UFC on ESPN: Poirier vs. Hooker · Jun 27, 2020 · Lightweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC on ESPN: Poirier vs. Hooker Next Fight
Age 39
Height 5' 11"
Reach 74.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 32
Height 6' 3"
Reach 75"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Career Averages - Khama Worthy
4.18 SLpM
48.0% Str. Acc.
4.45 SApM
46.0% Str. Def.
0.0 TD Avg
0.0% TD Acc.
57.0% TD Def.
0.7 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Luis Peña
3.66 SLpM
46.0% Str. Acc.
3.12 SApM
51.0% Str. Def.
1.17 TD Avg
33.0% TD Acc.
48.0% TD Def.
1.2 Sub. Avg
Khama Worthy - Fight History
LOSS vs Jai Herbert
TKO (punches) R1 2:47 · UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vettori · Oct 23, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jai Herbert 0 11 of 21 52% 11 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Khama Worthy 1 24 of 46 52% 25 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jai Herbert 0 11 of 21 52% 11 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Khama Worthy 1 24 of 46 52% 25 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jai Herbert 11 of 21 52% 5 of 13 1 of 1 5 of 7 11 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0
Khama Worthy 24 of 46 52% 21 of 40 1 of 1 2 of 5 19 of 39 2 of 2 3 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jai Herbert 11 of 21 52% 5 of 13 1 of 1 5 of 7 11 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0
Khama Worthy 24 of 46 52% 21 of 40 1 of 1 2 of 5 19 of 39 2 of 2 3 of 5
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Khama Worthy vs. Jai Herbert

Round 1
Hold on to your hats, because a lightweight banger is on deck when “The Deathstar” Worthy (16-8, 2-2 UFC) seeks to become the ultimate power in the universe at the expense of “The Black Country Banger” Herbert (10-3, 0-2 UFC). Fists and feet are sure to fly, and referee Chris Tognoni may need to keep his head on a swivel from the exchanges that follow the glove touch. Worthy is jittery as he starts off the round, with his hands shaking back and forth as he tries to counter Herbert. With both preparing to counter the other, very little happens the first 30 seconds of the match. Worthy steps in with a punch to the body, and he blocks an overhand right that comes at him. The Brit fires off a body kick, and he steps out of the way from a prodding jab. Herbert slings a high kick that is blocked in time, and he chambers a body kick that collides loudly to the midsection. Worthy walks through a punch to try to land a heavy front kick, but he settles for a slapping leg kick instead. Worthy sneaks a right hand around the guard, and thumps a low calf kick to follow. As Herbert tries to pay him back, a low kick of his own gets checked. “The Deathstar” blasts Herbert with a heavy leg kick that makes Herbert do a little spin, but he gathers himself to start slinging leather. Herbert catches Worthy as he starts to unload with a brutal punching combination and a head kick in the middle. A right hand wobbles Worthy, and the continuous strikes of Herbert appear to have found the thermal exhaust port of his opponent, detonating one by one as Worthy’s legs betray him. The onslaught continues, and a left hook puts Worthy face-down down on the mat. As Worthy rolls to his side, barely grasping on to his consciousness, “The Black Country Banger” continues to bang with ferocious punches from on high. As Tognoni notices that Worthy may be out, he intervenes to stop the fight and award Herbert with his first UFC win in three tries.

The Official Result
Jai Herbert def. Khama Worthy R1 2:47 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Oct 20, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Khama Worthy

Angelo calls this a razor-thin pick. He notes that Khama has power and a good counter-striking game, while Jai is technical but gets hit a lot (1.3 strikes landed vs 2.66 absorbed). He thinks the odds are wide due to recency bias from Khama's knockout losses. He's not confident and won't bet the round line, but he likes Khama by a hair.

won't bet the 1.5 round line; considers 'does not go the distance'; likes less on Jai, more on Khama for monkey knife fight
"i do like camera here but my god is it a razor thin pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 19, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Jai Herbert

Big Brady picks Herbert as the younger, more talented fighter with height and reach advantages. He notes both fighters have poor striking defense and chins, but believes Worthy's chin is shot after seven knockout losses. He predicts a first-round knockout by Herbert, though acknowledges Worthy's power makes him live.

first round knockout
"i've gotta pick herbert here because he is the better fighter he's younger he's going to have a height advantage"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 21, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Jai Herbert

Cody picks Jai Herbert by knockout, citing Herbert's reach advantage and Worthy's notorious inability to take a punch. He notes that Worthy has been knocked out in seven of his eight losses, often in the first minute. Cody believes Herbert will find his range and land a straight right to knock Worthy out. He expects the fight to end inside one and a half rounds.

Herbert by KO/TKO; under 1.5 rounds
"i gotta go with jay herbert i think he's a talented enough guy he looked awesome in cage warriors where he was the welterweight champion"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Jai Herbert

Lock picks Herbert based on technical striking. He notes Herbert is the better boxer and should be able to outpoint Worthy. He expects Herbert to finish later in the fight as Worthy fades. He likes Herbert inside the distance.

Herbert inside the distance +100, Worthy by KO +380
"i like herbert but it's going to be difficult for me to pull the trigger here"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 21, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Jai Herbert

Paul leans towards Jai Herbert, noting his reach advantage and better cardio. He expects a high-variance fight where someone gets knocked out, and he believes it will be Worthy. However, Paul acknowledges that Herbert's chin is questionable and that he could get knocked out as well. He sees this as a firefight.

