 0 | 12 of 26 | 46% | 12 of 26 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Rafael Alves | 0 | 24 of 66 | 36% | 50 of 94 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:10 | |
| 3 | Damir Ismagulov | 0 | 16 of 30 | 53% | 20 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
| Rafael Alves | 0 | 15 of 37 | 40% | 23 of 45 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:44 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damir Ismagulov | 30 of 63 | 47% | 20 of 50 | 6 of 7 | 4 of 6 | 28 of 59 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 2 |
| Rafael Alves | 56 of 126 | 44% | 30 of 91 | 16 of 24 | 10 of 11 | 37 of 104 | 0 of 0 | 19 of 22 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Damir Ismagulov | 2 of 7 | 28% | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 |
| Rafael Alves | 17 of 23 | 73% | 4 of 9 | 7 of 8 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 17 of 20 | |
| 2 | Damir Ismagulov | 12 of 26 | 46% | 7 of 21 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 12 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Rafael Alves | 24 of 66 | 36% | 14 of 49 | 6 of 12 | 4 of 5 | 23 of 65 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Damir Ismagulov | 16 of 30 | 53% | 11 of 23 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 2 | 14 of 28 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Rafael Alves | 15 of 37 | 40% | 12 of 33 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Big Brady confidently picks Ismagulov, calling him two levels above Alves stylistically. He highlights Ismagulov's 100% takedown defense, phenomenal striking defense (69%), and Alves' poor cardio and chin. He expects a knockout finish, noting Alves has been knocked out three times and slows after the first round. He acknowledges the layoff as the only concern.
Cody Saftic picks Damir Ismagulov, praising his technical boxing, takedown defense, and unflappable style. He notes that Ismagulov has beaten tough opponents like Joel Alvarez and Thiago Moises, and that Alves has struggled with weight cuts and has a journeyman record. Saftic believes Ismagulov will win by decision, controlling the fight with his jab and staying out of danger. He suggests a parlay with the over in the Spencer fight.
Daniel Levi picks Damir Ismagulov, praising his smooth, well-rounded striking and discipline. He respects Rafael Alves but notes that Alves missed weight due to personal tragedy and may not be fully focused. He predicts Ismagulov will cruise to a 30-27 decision, though he acknowledges the price is steep and there's no betting value.
Matt picks Damir Ismagulov to win by decision, despite a two-year layoff. He praises Ismagulov's technical striking, combination punching, and takedown defense. He notes Alves has cardio issues and a history of missing weight, which could worsen his gas tank. He expects Ismagulov to keep the fight standing and outpoint Alves over three rounds. He also considers a third-round finish prop at +800 due to Alves' potential fade, but prefers the decision line at -125.
Paul Shaughnessy picks Ismagulov, noting that he looks like a top-10 talent and that Alves is moving up in weight after missing weight badly. He believes Ismagulov's jab and takedown defense will be too much, and that Alves will struggle to get the fight to the ground. He suggests passing on the moneyline due to the price, but likes Ismagulov by decision or in a parlay.
The MMA Guru predicts Damir Ismagulov will win by 29-28 unanimous decision. He expects Rafael Alves to win the first round with early takedowns and big moments, but Ismagulov will establish his jab and technical stand-up in rounds two and three, securing takedowns late in those rounds to win on the scorecards.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damir Ismagulov | 0 | 64 of 150 | 42% | 64 of 150 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Joel Alvarez | 0 | 38 of 127 | 29% | 38 of 127 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Damir Ismagulov | 0 | 25 of 58 | 43% | 25 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Joel Alvarez | 0 | 16 of 54 | 29% | 16 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Damir Ismagulov | 0 | 25 of 57 | 43% | 25 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Joel Alvarez | 0 | 11 of 37 | 29% | 11 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Damir Ismagulov | 0 | 14 of 35 | 40% | 14 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Joel Alvarez | 0 | 11 of 36 | 30% | 11 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damir Ismagulov | 64 of 150 | 42% | 25 of 85 | 30 of 51 | 9 of 14 | 64 of 150 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Joel Alvarez | 38 of 127 | 29% | 26 of 107 | 5 of 11 | 7 of 9 | 37 of 126 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Damir Ismagulov | 25 of 58 | 43% | 8 of 28 | 12 of 23 | 5 of 7 | 25 of 58 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Joel Alvarez | 16 of 54 | 29% | 13 of 48 | 0 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 16 of 54 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Damir Ismagulov | 25 of 57 | 43% | 9 of 33 | 13 of 18 | 3 of 6 | 25 of 57 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Joel Alvarez | 11 of 37 | 29% | 7 of 29 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 4 | 11 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Damir Ismagulov | 14 of 35 | 40% | 8 of 24 | 5 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Joel Alvarez | 11 of 36 | 30% | 6 of 30 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 35 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
First up is a lightweight bout between Damir Ismagulov and Joel Alvarez. The referee for the first bout of the night is Jakub Muller. Ismagulov leads with a jab to the body then lands a chopping low kick. Another nice jab to the body with Ismagulov and then he nearly lands a right hook. Big straight right lands by Ismagulov to the chin of Alvarez. Another jab by Ismagulov, and then another low kick. Another big straight right hand lands on the chin of Alvarez, who is a stationary target at the moment. Right cross to the body by Ismagulov. Impressive body work by him so far. Ismagulov flails on a spinning back kick. Finally Alvarez lands a strike, a low kick. Another jab to the body by Ismagulov and a counter straight right. Low kick by Ismagulov. Alvarez lands a jab. Ismagulov lands a straight right and then nearly takes off Alvarez’ head with a wild left hook. Big uppercut by Ismagulov lands. Another low kick and then a straight right. Alvarez lands a knee to the body and then a low kick of his own. Ismagulov with another straight right. Jab to the body by Ismagulov and he lands a big left hook. Another jab by Ismagulov. He just misses landing a front kick. Another straight right by Ismagulov. Alvarez returns with a low kick. Jab to the body by Ismagulov. He just misses another right straight and the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Adam Martin scores the round: 10-9 Ismagulov
John Brannigan scores the round: 10-9 Ismagulov
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ismagulov
Round 2
Round two begins. Ismagulov just misses landing a big straight right as Alvarez just moves his head away. Another jab and straight right combo by Ismagulov. Spinning back kick to the body by Ismagulov just grazes Alvarez. Low kick by Ismagulov and Alvarez checks it. Jab to the body by Ismagulov. He connects on a huge overhand right to the chin but somehow Alvarez doesn’t get rocked from it. Jab to the body by Ismagulov. Jab to the head this time by Ismagulov. He just misses landing another overhand right. Another jab by Ismagulov and then a brutal left body kick. He just misses landing a right cross. Low kick lands by Alvarez but Ismagulov catches it and then lets Alvarez go. Another overhand right by Ismagulov. Another jab by Ismagulov, a low kick returned by Alvarez, and the round is over. This fight has been a blowout through two rounds.
