UFC on ESPN: dos Anjos vs. Edwards · Jul 20, 2019 · Bantamweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC on ESPN: dos Anjos vs. Edwards Next Fight
Age 32
Height 5' 9"
Reach 69.0"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Switch
Age 33
Height 5' 6"
Reach 69.0"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Mario Bautista
5.3 SLpM
48.0% Str. Acc.
3.98 SApM
54.0% Str. Def.
1.91 TD Avg
38.0% TD Acc.
55.0% TD Def.
0.8 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Jin Soo Son
5.1 SLpM
36.0% Str. Acc.
7.63 SApM
52.0% Str. Def.
1.5 TD Avg
25.0% TD Acc.
100.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Mario Bautista - Fight History
SCHED vs Cory Sandhagen
UFC 329 · Jul 11, 2026
Submission R2 4:46 · UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · Feb 07, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mario Bautista 0 15 of 27 55% 49 of 63 5 of 7 71% 1 0 5:47
Vinicius Oliveira 0 12 of 21 57% 18 of 27 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:39
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mario Bautista 0 3 of 9 33% 22 of 29 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:18
Vinicius Oliveira 0 6 of 8 75% 8 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:39
2 Mario Bautista 0 12 of 18 66% 27 of 34 4 of 5 80% 1 0 3:29
Vinicius Oliveira 0 6 of 13 46% 10 of 17 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mario Bautista 15 of 27 55% 10 of 20 5 of 6 0 of 1 6 of 12 0 of 2 9 of 13
Vinicius Oliveira 12 of 21 57% 3 of 10 3 of 5 6 of 6 9 of 18 3 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mario Bautista 3 of 9 33% 1 of 7 2 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 4 0 of 0 2 of 5
Vinicius Oliveira 6 of 8 75% 0 of 1 3 of 4 3 of 3 4 of 6 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Mario Bautista 12 of 18 66% 9 of 13 3 of 4 0 of 1 5 of 8 0 of 2 7 of 8
Vinicius Oliveira 6 of 13 46% 3 of 9 0 of 1 3 of 3 5 of 12 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 1, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Angelo picks Mario Bautista, believing he is the better technical fighter with cleaner striking and better wrestling. He acknowledges Vinicius Oliveira's insane pace but thinks Bautista can match it and fight for 25 minutes. He notes that Bautista's last fight against Umar Nurmagomedov was close and impressive, and he expects Bautista to go dog for dog with Oliveira and come out on top.

"Mario Batista is going to be the pick. I think Mario can go dog for dog with Venicious and he's the better fighter."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 1, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Big Brady picks Mario Bautista, citing his superior grappling and cardio. He notes that Vinicius Oliveira has shown vulnerability on the ground, as seen in his fight against Bernardo Sopai. Bautista hasn't used his grappling recently due to tough opponents, but Brady expects him to take Oliveira down and submit him in the third round.

by third round submission
"I'm going to take Mario Batista to win this fight. I'm going to say he wins this fight by third round submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 4, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Vinicius Oliveira

Cody picks Vinicius Oliveira as an underdog, comparing him to Carlos Prates and Alex Pereira for his pressure and power. He argues Oliveira's constant forward pressure and size will overwhelm Bautista, who lacks one-shot power. Cody believes Oliveira's momentum and damage output will sway judges, especially in the Apex where damage is prioritized.

"I think I'm going to go the opposite end on Venicius Olivera... this guy's about as big as 135 pounds as you're possibly going to get."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 5, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Connor agrees with Zane, citing Bautista's technical lockdown and ability to handle pressure. He compares Oliveira to Dricus du Plessis in terms of being a 'vibes fighter' who can overwhelm opponents, but believes Bautista's scrambling and experience against elite pressure (like Aldo) give him the edge. He notes Oliveira's tendency to get tired and be hittable.