Under 1.5 rounds
"i think jai herbert probably wins on volume has better cardio i think from what we have seen and has a bit of a reach advantage so i will lean towards him here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Jai Herbert

The MMA Guru picks Jai Herbert, citing Khama Worthy's recent KO losses and questionable chin. He notes Herbert's reach advantage, first-round KO power, and better competition faced. He believes Herbert's cardio and striking will be too much for Worthy, predicting a first-round KO.

first round ko
"i'm gonna trust joy herbert to get this one done by first round ko"
LOSS vs Jamie Mullarkey
KO (punches) R1 0:46 · UFC 260: Miocic vs. Ngannou 2 · Mar 27, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jamie Mullarkey 1 6 of 13 46% 6 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Khama Worthy 0 5 of 10 50% 5 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jamie Mullarkey 1 6 of 13 46% 6 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Khama Worthy 0 5 of 10 50% 5 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jamie Mullarkey 6 of 13 46% 5 of 11 0 of 0 1 of 2 3 of 9 0 of 0 3 of 4
Khama Worthy 5 of 10 50% 3 of 8 0 of 0 2 of 2 5 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jamie Mullarkey 6 of 13 46% 5 of 11 0 of 0 1 of 2 3 of 9 0 of 0 3 of 4
Khama Worthy 5 of 10 50% 3 of 8 0 of 0 2 of 2 5 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 24, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Khama Worthy

Big Brady picks Khama Worthy to win by third-round knockout. He notes that Mullarkey is very hittable (4.60 significant strikes absorbed per minute) and has poor striking defense. He believes Worthy's power will be too much, especially as Mullarkey slows down from his wrestling-heavy approach. He also mentions that Mullarkey's takedowns may not be effective as Worthy is dangerous off his back and can reverse position.

Worthy by KO round 3; fight doesn't go to decision; under 1.5 rounds (but notes bookies were all over that)
"i'm gonna take worthy here i'm going to take worthy to win by a third round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Mar 24, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Khama Worthy

Cody leans towards Worthy, noting his tremendous power and that he is a live dog in any spot. He worries about Worthy's durability, as he has been knocked out six times, but thinks Mullarkey doesn't have the knockout power to exploit that. He believes Mullarkey will need to wrestle, but Worthy's grappling is okay and his takedown defense is decent. He calls it a 50/50 fight.

"i'm leaning towards it don't know if the fight's going to happen"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Mar 23, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Khama Worthy

Daniel Levi picks Khama Worthy to win, likely by decision, but expresses hesitation due to Worthy's questionable chin. He notes that Mullarkey has knockout power and a lot of heart, and could catch Worthy. However, Levi believes Worthy is the more physical and well-rounded fighter, and if he stays conscious, he should win. He calls it a 'dog or pass' situation.

decision
"i'm gonna go with kama worthy to to probably get a decision win here maybe not knock him out like i said malarkey is a very tough customer"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Mar 24, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Jamie Mullarkey

The host leans toward Jamie Mullarkey as a plus-money underdog. He notes Mullarkey's well-rounded game, durability, and ability to mix strikes with takedowns, as seen in the Riddell fight. He believes Mullarkey can close the distance, grind Worthy against the cage, and win a decision. He acknowledges Worthy's power and counter-striking but thinks his takedown defense and cardio are weaknesses that Mullarkey can exploit.

"I do lean malarkey here I think he's the better overall fighter"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 24, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Khama Worthy

Paul also leans towards Worthy, calling it a dogger pass. He notes that Mullarkey got hit a lot in his previous fights and that Worthy has power to capitalize. He thinks the fight is close and that the line has moved, making Worthy a slight lean. He is not confident and may flip-flop.

"i'll pick worthy"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 21, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Khama Worthy

The Guru picks Khama Worthy by split decision or 29-28, citing Worthy's cleaner technique and better cardio. He notes Worthy has fought tougher competition and has third-round finishes, while Mullarkey fades in later rounds. He expects a close, scrappy fight with Mullarkey possibly winning the first round on the ground, but Worthy pulling ahead in the second and third. He criticizes Mullarkey's sloppiness and cardio issues seen in previous fights.

"i think kamar worthy's got that savage in him he's got third round finishes in his career"
LOSS vs Ottman Azaitar
TKO (punches) R1 1:33 · UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. Hill · Sep 12, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ottman Azaitar 0 16 of 22 72% 16 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Khama Worthy 0 1 of 9 11% 1 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ottman Azaitar 0 16 of 22 72% 16 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Khama Worthy 0 1 of 9 11% 1 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ottman Azaitar 16 of 22 72% 12 of 18 4 of 4 0 of 0 3 of 5 6 of 10 7 of 7
Khama Worthy 1 of 9 11% 0 of 5 1 of 2 0 of 2 1 of 8 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ottman Azaitar 16 of 22 72% 12 of 18 4 of 4 0 of 0 3 of 5 6 of 10 7 of 7
Khama Worthy 1 of 9 11% 0 of 5 1 of 2 0 of 2 1 of 8 0 of 1 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Sep 10, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Khama Worthy

Big Brady picks Khama Worthy, noting that Worthy has rejuvenated his career since moving up to 155 lbs and has a touch of death. He acknowledges that Azaitar hits extremely hard and has been rocked in fights, but Worthy's length and reach advantage could be key. He is not betting this fight but is looking at the under.

looking at the under
"I'm going to go with worthy here i think he's going to have he's going to have a three inch reach advantage"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Sep 11, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Ottman Azaitar

The host is not a Worthy believer and thinks Azaitar's power and activity in the first round can draw out Worthy's counters and land his own. He likes Azaitar by first-round KO and mentions the prop at +350. However, he is skeptical about betting Azaitar at plus money and would prefer a better price.