Sherdog Scores
Adam Martin scores the round: 10-9 Ismagulov
John Brannigan scores the round: 10-9 Ismagulov
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ismagulov
Round 3
Round three begins and they touch gloves. Ismagulov continues to lead off the jab. He misses landing a right uppercut. A body kick lands by Ismagulov but Alvarez partially blocks it with his forearms. Ismagulov again misses an overhand right. Alvarez lands a nice body kick of his own. Ismagulov lands a straight right and then nearly lands a left hook. Alvarez lands a front kick to the body. Ismagulov catches the kick and then nearly lands another straight right. Ismagulov lands a kick to the body. Another overhand right by Ismagulov. Alvarez misses a spinning wheel kick. Alvarez lands a kick to the body that is caught by Ismagulov, who counters with a straight right. There’s one minute left in the fight now and Alvarez needs a stoppage. Alvarez lands a nasty low kick but once again it’s caught by Ismagulov. Alvarez lands a jab. Ismagulov with an overhand right. Alvarez lands a front kick to the body. Ismagulov just misses landing another overhand right. Alvarez misses landing a straight right of his own and the fight is over.
Sherdog Scores
Adam Martin scores the round: 10-9 Ismagulov (30-27 Ismagulov)
John Brannigan scores the round: 10-9 Ismagulov (30-27 Ismagulov)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ismagulov (30-27 Ismagulov)
The Official Result
Damir Ismagulov def. Joel Alvarez via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damir Ismagulov | 0 | 10 of 31 | 32% | 22 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alex Gorgees | 0 | 34 of 55 | 61% | 103 of 137 | 5 of 11 | 45% | 0 | 0 | 9:49 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Damir Ismagulov | 0 | 4 of 14 | 28% | 9 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alex Gorgees | 0 | 10 of 19 | 52% | 22 of 33 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 2:37 | |
| 2 | Damir Ismagulov | 0 | 1 of 10 | 10% | 3 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alex Gorgees | 0 | 12 of 20 | 60% | 51 of 62 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:42 | |
| 3 | Damir Ismagulov | 0 | 5 of 7 | 71% | 10 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alex Gorgees | 0 | 12 of 16 | 75% | 30 of 42 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:30 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damir Ismagulov | 10 of 31 | 32% | 5 of 21 | 3 of 5 | 2 of 5 | 5 of 26 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Alex Gorgees | 34 of 55 | 61% | 22 of 38 | 9 of 13 | 3 of 4 | 20 of 32 | 3 of 3 | 11 of 20 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Damir Ismagulov | 4 of 14 | 28% | 2 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 3 | 3 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Alex Gorgees | 10 of 19 | 52% | 5 of 10 | 3 of 6 | 2 of 3 | 8 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | |
| 2 | Damir Ismagulov | 1 of 10 | 10% | 0 of 7 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Alex Gorgees | 12 of 20 | 60% | 7 of 14 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 13 | |
| 3 | Damir Ismagulov | 5 of 7 | 71% | 3 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 3 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Alex Gorgees | 12 of 16 | 75% | 10 of 14 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 5 |
Joel Alvarez - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joel Alvarez | 0 | 8 of 22 | 36% | 9 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Yaroslav Amosov | 0 | 16 of 28 | 57% | 22 of 34 | 6 of 11 | 54% | 1 | 0 | 3:52 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joel Alvarez | 0 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Yaroslav Amosov | 0 | 10 of 17 | 58% | 16 of 23 | 5 of 9 | 55% | 0 | 0 | 3:43 | |
| 2 | Joel Alvarez | 0 | 6 of 16 | 37% | 6 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Yaroslav Amosov | 0 | 6 of 11 | 54% | 6 of 11 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 0:09 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joel Alvarez | 8 of 22 | 36% | 7 of 20 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Yaroslav Amosov | 16 of 28 | 57% | 11 of 20 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 6 | 9 of 20 | 5 of 6 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joel Alvarez | 2 of 6 | 33% | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Yaroslav Amosov | 10 of 17 | 58% | 8 of 13 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 9 | 5 of 6 | 2 of 2 | |
| 2 | Joel Alvarez | 6 of 16 | 37% | 5 of 14 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Yaroslav Amosov | 6 of 11 | 54% | 3 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 6 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Amosov (-185), Alvarez (+154)
Round 1
When two grappling-first athletes collide, sometimes they play the “there are levels to this” game. Other times, it results in a somewhat sloppy kickboxing match. Let’s see how things turn out between Spanish former lightweight Alvarez (23-3, 8-2 UFC) and cast away ex-Bellator welterweight kingpin Amosov (29-1, 1-0 UFC). Referee Keith Peterson joins the two 170ers in the cage to watch over them and keep all nonsense at bay. A high-five from the athletes precedes their mutual combat.
Alvarez stands firm in the center of the Octagon while Amosov circles around him flashing his jab. Amosov bounces on his heels in and out, and Alvarez does not budge much even as a front kick aims at him. Amosov dips down and clips Alvarez with a left hand, reddening the Spaniard’s nose in a second. Alvarez advances directly into a double-leg entry that is waiting for him, with a guillotine that is nowhere near completion. Amosov shrugs it out and sits down in a partial half guard, more interested in pushing Alvarez’ shoulder down. Amosov considers an arm-triangle choke across his opponent’s torso, and Alvarez frees himself from it to wall-walk. Amosov holds on with a standing arm-triangle choke, all while he looks for a trip as well.
Amosov wrenches Alvarez down on his face, and he slugs him in the side of the melon once or twice. He then knees Amosov in the posterior before aiming to secure another mat return. He gets it while Alvarez grimaces. “El Fenomeno” stands back up with the wall at his side, and Amosov laces his leg between Alvarez’ to threaten bringing him back down again. Amosov is able to sweep out the leg to put the Spanish fighter down once more, but he can only hold him for a second or three. While Alvarez is trying to stand again, Amosov beans him with several flush left hands. The round ends with Amosov selling out by lowering his weight down to hurl Alvarez over him to the floor, and this stands him back up like two kids playing on a playground. The round ends with Amosov helping Alvarez back to his feet like a real ladykiller.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Amosov
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Amosov
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Amosov
Round 2
The two are friendly with one another in their greeting, but once it’s on, it’s on. Alvarez walks forward to engage, keeping his hands down to prevent the expected takedown. This opens the Ukrainian up to kick Alvarez in the face. Amosov connects with two low kicks and springs into a punch combination, but this is exactly what Alvarez wants. Alvarez opens up and connects with a flurry, and Amosov snatches him up and deposits him gingerly to the canvas.
“Dynamo” practically lands in arm-triangle position after taking Alvarez for a ride, and Alvarez is in grave danger the second he hits the floor. Coming into this event, no one had ever tapped out submission ace Alvarez. That all changes when Amosov forces Alvarez to give up.
This is a statement win, the kind of breakout performance that will make the rest of the division pay attention to the ex-Bellator titlist. How does he celebrate? He breakdances in the middle of the cage.
