UFC on ESPN: Ngannou vs. Velasquez · Feb 17, 2019 · Women's Strawweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC on ESPN: Ngannou vs. Velasquez Next Fight
Age 38
Height 5' 4"
Reach 64.0"
Weight 115 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 39
Height 5' 7"
Reach 67.0"
Weight 125 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Cynthia Calvillo
4.41 SLpM
38.0% Str. Acc.
4.12 SApM
64.0% Str. Def.
1.8 TD Avg
44.0% TD Acc.
77.0% TD Def.
0.8 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Cortney Casey
4.29 SLpM
39.0% Str. Acc.
4.0 SApM
55.0% Str. Def.
0.39 TD Avg
31.0% TD Acc.
39.0% TD Def.
0.5 Sub. Avg
Cynthia Calvillo - Fight History
LOSS vs Loopy Godinez
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2 · Apr 08, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Loopy Godinez 0 104 of 333 31% 107 of 338 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:15
Cynthia Calvillo 0 87 of 180 48% 93 of 188 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Loopy Godinez 0 18 of 83 21% 21 of 87 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:14
Cynthia Calvillo 0 19 of 45 42% 24 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Loopy Godinez 0 38 of 118 32% 38 of 118 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Cynthia Calvillo 0 32 of 54 59% 33 of 55 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Loopy Godinez 0 48 of 132 36% 48 of 133 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Cynthia Calvillo 0 36 of 81 44% 36 of 81 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Loopy Godinez 104 of 333 31% 58 of 249 30 of 64 16 of 20 104 of 333 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cynthia Calvillo 87 of 180 48% 65 of 146 15 of 24 7 of 10 87 of 178 0 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Loopy Godinez 18 of 83 21% 12 of 70 3 of 10 3 of 3 18 of 83 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cynthia Calvillo 19 of 45 42% 14 of 37 1 of 4 4 of 4 19 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Loopy Godinez 38 of 118 32% 21 of 84 13 of 26 4 of 8 38 of 118 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cynthia Calvillo 32 of 54 59% 25 of 43 7 of 9 0 of 2 32 of 52 0 of 2 0 of 0
3 Loopy Godinez 48 of 132 36% 25 of 95 14 of 28 9 of 9 48 of 132 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cynthia Calvillo 36 of 81 44% 26 of 66 7 of 11 3 of 4 36 of 81 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Loopy Godinez

Angelo picks Lupita Godinez but is not betting due to her unreliable performance against Angela Hill. He notes that when Lupita shows up, she is a big, strong, powerful wrestler with clean boxing, but she needs to be the bully. He thinks she should be able to push Cynthia Calvillo around, but needs to prove herself after the last fight.

"Loopy's the pick if you want a parlayer go for it I I'm just gonna sit tight have her proof herself to me"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Apr 3, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Loopy Godinez

Big Brady picks Lupita Godinez but with hesitation due to her poor game plan against Angela Hill where she didn't wrestle. He believes Godinez should win by using her wrestling against Calvillo, who is on a losing streak. He predicts a decision win but expresses distrust in Godinez's consistency.

"give me loopy by decision but I'm done trusting loopy after she decided to to not wrestle on the Angela Hill fight"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Cynthia Calvillo

Cody picks Calvillo as a value play. He notes Godinez's inconsistency and poor fight IQ, and believes Calvillo has a chance despite her losing streak. He mentions Calvillo's wrestling background and that she has been competitive against top fighters. Cody says he already put $200 on Calvillo earlier in the week and may add more. He calls it a system play based on Pat Mayo's CF model.

Calvillo moneyline at +250
"I think I put like 200 bucks earlier in the week on it but uh I may be adding more"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Loopy Godinez

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Godinez. He notes that Calvillo's division switch is a bad sign and that her game doesn't connect. Connor also mentions that Godinez is aggressive and should win.

"Yep. Godinas opened to the minus three 26..."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lean picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Loopy Godinez

Jacob is leaning towards Lupita but is wary after being burned by her last fight. He notes that if Lupita uses her wrestling, she can dominate, but if she doesn't, it will be a close fight. He thinks Cynthia Calvillo may be 'broke' with zero confidence, but Lupita's inconsistency makes him hesitant.

"if loopy wants to wrestle she can dominate if she doesn't wrestle it's gonna be a close close fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Loopy Godinez

Godinez has good wrestling and BJJ, but needs to blend takedowns behind her striking. Calvillo has struggled with her striking and confidence, and a recent camp change may not help at 35. Godinez should have a striking advantage and can stuff takedowns. My only concern is Godinez getting stuck in bad positions, but I think she pulls away via decision.

"I think that godinez is the better fighter odds a little bit too wide for me here but I still think she gets her hand raised by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Loopy Godinez

Paul picks Godinez but is very hesitant. He criticizes Godinez's poor fight IQ, noting she often abandons her wrestling and strikes instead. He points to her fight against Angela Hill where she didn't wrestle despite having a clear advantage. Paul thinks Calvillo is on a losing streak but has faced tough competition. He says Godinez is talented but unreliable at -300.

Godinez under 3 takedowns on PrizePicks
"the pick is gonna end up being on uh on her opponent Lupita godinez but from -300 no we're talking like fourth line Fifth Line low lower on the list"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2023 (fight day)
Loopy Godinez

The MMA Guru picks Lupita Godinez to win by 29-28 split decision. He expects Godinez to land crisper shots on the feet and mix in takedowns in the first two rounds, while Calvillo will come back in the third round. He sees round two as a toss-up but believes Godinez's takedowns will be the difference maker. The prediction is close and acknowledges Calvillo's late surge.

"I'm gonna go with Lupita godinez by 29.28 Split Decision"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Loopy Godinez

Zane picks Godinez because Calvillo has been mentally in a hole and her game is dysfunctional. He notes that Godinez is crazy and aggressive, which should be enough to win. However, he worries that if Godinez can't get takedowns, she loses confidence in her boxing.