Same odds discussion as Zane.
"I still have to lean in the direction of Batista as well."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Feb 1, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Lucrative James picks Mario Bautista to win inside the distance, likely by submission in the championship rounds. He emphasizes Bautista's superior cardio and pace, especially in a five-round fight, and notes that Oliveira has been finished in all his losses. James believes Oliveira will gas out in rounds 4-5, allowing Bautista to take over and secure a finish.

under 4.5 rounds, Mario Bautista wins in round 4 or 5
"My prediction will be Mario Batista to get this one done in the championship rounds inside the distance, probably submission for the first time in Venicious Olivivera's career."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 3, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

The host picks Bautista inside the distance, likely in round 4. He believes Bautista's fight IQ, cardio, and game planning will allow him to contain Oliveira's reckless aggression and take over as Oliveira gasses. He notes Bautista can match Oliveira's violence and has a cardio edge, and expects him to find a finish in the later rounds.

inside the distance
"So, give me Maru Bautista inside the distance."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 4, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Paul picks Mario Bautista, citing concerns about Oliveira's gas tank in a five-round fight. He notes Bautista's durability and ability to control the cage, similar to his fight against Jose Aldo. Paul expects Bautista to stick to a game plan and potentially win by decision, suggesting live betting on Bautista in later rounds.

over 2.5 rounds, fight goes the distance
"My concerns for Olive Vera here, obviously he's had quite the run... I do have concerns about his gas tank in a five round fight."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2026 (fight day)
Mario Bautista

The host picks Mario Bautista over Vinicius Oliveira. He thinks Oliveira is a size bully with sloppy technique, and Bautista is equally big but technically superior. He notes Bautista's pace and pressure, and his performance against Ricky Simon was more impressive than Oliveira's. He predicts a 4-1 decision win for Bautista.

decision 4 rounds to 1
"I think he'll win a decision, five four rounds to one. A four rounds to one decision win for Mario Bautista."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 5, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Zane leans toward Bautista because of his proven ability to handle pressure fighters, as seen in his win over Jose Aldo. He notes that Oliveira is dangerous but reckless, often getting hurt in fights, and Bautista's scrambling and timing should allow him to capitalize. However, he acknowledges Oliveira's physicality and durability could make it a war.

Bautista opened at -140, currently -160; Oliveira opened at +120, currently +140. Zane thinks the line is fair and could go to -200.
"I still have to lean in the direction of Batista as well."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 321 · Oct 25, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Umar Nurmagomedov 0 32 of 54 59% 81 of 105 11 of 14 78% 0 0 10:46
Mario Bautista 1 20 of 54 37% 33 of 67 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Umar Nurmagomedov 0 5 of 6 83% 32 of 34 2 of 2 100% 0 0 4:37
Mario Bautista 0 1 of 1 100% 8 of 8 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
2 Umar Nurmagomedov 0 12 of 21 57% 29 of 39 2 of 3 66% 0 0 3:02
Mario Bautista 1 9 of 28 32% 14 of 33 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:04
3 Umar Nurmagomedov 0 15 of 27 55% 20 of 32 7 of 9 77% 0 0 3:07
Mario Bautista 0 10 of 25 40% 11 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Umar Nurmagomedov 32 of 54 59% 24 of 44 6 of 8 2 of 2 23 of 44 2 of 2 7 of 8
Mario Bautista 20 of 54 37% 6 of 37 11 of 14 3 of 3 17 of 50 2 of 3 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Umar Nurmagomedov 5 of 6 83% 5 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 5 of 6
Mario Bautista 1 of 1 100% 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Umar Nurmagomedov 12 of 21 57% 10 of 18 2 of 3 0 of 0 12 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0
Mario Bautista 9 of 28 32% 3 of 19 4 of 7 2 of 2 8 of 26 0 of 1 1 of 1
3 Umar Nurmagomedov 15 of 27 55% 9 of 20 4 of 5 2 of 2 11 of 23 2 of 2 2 of 2
Mario Bautista 10 of 25 40% 3 of 18 6 of 6 1 of 1 8 of 23 2 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 19, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Angelo picks Umar Nurmagomedov, arguing he won the first two rounds against Merab before breaking his hand. He believes Umar's range management, wrestling, and cardio will be too much for Mario Bautista, who has benefited from fighting older or less active opponents. Angelo is confident Umar wins a three-round fight.