The Official Result
Yaroslav Amosov def. Joel Alvarez R2 1:13 via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke)
Angelo picks Yaroslav Amosov, citing his chain wrestling and ability to get the fight to the ground at will. He notes Alvarez has no takedown defense (47%) and cannot keep the fight standing. He says Amosov is very good on the ground and will control from there. He mentions the line flipped from Alvarez being a big favorite to Amosov being favored.
Angelo is confident in Yaroslav Amosov, citing Joel Alvarez's poor takedown defense (47% but 0% before Vicente Luque). He believes Amosov's wrestling and grappling are on a different level and that he will take Alvarez down and dominate. He thinks Amosov runs through Alvarez.
Big Brady picks Joel Alvarez as a live dog, noting his improved takedown defense and massive size advantage. He believes if Alvarez can keep the fight standing, he has the power to knock out Amosov, who has been knocked out before. Brady expects Alvarez to get a finish, citing his 96% finish rate, and predicts a knockout.
Cody picks Amosov, citing his wrestling and top control. He thinks Amosov can take Alvarez down and neutralize his submission threats. Cody expects Amosov to win by decision.
Connor also picks Amosov, agreeing with Zane that the style matchup favors the wrestler. He notes that Alvarez's trap game relies on opponents driving into his guard, but Amosov is a patient top-control artist who won't fall into that trap. Connor points out that Alvarez's two UFC losses came against strong top-control grapplers, and Amosov fits that mold.
Daniel picks Amosov, citing his elite wrestling and the fact that Alvarez's kryptonite is good wrestlers. He notes Amosov's 29-1 record and believes he will maul Alvarez, possibly by submission.
Predicted method: Decision. Amosov is a former Bellator champion with elite grappling (4.64 takedowns per round, 4.6 submission average) and a dominant win over Neil Magny in his UFC debut. Alvarez is a dangerous submission specialist (1.1 sub avg) but has poor takedown defense (47%) and may struggle to keep the fight standing. Amosov's 54% striking defense and pressure will likely lead to takedowns and ground control. However, Alvarez has length and power on the feet, so Amosov must be careful. Expect Amosov to win by decision or late submission.
Jacob picks Amosov, noting that calf kicks will play a big part and that Joel Alvarez can be stationary. He thinks Amosov will get takedowns and control, making Alvarez look like he did in the Arman Tsarukyan fight. He expects a dominant performance.
Lucrative James picks Yaroslav Amosov because he believes Amosov's wrestling and top control will neutralize Joel Alvarez's submission threats. He notes that Alvarez has a history of being taken down and that Amosov is too good on top to get swept. He predicts Amosov wins by decision, as Alvarez is tough and dangerous on the feet but will be controlled on the ground.
The host picks Amosov, citing his well-rounded skills and superior wrestling. He believes Amosov can stay safe on the feet and take the fight to the ground, where he can control Alvarez and avoid submissions. He expects a decision win, noting that Alvarez may struggle to get submissions off his back against a strong wrestler.
Paul does not make a clear pick, saying he is tempted by Alvarez but ultimately passes. He notes the line movement and uncertainty, and decides to avoid the fight.
The MMA Guru picks Yaroslav Amosov, praising his elite grappling and elusive style. He notes Amosov dominated Neil Magny and has a 29-1 record. He worries about Alvarez's vulnerability on bottom and believes Amosov's wet blanket style will neutralize Alvarez's finishing potential. He predicts a decision win for Amosov, as long as he avoids a guillotine.
Zane picks Amosov, noting that while Alvarez is a dangerous trap fighter, Amosov's grinding top control and submission game are similar to the styles that have beaten Alvarez before (e.g., Arman Tsarukyan). He believes Amosov will get multiple takedowns and control the fight, though it may be ugly. Zane acknowledges Alvarez's finishing ability but sees the matchup favoring Amosov's methodical approach.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vicente Luque | 0 | 30 of 99 | 30% | 31 of 101 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Joel Alvarez | 0 | 89 of 148 | 60% | 197 of 288 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 6:30 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vicente Luque | 0 | 21 of 65 | 32% | 21 of 65 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Joel Alvarez | 0 | 38 of 67 | 56% | 38 of 67 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Vicente Luque | 0 | 6 of 18 | 33% | 7 of 20 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Joel Alvarez | 0 | 48 of 72 | 66% | 122 of 173 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 3:35 | |
| 3 | Vicente Luque | 0 | 3 of 16 | 18% | 3 of 16 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Joel Alvarez | 0 | 3 of 9 | 33% | 37 of 48 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 2:55 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vicente Luque | 30 of 99 | 30% | 16 of 74 | 6 of 13 | 8 of 12 | 30 of 99 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Joel Alvarez | 89 of 148 | 60% | 74 of 130 | 12 of 15 | 3 of 3 | 55 of 100 | 0 of 0 | 34 of 48 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vicente Luque | 21 of 65 | 32% | 11 of 51 | 3 of 5 | 7 of 9 | 21 of 65 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Joel Alvarez | 38 of 67 | 56% | 30 of 56 | 6 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 38 of 67 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Vicente Luque | 6 of 18 | 33% | 3 of 13 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Joel Alvarez | 48 of 72 | 66% | 42 of 66 | 5 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 34 of 48 | |
| 3 | Vicente Luque | 3 of 16 | 18% | 2 of 10 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Joel Alvarez | 3 of 9 | 33% | 2 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Alvarez (-550); Luque (+400)
Round 1
Although his Fight Finder profile says he is from Westwood, New Jersey, Luque (23-11-1, 16-7 UFC) calls Brazil home as he moved there when he was young. He will have a full contingent of fan support behind him to take on ex-lightweight finisher Alvarez (22-3, 7-2 UFC), who somehow looks larger than the man who has made 170 pounds for the lion’s share of his career. The third man in the Octagon for this all-action clash will be referee Osiris Maia, and he bears witness to a sporting glove touch before the frenzy begins.
Alvarez sticks out his jab, and he parries a front kick. Luque swings his way forward, and the former lightweight swats his hands out of the air. Luque sits down on a low kick that forces a stance switch, and Alvarez responds with a straight let hand that marks up Luque’s nose. They connect with single strikes, with Alvarez relying on his power jab to set things up. Luque works his way in and scores once before Alvarez backs him off with his own attack. Luque again commits to a hard low kick, and he snaps the head back with a left hand. Alvarez stays composed and calm, and he jabs to string three punches after it. Luque drives home a low kick, and he rips a right hand over the top. Luque’s calf kick is doing damage, and Alvarez pushes him away as the knuckle of his thumb drills into Luque’s eye socket. Maia calls time, and Luque practically collapses to his knees in pain. The replay shows that the strike was legal, and Maia calls off the fight to award Alvarez the TKO win…and then uncalls it, giving Luque time to see the doctor. This fight should be over, as the strike was a legal one so Luque should not be given time to recover. The complete and utter failure in regulation allows Luque 90 seconds to clear his vision, and the fight somehow continues.