"I'm going to take Godinas. I don't love this fight for her... but Calvillo has been mentally in a hole and I can't pick her."
LOSS vs Nina Nunes
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Vera vs. Cruz · Aug 13, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nina Nunes 0 48 of 139 34% 66 of 159 3 of 6 50% 0 0 2:09
Cynthia Calvillo 0 39 of 133 29% 47 of 142 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nina Nunes 0 10 of 40 25% 10 of 40 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:02
Cynthia Calvillo 0 10 of 37 27% 10 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Nina Nunes 0 9 of 41 21% 27 of 61 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:44
Cynthia Calvillo 0 9 of 39 23% 16 of 47 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Nina Nunes 0 29 of 58 50% 29 of 58 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:23
Cynthia Calvillo 0 20 of 57 35% 21 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nina Nunes 48 of 139 34% 16 of 86 17 of 26 15 of 27 47 of 138 1 of 1 0 of 0
Cynthia Calvillo 39 of 133 29% 17 of 94 4 of 12 18 of 27 38 of 131 1 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nina Nunes 10 of 40 25% 4 of 26 1 of 4 5 of 10 10 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cynthia Calvillo 10 of 37 27% 1 of 21 1 of 4 8 of 12 10 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Nina Nunes 9 of 41 21% 3 of 28 4 of 7 2 of 6 9 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cynthia Calvillo 9 of 39 23% 5 of 30 1 of 3 3 of 6 8 of 37 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 Nina Nunes 29 of 58 50% 9 of 32 12 of 15 8 of 11 28 of 57 1 of 1 0 of 0
Cynthia Calvillo 20 of 57 35% 11 of 43 2 of 5 7 of 9 20 of 57 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Nina Nunes

Angelo picks Nina Nunes as an underdog, citing Calvillo's decline after the Andrade loss and her quitting on the stool. He believes Nunes is more consistent, tough, and will not break. He notes Calvillo is the more talented fighter but has lost her edge.

"i gotta go with nunes here i think calvillo is definitely the better fighter overall ... but if you look at that entourage loss it took something out of her"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Aug 9, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Nina Nunes

Big Brady hesitantly picks Nina Nunes to win by decision. He notes that both fighters are on losing streaks and have question marks: Nunes is 36, coming off a layoff and a loss, while Calvillo is 35, on a three-fight skid, and seems distracted. Stylistically, Nunes has better takedown defense and striking. Brady says he would never bet on this fight but picks Nunes to stuff takedowns and win on the feet.

win by decision
"i guess i'll go with nina nunez here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 10, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Nina Nunes

Cody picks Nina Nunes, citing red flags on both sides but favoring Nunes' striking advantage and improved grappling camp with Amanda Nunes. He notes Calvillo's recent lack of wrestling and poor durability. Cody thinks Nunes can scramble back to her feet and win on the feet.

"i will go with nina nunez there's red flags all over this thing man"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert picked Aug 10, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Daniel Levi passes on this fight, noting that both fighters are in uncertain form. He says Cynthia Calvillo has been quitting on the stool and Nina Nunes had a baby and COVID. He cannot confidently pick a winner.

"I got no idea."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert picked Aug 13, 2022 (fight day)

The host mentions Nunes as an underdog he likes but wants nothing to do with that fight, so he does not make a pick. He does not provide any analysis or reasoning for either fighter.

"i would say nina nunes as well but i want nothing to do with that fight so i'm not gonna tell you guys to do that"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Aug 10, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Nina Nunes

Paul leans toward Nina Nunes as an underdog. He notes that Calvillo hasn't dominated with wrestling at 125 lbs and that if the fight stays standing, Nunes wins. He is considering a shot on the dog, citing Calvillo's recent poor performances and lack of desire.

"i'll i haven't bet it yet but i'm considering a shot on the dog nina nunez"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Cynthia Calvillo

The host picks Cynthia Calvillo, questioning Nina Nunes's focus and commitment. He notes Nunes's easy loss to Mackenzie Dern and believes Calvillo's grappling and recent competition level will lead to a 29-28 decision. He expects Calvillo to pull ahead after a tough first round.

29-28 decision
"i'm going to be going with cynthia calvillo"
LOSS vs Andrea Lee
TKO (corner stoppage) R2 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez · Nov 13, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Andrea Lee 0 47 of 154 30% 47 of 154 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:39
Cynthia Calvillo 0 84 of 210 40% 85 of 211 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Andrea Lee 0 25 of 87 28% 25 of 87 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:39
Cynthia Calvillo 0 43 of 116 37% 44 of 117 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Andrea Lee 0 22 of 67 32% 22 of 67 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Cynthia Calvillo 0 41 of 94 43% 41 of 94 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Andrea Lee 47 of 154 30% 18 of 99 21 of 46 8 of 9 47 of 154 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cynthia Calvillo 84 of 210 40% 46 of 155 30 of 45 8 of 10 83 of 208 1 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Andrea Lee 25 of 87 28% 11 of 62 10 of 20 4 of 5 25 of 87 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cynthia Calvillo 43 of 116 37% 27 of 92 12 of 19 4 of 5 43 of 115 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Andrea Lee 22 of 67 32% 7 of 37 11 of 26 4 of 4 22 of 67 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cynthia Calvillo 41 of 94 43% 19 of 63 18 of 26 4 of 5 40 of 93 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Andrea Lee

Angelo picks Andrea Lee, citing her polished striking and comfort on the feet. He notes that Calvillo looks uncomfortable striking and that Lee has improved grappling. Angelo has a moneyline bet on Lee at near even money and thinks she can control the striking exchanges.

moneyline bet at minus 105
"andrea leaves my pick and i do have a moneyline bet at her at minus 105 almost even money"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Nov 9, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Cynthia Calvillo

Big Brady picks Cynthia Calvillo but is hesitant, noting Andrea Lee has superior striking volume and accuracy. However, he highlights Lee's poor takedown defense (57%) and that she has been taken down in every UFC fight except one. Brady believes Calvillo can win by wrestling, but recalls her fight against Chookagian where she didn't wrestle enough, causing doubt.

Calvillo by decision
"i will take alveo though and i will take alvey to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Nov 10, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Andrea Lee

Cody has a gut feeling that Calvillo might lose. He notes that Lee has been working on her wrestling and that Calvillo is 1-2 at 125 lbs. He thinks if Lee can stuff takedowns, she can out-strike Calvillo. He calls it a 'dog or pass' and might take a small shot on Lee.

"i got a bad gut feeling that calvio's actually gonna end up losing this one"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 11, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Cynthia Calvillo

Daniel Levi picks Cynthia Calvillo, citing her dominant ground game and ability to get takedowns. He notes that Andrea Lee has been taken down multiple times by previous opponents (Roxanne Modafferi, Lauren Murphy, Joanne Calderwood) and believes Calvillo only needs one or two takedowns to win rounds or secure a finish. Levi acknowledges Lee's striking volume but thinks Calvillo's grappling will be the difference.

"give me cynthia calvio to come out here and and probably win the decision"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Cynthia Calvillo

Jacob picks Cynthia Calvillo, believing she will dominate on the ground. He thinks Calvillo will get in the pocket, take Lee down, and control the fight. Jacob is a big Calvillo fan and thinks the UFC gave her a winnable matchup after her loss to Andrade.

"i think she absolutely dominates this fight i i'm a big cynthia fan"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Cynthia Calvillo

Paul believes Calvillo has a massive wrestling advantage and should spam takedowns. He notes that Andrea Lee gives up takedowns to everyone. He thinks Calvillo can control the fight on the ground and win a decision.