Minus 420, he'll probably look it.
"Umar's going to be the pick. I don't think Mario's going to get away with that random forward or cage control pressure. ... It's three rounds, Umar wins this fight. Minus 420, he'll probably look it."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Big Brady is extremely confident in Umar Nurmagomedov, calling him the second-best bantamweight in the UFC. He believes Umar is superior in striking, wrestling, and grappling, and expects him to take down Bautista, get to his back, and submit him. Brady notes Bautista has been finished in both losses and that Umar needs a statement to earn a title shot. He predicts a second-round submission.

Umar by second round submission
"I think Umar Nurmagomedov is going to take down Bautista and finish him here on the mat. Give me Umar Nurmagomedov to win this fight by second round submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Cody picks Umar Nurmagomedov despite the steep -625 price, citing his wrestling and striking superiority. He notes that Umar took down Merab and Sandhagen multiple times, and Bautista has been taken down by lesser wrestlers. Cody believes Umar will win the first two rounds and hold on in the third, with the Abu Dhabi crowd favoring him. He also mentions that Bautista's path to victory likely requires a KO, which is unlikely.

"I do think Umar probably is a little bit better than Mario Bautista in every element."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Connor also picks Nurmagomedov, emphasizing his superior striking fundamentals and fight IQ. He notes Bautista's tendency to start slow or fade, and believes Umar's ability to control range and pace will be decisive. Connor thinks Bautista will be competitive but ultimately outworked over three rounds.

"So picking new, uh, Nirmagamad off, but that, you know, VOC should be recognizing stuff like this from what it is, uh, Umar is a huge favorite."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Oct 23, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Daniel Vreeland is hesitant due to the steep odds (-625) and Bautista's eight-fight win streak, but he believes Umar's wrestling and the Abu Dhabi advantage will secure a decision. He notes that Bautista struggles to finish higher-level opponents and that a Nurmagomedov won't lose a decision in Abu Dhabi. He calls it a 'dog or pass' situation but picks Umar.

wins by decision
"I'm going to go Umar Nurmagomedov to win this decision."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Oct 20, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Lucrative James picks Umar Nurmagomedov confidently, stating he is better in all realms of MMA: striking, wrestling, and grappling. He believes Mario Bautista is a level below and that Umar's kicks, footwork, and takedowns will be too much. He expects Umar to win by 30-27 decision or rear-naked choke submission, and notes that Umar has been in Abu Dhabi for a month to acclimatize. He also mentions improvements in Umar's cardio after the Merab loss.

30-27 decision or rear-naked choke submission
"I think it's a 3027 or a submission rear naked choke win from Uma. I think it's a confident win here."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

The host thinks Nurmagomedov has Bautista covered everywhere but expects the fight to be closer than the odds indicate. He mentions a small shot on Bautista for some people but officially picks Nurmagomedov by decision.

small shot on Bautista for some people
"I don't mind a small shot on Bautista for some people, but as an official prediction, I'm going to go Nurmagamedov by decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Paul leans Umar but is hesitant due to the price. He notes that Bautista is rock solid and capable of giving anyone a good fight, and that the line should be closer to -225. However, he acknowledges Umar's competitive performance against Merab and his wrestling advantage. Paul suggests that if Bautista wins, it would likely require a KO, and points out the plus 1800 line on Bautista KO as a potential fun bet.