When they resume, Luque knows his time is limited, so he lets loose with short but effective flurries. Alvarez strikes back with a vengeance, but Luque reaches him and lands flush several times. Alvarez gets off an especially effective front kick, and the two calm down for a bit. Luque’s eye is showing some serious damage, and Alvarez gets back to action by targeting the right side of Luque’s head with a kick and a number of punches. The round ends, despite what happened earlier.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Alvarez
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Alvarez
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Alvarez
Round 2
The two have reached the second round. Alvarez wants to finish the job…again, and he starts it with a barrage of punches, a high kick and a wheel kick as well. Alvarez takes time to celebrate his handiwork, staying out of range for Luque’s blitzes. Alvarez chains punches into a body kick, and Luque tries for a takedown and is shoved to his back. The Spanish fighter briefly considers a brabo choke, and he lets it go to slam his fists into Luque’s face. Alvarez lowers himself down for a much tighter brabo, and Luque twists and manages to survive, but he is under fire. Alvarez drops down punches any target he can find with Luque pulling guard to get Alvarez close to him, and Alvarez thanks him for this by belting him with 12-to-6 elbows.
Alvarez elbows Luque in the thigh to open up his guard, and he advances to half guard and smacks Luque around with more elbows. Luque clings to Alvarez’ left arm while doing practically nothing else on his knees, and Alvarez methodically pounds on him. Maia stands idly by as Luque takes a beating, and Alvarez hangs on from above to keep Luque from escaping. Alvarez’ elbows open things up further for him, and Luque can only answer with a leglock that Alvarez completely ignores until the horn sounds. The only question is whether that round, one that should not have happened in the first place, will be a 10-9 or a 10-8.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Alvarez
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-8 Alvarez
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-8 Alvarez
Round 3
Doctors and Maia check in on Luque’s condition between rounds, with his right eye swelling and damaged. He is cleared to resume even though it sounds like he says his eye is
not working
, and they both flick jabs at one another. As if he does not want to cause more harm to his opponent, Alvarez takes his foot largely off the gas, while dancing away from the labored offense hurled his way. Luque is the more active of the two, but he will most certainly need a finish barring an aberrant scorecard. The fighters trade low kicks, and Alvarez’ brushes the cup. Luque signals he is fine, and he keeps out of range until shooting in for a single.
Alvarez defends it without issue, and he slithers his legs around Luque’s neck for an inverted triangle. Luque signals a thumbs-up that the choke is not too tight, and Alvarez is sitting on him in a precarious position unable to land with much as Luque has the back of his neck and spine presented. Alvarez chills out on top of Luque, completely nullifying the veteran, and the crowd does not love what is transpiring in the cage. Alvarez cranks on Luque’s toes to no effect, and he smacks Luque in the side again and again until the Brazilian turns over. Alvarez concludes the match with hammerfists to the face, and they have heard the final bell. At least it’s over, but Alvarez’ 100% finish rate is no more.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Alvarez (30-26 Alvarez)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Alvarez (30-26 Alvarez)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Alvarez (30-26 Alvarez)
The Official Result
Joel Alvarez def. Vicente Luque via Unanimous Decision (30-26, 30-26, 30-26)
Angelo picks Joel Alvarez, calling him 'Vicente 2.0' and stating that the current version of Vicente is older, slower, and chinnier. He believes Joel will likely finish Vicente on the feet or ground. He notes Vicente's only chance is if Joel doesn't defend takedowns, but still picks Joel.
Big Brady picks Joel Alvarez to win dominantly by first-round submission. He expresses serious concerns about Vicente Luque's durability and mentality after a brain bleed and a quit against Buckley. He notes Alvarez is moving up to welterweight, which is overdue, and will be much bigger. Brady sees multiple paths to victory: hurting Luque on the feet, Luque shooting in and getting submitted, or Luque looking for a way out.
Cody picks Alvarez but with hesitancy due to the weight move and Luque's toughness. He notes Alvarez's momentum and Luque's recent struggles, but worries about the physical matchup. He likes Alvarez to finish but sees limited value at the current price.
Lucrative James is confident in Joel Alvarez, citing his youth, power, and submission skills. He notes Vicente Luque's age and fight mileage, including a brain bleed. He expects Alvarez to finish Luque, likely by submission, as Luque has been submitted before. He likes the submission prop at +175.
James is confident Alvarez will steamroll Luque, citing Alvarez's superior durability, power, and striking arsenal. He notes Luque's likely grappling attempts but believes Alvarez's submission threats from his back will be decisive. He predicts a first-round finish and suggests betting on Alvarez inside the distance or under 1.5 rounds.
Manpreet is confident in Alvarez, citing Luque's decline due to wear and tear, and Alvarez's youth, power, and finishing ability. He notes Alvarez's height and reach advantages, and believes Alvarez can finish Luque early, possibly by KO in round one. He recommends Alvarez inside the distance or under 1.5 rounds as betting options.
Paul picks Joel Alvarez, believing Vicente Luque is shot and has changed his style after knockouts. He notes Alvarez's pressure, length, and cardio, and expects him to finish Luque via submission or TKO. He acknowledges the weight move but sees Alvarez as the better fighter.
The MMA Guru picks Joel Alvarez over Vicente Luque, citing Alvarez's size, reach, and finishing ability. He notes Luque has been in many wars and is aging, while Alvarez is a talented lightweight moving up. He predicts a TKO finish.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joel Alvarez | 0 | 20 of 24 | 83% | 39 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Drakkar Klose | 0 | 7 of 13 | 53% | 16 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:08 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joel Alvarez | 0 | 20 of 24 | 83% | 39 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Drakkar Klose | 0 | 7 of 13 | 53% | 16 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:08 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joel Alvarez | 20 of 24 | 83% | 15 of 19 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 16 | 8 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Drakkar Klose | 7 of 13 | 53% | 1 of 6 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 4 | 7 of 12 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joel Alvarez | 20 of 24 | 83% | 15 of 19 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 16 | 8 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Drakkar Klose | 7 of 13 | 53% | 1 of 6 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 4 | 7 of 12 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Alvarez (-395), Klose (+310)
Round 1
The referee for this lightweight contest is Dan Miragliotta. Klose and Alvarez meet in the center of the cage. Klose lands a heavy leg kick and then goes to the body twice. Alvarez using his length to jab on the outside. Alvarez hurts Klose with a straight right hand. Klose powers through with a takedown and goes straight into side control. Alvarez gets back to guard and starts landing elbows. Alvarez uses the cage to get back up. Klose gets hurt by a 1-2.
Alvarez lands a jumping knee, and Klose is knocked immediately out cold. Alvarez is holding up the body of Klose and landing more punches until the referee steps in.
Wow!
The Official Result
Joel Alvarez def. Drakkar Klose via KO (Knee and Punches); R1, 2:48.