Azaitar first round KO (+350); fight doesn't go to decision (-275)
"I'm gonna go with autumn to win this fight via first round ko"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 7, 2020 (5 days before fight)
Khama Worthy

The MMA Guru picks Khama Worthy, noting that Ottman Azaitar has been fed hand-picked opponents and has a criminal past but hasn't faced someone with Worthy's experience. He believes Worthy's patience and experience against tough competition will allow him to survive Azaitar's early onslaught, then slow the fight down and eventually get a third-round submission.

Third round submission
"i'm gonna go with kamal worthy getting it done moving on to the main event"
WIN vs Luis Peña
Submission (guillotine choke) R3 2:53 · UFC on ESPN: Poirier vs. Hooker · Jun 27, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Khama Worthy 0 38 of 77 49% 40 of 79 3 of 7 42% 3 0 4:13
Luis Peña 0 55 of 101 54% 66 of 114 0 of 0 --- 1 2 0:46
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Khama Worthy 0 16 of 31 51% 16 of 31 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Luis Peña 0 32 of 60 53% 32 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
2 Khama Worthy 0 9 of 15 60% 11 of 17 2 of 2 100% 3 0 3:52
Luis Peña 0 5 of 7 71% 16 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 2 0:32
3 Khama Worthy 0 13 of 31 41% 13 of 31 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:21
Luis Peña 0 18 of 34 52% 18 of 34 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:05
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Khama Worthy 38 of 77 49% 25 of 61 6 of 8 7 of 8 33 of 70 0 of 0 5 of 7
Luis Peña 55 of 101 54% 20 of 61 18 of 22 17 of 18 51 of 96 1 of 2 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Khama Worthy 16 of 31 51% 8 of 21 3 of 5 5 of 5 16 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
Luis Peña 32 of 60 53% 7 of 31 12 of 16 13 of 13 32 of 60 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Khama Worthy 9 of 15 60% 8 of 14 0 of 0 1 of 1 4 of 8 0 of 0 5 of 7
Luis Peña 5 of 7 71% 3 of 5 1 of 1 1 of 1 4 of 6 0 of 0 1 of 1
3 Khama Worthy 13 of 31 41% 9 of 26 3 of 3 1 of 2 13 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
Luis Peña 18 of 34 52% 10 of 25 5 of 5 3 of 4 15 of 30 1 of 2 2 of 2
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 24, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Luis Peña

Big Brady picks Luis Peña confidently, stating he is the better fighter in every category except power. He notes Peña's durability, striking, and submission game, and thinks Peña can take Worthy down and submit him. He believes the line should be wider and sees value at -270. He predicts a first-round submission.

Peña by submission in round 1; line -270 has value in a parlay; Worthy's only path is a KO
"I like Peña quite a bit... one of my most confident plays here... I'm gonna go Luis Peña first round submission."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 26, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Luis Peña

Daniel Levi leans with Luis Peña, citing Peña's length, volume striking, and well-rounded skills. He notes that Peña has more answers stylistically, though he still has questions about Worthy's grappling and chin. Levi thinks Peña's training at ATT and wider array of techniques will lead to a close decision win. He acknowledges Worthy's power and experience but believes Peña's volume and durability will be the difference.

Peña wins by close decision (29-28)
"I'm gonna go with him by a 29-28 decision."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2020 (5 days before fight)
Luis Peña

The MMA Guru picks Luis Peña, believing he will enforce his game plan and not stand and trade with Khama Worthy. He notes Peña's wins over Steve Garcia Jr., Matt Wiman, and Steven Peterson, and predicts Peña will take the back and dominate for a 30-27 unanimous decision. He acknowledges Worthy as a live dog but is not willing to bet on him, though he hints at a small parlay hedge.

Peña by unanimous decision (30-27); small bet on Worthy as hedge
"Luis Pena wins this one by a dominant 30-27 unanimous decision... as far as live dogs go I'm not willing to bet on it I might bet on it secretly"
WIN vs Devonte Smith
TKO (punches) R1 4:15 · UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2 · Aug 17, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Khama Worthy 0 15 of 27 55% 15 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Devonte Smith 1 21 of 51 41% 21 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Khama Worthy 0 15 of 27 55% 15 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Devonte Smith 1 21 of 51 41% 21 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Khama Worthy 15 of 27 55% 3 of 13 2 of 3 10 of 11 15 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
Devonte Smith 21 of 51 41% 9 of 30 2 of 5 10 of 16 18 of 46 0 of 0 3 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Khama Worthy 15 of 27 55% 3 of 13 2 of 3 10 of 11 15 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
Devonte Smith 21 of 51 41% 9 of 30 2 of 5 10 of 16 18 of 46 0 of 0 3 of 5
Luis Peña - Fight History
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Whittaker vs. Gastelum · Apr 17, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Luis Peña 0 90 of 195 46% 90 of 195 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Alexander Munoz 0 80 of 169 47% 82 of 172 4 of 9 44% 0 0 2:21
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Luis Peña 0 21 of 43 48% 21 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alexander Munoz 0 18 of 45 40% 20 of 48 2 of 4 50% 0 0 1:30
2 Luis Peña 0 22 of 59 37% 22 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alexander Munoz 0 29 of 48 60% 29 of 48 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:32
3 Luis Peña 0 47 of 93 50% 47 of 93 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Alexander Munoz 0 33 of 76 43% 33 of 76 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:19
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Luis Peña 90 of 195 46% 74 of 171 12 of 19 4 of 5 88 of 186 2 of 9 0 of 0
Alexander Munoz 80 of 169 47% 40 of 110 20 of 38 20 of 21 77 of 163 3 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Luis Peña 21 of 43 48% 16 of 35 4 of 7 1 of 1 20 of 40 1 of 3 0 of 0
Alexander Munoz 18 of 45 40% 10 of 31 3 of 9 5 of 5 18 of 43 0 of 2 0 of 0
2 Luis Peña 22 of 59 37% 20 of 56 1 of 1 1 of 2 21 of 57 1 of 2 0 of 0
Alexander Munoz 29 of 48 60% 15 of 33 6 of 7 8 of 8 26 of 45 3 of 3 0 of 0
3 Luis Peña 47 of 93 50% 38 of 80 7 of 11 2 of 2 47 of 89 0 of 4 0 of 0
Alexander Munoz 33 of 76 43% 15 of 46 11 of 22 7 of 8 33 of 75 0 of 1 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 15, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Luis Peña