"I don't love the line. I don't love the line. But I do think Umar probably is a little bit better than Mario Bautista in every element."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 21, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

The MMA Guru picks Umar Nurmagomedov by decision, expecting a 30-27 or 29-28 win. He believes Umar's flicky kicks and takedowns will give Mario Bautista problems, and that Bautista's recent wins (over Patchy Mix, Damon Blackshear) have aged poorly. He notes that Umar gave Merab Dvalishvili a tough fight and nearly beat him, while Bautista is not at that level. He predicts Umar will drag Bautista down against the cage and control the fight, though Bautista may have a good round.

mentioned in a PrizePicks parlay for more than 2.5 total rounds
"I've got Umar dragging him down against the cage, knee to the thigh, one hook in, maybe gets the back at the end of one of the rounds."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Zane picks Nurmagomedov, praising his technical striking, feints, and well-rounded game. He believes Bautista's pressure style will struggle against Umar's disciplined jab and distance management. Zane notes Bautista's scrambling ability but thinks Umar's consistency over three rounds will secure the win, though he wishes it were five rounds.

Umar by decision or submission
"In three rounds, I really do just have to pick Umar. Whether it's Batista taking time to cool down or taking time to heat up. I think either way, it spells disaster for Batista."
CANCEL vs Marlon Vera
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert picked Jun 1, 2025 (6 days before fight)

This fight was originally scheduled but Chito Vera dropped out. The matchup was replaced with Mario Bautista vs Patchy Mix. Angelo does not discuss the original matchup at all, so no pick is made.

"Mario was supposed to fight Cheeto Vera, but Cheeto dropped."
WIN vs Patchy Mix
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · Jun 07, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mario Bautista 0 173 of 302 57% 173 of 302 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Patchy Mix 0 122 of 304 40% 122 of 304 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mario Bautista 0 43 of 91 47% 43 of 91 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Patchy Mix 0 36 of 74 48% 36 of 74 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Mario Bautista 0 65 of 103 63% 65 of 103 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Patchy Mix 0 59 of 111 53% 59 of 111 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Mario Bautista 0 65 of 108 60% 65 of 108 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Patchy Mix 0 27 of 119 22% 27 of 119 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mario Bautista 173 of 302 57% 96 of 216 58 of 66 19 of 20 172 of 301 1 of 1 0 of 0
Patchy Mix 122 of 304 40% 92 of 265 14 of 22 16 of 17 118 of 299 4 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mario Bautista 43 of 91 47% 18 of 60 18 of 24 7 of 7 43 of 91 0 of 0 0 of 0
Patchy Mix 36 of 74 48% 22 of 58 5 of 7 9 of 9 35 of 73 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Mario Bautista 65 of 103 63% 42 of 78 20 of 21 3 of 4 64 of 102 1 of 1 0 of 0
Patchy Mix 59 of 111 53% 49 of 96 5 of 9 5 of 6 56 of 108 3 of 3 0 of 0
3 Mario Bautista 65 of 108 60% 36 of 78 20 of 21 9 of 9 65 of 108 0 of 0 0 of 0
Patchy Mix 27 of 119 22% 21 of 111 4 of 6 2 of 2 27 of 118 0 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Patchy Mix

Angelo picks Patchy Mix despite Mario Bautista's seven-fight win streak. He notes Patchy is a dangerous grappler with 13 submission wins, but is one-dimensional. He thinks if Mario defends takedowns, he can win striking exchanges. However, he is influenced by Josh Thompson's confidence in Patchy and believes Mario's win over Aldo was a bad decision, so MMA karma may favor Patchy.

"I am going to pick Patchy though. ... Josh's confidence in Patchy and how good he is and how he's going to dominate here is pretty contagious."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 3, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Patchy Mix

Big Brady picks Patchy Mix, citing his elite grappling and guillotine. He believes Mix will get Bautista down and stay there, eventually finding a submission. He questions Bautista's resume, noting close fights against Blackshear and Aldo, and thinks there is a levels difference in grappling. He predicts Mix by second-round submission.