"i think calvio is the side here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2021 (fight day)
Cynthia Calvillo

The Guru picks Cynthia Calvillo by unanimous decision (29-27). He expects Andrea Lee to win the first round on the feet, but Calvillo's takedowns and ground control in rounds two and three will secure the win. Calvillo will get a 10-8 in the third due to dominant ground and pound.

unanimous decision 29-27
"i'm going to be going with cynthia calvillo here and i'm going to be picking her by unanimous decision"
TKO (punches) R1 4:54 · UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega · Sep 25, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jéssica Andrade 0 48 of 86 55% 48 of 86 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Cynthia Calvillo 0 27 of 75 36% 27 of 75 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jéssica Andrade 0 48 of 86 55% 48 of 86 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Cynthia Calvillo 0 27 of 75 36% 27 of 75 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jéssica Andrade 48 of 86 55% 34 of 70 2 of 3 12 of 13 41 of 72 7 of 14 0 of 0
Cynthia Calvillo 27 of 75 36% 10 of 52 13 of 18 4 of 5 27 of 75 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jéssica Andrade 48 of 86 55% 34 of 70 2 of 3 12 of 13 41 of 72 7 of 14 0 of 0
Cynthia Calvillo 27 of 75 36% 10 of 52 13 of 18 4 of 5 27 of 75 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Jéssica Andrade

Angelo picks Andrade, noting her power, bullying style, and that her losses are only to champions. He believes Andrade's strength and aggression will overwhelm Calvillo, who is more technical but lacks power. Angelo thinks Andrade will bully Calvillo and win.

Angelo likes less less on Monkey Knife Fight, expecting a stoppage. He says he won't touch the moneyline at -280.
"Jessica Andre gets this done bullies the hell out of Cynthia"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Jéssica Andrade

Big Brady picks Jéssica Andrade to win by decision. He believes Andrade is the better striker with more power and volume, and she should stuff Calvillo's takedowns. He notes Andrade has fought much better competition and expects a dominant performance.

"i'll take jessica andraj to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 23, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Jéssica Andrade

Cody is confident Andrade wins, citing her superior strength, pressure, and well-rounded skills. He thinks she will finish Calvillo, who has never been finished in MMA but has shown vulnerabilities. He likes Andrade inside the distance at +150.

Andrade inside the distance (+150)
"i like andrade i like android inside the distance i think she becomes the first woman to finish cynthia calvillo"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Jéssica Andrade

Daniel Levi picks Jéssica Andrade, acknowledging her power and history of knockouts in the women's divisions. He notes that Andrade's power can override technique, but he questions her motivation after losing two title fights. He respects Cynthia Calvillo's ground game and toughness, but believes if Andrade is mentally focused, she will win. He expresses concern about a potential title-fight letdown.

"if jessica andraj comes out here looking like the just gone we all know and love then i think she's gonna come out here and win this fight"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lean picked Sep 21, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Cynthia Calvillo

Jacob picks Calvillo, seeing value at +220. He thinks Calvillo can out-tough Andrade and threaten submissions. Jacob notes that Andrade may not be able to bully Calvillo at flyweight. He admits he doesn't think Calvillo will dominate but sees a path to victory.

Jacob considers including Calvillo in his DraftKings lineup at $7,200. He disagrees with Angelo's less less pick, leaning more more.
"I think there's some real value in Cynthia here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2021 (fight day)
Jéssica Andrade

The host picks Jéssica Andrade via decision. He believes Andrade will march forward, land big shots, and stop takedowns. He thinks Calvillo's wrestling is not good enough to take Andrade down repeatedly. He notes that Andrade has a power advantage and will do damage, but Calvillo is durable. He expects the fight to take place mostly on the feet where Andrade has the edge.

"i'm going to go with andraj be a decision in this spot"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 23, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Jéssica Andrade

Paul is confident Andrade wins, calling her a 'body snatcher' and noting her power and durability. He acknowledges Calvillo's path to victory via wrestling but doubts she can impose her will. He expects Andrade to dominate.

"i think jessica andrade kills her i don't even think this is going to be particularly close"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 19, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Jéssica Andrade

The MMA Guru picks Jéssica Andrade over Cynthia Calvillo, citing Andrade's superior striking and grappling. He notes that Calvillo has no finishing ability and cannot keep Andrade down. He expects Andrade to win a decision, possibly with a late-round finish, as she builds momentum. He mentions that Andrade is younger and has fought for titles, while Calvillo couldn't crack the top 10 at strawweight.

decision, good odds on decision
"i'll say a decision for jessica and raj and there might be some good odds on that as well"
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez · Nov 21, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Katlyn Cerminara 0 69 of 230 30% 69 of 230 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Cynthia Calvillo 0 60 of 197 30% 60 of 197 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Katlyn Cerminara 0 27 of 72 37% 27 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Cynthia Calvillo 0 21 of 60 35% 21 of 60 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:00
2 Katlyn Cerminara 0 24 of 80 30% 24 of 80 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Cynthia Calvillo 0 17 of 71 23% 17 of 71 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Katlyn Cerminara 0 18 of 78 23% 18 of 78 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Cynthia Calvillo 0 22 of 66 33% 22 of 66 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Katlyn Cerminara 69 of 230 30% 45 of 190 11 of 22 13 of 18 68 of 227 1 of 3 0 of 0
Cynthia Calvillo 60 of 197 30% 31 of 134 17 of 46 12 of 17 59 of 196 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Katlyn Cerminara 27 of 72 37% 11 of 51 7 of 10 9 of 11 27 of 71 0 of 1 0 of 0
Cynthia Calvillo 21 of 60 35% 11 of 42 4 of 11 6 of 7 21 of 60 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Katlyn Cerminara 24 of 80 30% 19 of 71 2 of 5 3 of 4 23 of 79 1 of 1 0 of 0
Cynthia Calvillo 17 of 71 23% 8 of 51 6 of 15 3 of 5 17 of 71 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Katlyn Cerminara 18 of 78 23% 15 of 68 2 of 7 1 of 3 18 of 77 0 of 1 0 of 0
Cynthia Calvillo 22 of 66 33% 12 of 41 7 of 20 3 of 5 21 of 65 1 of 1 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 18, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Cynthia Calvillo

Big Brady picks Cynthia Calvillo to win by decision. He notes Calvillo has good wrestling and Chookagian has poor takedown defense (48%). He thinks Calvillo will take her down and control the fight, though the line is too wide for a close fight.

"the picks calvio by decision"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 19, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Cynthia Calvillo

Daniel picks Calvillo, citing her toughness, improved striking, and ground game. He notes Chookagian has been talking about retirement and was stopped in her last fight. He believes Calvillo is hungrier and will impose her will, especially if she gets top position.