Big Brady picks Luis Peña to win by submission. He acknowledges Peña's poor takedown defense (45%) but argues that Peña's ground game is underrated, with good submissions and reversals. He believes Peña has a striking advantage and can threaten submissions off his back. He notes that Munoz is a good wrestler but may put himself in bad positions. He sees Peña's submission as a likely outcome and mentions the submission prop at +330, though he would prefer better odds.

Submission prop at +330 considered but not bet
"i'm gonna take him to win by submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 14, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Munoz

Cody is very critical of Peña, calling him overrated with poor striking and takedown defense. He notes that Peña gives up takedowns to everyone and has no power. He thinks Munoz, a wrestler, will take Peña down and control him. He likes Munoz as an underdog and expects a better performance in his second UFC fight.

"i'm willing to take the shot i could not tell you what louise pena does well"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Apr 16, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Luis Peña

Daniel Levi hesitantly picks Luis Peña, acknowledging that Munoz is a D1 wrestler with a strong double leg. He is concerned about Peña's emotional state and past performances, especially his submission loss to Kamuela Kirk. However, Levi thinks Peña is the better overall fighter and should win if he can keep the fight at range and avoid being grinded out. He notes that this is a dog-or-pass situation from a betting perspective.

dog or pass situation
"i'm gonna still pick him for the win i think alex munoz is kind of like you know he's a coach at alpha mill"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Apr 16, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Alexander Munoz

Manpreet leans toward Munoz by decision, highlighting Peña's poor takedown defense (47%) and Munoz's strong wrestling background. He believes Munoz will repeatedly take Peña down and control him on the ground, avoiding submissions. He notes that Peña has lost as a favorite before and that Munoz's cardio should hold up for three rounds.

Munoz by decision +285
"i still do lean munos here so obviously i'm gonna be going with munoz by decision at plus 285 which isn't a bad spot"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 14, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Munoz

Paul is not high on Peña either, but he is less confident. He notes that Munoz is a wrestler and that Peña has poor takedown defense. He thinks Munoz could win by controlling the fight on the ground. He is leaning towards Munoz but not strongly.

"i'd be willing to just take anybody against louise payne at this point"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Alexander Munoz

The MMA Guru picks Alexander Munoz to win by unanimous decision, citing his superior wrestling and grappling. He notes Munoz is the wrestling coach at Team Alpha Male and has a good wrestling background. He believes Peña is a bottom-tier lightweight and that Munoz will push a good pace for three rounds, winning 30-27. He acknowledges the risk of Peña taking Munoz's back but trusts Munoz's ability.

"i'm picking alex munoz i am picking alex munoz here i think he's a little bit underrated"
LOSS vs Khama Worthy
Submission (guillotine choke) R3 2:53 · UFC on ESPN: Poirier vs. Hooker · Jun 27, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Khama Worthy 0 38 of 77 49% 40 of 79 3 of 7 42% 3 0 4:13
Luis Peña 0 55 of 101 54% 66 of 114 0 of 0 --- 1 2 0:46
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Khama Worthy 0 16 of 31 51% 16 of 31 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Luis Peña 0 32 of 60 53% 32 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
2 Khama Worthy 0 9 of 15 60% 11 of 17 2 of 2 100% 3 0 3:52
Luis Peña 0 5 of 7 71% 16 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 2 0:32
3 Khama Worthy 0 13 of 31 41% 13 of 31 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:21
Luis Peña 0 18 of 34 52% 18 of 34 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:05
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Khama Worthy 38 of 77 49% 25 of 61 6 of 8 7 of 8 33 of 70 0 of 0 5 of 7
Luis Peña 55 of 101 54% 20 of 61 18 of 22 17 of 18 51 of 96 1 of 2 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Khama Worthy 16 of 31 51% 8 of 21 3 of 5 5 of 5 16 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
Luis Peña 32 of 60 53% 7 of 31 12 of 16 13 of 13 32 of 60 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Khama Worthy 9 of 15 60% 8 of 14 0 of 0 1 of 1 4 of 8 0 of 0 5 of 7
Luis Peña 5 of 7 71% 3 of 5 1 of 1 1 of 1 4 of 6 0 of 0 1 of 1
3 Khama Worthy 13 of 31 41% 9 of 26 3 of 3 1 of 2 13 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
Luis Peña 18 of 34 52% 10 of 25 5 of 5 3 of 4 15 of 30 1 of 2 2 of 2
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 24, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Luis Peña

Big Brady picks Luis Peña confidently, stating he is the better fighter in every category except power. He notes Peña's durability, striking, and submission game, and thinks Peña can take Worthy down and submit him. He believes the line should be wider and sees value at -270. He predicts a first-round submission.