Mix by submission in round 2
"I think Patchy gets Batista down here. And once he gets him down, I think he's staying there."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Jun 5, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Patchy Mix

Connor picks Patchy Mix, believing his elite grappling and ability to take Bautista down early and control him will be decisive. He acknowledges Bautista's scrambling is excellent but thinks Mix's positional grappling and backpacking style can neutralize Bautista's pressure. Connor admits it's a tough fight and Bautista could win if Mix fades.

Odds: Mix -174, Bautista +157. Connor thinks the odds are fair.
"I think I'm going to pick Patchy Mix."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Bautista is expected to shut down Mix's grappling game and then outstrike him on the feet, showcasing that he is the better striker. He will put together more damage and win on the scorecards.

"I think that we're going to see Bautista shut down the grappling game of Mitch or Mix and then eventually outstrike him on the feet, showcasing that he is the better striker and from there he'll be able to put …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Patchy Mix

The MMA Guru picks Patchy Mix to finish Mario Bautista, citing Mix's impressive resume including wins over Horiguchi, Magomedov, and Pettis. He believes Mix is in his prime and has too much finishing potential. He predicts Mix will drop Bautista and submit him with a guillotine or anaconda choke in the first or second round. He criticizes Bautista's performance against Aldo.

Finish prediction: first or second round submission (guillotine or anaconda). Mentions a $10K bonus for a brutal finish.
"I've got Patchy Mix finishing Mario Batista and there's 10K on it."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Jun 5, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Zane picks Mario Bautista, citing his relentless pressure, excellent scrambling, and ability to win fights even after being taken down. He notes that Bautista's takedown defense is not great but he is a brilliant scrambler who wears opponents down. Zane thinks Mix's low output striking and reliance on takedowns may not be enough to keep Bautista off him for three rounds.

Odds: Mix -174, Bautista +157. Zane thinks the odds are close and reasonable.
"I got to pick Mario Batista here."
WIN vs José Aldo
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · Oct 05, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mario Bautista 0 51 of 117 43% 65 of 139 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
José Aldo 0 49 of 142 34% 90 of 196 0 of 10 0% 0 0 7:15
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mario Bautista 0 13 of 26 50% 20 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
José Aldo 0 20 of 53 37% 40 of 81 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:20
2 Mario Bautista 0 21 of 43 48% 25 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
José Aldo 0 19 of 53 35% 31 of 65 0 of 4 0% 0 0 2:14
3 Mario Bautista 0 17 of 48 35% 20 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
José Aldo 0 10 of 36 27% 19 of 50 0 of 4 0% 0 0 2:41
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mario Bautista 51 of 117 43% 41 of 105 6 of 8 4 of 4 46 of 111 2 of 3 3 of 3
José Aldo 49 of 142 34% 26 of 111 12 of 19 11 of 12 44 of 136 5 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mario Bautista 13 of 26 50% 8 of 21 1 of 1 4 of 4 12 of 25 1 of 1 0 of 0
José Aldo 20 of 53 37% 8 of 39 5 of 6 7 of 8 15 of 48 5 of 5 0 of 0
2 Mario Bautista 21 of 43 48% 19 of 40 2 of 3 0 of 0 18 of 40 0 of 0 3 of 3
José Aldo 19 of 53 35% 15 of 46 2 of 5 2 of 2 19 of 52 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Mario Bautista 17 of 48 35% 14 of 44 3 of 4 0 of 0 16 of 46 1 of 2 0 of 0
José Aldo 10 of 36 27% 3 of 26 5 of 8 2 of 2 10 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 29, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Angelo picks Mario Bautista, citing his forward pressure, high volume striking, and youth. He believes José Aldo's age will eventually catch up to him, and that Bautista's pace and takedown threat will be too much. He notes Aldo looked good in his last fight but attributes that to Jonathan Martinez being gun-shy. He admits he is rooting for Aldo but thinks Bautista wins.