"i'm gonna go with cynthia cavilla calvillo to get this one done"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 17, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Katlyn Cerminara

The host picks Katlyn Cerminara to win by decision, seeing massive value at plus money. He believes her movement and range will cause problems for Calvillo, and that she can keep the fight on the feet or hold her own on the ground. He thinks the line is too wide and that Cerminara has a good chance.

"I'm going to go with Tran to win this fight via decision as uh you know if this fight does primarily play out on the feet she could absolutely steal it"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 15, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Cynthia Calvillo

The MMA Guru picks Cynthia Calvillo to win by unanimous decision (30-27). He believes Calvillo's takedowns will be the difference, as she has evolved and has good grappling. He notes Chookagian may be coming back too soon after a body shot loss, and that Calvillo has wins over top flyweights like Joanne Calderwood.

"going to go with cynthia calvio getting the unanimous decision win"
WIN vs Jessica Eye
Decision (unanimous) (49–46, 49–46, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Eye vs. Calvillo · Jun 13, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Cynthia Calvillo 0 70 of 280 25% 70 of 283 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jessica Eye 0 113 of 237 47% 150 of 294 4 of 7 57% 0 0 7:46
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Cynthia Calvillo 0 20 of 82 24% 20 of 82 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jessica Eye 0 24 of 68 35% 24 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Cynthia Calvillo 0 7 of 23 30% 7 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jessica Eye 0 12 of 18 66% 30 of 43 1 of 3 33% 0 0 3:47
3 Cynthia Calvillo 0 14 of 55 25% 14 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jessica Eye 0 23 of 53 43% 26 of 56 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:17
4 Cynthia Calvillo 0 5 of 34 14% 5 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jessica Eye 0 17 of 30 56% 33 of 59 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:13
5 Cynthia Calvillo 0 24 of 86 27% 24 of 86 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jessica Eye 0 37 of 68 54% 37 of 68 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:29
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Cynthia Calvillo 70 of 280 25% 59 of 261 10 of 17 1 of 2 69 of 276 1 of 4 0 of 0
Jessica Eye 113 of 237 47% 77 of 185 32 of 48 4 of 4 105 of 225 1 of 1 7 of 11
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Cynthia Calvillo 20 of 82 24% 16 of 78 4 of 4 0 of 0 20 of 80 0 of 2 0 of 0
Jessica Eye 24 of 68 35% 13 of 54 8 of 11 3 of 3 24 of 68 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Cynthia Calvillo 7 of 23 30% 4 of 20 2 of 2 1 of 1 6 of 22 1 of 1 0 of 0
Jessica Eye 12 of 18 66% 9 of 15 3 of 3 0 of 0 8 of 14 0 of 0 4 of 4
3 Cynthia Calvillo 14 of 55 25% 14 of 53 0 of 1 0 of 1 14 of 55 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jessica Eye 23 of 53 43% 15 of 37 7 of 15 1 of 1 23 of 53 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Cynthia Calvillo 5 of 34 14% 5 of 33 0 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 33 0 of 1 0 of 0
Jessica Eye 17 of 30 56% 14 of 26 3 of 4 0 of 0 17 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Cynthia Calvillo 24 of 86 27% 20 of 77 4 of 9 0 of 0 24 of 86 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jessica Eye 37 of 68 54% 26 of 53 11 of 15 0 of 0 33 of 60 1 of 1 3 of 7
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 12, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Cynthia Calvillo

Daniel Levi slightly leans towards Cynthia Calvillo, emphasizing her opportunistic ground game and finishing ability. He notes that while Jessica Eye may have advantages in boxing and athleticism, Calvillo can capitalize on takedowns and ground control to steal rounds. Levi acknowledges his bias against Eye but believes Calvillo's cardio and opportunistic nature could edge her to a close decision or even a finish.

"I'm gonna slightly lean towards Cynthia Calvillo here and maybe that's my own bias Shack because I tend to pick against Jessica eye all the time and that bad I'm way to work like a charm at flyweight it's been …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 8, 2020 (5 days before fight)
Jessica Eye

The MMA Guru picks Jessica Eye, citing her reach advantage, size, takedown defense, and superior boxing. He notes that Cynthia Calvillo is 32 and not a young talent, so he favors Eye's experience. He predicts a boring five-round unanimous decision with Eye winning every round.