Peña by submission in round 1; line -270 has value in a parlay; Worthy's only path is a KO
"I like Peña quite a bit... one of my most confident plays here... I'm gonna go Luis Peña first round submission."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 26, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Luis Peña

Daniel Levi leans with Luis Peña, citing Peña's length, volume striking, and well-rounded skills. He notes that Peña has more answers stylistically, though he still has questions about Worthy's grappling and chin. Levi thinks Peña's training at ATT and wider array of techniques will lead to a close decision win. He acknowledges Worthy's power and experience but believes Peña's volume and durability will be the difference.

Peña wins by close decision (29-28)
"I'm gonna go with him by a 29-28 decision."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2020 (5 days before fight)
Luis Peña

The MMA Guru picks Luis Peña, believing he will enforce his game plan and not stand and trade with Khama Worthy. He notes Peña's wins over Steve Garcia Jr., Matt Wiman, and Steven Peterson, and predicts Peña will take the back and dominate for a 30-27 unanimous decision. He acknowledges Worthy as a live dog but is not willing to bet on him, though he hints at a small parlay hedge.

Peña by unanimous decision (30-27); small bet on Worthy as hedge
"Luis Pena wins this one by a dominant 30-27 unanimous decision... as far as live dogs go I'm not willing to bet on it I might bet on it secretly"
WIN vs Steve Garcia
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Benavidez vs. Figueiredo · Feb 29, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Luis Peña 0 27 of 42 64% 58 of 95 0 of 1 0% 1 0 14:01
Steve Garcia 0 21 of 39 53% 98 of 153 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:13
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Luis Peña 0 21 of 33 63% 30 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 4:10
Steve Garcia 0 15 of 26 57% 26 of 38 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:13
2 Luis Peña 0 6 of 6 100% 25 of 37 0 of 1 0% 1 0 4:54
Steve Garcia 0 4 of 7 57% 47 of 74 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Luis Peña 0 0 of 3 0% 3 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 4:57
Steve Garcia 0 2 of 6 33% 25 of 41 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Luis Peña 27 of 42 64% 24 of 38 1 of 2 2 of 2 6 of 15 2 of 3 19 of 24
Steve Garcia 21 of 39 53% 15 of 32 2 of 3 4 of 4 14 of 27 1 of 1 6 of 11
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Luis Peña 21 of 33 63% 19 of 31 0 of 0 2 of 2 5 of 13 2 of 3 14 of 17
Steve Garcia 15 of 26 57% 10 of 20 1 of 2 4 of 4 11 of 21 1 of 1 3 of 4
2 Luis Peña 6 of 6 100% 5 of 5 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 5
Steve Garcia 4 of 7 57% 4 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 0 2 of 2
3 Luis Peña 0 of 3 0% 0 of 2 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 2
Steve Garcia 2 of 6 33% 1 of 5 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 5
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Luis Pena vs. Steve Garcia

Round 1
In a lightweight contest, the man with one of the best nicknames of the sport in “Violent Bob Ross” Pena (7-2, 3-2 UFC) will try to make “Mean Machine” Garcia (11-3, 0-0 UFC) feel unwelcome in his promotional debut. The third man inside the Octagon is referee Mike King once again. The two clash legs right out of the gate, and Garcia is kicking low. Pena opens up with a right jab, and stings Garcia as the debuting fighter whiffs with a huge right hand. Garcia starts to work him over with punches, and Pena clinches up. As Pena walks him towards the cage, Pena lifts up a big knee, and Garcia catches it. When he gets leverage, he lifts Pena up and slams him down, but “Violent Bob Ross” is not down for long. He springs to his feet, and pressures Garcia until Garcia gives up his back. Pena sets up a body triangle and starts to throw long punches and elbows to try to open up Garcia’s neck for a choke. Pena lands an elbow that appears borderline legal, in both the angle and the location, and then starts landing punches until Garcia gives up the neck. Pena hunts for the rear-naked choke, and Garcia is defending it as he fights off a hook, and frees himself from the choke attempt. The punches that continue to follow from Pena have opened up the nose of Garcia, and Pena keeps his full body weight on his opponent as he tries to flatten him out. Garcia rolls around, and lands a heavy elbow from behind that makes Pena turn away. Pena goes after the neck once more, and is searching for a neck crank instead of a rear-naked choke. Pena goes palm-to-palm, but Garcia wrenches the hands free and fights up to get back to a knee. Pena slams a few elbows down, and Garcia rolls out to give his back up again. While Pena is in back control the two surprisingly trade elbows, and the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Pena
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Pena
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-8 Pena