"I'm going to be picking Mario Batista here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
José Aldo

Big Brady picks José Aldo as an underdog, citing Aldo's elite takedown defense (91%) and superior striking. He believes Bautista will struggle to take Aldo down, and on the feet, Aldo should win exchanges. He notes Aldo looked great in his return against Jonathan Martinez and could even knock out Bautista, who has been finished before.

second round knockout
"I like uh I like Alo here to win this fight I think he could even knock out Mario Batista you know Batista he's hitable we've seen him hurt we've seen him knocked out Trevon Jones knocked him out I …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
José Aldo

Cody picks Aldo, arguing that Aldo's recent win over Jonathan Martinez proved he still has it. He criticizes Bautista's resume, noting that his six-fight winning streak includes mostly low-level opponents. He believes Aldo's takedown defense and striking will be too much.

"I think I'm gonna go Jose Aldo"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Connor also picks Bautista, echoing Zane's reasoning. He highlights Bautista's ability to build momentum and his fearlessness in pressing offense, which could break Aldo's aura of invincibility. He notes that Aldo's later career losses came against fighters who pressured him relentlessly, and Bautista has the right mix of skills to do the same.

Same odds commentary.
"I think batista looks like a much tougher opponent. Yeah, absolutely does."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
José Aldo

Daniel Vreeland picks José Aldo, citing his legendary takedown defense and counter-striking. He notes that Aldo's boxing has improved and that Bautista's high volume will leave openings for Aldo's counters. Vreeland also mentions Aldo's performance against Jonathan Martinez and his ability to stuff all 16 takedowns from Merab Dvalishvili. He expects Aldo to win the first two rounds and coast to a decision.

"I think Jose is gonna outclass this guy the first two rounds and Coast the last round win a 2928 unanimous decision"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
José Aldo

Daniel Vreeland picks José Aldo as a dog. He notes that Aldo still looks great and has only lost to the very top of the division. He points out that Mario Bautista's wins are against lower-level competition like Bonito Lopez and Ricky Simone, who is one-dimensional. Vreeland emphasizes that Aldo's takedown defense is elite, having stuffed 16 straight takedowns from Merab Dvalishvili, and that Bautista won't be able to wrestle him. He compares Bautista to Jonathan Martinez, whom Aldo easily beat, and believes Aldo is still above that level.

"I'm going Aldo too uh I can't I couldn't believe it uh but going Jose Aldo too I think for me you know like you said I think what you look at with Mario Batista's record like yeah he's looked …"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
José Aldo

Jeff Fox picks José Aldo. He notes that Aldo is still winning and has only lost to the very top of the division. He believes Aldo's defensive skills, especially his takedown defense, have not declined. Fox thinks Aldo has another win in him and likes the dog money at +120.

"I got to go first I can't fade it Jose Aldo surprisingly he just still looks damn good"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Mario Bautista

The host believes Bautista is a more dangerous opponent than Aldo's last fight. He thinks Bautista will land strikes from distance and crack Aldo a few times, preventing Aldo from getting into his groove. He notes that Bautista's opponents often grapple with him, but Aldo doesn't do that, and Bautista is closer to his prime while Aldo at 38 may be a step behind. He suggests Bautista could even get a finish.

"I think Bautista will do a good enough job in terms of Landing his strikes from distance and I think he'll be able to crack Aldo a few times which will keep Aldo from getting to his game"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Paul leans toward Bautista, citing his improvements and volume striking. He thinks Bautista can outwork Aldo over three rounds, though he acknowledges the risk of getting starstruck. He sees value at minus 130.

"Bautista definitely has my interests and potentially my money"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
José Aldo

The MMA Guru picks José Aldo over Mario Bautista, citing Aldo's superior striking, power, and body work. He questions Bautista's level of competition, noting close fights with Deonte Blackshear and Ricky Simon. He believes Aldo's physicality and takedown defense will be too much, and that Aldo's body shots will be effective at altitude. He predicts Aldo wins a decision, surviving a tricky third round.