boring five-round unanimous decision, 50-45 scorecard
"Jessica is gonna win this one. She's got a reach advantage, she's way bigger than Cynthia Calvillo, she's got great takedown defense, she's way better at boxing."
Draw (majority) (29–28, 28–28, 28–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Overeem vs. Rozenstruik · Dec 07, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marina Rodriguez 0 56 of 140 40% 61 of 145 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Cynthia Calvillo 0 78 of 130 60% 112 of 173 3 of 4 75% 0 0 5:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marina Rodriguez 0 22 of 53 41% 27 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Cynthia Calvillo 0 21 of 32 65% 25 of 37 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:35
2 Marina Rodriguez 0 29 of 71 40% 29 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Cynthia Calvillo 0 13 of 39 33% 14 of 40 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:03
3 Marina Rodriguez 0 5 of 16 31% 5 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Cynthia Calvillo 0 44 of 59 74% 73 of 96 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:26
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marina Rodriguez 56 of 140 40% 30 of 110 18 of 20 8 of 10 39 of 117 17 of 23 0 of 0
Cynthia Calvillo 78 of 130 60% 51 of 90 17 of 26 10 of 14 30 of 72 2 of 2 46 of 56
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marina Rodriguez 22 of 53 41% 17 of 48 4 of 4 1 of 1 14 of 44 8 of 9 0 of 0
Cynthia Calvillo 21 of 32 65% 12 of 19 4 of 7 5 of 6 16 of 27 1 of 1 4 of 4
2 Marina Rodriguez 29 of 71 40% 13 of 51 11 of 13 5 of 7 20 of 58 9 of 13 0 of 0
Cynthia Calvillo 13 of 39 33% 5 of 22 4 of 10 4 of 7 12 of 38 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Marina Rodriguez 5 of 16 31% 0 of 11 3 of 3 2 of 2 5 of 15 0 of 1 0 of 0
Cynthia Calvillo 44 of 59 74% 34 of 49 9 of 9 1 of 1 2 of 7 0 of 0 42 of 52
WIN vs Cortney Casey
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Ngannou vs. Velasquez · Feb 17, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Cynthia Calvillo 0 73 of 176 41% 73 of 177 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Cortney Casey 0 82 of 192 42% 82 of 192 0 of 6 0% 0 0 0:58
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Cynthia Calvillo 0 24 of 58 41% 24 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Cortney Casey 0 32 of 62 51% 32 of 62 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:03
2 Cynthia Calvillo 0 22 of 52 42% 22 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Cortney Casey 0 28 of 63 44% 28 of 63 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:33
3 Cynthia Calvillo 0 27 of 66 40% 27 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Cortney Casey 0 22 of 67 32% 22 of 67 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:22
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Cynthia Calvillo 73 of 176 41% 41 of 136 6 of 8 26 of 32 72 of 175 1 of 1 0 of 0
Cortney Casey 82 of 192 42% 41 of 139 17 of 24 24 of 29 79 of 186 3 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Cynthia Calvillo 24 of 58 41% 14 of 47 2 of 2 8 of 9 24 of 58 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cortney Casey 32 of 62 51% 10 of 37 8 of 11 14 of 14 29 of 59 3 of 3 0 of 0
2 Cynthia Calvillo 22 of 52 42% 12 of 38 2 of 3 8 of 11 22 of 52 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cortney Casey 28 of 63 44% 15 of 45 7 of 10 6 of 8 28 of 61 0 of 2 0 of 0
3 Cynthia Calvillo 27 of 66 40% 15 of 51 2 of 3 10 of 12 26 of 65 1 of 1 0 of 0
Cortney Casey 22 of 67 32% 16 of 57 2 of 3 4 of 7 22 of 66 0 of 1 0 of 0
Cortney Casey - Fight History
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: dos Anjos vs. Fiziev · Jul 09, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Antonina Shevchenko 0 55 of 117 47% 81 of 158 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:50
Cortney Casey 0 33 of 86 38% 80 of 146 2 of 5 40% 0 0 3:08
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Antonina Shevchenko 0 16 of 35 45% 30 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:34
Cortney Casey 0 12 of 20 60% 35 of 47 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Antonina Shevchenko 0 24 of 57 42% 24 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Cortney Casey 0 9 of 37 24% 9 of 39 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:14
3 Antonina Shevchenko 0 15 of 25 60% 27 of 46 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:16
Cortney Casey 0 12 of 29 41% 36 of 60 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:54
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Antonina Shevchenko 55 of 117 47% 26 of 73 15 of 26 14 of 18 54 of 115 1 of 2 0 of 0
Cortney Casey 33 of 86 38% 17 of 52 2 of 7 14 of 27 28 of 78 3 of 4 2 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Antonina Shevchenko 16 of 35 45% 6 of 21 5 of 8 5 of 6 16 of 35 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cortney Casey 12 of 20 60% 3 of 5 0 of 1 9 of 14 11 of 19 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Antonina Shevchenko 24 of 57 42% 9 of 34 6 of 11 9 of 12 24 of 57 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cortney Casey 9 of 37 24% 5 of 23 0 of 3 4 of 11 9 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Antonina Shevchenko 15 of 25 60% 11 of 18 4 of 7 0 of 0 14 of 23 1 of 2 0 of 0
Cortney Casey 12 of 29 41% 9 of 24 2 of 3 1 of 2 8 of 22 2 of 3 2 of 4
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jul 3, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Antonina Shevchenko

Angelo picks Antonina Shevchenko as the better striker, expecting the fight to stay on the feet since Cortney Casey has poor takedown offense (no takedowns in 4 years). He notes Antonina has clean technique but real gaps in grappling. He is not betting the moneyline but considers a plus 3.5 round bet on Casey because she is tough and could win one round.

Considering a plus 3.5 round bet on Cortney Casey (buying points).
"I need to go with the better striker and that is going to be antonina... I might do a plus three and a half on courtney."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jul 5, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Antonina Shevchenko

Big Brady picks Antonina Shevchenko but with low confidence, noting that he typically looks to fade her. He explains that Cortney Casey's path to victory would be via takedowns, but she rarely uses her wrestling (only 0.26 takedowns per 15 minutes). Since he can't trust Casey to implement that game plan, he expects the fight to stay on the feet where Shevchenko is the better striker. He calls it a close fight and says he doesn't want to bet it.

"if i had to make a pick it's going to be antonina by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Antonina Shevchenko

Cody thinks Shevchenko's striking is world-class and she has a slight wrestling advantage over Casey. He notes Casey is durable but has poor takedown defense. He expects Shevchenko to use her speed and technique to win a decision, possibly mixing in takedowns.

Mentions Shevchenko by decision as a prop.
"i think you're going to want to improve that price tag by taking the shepchenko by decision that makes sense"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert picked Jul 9, 2022 (fight day)

The host does not pick a winner for this fight. He only bets on the fight going to decision (over 2.5 rounds) at -180. He expects Shevchenko to outpoint Casey but notes that Casey could snatch a submission. He does not commit to a side on the moneyline.

2 units on fight goes to decision at -180. Parlay includes over 2.5 rounds.
"two units on the fight goes to decision for servchenko and Casey that's at minus 180. again a little bit chalky there again but I do think that this is one of those spots where they're just gonna outpoint one …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Antonina Shevchenko

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Shevchenko. He notes that Casey's wrestling is non-existent and Shevchenko should have a grappling advantage. He thinks the price is reasonable for a women's MMA fight and expects Shevchenko to win.

"yeah i gotta go with that as well again women's mma so you don't want to be paying anything north of you know minus 200 but minus 165 not a terrible price tag"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 4, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Cortney Casey

The Guru picks Cortney Casey as an underdog, calling the fight a coin flip between two inconsistent fighters. He believes oddsmakers overvalue Shevchenko's surname and record. He trusts Casey's volume and grappling to edge out a decision, possibly mixing in takedowns.

underdog; decision win
"I've got to side with Courtney Casey as an underdog."
WIN vs Liana Jojua
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez · Nov 13, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Cortney Casey 0 89 of 218 40% 124 of 257 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Liana Jojua 0 34 of 154 22% 57 of 184 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:33
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Cortney Casey 0 29 of 67 43% 53 of 91 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Liana Jojua 0 9 of 47 19% 13 of 54 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:31
2 Cortney Casey 0 23 of 61 37% 30 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Liana Jojua 0 8 of 45 17% 26 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:44
3 Cortney Casey 0 37 of 90 41% 41 of 94 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Liana Jojua 0 17 of 62 27% 18 of 63 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:18
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Cortney Casey 89 of 218 40% 61 of 173 12 of 25 16 of 20 86 of 213 2 of 2 1 of 3
Liana Jojua 34 of 154 22% 29 of 143 4 of 9 1 of 2 30 of 145 1 of 2 3 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Cortney Casey 29 of 67 43% 19 of 53 4 of 6 6 of 8 29 of 67 0 of 0 0 of 0
Liana Jojua 9 of 47 19% 8 of 45 1 of 2 0 of 0 7 of 43 0 of 0 2 of 4
2 Cortney Casey 23 of 61 37% 14 of 46 3 of 8 6 of 7 22 of 58 0 of 0 1 of 3
Liana Jojua 8 of 45 17% 7 of 41 0 of 2 1 of 2 7 of 42 0 of 0 1 of 3
3 Cortney Casey 37 of 90 41% 28 of 74 5 of 11 4 of 5 35 of 88 2 of 2 0 of 0
Liana Jojua 17 of 62 27% 14 of 57 3 of 5 0 of 0 16 of 60 1 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Nov 10, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Cortney Casey

Angelo leans toward Cortney Casey due to her higher level of competition and more technical striking. He acknowledges that Jojua has a path to victory through grappling but notes her poor takedown ability. Angelo thinks the odds are a bit wide and considers this a close fight, but picks experience.