Round 2
Garcia charges out of his corner like his hair is on fire, landing a superman punch and chasing after him with punches and kicks. In the flurry, Garcia puts himself in danger, and Pena is quick to circle out and take his opponent’s back quickly. Pena tries to jump on Garcia’s back to bully him down, but instead lets go and just drags him down while maintaining the back position. Pena sets up a body lock, and Pena is aiming for the choke while Garcia fights it off by controlling one wrist with both hands. Garcia turns around for a moment, lands an unexpectedly powerful elbow, and turns back while he fights free. “Mean Machine” starts elbowing the thighs of his adversary to break the lock, all while Pena is punching him in the head. Garcia lands some effective strikes again from behind his head, but “Violent Bob Ross” ignores them as he goes after the choke. He cinches up a rear-naked choke that is not under the chin, and Garcia grits it out and lets Pena try to burn his arms out. Garcia continues to throw blind punches behind him, and most of them land, but he is unable to escape from danger as Pena holds tight. Garcia continues to slug it out without seeing his target, and he appears to mark up the eye of his foe. Garcia is throwing double hammer fists and swinging at him while the two start screaming at each other. Garcia is a madman as he keeps throwing and shouts "Let's go," and earns Pena’s respect as the two embrace when we hear the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Pena
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Pena
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Pena

Round 3
This time, Pena leaps in the air to start the round, and bowls Garcia over. As Garcia goes down, Pena falls face down into a triangle choke attempt, and Garcia tightens his legs up from around Pena’s neck. Pena is in the danger zone now, and Garcia nearly wraps up a triangle armbar, until Pena stands upright and Garcia falls off. “Violent Bob Ross” uses the moment of confusion to grab the back of Garcia again, and we return to the position where we spent the majority of the last frame. Pena tries to go after another rear-naked choke from a different angle, and Garcia is able to defend it by not pulling on the wrists but instead punching Pena in the head. Pena readjusts, and squeezes for more of a palm-to-palm neck crank, and lets go but sinks in the body triangle. “Mean Machine” twists and turns to end up on top, but Pena is just able to fight him off and stay with back control. Garcia elects to land punches and elbows with his adversary behind him, and some of these elbows are doing damage as Pena’s nose has started to bleed. Pena again snatches up a rear-naked choke, but only briefly, as Garcia squirms and fights it off once more. Garcia throws a barrage of strikes including more double hammer fists, and Pena opts to throw right back at him. The “slugfest” from an unusual position ends with the horn, and a valiant but largely nullified Garcia bellows as he is upset by his performance.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Pena (30-27 Pena)
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Pena (30-27 Pena)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Pena (30-26 Pena)

The Official Result
Luis Pena def. Steve Garcia via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
LOSS vs Matt Frevola
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Waterson · Oct 12, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Matt Frevola 0 48 of 110 43% 51 of 115 4 of 7 57% 0 0 2:50
Luis Peña 0 51 of 120 42% 60 of 129 1 of 2 50% 2 3 1:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Matt Frevola 0 15 of 45 33% 15 of 45 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:07
Luis Peña 0 13 of 35 37% 21 of 43 1 of 2 50% 0 1 0:52
2 Matt Frevola 0 10 of 26 38% 13 of 31 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:00
Luis Peña 0 26 of 49 53% 27 of 50 0 of 0 --- 2 2 0:13
3 Matt Frevola 0 23 of 39 58% 23 of 39 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:43
Luis Peña 0 12 of 36 33% 12 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Matt Frevola 48 of 110 43% 27 of 82 10 of 17 11 of 11 46 of 105 2 of 5 0 of 0
Luis Peña 51 of 120 42% 43 of 104 7 of 15 1 of 1 37 of 101 8 of 10 6 of 9
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Matt Frevola 15 of 45 33% 7 of 32 2 of 7 6 of 6 14 of 41 1 of 4 0 of 0
Luis Peña 13 of 35 37% 11 of 27 2 of 8 0 of 0 9 of 29 4 of 6 0 of 0
2 Matt Frevola 10 of 26 38% 5 of 21 2 of 2 3 of 3 9 of 25 1 of 1 0 of 0
Luis Peña 26 of 49 53% 21 of 43 5 of 6 0 of 0 16 of 36 4 of 4 6 of 9
3 Matt Frevola 23 of 39 58% 15 of 29 6 of 8 2 of 2 23 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Luis Peña 12 of 36 33% 11 of 34 0 of 1 1 of 1 12 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Luis Pena vs. Matt Frevola

Round 1
Pena (7-1, 3-1 UFC), who was recently
the inaugural guest on Sherdog.com contributor Jordan Colbert's new show "Blunt Force Trauma"
is up next, as he clashes with Serra-Longo Fight Team standout Frevola (7-1-1, 1-1-1 UFC). Serving as the referee for this lightweight fight is Herb Dean. There is no touch of gloves, as Frevola charges in with strikes, swinging with everything he has in the opening seconds of the round. "The Steamrolla" wings two huge hooks that fall short, but he lands several leg kicks to Pena's outstretched lead leg. While Frevola is unable to connect with these huge right hands, he is working the right leg of Pena often. As Frevola ducks down to throw one of those rights, Pena throws a heavy body kick. Frevola stings Pena with a right, backing "Violent Bob Ross" up and scoring a takedown, although Pena gets right back up. Frevola clips Frevola with a one-two, and Frevola responds with that big right again. Frevola shoots in low for a single, and as Pena almost escapes, Frevola lifts him up and slams him down. On his back, Pena pulls for an exceptionally unorthodox head-and-arm choke to get Frevola locked up, and Pena uses the submission attempt to sweep Frevola. As they scramble, they return standing, so Pena unloads a few short knees as he clinches up and tries to take Frevola down. As Frevola breaks away, Pena fires off a long combination that hurts Frevola, and "The Steamrolla" responds with a right hand that catches Pena on the chin. The two men trade until the time expires to end the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Frevola
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Frevola
Cole Shelton scores the round: 10-9 Pena