"I'm going to go with Jose Aldo over Mario Batista never doubt Aldo against the B"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Zane picks Bautista, though not confidently. He believes Bautista's relentless pressure, refusal to accept defeated positions, and ability to mix in takedowns could overwhelm the 38-year-old Aldo. He notes that Aldo has been taken down by lesser wrestlers and that Bautista's grappling threat could open up striking. However, he acknowledges Aldo's power and counter-striking make it a risky pick.

Aldo opened at +149, now +124. Bautista opened at -168, now -139.
"I think i'm gonna pick batista though. I'm picking him too. I don't feel confident at all. I don't feel good about it. I don't feel confident in it. No, like I think he's gonna lose."
WIN vs Ricky Simón
DEC R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2 · Jan 13, 2024
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley · Aug 19, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mario Bautista 0 90 of 174 51% 108 of 192 4 of 7 57% 0 0 3:00
Da'Mon Blackshear 0 79 of 137 57% 102 of 161 2 of 10 20% 1 0 4:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mario Bautista 0 29 of 48 60% 38 of 57 4 of 5 80% 0 0 2:28
Da'Mon Blackshear 0 19 of 25 76% 27 of 33 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:19
2 Mario Bautista 0 40 of 74 54% 44 of 78 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:27
Da'Mon Blackshear 0 32 of 67 47% 34 of 69 0 of 5 0% 0 0 1:01
3 Mario Bautista 0 21 of 52 40% 26 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Da'Mon Blackshear 0 28 of 45 62% 41 of 59 2 of 5 40% 0 0 2:44
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mario Bautista 90 of 174 51% 48 of 123 22 of 30 20 of 21 52 of 129 37 of 42 1 of 3
Da'Mon Blackshear 79 of 137 57% 48 of 103 21 of 22 10 of 12 51 of 101 24 of 30 4 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mario Bautista 29 of 48 60% 11 of 27 11 of 14 7 of 7 13 of 28 15 of 18 1 of 2
Da'Mon Blackshear 19 of 25 76% 11 of 17 3 of 3 5 of 5 13 of 18 6 of 7 0 of 0
2 Mario Bautista 40 of 74 54% 25 of 54 7 of 11 8 of 9 23 of 56 17 of 18 0 of 0
Da'Mon Blackshear 32 of 67 47% 22 of 55 8 of 9 2 of 3 21 of 53 11 of 14 0 of 0
3 Mario Bautista 21 of 52 40% 12 of 42 4 of 5 5 of 5 16 of 45 5 of 6 0 of 1
Da'Mon Blackshear 28 of 45 62% 15 of 31 10 of 10 3 of 4 17 of 30 7 of 9 4 of 6
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 12, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Big Brady picks Mario Bautista to win by first-round knockout, despite hating the line. He notes Bautista has been dominating on the ground but doubts he can take down and submit Cody Garbrandt, who has excellent takedown defense. Instead, Brady believes Bautista will knock Garbrandt out on the feet, as Garbrandt's chin is compromised and he fights cautiously.

win by KO, round 1
"I just see Mario Batista knocking him out just touching the chin at some point... first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Cody thinks Bautista is the better fighter with superior wrestling and striking, but notes Blackshear is durable and has never been finished. He expects Bautista to win a decision, possibly fading in later rounds. He suggests live betting Blackshear after the first round if Bautista starts fast.

over on fight duration; Bautista by decision
"I still gotta take Batista again I just think he is the better Fighter the what ifs of what if this thing gets extended well listen I'm sure he was ready for that"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Aug 17, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Daniel Levi slightly leans toward Mario Bautista, citing his body work, aggression, and pace. He thinks Bautista's pressure will pull him away in the second and third rounds, leading to a decision win. However, he acknowledges that Blackshear is a live dog with plus money, and that the quick turnaround for Blackshear could be a factor. Levi calls it a dog-or-pass situation and respects Blackshear's skills.