"i think this is much closer than these odds i'm going with the experience here i am going to pick casey"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 9, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Cortney Casey

Big Brady is confident in Cortney Casey, criticizing Liana Jojua's poor striking defense, wrestling, and cardio. He notes Jojua was dominated by Sarah Morris and Miranda Maverick, and while Casey has a mediocre record, she has faced tougher competition. Brady expects Casey to have a striking advantage and predicts a TKO in the second round as Jojua fades.

Casey by TKO in round 2
"give me according to casey to win i'm going to take her to win by like a tko in the second round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Nov 10, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Cortney Casey

Cody is betting against Jojua, not for Casey. He notes Jojua's poor performances and long layoff. He thinks Casey's volume and experience should win, but he's not confident because Casey is 9-9 and hasn't won in two years. He advises caution and checking weigh-ins.

"the pick will be courtney casey it's just i got to figure out what the trust level is like"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 11, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Cortney Casey

Daniel Levi picks Cortney Casey, noting that Jojua's takedowns are not strong and most of her wins come by armbar off her back, which Casey has not been submitted by. He acknowledges Casey's poor takedown defense but believes she is the tougher fighter and has beaten higher-level competition. Levi says he would never bet Casey at -240 but still picks her to win.

would not bet at -240
"i gotta go with courtney casey here"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Liana Jojua

Jacob picks Liana Jojua as his lock of the week, believing she will use offensive wrestling to take Casey down and control her. He notes that Casey has been taken down in recent fights and thinks Jojua's grappling is superior. Jacob is very confident in this pick.

"she's the lock of the week let's get that out of the way"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Cortney Casey

Paul thinks Casey is far more skilled than Jojua, who has poor stand-up and is hittable. He expects Casey to win by volume and experience. He notes Casey's grappling is adequate and Jojua's only path is a submission, which is unlikely.

"casey gets the win i never want to back courtney casey at minus 235 but i think she's got her out gunned everywhere here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2021 (fight day)
Cortney Casey

The Guru picks Cortney Casey by submission (rear-naked choke) in the second round. He expects Casey to out-strike Jojua on the feet, then reverse a takedown attempt and secure the choke. Jojua's nose and eye will be bloodied from Casey's pressure and clinch work.

submission in round 2
"casey reverses position takes to back put the puts the hooks in gets the re-naked choke and lyanna jojo taps to a remake of choke at the end of the second round"
LOSS vs JJ Aldrich
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Muhammad · Mar 13, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
JJ Aldrich 0 55 of 131 41% 121 of 202 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Cortney Casey 0 45 of 80 56% 58 of 99 4 of 7 57% 0 0 5:44
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 JJ Aldrich 0 21 of 40 52% 51 of 74 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Cortney Casey 0 9 of 19 47% 18 of 31 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:54
2 JJ Aldrich 0 7 of 25 28% 43 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Cortney Casey 0 11 of 18 61% 15 of 24 2 of 3 66% 0 0 3:06
3 JJ Aldrich 0 27 of 66 40% 27 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Cortney Casey 0 25 of 43 58% 25 of 44 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:44
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
JJ Aldrich 55 of 131 41% 35 of 107 9 of 12 11 of 12 45 of 114 10 of 17 0 of 0
Cortney Casey 45 of 80 56% 41 of 74 4 of 6 0 of 0 36 of 64 4 of 7 5 of 9
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 JJ Aldrich 21 of 40 52% 8 of 26 5 of 5 8 of 9 13 of 27 8 of 13 0 of 0
Cortney Casey 9 of 19 47% 6 of 14 3 of 5 0 of 0 6 of 13 3 of 5 0 of 1
2 JJ Aldrich 7 of 25 28% 4 of 20 2 of 4 1 of 1 7 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cortney Casey 11 of 18 61% 11 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0 6 of 10 0 of 0 5 of 8
3 JJ Aldrich 27 of 66 40% 23 of 61 2 of 3 2 of 2 25 of 62 2 of 4 0 of 0
Cortney Casey 25 of 43 58% 24 of 42 1 of 1 0 of 0 24 of 41 1 of 2 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Mar 11, 2021 (2 days before fight)
JJ Aldrich

Big Brady picks JJ Aldrich but is not confident, calling it a close fight. He notes that Casey has terrible takedown defense (37%) and Aldrich could exploit that by mixing in takedowns, though Aldrich rarely attempts them. He sees the striking as near 50-50 with a slight edge to Aldrich. He predicts a close decision, possibly 29-28 split, and advises against betting on this fight.

"I'm gonna take Aldrich here, I think she's the better fighter just by a little bit."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Mar 12, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Cortney Casey

Daniel Levi picks Cortney Casey reluctantly, reasoning that if there are no takedowns, Casey's higher output could edge a split decision. He acknowledges Casey's poor takedown defense and questionable decisions, but notes that JJ Aldridge rarely shoots for takedowns and has been stopped standing. He believes Casey's toughness and volume could be enough in a striking match.

"I'm just gonna pick courtney casey because i think she's got slightly more output and if there's no takedowns involved i think she can edge a split"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 2, 2021 (11 days before fight)
JJ Aldrich

Lock loves Aldrich's fighting style, noting she moves forward, throws combinations with heat, and has good technique. He mentions her close fight with Sabina Mazo that could have gone her way. He thinks she can cause Casey issues on the feet and is confident at -140. He questions Casey's recent form.