Angelo picks Alvarez despite being a vocal hater, because Alvarez's striking looked fantastic in his last fight and his jiu-jitsu is very good. He notes that Klose is a good wrestler with solid boxing, but Alvarez has more ways to win. However, he strongly believes the odds are too wide (3-to-1 favorite) and that this should be a close fight. He warns that Klose can control where the fight goes and if he has success striking, Alvarez is in trouble because he has no offensive wrestling.
Big Brady picks Joel Alvarez to win by second-round submission. He is confident Alvarez is a problem, with 18 submissions and improving striking. He thinks Klose is vulnerable after the Jeremy Stephens push and looked bad against Warlley Alves. He expects Alvarez to hurt Klose on the feet and then snatch a submission when Klose shoots.
Connor also picks Alvarez but is hesitant, noting that Klose is a durable wrestle-boxer who has only lost to Benil Dariush and a split decision to David Teymur. He points out that Alvarez is a dangerous opportunist whose whole game is built to spring traps, but Klose is tough to finish and might be able to control the fight in the clinch. Connor thinks Alvarez's long strikes and submission threats give him the advantage, but it's a risky pick.
Alvarez's aggressiveness should allow him to get a late finish over Klose, specifically in the second or third round. However, Klose's strength of schedule and grinding ability make him worth an underdog consideration given the wide odds.
The MMA Guru picks Joel Alvarez, calling him 'the truth' in the lightweight division. He praises Alvarez's multi-range ability: striking at range, clinch work, and submissions. He notes that Alvarez is entering his prime at 31, has improved his weight cut, and has a highlight-reel finish over Elves Brener. He contrasts this with Drakkar Klose, whom he considers consistently mid and lacking dynamic ability to separate himself. He predicts a TKO in the second round.
Zane picks Alvarez but with hesitation, noting that Klose is a tough, durable fighter who has only lost once clearly in his career. He acknowledges that Alvarez's game is full of holes but is directionally sound, built to draw opponents into traps. He worries that Klose might be able to frustrate Alvarez with clinch work and toughness, but ultimately believes Alvarez's finishing ability and opportunistic style give him the edge.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joel Alvarez | 1 | 95 of 141 | 67% | 114 of 164 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:51 |
| Elves Brener | 0 | 45 of 97 | 46% | 45 of 98 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:22 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joel Alvarez | 0 | 25 of 36 | 69% | 39 of 52 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:48 |
| Elves Brener | 0 | 15 of 27 | 55% | 15 of 28 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:17 | |
| 2 | Joel Alvarez | 0 | 31 of 45 | 68% | 32 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Elves Brener | 0 | 18 of 42 | 42% | 18 of 42 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:05 | |
| 3 | Joel Alvarez | 1 | 39 of 60 | 65% | 43 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Elves Brener | 0 | 12 of 28 | 42% | 12 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joel Alvarez | 95 of 141 | 67% | 67 of 111 | 24 of 26 | 4 of 4 | 71 of 112 | 24 of 29 | 0 of 0 |
| Elves Brener | 45 of 97 | 46% | 17 of 58 | 7 of 16 | 21 of 23 | 45 of 96 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joel Alvarez | 25 of 36 | 69% | 15 of 24 | 9 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 21 of 32 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Elves Brener | 15 of 27 | 55% | 6 of 14 | 0 of 4 | 9 of 9 | 15 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Joel Alvarez | 31 of 45 | 68% | 19 of 33 | 10 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 31 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Elves Brener | 18 of 42 | 42% | 6 of 24 | 5 of 10 | 7 of 8 | 18 of 42 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Joel Alvarez | 39 of 60 | 65% | 33 of 54 | 5 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 19 of 35 | 20 of 25 | 0 of 0 |
| Elves Brener | 12 of 28 | 42% | 5 of 20 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 6 | 12 of 27 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Alvarez (-185), Brener (+154)
Round 1
The main card kicks off with a potential banger at 155 pounds, between two athletes who combine for two decision wins across their 36 pro victories. Alvarez (20-3, 5-2 UFC) sports a marvelous 100% finish rate, while the two triumphs on the scorecards can be attributed to Brener (16-4, 3-1 UFC). In this Spain vs. Brazil battle, referee Lukasz Bosacki takes charge to make sure there are no ill international relations. There is a fist bump to get things started, and Brener engages with a pair of leg kicks. Brener jabs his way into range, and he kicks the lead leg and gets knocked back with a right hand. Alvarez loads up on a power right hand to get Brener’s attention, and he walks the Brazilian down while measuring him with a jab. Alvarez calmly cuts off the cage, and he pins a one-two on the chin. Brener ducks down, directly into a standing guillotine choke, and he furiously throws Alvarez off of him. Alvarez resets and jabs the body, and he hops away from a jumping low kick. Brener keeps working on the leg and tosses out a front kick to mix things up, strafing to the side when Alvarez advances. Alvarez boots his man in the head, rings his bell with two punches and rails him with a jump knee. Brener absorbs it all without flinching, and he ties Alvarez up and looks to throw him down. The gangly Alvarez does not go down, landing in a 50-50 position and getting back up. Alvarez targets the liver with a left and kicks his man as well. Blasting Brener in the body and then kneeing him on the chin, Alvarez lines up a few more knees until Brener shoots in on his hips. Alvarez welcomes this as he fastens a brabo choke, and Brener rolls to his side and back in hopes of defending the submission. Brener pulls on Alvarez’ shorts to defend it, and Alvarez puts as much pressure as he can muster on the choke. Brener miraculously survives to the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Alvarez
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Alvarez
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Alvarez
Round 2
Alvarez is so ready to get back to it, he paces in his corner before they begin. When they do, gloves are briefly touched, and Alvarez moves right to the middle of the cage. Brener awkwardly moves back and forth, hands up and down, but Alvarez does not flinch even when absorbing a clean left hand on the jaw. Alvarez swings his way in, and Brener counters with a left and digs a body shot to open up a right hand over the top. Alvarez pushes with a front kick and irritates Brener’s nose with a long jab, and he aims a jab at the body while backing away from a front kick. Alvarez zips a left and a right to the midsection, and Brener charges, landing and getting caught with a right at the end. Brener kicks the body a few times, and Alvarez jabs him up. Brener works the body and shoots for a takedown, where he pushes Alvarez to the wall but cannot wrench him to the canvas. Alvarez splits off and jabs a front kick to the ribs, and Brener kicks him and rushes away. Brener swipes out with a left hook, and it is one-and-done. Alvarez continues to plod forward, sneaking a left around the guard and aiming a right hand to the sternum. Alvarez blocks a kick aimed at his noggin and keeps the pressure going, doubling up on a jab to make Brener scoot away. Alvarez follows him around, jabbing and following one with a low kick. Brener kicks him back in the same spot, and he darts in with a leaping left. Alvarez catches Brener coming in with a sniping left, and he just misses with a long right hand and a head kick. Brener keeps moving to not take anything flush, and he scoops a left hand under the guard. Alvarez paws out a few jabs to stay busy, and he backs off when Brener charges him. Brener walks through a jab to connect with a right hand, and Alvarez walks him down and boots him in the raised guard. Brener tries to jump knee him, and the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Alvarez
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Alvarez
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Alvarez
Round 3
The fighters motion to the crowd to get them energized, which works while they meet in the middle and clap their hands together. Brener scores a low kick and hurries away, and he is out of range from a front kick. They crash together with right hands, and Alvarez walks through a leg kick to track him down. Brener is on his bike, not planting his feet for long, but that does not stop Alvarez from popping him with a one-two. A rushed exchange from Brener results him in getting tagged more often and more effectively, so he breaks off and tries a spinning strike. Alvarez blocks it without issue, and he goes to the body with a left and kicks high twice. Brener guards against both and connects with a leg kick, and he sprints in with a left hand and backs off when Alvarez kicks him in the lead calf. Alvarez jabs and sets up a hook when Brener does the same, and Brener pours it on but that only results in him getting worked.