Dog or pass; Bautista by decision
"I'm just going to slightly lean towards Bautista... I think the pace of Bautista is going to kind of pull him away in the second and third rounds and kind of get him this decision"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Aug 18, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Mario Bautista

Lucrative James picks Mario Bautista but with hesitation, citing Blackshear's tough weight cut twice in two weeks and Bautista's high pace. He admits he has been wrong on Blackshear twice before, so he is not fully confident. He expects a decision win for Bautista.

"I'm picking Batista to win and I think Batista probably gets it done by decision"
Jin Soo Son - Fight History
LOSS vs Mario Bautista
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: dos Anjos vs. Edwards · Jul 20, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mario Bautista 0 129 of 248 52% 179 of 301 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:55
Jin Soo Son 0 95 of 200 47% 106 of 213 2 of 5 40% 0 0 1:38
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mario Bautista 0 27 of 77 35% 38 of 88 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:20
Jin Soo Son 0 29 of 54 53% 29 of 55 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:14
2 Mario Bautista 0 42 of 61 68% 64 of 84 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:35
Jin Soo Son 0 24 of 48 50% 30 of 55 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:16
3 Mario Bautista 0 60 of 110 54% 77 of 129 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jin Soo Son 0 42 of 98 42% 47 of 103 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:08
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mario Bautista 129 of 248 52% 92 of 198 27 of 39 10 of 11 104 of 220 25 of 28 0 of 0
Jin Soo Son 95 of 200 47% 74 of 172 14 of 19 7 of 9 78 of 182 17 of 18 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mario Bautista 27 of 77 35% 14 of 54 6 of 15 7 of 8 25 of 75 2 of 2 0 of 0
Jin Soo Son 29 of 54 53% 23 of 47 0 of 0 6 of 7 27 of 51 2 of 3 0 of 0
2 Mario Bautista 42 of 61 68% 35 of 54 7 of 7 0 of 0 26 of 43 16 of 18 0 of 0
Jin Soo Son 24 of 48 50% 20 of 43 3 of 3 1 of 2 17 of 41 7 of 7 0 of 0
3 Mario Bautista 60 of 110 54% 43 of 90 14 of 17 3 of 3 53 of 102 7 of 8 0 of 0
Jin Soo Son 42 of 98 42% 31 of 82 11 of 16 0 of 0 34 of 90 8 of 8 0 of 0
LOSS vs Petr Yan
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs. Oleinik · Sep 15, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Petr Yan 0 100 of 232 43% 115 of 249 0 of 1 0% 0 1 0:13
Jin Soo Son 0 58 of 220 26% 63 of 226 1 of 7 14% 0 0 2:35
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Petr Yan 0 21 of 53 39% 27 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jin Soo Son 0 18 of 66 27% 22 of 70 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:43
2 Petr Yan 0 30 of 64 46% 38 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:13
Jin Soo Son 0 16 of 63 25% 17 of 65 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:52
3 Petr Yan 0 49 of 115 42% 50 of 116 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Jin Soo Son 0 24 of 91 26% 24 of 91 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Petr Yan 100 of 232 43% 87 of 216 10 of 13 3 of 3 73 of 195 20 of 29 7 of 8
Jin Soo Son 58 of 220 26% 51 of 203 4 of 13 3 of 4 47 of 201 7 of 13 4 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Petr Yan 21 of 53 39% 15 of 45 4 of 6 2 of 2 12 of 43 9 of 10 0 of 0
Jin Soo Son 18 of 66 27% 13 of 58 3 of 5 2 of 3 14 of 59 4 of 7 0 of 0
2 Petr Yan 30 of 64 46% 27 of 61 3 of 3 0 of 0 20 of 50 3 of 6 7 of 8
Jin Soo Son 16 of 63 25% 14 of 57 1 of 5 1 of 1 11 of 54 1 of 3 4 of 6
3 Petr Yan 49 of 115 42% 45 of 110 3 of 4 1 of 1 41 of 102 8 of 13 0 of 0
Jin Soo Son 24 of 91 26% 24 of 88 0 of 3 0 of 0 22 of 88 2 of 3 0 of 0