"i love her i love uh jj aldrich in the way that she fights... i think she could definitely cause courtney casey some issues on the feet"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Mar 7, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Cortney Casey

The Guru initially changes his mind mid-sentence but ultimately picks Cortney Casey as an underdog. He believes Casey's experience against tougher competition gives her an edge, and he criticizes JJ Aldridge's losses, particularly to Macy Barber and Sabina Mazo. He expects a scrappy fight where Casey secures a submission, specifically an armbar, in the second round. He notes that Casey has fought better opponents and her losses look better than Aldridge's.

submission in round 2
"i'm going with courtney casey by submission in the second round that's final"
Submission (rear-naked choke) R3 4:36 · UFC on ESPN: Blaydes vs. Volkov · Jun 20, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Gillian Robertson 0 22 of 55 40% 113 of 153 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Cortney Casey 0 21 of 50 42% 41 of 72 3 of 4 75% 1 0 11:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Gillian Robertson 0 3 of 13 23% 23 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Cortney Casey 0 5 of 14 35% 12 of 21 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:17
2 Gillian Robertson 0 5 of 13 38% 40 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Cortney Casey 0 12 of 16 75% 20 of 26 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:22
3 Gillian Robertson 0 14 of 29 48% 50 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Cortney Casey 0 4 of 20 20% 9 of 25 1 of 2 50% 1 0 2:26
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Gillian Robertson 22 of 55 40% 16 of 47 2 of 3 4 of 5 20 of 53 2 of 2 0 of 0
Cortney Casey 21 of 50 42% 15 of 41 2 of 4 4 of 5 8 of 33 1 of 1 12 of 16
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Gillian Robertson 3 of 13 23% 2 of 12 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cortney Casey 5 of 14 35% 5 of 12 0 of 1 0 of 1 1 of 9 0 of 0 4 of 5
2 Gillian Robertson 5 of 13 38% 4 of 11 0 of 1 1 of 1 5 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cortney Casey 12 of 16 75% 8 of 12 1 of 1 3 of 3 4 of 7 0 of 0 8 of 9
3 Gillian Robertson 14 of 29 48% 10 of 24 1 of 1 3 of 4 12 of 27 2 of 2 0 of 0
Cortney Casey 4 of 20 20% 2 of 17 1 of 2 1 of 1 3 of 17 1 of 1 0 of 2
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 17, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Big Brady picks Gillian Robertson by decision, expecting her to take Cortney Casey down repeatedly and control the fight on the ground. He notes Casey's poor takedown defense and believes Robertson will avoid striking exchanges. He acknowledges Casey's submission threat from bottom but thinks Robertson will be safe on top and may even get a ground-and-pound finish.

odds: Robertson minus 120, Casey plus 100; pick by decision
"I'm gonna go robertson by decision I think she's going to get you know a couple takedowns each round"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 18, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Cortney Casey

Daniel Levi leans toward Cortney Casey, acknowledging she will be taken down but believing she has a good guard and submission threats. He notes that Gillian Robertson checks out if she can't get an early sub, and Casey can win on the feet or via submission. Levi warns that betting Casey requires accepting early takedowns, but sees value at plus money.

"I'm going to lean Casey as well."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked Jun 14, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Cortney Casey

Casey has momentum and is bigger with a reach advantage. Robertson has a good ground game but Casey is stronger. Casey will get a submission in the first round, though it's a close fight.

submission in the first round
"I think Courtney Casey gets it done here by submission in the first round"
Submission (armbar) R1 3:36 · UFC on ESPN: Overeem vs. Harris · May 16, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Cortney Casey 0 6 of 12 50% 18 of 24 0 of 0 --- 2 0 0:00
Mara Romero Borella 0 5 of 7 71% 21 of 24 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:55
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Cortney Casey 0 6 of 12 50% 18 of 24 0 of 0 --- 2 0 0:00
Mara Romero Borella 0 5 of 7 71% 21 of 24 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:55
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Cortney Casey 6 of 12 50% 4 of 8 1 of 1 1 of 3 2 of 7 1 of 2 3 of 3
Mara Romero Borella 5 of 7 71% 2 of 4 1 of 1 2 of 2 2 of 4 2 of 2 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Cortney Casey 6 of 12 50% 4 of 8 1 of 1 1 of 3 2 of 7 1 of 2 3 of 3
Mara Romero Borella 5 of 7 71% 2 of 4 1 of 1 2 of 2 2 of 4 2 of 2 1 of 1
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked May 15, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Mara Romero Borella

Big Brady picks Mara Romero Borella by decision, noting that Borella has a takedown advantage and Casey has poor takedown defense. He acknowledges that on the feet Casey is likely better, but believes Borella can get takedowns and control time on the ground. He mentions that Borella is chinny and has been knocked out multiple times, but still favors her due to the grappling edge.

underdog +140, takedowns, control time
"I'm gonna go Sperling here she is the underdog looks like she is plus 140... I just think Burleigh can come out here get takedowns Casey has awful take ton defense"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 16, 2020 (fight day)
Cortney Casey

Daniel Levi picks Cortney Casey. He notes that Casey is the far superior fighter and tougher, despite her questionable fight IQ. He believes Borella lacks chin and confidence, and if she can't get takedowns, she loses. He expects Casey to give up early takedowns but eventually land a big shot and win.

"I think Courtney Casey is the superior fighter and the tougher fighter saw picker for that reason"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked May 14, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Mara Romero Borella

The host picks Mara Romero Borella, though he admits both fighters are not great. He cites Borella's physical advantages (shorter with longer reach) making it harder for Casey to get inside. He predicts a close, uneventful decision win for Borella.

Mara Romero Borella by decision
"I think Mara Romero Burrell is gonna get the job done I don't know how she's gonna get the job done I think she will just win by closed decision and it's gonna be pretty uneventful"
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Ngannou vs. Velasquez · Feb 17, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Cynthia Calvillo 0 73 of 176 41% 73 of 177 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Cortney Casey 0 82 of 192 42% 82 of 192 0 of 6 0% 0 0 0:58
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Cynthia Calvillo 0 24 of 58 41% 24 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Cortney Casey 0 32 of 62 51% 32 of 62 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:03
2 Cynthia Calvillo 0 22 of 52 42% 22 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Cortney Casey 0 28 of 63 44% 28 of 63 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:33
3 Cynthia Calvillo 0 27 of 66 40% 27 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Cortney Casey 0 22 of 67 32% 22 of 67 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:22
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Cynthia Calvillo 73 of 176 41% 41 of 136 6 of 8 26 of 32 72 of 175 1 of 1 0 of 0
Cortney Casey 82 of 192 42% 41 of 139 17 of 24 24 of 29 79 of 186 3 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Cynthia Calvillo 24 of 58 41% 14 of 47 2 of 2 8 of 9 24 of 58 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cortney Casey 32 of 62 51% 10 of 37 8 of 11 14 of 14 29 of 59 3 of 3 0 of 0
2 Cynthia Calvillo 22 of 52 42% 12 of 38 2 of 3 8 of 11 22 of 52 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cortney Casey 28 of 63 44% 15 of 45 7 of 10 6 of 8 28 of 61 0 of 2 0 of 0
3 Cynthia Calvillo 27 of 66 40% 15 of 51 2 of 3 10 of 12 26 of 65 1 of 1 0 of 0
Cortney Casey 22 of 67 32% 16 of 57 2 of 3 4 of 7 22 of 66 0 of 1 0 of 0
WIN vs Angela Hill
Decision (split) (30–27, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vick · Aug 25, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Cortney Casey 0 111 of 333 33% 117 of 341 1 of 6 16% 0 0 1:42
Angela Hill 0 121 of 222 54% 123 of 224 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:23
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Cortney Casey 0 29 of 98 29% 29 of 99 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:04
Angela Hill 0 33 of 65 50% 33 of 65 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:15
2 Cortney Casey 0 43 of 113 38% 47 of 117 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:38
Angela Hill 0 41 of 75 54% 43 of 77 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
3 Cortney Casey 0 39 of 122 31% 41 of 125 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Angela Hill 0 47 of 82 57% 47 of 82 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Cortney Casey 111 of 333 33% 80 of 290 17 of 28 14 of 15 100 of 321 9 of 10 2 of 2
Angela Hill 121 of 222 54% 65 of 156 34 of 41 22 of 25 110 of 211 10 of 10 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Cortney Casey 29 of 98 29% 22 of 89 2 of 4 5 of 5 26 of 95 1 of 1 2 of 2
Angela Hill 33 of 65 50% 16 of 46 7 of 8 10 of 11 29 of 61 3 of 3 1 of 1
2 Cortney Casey 43 of 113 38% 30 of 95 9 of 13 4 of 5 35 of 104 8 of 9 0 of 0
Angela Hill 41 of 75 54% 21 of 52 13 of 15 7 of 8 38 of 72 3 of 3 0 of 0
3 Cortney Casey 39 of 122 31% 28 of 106 6 of 11 5 of 5 39 of 122 0 of 0 0 of 0
Angela Hill 47 of 82 57% 28 of 58 14 of 18 5 of 6 43 of 78 4 of 4 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Cortney Casey-Sanchez vs. Angela Hill