Alvarez rocks him with a left hand, drawing blood with a combination that follows around the left eye, and he chains a dozen or so knees to the head. Bosacki watches on closely as Alvarez clobbers him with furious knees, and Brener’s legs eventually give out beneath him. “El Fenomeno” only needs a pair of left hands to finish the job
, as Bosacki is on top of the action and rescues the Brazilian from further punishment. Alvarez retains his 100% finish rate with the stoppage late in the fight, while handing the durable Brener his first finish loss.
The Official Result
Joel Alvarez def. Elves Brener R3 3:36 via TKO (Knees and Punches)
Angelo picks Brener but is hesitant because of the submission threat from Alvarez. He notes Alvarez has never taken anyone down but submits opponents who take him down, except Arman Tsarukyan. He thinks Brener is the more powerful striker and may keep it on the feet, but worries about Brener's submission defense if he wrestles.
Big Brady is leaning towards Brener despite Alvarez's dangerous finishing ability. He notes Alvarez has a 100% finish rate but questions his durability and ability to handle pressure, recalling Alvarez's loss to Arman Tsarukyan where he was beaten on the ground. He thinks Brener's pressure and pace could break Alvarez later in the fight, predicting a third-round TKO.
Cody picks Joel Alvarez, citing his massive size advantage and superior BJJ. He notes that Brener is undersized and has been hurt by smaller opponents. Cody thinks Alvarez can use his reach and knees to keep Brener at range, and if Brener shoots, Alvarez can submit him. He also mentions that Alvarez has good striking and has finished fights standing. Cody believes Brener's upset streak ends here.
Alvarez is more dangerous with his size, length, and power. He can shell opponents up and pick them apart, and has more tools to sink in chokes and use elbows and knees. He should finish Brener within two rounds.
Paul picks Joel Alvarez, noting his size and submission skills. He thinks Alvarez can win inside the distance, possibly by submission. Paul acknowledges that Brener could take over if the fight goes deep, but he expects Alvarez to finish early. He also mentions that the fight ends inside the distance is a good prop.
The MMA Guru picks Joel Alvarez over Elves Brener, noting that Brener always gets hurt in fights and Alvarez finishes when he hurts opponents. He highlights Alvarez's massive reach advantage and nasty calf kicks. He thinks Brener's only good win is against Kaynan Kruschewsky and that he was getting beaten by Guram Kutateladze before a comeback. He expects Alvarez to crack Brener and put him away.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joel Alvarez | 0 | 20 of 46 | 43% | 29 of 60 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 3:09 |
| Marc Diakiese | 0 | 42 of 75 | 56% | 64 of 98 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 1:26 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joel Alvarez | 0 | 19 of 42 | 45% | 20 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
| Marc Diakiese | 0 | 31 of 62 | 50% | 31 of 62 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:28 | |
| 2 | Joel Alvarez | 0 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 9 of 13 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 2:55 |
| Marc Diakiese | 0 | 11 of 13 | 84% | 33 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:58 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joel Alvarez | 20 of 46 | 43% | 8 of 25 | 6 of 11 | 6 of 10 | 20 of 46 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Marc Diakiese | 42 of 75 | 56% | 20 of 49 | 12 of 16 | 10 of 10 | 37 of 70 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joel Alvarez | 19 of 42 | 45% | 7 of 22 | 6 of 11 | 6 of 9 | 19 of 42 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Marc Diakiese | 31 of 62 | 50% | 15 of 42 | 7 of 11 | 9 of 9 | 31 of 62 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Joel Alvarez | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Marc Diakiese | 11 of 13 | 84% | 5 of 7 | 5 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Alvarez (-190), Diakiese (+160)
Round 1
Although this next lightweight pairing might be described as a potential brawl, neither Diakiese (16-6, 7-6 UFC) nor Alvarez (19-3, 4-2 UFC) make their bread off of being knockout artists. Instead, their grappling has been arguably their best attributes, so this could turn into a wild affair that ends up going everywhere. Keeping tabs on this fight will be referee Dan Movahedi, one that opens up with a fist bump from the 155ers. The two are amped up to engage, and the first strike offered is a low kick from Diakiese. When he misses, he resets and reaches his target with a second. Alvarez brings up a high knee when Diakiese comes at him, and he fires off a kick to the knee sleeve of his opponent and catches the Brit with a right hand. Diakiese goes down low with a kick, and he uses his other leg to kick the body. They crash together throwing fierce fists, and both catch the other with one punch and back off to take quick counts of their teeth. Diakiese chains a low kick into a spinning back kick, and Alvarez bounces off the cage wall and gets back to striking range. Alvarez springs into action with a calf kick and a right hand, and they measure one another with jabs to follow. Alvarez steps in with a knee, and Diakiese throws everything he has into a right hand that opens a cut on the cheek of his opponent. Diakiese spins with a back fist, and Alvarez ducks it and catches him with a right hand that staggers the mohawk-sporting fighter momentarily. Diakiese swings for the bleachers with a right hand, and Alvarez dodges it and absorbs a flush leg kick so he can counter with a head kick. Alvarez chambers and looses a hard leg kick, and he beats Diakiese to the punch with a check left hook as Diakiese winds up on a power punch. Alvarez pushes off with a front kick, and he gets wobbled when swinging too hard with a haymaker while Diakiese counters him. Diakiese lets him settle down and gives chase to line up a right hook and a spinning back kick, and Alvarez runs at him with two fists and a leg kick. Alvarez spins with a high kick, ducks a spinning back fist, takes Diakiese’s back and looks for a trip. Diakiese leans himself against the cage to keep himself upright, and Alvarez succeeds in tripping him out. Diakiese reverses him to end up on top, and he scores an elbow and a few body shots before the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Alvarez
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Alvarez
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Alvarez
Round 2
The lightweights briefly tap their gloves together, but Diakiese is more interested in coming out firing. Alvarez pays close attention, and he watches Diakiese sail past him with a spinning wheel kick. When Diakiese gets his balance again, he changes levels and secures a takedown to put the Spaniard on his back. Alvarez scrambles to put himself close to the wall, and Diakiese is comfortable inside of the guard softening Alvarez up with short strikes. Alvarez looks to turn to the side or potentially set up something off his back, and Diakiese stays heavy and tightly pressed to his man to prevent anything from coming together. Diakiese embraces the grind, focusing more on position rather than offense. Alvarez decides to stop looking for some submission off his back, and he wall-walks to stand back up. Diakiese strips out his legs and puts him down to his back again. Alvarez uses upkicks to stop Diakiese from lowering himself down, and Diakiese shoots down low and gets turned around by the Spanish fighter. With “The Bonecrusher” turning to his knees, Alvarez opens up with punches to the side of the head. Alvarez is warned for strikes to the back of the head, and Diakiese turns to his back and suddenly explodes up to his feet. Alvarez races forward to attack, and his head bounces off Diakiese’s. Diakiese clutches the side of his head, signaling to Movahedi that he absorbed a foul. Movahedi tells them to fight on, and Alvarez unloads with several knees to the body and ferocious fists.