Round 2
Pena rushes out from his corner to start the action, and he clips Frevola right out of the gate, opening a cut under Frevola's left eye. Pena fakes for a loopy swing with his arm and leaps in the air with a knee, catching Frevola flush and sending him staggering. Pena pulls Frevola down and goes after a kimura, but Frevola yanks his arm out and stands up. As he gets to his feet, Pena cracks Frevola with several more knees, and Frevola's face is showing more and more damage. Pena looks comfortable with his timing, working the right jab and busting up Frevola under his right eye. A combination from Pena sends the gumshield hurling out of Frevola's mouth, so he strolls over to pick it up as Dean pauses the action. Frevola closes the distance with a superman punch, but not before Pena kicks him in the face. Pena goes for that same arm swinging-flying knee attack, but Frevola sees it coming and dodges out of the way. Pena fires a big head kick and lands it squarely, but it is Pena who falls over. "The Steamrolla" charges in, and he cannot capitalize on it as Pena gets back up. Frevola shoots in for a takedown, and Pena fishes for a kimura off his back before switching to a triangle choke setup. Frevola pushes the legs away and tries to start ground-and-pound. As Pena explodes to his feet, Frevola says "not so fast, my friend" and suplexes Pena. "Violent Bob Ross" scrambles out of the position and ends up in control of Frevola's back with seconds to go, and he drops down a few punches before the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Pena
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Pena
Cole Shelton scores the round: 10-9 Pena

Round 3
The final round opens up with Pena trying to keep the distance, backing away when Frevola comes at him and pumping a right jab in Frevola's face. Frevola jumps with a front kick to the body, and Pena tries to come back at him with a straight right. "The Steamrolla" rumbles forward and digs to the body, but comes up short when trying to fire a right over the top. "Violent Bob Ross" launches up a head kick and Frevola barely blocks it in time, and the mere impact of the kick makes Frevola lose his footing briefly. The crowd starts chanting "Steamrolla," and an energized Frevola blitzes in and tags Pena. Pena tries to pull off his tricky flying knee again, and as Frevola avoids the assault, he clips Pena with a straight right to send Pena falling backwards. Pena recovers, pushes Frevola away, and looks to set the jab up again. Frevola counters over the top with a left, and then thumps a right to the body. Seeing his foe may be tired, Pena leaps in with another knee, but Frevola scampers away by circling off the cage. Frevola clips Pena with a right, and then a left, but Pena is coming on strong and lands hard with a left of his own. With 10 seconds remaining, Frevola shoots in for a takedown to try to steal the round, and as the horn sounds, it's anyone's guess who goes home with the win.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Frevola (29-28 Frevola)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Frevola (29-28 Frevola)
Cole Shelton scores the round: 10-9 Frevola (29-28 Pena)