Round 1
The strawweights come to the center of the cage, ready to go. Hill is moving quite a bit early, giving Casey plenty of angles. “Overkill” peppers the taller fighter with a quick combo upstairs, but there’s not behind it. During an exchange, Casey stumbles back and sits down; Hill lets her up. Hill goes with a slick left hook to the face, followed by a right low kick. Hill walks into a straight left, but she counters that with a left low kick. A hard right leg kick by “Overkill” follows but Casey storms back with a left and a right to the face. The two begin opening up much more and tag each other with punches to the head. Casey eats a few more punches and then opts for a takedown. Casey ties Hill up against the cage and drags her foe to the canvas. Hill wastes no time and latches on an armbar, but the Phoenix-based fighter stacks her nicely to fend it off. Casey perfectly executes the armbar escapes, but she is immediately attacked by Hill, who shoots in for a double. Back on their feet late in the round, the ladies trade solid punches. Hill tags Casey with a pair of rights to the face to seal the round in her favor. 10-9 Hill.

Round 2
The women pick up where they left off from the end of the first and trade hard punches to the head. Hill gets the better of the initial exchange, forcing Casey to shoot in for a takedown. Hill stuffs her long enough to separate and regroups to the center of the Octagon. Hill slams a left hook and right leg kick onto the taller fighter, but the Casey counters with a straight right to the jaw that snaps Hill’s head back. “Overkill” settles down and pops her foe’s head back with a series of jabs, but the Phoenix-based fighter answers with a slurry to the head and body. Casey ducks under a left hook and shoots in for a double-leg takedown. “Overkill” does a splendid job defending it and eventually separates back to the center of the cage. Hill is bleeding from the nose, but she connects with a left hook to the jaw that briefly rocks Casey. “Cast Iron” backs off but Hill chases after her. Hill lands a straight left up top and narrowly avoids a knee to the face in return. Hill lands an overhand elbow to the head during an exchange just before the horn, capturing another round. 10-9 Hill.

Round 3
Casey, likely sensing she desperately needs this round, comes out aggressively. Hill sees it and tags her with a sweeping left hook to the jab. “Cast Iron” shakes it off and goes low with a kick before coming back upstairs with a right-left that is blocked. “Overkill” clips her foe with a right behind the ear, but it doesn’t seem to faze Casey that much. Hill has some swelling around her left eye as she digs a flurry to the body. Casey, in return, fires off a pair of rights to the head. At the midway point, Hill is moving around the cage nicely; Casey seems to be growing frustrated. A stiff left jab from “Overkill” backs off the charging Casey, who then has to swallow a right cross. Hill delivers a shot to the gut just as Casey tries closing the gap. With a minute left, Casey needs to go for broke her, but “Overkill” is playing it smart by staying just out of range. Hill tags her opponent with three left jabs, a right cross and then a left to the body. Casey tries to fire back, but Hill is nowhere to be found. They trade punches for the final few moments of the fight, but nothing is too severe. 10-9 Hill (30-27 Hill).

The Official Result
Cortney Casey-Sanchez def. Angela Hill via Split Decision (30-27, 28-29, 29-28)
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on Fox: Poirier vs. Gaethje · Apr 14, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 0 61 of 84 72% 77 of 103 3 of 4 75% 0 0 6:05
Cortney Casey 0 36 of 96 37% 64 of 126 0 of 1 0% 3 0 1:42
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Michelle Waterson-Gomez 0 23 of 36 63% 27 of 40 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:37
Cortney Casey 0 16 of 38 42% 23 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:23
2 Michelle Waterson-Gomez 0 16 of 21 76% 23 of 30 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:46
Cortney Casey 0 11 of 25 44% 22 of 36 0 of 0 --- 2 0 0:23
3 Michelle Waterson-Gomez 0 22 of 27 81% 27 of 33 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:42
Cortney Casey 0 9 of 33 27% 19 of 43 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:56
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 61 of 84 72% 30 of 49 13 of 15 18 of 20 41 of 61 6 of 7 14 of 16
Cortney Casey 36 of 96 37% 22 of 79 7 of 8 7 of 9 22 of 82 9 of 9 5 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Michelle Waterson-Gomez 23 of 36 63% 11 of 20 4 of 6 8 of 10 14 of 25 3 of 4 6 of 7
Cortney Casey 16 of 38 42% 9 of 29 3 of 4 4 of 5 11 of 33 5 of 5 0 of 0
2 Michelle Waterson-Gomez 16 of 21 76% 10 of 15 1 of 1 5 of 5 9 of 13 2 of 2 5 of 6
Cortney Casey 11 of 25 44% 8 of 21 2 of 2 1 of 2 7 of 21 2 of 2 2 of 2
3 Michelle Waterson-Gomez 22 of 27 81% 9 of 14 8 of 8 5 of 5 18 of 23 1 of 1 3 of 3
Cortney Casey 9 of 33 27% 5 of 29 2 of 2 2 of 2 4 of 28 2 of 2 3 of 3