Diakiese desperately drops down to pursue a takedown, and Alvarez welcomes this as he follows Diakiese down and isolates the neck. “El Fenomeno” slides his arm beneath the chin and his other under the armpit to lock down a brabo choke, and he has it tight. Diakiese rolls to his back, and Alvarez moves to lower his full body weight down to complete the submission. With Diakiese still rocked by the head clash, he does not have the sense to fight the choke, and he taps out.
This is an unfortunate situation for Diakiese, as Movahedi missed the clash of heads with Alvarez’ forehead slamming into the side of Diakiese’s head behind the ear. As the official announcement is read, it is unclear if the result will be under review at this time. Diakiese is still wobbled from the foul when Movahedi raises Alvarez’ victorious arm, and he almost falls over and has to be caught by one of his cornermen so he does not crash and burn. The official result is a submission, but it might not remain as such should it get reviewed or appealed.
The Official Result
Joel Alvarez def. Marc Diakiese R2 4:26 via Submission (Brabo Choke)
Angelo likes Joel Alvarez's length and reach advantage, and thinks he can win by sneaky submission off his back or catch Diakiese on the feet. He notes Alvarez has no takedown defense but believes Diakiese's recent loss to an older Michael Johnson is a bad sign. He has a small moneyline bet but does not recommend tailing.
Big Brady picks Joel Alvarez to win by first-round submission. He notes Alvarez is a dangerous grappler with 84% of wins by submission, but also has good striking as shown against Thiago Moises. He thinks Diakiese will shoot for a takedown and get caught. He mentions Alvarez may miss weight but that benefits him. He would not lay -190 but thinks Alvarez wins more often than not.
Cody picked Alvarez earlier at -152, citing Diakiese's poor fight IQ and failure to wrestle against Michael Johnson. He thinks Alvarez's submission grappling and power will be too much. He notes the line has moved to -200 and feels the value is gone.
Daniel picks Joel Alvarez by submission, specifically a guillotine, because he does not trust Marc Diakiese to avoid diving into a submission. He notes Diakiese has been guillotined before and makes bonehead mistakes. He acknowledges Diakiese has the tools to win via takedowns and control, but believes Alvarez's opportunistic finishing ability and physicality will prevail. He points out that Alvarez has 0% takedown defense but is dangerous off his back. He has zero interest in betting Alvarez at -190 to -200 due to the poor value.
The host picks Joel Alvarez, citing his size, reach, aggression, and ability to inflict damage from any position. He believes Diakiese cracks under pressure and that Alvarez will finish him within 7.5 minutes. He notes Alvarez's dangerous bottom game with elbows and submissions.
Paul picks Alvarez, noting his power and submission threat. He thinks Diakiese's wrestling is overrated and that he will leave his neck exposed. He expects Alvarez to win by submission or decision, and suggests live betting if Diakiese controls the first round.
The MMA Guru picks Joel Alvarez, citing Marc Diakiese's poor performance against Michael Johnson. He praises Alvarez's win over Thiago Moises and his massive 77-inch reach in the lightweight division. The Guru notes Diakiese's tendency to get caught in guillotines when shooting takedowns, and predicts Alvarez will catch a guillotine after a takedown attempt. He also mentions Alvarez's layoff but believes he is entering his prime.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joel Alvarez | 0 | 36 of 53 | 67% | 93 of 122 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 6:08 |
| Arman Tsarukyan | 0 | 7 of 10 | 70% | 27 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joel Alvarez | 0 | 13 of 19 | 68% | 50 of 59 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:22 |
| Arman Tsarukyan | 0 | 5 of 8 | 62% | 25 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Joel Alvarez | 0 | 23 of 34 | 67% | 43 of 63 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:46 |
| Arman Tsarukyan | 0 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joel Alvarez | 36 of 53 | 67% | 31 of 48 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 32 of 44 |
| Arman Tsarukyan | 7 of 10 | 70% | 5 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joel Alvarez | 13 of 19 | 68% | 10 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 12 |
| Arman Tsarukyan | 5 of 8 | 62% | 4 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 | |
| 2 | Joel Alvarez | 23 of 34 | 67% | 21 of 32 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 23 of 32 |
| Arman Tsarukyan | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
It’s a pairing of four-fight winning streaks for these lightweight prospects, and Chris Tognoni will referee the bout. Tsarukyan sticks a jab early. Tsarukyan kicks Alvarez’s leg and is able to score a takedown with his opponent off balance. Tsarukyan is now inside the lanky Spaniard’s guard. Alvarez lands an elbow from his back. Tsarukyan remains heavy on top, and he’s working diligently to pass to half guard. Alvarez does a good job preventing the pass. Tsarukyan drops an elbow from above. Alvarez is active with his guard and lands a hammerfist from his back. Tsarukyan floats into a front headlock before finding himself in the full guard of his opponent. A slashing elbow lands for Tsarukyan, who then lands a short elbow to the face. It’s control time galore for the Russian standout, and another elbow cuts Alvarez wide open. Alvarez is just gushing blood in the waning seconds, and Tsarukyan is pouring it on. Another elbow lands before the horn. The fight could be in danger of being stopped between rounds, as Alvarez’s face is a crimson mask.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Tsarukyan
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Tsarukyan
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Tsarukyan
Round 2
Amazingly, Alvarez is allowed to continue for another round after a brief examination from the cageside doctor. Tsarukyan shoots immediately. Alvarez looks for a guillotine but his foe passes to side control. Tsarukyan briefly achieves a mounted crucifix but Alvarez frees his arm. From side control, Tsarukyan drops brual elbows and punches, and Alvarez is spewing blood again, his vision obviously obscured. Alvarez is on all fours, eating punches. The Spaniard attempts to stand, and Tsarukyan ragdolls him back down near the fence. More punches from Tsarukyan, and Tognoni urges Alvarez to fight back.
From back mount, Tsarukyan controls the wrists and unloads with more left hands. Tognoni has finally seen enough and mercifully calls off the fight.