The Official Result
Matt Frevola def. Luis Pena via Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
WIN vs Matt Wiman
TKO (punches) R3 1:14 · UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Korean Zombie · Jun 22, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Luis Peña 0 24 of 42 57% 28 of 46 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:14
Matt Wiman 0 87 of 148 58% 98 of 160 1 of 1 100% 1 1 7:32
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Luis Peña 0 8 of 14 57% 10 of 16 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:10
Matt Wiman 0 35 of 65 53% 38 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 1 3:09
2 Luis Peña 0 9 of 15 60% 11 of 17 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:04
Matt Wiman 0 29 of 40 72% 37 of 49 1 of 1 100% 1 0 4:03
3 Luis Peña 0 7 of 13 53% 7 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Matt Wiman 0 23 of 43 53% 23 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:20
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Luis Peña 24 of 42 57% 2 of 18 3 of 4 19 of 20 24 of 36 0 of 2 0 of 4
Matt Wiman 87 of 148 58% 84 of 144 3 of 4 0 of 0 18 of 45 9 of 12 60 of 91
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Luis Peña 8 of 14 57% 0 of 4 0 of 1 8 of 9 8 of 11 0 of 2 0 of 1
Matt Wiman 35 of 65 53% 33 of 62 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 11 9 of 12 26 of 42
2 Luis Peña 9 of 15 60% 2 of 8 2 of 2 5 of 5 9 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 3
Matt Wiman 29 of 40 72% 29 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0 8 of 14 0 of 0 21 of 26
3 Luis Peña 7 of 13 53% 0 of 6 1 of 1 6 of 6 7 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Matt Wiman 23 of 43 53% 22 of 42 1 of 1 0 of 0 10 of 20 0 of 0 13 of 23
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Pettis · Mar 23, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Luis Peña 0 52 of 112 46% 66 of 127 1 of 3 33% 0 2 4:47
Steven Peterson 0 34 of 85 40% 57 of 109 4 of 8 50% 1 0 5:09
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Luis Peña 0 16 of 29 55% 21 of 34 0 of 1 0% 0 1 2:14
Steven Peterson 0 13 of 31 41% 21 of 40 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:18
2 Luis Peña 0 23 of 57 40% 26 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:22
Steven Peterson 0 14 of 41 34% 20 of 47 3 of 3 100% 0 0 2:30
3 Luis Peña 0 13 of 26 50% 19 of 33 1 of 2 50% 0 1 2:11
Steven Peterson 0 7 of 13 53% 16 of 22 0 of 2 0% 1 0 1:21
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Luis Peña 52 of 112 46% 43 of 102 9 of 10 0 of 0 36 of 83 12 of 24 4 of 5
Steven Peterson 34 of 85 40% 15 of 63 9 of 12 10 of 10 27 of 75 7 of 10 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Luis Peña 16 of 29 55% 13 of 26 3 of 3 0 of 0 7 of 16 7 of 11 2 of 2
Steven Peterson 13 of 31 41% 2 of 18 5 of 7 6 of 6 10 of 25 3 of 6 0 of 0
2 Luis Peña 23 of 57 40% 19 of 52 4 of 5 0 of 0 20 of 46 3 of 11 0 of 0
Steven Peterson 14 of 41 34% 8 of 34 3 of 4 3 of 3 11 of 38 3 of 3 0 of 0
3 Luis Peña 13 of 26 50% 11 of 24 2 of 2 0 of 0 9 of 21 2 of 2 2 of 3
Steven Peterson 7 of 13 53% 5 of 11 1 of 1 1 of 1 6 of 12 1 of 1 0 of 0
LOSS vs Michael Trizano
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Korean Zombie vs. Rodríguez · Nov 10, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Michael Trizano 0 51 of 100 51% 55 of 104 1 of 2 50% 1 1 2:14
Luis Peña 0 23 of 85 27% 34 of 97 1 of 9 11% 0 1 5:26
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Michael Trizano 0 11 of 18 61% 11 of 18 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:25
Luis Peña 0 7 of 31 22% 9 of 33 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:55
2 Michael Trizano 0 17 of 36 47% 20 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:12
Luis Peña 0 7 of 25 28% 14 of 33 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:49
3 Michael Trizano 0 23 of 46 50% 24 of 47 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:37
Luis Peña 0 9 of 29 31% 11 of 31 1 of 3 33% 0 1 1:42
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Michael Trizano 51 of 100 51% 25 of 68 10 of 16 16 of 16 37 of 85 9 of 9 5 of 6
Luis Peña 23 of 85 27% 12 of 68 9 of 15 2 of 2 20 of 80 2 of 4 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Michael Trizano 11 of 18 61% 0 of 5 2 of 4 9 of 9 10 of 17 1 of 1 0 of 0
Luis Peña 7 of 31 22% 3 of 23 3 of 7 1 of 1 7 of 29 0 of 2 0 of 0
2 Michael Trizano 17 of 36 47% 12 of 28 2 of 5 3 of 3 7 of 25 6 of 6 4 of 5
Luis Peña 7 of 25 28% 2 of 19 4 of 5 1 of 1 7 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Michael Trizano 23 of 46 50% 13 of 35 6 of 7 4 of 4 20 of 43 2 of 2 1 of 1
Luis Peña 9 of 29 31% 7 of 26 2 of 3 0 of 0 6 of 26 2 of 2 1 of 1
Submission (guillotine choke) R1 3:32 · The Ultimate Fighter: Undefeated Finale · Jul 06, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Luis Peña 1 8 of 23 34% 8 of 23 1 of 1 100% 1 1 1:02
Richie Smullen 0 7 of 9 77% 15 of 17 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:40
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Luis Peña 1 8 of 23 34% 8 of 23 1 of 1 100% 1 1 1:02
Richie Smullen 0 7 of 9 77% 15 of 17 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:40
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Luis Peña 8 of 23 34% 8 of 22 0 of 1 0 of 0 8 of 20 0 of 1 0 of 2
Richie Smullen 7 of 9 77% 3 of 5 1 of 1 3 of 3 3 of 5 0 of 0 4 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Luis Peña 8 of 23 34% 8 of 22 0 of 1 0 of 0 8 of 20 0 of 1 0 of 2
Richie Smullen 7 of 9 77% 3 of 5 1 of 1 3 of 3 3 of 5 0 of 0 4 of 4
Expert Picks (3)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 24, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Luis Peña

Big Brady picks Luis Peña confidently, stating he is the better fighter in every category except power. He notes Peña's durability, striking, and submission game, and thinks Peña can take Worthy down and submit him. He believes the line should be wider and sees value at -270. He predicts a first-round submission.

Peña by submission in round 1; line -270 has value in a parlay; Worthy's only path is a KO
"I like Peña quite a bit... one of my most confident plays here... I'm gonna go Luis Peña first round submission."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 26, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Luis Peña

Daniel Levi leans with Luis Peña, citing Peña's length, volume striking, and well-rounded skills. He notes that Peña has more answers stylistically, though he still has questions about Worthy's grappling and chin. Levi thinks Peña's training at ATT and wider array of techniques will lead to a close decision win. He acknowledges Worthy's power and experience but believes Peña's volume and durability will be the difference.

Peña wins by close decision (29-28)
"I'm gonna go with him by a 29-28 decision."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2020 (5 days before fight)
Luis Peña

The MMA Guru picks Luis Peña, believing he will enforce his game plan and not stand and trade with Khama Worthy. He notes Peña's wins over Steve Garcia Jr., Matt Wiman, and Steven Peterson, and predicts Peña will take the back and dominate for a 30-27 unanimous decision. He acknowledges Worthy as a live dog but is not willing to bet on him, though he hints at a small parlay hedge.

Peña by unanimous decision (30-27); small bet on Worthy as hedge
"Luis Pena wins this one by a dominant 30-27 unanimous decision... as far as live dogs go I'm not willing to bet on it I might bet on it secretly"