The Official Result
Arman Tsarukyan def. Joel Alvarez via TKO (Punches) R2 1:57
Big Brady picks Joel Alvarez to win inside the distance. He notes Alvarez has a massive eight-inch height and 4.5-inch reach advantage, and is dangerous everywhere: striking and submissions. He points out that Tsarukyan's wrestling could play into Alvarez's game, as Alvarez has a 0% takedown defense but is very dangerous off his back with multiple submission wins. Brady was initially surprised that money was coming in on Alvarez but now sees it as justified. He believes Alvarez can finish by knockout or submission.
Cody picks Tsarukyan by decision, citing his superior speed, wrestling, and cardio. He notes Alvarez's submission threats but believes Tsarukyan's head placement and takedown defense will keep him safe. Cody mentions Tsarukyan's camp in Russia as a slight concern but still sees him winning via volume and takedowns.
Daniel Levi picks Arman Tsarukyan to win by decision. He emphasizes Tsarukyan's relentless takedown game and ability to neutralize submissions. Levi notes Alvarez is dangerous with submissions off his back and has knockout power, but believes Tsarukyan will avoid standing and grind out a win. He disagrees with the dog-or-pass label and expects Tsarukyan to cover the spread.
The host hesitantly picks Alvarez as an underdog, citing his size, confidence, and finishing streak. He believes Alvarez can keep the fight standing and land big strikes, potentially drawing a desperation takedown from Tsarukyan that could lead to a guillotine. He acknowledges Tsarukyan is a top prospect but thinks the odds are too wide and Alvarez deserves more respect. He predicts a second-round TKO.
Paul agrees with Tsarukyan by decision, emphasizing his wrestling and striking advantage. He notes Alvarez's improved striking but trusts Tsarukyan's ability to mix takedowns and avoid submissions. Paul suggests waiting for a better price on Tsarukyan as the line may move.
The MMA Guru picks Joel Alvarez to win, calling it a 51-49 lean. He acknowledges Arman Tsarukyan's skills but believes Alvarez's size, reach, and power are decisive factors. He notes that Alvarez is much bigger and may have a weight advantage, and that his immediate damaging shots (elbows, guillotines) give him more paths to victory. The Guru expects Tsarukyan to win by decision if he wins, while Alvarez can finish early by TKO or submission. He also mentions Alvarez's chin held up against Thiago Moises.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joel Alvarez | 0 | 11 of 24 | 45% | 11 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Thiago Moises | 0 | 44 of 73 | 60% | 44 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joel Alvarez | 0 | 11 of 24 | 45% | 11 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Thiago Moises | 0 | 44 of 73 | 60% | 44 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joel Alvarez | 11 of 24 | 45% | 5 of 18 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 11 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Thiago Moises | 44 of 73 | 60% | 27 of 54 | 12 of 14 | 5 of 5 | 36 of 61 | 8 of 12 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joel Alvarez | 11 of 24 | 45% | 5 of 18 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 11 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Thiago Moises | 44 of 73 | 60% | 27 of 54 | 12 of 14 | 5 of 5 | 36 of 61 | 8 of 12 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
For the second fight in a row, Alvarez (18-2, 3-1 UFC) significantly missed weight ahead of his bout. While not as egregious as weighing 159.5 pounds in 2020, coming in a pound and a half heavy has cost him 30% of his purse ahead of his battle with Moises (15-5, 4-3 UFC). This 157.5-pound catchweight contest will be under the watchful eye of Marc Goddard, and Alvarez tries to make amends with a glove touch and Moises obliges him. Moises takes the center of the cage immediately, and he scores a slapping leg kick and whiffs on a huge right hand. Alvarez returns fire, but Moises stands firm and chops at his calf again. Alvarez has a left hand sneak around the guard, and he tries to check a kick. Moises winds up with a left and a massive right hand, and Alvarez wears it well but then takes a leg kick. Alvarez replies with his own chopping kick, and Moises greets him with a slap of a kick up top. Alvarez steps forward, walking Moises down and throwing high knees to great effect. Moises circles around the edge of the cage as Alvarez is stalking him while avoiding the power punches that come at him. Alvarez has his own leg kick and big right hand go around the guards, and Moises is rattled and trying to gather himself. “El Fenomeno” lets loose a phenomenal salvo of strikes that rock Moises, and Moises is still standing but taking some serious damage. Alvarez scores a big elbow, and as he continues to give chase with Moises escaping, he looses a spinning wheel kick that clatters of the guard. Sensing the end might be near, Alvarez strides forward confidently and catches a body kick to push Moises back to the fence.
Alvarez unleashes a brutal salvo of elbows up top, and when Moises shells up, Alvarez blasts the body with a ruthless barrage of blows. Moises is barely surviving as he leans on the wall, and as the assault continues, Goddard determines that Moises is no longer intelligently defending himself and saves Moises from any further damage.
Although one more victory for him is marred by his missing weight, Alvarez certainly impressed by wrecking what the UFC considered a top-15 lightweight. Alvarez also keeps his spectacular 100% finish rate intact while earning what is a rare stoppage due to strikes for the Spaniard.
The Official Result
Joel Alvarez def. Thiago Moises R1 3:01 via TKO (Elbows and Punches)
Angelo picks Thiago Moises, noting he is the better technical striker and wrestler. He points out that Alvarez has no wrestling and has been taken down 100% of the time in the UFC. Angelo believes Moises can initiate takedowns and be on top, making him the safer pick.
Big Brady is confident in Thiago Moises, pointing out that Joel Alvarez has zero takedown defense and zero takedowns attempted in the UFC, relying on submissions from his back. Moises is a world-class grappler with a black belt, and Brady doubts Alvarez can submit him. He also notes Moises' striking has improved, as seen in his win over Alexander Hernandez.
Cody emphasizes Moises' improvements and his takedown ability, noting he even took down Islam Makhachev. He points out Alvarez's 0% takedown defense and that his submissions came against lower-level opponents. He expects Moises to take Alvarez down and control him, possibly winning by decision or submission.
Daniel Levi picks Thiago Moises, citing his higher level of competition and experience against top lightweights. He notes that Moises has a solid shell defense and kicks, and that Alvarez has zero percent takedown defense, which Moises can exploit. Levi acknowledges Alvarez's dangerous guard but believes Moises is on a different level and will win a decision or find a submission.
Jacob picks Thiago Moises but warns him not to grapple with Alvarez. He believes Moises' striking is more than enough to win and that taking Alvarez down could lead to a submission. Jacob is a fan of Moises and thinks he should keep the fight standing.
Paul thinks Moises is a more finished product with good BJJ and wrestling. He notes Alvarez has 0% takedown defense and Moises can take him down and control him. He expects Moises to win by decision or submission, but doesn't love the price.
The Guru picks Joel Alvarez by unanimous decision despite Alvarez missing weight. He expects Alvarez to out-strike Moises at range with jabs and calf kicks, while defending takedowns. The Guru expresses concern about the weight miss but still favors Alvarez's striking.
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